Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

A big reason investors are bullish on the long-term trajectory of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +5.78%), better known as just SpaceX, is due to its visionary CEO, Elon Musk. Without Musk, I don't believe the stock would have been able to fetch a valuation anywhere near $2 trillion. But with his ability to grow businesses and sky-high expectations for future growth, growth investors are drawn to his companies.

But there have also been times when Musk's role as CEO hasn't been all that great for shareholders. A year ago, when he was working closely with the government, Tesla's stock struggled, largely due to negative press surrounding Musk and questions about his leadership.

Now, Musk is back to working with the U.S. government. Here's why that could be a concerning development for SpaceX investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

Musk appointed to taskforce relating to the future of warfareLast week, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced that Musk will co-lead a project related to studying the future of warfare, called "Project Meridian." It's planned as a 120-day project aimed at “identifying the capabilities required to achieve absolute technological dominance on the next-generation battlefield."

Musk was previously involved with the Department of Government Efficiency last year, which received significant negative press for its aggressive cost-cutting measures. Musk was seen as the figurehead for that initiative, and his company, Tesla, nosedived amid the drama. From Jan. 20, 2025, through April 30, 2025, the stock fell by 34%, while the S&P 500 declined by a more modest 7%. Musk would ultimately leave the position shortly afterward, and Tesla's stock would end up recovering.

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Why SpaceX stock could be more vulnerableMusk, working closely with the U.S. government, could once again create a ripple effect for his companies. SpaceX, however, with a monstrous valuation of $2.2 trillion, could be much more vulnerable to a significant decline. Unlike Tesla, it isn't profitable. Investors are bullish on the stock's long-term future, and thus a fair degree of speculation is inevitable. If there's a repeat of DOGE and plenty of negative press surrounding Musk's latest initiative with the government, that could once again weigh on his companies, with SpaceX potentially being the most vulnerable due to its high valuation.

This is the type of risk that SpaceX investors need to be cognizant of before buying the space stock, since its value depends more on expectations and Musk's management of the company than on its fundamentals, which don't support the stock's incredibly high valuation. Speculation and volatility are an inevitability with SpaceX, and investors who aren't comfortable with that may be better off sitting on the sidelines.

SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares rose 8% on Monday morning to $167.71 after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its 'overweight' rating and $300 price target, saying the stock remains undervalued on a growth-adjusted basis.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) described SpaceX as “cheap and getting cheaper”, arguing that its valuation looks more attractive when expected growth is taken into account. 

The shares also gained momentum after Elon Musk said on Sunday that SpaceX would rename its artificial intelligence (AI) unit from SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI.

SpaceX trades at about 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, compared with roughly 16 times for other mega-cap companies that Morgan Stanley considers AI enablers, making its headline valuation appear expensive.

However, on a growth-adjusted basis, SpaceX trades at about 0.3 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT/Growth, roughly 40% below the 0.5 times median for the comparison group. 

The investment bank said the stock could benefit from upcoming developments, with the next Starship flight expected to provide an important catalyst for investors as the company advances its launch programme. 

Musk confirmed the change in a response on X after a user asked whether the division would adopt the “super intelligence” terminology promoted by US President Donald Trump. 

Reuters reported that Musk did not provide a timeline for the renaming, while the SpaceXAI account had not changed at the time of publication. 

Morgan Stanley’s $300 target implies substantial upside from Monday’s trading level, although Morgan Stanley noted that investor ownership of the stock remains relatively limited.

SpaceX’s valuation case rests increasingly on its broader technology and AI ambitions alongside its established launch and satellite operations, with investors watching Starship and the company’s growth trajectory for further catalysts.

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Every investor has had a thought from time to time that goes something like this: "If I had just bought that one stock early enough, I'd be rich now."

It's a tempting thought experiment to go back and calculate how buying Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, or other companies shortly after their initial public offerings (IPOs) could have changed your portfolio.

And some investors are likely thinking this way about Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.36%) right now. After all, SpaceX has a leading artificial intelligence business, a successful rocket launch business, and a rapidly growing Starlink satellite internet company.

So, is SpaceX the stock that investors will look back on years from now and wonder if they had just put $5,000 toward it, they'd be a millionaire?

I think not, and here's why.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The math doesn't add up SpaceX's share price is about $160 as of this writing. To turn a $5,000 investment into $1 million would require SpaceX's stock to increase by almost 20,000%. That's a nearly impossible feat and highly unlikely considering SpaceX's market cap is $2 trillion already.

Some investors are still optimistic that the company could experience significant share price gains, though. And there are a few legitimate reasons to be optimistic about SpaceX.

For one, the company has a thriving satellite internet business. SpaceX says Starlink has 12 million paid subscribers, with about 3 million of those residing in the U.S. The number of U.S.-based Starlink customers could reach an estimated 15 million in just four years, according to analysts at Oppenheimer.

Starlink accounts for around 60% of SpaceX's top line and is the company's only profitable business, with about $2.6 billion in EBITDA in the second quarter.

An expanding Starlink business could fuel momentum for SpaceX stock over the next several years if the company can continue to expand its user base. Just don't expect out-of-this-world returns for SpaceX stock because of Starlink.

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SpaceX's spending spree is a problem for the stock I think one of the biggest inhibitors to SpaceX's stock gains is the company's accelerating capex.

SpaceX spent $28.5 billion in the first six months of 2026, an increase of 309% from the first half of 2025. The vast majority of that was funneled into the company's artificial intelligence initiatives, including building large data centers.

The AI boom is well underway, and many investors have been pretty patient with all of the spending. But their patience is starting to run out for companies that aren't profitable, which SpaceX isn't.

If the company continues on its current capex path, I doubt SpaceX stock will make significant gains from its current level. There are simply too many other AI stocks to choose from that spend less and still deliver impressive profits for their shareholders.

All of which means that if you're on the fence for where to put $5,000 right now, SpaceX probably isn't your best bet -- and it certainly won't help make you a millionaire.

When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.36%) was preparing to go public, many experts worried that the company's targeted $1.77 trillion valuation was too rich. Most of these experts, however, also believed that the company's Starlink division held great promise.

For example, Jeremy Grantham -- a co-founder of GMO Asset Management and a well-known prognosticator of market bubbles -- warned investors against investing in SpaceX during its IPO.

"In the end, the reality will come out, and this will turn out to be, of course, one of the landmark historical events that I so value in history looking back," Grantham cautioned. "It will be amazing, by the way, if it doesn't collapse, because it will need such massive developments on AI that our entire lives are totally different."

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's stock price has been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride since the IPO, but it remains above its IPO valuation. Grantham predicted possible short-term price appreciation given SpaceX's limited supply of publicly traded shares. "[S]upply and demand being what it is," he said, "it's hard to imagine the price won't go up, and perhaps it will go up a lot."

Grantham was extremely bearish on SpaceX as an investment opportunity. It's perhaps surprising, then, that he was a fan of SpaceX's Starlink division. Here's what he said in a podcast interview this summer:

"Great idea, by the way. Makes money. But this is not Starlink. Maybe I'd be an investor too, if it were Starlink."

Last year, Starlink was the odd bright spot for SpaceX's financials. The division produced $4.4 billion in operating profit off $11.4 billion in sales. SpaceX's other divisions posted operating losses on less revenue.

Starlink's success continued in 2026. Last quarter, Starlink generated $1.7 billion in operating profit. The rest of SpaceX's divisions lost a combined $1.8 billion.

Impressive revenue growth and continued profitability are expected to continue for Starlink. Morningstar predicts the segment will become "a substantial, high-growth business anchored in a focused but meaningful $129 billion global market."

Here's the problem: Starlink won't be enough to double SpaceX's stock price on its own. In fact, Starlink may ultimately be immaterial to SpaceX's long-term potential.

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Here's why Starlink matters for SpaceX, and why it doesn't It's important to understand Starlink within the context of SpaceX's other businesses.

According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the company's total long-term addressable market is valued at $28.6 trillion. Starlink only accounts for $1.6 trillion of that total. Some analysts don't even value the Starlink opportunity that highly.

"The $1.6 trillion TAM figure from SpaceX appears to aggregate the total connectivity market across most countries (excluding China and Russia) and all segments, including wireless, broadband, and enterprise," Morningstar analysts contend. "... We think that this significantly overstates realistic market opportunity for Starlink, as satellite-based connectivity faces physical and technological constraints that are very difficult to overcome in a dense urban environment."

Starlink matters for SpaceX because it helps scale the company's rocket technology through a profitable venture -- profits that can then be redirected to other purposes. What other purposes? Almost exclusively, SpaceX's future hinges on the success of its AI division, which accounts for $26.5 trillion of the company's total claimed $28.5 trillion addressable market.

Starlink's cash flow will help mitigate shareholder dilution and support other growth opportunities. On its own, however, Starlink's success won't move SpaceX's stock price much in the long term. Only the success (or failure) of SpaceX's AI efforts will have a meaningful effect in the years and decades to come.

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees in August that AI revenue would overtake every other part of the business by September. The deadline has passed, and the numbers that will confirm or contradict him are weeks away from filing.

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Elon Musk set a date. He released a 30-minute all-hands video on X on August 11, 2026, which Johnny Rice of The Motley Fool reported on. In it, the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) chief told employees: “Probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month.”

Musk opened with “probably,” switched to “definitely,” then returned to “probably in September.” He stated the crossover with confidence but hedged timing. September has ended, so investors can check this forecast against reported numbers.

What the Crossover Required Johnny Rice cited SpaceX’s second-quarter report: total revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92%. Per Rice, AI contributed $2.56 billion, while Connectivity and Space brought in $5.25 billion combined. AI needed to more than double, assuming the rest of SpaceX stopped growing.

The rest of SpaceX kept growing. The Q2 earnings release filed with the SEC shows Connectivity revenue of $4.291 billion, up 66%. Starlink’s enterprise and government line rose 108%. AI revenue rose 247%, but its $367 million advertising line fell year over year.

On the August 4 earnings call, a SpaceX executive said the company had “contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year.” That revenue starts after Musk’s deadline.

Musk’s Bigger Number Dwarfs Wall Street’s In the same video, Musk set a target of 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of next year. He valued that capacity at roughly $30 to $50 per watt. From those two figures, he derived annual AI revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion by 2028. On the earnings call, he described the per-watt figure this way: “This is just a guess.”

Musk also said Grok will be trained on SpaceX’s internal information, including employees’ own work: “So in a way, it’ll be trained on you.”

Rice cited a much smaller outside estimate. After SpaceX signed its computing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) projected $15.6 billion in AI revenue for all of 2026, according to The Motley Fool.

Three Obstacles Between the Forecast and the Filings Power. SpaceX faces public backlash over methane-burning gas turbines powering Colossus 1 and 2 (The Motley Fool). Capital. Rice noted SpaceX spent over $25 billion on AI last quarter. The filing shows $15.83 billion of the quarter’s $18.37 billion capex went to AI compute. Capacity stood at 1.4 gigawatts at Q2 end. Rice expects a funding shortfall despite $93.52 billion in cash. Musk said SpaceX expects only “a very small percentage” of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs next year. Contracts. Either party can exit the Anthropic and Google contracts with a 90-day notice, according to The Motley Fool. If a customer leaves, SpaceX misses the revenue it built capacity for. How to Settle the September Question SpaceX has filed nothing since the August 4 8-K. The third-quarter report, expected in late October or early November, should answer the question. Check SpaceX’s investor relations site for:

Q3 AI division revenue versus Connectivity plus Space. Look for monthly or exit-rate disclosure if quarterly totals don’t break out September. Progress toward the $100 billion annualized run rate targeted for December, which Musk called “not a question mark”. Whether any customer has used its exit clause. The stock has already moved on the AI story. Shares closed at $158.96 on October 2, up 7.35% on the day and 12.97% over the past month. On October 1, SpaceX launched Google AI chips into orbit as part of its space-based data center push (CNBC). If Q3 numbers show AI still trailing Starlink, the stock will be trading on Musk’s forecast ahead of reported results.

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SpaceX (SPCX +7.36%) wrapped up its third quarter on Sept. 30. Not only was it the rocket and artificial intelligence (AI) company's first full quarter as a public company, but also the first full quarter for several deals and price changes made around its June initial public offering (IPO).

At roughly $152 as of this writing, shares are about 13% over the $135 IPO price but about 32% under the 52-week high of $225.64.

SpaceX hasn't set a date for the report yet. When it lands, up to 1.3 billion extra locked-up shares can start trading on the second full trading day after the release.

Here are the three numbers I think matter most.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Starlink needs to hold $66 a monthStarlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, had 12.0 million subscribers at the end of June, twice the year-ago total. But each pays less. Starlink's average revenue per user (ARPU) was $66 a month in the second quarter, flat with the first quarter but down from $85 a year before. According to SpaceX's quarterly report, the fall came mainly from international expansion and cheaper service plans.

In May, Starlink lifted prices for most U.S. residential and Roam plans by $5 to $10 a month, with current customers paying the higher rates on or after June 18. So the third quarter is the first full one at the new prices.

But management didn't promise the average would climb.

"While our geographic expansion may drive down blended ARPU over time, we anticipate continued subscriber momentum to deliver strong revenue growth," chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said on SpaceX's second-quarter earnings call.

I'd watch for both: ARPU at $66 or more, and net additions around the record 1.7 million from the second quarter. If ARPU dips again even with U.S. prices higher, each new subscriber is arguably worth less than the headline total suggests.

2. Anthropic's first full quarterIn the second quarter, revenue from AI solutions and infrastructure (mainly Grok and X subscriptions plus rented-out data center capacity) leaped to $2.2 billion. This compared with $475 million three months earlier and $311 million a year before. Cloud services, which SpaceX just began offering that quarter, made up $1.6 billion of it.

These deals were just getting started, though. Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, agreed in May to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June at a lower fee. At the full rate, that one customer could make up around $3.75 billion of quarterly revenue -- over double what all of SpaceX's cloud services took in during the second quarter.

Google, owned by Alphabet, begins paying its full $920 million a month in October. And if SpaceX missed a Sept. 30 deadline to deliver the promised hardware, Google can cancel or pay less after a one-month grace period.

Sure, Cursor, the AI coding company SpaceX finished buying on Aug. 14, will probably add to the broader AI line too. So the bar I'd set is cloud services revenue of around $3.75 billion or more, plus word that Google's hardware came on time.

3. Is Falcon flying more often again?SpaceX's space segment pulled in just $962 million in the second quarter. But launch cadence (how often the company flies) helps determine how much capacity Starlink can sell. After all, 27 of SpaceX's 37 Falcon launches in the second quarter carried its own payloads.

The tally of 37 compared with 40 in the first quarter and 45 a year before. It also lagged SpaceX's 2025 rate of 165 Falcon launches, or around 41 a quarter.

"We're currently launching at our highest Falcon cadence," Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX's president and chief operating officer, said on the August call.

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The third-quarter total will show if that held, and I'd want to see Falcon back over 41. Starship also flew twice in the third quarter, versus once in the second. Its Sept. 28 flight reached orbit and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink satellites.

The AI number matters mostOf the three, I think the AI figure carries the most weight. SpaceX spent $23.6 billion on AI capital expenditures in the first half of 2026, compared with $3.3 billion a year before. A full quarter of Anthropic's fee is the first true test of whether that spending becomes revenue on time.

Yes, a strong report could clear all three bars. But at a valuation of about $2 trillion, investors are already paying for most of this to work out, and SpaceX still lost $541 million in the second quarter. I'd want to see the AI number before paying around $152 a share.

"Imagine you had $6 million in cash on a pallet flying through the air that's just going to smash into the ocean. Would you try to recover that? Yes, you would." -- Elon Musk, 2017

That's how Elon Musk described the rationale behind Space Exploration Technology's (SPCX +7.36%) plan to deploy boats at sea, equipped with gigantic nets, to catch one (or both) halves of the fairings from its Falcon 9 rockets after they detached to deploy cargo in orbit. Each complete fairing, said the CEO, cost $6 million to build -- or roughly 10% of the cost of an entire Falcon 9. (That was back in 2017. Thanks to inflation, the cost has reportedly risen to $8 million today.)

And so, the CEO's plan:

"My guess is in the next six months we'll figure out fairing recovery. We have a special boat to catch the fairing; it's like a catcher's mitt but in boat form." -- Elon Musk 2018.

Image source: Getty Images.

40 x $6 million / 2 = what? It's been eight years since Musk made this promise. So, how are things going for SpaceX? Well, there's bad news and good news...and better news:

Fairing separation confirmed. Today's mission marks our first 40th flight of a fairing half! pic.twitter.com/j3slt56YN0

-- SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 20, 2026 Over the past six years, Musk & Co. have launched more than 600 Falcon 9 rockets, and deployed probably well over 1,200 fairing halves. (Once split open, each fairing half comes back to Earth separately). The company initially outfitted two boats with gigantic, raised nets to catch the fairings as they parachuted back to Earth. It caught a handful of fairings this way, but abandoned the effort in 2021.

That's the bad news.

The good news is that SpaceX eventually decided it didn't need to catch the fairings, but could simply guide them to a pickup point using thrusters and parasails, then fish them out of the ocean before they sank, refurbish and reuse them. This has been the procedure for the past five years.

And this is how SpaceX was able to announce last week that at least one fairing half has now flown and been reused an incredible 40 times. (Note that this refers to one particular piece of equipment having been used 40 times. Across SpaceX's entire inventory, many more fairings will have been reused many times.)

And here's the best news of all: Just reusing that one specific half of one specific fairing -- which must have cost at least $3 million to build and may have cost as much as $4 million -- saved SpaceX $120 million. That's roughly enough money to build two complete Falcon 9 rockets. The money saved from reusing all the other fairings SpaceX has used over the years may have been enough to build an entire fleet of Falcons!

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What it means for SpaceX As SpaceX has evolved from a company that launches rockets to one that primarily makes its money from the Starlink satellites launched by those rockets, the importance of saving money on rocket parts has dwindled. As SpaceX evolves even further from a company that launches rockets to a company that provides satellite internet to a company that does $26.5 trillion annually selling artificial intelligence services...well, saving $3 million on a rocket fairing will probably resemble, ever more, a rounding error on the income statement.

Still, SpaceX's relentless focus on keeping costs low is a big part of why it can launch payloads at a lower per-kilogram price than any other space company on the planet. It's how it can launch Starlink satellites so economically.

As SpaceX begins saving even more money by reusing entire spaceships (Starship), it will also be able to launch artificial intelligence satellites into orbit more economically.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are soaring Friday as the company follows through on an ambitious launch schedule, successfully completing missions tied to this week’s triple-launch effort.

SpaceX stock is charging ahead with explosive momentum. Why are SPCX shares rallying? SpaceX Completes its Triple-Launch WindowSpaceX packed three separate launches into a single 13-hour stretch Thursday. One sent four astronauts toward the space station as part of NASA’s Crew-13 mission. Another, Transporter-18, scattered 130 different payloads into low-Earth orbit on behalf of various customers. A third carried a classified National Reconnaissance Office payload, NROL-97, into space aboard a Falcon Heavy rocket.

Records now confirm both Transporter-18 and NROL-97 flew successfully, with Transporter-18 lifting off Oct. 1 from California and NROL-97 following a day later from Florida. Up next, SpaceX plans to launch a Falcon 9 from California on Oct. 5 carrying a payload for the Space Development Agency’s fourth Tranche 1 batch.

This stretch of launches built on Monday’s Starship Flight 14 mission out of Starbase, Texas, the first time the giant rocket actually reached orbit and carried something useful there, namely 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Things didn’t go perfectly. One of the six Raptor engines powering Starship cut out partway through ascent. The vehicle pressed on anyway, released its satellite payload and brought itself back down into the Pacific Ocean under control.

Crew-13 Astronauts Board the Space Station in Record TimeThe four-person Crew-13 team made it inside the space station early Friday, floating through the hatch roughly 25 minutes after it opened between the outpost and their Dragon capsule, named Grace, at 9:43 p.m. EDT Thursday.

NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, who commands the mission, spoke during the welcome ceremony that followed, saying, “It is hard to believe that we’re already here, but we are super glad to be here. We are happy to join you guys and get to work as soon as possible.” Her comment about the speedy arrival wasn’t an exaggeration. Crew-13 docked with the station just 7 hours and 55 minutes after liftoff, the fastest trip any American spacecraft has ever made to reach the ISS, Space.com reported.

SPCX Shares Are PoppingSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 7.21% at $158.75 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +6.29%) market cap is currently hovering around $2 trillion. So, for it to reach $5 trillion by 2030, the stock must essentially rise about 150% in just over four years -- which would be a great return by any measure. If SpaceX can do this, it's a no-brainer buy right now.

But just how fast would its business need to grow to hit this level? The answer may surprise you.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A ton of anticipated growth is already priced into SpaceX stock SpaceX went public with a lot of hype and fanfare. This was reflected in its post-IPO stock price movements, which were rather erratic. However, now that we're a few months removed from the blockbuster IPO, the stock has settled into a fairly tight trading range around $150 per share -- the price at which it opened on its first day of trading.

Still, if you ask some investors (like me), that puts a very high premium on the stock. The reality is that there's a ton of hoped-for future growth already priced into it, so for it to reach $5 trillion will require a monster growth rate.

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First, let's start with a core question: What valuation should this stock trade at when the company's profit margins are fully optimized? During SpaceX's IPO roadshow, it floated a target profit margin of 45%. That's a bold target, and with SpaceX's space business unlikely to be fully developed by 2030, expecting the company to achieve it by then is overly optimistic, at best.

So for now, I'm going to base my calculations on the idea that if all goes well, it could hit a profit margin of 35%. As for a valuation, I think pricing SpaceX stock at 35 times earnings would fair assessment, given the significant upside potential it has within a growing space economy.

For the company to see a $5 trillion market cap, valued at 35 times earnings, with a 35% profit margin, it would need to book $408 billion in revenue. While we don't have SpaceX's actual trailing-12-month total revenue figures, Wall Street analysts estimate SpaceX will produce about $44.5 billion in revenue this year.

So, for SpaceX to get to $408 billion in revenue by 2030, it would require the company to more than 9x its revenue, growing at a 74% compounded annual rate. That's a very lofty target, but Wall Street analysts estimate SpaceX's revenue will rise 153% next year.

For SpaceX's market cap to hit $5 trillion by 2030 -- and to have an underlying business that justifies it at that point -- is an ambitious idea. However, if SpaceX delivers growth in line with analysts' estimates for next year and maintains a similarly intense pace in the years that follow, it could do it. A big piece of the puzzle will be its profit margin. If that ends up much lower than management has forecast, that would undermine this analysis.

SpaceX stock SPCX gained 6% on Friday after CEO Elon Musk said the company could reach a potentially significant milestone in powering Nvidia's artificial intelligence hardware.

Musk said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he was "cautiously optimistic" that SpaceX could run its version of Nvidia's VR72 system at close to 250 kilowatts of average power, with peak power potentially about 10% higher.

He described the development as a "big deal" if it succeeds and said it could also apply to SpaceX's ground-based systems.

Musk attributed the potential achievement to the close working relationship between SpaceX and Nvidia.

He said co-design efforts with Nvidia's engineering team were key to reaching the higher power levels.

Running AI hardware at sustained power levels above typical estimates could allow SpaceX to maintain high utilisation of the systems.

Musk did not specify which AI workloads the system would support.

Aaron Burnett, founder and CEO of space-focused investment and research firm Mach33, said on X that 250 kilowatts of average power could translate into battery-supported peaks of around 275 kilowatts.

Burnett estimated Musk's target would be 10% to 25% above typical third-party reported averages for VR72 systems.

He also said SpaceX's StarMind team would need, or may already have, a system capable of continuously removing the heat generated by a sustained 250-kilowatt load.

Burnett said the joint Nvidia and SpaceX teams could potentially achieve the target.

Musk's comments highlight the growing role of AI infrastructure in SpaceX's business.

The company has disclosed major computing agreements involving Nvidia hardware.

Google is expected to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, memory and related equipment.

SpaceX has also disclosed an agreement with Anthropic under which the AI company would pay $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for output from SpaceX's Colossus 1 data centre near Memphis.

The agreement includes termination provisions for either party.

UBS recently estimated that SpaceX could generate $7.6 billion in third-quarter AI revenue, supported by the Anthropic ramp and an early contribution from Google.

The firm expects total third-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion, compared with Street estimates of $12.9 billion and $6.9 billion, respectively.

UBS also estimated SpaceX's third-quarter capital expenditure at $19.3 billion and cash burn at $13.2 billion.

SpaceX's AI developments came during a milestone-heavy week for the company.

On Monday, Starship Flight 14 reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, marking its first orbital payload.

Musk later said all 26 satellites had been deployed and were operating normally.

The mission ended earlier than initially planned after one of Starship's three Raptor engines shut down following separation from Super Heavy.

The mission lasted about three hours instead of the planned 10 hours, leaving Flight 15 and progress towards vehicle recovery and reuse as the next major tests.

SpaceX also conducted three orbital launches on Thursday.

Falcon 9 launched NASA's Crew-13 aboard Dragon Grace, while the company also conducted the Transporter-18 rideshare mission with about 130 payloads and the Falcon Heavy NROL-97 national-security mission.

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI reiterated its Outperform rating on SpaceX and highlighted Grok as an underappreciated part of the company's AI story.

The firm noted that Grok launched before Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, while describing it as a potentially significant component of the broader SpaceX AI story.

CEO Elon Musk makes aspirational comments. His comments at the White House this week were that.

Starship reaching orbit scrambles the economics for every rocket startup, and Rocket Lab and Redwire are betting on opposite strategies to survive the fallout. Only one of those bets looks smart right now.

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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) and Redwire (NYSE:RDW) posted record second quarters in August on Pentagon demand. Now SpaceX’s Starship has reached orbit, changing the competitive landscape. Rocket Lab is building a rival rocket; Redwire is buying rides from SpaceX. That split matters.

Rocket Lab Builds the Rival. Redwire Buys the Ride. Rocket Lab’s revenue rose 62% to $234.07 million, with backlog reaching $2.36 billion. Space Systems brought in $189.5 million versus $44.6 million from launch. CEO Sir Peter Beck: “The most successful space companies will be the ones that have the keys to space.”

Redwire grew faster. Revenue rose 89.6% to $117.07 million. Edge Autonomy’s Stalker and Penguin drones raised Defense Tech revenue to $61.88 million, which put it ahead of the Space division. A book-to-bill ratio of 1.42 means new orders are still coming in faster than Redwire delivers. Its venture SpaceMD also bought an entire SpaceX Starfall spacecraft for a 2028 microgravity mission. CEO Peter Cannito called it “a game changer.”

Business Driver Rocket Lab Redwire Main Growth Engine Flatellite and GEO satellites Stalker and Penguin drones SpaceX Relationship Competitor via Neutron Customer via Starfall Backlog $2.36 billion $542.1 million Starship Puts a Target on Neutron’s Price Tag Starship is a real threat to Neutron’s pricing. Launching on Falcon 9 already costs about $2,700 a kilogram. As SpaceX gets better at reuse, repairing a rocket could cost roughly 1/100th of building a new one. Rocket Lab prices Neutron at an average of $50 to 55 million per launch, and CFO Adam Spice sees “more upside to ASPs.” I doubt that holds if Starship’s launch pace keeps climbing. Beck says that “launch has never been so constrained,” but Neutron still has to fly, and he admitted that “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.”

Rocket Lab is valued at 57.93 times sales, compared with Redwire’s 6.12. That gap assumes Neutron comes through. Rocket Lab shares sit at $70.46, up just 1% this year and far below their 52-week high of $151. That’s despite a rise today on a record Electron launch deal and a Citi buy rating. Redwire, at $10.58, is up 39.21% this year as drone orders keep building.

Neutron’s Stage Test Could Reset Both Stocks I’m watching Neutron’s stage testing, which Beck called the last major step before first flight. I’m also tracking Rocket Lab’s Q3 revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million. For Redwire, keep an eye on gross margin. Management still guides to the “low to mid-20s”, even though Q2 came in at 27.8%.

Why I Lean Toward Redwire While Starship Scales Redwire fits this moment better. Cheaper launch helps a company buying rides, and its drones sell into NATO demand independent of rocket costs. A quarterly loss of $40.97 million warrants caution.

Rocket Lab is the stronger business with $2.13 billion in cash and an Iridium deal closing in mid-2027. If Neutron flies successfully, I would rethink quickly. Until then, its valuation leaves little room for a Starship price war.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

The Pentagon just handed Elon Musk a role shaping which weapons America builds for the next century, and SpaceX already holds billions in the contracts those decisions will influence.

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On September 30, 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appointed Elon Musk, Anduril founder Palmer Luckey, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to lead a Pentagon review of future war. The effort, called Project Meridian, is a 120-day study, according to TRT World.

Musk runs SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction). Its shares fell 1.85% in the October 1 session, to $148.07 on a delayed quote as of 7:59 PM ET. No evidence links that move to the appointment.

What Project Meridian Actually Commits To Final recommendations are due to Hegseth on January 28, 2027. They will come as a public report plus a classified annex. By design, the study stops short of producing new strategy or policy documents, limiting formal weight. The Pentagon’s chief technology officer manages it. It launched alongside a new Autonomous Warfare Command, according to OECD AI Policy Observatory. Budget, staffing and pay terms were not disclosed.

The scope covers AI, autonomy, directed energy, robotics and biotechnology across underground settings to cislunar space. Hegseth said the work should “be focused on discovering, developing, and fielding the weapons and systems that our children and grandchildren will need in their lifetimes, without any creative limitations or restrictions, on any future battlefield.” Palmer Luckey said: “Together, we will not only study the wars being fought today but also think seriously about the wars we cannot afford to fight in 2030, 2050, and 2100.”

What SPCX Holders Are Now Exposed To SpaceX holds $8 billion in defense contracts in 2026, including national security launch services and Starshield, a secure satellite network for government customers. In Q2 2026, Enterprise & Government revenue rose 108% to $1.806 billion. Total quarterly revenue was $7.81 billion.

The stock is up 4.11% over the past month and down 8% since its June 12, 2026 debut. That figure shows the return since listing. Public shareholders now have exposure to a government advisory process that the company’s own CEO helps lead.

Why the Vendor-Advisor Overlap Cuts Both Ways Two co-leads run Pentagon suppliers. Anduril sells jammers, interceptors and autonomous systems under its own contracts. The Guardian reported that the appointments raise conflict-of-interest concerns.

A counterargument: the people who built today’s defense technology typically sell it. Reusable rockets and low-cost autonomy came from commercial builders. Emil Michael said he wants “five more Andurils and Palantirs and SpaceXs”, suggesting the department treats commercial builders as a capability source by design.

Does a Study That Cannot Set Policy Matter? Its influence comes through what gets funded. The FY2027 request calls for $59.7 billion for space capabilities. For SpaceX holders, any near-term business effect remains undefined. Watch after January 28, 2027 whether the public report is released in full and whether the following year’s procurement requests follow its recommendations.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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SpaceX gets the headlines, and since its June 2026 IPO you can finally own a piece of it under the ticker SPCX. The bigger story, though, is where all those rockets are headed. The U.S. and China are now racing to build the first permanent base on the Moon, and the company that launches the rockets is only one part of that effort. The real opportunity is in the firms that will build and supply the base itself, and three of them already trade publicly. Those are the space stocks worth watching now.

Space stocks are shares of public companies tied to the space economy, from the launch providers that get us off the ground to the firms that build the landers, power, communications, and engines a mission depends on. What has the whole group moving right now is a single, enormous goal: a working base on the Moon.

Why the Moon Economy Is a Massive Infrastructure Opportunity To see why this is such a big opportunity, start with the closest thing to a Moon base we have on Earth: the U.S. research station at the South Pole. Everything there has to be hauled across a thousand miles of ice, and that logistics problem, not the science, is what has always defined the place.

The Navy built the first station in 1956, and blowing snow slowly buried it. A domed replacement went up in 1975, and the snow crept over its entrances too. Today’s Amundsen-Scott Station finally solved the problem by standing on columns, so the wind sweeps the snow beneath it instead of piling it on top. Even then, building it took a decade and more than 900 flights, and crews still drive 990 miles from the coast to keep it supplied with fuel and cargo.

The takeaway is simple. In a place with no roads, no stores, and no power grid, getting there was never the hard part. Keeping people alive there is. A Moon base is the same problem on a far larger scale, and solving it will take an entire industry.

The New Space Race Is a Supply-Chain Race The first space race was the United States against the Soviet Union. This one is the United States against China, and the prize is bigger than planting a flag: whoever builds the first working base on the Moon sets the terms for everything that comes after. China has said it is aiming for a crewed landing before 2030 and a base by 2035, while NASA’s Artemis program is targeting its first crewed landing on the surface in 2028.

Both are headed for the same place, the Moon’s south pole, for one reason: water ice. Break that ice into hydrogen and oxygen and you get drinking water, breathable air, and rocket fuel, all produced on site. That is what turns the Moon from somewhere you visit into somewhere you can actually operate.

NASA will not build that alone. It plays the role of anchor customer and leaves the landers, power, communications, and logistics to private industry. Its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program already has 17 deliveries scheduled carrying more than 60 payloads, and it has just asked companies to bid on surface power, oxygen extraction, and building materials. Which company makes the rocket is the easy question, and the answer is SpaceX, Blue Origin, and a few others. The question that matters for investors is who builds and runs everything else once people arrive.

3 Space Stocks to Watch in the Moon Economy Three public space stocks are competing for that work, and they sit at very different points on the risk spectrum.

Intuitive Machines Stock: the utility company for the Moon. Most investors know Intuitive Machines (LUNR) as a lunar lander company, but it is aiming to become something bigger: the utility company for the Moon. In March, NASA awarded it a $180.4 million mission to carry payloads to the lunar south pole, and the Houston company is sitting on a $1.8 billion backlog and $367 million in cash. A lander gets you to the surface once. A company that also runs the communications and navigation after you land keeps earning long after the mission ends, and that is the business Intuitive Machines is trying to build.

Firefly Aerospace Stock: the repeatable delivery play. Firefly Aerospace (FLY) has already pulled off the hard part, landing its Blue Ghost spacecraft on the Moon in March. In June it won a $144 million NASA contract for a 2028 mission, its sixth lunar flight under contract. Landing once proves you can do it; landing again and again turns it into a real business, and that is what Firefly is working toward. The stock sold off sharply once the early excitement cooled, which is often where a patient investor finds a better entry.

L3Harris Stock: the sleep-at-night space stock. L3Harris (LHX) is the steady one in the group, a large, established defense and aerospace company rather than a young lunar startup. It built the four RS-25 engines for NASA’s planned 2027 Artemis III mission, so it sells the engines and avionics that get paid no matter which rocket company comes out on top. For investors who want a stake in the Moon buildout without the wild swings of the smaller names, L3Harris is the calmer way in. It will not leap on a single headline the way LUNR or FLY can, but it also has far less to lose if the timeline slips.

How to Invest in Space Stocks Without Chasing the Hype There is a catch worth understanding before you buy any of them: these small space stocks tend to move as a pack. LUNR, FLY, and a few others all jumped together when SpaceX was in the news, then fell back together once the attention moved on. That tells you investors are trading the story of the industry, not the results of any single company, so when you buy matters as much as what you buy.

It also means no stock is cheap or expensive on its own. LUNR at $12 is not a bargain simply because it once traded at $20. It is only cheap or expensive next to its backlog, its contract pipeline, its competition, and what comparable companies have been worth at the same stage. A Moon base is a project measured in years, so you can be completely sold on the story and still wait for the right price.

Because these names rise and fall together, you are really buying the industry more than any one winner. In a field this young, where any single company can stumble, owning a small basket of the names tied to the trend is usually smarter than betting everything on the one you expect to come out on top.

The Bottom Line A century after the first explorers reached the South Pole, keeping a station running there still takes a full supply chain. A Moon base will be harder, and the real work begins only after the first landing. SpaceX will keep the headlines, but the companies winning the contracts to build and supply the base are the ones worth watching. The only discipline required is waiting for the market to hand you a sensible way in.

Space Stocks: Frequently Asked Questions Is SpaceX publicly traded? Yes. SpaceX went public in June 2026 and now trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. For exposure to the broader Moon buildout beyond SpaceX itself, the contract winners to watch are Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), and L3Harris (LHX).

What are space stocks? Space stocks are shares of public companies tied to the space economy, from rocket launch providers to the firms that build lunar landers, satellites, power and communications systems, and the engines and avionics behind government space programs.

What is the best space stock to buy now? It depends on how much risk you want. LUNR and Firefly are higher-risk bets on lunar delivery, while L3Harris is the larger, steadier supplier. Because these stocks tend to move together, judge each one on its backlog, cash, and valuation rather than on the latest headline.

Want to trade like a 25-year market pro? Jonathan Rose shows regular investors how in Masters in Trading LIVE, his free 15-minute class every market morning at 11 a.m. ET. Sign up free.

SpaceX launched a new crew of four astronauts to the International Space Station, as questions swirl over the company's plans for the future of its human spaceflight program. Once at the ISS, the crew will live and work there for the next six months.

When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.66%) debuted this past June, it drew significant investor attention. While the stock traded like a roller coaster in the early days, it has settled into a fairly narrow trading range over the past month. This makes now a great time to evaluate what the future could hold for this visionary company. At its current price of around $151, a $10,000 initial investment would buy you around 66 shares.

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Over the next several years, SpaceX's growth will likely be driven by its AI computing leasing business and its satellite internet business, Starlink. SpaceX has been investing aggressively in building out its AI infrastructure, and it's basically created its own neocloud unit that rents out its excess compute power. As a bridge provider of compute power in a world with an insatiable appetite for it, SpaceX has been getting incredible short-term rates.

This is leading to strong returns for the business, with SpaceX saying it is getting a payback on its AI infrastructure investments in about a year. It recently signed a $1.1 billion per month compute deal, and said that it could potentially double the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) installed in its Colossus 2 supercomputer by year's end. Analysts see big upsides from these investments: Evercore projects that this investment could push SpaceX's AI solutions and infrastructure revenue to $83 billion in 2027, versus the $47 billion consensus. TD Cowen, meanwhile, projected that SpaceX will lease out up to 49% of its AI computing capacity through 2031.

Starlink also remains a growth driver. This is a great recurring revenue business, and it's growing quickly. Last quarter, the segment's revenue surged 66% year over year to $4.3 billion, while its number of subscribers doubled to 12 million. It continues to have a large opportunity, including in the consumer, enterprise (airlines and mobile partnerships), and government sectors.

Beyond these two businesses, the picture gets both murkier and more exciting. The company just completed the 14th test flight of its Starship rocket, which could be the gateway for it to generate significant other revenue streams, including from data center satellites in Earth orbit. It's also working with Nvidia on AI infrastructure that can withstand the rigors of space. The optionality of these potential ventures should keep the stock's valuation multiples high.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

By 2035, analysts anticipate that SpaceX will produce nearly $2.25 trillion in annual revenue and be highly profitable, generating adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $41.24. Now, the further out you go, the more variables there are, and that is reflected in analysts' revenue estimates, which range from $1 trillion to slightly over $3 trillion.

When it comes to the question of how the market might be valuing SpaceX at that point, we can look to Musk's other public company, Tesla, for hints. In the first half of 2020, it traded at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios in the 3 to 8 range. Using the low and high ends of analyst revenue forecasts and Tesla's historical multiple range would value SpaceX at a market cap between $3 trillion and $24 trillion. Based on the $2.25 trillion consensus, meanwhile, it would be valued between $6.75 trillion and $18 trillion.

Given that SpaceX's future revenues will be highly dependent on it making considerable capital expenditures up front, we should assume there will be share dilution along the way. Let's assume the company's diluted share count will increase 1% a year (between capex and share compensation) to around 14.4 billion. That would value its stock at between $210 and $1,670 using the low and high ends of analyst estimates and Tesla's multiple. Using just the consensus revenue estimate, the stock would trade between $470 and $1,250.

That's a wide range, so if we want to just take the consensus and use a reasonable P/S multiple of 5, the stock would trade at around $780. That's over a fivefold increase from current prices, turning a $10,000 investment into around $51,500.

Now, SpaceX is going to have to execute, and there are a wide variety of outcomes, but it looks like this AI stock has plenty of long-term upside from here.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) set a record for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in capital markets history. It raised nearly $86 billion in June. The market capitalization at open exceeded $2 trillion, with shares trading at $150.

If you invested $10,000 in this leading space stock at its IPO, here's how much you'd have today.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

In its extremely short trading history, SpaceX shares have fallen 9% since the IPO opening price (as of Sept. 29). If you invested $10,000 when the stock hit public markets, you'd have $9,137 today.

The ride has been highly volatile. At its low point on Aug. 5, the stock was down 33%. Since then, it has rocketed 37% higher.

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Revenue growth has been spectacular, up 92% year over year in the second quarter (ended June 30). This was driven by a 66% gain in connectivity and a 274% surge in artificial intelligence, the latter supported by new cloud service agreements.

The business remains unprofitable, although the operating loss shrank considerably in Q2. Significant cash burn is another key part of the financial story. SpaceX's capital expenditures climbed 550% year over year to $18.4 billion in the second quarter as it invests in AI infrastructure.

No one denies that this is an extremely exciting company. However, investors might want to think twice about buying shares right now. They trade at a price-to-sales ratio of 95.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Ukraine is urging the United States to impose sanctions on several Russian entities that it says ​are helping develop Moscow's Rassvet satellite network as a domestic alternative to SpaceX's Starlink, its acting ambassador said ‌on Wednesday.

Denys Sienik, deputy chief of mission at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington, told reporters that Russia was rapidly expanding the Rassvet satellite network, saying its goal to start operations in 2027 would pose grave risks to Ukraine.

"If they launch Rassvet by the end of 2026, they will be able to target ​to hit Ukrainian targets real time on our territory," Sienik said, adding that he would share details with the US ​government and Congress about the firms and individuals that Kyiv accuses of aiding Rassvet.

Ukraine plans to issue ⁠its own national sanctions against the entities linked to the network, Sienik said, adding: "If these entities are not sanctioned, it will ​actually make this program possible for Russia and that will be a game-changer."

Russia plans to start operating Rassvet, a smaller version of Elon ​Musk's Starlink system, in 2027, Alexei Shelobkov, CEO of Iks Holding, the company developing the service, said in June. The company launched its first 16 low-orbit satellites in March and plans to reach 900 over several years.

SpaceX currently has over 10,000 satellites in orbit. Starlink is banned in Russia, and the use ​of its equipment is subject to fines.

Western nations have targeted the infrastructure behind Russia's space-based communications efforts, but gaps remain. Kyiv has ​been pressing Washington to expand sanctions against a broader group of Russian companies and individuals.

Ukraine has been clamoring for access to expanded Starlink satellite internet ‌coverage so ⁠it can strike Russian ballistic missile launchers located inside Russian territory, a message backed by Finnish President Alexander Stubb last week.

With winter looming, Ukraine has an acute shortage of air defenses to repel Russian ballistic missiles, and Kyiv officials believe that turning on Starlink over Russian territory would help it target the Russian launchers that fire the missiles.

Sienik also expressed frustration about the lack of US response when American ​firms were hit in Ukraine, ​noting that US officials had ⁠complained loudly when Ukraine had targeted US assets in the Caspian Sea, resulting in closer cooperation and more precise targeting.

But Washington remained silent in terms of messaging to Moscow when US firms in Ukraine ​were struck, and officials were even reluctant to name the companies affected, he said.

Sienik last week ​posted details of ⁠US firms being hit by Russia missiles in Ukraine, including offices of Boeing, Flex and Bunge. A Coca-Cola facility in the Kyiv region was also hit in September, along with a logistics facility serving McDonald’s, he said in his message on X.

"It is not a coincidence, Russia ⁠knows what ​it is doing by attacking regular businesses operating in Ukraine, supported by American ​investment and serving civilian needs," he wrote.

"While Russia must be deprived of the possibility to cause more deaths and destruction by strong sanctions, Ukraine must have enough air ​defense capabilities to protect itself but also to ensure the security of the American businesses operating and investing in Ukraine."

Starship's next chapter goes far beyond traditional space exploration. Summary

Musk says orbital computing capacity could eventually reach one terawatt.

Elon Musk has outlined an ambitious new growth opportunity for SpaceX SPCX, revealing plans to eventually launch hundreds of gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing capacity into orbit annually, potentially reaching one terawatt over the longer term. The vision would dramatically expand SpaceX's role beyond rocket launches and satellite connectivity as surging AI electricity demand tests the limits of infrastructure on Earth.

Speaking alongside Nvidia NVDA CEO Jensen Huang at an America.Gov event on September 29, Musk argued that power generation could become one of the biggest constraints on America's ability to compete in artificial intelligence.

He noted that China's electricity production is roughly three times that of the United States, making additional domestic generating capacity increasingly important.

But Musk believes part of the long-term solution lies beyond Earth.

"So orbital compute is going to be a very big deal," he said, explaining that SpaceX and Tesla are aiming for approximately 200 gigawatts of annual solar production.

His rationale is that solar infrastructure deployed in space can access sunlight far more consistently than installations on Earth, potentially reducing the need for enormous battery systems.

The ambitions extend even further.

"And then in addition, it will launch at least a few hundred gigawatts a year of AI compute. 200 gigawatts a year would be a 40% increase annually in the United States total energy consumption. So that's quite a big number. And it might end up being a terawatt one day. So this is serious tonnage."

Starship would be central to executing that vision.

Following what Musk described as the rocket's first orbital flight, he predicted Starship could eventually achieve a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence next year.

Investors TakeawayOrbital computing could introduce an entirely new commercial opportunity for SpaceX, potentially connecting its launch capabilities with Tesla's energy ambitions and Nvidia's advanced computing hardware.

However, the economics remain unproven at the proposed scale.

Investors should monitor Starship's launch frequency, reusable payload economics, orbital cooling requirements and the feasibility of deploying hundreds of gigawatts of infrastructure.

Crucially, Musk's terawatt ambition remains a long-term possibility rather than a confirmed production commitment.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

Anthropic has emerged as a leading artificial intelligence (AI) company. Its Claude chatbot has been shown to be excellent in terms of coding, and it's been a popular choice among business users.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +1.04%), more commonly referred to as just SpaceX, also has its own AI chatbot in Grok. AI, however, is just one of multiple areas that SpaceX is investing heavily in, alongside space and its Starlink internet business.

When Anthropic goes public, it's believed it'll fetch a valuation of close to $2 trillion, which is around what SpaceX is worth these days. Which stock would be a better option for growth investors?

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's business may be bigger, but that also makes it more complexWhile SpaceX is broader than Anthropic, as its business encompasses more than just AI, that doesn't automatically make it the better growth investment. For one thing, SpaceX will require greater cash infusions to fund its operations. And the bad news is that they're all asset-heavy businesses to be in; SpaceX will need to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, data centers, rockets, and satellites, among other things, in order to grow all of its business units. There's also the potential that Elon Musk will merge SpaceX with his electric vehicle company, Tesla, in the near future.

Anthropic, with a much simpler business model centered around a highly popular chatbot, Claude, suddenly becomes a bit more intriguing to consider. While its growth prospects may not be as broad as SpaceX's, it's likely not going to need to spend as heavily, either. That can make for a leaner business, and one that's more likely to turn a profit in the near future.

Anthropic may soon be profitable, while SpaceX's losses could get deeper in the futureAnthropic hasn't released its full financials to the public yet, but it has reportedly told shareholders that it's on track to post a second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted operating income. The keyword, however, is 'adjusted,' signifying that the business isn't truly profitable just yet. But with it targeting business users, it may very well be in a stronger position to turn a profit than other AI companies, whose chatbots may not be similarly focused.

SpaceX, meanwhile, is not only spending heavily on capital expenditures, but its losses remain significant. Through the first six months of the year, the company has reported an operating loss of $2.1 billion, and its capital expenditures have totaled $28.5 billion -- the bulk of that being on AI ($23.6 billion). As SpaceX continues to scale its different business units, its losses may very well rise higher, and it could take a long time before it truly has a path to profitability.

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Why I’d go with SpaceXI don't think either one of these companies is worth a $1 trillion valuation, let alone $2 trillion. Even without seeing Anthropic's full financials, I expect its losses are likely significant given the heavy investments SpaceX has been making into AI just to try to be competitive.

But if I were picking between these two companies, then SpaceX would have to be the one that I would invest in. The company's CEO, Elon Musk, has done a tremendous job of growing businesses over the years, and there's loads of potential for him to reach new heights with SpaceX.

Although its valuation is incredibly high right now, it can be a compelling option for long-term investors willing to be patient and hang on. If SpaceX hits its lofty goals, its valuation could soar tremendously. Anthropic, which may face considerable competition, looks to be a riskier option given that its success hinges more on AI.

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX), shares of which are up 3.3% over the past month, is known to many investors as a rockets and satellites company. But there’s much more to the story. And that includes a vibrant AI thesis.

SpaceX’s various AI efforts could present aggressive traders with opportunities to capitalize with the Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2X ETF (LOFF). The fund debuted in June soon after the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO). It attempts to deliver 200% of the daily returns of this new stock. Among the AI-related items for prospective LOFF traders to stay abreast of is the newly minted Grok Bot.

“While still early, we find Grok Bot to be intriguing and have noticed a lot of positive user feedback since its release last month with weekly users reportedly at 418k as of Sep 14,” noted Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu. “We think Grok Bot represents a very easy way to deploy agents across a range of functions spanning e-mail triage to coding tasks. That being said, we don’t see Grok Bot aspiring to a be a “killer” consumer app but rather one element of an evolving Grok+Cursor ecosystem that is trying to be more friendly to enterprise customers. Looking forward, we believe this is a key driver for the stock to potentially re-rate higher: can these tools ultimately resonate with enterprises and drive meaningful growth?”

AI Could Spell Liftoff for LOFF
Perhaps even more compelling to LOFF traders and SpaceX investors than Grok Bot is the company’s effort to boost its AI compute capacity, which is powered by Nvidia chips. Compute demand is through the roof. That indicates SpaceX may be at the right place time in addressing that need.

“Supporting this expansion, SpaceX is putting up the largest grid-connected battery pack bank in the US worth 3.3 GWh,” added Yu.

Of note to traders considering the leveraged LOFF, one of the first single-stock ETFs addressing SpaceX, are data points indicating the company is already making AI compute strides.

“Specifically on the neocloud deals, we estimate the five signed customers are worth $54.5bn on an annualized revenue run-rate basis. Management has not disclosed the exact compute allocation to these contracts but we estimate 1.2-1.4 GW, implying $40-45bn per GW pricing, toward the higher end of $30-50bn range,” concluded the Deutsche Bank analyst.

For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Leveraged & Inverse Content Hub.

A quiet executive compensation filing at AST SpaceMobile set off a wave of takeover speculation Wednesday, sending shares surging alongside Rocket Lab while investors scramble to separate genuine signal from noise in an already volatile space sector.

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AST SpaceMobile stock is in focus Wednesday after a newly disclosed change-of-control severance policy for senior executives sparked speculation about a potential takeover or strategic investment. The policy does not confirm that AST SpaceMobile is in talks to be acquired, and the company has not announced a transaction. ASTS stock gained 5% to $62.30 in early Wednesday trading.

The speculation comes as AST SpaceMobile continues working toward the next phase of its satellite rollout, giving investors another reason to focus on execution alongside the latest trading action. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) are also moving in the space-stock spotlight, while the broader Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE ARCA:SPY) provide useful context for separating company-specific moves from the wider market.

AST SpaceMobile Takeover Speculation AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock initially jumped on news that the board had adopted a change-of-control severance arrangement covering CEO Abel Avellan and other senior executives. The arrangement generally requires both a change of control and a qualifying executive departure, meaning the filing by itself does not establish that AST SpaceMobile is pursuing or facing an acquisition.

Still, the filing was enough to fuel speculation among retail traders about a possible strategic investment or takeover. AST SpaceMobile’s recent trading history also shows why the stock can react sharply to incremental news, with shares gaining 5% Wednesday morning.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX Join the Move Rocket Lab remains another closely watched space stock as investors assess the sector’s growth prospects and the company’s expanding launch and satellite businesses. Rocket Lab is preparing for another Electron mission and expects its larger Neutron rocket to add another potential growth driver later this year, while the company is also pursuing its planned acquisition of Iridium Communications. RKLB stock was up 5% to $73.51 Wednesday morning.

SpaceX adds another major name to the comparison because the private space company now represents a significant holding in the Procure Space ETF. The ETF’s current holdings show SpaceX at 14.76%, followed by Rocket Lab at 5.62% and AST SpaceMobile at 4.86%, making moves in all three companies relevant to UFO’s daily performance. In early Wednesday trading, SpaceX stock was up 0.69% to $150.26.

UFO Puts the Moves in Context The Procure Space ETF, up 1% to $42.96, offers a broader way to track the space-stock group because its portfolio extends well beyond AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and SpaceX. UFO follows the S-Network Space Index and is designed to provide exposure to companies involved across the space economy rather than concentrating entirely on launch or satellite communications.

That diversification can make UFO’s daily move considerably less dramatic than a single high-beta space stock. The ETF rose 1% to $42.73, while AST SpaceMobile jumped 5% to $61.56, illustrating how individual stocks can move independently of the broader space basket. For broad market context, the SPY ETF is up 0.5% to $768.

What ASTS Investors Are Watching The bigger question for AST SpaceMobile investors is whether the takeover speculation develops into anything concrete or fades as attention returns to the company’s operating milestones. Investors are still waiting for a shipment or launch date for BlueBird satellites 14 through 16, while recent reporting has also highlighted a proposed German network involving 344 satellites.

That makes launch cadence and satellite execution important counterweights to speculation surrounding the executive compensation filing. A confirmed transaction would obviously change the discussion, but without one, AST SpaceMobile’s operating progress remains a more tangible factor for investors evaluating the company’s longer-term prospects.

For comparison, the broader market has been considerably less focused on these company-specific developments, with SPY serving as a useful benchmark for the overall equity market. The contrast between the broad-market ETF, UFO and the individual space stocks can help investors determine whether a particular move reflects a sector-wide shift or a catalyst specific to AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab or SpaceX.

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While the SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock rally saw a significant slowdown in September, short volume has continued accumulating and finally reached a two-week high on the penultimate day of the month.

Specifically, SPCX short volume ratio – a measurement tracking short trading relative to overall volume – hit 59.50 on Tuesday, September 29. 

The number represents the highest reading in the last two weeks, with the second-highest, 57.74, being recorded on Monday for a significant increase from Friday’s 53.34.

SpaceX stock daily short volume ratio between September 16 and 29. Source: Fintel Notably, two recent SPCX stock price peaks – September 17 and 22 – saw comparatively few shorts, with the relevant volume at 51.04 and 54.61, respectively, per the data Finbold retrieved from Fintel on September 30.

Indeed, the September 17 reading is particularly interesting since it represented the two-week low despite SpaceX equity seeing its highest close – $154.81 – of the timeframe on the day.

Similarly, the short volume ratio throughout the period is interesting as it indicates that the proportion of bearish bets has been continuously outweighing longs since September 16.

What’s next for SPCX stock? Elsewhere, the recent spike appears unlikely to have a bearing on the mid and long-term SpaceX stock performance. 

Indeed, despite the short volume ratio being elevated in recent weeks, SPCX shares are down only 1% since September 16 and remain, at $149.24 at the latest close, 3.86% in the green on the 30-day chart.

SpaceX stock price 30-day and two-week performance. Source: Google Still, Elon Musk’s newer public company could face renewed selling pressure through October. After soaring nearly 35% between July 31 and August 12, SpaceX stock slowed down, and subsequent trading extended the gain only slightly to 37% by the September 29 close.

Additionally, SPCX managed to retain a price above the $135 at the initial public offering (IPO), but $150 – the day-one open – has turned into a stubborn resistance that has so far prevented a breakout.

Meanwhile, the Starship Flight 14 rocket test launch failed – akin to its predecessor – to turn into a decisive bullish catalyst, and with Elon Musk forecasting no major technological developments such as the release of artificial intelligence (AI) models comparable to ChatGPT-6 or Fable, the equity can hope for few tailwinds in the foreseeable future. 

Simultaneously, with SpaceX stock recording its first-ever proper insider sale last week and the U.S. November midterm elections likely to generate volatility, selling pressure could easily take sway through most of late 2026.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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The SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock rally is likely to continue but not significantly accelerate by the end of next month, based on the analysis conducted by a variety of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) models Finbold consulted on Wednesday, September 30.

Specifically, after analyzing the equity markets, technological advancements, and other business factors, the average AI forecast for the October 31 – or, rather, for Friday, October 30 – SPCX price stood at $156.88: 5.12% above the latest close at $149.24.

Google Gemini sets high SpaceX stock AI price target To begin with, Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) platform, Google Gemini, highlighted the recent success of the Starship Flight 14 and the Wall Street analyst optimism regarding SpaceX stock.

The AI then added that the next quarterly earnings report – expected on November 3 – is likely to lead to equity accumulation already in mid-October, leading the platform to estimate SPCX will end October at $162.50.

Gemini AI SpaceX stock price prediction for end of October, 2026. Source: Finbold & Google Gemini ChatGPT and DeepSeek estimate modest upside for SpaceX stock OpenAI’s flagship platform, ChatGPT, flagged similar factors as Gemini, but took a more conservative tone in its analysis. Indeed, it described the recent rocket launch as backing the current valuation rather than generating tailwinds and reflected on external headwinds such as rising interest rates.

Additionally, ChatGPT estimated the next earnings report would come on November 17, leading the AI to conclude it can only have a limited bearing. Still, despite the tone, the platform’s $160 price target was the second-highest between the four consulted models.

ChatGPT AI SpaceX stock price prediction for end of October, 2026. Source: Finbold & ChatGPT Meanwhile, China’s most recognizable artificial intelligence, DeepSeek, reflected on Starship Flight 15 and Flight 16 – one allegedly tentatively scheduled for mid and the other for late October – as potential catalysts.

This model, however, also noted another major lockup period expiry on October 25 as potentially bearish but also conceded that SpaceX’s business is accelerating. Ultimately, DeepSeek AI forecasted SPCX stock will find itself at $158.

DeepSeek AI SpaceX stock price prediction for end of October, 2026. Source: Finbold & DeepSeek Claude AI anticipates October pullback for SpaceX stock Finally, Anthropic’s Claude proved the outlier as it was the only one to make a bearish prediction. 

To support such a take, the AI reached for the lack of strong bullish reactions to recent positive developments, trouble in the bond market, expiring insider lockups and retail investor selling, high volatility in recent trading, and, perhaps most importantly, current valuation leaving a minuscule margin.

Thus, Claude determined SpaceX stock is likely to decline 1.5% to $147 by the end of October.

Claude AI SpaceX stock price prediction for end of October, 2026. Source: Finbold & Claude SPCX stock price chart Elsewhere, SPCX shares appear poised to end September in the green as they are, at their latest closing price of $149.24, 3.86% in the green on the 30-day chart.

SpaceX stock price one-month chart. Source: Google Notably, the month featured high volatility, with several rapid moves between 5% and 10% in either direction, and with the Tuesday spike in the stock’s short volume ratio indicating the next shift could be downward.

Similarly, despite rising high above the early August and all-time low, and above the initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, SpaceX shares remain below both the day-one open at $150 and the first-day close at $160.95.

Featured image via Shutterstock

SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is expected to post third-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion, 7% above consensus, with its AI business leading growth, according to UBS.

The broker also forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion, up 9% from a consensus of $6.9 billion, alongside growth across all three business segments.

AI is expected to contribute $7.6 billion in quarterly revenue, driven by the expansion of the Anthropic (Unlisted (US):ANTHRO) deal and an initial contribution from Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)'s Google.

UBS forecasts AI revenue of $15 billion in the fourth quarter and $27 billion for 2026 as Google and other compute deals contribute.

As SpaceX scales its businesses, UBS estimates third-quarter capital expenditure of $19.3 billion and cash burn of $13.2 billion.

Growth also extends beyond AI, with UBS estimating connectivity revenue rose 59% year over year to $4.9 billion as subscribers reached 14.3 million.

The broker estimates 2.3 million subscriber additions, up from 1.7 million in the second quarter, ahead of the V3 constellation entering operations.

Starship's first orbital mission, Flight 14, deployed 26 V3 satellites, representing more than 25 terabits per second of additional capacity.

UBS wrote that the mission strengthened its confidence in scaling the constellation, which it expects to expand Starlink's reach in consumer broadband.

Across the space segment, UBS estimates revenue rose to $1.3 billion from approximately $1 billion in the second quarter, supported by 35 launches.

The next milestone is Flight 15, which UBS expects by year-end, when SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship for the first time.