Despite a 9% gain in the benchmark S&P 500 so far in 2026, Tesla (TSLA +6.70%) stock has moved in the opposite direction, posting a 12% loss (as of market close on Thursday, July 2). The company is coming off two straight years of declining electric vehicle (EV) sales, so investors are understandably cautious.
But on July 2, Tesla reported its EV deliveries for the second quarter of 2026 (ended June 30), blowing away Wall Street's expectations. They also grew for the second consecutive quarter, which suggests this critical part of Tesla's business might finally be recovering.
That said, Tesla stock is trading at a sky-high valuation, which makes it a very tough investment despite recent improvements in its EV sales. Here's why it probably isn't a good buy right now.
Image source: Tesla.
Tesla's EV sales appear to be recovering Tesla delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, which was a 1% decline from the previous year. Sales fell at an even faster pace of 9% in 2025, with deliveries coming in at just 1.63 million. EV sales still account for over 70% of Tesla's revenue, so the declines put a real dent in the company's earnings, which plummeted by 47% last year alone.
Fortunately, the electric vehicle business seems to be recovering. Tesla delivered 358,023 cars during the first quarter of 2026, which was up 6% from the year-ago period. And on July 2, the company announced 480,126 deliveries for the second quarter, which was up 25%. It also topped Wall Street's average forecast of around 406,000 deliveries by a very wide margin.
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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sparked a surge in gas prices since February, likely benefiting Tesla's sales during the second quarter as more consumers made the switch to an EV. However, gas prices have started to decline thanks to an ongoing ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, so it's unclear whether this tailwind will extend into the rest of 2026.
The increasingly competitive landscape has been Tesla's biggest challenge over the last couple of years, as a raft of low-cost EV brands has flooded important markets like China and Europe. The company has responded by launching cheaper versions of its flagship Model 3 and Model Y EVs, but it still can't compete with China-based BYD, which sells its entry-level Dolphin Surf for under $30,000 in Europe.
Tesla will pivot away from the passenger EV business over the long term by focusing on its Cybercab autonomous robotaxi and its Optimus humanoid robot, but these products are still at least a year away from mass commercialization. In the meantime, shareholders might have to endure volatile financial results from the EV business.
Tesla is a tough investment because of its valuation Based on Tesla's trailing 12-month earnings of $1.09 per share, its stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 359. That makes it over 10 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 index, which has a P/E ratio of 35.2, so Tesla looks extremely overvalued compared to a basket of its big-tech peers.
Data by YCharts.
Tesla will report its official financial results for the second quarter on Wednesday, July 22, and given the sharp uptick in EV sales, its revenue and earnings are likely to grow nicely. Therefore, its stock might be slightly cheaper than it currently appears at face value once those latest earnings are factored in, but it will almost certainly still be more expensive than the Nasdaq-100 by several orders of magnitude.
Tesla's sky-high valuation is probably the main reason why its stock is down 12% this year, despite the gains in the broader market. Unfortunately, the door is open to an even steeper correction if the momentum in the company's EV business slows over the next couple of quarters -- and that is a real risk with gas prices coming down.
In my opinion, the only way investors could yield a positive return in Tesla stock from its current price is by adopting a very long-term outlook of at least five years. That will give the company time to bring new products like Optimus and the Cybercab to market, which could fuel its next phase of growth.
“Today, much of the robotics industry is still built around a single transaction: a machine is built, sold, and delivered,” Wang told Benzinga. “We believe the larger opportunity begins after delivery.”
Beyond Hardware SalesWang believes the robotics industry is approaching a business-model shift similar to what software experienced with subscriptions and cloud computing.
Instead of treating robots as one-time hardware purchases, he envisions them as long-lived assets that continue creating economic value throughout their operating lives. He calls the concept the “Robot Second Life Cycle,” where value extends beyond the initial sale through greater utilization, longer operating lives and the operational data robots generate while performing real-world tasks.
That distinction could eventually reshape how investors evaluate robotics companies. Rather than focusing solely on unit sales, the market may increasingly reward businesses that can generate recurring revenue from robots long after they’re deployed.
The Rise of Robot RentalsThat thinking also underpins Wang’s vision for Robotics-as-a-Service.
“A lot of businesses don’t necessarily want to own robots outright,” he said. “What they really want is access to robotic capabilities when those capabilities can create clear, measurable value.”
Instead of committing significant upfront capital, companies could rent robots for warehouse operations, inspections, security, deliveries or other specialized tasks, while robot owners generate income from equipment that might otherwise sit idle.
Wang sees parallels with another technology revolution.
“If cloud computing turned expensive servers into something you can access on demand, we think Robotics-as-a-Service can do something similar for robotic capabilities,” he said.
The Next Robotics TradeFor now, investors remain focused on which company will build the most capable humanoid robot. Tesla, Figure AI and other developers continue competing to improve mobility, intelligence and manufacturing scale.
But Wang argues the industry’s economics could eventually matter just as much as its engineering.
If robots become recurring revenue-generating assets rather than one-time hardware sales, the companies creating the most long-term value may not simply be those shipping the most machines—they could be the ones keeping those machines working, earning and generating data for years after deployment.
For investors, that suggests the next chapter of the robotics story may begin not when a robot is sold, but when it starts working.
Image courtesy company PR
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Americké akciové indexy vykázaly v úvodní seanci po prodlouženém víkendu kladnou bilanci v čele s technologickým Nasdaqem (+1,12 %). Širší index S&P500 přidal 0,72 % a Dow Jones 0,29 %. Mírný zisk registrovaly také dluhopisy vyjma nejdelších maturit. Výnos 10letého vládního bondu se posunul na 4,47 % z pátečních 4,48 %. V červeném uzavřely drahé kovy. Zlato odepsalo 0,3 % na 4162 USD/oz, stříbro končilo slabší o 0,64 % na 62 USD/oz. V energetickém sektoru se dařilo zemnímu plynu, který zpevnil téměř o 1,7 % na 3,25 USD/mmbtu. Ropa končila beze změny na 68,7 USD/barel.
Závěrečné hodnoty:
Index Dow Jones 0,29 % na 53055,91 b.
Index Nasdaq Composite 1,12 % na 26121,16 b.
Index S&P 500 +0,72 % na 7537,43 b.
Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Sektor komunikací +1,6 % Zdravotní péče -1,2 % Informační technologie +1,3 % Utility -1,1 % Nezbytná spotřeba +1 % Reality -0,9 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Arista Networks (ANET) +8,3 % O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) -6,7 % Western Digital (WDC) +7,1 % AutoZone (AZO) -6,4 % Tesla (TSLA) +6,7 % Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) -5,2 % Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +6,6 % Constellation Brands (STZ) -4,9 % NetApp (NTAP) +6,1 % Tractor Supply (TSCO) -4,8 % Zdroj: Reuters
Tesla (TSLA) shares climbed about 1.5% in early Monday trading after the electric vehicle maker broadened its autonomous ride-hailing footprint with a Robotaxi
An old-economy sector fund is quietly beating the market darlings this year, and it holds zero shares of the electric-vehicle giant everyone loves to argue about. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA:ITA) has climbed 13.74% year to date and 32.48% over the trailing year, all while owning none of the Magnificent Seven, including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction). Over the same year-to-date stretch, Tesla shares have fallen 12.51%.
What ITA Actually Owns ITA is BlackRock’s iShares fund tracking large- and small-cap U.S. companies in the aerospace and defense industry. As of March 31, 2026, the fund managed $13.49 billion in net assets spread across 47 holdings. The portfolio is heavily concentrated at the top: the ten largest positions represent roughly 64% of assets.
The top three names alone drive the fund. GE Aerospace sits at 19.03%, RTX at 16.55%, and Boeing at 8.91%. Behind them: General Dynamics at 4.77%, L3Harris at 4.66%, Lockheed Martin at 4.58%, Northrop Grumman at 4.58%, TransDigm at 4.53%, and Howmet at 4.50%.
Why the Fund Is Running Defense primes have benefited from a step-change in federal budget authority. The FY 2027 President’s Budget request for the Department of the Air Force alone reaches $391.1 billion, and procurement lines for major weapons systems are expanding, with the F-35 program alone jumping to a $21.4 billion request for FY 2027. Commercial aerospace has added its own tailwind through Boeing’s production ramp and record engine-services demand at GE Aerospace and RTX.
Growth-oriented names inside the fund have amplified the move. Axon Enterprise sits at 2.83%, Rocket Lab at 2.55%, and Kratos Defense at 1.10%. Goldman Sachs flagged economic security as a prominent 2026 theme, and this fund is a direct expression of it.
The Tesla Question Tesla is not in the fund’s 47 holdings as of the most recent NPORT filing. The reason is methodology, not opinion. ITA tracks a sector-focused index limited to aerospace and defense classifications. Tesla, at a $1.48 trillion market cap, is categorized under consumer discretionary and automotive. Its rockets are at SpaceX, a separate private company. The index simply has no lane for it.
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That exclusion has helped this year. Tesla trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 421, and the stock is down 12.51% year to date despite a 14.14% Q1 earnings beat on $22.39 billion in revenue. Broad tech-adjacent volatility that has dragged Magnificent Seven names lower has bypassed ITA entirely.
What the Absence Means for Risk Funds that hold Tesla, including most total-market and consumer discretionary ETFs, have carried the drag from its year-to-date decline. ITA has skipped that hit but taken on a different concentration risk: three companies (GE Aerospace, RTX, Boeing) account for roughly 44.5% of the portfolio. A production stumble at Boeing or a Pentagon continuing-resolution fight could reverse the trend quickly.
The fund also skews cyclical. Over five years, ITA has returned 130.85%, and over ten years, 330.57%. Those numbers include long stretches when defense budgets were less generous and aerospace was grounded during the pandemic.
The Takeaway For retirement-focused investors weighing a sector allocation, ITA offers direct exposure to a policy-driven earnings cycle without wagering on high-multiple consumer tech. That is the trade-off: no Tesla upside if the stock rebounds, but no Tesla drawdown either. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and this article is not investment advice. Anyone considering a position should weigh the fund’s concentration in a handful of prime contractors against the defense-spending backdrop that has powered its 6.14% trailing-month and double-digit year-to-date gains.
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Tesla (TSLA +6.04%) has expanded its robotaxi rollout, and a company executive has teased that another major announcement is coming tomorrow. That news helped shares pop today. As of 2:27 p.m. ET, Tesla stock was higher by 6% to start the week.
The company posted on its social media account that it has officially launched its driverless robotaxi service in Miami, Florida. That is giving investors a clue about what a Tesla vice president was talking about last week when he teased that a big announcement is coming tomorrow.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Austin gigafactory news Tesla said it has started its robotaxi service in Miami on July 3. That makes Florida the third state beyond Texas and California, but the rollout has been measured. In the post announcing the Miami launch, the company's social media account included a map showing a relatively small geofenced area where the service will be available.
More importantly for investors, though, is what it could mean for the announcement that is coming tomorrow. Tesla vice president of vehicle engineering, Lars Moravy, appeared on a podcast last week and stated that on July 7, "there will be some cool news about things happening around Giga Texas as part of the scaling effort."
Investors may be jumping into the stock today, believing that the Texas plant will be scaling its manufacturing capacity to prepare for a massive rollout of Tesla's Cybercab for its future unsupervised robotaxi fleet.
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An artificial intelligence (AI) powered robotaxi fleet, along with future humanoid robots, is mainly what has Tesla's valuation so high. Another step toward building out the driverless taxi fleet has investors getting excited.
Howard Smith has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Americké akciové indexy se po prodlouženém víkendu, kdy ještě doznívají sváteční konfety, pohybují v kladném teritoriu v čele s technologickým Nasdaqem, který přidává bezmála 1,3 %, širší index S&P500 pak posiluje o 0,7 %. Kosmetický zisk 0,05 % si připisuje též tradiční index Dow Jones.
K růstu se po korekci v minulém týdnu vrátily polovodiče. Referenční Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index zpevňuje téměř o 4 % a sektor informačních technologií jednoznačně dominuje dnešnímu odvětvovému růstu v rámci S&P500 se ziskem 2 %. Jim sekundují komunikační služby (+0,9 %). Naopak sektor zbytných statků, zdravotnictví a utilit vykazuje více než 1% ztrátu.
Po sérii nových historických maxim z prvního pololetí přijde již brzy další test robustnosti trhu v podobě výsledkové sezony. Zejména volatilní polovodičový sektor v poslední době ukazuje, že prostor pro zklamání je omezený. Reportovací období pomyslně odstartují příští úterý přední americké banky.
Smíšeným vývojem dnes prochází dluhopisy. Zatímco kratší maturity lehce zpevňují, delší splatnosti naopak mírně ztrácí. Výnos 10letého vládního bondu se drží těsně nad hladinou 4,48 %. Drahé kovy vykazují ztráty. Zlato odepisuje 0,6 % na 4152 USD/oz, stříbro oslabuje o 1 % na 61,8 USD/oz.
V energetickém sektoru se nedaří ropě, která se obchoduje slabší o 0,6 % na 68,3 USD/barel, zemní plyn naopak přidává 0,9 % na 3,23 USD/mmbtu.
Na korporátní úrovni S&P500 konstituentů si nejlepší výsledek připisují akcie výrobce procesorů a AI akcelerátorů, spol. AMD (AMD +7,9 %) po zvýšeném cíli od Goldman Sachs na 640 z předchozích 450 USD při trvajícím poptávkovém momentu v oblasti AI. Nejhorší výsledek pak registruje prodejce náhradních autodílů, spol. O’Reilly (ORLY -7,2 %) po zprávách o akvizičním zájmu převzít konkurenta NAPA Auto Parts, divize spol. Genuine Parts (GPC), při hotovostní nabídce za více než 10 mld. USD. Nedaří se ani dalšímu z prodejců auto komponent, spol. Autozone (AZO -6,1 %).
Z dalších zajímavých korporátních zpráv pak doplňme oznámení Microsoftu (MSFT -1,2 %) o propuštění 4800 zaměstnanců (2,1 % pracovníků). V polovodičovém segmentu potěšil investory Broadcom (AVGO +4,2 %) po prodloužení obchodní spolupráce s Applem (AAPL) do roku 2031.
Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Informační technologie +1,9 % Zbytná spotřeba -1,5 % Sektor komunikací +1 % Zdravotní péče -1,3 % Nezbytná spotřeba +0,8 % Utility -1,2 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +7,9 % O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) -7,2 % Arista Networks (ANET) +7,7 % AutoZone (AZO) -6,1 % VERTIV HLD A O (VRT) +6,7 % Constellation Brands (STZ) -5,7 % Tesla (TSLA) +6,3 % Tractor Supply (TSCO) -4,9 % QUALCOMM (QCOM) +6,3 % BUILDR FIRST O (BLDR) -4,4 % Zdroj: Reuters
Tesla stock TSLA rose on Monday, recovering some of last week's sharp losses after investors sold the stock despite a stronger-than-expected second-quarter delivery report.
The rebound came as the electric-vehicle maker expanded its robotaxi service to Miami, adding another city to its autonomous ride-hailing network.
Shares of Tesla climbed about 3% to $405.11 in early trading.
The move was also supported by broader market optimism, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbing around 1%.
The stock gained after Tesla announced that its robotaxi service became available in Miami from July 3, extending the company's autonomous ride-hailing footprint beyond Texas.
The expansion makes Florida the third state where Tesla's robotaxi operations are available.
The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin about a year ago and has since expanded to additional Texas cities. Tesla also operates a rideshare service in San Francisco.
The rollout forms part of Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's broader strategy to position artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics as Tesla's next major growth engines.
Investors have closely watched the pace of Tesla's robotaxi expansion, although the rollout has remained gradual as the company prioritizes safety.
Tesla has said it does not expect robotaxis to become a meaningful contributor to revenue and earnings until at least 2027.
Sentiment has also improved following Tesla's second-quarter delivery report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations.
Tesla reported 480,126 global vehicle deliveries during the quarter, representing a 25% increase from a year earlier.
The company also reported that energy deployments rose 41%, extending the momentum of a business that has grown rapidly even as vehicle demand has fluctuated.
The second-quarter performance followed a 6.3% year-over-year increase in deliveries during the first quarter.
Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said in a post on X that he expects Tesla shares to recover further as analysts revise their earnings forecasts.
"I expect TSLA stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY'26 earnings ests," Black said, adding that higher earnings projections "could boost TSLA price targets."
Black nevertheless argued that Tesla's valuation remains demanding.
He said the stock trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings multiple of more than 200 times despite expected long-term earnings-per-share growth of roughly 35% between 2027 and 2032.
According to Black, that "continues to suggest TSLA is fully priced."
He also suggested that higher gasoline prices during the quarter may have contributed more to stronger vehicle demand than growing enthusiasm around autonomous driving.
Analysts maintain constructive outlookMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said Tesla's second-quarter deliveries exceeded sell-side consensus estimates by 18% and represented the company's strongest vehicle growth since the third quarter of 2023.
The firm maintained its Equal Weight rating and a $415 price target.
Separately, Baird reiterated its Outperform rating and $522 price target after Tesla's second-quarter results surpassed both the firm's own forecasts and broader consensus expectations.
Baird also highlighted Tesla's energy storage business, noting that deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours during the quarter, up approximately 41% year over year.
While acknowledging that energy deployments can be uneven from quarter to quarter, the firm described the results as a positive development and said its constructive outlook on Tesla remains unchanged.
Tesla is scheduled to report its full second-quarter financial results after the market closes on July 22.
Tesla, Inc. has shown strong operational improvements, with Q1 2026 revenue up 15.8% and margins expanding across key metrics. TSLA's vehicle deliveries and market share have rebounded, especially in Europe, despite prior setbacks from CEO controversies. Valuation remains extreme; even with optimistic growth and higher-margin businesses, TSLA trades at a 2030 P/E of 114.5 under favorable scenarios.
Key Takeaways Tesla expanded robotaxi services to Miami, FL, the third U.S. state after Texas and California.Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami now use fully autonomous Model Y Robotaxis with no safety monitors.Musk sees wider unsupervised autonomy in late 2026, but Tesla's past delays keep the certainty in question. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is moving steadily toward CEO Elon Musk's vision of turning the company into an artificial intelligence and autonomous mobility leader, with its robotaxi business being at the center of that strategy. The latest milestone came with the launch of robotaxi services in Miami, FL. Florida is the third U.S. state where Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing platform is operating after Texas and California.
The Florida expansion is significant. Miami gives Tesla access to one of the country's busiest transportation and tourism markets. The broader South Florida region, including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Boynton Beach, attracts millions of visitors each year, allowing Tesla to introduce its robotaxi service to a much larger pool of potential riders.
TSLA Robotaxi Footprint ExpansionTesla's robotaxi journey began on June 22, 2025, when it launched limited commercial operations in Austin, TX. A month later, the company entered California by rolling out services across the San Francisco Bay Area, including San Francisco, San Jose and Berkeley. While the California service still relies on human safety monitors, it marked Tesla's first expansion beyond Texas.
By November 2025, Tesla had transitioned Austin to full commercial operations, strengthening its presence in its first launch market. The expansion accelerated in 2026 as Dallas and Houston joined the network in April, extending Robotaxi coverage across Texas. The latest addition of Miami now gives Tesla operations in three states, with active markets including Austin, Dallas, Houston, the San Francisco Bay Area and Miami.
Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami feature fully autonomous Model Y Robotaxis with no driver or safety monitor inside the vehicle. Meanwhile, the Bay Area continues to use safety monitors during rides.
Is Tesla on Track for Musk's 2026 Goal?On Tesla's last earnings call, Musk said he expects fully autonomous vehicles that require no human safety monitors to become much more common across the United States during the second half of 2026.
The recent expansion in Miami marks measurable progress toward that target. Each successful launch provides additional real-world driving data, helping Tesla refine its autonomous driving software while demonstrating growing confidence in the technology.
Still, the race is becoming increasingly competitive. Rivals are rapidly expanding their own autonomous ride-hailing networks, with Alphabet's (GOOGL - Free Report) Waymo and Amazon's (AMZN - Free Report) -owned Zoox both investing heavily to secure a larger share of the emerging market. Waymo remains the clear industry leader, providing roughly 500,000 paid rides each week and operating commercially across 10 U.S. cities. The company is also preparing to expand internationally, with London and Tokyo being its first target markets. Meanwhile, Zoox is accelerating its own rollout, adding Dallas and Phoenix to its robotaxi testing program as it works toward commercial deployment.
For Tesla, the latest expansion shows the Robotaxi business is gaining traction. The company is widening its network while increasing the number of markets where vehicles operate without human supervision, representing meaningful progress toward Musk's long-term vision.
However, Tesla has repeatedly missed self-driving timelines in the past, making it too early to conclude that its broader goal of widespread unsupervised Robotaxis by the second half of 2026 is firmly within reach. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the company can maintain its expansion pace while satisfying regulators and proving the technology can safely scale.
Tesla’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesTesla has underperformed the industry year to date.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Tesla appears significantly overvalued.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla’s EPS has been revised over the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TSLA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The EV landscape in the United States may be on the verge of a regime change.
Tesla sales and production numbers, reported Thursday, July 2nd, were very strong. The company reported producing 451,758 vehicles and delivering 480,126 vehicles - 18% higher than the consensus estimate of 406,600 deliveries.
Despite this, the stock did not perform particularly well. $1.5 trillion is a demanding valuation, approximately 15x trailing 12-month sales.
Meanwhile, much smaller EV competitor Rivian recently launched a mid-market SUV, the R2, targeting the most competitive segment currently led by the Tesla Model Y. How much smaller is Rivian? Tesla's market capitalization is, as I write this, $1.48 trillion. Rivian's market capitalization is $23.5 billion. Tesla sold nearly 1.64 million cars in 2025. Rivian sold just 42,247.
Tesla, YTD
But here's the thing: 96.9% of the cars Tesla sold last year were Model 3/Y. The Model S, X, and Cybertruck combined made up just 3.1%. Why does this matter? Because until now Rivian only competed with those expensive vehicles with their $100k+ R1S (roughly comparable to the Model X in price) and the R1T, which, in turn, as a pickup, comes closest in terms of target market to the divisively styled Cybertruck. Until now, Rivian only offered two very large and very expensive models. Now they have a vehicle aimed squarely at the largest market segment, mid-market SUVs, which, in EVs, has been dominated by the Tesla Model Y.
Holly IndexMy own grassroots consumer behavior analysis is summarized in what I call the "Holly Index." For years, my wife Holly's purchasing choices have served as a leading indicator for consumer discretionary spending trends. For example, for a long time, Lululemon, Starbucks, Costco, Apple, Nike and Tesla ranked highly, but several of these companies fell off the "Holly Index." By Christmas 2023, Lulu was replaced by Vuori (not publicly traded), Nike by ON Holding, and Starbucks by Equator and Blue Bottle. Costco remains, although more purchases are coming from Whole Foods now that their prices have come down after the company was acquired by Amazon, and Amazon returns could be dropped off there.
Apple remains on the list, but now, the most notable shift yet: after driving two consecutive Teslas, she just placed a reservation for a Rivian R2 for year-end delivery. I was not in the market for a vehicle myself, but it is tempting and appears well-positioned to compete not just with mid-sized electric SUVs but also with traditional mid-size ICE SUVs (which is what I drive).
When Tesla released its consensus-beating sales and delivery figures on Thursday, July 2nd, the stock fell notably. When a stock sells off on objectively good news, it signals that the good news is fully priced in. At these lofty valuations, it is difficult to identify the next catalyst that could structurally drive shares higher.
While the near-term trend favors Rivian, we must remain clear-eyed about its fundamental realities. Rivian is not yet profitable and is unlikely to achieve net profitability before 2030. The company currently holds roughly $4.8 billion in cash on hand, according to its most recent quarterly report. However, consensus street expectations indicate that Rivian will burn through approximately $9 billion before turning cash-flow positive. This suggests that a dilutive secondary or debt issuance is inevitable over the medium term. Because of this structural overhang, we want to express a modestly bullish stance via premium collection rather than chasing the stock following a nearly 45% rally from the mid-May lows.
Rivian, YTD
To capture this divergence, we are deploying two high-probability option structures:
RIVN August 21st 16 Puts - Sell to Open @ $0.85/contract (5.3% yield-to-strike over less than 2 months, worst case own the stock at $15.15/share, a nearly 19% discount to the closing price on Thursday, July 2nd.)
TSLA July 31st 420/425 Call Spread, Sell to Open @ $1.35/credit. Modestly bearish, this vertical call spread provides a defined-risk mechanism to harvest premium as Tesla consolidates or drifts lower, maximizing profit if the stock remains below $420 through the July expiration.
Did you know that the global electric vehicle (EV) market is estimated to be worth more than $1 trillion this year? That's according to projections from analysts and Fortune Business Insights. And despite the massive size of the market, they expect it will still more than double and be worth close to $2.2 trillion by 2034, which translates into a compounded annual growth rate of just under 10% over that stretch.
Two popular stocks that could benefit from these opportunities are Tesla (TSLA +5.75%), which is already a beast with a massive valuation, and Rivian Automotive (RIVN +6.12%), which recently launched a new, more affordable EV that it hopes will allow it to capture more market share.
Which EV stock is the better long-term buy?
Image source: Getty Images.
The case for Tesla Over the years, Tesla has built up a strong brand in the EV market. Its name has become synonymous with EVs and, of course, its CEO, Elon Musk. The company has been facing headwinds due to growing competition, and thus its margins have been shrinking. However, it has an advantage over other smaller EV makers in that its operations are already profitable.
While its profits may be shrinking, many competitors would simply love to just be profitable. Last year, Tesla reported $3.8 billion in profit on revenue of just under $95 billion. Meanwhile, its vehicles remain in high demand, with Tesla reporting that for the second quarter, it made 480,126 deliveries, eclipsing analyst expectations of less than 407,000 by a wide margin.
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Tesla's stock is down 9% this year, but with the company's CEO always focused on growth and the next phase of innovation, including robotics, Tesla can be one of the most exciting growth stocks to own over the long run. Although there have been bumps along the way, it has generated fantastic returns for long-term investors.
The case for Rivian At around just $27 billion in market cap, Rivian is a far smaller company than Tesla, which is worth close to $1.6 trillion. Thus, there can be much more significant upside for investors here if the company proves there is strong demand for its vehicles.
In the second quarter, Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, which was higher than analyst projections of 11,000. But this number could be far higher in future quarters with its new, more modestly priced R2 SUV now available and early demand exceeding expectations. The company has raised its full-year delivery expectations, now projecting between 65,000 and 70,000 deliveries, up from the 62,000 to 67,000 it previously expected.
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Last year, the company's revenue grew by more than 8% to $5.4 billion, and it reduced its net loss significantly, from $4.7 billion in the previous year to $3.6 billion. While it's still a sizable loss, the company is showing signs of progress. More importantly, from a cash flow perspective, it used up significantly less cash from its day-to-day operating activities: $779 million versus $1.7 billion a year ago.
It's a long road ahead for the company, but if it succeeds and is able to grow while becoming profitable, the gains for the stock could be significant.
There is a risk with both of these stocks. Tesla is trading at an extremely high valuation, while Rivian's lack of profitability and positive cash flow are big concerns as well. However, Tesla is ultimately the safer stock to own due to its stronger financials. Rivian has a considerably more challenging road ahead as its gross margin was just 9% last year, and with it offering a lower-priced R2 model, it may be even more challenging for it to improve its margins in the near future.
Tesla is the better buy when compared to Rivian, but it may still be too risky for many investors.
Tesla stock is showing upward movement. Why is TSLA stock advancing? What Is Driving TSLA’s Earnings Expectations?Over the weekend, investor Gary Black argued Tesla’s Q2 delivery beat was helped by an Iran war-driven spike in gas prices to $3.86 per gallon over the July 4 weekend, up from $2.98 per gallon before the conflict. He also said he expects TSLA to rebound this week as the sell-side raises Q2 and FY 2026 earnings estimates, which could flow through to higher price targets.
Tesla’s delivery debate remains unusually wide, with Black calling estimates "all over the place" while still modeling close to 410,000 Q2 units versus ~406,000 consensus, about a 7% YoY surge if realized.
Premarket trading is taking place against a constructive index backdrop, with S&P 500 futures higher by 0.5%, which can amplify moves in high-beta mega-cap names like Tesla when sentiment improves.
Critical Price Levels To Watch For TSLATesla is sitting in a choppy, mean-reversion zone: it’s trading 0.3% below the 20-day SMA ($399.16) and 0.1% below the 100-day SMA ($398.08), while still 5% below the 200-day SMA ($418.61). That mix typically reads as "range-bound" rather than cleanly trending, especially with price repeatedly gravitating back toward the high-$300s moving-average cluster.
From a levels standpoint, the stock is trying to stabilize above a nearby floor while overhead supply remains obvious from prior pivots.
Key Resistance: $453.00 — a round-number area where rebounds can stall, and it sits well above the current moving-average cluster Key Support: $393.50 — a nearby pivot zone that’s close to current price and can act as the first "line in the sand" for dip-buyers TSLA Earnings Preview: What Analysts Expect for July 2026Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 22, 2026 (confirmed) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: 44 cents (Up from 40 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $25.24 Billion (Up from $22.50 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 361.0x (Indicates premium valuation) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $398.55. Recent analyst moves include:
Freedom Broker: Hold (Raises Target to $420.00) (July 2) Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Maintains Target to $415.00) (July 2) Truist Securities: Hold (Raises Target to $430.00) (July 2) Tesla’s Benzinga Edge Rankings: Strengths and WeaknessesBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Tesla, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
The Verdict: Tesla’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile with mixed momentum and a very weak value score. For longer-term bulls, that usually means the chart needs to confirm (via reclaiming major resistance), because the valuation leaves the stock more sensitive to earnings-estimate changes.
TSLA Stock Price MovementTSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla shares were up 0.20% at $394.24 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
By all accounts, the stock should be up. Deliveries and production of its electric vehicles (EVs) were both up sequentially and year over year, handily topping analysts' expectations.
Yet Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) shares tumbled on Thursday after its report showed it delivered 480,126 EVs during the three months ending in June while also manufacturing 451,758 automobiles. Most analysts were only looking for deliveries of a little over 400,000.
Data source: Tesla. Chart by author.
Importantly, strong deliveries cleared out Q1's concerning inventory buildup. The strong numbers confirm that the company can not only consistently make automobiles in large numbers but also that its brand still enjoys a certain marketability cache. It just wasn't enough to satisfy investors.
But there's more to the story.
Several stumbling blocks, all of which may have tripped the stock up There are a handful of theories about this stock's setback. And all of them are reasonable. All of them may have contributed to the sell-off, too.
The prevailing explanation is that American automakers Ford Motor Company and General Motors both suffered severe drop-offs in their U.S. electric vehicle businesses in Q2, which has obvious bearish implications for Tesla as well.
Image source: Getty Images.
It's not necessarily doing as well as it seemingly should be overseas, either. Although the company doesn't divulge regional unit data, the China Passenger Car Association reports that over half of Tesla's Q2 deliveries were made in China, where Tesla is doing well but not as well as its top EV rival BYD (BYDDY +3.68%). BYD delivered nearly 400,000 new-energy vehicles within China in June alone, versus only 89,091 Tesla-made EVs. Moreover, after a catastrophic drop in BYD's global deliveries in Q1 -- to levels below Tesla's -- the Chinese company bounced back last quarter, delivering a Tesla-beating 557,090 units worldwide.
Then there's the simple possibility that this is nothing more than a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, where good news is already priced into a stock. Once the news is reported, there's nothing else new to price in. The next move from that ticker's recent buyers is an exit. To this end, Tesla shares had rallied 12% in just the three days leading up to Thursday's report, setting the stage for profit-taking.
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Or, maybe investors were simply trying to clean up their portfolios before U.S. exchanges closed for a three-day holiday weekend.
Don't overthink it Regardless of the reason, Thursday's sizable sell-off doesn't necessarily mean much and certainly doesn't change the stock's overarching investment thesis. Tesla has always been a volatile ticker, pushed and pulled by an ever-changing global EV market, energy storage market, and soon, the AI robot market. You own this name for the long haul because it's a leading brand and has the greatest potential to capitalize on these industries' ongoing growth. That's also why you pay a premium for it.
To this end, all the post-report noise and chatter aside, Tesla's second-quarter delivery and production numbers are precisely the sort of progress and resiliency the bulls want to see ... at least on the EV front.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the likelihood of a merger between Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) at more than 80% over the next year, as the potential deal fits Elon Musk's broader artificial intelligence (AI) and data strategy.
Tesla invested $2 billion in SpaceX earlier in 2026, and that investment has given Tesla nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, representing less than 1% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.
Now, the bigger question for Tesla investors is whether a full merger would create a stronger AI, energy, connectivity, and robotics platform or dilute Tesla shareholder value by adding SpaceX's losses, heavy spending needs, and governance risks.
Image source: Getty Images.
Increasing credibility of the merger case SpaceX's June 2026 IPO has given the company a public stock price for the first time, which makes a possible stock-based merger of the two Elon Musk companies easier to value and structure.
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SpaceX would bring a growth engine that Tesla does not have. In 2025, SpaceX revenue rose to $18.7 billion, with the Starlink-powered connectivity unit accounting for about $11.4 billion of sales. Starlink's satellite internet user base had reached nearly 10.3 million by the end of the first quarter of 2026. If Tesla and SpaceX merge, Starlink would add a recurring-revenue business tied to satellites, consumer connectivity, and future mobile services.
Tesla is already spending heavily on AI, robotics, custom chips, and manufacturing capacity. The company raised its 2026 capital spending plan to more than $25 billion, up from its earlier $20 billion forecast. Tesla also expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026, despite generating $1.44 billion in free cash flow in the first quarter.
A merger with SpaceX could position Tesla as a broader platform company and create a more vertically integrated platform spanning AI, energy, mobility, and connectivity. Tesla would bring vehicles, robotaxis, Optimus robots, energy storage, and software-led services that generate customer demand. SpaceX would bring satellites, launch capacity, mobile connectivity, AI infrastructure, and xAI-related software needed to connect, power, and scale that platform.
Potential synergies Reuters reported that SpaceX and xAI bought about $650 million in goods and services from Tesla in 2025, including $506 million in Tesla Megapack batteries and $131 million in Cybertrucks. With Tesla already supplying energy storage and vehicles to other Musk-controlled businesses, a merger could build on existing business relationships rather than relying solely on promised future synergies.
Tesla's energy storage business could generate an estimated $18.3 billion of revenue in 2026, with gross profit of about $5.3 billion and gross margin near 29%. Since SpaceX and its xAI need large-scale power storage for AI and communications infrastructure, Tesla's Megapack business could become a more strategic internal supplier.
Reuters has also reported that SpaceX, xAI -- which it acquired -- and Tesla plan to build two advanced chip factories at the Terafab facility in Austin, Texas, including one for Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots and another for future AI data centers in space. Tesla and SpaceX are also working on Macrohard , an early-stage AI platform designed to automate digital workflows and improve how people work with computers. These projects make the case for a merger more concrete by showing that Tesla and SpaceX may already be developing shared technology, not just operating under the same CEO.
The Federal Communications Commission has approved 7,500 additional Gen2 Starlink satellites, bringing SpaceX's permitted Gen2 capacity to 15,000 satellites. SpaceX is also pushing deeper into direct-to-cell and U.S. mobile services. Over time, that could help Tesla's vehicles, robotaxis, charging sites, and energy assets stay connected. However, this is more of a future opportunity than something likely to add meaningful revenue right away.
SpaceX's next-generation Starship reusable rocket system is designed to carry more than 100 metric tons to orbit. If it works reliably, SpaceX could deploy larger satellite networks and future space-based infrastructure at lower cost, strengthening a combined company's infrastructure story. But investors should also treat this as a major execution risk, not a guaranteed advantage.
Tesla investors face risks The biggest challenge for a merger deal would be SpaceX's rich valuation. As I write this, the company trades at 77 times trailing-12-month sales, despite posting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025. The company's AI business also had a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025 and accounted for $12.7 billion of the company's capital expenditures that year. A merger could move those losses, capital needs, and AI-infrastructure risks closer to Tesla shareholders.
Tesla also has major execution risks of its own. Reuters found that its robotaxi service in Texas still faced long wait times, limited availability, navigation problems, and safety challenges in some vehicles. If Tesla is still proving vehicle autonomy and SpaceX is still proving AI infrastructure, a merger would combine two long-term bets rather than clearly reducing risk.
CEO Elon Musk reportedly controlled 42.5% of SpaceX's equity and 83.8% of its voting power before the IPO. After the offering, Musk was expected to retain about 82.4% of SpaceX's voting power. He also owns around 19.9% stake in Tesla's common stock.
Musk's level of influence could make a Tesla-SpaceX deal easier to pursue, but it also makes fairness more important. Tesla shareholders would need confidence that the deal price properly reflects SpaceX's losses, Tesla's own growth potential, and the companies' existing business ties.
So, the real question for shareholders is whether the deal would create more value than Tesla and SpaceX could create separately. Until investors see terms, valuation, board process, and a clearer path from synergy to cash flow, a potential merger should be treated as a serious possibility rather than a proven value creator.
Two companies that agree on almost nothing closed Thursday agreeing on exactly one thing: what they're worth. Meta Platforms (META 4.80%) and Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) each ended the week at a market value of about $1.48 trillion.
Meta got there by falling. Its shares sit about 27% below their 52-week high, including a 4.9% slide on Thursday alone, as investors fret over its swelling spending plans and what artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots and agents could mean for its advertising machine. Tesla got there by falling, too -- about 21% below its high -- but on the same day it reported second-quarter deliveries up about 25% year over year.
Same price tag, very different businesses. Which one wins from here?
Image source: Getty Images.
Meta's first quarter made the bear case harder to hold. Revenue rose 33% year over year to $56.31 billion, and the growth came from both levers of the social media giant's ad business: impressions climbed 19% while the average price per ad rose 12%. About 3.56 billion people used its apps daily in March, up 4% from a year earlier -- a figure that dipped slightly from the prior quarter on internet disruptions in Iran and a WhatsApp restriction in Russia, offering a reminder of how much of the planet this network already covers.
Meta's profits remain impressive, too. The social network's operating income rose 30% to $22.9 billion, holding the company's operating margin at a staggering 41%. Reported earnings per share of $10.44 were aided by an $8.03 billion one-time income tax benefit, but even stripping that out, earnings per share grew by double digits.
Meanwhile, the bear case for the stock is about the bill. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion, citing pricier components and additional data center costs. Total costs already grew 35% last quarter, faster than revenue -- an early hint of that spending reaching the income statement.
But at about 19 times forward earnings, much of that worry appears to be priced in already.
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Tesla: the case at $1.48 trillion Tesla's recent news flow looks better than its stock. The company delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, its strongest second-quarter volume in years -- and the market sold the report anyway, sending the shares down 7.5% in a day.
The reason for this disconnect probably lies in the income statement. In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue grew 16% year over year while it posted a 4.2% operating margin, and the company has earned just $1.10 per share over the past 12 months. And even on analysts' consensus forecast for earnings per share over the next 12 months, the stock trades above 200 times -- about 10 times Meta's forward multiple.
What that price buys is the future: an autonomy business that took a visible step on Friday, when Tesla's robotaxi service began carrying riders in Miami, its first market outside Texas and California. The expansion cadence is encouraging. But the revenue from it, for now, is not disclosed and almost certainly small.
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Which one wins from here? Given Tesla's low earnings today, its stock is clearly priced almost entirely on future expectations, while Meta's is based on the strong profits it's already producing.
Meta produced $22.9 billion of operating income in a single quarter. And Meta's 33% revenue growth rate is double what Tesla's revenue managed in its most recent reported quarter.
For the same $1.48 trillion, one stock offers 33% revenue growth at about 19 times forward earnings. The other offers 16% growth at more than 200 times, plus a claim on robotaxis and humanoid robots whose economics one can only speculate about.
So, which stock do I think will outperform from here?
Meta.
Sure, we can't completely rule out the possibility that Tesla ends up winning over the long haul. If its Robotaxi business morphs into a high-margin operation and it scales humanoid robots profitably, profits could soar, and the stock could benefit. But the value proposition for Meta stock simply asks investors to believe a business already growing 33% keeps executing.
When two businesses are priced the same, I'd rather own the one whose results, not ambitions, carry the price -- especially when the underlying earnings are this far apart. With that said, I'd revisit that view if Tesla starts publishing robotaxi economics that support the excitement -- or if Meta's spending stops showing up as growth.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) and BYD (OTC:BYDDF) sit at opposite poles of the electric vehicle world.
Tesla just posted a sharp Q1 margin rebound while pouring cash into robotics and autonomy. BYD, the world’s largest new energy vehicle maker by volume, keeps flooding global markets with affordable EVs and plug-in hybrids. The businesses barely resemble each other anymore, which is exactly why this quarter is worth comparing.
Margin Recovery Lifts Tesla. Volume and Vertical Integration Anchor BYD. Tesla’s Q1 2026 print was a genuine turnaround quarter. Revenue hit $22.387 billion, up 15.78% year over year, and automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2%. Operating income jumped 135.84% to $941 million. That is a real profitability inflection after a brutal 2025, when full year net income fell 46.79%.
The mix tells the story. Services and other revenue climbed 42% as FSD active subscriptions reached 1.28 million, up 51% year over year. Software is finally showing up in the P&L. Energy revenue slipped 12%, a rare soft spot after a record 2025.
BYD’s business runs on a different engine. It builds Blade Battery cells in-house, sells across the Dynasty, Ocean, Denza, Yangwang, and Fang Cheng Bao brands, and pushes hard into Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Chairman Wang Chuanfu has kept the company obsessively focused on cost per vehicle and battery supply, not autonomy software.
Robotaxi Bet vs. Sub-$15,000 EV Bet Lens Tesla BYD Core bet FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus Affordable EVs and PHEVs at scale Vertical edge Custom AI silicon with SpaceX fab Blade Battery and in-house electronics Key vulnerability Autonomy timelines slipping China tariffs in EU and US Tesla’s $1.95 billion R&D quarter, unsupervised Robotaxi launches in Dallas and Houston, and Optimus lines designed for 1 million robots per year in Fremont point to a software and robotics endgame. Prediction markets are less convinced. Polymarket traders put only a 0.1 probability on an Optimus release by year-end and just 0.22 on a California Robotaxi launch by December 31.
BYD is taking a different path, undercutting legacy automakers on sticker price and betting anti-involution policy support flagged by Morningstar will consolidate share toward Chinese EV conglomerates such as BYD and Geely.
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Deliveries, Tariffs, and Whether Software Revenue Compounds I will be watching Tesla’s Q2 delivery cadence, the Cybercab pilot ramp at Gigafactory Texas, and whether FSD subscriber growth keeps compounding above 50%.
For BYD, tariff outcomes in Europe and export volumes into ASEAN and Brazil are the swing factors. You should also keep an eye on battery pack capacity, which Tesla flagged as its limiting factor on vehicle production.
Why I Lean Toward BYD on Value, Tesla on Optionality Tesla trades at a forward P/E of 217 with a $421.16 analyst target against a current $393.45. The stock is down 12.51% year to date after a 7.49% single-day drop.
BYD shares sit at $10.20, off 34.3% over one year. If I want optionality on autonomy and robotics, Tesla is the vehicle, and I accept the multiple.
In case I want an operationally excellent, cash-generative automaker at a beaten-down price, BYD looks more interesting to me. If input costs and tariff policy stay volatile, I would rather wait than force either position.
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It may have been a short trading week, but Cathie Wood kept busy with her long positions. The founder and CEO of Ark Invest was actively making moves across her collection of ETFs, buying and in some cases selling investments. Let's talk about some of the latest purchases.
Ark was a buyer of Tesla Motors (TSLA 7.35%), SoFi Technologies (SOFI 1.06%), and Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX +3.54%) on Thursday. Tesla shares fell more than 7% on the final trading session ahead of the Independence Day market holiday. SoFi and Recursion are trading 44% and 47% below their 52-week highs, respectively. Wood can be aggressive when it comes to growth investing, so let's take a closer look at these three stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Tesla Motors The world's most valuable automaker by market cap is also Wood's largest position. Wood has a $1 billion position in Tesla across all of Ark's ETFs. Tesla stock tumbled 7.5% on Thursday after posting its production and delivery results for the second quarter.
Despite the market's uninspired reaction, the numbers were better than expected. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles through April, May, and June, a 25% increase from the 384,122 sedans and Cybertrucks it moved a year earlier. It's the strongest quarter for Tesla deliveries since the third quarter of last year, when the 497,099 vehicles delivered were fueled by the expiration of federal tax credits in the U.S. of up to $7,500. Analysts had been forecasting only 406,024 deliveries a week earlier.
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Tesla's jump wasn't the result of a turnaround in U.S. sales. It was a sharp spike in fuel prices that sparked demand across Europe. Investors will take it. After its first year of declining revenue in 2025, the positive rebound in the first quarter wasn't a fluke.
It's also worth noting that Tesla produced only 451,758 vehicles during the quarter. After back-to-back periods of producing more units than it could deliver, Tesla cleared out some of its excess inventory.
The strong deliveries don't guarantee a blowout performance when Tesla reports its second-quarter results on July 22. There was heavy promotional activity to move cars, particularly in Europe. Revenue should come in strong, but will margins suffer as a result of the incentives provided to improve its inventory situation? Wood seems to think that Tesla will do just fine.
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2. SoFi Technologies Here's a fun fact about digital branchless bank SoFi Technologies: Ark added to its stake in the company every single trading day this week. SoFi has grown into a platform with 14.7 million members, a 35% jump over the past year.
Are you familiar with the Rule of 40? It's a metric used primarily to gauge the growth health of software-as-a-service companies, but it also applies to subscription-based fintech platforms. SoFi continues to kill it on that front. To calculate the score, take a company's reported or adjusted revenue growth, which in SoFi's case was 41% in adjusted top-line growth for its latest quarter. Then add a cash flow profitability metric, which for SoFi is its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Its adjusted EBITDA margin was 31% for the quarter, giving it a score of 72. Anything above 40 is a sign of a fast-growing company that is getting the job done without sacrificing its operating efficiency. SoFi has been holding up well north of 40 on this front for more than four years.
The shares aren't cheap, even after SoFi stock's 30% decline in 2026. It's currently trading for 31 times forward earnings and 23 times next year's analyst profit target. This is reasonable given its strong growth, but it's also high among financial services stocks.
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3. Recursion Pharmaceuticals Finally, we have Recursion Pharmaceuticals. It's one of the smaller companies in Ark's portfolio, with a market cap of $2 billion. It also trades at a small price, just below $4 per share. Ark owns roughly $115 million of the stock, so more than 5% of all shares outstanding.
Recursion is using artificial intelligence to reinvent the drug discovery process. The clinical-stage techbio company has just $66 million in trailing revenue, and losses have widened with every passing year. This isn't a bet that will pay off right away. It has already attracted some notable investors and believers, and they know they'll have to wait for a major windfall. Wood isn't known for her patience, but she's certainly a believer right now.
Bill Ackman has made it clear: He wants to be the next Warren Buffett. That's easier said than done, to be sure. But the fund manager in charge of Pershing Square has revamped his investment style since his activist days and runs a concentrated portfolio of long-term, mostly passive holdings.
So, it's no surprise that Ackman's investment decisions are rooted in the same investment philosophy as Warren Buffett's. That said, Ackman has notably invested in one area Buffett historically avoided: technology stocks. Some of Ackman's largest holdings are the big tech stocks Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms. When asked why Ackman is interested in those companies but not other members of the "Magnificent Seven," such as Tesla (TSLA 7.35%), Ackman's response echoed wisdom shared by Buffett over the years.
Image source: Tesla.
Ackman likes Tesla's products and has a lot of respect for its CEO, Elon Musk. Ackman even said in a recent interview that he drives a Tesla. But Tesla's stock has become detached from the current product it sells: the car that Ackman, who can purchase any car he likes, has chosen to use.
"To own Tesla at today's valuation, you have to make some grand assumptions about robotics and other things that they're going to achieve over time," Ackman said. "Our portfolio is comprised of businesses where we, with a very high degree of confidence, can predict the cash flows over a very long period of time. I think it's very hard to do that with Tesla."
Tesla's stock currently trades for over 200 times forward earnings estimates. It's an automaker trading at 15 times sales, while other car companies trade at sales multiples below 1. While its vehicle deliveries are growing about 10% year over year and expected to continue doing so through 2030, that's far from justifying the enormous multiples on the stock.
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Indeed, Tesla is a $1.5 trillion company because investors expect it to earn tremendous profits from developing autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots in the future. The vast majority of bull cases for Tesla, such as Ark Invest's valuation, stem from its fledgling robotaxi efforts. And now Musk is dedicating a significant amount of Tesla's manufacturing capacity to its humanoid robot, Optimus, which is a massive bet on labor disruption.
How either effort will play out is very hard to predict. And if Ackman can't predict it with a high level of confidence, he stays away. It's that simple. It's the same philosophy Buffett used.
Tesla could go on to scale both very quickly and very profitably, but it could also fall flat. As Buffett said in his 1996 letter to shareholders, "I would rather be certain of a good result than hopeful of a great one." And that defines Ackman's focus when evaluating companies in today's market.
The companies that Ackman can predict with certainty While Buffett mostly stayed away from tech companies due to the industry's rapidly changing landscape, Ackman sees some parts of the sector as far more predictable than others. That's true even in artificial intelligence, where multiple companies are constantly pushing the boundaries of innovation. In particular, he holds significant stakes in Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
The first two companies operate the world's largest public cloud platforms: Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Both have seen tremendous demand amid the AI boom, prompting them to spend large sums of capital building out capacity. Both plan to spend around $200 billion on building and outfitting new data centers this year. That spending is weighing on both companies' free cash flow for the year and their stock prices.
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However, that spending comes with a high degree of certainty that the companies will see a good return on investment. Amazon Web Services had a backlog of $364 billion in contracted revenue as of the end of the first quarter, plus it signed a $100 billion deal with Anthropic that's not included in that amount. Likewise, Microsoft has $627 billion in remaining performance obligations across Azure and its productivity software business. Both should see their cloud revenue accelerate in line with the acceleration in their capital expenditures.
Meanwhile, Meta could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of advances in generative AI thanks to its tremendous scale. Improvements in recommendations, ad creation, and targeting have increased both engagement and ad pricing, resulting in strong revenue growth in the core advertising business. Generative AI also opens new opportunities for business AI chatbots on its messaging apps, which could be a massive revenue stream down the road. Management has also seen strong engagement with its own chatbot, Meta AI, which could be another monetization avenue.
Importantly, all three companies are currently trading at historically low valuations. That means there's significant room for error in any predictions about future cash flows. And while all three are certainly poised to deliver strong operating results over the long run, their current stock prices discount future earnings more than those of many other AI stocks, including Tesla. That combination of predictability and price is what gives Ackman the confidence to make them significant positions in his portfolio.
A large percentage of AI stocks already trade at a rich premium. So despite these companies' promising long-term revenue growth potential, investors may not profit as much as they predict.
To realize the biggest profits, AI investors must find AI stocks trading at low valuations. This is easier said than done. The trick isn't necessarily to buy out-of-favor AI stocks -- as very few exist at this time -- but to find stocks that the market doesn't yet realize are AI stocks. This way, investors can buy into AI stocks without the AI stock premium.
After falling 20% in value since 2026, the business below looks like a promising bet for AI investors looking to avoid the AI premium.
The market still doesn't appreciate this is an AI stock Rivian Automotive (RIVN +8.44%) is my favorite AI stock for the second half of 2026. But wait, isn't Rivian an electric vehicle (EV) stock? It is. But just like Tesla, the company has pivoted hard toward AI to power its autonomous driving ambitions.
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At one time, the market did appreciate Rivian's AI pivot. Last year, from Nov. 4 to Dec. 19, shares nearly doubled in value. What was the cause? The surge was at least partially due to the company's first "AI Day," which was held on Dec. 11.
During that event, Rivian announced several key strategy shifts. The company's future would no longer be tied simply to producing consumer-grade vehicles. Instead, technology would become the unmistakable focus. For example, Rivian now plans to produce its own AI chips, invest so heavily into self-driving software that it no longer expects to be profitable by 2027, and integrate AI more heavily into its production process to reduce costs and improve throughput.
Image source: Getty Images.
Quite quickly, however, the hype surrounding Rivian's AI event faded. Shares have lost nearly one-third of their value since Dec. 19. But when you look at the numbers, there's plenty of reason to remain bullish. This year, analysts expect sales to grow by around 31%. Next year, sales growth should jump to 64%.
This growth is largely due to Rivian's launch of its first affordable vehicle priced under $50,000: its R2 SUV. Production and sales growth are just now beginning to scale. Long-term, however, Rivian's pivot to AI is already paying off. In March -- just a few months after its first AI event -- Uber Technologies placed a $1.25 billion order for up to 50,000 Rivian R2s. Uber wants to scale its own robotaxi service. And it's apparently so bullish on Rivian's technology that it wanted to make sure it could secure plenty of vehicles as that business emerges.
It's not yet clear how this order will translate into accounting revenue, given it was structured as a direct investment. But it's a clear sign that well-funded robotaxi operators like what they see coming out of Rivian. Rivian shares still trade at just 3.4 times sales. As its AI pivot gains traction, expect that valuation to improve.
Jaké faktory budou v druhé polovině roku určovat vývoj světových trhů? Analytici Patria Finance ve svém rozsáhlém investičním výhledu mapují klíčová rizika i příležitosti pro akcie, dluhopisy, měny a technologický sektor.
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Tesla (TSLA 7.49%) just posted its strongest second-quarter deliveries in its history, and shareholders responded by knocking about 7.5% off the stock in a single session -- its worst day in nearly a year. On Thursday, the electric-car maker said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% year over year, about 74,000 more than the 406,000 or so analysts had modeled.
By any normal reading, that is a blowout. So why did the stock fall so hard?
Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.
A record quarter the market shrugged off Tesla's deliveries were not just a jump from a year earlier. They marked a 34% leap from the 358,023 vehicles Tesla delivered in the first quarter.
In short, deliveries have swung from declining a year ago to a second-quarter record -- exactly the kind of turn the bulls have been waiting for.
So what gives?
Part of the answer is that investors saw it coming. Tesla shares had climbed about 12% in the weeks before the report, so by the time the figure landed, much of the good news was already priced in. A sell-the-news reaction like this is common when a stock runs up into a catalyst.
But there is a deeper reason the market held back, and it has little to do with how many cars Tesla delivered.
What the market is actually pricing There are a few underlying problems that investors may be concerned about.
First and foremost, there's a lingering question about how many of these sales were driven by a short-term spike in gas prices, as some consumers likely sought ways to save on transportation costs by switching to electric vehicles.
Then there are hints that the volume came at a cost. Production of 451,758 vehicles ran about 28,000 units below deliveries, meaning Tesla drew down existing inventory to hit the headline number rather than building stock. That raises a fair question about how much of the quarter was driven by end-of-quarter incentives.
Finally, some investors may worry that the company's push to introduce more aggressively priced models could be hurting margins. In the first quarter, Tesla's overall gross margin was 21.1%, with automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits closer to 19%. If the second quarter's record volume was driven by more aggressively priced vehicles, those figures could slip even further. And for a stock priced the way this one is, that may matter more than the delivery count.
There is precedent for the worry. Tesla spent much of the past two years cutting prices to keep its factories full, and each cut chipped away at the profit on every car sold. Automotive gross margin has already fallen well off its peak.
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And the stock is priced aggressively. At about 360 times earnings, Tesla trades like a company betting its future on autonomy and software (of course, it ultimately is doing this), not on selling more cars this quarter. A valuation like that, therefore, relies on soaring profits, so the market wants proof that the volume was profitable rather than always leaning on more speculative, longer-term business initiatives.
Of course, a record quarter shows demand is healthier than the bears feared. But the bull case here isn't really about how many cars Tesla sells this year. Instead, it rests on turning self-driving software and a nascent robotaxi fleet into high-margin, recurring revenue.
The figures and management commentary we really need will arrive on July 22, when Tesla reports full second-quarter financial results.
Personally, I wouldn't read Thursday's drop as a verdict on the quarter -- it looks more like the market deferring judgment and the stock taking a breather after a big run-up. The report needs to show that Tesla moved 480,000 cars without sacrificing margin. And, even more, Tesla will need to once again reassure investors that its higher-margin initiatives are making progress.
Tesla Inc. TSLA expanded its robotaxi service to Miami on Friday, extending its autonomous ride-hailing operations.
The move comes as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk increasingly emphasizes artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous transportation as key drivers of Tesla's future, alongside its electric vehicle business.
"Robotaxi now available in Miami," Tesla's official robotaxi account said in a post on X.
The Miami launch marks Tesla's latest step in broadening access to its robotaxi platform, which relies on the company's self-driving software.
Tesla launched its unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June and later announced plans to expand the offering to Dallas and Houston.
The company has recently rolled out services in those cities as it seeks to increase adoption of its autonomous driving technology.
The expansion reflects Tesla's broader effort to commercialize self-driving transportation and build new revenue streams tied to artificial intelligence and robotics.
Musk said in May that he expects fully self-driving vehicles operating without human safety monitors to become more common across the United States later this year.
Tesla's latest expansion comes as competition in the autonomous ride-hailing sector continues to intensify.
Companies, including Alphabet's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox, have accelerated their own expansion efforts as the market for autonomous transportation develops.
While Tesla has expanded into additional cities, the scale of its robotaxi operations remains relatively limited compared with some rivals.
According to registration information submitted to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles under new state reporting requirements that took effect in May, Tesla currently operates 42 robotaxis in Texas.
The disclosure provides the clearest picture yet of the size of Tesla's autonomous fleet in the state, where the company launched its robotaxi service in Austin last year.
By comparison, Alphabet-owned Waymo has registered 577 automated vehicles in Texas, according to information published by the state, giving it a fleet more than 13 times larger than Tesla's.
Autonomous transportation remains a key component of Musk's effort to transform Tesla from primarily an electric vehicle manufacturer into a broader artificial intelligence and robotics company.
Tesla's robotaxi ambitions have become increasingly important to the company's investment narrative, with investors closely monitoring the pace of deployment and expansion.
The company also operates a rideshare service in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Tesla said in April that it was preparing to expand its robotaxi operations to five additional cities.
However, Musk has cautioned that the network is unlikely to generate meaningful revenue for the company this year.
The Miami launch follows another positive development for Tesla this week.
On Thursday, the company reported second-quarter vehicle deliveries that exceeded Wall Street expectations, supported by a rebound in European demand.
The stock, however, ended the day deep in the red.
For years, CEO Elon Musk championed the opposite approach. Tesla built its reputation on a lean lineup, fewer configurations and manufacturing simplicity, arguing that limiting complexity was key to scaling production and protecting margins. The Model Y L suggests the company may now be willing to trade some of that simplicity for incremental growth.
Tesla on Thursday launched the long-wheelbase, six-seat Model Y L in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, featuring second-row captain’s chairs, a third row, up to 325 miles of range, a 0-60 mph time of 4.4 seconds and a starting price of $61,990 for the Launch Series. Production has begun at Giga Texas, with deliveries expected to start in September.
Model Y L Expands Tesla’s Best SellerThe Model Y has become Tesla’s volume driver, and instead of waiting for a brand-new mass-market vehicle, the company is expanding the appeal of the model it already knows customers want.
Tesla, by contrast, has historically resisted flooding its lineup with variants, preferring to keep manufacturing streamlined and product offerings limited.
Tesla’s Strategy Starts to Look More Like Detroit’sThe Model Y L doesn’t mean Tesla is abandoning innovation. But it does suggest the company is becoming more pragmatic as EV demand matures and competition intensifies.
Instead of chasing growth solely through breakthrough products, Tesla appears increasingly focused on extracting more value from its existing lineup. Expanding the Model Y into a three-row family SUV allows the automaker to target a broader customer base without the cost and development timeline of launching an entirely new nameplate.
It’s a strategy that has worked well for legacy automakers, particularly in the profitable SUV segment, where multiple configurations often coexist under the same model family.
What Investors Should WatchWhether the Model Y L becomes a sales hit remains to be seen, but the bigger takeaway for investors may be Tesla’s evolving philosophy. If the company continues broadening its existing lineup with targeted variants instead of relying exclusively on all-new models, it could unlock additional demand while keeping capital spending in check.
More importantly, the launch suggests Tesla is entering a new phase—one where growth may come not just from inventing the next blockbuster vehicle, but from maximizing the one it already has.
Image via Shutterstock
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Key Takeaways Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026, but shares fell 7.5% on margin concerns. TSLA's long-term outlook includes robotics, AI, and energy storage despite execution risks.ETFs like TEXN provide diversified exposure to TSLA's upside. Electric vehicle (“EV”) giant Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has delivered a record-breaking 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, crushing Wall Street estimates of around 406,000 and marking a 25% year-over-year improvement. Yet, instead of celebrating, investors sent the stock down 7.5% on July 2, its worst single-day drop in nearly a year.
The decline highlights a critical market reality — investors remain deeply anxious over the company’s compressed automotive profit margins and high-pricing discounts utilized to secure those delivery numbers.
This sudden dip might tempt cautious investors to run away from Tesla. However, the company's diverse exposure to automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing gives it access to a combined addressable market of roughly $3.9 trillion by 2035, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term AI and robotics play, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta.
Against this backdrop, a wiser strategy may be to pivot toward exchange-traded funds (ETFs). By allocating capital into ETFs that bundle Tesla with other industry giants, investors can still tap into the explosive potential of its burgeoning humanoid robotics segment without bearing the brunt of a single-stock crash.
Before identifying these ETFs, it's important to understand why Tesla retains strong long-term potential despite its recent slump, and why we advocate the relative safety of a diversified fund.
Tesla's Growth Prospects Beyond Just CarsThe stellar delivery figure comes as a much-needed breather for Tesla's EV segment, which had been facing a downturn due to intense competition from Chinese automakers like BYD and a consumer backlash against Elon Musk. In fact, last year TSLA saw a decline in its delivery numbers in most quarters, except the third quarter.
In addition to poor delivery figures, challenges such as the loss of a U.S. federal tax credit and rising competition have weighed on the company’s quarterly performance in the recent past.
However, the latest delivery figures show structural resilience of its vehicle business, a trend we witnessed in the first quarter as well.
Beyond cars, Tesla’s true long-term upside lies in its shift toward artificial intelligence (AI) and its humanoid robot, Optimus. CEO Elon Musk has heavily emphasized that the vast majority of Tesla's long-term enterprise value, nearly 80%, will stem from the robotics sector.
To this end, it is imperative to mention that as Tesla is converting its Model S/X production lines in Fremont to build Optimus robots, analysts at Counterpoint believe the automaker’s experience in scaling EV production could help it reach 100,000 Optimus units annually much faster than its early car programs, unlocking billions in potential revenue stream over the long run.
In addition, Tesla’s Energy Generation and Storage business remains a key diversification lever, led by Megapack and Powerwall, with the company’s energy storage deployments being 8.8 gigawatt-hour in the first quarter of 2026.
The Case in Favor of Diversification Via ETFsDespite the long-term growth opportunities that TSLA has to offer, many investors remain highly skeptical, the primary reason being the EV giant’s sky-high valuation.
With a forward 12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 173, the company is trading at almost 11 times the average of its peer group. This premium prices in the promise of robotics. However, many analysts have expressed severe concern over the actual timeline of the humanoid business, with reports indicating that the engineering timeline for Optimus faces monumental production friction.
Given the uncertainties of such execution risks, missed production targets, as well as fierce competition in the robotics space from established players like Boston Dynamics, gaining exposure to ETFs is an intelligent insulation strategy. Funds that feature Tesla among their top holdings offer robust exposure to any upside fueled by an Optimus breakthrough. They will shield you from unprecedented single-stock price shocks by balancing the portfolio with other highly profitable industry giants.
ETFs to ConsiderConsidering the aforementioned discussion, investors looking for significant Tesla exposure while enjoying the fruits of gains from other industry leaders via diversification may consider the following ETFs for their portfolio:
The Nightview Fund (NITE - Free Report)
This fund, with net assets worth $31.8 million, seeks long-term capital appreciation, with a goal of outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index over a rolling five-year period. It typically holds 15-25 securities that trade on U.S. exchanges. TSLA (with 13.8% weightage), NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) (8.6%), and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) (8.1%) hold the first three positions in this fund.
NITE has soared 17.6% over the past year. The fund charges 125 basis points (bps) in fees.
This fund, with net asset value (NAV) of $53.61, seeks daily investment results equal to 200% of the performance of the seven largest Nasdaq-listed companies. NVDA (15.53%), Apple (15.32%), and Alphabet (15.8%) hold the first three positions in this fund. TSLA holds the sixth spot in this fund, with 12.44% weightage.
QQQU has rallied 18.1% over the past year. The fund charges 98 bps as fees.
This fund, with net assets worth $2.4 million, offers exposure to stocks of autonomous technology and robotics companies. TSLA (10.86%), Advanced Micro Devices (6.93%), and Teradyne (6.81%) hold the first three positions in this fund.
ARKQ surged 44.1% over the past year. The fund charges 75 bps as fees.
iShares Texas Equity ETF (TEXN - Free Report)
This fund, with net assets worth $16.5 million, offers exposure to 211 companies headquartered in the state of Texas. TSLA (10.84%), Exxon Mobil (9.79%), and Caterpillar Inc. (7.78%) hold the first three positions in this fund.
TEXN has soared 23.3% over the past year. The fund charges 20 bps as fees.
A Tesla Robotaxi vehicle with a safety monitor employee in the passenger seat drives through traffic in Austin, Texas, U.S., February 13, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Garcia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 3 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab said on Friday its robotaxi was available in Miami, as the electric vehicle maker looks to expand its autonomous ride-hailing operations.
The expansion highlights Tesla's efforts to increase adoption of its self-driving software, a version of which it uses in the robotaxis and a key part of CEO Elon Musk's shift from EVs to AI and robotics.
Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.
"Robotaxi now available in Miami," Tesla's official robotaxi account said in a post on X.
Tesla's move comes as the robotaxi sector gains momentum, with competitors such as Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo and Amazon's (AMZN.O), opens new tab Zoox accelerating their expansion efforts.
Tesla launched its unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, after announcing in April plans to expand the offering to Dallas and Houston.
Musk said in May he expects fully self-driving cars without human safety monitors to become more widespread in the U.S. later this year.
On Thursday, Tesla posted record-setting second-quarter deliveries that beat Wall Street estimates, led by a rebound in Europe.
Reporting by Koyena Das in Bengaluru Editing by Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) blowout Q2 delivery report is a legitimate win for the bulls. However, I’d argue that this beat does not settle the bigger debate around the stock.
What is this debate, you might ask?
Well, there’s a near-term and long-term view of how Tesla’s sales and deliveries have grown (or not) over time, and what this may portend for cash flow down the road. With a strong quarter in which Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles (up 25% year over year and well above consensus), one might think the debate is settled – this is a growth stock that continues to grow at a strong pace. That said, I do think the company’s longer-term investment case still hinges far more on autonomy, robotics, margin structure, and valuation than on one strong print.
Let’s Dive Into the Numbers The headline number was strong enough to turn heads. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles and delivered 480,126 EVs. What this means in plain English is that Tesla once again shipped more cars than it built, working down its existing inventory.
I will say, this is likely a positive catalyst for the company, in that Tesla is looking to run down its inventory rather than adding to what many view as a surplus of unsold vehicles. And if the company is able to refresh its models and generate more sales globally, perhaps this is a company that could be on the verge of a growth reacceleration (25% year over year growth is indeed a strong figure).
The thing is, this growth comes on the back of a weak start to the year, so the comps were low to begin with. And while Tesla now looks like a much cleaner operator, this also points to the reality that demand may be softening across the board for the EV market more broadly – of which Tesla is no longer the global industry leader.
I do think for bulls (and we’ll get to that in a minute) this beat was important because the market had been bracing for another soft result after a stretch of declining sales and rising skepticism around Tesla’s core auto business. Instead, Tesla posted its best second quarter ever, which helps reset sentiment and reduces the immediate bear argument that the business was sliding into a more permanent demand problem.
Bull Case I think it’s important to start any bull case around Tesla with discussing the company’s CEO, Elon Musk. After launching the world’s biggest ever IPO (and becoming the world’s first trillionaire), it’s impossible not to point out the genius with which Musk has been able to pick trends, and get in at the right time. I think few can deny this point.
The reality also is that the electric vehicle revolution, and some of the other endeavors Tesla is directly or indirectly linked to, are still in their early innings of growth. If Tesla can become the autonomous driving, robotaxi, and Optimus company many bulls think, Tesla vehicles are simply a smaller piece of a much larger platform story.
In other words, vehicle unit growth doesn’t matter as much in a world where the company is generating far more from its software and services over the long-term. That’s the playbook Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other tech giants have rolled out, with great profitability.
On the near-term side, this report also gives bulls evidence that Tesla’s core EV business is not broken. A 25% year-over-year delivery gain, plus a meaningful sequential jump, suggests the brand still has global pull and that some earlier concerns about collapsing demand may have been overstated. If deliveries can stabilize and margins hold up, the company has a better shot at keeping investor confidence while the optionality story develops.
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Bear Case The bear case remains strong around Tesla, at least from my perspective.
As mentioned, I see a growing softening in the global EV market, due to a number of key factors. Electricity prices have surged as AI demand has taken off. Thus, while one component of Elon Musk’s empire surges, another leg of his portfolio investing strategy is wobbly. And with greater competition in the EV market, consumers have more options to choose from with brands that may stand for different things. This goes back to Musk’s divisive personality, and his popularity (or lack thereof) with a percentage of the population.
I also think that one quarter does not necessarily answer all the structural questions investors have around this firm. It’s widely known that Tesla’s auto business still generates the bulk of the company’s revenue, and that’s a dynamic I think will be at play for at least the next three to five years. Perhaps some investors will hold on for the ride (and those who have since the beginning, kudos to you). But for the short-term investors out there, weak quarters in 2026 or 2027 could derail the stock’s investing thesis.
That’s to say nothing of the fact that Tesl remains heavily dependent on Model 3 and Model Y, which accounted for the vast majority of deliveries. Without refreshes, there’s little to suggest that demand could continue to surge for quarters or years to come.
Bearish investors will also argue that Tesla’s valuation already discounts a very optimistic future. In that framing, even a strong delivery quarter may not matter much if the market is still pricing the stock as a high-growth AI and autonomy story rather than a car company. That is why the stock can still move on expectations, not just on reported deliveries.
Why Investors Need to Think Long-Term This is where the debate gets interesting. Delivery beats matter most when the market is focused on whether Tesla’s core auto franchise is deteriorating, and this report clearly helps there. But for long-term investors, the bigger question is whether Tesla can turn its capital, software, and data advantages into businesses that are materially more profitable than selling cars.
That is why near-term results do not fully settle the thesis. If Tesla eventually proves out autonomy, robotics, or a higher-margin software layer, then quarterly vehicle deliveries will look like an input, not the story itself. If those efforts disappoint, then the market may eventually re-rate Tesla more like a cyclical automaker with a premium brand and a difficult competitive landscape.
For investors, the right takeaway is not to overreact in either direction. The quarter strengthens the bull argument that Tesla still has demand, execution, and global scale, but it does not eliminate the bear argument that the stock is expensive relative to today’s fundamentals. In other words, this was a good operational update, but the investment case still lives or dies on what Tesla becomes over the next several years, not what it sold this quarter.
Personally, I’m still bearish on Tesla stock, despite this company’s recent performance. I think at some point, the numbers will matter. Until then, this is a story stock that’s still writing its own fairy tale.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) and SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) sit on opposite ends of Elon Musk’s empire this July. Tesla is walking into a July 22 Q2 earnings report with vehicle margins under a microscope. SpaceX is fresh off its historic June IPO, riding institutional rotation into launch, Starlink, and its newly folded-in xAI compute segment.
Tesla Ground Out a Beat. SpaceX Rode Its Debut. Tesla’s Q1 came in ahead of estimates. Revenue of $22.387 billion grew 15.78% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 topped the $0.3481 consensus. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%, aided by lower material costs, higher ASPs, and warranty and tariff benefits. That is a meaningful reversal after a soft FY2025 where net income fell.
Services and Other jumped 42% to $3.745 billion, with FSD subscriptions reaching 1.28 million, up 51%. Energy Generation and Storage, however, slipped 12% to $2.408 billion. Inventory days rose to 27 from 22, a subtle warning on demand.
SpaceX has no earnings filing to lean on, but its S-1 showed $18 billion in trailing revenue growing 33%. Two disclosed hyperscaler contracts already tell a bigger story: Anthropic paying $1.25 billion per month for Colossus capacity, and a $920 million per month Google deal for 110,000 GPUs through mid-2029. That pencils out, per the same source, to a projected $62 billion in 2026 revenue.
Physical AI vs. Orbital AI Lens Tesla SpaceX Core Bet Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus Launch monopoly, xAI compute, Starlink Near-Term Catalyst Q2 earnings report on July 22 Post-IPO institutional inflows Key Vulnerability Vehicle margin compression Extreme valuation multiple Tesla is pouring capital into Cybercab, Semi, Megapack 3, and Optimus lines targeting 10 million robots per year at Gigafactory Texas. Musk even wrote a $2 billion check into SpaceX equity and is co-building a chip fab with it. SpaceX, meanwhile, is quietly turning into a hyperscaler with rocket exhaust attached.
The July 22 Earnings Report Will Set the Tone Polymarket assigns a 94% probability that Tesla closes above $320 by month-end, but only 30.5% odds of clearing $400. The most likely July touch is $360 at 56.5%. I read that as traders bracing for margin scrutiny. SPCX, sitting at $162 with only 14 trading days of history, still has the IPO tailwind at its back.
Why I Lean SpaceX Into Month-End For July specifically, I lean SpaceX. Tesla is priced for a 389 P/E, and the Q2 call gives skeptics a live microphone on vehicle profit margin compression. SPCX has fresh flows, a monopoly narrative, and no earnings trap to trip over yet. Long-horizon believers in physical AI are watching TSLA at $393.45 after a 7.49% drop. For the next 20 trading days, I think SpaceX carries the momentum.
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Tesla is launching the Model Y L in the US almost a year after it debuted in China. Tesla Tesla has given fans an early Fourth of July surprise.
The EV giant announced on Thursday that it has opened US orders for the Model Y L, a three-row version of its best-selling SUV, with prices starting at $61,990.
The premium EV has been on sale in China since last August, and a question mark has been hovering over its arrival on American shores ever since.
At the time, CEO Elon Musk said the Y L "might not ever" come to the US because driverless vehicles would soon make traditional transportation obsolete.
Musk's ambitious predictions have yet to come to pass, however, with Tesla so far only scaling to a few dozen unsupervised robotaxis in a handful of Texan cities.
Take a look at the Model Y L, which will be available in the US starting in October.
The Model Y L has been a mega-sales hit in China.
The Model Y L is an extended version of Tesla's best-selling Model Y. Tesla Tesla launched the Model Y L in China last year as it battled a wave of competition from local EV brands.
The luxury SUV quickly proved a major hit, with local media reporting that Tesla sold more than 120,000 units in its first month on sale.
The premium EV comes with three rows of heated seats.
The interior of Tesla's Model Y L. Tesla The first two rows of the Model Y L feature heated and ventilated seats, as well as touchscreens, while the third row offers power reclining and one-touch folding to quickly stow the seats.
The Model Y L has over 300 miles of range.
Model Y L deliveries are set to begin in October. Tesla Tesla says the Model Y L has 325 miles of range, compared to 321 miles for the base-level Model Y and 306 miles for the $57,490 Model Y Performance.
The 'Launch series' comes with a year of free supercharging and FSD.
Like all Teslas, the Model Y L comes with an AI assistant powered by SpaceX's Grok model. Tesla Model Y L deliveries are set to begin in October with a limited-edition run of "Launch Series" vehicles. These will come with special badging and luxury interior touches, as well as 12 months of free supercharging and Tesla's Full-Self Driving tech.
It's proof that Tesla isn't backing away from EVs completely.
The Y L comes with a reverse charging feature that allows owners to use the battery to power phones, fridges, and other appliances. Tesla The Model Y L launch will help fill the hole in Tesla's product lineup left by the Model S and X, which were discontinued earlier this year to free up factory space to build the company's Optimus humanoid robot.
It's also evidence that despite Musk's efforts to pivot the company toward AI and robotics, boosting EV sales still remains a key part of the master plan.
Tesla reported Thursday that it sold over 480,000 EVs in the second quarter, smashing Wall Street's expectations, but research firm Cox Automotive estimated that the brand's US sales fell 20% year-over-year in that period. The Model Y L could be key in turning that slump around.
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Ilika PLC (AIM:IKA, OTCQX:ILIKF, FRA:I8A), the AIM-listed developer of solid-state battery technology, received a broker endorsement after raising £4.5 million through an accelerated bookbuild at 28p a share, alongside a retail offer of up to £500,000 at the same price.
Solid-state batteries replace the flammable liquid electrolyte in conventional lithium-ion cells with a solid material, promising faster charging, greater safety and longer life.
Cavendish analyst Ian McInally described the raise, which represents just under 10% of Ilika's market value, as broadly in line with the £5 million fundraising the broker had already assumed in its forecasts.
Up to £2 million of the proceeds will support Ilika's small-format Stereax battery, which is designed to power implantable medical devices.
That funding will back product optimisation with Cirtec Medical, the US manufacturer producing Stereax under a 10-year licence, and testing of the M300 battery to enable sales and trigger initial royalty payments.
Up to £3 million will advance the larger Goliath battery from final technical specification towards licensing, including the delivery of a 10 ampere-hour product aimed at non-automotive markets.
Ilika initially targeted Goliath at electric vehicles, but has shifted its near-term focus to defence and consumer applications, where commercialisation could come more quickly.
The company received encouraging feedback from a UK defence agency in March on safety tests of its 10 ampere-hour cells under battlefield conditions, and in April agreed a joint development programme with Brompton to incorporate the cells into the bicycle maker's e-bikes.
Cavendish said Goliath commercialisation was progressing with a pipeline of evaluation agreements across 27 companies.
Ilika keeps its 'buy' rating, but the broker has trimmed back its price target to 118p.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) shares have staged a sharp rebound heading into the Q2 delivery release, and my proprietary model now pegs the stock right on top of fair value. Tesla closed at $425.30 on July 1, 2026, after a 13.25% rally over the past week.
My 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $436.34, implying 2.6% upside over the next 12 months. That is a hold, and my confidence is high.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $425.30 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $436.34 Upside 2.6% Recommendation HOLD Confidence Level 90% A Rebound Into a Soft Delivery Report Tesla is down 5.43% year to date but up 41.43% over the past year, and shares sit 16% below the 52-week high of $498.83.
Bloomberg estimated Q2 deliveries at 396,466 units, up roughly 3% year over year, while BYD delivered 557,090 battery EVs in the same window. Regional data is bifurcated: Spain sales climbed 5.6% in June while Norway registrations fell 43%. Q1 was the offset, with revenue of $22.39 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, and automotive gross margin expanding to 21.1% from 16.2%.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead The bull thesis rests on optionality that traditional multiples cannot capture. Cybercab entered pilot production at Gigafactory Texas, unsupervised Robotaxi rides launched in Dallas and Houston in April, and FSD active subscriptions grew 51% to 1.28 million.
Elon Musk this week confirmed the Fremont Model S/X line is being repurposed for Optimus, with 40 production lines planned targeting one million robots.
My bull-case scenario points to $491.33 in 12 months, a 15.53% return, and Polymarket traders assign an 83.5% probability that TSLA touches $435 in July.
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The Risks Worth Watching Valuation is the tightest constraint. The trailing P/E of 390 and forward P/E of 213 leave little margin for delivery disappointment, and Michael Burry disclosed a fresh short at $416.22. Energy storage revenue fell 12% year over year in Q1, opex grew 37%, and BYD is now out-shipping Tesla in pure EVs.
Bulls would counter that the opex surge reflects AI R&D and the CEO comp award, both of which should convert to Optimus and Robotaxi revenue in later years. My bear-case scenario sits at $378.53, or a -11% return.
Hold Into Deliveries, Reassess After My 24/7 Wall St. price target of $436.34 reflects a stock that has already run into fair value on automotive fundamentals, with AI and robotics optionality tempered by execution risk and multiple compression. Confidence is high at 90%.
I would get more constructive if Q2 deliveries surprise above the Polymarket 475,000 threshold or Optimus hits a firm production milestone. I would stay cautious if regulatory credits keep sliding and Robotaxi expansion slips past 1H 2026.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Tesla could trade, extending the base-case trajectory from our five-year scenario.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $436 2027 $455 2028 $475 2029 $495 2030 $515 These projections assume Tesla executes on Cybercab, Optimus, and FSD monetization while defending automotive margin. Meaningful upside or downside could result from Robotaxi network economics, China FSD approval, or a sharper EV price war with BYD.
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Key Takeaways Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, topping estimates and rising 25% year over year.Overseas demand helped offset softer U.S. sales, with Europe and China showing stronger momentum.Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage, beating forecasts on Megapack and Powerwall demand. Electric vehicle (EV) and tech giant Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has reported strong second-quarter 2026 vehicle deliveries. It delivered 480,126 vehicles (comprising 467,762 units of Model 3/Y and 12,364 Other models), comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 402,456 units. Deliveries increased 34% sequentially and 25% on a year-over-year basis.
This marks Tesla's strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. Back then, sales got a similar lift when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired, prompting Tesla and other automakers to see a temporary surge in demand.
After witnessing a year-over-year fall in annual deliveries in 2024 and 2025, demand for Tesla vehicles seems to be stabilizing, as deliveries improved in both the first and second quarters.
Tesla Overseas Vehicle Delivery StrengthSecond-quarter deliveries were largely driven by high gas prices amid the Middle East conflict, which likely pushed consumers toward EVs. Demand trends have strengthened across key international markets. Although Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, Europe was a key catalyst, where sales momentum has been robust in recent months. France reported its best May on record, with registrations soaring more than 655%. Strong gains were also seen in Norway, Spain, Denmark, Portugal and Sweden.
In China, where Tesla commands a huge presence, deliveries rebounded strongly in May. Per the data from the China Passenger Car Association, as cited in Teslarati, Tesla sold 47,281 vehicles at retail in China last month, representing a 22.5% increase from the same month last year. The figure also marked a sharp 82.2% jump from April. With that, the company snapped a two-month run of year-over-year sales declines while also maintaining robust export volumes from its Shanghai manufacturing facility. Despite softer U.S. demand, robust international performance helped offset the weakness.
Competitive Check: Lucid & Rivian Q2 DeliveriesRivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) and Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) also reported second-quarter deliveries yesterday, with contrasting results. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, topping estimates and its own prior guidance, driven by strong demand for its R1 lineup and electric delivery van. The company raised its full-year 2026 delivery outlook to 65,000-70,000 units. Lucid, meanwhile, fell short of expectations, delivering just 3,953 vehicles. The miss came amid new CEO Silvio Napoli’s, who took over in June, restructuring of Lucid's leadership team in an effort to simplify operations and streamline reporting lines.
TSLA Q2 Energy Deployments Top MarkTesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter,reflecting an uptick of 53% and 40% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The number also came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11.8 GWh. The outperformance was driven by robust demand for Megapack and Powerwall. To support rising demand, the company is expanding production capacity through a new Megapack factory near Houston and plans to launch its next-generation Megapack 3 system later this year.
All Eyes on Tesla's Q2 Earnings Release on July 22The focus now shifts to Tesla's second-quarter earnings report, where delivery strength will need to translate into financial performance. A key metric for investors will be auto sales margins, which have started to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for automotive margins for the second quarter is pegged at 20.5%. That implies an improvement of 330 basis points from the year-ago period.
Beyond the core numbers, industry watchers and investors will closely watch for updates on Optimus humanoid robot program and progress on full self-driving technology. Commentary on these fronts will be key as Tesla has repositioned itself as a multi-layered tech company. Its narrative and valuation are now heavily centered around artificial intelligence, robotaxis and humanoid robots like Optimus.
Tesla’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesTesla has underperformed the industry year to date.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Tesla appears significantly overvalued.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla’s EPS has been revised over the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TSLA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Ilika PLC (AIM:IKA, OTCQX:ILIKF, FRA:I8A), the UK developer of solid-state battery technology, has raised £4.56 million before expenses through an oversubscribed share placing and subscription.
Solid-state batteries replace the flammable liquid electrolyte found in conventional lithium-ion cells with a solid material, which promises greater safety, energy density and a longer lifespan.
The AIM-listed company issued 16.3 million new ordinary shares at 28 pence each, with Cavendish acting as bookrunner.
It plans to raise up to a further £500,000 through a retail offer to existing shareholders at the same price.
The net proceeds will fund the commercialisation of Ilika's two battery lines, the small-format Stereax and the large-format Goliath.
Up to £2 million will support the rollout and scaling of Stereax, which is designed for active implantable medical devices such as pacemakers and neurostimulators.
That work includes product optimisation with Cirtec Medical, a US medical device manufacturer, alongside testing and validation of the M300 battery to enable sales and trigger initial royalty payments.
Ilika described those royalties, which would be triggered by delivering M300 batteries into customer testing programmes, as a critical commercial milestone that would validate its licensing model.
Up to £3 million will support Goliath, the company's electric vehicle battery, as it moves from finalising technical specifications towards licensing.
That budget covers prototype and production optimisation, the purchase of battery formation equipment, test programmes and delivery of a 10 ampere-hour minimum viable product.
Ilika expects that product to generate initial revenues from Goliath in markets including defence and consumer electronics, ahead of wider commercialisation in electric vehicles.
The company is also progressing discussions with electric vehicle manufacturers over a 10 ampere-hour cell, which alongside earlier development work opens up options to license the technology in the automotive market.
The company said the Goliath roadmap had reached an intersection point with what it called the urgent sovereign needs of the defence sector.
Graeme Purdy, chief executive, thanked new and existing investors and said the money would help optimise Goliath prototypes and fund equipment for the company's first Goliath product.
Ilika held cash and cash equivalents of £5.3 million as at 30 April, and said the fundraising would provide working capital to reach several technical and commercial milestones.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a 25% jump on a year earlier and a decisive beat against a consensus of roughly 406,000. On any conventional reading, it was the rebound the company badly needed after a bruising start to the year. The stock fell about 7.5% anyway. Understanding why means looking past the headline to the three things investors actually care about.
The number beat, but the reason for the beat is the problem
Part of the surge was not new demand. It was Tesla clearing a backlog. In the first quarter, the company built 50,363 more cars than it sold, stacking up inventory as US demand cooled after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired. A chunk of the second-quarter total is that stockpile finally moving off the lot.
Selling inventory is not the same as selling growth. If Tesla shifted those cars using discounts, cheap financing or other incentives, the volume comes at the expense of margin. That distinction is the whole story, and investors will not learn the answer until the company reports full financial results on 22 July.
This is now a pattern, not a surprise
The reaction fits a habit. Tesla shares have fallen on each of the past three quarterly delivery reports, a classic sell-the-news response where a strong print is already priced in before it lands. The stock walked into Thursday around $425, up roughly 24% from its April low, which told you the market had positioned for a beat.
When expectations are set that high, clearing them is not enough. A beat has to be large enough and clean enough to justify a rally, and a beat built partly on inventory liquidation does not clear that second test.
Bar was set low, and Tesla set it
There is a structural reason the beat looks bigger than it is. Tesla compiles and publishes its own consensus on its investor relations page, aggregating sell-side estimates into the number it will be measured against. That creates an obvious incentive for the bar to sit at a level the company can comfortably clear.
Even so, Tesla missed its own Q1 consensus. And the full-year picture remains flat. Analysts model roughly 1.65 million deliveries for all of 2026, barely 1% growth on last year, and that figure has already been trimmed by about 35,000 units since March. A company once growing at 50% a year is now modelled for essentially no growth, and one quarterly beat does not rewrite that.
A $1.4 trillion valuation the cars cannot explain
Here is the deeper reason a delivery beat moves the stock less than it once would. At a market value near $1.4 trillion, the vehicle business accounts for only a fraction of the price. The rest is the robotaxi and humanoid robot story, and no delivery print can validate or disprove that. The report that matters for the narrative is 22 July, when Tesla updates on margins, cash flow and its autonomy program.
The energy business offered a genuine bright spot that tends to get overlooked. Storage deployments hit 13.5 gigawatt hours against 9.6 a year earlier, topping expectations. That segment carries roughly double the gross margin of the car business, so it punches above its weight in profit terms. It was not enough to offset the caution around vehicles.
Questions the report left unanswered
One detail investors flagged is what Tesla did not say. SpaceX, which owns xAI, bought $269 million of Tesla Megapacks in April to cut power costs at its data centres, and last year spent $131 million on Cybertrucks. Tesla did not disclose whether such related-party transactions flattered the quarter's numbers.
The underlying demand picture is also lopsided. Europe rebounded, helped by higher fuel prices and easing of the backlash tied to Elon Musk's politics, with registrations more than doubling in France in June. US sales, by contrast, tracked down around 15% to 20% as buyers leaned toward hybrids and Chinese rivals such as BYD, Nio and Xiaomi kept up the pressure. A recovery leaning this heavily on one region is exactly the kind of beat the market treats with suspicion.
Autonomous driving has been a hot topic for stock market investors for several years. As more cities approve driverless vehicles, what was once science fiction is rapidly becoming reality. Naturally, investors want in on what could be an important industry.
An obvious choice for investment dollars is Tesla (TSLA 7.35%), which has been making progress toward full self-driving for years. However, there's another well-known company that could be the better bet for making autonomous driving a mass-adopted reality.
Waymo is way ahead While it may not be the first company investors think about when it comes to autonomous driving, Alphabet (GOOGL 0.23%)(GOOG 0.37%) is actually the leader in this space. According to Alphabet's Q1 2026 earnings call, Waymo surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous, driverless rides per week, a number that has doubled in less than a year. Waymo is also operating in 11 major cities, with six new cities added in 2026 alone.
Compare this with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD), which is still not operating without human drivers in the vehicles. According to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, driverless autonomy is expected to roll out in the fourth quarter of this year.
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Autonomy with a side of AI While Tesla offers more to investors than autonomous driving, Alphabet is a leader in what is perhaps the most transformative technology of our lifetimes, artificial intelligence (AI). With its frontier large language model (LLM), Gemini, Alphabet also offers investors exposure to the leading edge of the AI revolution.
AI is progressing too rapidly to predict a winner, but Google's Gemini, Anthropic's Claude, and OpenAI's ChatGPT will be jockeying for position for the foreseeable future as each company releases more advanced models.
But that's not all It would take too long to list all the other aspects of Alphabet's business, but while autonomous driving and AI drive the headlines, it's important to remember that advertising (on Google Search and YouTube, primarily) and Google Cloud Services provide the bulk of the revenue and profit that allow Alphabet to invest in new technologies.
In Q1 of 2026, advertising represented 70% of revenue, while Google Cloud accounted for another 18%. Alphabet is the leader in search on both Google and YouTube, and it's one of the top cloud infrastructure providers in the world.
Mega-cap value Considering Alphabet's leadership position in so many aspects of our tech economy, one might think shares are prohibitively expensive, but that's not the case. Alphabet stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 30, which is right around its 10-year average and 16% below its late-2025 high.
One can be fairly confident that Alphabet will present cheaper and more expensive buying opportunities over time, but adding shares or starting a position at today's valuation seems reasonable when compared to the company's historical averages.
As Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock attempts to regain a macro uptrend, several Wall Street analysts have reiterated their bullish outlook for the coming 12 months.
On Thursday, July 2, five Wall Street analysts reiterated their bullish outlook on Tesla stock over the next 12 months. William Stein, an analyst at Truist Securities, raised his 12-month price target for Tesla stock from $400 to $430 but reiterated a ‘Hold’ rating.
Andrew Percoco, an analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), maintained a Hold rating for TSLA stock. Percoco set his 12-month price target for Tesla shares at $415.
Jed Dorsheimer, an analyst at William Blair, reiterated a Hold rating for the company but did not issue a 12-month price target. Rajat Gupta, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), maintained a Hold rating for Tesla stock and set a 12-month price target of $475.
Meanwhile, Tom Narayan, a Wall Street analyst at RBC Capital, maintained a Buy rating for TSLA shares. Narayan set his 12-month price target for Tesla stock at $475.
Why are Wall Street analysts bullish on Tesla stock? Wall Street analysts may be signaling bullish sentiment for Tesla shares after the company posted strong second-quarter results. On July 2, Tesla announced that it produced 451,758 vehicles and delivered 480,126 units during the past three months.
Ahead of this month’s Tesla earnings call, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest purchased 96,935 TSLA shares. Wall Street analysts could also be betting on a bullish outlook for the company after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Model Y passed its safety rating.
Following the recent rating review of Tesla shares, the company’s stock had an average 12-month price target of $404.86, according to TipRanks.
TSLA stock price forecast. Source: TipRanks Amid the moderate Buy rating from Wall Street analysts, TSLA shares have dropped 10% year to date (YTD), trading at $393.45 at press time. As such, the company had a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion.
Tesla stock YTD chart. Source: Finbold With TSLA shares signaling a potential reversal since early April, the analyst’s forecast could be met in the near term.
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At a $1.3 trillion market capitalization, Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) is one of the most valuable businesses on Earth. During its ascent, the disruptive enterprise has taken its shareholders on a ride of massive returns.
If you'd invested $10,000 in this Magnificent Seven stock 10 years ago, here's how much you'd have today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Tesla shares have put up a marvelous trailing 10-year return of 2,920% (as of July 1). If you were able to buy $10,000 worth of the stock at the start of July 2016, you'd have $302,160 today. Among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, Nvidia is the only stock that performed better.
A decade ago, Tesla was essentially a newcomer in the automotive industry. In 2015, it sold almost 51,000 electric vehicles (EVs). By 2025, that figure had ballooned to over 1.6 million, driving monster automotive revenue growth of 1,778% during that stretch. No one will deny that this is now a globally recognized brand.
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However, Tesla's strategic focus has shifted. The next 10 years may look different for this tech company. Tesla, which still makes most of its money from EV sales, is dedicated to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics.
The market couldn't be more bullish. Tesla stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 376. Expectations are sky-high, with no room for error going forward. Investors shouldn't anticipate past returns to be repeated.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Po čtvrtečním zlepšení nálady na Wall Street pokračuje pozitivní sentiment také na evropských trzích. Podle analytika Patria Finance Tomáše Vlka investory podpořily především silné výkony jihokorejských výrobců paměťových čipů, které zmírnily obavy kolem technologického sektoru.
Článek se odemkne 03.07.2026 11:46
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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a 25% jump on a year earlier and a decisive beat against a consensus of roughly 406,000. On any conventional reading, it was the rebound the company badly needed after a bruising start to the year. The stock fell about 7.5% anyway. Understanding why means looking past the headline to the three things investors actually care about.
The number beat, but the reason for the beat is the problem
Part of the surge was not new demand. It was Tesla clearing a backlog. In the first quarter, the company built 50,363 more cars than it sold, stacking up inventory as US demand cooled after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired. A chunk of the second-quarter total is that stockpile finally moving off the lot.
Selling inventory is not the same as selling growth. If Tesla shifted those cars using discounts, cheap financing or other incentives, the volume comes at the expense of margin. That distinction is the whole story, and investors will not learn the answer until the company reports full financial results on 22 July.
This is now a pattern, not a surprise
The reaction fits a habit. Tesla shares have fallen on each of the past three quarterly delivery reports, a classic sell-the-news response where a strong print is already priced in before it lands. The stock walked into Thursday around $425, up roughly 24% from its April low, which told you the market had positioned for a beat.
When expectations are set that high, clearing them is not enough. A beat has to be large enough and clean enough to justify a rally, and a beat built partly on inventory liquidation does not clear that second test.
Bar was set low, and Tesla set it
There is a structural reason the beat looks bigger than it is. Tesla compiles and publishes its own consensus on its investor relations page, aggregating sell-side estimates into the number it will be measured against. That creates an obvious incentive for the bar to sit at a level the company can comfortably clear.
Even so, Tesla missed its own Q1 consensus. And the full-year picture remains flat. Analysts model roughly 1.65 million deliveries for all of 2026, barely 1% growth on last year, and that figure has already been trimmed by about 35,000 units since March. A company once growing at 50% a year is now modelled for essentially no growth, and one quarterly beat does not rewrite that.
A $1.4 trillion valuation the cars cannot explain
Here is the deeper reason a delivery beat moves the stock less than it once would. At a market value near $1.4 trillion, the vehicle business accounts for only a fraction of the price. The rest is the robotaxi and humanoid robot story, and no delivery print can validate or disprove that. The report that matters for the narrative is 22 July, when Tesla updates on margins, cash flow and its autonomy program.
The energy business offered a genuine bright spot that tends to get overlooked. Storage deployments hit 13.5 gigawatt hours against 9.6 a year earlier, topping expectations. That segment carries roughly double the gross margin of the car business, so it punches above its weight in profit terms. It was not enough to offset the caution around vehicles.
Questions the report left unanswered
One detail investors flagged is what Tesla did not say. SpaceX, which owns xAI, bought $269 million of Tesla Megapacks in April to cut power costs at its data centres, and last year spent $131 million on Cybertrucks. Tesla did not disclose whether such related-party transactions flattered the quarter's numbers.
The underlying demand picture is also lopsided. Europe rebounded, helped by higher fuel prices and easing of the backlash tied to Elon Musk's politics, with registrations more than doubling in France in June. US sales, by contrast, tracked down around 15% to 20% as buyers leaned toward hybrids and Chinese rivals such as BYD, Nio and Xiaomi kept up the pressure. A recovery leaning this heavily on one region is exactly the kind of beat the market treats with suspicion.
Tesla, Inc. beat Q2 delivery estimates with 480,000 vehicles, mainly Model 3 and Y, but shares slumped 8% post-report. TSLA's inventory drawdown supports cash flow amid $25B+ capital spending, yet cheap financing may pressure margins and profits. Despite solid delivery growth, TSLA trades at 190x forward earnings, making its valuation difficult to justify versus peers.
A display of a Tesla Model 3 using Full Self-Driving Supervised on a highway in San Diego, California, U.S., April 15, 2026. Picture taken with a long exposure. REUTERS/Mike Blake//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 2 (Reuters) - A Texas man has been charged with manslaughter after driving a Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab operating with its automated driving assistance system into a suburban Houston home, killing a 76-year-old grandmother, court papers show.
Michael David Butler, 44, told police he was operating his Model 3 in Full Self-Driving mode on June 19 when he plowed into Martha Avila's home in Katy, Texas, and told paramedics "the car was on 'Autopilot,'" according to court papers. Avila died later at a nearby hospital.
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According to an arrest affidavit, Butler said he was making a DoorDash delivery run when he changed the music on the Tesla's touch screen, and eventually "passed out."
His speed reached 73 miles per hour, more than double the legal limit, and the brake pedal wasn't used in the minute before the crash, the affidavit said. Butler denied having felt ill, and no alcohol or common street drugs were in his system, the affidavit said.
A lawyer for Butler did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Harris County prosecutors did not immediately respond to a similar request.
Tesla has disputed Butler's recollections, with Chief Executive Elon Musk saying a vehicle in Full Self-Driving mode "drives slowly through neighborhood streets" and a software vice president saying Butler manually overrode that mode by flooring the accelerator.
According to KHOU television, Butler appeared in probable cause court on Thursday where bail was set at $150,000, with requirements that he wear an ankle monitor and not drive.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has been investigating the crash, and has since 2016 opened nearly 50 special investigations of Tesla crashes believed to involve advanced driver assistance systems. About two dozen deaths were reported.
Tesla has said its Autopilot system enables vehicles to steer, accelerate and brake within their lanes, while Full Self-Driving lets vehicles obey traffic signals and change lanes. Both require "fully attentive" drivers, it has said.
Avila's family sued Tesla last week, saying her wrongful death reflected the electric vehicle maker's gross negligence and failure to warn that its self-driving systems were defective.
Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York and Diana Novak Jones in Chicago; Editing by Stephen Coates
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The electric vehicle (EV) maker reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year and up 34% from the first quarter.
This total came in ahead of a Street estimate of 406,000.
Munster shared on social media Thursday that the sell-off likely happened for three key reasons: buying on the rumor, high gas prices boosting demand, and the end of the Department of Government Efficiency headwind.
"The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one-time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number," Munster tweeted.
In a blog post, Munster expanded on the three reasons he gave for the share sell-off.
"Third-party data that suggested deliveries were up 20%, pushing the stock up 13% over the past five trading days."
High gas prices were evident for consumers in the second quarter, with a U.S. average price per gallon of $4.21, up 33% year-over-year. Munster said that may have pushed consumers to electric vehicles like Tesla. The investor questions how big of a tailwind this could have been with many seeing higher gas prices as a short-term item.
While Tesla CEO Elon Musk stepped away from his government work on DOGE in May 2025, the official end of the government effort could be a one-time positive catalyst for Tesla.
Munster said the delivery beat shouldn’t be discounted, as the Model S and Model X ended in the quarter. On a like-for-like basis, the growth rate would have been closer to 27%, the highest quarterly delivery growth rate on a year-over-year basis since September 2023.
What’s Next for TeslaThe strong quarterly figure is a positive for Tesla, with two favorable quarters in a row.
First-quarter deliveries were up 6% year-over-year, which came after the ending of the federal EV tax credit in September 2025.
"Now we have two quarters in a row of favorable delivery data, suggesting, in my book, that the EV winter is ending."
Munster highlights a third-quarter delivery estimate from the Street of year-over-year declines of 8%.
The investor said the strong deliveries also come as many investors and analysts are focusing more on items like the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are driving Tesla’s share price higher.
"I agree that’s the right focus, but deliveries still matter. More vehicles on the road mean more data, more FSD usage, more potential FSD customers, more Robotaxi supply, and overall more shots on goal in physical AI."
Price ActionTesla stock is down 7.9% to $391.55 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $288.77 to $498.82. Year-to-date, it’s down 10.7%.
Image via Shutterstock
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After two years of sagging vehicle sales, Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) is having a much better 2026. The electric vehicle company posted record second-quarter sales numbers on Thursday, with vehicle deliveries jumping 25% from a year ago.
Thursday’s sales report topped analysts’ expectations and may help the company build momentum ahead of its second-quarter earnings report on July 22. Let’s look at three takeaways that investors should be considering as they parse Tesla’s quarterly production and delivery report and look ahead to quarterly earnings.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Takeaway No. 1: Tesla’s turnaroundFirst, let’s look at Tesla’s deliveries and production. Deliveries were 480,126, or nearly 30,000 more than Tesla produced. That means Tesla sold more than it did a year ago, and also thinned out its inventory. Both of those are positive developments.
Metric Q2 2026 Q2 2025 % Change Production 451,758 410,244 10.1% Deliveries 480,126 383,122 25.3% Source: Tesla
Tesla’s deliveries also beat the company-compiled consensus from sell-side analysts, who projected 406,024 deliveries.
It was the second positive deliveries report for Tesla this year. In the first quarter, Tesla’s production numbers were up 12% from a year ago, and deliveries increased 6.3%. And it’s even more significant considering that Tesla saw annual declines in automotive sales in both 2024 and 2025.
Tesla does not break down deliveries by individual model, although it said that the Model 3 and Model Y SUV accounted for 97% of the company’s sales.
Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, told Reuters that European sales bolstered Tesla’s sales numbers in the quarter. European customers can take advantage of government incentives and a growing focus by businesses on electrifying corporate fleets.
"I think the huge growth in Europe is the key driver for Tesla right now,” he said. “U.S. sales still appear to be down, albeit less than the broader U.S. EV decline, while China is seeing small growth.”
The China Passenger Car Association reported that Tesla’s sales in China increased 3.6% from May, totaling 85,982 units.
Tesla is also seeing faster easing of the consumer backlash against Tesla that resulted from CEO Elon Musk’s foray into politics. Musk took a central role in President Donald Trump’s campaign and headed the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He also was active in European politics, including his endorsement of the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
A Yale University report estimated that Musk’s political activities cost the automaker between 1 million and 1.26 million vehicle sales in the U.S. between October 2022 and April 2025.
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Takeaway No. 2: Analyst reactionTesla stock fell more than 7% in afternoon trading on Thursday, suggesting that many investors had anticipated Tesla’s Q2 performance and were selling on the news. However, some analysts still see the report as a source of renewed optimism. Truist analyst William Stein raised his price target on Tesla stock from $400 to $430, indicating nearly 10% upside.
Analysts at William Blair said the report shows that Tesla’s auto business “is here to stay,” attributing the beat to higher-than-expected sales in North America, Europe, and China. The company has not beaten estimates to this degree in a while, analysts told investors in a research note.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained his $415 price target, but noted that Tesla’s auto sales showed the company’s highest auto growth rate since the third quarter of 2023.
Analysts also noted that Tesla reported energy storage deployments totaling 13.5 gigawatt-hours, which were in line with estimates.
Takeaway No 3: Here’s what’s next for TeslaIt’s notable that Tesla’s stock actually fell on the positive report, suggesting that investors aren’t expecting anything dramatic from the company’s full quarterly report on July 22. When that report drops, investors will want to know if Tesla’s auto sales margins -- which tightened significantly last year -- have improved.
Tesla will also be pressed for updates on two major initiatives -- its Optimus robot line and improvements to full self-driving (FSD) technology. Tesla and Musk have ambitious plans to make Optimus robots available to the public late next year and eventually roll out FSD nationwide.
Finally, there is speculation that Tesla will one day merge with Space Exploration Technologies, the company Musk founded that went public last month. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has estimated an 80% chance that Tesla and SpaceX will merge within the next year.
Undoubtedly, Tesla will remain a closely followed stock and continue to make waves. But the major takeaway from today’s report is that Tesla’s automotive business is reclaiming its momentum after two challenging years.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) second-quarter delivery report landed well above what Wall Street’s bar. CNBC’s Phil LeBeau captured investor reaction in a single line, calling Q2 results “far better than the Street was expecting.”
Tesla’s 74,000-Vehicle Beat That Shocked Wall Street According to LeBeau’s report, the consensus delivery estimate heading into the report was 406,600 vehicles, meaning Tesla’s Q2 delivery of 480,162 vehicles topped Street expectations by roughly 74,000 vehicles.
Production also held up. Tesla built 451,758 vehicles in the quarter, while its energy storage business deployed 13.5 GWh, a segment LeBeau said “continues to accelerate.”
Why Tesla Fell 8.3% On The News Tesla shares closed at $425.30 on July 1, capping a 13.25% gain over the prior week as expectations built into the release. In Thursday trading after the news was reported, the stock fell 8.3% to $391.30, as investors digested broader market concerns alongside the report. Tesla is up 24% in the past year. Michael Burry recently disclosed a new short position, saying, “Happy it jumped back to this level,“ after entering at $416.22.
The Q2 volume figure sits between Tesla’s recent trough and peak. Q4 2025 deliveries came in at 418,227 units, down 16% YoY. Q3 2025 hit a record 497,099 units. And in the most recent report, Q1 2026, Tesla posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3481 estimate, with automotive gross margin expanding to 21.1% from 16.2% a year earlier.
What To Watch In Tesla’s Full Q2 Results On July 22 Tesla removed one of the biggest concerns heading into the quarter by delivering far more vehicles than Wall Street expected. The next question is whether those stronger deliveries translate into higher profitability.
When Tesla reports full second-quarter results on July 22, investors will be focused on automotive gross margins, regulatory credit revenue, operating income, and updates on Cybercab, Optimus, and Robotaxi. Those figures will determine whether this quarter marks a meaningful turning point for the stock.
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The logo of Tesla is seen on a Tesla car in Brussels, Belgium April 24, 2025. REUTERS/Yves Herman Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 2 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab on Thursday launched a six-seater long wheelbase version of its best-selling Model Y SUV in the U.S., aiming to boost sales of its electric vehicles after the removal of a key tax credit.
Prices of the launch version start from $61,990 in the U.S., according to Tesla's website.
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The EV maker said its Model Y with extended wheelbase is now also available in the United Arab Emirates, in a separate post on social media platform X.
Instead of launching new models, Tesla has been introducing different variants of the Model Y and its Model 3 compact sedan to stoke demand.
The company rolled out the longer version — called Model Y L — in China last year, which drove sales in the region despite stiff competition from BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab and other domestic automakers.
It later expanded the sale of the model to other Asia-Pacific markets. The three-row model, which offers 325 miles of range, is expected to help revive some demand in the U.S. after a slowdown due to the removal of a federal tax credit last year.
Tesla on Thursday posted record-setting second-quarter delivery numbers that smashed past Wall Street estimates, led by a rebound in Europe, feeding hopes that in 2026 the EV maker can end its two-year streak of annual declines.
Reporting by Jaspreet Singh in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Sahal Muhammed
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Phil LeBeau went on CNBC Thursday morning and delivered the kind of number that reorders a Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) week. “These are far better than the street was expecting for the second quarter. Tesla delivering almost 481,000 vehicles,” he said. For a company that spent the first half of 2026 fighting a narrative about EV demand cratering, this was the reversal.
Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles against a consensus estimate of 406,600. That is the beat everyone is talking about, and it is a big one. The stock, worth about $1.6 trillion going into the release, had been coasting on a 13.25% one-week run before today’s release landed.
The number that shocked wall street LeBeau summed the math up bluntly. “The consensus estimate going into today was 406.6 thousand vehicles. They beat it by 74,000 vehicles. So just a massive beat from Tesla for the second quarter.”
Context matters here. Q1 2026 deliveries came in at 358,023 units, which Jim Cramer had characterized as up about 6% year over year but well below expectations. Then Goldman Sachs walked its Q2 forecast up to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, and Polymarket traders sniffed something bigger, pricing the 475,000-plus bracket at 0.993 probability heading into today. The prediction market called it. Sell-side analysts stayed lower.
Q2 production was 451,758 vehicles, meaning Tesla shipped more cars than it built. That drew down the inventory that had ballooned to 27 days of supply at the end of Q1. That is the inverse of the problem Cramer flagged in April, when production was rising almost 13% year over year while deliveries lagged. Demand showed up.
It wasn’t just cars The other line in LeBeau’s report that deserves attention concerns the energy business. “They also deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage. That business continues to accelerate,” he said. That figure sits comfortably above the 12.5 GWh record set in Q3 2025 and near the 14.2 GWh Q4 2025 record. Megapack is quietly becoming the part of Tesla that behaves most like a real growth business, with Services and Other already growing 42% year over year in Q1.
The regional picture underneath the top-line number is uneven. China-made EV sales rose 24.4% year over year in June, the eighth straight month of growth. Spain sales climbed 5.6% in June and 29.8% for the first half. Norway registrations fell 43% year over year. Tesla can absorb Norway. It cannot absorb losing China, which is why the 24.4% number probably matters most inside Palo Alto.
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Meanwhile, BYD reported Q2 2026 battery-electric deliveries of 557,090 units and is on track to reclaim the global EV crown.
Tesla winning the estimate game while still trailing BYD in absolute volume is the shape of this market now.
What to watch next Deliveries are a volume metric. Margins are a profit metric. Those are different things, and the second one gets answered on July 22, after the close, when Tesla reports full Q2 financial results. That is when the market finds out whether the extra 74,000 cars came with pricing discipline or with incentives that compress automotive gross margin. See Tesla’s prior Q1 2026 exhibit on SEC.gov for the baseline.
Q1 was encouraging on that front. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2% year over year, and free cash flow ran $1.44 billion. If Tesla held that line while delivering 480,000 cars, the story writes itself. If margins slipped to move the metal, the beat gets recharacterized quickly.
One more thing to keep an eye on. Michael Burry disclosed a fresh short against Tesla at $416.22. The stock opened this morning down 2.89% despite the beat, which tells you the tape was already pricing in something close to this outcome. The analyst consensus target of $421.16 now looks stale. Watch the revisions. That is where the real repricing happens over the next two weeks.
For a regular investor, the takeaway is simple. Tesla just proved the demand skeptics wrong on volume. Whether it proved them wrong on profitability shows up July 22. Both answers are worth waiting for before writing the epitaph on either side of the trade.
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After several quarters of a struggling electric vehicle (EV) business, Tesla (TSLA 7.49%) finally delivered results that one would have expected the market to like.
The company reported over 480,000 EV deliveries in the second quarter of the year, up 25% year over year. The number also beat Wall Street consensus estimates of 406,000.
Despite the beat, Tesla stock closed the day down 7.5%.
This is not Tesla’s formal second-quarter earnings report, which will take place on July 22. Within a few days of the end of each quarter, Tesla provides investors with an update on production and deliveries.
Here’s why Tesla stock fell even after the strong results.
Image source: Tesla.
Other Factors are at playTesla’s stock had been on a strong run in the days leading up to the deliveries report, so it’s quite possible the market saw this coming in advance.
“… investors anticipated the beat,” Gary Black of The Future Fund wrote on X.
Tesla’s EV business has really struggled since the Trump administration took office. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill eliminated a $7,500 EV tax credit that incentivized the purchase of EVs.
However, it’s likely that part of the blowout delivery numbers had to do with the Iran war, which has driven the average price per gallon of gas to $3.83 (as of July 2), according to AAA.
This could have prompted people to take a second look at their transportation and decide that owning an EV is worth the upfront cost.
Tesla isn’t the only EV company that has seen a lift lately.
Rivian also reported deliveries today and raised its full-year EV guidance from 62,000 to 67,000 units to 65,000 to 70,000 units.
Another aspect of Tesla’s business that investors and analysts are watching is its energy storage products, including Megapacks, which store energy to provide grid stability, and Powerwall, compact home batteries that can store solar energy or grid-supplied energy.
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In the second quarter, Tesla’s energy products deployed 13.5 gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy storage products. That’s actually up significantly from the first quarter production of 8.8 GWh.
But some analysts still found this lacking, possibly because Tesla deployed 14.2 GWh in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“The pace of growth for Tesla’s energy storage business has tempered,” William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer stated in a research note Thursday, according to Barrons. “But our view of the demand environment has not changed; [Tesla] Megapacks continue to be critical to the AI data center and power buildout.”
The EV business no longer drives the stockWhile the EV business still makes up the bulk of Tesla’s revenue, it is no longer a major driver of the stock, as many Tesla followers know.
A rebound in the EV business won’t hurt Tesla, but it’s also not going to help it, given the current valuation of close to 190 times forward earnings.
The future of Tesla’s stock depends on robotaxis and humanoid robots, both of which are still in their early stages and do not yet materially affect the company’s financials.
My long-held belief is that the easy money has already been made in Tesla. Material appreciation from here depends on strong execution in robotaxis and humanoid robots, which I think will be easier said than done.
