TSMC čeká páté čtvrtletí v řadě s rekordním ziskem díky silné poptávce po AI čipech. Tržby za druhé čtvrtletí vzrostly meziročně o 36 % na nové maximum.
SummaryCompaniesNet profit forecast to jump 59% to $20 billion in second quarterEarnings call scheduled for Thursday at 0600 GMTTSMC benefiting more than other chip foundries from AI boomSecond-quarter revenue rose 36% to new record, TSMC said MondayTAIPEI, July 14 (Reuters) - TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced AI chips, will likely notch a fifth consecutive quarter of record earnings, driven by booming AI infrastructure spending.
Analysts say demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's (TSMC) (2330.TW), opens new tab 3-nanometre and 2-nanometre process technologies for AI chips, as well as for its advanced chip packaging technology, CoWoS, remains strong.
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That has catapulted Asia's most valuable company, a key supplier to Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, to new heights. Its market capitalisation is now nearly double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab at around $1.97 trillion.
On Thursday, TSMC is expected to report a 59% surge in net profit to T$632.6 billion ($19.65 billion) for the second quarter, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 18 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.
An earnings call at which it will provide third-quarter and updated full-year guidance is scheduled for 0600 GMT.
Any result above T$572.5 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income, and its 10th consecutive quarter of profit growth.
On Monday, it posted a 36% year-on-year rise in second-quarter revenue, ahead of market forecasts and a new record high.
"TSMC’s strong second-quarter revenue shows AI demand remains healthy, driving demand for its advanced chip production and CoWoS packaging," said Dan Nystedt, research analyst at TriOrient, an Asia-based private investment firm.
People stand behind a sign with a TSMC logo during TSMC's third quarter earnings conference in Taipei October 25, 2012. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) forecast two quarters... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
Analysts broadly expect TSMC to raise its full-year revenue growth outlook.
Haas Liu, Bank of America's Asia semiconductor analyst, said in a research note that supply chain checks suggest the AI demand pipeline remains strong, and that TSMC could raise the full-year outlook from its current guidance of "above 30%" year-on-year.
Another key focus for investors will be whether TSMC raises its capital spending outlook, viewed as an important gauge of management's confidence in the durability of AI demand.
On its last earnings call in April, the company said 2026 capital expenditure would be at the high end of its earlier guidance of $52 billion to $56 billion.
While some analysts, including Nystedt, expect TSMC to retain that guidance, Liu forecasts the company could raise capital spending to about $58 billion, citing tight equipment supply and aggressive capacity expansion by memory makers including Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab, Micron Technology (MU.O), opens new tab and SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab.
TSMC is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona.
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares have gained 56% so far this year, slightly higher than the 54% rise for the broader market (.TWII), opens new tab.
($1 = 32.1880 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Kevin Buckland
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Ben joined Reuters as a company news reporter in Shanghai in 2003 before moving to Beijing in 2005 to cover Chinese politics and diplomacy. In 2019 Ben was appointed the Taiwan bureau chief covering everything from elections and entertainment to semiconductors.
Key Takeaways Taiwan Semiconductor expects Q2 growth from AI-driven HPC demand, with results due July 16. TSM's HPC was 61% of Q1 revenues, with AI demand still exceeding available capacity.TSM reported record Q2 monthly revenues, pointing to strong demand for advanced process technologies. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM - Free Report) or TSMC is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 16, before market opens. The results are expected to reflect continued strength in its High-Performance Computing (HPC) platform, driven by robust AI chip demand from hyperscalers and leading semiconductor customers.
The company's advanced process technologies, particularly the 3nm family and growing demand for advanced packaging solutions are also expected to support another quarter of solid growth. Meanwhile, the smartphone business is likely to remain healthy on seasonal demand, though AI-related HPC is expected to remain the primary growth engine.
Check out our analysis to determine whether TSM stock is worth buying ahead of its second-quarter earnings.
Q2 Expectation for HPCDuring its first-quarter 2026 announcement, TSMC provided guidance for its second-quarter revenues in the band of $39.0-$40.2 billion, implying roughly 10% sequential growth at the midpoint, supported by continued strength in leading-edge process technologies. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is pegged at $39.63 billion. Management also projected gross margin of 65.5%-67.5% and operating margin of 56.5%-58.5%, reflecting sustained high-capacity utilization and ongoing cost-improvement initiatives despite dilution from overseas fabs.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The biggest driver is expected to remain the HPC platform, which has emerged as TSMC's largest business. In the first quarter, HPC revenues climbed 20% sequentially and accounted for 61% of total revenues, far surpassing smartphones at 26%. The company attributed the momentum to robust AI-related demand, noting that the shift from generative AI toward agentic AI is increasing token consumption and computational requirements, thereby boosting demand for leading-edge silicon. The company also emphasized that cloud service providers continue to provide a strong demand outlook. With trends remaining the same, we expect HPC once again to be the top performer in the second quarter of 2026.
Importantly, TSMC indicated that AI- and HPC-related demand remains supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. During the first-quarter announcement, the company repeatedly stated that demand for HPC AI applications continues to exceed available capacity, prompting the company to raise its 2026 capital spending outlook toward the upper end of its $52-$56 billion range. TSM also announced an expanded global 3-nanometer capacity plan, including additional capacity in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan, while continuing to convert 5-nanometer tools to support N3 production. The company said these investments are primarily intended to meet robust demand from HPC AI customers. This should get reflected through the second-quarter results.
TSMC's monthly revenue updates from April to June pointed to sustained demand for advanced process technologies, while management's second-quarter guidance called for sequential revenue growth. Particularly, the company reported strong June 2026 monthly revenues, resulting in record second-quarter revenues on a monthly-sales basis and indicating that demand for advanced process technologies remained robust. This should get reflected through in the second-quarter numbers.
Earnings Whispers for TSM StockPer our proven model, stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, have a higher chance of beating estimates, which is not the case here:
TSM’s Earnings ESP: TSMC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TSM’s Zacks Rank: TSMC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
TSMC Price TargetBased on short-term price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average price target for TSMC comes to $463.92. This represents an increase of 6.87% from the last closing price.
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Competitive PositioningIntel (INTC - Free Report) : Intel is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23. Demand across its Client Computing and Data Center & AI businesses is expected to have remained supportive in the second quarter, while Intel Foundry is anticipated to benefit from a higher EUV wafer mix and continued customer engagement. However, heavy investments in leading-edge manufacturing, process technology development and global fab expansion are likely to continue to weigh on near-term profitability. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #1 with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%
Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) : Its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results are expected to benefit from sustained demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking products, supported by ongoing hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure. Growth in AI semiconductor revenues is likely to remain the primary catalyst, while performance across its non-AI semiconductor and infrastructure software segments could influence the pace of overall revenue and earnings growth. The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Final TakeTSMC remains well-positioned ahead of its second-quarter results, supported by resilient AI-driven HPC demand, industry-leading advanced process technologies and expectations of record quarterly revenues. While the lack of a positive ESP tempers near-term earnings beat expectations, long-term fundamentals remain compelling. Investors may consider buying the stock with a measured approach ahead of the earnings release.
Hyperscalery letos utratí za kapitálové výdaje asi 750 miliard USD, což dál podporuje poptávku po AI čipech pro datová centra. Z toho těží hlavně Micron Technology a Taiwan Semiconductor.
In the third quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts were trying to estimate just how much the technology hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and others) would spend in 2026 to build out data centers.
Their estimate at the time: $465 billion.
That was supposed to account for all the monumental spending on artificial intelligence(AI) infrastructure. But even after they revised their estimate to $527 billion just three months later, they still missed the mark.
Hyperscalers now are forecast to devote about $750 billion to capital expenditures (capex) this year -- and the number could go higher next year.
That's fantastic news for Micron Technology (MU 1.05%) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.55%), also called TSMC. These two companies are leading pick-and-shovel investments in the enormous AI data center build-out that's currently underway, and they could benefit for years to come. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
Hyperscalers can't get enough of Micron Technology's memory So called pick-and-shovel companies benefit from selling the tools that help other companies build what they need. In the current AI gold rush, Micron is a great pick-and-shovel play because it sells much-needed memory chips to tech companies.
With AI data center spending surging, hyperscalers are buying up as many memory processors as they can get. Artificial intelligence uses a lot of it, and that's driving memory prices higher and leading to much higher profits for Micron.
Consider that in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended May 28), Micron's sales jumped 345% to $41.5 billion, and adjusted earnings per share spiked more than 1,300% to $24.67. The company's management believes this growth isn't anywhere near finished yet. Just read what Micron Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said on the Q3 earnings call: "The memory industry has been structurally transformed by the proliferation of AI. We are only in the early innings of the significant innovation and productivity that can be unleashed in every part of the global economy over time."
And the company likely isn't exaggerating the shift toward long-term memory demand. Alphabet's capex spending will reach as much as $190 billion this year, and management said that next year's spending is likely to "significantly increase." In short, AI spending is still accelerating.
That's one of the reasons three analysts recently raised their price target for Micron stock to $1,500, representing a 51% increase from its current price.
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Taiwan Semiconductor could be the ultimate pick-and-shovel AI play As the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC is arguably one of the best ways for investors to play long-term demand in AI data center infrastructure. The company makes an estimated 70% of the world's processors and 90% of the most advanced processors (including those for AI).
This means that no matter which company leads the AI gold rush, TSMC benefits. If Nvidia loses ground to a competitor, Taiwan Semiconductor still wins. If Alphabet outpaces OpenAI and Anthropic to take the crown for the top AI model, TSMC still wins as long as they all need lots of processors.
And they all need lots of processors.
TSMC's revenue jumped about 41% in the first quarter to nearly $36 billion, and adjusted earnings (not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP) popped 58% to $3.49 per American depositary receipt (ADR). It's worth mentioning that TSMC's gross margin is very impressive, too, reaching 66% in the quarter and helping the company's bottom-line growth as processor demand heats up.
And more growth is likely on the way. Taiwan Semiconductor Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei said on the first-quarter earnings call: "The shift from generative AI and the query mode to agentic AI and the command and action mode is leading to another step up in the amount of tokens being consumed. This is driving the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading-edge silicon."
For investors looking to tap into the AI data center boom and benefit regardless of which hyperscaler leads the pack, Micron Technology and Taiwan Semiconductor are two fantastic choices right now.
Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
CANADA - 2026/07/03: In this photo illustration, the AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.
AMD (AMD) has nearly quadrupled its value in the last year, with its market capitalization nearing $900 billion.
The factors driving this surge are quite evident.
EPYC CPUs are capturing significant server market share from Intel (INTC), with proactive AI workloads fostering a structural recovery in CPU demand that extends beyond normal cycles. On the GPU front, the MI400 series represents the most formidable product AMD has ever released, so much so that its specifications compelled Nvidia (NVDA) to enhance memory bandwidth and power capacity just to maintain competitiveness. Commitments from hyperscalers are genuine and expanding, with Meta alone intending to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, all amidst over $700 billion in AI infrastructure capital expenditures pledged by hyperscalers this year.
The bullish outlook is credible.
The chips are increasingly attractive. The clientele is dedicated. The CPU segment is concurrently experiencing a structural rebound. With the stock trading at over 70x projected 2026 earnings, the market is aware of all these factors. (See AMD valuation multiples)
What it might be neglecting is an issue unrelated to demand.
The Constraint Is PhysicalIn contrast to conventional CPUs, AI accelerators achieve a significant portion of their performance through the close integration of processing dies and high-bandwidth memory. Advanced packaging is essential for facilitating that integration. Specifically, TSMC's CoWoS technology is what enables the binding of chiplets into a complete AI accelerator. Without it, the silicon in a fabrication plant is essentially useless. Presently, no other manufacturer can provide advanced packaging at a level comparable to TSMC's leading edge. TSMC's CEO informed shareholders on June 4, 2026, that CoWoS capacity remains exceptionally limited and fully booked through 2026, with lead times varying from 52 to 78 weeks.
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This is not a fleeting bottleneck. The machinery necessary for expansion requires years for acquisition and installation, indicating that the limitation will mainly remain fixed for the upcoming years.
Evaluating how this limited capacity is allocated reveals that Nvidia commands approximately 60% of the overall CoWoS production, around 595,000 wafers, and has already secured more than half of TSMC's expansion capacity for 2026-2027. The top three clients together account for over 85% of total output. AMD possesses about 105,000 wafers, roughly 11% of total need. However, in AI, the scarcity is no longer in demand. It resides in packaging capacity.
Intel has directed substantial investments towards developing a foundry business, which has contributed to the stock's appreciation. The more pressing question is whether Intel's capacity is supported by committed external clients.
AMD Is Competing With Itself For What Limited Capacity ExistsAMD's collaboration with TSMC encompasses both SoIC-X and CoWoS-L packaging across its complete data center range, including CPUs and GPUs. These advanced packaging solutions are employed in the assembly of AMD's most intricate server processors and AI accelerators. The Venice EPYC CPU, which is transitioning to 2nm, shares the same restricted resource pool as the MI400 GPU. Each EPYC slot utilized cannot be allocated to an Instinct GPU. Thus, AMD is allocating capacity between its two rapidly expanding product lines at the same time.
Nvidia does not experience this issue. Its CoWoS allocation is dedicated to one product family. More critically, packaging capacity is reserved several years in advance, which means AMD cannot simply acquire additional capacity if demand for the MI400 surpasses expectations. AMD is the only significant entity simultaneously scaling both its server CPU and AI GPU franchises through the same bottleneck.
The ConclusionAI investors frequently engage in discussions about chips, benchmarks, and clients. For AMD, a more crucial question may be whether it can acquire adequate advanced packaging capacity to convert that demand into shipments.
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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM 0.55%), the world's largest contract chipmaker, builds the most advanced processors on the planet for nearly everyone that matters, including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Apple. So when it reports second-quarter results this week, its numbers will say as much about those customers as about TSMC itself.
Here's what I'll be watching, and why each figure matters well beyond Taiwan.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why one company's report moves the whole complex Because TSMC manufactures the chips its customers design, its revenue is a direct measure of how many high-end processors are actually getting built, not just ordered. If Nvidia's accelerators and AMD's chips are flying out the door, it tends to show up in TSMC's factories first.
The setup is strong. In the first quarter of 2026, TSMC's revenue rose about 41% year over year to $35.9 billion, and its gross margin reached an impressive 66.2%.
Management then guided for second-quarter revenue of $39 billion to $40.2 billion, which would be roughly 32% growth from a year earlier. It has also said it expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow more than 30% in dollar terms, driven by AI and high-performance computing.
So TSMC heads into this report with real momentum. Is the AI build-out still accelerating, or is it finally starting to cool?
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3 numbers to watch on July 16 First, revenue and the next forecast. Watch whether second-quarter revenue lands at the high end of guidance, and pay even closer attention to the outlook for the third quarter. A strong forecast would signal that AI-chip demand is holding up into the second half of the year. A cautious one could be the first real crack. TSMC's forecasts have been reliable, so its own view of the next quarter carries real weight.
Second, gross margin. A 66% margin is remarkable for a company that runs factories, and it reflects genuine pricing power. But TSMC is ramping its cutting-edge 2-nanometer process, and brand-new manufacturing nodes are expensive early on. If margins hold near current levels, it tells you TSMC can manage early node costs without much margin pressure. Apple is reportedly expected to have its next iPHone chips built on that 2-nanometer process.
Third, the 2026 capital-spending plan. This may be the most important number of all. TSMC spent about $11 billion on capital expenditures in the first quarter alone, and its full-year plan is the industry's clearest signal of how much AI capacity is on the way.
That budget now runs into the tens of billions of dollars a year, rivaling the biggest spenders in all of tech. If management raises the outlook again, it is effectively betting that demand keeps climbing for years to come. If it holds the line, that caution would ripple across every AI chip stock.
Put it together, and TSMC's report is really a status check on the entire AI trade. Nvidia and AMD can't sell chips TSMC doesn't build, and Apple's next iPhone reportedly leans on TSMC's newest process. So, in a very real sense, TSMC's factories are the bottleneck for the whole AI hardware supply chain.
Strong numbers and a confident spending plan would reassure investors that the boom has room to run. Weak ones would land on the whole group at once.
So how should investors approach the stock heading into the report? Carefully. I wouldn't buy or sell TSMC on a two-day move around an earnings report, and predicting which way a single quarter breaks is a losing game.
But there's a bigger picture worth keeping in mind. At about $437 as of this writing, roughly 22 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, TSMC isn't valued nearly as aggressively as some of the AI names that depend on it. And it even pays a modest dividend, a rarity among AI-exposed chip stocks.
For long-term investors, TSMC looks like one of the more reasonable ways to own the AI build-out. July 16 is simply a chance to check whether the thesis is still on track, and I'll be watching the capital-spending line first.
TSMC oznámila ve 2. čtvrtletí rekordní tržby ve výši 1,27 bilionu NT$ po meziročním růstu o 36 %, nad odhady trhu. Tahounem byl silný zájem o aplikace umělé inteligence.
The TSMC logo in this illustration taken June 11, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
TAIPEI, July 13 (Reuters) - TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported on Monday second-quarter revenue that rose 36% from a year earlier to a record high on surging interest in artificial intelligence applications.
Revenue in the April-June period of this year came in at T$1.27 trillion ($39.62 billion), according to Reuters calculations, slightly above a T$1.264 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) (2330.TW), opens new tab, is a major supplier to companies including Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab.
On its last earnings call in April, the company predicted second-quarter revenue of between $39 billion and $40.2 billion. The company gives its forecast only in U.S. dollars and not Taiwan dollars.
For June alone, TSMC reported that revenue rose 67.9% year-on-year to T$442.68 billion, which was up 6.2% compared with the previous month.
The data was originally due last Friday, but it was delayed due to the impending arrival of Typhoon Bavi, which shut financial markets in Taipei that day.
TSMC, Asia's most valuable publicly listed company with a market capitalisation of $1.955 trillion, did not provide any details or forward guidance in its brief revenue statement.
It is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday, when it will also update its outlook and plans for the current quarter and the rest of the year.
TSMC is expected to report a 58.8% on-year rise in second-quarter net profit, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate.
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares closed up 1% on Monday ahead of the release of the sales data. The broader market (.TWII), opens new tab closed flat.
The company's shares have risen 57% so far this year, in line with the broader market.
($1 = 32.0530 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Jamie Freed
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 67.9% year-on-year rise in its June sales on Monday, ahead of its second-quarter earnings release later this week.
For the first half of 2026, TSMC's total revenue reached 2.4 trillion new Taiwan dollars ($74.99 billion), representing a 35.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025. TSMC reported June revenue of NT$ 442.68 billion — a 6.2% increase from the previous month.
The Taiwanese chip giant's shares were trading 1% higher Monday.
The company' growth has been boosted by demand for artificial intelligence chips and infrastructure investments.
The world's largest contract chipmaker manufactures semiconductors for a wide range of applications, spanning from smartphones to high-performance AI computing systems, with key clients including U.S. technology leaders such as AI darling Nvidia, Apple and Advanced Micro Devices.
TSMC plans to add two advanced chip packaging plants in the Chiayi Science Park in southern Taiwan, Reuters reported, citing remarks made by Taiwan's National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen on Sunday. Wu noted that the site's first facility is already in mass production, with the second expected to begin shortly.
TSMC, which commands a 73% share of the global pure-foundry market — chips manufactured for clients — in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from Counterpoint Research, is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 16.
TSMC přidá v Chiayi Science Park dvě další pokročilé závody na pouzdření čipů. Park má po spuštění všech čtyř továren dosáhnout roční produkce přes 300 miliard TWD a vytvořit více než 9 000 pracovních míst.
A general view of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) fabrication plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, June 7, 2025. REUTERS/Ann Wang Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
TAIPEI, July 13 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) (2330.TW), opens new tab will add two advanced chip packaging plants in the Chiayi Science Park, the island's science and technology minister said on Sunday.
Located in southern Taiwan, the Chiayi Science Park is being developed as one of TSMC's major advanced chip-packaging hubs.
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TSMC's first advanced chip packaging plant at the Chiayi Science Park has already entered mass production and its second plant is expected to begin mass production soon, National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen said at a groundbreaking ceremony.
"Today's groundbreaking marks the start of the second phase, which will include a third and fourth plant," Wu said, adding that the park is expected to generate more than 300 billion Taiwan dollars ($9.35 billion) in annual production value and create more than 9,000 jobs once all four plants are up and running.
TSMC is rapidly expanding its advanced chip-packaging capacity, including its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate technology, as demand from artificial intelligence chip designers like Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab continues to outstrip supply.
($1 = 32.0970 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Japonský Rapidus chce od roku 2027 vyrábět 2nm čipy za asi 21 000 USD za jeden wafer, tedy pod cenou TSMC. TSMC má ale 73% podíl na trhu a letos začalo 2nm čipy vyrábět.
Throughout the massive growth of artificial intelligence and the infrastructure that powers it, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.04%) has been a consistent winner. TSMC, as it’s known, is the world’s largest chip foundry, producing advanced semiconductors for Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and many others.
TSMC holds a dominant 73% market share in the global foundry market, with second-place Samsung at only 7%. But a Japanese company, Rapidus, is taking aim at TSMC, with plans to mass-produce advanced 2 nm chips while undercutting TSMC on price.
TSMC started producing 2 nm chips this year, and they’re reportedly priced at $30,000 per wafer. Rapidus, which is reportedly in talks with more than 60 companies, would reportedly price its 2 nm process at about $21,000 per wafer, but the company doesn’t plan to enter production until 2027.
Can Rapidus really pose a threat to TSMC’s dominance? I don’t think so, and here’s why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
TSMC's track record can’t be touchedIt’s hard to overstate the impact that TSMC has had on the industry. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly praised the company -- in a 2025 news conference, he was nearly gushing: "They are a world-class foundry and support customers of diverse needs. You can't overstate the magic that is TSMC," he said. And during a visit to Taiwan, he called TSMC “one of the greatest companies in the history of humanity.”
One reason for TSMC’s dominance is its open innovation platform, which the company uses to collaborate with customers in their chip designs. TSMC says that through its platform, the company has been involved with 85% of global start-up semiconductor prototypes. In all, TSMC produced more than 12,600 different products in 2025 using 305 separate process technologies.
TSMC also excels at making chips with more advanced process nodes, meaning that designers can pack more of them on individual chips to make them more powerful. In the first quarter, 25% of TSMC’s revenue came from building 3 nm chips and 36% came from building 5 nm chips. That’s a big change from 2023, when only 6% of TSMC’s revenue came from 3 nm chips and 33% came from 5 nm chips. It hasn’t yet reported 2 nm sales, but those will likely be discussed when TSMC files its second-quarter earnings on July 16.
TSMC’s revenue in the first quarter was $35.9 billion, up 40.6% from a year ago. And it forecasts revenue between $39 billion and $40.2 billion, with an operating profit margin between 56.5% and 58.5%.
The challenges facing RapidusLaunched in 2022 with the backing of the Japanese government, Rapidus will be hard-pressed to break through TSMC’s dominance. Not even established chipmakers like Samsung or Intel have been able to gain meaningful market share.
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Rapidus has only a pilot line in operation and plans to open a second fab next year as it ramps up. But it still needs to prove it can manufacture at scale while making a reasonable profit. Management already seems to be hedging on the possible price, stating in a news release that “semiconductor prices vary significantly depending on the specifications of the products ordered by semiconductor design companies and are subject to fluctuations due to factors such as exchange rates.”
So, even if Rapidus can match or just slightly undercut TSMC prices, would major companies have an incentive to switch suppliers? It’s unlikely.
Top semiconductor companies don’t choose their manufacturing partners based on price alone. TSMC has proven itself a reliable partner that delivers high-quality work at scale -- work that has helped Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and other chip companies soar to new heights. TSMC will have more than a year of mass-producing 2 nm chips before Rapidus can even get started.
Even with the backing of the Japanese government, it’s highly unlikely that Rapidus will pose a threat to TSMC, and investors shouldn’t be concerned about its undercutting strategy.
TSMC, klíčový dodavatel společnosti Nvidia, oznámí 16. července výsledky a trh čeká na signál, zda poptávka po AI čipech zůstává silná. Firma ovládá 90 % pokročilé výroby polovodičů a zvyšuje výhled kapitálových výdajů na 52–56 miliard USD.
Key Takeaways TSMC reportedly captures 90% of the entire advanced semiconductor manufacturing industry. Nvidia and other tech giants rely on TSMC to manufacture their cutting-edge AI chips. TSM has crushed Tech over the last 20 years and the past 12 months, yet it looks like a value stock. Tech investors and Wall Street are waiting for Taiwan Semiconductor or TSMC to kick-start the busy part of the second quarter earnings season when it reports on Thursday, July 16.
The AI chip manufacturing powerhouse will provide Wall Street with critical insights into what’s next on the artificial intelligence front.
TSMC might have to provide robust guidance to reassure investors that the AI hyperscalers’ capex spending spree remains in full force after Meta said recently that it would begin selling excess AI computing power to customers.
Where the Stock Market Sits Heading into Q2 Earnings SeasonThe stock market has cooled down heading into the unofficial start of Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 14, when JPMorgan and other big Wall Street banks report.
The Nasdaq is trading roughly where it was two months ago after pulling back from its early June highs. The bulls are fighting to hold their ground at the tech-heavy index’s 50-day moving average and its early May breakout levels. They did just that on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq 1.3% higher to overtake its 50-day again.
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The bulls are banking on another impressive earnings season from big tech and beyond. Total S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 24% YoY based on the most recent Zacks data—up from 14% in early January and 21.2% in early June.
On the technology front, total tech sector earnings are expected to grow 48.5% in Q2 on 28.0% higher revenues. Taiwan Semiconductor’s report on July 16 will provide Wall Street essential insights into what to expect from AI companies, including Nvidia, and the entire tech sector in the second half.
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Is TSMC the Best Long-Term Buy and Hold Stock on Wall Street?Semiconductors are arguably the most complex and critical technologies that humans have ever created. Chips are the lifeblood of the entire technology-driven economy and the foundation of the AI age. This is why Nvidia, Micron, and tons of other semiconductor stocks have skyrocketed over the past five years and in the first half of 2026.
The all-important role that semiconductors play in tech and the economy is why investors must consider buying the company that physically builds and manufactures almost all of the cutting-edge semiconductors for Nvidia and nearly every other firm competing to win the AI arms race.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM - Free Report) is perhaps the most important technology company in the world, building and manufacturing semiconductors used for AI innovations and much more. (Note: Taiwan Semi or TSMC trades under the ticker TSM in the U.S.)
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TSMC reportedly captures 60% of the entire global chip foundry market and 90% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan Semi has spent decades carving out what’s now a nearly impenetrable moat around its leading-edge chip-building business.
Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) relies on TSMC to manufacture its most sophisticated AI chips, as do other tech titans and Mag 7 companies. TSMC said it “served 534 customers and manufactured 12,682 products for various applications” in 2025.
TSMC was founded in 1987 on a simple but revolutionary idea dubbed the “pure-play foundry” model. The tech company decided it would focus exclusively on manufacturing advanced semiconductors for other companies, never aiming to design or sell its own branded products.
This founding principle helped Taiwan Semi build trust with customers like Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm. Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , Nvidia and others rely on TSMC because of its expertise. On top of that, NVDA executives and others can sleep easy at night knowing that Taiwan Semi won’t compete against them.
As a result, TSMC attracted huge orders, invested heavily in cutting-edge technologies, growing into the world’s most dominant chip manufacturer through unmatched scale and expertise.
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It’s not hyperbolic to say that AI and technology growth and innovation would grind to a halt without TSMC. This is exactly why Taiwan Semi is addressing one of its only potential shortfalls: geopolitical fears by expanding its manufacturing footprint outside of Taiwan into the U.S., Japan, and elsewhere.
The company is actively building fabs in the U.S. Yet, in a sign of just how important and cutting-edge TSMC is, the Taiwan-based firm had to bring thousands of employees from the small island to the Arizona desert to help build the complex manufacturing plants.
The Chip Builder’s AI-Boosted Growth OutlookTaiwan Semi is ramping up its industry-leading 3-nanometer production to support the AI arms race. So-called advanced technologies made up 74% of its total wafer revenue in Q1 FY26, with 3-nanometer chips accounting for 25% of TSMC’s quarterly wafer sales.
The leading chip builder said earlier this year that it expects to grow its revenue by 30% in 2026 as part of a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~25% between 2024 and 2029.
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Taiwan Semi is projected to grow its revenue by 32% in FY26 and 27% next year to reach $205 billion in FY27, doubling its 2024 sales ($88 billion), based on Zacks estimates.
TSMC is projected to grow its adjusted EPS by 45% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, based on the most recent Zacks estimates. This growth outlook would see the firm post earnings of $19.50 per share next year, nearly quadrupling 2023’s EPS. TSMC’s upward earnings revisions earn it a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), and it’s beaten our quarterly estimate for five years running.
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Taiwan’s balance sheet is robust, with more cash and equivalents ($109 billion) than total liabilities ($86 billion). It is also churning out impressive free cash flow growth over the last several years. Its strong financial position helped TSM feel comfortable raising its 2026 capex guidance to $52-$56 billion, blowing away 2025's $40.9 billion.
Buy TSMC Now, Or Wait for a Pullback?The dividend-paying chip maker stock has soared ~5,000% in the past 20 years vs. Tech’s ~1,100%. TSM has ripped 340% higher in the past three years, including its Nvidia-crushing 90% charge in the trailing 12 months to trade near its recent highs.
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TSM is attempting to hold ground at its 50-day moving average heading into its Q2 earnings release. Some investors might want to buy the stock now before earnings in preparation for a possible breakout. Others might want to see if Taiwan Semi finally faces some healthy selling after its massive rally.
The stock market timing game is exceedingly difficult, meaning that most long-term investors should start a position in TSMC now and then add to it the next time it falls—which will happen at some point, there’s just no telling when. The stock hasn’t tested its 200-day moving average in over a year and it trades well above its 50-week.
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On the valuation front, Taiwan Semi trades in line with the Tech sector despite its outperformance. It also trades at a 27% discount to its 10-year highs at 24.9X forward earnings, which is far from a bubbly valuation.
TSMC ve čtvrtek zveřejní výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí; trh čeká tržby ve výši zhruba 40 miliard USD a sleduje hlavně výhled poptávky po AI a kapacity CoWoS.
INDIA - 2023/12/14: In this photo illustration, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd (TSMC) logo seen displayed on a mobile phone screen with the AI (artificial intelligence) revolution symbol in the background. (Photo Illustration by Idrees Abbas/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) reports second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 16, with its earnings conference scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Taipei time (2:00 a.m. ET). The numbers Wall Street is penciling in tell their own story about how far this AI cycle has already run. Consensus estimates call for revenue near $40 billion, up roughly 32% year-over-year, with earnings per ADR unit expected to rise more than 50% from a year ago. TSMC itself guided to revenue between $39.0 billion and $40.2 billion, with gross margin in a 65.5% to 67.5% range.
What makes this print more interesting than a routine beat-and-raise is not the top line. TSMC has cleared elevated bars all year, leading many to name it among the best AI infrastructure plays for 2026. The real question is what management says about the back half of the year, and whether the company is finally catching up to the tsunami of demand it has been chasing for two years.
What The Market Wants to HearInvestors will be listening for three things on the call.
First, whether TSMC lifts its full-year revenue growth guidance, which currently stands at "above 30%" in dollar terms. Citi and other sell-side shops expect an upward revision given management's April commentary about "extremely robust" AI demand. Second, whether the company raises its 2026 capital budget above the high end of its existing $52 billion to $56 billion range, which would signal even more urgency to add capacity. Third, and most closely watched, is an update on advanced packaging — specifically CoWoS. This technology binds logic chips to high-bandwidth memory and has become the true chokepoint in AI chip production.
There is a modest note of caution heading into the print. TSMC's combined April and May revenue grew about 24% year-over-year, short of the roughly 35% growth some investors had penciled in for the quarter, which has introduced some near-term jitters even as the longer-term growth story remains intact.
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At the Center of AI Infrastructure BuildoutIt is difficult to overstate how central TSMC has become to the infrastructure race now underway among the major cloud platforms. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) are together on pace to spend about $700 billion on capital expenditure this year, up roughly three-quarters from 2025.
The bulk of that money is flowing into AI data centers, custom silicon and the GPUs that TSMC alone has the capacity to manufacture at scale. Nearly every leading AI accelerator — Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPUs, AMD's (NASDAQ: AMD) MI-series chips, and the custom ASICs designed in-house by Google and Amazon — is fabricated on TSMC's advanced nodes and finished in TSMC's packaging lines. That concentration is precisely why TSMC's order book is a telltale gauge of AI infrastructure demand more broadly, arguably more informative than any single hyperscaler's earnings call.
The Bottleneck Has Moved from Silicon to PackagingFor most of the last two decades, the constraint in this industry was the ability to shrink transistors. That is no longer true. TSMC's 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer processes are running at high yields. The harder problem now is CoWoS advanced packaging, which stacks logic dies with high-bandwidth memory into the modules that actually ship inside an AI server. Nvidia alone has reportedly secured roughly 60% of TSMC's CoWoS output for 2026, leaving other GPU and ASIC makers to scrap for what remains. Some customers have reportedly turned to Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) to supplement capacity TSMC cannot provide.
TSMC has responded with one of the more aggressive capacity buildouts in its history, targeting a compound annual growth rate above 80% for CoWoS capacity between 2022 and 2027, adding packaging campuses in Tainan and Chiayi, and planning a packaging hub in Arizona to serve U.S. customers directly. Industry trackers estimate the gap between packaging supply and demand, which ran as wide as 20% earlier this year, could narrow to roughly 10% by the end of 2026 as this new capacity comes online. This means that packaging, not wafer starts, is likely to remain the variable that determines how quickly new AI hardware actually reaches customers through the rest of this year.
The Great Semiconductor Onshoring ExperimentThe risks here are less about demand, which by every account remains extraordinary, and more about execution. TSMC's own disclosures flag U.S. export controls, evolving tariff policy, and customer concentration as ongoing risks to monitor.
The Arizona expansion, now framed as a $465 billion, eleven-fab program tied to a U.S.-Taiwan tariff framework, has become the highest-profile test case for reshoring chip manufacturing in America at scale. Taiwan's National Development Council has pointed to challenges including water availability in the Arizona desert, visa delays for the Taiwanese engineers rotating through on assignment, and long-term power supply as the practical constraints management is managing in real time. None of these are new problems for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, but the scale of what TSMC is attempting in Arizona means any one of them could push a fab timeline by quarters or even years.
Consumer Device InflationThe other thread worth watching is pricing.
TSMC has told major customers, including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nvidia and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), to expect a fourth consecutive year of price increases starting in 2026, with hikes reportedly running 3% to 10% depending on the node and application, and now extending beyond 2-nanometer and 3-nanometer wafers to nodes as mature as 7-nanometer. A 2-nanometer wafer now runs upward of $30,000, more than 50% above the cost of a 3-nanometer wafer, and TSMC has guided to gross margin dilution of 2 to 3 percentage points this year from the 2-nanometer ramp and overseas expansion, even as pricing offsets much of that pressure.
For now, TSMC's biggest AI customers appear able to absorb these increases. Nvidia's margins remain wide enough to pass costs through, and demand for accelerators has shown little price sensitivity.
But further downstream, the picture is different. Smartphone and PC chipmakers operating on thinner margins are expected to pass a meaningful share of these increases on to consumers, which is one reason, along with surging prices for memory, analysts expect flagship device prices to tick higher starting later this year. It is a useful reminder that the AI capital cycle, for all its abstraction on a spreadsheet, is already showing up in the price of an iPhone or a laptop.
Managing High-Quality ProblemsWherever Q2 results land, TSMC is for the moment sitting in the catbird seat during the biggest capex cycle of this century.
They operate at the technological frontier of semiconductor fabrication worldwide. They work with the most desirable customers, and those customers fight to get allocations of their capacity. More significantly, they have built a “trust moat” based on years of meeting commitments, engineering excellence, and protecting customer IP that sets them apart from their closest competitors, Samsung Foundry and Intel.
The challenges TSMC faces reflect the ordinary friction of building enormous capacity and talent at record speed, and they are better positioned than anyone to manage them.
Their CEO C.C. Wei has burnished his credibility through a combination of bullish capital commitments to expansion, made after months of channel checks with major customers, and frank discussions about the risk of industry overcapacity. For this reason, analysts will be hanging on his every word to divine how long the AI Supercycle is likely to persist.
TSMC očekává, že celoroční tržby v roce 2026 vzrostou o více než 30 % v dolarech díky silné poptávce po AI čipech. Firma zároveň zvyšuje kapitálové výdaje, aby rozšířila kapacity.
Key Takeaways TSMC outperformed the sector and key peers over the past year amid strong AI-driven demand.TSM expects more than 30% full-year 2026 revenue growth and higher capital spending to expand capacity.TSMC's 2nm, A16 and expanding 3nm capacity support growth across smartphone and HPC AI applications. The global semiconductor foundry market is attracting growing investor interest, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT). Foundries continue to heavily invest in research and development to offer advanced process nodes, helping meet demand for these high-tech applications. According to Fortune Business Insights, the market is projected to witness a CAGR of 3.4% through 2026-2034, expanding from $175.1 billion in 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM - Free Report) , or TSMC, dominates this space with more than 70% market share.
Over the past year, the stock has surged 90.4%, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s 37.2% gain and the S&P 500 composite’s 24.9% return. TSMC also outpaced peers GlobalFoundries (GFS - Free Report) and ON Semiconductor (ON - Free Report) , or onsemi, both of which gained 58.9% over the same period.
TSM Stock’s 12-month Performance
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Based on its last closing price, TSM stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling sustained bullish momentum.
TSM Technical Indicator
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Tailwinds Supporting TSMCTSMC reported May 2026 consolidated net revenues of NT$416.98 billion (New Taiwan Dollars), up 1.5% from April 2026 and 30.1% from May 2025. For the first five months of 2026, consolidated revenues totaled NT$1.96 trillion, marking a 30% increase compared with the same period last year.
Robust AI-related demand underpins the company’s growth outlook. Management stated that the shift from generative AI and the query mode to agentic AI and command and action mode is driving higher token consumption and increasing the need for computation, supporting demand for leading-edge silicon. TSMC continues to see a strong signal and positive outlook from its customers as well as cloud service providers, maintaining a high level of conviction in the multiyear AI megatrend.
Performance-wise, first-quarter 2026 revenues increased 6.4% sequentially to $35.9 billion, slightly ahead of the company’s guidance. Gross margin expanded by 390 basis points (bps) sequentially to 66.2%, driven by cost improvement efforts, a higher overall capacity utilization rate and a more favorable foreign exchange rate. Operating margin improved 410 bps sequentially to 58.1% due to operating leverage.
TSMC’s 2-nanometer (N2) and A16 technologies continue to lead the industry in addressing the demand for energy-efficient computing, with almost all the innovators working with TSMC. N2 is ramping up successfully in multiple phases at both the company’s Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites, led by strong demand from both smartphone and High-Performance Computing (“HPC”) AI applications.
At the same time, the company is stepping up its capital expenditure to expand its global 3-nanometer capacity. The expansion spans Taiwan, Arizona and Japan, alongside 5-nanometer tool conversions and capacity optimization across N7, N5 and N3 nodes. TSMC’s A14 technology development is also on track, for which it is seeing a high level of customer interest and engagement from both smartphone and HPC applications.
TSMC’s Near-Term Financial OutlookTSMC remains confident that full-year 2026 revenues will grow by more than 30% in U.S. dollar terms, reflecting the strength of its differentiated technology and broad customer base.
For the second quarter, the company expects revenues between $39 billion and $40.2 billion, representing 10% sequential growth and 32% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Based on an exchange rate assumption of $1 to 31.7 New Taiwan Dollars, the second-quarter gross margin is projected at 65.5%-67.5% and operating margin at 56.5%-58.5%. Management noted that the initial ramp-up of its 2-nanometer technology will dilute gross margin by 2%-3% for the year.
TSMC also expects capital expenditures to trend toward the high end of its previously announced $52-$56 billion range as it expands capacity to support customer demand. Despite the elevated spending, management reiterated its focus on delivering profitable growth for shareholders.
TSM Stock’s Estimate TrendAt present, the Zacks Consensus Estimate expects TSMC’s earnings per share (EPS) to grow 44.1% to $15.35 in 2026, followed by another 27% increase to $19.50 in 2027. Analyst estimates for both years have moved higher over the past three months. The company’s revenues are expected to grow 32.3% in 2026 and another 26.6% in 2027.
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How Valuation Metrics Look for TSMCBased on the forward 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E), TSM trades at 25.84X, slightly above its median of 24.33X and the 24.98X sector average. In contrast, GFS trades at a P/E of 38.63X, while ON sits with 24.35X.
TSM’s One-Year P/E
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ConclusionTSMC benefits from strong demand for its leading-edge process technologies. The performance of its key profitability metrics is supported by cost improvement efforts and a high-capacity utilization rate. The higher level of capital spending reflects management’s confidence in delivering profitable growth to shareholders and also capturing long-term growth opportunities. At the same time, TSMC remains well-positioned to continue capitalizing on the strong industry tailwinds.
The stock has significantly outperformed the sector and other peers over the past 12 months. From a valuation standpoint, TSM is trading close to both its historical median and sector average. Backed by positive earnings estimate revisions, the stock appears to be an attractive investment opportunity.
TSM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Taiwan Semiconductor vykázal ve 1. čtvrtletí hrubou marži 66,2 %, tedy nad horní hranicí guidance o 120 bazických bodů. Ve 2. čtvrtletí čeká 66,5 % uprostřed rozpětí.
Key Takeaways Taiwan Semiconductor posted a 66.2% Q1 gross margin, beating the high end of guidance by 120 bps.TSM expects Q2 gross margin of 66.5% at midpoint, helped by utilization and cost improvements.Taiwan Semiconductor expects N3 gross margin to reach the corporate average in the second half. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM - Free Report) reported a first-quarter 2026 gross margin of 66.2%, up 390 basis points (bps) sequentially. The improvement was driven by cost reduction efforts, a higher overall capacity utilization rate and a more favorable foreign exchange rate. Gross margin also exceeded the high end of management’s guidance by 120 bps. For the second quarter, TSM expects gross margin to increase by 30 bps to 66.5% at the midpoint, benefiting from higher utilization and ongoing cost improvement efforts, but partially offset by dilution from its overseas fabs.
Beyond the second quarter, the company expects several factors to influence profitability during the back half of 2026. The initial ramp-up of its 2-nanometer technology is projected to dilute full-year gross margin by 2% to 3%. The expanding overseas manufacturing capacity is expected to create gross margin dilution of 2% to 3% in the early stages, increasing to 3% to 4% as those facilities scale over the coming years.
Taiwan Semiconductor also indicated that recent developments in the Middle East could raise prices for certain chemicals and gases, although it is too early to estimate the potential financial impact. The company aims to generate more wafer output through enhanced manufacturing productivity and drive greater cross-node capacity optimization in its fab operations to support profitability. TSM expects N3 gross margin to cross over to the corporate average in the second half of the year. Foreign exchange movements remain another factor that could influence profitability.
TSM’s Peer UpdatesAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) announced plans to invest up to £2 billion over the next five years in the United Kingdom to accelerate AI innovation and research, and expand access to the compute resources needed for long-term economic growth and scientific leadership across the country. Building on its recently announced work with Oxford Quantum Circuits (OQC) and JPMorganChase, AMD also announced a collaboration with Imperial College London to advance computational science and support research that relies on large-scale computing resources, including healthcare innovation and climate modeling.
ON Semiconductor (ON - Free Report) , now branded as onsemi, entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Synaptics in an all-stock transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7 billion. By adding Synaptics’ differentiated Edge AI compute franchise and strong portfolio of human-machine interface and wireless connectivity solutions, onsemi is expected to extend its capabilities beyond power and sensing to intelligent systems. The combined platform is intended to position onsemi at the center of Physical AI, with the potential to expand onsemi’s TAM by $30 billion to $243 billion by 2030.
TSM’s Price Performance, Valuation and EarningsOver the past 12 months, Taiwan Semiconductor shares have surged 89.1%, in line with the Zacks Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of valuation, TSM trades at a forward, five-year Price/Sales (P/S) of 12.25X compared with its 8.12X median and the industry average of 12.25X.
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Take a look at how estimates for Taiwan Semiconductor’s 2026 and 2027 earnings are shaping up.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Taiwan Semiconductor currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Citi zvýšila cílovou cenu TSMC na NT$3,800 z NT$2,875 a očekává zrychlující se poptávku po AI čipech před výsledky 16. července. Banka zároveň vidí širší a trvalejší AI cyklus.
TSMC stock is hovering near its 52-week high as analysts grow more confident that the world’s most important contract chipmaker still has room to run.
Taiwan-listed shares recently traded around NT$2,445-NT$2,465, close to their 52-week high of NT$2,535.
The latest push comes after Citi Research raised its price target to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing accelerating AI chip demand ahead of TSMC’s July 16 earnings report.
Citi’s argument is no longer just that TSMC is riding the AI chip boom, but the boom is becoming broader, more durable and harder for rivals to match.
The brokerage said demand for TSMC’s advanced process technologies is spreading beyond AI graphics processors into custom AI chips, cloud TPUs, networking silicon, optical interconnects and CPUs.
That matters because it makes the AI cycle less dependent on one product line, one customer or one phase of data-centre spending.
Citi also expects TSMC to raise its 2026 revenue growth outlook and long-term growth targets when it reports quarterly earnings later this month.
The stronger visibility into AI-related demand supports a more optimistic earnings view ahead of the company’s July 16 analyst meeting.
The latest note also puts more weight on pricing power. Citi expects wafer prices to keep rising into next year as demand strengthens for TSMC’s N2 and N3 process technologies.
That should help support margins, even as depreciation costs rise because of heavy investment in new capacity.
The bigger point is that TSMC’s advantage is increasingly about scale, not just technology.
Citi said the company’s combined leading-edge node capacity could approach 350,000 to 400,000 wafers per month by the end of 2028, supporting higher utilisation and giving customers more confidence that TSMC can meet the next wave of AI demand.
Advanced packaging is becoming a bigger part of TSMC’s bull case as AI chips become more complex and harder to scale.
For customers building AI accelerators, making the processor is only one part of the challenge.
These chips also need to be packaged with high-bandwidth memory and other components in a way that allows them to move huge amounts of data quickly and efficiently.
That makes packaging capacity almost as important as wafer capacity.
Citi’s latest note puts that shift at the centre of TSMC’s investment case.
The brokerage said TSMC’s advantage is increasingly coming from the combination of leading-edge manufacturing scale and advanced packaging leadership, rather than process technology alone.
That is important because AI demand is no longer limited to GPUs.
Citi expects the cycle to keep broadening into custom AI chips, cloud TPUs, networking silicon, optical interconnects and CPUs.
Each of those areas increases demand not just for advanced nodes such as N2 and N3, but also for the packaging technologies needed to turn those chips into usable AI systems.
TSMC is therefore spending heavily to stay ahead of the bottleneck.
UBS analyst Sharon Lin also lifted the firm’s TSMC target to NT$3,400 from NT$3,000 and raised capex forecasts for 2026 through 2028, arguing that higher investment commitments should help ease customer concerns about limited supply and second-source diversification.
That captures why TSMC’s valuation story is changing. Investors are no longer looking only at how many advanced chips the company can manufacture.
They are also asking whether TSMC can provide the packaging scale, capacity visibility and long-term supply assurance that AI customers need before committing to the next wave of spending.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing vykázala v 1. čtvrtletí výnosy ve výši 35,9 miliardy USD, meziročně o 40,6 % více, a čistý zisk vzrostl o 58,3 %. Management odhaduje, že ve 2. čtvrtletí budou výnosy činit 39 až 40,2 miliardy USD.
There are four companies in the world worth $3 trillion or more: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet. What they have in common is that they either develop the most important consumer hardware on Earth, run the software infrastructure that enterprises depend on, or design the chips that power the AI revolution.
The fifth member of that club is none of those things. Instead, it produces key components for all of them. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 2.15%) sits at roughly $2.24 trillion in market value as of late June 2026. That makes it the sixth most valuable company on the planet.
Given the numbers it's putting up right now, the $3 trillion mark is not far away. Here's how it gets there.
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The numbers make the case In 2026's first quarter, TSMC reported revenue of $35.9 billion, up 40.6% from the same quarter a year earlier. Net income rose 58.3% year over year. Gross margin came in at 66.2%. Net profit margin was 50.5%. Take a second with that last number. For every dollar TSMC brings in, it keeps fifty cents as profit. That's a level of operational leverage most companies would consider impossible.
For Q2 2026, management guided for revenue between $39 billion and $40.2 billion. The full-year 2026 growth forecast is above 30% in U.S. dollar terms. At that trajectory, TSMC will generate well north of $150 billion in annual revenue this year. If margins hold even close to where they are, the profit picture is extraordinary.
To get from $2.24 trillion to $3 trillion, the stock needs to gain roughly 34%. With earnings compounding at 50% or more year over year, that gap closes quickly.
Why TSMC is the real AI story Everyone focuses on Nvidia when they talk about AI chips, and that's fair. But Nvidia does not manufacture its own chips. Neither does Advanced Micro Devices. Neither does Apple. Every advanced processor in those companies' lineups comes out of a TSMC fab. TSMC has roughly 70% global market share in advanced chip manufacturing, and no competitor is close to challenging that at the most cutting-edge nodes.
Advanced technologies at 7 nanometers (nms) and below now account for 74% of TSMC's wafer revenue. That mix has shifted fast, and it matters because leading-edge nodes carry higher prices and better margins. As AI drives demand for 3nm and eventually 2nm chips, TSMC gets paid more per wafer and keeps more of it.
The AI infrastructure build-out is not a quarter or two of demand. Every hyperscaler is building massive graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters, and every GPU in those clusters is a TSMC chip. Nvidia has Blackwell. Amazon has Trainium. Alphabet's Google has tensor processing units (TPUs). They all flow through TSMC's fabs.
Image source: Getty Images.
Arizona changes the story For years, the argument against owning TSMC was the geopolitical risk. All the important fabs were on Taiwan, and the uncertainty around that geography created what analysts called a "Taiwan discount" on the stock's valuation. That discount is starting to shrink.
TSMC has committed $165 billion to its Arizona expansion, a campus covering more than 2,000 acres with six planned fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center. The first Arizona fab already turned a $514 million profit in its first year of production. Phase two, running at 3nm, is on track for 2027, a full year ahead of the original schedule.
As more production moves to U.S. soil, institutional investors who previously avoided TSM on geopolitical grounds have a reason to buy. That is not a small shift. More buyers chasing the same fundamental story pushes multiples up, which pushes market cap up alongside the earnings growth.
TSMC is not invincible. A serious escalation in Taiwan tensions remains a risk that no analyst can fully price. The company also relies on equipment makers like ASML Holding for the tools it needs to manufacture at leading-edge nodes, which creates supply-chain dependencies. And semiconductor cycles can turn. A broad slowdown in AI infrastructure spending would show up in TSMC's numbers fast.
But if you believe AI is a decade-long build-out, and that someone has to manufacture all those chips, TSMC's path to the $3 trillion club is one of the more visible roads in the market right now.
Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 2.15%) is one of the most important semiconductor companies in the world, as it manufactures chips for almost all the leading companies that design chips for data centers, gaming consoles, smartphones, personal computers (PCs), cars, and factories, among other things.
It controls nearly three-fourths of the global foundry market, according to Counterpoint Research. Its nearest competitor has a market share of just 7%. Not surprisingly, TSMC exercises phenomenal pricing power in the foundry market, and that's the reason why this semiconductor stock is poised to skyrocket following the latest move it may make.
Image source: TSMC.
TSMC is reportedly raising the price of all its advanced manufacturing nodes As reported by Tom's Hardware, TSMC is likely to increase the prices of its advanced chipmaking nodes by 5% to 10%. Several customers use these advanced nodes to produce chips deployed in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, smartphones, PCs, and other applications. TSMC gets 74% of its total revenue from selling chips made using advanced process nodes, which are classified as 7-nanometer (nm) or smaller.
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As advanced nodes account for a significant share of TSMC's revenue, the purported price hikes will eventually lead to stronger profitability. The Taiwan-based company's net profit margin increased by 7.4 percentage points year over year in Q1 to 50.5%. Given that the reported price increases are already being rolled out, TSMC's margins could get fatter as the year progresses.
What's worth noting is that analysts are projecting a 48% increase in the company's earnings per share in 2026 to $15.80. However, TSMC reported a 65% increase in earnings per share in Q1 to $3.49. So, the higher pricing reportedly set to take effect is likely to help TSMC deliver stronger earnings growth than the market expects.
A stronger-than-expected earnings jump could help the stock deliver more gains this year TSMC stock has gained 39% in 2026, as of this writing. Given that the company seems well-placed to beat analysts' earnings expectations this year due to its strong pricing power and the rapid growth of the AI chip market, further upside in the stock price cannot be ruled out.
Let's assume TSMC's earnings per share jump by 60% this year (almost in line with its Q1 year-over-year earnings growth) to $17.04, from $10.65 per share in 2025, and it trades at 30 times earnings (a discount to the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index's average earnings multiple of 39), its stock price could reach $511. That implies a potential jump of 15% in this AI stock in the second half of 2026.
However, TSMC's ability to deliver above-average earnings growth could be rewarded with a premium valuation, suggesting it could deliver much stronger gains than anticipated.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing zrychluje globální rozšíření kapacity pro 3nm výrobu kvůli silné poptávce po AI. Nová výroba má začít na Tchaj-wanu v první polovině roku 2027, v Arizoně ve druhé polovině roku 2027 a v Japonsku v roce 2028.
Key Takeaways Taiwan Semiconductor is expanding global N3 capacity to meet strong AI and advanced chip demand.TSM plans new 3-nanometer volume production in Taiwan and Arizona in 2027, and Japan in 2028.TSM expects N3 gross margin to exceed the corporate average in the second half of 2026. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM - Free Report) is accelerating capital spending to expand global capacity for 3-nanometer FinFET (N3) technologies in response to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The move is expected to support the robust multiyear pipeline of demand for these technologies, which are used by smartphone, High-Performance Computing AI, including High Bandwidth Memory-based dies, automotive and Internet of Things customers. The investment marks a departure from the company’s long-standing practice of limiting capacity additions to a node once it has reached its target capacity.
In Taiwan, TSM is adding a new 3-nanometer fab to its GIGAFAB cluster in Tainan Science Park, with volume production scheduled for the first half of 2027. In Arizona, Taiwan Semiconductor’s second fab will also utilize 3-nanometer technologies. With construction already completed, volume production is set to begin in the second half of 2027. Meanwhile, in Japan, the company plans to utilize 3-nanometer technology in its second fab, with volume production scheduled for 2028.
Alongside the new fabs, Taiwan Semiconductor continues to convert the 5-nanometer tool to support 3-nanometer capacity in Taiwan. It is also working to drive greater productivity across its global fab locations to generate more wafer output while focusing on capacity optimization across nodes, including flexible capacity support among N7, N5 and N3 nodes.
Financially, TSM management projects N3 gross margin to cross over the corporate average in the second half of 2026.
TSM’s Peer UpdatesMicron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) and General Motors announced a Strategic Customer Agreement to secure a long-term, reliable supply of memory and storage platforms critical to GM’s vehicle production and delivery at scale. Both companies are working together to strengthen semiconductor and automotive supply chains while supporting the next generation of U.S. manufacturing and innovation. The agreement reflects Micron’s ongoing investments to expand and localize supply for automotive customers, including advanced DRAM manufacturing in Manassas, VA.
GlobalFoundries (GFS - Free Report) recently announced production readiness for its SLATE wafer-to-wafer bonding technology on the 9SW radio-frequency silicon-on-insulator (RF-SOI) platform, enabling advanced 3D integration for compact, high-performance cellular front-ends. Manufactured at GlobalFoundries’ 300mm facility in Singapore, 9SW SLATE technology is expected to ramp up to volume production by the second half of 2027. First introduced in 2023, the 9SW RF-SOI platform is GF’s most advanced RF solution for front-end modules, spanning sub-8GHz and FR3 frequency ranges for 5G mobile devices and satellite communications.
The Zacks Rundown for TSM StockSo far this year, Taiwan Semiconductor shares have rallied 47.1% compared with the industry’s 57.2% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of valuation, TSM trades at a forward, 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E) of 27.43X compared with its 24.29X median and the industry average of 27.42X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Consensus estimates for Taiwan Semiconductor’s2026 and 2027 earnings are showing an upward trend over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Taiwan Semiconductor currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
A strong stock as of late has been TSMC (TSM - Free Report) . Shares have been marching higher, with the stock up 6.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $479 in the previous session. TSMC has gained 57.2% since the start of the year compared to the 18.2% move for the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the 57.2% return for the Zacks Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, having beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 16, 2026, TSMC reported EPS of $3.49 versus consensus estimate of $3.31.
For the current fiscal year, TSMC is expected to post earnings of $15.35 per share on $161.91 in revenues. This represents a 44.13% change in EPS on a 32.26% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $19.5 per share on $204.95 in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 26.98% and 26.58%, respectively.
Valuation MetricsTSMC may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
TSMC has a Value Score of D. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 31.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 31.1X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 32.1X versus its peer group's average of 32.1X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.2. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks RankWe also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this is even more important than the company's VGM Score. Fortunately, TSMC currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if TSMC meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though TSMC shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.
Intel v 1. čtvrtletí vykázal non-GAAP EPS 0,29 USD při tržbách 13,58 mld. USD a divize Data Center a AI vzrostla meziročně o 22 %. TSMC zároveň zvýšila tržby o 21,4 % a čistý zisk o 43,82 %.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) both posted Q1 2026 results that frame the same question from opposite sides: who builds the world’s most advanced chips, and where. TSMC remains the engine of AI silicon. Intel is the Western alternative hyperscalers are quietly funding. Geography matters more than the numbers.
Foundry Bets Lift Intel. AI Wafers Carry TSMC. Intel’s Q1 came in at $0.29 in non-GAAP EPS on $13.58B revenue, with Data Center and AI up 22% YoY and Foundry up 16% YoY. CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated: “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user… This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings.” A $4.07B Mobileye-related restructuring charge dragged GAAP results into a loss.
TSMC’s quarter was cleaner. Q1 revenue hit NT$1,134.10B, up 21.4% YoY, and net income jumped 43.82% to NT$572.48B. Gross margin reached 66.2%, a profitability profile Intel cannot match today. April monthly revenue rose 17.5% YoY, confirming AI wafer demand is accelerating.
Western Subsidies vs. Taiwanese Scale Intel’s foundry roadmap anchors a politically insulated U.S. manufacturing base: $8.9B in CHIPS Act funding, a $5.0B NVIDIA equity investment, $2.0B from SoftBank, and Intel 18A ramping at Fab 52 in Arizona. Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems. Intel joined the Terafab project alongside SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla. Hyperscalers are realizing that relying on a single island for over 90% of advanced chip fabrication is an unsustainable operational risk.
TSMC is diversifying with fabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany, with its Arizona tax credit rate raised from 25% to 35%. Customer concentration is striking: the top 10 customers represent 84% of accounts receivable. Most leading-edge research stays in Hsinchu.
Lens Intel TSMC Core Bet U.S. foundry as secure second source Taiwan-anchored leading-edge dominance Key Vulnerability Execution on 18A yields and customer wins Geopolitical concentration risk Profit Engine Xeon, advanced packaging, foundry ramp 3nm and 2nm AI wafers The Next Test Is Intel 18A Customer Wins Watch whether Intel converts its Google ASIC partnership and NVIDIA wafer relationship into named 18A foundry customers before management decides on the Intel 14A go-ahead. For TSMC, monitor whether the 2D transistor and CoPoS packaging roadmap stays on schedule while Arizona expansion absorbs more capex. Intel guided Q2 to $13.8B-$14.8B in revenue with non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, so the margin path matters more than the headline.
Why Intel Offers Asymmetric Upside Intel fits investors seeking exposure to the structural reshoring trade, even with restructuring noise and a CFO who trimmed shares at $109.82. The stock is up 256.78% YTD, so the easy money is gone, but the foundry thesis has years to play out. TSMC remains the better business by every operating metric, with 46.5% profit margin proving it. TSMC may appeal to investors prioritizing quality compounding. If China-Taiwan tensions cool meaningfully, the relative case for TSMC strengthens. Until then, Intel’s political insulation is the edge the market is still underpricing.
Taiwan Semiconductor klesá kvůli slabšímu trhu, ne kvůli vlastní zprávě; Counterpoint Research uvedl, že globální trh Foundry 2.0 těží z trvalé poptávky po umělé inteligenci a že Taiwan Semiconductor má zůstat jedním z největších vítězů, protože AI investice pokračují do roku 2026.
The decline appears to reflect broad market weakness rather than company-specific news. Softer index futures prompted investors to reduce exposure to high-growth technology stocks, leading to profit-taking across semiconductor names following their strong gains in recent months.
AI Spending Keeps Taiwan Semiconductor Ahead While Intel Foundry Gains TractionSeparately, Counterpoint Research said on Friday the global Foundry 2.0 market is benefiting from sustained artificial intelligence demand, with Taiwan Semiconductor expected to remain one of the biggest winners as AI investments continue through 2026.
The research firm said Taiwan Semiconductor’s first-quarter revenue surged 41% year over year and forecast full-year 2026 revenue growth of about 36%, driven by strong demand for AI GPUs, AI ASICs and advanced packaging.
Senior Analyst William Li said the current AI cycle represents a “broader structural transformation” for the semiconductor industry rather than a typical cyclical recovery, citing unprecedented capacity reallocations, pricing changes, and persistent CoWoS packaging constraints.
“Growing TPU and ASIC demand could further tighten leading-edge capacity, creating opportunities for Intel Foundry and Samsung Foundry, with Apple M-series chip on Intel Foundry as a potential catalyst,” the research firm said.
Technical AnalysisDespite Friday’s pullback, TSM remains in a long-term uptrend. The stock continues to trade above its 50-day simple moving average of $411.50, its 100-day SMA of $381.83, and its 200-day SMA of $339.26. The 20-day SMA also remains above the 50-day SMA, while the 50-day SMA stays above the 200-day SMA, signaling a bullish long-term trend.
In the near term, however, momentum has cooled. TSM is trading about 1.5% below its 20-day SMA of $433.61 after retreating from its June peak and 52-week high. That suggests the stock is consolidating rather than extending its rally.
The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 52.43, indicating neutral momentum. A reading near 50 typically signals a balanced market where buyers and sellers remain evenly matched.
Key resistance sits near $450. A move above that level could revive bullish momentum. On the downside, support is around $405.50, just below the 50-day moving average. A break below that level could weaken the intermediate-term trend.
Earnings And Analyst OutlookTSM is expected to report second-quarter results on July 16.
Wall Street expects earnings of $3.77 per share, up from $2.47 a year earlier, on revenue of $39.76 billion, compared with $30.07 billion in the prior-year quarter.
The stock trades at about 37.5 times earnings, reflecting its premium valuation.
Analysts remain broadly bullish. The consensus rating is Buy, with an average price forecast of $489.17. Recent analyst actions include:
Bank of America Securities reiterated Buy and raised its price forecast to $590 on June 24. Susquehanna maintained a Positive rating and lifted its price forecast to $575 on June 22. Barclays reiterated Overweight with a $470 price forecast on April 22. Taiwan Semiconductor Benzinga Edge RankingsAccording to Benzinga Edge, TSM scores highly for Momentum (91.98), Growth (92.65), and Quality (97.54), while its Value score remains weak at 22.28 because of its premium valuation.
The combination suggests investors continue to reward the company’s strong earnings profile and AI-driven growth prospects, although valuation remains a key consideration.
ETF ExposureTSM is a major holding in several exchange-traded funds, including:
Large inflows or outflows in these funds can create additional buying or selling pressure for TSM shares.
Taiwan Semiconductor Price ActionTSM Stock Price Activity: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were down 1.61% at $428.00 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing těží z prudké poptávky po AI čipech, když tržby v 1. čtvrtletí meziročně vzrostly o 40 %. Firma zároveň drží přes 70% podíl na globálním foundry trhu.
There are many ways to invest in artificial intelligence (AI), but overall, there is no business better positioned to compete than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 1.61%). It produces chips for Nvidia, Apple, and other leading tech companies. It's a wide-moat business that provides broad exposure to the AI chip market with one stock, making it the smartest way to invest in AI infrastructure.
The stock's price has climbed 110% over the past year. In the first quarter, revenue surged 40% year over year, driven by insatiable demand for AI chips powering advanced computing systems.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
It's not easy to replicate what TSMC does. It takes at least a few years to complete the production process, including testing and qualifying a new leading-edge process node. This makes it costly for customers to switch suppliers once a chip blueprint has been sent to TSMC for production.
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TSMC controls over 70% of the global foundry market, according to Counterpoint. This dominant lead is reflected in its high margins. Over the last year, TSMC's net profit margin was 47%.
There is growing competition from other foundries, including Intel and Samsung. Still, recent reports indicate that TSMC is raising prices for its process nodes amid strong demand and higher costs of memory components used in chipmaking. This reinforces its wide competitive moat in the industry. The stock trades at about 30 times this year's earnings estimate, which isn't cheap but reasonable, and analysts project 31% annualized earnings growth over the next several years.
John Ballard has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Intel, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Intel oznámil silný zisk na akcii, ale zároveň zaúčtoval restrukturalizační náklad 4,07 miliardy USD. TSMC dál roste: tržby za 1. čtvrtletí stouply o 21,4 % a čistý zisk o 43,8 %.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) just delivered very different earnings stories. Intel posted a 2,183.46% non-GAAP EPS beat under CEO Lip-Bu Tan while absorbing a $4.07 billion restructuring charge.
TSMC kept compounding, with Q1 revenue rising 21.4% YoY and net income jumping 43.8%. Both sit at the heart of the AI hardware buildout, on very different footing.
AI Servers Lift Intel. Leading-Edge Nodes Lift TSMC. Intel’s Data Center and AI segment grew 22% YoY to $5.05 billion, and Intel Foundry climbed 16% to $5.42 billion. Client Computing, the legacy PC business, barely moved at 1%. That mix tells you where the energy is.
Lip-Bu Tan framed it bluntly: “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic.” Strategic wins back the talk: Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, and Google signed on for custom ASIC IPUs.
TSMC is operating on a different plane. May revenue alone hit NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% YoY, and management is guiding to over 30% full-year revenue growth. The 58.1% operating margin reflects pricing power on advanced nodes that no one else can match at scale.
Business Driver Intel TSMC Main Growth Engine Data Center and AI, Foundry ramp Leading-edge AI wafers Q1 Revenue Growth +7.2% YoY +21.4% YoY Gross Margin 41.0% non-GAAP Mid- to high-60s Rebuilder vs. Compounder Intel is rebuilding a foundry from inside an integrated company. The $5 billion NVIDIA equity stake, the Google ASIC deal, and the Terafab tie-up with SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla all point to one bet: that U.S. leading-edge capacity has strategic value buyers will pay for.
The hitch is execution. Intel Foundry is still losing money, and management has flagged a potential pause of Intel 14A if customers do not commit.
TSMC’s path is simpler. Stay the only credible volume supplier of leading-edge nodes, then collect rent. Its Arizona expansion is now eligible for a 35% investment tax credit effective January 1, 2026, which softens the geopolitical hedge cost.
On insider activity, TSMC saw three coordinated buy events between April and June with CEO C.C. Wei adding shares each time, while Intel’s CFO and foundry GM were net sellers in May and June.
The Next Test Is Foundry Conversion For Intel, Q2 guidance of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion in revenue at a 39% gross margin suggests momentum without margin breakout yet. I will watch whether Intel 18A volume in Arizona converts external customers into multiyear wafer commitments.
For TSMC, the question is whether NT dollar appreciation and customer concentration (top 10 customers = 84% of receivables) start to bite reported growth.
TSMC the Compounder, Intel the Higher-Variance Bet Intel has run hard. The stock is up 258.48% year to date and 524.26% over one year, which already prices in a lot of belief. TSMC is up a more measured 44.32% YTD while actually producing the cash flows.
For me, TSMC fits a buy-the-business investor: 46.5% profit margin, 36.2% ROE, and durable demand. Intel suits a turnaround investor willing to underwrite Foundry losses for the chance that Tan’s reset reshapes the cost base. Intel’s risk/reward at current levels skews to execution risk on the Foundry ramp, while TSMC’s cash generation cushions volatility on pullbacks.
Taiwan Semiconductor v květnu zvýšila měsíční tržby na 416,98 miliardy NT$, meziročně o 30,1 %. CEO C.C. Wei zároveň očekává růst za celý rok 2026 o více než 30 % v USD.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | TSM Price Prediction) just put the rest of the chip sector on notice. Monthly revenue for May 2026 hit NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% year over year, and CEO C.C. Wei is telling investors the company will “grow by above 30% in U.S. dollar terms” for full-year 2026.
Shares are already up 44.32% year to date, closing at $436.39 after a 6.69% single-day pullback. Can TSM print $500 before 2026 is over?
What’s Holding TSMC Back Right Now TSM is up 109.73% over the past year and trades just 1% from its 52-week high of $476.31. The 8.12% one-month gain ran headfirst into valuation fatigue, and the most recent session lopped off 6.69% in a single day.
Wei flagged caution on the call, citing “the impact of rising component prices” and Middle East macro risks. With a beta of 1.25, this stock amplifies tech-sector wobbles. Add a patent infringement complaint at the U.S. ITC and persistent NT-dollar FX pressure, and traders have hit pause near $440.
Wall Street Sees 8.5% Upside. Our Model Says More Sell-side analysts carry an average target of $473.40, backed by 5 Strong Buys, 12 Buys, 2 Holds, and zero sell ratings. Our internal model anchors on a base case of $512.37 with a bull case of $534.19 and a bear case of $417.73. Confidence is rated at 90%.
With 89% of the bullish/bearish coverage tilted bullish and quarterly earnings growth running at 58.4% year over year, the Street is anchoring to old EPS assumptions. $500 sits between consensus and our base case, the most reachable round number on the board. BofA raised the firm’s price target on TSMC to $590 from $490 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
The Path to $500 Per Share Reaching $500 from today’s price of $436.39 requires a gain of 14.6%. With forward EPS of $14.50, a price of $500 implies a forward P/E of 35x. Our base case of $512.37 already implies 36x, so $500 actually demands slightly less multiple expansion than where our model already sits.
Earnings do the heavy lifting. Q1 2026 net income jumped 43.82% YoY, and Q2 guidance implies USD $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in revenue, a 32% YoY increase at the midpoint. Wei said “AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust” and that the shift to agentic AI is driving “higher 50s of CAGR” in AI accelerator demand.
Add the 35% Arizona investment tax credit effective January 1, 2026 and a $52-56 billion CapEx envelope, and the forward multiple compresses naturally as EPS catches up. The primary risk is a Taiwan geopolitical shock that re-rates the entire foundry complex lower.
Where TSMC Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power At $436.39 against forward EPS of $14.50, TSM trades at a forward P/E of roughly 30x. That is reasonable for a business compounding earnings near 50%. Shares sit in the upper third of the 52-week range of $218.79 to $476.31, and the 10-year return is 2,086.07%. When a company owns the leading-edge node and prints 58% earnings growth, paying 30x forward is the bull case.
Is $500 Realistic? Reaching $500 requires a 14.6% gain from here. That is realistic before year-end 2026.
Three things need to go right: Q2 results hit the upper end of Wei’s $40.2 billion guide, gross margins land above 66%, and the AI accelerator order book stays at the higher 50s CAGR Wei flagged. What derails it is a Taiwan Strait headline or a meaningful customer capex pause. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing could reach $500 in 2026.
Intel získává pozornost díky potenciální spolupráci s Apple, což by mohlo posílit jeho pozici jako klíčového hráče v americké výrobě čipů. Podle zákona CHIPS Intel získává zhruba 8,5 miliardy USD v grantech a až 11 miliard USD v půjčkách, což podporuje jeho expanzi v oblasti domácí výroby.
Intel Is Turning into the U.S. Chip Bet that Wall Street Can Finally Explain
That is why the stock jumped in premarket trading. The headline is simple, but the bigger story is not just a single deal. Intel is starting to look less like a legacy chipmaker trying to catch up, and more like the factory everyone else may need if the U.S. really wants a domestic chip base.
The move also landed on top of an already big rerating. Intel has surged sharply over the past year, and this latest pop shows the market is willing to pay for any sign that the foundry story is becoming real.
Why Apple changes the conversationApple is not just another name on a customer list. In the foundry world, an Apple order is a stamp of approval. It tells the market that a company with some of the most demanding chip needs on the planet believes Intel's process is good enough to trust. That is a much bigger signal than a generic enterprise customer signing a contract.
A simple analogy helps here. If Intel were a restaurant, Apple would not just be a new diner walking in for lunch. Apple would be the chef, food critic, and high-end chain owner saying the kitchen is good enough to serve the best menu in town. Once that happens, every other customer starts looking again.
That is why this headline is bigger than the stock move itself. Apple has long leaned on TSMC for advanced chips, and any shift toward Intel suggests a hedge against supply chain concentration in Taiwan. Apple is not walking away from TSMC, but it is making the bet more balanced.
The Taiwan risk tradeThe deeper reason behind all of this is geography. Taiwan remains the center of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing, and analysts still describe the island's role as a kind of silicon shield. That shield is powerful, but it is also a concentration risk. If one region makes too much of the world's best silicon, the rest of the market has to think about what happens if politics, weather, or conflict interrupt the flow.
That is where Apple's possible Intel relationship becomes more than a business deal. It starts to look like insurance. For a company that ships hundreds of millions of devices and depends on predictable chip supply, the idea of a second source in the U.S. is not hard to understand. It is the corporate version of not relying on one bridge to get across a river.
Trump's comments fit that bigger theme. He did not just praise Intel. He framed the company as a tool for bringing chip production home. Whether the final deal is exactly as described or still being worked out, the market is reacting to the same message: Intel is becoming a political and industrial centerpiece for domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
CHIPS money is finally meeting customersThis is where the CHIPS Act comes in. Intel is the biggest visible winner of U.S. semiconductor subsidy policy, with roughly $8.5 billion in grants and up to $11 billion in loans tied to major domestic fab expansion. That support was always sold as a way to rebuild advanced manufacturing in America, but subsidies only go so far if the plants do not land major customers.
Apple is the kind of customer that makes the whole policy story look real. A subsidy can build the factory, but a customer fills it. That is the difference between a government plan and a working business. If Intel lands Apple volume on advanced nodes, the CHIPS thesis stops being theory and starts looking like a business model.
Intel is also making progress on the hardware side. CNBC reported that the company has begun production of 18A-P, its most advanced node, and said that node can deliver 9% better performance or 18% lower power than 18A. In plain English, Intel is trying to prove the machine behind the headline can actually run.
That also changes how retail investors should think about the stock. Intel is not just a turnaround on the old PC business. It is increasingly a pick-and-shovel play on the chip buildout. Gold rush traders do not always buy the biggest gold miner. Sometimes they buy the company selling the shovels, the picks, and the tents. That is the role Intel is trying to claim.
Tesla and the flywheel effectThe importance of a flywheel is easy to miss if you do not work in semiconductors. One anchor customer does not solve everything, but it changes the way everyone else sees the project. If Tesla is in, Apple is in, and the U.S. government is still backing the buildout, then the question for other customers becomes simple: do they want to be left outside the circle?
That is also why the market is likely to keep giving Intel a premium on any incremental foundry win. The stock is no longer trading only on whether the old Intel can survive. It is trading on whether the new Intel can become the place where other companies choose to build.
Why this can keep runningThe current move may also have a positioning effect. Stocks that go from "broken legacy name" to "national champion with Apple and Tesla in the mix" often attract a different crowd of buyers. That can create follow-through beyond the first headline, especially when traders realize the thesis is no longer one customer or one quarter.
Still, the stock is not free money. Intel still has to execute on yield, timing, and cost. A foundry business is like opening a new airport. You can announce the runway, but the real test is whether the planes land on time, the gates work, and the airlines keep coming back.
That is why the coming months will be important. Investors will want to see whether this Apple headline turns into actual production, whether more customers follow, and whether Intel can keep convincing the market that it deserves to be valued more like a foundry than a relic.
What traders should watchFor traders, the key question is not whether Intel can keep bouncing on headlines. It is whether those headlines start turning into recurring revenue from customers who actually need the new U.S. manufacturing base. If that happens, Intel stops being just a turnaround story and starts becoming one of the cleanest ways to trade the U.S. semiconductor buildout.
The headline version of this move is easy to grasp. Trump said Apple will work with Intel, the stock jumped, and traders rushed in. The deeper version is more interesting. Intel is starting to look like the bridge between Washington's chip policy, Apple's supply chain caution, and the market's search for a domestic semiconductor winner.
That is the story worth watching now. Not just whether Intel is up today, but whether this is the moment the market began pricing it as the American answer to TSMC (NASDAQ:TSM).
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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Wedbush zopakoval hodnocení "Outperform" pro Cerebras Systems s cílovou cenou 270 USD před prvním zveřejněním čtvrtletních výsledků jako veřejně obchodovaná společnost.
Cerebras Systems CBRS remained in focus Monday after Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating and $270 price target ahead of the AI chipmaker's first quarterly earnings release as a public company.
Wedbush said demand conditions for Cerebras appear supportive, citing the company's commercial relationships with OpenAI and Amazon. The firm noted that future results may depend more on operational execution and production scaling than customer demand.
Cerebras, which debuted on the Nasdaq in May, is developing large-scale AI processors and computing infrastructure. Wedbush said manufacturing capacity from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) could provide an opportunity for higher-than-expected output over the next two years.
The brokerage also pointed to potential benefits from the company's next-generation WSE-4 processor, which market observers expect could enter production in late 2026 or early 2027. Any updates related to that roadmap may be viewed favorably by investors.
Wedbush added that growing demand for AI inference computing, combined with industry supply constraints, could support Cerebras' longer-term expansion efforts as it seeks a larger position in the AI accelerator market.
Akcie TSMC vzrostly o 1,2 % na 467,67 USD, zatímco S&P 500 klesl o 0,37 %. Očekává se, že TSMC vykáže meziroční růst výdělku o 49,39 % na 3,69 USD na akcii.
TSMC (TSM - Free Report) closed at $467.67 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.2% move from the prior day. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.37%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.29%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.33%.
Shares of the chip company witnessed a gain of 14.24% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Computer and Technology sector with its gain of 4.52%, and the S&P 500's gain of 2.02%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of TSMC in its upcoming earnings disclosure. On that day, TSMC is projected to report earnings of $3.69 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 49.39%. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $39.76 billion, reflecting a 32.23% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $15.3 per share and a revenue of $161.88 billion, representing changes of +43.66% and +32.22%, respectively, from the prior year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for TSMC. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.11% higher within the past month. As of now, TSMC holds a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
In terms of valuation, TSMC is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 30.21. This represents no noticeable deviation compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 30.21.
Meanwhile, TSM's PEG ratio is currently 1.35. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. As of the close of trade yesterday, the Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry held an average PEG ratio of 1.35.
The Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 5, placing it within the top 3% of over 250 industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
To follow TSM in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.
Philippe Laffont z Coatue Management preferuje investovat do AI prostřednictvím TSMC, Lam Research a Applied Materials, které jsou klíčovými dodavateli pro výrobce polovodičů. Všechny tři společnosti na seznamu Philippe Laffonta také vyplácejí dividendy.
The likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU) remain the front and center of all AI-related debates in 2026, but billionaire investor Philippe Laffont is approaching the boom from a different angle.
Speaking recently with CNBC, the founder of Coatue Management revealed his $90 billion hedge fund prefers a classic “picks-and-shovels” strategy rather than wagering on individual chipmakers like NVDA.
His preferred means of gaining exposure to AI include TSMC, Lam Research, and Applied Materials Inc – the foundational silicon factories that every semiconductor company relies on.
Laffont owns TSMC stock for one simple reason: no matter who designs the next breakthrough AI chip, they must go through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
For example, Amazon is deploying its custom Trainium silicon, Alphabet Inc is committed to its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), and a wave of agile startups is entering the GPU space.
Yet, as Laffont points out, “All of them at the end of the day will need the same machines” – and almost all of them depend on TSMC’s cutting-edge foundry nodes to manufacture their silicon.
Holding a sizable stake in TSMC allows Coatue to remain agnostic in the fiercely competitive chip race while steadily capturing the rewards of a capex cycle that shows no signs of slowing down.
To build the microscopic, hyper-dense architectures required for modern AI workloads, specialized hardware is mandatory.
This reality leads Philippe Laffont directly to Lam Research Corp – an industry giant dominant in etching and deposition technology.
Modern artificial intelligence infrastructure is shifting into what the tech investor calls the “agentic era,” in which autonomous software agents execute long, multi-layered workflows.
This technological pivot needs huge amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and specialized advanced packaging – and LRCX manufactures the precise capital equipment needed to etch deep, flawless vertical pathways in advanced memory chips.
For Laffont, owning Lam Research shares provides a direct window into the physical layer of the AI ecosystem, capturing reliable revenue from every tech company building out data centers.
Completing Laffont’s top trio of semiconductor capital equipment holdings is Applied Materials, the world's largest supplier of tools used to fabricate advanced microchips.
As global electronics manufacturing becomes increasingly localized, AMAT shares benefit from massive structural headwinds and government subsidies.
Laffont – an MIT graduate and notable alumnus of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management – values the company’s near-monopoly on materials engineering solutions.
“If I’m a supplier to the fabs, I don’t need to make an exact bet on which of the chips is going to win,” he explained.
This strategic diversification protects Coatue Management’s portfolio from rapid obsolescence cycles while giving investors exposure to the hyper-growth of global AI factory expansions.
Note that all three names on Philippe Laffont’s list pay a dividend as well.
