ToplineElon Musk on Wednesday deflected questions about a direct merger between his SpaceX and Tesla during the automaker’s earnings call, following months of speculation about a future tie-up of his two firms as the world’s richest person said there is increasingly more “overlap” between them.
Musk told investors there is “more and more overlap” between his two companies.
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Key FactsMusk, in response to a question from Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan about a possible merger between Tesla and SpaceX, said: “We can’t talk about, you know, combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call—it has got to be done with the appropriate process.”
There is “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX, Musk said, referencing Starlink’s integration into Cybertrucks—and later inclusion in all Tesla vehicles, according to Musk—and TeraFab, a proposed AI chip manufacturing venture between Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, which is now a SpaceX subsidiary.
Musk said xAI, now known as SpaceXAI, will develop an AI model to serve as a “manager” for Optimus, Tesla’s robots that Musk has claimed could be the “biggest product ever.”
In response to Langan’s question, Tesla’s general counsel said the automaker will “continue to benefit from our relationship with SpaceX,” citing “numerous beneficial transactions” and investments between them.
tesla misses on earnings, despite revenue beatTesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.2 billion, beating consensus economist projections of $27.2 billion, according to FactSet. The firm posted earnings of 33 cents per share, however, which fell well below estimates of 55 cents. Tesla also reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow in more than two years, running just over $1 billion in the red, as chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja reiterated Tesla planned to spend more than $25 billion this year, noting that figure will likely rise in the coming years.
key backgroundSome analysts have suggested that Tesla and SpaceX could merge, as Musk has worked to fold his companies into one another. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC a deal combining the rocket maker with Tesla “might make Elon’s life a little easier,” arguing there was “no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures.” Musk reportedly discussed the possibility of combining the two companies, and Tesla employees have purportedly said many workers at the company are expecting a transaction to take place. Former Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said ahead of SpaceX’s initial public offering last month his firm had placed odds of 80% or higher for Tesla and SpaceX merging by 2027, writing in a separate note the “groundwork is already in place for both operations to become one organization.”
further readingForbesCould Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Here’s What Analysts—And Betting Markets—SayBy Ty Roush
4:15pm: Earnings loom US stocks ended mostly lower on Wednesday as investors took a breather after two strong sessions, with rising oil prices and caution ahead of a wave of closely watched earnings keeping buying in check.
The Dow Jones finished little changed, slipping 6 points to 52,219. The S&P 500 fell 10 points, or 0.1%, to 7,499, while the Nasdaq underperformed, dropping 146 points, or 0.6%, to 25,691.
Trading was uneven throughout the session as investors stepped back from the artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks that had powered the market's recent rebound. After two days of solid gains, traders appeared content to lock in profits while waiting for the next major catalyst.
Attention now shifts to a busy slate of earnings due after the closing bell, led by Tesla and Alphabet, whose results are expected to provide fresh insight into both AI spending and consumer demand. IBM, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts are also scheduled to report, adding to what is shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the earnings season.
Meanwhile, higher oil prices added another layer of caution to the market, raising concerns that persistent strength in energy could complicate the inflation outlook.
3:40pm: Proactive news headlines Custom Health Holdings Inc (TSX:CHLT) signed a binding letter of intent to acquire Evergreen Pharmacy in a US$3.5 million deal expected to add more than US$78 million in annual revenue. Varon Corp (OTCID:OZSC) announced that its Ballislife Drink joint venture signed a multi-year exclusive agreement to distribute Ballislife HYDRO Sports Drink across Canada, beginning with a C$100,000 purchase order. Aftermath Silver Ltd (TSX-V:AAG, OTCQX:AAGFF, FRA:FLM1) has launched new drilling programs at its Berenguela project in Peru and its Challacollo project in Chile to expand copper, silver and gold mineralization. Snail Inc (NASDAQ:SNAL) said it will attend Gamescom 2026 in Germany, where it plans to showcase its growing game portfolio and unveil a previously undisclosed title. TNR Gold Corp (TSX-V:TNR, FRA:TNW, OTC:TRRXF) announced that Altius Minerals increased its strategic stake in the company by purchasing an additional 7.435 million shares, bringing its total holdings to about 30.94 million shares. 2:30pm: Market movers Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) shares surged about 20% after the AI server maker reported stronger-than-expected preliminary fourth-quarter gross margins and a record order backlog. AT&T Inc (NYSE:T, XETRA:SOBA) shares rose 4.3% after the telecom company reported second-quarter earnings that beat expectations, supported by strong postpaid phone and broadband subscriber growth. Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) shares jumped 29% after the oat drink maker reported stronger second-quarter revenue, improved margins, progress toward profitability and raised its full-year revenue outlook. Pegasystems shares fell about 15% after the enterprise software company reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street expectations. GE Vernova shares declined about 6.4% after widening losses in its wind business overshadowed better-than-expected quarterly revenue and record order growth. Custom Health Holdings Inc (TSX:CHLT) signed a binding letter of intent to acquire Evergreen Pharmacy in a US$3.5 million deal expected to add more than US$78 million in annual revenue. Rocket Lab USA Inc (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares gained about 3% after the company secured a US$266 million contract from the US Air Force and US Space Force to provide suborbital launch services. Varon Corp (OTCID:OZSC) announced that its Ballislife Drink joint venture signed a multi-year exclusive agreement to distribute Ballislife HYDRO Sports Drink across Canada, beginning with a C$100,000 purchase order. Aftermath Silver Ltd (TSX-V:AAG, OTCQX:AAGFF, FRA:FLM1) has launched new drilling programs at its Berenguela project in Peru and its Challacollo project in Chile to expand copper, silver and gold mineralization. 1:00pm: And then there's Alphabet Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) (Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)) reports second-quarter results after Wednesday's close, with Wall Street bracing for a print that could either validate the company's AI spending spree or intensify investor unease about it.
Bank of America is firmly in the bullish camp, reiterating its Buy rating and raising earnings estimates ahead of the print. The bank projects revenue of $102.1 billion and EPS of $8.38, both well above Street consensus of $101 billion and $2.90.
Much of that EPS gap traces to an estimated $80 billion boost to operating income from the revaluation of Alphabet's stake in Anthropic, whose valuation climbed from $380 billion in the first quarter to $965 billion in the second.
Capital spending remains the swing factor. Alphabet already guided full-year 2026 capex to $180 billion to $190 billion, and Bank of America thinks that range could climb another 5%, to $190 billion to $200 billion, given accelerating AI demand and rising memory costs.
12:05pm: Tesla's question mark Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) (Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)) reports second-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and the numbers investors already have in hand tell a split story: a blowout on deliveries, a question mark on spending.
The bigger debate on the call is likely to center on what Tesla is doing with its money, and its robots. The company set aside a $25 billion capital budget for 2026 to fund AI infrastructure and Optimus development, a spending pace analysts expect to push free cash flow to roughly negative $3.25 billion for the quarter.
Shares were flat Wednesday heading into the release.
11:00am: Supermicro surges Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) (Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI)) shares opened about 20% higher on Tuesday after the company released preliminary fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results showing significantly stronger-than-expected gross margins and a record order backlog, despite revenue tracking near the low end of its guidance.
The AI server maker said revenue for the quarter ended June 30 is expected to be near the lower end of its previously issued guidance range of $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion. Wall Street analysts had been expecting revenue of about $11.73 billion.
The company also reported receiving more than $60 billion in new orders during the quarter, lifting its backlog to a record level at the end of fiscal 2026. Supermicro said the orders are expected to be delivered over future quarters.
10am: Dow opens higher, Nasdaq hit by semis selling There has been another uneven open on Wall Street, with investors selling out of technology stocks ahead of key earnings from Alphabet and Tesla after the close.
The Dow Jones has opened up 225 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%, with the S&P 500 oscillating around the flatline.
Industrial and defensive names led the Dow gains, with Honeywell, Verizon, 3M and Chevron the top risers.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq's fall resulted from declines in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks, with AppLovin, SanDisk, Workday, Palantir and Lam Research leading falls as investors take profits after the rally yesterday.
An exception is Super Micro Computer, which jumped over 20% after the company released preliminary results showing significantly stronger-than-expected gross margins and a record order backlog, despite revenue tracking near the low end of its guidance.
8.10am: Tech stocks to see Wall Street open lower Wall Street stocks looked set for a weaker open on Wednesday as investors lock in profits in technology stocks ahead of crucial earnings from Google owner Alphabet and Tesla, while escalating tensions in the Middle East push oil prices to six-week highs.
Dow Jones futures were down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 was called 0.4% lower and the hardest hit is expected to be the Nasdaq, where futures have dropped 1%, with chipmakers leading the pre-market declines after a sharp rebound in the previous session.
The cautious mood follows a strong rally the day before, when the Dow Jones rose 380 points, or 0.7%, to 52,443, the S&P 500 gained 0.9% to 7,546, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.3% to 29,316, helped by a powerful recovery in semiconductor stocks after weeks of heavy selling.
Earnings from Alphabet and Tesla are due after the bell, with analysts seeing these as key tests for the artificial intelligence trade.
Markets will be watching Alphabet for updates on AI-related capital spending and monetisation, while Tesla's results are expected to provide fresh detail on autonomous driving, robotics and vehicle demand.
Results from Texas Instruments, IBM and ServiceNow will also be closely watched in the evening, while Philip Morris, GE Vernova and AT&T report before the opening bell.
Chip stocks were under pressure in pre-market trading as investors took profits following a 5.5% jump in the sector the previous session.
Semiconductor stocks have been under heavy pressure in recent weeks as hedge funds aggressively unwound crowded AI trades, driving the sector around 25% below its early June peak.
Tuesday's rebound came as "the Momo guys [momentum traders] ran out of stock to sell, so the pressure was off," said market strategist Kenny Polcari at Slatestone Wealth, suggesting the wave of forced selling may have largely run its course.
Meanwhile, Brent crude traded above $94 a barrel after another night of US strikes on Iranian targets and renewed threats to shipping routes in the Middle East from Yemen.
The stronger oil price has revived concerns that inflation could prove more persistent, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook just as investors had begun to scale back expectations of further interest-rate increases.
"10 straight days of US strikes and continued attacks on military targets have kept a geopolitical premium firmly embedded in oil prices and that will become more of an issue next month and the months after," said Polcari.
There is little in the way of economic data due on Wednesday, putting more of the onus on corporate earnings and developments in the Middle East.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported second-quarter revenue that topped Wall Street expectations, but profitability metrics missed forecasts as margins compressed.
Revenue reached $28.24 billion, up 26% year-over-year and ahead of the $26.32 billion estimate.
But adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.33, missing the $0.51 forecast and down 18% from a year earlier.
The miss sent shares down about 3.4% immediately after the bell on Wednesday.
Gross margin fell to 16.8% against expectations of 19.4%, while automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits dropped 310 basis points to 16.3%. Operating margin was 1.4%, well below the 5.4% estimate.
Automotive revenue rose 23% to $20.52 billion, beating forecasts, while energy revenue of $3.14 billion fell short of expectations despite growing 13%. Services revenue jumped 50% to a record $4.58 billion in gross profit. Regulatory credit revenue fell 67% to $146 million.
Deliveries rose 25% to 480,126 vehicles, and production increased 10% to 451,758 units. Vehicle inventory tightened to 15 days of supply from 27 in the prior quarter.
Operating income fell 57% to $398 million, and GAAP net income declined 5% to $1.11 billion, helped by a $1.01 billion unrealized gain on Tesla's SpaceX stake. Capital expenditures rose 142% to $5.79 billion, while free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion, a smaller shortfall than analysts expected.
On autonomy, Tesla said cybercab production has started at Gigafactory Texas and robotaxi service now spans seven US metro areas, with unsupervised operations ramping in several cities. More than 55% of North American deliveries included an FSD subscription, and active subscriptions rose 56% to 1.48 million.
The company said Optimus production lines are being installed, with output expected in 2026, and gave no new numerical guidance for deliveries, earnings or capital spending.
Tesla Q2 results live: Investors look to Elon Musk's earnings call after automaker posts cash burnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
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Live Coverage Updates appear automatically as they are published.
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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Tesla’s earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Telsa to release earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
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That wraps up our initial coverage of Tesla’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!
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Tesla generated $4.70 billion in operating cash flow during Q2, an 85% increase from one year ago. However, capital expenditures climbed 142% to $5.79 billion, dropping free cash flow to negative $1.09 billion.
Tesla is simultaneously funding Cybercab production, Robotaxi expansion, Optimus manufacturing lines, AI compute, battery capacity, semiconductor production, and new energy-storage factories. The company more than doubled its on-site AI compute capacity in Texas during the first half of 2026.
The investment cycle is already affecting margins and cash generation. Tesla’s adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 15.1% to 11.6%, while cash and investments declined by $1.2 billion sequentially to $43.52 billion.
Tesla still has ample liquidity, but the quarter makes the tradeoff clear: the company is sacrificing near-term profitability and free cash flow to fund its autonomy, robotics, and manufacturing ambitions.
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Tesla disclosed several tangible milestones for its autonomy business. Cybercab production has begun at Gigafactory Texas, with engineering vehicles already undergoing public-road testing and providing employee rides on the factory campus.
Tesla’s Robotaxi service is now live in seven major metropolitan areas. Unsupervised operations are ramping in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, while the Bay Area service currently uses a safety driver.
FSD adoption is also accelerating. Active subscriptions increased 56% year over year to 1.48 million, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription during Q2.
These figures provide investors with early evidence that Tesla is beginning to convert its autonomy narrative into real-world deployments and recurring software revenue.
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Tesla shares initially fell 3% after Q2 revenue reached $28.24 billion, beating the $26.49 billion consensus estimate and rising 26% year over year.
The problem was profitability. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.33 versus $0.54 expected and declined 18% year over year. Operating income plunged 57% to $398 million, while operating margin contracted from 4.1% to just 1.4%.
Tesla attributed the decline to rising spending on AI and other R&D projects, higher stock-based compensation, lower vehicle pricing, fewer regulatory credits, and energy warranty charges. Regulatory-credit revenue fell 67% year over year to $146 million.
The quarter showed Tesla can still drive volume growth, but doing so while funding its AI ambitions is placing significant pressure on near-term earnings.
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Tesla just reported Q2 earnings, with shares initially down 3% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Revenue: $28.24 billion vs. $26.49 billion expected EPS: $0.33 vs. $0.54 expected Quick Read:
Tesla delivered a 7% revenue beat, with sales rising 26% year over year and sequentially.
However, EPS missed estimates by 39% and declined 18% year over year, suggesting weaker profitability overshadowed the strong top-line performance.
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What Polymarket Traders Are Pricing In The crowd’s conviction on tonight’s beat has actually strengthened into the report. The Yes probability moved from 71.5% on July 19 to 76.5% on July 21, then to 78% today on rising volume.
For the week, Polymarket’s modal price target is $367.50 at 67.5% probability, with a Friday close above $375 pegged at roughly 51.5%. Above $400 is a 19.5% shot. Tesla currently trades at $374.94 half an hour before earnings.
Credibility Check: The crowd has resolved 223 TSLA markets at a 75.3% correct rate, with an average Brier score of 0.138. Last week’s weekly-hit target of $382.50 landed exactly.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Translation: Expect a beat, a tight range, and muted upside follow-through.
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Wildcards Not Priced Into Consensus Beyond the headline numbers, here are four under-appreciated variables could swing tonight’s Q2 earnings for Tesla.
FX reversal risk: Q1 2026 benefited from a ~$0.9B positive FX tailwind, versus only ~$0.3B in Q4 2025. USD strength against EUR, CNY, and JPY could compress the top line. Regulatory credits fade: Credits slid to $380M in Q1, down from $739M a year earlier. U.S. EV credit expiration magnifies quarterly variance. Tariff one-timers: Q1 automotive margin absorbed one-time warranty and tariff-related gains that likely won’t repeat. Crypto swing on GAAP: Digital asset losses hit $222M in Q1. Options traders are hedged, with a 0.79 full-chain put/call ratio.
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Why Guidance Matters More Than the Q2 Print Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) doesn’t hand out quarterly revenue or EPS targets, so tonight’s $0.5367 EPS and $26.36 billion revenue consensus estimates are likely going to be overshadowed by any clarification on the company’s upcoming AI and autonomy roadmap.
Bullish setup: A firm late July or August Optimus V3 production start Cybercab and Semi ramp on track Robotaxi expansion toward a dozen states by the end of this year Auto gross margin ex-credits holding above 19.2% Bearish setup: Slippage on Cybercab, Optimus, or Megapack 3 Softer margin commentary as over $25 billion in 2026 capex pressures free cash flow Muted FSD subscription growth off the 1.28M base. History shows that guidance is usually the biggest factor in how the stock reacts after earnings.
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Bull Case Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles signal demand recovery, and automotive gross margin already expanded to 21.1% in Q1 from 16.2%. FSD subscriptions hit 1.28 million (+51% YoY), and Services revenue jumped 42% YoY to $3.75 billion. Polymarket assigns a 77.5% beat probability, with the last surprise at +17.78%. Cash of $44.7 billion funds Optimus, Cybercab, and Megapack 3 ramps. Bear Case At a forward P/E near 167, valuation leaves no margin for error. Operating expenses surged 37% in Q1 on AI and CEO stock-based comp. Tesla missed EPS in Q2 and Q3 2025, and both recent beats sold off -3.56% and -3.45% same-day. Polymarket sees just a 20% chance shares finish today higher. 2 hours ago
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With Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reporting tonight after the close, here are some top questions we expect analysts to ask.
Top 5 Analyst Questions Automotive gross margin ex-credits after Q1’s 19.2% print Robotaxi unit economics across a dozen states by year-end Optimus V3 production ramp and Fremont line status FSD take rate after subscription shift; 1.3 million paid users trajectory CapEx trajectory versus over $25 billion 2026 guide Key Topics Management Must Address Energy storage reversal after -12% YoY Q1 decline China FSD approval timeline Cybercab volume ramp and Semi start Buzzwords to Listen For “Unsupervised autonomy,” “AI5,” “Megapack 3,” “capacity utilization” Polymarket assigns 97% odds Musk says “software” Red Flags Rising inventory days beyond 27 Negative free cash flow guide extension Any Optimus timeline slippage 2 hours ago
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Tesla reports Q2 earnings tonight, with Wall Street expecting about $0.54 in EPS on $26.36 billion in revenue.
The company has already disclosed Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, shifting investors’ attention toward automotive margins, Full Self-Driving monetization, Robotaxi progress, and the timeline for Optimus.
Polymarket traders assign a 78% probability that Tesla beats earnings estimates. However, they also see a 77% probability that shares finish today lower, suggesting that investors already have high expectations heading into tonight’s earnings.
Tesla trades at roughly 167 times forward earnings, and the company’s valuation depends heavily on its AI, robotics, and autonomy businesses becoming major commercial successes. Stable automotive margins and credible Optimus and Robotaxi milestones could support Wall Street’s average price target of $425.22 compared to the stock’s current price of $375.89.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports Q2 2026 earnings results tonight at 4:05 PM ET after the market closes. Shares sit at $376.03, down 15.74% year to date. With delivery volume already disclosed, tonight will give investors a read into the company’s margins and commentary around key product lines.
Momentum Returns for Tesla, But Valuation Still Stretched In Q1 2026, revenue reached $22.39B (+15.8% YoY), non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.41 versus $0.35 estimated, and automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2% a year earlier. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.44B, and cash swelled to $44.74B.
Since that April release, shares have slipped 2.21% as caution built. Reddit sentiment is neutral-to-bearish, with WallStreetBets carrying a 32 score into the report. The full-chain put/call ratio of 0.76 reflects hedging, not panic.
Consensus Estimates Metric Q2 2026 Estimate Q2 2025 Actual Revenue $26.36B $22.50B EPS (Normalized) $0.5367 $0.40 Analysts expect Tesla to see solid double-digit growth, aided by the delivery beat and energy storage momentum. The EPS bar sits above last year’s Q2, meaning any margin slippage from tariff normalization or credit weakness would be visible immediately.
What I’m Watching: Margins, Optimus Cadence, and FSD Monetization Tonight, I’ll be watching automotive gross margin first. Q1’s 21.1% gross margin benefited from lower material costs and one-time warranty and tariff gains. Investors will focus on whether ex-credits margin holds in the high teens as regulatory credits keep normalizing lower.
Optimus commentary will be another important lever to watch tonight. Musk framed it as “the biggest product ever” and guided Fremont starter production for later this year, with a Giga Texas line targeting summer next year. Polymarket assigns just a 22% chance of an Optimus release by year-end, so any V3 reveal date matters.
FSD monetization is the third watchpoint. Paid subscribers hit nearly 1.3 million, EU approval cleared in the Netherlands, and Robotaxi expanded to Dallas and Houston. I’ll be watching FSD attach rates and any Robotaxi state count update against Musk’s “dozen states by the end of this year” aspiration.
Fourth, capex discipline. CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided for over $25 billion of CapEx for 2026 with negative free cash flow implied. Any softening of that framing would be a positive tell for cash generation. Prediction markets put near-certain odds on management mentioning Software, Robot, Factory, and Optimus during the call.
Earnings History Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 1-Week Move 30-Day Move Q1 2026 +14.14% -3.56% +2.12% +16.02% Q4 2025 +6.38% -3.45% -4.65% -5.79% Q3 2025 -10.35% +2.28% -1.98% -6.95% Q2 2025 -1.11% -8.20% +0.97% +13.53% On average, shares moved +0.73% one week after earnings over the past year.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Had you purchased Tesla (TSLA -1.29%) 10 years ago and held one, you'd have reaped a monster 2,380% return (as of July 21). That's a nearly 25-fold gain, something any investor would be ecstatic about.
It now has a market cap of $1.4 trillion, so there is certainly not as much upside potential in its future as there was in its past. But could buying this "Magnificent Seven" stock today eventually give you a 10x return?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The potential of Robotaxi and Optimus Tesla is still primarily an electric vehicle company, but its bull case rests more on its ability to bring artificial intelligence capabilities to the physical world at scale.
One area this will show up is autonomous driving technology. Tesla is currently operating its self-driving Robotaxis service with unsupervised rides in four U.S. cities. Clearly, it will have a lot of work to do to get it up and running at scale in markets around the world. But if it can compete successfully against the other players in the self-driving and ride-share spaces, there's a chance it could result in a sizable high-margin revenue stream.
Its Optimus humanoid robot is another initiative that provides the business with optionality. Tesla began preparations for its first large-scale Optimus factory in Q2. The ultimate goal is to sell these machines both to enterprise clients and consumers.
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Expectations are sky-high Tesla is working on ambitious projects. Yet even if it finds success with Robotaxi and Optimus, it's hard to know if shareholders will be happy.
That's because the company's sky-high valuation introduces a notable headwind to further share price appreciation. The stock trades today at a price-to-earnings ratio of 353. Even with flawless execution on Tesla's part, the optimism already baked into the stock might leave it with little to gain from rising earnings and revenues. With that in mind, investors should not expect another 10x gain from the stock. It's also worth repeating that retail investors should not put all of their eggs in one basket, nor all of their portfolio in one stock. So if you buy Tesla shares today, even in the unlikely event that the company does increase in value tenfold from here, that would not 10x your net worth.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Steve Westly discusses why Tesla's (TSLA) energy business could be a key driver of future growth ahead of earnings, making the case its position in the sector proves just as valuable as EVs and AI. Tu Le weighs in on Tesla's outlook internationally, discussing market conditions and noting that the company's factory production remains strong despite ongoing pressure.
Tesla reported negative free cash flow in the second quarter for the first time in more than two years as the Elon Musk-led EV maker accelerated spending on AI infrastructure, battery capacity, robotaxis and next-generation manufacturing.
AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Tesla has released its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 by posting an update on its Investor Relations website. Please visit https://ir.tesla.com to view the update. As previously announced, Tesla management will host a live company update and question and answer (Q&A) webcast at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the results and outlook. What: Tesla Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Q&A Webcast When: Wednesday,.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported second-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.
Here are the highlights.
Tesla Q2 EarningsTesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.24 billion. The total beat a Street consensus estimate of $25.71 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Second-quarter earnings of 33 cents per share missed a Street consensus estimate of 50 cents per share.
Tesla previously reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year. The total beat a Street estimate of 406,000.
The company said it hit $100 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue for the first time in history in the second quarter.
Active FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million in the second quarter, up 56% year-over-year and up from the 1.28 million reported in the first quarter.
Tesla ended the quarter with digital assets worth $674 million, made up primarily of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holdings. This marks a significantly lower figure than the $786 million in the first quarter, with the leading cryptocurrency trading lower this year.
What’s Next for TeslaThe company said its first-generation production lines for Optimus Bot are being installed in anticipation of production in 2026, with the company saying production will happen "soon."
The Cybercab is listed as in production, an improvement from the company saying it expected volume production "this year" last quarter. Tesla said the vehicle began production in the quarter.
The Tesla Semi is listed as "commissioning" and the company said it remains on track for volume production this year.
"We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories," the company said.
Tesla said deliveries and deployments will depend on demand.
"Tesla is in its largest and most exciting period of investment."
The company said it has "never been more optimistic about the future."
Tesla Stock Price ActionTesla stock is down 2.8% to $363.42 in after-hours trading Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.83.
Image via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported second-quarter revenue that topped Wall Street expectations, but profitability metrics missed forecasts as margins compressed.
Revenue reached $28.24 billion, up 26% year-over-year and ahead of the $26.32 billion estimate.
But adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.33, missing the $0.51 forecast and down 18% from a year earlier.
The miss sent shares down about 3.4% immediately after the bell on Wednesday.
Gross margin fell to 16.8% against expectations of 19.4%, while automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits dropped 310 basis points to 16.3%. Operating margin was 1.4%, well below the 5.4% estimate.
Automotive revenue rose 23% to $20.52 billion, beating forecasts, while energy revenue of $3.14 billion fell short of expectations despite growing 13%. Services revenue jumped 50% to a record $4.58 billion in gross profit. Regulatory credit revenue fell 67% to $146 million.
Deliveries rose 25% to 480,126 vehicles, and production increased 10% to 451,758 units. Vehicle inventory tightened to 15 days of supply from 27 in the prior quarter.
Operating income fell 57% to $398 million, and GAAP net income declined 5% to $1.11 billion, helped by a $1.01 billion unrealized gain on Tesla's SpaceX stake. Capital expenditures rose 142% to $5.79 billion, while free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion, a smaller shortfall than analysts expected.
On autonomy, Tesla said cybercab production has started at Gigafactory Texas and robotaxi service now spans seven US metro areas, with unsupervised operations ramping in several cities. More than 55% of North American deliveries included an FSD subscription, and active subscriptions rose 56% to 1.48 million.
The company said Optimus production lines are being installed, with output expected in 2026, and gave no new numerical guidance for deliveries, earnings or capital spending.
Tesla is no longer planning to reach “volume production” of three of its newest products – the Cybercab, the Tesla Semi, and its Megapack 3 commercial energy storage solution – in 2026, according to a second-quarter shareholder letter published Wednesday. The company also removed language from its first-quarter letter about its Optimus robot reaching “volume production.”
The company said Wednesday that it’s trying to increase battery production, specifically around the company’s 4680 cell, in order to start building the Cybercab and Tesla Semi at scale. It did not offer a reason for pushing back volume production of the new Megapack, or say whether there are any holdups around Optimus.
Tesla started making the first production Cybercabs at its factory in Austin, Texas earlier this year, but said in the letter that it’s still building out the manufacturing lines for the Semi and Optimus. The company had said as recently as January that the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 would reach “volume production” this year.
The pullback comes as the company plows money into its next generation of products while attempting to shift from an EV maker to an AI and robotics company. Tesla’s results, which showed net income falling 5% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, capital expenditures more than doubling, and negative free cash flow, were slightly buoyed by an uptick in revenue.
Still that revenue boost wasn’t enough to offset the cost of business and Tesla’s push to develop and launch new products, which Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja previously said would lead to negative cash flow for the remainder of the year.
The company reported revenue of $28.2 billion, a 26% increase from the $22.5 billion it generated in the second quarter of 2025. Tesla’s second-quarter revenue also grew from the previous quarter’s haul of $22.38 billion.
The bulk of its revenue came from selling and leasing its EVs — and those results improved significantly this quarter.
The company reported automotive revenue of $20.5 billion in the second quarter, compared to $16.6 billion in the same-year ago period. Tesla delivered more than 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter, an increase of more than 120,000 from the first quarter.
It was Tesla’s best result for overall sales since the third quarter of last year, when it delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles. The increase was driven by record sales in several markets outside of the U.S., including South Korea, Australia, Colombia, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Portugal, the Philippines, Chile, Slovenia and Lithuania, the company said in its shareholder letter.
Tesla’s second-quarter revenue results improved from a year ago when the company suffered from a combination of falling EV sales, lower average selling prices, less cash from regulatory credits, and a drop in solar and energy revenue.
Sales of energy storage and solar also proved to be a standout, improving 13% to $3.1 billion. And subscriptions to Tesla’s advanced driver assistance system, known as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) continue to rise. The company reported 1.48 million subscriptions, a 56% increase from the same period last year.
Tesla’s bottom line, however, slipped as it poured money into new products and saw its gross margins squeezed.
Tesla reported net income of $1.1 billion, a 5% decrease from the same period a year ago. At the same time, its operating expenses ballooned by 47% to $4.3 billion. Meanwhile, Tesla had negative free cash flow of $1 billion in the second quarter, a stark change from the $1.44 billion in positive free cash flow it reported last quarter and the $146 million it had in the same period last year.
The company’s operating income was $398 million, a 57% drop from the $932 million it reported in the same period last year.
A year ago, Tesla called the second quarter of 2025 a “seminal point” in the company’s history and the beginning of its transition from a company that sells electric vehicles, solar, and energy storage to one that leads in “AI, robotics and related services.”
That transition is still underway and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the company would boost spending to achieve its goal. Tesla said its capital expenditure will be $25 billion in 2026, about three times more than it historically has spent.
This spring, the company ended production of its flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV vehicles at its Fremont, California factory to make way for its Optimus humanoid robot. It is also bringing its Tesla Robotaxi service to new cities, albeit with a limited number of vehicles. And it’s still pushing to sell owners on Full Self-Driving (Supervised), and eventually make that product capable enough to handle all driving without the need of a human.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
You can contact or verify outreach from Kirsten by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at kkorosec.07 on Signal.
Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
TSLA stock is moving ahead of earnings. See the chart and price action here. For Q2, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, up 25% from a year ago and marking its strongest second quarter ever. Wall Street’s consensus pegs total revenue at $25.71 billion, with non‑GAAP earnings at 50 cents, according to Benzinga Pro estimates.
On paper, that looks like a solid reset after a bruising stretch of revenue stagnation and margin compression. In practice, it raises the core question: is the delivery boom finally translating into durable earnings power, or is the headline growth being hollowed out by aggressive price cuts and rising costs?
Deliveries Are Up, But Did Profit Follow?Stephen Callahan, trading behavior analyst at Firstrade, cuts straight to that tension in an exclusive conversation with Benzinga.
"The question for investors is whether the surge in car deliveries actually made money or did they get eaten by price cuts," he says, framing Q2 as a margin stress test, not a victory lap.
Callahan notes, "Previously, Tesla reported its volume numbers. For the second quarter, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, up 25% from the quarter last year, for its strongest second quarter ever."
Tesla stock has already celebrated the volume surprise, and Wednesday’s earnings print will decide whether that enthusiasm is justified.
Consensus Expectations Underline A Fragile Story Gross margin is projected at 19.5% Operating margin is at just 5.4% Net income attributable to common shareholders around $1.28 billion. At the same time, analysts expect negative free cash flow of roughly $3.25 billion, as heavy capital spending outstrips operating cash generation. The mix — record units, modest profit and cash burn — suggests the combination of 480,126 deliveries and a near $28 billion revenue forecast may be stretching expectations faster than Tesla’s actual earnings power is recovering.
Callahan’s real warning sits between the lines.
Wall Street "analysts estimate that Tesla will report second‑quarter GAAP earnings between 34 and 36 cents per share, and non‑GAAP earnings at 55 cents per share. Analysts project total revenue to be $27.58 billion. This would be Tesla’s first revenue growth in more than a year."
If Tesla can’t convert this delivery spike into fatter margins and cleaner cash flow, investors may conclude that the company has rediscovered volume, not genuine profitability — and start to mark down how much a "blowout" quarter is really worth.
TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla stock was down 0.21% at $378.14 at the time of publication Wednesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Over the past month, TSLA has declined about 4.8% versus a 0.2% rise in the S&P 500 and is down roughly 18% year-to-date compared to the index’s 9.3% gain.
Photo: mundissima / Shutterstock
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"Make your espresso on the road while your Tesla drives itself," wrote Musk in one post. Johannes Neudecker/picture alliance via Getty Images Elon Musk's posting habits are putting Tesla under the microscope — again.
Regulators looking into Tesla's Full Self-Driving have asked the company for more information about a series of X posts in which CEO Elon Musk said drivers could text and make an espresso while using the automated driving assist technology.
In a request for information sent to Tesla on July 2, officials at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) asked the company to clarify posts made on Musk and Tesla's accounts.
These include a post from December 2025 in which Musk said FSD users could text and drive "depending on [the] context of surrounding traffic."
"This is so cool. Make your espresso on the road while your Tesla drives itself," Musk wrote in another post cited by the document. The billionaire was responding to a video showing a Tesla owner using an espresso machine and reclining his seat while FSD was engaged.
The NHTSA also cited posts from Musk saying that FSD can "operate in all conditions" and that an FSD update will "substantially reduce" the need for driver attention, as well as posts from Tesla promoting the technology.
The regulator asked Tesla to clarify whether these examples were "accurate and consistent" with FSD's capabilities, and if the company has done anything to reduce the potential for "misunderstanding or misuse."
On its website and in owner manuals, Tesla makes it clear that drivers using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) should pay attention to the road and be ready to take over at all times.
It's not the first time Tesla has faced legal and regulatory scrutiny over the way it promotes FSD.
The Model Y maker was ordered to pay $242 million in damages last year over a wrongful-death lawsuit that alleged Tesla's advertising exaggerated the capabilities of Autopilot, FSD's predecessor, and the company struck a deal to avoid a ban in California in February after a judge ruled that its "Autopilot" and "Full Self-Driving" branding was misleading.
The NHTSA investigation, which was opened in October 2024 and upgraded to an engineering analysis in March, is looking into FSD's ability to alert the driver in low-visibility conditions. The probe was opened following several reports of Tesla's crashing in areas where visibility was reduced by "sun glare, fog, or airborne dust."
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Tesla (TSLA -0.46%) saw a significant increase in deliveries in the second quarter of 2026. The electric vehicle giant's 480,126 deliveries were up from 384,122 in the second quarter of 2025, a huge 25% year-over-year increase. The second-quarter 2026 figure was also above the Wall Street consensus for roughly 406,000 deliveries.
CEO Elon Musk must be doing something right... Or is there more to the story?
Image source: The White House.
What happened a year ago? While it may seem like ancient history, Elon Musk was heavily involved in politics in 2025. That led to a backlash against the electric vehicle company he founded, which depressed EV sales. Increasing competition in the EV market was another headwind. Tesla's 25% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 deliveries was at least partly a recovery from a unique period when deliveries were depressed. Elon Musk was clearly a key factor in both quarters, but it wasn't really anything the CEO did at the company.
That said, second-quarter 2026 deliveries did beat Wall Street expectations. That is a good sign, but there are also factors beyond the CEO that need to be considered. Most notably, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has upended the global energy market. Oil is a commodity, and the reduced supply caused by the conflict pushed prices higher. That, in turn, has resulted in higher gasoline prices. In the face of higher gas prices, new-car buyers could be shifting to EVs to reduce fuel costs. Elon Musk had very little to do with this dynamic.
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Elon Musk is a visionary, but he isn't responsible for everything To be fair, Tesla wouldn't be the company it is without Elon Musk. The CEO is a brilliant, visionary leader. In fact, there might not be an electric vehicle market at all if it weren't for Musk. But that doesn't mean every Tesla success is directly tied back to Musk, nor does it mean all shortfalls are, either. And yet, it is noteworthy that Tesla's stock price fell after it reported its strong second-quarter delivery numbers.
When Tesla reports earnings after the close on July 22, investors will be looking to see what the company is planning for the future. Elon Musk appears to be shifting gears, pushing more toward AI and automation. That includes both humanoid robots and self-driving vehicle services. In other words, huge capital spending plans may be the norm, which investors could find worrying. So while every company outcome isn't a result of something that Elon Musk is doing at Tesla, Musk's vision will likely be closely watched again this quarter because it still has a material long-term impact on the company.
EVs, AI, Robots and RobotaxisTesla reports their second-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close and similar to recent quarterly reports, the information and management commentary could be less about consumer electric vehicles and more about AI, robots and autonomous vehicles.
Benzinga asked viewers about Tesla’s future growth plans.
The results are:
Humanoid Robots (Optimus Bot): 32% Robotaxis: 30% New electric vehicle models: 26% FSD Monthly subscriptions: 12% While the Optimus Bot won, the poll divided Benzinga readers on humanoid robots, robotaxis and new EV models. FSD monthly subscriptions finished last in the poll with only 12%.
The fact that humanoid robots and robotaxis got 62% of the votes in the poll signals a major shift for Tesla and one that CEO Elon Musk is betting on.
Musk has said that FSD and Optimus are "the biggest factors" in Tesla achieving its Master Plan Part 4.
"80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus," Musk tweeted previously.
“I think that’s probably correct if we execute well on autonomous transport and Optimus,” Musk said.
In June 2024, Musk also said Optimus could help Tesla hit a $25 trillion market capitalization.
Tesla is expected to begin third-party sales and high-volume production of Optimus in 2027.
Tesla Q2 EarningsTesla has beaten analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share in two straight quarters, but the stock price has fallen after three of the last four earnings reports with an average loss of 5% over that time.
The revenue and earnings per share continue to matter less for Tesla investors and analysts than the commentary from Musk and the future timeline for items like FSD, new vehicles, robotaxis and the Optimus Bot.
Tesla gave updates on robotaxi paid miles, robotaxi city rollouts, FSD subscriptions and a timeline on its vehicle releases during its first-quarter earnings report and conference call.
“We are excited about Tesla’s positioning in 2026 with tailwinds persisting for the auto business, our continued progress on FSD 4, the ramp of Robotaxi, progress on Optimus ahead of mass production and the growth of our energy production capacity,” the company said after first-quarter results.
The previous timeline was for the Cybercab to enter volume production "this year."
Investors will be closely watching to see the update numbers on these growth initiatives and an updated timeline on releases.
Price ActionTesla stock is down 0.3% to $377.98 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.83. The company’s shares are down 13.8% year-to-date in 2026.
Photo courtesy: Rokas Tenys on Shutterstock.com
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA is continuing to execute on a profound structural pivot. By launching unsupervised robotaxi rides in Orlando and Tampa, Tesla is transitioning from internal research and development into the commercial monetization of its Full Self-Driving stack. Investors are watching the real-time evolution of a traditional vehicle manufacturer into a high-margin software network operator.
Tesla Today
$377.46 -1.47 (-0.39%)
As of 12:36 PM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$297.82▼
$498.83P/E Ratio346.21
Price Target$408.07
The broader market has spent years debating the timeline of autonomous driving, often punishing Tesla for missed deadlines and aggressive management promises. Shares of Tesla stock currently trade near $380, down about 15% from the beginning of the year. Short-term traders might view that year-to-date slide as fundamental weakness, but the deployment of an unsupervised commercial fleet in major Florida markets suggests the technology is maturing faster than regulatory skeptics modeled.
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Investors willing to look past the daily price action are seeing a commercial rollout that alters the valuation math. When a hardware business switches to recurring revenue, the quality of its revenue changes. The Florida rollout is not a beta test; it is a commercial revenue-generating milestone that begins to justify the structural shift the market has been anticipating.
Pumping the Brakes on Margin PanicTo understand the financial mechanics of this transition, investors need to look closely at the recent second-quarter delivery report. Tesla beat delivery estimates by 18%, a significant hardware stabilization metric. For a legacy automaker, an 18% delivery beat is all about moving inventory off the lot to recognize one-time sales revenue. For a software-centric enterprise, those vehicles represent immediate expansions to the total addressable market for a high-margin subscription service.
Headlines often highlight that net margins have compressed to 3.95%, with pretax margins at 5.55%. Pure-play electric vehicle competitors continue to force aggressive pricing across the industry, squeezing profitability from physical cars. If market participants evaluate Tesla strictly as a metal-bending manufacturer, single-digit margins are an immediate red flag.
This margin compression is actually a calculated acquisition cost. The strategy relies on distributing the hardware at a lower premium to capture recurring, software-as-a-service revenue. The physical car is effectively becoming the delivery mechanism for the artificial intelligence (AI) network.
Tesla is willing to take a hit on upfront hardware sales because the lifetime value of a Full Self-Driving subscriber far outweighs the initial margin loss. Retained earnings and operational cash flow of $2.73 per share are being aggressively reallocated into artificial intelligence infrastructure and compute capacity, building the rails for a new utility network.
Pricing the Autonomous PremiumValuation is where the fundamental divergence between retail sentiment and institutional positioning becomes obvious. A trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 347x and a price-to-sales multiple of 14.5x are incompatible with legacy automotive benchmarks. Persistently elevated interest rates typically crush long-duration growth assets, yet Tesla maintains a market capitalization anchored at $1.42 trillion.
Institutions are willing to pay this premium because they are factoring in the technology's scalability. Competitors like Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOGL through Waymo and General Motors Company NYSE: GM through Cruise approach autonomy with heavy LIDAR sensors and restricted, pre-mapped geofences. Those competing networks require immense localized capital expenditure to expand block by block.
The Full Self-Driving stack utilizes a generalized, vision-based approach. The ability to deploy unsupervised robotaxis in Orlando and Tampa simultaneously, without waiting for exhaustive local pre-mapping, validates the scalability of this generalized system.
Investors are paying the 347x multiple for software that can theoretically scale globally without being tethered to a rigid geofenced grid. Software businesses command higher multiples because once the code is written, the cost of distributing it to the millionth user is virtually zero. As the Florida fleet scales, the incremental revenue drops straight to the bottom line, which will eventually pull that 347x multiple down to earth through pure earnings growth.
Crash-Testing the Balance SheetAny transition of this magnitude carries inherent friction, primarily from legal and regulatory bodies attempting to keep pace with technological advancement. The February 2026 $243 million Autopilot verdict from a Florida jury acts as a stark reminder of Tesla’s ongoing legal liabilities.
When evaluating a legal penalty, investors should assess it against the balance sheet to determine whether it is an existential threat or an operational cost of doing business. Generating $97.88 billion in annual sales, Tesla maintains a liquidity profile with a current ratio of 2.04 and a remarkably low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. From a fundamental perspective, a $243 million verdict is easily absorbed.
The broader market often overreacts to these headlines, but the underlying data tells a very specific story. The legal outcome exposes ongoing regulatory friction, yet Tesla is concurrently expanding its commercial robotaxi operations in the same state where the verdict was delivered. Capital is flowing toward the physical rollout, treating the legal penalties as manageable speed bumps rather than structural roadblocks. Regulatory fines are effectively becoming a line-item capital expenditure required to pioneer the autonomous space.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Price Chart for Wednesday, July, 22, 2026
Plotting Your Next Market ManeuverThe options market currently reflects a moderately bullish speculative bias, with call volume actively outpacing put volume ahead of near-term catalysts. Traders are anticipating that software commercialization will drive the next leg of growth. Conversely, corporate insiders have exhibited a distinct pattern of selling shares, taking liquidity off the table while valuations remain elevated.
Those conflicting signals require a measured, pragmatic approach. Investors are looking at a business navigating a capital-intensive transition phase. The hardware segment will likely continue to face margin pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and aggressive pricing by competitors. Investors might consider looking past the immediate quarter-to-quarter automotive delivery metrics to focus heavily on software adoption rates and autonomous fleet expansion milestones.
The Florida rollout proves the commercial phase is officially underway. Those with a higher risk tolerance might view the recent year-to-date pullback as an entry point into the AI infrastructure transition, prioritizing the high-margin network potential over the stagnant legacy auto narrative. Market participants should keep a close watch on how quickly the unsupervised fleet expands beyond Tampa and Orlando, as that velocity will be the ultimate fundamental metric that dictates the stock price over the next 12 months.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) enters its Q2 2026 earnings report today with shares down 15.74% year-to-date, closing Monday at $378.93 and trading near $376.88 intraday. That drawdown lags the broader tech sector and reflects a narrative dominated by concerns over brand sentiment tied to Elon Musk’s political activities, softer year-over-year delivery comparisons, and a 12% YoY decline in Energy Generation & Storage revenue last quarter.
Investors are overlooking the operating leverage building underneath. Automotive gross margin has already snapped back, free cash flow more than doubled last quarter, and FSD subscription growth is accelerating into a high-margin recurring stream.
Tesla’s Margin Recovery and FSD Monetization Should Drive a Beat Consensus for Q2 2026 sits at $0.53 in EPS on $26.36 billion in revenue. Prediction markets are pricing a 74% probability that Tesla beats, and the recent operating trend supports that positioning.
Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3592 estimate, a 14.14% beat, with revenue of $22.39 billion, up 15.78% year-over-year. Three supporting data points reinforce the Q2 case:
Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2% YoY, powered by lower material costs and higher ASPs. Active FSD subscriptions reached 1.28 million, up 51% YoY, feeding a 42% YoY jump in Services & Other revenue to $3.75 billion. Operating income surged 135.84% YoY and free cash flow rose 117.47%, with cash on the balance sheet climbing to $44.74 billion. Jim Cramer framed the setup on Mad Money earlier this year, noting that “consensus estimates for Tesla for 2026 and 2027 indicate that the analysts and investors do in fact expect sales and earnings to start growing again, both this year and next year”. Six new production lines ramping in 2026, plus driverless Robotaxi launches in Dallas and Houston and EU FSD approval in the Netherlands, layer optionality on top of the core margin story.
The Stock Looks Attractive at Current Levels Tesla carries a trailing P/E of 375, a rich multiple that is fully justified only if the AI, autonomy, and Optimus platforms translate into the profit acceleration management has flagged. On a forward basis, the 247Wall St. model implies a P/E of 208 against a forward EPS of $2.44, a premium to the market that is anchored by positive earnings momentum and mega-cap balance sheet firepower.
The 12-month consensus price target sits at $425.22, backed by 23 Buy ratings, 18 Holds, and 6 Sells. That target implies meaningful upside from the current $376.88 level, and the 247Wall St. bull case pushes to $487.90 over the next 12 months. Tesla is beaten down, tonight’s earnings report is the catalyst, and the upside case to $425 remains fully intact.
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Tesla is set to announce second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, three weeks after reporting a 25% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries.
Here's what Wall Street expects, according to estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 51 cents expectedRevenue: $25.71 billion expectedTesla's earnings report lands in the midst of a steep decline in its stock price, which is down about 10% this month and 16% for the year. That slide has coincided with a drop in SpaceX, Elon Musk's other trillion-dollar company, which held a record market debut in June and has lost almost 40% of its value since its peak close.
For Tesla, the dip has come despite signs of a rebound in its core auto business. In early July, the company reported vehicle deliveries that topped 480,000, exceeding exceeding analysts' expectations.
Tesla is trying to recover from consecutive years of declining deliveries, largely due to competition from Chinese automakers, including BYD, Nio and Xiaomi, that are offering affordable but high-tech EVs in markets beyond the U.S. Some car buyers have boycotted Tesla in response to Musk's incendiary political rhetoric and work with the Trump administration.
Soaring gas prices resulting from the U.S. war in Iran boosted Tesla sales in the first half of the year, with European car buyers purchasing more EVs.
In the second-quarter, Tesla started selling lower-cost versions of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, and made its premium driver assistance system, marketed as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the U.S., available in some European markets.
But Musk has shifted the focus of the company away from vehicle sales and toward its driverless Robotaxi service, ramping production of the company's driverless Cybercab, and remaking older factory lines in Fremont, California, to start manufacturing Optimus humanoid robots. He's promised shareholders and fans an AI-powered robot that will be able to step in as a babysitter, factory worker or world-class surgeon.
"I think Optimus will be our biggest product, not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever," Musk said on the company's last earnings call in April.
Paul Miller, an analyst at Forrester, told CNBC in an email that Tesla leadership has made "plenty of big claims about autonomous mobility and physical AI over the years," but missed on some "bolder bets."
Musk told investors in 2019 that there would be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road by 2020. Last year, he said the company's autonomous ride-hailing services would cover "probably half the population of the U.S." by the end of 2025. And at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Musk said Tesla Robotaxis would be "very, very widespread" domestically by the end of this year, a target that remains far off.
In robotaxis, Tesla is way behind Alphabet's Waymo in the U.S. and Baidu's Apollo Go in China. And in the humanoid robot market, where Tesla is still developing its product, the company faces competition from companies including China's Unitree, Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Apptronik and London-based startup Humanoid.
On Wednesday's conference call, investors will be looking for updates on robotics and driverless technology, and how Musk expects Tesla and SpaceX to work together, including on Terafab, a massive chip factory the companies plan to jointly build and run with Intel in Texas.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports second-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and the numbers investors already have in hand tell a split story: a blowout on deliveries, a question mark on spending.
The electric vehicle maker posted 480,126 deliveries and 451,758 vehicles produced for the quarter, comfortably ahead of the roughly 406,600 Wall Street had penciled in, according to StreetAccount. That marks a 25% jump from a year ago, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for 467,762 of the total.
The read-through: Tesla likely added about 95 basis points of global BEV market share, with its US share climbing 50 basis points to 46.1%.
The bigger debate on the call is likely to center on what Tesla is doing with its money, and its robots. The company set aside a $25 billion capital budget for 2026 to fund AI infrastructure and Optimus development, a spending pace analysts expect to push free cash flow to roughly negative $3.25 billion for the quarter.
Bank of America, which reiterated its Buy rating and $460 price target, argues the payoff is coming: robotaxi service now runs in five markets after a July 3 launch in Miami, the Texas fleet has swelled past 175 vehicles, and a June pricing study found Tesla undercutting Waymo, Uber and Lyft by 21% in San Francisco, albeit with wait times three to four times longer, a sign demand is outrunning supply.
Optimus remains the wildcard. Tesla is targeting initial Fremont production for late July or August, alongside a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Bank of America penciling in a slow ramp before humanoid shipments hit meaningful scale later in the decade.
Not everyone is convinced the money is moving fast enough. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, points out that Tesla has spent only about $2.5 billion of its $25 billion budget so far this year, despite being more than halfway through it.
"That raises questions about potential underspending on AI, autonomous driving and humanoid robots, the very ambitions that continue to underpin Tesla's valuation, given that its automotive business remains under pressure from Elon Musk's political controversies and intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers," she said.
That tension, strong deliveries against unproven bets, is what tonight's report will need to resolve.
Shares were flat Wednesday heading into the release.
Noah Hamman sets the stage for Tesla's (TSLA) earnings after Wednesday's closing bell. His biggest point of focus: EV sales, which he believes will show growth thanks to international markets.
Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC raised its stake in shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report) by 1,638.3% in the first quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 9,352 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock after buying an additional 8,814 shares during the quarter. Tesla comprises about 0.9% of Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 28th biggest holding. Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC’s holdings in Tesla were worth $3,477,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Several other hedge funds have also added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Networth Advisors LLC purchased a new position in shares of Tesla in the 4th quarter worth about $26,000. Chapman Financial Group LLC purchased a new stake in Tesla during the 2nd quarter valued at about $26,000. Davidson Capital Management Inc. increased its stake in Tesla by 79.4% during the 4th quarter. Davidson Capital Management Inc. now owns 61 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $27,000 after purchasing an additional 27 shares in the last quarter. Friedenthal Financial raised its holdings in Tesla by 66.7% in the first quarter. Friedenthal Financial now owns 75 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $28,000 after buying an additional 30 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Prism Advisors Inc. purchased a new position in Tesla in the fourth quarter worth about $30,000. 66.20% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.
Tesla News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Tesla this week:
Positive Sentiment: Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, its best quarter in two years, which gives bulls confidence that demand improved heading into earnings. Positive Sentiment: Options markets are pricing in a large earnings move, suggesting traders expect a volatile reaction and are actively betting on a meaningful catalyst from the report. Positive Sentiment: Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa ahead of earnings, reinforcing investor hopes that the company is making progress beyond its core auto business. Article Title Positive Sentiment: Investors are looking for updates on FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus, and management teasing new software features and AI-driven tools is helping keep the growth story alive. Article Title Neutral Sentiment: Wall Street expects another quarter of revenue and earnings growth, but many analysts say the bar is high and that the stock may react more to guidance than to the headline numbers. Neutral Sentiment: Broader market news is also supportive, with tech stocks and the Nasdaq rallying ahead of Big Tech earnings, which may be helping Tesla participate in the rebound. Article Title Negative Sentiment: Investors remain focused on Tesla’s heavy spending on AI, robotaxis, and robotics, with reports warning that cash burn could rise and pressure near-term profitability. Negative Sentiment: Some commentary says Tesla’s valuation is still stretched and that the company must deliver more than strong EV sales to justify its premium multiple. Negative Sentiment: Competitor chatter and cautious analyst notes are tempering enthusiasm, including concerns about rising EV competition and whether current products can sustain Tesla’s growth narrative. Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of research firms have recently commented on TSLA. BTIG Research cut shares of Tesla to a “neutral” rating in a report on Friday, June 5th. President Capital upped their price objective on Tesla from $424.00 to $428.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, April 27th. Oppenheimer reiterated a “market perform” rating on shares of Tesla in a research note on Thursday, June 11th. Barclays boosted their price target on Tesla from $360.00 to $370.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a research note on Tuesday, July 14th. Finally, Citigroup began coverage on Tesla in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twenty-one have assigned a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Tesla has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $408.07.
Check Out Our Latest Research Report on TSLA
Insider Activity In other news, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, April 30th. The shares were sold at an average price of $378.11, for a total value of $9,985,506.99. Following the transaction, the director owned 48,399 shares in the company, valued at $18,300,145.89. This represents a 35.30% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, May 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $450.00, for a total transaction of $1,350,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 18,106 shares in the company, valued at approximately $8,147,700. The trade was a 14.21% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Insiders sold 32,015 shares of company stock worth $12,383,640 over the last three months. Insiders own 19.90% of the company’s stock.
Tesla Price Performance NASDAQ TSLA opened at $378.93 on Wednesday. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.42 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 347.64, a PEG ratio of 12.40 and a beta of 1.80. Tesla, Inc. has a 1-year low of $297.82 and a 1-year high of $498.83. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, a current ratio of 2.04 and a quick ratio of 1.62. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $406.82 and its 200-day moving average price is $404.53.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, April 23rd. The electric vehicle producer reported $0.41 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.39 by $0.02. Tesla had a return on equity of 4.89% and a net margin of 3.95%.The company had revenue of $22.39 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $22.96 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted $0.27 earnings per share. Tesla’s revenue was up 15.8% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, equities analysts predict that Tesla, Inc. will post 1.34 earnings per share for the current year.
About Tesla (Free Report)
Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American company that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy generation and energy storage products. Founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla grew into a vertically integrated mobility and clean‑energy company with Elon Musk serving as its chief executive officer. The company’s stated mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, reflected in its combined focus on electric drivetrains, battery technology, renewable energy products and software.
Tesla’s automotive business includes a lineup of battery‑electric vehicles and related services.
Recommended Stories Five stocks we like better than Tesla Confidence Is Back, But Earnings Show the Consumer Is Being Picky AeroVironment’s Stock Is Down, But Drone Demand Is Taking Off 3M’s Redemption Arc: Can Q2 Earnings Change the Narrative? 3 Photonics Companies Making Quantum Tech Possible Want to see what other hedge funds are holding TSLA? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report).
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Tesla cars line up for inspection at the Tesla Gigafactory during a government‑organised media trip in Shanghai, China, April 14, 2026. REUTERS/Go Nakamura/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesBEIJING, July 22 (Reuters) - Shanghai authorities said on Wednesday it convened major automakers, dealer groups and internet platforms to reinforce compliance requirements as part of a campaign to regulate online information dissemination in the automotive sector.
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The meeting, organised Tuesday by several city authorities including cyberspace, commerce and market regulator, was attended by 15 major automakers.
These included SAIC Motor (600104.SS), opens new tab, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab, Xiaomi (1810.HK), opens new tab, Xpeng (9868.HK), opens new tab, Nio (9866.HK), opens new tab and Li Auto (2015.HK), opens new tab, as well as more than 80 dealer groups, a statement showed.
Internet platforms, including Bilibili (9626.HK), opens new tab and Xiaohongshu, were also summoned to the meeting.
In the meeting, Shanghai's market regulator clarified rules on pricing compliance covering manufacturing, pricing strategies and vehicle sales.
Authorities urged automakers and dealers to conduct self-inspections and resist improper online marketing practices, a statement from Shanghai's cyberspace administration said.
They also called on internet platforms to strengthen content reviews and handling of corporate infringement complaints, while pledging to step up rectification campaign and improve online information environment surrounding auto industry.
Reporting by Shi Bu and Liz Lee, Editing by Louise Heavens
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Stock Market Rally Defies Rising Oil, Bond Yields; Chips Lead As Seagate, Micron Make Bullish Moves Elon Musk's Tesla will release its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Earnings are expected to grow 32% to 53 cents a share from 40 cents in Q2 2025, according to FactSet. That would be the second consecutive quarter of EPS growth after contracting in every quarter last year. Analysts expect revenue of $26.4 billion, a 17.5% increase…
Short-sellers are increasing their bets against Tesla (TSLA, Financials), the electric car and energy firm that is heading into Wednesday's earnings release wit
Tesla shares are showing limited movement. What should traders watch with TSLA? Earnings Preview & HistoryTesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings today after the market closes. Analysts estimate EPS of 44 cents along with revenue of $25.24 billion. For the prior quarter, Tesla reported EPS of 41 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 30 cents by 36.67%. The company also posted revenue of $22.39 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $22.17 billion.
What To WatchInvestors will be watching automotive gross margin closely, since Tesla’s record 480,126 vehicle deliveries only matter if aggressive pricing hasn’t eaten into profitability — EPS estimates span a wide range from 27 cents to 74 cents. Commentary on the Cybercab rollout, Full Self-Driving adoption and Optimus production timing will also be closely tracked, given Tesla’s valuation increasingly hinges on those initiatives rather than core vehicle sales.
Below All Key Levels, With Momentum FadingAt $377.00, Tesla is trading 4.6% below its 20-day SMA ($395.00) and 7.8% below its 50-day SMA ($408.56), a setup that typically keeps the near-term trend pointed lower unless price can reclaim those levels. It’s also 9.5% below the 200-day SMA ($416.27), reinforcing that the longer-term trend is still under pressure.
MACD is the cleaner momentum read right now: it’s below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which points to fading upside pressure versus the prior upswing. In plain terms, when MACD sits under the signal line, rallies often struggle to follow through until momentum improves back above that baseline.
The moving-average structure is also a headwind, with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA (a "death cross" that occurred in April). That combination tends to shift trader focus toward selling strength rather than buying dips until the stock can start rebuilding above its intermediate trend lines.
Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number pivot area that sits above the major moving averages, where rebounds can stall Key Support: $368.50 — a nearby floor just below current levels where buyers previously stepped in Analyst Consensus & Recent ActionsThe stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $405.70. Recent analyst moves include:
GLJ Research: Sell (Maintains Target to $24.86) (July 21) Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $417.00) (July 14) Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $370.00) (July 14) Benzinga Edge RankingsBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Tesla, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
The Verdict: Tesla’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile with a premium valuation, while momentum remains only moderate. For longer-term bulls, the setup improves if the stock can reclaim key moving averages; for tactical traders, the $368.50 support and $433.00 resistance define the near-term risk range.
Tesla Shares Trade FlatTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 0.75% lower at $376.10, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Morning Brew Daily’s July segment framed the U.S. electric vehicle industry in stark terms. They argued that Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), once valued at $91 billion, is now worth just $2.87 billion, while Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) has fallen from a peak near $150 billion to roughly $25 billion. The guest analyst on the show argued that both pure-play startups are “one boardroom decision at another company away” from collapse, and that neither company is expected to turn cash flow positive before 2030. The numbers back the framing.
Lucid: A Saudi-Funded Life Raft Lucid closed at $7.36 on July 17, leaving the stock down 76.41% over the past year and 97.99% below its November 2021 level. Revenue is scaling. Losses are scaling faster. Q4 2025 revenue reached $522.73 million, while deliveries rose 72% year over year to 5,345 vehicles. The company reported a GAAP net loss of approximately $814 million and negative free cash flow of $1.24 billion for the quarter. For the full year 2025, revenue totaled $1.35 billion, while free cash flow was negative $3.8 billion.
Cost of revenue exceeded revenue in every quarter of 2025, highlighting a persistent gross-margin problem rather than merely a scale challenge. Cash and cash equivalents declined to $997.83 million at year-end, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund expanded Lucid’s term loan facility to approximately $2.0 billion. CEO Marc Winterhoff characterized 2025 in the Q4 8-K as a year of “execution and strategy adjustment.”
Rivian: Volkswagen, Uber, and the DOE Are the Backstop With Rivian, Q1 2026 revenue came in at $1.38 billion, while free cash flow was negative $1.08 billion. Cash declined from $4.81 billion in Q2 2025 to $2.85 billion in the latest reported period. Regulatory credit revenue fell from $299 million in Q4 2024 to $29 million in Q4 2025, reducing a previously meaningful source of high-margin income.
The company’s remaining lifelines are Volkswagen’s $1 billion equity infusion, Uber’s potential $1.25 billion commitment toward a 50,000-vehicle autonomous R2 fleet, and a $4.5 billion Department of Energy loan for its Georgia facility.
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Legacy Detroit: Ford and Stellantis Take the Write-Downs Ford (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) recorded $10.7 billion in Model e-related impairments and EV program cancellations in Q4 2025 and is guiding to a FY2026 Model e loss of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. CEO Jim Farley characterized the moves as “difficult but critical strategic decisions” intended to support Ford’s target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. Despite the EV restructuring, Ford’s stock is up 33.85% over the past year.
Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) took a larger hit, recording $25.41 billion in unusual charges in Q4 2025 and a $22.33 billion net loss for FY2025. CEO Antonio Filosa acknowledged in the company’s annual filing that the results reflected “the cost of overestimating the pace of the energy transition.”
Tesla: Dominant but Distracted Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains the segment leader, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.2 trillion. FY2025 revenue declined to $94.83 billion, while Q4 2025 deliveries fell 16% year over year to 418,227 vehicles. Prediction-market traders had assigned high odds that Tesla would not achieve certain near-term AI milestones, including a public California robotaxi launch and an Optimus release by year-end, reinforcing the show’s portrayal of a company shifting toward humanoid robotics and autonomy while its core vehicle business faces slowing growth.
The Affordability Hail Mary U.S. EV sales are up 15% year to date, aided by gas prices that peaked at $4.50 per gallon in May before easing to $3.85 in mid-July. Ford’s planned $30,000 EV pickup and Bezos-backed Slate Auto’s $25,000 bare-bones truck signal the industry’s pivot toward affordability. Whether that reset arrives before more balance sheets buckle is the question hanging over the sector.
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After the market close on July 20, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.08%) said it will release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.
The report will coincide with SpaceX's first earnings call with analysts as a public company and comes at a pivotal time, with the stock hovering near its lowest point since its June 12 initial public offering (IPO). As of the market close on July 21, SpaceX shares are down 40% from its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16.
Here's what investors should look for when SpaceX reports and if the growth stock is a buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Welcome to the public stage Aug. 4 will be Elon Musk's first earnings call as chief executive officer of a company that isn't Tesla (TSLA +2.53%). Investors should tune in to see how the earnings call is conducted, whether its format differs from Tesla's, and whether it leans more on SpaceX's other executives than on Musk.
It would also be worth paying attention to how SpaceX releases supplemental materials, whether it includes useful information in its presentation decks and earnings release, or whether investors will need to dig for details in its quarterly 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
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SpaceX's Model 3 moment Since 2023, SpaceX has been responsible for launching more than 80% of the world's mass put into orbit. The bulk of that mass has come from SpaceX's Starlink network of low earth orbit broadband and mobile satellites.
With 9,600 Starlink satellites in orbit as of March 31 and 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, Starlink is instrumental to SpaceX's revenue and free cash flow growth. SpaceX has a mix of consumer and enterprise solutions. As it has added more customers, its revenue per user has declined. So investors should tune in to SpaceX's plans to expand Starlink and whether its pricing model will change as it improves connectivity.
In its May 20 Form S-1 IPO filing with the SEC, SpaceX said it expects to begin deploying its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites on Starship launchers in the second half of 2026, and it is on schedule to do so. SpaceX planned to launch its 13th Starship test flight on July 16 but scrubbed it and rescheduled it for July 23. Part of the payload includes 20 Starlink V3 satellites.
Compared to V2 satellites, V3 will offer a 10-fold improvement in downlink capacity and a 22-fold increase in uplink capacity -- adding to Starlink's competitive advantages.
All told, Starlink could prove to be as important to SpaceX as the Model 3 was to Tesla. The Model 3 provided a high-volume electric vehicle at a competitive price, vaulting Tesla from a struggling company to a cash cow. Without Model 3, Tesla would have lacked the resources needed to expand its robotaxi fleet and the Optimus line of humanoid robots.
AI satellites Scaling Starlink is a bold endeavor in and of itself. But SpaceX has far more ambitious plans, namely, deploying millions of artificial intelligence (AI) compute satellites in space.
SpaceX's February 2026 acquisition of xAI is instrumental in its AI compute constellation plans because it effectively gives SpaceX a major internal customer and a sandbox for testing satellite performance.
What's more, SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla are collaborating on the Terafab facility in Texas to mass-produce AI chips, enabling these companies to secure their own compute rather than relying on other suppliers. SpaceX is also building a factory of more than 11-million-square feet in Texas called Gigafactory, which will handle end-to-end production of AI satellites -- from solar panels to the AI compute modules.
These projects will be incredibly costly, take years to scale, and have no clear timeline for profitability. SpaceX's earnings call should provide investors with updates on these projects.
A potential merger with Tesla With SpaceX now public, some folks are speculating that it's only a matter of time before Tesla and SpaceX attempt to merge. After all, SpaceX bought xAI even though there were several valid reasons Tesla could have bought it instead. Tesla is a major customer of xAI, with xAI playing a role in Tesla's robotics, automotive vehicles, and energy storage projects.
A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would make Terafab a unified project under one umbrella rather than a partnership. And Tesla may be able to assist SpaceX with its energy storage needs.
Investors will likely be looking for insight on the SpaceX earnings call about its considerations for a merger with Tesla or why it may downplay merger speculation. Even if SpaceX and Tesla shareholders were vote to approve a merger, it would still face intense regulatory scrutiny.
SpaceX has a lot to prove Aug. 4 also is a critical day for SpaceX investors because it opens the door to a major share unlocking just two days later, letting early investors who were barred from selling after the IPO dispose of shares on public markets.
So far, SpaceX has been a tale of insatiable investor euphoria that briefly made it worth more than Amazon and Microsoft, only to have it fall as investors questioned its viability and path to profitability.
SpaceX has done an excellent job outlining a roadmap that features bold plans for AI compute satellites, lunar economies, colonies on Mars, and interplanetary travel. But SpaceX must fill the gaps in that roadmap before the stock becomes a reasonable buy for long-term investors.
Po včerejším růst na Wall Street (index SP500 ++0,9 %) nyní zámořské futures kontrakty ztrácí -0,3 %. Evropa sice včera nakonec uzavírala také v kladných úrovních, ale se skromnějšími zisky. Středeční ráno lze dle indikací čekat v regionu opět nevýrazné. Investoři sledují vývoj na komoditních trzích, cena ropy Brent se obchoduje nad 92 USD za barel (+2 %). Na mírové rozhovory USA s Íránem to zatím nevypadá. Růst cen ropy tak může znovu rozdmýchat obavy z inflace. Zlato získalo +1,5 % a obchoduje se na nejvyšší úrovní za 2 týdny, když mu pomáhá růst napětí na Blízkém východě. Dnes po zavření trhu budou reportovat firmy Tesla a Alphabet. Zisky společnosti Alphabet budou důležité pro měření nálady na trhu. Pozornost se bude upírat také na farmaceutické společnosti poté, co Trump oznámil plány na zavedení 100 % cla na generické léky do USA. Banco Santander vykázala zisk nad odhady. Praha včera rostla, dařilo se Erste i CSG. Na maximech, kde se obchodoval před dividendou se zvedl ČEZ. Vzhledem k vyšším cenám komodit by se ale mohli postupně na bankách objevovat prodejci.
Key Takeaways Analysts expect Tesla to report Q2 EPS of $0.50.The options market is implying a 6% post-EPS move.Energy and future tech timelines will be important clues for investors to observe. Tesla Q2 EarningsZacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ) will report earnings on second quarter earnings results on Wednesday, July 22, after the equity market close. Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates predict that Tesla will earn $0.50 for Q2, up from the $0.41 the company earning in Q1.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla’s Recent EPS HistoryTesla’s recent earnings track record has been spotty to say the least. The EV maker has missed Zacks Consensus Estimates in 6 of the past 10 quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nevertheless, Tesla is exhibiting some recent signs of a turn around. Over the past two quarters Tesla has beaten Wall Street estimates by double digits and has an average EPS surprise of 5.48% over the past four.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TSLA Implied Post-EPS MoveThe options market is currently pricing in a rather subdued post-EPS move of +/- $24 or 6%.
The Legacy EV Business: Volume vs. MarginsAlthough most investors own Tesla shares because they are betting on future products such as the Optimus humanoid robot and robotaxi, it’s electric vehicle business still comprises the lion’s share (~85%) of its total revenues. Last month, Tesla delivered a spectacular deliver beat when it reported ~480k vehicles for Q2. The 480K delivery number trounced Wall Street estimates of 406k and represented a 25% year-over-year increase.
However, it’s important that investors do not view the delivery number in a vacuum. Amid a sunsetting of the federal EV tax credits and a slowing EV market Tesla has offered generous promotional financing and has slashed prices in key markets such as China and Europe. The question for investors is “Will increased EV sales volumes supersede incentives or will deep discounts erode profit margins?”
Tesla EnergyTesla’s Energy business continues to be a consistent bright spot for the company. Deployments soared 40% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding its energy business. SunRun ((RUN - Free Report) ) and TSLA announced a 16GW distributed energy pact targeting utilities and data center operators. Additionally, Tesla brough the largest lithium refinery in the U.S. online earlier this year. While growth will likely continue, investors will be watching to see if CAPEX stabilizes in this segment.
Future Product TimelinesTesla CEO Elon Musk has a reputation for setting extremely aggressive (and sometimes unrealistic) timelines. While these optimistic timelines can lead to increased productivity, they have been a thorn in the side of Wall Street investors, who are often hyper focused on quarterly results as opposed to long-term results. As a result, investors will want to see progress on Tesla’s Robotaxi & Cybercab commercialization, its FSD adoption rates, and Optimus and AI Compute expansion.
Bottom Line
Tesla’s Q2 EPS will answer important questions about the company’s legacy EV business, energy growth, and future product timelines. If strong delivery volumes can offset incentives and Elon Musk delivers tangible updates on autonomous tech, Tesla shares could finally get the spark they need.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.
Tesla Q2 Earnings EstimatesAnalysts expect Tesla to report second-quarter revenue of $25.24 billion, up from $22.50 billion in last year’s second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in four straight quarters and in five of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Tesla to report second-quarter earnings per share of 44 cents, up from 40 cents per share in last year’s second quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in four of the last 10 quarters overall.
What Experts Are SayingTesla investors are looking for second-quarter results to show signs of improvement with the stock one of the worst performing Magnificent Seven stocks in 2026, Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
"Shareholders are hopeful this quarter will be the one that helps turn things around. Shares have traded lower after three of the last four reports with an average loss of -5% over that time," Woods said.
The market expert says AI will be the top thing on the mind of Tesla investors for the earnings report.
"Will there be updates surrounding robotaxis, Full Self-Driving, Cybercab production, and the Optimus robot as Telsa continues its transition from an automaker to an AI and robotics story?"
For the automotive part of the business, Woods said investors should watch margins closely to see if they stabilize after pricing pressure in recent quarters and to see if the core segment can help produce the cash needed to fund growth initiatives.
Woods said one negative reaction to the earnings report could send the stock back to April lows around $340. If investors react positively, a nice pop could take shares to the resistance at the 200-day moving average around $417, Woods added.
"A strong rebound may hit major resistance near $420. Seeing it is one of Elon Musk’s favorite numbers, it may need to eclipse this mark before the strongest bullish case can be made to own shares."
Deepwater Management Managing Partner Gene Munster says investors will be watching for higher capex, automotive gross margins, an update on the robotaxi rollout and an update on the Cybercab production ramp.
"The bottom line is the long-term growth story is intact," Munster said in a blog post.
The market expert doesn’t expect any big updates on robotaxis, Cybercab, FSD or Optimus. Munster said he expects one minor update to be that Cybercab production ramp to shift from late 2026 to the first half of 2027.
"I believe Elon will reiterate that everything is moving in the right direction."
Here are recent analyst ratings on Tesla stock and their price targets:
GLJ Research: Reiterated Sell rating, price target $24.86 Morgan Stanley: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $415 to $417 Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $360 to $370 Wells Fargo: Maintained Underweight rating, raised price target from $125 to $130 Key Items to WatchTesla already reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year. The total beat a Street estimate of 406,000.
Munster previously attributed some of the outperformance to higher gas prices and increased demand for electric vehicles. Investors and analysts will be watching to see if management says this was the case and if it bodes well for future quarters with ongoing Middle East tension.
Munster’s guess that the Cybercab production ramp could be pushed back is an item to watch, as it could spook investors. Tesla previously said it was on track for "this year" for both Cybercab and Tesla Semi.
Investors also want an update on Optimus, which is said to be one of the company’s biggest catalysts ever and the reason why Tesla stopped selling several vehicle models to get factories ready for production.
Tesla Stock Price ActionTesla stock was up 2.5% to $378.93 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.82. Tesla stock is down 13.3% year-to-date in 2026, with shares near a three-month low.
Photo: TY Lim / Shutterstock
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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) said it will roll out a new software update this summer that lets its Grok AI assistant make phone calls, play music, adjust cabin climate and open the glovebox by voice command.
The update also allows drivers to view and share self-driving statistics through Tesla's mobile app, and gives Navigation the ability to suggest routine destinations and prioritize routes drivers have previously taken.
Other features include the ability to set a desired arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear display controls from the front screen. Tesla's in-car Caraoke feature will add scoring and saved high scores.
The company also plans to add Supercharger name search, queue controls for Apple Music, adjustable zoom for the self-driving visualization display, browser camera and microphone support, and new animations for the Model 3 and Model Y.
Image Credits:Tim Goessman / Bloomberg / Getty Images Tesla has brought an unspecified number of its unsupervised Model Y SUVs to Orlando and Tampa, just one day ahead of the company’s scheduled second-quarter earnings call. That marks the third city in Florida where Tesla is trialing its nascent robotaxi service, following a small launch in Miami a few weeks ago.
The two new cities appear to have fairly small operational areas, and Tesla did not offer any further details about the launch. As some fans have noticed, Tesla announced autonomous fleets in Dallas and Houston before its first-quarter earnings release but has yet to scale those operations. The company disbanded its press office years ago.
Tesla has taken a far slower approach to standing up a commercial robotaxi service than it has promised investors. CEO Elon Musk, for instance, said repeatedly that Tesla’s robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025.
Musk offered more metered comments earlier this year on Tesla’s first-quarter call. But the company may get a big lift from the Trump administration, as last month the Department of Transportation proposed a rule change that would no longer require brake pedals be built into cars that are designed to be autonomous. If adopted, that could clear the way for Tesla to try and deploy the dozens of two-seater Cybercabs that it has been staging in cities across the country.
Tesla TSLA shares are inching higher ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings scheduled to be released after market close on Wednesday, July 22nd.
Consensus is for the EV specialist to post a nearly 15% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.31 on revenue of at least $25.7 billion – which would represent a 16% jump from last year.
While Tesla stock remains down significantly versus the start of 2026, options pricing suggests it’s poised to reclaim some of that loss after the Q2 print this week.
Heading into Tesla’s quarterly earnings, the put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring July 24th sits at 0.54, indicating a strong bullish skew.
According to Barchart, the upper price on those contracts sits at just over $401 currently, signaling potential for a 5.36% rally in TSLA shares through the end of this week.
Much of the derivatives market’s confidence may be traced back to Tesla’s strong delivery report.
Earlier this month, billionaire Elon Musk’s company said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in its fiscal Q2, up 25% versus the same quarter of 2025.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald seem to agree with options traders on Tesla shares.
In a note to clients this week, they maintained an Overweight rating on the EV firm and a strongly bullish $510 price target.
Their positive view is rooted in its high-margin Cybercab business.
“We believe TSLA will have the ability to scale rapidly following commercialization (despite the delayed expansion) and capture meaningful market share,” the firm’s analysts wrote.
Amidst accelerating milestones for the Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robots, Cantor Fitzgerald remains constructive on Tesla's ability to unlock recurring software economics as autonomy commercializes.
From a technical perspective, the EV stock is currently trading a little under its 20-day MA – with a decisive break above the $395 level expected to boost upward momentum in the near-term.
While top-line delivery growth provides a solid backdrop, Street’s post-earnings focus will quickly shift to automotive gross margins and capital spending efficiency.
Investors are eager to see if manufacturing scale, operational discipline, and localized supply chain efficiencies can offset pricing pressures and raw material cost headwinds, protecting operational profitability.
Beyond core auto metrics, management’s commentary on the earnings call regarding real-world AI investments – specifically concrete timelines for Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansion and scaling capital expenditure for data center compute – will likely act as a catalyst.
A decisive beat on core margins paired with confident guidance on physical AI infrastructure could give TSLA stock the momentum needed to clear technical resistance levels.
Heading into the earnings release, Wall Street remains bullish on Tesla Inc, with a “Moderate Buy” rating coupled with a $418 mean price target.
At $369.57, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) looks overvalued, because the multiple asks investors to underwrite three uninvented businesses while the core auto operation decelerates. With Q2 results imminent, the gap between narrative and accounting has rarely been wider.
Tesla still earns most of its money making electric vehicles, with a growing energy storage arm and fast-scaling services including Full Self-Driving subscriptions. The story running the stock, however, is Robotaxi, Optimus, and in-house AI silicon. Shares are down 17.82% year to date and sit below both the 50-day ($409.80) and 200-day ($417.05) moving averages, well off the 52-week high of $498.83.
Why the Margin Recovery Could Reignite the Story Q1 2026 delivered the operational turn bulls have been waiting for. EPS came in at $0.41 versus $0.3592 expected, revenue grew 15.78% year over year, and automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2%. Services revenue jumped 42%, and FSD paid subscribers reached roughly 1.3 million, up 51% year over year.
The balance sheet remains a fortress at $44.7 billion in cash against modest debt, and prediction markets assign an 80% probability of another earnings beat on July 22. Management believes Optimus will be “the biggest product ever”, and if even a fraction of that optionality clears, today’s price will look cheap.
Why the Accounting Refuses to Justify the Multiple Strip out the speculative narratives and the fundamentals are those of an increasingly commoditized auto manufacturer. FY2025 net income fell 46.79%, Q4 deliveries dropped 16% to 418,227 units, and regulatory credits keep shrinking. Operating expenses grew 37% year over year in Q1 on AI spend and CEO stock-based comp.
Valuation sits at 346 trailing P/E and 167 forward P/E, with a PEG of 5 and EV/EBITDA of 116. Prediction markets price Optimus release by year-end at just 16%, California robotaxi at 18.5%, and Robovan orders at 7%. CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided to over $25 billion of CapEx and negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.
Why Patience Might Beat Conviction Either Way The Hold argument rests on catalyst density. Q2 deliveries returned to growth, an EU FSD expansion is progressing, and AI5 tape-out cleared in April. Analyst consensus splits 23 Buy/Strong Buy, 18 Hold, and 6 Sell/Strong Sell across 47 shops, defining an unresolved debate.
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Musk conceded Optimus production this year is “impossible to predict” and Robotaxi revenue will not be “super material this year”. Waiting one or two prints for hard Optimus unit economics, Robotaxi safety data, and clarity on AI CapEx payback lets investors avoid paying peak narrative premium ahead of proof.
What the Tape and the Street Actually Say Shares currently trade near $369.57 against an average analyst price target of $425.22, implying roughly 15% upside from a pool of 47 analysts. Targets are one data point among many.
Year to date, TSLA is down 17.82% while the S&P 500 is up 8.82%. Over one year, TSLA is up 12.11% versus 18.25% for the index. Prediction markets give the stock only a 48% chance of closing July above $370.
Why $370 Looks Stretched At $370, Tesla is a Sell.
The path to further downside is straightforward. Consensus already models roughly $27.6 billion in Q2 revenue and $1.27 billion in net income, and CapEx guidance points to negative free cash flow into 2027. If Q2 confirms an earnings beat but defers Optimus unit economics and California robotaxi timing, the multiple has room to compress toward the forward P/E of 167, still egregious but painful from here.
Likely triggers over the next two quarters are further regulatory credit erosion, a fifth consecutive quarter of operating expense growth above 30%, and continued inventory build from the current 27 days of supply. A hard Optimus production milestone, an approved California robotaxi permit, or genuine FSD margin disclosure would invalidate the thesis.
The core problem is that owners at $370 are paying an enterprise software multiple for a business currently generating auto-manufacturer margins, and Musk himself will not commit to when that changes. At current levels, the risk/reward skews unfavorably.
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Options traders are betting Tesla could see its biggest post-earnings move in a year when the electric auto giant reports on Wednesday after the bell.
Current prices for at-the-money puts and calls are implying a 5.76% move, which is the largest implied move since traders priced in a 6% swing back in October 2025. It would be the largest realized move since last July. On Tuesday, options flow leaned bullish, with traders having bought 244,000 calls compared to 116,000 puts through midday, while calls accounted for more than two-thirds of total premium traded.
The top three most active contracts by volume in Tesla were calls, with the most premium being spent by traders in the 380-calls expiring Friday. Traders spent more than $15 million on those nearly at-the-money calls, which commanded around $11 per contract, meaning they would require a 3% move higher by the end of the week to become profitable.
While options traders are expecting a large move, Tesla's stock has historically experienced muted moves on earnings days. In fact, over the past four quarters, the stock has experienced a median move of just 3.5%, according to CBOE data.
Also, on the radar for Musk-centric traders will be SpaceX's first earnings report since last month's initial public offering. That potential wildcard for the market will occur on Aug. 4. The options market is currently implying a 12% move in either direction.
"If you want to be aggressive you could argue [Tesla is] hanging on support and take the long side, which I am longer term, but it's more or less been rangebound since the start of the year," Gianni Di Poce, instructor at TheoTrade, said by phone. "The whole SpaceX thing is weighing on it, people are trying to figure out which to own and if they're going to merge."
Following its historic June IPO, SpaceX shares raced toward a $2 trillion valuation. But the stock has since fallen sharply, and the company's valuation now stands just under $1.7 trillion, just ahead of Tesla's $1.4 trillion.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) heads into its Q2 2026 earnings report tomorrow as the undisputed laggard of the Magnificent 7. Shares are down 17.82% year to date, badly trailing every other name in the cohort. Our proprietary model says the setup is more constructive than the tape suggests.
Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for Tesla The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $428.08, implying 15.83% upside from the current $369.57 quote. Our recommendation is buy.
The rating reflects a re-rating pathway from expanding automotive margins, an accelerating Services and Other line, and imminent product catalysts in Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus. Q2 is the near-term trigger; the multi-year AI thesis is the structural driver.
Metric Value Current Price $369.57 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $428.08 Upside 15.83% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Why Tesla Has Been the Mag 7 Anchor in 2026 Tesla has slid 6.38% in the past week and 7.72% in the past month, sitting well below the 52-week high of $498.83 hit late last year.
In Q1 2026, Tesla reported revenue of $22.387 billion, up 15.78% YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3481 estimate, a 17.78% beat. Automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2% from a year earlier, and Services and Other revenue jumped 42% to $3.745 billion on 1.28 million FSD subscriptions. Q2 reports July 22 after the close.
The Case for the Bull Scenario Our bull scenario gets Tesla to $487.11 within twelve months, a 31.81% total return. Cybercab volume production at Giga Texas, Tesla Semi volume production, Megapack 3, and the Optimus Fremont line all hit in 2026. FSD subscriptions rose 51% YoY, and Netherlands approval opens the EU.
Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 77.5% probability of a Q2 EPS beat. On 7investing’s AI Investor Podcast, Simon Erickson framed a robotaxi-success DCF at $700 per share, arguing Tesla “can probably double again” if regulators cooperate.
What Could Go Wrong The bear scenario lands at $375.64, barely above today’s price. TSLA trades at 346 trailing earnings and 167 forward. Q1 flagged real headwinds: energy revenue fell 12% YoY, inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 22, regulatory credits are declining, and digital asset losses hit $222 million. Opex is up 37% YoY.
Bulls counter that opex growth reflects deliberate AI R&D and the CEO award SBC, and that $1.95 billion in quarterly R&D is the price of buying Optimus and Robotaxi optionality. Polymarket assigns just a 16% chance of an Optimus release by year-end, so expectations there are already reset lower.
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How Tesla Stacks Up Against GM and Rivian General Motors (NYSE:GM) is the traditional-auto counterpoint. GM trades at a P/E near 25 on $185 billion in 2025 revenue, with Q1 2026 EPS of $3.70 beating the $2.62 consensus. GM prints real cash today; Tesla is priced on cash it will earn a decade out. That contrast is why our 24/7 Wall St. price target applies a mega-cap dampener rather than pure growth multiples.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is the pure-play EV comp on the other extreme. Rivian’s Q1 2026 revenue was $1.381 billion on 10,365 deliveries, with negative adjusted EBITDA of -$472 million. Rivian has no P/E because it lacks earnings.
Between GM’s 25 P/E and Rivian’s negative one, Tesla’s 167 forward P/E reflects the market pricing a hybrid auto-plus-AI outcome. That framing makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $428.08 look reasonable.
The Setup Ahead of Q2 Earnings The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $428.08, the call is buy, and our confidence is 90%. The tipping factor is margin recovery: automotive gross margin snapping back to 21.1% resets the earnings math.
The bullish case strengthens if Q2 confirms the margin trajectory and FSD subscription growth holds above 40% YoY. The bearish case gains ground if energy revenue slips again and inventory days climb further.
Tesla Price Projection 2026 to 2030 Our base case implies a 9.94% annualized return to $593.66 by 2031.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $428 2027 $470 2028 $515 2029 $555 2030 $590 These projections assume Tesla executes on Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus ramps while sustaining FSD adoption. Meaningful upside or downside could emerge from Robotaxi geographic expansion or delayed Optimus commercialization.
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HomeIndustriesAutomobilesEarnings OutlookEarnings OutlookWall Street wants to see whether Tesla can deliver on its robotaxi and Optimus plansJuly 21, 2026, 10:32 a.m. ET
Tesla’s earnings reports have increasingly been more about big themes than about the numbers themselves.
The carmaker already disclosed that it delivered 480,126 electric vehicles to customers between April and June, with those numbers coming in well ahead of expectations. Tesla also deployed 13.5 gigawatts of energy-storage products, below expectations but an improvement over the previous quarter.
Tesla TSLA is set to report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with investors expected to focus less on the company's financial results and more on Chief Executive Elon Musk's outlook for autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence.
Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings of about 54 cents per share on revenue of $27.4 billion for the second quarter, according to FactSet.
A year earlier, the company reported earnings of 40 cents per share on revenue of $22.5 billion.
Tesla shares rose around 3.7% on Tuesday ahead of the earnings release as investors positioned for what is expected to be a closely watched update on the company's long-term growth strategy.
The move today comes as Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa.
Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year before expanding to Dallas and Houston earlier this year and Miami this month.
The company has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco Bay Area.
Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets.
Musk has responded by saying the company is deliberately taking a cautious approach, arguing that rigorous safety testing—not demand or technology—is the primary constraint on faster deployment.
Analysts expect year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings following stronger vehicle deliveries during the quarter.
Tesla delivered about 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier.
Higher oil prices, buyer incentives, and reduced competition from traditional automakers following the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit in September contributed to the increase in sales.
Despite the anticipated improvement in Tesla's automotive business, analysts say the company's valuation is increasingly tied to its artificial intelligence initiatives rather than its core vehicle operations.
Robotaxis and Optimus remain key focusMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said investors are likely to pay closer attention to updates on Tesla's robotaxi service and Optimus humanoid robot than to the company's quarterly financial performance.
“Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock,” Percoco wrote in a preview note.
“We expect constructive updates across both, though likely not enough to drive a decisive [change in valuation].”
Investors are expected to seek additional details on the pace of the service's expansion.
Market participants are also awaiting further information on the third generation of Optimus, Musk's humanoid robot project, which he has described as having the potential to become one of the company's largest products.
While neither robotaxis nor Optimus currently contribute meaningfully to Tesla's earnings, analysts continue to view both businesses as central to the company's long-term investment case.
Investors are also expected to monitor growth in Tesla's Full Self-Driving subscription business, which currently has 1.3 million subscribers.
Tesla enters the earnings report after recently posting second-quarter sales and delivery figures that exceeded Wall Street expectations.
However, the stock declined following the delivery report, suggesting investors had already priced in strong operating performance.
The market's reaction indicates that exceeding delivery estimates has become the minimum expectation, raising the bar for the earnings release.
Analysts also noted that Tesla's premium valuation increasingly depends on future businesses such as autonomous driving and humanoid robotics rather than near-term automotive earnings.
At the same time, investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence has shifted toward companies generating immediate financial returns from AI infrastructure, while software- and autonomy-focused businesses have attracted comparatively less attention.
Speculation surrounding potential corporate actions involving SpaceX has also circulated in recent months.
Key Takeaways A TSLA-SPCX merger could unite EVs, AI, robotics, satellites, energy and commercial spaceflight.Shared AI, manufacturing and Starlink capabilities could cut costs and expand connected services.Governance, regulation, valuation and capital risks make collaboration more likely than a merger. Rumors of a potential merger between Tesla, Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) have periodically surfaced over the years, fueled by the companies' shared founder, Elon Musk, and their increasingly complementary technology portfolios. While there has been no official indication that such a transaction is under consideration, industry grapevines are abuzz about the possible creation of a next-generation technology powerhouse.
A merger would combine Tesla's leadership in electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics with SpaceX's dominance in reusable launch vehicles, satellite communications and space infrastructure. The rationale appears compelling on paper, but the financial, governance and regulatory challenges could be equally formidable.
So, what could such a combination mean for investors?
AI and Robotics Could Be the Biggest SynergyBoth Tesla and SpaceX have made AI central to their long-term growth strategies. Tesla is leveraging AI to advance Full Self-Driving, Optimus humanoid robots and autonomous manufacturing, while SpaceX relies heavily on AI-driven navigation, autonomous docking and mission-critical flight systems. A combined entity could consolidate AI research, accelerate product development and reduce duplication in engineering resources. The companies already share technical talent and a culture focused on rapid innovation, making collaboration a natural extension of their existing relationship.
Manufacturing Expertise Could Create EfficienciesTesla has built one of the world's most sophisticated manufacturing operations through automation, vertical integration and continuous process improvements. SpaceX has similarly transformed rocket production by designing reusable launch systems and rapidly scaling Starship manufacturing. Combining expertise in advanced materials, battery technology, factory automation and supply chain management could drive operational efficiencies across both businesses while lowering development costs.
Starlink Could Strengthen Tesla's Connected EcosystemOne of the most tangible opportunities lies in integrating SpaceX's Starlink satellite network with Tesla's expanding ecosystem. Global satellite connectivity could improve vehicle communications in remote areas, enhance autonomous driving capabilities where cellular coverage is limited and support Tesla Energy's distributed power infrastructure. Such integration could also create new subscription-based software and connectivity revenue streams, further diversifying Tesla's business model.
Greater Revenue DiversificationTesla's financial performance remains closely tied to EV demand and energy storage deployments. SpaceX, on the other hand, generates revenues from launch services, Starlink subscriptions and government contracts. A combined company would be less dependent on a single end market, potentially creating a more balanced revenue mix and reducing cyclicality over the long term.
Why Investors Should Remain CautiousDespite the strategic appeal, several hurdles could make such a transaction difficult to execute.
Capital Allocation ConcernsTesla generates significant operating cash flow, while SpaceX continues investing aggressively in Starship and other capital-intensive initiatives that may take years to generate meaningful returns. Long-duration space exploration projects carry substantial execution risks.
Government Relationships Could Complicate the DealSpaceX serves as a critical contractor for NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense and several national security agencies. This could introduce additional disclosure requirements and regulatory oversight that may complicate those relationships. Government agencies may also scrutinize any corporate restructuring involving important aerospace assets.
Governance Risks Would IncreaseElon Musk already leads multiple high-profile companies. Combining Tesla and SpaceX would create one of the world's largest and most complex technology enterprises, spanning automotive manufacturing, AI, robotics, satellite communications, energy storage and space transportation. Investors would likely seek stronger corporate governance, clearer capital allocation priorities and enhanced board oversight to ensure balanced decision-making across such diverse businesses.
Investment TakeawayA Tesla-SpaceX merger would undoubtedly capture investors' attention, creating an unprecedented technology company spanning EVs, AI, robotics, satellite communications, renewable energy and commercial spaceflight.
The potential benefits—including stronger AI capabilities, manufacturing efficiencies, diversified revenue streams and broader technology integration—are compelling. However, investors should not overlook the significant challenges, including valuation complexity, governance concerns, regulatory scrutiny and competing capital allocation priorities.
For now, a full-scale merger appears less likely than continued collaboration. Investors may ultimately see greater value created through expanded partnerships, technology sharing and joint innovation initiatives rather than a formal corporate combination. Until there is tangible evidence of merger discussions, investors should treat industry speculation with caution while focusing on developments that deepen operational ties between Tesla and SpaceX.
Both Tesla and SpaceX carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) said it will roll out a new software update this summer that lets its Grok AI assistant make phone calls, play music, adjust cabin climate and open the glovebox by voice command.
The update also allows drivers to view and share self-driving statistics through Tesla's mobile app, and gives Navigation the ability to suggest routine destinations and prioritize routes drivers have previously taken.
Other features include the ability to set a desired arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear display controls from the front screen. Tesla's in-car Caraoke feature will add scoring and saved high scores.
The company also plans to add Supercharger name search, queue controls for Apple Music, adjustable zoom for the self-driving visualization display, browser camera and microphone support, and new animations for the Model 3 and Model Y.
Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft cut its holdings in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report) by 61.1% in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 2,655 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock after selling 4,170 shares during the period. Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft’s holdings in Tesla were worth $987,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of the stock. Networth Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in Tesla during the 4th quarter valued at about $26,000. Chapman Financial Group LLC purchased a new position in Tesla in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $26,000. Davidson Capital Management Inc. increased its stake in Tesla by 79.4% in the 4th quarter. Davidson Capital Management Inc. now owns 61 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $27,000 after purchasing an additional 27 shares during the period. Friedenthal Financial lifted its position in Tesla by 66.7% in the first quarter. Friedenthal Financial now owns 75 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $28,000 after purchasing an additional 30 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Prism Advisors Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of Tesla during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $30,000. 66.20% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.
Insiders Place Their Bets In other Tesla news, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, May 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $450.00, for a total value of $1,350,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer owned 18,106 shares in the company, valued at approximately $8,147,700. This represents a 14.21% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this link. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, April 30th. The shares were sold at an average price of $378.11, for a total value of $9,985,506.99. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 48,399 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $18,300,145.89. This represents a 35.30% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last quarter, insiders sold 32,015 shares of company stock valued at $12,383,640. 19.90% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.
Key Tesla News Here are the key news stories impacting Tesla this week:
Positive Sentiment: Analysts and strategists still see upside catalysts from Tesla’s Q2 report, especially around robotaxi progress, Cybercab, Optimus, and other AI/autonomy updates that could support a higher valuation. This Analyst Bets On Tesla’s Robotaxi And Cybercab Businesses Ahead Of Q2 Results – Retail Sees Stock Climbing To $450 Positive Sentiment: Tesla’s delivery rebound and stronger-than-expected sales trends have improved sentiment into earnings, with some coverage saying a Q2 beat looks likely and that production growth in Germany could help margins and volume. Tesla’s Earnings Setup: Most of the Good News Is Already Out Positive Sentiment: Bank of America reportedly raised its Tesla forecasts ahead of earnings, reinforcing the view that results and near-term guidance could come in better than feared. Bank of America raises Tesla forecasts ahead of July 22 earnings Positive Sentiment: There are also reports that Tesla is planning a major production boost in Germany, which could support future output and help the company maintain global EV scale. Tesla plans for a major production boost at its plant in Germany Neutral Sentiment: Tesla investors are focused on key earnings questions around margins, AI spending, FSD subscriptions, and whether autonomy can justify the company’s premium valuation. Tesla investors share their most burning questions ahead of earnings Neutral Sentiment: The stock is also being viewed as a major volatility event into earnings, with traders expecting a sizable move but no clear consensus on direction. Here’s How Much Traders See Tesla Stock Moving After Earnings Negative Sentiment: Options traders are betting heavily against Tesla ahead of earnings, reflecting concern that expectations are too high and that the stock may be vulnerable if results disappoint. Options Traders Bet $550M Against Tesla Ahead Of Earnings Negative Sentiment: Several articles warn that Tesla’s AI4 hardware may already be falling behind and that the company’s valuation depends heavily on future autonomy gains, adding pressure if management does not deliver fresh upside. Tesla’s (TSLA) AI4 Hardware May Already Be Falling Behind Negative Sentiment: Competition remains a concern, with BYD’s strong EV deliveries and XPeng teasing a lower-priced rival to the Model Y, highlighting pressure on Tesla’s global dominance and pricing power. BYD Delivered 557,090 Battery-Electric Vehicles in Q2 2026. Here Is What That Means for Tesla’s Global Dominance. Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades TSLA has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Citigroup assumed coverage on shares of Tesla in a report on Thursday, July 9th. They issued a “market perform” rating on the stock. Glj Research reissued a “sell” rating on shares of Tesla in a research report on Friday, June 12th. Zacks Research raised shares of Tesla from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, April 28th. Royal Bank Of Canada boosted their price objective on shares of Tesla from $475.00 to $500.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. Finally, TD Cowen reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of Tesla in a research note on Monday, June 29th. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twenty-one have assigned a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $408.07.
Read Our Latest Analysis on Tesla
Tesla Stock Performance Tesla stock opened at $369.57 on Tuesday. Tesla, Inc. has a fifty-two week low of $297.82 and a fifty-two week high of $498.83. The stock’s 50 day simple moving average is $407.91 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $405.03. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 2.04. The stock has a market cap of $1.39 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 339.06, a PEG ratio of 13.08 and a beta of 1.80.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The electric vehicle producer reported $0.41 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.39 by $0.02. Tesla had a return on equity of 4.89% and a net margin of 3.95%.The company had revenue of $22.39 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $22.96 billion. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $0.27 EPS. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.8% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, analysts expect that Tesla, Inc. will post 1.34 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Tesla Profile (Free Report)
Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American company that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy generation and energy storage products. Founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla grew into a vertically integrated mobility and clean‑energy company with Elon Musk serving as its chief executive officer. The company’s stated mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, reflected in its combined focus on electric drivetrains, battery technology, renewable energy products and software.
Tesla’s automotive business includes a lineup of battery‑electric vehicles and related services.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Tesla The Ugliest Stocks in the Market Just Got a Very Expensive Vote of Confidence Is Domino’s Stock Serving Up a Buying Opportunity? A $1T Black Hole: SpaceX Eyes Pentagon AI to Break Free Why Gold Miners Could Be the Market’s Biggest Comeback Story Want to see what other hedge funds are holding TSLA? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report).
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A Tesla robotaxi drives on the street along South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, U.S., June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab on Tuesday expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, as the electric-vehicle maker races to prove that it can scale its autonomous ride-hailing business beyond its initial launch markets.
The move comes a day before Tesla reports second-quarter earnings, with Wall Street closely watching the progress on robotaxis, which underpin much of the company's valuation as CEO Elon Musk shifts focus toward artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
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Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year and expanded to Dallas and Houston earlier this year and Miami this month. The company has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco Bay Area.
Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets. In response, Musk has said the company was deliberately taking a cautious approach, and that rigorous safety testing was the main constraint to faster deployment of the service.
Unlike rivals such as Alphabet-owned (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo, which relies on lidar sensors, Tesla's robotaxi system uses cameras and AI-based software to navigate. Tesla plans to eventually deploy its purpose-built Cybercab vehicle, which does not have pedals or a steering wheel.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli
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Před výsledky za druhé čtvrtletí čelí Tesla otázkám ohledně své schopnosti plnit ambiciózní plány v oblasti umělé inteligence, autonomního řízení a robotiky. Společnost v letošním roce utratila jen zlomek plánovaných kapitálových výdajů, což zhoršuje důvěryhodnost růstového příběhu Tesly. V době, kdy technologičtí konkurenti investují do AI stovky miliard dolarů a kdy na trh vstoupila další Muskova firma, bude trh od Tesly chtít slyšet nejen další sliby, ale především vidět konkrétní důkazy o pokroku při jejich plnění.
Po nespočtu slibů Tesly o umělé inteligenci, autonomním řízení a robotice utratil tento výrobce elektromobilů zatím pouze 2,5 miliardy dolarů z celkových 25 miliard dolarů, které předpovídal v dubnu v rámci kapitálových výdajů za rok 2026. Toto pomalé tempo vyvolává otázky, zda Tesla utrácí dost na to, aby dosáhla pokroku, který si vytyčila.
„Je to kapitálově náročné odvětví,“ řekl Jay Van Sciver, partner a výkonný ředitel společnosti Hedgeye Risk Management. „Neexistuje způsob, jak se skutečně dostat z bodu A do bodu B s menšími výdaji.“
Opačná mechanika
Tesla se tak staví na zcela jinou trajektorii než většinu ostatních technologických gigantů, jejichž akcie jsou naopak trestány za příliš rozmařilé výdaje na umělou inteligenci. Čtyři konkurenti Tesly z velké sedmičky – Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms a Microsoft – předpovídají v roce 2026 kombinované kapitálové výdaje ve výši 725 miliard dolarů. Pro srovnání, roční prognóza kapitálových výdajů Tesly ve výši 25 miliard dolarů vypadá sice konzervativně, přesto její akcie v roce 2026 klesly o 18 %, což je nejhorší výkon v celé skupině.
Akciím Tesly by proto naopak navýšení kapitálových výdajů ve středeční zprávě o hospodaření pravděpodobně pomohlo, protože by to signalizovalo, že se vývoj produktů ubírá správným směrem. „U růstových akcií jsou kapitálové výdaje nejlepším ukazatelem budoucího růstu,“ podotkl analytik HSBC Mike Tyndall, který má u této akcie doporučení prodat. „Pokud peníze neutrácíte, pak nedosáhnete růstu.“
Kapitálové výdaje jsou pro společnosti jako Tesla „kontrolou důvěryhodnosti“, protože prodávají dlouhodobé vize, tvrdí Haris Khurshid, investiční ředitel společnosti Karobaar Capital, která vlastní akcie Tesly prostřednictvím derivátů. Realita je však taková, že Muskova historie je plná zmeškaných termínů a zrušených projektů. Investoři to vědí, a proto chtějí začít vidět známky hmatatelného pokroku.
„Méně se zaměřuji na jedno číslo, ale spíše na to, zda je celkový příběh vnitřně konzistentnější,“ řekl Khurshid. „Ukazují kapitálové výdaje, komentáře managementu a časové harmonogramy stejným směrem? To je to, co odděluje přesvědčivou vizi od přesvědčivé investice.“
Drahá Tesla
Na druhou stranu produkty, které Tesla vyvíjí, se zásadně liší od toho, co dělají ostatní velké technologické firmy – tj. především rozšiřují kapacitu cloudových výpočtů a budují AI služby. Tesla se zaměřuje na fyzickou stránku umělé inteligence a prezentuje budoucnost samořídících aut a robotických komorníků.
Tesla je přitom oceňována, jako by tu už tato budoucnost byla. S přibližně 163násobkem zisku za příštích 12 měsíců je to druhá nejdražší společnost v indexu S&P 500 a zdaleka nejdražší člen velké sedmičky, přičemž nejblíže je jí Apple s přibližně 34násobkem budoucího zisku. Celý index S&P 500 se obchoduje s přibližně 20násobkem zisku.
Očekává se, že Tesla ve druhém čtvrtletí vykáže čistý zisk ve výši 1,2 miliardy dolarů, což je o 2,7 % více než před rokem, a tržby ve výši 26 miliard dolarů, což je o 17 % více než ve stejném období předchozího roku. Celkové prostředí pro elektromobily ale zůstává pochmurné. Přestože společnost ve druhém čtvrtletí zaznamenala prudký nárůst dodávek vozidel, investoři po této zprávě vybírali zisky, což 2. července způsobilo pokles akcií o 7,5 % a šlo tak o nejhorší den v roce.
„Myslím, že tu je nyní mnohem méně důvodů věřit v Teslu než kdykoli předtím,“ řekl David Trainer, generální ředitel technologické výzkumné firmy New Constructs. „Její hlavní podnikání konkuruje v extrémně kapitálově náročné oblasti superspolečnostem, které již byly ziskové a jsou ochotny zisk nevykazovat.“
Faktor SpaceX
Tlak na Teslu, aby dodržela své sliby, se od vstupu Muskovy druhé společnosti SpaceX minulý měsíc na burzu výrazně zvýšil. Pokud zisky Tesly nesplní vysoká očekávání, budou ambice SpaceX kolonizovat Mars a provozovat orbitální datová centra pro Muskovy fanoušky pravděpodobně zajímavější. SpaceX by měl své výsledky zveřejnit 4. srpna.
Přitom se již šíří spekulace o fúzi mezi oběma společnostmi – od Muskova společného vlastnictví, přes podíl Tesly v nyní SpaceX vlastněné společnosti xAI, až po společný podnik Terafab na výrobu čipů. SpaceX má velké ambice v oblasti umělé inteligence a pilně získává hotovost po svém přelomovém IPO v hodnotě 75 miliard dolarů a následném prodeji dluhopisů za 25 miliard dolarů.
Schopnost Tesly provozovat roboty a robotická taxislužby by proto mohla rozhodnout o tom, zda si v budoucnu zachová nezávislost. Veřejně obchodovaná SpaceX „nutí Teslu ke kratším časovým harmonogramům se skutečnými výsledky,“ řekl Max Gokhman ze společnosti Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. „Nemyslím si, že investoři budou trpěliví s nedodrženými termíny nebo prázdnými sliby, jako tomu bylo předtím, než existoval jasný způsob, jak si zahrát s Elonem Mars.“
Amova Asset Management Americas Inc. increased its position in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report) by 4.1% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 1,007,964 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock after purchasing an additional 39,495 shares during the quarter. Tesla makes up 5.3% of Amova Asset Management Americas Inc.’s holdings, making the stock its 2nd largest position. Amova Asset Management Americas Inc.’s holdings in Tesla were worth $376,071,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
A number of other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also bought and sold shares of the business. Norges Bank acquired a new position in shares of Tesla in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $17,128,100,000. Corient Private Wealth LLC grew its holdings in Tesla by 3,205.5% in the 4th quarter. Corient Private Wealth LLC now owns 21,459,599 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $9,650,811,000 after buying an additional 20,810,386 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE grew its holdings in Tesla by 56.0% in the 4th quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 20,755,605 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $9,334,211,000 after buying an additional 7,450,766 shares in the last quarter. Cardano Risk Management B.V. increased its position in Tesla by 882.8% during the 4th quarter. Cardano Risk Management B.V. now owns 8,202,060 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $3,688,630,000 after buying an additional 7,367,507 shares during the period. Finally, Vanguard Group Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Tesla by 2.6% during the fourth quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 258,925,024 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $116,443,762,000 after buying an additional 6,538,720 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 66.20% of the company’s stock.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research analysts have issued reports on TSLA shares. Citigroup began coverage on shares of Tesla in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. China Renaissance dropped their price objective on Tesla from $382.00 to $372.00 and set a “hold” rating for the company in a report on Monday, April 27th. Zacks Research upgraded Tesla from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, April 28th. Phillip Securities decreased their price target on Tesla from $220.00 to $215.00 and set a “sell” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, May 13th. Finally, Sanford C. Bernstein raised Tesla from an “underperform” rating to an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 5th. Twenty-one investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twenty-one have assigned a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $408.07.
Get Our Latest Research Report on Tesla
Insider Buying and Selling at Tesla In other news, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, May 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $450.00, for a total value of $1,350,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 18,106 shares in the company, valued at approximately $8,147,700. This represents a 14.21% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, April 30th. The stock was sold at an average price of $378.11, for a total value of $9,985,506.99. Following the sale, the director owned 48,399 shares in the company, valued at $18,300,145.89. This represents a 35.30% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 32,015 shares of company stock valued at $12,383,640 over the last quarter. Company insiders own 19.90% of the company’s stock.
Key Stories Impacting Tesla Here are the key news stories impacting Tesla this week:
Positive Sentiment: Analysts and strategists still see upside catalysts from Tesla’s Q2 report, especially around robotaxi progress, Cybercab, Optimus, and other AI/autonomy updates that could support a higher valuation. This Analyst Bets On Tesla’s Robotaxi And Cybercab Businesses Ahead Of Q2 Results – Retail Sees Stock Climbing To $450 Positive Sentiment: Tesla’s delivery rebound and stronger-than-expected sales trends have improved sentiment into earnings, with some coverage saying a Q2 beat looks likely and that production growth in Germany could help margins and volume. Tesla’s Earnings Setup: Most of the Good News Is Already Out Positive Sentiment: Bank of America reportedly raised its Tesla forecasts ahead of earnings, reinforcing the view that results and near-term guidance could come in better than feared. Bank of America raises Tesla forecasts ahead of July 22 earnings Positive Sentiment: There are also reports that Tesla is planning a major production boost in Germany, which could support future output and help the company maintain global EV scale. Tesla plans for a major production boost at its plant in Germany Neutral Sentiment: Tesla investors are focused on key earnings questions around margins, AI spending, FSD subscriptions, and whether autonomy can justify the company’s premium valuation. Tesla investors share their most burning questions ahead of earnings Neutral Sentiment: The stock is also being viewed as a major volatility event into earnings, with traders expecting a sizable move but no clear consensus on direction. Here’s How Much Traders See Tesla Stock Moving After Earnings Negative Sentiment: Options traders are betting heavily against Tesla ahead of earnings, reflecting concern that expectations are too high and that the stock may be vulnerable if results disappoint. Options Traders Bet $550M Against Tesla Ahead Of Earnings Negative Sentiment: Several articles warn that Tesla’s AI4 hardware may already be falling behind and that the company’s valuation depends heavily on future autonomy gains, adding pressure if management does not deliver fresh upside. Tesla’s (TSLA) AI4 Hardware May Already Be Falling Behind Negative Sentiment: Competition remains a concern, with BYD’s strong EV deliveries and XPeng teasing a lower-priced rival to the Model Y, highlighting pressure on Tesla’s global dominance and pricing power. BYD Delivered 557,090 Battery-Electric Vehicles in Q2 2026. Here Is What That Means for Tesla’s Global Dominance. Tesla Stock Performance Tesla stock opened at $369.57 on Tuesday. The company has a quick ratio of 1.62, a current ratio of 2.04 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The stock has a market cap of $1.39 trillion, a PE ratio of 339.06, a P/E/G ratio of 13.08 and a beta of 1.80. Tesla, Inc. has a 12-month low of $297.82 and a 12-month high of $498.83. The business’s 50-day moving average price is $407.91 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $405.03.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The electric vehicle producer reported $0.41 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.39 by $0.02. The company had revenue of $22.39 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $22.96 billion. Tesla had a net margin of 3.95% and a return on equity of 4.89%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 15.8% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the company posted $0.27 EPS. As a group, analysts expect that Tesla, Inc. will post 1.34 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Tesla Company Profile (Free Report)
Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American company that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy generation and energy storage products. Founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla grew into a vertically integrated mobility and clean‑energy company with Elon Musk serving as its chief executive officer. The company’s stated mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, reflected in its combined focus on electric drivetrains, battery technology, renewable energy products and software.
Tesla’s automotive business includes a lineup of battery‑electric vehicles and related services.
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Item 1 of 2 A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole
[1/2]A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesHeavy outlays target AI infrastructure, robotaxis and OptimusBarclays says stronger vehicle operations can help finance AI-related expendituresQuarterly update may show first cash burn in over two yearsJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab is expected to report its first quarterly cash burn in over two years on Wednesday, as its spending on AI and robotics soars, intensifying investor scrutiny over when those bets will pay off.
CEO Elon Musk has pivoted the electric-vehicle maker's focus from manufacturing cars to building so-called physical AI businesses such as self-driving taxis and humanoid robots. Much of Tesla's valuation hangs on that promise.
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However, investors are growing increasingly uneasy as spending on AI infrastructure, including data centers, and manufacturing capacity is projected to climb to $25 billion this year, outstripping quarterly cash generated by Tesla's core automotive and energy operations.
"As capex more than doubles and free cash flow turns negative, investors are increasingly focused on evidence that Tesla's spending is strengthening its physical AI moat," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.
Investors have been betting that Tesla's autonomous-driving technology and robotics ambitions could eventually unlock new, high-margin revenue streams. But progress has been slower than many analysts expected, and Musk has missed some self-imposed deadlines.
Soon after launching its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in April last year, Musk predicted Tesla robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. In January, Tesla said the service would expand to seven new cities in the first half of 2026. But its robotaxi network remains confined to Austin, Dallas, Houston in Texas, and Miami in Florida.
Ahead of Wednesday's earnings call, the most-voted question on Tesla's investor-relations site, submitted by a retail investor, was: "What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short-term goals that they've set for themselves?"
Nine of the top 10 most-voted questions center around Tesla's AI-driven bets - robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots and its Full Self-Driving technology.
"Why has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see Cybercab start customer rides?" asked another retail investor.
Tesla has said that it has started manufacturing its Cybercab vehicle, a tailor-made robotaxi without a steering wheel and pedals. However, the vehicles have not been deployed into a robotaxi network, with Musk saying that the production ramp would be "agonizingly slow."
AUTO BUSINESS REBOUNDSTesla delivered a record number of vehicles for the April-to-June period, far exceeding market estimates, as higher oil prices helped drive sales of EVs, especially in Europe.
Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up 3.9% from last year, which would snap a two-year skid of declining annual deliveries.
Barclays analysts said investors remained focused on Tesla's AI ambitions, but a stronger automotive business would help generate the cash needed to finance those investments.
For the second quarter, however, the vehicle-sales rebound may not be enough to offset heavy spending. Tesla is expected to report negative free cash flow of $3.3 billion, according to LSEG data.
Analysts expect Tesla's second-quarter profit to come in at 50 cents per share, compared with 40 cents per share in the same period a year earlier.
However, Deutsche Bank analysts expect the elimination of upfront Full Self-Driving software purchases earlier this year and low interest-rate financing in May to hit profitability.
Wall Street expects automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits of 18.1% in the second quarter, lower than 19.2% in the prior three-month period, according to Visible Alpha data.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Mike Colias and Anil D'Silva
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Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
Abhirup Roy is a U.S. autos correspondent based in San Francisco, covering Tesla and the wider electric and autonomous vehicle industry. He previously reported from India on global corporations, capital markets regulation, white-collar crime, and corporate litigation. Contact him at (415) 941-8665 or connect securely via Signal on abhiruproy.10
