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Smurfit Westrock (SW - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -16.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this paper and packaging company would post earnings of $0.36 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.33, delivering a surprise of -8.33%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.

Smurfit Westrock, which belongs to the Zacks Paper and Related Products industry, posted revenues of $8.03 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $7.94 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Smurfit Westrock shares have added about 31.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.5%.

What's Next for Smurfit Westrock?While Smurfit Westrock has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Smurfit Westrock was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.78 on $8.31 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $2.24 on $32.17 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Paper and Related Products is currently in the bottom 14% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR (SUZ - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 12.

This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -91.6%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 284.6% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR's revenues are expected to be $2.32 billion, down 1.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Smurfit Westrock (SW - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 29. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis paper and packaging company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -6.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $7.99 billion, up 0.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 4.98% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Smurfit Westrock?For Smurfit Westrock, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Smurfit Westrock will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Smurfit Westrock would post earnings of $0.36 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.33, delivering a surprise of -8.33%.

The company has not been able to beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Smurfit Westrock doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.