Tesla klesla za týden o 18 % po slabších výsledcích ve 2. čtvrtletí, což byl její nejhorší týdenní propad od roku 2022. SpaceX před testem Starship V3 ztratila za pět dní 7,2 %.
Tesla shares plunged 18% during the week to close at $313.03 on Friday, their worst weekly slump since 2022. And SpaceX continued its downward slide, dropping 7.2% over five days to close at $115.07 Friday, its lowest since the company's record IPO last month.
The declines in both stocks wiped away about $130 billion of Musk's wealth, weeks after he'd become the world's first trillionaire. In a post on X on Friday, Musk wrote, "(Former) trillionaire."
Tesla's slump was spurred by weaker-than-expected earnings when the electric vehicle maker reported second-quarter results late Wednesday. The company turned cash flow negative due to a surge in spending on futuristic projects like robotaxis, humanoid robots and a giant chip fab.
"We expect this to pressure free cash flow and delay earnings growth, without providing any near-term shareholder return," wrote analysts at Argus Research, which has a hold rating on the stock, in a report on Friday. "We believe it will be nearly impossible for Tesla to generate any consistency in profit growth in the near-term."
Tesla's stock is now down 30% for the year, by far the worst performer among tech's megacaps.
Read more CNBC tech newsMoonshot AI accessed Nvidia's chips despite Chinese export ban, White House official saysAlphabet and Tesla test Wall Street's patience as AI spending overshadows growthAlphabet earnings takeaways: Q2 revenue beats, GOOGL stock sinks on 2026 capex hikeTesla misses on earnings, as free cash flow turns negative and margins slideMeanwhile, SpaceX's stock has been on a steady downward trajectory over the past month following an initial pop when the company went public. The shares have dropped for four of the past five weeks and are about 43% off their peak close on June 16.
On Friday evening, SpaceX will again attempt the 13th test flight of Starship, the largest rocket ever built or flown. The company plans to fly the new version of the rocket, Starship V3, from its company town and launch facility in Starbase, Texas. The rocket is designed to be fully reusable and is considered crucial for SpaceX's near-term aims to vastly grow its Starlink satellite network.
In a post on X, which is owned by SpaceX, the company said it delayed the test flight planned for Thursday "due to weather." SpaceX previously scrubbed a test flight last week, after the rocket's booster triggered a hold, which "shut down the engines right as they were starting to ignite," a SpaceX employee said during a livestream of the event.
A successful launch of Starship V3, an upgraded version of its roughly 400-foot-tall rocket, would be the first since the company's IPO.
SpaceX plans to use Starship to bring U.S. astronauts back to the Moon's surface, and Musk wants the rocket to eventually run manned missions to Mars.
Musk made a public appearance this week, sitting down for what turned out to be a contentious interview with The Economist.
Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of the publication, asked Musk about his support for "not just the populist right, but the far right, in fact very fringe parties in some countries."
In addition to his financial and vocal support for President Donald Trump, including his work for the second administration, Musk has endorsed Germany's AfD, an extreme anti-immigrant party, as well as the UK's Restore Britain, founded by Rupert Lowe, who also calls to "reverse mass migration."
"It's just normal people!" Musk said in response. He berated Beddoes and "the traditional media" for an "absurd characterization of the far right."
Tesla ve čtvrtletí poprvé po více než dvou letech vykázala záporný volný cash flow a zvýšila kapitálové výdaje na zhruba 5,8 miliardy USD. Akcie v jediném obchodním dni spadly o 14,52 %.
The stock plunged 14.52% to close at $319.69—the largest one-day loss in Tesla’s history. Trading volume surged to 115.61 million shares, more than double its three-month daily average of 49.4 million shares.
Earnings Miss Was Only the BeginningTesla’s second-quarter results gave investors multiple reasons to hit the sell button.
While revenue topped Wall Street estimates, adjusted earnings of 33 cents per share fell well short of expectations as automotive margins deteriorated. Gross margin slipped below analyst forecasts, highlighting continued pressure on Tesla’s core vehicle business even as deliveries improved.
But the bigger surprise came below the income statement.
Tesla reported negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years after capital expenditures more than doubled to roughly $5.8 billion. Management also said capital spending will exceed $25 billion in 2026 and continue climbing as the company ramps investments in robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots, AI infrastructure and next-generation manufacturing.
Wall Street Wanted More Than AI PromisesTesla has long argued that its future valuation depends less on selling cars and more on becoming an AI and robotics company.
The earnings call reinforced that strategy, but investors appeared unconvinced that the payoff is close enough to justify the growing bill. Analysts noted that while spending plans became clearer, updates on commercialization timelines for Robotaxi, Optimus and other AI initiatives offered few new catalysts to offset concerns about mounting cash burn.
The market’s reaction suggests investors are beginning to ask a tougher question: if Tesla is entering one of the heaviest investment cycles in its history, how long will shareholders have to wait before those billions translate into higher earnings?
Thursday’s answer was painful. In a single trading session, Tesla lost more market value than Toyota is worth. And with JPMorgan and UBS joining the growing list of firms trimming their expectations, Wall Street is signaling that Tesla’s AI future may take longer—and cost more—than investors had anticipated.
Photo: TY Lim / Shutterstock
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Tesla po slabém výsledku za 2. čtvrtletí klesla po uzavření trhu zhruba o 4 % a Wall Street jí snižuje cenové cíle. Tržby 28,24 miliardy USD sice překonaly odhady, ale zisk na akcii (EPS) 0,33 USD výrazně zaostal.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) delivered a split-decision quarter: a big revenue beat wrapped around an ugly EPS miss. Wall Street trimmed price targets without walking away from the story. Our model comes out constructive.
Tesla trades at $374.01 after a roughly 4% after-hours slide that erased $71 billion in market cap. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $413.49, implying 10.56% upside over twelve months. The recommendation is buy with 90% confidence level confidence.
Metric Value Current Price $374.01 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $413.49 Upside 10.56% Recommendation BUY Confidence 90% A Record Quarter That Cost $71 Billion Tesla posted $28.24 billion in Q2 revenue, up 25.52% year over year and beating consensus by 7.10%, on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles.
Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 estimate by 38.51%, operating margin compressed to 1.4%, and free cash flow flipped to negative $1.09 billion as capex surged to $5.79 billion. Shares are down 5.18% this week and 16.83% year to date, though up 12.62% over the past year.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead The bull case rests on Tesla’s transition to an AI and robotics platform. FSD attach rates on North American deliveries exceeded 55%, with 1.48 million active subscriptions (up 56% YoY).
Cybercab production has begun at Gigafactory Texas, robotaxi service covers seven US metros, and Optimus lines are installed at Fremont. Energy storage deployments jumped to 13.5 GWh. Our bull scenario points to $479.66 within twelve months, a 28.25% return.
The Risks Worth Watching The bear case flips the spending story. Operating income fell 56.88% YoY, opex jumped 47%, and regulatory credits collapsed to $146 million. Reddit sentiment tracked bearish (24 to 36) after the earnings report. Multiple analysts slashed the price target after earnings.
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Bulls counter that margin damage is self-inflicted, with heavy AI infrastructure and stock-based comp from the 2025 CEO Performance Award weighing on GAAP profits, while operating cash flow rose 84.9% to $4.70 billion and cash swelled to $43.52 billion. Our bear scenario lands at $365.83, a 2.19% decline.
How Tesla Compares to GM and Rivian General Motors (NYSE:GM) is the anti-Tesla trade. GM posted its 16th consecutive earnings beat, with adjusted earnings up 41.3% and raised full-year 2026 guidance, plus roughly 75 million shares retired in the past year. That execution at a fraction of Tesla’s 370 P/E is why our $413.49 target must earn its premium through AI optionality, not vehicle economics.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is the pure-play EV comp fighting for scale. Rivian lacks Tesla’s 480,126-unit quarterly cadence and $43.52 billion cash pile, making Tesla’s balance sheet look conservative and supporting our target as reasonable rather than aggressive.
Tesla Price Prediction 2026 to 2030 Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $413.49, a buy with 90% confidence. Q2 shows demand strength (record deliveries, revenue beat) with misses concentrated in discretionary AI and Optimus spending Tesla chose to accelerate.
I’d buy here if capex converts into robotaxi and Optimus revenue on the 2027 timeline management outlined. I’d stay on the sidelines if operating margin fails to recover above 5% by year-end.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $413.49 2027 $445.00 2028 $475.00 2029 $505.00 2030 $538.14 These projections assume Tesla executes on robotaxi monetization and Optimus reaches commercial scale. Significant upside or downside could result from FSD adoption curves and margin recovery pace.
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Americký úřad NHTSA odmítl žádost o zahájení vyšetřování údajné závady nouzového mechanického odjištění dveří u 179 701 vozů Tesla Model 3 modelového roku 2022. Uvedl, že problém má řešit širší regulační proces.
Item 1 of 2 A display of a Tesla Model 3 using Full Self-Driving Supervised on a highway in San Diego, California, U.S., April 15, 2026. Picture taken with a long exposure. REUTERS/Mike Blake//File Photo
[1/2]A display of a Tesla Model 3 using Full Self-Driving Supervised on a highway in San Diego, California, U.S., April 15, 2026. Picture taken with a long exposure. REUTERS/Mike Blake//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has denied a petition seeking a defect investigation into the emergency mechanical door release on about 180,000 Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab Model 3 vehicles.
NHTSA said the petition did not present evidence of a likely safety-related defect warranting an investigation and that the issue would be more appropriately addressed through an ongoing rulemaking process.
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The petition covered 179,701 model-year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles and alleged the manual door release was difficult to locate after a crash if the vehicle lost power, increasing the risk of occupants getting trapped.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Tesla's electronically operated door handles have faced scrutiny after several crashes in which occupants were reportedly unable to exit their vehicles after losing power, prompting broader calls for stricter federal safety standards governing emergency door releases.
The agency said it had identified one consumer complaint involving a 2022 Model 3 that alleged the mechanical door release was concealed and unlabeled after the vehicle lost electrical power in a front-impact crash. The petition cited the same vehicle.
NHTSA said the current federal safety rules governing vehicle door locks and latches do not address the labeling or location of emergency mechanical door releases.
The agency added that it has already begun a separate rulemaking process after granting approval to another petition that sought a new federal safety standard for more obvious emergency door-egress systems.
It said the broader rulemaking, rather than a defect investigation, was the appropriate way to address the issue.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Joyjeet Das and Shinjini Ganguli
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Tesla na konferenčním hovoru k výsledkům uvedla, že brzy začne vyrábět třetí generaci robota Optimus ve Fremontu v oblasti San Francisco Bay Area. Musk zároveň varoval, že rozjezd bude pomalý, protože pro řadu komponent Optimus neexistuje zavedený dodavatelský řetězec.
A prototype of Tesla's Optimus robot. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images Elon Musk built Tesla into the world's most valuable carmaker. Now he's betting the company's future on a robot that walks on two legs.
Musk predicts its robot, Optimus, could become "the biggest product ever," with legions of the humanoid robots working in factories, doing household chores, and eventually building more robots. He even has a name for them in the plural: "Optimi."
But Tesla has yet to prove the robot can navigate the physical world or perform useful work autonomously, much less that it can be manufactured by the millions.
On Tesla's earnings call this week, Musk offered few details about Optimus and tempered expectations for how quickly production would increase. He said Tesla would begin producing its third-generation robot "soon" in Fremont in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Tesla is competing in an increasingly crowded humanoid market. Agility Robotics, which plans to go public, has deployed its Digit robot across nine customer facilities, while Figure AI has announced deployments in logistics and distribution centers this year. Sunday Robotics, 1X, and Weave Robotics are preparing to ship robots into homes this fall.
Guy Hoffman, an associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Cornell University who leads its human-robot collaboration lab, called humanoids a "fantasy product."
Autonomous cars took about 20 years to reach the market after the technology was first shown to work, he told Business Insider. Building humanoids is even harder, and a fully autonomous machine has yet to be developed.
"Humanoid robots are a very risky bet," Hoffman said. "I don't see the product having a viable future in the near term."
Tesla's first-generation Optimus production line in Fremont, California. Tesla Musk has never shied away from moonshot projects. But even he has acknowledged that Optimus is harder to develop than Tesla's Model X, Cybertruck, or gigafactories. If Tesla pulls it off, Musk believes Optimus could usher in "sustainable abundance," a future in which AI and robotics make human labor largely optional.
Tesla did not repond to a request for comment from Business Insider
Here's everything we know about Optimus so far:
From human to humanoidMusk introduced the "Tesla Bot" in 2021 with a person dancing in a robot costume.
Three years later, Optimus robots danced, served drinks, and spoke with guests at Tesla's "We, Robot" event. The robots walked on their own, but more complex movements, such as pouring drinks, handing out desserts, and interacting with attendees, were assisted by remote human operators.
Tesla hasn't yet revealed what the next version of Optimus will look like. All we know is that it stands nearly six feet tall and has a humanlike design, a form that one Silicon Valley investor dismissed to Business Insider as a "parlor trick". Musk has defended humanoids, arguing that robots must resemble people to perform the full range of human tasks.
Chinese companies, including Unitree and UBTech, accounted for about 90% of humanoid shipments last year, according to technology research firm Omdia. Musk has argued that Optimus will be much more sophisticated than its Chinese rivals, but has shared few details so far.
"Optimus is designed to have a lot of intelligence and to have the same electromechanical dexterity, if not higher, than a human," Musk said on a podcast earlier this year. "Unitree does not have that."
Where Optimus stands nowEven though Tesla has not publicly unveiled the next-generation Optimus, it released photos this week of the Fremont production line, where manufacturing is expected to begin soon. Musk previously said that Tesla was keeping the robot under wraps to prevent competitors from copying its design.
Tesla stopped producing the Model S and Model X in Fremont earlier this year to make room for an Optimus line designed to eventually produce a million robots a year. A second line under construction in Austin is planned to have an annual capacity of 10 million robots.
Tesla's first-generation Optimus production line in Fremont, California. Tesla The first bots will join Tesla's "Optimus Academy," where they will practice tasks and generate data used to improve the AI models that serve as their "brains." Musk has said that 10,000 to 30,000 robots will refine their real-world skills at the academy.
On the company's earnings call this week, AI chief Ashok Elluswamy said that the training could push the robots' capabilities to a "superhuman level."
Musk cautioned investors this week that production will ramp slowly because there is no established supply chain for many Optimus components.
Tesla has three big problems to solveTo make Optimus a reality, Musk says Tesla must solve three problems: intelligence, hands, and mass production.
First, the robot must learn to understand and move through the physical world. Musk believes Tesla's self-driving work gives it a head start because Optimus can use Tesla-designed AI chips and technology developed to help its cars interpret camera footage.
Tesla has adapted its driving simulator, a virtual environment used to train and test its self-driving technology, to train millions of virtual robots. But simulations cannot capture every real-world scenario, so Tesla also needs data from physical tasks. Tesla employees have recorded themselves performing factory jobs, for instance.
Hoffman, the Cornell professor, said Musk is underestimating how much harder humanoid robotics is than self-driving.
"It's like playing checkers versus doing nuclear physics," he said. Humanoids must balance on two legs without falling, he added, and today's AI models are still far from operating reliably in the physical world.
The second challenge is what Musk calls the "hands problem": replicating the human hand with motors, sensors, and software. A robot hand must combine strength, precision, and flexibility in a remarkably small space, making it exceptionally difficult to engineer.
Tesla has not unveiled the latest version of Optimus to prevent competitors from copying its design. Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images On Tesla's earnings call this week, Musk said Optimus is being designed to have "human and then superhuman dexterity." Achieving that has required Tesla to develop custom motors, gears, and sensors.
The final challenge is scaling up manufacturing. Musk has warned that early production will be "agonizingly slow." But once Tesla starts producing a million robots a year — the timeline for which is still unclear — he estimates each Optimus could cost about $20,000 to $25,000 to produce.
How Optimus fits into Musk's AI empireMusk has increasingly talked about a "convergence" across his business empire, which is becoming more intertwined around AI.
Ahead of and during Tesla's earnings call this week, shareholders and analysts pressed Musk about a rumored merger with SpaceX. Musk wouldn't comment on the speculation, but highlighted the company's synergies, including the Robotaxi and AI businesses.
Musk has previously explained how Optimus could work with SpaceX's technology, which acquired xAI in February. Each robot would have enough computing power to perform some tasks independently, while xAI's Grok could coordinate larger groups, he said.
"Let's say you wanted to build a factory," Musk said earlier this year. "Grok could organize the Optimus robots, assign them tasks to build the factory floor to produce whatever you want."
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Rya is a senior reporter at Business Insider covering physical AI and robotics. She writes about factory automation, humanoid robots, and the race to collect the real-world data needed to bring AI into the physical world. She previously worked at The San Francisco Standard, where she reported on tech culture and autonomous vehicles. She has a bachelor’s degree in history and politics from Pomona College and a master’s in history from the University of Cambridge. Rya lives in San Francisco. Contact her at [email protected] or on Signal at rjetha.07. Use a personal email address, a nonwork WiFi network, and a nonwork device. Here's our guide to sharing information securely.
Tesla a Elon Musk zřejmě ustupují od robotaxi, protože tento projekt podle článku ztratil dynamiku. To zvyšuje pochybnosti o krátkodobé komercializaci.
SummaryTesla, Inc. and CEO Elon Musk appear to be deprioritizing the robotaxi initiative.Momentum in TSLA's robotaxi business has stalled, raising doubts about near-term commercialization.This shift may impact TSLA's growth narrative and valuation tied to autonomous driving.Investors should reassess expectations for robotaxi-driven upside in TSLA's investment thesis. Naypong/iStock via Getty Images
Elon Musk and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) seem to be losing interest in its robotaxi business, as it appears to have stalled.
Ignoring His Previous Promises So much has changed in a year. A year ago, Elon Musk
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Nasdaq uzavřel o 2,2 % níže, protože investory znejistily hospodářské výsledky Tesly a Alphabetu a jejich vyšší plánované kapitálové výdaje. Ceny ropy zároveň vystoupaly nad 100 USD za barel.
4:15pm: Nasdaq closes deep in the red US stocks ended sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq leading the losses as investors dumped technology shares after earnings from Tesla and Alphabet failed to ease concerns about rising spending.
The Nasdaq fell 2.2% to 25,138, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 7,408. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 507 points, or 1%, to close at 51,712.
Despite reporting strong revenue growth, Tesla and Alphabet came under heavy selling pressure after both companies warned that capital expenditures are set to climb, raising fresh questions about profitability and free cash flow. The disappointing market reaction weighed on the broader technology and communications sectors, dragging the Nasdaq to its steepest decline in weeks.
Adding to the pressure, oil prices surged toward the $100-a-barrel mark as escalating conflict in the Middle East fueled fears of supply disruptions. The jump in crude prices reignited inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields to their highest levels of the year and further denting appetite for growth stocks.
Investors are increasingly worried that higher energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's path on interest rates, particularly if inflation proves more persistent than expected.
Attention now turns to Intel, which is set to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell, with investors looking for further clues on the health of the semiconductor industry after a bruising session for the broader tech sector.
3:40pm: Proactive news headlines Custom Health Holdings Inc (TSX:CHLT) initiated Buy-rated coverage from Stifel with a C$12 price target, with analysts highlighting significant upside driven by the company's medication management platform. 374Water Inc (NASDAQ:SCWO, FRA:8LL) said a US Army Corps of Engineers report independently validated its AirSCWO technology, demonstrating 99.9993% destruction and removal efficiency for PFAS during testing. Royalty Management Holding Corp (NASDAQ:RMCO) said its royalty partner ReElement Technologies secured new financing to expand operations, a move expected to increase royalty revenue under their existing agreement. Replenish Nutrients Holding Corp (CSE:ERTH, OTC:VVIVF, FRA:7KE) closed the $7.5 million equity portion of a previously announced $15 million strategic investment from SRC Agrominerals Sales, with the convertible debenture portion expected to close in August 2026. 2:30pm: Market movers Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell despite record vehicle sales and stronger-than-expected revenue as investors focused on weaker profitability and future growth concerns. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares dropped despite beating earnings and revenue forecasts as investors weighed concerns around valuation and expectations following the results. American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL, XETRA:A1G) shares fell despite beating second-quarter earnings expectations as the carrier warned that higher fuel costs could pressure third-quarter results. T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS, XETRA:TM5) reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings but saw shares decline after revenue narrowly missed Wall Street estimates. 374Water Inc (NASDAQ:SCWO, FRA:8LL) said a US Army Corps of Engineers report independently validated its AirSCWO technology, showing 99.9993% destruction and removal efficiency for PFAS during a demonstration. RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX, XETRA:5UR) shares climbed after the aerospace and defense company delivered better-than-expected second-quarter results and raised its full-year 2026 outlook. Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) shares declined after stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings were offset by a weaker-than-expected third-quarter outlook. International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) shares slipped after second-quarter revenue and earnings missed expectations and the company lowered its full-year revenue growth forecast. Replenish Nutrients Holding Corp (CSE:ERTH, OTC:VVIVF, FRA:7KE) closed a $7.5 million equity investment from SRC. 12:50pm: Oil prices surge after Houthi attacks Oil prices surged above US$100 a barrel on Thursday after Houthi rebels claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising fresh concerns over global energy supplies and rattling financial markets.
“Two of the world’s busiest shipping corridors are under threat in the same month, and markets are only just beginning to work out what that means," said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.
"The timing is awkward for the Federal Reserve, which meets on July 29. Inflation had climbed for three straight months to 4.2% in May, its highest level in years, before cooling to 3.5% in June largely because gasoline prices fell nearly 10% during the brief ceasefire between the US and Iran.
"With that ceasefire now collapsed and oil back above $100, the drop which gave the Fed room to relax may already be reversing."
11:45am: Alphabet's spending rattles investors Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares fell more than 6% after investors looked past better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and focused on the company’s soaring AI spending.
The Google parent reported revenue of $119.8 billion and earnings per share of $9.11, beating Wall Street forecasts, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 82% year over year.
However, quarterly capital expenditure doubled to $44.9 billion, keeping Alphabet on pace for up to $190 billion in spending this year, while free cash flow dropped sharply. Investor sentiment was also weighed down by reports that Google delayed its Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model, although the company has disputed those claims.
11:00am: Tesla sinks on spending, profit Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares were down about 14% after the electric vehicle maker reported second-quarter results that topped revenue expectations but missed on profit.
Revenue rose 26% year over year to $28.24 billion, while deliveries reached a record 480,126 vehicles, marking the first annual growth in two years. Services revenue climbed 50% and Full Self-Driving subscriptions increased 56%, with the company also reporting its largest order backlog since 2023.
However, adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share missed forecasts, while gross and operating margins weakened as lower vehicle prices, declining regulatory credit sales and rising costs weighed on profitability.
Heavy capital spending also pushed free cash flow into a deficit.
10am: Nasdaq leads losses as Tesla and Alphabet slide US stocks have extended yesterday's losses in early deals, with Tesla dropping over 10% to lead the Nasdaq down 1.8%.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are both off more than 0.9%.
Alphabet fell 6.6%, with other Mag 7 names dropping too, including Amazon and Meta both slipping more than 3%.
Biggest faller on the S&P is pest controller Rollins, down 12% after reporting weaker second-quarter revenue growth than expected.
Semis are also being sold again, with Microchip Technology, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments among the Nasdaq's biggest fallers.
Top of the S&P leaderboard is United Rentals after saying it will increase its spending on its fleet this year and raising full-year guidance.
9.20am: Record low US jobless claims US initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since 1969.
New unemployment claims fall to 187K, down from 209K, while the market forecast was for a small rise to 210K.
"While seasonal factors may be impacting the headline number at the margins, the extremely low level of claims highlights a low layoff rate and the strength underlying the labor market," says Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics.
"In the wake of moderating jobless claims, continued claims fell a touch further in the week ended July 11, with the four-week moving average creeping lower.
"The decent pace of nonfarm payroll gains amid weak labor-supply conditions should translate into lower continued claims in the weeks ahead."
8.30am: Iran war has entered a more dangerous phase, RBC warns The Iran conflict has entered a "decidedly more dangerous phase", with Red Sea oil flows and critical infrastructure increasingly at risk, according to RBC Capital Markets.
Brent crude has topped $99.30 in recent minutes, but commodity strategist Helima Croft says these prices are a "lagging indicator of the extreme pressure building in the region".
Croft warns that the reported targeting of two Saudi tankers by Yemen's Houthis could cause a "material reduction" in Red Sea oil shipments and undermine the belief that "the market always finds a workaround".
Prices could surpass the 2022 peak of $128 a barrel or even reach the 2008 high of $146 in a full regional war, Croft warns.
She says alternative routes for tankers would significantly increase costs and extend journeys to Asia by around four weeks to roughly 54 days.
Iran's attacks on Kuwaiti desalination facilities are described as "especially concerning", with Kuwait relying on desalination for 90% of its drinking water.
Some Gulf cities could reportedly have only seven days of clean water if plants were disabled.
7.45am: Nasdaq and Dow set to extend losses Wall Street is set for a moderately lower open on Thursday after mixed results from Alphabet and Tesla, while a fresh surge in oil prices revived concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all down around 0.3%.
This would see losses extended from the day before, when the Nasdaq dropped 0.6% to 25,691, the S&P fell 0.1% to 7,499, and the Dow finished essentially flat, down six points at 52,219.
After the closing bell, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) beat revenue and earnings forecasts, with cloud revenue surging 82%, but its shares fell in after-hours trading after the Google owner raised its planned capital expenditure to as much as $205 billion this year. Shares were down 4.1% in pre-market trading.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares declined 6.2% after reporting its first quarter of negative free cash flow in more than two years as operating costs surged.
European markets were also lower, led by a 1.7% decline in Milan as semiconductor manufacturer STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) fell sharply after weaker second-quarter earnings and soft third-quarter guidance disappointed investors following a three-month rally.
In commodities, WTI crude has jumped 4.1% on Thursday morning to above $90.65 a barrel, its highest level in six weeks, as US Central Command confirmed another round of strikes against Iran.
"Strikes between the US and Iran show no sign of easing, and the Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, raising fears that the conflict is widening," said Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank.
This has raised fresh supply fears as Saudi Arabia has redirected oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, prompting "fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock", with investors pricing in higher inflation and a more hawkish path for central banks.
Fed futures now indicate a 36% chance of an interest-rate increase next week. The European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged when it announces its latest decision later today.
Before the bell, earnings are due from defence groups RTX and Lockheed Martin, telecoms names T-Mobile and Nokia, and other heavyweights including Thermo Fisher, TotalEnergies, Blackstone, Freeport-McMoRan, Comcast and Honeywell.
After the close, attention turns to Intel and SAP, along with gold miner Newmont.
Američtí regulátoři začnou připravovat nová pravidla pro bezpečný výstup z vozidel kvůli incidentům s elektronickými klikami, včetně těch u Tesly. NHTSA to spojuje s peticí týkající se nouzového mechanického odjištění dveří u vozů Tesla Model 3 z roku 2022.
U.S. regulators will begin developing new requirements for automakers to ensure drivers and passengers can safely exit their vehicles. The new rule-making process, outlined in a regulatory filing and first reported by Bloomberg, follows a series of incidents, including fatal ones, in which people have become stuck inside cars with flush, electronically operated door handles like those found on Tesla vehicles.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced the new rule-making in response to a petition that asked the agency to open a safety defect investigation into the emergency mechanical door release design on 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles. The petition argued that door release doesn’t comply with federal motor vehicle standards.
NHTSA denied taking the action that the petitioners wanted, saying that the issue would be best addressed through rulemaking rather than a defect investigation.
If the agency adopts new rules, all automakers will need to follow them. However, it’s important to note that “commencing” rulemaking doesn’t mean new ones will be developed, according to NHTSA.
The decision comes less than a year after NHTSA opened an investigation into Tesla’s door handles after receiving nine reports from owners who were unable to get into their cars, sometimes with children still inside. The probe followed Bloomberg’s own investigation into a series of incidents in which Tesla drivers and passengers became trapped inside their vehicles following a crash.
While Tesla vehicles do have manual door releases, they are located only inside the car. In an initial review by NHTSA, investigators found the handles may not work if the electronic door locks don’t receive enough voltage from the vehicle’s battery system.
Tesla designer Franz von Holzhausen said last year that the company was working on a redesign of its door handles. Rivian said last year it was changing the interior door handle design on its R2 SUV to put the manual release in a more visible location, closer to the electrically powered door handles.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
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Francie odmítla schválit systém Tesla FSD v současné podobě pro silnice EU kvůli bezpečnostním obavám. Jde o první veřejné odmítnutí této iniciativy ze strany členského státu EU.
The silhouette of Elon Musk and Tesla logo are seen in this illustration taken June 11, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesFrance cited safety concerns over Tesla FSD in its current formThe Netherlands provisionally approved FSD on Dutch roadsBelgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania followed suit ahead of a possible EU vote this fallAMSTERDAM, July 23 (Reuters) - France opposes the use of Tesla's (TSLA.O), opens new tab Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistance software in its current form on roads in the European Union due to safety concerns, its transportation minister said.
The French stance on the FSD software is the first public rejection by an EU government of a Dutch-led initiative to approve the technology for use throughout Europe.
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In a video statement released on Wednesday, Philippe Tabarot pointed to worries over speeding and driver inattention.
"In France, we believe that, while this system brings a number of technological advances, the safety tradeoffs are not yet sufficient to justify authorisation in its current form," he said.
Tabarot added that other European countries shared France's concerns regarding the software, though he did not name them.
Reuters reported in June that Sweden may also oppose approval.
Tesla's FSD is a driver assistance system that can accelerate, brake, and steer a car, while its human driver remains ready to intervene.
The Netherlands' road authority RDW approved the technology for use on Dutch roads on a provisional basis in April, prompting Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania to do the same in advance of a possible bloc-wide vote on the plan this fall.
The RDW could not immediately be reached for comment on Thursday.
FSD software is seen as a selling point and revenue-generator for Tesla, whose European registrations are gradually recovering following a slump last year.
Responding to Tabarot's remarks in a statement on X, Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote that "delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives".
Tabarot said France is continuing technical discussions with the Netherlands and other EU countries over the technology.
Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Joe Bavier
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Tesla uvedla, že Optimus se ve Fremontu dostal do výroby a učí se pozorováním, bez předem napsaného kódu. Musk tvrdí, že má jít o prvního humanoidního robota schopného obecně vykonávat úkoly.
Optimus moved into production this quarter at Tesla’s Fremont, California, factory, where the humanoid robot learns from what it sees instead of code written to instruct it.
“You’ve probably seen lots of impressive demonstrations of robots on the internet,” CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday (July 22) on the company’s second-quarter earnings call. “Those demonstrations are pre-programmed or remote controlled. There is no humanoid robot that is actually able to do generalized tasks. Optimus will be the first one that is capable of doing that.”
That scalability is the point. Programming a robot for every possible task isn’t feasible, but learning by observation is virtually limitless: factory floor footage runs continuously, and video of humans performing everyday tasks already exists at internet scale. Like a new employee, Optimus practices, fails, learns and improves, the company says.
“Just like Full Self-Driving, Tesla’s driver-assistance software, we have access to a broad fleet of humans giving us data from all of the workers at our factory,” said Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s vice president of AI. “Optimus can learn quite a bit from observing them perform their tasks.”
Optimus Has No Existing Supply Chain, So Tesla Is Building One Getting Optimus built at scale is a separate challenge. Cars draw on decades of existing suppliers for parts like glass and body panels; Optimus has no such precedent. Every part is new and every supplier had to be found from scratch or brought in-house.
“The difficulty of scaling the production ramp is proportionate to the newness of the parts in the robot,” Musk said. “With Optimus, there is no supply chain.”
Karen Cattan, Tesla’s VP of supply chain, said the company builds components itself when outside partners fall short. “In certain cases where we don’t find a great partner, we’ve never hesitated from insourcing it,” she said. Tesla is also lining up outside suppliers for chips and batteries. Samsung is building a manufacturing facility in Texas. Micron, one of the world’s largest memory chip makers, has given Tesla an allocation at a time when supply is tight. Panasonic has invested in battery cell production to support the ramp.
Tesla has also placed equipment orders for a chip development facility in Austin that puts design, testing and production under one roof, compressing a process that typically takes months into weeks. No such facility exists anywhere else on earth, Musk said. “It’s going to be the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we’ve ever made at Tesla,” he said.
Robotaxi Fleet Has Driven 380,000 Miles Without a Notable Incident While Optimus is a longer-term bet, Tesla’s robotaxi program, fully driverless vehicles that pick up and drop off passengers with no one behind the wheel, is proving the same technology in the real world.
Tesla has logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised robotaxi driving across seven U.S. markets with zero notable incidents, Elluswamy said. The fleet is growing at double-digit rates week over week and Tesla expects that pace to hold through year end.
The program started roughly a year ago in Austin with safety monitors in the car. By late last year it was running with no one on board, and it has since expanded across Florida, Texas and the Bay Area. “Robotaxi growth so far has been literally exponential while keeping an impeccable safety record,” Elluswamy said.
Both robotaxis and Optimus run on the same principle: a machine that learns from what it sees, improves through repetition and eventually outperforms a system following a fixed script. Robotaxis are proving the model works. Optimus is the next test of it.
What Else Stood Out Full Self-Driving, Tesla’s software that handles steering, acceleration and braking without human input, now has nearly 1.5 million paying customers globally. In North America, 55% of Q2 North American deliveries had FSD enabled at purchase. Tesla is adding Starlink satellite connectivity to the Cybercabs. Tesla ended Q2 with its biggest order backlog since 2023. Model Y set sales records in the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said. The Tesla Semi, the company’s electric freight truck, will get autonomous driving capability by end of this year or early next. Optimus will eventually have superhuman dexterity, finer motor control than a human hand, Musk said. The human hand is more remarkable the closer you study it, he added, and Optimus is designed to match and then exceed it. Second-Quarter Results and Future Outlook Tesla reported record second-quarter deliveries with sequential growth of 60% in the Americas, 27% in Asia Pacific and 12% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, fell from 19.2% to 16.3%, driven by the non-recurrence of a $230 million warranty benefit and tariff relief from Q1. Adjusted for those items, margins were approximately flat.
Service margins, which include used cars, Supercharging, service centers and insurance, hit an all-time high of 14.1%, up from 9.2%. Free cash flow turned negative as capital expenditure more than doubled from the previous quarter, and Tesla now expects full-year capital expenditure above $25 billion.
ToplineElon Musk’s fortune was cut by more than $18 billion on Thursday amid the worst intraday selloff in Tesla shares in more than a year, following the automaker’s earnings report that disappointed Wall Street, as analysts called for Musk’s firm to bring “tangible” results for its robotics and robotaxi businesses.
The automaker reported earnings that disappointed Wall Street, with plans to spend billions more on AI.
Getty Images
Key FactsShares of Tesla plunged 14.1% as of Thursday afternoon, pacing what would be the largest single-day decline for the stock since June 5, 2025 (14.2%).
That drop in Tesla’s share price lowered Musk’s net worth by $18.6 billion to $731.7 billion, even as he remains the world’s richest person ahead of Google co-founder Larry Page ($263.8 billion) and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos ($245.4 billion).
Tesla's slump follows the company’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, in which the automaker reported $28.2 billion in revenue, beating consensus analyst estimates of $27.2 billion, according to FactSet, while posting earnings that fell well below projections of 55 cents at 33 cents.
Chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja, during Tesla’s earnings call, reiterated plans for the automaker to spend $25 billion this year and more in the coming years.
That brought some criticism from Wall Street: Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note that while Tesla’s spending is a “necessary investment,” the company will need to present “tangible” milestones for its robotaxi and Optimus programs.
Canaccord Genuity analysts echoed that sentiment, writing the firm wanted to see meaningful robotaxi deployments over the next six months as Tesla ramped up its AI strategy.
surprising factCanaccord analysts noted they hoped to see momentum around a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. In Tesla’s earnings call, Musk deflected a question about a possible tie-up following months of speculation: “We can’t talk about, you know, combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call—it has got to be done with the appropriate process.” Musk did note there is “more and more overlap” between his two firms, pointing to Starlink’s integration in Cybertrucks, and TeraFab, a proposed AI chip manufacturing venture between Tesla, SpaceX and the former xAI, which is now a SpaceX subsidiary.
what to watch forSpaceX will launch its 13th test flight of the Starship rocket on Thursday, its first since the rocket maker’s initial public offering last month. An earlier launch scheduled for last week was aborted after Musk said some of the rocket’s engines failed to start. That pushed SpaceX shares down by more than 4%, lowering Musk’s net worth by more than $45 billion.
contraSpaceX shares were largely flat on the day, down only 0.1% as of around 1:45 p.m. EDT, having little impact on Musk’s fortune.
key backgroudnMusk’s fortune has fallen more than $700 billion from its peak, which came shortly after SpaceX’s IPO. A trading debut for his SpaceX made him a trillionaire, and surging shares in the rocket maker boosted him to a high of $1.45 trillion before a weekslong selloff that has since pushed his net worth below pre-IPO levels. The latest dip in Tesla shares followed speculation from shareholders about whether Musk would reveal updates for Tesla’s Optimus robotics or robotaxi plans, with submitted questions ahead of the automaker’s earnings asking why its robotaxi business had been “stalled.” Another question posed: “What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short-term goals that they’ve set for themselves?”
further readingForbesMusk Says Tesla And SpaceX ‘Can’t Talk About’ Merging On Earnings Call—But Here’s What He Did SayBy Ty Roush
Tesla vykázala z podílu ve SpaceX nepeněžní zisk před zdaněním ve výši 1,005 miliardy USD, který tvořil zhruba 68,5 % jejího čistého zisku podle GAAP ve výši 1,114 miliardy USD.
Buried in Tesla’s earnings report’s cash flow statement is a $1.005 billion pretax unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment, equal to $763 million after tax.
While Tesla didn’t receive any cash or sell any shares, the after-tax gain accounted for roughly 68.5% of the company’s $1.114 billion GAAP net income. The revaluation of Tesla’s SpaceX investment is one of the quarter’s biggest contributors to the EV maker’s bottom line.
Even though Tesla didn’t sell a single SpaceX share or receive any cash from the investment.
SpaceX Bounty: Paper Gain, Not Cash ProfitThe gain resulted from an increase in the estimated value of its SpaceX investment, which it purchased earlier this year for $2.002 billion. The company owns less than 1% of SpaceX and does not control the aerospace company.
Tesla recorded a pre-tax $1.005 billion gain on the investment. Because the gain was non-cash, the company removed it when reconciling net income to operating cash flow and also excluded it from its non-GAAP earnings presentation.
The numbers put the investment into perspective. The pre-tax paper gain alone was more than two-and-a-half times Tesla’s operating profit (which was $398 million).
Tesla’s automotive, energy storage and services businesses collectively produced just $398 million of operating profit, while the accounting gain on its SpaceX investment added more than $1 billion before taxes.
So, nearly 70% of Tesla’s GAAP earnings came from a non-cash increase in the estimated value of its SpaceX stake—not from manufacturing or selling products.
Why Tesla’s GAAP And Adjusted Earnings Tell Different StoriesThe SpaceX gain was included in Tesla’s official GAAP earnings under accounting rules governing equity investments, even though the company did not monetize its stake.
The SpaceX gain also helps explain why Tesla reported different GAAP and adjusted earnings.
Tesla reported GAAP net income of $1.114 billion, which included the after-tax SpaceX gain. It also reported non-GAAP net income of $1.153 billion, excluding the $763 million after-tax SpaceX gain along with several other items, including $989 million of stock-based compensation expense, an $87 million digital-asset loss and certain tax adjustments.
Although Tesla removed the $763 million after-tax SpaceX gain, it added back an even larger $989 million stock-based compensation expense, along with other adjustments, resulting in slightly higher adjusted earnings.
Why Investors Should Watch ItThe disclosure doesn’t mean Tesla’s automotive business suddenly became less important, nor does it suggest the company generated an extra $763 million in cash.
Instead, it underscores how investments outside Tesla’s core operations can materially influence reported earnings under GAAP accounting. If SpaceX’s valuation continues to rise—or falls in future quarters—that stake could create meaningful swings in Tesla’s reported profit even if vehicle deliveries, energy storage deployments and operating performance remain largely unchanged.
For investors, the quarter served as a reminder that one of the biggest drivers of Tesla’s headline earnings wasn’t what happened inside its factories. It was the changing value of a minority stake in another Elon Musk company.
Photo courtesy: Rokas Tenys on Shutterstock.com
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Tesla uvedla, že její Robotaxi ve 2. čtvrtletí ujela platícím zákazníkům asi 700 000 mil, oproti zhruba 1,1 milionu v 1. čtvrtletí. To je pokles asi o 36 %.
Tesla’s budding “Robotaxi” network drove fewer miles for paying customers in the second quarter than it did in the first, according to a chart the company released on Wednesday.
The quarter-over-quarter decline runs counter to Tesla’s rhetoric and actions in the past year. Tesla has staked much of its future on the idea of a massive, low-cost, cash-generating Robotaxi fleet — or going “balls to the wall for autonomy,” as CEO Elon Musk framed it in 2024. The quarterly step-down in Robotaxi miles also comes amid weakening profits in Tesla’s core businesses, which underperformed Wall Street’s expectations, according to figures released Wednesday. Tesla’s stock plunged more than 13% in early trading on Thursday.
At a passing glance, the chart appears to show steady growth in paid Robotaxi rides between August 2025 and June 2026. But the numbers displayed are cumulative, and when broken down by quarter, they show that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet of Model Y SUVs carrying paying passengers covered around 1.1 million miles in the first quarter. That fell to roughly 700,000 miles in the second quarter, a decline of about 36%.
That’s despite the fact that the company has expanded its nascent operation to six cities across Texas and Florida, with a mix of unsupervised and supervised vehicles.
Image Credits:Tesla It’s likely Tesla is counting the paid miles driven in the San Francisco Bay Area, too, even though these branded Robotaxis don’t have the state-required permits to operate autonomously and also have a safety driver behind the wheel. Tesla has referred to that operation as part of its “Robotaxi coverage.”
The decline in miles driven also comes as Tesla made a striking admission on a conference call Wednesday about its second-quarter results. In response to a question about how slowly Tesla is scaling the Robotaxi service, Musk said the company needs to “accumulate driving data that is specific to the Cybercab” — the company’s gold, purpose-built, two-seater sedan that is expected to make up the bulk of its autonomous vehicle fleet — “before we can put a lot of them on the road.”
“Unlike, say, Model 3, Model Y, and our other vehicles where we’ve got a lot of vehicles on the road, millions of vehicles on the road, we don’t have that for Cybercab. So we actually have to accumulate miles with Cybercabs that are retrofitted with steering wheels and acceleration and braking pedals, that kind of thing, to calibrate to the Cybercab chassis,” he said. “As we are confident about that, the number of Cybercabs in cities will increase dramatically.”
This represents something of a break from claims the company has made for years about how its fleet of nearly 10 million customer cars has been silently collecting data in the background to train future robotaxis (in addition to training the driver assistance software for consumers, which Tesla calls Full Self-Driving).
On the call, Tesla executives framed the slow progress as a matter of being cautious about safety.
“Our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone,” Musk said.
He then said he doesn’t want Tesla Robotaxis causing accidents because he thinks bad media coverage could lead to a regulatory crackdown.
“Although there are, I think, 30 to 40,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States alone, most of those do not generate any press, you don’t really read about almost any of those. But if we injure even one person, it will be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities,” he said.
Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, boasted that Tesla’s Robotaxis have had “zero notable incidents” while driving “more than 380,000 miles” without a safety operator onboard. He did not define what the company considers “notable incidents,” though he claimed that “any reports have been of other actors impacting us when we were stationary.”
Tesla has reported 22 crashes to the National Highway Safety Administration in the year since it started trialing its Robotaxi service. While most of them involve other cars crashing into Tesla’s Robotaxis, the company has reported three crashes caused by its teleoperators moving the vehicles remotely, and multiple instances of the cars hitting objects at low speeds including curbs, utility poles, and a tow truck’s bed.
This represents another narrative change for the company. Tesla spent years claiming that the largest hurdle to full-scale Robotaxi deployment was regulatory in nature — though the company never really specified what those prohibitive regulations were.
Now the company says proving safety is all that’s holding Robotaxis back. And although it is still in the very early stages, Tesla still chose this moment to take a victory lap about its decision to build an autonomy stack that doesn’t use radar or lidar sensors, like industry leader Waymo.
“Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need lidars, radars, HD maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely. Here, we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy with just cameras,” Elluswamy said.
Both Musk and Elluswamy also promised growth is coming. They noted that the number of unsupervised miles traveled has grown roughly 10% every week since Tesla started offering them at the end of last year.
“We’ll continue to scale, I think, very, very rapidly,” Musk said.
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Tesla uvedla, že rozšířila spolupráci se SpaceX o investici a novou rámcovou dohodu pro společné projekty včetně Terafab a Digital Optimus. Musk zároveň řekl, že Grok od SpaceX řídí technologický stack Tesla AI pro Digital Optimus.
The comments suggest SpaceX is becoming more than a technology partner—it is increasingly part of Tesla’s roadmap for artificial intelligence.
SpaceX’s Grok is Becoming Part of Tesla’s AI stackOne of the biggest revelations came when Musk described how Tesla’s Digital Optimus project works.
“SpaceX’s Grok, sort of the big model that is the manager of Digital Optimus and tells Digital Optimus what to do,” Musk said while explaining Tesla’s effort to build a software version of its humanoid robot.
According to Musk, Digital Optimus allows Tesla to train AI systems to operate computers in much the same way Full Self-Driving software learns to operate vehicles. Grok provides the higher-level instructions, while Tesla’s AI systems execute those tasks in real time before those capabilities are transferred to physical Optimus robots.
The comments offered one of Tesla’s clearest explanations yet of how it plans to combine large language models with autonomous robotics.
The Partnership Goes Beyond AIMusk said Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab will integrate Starlink connectivity, with plans to expand the satellite internet service to Tesla’s broader vehicle lineup where available. The goal is to ensure reliable connectivity for autonomous vehicles, particularly in areas where traditional cellular networks remain unreliable.
High-bandwidth connections could also enable passengers to stream entertainment or work while riding in autonomous vehicles.
Tesla also disclosed that it recently expanded its relationship with SpaceX through an investment and a new framework agreement, which executives said will support joint projects including Terafab and Digital Optimus.
A Bigger AI Ecosystem is EmergingThe collaboration doesn’t stop with software or connectivity.
Musk said Tesla’s proposed Terafab semiconductor initiative is aimed at developing advanced AI chips for Optimus, while also confirming SpaceX is involved in the effort. Separately, he described plans for AI “Megapods” that combine Tesla AI computers with conventional servers, allowing compute infrastructure to be deployed wherever electricity is available.
Taken together, the earnings call suggested Musk is building something larger than two separate companies sharing technology. Instead, Tesla increasingly appears to be leveraging SpaceX’s AI models, satellite network and engineering capabilities to accelerate its push into autonomous driving, robotics and AI infrastructure.
For investors, that could become one of the more important long-term takeaways from Tesla’s earnings. While quarterly results focused on vehicle sales and margins, Musk spent much of the call describing an ecosystem where SpaceX and Tesla are becoming increasingly interconnected as they pursue the next phase of AI development.
Photo Courtesy: Frederic Legrand – COMEO on Shutterstock.com
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Tesla ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 26 % na 28,2 miliardy USD, zatímco čistý zisk klesl o 5 % na 1,1 miliardy USD. Prodeje aut zůstaly jádrem byznysu, ale firma dál tlačí AI, robotiku a robotaxi.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) earnings showed that, at an extremely rapid pace, it has become two companies (at least). One makes and sells cars—the other gambles, often on what appears to be longshots, on AI and robotics. (Tesla does have an energy generation business which produced $3.1 billion, or 11% of the total, in the most recent quarter. It does not fit neatly into either silo.)
The proof that Tesla’s car business continues to be the revenue core is that at $20.5 billion, it was 73% of Tesla’s total revenue of $28.2 billion. Auto revenue was up 23% year over year in Tesla’s second quarter. Overall revenue rose 26%. Net income for the entire company was $1.1 billion, which was down 5% year over year.
Total vehicle deliveries were 480,126 in the quarter, up 25% year over year. Anyone who believes that Tesla’s car operations are in trouble is wrong. China sales may have been unstable over time. Tesla took a brutal beating in the EU last year, and lost the EV sales lead there to China’s BYD. However, this year, EU figures have gotten better. The US remains an EV graveyard, but Tesla is still the market leader, and what might have been major competitors like Ford (NYSE: F) have quit.
Tesla breaks out the status of what it calls its “robotics” operation. It reports that two facilities are under construction. One is in California, and the other is in Texas. Tesla reported, “The initial Optimus builds will be used in our Optimus Academy for training data collection and further functionality development. Additionally, we continued site development at Gigafactory Texas with building construction now in full swing.”
Tesla offered updates to its “robotaxi” business. It admitted that the effort is still in early stages, with wide-scale deployment contingent on both technological breakthroughs and regulatory approvals.
Capital expenditures jumped 142% to $5.8 billion from $2.4 billion in the same quarter last year. Part of the cost of the robotics business is AI training and development of hardware and software that make a robot a real robot (CEO Elon Musk has said that, in the future, the world will have billions of robots).
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The question is how the company actually gets broken apart. The self-driving parts of the auto business are really AI-based. The ultra-advanced autopilot business is growing rapidly. The system is called Full Self-Driving (Supervised). Tesla said “active FSD subscriptions” rose 56% in the quarter to 1.48 million. It does not function without a car, so it belongs with the auto operations. Similarly, the robotaxi business and its Cybercab are modes of transportation and, thus, cannot be separated from these car operations.
So what does that leave? Robotics and AI are what Musk says are the future of Tesla. That is at the core of the debate over Tesla’s valuation, which is $1.4 trillion. That makes it the 11th most valuable company in the world. The market caps of other major car companies are, in every case, a fraction of that.
Spin-outs and break-ups of public companies are meant as a way to unlock value that is locked because disparate businesses have been put together under one roof. Tesla should “unlock.” Let investors who want to invest in EVs and their software buy an EV stock. Let people who want to own a robotics company that relies on advanced AI features own a robotics company.
The challenge, of course, remains in the execution of such a split. While the automotive arm can provide the cash flow necessary to fund Musk’s more ambitious visions, the robotics side is what currently inflates Tesla’s staggering $1.4 trillion valuation. Once again, by separating them, the market would finally be forced to decide if the robotics venture is a revolutionary tech giant or a speculative longshot, all while allowing the car business to be judged on its industry-leading fundamentals.
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Tesla při hovoru k výsledkům zaujala opatrnější tón ohledně robotaxi a přiznala pomalejší rozšiřování po městech kvůli regulacím i provozním problémům.
SummaryCompaniesExecutives cited city-specific rules and operational snags for the measured rolloutAnalyst questioned why fleet size remains in the dozens, not hundredsTesla has contrasted its approach with Waymo's deliberate rolloutLOS ANGELES, July 23 (Reuters) - A year ago, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab CEO Elon Musk said the company's robotaxi network would expand at a "hyper-exponential rate" and be available to half the population of the U.S. by the end of 2025.
On Wednesday's earnings call, Musk and his executive team struck a more guarded tone as they fielded analysts' questions about a slower-than-expected rollout.
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Since launching a small robotaxi pilot in Austin in June 2025, Tesla has expanded to only a handful of other cities, in Texas and Florida, with service often limited to outlying areas.
Tesla said paying customers have traveled 2.5 million miles in its robotaxi service, including 380,000 miles in rides without an in-vehicle safety monitor.
Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi miles remain well below the more than 220 million autonomous miles driven by Waymo through the end of March, underscoring the lead Alphabet's self-driving unit holds in commercial deployment, Forrester analyst Paul Miller said.
Barclays analysts wrote earlier this month that Tesla's perceived advantage in robotaxis is its "ability to scale more rapidly," but instead it "has been seen by many investors as somewhat 'slow.'"
Investors have valued Tesla on the promise that robotaxis and its Optimus humanoid robots will one day become its primary revenue drivers.
The stock trades at more than 166 times forward earnings estimates, far above the multiples of traditional automakers and Big Tech companies. The stock, which has fallen nearly 17% this year as of last close, was down about 4% in premarket trading.
WHY THE ROLLOUT IS SLOWERBefore the Austin launch last year, Musk talked about how Tesla's technology is "a general solution that works anywhere," in contrast to the more deliberate, city-by-city approach of Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo, the U.S. leader in driverless taxis.
On Wednesday, Musk and other executives delved into the specific details of scaling up robotaxi service in individual cities.
"Regulatory situations are different city by city," said Lars Moravy, Tesla's vice president of vehicle engineering. "The reason we're expanding city by city is to make sure that we're meeting all of those one at a time."
CFO Vaibhav Taneja added "there are different kinks ... not just on the software front, but on the operations front, that we're trying to tackle."
He said the company wants to "sort these things out in a smaller fleet in a controlled manner" before going "really high in terms of deployment."
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan asked why the number of vehicles is still "in the dozens as opposed to hundreds." What is the "roadblock to start adding more vehicles on the ground?" he asked.
Tesla Vice President of AI Ashok Elluswamy said that even with a few vehicles, "you can get a lot of miles out of them."
He said the growth in robotaxi miles driven is "literally exponential. Just it's in the early part of the exponential. That's why it's hard for others to comprehend."
Musk on Wednesday's call reiterated that Tesla is balancing the pace of the expansion with safety. "We want to grow as fast as possible with robotaxi, without harm to anyone."
In an investor presentation in January, Tesla said that its robotaxis would expand to seven metro areas by the end of June: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Las Vegas.
Up until Tuesday, Tesla had only launched in three of those cities: Dallas, Houston and Miami, with service limited to outlying sections of Houston and Miami.
The company announced on Tuesday that it was "now in Tampa & Orlando," following several analyst reports ahead of earnings that mentioned the slow expansion.
But the service areas in those cities, like Miami and Houston, were limited to less-trafficked neighborhoods outside the city centers.
Reuters tested out the robotaxi service in the weeks after the Dallas and Houston launches and found long wait times, with sometimes no availability at all.
Reporting by Chris Kirkham in Los Angeles and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Mike Colias and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Chris Kirkham is a business reporter in Los Angeles who writes about Tesla, electric vehicles and the wider automotive industry. He previously worked at The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times, and has covered topics including tobacco, worker safety, gambling, and the economy over a two-decade career. Contact him at [email protected] or on Signal at chris_kirkham.51
Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
Elon Musk na výsledkové konferenci Tesla nepotvrdil ani nepopřel možné spojení se SpaceX. BNP Paribas varuje, že by to kvůli vysokému cash burn SpaceX mohlo znamenat ředění akcionářů.
On Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk stopped short of confirming a Tesla-SpaceX merger and did something arguably worse for shareholders of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction): he refused to shut the door.
Asked about synergies between his automaker and SpaceX, Musk told analysts, “Well, as you can tell from all the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there’s more and more overlap, especially with Terafab, that’s really going to be a gigantic project.” He then pulled back, adding, “But obviously, we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call, it has got to be done with the appropriate process.” Nothing was confirmed. Nothing was denied.
The overlap Musk referenced is already visible. Starlink connectivity is built into Cybertruck and planned across Tesla’s fleet, including Cybercab. The Grok chatbot is embedded in Tesla vehicles, Tesla is supplying batteries and manufacturing know-how to SpaceX, and Terafab is a jointly relevant AI chip facility. Q1 disclosures flagged a semiconductor fab under construction in Austin, and Tesla previously took a $2 billion equity stake in SpaceX. The integration is already operational.
The Dilution Problem Here is the part that should worry Tesla holders. BNP Paribas notes SpaceX’s cash flow is sharply negative. SpaceX is expected to burn roughly $30 billion this year and as much as $194 billion cumulatively through 2030. Folding that into Tesla would almost certainly require fresh equity raises, diluting existing shareholders. BNP Paribas has separately argued a merger “won’t save investors.”
That warning lands on top of a quarter that already rattled the base. Tesla posted Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, up 25.52% year over year and ahead of consensus, but non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 estimate by 38.51%. Operating margin compressed to 1.4%. Gross margin slipped to 16.8% from 17.2% a year earlier. Free cash flow swung to a negative $1.092 billion as capex jumped 141.81% year over year to $5.789 billion. Shares fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading, and TSLA is now down 16.83% year to date.
Markets are pricing this ambiguity in real time. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster raised his odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger from 80% to 90% after the call. Kalshi shows 52% odds of a merger by roughly May 2027. On Polymarket, the year-end 2026 announcement contract sits at 22.5%, with the September deadline at 9.5%.
No terms, structure, or timeline have been confirmed. That is the point. With operating income already down 56.88% year over year and a $25 billion capital budget in flight, Tesla investors now carry a second, unquantified risk: an equity-funded absorption of the most capital-hungry company in Musk’s orbit. Until Musk says otherwise, that risk is priced in and rising.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Elon Musk řekl, že Tesla má utrácet za AI co nejrychleji, i za cenu určitého plýtvání. Capex ve druhém čtvrtletí vzrostl meziročně o 142 % na 5,8 miliardy USD.
Elon Musk said aiming for a "high-efficiency capital spend" would just "slow things down." WEF/Getty images Elon Musk says Tesla should spend even more on AI — even if some money ends up being wasted.
The EV giant's capital expenditure soared 142% year-over-year to $5.8 billion in the second quarter as Musk's AI spending spree ramped up.
Speaking on an analyst call after Tesla's earnings on Thursday, Musk said that he had asked executives to keep accelerating the company's spending.
"We should be spending on capex as fast as we can spend — as fast as we can without it being too wasteful. So we're not trying to aim for some extremely high-efficiency capital spend because that would slow things down," Musk said.
Tesla is investing aggressively in new production lines and factories for its Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot.
The automaker recorded a negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion in the second quarter, its first shortfall since 2024, and Tesla's shares fell in premarket trading as the company's profits missed earnings expectations.
Executives told investors that AI spending will continue to grow, with Tesla's total capex spending expected to surpass $25 billion this year.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja said on the earnings call that Tesla was aiming to secure debt facilities to give it the capacity to borrow up to $30 billion.
He predicted spending would ramp up in the next 2-3 years as the company builds a new solar panel factory, installs more AI compute, and breaks ground on a massive 'Terafab' semiconductor fab that Tesla is building with SpaceX.
It comes as other tech giants burn through cash to keep up in the escalating AI race. Google recorded a negative free cash flow of nearly $6 billion in its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday and raised its capex predictions for the full year to as much as $205 billion.
Musk's comments on Tesla's spending efficiency come a year after he launched an assault on wasteful government spending with DOGE, and the world's richest man has continued to criticize government spending as prone to abuse and waste.
Musk told investors on Wednesday that Tesla's capex efficiency was "off-scale good" because the EV giant was investing in lots of productive assets like factories and infrastructure at the same time.
"I think probably this is the fastest industrial scale-up since World War II in America," Musk said.
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Tesla uvedla, že její robotaxi ujela více než 380 000 neřízených mil ve šesti městech ve dvou státech bez jediné významné bezpečnostní události. Firma zároveň hlásí už několik měsíců dvojciferný týdenní růst provozu.
Tesla said Wednesday that its robotaxi fleet has logged more than 380,000 unsupervised miles across six cities in two states without what the company described as a "notable" safety incident.
Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s vice president of AI software, highlighted the fleet’s safety record during the electric vehicle maker’s second-quarter earnings call, telling investors it had recorded "zero notable incidents."
Any reported incidents involved "other actors impacting us when we were stationary," Elluswamy said.
"I'd like to emphasize how safe the operation has been so far," Elluswamy said. "Zero notable incidents over 380,000 miles."
MUSK SAYS TESLA, SPACEX TO BUILD ADVANCED CHIP MANUFACTURING FACILITY
A Tesla robotaxi travels along South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, June 22, 2025. Tesla said that its robotaxi fleet has logged more than 380,000 unsupervised miles across six cities in two states without what the company described as a "notable" (Reuters/Joel Angel Juarez / Reuters)
Elluswamy said the results support Tesla’s camera-based approach to autonomous driving.
"Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need lidars, radars, HD maps and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely," he said. "Here, we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable and affordable autonomy with just cameras."
Tesla said mileage traveled by its unsupervised robotaxi fleet has grown at a double-digit weekly rate for months.
"We have grown at such a high compounding rate on a week-over-week basis over the last several months," Elluswamy said. "Not only that, we expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year."
ELON MUSK REVEALS PRICE OF TESLA'S CYBERCAB
A Tesla robotaxi operates on South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025. (Reuters/Joel Angel Juarez / Reuters)
The remarks came one day after Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, according to Reuters.
Tesla launched the service in Austin in June 2025, initially placing safety monitors inside the vehicles.
It later began offering fully unsupervised rides in Austin and expanded the service to Dallas, Houston and Miami, Reuters reported.
Stocks In This Article: SELF-DRIVING CAR COMPANIES WAYMO, TESLA TO TESTIFY AT KEY SENATE COMMITTEE ON REGULATING GROWING INDUSTRY
Passengers exit a Waymo self-driving car, Dec. 26, 2025, in San Francisco. Unlike Waymo, which uses lidar sensors, Tesla relies mainly on cameras and AI software. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Unlike Waymo, which uses "light detection and ranging" or "lidar" sensors, Tesla relies mainly on cameras and AI software, according to the outlet.
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"We expect that the time to launch to a new city will continue to trend towards zero, towards an end where we operate in entire states as a whole, instead of going city by city," Elluswamy added.
Tesla could not immediately be reached by FOX Business for comment.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call July 22, 2026 5:30 PM EDT
Company Participants
Travis Axelrod - Head of Investor Relations
Elon Musk - Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Ashok Elluswamy - Executive Officer
Karn Budhiraj
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
Brandon Ehrhart
Conference Call Participants
Andrew Percoco - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Alexander Perry - BofA Securities, Research Division
Colin Langan - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Walter Piecyk - LightShed Partners, LLC
William Stein - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Dan Levy - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Presentation
Travis Axelrod
Head of Investor Relations
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2026 Q&A Webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives.
Our Q2 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
During the question-and-answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. [Operator Instructions]
Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?
Elon Musk
Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Thank you. So, yes, it's been a great quarter. We achieved record Q2 deliveries. Model Y, I believe it is now, I think it's the best-selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the board. So its popularity is increasing tremendously. And we're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take
Tesla ve 2. čtvrtletí vykázala solidní tržby, ale zisk výrazně zaostal za odhady trhu. Krátkodobě jí pomohly silné prodeje aut kvůli vyšším cenám benzínu.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered a solid revenue result in Q2, but earnings fell dramatically short of street estimates.Short-term performance was driven by strong auto sales amid high gas prices, shifting focus from long-term autonomous ambitions.TSLA stock trades at a substantial premium to the auto space and tech giants, but recent results don't justify this valuation. jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
After the bell on Wednesday, we received second quarter results from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). The electric vehicle maker had a strong sales period thanks to higher gas prices amidst the U.S.
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Tesla ve 2. čtvrtletí vykázala tržby 28,24 miliardy USD, nad odhady, ale zisk na akcii 33 centů zaostal za očekáváním 50 centů. Cybercab už je ve výrobě a Optimus Bot má přijít „brzy“.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported second-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.
Here are the highlights.
Tesla Q2 EarningsTesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.24 billion. The total beat a Street consensus estimate of $25.71 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Second-quarter earnings of 33 cents per share missed a Street consensus estimate of 50 cents per share.
Tesla previously reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year. The total beat a Street estimate of 406,000.
The company said it hit $100 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue for the first time in history in the second quarter.
Active FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million in the second quarter, up 56% year-over-year and up from the 1.28 million reported in the first quarter.
Tesla ended the quarter with digital assets worth $674 million, made up primarily of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holdings. This marks a significantly lower figure than the $786 million in the first quarter, with the leading cryptocurrency trading lower this year.
What’s Next for TeslaThe company said its first-generation production lines for Optimus Bot are being installed in anticipation of production in 2026, with the company saying production will happen "soon."
The Cybercab is listed as in production, an improvement from the company saying it expected volume production "this year" last quarter. Tesla said the vehicle began production in the quarter.
The Tesla Semi is listed as "commissioning" and the company said it remains on track for volume production this year.
"We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories," the company said.
Tesla said deliveries and deployments will depend on demand.
"Tesla is in its largest and most exciting period of investment."
The company said it has "never been more optimistic about the future."
Tesla Stock Price ActionTesla stock is down 2.8% to $363.42 in after-hours trading Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.83.
Image via Shutterstock
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Tesla is no longer planning to reach “volume production” of three of its newest products – the Cybercab, the Tesla Semi, and its Megapack 3 commercial energy storage solution – in 2026, according to a second-quarter shareholder letter published Wednesday. The company also removed language from its first-quarter letter about its Optimus robot reaching “volume production.”
The company said Wednesday that it’s trying to increase battery production, specifically around the company’s 4680 cell, in order to start building the Cybercab and Tesla Semi at scale. It did not offer a reason for pushing back volume production of the new Megapack, or say whether there are any holdups around Optimus.
Tesla started making the first production Cybercabs at its factory in Austin, Texas earlier this year, but said in the letter that it’s still building out the manufacturing lines for the Semi and Optimus. The company had said as recently as January that the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 would reach “volume production” this year.
The pullback comes as the company plows money into its next generation of products while attempting to shift from an EV maker to an AI and robotics company. Tesla’s results, which showed net income falling 5% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, capital expenditures more than doubling, and negative free cash flow, were slightly buoyed by an uptick in revenue.
Still that revenue boost wasn’t enough to offset the cost of business and Tesla’s push to develop and launch new products, which Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja previously said would lead to negative cash flow for the remainder of the year.
The company reported revenue of $28.2 billion, a 26% increase from the $22.5 billion it generated in the second quarter of 2025. Tesla’s second-quarter revenue also grew from the previous quarter’s haul of $22.38 billion.
The bulk of its revenue came from selling and leasing its EVs — and those results improved significantly this quarter.
The company reported automotive revenue of $20.5 billion in the second quarter, compared to $16.6 billion in the same-year ago period. Tesla delivered more than 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter, an increase of more than 120,000 from the first quarter.
It was Tesla’s best result for overall sales since the third quarter of last year, when it delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles. The increase was driven by record sales in several markets outside of the U.S., including South Korea, Australia, Colombia, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Portugal, the Philippines, Chile, Slovenia and Lithuania, the company said in its shareholder letter.
Tesla’s second-quarter revenue results improved from a year ago when the company suffered from a combination of falling EV sales, lower average selling prices, less cash from regulatory credits, and a drop in solar and energy revenue.
Sales of energy storage and solar also proved to be a standout, improving 13% to $3.1 billion. And subscriptions to Tesla’s advanced driver assistance system, known as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) continue to rise. The company reported 1.48 million subscriptions, a 56% increase from the same period last year.
Tesla’s bottom line, however, slipped as it poured money into new products and saw its gross margins squeezed.
Tesla reported net income of $1.1 billion, a 5% decrease from the same period a year ago. At the same time, its operating expenses ballooned by 47% to $4.3 billion. Meanwhile, Tesla had negative free cash flow of $1 billion in the second quarter, a stark change from the $1.44 billion in positive free cash flow it reported last quarter and the $146 million it had in the same period last year.
The company’s operating income was $398 million, a 57% drop from the $932 million it reported in the same period last year.
A year ago, Tesla called the second quarter of 2025 a “seminal point” in the company’s history and the beginning of its transition from a company that sells electric vehicles, solar, and energy storage to one that leads in “AI, robotics and related services.”
That transition is still underway and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the company would boost spending to achieve its goal. Tesla said its capital expenditure will be $25 billion in 2026, about three times more than it historically has spent.
This spring, the company ended production of its flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV vehicles at its Fremont, California factory to make way for its Optimus humanoid robot. It is also bringing its Tesla Robotaxi service to new cities, albeit with a limited number of vehicles. And it’s still pushing to sell owners on Full Self-Driving (Supervised), and eventually make that product capable enough to handle all driving without the need of a human.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
You can contact or verify outreach from Kirsten by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at kkorosec.07 on Signal.
Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
NHTSA žádá Teslu o vysvětlení příspěvků Elona Muska, v nichž naznačoval, že FSD umožní psát SMS nebo dělat espresso za jízdy. Regulátor zkoumá, zda to odpovídá schopnostem systému.
"Make your espresso on the road while your Tesla drives itself," wrote Musk in one post. Johannes Neudecker/picture alliance via Getty Images Elon Musk's posting habits are putting Tesla under the microscope — again.
Regulators looking into Tesla's Full Self-Driving have asked the company for more information about a series of X posts in which CEO Elon Musk said drivers could text and make an espresso while using the automated driving assist technology.
In a request for information sent to Tesla on July 2, officials at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) asked the company to clarify posts made on Musk and Tesla's accounts.
These include a post from December 2025 in which Musk said FSD users could text and drive "depending on [the] context of surrounding traffic."
"This is so cool. Make your espresso on the road while your Tesla drives itself," Musk wrote in another post cited by the document. The billionaire was responding to a video showing a Tesla owner using an espresso machine and reclining his seat while FSD was engaged.
The NHTSA also cited posts from Musk saying that FSD can "operate in all conditions" and that an FSD update will "substantially reduce" the need for driver attention, as well as posts from Tesla promoting the technology.
The regulator asked Tesla to clarify whether these examples were "accurate and consistent" with FSD's capabilities, and if the company has done anything to reduce the potential for "misunderstanding or misuse."
On its website and in owner manuals, Tesla makes it clear that drivers using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) should pay attention to the road and be ready to take over at all times.
It's not the first time Tesla has faced legal and regulatory scrutiny over the way it promotes FSD.
The Model Y maker was ordered to pay $242 million in damages last year over a wrongful-death lawsuit that alleged Tesla's advertising exaggerated the capabilities of Autopilot, FSD's predecessor, and the company struck a deal to avoid a ban in California in February after a judge ruled that its "Autopilot" and "Full Self-Driving" branding was misleading.
The NHTSA investigation, which was opened in October 2024 and upgraded to an engineering analysis in March, is looking into FSD's ability to alert the driver in low-visibility conditions. The probe was opened following several reports of Tesla's crashing in areas where visibility was reduced by "sun glare, fog, or airborne dust."
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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EVs, AI, Robots and RobotaxisTesla reports their second-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close and similar to recent quarterly reports, the information and management commentary could be less about consumer electric vehicles and more about AI, robots and autonomous vehicles.
Benzinga asked viewers about Tesla’s future growth plans.
The results are:
Humanoid Robots (Optimus Bot): 32% Robotaxis: 30% New electric vehicle models: 26% FSD Monthly subscriptions: 12% While the Optimus Bot won, the poll divided Benzinga readers on humanoid robots, robotaxis and new EV models. FSD monthly subscriptions finished last in the poll with only 12%.
The fact that humanoid robots and robotaxis got 62% of the votes in the poll signals a major shift for Tesla and one that CEO Elon Musk is betting on.
Musk has said that FSD and Optimus are "the biggest factors" in Tesla achieving its Master Plan Part 4.
"80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus," Musk tweeted previously.
“I think that’s probably correct if we execute well on autonomous transport and Optimus,” Musk said.
In June 2024, Musk also said Optimus could help Tesla hit a $25 trillion market capitalization.
Tesla is expected to begin third-party sales and high-volume production of Optimus in 2027.
Tesla Q2 EarningsTesla has beaten analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share in two straight quarters, but the stock price has fallen after three of the last four earnings reports with an average loss of 5% over that time.
The revenue and earnings per share continue to matter less for Tesla investors and analysts than the commentary from Musk and the future timeline for items like FSD, new vehicles, robotaxis and the Optimus Bot.
Tesla gave updates on robotaxi paid miles, robotaxi city rollouts, FSD subscriptions and a timeline on its vehicle releases during its first-quarter earnings report and conference call.
“We are excited about Tesla’s positioning in 2026 with tailwinds persisting for the auto business, our continued progress on FSD 4, the ramp of Robotaxi, progress on Optimus ahead of mass production and the growth of our energy production capacity,” the company said after first-quarter results.
The previous timeline was for the Cybercab to enter volume production "this year."
Investors will be closely watching to see the update numbers on these growth initiatives and an updated timeline on releases.
Price ActionTesla stock is down 0.3% to $377.98 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.83. The company’s shares are down 13.8% year-to-date in 2026.
Photo courtesy: Rokas Tenys on Shutterstock.com
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Tesla dnes po uzavření trhu oznámí výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí; odhady čekají EPS 44 centů a tržby 25,24 miliardy USD. V předchozím čtvrtletí firma vykázala EPS 41 centů, což bylo o 36,67 % nad konsensem 30 centů.
Tesla shares are showing limited movement. What should traders watch with TSLA? Earnings Preview & HistoryTesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings today after the market closes. Analysts estimate EPS of 44 cents along with revenue of $25.24 billion. For the prior quarter, Tesla reported EPS of 41 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 30 cents by 36.67%. The company also posted revenue of $22.39 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $22.17 billion.
What To WatchInvestors will be watching automotive gross margin closely, since Tesla’s record 480,126 vehicle deliveries only matter if aggressive pricing hasn’t eaten into profitability — EPS estimates span a wide range from 27 cents to 74 cents. Commentary on the Cybercab rollout, Full Self-Driving adoption and Optimus production timing will also be closely tracked, given Tesla’s valuation increasingly hinges on those initiatives rather than core vehicle sales.
Below All Key Levels, With Momentum FadingAt $377.00, Tesla is trading 4.6% below its 20-day SMA ($395.00) and 7.8% below its 50-day SMA ($408.56), a setup that typically keeps the near-term trend pointed lower unless price can reclaim those levels. It’s also 9.5% below the 200-day SMA ($416.27), reinforcing that the longer-term trend is still under pressure.
MACD is the cleaner momentum read right now: it’s below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which points to fading upside pressure versus the prior upswing. In plain terms, when MACD sits under the signal line, rallies often struggle to follow through until momentum improves back above that baseline.
The moving-average structure is also a headwind, with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA (a "death cross" that occurred in April). That combination tends to shift trader focus toward selling strength rather than buying dips until the stock can start rebuilding above its intermediate trend lines.
Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number pivot area that sits above the major moving averages, where rebounds can stall Key Support: $368.50 — a nearby floor just below current levels where buyers previously stepped in Analyst Consensus & Recent ActionsThe stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $405.70. Recent analyst moves include:
GLJ Research: Sell (Maintains Target to $24.86) (July 21) Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $417.00) (July 14) Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $370.00) (July 14) Benzinga Edge RankingsBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Tesla, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
The Verdict: Tesla’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile with a premium valuation, while momentum remains only moderate. For longer-term bulls, the setup improves if the stock can reclaim key moving averages; for tactical traders, the $368.50 support and $433.00 resistance define the near-term risk range.
Tesla Shares Trade FlatTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 0.75% lower at $376.10, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Key Takeaways Analysts expect Tesla to report Q2 EPS of $0.50.The options market is implying a 6% post-EPS move.Energy and future tech timelines will be important clues for investors to observe. Tesla Q2 EarningsZacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ) will report earnings on second quarter earnings results on Wednesday, July 22, after the equity market close. Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates predict that Tesla will earn $0.50 for Q2, up from the $0.41 the company earning in Q1.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla’s Recent EPS HistoryTesla’s recent earnings track record has been spotty to say the least. The EV maker has missed Zacks Consensus Estimates in 6 of the past 10 quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nevertheless, Tesla is exhibiting some recent signs of a turn around. Over the past two quarters Tesla has beaten Wall Street estimates by double digits and has an average EPS surprise of 5.48% over the past four.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TSLA Implied Post-EPS MoveThe options market is currently pricing in a rather subdued post-EPS move of +/- $24 or 6%.
The Legacy EV Business: Volume vs. MarginsAlthough most investors own Tesla shares because they are betting on future products such as the Optimus humanoid robot and robotaxi, it’s electric vehicle business still comprises the lion’s share (~85%) of its total revenues. Last month, Tesla delivered a spectacular deliver beat when it reported ~480k vehicles for Q2. The 480K delivery number trounced Wall Street estimates of 406k and represented a 25% year-over-year increase.
However, it’s important that investors do not view the delivery number in a vacuum. Amid a sunsetting of the federal EV tax credits and a slowing EV market Tesla has offered generous promotional financing and has slashed prices in key markets such as China and Europe. The question for investors is “Will increased EV sales volumes supersede incentives or will deep discounts erode profit margins?”
Tesla EnergyTesla’s Energy business continues to be a consistent bright spot for the company. Deployments soared 40% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding its energy business. SunRun ((RUN - Free Report) ) and TSLA announced a 16GW distributed energy pact targeting utilities and data center operators. Additionally, Tesla brough the largest lithium refinery in the U.S. online earlier this year. While growth will likely continue, investors will be watching to see if CAPEX stabilizes in this segment.
Future Product TimelinesTesla CEO Elon Musk has a reputation for setting extremely aggressive (and sometimes unrealistic) timelines. While these optimistic timelines can lead to increased productivity, they have been a thorn in the side of Wall Street investors, who are often hyper focused on quarterly results as opposed to long-term results. As a result, investors will want to see progress on Tesla’s Robotaxi & Cybercab commercialization, its FSD adoption rates, and Optimus and AI Compute expansion.
Bottom Line
Tesla’s Q2 EPS will answer important questions about the company’s legacy EV business, energy growth, and future product timelines. If strong delivery volumes can offset incentives and Elon Musk delivers tangible updates on autonomous tech, Tesla shares could finally get the spark they need.
Tesla před výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí posiluje a opční trh naznačuje až 5,36% růst TSLA do konce týdne. Podpořily to i dodávky 480 126 vozů, meziročně o 25 % více.
Tesla TSLA shares are inching higher ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings scheduled to be released after market close on Wednesday, July 22nd.
Consensus is for the EV specialist to post a nearly 15% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.31 on revenue of at least $25.7 billion – which would represent a 16% jump from last year.
While Tesla stock remains down significantly versus the start of 2026, options pricing suggests it’s poised to reclaim some of that loss after the Q2 print this week.
Heading into Tesla’s quarterly earnings, the put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring July 24th sits at 0.54, indicating a strong bullish skew.
According to Barchart, the upper price on those contracts sits at just over $401 currently, signaling potential for a 5.36% rally in TSLA shares through the end of this week.
Much of the derivatives market’s confidence may be traced back to Tesla’s strong delivery report.
Earlier this month, billionaire Elon Musk’s company said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in its fiscal Q2, up 25% versus the same quarter of 2025.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald seem to agree with options traders on Tesla shares.
In a note to clients this week, they maintained an Overweight rating on the EV firm and a strongly bullish $510 price target.
Their positive view is rooted in its high-margin Cybercab business.
“We believe TSLA will have the ability to scale rapidly following commercialization (despite the delayed expansion) and capture meaningful market share,” the firm’s analysts wrote.
Amidst accelerating milestones for the Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robots, Cantor Fitzgerald remains constructive on Tesla's ability to unlock recurring software economics as autonomy commercializes.
From a technical perspective, the EV stock is currently trading a little under its 20-day MA – with a decisive break above the $395 level expected to boost upward momentum in the near-term.
While top-line delivery growth provides a solid backdrop, Street’s post-earnings focus will quickly shift to automotive gross margins and capital spending efficiency.
Investors are eager to see if manufacturing scale, operational discipline, and localized supply chain efficiencies can offset pricing pressures and raw material cost headwinds, protecting operational profitability.
Beyond core auto metrics, management’s commentary on the earnings call regarding real-world AI investments – specifically concrete timelines for Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansion and scaling capital expenditure for data center compute – will likely act as a catalyst.
A decisive beat on core margins paired with confident guidance on physical AI infrastructure could give TSLA stock the momentum needed to clear technical resistance levels.
Heading into the earnings release, Wall Street remains bullish on Tesla Inc, with a “Moderate Buy” rating coupled with a $418 mean price target.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) heads into its Q2 2026 earnings report tomorrow as the undisputed laggard of the Magnificent 7. Shares are down 17.82% year to date, badly trailing every other name in the cohort. Our proprietary model says the setup is more constructive than the tape suggests.
Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for Tesla The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $428.08, implying 15.83% upside from the current $369.57 quote. Our recommendation is buy.
The rating reflects a re-rating pathway from expanding automotive margins, an accelerating Services and Other line, and imminent product catalysts in Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus. Q2 is the near-term trigger; the multi-year AI thesis is the structural driver.
Metric Value Current Price $369.57 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $428.08 Upside 15.83% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Why Tesla Has Been the Mag 7 Anchor in 2026 Tesla has slid 6.38% in the past week and 7.72% in the past month, sitting well below the 52-week high of $498.83 hit late last year.
In Q1 2026, Tesla reported revenue of $22.387 billion, up 15.78% YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3481 estimate, a 17.78% beat. Automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2% from a year earlier, and Services and Other revenue jumped 42% to $3.745 billion on 1.28 million FSD subscriptions. Q2 reports July 22 after the close.
The Case for the Bull Scenario Our bull scenario gets Tesla to $487.11 within twelve months, a 31.81% total return. Cybercab volume production at Giga Texas, Tesla Semi volume production, Megapack 3, and the Optimus Fremont line all hit in 2026. FSD subscriptions rose 51% YoY, and Netherlands approval opens the EU.
Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 77.5% probability of a Q2 EPS beat. On 7investing’s AI Investor Podcast, Simon Erickson framed a robotaxi-success DCF at $700 per share, arguing Tesla “can probably double again” if regulators cooperate.
What Could Go Wrong The bear scenario lands at $375.64, barely above today’s price. TSLA trades at 346 trailing earnings and 167 forward. Q1 flagged real headwinds: energy revenue fell 12% YoY, inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 22, regulatory credits are declining, and digital asset losses hit $222 million. Opex is up 37% YoY.
Bulls counter that opex growth reflects deliberate AI R&D and the CEO award SBC, and that $1.95 billion in quarterly R&D is the price of buying Optimus and Robotaxi optionality. Polymarket assigns just a 16% chance of an Optimus release by year-end, so expectations there are already reset lower.
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How Tesla Stacks Up Against GM and Rivian General Motors (NYSE:GM) is the traditional-auto counterpoint. GM trades at a P/E near 25 on $185 billion in 2025 revenue, with Q1 2026 EPS of $3.70 beating the $2.62 consensus. GM prints real cash today; Tesla is priced on cash it will earn a decade out. That contrast is why our 24/7 Wall St. price target applies a mega-cap dampener rather than pure growth multiples.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is the pure-play EV comp on the other extreme. Rivian’s Q1 2026 revenue was $1.381 billion on 10,365 deliveries, with negative adjusted EBITDA of -$472 million. Rivian has no P/E because it lacks earnings.
Between GM’s 25 P/E and Rivian’s negative one, Tesla’s 167 forward P/E reflects the market pricing a hybrid auto-plus-AI outcome. That framing makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $428.08 look reasonable.
The Setup Ahead of Q2 Earnings The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $428.08, the call is buy, and our confidence is 90%. The tipping factor is margin recovery: automotive gross margin snapping back to 21.1% resets the earnings math.
The bullish case strengthens if Q2 confirms the margin trajectory and FSD subscription growth holds above 40% YoY. The bearish case gains ground if energy revenue slips again and inventory days climb further.
Tesla Price Projection 2026 to 2030 Our base case implies a 9.94% annualized return to $593.66 by 2031.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $428 2027 $470 2028 $515 2029 $555 2030 $590 These projections assume Tesla executes on Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus ramps while sustaining FSD adoption. Meaningful upside or downside could emerge from Robotaxi geographic expansion or delayed Optimus commercialization.
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Tesla letos v létě nasadí aktualizaci, která přidá hlasového asistenta Grok s možností volat, přehrávat hudbu, ovládat klimatizaci i otevřít odkládací schránku. V aplikaci také zpřístupní sdílení statistik samořízení.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) said it will roll out a new software update this summer that lets its Grok AI assistant make phone calls, play music, adjust cabin climate and open the glovebox by voice command.
The update also allows drivers to view and share self-driving statistics through Tesla's mobile app, and gives Navigation the ability to suggest routine destinations and prioritize routes drivers have previously taken.
Other features include the ability to set a desired arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear display controls from the front screen. Tesla's in-car Caraoke feature will add scoring and saved high scores.
The company also plans to add Supercharger name search, queue controls for Apple Music, adjustable zoom for the self-driving visualization display, browser camera and microphone support, and new animations for the Model 3 and Model Y.
Tesla v úterý rozšířila službu robotaxi do Orlanda a Tampy den před zveřejněním výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí. Investoři sledují tempo rozšiřování autonomní přepravy.
A Tesla robotaxi drives on the street along South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, U.S., June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab on Tuesday expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, as the electric-vehicle maker races to prove that it can scale its autonomous ride-hailing business beyond its initial launch markets.
The move comes a day before Tesla reports second-quarter earnings, with Wall Street closely watching the progress on robotaxis, which underpin much of the company's valuation as CEO Elon Musk shifts focus toward artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
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Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year and expanded to Dallas and Houston earlier this year and Miami this month. The company has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco Bay Area.
Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets. In response, Musk has said the company was deliberately taking a cautious approach, and that rigorous safety testing was the main constraint to faster deployment of the service.
Unlike rivals such as Alphabet-owned (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo, which relies on lidar sensors, Tesla's robotaxi system uses cameras and AI-based software to navigate. Tesla plans to eventually deploy its purpose-built Cybercab vehicle, which does not have pedals or a steering wheel.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Tesla utratila zatím jen 2,5 miliardy dolarů z plánovaných 25 miliard, což zvyšuje pochybnosti o jejích plánech v AI, autonomním řízení a robotice. Trh čeká, zda středeční výsledky přinesou konkrétní důkazy pokroku.
Před výsledky za druhé čtvrtletí čelí Tesla otázkám ohledně své schopnosti plnit ambiciózní plány v oblasti umělé inteligence, autonomního řízení a robotiky. Společnost v letošním roce utratila jen zlomek plánovaných kapitálových výdajů, což zhoršuje důvěryhodnost růstového příběhu Tesly. V době, kdy technologičtí konkurenti investují do AI stovky miliard dolarů a kdy na trh vstoupila další Muskova firma, bude trh od Tesly chtít slyšet nejen další sliby, ale především vidět konkrétní důkazy o pokroku při jejich plnění.
Po nespočtu slibů Tesly o umělé inteligenci, autonomním řízení a robotice utratil tento výrobce elektromobilů zatím pouze 2,5 miliardy dolarů z celkových 25 miliard dolarů, které předpovídal v dubnu v rámci kapitálových výdajů za rok 2026. Toto pomalé tempo vyvolává otázky, zda Tesla utrácí dost na to, aby dosáhla pokroku, který si vytyčila.
„Je to kapitálově náročné odvětví,“ řekl Jay Van Sciver, partner a výkonný ředitel společnosti Hedgeye Risk Management. „Neexistuje způsob, jak se skutečně dostat z bodu A do bodu B s menšími výdaji.“
Opačná mechanika
Tesla se tak staví na zcela jinou trajektorii než většinu ostatních technologických gigantů, jejichž akcie jsou naopak trestány za příliš rozmařilé výdaje na umělou inteligenci. Čtyři konkurenti Tesly z velké sedmičky – Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms a Microsoft – předpovídají v roce 2026 kombinované kapitálové výdaje ve výši 725 miliard dolarů. Pro srovnání, roční prognóza kapitálových výdajů Tesly ve výši 25 miliard dolarů vypadá sice konzervativně, přesto její akcie v roce 2026 klesly o 18 %, což je nejhorší výkon v celé skupině.
Akciím Tesly by proto naopak navýšení kapitálových výdajů ve středeční zprávě o hospodaření pravděpodobně pomohlo, protože by to signalizovalo, že se vývoj produktů ubírá správným směrem. „U růstových akcií jsou kapitálové výdaje nejlepším ukazatelem budoucího růstu,“ podotkl analytik HSBC Mike Tyndall, který má u této akcie doporučení prodat. „Pokud peníze neutrácíte, pak nedosáhnete růstu.“
Kapitálové výdaje jsou pro společnosti jako Tesla „kontrolou důvěryhodnosti“, protože prodávají dlouhodobé vize, tvrdí Haris Khurshid, investiční ředitel společnosti Karobaar Capital, která vlastní akcie Tesly prostřednictvím derivátů. Realita je však taková, že Muskova historie je plná zmeškaných termínů a zrušených projektů. Investoři to vědí, a proto chtějí začít vidět známky hmatatelného pokroku.
„Méně se zaměřuji na jedno číslo, ale spíše na to, zda je celkový příběh vnitřně konzistentnější,“ řekl Khurshid. „Ukazují kapitálové výdaje, komentáře managementu a časové harmonogramy stejným směrem? To je to, co odděluje přesvědčivou vizi od přesvědčivé investice.“
Drahá Tesla
Na druhou stranu produkty, které Tesla vyvíjí, se zásadně liší od toho, co dělají ostatní velké technologické firmy – tj. především rozšiřují kapacitu cloudových výpočtů a budují AI služby. Tesla se zaměřuje na fyzickou stránku umělé inteligence a prezentuje budoucnost samořídících aut a robotických komorníků.
Tesla je přitom oceňována, jako by tu už tato budoucnost byla. S přibližně 163násobkem zisku za příštích 12 měsíců je to druhá nejdražší společnost v indexu S&P 500 a zdaleka nejdražší člen velké sedmičky, přičemž nejblíže je jí Apple s přibližně 34násobkem budoucího zisku. Celý index S&P 500 se obchoduje s přibližně 20násobkem zisku.
Očekává se, že Tesla ve druhém čtvrtletí vykáže čistý zisk ve výši 1,2 miliardy dolarů, což je o 2,7 % více než před rokem, a tržby ve výši 26 miliard dolarů, což je o 17 % více než ve stejném období předchozího roku. Celkové prostředí pro elektromobily ale zůstává pochmurné. Přestože společnost ve druhém čtvrtletí zaznamenala prudký nárůst dodávek vozidel, investoři po této zprávě vybírali zisky, což 2. července způsobilo pokles akcií o 7,5 % a šlo tak o nejhorší den v roce.
„Myslím, že tu je nyní mnohem méně důvodů věřit v Teslu než kdykoli předtím,“ řekl David Trainer, generální ředitel technologické výzkumné firmy New Constructs. „Její hlavní podnikání konkuruje v extrémně kapitálově náročné oblasti superspolečnostem, které již byly ziskové a jsou ochotny zisk nevykazovat.“
Faktor SpaceX
Tlak na Teslu, aby dodržela své sliby, se od vstupu Muskovy druhé společnosti SpaceX minulý měsíc na burzu výrazně zvýšil. Pokud zisky Tesly nesplní vysoká očekávání, budou ambice SpaceX kolonizovat Mars a provozovat orbitální datová centra pro Muskovy fanoušky pravděpodobně zajímavější. SpaceX by měl své výsledky zveřejnit 4. srpna.
Přitom se již šíří spekulace o fúzi mezi oběma společnostmi – od Muskova společného vlastnictví, přes podíl Tesly v nyní SpaceX vlastněné společnosti xAI, až po společný podnik Terafab na výrobu čipů. SpaceX má velké ambice v oblasti umělé inteligence a pilně získává hotovost po svém přelomovém IPO v hodnotě 75 miliard dolarů a následném prodeji dluhopisů za 25 miliard dolarů.
Schopnost Tesly provozovat roboty a robotická taxislužby by proto mohla rozhodnout o tom, zda si v budoucnu zachová nezávislost. Veřejně obchodovaná SpaceX „nutí Teslu ke kratším časovým harmonogramům se skutečnými výsledky,“ řekl Max Gokhman ze společnosti Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. „Nemyslím si, že investoři budou trpěliví s nedodrženými termíny nebo prázdnými sliby, jako tomu bylo předtím, než existoval jasný způsob, jak si zahrát s Elonem Mars.“
Tesla má ve středu oznámit první čtvrtletní odliv hotovosti za více než dva roky, protože výdaje na AI a robotiku prudce rostou. Investoři sledují, kdy se sázky na robotaxi a Optimus začnou vyplácet.
Item 1 of 2 A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole
[1/2]A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesHeavy outlays target AI infrastructure, robotaxis and OptimusBarclays says stronger vehicle operations can help finance AI-related expendituresQuarterly update may show first cash burn in over two yearsJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab is expected to report its first quarterly cash burn in over two years on Wednesday, as its spending on AI and robotics soars, intensifying investor scrutiny over when those bets will pay off.
CEO Elon Musk has pivoted the electric-vehicle maker's focus from manufacturing cars to building so-called physical AI businesses such as self-driving taxis and humanoid robots. Much of Tesla's valuation hangs on that promise.
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However, investors are growing increasingly uneasy as spending on AI infrastructure, including data centers, and manufacturing capacity is projected to climb to $25 billion this year, outstripping quarterly cash generated by Tesla's core automotive and energy operations.
"As capex more than doubles and free cash flow turns negative, investors are increasingly focused on evidence that Tesla's spending is strengthening its physical AI moat," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.
Investors have been betting that Tesla's autonomous-driving technology and robotics ambitions could eventually unlock new, high-margin revenue streams. But progress has been slower than many analysts expected, and Musk has missed some self-imposed deadlines.
Soon after launching its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in April last year, Musk predicted Tesla robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. In January, Tesla said the service would expand to seven new cities in the first half of 2026. But its robotaxi network remains confined to Austin, Dallas, Houston in Texas, and Miami in Florida.
Ahead of Wednesday's earnings call, the most-voted question on Tesla's investor-relations site, submitted by a retail investor, was: "What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short-term goals that they've set for themselves?"
Nine of the top 10 most-voted questions center around Tesla's AI-driven bets - robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots and its Full Self-Driving technology.
"Why has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see Cybercab start customer rides?" asked another retail investor.
Tesla has said that it has started manufacturing its Cybercab vehicle, a tailor-made robotaxi without a steering wheel and pedals. However, the vehicles have not been deployed into a robotaxi network, with Musk saying that the production ramp would be "agonizingly slow."
AUTO BUSINESS REBOUNDSTesla delivered a record number of vehicles for the April-to-June period, far exceeding market estimates, as higher oil prices helped drive sales of EVs, especially in Europe.
Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up 3.9% from last year, which would snap a two-year skid of declining annual deliveries.
Barclays analysts said investors remained focused on Tesla's AI ambitions, but a stronger automotive business would help generate the cash needed to finance those investments.
For the second quarter, however, the vehicle-sales rebound may not be enough to offset heavy spending. Tesla is expected to report negative free cash flow of $3.3 billion, according to LSEG data.
Analysts expect Tesla's second-quarter profit to come in at 50 cents per share, compared with 40 cents per share in the same period a year earlier.
However, Deutsche Bank analysts expect the elimination of upfront Full Self-Driving software purchases earlier this year and low interest-rate financing in May to hit profitability.
Wall Street expects automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits of 18.1% in the second quarter, lower than 19.2% in the prior three-month period, according to Visible Alpha data.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Mike Colias and Anil D'Silva
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
Abhirup Roy is a U.S. autos correspondent based in San Francisco, covering Tesla and the wider electric and autonomous vehicle industry. He previously reported from India on global corporations, capital markets regulation, white-collar crime, and corporate litigation. Contact him at (415) 941-8665 or connect securely via Signal on abhiruproy.10
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Speculation is growing among investors that Elon Musk will merge his rocket and EV companies. SERGIO FLORES/AFP via Getty Images Whispers that Elon Musk might combine Tesla and SpaceX are growing — and investors want answers.
Shareholders took to an online Tesla investor forum to submit questions for executives ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings and clamor for more details about a rumored merger with SpaceX.
"Will SpaceX merge with Tesla?" asked one retail investor, in a question representing around 100,000 Tesla shares. Others asked if investors would get a vote on any proposed merger and how executives would ensure that a tie-up treats Tesla investors fairly.
One retail investor asked how Musk would balance his compensation plan, which requires the Tesla CEO to hit a series of ambitious goals to unlock the full $1 trillion payout, with a SpaceX merger.
"To reward long-term Tesla retail shareholders for their loyalty, can you commit to achieving at least half of the goals outlined in your 2025 compensation plan before considering any offers to acquire or merge Tesla?" they wrote in a post that has received nearly 300 votes.
Musk's goals include passing 20 million EV sales, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and deploying 1 million robotaxis and Optimus robots.
While the majority of questions on the Q&A platform were focused on Tesla's sluggish robotaxi rollout and plans for Optimus, Business Insider counted at least 20 questions about the potential merger, making it one of the most-discussed topics among investors.
It's a sign that Tesla investors are increasingly responding to rampant speculation about a mega-merger with SpaceX, which raised a record $86 billion in a blockbuster IPO last month.
Musk is the CEO of two public companies that are worth more than $1 trilion. Bloomberg/Getty Images Longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber told Business Insider he expected the merger to come up in Tesla's Q2 earnings call on Wednesday.
"I expect management to downplay it, because on the surface it does not create obvious value for either company. It would be complicated, distracting, and difficult to structure in a way that makes everyone happy," said Gerber, who is the CEO of wealth management firm Gerber Kawasaki.
Gerber added that the slow pace of Tesla's robotaxi expansion, which he said underpinned the company's $1.4 trillion valuation, is investors' main focus right now. However, he still expects a tie-up with SpaceX to happen eventually.
"SpaceX is where much of the innovation and excitement is right now, while Tesla's core EV business is under increasing pressure," Gerber said.
"If investor interest continues shifting away from EVs and toward SpaceX's growth story, a merger may become a way to reframe Tesla around Elon's stronger innovation platform," he added.
Tesla and SpaceX's share prices have both languished in the past month. Tesla's stock is down nearly 8%, while SpaceX has fallen 35% as the rocket maker's shares tumbled from their post-IPO peak.
SpaceX's IPO broke records, but it has had a bumpy landing. TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images Investors and Tesla bulls previously told Business Insider that a combination would make it easier for the two companies, which are already heavily intertwined, to work together.
SpaceX and Tesla are already collaborating on Musk's Terafab chip-building moonshot, and SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell didn't rule out a merger last month.
"That might make Elon's life a little easier, actually," Shotwell said.
"There's no question that there's synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures, definitely, there's a convergence of a kind of what we're all trying to accomplish in the future," she added.
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On CNBC’s Fast Money segment titled “A Big Tech Pullback… And Time to Sell Tesla? 7/17/26,” the panel spent much of the block picking apart why the Elon Musk premium built into Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock is thinning out just days before the company reports Q2 results on July 22.
The Panel’s Case: Fundamentals Unclear, Technicals Weakening The host framed the setup by saying “the fundamental marginal catalyst is still very unknown” and that “the technicals are frankly the more interesting way to look at the stock right here.”
One trader argued Tesla had been trading as a cheaper listed proxy for SpaceX, a trade that is now unwinding: “people are thinking maybe I just buy SpaceX… they’re not buying a proxy.” Another panelist added that “the magic of Elon too is starting to dissipate” as robotaxi and humanoid robot milestones keep slipping.
The financials give that view something to lean on.
Tesla’s full-year 2025 net income fell nearly 47% to $3.79 billion, while vehicle deliveries declined 9% year over year. Fourth-quarter deliveries dropped 16% from a year earlier to 418,227 units.
Jim Cramer highlighted the deteriorating earnings trend, noting that Tesla’s EPS peaked at $4.07 in 2022 before declining 23% in 2023, 22% in 2024, and another 31% in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 provided some relief, with revenue rising 15.8% year over year to $22.39 billion and automotive gross margin recovering to 21.1%, helped in part by one-time warranty and tariff benefits disclosed in the company’s 8-K.
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Options Desks Are Bearish CNBC options analyst Mike Khouw estimated that the day’s options activity translated into roughly $550 million of net short delta exposure in Tesla shares. The options market was pricing in an implied move of about 7% in either direction through earnings, with call and put positioning roughly balanced overall—a setup Khouw described as “slightly more bearish than usual.”
One notable trade was the September 400/300 put spread, which traded roughly 6,000 contracts at about $35 per spread. The options chain also reflected a defensive tilt. For the September 18 expiry, put volume totaled 61,128 versus 19,591calls, producing a 3.12 put/call volume ratio.
Enter Rivian’s R2 as a Direct Model Y Rival The panel also flagged a competitive wrinkle Tesla has largely avoided: a credible mass-market EV competitor. Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is beginning external R2 deliveries of a mid-size SUV positioned squarely against the Model 3 and Model Y.
Q1 revenue rose to $1.381 billion, up 11% YoY, with deliveries of 10,365 vehicles, up 20%. Rivian reaffirmed 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 vehicles and ended the quarter with $4.83 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The company also has access to a DOE loan of up to $4.5 billion for its Georgia plant and an Uber partnership that includes up to $1.25 billion of investment through 2031, supporting deployment of up to 50,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis.
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Tesla ve 2. čtvrtletí dodala 480 126 vozů, což bylo o 18 % nad očekáváním. Investoři ale čekají na výsledky, zda potvrdí marže, volný peněžní tok a pokrok v robotaxi.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered a robust Q2 operating update, with 480,126 vehicles delivered—beating consensus by 18%—and strong energy storage growth.Despite the delivery beat, TSLA’s high valuation demands Q2 earnings demonstrate margin resilience, positive free cash flow, and tangible robotaxi progress.Energy storage deployments surged 53% quarter-over-quarter, but investors need evidence this translates into sustainable profitability and cash flow.I maintain a Hold rating on TSLA stock, awaiting the 22 July report to confirm whether operational momentum can justify the current AI-driven premium. jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has provided investors with one of its most robust operating updates in recent times. However, the investment case remains unsettled ahead of its earnings report, which are due to go out
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Focus will move beyond autos to AI. (0:17) Comi-Con starts Thursday. (1:52) U.S. strikes Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. (2:24)
The following is an abridged transcript:
With earnings season in full swing and Tesla (TSLA) is lined up to report Wednesday.
Analysts expect Tesla to report revenue of $26.4B, EPS of $0.54 and automotive gross margin excluding credits slightly above 18%.
Tesla already disclosed that it delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 and produced 451,758. Beyond the core numbers, investor attention will once again center on the updates on autonomy, software, the robotaxi rollout, and AI4-AI5 chips, as well as the capex needed for the company to be a leader in physical AI.
SA Analyst Yiannis Zourmpanos says Tesla enters earnings with momentum on its side.
“The improvement in demand, rising analyst expectations, and strong execution show that the market could be undervaluing the stock’s potential earnings performance,” he added.
But Agar Capital warns a great company does not necessarily mean a great stock.
They argue its market cap of $1.5T is overvalued by $1T for “businesses that still lack commercial scale, complete authorizations, verifiable unit economics, and significant FCF.”
Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up:
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) report Monday.
Novartis (NVSEF), 3M (MMM), GM (GM) and Halliburton (HAL) are due Tuesday.
Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), Philip Morris (PM) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) join Tesla on Wednesday.
Thursday brings reports from Intel (INTC), T-Mobile (TMUS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Union Pacific (UNP) and Comcast (CMCSA).
American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ) and Charter Communications (CHTR) close out the week on Friday.
The economic calendar is very light, but this week also brings, AMD's (AMD) Advancing AI event in San Francisco on Wednesday, where CEO Lisa Su is expected to outline the chipmaker's latest AI strategy.
The biennial Farnborough International Airshow begins Monday, with Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSF), Embraer (EMBJ) and other industry leaders expected to announce aircraft orders and showcase new technologies.
And San Diego Comic-Con kicks off Thursday, with Disney (DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Apple (AAPL) among the media companies expected to showcase upcoming films and streaming content.
In the news this weekend, the U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday in retaliation for an attack in Jordan that killed two American service members and wounded four others, further escalating the conflict between Washington and Tehran.
Walmart (WMT) announced that it has removed four bagged iceberg lettuce salad products after receiving a notice from its supplier, Taylor Farms, as recalls tied to a cyclosporiasis outbreak that causes explosive diarrhea widen.
Taylor Farms is one of the largest suppliers of fresh vegetables and packaged salads in North America, serving retailers including not just Walmart (WMT), but Costco (COST) and Whole Foods Market (AMZN) as well as McDonald's (MCD) and Taco Bell (YUM).
And for income investors, Caterpillar (CAT) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) go ex-dividend on Monday.
Caterpillar pays on August 19 and Colgate-Palmolive on August 14.
Dell (DELL) goes ex-dividend Tuesday, with a July 31 payout date.
Pfizer (PFE) goes ex-dividend on Friday, paying out Sept. 1.
Tesla vstupuje do výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí po dodávkách 480 126 vozů, což je meziročně o 25 % více. Wells Fargo přesto vidí cílovou cenu 130 USD, tedy asi 67% pokles oproti dnešní ceně.
Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) heads into its second-quarter earnings report this Wednesday, July 22, carrying two stories that can't both be right. The electric-car maker just delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and its highest quarterly total since the third quarter of 2025. Yet the stock sits at about $391 as of this writing, down 22% from its 52-week high of $498.83.
And one Wall Street firm thinks the decline is just getting started. Last week, Wells Fargo raised its Tesla price target to $130 from $125 while keeping its underweight rating. From today's price, that target implies a drop of about 67%.
The firm's reasoning, in essence, is that Tesla is selling more cars than it has in any quarter since the third quarter of 2025 but earning less on each one, with price cuts and rising input costs (memory chips, copper, and lithium among them) eating away the gains.
So, who's right?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The bull case is already public The strongest evidence for the bulls is volume. Tesla's 480,126 second-quarter deliveries were up 25% from the 384,122 vehicles it delivered in the year-ago quarter.
Delivery growth is also accelerating, up from a 6% year-over-year increase in the first quarter. After a long stretch of shrinking vehicle sales, growth is back.
The rest of the business is moving again, too. First-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year to $22.4 billion, with services and other revenue climbing 42%.
And after a soft first quarter in which energy revenue fell 12% year over year, energy storage deployments rebounded to 13.5 gigawatt-hours in Q2, up 41% from the year-ago period and up sharply from 8.8 gigawatt-hours in Q1.
Even the businesses investors are really paying up for are progressing. Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April, and it received approval for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the Netherlands the same month. Its active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions reached 1.28 million in the first quarter, up 51% year over year.
And the company has the resources to keep funding its ambitions in autonomy and robotics. Tesla ended Q1 with $44.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, up from $44.1 billion at the end of 2025.
That's an improving picture, and I don't think the bears can dismiss it.
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The bear case, in numbers The problem, as Wells Fargo frames it, is what all of that volume actually earns.
Tesla's first-quarter operating margin was just 4.2%, down from 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion of revenue, which works out to earnings per share of $0.13. Over the trailing 12 months, Tesla has earned $1.09 per share.
At about $391, then, the stock trades at about 360 times earnings.
That is the entire debate in one number. A multiple like that isn't pricing in a good quarter on Wednesday. It's pricing in years of things going right, including a robotaxi business that scales into a major profit stream while the core car business stays healthy the whole way.
And consider this detail. Even at Wells Fargo's $130 target, Tesla would still trade at about 120 times earnings. In other words, even the bear case values Tesla like a premium growth company -- that's how much optimism is baked into today's price.
The honest answer is that Wednesday's report can't fully settle this. After all, the bear case is about profits, and the bull case, so far, is mostly about volume. But the report should show which way the gap is closing.
Watch whether operating margin recovers from Q1's 4.2%. Watch what the second-quarter deliveries did to pricing. And watch energy, where a second-quarter rebound in deployments needs to show up in revenue and profit, too.
I don't expect a 67% plunge. A decline like that would probably require the market to stop paying for Tesla's autonomy story almost entirely, and the company keeps making measurable progress on it. But Wells Fargo's underlying framing, I think, is the right one. At this valuation, deliveries alone aren't enough. Profits have to follow.
Until they do, I wouldn't buy the stock ahead of Wednesday's report.
If Tesla can show margins turning up while deliveries grow, the bulls will have earned the next word. If it can't, a 22% discount from the high may not turn out to be much of a discount at all.
Tesla má ve 2. čtvrtletí rekordních 480 126 dodaných vozů, ale pro akcie bude klíčová marže v automobilovém byznysu bez regulačních kreditů. Ta ukáže, zda růst objemu přinesl i vyšší ziskovost.
Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) investors already know the headline numbers for the second quarter. The electric vehicle and energy company said earlier this month that it delivered 480,126 vehicles during the period, up about 25% year over year and more than it has delivered in any second quarter in its history. It also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products, up about 41% from the year-ago period.
What investors don't know yet is what those record deliveries did to Tesla's profitability. That answer arrives on Wednesday, July 22, when the company posts its second-quarter results after market close, followed by a live management webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
With the stock closing Wednesday at $394.46, down about 12% year to date, Tesla commands a market capitalization of about $1.5 trillion and trades at about 360 times earnings. Investors paying that kind of premium aren't buying delivery counts. They need evidence that Tesla can turn all this volume into profit.
That's why I think one line in next week's report matters more than any other: automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales.
Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.
A four-quarter streak Tesla's core profitability has quietly improved for a full year now. The company's automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 12.5% in the first quarter of 2025. It climbed to 15% in the second quarter, 15.4% in the third, 17.9% in the fourth, and 19.2% in the first quarter of 2026.
That's four consecutive quarters of expansion.
This metric is worth attention because it strips out regulatory credits, the emissions credits Tesla sells to other automakers. That revenue is nearly pure profit, but it says nothing about the economics of building cars. And its contribution is shrinking anyway -- credits added 3.7 percentage points to Tesla's automotive gross margin in the first quarter of 2025, but just 1.9 points a year later.
However, there is a caveat in the streak. Tesla said its first-quarter results included one-time benefits related to warranty adjustments and tariffs, which helped both its automotive margin and its 4.2% operating margin.
So the July 22 report has to do two things at once. It has to show that the margin held up near 19% on record volume, and it has to show that Tesla managed this without one-time help.
If the margin excluding credits holds in the high teens, the bull case gets simpler. It would mean Tesla just posted its best second quarter of deliveries ever while preserving the pricing gains and cost work of the past year.
If the number steps back toward the mid-teens, the record quarter looks bought (volume achieved through discounts), and the profit story supporting a $1.5 trillion valuation arguably gets much harder to tell.
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What about robotaxi and energy? Plenty of investors will listen for other things on the call, and reasonably so.
Tesla's energy business deployed 13.5 GWh of storage in the quarter, its second-biggest quarter ever behind the 14.2 GWh it deployed in the fourth quarter of 2025. The segment carried a gross margin of nearly 40% in the first quarter, making it a meaningful profit contributor. Still, energy revenue actually declined 12% year over year in Q1, so deployments alone don't guarantee segment growth.
Then there's autonomy. Tesla ended the first quarter with 1.28 million active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions, up 51% year over year, and it launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April. A subscription base growing that fast is exactly the kind of high-margin revenue the valuation needs more of, so any update on robotaxi expansion or software take rates could move the stock, too.
But those initiatives are still mostly about 2027 and beyond. The margin line shows whether today's business, the one funding all of those bets, is getting more profitable or less as it scales. At 360 times earnings, Tesla doesn't have the luxury of letting profitability drift while investors wait for autonomy.
So when the report lands on July 22, the delivery recap won't be the news -- investors already have it. The number worth finding is the automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. If the streak extends to five quarters without one-time help, record deliveries and improving profitability would make a powerful combination. If it doesn't, investors may opt to treat the record quarter far less kindly.
Tesla přidala Miami jako pátý robotaxi trh a v Texasu má už 175 vozidel, tedy o více než 100 vozidel více za poslední měsíc. Bank of America ponechala hodnocení Buy a cílovou cenu 460 USD.
The firm notes that Tesla has added Miami as its fifth robotaxi market and is scaling its Texas fleet at the fastest pace among operators it tracks. The combination matters because it shifts Tesla’s story from promise to visible expansion, even if the network is still early and uneven.
TSLA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Tesla Adds Robotaxi Markets and VehiclesTesla’s Texas fleet now stands at 175 vehicles, up by more than 100 in the past month, according to the note. That kind of growth gives Tesla a stronger case that its robotaxi effort is more than a demo. It is building an actual operating footprint.
Bank of America also points out that Tesla now has four additional markets in preparation, which suggests the company is still pushing toward the original goal of nine cities by the first half of 2026. Miami’s launch adds another proof point that Tesla wants to expand quickly while interest in autonomous driving remains high.
The robotaxi push is only one part of the bull case. Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries came in around 480,000, far above Street expectation. BofA also says the company likely gained global battery-electric vehicle share which helps offset worries that the core auto business is slowing.
The TakeawayBank of America kept its Buy rating and $460 price target on TSLA. The firm views Tesla as trying to turn autonomy into a real business while the EV business still supports the base case.
For now, the most important question is whether the company can keep adding markets, vehicles and usage fast enough to justify its robotaxi ambition.
TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla stock was down 2.32% at $381.98 at the time of publication Friday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Over the past month, TSLA has declined about 5.0% versus a 0.9% decline in the S&P 500 and is down roughly 17% year-to-date compared to the index’s 8.5% gain.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Tesla míří do výsledkové sezony s robotaxi jako hlavním tématem; Bank of America zopakovala doporučení Buy a cíl 460 USD. Dodávky ve 2. čtvrtletí vzrostly asi na 480 000 vozů, nad odhady.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with robotaxis doing most of the talking.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and $460 price objective, pointing to the service's rapid expansion, a delivery number that blew past Wall Street estimates, and looming production milestones for the company's Optimus humanoid robot.
The bank said investor focus will center on the pace of robotaxi fleet scaling and new market launches. Tesla now operates in five markets following its July 3 launch in Miami, though its San Francisco service still requires a safety driver. Four additional markets are in preparation, compared with the company's original target of nine cities by the first half of 2026.
Tesla's Texas fleet has scaled quickly, adding more than 100 vehicles over the past month to reach 175, the fastest growth among the robotaxi operators Bank of America tracks. Safety data has remained compelling, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since the service's inception and no serious injuries or fatalities. A San Francisco pricing study the bank conducted in June found Tesla was 21% cheaper on average than Waymo, Uber and Lyft, though wait times ran three to four times higher, suggesting demand is outpacing supply.
On the core auto business, Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, above consensus estimates of about 406,000 and up 25% year-over-year. That compares with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15% year-over-year, suggesting Tesla gained roughly 95 basis points of BEV market share. U.S. share rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 46.1% in the quarter.
Bank of America also flagged upcoming updates on Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at Fremont for late July or August, around the same time as a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Giga Texas production expected around summer 2027. The bank expects a slow ramp but sees long-term opportunity, forecasting global humanoid shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.
Beyond Optimus, the bank expects focus on energy storage following Tesla's agreement with NatPower for 25 GWh using its Megapack system. Tesla remains the leading battery energy storage systems company in the U.S., an area now drawing entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.
Bank of America said Tesla is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomy capabilities, which it views as the most significant change agent in the shift toward autonomous, electric transportation.
Tesla zveřejní čtvrtletní výsledky ve středu 22. července po skončení obchodování. Investoři budou sledovat hlavně volný peněžní tok, robotaxi a Optimus.
Second-quarter earnings season is ramping up with the third week of July slated to bring some high-profile reports, including one from Elon Musk’s Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). The electric vehicle giant is scheduled to deliver its latest batch of quarterly results on Wednesday, July 22, after the close of U.S. markets.
Earnings reports are often opportune times for short-term traders to consider inverse and leveraged ETFs. When it comes to Tesla, the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL) and the Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares (TSLS) are the funds to evaluate. TSLL attempts to deliver 200% of the daily performance of the widely followed automotive stock. Conversely, TSLS targets the daily inverse performance of Tesla shares, offering a tactical tool for bearish traders.
With solid second-quarter deliveries already priced into Tesla stock, traders are looking ahead to other catalysts, such as free cash flow.
“We will pay close attention to Tesla’s free cash flow metrics as the company begins a heavy capital expenditure investment cycle to build the infrastructure required for its real-world artificial intelligence products,” noted Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein.
More Catalysts to Consider Other variables that could jolt either TSLL or TSLS — assuming they’re included in Tesla’s post-earnings commentary — are robotaxi rollouts and updates on the Optimus robotics endeavor.
“We will also be watching for an update on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout plans. We will look to hear management’s expansion plans, as well as an update on the robotaxi-dedicated Cybercab, which entered production,” said Goldstein.
Optimus is one subject that legitimately has the potential to put either TSLL or TSLS into play. Investor interest in humanoid robotics is surging, especially now as China accelerates its robot production beyond previous expectations.
“We view the project as a large long-term growth driver for Tesla, as it could eventually perform many tasks and be purchased by both businesses and consumers,” observed Goldstein.
Comments on profit margins and updates on cheaper Tesla models could also spark big moves in TSLL and TSLS post-earnings.
“As Tesla ramps up production of its new, lower-priced Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, we expect automotive gross margins, excluding credits, to be in the high teens, slightly below management’s long-term goal of 20%,” concluded Goldstein. “In the long term, we assume Tesla will deliver around 2.8 million vehicles per year by 2030, driven by the adoption of full self-driving software and the more affordable versions of the Model Y and Model 3.”
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Leveraged & Inverse Content Hub.
Tesla před výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí 22. července očekává EPS 44 centů a tržby 25,24 miliardy USD. Akcie jsou pod všemi hlavními klouzavými průměry a dnes klesají o 1,63 % na 384,68 USD.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight as earnings, analyst activity and interesting technicals converge.
Tesla stock is showing weakness. Why is TSLA stock retreating? Earnings History & What To ExpectTesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 22. Tesla is expected to post earnings per share of 44 cents and revenue of $25.24 billion. In the most recent quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.41, beating estimates of $0.30 by 0.37%. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, exceeding the estimate of $22.17 billion by 0.01%.
Over the last 4 quarters, Tesla has averaged an EPS surprise of 0.19% and a revenue surprise of 0.02%.
Investors should watch automotive gross margin excluding credits, along with operating margin, for evidence that revenue growth is translating into real operating leverage — recent earnings beats have leaned more on profitability improvements than outsized revenue surprises.
FSD and software-related revenue signals, including deferred revenue movement, services growth, and any commentary on take-rate, will also be closely watched, since much of Tesla’s valuation still hinges on a broader software ramp. Delivery volumes and pricing commentary should also offer clues on demand elasticity, since volume growth without pricing power could keep EPS capped even if revenue reaches the $25.24 billion target.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $405.70. Notable recent moves include:
Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $415.00 to $417.00) (July 14) Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $360.00 to $370.00) (July 14) Wells Fargo: Underweight (Raised Target from $125.00 to $130.00) (July 14) A Bearish Tilt, But Not A BreakdownTesla is trading below all of its major trend gauges, sitting 3.6% under the 20-day SMA ($398.63), 6.2% below the 50-day SMA ($409.97), and 7.9% below the 200-day SMA ($417.36). That alignment keeps the intermediate trend tilted bearish, especially with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the death cross (50-day below 200-day) that formed in April still in place.
Momentum is best framed through RSI, which is at 46.28—neutral, but leaning soft and consistent with a market that’s not showing strong upside pressure. RSI measures how "stretched" a move is, and a mid-40s reading typically signals choppy, two-sided trade rather than a clean trend day.
Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number area that can act as an overhead pivot where rebounds may stall Key Support: $380.00 — a nearby round-number level close to current trade where buyers may try to defend the pullback From a longer-term perspective, the stock is still up 22.43% over the past 12 months, but the more recent structure has been weaker after a swing low in April and a swing high in May. Traders will be watching whether price can hold the $380.00 area; losing it cleanly would keep the focus on downside follow-through, while reclaiming the 20-day/100-day area would be an early sign the tape is stabilizing.
Tesla Shares Edge LowerTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 1.63% lower at $384.68, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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You can buy Tesla (TSLA 2.29%) stock now, in the next trading session, or after quarterly earnings results are released on Wednesday, July 22. The main difference comes down to whether you think there's likely to be a catalyst in the results or presentations that could drive the stock higher after the results are announced.
Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries are growing again Tesla releases its delivery numbers at the start of each quarter, and as investors already know, it blew past expectations with 480,126 electric vehicle (EV) deliveries. Automotive revenue still makes up roughly three-quarters of Tesla's revenue, and based on historical numbers, Tesla's average revenue per unit (ARPU) for EVs is likely in the $42,000 to $43,000 range. Therefore, automotive revenue will probably be in the $20.1 billion to $20.7 billion range.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The midpoint of the range implies a 22% increase on the $16.67 billion reported in the same quarter of 2025. Whichever way you look at it, Tesla is growing its EV deliveries again, which helps confirm that the slowdown in the first half of 2025 really did come down to the Model Y refresh.
What investors need to look out for That said, the key to the investment case is Tesla's future stream of recurring income from full self-driving (FSD) software, Optimus robot-as-a-service revenue, and robotaxi revenue from its own fleet or a third-party robotaxi platform fee.
Consequently, every earnings presentation and earnings call is usually viewed as a kind of report card on the long-term development of Robotaxi and Optimus, in the context of publicly available developments in the quarter. Based on Tesla's last earnings call, it's hard to see the company saying anything revolutionary during the upcoming one.
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Optimus and robotaxi On Optimus, CEO Elon Musk said low-volume production would begin in the "late July/August" time frame, with the unveiling event taking place around then. Clearly, there's potential for Tesla to make a splash by announcing this, but it would merely confirm what management has already said.
Turning to robotaxis, while it's exciting to monitor the rollout, the reality is that an increase of a few robotaxis here or there, or an additional city (Miami was added in July), won't make a marginal difference to what really matters.
On the last earnings call, Musk said:
"It's not going to make sense for us to deploy unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety."
Those improvements will come with the release of v15 FSD, which will be a "complete overhaul of the software architecture" and will take safety to "another level." He also noted that v15 would "hopefully" be available this year, "but certainly by early next year."
Image source: The White House.
What to expect from Tesla's earnings presentations We pretty much know the key numbers based on the delivery data. On Optimus, confirmation of production starting/growing and an unveiling announcement would be good. However, the key question is the timeline for v15 development, because there won't be a robotaxi ramp without it.
All told, while Tesla remains an attractive stock for long-term investors, it's hard to see the company making any game-changing announcements on Optimus or robotaxi/v15 during the upcoming earnings presentations. In other words, if you like the stock, there's no need to rush to buy it before the earnings report.
Americký úřad NHTSA zamítl žádost Tesly, aby nemusela provést svolání asi 19 900 vozů kvůli světlometům s příliš silným osvitem. Týká se to Model 3 a Model Y z let 2017–2023.
The logo of Tesla is seen on a Tesla Model Y during Tesla Inc.'s official launch in Bogota, Colombia, November 20, 2025. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesWASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Thursday said it was denying a 2024 petition filed by Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab to avoid a recall fix for nearly 20,000 vehicles with headlights that may exceed maximum lighting levels.
Tesla argued the issue was inconsequential to motor vehicle safety and did not require a recall or notification to consumers. NHTSA said it disagreed with Tesla’s conclusion that there is no increased risk of glare for surrounding traffic or the driver of the vehicle. The recall covers about 19,900 2017-2023 model year Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y vehicles, NHTSA said.
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Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The agency noted in 2022 it rejected a similar petition from GM (GM.N), opens new tab to avoid fixing 820,000 vehicles over a lighting issue.
Tesla added it is unaware of any complaints or reports of accidents or injuries related to this issue and believes it is inconsequential to safety.
NHTSA said weather conditions such as rain, snow, and fog "could result in light from the noncompliant lamps causing veiling glare to the driver or other road users driving" near those Tesla vehicles.
A survey released by the American Automobile Association in March said 6 in 10 drivers say glare is a problem after dark, and nearly three-quarters of those believe it has worsened over the past decade.
NHTSA in 2022 rejected a petition to require a recall for vehicles using LED headlights including some Tesla Model 3, Ford Bronco, and Rivian R1T motor vehicles. The petition had argued they caused excessive glare.
Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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Deutsche Bank ponechala u Tesla doporučení Buy a zvýšila 12měsíční cenový cíl na 465 USD, což znamená potenciál růstu o 17 %. Banka ale čeká EPS za 2. čtvrtletí ve výši 0,36 USD, pod odhadem trhu.
As Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock held above a major multi-year support zone, a Deutsche Bank analyst reiterated bullish sentiment.
In a note to clients on July 15, Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating for Tesla stock. Additionally, the bank set a 12-month price target of $465 for TSLA shares, signaling a potential 17% upside.
“The analyst maintains a constructive long-term outlook on Tesla, emphasizing durable growth drivers (autonomy, robotics, and AI) while acknowledging near-term earnings pressure,” the bank noted.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla to report Q2 adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, which falls short of the Street consensus of $0.47. Nevertheless, the firm projects the company’s full-year vehicle deliveries of approximately 1.77 million units, representing mid- to high-single-digit growth compared to the prior year.
Why is Deutsche Bank bullish on Tesla stock? The bank highlighted several key developments in Tesla’s autonomous and robotics initiatives, likely to act as a tailwind. While the Tesla Robotaxi rollout has progressed more slowly than market expectations, Deutsche Bank pointed out that commercial operations in Austin have yet to experience any major accidents.
Meanwhile, Cybercab production has begun but is described as facing a “slow and painful ramp,” with the focus currently on engineering validation and internal testing ahead of broader scaling in late 2026 and 2027. On the robotics front, the bank noted optimistic targets for the Optimus humanoid, with production guidance of roughly 1,000 units per week by September.
Additionally, Tesla’s AI5 chip has completed tape-out, with initial supply prioritized for the company’s AI supercomputer and Optimus program. The upcoming Tesla earnings call is expected to draw significant investor attention to potential integration opportunities between Tesla and SpaceX, a topic analysts believe could become increasingly prominent over the next one to two years.
Despite these long-term tailwinds, Deutsche Bank flagged risks for Tesla stock, including the delayed Robotaxi timeline and execution challenges around the Cybercab ramp.
TSLA stock forecasts 2026 and performance Following the bank’s bullish TSLA stock forecast 2026, 29 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set a 12-month price target of $402.69. As such, analysts have assigned Tesla stock an average rating of Hold for the next 12 months.
TSLA stock forecast. Source: TipRanks Meanwhile, TSLA shares have been on an uptrend over the past 12 months, up over 23% to $396.67 at press time.
TSLA stock 12-month chart. Source: Finbold As such, the company had a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion at the time of reporting. If Tesla stock continues to benefit from bullish macro sentiment, the bank’s and analysts’ targets could be met, and vice versa.
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Key Takeaways Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and above our model estimate.Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh, up 40% year over year, led by Megapack and Powerwall demand.Tesla's high valuation, $25B capex plan and uncertain AI and robotaxi timelines weigh on its appeal. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 47 cents per share and $24.7 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised upward by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 17.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 10%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s revenues is pegged at $102 billion, implying a rise of 7.6% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.11, suggesting an uptick of around 27% on a year-over-year basis.
In the trailing four quarters, this electric vehicle (EV) and technology giant topped EPS estimates on three occasions and missed once, with the average negative earnings surprise being 5.48%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for TSLA
Our proprietary model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TSLA has an Earnings ESP of +16.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Tesla’s Q2 ResultsIn the second quarter, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles (including 467,762 Model 3/Y and 12,364 other models), beating our model estimate of 400,133 units. Deliveries increased 34% sequentially and 25% on a year-over-year basis. It was Tesla’s strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. Back then, sales got a similar lift when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired, prompting Tesla and other automakers to see a temporary surge in demand.
Second-quarter deliveries were largely driven by high gas prices amid the Middle East conflict, which likely pushed consumers toward EVs. Demand trends strengthened across key international markets like Europe and China.Although Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, Europe was a key catalyst, where sales momentum has been robust in recent months. In China, where Tesla commands a huge presence, retail deliveries rebounded strongly in May, snapping a two-month run of year-over-year sales declines. Despite softer U.S. demand, robust international performance helped offset the weakness.
Tesla’s smaller pure-play EV peers—Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) and Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) —came up with contrasting second-quarter delivery reports. While Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, topping estimates and its own prior guidance, Lucid fell short of expectations, delivering just 3,953 vehicles.
Coming back to Tesla, we expect the company’s automotive revenues and gross margins to improve year over year on the back of strong deliveries. We forecast second-quarter total automotive revenues and gross margins at $17 billion (up over 2% year over year) and $3.2 billion (up 11% year over year).
The company’s energy business revenues are also expected to increase as Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter, reflecting an uptick of 53% and 40% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The number also came ahead of our model projection of 12.66 GWh. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected demand for Megapack and Powerwall.
Tesla Price Performance & ValuationOver the past year, shares of Tesla have risen 23%, outperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla stock is quite overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 13.68, way higher than the industry as well as its own 5-year average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play TSLA Stock NowYes, Tesla's delivery trends are improving, but deliveries are no longer the company's central growth story. Its energy storage business is also performing well, though it still accounts for a relatively small portion of overall revenues.
Tesla has aggressively pivoted toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). The problem is these are long-cycle bets with uncertain timelines. The company operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami and supervised service in the San Fransico Bay Area. Still, it has a lot of catching up to do with Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) Waymo, which is the frontrunner in this space. CEO Elon Musk has already pushed back the robotaxi timeline. The story with Optimus is also not much different. On the first-quarter earnings call, Musk admitted production will be “quite slow” and said it’s “literally impossible to predict” output this year.
On top of that, Tesla lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion. Management has warned that free cash flow could turn negative as it ramps up spending on AI and autonomous-driving initiatives.
Tesla does possess a powerful brand, industry-leading technology capabilities, and multiple long-term growth platforms. Tesla’s next chapter could be transformational, but it is capital-intensive, high-risk, and likely years away from delivering material financial returns. Until then, execution and valuation risks remain concerning. As such, from a broader perspective, this may not be the right entry point for new investors, even if Tesla beats second-quarter earnings expectations.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered record Q2 2026 volumes, but quality of demand is deteriorating amid heavy incentives and falling average selling prices.Despite strong top-line growth, TSLA faces negative free cash flow projections for 2026–2027 as capital expenditures outpace operating cash generation.My sum-of-the-parts analysis yields a fair value of $127/share, implying 68% downside versus the current ~$400 price—justifying a continued Strong Sell rating.At TSLA stock's current valuation, the market is pricing in unproven future success for Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD, while core automotive profitability and cash flow weaken. Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Executive Summary Did you know that a restaurant can fill all its tables Monday through Sunday and still lose money? It seems absurd, but all it takes is offering overly generous discounts, or financing
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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Akcie Tesly v pondělí klesly o více než 3 %, protože investoři dál čekají na další pokrok v oblasti umělé inteligence a robotaxi. Trh navíc oslabil po oznámení Donalda Trumpa o obnovení blokády íránské lodní dopravy přes Hormuzský průliv.
Tesla stock TSLA fell more than 3% on Monday as investors continued to wait for further progress in the company's artificial intelligence initiatives.
The electric-vehicle maker's stock traded at $393.56 during Monday's session.
The broader market also came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 132 points, or 0.3%.
Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving.”
Tesla investors have increasingly focused on the company's artificial intelligence strategy, particularly the rollout of its autonomous robotaxi service and the commercialization of its Optimus humanoid robot.
The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. While the launch generated significant attention, the expansion has progressed gradually.
The service now operates in several cities but remains substantially smaller than Alphabet's Waymo.
Tesla has yet to begin commercial sales of Optimus, although it is preparing manufacturing capacity for the humanoid robot.
On Friday, the company released a video showing the decommissioning of the Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California, facility.
According to Tesla, the process of removing tooling and infrastructure took less than 50 days, allowing the factory to prepare for Optimus production while continuing to manufacture Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
Tesla announced in January that it would discontinue production of the Model S and Model X to repurpose manufacturing capacity for robots. Chief Executive Elon Musk has described humanoid robots as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
Despite those plans, investors continue to await updates on the latest version of Optimus as competing robotics companies.
Tesla is expected to provide additional updates on Optimus when it reports second-quarter earnings on July 22.
Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $375 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company's stronger-than-expected second-quarter automotive deliveries.
Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, including 467,800 Model 3 and Model Y units, exceeding the consensus estimate of around 410,000 vehicles.
Following the delivery results, Jefferies increased its second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes estimate to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin.
The firm also increased its automotive revenue forecast to $21 billion, including $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million in leasing revenue.
Jefferies expects total group revenue of $28.7 billion and group EBIT of $1.45 billion for the quarter.
Earlier this month, RBC Capital raised its price target on Tesla to $500 from $475, incorporating a premium tied to a potential merger with SpaceX while also updating its standalone valuation for the automaker.
Analyst Tom Narayan said the revised target reflects "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports."
According to RBC, the most likely transaction structure would involve an all-stock acquisition in which SpaceX acquires Tesla at a 20% to 30% premium.
The firm said the rationale centers on operational collaboration, including proprietary chip manufacturing, Megapacks for data center energy requirements, and joint AI training and fleet management services.
RBC also said Tesla shareholders would likely require a premium because Musk "would control 50%+ of a combined entity, well above the ~20% stake he currently holds in Tesla."
Excluding any potential SpaceX acquisition premium, RBC valued Tesla at $435 per share.
Within that valuation, Narayan increased the firm's robotaxi segment valuation by 20%, citing a higher forecast for the global robotaxi fleet and describing the business as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered 480,126 vehicles, exceeding consensus by 18%, while deliveries outpaced production, signaling healthy inventory reduction ahead of earnings.Consecutive EPS surprises, including a 17.15% Q1 beat, alongside consistent revenue outperformance have strengthened confidence in Tesla's near-term fundamentals.Analysts continue raising TSLA forecasts, with Q2 EPS estimates up 8.89% and revenue expectations climbing 4.8% over the past month.Consensus projects newer vehicle deliveries to surge 546% by FY30, supporting a higher-margin product mix beyond the mature Model 3/Y lineup.Robotaxi expansion, regulatory scrutiny, and widely dispersed earnings estimates remain key TSLA risks that could challenge Tesla's long-term valuation assumptions. LPETTET/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Investment Thesis The market has finally started to catch up with what has been happening at Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). While it was skeptical about the stock during the last few months due to
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
