Michael Butler pressed on the accelerator of the Tesla Model 3 before crashing into a residential home, an investigator wrote. Mike Blake/Reuters A Texas man who drove a Tesla into a home, killing a 76-year-old woman, was pressing the accelerator pedal "all the way down" before the crash, according to an arrest affidavit filed in Harris County District Court.
On June 19, Michael David Butler, 44, crashed a Tesla Model 3 into a brick home in Harris County, Texas. 76-year-old Martha Avila, who was inside the residence, was airlifted to a hospital where she was later pronounced dead, the affidavit said.
Butler was charged with manslaughter and remains in custody at the Harris County jail, court records showed. A spokesperson for the Harris County Sheriff's Office told Business Insider the charge carries a $150,000 bond. Butler's attorney declined to comment.
Local authorities initially said that Butler told investigators he had Tesla's driver-assistance system activated, though they did not specify if it was Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised.
Following the reports, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe. Tesla executives pushed back on the initial account.
Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said in an X post that the driver "manually overrode self-driving by pressing the accelerator all the way to 100% of the accel pedal in this residential area."
A lead investigator wrote in the affidavit that he later reviewed Tesla data and video showing Bulter had been making DoorDash deliveries and activated FSD in the minutes leading up to the crash. Data showed Butler then overrode FSD and pressed the accelerator pedal moments before the fatal incident, the investigator wrote.
"In about six (6) seconds, the accelerator pedal was pressed all the way down to 100% 'pedal to the metal,' and the vehicle reached a speed of 73 miles per hour, more than double the speed limit on that residential street," the investigator wrote. "The Tesla continued straight towards the middle of the cul-de-sac, struck the curb of the complainant's driveway, and went airborne towards the front of the home."
The investigator wrote that the brake pedal was not pressed in the final minute before the crash and that no mechanical error was detected or recorded. Harris County Sheriff's Office said there were no signs of intoxication and that Butler was cooperative with the investigation.
A spokesperson for Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
Tesla's driver-assistance systems, including Autopilot and FSD, have faced legal and regulatory scrutiny.
A Florida jury found Tesla partly liable for a fatal 2019 Autopilot crash and awarded more than $242 million in damages to the involved families.
Tesla has called the verdict "wrong" and filed an appeal.
The EV maker has also drawn scrutiny over how it marketed its driver-assistance tech. A California judge ruled last year that Tesla misled consumers about its cars' autonomous capabilities through the names "Autopilot" and "Full Self-Driving."
Tesla stopped using "Autopilot" when marketing the technology in California and modified "Full Self-Driving" to indicate that driver supervision is required.
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Lloyd Lee You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
ToplineTesla’s stock price plunged on Thursday, even after the company announced surging vehicle deliveries in its second quarter that cleared analyst expectations by tens of thousands of cars, possibly signalling sustained investor hesitancy even after sales recovered in Europe.
TSLA was down about 8% by 1 p.m. EDT on Thursday.
MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Key FactsTesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the April-June quarter, easily outperforming expectations of 406,000 and up from about 358,000 deliveries in 2026’s first quarter, according to an Securities and Exchange Commission filing ahead of the company’s second quarter financial results expected later in July.
Sales also largely recovered in Europe, rising a reported 77% in markets on the continent between January and May, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
Despite the positive signs, Tesla’s stock fell after markets opened on Thursday, and was down about 8% around 1 p.m. EDT.
At least one prominent investor has a bearish outlook on the Elon Musk-helmed electric vehicle manufacturer—Michael Burry, the investor profiled in “The Big Short” who famously predicted the subprime mortgage crisis, revealed Tuesday he took a short position in the company.
Crucial Quote"And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level," Burry wrote at the end of a post on his Substack published on Tuesday. Burry’s post was primarily detailing his analysis of what he sees as a semiconductor bubble and said nothing else about Tesla. Burry didn’t reveal how large his short position against the company was, and provided no other context about the bet.
Surprising FactTesla stopped producing several of its higher end models this quarter, discontinuing its Model S and Model X vehicles and focusing on just three cars: the Model 3 sedan, the Model Y SUV and the Cybertruck. Model 3 and Model Y cars made up the clear majority of deliveries in the second quarter, according to Tesla’s data, while only 12,364 Cybertrucks were delivered.
Key BackgroundTesla faced rising backlash in Europe after President Donald Trump won the 2024 election. Consumers fled from the company as Musk took more public political stances, such as backing German far-right party AfD prior to the German elections. Sales in Europe plummeted, falling almost 27% over the course of 2025, Reuters reported.
Forbes ValuationWe estimate Elon Musk’s net worth at $972.4 billion, making him the wealthiest person in the world. His net worth has fallen by over $14 billion on Thursday, as Tesla’s stock price drops and share prices for his newly public SpaceX remain flat. SpaceX’s collapsing share price on Wednesday cost Musk about $50 billion, bringing his net worth down and making him lose his status as the world’s first trillionaire.
TangentTesla’s positive sales numbers come only days after the company's electric semi truck was involved in its first recorded fatal crash. Two people in Nevada were killed after one of Tesla’s trucks crashed into a Volkswagen Beetle about 30 miles from Tesla’s gigafactory in the state. Details about the crash are still sparse, but the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office said preliminary reports “suggest the driver of the semi may have fallen asleep.”
Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow breaks down reports that OpenAI is holding early-stage discussions about giving the US government a 5% equity stake. Plus, Tesla's delivery numbers rose 25% from a year ago, beating Wall Street's expectations by a wide margin.
Landon Swan from @LikeFolio discusses Tesla (TSLA) and why shares in the company slid even though second quarter vehicle deliveries topped expectations. After the stock pumped the brakes Thursday, Landon now believes it is fairly priced.
Tesla blew past Wall Street estimates for second-quarter deliveries on Thursday, posting a record for the period as recovering demand in Europe outweighed persistent weakness in North America.
The strong figures suggest Tesla’s mainstay auto business is regaining momentum after two straight annual sales declines, providing the spending cushion needed to power its ambitions in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence — the main drivers of the company’s roughly $1.6 trillion valuation.
Tesla expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital expenditure in 2026, nearly triple the $8.5 billion last year, to expand AI infrastructure, battery production, Cybercab manufacturing and Optimus robots.
The strong figures suggest Tesla’s mainstay auto business is regaining momentum after two straight annual sales declines, Tesla Model 3 and a person dressed in a Tesla Optimus humanoid robot, above. NurPhoto via Getty Images “I think the huge growth in Europe is the key driver for Tesla right now. US sales still appear to be down, albeit less than the broader US EV decline, while China is seeing small growth,” said Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.
Tesla’s recovery in Europe was aided by government EV incentives, faster electrification of corporate fleets, higher fuel prices and an easing of the consumer backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s far-right politics last year.
The company delivered 480,126 vehicles in the April-June period, a record for the second quarter and up about 25% from a year earlier, easily surpassing analysts’ average estimate of 402,776 vehicles, according to Visible Alpha data.
Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles during the quarter.
The deliveries exceeded production by more than 28,000 vehicles, leading the company to draw down inventory that it built up during the first quarter.
The company’s China-made EV sales have risen this year, helped by production of the refreshed Model Y, despite intense competition from BYD and other domestic automakers.
Tesla’s recovery in Europe was aided by government EV incentives, faster electrification of corporate fleets, higher fuel prices and an easing of the consumer backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s far-right politics last year. Xavier Collin/Image Press Agency / BACKGRID Shares of Austin, Texas-based Tesla were down about 6% after gaining 12% so far this week. The company said it will report quarterly results on July 22 after markets close.
Analysts said much of the optimism had already been priced in after Tesla’s shares rallied ahead of the quarterly deliveries report, resulting in a muted reaction on Thursday.
Earlier in the day, smaller rival Rivian raised its annual deliveries forecast and beat estimates for second-quarter deliveries.
Tesla has continued to roll out its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance software in Europe, although it is available in only a handful of countries.
Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles during the quarter. The deliveries exceeded production by more than 28,000 vehicles, leading the company to draw down inventory that it built up during the first quarter. AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes Analysts expect broader availability over the coming months to support demand.
The company expanded its robotaxi operations after launching a limited commercial service in Austin in June.
Musk has said the company intends to rapidly expand the service through 2026.
Production of the Cybercab, Tesla’s purpose-built autonomous vehicle without pedals or a steering wheel, is expected to ramp up later this year.
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Stock Market Skids As Trump Makes This Trade Call; Jobs Report Due The stock market rebounded strongly for the week, but with a lot of volatility. The Dow Jones and, briefly, the small-cap Russell 2000 hit all-time highs while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite rebounded above key levels. Meta Platforms (META) rallied on reports it'll sell AI computing power to outsiders, but that news hit neoclouds, chips and other AI hardware.…
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported second quarter vehicle deliveries of 480,126 and production of 451,758, surpassing Wall Street expectations as the electric vehicle maker seeks to reverse recent sales declines.
The company delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during the quarter, while deliveries of its other models totaled 12,364. Tesla produced 442,936 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles and 8,822 vehicles across its other models.
Analysts had expected deliveries of about 406,600 vehicles, according to a StreetAccount consensus, while Tesla's company-compiled consensus forecast 406,024 deliveries.
The Q2 delivery total was up about 25% from approximately 384,000 vehicles delivered in the same period last year and 34% higher than the 358,023 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2026.
Tesla also reported deploying 13.5 GWh of energy storage products during the quarter.
Despite the stronger-than-expected delivery results, Tesla shares were down 7% on Thursday morning, likely reflecting profit taking.
Key Takeaways Tesla reported substantially more second-quarter deliveries than Wall Street expected, likely a partial reflection of EV demand pushed higher by high U.S. gas prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict.Rivian also topped its own second-quarter projections, and lifted its full-year guidance.Shares of Tesla tumbled Thursday morning, while Rivian stock jumped more than 10%. Tesla's deliveries delivered today.
Elon Musk's EV company on Thursday morning said second-quarter deliveries came in above 480,000, substantially topping both Visible Alpha's average of Wall Street analysts' expectations and an average compiled by the company.1
That data—along with news that Rivian (RIVN) said its own Q2 deliveries came in higher than it expected, leading it to lift its full-year guidance—may in part reflect an uptick in EV demand driven by gas prices that were pushed higher by the U.S.-Iran conflict.2 Shares of Rivian were recently up 11%, while Tesla (TSLA) was off more than 6% in early Thursday trading.
Why This Matters to Your Money High gas prices can affect consumer behavior in a number of ways, including restraining other types of spending and sending drivers to the fuel pump more frequently for less gas. Data from the second quarter indicated that they may also have driven car buyers to EVs as they sought relief.
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded, recently a bit above $3.80 according to AAA data, is down from a month ago but well above year-earlier levels.3 (Here's Investopedia's take on what to expect from gas prices over the balance of 2026.)
Some market experts think gas prices might have had little effect on second-quarter buying habits. "Although there is a tremendous amount of economic and policy uncertainty these days, the new-vehicle market seems to be relatively unfazed," Cox Automotive said last month. 4
Tesla shares had an interesting first half to 2026. They rose about 13% in the second quarter, slightly underperforming the S&P 500, but they were down for the year while the benchmark index rose nearly 10%. More broadly, the Magnificent 7 group of stocks, of which Tesla is a member, retreated over the first six months of the year, reflecting some unease about the health of the Big Tech rally.
CEO Elon Musk has sought to retrain investors from thinking of Tesla as an EV company, encouraging focus on emerging lines of business such as autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and robots. Some market watchers, meanwhile, believe the company's long-term future is as a division of SpaceX (SPCX), which Musk brought to public markets last month. Both companies are among the world's most valuable.
Shares of SpaceX, meanwhile, were up about 1% Thursday morning at $159. They're holding above the $150 price at which they started trading on IPO day three weeks ago; earlier this week, the company picked up fresh Wall Street analyst coverage, with Wedbush setting a $190 price target on the shares. That's well above recent levels, but below the stock's post-IPO highs.
Employees work at the Tesla Gigafactory during a government-organised media trip in Shanghai, China, April 14, 2026. REUTERS/Go Nakamura Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesBEIJING, July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla's (TSLA.O), opens new tab China-made electric vehicle sales rose for an eighth month in June, supported by an extended recovery in the U.S. automaker's European sales.
Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles made in its Shanghai plant, which is also an export hub for Europe, grew 24.4% from a year earlier to 89,091 units, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed on Thursday. The increase followed a 39.4% gain in May.
Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.
For the second quarter, Tesla's combined China sales and exports from the Shanghai factory were up 32.8% year-on-year.
Later on Thursday, the EV specialist is expected to report a 5% year-over-year increase in global vehicle deliveries to 402,780 vehicles over the past quarter, buoyed by stronger demand in Europe where a spike in fuel prices following the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has prompted more consumers to turn to EVs.
The recovery in Europe and resilient demand in China are expected to help offset declining sales in North America.
Even so, the results could leave the door for its biggest Chinese rival, BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab, to retake the title of the world's top EV seller after briefly ceding it to Tesla in the first quarter.
BYD, which posted a second consecutive month of sales growth in June, sold 557,090 battery-electric vehicles globally in the second quarter, underlining the strength of its overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, as it seeks to diversify beyond China's fiercely competitive domestic market.
Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Ju-min Park; editing by Barbara Lewis and Louise Heavens
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
For a stock that has spent much of the past few weeks looking heavy and technically fragile, Tesla Inc NASDAQ: TSLA is having an impressive turnaround. Until recently, its shares had been struggling to shake off a run of unhelpful headlines, from the fresh NHTSA probe to broader macro uncertainty, and looked in real danger of forming a proper downtrend.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found no crashes tied to the issues and that they posed only a low safety risk and were addressed in software updates.
AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the second quarter, we produced over 450,000 vehicles, delivered over 480,000 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage products.
Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve these results.
Q2 2026
Production
Deliveries
Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y
442,936
467,762
2%
Other Models
8,822
12,364
2%
Total
451,758
480,126
2%
Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 after market close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2026 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.
What: Tesla Q2 2026 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q2 2026 Update: https://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: https://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.
For additional information, please visit https://ir.tesla.com.
Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q2 earnings. Tesla vehicle deliveries and storage deployments represent only two measures of the Company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including average selling price, cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and others as to be disclosed in the 10-Q for the quarter ended on June 30, 2026.
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Elon Musk has bet Tesla's future on its Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot. Christian Marquardt - Pool/Getty Images Tesla's sales are bouncing back — with a little help from high gas prices.
The EV giant delivered 480,126 EVs in the second quarter, up 25% year-over-year, in a sign that Tesla sales have largely recovered from a wave of anti-Elon Musk backlash in 2025 and a steep decline in the wider US EV market.
The sales figures came in way above Wall Street's expectations. A Bloomberg consensus of Wall Street analyst predictions estimated Tesla would sell 396,466 EVs, while a company-compiled consensus suggested deliveries would reach 406,024 vehicles.
Tesla's share price rose nearly 2% in premarket trading on the sales numbers, before paring back gains.
Like many of its rivals, Tesla has been battling a so-called "EV winter" in the US following the end of the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles in September.
Total US electric vehicle sales fell 27% in the first three months of the year, according to data from Cox Automotive, and a wave of electric vehicle models has since vanished from the market as automakers roll back ambitious EV targets amid weak demand.
However, a spike in gas prices due to the war in the Middle East appears to have given the industry a shot in the arm. Data from Kelley Blue Book, an automotive research firm, estimates EV sales in the US topped 85,000 in May, the highest since the EV tax credit was scrapped in September 2025.
In February, before the war began, average US gas prices were just under $3 per gallon. They peaked in May at about $4.56 per gallon, according to AAA.
Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, Cox Automotive's director of industry insights, told Business Insider that Tesla's second-quarter sales have been boosted by high gas prices.
That boost mainly came from markets like Europe, which have seen an EV sales boom in recent months, Valdez-Streaty said. Meanwhile, she added, growth of alternative fuel vehicles in the US has been focused on hybrids — which Tesla doesn't sell.
"If you think about the European market and the Chinese market, Tesla definitely benefited from those high gas prices," she said.
In a June note, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that they expect EV adoption to accelerate in the coming years, ultimately pushing oil prices down.
All eyes on robotaxisFor Tesla, the latest figures show that its underlying EV business remains strong, even as the company pivots away from it.
In January, Musk said Tesla would end production of its premium Model S and X vehicles to free up factory space for its Optimus humanoid robot, which is set to start production this summer.
Tesla is also ramping up production of its Cybercab, a gold-colored robotaxi that doesn't have a steering wheel or pedals. The company's wider robotaxi rollout has been sluggish so far, however, with only a few dozen vehicles operating in Austin, Houston, and Dallas a year after the service began.
The Tesla Cybercab is key to Tesla's robotaxi ambitions. Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images The EV pioneer has been eclipsed in recent weeks by Musk's other public company, SpaceX, which raised $85 billion in a record-breaking IPO and is now valued at almost $480 billion more than Tesla.
SpaceX's stock market surge has led some Tesla investors to suggest that the two companies should merge. Speaking before SpaceX went public, the rocket maker's president, Gwynne Shotwell, didn't rule it out.
"That might make Elon's life a little easier, actually," she said.
"There's no question that there's synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures, definitely, there's a convergence of a kind of what we're all trying to accomplish in the future," Shotwell added.
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Tom Carter You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
A Tesla electric vehicle is parked at a Tesla dealership, after Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, in Berlin, Germany April 23, 2025. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesEurope rebound followed last year's slump, partly linked by analysts to Musk's politicsDeliveries topped production by over 28,000 vehicles, reducing inventory buildupTesla will report quarterly results on July 22 after markets closeCo expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital expenditure in 2026July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab blew past Wall Street estimates for second-quarter deliveries on Thursday, posting a record for the period as recovering demand in Europe outweighed persistent weakness in North America.
The strong figures suggest Tesla's mainstay auto business is regaining momentum after two straight annual sales declines, providing the spending cushion needed to power its ambitions in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence - the main drivers of the company's roughly $1.6 trillion valuation.
Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.
Tesla expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital expenditure in 2026, nearly triple the $8.5 billion last year, to expand AI infrastructure, battery production, Cybercab manufacturing and Optimus robots.
"I think the huge growth in Europe is the key driver for Tesla right now. US sales still appear to be down, albeit less than the broader US EV decline, while China is seeing small growth," said Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.
Tesla's recovery in Europe was aided by government EV incentives, faster electrification of corporate fleets, higher fuel prices and an easing of the consumer backlash over CEO Elon Musk's far-right politics last year.
The company delivered 480,126 vehicles in the April-June period, a record for the second quarter and up about 25% from a year earlier, easily surpassing analysts' average estimate of 402,776 vehicles, according to Visible Alpha data.
Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles during the quarter. The deliveries exceeded production by more than 28,000 vehicles, leading the company to draw down inventory that it built up during the first quarter.
The company's China-made EV sales have risen this year, helped by production of the refreshed Model Y, despite intense competition from BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab and other domestic automakers.
Shares of Austin, Texas-based Tesla were down about 2% after gaining 12% so far this week. The company said it will report quarterly results on July 22 after markets close.
Analysts said much of the optimism had already been priced in after Tesla's shares rallied ahead of the quarterly deliveries report, resulting in a muted reaction on Thursday.
Earlier in the day, smaller rival Rivian raised its annual deliveries forecast and beat estimates for second-quarter deliveries.
Tesla has continued to roll out its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance software in Europe, although it is available in only a handful of countries. Analysts expect broader availability over the coming months to support demand.
The company expanded its robotaxi operations after launching a limited commercial service in Austin in June. Musk has said the company intends to rapidly expand the service through 2026.
Production of the Cybercab, Tesla's purpose-built autonomous vehicle without pedals or a steering wheel, is expected to ramp up later this year.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
Tesla reported vehicle deliveries and production levels for the second quarter that far exceeded Wall Street expectations, as Elon Musk's automaker tries to rebound from consecutive annual declines in auto sales.
Here are the key numbers:
Total Q2 vehicle deliveries: 480,126Total Q2 vehicle production: 451,758Analysts were expecting around 406,600 deliveries, according to StreetAccount's consensus. Tesla's company-compiled consensus published last week was 406,024 deliveries.
In the same period last year, Tesla reported around 384,000 deliveries, and in the first quarter of 2026, the number came in at 358,023.
Thursday's update showed a 25% year-over-year increase, and 34% increase versus the first quarter in deliveries for Tesla.
Shares of Musk's EV maker sank about 4% on Thursday.
Tesla doesn't break out exact delivery numbers by region or individual model, but the company said its entry-level Model 3 sedan and most popular Model Y SUVs accounted for 467,762, or 97% of its deliveries. Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in its shareholder communications.
Tesla is trying to recover from consecutive annual declines in vehicle sales that were partly caused by a consumer backlash against Musk, the world's wealthiest person, and by the loss of a U.S. federal tax credit. Musk's incendiary political rhetoric, endorsements of anti-immigrant extremists in Europe, and his work with the Trump administration to shrink the federal workforce drove away some prospective EV buyers.
Read more CNBC tech newsMeta's push into cloud computing means Wall Street has to prepare for lower marginsChip stocks that notched record rallies in second quarter start Q3 with a dudPlayStation will end physical disc production for new games in 2028Employers who laid off workers citing AI are already starting to regret itMeanwhile, Chinese automakers like BYD, Nio and Xiaomi came to market with an array of more affordable, and high-tech EVs, while Tesla also faced increased competition from South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group and European EV makers including Volkswagen.
To revitalize sales, Tesla started selling lower-cost versions of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, and more recently made its driver assistance systems, marketed under the brand name Full Self-Driving (Supervised), available in some European markets.
The biggest boon for the company in the quarter may have been soaring gas prices resulting from the war in Iran. European car buyers purchased more Tesla and other EVs in the first half of the year. However, oil prices are now back near where they were trading before the war began in February, in response to a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran, and diplomatic efforts to bring the conflict to a lasting conclusion.
In the U.S., car buyers have pulled back from fully electric vehicles, and are embracing hybrids, according to Dan Hearsch, managing director at AlixPartners.
"We have a huge country, and people live far away from each other compared to Europe where the charging infrastructure is better and people don't have to drive quite so far," Hearsch said.
In the second half of the year, inflation, shifting trade policy, the rising cost of chips and other components may pose the biggest challenges to U.S. automakers, he added.
Tesla stock chart.
Musk has directed Tesla to focus on ramping production and sales of its Semi electric trucks, and to start production of its driverless Cybercab. The company is also looking to begin production of its Optimus humanoid robots.
In Tesla's first quarter investor update, the company said it was "optimizing" its vehicle portfolio, "with an emphasis on vehicles designed for a fully autonomous future" and expected "volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year."
Tesla said in January that it would stop producing its flagship Model S and X vehicles, and would use their factory lines in Fremont, California to build Optimus units.
In its Energy business, which installs solar photovoltaics and sells battery energy storage systems, Tesla said it deployed 13.5 GWh in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 9.6 Gwh a year ago. Analysts expected 13.3 GWh.
Musk's SpaceX, which owns xAI, bought $269 million worth of Tesla Megapacks in April, according to its IPO filing. SpaceX is using the Megapacks to reduce xAI's electricity costs at its power-hungry data centers in and around Memphis, Tennessee.
In the second quarter deliveries report, Tesla did not disclose whether related-party transactions contributed to the strong numbers. Last year, SpaceX spent $131 million purchasing Tesla Cybertrucks. That dollar amount represented a large portion of the 20,237 Cybertrucks Tesla sold in 2025, according to Kelley Blue Book.
As of Wednesday's close, Tesla shares were down about 5% this year, while the Nasdaq was up 12%.
Tesla plans to report second-quarter financial results on Wednesday, July 22, after the market's close.
There have been a lot of bears on the tail of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) in the past several years, but the name has proven quite punishing to short. Now that Dr. Michael Burry of The Big Short fame doesn’t have to answer to any investors (he’s moved on from Scion), it feels like the man is now able to place bearish bets against companies that he fundamentally believes are at risk of a tumble or even a crash.
Of course, Dr. Burry is a brilliant man who made one of the best trades of all-time in the face of the housing meltdown of 2008. But like so many other investment greats, his batting average is not perfect and, on occasion, he’ll strike out. In any case, I do think the man has a strong case for placing bearish bets against Tesla at north of $416 per share.
Tesla shares are picking up traction. But standing in front of a potential breakout is risky The recent spike in the release of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 Lite release, I think, might be a tad overdone. At the end of the day, Tesla still has a lot to prove as Optimus, the Terafab, and its custom silicon look to hit the spot. At these heightened valuations, there is certainly no room for error. But, then again, it’s Tesla and Elon Musk we’re talking about.
Fans of the firm and Mr. Musk are among the most patient of investors in the world. Call them diamond hands, if you will, but they’re willing to stick around for the long run as they buy into Mr. Musk’s long-term vision of the future.
Could it be that Mr. Musk’s exceptional stewardship is worth more than 300 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), as he splits his time across Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX)?
As always, time will tell. Maybe one day Tesla and SpaceX will merge into one — a move that I think would make the most sense, given robots, AI, chips, orbital data centers, and lunar production all seem to fit into the same basket.
Why I wouldn’t follow Dr. Burry’s new big short While Dr. Burry’s latest Tesla short should have investors asking questions about what could go wrong as the price of admission starts to swell again, I still think that Dr. Burry’s moves and words should not be taken as any form of gospel.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Despite its lofty valuation, Tesla has and will probably continue to be tough to short. That is, unless some of the big, ambitious projects that lie ahead run into a few hurdles. The company is taking a huge risk to get a better seat in the physical AI race.
But, then again, high risk tends to accompany high reward, and if there’s a man who’s shown he can execute, it’s Elon Musk. Though, he’s known to be quite aggressive with the timing. As AI moves down an exponential curve, rather than a linear one, though, maybe Mr. Musk will be right to move with such aggression, as he turns his vision, deep pockets, and speed of execution into a tremendous first-mover’s advantage.
When it comes to AI and robotics, much of the spoils are bound to go to the firms that are willing to take risks, move fast, and shoot high. In that regard, I’d be pretty hesitant to follow anyone into a short position on shares of Tesla.
The bottom line Still, at these valuations, I think it’s not hard to dismiss the bear-case scenario, especially if interest rates are destined to go higher from here, and if delays hit Cybercab, Optimus, or EV sales.
Add dilution into the equation, and it certainly feels like Dr. Burry might just get the timing right with his new short position. Personally, I wouldn’t go long or short in a name that’s a fierce tug of war between the bulls and the bears.
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Image Credits:Tesla Tesla delivered more than 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, an increase of more than 120,000 from the first quarter, in a sign that the company is still able to attract new buyers for its EVs despite a downturn in the U.S. market.
The company said Thursday that it built 451,758 in the second quarter, 442,936 of which were Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs. It delivered 467,762 of those vehicles, with the remaining 12,364 being “other models” — which includes the Cybertruck and the final-production Model S sedans and Model X SUVs. It was the company’s best second quarter by raw delivery numbers ever, and easily outpaced Wall Street’s expectations.
It’s Tesla’s best quarter for overall sales since the third quarter of 2025, when it shipped just shy of 500,000 vehicles around the world. And while the company still has an uphill battle to stop a two-year trend of declining overall sales, the second quarter results show Tesla is finding ways — through geographic expansion, and cheaper versions of the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck — to buck that trend.
Tesla TSLA reported second-quarter vehicle deliveries that comfortably exceeded Wall Street expectations on Thursday, signaling a significant rebound in demand as the electric-vehicle maker navigates an increasingly competitive global market.
The company delivered 480,126 vehicles worldwide during the second quarter, according to a statement released Thursday.
The result came in well above analyst expectations. FactSet estimates had pointed to deliveries of approximately 409,000 vehicles, while Tesla's company-compiled consensus forecast stood at roughly 406,000 units.
The stronger-than-expected performance marks a notable recovery for Tesla after a challenging period.
Vehicle sales came under pressure from slowing electric-vehicle demand, rising competition, and political controversies surrounding Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.
Deliveries increased 25% from a year earlier, when Tesla faced consumer backlash linked to Musk's work with the Trump administration.
Despite the stronger-than-expected deliveries, Tesla shares fell nearly 3% in Thursday morning trading as investors took profits following a sharp rally in recent sessions.
The stock remains up roughly 11% over the past five trading days, suggesting much of the delivery upside had already been anticipated.
Morningstar noted that the company's vehicle mix continued to shift toward its mass-market offerings, with Tesla delivering 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during the quarter.
The firm also pointed to Tesla's energy storage business, where deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours, up from both a year ago and the previous quarter but slightly below analyst expectations of 13.8 GWh.
Investors are now awaiting Tesla's full second-quarter results on July 22 for additional details on profitability and business performance.
China made EV sales also remain strongFresh data also showed continued momentum at its Shanghai manufacturing hub, which supplies both the Chinese market and export destinations across Europe.
Data released Thursday by the China Passenger Car Association showed that deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced at Tesla's Shanghai factory rose 24.4% year over year in June to 89,091 units.
The increase followed a 39.4% gain recorded in May.
For the second quarter as a whole, Tesla's combined China sales and exports from the Shanghai facility increased 32.8% compared with the same period last year.
The results suggest Tesla's recovery in Europe also continued during the quarter, helping offset broader concerns about slowing growth in the global electric-vehicle market.
Despite the strong delivery performance, investor attention has increasingly shifted beyond Tesla's traditional automotive business.
Many shareholders are focused on Musk's longer-term strategy centered on artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics.
Tesla is investing heavily in projects including its Cybercab autonomous vehicle platform and Optimus humanoid robots, initiatives that many investors view as potentially more important to the company's long-term valuation than vehicle sales alone.
Speculation has also grown around the possibility of a future combination between Tesla and SpaceX following the rocket company's blockbuster initial public offering last month.
Even as investors look toward those future opportunities, Tesla's vehicle business remains a critical source of cash generation.
Maintaining strong delivery growth is particularly important as the company significantly increases spending on new initiatives.
Tesla plans to invest more than $25 billion this year, roughly three times the amount spent last year, as it expands manufacturing capacity and accelerates development of autonomous vehicles, robotics, and related technologies.
Tesla also received favorable regulatory news on Thursday.
The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it had closed a preliminary evaluation launched in 2022 involving approximately 695,000 Tesla vehicles over reports of unexpected deceleration.
The investigation covered Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
According to the agency, the decision was based on a low demonstrated hazard to drivers and a substantial decline in incident reports following software updates introduced by Tesla in early 2022.
NHTSA said reported incidents fell from roughly 300 cases when the investigation began to 45 reports in 2024, 19 in 2025, and just three so far in 2026.
The regulator added that the reported conditions did not alter vehicle lane positioning or create significant reductions in following distance that could lead to collisions.
The development follows another recent regulatory decision.
Last week, NHTSA separately closed an expanded investigation involving an estimated 376,241 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles over concerns related to loss of steering control.
Together, the strong delivery numbers and regulatory developments provided Tesla with a series of positive headlines as the company continues balancing a recovering automotive business with ambitious investments in artificial intelligence, autonomy, and robotics.
Tesla Model 3 vehicles are shown for sale at a Tesla facility in Long Beach, California, U.S., May 22, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Thursday said it had closed its 2022 preliminary evaluation into 695,000 Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab vehicles over unexpected deceleration, citing low demonstrated hazard to drivers and a substantial drop in incidents.
Here are a few details:
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The investigation covered Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
NHTSA said that Tesla had released software updates in early 2022 to target unexpected deceleration.
Incident reports declined to 45 in 2024, 19 in 2025, and three since the start of 2026, according to the auto safety regulator. There were 300 such reports when the investigation was opened.
The regulator said the reported conditions did not alter the vehicle’s lateral positioning in their lanes and did not cause significant loss in distance between the subject and following vehicle to lead to a collision.
Last week, NHTSA had separately closed an expanded probe covering an estimated 376,241 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles over loss of steering control.
Reporting by Disha Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
A Tesla Semi was involved in a fatal crash that killed two people on June 28, 2026, in Dayton, Nevada.
Tesla
Tesla’s new electric Semi was involved in a crash earlier this week that killed two people, the first known fatal accident involving the carmaker’s newest model, which just went into regular production this year.
According to reports from the Nevada Highway Patrol and Lyon County Sheriff’s Department, the 10-ton Tesla truck slammed into a small, vintage Volkswagen Beetle at an intersection on U.S. 50 in Dayton, Nevada, around 7:20 a.m. local time. Both occupants of the Beetle, who aren’t identified in the initial reports, died from injuries resulting from the crash, Trooper James LaRose told Forbes. The driver of the Tesla truck wasn’t injured.
The cause of the accident, which took place about 30 miles southwest of Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory, which builds the Semi, hasn’t yet been determined, LaRose said. However, a Facebook post by the Sheriff’s Department said, “preliminary statements obtained at the scene suggest the driver of the semi may have fallen asleep.”
Tesla is counting on the Semi to expand its vehicle sales beyond the consumer market and to take on diesel trucking giants such as Kenworth, Volvo and Daimler with an electric model capable of hauling 60,000-pound loads up to 500 miles per charge. The company hasn’t yet disclosed Semi sales so far this year, but may include them in a quarterly release expected on July 2.
The company says the truck is equipped with the latest safety features, including 10 cameras to monitor its surroundings and, according to media reports, a driver-monitoring system. Typically, such systems are designed to detect when the person at the wheel is distracted or sleeping. “Semi comes standard with active safety features that pair with advanced motor and brake controls to deliver traction and stability in all conditions,” according to Tesla’s website.
Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the crash.
The Highway Patrol’s LaRose wasn’t able to confirm whether the Tesla was hauling a load at the time of the accident. Fully loaded, the electric cab and trailer can weigh up to 82,000 pounds – 40 times the VW’s weight.
The crash shut down a portion of U.S. 50 for about two hours, according to police. Investigators expect to provide further details early next week, LaRose said. The crash was reported earlier by The Record-Courier of Minden, Nevada, and local news site CarsonNow.
More From ForbesForbesTesla Semi’s Biggest Rival Might Be Its Chinese TwinBy Alan Ohnsman
ForbesTesla’s Semi Is Finally Hitting The Road. The Timing Couldn’t Be WorseBy Alan Ohnsman
Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry.
When looking at the last two reports, this electric car maker has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 12.50%, on average, in the last two quarters.
For the last reported quarter, Tesla came out with earnings of $0.41 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.36 per share, representing a surprise of 13.89%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.45 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.5 per share, delivering a surprise of 11.11%.
Price and EPS Surprise
For Tesla, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner.
When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Tesla stock TSLA rose on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the electric-vehicle maker's closely watched second-quarter delivery report.
Improving European sales data supported sentiment on Wednesday despite broader weakness across technology stocks.
Shares of Tesla gained in early trading even as much of the technology sector moved lower. The stock was up around 2%.
The broader market was mixed. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points.
Technology stocks were under pressure, with Micron falling 6%, Sandisk dropping 8%, Nvidia losing roughly 2%, and Broadcom declining about 1%. SpaceX shares also fell more than 6%.
Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter vehicle deliveries on Thursday, a release that could prove pivotal for investor sentiment after several years of slowing growth.
Wall Street estimates vary considerably.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla to deliver approximately 409,000 vehicles during the quarter.
Bloomberg's consensus estimate is closer to 400,000 vehicles, while Tesla's own company-compiled consensus stands at roughly 406,000 units.
The wide range of forecasts highlights uncertainty around demand trends during a quarter shaped by geopolitical tensions, elevated fuel prices, and the continued impact of changes to US electric-vehicle incentives.
A stronger-than-expected result could mark Tesla's second consecutive quarter of year-over-year delivery growth.
The company has not achieved back-to-back quarters of annual delivery growth since 2024.
Growth remains a key challengeTesla's vehicle business has faced a difficult period following years of rapid expansion.
Annual deliveries peaked at approximately 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 before declining in both 2024 and 2025.
Wall Street currently expects Tesla to return to modest growth in 2026, with annual deliveries projected at roughly 1.7 million vehicles.
Several factors have contributed to the slowdown.
Tesla elected not to pursue an all-new lower-priced vehicle platform, instead prioritizing development of its Cybercab robotaxi program.
The company has also faced the impact of the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric-vehicle purchase tax credit, which increased costs for many US consumers.
At the same time, rising gasoline prices provided some support for electric-vehicle demand during the second quarter.
Adding to optimism ahead of the delivery report, new data released Wednesday showed Tesla registrations continued to improve across several European markets during June.
Registrations, which are widely viewed as a proxy for sales, rose 39% in Denmark, 56% in Sweden, and 5.6% in Spain, according to data from bilstatistik.dk, Mobility Sweden, and ANFAC.
In France, registrations more than doubled from a year earlier, according to automotive industry body PFA.
The figures suggest Tesla's European business may be recovering after a challenging period during which the company lost market share amid growing competition from Chinese manufacturers, a relatively limited product lineup, and consumer reactions to Chief Executive Elon Musk's political positions.
Norway was a notable exception. Tesla registrations there fell 43% from a year earlier, according to data from compiler OFV.
Market observers attributed part of the decline to demand being pulled forward ahead of changes to electric-vehicle incentives scheduled for 2026.
Investors have increasingly positioned for a stronger quarter.
Heading into Wednesday's session, Tesla shares had gained 10.8% during the week following consecutive advances on Monday and Tuesday.
The rally suggests investors expect the company to deliver results that support the narrative of stabilizing vehicle demand, even as much of Tesla's long-term valuation remains tied to future opportunities in autonomous driving, robotaxis, and artificial intelligence.
With delivery estimates spread across a wide range and expectations elevated following the recent share-price gains, Thursday's report is likely to be a significant catalyst for the stock.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) and Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) both posted Q1 2026 results that beat Wall Street estimates, yet the businesses underneath are on opposite ends of the EV maturity curve.
Tesla flexed margin expansion and AI ambition. Rivian leaned on partnerships and a fresh product launch to bridge to profitability. Comparing them now, with R2 shipping and Robotaxi rides live in Texas, finally feels useful.
Margins Carry Tesla. R2 Carries Rivian. Tesla pulled in $22.387 billion in revenue, up 15.78% YoY, with automotive gross margin expanding to 21.1% from 16.2%. Lower material costs, a higher average selling price, and a roughly $0.9 billion FX tailwind did the heavy lifting. Services and Other revenue jumped 42% as active FSD subscriptions hit 1.28 million, up 51%. Software is becoming a real, material line item.
Rivian delivered 10,365 vehicles, a 20% jump, and revenue of $1.381 billion. The catch: the automotive segment swung to a $62 million gross loss from a $92 million profit a year earlier, hurt by a $100 million drop in regulatory credits and a heavier commercial van mix.
Software and Services climbed 49% to $473 million, almost entirely thanks to the Volkswagen joint venture work. CEO RJ Scaringe framed the quarter around the R2 launch and the $4.5 billion DOE loan for the Georgia plant.
Self-Funded Empire vs. Partnership-Funded Bet Lens Tesla Rivian Cash on hand $44.74B $4.83B (with committed funding) Q1 Free Cash Flow +$1.44B -$1.08B Autonomy bet FSD + Robotaxi in Dallas/Houston Up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis for Uber Robotics bet Optimus (1M/yr Fremont line) Mind Robotics (deconsolidated) Tesla is building its own semiconductor fab with SpaceX and ramping LFP cells in Nevada.
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Rivian is leaning on a $1 billion VW equity check, a $1.25 billion Uber commitment through 2031, and a DOE loan that does not start drawing until early 2027. Two very different risk profiles.
The Next Test Is R2 Volume and FSD Conversion Rivian guided to 62,000 to 67,000 deliveries and adjusted EBITDA between -$2.10 billion and -$1.80 billion. The R2 bill of materials is expected to land at roughly 50% of R1, which is the entire profitability thesis.
Tesla offered no formal guidance, but Cybercab pilot production, Megapack 3, and the EU rollout of FSD are the catalysts I am tracking. Prediction markets currently skew toward a strong Q2 delivery print.
Why I Lean Tesla for Compounding, Rivian for the Lottery Ticket Personally, I find Tesla’s setup more defensible. A 345 trailing P/E is uncomfortable, and the stock is down 8.42% year to date, but the combination of expanding auto margins, growing FSD subscriptions, and a self-funded AI roadmap is hard to replicate.
Rivian intrigues me as a turnaround. Shares trade near $16.81, and if R2 hits its cost targets, the upside is large. I would still want one clean quarter of automotive gross profit before sizing it as anything more than a speculative slice. If input costs spike or EV credits get cut, I would step back from both.
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Tesla is once again the ticker every headline is chasing, riding a 10.22% one-week rip on robotaxi buzz and Optimus promises. But here’s what you should actually be watching.
The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) story requires you to pay 416x earnings for a company whose full-year 2025 revenue fell 2.93%, whose annual net income dropped 46.79%, and whose deliveries declined 9% for the year. That is a story stock trading at a growth stock’s multiple, and the story keeps slipping to the right. Prediction markets currently assign a 0.5% probability to a California robotaxi launch by June 30, 2026, and a 0.1% probability to an Optimus release in the same window. The composite sentiment score has dropped 17.67 points in the past 7 days. Tesla trades at $420.60, down 6.48% year-to-date, while the promises get pushed into 2026 and beyond.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the cash machine hiding in plain sight while everyone stares at Cybercab renderings. Three reasons the smart money is quietly stacking Apple.
1. Valuation Sanity on a Proven Business Apple trades at roughly 38x earnings. Tesla trades at 416x. You are paying nearly ten times less per dollar of earnings for a business generating a 171.4% return on equity and a 32.0% operating margin, compared with Tesla’s 4.6% operating margin and 4.9% ROE. That premium leaves little margin for a robotaxi fleet that regulators have not approved.
2. A Capital Return Machine Tesla Cannot Match Apple’s board just authorized a fresh $100 billion buyback and lifted the dividend 4%. In fiscal 2025, Apple repurchased $90.71 billion of its own stock and returned roughly $32 billion to shareholders in Q1 26 alone. Tesla offers no dividend and no buyback. For an investor who wants cash flowing back to them rather than into humanoid robot production lines, this is not close.
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3. Real Growth Happening Now Apple just posted its 8th consecutive EPS beat: $2.01 versus $1.94 consensus on $111.18 billion in revenue, up 16.6% year over year. iPhone revenue hit $56.99 billion on what Tim Cook called “extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup“. Services set another all-time record at $30.98 billion. Every geographic segment posted double-digit growth. Greater China alone surged to $25.53 billion in Q1 26 from $18.51 billion the prior year. Meanwhile Tesla’s automotive revenue fell 11% in Q4 25.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy with a $380 price target, calling Apple’s AI reset “underappreciated.” Apple shares are up 41.6% over the past year and 1,225.63% over the past decade. This is a compounder with 2.5 billion active devices and a Services annuity that keeps hitting records.
For investors weighing story-driven promises against demonstrated cash generation, the contrast between the two names is worth tracking.
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Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) have been picking up in recent sessions, now close to 13% in just three sessions. Undoubtedly, just because Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) is the new hot Elon Musk stock in town does not mean shares of the EV juggernaut are going to be stuck going sideways for a while longer.
With the ambitious Terafab, a foundry, and some very impressive next-generation AI chips on the horizon, questions linger as to whether Tesla shares can outrun SpaceX. Certainly, SpaceX had its IPO at a fairly hefty price, and the price of admission has only grown since.
In any case, Tesla’s transition from EV maker to robotics innovator and AI chip play is already well underway. And arguably, the company has already delivered some pretty impressive innovations early on in its shifting of the gears.
The AI5 chip is jaw-droppingly impressive With the AI5 chip coming later in the year and the AI6 chip to follow, perhaps Tesla is the ultimate physical AI play and a more exciting bet than SpaceX, as Elon Musk looks to reduce its dependence on others as structural forces continue to make it tougher to get a spot on the production line. Given that AI demand could keep going from here, perhaps going down the route of a fab is the most logical thing to do, despite the price of the undertaking, the time it’ll take, and the very limited room for error.
In terms of breakthrough, the AI5 chip built on the 3nm process looks seriously impressive as the AI world moves into an inference inflection point. With reports of a 40x performance boost, it certainly feels like Tesla is the Magnificent Seven member with some of the most mouth-watering benchmarks.
Of course, it’s still early, but if the architecture behind the AI5 chip delivers, it’s not all too far-fetched to envision Tesla’s custom silicon stepping up to the plate as a serious challenger to Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance. Of course, Nvidia’s not ignoring the opportunity at the edge either. Its RTX Spark superchip is every bit as impressive.
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However, at the end of the day, Tesla’s chips are all about efficiency rather than raw power.
When it comes to the edge, perhaps surgical precision beats brute force. And with an army of Optimus humanoid robots on the way, as well as Tesla’s robotaxi opportunity, Tesla’s custom silicon is already going to find a home in some seriously impressive embodied AI products. Any way you look at it, it looks like Tesla is about to become a disruptor again as it beckons in the age of robotics.
The road ahead looks bright for Tesla as several catalysts align With a massive data moat and a recent “40x performance boost” milestone in the books, it feels like Tesla might be the underestimated AI chip play that might just pull to the very front of the pack in this AI race. And with the 2nm AI6 chip to follow, count me as unsurprised if Tesla finds a way to silence the doubters as it finds huge success driving right into the age of robotics.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 Lite has been released for Hardware 3 vehicles, And it finally feels like Tesla is finally delivering on its wild promises. The big question for investors moving forward is whether Optimus, Terafab, and the custom silicon roadmap will also be a success, even when the odds of failure are so high. It’s tough to say, but if you’re a Musk believer, I do think Tesla now looks a whole lot more interesting after its latest sudden surge.
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While shareholders might have welcomed Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock’s weekly 11% climb to $420.60, the climb is merely a temporary move ahead of a continued decline in the long run, at least judging by ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry’s latest market bet.
Specifically, the legendary short trader wrote on June 30 that TSLA equity’s rally finally enabled him to make a bearish trade against Elon Musk’s older public company while it was at $416.22:
And finally I shorted Tesla (TSLA) at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.
Notably, Burry did not disclose the scale of his bet nor any other details in his premium Substack post titled ‘Trading Post June 30th, 2026.’
It did, however, reveal that the famous short-seller might be uncertain regarding the depth of Tesla’s incoming correction as he was, apparently, unwilling to take a position near the June 26 closing price of $379.71, or even June 29’s $411.84.
Tesla stock price one-week chart. Source: Google 2026 Tesla stock price performance Meanwhile, investor confidence in TSLA shares appears to be, at best, shaken in recent months. Indeed, after the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s equity soared toward $500 in late 2025, exceeding both the 2024 and 2021 highs, subsequent trading has been mostly bearish.
Even with the latest 11% upward move, Tesla stock remains 3.99% in the red year-to-date (YTD), and the July 30 pre-market might already be proving Burry’s assessment correct, considering that, by press time, the company is 0.67% down to $417.79.
So far, the deteriorating sentiment is most likely the result of dwindling EV sales and the perpetually shifting timetable for the ‘Robotaxi’ and FSD – autonomous driving system – rollout, but is also likely linked to the capital-hungry and recent SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO).
Michael Burry shorted these stocks at the end of Q2, 2026 Elsewhere, Michael Burry revealed that Tesla is far from the only company he considers overvalued at the end of the second quarter (Q2) of 2026.
In the June 30 update on Substack, he disclosed taking a short position against Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) at $1,060.98, Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) at $729.40, and the popular iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) at $642.80.
Lastly, Burry appears to have doubled down on his bet against Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) as he disclosed a bearish position at $198.09 in the June 30 trade update.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock was down about 6% this year and up about 32% over the past 12 months. (Loic Venance / AFP via Getty Images)
Tesla is set to report deliveries over a period that included a war, soaring oil prices, and the ongoing effects of U.S. electric-vehicle policy changes.
HomeIndustriesAutomobilesEurope should be a source of strength when Tesla posts its second-quarter delivery numbers later this weekJuly 1, 2026, 7:30 a.m. ET
Tesla is set to report second-quarter sales on Thursday, with Wall Street forecasting limited growth as the U.S. electric-vehicle market struggles to show a meaningful bounce.
The company is expected to have sold between 401,000 and 406,024 vehicles in the just-completed second quarter, implying growth of up to 5.7% from a year earlier, according to analysts. That would also reflect an improvement from earlier in the year, when Tesla TSLA reported disappointing March quarter sales.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +4.15%) and Tesla (TSLA +2.23%) are often compared because Elon Musk is the founder, CEO, and largest individual shareholder of both companies. And now that SpaceX is public, some investors are trying to decide which stock is the better buy. They may also be wondering whether one hypothetical that has been getting widely discussed -- a SpaceX-Tesla merger -- makes sense.
Considering that in the short time that is has been public, SpaceX briefly soared as high as 50% above the $150 per share price at which it opened its first day of trading, some investors may even be wondering whether a SpaceX stock split is in the cards for the relatively near future or if it is more likely to wait a decade to conduct its first split like Tesla did. Here's what could lead to a SpaceX stock split, and if the growth stock is a buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A primer on stock splits Stock splits do nothing to directly increase the value of a business. They simply divide the ownership pie into more parts. A split makes it easier for small retail investors to buy full shares of a company, although many brokers and employee stock plans offer fractional shares. Stock splits also make options contracts more accessible, since those are sold in 100-share increments.
That said, there can be a psychological effect. Seeing a stock go from $20 to $21 a share can feel underwhelming compared with a jump from $2,000 to $2,100 per share, even though both are 5% gains. What's more, a stock split is generally viewed as a tangible vote of confidence from management: Such events generally happen only after the share price has risen significantly, and they indicate that company leadership expects those gains to continue.
But research by The Motley Fool shows that the results for stocks in the periods after they split are mixed, so it's better to pick stocks to buy based on fundamentals instead of looking for splits.
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The makings of a SpaceX stock split Tesla went public in June 2010 at a non-split-adjusted price of $17 per share.In August 2020, Tesla announced its first-ever stock split -- a 5-for-1 stock split, to be exact, that gave four additional shares for each then-held share. It conducted a 3-for-1 split in 2022. That means Tesla's split-adjusted IPO price is just $1.13 per share -- a mind-blowing 33,503% gain for investors who bought at the IPO price and held.
At the time of its first split, Tesla was approaching $2,500 per share, and it was under $900 at the time of its second. But Tesla was a small-cap company at the time of its IPO, whereas SpaceX was the biggest IPO in history and is currently one of seven companies with market caps over $2 trillion.
What's more, SpaceX's IPO price was $135 per share.
In sum, it took Tesla a decade to engage in a stock split after it had gone from a small-cap to a large-cap company. SpaceX might only have to go up a few times over before considering a stock split.
It's worth noting that there's no standard price level for stock splits, but the vast majority of S&P 500 companies trade at under $1,000 per share. However, splits at lower share prices aren't unheard of. Apple was around $500 a share when it engaged in a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. CrowdStrike is performing a 4-for-1 stock split on July 2, and it closed on June 26 at $701.09 per share.
SpaceX was trading at $153.23 per share at the time of this writing; if it increases in value by at least fourfold (which would put its market cap just over $10 trillion), I would not be surprised if it considers a stock split.
On a percentage basis, that would be a far smaller increase than Tesla had before its first split, but it certainly would be an unprecedented amount of market cap creation.
SpaceX needs its biggest bet to pay off SpaceX's potential road to $10 trillion will depend heavily on how successful it is at building and launching millions of AI data center satellites into orbit. The plan is to launch the first test satellites as early as 2027. From there, Elon Musk wants to increase the computing power of SpaceX's AI satellite constellation by an order of magnitude per year, which is 10 times -- meaning going from 1 gigawatt (GW) in 2027 to 10 GW in 2028, to 100 GW in 2029, to 1,000 GW (1 terawatt) by the end of 2030 -- assuming that the Terafab plant SpaceX is constructing in partnership with Tesla and Intel can produce the chips that its plan requires in sufficient quantity.
There are plenty of obstacles standing in SpaceX's way. For starters, these satellites will be much larger, both in mass and surface area, than Starlink's broadband and mobile satellites, so they will be much heavier and cost more to launch. What's more, placing them in the sun-synchronous orbit Musk has proposed would cause light pollution and create all kinds of headaches for astronomers. SpaceX is building a massive factory in Texas called Gigasat to make these satellites, which could encounter production challenges. Those are only some of a long list of technical and logistical hurdles that will need to be cleared.
And finally, if those issues are overcome, SpaceX will need to prove there is a customer base willing to pay top dollar for this orbital computing capacity to justify the costs. Or, put another way, SpaceX will need to demonstrate that there are measurable cost savings to be had from using orbital data centers rather than Earth-based data centers. If they pan out, those benefits would most likely be related to the fact that they will be powered by solar energy and use large radiator panels to expel the heat the servers generate as infrared radiation, rather than relying on water-based heat sinks or liquid cooling systems.
If SpaceX somehow pulls all of this off, it will become the most important AI infrastructure company in the world and help address one of the biggest challenges in AI -- the energy bottleneck. It could provide the jumping-off point -- and more importantly, the cash flow -- for SpaceX to pursue other endeavors in space technology and interplanetary travel.
Under that outcome, with the combined value of SpaceX-owned xAI and X (formerly Twitter), SpaceX would absolutely deserve a market cap north of $10 trillion, be the world's most valuable company, and could reach the point where its stock price warranted a split. If it launches 1 million AI computing satellites in less than five years, it could engage in a stock split a lot sooner in its publicly traded life than Tesla did.
However, SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025, and there's no telling what challenges could throw a wrench in its ambitious plans. Investors may be better off taking a wait-and-see approach to SpaceX, monitoring its progress toward its goals rather than buying the stock based solely on the company's vision.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $420.60, demonstrating a +2.13% change from the preceding day's closing price. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.79%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.26%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 1.52%.
Coming into today, shares of the electric car maker had lost 0.97% in the past month. In that same time, the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector lost 5.32%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.82%.
The upcoming earnings release of Tesla will be of great interest to investors. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.45, up 12.5% from the prior-year quarter. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $24.32 billion, up 8.09% from the year-ago period.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $2 per share and revenue of $101.11 billion, indicating changes of +20.48% and +6.63%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Tesla. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.66% decrease. Tesla is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Tesla is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 206.11. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 20.47, which means Tesla is trading at a premium to the group.
It's also important to note that TSLA currently trades at a PEG ratio of 9.79. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. Automotive - Domestic stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.01 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 94, positioning it in the top 39% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Tesla Stock OwnershipTesla went public on June 29, 2010 with shares priced at $17. Over a decade later, investors who bought in at the time of the IPO have been pleasantly rewarded. Investors who bought in other periods of time have also benefitted and grown their wealth, just like CEO Elon Musk.
Benzinga viewers of "PreMarket Playbook" were asked about their past and current Tesla stock ownership during the Tuesday, June 30 episode.
"Tesla went public 16 years ago on June 29, 2010. Which of the following best describes you?" Benzinga asked.
The results are:
Traded Tesla before, but don’t own: 53% Never owned Tesla stock (outside ETFs/mutual funds): 27% Currently own Tesla stock: 20% The poll results show that 53% of viewers polled have owned Tesla stock in the past, but don’t currently own. Add this with the 20% who said they currently own Tesla stock and the amount of people who have owned Tesla stock at some point would be 73%.
The remaining 27% of viewers said they have never owned Tesla stock outside of owning ETFs or mutual funds that own the electric vehicle stock, which would give them indirect ownership.
"PreMarket Playbook" airs on YouTube Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. ET and is hosted by Ryan Faloona. The poll in this story featured the answers of 214 viewers.
Tesla’s Lasting PopularityWhile it is unknown what percentages other popular stocks like the other Magnificent Seven members would get from Benzinga viewers, the fact that 73% of viewers polled say they have owned Tesla stock at some point is likely one of the higher figures for a public company.
With 20% of viewers still owning Tesla stock, that is also a bullish sign on the future of the company and comes with shares down 5% year-to-date in 2026.
Benzinga regularly publishes its most-searched ticker stories each month. For the month of May, Tesla was the fourth most searched ticker. For 2025, Tesla ranked second.
The stock regularly ranks among the top five most-searched tickers on Benzinga Pro each month. While searches don’t directly translate to ownership, they do indicate the importance of the company and the popularity.
A report from brokerage company Robinhood earlier this year showed that Tesla was the second top stock based on buys and sales for the Jan. 1 through May 1, 2026 period.
Tesla remains one of the most popular stocks on the planet. The recent IPO of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), a space company led by Musk, may have taken some of the luster away from Tesla.
With investors and fans of Musk wanting to bet on his future, they likely own Tesla and SpaceX stock. For others, looking for which stock may perform better, some investors may have sold off their Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Tesla has begun testing a production version of its Cybercab that has two seats, but no steering wheel or pedals, in Austin, Texas. For now, the testing is being done with a safety monitor in the right passenger seat, according to a video posted on X, the social media platform owned by the electric car maker's CEO Elon Musk.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) could overtake SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) in market capitalization by July 2027, according to an analysis by OpenAI’s ChatGPT that considered the latest developments across Elon Musk’s companies.
The projection comes as SpaceX holds a market value of about $2.16 trillion following its historic initial public offering, while Tesla is valued at roughly $1.55 trillion, leaving a gap of about 28.5%.
According to the analysis, Tesla has a higher probability of delivering near-term commercial milestones that could drive faster valuation growth over the next 12 months.
The company continues to expand its autonomous driving ambitions through Full Self-Driving (FSD) updates, including Version 14, while increasing robotaxi operations in select U.S. cities.
Tesla is also preparing for Cybercab production and advancing Optimus, its humanoid robot platform, which is viewed as a potentially significant long-term revenue opportunity.
As a result, Tesla’s valuation is becoming increasingly tied to its artificial intelligence and robotics businesses rather than vehicle sales alone.
Based on these factors, ChatGPT estimates Tesla could reach a market capitalization of between $2.4 trillion and $2.7 trillion by mid-2027, allowing it to surpass SpaceX if execution remains on track.
Under the base-case scenario, Tesla would overtake SpaceX around July 2027 and hold a market value about 6% to 8% higher shortly after the crossover.
The case for SpaceX stock growth While Tesla may have the edge in near-term commercialization, ChatGPT noted that SpaceX continues to benefit from strong investor interest following its public market debut.
The company’s long-term growth strategy remains centered on Starship, Starlink, and artificial intelligence initiatives integrated through xAI.
SpaceX has advanced testing of its Starship V3 vehicle, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines, redesigned propulsion systems, and increased propellant capacity.
The company is also working toward orbital refueling demonstrations, expanding production facilities, and increasing launch capacity across multiple sites.
Meanwhile, Starlink remains SpaceX’s largest revenue driver and is widely viewed as the financial foundation supporting future Mars missions, lunar exploration projects, and broader space infrastructure ambitions.
The company also continues to play a key role in NASA’s Artemis program while pursuing potential uncrewed Mars missions later in 2026.
On the other hand, Tesla still faces regulatory and production risks tied to autonomous driving, Cybercab, and Optimus.
Meanwhile, SpaceX could retain its lead if Starship development progresses faster than expected, Starlink growth accelerates, or investors place greater value on its space infrastructure business.
Tesla (TSLA +0.83%) shares have had a magnificent run since their initial public offering in 2010. But over the past half-decade, they have only risen by 69% (as of June 26).
The S&P 500 index, by comparison, has generated a total return of 85%. Investors might be thrown off by the electric vehicle company's underperformance.
There is chatter about a merger between Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies. Assuming this potentially massive deal doesn't go through, where will Tesla's shares be in five years?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Bringing AI to the physical world In 2025, Tesla's automotive revenue of $69.5 billion accounted for 73% of the company's entire top line. Founder and CEO Elon Musk wants the business to evolve from one-time sales like this. Tesla continues to develop its artificial intelligence capabilities in hopes of creating a major impact on the physical world.
Autonomous driving technology is one area. The Cybercab, which will supply the Robotaxi platform and full self-driving software to customers, is slowly progressing.
With Optimus, robotics is the other focus. Tesla is preparing its Fremont factory to eventually produce 1 million robots per year. In 2024, Musk said that he believed Optimus would one day lift the company's total market capitalization to $25 trillion.
It's impossible to know the exact timeline for these two strategic priorities. In five years, Tesla's sales and profit mix could look fundamentally different from today. If autonomous driving and robotics take longer than planned, then the company likely won't change much.
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Expectations will be hard to beat Any objective observer of Tesla would come away impressed by what the business is trying to do. However, the ambitions of all this technological innovation must eventually result in a financial windfall. This is the company's biggest question.
The market is extremely bullish, which is not a shock given the benefit of the doubt that Elon Musk receives from supporters. Tesla shares trade at an eye-watering price-to-earnings ratio of 347. This is a stock priced for perfection.
Assume that Tesla's valuation is the same in June 2031, and earnings per share would need to expand 100% for the stock to double.
This profit forecast, while encouraging, most likely wouldn't satisfy the investment community. The market has extremely high hopes. And its patience will eventually be put to the test.
I think the only way Tesla's stock becomes a big winner over the next five years is if the company rapidly commercializes its Robotaxi service worldwide, while simultaneously scaling Optimus manufacturing and selling them in commercial settings. These trends need to develop to the point where they start to have a sizable impact on Tesla's financial performance.
The stock's extreme valuation makes me doubtful that even notable fundamental improvements will make Tesla a winning portfolio addition over the coming five years.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) is $416.37, modestly above where the stock trades today. With shares at $411.84, the implied move is roughly 1.1% over the next 12 months. That puts Tesla in hold territory by our model, with a confidence level of 90%. The setup is measured: after a year that included a 27.26% one-year gain, near-term reward looks balanced against risk.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $411.84 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $416.37 Upside 1.1% Recommendation HOLD Confidence Level 90% A Choppy First Half Sets the Stage Tesla is down 8.42% year to date and 5.5% over the past month, though shares popped 8.46% on June 29 alone. The stock sits roughly 16% below its 52-week high of $498.83 and well above the $288.77 low.
Q1 2026 was a real turn: revenue of $22.39B grew 15.8% YoY, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.41 versus a $0.36 estimate, and auto gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Services revenue grew 42% and free cash flow more than doubled to $1.44B. That reset the narrative after a soft FY2025, when revenue fell 2.93% and net income dropped 46.79%.
The Case for $480+ Bulls have a real shot to break the model. Our internal bull-case scenario points to $481.13 over 12 months, a 16.83% return.
The catalysts are concrete: Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 all targeting 2026 volume production; Optimus Gen 3 unveiling in Q1 with stated capacity of 1M robots per year at Fremont and 10M at the Texas Gigafactory; FSD v14.3 deployed in April; and Robotaxi expansion to Dallas and Houston with unsupervised rides.
The $2B SpaceX equity tie-up and the chip-fab partnership at Gigafactory Texas add a strategic kicker. The Street’s average target sits at $421.16, with 23 Buy ratings.
The Risks Worth Watching The bear scenario takes Tesla to $361.77, a 12.16% drawdown. Valuation is the headline risk at 407x earnings against a 4.59% operating margin. FY2025 vehicle deliveries fell 9%, Q4 deliveries dropped 16%, and inventory days rose to 27 from 22.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Operating expenses jumped 37-50% YoY on AI R&D and the CEO award. Bulls would argue that op-ex surge reflects investment in Optimus, Dojo 3, and AI5 that should pay off over multiple years, and that the Q1 26 margin recovery suggests the auto cycle has turned.
Still, 7 Sell ratings exist, insider activity skews to net selling, and prediction-market sentiment turned down 18.58 points in seven days.
Hold for Now The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $416.37 implies hold at 90% confidence. The factor tipping the scale is the gap between fundamentals and price: Q1 momentum is real, but valuation already prices in flawless execution on robotaxi, Optimus, and energy.
The bull case strengthens if FSD wins regulatory clearance in China or the EU at scale and Q2 deliveries clear 475,000 units. The thesis weakens if auto margins compress again or Optimus slips past Q4 2026.
Tesla Price Prediction 2026-2030 Extending our model with current growth trajectories and reasonable multiple compression on the AI/robotaxi optionality, here is where the 24/7 Wall St. price target points over five years.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $416 2027 $432 2028 $449 2029 $465 2030 $482 These projections assume Tesla keeps executing on Cybercab, Optimus, and energy storage. A material acceleration in robotaxi monetization could push the 2030 path toward the $629.88 bull case, while a stalled FSD rollout could drag toward the $374.15 bear path.
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Elon Musk recently said he thinks Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%), or SpaceX, could be generating $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. That's an astounding projection given that the business generated roughly $18.7 billion in sales last year. For some additional context, the business grew revenue 33% annually to reach last year's revenue level.
If SpaceX were to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, the company would need to grow its revenue roughly 5,248% over 2025's figure to hit that target. In other words, the company would need to grow its revenue at an average annual rate of 121.6% each year to hit that target -- an enormous rate of growth to deliver on average over a five-year period. On the other hand, the target could start to look far more reachable if it factors in an anticipated merger between SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA +8.49%).
Image source: Getty Images.
Is a Tesla merger Musk's path to getting SpaceX to $1 trillion in revenue? Last year, Tesla posted roughly $94.83 billion in annual revenue. Notably, the company's sales actually declined roughly 3% year over year in the period -- marking the first-ever annual revenue decline in the business's history.
If you combined Tesla's and SpaceX's revenue for 2025, you'd reach roughly $103.5 billion in annual sales. Based on that figure, the combined business would need to grow revenue at a 57.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over a five-year period.
That CAGR actually looks far more achievable because SpaceX grew revenue 33% last year, and it seems like there's a good chance that sales growth will actually accelerate this year, thanks to new artificial intelligence (AI) processing deals with Alphabet and other customers, along with continued growth for the company's rocket-launching and Starlink services.
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With Tesla revenue currently declining and accounting for the vast majority of the two companies' combined revenue, the electric vehicle (EV) business could actually be a substantial drag on CAGR if the two companies were combined. Overall demand in the EV market has cooled, and Tesla in particular has seen significant declines in vehicle sales.
On the other hand, it's not unreasonable to expect Tesla to start recording real revenue from its robotaxi and humanoid robotics businesses within the next five years, offsetting potential continued declines in automotive revenue.
With the monumental growth needed to get SpaceX to $1 trillion in sales within the next five years in mind, it's possible that Elon Musk is hinting that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is on the horizon. Of course, it's possible that he really believes SpaceX alone will reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. It's also possible that the famously ambitious tech leader is throwing out highly optimistic projections to help generate excitement among investors and shore up support for the company's highly growth-dependent valuation.
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Tesla (TSLA +8.49%) has faced several challenges this year. Between macroeconomic issues that have affected broader equities -- the electric vehicle (EV) maker hasn't escaped this -- runaway capex spending that isn't yet paying off, and mixed financial results, the stock is down 6% to date, while the S&P 500 has climbed 8%. However, there are some reasons to think Tesla's shares could jump after July 2 and perform well through the rest of the year, although, of course, we can't be absolutely certain. Still, let's consider some reasons to be bullish on Tesla's short-term outlook.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Can deliveries surprise the market? Tesla's financial results haven't been that strong partly because of a slowdown in the EV market. In the first quarter, EV sales in the U.S. dropped by 27% year over year. But what if Tesla's second-quarter EV deliveries and sales surprise Wall Street? Some people think that's what may happen. Mark Delaney, an analyst at Goldman Sachs (GS +0.06%), recently argued that Tesla's Q2 deliveries may exceed expectations, based on sales data from several regions including China and Europe. The analyst raised his second-quarter Tesla delivery projection to 420,000, up from 405,000.
Note that this would represent a solid 9% increase from its Q2 2025 deliveries. True, the company also saw deliveries increase year over year in the first quarter. They rose 6% compared to the year-ago period. However, during the first period, Tesla deliveries came in below expectations. Delaney's forecast of 420,000 is well ahead of the consensus estimate of between about 396,466 and 406,024, depending on the source. Provided Tesla can exceed expectations when it releases its second quarter delivery numbers, probably around July 2, the company's shares might jump.
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Other important updates on the horizon? Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, said that the company would reveal Optimus 3, the next generation of its humanoid robot, in late July or early August. This might provide yet another boost to the company's share price. There could be significant demand for humanoid robots -- especially from businesses -- provided they can perform certain tasks well and be manufactured cost-effectively at scale. Optimus 3's reveal might tell us at least one of those things. And if it is nearly as impressive as Musk claimed it would be, that could jolt the company's stock. Several other developments may help Tesla maintain strong momentum through the end of the year, including its work on self-driving vehicle capabilities. Tesla's robotaxi ambitions are a key part of the company's long-term vision. That's why the market may reward meaningful progress on that front.
Is Tesla stock a buy? Investors should avoid focusing on short-term gains. So, even if Tesla's stock performs well over the next six months, the more important question is whether the company is a good long-term investment. There certainly are good reasons to think so. The company is still a leader in the EV space and may establish itself as a top player in the humanoid robot market in the future, while scaling its potentially lucrative robotaxi business. However, there are significant risks as well. One of the biggest may come from regulators. Tesla has already encountered some challenges in this department. The federal EV tax credit expired in the U.S. last year, which may lead to lower demand in the medium term.
There are other potential regulatory roadblocks the company might encounter, including challenges in obtaining approval for its self-driving software. And so far, we are only considering Tesla's EV business. It will likely face similar problems with its humanoid robot project, especially if some lawmakers think it could harm the labor market. Meanwhile, Tesla is facing increasing competition from companies like Rivian (RIVN +7.55%), which recently launched the R2, a competitor to the Model Y. And amid all that, Tesla's valuation remains eye-popping. The company is trading at 196x forward earnings. The market is expecting a lot from Tesla, and the company's shares might move sideways (or worse) over the next few years if it fails to make significant progress with various endeavors. So, is the stock worth investing in right now?
For those comfortable with significant volatility and who intend to hold Tesla's shares for a while, it may be worth initiating a small position.
SummaryCompaniesChina leads substitution push, with government support and EV makersAnalysts say substitution is gradual, limited by efficiency and emissionsSee Factbox on substitution and companies involved read more LONDON/SHANGHAI/BEIJING/DETROIT, June 30 (Reuters) - Ferrari and BMW are rolling out new models featuring lightweight, cost-effective aluminium wiring, accelerating a shift away from copper, the dominant material in electric wiring since the invention of the electric battery two centuries ago.
The decisions follow similar moves by Tesla and Chinese EV makers and reflect a broader industry trend forecast to affect around 2% of global copper demand this year, according to JPMorgan.
Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.
Even more copper could be switched to aluminium in the coming years because of a structural rise in copper prices, driven by shortages of the metal and with increased demand from the green-energy sector and data centres.
Companies across several sectors are migrating to aluminium because of far lower prices and comparable performance, according to Reuters interviews with 18 carmakers, cable and air conditioning companies, metals producers and consultants. Ferrari and BMW said they chose aluminium in part because of its lighter weight.
Substitution of aluminium for copper has come in waves over two decades, but record copper prices in late January, peaking close to $15,000 per metric ton, added weight to the case for switching to aluminium. Forecasts for global supply fall short of those for demand for more than the next decade.
LIGHTER AND FASTERFerrari (RACE.MI), opens new tab, which already uses aluminium for its bodies, engines and chassis, told Reuters it started using the lightweight metal for power cables on its 296 hybrid sports car last year. Ferrari has since introduced aluminium wiring into other models, including the Luce, its first ever EV launched last month.
The move saves up to 20% of the total wiring weight, said Ferrari communications executive Dario Esposito.
"We are not choosing aluminium because it's cheaper, we choose the material that has better performance," he said.
But the metal is, in fact, much cheaper — currently about $3,100 a ton, or about a quarter the price of copper.
Germany's BMW (BMWG.DE), opens new tab said it first used aluminium conductors in 2011 in its subcompact 1 series and progressively expanded substitution in hybrids and EVs. Currently, it uses a large number of aluminium cables in both high and low-voltage systems in its latest eDrive EV technology, launched last year.
The world’s fourth-biggest automaker, Stellantis <STLAM.MI, opens new tab>, also recently started swapping copper wiring for aluminium, according to an industry source familiar with the matter. Stellantis declined to comment.
PRICE VERSUS PERFORMANCEChinese EV parts supplier JONVER has seen sales of aluminium wiring products jump this year to about 30% of its sales from about 20% in 2023, said sales director Feng Lu.
Norwegian aluminium producer Hydro (NHY.OL), opens new tab said sales of aluminium heating-and-air tubing as a copper substitute have steadily grown in recent years. Hydro CFO Trond Olaf Christophersen said the company expects to gain market share as aluminium rapidly replaces copper in the sector in future years.
Xavier Mathieu at France-based Nexans (NEXS.PA), opens new tab, the world's second-biggest cable manufacturer, said manufacturers will still buy copper at higher prices because it performs better in certain applications — but they start buying aluminium when copper prices reach about 3.5 times higher.
Copper prices currently stand at more than 4.2 times the price of aluminium.
Several issues complicate firms' decisions to swap, including U.S. tariffs and the huge amount of energy needed to produce aluminium , which means more greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, aluminium is cheap but less efficient: It requires more aluminium to conduct the same amount of electricity.
Still, JPMorgan outlined a scenario in which about 6% of annual demand for copper might be replaced by aluminium by 2030, compared to 2% this year.
CHINA EV MAKERS TAKE THE LEADThe government in the world's biggest metals consumer, China, encouraged companies to make the switch to aluminium in a March 2025 policy paper seen by Reuters, and many have heeded the call.
Analysts at consultancy Zhuochuang forecast that about 25% to 30% of components currently made from copper, by metal volume, could be switched to aluminium in the power, automotive and home-appliance sectors by 2030.
Chinese EV makers that have switched to aluminium wiring include AVATR, XPeng (9868.HK), opens new tab and Xiaomi (1810.HK), opens new tab, said Terry Woychowski, president at engineering consultancy Caresoft Global, which takes apart vehicles and examines their components.
The three Chinese EV makers and Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.
Lightweight aluminium is especially attractive to EV makers because cutting weight allows for longer driving ranges. And saving money is crucial for EV firms in China, where a price war has left margins razor-thin. And aluminium has ample room to gain ground in autos, where about 85% of electrical wiring busbars, which connect an EV's battery to its systems, are still copper, according to Hydro.
The Chinese auto industry has benchmarked Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, a pioneer in using aluminium for wiring when it introduced its Model Y in 2019, and more recently in its Cybertruck, Woychowski added.
Reporting by Eric Onstad in London, Amy Lv in Shanghai, Ju-min Park in Beijing, Kalea Hall in Detroit; Editing by Veronica Brown, Claudia Parsons
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Ju-min Park is a senior correspondent for Reuters based in Beijing, covering the automobile industry. She began her career at Reuters since 2010 and previously reported on the Korean peninsula and Japan.
Kalea Hall reports on the automotive industry, focusing on the Detroit Three automakers, from Detroit. Kalea was previously an automotive reporter at The Detroit News daily newspaper where she covered the auto industry and General Motors for more than five years. She’s been a professional reporter since 2013, when she started at The Vindicator, a daily newspaper in Youngstown, Ohio and her hometown paper. Growing up in an auto plant town inspired Kalea to deeply understand the industry, and helped her report award-winning stories for The Vindicator. At The Detroit News, she worked collaboratively with a team to break news and write comprehensive pieces. Kalea has a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Point Park University in Pittsburgh and a master’s degree in journalism from Michigan State University.
