Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

SummaryTesla, Inc. remains a Hold as I await clarity on Cybercab regulatory risk and European software rollout.TSLA Q3 deliveries exceeded production, depleting inventory; Q4 will require higher output with little margin for error.Germany's support boosts the odds for EU-wide driver assistance software approval, offering meaningful future profit potential.Cybercab faces a critical NHTSA review; a production cap could materially limit TSLA stock upside and weigh on valuation. PonyWang/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

I haven't liked Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) in a while, though it gave me a few reasons to reconsider last month.

Deliveries came in about 10,500 cars short of my bar, and the European vote I

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight, with earnings on deck, its AI and robotics outlook in focus, recent analyst activity and a technical setup showing a recovery attempt under the 200-day average.

Tesla stock is trading in a tight range. What should traders watch with TSLA?
Earnings Preview & HistoryTesla is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on October 21 after the market closes. Analysts estimate earnings per share of 43 cents along with revenue of $27.90 billion. For the prior quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of 33 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 50 cents. The company also posted revenue of $28.24 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $25.71 billion.

Beyond EPS: What Matters Most in Tesla’s Upcoming EarningsInvestors will be closely tracking Tesla’s outlook for Full Self-Driving, robotaxi and Optimus. Goldman Sachs said in a note this month that those updates are likely to matter more to the stock than earnings per share, and Tesla has begun putting its Cybercab into limited service in Austin. Automotive gross margin will also be in focus after Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating estimates.

Capital spending of more than $25 billion planned for 2026 and negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion last quarter will draw attention. So will whether energy storage margins recover from a sharp drop in the second quarter, after deployments of 13.7 GWh.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $412.23. Recent analyst moves include:

Jefferies: Hold (Raises Target to $400.00) (Oct. 12)
Tigress Financial: Buy (Maintains Target to $550.00) (Oct. 8)
UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $391.00) (Oct. 7)
Tesla Trades 3.9% Below Its 200-Day Average as Momentum ImprovesFrom a trend perspective, Tesla is still holding above its shorter-term baselines: it’s trading 1.4% above the 20-day SMA ($369.61) and 5.3% above the 50-day SMA ($356.08), which keeps the near-term structure constructive. At the same time, the stock is 3.9% below the 200-day SMA ($390.07), so rallies can still run into overhead supply before the longer-term trend fully improves.

Momentum is leaning better: MACD is above its signal line and the histogram is positive, which points to improving upside pressure versus the prior downswing. In plain terms, when MACD is above its signal line, it suggests bearish momentum is fading and buyers are starting to regain control.

The bigger-picture backdrop is still conflicted after the death cross in April (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA), which often keeps longer-term investors cautious until price can reclaim the 200-day area. The 12-month performance remains down 13.28%, reinforcing that this is still a recovery attempt rather than a clean long-term uptrend.

Key Resistance: $384.00 — a nearby round-number area sitting just below the 200-day SMA zone where rebounds can stall
Key Support: $354.00 — a nearby level close to the 50-day SMA area where dip-buyers may look to defend trend support
Read Next

Tesla Shares Trade FlatTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 0.93% lower at $374.53, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Image via Shutterstock

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Tesla buried Cybertruck sales inside a catch-all reporting category for years, but a quirk in Q3 2026 finally cracked it open, and what analysts found raises serious questions about the truck's future.

On July 22, 2026, Bloomberg published a piece comparing  the Cybertruck from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) to the Edsel from Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F). Based on Bloomberg’s analysis, several outlets including Futurism called the Cybertruck the “biggest flop in automotive history.”

Bloomberg notes Ford introduced the Edsel in 1957, predicted 200,000 units in its first year, sold less than a third of that, and dropped it two years later. Its verdict on the Cybertruck was harsher: Tesla’s annual sales target was 250,000 units, but it didn’t even crack 40,000 sales in its first year.

At the time, nobody outside Tesla could verify how many Cybertruck units actually sold.

Why the Number Stayed Hidden Until Now Tesla groups the Cybertruck into an “Other Models” line alongside the Model S and Model X. Electrek reported that production of both sedans ended in April, which makes the third quarter the first period where the category is effectively a Cybertruck number.

Tesla, via Electrek, delivered 8,295 Other Models in Q3, versus 15,933 a year earlier. Electrek put the decline at 48%, the category’s lowest since Q2 2021, when Electrek says Tesla delivered 1,890 Model S and X during a refresh transition.

Electrek estimates Tesla delivered 7,000 to 8,000 trucks, a pace Electrek pegs at about 30,000 a year. Electrek calls that 13% of the of Musk’s 250,000 goal.

How Electrek Built Its Estimate Three other products still sit in the category. Electrek counted about 600 leftover Model S and X units plus a final Signature run of 350. Electrek puts Semi deliveries in the hundreds, since volume production began September 25. The Cybercab is the real unknown, because Tesla delivers some to itself. The range is careful outside estimation, and Tesla has confirmed none of it.

Tesla, via Electrek, built 7,004 Other Models, down from 11,624. The category delivered more than it built, suggesting inventory reduction.

A Better Quarter by Cybertruck Standards Electrek previously estimated about 5,000 deliveries in Q2 2025 and about 21,500 for all of 2025. Three forces lifted Q3: a cheaper dual-motor trim arrived in late June, gas averaged $4.35 per gallon in early October, and a backlog built up. Tesla, via Electrek, told a court in July it had “several thousand Cybertrucks already committed to customers” it could not build during a casting supplier dispute.

With demand moving, Electrek reports Tesla raised prices $5,000 in August, putting the dual-motor at $74,990. So Futurism’s July label described a truck about to post one of its better quarters, and that quarter remains a small fraction of plan.

What the One Named Analyst Said Garrett Nelson of CFRA Research told Bloomberg the truck will more likely “fade away” than be discontinued completely.

Nelson added: “It’s possible that they try to do some sort of redesign, or come up with a different variant to try to boost sales, but we think that would really be a futile effort.”

His wording is more measured than the headline the story is remembered for.

Third-Party Counts and the EV Pickup Field Cox Automotive, via Electrek, estimated 3,744 U.S. Cybertruck sales in Q2. S&P Global Mobility, via Electrek, counted 7,071 registrations in Q4 2025, with 1,339 going to SpaceX and other Musk companies. S&P Global Mobility, via Futurism, shows barely 7,100 U.S. registrations in 2026 so far.

Still, Cox Automotive, via Electrek, ranks the Cybertruck ahead of the discontinued Ford F-150 Lightning at 2,421, the Chevy Silverado EV at 2,266, and the R1T from Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) at 1,219. That says as much about the category as the truck.

A Quarter Wall Street Liked Tesla, via Ars Technica, delivered 486,532 vehicles, a 2.1% decline, exceeding the 456,600 Ars Technica cited as expectations. CNBC reported shares jumped 5%; they traded at $379.81 at 11:00 AM ET October 12, -15.55% year to date.

Window Closing on the Clearest View Electrek notes the Semi is increasing at a Nevada plant Tesla says can build 50,000 trucks a year, all landing in Other Models. Within a few quarters, the Cybertruck disappears back inside the category. Q3 results arrive October 21.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways TSLA's Shanghai-built EV sales rose 5% y/y in September to 95,366 units, extending growth to 11 months.Shanghai-built EV sales climbed 13.7% in Q3, despite a 2.1% y/y decline in global deliveries. TSLA is offering discounts of up to 7,000 yuan on select models to boost demand. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) reported a 5% year-over-year increase in sales of China-made electric vehicles (EVs) in September 2026, extending its annual growth streak to 11 months, per the China Passenger Car Association, as cited in Reuters. Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced at its Shanghai factory, including exports to Europe, the Asia-Pacific and Canada, were 95,366 units compared with 90,812 units a year earlier.  

Shanghai-built EV sales rose 13.7% in the third quarter, according to Reuters calculations, although Tesla's global deliveries declined 2.1% year over year against a record-high comparable quarter in 2025. 

The September increase comes as Tesla faces intensifying competition in China, the world's largest automobile market.  

In September 2026, Tesla ranked sixth among new energy vehicle makers in China, trailing BYD, which led with 233,943 units. 

Tesla's Shanghai factory is helping the automaker offset demand pressure in China through stronger overseas shipments. The company is also offering final payment discounts through October, including 7,000 yuan on selected Model Y variants and 5,000 yuan across the Model 3 lineup, to encourage purchases in China's highly competitive EV market.  

These incentives, alongside product upgrades and Tesla's established manufacturing base, could help sustain sales momentum. However, continued discounting may weigh on automotive margins if lower prices are not offset by higher volumes and production efficiencies. 

Competitive Landscape: NIO & BYDDYRival Chinese automakers are also expanding their sales and strengthening their positions in the domestic and international EV markets.  

NIO Inc. (NIO - Free Report) delivered 37,408 vehicles in September 2026, up 7.7% year over year, across its NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY brands. Its flagship NIO brand delivered 21,318 vehicles, while FIREFLY deliveries reached a monthly record of 7,327 units. For the fiscal third quarter, total deliveries increased 25.4%, reflecting growing demand for its premium electric SUVs and smaller EV offerings.  

BYD Company Limited (BYDDY - Free Report) reported September sales of 463,561 new energy vehicles, up 17% year over year, marking its fifth consecutive month of sales growth, per Reuters. Its performance was supported by overseas expansion, with exports of passenger vehicles and pickups rising 153.9% to 179,877 units, helping offset subdued domestic demand. 

The Zacks Rundown for TeslaShares of TSLA are down 12.2% in a year against its industry's 0.8% fall.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 13.08X, higher than the industry’s average of 3.39X. It carries a Value Score of D.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA for 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 2.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimate for EPS for fiscal 2026 has been moving southward over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

TSLA currently has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Jefferies has raised its price target for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), the electric carmaker, to $400 from $350, as resilient vehicle deliveries and improving prospects for non-automotive businesses offset concerns over rising investment and operating costs.

Analyst Philippe Houchois maintained a 'hold' rating, with the revised target implying 5% upside from Tesla’s closing price of $382.70 cited in the 12 October research note.

Jefferies expects third-quarter revenue of $29.2 billion, an automotive gross margin of 16.7% and adjusted operating profit of $781 million, while forecasting cash outflow of about $5 billion.

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles during the quarter, up 1% from the previous three months but down 2% year on year, with its Model 3 and Model Y accounting for 478,200 deliveries.

The broker said demand across China, Europe and the United States had proved resilient, reflecting Tesla’s competitive value for money as well as lower comparison figures in some markets and higher fuel costs in Europe.

Production reached 464,400 vehicles, leaving output below deliveries, although Jefferies expects year-to-date production and deliveries to remain broadly aligned and support working capital.

The broker forecast automotive revenue of $21 billion, with a limited contribution of $140 million from regulatory credits, while stronger software uptake and improved vehicle resale values could support margins.

However, sustained research and development and selling costs are expected to weigh on profitability, while capital expenditure of $8 billion underpins Jefferies’ forecast of substantial cash outflow.

Jefferies has cut longer-term estimates because of the limited range of new vehicle models, slower energy-storage growth and the likelihood that newer ventures will initially generate losses.

The bank nevertheless sees improving prospects for full self-driving software, energy storage and robotaxis, while Tesla’s semi-truck programme is moving into production despite limited visibility over orders.

Houchois also highlighted the possibility of a future merger with SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX), arguing that overlapping technology ambitions, investment requirements and Elon Musk’s preference for retaining control could strengthen the strategic case.

The price-target increase therefore reflects potential value from Tesla’s broader technology ambitions rather than a clear improvement in its near-term earnings outlook.

What happened Shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at $375.00 on October 8. That was down 16.6% from the December 31, 2025 close of $449.72.

The business answer is less obvious than the price. Vehicle demand recovered from a disrupted start to 2025, and revenue followed. But the rebound has not yet produced proportional profit or free cash flow because Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is spending heavily on factories, AI computing, robotaxis and the Optimus program.

That gap matters more than the delivery headline. The standing investment case assumes that manufacturing scale can fund higher-margin software and autonomous services. In 2026, scale improved, while the cash burden of building the next business rose faster. This is an evidence-based interpretation, not a claim that one factor caused the entire share decline. Price history cannot separate earnings, valuation, competition, management credibility, interest rates and trading flows.

Read more: Tesla (TSLA) stock analysis and investment case

The move in numbers Dividing the October 8 close of $375.00 by the December 31 close of $449.72 and subtracting one gives -16.6148%. Nasdaq supplied both regular-session closes. Yahoo returned the same raw closing prices to within a fraction of a cent and showed no split or dividend event in the comparison window.

The operating recovery is real. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, 480,126 in the second and 486,532 in the third. The 1,324,681 total was 8.8% above the 1,217,902 vehicles delivered in the first three quarters of 2025.

First-half revenue rose 21.0% to $50.623 billion. First-half operating income rose just 1.3% to $1.339 billion, and common-stockholder net income rose 0.6% to $1.591 billion. More sales did not yet translate into comparable earnings growth.

Capital spending explains much of the tension. First-half capital expenditures rose 113.1% to $8.282 billion. That consumed 95.9% of $8.634 billion in operating cash flow, leaving $352 million under Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)'s free-cash-flow definition. In the second quarter alone, free cash flow was negative $1.092 billion.

Related: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q3 Consensus Splits Cars and Energy

How Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) makes money The company still earns most of its revenue by selling and leasing vehicles. It also sells energy storage systems, charging and service work, regulatory credits, insurance in some markets, and driver-assistance software. The vehicle fleet gives Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) a customer base for paid software and data for developing autonomy.

Investors are therefore underwriting two businesses at once. The current operation is a capital-intensive manufacturer. The hoped-for next operation adds recurring software, paid autonomous rides and robotics, which could carry better economics if they scale. The first business must keep funding the second while vehicle pricing and competition remain uncertain.

Competition tests both sides. Established automakers and EV specialists compete for vehicle buyers. In autonomous rides, privately held Waymo LLC said on September 1 that it was providing fully autonomous trips in 14 cities. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)'s second-quarter update still described FSD (Supervised) as requiring active driver supervision and said its Bay Area operation used that product under a transportation permit.

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has genuine scale: 1.325 million vehicles delivered through three quarters and 13.7 GWh of third-quarter energy-storage deployments. Scale can lower unit costs and spread development spending. It does not by itself prove that autonomous services or humanoid robots will earn attractive returns.

Why the case is still difficult The bull case starts with recovery. Second-quarter revenue rose 26% year over year, automotive revenue rose 23%, and services revenue rose 50%. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) also held $43.524 billion of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at June 30. The company has resources to invest and a large installed base to monetize.

The counterargument is conversion. Second-quarter operating margin fell to 1.4% from 4.1% even as revenue grew. Operating expenses rose 47%, and quarterly capital spending reached $5.789 billion. Management expects 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion and says the plan includes compute infrastructure, data centers, new manufacturing and research lines, company-operated AI assets, and retail, service and charging sites.

The spending may create valuable businesses. It also raises the hurdle for every forecast. Vehicle margin must stabilize, software revenue must become visible, and autonomous or robotics projects must move from technical progress to paying customers. If those milestones slip, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains a manufacturer carrying technology-company expectations and a much larger investment bill.

The 16.6% decline makes the stock cheaper than it was at year-end. It does not establish that the shares are cheap. That conclusion requires a valuation view and confidence in cash flows that the completed-session return cannot supply.

What's next The next test arrives on October 21, when Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports third-quarter results. Watch automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, operating margin, operating cash flow, capital expenditures and free cash flow. Higher deliveries matter most if those figures improve.

Then look for measurable software and autonomy economics. Active subscriptions, paid robotaxi miles, service geography, revenue disclosure and regulatory approvals are more useful than broad launch targets. Waymo LLC's commercial footprint makes the comparison concrete.

The third-quarter delivery release warned that deliveries and storage deployments are only two measures of performance. That is the right boundary for investors. The 2026 volume recovery supports the manufacturing case, while the profit and cash-flow record leaves the higher-margin transition unproven.

More from OptimistFi TSLA stock: the Tesla thesis, its status and the next test to watch Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Cannot Size Its Trial Exposure Why Is Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) Stock Down 60% This Year? Why Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) Stock Up 188% This Year? Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers Latest stock research and investment-case updates OptimistFi: evidence-first equity research Sources Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) first-quarter 2026 update — Filed April 22, 2026. Quarterly financial history, Q1 2026 deliveries and the comparable Q1 2025 delivery figure. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) second-quarter 2026 update — Filed July 22, 2026. Quarterly revenue, margin, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, free cash flow and Q2 delivery history. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) second-quarter Form 10-Q — Filed July 22, 2026. First-half income statement, cash flow, capital spending and the more-than-$25-billion 2026 capital-expenditure expectation. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) third-quarter deliveries — Filed October 2, 2026. Q3 production, 486,532 deliveries, 13.7 GWh of storage deployments and the October 21 earnings date. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) October 2 Form 8-K — Registrant identity, Nasdaq listing and the filed third-quarter delivery exhibit. Waymo LLC September 2026 service update — Official competitor update stating fully autonomous trips were available in 14 cities. Nasdaq Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) historical prices — Regular-session closes for December 31, 2025 and October 8, 2026. Yahoo Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) historical prices — Independent raw-close and corporate-action cross-check for the comparison period. Yahoo Finance adjusted-close methodology — Defines adjusted close. This article uses the separately returned raw Close field after reviewing corporate actions. Photo: Gigafactory Texas Building 1 by Larry D. Moore — June 17, 2022 file photograph of Tesla Gigafactory Texas near Austin. Photo license: CC BY 4.0 — Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Creator: Larry D. Moore. Read the full OptimistFi thesis on Tesla, Inc.: https://optimistfi.com/stocks/TSLA

See what would break the Tesla, Inc. thesis and track it live on the OptimistFi Thesis-Break Engine.

Browse every company OptimistFi covers at optimistfi.com/stocks, or read the latest evidence-first research.

The full Tesla, Inc. investment case, its status and the next test to watch live on the Tesla, Inc. thesis page.

Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.

Tesla is spending at a pace it has never attempted before, and earnings are falling while the bills pile up. Two specific conditions have to be met before this stock becomes a conviction buy, and right now neither one has…

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) trades at $375. Two developments would change the picture: free cash flow turns positive again, and Robotaxi starts producing revenue at scale. Tesla is now spending at a pace it has never tried before, and its earnings are falling while the spending ramps.

Tesla sells electric vehicles, grid batteries and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. It is also building Robotaxi, Cybercab and the Optimus robot. Last quarter, revenue rose 25.52% to $28.24 billion and beat estimates. EPS of $0.33 missed expectations of $0.5367, and free cash flow fell to negative $1.09 billion.

Record Deliveries and a Cash Pile Power the Bull Case Demand is healthy. Deliveries hit a record 480,126, and Tesla ended the quarter with “our largest order backlog since 2023.” FSD subscriptions climbed 56% to 1.48 million. Services margin reached an all-time high of 14.1%, and energy storage deployments rose 41%.

Robotaxi now runs in seven U.S. metros. It has logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving with “zero notable incidents,” according to management. Tesla also holds $43.52 billion in cash. A forward P/E of 159, compared with a trailing P/E of 350, shows that analysts expect earnings to grow sharply.

A $25 Billion Spending Wave Is Squeezing Earnings Operating margin fell to 1.4% as operating expenses jumped 47%. Management expects capital spending this year to top $25 billion and to keep rising for two or three years. Tesla is also arranging debt facilities that would let it borrow up to $30 billion. Automotive gross margin excluding credits slipped to 16.3% from 19.2% the quarter before.

Some skeptics argue the stock is worth far less. Investor George Noble said “the cyber taxi thing is completely overcooked” and put his sum-of-the-parts value at $30 to $60 a share. Management expects the early Optimus ramp to be “quite flat and long.”

Robotaxi Miles Are Piling Up While Revenue Proof Lags The core business is working. Deliveries, FSD and services all grew. No one has yet shown how Robotaxi miles become profit. Management says unsupervised miles are growing more than 10% a week. Over the next two to four quarters, investors should watch for fleet revenue disclosures and signs that capital spending is paying for itself.

Down 16.61% This Year While the S&P 500 Gained 13.5% Tesla is down 16.61% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 13.5%. Over one year, the stock is down 14.52%, while the index has gained 14.98%. The stock sits under its 200-day average of $392.19.

The consensus target of $392.42 implies upside. Here is how 43 analysts rate the stock:

Strong Buy: 4 Buy: 15 Hold: 20 Sell: 2 Strong Sell: 2 Cash Flow and Robotaxi Revenue Are the Two Tests That Matter Next At $375, Tesla faces two tests.

Free cash flow must turn positive and stay there for consecutive quarters, even with capital spending above $25 billion. If operating margin climbs from 1.4%, the spending is paying off.

Robotaxi must report real fleet revenue, with Cybercab moving from pilot builds to volume production. Unsupervised miles prove the technology works; revenue proves the business model works.

A Robotaxi breakthrough could lift the stock quickly. The valuation also carries risk: Tesla still trades at 350 times trailing earnings while its cash flow is negative (riding a story stock at that multiple is fine as long as you plan the exit, something our free bubble survivor’s handbook walks through in detail). If both conditions are met, the investment case strengthens. If cash burn grows with no fleet revenue, it weakens.

The vision is fully priced in, and the proof has not arrived yet.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Tesla Inc‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) next valuation test may have less to do with how many electric vehicles it sells and more to do with how much money it can make from the cars already on the road.

Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives sees autonomy and robotics reshaping Tesla’s future, but turning that vision into recurring revenue is what could determine whether his $500 price target holds up.

The $500 Case Goes Beyond EVsIn his latest research note, Ives maintains an Outperform rating and a $500 price target, arguing that Tesla is evolving into a "physical AI" platform spanning vehicles, autonomous driving, humanoid robots and energy storage. He says investors who value Tesla primarily as an automaker risk overlooking the software and services that could eventually generate revenue on top of its existing vehicle business.

The foundation is Tesla’s fleet of millions of vehicles, which generates real-world driving data to train its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. Unlike companies building autonomous technology without a comparable installed vehicle base, Tesla can connect data collection, software development and vehicle manufacturing within one ecosystem.

But the opportunity depends on monetization, not just technology. As Tesla’s latest shareholder update shows, FSD adoption is growing, with more than 55% of new North American deliveries including FSD subscriptions in the reported quarter. That creates a software revenue stream today while building the technical foundation for a larger autonomous-driving business.

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Robotaxi Is the Real TestIves sees Robotaxi as the bridge between Tesla’s current automotive business and its potential autonomy-driven future. Tesla reported about 2.5 million cumulative paid Robotaxi miles in its latest quarterly update, while expanding operations and preparing to deploy its purpose-built Cybercab.

The distinction between paid miles and a profitable business remains important. More rides can demonstrate demand and help Tesla gather driving data, but investors still need evidence of fleet utilization, operating costs and revenue per vehicle. Scaling unsupervised operations across more cities would also require regulatory progress and consistent safety performance.

Cybercab could improve the economics by removing conventional driving controls and designing the vehicle specifically for autonomous service. Yet production capacity, including the availability of 4680 battery packs cited in Ives’ note, could constrain how quickly Tesla expands its fleet.

What Investors Should WatchIves also sees Tesla’s Optimus robots and energy-storage business expanding the company’s addressable markets. Those opportunities could strengthen the $500 case, but they also require investment before their contribution to earnings becomes clear.

Tesla’s next test is whether it can scale Robotaxi operations while preserving the cash-generating power of its vehicle business. Investors should watch fleet growth, paid miles, FSD subscriptions and Cybercab production for evidence that physical AI is becoming a measurable business rather than a valuation promise.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 3.15% at $386.80 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Imagen: Shutterstock

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Key Takeaways TSLA could gain Slovakia's approval for FSD, potentially marking its ninth EU market for the technology.Data indicating lower accident rates back Slovakia's decision, but drivers remain responsible for vehicles.Wider FSD adoption could boost paid subscriptions and advance autonomous-driving plans. Per Reuters, Slovakia is expected to approve Tesla’s (TSLA - Free Report) Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, potentially becoming the ninth European Union (“EU”) country to authorize the driver-assistance technology. Per Reuters, Transport Minister Jozef Raz indicated that Slovakia would formally communicate its decision to the Netherlands, where the vehicle regulator, RDW, had cleared Tesla’s system earlier this year and acts as the primary regulatory authority for the automaker’s FSD technology in Europe. 

He also added the decision was supported by data indicating lower accident rates, while emphasizing that drivers would remain responsible for their vehicles. Once the letter is delivered, FSD would become available for use in Slovakia. 

The expected approval adds to Tesla’s progress in expanding FSD availability across Europe, following authorizations in countries including Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia and Denmark. The development comes as Tesla continues to push for wider regulatory acceptance of its technology, with efforts to persuade European regulators to approve FSD. An EU-wide vote could take place as soon as December, potentially opening the door to broader deployment across the region. 

From Tesla’s perspective, wider FSD adoption could support software monetization through paid subscriptions and enhance the value proposition of its vehicles. The system assists with steering, speed and navigation in various driving situations.  

Additional country-level approvals could help Tesla expand its addressable customer base, gather more real-world driving data and advance its longer-term autonomous-driving strategy. However, further growth will depend on regulatory decisions, demonstrated safety and customer adoption. 

As competition in advanced driver-assistance technology intensifies, Tesla faces challenges from automakers developing comparable systems. General Motors’ (GM - Free Report) Super Cruise offers hands-free driving on compatible roads, automatic lane changes and driver-monitoring technology across multiple models. GM is also developing eyes-off driving capabilities for select Cadillac models. Rivian Automotive’s (RIVN - Free Report) Autonomy+ provides hands-free, eyes-on driving across more than 3.5 million miles of roads in the United States and Canada, with features including lane-position adjustments and driver-initiated lane changes.  

Tesla’s expected expansion into additional European markets could broaden FSD adoption and support software revenue growth. However, sustaining its competitive position will depend on securing regulatory approvals, demonstrating safety and offering compelling pricing. Continued software enhancements and greater paid subscription adoption could help Tesla differentiate its technology and strengthen recurring revenue. 

The Zacks Rundown for Tesla  Shares of TSLA are down 9.4% in a year against its industry's 2.8% rise. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 12.87X, higher than the industry’s average of 3.35X. It carries a Value Score of D.  

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA for 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 6%. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimate for EPS for fiscal 2026 has been flat over the past 60 days. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

TSLA currently has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).   

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here. 

Tesla must spend over $16.7 billion during 2026's second half to clear its disclosed capital target. Summary

A bigger AI checkbook raises the price of silence around Optimus milestones.

Tesla Inc. TSLA, the electric-vehicle and physical-AI developer, drew fresh scrutiny over Optimus's commercial progress, with shares down approximately 1.4% to $372.721 at 10.30 EST on Oct. 8. Barron's highlighted the limited operating evidence available as rival robotics programs advance. The valuation picture adds pressure: shares sit 11.14% above the $335.37 GF Value estimate, leaving a premium that future execution must justify.

The spending bill is already substantial. Tesla's SEC filing puts expected 2026 capital expenditures above $25 billion, spanning AI computing, data centers, manufacturing capacity and AI-enabled assets. With $8.28 billion spent in the first half, clearing that forecast requires more than $16.72 billion in the second half. That is over twice the first-half outlay. This is a company-wide investment push, not a disclosed Optimus-only budget.

For investors, the next useful robotics milestone needs numbers behind it. Repeatable factory work, measurable output and paying customers would make Optimus easier to assess as a business. Building capacity is one step; earning a return on it is another. Until Tesla supplies clearer commercial evidence, investors face a tough valuation question: how much should they pay today for robot profits that remain difficult to measure?

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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For months, the bears had a simple story to tell about Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA: demand for its electric vehicles (EVs) was fading, the competition was closing in, and the glory days of growth were over. On Oct. 2, however, Tesla handed them an awkward set of numbers.

Tesla Today

$377.75 -2.93 (-0.77%)

As of 10/7/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

$297.38▼

$498.83349.77

$412.19

The EV giant delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, comfortably ahead of the roughly 462,000 Wall Street had expected and its second-highest quarterly total on record. The market's response was emphatic, with shares jumping almost 5% on the day, extending a run that has seen them climb around 10% over the past week to trade near $380. The stock is now up more than 25% since its low back in July.

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So the immediate question has been answered: demand hasn’t actually fallen off a cliff. But with that easy win banked, the harder questions are coming into view.

Does this mark the start of a real recovery, or simply a good quarter flattered by timing, and what does Tesla need to prove when it reports full third-quarter earnings in a couple of weeks?

The Beat That Silenced the DoubtersLast week’s headline was a clear win. Beating expectations by more than 24,000 vehicles is no small feat, especially after a year when Tesla's sales wobbled, and rivals gained ground. For a quarter many feared would disappoint, the result was reassuring.

Europe was the standout driver, with demand staging a notable recovery. Registrations surged last month, with Tesla's numbers up around 62% in France, 38% in Sweden, and 25% in Spain. After a long stretch of weakness on the continent, that rebound suggests the brand's troubles there may be easing.

It also reaffirms that the Model 3 and Model Y remain formidable sellers, again accounting for the vast bulk of deliveries. Tesla's core lineup, even as it ages, still has plenty of pulling power in a fiercely competitive market.

The Catch Beneath the HeadlineLook a little closer, though, and the picture is more nuanced. Although the quarter beat expectations, deliveries were down about 2% from the same period last year. In other words, last week’s numbers could be viewed as a solid beat on expectations, but not the full return to the growth the most optimistic bulls would have wanted.

There’s also a timing wrinkle that can’t be ignored. A generous U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles expired last week, which likely pulled some sales forward as buyers rushed to beat the deadline. That raises an uncomfortable possibility: some of last quarter's strength may have been borrowed from this one.

That makes the current quarter a real test. With the tax-credit boost gone, investors will be watching closely to see whether demand holds up, or whether the fourth quarter reveals that the third was flattered by a one-off scramble.

Why the Bulls Are Still in ChargeFor now, though, the optimists have the upper hand, and not without reason. The delivery beat has eased fears of a deeper slump, the European recovery looks real, and momentum is firmly on the stock's side heading into this month’s earnings.

Crucially, the bull case stopped resting on vehicle deliveries a long time ago. The stock’s towering valuation reflects a belief that Tesla has become far more than a carmaker, with its robotaxi ambitions, the Cybercab, the Optimus robot, and its wider AI efforts all representing potentially enormous future businesses. A solid delivery number reassures investors that the core business funding those dreams remains healthy.

There is fresh momentum on that front, too. Tesla is set to show the Cybercab at next week’s Paris Motor Show, with a potential European launch as early as 2027, while regulators on the continent inch toward approving its self-driving software. For the bulls, this is a company making progress on both its near-term and long-term fronts.

What to Watch From HereThe stage is now set for Tesla's full earnings report in two weeks, which will reveal whether strong volumes are actually translating into healthy profits. That is where the real scrutiny lies, because a delivery beat means little if margins have been sacrificed to achieve it.

The bears will point to the year-over-year decline, the heavy reliance on two models, and last week’s tax-credit cliff as reasons the celebration may be premature. The bulls will counter that the demand scare has passed and the long-term story is only getting more exciting. Both have a point, which is why the upcoming earnings, and the margins and guidance within them, matter so much.

For investors, the recent delivery beat is a win worth savoring, but not one to get carried away with. For sure, it has bought Tesla some breathing room and temporarily silenced the doubters, yet the questions that really move this stock, in particular profitability and the progress of its autonomous ambitions, remain firmly on the table. Only the company's next earnings report, due in just under two weeks, can answer them.

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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported 486,532 deliveries in the third quarter, a figure that came in ahead of analyst estimates. While the figure may show strength in several regions, fewer than 1,000 of those deliveries in the quarter were in India. But the country is now starting to see momentum.

• Tesla stock is trending lower. Why is TSLA stock trading lower?

Tesla India Gets Slow StartTesla launched deliveries of the Model Y in India in September 2025, with lofty goals of selling 2,500 vehicles in the first year. The total in the first 12 months was only 699, with less than 1,000 vehicles (993) sold in the first 13 months.

In the first month, only 69 vehicles were registered, according to data from Electree, as reported by Electrek.

The weak sales came with the Model Y launching with a price of around $70,000 in the country, higher than many other electric vehicle models.

That total of 69 took months to beat.

In 2025, Tesla had 226 registrations in India for vehicles, a total for the first four months of availability in the country.

The first five months of 2026 didn’t fare much better with 202 registrations, including a new monthly low of 29 in February.

Things changed in April and that could be the key for investors to be excited, even with India being a small portion of Tesla’s overall sales.

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Tesla’s Winning StrategiesTesla launched the six-seat Model Y L in India in April with a price of around $65,000, cheaper than the five-seat Y Long-Range model ($71,000). That move paid off with demand for the six-seater higher than in past months.

The EV giant also cut the price of the entry-level Model Y in the country in May to a price of around $53,000.

Those two moves led to an increase in demand and a record 294 registrations for September 2026.

Here are the registration numbers over the last four months:

June: 38 July: 116 August: 117 September: 294 Over the last four months, registrations of 565 have topped the 428 figure from the combined prior nine months.

Tesla has added showrooms in India. Together, these moves have increased demand and more registrations. October data will remain key to see if the trend of higher registrations continues.

Room to GrowLess than 1,000 vehicles sold in India in the first 13 months offers plenty of opportunity for Tesla in a growing EV market.

In India, there were 35,995 EVs registered in September, a figure that was up 98% year-over-year. Tesla’s market share of 0.8% pales in comparison to Tata, which sold 14,769 vehicles during the month.

Another winner in India is VinFast (NASDAQ:VFS), with 2,963 registrations in September. VinFast started in India in the same month as Tesla, but differed by operating a plant in the country, allowing for lower prices on vehicles to get around import duties. Tesla chose not to build a factory in the country.

In the premium segment, Tesla ranks second with around 30% market share, trailing only BMW.

Tesla is a small player in India, which remains a small portion of the company’s total vehicle deliveries. Based on the growth in recent months after several notable company changes, there could be room for more growth for the EV giant.

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Image via Shutterstock/ Fly Of Swallow Studio

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

UBS just raised its Tesla price target and called the risk/reward tactically favorable, but the same stock lost 32% in 30 days after one bad earnings report. Here is what the bull case actually rests on.

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UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised his price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) to $391, according to UBS from $385, according to UBS and kept his Buy rating. The argument behind the modest bump carries the weight. Tesla shares trade at $378.02, down 16.6% over the past year and 15.94% year to date. They are also up 7.14% over the past week and 6.76% over the past month. Spak is making a tactical call on a stock that has started moving again after a weak year.

Ticker Company Firm Action Old Rating New Rating Old Target New Target TSLA Tesla UBS (Joseph Spak) Price Target Raised Buy Buy $385 $391 Why Tesla Stock Follows Sentiment More Than Earnings Spak’s core claim is direct: “Tesla remains more sentiment- than results-driven, and at current levels, the risk/reward looks tactically favorable.” Put simply, the share price moves on what investors expect from robotaxis, robots and AI. Quarterly profits play a smaller role.

The record supports him. In Q2 2026, Tesla earned $0.33 per share, missing the $0.5367 estimate. The stock fell 14.52% on the day of the report, then gained 9.15% over the next 30 days. The S&P 500 ETF rose 3.43% over the same period. At roughly 396x earnings, the price rests on expectations about the future: Robotaxi service in seven U.S. metros and 1.48M active FSD subscriptions. Investors who value Tesla on fundamentals will find current profits explain little of the stock’s behavior.

What Tactically Favorable Means for Your Timeline The call is about near-term positioning. Spak’s move from $385 to $391 tells you the underlying model barely changed. Spak’s message is that conditions currently favor the bulls. Third-quarter deliveries came in ahead of consensus estimates, and options traders lean bullish, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.59. That means call contracts outnumber puts.

Sentiment Can Reverse Without Warning A stock that rises on mood can fall on mood too, even when the business hasn’t changed. Today Tesla is down 0.7% in premarket trading after European self-driving approvals were delayed. After the Q4 2024 report, shares lost 32.04% over 30 days.

The fundamentals give little support if the mood turns. Operating margin fell to 1.4% in Q2. Free cash flow came in at -$1.09B, and management expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. Automotive margins excluding credits slipped from 19.2% to 16.3%.

Is the UBS Call Worth Acting On? The call works as a timing signal and gives little guidance on value. Remember that this is one firm’s view, and a price target forecasts nothing with certainty. For retirement-focused investors, the call functions as a short-term read on momentum.

The test comes with the Q3 earnings report. If automotive margins hold at or above 16.3% and free cash flow becomes positive, the fundamentals start to support the sentiment. If both slip while the stock keeps rising, the rally rests only on optimism, and that is when it is most likely to reverse.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Tesla sits more than 20% below its January peak, yet the company is pouring billions into robotaxis, humanoid robots, and grid batteries that could reshape its earnings entirely by decade's end. Whether that spending lifts your stake or sinks it…

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A $353.78 share price puts Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) 21.33% below where it started the year. So what could a $10,000 stake bought today be worth by 2030?

The stock deserves a forward look because Tesla is spending heavily on robotaxis, humanoid robots and grid batteries. Those investments could remake its earnings over the next five years, or weigh on them.

One note on timing: the price model runs to a five-year horizon ending September 28, 2031, which is the closest modeled horizon to 2030. All the concrete figures below use that endpoint. Any figure tied to 2030 itself is labeled as illustrative.

What Your $10,000 Could Become in Tesla’s Base Case In the base case, a $10,000 investment could be worth about $13,938 at the end of the five-year window. That is a total return of 39.38%. It rests on a modeled share price of $498.64, measured from the model’s reference price of $357.74, and works out to an annualized return of 6.87%.

For a 2030 snapshot (illustrative only), the base path shows $464.44 on December 28, 2030. At that price, the $10,000 stake would be worth roughly $12,982.61.

Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios for a $10,000 Stake Scenario Target Price (5-Year) Total Return Annualized Return Value of $10,000 Bull $679.85 90.04% 13.7% $19,004 Base $498.64 39.38% 6.87% $13,938 Bear $397.29 11.06% 2.12% $11,106 Over the next year, the model’s target is $390.17. That implies 9.06% upside and would turn $10,000 into about $10,906. The model rates its confidence at 0.9, which it labels high.

Wall Street’s consensus target is $396.62. Analyst views are split: 6 strong buy, 16 buy, 19 hold, 3 sell and 2 strong sell.

Three Growth Engines Behind the Upside Case Autonomy is starting to earn money. Active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% year over year, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries came with FSD attached. Robotaxi now runs in seven markets in the US and has logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi.

Tesla’s CEO said on the latest earnings call: “I think for a lot of people, they’re actually buying Tesla full self-driving with a car attached as opposed to a car with FSD.”

Energy storage is tied to AI demand. Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of storage in the second quarter, up 41% year over year. Management said the energy business “will be crucial for the scale up of artificial intelligence data centers.”

Revenue is growing again. Second-quarter revenue rose 25.5% to $28.24B, beating the $26.36B consensus, on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. Analysts expect EPS to climb from $1.7724 this fiscal year to $2.2011 next year.

Risks That Could Shrink Your Ending Balance Profitability is the biggest weak spot. Second-quarter operating margin fell to 1.4%. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 estimate by 38.51%, and free cash flow swung to -$1.09B. Management expects capital spending of “more than $25 billion” this year and says it will keep rising for “the next two or three years.”

Estimates are also moving the wrong way. Over the past 30 days, next year’s EPS estimate had 19 downward revisions and 4 upward ones. On valuation, the stock trades at about 372x trailing earnings and 174x forward earnings, with a beta of 1.85. That leaves little room for execution slips.

The CEO himself called Optimus “the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we’ve ever made at Tesla.” Sentiment is also muted, with a composite score of 45.15, rated neutral. And the shares are increasingly tied to SpaceX heading into a busy week for the company, according to Barron’s.

What to Watch Before You Commit $10,000 The next earnings report will show whether margins recover as capital spending rises. Across the modeled five-year window, a $10,000 stake ranges from about $11,106 in the bear case to $19,004 in the bull case, with $13,938 as the base case.

Treat these as scenarios, not guarantees. This is a projection, not investment advice.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

In the month since Tesla's Cybercab rollout in Austin, the company has almost quadrupled the number of its driverless, bronze two-seaters authorized for commercial service in Texas. For Elon Musk to achieve his ambitions, growth has to pick up

The unusual driverless vehicles, with no steering wheel, pedals, rear or sideview mirrors or outside door handles, have received mixed reviews from paying passengers, who shared videos and posts online after the launch on Sept. 3. Criticisms have included lengthy wait times, pickups and drop-offs in the wrong place, and technical difficulties with the vehicles' butterfly doors or trunk closing improperly.

Improving its driverless technology and rapidly growing the Robotaxi service are key to Tesla's effort to reignite investor enthusiasm. Auto sales have been sluggish for an extended period, and the shares have been a loser on Wall Street this year, down 18%, the only megacap tech stock that's failed to generate positive returns for investors.

On Friday, Tesla reported better-than-expected vehicle deliveries for the third quarter, lifting the stock almost 5%, but the company still showed a 2% year-over-year drop in deliveries. Tesla's core automotive business has experienced consecutive annual revenue declines, as it faces pressure from Chinese EV makers like BYD and Xiaomi, which are selling more affordable, innovative models while they ramp up exports to key Tesla markets, especially across Europe and Asia.

Meanwhile, Alphabet's Waymo continues to open in new cities. It's now in 15 U.S. markets, with 15 more on the horizon, according to the company's website. It's also announced planned international launches in London, Tokyo and Munich.

In Texas, Waymo had 1,154 autonomous vehicles authorized for commercial use as of Friday, including 359 of its new Ojai models, which feature a low step and doors that slide open and shut. Waymo is conducting more than 500,000 paid rides every week and has completed 270 million fully autonomous miles of commercial driving domestically. It currently has over 4,000 driverless vehicles in commercial operations in the U.S.

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Tesla had 45 Cybercabs authorized for commercial use in Texas at the time of its Austin unveiling, a number that rose to 169 as of Friday, according to Texas Department of Motor Vehicles' public records.

Tesla's hometown of Austin is the only city where it currently has the Cybercab running as part of its driverless ride-hail service. The company's Robotaxi fleet in Texas also includes 420 Model Y vehicles equipped with Tesla automated driving systems, which are not yet available to individual car buyers.

Austin has emerged as a popular early market for robotaxis due to a combination of relatively lax state regulations and the capital city's vibrant tech community. Amazon's Zoox is also testing in Austin.

Hurdles to expansionGrowing beyond Austin is the next challenge for Tesla's Cybercab.

In addition to technical issues, the company faces some potential regulatory hurdles to expansion. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated a so-called audit query after the Cybercab launch to make sure the vehicles comply with federal safety standards.

NHTSA originally ordered Tesla to respond by Sept. 30 to a long list of safety questions, but the company obtained an extension, an agency spokesperson told CNBC via email.

Ethan McKanna, an Austin resident and former Tesla intern, told CNBC that he's taken rides in every type of autonomous vehicle available to public riders in the city.

The 20-year-old McKanna, now a sophomore studying computer science at Texas A&M University, has also created a site called RobotaxiTracker.com, which uses machine learning to analyze data streaming in from traffic cameras and other public records, to show how autonomous services are working in U.S. cities.

McKanna said he's caught about 30 Cybercab rides and has been taking Waymo rides since they debuted in Austin in 2024. With the Cybercab, McKanna said he likes having his "own space with access to a massive screen, media controls and apps," and he found the drive quality "very smooth."

The "pick up, drop-off experience," he said, was not yet refined and the butterfly doors that extend out are "less convenient" than more traditional doors, or doors that slide open. It also takes patience, he said.

"There was so much demand that wait times were often like 45 minutes plus," he said, referring to the period when the Cybercab first rolled out. That's come down with more "equalized demand," in recent weeks, he said.

"Waymo's been doing commercial operations for longer, so they're just more mature with 24/7 service, better support, things like that," McKanna said, adding that in Waymo's early days in Austin, there were some "harsh braking" issues.

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No significant safety incidents or collisions have been reported in Austin involving a Cybercab since the commercial debut. But first responders have expressed concerns about dealing with the Cybercab's lack of manual driving controls and its unique doors.

Austin Fire Captain Matt McElearney told CNBC in an interview that while Tesla provided detailed emergency guidelines and gave first responders comprehensive instruction on how to deal with Cybercab and Model Y Robotaxi vehicles in a variety of events, that's not going far enough.

McElearney said he'd like to see national or state-level regulation of autonomous vehicles requiring robotaxis with no steering wheel or pedals to provide some other way for "public safety representatives to take control — move, steer, or shut down an AV — in both emergent or non-emergent events."

And since their performance can change with software bugs or updates, AVs should have to "pass testing through the entire lifespan of the product," through a kind of "dynamic certification" process, McElearney added.

Tesla didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The public also has a broad array of safety concerns.

According to surveys conducted by Slingshot Strategies in a September 2026 Electric Vehicle Intelligence Report, 50% of U.S. respondents said they would not feel comfortable with the idea of riding in a robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals. Upon hearing about the NHTSA investigation into Tesla's Cybercab, 70% wanted the company to pause rides, the surveys showed.

Musk needs that sentiment to change if he's to successfully move Tesla into the driverless era. His next step in trying to become a major player in the market will be expansion across Texas in San Antonio, Dallas and other cities, as well as to Nevada and Florida, where AV companies can take advantage of warm weather and favorable state regulations.

In January, Musk said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the company's robotaxis would be "very, very widespread" in the U.S. by the end of 2026. That hasn't happened yet. And in California, where Waymos are a common sight in several cities, Tesla still hasn't obtained permits to run its vehicles on public roads without humans at the wheel.

After Tesla's deliveries report on Friday, analysts at Cantor emphasized the magnitude of the opportunity.

"Management previously said that once production ramps, it expects Cybercab to ultimately be the largest volume vehicle in its lineup," they wrote.

WATCH: Tesla shares jumped ahead of Cybercab event

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Tesla just reported vehicle deliveries and production for the third quarter. Shares of Elon Musk's EV maker climbed about 2% following the news.

Here are the key numbers:

Total Q3 vehicle deliveries: 486,532Total Q3 vehicle production: 464,391Deliveries fell about 2% from 497,099 a year earlier, but climbed from the second quarter, when Tesla recorded 480,126 deliveries.

Analysts were expecting around 461,100 deliveries, according to StreetAccount's consensus. Tesla's company-compiled consensus, published Tuesday, was for 461,974 deliveries.

Tesla doesn't break out exact delivery numbers by individual model or region, but the company said its entry-level Model 3 sedan and most popular Model Y SUVs accounted for a vast majority, or 98%, of its deliveries.

Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in its shareholder communications.

Musk's automaker is under pressure due to surging competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers, such BYD and Xiaomi, which sell more affordable and innovative EVs. Tesla is trying to recover from consecutive annual declines in vehicle sales that were partly caused by a consumer backlash against Musk, the world's wealthiest person, and by the loss of a U.S. federal tax credit. 

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed in 2022 by President Joe Biden, had made the EV tax break available through 2032. President Donald Trump's spending bill curtailed it ahead of schedule, ending the tax break after Sept. 30, 2025.

Read more CNBC tech newsGoogle unveils latest AI model, but Wall Street wants a breakout personal agentFormer LinkedIn chief Roslansky to leave Microsoft, following other exec departuresSpaceX launches Google AI chips into orbit in push toward space-based data centersTrump's AI lunch included every major tech company. Except AppleTesla's stock is down 21% this year as of Tuesday's close, underperforming all of its megacap tech peers.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note published Wednesday that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries would be a "tough comparison" to a year ago and the prior period. Last year's third period was Tesla's "record delivery quarter," they wrote, and in the second quarter, deliveries "exceeded production by roughly 28K vehicles."

Tesla also said Friday that it deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage products, including its Megapack and Megablock systems, during the quarter. A year ago Tesla deployed 12.5 GWh of such products, and last quarter that figure was 13.5 GWh.

Megapacks are used for business and utility-scale developments, and Tesla's newer Megablocks are a combination of four Megapacks around one transformer. The systems use lithium-ion or other battery cells to help data centers and utilities avoid blackouts, allowing for energy storage from sources like solar and wind.

Musk's SpaceX is a large buyer of Tesla's backup batteries, and has also purchased millions of dollars worth of its Cybertruck pickups.

While Tesla is experiencing declines in deliveries, EV demand is up across the globe this year, according to a 2026 Global EV Outlook by the International Energy Agency. The IEA pointed to the Iran conflict and soaring gas prices as catalysts that "reinforced the case for EVs as a way to address energy security and fuel cost concerns."

In 2020, EVs and hybrid electric models represented under 5% of new car sales worldwide. That share reached one in four new cars sold in 2025, according to IEA.

Tesla said it will report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 21 after the market close.

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Tesla sold more than 480,000 EVs in the third quarter, as the company continues finding ways to move new cars despite its troubles in the U.S. market.

It was the second strong quarter in a row for Tesla after a somewhat rough start to the year. The sales figure easily beat out consensus estimates from Wall Street and topped even the most optimistic view for the company, which made its 10 millionth vehicle earlier this year.

The company said Friday morning that it built 464,391 vehicles in the quarter and delivered more than 486,532. That’s an increase of roughly 6,000 vehicle deliveries compared to the second quarter. But sales were still down from the same period last year, when Tesla delivered 497,000 vehicles. That quarter — Tesla’s best ever — was helped by a rush of U.S. buyers who were looking to take advantage of an expiring federal tax credit.

Before Friday’s numbers were released, Tesla’s sales were down nearly 20% year-over-year in the U.S. market, according to Cox Automotive.

That drop has been the result of a number of factors. Tesla has not released any new consumer models in years — with the exception of the Cybertruck, which has been a commercial flop. Potential buyers have also balked because of Elon Musk’s personal support of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and his role overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency, which laid off thousands of workers and canceled international aid funding.

Tesla has looked to other markets to make up for lost U.S. sales. The company’s sales are on the rise again in Europe, where EVs are more widely adopted and supported by tighter emissions regulations. Tesla is reportedly expanding capacity at its factory in Germany to meet that demand. The company has also seen continued strong sales out of its factory in China despite competition in the region, with some of those sales driven by Tesla looking to newer markets like Japan, Australia, and Lithuania.

Despite the rebound in overall momentum, sales have become something of a taboo subject for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who is increasingly focused on the company’s other efforts. Perhaps the biggest example is the Cybercab, which Tesla started putting on the roads of Austin, Texas in recent weeks. The two-seater EV has been giving autonomous rides to passengers despite having no driver, steering wheel, or pedals.

Tesla also recently launched the production version of its electric big rig, nearly a decade after it was first introduced. The company aims to make roughly 50,000 Tesla Semi vehicles per year.

Other new efforts are in the works, but don’t have firm commercial timelines. The second-generation Roadster is set to be re-revealed on October 15 after years of delays, though it’s not clear when it will get built. Tesla is also developing the Optimus humanoid robot, but has repeatedly pushed back its timeline. Earlier this week, Tesla announced it had secured up to $30 billion in new lines of credit to support these projects.

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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

It's been a good year for most of the Magnificent Seven. As of this writing, Apple and Nvidia are both up over 23% in 2026, and even Microsoft, the smallest gainer, is up about 7%. Alphabet, Meta Platforms (META +0.10%), and Amazon land in between.

Then there's Tesla (TSLA -0.20%). At roughly $347 as of this writing, the electric-car maker's shares are down about 23% this year and about 29% off their record close of $489.88, set in December 2025.

It's the only one of the seven in the red.

The strange part, I think, is that Tesla's sales are rising again. The gap shows up further down the income statement.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is demand the problem?Not lately. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% year over year and a sharp acceleration from 6% growth in the first quarter. This followed a tough 2025, when deliveries dropped around 9% to 1,636,129.

Tesla's second-quarter revenue climbed 26% year over year to about $28.2 billion, beating the latest-quarter growth rates for Apple (16%), Microsoft (18%), Amazon (20%), and Alphabet (24%).

Yes, some of that's a rebound from a poor 2025. But on sales alone, Tesla fits right in with the rest of the group.

Tesla's profits aren't keeping upShowing how little of that growth reaches the bottom line, Tesla's second-quarter operating income dropped 57% year over year to around $398 million. Its operating margin (the share of revenue left as operating profit) shrank to just 1.4%, down from 4.1% in the year-ago quarter, as operating expenses jumped 47%. Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share dropped 18%. And in the first half of 2026, Tesla delivered 16% more vehicles than a year before but earned around the same operating income ($1.34 billion vs. $1.32 billion).

The other six look very different. Five of them raised operating income by double digits in their latest quarters, from 18% at Microsoft to 124% at Nvidia.

Even Amazon, which has the lowest margins among the six, kept about 14 cents of every sales dollar as operating profit. Tesla kept about 1.4 cents.

Meta's the exception. Its second-quarter operating income dropped 8%, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal charges and $1.18 billion in severance. But its operating margin was still 31%, and management expects full-year operating income to beat 2025's.

Spending firstSure, low margins might matter less if the payoff looked close. But Tesla expects capital expenditures of over $25 billion in 2026, due to its AI initiatives. With around $8.3 billion spent in the first half, that implies more than $16 billion in the second. Second-quarter free cash flow was already negative $1.1 billion. And on Sept. 29, Tesla signed $30 billion in new credit facilities, but it doesn't currently plan to tap them this year.

The projects this spending funds are still early. Tesla's Robotaxi service was live in seven major metro areas by its second-quarter update, and the steering-wheel-free Cybercab began giving rides to Robotaxi app users in a limited part of Austin in early September. But Tesla doesn't break out robotaxi revenue, so investors can't yet tell what the service makes.

Meanwhile, the stock already prices in a lot of success. Based on next year's expected earnings, Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio is around 155. Nvidia's stock, in comparison, costs about 15 times next fiscal year's expected earnings, even though its operating income more than doubled last quarter.

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What can the delivery count add?Tesla hasn't given a date for its third-quarter delivery release. But its past two quarterly counts came out on the second day of a new quarter, so the next one may arrive within days.

A year ago, Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles, so it probably needs another record just to show growth. Still, even a strong count can't settle what separates Tesla from the other six this year.

"Tesla vehicle deliveries and storage deployments represent only two measures of the Company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results," the company wrote in its July 2 delivery report.

In the end, Tesla's 2026 problem isn't that customers quit buying its cars. It's that the business keeps very little of what it sells -- while spending heavily on projects that haven't paid off yet. At around 320 times the past year's earnings, I'd say Tesla stock's still too pricey for a company that kept 1.4 cents in operating profit on every sales dollar last quarter.

Sell ratings have fallen sharply even as Tesla shares remain down 21% this year and analysts cut vehicle-delivery expectations. Summary

Tesla shares are down 21% year to date as concerns persist around its core electric-vehicle business.

Wall Street is becoming less pessimistic about Tesla Inc. (TSLA, Financials), the electric car manufacturer that is branching out into robotics and artificial intelligence, despite the fact that its stock has down 21% so far this year.

According to statistics provided in the study, sell ratings currently account for 13.1% of 61 analyst recommendations, which is their lowest percentage since April 2023 and down from 23.3% in January.

The change does not equate to widespread belief. Analysts are still hesitant to give value to Tesla's robotaxi, humanoid robot, and other AI goals before they produce significant income, as seen by the rise in hold ratings to their highest level in over two years.

This caution also applies to the main car industry. Rajat Gupta, a JPMorgan analyst, recently reduced his price objective from $445 to $415 while keeping a neutral rating.

Due to weaker-than-expected deliveries in China and the United States, he also lowered his third-quarter delivery projection from 516,000 cars to 482,000.

It makes Tesla's worth more dependent on whether companies other than electric cars can generate significant profits.

Next, investors will keep an eye on car deliveries and proof that Tesla's robotics, AI, and autonomous driving initiatives can start boosting profits.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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Wall Street's top regulator backed a plan developed by electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) allowing companies to have investors opt to cast proxy votes in line with management ​automatically, worrying corporate activists, who say it will further diminish their influence.

The ‌program builds on an arrangement created by Exxon XOM.N last year. Both aim to increase the traditionally low participation rate of retail investors in corporate annual meeting elections, now around 30%, to closer ​to the 77% rate of institutional investors. Retail investors tend to vote ​with management but exhibit a "rational apathy" to casting ballots since individually ⁠they own tiny proportions of equity.

Shareholder activists said the program, along with other steps by ​the SEC, currently operating with only Republican commissioners, would unnecessarily diminish their influence. It ​is one of a number of steps under the Trump administration to shift power away from investors to corporate executives and boards.

In a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission dated ​September 29, Tesla outlined what it called an "issuer voluntary retail voting program" based on "extensive ​discussions" with SEC staff.

The program would save money issuers currently spend soliciting retail votes, Tesla said. ‌It ⁠spent more than $2 million rounding up mom-and-pop support at its two most recent annual meetings, including one designed to gain backing for CEO Elon Musk's pay package.

Currently investors often cast ballots via website, mail or phone, methods Tesla said its program would supplement. "Without ​a user-friendly way to ​vote, the proxy ⁠voting system disproportionately affects the vote and voice of retail investors," Tesla said in its letter.

In a same-day response, an official in ​the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance, Tiffany Posil, approved Tesla's plan ​and said ⁠the action applies to any other issuer.

Private investor James McRitchie, who often sponsors critical shareholder resolutions, said in an email that a better reform would allow shareholders to choose ⁠among ​their own priorities. These might include climate protection or ​limiting executive pay.

As approved by the SEC, the change is "blatantly one-sided," McRitchie said.

The SEC declined further comment. Tesla ​did not respond to requests for comment.

On Friday, Oct. 2 Tesla (TSLA -1.01%) is expected to publish its vehicle delivery and production stats for the third quarter. As usual, investors are asking whether it's a smart idea to buy Tesla stock ahead of the print. My take is to treat the delivery numbers as a headline, not a reason to buy shares.

What does Wall Street expect for Tesla's Q3 deliveries? According to data compiled by Visible Alpha, the consensus delivery estimate for Q3 is 456,000. What's interesting is how far apart some analysts are in their forecasts.

Image source: Tesla.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cut his delivery forecast from 490,000 to 435,000. He argues that sales in Tesla's biggest markets -- the U.S., China, and Europe -- are all tracking below consensus. The U.S. is the cleanest drag, with August sales down about 26% from a year earlier. Remember, around this time last year buyers were rushing to buy Tesla's in order to take advantage of an expiring $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles (EV).

Delaney also says that exports from Giga Shanghai into other regions in Southeast Asia, as well as South America and Australia are growing year over year but will only partially offset the declines from the core markets.

Image source: Tesla.

On the other side is Barclays analyst Dan Levy, who is modeling deliveries around 475,000. Levy's bull case revolves around robust volumes out of Giga Shanghai. Between July and August, wholesale volume rose 19% year over year to 180,000 units while exports from the plant jumped about 92%. China retail was the counter side of that coin, with only about 77,000 vehicles delivered in those two months, down over 20% year over year. Essentially, deliveries in domestic China are falling while Shanghai exports record volumes.

In addition, Levy points to wider adoption of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in North America as one reason why Tesla's deliveries might surprise to the upside. Levy thinks FSD could pull more incremental buyers than investors are anticipating.

Interestingly, J.P. Morgan sits in the higher camp for delivery estimates even after cutting its forecast from 516,000 units to 482,000. One reason behind J.P. Morgan's reduction was due to falling vehicle registrations in major markets. The bank notes that Tesla's August registrations were down about 13% in China and roughly 4% in the U.S. While registrations in Europe are starting to rebound, Chinese EV rivals are accelerating at a faster pace in that market.

Should investors buy Tesla stock before deliveries are published? Smart investors understand that market timing never works over a long stretch because you have to be right twice: before the news comes out and after everyone else has already priced it. Tesla stock has a history of experiencing fleeting pops on delivery headlines and then fading after the full earnings report is published. This dynamic showcases how Tesla frequently gets caught up in narrative-driven momentum trades.

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If you own Tesla stock, buy it because you have conviction that Elon Musk can turn the company into an AI conglomerate spanning robotaxis, Optimus, autonomy, and energy -- not because Friday's car count might land a few thousand units above an analyst's model. One quarter of deliveries will not make the long-term vision any clearer by market close on Friday.

Tesla keeps setting bold product deadlines, and the stock keeps rallying on the reveal before the date quietly disappears. With several major 2026 targets now on the clock, investors face a question of whether this time is different or the…

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) trades at $352.84, and the setup looks poor. The long-delayed Roadster shows a pattern: Tesla announces products faster than it ships them. Shares are down 21.54% this year as the market prices in that credibility gap.

Tesla revealed the next-generation Roadster in 2017 and promised deliveries by 2020. Its latest annual filing still lists the car as “in design development” with no timeline. Cybertruck was promised for 2021 and arrived in late 2023. The Semi, also unveiled in 2017, is still listed as starting production in 2026.

Record Deliveries and a $43.5 Billion Cash Pile Power the Robotaxi Pitch Second-quarter revenue rose 25.5% to $28.24 billion, beating estimates. Record deliveries reached 480,126 vehicles. Energy storage installations grew 41% to 13.5 GWh. FSD (Tesla’s paid driver-assistance software) rose to 1.48 million active subscriptions.

Robotaxi operates in seven U.S. markets after logging “more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi” with “zero notable incidents.” FSD also won approval in Croatia. With $43.5 billion in cash, Tesla can fund its AI ambitions for years.

A 344x Earnings Multiple Sits on Shrinking Profits Tesla is priced at 344 times trailing earnings and 159 times forward earnings. Second-quarter EPS of $0.33 missed expectations of $0.54. Operating margin fell to 1.4%, and free cash flow came in at negative $1.09 billion.

Management expects 2026 capex above $25 billion and is lining up debt facilities of up to $30 billion. Energy gross margin dropped from 39.5% to 20.4%.

Optimus and Cybercab Deadlines Decide Whether Patience Pays Tesla finished the quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023. The CEO described Optimus as “the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we’ve ever made at Tesla,” with an early ramp that will be “quite flat and long.” Whether Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 reach volume production in 2026 as planned will determine which side wins.

Wall Street Sees Upside While Tesla Lags the Market Badly The 46 analysts covering Tesla have an average target of $395.83, indicating 12.2% upside. Ratings break down as follows:

Strong Buy: 6 Buy: 16 Hold: 19 Sell: 3 Strong Sell: 2 Over the past year, Tesla fell 20.39% while the S&P 500 gained 15.16%. The stock also trades below its 200-day moving average of $395.18.

Credibility Gap Weighs on Tesla Until Deadlines Turn Into Deliveries The risk/reward looks poor at $352.84.

Tesla announces products with firm dates, the stock rallies on the reveal, and the deadline slips out of sight. The Roadster is the clearest case. Hype moves the price while promises keep falling through.

The biggest risk comes over the next few quarters. Tesla has several 2026 production targets due and capex that keeps growing. If Cybercab or Semi volumes slip into next year while margins stay near 1.4%, the multiple has room to compress. Operating expenses are also expected to keep growing.

Two things would force a rethink: free cash flow turning positive again and Semi shipping in real volume on schedule. Until either happens, watch the stock but stay skeptical of each new reveal.

At $352.84, Tesla’s valuation appears to price in more credibility than its delivery record has earned.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Optimus is entering a robotics market that could get dramatically bigger while many of the startups racing to build it become worth less. OpenAI early investor Vinod Khosla expects robotics to have its "ChatGPT moment" within two years, but warns that most robot startup valuations could decline by 2030.

Robotics Could Have Its AI MomentKhosla, whose Khosla Ventures has invested in robotics startups including Rhoda AI and Aim, expects dexterous humanoid robots to eventually learn new industrial tasks after just one or two hours of data.

He also expects several highly competitive humanoid robot leaders to emerge. But technological progress does not necessarily mean today’s valuations will hold.

Khosla said many companies he wanted to invest in were rejected because of valuation and described the pace of monthly fundraising rounds as "crazy." He expects the industry to undergo a major shakeout as robotics moves from technological promise toward commercial deployment.

Jerry Wang of Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (NASDAQ:FFAI) and AIxCrypto Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIXC) takes a longer-term view, arguing that U.S. public markets are only beginning to tap the robotics opportunity because there are still "not enough public physical AI robotic compan[ies]" compared with Asia; he expects the sector to be strong in the near term, adjust in the medium term and "do great again long term," likening the trajectory to EVs but "on a shorter time frame."

For investors, that creates an important distinction: the robotics market can be right even when individual valuations are wrong.

Tesla offers one of the clearest public-market windows into that transition. The company is developing Optimus as a humanoid robot aimed initially at industrial applications, giving investors exposure to the technology without having to buy into the private-market valuations Khosla is questioning.

Cheaper Robots Change the MathJohn Fowler of MBody AI Ltd. (NASDAQ:MBAI) sees the pressure coming from another direction: falling hardware costs.

"Yes, for much of the sector," Fowler said when asked whether robotics valuations could come under pressure as the industry moves from hype to commercial deployment. "Robot hardware is getting better and cheaper every year, which is great news for customers."

Cheaper robots could accelerate adoption while making it harder for individual hardware companies to sustain premium valuations. Fowler compared the trajectory with PCs and smartphones, where a handful of manufacturers scaled into lasting businesses while many others consolidated.

He expects the market to increasingly focus on "revenue, margins and customer retention."

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The Robot May Not Be the Whole TradeThat shift could broaden the robotics opportunity beyond companies building humanoids. Fowler argues that someone will have to "deploy, run, optimize and maintain" growing robot fleets, potentially creating opportunities in the software and services needed to operate them.

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), meanwhile, offers another public-market angle through the computing and AI infrastructure needed to develop increasingly capable machines.

For investors, the next catalyst is therefore not simply a better robot. It is evidence that robotics companies can turn technological breakthroughs into repeatable revenue, healthy margins and durable customer relationships.

Tesla’s Optimus may be riding a genuine robotics boom, but Khosla’s warning suggests the biggest industry does not necessarily create the biggest valuations for everyone.

TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla shares are trading lower by 0.68% at $355.02 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Photo: Around the World Photos/Shutterstock

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Tesla said on Tuesday that its supervised Full Self-Driving system has been approved in ​Croatia, with a rollout across the country ‌expected to begin soon, joining a growing list of European countries that have approved the technology.

Dutch regulator ​RDW approved the system in April, with ​Belgium and a handful of other countries ⁠following suit. Neighbouring Slovenia also approved earlier ​this month.

RDW is also proposing that the software ​be approved across the bloc. A safety group and several EU member states have, however, expressed concerns regarding the ​system's ability to exceed speed limits.

The issue ​has emerged as one of the most contentious aspects ‌of ⁠Tesla's push for a European rollout of FSD, which the automaker has said is crucial to boosting sales and regaining market share amid growing ​competition from ​Chinese electric-vehicle ⁠makers.

An expected vote on allowing the software rollout across the bloc ​was earlier delayed from October, with the next ​apparent ⁠opportunity for a decision not before December.

An EU-wide rollout requires support by a "qualified majority" of 15 ⁠of ​the EU's 27 member states, ​representing 65% of the bloc's population.

Tesla (TSLA -3.94%) is a leading electric vehicle (EV) company, but it's been struggling to win over investors this year. Since January, it's declined by about 20%. It has, however, been rallying in recent weeks, as investors have appeared intrigued by the stock briefly falling below $300, prompting a flurry of buying afterward and indicating strong support around that level.

Recently, the company made a big announcement, and it's one that could give investors more of a reason to be more bullish on the stock moving forward: it's begun delivering its Semi trucks.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the Tesla Semi could be the catalyst the stock needsAlthough it's been years since the company announced plans for the Tesla Semi, deliveries of the heavy-duty electric truck have finally begun. The company has also started producing it in high volumes and says it has the capacity to produce up to 50,000 per year.

If the trucks are well received and the early reviews are promising, that could lead to much more excitement for Tesla's stock. The autonomous truck market is a fast-growing opportunity where Tesla could be a major future player. Analysts at Grand View Research estimate that it was worth $46.8 billion last year and will grow to $139.5 billion by 2033 -- translating into a compounded annual growth rate of 14.8%. Europe has accounted for the largest share of the market thus far, but the opportunity remains in its early stages, particularly in the U.S., where Tesla could dominate.

For businesses, the Tesla Semi could improve efficiency and reduce costs, potentially unlocking a massive growth opportunity for the business. It could also give Tesla a way to strengthen its margins, as intense EV competition for cars has weighed on its earnings and has made investors less bullish on the stock overall.

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Will Tesla's stock rally before the end of the year?Tesla's stock isn't cheap, as it's trading at well over 300 times its trailing earnings. But if the company can give investors reason to be optimistic about the future, such as encouraging early sales numbers for the Semi, that could be what gives the stock a boost before 2026 comes to a close. But there’s no guarantee that will happen.

Unfortunately, with no margin of safety priced into the stock at such an elevated premium, the safest and best option for investors may be to take a wait-and-see approach. At the very least, investors may want to wait until the company releases its latest earnings to gauge demand for the Semi before deciding whether to buy the EV stock.