Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

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Morning Brew Daily’s July segment framed the U.S. electric vehicle industry in stark terms. They argued that Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), once valued at $91 billion, is now worth just $2.87 billion, while Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) has fallen from a peak near $150 billion to roughly $25 billion. The guest analyst on the show argued that both pure-play startups are “one boardroom decision at another company away” from collapse, and that neither company is expected to turn cash flow positive before 2030. The numbers back the framing.

Lucid: A Saudi-Funded Life Raft Lucid closed at $7.36 on July 17, leaving the stock down 76.41% over the past year and 97.99% below its November 2021 level. Revenue is scaling. Losses are scaling faster. Q4 2025 revenue reached $522.73 million, while deliveries rose 72% year over year to 5,345 vehicles. The company reported a GAAP net loss of approximately $814 million and negative free cash flow of $1.24 billion for the quarter. For the full year 2025, revenue totaled $1.35 billion, while free cash flow was negative $3.8 billion.

Cost of revenue exceeded revenue in every quarter of 2025, highlighting a persistent gross-margin problem rather than merely a scale challenge. Cash and cash equivalents declined to $997.83 million at year-end, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund expanded Lucid’s term loan facility to approximately $2.0 billion. CEO Marc Winterhoff characterized 2025 in the Q4 8-K as a year of “execution and strategy adjustment.”

Rivian: Volkswagen, Uber, and the DOE Are the Backstop With Rivian, Q1 2026 revenue came in at $1.38 billion, while free cash flow was negative $1.08 billion. Cash declined from $4.81 billion in Q2 2025 to $2.85 billion in the latest reported period. Regulatory credit revenue fell from $299 million in Q4 2024 to $29 million in Q4 2025, reducing a previously meaningful source of high-margin income.

The company’s remaining lifelines are Volkswagen’s $1 billion equity infusion, Uber’s potential $1.25 billion commitment toward a 50,000-vehicle autonomous R2 fleet, and a $4.5 billion Department of Energy loan for its Georgia facility.

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Legacy Detroit: Ford and Stellantis Take the Write-Downs Ford (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) recorded $10.7 billion in Model e-related impairments and EV program cancellations in Q4 2025 and is guiding to a FY2026 Model e loss of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. CEO Jim Farley characterized the moves as “difficult but critical strategic decisions” intended to support Ford’s target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. Despite the EV restructuring, Ford’s stock is up 33.85% over the past year.

Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) took a larger hit, recording $25.41 billion in unusual charges in Q4 2025 and a $22.33 billion net loss for FY2025. CEO Antonio Filosa acknowledged in the company’s annual filing that the results reflected “the cost of overestimating the pace of the energy transition.”

Tesla: Dominant but Distracted Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains the segment leader, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.2 trillion. FY2025 revenue declined to $94.83 billion, while Q4 2025 deliveries fell 16% year over year to 418,227 vehicles. Prediction-market traders had assigned high odds that Tesla would not achieve certain near-term AI milestones, including a public California robotaxi launch and an Optimus release by year-end, reinforcing the show’s portrayal of a company shifting toward humanoid robotics and autonomy while its core vehicle business faces slowing growth.

The Affordability Hail Mary U.S. EV sales are up 15% year to date, aided by gas prices that peaked at $4.50 per gallon in May before easing to $3.85 in mid-July. Ford’s planned $30,000 EV pickup and Bezos-backed Slate Auto’s $25,000 bare-bones truck signal the industry’s pivot toward affordability. Whether that reset arrives before more balance sheets buckle is the question hanging over the sector.

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After the market close on July 20, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.08%) said it will release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.

The report will coincide with SpaceX's first earnings call with analysts as a public company and comes at a pivotal time, with the stock hovering near its lowest point since its June 12 initial public offering (IPO). As of the market close on July 21, SpaceX shares are down 40% from its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16.

Here's what investors should look for when SpaceX reports and if the growth stock is a buy now.

Image source: Getty Images.

Welcome to the public stage Aug. 4 will be Elon Musk's first earnings call as chief executive officer of a company that isn't Tesla (TSLA +2.53%). Investors should tune in to see how the earnings call is conducted, whether its format differs from Tesla's, and whether it leans more on SpaceX's other executives than on Musk.

It would also be worth paying attention to how SpaceX releases supplemental materials, whether it includes useful information in its presentation decks and earnings release, or whether investors will need to dig for details in its quarterly 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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SpaceX's Model 3 moment Since 2023, SpaceX has been responsible for launching more than 80% of the world's mass put into orbit. The bulk of that mass has come from SpaceX's Starlink network of low earth orbit broadband and mobile satellites.

With 9,600 Starlink satellites in orbit as of March 31 and 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, Starlink is instrumental to SpaceX's revenue and free cash flow growth. SpaceX has a mix of consumer and enterprise solutions. As it has added more customers, its revenue per user has declined. So investors should tune in to SpaceX's plans to expand Starlink and whether its pricing model will change as it improves connectivity.

In its May 20 Form S-1 IPO filing with the SEC, SpaceX said it expects to begin deploying its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites on Starship launchers in the second half of 2026, and it is on schedule to do so. SpaceX planned to launch its 13th Starship test flight on July 16 but scrubbed it and rescheduled it for July 23. Part of the payload includes 20 Starlink V3 satellites.

Compared to V2 satellites, V3 will offer a 10-fold improvement in downlink capacity and a 22-fold increase in uplink capacity -- adding to Starlink's competitive advantages.

All told, Starlink could prove to be as important to SpaceX as the Model 3 was to Tesla. The Model 3 provided a high-volume electric vehicle at a competitive price, vaulting Tesla from a struggling company to a cash cow. Without Model 3, Tesla would have lacked the resources needed to expand its robotaxi fleet and the Optimus line of humanoid robots.

AI satellites Scaling Starlink is a bold endeavor in and of itself. But SpaceX has far more ambitious plans, namely, deploying millions of artificial intelligence (AI) compute satellites in space.

SpaceX's February 2026 acquisition of xAI is instrumental in its AI compute constellation plans because it effectively gives SpaceX a major internal customer and a sandbox for testing satellite performance.

What's more, SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla are collaborating on the Terafab facility in Texas to mass-produce AI chips, enabling these companies to secure their own compute rather than relying on other suppliers. SpaceX is also building a factory of more than 11-million-square feet in Texas called Gigafactory, which will handle end-to-end production of AI satellites -- from solar panels to the AI compute modules.

These projects will be incredibly costly, take years to scale, and have no clear timeline for profitability. SpaceX's earnings call should provide investors with updates on these projects.

A potential merger with Tesla With SpaceX now public, some folks are speculating that it's only a matter of time before Tesla and SpaceX attempt to merge. After all, SpaceX bought xAI even though there were several valid reasons Tesla could have bought it instead. Tesla is a major customer of xAI, with xAI playing a role in Tesla's robotics, automotive vehicles, and energy storage projects.

A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would make Terafab a unified project under one umbrella rather than a partnership. And Tesla may be able to assist SpaceX with its energy storage needs.

Investors will likely be looking for insight on the SpaceX earnings call about its considerations for a merger with Tesla or why it may downplay merger speculation. Even if SpaceX and Tesla shareholders were vote to approve a merger, it would still face intense regulatory scrutiny.

SpaceX has a lot to prove Aug. 4 also is a critical day for SpaceX investors because it opens the door to a major share unlocking just two days later, letting early investors who were barred from selling after the IPO dispose of shares on public markets.

So far, SpaceX has been a tale of insatiable investor euphoria that briefly made it worth more than Amazon and Microsoft, only to have it fall as investors questioned its viability and path to profitability.

SpaceX has done an excellent job outlining a roadmap that features bold plans for AI compute satellites, lunar economies, colonies on Mars, and interplanetary travel. But SpaceX must fill the gaps in that roadmap before the stock becomes a reasonable buy for long-term investors.

Key Takeaways Analysts expect Tesla to report Q2 EPS of $0.50.The options market is implying a 6% post-EPS move.Energy and future tech timelines will be important clues for investors to observe. Tesla Q2 EarningsZacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ) will report earnings on second quarter earnings results on Wednesday, July 22, after the equity market close. Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates predict that Tesla will earn $0.50 for Q2, up from the $0.41 the company earning in Q1.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla’s Recent EPS HistoryTesla’s recent earnings track record has been spotty to say the least. The EV maker has missed Zacks Consensus Estimates in 6 of the past 10 quarters.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Nevertheless, Tesla is exhibiting some recent signs of a turn around. Over the past two quarters Tesla has beaten Wall Street estimates by double digits and has an average EPS surprise of 5.48% over the past four.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

TSLA Implied Post-EPS MoveThe options market is currently pricing in a rather subdued post-EPS move of +/- $24 or 6%.

The Legacy EV Business: Volume vs. MarginsAlthough most investors own Tesla shares because they are betting on future products such as the Optimus humanoid robot and robotaxi, it’s electric vehicle business still comprises the lion’s share (~85%) of its total revenues. Last month, Tesla delivered a spectacular deliver beat when it reported ~480k vehicles for Q2. The 480K delivery number trounced Wall Street estimates of 406k and represented a 25% year-over-year increase.

However, it’s important that investors do not view the delivery number in a vacuum. Amid a sunsetting of the federal EV tax credits and a slowing EV market Tesla has offered generous promotional financing and has slashed prices in key markets such as China and Europe. The question for investors is “Will increased EV sales volumes supersede incentives or will deep discounts erode profit margins?”

Tesla EnergyTesla’s Energy business continues to be a consistent bright spot for the company. Deployments soared 40% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding its energy business. SunRun ((RUN - Free Report) ) and TSLA announced a 16GW distributed energy pact targeting utilities and data center operators. Additionally, Tesla brough the largest lithium refinery in the U.S. online earlier this year. While growth will likely continue, investors will be watching to see if CAPEX stabilizes in this segment.

Future Product TimelinesTesla CEO Elon Musk has a reputation for setting extremely aggressive (and sometimes unrealistic) timelines. While these optimistic timelines can lead to increased productivity, they have been a thorn in the side of Wall Street investors, who are often hyper focused on quarterly results as opposed to long-term results. As a result, investors will want to see progress on Tesla’s Robotaxi & Cybercab commercialization, its FSD adoption rates, and Optimus and AI Compute expansion.

Bottom Line

Tesla’s Q2 EPS will answer important questions about the company’s legacy EV business, energy growth, and future product timelines. If strong delivery volumes can offset incentives and Elon Musk delivers tangible updates on autonomous tech, Tesla shares could finally get the spark they need.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.

Tesla Q2 Earnings EstimatesAnalysts expect Tesla to report second-quarter revenue of $25.24 billion, up from $22.50 billion in last year’s second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in four straight quarters and in five of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Tesla to report second-quarter earnings per share of 44 cents, up from 40 cents per share in last year’s second quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in four of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are SayingTesla investors are looking for second-quarter results to show signs of improvement with the stock one of the worst performing Magnificent Seven stocks in 2026, Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

"Shareholders are hopeful this quarter will be the one that helps turn things around. Shares have traded lower after three of the last four reports with an average loss of -5% over that time," Woods said.

The market expert says AI will be the top thing on the mind of Tesla investors for the earnings report.

"Will there be updates surrounding robotaxis, Full Self-Driving, Cybercab production, and the Optimus robot as Telsa continues its transition from an automaker to an AI and robotics story?"

For the automotive part of the business, Woods said investors should watch margins closely to see if they stabilize after pricing pressure in recent quarters and to see if the core segment can help produce the cash needed to fund growth initiatives.

Woods said one negative reaction to the earnings report could send the stock back to April lows around $340. If investors react positively, a nice pop could take shares to the resistance at the 200-day moving average around $417, Woods added.

"A strong rebound may hit major resistance near $420. Seeing it is one of Elon Musk’s favorite numbers, it may need to eclipse this mark before the strongest bullish case can be made to own shares."

Deepwater Management Managing Partner Gene Munster says investors will be watching for higher capex, automotive gross margins, an update on the robotaxi rollout and an update on the Cybercab production ramp.

"The bottom line is the long-term growth story is intact," Munster said in a blog post.

The market expert doesn’t expect any big updates on robotaxis, Cybercab, FSD or Optimus. Munster said he expects one minor update to be that Cybercab production ramp to shift from late 2026 to the first half of 2027.

"I believe Elon will reiterate that everything is moving in the right direction."

Here are recent analyst ratings on Tesla stock and their price targets:

GLJ Research: Reiterated Sell rating, price target $24.86 Morgan Stanley: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $415 to $417 Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $360 to $370 Wells Fargo: Maintained Underweight rating, raised price target from $125 to $130 Key Items to WatchTesla already reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year. The total beat a Street estimate of 406,000.

Munster previously attributed some of the outperformance to higher gas prices and increased demand for electric vehicles. Investors and analysts will be watching to see if management says this was the case and if it bodes well for future quarters with ongoing Middle East tension.

Munster’s guess that the Cybercab production ramp could be pushed back is an item to watch, as it could spook investors. Tesla previously said it was on track for "this year" for both Cybercab and Tesla Semi.

Investors also want an update on Optimus, which is said to be one of the company’s biggest catalysts ever and the reason why Tesla stopped selling several vehicle models to get factories ready for production.

Tesla Stock Price ActionTesla stock was up 2.5% to $378.93 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.82 to $498.82. Tesla stock is down 13.3% year-to-date in 2026, with shares near a three-month low.

Photo: TY Lim / Shutterstock

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In Brief

Posted:

11:05 AM PDT · July 21, 2026

Image Credits:Tim Goessman / Bloomberg / Getty Images Tesla has brought an unspecified number of its unsupervised Model Y SUVs to Orlando and Tampa, just one day ahead of the company’s scheduled second-quarter earnings call. That marks the third city in Florida where Tesla is trialing its nascent robotaxi service, following a small launch in Miami a few weeks ago.

The two new cities appear to have fairly small operational areas, and Tesla did not offer any further details about the launch. As some fans have noticed, Tesla announced autonomous fleets in Dallas and Houston before its first-quarter earnings release but has yet to scale those operations. The company disbanded its press office years ago.

Tesla has taken a far slower approach to standing up a commercial robotaxi service than it has promised investors. CEO Elon Musk, for instance, said repeatedly that Tesla’s robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025.

Musk offered more metered comments earlier this year on Tesla’s first-quarter call. But the company may get a big lift from the Trump administration, as last month the Department of Transportation proposed a rule change that would no longer require brake pedals be built into cars that are designed to be autonomous. If adopted, that could clear the way for Tesla to try and deploy the dozens of two-seater Cybercabs that it has been staging in cities across the country.

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At $369.57, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) looks overvalued, because the multiple asks investors to underwrite three uninvented businesses while the core auto operation decelerates. With Q2 results imminent, the gap between narrative and accounting has rarely been wider.

Tesla still earns most of its money making electric vehicles, with a growing energy storage arm and fast-scaling services including Full Self-Driving subscriptions. The story running the stock, however, is Robotaxi, Optimus, and in-house AI silicon. Shares are down 17.82% year to date and sit below both the 50-day ($409.80) and 200-day ($417.05) moving averages, well off the 52-week high of $498.83.

Why the Margin Recovery Could Reignite the Story Q1 2026 delivered the operational turn bulls have been waiting for. EPS came in at $0.41 versus $0.3592 expected, revenue grew 15.78% year over year, and automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2%. Services revenue jumped 42%, and FSD paid subscribers reached roughly 1.3 million, up 51% year over year.

The balance sheet remains a fortress at $44.7 billion in cash against modest debt, and prediction markets assign an 80% probability of another earnings beat on July 22. Management believes Optimus will be “the biggest product ever”, and if even a fraction of that optionality clears, today’s price will look cheap.

Why the Accounting Refuses to Justify the Multiple Strip out the speculative narratives and the fundamentals are those of an increasingly commoditized auto manufacturer. FY2025 net income fell 46.79%, Q4 deliveries dropped 16% to 418,227 units, and regulatory credits keep shrinking. Operating expenses grew 37% year over year in Q1 on AI spend and CEO stock-based comp.

Valuation sits at 346 trailing P/E and 167 forward P/E, with a PEG of 5 and EV/EBITDA of 116. Prediction markets price Optimus release by year-end at just 16%, California robotaxi at 18.5%, and Robovan orders at 7%. CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided to over $25 billion of CapEx and negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.

Why Patience Might Beat Conviction Either Way The Hold argument rests on catalyst density. Q2 deliveries returned to growth, an EU FSD expansion is progressing, and AI5 tape-out cleared in April. Analyst consensus splits 23 Buy/Strong Buy, 18 Hold, and 6 Sell/Strong Sell across 47 shops, defining an unresolved debate.

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Musk conceded Optimus production this year is “impossible to predict” and Robotaxi revenue will not be “super material this year”. Waiting one or two prints for hard Optimus unit economics, Robotaxi safety data, and clarity on AI CapEx payback lets investors avoid paying peak narrative premium ahead of proof.

What the Tape and the Street Actually Say Shares currently trade near $369.57 against an average analyst price target of $425.22, implying roughly 15% upside from a pool of 47 analysts. Targets are one data point among many.

Year to date, TSLA is down 17.82% while the S&P 500 is up 8.82%. Over one year, TSLA is up 12.11% versus 18.25% for the index. Prediction markets give the stock only a 48% chance of closing July above $370.

Why $370 Looks Stretched At $370, Tesla is a Sell.

The path to further downside is straightforward. Consensus already models roughly $27.6 billion in Q2 revenue and $1.27 billion in net income, and CapEx guidance points to negative free cash flow into 2027. If Q2 confirms an earnings beat but defers Optimus unit economics and California robotaxi timing, the multiple has room to compress toward the forward P/E of 167, still egregious but painful from here.

Likely triggers over the next two quarters are further regulatory credit erosion, a fifth consecutive quarter of operating expense growth above 30%, and continued inventory build from the current 27 days of supply. A hard Optimus production milestone, an approved California robotaxi permit, or genuine FSD margin disclosure would invalidate the thesis.

The core problem is that owners at $370 are paying an enterprise software multiple for a business currently generating auto-manufacturer margins, and Musk himself will not commit to when that changes. At current levels, the risk/reward skews unfavorably.

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) heads into its Q2 2026 earnings report tomorrow as the undisputed laggard of the Magnificent 7. Shares are down 17.82% year to date, badly trailing every other name in the cohort. Our proprietary model says the setup is more constructive than the tape suggests.

Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for Tesla The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $428.08, implying 15.83% upside from the current $369.57 quote. Our recommendation is buy.

The rating reflects a re-rating pathway from expanding automotive margins, an accelerating Services and Other line, and imminent product catalysts in Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus. Q2 is the near-term trigger; the multi-year AI thesis is the structural driver.

Metric Value Current Price $369.57 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $428.08 Upside 15.83% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Why Tesla Has Been the Mag 7 Anchor in 2026 Tesla has slid 6.38% in the past week and 7.72% in the past month, sitting well below the 52-week high of $498.83 hit late last year.

In Q1 2026, Tesla reported revenue of $22.387 billion, up 15.78% YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3481 estimate, a 17.78% beat. Automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2% from a year earlier, and Services and Other revenue jumped 42% to $3.745 billion on 1.28 million FSD subscriptions. Q2 reports July 22 after the close.

The Case for the Bull Scenario Our bull scenario gets Tesla to $487.11 within twelve months, a 31.81% total return. Cybercab volume production at Giga Texas, Tesla Semi volume production, Megapack 3, and the Optimus Fremont line all hit in 2026. FSD subscriptions rose 51% YoY, and Netherlands approval opens the EU.

Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 77.5% probability of a Q2 EPS beat. On 7investing’s AI Investor Podcast, Simon Erickson framed a robotaxi-success DCF at $700 per share, arguing Tesla “can probably double again” if regulators cooperate.

What Could Go Wrong The bear scenario lands at $375.64, barely above today’s price. TSLA trades at 346 trailing earnings and 167 forward. Q1 flagged real headwinds: energy revenue fell 12% YoY, inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 22, regulatory credits are declining, and digital asset losses hit $222 million. Opex is up 37% YoY.

Bulls counter that opex growth reflects deliberate AI R&D and the CEO award SBC, and that $1.95 billion in quarterly R&D is the price of buying Optimus and Robotaxi optionality. Polymarket assigns just a 16% chance of an Optimus release by year-end, so expectations there are already reset lower.

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How Tesla Stacks Up Against GM and Rivian General Motors (NYSE:GM) is the traditional-auto counterpoint. GM trades at a P/E near 25 on $185 billion in 2025 revenue, with Q1 2026 EPS of $3.70 beating the $2.62 consensus. GM prints real cash today; Tesla is priced on cash it will earn a decade out. That contrast is why our 24/7 Wall St. price target applies a mega-cap dampener rather than pure growth multiples.

Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is the pure-play EV comp on the other extreme. Rivian’s Q1 2026 revenue was $1.381 billion on 10,365 deliveries, with negative adjusted EBITDA of -$472 million. Rivian has no P/E because it lacks earnings.

Between GM’s 25 P/E and Rivian’s negative one, Tesla’s 167 forward P/E reflects the market pricing a hybrid auto-plus-AI outcome. That framing makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $428.08 look reasonable.

The Setup Ahead of Q2 Earnings The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $428.08, the call is buy, and our confidence is 90%. The tipping factor is margin recovery: automotive gross margin snapping back to 21.1% resets the earnings math.

The bullish case strengthens if Q2 confirms the margin trajectory and FSD subscription growth holds above 40% YoY. The bearish case gains ground if energy revenue slips again and inventory days climb further.

Tesla Price Projection 2026 to 2030 Our base case implies a 9.94% annualized return to $593.66 by 2031.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $428 2027 $470 2028 $515 2029 $555 2030 $590 These projections assume Tesla executes on Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus ramps while sustaining FSD adoption. Meaningful upside or downside could emerge from Robotaxi geographic expansion or delayed Optimus commercialization.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Tesla TSLA is set to report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with investors expected to focus less on the company's financial results and more on Chief Executive Elon Musk's outlook for autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence.

Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings of about 54 cents per share on revenue of $27.4 billion for the second quarter, according to FactSet.

A year earlier, the company reported earnings of 40 cents per share on revenue of $22.5 billion.

Tesla shares rose around 3.7% on Tuesday ahead of the earnings release as investors positioned for what is expected to be a closely watched update on the company's long-term growth strategy.

The move today comes as Tesla expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year before expanding to Dallas and Houston earlier this year and Miami this month.

The company has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco Bay Area.

Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets.

Musk has responded by saying the company is deliberately taking a cautious approach, arguing that rigorous safety testing—not demand or technology—is the primary constraint on faster deployment.

Analysts expect year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings following stronger vehicle deliveries during the quarter.

Tesla delivered about 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier.

Higher oil prices, buyer incentives, and reduced competition from traditional automakers following the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit in September contributed to the increase in sales.

Despite the anticipated improvement in Tesla's automotive business, analysts say the company's valuation is increasingly tied to its artificial intelligence initiatives rather than its core vehicle operations.

Robotaxis and Optimus remain key focusMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said investors are likely to pay closer attention to updates on Tesla's robotaxi service and Optimus humanoid robot than to the company's quarterly financial performance.

“Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock,” Percoco wrote in a preview note.

“We expect constructive updates across both, though likely not enough to drive a decisive [change in valuation].”

Investors are expected to seek additional details on the pace of the service's expansion.

Market participants are also awaiting further information on the third generation of Optimus, Musk's humanoid robot project, which he has described as having the potential to become one of the company's largest products.

While neither robotaxis nor Optimus currently contribute meaningfully to Tesla's earnings, analysts continue to view both businesses as central to the company's long-term investment case.

Investors are also expected to monitor growth in Tesla's Full Self-Driving subscription business, which currently has 1.3 million subscribers.

Tesla enters the earnings report after recently posting second-quarter sales and delivery figures that exceeded Wall Street expectations.

However, the stock declined following the delivery report, suggesting investors had already priced in strong operating performance.

The market's reaction indicates that exceeding delivery estimates has become the minimum expectation, raising the bar for the earnings release.

Analysts also noted that Tesla's premium valuation increasingly depends on future businesses such as autonomous driving and humanoid robotics rather than near-term automotive earnings.

At the same time, investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence has shifted toward companies generating immediate financial returns from AI infrastructure, while software- and autonomy-focused businesses have attracted comparatively less attention.

Speculation surrounding potential corporate actions involving SpaceX has also circulated in recent months.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) said it will roll out a new software update this summer that lets its Grok AI assistant make phone calls, play music, adjust cabin climate and open the glovebox by voice command.

The update also allows drivers to view and share self-driving statistics through Tesla's mobile app, and gives Navigation the ability to suggest routine destinations and prioritize routes drivers have previously taken.

Other features include the ability to set a desired arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear display controls from the front screen. Tesla's in-car Caraoke feature will add scoring and saved high scores.

The company also plans to add Supercharger name search, queue controls for Apple Music, adjustable zoom for the self-driving visualization display, browser camera and microphone support, and new animations for the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla shares were up 3.3% on Tuesday afternoon.

A Tesla robotaxi drives on the street along South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, U.S., June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab on Tuesday expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, as the electric-vehicle ​maker races to prove that it can ‌scale its autonomous ride-hailing business beyond its initial launch markets.

The move comes a day before Tesla reports second-quarter ​earnings, with Wall Street closely watching the ​progress on robotaxis, which underpin much of ⁠the company's valuation as CEO Elon Musk shifts ​focus toward artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and humanoid ​robots.

Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year and expanded to Dallas and Houston earlier this ​year and Miami this month. The company ​has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco ‌Bay ⁠Area.

Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets. In response, Musk has said the company was deliberately taking ​a cautious ​approach, and ⁠that rigorous safety testing was the main constraint to faster deployment of ​the service.

Unlike rivals such as Alphabet-owned (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo, ​which ⁠relies on lidar sensors, Tesla's robotaxi system uses cameras and AI-based software to navigate. Tesla plans ⁠to ​eventually deploy its purpose-built Cybercab ​vehicle, which does not have pedals or a steering wheel.

Reporting by ​Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Amova Asset Management Americas Inc. increased its position in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report) by 4.1% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 1,007,964 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock after purchasing an additional 39,495 shares during the quarter. Tesla makes up 5.3% of Amova Asset Management Americas Inc.’s holdings, making the stock its 2nd largest position. Amova Asset Management Americas Inc.’s holdings in Tesla were worth $376,071,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

A number of other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also bought and sold shares of the business. Norges Bank acquired a new position in shares of Tesla in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $17,128,100,000. Corient Private Wealth LLC grew its holdings in Tesla by 3,205.5% in the 4th quarter. Corient Private Wealth LLC now owns 21,459,599 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $9,650,811,000 after buying an additional 20,810,386 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE grew its holdings in Tesla by 56.0% in the 4th quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 20,755,605 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $9,334,211,000 after buying an additional 7,450,766 shares in the last quarter. Cardano Risk Management B.V. increased its position in Tesla by 882.8% during the 4th quarter. Cardano Risk Management B.V. now owns 8,202,060 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $3,688,630,000 after buying an additional 7,367,507 shares during the period. Finally, Vanguard Group Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Tesla by 2.6% during the fourth quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 258,925,024 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $116,443,762,000 after buying an additional 6,538,720 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 66.20% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research analysts have issued reports on TSLA shares. Citigroup began coverage on shares of Tesla in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. China Renaissance dropped their price objective on Tesla from $382.00 to $372.00 and set a “hold” rating for the company in a report on Monday, April 27th. Zacks Research upgraded Tesla from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, April 28th. Phillip Securities decreased their price target on Tesla from $220.00 to $215.00 and set a “sell” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, May 13th. Finally, Sanford C. Bernstein raised Tesla from an “underperform” rating to an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 5th. Twenty-one investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twenty-one have assigned a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $408.07.

Get Our Latest Research Report on Tesla

Insider Buying and Selling at Tesla In other news, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, May 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $450.00, for a total value of $1,350,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 18,106 shares in the company, valued at approximately $8,147,700. This represents a 14.21% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, April 30th. The stock was sold at an average price of $378.11, for a total value of $9,985,506.99. Following the sale, the director owned 48,399 shares in the company, valued at $18,300,145.89. This represents a 35.30% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 32,015 shares of company stock valued at $12,383,640 over the last quarter. Company insiders own 19.90% of the company’s stock.

Key Stories Impacting Tesla Here are the key news stories impacting Tesla this week:

Positive Sentiment: Analysts and strategists still see upside catalysts from Tesla’s Q2 report, especially around robotaxi progress, Cybercab, Optimus, and other AI/autonomy updates that could support a higher valuation. This Analyst Bets On Tesla’s Robotaxi And Cybercab Businesses Ahead Of Q2 Results – Retail Sees Stock Climbing To $450 Positive Sentiment: Tesla’s delivery rebound and stronger-than-expected sales trends have improved sentiment into earnings, with some coverage saying a Q2 beat looks likely and that production growth in Germany could help margins and volume. Tesla’s Earnings Setup: Most of the Good News Is Already Out Positive Sentiment: Bank of America reportedly raised its Tesla forecasts ahead of earnings, reinforcing the view that results and near-term guidance could come in better than feared. Bank of America raises Tesla forecasts ahead of July 22 earnings Positive Sentiment: There are also reports that Tesla is planning a major production boost in Germany, which could support future output and help the company maintain global EV scale. Tesla plans for a major production boost at its plant in Germany Neutral Sentiment: Tesla investors are focused on key earnings questions around margins, AI spending, FSD subscriptions, and whether autonomy can justify the company’s premium valuation. Tesla investors share their most burning questions ahead of earnings Neutral Sentiment: The stock is also being viewed as a major volatility event into earnings, with traders expecting a sizable move but no clear consensus on direction. Here’s How Much Traders See Tesla Stock Moving After Earnings Negative Sentiment: Options traders are betting heavily against Tesla ahead of earnings, reflecting concern that expectations are too high and that the stock may be vulnerable if results disappoint. Options Traders Bet $550M Against Tesla Ahead Of Earnings Negative Sentiment: Several articles warn that Tesla’s AI4 hardware may already be falling behind and that the company’s valuation depends heavily on future autonomy gains, adding pressure if management does not deliver fresh upside. Tesla’s (TSLA) AI4 Hardware May Already Be Falling Behind Negative Sentiment: Competition remains a concern, with BYD’s strong EV deliveries and XPeng teasing a lower-priced rival to the Model Y, highlighting pressure on Tesla’s global dominance and pricing power. BYD Delivered 557,090 Battery-Electric Vehicles in Q2 2026. Here Is What That Means for Tesla’s Global Dominance. Tesla Stock Performance Tesla stock opened at $369.57 on Tuesday. The company has a quick ratio of 1.62, a current ratio of 2.04 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The stock has a market cap of $1.39 trillion, a PE ratio of 339.06, a P/E/G ratio of 13.08 and a beta of 1.80. Tesla, Inc. has a 12-month low of $297.82 and a 12-month high of $498.83. The business’s 50-day moving average price is $407.91 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $405.03.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The electric vehicle producer reported $0.41 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.39 by $0.02. The company had revenue of $22.39 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $22.96 billion. Tesla had a net margin of 3.95% and a return on equity of 4.89%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 15.8% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the company posted $0.27 EPS. As a group, analysts expect that Tesla, Inc. will post 1.34 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Tesla Company Profile (Free Report)

Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American company that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy generation and energy storage products. Founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla grew into a vertically integrated mobility and clean‑energy company with Elon Musk serving as its chief executive officer. The company’s stated mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, reflected in its combined focus on electric drivetrains, battery technology, renewable energy products and software.

Tesla’s automotive business includes a lineup of battery‑electric vehicles and related services.

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Speculation is growing among investors that Elon Musk will merge his rocket and EV companies. SERGIO FLORES/AFP via Getty Images Whispers that Elon Musk might combine Tesla and SpaceX are growing — and investors want answers.

Shareholders took to an online Tesla investor forum to submit questions for executives ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings and clamor for more details about a rumored merger with SpaceX.

"Will SpaceX merge with Tesla?" asked one retail investor, in a question representing around 100,000 Tesla shares. Others asked if investors would get a vote on any proposed merger and how executives would ensure that a tie-up treats Tesla investors fairly.

One retail investor asked how Musk would balance his compensation plan, which requires the Tesla CEO to hit a series of ambitious goals to unlock the full $1 trillion payout, with a SpaceX merger.

"To reward long-term Tesla retail shareholders for their loyalty, can you commit to achieving at least half of the goals outlined in your 2025 compensation plan before considering any offers to acquire or merge Tesla?" they wrote in a post that has received nearly 300 votes.

Musk's goals include passing 20 million EV sales, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and deploying 1 million robotaxis and Optimus robots.

While the majority of questions on the Q&A platform were focused on Tesla's sluggish robotaxi rollout and plans for Optimus, Business Insider counted at least 20 questions about the potential merger, making it one of the most-discussed topics among investors.

It's a sign that Tesla investors are increasingly responding to rampant speculation about a mega-merger with SpaceX, which raised a record $86 billion in a blockbuster IPO last month.

Musk is the CEO of two public companies that are worth more than $1 trilion.  Bloomberg/Getty Images Longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber told Business Insider he expected the merger to come up in Tesla's Q2 earnings call on Wednesday.

"I expect management to downplay it, because on the surface it does not create obvious value for either company. It would be complicated, distracting, and difficult to structure in a way that makes everyone happy," said Gerber, who is the CEO of wealth management firm Gerber Kawasaki.

Gerber added that the slow pace of Tesla's robotaxi expansion, which he said underpinned the company's $1.4 trillion valuation, is investors' main focus right now. However, he still expects a tie-up with SpaceX to happen eventually.

"SpaceX is where much of the innovation and excitement is right now, while Tesla's core EV business is under increasing pressure," Gerber said.

"If investor interest continues shifting away from EVs and toward SpaceX's growth story, a merger may become a way to reframe Tesla around Elon's stronger innovation platform," he added.

Tesla and SpaceX's share prices have both languished in the past month. Tesla's stock is down nearly 8%, while SpaceX has fallen 35% as the rocket maker's shares tumbled from their post-IPO peak.

SpaceX's IPO broke records, but it has had a bumpy landing.  TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images Investors and Tesla bulls previously told Business Insider that a combination would make it easier for the two companies, which are already heavily intertwined, to work together.

SpaceX and Tesla are already collaborating on Musk's Terafab chip-building moonshot, and SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell didn't rule out a merger last month.

"That might make Elon's life a little easier, actually," Shotwell said.

"There's no question that there's synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures, definitely, there's a convergence of a kind of what we're all trying to accomplish in the future," she added.

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Tesla SpaceX Elon Musk More Earnings

21.7.2026 09:01

Investoři přesouvají pozornost k výsledkům firem

V úterý ráno rostou zámořské futures kontrakty +0,5 %, zatímco otevření v Evropě zřejmě bude nevýrazné poblíž nuly. Asie přes noc posílila poprvé za 4 dny, investoři se vrátili k čipům, což po nedávném výprodeji vedlo k oživení v tomto sektoru. Cena ropy klesá -1 %, Brent se obchoduje lehce nad 88 USD za barel. I když USA a Írán si „vyměňovali údery“ již desátý den po sobě. Nyní budou investoři obracet svoji pozornost na výsledky megakapitalizovaných společností, tento týden budou oznamovat kvartální čísla Tesla a Alphabet. Novartis vykázala v minulém čtvrtletí vyšší než očekávaný zisk, což signalizuje návrat k růstu. Praha včera vstoupila do nového týdne mírným růstem, index PX přidal +0,3 % na 2592 bodů. Silnější závěr s komoditami předvedl ČEZ (1310 Kč, +0,8 %). Z bank si vedla nejlépe Moneta (+0,9 %), u zbrojařů klesal COLT CZ (-1 %), naopak posílilo CSG (+1,2 %). Dnes čekáme klidnější vývoj v prázdninovém tempu.

Pavel Hadroušek, makléř, Fio banka, a.s.

Tesla (TSLA) is set to report Q2 results after the closing bell on Wednesday, July 22, with investors hoping the EV leader can build on a surprisingly strong delivery report.

Tesla is scheduled to report earnings after markets close on Wednesday, with traders anticipating a big move from the EV maker's stock.

As Tesla (TSLA) prepares to report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, the backdrop for the EV giant looks increasingly challenging.

Despite a seemingly strong macro footprint, a mix of fundamental headwinds, competitive pressure and lofty valuation expectations suggests that risks are skewed to the downside heading into the release. Tesla recently released second-quarter sales and delivery figures that easily beat consensus expectations. Yet, instead of rallying, the stock retreated.

This price action is a classic tell: market expectations are extremely high, and a beat is now viewed merely as the baseline. If exceeding delivery targets fails to spark a rally, meeting or slightly beating bottom-line earnings will likely be greeted glumly by Wall Street.

The broader enthusiasm for pure-play EVs has cooled significantly over the past two years, but competitive pressure in key segments remains fierce. Rivian's rollout of the R2 targets the core mass-market SUV segment ($45,000–$60,000)—the exact price band where Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y have traditionally buttered their bread (>96% of 2025 sales were those two models) As competitors like Rivian with their newly released R2 hone in on this volume sweet spot with improved economics and fresh design appeal, Tesla faces mounting margin pressure in its core automotive business. Admittedly, Rivian does not have the production capacity to supplant Tesla's most popular models, but strong demand will help it raise the capital and capacity needed to do so.

Unsubstantiated valuations and AI distractionsTesla's elevated valuation relies heavily on non-automotive catalysts like robotics and autonomy. Wall Street continues to price in long-term optionality for humanoid robotics (Optimus) and full self-driving.

However, overall market enthusiasm for the AI narrative has shifted. Investors now favor hardware providers with tangible near-term financial returns over downstream software promises. Another possible area of support is speculation about potential corporate actions or synergies with SpaceX, which continues to circulate.

TSLA year to date

Yet, a merger or restructuring makes little strategic sense for the core operations of either firm. Furthermore, with SpaceX shares trading below their initial public valuation, speculative enthusiasm around cross-entity corporate financial engineering has lost momentum.

Technically, TSLA looks vulnerable. Moving envelope indicators and Bollinger Bands show long positions struggling, while the MACD, RSI, and major long-term moving averages display explicitly bearish momentum profiles.

In recent quarters, Tesla's post-earnings stock moves have been more muted than its multi-year historical average. The options market reflects this compression:

Implied volatility: The at-the-money straddle expiring July 24 (e.g., the $380 straddle) is priced at roughly 7% of the underlying stock price.Historical move: This sits visibly below Tesla's long-term average post-earnings swing of ~9% over comparable two-day periods.The strategy: Short-term bear put spreadWhile options premiums are pricing in a lower move than the historical average, implied volatility is slightly higher than last quarter, and put skew remains elevated. Buying options outright can expose traders to an expensive "volatility crush" immediately after the announcement.
For equity holders seeking downside protection or traders looking for a risk-defined alternative to shorting the stock, a short-term Bear Put Spread offers a reasonable risk/reward.

Specifically:

Buy August 21st (regular expiration) $360 for $15Sell August 21st (regular expiration) for $330 Put $6Max Loss: $900Max Gain $2100Skill Level: Intermediate This trade:

It captures the elevated put skew.It defends against "IV" or "vol crush". The short put reduces net Vega and Theta drag following the earnings announcement.Attractive risk reward: At $9.00 this $30 wide put spread pays more than 2:1 if Tesla falls to $330 by August Expiration. While that's a lot lower than the current stock price, the average move over the month following earnings is just over 15% higher or lower.

HomeIndustriesAutomobiles‘What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short-term goals that they’ve set for themselves?’ asks one investorJuly 20, 2026, 1:54 p.m. ET

Tesla’s robotaxi plans have been of major interest to investors, but some are getting fed up with the company’s slower-than-expected rollout.

Retail investors specifically want to know why it’s taking so long for Tesla TSLA to even come close to meeting CEO Elon Musk’s forecasts. The company lets individual investors submit questions and vote on which ones deserve airtime on Tesla’s earnings call, and robotaxi delays are among the top areas of interest.

There's no denying Tesla (TSLA 1.43%) ushered electric vehicles (EVs) into the mainstream, even making them cool. And for a long time, being the first to do so meant Tesla was the biggest and best-known name in the business.

Nothing invites competition to a new market like a proven opportunity, though. Now, Tesla's facing a slew of competitors, with one particular EV titan to worry about. That's China's BYD Company (BYDDY +1.42%), which shipped 557,090 battery-powered vehicles last quarter alone, topping Tesla's much-improved total of 480,126, and reclaiming the top spot temporarily lost in Q1.

Data source: CNEVPost. Chart by author.

The question is, what does this mean for Tesla shareholders?

Two finer points behind the broad numbers The numbers in and of themselves don't mean much. A stock's value is relative to that particular company's history and likely future. Both BYD and Tesla could perform well enough to satisfy each organization's shareholders.

In a more qualitative context, though, the two numbers underscore a couple of noteworthy details.

One of these is how, while BYD continues to outsell Tesla in China (as could be expected), it's also doing remarkably well in Europe, where Tesla has historically led. BYD delivered a record-breaking 175,349 electric automobiles to overseas markets in June alone, up nearly 95% year over year, with European demand remaining strong after last year's total shipments to that market growing 270%.

Image source: Getty Images.

The other top talking point from the two companies' recent delivery numbers is one that Tesla supporters are quick to highlight. That's the fact that these two EV names aren't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. BYD is an integrated manufacturer aiming to build affordable electric vehicles for the masses. While Tesla's Model 3 is also meant to be lower-cost, at a starting price of $36,990 that quickly edges higher with even just a few basic upgrades, Tesla's electric vehicles remain in the upper range of the premium scale.

It would be naïve to believe that the availability of a more affordable option isn't at least poaching some would-be Tesla owners, if not many. The evidence of this dynamic comes in the form of recent price cuts that aren't being matched dollar for dollar with production cost cuts. Unsurprisingly, these materialized in step with the ramp-up of BYD's deliveries.

Connecting the dots So what does this mean for Tesla's dominance of the EV market, and by extension, for shareholders?

It's simple -- it means Tesla is no longer dominant.

It's still an EV powerhouse to be sure. The advent of its first similarly scaled competition, however, is exposing the downside of some strategic decisions, like the fact that it's not as vertically integrated as BYD is. This more streamlined structure raises its total manufacturing costs, while also limiting its flexibility. And there was little room for either, given how profit margins have been pressured.

Today's Change

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As far as the stock's concerned, we're already seeing the impact. Shares have made no net progress since early last year, shortly after BYD first lapped Tesla's deliveries. Although that's not a permanent condition, it does suggest investors are no longer giving the stock the benefit of any doubt. That's fairly new.

Tesla's Q2 earnings report scheduled for July 22 should shed some light on any profit-margin-related concerns, for better or worse.

There’s a peculiar dynamic that surrounds Tesla every quarter, and it’s worth pausing on before Wednesday evening.

Unlike almost any other large-cap company, Tesla tells you how it did before it tells you how it did. The delivery figures land weeks ahead of the financials, which means that by the time management steps onto the earnings call on July 22nd, investors already know the most important operational number of the quarter.

What’s left is the harder question: what did it cost to get there, and what comes next?

Image Source: StockCharts

Delivery Numbers Impress Ahead of Earnings AnnouncementThis quarter, the delivery number was genuinely impressive. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter — 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, plus 12,364 across other models — comfortably clearing most estimates.

That’s a 34% sequential jump and a 25% increase from a year ago, making it Tesla’s strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. For a company that spent much of the past two years fielding questions about demand saturation, that’s a meaningful rebuttal.

But a sophisticated reading requires understanding why the number was so strong, and here the picture gets more nuanced. A significant driver was elevated gasoline prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, which pushed cost-conscious consumers toward electric vehicles.

International markets did the heavy lifting: Europe showed robust momentum, and China staged a strong rebound in May, snapping a two-month streak of year-over-year declines. U.S. demand, by contrast, remained comparatively soft. The uncomfortable parallel is to the third quarter of 2025, when a similar surge materialized as American buyers rushed to beat the expiration of federal EV tax credits — a temporary pull-forward that borrowed from future quarters.

Whether this quarter’s strength proves durable or similarly borrowed is the question management will need to address on the call.

Tesla’s Rating Improves as Estimates Jump Now to the projections themselves. The Zacks Consensus Earnings Estimate for the quarter stands at 50 cents per share on revenues of $25.8 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 25% and 14.7%, respectively. Encouragingly, that earnings estimate has been revised upward by five cents over the past 60 days — which means analysts are nudging their expectations higher into the print.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For the full year, the consensus calls for revenues of $103.3 billion, up 8.9%, and EPS of $2.15, representing a healthy 29.5% increase.

One segment deserving more attention than it typically receives is energy storage, which quietly delivered the quarter’s other standout result. Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter — up 53% sequentially and 40% year over year, driven by stronger-than-anticipated demand for Megapack and Powerwall. In a world of surging data-center power requirements and strained electrical grids, this business has become a legitimate secondary growth engine.

Then there’s the story that actually drives Tesla’s valuation: autonomy and artificial intelligence. The company now operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and Miami, with supervised service in the San Francisco Bay Area — real, tangible progress that shouldn’t be dismissed.

Yet Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) still has considerable ground to make up against Alphabet’s Waymo, the acknowledged frontrunner, and Elon Musk has already pushed back the robotaxi timeline. The Optimus humanoid robot program tells a similar story; on the first-quarter call, Musk candidly described production as “quite slow” and said output this year was “literally impossible to predict.”

Musk’s ambition carries a rising price tag. Tesla lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion, and management has warned that free cash flow could turn negative as spending on AI and autonomous driving accelerates. Investors will want clarity on Wednesday about how long that investment phase runs and what milestones justify it.

What the Zacks Model RevealsTesla’s earnings track record is mixed but improving. Over the trailing four quarters, the company has topped EPS estimates three times and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 5.48%.

Our proprietary model points toward a beat this time. Tesla carries an Earnings ESP of +5.31% paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). When a positive Earnings ESP combines with a Zacks Rank of #3 or better, our research shows a positive surprise follows roughly 70% of the time.

Options markets are pricing in a move of about 7.6% in either direction after the report, notably wider than the 4.4% average move over the past four quarters. Expectations, in other words, are elevated in both directions.

Tesla possesses a formidable brand, genuine technological leadership, and multiple platforms that could prove transformational. The delivery rebound appears real, the energy business is compounding nicely, and a Q2 earnings beat looks more likely than not.

Tesla reports second quarter earnings on Wednesday and Elon Musk is teasing more technology improvements.

HomeEarnings AnalysisConsumer 

SummaryTesla, Inc. delivered a robust Q2 operating update, with 480,126 vehicles delivered—beating consensus by 18%—and strong energy storage growth.Despite the delivery beat, TSLA’s high valuation demands Q2 earnings demonstrate margin resilience, positive free cash flow, and tangible robotaxi progress.Energy storage deployments surged 53% quarter-over-quarter, but investors need evidence this translates into sustainable profitability and cash flow.I maintain a Hold rating on TSLA stock, awaiting the 22 July report to confirm whether operational momentum can justify the current AI-driven premium. jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has provided investors with one of its most robust operating updates in recent times. However, the investment case remains unsettled ahead of its earnings report, which are due to go out

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Posted by Defense World Staff on Jul 20th, 2026

Ascent Wealth Partners LLC lessened its stake in shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA – Free Report) by 76.9% in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The firm owned 1,095 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock after selling 3,638 shares during the period. Ascent Wealth Partners LLC’s holdings in Tesla were worth $407,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Crestwood Advisors Group LLC boosted its stake in Tesla by 34.7% during the fourth quarter. Crestwood Advisors Group LLC now owns 19,567 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $8,799,000 after buying an additional 5,039 shares during the period. Calamos Wealth Management LLC raised its stake in shares of Tesla by 5.9% in the fourth quarter. Calamos Wealth Management LLC now owns 41,907 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $18,846,000 after acquiring an additional 2,341 shares during the period. Private Capital Advisors Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Tesla by 139.3% in the 4th quarter. Private Capital Advisors Inc. now owns 21,331 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $9,593,000 after acquiring an additional 12,417 shares during the last quarter. Wealthquest Corp bought a new stake in shares of Tesla in the 4th quarter worth about $1,035,000. Finally, Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors LLC boosted its stake in shares of Tesla by 34.8% during the 4th quarter. Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors LLC now owns 64,481 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock worth $28,998,000 after purchasing an additional 16,652 shares during the period. 66.20% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Headlines Impacting Tesla Here are the key news stories impacting Tesla this week:

Positive Sentiment: Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating and a $460 price target, citing rapid robotaxi expansion, better-than-expected deliveries, and upcoming Optimus milestones. Positive Sentiment: Analysts and investors continue to focus on Tesla’s robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus programs, which remain major long-term growth catalysts. Positive Sentiment: Erste Group raised its FY2026 earnings estimate for Tesla, signaling at least some improving expectations heading into the report. Neutral Sentiment: Wall Street expects a sizable earnings-driven stock move, with options pricing implying elevated volatility around the report. Neutral Sentiment: Recent coverage highlights that Tesla’s quarterly delivery strength has not yet translated into a sustained stock rebound, suggesting investors want more than just beat-and-raise narratives. Negative Sentiment: Broader AI and high-growth tech weakness is weighing on Tesla, as investors worry about stretched valuations and cooling enthusiasm for expensive megacap names. Negative Sentiment: Several reports point to skepticism around Tesla’s valuation, with commentary noting the stock could be vulnerable if earnings, margins, or guidance disappoint. Negative Sentiment: Competitive and regulatory headwinds remain in focus, including tougher EV competition in Europe, a denied NHTSA petition over a headlight recall issue, and ongoing scrutiny of Tesla’s autonomy claims. Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of research firms recently weighed in on TSLA. Robert W. Baird reduced their price objective on shares of Tesla from $538.00 to $522.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, April 24th. Citizens Jmp assumed coverage on Tesla in a research note on Thursday, July 9th. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. Evercore upgraded Tesla from a “hold” rating to an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, June 5th. UBS Group raised their price target on Tesla from $364.00 to $442.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Thursday, July 9th. Finally, BTIG Research downgraded Tesla to a “neutral” rating in a research report on Friday, June 5th. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twenty-one have issued a Hold rating and four have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, Tesla currently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $408.07.

Get Our Latest Stock Report on Tesla

Tesla Trading Down 0.0% TSLA opened at $380.79 on Monday. The company has a quick ratio of 1.62, a current ratio of 2.04 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The stock’s fifty day moving average is $409.41 and its two-hundred day moving average is $405.63. The company has a market capitalization of $1.43 trillion, a P/E ratio of 349.35, a PEG ratio of 13.08 and a beta of 1.80. Tesla, Inc. has a 52 week low of $297.82 and a 52 week high of $498.83.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The electric vehicle producer reported $0.41 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.39 by $0.02. The business had revenue of $22.39 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $22.96 billion. Tesla had a net margin of 3.95% and a return on equity of 4.89%. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 15.8% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $0.27 EPS. Analysts forecast that Tesla, Inc. will post 1.34 earnings per share for the current year.

Insider Activity In other news, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares of the stock in a transaction on Thursday, April 30th. The stock was sold at an average price of $378.11, for a total transaction of $9,985,506.99. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 48,399 shares in the company, valued at approximately $18,300,145.89. This represents a 35.30% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Monday, June 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $402.20, for a total value of $1,048,133.20. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 22,039 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $8,864,085.80. The trade was a 10.57% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 32,015 shares of company stock valued at $12,383,640. Insiders own 19.90% of the company’s stock.

Tesla Company Profile (Free Report)

Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American company that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy generation and energy storage products. Founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla grew into a vertically integrated mobility and clean‑energy company with Elon Musk serving as its chief executive officer. The company’s stated mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, reflected in its combined focus on electric drivetrains, battery technology, renewable energy products and software.

Tesla’s automotive business includes a lineup of battery‑electric vehicles and related services.

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Great companies are often launched by great leaders -- but often they don't stay that way. Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded Google, which is now known as Alphabet. Apple had Steve Jobs. Microsoft had Bill Gates. Jeff Bezos ruled Amazon. All four companies continue to prosper under new leadership.

But then you have a handful of leaders who continue to helm the companies they led to greatness, such as Elon Musk and Tesla (TSLA 2.47%). Tesla has grown into a dominant electric vehicle company, largely due to Musk's personality and vision, which have attracted legions of so-called "Musk fanboys."

Tesla has matured into one of the world's largest companies, with a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion. But Musk's ambitious vision for Tesla, including the Optimus robot and unsupervised full self-driving technology, continues to dominate, keeping Tesla's valuation sky-high.

TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

There are huge expectations baked into Tesla stock, and the stock price is down 15% so far this year. With the company scheduled to report second-quarter results on July 22, can Elon Musk turn the tide for Tesla?

Tesla at a glance Tesla's core business remains its electric vehicles, including its popular Model 3 and Model Y lines. In the second quarter, Tesla sold 480,126 vehicles, with 467,762 coming from its two most popular lines. Sales in the quarter were up 25% -- a welcome turnaround from 2024 and 2025, when Tesla had annual declines in automotive sales.

But the fastest-growing segment is its services, which include automotive services, Robotaxi, and its full self-driving software subscription. While FSD can currently only be used with a driver behind the wheel, Musk has high hopes that unsupervised FSD will be approved for widespread use at some point. Services revenue jumped 42% in the first quarter from a year ago, reaching $3.74 billion.

However, Tesla's biggest opportunity likely lies in the company's planned Optimus robots. Cathie Wood, head of Ark Invest, has predicted that Optimus will transform both home and factory life in 2028 and 2029 and attributed Tesla's leadership in robotics to Musk's "dogged determination."

Image source: The White House.

Is Tesla a buy before earnings? Like always, there's a lot going on with Tesla. Musk isn't involved with the U.S. government anymore, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has disbanded. But Musk is still incredibly busy; he successfully brought his other major company, Space Exploration Technologies, public in June, and there's already speculation that SpaceX and Tesla will merge, perhaps within a year. But even if they don't, SpaceX's work with artificial intelligence, energy storage, data centers, and large language models will, in all likelihood, support Tesla's efforts to perfect unsupervised FSD and make Optimus robots successful.

If Tesla were merely an automaker, I think there would be cause for concern about the stock. Rivian Automotive is rolling out software updates that will pressure Tesla's EV leadership, and Tesla faces significant competition in Asia from Chinese automakers like BYD. However, Tesla is much more than an automotive company -- there's a reason why its shareholders granted Musk an incentive-based compensation package valued at up to $1 trillion. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo Finance have a consensus price target of $425, which represents potential gains of 11.5%.

As Wood and Tesla's legion of retail admirers point out, a bet on Tesla stock is largely a bet on Musk himself. With auto sales up big from a year ago, I'm expecting improved revenue for the quarter, but much of what happens with Tesla will ride on Musk's earnings call with analysts and how well he sells his vision for where the company is headed over the next 12 months.

Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) heads into its second-quarter earnings report this Wednesday, July 22, carrying two stories that can't both be right. The electric-car maker just delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and its highest quarterly total since the third quarter of 2025. Yet the stock sits at about $391 as of this writing, down 22% from its 52-week high of $498.83.

And one Wall Street firm thinks the decline is just getting started. Last week, Wells Fargo raised its Tesla price target to $130 from $125 while keeping its underweight rating. From today's price, that target implies a drop of about 67%.

The firm's reasoning, in essence, is that Tesla is selling more cars than it has in any quarter since the third quarter of 2025 but earning less on each one, with price cuts and rising input costs (memory chips, copper, and lithium among them) eating away the gains.

So, who's right?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The bull case is already public The strongest evidence for the bulls is volume. Tesla's 480,126 second-quarter deliveries were up 25% from the 384,122 vehicles it delivered in the year-ago quarter.

Delivery growth is also accelerating, up from a 6% year-over-year increase in the first quarter. After a long stretch of shrinking vehicle sales, growth is back.

The rest of the business is moving again, too. First-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year to $22.4 billion, with services and other revenue climbing 42%.

And after a soft first quarter in which energy revenue fell 12% year over year, energy storage deployments rebounded to 13.5 gigawatt-hours in Q2, up 41% from the year-ago period and up sharply from 8.8 gigawatt-hours in Q1.

Even the businesses investors are really paying up for are progressing. Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April, and it received approval for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the Netherlands the same month. Its active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions reached 1.28 million in the first quarter, up 51% year over year.

And the company has the resources to keep funding its ambitions in autonomy and robotics. Tesla ended Q1 with $44.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, up from $44.1 billion at the end of 2025.

That's an improving picture, and I don't think the bears can dismiss it.

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The bear case, in numbers The problem, as Wells Fargo frames it, is what all of that volume actually earns.

Tesla's first-quarter operating margin was just 4.2%, down from 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion of revenue, which works out to earnings per share of $0.13. Over the trailing 12 months, Tesla has earned $1.09 per share.

At about $391, then, the stock trades at about 360 times earnings.

That is the entire debate in one number. A multiple like that isn't pricing in a good quarter on Wednesday. It's pricing in years of things going right, including a robotaxi business that scales into a major profit stream while the core car business stays healthy the whole way.

And consider this detail. Even at Wells Fargo's $130 target, Tesla would still trade at about 120 times earnings. In other words, even the bear case values Tesla like a premium growth company -- that's how much optimism is baked into today's price.

The honest answer is that Wednesday's report can't fully settle this. After all, the bear case is about profits, and the bull case, so far, is mostly about volume. But the report should show which way the gap is closing.

Watch whether operating margin recovers from Q1's 4.2%. Watch what the second-quarter deliveries did to pricing. And watch energy, where a second-quarter rebound in deployments needs to show up in revenue and profit, too.

I don't expect a 67% plunge. A decline like that would probably require the market to stop paying for Tesla's autonomy story almost entirely, and the company keeps making measurable progress on it. But Wells Fargo's underlying framing, I think, is the right one. At this valuation, deliveries alone aren't enough. Profits have to follow.

Until they do, I wouldn't buy the stock ahead of Wednesday's report.

If Tesla can show margins turning up while deliveries grow, the bulls will have earned the next word. If it can't, a 22% discount from the high may not turn out to be much of a discount at all.

Tesla has spent the first half of 2026 pulling back from December highs. Our proprietary model answers the key question: where does the risk-reward stand from here?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) trades at $391.06 as of July 16, 2026. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $439.50, implying 12.39% upside over the next 12 months. The recommendation is buy, with high (90%) model confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $391.06 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $439.50 Upside 12.39% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% A Pullback From December Highs Tesla is down 3.81% over the past week and 13.04% year to date, but still up 21.57% over 12 months. The stock sits 15% below its 52-week high of $498.83.

Fundamentals tell a constructive story: Q1 2026 revenue rose 15.78% year over year to $22.39 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 topped expectations, and automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Free cash flow jumped 117% to $1.44 billion, and FSD paid subscribers hit 1.28 million, up 51%.

The Case for $493 and Higher Our bull scenario points to $492.94, a 26.05% total return. Catalysts include Cybercab production has just started, Semi ramps this year, and CFO Vaibhav Taneja’s guidance to “over $25 billion of CapEx” in 2026 for six factories, AI infrastructure, and Terafab.

Elon Musk described unsupervised FSD reaching customer cars “probably in the fourth quarter” and Optimus as “the biggest product ever”. Robotaxi is live in Austin, Dallas, and Houston with zero reported incidents. Polymarket traders assign an 81.5% probability to Tesla beating its next earnings report.

What Could Push Shares to $383 Our bear case lands at $383.32, a 1.98% decline. Tesla is priced for perfection at a trailing P/E of 357, and energy storage revenue fell 12% YoY in Q1, with regulatory credits sliding to $380 million. Operating expenses grew 37% YoY as AI R&D and Musk’s CEO stock-based comp hit the P&L.

Bulls counter that OpEx growth is investment: operating income still jumped 135.84%, and Taneja acknowledged Tesla is “in a very big capital investment phase” that supports future revenue. Insider selling has been notable, with 30 recent insider transactions skewed toward sales.

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How Tesla Stacks Up Against Rivian and Ford Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the closest pure-play EV comparable. Rivian’s $24.67 billion market cap, Q1 2026 revenue of $1.38 billion, and adjusted loss of $0.54 per share show how far Tesla leads on scale and profitability.

Rivian guides to a $1.8 to $2.1 billion EBITDA loss in 2026, making Tesla’s premium multiple defensible.

Ford (NYSE: F) offers a valuation counterpoint. Ford’s Q1 2026 EPS of $0.66 on $43.25 billion in revenue dwarfs Tesla in absolute earnings, yet Ford’s market cap is $55.5 billion.

Ford also pays a 5.4% dividend yield. That contrast frames Tesla as an autonomy and robotics play rather than a traditional automaker. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is reasonable in that context.

Tesla Price Prediction 2026-2030 Tesla’s 24/7 Wall St. price target of $439.50 and buy rating at 90% confidence rest on expanding auto margins, FSD subscription growth, and a mid-range entry point. The bull thesis strengthens if Cybercab and Robotaxi hit 2026 milestones. The risk case builds if OpEx growth outpaces revenue into 2027.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $439.50 2027 $478.00 2028 $515.00 2029 $550.00 2030 $584.82 Our five-year base case projects Tesla at $584.82 by July 2031, a 49.55% total return. These projections assume Tesla executes on autonomy, energy, and Optimus. Meaningful upside or downside could result from unsupervised FSD approval timing in China and Europe.

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