SpaceX v Texasu odpálila Starship při 13. testovacím letu a vypustila prvních 20 satelitů Starlink V3. Mise má ověřit raketu pro rutinní provoz do konce roku 2026.
Item 1 of 3 The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy v3 booster in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 22, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius
[1/3]The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
WASHINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) - SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab Starship rocket lifted off from Texas on Friday and deployed its first 20 upgraded Starlink satellites into suborbital space, one of many testing goals in the company's 13th test mission as it races to begin routine service with the rocket by the end of the year.
The roughly 400-foot-tall (122 m) Starship rocket system blasted off around 6:50 p.m. ET from SpaceX's Starbase company town, with the Super Heavy first stage booster sending its Starship upper stage on a suborbital trajectory. The roughly hour-long mission will conclude with Starship's reentry through Earth's atmosphere and a splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
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As Starship approached 16,400 miles per hour (26,400 kph) in space some 10 minutes into its flight, the Super Heavy booster returned to Earth and impacted the Gulf of Mexico harder than expected, SpaceX said, though it had reignited more engines than its botched return in May during a previous test flight.
The Starship test flight is SpaceX's 13th since 2023, featuring a new version of the rocket crucial to the company's plans to expand Starlink, land humans on the moon for NASA and eventually deploy thousands of artificial intelligence-processing satellites in orbit.
Twenty minutes into its spaceflight, Starship began deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, dispensing them one by one via the ship's "Pez"-like payload deployment. Flying over a shadowed Earth, thunderstorms with flashes of lightning were visible in the background 118 miles (190 km) below, according to a camera fixed to the rocket and streamed live by SpaceX.
A crowd of SpaceX engineers in SpaceX's Hawthorne, California, facilities could be heard on the live stream cheering at the rocket's mission milestones, at one point chanting "USA."
While in space, the Starlink satellites — a new "V3" version with greater bandwidth capabilities — will deploy solar arrays and antennae to briefly connect with SpaceX's Starlink network of some 10,000 satellites orbiting above.
The Starlinks are the first to be deployed by Starship, though they will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory into Earth's atmosphere and burn up.
Some of them have spotlights and cameras that will record Starship's heat shield as it hits intense atmospheric friction later in the mission, giving SpaceX key testing insight into how well the rocket survives its return from space.
SpaceX plans to use Starship by the end of 2026 to begin launching thousands of Starlink V3 satellites, expanding the constellation's capacity to be able to connect directly to mobile devices such as cell phones. The current network only connects to Starlink-branded dishes.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Chris Reese
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Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
HSBC zahájila pokrytí SpaceX s doporučením Hold a cílovou cenou 115 USD, což podle ní znamená jen malý prostor pro růst. Banka říká, že „Musk premium“ je už v ceně.
Investors betting on SpaceX SPCX shares are buying into more than just reusable orbital rockets and a global satellite internet network – they are purchasing a ticket to the visionary leadership of Elon Musk.
However, according to a recent analysis from HSBC, that celebrated “Musk factor” may already be fully priced into the equity.
Analysts at the bank initiated coverage on the aerospace pioneer with a Hold rating and a $115 target price, indicating absence of any meaningful upside from current levels.
Note that SpaceX stock has been in a sharp downtrend in recent weeks. At writing, it’s trading even below its IPO price of $135.
Standard financial formulas used for traditional conglomerates, SPACs, or biotech firms simply fail to reflect how the market rates elite founders who reshape global industries.
To capture this reality, HSBC departed from classic metrics and built a custom sum-of-the-parts model featuring a 2x “innovation premium”.
The benchmark for this multiplier was drawn directly from Tesla’s first decade on public markets, leveraging Musk’s established track record in disruptive manufacturing and commercial deployment.
The bank noted that while analysts often apply holding company discounts, special founder premiums are warranted when leaders consistently upend whole sectors.
Yet even with this generous multiplier factored in, HSBC concludes that current market prices leave very little room for short-term upside on SPCX shares.
The core takeaway from HSBC’s base-case framework is that today’s market valuation already anticipates seamless execution across SpaceX’s main business pillars.
Investors have fully embedded expectations for Starlink's expanding global subscriber footprint, high-frequency Falcon launch manifests, and early-stage spatial artificial intelligence initiatives.
However, the report cautions that for SpaceX shares to breach higher territory, the company must overdeliver; HSBC did outline an optimistic “blue sky” scenario valuation of $293 per share.
But achieving it requires aggressive operational milestones: commercial viability for the next-generation Starship rocket by 2027, doubling overall launch throughput relative to base estimates, extracting significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from Starlink, and securing top-tier software multiples for its internal AI infrastructure.
While long-term bulls point to that $293 optimistic view, short-term realities on the trading floor reflect heightened scrutiny.
SPCX stock has faced headwinds following technical delays around its pivotal 13th Starship test flight and market anxiety over massive insider share unlock periods approaching in August.
While institutional backers continue to view Starship as the key to unlocking exponential payload scale, HSBC’s balanced stance highlights that execution risks cannot be ignored.
Until SpaceX consistently proves out Starship's full orbital reusability and commercial monetization, the stock appears bound to its fundamental trajectory, leaving the famous Musk premium firmly baked into the price for now.
At 6:45 p.m. ET tonight, SpaceX (SPCX -2.85%) gets a third try at its most consequential launch as a public company. Starship Flight 13 has a 90-minute window to lift off from the company's Starbase site in Texas, carrying the first 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," CEO Elon Musk wrote on X after the first attempt on July 16. SpaceX swapped out engines, and then weather postponed the second try on Thursday.
The stock could use the win. Shares sit at about $112 as of this writing, roughly 1% above their all-time low of $110.85 and well below the $135 price from June's initial public offering (IPO).
Image source: The White House.
What tonight actually decides is the timeline of Starlink's next capacity leap. Each V3 satellite is designed to deliver about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, roughly 10 times what the current generation of satellites provides. A full Starship load of about 60 of them would add roughly 60 terabits per second to the network, about 20 times what a Falcon 9 launch delivers today. That capacity is what lets a satellite network sell faster service to more subscribers without congestion. It's the foundation of the company's plan to turn Starlink into a gigabit-speed internet provider.
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The satellites can only ride on Starship, though, and Starship has kept them grounded for eight days now. The 20 satellites aboard are a deployment test: They will extend their solar arrays and antennas and attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation. Until that demonstration works, the V3 capacity ramp stays theoretical.
A successful flight tonight won't settle the argument over the stock, which still carries a market value near $1.5 trillion against a business that loses money. The next major financial update arrives Aug. 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company. But a clean deployment would show the next generation of the company's biggest product working in space before those numbers land. After six weeks of nearly uninterrupted decline, that would count as the first hard piece of good news this stock has had.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX v srpnu uvolní k prodeji asi 911 milionů dříve uzamčených akcií, čímž se volně obchodovatelný podíl zvýší zhruba na 12 %. Další prodeje mohou tlačit cenu dolů.
When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.73%), also known as SpaceX, went public on June 12, only about 4.9% of its 13.2 billion shares were put up for sale, an unusually small public float.
But that percentage is set to more than double in August as many owners of pre-IPO shares will be partially released from the standard lock-up agreements.
This week, the space exploration, satellite, and artificial intelligence firm headed by Elon Musk announced that it will deliver its first earnings report as a public company on Aug. 4. As per the rules set out in the company's prospectus, two trading days later, pre-IPO shareholders will be able to sell some 911 million of their locked-up shares, bringing the float to about 12%. Even more shares will be released if the stock trades at 30% above its IPO price on five of the 10 trading days prior to the earnings release.
Image source: Getty Images.
Essentially, the 180-day lock-up agreement expires in tranches, with more shares set to be released in September, November, and December. Elon Musk and some other significant investors are subject to a one-year lock-up. Musk owns around 40% of SpaceX shares, though he controls more than 80% of the company's voting power through a dual-class share structure.
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And as SpaceX employees begin to liquidate their holdings to diversify out of the company's stock -- a normal occurrence after companies go public -- that selling could put downward pressure on the share price.
So, should you pick up a few SpaceX shares?
Well, that's a tricky question. After an initial bump in the first few days after the IPO, when investors bid the stock above $225, it has since retreated and now trades at around $121 a share, well below the $135 IPO price. Such price movement in an IPO stock is not unusual, but given that SpaceX is not yet profitable, it may take investors a while to regain their initial enthusiasm.
Matthew Benjamin has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SPCX ve čtvrtek klesly o více než 3 % před odloženým 13. testovacím letem Starship, který má být pro investory klíčovým katalyzátorem. Akcie už ve středu spadly o 6,7 %.
SpaceX SPCX shares fell more than 3% on Thursday as investors awaited the company's delayed Starship test flight, a mission widely viewed as a key catalyst for the newly public space and artificial intelligence company.
The stock traded around $111.35 in early trading after tumbling 6.7% on Wednesday, extending a volatile stretch following its record-setting initial public offering.
Broader markets were also weaker, with futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
Investor attention is centered on SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight, scheduled to lift off from Texas later today.
The launch was originally planned for July 16 but was postponed for a week because of an engine issue.
The mission is expected to be closely watched by investors looking for evidence that the company can continue advancing its launch capabilities as it seeks to justify its premium valuation.
Shares have struggled since their initial surge following the IPO, with valuation concerns weighing on sentiment.
According to the information provided, SpaceX trades at roughly 40 times estimated 2026 sales, a multiple that investors have questioned given the company's size and current financial profile.
Bearish investors have continued to add to their positions as the stock declined below its IPO price.
According to Reuters, citing Ortex Technologies data through Tuesday, short sellers are sitting on an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits since SpaceX's mid-June listing.
The stock has fallen below its $135 IPO price after reaching a post-listing high of $225.64 and dropped to a record low of $115.26 on Wednesday.
"There is no sign of short sellers taking profits on SpaceX," Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg told Reuters.
"If anything they are leaning in harder," Hillerberg added.
According to Ortex, approximately 360 million SpaceX shares, representing about 56% of the free float, were on loan through Tuesday, indicating sustained bearish positioning.
Chief Executive Elon Musk responded earlier this week with a warning aimed at investors betting against the company.
“Survival probability of firms who maintain significant short position in SPCX over time is very low,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Analysts remain constructiveDespite the recent share price weakness, Wall Street analysts continue to maintain a largely positive outlook on SpaceX.
According to LSEG data, 27 of the 32 analysts covering the stock recommend buying it, while four have Hold-equivalent ratings and one recommends selling.
Supportive analysts argue that the company's Starlink satellite internet business, government launch operations, and Musk's history of attracting investor interest justify a valuation premium despite SpaceX reporting a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year.
Analysts have also identified Thursday's Starship test flight as a potential catalyst, with investors expected to assess the company's execution in its launch business ahead of its upcoming earnings report and the continued expansion of its public float.
SpaceX po úspěšném vypuštění Starshipu může čelit obrovské potřebě kapitálu: Morgan Stanley odhaduje záporný volný peněžní tok až do roku 2035, průměrný roční cash burn 84 miliard USD v letech 2027 až 2034 a dodatečné financování kolem 700 miliard USD.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.08%) had to abort its 13th Starship test flight after some of its engines failed to ignite. Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable super-heavy-lift vehicle, and once it's ready to operate commercially, it could significantly reduce the cost of putting payloads into space, such as Starlink satellites or orbital data center satellites. Getting it off the ground (pun intended) will be key to the company achieving revenue growth and earnings that meet the market's high expectations.
SpaceX will have another go at the Starship test launch, and many more tests and launches will come over the next few years. A single aborted launch does not significantly impact the company's long-term viability.
The bigger risk to SpaceX and its investors involves what will happen if it successfully brings Starship into service: The company will need to raise massive amounts of capital over the better part of the next decade, even based on some of the most bullish outlooks for the business.
Image source: Getty Images.
This SpaceX bull just highlighted a major risk to the stock Morgan Stanley analysts have put a $300 price target on SpaceX stock. They cite its "near-monopoly launch economics," which will enable its satellite connectivity and AI businesses to scale up at a cost advantage.
Indeed, SpaceX can already launch its low earth orbit satellites for Starlink at a lower cost than any rival. And its technology also enables it to launch rockets at a higher cadence than anyone else. It can build faster and cheaper than anyone in the rocket launch industry.
But SpaceX is competing with terrestrial telecom companies and data centers. That's why Starship, which can carry much larger payloads and can be rebuilt and relaunched faster than SpaceX's current Falcon rockets, will be essential to scaling the business further.
Morgan Stanley sees Starship opening the door to serious revenue growth, but it will also require substantial capital to scale that business to the levels its analysts estimate. In fact, the analysts don't expect SpaceX to produce positive free cash flow until 2035. They estimate the company's average cash burn at $84 billion per year between 2027 and 2034, with capital expenditures peaking in 2031 at $300 billion.
In other words, SpaceX will need to raise about $700 billion in additional capital. "If debt markets cannot absorb this financing need, SpaceX may need to issue equity, reduce growth investment, or slow deployment," lead analyst Adam Jonas wrote in his note to investors.
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Importantly, SpaceX isn't the only tech company with significant financial demands. We've seen the major hyperscalers issue both debt and equity this year to raise cash to fund their AI data center build-outs. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates this year due to elevated inflation.
As a result, the cost of capital is rising. That could mean SpaceX will have to pay higher interest rates on whatever bonds it issues. Or, if the bond market cannot absorb another $700 billion of SpaceX's debt, its stock price will likely decline as it dilutes shareholders by raising funds via new equity issues.
The other option would be for SpaceX to raise less capital and slow its Starship, Starlink, and orbital data center build-outs. But that will lead to slower growth and, subsequently, a lower stock price.
SpaceX's capital requirements are a huge overhang on the stock, no matter how it raises that cash. Investors need to be aware of that risk, even if they're bullish on the technology.
SpaceX plánuje na 23. července 13. testovací let Starshipu po několika zrušených pokusech. Úspěch je klíčový pro komercializaci rakety a další růst firmy.
SpaceX (SPCX -6.70%) is once again looking to launch a test flight of its Starship megarocket. Investors should be paying very close attention, as the impact on SpaceX’s stock price should be meaningful.
After several aborted attempts, the company is looking to complete the rocket’s thirteenth test flight on July 23. As with most SpaceX launches, the attempt will be livestreamed via the company’s website.
“The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America,” SpaceX explains. “There have been several modifications to hardware and software to address issues seen on the previous flight.”
The impact of this test flight for SpaceX cannot be overstated. In many ways, SpaceX’s long-term growth plans hinge on the company’s ability to successfully commercialize its Starship rocket.
If you’re a current or potential SpaceX investor, there are two things you need to know.
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1. Starship is critical for SpaceX growth plansIn its IPO prospectus filed earlier this year, SpaceX was not shy about predicting its growth potential.
“We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” the company boasted. “We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion.”
Digging deeper, it may be surprising to learn that SpaceX attributes just $370 billion to what it calls “space-enabled solutions”. That bucket includes the total revenue potential of commercializing its Starship rockets.
With a market cap well above $2 trillion, successfully commercializing rockets may not seem critical to SpaceX’s long-term plan, given its relatively low growth potential. But investors must understand that the success of SpaceX’s Starship rocket will enable other growth opportunities that are much more lucrative long term. In other words, Starship’s value won’t be relegated to payload fees alone.
For example, SpaceX attributes $1.6 trillion of its total addressable market to its Starlink internet service. If successful, its Starship rocket would dramatically increase the number of satellites SpaceX can launch in any given year while also lowering the cost of getting them into space.
In other words, SpaceX’s Starship rocket will increase the odds that SpaceX will be able to realize as much of its claimed $1.6 trillion opportunity as possible.
Meanwhile, SpaceX attributes a massive $26.5 trillion of its total $28.5 trillion addressable market to a single opportunity: AI. While this bucket contains many smaller opportunities, one of SpaceX’s biggest growth catalysts should be the realization of orbital data centers.
Orbital data centers are exactly what they sound like: data centers that operate in space. In space, data centers can take better advantage of solar energy and low ambient temperatures, lowering ongoing operating costs.
There are many technical challenges to getting data centers to operate successfully in space. One of the biggest, however, is simply getting these systems into space economically. If successful, SpaceX’s Starship rocket would meaningfully improve the company’s chances of doing so.
Image Source: Getty Images
2. Competition for Starship is heating upSpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, which will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.
Government entities like China’s CNSA and India’s ISRO are pursuing their own rocket developments. Meanwhile, private companies, including Blue Origin, Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.91%), and Relativity Space are also aggressively pursuing the development of their own rocket systems.
SpaceX’s rocket program, however, is unique in terms of its vertical integration.
“SpaceX has also effectively achieved a high degree of vertical integration,” observes Government Technology, a public sector magazine. “It owns almost all parts of its supply chain, designing, building, and testing all its major hardware components in-house, with a minimal use of suppliers. That gives it not just control over its hardware but considerably lower costs, and the price tag is the top consideration for launch contracts.”
It’s hard to disagree about SpaceX’s success, both in terms of its launch achievements and its cost competitiveness. But it’s also clear that competition is heating up.
If SpaceX’s upcoming test flight is successful, that will help clear the path for the full commercialization of Starship. In this scenario, SpaceX will once again put itself ahead of the pack in terms of both technology and launch costs. Both of those factors will prove critical to the company’s ability to execute on its long-term growth potential.
SpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, a fact that will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.
Cathie Wood říká, že SpaceX by mohla být nejdůležitější firmou v historii, a ARK dokupuje i po 38% poklesu od nedávného vrcholu. Firma čeká na uvolnění akcií k obchodování za 116 miliard USD.
Cathie Wood is doing the Cathie Wood thing again. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is down 38% from its recent peak and trading below its IPO price; the lockup clock is ticking, and the founder of the firm that manages $30 billion in assets just told Fox Business on July 22, 2026, that the company “could become the most important company in history.” Not the decade. History. ARK is buying more instead of trimming.
The underlying claim is more interesting than the headline, because Wood is not defending a rocket business anymore. She is defending an AI holding company that happens to own the world’s cheapest way to leave the atmosphere. The public-market proxies for this thesis, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), tell you what the market thinks of the space-and-AI trade right now. Tesla is down 14% year to date, and Rocket Lab is down 27% over the past month. Wood is buying anyway.
The Moat Wood Is Actually Defending “SpaceX has a first mover advantage. It will be difficult. It has a ten year lead and the key has been reusable rockets.” That decade of iteration shows up in one number that matters more than any valuation multiple. SpaceX controls 70% of satellites in orbit. Reusable boosters are the reason. Every competitor has to build the flywheel from zero while SpaceX is already spinning it.
Rocket Lab is the closest publicly traded pure-play alternative, and Peter Beck’s team is running the correct playbook. Q1 2026 revenue hit $200.35 million, up 63.46% year over year, with a backlog of $2.20 billion and non-GAAP gross margins of 43.0%. Neutron, the medium-lift vehicle meant to compete with Falcon 9, is targeted for its debut launch later in 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure pushed the timeline. That is the state of “second place” in launch. Impressive, growing, and still years behind.
The Real Thesis Is Orbital Data Centers Rockets are the setup. The punchline is compute. Wood argued that “The secret to scaling technologies is falling costs as units increase… SpaceX has a first mover advantage with 70% of the satellites and beyond that we have the global data centers, orbital data centers so they will be the most economic and will allow Elon and team the opportunity to develop… some of the most sophisticated frontier models in the world at the lowest cost.”
If you own launch, you own the cheapest way to put racks of GPUs into orbit where solar is free, and cooling is a physics problem instead of a water bill. The GAO flagged this exact concept in April, noting that data centers could account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028 and that since January 2026, the FCC has received three applications from U.S. companies for large satellite constellations operating as data centers. Wood says SpaceX is already renting data center capacity to Anthropic and Google. If that scales, the company competes with hyperscalers, not Boeing (NYSE:BA).
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Tesla is the tell. Tesla disclosed a roughly $2 billion equity investment in SpaceX in Q1 2026 and is partnering with SpaceX on a vertically integrated semiconductor fab at Gigafactory Texas. Elon is stitching his companies into one AI-industrial stack. The Q1 filing shows where the money moves.
The Multi-Trillion Stack Versus the $116 Billion Unlock Wood’s final flourish stacks the businesses on top of each other. “Ultimately SpaceX when they combine the most powerful, the robotaxi opportunity, the orbital data center opportunity… There are lots of opportunities and they are multi trillion dollar opportunities.” She also framed AI productivity as a generational advantage for U.S. companies, with Chinese competitors looking less efficient despite throwing raw compute at the problem.
Now the ugly part. SpaceX is set to unlock $116 billion in shares after IPO restrictions lift. That is a supply wave arriving into a stock already down 38%. Prediction markets are pricing 96.4% odds against S&P 500 inclusion in 2026, meaning index-fund buying will not rescue the float. Nasdaq-100 inclusion is already resolved yes, which helps, but does not neutralize the coming supply.
Wood’s thesis is coherent and more sophisticated than the headline suggests. The launch moat is real, the orbital compute angle is not science fiction, and the Tesla-SpaceX-xAI convergence is happening in filings. Whether you buy the dip depends on whether you can sit through the unlock. Wood can. Most retail cannot.
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SpaceX čeká po zveřejnění výsledků 4. srpna uvolnění více než 1,37 miliardy akcií, což může zvýšit prodejní tlak na titul SPCX. První vlna 911,5 milionu akcií vstoupí do obchodování 6. srpna 2026.
With Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company on August 4, over 1.37 billion shares of SpaceX stock are scheduled to unlock on August 6, 2026
Two days after the company’s earnings report, 20% of locked-up SpaceX stock, representing about 911.5 million shares, will enter the tradable float, according to the S-1 filing. An additional 10% tranche, which is around 455.8 million SpaceX shares, may also unlock on the same date only if the stock trades at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on and including the earnings release date,
As SPCX traded at about $128.97 on July 21, the upcoming August 6 unlock wave is valued at more than $175 billion at press time. A further 7%, amounting to 319 million SpaceX shares, valued at approximately $40.8 billion, is scheduled to unlock around August 21.
Later on September 10, the company will release 7%, or about 319 million shares, also valued at $40.8 billion at the time of reporting. Currently, 555 million shares, or about 5% of the 13 billion SpaceX shares, are available in the public float.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion SpaceX shares remain subject to a separate extended lock-up until June 2027, with no early release provisions.
What’s the impact of upcoming unlocks on SpaceX stock price? The upcoming SpaceX stock unlocks could increase selling pressure amid more than a 36% selloff since the all-time high (ATH).
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold However, SpaceX has received a bullish long-term projection from Wall Street analysts, as Finbold reported. Nonetheless, with the company’s quarterly earnings forecasts still unknown, SpaceX stock could face heightened volatility in the near term fueled by the upcoming share unlocks.
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Elon Musk warned that investors betting against SpaceX have little chance of survival — even as short sellers boosted their wagers against the company to about one-third of its publicly tradable shares ahead of several key catalysts.
About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 32% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in notional bearish bets, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That's up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just last week, and marks a dramatic increase from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, about a month ago.
"We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company's first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.
Musk responded to the growing short interest in a post on X, predicting investors betting against the company would ultimately lose.
"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote. "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true."
SpaceX one month
SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The results will give investors their first detailed look at SpaceX's performance since its initial public offering and could provide a fresh test for both bulls and short sellers.
The growing bearish position comes as investors weigh SpaceX's long-term prospects against its valuation and the possibility of additional shares becoming available after lock-up restrictions expire. Bulls point to the company's leadership in launch services, Starlink's expansion, and its artificial intelligence ambitions, while skeptics have questioned how much future growth is already reflected in the stock.
SpaceX shares rose about 7% on Tuesday, on pace to snap a seven-session losing streak after analysts at Macquarie reiterated their outperform rating and urged investors to buy the recent weakness. The stock climbed to around $128, though it remains below its $135 IPO price following a sharp post-listing pullback.
Six weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 3.20%), was the talk of Wall Street.
On June 12, SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment. This nearly tripled the previous largest-ever IPO capital raise of $29.4 billion from overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco.
Image source: Getty Images.
But IPO buzz fades quickly on Wall Street, and reality can hit even the most-hyped stocks like a ton of bricks. Since peaking at $225.64 per share intra-day on June 16, SpaceX stock has plunged 45% to less than $124 per share (as of the July 17 close).
Some investors will undoubtedly see a bargain, given Elon Musk's track record at Tesla and SpaceX's opportunity amid the two hottest trends on Wall Street: AI and the space economy. I see far more pain to come for shareholders as historical precedent takes hold.
The accelerated unlock period is quickly approaching For starters, SpaceX's insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) are set to enjoy the greatest wealth transfer in history. In a matter of weeks, most insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares to retail investors.
Whereas most newly public companies adhere to a 180-day lockup period, in which insiders can't sell their shares, SpaceX offers a staggered and accelerated unlock schedule that begins two days after the company's first quarterly operating report as a public company. SpaceX is currently estimated to report its latest quarterly operating results on Aug. 6.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 The company's float is set to grow every few weeks through mid-December, adding downside pressure on SpaceX stock.
Historically, SpaceX's valuation is a nightmare Although it's not uncommon for investors to place high premiums on companies at the forefront of game-changing technologies, SpaceX's valuation is historical nightmare fuel.
No company heralding the charge of a leading innovation has ever sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 for any lengthy period. SpaceX is currently trading at 42 times Wall Street's consensus sales estimate for this year. In other words, Musk's company would need to fall nearly 30% more from its current level just to push below historic bubble territory.
Furthermore, the company isn't particularly close to recurring profits, and its capital-intensive operating model leaves virtually no margin for error or delays.
Image source: Getty Images.
Debt and equity offerings are coming To round things out, SpaceX's prospectus made clear that, in addition to its IPO capital raise, debt and equity offerings would be used to fund the company's AI infrastructure expansion, among other corporate initiatives.
Less than two weeks after going public, the company priced a $25 billion bond offering, with maturities from 2031 to 2056. The price of these bonds has been falling steadily since issuance, signifying concern from bondholders that SpaceX may be unable to meet its obligations.
Additionally, equity offerings would be dilutive to existing shareholders. Given that SpaceX is spending a small fortune on its AI data center build-out, capital-raising activity that weighs on the company's shares is a near-certainty.
SpaceX employees gather to watch Booster 20 as it rolls out of the SpaceX production facility for the launch pad as preparations continue for the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
July 19 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Thursday, July 23, for another attempt to launch its Starship rocket, the company said in a statement on Sunday.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X later on Sunday that the next Starship launch would occur on Friday, contradicting the earlier statement from his company. He did not say whether the original Thursday date was wrong.
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On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its 13th flight test from Texas, which erased about $100 billion from the company's market value.
SpaceX said it has modified Starship's propulsion system to address the engine issue experienced on the previous flight.
A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known for dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon.
On Friday, SpaceX said it would attempt the launch on July 20.
The company has launched 12 Starship test flights since 2023.
On its 13th flight test, Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink network's laser communication links, but those satellites will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.
In its prospectus, SpaceX said that it aims to launch the first Starlink satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed by routine launches.
Reporting by Gursimran Kaur in Bengaluru; Editing by Matthew Lewis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Wall Street začíná SpaceX vnímat spíš jako společnost zaměřenou na AI infrastrukturu než čistě vesmírnou firmu díky Starlinku. Akcie od IPO klesly kolem 40 % a jsou pod emisní cenou 135 USD.
When SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX went public just over a month ago, on June 12, it did so as the most hotly anticipated listing in years, and unmistakably as a space company. Rockets, satellites, and Mars ambitions were the story. But barely a month into its life on the public markets, a different narrative is taking hold on Wall Street, and it has far more to do with artificial intelligence (AI) than with space travel.
SpaceX Today
$123.99 -7.12 (-5.43%)
As of 07/17/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$122.12▼
$225.64Price Target$234.78
The timing is interesting because the stock itself has had a rough start. After hitting a post-IPO high in the sessions following its IPO, SpaceX shares have slumped around 40% and are now trading below the $135 price at which they listed.
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For a company that generated so much excitement coming to market, dipping below the IPO price inside the first few weeks isn’t a great look. Yet beneath that disappointing price action, the emerging investment case may be more compelling than the chart suggests.
Why the AI Narrative Is Taking OverThe core of the argument is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet network. On the surface, it's a connectivity business, beaming broadband down to homes, vehicles, and remote corners of the planet. But increasingly, investors are recognizing that a global, low-latency connectivity network is exactly the kind of infrastructure the AI era is going to depend on.
As AI systems become more embedded in everyday devices, vehicles, and industrial applications, the need for reliable connectivity to move data back and forth grows enormously. Starlink is one of the very few networks capable of providing that coverage at scale.
The bulls argue that this could make SpaceX something like an AI infrastructure landlord, with its network and vertical integration allowing it to control data movement and potentially support entirely new compute products over time.
This is a view that Wedbush's Dan Ives has been vocal about for some time. He argues that SpaceX should be seen as much more of a data and AI play than a traditional space company, pointing to the strategic value of its network and the growing data demands flowing through it. If that framing gains wider acceptance, it fundamentally changes the lens through which the company is valued to the upside.
The Speculative Upside, and the Very Real RisksBeyond connectivity, there's an even more ambitious element to the thesis. There has been growing discussion around the potential for data centers in space, using solar power and natural cooling to run compute-intensive AI workloads outside the constraints of terrestrial infrastructure.
Tied to this is the Terafab semiconductor project, which Oppenheimer recently described as “critical” to SpaceX's future valuation, while also cautioning that it remains speculative and carries real execution risk.
That tension sits at the heart of the debate. The upside case is enormous, but it rests on ambitious projects that are far from proven, and the company is burning through significant cash to pursue them. The bears make a fair point that the current valuation already implies extraordinary growth, with no guarantee that the vast AI opportunity translates cleanly into durable, high-margin profits.
What the Analysts Are SayingSpaceX Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$234.78
89.35% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 37 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$123.99High Forecast$800.00Average Forecast$234.78Low Forecast$115.00SpaceX Stock Forecast Details
Despite that rough start, the early analyst coverage suggests the bulls currently outnumber the bears. While Piper Sandler did initiate coverage this week with a cautious Neutral rating, that was a rare outlier versus the likes of Evercore, which gave the stock a Buy rating, one of many in a run of recent bullish analyst calls.
The price targets of some of these recent updates are also hard to ignore, with many clustered around $250, which, from the current level near $130, implies close to 100% upside. Targets like that suggest at least some analysts believe the recent weakness reflects a serious dislocation between the share price and the company's longer-term potential. Especially if the AI infrastructure narrative takes hold, then the current price could look like an entry point in hindsight.
A High-Stakes First Report AwaitsAll of this means SpaceX's first public earnings report, due on Aug. 6, is a pivotal moment. As a newly listed company with no track record of reporting to public markets, this first look under the hood will carry enormous weight in shaping how investors think about the story.
The key will be any commentary that supports the AI infrastructure framing, particularly around Starlink's growth and how management chooses to position the business. Lean into the AI narrative convincingly, and the bulls calling for a doubling of the stock will have real ammunition.
Fall back on a more pie-in-the-sky space story, and that 40% sell-off may prove less an entry point and more a warning. Either way, Aug. 6 should be firmly circled on every investor's calendar.
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SpaceX v pátek klesla o 5,4 % na 123,99 USD a uzavřela na novém historickém minimu. I po zhruba 45% propadu od debutu zůstává podle článku stále drahá.
While investors spent the week focused on a brutal sell-off in chip stocks, rocket maker and satellite internet company SpaceX (SPCX 5.41%) quietly kept falling. Shares slid 5.4% on Friday to close at $123.99. That marked a sixth straight daily decline, an all-time closing low for the stock's brief public life, and a level below the $135 price from its June initial public offering (IPO).
The slide has been more of a drip than a crash, which may be why many investors haven't registered it. But the cumulative damage is significant.
Shares peaked at $225.64 shortly after their debut, so the stock has lost about 45% of its value in roughly a month.
So is this newly cheaper SpaceX finally worth buying? I don't think so.
Elon Musk at the White House. Image source: The White House.
Why the stock keeps sliding There hasn't been a single blow. Instead, several pressures have stacked up.
In late June, SpaceX priced $25 billion of senior notes in its first bond offering as a public company. The notes come due between 2031 and 2056, at interest rates running from 5.35% to 6.65%. Management said the proceeds would repay the borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full (debt largely tied to folding Elon Musk's xAI and X into SpaceX ahead of the IPO), with anything left over going to general corporate purposes (likely including more AI infrastructure). The offering was a reminder of just how expensive the company's artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions will be.
Then came this week's AI reckoning. Semiconductor stocks sold off hard as investors questioned whether the boom in AI infrastructure spending can persist. That reassessment has been a headwind for anything priced on AI ambitions, and SpaceX, which is now part rocket maker, part satellite internet provider, and part AI company, qualifies.
Finally, on Thursday, the company aborted a Starship test flight moments before launch.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," Musk wrote on X.
A scrubbed launch is a routine setback. But it capped off a rough week.
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Cheaper isn't the same as cheap What matters more is what investors actually get at $124. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, and it lost $4.9 billion for the year.
Starlink, the company's satellite internet service, is the engine. The segment produced $11.4 billion of revenue in 2025, or 61% of the company total. And its subscriber base keeps climbing, compounding from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 8.9 million at the end of 2025 to 10.3 million by the end of March. That is exceptional growth.
However, the average Starlink customer is paying less over time. Monthly revenue per user has stepped down from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026. In other words, Starlink's growth is coming from adding users, not from charging them more. That's fine for now, but it could become a problem if subscriber growth ever slows.
The AI business is the expensive part. That segment, built around xAI, generated just $3.2 billion of revenue in 2025. It's also behind most of the new debt -- the June bond sale retires borrowings SpaceX took on to bring xAI in-house.
Now for the valuation. At $124 per share, SpaceX still commands a market value of about $1.6 trillion. That works out to more than 80 times the company's trailing sales, for a business losing billions of dollars a year. For perspective, a multiple of 20 is often considered generous for a fast-growing company when it's based on earnings -- not sales.
Put another way, even with the stock down about 45%, the market is still pricing in a future in which Starlink keeps compounding, Starship works, and the AI bet pays off in a big way -- all at once.
Of course, SpaceX owns assets nobody else has: the world's dominant rocket program and a satellite internet business without a true peer.
And investors will learn a lot soon. The company's first quarterly report since going public is coming, and insider lockup expirations begin rolling off in August.
But owning singular assets doesn't automatically make a stock worth more than 80 times sales. At $124, shares are arguably cheaper than they've ever been -- and still not cheap.
Elon Musk's space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), went public on June 12 with an opening price of $150 that day. In the days that followed, stock quickly rallied to an all-time high of $225.64, resulting in a market capitalization of almost $3 trillion.
However, as of the market close on Thursday, July 16, SpaceX stock was down 45% to just $125 as of mid-afternoon Friday. Although Wall Street is forecasting significant revenue growth for the company, its stock continues to trade at a sky-high valuation, which could lead to further volatility from here.
Should retail investors take this opportunity to buy the dip, or would they be better advised to steer clear?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX is chasing $28.5 trillion worth of opportunities Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with a clear mission to make the human race interplanetary, but in the years since, it has expanded its focus. The company went on to develop the world's first reusable rocket, which dramatically lowered the cost of launching humans and commercial payloads into orbit, and also reduced the downtime between launches.
The Falcon 9 rocket is responsible for most of SpaceX's successful launches to date, but its Falcon Heavy and Starship rockets have much higher payload capacities. This means they can carry more satellites (and eventually humans) into space per trip, further reducing costs. Starship is expected to enter regular service in a couple of years with a payload capacity of 100 tons, whereas Falcon 9 can carry a maximum of 23 tons.
However, launching astronauts and commercial payloads into space is actually SpaceX's least valuable business, with an addressable market of around $370 billion. The company's satellite internet connectivity segment is capturing a slice of a much larger opportunity worth $1.6 trillion. So far, SpaceX has sent over 9,600 of its Starlink satellites into orbit, where they provide wireless broadband internet access to 10.3 million paying customers here on Earth.
The company will start launching its new V3 satellites later this year, which will offer 10 times the bandwidth of its current V2 satellites. This is where Starship will become especially valuable, because it can deploy 60 satellites at a time, whereas Falcon 9 has a maximum capacity of just 27.
Today's Change
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But over the long term, SpaceX actually thinks AI infrastructure will be its most valuable opportunity. The company only entered this business in February when it acquired one of Elon Musk's other companies, xAI, which came with data centers like Colossus and Colossus II. Since then, it has signed agreements to rent billions of dollars' worth of its spare computing capacity to AI developers such as Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI.
In the future, SpaceX wants to launch clusters of satellites containing AI computing servers into space, where they can run on solar energy and won't need complicated cooling systems. This infrastructure would use Starlink for its data transmission needs, so the company already has a massive advantage over any other competitors aiming to operate orbital data centers. Overall, SpaceX values its total addressable market opportunity in AI at $26.5 trillion.
Investors are still paying a huge premium for SpaceX stock SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from 2024. The internet connectivity business brought in $11.4 billion, while the space segment generated $4.1 billion, and AI infrastructure delivered $3.2 billion. But that order looks set to change in 2026 and beyond, because of the value of its recent cloud computing deals.
SpaceX has agreed to lease up to $1.25 billion worth of data center capacity per month to Anthropic, plus another $920 million worth of capacity per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years.
As a result, Wall Street analysts think SpaceX could more than double its total revenue to $39.2 billion in 2026, and then grow it to $72.7 billion in 2027.
That growth potential explains why some investors are willing to pay a hefty premium for SpaceX stock, which currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 88. That is 14 times the 6.3 P/S ratio of the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, suggesting SpaceX is heavily overvalued compared to its big-tech peers.
Even if we value SpaceX based on its potential 2027 revenue, its forward P/S ratio is still 23.4, which is nearly 4 times higher than where the Nasdaq-100 trades today. And the company is not yet profitable.
Therefore, even after its 45% decline from its peak and its 17% drop from its first-day opening price, SpaceX stock is far from cheap. In fact, I think its lofty valuation leaves it exposed to even more downside potential, so I personally won't be buying this dip.
SpaceX míří na pondělí k dalšímu pokusu o start Starshipu po čtvrtečním přerušení při zážehu motorů. Akcie od té doby klesly asi o 6 % a smazaly zhruba 100 miliard USD hodnoty.
Super Heavy v3 Booster 20 hangs from the chop sticks at Pad 2 as it prepares to roll back to the SpaceX launch production facility in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 17, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to replace two booster Raptor engines before the next launch attempt, Musk saidFour of the booster's 33 engines did not ignite during Thursday's aborted test flightStarship could carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight test, the company saidWASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Monday for another attempt to launch its Starship rocket after a last-second abort during engine ignition on Thursday, a brief setback that nevertheless wiped roughly $100 billion from the newly public company's market value.
The company's Starship rocket ignited its engines for a 13th test flight from Texas, but stopped short of lifting off when an automated abort command shut the engines down early. Four of the Starship booster's 33 engines did not ignite, according to a live SpaceX depiction of the booster's engines.
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A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known for dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon. Still, SpaceX shares have dropped by roughly 6% to $124.30 since the abort, erasing roughly $100 billion in equity value.
Musk wrote on X that the abort was triggered because "some of the engines didn't start." SpaceX on Friday hoisted the Starship upper stage off its Super Heavy booster and plans to replace two of the booster's Raptor engines "to be confident of a good flight," Musk said, without explaining why some engines didn't start.
"Most probable launch timing is early next week," he added. SpaceX's website said Starship could launch "as early as Monday, July 20."
The share price drop offers an early glimpse into how the newly public company's investors might judge the progress of a high-tech rocket program on which SpaceX's most lofty ambitions rely.
The stock had already been sliding from a post-IPO high of $225.64 and fell below SpaceX's $135 IPO price on Wednesday. The abort accelerated the decline.
"If this is how the market reacts to a precautionary abort, I can't wait to see how it responds to a successful flight," Chad Anderson, CEO of Space Capital and a SpaceX investor since 2017, said via text message.
"Zoom out and none of this changes the thesis: we're in the early innings of a multi-decade infrastructure cycle, and Starship is the centerpiece," he added. "Day-to-day price action is noise against the backdrop. This is a long-term opportunity."
Some SpaceX employees on X, which is owned by SpaceX, sought to explain the abort and delay to next week.
Director of Starship engineering Shana Diez said on X that the Thursday launch scrub was the first time a fully stacked Starship rocket lit its engines and then aborted.
"While similar to a wet dress rehearsal," she said, referring to a practice run of a rocket launch, "there is a lot going on and any first time operation comes with additional risk."
"This is how we learn safely and implement mitigations for all scenarios," said Jessie Anderson, a Starship production engineer who sometimes hosts the company's launch live streams.
PRESSURE RISINGSpaceX has launched 12 Starship test flights since 2023, some ending in explosive failures and other hard testing setbacks that have become hallmarks of SpaceX's test-to-failure development ethos, a risky and capital-intensive approach that has been key to the company's quick growth.
But the pressure is rising for Starship to begin operational flights after nearly a decade in development and over $15 billion spent so far.
Two pillars of SpaceX's future growth hinge on Starship: expanding the Starlink network to beam service directly to mobile devices and eventually launching thousands to potentially a million AI-processing satellites into space.
SpaceX aims to launch the first Starlink satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed by routine launches, the company said in its prospectus.
Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight test to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink network's laser communication links, but those satellites will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.
The rocket will launch out of Florida for the first time "potentially" by year's end, SpaceX engineer Kate Tice said Thursday on the Starship live stream.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
Shortaři zvyšují sázky proti SpaceX na zhruba 29 % volně obchodovaného floatu, tedy asi 185 milionů akcií. Akcie za červenec klesly o 20 % a poprvé krátce spadly pod cenu IPO 135 USD.
Short sellers are rapidly increasing their bets against SpaceX, driving bearish positioning to nearly one-third of the company's public float as the struggling stock hovers around its IPO price.
About 185 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 29% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in bearish wagers, according to S3 Partners. The position has ballooned from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, just three weeks ago.
"We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.
The surge in short interest comes as SpaceX shares have struggled after an initially strong debut. The stock has fallen about 20% in July and briefly slipped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time. The stock last traded around $136 apiece.
SpaceX one month
The bearish positioning comes ahead of a closely watched lockup schedule that could substantially increase the number of shares available for trading over the coming months. SpaceX's initial public float represented only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion shares outstanding, leaving the vast majority of stock still subject to lockup restrictions, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.
KeyBanc estimated the first major unlock could come around the company's second-quarter earnings report, when about 11% of outstanding shares may become eligible for sale.
Additional tranches of roughly 4% each are scheduled to be released beginning around day 70 after the IPO, followed by further unlocks tied to performance milestones and third-quarter earnings, the firm said.
The largest block remains Elon Musk's stake, representing about 42% of shares outstanding, which is locked up until June 2027.
The company's 13th Starship test flight is slated for Thursday, an catalyst that could influence sentiment toward the shares.
SpaceX má asi 10,3 milionu předplatitelů Starlinku a služba je dostupná ve 164 zemích a trzích. Firma zároveň rozšiřuje satelitně-mobilní služby přes partnery pokrývající zhruba 1,7 miliardy lidí.
Key Takeaways SPCX reached about 10.3M Starlink subscribers with service available in 164 countries and markets.SpaceX continues investing in technology and network expansion to strengthen its broadband services.SPCX is expanding satellite-to-mobile services through operator partnerships covering about 1.7B people. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX - Free Report) is benefiting from the rapid expansion of its Starlink broadband business. Solid subscriber addition, expanding global coverage and continuous improvement in networking capacity are major driving factors. As of March 31, 2026, the company boasts a subscriber base of around 10.3 million. With approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit, Starlink service is available in 164 countries and markets. Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, showing that satellite broadband has moved beyond the concept stage.
SpaceX's key differentiation lies in its launch leadership, which enables faster Starlink network expansion. SpaceX has completed around 650 orbital launches, including 620 Falcon 9 missions. The mission success rate exceeds 99%. Its reusable launch systems and capability to conduct frequent launches in a short period have significantly lowered satellite deployment costs.
The company places a strong focus on technology upgrades to improve customer experience. Its satellite constellation operates in low earth orbit, allowing significantly lower latency compared to legacy satellite systems. Its architecture can deliver residential download speeds of approximately 225 Mbps during peak hours. Moreover, the company’s ability to launch upgraded satellites frequently ensures continuous network advancements.
Through its Starlink business, the company is working to open up a new growth avenue. It has developed one of the largest satellite-to-mobile constellations, and its services include messaging, voice and data. The company is collaborating with leading mobile network operators across six continents, covering approximately 1.7 billion people.
How Are Competitors Faring?In the satellite communication space, SpaceX faces competition from Viasat, Inc. (VSAT - Free Report) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS - Free Report) . AST SpaceMobile is developing a direct-to-device satellite network. Its commercial deployment remains at an earlier stage. The company recently announced the successful orbital launch of BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket. The satellites feature approximately 2,400-square-foot communications arrays and are designed to provide direct broadband connectivity to standard smartphones. AST SpaceMobile also announced that BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 are targeted for launch during the first half of August aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral. With a growing ecosystem that includes 60 global mobile network operator partners covering over 3 billion subscribers, ASTS is gaining ground on the expanding direct-to-device space.
Viasat has completed the next-generation global ViaSat-3 constellation with the successful launch of ViaSat-3 Flight 3 on April 29, 2026, targeted to the Asia-Pacific region. Management said radiator and solar array deployments were completed and orbit raising is underway, with service entry expected in August or September 2026. ViaSat-3 Flight 2 also completed all deployments, including the reflectors and boom, with service entry pending FCC authorization. The ViaSat-3 class is designed to deliver more than 1 Tbps of throughput capacity and to use advanced beamforming and flexible bandwidth allocation so capacity can be directed to the highest-demand commercial, enterprise and defense markets.
SPCX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesOver the past month, shares of SpaceX have declined 32.6% against the industry’s growth of 114.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SPCX trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 30.51, well above the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have increased over the past 30 days. Earnings estimates for 2026 have improved from a loss of 91 cents to a loss of 67 cents, while for 2027, they have improved from a loss of 23 cents to an income of 63 cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 15 (Reuters) - SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price on Wednesday, a first for the company, just over a month after a frenzy over the rockets-to-AI firm powered the biggest IPO ever and made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.
Its shares (SPCX.O), opens new tab slid 2.7% to $132.5, falling below the $135 apiece IPO price and well below the all-time high of $225.64, which propelled the company's market valuation briefly above those of Silicon Valley giants Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab.
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Many contended the stock's rally was likely vulnerable to reversals, given SpaceX's $4.9 billion in net losses last year and the uncertainty over the firm's prospects as well as the stock valuations that might hold across the market at a time when inflation has been rising, putting the Fed's policymakers on notice.
The decline leaves investors who bought into the company at the IPO price sitting on paper losses for the first time, potentially testing confidence in the stock.
It also offers a reminder that Wall Street enthusiasm can cool quickly, even for a company with the size and scale of SpaceX, which raised around $85.7 billion and fetched a valuation of around $2.1 trillion at the end of its first trading day.
It is not uncommon for a stock to fall below the IPO price, especially during periods of broader market stress.
Wall Street's main indexes have been under pressure in recent weeks due to uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path and concerns about the durability of the rally powered by AI winners such as chipmakers.
Still, the drop may bolster critics who had argued that SpaceX's valuation was stretched, as the company was unprofitable and many of its ambitious bets were still untested.
Investors would find better entry points after the first wave of excitement had faded, some analysts had warned before the IPO.
The reversal also underscores the risks of chasing momentum, and the limits of a valuation driven more by narrative than near-term fundamentals.
The stock's addition to prestigious indexes, such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab, did little to reignite the buying. SpaceX's shares have dropped nearly 13% since they were included in the Nasdaq 100.
The focus now shifts to the company's first results after listing. SpaceX has not yet disclosed when it plans to do it, but has said they will be released only through its website and its social media account on X, and not through wire distribution services.
Reporting by Niket Nishant, Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Pooja Desai
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
SpaceX požádala americkou FCC o povolení nasadit až 100 000 satelitů Starlink Gen3. To by výrazně rozšířilo síť, která má nyní na oběžné dráze něco přes 10 400 satelitů.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%) has had a volatile first month as a publicly traded company. Its share price rose to as much as $225, but as of writing, it has sunk back near its $135 IPO price, currently trading just $1 above it. Opinions on SpaceX's prospects are divided. The bulls will argue that, given its large addressable market and leadership in core markets, including space travel and satellite-based internet services, the stock could produce outstanding returns over the long run.
The bears will point out that SpaceX remains unprofitable, and its financial results and outlook hardly justify a $1.8 trillion valuation. Time will tell who is right, but recent news from the company was a bit of a win for the bulls. Let's look into these recent developments and what they could mean for the stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Starlink could become a bigger growth engine First, let's briefly review SpaceX's Starlink, which is currently its most profitable business. It offers high-speed internet through a network of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, with speeds ranging from 100 Mbps (megabits per second) to over 400 Mbps. This isn't the fastest speed, not by a long shot. Fiber internet is much faster, with some legacy providers offering speeds well above 1000 Mbps.
Some customers still opt for Starlink right now because they live in rural and other traditionally underserved areas. However, SpaceX wants Starlink to be more mainstream. The company recently filed a request with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy up to 100,000 of its new Gen3 Starlink satellites.
There are several things to note about this proposal. Let's focus on two. First, Starlink currently has a bit over 10,400 satellites in orbit -- so 100,000 would be a substantial increase. With far more satellites in space, Starlink's internet speeds could improve dramatically. Second, SpaceX wants to launch this constellation in very low Earth orbit, rather than the LEO satellites it currently operates.
This is another factor that would boost speed. SpaceX isn't shy about its ambitions here. The company is looking to build a network of satellites that could handle the majority of the world's internet traffic.
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SpaceX has some things to address first This is an ambitious proposal, but there are several problems. One is that, given how quickly SpaceX currently builds Starlink satellites, it will take a long time to manufacture 100,000 of them, let alone launch them into space. The company produced an average of 70 satellites per week at its Redmond, Washington facility between December 2025 and April 2026.
That's just 3,640 annually. At that pace, it will take over 27 years to make 100,000 of them. SpaceX will have to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity to reach its ambitious goals. Also, while SpaceX uses its partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets to launch its V2 Starlink satellites into space as of now -- with the rocket capable of carrying up to 29 per trip -- the Gen3 Starlink satellites are much bigger. That's another reason why SpaceX developed Starship, a next-gen, fully reusable rocket with a much bigger payload capacity.
Starship is still in the flight-test phase, but it is clearly central to SpaceX's future, including its space travel ambitions and its ability to substantially expand Starlink's reach.
Is the stock a buy? Improving and expanding its Starlink business could make SpaceX a much more profitable company in the long run, but it still needs regulatory approval for its constellation of 100,000 satellites. And then it will have to figure out the logistics of getting them into space in a reasonable time frame. These aren't insurmountable issues, but the company could encounter setbacks, launch delays, or other potential headwinds with its plans. Investors need to factor all that in.
Further, several other companies are working hard to compete with SpaceX's Starlink (and other business segments, for that matter). SpaceX might be the runaway leader right now -- no company has nearly as many satellites in orbit -- but that could change in the long run. So, although the bulls are right that SpaceX's opportunities are massive, there is plenty of risk as well, and my view is that the stock is a buy, but at a much lower price. That's why I'd wait for a steeper pullback before initiating a position.
SpaceX po pondělním propadu o 4 % v úterý vzrostla zhruba o 1,5 % a držela se jen lehce nad IPO cenou 135 USD. Evercore ISI nově zahájila pokrytí s doporučením Outperform a cílovou cenou 230 USD.
SpaceX SPCX shares rose about 1.5% on Tuesday, recovering modestly after a recent selloff that brought the stock close to its initial public offering price, as a broader market rally and a fresh bullish analyst initiation supported sentiment.
The stock traded around $141 after falling about 4% on Monday. Despite the rebound, shares remained only slightly above the company's $135 IPO price.
The broader market also advanced after June inflation data came in weaker than expected.
The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around the flatline.
The consumer price index fell 0.4% in June from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.5%.
Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly decline of 0.1% and an annual inflation rate of 3.8%.
Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, with shares opening at $150 the following day.
The stock climbed as high as $225.64 on June 16 before retreating nearly 40% from that peak. On Monday, shares fell as low as $136.78, narrowly remaining above the IPO price.
The decline has come despite broadly positive sentiment from Wall Street analysts.
Approximately 80% of analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a Buy, compared with a typical Buy-rating ratio of 55% to 60% for S&P 500 companies.
The average analyst price target stands at about $240 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $3 trillion.
Several Wall Street firms have also outlined long-term growth scenarios for the company based on expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses.
On Tuesday, Evercore ISI initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target.
Analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as "an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity."
According to Evercore, the company has built a vertically integrated business that has established a near-monopoly on orbital access through reusable, low-cost launch technology.
The firm projects revenue and EBITDA to compound at 106% and 157%, respectively, through 2028, while forecasting margin expansion from 35% to 69%.
SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in revenue and $3.95 billion in EBITDA in 2025.
Evercore said several milestones will be important in validating its long-term investment thesis.
The firm pointed to expected progress in Starship payload delivery during the second half of 2026, continued Starlink broadband expansion through 2026 and 2027, and the development of the company's mobile strategy between 2027 and 2029.
Evercore also cited terrestrial compute growth through 2028, orbital compute viability beyond 2029, and enterprise adoption of Grok and Cursor between 2026 and 2028 as additional milestones investors should monitor.
Earlier this week, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239.
FAA opět povolila SpaceX létat se Starship poté, co firma určila pravděpodobnou příčinu květnového selhání stupně Super Heavy. Další test může přijít už ve čtvrtek a ponese první satelity Starlink třetí generace.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has cleared SpaceX to fly Starship prototypes again, after the company identified the probable cause of the failure of the rocket system’s booster stage during a flight in May.
SpaceX said over the weekend that the next flight of Starship could happen as soon as this Thursday, July 16. It would be the second-ever launch of the third version, or V3, of Starship. SpaceX also said that this Starship will carry the first third-generation Starlink satellites to space. Previously, Starship had only carried dummy versions of the larger, more powerful internet satellites.
This is SpaceX’s second test flight of its Starship system, and its first as a public company, testing the market’s appetite for the company’s “fly, fail, fix” approach to rocket development that often ends in fireballs — or, as CEO Elon Musk calls the explosions: “rapid unscheduled disassembly.” SpaceX completed its IPO and publicly listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange on June 12, making it one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world and raising nearly $86 billion, a record.
SpaceX’s first test launch of the V3 Starship on May 22 was largely successful. The company’s Super Heavy booster lifted the 407-foot rocket into space before the upper stage section separated and deployed 20 satellite simulators along with two modified Starlinks that recorded footage of the Starship exterior.
The new third-generation booster was supposed to return to Earth and perform a simulated landing in the Gulf of Mexico. But its engines didn’t properly re-ignite, and it instead plummeted into the water below.
The problem happened at that moment of booster separation, according to SpaceX and the FAA. SpaceX said in a post published over the weekend that “slight differences in engine startup on the ship” caused the Booster to turn 90 degrees in the wrong direction. SpaceX said it has modified this engine startup sequence to allow the booster to “more reliably flip in the desired direction” and that the booster has been modified to “improve re-light reliability.”
The FAA said in a statement Monday that the most probable root causes of the Super Heavy booster failure were “heat effects on propulsion system components during the [rocket’s] ascent and erroneous engine alarm system settings.” SpaceX said in its post that it has made changes to Starship’s engine alarm and abort systems that should reduce the chance of a similar failure in the future.
While the first upper stage of Starship V3 was able to successfully deploy its test payload in May and simulate a landing in the Gulf — a milestone SpaceX had struggled to reach before — it also did so while losing one of the three Raptor engines that are meant to be used in the vacuum of space. SpaceX said over the weekend that it has made “[s]everal hardware and operational modifications” to prevent this from happening again.
This next Starship test flight will see the company launch the first of its V3 Starlink satellites to space, which are supposed to increase the satellite network’s capacity and user speeds. SpaceX is planning to deploy 20 of these new satellites during the launch. They are designed to connect with the larger Starlink constellation “via high-capacity lasers” and then burn up in the atmosphere roughly 20 minutes after they are deployed, according to SpaceX. Six of them will be equipped with cameras to photograph the exterior of Starship.
The V3 versions of both Starship and Starlink are crucial to SpaceX’s future. Starlink was the only profitable part of SpaceX’s business in the run-up to its IPO, and SpaceX needs Starship to become a fully reusable rocket system to even attempt its galaxy-brained plans for space-based data centers and interplanetary travel.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
Akcie SpaceX v pátek klesly o více než 2 % a smazaly zisky po IPO, když investoři dál řeší vysoké ocenění firmy. Titul se obchodoval kolem 148 USD, pod emisní cenou 150 USD.
SpaceX SPCX shares fell more than 2% on Friday, extending a volatile stretch that has erased the stock's post-IPO gains as investors continue debating whether Elon Musk's AI and space ambitions justify one of the world's richest valuations.
The stock traded around $148, below its $150 listing price, after briefly soaring to a record closing high of $201.80 on June 16 following its blockbuster market debut.
The sharp swings come as Wall Street publishes its first wave of research following SpaceX's record-setting IPO, with analysts offering differing views on the company's long-term potential.
Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham was among the most outspoken critics, describing the IPO as a potential landmark market bubble in a recent interview with Morningstar.
Grantham argued that much of SpaceX's valuation rests on aggressive assumptions about artificial intelligence despite what he described as the company's relatively weak competitive position in AI software.
He also questioned projections around orbital AI infrastructure and broader space-related opportunities outlined in the IPO prospectus, arguing they require technological advances that remain highly speculative.
Grantham said the stock could continue rising in the near term because of strong investor demand and index-related buying, but maintained that the valuation would ultimately have to be supported by fundamentals.
Musk remains bullishMusk, however, has continued to raise expectations.
Responding to comments on X this week, the SpaceX chief executive said the company could eventually become "worth more than the rest of Earth" if it achieves its long-term goals.
The remarks add to a series of ambitious projections from Musk, who has previously argued Tesla could become more valuable than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.
Several Wall Street firms have also outlined aggressive long-term scenarios for SpaceX, driven largely by expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future AI infrastructure businesses.
Raymond James currently has one of the Street's highest published price targets at $800 per share, while Citi's bull-case scenario values the company at roughly $12 trillion.
SpaceX also faces growing competition overseas.
China on Friday successfully landed the booster stage of its reusable Long March-10B rocket, marking the country's first successful recovery of an orbital-class reusable booster.
The milestone places China's Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. alongside SpaceX and Blue Origin among the small group of organizations to demonstrate reusable rocket landing capability.
While SpaceX remains the clear global leader in reusable launch technology, China's latest achievement highlights the increasing pace of competition in the commercial space industry as governments and private companies race to lower launch costs and expand access to orbit.
SpaceX's pullback follows an explosive start to life as a public company, with the stock surging more than 30% in its first few trading sessions before reversing sharply.
The combination of lofty valuation expectations, ambitious long-term projections, and limited public trading history has left the shares particularly sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.
With Wall Street still establishing coverage and investors trying to assess the company's AI, satellite, and launch businesses under one public valuation, analysts expect trading to remain volatile in the months ahead.
Starlink má už 10,3 milionu předplatitelů a v roce 2025 vytvořil upravené EBITDA ve výši 7,2 miliardy USD. Naproti tomu AI segment měl v roce 2025 upravenou EBITDA ztrátu 1,2 miliardy USD a Starship je stále ve fázi testování.
Key Takeaways SpaceX's launch scale and Starlink growth underpin its vertically integrated infrastructure platform.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers and generated $7.2 billion in 2025 adjusted EBITDA.Starship remains in testing, while AI posted a $1.2 billion adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is not a simple launch-services story. It combines reusable rockets, satellite broadband and artificial intelligence assets into one vertically integrated infrastructure platform.
That breadth creates a wide opportunity set, but also makes the stock harder to value. Starlink is already showing scale, while Starship and AI still require proof that investment can translate into durable returns.
SpaceX Has Three Growth EnginesSpaceX operates through Space, Connectivity and AI. The Space segment designs, manufactures and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft, with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy serving commercial, civil, international and government missions.
Connectivity is built around Starlink Consumer Broadband, enterprise and government solutions and mobile services. The AI segment expanded after the Feb. 2, 2026, xAI acquisition, bringing Grok, X and the COLOSSUS compute clusters into the platform.
SPCX Launch Scale Sets the FoundationLaunch scale remains SpaceX's clearest moat. As of March 31, 2026, the company had completed about 650 orbital launches, including roughly 620 Falcon 9 flights and 11 Falcon Heavy flights. Falcon 9 had a mission success rate of more than 99%, while Falcon Heavy had a 100% success rate. That cadence matters because lower-cost internal launch capacity helps SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites, support future mobile services and prepare for Starship V3, which is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit.
SpaceX Is Turning Starlink Into Cash FlowStarlink is the cleanest operating proof point in the story. The network had about 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit and roughly 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and other markets as of March 31, 2026.
SpaceX reported median residential peak-hour download speed of 225 Mbps. Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, showing that satellite broadband has moved into recurring revenue and meaningful cash generation.
AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) provides a terrestrial fiber and wireless benchmark for the connectivity side of the debate. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) offers a second large-network comparison as investors weigh how satellite broadband may complement or pressure traditional coverage models.
SPCX AI Ambitions Add Long-Term OptionalityAI broadens SpaceX's long-term narrative beyond rockets and broadband. The platform includes Grok, X and compute infrastructure through COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II, with about 550 million monthly active users across Grok and X as of March 31, 2026.
The opportunity is still early. The AI segment generated $3.2 billion of revenues in 2025, but adjusted EBITDA was negative $1.2 billion, reflecting a multi-year investment cycle tied to consumer AI, enterprise AI, compute services and future orbital AI compute.
The planned Anysphere acquisition adds another software angle. The all-stock deal, valued at $60 billion, is aimed at strengthening SpaceX's position in enterprise AI through the developer platform behind Cursor, but the transaction still depends on closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
SpaceX Signals Point to a Wait-and-See ViewThe bottom line is that SPCX has rare infrastructure advantages, but the stock's signal is mixed rather than clearly bullish. Starlink is scaling, Falcon launch reliability is established and AI adds optionality, yet Starship remains in testing and capital needs remain elevated.
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). That rank points to a more balanced near-term setup, which fits a company where earnings estimate trends do not yet present a stronger short-term case.
The Style Scores send a similar message. SPCX has a VGM Score of D, with a Value Score of F, Growth Score of C and Momentum Score of A. Momentum is favorable, but weaker value and combined style readings suggest investors may want clearer evidence that newer platforms can generate returns before treating the stock as more than a wait-and-see story.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.02%), or SpaceX as most know the company, recently became the largest IPO in history. But investors may not realize just how little of the company is currently trading on the market. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares to public investors, which sounds like a lot, but it's not. That's only about 4% of the total company.
Major investors, employees, and insiders own the rest. That includes CEO Elon Musk, who owns approximately 42% of the company through a combination of more than 4.8 billion shares and stock options. However, Musk is bound to an extended lockup provision that prevents him from selling any of his shares until June of next year, or 366 days after the IPO.
Here's a look at how these provisions might affect SpaceX stock between now and then.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX structured its lockup window to minimize volatility Musk and his companies have an enormous following, especially among individual investors. SpaceX tried to account for this when it planned out its lockup periods. Lockups prevent insiders and major investors from dumping shares on the market once a company goes public. Typical lockups expire after 180 days, but SpaceX has staggered its lockups to minimize volatility in its share price.
There are multiple lockups, not including the extended lockup Musk is subject to.
Investors can sell up to 20% of their stock shortly following SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, its first since the IPO. Another 28% unlocks following the company's third-quarter earnings report. Investors might be able to sell more, based on how the stock is trading at the time.
Additionally, shares will steadily unlock in 7% increments, regardless of share price, on days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 after the IPO. Any remaining shares, excluding the extended lockup, unlock at the traditional 180 days.
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Musk's eventual lockup expiration could weigh on an expensive stock The important point here is that the number of shares available for trading will increase significantly over the next six months. Although it's unlikely that Musk will dump his stake next year, even trimming it to monetize some of his fortune could continue to push lots of new shares into the market a year after the IPO, after a ton of stock has already flooded the market. That could weigh on the share price without sufficient demand to absorb all those additional shares.
It's not the only factor. SpaceX went public amid a ton of hype and excitement, which drove the stock's valuation to pretty lofty heights. The stock still trades at over 100 times its 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion. In other words, there's a ton of room for shares to fall if sentiment turns south. It's a risk worth considering when deciding whether to buy the stock.
Key Takeaways SPCX fell 6.8% on its Nasdaq-100 debut, closing at $149.47, its lowest level since IPO.Starlink, Starship and AI infrastructure plans are key growth engines for SpaceX's long-term story.SpaceX's $2T valuation and 36X forward sales multiple leave little room for execution missteps. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX - Free Report) fell 6.8% yesterday on their first day as part of the Nasdaq-100 Index, closing at $149.47. The stock is now trading at its lowest level since its June 12 IPO and well below its closing high of $211.39.
SpaceX became one of the fastest companies to join the Nasdaq-100, but the milestone failed to provide the boost many investors had expected. Instead, the stock came under pressure as a broad technology selloff weighed on the sector.
The weakness was due to growing concerns over heavy AI-related spending, rising U.S. bond yields, higher oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Several technology stocks, including Marvell Technology (MRVL - Free Report) , Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) , also declined sharply yesterday.
Yesterday’s Price Decline Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With SpaceX now trading near its post-IPO lows, the key question is whether the recent pullback offers a compelling buying opportunity or signals further downside ahead.
Multiple Growth Engines Support SPCX’s Long-Term StorySpaceX's long-term growth story remains compelling, supported by multiple high-growth businesses.
The biggest growth driver is Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite Internet arm. It is benefiting from rising demand for broadband connectivity in underserved regions and is positioned to offer text, voice and data services directly to standard smartphones. The business generated more than $11.4 billion in revenues and $4.4 billion in operating income in fiscal 2025, highlighting its ability to generate meaningful profits while expanding globally.
Another major catalyst is Starship. Following its 12th successful test flight in May 2026, the next-generation launch vehicle is expected to carry much heavier payloads than Falcon 9. This would enable the deployment of larger Starlink satellites while significantly reducing the cost of delivering satellite bandwidth, improving the economics of the Starlink business over time.
SpaceX is also transforming into an AI infrastructure company following the acquisitions of xAI and X earlier this year. By combining AI models, large-scale computing infrastructure and satellite connectivity, the company is building an integrated platform that few competitors can match. It plans to launch AI compute satellites by 2028, paving the way for space-based data centers.
The company's growing presence in AI is already attracting major customers. Multi-billion-dollar computing agreements with Alphabet's Google and Anthropic provide long-term revenue visibility, while the planned acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding assistant Cursor, strengthens its position in the fast-growing enterprise AI software market.
But Can We Look Past the Valuation Concerns?While SpaceX's long-term opportunities are significant, its valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
The company is currently valued at around $2 trillion despite generating just $4.69 billion in first-quarter revenues and incurring a net loss of $4.28 billion. On a forward 12-month basis, the stock trades at roughly 36 times sales, a rich premium even among high-growth technology companies.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investors are paying for what SpaceX could become rather than what it is today. That optimism rests on Starlink's continued expansion, AI infrastructure, space-based data centers and Elon Musk's vision of building a company capable of generating $100 billion in annual revenues by 2028.
However, reaching that milestone will require flawless execution across multiple capital-intensive businesses. Also, history suggests that investors should treat Musk's timelines with caution. We know that many of Tesla's ambitious projects, including robotaxis and humanoid robots, have taken longer than initially projected. Likewise, many of SpaceX's biggest growth initiatives are still years away from making a meaningful financial contribution and will require huge investment before they begin generating attractive returns.
Is SpaceX Stock a Buy?SpaceX remains one of the most compelling long-term growth stories in the market. Few companies have leadership positions across commercial space, satellite connectivity and AI infrastructure, giving SPCX multiple avenues for expansion over the coming decade.
That said, much of this optimism already appears reflected in the stock's premium valuation. Even after the recent pullback, investors are still paying a steep price for future growth that will take years to materialize.
Having said that, for existing shareholders, the recent decline does not change the long-term investment thesis, making the stock worth holding through near-term volatility. Wall Street's average price target still implies roughly 35% upside from current levels.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, new investors may be better served by waiting for a more attractive entry point. While SpaceX's long-term prospects remain attractive, the current valuation still offers a limited margin of safety, leaving little room for execution missteps or broader market weakness.
SPCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
JPMorgan čeká, že tržby SpaceX porostou o 91 % ročně do roku 2030, ale hlavním motorem má být AI infrastruktura, ne jen více startů raket. Banka vidí tržby 470 miliard USD v roce 2030.
The real headline may be the bank’s expectation that the company can grow revenue at a staggering 91% annual rate through 2030—a forecast that, according to JPMorgan, has surprisingly little to do with selling more rocket launches.
Instead, analyst Doug Anmuth argues launches are simply the foundation for a much bigger business.
The AI Story Hidden Behind the RocketsFor years, investors have viewed SpaceX primarily as a launch company powered by Falcon rockets and Starlink satellites.
JPMorgan believes that narrative is already becoming outdated.
Anmuth says “launch is SpaceX’s core competitive advantage that enables every other part of the business,” with rapid Starship reusability laying the groundwork for an AI infrastructure platform rather than simply a larger launch business.
By 2031, JPMorgan expects Starship launches to ramp from only a handful this year to roughly 5,000 annually, enabling SpaceX to deploy 75 gigawatts of orbital compute as it pursues an addressable market exceeding $28 trillion.
From Connectivity to AIThat shift fundamentally changes SpaceX’s financial profile.
JPMorgan projects revenue climbing from $19 billion in 2025 to $470 billion by 2030, while operating margins improve from negative 14% to roughly 50% over the same period. The driver isn’t simply more launch activity, but what the report describes as a business mix shifting from “Connectivity to AI, first terrestrial, and then orbital.”
Anmuth argues that transition justifies valuing SpaceX more like a next-generation AI infrastructure company than a traditional aerospace business.
Why Launch Still MattersIronically, the bullish AI thesis begins with rockets.
SpaceX has completed roughly 670 orbital launches with a 99%+ mission success rate and has launched more than 80% of all mass sent to orbit since 2023, according to JPMorgan. Those capabilities—and Starship’s rapid reusability—give the company a structural advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate.
That launch leadership, combined with what Anmuth calls SpaceX’s “extreme vertical integration,” enables the company to build not only rockets but also satellites, AI infrastructure and, eventually, orbital data centers faster and more cheaply than rivals.
For investors, that may be the biggest takeaway from JPMorgan’s initiation.
The firm’s $225 price target implies meaningful upside. But the more important bet is that SpaceX’s next decade won’t be defined by how many rockets it launches—it will be defined by what those rockets make possible.
Image via Shutterstock
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SpaceX začne v červenci uvolňovat insiderské lockupy postupně, ne jednorázově. První část téměř 20 % se otevře po zveřejnění výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí v pozdním červenci.
When a company goes public, it's important to know that the shares sold in the offering are a fraction of the existing shares. The rest, the stakes held by employees, early backers, and executives, sit behind a lockup -- an inability to sell for a set stretch after the debut.
For Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%), the first stretch lifts in late July, and the design of the release tells you more than the date does. Most IPOs use one 180-day lockup, so a wall of shares might hit the market on a single morning.
SpaceX built something different. The first slice, nearly 20% of locked shares, is freed up after the company reports second-quarter results in late July. Smaller tranches of around 7% each follow through August, September, and October, with a larger release tied to third-quarter earnings, and the 180-day batch clears in December. Instead of one flood, supply arrives in steps.
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The SpaceX price triggers worth watching One tranche, about 10% of the locked pool, is unlocked if the stock trades at 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50. That condition ties insider selling to strength rather than weakness. If shares are unlocked this way, more supply reaches the market, but it reaches the market because the stock has climbed. Think of this mechanism as a built-in brake: The plan releases the most shares when demand can absorb them.
What the lockup expiration means for the stock Two forces are at play here. More sellable shares can cap gains, and the late-July window is the first real test of how many insiders want out at a $2 trillion valuation. On the other side, the staggered format spreads the pressure across months rather than one session, and the largest holder sits out of every July move. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027, with no early release provision. The overhang that could matter most is a year down the road.
Image source: Getty Images.
The takeaway for investors The July expiration is a signal, not a cliff, and the difference shapes how you read the rest of the year. A staggered lockup lets the market price in each release as it comes rather than absorb one shock, so the second-quarter report in late July becomes the first honest look at insider appetite. If early backers and employees hold their shares through that window, it says something about how the people closest to SpaceX view a $2 trillion price tag; if they sell into the opening, their exit says the opposite.
SpaceX loni vykázala čistou ztrátu 4,9 miliardy USD při tržbách 18,7 miliardy USD. Firma zároveň letos spálila hotovost přes 10 miliard USD jen v 1. čtvrtletí.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) was an IPO of superlatives. From its unparalleled $75 billion raise to its enormous day-one trading volume, it broke so many records that it probably even broke the record for breaking the most records. With a heady mix of space travel, artificial intelligence (AI), and proposals to take tourists to the moon, it's natural to wonder if SpaceX has a place in your portfolio.
The trouble is that it is hard to justify a valuation of over $2 trillion for a firm that reported a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and had total 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Plus, many of the claims in its prospectus -- including the potential total addressable market of $28.5 trillion -- don't stand up to scrutiny. If you're thinking of buying SpaceX today, here are three things to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. You may already own it Several major indexes fast-tracked SpaceX's entry, causing index funds to automatically add the stock. The Russell 1000 added SpaceX on June 27, and the Nasdaq-100 followed on July 7, so investors who hold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror those indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF or the Invesco QQQ Trust, already own a small stake in SpaceX.
Other technology- and space-themed ETFs also give exposure to SpaceX. These include Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF and iShares AI Innovation and Tech Active ETF. Think about what percentage of your portfolio you want to allocate to SpaceX and what you'll get through your existing investments.
2. SpaceX is burning through a lot of cash Last year, SpaceX's capital expenditure (capex) totaled $21 billion for its space, connectivity, and AI segments. This year, it is spending money even faster: It burned through over $10 billion in Q1 alone. SpaceX is different from the AI hyperscalers racing for dominance because big tech firms like Alphabet have pretty solid financial cushions and are generating significant revenue to justify some of the costs.
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In fairness, SpaceX has already landed three major AI deals, and its Starlink internet arm does generate cash. Even so, it is borrowing heavily to fund its expansion into two high-risk areas -- space and AI -- and it isn't clear when they will start to pay off. In fact, some of its forays into unproven technologies may never generate revenue.
3. Elon Musk is part of SpaceX's DNA SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is part of why the company's IPO broke so many records. Some invested in SpaceX purely because they believed Musk could deliver, regardless of the risks. But his reputation is not the only reason Musk and SpaceX are tied; the firm is structured around his leadership.
Musk's Class B shares have 10 times the voting power of the Class A shares investors bought in its IPO, giving him control of around 80% of SpaceX's votes. Among other things, if shareholders lose faith in his leadership, they can't force his dismissal. That raises some interesting governance questions that will likely play out in the coming years.
It also raises a practical issue because Musk has other commitments, and any distractions could delay SpaceX's ambitious timelines. Moreover, without a clear succession plan, SpaceX may not survive if ill health or other issues remove Musk from the helm.
The period after high-profile IPOs is always volatile. Throw in the high risks, heavy spending, debt, and structural challenges, and it makes sense for long-term investors to wait and reevaluate SpaceX once the frenzy has passed.
SpaceX podle Reuters plánuje začít příští měsíc stavět osmimílový plynovod Starpipe k texaským startovacím zařízením. Dodávky mají zatím jít přes Valley Crossing Pipeline společnosti Enbridge.
Following its IPO and subsequent bond offering, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) now has more than $100 billion in new capital at its disposal. Expect SpaceX to go on a massive spending spree to spur growth and justify its $2 trillion valuation.
What will SpaceX's spending focus on? Artificial intelligence will likely be the biggest beneficiary. More than 90% of SpaceX's claimed total addressable market is AI-focused. That means investors should expect the company to dramatically scale terrestrial data center construction. But SpaceX will also now aggressively pursue putting AI data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers (ODCs).
ODCs will need many things to happen before they become a reality, one of which is successful commercialization of SpaceX's Starship megarocket. This megarocket -- which is significantly larger than the company's Falcon Heavy rocket -- would meaningfully improve SpaceX's ability to get larger payloads to space more affordably. ODCs, for example, could be launched at scale using Starship rockets.
One of SpaceX's biggest constraints on growth in this opportunity set, however, is access to rocket fuel. To solve that problem, SpaceX is reportedly looking to build its own natural gas pipeline. SpaceX may even look to produce its own natural gas over the long term.
How will this impact energy markets, and in particular, pipeline stocks? There are two factors to consider.
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1. SpaceX's natural gas pipeline won't endanger pipeline stocks According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas pipelines deliver roughly 30 trillion cubic feet to nearly 80 million consumers each year. A single Starship launch, for comparison, uses around 630,000 gallons of liquid methane, which equates to around 0.0000521 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Even if SpaceX launched 1,000 Starship rockets every year, it would still amount to less than 0.2% of U.S. natural gas demand transported by pipelines.
In short, SpaceX's actions aren't about to disintermediate conventional pipeline networks. In fact, SpaceX's actions could benefit certain pipeline networks in the long term.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Pipeline stocks could actually benefit from SpaceX's actions long term According to reporting from Reuters, SpaceX "plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile natural gas pipeline called 'Starpipe' to its Texas launch facilities." Construction is expected to conclude in January 2027.
Reuters observes:
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds, and eventually thousands of launches a year.
Where will Starpipe's natural gas come from? SpaceX apparently wants to explore drilling for its own natural gas in the long term. But for now, it seems likely that supply will come from Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline.
Pipeline stocks, therefore, won't be affected by SpaceX's foray into pipeline construction. Enbridge may even benefit directly, with other natural gas pipeline stocks benefiting from a new source of demand that could support prices over the long term, even if it remains a fraction of total U.S. demand.
SpaceX má v dohodě o lock-upu po IPO skrytou klauzuli: pokud akcie před zveřejněním výsledků uzavřou na 30 % nad IPO cenou v pěti z deseti dnů, 7. srpna se uvolní dalších 456 milionů akcií.
If SpaceX shares close above that level— 30% above the company’s $135 IPO price—on five of the 10 trading days leading up to earnings, an overlooked provision in the company’s IPO lock-up agreement will kick in, unlocking 456 million additional shares just two days after the first scheduled insider share release.
It’s a little-known clause that could quietly make SpaceX’s first major lock-up expiration significantly larger than many investors expect.
Most investors are already watching Aug. 5, when approximately 912 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible non-affiliate holdings, become eligible for sale on the second trading day after SpaceX reports second-quarter results.
But that’s only the first wave.
The IPO prospectus includes a performance-based provision allowing another 456 million shares—or an additional 10% of eligible holdings—to be released on Aug. 7 if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price on five of the 10 trading days preceding the first earnings release.
In other words, strong stock performance—not weak performance—could accelerate the amount of stock eligible to enter the market.
Why It MattersLock-up expirations don’t automatically result in insider selling. Employees, executives and early investors can choose to continue holding their shares, particularly if they remain confident in the company’s long-term prospects.
But traders closely monitor lock-up events because they increase the supply of shares that can be sold, sometimes creating additional volatility around earnings or other major catalysts.
The conditional Aug. 7 release makes SpaceX’s lock-up schedule particularly unusual. Rather than tying insider liquidity to the passage of time alone, the company linked part of the release to the stock’s own performance—a mechanism that rewards strength by allowing more shares to become eligible for trading sooner.
Beyond August, SpaceX’s lock-up schedule remains staggered through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, including a 1.3 billion-share release following third-quarter earnings. Elon Musk‘s 6.4 billion shares remain subject to a separate one-year lock-up that is not eligible for early release.
What Investors Should WatchSpaceX’s first earnings report is already shaping up to be one of the company’s biggest post-IPO events. But the results may not be the only catalyst.
If the stock can hold above roughly $175.50 often enough before earnings, investors could see more than 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale within just two trading days—912 million on Aug. 5 and another 456 million on Aug. 7. That doesn’t guarantee a wave of insider selling, but it does make one little-known IPO clause worth watching just as closely as the earnings report itself.
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SpaceX se před úterním otevřením trhu stane součástí Nasdaq-100, takže indexové fondy a ETF budou muset akcie držet. Pasivní nákupy mohou podle odhadů dosáhnout až 4,3 miliardy USD z ETF QQQ, přičemž celkové nákupy fondů sledujících Nasdaq-100 a Russell mohou dosáhnout až 27 miliard USD.
The InclusionSpaceX will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally, meaning every index fund and ETF tracking the benchmark will be required to own SpaceX shares as of Tuesday’s open.
Estimates suggest passive investors could purchase up to $4.3 billion in shares from the QQQ ETF alone, with total Nasdaq-100 and Russell index tracking fund buying potentially reaching $27 billion.
SpaceX Shares Edge HigherSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 2.44% higher at $165.96, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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SpaceX podle článku vidí větší potenciál v konektivitě než v AI: Starlink má provozní zisk 4,4 miliardy USD a firma zvažuje vstup do mobilních služeb. Trh internetu a bezdrátových služeb odhaduje na 1,6 bilionu USD.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, has been receiving a lot of attention for its deals to sell compute capacity to artificial intelligence (AI) companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet. So far, it holds contracts worth about $28 billion in annual revenue.
In its in initial public offering (IPO) registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX said the total addressable market for its AI businesses is $26.5 trillion. That includes a $2.4 trillion infrastructure market, where SpaceX eventually plans to extend from terrestrial data centers to solar-powered orbital data centers, and a huge opportunity to sell enterprise AI applications.
But things change quickly at SpaceX, and it's reportedly pursuing an opportunity in a $1.6 trillion market that could prove even more valuable than its AI operations. Here's what investors need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The most promising business inside SpaceX could be getting bigger SpaceX had a net loss of $5 billion on $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, but a look under the hood reveals several different stories. The company's launch services and AI segments generated significant operating losses last year, but its Starlink connectivity business generated $4.4 billion in operating income. Both subscribers and profits more than doubled from the prior year, even as it lowered its average pricing.
The next move for Starlink could be an expansion into wireless phone service. The company is reportedly planning to launch a mobile service for U.S. consumers in the near future, taking on telecom giants AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
SpaceX has held talks with Charter Communications for a potential mobile phone partnership, according to reports. Doing so could give it access to Charter's internet infrastructure and its mobile virtual network agreement with Verizon.
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Ultimately, SpaceX sees the potential for the internet and wireless phone service market to reach $1.6 trillion, according to its IPO filing. And it has the potential to offer the service at a relatively high margin. Starlink's operating margin is about 40%, and that could climb higher as it scales operations and reduces launch costs. Athough the operating margin on wireless communication businesses is considerably lower (about 20% for the three big U.S. carriers), SpaceX could find that supplementing its network, or partner network, with its satellite connectivity could allow it to generate higher margins.
Meanwhile, it's unclear how profitable the AI segment can be. Although management boasts a tremendous return on its invested capital from its infrastructure-as-a-service deals, it might not have a long-term competitive advantage. The cost and viability of orbital data centers will determine if SpaceX can scale its operations and how profitable it will be.
At the same time, SpaceX's own AI development efforts appear to be taking a back seat, as it has fallen behind leading AI labs and has seen limited consumer traction. It will likely remain a niche player in the sector, weighing on operating margins. Despite the vast addressable market, SpaceX doesn't appear well-positioned to capture a significant share.
As such, I see much more potential for profit in the connectivity business than in AI.
How big could the business get? There's little doubt SpaceX has a very compelling product with its satellite internet business. However, leveraging that into a full-on wireless business is more difficult. It needs to build out a terrestrial wireless network to offer a competitive service. That takes both time, money, and access to limited, government-controlled spectrum licenses.
To that end, SpaceX acquired 65 MHz from EchoStar and participated in the recent Federal Communication Commission (FCC) auction for some of EchoStar's forfeited licenses. However, its participation was limited to filling in just a few key gaps, not indicative of plans to build an entire network.
To put SpaceX's spectrum position into perspective, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon have 375 MHz, 314 MHz, and 279 MHz in population-weighted spectrum licenses, respectively. The next significant FCC auction is next year, so it will take a long time for SpaceX to catch up and build out a network.
But SpaceX does offer a key supplementary service to wireless carriers: satellite connectivity in remote areas. In fact, SpaceX's posturing may simply be a negotiating tactic to secure better terms or longer-term partnerships. SpaceX currently partners with T-Mobile in the U.S.
In that case, it could continue to expand the profitable Starlink business and receive a nice profit boost from carrier deals before pursuing the wireless space directly. New York University professor Aswath Damodaran projects it could generate $120 billion at a 60% operating margin by 2036. That's a 10-fold increase in 10 years, and it seems like a reasonable estimate based on the strength of the satellite connectivity business.
Unfortunately, investors are currently paying a premium price for the rest of the company, including its AI operations. If you expect an investment in SpaceX to produce reasonable returns at its current price, you must also expect the AI business to prove more profitable in the long run than its connectivity business. Right now, the connectivity business holds more promise.
SpaceX se mění v platformu pro starty, konektivitu a AI infrastrukturu; dohody o AI hostingu naznačují zhruba 26 miliard USD ročních opakujících se výnosů. Starlink má 10,3 milionu předplatitelů.
SummarySpaceX is evolving into an integrated launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure platform, with AI expected to become its primary long-term growth driver.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, while AI hosting agreements imply approximately $26 billion in annualized recurring revenue.Starship V3 is expected to increase payload capacity twentyfold and reduce launch costs per kilogram by roughly ten times, strengthening internal economics.Despite strong growth prospects, SPCX reported a $4.94 billion FY2025 net loss, a $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss, and raised $25 billion through bonds.Investors should monitor AI hosting revenue, operating margin improvement, and cash burn, as execution will determine whether the premium valuation remains justified. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO investment story extends well beyond launch services. It is becoming an end-to-end infrastructure platform covering space transport, connectivity, and AI computing. Now that SpaceX has gone public, investor attention is more likely
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SpaceX po IPO dosáhla valuace kolem 2,1 bilionu USD, přestože má za posledních 12 měsíců čistou ztrátu asi 9,4 miliardy USD. Jde o nejhodnotnější ztrátovou firmu v historii.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) went public on June 12 at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Three weeks later, the rocket, satellite-internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company commands a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. Only a handful of companies have ever been worth that much -- and every one of them earned billions in profits when it got there.
SpaceX is different. Across 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, its reported losses add up to a trailing net loss of about $9.4 billion, set against roughly $19.3 billion in trailing revenue.
That combination raises a question worth answering before the company joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 -- an event that will make index funds automatic buyers of the stock. Has a money-losing business ever been valued this highly? And if it hasn't, should investors care?
Image source: Getty Images.
A price arguably without precedent Start with the historical check. The market has valued unprofitable companies richly before, but the previous standard-bearers operated on a different scale entirely. Rivian, the electric-truck maker, briefly commanded a market value of about $150 billion in late 2021 while deeply unprofitable -- and that stood out as extreme at the time. Uber ran years of losses with a valuation that topped out around $100 billion. Amazon, the dot-com era's favorite money-loser, was worth only tens of billions back when it was losing money.
SpaceX's $2.1 trillion is roughly 14 times the Rivian benchmark. I can't find a money-losing company in market history that has come anywhere close. So it's safe to say that SpaceX appears to be the most valuable unprofitable company the market has ever seen.
Now, the loss itself deserves a closer look, because it isn't the loss of a struggling business. According to the company's IPO prospectus, SpaceX -- whose filings also include xAI, the AI business it absorbed -- generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, and lost $4.9 billion. Then it lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
But the composition matters. Starlink, the satellite-internet business, produced $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue -- about 61% of the total -- and generated $4.4 billion in operating profit. The losses come from everything surrounding it: about $3 billion a year of research and development spending on the Starship rocket program, plus the enormous computing costs of the AI operation. In plain terms, one highly profitable business is funding two gigantic bets.
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What a $2.1 trillion price tag demands What makes the record more than trivia is what it implies about expectations. At about $2.1 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its trailing revenue -- not its earnings, its revenue. A price like that requires nearly everything to go right: Starlink must keep compounding for years, Starship must eventually turn its development spending into dramatically cheaper access to space, and the AI bet must justify losses that are widening, not narrowing. The $75 billion raised in the IPO buys time, but it doesn't change what has to happen.
Fresh evidence is coming. SpaceX hasn't yet announced the date of its first earnings report as a public company, but that report -- expected this summer -- will offer the first new numbers since the prospectus, including whether Starlink's growth and margins are holding up and how fast the Starship and AI spending is scaling.
The answer to the headline question, then, is yes: Investors should care -- not because losses disqualify a stock, but because of the expectations this price locks in. Amazon lost money for years and became one of the great investments of all time. The difference is that Amazon's doubters could buy it for tens of billions. SpaceX asks investors to pay a price that already assumes the bets pay off, from a company that has yet to file a single quarterly report as a publicly traded company, with fortunes still closely tied to CEO Elon Musk.
Personally, I'll let the first few earnings reports answer the questions the prospectus can't. Records are fascinating. That doesn't make them buyable.
Starlink dosáhl 10,3 milionu předplatitelů a je jedinou ziskovou částí podnikání SpaceX. V 1. čtvrtletí jeho růst zdvojnásobil zákaznickou základnu za rok.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), known as SpaceX, trade at a steep premium, and that valuation is built on more than the company launching rockets. A big part of the bull case is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, which reached 10.3 million subscribers in the first quarter.
Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year. That growth matters because Starlink is the company's most profitable business right now. Those profits can help fund SpaceX's broader ambitions in space and artificial intelligence (AI), which together represent enormous growth potential for the company.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is starving for capital SpaceX may be best known as Elon Musk's rocket company, but the financial picture looks more like a vertically integrated technology infrastructure business with three operating segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI.
In 2025, the company generated $18.6 billion in total revenue and incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion across all segments. Starlink was the only profitable business. The Connectivity segment delivered more than $11 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, providing SpaceX with a meaningful pool of internally generated capital.
SpaceX is directing most of its capital spending toward the AI segment, which may signal where management sees the greatest upside over the next few years. Of the $20.7 billion in capital expenditures last year, $12.7 billion went to the AI segment, which includes xAI (Grok).
The IPO raised $86 billion in new capital, boosting its cash and equivalents to $100 billion as of June 19. It didn't waste time in deploying this fresh capital, recently acquiring Anysphere and its leading enterprise AI coding platform, Cursor. The company is trying to accelerate AI capabilities, even if that means aggressive capital deployment.
That's why Starlink's profitability is strategically valuable, and it's expected to grow quite quickly over the next few years. Goldman Sachs estimates Starlink revenue could reach $144 billion by 2030. If segment margins hold, that would put the connectivity segment's operating profit at over $50 billion -- cash that could materially support SpaceX's plans in space and AI.
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Starlink is one piece of a bigger empire The long-term value of owning AI models, data centers, communication satellites, and reusable rocket technology under one roof is hard to quantify, since space remains a largely unexplored frontier.
However, SpaceX pegs the combined addressable market across space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure at $28.5 trillion. That helps put the stock's $2 trillion market cap in perspective, but it's still very expensive, trading at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue. To justify that valuation, revenue needs to grow rapidly.
Starlink subscriber growth will be crucial, but investors should watch the AI segment, since that's where the company is investing the most capital. SpaceX recently struck a cloud services deal to lease xAI's data center capacity to Anthropic, in which it will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. More deals like this could open another large and growing revenue stream and potentially justify the stock's valuation.
SpaceX klesl o více než 6 % na 159,95 USD při volatilním obchodování po nedávném IPO. Wedbush ale zahájil pokrytí s doporučením outperform a cílovou cenou 190 USD.
SpaceX stock SPCX fell sharply on Wednesday as investors continued to navigate volatile post-IPO trading.
Shares of Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence company dropped more than 6% to $159.95 in early trading.
The decline came amid broader weakness in technology and semiconductor stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points.
Among other technology names, Micron fell 6%, Sandisk dropped 8%, Nvidia lost roughly 2%, and Broadcom declined about 1%.
The pullback highlights the ongoing debate over SpaceX's valuation following its blockbuster public market debut.
With the stock experiencing significant swings since listing, investors are increasingly looking to analyst assessments for clues about how much upside remains after the company's rapid ascent.
On Tuesday evening, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target.
"We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity, Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel, and increasing deal flow for its Colossus [AI data centers]," Ives wrote.
According to Ives, Starship remains central to the company's long-term growth strategy.
The analyst argued that the next-generation launch vehicle could reduce the cost of reaching space by roughly 90% compared with Falcon 9 missions, potentially enabling a broader range of commercial opportunities, including orbital AI data centers.
"All of SpaceX's future business runs through Starship, whether it's Starlink's next-generation [satellites], the orbital AI-compute constellation, the Artemis lunar lander, or the cost-and-capacity step the whole forward [valuation] case assumes," Ives wrote.
"The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk."
Ives based his valuation on a sum-of-the-parts framework that separately assesses the company's launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence businesses.
Under that approach, he values SpaceX's launch operations at approximately $66 billion and Starlink at roughly $600 billion.
The largest component of the valuation is the company's artificial intelligence business, which Ives estimates is worth approximately $1.8 trillion.
He expects AI-related operations to generate more than $80 billion in revenue by 2028, before any contribution from potential orbital AI data centers.
The analysis places significant emphasis on SpaceX's expanding AI ambitions alongside its traditional aerospace operations.
Separately, SpaceX is set to become one of the fastest companies ever added to the Nasdaq-100 index following recent rule changes adopted by Nasdaq.
Nasdaq announced after last Friday's close that SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index.
Assuming the company continues to meet eligibility requirements, index-tracking funds and related investment products will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, one of the largest and most actively traded exchange-traded funds.
SpaceX is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Even with a relatively small weighting, inclusion could create meaningful buying demand because SpaceX's public float remains limited compared with its overall market capitalization.
Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need to acquire shares to reflect the benchmark's revised composition, while active managers benchmarked against the index may also adjust positions.
Short interest na SpaceX vzrostl na 31 % volně obchodovaných akcií, ale shortaři už od IPO prodělávají zhruba 760 milionů USD. Půjčení akcií zůstává levné, kolem 1 %.
The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesShort interest about 31% of SpaceX free float — Ortex dataCost to borrow still relatively cheap at 1% from as high as 14% at launchShorts sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 mln since IPO, Ortex saysNo squeeze yet, but if shares rebound short sellers could be hitNEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Short sellers are betting SpaceX's(SPCX.O), opens new tab will resume its post-debut decline with nearly a third of its tradable shares now sold short — even as those wagers have already cost them nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars in paper losses.
The sizeable short position could inject further volatility into the stock, with every $1 SpaceX share price swing translating to roughly $200 million in gains or losses for shorts, Ortex estimates.
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Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a profit when the stock slips, were emboldened after SpaceX shares' initial burst of strength gave way to weakness and the share price slipped as much as 23% in the days following its June 12 market debut.
Short interest now stands at 196 million shares, about 31% of the free float, through Tuesday, up from some 83 million shares, or 13% of the free float, a week ago, Ortex data showed.
"(The rise in short bets) is extraordinary for a stock that has been public less than a month," said Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg.
SpaceX's more than $2 trillion valuation makes it a target for short sellers skeptical of its rich price tag, but strong retail and institutional interest and Musk's history of public battles against short sellers make that a risky proposition. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SpaceX shorts are sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 million since the IPO, Ortex estimates.
When the stock bottomed near $153 last week they were up around $2.5 billion on paper, but the rebound in SpaceX shares since has wiped all of that out, Ortex data showed.
"SpaceX has been a roller coaster for the short sellers," Hillerberg said.
The cost to borrow SpaceX shares, a gauge of demand to short a stock relative to the supply of shares available to lend, remains relatively cheap at about 1%, Ortex data showed.
Given the number of shares sold short relative to the total tradable shares available, should SpaceX's stock price continue to rebound, short covering — where bearish investors are forced to buy shares to close out their wagers to avoid further losses — has the potential to push the shares even higher, Hillerberg said.
"(It's) a lot of potential fuel if it tips into a squeeze," he said.
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed Editing by Nick Zieminski Editing by Nick Zieminski
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Wedbush zahájil pokrytí SpaceX s doporučením outperform a cílovou cenou 190 USD, tedy asi 16 % nad úterním závěrem. Firma podle něj není jen raketová společnost, ale hyperscaler se třemi byznysy: Starlink, Starship a AI segment.
Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
SpaceX by mohla zhruba do měsíce uskutečnit 13. test Starshipu, což by podpořilo její snahu zlepšit ekonomiku kosmického podnikání. Firma ale zůstává ve ztrátě a ARPU Starlinku klesá.
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +4.06%) recent IPO was a massive success. However, serious questions remain about the company's outlook and its eventual ability to turn a profit. Much of that will depend on SpaceX's biggest growth driver, Starlink, which provides internet connectivity services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. But SpaceX could also make progress in its space segment, leading to much better margins and profits. And a potential milestone it could reach within 15 days will tell us more about whether SpaceX can meaningfully improve the economics of its space business.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's next-gen rocket SpaceX has transformed the space travel industry thanks to its pioneering work with reusable rockets. But there remains plenty of work to be done. The company's next-gen rocket, Starship, is currently in the test flight phase. Starship is central to SpaceX's long-term ambitions. Unlike the company's already highly successful Falcon 9 rocket, Starship was developed to be fully reusable. It could help decrease launch costs by 95% compared to Falcon 9. Starship is also much taller and has a much larger payload capacity.
SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, with the latest one introducing the newest version, dubbed V3, of the rocket. Right before the company's IPO about three weeks ago, SpaceX's COO, Gwynne Shotwell, said the 13th Starship flight test would take place in about a month -- which puts us at roughly mid-July at the latest. Shotwell also said she expects regular monthly flights for the rocket thereafter.
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Is SpaceX stock a buy? Another successful Starship flight test would bolster the bull case for SpaceX. However, there are reasons to remain skeptical about the company's future. Here are three of them. First, the company is not consistently profitable. In 2025, it posted a net loss of $4.9 billion, far worse than the $791 million in net income reported in 2024. Unprofitable companies can be attractive if their growth prospects look strong, which brings us to our second point: Average revenue per user (ARPU) within SpaceX's most important segment, Starlink, is declining. In the first quarter of 2026, Starlink's ARPU was $66, down from $86 in Q1 2025, and significantly lower than the $99 it recorded in 2023.
While Starlink subscribers continue to grow at a good clip, the declining ARPU may eventually lead to lower margins, especially as the company starts facing more competition and pricing pressure. One possible solution is for SpaceX to reduce the cost of launching LEO satellites. So the situation is by no means hopeless. Still, investors need to monitor Starlink's declining ARPU. Third, SpaceX might face significant regulatory headwinds over the long run, especially given that it relies on contracts from the U.S. federal government for 20% of its revenue.
So, what's the verdict? SpaceX could deliver life-changing returns if it can make significant progress with Starship and other initiatives, but the stock remains highly risky, especially at current levels. I'd wait for a major pullback before initiating a position.
SpaceX po krátkém růstu klesla na 147,55 USD za akcii, tedy pod debutní cenu 150 USD, a nyní čelí tlaku z ředění akcií i blížícího se uplynutí lock-upu. Další prodejní tlak může přijít po zveřejnění výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí a při dalších odemknutích akcií.
On Tuesday, June 23, its sixth full day of trading, the stock of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +1.36%), or SpaceX, briefly dipped to an all-time low of $147.55/share, below its debut price of $150/share. Since then, it hasn't closed above $157/share.
But is this price drop actually a buying opportunity in disguise? Here's what investors should know about SpaceX's prospects moving forward.
Image source: Getty Images.
Par for the course SpaceX's shares shot up to an intraday high of $176.52/share just after it began trading on Friday, June 12. Many observers thought that might be the high-water mark for the stock.
But SpaceX surprised everyone over the following two days as its stock price rocketed up to close at $211.39/share on Tuesday. This briefly put its market capitalization at $2.6 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth-largest company in the world. Analysts began to wonder if the classic trajectory of a hot IPO -- a brief Day 1 share price spike followed by a long, gradual decline -- didn't apply to SpaceX.
That dream was short-lived. The decline began the very next trading day, with shares eventually closing below $160/share on June 22, where they've mostly stayed since.
So, is now a good time to buy shares?
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SpaceX stock has a long road ahead of it There are two compelling reasons to stay away from SpaceX shares right now: dilution and lockup expiration.
Dilution comes from additional share issuances. SpaceX's recent agreement to acquire artificial intelligence developer Anysphere in a $60 billion all-stock deal already requires the issuance of about 400 million new shares. An additional preexisting deal for wireless spectrum will require the issuance of $11.1 billion in new shares in 2027. And various executive bonuses, stock options, settlements, and other awards totaling about $150 billion in new shares could be issued under certain conditions as well. These issuances will likely drive the share price lower.
Meanwhile, a healthy chunk of SpaceX's existing shares are currently on "lockup." Those shares will begin unlocking two trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, which is likely to occur in late July. Additional shares unlock throughout the year until the big 180-day lockup period expiration (for employees and most pre-IPO investors) on Dec. 8. Elon Musk's shares won't unlock until June 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Given widespread concerns about the company's sky-high valuation, there will be strong incentives for shareholders to sell their shares as soon as their lockups expire, which would put more near-term downward pressure on the stock.
In other words, if you want to buy and hold SpaceX shares for life, waiting at least until Dec. 9, after all those new shares have flooded the market, is likely to get you a better price than buying now. And waiting until 2027, when all shares are unlocked, and we'll have a year of quarterly numbers to help us evaluate the stock price, is probably an even smarter move.
SpaceX má 7. července vstoupit do Nasdaq-100, což má podle odhadů vyvolat asi 4,3 miliardy USD nucených nákupů ze strany pasivních fondů. Zároveň jedná s Charter Communications o backhaul pro Starlink Mobile.
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX will bypass traditional public market seasoning requirements to enter the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. This regulatory shift triggers an estimated $4.3 billion in forced institutional buying just weeks after the initial public offering. Paired with a rumored terrestrial backhaul partnership that positions Starlink Mobile to immediately challenge legacy telecom providers, SpaceX commands a near-term liquidity catalyst capable of temporarily overriding structural valuation headwinds.
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Index Gravity Squeeze: Front-Running the $4.3B Fast-TrackUsually, a newly public enterprise waits months or even years to join major market indexes. Nasdaq recently amended its eligibility framework, allowing mega-cap initial public offerings (IPO) to enter the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days. For SpaceX, a $2.10 trillion aerospace sector giant, this fast-track inclusion fundamentally alters the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics.
When a stock enters a major benchmark, passive funds tracking that index have no choice but to buy. These institutional funds do not evaluate price-to-sales ratios or profitability metrics. Their sole mandate is to replicate the index weight accurately.
SpaceX Today
$164.05 +10.82 (+7.06%)
As of 06/29/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$147.11▼
$225.64Price Target$212.67
J.P. Morgan modeling indicates that the July 7 reconstitution will require approximately $4.3 billion in mechanical passive inflows from benchmarked funds such as the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ. This incoming capital heavily compounds the estimated $3 billion SpaceX already absorbed from a recent fast-track inclusion into the Russell 1000 index.
This immense institutional buying pressure currently meets a structurally constrained supply of shares. Post-IPO lock-up agreements restrict early investors and executives from immediately liquidating their equity.
Approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale only after the first public earnings release on Aug. 6. The absence of this float severely restricts available liquidity leading into the July index event.
When billions of dollars of indiscriminate capital chase a capped share count, the resulting friction creates a highly predictable pre-inclusion price squeeze. Smart active managers often front-run these events, accumulating shares beforehand and forcing prices higher as the passive index funds scramble to secure their required allocations before the closing bell.
Ground Control to Charter CommunicationsBeyond the immediate mechanics of index arbitrage, a massive shift is occurring in how broadband and mobile data reach global consumers. Executive-level negotiations are reportedly advancing between SpaceX and Charter Communications Inc. NASDAQ: CHTR to route Starlink Mobile traffic through established terrestrial networks.
Understanding the significance of this move requires examining the massive capital expenditures required by traditional telecommunications. Legacy operators spend tens of billions of dollars laying fiber-optic cables and erecting cell towers to maintain their regional monopolies. Starlink Mobile aims to bypass much of this physical infrastructure by beaming connectivity directly from low Earth orbit to consumer devices. Space-to-ground data transmission requires foundational ground-based routing to handle heavy consumer traffic loads efficiently without severe latency.
Securing ground-based backhaul through a partner like Charter Communications allows Starlink to scale operations as a direct-to-consumer wireless provider instantly. SpaceX can challenge terrestrial network monopolies without bearing the prohibitive costs of building physical infrastructure.
This dual approach of dominating the orbital layer while piggybacking on existing terrestrial fiber rapidly accelerates the timeline for market capture against incumbent wireless carriers like Verizon NYSE: VZ and AT&T NYSE: T. The broader space infrastructure sector benefits heavily from these macro tailwinds as satellite broadband capabilities reach pricing and speed parity with legacy fiber networks, unlocking a massive new global subscriber base.
SpaceX Valuation Floats in the ExosphereAggressive physical and technological expansion requires monumental capital, and fixed-income markets are eager to fund it. SpaceX recently settled a five-tranche, $25 billion unsecured senior bond offering, stretching debt maturities out to 2056.
Institutional order books peaked near $90 billion, demonstrating robust willingness to finance heavy space-based capital expenditures. The proceeds explicitly retire a $20 billion bridge loan tied to earlier xAI infrastructure acquisitions, eliminating near-term maturity risk and securing a longer operational runway for massive satellite deployments.
Still, SpaceX’s current stock price reflects immense future expectations rather than current operational efficiency. At around $165 per share, the market capitalization sits at a towering $2.1 trillion. With annual sales of $19.3 billion, SpaceX commands a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 108. Investors are effectively paying roughly $108 for every single dollar of revenue SpaceX currently generates. Earnings data from May 7, prior to the public listing, showed a $1.27-per-share quarterly loss, contributing to an estimated $4.9 billion annual net deficit.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, June, 30, 2026
Institutional coverage is increasingly highlighting this fundamental disconnect between price action and core business metrics. Analysts at Morningstar explicitly labeled the $2 trillion valuation as stretched, assigning a much lower fair value of $780 billion. Argus Research recently initiated coverage with a cautious Hold rating.
These financial models warn of potential multiple compression once the Aug. 6 lock-up expires and restricted shares flood the open market. Bondholders are also scrutinizing the lack of current profitability, leading to slight weakness in secondary-market trading as credit spreads widen relative to risk-free Treasuries.
Brace for Re-Entry on August Lock-Up ExpirationThe immediate trajectory for SpaceX relies heavily on market mechanics rather than traditional earnings growth or deep value metrics. The $4.3 billion mandatory allocation from index trackers creates an undeniable short-term demand shock. Strategic investors often capitalize on this exact type of market structure, recognizing that forced institutional buying creates price inefficiencies that operate completely disconnected from fundamental valuation models.
Simultaneously, the broader space sector remains highly attractive as direct-to-device satellite communication transitions from a conceptual technology to a commercially viable reality. Strategic partnerships that provide terrestrial backhaul validate the Starlink business model and open up massive new addressable markets previously locked down by regional telecom providers.
Investors looking to navigate this specific environment might consider closely monitoring the daily trading volume leading up to the July 6 closing bell. The mechanics of index inclusion offer a clear, near-term liquidity catalyst for SpaceX, but cautious market participants may prefer to wait for the Aug. 6 lock-up expiration to assess how early insiders handle their newly liquid equity before committing long-term capital to the aerospace leader.
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SpaceX má tři kontrakty na AI výpočetní kapacitu, které dohromady přinášejí asi 2,32 miliardy USD měsíčně, tedy 27,8 miliardy USD ročně. To více než zdvojnásobuje jeho tržby.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%), better known as SpaceX, has three distinct parts of its business -- rocket launches, satellite internet, and the xAI artificial intelligence business. While the first two are certainly impressive, market-leading businesses, the AI division has produced the biggest headlines in recent months.
In fact, although xAI was the biggest drag on SpaceX's bottom line in 2025, it's starting to look like 2027 and beyond could be a very different story. Here's how SpaceX's new AI compute business has already more than doubled its revenue, where it could go from here, and why investors should pay attention.
Image source: Getty Images.
Three AI compute deals -- so far Here's a quick rundown of where SpaceX's AI compute business stands today. And keep in mind that all of this is revenue that didn't exist prior to its IPO:
First, Anthropic signed a deal to access more than 300 MW of compute capacity and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. This agreement brings in $1.25 billion per month for SpaceX through May 2029. That's $18 billion per year from this deal alone. Next, Google signed a compute deal that begins in October and runs through June 2029, giving the hyperscaler access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and is expected to generate $920 million in monthly revenue. Finally, the smallest of the three deals, but still a highly significant development, is a deal from fast-growing start-up Reflection AI to access Nvidia chips at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center for $150 per month. Combined, the three deals will provide about $2.32 billion in monthly revenue, or $27.8 billion annualized. Keep in mind that SpaceX's business -- including Starlink, the rocket launches, and xAI -- combined for $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. Even though Starlink and the rocket business continue to scale rapidly in 2026, this has more than doubled SpaceX's revenue.
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Not only has this generated revenue, but it's also an example of a savvy way to turn a problem (xAI was using only about 11% of its compute capacity for its own purposes) into a win.
Who could be next? SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 that it "expects to enter into additional similar services contracts for compute capacity with third parties," and while this statement was made before the most recent deals, it indicates that this business could be a big part of the company's AI future.
There's no way to know who might be next, but there's no shortage of potential compute customers. Other AI providers, such as OpenAI, are an obvious example, as are hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT 1.22%).
Of course, companies like Microsoft, Google, and others can (and do) build their own data centers -- that's a big portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures they've announced for 2026. But a capital-light approach (renting instead of owning) is likely starting to look more appealing, especially now that the AI build-out is scaling to the point where these companies are being forced to take on more debt and spend all of their free cash flow to keep up.
In addition to any of the other potential customers who will undoubtedly need more computing power in the future than they do today, it's also important to mention that there's certainly the possibility that the three existing customers could expand their deals over time. For example, Anthropic's business has grown tenfold in the past year, and if it continues to grow exponentially, the company's compute needs could get much larger.
Why is this so important? Not only have SpaceX's three AI compute deals more than doubled its revenue, but they could also be a big step forward in showing investors a path to profitability. In fact, the AI compute business has the potential to become the highest margin part of SpaceX. Consider that other GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV 1.54%) operate at gross margins near 70%, and in SpaceX's case, margins could be even higher as SpaceX's Colossus data centers were already built and were simply underutilized. Now, Starlink has excellent margins, but the AI compute business has massive potential for both top-line growth and producing billions in free cash flow.
To be clear, even with all of this in mind, SpaceX is still not a cheap stock. Even if the company's revenue run rate reaches $50 billion by the end of 2026, it will still be valued at about 40 times sales (based on the current stock price) and will lack any established track record of profitability. So, I'm not saying that SpaceX is a buy based on its AI compute business itself. There's a lot that will need to go well throughout its business to ultimately justify the current valuation.
Having said that, the progress in the AI compute business has been impressive to say the least. If SpaceX can continue to build it out, it could be a big win for the company and its investors.
SpaceX vydala dluhopisy za 25 miliard USD a poptávka byla obrovská, téměř 90 miliard USD v objednávkách. Emise ale vyvolala obavy z vysokých kapitálových výdajů a budoucího refinancování.
SpaceX's $25 billion foray into debt markets appeared to be well received by bond markets last week, with huge demand for the offering.
But one of the biggest-ever AI bond issuances, less than two weeks after SpaceX's IPO, has highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations — and posed a diversification challenge for investors.
Why SpaceX tapped debt marketsThe group tapped debt markets on June 22, announcing a senior unsecured notes offering, with sources telling CNBC that the company was looking to raise $20 billion, which was then increased to $25 billion. The company said it would use the net proceeds to "repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full, to pay related fees and expenses, and any remaining amount for general corporate purposes."
SpaceX stock soared after its hotly-anticipated IPO. Last week's debt issuance dented investor confidence.
SpaceX received nearly $90 billion worth of orders, people familiar with the fundraising previously told CNBC. They asked not to be named because the details are private.
But the move appeared to unnerve equity investors, with SpaceX falling more than 13% for the week after a strong post-IPO run.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said SpaceX will increasingly have to "work hard to make itself heard," adding there are plenty of offerings from more profitable concerns that can steal the limelight.
"Equity investors are one thing, but bond guys are the grown-ups in the room," Beauchamp told CNBC via email. "SpaceX might find it has its work cut out for it, but I suspect the market can absorb the issuance overall."
"The timing certainly isn't great, but we have seen brief bouts of panic like this before, and the wagon tends to roll onwards in the end."
Christopher Della Fave, senior vice president, capital markets at Post Oak Group, said: "Two weeks after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX is already tapping debt markets while carrying a $5 billion net loss and capex that more than doubled year over year."
Why SpaceX bonds raise diversification questionsDella Fave said SpaceX's losses and high capital expenditure aren't "alarming" in isolation, as "capital-intensive growth companies run hot."
However, he highlighted "the structural issue" that "investors aren't pricing in."
"Owning SPCX equity and SpaceX bonds isn't diversification," Della Fave added. "It's the same execution risk across two instruments."
"Starlink has to scale. Starship has to work. Both the equity story and the debt service depend on it. For portfolio construction, we treat total SpaceX exposure as a single concentrated position regardless of instrument, the same way you'd approach any single-name technology bet dressed up as a multi-asset allocation."
SpaceX's multi-billion-dollar debt issuance means many investors have become exposed to the group via two different asset classes – equities, via its blockbuster IPO on June 12 – and now, corporate bonds.
"Nearly all investors already hold allocations to US technology and the purpose of bonds as an asset class is surely to diversify," Julian Howard, multi-asset head at Gam, told CNBC on Friday.
He pointed out that SpaceX's 10-year issue is trading at a relatively tight spread to the equivalent U.S. Treasury of 1.4 percentage points.
In the debt sale, SpaceX priced bonds in five different tranches, with notes due between 2031 and 2056. Rates vary from 5.35% for the 2031 bonds to 6.65% for the 2056 notes.
"While that is comfortably ahead of inflation, the risk will be that spreads will widen if there is any hint of SpaceX not meeting its ambitious revenue targets, or if the outlook for tech and AI falters in any way," he added.
In the long term, SpaceX faces two big challenges in the markets, said Morningstar chief investment officer Mike Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetize gains," he told CNBC.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
SpaceX otestovala Starfall, znovupoužitelnou návratovou kapsli pro až 1 tunu nákladu z oběžné dráhy. Firma ji cílí na vojenskou logistiku i návrat materiálů z mikrogravitace.
On Tuesday, June 23, a SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying a vehicle most people had never heard of. The payload was called Starfall -- a disc-shaped reentry pod, 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall, designed to carry up to 1 metric ton of cargo from low-Earth orbit back to Earth's surface.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) described it publicly as a "microgravity lab" for scientific research and in-space manufacturing. What the Federal Aviation Administration's environmental assessment called it was more specific: a vehicle to "enable point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines."
Image source: Getty Images.
Those two descriptions are both accurate, and the gap between them is where the investor story lives.
The vehicle is not capable of de-orbiting itself. It relies on its launch vehicle -- a Falcon 9 today, potentially Starship later -- to guide it back toward the atmosphere, after which it orients its heat shield using compressed nitrogen gas and descends by parachute to a splashdown zone. It's smaller than SpaceX's Crew Dragon, built exclusively for cargo, and recoverable -- SpaceX intends to retrieve the vehicle and its parachutes for reuse.
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Two markets to pay attention to Two markets emerge immediately from that design profile. The first is military logistics. The Pentagon has been working toward a space-based point-to-point cargo delivery capability for years. In 2022, the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded SpaceX a $102 million contract to demonstrate the concept using Starship -- the ability to deliver roughly a C-17 Globemaster's worth of supplies anywhere on the planet in under 90 minutes. Starfall, smaller and deployable on the existing Falcon 9, is a complementary tool for lighter, more targeted deliveries that don't require Starship's enormous footprint or a prepared landing site. The Pentagon has signed similar early-stage agreements with Rocket Lab (RKLB +4.67%), Blue Origin, and Anduril for reentry vehicle development. SpaceX is the only company flying a working vehicle today.
The second market is commercial in-space manufacturing, and it's further along than most people realize. Varda Space Industries signed a partnership with United Therapeutics in May 2026 to manufacture drugs in microgravity -- specifically targeting small-molecule crystallization processes that Earth's gravity renders structurally imperfect. Varda CEO Will Bruey put the economics plainly at the 2026 Upfront Summit: A launch capable of processing space-manufactured drugs and returning them to Earth now costs roughly $2.2 million -- a number that makes pharmaceutical microgravity viable at commercial scale for the first time. Starfall, with its 1-metric-ton payload capacity and reusable design, is positioned as the return infrastructure that makes that supply chain possible at volume.
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This is where SpaceX's structural advantage over every competitor in this space becomes relevant to investors. Rocket Lab is targeting a 2026 demonstration of reentry capability on its Neutron rocket -- which has not yet flown. Blue Origin is earlier in the development process. Inversion Space received a $71 million contract for its Arc reentry vehicle, which remains in development. SpaceX flew Starfall on Tuesday. That lead time matters in a market where government procurement decisions follow demonstrated capability, not road maps.
The military's REGAL program -- Rocket Experimentation for Global Agile Logistics -- has explicitly framed point-to-point space cargo as a pathway to becoming a program of record, meaning recurring annual defense budget line items rather than one-time research and development (R&D) grants. SpaceX's $102 million AFRL contract was the first significant step in that direction. Starfall's successful demonstration puts the company in a position to substantially expand that relationship.
What this means for SPCX shareholders -- or those interested in investing Here is where the honest qualification belongs. Starfall's commercial potential is real, but the timelines are long, and the revenue is not yet material on SpaceX's financials. The company's near-term revenue story is Starlink, which generated $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 and remains the only profitable segment. Even in an optimistic scenario where it wins military contracts and becomes the backbone of orbital pharmaceutical manufacturing, Starfall adds revenue on a multiyear timeline.
For investors looking at SpaceX in a week when the stock has already fallen nearly 30% from its peak due to valuation and float concerns, Starfall is the kind of development that validates the long-term thesis without changing the short-term math.
It is also worth saying plainly: None of this is new. SpaceX has been demonstrating breakthrough capability for years, and investors who needed Tuesday's test to feel confident in the underlying technology were perhaps not paying close enough attention. SpaceX is building real technology that solves real problems.
The question that was true before Tuesday and remains true after it is whether the current price -- which sits 53% above Morningstar's base-case intrinsic value -- gives investors enough room for execution risk on programs that haven't yet generated meaningful revenue.
The technology is not what's in question. The valuation still is.
SpaceX became one of the quickest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, setting up a fresh wave of buying from passive investors less than a month after the company's blockbuster public debut.
Nasdaq announced after the close Friday whether SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index. Assuming the company meets the requirements, index-tracking funds and other product sponsors would begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which is one of the most popular securities traded each day and is seen as a barometer for the artificial intelligence bull market.
The aerospace and satellite company is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Adding SpaceX this quickly would make the Elon Musk company one of the first beneficiaries of Nasdaq's recently adopted fast-track inclusion framework for newly public companies. The changes allow some large IPOs to become eligible for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, dramatically shortening what had historically been a far longer waiting period.
Under the previous framework, investors tracking the Nasdaq-100 could be forced to wait months before gaining exposure to newly listed market giants.
The inclusion could create another source of demand for SpaceX, which has been one of the most actively traded stocks since its June 12 debut. Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 would need to buy shares to match the benchmark's new composition, while active managers who track the index closely might also adjust positions.
Because SpaceX's publicly tradable float remains small compared with its total market capitalization, even a modest index weighting could require meaningful purchases from passive investment vehicles.
Earlier this month, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to create a similar fast-track process for the S&P 500. Therefore, SpaceX remains ineligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 because of that index's separate profitability and seasoning requirements.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is considering launching a Starlink-branded mobile phone service in the United States, according to a Financial Times report published on Friday, potentially expanding the company's role in the telecommunications market.
The report cited comments from SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell during a recent investor roadshow, where she reportedly discussed plans for a direct-to-consumer wireless offering and the possibility of building a terrestrial mobile network in the US.
SpaceX currently works with T-Mobile to provide direct-to-cell satellite connectivity aimed at extending coverage to remote areas. A standalone mobile service would place the Elon Musk-led company in more direct competition with established wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.
According to the Financial Times, SpaceX has told investors that a retail Starlink mobile product could allow the company to capture a larger share of customer revenue by combining satellite capabilities with terrestrial wireless infrastructure.
The company strengthened its wireless spectrum holdings through acquisitions of EchoStar licenses totaling about $19.6 billion, including a roughly $17 billion purchase in September 2025 and an additional $2.6 billion transaction in November.
Starlink has more than 10 million subscribers worldwide and has become a key contributor to SpaceX's record valuation.
Shares of SpaceX traded hands at $153 on Friday, after debuting at $135 per share on June 12.
SpaceX se po pátečním uzavření obchodování přidá do indexů Russell, což může vyvolat nákupy za téměř 3 miliardy USD a zvýšit volatilitu akcie. Titul už po vstupu na burzu prudce kolísá.
SpaceX logo as an employe looks at his phone while making his way to work at the company’s facility on the day of the SpaceX IPO, in Hawthorne, California, U.S. June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mike... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
June 26 (Reuters) - Even by SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab standards, Friday is shaping up as an eventful trading session as investment funds tracking Russell indexes prepare to add billions of dollars' worth of Elon Musk's internet and rocket company to their holdings.
After a blockbuster initial public offering this month, SpaceX's stock has been on a wild ride, soaring 67% to its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 before tumbling to Thursday's $153 close.
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The stock remains well above the $135 IPO price as investors assess how to value a company that lost $4.9 billion last year, but that backers expect to dominate the satellite internet, AI and commercial space launch markets that they believe will define the next decade of global infrastructure.
FTSE Russell will add SpaceX to its Russell U.S. indexes after Friday's close of trading as part of its semi-annual index reconstitution. That means passively managed exchange-traded funds that track Russell indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB.P), opens new tab, will have to add SpaceX shares to their portfolios. The event will likely take place in a narrow window toward market close on Friday as fund managers attempt to minimize the "tracking error" between their funds' performance and the index that can result if their buy-in price differs from the closing price.
While SpaceX's $2 trillion market capitalization makes it almost as valuable as Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, only about $100 billion of shares have been listed for trading on the stock market, with the rest owned by Musk, other insiders and employees. Passively managed funds will need to buy almost $3 billion worth of SpaceX shares to match the Russell indexes they track, Jefferies estimated in a report this month. That could mean a squeeze as Friday's closing auction approaches, though options positioning appeared muted.
SpaceX options contracts set to expire on Friday are priced for a share price swing of 3.6% in either direction by the end of the week, Trade Alert data showed.
SpaceX is also set to be added to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab in July, an event that will force large index funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks that index, to buy its shares.
Following its losses in recent sessions, SpaceX is trading at 107 times its 2025 sales, an astronomical valuation. By comparison, AI heavyweight chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab recently traded at 21 times sales.
S&P Global blocked SpaceX from joining the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab after it said this month it would not change its inclusion criteria to accommodate megacap IPOs. To be included in the S&P 500, a company must be profitable in its most recent quarter as well as for the sum of its most recent four quarters, according to one of the rules S&P left unchanged.
The S&P 500 addition in 2020 of another Musk company, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, resulted in a closing squeeze that sent shares up 6%.
Reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; editing by Colin Barr, Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
San Francisco correspondent covering the stock market with a focus on Big Tech, semiconductors and other Silicon Valley companies
SpaceX po IPO zažívá prudké výkyvy, když akcie po úvodním růstu o více než 60 % následně spadly až o 16 %. Retailoví investoři v prvních pěti obchodních seancích nakoupili čistě za 405 milionů USD.
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Rollercoaster. That's probably the most accurate word to describe SpaceX's opening two weeks as a public company.
The stock surged for several successive days following a record-breaking IPO, briefly overtaking both Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market cap and rising more than 60% on the initial share offering price of $135.
But the good times weren't set to last. Daily drops of 5% and 4% were followed by a 16% slump as jitters crept into the market. Steadier days followed, with single point moves in either direction.
The volatility underscores the whipsaw nature of a story-driven stock.
Lofty sci-fi ambitions, huge coverage in the *ahem* media and a founder with a cult-like following whipped up a frenzy of excitement around the company.
"Most stocks trade based on how their multiple of earnings compares to other comparable stocks," Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told me.
"Elon Musk companies don't really do that." Musk's ventures instead trade on expectations, he added.
"Tesla trades more on [autonomous driving service] Robotaxi and [humanoid robot] Optimus than they do on selling cars, and SpaceX trades more on the promise of Mars exploration, or at least data centers in space," said Luria.
Retail investors bought into that forward-looking narrative in droves.
SpaceX "embodies many of the qualities that have historically resonated with retail investors: a transformational technology story, a bold vision of the future, a celebrity founder and unparalleled media attention," Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda, said.
In the first five trading sessions, retail investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX shares, comfortably the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history, said research firm Vanda.
"For SpaceX, the 'cult of Elon' pulls in more retail investors and adds extra hype that can add a lot to volatility as we saw with Tesla share prices," Mike Coop, chief investment officer, EMEA at Morningstar Wealth, told me. Morningstar analysts caused a stir in the run-up to SpaceX's IPO, writing that the stock was worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion target.
After a bullish initial few days on the public markets, fundamentals became a bigger driver of the price causing a "hangover," said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Musk has been, in a somewhat predictable fashion, touting sky-high revenue growth in years to come. He said on June 14 that the company "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion revenue in 2030.
That would mark a huge jump from the $18.7 billion in revenue SpaceX made in 2025. The company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, and it lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Long term SpaceX faces two big challenges on the markets, said Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetise gains," he said.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
Despite that, so far few have been willing to bet against the stock.
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame said on June 16 that he has no position in SpaceX, and argued that options used to wager against the stock remain too expensive even as he questioned the company's nearly $3 trillion market value.
And while SpaceX is seeing some interest from short sellers, many are still reluctant to bet against Musk.
Time will tell how far narrative takes SpaceX stock. In any case, expect more twists and turns on the rollercoaster.
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Stock of the week
Micron stock.
Memory chipmaker Micron had a good week as its third-quarter results topped analysts' estimates.
The U.S. company has been one of the main beneficiaries of the AI boom, with its stock price up more than 800% over the past year, lifting the company's market cap past $1 trillion.
SpaceX plánuje příští měsíc začít stavět 8mílové potrubí Starpipe do texaských zařízení pro starty Starship. Potrubí má být v provozu do 26. ledna a má urychlit starty rakety.
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to start building 8-mile pipeline next monthProject would fuel more launches of Starship moon rocketPipeline is part of sprawling SpaceX gas plans in TexasWASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile (13-km) natural gas pipeline called "Starpipe" to its Texas launch facilities, according to county filings, as Elon Musk’s company seeks to ramp up launches of its next‑generation Starship rocket.
Starpipe, which will end at SpaceX’s Texas company town of Starbase, is expected to be in service by January 26, according to a document filed last month with the Texas Railroad Commission by SpaceX affiliate Lone Star Mineral Development and reviewed by Reuters.
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The pipeline plan, previously reported by Rio Grande Valley Business Journal, signals Musk's intent to accelerate Starship's development and lay the groundwork for a faster flight rate. The 40‑story rocket is central to SpaceX’s push to expand its Starlink broadband network, deploy orbital AI data center satellites, and eventually carry astronauts to the moon and Mars.
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons (2.4 million liters) of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds and eventually thousands of launches a year.
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX'S BIG GAS PLANSThough it is unusual for a space company to build its own natural gas pipeline for launchpad fuel, Starpipe might only be an initial step in a longer-term plan for SpaceX, which has spent years exploring its own drilling operations near Starbase and throughout Texas, according to a Reuters review of Cameron County land records.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on June 12, when the company went public, that the company planned to build pipelines and process its own propellant, and was looking into drilling its own natural gas.
Extracting natural gas would be a challenging pursuit for a company with no oil and gas experience, said Stan Lindsey, an oil and gas consultant in Texas.
“I’m not saying it's beyond the realm of possibility … it’s possible they got a really nice prospect," Lindsey said. But if those drilling plans fall short, he added, “they’ve got a fallback position” with Starpipe.
SpaceX has signed over 100 paid-up oil and gas leases with Texas property owners since 2023, the land records show.
Starpipe would begin on an 83-acre (34-hectare) piece of land at the Port of Brownsville that SpaceX is in talks to lease from the city for 50 years, a port official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.
Engineering plans SpaceX filed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included in a public notice issued last August, show SpaceX wants to build a liquefaction facility at Starbase to process the piped-in natural gas into liquid methane.
"Certainly that would make the most efficient sense," said William Farrar, a longtime oil and gas lawyer in Texas and geoscientist.
The company could tap into Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline expansion project that would run close to Starpipe's start point, Lindsey said.
Enbridge did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX WANTS TO OWN SUPPLY CHAINSpaceX's move into gas infrastructure, typically the domain of energy and pipeline firms, underscores its longstanding strategy of controlling as much of its supply chain as possible, a capital‑intensive approach that has helped the company outpace rivals in rocket and spacecraft development.
The effort positions SpaceX to manage an unusually broad chain of resources, stretching from natural gas deep beneath Earth's surface to the moon, where Musk wants to use lunar material for AI‑focused satellite production, an ambitious and untested goal.
The pipeline’s 16‑inch (406-mm) diameter suggests fuel demand exceeding what Starship would require for 25 launches, the annual cadence currently approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.
SpaceX ultimately aims to deploy thousands of solar‑powered, AI‑focused satellites whose combined energy output could approach one-fifth of the U.S. power grid, according to its initial public offering prospectus.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Joe Brock and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.