Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Elon Musk says he expects "death and consolidation" across the AI cloud industry. That's a pretty dire warning, especially from someone whose own enterprise, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.(SPCX -0.40%), is now as much an AI cloud provider as it is a rocket company.

But Musk says that those very revenues from the rest of SpaceX's numerous businesses are exactly what will protect SpaceX's AI efforts from the capital crunch smaller players are facing. Is he right?

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$146.90-$0.59 (-0.40%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/26/26

Musk warns of an AI cloud financing crunchIn a Sunday post on X, Musk said: "As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers."

He followed with a dramatic warning of the consequences: "That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many."

CoreWeave's debt highlights the risks of expensive financingWhile there hasn't been any reporting that confirms his claim that debt markets have "almost entirely shut off access" for neoclouds," it is plainly true that financing is gettin much more expensive.

Yields on unsecured CoreWeave -- the poster child for neoclouds -- bonds jumped to 15% in recent weeks, firmly in "distressed" territory, and the cost to insure that debt against default has skyrocketed. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads for CoreWeave have spiked above 1,100 basis points, implying the market sees a more than 50% chance the company will default in the next five years.

This alone is a major red flag and a serious threat to CoreWeave's core model. The company essentially borrows money to buy chips, installs them in a data center it leases, and then rents those GPUs out to its customers. If borrowing gets too expensive, the math no longer works out, and shareholders lose hope they'll see a return on investment.

But if funding truly dries up, the model breaks.

SpaceX has other revenue sources to support borrowingThis is why SpaceX has an advantage, according to Musk. The revenue from its other businesses makes it a much more attractive borrower. Lenders like seeing income from other sources that can help the company continue to pay its debts even if its AI cloud business takes longer to pay off than expected.

CoreWeave and other neoclouds don't have that luxury, and many are more or less entirely reliant on borrowed money to survive. Still, Musk's warning may be too sweeping. Nebius, for instance, secured a $3.5 billion credit facility from Citi just last week, showing that lenders haven't stopped financing the industry altogether.

SpaceX's AI spending still needs to pay offBut is SpaceX immune? Not entirely. It certainly is a much more attractive borrower than most neoclouds and has a diversified revenue mix it can draw on to fund its AI ambitions. And beyond that, its own AI division's revenue is skyrocketing with several lucrative contracts, the first of which is beginning to pay out.

Image source: Getty Images.

But I think investors need to be somewhat careful about how much comfort they take from that. Revenue is only part of the picture and can be somewhat misleading. What matters more is cash, and right now, the company is still spending a whole lot more of it than it is bringing in.

So, while I think SpaceX doesn't face the same imminent threat as neoclouds like CoreWeave, I do think its AI bets are still unproven. SpaceX still needs to earn enough from its AI infrastructure to justify the enormous cost of building it, including the interest it owes lenders.

EasyJet's Starlink deal is a potential edge over Ryanair, Europe's dominant budget airline. Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Getty Images Elon Musk's Starlink has won its latest customer, a budget airline that could put pressure on one of the WiFi service's biggest critics.

EasyJet announced on Monday that the high-speed WiFi service would be deployed on its airplanes from the first half of next year. The British airline, which carries 100 million passengers a year, hopes to have Starlink installed across its 300-strong fleet by early 2028.

The deal means two of Europe's three biggest budget airlines have committed to Starlink.

Wizz Air, a Hungarian carrier that flies about 70 million passengers a year, signed up in June.

That leaves Ryanair, the continent's largest airline and the world's third-largest, as the only one of Europe's biggest budget carriers without the service.

Its CEO, Michael O'Leary, is well-known for being outspoken and took aim at Starlink earlier this year, leading to a spat with Musk.

"We don't think ‍our ⁠passengers are willing to pay for WiFi for an average ⁠one-hour flight," O'Leary told Reuters in January.

While Starlink is typically offered free to passengers, O'Leary also complained about increased fuel costs due to the aerodynamic drag of a Starlink terminal, installed on the top of airplanes.

Musk responded in an X post, arguing that Ryanair — which carries over 200 million passengers a year — would lose customers to airlines that do have internet access.

Over the next week, the two CEOs called each other idiots while Musk called for O'Leary to be fired and joked about purchasing the airline.

But Ryanair appeared to have the last laugh, using the publicity to launch a "Big 'Idiot' Sale" with 100,000 tickets starting at £16.99, or about $23.

The situation has some parallels with the US's Big Three airlines. While United Airlines has Starlink on almost half of its fleet and American Airlines is starting installations early next year, Delta Air Lines has instead tapped Amazon Leo, beginning in 2028.

This has led Musk to insult Delta's CEO, Ed Bastian, and call for his firing.

But American passengers are wealthier and more interested in premium offerings than their European counterparts. That trend has also prompted US budget airlines to offer comfier seats and package deals.

Adding free amenities for passengers is at odds with the typical no-frills budget-airline business model that relies on extra charges to turn a profit.

However, easyJet and Wizz may see Starlink as a way to gain an edge over Ryanair.

That may not last forever, though. In a January earnings call, O'Leary said, "I think as the WiFi technology improves over the next four or five years, we'll all be offering free WiFi access."

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Pete Syme is an aviation reporter for Business Insider, based in London.He writes about all things related to the industry, from aviation safety and CEO interviews to route reveals and airplane tours. Pete also uses data for industry analyses and to visualize breaking news events.Before joining Business Insider in 2022, he graduated with an MA in Newspaper Journalism from City, University of London, and a BA in English from the University of Exeter.

Starlink Elon Musk Aviation More Airlines

U.S. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar is the only lawmaker among seven members of Congress to report a sale of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock since the company went public in June.

According to her trading disclosure, Salazar sold between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of SpaceX stock on September 24, 2026, at an average share price of $148.03. She disclosed the transaction on October 7.

The sale is notable because Salazar had purchased SpaceX shares on August 12 at an average price of $146.27, before selling shares approximately six weeks later.

Salazar serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Financial Services committees, though no evidence directly links her committee roles to the SpaceX sale.

SPCX Congress trades  Meanwhile, despite being relatively new to the public market, SpaceX has attracted interest from members of Congress, with six lawmakers purchasing shares in Elon Musk’s company.

Gilbert Ray Cisneros Jr., William R. Timmons IV, John McGuire, Daniel Meuser, Jared Moskowitz and John James all reported purchases. 

SPCX Congress trades. Source: MarketBeat Most of the Congress trades ranged from $1,001 to $15,000, while Timmons disclosed a purchase worth between $50,001 and $100,000.

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Notably, SpaceX went public in June 2026, pricing its IPO at $135 per share and a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. 

SPCX stock fundamentals  SpaceX’s expanding business spans rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and AI infrastructure. The company generated $27.08 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2026 and $4.4 billion in third-quarter net income.

However, it spent $48.1 billion on capital expenditures and burned nearly $35 billion in cash over the same period. 

Its high valuation, heavy investment needs, and ambitious projects, including Starship, could fuel share-price volatility despite strong revenue growth.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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Elon Musk said SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to purchase graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to power artificial intelligence systems.

In a post on X on Sunday, Musk said SpaceX had closed the financing, adding that the company was investment grade and generated revenue from its Starlink satellite internet and rocket launch businesses.

In a follow-up post, he added that the financing, primarily consisted of callable debt for graphics processing units, is expected to arrive in the first and second quarters of 2027.

Bloomberg reported earlier, citing people familiar with the matter, that SpaceX was in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to purchase Nvidia chips.

The proposed financing would use a special purpose vehicle to keep the debt off SpaceX's balance sheet and preserve its investment-grade credit ratings, according to Bloomberg. 

Goldman Sachs was leading talks with investors, including Apollo Global Management, over the financing structure, according to Bloomberg.

The financing underscores the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom, as technology companies pour billions of dollars into advanced chips and data centers to support increasingly powerful AI models.

SpaceX has expanded aggressively into artificial intelligence this year, referring to the business as "Super Intelligence," or SI.

The segment has become the company's largest business unit, with third-quarter revenue surging ninefold to $7.56 billion from $813 million a year earlier, according to its latest earnings release.

Musk also said that debt markets have largely shut off access to financing for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers.

He predicted that more than 200 so-called neocloud companies, which provide cloud computing infrastructure specifically designed for artificial intelligence and machine learning workloads, would face widespread failures and consolidation, with only a small number surviving.

Elon Musk just promised millions of people a gift. On Monday, the co-founder and CEO of Tesla (TSLA -0.63%) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%) wrote in a post at X -- the social media platform formerly known as Twitter -- "Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America." He then added, "This will be the first of many."

It sounds good, particularly if you're one of those children about to receive the gift. But what will it cost, and who pays other than Musk?

Musk didn't add any other details. We can, however, make some reasonable assumptions about how this will work.

More than enough already in hand
Musk doesn't need to dilute existing shareholders by issuing new shares of SPCX to make good on his gift. Musk himself effectively controls or personally owns 6.4 billion A shares of the recently public company, in addition to 3.9 billion B shares. There's another 1.3 billion restricted B shares that could soon become his as well, plus 350 million more that he could purchase if he chooses to exercise his options.

For comparison, there are currently just over 72 million children under the age of 18 residing in the United States, according to The Annie E. Casey Foundation. Assuming Musk is using the same standard about who qualifies as a kid, he could give away a mere 1.8% of the 3.9 billion B shares he already owns and still fulfill his promise.

SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.

His total net cost? At today's price, that's roughly $12 billion worth of SPCX stock, which, of course, is only a fraction of his estimated net worth of right around $1 trillion right now.

And it's almost certainly SpaceX's B shares that Musk intends to give away. Although he personally owns just a little less than half of the company, the A shares' voting power is 10 times that of B shares, effectively giving Musk 85% control of Space Exploration Technologies. He's not apt to give any of that up.

Barely a blip
As for what it means to every other SPCX shareholder, the answer is not a lot... at least not initially. Musk can personally afford to fund the entirety of this gift. No dilution is necessary. 

Longer-term, though, there is a slight conceivable impact. This will put a single share of SpaceX stock in 72 million different investors' hands, with little clarity as to how or even whether selling it will be restricted. Hopefully, most of these recipients will hang onto it indefinitely and use it as a seed for a retirement nest egg. Many of them will likely sell it at their first opportunity, however.

Fortunately, nearly 100 million shares of SPCX trade hands every single day. The market should be able to absorb such a disruption without too much turmoil.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%) shares soared after Elon Musk predicted the company could deliver annual recurring revenue (ARR) of between $500 billion and $1 trillion in 2027. If SpaceX hits those 2027 revenue estimates, the stock looks like a strong buy.

However, Musk acknowledged that meeting all his 2027 targets was not guaranteed, and that there are risks to the company's ability to reach these goals. SpaceX stock was up about 9% from its $135 IPO price before its earnings report on Tuesday.

Let's take a closer look at its results and prospects to see whether the stock still looks like a buy.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX has big ambitions Musk's huge ARR projections stem mainly from increased compute capacity and an increased rocket-launch cadence. The company plans to bring online an additional 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, which is up considerably from Musk saying last quarter that the company planned to have cumulative compute power closer to 10 gigawatts than 5 gigawatts after ending 2026 with around 2 gigawatts. He added there was a small possibility it could have over 20 gigawatts of compute power online by the end of next year.

In addition to increasing compute capacity, SpaceX plans to accelerate its launch schedule in 2027. Its goal is for Starship to fly weekly in the first half of the year and possibly twice a week in the second half. This, of course, depends on the company being able to rapidly recover, refurbish, and fully reuse its Starship rocket, which it still needs to do.

Turning to its results, SpaceX's Q3 revenue surged 161% to $14.6 billion, topping the $12.7 billion analyst consensus, as compiled by LSEG. Its net income from operations came in at $2.8 billion, while net income was $4.4 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) more than quadrupled to $8.8 billion.

The company's growth was led by its superintelligence (formerly AI) segment, as revenue climbed from $813 million a year ago to $7.56 billion. Segment EBITDA, meanwhile, went from a loss of $428 million to a profit of $4.95 billion. SpaceX is mainly renting out compute capacity on a short-term basis and benefiting from high prices, as it continues to see a payback on its investments in less than a year.

Starlink, the company's satellite internet service, also had a strong quarter. Revenue in its connectivity segment climbed 69%, while its operating income roughly doubled to $2.4 billion. Starlink subscribers climbed 89% year over year and were up 13% sequentially. Meanwhile, Musk said its acquisition of low-band spectrum will help it become a major mobile carrier in the U.S. some time in 2028.

Its space segment, home to its reusable rocket and launch service business, saw revenue rise 6% to $1.8 billion. However, the segment's operating income flipped from a profit of $259 million to a loss of $7 million. Importantly, the company said it was on track to recover the first and second stages at the tower this year and then refly the second stage early next year.

Looking ahead, SpaceX said it remains on track to reach $100 billion in ARR by the end of 2026. It expects to have up to 3 gigawatts of compute power online by year-end and anticipates Q4 capital expenditures of between $35 billion and $40 billion.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$147.49+$2.74 (+1.89%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

If SpaceX can end 2027 with ARR between $500 billion and $1 trillion, the stock should move significantly higher, given that the current 2028 analyst revenue consensus is under $250 billion. Just applying a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of nearly 10 times on $500 billion in 2028 revenue would give the stock a $5 trillion market cap, more than double where it trades today.

However, Musk's forecast should be taken with a grain of salt, as his track record of ambitious predictions has been pretty spotty. First, the company needs to achieve its goals with Starship, which, while it is making progress, will be no easy task.

Meanwhile, much of SpaceX's projected growth is set to come from AI infrastructure, which will require massive capex. It is also worth noting that SpaceX is benefiting from a compute-starved world, allowing it to command high prices and get quick paybacks on its investments. If supply and demand start to become more balanced due to its own aggressive infrastructure spending, its current AI economics could worsen.

Overall, SpaceX still has strong upside potential even after its post-earnings surge, but there are also risks to the story.

CoreWeave stock has been under pressure lately. Investors are concerned about the company's heavy debt load, plans for additional large capital expenditures to continue building out its artificial intelligence (AI) data center footprint, and surging interest expenses.

Making matters worse, the company is facing ramping competition in the neocloud space. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%) built its name around its reusable rocket technologies, orbital launch services, and its Starlink satellite communications network, but the company is also rapidly scaling its neocloud business. That could create additional pressures for CoreWeave.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX has rapidly become a neocloud leader
SpaceX's recently published third-quarter report showed that sales for its artificial intelligence businesses surged 830% higher year over year to reach $7.56 billion. Meanwhile, its space segment's sales increased 6% to $1.77 billion, and its connectivity segment grew revenue by 69% to $5.25 billion. In other words, the company's AI businesses now generate more money than its space and connectivity segments combined.

SpaceX's AI revenue includes contributions from Grok and other sources, but the large majority of its segment sales in the quarter likely came from renting out compute to customers.

For comparison, CoreWeave posted revenue of roughly $2.58 billion. The company will likely see a substantial sequential quarterly sales increase, but SpaceX's neocloud business is likely generating substantially more revenue.

Extremely high demand means neocloud providers currently enjoy very strong pricing power, but that doesn't mean the space is immune to competitive dynamics. As the emerging powerhouse in the neocloud space, SpaceX has strong positioning that could eventually pressure CoreWeave. SpaceX also has much more solid financial footing, potentially giving it the ability to explore pricing options that would prove seriously problematic for CoreWeave.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$147.49+$2.74 (+1.89%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

SpaceX's rise could make it harder for CoreWeave to secure the level of access to next-generation processors it wants from Nvidia. On the one hand, Nvidia's substantial stake in CoreWeave suggests that the neocloud specialist will remain a preferred customer. On the other hand, Nvidia actually holds a substantially larger position in SpaceX.

That doesn't necessarily mean Nvidia would deprioritize CoreWeave or divest its stock, but the graphics processing unit (GPU) leader also famously isn't wed to its investment positions -- having completely exited holdings in companies including Applied Digital and SoundHound AI in high-profile moves. If Nvidia finds itself weighing the significance of its relationship with CoreWeave against that with SpaceX, it's hard to imagine many scenarios in which the former comes out on top.

SpaceX's rise in the neocloud space doesn't necessarily mean CoreWeave is doomed, but it could create additional stress points that complicate the scaling and GPU lifecycle models used to suggest strong opportunities, despite the business's large debt load.

SpaceX is in talks with cellular infrastructure companies to secure access to at least ​80,000 sites across the United States, Bloomberg ‌News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The agreements would potentially solidify the company's path toward ​building a fourth nationwide wireless carrier.

SpaceX, ​which is buying nationwide low-band spectrum, is in talks ⁠with mobile infrastructure provider Crown Castle (CCI.N), according ​to the report

TD Cowen estimated a nationwide terrestrial ​network would cost more than $80 billion, requiring many years and billions in additional spending

The 80,000 sites would equal half ​the 158,500 purpose-built cell towers operational in the ​US last year, according to the Wireless Infrastructure Association

Crown Castle ‌operates ⁠about 40,000 US cell towers, while American Tower (AMT.N) has about 42,000 US sites; privately held Vertical Bridge owns around 18,000

Crown Castle CEO Christian ​Hillabrant said ​on Wednesday ⁠it was talking to "all parties", when asked about potential leases with SpaceX ​and Amazon (AMZN.O), but declined to discuss ​specific ⁠customers

Crown Castle, American Tower, Vertical Bridge and SpaceX did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for ⁠comment

Shares of ​wireless carriers AT&T (T.N), Verizon (VZ.N) ​and T-Mobile (TMUS.O) fell between 4.2% and 5% in extended trading

SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is moving closer to its next major growth milestone, with an ambitious revenue outlook and a crucial Starship recovery test ahead prompting Bank of America to raise its price target to $275 following a third-quarter beat. 

The bank said management’s growth ambitions are becoming more achievable than previously expected, prompting it to bring forward revenue estimates for the coming years, including as early as 2027. 

Bank of America also drew a comparison with the 19th-century railroad industry, arguing that both businesses are built around dramatically reducing transportation costs. 

SpaceX remains on track to reach $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026, a target established last quarter. 

Management now expects first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion, well above the roughly $22 billion anticipated by analysts. 

The company also forecast annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, bringing forward its previous target of $1 trillion from 2030. 

Compute spending set to accelerate  Capital spending on orbital and terrestrial computing infrastructure is expected to increase faster than analysts had anticipated. 

Bank of America expects capital expenditure to reach $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter, up from $19 billion in the third quarter. 

The bank said SpaceX has sufficient liquidity to fund its investment program for the next few quarters, but expects the company to tap debt markets as spending increases. 

It added that rising value per watt of computing capacity could support rapid payback periods, potentially beginning next year. 

Starship launches offer next catalyst  SpaceX completed 35 launches in the third quarter, while Starship continued to progress towards full reusability and expanded satellite deployment capacity. 

Flight 14 marked Starship’s first revenue-generating mission, demonstrating orbital insertion and deploying 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. 

Flight 15 is expected next month and will target the recovery of both the booster and the spacecraft, a milestone Bank of America considers the program’s next major catalyst. 

Successful execution could pave the way for weekly Starship launches in the first half of 2027, with launch frequency expected to accelerate in the second half. 

Bank of America said progress towards that schedule would reduce execution risks and expand SpaceX’s capacity to deploy Starlink satellites. 

Arcataur Capital Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm purchased 3,396 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $512,000.

A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of SPCX. Syntax Research Inc. acquired a new position in SpaceX in the second quarter valued at $26,000. Atwood & Palmer Inc. purchased a new position in shares of SpaceX during the second quarter worth about $29,000. PayPay Securities Corp purchased a new stake in SpaceX in the second quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Hickory Point Bank & Trust acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the third quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Finally, Maryland Capital Advisors Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the third quarter valued at approximately $30,000.

SpaceX Trading Up 7.8% NASDAQ SPCX opened at $159.31 on Thursday. The firm has a market cap of $2.10 trillion and a PE ratio of -1,770.11. The stock’s 50 day simple moving average is $149.18. SpaceX has a 12-month low of $104.83 and a 12-month high of $225.64. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, a current ratio of 5.12 and a quick ratio of 4.99.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, October 20th. The company reported $0.35 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.10 by $0.25. The business had revenue of $14.57 billion during the quarter. During the same period in the prior year, the company earned ($0.36) earnings per share. SpaceX’s revenue for the quarter was up 161.4% on a year-over-year basis. Equities analysts forecast that SpaceX will post 0.07 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. SpaceX News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: Strong Q3 results: SpaceX reported $14.58 billion in revenue, up 161% year over year, and earnings of $0.35 per share versus the $0.10 consensus estimate. Net income reached approximately $4.4 billion, compared with a loss a year earlier. SpaceX quarterly revenue jumps, beats estimates as AI business surges Positive Sentiment: AI business is scaling rapidly: The Super Intelligence segment generated roughly $7.56 billion in revenue, up more than eightfold, and became SpaceX’s largest revenue contributor. Management said new computing deployments are currently producing payback in less than a year, helping validate the company’s AI infrastructure strategy. Why SpaceX Stock Popped After Earnings Positive Sentiment: Upbeat outlook and analyst support: SpaceX guided to $33 billion-$37 billion in first-quarter 2027 revenue, while its backlog reached about $63 billion. JPMorgan raised its price target to $500, and other firms including Wells Fargo, TD Cowen and Needham also increased targets or reiterated bullish ratings. Top Analysts Boost Price Targets After Q3 Beat Positive Sentiment: Merger speculation added momentum: Elon Musk called a Tesla-SpaceX merger a good idea, and both companies formed independent committees to examine a transaction. A combination could create synergies across AI, vehicles, robotics, connectivity and data. However, no deal is certain and shareholder approval would be required. SpaceX and Tesla boards form special committees to review merger Neutral Sentiment: Starlink remains an important financial base: Connectivity revenue rose 69% to approximately $5.25 billion, with 13.6 million consumer subscribers and strong enterprise and government growth. Investors are watching whether subscriber expansion and direct-to-device plans can support the AI buildout. Negative Sentiment: Capital intensity remains the key risk: SpaceX spent about $19.6 billion on capital expenditures in the quarter and expects $35 billion-$40 billion in fourth-quarter spending. Analysts have warned that continued AI expansion could require substantial borrowing and create execution, power-availability and cash-flow risks. SpaceX Bulls Get Louder After Q3 Earnings Print Negative Sentiment: Potential supply and governance overhangs: Upcoming insider share unlocks could increase selling pressure, while concerns about Starlink’s geopolitical exposure and the uncertain terms of any Tesla merger remain risks to valuation. Insiders Place Their Bets In other SpaceX news, COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares of the stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 22nd. The stock was sold at an average price of $153.57, for a total value of $52,547,046.90. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief operating officer owned 2,472,035 shares in the company, valued at approximately $379,630,414.95. This represents a 12.16% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of equities analysts have recently commented on the stock. Phillip Securities raised shares of SpaceX to a “strong sell” rating and set a $75.00 target price on the stock in a report on Friday, July 31st. UBS Group reaffirmed an “overweight” rating and issued a $300.00 target price on shares of SpaceX in a report on Wednesday. Pivotal Research set a $260.00 target price on shares of SpaceX in a report on Wednesday. Wedbush assumed coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research note on Tuesday, June 30th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $190.00 target price for the company. Finally, HSBC reissued a “hold” rating on shares of SpaceX in a report on Wednesday. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirty have assigned a Buy rating, nine have assigned a Hold rating and four have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $243.08.

Check Out Our Latest Report on SpaceX

SpaceX Company Profile (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., commonly known as SpaceX, is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles and spacecraft designed to reduce the cost of access to space and support commercial, government and scientific missions.

SpaceX’s principal products and services include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starlink satellite communications network. Falcon rockets are used to launch satellites, cargo and crew, while Dragon spacecraft support transportation to and from low Earth orbit.

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Although the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution garners most of the credit for sending Wall Street's major stock indexes to new heights, don't overlook initial public offering (IPO) euphoria as a stock market catalyst in 2026.

A little over four months ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.80%), better known as SpaceX, rewrote Wall Street's record books. SpaceX went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising $85.7 trillion from its IPO, including the underwriters' overallotment. This nearly tripled Saudi Aramco's $29.4 trillion IPO cash raise.

Image source: Getty Images.

But not all of SpaceX's history-making moments are worth celebrating. Today, Oct. 22, Musk's AI and space infrastructure goliath will make dubious history, with retail investors set to pay the price.

There wasn't much about the SpaceX IPO process that followed historic norms, including the company's insider lockup period. An insider is a high-ranking executive, board member, or early investor who may possess non-public information.

Usually, companies going public employ a 180-calendar-day lockup period that prevents insiders from selling their shares. This is done to ensure that insiders don't take advantage of retail investor euphoria shortly after a company debuts.

In SpaceX's May 2026 prospectus, the company outlined a staggered and accelerated share-unlock period for its early-release-eligible insiders. In simpler terms, Elon Musk wouldn't be able to sell his shares for 366 calendar days after SpaceX's IPO, but most of the company's other insiders would be given several opportunities to sell some of their shares before the traditional 180-calendar-day mark.

Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such thing as passive). $SPCX

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026
SpaceX's share-unlock events fall into two categories, of which the first is earnings-based events. On Aug. 6, two trading days after SpaceX reported its second-quarter operating results, roughly 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale by select insiders.

Today, Oct. 22, marks the second trading day after Space Exploration Technologies' third-quarter report and, therefore, the release of another 911.5 million shares by insiders. This could provide up to $133 billion in selling pressure.

In addition to earnings-based events, approximately 319 million shares become newly eligible for sale on calendar days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135, and 180. Given that the 135th calendar day lands on a weekend, this coming Monday, Oct. 26, will mark the release of another 319 million shares.

Image source: Getty Images.

We're witnessing the greatest wealth transfer in Wall Street's historyThis staggered and accelerated share lockup period for early-release-eligible insiders poses a significant problem for SpaceX's retail investors.

When the company went public, it sold approximately 555.6 million shares, or less than 5% of its outstanding shares (OS). Most companies going public sell 10% or more of their OS.

SpaceX gaining fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 with its historically low float provided quite the boost to the company's share price for a few weeks after its debut. But with each new share-unlock event, SpaceX's float is rapidly climbing and threatening to weigh on its shares.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$159.31+$11.52 (+7.80%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26

These ongoing share lockups also allow eligible insiders their first opportunity in years, if not a decade, to cash in their chips. What we're witnessing is one of the greatest wealth transfers in the history of Wall Street, from retail investors to SpaceX's insiders.

This unique approach rewards SpaceX's early investors and can punish retail investors.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -0.97%) sank to a 52-week low of $39.02 on Oct. 20, just 12 days after SpaceX (SPCX +7.00%) agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio for $8 billion. Let's see why that announcement torpedoed AST's stock -- and why investors might be overreacting to the news.

Why did SpaceX's move crush AST's stock?
AST SpaceMobile develops low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites for direct-to-cell connections. Its top customers include AT&T (T -5.64%) and Verizon (VZ -2.03%), and its satellites expand their cellular networks to remote areas that their terrestrial towers can't reach.

Image source: Getty Images.

AST has launched 13 of its BlueBird satellites so far, but it can't deliver stable cellular connections and generate recurring commercial revenue until it expands that constellation to at least 45 satellites. It expects to reach that target by early 2027, and gradually expand its constellation to 248 satellites over the long term. In addition to AT&T and Verizon, AST is working with dozens of other carriers to reach over 3 billion wireless subscribers worldwide.

In the past, AST and its clients didn't directly compete against SpaceX, which provided first-party satellite internet and broadband services through Starlink. But satellite signals can't penetrate walls and windows very easily, so Starlink relies on mid-band spectrum partners like T-Mobile (TMUS -2.78%) to reach those indoor dead zones.

By purchasing Grain's 800 MHz spectrum -- which previously belonged to T-Mobile -- and combining it with a constellation of over 10,000 active satellites (which are smaller than AST's satellite arrays), Starlink can evolve into a fully independent wireless carrier. That could spell trouble for AT&T and Verizon's slower-moving plans with AST SpaceMobile.

$40.73-$0.40 (-0.97%)

NASDAQ · As of 3:03 PM ET 10/21/26

Why was that sell-off an overreaction?
It made sense for AT&T and Verizon to get crushed by the news, but AST's decline is less rational. If AT&T, Verizon, and other carriers want to counter Starlink's latest move, they'll need to ramp up their spending on AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites. They could also increase their investments in the company to accelerate those efforts.

Moreover, SpaceX isn't positioning Starlink as a competitor to AST. Instead, it will likely drive more carriers to partner with AST to expand their own satellite networks.

Therefore, I think AST's pullback was mainly due to overheated valuations rather than an existential threat to its business. Even after its recent decline, it still trades at 74 times this year's sales and 21 times next year's sales.

Analysts still expect AST's revenue to surge from $168 million in 2026 to $1.73 billion in 2028. If you believe it can hit those targets as it expands its constellation and gains new partners, it might be smarter to accumulate this volatile stock rather than sell the news.

Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends T-Mobile US and Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have gobbled up shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.94%) since it went public on June 12, 2026. But while major ETFs like the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF and the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF have barely increased their holdings since June, the Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX -0.29%) has consistently added shares every month.

In fact, SpaceX is now the seventh-largest holding in the Vanguard Communication Services ETF. As of Sept. 30, the ETF now holds 1,209,387 SpaceX shares, up from 1,170,398 shares as of Aug. 31, 842,835 shares as of July 31, and 632,077 shares as of June 30.

Here's why investors can expect the Vanguard Communication Services ETF to continue buying SpaceX shares, and why the ETF remains a top buy now.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's Float isn't anywhere close to 13.18 billion shares
Despite having a $1.93 trillion market cap, SpaceX is still not a top holding in many growth-focused and general market ETFs because the percentage of shares available for trading on the Nasdaq exchange (called the float) is still a relatively small percentage of SpaceX's total share count. SpaceX sold 639 million shares during its June initial public offering. It has since unlocked about 2.3 billion shares in total. But that's still just 17.5% of SpaceX's outstanding share count of 13.18 billion.

As more SpaceX shares become unlocked, SpaceX's float will increase, and so will its float-adjusted weighting in the Nasdaq-100 index, which is the 100 largest non-financial stocks by market cap in the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.99%). In turn, ETFs benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 or that use float-adjusted weighting systems will increase their SpaceX holdings.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$162.49+$14.70 (+9.94%)

NASDAQ · As of 12:32 PM ET 10/21/26

SpaceX is one of the three largest communication stocks
Among ETFs buying SpaceX stock, the Vanguard Communication Services ETF will likely remain one of the most aggressive, as it is a sector-based fund. Meaning that it only invests in communication stocks, which includes Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (GOOGL -2.17%) and Meta Platforms (META +2.42%) but excludes mega cap giants like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon that you'd find in other growth-focused ETFs and general market ETFs.

Because Vanguard classifies SpaceX as a communications stock, the Vanguard Communication Services ETF is the only Vanguard sector ETF that will buy SpaceX. And because SpaceX's market cap is so large, it would become a top-three holding in the ETF if it were weighted by market cap rather than float-adjusted. This dynamic is why SpaceX has ascended to the seventh-largest holding in the Vanguard Communication Services ETF in a matter of months.

Alphabet and Meta Platforms are 47% of the Vanguard Communication Services ETF
The Vanguard Communication Services ETF is a great buy for investors looking to build a portfolio around Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and SpaceX. Alphabet and Meta Platforms currently make up a whopping 47% of the fund.

Adding the full weight of SpaceX's market cap to the mix will make the ETF even more top-heavy and growth-oriented. But the ETF will likely still have a reasonable valuation given that Alphabet and Meta Platforms feature forward P/E ratios of 25.9 and 23.4, respectively. What's more, the communications sector has significant weightings in value-focused industries like telecommunications and legacy media. These qualities make the Vanguard Communication Services ETF uniquely positioned to absorb the high-risk, high-reward nature of making SpaceX a top holding.

Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Silný růst tržeb a návrat k miliardovému zisku potvrzují, že SpaceX patří mezi hlavní příjemce investičního boomu kolem satelitních služeb a umělé inteligence. Výsledky navíc doprovodila nová vlna spekulací o možném propojení s Teslou poté, co Elon Musk označil případné spojení obou firem za „dobrý nápad“.

Šéf americké společnosti SpaceX Elon Musk označil za dobrý nápad možnost spojení firmy s výrobcem elektromobilů Tesla. Učinil tak krátce poté, co SpaceX oznámila, že po více než roce ztrát ve třetím čtvrtletí zejména díky příjmům ze satelitního systému Starlink a počítačových technologií dosáhla zisk 4,4 miliardy dolarů (95 miliard Kč). Analytici přitom očekávali zisk 1,57 miliardy, napsala agentura Reuters. Před rokem SpaceX zaznamenala ztrátu 1,1 miliardy dolarů.

"Myslím, že by to byl dobrý nápad, ale je to skutečně na zvláštních výborech obou společností," prohlásil zakladatel obou firem, který se po červnovém vstupu SpaceX na burzu stal prvním dolarovým bilionářem na světě. Podle agentury Reuters nyní poprvé veřejně hovořil o jejich možném spojení, o němž se nedávno začalo spekulovat. Musk myšlenku hájil s tím, že obě firmy již mají spoustu společných projektů, nic však není jistého, dodal.

Akcie firmy po jeho prohlášení vzrostly v obchodování po úterním uzavření trhů o 4,9 procenta, píše Reuters.

SpaceX letos nasměrovala největší investice do umělé inteligence včetně společnosti xAI, chatbota Grok či rychle se rozšiřujících datových center. Zejména díky příjmům právě z AI a ze Starlinku se dokázala vrátit po ztrátovém období k ziskům. Její tržby ve čtvrtletí od července do září meziročně vzrostly o 161 procent na 14,6 miliardy dolarů.

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It's been a busy three months for SpaceX.

The company delivered four astronauts to the International Space Station in record time, expanded its mobile network spectrum, is reportedly eyeing a $40 billion debt deal to buy Nvidia chips, and CEO Elon Musk said he plans to give shares to every kid in America next year. 

Traders think all that means more gains for the stock after it reports earnings after the bell Tuesday. 

Options market-makers are pricing about a 6% swing for SpaceX after the event, according to Cboe LiveVol data. That's less than half the 13% it erased after its inaugural report in August, a selloff that turned out to be the low for the shares, which rallied 60% the following two months before reversing before dropping as much as 19% the past two weeks. 

While there are about as many open call contracts as puts on the stock, daily trading volume has leaned toward calls the past week, Barchart data shows.

Among the 1.1 million contracts traded Monday – 20% higher volume than the 30-day average – 665,000 were calls, with more bought than sold, according to Cboe LiveVol. Traders also bought more calls than puts, and sold more puts than they bought, the data show, decidedly bullish flow as the space giant heads into its second earnings.

The most popular call contract for Friday expiry was the 170-strike, which needs about a 14% rally, according to SpotGamma data. There was also notable buying in the 190-strike call for month-end, a 40-cent contract that needs SpaceX to rally 29% to break even. 

SpaceX, YTD

For that to happen, SpaceX will have to rally through two more share lockup periods: a scheduled release two days after earnings, as well as another on October 26 that together will amount to over 1.6 billion eligible shares for sale. So far that hasn't been a problem for the stock, as releases on Sep. 9, 10, and 24 had no discernible effect on the share price.

Implied volatility is much lower in SpaceX going into this report compared to last quarter, as reflected in the implied move. SpaceX traded with an IV of 62 on Monday, compared to above 110 before releasing second-quarter earnings, according to ThinkOrSwim.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.32%) stock has made a major comeback after it fell earlier this year. The newly public company is up 35% from its August low as investor confidence grows. Is now the right time to buy?

Why SpaceX stock is soaring SpaceX has been popular from the get-go. Actually, it gained popularity way before it went public, and fans found ways to invest in it even while it was private. The bigger question is why it fell in the first place. Even though it's up 35% since August, it's down almost 10% since its first-day closing price.

Image source: Getty Images.

It originally fell due to its high valuation, early investors pocketing quick gains, and general volatility following the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever. However, it started climbing back up after a winning earnings report for the second quarter. Total revenue increased 92% year over year, and net loss was cut almost in half.

There were also plenty of positive business updates. In the Starlink business, subscriptions doubled from last year to 12 million, and it has more than 11,000 satellites in orbit, up from 6,750 in February. The company plans to have 100,000 satellites covering every spot on Earth and to launch 1 million Starmind AI satellites, which it calls the miniature data centers it's developing for deployment in orbit.

It made major strides in the artificial intelligence (AI) business, xAI, where it sees its biggest opportunities. Revenue increased 247% year over year, and it signed important multiyear contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic.

Is now the time to buy? Let's be clear that it's not exactly cheap at the current price. Although its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was as high as 116 at some points, it now trades at a multiple of 68. That's quite a difference, but it's still much higher than the average S&P 500 ratio of 3.8 and even higher than that of high-growth tech companies like Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Broadcom. Investors should stop and think about what they're paying that premium for.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$147.96+$1.93 (+1.32%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/19/26

There is still a major upcoming lockup period that's ending in December, and SpaceX hasn't turned a profit yet. There are still reasons the price could go down in the short run, as well as other risks.

I don't mean to put a damper on SpaceX, which many investors are eager to get a part of. However, the price doesn't justify the risk right now.

In my opinion, it's not a great time to buy SpaceX stock. However, given its exciting business, I'd consider it at a different time when the price-to-value equation makes more sense.

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Broadcom, Micron Technology, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.32%) became the largest IPO on record in June. The stock has been highly volatile since, reaching highs of about $225.64 and lows of $104.83. How will the stock perform through the end of the year? That's hard to say. But one particular upcoming catalyst might drag down the share price. Here's what investors need to know.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The largest single-event stock lockup expiry to dateFirst, a little bit of background. When companies first go public, there are legal restrictions on when insiders can sell their shares. The period before that is called the lockup period. Many corporations first entering public equity markets opt for a set period -- often 180 days -- after which most or all company insiders are free to sell their shares.

SpaceX chose a staggered lockup schedule, meaning various blocks of shares would become eligible for sale over a little more than a year from the IPO date. Lockup expiry dates can present challenges to newly public companies. If insiders sell the corporation's shares in large quantities as soon as they are legally permitted, it could put downward pressure on the stock. SpaceX has faced this challenge on six occasions already. Here's how it has fared so far.

Expiry Date Number of New Shares Available Stock ReactionAug. 6912 millionRose 6% Aug. 20319 millionFell 4%Sept. 9319 millionFell 3.9%Sept. 1059 millionRose 0.4%Sept. 24328 millionFell 0.2%Oct. 9328 millionRose 1%Overall, SpaceX has performed fairly well through its various lockup expiry dates so far. The stock has climbed about 27% since Aug. 6. However, the company is racing toward its largest single-event stock lockup expiry date yet.

Two full trading days after the company reports its third-quarter earnings (SpaceX’s third-quarter update is scheduled for Oct. 20), 1.3 billion new shares will become eligible for sale (328 million new shares will also unlock on Oct. 24).

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$147.96+$1.93 (+1.32%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/19/26

What should investors do?Will SpaceX stock decline significantly once these new shares become available? It's hard to say. On the one hand, it is the single biggest such event in terms of the number of new shares eligible for sale. But relative to the number of shares already on the market, that's a different story.

On Oct. 6, the number of SpaceX shares eligible for sale more than doubled. It won't increase by that much after the third-quarter update. Whether or not SpaceX stock performs well over the next few weeks will also depend heavily on the company's third-quarter results. SpaceX's revenue grew at a good clip in the second quarter, and its net loss decreased significantly.

The market will be expecting that momentum to continue, and there is a chance that particularly strong results could overshadow the massive lockup expiry event. With that said, should long-term investors purchase SpaceX's shares at current levels? Note that the company's stock price has declined slightly from its $150 opening price, despite strong second-quarter results and meaningful progress on its all-important next-gen rocket, Starship, which recently flew into orbit for the first time in another successful flight test.

SpaceX has also signed additional artificial intelligence compute deals and taken steps that bring it closer to significantly expanding its connectivity business and challenging major mobile carriers, although it still has plenty of work to do on that front.

Why, then, hasn't the stock performed well since its IPO? Probably partly because of valuation concerns. At 200x forward earnings, the market is pricing in significant success from some of SpaceX's ambitions, and the company needs to exceed expectations to hope to sustain above-average returns, with little room for error. That's why I'd stay away from the space company right now.

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Elon Musk announced on X that he intends to give every child in America a SpaceX share. Finn Gomez/Getty Images Elon Musk says he'll give every child in the US a piece of his space company, a gift worth around $10.5 billion today.

"Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America," Musk wrote in an early Monday post on X. "This will be the first of many."

There are roughly 72 million children in the US based on 2025 census data, and SpaceX stock closed at $146 on Friday. If Musk donated 72 million shares today they would be worth around $10.5 billion.

Musk didn't provide any further details on how the giveaway would work, such as eligibility criteria or specific timing, or whether the shares will be transferred to Trump Accounts.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO is the world's richest person with an estimated $904 billion net worth as of Friday's close, per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Elon Musk's $1 million giveaways

SpaceX — the company behind Falcon rockets, Starship launch vehicles, Starlink satellites, AI chatbot Grok, and X — went public this summer and has about a $2 trillion market capitalization.

Excluding restricted shares and options, Musk owns 4.77 billion SpaceX shares for about a 36% stake, worth just under $700 billion at Friday's close. The rest of his fortune largely comprises his stakes in his other companies, including Tesla, Neuralink, and The Boring Company.

Donating 72 million shares would reduce Musk's number of SpaceX shares by 1.5%. If, as indicated in his X post, he follows that up with further giveaways, his stake could shrink significantly.

Musk's pledge is part of a broader trend of gifting shares to America's children, aimed at ensuring they all own a piece of the stock market and reap its gains over time, and benefit from a lifetime of compounding wealth.

The Trump administration launched Trump Accounts — tax-advantaged investment accounts — for eligible children this summer, with those born between 2025 and 2028 receiving a $1,000 federal seed deposit. Numerous companies have agreed to contribute to them as well.

Michael and Susan Dell contributed $250 to 25 million American children's Trump Accounts earlier this month, a gift totaling $6.25 billion that was allocated first to those in the lowest-income ZIP codes.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and her husband pledged in July to give SpaceX shares to more than 2 million children.

Correction: October 19, 2026 — An earlier version of this story incorrectly described SpaceX as a private company. It went public in June 2026.

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Georgia is a Business News Fellow at Business Insider's London office.Before joining Business Insider, she worked at Japan's largest newspaper, The Yomiuri Shimbun, and interned at the Financial Times. She is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with a degree in Philosophy from the University of Birmingham.

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Theron Mohamed is a London-based correspondent on the International team at Business Insider. His coverage spans finance, investing, wealth, markets, and the economy.Theron joined BI in 2019 as a reporter at Markets Insider and rose to the rank of correspondent before moving to the Trending team then the broader International team. He previously covered tech, media, and telecom stocks for Investors Chronicle magazine and had a brief stint on the Financial Times' Data team. He interned at the Wall Street Journal in New York where he primarily wrote for Heard on the Street.Theron has freelanced for The Independent, The Telegraph, WIRED, and several smaller publications. He holds an undergraduate degree in geography from the London School of Economics, and a master's degree in journalism from Columbia University.Theron often covers Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and other elite investors. He also writes about the world's wealthiest people and shares financial advice from all manner of rich and successful people.Email Theron at [email protected] and follow him on X @theron_mohamed.

Elon Musk Wealth Stocks More Investing Billionaires

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.74%), otherwise known as SpaceX, was the hottest initial public offering (IPO) of the year, if not the century. However, despite the massive demand for shares at IPO and the initial price jump, SpaceX stock has been a laggard. It trades at $148 today, about 10% higher than the IPO price of $135 and below the first-day opening price of $150. It's down almost 8% since the first-day closing price, when investors who didn't get shares at IPO had the chance to buy shares. However, there are plenty of people who are bullish on this stock. The median Wall Street analyst target price is $217, a 46% increase from today.

Most investors should buy stocks thinking at least a few years out. Here's where SpaceX stock might be in 2030.

Growing fast and coming closer to profits SpaceX's growth rates weren't particularly impressive leading up to its IPO, but they were much higher in the second quarter, SpaceX's first as a public company. Total revenue increased 92% year over year driven by all of its segments, but particularly xAI, its artificial intelligence (AI) business. Here's the breakdown, including profits and losses:

SegmentSales growthProfit/lossSpaceX29% ($542 million)

Starlink66%$1.7 billionxAI247%($1.3 billion) Data source: SpaceX quarterly reports. Growth is year over year.

xAI is both its fastest-growing business and its biggest loser. However, the total loss was cut by nearly half, from $1 billion last year to $541 million this year, boding well for a profit on the horizon.

Management sees its biggest opportunities in AI as well, even though it's the rocket-launching and Starlink businesses that set it apart from other AI companies. xAI operates the Grok AI model, is building data centers, and is beefing up the business with its recent acquisition of Cursor. It also recently announced several major deals for data center rentals with Alphabet, which will pay $920 million monthly, and Anthropic, which will pay $1.25 billion monthly through 2029. Management sees a $26.5 trillion long-term addressable market for AI.

Image source: Getty Images.

If SpaceX continues to grow at current rates, the stock should be much higher in 2030. Wall Street expects sales to increase 156% in 2027, which is an accelerated pace.

If SpaceX grows at a 100% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030, that might justify its premium valuation of 68 times trailing-12-month sales. If it maintained that ratio, sales would be $662 billion, which is hard to imagine over the next five years. It's likely that the rate is going to slow down, and if it does, the price-to-sales multiple would as well. So let's go through a reasonable scenario. Suppose SpaceX grows at a CAGR of 75% over the next five years. That would bring sales to about $340 billion. Imagine the price-to-sales ratio at about two-thirds what it is now, so let's say about 46. That would mean a market cap of $15 trillion, which seems highly unlikely.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$146.03-$2.59 (-1.74%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

You'd have to imagine that either the CAGR or multiple or both will slow down. Let's imagine a CAGR of 50% and a price-to-sales ratio of 34, or half today's multiple. That would be $157 billion in revenue, and the market cap would be $5.5 trillion, a 177% increase from today's figure. If you'd invest $5,000 today, according to this formula, you'd have $13,850.

These are still optimistic numbers because there are many risks for the business, especially with xAI. There's a real chance that AI spend will slow down, impacting suppliers like xAI, and send SpaceX stock down.

There's certainly a chance the stock does reward investors coming up, as in the above scenario, but I'm not ready to say it's time to buy. This isn't the kind of risk I would want to take with my money, and that's how I'd recommend any investor think about the stock.

SpaceX (SPCX -1.74%) agreed on Oct. 8 to buy Grain Management's nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz spectrum. The rocket and satellite company says the airwaves will help its Starlink Mobile service reach phones indoors. SpaceX didn't disclose terms, but The Wall Street Journal put the price at around $8 billion in cash.

Investors in the big wireless carriers took the news hard. Shares of T-Mobile US, Verizon, and AT&T each dropped over 10% the next day.

SpaceX stock, though, hardly moved on the news, and it's dipped since. Shares trade near $146 as I write. That puts them about 31% under the record $211.39 close on June 16 and only about 8% over the $135 price set in SpaceX's IPO.

So, does SpaceX's move into the carriers' business make the stock a buy?

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX is paying to reach phones indoorsThe deal covers up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band. SpaceX said it addresses one of the main remaining technical gaps for Starlink Mobile, as a low-band signal like this can go through walls. And the company said most existing phones already support the band.

That same week, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cleared SpaceX to launch 15,000 next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites. The Grain purchase itself still needs FCC approval.

Grain just recently bought the airwaves from T-Mobile, in a deal that closed in August, paying $2.9 billion in cash and its own 600 MHz licenses. This makes a direct comparison hard, but the reported price is well over the cash Grain paid.

The purchase comes on top of a bigger one, too. SpaceX is buying 65 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar for around $19.6 billion, a deal it expects to close at the end of November 2027.

Management's thinking on low-band spectrum also looks to have changed fast.

"You don't have to necessarily spend many billions of dollars in low-band spectrum all upfront before you deploy your system," President Gwynne Shotwell said in early August, on SpaceX's call to go over second-quarter results.

Around two months later, SpaceX reportedly agreed to spend about $8 billion on low-band spectrum. I'd say this suggests the company wants its carrier service in place earlier, even at a higher cost.

Starlink is where SpaceX makes moneyShowing why SpaceX keeps investing here, revenue in its connectivity segment (which houses Starlink) rose 66% year over year to $4.3 billion in the second quarter. This was a sharp acceleration from 32% year-over-year growth in the first quarter, when the segment took in $3.3 billion. Operating income for the segment climbed 79% year over year to $1.7 billion.

Of course, that profit's carrying the rest of the company. Connectivity was the only one of SpaceX's three segments to turn an operating profit, while its space and artificial intelligence segments each lost money.

Starlink Mobile is tougher to size. SpaceX doesn't break out its revenue, which is part of enterprise and government sales, and it earns that revenue from revenue-sharing deals with partner carriers like T-Mobile. Owning airwaves could let SpaceX sell service directly. But it could also put SpaceX up against the companies it splits revenue with now.

Shotwell also said on the August call that SpaceX would start flying its next-generation mobile satellites next year and begin service at the end of next year.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$146.03-$2.59 (-1.74%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

Does $8 billion move a $2 trillion stock?Not by itself. At today's price, SpaceX is worth around $2 trillion, and the reported $8 billion is under 1% of that. And the company ended June with $100 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.

The bigger concern for shareholders is the stock's valuation. SpaceX's revenue for the four quarters through June was around $23 billion, leaving the stock at more than 80 times sales. And the company lost $4.8 billion in the first half of 2026. SpaceX posts its third-quarter results after market close on Oct. 20.

Yes, selling phone service directly might become a meaningful new revenue source for Starlink over time. But this revenue is probably more than a year away, and it comes with the cost of building out a network.

In the end, the Grain deal makes Starlink Mobile a more serious rival to the carriers, and their share prices reflected that. For SpaceX shareholders, though, it's a small and far-off addition to a company valued at over 80 times sales. Even after a 31% fall from its peak, the stock looks too pricey to me.

Technology consultant Gartner recently predicted that 80% of neocloud companies will no longer exist by 2030. That assessment has sent the stocks in the segment into a tailspin and could actually be the catalyst for the companies to collapse. Neocloud companies are spending a huge amount of money on AI infrastructure, most of which is funded by debt. If there is a fear that the sector could collapse because of Gartner's forecast, affordable funding could dry up, causing the industry to implode.

If this were to happen, my prediction is that SpaceX (SPCX -1.74%) would be the biggest winner. Here's why.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$146.03-$2.59 (-1.74%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

The ultimate neocloud company
SpaceX is arguably a neocloud company itself. In May, it received a large commitment from Anthropic, which agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month through May 2009 for access to more than 300 megawatts of computing power coming from roughly 325,000 Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). That deal was worth about $45 billion, although Reuters reported in late September that the deal had been upped to $84.5 billion.

Those aren't the only commitments that SpaceX has grabbed this year. Alphabet will pay it $920 million a month for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029. SpaceX also announced another $1.11 billion-a-month hosting deal from an unnamed party beginning in December.

SpaceX has been aggressively building out its AI infrastructure for both its own use and to rent out to customers. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the company was on track to add 440,000 GPUs by the end of November, with the hope of an additional 220,000 units by the end of the year. It is also working with Apollo Capital Management and several banks to secure funding to buy $40 billion worth of GPUs from Nvidia.

This is where SpaceX has a huge advantage compared to other neoclouds. The company has a much lower cost of capital compared to others in the sector. It is investment-grade, and the GPUs will be used as collateral, so it will be able to finance its spending at a much lower interest rate. The company's high stock price and valuation are also an advantage, giving it potent currency to help fund its build-out.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

This dynamic should also make SpaceX a preferred choice among customers and banks, who may become wary of having exposure to a leveraged neocloud start-up. This should help SpaceX benefit from a flight to quality.

If neoclouds get largely wiped out, SpaceX would also likely be one of the first in line to scoop up some of these assets at a huge discount. Cloud computing companies and other hyperscalers have been increasingly turning to their own custom AI chip roadmaps, making it harder for them to absorb off-the-shelf GPU infrastructure seamlessly. SpaceX, meanwhile, has concentrated on Nvidia's GPUs, and its strong relationship with the chipmaker could give it an edge in acquiring any distressed computing assets.

In any distressed sale, Nvidia, given its backstop arrangements with neoclouds, will have a say in who gets to assume hardware leases or buy out collateral. Given its relationship with SpaceX and its stake in the stock, Nvidia would have an incentive to get these distressed GPU clusters into the hands of SpaceX. Meanwhile, the most valuable assets to acquire from a neocloud aren't its chips, but its power grid access and site permits.

If high debt and funding issues trigger a wave of neocloud bankruptcies, as predicted by Gartner, SpaceX won't just survive the fallout; it will be the primary beneficiary. It will be able to buy up cheap hardware, power access, and data center real estate to build the largest AI cloud network on Earth before tackling data centers in space. That makes the AI stock an intriguing buy on this recent sell-off.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) will post third-quarter financial results next Tuesday, Oct. 20, after the closing bell. The company will host an audio-only webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET the same day to discuss the report. 

Also on Friday, Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX and raised his price target to $275 from $230. The new target suggests 85% upside from Thursday’s close.

Maral argues SpaceX upcoming earnings report will be judged on bigger questions than quarter-over-quarter performance.

In a preview note, he outlined five debates he expects investors to weigh heading into the print. He also expects a sizable revenue increase, with the AI segment doing most of the heavy lifting.

1. The $100 Billion Run RateRevenue is the headline debate. Maral sees SpaceX as well-positioned to exit 2026 with annualized revenue above $100 billion. His estimate sits near $104 billion.

Two drivers stand behind the forecast. Strategic compute deals account for much of the expected growth, while internal revenue growth in the AI and connectivity businesses adds to the total. New agreements should help push the company past the $100 billion mark, according to the note.

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2. Compute CapacityEvercore ISI’s capacity forecast runs ahead of the Street. The firm expects SpaceX to reach roughly 2.3 gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of 2026, above consensus expectations, and views the target as achievable.

More capacity gives the company room to sign additional compute deals. Maral said the expanded footprint could strengthen SpaceX’s market position.

3. 2027 PricingPricing on new 2027 deals is shaping up as a focal point. Maral currently models 2027 pricing at about $30 per watt, a figure he called critical to maintaining revenue streams and limiting downside risk.

The worry is a shift in market conditions. If pricing moves against SpaceX, the company could find itself at a disadvantage on new contracts, which could weigh on the revenue outlook.

4. Capex and FundingSpending is set to climb sharply. Evercore ISI expects capital expenditures to rise to roughly $151 billion in 2027, an increase the firm believes projected EBITDA growth will overshadow.

Even so, Maral stressed the need to manage the capex trajectory carefully. SpaceX faces significant capital requirements, and its ability to meet them will be vital to sustaining its ambitious growth plans, he wrote.

5. The Mobile WildcardWhether SpaceX launches a competitive mobile service remains unresolved. The outcome hinges on regulatory support and improvements to terrestrial capacity, the analyst said.

Some skepticism surrounds the idea. Still, continued growth in the AI segment could give SpaceX the flexibility to pivot toward hybrid connectivity solutions, Maral said.

Catalysts and RisksMaral expects new compute deal announcements around the third-quarter report, which he views as favorable for sustained revenue growth. CEO Elon Musk’s comments about ambitious revenue targets have also boosted investor optimism.

Concerns remain. The market continues to worry about execution risk, along with a broader narrative around potential saturation in space and AI. Maral said execution still warrants careful scrutiny.

SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was down 1.81% at $145.93 at the time of publication Friday, according to Benzinga Pro market data.

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Photo: Shutterstock

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Harvard's endowment just posted its best return in years, and the single stock sitting at the center of its public portfolio tells you something unexpected about how the world's richest university is betting on the next decade.

Harvard’s endowment reached a record $68 billion at the close of its fiscal year on June 30, 2026. It reached that level with a 27.1% return, well above the ~18.9% median for large endowments.

The fund grew by $11 billion from a year earlier. Its biggest single public stock holding is SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction), the rocket, Starlink and AI company that went public in June 2026.

SpaceX shares moved lower despite the Harvard connection. The stock fell 2.33% on October 15, 2026, to close at $148.62, which put the company’s market value at $2.02 trillion.

That close is 7.66% below the first daily close on June 12, 2026, and far under the $225.64 52-week high, so many early public buyers are sitting on losses. You have to decide whether Harvard’s support should change how you see the stock, because a concentrated position looks very different for an institution that never withdraws.

What Harvard Actually Disclosed Harvard Management Company, the private firm that runs the endowment, disclosed a SpaceX stake worth $2.2 billion in August 2026. That came to more than half of its $4.3 billion U.S. equities portfolio at the time.

Harvard also opened a position in Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS) worth about $239 million. It sharply increased its stakes in NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM). Together, those moves weight the public book toward space and AI hardware.

Each disclosure shows holdings on a single date, so you can’t see what Harvard owns now, or when and at what price it bought SpaceX. A stake built before the IPO would fit a fund that leans heavily on venture capital, although Harvard has not confirmed one.

Chief executive N.P. “Narv” Narvekar has led the firm for nine years with an 11.4% annualized return. He credited venture capital, public equities and hedge funds for the year.

Why Half a Portfolio in One Stock Means Less at Harvard Putting more than half of a stock portfolio into one name shows real conviction. But that portfolio is a small piece of the endowment, because most of Harvard’s money sits in private equity, hedge funds, and other assets.

A steep SpaceX decline would hurt that piece and leave the overall endowment far less exposed; if you put half of your stock money into SpaceX, the same decline would hit your retirement savings directly.

Harvard can ride very turbulent market swings, unlike most investors. An endowment invests over a very long term and keeps receiving gifts. Donations hit a record $1.5 billion, which brings in fresh cash while holdings rise and fall.

SpaceX has traded as low as $104.83, and it lost 7.44% in the week through October 15, with the latest weakness tied to troubles at CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). If you draw income, a drop like that is harder to sit through.

SpaceX Has to Grow Into a $2 Trillion Price Second-quarter revenue reached $7.81 billion, ahead of the $6.82 billion consensus. Starlink subscribers also doubled to 12.0 million.

SpaceX still posted a net loss of $541 million while spending $18.37 billion on capital projects. Starlink revenue per user also fell from $85 to $66, so the current price assumes years of strong growth that eventually turn into profits.

What Harvard’s Stake Means for Individual SpaceX Investors For most individual investors, Harvard’s stake does little to change SpaceX’s risks at this price. The stock is losing money, trades below its first close, and the Harvard holding is a single picture taken by a fund that can wait decades.

Nvidia, where Harvard sharply increased its stake, has a different financial profile. It reported $96.22 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue, up 105.8%, and guided to $108 billion for the next quarter. Unlike SpaceX, it has no exposure to rockets or Starlink.

Harvard’s next quarterly holdings filing is due by mid-November 2026. It will show whether the stake changed, and investors will also be watching whether SpaceX can climb back above $160.57, its October 8 close, with help from a profitable quarter.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

SpaceX artificial intelligence policy leader Gabriela Castillo Madrid is set to testify before the New York City Council on Friday as part of a legislative investigation into AI safety.

The hearing with the council's tech committee is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET at City Hall with Castillo Madrid appearing by video conference.

Elon Musk's aerospace, defense tech and AI company originally evaded requests and a subpoena from the city council to appear alongside leaders from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta on Oct. 5. SpaceX agreed to testify earlier this week after the council threatened to have its subpoena enforced by a judge.

The council opened its probe following a month of intense debate surrounding the risks posed by advanced AI models, and is aiming to use testimony and information unearthed through the investigation to guide new regulations.

Before Castillo Madrid took a role in government affairs at SpaceX earlier this year, she worked at X, Musk's social media company that's now owned by SpaceX, according to her LinkedIn profile. Prior to that, she spent almost three years at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

In merging SpaceX with xAI in February, Musk combined his AI and social networking business with his rocket launch company, which also owns the Starlink satellite internet service. The merger put SpaceX in control of AI model Grok, which is used by some federal agencies, including the Pentagon.

SpaceX went public in June and is now valued at about $2 trillion. In August, SpaceX completed a $60 billion acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor.

In skipping the earlier NYC Council hearing, SpaceX avoided direct questioning from a member of the U.K. Parliament, Jess Asato, who testified about experiencing AI-enabled online harassment.

Asato is suing xAI in the U.K. after Grok users created and distributed sexualized images of her online without her consent. She's seeking damages, alleging misuse of her private information and breaches of European data protection rules.

According to the BBC, Asato criticized SpaceX for its "arrogance" in not appearing last week.

SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment ahead of the meeting.

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.33%) had a major IPO in June. The stock started hot, reached around $200 per share, then crashed to $110. However, it has settled back to just above $150 per share, which is ironically right where it started trading on its opening day. This tells me that the market has settled into a normalized valuation for the stock, but does that mean it's a good investment?

A $2,000 investment may not sound like much now, but it could grow substantially depending on whether SpaceX works out. But could it help you retire early? Maybe. But it won't be as quickly as you want.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is already a massive business
For a $2,000 investment to help you retire early, it needs to provide substantial returns, perhaps growing to $200,000 over a longer investment time frame, such as 15 to 20 years. The problem with SpaceX is the size at which it went public. Because it's a $2 trillion company, if the stock were to 10x, it would be worth $200 trillion. For reference, the global stock market is estimated to be worth over $150 trillion when all companies are combined.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies$148.62-$3.54 (-2.33%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26

There just aren't enough investment dollars to go around to make SpaceX much larger than it already is, so investors need to shift their mindset.

Instead of thinking of SpaceX as a stock that will deliver huge returns, investors need to determine whether SpaceX can beat the S&P 500 moving forward. The S&P 500 averages about a 10% return each year, and beating this is the baseline an individual investor should aim for. Can SpaceX do that? I think so.

A major clue to SpaceX's growth potential is its revenue growth rate. During Q2, it was an impressive 92%. That well eclipses the 10% threshold established above, but SpaceX also has a ton of growth already baked into this stock price, so this growth rate was necessary to uphold expectations.

We'll have to see how SpaceX does over the next few years, but with its involvement in space exploration, artificial intelligence, and satellite internet, I'm confident it can continue to grow its revenue rapidly. These are major growth industries to be in, giving SpaceX a great growth edge.

The biggest holdup with SpaceX stock right now is its profitability. Currently, it isn't profitable, and it may not be for some time. Investors must grapple with this, as it does shift confidence in the investment. But if SpaceX can continue growing its revenue at an above-average pace and become profitable, I don't doubt that SpaceX will beat the market and accelerate your path to retiring, really. However, it may not happen as quickly as you would hope.