Traders on Polymarket have sharply scaled back bets that a Tesla-SpaceX merger will be announced this year, even as Wall Street analysts insist a tie-up is only a matter of time.
The prediction market now puts just an 11% chance on an official announcement by 30 September, down 28 percentage points, while the odds of a deal being unveiled by 31 December have fallen 19 points to 24%.
More than $836,000 has been wagered across the market, which resolves yes if either company announces it is being acquired by or merged with the other, regardless of whether the deal completes.
The retreat contrasts with bullish calls from analysts, with Wedbush's Dan Ives putting the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up at about 80% and arguing the connective tissue between the companies is already forming.
Speculation intensified after SpaceX's $85.7 billion initial public offering, which created a company now valued at around $2.44 trillion with $100.8 billion in cash.
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell declined to dismiss the idea when asked directly in June, suggesting a tie-up might make Elon Musk's life a little easier.
Musk has exercised 304 million Tesla options, lifting his voting stake to 19.9% as he targets the 25% control he says is needed to advance the carmaker's AI ambitions.
The two companies already share extensive commercial ties, including joint ownership of the Terafab chip facility, and SpaceX bought $697 million of Tesla's Megapack battery systems in 2024 and 2025.
Musk has form for consolidation, having folded social media platform X into xAI in 2025 before SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal this year.
Musk himself has acknowledged the complexity, telling analysts that any deal would have to make sure Tesla shareholders are served and SpaceX shareholders are served.
Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA shares have been consolidating ahead of the company's July 22 Q2 earnings report, with the stock's recent range continuing to narrow. That kind of price-action tightening is often a sign that the market is firmly in wait-and-see mode.
However, Tesla recently delivered a surprisingly strong data point that might just swing the balance in favor of the bulls. Earlier this month, the company reported record quarterly deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, beating consensus estimates by 18%. Just as importantly, deliveries outpaced production, a sign that inventory levels are healthy heading into the report rather than being propped up by discounting or channel stuffing.
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On paper, that's exactly the kind of headline that should silence at least some of the critics who’ve been questioning demand, worrying about Chinese competition, and flagging a valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.
The real question is whether it could actually translate into the kind of knockout earnings report that proves the bears wrong and gets the stock turning north again.
Its EV Business Has Some Life Left YetIt's worth noting that this delivery beat has arrived just as Tesla's core EV business has been looking its most vulnerable. Slowing growth, mounting competition, and questions over demand had combined to leave its established car business looking increasingly tired in recent months.
And while much of the investor focus has indeed shifted to other parts of the business, this latest number is the clearest sign yet that there might be some juice left in its EV business.
What makes that all the more compelling is that the stock hasn't really moved to reflect that shift. Deliveries beating estimates by roughly 18% is the kind of print that would usually spark a meaningful jump in shares. Instead, they’ve barely budged, which suggests the market either hasn't fully absorbed the news or remains too nervous to commit ahead of the report.
Why Margins Could Actually Matter MoreFor all the enthusiasm around the delivery beat, the real swing factor for the July 22 report could be the company’s gross margin. Deliveries can tell investors how many cars Tesla sold, but the margins tell them how profitably it sold them, and that's ultimately the number the market cares most about.
Gross margin deterioration has been flagged repeatedly as one of the company’s primary headwinds, and for good reason. Tesla has leaned on price cuts and incentives at various points over the past few years to keep volumes moving. If that dynamic shows up again in the Q2 numbers, it could easily offset the goodwill generated by the delivery beat.
The AI and Robotics Story Adds Another LayerFor those tempted to lean into the potential upside surprise in the Q2 earnings report, several other factors support the bull case. Beyond the core automotive business, Tesla's non-EV ambitions have been quietly gathering momentum, and they are likely to feature heavily in how investors judge the update.
The ongoing rollout of its robotaxi service is a good example, with Tesla recently expanding the offering to Miami. Its energy storage business has also been climbing steadily, emerging as an additional high-margin growth engine in its own right.
Add in the continued progress on its Full Self-Driving and Optimus initiatives, and the picture that emerges is of a company whose growth story no longer rests solely on vehicle sales. For a stock that's often been valued as much for its future potential as for its present-day earnings, that broadening base of momentum gives the bulls plenty to point to heading into the earnings report.
Sizing Up the OpportunityTesla Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$408.07
3.48% Upside
Hold
Based on 46 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$394.35High Forecast$600.00Average Forecast$408.07Low Forecast$25.28Tesla Stock Forecast Details
For those currently watching from the wings, the reality remains that Tesla is a famously divisive ticker, a sentiment that hasn't shifted despite the recent delivery strength. Wall Street's overall consensus rating remains a Hold, underscoring the split. Wells Fargo reiterated its Underweight rating, while other analysts have continued to focus on Tesla's long-term AI and robotics potential.
It’s this kind of divergence that places so much weight on the earnings call. If Tesla can pair healthy margins with some genuinely bullish updates to its newer growth engines, it should be enough to swing the narrative firmly back toward the bulls.
However, should those numbers miss the mark, the long-standing questions about its premium valuation will likely linger, regardless of how many cars were delivered last quarter. Either way, the coming days should finally offer some clarity on which side of the argument has been getting it right.
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The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said Wednesday that the driver of a Tesla who crashed into a house in June had pressed the accelerator pedal to 100%, overriding the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software.
Data recovered from the Tesla showed that the vehicle was traveling more than 70 miles per hour when it struck a house in Katy, Texas, killing 76-year-old resident Martha Avila, according to the NTSB. The family of the victim has since sued the alleged driver, 44-year-old Michael Butler, and Tesla, claiming negligence. Butler has also been charged with manslaughter.
The safety board shared the information as part of a preliminary report on the progress of its investigation into the crash. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is also probing the incident.
The data confirms Tesla’s account of the crash, which the company shared in the days after it happened in order to show that its advanced driver assistance system wasn’t to blame. “[T]his [allegation] makes no sense. FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash!” Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote on X shortly after the crash.
The NTSB said Wednesday that the 44-year-old driver was using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) on Rose Hollow Lane, a residential two-lane road with a speed limit of 30 miles per hour, prior to the crash. Security camera footage obtained by the safety board showed the car accelerating through an intersection, leaving the road, and hitting the house. The “weather was clear, the roadway was dry, and daylight conditions were present,” according to the NTSB.
Tesla requires that drivers using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) pay attention to the road and be ready to take control at any moment. Butler allegedly told authorities that he had “passed out” and that he was using Tesla’s driver assistance system. Police reportedly discovered that his Google searches included the terms “Tesla FSD not aggressive enough 2026,” “Tesla not aggressive enough,” and “Tesla FSD too timid,” according to local ABC news affiliate station KTRK TV.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
Battery X Metals has successfully completed a first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype, marking a significant commercial readiness milestone for its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform. The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y represent one of the world's largest installed electric vehicle platforms and collectively account for more than half of the U.S. electric vehicle market, with the Model Y representing approximately 34.2% of U.S. EV sales and the Model 3 approximately 20.2%, reinforcing the strategic importance of compatibility with these battery architectures
The engineering validation program successfully confirmed the Tesla Adaptor's proprietary interface architecture, including mechanical fitment, dimensional accuracy, electrical interface alignment and standardized battery pack connectivity. Management believes this establishes a repeatable engineering framework to support future proprietary adaptor development across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery platforms.
Battery X Metals has commenced the next phase of development focused on advancing the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product. As part of this initiative, the Company has acquired a Tesla Model 3 battery pack for dedicated research and development, engineering validation and working prototype testing while continuing to expand compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery platforms.
VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESS Newswire / July 15, 2026 / Battery X Metals Inc. (CSE:BATX)(OTCQB:BATXF)(FSE:5YW0, WKN:A41RJF)("Battery X Metals" or the "Company") an energy transition resource exploration and technology company, announces that, further to its news release dated January 2, 2026, the Company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies Inc. ("Battery X Rebalancing Technologies"), together with its strategic lithium-ion battery rebalancing hardware and software development partner, Beijing Pengneng Science & Technology Ltd. ("BJPN"), has successfully completed development of a first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype (the "Tesla Adaptor").
Development of the First-Generation Tesla Adaptor
Building upon the Company's Tesla battery interface characterization program, as previously disclosed in its news release dated January 2, 2026, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies, in collaboration with BJPN, successfully developed the first-generation Tesla Adaptor working prototype. The prototype represents the initial physical implementation of the Company's proprietary digital engineering model, designed to establish a standardized interface with Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery platforms.
The first-generation Tesla Adaptor was developed as an engineering validation prototype rather than a commercial production unit. This phase was undertaken to validate the Company's proprietary interface architecture by demonstrating that its digital engineering design could be successfully translated into a functional physical assembly capable of reliably interfacing with Tesla battery systems.
The successful completion of this development milestone confirmed key engineering objectives, including mechanical fitment, dimensional accuracy, electrical interface alignment, and standardized connectivity with Tesla battery packs. Collectively, these achievements validate the foundational interface architecture and establish an important engineering platform for the continued development, optimization, and future commercialization of the Company's battery rebalancing ecosystem.
Commercial Significance
The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y collectively represent one of the largest and most strategically significant electric vehicle platforms globally. Tesla is expected to surpass 10 million cumulative global vehicle sales during the third quarter of 2026.1 Of these cumulative deliveries, the Tesla Model 3 is estimated to account for approximately 3.50 million vehicles, while the Tesla Model Y is estimated to account for approximately 5.39 million vehicles.1 Together, the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are estimated to represent approximately 8.89 million cumulative vehicle sales, accounting for approximately 89% of Tesla's expected cumulative global deliveries.2
Tesla continues to be the leading electric vehicle manufacturer in the United States, accounting for approximately 59.7% of the U.S. electric vehicle market as of January 2026.3 Within that market, the Tesla Model Y represents approximately 34.2% of all U.S. EV sales, while the Tesla Model 3 represents approximately 20.2%, collectively accounting for more than half of the U.S. electric vehicle market.3 Management believes focusing commercialization efforts on battery architectures supporting these market-leading vehicles positions the Company's battery rebalancing platform to address one of the largest installed electric vehicle populations in North America.3
Battery X Metals believes compatibility with these high-volume battery architectures represents a significant commercial readiness milestone in the Company's broader multi-platform commercialization strategy, supporting the expansion of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform across one of the world's largest installed electric vehicle populations.
Through the development of proprietary adaptor solutions for leading electric vehicle battery architectures, the Company intends to establish a scalable compatibility ecosystem capable of supporting deployment across automotive service centres, dealership networks, fleet operators, and other commercial customers. The first-generation Tesla Adaptor represents a foundational milestone in executing this strategy, enabling standardized integration with one of the industry's largest battery platforms while expanding the addressable market for the Company's battery diagnostics, rebalancing, and battery lifespan extension technologies.
As millions of electric vehicles transition beyond their original battery warranty coverage, the Company believes demand for technologies that restore usable battery capacity, extend battery lifespan, and reduce total cost of ownership will continue to increase. By expanding compatibility across high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures, Battery X Metals believes it is well positioned to participate in the rapidly emerging battery lifecycle management market.
Next Steps
With completion of the foundational engineering validation phase, the Company has commenced the next stage of development focused on advancing the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product. Future development activities are expected to include continued engineering optimization, industrial design refinement, material selection, manufacturability, durability enhancement, commercial product integration and ongoing interface validation to further optimize repeatability, reliability and compatibility across Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery platforms.
The Company intends to continue expanding its proprietary adaptor portfolio and multi-platform compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures as part of its long-term commercialization strategy. Management believes this systematic development approach strengthens the technical infrastructure supporting broader deployment of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform while expanding its commercial applicability and serviceable addressable market.
As part of its next phase of development, the Company acquired a Tesla Model 3 battery pack from an arm's length third party for $500, plus applicable GST, for dedicated research and development purposes. The battery pack will be used to further refine the commercial version of the Company's proprietary Tesla Adaptor, conduct additional engineering validation, and perform working prototype testing under representative operating conditions. Management believes this in-house testing capability will support continued product optimization and accelerate development toward a production-oriented commercial product.
As part of its broader commercialization strategy, the Company intends to continue advancing its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform through additional software and hardware enhancements, engineering validation, product optimization and Underwriters Laboratories ("UL") certification. Development of the Tesla Adaptor is also expected to continue through additional hardware refinement, engineering validation and UL certification. The Company is currently evaluating the scope, timing and anticipated costs associated with these commercialization activities, including engineering, certification, manufacturing readiness and go-to-market initiatives. Commercialization of both the Company's battery rebalancing platform and the Tesla Adaptor remains subject to the completion of these development activities, receipt of UL certification, manufacturing readiness, execution of go-to-market initiatives, the availability of adequate capital resources and other customary commercialization requirements.
The Problem: Rising EV Adoption Presents New Battery Lifecycle Challenges
In 2024, global EV sales reached approximately 17.1 million units, representing a 25% increase from 2023.4 With cumulative global EV sales from 2015 to 2023 totaling an estimated over 40 million units,5 a significant share of the global EV fleet is expected to exit warranty coverage over the coming years. 6,7
By 2031, nearly 40 million electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid vehicles worldwide are anticipated to fall outside of their original warranty coverage.6,7 This projection is based on current EV adoption figures and standard industry warranty terms, and underscores a growing risk for EV owners facing battery degradation, reduced capacity, and costly replacement requirements.8 As the global EV fleet continues to expand, the demand for technologies that extend battery life, reduce long-term ownership costs, and support a sustainable transition to electric mobility is increasing.
The Solution: Pioneering Next-Generation Technologies to Support Lithium-Ion Battery Longevity
Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' proprietary software and hardware technology aims to address this challenge by extending the lifespan of EV batteries. This innovation is being developed with the aim to enhance the sustainability of electric transportation and the goal to provide EV owners with a more cost-effective, environmentally friendly ownership experience by reducing the need for costly battery replacements.
Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' rebalancing technology, validated by the National Research Council of Canada ("NRC"), focuses on battery cell rebalancing. The NRC validation demonstrated the technology's ability to effectively correct cell imbalances in lithium-ion battery packs, recovering nearly all lost capacity due to cell imbalance. The validation was conducted on battery modules composed of fifteen 72Ah LiFePO₄ cells connected in series. The cells were initially balanced to a uniform state of charge (SOC), with a measured discharge capacity of 71.10Ah. In the validation test, three of the fifteen cells were then artificially imbalanced-one cell was charged to a 20% higher SOC, and two cells were discharged to a 20% lower SOC-resulting in a reduced discharge capacity of 46.24Ah, representing a decrease of approximately 35%. Following rebalancing using Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' rebalancing technology, the battery module's discharge capacity was restored to 70.94Ah, representing the recovery of approximately 99% of the capacity lost due to cell imbalance.
These advancements establish Battery X Rebalancing Technologies as a participant in lithium-ion and EV battery solutions, aiming to tackle the critical challenges of capacity degradation of battery packs and expensive replacements. By extending the lifecycle of battery materials within the supply chain, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies aims to support the energy transition and promote a more sustainable future.
1 CleanTechnica, 2 Calculated by the Company based on estimated cumulative Tesla Model 3 and Model Y sales published by CleanTechnica, 3 Edmunds, 4 Rho Motion - Global EV Sales 2024, 5 IEA Global EV Outlook 2024, 6 IEA, 7 U.S. News, 8 Recurrent Auto
About Battery X Metals Inc.
Battery X Metals (CSE:BATX)(OTCQB:BATXF)(FSE:5YW0, WKN: A41RJF) is an energy transition resource exploration and technology company committed to advancing domestic battery and critical metal resource exploration and developing next-generation proprietary technologies. Taking a diversified, 360° approach to the battery metals industry, the Company focuses on exploration, lifespan extension, and recycling of lithium-ion batteries and battery materials. For more information, visit batteryxmetals.com.
On Behalf of the Board of Directors
Massimo Bellini Bressi, Director
For further information, please contact:
Massimo Bellini Bressi
Chief Executive Officer
Email: [email protected]
Tel: (604) 694-9823
Disclaimer for Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements in this release relate to, among other things: the Company's business objectives, strategies and future plans relating to the continued development, optimization, refinement, engineering validation, manufacturing readiness and commercialization of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform and proprietary battery adaptor technology; the significance of the successful completion of the first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype; the anticipated benefits, commercial significance and scalability of the Company's proprietary battery adaptor architecture and multi-platform commercialization strategy; the continued development, validation, refinement, certification and commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor and additional proprietary battery adaptors for other electric vehicle battery platforms; the Company's ability to expand compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures; the anticipated benefits of compatibility expansion activities; the commercial applicability and serviceable addressable market of the Company's battery lifecycle management technologies; the advancement of the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product; the anticipated benefits of the Company's research and development activities, including engineering validation and working prototype testing utilizing the Tesla Model 3 battery pack; the evaluation of the scope, timing and anticipated costs associated with future commercialization activities, including engineering, certification, UL certification, manufacturing readiness, regulatory approvals and go-to-market initiatives; the anticipated growth of the out-of-warranty electric vehicle market; the expected demand for battery diagnostics, battery rebalancing and battery lifespan extension technologies; the Company's ability to obtain, maintain and protect intellectual property rights relating to its proprietary and patent-pending technologies; the anticipated commercial performance, customer adoption and market acceptance of the Company's technologies; and the Company's broader commercialization strategy and participation in the battery lifecycle management market. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are believed to be reasonable as of the date of this news release, including assumptions regarding the continued advancement of product development activities; the successful engineering optimization, validation, refinement, certification and commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor and future proprietary battery adaptors; the successful completion of research and development and engineering validation activities; the successful expansion of compatibility across additional electric vehicle battery platforms; the completion of UL certification and other required regulatory or commercial approvals; the continued cooperation of third-party development partners, manufacturers, suppliers and service providers; the continued growth of electric vehicle adoption and the out-of-warranty electric vehicle market; the continued availability and reliability of third-party market data and industry information referenced herein; the anticipated demand for battery lifecycle management solutions; the Company's ability to obtain, maintain and enforce intellectual property protection for its proprietary technologies; the availability of adequate capital and other resources to complete commercialization activities; and the Company's ability to execute its commercialization strategy. However, forward-looking statements are inherently subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: technical, engineering, manufacturing or operational challenges; delays or failures in the continued development, refinement, validation, certification or commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor, the Company's battery rebalancing platform or additional proprietary battery adaptors; the possibility that engineering validation activities or prototype testing may not be replicated in future testing, production environments or commercial applications, and that successful prototype validation may not result in a commercially viable product; challenges associated with expanding compatibility across additional electric vehicle battery platforms; changes in electric vehicle technologies, battery architectures, communication protocols, battery chemistries, firmware, software, industry standards or competitive conditions, including changes to Tesla battery systems that may require additional engineering, redesign or validation; delays in obtaining UL certification or other regulatory or commercial approvals, achieving manufacturing readiness, executing go-to-market initiatives, commencing commercial production or achieving customer adoption or market acceptance; reliance on third-party development partners, manufacturers, suppliers and service providers; risks relating to the protection, maintenance, enforcement or validity of the Company's intellectual property rights and patent-pending technologies; the possibility that third-party market data or industry estimates referenced herein may change or be revised; financing, regulatory, legal and intellectual property risks; the availability of adequate capital resources to complete commercialization activities; general economic, market and geopolitical conditions; and other risks associated with the development and commercialization of emerging clean technologies. There can be no assurance that the Company's battery rebalancing platform or the Tesla Adaptor will successfully progress beyond engineering validation to commercial production, that anticipated commercialization milestones or timelines, including completion of development activities, certification, manufacturing readiness, regulatory approvals or go-to-market initiatives, will be achieved, that compatibility with additional battery platforms will be successfully developed or commercialized, that the Company's technologies will achieve commercial performance, customer adoption or market acceptance, that adequate capital resources will be available to complete commercialization activities, or that the Company will successfully commercialize or achieve widespread adoption of its battery rebalancing platform or proprietary battery adaptor technologies. Except as required by applicable securities laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information to reflect new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult the Company's continuous disclosure filings available under its profile on SEDAR+ for additional risk factors and further information.
As Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock held above a major multi-year support zone, a Deutsche Bank analyst reiterated bullish sentiment.
In a note to clients on July 15, Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating for Tesla stock. Additionally, the bank set a 12-month price target of $465 for TSLA shares, signaling a potential 17% upside.
“The analyst maintains a constructive long-term outlook on Tesla, emphasizing durable growth drivers (autonomy, robotics, and AI) while acknowledging near-term earnings pressure,” the bank noted.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla to report Q2 adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, which falls short of the Street consensus of $0.47. Nevertheless, the firm projects the company’s full-year vehicle deliveries of approximately 1.77 million units, representing mid- to high-single-digit growth compared to the prior year.
Why is Deutsche Bank bullish on Tesla stock? The bank highlighted several key developments in Tesla’s autonomous and robotics initiatives, likely to act as a tailwind. While the Tesla Robotaxi rollout has progressed more slowly than market expectations, Deutsche Bank pointed out that commercial operations in Austin have yet to experience any major accidents.
Meanwhile, Cybercab production has begun but is described as facing a “slow and painful ramp,” with the focus currently on engineering validation and internal testing ahead of broader scaling in late 2026 and 2027. On the robotics front, the bank noted optimistic targets for the Optimus humanoid, with production guidance of roughly 1,000 units per week by September.
Additionally, Tesla’s AI5 chip has completed tape-out, with initial supply prioritized for the company’s AI supercomputer and Optimus program. The upcoming Tesla earnings call is expected to draw significant investor attention to potential integration opportunities between Tesla and SpaceX, a topic analysts believe could become increasingly prominent over the next one to two years.
Despite these long-term tailwinds, Deutsche Bank flagged risks for Tesla stock, including the delayed Robotaxi timeline and execution challenges around the Cybercab ramp.
TSLA stock forecasts 2026 and performance Following the bank’s bullish TSLA stock forecast 2026, 29 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set a 12-month price target of $402.69. As such, analysts have assigned Tesla stock an average rating of Hold for the next 12 months.
TSLA stock forecast. Source: TipRanks Meanwhile, TSLA shares have been on an uptrend over the past 12 months, up over 23% to $396.67 at press time.
TSLA stock 12-month chart. Source: Finbold As such, the company had a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion at the time of reporting. If Tesla stock continues to benefit from bullish macro sentiment, the bank’s and analysts’ targets could be met, and vice versa.
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Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 22, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis electric car maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +17.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $24.73 billion, up 10% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.22% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Tesla?For Tesla, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +16.12%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that Tesla will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Tesla would post earnings of $0.36 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.41, delivering a surprise of +13.89%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Tesla appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Key Takeaways SPCX is now Musk's primary wealth driver as its valuation, launch leadership and Starlink expand.Reusable rockets and frequent missions give SpaceX a commanding share of commercial launches.Starlink's recurring revenue and SpaceX's AI infrastructure push broaden its long-term growth base. For years, Tesla Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) has been the crown jewel of Elon Musk's businesses. The electric vehicle (EV) pioneer had revolutionized the auto industry with its innovations and generated enormous wealth for shareholders, becoming the golden goose of Musk's sprawling empire.
But the narrative is gradually beginning to shift.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) has rapidly emerged as one of the world's most valuable business enterprises, driven by the success of its reusable launch business and the explosive growth of Starlink, its satellite broadband unit. As SpaceX's valuation continues to soar, several experts believe that it has overtaken Tesla as the largest contributor to Musk's net worth, with exposure to several powerful secular growth themes.
Let us delve a little deeper into the companies’ competitive dynamics to analyze the claim.
Why SpaceX is Gaining the Upper HandWith a blockbuster IPO that raised an unprecedented $75 billion, SpaceX surpassed Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) by market capitalization and even briefly overtook Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) . From revolutionizing launch services with reusable rockets to building the world's largest satellite broadband network, SpaceX intends to strengthen its position as the dominant force in the rapidly expanding space economy.
Leadership in Commercial Space LaunchesSpaceX has built an enviable competitive moat through its reusable rocket technology. Its Falcon 9 remains the industry's workhorse, enabling the company to dominate the global commercial launch market while serving NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense and several international customers. Frequent launches not only strengthen revenue visibility but also reinforce SpaceX's technological leadership. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.
Starlink Has Become a Major Growth EngineStarlink is arguably the biggest driver of SpaceX's rising valuation. The satellite broadband business has expanded rapidly by providing high-speed Internet connectivity to consumers, businesses, airlines, maritime operators and government agencies across the globe. Unlike the cyclical launch business, Starlink generates recurring subscription revenue, offering investors a more predictable and scalable growth model. As subscriber additions continue and enterprise adoption expands, Starlink is increasingly viewed as SpaceX's long-term earnings powerhouse.
Focus on Integrated AI InfrastructureSpaceX is aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink. As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, will operate under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure. SpaceX has also entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market.
Tesla Remains a Technology LeaderWhile Tesla has faced a more challenging operating environment recently, the company remains much more than an EV manufacturer.
AI Could Drive the Next Phase of GrowthTesla's long-term investment thesis increasingly hinges on AI. Its Full Self-Driving software, Dojo supercomputer and autonomous driving ambitions could eventually transform it into a mobility and AI platform rather than simply an automaker. Successful commercialization of robotaxis would open a sizable new revenue stream and support a higher valuation multiple.
Energy Storage is Becoming a Bigger ContributorTesla Energy has quietly emerged as one of the company's fastest-growing businesses. Growing demand for Megapack battery storage systems from utilities and commercial customers is helping diversify revenue beyond vehicle sales. As renewable energy adoption accelerates globally, Tesla's energy business could become an increasingly important earnings driver.
Strong Manufacturing CapabilitiesTesla has certain advantages through vertical integration, manufacturing efficiency and software expertise. Its global production footprint and ability to scale operations remain key competitive strengths despite mounting competition across the EV market.
Has SpaceX Moved Up in the Hierarchy?Both SpaceX and Tesla have execution risk with near-term headwinds. However, SpaceX has become the primary driver of Elon Musk's personal wealth thanks to its rapidly rising market valuation, leadership in commercial space launches and the strong growth trajectory of Starlink. Unlike Tesla, whose core automotive business is navigating slowing industry growth and intensifying competition, SpaceX continues to operate in markets with significant barriers to entry and relatively limited competition.
However, that does not diminish Tesla's long-term investment case. Tesla remains one of the most innovative companies in the world, with significant opportunities in autonomous driving, AI and energy storage. But the growing prominence of SpaceX underscores just how dramatically the center of gravity within Musk's business empire has shifted.
Both SpaceX and Tesla currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and above our model estimate.Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh, up 40% year over year, led by Megapack and Powerwall demand.Tesla's high valuation, $25B capex plan and uncertain AI and robotaxi timelines weigh on its appeal. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 47 cents per share and $24.7 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised upward by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 17.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 10%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s revenues is pegged at $102 billion, implying a rise of 7.6% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.11, suggesting an uptick of around 27% on a year-over-year basis.
In the trailing four quarters, this electric vehicle (EV) and technology giant topped EPS estimates on three occasions and missed once, with the average negative earnings surprise being 5.48%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for TSLA
Our proprietary model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TSLA has an Earnings ESP of +16.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Tesla’s Q2 ResultsIn the second quarter, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles (including 467,762 Model 3/Y and 12,364 other models), beating our model estimate of 400,133 units. Deliveries increased 34% sequentially and 25% on a year-over-year basis. It was Tesla’s strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. Back then, sales got a similar lift when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired, prompting Tesla and other automakers to see a temporary surge in demand.
Second-quarter deliveries were largely driven by high gas prices amid the Middle East conflict, which likely pushed consumers toward EVs. Demand trends strengthened across key international markets like Europe and China.Although Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, Europe was a key catalyst, where sales momentum has been robust in recent months. In China, where Tesla commands a huge presence, retail deliveries rebounded strongly in May, snapping a two-month run of year-over-year sales declines. Despite softer U.S. demand, robust international performance helped offset the weakness.
Tesla’s smaller pure-play EV peers—Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) and Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) —came up with contrasting second-quarter delivery reports. While Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, topping estimates and its own prior guidance, Lucid fell short of expectations, delivering just 3,953 vehicles.
Coming back to Tesla, we expect the company’s automotive revenues and gross margins to improve year over year on the back of strong deliveries. We forecast second-quarter total automotive revenues and gross margins at $17 billion (up over 2% year over year) and $3.2 billion (up 11% year over year).
The company’s energy business revenues are also expected to increase as Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter, reflecting an uptick of 53% and 40% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The number also came ahead of our model projection of 12.66 GWh. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected demand for Megapack and Powerwall.
Tesla Price Performance & ValuationOver the past year, shares of Tesla have risen 23%, outperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla stock is quite overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 13.68, way higher than the industry as well as its own 5-year average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play TSLA Stock NowYes, Tesla's delivery trends are improving, but deliveries are no longer the company's central growth story. Its energy storage business is also performing well, though it still accounts for a relatively small portion of overall revenues.
Tesla has aggressively pivoted toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). The problem is these are long-cycle bets with uncertain timelines. The company operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami and supervised service in the San Fransico Bay Area. Still, it has a lot of catching up to do with Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) Waymo, which is the frontrunner in this space. CEO Elon Musk has already pushed back the robotaxi timeline. The story with Optimus is also not much different. On the first-quarter earnings call, Musk admitted production will be “quite slow” and said it’s “literally impossible to predict” output this year.
On top of that, Tesla lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion. Management has warned that free cash flow could turn negative as it ramps up spending on AI and autonomous-driving initiatives.
Tesla does possess a powerful brand, industry-leading technology capabilities, and multiple long-term growth platforms. Tesla’s next chapter could be transformational, but it is capital-intensive, high-risk, and likely years away from delivering material financial returns. Until then, execution and valuation risks remain concerning. As such, from a broader perspective, this may not be the right entry point for new investors, even if Tesla beats second-quarter earnings expectations.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered record Q2 2026 volumes, but quality of demand is deteriorating amid heavy incentives and falling average selling prices.Despite strong top-line growth, TSLA faces negative free cash flow projections for 2026–2027 as capital expenditures outpace operating cash generation.My sum-of-the-parts analysis yields a fair value of $127/share, implying 68% downside versus the current ~$400 price—justifying a continued Strong Sell rating.At TSLA stock's current valuation, the market is pricing in unproven future success for Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD, while core automotive profitability and cash flow weaken. Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Executive Summary Did you know that a restaurant can fill all its tables Monday through Sunday and still lose money? It seems absurd, but all it takes is offering overly generous discounts, or financing
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), also known as just SpaceX, is a company that could disrupt many different industries, including space travel and telecom. But one that investors may not have considered is the smartphone market. While its Starlink service offers mobile internet for smartphones, CEO Elon Musk has also hinted that entering the smartphone market may be a possibility.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company reportedly has a prototype for a device that's similar to an iPhone According to a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX has been working on a device that has a slimmer design than Apple's iPhone. While it's designed to help people interact with artificial intelligence (AI), its capabilities could certainly extend beyond that, as it's expected to use a Snapdragon chipset from Qualcomm.
The device is nowhere near launching, and there is no certainty that it will even come to market. But with Musk being critical of Apple's restrictive app store policies, it also wouldn't be surprising if he were to want to bring his own smartphone or similar device to market, one that could rival Apple's popular devices. He has suggested in the past that while he isn't thrilled with the idea of doing so, he may feel compelled.
"The idea of making a phone makes me want to die. But if we have to make a phone, we will. But we will aspire not to make a phone."
Is SpaceX the ultimate growth stock to own? One of the most compelling reasons to invest in SpaceX despite its high valuation is that it has some tremendous growth opportunities. Not only can its reusable rockets revolutionize space travel, but its Starlink business could make it a big player in the telecom sector. And its biggest opportunities are in artificial intelligence (AI), with the company planning to put data centers into space. SpaceX arguably already has too many places to spend and invest in as it is. A smartphone may be a possibility down the road, but I wouldn't expect that to be a focus for the business at this stage.
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SpaceX has already been incurring billions in losses, and investing in too many different areas at once could prove to be costly and risky. While making risky investments can work for large tech companies with massive resources and strong financials, that strategy may not be as sound for a company such as SpaceX, which still needs to find its way out of the red.
SpaceX may be an exciting stock to own, but it's also a highly risky one, and there are arguably far better growth stocks out there for investors that offer a better mix of growth and safety.
To say Tesla has been a solid investment might be the understatement of the century. A $10,000 purchase during Tesla's initial public offering would be worth roughly $2.57 million now.
TSLA data by YCharts.
It's also fair to say that some investors might not want to take on the added risk from Tesla as it drives toward a future that includes humanoid robots, driverless vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI). It's not the same electric vehicle (EV) maker it once was, for better or worse.
If that business transition has you reconsidering your investment options, there's another automaker -- arguably the best auto stock out there -- named Ferrari (RACE 0.98%) that warrants your attention. Here are three reasons to consider it if Tesla is no longer an investment you're comfortable with.
1. Money, money, money! Ferrari has long separated itself from the traditional automotive industry investment thesis. The industry is known for being capital intensive, cyclical, and for having thin margins. As you can see in the graphic below, Ferrari's margins for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) dwarf the mainstream automotive industry.
RACE EBITDA Margin (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.
Ferrari's gross profit margins routinely check in above 50%, and often Wall Street values and views the automaker as a luxury goods stock. That's more than fair considering that Ferrari's pricing power and brand image enable it to deliberately limit production to drive scarcity and exclusivity. The result is that Ferrari simply doesn't need discounts or incentives to sell vehicles, and that means more money flows to the bottom line.
That's an important topic for Tesla investors because the company still operates in the mainstream automotive business, where discounts, price wars, and other factors can easily hinder margins. Not only does Ferrari generate much higher margins at any level you choose to look, but those margins are much more stable than Tesla's and consistently rising.
This is a good segue into what drives Ferrari's margins.
2. "One fewer car ..." Another way Tesla can't match Ferrari is in the latter's brand image and pricing power, which help drive the previously mentioned lofty margins. Enzo Ferrari's famous mantra was to build "one fewer car than the market demands."
It's a simple concept that few can pull off, but Ferrari does it famously. While Tesla hopes to produce millions of vehicles for a mass market, the Italian automaker produces under 15,000 units a year, creating exclusivity and an emotional draw. It's why Ferrari is a lifestyle luxury brand, not a traditional automaker.
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Here's an example of how powerful the brand already is: The company spends nothing on advertising, essentially. Instead, the Scuderia Ferrari Formula 1 team is the engine that powers its marketing and reach. It's not all show and no-go, either, because racing technology filters down into its high-end models, helping support their sky-high price tags.
Ferrari's F80 drove a near $4 million price tag. Image source: Ferrari.
Another example of how different Tesla and Ferrari are is that the former still needs to fuel demand through price cuts at times, or with other incentives such as financing. Ferrari, on the other hand, won't even let you buy its limited-edition top-tier supercars unless you have already purchased its other vehicles in the past.
Buying a Ferrari takes a lot of money, but it's not all about that -- the company has to invite you into the club. These factors, among many more, make its brand and the pricing power nearly unmatched.
3. A different consumer base Many investors throw around the phrase "Ferrari is recession-proof," but to be fair, it's closer to "recession-resilient." Its buyers have ultra-high net worths and are thus highly insulated from traditional economic downturns, inflation, or moves in interest rates. They can afford multimillion-dollar hypercars even amid a global recession, and they give the company a much more stable business that avoids the auto industry's historical cyclicity.
The loyalty that the brand generates is as intriguing as anything else the company does. It even ranks its customers based on how many cars they currently own, how long they've owned them, and their participation in official Ferrari brand events. In return, only the most loyal multicar owners are invited to purchase extremely exclusive models, which are highly priced and sell out even before being publicly announced.
What it all means Ferrari is just a different animal, and while it shares the industry with mainstream automakers, they really operate in different worlds. It's evident in the company's lucrative margins that continue to rise, its powerful global brand and prestige that support extreme pricing without any discounts and incentives, and its supremely loyal consumer base.
Those are all things Tesla wants to generate one day, but right now, Ferrari is an excellent investment if you want to buy Tesla but are unsure about its future direction.
Don't call it a comeback. Tesla (TSLA +0.39%) just posted its strongest second quarter ever. The company delivered an incredible 480,126 vehicles in that time frame, a 25% jump from last year and a 34% increase from the first quarter of this year.
Deliveries far exceeded expectations. Tesla itself only expected roughly 406,000. Model 3 and Model Y led the charge, accounting for more than 467,000 deliveries.
One notable insight is that this is the first quarter since sales peaked in 2023 in which Tesla has reported year-over-year delivery growth.
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Tesla needed this strong quarter, as it is still trying to recover from both backlash against CEO Elon Musk and the loss of the federal EV tax credit. Tesla also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of storage products, a substantial increase from 9.6 GWh in the year-ago period.
What a good quarter means for investors One good quarter doesn't necessarily mean the struggles for EV manufacturers are over. Tesla has endured two sluggish years, and competition has only increased. EV demand in the U.S. is also muted. Global brands such as BYD and, domestically, Rivian and legacy automakers could eat into Tesla's market share both at home and abroad.
The strong quarter was partly driven by discounting, which suggests more quarters are needed to see whether this rebound will stick. Tesla also still bears the risk of Musk's reputation, which is a consideration if the colorful CEO decides to split his focus further or wade into various controversies.
Image source: The White House.
The real bull case is beyond cars In the long term, Tesla will need more than just its cars, which is why the company's energy storage division is so crucial. Tesla is focusing on scaling energy storage deployment, its Supercharger network, self-driving capabilities, and robotics. This diversification supports the bull case that Tesla still has plenty of room to grow.
Tesla's valuation already reflects the broader potential beyond just its automotive sector. The stock is still trading at a premium despite a 12% year-to-date price drop. The company's forward P/E ratio is nearly 180, while the trailing P/E is more than double that at 374.
For me, the most promising part of Tesla's narrative is its participation in the energy storage industry. This market is primed to explode over the next several years. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla's energy storage revenue fell, though the company attributes this to the timing of large deployments. Still, given the longer-term potential and the gradual rebound in EV demand, the company is well-positioned to succeed.
Again, much of Tesla's growth is already baked into the stock with a nearly $1.5 trillion market cap. Investors in Tesla will need patience and a longer time horizon to realize gains attributable to a booming energy industry and a rebounding EV market.
Tesla stock traded slightly higher in trading on Tuesday as investors assessed a series of price target increases from Wall Street analysts ahead of the electric vehicle maker's second-quarter earnings report later this month.
TSLA stock rose 0.14% to $395.30 in the session, while the S&P 500 gained 0.37% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13%.
The gains followed updated forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Wells Fargo after Tesla reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter vehicle deliveries.
Analysts lift price targets but maintain ratingsMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco increased his price target on Tesla to $417 from $415 while maintaining a Hold rating.
The analyst expects Tesla's stronger second-quarter deliveries to support quarterly results when the company reports earnings on July 22.
Tesla delivered about 480,000 vehicles during the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier and well above Wall Street's expectation of 406,000 deliveries.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy also raised his price target to $370 from $360 while keeping a Hold rating on the shares.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, one of Tesla's more bearish analysts, increased his target price to $130 from $125 while maintaining a Sell rating.
Langan said stronger deliveries could help Tesla post better-than-expected quarterly earnings but noted that higher costs for memory chips, copper and lithium could pressure profitability.
Despite the target price revisions, none of the analysts changed their overall investment recommendations.
Investors remain focused on Tesla's AI strategyWhile analysts adjusted their earnings expectations, investors continue to focus more on Tesla's artificial intelligence ambitions than on near-term financial performance.
The market is looking for updates on the commercialization of AI-powered humanoid robots and further expansion of Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi business rather than simply a quarterly earnings beat.
Tesla's AI initiatives are viewed as a key reason the company continues to trade at a valuation more commonly associated with technology companies than traditional automakers.
The company currently carries a market value of about $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis, compared with approximately $250 billion for Toyota Motor, the world's second-most valuable automaker.
Christopher Tsai, president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, argued that investors should evaluate companies based on their long-term value creation rather than near-term earnings.
He said in a MarketWatch interview, “If you look at SpaceX and say, ‘Oh, it’s selling at a crazy multiple,’ you might be making the classical error that these companies are increasingly investing so much now, depressing earnings now, to create more value later.”
Tsai added, “What you really should be thinking about is what’s the base-case scenario, what’s the bear case and what’s the bull case in say, five years. Based on that, you know, and this is how we think about it.”
He also highlighted Tesla's investment in technologies such as Dojo AI and Full Self Driving, saying, “These are really the companies at the forefront, and they’re going to create, in our opinion, so much value, and people are missing that because they’re just focused on the near term.”
At the same time, Tsai acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding AI investments.
He said, “The way we’re approaching this is to first be extremely selective as to what kinds of businesses we’re investing in. And to recognize the probability of success is low.”
Zipline is growing its drone delivery business in the U.S. and has hired former Tesla, Uber Eats and Waymo executives to help it scale up in new markets. The company is now making one drone delivery every thirty seconds, and has surpassed 2.5 million commercial deliveries to-date.
Tesla (TSLA +0.43%) and Meta Platforms (META +0.11%) are two of the stock market's largest technology companies, with similar-sized market caps of roughly $1.5 trillion and $1.7 trillion, respectively. Their high-profile CEOs, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, make both companies must-watch stories, especially as they stake their futures on artificial intelligence (AI).
That's where the similarities end. For Tesla, AI is the key to unlocking ambitious growth potential in autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics. Meta is fusing AI into its DNA and building sprawling AI data centers. But right now, the key difference between these companies lies in the underlying businesses that drive them.
Here's why investors should opt for Meta Platforms over Tesla right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tesla's transformation has a long road ahead Elon Musk is building Tesla around self-driving vehicles and humanoid robotics. Tesla launched Robotaxi, a ride-hailing service with self-driving vehicles, last year. The company is also developing Optimus, a humanoid robot that can serve as a robotic worker for enterprises and consumers. Musk believes that these two businesses can turn Tesla into a $25 trillion company and recently discontinued the Model S and Model X electric vehicles to focus on those goals.
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However, Robotaxi is only operating in a few cities, and Optimus might not even go on sale until the end of next year. It might take years for Robotaxi and Optimus to make a significant difference for Tesla, which still relies on EV sales for most of its revenue. Automotive manufacturing is a capital-intensive, low-margin business. As a result, Tesla trades at an eye-popping 190 times its 2026 earnings estimates.
Meta's AI tailwinds are already palpable Social media giant Meta Platforms makes its money from advertising to the 3.56 billion people who use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads each day. Meta is using AI to automate and optimize ads, and is enjoying tangible benefits. Meta's constant-currency revenue growth accelerated to 29% in the first quarter, up from 19% in the first quarter of 2025.
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Zuckerberg has outlined plans to continue building data centers for years to come. Meta is guiding for capital expenditures of up to $145 billion this year alone. The company could begin selling data center capacity to help monetize these investments, but that's an entirely new market for Meta, and the pressure will remain to justify this spending. The concerns have dragged on the stock, which currently trades at 20 times 2026 earnings estimates.
A better business today, and at a much better valuation Ultimately, Meta has a much higher floor than Tesla. If Mark Zuckerberg is right about Meta's AI plans, those investments could generate earnings for the foreseeable future. If things don't work out and Meta has to abandon that plan, investors still have a remarkably profitable and growing core business that should continue to drive earnings growth and spit out cash.
Investors might be waiting a while for Tesla to realize its potential and justify that high valuation. There's no guarantee that Tesla ever will, and the remaining core business just isn't nearly as compelling. That makes it difficult to justify buying Tesla over Meta at their respective valuations.
Until Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) merges with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction), Elon Musk fans are going to have a tough choice when it comes to which name is worth topping up at any given moment.
Tesla looks positioned to reward buyers heading into its July 22 earnings release. The setup is clear: Margins are expanding, cash is compounding and options desks are already positioned long into the earnings report.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) traded around $393.98 on July 13, still 10% below where it began the year. That discount, sitting on top of a fundamentally stronger operating base, is the trade.
The Margin Reset Is Real Q1 delivered a 17.78% EPS beat on $22.387 billion in revenue, up 15.78% year over year. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Operating income jumped 135.84% to $941 million, free cash flow surged 117.47% to $1.444 billion, and cash on hand climbed to $44.743 billion (+173.62% YoY). This is the operational foundation walking into July 22.
Software Is Now a Real P&L Line Services and Other revenue grew 42% YoY to $3.745 billion, driven by 1.28 million active FSD subscriptions, up 51% YoY. Unsupervised Robotaxi rides launched in Dallas and Houston, Cybercab entered pilot production at Gigafactory Texas, and Semi, Megapack 3 and Cybercab all remain on schedule for volume production in 2026.
Optimus lines at Fremont and Gigafactory Texas are designed for 10 million robots per year of capacity. High-margin software and AI are absorbing the delivery softness, and July 22 is where management gets to show it.
Positioning Is Already Bullish The full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.48. The July 17 expiration carries 414,976 calls of open interest versus 306,986 puts, and post-earnings July 24 call OI (50,530) still exceeds puts (37,575). Polymarket’s crowd, with a 75.2% accuracy rate on TSLA markets, prices an 87.5% probability of an up close today. Analyst consensus target is $424.01 with 23 Buy ratings.
Tesla Wins The Head-To-Head Look at the alternatives. Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) has never posted positive operating income; Tesla just generated $3.937 billion of operating cash flow in a single quarter, dwarfing Rivian’s entire market capitalization. Lucid (NADAQ:LCID) burns cash at a rate that makes its sub-$5 billion market cap a rounding error against Tesla’s $44.743 billion cash pile. Tesla stands alone with an FSD subscription base, a Robotaxi network and a humanoid roadmap. If you want exposure to autonomy, energy storage, and AI-adjacent hardware in one ticker, Tesla is the only US-listed vehicle.
The 12.38% YTD drawdown is your entry. The 21.1% automotive gross margin, 42% services growth, and 2026 volume-production catalysts are the thesis. The window before July 22 is where the setup matters most.
HomeMarketsNeed to KnowNeed to KnowChristopher Tsai says investors are missing out by not focusing on future earningsJuly 14, 2026, 7:08 a.m. ET
Investors might be overlooking SpaceX's value potential, says one money manager. Photo: Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesCharles Schwab strategists recently warned investors against putting their money into companies making growth promises that push out far into the future.
But successful value investing requires precisely that faith, according to the president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, Christopher Tsai. “If you look at SpaceX and say, ‘Oh, it’s selling at a crazy multiple,’ you might be making the classical error that these companies are increasingly investing so much now, depressing earnings now, to create more value later,” he told MarketWatch in a Monday interview.
Tesla’s Bullish Structure Faces an Earnings Test Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings next Wednesday, July 22, after the market closes. What do the charts for TSLA suggest about the trend and key support and resistance levels? Starting with the weekly chart, the uptrend line was recently validated with a fourth touch and a successful test of support.
A higher swing low of $368.60 was the result, further confirming the bullish trend structure of higher swing lows. Moreover, the level is now a key support level based on trend structure. This makes the $368.60 level an important area to monitor, as a successful hold would preserve the broader uptrend.
TSLA weekly chart shows rising trend channel intact. Source: TradingView A drop below that level would signal a reversal of the uptrend and confirm a break below dynamic support at the uptrend line. That could lead to further selling and signs of weakness. The 100-week moving average near $358.66 and rising helps define dynamic support along with the uptrend line. Price was clearly rejected to the upside near that average during the formation of a higher swing low of $337.24 in April. Therefore, it could mark strong support again. A failure of this support zone would weaken the bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
Breakout Attempt Awaits Confirmation TSLA has attempted to sustain a long-term bullish breakout above the top of a large basing pattern several times since December 2024. The original top of the base at $414.50 was broken to the upside for a third attempt in May of this year before a lower swing high was established at $453.40, leading to a retracement of the prior upswing.
TSLA daily chart shows potential completion of pullback. Source: TradingView Resistance Level Holds the Key to Renewed Momentum Given the sustained rising trend channel structure, an eventual resolution is likely to be to the upside unless key support levels are broken. A recent lower swing high of $432.86 marks a key trend structure level, as a sustained rally above that level will signal a reversal of the short-term decline and a breakout above the downtrend line. Those signs of strength would indicate a likely continuation of the developing bullish trend. Until then, TSLA remains in a consolidation phase within the broader uptrend, with support holding the key to maintaining the bullish outlook.
If you’d like to know more about technical analysis and how traders use it, please visit our educational area.
Key Takeaways Tesla stock historically moves in cycles of innovation.A new suite of multi-decade catalysts looms. As the AI boom roars, Tesla Energy will cash in. Catalysts: The Spark that Unleashes Large Stock AdvancesStocks don’t move because they are “cheap” or they have done well in the past. Instead, stocks move on new information and expectations about the future, prompting Wall Street investors to reassess their value. The most common catalysts come in the form of earnings beat or bullish forward guidance that exceeds Wall Street expectations. However, often the most potent catalysts come in the form of a new, innovative product announcement. For instance, Apple ((AAPL - Free Report) ) announced the iPhone in January 2007. By the time the product was released in June 2007, Apple shares had already gained 50% as investors correctly began to discount the bullish impact the breakthrough product would have on the company’s earnings.
Elon Musk: This Generation’s DisruptorTesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ), under the direction of CEO Elon Musk, is the perfect example of a disruptive growth stock. Through bold risk-taking, vision, and engineering, Elon Musk transformed Tesla from an obscure electric vehicle startup into the largest automaker in the world (by market cap). Challenging an industry that had not seen a successful startup in more than a century wasn’t a walk in the park. Musk innovated at every step of the way, leveraging his Silicon Valley background and producing never-before-seen technology that reached far beyond EVs. Here is a list of the game-changing products Elon Musk has unveiled since 2006:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla Stock Performance Hasn’t Been in a Straight LineFor Elon Musk, the success hasn’t come in a straight line. Throughout Tesla’s 16-year history as a public company, Tesla and Elon Musk have faced SEC lawsuits, political backlash, a plethora of short sellers, and constant doubt (which continues today). That said, any unbiased investor must acknowledge the blatant success before them. Since going public, Tesla’s stock performance has been breathtaking. TSLA shares have gained ground in 14 of the 16 years it’s been public, accumulating monster gains of some 36,000% along the way.
Although Tesla’s long-term performance is undeniable, its intermediate-term performance has been lackluster. TSLA shares are essentially where they were in late 2021 amid slowed growth, shrinking margins, expired tax credits, and Elon Musk’s political controversies. Before investors write off Tesla as a “has-been”, it’s worth studying its history. The current lackluster price action is not the first time investors have faced a frustrating multi-year price consolidation. Tesla shares were dead money from the mid-2010 IPO until 2013 as the company struggled to become profitable, gain investor attention, and prove the EV concept. Next, from ~2014 to ~2020, Tesla shares were essentially flat as some investors took chips off the table after the massive IPO move. What investors must understand is that long, frustrating share price consolidations are the norm for Tesla. In other words, Tesla has always been a stock that delivers massive gains in bursts before consolidating. Investors should also understand that these consolidations serve a purpose. Frustrating stock returns breed fear, uncertainty, and doubt. That said, Elon Musk and his team never stop innovating.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Latest Delivery Numbers ImpressTesla's latest delivery numbers confirm that the EV maker has officially turned around its legacy business. The 480,000 global vehicle deliveries mark the best Q2 ever. What makes the delivery number even more impressive is that Tesla beat expectations and surpassed its prior quarter results despite the end of the EV tax credit last year. Better yet, Europe, which has been an especially sore spot for Tesla EV sales, has turned the corner. Tesla registrations rose in several European markets in June
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wall Street Warms Up to OptimusAccording to a recent research report from Nomura, Tesla has raised the annualized production capacity target for its Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot at the Fremont plant to roughly 70,000 units, using factory space repurposed from older vehicle assembly lines. Looking ahead, Tesla plans to add another 70,000 units of capacity at its Austin facility by 2028. These near-term expansions are laying the groundwork for a highly ambitious, long-term capacity target of 1.5 million units. The Optimus timeline is bullish for Tesla. CEO Elon Musk has long predicted that Optimus will eventually become the company’s best-selling product.
Tesla Robotaxi is ScalingAfter many delays, Tesla’s highly anticipated robotaxi business is finally beginning to scale. Initially launched in Austin in 2025 with safety supervisors, Tesla has officially crossed the milestone of deploying unsupervised robotaxis (no driver or safety monitor inside the vehicle). Recently, Tesla has expanded to other markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Miami. Meanwhile, Tesla’s low-cost Cybercab has been spotted in public testing. Because of its unique “unboxed” manufacturing process, Tesla expects to efficiently scale Cybercab to millions of units. The Cybercab will give Tesla a huge cost advantage over competitors like Waymo.
Long-time Tesla investor and bull Cathie Wood believes that robotaxis will be “Elon’s gift to patient Tesla shareholders.” Wood expects the autonomous taxi market to scale from $1B today to $10T over the next 5-10 years. Additionally, Wood expects that Tesla’s costs will be 50% lower than Waymo’s by the end of the decade.
FSD to Have Wider Reach, Generate More RevenueElon Musk just announced that after a complex transition, vehicles built between 2019 and 2023 will be able to access Tesla’s modern Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. In other words, if you drive an older Tesla, your car will continue to get “smarter” via optimized “Lite” neural networks for supervised driving. This will allow Tesla to capture previously unrealized FSD subscription revenue from its older models. Even before this news, Tesla FSD was scaling nicely:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla Energy is on FireMcKinsey predicts that U.S. electricity demand will soar by ~50% by 2050. Although solar energy production requires higher start-up capital than coal, it is zero-emission, and long-term generation costs are far lower. The latest energy production data tells the story. Solar energy accounted for 12.8% of U.S. electricity in May, surpassing coal (12.2%) for the first time in history. While low-cost natural gas remains the dominant electricity source (~37%), solar is catching up. In fact, solar and battery storage accounted for a staggering 91% of U.S. power capacity installed in Q1 2026. In other words, Tesla’s red-hot energy business has a long runway that is just gaining momentum.
Image Source: Ember
Elon Musk Announces TeraFab ProjectElon Musk unveiled TeraFab in March 2026, a joint initiative between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI aimed at producing advanced semiconductor chips at an unprecedented scale. The project involves a planned $20 billion factory in Austin, Texas, designed to supply chips for Tesla vehicles and SpaceX orbital data centers. Recently, Tesla announced its first big hire for its TeraFab project, Gary Jiang. Jiang is a semiconductor manufacturing legend who spent 18 years at Intel ((INTC - Free Report) ). The Jiang hire is another example of how Tesla is building a flurry of potential new non-EV businesses that could help drive the stock for decades to come.
Bottom Line
While Tesla’s price action has been lackluster lately, history proves that these frustrating lulls are often the quiet before the storm. The latest delivery numbers prove that Tesla’s EV business has turned the corner. Meanwhile, a plethora of upcoming catalysts set up the next bull run.
In the latest trading session, Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) closed at $394.76, marking a -3.19% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.79%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.26%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 1.55%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the electric car maker had gained 0.33% lagged the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.28%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Tesla in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on July 22, 2026. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $0.47, indicating a 17.5% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $24.73 billion, up 9.95% from the prior-year quarter.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $2.11 per share and a revenue of $102.02 billion, signifying shifts of +27.11% and +7.59%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Tesla. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 9.51% higher. Tesla is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at its valuation, Tesla is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 193.31. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.31.
One should further note that TSLA currently holds a PEG ratio of 9.18. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. Automotive - Domestic stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.99 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 69, placing it within the top 29% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Following SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, Wall Street's attention has shifted to the next big play — a rumored Tesla-SpaceX megamerger. With both companies increasingly sharing engineers and resources, a deal might be a question of when, not if.
Tesla stock TSLA fell more than 3% on Monday as investors continued to wait for further progress in the company's artificial intelligence initiatives.
The electric-vehicle maker's stock traded at $393.56 during Monday's session.
The broader market also came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 132 points, or 0.3%.
Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving.”
Tesla investors have increasingly focused on the company's artificial intelligence strategy, particularly the rollout of its autonomous robotaxi service and the commercialization of its Optimus humanoid robot.
The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. While the launch generated significant attention, the expansion has progressed gradually.
The service now operates in several cities but remains substantially smaller than Alphabet's Waymo.
Tesla has yet to begin commercial sales of Optimus, although it is preparing manufacturing capacity for the humanoid robot.
On Friday, the company released a video showing the decommissioning of the Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California, facility.
According to Tesla, the process of removing tooling and infrastructure took less than 50 days, allowing the factory to prepare for Optimus production while continuing to manufacture Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
Tesla announced in January that it would discontinue production of the Model S and Model X to repurpose manufacturing capacity for robots. Chief Executive Elon Musk has described humanoid robots as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
Despite those plans, investors continue to await updates on the latest version of Optimus as competing robotics companies.
Tesla is expected to provide additional updates on Optimus when it reports second-quarter earnings on July 22.
Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $375 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company's stronger-than-expected second-quarter automotive deliveries.
Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, including 467,800 Model 3 and Model Y units, exceeding the consensus estimate of around 410,000 vehicles.
Following the delivery results, Jefferies increased its second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes estimate to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin.
The firm also increased its automotive revenue forecast to $21 billion, including $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million in leasing revenue.
Jefferies expects total group revenue of $28.7 billion and group EBIT of $1.45 billion for the quarter.
Earlier this month, RBC Capital raised its price target on Tesla to $500 from $475, incorporating a premium tied to a potential merger with SpaceX while also updating its standalone valuation for the automaker.
Analyst Tom Narayan said the revised target reflects "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports."
According to RBC, the most likely transaction structure would involve an all-stock acquisition in which SpaceX acquires Tesla at a 20% to 30% premium.
The firm said the rationale centers on operational collaboration, including proprietary chip manufacturing, Megapacks for data center energy requirements, and joint AI training and fleet management services.
RBC also said Tesla shareholders would likely require a premium because Musk "would control 50%+ of a combined entity, well above the ~20% stake he currently holds in Tesla."
Excluding any potential SpaceX acquisition premium, RBC valued Tesla at $435 per share.
Within that valuation, Narayan increased the firm's robotaxi segment valuation by 20%, citing a higher forecast for the global robotaxi fleet and describing the business as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.
SpaceX Bear Stays BearishNoble has described himself as one of the biggest bears on the SpaceX IPO. Weeks after the company’s public debut, he remains firmly bearish.
"SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today’s price are about to start selling their shares to you," he wrote in a recent Substack post.
Noble highlights the fact that SpaceX has never turned a profit in its history and lost around $5 billion last year.
"At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x," he wrote. "Shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print."
‘Biggest Misallocation’Noble, who previously ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund, said he has watched every disaster since being Lynch’s auto analyst in 1981.
"I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative."
The investor emphasized SpaceX’s lack of profits and its limited initial float, which helped fuel demand from investors drawn to the company’s well-known name.
When it comes to hype, Noble can’t help but compare SpaceX to another Elon-Musk led company, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).
"Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it."
SpaceX Stock Hits New LowsOn Monday, SpaceX stock hit new lows since going public, with shares trading as low as $137.68.
The stock was priced at $135 at the IPO before opening for trade at $150. Investors who bought in at the IPO are still profitable, but potentially not for long.
Other investors who bought in after shares went public are now down on their investment unless they were able to sell in the first days of the space stock being public.
Analysts have come out with price targets on SpaceX stock with many pointing to the potential long-term valuation and high addressable markets for the company.
Others like Noble have been quick to point out the lack of profits and financials to justify the large share price and multiples. A lack of profits could keep SpaceX from being in the S&P 500 for years, with the index not changing its rules to include the stock.
Image via Shutterstock
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SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered 480,126 vehicles, exceeding consensus by 18%, while deliveries outpaced production, signaling healthy inventory reduction ahead of earnings.Consecutive EPS surprises, including a 17.15% Q1 beat, alongside consistent revenue outperformance have strengthened confidence in Tesla's near-term fundamentals.Analysts continue raising TSLA forecasts, with Q2 EPS estimates up 8.89% and revenue expectations climbing 4.8% over the past month.Consensus projects newer vehicle deliveries to surge 546% by FY30, supporting a higher-margin product mix beyond the mature Model 3/Y lineup.Robotaxi expansion, regulatory scrutiny, and widely dispersed earnings estimates remain key TSLA risks that could challenge Tesla's long-term valuation assumptions. LPETTET/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Investment Thesis The market has finally started to catch up with what has been happening at Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). While it was skeptical about the stock during the last few months due to
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
The recent public offering of Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX, has given Elon Musk fans another investment option to consider, as Tesla (TSLA 3.04%) now has to share the spotlight. And at a market cap of around $1.5 trillion, it is firmly behind the rocket company, whose valuation was north of $1.9 trillion as of the end of last week.
Tesla's stock is down close to 10% for the year, and a big test for it could be how it does in its upcoming earnings report. Its latest quarterly earnings numbers are set to come out on July 22. Could they give the stock the boost that it desperately needs? Here's what I think will happen.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company is likely to show some decent growth on both top and bottom lines When Tesla last reported earnings, its growth rate was impressive at 16%. The company has reduced prices as it looks to fend off competition, and its revenue totaled $22.4 billion during the first three months of the year, versus $19.3 billion a year ago. Earnings were up by 17%, but they weren't as strong as they had been in prior years.
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Ultimately, I expect a similar story to play out in the second quarter, particularly with Tesla recently reporting stronger-than-expected delivery numbers. Growth is likely to be high and better than expected. And with the company going up against soft earnings numbers, it may very well produce some strong results on the bottom line as well. All in all, the results may look strong.
Why Tesla's stock may still be destined to fall In recent years, it's been more common to see Tesla's stock fall after earnings rather than for it to skyrocket.
TSLA data by YCharts
It's not just about how the company has performed over the past quarter, but also about its guidance and outlook for the future. What complicates things now is that Musk fans have another option: SpaceX. If Tesla's outlook doesn't look as promising, which may very well be the case, as it isn't in the business of making rockets or investing heavily in artificial intelligence, it may simply fall out of favor with investors.
The lack of excitement around Tesla's recent delivery numbers may very well be proof of that. And that's also why I believe even though the company may have some decent numbers in Q2, that may not be enough to get investors excited about a stock that trades at nearly 400 times its trailing earnings.
Tesla continues to be an overvalued stock, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall after it reports its latest numbers, as expectations are likely to be high.
Now that Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) trades publicly, Wall Street has started hunting for the next best thing: stocks that can ride its coattails. The most eye-catching call came from J.P. Morgan, whose analysts described a possible combination of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA +0.22%) as "strategically coherent on paper." That single phrase has revived a long-running fantasy among investors, and it's worth understanding what the analyst company actually means before treating any of these names as a back door into SpaceX.
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Why J.P. Morgan sees logic in a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up J.P. Morgan's argument is that Musk's companies already share engineering talent, an artificial intelligence ambition, and a common leader, so uniting them could let him run one integrated vision across cars, robots, energy, and space. The analysts also noted that SpaceX's blockbuster public debut gives Musk valuable stock to make a deal, and that his growing voting control at Tesla makes him better positioned to push one through.
Image source: Getty Images.
J.P. Morgan was careful, though, and so am I. It flagged real obstacles: securing regulatory approvals across many countries, especially China, where Tesla builds cars; the awkward gap between Musk's near-total control of SpaceX and his smaller stake in Tesla; and the likelihood that any deal would look like SpaceX swallowing Tesla rather than a merger of equals.
"Coherent on paper" is a long way from "likely to happen."
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The other SpaceX-by-association plays Tesla isn't the only name catching the halo. Deutsche Bank started coverage of EchoStar (ECHO 2.00%) with a buy rating, framing it as a cheaper way to own SpaceX. EchoStar holds roughly $11 billion of SpaceX shares it received for handing over wireless spectrum, so the bank argues you're effectively buying SpaceX at a discount and getting EchoStar's other assets thrown in. The catch is serious: EchoStar's pay-TV subsidiary recently filed for bankruptcy, and the stock has tumbled.
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Then there's Charter Communications (CHTR 2.64%), which, according to Bloomberg, has held talks with SpaceX about a consumer mobile phone service that would route some traffic through Charter's network. It's a genuine strategic fit, but it's only talk for now.
Here's my honest read. Buying a stock because it's linked to a hot company is a strategy built on hope, not fundamentals, and all three of these names are down this year for reasons of their own. A merger that's merely "coherent on paper," a spectrum stake wrapped around a bankruptcy, and a rumored partnership are not the same as durable businesses. If you like Tesla, EchoStar, or Charter, buy them for what they do today, and treat any SpaceX connection as a bonus rather than the thesis.
Over the past decade, Tesla (TSLA +0.22%) and Meta Platforms (META +6.16%) have delivered market-beating returns. But some may argue that there is little upside left for either stock. Tesla and Meta have underperformed broader equities this year, and as they invest heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), we may see their margins compressing, leading to even worse stock market performances, or so the argument goes. However, despite this potential problem, there are good reasons to think Tesla and Meta Platforms have significant long-term upside. Read on to find out more.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
1. Tesla Tesla is a somewhat risky stock. The company's core electric vehicle (EV) business is facing more competition in the U.S., with Rivian recently launching an alternative to its best-selling Model Y. China-based automakers are also making significant strides abroad. Meanwhile, Tesla is trading at 178.6x forward earnings. The stock could contract over the next few years if it fails to make progress where it matters most. And the market is no longer primarily focused on Tesla's EV segment. Instead, investors and analysts are paying close attention to the company's robotaxi service that could transform its business.
A successful robotaxi operation would increase high-margin revenue from ride-fee charges. These could be fairly substantial across the company's entire fleet. Instead of sitting idle for most of the day, Tesla's EVs could be active for significant portions of a 24-hour period and would only need "rest" when charging, for maintenance purposes, or while waiting for customers to order rides. At scale, we could be talking about hundreds of thousands, or perhaps even millions of rides per day. Given this potential opportunity, it's not surprising that many investors are excited about Tesla's future. The company's shares recently jumped after it announced it would launch robotaxis in Miami.
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But there is even more to Tesla's business. The EV maker is also working on the next-gen version of its humanoid robot, Optimus 3. Dominating this market could be yet another massive opportunity for Tesla, as humanoid robots capable of performing many tasks as well as humans could see significant demand from individual consumers and especially corporations looking to replace some of their workforce. Tesla will certainly add high-margin revenue streams to its robots, including remote software updates, subscriptions, and premium capabilities.
Tesla's shares could soar over the next decade if its robotaxi and humanoid robotics ambitions materialize. However, there is plenty of downside risk as well, including the possibility that the company fails to gain a foothold in the robotaxi industry due to competition or regulatory setbacks, among other risks. It's important to keep that in mind and invest accordingly.
2. Meta Platforms Meta Platforms' advertising business is performing well. It has even improved in recent quarters thanks to artificial intelligence (AI). The company's short-form video platforms on Facebook and Instagram, coupled with AI-powered algorithms that keep users glued to their screens, have helped boost engagement across its websites and apps, leading to higher ad demand. In the first quarter, the company's revenue increased by 33% year over year to $56.3 billion. Its earnings per share came in at $10.44, 62% higher than the year-ago period.
So, although many fear that Meta Platforms' AI-related spending won't pay off, it is already doing so. And there is more where that came from. According to reports, the social media giant is exploring launching a cloud computing business. The company could sell excess AI computing capacity to other corporations. This could be a game changer for Meta Platforms. Several companies are seeing strong success within this niche, and it should expand significantly over the medium term, along with AI infrastructure spending.
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Meanwhile, Meta Platforms has significant strengths that could drive improved financial results. The company ended the first quarter with 3.56 billion daily active users. This vast ecosystem can enable the company to successfully launch new monetization opportunities, as it has in the past. Meta's Threads, a competitor to X (formerly Twitter), has grown rapidly and is on track to become the leader in its category, according to management. Meta Platforms' WhatsApp paid messaging and subscription services still make up a tiny portion of its revenue, but they are growing at a good clip.
Meta's robust core business and strong competitive advantage from its brand name and network effects make the stock attractive, and the company's growth path beyond advertising could transform the business and send its share price soaring.
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The first phase of the artificial intelligence boom rewarded the companies building the digital infrastructure. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions of dollars expanding data centers to power the next generation of AI services.
That investment cycle isn’t over, but the market’s attention is beginning to shift toward the businesses turning that computing power into products consumers actually use. Few companies are better positioned for that transition than Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction), which combines an AI application with something few competitors can match — its own computing infrastructure.
Tesla Controls More of the AI Stack Most AI application companies operate as tenants. They rent computing power from cloud providers, pay for inference every time an AI model runs, and accept lower margins as usage expands.
Tesla has taken a different path. It has invested billions of dollars building its own AI training infrastructure, including its Cortex supercomputer and custom Dojo hardware. It also designs its own Full Self-Driving chips that power vehicles already on the road. That gives Tesla unusual vertical integration.
Instead of relying entirely on outside cloud providers, the company owns more of the technology stack — from silicon and data collection to model training and the finished consumer product. In plain English, every layer Tesla controls is one less layer where profits can leak to someone else.
That infrastructure advantage becomes even more important when you look at where Tesla plans to monetize its AI investment: robotaxis. Unlike most competitors in autonomous ride-hailing, Tesla isn’t just developing the software — it also controls the hardware and much of the computing infrastructure behind it.
Let’s compare that approach.
Company AI Application Owns the Infrastructure Vehicle Manufacturing Tesla Robotaxi, FSD Yes Yes Waymo Robotaxi No No Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) Ride-hailing No No That combination makes Tesla resemble a scaled-down hyperscaler rather than a traditional software company.
Texas Could Change the Robotaxi Story Robotaxis have spent years trapped between technological progress and regulatory caution. That balance shifted when Texas approved legislation creating a statewide framework for autonomous vehicle operations. The change gives Tesla a larger runway to expand robotaxi deployments instead of navigating a patchwork of local approvals.
The market still values Tesla largely on vehicle deliveries, automotive gross margins, and electric vehicle demand. Those remain important metrics, but they may not capture the economics of a software-driven transportation network.
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Software businesses often generate higher margins because every additional customer requires little incremental cost. If robotaxi adoption accelerates, Tesla could begin layering recurring software revenue on top of vehicles already rolling off its production lines.
Manufacturing Gives Tesla an Edge Tesla’s biggest advantage over rivals like Waymo and Uber isn’t just artificial intelligence. It’s manufacturing.
Waymo must partner with automakers and retrofit existing vehicles with autonomous hardware. Uber depends on outside fleets and third-party drivers. Scaling either model requires coordinating multiple companies.
Tesla starts with millions of vehicles already designed around its technology. New vehicles leave the factory prepared for autonomous capability as the software improves. That production scale lowers deployment friction and could allow Tesla to expand faster than competitors that must build or modify vehicles one fleet at a time.
Granted, regulatory approval remains uneven outside Texas, and fully autonomous driving still faces technical and legal hurdles. Those risks deserve investors’ attention.
Key Takeaway In short, Tesla is becoming more than an automaker. It is building an AI ecosystem that combines proprietary chips, dedicated computing infrastructure, massive real-world driving data, and a consumer application with global reach. Few companies outside the hyperscalers control that much of the value chain.
The market still focuses heavily on quarterly vehicle deliveries. Ultimately, if robotaxis evolve into the first truly mass-market AI application, investors may begin valuing Tesla less like a car company and more like an AI platform with manufacturing capabilities — a combination that remains rare in today’s market.
Meet America's Newest $1b Unicorn (Sponsor) A US startup just passed a $1 billion private valuation, joining billion-dollar private companies like OpenAI and ByteDance. Unlike those other unicorns, you can invest in EnergyX right now; but only until July 16.
Over 50,000 people already have, along with global giants like General Motors and POSCO.
Here's why there's so much interest: EnergyX's patented tech can recover up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods. That's a big deal, as demand for lithium is expected to 5X current production levels by 2040. Become an early-stage EnergyX shareholder before the 7/16 investment deadline.
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Leaderboard Quarterly Scorecard Webinar Q&A Summary For Thursday, July 9, 2026 Tesla faces a new bill in New Jersey that could potentially ban its autonomous vehicles because of the method in which they operate. At the same time, on the other side of the world in China, Elon Musk's car company made slight gains in EV market share, despite a year-over-year decline in retail sales. Amid all this news, Tesla (TSLA)…
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) just posted one of its cleanest quarters in years, and the market shrugged. Tesla grew Q1 2026 revenue 15.78% year over year to $22.387 billion, expanded automotive gross margin by 490 basis points to 21.1%, and grew free cash flow 117%.
Yet shares are down 12.38% year to date at $394.06. The question I want to answer: can Tesla realistically hit $700 by 2031?
Why Tesla Shares Are Stuck Despite Improving Fundamentals Shares are off 7.35% in the past week and 3.64% over the past month, reflecting a real disconnect between fundamentals and price.
The narrative in recent coverage is unforgiving: one bearish note called Tesla “massively overvalued” with vehicle deliveries below 2 million annually and Chinese competition eroding share.
Meta just overtook Tesla in market cap because Tesla’s decline outpaced Meta’s performance. With a beta of 1.802, this is a volatile stock in a market that punishes any hint of demand softness. Inventory ticked up to 27 days from 22. That is the picture today.
Wall Street Sees Modest Upside. I Think They Are Anchored Too Low Analyst consensus sits at $424.01, with 5 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 18 Hold, 4 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell ratings. Our internal model puts the base case at $418.24 (6.14% upside) with 90% confidence, a bull case of $482.09, and a bear case of $369.02 over the next year. Bullish sentiment sits at 49%.
My pushback: analysts are modeling Tesla as an automaker with a robotaxi option. If AI5, Optimus, and unsupervised FSD scale as planned, the earnings base in 2031 looks nothing like the annualized $1.64 run rate today. Consensus is too anchored to the near term.
The Path to $700 Per Share by 2031 Reaching $700 from today’s price of $394.06 would require a gain of 77.6%. That is roughly 12% annualized over five years, close to Tesla’s own bull-case annualized return of 10.86%.
Here is the P/E math. With forward EPS of $1.90, a price of $700 implies a forward P/E of 368x. Our base case of $418.24 already implies 217x, meaning the bold target requires 151x of additional multiple expansion at today’s earnings. That number looks absurd until you realize it is the wrong denominator.
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The bull case rests on EPS compression, not multiple expansion. Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 all hit volume production in 2026. FSD subscriptions grew 51% year over year to 1.28 million. Optimus lines are being installed for 1 million robots per year at Fremont.
Morgan Stanley projects a 30,000-vehicle robotaxi fleet by 2030. If forward EPS compounds toward $10 by 2030, $700 is a 70x multiple on a business growing 25%+. The risk: any material delay in Cybercab or unsupervised FSD scaling collapses the thesis.
Where Tesla Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power At $394.06 against $1.90 forward EPS, Tesla trades at 207x forward earnings. Shares sit between the 52-week high of $498.83 and low of $297.82, closer to the middle.
Over ten years, TSLA has returned 2,626.68%. This stock has repeatedly compressed insane multiples through EPS growth investors thought was impossible.
The Bottom Line on $700 $700 by 2031 requires a 77.6% total gain, or roughly 12% annualized. It is a stretch, but not a fantasy.
Three things need to go right: Cybercab needs to hit meaningful volume by 2028, unsupervised FSD needs regulatory approval in California and Europe, and Optimus needs to become a real revenue line rather than a demo.
A prolonged China share loss or a Cybercab production stumble would derail it. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how Tesla could reach $700 in 2031.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.
McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.
His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.
Tesla, Inc.'s Q2 deliveries rose 25% YoY, FSD subscriptions 51%, and storage deployments 40.6%; it is obvious that the company will beat consensus financial estimates. TSLA's moat is its autonomy-energy stack: driving data, self-funding FSD, $10.15B of Energy RPO, megablock scale, and, if realized, Optimus labor substitution. Tesla is exceptional, but the stock is priced for domination: $1.5T versus $3.9B in trailing profit. Hold and cap at 5% of NAV; returns require vast earnings growth and a lasting premium.
Tesla’s Q2 delivery print reset the narrative. After two straight years of sales declines, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) reported 480,126 deliveries and 451,758 vehicles produced in Q2 2026, blowing past Wall Street expectations. A Tesla-compiled consensus had targeted 406,024 deliveries, while StreetAccount’s average was 406,600. Bloomberg called it a 25% jump from the year-earlier period and the best Q2 performance in company history.
The beat wasn’t a fluke of easy comps. CFRA’s Garrett Nelson was cited by Bloomberg as saying, “This was a much stronger than expected deliveries number, which we think was primarily driven by China and Europe.” Energy storage deployments came in at 13.5 GWh, up over 50% from Q1 2026.
The Market Is Already Looking Past the Cars Despite the beat, Tesla shares fell 7.5% on Thursday July 2, the steepest drop since July 2025, after four straight up days including a roughly 8% advance on Monday. Karobaar Capital CIO Haris Khurshid told Bloomberg: “Once the news actually arrived there just wasn’t as much left to get excited about.”
Shares have since stabilized. TSLA closed at $406.55 on July 9. Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing a 72.5% probability of an up day on July 10, with month-end targets skewing bullish (69% probability of hitting $435 in July).
Physical AI Is the Real Thesis Now Q1 FY26 already showed the operating turn. Revenue grew 15.78% YoY to $22.39 billion, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.41 versus $0.3481 estimated, and automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Operating income surged 135.84%. Active FSD subscriptions climbed 51% YoY to 1.28 million.
July 16 is the Final Day to Tap Into the Lithium Boom (sponsor)
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UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised his TSLA price target to $442 from $364, citing long-term potential in physical AI and robotics. JPMorgan called a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger “strategically coherent”. Polymarket assigns that merger a 24.5% probability by December 31.
This infographic highlights Tesla’s strong Q2 2026 deliveries and Q1 2026 financial turnaround, alongside its strategic focus on physical AI and related market sentiments. It details key performance metrics and future initiatives for the company. What to Watch Into Q2 Earnings Tesla reports Q2 2026 financials after the close Wednesday, July 22, 2026, with the call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. Capex is the story behind the story: Tesla plans to spend more than $25 billion this year, roughly three times last year’s outlay, on Optimus and autonomous Cybercabs, resulting in expected negative cash flow.
Risks remain real. BYD retook the global EV lead with 557,090 units, Cybertruck demand has disappointed, and SpaceX has bought thousands of Cybertrucks since late last year. Still, deliveries confirm the auto franchise is intact, supplying the missing ingredient for the AI story.
Meet America's Newest $1b Unicorn (Sponsor)A US startup just passed a $1 billion private valuation, joining billion-dollar private companies like OpenAI and ByteDance. Unlike those other unicorns, you can invest in EnergyX right now; but only until July 16.
Over 50,000 people already have, along with global giants like General Motors and POSCO.
Here’s why there’s so much interest: EnergyX’s patented tech can recover up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods. That’s a big deal, as demand for lithium is expected to 5X current production levels by 2040.Become an early-stage EnergyX shareholder before the 7/16 investment deadline.
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Why Tesla Stock Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way
In this article
In Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, spend most of the play waiting for a mysterious Godot, who doesn’t arrive.
Order flow analytics examine real-time buying and selling behavior by analyzing volume, timing, and order size across both retail and institutional participants. These insights provide a deeper understanding of price action and market sentiment, allowing traders and institutions to make more informed decisions.
TSLA Performance
At the time of the Power Inflow alert, TSLA was trading at $394.09. Following the signal:
• Intraday High As Of 2:30PM EST: $407.85 (+3.49%)
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The analysis is based on stock order flow data, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Vertiv (VRT +1.74%) may offer a cleaner way to invest in the AI infrastructure boom than Tesla (TSLA +3.06%). One has the bigger long-term vision, but the other is tied directly to the power, cooling, and data center systems needed today. The real question is which stock offers the better setup after both have become major AI infrastructure stories.
*Stock prices used were the market prices of June 30, 2026. The video was published on July 9, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla and Vertiv. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
HomeInvestingETFsOne expert doubts that new ETFs from Subversive will catch on in a meaningful wayJuly 9, 2026, 3:52 p.m. ET
A pair of new ETFs are betting that investors will ditch typical index funds to avoid having exposure to Elon Musk’s companies.
On Wednesday, Subversive ETFs filed to launch two new “Ex-Elon” actively managed exchange-traded funds. Each would exclude companies determined by fund managers to be “founded, controlled or led by” Musk, or which he is “primarily associated” with as a major shareholder or founder. For now, that’s just SpaceX SPCX and Tesla TSLA.
Key features of SFYI-Invests in the 50 most widely held U.S.-listed stocks across SoFi Invest self-directed brokerage accounts.
-Employs an actively managed options strategy, including covered calls and call spreads, to seek monthly income distributions alongside growth potential.
-Offers a lower capital barrier, as investors can access an options-based income strategy through a single ETF instead of owning at least 100 shares required for traditional covered call strategies.
-Provides access to complex options strategies through a convenient ETF structure.
-Applies its options strategy across a diversified portfolio rather than a single stock.
-Builds on the existing SoFi Social 50 ETF (NYSE:SFYF), which tracks the platform’s 50 most widely held stocks.
-Carries a gross expense ratio of 0.73%.
The launch comes as investors increasingly look beyond traditional fixed-income strategies amid an uncertain interest-rate environment and elevated market volatility.
According to SoFi, SFYI simplifies options-based income investing by embedding professionally managed covered calls and call spreads into a single ETF, eliminating the need for investors to build and manage their own options positions.
“Income-seeking investors are being challenged to rethink their traditional playbook,” said Brian Walsh, SoFi’s head of Advice and Planning, adding that the fund is designed to provide exposure to the platform’s most widely held stocks while pursuing monthly income and potential capital appreciation.
Photo: PJ McDonnell / Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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SummaryTesla, Inc. remains my top long-term holding, driven by dominant Q2 deliveries and a robust multi-segment ecosystem.Q2 deliveries hit a record 480,126 vehicles (for any Q2), signaling a turnaround in core EV operations and potential for earnings beats.My Q2 estimates—$28.28B revenue, $0.51 EPS—are near the high end of consensus, with upside if margins outperform.I maintain a 12-month price target for TSLA stock of $550–$600, citing Tesla’s leadership in EVs, FSD, energy, and AI, and other segments, but highlight execution and valuation risks.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Financial Prophet get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » Getty Images
You know, I've been bullish on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) for a long time. In fact, the first time I bought into the stock was back in October 2013, which seems like ages ago. Nonetheless, my investment in Tesla has been
55.82K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am long a diversified portfolio with hedges.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Known as one of the boldest portfolio managers out there, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest likes to swing for the fences with her exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This has led to some years of big gains for her flagship fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK +1.85%). In 2023, it rose 67.6%, and in 2025, it gained 35.5%. It has also resulted in some years with steep losses, like 2022, when it plunged by 67%.
As a rule, Wood invests in companies with disruptive technology, and she's willing to make big bets on those innovators. Let's look at five stocks she was recently buying on the dip.
SpaceX
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Although SpaceX (SPCX +0.58%) had its initial public offering less than a month ago, Wood has already made the stock one of her 10 largest positions, and she has been scooping up more shares as the stock has come down from its early peak. SpaceX is trying to be at the center of disrupting several industries. Among its goals is to deploy a constellation of data center satellites in space, create a giant chip manufacturing facility, and potentially compete with tradition mobile carriers with its Starlink satellite broadband service.
However, the stock trades at a high valuation, and the company will need to overcome numerous technical hurdles to achieve any of these moonshot objectives.
Cerebras
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Cerebras (NASDAQ: CBRS) is another recent arrival to the public market that has pulled back to well below its IPO price, and Wood recently added some shares of the company to a couple of Ark ETFs. Cerebras has an innovative solution for inference that embeds SRAM (static random-access memory) directly onto its chips. This gives the company a superior solution for inference, but it comes at a premium price, as its technology is based on huge, wafer-sized chips -- each about the size of a dinner plate -- that need special cooling and energy-management solutions that need to be sold or rented as complete systems.
Right now, Cerebras is a niche player in the chip space, but it has the potential to upend the inference market. It also has a big deal in place with OpenAI.
Tesla
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392.95
Wood has continued to add to her biggest position, Tesla (TSLA 0.28%). Tesla shares fell despite the electric vehicle (EV) market reporting better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries, led by gains in Europe, as U.S. deliveries remain weak. However, Wood's thesis on Tesla largely centers on the company's robotaxi ambitions, and its rideshare service recently debuted in a second market, Miami.
I remain skeptical of Tesla's robotaxi ambitions. Its autonomous driving solution has safety issues relative to competitors that use lida, and Waymo now has a first-mover advantage. If Tesla's robotaxi or robotics ambitions don't pan out as management has promised, the stock is clearly overvalued based on its core business.
Circle Internet Stablecoin platform Circle Internet (CRCL 1.05%) has been seeing its shares sell off following the news that Open Standard is introducing a rival stablecoin called Open USD, and Wood has been buying the pullback. The stock has lost nearly 70% of its value over the past year, during which time Wood has made it the Ark Innovation ETF's 12th-largest holding.
Circle has strong liquidity and a first-mover advantage that may make it difficult to unseat in this huge market. It's deeply integrated into decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, crypto exchanges, and corporate treasury pilot programs. However, a serious threat could be looming: Big banks are expected to roll out a tokenized deposit network next year through The Clearing House that will introduce blockchain to mainstream finance. Circle will likely continue to dominate as the bridge between crypto networks and finance apps, but it likely won't be able to break into mainstream banking, which could limit the stock's upside.
Image source: Getty Images.
Palantir Another stock Wood has been buying on the dip is Palantir (PLTR 3.88%). The company has been caught in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry sell-off, although its unique position in the AI ecosystem would make it one of AI's biggest long-term winners. The company's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) acts as an AI orchestration layer that helps reduce hallucinations and makes AI more useful for enterprises by gathering all of an organization's data and placing it in an ontology that it then links to real-world processes and objects.
While the stock is not cheap, trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 39 times, the company has been seeing rapid and accelerating revenue growth, including a surge of 85% last quarter. Given how many use cases there could be for AIP across industries, Palantir has the potential to eventually become one of the largest companies in the world.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) is once again eating the financial press, with a $1.58 trillion market cap resting on Cybercab, Optimus, and robotaxi promises that traders keep paying up to own. But here’s what you should actually be watching.
The Hot Ticker Is Selling You a Timeline Strip away the AI narrative and Tesla is an auto manufacturer trading at 381 times trailing earnings, 200 times forward earnings, and a PEG ratio near 6. Its net profit margin sits at 3.95% and return on equity at 4.9%. Those are industrial-company fundamentals wearing a software-company multiple.
The delivery record is worse than the marketing suggests. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 2.93% and net income dropped 46.79%. Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries came in at 418,227 units, down 16% year over year. Q3 2025 EPS missed by 10.35% while operating expenses jumped 50% YoY on AI and R&D. Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 have been described as “on schedule for volume production starting in 2026” in filings going back to Q2 2025. Same promise, new quarter.
Retail is catching on. The most-discussed Reddit thread in the last 30 days asked flatly: “People buying Tesla at a $1.2T valuation: what is the actual bull case?” It drew 630 comments and 702 upvotes. Shares are down 10.41% year to date and trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a crowded trade beginning to lose its choir.
Where Retirement Money Should Actually Look Ford (NYSE:F) is the redirect. A $55 billion market cap, forward P/E of 8, and a 4.49% dividend yield. Three points make the case.
1. Execution is showing up in the numbers. Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $0.66, revenue of $43.25 billion up 6% YoY, and adjusted EBIT of $3.49 billion, a $2.50 billion improvement year over year. Management then raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Companies raise guidance when the current quarter is already in the bag.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
2. Ford Pro is a real recurring-revenue story hiding in plain sight. Paid software subscriptions reached 879,000, up 30% YoY, with segment EBIT margin at 11.4%. That is the sticky commercial-fleet software business Wall Street is willing to pay 40x earnings for elsewhere. Here you get it inside an 8x stock.
3. Capital is coming back to shareholders. A $0.15 quarterly dividend was paid June 1, 2026, alongside $311 million in Q1 buybacks and $17.65 billion in cash. CEO Jim Farley told investors Ford is targeting an “8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029.” Tesla returns capital through stock-based compensation and pitch decks.
For investors who want direct short exposure to the promise-heavy name rather than the constructive alternative, the AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (NASDAQ:TSLQ) holds 22.33% of net assets in inverse Tesla derivatives. That is a tactical trade for short-term positioning only.
For long-term investors weighing the two, Ford offers a profitable automaker paying cash today while Tesla’s timeline continues to slip.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Elon Musk has been the wealthiest man in the world since 2024, and he reached trillionaire status for the first time when Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.75%) stock briefly topped $200 a share in its first week of trading. However, SpaceX stock is now 26% off its highs, and Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire.
What does that mean for his companies, SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA +1.26%), and for shareholders?
Image source: Getty Images.
Elon Musk and ownership Many of the world's billionaires have their wealth tied up in stock, usually as executives of their companies. Elon Musk heads two of the world's top-15 most valuable companies, and he owns a substantial stake in each. As of July, he owns 717.1 million Tesla shares, or 15.7% of the company, which is worth about $282.4 billion at today's price. He also owns about 46% of SpaceX stock, with more that could come his way based on performance measures. At today's prices, that's $704.5 billion worth, and together, his net worth is $987 billion, just shy of $1 trillion.
Both of these stocks have been sliding lately, although they're both trillion-dollar companies. SpaceX is the seventh-most-valuable company in the U.S., worth $1.94 trillion, while Tesla is 11th and worth $1.48 trillion. Tesla stock is down 12.4% this year. At $148 a share, SpaceX stock is still over its IPO price of $135, but it's dropped below its market open price of $150.
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What about other shareholders? Tesla shareholders have been well-rewarded over time. It's up more than 24,640% since it went public and has almost certainly minted some millionaires, even retail investors who aren't company insiders. However, like SpaceX, it has attracted investors based on hype and Elon Musk fandom. It's a growing company, but there's accelerating competition in the electric vehicle space, and there are worries about lower profits and a high valuation -- based on its shrinking net income, the stock currently trades at 368 times trailing 12-month earnings.
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399.05
SpaceX is even more expensive, trading at 110 times sales, and it's reporting high net losses. It's even clearer that the investing thesis is based on confidence in Elon Musk's vision.
Both of these are risky stocks, but SpaceX has an added risk tied to Elon Musk's ownership, and that's his 82.3% voting rights. That means other shareholders have no recourse if they're unhappy with his leadership or in making any other decisions about the company and its direction.
Right now, neither one of these companies looks like a great bargain on the dip.
There's a strong case to be made that no company has received as much hype entering the market as Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.02%) SpaceX accomplished the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history and captivated a base of Elon Musk enthusiasts and loyalists.
Because of the Musk connection, people have been using Tesla's (TSLA 2.19%) performance as a benchmark for what could be possible for SpaceX. Tesla's stock has struggled this year (down 12% as of the time of writing), but it has produced generational gains since its June 2010 IPO.
A $1,000 investment in Tesla 10 years ago would be worth around $27,400 today -- impressive to say the least. Can SpaceX duplicate those results over the next decade? Let's take a look.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The vision for SpaceX as a company At its core, SpaceX is a rocket launch company. That's what it was founded on, and that continues to be its foundation, but it's spreading its wings beyond just that. It offers Starlink -- a leading global broadband provider -- and, after acquiring xAI (the parent company of X, formerly Twitter), has become a respectable player in AI infrastructure.
That's where SpaceX stands today, but as with Tesla, the main appeal is the long-term ambitions it continues to sell to investors. The two ambitions most consistently discussed are putting data centers in space and achieving a multiplanetary civilization (i.e., humans living on Mars).
Neither of those is something I would expect to happen in the next decade (especially a multiplanetary civilization), but the trend for Musk and Tesla has been to sell the dream and vision and buy time with investors. Tangible progress in space data centers will be a must, though.
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What are the chances that SpaceX has a Tesla-like run? SpaceX's stock increasing by over 2,600% over the next decade would be quite the feat, but it would mean averaging 39% in annual returns over that period. That's far from an easy task, but we've seen it done before. In fact, Tesla's stock jumped over 6,100% in its first decade on the market.
We can't predict how any stock will perform, so there are no guarantees. However, if SpaceX were to make it happen, I'd imagine the bulk of those gains would come in the latter half of the decade. Mega-IPOs have a history of underperforming the market in the first few years after listing, and I see SpaceX following a similar path.
I wouldn't invest in SpaceX expecting it to replicate Tesla's run, since it began trading at a much higher valuation than Tesla, which could limit upside. Invest because you believe in the long-term vision, but there's no rush to do so right now. I'd wait until the IPO mania has cooled a bit before purchasing shares.
With all the excitement around Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, still fresh in investors' minds, it's understandable if Tesla (TSLA 2.18%) has somewhat faded from investor attention. However, that shouldn't detract from the fact that there's been news on the company recently, some of it good, some bad, and more to come in the near term.
First, the bad news on Tesla Tesla is behind schedule on its robotaxi rollout. While recognizing that the rollout is not entirely under the company's control, the reality is that investors key in on what management tells them. Unfortunately, Tesla is not a company known for underpromising and overdelivering, especially when it comes to the robotaxi rollout.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Back on an earnings call in July 2025, CEO Elon Musk said, "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year." Furthermore, going back to the fourth-quarter earnings presentation in January, the company said the robotaxi "status" for seven cities was "H1 2026." That was later changed to "ramping unsupervised" for Dallas and Houston, and "preparations underway" for Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas.
Having passed the half-year mark, only Miami has been added to the list of cities with unsupervised robotaxis (and only in a limited section of Miami), after Dallas and Houston were added in the first quarter and Austin in the last quarter.
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Does it matter? Whichever way you look at it, Tesla is behind management's previous proclamations on timelines. This matters because investors pencil in the company's earnings and cash flows based on these projections, which then need to be pushed back when timelines are not met. As such, it's not surprising that Tesla's stock price is down 6.7% as of this writing in 2026.
Moreover, investors will need to be patient with robotaxi as Musk was clear in the last earnings call in April that "I think it's not going to make sense for us to deploy unsupervised FSD or robotaxi large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety," and this implies waiting for v15 of its full-self driving (FSD) software, which Musk expects "hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year."
Clearly, the key question regarding the robotaxi during the upcoming earnings call is the current status of v15 FSD.
Image source: Tesla.
Tesla's second-quarter delivery total of more than 480,000 blew away the Wall Street consensus of about 406,000. While the bears will be quick to remind the bulls that Tesla isn't a car company (a long-held bullish argument), the reality is that it is good news for Tesla.
Not only does it confirm that the company has moved past the Model Y refresh issue that slowed sales last year, but it also shows it's retaining its market position even as rivals are scaling back their EV plans after failing to gain market share.
Moreover, some back-of-the-envelope calculations show that the 74,000 extra units above Wall Street estimates (assuming an average revenue per unit of $43,000) will result in $3.18 billion in "extra revenue." Given that Tesla's operating cash flow margin was about 15.6% in 2025 and assuming the extra deliveries are capital-spending-neutral, this could result in $500 million in "extra" free cash flow.
That will help derisk Tesla's capital spending plans, which include $25 billion in 2026. As such, the good news on deliveries helps derisk the company's plans.
