The IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) may have been a record-breaking spectacle that captured the attention of investors worldwide, but it's been a roller-coaster ride ever since.
The stock is trading at around $135 per share as of this writing, a far cry from the $225 it commanded in its earliest trading days last month.
While SpaceX is still trying to find its footing in the public markets, Elon Musk's other mega company, Tesla (TSLA 2.47%), just posted its best sales quarter in years. So is Tesla a better buy in the second half of 2026? My prediction is that it is absolutely the better company for investors right now.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
It's all about valuation Valuation is the biggest reason Tesla is a better second-half buy for this year. SpaceX is newly public, and history tells us IPOs tend to underperform in their first three to five years. I don't believe SpaceX will buck that trend, and its nearly $2 trillion market cap leaves very little room for error.
Based on what is known about SpaceX's revenue, even trading below its IPO price, the stock is still about 100 times the company's sales. While Musk and his team have made strategic moves and acquisitions to close the gap, I don't believe it'll be enough to justify the price for several more years.
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Tesla, on the other hand, crushed second-quarter analysts' delivery expectations as well as its own, serving up more than 480,000 vehicles. This breakout quarter could be a sign of a turnaround for Tesla regarding both Musk's reputation and EV demand.
Tesla still faces plenty of headwinds. Many legacy automakers have scaled back or abandoned their EV initiatives as demand stalled in recent years. With the elimination of the federal tax incentive, the EV industry took a hard hit, but that could change as states add their own tax breaks for electric car buyers.
Tesla's forward P/E is still quite rich at 172 and is based more on autonomous driving technology than current car sales. Tesla also faces increasing competition in the space.
An energetic growth engine More importantly, Tesla has a growth catalyst outside of its cars and robotics divisions. Tesla Energy could be the real winner as data centers continue to pop up in the U.S. and beyond. The potential here is enormous and imminent. Tesla's Megapack is an integrated battery system that provides clean, reliable, and cost-effective energy storage to stabilize grids and prevent outages.
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As data centers receive backlash for their energy consumption, Tesla's solutions become even more relevant.
Regarding future opportunities and potential, I have to give SpaceX the edge here, as space is literally infinite. Still, I can't imagine buying the stock right now at its current price. Investors looking for Musk-related upside but with slightly less risk and a longer track record would do well to buy and hold Tesla right now.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) investors already know the headline numbers for the second quarter. The electric vehicle and energy company said earlier this month that it delivered 480,126 vehicles during the period, up about 25% year over year and more than it has delivered in any second quarter in its history. It also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products, up about 41% from the year-ago period.
What investors don't know yet is what those record deliveries did to Tesla's profitability. That answer arrives on Wednesday, July 22, when the company posts its second-quarter results after market close, followed by a live management webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
With the stock closing Wednesday at $394.46, down about 12% year to date, Tesla commands a market capitalization of about $1.5 trillion and trades at about 360 times earnings. Investors paying that kind of premium aren't buying delivery counts. They need evidence that Tesla can turn all this volume into profit.
That's why I think one line in next week's report matters more than any other: automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales.
Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.
A four-quarter streak Tesla's core profitability has quietly improved for a full year now. The company's automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 12.5% in the first quarter of 2025. It climbed to 15% in the second quarter, 15.4% in the third, 17.9% in the fourth, and 19.2% in the first quarter of 2026.
That's four consecutive quarters of expansion.
This metric is worth attention because it strips out regulatory credits, the emissions credits Tesla sells to other automakers. That revenue is nearly pure profit, but it says nothing about the economics of building cars. And its contribution is shrinking anyway -- credits added 3.7 percentage points to Tesla's automotive gross margin in the first quarter of 2025, but just 1.9 points a year later.
However, there is a caveat in the streak. Tesla said its first-quarter results included one-time benefits related to warranty adjustments and tariffs, which helped both its automotive margin and its 4.2% operating margin.
So the July 22 report has to do two things at once. It has to show that the margin held up near 19% on record volume, and it has to show that Tesla managed this without one-time help.
If the margin excluding credits holds in the high teens, the bull case gets simpler. It would mean Tesla just posted its best second quarter of deliveries ever while preserving the pricing gains and cost work of the past year.
If the number steps back toward the mid-teens, the record quarter looks bought (volume achieved through discounts), and the profit story supporting a $1.5 trillion valuation arguably gets much harder to tell.
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What about robotaxi and energy? Plenty of investors will listen for other things on the call, and reasonably so.
Tesla's energy business deployed 13.5 GWh of storage in the quarter, its second-biggest quarter ever behind the 14.2 GWh it deployed in the fourth quarter of 2025. The segment carried a gross margin of nearly 40% in the first quarter, making it a meaningful profit contributor. Still, energy revenue actually declined 12% year over year in Q1, so deployments alone don't guarantee segment growth.
Then there's autonomy. Tesla ended the first quarter with 1.28 million active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions, up 51% year over year, and it launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April. A subscription base growing that fast is exactly the kind of high-margin revenue the valuation needs more of, so any update on robotaxi expansion or software take rates could move the stock, too.
But those initiatives are still mostly about 2027 and beyond. The margin line shows whether today's business, the one funding all of those bets, is getting more profitable or less as it scales. At 360 times earnings, Tesla doesn't have the luxury of letting profitability drift while investors wait for autonomy.
So when the report lands on July 22, the delivery recap won't be the news -- investors already have it. The number worth finding is the automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. If the streak extends to five quarters without one-time help, record deliveries and improving profitability would make a powerful combination. If it doesn't, investors may opt to treat the record quarter far less kindly.
The firm notes that Tesla has added Miami as its fifth robotaxi market and is scaling its Texas fleet at the fastest pace among operators it tracks. The combination matters because it shifts Tesla’s story from promise to visible expansion, even if the network is still early and uneven.
TSLA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Tesla Adds Robotaxi Markets and VehiclesTesla’s Texas fleet now stands at 175 vehicles, up by more than 100 in the past month, according to the note. That kind of growth gives Tesla a stronger case that its robotaxi effort is more than a demo. It is building an actual operating footprint.
Bank of America also points out that Tesla now has four additional markets in preparation, which suggests the company is still pushing toward the original goal of nine cities by the first half of 2026. Miami’s launch adds another proof point that Tesla wants to expand quickly while interest in autonomous driving remains high.
The robotaxi push is only one part of the bull case. Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries came in around 480,000, far above Street expectation. BofA also says the company likely gained global battery-electric vehicle share which helps offset worries that the core auto business is slowing.
The TakeawayBank of America kept its Buy rating and $460 price target on TSLA. The firm views Tesla as trying to turn autonomy into a real business while the EV business still supports the base case.
For now, the most important question is whether the company can keep adding markets, vehicles and usage fast enough to justify its robotaxi ambition.
TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla stock was down 2.32% at $381.98 at the time of publication Friday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Over the past month, TSLA has declined about 5.0% versus a 0.9% decline in the S&P 500 and is down roughly 17% year-to-date compared to the index’s 8.5% gain.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Agility Robotics is opening a 60,000-square-foot facility to train its humanoid robots in Fremont, California, just up the highway from the factory where Tesla is expected to start manufacturing its Optimus robots this year.
Tesla has increasingly bet on Optimus. Elon Musk recently said he expects it to be “the biggest product ever” once it’s “useful outside of Tesla sometime next year.”
While Agility doesn’t have Tesla’s capital, it does have a robot, Digit, that is already useful in the real world. The robot is already generating revenue, carrying totes and bins in manufacturing and warehouse settings for customers like Amazon, GXO, Schaeffler, and Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada. The company says it has secured $300 million in contract orders for its robots.
“It’s great to have [Tesla] in the same area as us, because really, for a long time Agility was out there alone, and it’s good to have others in the humanoid space,” CEO Peggy Johnson told TechCrunch. “We have commercialized. We now know what it takes to walk into these facilities and meet their safety bars, their regulatory bars, compliance, plug into their IT infrastructure, plug into their warehouse management system.”
Agility hasn’t disclosed how many Digits that it has built or deployed, but outside observers estimate that dozens have worked in pilot or revenue-generating deployments. The company has said, for example, that Digits have moved 100,000 totes at a GXO logistics facility.
Johnson is currently leading Agility through a reverse-merger that is expected to make it the first pure-play humanoid robot company on the public markets later this year. Founded in 2015 by a group of researchers who developed new techniques that allow robots to safely walk on two legs, Agility is trying to capitalize on its lead over a newer generation of AI-inspired robotic startups like Figure, 1X, the Bot Company, or Sunday Robotics.
While the arrival of transformer-based neural networks that helped give rise to LLMs also promises major advancements in robotic behavior, Agility is taking a practical approach to autonomy.
“When you think about self-driving cars, you know, as a non-humanoid example, you really don’t want the anti-lock brake controller under AI control,” Agility co-founder and chairman Damion Shelton told TechCrunch. “The analog with humanoids is all the safety stuff needs to go through a path that’s not generative AI, right? You don’t want to get creative with your safety stack.”
What AI does do, however, is deliver on the promise of scale.
“One of the first times [Bruce Leak, the Quicktime inventor who serves on Agility’s board] asked us how we were going to go about coding applications for the robot, we didn’t really have a good answer,” Shelton said. “The number of things you can imagine a robot doing is far larger than the number of engineers who can program robots. And generative AI answers that question definitively.”
The new facility is designed to accelerate the company’s robotic deployments. Johnson says more than 30 customers are in talks with the company about deploying Digit, and the new facility will be where the six-foot-tall robot learns new skills in environments similar to those it will experience in the field.
Unlike many of the newer entrants to the humanoid space, Agility isn’t planning to offer in-home humanoid robots anytime soon. It’s a view that jibes with that of most independent robotics experts, who believe today’s most powerful robots aren’t safe enough for consumer use. Digit operates in a human-free space right now, but the version 5, expected to be unveiled this fall, will have the ability to sense humans and won’t need to be kept in a robot-only zone.
Co-founder and chief robot officer Jonathan Hurst said there is plenty of work to keep Agility busy in manufacturing and logistics alone.
“Let’s start with the bins and the totes, and then let’s do the picking and the kitting,” Hurst told TechCrunch. “And then let’s like start working on cardboard, which is really hard, and loading and unloading tractor trailers and things like that. Okay, now we’re at 100 million robots, you know? A trillion-dollar company.”
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Tim Fernholz is a journalist who writes about technology, finance and public policy. He has closely covered the rise of the private space industry and is the author of Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and the New Space Race. Formerly, he was a senior reporter at Quartz, the global business news site, for more than a decade, and began his career as a political reporter in Washington, D.C. You can contact or verify outreach from Tim by emailing [email protected] or via an encrypted message to tim_fernholz.21 on Signal.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with robotaxis doing most of the talking.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and $460 price objective, pointing to the service's rapid expansion, a delivery number that blew past Wall Street estimates, and looming production milestones for the company's Optimus humanoid robot.
The bank said investor focus will center on the pace of robotaxi fleet scaling and new market launches. Tesla now operates in five markets following its July 3 launch in Miami, though its San Francisco service still requires a safety driver. Four additional markets are in preparation, compared with the company's original target of nine cities by the first half of 2026.
Tesla's Texas fleet has scaled quickly, adding more than 100 vehicles over the past month to reach 175, the fastest growth among the robotaxi operators Bank of America tracks. Safety data has remained compelling, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since the service's inception and no serious injuries or fatalities. A San Francisco pricing study the bank conducted in June found Tesla was 21% cheaper on average than Waymo, Uber and Lyft, though wait times ran three to four times higher, suggesting demand is outpacing supply.
On the core auto business, Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, above consensus estimates of about 406,000 and up 25% year-over-year. That compares with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15% year-over-year, suggesting Tesla gained roughly 95 basis points of BEV market share. U.S. share rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 46.1% in the quarter.
Bank of America also flagged upcoming updates on Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at Fremont for late July or August, around the same time as a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Giga Texas production expected around summer 2027. The bank expects a slow ramp but sees long-term opportunity, forecasting global humanoid shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.
Beyond Optimus, the bank expects focus on energy storage following Tesla's agreement with NatPower for 25 GWh using its Megapack system. Tesla remains the leading battery energy storage systems company in the U.S., an area now drawing entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.
Bank of America said Tesla is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomy capabilities, which it views as the most significant change agent in the shift toward autonomous, electric transportation.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) sits at the intersection of electric vehicles, autonomous driving, energy storage, and humanoid robotics, and the setup into 2027 is one of the most watched in the market. With shares changing hands at $397.92 and a model that just finalized the design of the AI5 inference processor alongside pilot production of Cybercab, the question retail investors keep asking is straightforward: what could a $10,000 stake actually be worth a year from now?
The Headline Answer Under the base-case model, a $10,000 investment in Tesla could be worth about $11,082 by 2027, a total return of 10.82%. That base case is anchored to a modeled 1-year share price target of $440.95, with a model confidence level of 90% and a BUY recommendation. Wall Street’s own consensus analyst target sits at $425.24, roughly in line with the base scenario.
Scenario Table: What $10,000 Could Become by 2027 Scenario Target Share Price Total Return Ending Value of $10,000 Bull (Optimistic) $493.69 24.07% $12,407 Base $440.95 10.82% $11,082 Bear (Conservative) $384.29 -3.42% $9,658 The spread is wide because Tesla’s beta is 1.802, meaningfully more volatile than the broader market. The current share price sits 15% below the 52-week high of $498.83, with the 52-week low at $297.82. Traders on Polymarket are also digesting this range in real time, with the crowd assigning a 64.5% probability that Tesla beats the next quarterly earnings print.
The Why: Three Drivers Behind the Target 1. Analyst consensus is skewed constructive. Of the covering analysts, 5 rate the stock Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 18 Hold, 4 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell. Bullish sentiment sits at 49% versus bearish at 13%. That mix supports the base case rather than the bull case, which is why the modeled target lands below the highest scenario.
2. Fundamentals are inflecting. Q1 FY2026 delivered a 14.14% EPS beat at $0.41, with revenue of $22.387 billion growing 15.78% year over year. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2% a year earlier, GAAP operating income rose 135.84%, and FSD active subscriptions climbed 51% to 1.28 million. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.444 billion.
3. The catalyst stack is heavy. Volume production of Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 is targeted for 2026, Optimus production lines are being installed at Fremont with a designed capacity of 1 million robots per year, and unsupervised Robotaxi rides launched in Dallas and Houston. FSD was approved in the Netherlands, opening a European regulatory path.
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For investors trying to size how AI compute and autonomy actually flow through to shareholder returns beyond just the chipmakers, this research on stocks powering the AI boom that aren’t chipmakers offers a useful framework for thinking about the second-order beneficiaries.
Risk: What Could Sink the Projection The bear case has real teeth. Vehicle deliveries grew just 6% year over year in Q1, global vehicle inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 22, and energy generation and storage revenue fell 12% year over year. Operating expenses grew 37% YoY on AI R&D and CEO stock-based compensation. Battery pack capacity remains a physical constraint on vehicle ramp, FSD approvals in China are still pending, and tariff exposure is a moving target. The stock also trades at a trailing P/E of 357, leaving little room for execution slippage.
Long-Term Context Zoomed out, the model’s 5-year base case points to $575.69 per share, a 44.68% total return, with a bull path to $685.30 (72.22%) and a bear path of just 7.21%. Investors weighing a 2027 entry are effectively deciding whether to underwrite the year in which Optimus, Cybercab, and Robotaxi transition from pilots into revenue.
The Bottom Line For a $10,000 stake, the modeled range by 2027 runs from about $9,658 in the bear case to $11,082 in the base case and $12,407 in the bull case, anchored to a base 1-year target of $440.95 and confidence of 90%. That is a scenario framework, not a promise. Analyst targets and model outputs are projections, not guarantees, and nothing here is personalized investment advice. Tesla’s next twelve months will be decided by execution on autonomy and robotics, and the dollar outcome for your stake will follow.
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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with robotaxis doing most of the talking.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and $460 price objective, pointing to the service's rapid expansion, a delivery number that blew past Wall Street estimates, and looming production milestones for the company's Optimus humanoid robot.
The bank said investor focus will center on the pace of robotaxi fleet scaling and new market launches. Tesla now operates in five markets following its July 3 launch in Miami, though its San Francisco service still requires a safety driver. Four additional markets are in preparation, compared with the company's original target of nine cities by the first half of 2026.
Tesla's Texas fleet has scaled quickly, adding more than 100 vehicles over the past month to reach 175, the fastest growth among the robotaxi operators Bank of America tracks. Safety data has remained compelling, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since the service's inception and no serious injuries or fatalities. A San Francisco pricing study the bank conducted in June found Tesla was 21% cheaper on average than Waymo, Uber and Lyft, though wait times ran three to four times higher, suggesting demand is outpacing supply.
On the core auto business, Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, above consensus estimates of about 406,000 and up 25% year-over-year. That compares with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15% year-over-year, suggesting Tesla gained roughly 95 basis points of BEV market share. U.S. share rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 46.1% in the quarter.
Bank of America also flagged upcoming updates on Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at Fremont for late July or August, around the same time as a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Giga Texas production expected around summer 2027. The bank expects a slow ramp but sees long-term opportunity, forecasting global humanoid shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.
Beyond Optimus, the bank expects focus on energy storage following Tesla's agreement with NatPower for 25 GWh using its Megapack system. Tesla remains the leading battery energy storage systems company in the U.S., an area now drawing entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.
Bank of America said Tesla is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomy capabilities, which it views as the most significant change agent in the shift toward autonomous, electric transportation.
Second-quarter earnings season is ramping up with the third week of July slated to bring some high-profile reports, including one from Elon Musk’s Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). The electric vehicle giant is scheduled to deliver its latest batch of quarterly results on Wednesday, July 22, after the close of U.S. markets.
Earnings reports are often opportune times for short-term traders to consider inverse and leveraged ETFs. When it comes to Tesla, the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL) and the Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares (TSLS) are the funds to evaluate. TSLL attempts to deliver 200% of the daily performance of the widely followed automotive stock. Conversely, TSLS targets the daily inverse performance of Tesla shares, offering a tactical tool for bearish traders.
With solid second-quarter deliveries already priced into Tesla stock, traders are looking ahead to other catalysts, such as free cash flow.
“We will pay close attention to Tesla’s free cash flow metrics as the company begins a heavy capital expenditure investment cycle to build the infrastructure required for its real-world artificial intelligence products,” noted Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein.
More Catalysts to Consider Other variables that could jolt either TSLL or TSLS — assuming they’re included in Tesla’s post-earnings commentary — are robotaxi rollouts and updates on the Optimus robotics endeavor.
“We will also be watching for an update on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout plans. We will look to hear management’s expansion plans, as well as an update on the robotaxi-dedicated Cybercab, which entered production,” said Goldstein.
Optimus is one subject that legitimately has the potential to put either TSLL or TSLS into play. Investor interest in humanoid robotics is surging, especially now as China accelerates its robot production beyond previous expectations.
“We view the project as a large long-term growth driver for Tesla, as it could eventually perform many tasks and be purchased by both businesses and consumers,” observed Goldstein.
Comments on profit margins and updates on cheaper Tesla models could also spark big moves in TSLL and TSLS post-earnings.
“As Tesla ramps up production of its new, lower-priced Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, we expect automotive gross margins, excluding credits, to be in the high teens, slightly below management’s long-term goal of 20%,” concluded Goldstein. “In the long term, we assume Tesla will deliver around 2.8 million vehicles per year by 2030, driven by the adoption of full self-driving software and the more affordable versions of the Model Y and Model 3.”
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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight as earnings, analyst activity and interesting technicals converge.
Tesla stock is showing weakness. Why is TSLA stock retreating? Earnings History & What To ExpectTesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 22. Tesla is expected to post earnings per share of 44 cents and revenue of $25.24 billion. In the most recent quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.41, beating estimates of $0.30 by 0.37%. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, exceeding the estimate of $22.17 billion by 0.01%.
Over the last 4 quarters, Tesla has averaged an EPS surprise of 0.19% and a revenue surprise of 0.02%.
Investors should watch automotive gross margin excluding credits, along with operating margin, for evidence that revenue growth is translating into real operating leverage — recent earnings beats have leaned more on profitability improvements than outsized revenue surprises.
FSD and software-related revenue signals, including deferred revenue movement, services growth, and any commentary on take-rate, will also be closely watched, since much of Tesla’s valuation still hinges on a broader software ramp. Delivery volumes and pricing commentary should also offer clues on demand elasticity, since volume growth without pricing power could keep EPS capped even if revenue reaches the $25.24 billion target.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $405.70. Notable recent moves include:
Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $415.00 to $417.00) (July 14) Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $360.00 to $370.00) (July 14) Wells Fargo: Underweight (Raised Target from $125.00 to $130.00) (July 14) A Bearish Tilt, But Not A BreakdownTesla is trading below all of its major trend gauges, sitting 3.6% under the 20-day SMA ($398.63), 6.2% below the 50-day SMA ($409.97), and 7.9% below the 200-day SMA ($417.36). That alignment keeps the intermediate trend tilted bearish, especially with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the death cross (50-day below 200-day) that formed in April still in place.
Momentum is best framed through RSI, which is at 46.28—neutral, but leaning soft and consistent with a market that’s not showing strong upside pressure. RSI measures how "stretched" a move is, and a mid-40s reading typically signals choppy, two-sided trade rather than a clean trend day.
Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number area that can act as an overhead pivot where rebounds may stall Key Support: $380.00 — a nearby round-number level close to current trade where buyers may try to defend the pullback From a longer-term perspective, the stock is still up 22.43% over the past 12 months, but the more recent structure has been weaker after a swing low in April and a swing high in May. Traders will be watching whether price can hold the $380.00 area; losing it cleanly would keep the focus on downside follow-through, while reclaiming the 20-day/100-day area would be an early sign the tape is stabilizing.
Tesla Shares Edge LowerTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 1.63% lower at $384.68, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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You can buy Tesla (TSLA 2.29%) stock now, in the next trading session, or after quarterly earnings results are released on Wednesday, July 22. The main difference comes down to whether you think there's likely to be a catalyst in the results or presentations that could drive the stock higher after the results are announced.
Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries are growing again Tesla releases its delivery numbers at the start of each quarter, and as investors already know, it blew past expectations with 480,126 electric vehicle (EV) deliveries. Automotive revenue still makes up roughly three-quarters of Tesla's revenue, and based on historical numbers, Tesla's average revenue per unit (ARPU) for EVs is likely in the $42,000 to $43,000 range. Therefore, automotive revenue will probably be in the $20.1 billion to $20.7 billion range.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The midpoint of the range implies a 22% increase on the $16.67 billion reported in the same quarter of 2025. Whichever way you look at it, Tesla is growing its EV deliveries again, which helps confirm that the slowdown in the first half of 2025 really did come down to the Model Y refresh.
What investors need to look out for That said, the key to the investment case is Tesla's future stream of recurring income from full self-driving (FSD) software, Optimus robot-as-a-service revenue, and robotaxi revenue from its own fleet or a third-party robotaxi platform fee.
Consequently, every earnings presentation and earnings call is usually viewed as a kind of report card on the long-term development of Robotaxi and Optimus, in the context of publicly available developments in the quarter. Based on Tesla's last earnings call, it's hard to see the company saying anything revolutionary during the upcoming one.
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Optimus and robotaxi On Optimus, CEO Elon Musk said low-volume production would begin in the "late July/August" time frame, with the unveiling event taking place around then. Clearly, there's potential for Tesla to make a splash by announcing this, but it would merely confirm what management has already said.
Turning to robotaxis, while it's exciting to monitor the rollout, the reality is that an increase of a few robotaxis here or there, or an additional city (Miami was added in July), won't make a marginal difference to what really matters.
On the last earnings call, Musk said:
"It's not going to make sense for us to deploy unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety."
Those improvements will come with the release of v15 FSD, which will be a "complete overhaul of the software architecture" and will take safety to "another level." He also noted that v15 would "hopefully" be available this year, "but certainly by early next year."
Image source: The White House.
What to expect from Tesla's earnings presentations We pretty much know the key numbers based on the delivery data. On Optimus, confirmation of production starting/growing and an unveiling announcement would be good. However, the key question is the timeline for v15 development, because there won't be a robotaxi ramp without it.
All told, while Tesla remains an attractive stock for long-term investors, it's hard to see the company making any game-changing announcements on Optimus or robotaxi/v15 during the upcoming earnings presentations. In other words, if you like the stock, there's no need to rush to buy it before the earnings report.
Major tech companies are under pressure in early Friday pre-market trading.
TSLA Technical Analysis
The Tesla daily chart shows price sliding toward the $383 support region after a year of sideways action. Source: TradingView. Tesla looks like it’s going to gap to the downside at the open on Friday as we continue to see risk appetite a little bit threatened by the conflict in the Middle East. And of course, we are approaching earnings season, so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Tesla has earnings next Wednesday and now finds itself threatening the $383 region, an area that’s been important multiple times in the past. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any type of pushback here from the buyers. All things being equal, the market has been somewhat sideways for the better part of a year as we are just trying to figure out where to go next.
SPCX Technical Analysis
The SpaceX daily chart shows a steep, uninterrupted slide from its debut high, with no established support yet. Source: TradingView. SpaceX looks very weak early during the trading session on Friday, as we are looking at a gap lower to continue the bloodbath that has been a major factor here. The bottom cannot really be quantified yet because there is no historical price action. One thing is for certain: there are people out there who would love to own this company, but finding the right price is the catch. After all, it is an extraordinarily risky business, and we do not get an earnings call or any guidance until the 6th of August.
With that being said, this is one that is worth watching. It could be a generational investment; we just don’t know. Certainly, it’s a very exciting field, but as things stand right now, it looks like nobody’s willing to pay some of the original exorbitant prices, and as a result, it’s a matter of patience.
The Meta daily chart shows price pulling back from $690 resistance, with the 200-day EMA at $632 the next test. Source: TradingView. Meta looks like it’s going to gap lower at the open on Friday as traders continue to send this market back and forth. The 200-day EMA sits at $632. Meta has been pretty sideways for several months as well. Got a little stretched, looks like it’s giving some of that back.
There are concerns about the global economy and, of course, the tech trade in general. The earnings call is on the 29th, so we have a little bit of time between now and then to fill the gap. We would have to test that 200-day EMA. So who knows, that could be an area where people are willing to get involved. This is a market that continues to see a lot of resistance near $690, which is basically where we’re rolling back from this time as well.
If you’d like to know more about technical analysis and how traders use it, please visit our educational area.
Say what you will about Elon Musk, but he has never blinked on his Tesla vision.
Through years of skeptics declaring Tesla (TSLA 0.87%) was doomed, he kept promising a future of electric cars, self-driving fleets, and humanoid robots, and he kept plowing money back into those bets.
With the stock slipping below $400 and second-quarter earnings due July 22, some investors are wondering whether this dip is the moment to buy into that conviction.
Image source: The White House.
The founder-led lens There is a reason founder-led companies command loyalty, and Tesla is the textbook case. Musk holds an enormous personal stake and has worked to increase his voting control, which means his fortune rises and falls with the same shares ordinary investors own.
Rather than harvesting profits, he keeps funneling them into ambitious projects: the robotaxi rollout, the Dojo supercomputer, the Optimus robot, and the energy business. To believers, that relentless reinvestment amid constant criticism is the whole point.
It signals an owner playing a decade-long game while Wall Street frets over the next quarter. Founders who refuse to sell their vision have, more than once, been proven right long after the doubters moved on.
The July 22 reality check That is the romantic case. The sober one is that Tesla's most recent quarter showed the tension clearly. Deliveries actually beat expectations, yet the stock fell as investors focused on shrinking margins, softening sales in North America, and the heavy spending required to chase all those moonshots.
The stock still trades at a valuation that assumes the autonomous future arrives more or less on schedule, and Musk's timelines have a long history of slipping. Buying specifically to front-run one earnings report is less an investment than a coin flip, because a single print can swing hard in either direction.
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The takeaway for investors So should you buy the dip before July 22? I would gently separate the two questions tangled up in that headline.
Believing in Musk's founder-led vision is a legitimate, decade-long call, and plenty of investors are comfortable backing a leader who has never wavered. But timing a purchase to a specific earnings date is a different, riskier game, and Tesla's lofty valuation leaves little cushion if the report disappoints.
If you are putting hard-earned savings to work here, the better question is not "before or after July 22," but whether you are willing to own an expensive stock through years of volatility on the strength of a vision that is still unproven. Decide that first, and the earnings date matters a lot less.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) extended its decline heading into Friday as investors questioned whether SpaceX could realistically finance a takeover of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company.
Tesla fell 0.9% to $391.06 on Thursday, while SpaceX slid 3.1% to $131.11, below its $135 IPO price.
The parallel weakness matters because any acquisition would probably rely heavily on SpaceX stock.
As that currency loses value, the rocket company would need to issue more shares, increasing dilution and making an already complicated transaction harder to justify.
Tesla was valued at about $1.4 trillion on Thursday, while SpaceX’s retreat from its post-IPO peak has reduced the purchasing power of its equity.
An all-stock acquisition would require SpaceX to create and distribute a substantial block of new shares to Tesla investors.
Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, estimated that such a deal could dilute existing SpaceX holders by roughly 25%.
“At $132 and sinking, SPCX can’t just buy TSLA in a 25% dilutive equity deal,” Black wrote on X.
Those who think $SPCX will buy $TSLA don’t understand the concept of board fiduciary duty. Sure, Elon owns 82% of the SPCX voting control (and 42% of overall SPCX equity) but that doesn’t magically let the SPCX board off the fiduciary hook. At $132 and sinking, SPCX can’t just…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 16, 2026 Dilution does not mean investors immediately lose one-quarter of their money. It means their ownership would be spread across a much larger share count.
The combined company would therefore need to generate enough additional earnings or strategic value to compensate them.
Black has separately warned that conglomerates often inherit the valuation multiple of their slower-growing component.
Under one scenario, he estimated that combining the companies could erase about $750 billion of equity value unless unusually large revenue or cost synergies emerged.
Also read: SpaceX stock has erased all its IPO gains, but a 76% rally may be brewing
Musk’s influence over both companies could shape discussions around any potential transaction, but it would not eliminate the need for independent scrutiny, shareholder protections and a process designed to address conflicts of interest.
Black argued that SpaceX’s board still owes fiduciary duties to shareholders and could not simply disregard the financial effect of a heavily dilutive acquisition.
The related-party conflict would be obvious.
Musk leads Tesla and controls most SpaceX voting power, placing intense scrutiny on the exchange ratio, valuation assumptions, negotiations and any role assigned to independent directors.
SpaceX’s controlled-company status gives Musk exceptional authority, but it does not make minority investors indifferent to price.
The companies already have growing financial links.
Tesla disclosed that it invested $2 billion in SpaceX common stock in March, representing less than 1% ownership.
It also recognised $87 million of first-quarter revenue from SpaceX purchases of Megapack energy-storage products.
Those links strengthen the industrial argument for closer collaboration across energy and computing.
They also make governance more sensitive, because directors would need to distinguish genuine shareholder benefits from transactions that primarily consolidate Musk’s businesses.
Tesla stock is under selling pressure. What’s pulling TSLA shares down? Federal Investigators Point to Driver Error in Fatal Texas CrashThe National Transportation Safety Board published its initial findings Wednesday from a June 19 collision in Katy, Texas, in which a 2025 Tesla Model 3 plowed into a home at speeds exceeding 70 miles per hour along a residential stretch where the posted limit is 30 miles per hour. Martha Avila, a 76-year-old resident of the home, sustained fatal injuries and died at a nearby hospital, according to Reuters.
Data pulled from the vehicle told a clear story: the 44-year-old driver, Michael Butler, had switched on Full Self-Driving before the crash but brought the system’s control to an end by jamming the accelerator pedal to the floor, sending the car surging well beyond any speed the system would have permitted.
The conclusion echoes what Tesla’s vice president of AI software Ashok Elluswamy had already stated publicly on X the prior month, writing that the driver had pushed the accelerator all the way to 100%.
The agency’s preliminary findings land squarely in Tesla’s corner, supporting the company’s longstanding argument that the crash was a product of human intervention rather than a technological failure.
Critical Technical Levels for TSLA to WatchTesla is still working uphill from a trend perspective. It is trading 2.1% below the 20‑day SMA, 4.8% below the 50‑day SMA and 6.5% below the 200‑day SMA, which keeps rallies prone to selling. The 20‑day SMA sitting below the 50‑day SMA shows the short‑term trend has not turned back to bullish.
RSI is the clearest momentum read at 45.85, which signals neutral to soft momentum rather than an oversold snapback setup. In plain terms, RSI gauges whether recent buying or selling has become stretched and this level suggests neither side has a clear advantage.
The bigger‑picture backdrop still leans bearish after the April death cross, with the 50‑day SMA moving below the 200‑day SMA. The April swing low remains an important reference point for dip buyers. May marked the most recent swing high, so bulls need a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to argue the trend is shifting.
Key Resistance: $433.00 — a nearby round‑number zone that can act as overhead supply during rebounds Key Support: $380.00 — a nearby round‑number level close to current trade where buyers may try to defend the pullback TSLA Shares Are DippingTSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were down 1.30% at $389.33 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro.
Image: Shutterstock
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Given nothing more than the company's reported numbers, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA 0.87%) should have soared following the July 2 release of its total Q2 deliveries.
The 480,126 automobiles it shipped in Q2 were not only up 25% year over year, but topped analysts' consensus estimate of 406,024 units. Nevertheless, Tesla shares immediately stumbled in response to the report and haven't budged in the meantime, even though the market has made some forward progress during this stretch. What gives?
It's a complicated answer because ... well, there's a complicated dynamic surrounding this company and its stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
The rest of the story In a perfect world, stocks' prices make sense, reflecting the underlying companies' potential and risk. When it's impossible to determine what a company could be worth in the foreseeable future, though, investors' assumptions end up all over the map, just reflecting the market's ever-changing perception of that name.
That's largely what's happening here. While founded as an EV outfit, Tesla's foray into energy storage, robotaxis, solar panels, and now an artificial intelligence robotics business that founder and CEO Elon Musk suggests could be the "biggest product of all time" is making it difficult for investors to figure out what the stock's really worth -- it's a budding AI company that also happens to make electric vehicles. And in this instance, it's difficult to deny that the stock's sizable run-up in late June set the stage for knee-jerk profit-taking, regardless of the delivery numbers the company would ultimately report.
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Complicating matters is that shares are still outrageously priced at more than 170 times projected profits.
In other words, nobody can be too terribly surprised that Tesla shares tumbled when they seemingly shouldn't have. One of this ticker's core current attributes is near-term unpredictability.
That said, the market is also connecting dots that aren't Tesla-specific, yet still paint an alarming picture for the electric vehicle industry. This includes Ford Motors Company's (F +0.07%) 41% tumble in EV sales for the same quarter, when General Motors' (GM +0.10%) fell 33%.
That's mostly the result of the wind-down of EV subsidies within the United States, although Tesla didn't exactly outshine its competition on other fronts either. China's electric vehicle powerhouse BYD (BYDDY +3.16%) bounced back from a disappointing Q1 to reclaim its lead from Tesla in terms of worldwide EV deliveries, shipping 557,090 battery-electric vehicles in Q2. It's not necessarily a direct setback for Tesla. Every EV that makes it to the market, however, crimps Tesla's already-waning pricing power.
No in-between That's the chief challenge of buying, selling, or holding a stake in Tesla, of course. There are as many unknowns as there are knowns, and the market will fill in the blanks with whatever knowns it can find when it finds them. The problem is, these knowns are often quickly replaced by the next ones as they surface -- some bullish, some not. That's not necessarily a bad thing. It's just something to keep in mind.
So is this: If you're considering Tesla for your portfolio, either respect that it's getting blown around by ever-changing near-term narratives, or it's a true buy-and-hold (volatile) EV/AI bet to tuck away for a long, long while. Any intended holding period in between could prove maddening, as we've already seen just this month.
Tesla (TSLA 0.87%) is set to report financials for the second quarter of 2026 on Wednesday, July 22. This is an important time for investors, as the business will provide them with performance updates that can inform portfolio moves.
This "Magnificent Seven" stock has meaningfully underperformed the market in 2026 (down 12.4% compared to the S&P 500's 10.6% gain). But is Tesla a buy before its upcoming financial release?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
To be clear, investors shouldn't make investment decisions solely on the basis of front-running a company's earnings report. This is a short-sighted mentality. It's incredibly rare that any information a business reveals related to a single quarter has a material impact on its long-term investment thesis.
That said, there is still valuable data available to investors to assess whether a company is performing well. In Tesla's case, automotive revenue growth and gross margin, the outlook for capital expenditures, and CEO Elon Musk's commentary on Robotaxi and Optimus developments are incredibly important.
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The question, though, isn't if investors should buy Tesla stock before July 22. The question is whether this stock is worth buying and holding for the next five years.
With this framework in mind, I believe investors are better off avoiding Tesla. The stock's extreme price-to-earnings ratio of 358 underscores how astronomical the market's expectations are, creating an asymmetric opportunity skewed to the downside.
The company deserves credit for tackling ambitious projects that can have a global impact. However, the current setup is not compelling.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Tesla (TSLA 1.17%) has been refocusing its business on robots, aiming to ramp up production of its Optimus humanoid robot. However, this is part of a broader push for autonomous machines, including self-driving cars. As usual, CEO Elon Musk has lofty aspirations, but investors need to put them into perspective. And the recent launch of Tesla's Robotaxi services in Miami offers just the opportunity.
What is Tesla offering? The Robotaxi that Elon Musk is so excited about is a self-driving car service built on the Tesla vehicle platform. It is a logical next step for Tesla's electric cars, as the company has long been working on self-driving technology. It could be a big deal, potentially eliminating the need for people to own their own cars. However, that's likely a very distant outcome.
Image source: Tesla.
Right now, Tesla is still building out its Robotaxi business. Miami, Florida, is the latest location to get access to the Robotaxi service. The only other state with Robotaxi service is Texas, where it is available in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. That's a total of four markets in two states, with one of the states being where Tesla's corporate offices are located.
Tesla isn't the only one working on self-driving cars The problem is that Tesla faces fierce competition in the autonomous vehicle market. Many companies are working on the technology. For example, technology giant Alphabet (GOOG 3.09%) has been building out its Waymo service based on its own internal technology. And it is much further along in its expansion.
Waymo offers autonomous taxi services in California in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. In Arizona, a Waymo can be called in Phoenix. In Florida, you can hail a Waymo in Miami (the same city where Tesla just launched a RoboTaxi service) and Orlando. In Tennessee, Waymo is operating in Nashville. And in Texas, Tesla's home market, Waymo services are available in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. You can also get a Waymo via Uber (UBER +1.05%), which is partnering with Alphabet, in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta, Georgia.
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Doing the math on all of that, Waymo is available in some form in five states and 11 markets compared to Tesla's 2 states and five markets. Alphabet's Waymo has a much broader reach than Tesla's Robotaxi at this point.
Don't count Tesla out, but be realistic Tesla's Robotaxi is definitely a big deal, and investors should be paying close attention to the company's progress with the technology. However, it is far from the industry leader in the rollout of autonomous vehicle services. It is still early days, so Tesla could catch up and, perhaps, even take the lead. It will likely be easier to enter markets in which another service is already operating. But right now, Tesla is trailing, and investors need to keep that in mind when evaluating Elon Musk's big Robotaxi dreams.
Key Takeaways TSLA is positioned to benefit as stricter global emissions rules accelerate EV adoption.Its EV focus, scale, batteries, software and charging network strengthen its competitive edge.A lower-cost platform and global reach could expand Tesla's market and support volume growth. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) is well-positioned to capitalize on the global shift toward cleaner transportation as governments across major economies tighten vehicle emissions standards. Stricter carbon regulations are compelling automakers to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) production and expand model offerings. This has helped Tesla, one of the world's leading pure-play EV manufacturers, carve out a niche and pivot toward high-volume, affordable manufacturing and autonomous mobility.
Tougher Emission Rules Accelerate EV AdoptionGovernments worldwide continue to strengthen regulations aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. The European Union has implemented progressively stricter fleet carbon dioxide emission targets, while China continues to support new-energy vehicle adoption through a combination of regulatory mandates and industrial policies. Several other countries, including Australia and Canada, have also introduced or strengthened vehicle efficiency standards, encouraging automakers to expand their electric portfolios.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global EV sales surpassed 20 million units in 2025, accounting for nearly one in every four new cars sold worldwide. The agency expects increasingly stringent emissions regulations to remain a key catalyst for EV adoption over the long term.
More EV Models Expand Addressable MarketAs automakers race to comply with tougher emissions standards, consumers are benefiting from an expanding range of EVs across multiple price points and vehicle segments. Greater model availability should further accelerate consumer adoption by improving affordability and offering buyers more choices. Although increased competition presents challenges for established players, it also broadens the overall EV market, creating a favorable backdrop for industry leaders like Tesla.
Tesla's Pure-Play EV Model Offers a Competitive EdgeUnlike traditional automakers that continue to balance investments across internal combustion engine, hybrid and EVs, Tesla operates exclusively in the battery-electric vehicle market. Its fully electric lineup eliminates the regulatory burden of reducing fleet-average emissions, allowing the company to remain ahead of tightening environmental standards.
Tesla also continues to leverage its competitive strengths, including manufacturing scale, vertically integrated operations, advanced battery technology, proprietary software capabilities and one of the industry's largest fast-charging networks. These advantages have enabled the company to maintain its leadership position even as global competition intensifies.
Moreover, Tesla remains focused on broadening its addressable market through the planned introduction of a lower-cost EV platform. A more affordable offering could significantly expand its customer base and support volume growth over the long run.
Price PerformanceTesla has soared 23.5% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 34.4%, outperforming peers like Toyota Motor Corporation (TM - Free Report) but lagging General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) . While Toyota has risen 3.8%, General Motors has surged 45.9% over this period.
One-Year Stock Price Performance of TSLA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Promising Long-Term TailwindsWhile the pace of EV adoption may fluctuate across regions due to evolving policy incentives and macroeconomic conditions, the long-term direction remains unchanged. Governments continue to pursue decarbonization goals through stricter emissions standards, creating a favorable environment for electric vehicles.
Tesla is also well diversified geographically, with significant operations in North America, Europe and China—three of the world's largest EV markets. This global footprint enables the company to benefit from strengthening environmental regulations across multiple regions.
Investment TakeawayTesla continues to face near-term headwinds, including pricing pressure, rising competition and uneven EV demand. Nevertheless, the long-term investment thesis remains firmly supported by the ongoing global transition toward zero-emission transportation.
As emission standards become increasingly stringent and automakers introduce more electric models to comply with regulatory requirements, EV adoption is expected to continue expanding. Backed by its technology leadership, manufacturing expertise, and pure-play EV business model, Tesla appears well-poised to benefit from this secular growth trend, making the stock an attractive choice for investors seeking long-term exposure to the global electrification theme.
Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The logo of Tesla is seen on a Tesla Model Y during Tesla Inc.'s official launch in Bogota, Colombia, November 20, 2025. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesWASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Thursday said it was denying a 2024 petition filed by Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab to avoid a recall fix for nearly 20,000 vehicles with headlights that may exceed maximum lighting levels.
Tesla argued the issue was inconsequential to motor vehicle safety and did not require a recall or notification to consumers. NHTSA said it disagreed with Tesla’s conclusion that there is no increased risk of glare for surrounding traffic or the driver of the vehicle. The recall covers about 19,900 2017-2023 model year Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y vehicles, NHTSA said.
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Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The agency noted in 2022 it rejected a similar petition from GM (GM.N), opens new tab to avoid fixing 820,000 vehicles over a lighting issue.
Tesla added it is unaware of any complaints or reports of accidents or injuries related to this issue and believes it is inconsequential to safety.
NHTSA said weather conditions such as rain, snow, and fog "could result in light from the noncompliant lamps causing veiling glare to the driver or other road users driving" near those Tesla vehicles.
A survey released by the American Automobile Association in March said 6 in 10 drivers say glare is a problem after dark, and nearly three-quarters of those believe it has worsened over the past decade.
NHTSA in 2022 rejected a petition to require a recall for vehicles using LED headlights including some Tesla Model 3, Ford Bronco, and Rivian R1T motor vehicles. The petition had argued they caused excessive glare.
Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Traders on Polymarket have sharply scaled back bets that a Tesla-SpaceX merger will be announced this year, even as Wall Street analysts insist a tie-up is only a matter of time.
The prediction market now puts just an 11% chance on an official announcement by 30 September, down 28 percentage points, while the odds of a deal being unveiled by 31 December have fallen 19 points to 24%.
More than $836,000 has been wagered across the market, which resolves yes if either company announces it is being acquired by or merged with the other, regardless of whether the deal completes.
The retreat contrasts with bullish calls from analysts, with Wedbush's Dan Ives putting the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up at about 80% and arguing the connective tissue between the companies is already forming.
Speculation intensified after SpaceX's $85.7 billion initial public offering, which created a company now valued at around $2.44 trillion with $100.8 billion in cash.
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell declined to dismiss the idea when asked directly in June, suggesting a tie-up might make Elon Musk's life a little easier.
Musk has exercised 304 million Tesla options, lifting his voting stake to 19.9% as he targets the 25% control he says is needed to advance the carmaker's AI ambitions.
The two companies already share extensive commercial ties, including joint ownership of the Terafab chip facility, and SpaceX bought $697 million of Tesla's Megapack battery systems in 2024 and 2025.
Musk has form for consolidation, having folded social media platform X into xAI in 2025 before SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal this year.
Musk himself has acknowledged the complexity, telling analysts that any deal would have to make sure Tesla shareholders are served and SpaceX shareholders are served.
Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA shares have been consolidating ahead of the company's July 22 Q2 earnings report, with the stock's recent range continuing to narrow. That kind of price-action tightening is often a sign that the market is firmly in wait-and-see mode.
However, Tesla recently delivered a surprisingly strong data point that might just swing the balance in favor of the bulls. Earlier this month, the company reported record quarterly deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, beating consensus estimates by 18%. Just as importantly, deliveries outpaced production, a sign that inventory levels are healthy heading into the report rather than being propped up by discounting or channel stuffing.
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On paper, that's exactly the kind of headline that should silence at least some of the critics who’ve been questioning demand, worrying about Chinese competition, and flagging a valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.
The real question is whether it could actually translate into the kind of knockout earnings report that proves the bears wrong and gets the stock turning north again.
Its EV Business Has Some Life Left YetIt's worth noting that this delivery beat has arrived just as Tesla's core EV business has been looking its most vulnerable. Slowing growth, mounting competition, and questions over demand had combined to leave its established car business looking increasingly tired in recent months.
And while much of the investor focus has indeed shifted to other parts of the business, this latest number is the clearest sign yet that there might be some juice left in its EV business.
What makes that all the more compelling is that the stock hasn't really moved to reflect that shift. Deliveries beating estimates by roughly 18% is the kind of print that would usually spark a meaningful jump in shares. Instead, they’ve barely budged, which suggests the market either hasn't fully absorbed the news or remains too nervous to commit ahead of the report.
Why Margins Could Actually Matter MoreFor all the enthusiasm around the delivery beat, the real swing factor for the July 22 report could be the company’s gross margin. Deliveries can tell investors how many cars Tesla sold, but the margins tell them how profitably it sold them, and that's ultimately the number the market cares most about.
Gross margin deterioration has been flagged repeatedly as one of the company’s primary headwinds, and for good reason. Tesla has leaned on price cuts and incentives at various points over the past few years to keep volumes moving. If that dynamic shows up again in the Q2 numbers, it could easily offset the goodwill generated by the delivery beat.
The AI and Robotics Story Adds Another LayerFor those tempted to lean into the potential upside surprise in the Q2 earnings report, several other factors support the bull case. Beyond the core automotive business, Tesla's non-EV ambitions have been quietly gathering momentum, and they are likely to feature heavily in how investors judge the update.
The ongoing rollout of its robotaxi service is a good example, with Tesla recently expanding the offering to Miami. Its energy storage business has also been climbing steadily, emerging as an additional high-margin growth engine in its own right.
Add in the continued progress on its Full Self-Driving and Optimus initiatives, and the picture that emerges is of a company whose growth story no longer rests solely on vehicle sales. For a stock that's often been valued as much for its future potential as for its present-day earnings, that broadening base of momentum gives the bulls plenty to point to heading into the earnings report.
Sizing Up the OpportunityTesla Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$408.07
3.48% Upside
Hold
Based on 46 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$394.35High Forecast$600.00Average Forecast$408.07Low Forecast$25.28Tesla Stock Forecast Details
For those currently watching from the wings, the reality remains that Tesla is a famously divisive ticker, a sentiment that hasn't shifted despite the recent delivery strength. Wall Street's overall consensus rating remains a Hold, underscoring the split. Wells Fargo reiterated its Underweight rating, while other analysts have continued to focus on Tesla's long-term AI and robotics potential.
It’s this kind of divergence that places so much weight on the earnings call. If Tesla can pair healthy margins with some genuinely bullish updates to its newer growth engines, it should be enough to swing the narrative firmly back toward the bulls.
However, should those numbers miss the mark, the long-standing questions about its premium valuation will likely linger, regardless of how many cars were delivered last quarter. Either way, the coming days should finally offer some clarity on which side of the argument has been getting it right.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Tesla Right Now?Before you consider Tesla, you'll want to hear this.
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The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said Wednesday that the driver of a Tesla who crashed into a house in June had pressed the accelerator pedal to 100%, overriding the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software.
Data recovered from the Tesla showed that the vehicle was traveling more than 70 miles per hour when it struck a house in Katy, Texas, killing 76-year-old resident Martha Avila, according to the NTSB. The family of the victim has since sued the alleged driver, 44-year-old Michael Butler, and Tesla, claiming negligence. Butler has also been charged with manslaughter.
The safety board shared the information as part of a preliminary report on the progress of its investigation into the crash. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is also probing the incident.
The data confirms Tesla’s account of the crash, which the company shared in the days after it happened in order to show that its advanced driver assistance system wasn’t to blame. “[T]his [allegation] makes no sense. FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash!” Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote on X shortly after the crash.
The NTSB said Wednesday that the 44-year-old driver was using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) on Rose Hollow Lane, a residential two-lane road with a speed limit of 30 miles per hour, prior to the crash. Security camera footage obtained by the safety board showed the car accelerating through an intersection, leaving the road, and hitting the house. The “weather was clear, the roadway was dry, and daylight conditions were present,” according to the NTSB.
Tesla requires that drivers using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) pay attention to the road and be ready to take control at any moment. Butler allegedly told authorities that he had “passed out” and that he was using Tesla’s driver assistance system. Police reportedly discovered that his Google searches included the terms “Tesla FSD not aggressive enough 2026,” “Tesla not aggressive enough,” and “Tesla FSD too timid,” according to local ABC news affiliate station KTRK TV.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
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Battery X Metals has successfully completed a first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype, marking a significant commercial readiness milestone for its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform. The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y represent one of the world's largest installed electric vehicle platforms and collectively account for more than half of the U.S. electric vehicle market, with the Model Y representing approximately 34.2% of U.S. EV sales and the Model 3 approximately 20.2%, reinforcing the strategic importance of compatibility with these battery architectures
The engineering validation program successfully confirmed the Tesla Adaptor's proprietary interface architecture, including mechanical fitment, dimensional accuracy, electrical interface alignment and standardized battery pack connectivity. Management believes this establishes a repeatable engineering framework to support future proprietary adaptor development across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery platforms.
Battery X Metals has commenced the next phase of development focused on advancing the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product. As part of this initiative, the Company has acquired a Tesla Model 3 battery pack for dedicated research and development, engineering validation and working prototype testing while continuing to expand compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery platforms.
VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESS Newswire / July 15, 2026 / Battery X Metals Inc. (CSE:BATX)(OTCQB:BATXF)(FSE:5YW0, WKN:A41RJF)("Battery X Metals" or the "Company") an energy transition resource exploration and technology company, announces that, further to its news release dated January 2, 2026, the Company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies Inc. ("Battery X Rebalancing Technologies"), together with its strategic lithium-ion battery rebalancing hardware and software development partner, Beijing Pengneng Science & Technology Ltd. ("BJPN"), has successfully completed development of a first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype (the "Tesla Adaptor").
Development of the First-Generation Tesla Adaptor
Building upon the Company's Tesla battery interface characterization program, as previously disclosed in its news release dated January 2, 2026, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies, in collaboration with BJPN, successfully developed the first-generation Tesla Adaptor working prototype. The prototype represents the initial physical implementation of the Company's proprietary digital engineering model, designed to establish a standardized interface with Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery platforms.
The first-generation Tesla Adaptor was developed as an engineering validation prototype rather than a commercial production unit. This phase was undertaken to validate the Company's proprietary interface architecture by demonstrating that its digital engineering design could be successfully translated into a functional physical assembly capable of reliably interfacing with Tesla battery systems.
The successful completion of this development milestone confirmed key engineering objectives, including mechanical fitment, dimensional accuracy, electrical interface alignment, and standardized connectivity with Tesla battery packs. Collectively, these achievements validate the foundational interface architecture and establish an important engineering platform for the continued development, optimization, and future commercialization of the Company's battery rebalancing ecosystem.
Commercial Significance
The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y collectively represent one of the largest and most strategically significant electric vehicle platforms globally. Tesla is expected to surpass 10 million cumulative global vehicle sales during the third quarter of 2026.1 Of these cumulative deliveries, the Tesla Model 3 is estimated to account for approximately 3.50 million vehicles, while the Tesla Model Y is estimated to account for approximately 5.39 million vehicles.1 Together, the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are estimated to represent approximately 8.89 million cumulative vehicle sales, accounting for approximately 89% of Tesla's expected cumulative global deliveries.2
Tesla continues to be the leading electric vehicle manufacturer in the United States, accounting for approximately 59.7% of the U.S. electric vehicle market as of January 2026.3 Within that market, the Tesla Model Y represents approximately 34.2% of all U.S. EV sales, while the Tesla Model 3 represents approximately 20.2%, collectively accounting for more than half of the U.S. electric vehicle market.3 Management believes focusing commercialization efforts on battery architectures supporting these market-leading vehicles positions the Company's battery rebalancing platform to address one of the largest installed electric vehicle populations in North America.3
Battery X Metals believes compatibility with these high-volume battery architectures represents a significant commercial readiness milestone in the Company's broader multi-platform commercialization strategy, supporting the expansion of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform across one of the world's largest installed electric vehicle populations.
Through the development of proprietary adaptor solutions for leading electric vehicle battery architectures, the Company intends to establish a scalable compatibility ecosystem capable of supporting deployment across automotive service centres, dealership networks, fleet operators, and other commercial customers. The first-generation Tesla Adaptor represents a foundational milestone in executing this strategy, enabling standardized integration with one of the industry's largest battery platforms while expanding the addressable market for the Company's battery diagnostics, rebalancing, and battery lifespan extension technologies.
As millions of electric vehicles transition beyond their original battery warranty coverage, the Company believes demand for technologies that restore usable battery capacity, extend battery lifespan, and reduce total cost of ownership will continue to increase. By expanding compatibility across high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures, Battery X Metals believes it is well positioned to participate in the rapidly emerging battery lifecycle management market.
Next Steps
With completion of the foundational engineering validation phase, the Company has commenced the next stage of development focused on advancing the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product. Future development activities are expected to include continued engineering optimization, industrial design refinement, material selection, manufacturability, durability enhancement, commercial product integration and ongoing interface validation to further optimize repeatability, reliability and compatibility across Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery platforms.
The Company intends to continue expanding its proprietary adaptor portfolio and multi-platform compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures as part of its long-term commercialization strategy. Management believes this systematic development approach strengthens the technical infrastructure supporting broader deployment of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform while expanding its commercial applicability and serviceable addressable market.
As part of its next phase of development, the Company acquired a Tesla Model 3 battery pack from an arm's length third party for $500, plus applicable GST, for dedicated research and development purposes. The battery pack will be used to further refine the commercial version of the Company's proprietary Tesla Adaptor, conduct additional engineering validation, and perform working prototype testing under representative operating conditions. Management believes this in-house testing capability will support continued product optimization and accelerate development toward a production-oriented commercial product.
As part of its broader commercialization strategy, the Company intends to continue advancing its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform through additional software and hardware enhancements, engineering validation, product optimization and Underwriters Laboratories ("UL") certification. Development of the Tesla Adaptor is also expected to continue through additional hardware refinement, engineering validation and UL certification. The Company is currently evaluating the scope, timing and anticipated costs associated with these commercialization activities, including engineering, certification, manufacturing readiness and go-to-market initiatives. Commercialization of both the Company's battery rebalancing platform and the Tesla Adaptor remains subject to the completion of these development activities, receipt of UL certification, manufacturing readiness, execution of go-to-market initiatives, the availability of adequate capital resources and other customary commercialization requirements.
The Problem: Rising EV Adoption Presents New Battery Lifecycle Challenges
In 2024, global EV sales reached approximately 17.1 million units, representing a 25% increase from 2023.4 With cumulative global EV sales from 2015 to 2023 totaling an estimated over 40 million units,5 a significant share of the global EV fleet is expected to exit warranty coverage over the coming years. 6,7
By 2031, nearly 40 million electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid vehicles worldwide are anticipated to fall outside of their original warranty coverage.6,7 This projection is based on current EV adoption figures and standard industry warranty terms, and underscores a growing risk for EV owners facing battery degradation, reduced capacity, and costly replacement requirements.8 As the global EV fleet continues to expand, the demand for technologies that extend battery life, reduce long-term ownership costs, and support a sustainable transition to electric mobility is increasing.
The Solution: Pioneering Next-Generation Technologies to Support Lithium-Ion Battery Longevity
Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' proprietary software and hardware technology aims to address this challenge by extending the lifespan of EV batteries. This innovation is being developed with the aim to enhance the sustainability of electric transportation and the goal to provide EV owners with a more cost-effective, environmentally friendly ownership experience by reducing the need for costly battery replacements.
Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' rebalancing technology, validated by the National Research Council of Canada ("NRC"), focuses on battery cell rebalancing. The NRC validation demonstrated the technology's ability to effectively correct cell imbalances in lithium-ion battery packs, recovering nearly all lost capacity due to cell imbalance. The validation was conducted on battery modules composed of fifteen 72Ah LiFePO₄ cells connected in series. The cells were initially balanced to a uniform state of charge (SOC), with a measured discharge capacity of 71.10Ah. In the validation test, three of the fifteen cells were then artificially imbalanced-one cell was charged to a 20% higher SOC, and two cells were discharged to a 20% lower SOC-resulting in a reduced discharge capacity of 46.24Ah, representing a decrease of approximately 35%. Following rebalancing using Battery X Rebalancing Technologies' rebalancing technology, the battery module's discharge capacity was restored to 70.94Ah, representing the recovery of approximately 99% of the capacity lost due to cell imbalance.
These advancements establish Battery X Rebalancing Technologies as a participant in lithium-ion and EV battery solutions, aiming to tackle the critical challenges of capacity degradation of battery packs and expensive replacements. By extending the lifecycle of battery materials within the supply chain, Battery X Rebalancing Technologies aims to support the energy transition and promote a more sustainable future.
1 CleanTechnica, 2 Calculated by the Company based on estimated cumulative Tesla Model 3 and Model Y sales published by CleanTechnica, 3 Edmunds, 4 Rho Motion - Global EV Sales 2024, 5 IEA Global EV Outlook 2024, 6 IEA, 7 U.S. News, 8 Recurrent Auto
About Battery X Metals Inc.
Battery X Metals (CSE:BATX)(OTCQB:BATXF)(FSE:5YW0, WKN: A41RJF) is an energy transition resource exploration and technology company committed to advancing domestic battery and critical metal resource exploration and developing next-generation proprietary technologies. Taking a diversified, 360° approach to the battery metals industry, the Company focuses on exploration, lifespan extension, and recycling of lithium-ion batteries and battery materials. For more information, visit batteryxmetals.com.
On Behalf of the Board of Directors
Massimo Bellini Bressi, Director
For further information, please contact:
Massimo Bellini Bressi
Chief Executive Officer
Email: [email protected]
Tel: (604) 694-9823
Disclaimer for Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements in this release relate to, among other things: the Company's business objectives, strategies and future plans relating to the continued development, optimization, refinement, engineering validation, manufacturing readiness and commercialization of its patent-pending lithium-ion battery rebalancing platform and proprietary battery adaptor technology; the significance of the successful completion of the first-generation proprietary Tesla Model 3 and Model Y battery adaptor working prototype; the anticipated benefits, commercial significance and scalability of the Company's proprietary battery adaptor architecture and multi-platform commercialization strategy; the continued development, validation, refinement, certification and commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor and additional proprietary battery adaptors for other electric vehicle battery platforms; the Company's ability to expand compatibility across additional high-volume electric vehicle battery architectures; the anticipated benefits of compatibility expansion activities; the commercial applicability and serviceable addressable market of the Company's battery lifecycle management technologies; the advancement of the Tesla Adaptor toward a production-oriented commercial product; the anticipated benefits of the Company's research and development activities, including engineering validation and working prototype testing utilizing the Tesla Model 3 battery pack; the evaluation of the scope, timing and anticipated costs associated with future commercialization activities, including engineering, certification, UL certification, manufacturing readiness, regulatory approvals and go-to-market initiatives; the anticipated growth of the out-of-warranty electric vehicle market; the expected demand for battery diagnostics, battery rebalancing and battery lifespan extension technologies; the Company's ability to obtain, maintain and protect intellectual property rights relating to its proprietary and patent-pending technologies; the anticipated commercial performance, customer adoption and market acceptance of the Company's technologies; and the Company's broader commercialization strategy and participation in the battery lifecycle management market. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are believed to be reasonable as of the date of this news release, including assumptions regarding the continued advancement of product development activities; the successful engineering optimization, validation, refinement, certification and commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor and future proprietary battery adaptors; the successful completion of research and development and engineering validation activities; the successful expansion of compatibility across additional electric vehicle battery platforms; the completion of UL certification and other required regulatory or commercial approvals; the continued cooperation of third-party development partners, manufacturers, suppliers and service providers; the continued growth of electric vehicle adoption and the out-of-warranty electric vehicle market; the continued availability and reliability of third-party market data and industry information referenced herein; the anticipated demand for battery lifecycle management solutions; the Company's ability to obtain, maintain and enforce intellectual property protection for its proprietary technologies; the availability of adequate capital and other resources to complete commercialization activities; and the Company's ability to execute its commercialization strategy. However, forward-looking statements are inherently subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: technical, engineering, manufacturing or operational challenges; delays or failures in the continued development, refinement, validation, certification or commercialization of the Tesla Adaptor, the Company's battery rebalancing platform or additional proprietary battery adaptors; the possibility that engineering validation activities or prototype testing may not be replicated in future testing, production environments or commercial applications, and that successful prototype validation may not result in a commercially viable product; challenges associated with expanding compatibility across additional electric vehicle battery platforms; changes in electric vehicle technologies, battery architectures, communication protocols, battery chemistries, firmware, software, industry standards or competitive conditions, including changes to Tesla battery systems that may require additional engineering, redesign or validation; delays in obtaining UL certification or other regulatory or commercial approvals, achieving manufacturing readiness, executing go-to-market initiatives, commencing commercial production or achieving customer adoption or market acceptance; reliance on third-party development partners, manufacturers, suppliers and service providers; risks relating to the protection, maintenance, enforcement or validity of the Company's intellectual property rights and patent-pending technologies; the possibility that third-party market data or industry estimates referenced herein may change or be revised; financing, regulatory, legal and intellectual property risks; the availability of adequate capital resources to complete commercialization activities; general economic, market and geopolitical conditions; and other risks associated with the development and commercialization of emerging clean technologies. There can be no assurance that the Company's battery rebalancing platform or the Tesla Adaptor will successfully progress beyond engineering validation to commercial production, that anticipated commercialization milestones or timelines, including completion of development activities, certification, manufacturing readiness, regulatory approvals or go-to-market initiatives, will be achieved, that compatibility with additional battery platforms will be successfully developed or commercialized, that the Company's technologies will achieve commercial performance, customer adoption or market acceptance, that adequate capital resources will be available to complete commercialization activities, or that the Company will successfully commercialize or achieve widespread adoption of its battery rebalancing platform or proprietary battery adaptor technologies. Except as required by applicable securities laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information to reflect new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are encouraged to consult the Company's continuous disclosure filings available under its profile on SEDAR+ for additional risk factors and further information.
As Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock held above a major multi-year support zone, a Deutsche Bank analyst reiterated bullish sentiment.
In a note to clients on July 15, Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating for Tesla stock. Additionally, the bank set a 12-month price target of $465 for TSLA shares, signaling a potential 17% upside.
“The analyst maintains a constructive long-term outlook on Tesla, emphasizing durable growth drivers (autonomy, robotics, and AI) while acknowledging near-term earnings pressure,” the bank noted.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla to report Q2 adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, which falls short of the Street consensus of $0.47. Nevertheless, the firm projects the company’s full-year vehicle deliveries of approximately 1.77 million units, representing mid- to high-single-digit growth compared to the prior year.
Why is Deutsche Bank bullish on Tesla stock? The bank highlighted several key developments in Tesla’s autonomous and robotics initiatives, likely to act as a tailwind. While the Tesla Robotaxi rollout has progressed more slowly than market expectations, Deutsche Bank pointed out that commercial operations in Austin have yet to experience any major accidents.
Meanwhile, Cybercab production has begun but is described as facing a “slow and painful ramp,” with the focus currently on engineering validation and internal testing ahead of broader scaling in late 2026 and 2027. On the robotics front, the bank noted optimistic targets for the Optimus humanoid, with production guidance of roughly 1,000 units per week by September.
Additionally, Tesla’s AI5 chip has completed tape-out, with initial supply prioritized for the company’s AI supercomputer and Optimus program. The upcoming Tesla earnings call is expected to draw significant investor attention to potential integration opportunities between Tesla and SpaceX, a topic analysts believe could become increasingly prominent over the next one to two years.
Despite these long-term tailwinds, Deutsche Bank flagged risks for Tesla stock, including the delayed Robotaxi timeline and execution challenges around the Cybercab ramp.
TSLA stock forecasts 2026 and performance Following the bank’s bullish TSLA stock forecast 2026, 29 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set a 12-month price target of $402.69. As such, analysts have assigned Tesla stock an average rating of Hold for the next 12 months.
TSLA stock forecast. Source: TipRanks Meanwhile, TSLA shares have been on an uptrend over the past 12 months, up over 23% to $396.67 at press time.
TSLA stock 12-month chart. Source: Finbold As such, the company had a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion at the time of reporting. If Tesla stock continues to benefit from bullish macro sentiment, the bank’s and analysts’ targets could be met, and vice versa.
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Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 22, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis electric car maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +17.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $24.73 billion, up 10% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.22% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Tesla?For Tesla, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +16.12%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that Tesla will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Tesla would post earnings of $0.36 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.41, delivering a surprise of +13.89%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Tesla appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Key Takeaways SPCX is now Musk's primary wealth driver as its valuation, launch leadership and Starlink expand.Reusable rockets and frequent missions give SpaceX a commanding share of commercial launches.Starlink's recurring revenue and SpaceX's AI infrastructure push broaden its long-term growth base. For years, Tesla Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) has been the crown jewel of Elon Musk's businesses. The electric vehicle (EV) pioneer had revolutionized the auto industry with its innovations and generated enormous wealth for shareholders, becoming the golden goose of Musk's sprawling empire.
But the narrative is gradually beginning to shift.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) has rapidly emerged as one of the world's most valuable business enterprises, driven by the success of its reusable launch business and the explosive growth of Starlink, its satellite broadband unit. As SpaceX's valuation continues to soar, several experts believe that it has overtaken Tesla as the largest contributor to Musk's net worth, with exposure to several powerful secular growth themes.
Let us delve a little deeper into the companies’ competitive dynamics to analyze the claim.
Why SpaceX is Gaining the Upper HandWith a blockbuster IPO that raised an unprecedented $75 billion, SpaceX surpassed Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) by market capitalization and even briefly overtook Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) . From revolutionizing launch services with reusable rockets to building the world's largest satellite broadband network, SpaceX intends to strengthen its position as the dominant force in the rapidly expanding space economy.
Leadership in Commercial Space LaunchesSpaceX has built an enviable competitive moat through its reusable rocket technology. Its Falcon 9 remains the industry's workhorse, enabling the company to dominate the global commercial launch market while serving NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense and several international customers. Frequent launches not only strengthen revenue visibility but also reinforce SpaceX's technological leadership. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.
Starlink Has Become a Major Growth EngineStarlink is arguably the biggest driver of SpaceX's rising valuation. The satellite broadband business has expanded rapidly by providing high-speed Internet connectivity to consumers, businesses, airlines, maritime operators and government agencies across the globe. Unlike the cyclical launch business, Starlink generates recurring subscription revenue, offering investors a more predictable and scalable growth model. As subscriber additions continue and enterprise adoption expands, Starlink is increasingly viewed as SpaceX's long-term earnings powerhouse.
Focus on Integrated AI InfrastructureSpaceX is aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink. As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, will operate under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure. SpaceX has also entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market.
Tesla Remains a Technology LeaderWhile Tesla has faced a more challenging operating environment recently, the company remains much more than an EV manufacturer.
AI Could Drive the Next Phase of GrowthTesla's long-term investment thesis increasingly hinges on AI. Its Full Self-Driving software, Dojo supercomputer and autonomous driving ambitions could eventually transform it into a mobility and AI platform rather than simply an automaker. Successful commercialization of robotaxis would open a sizable new revenue stream and support a higher valuation multiple.
Energy Storage is Becoming a Bigger ContributorTesla Energy has quietly emerged as one of the company's fastest-growing businesses. Growing demand for Megapack battery storage systems from utilities and commercial customers is helping diversify revenue beyond vehicle sales. As renewable energy adoption accelerates globally, Tesla's energy business could become an increasingly important earnings driver.
Strong Manufacturing CapabilitiesTesla has certain advantages through vertical integration, manufacturing efficiency and software expertise. Its global production footprint and ability to scale operations remain key competitive strengths despite mounting competition across the EV market.
Has SpaceX Moved Up in the Hierarchy?Both SpaceX and Tesla have execution risk with near-term headwinds. However, SpaceX has become the primary driver of Elon Musk's personal wealth thanks to its rapidly rising market valuation, leadership in commercial space launches and the strong growth trajectory of Starlink. Unlike Tesla, whose core automotive business is navigating slowing industry growth and intensifying competition, SpaceX continues to operate in markets with significant barriers to entry and relatively limited competition.
However, that does not diminish Tesla's long-term investment case. Tesla remains one of the most innovative companies in the world, with significant opportunities in autonomous driving, AI and energy storage. But the growing prominence of SpaceX underscores just how dramatically the center of gravity within Musk's business empire has shifted.
Both SpaceX and Tesla currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and above our model estimate.Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh, up 40% year over year, led by Megapack and Powerwall demand.Tesla's high valuation, $25B capex plan and uncertain AI and robotaxi timelines weigh on its appeal. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 47 cents per share and $24.7 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised upward by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 17.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 10%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s revenues is pegged at $102 billion, implying a rise of 7.6% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.11, suggesting an uptick of around 27% on a year-over-year basis.
In the trailing four quarters, this electric vehicle (EV) and technology giant topped EPS estimates on three occasions and missed once, with the average negative earnings surprise being 5.48%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for TSLA
Our proprietary model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TSLA has an Earnings ESP of +16.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Tesla’s Q2 ResultsIn the second quarter, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles (including 467,762 Model 3/Y and 12,364 other models), beating our model estimate of 400,133 units. Deliveries increased 34% sequentially and 25% on a year-over-year basis. It was Tesla’s strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. Back then, sales got a similar lift when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired, prompting Tesla and other automakers to see a temporary surge in demand.
Second-quarter deliveries were largely driven by high gas prices amid the Middle East conflict, which likely pushed consumers toward EVs. Demand trends strengthened across key international markets like Europe and China.Although Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, Europe was a key catalyst, where sales momentum has been robust in recent months. In China, where Tesla commands a huge presence, retail deliveries rebounded strongly in May, snapping a two-month run of year-over-year sales declines. Despite softer U.S. demand, robust international performance helped offset the weakness.
Tesla’s smaller pure-play EV peers—Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) and Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) —came up with contrasting second-quarter delivery reports. While Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, topping estimates and its own prior guidance, Lucid fell short of expectations, delivering just 3,953 vehicles.
Coming back to Tesla, we expect the company’s automotive revenues and gross margins to improve year over year on the back of strong deliveries. We forecast second-quarter total automotive revenues and gross margins at $17 billion (up over 2% year over year) and $3.2 billion (up 11% year over year).
The company’s energy business revenues are also expected to increase as Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter, reflecting an uptick of 53% and 40% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The number also came ahead of our model projection of 12.66 GWh. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected demand for Megapack and Powerwall.
Tesla Price Performance & ValuationOver the past year, shares of Tesla have risen 23%, outperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla stock is quite overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 13.68, way higher than the industry as well as its own 5-year average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play TSLA Stock NowYes, Tesla's delivery trends are improving, but deliveries are no longer the company's central growth story. Its energy storage business is also performing well, though it still accounts for a relatively small portion of overall revenues.
Tesla has aggressively pivoted toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). The problem is these are long-cycle bets with uncertain timelines. The company operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami and supervised service in the San Fransico Bay Area. Still, it has a lot of catching up to do with Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) Waymo, which is the frontrunner in this space. CEO Elon Musk has already pushed back the robotaxi timeline. The story with Optimus is also not much different. On the first-quarter earnings call, Musk admitted production will be “quite slow” and said it’s “literally impossible to predict” output this year.
On top of that, Tesla lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion. Management has warned that free cash flow could turn negative as it ramps up spending on AI and autonomous-driving initiatives.
Tesla does possess a powerful brand, industry-leading technology capabilities, and multiple long-term growth platforms. Tesla’s next chapter could be transformational, but it is capital-intensive, high-risk, and likely years away from delivering material financial returns. Until then, execution and valuation risks remain concerning. As such, from a broader perspective, this may not be the right entry point for new investors, even if Tesla beats second-quarter earnings expectations.
SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered record Q2 2026 volumes, but quality of demand is deteriorating amid heavy incentives and falling average selling prices.Despite strong top-line growth, TSLA faces negative free cash flow projections for 2026–2027 as capital expenditures outpace operating cash generation.My sum-of-the-parts analysis yields a fair value of $127/share, implying 68% downside versus the current ~$400 price—justifying a continued Strong Sell rating.At TSLA stock's current valuation, the market is pricing in unproven future success for Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD, while core automotive profitability and cash flow weaken. Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Executive Summary Did you know that a restaurant can fill all its tables Monday through Sunday and still lose money? It seems absurd, but all it takes is offering overly generous discounts, or financing
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), also known as just SpaceX, is a company that could disrupt many different industries, including space travel and telecom. But one that investors may not have considered is the smartphone market. While its Starlink service offers mobile internet for smartphones, CEO Elon Musk has also hinted that entering the smartphone market may be a possibility.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company reportedly has a prototype for a device that's similar to an iPhone According to a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX has been working on a device that has a slimmer design than Apple's iPhone. While it's designed to help people interact with artificial intelligence (AI), its capabilities could certainly extend beyond that, as it's expected to use a Snapdragon chipset from Qualcomm.
The device is nowhere near launching, and there is no certainty that it will even come to market. But with Musk being critical of Apple's restrictive app store policies, it also wouldn't be surprising if he were to want to bring his own smartphone or similar device to market, one that could rival Apple's popular devices. He has suggested in the past that while he isn't thrilled with the idea of doing so, he may feel compelled.
"The idea of making a phone makes me want to die. But if we have to make a phone, we will. But we will aspire not to make a phone."
Is SpaceX the ultimate growth stock to own? One of the most compelling reasons to invest in SpaceX despite its high valuation is that it has some tremendous growth opportunities. Not only can its reusable rockets revolutionize space travel, but its Starlink business could make it a big player in the telecom sector. And its biggest opportunities are in artificial intelligence (AI), with the company planning to put data centers into space. SpaceX arguably already has too many places to spend and invest in as it is. A smartphone may be a possibility down the road, but I wouldn't expect that to be a focus for the business at this stage.
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SpaceX has already been incurring billions in losses, and investing in too many different areas at once could prove to be costly and risky. While making risky investments can work for large tech companies with massive resources and strong financials, that strategy may not be as sound for a company such as SpaceX, which still needs to find its way out of the red.
SpaceX may be an exciting stock to own, but it's also a highly risky one, and there are arguably far better growth stocks out there for investors that offer a better mix of growth and safety.
To say Tesla has been a solid investment might be the understatement of the century. A $10,000 purchase during Tesla's initial public offering would be worth roughly $2.57 million now.
TSLA data by YCharts.
It's also fair to say that some investors might not want to take on the added risk from Tesla as it drives toward a future that includes humanoid robots, driverless vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI). It's not the same electric vehicle (EV) maker it once was, for better or worse.
If that business transition has you reconsidering your investment options, there's another automaker -- arguably the best auto stock out there -- named Ferrari (RACE 0.98%) that warrants your attention. Here are three reasons to consider it if Tesla is no longer an investment you're comfortable with.
1. Money, money, money! Ferrari has long separated itself from the traditional automotive industry investment thesis. The industry is known for being capital intensive, cyclical, and for having thin margins. As you can see in the graphic below, Ferrari's margins for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) dwarf the mainstream automotive industry.
RACE EBITDA Margin (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.
Ferrari's gross profit margins routinely check in above 50%, and often Wall Street values and views the automaker as a luxury goods stock. That's more than fair considering that Ferrari's pricing power and brand image enable it to deliberately limit production to drive scarcity and exclusivity. The result is that Ferrari simply doesn't need discounts or incentives to sell vehicles, and that means more money flows to the bottom line.
That's an important topic for Tesla investors because the company still operates in the mainstream automotive business, where discounts, price wars, and other factors can easily hinder margins. Not only does Ferrari generate much higher margins at any level you choose to look, but those margins are much more stable than Tesla's and consistently rising.
This is a good segue into what drives Ferrari's margins.
2. "One fewer car ..." Another way Tesla can't match Ferrari is in the latter's brand image and pricing power, which help drive the previously mentioned lofty margins. Enzo Ferrari's famous mantra was to build "one fewer car than the market demands."
It's a simple concept that few can pull off, but Ferrari does it famously. While Tesla hopes to produce millions of vehicles for a mass market, the Italian automaker produces under 15,000 units a year, creating exclusivity and an emotional draw. It's why Ferrari is a lifestyle luxury brand, not a traditional automaker.
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Here's an example of how powerful the brand already is: The company spends nothing on advertising, essentially. Instead, the Scuderia Ferrari Formula 1 team is the engine that powers its marketing and reach. It's not all show and no-go, either, because racing technology filters down into its high-end models, helping support their sky-high price tags.
Ferrari's F80 drove a near $4 million price tag. Image source: Ferrari.
Another example of how different Tesla and Ferrari are is that the former still needs to fuel demand through price cuts at times, or with other incentives such as financing. Ferrari, on the other hand, won't even let you buy its limited-edition top-tier supercars unless you have already purchased its other vehicles in the past.
Buying a Ferrari takes a lot of money, but it's not all about that -- the company has to invite you into the club. These factors, among many more, make its brand and the pricing power nearly unmatched.
3. A different consumer base Many investors throw around the phrase "Ferrari is recession-proof," but to be fair, it's closer to "recession-resilient." Its buyers have ultra-high net worths and are thus highly insulated from traditional economic downturns, inflation, or moves in interest rates. They can afford multimillion-dollar hypercars even amid a global recession, and they give the company a much more stable business that avoids the auto industry's historical cyclicity.
The loyalty that the brand generates is as intriguing as anything else the company does. It even ranks its customers based on how many cars they currently own, how long they've owned them, and their participation in official Ferrari brand events. In return, only the most loyal multicar owners are invited to purchase extremely exclusive models, which are highly priced and sell out even before being publicly announced.
What it all means Ferrari is just a different animal, and while it shares the industry with mainstream automakers, they really operate in different worlds. It's evident in the company's lucrative margins that continue to rise, its powerful global brand and prestige that support extreme pricing without any discounts and incentives, and its supremely loyal consumer base.
Those are all things Tesla wants to generate one day, but right now, Ferrari is an excellent investment if you want to buy Tesla but are unsure about its future direction.
Don't call it a comeback. Tesla (TSLA +0.39%) just posted its strongest second quarter ever. The company delivered an incredible 480,126 vehicles in that time frame, a 25% jump from last year and a 34% increase from the first quarter of this year.
Deliveries far exceeded expectations. Tesla itself only expected roughly 406,000. Model 3 and Model Y led the charge, accounting for more than 467,000 deliveries.
One notable insight is that this is the first quarter since sales peaked in 2023 in which Tesla has reported year-over-year delivery growth.
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Tesla needed this strong quarter, as it is still trying to recover from both backlash against CEO Elon Musk and the loss of the federal EV tax credit. Tesla also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of storage products, a substantial increase from 9.6 GWh in the year-ago period.
What a good quarter means for investors One good quarter doesn't necessarily mean the struggles for EV manufacturers are over. Tesla has endured two sluggish years, and competition has only increased. EV demand in the U.S. is also muted. Global brands such as BYD and, domestically, Rivian and legacy automakers could eat into Tesla's market share both at home and abroad.
The strong quarter was partly driven by discounting, which suggests more quarters are needed to see whether this rebound will stick. Tesla also still bears the risk of Musk's reputation, which is a consideration if the colorful CEO decides to split his focus further or wade into various controversies.
Image source: The White House.
The real bull case is beyond cars In the long term, Tesla will need more than just its cars, which is why the company's energy storage division is so crucial. Tesla is focusing on scaling energy storage deployment, its Supercharger network, self-driving capabilities, and robotics. This diversification supports the bull case that Tesla still has plenty of room to grow.
Tesla's valuation already reflects the broader potential beyond just its automotive sector. The stock is still trading at a premium despite a 12% year-to-date price drop. The company's forward P/E ratio is nearly 180, while the trailing P/E is more than double that at 374.
For me, the most promising part of Tesla's narrative is its participation in the energy storage industry. This market is primed to explode over the next several years. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla's energy storage revenue fell, though the company attributes this to the timing of large deployments. Still, given the longer-term potential and the gradual rebound in EV demand, the company is well-positioned to succeed.
Again, much of Tesla's growth is already baked into the stock with a nearly $1.5 trillion market cap. Investors in Tesla will need patience and a longer time horizon to realize gains attributable to a booming energy industry and a rebounding EV market.
Tesla stock traded slightly higher in trading on Tuesday as investors assessed a series of price target increases from Wall Street analysts ahead of the electric vehicle maker's second-quarter earnings report later this month.
TSLA stock rose 0.14% to $395.30 in the session, while the S&P 500 gained 0.37% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13%.
The gains followed updated forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Wells Fargo after Tesla reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter vehicle deliveries.
Analysts lift price targets but maintain ratingsMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco increased his price target on Tesla to $417 from $415 while maintaining a Hold rating.
The analyst expects Tesla's stronger second-quarter deliveries to support quarterly results when the company reports earnings on July 22.
Tesla delivered about 480,000 vehicles during the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier and well above Wall Street's expectation of 406,000 deliveries.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy also raised his price target to $370 from $360 while keeping a Hold rating on the shares.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, one of Tesla's more bearish analysts, increased his target price to $130 from $125 while maintaining a Sell rating.
Langan said stronger deliveries could help Tesla post better-than-expected quarterly earnings but noted that higher costs for memory chips, copper and lithium could pressure profitability.
Despite the target price revisions, none of the analysts changed their overall investment recommendations.
Investors remain focused on Tesla's AI strategyWhile analysts adjusted their earnings expectations, investors continue to focus more on Tesla's artificial intelligence ambitions than on near-term financial performance.
The market is looking for updates on the commercialization of AI-powered humanoid robots and further expansion of Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi business rather than simply a quarterly earnings beat.
Tesla's AI initiatives are viewed as a key reason the company continues to trade at a valuation more commonly associated with technology companies than traditional automakers.
The company currently carries a market value of about $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis, compared with approximately $250 billion for Toyota Motor, the world's second-most valuable automaker.
Christopher Tsai, president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, argued that investors should evaluate companies based on their long-term value creation rather than near-term earnings.
He said in a MarketWatch interview, “If you look at SpaceX and say, ‘Oh, it’s selling at a crazy multiple,’ you might be making the classical error that these companies are increasingly investing so much now, depressing earnings now, to create more value later.”
Tsai added, “What you really should be thinking about is what’s the base-case scenario, what’s the bear case and what’s the bull case in say, five years. Based on that, you know, and this is how we think about it.”
He also highlighted Tesla's investment in technologies such as Dojo AI and Full Self Driving, saying, “These are really the companies at the forefront, and they’re going to create, in our opinion, so much value, and people are missing that because they’re just focused on the near term.”
At the same time, Tsai acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding AI investments.
He said, “The way we’re approaching this is to first be extremely selective as to what kinds of businesses we’re investing in. And to recognize the probability of success is low.”
Zipline is growing its drone delivery business in the U.S. and has hired former Tesla, Uber Eats and Waymo executives to help it scale up in new markets. The company is now making one drone delivery every thirty seconds, and has surpassed 2.5 million commercial deliveries to-date.
Tesla (TSLA +0.43%) and Meta Platforms (META +0.11%) are two of the stock market's largest technology companies, with similar-sized market caps of roughly $1.5 trillion and $1.7 trillion, respectively. Their high-profile CEOs, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, make both companies must-watch stories, especially as they stake their futures on artificial intelligence (AI).
That's where the similarities end. For Tesla, AI is the key to unlocking ambitious growth potential in autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics. Meta is fusing AI into its DNA and building sprawling AI data centers. But right now, the key difference between these companies lies in the underlying businesses that drive them.
Here's why investors should opt for Meta Platforms over Tesla right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tesla's transformation has a long road ahead Elon Musk is building Tesla around self-driving vehicles and humanoid robotics. Tesla launched Robotaxi, a ride-hailing service with self-driving vehicles, last year. The company is also developing Optimus, a humanoid robot that can serve as a robotic worker for enterprises and consumers. Musk believes that these two businesses can turn Tesla into a $25 trillion company and recently discontinued the Model S and Model X electric vehicles to focus on those goals.
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However, Robotaxi is only operating in a few cities, and Optimus might not even go on sale until the end of next year. It might take years for Robotaxi and Optimus to make a significant difference for Tesla, which still relies on EV sales for most of its revenue. Automotive manufacturing is a capital-intensive, low-margin business. As a result, Tesla trades at an eye-popping 190 times its 2026 earnings estimates.
Meta's AI tailwinds are already palpable Social media giant Meta Platforms makes its money from advertising to the 3.56 billion people who use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads each day. Meta is using AI to automate and optimize ads, and is enjoying tangible benefits. Meta's constant-currency revenue growth accelerated to 29% in the first quarter, up from 19% in the first quarter of 2025.
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Zuckerberg has outlined plans to continue building data centers for years to come. Meta is guiding for capital expenditures of up to $145 billion this year alone. The company could begin selling data center capacity to help monetize these investments, but that's an entirely new market for Meta, and the pressure will remain to justify this spending. The concerns have dragged on the stock, which currently trades at 20 times 2026 earnings estimates.
A better business today, and at a much better valuation Ultimately, Meta has a much higher floor than Tesla. If Mark Zuckerberg is right about Meta's AI plans, those investments could generate earnings for the foreseeable future. If things don't work out and Meta has to abandon that plan, investors still have a remarkably profitable and growing core business that should continue to drive earnings growth and spit out cash.
Investors might be waiting a while for Tesla to realize its potential and justify that high valuation. There's no guarantee that Tesla ever will, and the remaining core business just isn't nearly as compelling. That makes it difficult to justify buying Tesla over Meta at their respective valuations.
Until Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) merges with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction), Elon Musk fans are going to have a tough choice when it comes to which name is worth topping up at any given moment.
Tesla looks positioned to reward buyers heading into its July 22 earnings release. The setup is clear: Margins are expanding, cash is compounding and options desks are already positioned long into the earnings report.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) traded around $393.98 on July 13, still 10% below where it began the year. That discount, sitting on top of a fundamentally stronger operating base, is the trade.
The Margin Reset Is Real Q1 delivered a 17.78% EPS beat on $22.387 billion in revenue, up 15.78% year over year. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Operating income jumped 135.84% to $941 million, free cash flow surged 117.47% to $1.444 billion, and cash on hand climbed to $44.743 billion (+173.62% YoY). This is the operational foundation walking into July 22.
Software Is Now a Real P&L Line Services and Other revenue grew 42% YoY to $3.745 billion, driven by 1.28 million active FSD subscriptions, up 51% YoY. Unsupervised Robotaxi rides launched in Dallas and Houston, Cybercab entered pilot production at Gigafactory Texas, and Semi, Megapack 3 and Cybercab all remain on schedule for volume production in 2026.
Optimus lines at Fremont and Gigafactory Texas are designed for 10 million robots per year of capacity. High-margin software and AI are absorbing the delivery softness, and July 22 is where management gets to show it.
Positioning Is Already Bullish The full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.48. The July 17 expiration carries 414,976 calls of open interest versus 306,986 puts, and post-earnings July 24 call OI (50,530) still exceeds puts (37,575). Polymarket’s crowd, with a 75.2% accuracy rate on TSLA markets, prices an 87.5% probability of an up close today. Analyst consensus target is $424.01 with 23 Buy ratings.
Tesla Wins The Head-To-Head Look at the alternatives. Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) has never posted positive operating income; Tesla just generated $3.937 billion of operating cash flow in a single quarter, dwarfing Rivian’s entire market capitalization. Lucid (NADAQ:LCID) burns cash at a rate that makes its sub-$5 billion market cap a rounding error against Tesla’s $44.743 billion cash pile. Tesla stands alone with an FSD subscription base, a Robotaxi network and a humanoid roadmap. If you want exposure to autonomy, energy storage, and AI-adjacent hardware in one ticker, Tesla is the only US-listed vehicle.
The 12.38% YTD drawdown is your entry. The 21.1% automotive gross margin, 42% services growth, and 2026 volume-production catalysts are the thesis. The window before July 22 is where the setup matters most.
HomeMarketsNeed to KnowNeed to KnowChristopher Tsai says investors are missing out by not focusing on future earningsJuly 14, 2026, 7:08 a.m. ET
Investors might be overlooking SpaceX's value potential, says one money manager. Photo: Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesCharles Schwab strategists recently warned investors against putting their money into companies making growth promises that push out far into the future.
But successful value investing requires precisely that faith, according to the president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, Christopher Tsai. “If you look at SpaceX and say, ‘Oh, it’s selling at a crazy multiple,’ you might be making the classical error that these companies are increasingly investing so much now, depressing earnings now, to create more value later,” he told MarketWatch in a Monday interview.
Tesla’s Bullish Structure Faces an Earnings Test Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings next Wednesday, July 22, after the market closes. What do the charts for TSLA suggest about the trend and key support and resistance levels? Starting with the weekly chart, the uptrend line was recently validated with a fourth touch and a successful test of support.
A higher swing low of $368.60 was the result, further confirming the bullish trend structure of higher swing lows. Moreover, the level is now a key support level based on trend structure. This makes the $368.60 level an important area to monitor, as a successful hold would preserve the broader uptrend.
TSLA weekly chart shows rising trend channel intact. Source: TradingView A drop below that level would signal a reversal of the uptrend and confirm a break below dynamic support at the uptrend line. That could lead to further selling and signs of weakness. The 100-week moving average near $358.66 and rising helps define dynamic support along with the uptrend line. Price was clearly rejected to the upside near that average during the formation of a higher swing low of $337.24 in April. Therefore, it could mark strong support again. A failure of this support zone would weaken the bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
Breakout Attempt Awaits Confirmation TSLA has attempted to sustain a long-term bullish breakout above the top of a large basing pattern several times since December 2024. The original top of the base at $414.50 was broken to the upside for a third attempt in May of this year before a lower swing high was established at $453.40, leading to a retracement of the prior upswing.
TSLA daily chart shows potential completion of pullback. Source: TradingView Resistance Level Holds the Key to Renewed Momentum Given the sustained rising trend channel structure, an eventual resolution is likely to be to the upside unless key support levels are broken. A recent lower swing high of $432.86 marks a key trend structure level, as a sustained rally above that level will signal a reversal of the short-term decline and a breakout above the downtrend line. Those signs of strength would indicate a likely continuation of the developing bullish trend. Until then, TSLA remains in a consolidation phase within the broader uptrend, with support holding the key to maintaining the bullish outlook.
If you’d like to know more about technical analysis and how traders use it, please visit our educational area.
Key Takeaways Tesla stock historically moves in cycles of innovation.A new suite of multi-decade catalysts looms. As the AI boom roars, Tesla Energy will cash in. Catalysts: The Spark that Unleashes Large Stock AdvancesStocks don’t move because they are “cheap” or they have done well in the past. Instead, stocks move on new information and expectations about the future, prompting Wall Street investors to reassess their value. The most common catalysts come in the form of earnings beat or bullish forward guidance that exceeds Wall Street expectations. However, often the most potent catalysts come in the form of a new, innovative product announcement. For instance, Apple ((AAPL - Free Report) ) announced the iPhone in January 2007. By the time the product was released in June 2007, Apple shares had already gained 50% as investors correctly began to discount the bullish impact the breakthrough product would have on the company’s earnings.
Elon Musk: This Generation’s DisruptorTesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ), under the direction of CEO Elon Musk, is the perfect example of a disruptive growth stock. Through bold risk-taking, vision, and engineering, Elon Musk transformed Tesla from an obscure electric vehicle startup into the largest automaker in the world (by market cap). Challenging an industry that had not seen a successful startup in more than a century wasn’t a walk in the park. Musk innovated at every step of the way, leveraging his Silicon Valley background and producing never-before-seen technology that reached far beyond EVs. Here is a list of the game-changing products Elon Musk has unveiled since 2006:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla Stock Performance Hasn’t Been in a Straight LineFor Elon Musk, the success hasn’t come in a straight line. Throughout Tesla’s 16-year history as a public company, Tesla and Elon Musk have faced SEC lawsuits, political backlash, a plethora of short sellers, and constant doubt (which continues today). That said, any unbiased investor must acknowledge the blatant success before them. Since going public, Tesla’s stock performance has been breathtaking. TSLA shares have gained ground in 14 of the 16 years it’s been public, accumulating monster gains of some 36,000% along the way.
Although Tesla’s long-term performance is undeniable, its intermediate-term performance has been lackluster. TSLA shares are essentially where they were in late 2021 amid slowed growth, shrinking margins, expired tax credits, and Elon Musk’s political controversies. Before investors write off Tesla as a “has-been”, it’s worth studying its history. The current lackluster price action is not the first time investors have faced a frustrating multi-year price consolidation. Tesla shares were dead money from the mid-2010 IPO until 2013 as the company struggled to become profitable, gain investor attention, and prove the EV concept. Next, from ~2014 to ~2020, Tesla shares were essentially flat as some investors took chips off the table after the massive IPO move. What investors must understand is that long, frustrating share price consolidations are the norm for Tesla. In other words, Tesla has always been a stock that delivers massive gains in bursts before consolidating. Investors should also understand that these consolidations serve a purpose. Frustrating stock returns breed fear, uncertainty, and doubt. That said, Elon Musk and his team never stop innovating.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Latest Delivery Numbers ImpressTesla's latest delivery numbers confirm that the EV maker has officially turned around its legacy business. The 480,000 global vehicle deliveries mark the best Q2 ever. What makes the delivery number even more impressive is that Tesla beat expectations and surpassed its prior quarter results despite the end of the EV tax credit last year. Better yet, Europe, which has been an especially sore spot for Tesla EV sales, has turned the corner. Tesla registrations rose in several European markets in June
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wall Street Warms Up to OptimusAccording to a recent research report from Nomura, Tesla has raised the annualized production capacity target for its Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot at the Fremont plant to roughly 70,000 units, using factory space repurposed from older vehicle assembly lines. Looking ahead, Tesla plans to add another 70,000 units of capacity at its Austin facility by 2028. These near-term expansions are laying the groundwork for a highly ambitious, long-term capacity target of 1.5 million units. The Optimus timeline is bullish for Tesla. CEO Elon Musk has long predicted that Optimus will eventually become the company’s best-selling product.
Tesla Robotaxi is ScalingAfter many delays, Tesla’s highly anticipated robotaxi business is finally beginning to scale. Initially launched in Austin in 2025 with safety supervisors, Tesla has officially crossed the milestone of deploying unsupervised robotaxis (no driver or safety monitor inside the vehicle). Recently, Tesla has expanded to other markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Miami. Meanwhile, Tesla’s low-cost Cybercab has been spotted in public testing. Because of its unique “unboxed” manufacturing process, Tesla expects to efficiently scale Cybercab to millions of units. The Cybercab will give Tesla a huge cost advantage over competitors like Waymo.
Long-time Tesla investor and bull Cathie Wood believes that robotaxis will be “Elon’s gift to patient Tesla shareholders.” Wood expects the autonomous taxi market to scale from $1B today to $10T over the next 5-10 years. Additionally, Wood expects that Tesla’s costs will be 50% lower than Waymo’s by the end of the decade.
FSD to Have Wider Reach, Generate More RevenueElon Musk just announced that after a complex transition, vehicles built between 2019 and 2023 will be able to access Tesla’s modern Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. In other words, if you drive an older Tesla, your car will continue to get “smarter” via optimized “Lite” neural networks for supervised driving. This will allow Tesla to capture previously unrealized FSD subscription revenue from its older models. Even before this news, Tesla FSD was scaling nicely:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Tesla Energy is on FireMcKinsey predicts that U.S. electricity demand will soar by ~50% by 2050. Although solar energy production requires higher start-up capital than coal, it is zero-emission, and long-term generation costs are far lower. The latest energy production data tells the story. Solar energy accounted for 12.8% of U.S. electricity in May, surpassing coal (12.2%) for the first time in history. While low-cost natural gas remains the dominant electricity source (~37%), solar is catching up. In fact, solar and battery storage accounted for a staggering 91% of U.S. power capacity installed in Q1 2026. In other words, Tesla’s red-hot energy business has a long runway that is just gaining momentum.
Image Source: Ember
Elon Musk Announces TeraFab ProjectElon Musk unveiled TeraFab in March 2026, a joint initiative between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI aimed at producing advanced semiconductor chips at an unprecedented scale. The project involves a planned $20 billion factory in Austin, Texas, designed to supply chips for Tesla vehicles and SpaceX orbital data centers. Recently, Tesla announced its first big hire for its TeraFab project, Gary Jiang. Jiang is a semiconductor manufacturing legend who spent 18 years at Intel ((INTC - Free Report) ). The Jiang hire is another example of how Tesla is building a flurry of potential new non-EV businesses that could help drive the stock for decades to come.
Bottom Line
While Tesla’s price action has been lackluster lately, history proves that these frustrating lulls are often the quiet before the storm. The latest delivery numbers prove that Tesla’s EV business has turned the corner. Meanwhile, a plethora of upcoming catalysts set up the next bull run.
In the latest trading session, Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) closed at $394.76, marking a -3.19% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.79%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.26%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 1.55%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the electric car maker had gained 0.33% lagged the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.28%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Tesla in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on July 22, 2026. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $0.47, indicating a 17.5% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $24.73 billion, up 9.95% from the prior-year quarter.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $2.11 per share and a revenue of $102.02 billion, signifying shifts of +27.11% and +7.59%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Tesla. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 9.51% higher. Tesla is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at its valuation, Tesla is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 193.31. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.31.
One should further note that TSLA currently holds a PEG ratio of 9.18. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. Automotive - Domestic stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.99 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 69, placing it within the top 29% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Following SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, Wall Street's attention has shifted to the next big play — a rumored Tesla-SpaceX megamerger. With both companies increasingly sharing engineers and resources, a deal might be a question of when, not if.
Tesla stock TSLA fell more than 3% on Monday as investors continued to wait for further progress in the company's artificial intelligence initiatives.
The electric-vehicle maker's stock traded at $393.56 during Monday's session.
The broader market also came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 132 points, or 0.3%.
Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving.”
Tesla investors have increasingly focused on the company's artificial intelligence strategy, particularly the rollout of its autonomous robotaxi service and the commercialization of its Optimus humanoid robot.
The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. While the launch generated significant attention, the expansion has progressed gradually.
The service now operates in several cities but remains substantially smaller than Alphabet's Waymo.
Tesla has yet to begin commercial sales of Optimus, although it is preparing manufacturing capacity for the humanoid robot.
On Friday, the company released a video showing the decommissioning of the Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California, facility.
According to Tesla, the process of removing tooling and infrastructure took less than 50 days, allowing the factory to prepare for Optimus production while continuing to manufacture Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
Tesla announced in January that it would discontinue production of the Model S and Model X to repurpose manufacturing capacity for robots. Chief Executive Elon Musk has described humanoid robots as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
Despite those plans, investors continue to await updates on the latest version of Optimus as competing robotics companies.
Tesla is expected to provide additional updates on Optimus when it reports second-quarter earnings on July 22.
Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $375 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company's stronger-than-expected second-quarter automotive deliveries.
Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, including 467,800 Model 3 and Model Y units, exceeding the consensus estimate of around 410,000 vehicles.
Following the delivery results, Jefferies increased its second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes estimate to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin.
The firm also increased its automotive revenue forecast to $21 billion, including $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million in leasing revenue.
Jefferies expects total group revenue of $28.7 billion and group EBIT of $1.45 billion for the quarter.
Earlier this month, RBC Capital raised its price target on Tesla to $500 from $475, incorporating a premium tied to a potential merger with SpaceX while also updating its standalone valuation for the automaker.
Analyst Tom Narayan said the revised target reflects "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports."
According to RBC, the most likely transaction structure would involve an all-stock acquisition in which SpaceX acquires Tesla at a 20% to 30% premium.
The firm said the rationale centers on operational collaboration, including proprietary chip manufacturing, Megapacks for data center energy requirements, and joint AI training and fleet management services.
RBC also said Tesla shareholders would likely require a premium because Musk "would control 50%+ of a combined entity, well above the ~20% stake he currently holds in Tesla."
Excluding any potential SpaceX acquisition premium, RBC valued Tesla at $435 per share.
Within that valuation, Narayan increased the firm's robotaxi segment valuation by 20%, citing a higher forecast for the global robotaxi fleet and describing the business as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.
SpaceX Bear Stays BearishNoble has described himself as one of the biggest bears on the SpaceX IPO. Weeks after the company’s public debut, he remains firmly bearish.
"SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today’s price are about to start selling their shares to you," he wrote in a recent Substack post.
Noble highlights the fact that SpaceX has never turned a profit in its history and lost around $5 billion last year.
"At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x," he wrote. "Shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print."
‘Biggest Misallocation’Noble, who previously ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund, said he has watched every disaster since being Lynch’s auto analyst in 1981.
"I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative."
The investor emphasized SpaceX’s lack of profits and its limited initial float, which helped fuel demand from investors drawn to the company’s well-known name.
When it comes to hype, Noble can’t help but compare SpaceX to another Elon-Musk led company, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).
"Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it."
SpaceX Stock Hits New LowsOn Monday, SpaceX stock hit new lows since going public, with shares trading as low as $137.68.
The stock was priced at $135 at the IPO before opening for trade at $150. Investors who bought in at the IPO are still profitable, but potentially not for long.
Other investors who bought in after shares went public are now down on their investment unless they were able to sell in the first days of the space stock being public.
Analysts have come out with price targets on SpaceX stock with many pointing to the potential long-term valuation and high addressable markets for the company.
Others like Noble have been quick to point out the lack of profits and financials to justify the large share price and multiples. A lack of profits could keep SpaceX from being in the S&P 500 for years, with the index not changing its rules to include the stock.
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SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered 480,126 vehicles, exceeding consensus by 18%, while deliveries outpaced production, signaling healthy inventory reduction ahead of earnings.Consecutive EPS surprises, including a 17.15% Q1 beat, alongside consistent revenue outperformance have strengthened confidence in Tesla's near-term fundamentals.Analysts continue raising TSLA forecasts, with Q2 EPS estimates up 8.89% and revenue expectations climbing 4.8% over the past month.Consensus projects newer vehicle deliveries to surge 546% by FY30, supporting a higher-margin product mix beyond the mature Model 3/Y lineup.Robotaxi expansion, regulatory scrutiny, and widely dispersed earnings estimates remain key TSLA risks that could challenge Tesla's long-term valuation assumptions. LPETTET/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Investment Thesis The market has finally started to catch up with what has been happening at Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). While it was skeptical about the stock during the last few months due to
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