Steve Forbes told Larry Kudlow that the Fed is fighting the wrong battle, and the retailers posting surprise earnings beats may already be showing why he has a point.
Steve Forbes sees the economy sending two signals at once. He spoke in an October 21 television interview with Larry Kudlow. The media chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes cited third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5% alongside import prices up 8%.
He says pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation are working, and that inflation still reaching your grocery, fuel, and household bills is coming through a weak dollar.
His remedy targets money creation instead of interest rates. “I do think that they should cut the printing presses and shrink the balance sheet and appreciate the dollar,” Forbes said.
That matters for your portfolio because the largest U.S. importers just showed how sensitive their margins are to trade costs. Walmart (NYSE:WMT | WMT Price Prediction), Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) all booked tariff refunds that lifted margins last quarter. A stronger dollar would move through the same lines on their income statements, and it would last longer.
How a Weak Dollar Raises Prices on Store Shelves When the dollar falls, a foreign supplier needs more dollars to collect the same amount in its home currency, so U.S. prices for imported goods rise even when nothing else changes.
Forbes cited non-fuel import prices up 6% last month and fuel import prices up 5%, and described the trend as worsening.
The non-fuel number matters more. It reaches apparel, electronics, furniture and toys, and those increases tend to stick once shelves are updated, while fuel swings both ways.
Walmart said total inflation was running between 1% and 2%, and its inventory rose 6% in constant currency, partly on cost inflation.
Why Rate Hikes Miss Currency-Driven Inflation Demand is healthy. A weekly retail sales tracker is up nearly 10% year over year.
Rate hikes work by making credit costlier until spending cools. If the pressure comes from the currency, higher rates can slow growth while import prices keep rising, and that is the core of Forbes’s critique.
Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet means letting bonds it owns mature without replacing them. That drains money from the banking system and tends to support the dollar.
Forbes admitted that nobody, including the Fed, can control oil prices, but he said the central bank is responsible for the integrity of the dollar. That distinction matters because the Fed can influence currency-driven inflation but has little control over oil-driven inflation.
Tariff Refunds Preview the Retail Upside Target recorded a $994 million pretax IEEPA tariff refund as a reduction of cost of sales, worth $1.65 per share. Adjusted EPS of $4.11 beat the $2.34 consensus.
Walmart was eligible for about $2.9 billion in refunds and is putting much of it into price, with more than 11,000 rollbacks in the quarter.
Costco booked a $0.15 per-share benefit and cut prices on produce, meat, and hardware. TJX received $331 million in refunds and credited tariff favorability for most of its merchandise margin gain. A stronger dollar would lower landed costs the same way, and these retailers have shown they will pass savings to shoppers to gain traffic.
Who Loses When the Dollar Strengthens Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shows the cost. It expected foreign exchange to subtract around two and a half percentage points from year-over-year growth between the June and September quarters. A stronger dollar would compound that drag.
Commodity producers and gold usually fall when the dollar rises because they are priced in dollars, and balance-sheet runoff can also lift long-term yields, which pressures mortgages, housing and long-duration bonds. Raising rates into a growing economy can go too far. Slowing the money supply while output is expanding risks cooling demand more than intended.
Kudlow indicated the administration wants a stable, strong dollar and suggested it would push the Fed that way. Open conflict between the White House and the Fed would likely add volatility to currencies and bonds.
What a Stronger Dollar Means for Retail Stocks Retailers that import inventory get cheaper goods and firmer margins, and their customers gain purchasing power. Walmart raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.80 to $2.87 before any currency help.
Against that, prices have risen roughly 21% cumulatively, and a stronger dollar would only slow future increases. Refunds are one-time, and Target shares are already up 60.11% year to date. The policy direction Forbes describes likely favors domestic sellers of imported goods while threatening multinationals.
Walmart depends less on refunds and currency than Target, since membership, advertising, and marketplace drove nearly half its profit growth. Next, watch import prices, the dollar, and Fed balance-sheet runoff.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores have returned +10.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's no change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, which TJX falls in, has gained 8.4%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
TJX is expected to post earnings of $1.33 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.22 points to a change of +10.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.74 indicates a change of +10% from what TJX is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for TJX.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For TJX, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $15.81 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +4.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, $63.91 billion and $67.82 billion estimates indicate +5.9% and +6.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryTJX reported revenues of $15.18 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. EPS of $1.22 for the same period compares with $1.1 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.14 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.29%. The EPS surprise was +3.39%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
TJX is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about TJX. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $147.33, moving +1.9% from the previous trading session. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.09%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.34%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 2.15%.
The parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores's stock has climbed by 14.25% in the past month, exceeding the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.71% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.44%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of TJX in its upcoming release. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $1.33, indicating a 3.91% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $15.81 billion, up 4.61% from the year-ago period.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $5.22 per share and revenue of $63.91 billion, which would represent changes of +10.36% and +5.86%, respectively, from the prior year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for TJX. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.02% lower. TJX is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, TJX is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 27.71. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 22.48, so one might conclude that TJX is trading at a premium comparatively.
One should further note that TJX currently holds a PEG ratio of 2.61. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. TJX's industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.83 as of yesterday's close.
The Retail - Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 5, finds itself in the top 3% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Vertrix Wealth Management LLC raised its position in The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX – Free Report) by 22.8% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The fund owned 36,432 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock after buying an additional 6,774 shares during the period. TJX Companies accounts for 1.7% of Vertrix Wealth Management LLC’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 19th biggest holding. Vertrix Wealth Management LLC’s holdings in TJX Companies were worth $4,820,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of TJX. Wealth Enhancement Trust Services Inc. lifted its holdings in TJX Companies by 9.8% during the third quarter. Wealth Enhancement Trust Services Inc. now owns 21,681 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $2,869,000 after acquiring an additional 1,932 shares during the period. Moody National Bank Trust Division grew its stake in TJX Companies by 25.3% in the 3rd quarter. Moody National Bank Trust Division now owns 15,196 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $2,011,000 after purchasing an additional 3,072 shares during the period. Rockland Trust Co. grew its stake in TJX Companies by 1.0% in the 3rd quarter. Rockland Trust Co. now owns 269,701 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $35,684,000 after purchasing an additional 2,744 shares during the period. QRG Capital Management Inc. increased its position in shares of TJX Companies by 6.8% during the 2nd quarter. QRG Capital Management Inc. now owns 323,830 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $49,060,000 after purchasing an additional 20,517 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. increased its position in shares of TJX Companies by 1.7% during the 2nd quarter. Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. now owns 70,476 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $10,677,000 after purchasing an additional 1,166 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 91.09% of the company’s stock.
TJX Companies Stock Up 2.2% Shares of NYSE TJX opened at $141.80 on Tuesday. The TJX Companies, Inc. has a one year low of $122.78 and a one year high of $170.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a current ratio of 1.15 and a quick ratio of 0.56. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $138.11 and its 200-day moving average price is $150.53. The stock has a market capitalization of $155.97 billion, a PE ratio of 26.21, a P/E/G ratio of 2.50 and a beta of 0.56.
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 19th. The apparel and home fashions retailer reported $1.22 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.19 by $0.03. TJX Companies had a return on equity of 56.56% and a net margin of 9.73%. The company had revenue of $15.18 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $15.16 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $1.10 EPS. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. TJX Companies has set its FY 2027 guidance at 5.150-5.200 EPS and its Q3 2027 guidance at 1.360-1.380 EPS. On average, equities research analysts anticipate that The TJX Companies, Inc. will post 5.22 EPS for the current year. TJX Companies Dividend Announcement The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 3rd. Stockholders of record on Thursday, November 12th will be paid a $0.48 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, November 12th. This represents a $1.92 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.4%. TJX Companies’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 35.49%.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of equities research analysts have recently commented on the company. Wall Street Zen cut TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, August 22nd. BTIG Research restated a “buy” rating and set a $190.00 price target on shares of TJX Companies in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Barclays set a $188.00 price target on shares of TJX Companies and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Citigroup downgraded shares of TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating and decreased their price objective for the stock from $182.00 to $154.00 in a report on Thursday, August 20th. Finally, Evercore reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and issued a $173.00 price objective (down from $175.00) on shares of TJX Companies in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Twenty-one analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and three have given a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $174.86.
Get Our Latest Stock Report on TJX
TJX Companies Company Profile (Free Report)
The TJX Companies, Inc is an off-price retailer that sells apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings and other merchandise at prices generally below those of traditional department and specialty stores. Its inventory typically includes branded, designer and name-brand products purchased through opportunistic buying, including order cancellations, excess production and closeout merchandise. Product selection and pricing can vary by store and change frequently.
The company operates a portfolio of retail chains in the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia.
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TJX (TJX - Free Report) closed at $141.80 in the latest trading session, marking a +2.19% move from the prior day. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.06% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.38%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.44%.
The stock of parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores has risen by 10.11% in the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.66% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.36%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of TJX in its upcoming release. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $1.33, reflecting a 3.91% increase from the same quarter last year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $15.81 billion, indicating a 4.61% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $5.22 per share and a revenue of $63.91 billion, signifying shifts of +10.36% and +5.86%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for TJX. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Currently, TJX is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
With respect to valuation, TJX is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 26.59. This represents a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 23.25.
It's also important to note that TJX currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.5. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. Retail - Discount Stores stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.73 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Retail - Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 16, this industry ranks in the top 7% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
Buy HD. The stock is down ~18% on housing affordability fears, but the operating engine is intact: seven straight quarters of comparable-store sales growth and continued momentum expected into the back half of the year. At <2x sales, the market is pricing a much worse business than the results show, and HD’s market-share gains should keep earnings resilient even if housing stays tight.
Key Risk: Mortgage rates stay high longer than expected and housing demand keeps deteriorating, forcing HD to cut guidance or see comps roll over.
Buy McDonald’s (MCD)
Buy MCD. Shares are down ~18% despite “pretty solid numbers,” pointing to a valuation reset driven by temporary value-perception headwinds. MCD’s asset-light model and scale let it outspend rivals on digital ordering and targeted promotions, so once value initiatives land, earnings durability plus market-share gains can re-rate the stock. At ~6x sales, the discount is the setup.
Key Risk: Value promotions fail to win back lower-income customers, so traffic doesn’t recover and margins compress.
Wall Street is climbing without the consumer.
Over three months, the S&P 500 has gained 4.3%, while the consumer staples ETF (XLP) has lost about 4%, and its discretionary counterpart (XLY) about 5%.
Bespoke Investment’s senior expert Paul Hickey blames higher Treasury yields and fuel costs: the 10-year yield is hovering around record levels (above 5.3%) – and diesel is up some 68% since the Iran war started.
Meanwhile, wage growth of about 3% trails 3.4% inflation.
According to Telsey Advisory’s lead consumer analyst Joe Feldman though, a few consumer names have now bottomed and are worth buying heading into 2027.
Home Depot stock has been under immense pressure, losing some 18% in three months – a reaction to a housing market squeezed by tight supply and higher mortgage rates, which take their cue from the 10-year Treasury yield.
Affordability has suffered.
The company's operating record has not. It has posted seven straight quarters of comparable-store sales growth, and Telsey analyst Feldman expects the run to continue through the back half of the year.
In his telling, HD is taking market share even with the macro backdrop under significant pressure.
As of writing, the home improvement retailer is trading at less than 2x sales, which signals a huge discount to its historical averages.
“Pretty solid numbers” is how Feldman described McDonald’s latest financials – a verdict at odds with an 18% share-price slide over three months.
Management has spent this year trying to win back lower-income customers while contending with a weaker perception of value.
Feldman says the chain keeps delivering even as consumer spending softens adding that temporary value-perception headwinds create an attractive entry point for a premier global franchisor.
McDonald's unmatched scale, high-margin asset-light model, and robust balance sheet allow it to out-invest competitors in digital ordering and targeted promotions.
As value initiatives take hold, resilient earnings and market-share gains should catalyze a valuation rebound. At about 6x sales, MCD shares are now available to load up on a discount, he noted.
TJX stock’s 10% decline is the shallowest of the three, and the one closest to a self-inflicted wound.
In the latest reported quarter, the owner of Marshalls and HomeSense carried the wrong mix of inventory that hurt parts of the business, though management says trends have since improved.
But the calendar offers some cover: the off-price retailer tends to thrive at the end of the year, when consumers hunt for well-priced finds.
TJX shares are currently trading at about 2.5x sales, a valuation multiple that offers a meaningful discount to long-term investors.
The retailer also pays a dividend yield of 1.38% as of writing, which makes it even more attractive for income-focused investors.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores have returned +6.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.4% change. The Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, to which TJX belongs, has gained 0.4% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, TJX is expected to post earnings of $1.33 per share, indicating a change of +3.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.22 points to a change of +10.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.74 indicates a change of +9.9% from what TJX is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, TJX is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of TJX, the consensus sales estimate of $15.81 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +4.6%. The $63.91 billion and $67.82 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +5.9% and +6.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryTJX reported revenues of $15.18 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. EPS of $1.22 for the same period compares with $1.1 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.14 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.29%. The EPS surprise was +3.39%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
TJX is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about TJX. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Shares of The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX – Get Free Report) have received an average rating of “Moderate Buy” from the twenty-two ratings firms that are currently covering the company, Marketbeat reports. Four investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation, sixteen have issued a buy recommendation and two have assigned a strong buy recommendation to the company. The average 1 year price target among brokers that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is $171.63.
A number of equities research analysts recently issued reports on TJX shares. Sanford C. Bernstein reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and set a $175.00 price target on shares of TJX Companies in a research note on Tuesday, August 25th. Morgan Stanley set a $178.00 price objective on shares of TJX Companies and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Thursday, August 20th. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, August 22nd. Gordon Haskett reaffirmed an “accumulate” rating and issued a $155.00 price target on shares of TJX Companies in a report on Thursday, August 20th. Finally, Jefferies Financial Group lowered TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating and dropped their price target for the stock from $180.00 to $145.00 in a research report on Wednesday, August 26th.
View Our Latest Analysis on TJX Companies
TJX Companies Stock Performance NYSE TJX opened at $137.18 on Wednesday. The stock has a market capitalization of $150.89 billion, a PE ratio of 25.36, a P/E/G ratio of 2.42 and a beta of 0.56. The business has a 50 day simple moving average of $139.67 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $151.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a current ratio of 1.15 and a quick ratio of 0.56. TJX Companies has a 1-year low of $122.78 and a 1-year high of $170.00. TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 19th. The apparel and home fashions retailer reported $1.22 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.19 by $0.03. The business had revenue of $15.18 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $15.16 billion. TJX Companies had a return on equity of 56.56% and a net margin of 9.73%.The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $1.10 EPS. TJX Companies has set its FY 2027 guidance at 5.150-5.200 EPS and its Q3 2027 guidance at 1.360-1.380 EPS. On average, research analysts predict that TJX Companies will post 5.22 EPS for the current fiscal year.
TJX Companies Dividend Announcement The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 3rd. Shareholders of record on Thursday, November 12th will be given a dividend of $0.48 per share. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, November 12th. This represents a $1.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.4%. TJX Companies’s dividend payout ratio is 35.49%.
Hedge Funds Weigh In On TJX Companies A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Coston McIsaac & Partners raised its stake in TJX Companies by 11.3% in the 1st quarter. Coston McIsaac & Partners now owns 628 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $100,000 after purchasing an additional 64 shares during the last quarter. Kohmann Bosshard Financial Services LLC boosted its stake in shares of TJX Companies by 11.0% during the 1st quarter. Kohmann Bosshard Financial Services LLC now owns 666 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $106,000 after purchasing an additional 66 shares during the last quarter. HBW Advisory Services LLC boosted its stake in shares of TJX Companies by 5.1% during the 2nd quarter. HBW Advisory Services LLC now owns 1,357 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $206,000 after purchasing an additional 66 shares during the last quarter. Howard Financial Services LTD. grew its holdings in shares of TJX Companies by 3.5% during the second quarter. Howard Financial Services LTD. now owns 2,029 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $307,000 after buying an additional 69 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Millstone Evans Group LLC grew its holdings in shares of TJX Companies by 26.0% during the first quarter. Millstone Evans Group LLC now owns 344 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $55,000 after buying an additional 71 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 91.09% of the company’s stock.
TJX Companies Company Profile (Get Free Report)
The TJX Companies, Inc is an off-price retailer that sells apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings and other merchandise at prices generally below those of traditional department and specialty stores. Its inventory typically includes branded, designer and name-brand products purchased through opportunistic buying, including order cancellations, excess production and closeout merchandise. Product selection and pricing can vary by store and change frequently.
The company operates a portfolio of retail chains in the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia.
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Central Pacific Bank Trust Division decreased its position in The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX – Free Report) by 33.1% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the SEC. The fund owned 15,637 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock after selling 7,735 shares during the quarter. Central Pacific Bank Trust Division’s holdings in TJX Companies were worth $2,069,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Several other large investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in TJX. Investors Towarzystwo Funduszy Inwestycyjnych Spolka Akcyjna grew its position in TJX Companies by 120.3% during the 4th quarter. Investors Towarzystwo Funduszy Inwestycyjnych Spolka Akcyjna now owns 163 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock worth $25,000 after acquiring an additional 89 shares during the last quarter. Cetera Trust Company N.A bought a new stake in shares of TJX Companies during the second quarter worth $27,000. Bard Associates Inc. bought a new stake in shares of TJX Companies during the fourth quarter worth $35,000. Kelly Lawrence W & Associates Inc. CA acquired a new stake in shares of TJX Companies in the second quarter valued at $35,000. Finally, Cedar Mountain Advisors LLC increased its stake in shares of TJX Companies by 47.7% in the first quarter. Cedar Mountain Advisors LLC now owns 226 shares of the apparel and home fashions retailer’s stock valued at $36,000 after buying an additional 73 shares in the last quarter. 91.09% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.
TJX Companies Stock Up 1.3% Shares of NYSE TJX opened at $134.42 on Tuesday. The company has a current ratio of 1.15, a quick ratio of 0.56 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18. The firm has a market capitalization of $147.86 billion, a PE ratio of 24.85, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.39 and a beta of 0.56. The firm’s 50-day moving average is $140.14 and its 200-day moving average is $151.11. The TJX Companies, Inc. has a 1 year low of $122.78 and a 1 year high of $170.00.
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 19th. The apparel and home fashions retailer reported $1.22 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.19 by $0.03. The business had revenue of $15.18 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $15.16 billion. TJX Companies had a net margin of 9.73% and a return on equity of 56.56%. TJX Companies’s revenue was up 5.4% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $1.10 earnings per share. TJX Companies has set its FY 2027 guidance at 5.150-5.200 EPS and its Q3 2027 guidance at 1.360-1.380 EPS. Equities analysts expect that The TJX Companies, Inc. will post 5.22 EPS for the current year. TJX Companies Announces Dividend The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 3rd. Shareholders of record on Thursday, November 12th will be paid a $0.48 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Thursday, November 12th. This represents a $1.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 1.4%. TJX Companies’s dividend payout ratio is presently 35.49%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets TJX has been the topic of several research reports. Weiss Ratings downgraded shares of TJX Companies from a “buy (b+)” rating to a “buy (b)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 21st. Gordon Haskett reaffirmed an “accumulate” rating and issued a $155.00 target price on shares of TJX Companies in a research note on Thursday, August 20th. Jefferies Financial Group lowered shares of TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating and lowered their price target for the company from $180.00 to $145.00 in a report on Wednesday, August 26th. Erste Group Bank cut shares of TJX Companies from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 15th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price objective on TJX Companies from $160.00 to $140.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a report on Thursday, August 20th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, sixteen have given a Buy rating and four have given a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $171.63.
Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on TJX
TJX Companies Company Profile (Free Report)
The TJX Companies, Inc is an off-price retailer that sells apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings and other merchandise at prices generally below those of traditional department and specialty stores. Its inventory typically includes branded, designer and name-brand products purchased through opportunistic buying, including order cancellations, excess production and closeout merchandise. Product selection and pricing can vary by store and change frequently.
The company operates a portfolio of retail chains in the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia.
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TJX (TJX - Free Report) closed at $134.41 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.3% move from the prior day. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.66%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.18%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 1.05%.
Shares of the parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores have appreciated by 0.45% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 4.61%, and lagging the S&P 500's gain of 0.55%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of TJX in its upcoming earnings disclosure. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $1.33, marking a 3.91% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $15.81 billion, up 4.61% from the prior-year quarter.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $5.22 per share and revenue of $63.91 billion, indicating changes of +10.36% and +5.86%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for TJX. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the past month, there's been no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Right now, TJX possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In the context of valuation, TJX is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 25.42. This represents a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 23.11.
It is also worth noting that TJX currently has a PEG ratio of 2.39. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. The Retail - Discount Stores was holding an average PEG ratio of 1.83 at yesterday's closing price.
The Retail - Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 23, putting it in the top 10% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about TJX (TJX - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
TJX currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.50, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 24 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.50 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 24 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 17 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 70.8% and 8.3% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for TJX
Check price target & stock forecast for TJX here>>>
While the ABR calls for buying TJX, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Should You Invest in TJX?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for TJX, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 0.2% over the past month to $5.22.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for TJX. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for TJX may serve as a useful guide for investors.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) closed the last trading session at $132.31, gaining 0.8% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $169.36 indicates a 28% upside potential.
The mean estimate comprises 22 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $18.68. While the lowest estimate of $132.00 indicates a 0.2% decline from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the stock to surge 49.7% to reach $198.00. It's very important to note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is highly sought after by investors, the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable. And investors making investment decisions solely based on this tool would arguably do themselves a disservice.
But, for TJX, an impressive average price target is not the only indicator of a potential upside. Strong agreement among analysts about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier strengthens this view. While a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't gauge how much a stock could gain, it has proven to be powerful in predicting an upside.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Here's What You Should Know About Analysts' Price TargetsAccording to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Here's Why There Could be Plenty of Upside Left in TJXThere has been increasing optimism among analysts lately about the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher. And that could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current year, one estimate has moved higher over the last 30 days compared to no negative revision. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 0.2%.
Moreover, TJX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much TJX could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
Key Takeaways TJX posted 4% comparable-sales growth, led by higher customer transactions and average basket size.Burlington's sales rose 11% to nearly $3 billion as its U.S. store footprint continued expanding.TJX targets 7,500 stores, while Burlington expects at least 110 net new stores annually. Off-price retail has become an increasingly important part of the broader discount-store landscape as consumers seek recognizable brands without paying full-price retail. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) and Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) are two major participants in this space, using flexible buying models and frequently refreshed assortments to attract bargain-focused shoppers across apparel, accessories, footwear, home products and other discretionary categories.
Although TJX and Burlington compete for a similar customer base, their business profiles are not identical. TJX operates at a much larger scale with multiple retail banners and exposure beyond the United States, while Burlington has concentrated on expanding its domestic footprint and refining store productivity. Their differing scale, sourcing capabilities, expansion strategies and operating structures provide a useful basis for comparing how each company is positioned within the competitive Retail – Discount Stores industry.
Let’s explore the key factors shaping their performance.
The Case for The TJX Companies StockTJX’s diversified off-price model continues to support broad-based demand across its retail banners. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, consolidated comparable sales increased 4%, driven by higher customer transactions and average basket size. HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International posted comparable sales growth of 7%, 6% and 7%, respectively, helping offset softer growth at Marmaxx.
Merchandising capabilities and product availability are central to TJX’s competitive positioning. Management highlighted outstanding branded merchandise availability, supported by a sourcing network of roughly 21,000 vendors and more than 1,400 buyers. This scale provides flexibility to curate differentiated assortments, refresh merchandise frequently and serve shoppers across a wide range of income and age demographics.
TJX is also extending its long-term growth runway through store expansion. The company raised its global store potential by 500 locations to 7,500 stores across existing banners and countries and plans to accelerate annual store growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028. TJX ended the second quarter with 5,285 stores, leaving meaningful room for further expansion.
Despite solid operating performance, cost and external pressures remain important challenges. Adjusted SG&A increased 20 basis points to 19.7% of sales, largely due to higher store wage and payroll costs, while fuel and freight are expected to pressure third-quarter gross margin. The amount, timing and likelihood of additional tariff refunds remain uncertain, while foreign-exchange movements can affect TJX’s reported international results.
The Case for Burlington StockBurlington continues to benefit from disciplined execution of its off-price model, offering branded apparel, footwear, accessories and home merchandise at compelling values. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, total sales increased 11% to nearly $3 billion, while comparable-store sales rose 2%. The company ended the quarter with 1,287 stores, reflecting continued scale expansion across its U.S. footprint.
Merchandising and value positioning remain central to Burlington’s strategy. The company offers in-season branded merchandise at discounts of up to 60% compared with other retailers, targeting value-conscious shoppers, particularly moderate and lower-income households. Burlington is also reinvesting $55 million of tariff refunds into sharper values, reinforcing its focus on affordability for value-conscious shoppers.
Store expansion remains an important growth lever. Burlington opened 149 net new stores over the trailing 12 months, increasing its store count 13%, and expects at least 110 net additions annually. Operationally, the company is using predictive tools, enhanced routing, localization capabilities and Merchandising 2.0 systems to improve allocation, merchandise flow and responsiveness across its expanding network.
However, Burlington faces several near-term challenges. Management has become somewhat more cautious about the consumer environment, noting that moderate and lower-income households remain stretched. Higher fuel costs are also pressuring freight expense. The company also remains sensitive to warmer fall weather because of its outerwear exposure, and reinvestment of tariff refunds is expected to weigh on the third and fourth-quarter operating margins.
How Do the Estimates Compare for TJX & BURL?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 EPS has remained unchanged in the past seven days at $5.22 and $5.74, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for Burlington’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS has been revised downward by 73 cents and 39 cents, respectively, over the past seven days to $11.92 and $13.32.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation & Price Performance of TJX & BURLThe TJX Companies currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 23.42x, which is below the industry average of 27.38x. In comparison, Burlington trades at a lower multiple of 20.75x.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of stock performance, TJX has declined 9.2% over the past year, underperforming both the industry’s 8.5% growth and Burlington’s 3.3% increase.
One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line: TJX Emerges as the Stronger Off-Price PickTJX stands out in this comparison, backed by stronger comparable-sales growth, greater operating scale and broader geographic diversification. Its earnings estimates have also remained stable, providing better visibility than Burlington, which has seen recent downward revisions. Although Burlington offers a cheaper valuation and better one-year share-price performance, TJX’s extensive sourcing network, diversified banners and sizable store-growth opportunity make it the more compelling off-price investment choice at present.
TJX and BURL carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways TJX plans to accelerate annual store growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028.TJX raised its long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500 stores.TJX sees expansion potential in rural, urban and proven markets using varied store formats. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) is setting up for a faster pace of physical expansion after a long stretch of strong new-store performance. In the second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings update, management cited consistently better-than-expected performance from new store openings, supporting TJX’s decision to accelerate annual store-opening growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028 from the roughly 3% pace discussed earlier. TJX also raised the long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500 stores across its existing retail banners and current countries.
The expansion opportunity is concentrated in several areas. TJ Maxx and Marshalls together now have long-term potential for 3,300 stores, reflecting an additional 300 locations, while the HomeGoods division target increased by 200 stores to 2,000. TJX also sees room to add stores in rural markets where department stores are closing, place locations closer together in markets that have supported strong comparable sales and use smaller formats to enter densely populated urban areas.
The current footprint provides a sizable base for that rollout. TJX ended the second quarter of fiscal 2027 with 5,285 stores after adding 23 locations during the quarter. The company also opened its second TK Maxx store in Spain, where customer response was described as extremely positive.
The planned acceleration reflects a broader set of store opportunities and continued strength from newer locations, with TJX focused on expanding the existing retail banners across its current countries.
How TJX Stacks Up Against ROST and BURL on Store GrowthRoss Stores (ROST - Free Report) is also stepping up physical expansion, raising its 2026 new-store opening plan to 115 locations from 110. This includes about 90 Ross Dress for Less and 25 dd’s DISCOUNTS stores. Ross Stores opened 47 stores in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. While recent openings in existing and newer markets have been running ahead of plan, Ross Stores also targets roughly 5% annual unit growth.
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) is also pursuing aggressive store expansion, ending the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with 1,287 locations. While 149 net new stores opened over the past 12 months, representing 13% store-count growth, Burlington Stores expects about 115 net new stores in fiscal 2026. Burlington Stores remains confident in opening at least 110 net new stores annually and reaching, or likely exceeding, 1,500 stores by end-2028.
TJX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of TJX Companies have fallen 2.9% in the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, TJX trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.39X, down from the industry’s average of 27.39X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share has inched up 2 cents each to $5.22 and $5.74, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SummaryTJX earns a hold rating as strong free cash flow, improving margins, and solid growth opportunities are offset by a valuation that still looks somewhat expensive.My DCF estimates TJX's intrinsic value at $116.61 per share, placing the stock roughly 11% above my fair value estimate.Q2 sales rose 5%, adjusted EPS increased 11%, and adjusted gross and pretax margins improved year over year.Marmaxx execution issues create near-term uncertainty, while strong merchandise availability and accelerating store expansion support TJX's longer-term growth outlook.TJX remains a high-quality retailer, but the current share price does not provide enough margin of safety to justify a buy rating. M. Suhail/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis I assign The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) (TJX:CA) a hold rating due to its combination of a strong free cash flow, high-quality earnings, improving margins, and solid long-term growth opportunities—though all
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
In the latest trading session, TJX (TJX - Free Report) closed at $130.08, marking a -1.18% move from the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.51%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.93%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.48%.
The stock of parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores has fallen by 1.93% in the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 6.89% and undershooting the S&P 500's gain of 0.74%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of TJX in its forthcoming earnings report. On that day, TJX is projected to report earnings of $1.33 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 3.91%. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $15.81 billion, indicating a 4.61% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $5.22 per share and revenue of $63.91 billion, which would represent changes of +10.36% and +5.86%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for TJX. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.41% upward. At present, TJX boasts a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
Investors should also note TJX's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 25.22. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 21.39, which means TJX is trading at a premium to the group.
Also, we should mention that TJX has a PEG ratio of 2.37. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Retail - Discount Stores was holding an average PEG ratio of 1.84 at yesterday's closing price.
The Retail - Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 25, placing it within the top 11% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
TJX Companies (TJX +0.03%) offers a compelling customer value proposition.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Sept. 22, 2026. The video was published on Sept. 24, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TJX Companies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores have returned -6.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, which TJX falls in, has lost 5.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, TJX is expected to post earnings of $1.33 per share, indicating a change of +3.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1% over the last 30 days.
The consensus earnings estimate of $5.22 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +10.4%. This estimate has changed +0.4% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.74 indicates a change of +9.9% from what TJX is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.2%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for TJX.
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of TJX, the consensus sales estimate of $15.81 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +4.6%. The $63.91 billion and $67.82 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +5.9% and +6.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryTJX reported revenues of $15.18 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. EPS of $1.22 for the same period compares with $1.1 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.14 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.29%. The EPS surprise was +3.39%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
TJX is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about TJX. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways TJX plans a strong digital and social media push for the fall and holiday seasons.TJX logged roughly 1.4 billion video views, with strong completion rates on TikTok and YouTube.TJX is adding new e-commerce brands while using fresh merchandise and gifting to encourage store visits. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) is extending its customer reach through digital and social media. The company looks to keep its retail banners visible to shoppers and support repeat store visits. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 earnings call, TJX said that for the fall and holiday seasons, it plans to use a mix of marketing channels, with a strong emphasis on digital and social media. Its campaigns are designed to reinforce the company’s value positioning through entertaining content that connects with shoppers across a broad range of age and income groups.
The scale of that digital activity is already substantial. In the first half of fiscal 2027, TJX recorded 1.1 billion video views across Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Pinterest and YouTube. HomeGoods contributed more than 300 million additional views, bringing the referenced total to roughly 1.4 billion. TJX also reported that video completion rates on TikTok and YouTube were significantly above industry benchmarks, with viewers staying through most of the videos.
The digital push also supports TJX’s online assortment, with new brands added to U.S. e-commerce sites for TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Sierra to bring greater freshness to online shoppers. Beyond expanding its online presence, TJX’s integrated marketing efforts are designed to attract new customers and maintain engagement with existing shoppers. Its frequently changing merchandise mix and gifting initiatives are also intended to encourage more frequent store visits during the fall and holiday shopping seasons.
How TJX Compares With ROST and BURLRoss Stores (ROST - Free Report) is seeing marketing efforts support customer traffic and engagement. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Ross Stores’ comparable sales rose 10%, primarily driven by customer traffic, with gains from new and lapsed shoppers and more frequent trips by existing customers. The retailer also reported strong engagement with new creative messaging and a tweaked media mix. Ross Stores indicated its marketing efforts are reaching younger customers.
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) is working to strengthen marketing as it seeks to raise brand awareness and reshape perceptions. According to its second quarter of fiscal 2026 press release, Burlington Stores has been testing ways to step up marketing over the past six to 12 months and expects to roll out programs in coming quarters. In the fiscal second quarter, Burlington Stores’ comparable sales rose 2%, driven mainly by higher basket size, while transactions were relatively flat.
TJX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of TJX Companies have fallen 6.9% in the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 8.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, TJX trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.59X, down from the industry’s average of 26.78X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share has inched up 4 cents each to $5.22 and $5.74, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFinding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreIf you like to use all three kinds of investing, then the VGM Score is for you. It's a combination of all Style Scores, and is an important indicator to use with the Zacks Rank. The VGM Score rates each stock on their shared weighted styles, narrowing down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.8% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: TJX (TJX - Free Report) Based in Framingham, MA, The TJX Companies, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the U.S. and worldwide. The company’s broad range of assortments at varying prices helps it to reach out to a broad range of consumers. In addition to these, The TJX Companies emphasizes a frequent flow of fresh merchandise to stores and online. As of Aug. 1, 2026, the company operated a total of 5,285 stores across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Europe and Australia.
TJX is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Additionally, the company could be a top pick for growth investors. TJX has a Growth Style Score of B, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 10.4% for the current fiscal year.
Seven analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2027, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.06 to $5.22 per share. TJX also boasts an average earnings surprise of +7.4%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, TJX should be on investors' short list.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for TJX (TJX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is TJX due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for The TJX Companies, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
TJX Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Sales Growth and Margin GainsThe TJX Companies delivered broad-based growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, supported by strong comparable sales outside Marmaxx and improved adjusted profitability.
Adjusted earnings of $1.22 per share rose 11% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18. Net sales increased 5% to $15,180 million, topping the consensus mark of $15,136 million. Consolidated comparable sales advanced 4%.
Management said the availability of branded, quality merchandise remained outstanding, giving TJX the flexibility to flow fresh assortments into stores and online. The retailer also has several initiatives in place to drive traffic and sales through the fall and holiday shopping periods.
The third quarter started strongly, with improvement at Marmaxx early in the period. This is notable because Marmaxx sales were below the company's expectations in the second quarter, while HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International delivered stronger comparable sales results.
Marmaxx generated second-quarter net sales of $9,109 million, up 3% year over year. HomeGoods sales increased 10% to $2,507 million. TJX Canada posted sales of $1,470 million, up 6%, while TJX International sales rose 11% to $2,094 million. On a constant-currency basis, sales increased 8% in Canada and 10% internationally.
Comparable sales jumped 1% at Marmaxx, 7% at HomeGoods, 6% in TJX Canada and 7% at TJX International. Adjusted segment profit margins were 14.2% for Marmaxx, 12.4% for HomeGoods, 16.3% for TJX Canada and 7.3% for TJX International.
Adjusted pretax profit margin expanded 0.5 percentage points year over year to 11.9%. Adjusted gross profit margin increased 0.7 percentage points to 31.4%, driven by a rise in merchandise margin.
Adjusted selling, general and administrative costs represented 19.7% of sales, up 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier, primarily due to incremental store wage and payroll costs. Net interest income had a neutral year-over-year impact on pretax margin. The adjusted measures exclude the effects of IEEPA tariff refunds and related incremental compensation expense accruals. The adjustment removed a $219 million net pretax benefit from tariff refunds after the related compensation accruals.
The TJX Companies' Inventory and Cash Position Stay SolidTotal inventories were $7,862 million at quarter-end compared with $7,372 million a year earlier. Consolidated inventory per store increased 2% on a reported basis and 3% on a constant-currency basis, including distribution centers but excluding inventory in transit and e-commerce sites.
TJX generated $2,200 million of operating cash flow during the quarter and ended the period with $6,004 million in cash. Long-term debt was $1,871 million, and shareholders' equity totaled $10,651 million. The company spent $798 million on share repurchases and paid $529 million in dividends. It continues to expect fiscal 2027 repurchases of roughly $2,750 million to $3,000 million. Approximately $2,700 million remained available under the current repurchase program at quarter-end.
TJX's Adjusted Outlook Moves HigherFor the third quarter of fiscal 2027, management expects comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%. Adjusted pretax profit margin is projected between 12.3% and 12.4%, while adjusted earnings are forecasted at $1.30 to $1.32 per share.
For fiscal 2027, TJX continues to expect comparable sales growth of 3% to 4%. The company increased its adjusted pretax profit margin outlook to 12% to 12.1% and raised adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15 to $5.20 per share.
The TJX Companies' Store Expansion Plan AcceleratesTJX added 23 stores during the second quarter, ending the period with 5,285 locations. Total square footage increased 0.4% from the prior quarter to 137.9 million square feet, reflecting continued expansion across the company's existing retail banners.
Beginning in fiscal 2028, the retailer plans to accelerate store opening growth to 4%. TJX also increased its long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500 stores across its existing banners in current countries.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM ScoresCurrently, TJX has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, TJX has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Key Takeaways TJX raised fiscal 2027 EPS guidance and targets 5%-6% sales growth, with comps up 3%-4%.TJX lifted its long-term store target to 7,500 and plans 4% annual store growth from fiscal 2028.TJX trades above key sales-valuation benchmarks as Marmaxx and cost pressures remain execution risks. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) combines rising sales, higher earnings guidance and a larger store-expansion runway with a valuation that remains above key benchmarks. That mix keeps the investment case tied closely to execution.
Second-quarter results showed broad strength outside Marmaxx, while cash generation remained substantial. The question is whether those advantages can support the stock's premium as merchandising and cost pressures continue.
TJX's Growth Case Extends Beyond Fiscal 2027Management expects fiscal 2027 comparable sales to rise 3% to 4% and consolidated sales of $63.4 billion to $63.8 billion, up 5% to 6%. TJX also raised adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15 to $5.20 per share from $5.08 to $5.15.
The longer runway comes from stores. TJX lifted its long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500 and plans to accelerate annual store growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028.
Off-price peers show that the category remains active. Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST - Free Report) reported a 10% comparable-store sales gain and 13% total sales growth in its fiscal second quarter. Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) posted 2% comparable-store sales growth and an 11% increase in total sales for its fiscal second quarter.
TJX's Premium Valuation Raises the HurdleTJX's forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio is 2.06, above the Zacks sub-industry's 1.58 and the stock's five-year median of 1.95. The premium means investors are paying more than the company's recent historical midpoint and its industry comparison on this measure.
The stock's first-year forward P/E is 33.41. With that valuation, continued earnings delivery, Marmaxx improvement and progress toward the larger store target become more important to sustaining the investment case.
TJX Has Cash to Fund Growth and Shareholder ReturnsOperating cash flow reached $3.3 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027, up from $2.2 billion a year earlier. TJX ended the second quarter with about $6 billion in cash and expects fiscal 2027 capital spending of about $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.
The company also returned $2.4 billion to shareholders in the first half, including $1.4 billion of share repurchases and $1 billion of dividends. Management continues to expect fiscal 2027 repurchases of about $2.75 billion to $3 billion.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX Still Faces Execution and Cost RisksMarmaxx comparable sales increased just 1% in the second quarter. Management described the merchandise-mix issues as self-inflicted and within its control, while reporting improvement at the start of the third quarter.
Costs remain another constraint. Adjusted selling, general and administrative costs were 19.7% of sales, 20 basis points unfavorable year over year because of higher store wage and payroll costs. Third-quarter adjusted gross margin is projected at 32.1% to 32.2%, down 40-50 basis points, primarily because of higher fuel costs.
TJX's Signals Favor Growth More Than ValueTJX offers a constructive growth and cash-flow profile, but the premium valuation leaves less room for execution misses. The near-term case therefore rests on whether earnings delivery, Marmaxx improvement and store expansion continue to offset cost pressure.
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The rank reflects a favorable short-term earnings-estimate-revision signal over a one- to three-month horizon, while the Growth Score of B, Momentum Score of B and VGM Score of B add support for investors emphasizing those styles. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Value Score of D points to a less attractive valuation profile. That contrast fits the broader setup: TJX has favorable growth and momentum signals, but valuation remains the main counterweight to the investment case.
Key Takeaways TJX fell 17.4% in a month despite an earnings beat and a raised fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings outlook.Marmaxx comparable sales rose just 1%, but trends improved early in the third quarter.TJX faces higher wage and fuel costs while its forward price-to-sales ratio remains above key benchmarks. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) shares have fallen 17.4% in the past month even after second-quarter fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of $1.22 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 and management raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook.
The decline leaves investors weighing improving profit expectations against execution, cost and valuation risks.
TJX's Marmaxx Weakness Complicates the SelloffMarmaxx comparable sales rose just 1% in the second quarter, below management's expectations. The increase came from a higher average basket, partly offset by a small decline in customer transactions.
Management said the issue was self-inflicted and tied to merchandise mix, with the right goods not always reaching the right stores at the right time. Marmaxx trends improved early in the third quarter, and management expects greater improvement by the holiday season.
TJX Still Has Growth Across Most DivisionsConsolidated comparable sales increased 4% in the second quarter, while net sales rose 5% to $15.18 billion. HomeGoods comparable sales advanced 7%, TJX Canada gained 6% and TJX International increased 7%, helping offset softer Marmaxx growth.
Peer results provide additional context for the off-price category. Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST - Free Report) , another off-price apparel and home retailer, reported a 10% comparable-store sales increase in its latest quarter. Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) , also an off-price retailer, posted 2% comparable-store sales growth and an 11% rise in total sales.
TJX Faces Wage, Fuel and Currency PressureAdjusted selling, general and administrative costs reached 19.7% of sales in the second quarter, 20 basis points unfavorable from a year earlier, mainly because of higher store wage and payroll costs. These expenses can limit operating leverage even when sales remain healthy.
Third-quarter adjusted gross margin is projected at 32.1% to 32.2%, down 40-50 basis points year over year, primarily because of higher fuel costs. Currency movements also reduced second-quarter reported net sales growth by 1 percentage point.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX's Valuation Leaves Less Room for ErrorTJX's forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio is 2.06, above the Zacks sub-industry's 1.58 and its own five-year median of 1.95. The stock has declined sharply, but its valuation still carries a premium on this measure.
That premium places more weight on execution. Investors will be watching whether Marmaxx improves as expected and whether TJX can deliver its raised fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings outlook of $5.15 to $5.20 per share while managing wage and fuel pressure.
TJX's Short-Term Signal Stays ConstructiveThe 17.4% monthly decline has reset the share price, but it has not removed the operating and valuation questions. Raised profit guidance and early Marmaxx improvement support the near-term case, while cost pressure and a premium sales multiple remain important offsets.
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank is a short-term rating driven by earnings estimate revisions and is designed for a one- to three-month horizon. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The stock also has a Growth Score of B, Momentum Score of B and VGM Score of B, indicating favorable growth and momentum characteristics when paired with a top Zacks Rank. The Value Score of D is the counterweight, signaling weaker valuation characteristics despite the constructive short-term setup.
Key Takeaways TJX raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.20 after Q2 results exceeded plan.HomeGoods, Canada and International gains offset Marmaxx's slower 1% comparable-sales growth.TJX lifted its long-term global store target by 500 to 7,500 and plans 4% annual growth from fiscal 2028. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) raised its fiscal 2027 profit and earnings outlook after second-quarter results exceeded plan. The update puts more weight on whether higher merchandise margins, broad divisional growth and an improving Marmaxx trend can carry into the second half.
The event also extends beyond the current year. Management paired the higher outlook with a larger long-term store target, adding another growth lever as TJX works through execution and cost pressures.
TJX's Q2 Beat Supports the Higher OutlookAdjusted second-quarter earnings rose 11% year over year to $1.22 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18. Net sales increased 5% to $15.18 billion and consolidated comparable sales advanced 4%, above the company's plan.
The comparable-sales gain reflected a higher average basket and increased customer transactions. Adjusted gross margin increased 70 basis points to 31.4%, driven by a higher merchandise margin, while adjusted pretax profit margin expanded 50 basis points to 11.9%.
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST - Free Report) provides another off-price reference point, with second-quarter fiscal 2026 total sales up 13% and comparable-store sales up 10%. Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) reported an 11% sales increase and 2% comparable-store sales growth in its second quarter, showing that the broader off-price channel continued to generate sales gains.
TJX Raises Profit and Earnings ExpectationsTJX increased its fiscal 2027 adjusted pretax profit margin outlook to 12% to 12.1% from 11.9% to 12%. Adjusted earnings guidance moved to $5.15 to $5.20 per share from $5.08 to $5.15.
Management continues to expect consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% to 4% and sales of $63.4 billion to $63.8 billion, up 5% to 6% year over year. Third-quarter guidance calls for adjusted earnings of $1.30 to $1.32 per share and comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%.
TJX Needs Marmaxx to Keep ImprovingMarmaxx was the quarter's weakest division, with comparable sales rising 1%. HomeGoods increased 7%, TJX Canada gained 6% and TJX International advanced 7%, allowing the other banners to offset the slower performance at TJX's largest division.
Management described the Marmaxx merchandise-mix issue as self-inflicted and within its control. Trends improved at the start of the third quarter, and management expects greater improvement by the holiday season, making continued execution at Marmaxx an important test for the raised outlook.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX Expands Its Long-Term Store OpportunityTJX ended the second quarter with 5,285 stores and increased its long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500. That target implies more than 2,200 additional stores across existing banners and current countries.
The company also plans to increase annual store growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028. The expansion gives TJX another avenue for sales growth beyond comparable-store gains, while requiring continued merchandise availability and disciplined execution across a larger footprint.
TJX's Near-Term Signal Backs the Earnings StoryTJX's higher guidance, broad divisional gains and larger store target strengthen the operating backdrop, but Marmaxx execution remains a near-term checkpoint. Wage, payroll and fuel costs also remain relevant as management works to deliver the upgraded profit outlook.
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), a short-term rating tied to earnings estimate revisions over a one- to three-month horizon. It also has a Growth Score of B, Momentum Score of B and VGM Score of B, which are favorable grades when paired with a top Zacks Rank. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Value Score of D provides a counterweight by indicating a weaker value profile. The combination supports a constructive near-term signal for growth and momentum-oriented investors while keeping valuation and execution central to the investment debate.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) today announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend on its common stock of $.48 per share payable December 3, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 12, 2026.
About The TJX Companies, Inc.
The TJX Companies, Inc., a Fortune 100 company, is the leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the U.S. and worldwide. Our mission is to deliver great value to customers every day. We do this by offering a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name, and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers’ regular prices on comparable merchandise. We operate over 5,200 stores across ten countries, including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Homesense, and Sierra in the U.S.; Winners, HomeSense, and Marshalls in Canada; TK Maxx and Homesense in Europe; and TK Maxx in Australia. We also operate e-commerce sites for TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Sierra in the U.S. and three sites for TK Maxx in Europe. Our value mission extends to our corporate responsibility efforts, which are focused on supporting our Associates, giving back in the communities we serve, the environment, and operating responsibly. Additional information about TJX’s press releases, financial information, and corporate responsibility are available at TJX.com.
Important Information at Website
The Company routinely posts information that may be important to investors in the Investors section at TJX.com. The Company encourages investors to consult that section of its website regularly.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) today announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend on its common stock of $.48 per share payable December 3, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 12, 2026.
About The TJX Companies, Inc.
The TJX Companies, Inc., a Fortune 100 company, is the leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the U.S. and worldwide. Our mission is to deliver great value to customers every day. We do this by offering a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name, and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers’ regular prices on comparable merchandise. We operate over 5,200 stores across ten countries, including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Homesense, and Sierra in the U.S.; Winners, HomeSense, and Marshalls in Canada; TK Maxx and Homesense in Europe; and TK Maxx in Australia. We also operate e-commerce sites for TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Sierra in the U.S. and three sites for TK Maxx in Europe. Our value mission extends to our corporate responsibility efforts, which are focused on supporting our Associates, giving back in the communities we serve, the environment, and operating responsibly. Additional information about TJX’s press releases, financial information, and corporate responsibility are available at TJX.com.
Important Information at Website
The Company routinely posts information that may be important to investors in the Investors section at TJX.com. The Company encourages investors to consult that section of its website regularly.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260916265828/en/
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 16.5% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.
So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.
However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.
Why a Trend Reversal is Due for TJXThe RSI reading of 17.41 for TJX is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.
This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering TJX in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 0.6% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.
Moreover, TJX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Key Takeaways TJX International's adjusted segment profit margin rose 210 basis points year over year to 7.3%.TJX International sales climbed 11% to $2.09 billion, while comparable sales advanced 7%.TJX International's margin gains came alongside higher sales and customer transactions. The TJX Companies, Inc.’s (TJX - Free Report) International division delivered a sizable profitability improvement in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Adjusted segment profit margin on a constant-currency basis reached 7.3%, up 210 basis points year over year. Reported segment profit margin was 6.4%. Excluding a 0.9-percentage-point impact from tariff-refund-related incremental compensation expense accruals, adjusted segment profit margin was 7.3%. Foreign currency had no impact on the adjusted margin in the quarter.
The stronger margin performance came alongside healthy sales growth. TJX International (Europe and Australia) generated second-quarter net sales of $2.09 billion, up 11% from $1.89 billion a year earlier. Sales increased 10% on a constant-currency basis, while comparable sales advanced 7%, compared with 5% growth in the prior-year quarter. The comparable-sales increase was primarily driven by higher customer transactions, with strong, consistent sales in Europe and excellent sales in Australia.
Expansion activity also continued during the quarter, with TJX opening its second TK Maxx store in Spain. Customer response to the new location was described as extremely positive, reflecting continued activity within the division’s European footprint.
Overall, the quarter reflected improved profitability alongside solid sales growth at TJX International. The margin improvement was primarily driven by favorable merchandise margin and expense leverage on higher comparable sales, partly offset by incremental compensation expense accruals related to tariff refunds.
How TJX Compares With ROST and BURLRoss Stores (ROST - Free Report) also posted meaningful margin improvement in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The company’s operating margin increased 610 basis points, including a 405-basis-point benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Excluding that benefit, Ross Stores’ operating margin rose 205 basis points year over year, supported by stronger merchandise margin and lower distribution costs. Ross Stores also benefited from 10% comparable-store sales growth.
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) also delivered notable margin expansion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The company’s adjusted EBIT margin rose 100 basis points year over year to 7%. The improvement came alongside an 11% increase in total sales and 2% comparable-store sales growth. Burlington Stores expects fiscal 2026 adjusted EBIT margin to increase 20-40 basis points.
TJX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of TJX Companies have fallen 16.5% in the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 6.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, TJX trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.73X, down from the industry’s average of 27.02X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share has inched up 5 cents to $5.22 and $5.74, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
When choosing between Chewy (CHWY +0.45%) and TJX Companies (TJX -0.29%), you are weighing a digital-first pet retailer against a brick-and-mortar retail powerhouse. Both offer unique value, but which is the better buy?
Both companies are leaders in their respective niches within the consumer discretionary sector, though they operate with very different business models. We are comparing them because they both represent stable, large-cap options for investors looking for exposure to resilient consumer spending patterns.
The case for ChewyChewy focuses on providing pet products and services via its digital platform to nearly 21.7 million active customers. The company thrives on its proprietary Autoship subscription program, which is a key driver of recurring revenue and customer retention. This expansion into the e-commerce landscape for retail stocks allows it to capture a larger share of pet-related spending.
In the fiscal year ended Feb. 1, 2026, revenue reached approximately $12.6 billion, representing a growth rate of roughly 6.2% compared with the prior year. The company reported a net income of nearly $222.8 million for the period, which is a notable achievement for the online retailer. This resulted in a net margin of close to 1.8%, as the company remains profitable while investing in new categories.
As of its February 2026 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was roughly 1.1x, while the current ratio was nearly 0.9x. Free cash flow, which represents the cash a company generates after accounting for capital expenditures, reached approximately $562.4 million. Note that stock-based compensation represented roughly 43.1% of operating cash flow, which inflates reported cash generation since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.
The case for TJX CompaniesTJX Companies operates as a leading off-price retailer through popular banners like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. It utilizes an opportunistic buying model, sourcing merchandise from approximately 21,000 vendors to offer significant discounts to consumers. This treasure hunt experience helps the company maintain a loyal customer base across its more than 5,200 global stores.
In the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2026, revenue reached nearly $60.4 billion, which was a 7.1% increase compared with the previous year. The company reported net income of approximately $5.5 billion, demonstrating its ability to maintain high volume. This corresponds to a net margin of roughly 9.1%, which is significantly higher than many other competitors in the industry.
As of its January 2026 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was nearly 1.3x, while the current ratio was approximately 1.1x. Free cash flow for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2026, was close to $4.9 billion, providing ample liquidity for the business. This figure represents the cash remaining after the company pays for its operations and the necessary capital expenditures to maintain its stores.
Risk profile comparisonChewy faces intense competition from large e-commerce players like Amazon (AMZN -0.26%) and various mass merchandisers. Rapid expansion into physical veterinary clinics and the Canadian market adds operational complexity and cost management challenges. Handling sensitive consumer data also exposes the company to potential cybersecurity threats and complex regulatory requirements. Additionally, as a controlled company, potential conflicts of interest may limit the influence of individual shareholders.
TJX Companies is sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, such as inflation, that can impact consumer discretionary spending. Its off-price model depends on the ability to source high-quality merchandise at significant discounts from a global network of suppliers. Additionally, managing a workforce of roughly 377,000 associates presents risks regarding rising labor costs and the ongoing need to recruit talent.
Valuation comparisonOn a P/S ratio basis, Chewy appears much cheaper, while TJX Companies offers a slightly lower valuation relative to its Forward P/E and future earnings estimates.
MetricChewyTJX CompaniesForward P/E12.5x23.9xP/S ratio0.7x2.3xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
I'd go with TJX Companies. Its most recent quarter was another example of why this company has become one of the most dependable retailers in the world. Profitability and earnings both came in well ahead of expectations, and management raised its full-year outlook while announcing plans to accelerate store growth and expand its long-term global footprint. Customers are flocking to TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods in a consumer environment where value has never mattered more. That is a tailwind that shows no sign of slowing.
Chewy is not without its strengths. Autoship sales provide a steady, predictable revenue base, active customers are growing, and the expansion into pet health adds a new dimension to the story. But Chewy is growing at a modest pace in a pet market still under pressure from cautious consumer spending, and the path to the kind of consistent profitability TJX has delivered for decades is still being built.
Patient investors building a long-term portfolio tend to do well owning businesses that keep beating expectations in any economic environment. TJX has earned that description many times over.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about TJX (TJX - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
TJX currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.50, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 24 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.50 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 24 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 17 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 70.8% and 8.3% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for TJX
Check price target & stock forecast for TJX here>>>
The ABR suggests buying TJX, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Is TJX a Good Investment?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for TJX, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 0.6% over the past month to $5.22.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for TJX. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for TJX may serve as a useful guide for investors.
A downtrend has been apparent in TJX (TJX - Free Report) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 17.8% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.
We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.
So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.
However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.
Here's Why TJX Could Experience a TurnaroundThe heavy selling of TJX shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 17.78. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.
This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering TJX in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 0.6% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.
Moreover, TJX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Macy's beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year outlook before the bell, yet shares fell sharply while retail peers barely flinched. The reason comes down to where the money actually came from.
Shares of Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M | M Price Prediction) are down 5% to $20.45 in early Thursday trading. The slide arrives despite a fiscal second-quarter beat and a raised full-year outlook that the company delivered before the open.
The reaction looks company-specific, since retail peers are barely moving on the same session. That locates the response inside Macy’s own numbers and the composition of its raised guidance rather than in any broader repricing of department stores or off-price retail.
Macy’s came into today’s report carrying momentum. Macy’s stock was up 23% over the trailing year through Wednesday’s close, though it entered the session already down 18% over the past month.
Raised Outlook Carries a Tariff Asterisk Macy’s said overall comparable sales rose 2.7% across its three nameplates in the quarter, extending a five-quarter stretch of positive comps. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.63 against a $0.36 consensus, and revenue of $5.06 billion beat the $4.80 billion Street mark. Gross margin expanded 180 basis points to 41.5%, aided by tariff repayments landing in cost of goods sold.
The higher-end brands carried the mix. Bloomingdale’s posted comparable sales up 11.3%, its second straight quarter of double-digit growth, and Bluemercury comps rose 6.2%. The Reimagine 200 cohort, the operational proof of the three-year turnaround, ran comps of 1.9%.
The composition of the raise is where pushback shows up. Macy’s disclosed that it has received $116 million in tariff refunds, and the raised full-year earnings per share range of $2.15 to $2.35 includes a 5-cent per-share benefit from those repayments flowing to the bottom line. Most refund proceeds are being reinvested into stores and the Bold New Chapter turnaround plan rather than dropped through to profit.
The read from the early move is that part of the higher earnings bar is funded by policy repayments and only partly by operations. That’s the distinction being priced this morning, and it’s why a headline beat and a genuine raise are still producing a lower open.
Retail Peers Hold Steady Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE:KSS) stock is down just 0.9% to $17.36, a muted reaction from a name that leaned on its own $150 million tariff refund in its August report. If the market were repricing tariff-aided retail beats as a category, Kohl’s would be the obvious next stop.
Meanwhile, TJX (NYSE:TJX) stock is unchanged at $126.12, holding steady after its own August raise that carried a $331 million tariff refund benefit and posted consolidated comps of 4%. The off-price benchmark holds flat on Macy’s headline.
The sector check confirms it. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is down 0.3% on the session. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.54%, putting Macy’s move at a wide gap to both the retail basket and the broad market.
The read across the group is consistent. Kohl’s beat by a wider margin than Macy’s when it reported last month, with adjusted EPS of $1.28 against a $0.57 consensus, and TJX raised its own full-year adjusted EPS range to $5.15 to $5.20 in August. Neither name is rerating on Macy’s news today.
What to Watch Investors can watch for signs that Bloomingdale’s double-digit momentum and the reinvested refund dollars carry into cleaner second-half comps.
The broader retail read matters, as well. If Bloomingdale’s momentum and the reinvested tariff dollars translate into share gains during the holiday selling window, today’s dip could look premature. A fade in refund flow-through paired with softer operational comps would confirm the early skepticism showing up in Macy’s shares this morning.
Shareholders may want to size their Macy’s stock exposure to the story rather than to the headline, since the early reaction reads as a mark on guidance quality rather than a rejection of the turnaround. Approximately $1 billion remains under Macy’s buyback authorization, and management’s tone on reinvestment pacing versus repurchase could shape the next share-price move.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores have returned -17.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, which TJX falls in, has lost 9.2%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
TJX is expected to post earnings of $1.33 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.22 points to a change of +10.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +0.6%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.74 indicates a change of +9.9% from what TJX is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.9%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for TJX.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For TJX, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $15.81 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +4.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, $63.91 billion and $67.83 billion estimates indicate +5.9% and +6.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryTJX reported revenues of $15.18 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. EPS of $1.22 for the same period compares with $1.1 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.14 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.29%. The EPS surprise was +3.39%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
TJX is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about TJX. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The program provides 40 participants with expert-led programming, peer connections and practical support to help them pursue what matters most to them FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Sept. 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Marshalls (NYSE: TJX) announced today that applications are now open for year three of The Marshalls Good Stuff Accelerator Program, a virtual, 12-month experience designed to help 40 participants turn their personal and professional ambitions into action.
Key Takeaways TJX raises its global store target by 500 to 7,500, leaving room for more than 2,200 new locations.TJX plans to accelerate annual store-opening growth to 4% starting in fiscal 2028, up from 3%.TJX sees rural, urban and denser-market opportunities supporting broad-based expansion across its brands. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) has lifted its long-term global store target by 500 locations to 7,500 stores across its existing retail banners and current 10 countries in the latest earnings update. The company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2027 with 5,285 stores, leaving room for more than 2,200 additional locations under the revised target.
The expansion is centered partly on the U.S. business. TJX now sees TJ Maxx and Marshalls reaching a combined 3,300 stores, an increase of 300 from its prior long-term potential. The HomeGoods division’s long-term target has also been increased by 200 stores to 2,000.
The company plans to accelerate annual store opening growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028, up from the previously discussed 3% pace. Several factors support the higher target. Marmaxx has opportunities in rural markets where department stores are closing, while sustained comparable-store growth has created scope to place stores closer together than previously expected. Smaller-format stores also allow expansion in densely populated urban areas.
New stores have been exceeding expectations for an extended period. The additional store growth is expected to be broad-based across the company’s brands rather than concentrated in only one or two divisions. TJX Companies also expects sufficient availability of quality merchandise to support the expansion plans as it moves toward the higher store target and faster opening pace.
How TJX Stacks Up Against ROST and BURL on Store GrowthRoss Stores (ROST - Free Report) is also stepping up physical expansion, raising its 2026 new-store opening plan to 115 locations from 110. This includes about 90 Ross Dress for Less and 25 dd’s DISCOUNTS stores. Ross Stores opened 47 stores in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Ross Stores also targets roughly 5% annual unit growth, while recent openings in existing and newer markets have been running ahead of plan.
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) is also pursuing aggressive store expansion, ending the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with 1,287 locations. Burlington Stores expects about 115 net new stores in fiscal 2026, while 149 net new stores opened over the past 12 months, representing 13% store-count growth. Burlington Stores remains confident in opening at least 110 net new stores annually and reaching, or likely exceeding, 1,500 stores by end-2028.
TJX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of TJX Companies have fallen 16.8% in the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 6.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, TJX trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.88X, down from the industry’s average of 27.82X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share has inched up 1 cent to $5.22 and $5.74, respectively, in the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Dividend stocks can be great buys when they're trading near their lows. Their yields are higher than normal, and at low valuations, there may be room for them to rally. The key thing, however, is for investors to understand the risks of doing so, because not all dividend stocks are necessarily safe buys, and high yields could also raise red flags.
Three dividend stocks that have been struggling and that are trading near their 52-week lows right now include PepsiCo (PEP -0.66%), TJX Companies (TJX -0.08%), and Nike (NKE -0.95%). Here's a look at how high their yields have gotten, and if these stocks could make for great income investments right now, or if investors are better off steering clear of them.
Image source: Getty Images.
PepsiCoBeverage and snack giant PepsiCo currently pays investors a dividend that yields 4.3%. Over the past 12 months, the stock has fallen by more than 6%, and it's trading near its 52-week low of $133.73.
The company has a solid portfolio of top brands, centered around its Pepsi beverages and Lay's potato chips. There isn't anything inherently risky with the business itself, as it has been generating solid numbers, but it may simply not be doing enough to win investors over. Through the first two quarters of the year, its revenue has grown by just 2.5% organically.
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While its growth may not be all that exciting, that doesn't mean the stock can't still make for an excellent dividend investment. Its yield is high, and with a payout ratio of 75%, there aren't any glaring concerns about the stock's dividend. Trading at just 18 times its trailing earnings, this can be a great dividend investment to buy right now.
TJX CompaniesShares of TJX are down 14% since the beginning of the year, pushing its yield up to around 1.5%. While that isn't terribly high, it's still better than the S&P 500 average of around 1.1%.
The off-price retailer has been doing well in recent quarters and posted solid 4% comparable sales growth in its most recent period, which went up until Aug. 1. It's a decent growth rate, but unfortunately, when a retail stock is trading at a rich valuation, as TJX has been, it can be vulnerable to a decline despite a good performance.
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Currently, the stock trades at around 25 times its trailing earnings, and earlier in the year it was north of 30 -- a high multiple to pay for this type of business. The biggest knock on TJX may simply have been its inflated valuation. While it's a good long-term buy, I'd wait for a deeper dip in its price before buying it, as it's still a bit expensive.
NikeRounding out this list is Nike, which has been on the biggest decline of the three. It's already down about 40% in 2026, as its turnaround efforts have failed to convince investors it's on the right track. Growth has been hard to come by, and there's no guarantee things will get any better for the apparel company in the near term.
Nike's yield is up to 4.3% right now, which is far higher than normal, indicating just how steep the decline has been; five years ago, its yield was less than 1%. The problem is that, given the stock's tremendous decline in recent years, the high yield is a bad sign rather than a positive one.
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Due to uncertainty around the company's future and question marks about its turnaround efforts, Nike isn't a stock I'd buy for its yield. The dividend may need to be cut in the future if things don't go as planned and the business needs to divert greater resources toward its growth strategy.
TJX Companies (TJX +0.67%) had a rough time in late summer, at least as far as its stock was concerned. The company, best known for operating the TJ Maxx and Marshalls chains of discount department stores, released its latest quarterly earnings report, and investors found it dispiriting.
So too did several analysts, with two going so far as to downgrade their recommendations on the retailer. This combination of factors drove TJX's stock down by almost 15% last month.
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Not good enough for Mr. Market TJX reported its fiscal 2027 second-quarter figures on Aug. 19, revealing that total net sales were just under $15.2 billion, up 5% year over year. That was on the back of comparable sales growth of 4% across all of the company's divisions (which comprises the Marmaxx unit of TJMaxx and Marshalls, plus the HomeGoods brand and operations in Canada and overseas).
In terms of profitability, TJX also posted improvements. Net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) climbed by a robust 22% to $1.52 billion. On a non-GAAP (adjusted), per-share basis, that line item rose by 11% to $1.22.
Neither metric was far from its corresponding consensus analyst estimate. Revenue was basically in line with the average prognosticator projection, while the company's adjusted net profit was slightly above the collective expectation of $1.19.
Those trailing numbers didn't keep investors up at night, but stocks trade on future potential, not past results -- and that was the issue with this earnings report.
This, even though TJX actually raised its bottom-line guidance for the entirety of 2027 -- and for the second time in a row. Adjusted net income for the year is now expected to be $5.15 to $5.20 per share, up from the previous forecast of $5.08 to $5.15. It left its "comps" guidance intact at 3% to 4%. It added that it aims to increase its store count by 4% in fiscal 2028.
Yet the increased profitability range still sits under the average analyst estimate of $5.22 per share for the year. Investors can be rather unforgiving of companies that fall even an inch short of forward projections.
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A pair of downgrades So can analysts. Several professional TJX trackers lowered their price targets on the stock in the wake of the earnings release.
Two of them took the additional step of downgrading their TJX recommendations. Jefferies' Corey Tarlowe reduced his to hold from buy, while Gordon Haskett's Chuck Grom changed his from buy to accumulate (a midpoint between buy and hold). This had the expected negative effect of dampening sentiment on the retailer's stock.
TJX had done well in previous quarters, so this latest one looked weak in comparison. Unfortunately, the preceding frames have helped crank up its stock price, so now it appears a bit expensive on valuation grounds. I'm not down on the company, which isn't doing badly at all, but I'd be hesitant to buy the stock at its current level.
Investors with an interest in Retail - Discount Stores stocks have likely encountered both Dollar General (DG) and TJX (TJX). But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now?
Key Takeaways HomeGoods comp sales rose 7% in fiscal Q2 2027, while net sales climbed 10% to $2.51 billion.A higher average basket led comp growth, while customer transactions also increased across banners & regions.First-half HomeGoods comps rose 8%, with net sales up 10% to $5.01 billion from $4.54 billion. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) continues to see strong momentum at its HomeGoods division, which operates the HomeGoods and Homesense banners in the United States. The business offers a wide range of home merchandise across decorative, seasonal, kitchen, textile and giftware categories, combining replenishable products with its treasure-hunt shopping format.
HomeGoods delivered a solid second-quarter fiscal 2027 performance, with comparable sales rising 7%, up from 5% growth in the prior-year quarter. HomeGoods’ net sales increased 10% to $2,507 million from $2,286 million. The comp gain was primarily driven by a higher average basket, while customer transactions also increased. Performance was strong across both banners, all regions and income demographic bands.
Product demand was well spread across the assortment. Replenishable consumables helped support steady traffic, while decorative and higher-ticket categories, including lighting and wall merchandise, also performed well. Kitchen gadgets, linens, towels, sheets, giftware, gourmet food and seasonal decor were among the other areas highlighted.
The strength was also evident over the first six months of fiscal 2027. HomeGoods comparable sales increased 8%, compared with 5% a year earlier, while net sales rose 10% to $5,013 million from $4,540 million.
Overall, HomeGoods’ recent performance has been supported by strength across a broad range of merchandise, with both a higher average basket and increased customer transactions contributing to comparable-sales growth. With the recent gains extending across categories, banners and regions, HomeGoods’ sales momentum remains an important trend to watch as the year progresses.
TJX and Peers See Home Category StrengthRoss Stores (ROST - Free Report) also saw notable strength in Home during the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Home was one of Ross Stores’ strongest businesses and outpaced its average. Decorative home and housewares were particularly strong, posting mid-teens growth across Ross and dd’s. With comparable-store sales up 10%, primarily driven by traffic, Ross Stores’ Home performance contributed to broad-based sales strength.
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) saw improving performance in Home during the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The company’s Home business started to outperform the chain as it began lapping last year’s tariff-related assortment pressure. In July, Burlington Stores’ Home grew faster than the chain, with that trend continuing into August amid strength in home furnishings, kitchen essentials and toys. Burlington Stores noted that second-quarter comp growth was primarily driven by a higher basket.
TJX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of The TJX Companies have fallen 15% in the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 4.6%.
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From a valuation standpoint, TJX trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.30X, down from the industry’s average of 29.40X.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The TJX Companies’ fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share has inched up 1 cent to $5.21 and $5.73, respectively, in the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Peter Lynch built an impressive track record as the fund manager for Fidelity's Magellan Fund. Under his stewardship, from 1977 to 1990, the fund beat the S&P 500 index in 11 out of the 13 years. And it produced an impressive 29% average annual return.
Fortunately, Lynch shares his wisdom in a book called One Up on Wall Street. He describes his philosophy, which is buy what you know, research the company's fundamentals, and plan to make a long-term commitment.
With this in mind, here are two consumer goods companies that fit the bill.
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1. Costco Many people continue to shop at Costco Wholesale's (COST -0.17%) giant warehouses. If you've ever gone into one, you can usually see a crowd.
What makes Costco so special? After all, members pay an annual fee for the privilege. It offers a wide range of high-quality goods and services at low unit prices. It can do that by often offering items in bulk sizes.
Digging deeper into the numbers, membership retention and growth bear out Costco's continued appeal. Global renewal rates were about 90% in the fiscal third quarter (ended May 10), in line with historical retention rates. Meanwhile, paid members increased from 82.1 million to 82.9 million over the quarter.
Costco's same-store sales (comps) continue to grow, with a sharp 6.6% increase last quarter, after excluding foreign-currency translation effects and gasoline sales. This helped drive diluted earnings per share 15.2% higher versus a year ago, to $4.93.
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The company also still has a growth opportunity. It has been expanding, opening more than 20 warehouses annually. During the first three quarters of this year, management expanded by 16 locations and announced it would open another 13 in the last three months of the year.
2. TJX Companies TJX Companies' (TJX -0.90%) retail store banners include TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeSense. It sells merchandise like apparel, accessories, and furniture at steep discounts (20% to 60%) compared to other retailers.
It can do this because it buys merchandise that manufacturers need to sell for various reasons. These include faltering demand, canceled orders from other retailers, and out-of-season items.
Management buys opportunistically, and shoppers "treasure hunt," or seek items at attractive prices. This appeals to people, but particularly during tough economic times, when consumers can buy more goods at attractive prices.
TJX Companies' brands have continued to post impressive comps. Fiscal second-quarter comps gained 4% and were higher across all of its divisions. Diluted earnings per share grew 23.6% year over year to $1.36. The period ended on Aug. 1.
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Management continues to see room for expansion. It opened 129 new stores last year and 71 during the first half of this year. TJX had 5,285 stores as of Aug. 1.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about TJX (TJX - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
TJX currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.42, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 24 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.42 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 24 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 18 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 75% and 8.3% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for TJX
Check price target & stock forecast for TJX here>>>
The ABR suggests buying TJX, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Is TJX Worth Investing In?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for TJX, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 1% over the past month to $5.22.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for TJX. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for TJX may serve as a useful guide for investors.
TJX (TJX - Free Report) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 10% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.
So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.
However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.
Why TJX Could Bounce Back Before LongThe heavy selling of TJX shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 25.76. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.
This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering TJX in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 1% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.
Moreover, TJX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Shares of TJX (TJX - Free Report) have been struggling lately and have lost 6.7% over the past week. However, a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session, which could mean that the stock found support with bulls being able to counteract the bears. So, it could witness a trend reversal down the road.
While the formation of a hammer pattern is a technical indication of nearing a bottom with potential exhaustion of selling pressure, rising optimism among Wall Street analysts about the future earnings of this parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores is a solid fundamental factor that enhances the prospects of a trend reversal for the stock.
What is a Hammer Chart and How to Trade It?This is one of the popular price patterns in candlestick charting. A minor difference between the opening and closing prices forms a small candle body, and a higher difference between the low of the day and the open or close forms a long lower wick (or vertical line). The length of the lower wick being at least twice the length of the real body, the candle resembles a 'hammer.'
In simple terms, during a downtrend, with bears having absolute control, a stock usually opens lower compared to the previous day's close, and again closes lower. On the day the hammer pattern is formed, maintaining the downtrend, the stock makes a new low. However, after eventually finding support at the low of the day, some amount of buying interest emerges, pushing the stock up to close the session near or slightly above its opening price.
When it occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, this pattern signals that the bears might have lost control over the price. And, the success of bulls in stopping the price from falling further indicates a potential trend reversal.
Hammer candles can occur on any timeframe -- such as one-minute, daily, weekly -- and are utilized by both short-term as well as long-term investors.
Like every technical indicator, the hammer chart pattern has its limitations. Particularly, as the strength of a hammer depends on its placement on the chart, it should always be used in conjunction with other bullish indicators.
Here's What Makes the Trend Reversal More Likely for TJXAn upward trend in earnings estimate revisions that TJX has been witnessing lately can certainly be considered a bullish indicator on the fundamental side. That's because empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased 1%. What it means is that the sell-side analysts covering TJX are majorly in agreement that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
If this is not enough, you should note that TJX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. And stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 usually outperform the market. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Moreover, the Zacks Rank has proven to be an excellent timing indicator, helping investors identify precisely when a company's prospects are beginning to improve. So, for the shares of TJX, a Zacks Rank of 2 is a more conclusive fundamental indication of a potential turnaround.
For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.8% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: TJX (TJX - Free Report) Based in Framingham, MA, The TJX Companies, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the U.S. and worldwide. The company’s broad range of assortments at varying prices helps it to reach out to a broad range of consumers. In addition to these, The TJX Companies emphasizes a frequent flow of fresh merchandise to stores and online. As of Jan. 31, 2026, the company operated a total of over 5,214 stores across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Europe and Australia.
TJX is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Additionally, the company could be a top pick for growth investors. TJX has a Growth Style Score of B, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 10.4% for the current fiscal year.
Six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2027. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.05 to $5.22 per share. TJX boasts an average earnings surprise of +7.4%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, TJX should be on investors' short list.
Charlie O'Shea offers his perspective on the retail trade after Walmart (WMT), Ross Stores (ROST), and Target (TGT) posted varying earnings results. Focusing more on TJX Companies (TJX), he sees the stock's sell-off after earnings as a buying opportunity.
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Shares of Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST | ROST Price Prediction) are rising 8% to $246.60 Friday morning after the off-price chain posted a blowout Q2 fiscal 2026 report. The move is doing analytical work on its own, because the broader retail tape isn’t following along.
Meanwhile, TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) stock is up 1% to $141.45, catching a modest read-across from the off-price winner. Additionally, Macy’s (NYSE:M) shares are up 1% to $22.82, representing a mild bounce much like TJX stock. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is unchanged at $87, underscoring that today’s story is one of dispersion within retail.
Blowout Quarter Fuels the Ross Stores Rally Ross Stores reported revenue of $6.26 billion, up 13%, against analyst estimates of $6.15 billion. GAAP EPS came in at $2.66, ahead of the $1.95 consensus and above prior company guidance of $1.85 to $1.93. Net income reached $851.3 million versus $508 million a year ago.
Comparable store sales at Ross Stores rose 10%, the second consecutive double-digit quarter, driven by customer traffic. Operating profit hit $1.1 billion, with operating margin at 17.6% versus 11.5% a year earlier. Results included roughly $253 million of operating income and about $0.60 per share from IEEPA tariff refunds, but ex-benefit operating margin still expanded 205 basis points against a 130 to 150 bps plan.
CEO Jim Conroy declared the quarter delivered “stellar sales and earnings growth,” pointing to a supply backdrop that keeps improving. He asserted, “There’s a lot of goods being canceled… we expect that to continue. Off-price at the end of the day will probably continue to be a winning sector.” Conroy also noted “the new customers we are attracting span a broad range of income demographics and age cohorts.”
Guidance Raised Across the Board Ross Stores lifted full-year fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $8.61 to $8.77 from $7.50 to $7.74, including the tariff benefit. Q3 guidance calls for EPS of $1.75 to $1.83 and comps up 6% to 7%, well above the consensus 3.1% comp print. Q4 comps are guided up 4% to 5%.
During the quarter, Ross Stores opened 47 stores and raised its 2026 opening plan to 115 from 110, split roughly 90 Ross Dress for Less and 25 dd’s DISCOUNTS. That brings the fleet to 2,328 locations versus 2,233 a year ago. The company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $319 million in the quarter and remains on track for $1.275 billion in fiscal 2026 buybacks under a two-year $2.55 billion authorization approved in March.
Peers Split Between Beneficiary and Source TJX Companies is the larger off-price operator, with more than 5,200 stores across ten countries and a $155.42 billion market cap spanning TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Homesense, Sierra, Winners, and TK Maxx. The stock is only ticking higher because TJX Companies already reported and receives a read-across from Conroy’s winning-sector thesis rather than a direct catalyst.
Macy’s sits on the other side of the trade, with a $5.94 billion market cap across Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Bluemercury. Conroy’s cancelled-order comment describes mainstream department store weakness as the supply feeding off-price closeout racks, so Macy’s stands as a source of Ross Stores’ merchandise advantage. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is a broad retail fund spanning off-price, department stores, e-commerce, and specialty retail, which is why one 8% winner leaves the fund flat.
Macro Backdrop Favors the Off-Price Winner WTI crude oil sits at $86.80 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yields 4.69%, with CME FedWatch pricing a 34.6% chance the Federal Reserve hikes at its September meeting. Higher fuel and borrowing costs squeeze the mainstream consumer, and that pressure is what pushes traffic toward off-price. University of Michigan consumer sentiment reads 49.5, deep in pessimistic territory, which historically supports the trade-down narrative.
Ross Stores expects only modest low-single-digit price increases in the second half, keeping its value gap wide. Traders can watch for a fade into the close, since profit-taking on a one-time tariff benefit remains a risk after such a sharp gap higher. Investors may want to keep an eye on whether TJX Companies stock builds on the read-across when it next reports, and whether Macy’s cancelled orders keep feeding the off-price supply pipeline.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) on Wednesday posted upbeat second-quarter results.
Net sales rose 5% year over year to $15.18 billion, beating the $15.17 billion analyst estimate. Adjusted diluted earnings rose 11% to $1.22 per share, beating the $1.19 estimate.
TJX raised its fiscal 2027 GAAP earnings guidance to $5.31 to $5.36 per share from $5.08 to $5.15. The new range is above the $5.21 analyst estimate. However, adjusted earnings guidance of $5.15 to $5.20 per share misses the $5.22 analyst estimate.
TJX also raised its adjusted pretax margin outlook to 12% to 12.1% and maintained comparable sales growth guidance of 3% to 4%.
Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President of The TJX Companies, Inc., said, “I am very pleased with our above-plan consolidated results in the second quarter. Overall comparable sales increased 4%, above our plan, and both profitability and earnings per share well exceeded our expectations. While sales at Marmaxx were below our expectations, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International all delivered terrific comp sales increases of 6% to 7%, which underscores the strength of our global diversified business.”
TJX shares fell 2.3% to trade at $141.28 on Thursday.
These analysts made changes to their price targets on TJX following earnings announcement.
Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Binetti maintained the stock with an Outperform rating and lowered the price target from $175 to $173. Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow maintained the stock with an Equal-Weight rating and lowered the price target from $160 to $140. Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih maintained the stock with an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $190 to $188. Latest Private Market Opportunities
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Key Takeaways TJX raises the FY27 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.20 while keeping comps growth at 3-4%.TJX calls Marmaxx's 1% comps gain a self-inflicted miss tied to merchandise mix, stores and timing.TJX lifts its long-term store target by 500 to 7500 and plans 4% annual opening growth from FY28. The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) used its second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings call to frame Marmaxx’s softer performance as a correctable execution problem while leaning on stronger results elsewhere and a larger store-growth opportunity.
Adjusted earnings of $1.22 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18. Revenues of $15.18 billion beat the consensus estimate of $15.14 billion. Management raised its full-year profit outlook but kept comparable-sales (comps) expectations unchanged.
TJX Raises FY27 Profit OutlookCFO John Klinger said that fiscal 2027 adjusted pre-tax margin is expected at 12-12.1%, suggesting growth of 30-40 basis points from that reported last year.
Klinger also raised the adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15-$5.20, indicating 9-10% year-over-year growth. Full-year comps are expected to rise 3-4%.
For the fiscal third quarter, Klinger guided comps growth of 2-3% and adjusted earnings of $1.30-$1.32 per share.
TJX Companies Moves to Fix MarmaxxCEO and President Ernie Herrman said that Marmaxx’s 1% comps increase fell below expectations because the division did not have the right merchandise mix in the right stores at the right time.
In response to a BofA Securities analyst, Herrman called the issue self-inflicted and said that management had identified the affected areas. Marmaxx improved in August, with greater improvement expected by the holiday quarter.
A Goldman Sachs analyst pressed on prevention. Herrman said that TJX added systematic planning processes while involving buying, planning and senior merchandising leaders in the correction.
TJX Accelerates Store ExpansionHerrman revealed that TJX plans to increase annual store-opening growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028 and raised its long-term store target by 500 locations to 7,500.
Klinger told a JPMorgan analyst that Marmaxx gained 300 stores of long-term potential and HomeGoods gained 200. He cited rural markets, denser store placement and smaller formats as expansion opportunities.
Herrman added that Sierra and Homesense are expected to grow well above the 4% corporate pace. Management also said that new stores have been exceeding expectations.
TJX Companies Gets Support Beyond MarmaxxKlinger said that HomeGoods delivered a 7% comps increase, while TJX Canada rose 6% and TJX International advanced 7%, helping offset Marmaxx.
A Morgan Stanley analyst focused on HomeGoods’ sales and margin momentum. Herrman pointed to broad category strength, consumables, store presentation and a differentiated treasure-hunt assortment.
Klinger added that HomeGoods’ adjusted segment margin increased 240 basis points to 12.4%, supported by top-line growth, operating efficiencies and merchandise-margin improvement.
TJX Keeps Back-Half Assumptions MeasuredKlinger said that fiscal third-quarter adjusted gross margin is expected to be 32.1-32.2%, suggesting a fall of 40-50 basis points from that reported last year because of higher fuel costs.
Asked by an Evercore ISI analyst about second-half margins, Klinger informed that higher fuel and freight costs, slower planned comps growth, and merchandise-margin comparisons explain the first-half-to-second-half shift.
Herrman told a Bernstein analyst that recent ticket growth should moderate. He added that category mix and branded buying opportunities, rather than top-down pricing targets, drive ticket changes.
TJX Companies Maintains Offensive PostureHerrman said that the second half will focus on merchandising, gifting, marketing and traffic, supported by strong branded-merchandise availability.
Management’s posture combined near-term repair work at Marmaxx with broader expansion plans. The raised profit outlook and store target sit alongside unchanged full-year comps guidance.
TJX's Zacks Signals Favor Growth & MomentumTJX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Its Growth Score of A, Momentum Score of B and VGM Score of B are favorable, while its Value Score of D indicates weaker value characteristics under the Style Score framework. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Style Scores are designed to complement the Zacks Rank, with A and B grades preferred. A Rank #3 can still be held under the framework, but the Zacks Rank may change as earnings estimates are revised after the reported quarter.
