The AI infrastructure race has turned into an arms race where investors reward growth right up until the bill comes due. Across the sector, companies are reporting record revenue while simultaneously spending unprecedented sums to build data centers, buy chips, and secure long-term computing capacity.
The result is a market that has become far less forgiving of soaring capital expenditures, even when the underlying business is thriving. That helps explain why SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is plunging this morning despite delivering an earnings report that, on the surface, looked difficult to criticize.
Outstanding Growth Wasn’t Enough SpaceX generated $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, a 92% increase from a year ago and nearly $1 billion ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.
The biggest surprise came from AI cloud services. AI-specific revenue reached $2.6 billion, climbing 213% sequentially as enterprise demand accelerated. Management also disclosed $14.1 billion in contracted cloud services agreements, including major customers such as Anthropic and Google, giving investors fresh evidence that demand remains robust.
By almost every operating measure, the quarter looked like a success.
Metric Q2 Result Revenue $7.8 billion (+92%) AI Revenue $2.6 billion (+213% sequentially) Contracted Cloud Services $14.1 billion Revenue Beat Nearly $1 billion Yet SpaceX shares are down nearly 12% at the market open.
Wall Street Is Focusing on the Bill Ironically, the market isn’t reacting to SpaceX’s revenue growth. It’s reacting to what management says it will cost to keep growing.
Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion during the quarter, up from $10 billion in the first quarter. Nearly $16 billion of that spending went toward AI infrastructure, and executives told investors those spending levels will remain roughly unchanged through the next two quarters.
That’s a meaningful shift. Investors generally tolerate elevated spending when they believe it is temporary. When management signals that spending will remain elevated for months, however, concerns shift toward cash flow, future financing needs, and whether returns on those investments will justify the expense.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Granted, many AI leaders are making similar bets. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) have all announced record capital spending this year to expand AI capacity. The difference is that those companies generate enormous cash flows from mature businesses that help fund those investments. SpaceX, by contrast, is still early in building that financial cushion.
Tomorrow Could Bring Another Headwind Today’s sell-off may not be the only challenge shareholders face this week. Tomorrow marks the expiration of a major IPO lockup, allowing employees and early investors to begin selling shares for the first time.
According to SpaceX’s SEC filings:
911.5 million shares become eligible to trade. That’s roughly 43% more than the 638.9 million shares issued in the IPO. The company’s free float increases from 4.9% of outstanding shares to 11.8%. Not every newly eligible share will be sold. Many employees and early investors may continue holding their positions because they believe in SpaceX’s long-term prospects.
Even so, markets trade on supply and demand. If even a modest percentage of those newly unlocked shares hits the market, it could create selling pressure that has nothing to do with the company’s operating performance. Additional lockup expirations scheduled for later this year could produce similar waves of volatility.
That helps explain why SpaceX has struggled since going public. Shares have already fallen about 50% from their post-IPO high and now trade near $112, roughly 25% below the $150 opening price and 17% below the $135 IPO offer.
Key Takeaway In short, SpaceX’s first earnings report proved the business is growing at an extraordinary pace. Revenue nearly doubled, AI sales more than tripled sequentially, and the company locked in $14.1 billion of contracted cloud business. Those are exactly the metrics long-term investors wanted to see.
The near-term problem is that the market is focused elsewhere. An $18.4 billion quarterly capital spending bill and the release of 911.5 million previously locked-up shares create two powerful headwinds that could outweigh strong operating results for weeks or even months.
Ultimately, smart investors should separate the business from the stock. The business appears to be executing well. The stock, however, may continue facing pressure as higher spending and a growing share supply work their way through the market. Patience may prove just as valuable as optimism here.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Key Takeaways SPCX narrowed its Q2 loss to 9 cents per share as revenue surged 91.9% to $7.81 billion.AI revenue jumped 247.5% to $2.56 billion, aided by $1.60 billion in new cloud infrastructure sales.Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million as Connectivity revenue climbed 65.8% to $4.29 billion. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) reported a loss of 9 cents per share for the second quarter of 2026, 73.5% narrower year over year. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 26-cent loss by 65.4%.
Revenue surged 91.9% to $7.81 billion and topped the $6.72 billion consensus by 16.3%, led by AI cloud services and Starlink expansion. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million, while nameplate compute reached 1.4 gigawatts.
SPCX Growth Broadens Across SegmentsAll three operating segments posted year-over-year revenue gains. Connectivity remained the largest contributor, while AI recorded the fastest growth and Space benefited from a more favorable customer launch mix.
The revenue mix also shifted toward newer infrastructure services. AI generated nearly one-third of quarterly sales, supported by the initial ramp of cloud agreements. Recurring connectivity operations remained the company’s only segment-level source of operating income.
Connectivity Delivers Operating LeverageConnectivity revenues climbed 65.8% year over year to $4.29 billion. Consumer revenues increased 44.4% to $2.49 billion, while Enterprise & Government revenues more than doubled to $1.81 billion on aviation wins and U.S. government demand.
The segment’s operating income rose 79.4% to $1.66 billion, lifting operating margin about 3 percentage points to 38.6%. Adjusted EBITDA soared 64.1% to $2.60 billion. Average revenue per user was $66, unchanged sequentially and down from $85 a year earlier. Management expects geographic expansion may pressure blended ARPU over time.
AI Cloud Deals Lift ProfitabilityAI revenues jumped 247.5% year over year and 213.1% sequentially to $2.56 billion. New cloud services agreements contributed $1.60 billion of incremental infrastructure revenue, while total contracted cloud sales reached $14.10 billion. Compute capacity increased from 1.0 gigawatt in the first quarter and 0.4 gigawatt a year earlier.
The segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion, reversing from a $276 million loss a year ago. Its operating loss narrowed 49.1% sequentially to $1.26 billion. The filings also noted customer concentration in AI revenues and said cloud agreements generally can be terminated on 90 days’ notice after initial ramp periods.
Starship Spending Pressures SpaceSpace revenues increased 29.0% year over year and 55.4% sequentially to $962 million. The company completed 10 customer launches and 28 internal launches during the quarter, carrying 485 metric tons to orbit. First-half activity totaled 78 launches and 1,041 metric tons.
Higher Starship research and development spending kept the segment in the red. Space recorded an operating loss of $542 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $205 million. Management said Flight 13 met all objectives after quarter-end, supporting plans to deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites on upcoming Starship missions.
Capex Surge Reshapes Cash DeploymentTotal costs and expenses rose 57.8% to $7.96 billion. Research and development spending increased 81.2% to $3.55 billion, reflecting investments across Starship, next-generation satellites and AI infrastructure. Still, the company reduced its consolidated operating loss to $143 million from $970 million and generated adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion.
Capital expenditures reached $18.37 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI. Six-month operating cash flow improved to $3.47 billion, but investing activities used $34.49 billion. Following $85.68 billion of IPO proceeds and a $25 billion bond offering, cash and marketable securities were $100.01 billion, with backlog at $47.46 billion.
SpaceX Sets Ambitious Year-End TargetsManagement expects capital spending in each of the next two quarters to remain near the second-quarter level. The company targets more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year-end, with newly contracted cloud services worth $6.70 billion beginning to ramp in October over a six-month period.
SpaceX believes growth across cloud services, Cursor and its other businesses can support at least $100 billion in annualized revenue run rate by December. Management also expects V3 satellites to deliver a major capacity increase, while next-generation Starlink Mobile service is targeted to begin by the end of 2027.
Zacks RankSpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Upcoming ReleasesKeysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Aug. 18. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.46 per share, suggesting growth of 43.02% from the year-ago reported figure.
Keysight has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 19.44%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 9.46% in the last four reported quarters.
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings Aug. 19. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.33 per share, implying growth of 62.44% from the year-ago reported figure.
Analog Devices has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 31.04%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 5.48% in the last four reported quarters.
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Aug. 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.36 per share, suggesting growth of 35.48% from the year-ago reported figure.
Applied Materials has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 32.44%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 6.06% in the last four reported quarters.
SpaceX reported it lost more than half a billion dollars in its first quarterly report as a public company, but the loss was less than Wall Street expected and revenue soared.
The company run by Elon Musk reported a loss of $541 million, or 9 cents per share, in the three months through June, less than half what financial analysts had expected. Revenue jumped to $7.8 billion, up more than 90% from the year-earlier period.
Musk will field questions from investors and financial analysts soon on a conference call.
Stock in the rocket, satellite communications, and AI company has fallen by roughly half since its June peak shortly after an initial public offering that briefly made Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Subscribe to the Daily newsletter.Fast Company's trending stories delivered to you every day
Investors have knocked the share price down on worries Musk had oversold them on the company’s future prospects for space travel and colonization, among other issues. They’re also bracing for volatile trading as some company insiders get the opportunity to sell shares after the expiration of what’s known as a lockup provision later in the week.
The shares jumped 19% on their first day of trading, making Musk the first-ever trillionaire. The subsequent drop in SpaceX, as well as a decline in the shares of Musk’s electric vehicle company Tesla, have knocked his wealth down to $783 billion, according to Forbes.
Part visionary, part salesman, Musk is likely to be asked on the conference call about when he expects to finish testing SpaceX’s giant Starship rockets that NASA hopes to use to put astronauts on the moon again, his plans for its satellite network, and the prospects of putting football-field-sized data centers in orbit.
SpaceX stock fell after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, dampening an inaugural quarterly report that broadly surpassed Wall Street forecasts. Bloomberg's Danny Lee breaks down the news.
Peter Diamandis, SpaceX investor and XPRIZE Foundation founder, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the first earnings report, why he says the market doesn't know how to value the company, and more.
ToplineSpaceX’s stock once again took a hit on Wednesday after the rocket maker posted its first-ever earnings report, which seemingly spooked investors and analysts after the Elon Musk-led firm announced a sixfold increase in quarterly spending.
Elon Musk’s rocket maker said its quarterly spending surged sixfold.
NurPhoto via Getty Images
Key FactsShares of SpaceX fell 9% to around $114 shortly after trading opened Wednesday, paring back earlier losses to as steep as $109.23 as the stock approached an all-time low of $104.
SpaceX on Tuesday reported quarterly revenue of $7.81 billion and a loss per share of $0.09, beating Wall Street estimates of $6.9 billion and a loss of $0.26, respectively, according to FactSet, as the firm’s net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion.
The rocket maker said it spent $18.3 billion in its second quarter, $15.8 billion of which went toward AI, exceeding estimates of $13.2 billion, as SpaceX’s capital expenditures totaled $28.5 billion in the first half of this year—that marks a sixfold increase over last year’s nearly $7 billion.
Both Musk and Bret Johnsen, SpaceX’s chief financial officer, tried to cool concerns about the ramp-up in spending during an earnings call: Johnsen said “all capex is not the same,” especially when it comes to AI, to which Musk announced to shareholders SpaceX planned to build AI data centers in space using Nvidia chips exclusively.
Musk also said SpaceX now expects revenue to top $1 trillion by 2030 and potentially by 2029, down from his earlier projection for 2031.
how did economists react to spacex earnings?Some brokerages appeared optimistic about SpaceX’s quarterly earnings: JPMorgan analysts, who lifted their price target for shares to $240 from $225, wrote SpaceX is benefiting from “extreme vertical integration” while noting its “pace of change in AI is incredibly fast,” and that a step-up in AI infrastructure and higher monetization could push SpaceX’s AI revenue to $100 billion in 2027. Wells Fargo analysts cut their price target for SpaceX shares to $215 from $230 amid broader caution about its AI spending, noting that SpaceX was “off to an ambitious start” and that revenue projections for 2027 and 2028 were higher than expected, but so were capital expenditure estimates. Kathleen Brooks, research director at the brokerage XTB, told The Wall Street Journal, “The concern for investors is how fast expenditure growth is outpacing revenue growth.”
what to watch forA stray piece of a SpaceX rocket that floated in space over the last year likely crashed into the moon early on Wednesday, the BBC reported, though images of the collision have yet to be processed. The rocket is believed to have crashed near the Einstein Crater, located on the other side of the moon from the Apollo 11 landing site in an area that receives daylight and is visible from Earth.
surprising factIf SpaceX shares fall below $100, that would imply investors saw no value from the rocket maker’s AI business, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote last month. Some already see “zero or negative value” as SpaceX ramps up its spending on space and connectivity amid “largely uncertain economics,” the analysts said.
forbes valuationMusk’s net worth was cut by $64 billion to $719.2 billion in SpaceX’s decline, according to Forbes’ estimates. His fortune swelled by more than $57 billion ahead of SpaceX’s earnings report on Tuesday, and a reduction on Wednesday still has his net worth well above that of Google co-founders Larry Page ($309 billion) and Sergey Brin ($284.9 billion), who rank as the second- and third-richest people in the world, respectively.
key backgroundThe earnings report marks the first quarterly financial update from SpaceX since its historic trading debut in June. SpaceX shares have lost more than half their value since hitting an all-time high above $220 by June 16, when Musk’s fortune topped $1.45 trillion, even as analysts still appeared bullish about the company’s business prospects. Not much has pushed SpaceX shares toward the green, even after a successful Starship test launch last month that later resulted in the stock stumbling by nearly 5%.
further readingForbesElon Musk’s Wealth Sinks Below $700 Billion As SpaceX Rout ExtendsBy Ty Roush
SpaceX stock SPCX fell sharply on Wednesday after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results but disclosed a steep increase in artificial intelligence spending.
The stock dropped as much as 13% on Wednesday before paring some of those losses to trade around 7% lower at the time of writing.
The massive decline today is reversing a two-day rally that had added more than $250 billion to the company's market value earlier in the week.
SpaceX reported a second-quarter loss of 9 cents per share, narrower than the 26-cent loss expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG. Revenue rose to $7.81 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.93 billion.
Despite the stronger-than-expected results, investors focused on the company's accelerating investment in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX said capital expenditures increased sixfold to $18.4 billion during the second quarter, with most of the spending directed toward artificial intelligence initiatives.
AI investment totaled more than $23 billion during the first six months of the year, up from $3.3 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Capital spending also increased across the company's connectivity and space businesses.
The spending comes as investors across the technology sector scrutinize whether companies' multibillion-dollar AI investments are translating into meaningful financial returns.
Investors largely overlooked the earnings beat, focusing instead on the sharp acceleration in AI spending.
During the earnings release, Chief Executive Elon Musk said the company now expects to generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, bringing forward its previous forecast by one year.
SpaceX also forecast more than $100 billion in annual recurring revenue across its businesses by the end of this year, led by growth in cloud services.
Quarterly revenue was supported by the continued expansion of the Starlink satellite internet business, which remains the company's only profitable operating segment.
Investors are also preparing for another potentially significant event on Thursday, when the first tranche of insider lock-up restrictions expires.
The expiration will allow up to 911.5 million shares to become eligible for sale, increasing the number of publicly tradable shares to as many as 1.55 billion from roughly 639 million currently available, according to the company's IPO prospectus.
The scheduled release comes after a volatile trading period in which SpaceX shares have fallen well below their $135 IPO price following their initial post-listing surge.
The company's long history as a private business, together with its acquisition of xAI earlier this year, has left it with a broad shareholder base, many of whom continue to hold substantial unrealised gains despite the recent decline in the share price.
Analysts remain constructiveDespite the market's reaction, several Wall Street firms maintained positive ratings on the stock.
Bank of America said SpaceX exceeded expectations on both revenue and profitability while describing management's communication around the quarter as constructive.
Analyst Ronald Epstein said concerns over elevated capital expenditure and questions about monetising the company's AI and Starlink Mobile initiatives continue to weigh on the shares.
However, he said the firm had become more optimistic about SpaceX's competitive positioning following the second-quarter results.
Bank of America maintained its Buy rating and $235 price target.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $300 price target.
The firm said its 2027 revenue forecast of $102 billion assumes little acceleration beyond the company's target of exceeding $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026 because it expects AI computing pricing to normalise.
The bank said stronger pricing than its base-case assumptions could add roughly $42 billion in AI revenue to its 2027 forecasts.
Deutsche Bank also maintained its Buy rating and $235 price target, saying the company's near-term growth outlook appears stronger than previously expected, driven primarily by AI.
The bank raised its forecasts while noting that capital expenditure is likely to increase further in 2027 as SpaceX seeks to add at least another 3 gigawatts of computing capacity.
A section of Wall Street analysts have updated their outlook on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results.
SpaceX delivered a double beat in its first quarter as a public company, with revenue up 92% Y-o-Y to $7.81 billion, yet the stock sold off after hours. The metric I think matters most is revenue per watt of installed compute, which went from ~$1.90 to ~$6.27 annualized in a single quarter while nameplate capacity grew only 40%. Musk guesses mature monetization lands between $30 and $50 per watt, which implies 5X to 8X of headroom on hardware SpaceX already owns and paid for.
Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives & Co., examines the first quarterly report from SpaceX as the company disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?
Download this episode on Apple Podcasts/Spotify or listen below:
Shares fall as SpaceX ramps up AI and Starship spending. (0:17) AMD delivers another strong quarter but investors want faster growth. (1:28) Michael Burry warns markets could be nearing a major peak. (2:00)
SpaceX (SPCX) is slumping in premarket trading after its first earnings report as a public company revealed an extraordinary surge in capital spending as it accelerates investments in AI infrastructure and its Starship rocket program.
Capital expenditures climbed to $18.4B in Q2 from $10.1B in Q1 and more than six times the $2.8B spent a year earlier. Nearly $15.8B was invested in the company's AI business as it expanded computing capacity and built infrastructure supporting new cloud services agreements. Additional spending went toward Starlink satellites and Starship development.
The spending spree came alongside another quarter of strong operating performance. SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81B, up 92% year over year and ahead of the $6.82B Wall Street consensus.
SpaceX is also preparing to challenge the largest U.S. wireless carriers by pairing its satellite communications network with a nationwide terrestrial mobile network.
On the earnings call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said: "The big three in the United States, AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile (TMUS), are roughly a $600B-a-year market. I anticipate us being able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better."
Also in the AI trade, AMD (AMD) is lower in premarket trading, with investors wanting more than a beat-and-raise quarter after the stock's 130% rally year to date.
SA analyst Jonathan Weber said revenue and earnings growth remained strong, but AMD "continues to grow at a slower pace compared to Nvidia (NVDA) while trading at a much higher valuation."
Looking ahead, AMD expects Q3 revenue of $12.7B to $13.3B, with the $13B midpoint comfortably above the $12.51B consensus. Adjusted gross margin is forecast at 56%.
And "Big Short" investor Michael Burry said he continues to believe "it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall, but the S&P 500 (SP500) making new highs likely will bring new money into the market."
"Remember, the market going up on falling volatility forces vol-targeting funds to leverage up, and brings leverage from other momentum strategies into play," he wrote on Substack.
Despite the rally, Burry said he continues to hold short positions in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), Micron (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Caterpillar (CAT), Palantir (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA) and Applied Materials (AMAT).
He said he remains confident in the long-term outlook for those trades, though he would cut his losses if they moved decisively against him. All remain profitable except for his bet against Nvidia.
"Again, shorting is not for everyone," Burry wrote. "I must short. Most should not."
Now here's what's trending on Seeking Alpha:
Samsung is unveiling its next-generation AI memory technology.
Uber (UBER) and Wayve have secured London licenses for autonomous ride trials.
And Palantir (PLTR) short sellers were taken to the woodshed, absorbing roughly $3B in losses after Tuesday's 30% rally.
In premarket trading
Stock market action looks a little tired after the recent technology melt-up, with futures on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (US100:IND) and Dow (INDU) pointing to a mixed open.
The bond market is also seeing limited moves, with the Treasury yield curve flattening slightly.
On the economic calendar
8:15 a.m. July ADP Employment Report 9:45 a.m. S&P Global July PMI Composite Final 10:00 a.m. July ISM Services Index
CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 13: In this handout provided by NASA, a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket with the Psyche spacecraft onboard is launched from Launch Complex 39A, October 13, 2023 at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. NASA's Psyche spacecraft will travel to a metal-rich asteroid by the same name orbiting the Sun between Mars and Jupiter to study its composition. The spacecraft also carries the agency's Deep Space Optical Communications technology demonstration, which will test laser communications beyond the Moon. (Photo by Aubrey Gemignani/NASA via Getty Images)
NASA via Getty Images
SpaceX stock fell 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday despite beating revenue and loss expectations in the company’s first quarterly report as a public company, according to CNBC. Since peaking on June 16, the stock has lost 49% of its value.
The reason for the post-earnings drop is clear: SpaceX – which consists of a profitable satellite Internet service provider and money-losing rocket launch and AI units, as I wrote last month -- spent way more on AI capital expenditures than investors expected, per CNBC.
That might have been acceptable had SpaceX not failed most of the stock market’s four tests for AI cloud services providers – which became clear as investors slammed Meta while rewarding Amazon and Microsoft for their latest results.
These tests -- the market’s way of assessing whether companies are getting an adequate return on their AI investments -- include the following:
Is demand already contracted or capacity-constrained? Is AI-related revenue accelerating? Are operating profit and cash generation holding up? Does management provide a credible bridge from capex to returns?To be sure, AI related revenue grew 247% so the company passed the second test. However, with a $1.3 billion loss and AI capex of $15.8 billion, SpaceX clearly failed the third test. The market’s reaction suggests the evidence for affirmative answers to the first and fourth tests were not compelling.
Things do not look great for SpaceX investors. Although CEO Elon Musk confidently predicted $100 billion in 2026 revenue, according to Bloomberg, the publication forecasts $38.5 billion in revenue for 2026. One analyst set a price target of $62 – suggesting the stock is worth roughly half its current price as some 119 million shares could be sold by insiders on August 6.
MORE FOR YOU
SpaceX’s Quarterly ReportSpaceX is a profitable satellite communications business saddled to a reusable rocket launch service and an AI and social networks both of which lose money.
SpaceX exceeded second quarter analyst views on revenue, net loss, and loss per share. Revenue rose 92% to $7.81 billion exceeding the consensus estimates by 14%; its net loss fell 46% to $541 million; and the nine-cent loss per share was 14 cents per share less bad than the analyst consensus.
SpaceX’s Connectivity unit — which operates the Starlink communications business — saw revenue increase 66% to $4.29 billion and reached 12 million users – generating $1.7 billion in operating income.
However, price competition from Amazon Leo and others contributed to a drop in average revenue per user down by a third from $99 a month in 2023 to $66 a month in Q1 2026.
The company’s two cash-burning units are as follows:
Space (launch + Starship) which posted 29% higher revenue to $962 million along with a $542 million operating loss.The AI segment’s revenue soared 237% to $2.56 billion and lost $1.3 billion. The market reacted most strongly to SpaceX’s 557% pop in Q2 capital expenditures. In Q2, capex rose from $2,8 billion to $18.4 billion – of that $15.8 billion went to AI infrastructure – 21% more than analysts expected.
Moreover, SpaceX provided no formal financial guidance.
Why SpaceX Stock Is FallingAI capex sends stock prices up as long as the company’s capacity is sold out, there is a visible backlog, product revenue is accelerating and profitability is preserved.
That is what sent Amazon stock up July 31. Investors bought the stock on evidence AWS revenue grew faster than did capex. They seemed to embrace CEO Andy Jassy’s statement that once revenue growth outpaces incremental capex growth, the resulting cash flow and returns become compelling, CNBC reported.
Revenue for AWS rose 37% to $42.2 billion — six percentage points above consensus — while operating income of $16.6 billion yielded 39.4% operating margin, up about 6.5 percentage points.
AWS also disclosed a contracted backlog of $496 billion and a $25 billion annual run rate for both the company’s AI and in-house silicon units (Trainium, Graviton).
By contrast, investors sell when cash flow deteriorates faster than measurable revenue. SpaceX demonstrated demand growth and insufficient evidence that its AI capex will produce utilization and returns along the lines of Amazon and Microsoft.
Meta – which is trying to build an AI cloud service – saw its stock fall as it is in a predicament similar to SpaceX’s.
Where Do Analysts See SpaceX Stock Going?Wall Street sees good times ahead for SpaceX investors. With an average price target of $233.14, 31 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for the company see 86% upside, according to TipRanks.
The bull case is that SpaceX is becoming a “vertically integrated infrastructure platform spanning launch, broadband and compute,” according to Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale.
His $800 a share price target rests on his argument that lower-cost access to orbit, Starlink cash generation and AI infrastructure create a reinforcing flywheel producing more than $837 billion of revenue and $696 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by 2031.
The bear case – with a price target of $62 – hinges on the idea that the current valuation is based on unproven achievements. Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens assigns SpaceX a one-star rating __ meaning “very high” uncertainty.
Owens gives a 7% probability to the Moonshot scenario in which the company achieves all the IPO’s published targets – such as the $28.5 trillion total addressable market estimate.
If you believe SpaceX will exceed investor estimates for contracted AI demand, segment margins, capex discipline and a credible path to free cash flow, buy the stock.
If you are uncertain, wait to see what happens after Thursday when up to 119 million SpaceX shares held by insiders hit the market.
U.S. stock futures were mixed this morning, with the Dow futures gaining around 100 points on Wednesday.
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year. The revenue total beat a Street consensus estimate of $6.93 billion according to data from Benzinga Pro. The company reported a loss of nine cents per share, beating a Street consensus estimate of a loss of 24 cents per share.
SpaceX shares dipped 10.3% to $112.48 in pre-market trading.
Here are some other stocks moving lower in pre-market trading.
Photo via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +9.43%) reported strong revenue growth in the second quarter of the year, and lofty forward guidance.
But the stock traded roughly 11.2% lower in pre-market hours, as of 8:05 a.m. ET, with investors worried about the company’s hefty spending plans.
Total revenue of over $7.8 billion grew nearly 92% year over year and roughly 66% from the first quarter. The company generated an operating loss of $143 million, a significant improvement from the prior quarter and year-over-year. Segment-adjusted EBITDA also nearly tripled from a year ago.
CEO Elon Musk, on a conference call, told Wall Street analysts that the company expects to reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December of this year and $1 trillion of annual revenue by 2030, a year ahead of the company’s previous guidance.
In fact, Musk said there’s a “non-zero chance of that being in 2029.”
Even at SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion market cap, this guidance, if achievable, makes the stock look quite appealing. Here’s why it’s getting crushed anyway.
Image source: The White House.
Capex soarsDuring the quarter, capital expenditures soared to nearly $18.4 billion, up from roughly $10 billion and $2.8 billion in the previous quarter and second quarter of 2025, respectively.
SpaceX’s CFO Bret Johnsen also told analysts that they can expect capex to be at similar levels in the next two quarters.
Johnsen said that capex for artificial intelligence compute is seeing less than a one-year payback. SpaceX has already announced massive deals with Anthropic and Google on this front, generating over $2 billion per month in revenue.
So, if the company can continue to scale its data center compute business, it makes it easier to see how SpaceX will make these giant revenue leaps over the next several months and years.
Musk also reiterated that orbital data centers could be closer than people think. He said the Starmind AI satellites, which will be built with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips, are expected to begin launching next year.
Today's Change
(
9.43
%) $
10.80
Current Price
$
125.33
This could greatly expand SpaceX’s compute capacity, which Musk already expects to be two gigawatts (GW) by the end of this year and closer to 10 GW by the end of 2027. The higher the company’s capacity, the faster it will grow revenue by renting it to companies running AI solutions and large language models.
While it all sounds great, there’s considerable dispute over how much orbital data centers will cost and the tech required to bring them online. Investors are also likely skeptical of Musk’s timeline.
As with other large AI stocks, investors are only assigning credit to companies with massive capex plans that provide tangible evidence that the returns will materialize in the financials.
A big tranche of insider shares can be soldSpaceX shares have been volatile over the past few days. On the day of SpaceX’s earnings, the stock climbed roughly 10%.
It has now given back those gains, but this could be partly mechanical, too, because a large tranche of insider shares are now eligible for sale.
According to SpaceX’s registration statement, 20% of shares held by insiders, such as employees, and subject to the company’s lock-up provision, will be eligible for sale on the second full day of trading following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings results.
That means these shares can be sold starting on Aug 6. That number would have been 30% if SpaceX stock had traded at least 30% above the company’s $135 per share listed initial public offering price. As of this writing, it’s still well below that level.
So this dynamics may also be pressuring shares, as the market prepares for more supply.
Ultimately, I think investors would be right to apply a healthy dose of skepticism to Musk’s guidance, especially with the spending coming in so heavy right now.
If it becomes clear that the company can meet its guidance or that its orbital data centers will become operational next year, the stock becomes a clearer buy.
Mark Mahaney, Evercore head of internet research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss SpaceX's quarterly earnings results, the company's AI spending surge, and more.
Space Exploration Technologies delivered exceptional Q2 FY2026 results, with revenue up 91.9% to $7.81 billion and significant improvements in profitability metrics. Despite stellar growth across all segments, SPCX shares fell post-earnings due to extreme valuation concerns, maintaining a 'strong sell' rating. Connectivity (Starlink) led performance, doubling subscribers to 12 million, though ARPU declined due to international expansion and lower-priced plans.
SummarySpaceX aka Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has followed a classic post-IPO pattern: sharp selloff, then potential for prolonged basing and accumulation before any sustained upside.SPCX reported TTM revenue of $23.0bn, up 19% QoQ, but remains deeply cashflow negative (TTM operating cashflow minus capex: -$32.3bn) as it pursues aggressive growth.With $60.6bn net cash and a $47.5bn order book (2x TTM revenue), and further debt financing underway, SPCX can sustain cash burn for several years.We rate SPCX "Do Nothing"— awaiting confirmation of a durable accumulation range for building a long-term position - but note that its volatility likely makes it an excellent trading stock.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Growth Investor Pro get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More »DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for U.S. recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by, any UK recipients. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied
17.56K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, PLTR.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
"To be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That’s what we’d achieve if we basically did nothing," Musk said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call. "I think it may be higher than that. It probably will be higher than that."
SpaceX’s $100B ARR Claim Raises the BarOn the surface, Musk’s comment appears to imply that the milestone is already within reach. But the underlying math suggests the remaining climb is anything but effortless.
An ARR figure reflects the revenue a business would generate over a full year if its current monthly pace continued. A $100 billion ARR implies monthly revenue of roughly $8.3 billion.
SpaceX reported $7.8 billion of second-quarter revenue, equivalent to an average of about $2.6 billion per month over the three-month period. That means the company would need to be generating revenue at more than three times its current quarterly monthly average by December to support a $100 billion annualized run rate.
Why Management Thinks the Ramp Is Already UnderwayManagement’s confidence rests on the idea that much of that acceleration has already been locked in rather than on new business that still needs to be won.
CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX has already signed another $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue during the opening weeks of the third quarter, with those contracts beginning to ramp in October.
"We’ve already contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year," he said.
Johnsen also said the company believes it is on track, "including contribution from Cursor," to reach the $100 billion ARR milestone by year-end.
AI Is Doing the Heavy LiftingSpaceX’s fastest-growing business remains AI infrastructure.
AI segment revenue climbed 247% year over year to $2.6 billion, helped by new cloud hosting agreements and growing adoption of Grok subscriptions. The initial ramp from new cloud services agreements alone contributed $1.6 billion of AI infrastructure revenue during the quarter, while SpaceX ended Q2 with 1.4 gigawatts of compute capacity and expects to exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end.
Whether SpaceX ultimately reaches a $100 billion ARR run rate by December remains to be seen.
But if it does, it won’t be because the company “did nothing.” It will be because contracts already signed, AI infrastructure already built and capacity already coming online begin flowing through the income statement over the next few months.
Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock plummeted 9.92% in overnight trading from its latest closing price of $125.33 to $112.90 following what, on the surface level, appears to be a triumphant first-ever quarterly earnings report.
SpaceX stock price one-day chart. Source: Google Indeed, Elon Musk’s newer public company succeeded in beating expectations in essentially every category.
SpaceX’s revenue came in at $7.81 billion – $6.93 billion was expected – with the ‘Space’ segment reaching $962 million – analysts forecasted $835 million – connectivity hitting $4.29 billion – against $3.83 billion – and artificial intelligence (AI) bringing in $2.56 billion – versus a $2.18 billion estimate.
Additionally, though Elon Musk’s space, AI, internet, and social media firm recorded a loss per share during the second quarter (Q2), it came well below the expected $0.26 and at $0.09.
Why SpaceX stock is crashing despite earnings beat Meanwhile, SpaceX overshooting Wall Street forecasts in one particular category is, arguably, one of the key reasons for the extended-session plunge.
Specifically, while analysts were expecting the company to burn $13.22 billion in capital expenditures (CapEx), the firm spent more than $18 billion in CapEx, with the primary beneficiary being AI infrastructure.
Under the circumstances, SPCX stock tanking following the earnings is consistent with the wider recent trend. Shareholders have grown increasingly anxious about AI-related expenditures as big tech has yet to transparently report any meaningful profits from the technology.
Even SpaceX’s impressive $2.56 billion in sales was substantially boosted by agreements to rent out compute to Anthropic and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) in agreements that can be expected to, once fully ramped up, bring in approximately $6.5 billion in quarterly revenue.
Still, even these deals represent a pain point since, on the one hand, their existence signals that SpaceX’s limited capacity is more than the firm needs for xAI and, on the other hand, reinforces that there are precious few sources of demand.
More critical analysts and observers have estimated that OpenAI and Anthropic represent the only meaningful AI compute users, with the presence of either one in data center lease agreements only reinforcing the notion.
Is SpaceX stock a good buy after earnings beat Meanwhile, SPCX stock appears more likely to extend the downtrend it entered after the earnings than to enjoy a bullish reversal as in the August 4 regular session.
Since the initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX shares have been suffering from several powerful headwinds that were successfully held at bay by hype only briefly.
Though Wall Street analysts and Elon Musk repeatedly voiced their belief that the company’s sales can explode by 2030 and 2040 and maintained that SPCX will plausibly be the world’s first $10 trillion company, in 2026 the mismatch between revenue and valuation remains vast.
SPCX stock price performance since the SpaceX IPO. Source: Google Additionally, SpaceX has been drawing criticism for its odd IPO design featuring uncommonly low float and unorthodoxly early insider unlocks, with both arguably skewing share prices and both due to play a larger role already in August.
Under the circumstances and with the imminent insider unlocks, SPCX stock appears more likely to fall to new lows in the short and mid-term than to reach again toward its all-time high (ATH).
Wall Street has witnessed its fair share of history in 2026. The iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +1.71%), benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC +1.79%), and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +2.59%) reached all-time highs, and the Federal Reserve got a new chief in Kevin Warsh.
But the most headline-making moment of the year is, arguably, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +9.43%) going public on June 12. Elon Musk's artificial intelligence and space economy titan rewrote Wall Street's record books by raising $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment. It also quickly vaulted to a nearly $3 trillion valuation before (completely) retracing its post-IPO gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
Yesterday, Aug. 4, SpaceX hit its latest milestone: its first quarterly earnings report as a public company.
Tomorrow, Aug. 6, will feature another watershed moment for SpaceX. In my view, it'll mark the start of the greatest fleecing of retail investors we've ever witnessed on Wall Street.
Early release-eligible insiders will be free to sell some of their shares SpaceX differed from the typical stock market IPO in two ways: its staggered and accelerated lockup period for early release-eligible insiders, and the sheer number of shares it sold in its IPO.
Companies going public usually prohibit insiders, such as early investors, board members, and high-ranking executives, from selling their shares for the first 180 calendar days after an IPO. This is done to prevent insiders from taking advantage of early gains/IPO buzz.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 SpaceX completely ignored tradition. Its lengthy registration statement (S-1) outlines a performance- and time-based schedule allowing early release-eligible insiders to sell some of their shares. The first milestone, which unlocks a whopping 20% of early release-eligible insider shares (about 911.5 million shares), is the second trading day after the first quarterly earnings release (i.e., Aug. 6).
Additional milestones include calendar days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135, and 180 after the IPO, which unlock 7% of early release-eligible insider shares at each event, and the second trading day after SpaceX's November earnings report that unlocks another 911.5 million shares.
The second differentiating factor is that Musk's company only sold approximately 555.6 million shares for its IPO. While this is a nominally large figure, it represents less than 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. Typically, companies going public sell 10% to 25% of their shares for their IPO.
SpaceX's historically low float has helped buoy its share price through its first nearly eight weeks as a public company. Fast entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 provided tens of billions of dollars in purchasing demand from passive funds tracking these indexes.
🚨YOU ARE THE EXIT LIQUIDITY
You are about to be offered the most expensive IPO in modern history.
-- Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 (@ThierryBorgeat) May 21, 2026 However, waving the green flag for early release-eligible insiders to begin selling their shares on Aug. 6, and opening those floodgates a little wider every two or three weeks through mid-December, is going to flood the market with newly tradable shares. More importantly, it'll afford insiders the opportunity to dump their stock on unsuspecting retail investors.
SpaceX isn't profitable on a recurring basis and runs a highly capital-intensive business that's prone to delays. Eligible insiders having the opportunity to cash out under these circumstances may kick-start the greatest wealth transfer (and fleecing) in Wall Street's history: from retail investors to corporate insiders.
SummaryCompaniesQuarterly capital spending reaches $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion on AI infrastructureNew compute capital has less than one-year payback, CFO Johnsen saysSpaceX signed $6.7 billion in additional cloud contracts since end of Q2Executives expect year-end compute capacity to exceed two gigawattsShares fall 9% in premarket tradingAug 5 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab touted faster-than-expected returns from its AI spending on its first-ever earnings call as a public company.
But investors remained concerned about how long its profitable Starlink business could continue to bankroll costly investments in data centers and Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab chips.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to global sports news. Sign up here.
The company's shares fell 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, dropping well below their $135 IPO price in less than two months since the company's blockbuster debut.
SpaceX reported AI revenue that more than tripled from a year earlier and disclosed several new cloud computing agreements, even as quarterly capital spending on AI climbed to $15.8 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said the economics of those investments were improving rapidly, but also signaled that AI spending would remain elevated.
"The current economics have translated into a less than one-year payback on our new capital deployments for compute," Johnsen said, adding that SpaceX had signed another $6.7 billion in cloud computing contracts since the end of the second quarter and was on track to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of the year.
That stands in contrast to traditional data center investments, which typically take years to recover their upfront costs.
"Elon has continued to surprise investors on what innovation and technology can do, but there has always been a mismatch in terms of the time frame of when that execution is going to occur," David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said, referring to Musk's often-rosy outlook at his EV company Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab that he has regularly missed.
"I believe the numbers. I would say that yes, those numbers are aggressive, but it's not a fantasy. The pieces exist, they just require flawless execution."
A live feed shows SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
THE AI PAYBACK BETThe comments at the post-earnings call marked a shift in the investment debate surrounding SpaceX.
Before the earnings release, investors largely viewed Starlink's growing cash flows as the primary source of funding for the company's AI ambitions. Management is now arguing that AI infrastructure itself is beginning to generate enough revenue to finance further expansion.
To be sure, the company spent about $18.4 billion on capital expenditures during the quarter, roughly a fifth of the $85.7 billion it raised in its June IPO, and remained deeply free cash flow negative as it continued investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX's AI business generated $2.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, up more than three-fold from a year earlier although it remained loss-making on an operating basis.
Even so, the company is not easing off its spending. Johnsen said capital expenditures over the next two quarters would likely remain at levels similar to the second quarter as SpaceX continues expanding AI compute capacity, Starship production and next-generation Starlink satellites.
"New compute capital monetizes so fast it behaves more like cost of goods than capex," said Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager of the Founders 100 ETF, which holds SpaceX shares.
SpaceX executives said demand for AI computing continues to outstrip supply and that they expect to end the year with more than two gigawatts of compute capacity. If demand remains strong enough to keep that infrastructure fully utilized, AI could increasingly fund its own growth rather than relying on Starlink's cash generation.
"The relationship between capex and revenue is unsustainable, so capex has to fall or revenue has to grow tremendously, and that is where faith in Musk's vision, engineering leadership and execution track record separates the bulls from the bears," said Drew Cupps, portfolio manager at Polen Capital, which holds a position in SpaceX.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Sweta Singh and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
By You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
and Lloyd Lee You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
SpaceX's AI bill is nearly as large as its rockets. SERGIO FLORES/AFP via Getty Images As an abandoned SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, Elon Musk's science-fiction ambitions are on their own collision course with Wall Street.
SpaceX shares fell as much as 11% in after-hours trading despite the company delivering an earnings beat on Tuesday, as investors expressed anxiety over the astronomical bill for Musk's vision of an AI-powered, space-bound future.
The rocket company, which raised a record-breaking $86 billion in its June IPO, reported that quarterly revenue had soared 92% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion, above analyst expectations.
SpaceX also nearly halved its net loss to $541 million, and reported surging revenue from its AI business after striking a series of compute deals with Anthropic and Google.
It's the amount the company is spending on AI infrastructure, however, that is making investors jittery: nearly $16 billion for the quarter, well above the $13 billion Wall Street was expecting and more than double the previous quarter.
SpaceX is the latest tech giant to face backlash over its AI spending in recent weeks, with Tesla and Google's shares also falling after they reported higher-than-expected capex spending.
'I know this sounds totally nuts'On the analyst call following the earnings, Musk and SpaceX's other executives justified the eye-watering spending as necessary to achieve the cosmic goals that were a staple of the company's pitch to investors in its record-breaking public offering.
The world's richest man suggested that Starlink, SpaceX's booming connectivity business, would soar to new heights by providing bandwidth for humanoid robots — presumably built by Tesla — on Earth and beyond.
"Using robots on the moon to scale up manufacturing on the moon — which sounds super sci-fi right now, but it's going to happen — will enable us to build the mass accelerator on the moon," Musk told investors. A mass accelerator is a proposed electromagnetic launch slingshot used to catapult objects into space.
"If you have a mass accelerator on the moon, I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably scale to a thousand times the economy of Earth in terms of intelligence launched to space, maybe even a million times," the former trillionaire added.
Elon Musk has out-of-this-world ambitions for SpaceX. Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images Musk predicted that SpaceX could hit $1 trillion in revenue as early as 2029, bringing the target forward from 2031, and said the company plans to begin launching its orbital data centers, which SpaceX has dubbed Starmind, next year.
"This is not some sort of far future distant thing," he added.
CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX's overall capex spend would likely be "very similar" for the next two quarters — implying that it could reach $65 billion this year — but added that SpaceX's AI infrastructure was paying for itself almost as quickly as the company can build it.
"Specifically on the AI compute side, we're able to deploy capital in such a way that we're getting less than a one-year payback," Johnsen said.
In a note on Wednesday, UBS analysts raised revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 on the back of the outperformance of the company's AI business, and wrote that SpaceX was "hitting on all cylinders."
SpaceX stock's bumpy rideInvestor nerves over rising AI bills have only added to the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX's share price, which is now trading about 16% below the IPO price after collapsing over the past month.
The volatility is likely to continue, with around $100 billion worth of shares set to become available for sale on Thursday after the expiry of the first lock-up period for early SpaceX investors and employees.
Even with the uncertainty, SpaceX's first earnings as a public company were a reminder that the company's underlying business is still formidable. Revenue for Starlink, SpaceX's main moneymaker, came in well ahead of Wall Street's expectations, and the company said that enterprise and government revenue for Starlink grew by more than 108% year-over-year in the last quarter.
SpaceX is also coming off two successful launches of its massive Starship rocket, which is critical for Musk's ambitious vision for moving data centers and manufacturing into orbit.
Musk pointed out on the analyst call that even without Starship, SpaceX delivers vastly more material into orbit than the rest of the world combined. The billionaire told investors that SpaceX's engineering prowess meant that its competitors building data centers had little chance of competing, on Earth or in space.
"This is like, frankly, the New York Yankees going in and playing a little league team," said Musk. "It's kind of ridiculous."
Read next
Tom Carter You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Lloyd Lee You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
SummarySpaceX reported a 92% YoY revenue surge to $7.8B, led by Starlink’s profitability, but faces scrutiny over outsized capital expenditures.Starlink remains SPCX’s profit engine, while AI and Space segments are high-growth but loss-making, raising concerns about sustainability and capital allocation.SPCX’s $18.4B quarterly capex—2.4x revenue—was partially offset by $14.1B in new AI compute contracts, yet future margin realization remains uncertain.With 911.5M insider shares unlocking in this week and an EV/sales multiple of ~38x, I rate SPCX a Hold, pending capex moderation and AI margin improvement. Sven Piper/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Introduction In its first-ever quarter as a public company, SpaceX (SPCX) delivered nearly everything the bulls wanted, yet the market couldn't come to terms with it, which indicates that the discussion was never about
331 Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Vesmírná a AI společnost SpaceX zveřejnila své vůbec první kvartální výsledky jako veřejně obchodovaná společnost. Tržby ve 2Q ve výši 7,81 mld. USD meziročně vzrostly o 92 % a výrazně překonaly očekávání 6,81 mld. USD, ztráta na akcii 0,09 USD byla nižší než odhadovaných 0,24 USD. Trh se ale zaměřil na vysoké kapitálové výdaje, které ve druhém kvartále vyskočily na 18,37 mld. USD.
Výsledky společnosti SpaceX (SPCX) za 2Q 2026 2Q 2026 Konsensus 2Q 2026 2Q 2025 Tržby (mld. USD) 7,81 6,81 4,07 Čistý zisk (mld. USD) -0,54 -- -1,01 Zisk na akcii (EPS, USD/akcie) -0,09 -0,24 -0,34 Výsledky za 2Q 2026 Celkové tržby meziročně vzrostly o 92 % na 7,81 mld. USD, přičemž meziročně rostly všechny tři segmenty.
Tržby SpaceX ve 2Q dle segmentu
(mld. USD) Segment Tržby Konsensus Meziroční změna Vesmír 0,96 0,87 +29 % Konektivita 4,29 3,88 +66 % AI 2,56 2,08 +247 % Očištěný zisk EBITDA meziročně vzrostl o 191 % na 3,54 mld. USD a překonal odhad 2 mld. USD.
Provozní ztráta dosáhla 143 mil. USD oproti loňským 970 mil. USD.
Čistá ztráta činila 541 mil. USD, tedy o 467 mil. USD méně než před rokem.
Náklady na výzkum a vývoj se meziročně zvýšily o 81,2 % na 3,55 mld. USD, což je méně, než analytici čekali (4,39 mld. USD).
Kapitálové výdaje dosáhly 18,37 mld. USD, z toho 15,83 mld. USD připadlo na segment AI. Trh očekával 18,58 mld. USD. Ve 2Q 2025 činily 2,83 mld. USD.
Výsledky jednotlivých segmentů Vesmír
Tržby vesmírného segmentu vzrostly o 29 % meziročně a o 55 % mezikvartálně na 962 mil. USD díky vyššímu počtu startů pro velké zákazníky a příznivější skladbě zákazníků. Wall Street očekávala 873,7 mil. USD. Provozní ztráta segmentu se prohloubila na 542 mil. USD z loňských 369 mil. USD. Firma to odůvodnila akcelerací investic do programu Starship. Očištěný zisk EBITDA segmentu skončil ve ztrátě 205 mil. USD, což je ale lepší než trhem očekávaná ztráta 409,9 mil. USD.
Ve druhém kvartále proběhlo 38 startů (odhad 43) a na oběžnou dráhu bylo dopraveno 485 tun nákladu (odhad 581 tun). Za celé pololetí to bylo 78 startů a 1 041 tun, přičemž většina kapacity byla alokována na budování konstelace Starlink.
Konektivita
Jedinému ziskovému segmentu společnosti vzrostly tržby o 66 % meziročně a o 32 % mezikvartálně na 4,29 mld. USD, nad očekávanými 3,88 mld. USD. Spotřebitelské tržby vzrostly o 44 % meziročně, tržby od firemních a vládních zákazníků o 108 %. Provozní zisk se zvýšil o 79 % na 1,66 mld. USD, očištěný zisk EBITDA o 64 % na 2,60 mld. USD.
Počet předplatitelů Starlinku dosáhl ke konci června 12,0 mil., což je meziročně dvojnásobek a mezikvartální přírůstek 1,7 mil. Trh odhadoval 12,19 mil. Průměrný výnos na uživatele (ARPU) zůstal na 66 USD měsíčně, stejně jako v 1Q 2026, meziročně ale klesl z 85 USD. SpaceX podepsal velkou smlouvu s American Airlines, službu aktivoval u dalších aerolinek včetně Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia a Aer Lingus a spustil partnerství Starlink Mobile s operátory SoftBank, NTT Docomo a Spark NZ.
V rámci programu Starshield získala společnost víceleté americké vládní kontrakty v objemu přes 6 mld. USD, primárně ze dvou velkých zakázek Space Force.
AI
Nejrychleji rostoucím a zároveň investičně nejnáročnějším segmentem je umělá inteligence. Tržby vzrostly o 247 % meziročně a o 213 % mezikvartálně na 2,56 mld. USD, nad očekávanými 2,08 mld. USD, taženy především výnosy z nových smluv o cloudových službách a růstem předplatného Grok a X. Provozní ztráta se oproti 1Q 2026 zúžila o 49 % na 1,26 mld. USD, tedy zhruba polovinu trhem očekávané ztráty 2,39 mld. USD. Očištěný zisk EBITDA segmentu dosáhla 1,15 mld. USD. Kapitálové výdaje segmentu dosáhly 15,83 mld. USD.
Výpočetní kapacita se rozšířila na 1,4 GW z 1,0 GW v 1Q 2026, a to díky pokračující výstavbě datového centra Colossus II. SpaceX uzavřel několik smluv o cloudových službách v celkovém objemu 14,1 mld. USD nasmlouvaných tržeb, které ve druhém kvartále přinesly 1,6 mld. USD dodatečných tržeb z AI infrastruktury.
Vedení uvedlo, že firma má zatím ve třetím čtvrtletí nasmlouváno 6,7 mld. USD. Mezi zákazníky patří například Google a Anthropic.
V červnu společnost oznámila akvizici vývojáře nástroje Cursor za 60 mld. USD s cílem posílit nabídku pro firemní zákazníky. Dokončení transakce se očekává ve třetím kvartále.
Komentář vedení „Rok 2026 byl zatím přelomový a druhý kvartál ukázal skutečnou sílu SpaceX. Růst tržeb zrychlil ve všech našich obchodních segmentech a dosáhli jsme silné provozní páky s výrazným rozšířením marží, které táhly nové smlouvy na výpočetní výkon pro AI. Naše bezkonkurenční pozice ve startech, růst počtu předplatitelů Starlinku, nová partnerství s firemními a vládními zákazníky a špičková AI infrastruktura podtrhují naši schopnost dosahovat smysluplného měřítka a přinášet atraktivní výnosy. Jako nově veřejně obchodovaná společnost s potěšením vítáme naši širokou základnu akcionářů a držitelů dluhopisů. Druhý kvartál jsme zakončili se 100 mld. USD v hotovosti, peněžních ekvivalentech a obchodovatelných cenných papírech a s backlogem ve výši 47,5 mld. USD. Tato finanční síla nám dává značný prostor investovat do Starship, do satelitů Starlink Broadband a Mobile a do naší AI platformy při zachování disciplinovaného rámce dlouhodobé alokace kapitálu,“ uvedl finanční ředitel Bret Johnsen.
Generální ředitel Elon Musk na konferenčním hovoru zopakoval svou predikci, že SpaceX dosáhne do konce roku anualizovaných tržeb (ARR) 100 mld. USD. „Těch 100 miliard ARR v prosinci není otazník. To je to, čeho bychom dosáhli, kdybychom v podstatě nedělali nic," uvedl.
Prezidentka SpaceX Gwynne Shotwell představila plán konkurovat přímo americkým mobilním operátorům doplněním satelitní služby o pozemní infrastrukturu. „Předpokládám, že budeme schopni získat docela dost jejich zákazníků, protože si myslím, že naše služba bude lepší," řekla s odkazem na AT&T, Verizon a T-Mobile US.
Pohled analytiků Analytik Ken Herbert z RBC Capital Markets vnímá výsledky pozitivně. Společnost podle něj doručila jak na úrovni tržeb, tak zisku, což podle něj může zvednout očekávání investorů ohledně schopnosti SpaceX plnit krátkodobé finanční cíle.
Analytici z Vital Knowledge uvedli, že tržby a EBITDA jsou skvělé, ale čísla hotovostních toků jsou dost ošklivá, jak firma masivně investuje do AI byznysu. Poznamenávají, že je to právě nadšení z potenciálu AI, co táhne většinu tržní kapitalizace akcie. Dodávají, že dalším potenciálním negativem, které stojí za zmínku, jsou snadné výstupní klauzule obsažené v dohodách o cloudové infrastruktuře, které xAI uzavřela s Anthropic a Googlem.
Analytik Adam Jonas z Morgan Stanley uvedl, že SpaceX naznačuje podobnou úroveň kapitálových výdajů na kvartál po zbytek roku, což implikuje dodatečných zhruba 18 mld. USD kapitálových výdajů ve druhém pololetí nad rámec jeho předchozí prognózy. Očekává, že konsensuální prognózy pro následujících 12 až 18 měsíců mírně vzrostou.
Analytik Alexander Potter z Piper Sandler uvedl, že slabost akcií SpaceX jde na vrub konce lock-up období (lhůty, po kterou nesmějí zaměstnanci a předchozí investoři po IPO prodávat své akcie, pozn. autora) a kapitálových výdajů, a to navzdory dobrým výsledkům. Podle něj byla maržová páka výjimečná a odhady analytiků by rozhodně měly růst.
Vývoj akcie Akcie SpaceX (SPCX) v předburzovní fázi obchodování oslabují o 9,94 % na 112,87 USD.
Akcie SpaceX (SPCX) včera posílily o 9,4 % na 125,33 USD Ukazatel Ukazatel Kapitalizace (mld. USD) 1678,4 P/E -- Vývoj za letošní rok (%) -- Očekávané P/E -- 52týdenní minimum (USD) 104,8 Prům. cílová cena (USD) 223,9 52týdenní maximum (USD) 225,6 Dividendový výnos (%) -- Zdroj: SpaceX, Bloomberg
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) did almost everything investors had asked of it in its first quarterly report as a public company, and the shares fell anyway.
Revenue of $7.8 billion for the April to June quarter came in ahead of the $6.81 billion analysts had pencilled in, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $3.5 billion beat a $2 billion consensus.
The net loss of $541 million was a fraction of the $1.9 billion forecast and a marked improvement on the $4.3 billion lost in the first quarter.
The shares still fell 7.5% in after-hours trading.
The price of growth
The figure that unsettled investors was capital expenditure. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the quarter against forecasts of roughly $13 billion, with close to $16 billion of it directed at xAI, the artificial intelligence business Elon Musk folded into the group before listing.
That follows more than $10 billion in the first quarter, and analysts now expect the full-year total to pass $45 billion.
Revenue from the AI segment grew 247%, while Starlink, the satellite broadband arm and the group's only profitable division, grew 66%.
The problem is that the spending is running well ahead of the returns, and investors want evidence that the gap eventually closes.
Musk's guidance on the analyst call did little to settle that argument, given he pulled forward his target for $1 trillion in annual revenue to 2030 from 2031 and floated 2029 as possible, against FactSet estimates of about $207 billion for that year.
Overhang issue
The bigger issue arrives on Thursday. Employees and early investors become free to sell 911.5 million shares, equivalent to 12% of the company and more than the 640 million currently traded.
That tranche is worth roughly $116 billion, with a further 455.8 million shares capable of being released under certain conditions.
The structure is unusual, because SpaceX and its banks staggered the releases across nearly a year rather than letting billions of shares free on a single date.
Another 455.8 million are due around 20 August, with further expiries running through September and beyond.
Shares held by Musk and a small group of insiders stay locked until the middle of 2027.
An overhang of this kind is corrosive because the price the market has been setting since June was struck on a very small free float, and that float is about to triple.
Not optional
Supply is only half of it, since much of the selling is not optional.
Many holders need to sell, having already pledged stock against houses and other purchases, which puts a floor under the volume of shares heading to market regardless of price.
Short sellers have been positioning ahead of the date in anticipation.
Membership of the Nasdaq 100 cuts both ways here, because index funds must buy more stock as the float expands, but providers typically only review float quarterly, so the mechanical demand arrives long after the supply.
There are mitigating arguments, and not all unlocked shares will reach the market, while short sellers covering positions will provide some support.
But the sequencing is the point, since each expiry hands the market a fresh test of appetite before the previous one has been digested.
The stock is already down 49% from its June high of $225.64, and well below its $135 offer price.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) did almost everything investors had asked of it in its first quarterly report as a public company, and the shares fell anyway.
Revenue of $7.8 billion for the April to June quarter came in ahead of the $6.81 billion analysts had pencilled in, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $3.5 billion beat a $2 billion consensus.
The net loss of $541 million was a fraction of the $1.9 billion forecast and a marked improvement on the $4.3 billion lost in the first quarter.
The shares still fell 7.5% in after-hours trading.
The price of growth
The figure that unsettled investors was capital expenditure. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the quarter against forecasts of roughly $13 billion, with close to $16 billion of it directed at xAI, the artificial intelligence business Elon Musk folded into the group before listing.
That follows more than $10 billion in the first quarter, and analysts now expect the full-year total to pass $45 billion.
Revenue from the AI segment grew 247%, while Starlink, the satellite broadband arm and the group's only profitable division, grew 66%.
The problem is that the spending is running well ahead of the returns, and investors want evidence that the gap eventually closes.
Musk's guidance on the analyst call did little to settle that argument, given he pulled forward his target for $1 trillion in annual revenue to 2030 from 2031 and floated 2029 as possible, against FactSet estimates of about $207 billion for that year.
Overhang issue
The bigger issue arrives on Thursday. Employees and early investors become free to sell 911.5 million shares, equivalent to 12% of the company and more than the 640 million currently traded.
That tranche is worth roughly $116 billion, with a further 455.8 million shares capable of being released under certain conditions.
The structure is unusual, because SpaceX and its banks staggered the releases across nearly a year rather than letting billions of shares free on a single date.
Another 455.8 million are due around 20 August, with further expiries running through September and beyond.
Shares held by Musk and a small group of insiders stay locked until the middle of 2027.
An overhang of this kind is corrosive because the price the market has been setting since June was struck on a very small free float, and that float is about to triple.
Not optional
Supply is only half of it, since much of the selling is not optional.
Many holders need to sell, having already pledged stock against houses and other purchases, which puts a floor under the volume of shares heading to market regardless of price.
Short sellers have been positioning ahead of the date in anticipation.
Membership of the Nasdaq 100 cuts both ways here, because index funds must buy more stock as the float expands, but providers typically only review float quarterly, so the mechanical demand arrives long after the supply.
There are mitigating arguments, and not all unlocked shares will reach the market, while short sellers covering positions will provide some support.
But the sequencing is the point, since each expiry hands the market a fresh test of appetite before the previous one has been digested.
The stock is already down 49% from its June high of $225.64, and well below its $135 offer price.
To say that this is an important week for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.43%), better known as SpaceX, is an understatement. The company reported its first quarterly results after the market closed on Tuesday. And a potentially bigger event happens on Thursday.
SpaceX's first lockup expiration is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2026. Up to roughly 911.5 million shares held by company insiders will be eligible for trading. Here's what this could mean for investors in the world's second-largest communications services stock by market cap.
Image source: Getty Images.
An unusual lockup approach It's first important to understand exactly what a lockup expiration is. Founders, employees, and early investors in a company can't legally sell their stock immediately after an initial public offering (IPO). They're restricted from doing so during a lockup period. The end of this period is called the lockup expiration.
Why do lockup periods exist? They prevent insiders from rushing to sell their shares after an IPO, which could cause the stock to crash just as investors who didn't participate in the IPO can buy.
Lockup periods typically last between 90 and 180 days. However, SpaceX went with an unusual lockup approach. Instead of a fixed lockup period after which all insider shares could be sold, the company designed a staggered schedule that spreads sales over multiple dates.
On Aug. 6, 2026, insiders may sell up to the first 20% of eligible shares. SpaceX's lockup period schedule also allowed for an additional 10% of shares to be sold early if its stock traded at least 30% higher than the IPO price during five of 10 consecutive trading days before its first earnings release. However, that didn't happen.
Why SpaceX's lockup expiration could move its stock Stock prices, like the prices of any product or service, are governed by the law of supply and demand. When supply is higher, and demand remains constant or declines, prices fall -- and vice versa.
With SpaceX's first lockup expiration, the supply of its stock will increase dramatically. Up to roughly 911.5 million shares could potentially be sold by insiders beginning Aug. 6. To put that number into perspective, SpaceX's entire stock float (the total number of shares available to the public for trading) currently stands below 280.1 million shares.
Today's Change
(
9.43
%) $
10.80
Current Price
$
125.33
You might be wondering why insiders would sell their shares, given that SpaceX is trading below its IPO price of $135. The answer is that most pre-IPO investors and employees received their shares at a much lower price than the IPO price.
Some of SpaceX's employees could be especially tempted to sell their shares. The company even warned in its prospectus that its employees are "in great demand." It's not unusual to see early employees wait until they can sell shares, then leave for another job with a rival. SpaceX has several competitors that could be willing to pay handsomely. Some employees could literally "take the money and run."
A steep sell-off isn't a lock. Is a steep sell-off of SpaceX stock a foregone conclusion after Thursday? Not necessarily. Insiders could wait to sell shares on one of the other lockup expiration dates. They could also opt to hold onto most of their shares in anticipation of greater gains over the long term.
That said, the unique dynamics of SpaceX's situation seem to indicate that investors should expect the space stock to fall quite a bit -- even if the decline is only a temporary one. When as much as or more than three times the stock float potentially comes on the market at the same time, the law of supply and demand works against shareholders. And this week is only the beginning.
SpaceX shares plunged on Wednesday after a surge in AI spending rattled investors and clouded an otherwise expectation-beating quarter.
The stock was down over 10% in premarket trading.
In SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday, Elon Musk's space firm said its capital expenditures jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion in the second quarter. This figure was ahead of analyst expectations, with the majority of the spending going towards AI.
The company's stock closed at just over $125 on Tuesday, sitting below its $135 IPO price. It is well off its more than $200 all-time high that was hit shortly after its listing.
SpaceX shares over the past five days.
Investors have been on edge this earnings season as concerns rise about whether large tech companies can prove their multibillion-dollar investments are yielding returns.
While SpaceX's own models are seen as behind OpenAI and Anthropic, the company is positioning itself as an alternative cloud player by renting out the computing capacity that it is building with Nvidia chips.
SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen looked to allay investor fears over capex spending. The company has been "efficient" with its spending, he said on an earnings call.
"On the AI compute side, we're able to deploy capital in such a way that we're getting less than a one-year payback," Johnsen added.
watch now
The share price fell even as SpaceX narrowed its losses and promised significant future revenue. Musk said SpaceX would hit $1 trillion in annual revenue in 2030 versus a previous forecast of 2031.
"SpaceX wants to tell the story they're the market leader ... But people still have these questions: how quickly can they grow? How big are the costs going to be before this thing gets to profitability?" Steve Westly, founder of The Westly Group and a former Tesla board member, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday.
The company is contending with another potential market-moving event on Thursday — the expiration of insider lock-ups. This means that insiders can finally sell a portion of their shares.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX reversed a 9.4% regular-session gain and fell 7.8% after hours on Tuesday, even after the rocket company delivered revenue above Wall Street forecasts in its first earnings report as a listed business.
Second-quarter sales nearly doubled to $7.8 billion, beating expectations near $6.8 billion, while the connectivity division led by Starlink generated $4.3 billion.
Yet SpaceX still posted a $541 million net loss, and investors focused on $15.8 billion of artificial-intelligence capital spending.
The results exposed a quieter tension, as Starlink is increasingly funding SpaceX’s ambitions, but its expanding orbital footprint may bring higher collision-avoidance, replacement, compliance and insurance costs.
Starlink ended the quarter with 12 million subscribers, slightly below the 12.19 million analyst forecast, while average revenue per user fell 22% from a year earlier.
Even so, connectivity revenue rose 66% and accounted for more than half of SpaceX’s total sales.
Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens described Starlink as SpaceX’s current “earnings engine” in a July report, saying it could partially finance the company’s AI expansion.
Melissa Otto of S&P Global Market Intelligence made a similar point before earnings.
She said connectivity margins were SpaceX’s main profitability driver while the Space and AI divisions scaled. That makes any sustained increase in Starlink’s costs especially important.
Joel Shulman of ERShares called Starlink the “crown jewel” of SpaceX.
The phrase captures the contradiction that the company’s strongest business also carries its greatest exposure to crowded low-Earth orbit.
Starlink had about 10,860 operational satellites by July 30, making it the world’s largest active constellation.
Their limited working lives require a continuing cycle of launches, manoeuvres, replacement and deorbiting.
The immediate risk is orbital congestion rather than uncontrolled debris routinely reaching the ground.
Starlink satellites completed more than 355,000 collision-avoidance manoeuvres in the year to May 2026, according to Space.com, averaging more than 40 for each spacecraft.
Hugh Lewis, a space-sustainability expert at the University of Birmingham, told the publication that the industry was approaching a situation in which an operational constellation satellite would eventually be involved in a collision.
That does not mean an accident is imminent. The manoeuvres show SpaceX’s automated system is actively reducing danger.
The financial question is whether the workload can keep expanding without consuming more fuel, shortening satellite lives or requiring heavier investment in tracking.
SpaceX’s prospectus warns that orbital congestion and debris could cause satellite losses or degradation, increase collision-avoidance costs and force assets to be replaced or repositioned sooner than planned.
The disclosure does not quantify a liability or establish that debris costs are material to earnings.
It does show that SpaceX recognises orbital safety as a financial risk, not merely an engineering problem.
Future rules may also require additional mitigation spending or constrain licences.
A serious collision could interrupt service, damage customer confidence and create claims or insurance costs, although investors lack enough information to price those outcomes reliably.
A live feed shows SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesFirst lockup expiry on Thursday could triple SpaceX's public floatStaggered lockup schedule frees additional 12.9 billion shares by mid-2027Key to outlook is understanding who is selling, investors sayPROVIDENCE, Rhode Island, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The next test for SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab investors following its first earnings report as a public company comes on Thursday, when as many as 912 million shares held by employees and other pre-IPO stakeholders become eligible for sale.
Insiders who acquired stakes in the space and AI company months or years before its June listing at a fraction of the $135 per share IPO price stand to make big gains with their share lockup expiring, but their sales could add fresh pressure on the stock, which has slumped 49% from its June high.
Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.
Heavy selling is expected, but determining who is getting out or trimming stakes will be key to market sentiment on the company's prospects, fund managers, brokers and analysts said.
"This has to be the most talked-about lockup in the history of IPO lockups," said Robert Hackel, CEO of institutional brokerage firm R.F. Lafferty & Co.
He has been fielding calls from pre-IPO investors eager to use the opportunity to sell some of their SpaceX holdings in order to snap up privately-traded stock in other IPO candidates such as AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI and defence technology startup Anduril Industries.
"You are going to see a lot of exits," he said.
Selling will be hard to resist for SpaceX's employees and early investors as they are "sitting on such massive gains that they'll have a very strong incentive to realize a return and diversify their holdings," said Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO-focused research and investment funds.
On Tuesday, SpaceX shares fell 7.5% in after-hours trading after SpaceX reported a stronger-than-expected 92% jump in revenue for the second quarter. They continued to trade lower even though CEO Bret Johnsen told listeners on the earnings call that the company is on track to record annualized revenue of $100 billion by the end of the year.
The lockup expiry may be to blame, said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist for Zacks Investment Management.
The selloff "seems more sentiment driven, as media reports are that many insiders will look to sell on the strong results this week as their shares become fully vested," Mulberry said.
ALL EYES ON WHO SELLS DOWN THEIR STAKESLockups are common after IPOs, preventing insiders from selling shares for a set period. But SpaceX's is unusual because the banks staggered the releases over nearly a year rather than allowing billions of shares to become eligible on a single day.
By the time the process is over in the middle of next year, an additional 12.9 billion shares will be freed up for trading.
The current float is so small that the first lockup expiry alone could more than double the number of shares available for trading, and if a price-based early-release provision is triggered, it could more than triple the public float.
"This time, it's a multiple of the shares outstanding that will make their way onto the market, not a fraction, so these lockups will be an interesting test of the commitment of early investors to stand by the company for the long haul," said Andrew Chanin, CEO of Procure AM, who manages the Procure Space ETF (UFO.O), opens new tab. The fund is tied to an industry index that invests about 6% of its assets in SpaceX.
A large sale by an early backer could send a strong sign about the level of confidence in SpaceX’s outlook, said Lukas Muehlbauer, a research associate at IPOX.
To gauge the likelihood of a heavy selldown, Gabriel Shahin, founder of Falcon Wealth Planning, is tapping his contacts among SpaceX insiders and employees. His takeaway: none appear to be eager to sell.
"They're long-term believers in SpaceX, and as a result we tend to be more bullish on insiders also not selling and what that says about the stock," he said.
But Shahin acknowledges that each of the upcoming lockup expiry dates is likely to make trading more turbulent. Already, SpaceX's volatility is making it difficult for many investors who want to protect themselves from any further declines in the share price to hedge as options prices reach levels that are "sheer insanity," Shahin said.
Reporting by Suzanne McGee and Akash Sriram; Editing by Sonali Paul
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.
After SpaceX spent way more on its AI buildout than analysts expected, executives tried to convince investors on Tuesday that it's all worthwhile, claiming that the company is making its money back within a year.
The message didn't resonate, as SpaceX shares sank following the company's first earnings report since its IPO in June. While revenue in the second quarter sailed past estimates, jumping 92% from a year prior, capital expenditures soared over sixfold to $18.4 billion, more than double total sales for the quarter.
Well over 80% of SpaceX's capex went towards artificial intelligence, where the company is way behind OpenAI, Anthropic and Google when it comes to models and services, and where it's now trying to compete against cloud giants Microsoft, Amazon and Google by selling compute capacity.
The capex figure exceeded the $13.22 billion average analyst analyst estimate, according to FactSet. The stock's 7.5% after-hours dropped mostly wiped out its gains from earlier in the day and left the shares more than 20% below the first trade on June 12.
SpaceX stock chart
Bret Johnsen, SpaceX's CFO, suggested on the earnings call that investors should start thinking differently about capex because of how quickly it's converting into revenue.
"We have been very efficient, to date and I think we'll continue to be," Johnsen said. "On the AI compute side, we're able to deploy capital in such a way that we're getting less than a one-year payback."
Days before its record IPO, SpaceX inked a deal with Google that will bring in up to $920 million a month by providing AI compute capacity to the search giant. Prior to that, Anthropic announced a deal that would involve paying up to $1.25 billion a month for three years for compute capacity at SpaceX's Colossus data center in Memphis, Tennessee. And SpaceX has a separate agreement to provide computing power to Reflection AI for up to $150 million a month.
Johnsen said that in the first few weeks of the current quarter, SpaceX contracted $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue "over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October." Add it up, and the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year, Johnsen said, noting that his numbers assume closure of the $60 billion Cursor acquisition.
In 2025, SpaceX's total revenue came in at below $19 billion.
'Not a question mark'SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said investors can take the 2026 target to the bank.
"To be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark," Musk said. "That's what we would achieve if we basically did nothing."
SpaceX addressed Wall Street for the first time during a period of heightened scrutiny surrounding AI spending as tech outlays reach into the stratosphere. Alphabet and Amazon could each spend over $200 billion this year, with Microsoft and Meta not too far behind. Companies are watching their cash piles dwindle, betting that all these upfront investments on data centers and costly AI systems from the likes of Nvidia will be profitable in the long run.
The particular challenge for SpaceX, which entered the AI market in February through its merger with Musk's xAI, is that reselling AI capacity for short-term revenue is a strategy that's detached from the company's broader ambitions. The company said in its IPO prospectus that its "dual monetization strategy provides multiple pathways to generate returns on invested capital."
watch now
Musk wants to be an AI pioneer through some combination of his company's Grok model and eventually by building data centers in space. The deals with Anthropic, Google and Reflection indicate that SpaceXAI, as the AI business is now known, built way more capacity at its mammoth data centers in Memphis than it's able to put to use.
Musk said on the call that the company has a "series of projects" that cumulatively come to 20 gigawatts of capacity, including power and cooling, by the end of next year.
"Some of them won't pan out exactly on time, but I would expect that we'd still probably have, at the power plant level, something close to 15GW," Musk said.
There are also potential legal headwinds. SpaceXAI has been sued for using natural gas-burning turbines to power its facilities in Memphis without first installing pollution controls and obtaining federal permits. In its quarterly filing, SpaceX said it's recorded an accrual of $354 million for "litigation losses that are probable."
To this point, SpaceX's AI business has been bleeding cash.
In the second quarter, the unit generated $2.56 billion in revenue and had a $1.26 billion operating loss. That followed a $2.47 billion loss in the first quarter on $818 million in revenue.
The company is trying to change the narrative with the new cloud agreements that Johnsen said helped deliver "significant margin expansion" in the quarter.
SpaceX’s First Earnings Report Could Decide Whether Shorts or Bulls Have ControlSpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier, while its quarterly net loss narrowed by $467 million to $541 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% year over year to $3.5 billion, according to the company’s earnings call.
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said revenue growth accelerated across the company’s space, connectivity and AI businesses. He said the company also strengthened its balance sheet through its initial public offering and an inaugural investment-grade bond offering.
Get SpaceX alerts:
Lost in Space: Why Aerospace Valuations Are Plummeting Right NowSpaceX ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash equivalents and marketable securities and $47.5 billion in backlog, Johnsen said. The company raised approximately $85.7 billion in net IPO proceeds and issued $25 billion in senior notes, partly using the proceeds to repay a $20 billion bridge loan.
Starlink subscriber and enterprise growth The connectivity segment generated $4.3 billion of revenue, increasing 32% sequentially and 66% year over year. The segment’s operating income climbed 79% from the prior-year quarter to $1.7 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 64% to $2.6 billion.
MarketBeat Week in Review – 07/27- 07/31President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said Starlink added more than 1.7 million net consumer subscribers during the quarter, its best quarter for new customer additions. Starlink’s average revenue per user was unchanged from the first quarter at $66 per month.
As of June 30, SpaceX had service availability in 167 markets and roughly 10,200 operational Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit, including about 9,600 broadband satellites. Those broadband satellites provided about 800 terabits per second of total downlink capacity, Shotwell said.
Enterprise and government connectivity revenue grew 108% year over year. During the quarter, SpaceX signed an agreement with American Airlines and activated service with Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia and Aer Lingus. The company also won more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts supporting Space Force communications and sensing programs.
Shotwell said SpaceX remained less than 10% penetrated in aviation, which management views as a significant growth opportunity. She also cited opportunities in maritime connectivity and said the company had not lost an enterprise customer. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said he expects enterprise revenue eventually to “substantially exceed” consumer revenue.
SpaceX plans to begin deploying its V3 broadband satellites operationally on upcoming Starship missions. Musk said the V3 satellite is expected to be roughly an order of magnitude more capable than the V2 satellite, while the company expects to launch about 10 times as many V3 satellites. He said the combination could produce a substantial increase in delivered bandwidth, though these were forward-looking expectations.
Starship advances and lunar plans In the first half of 2026, SpaceX completed 78 launches and delivered 1,041 tons of mass to orbit, primarily for internal Starlink missions as well as customer launches, Shotwell said. Space segment revenue was $962 million, up 55% sequentially and 29% year over year, driven by a higher number of larger customer launches and customer mix.
The space segment posted adjusted EBITDA loss of $205 million as the company increased research and development spending on Starship. Johnsen said SpaceX was expanding Raptor and launch-vehicle production, building its Gigabay facility and progressing on launch-pad development at Starbase and Cape Canaveral.
Musk said two Starship B3 flights were completed successfully during the past 90 days. He described Flight 13 as having performed “incredibly well,” adding that the heat shield appeared robust and that the vehicle remained floating in the ocean for recovery and analysis.
Pending regulatory approval, SpaceX intends to attempt a tower catch of the Starship vehicle on its next flight, tentatively planned for the end of the month. Musk said the company could attempt to catch both first and second stages this year and anticipates an increasing flight cadence, potentially reaching at least one flight per day within about a year.
For lunar operations, Shotwell said in-orbit propellant transfer remains critical for SpaceX’s internal plans and its human landing system work. She said the company expects an Artemis III docking with Orion next year, followed by an uncrewed direct lunar cargo mission, with an objective of putting astronauts on the Moon in 2028.
AI revenue surges as compute investment rises SpaceX’s AI segment reported $2.6 billion in revenue, up 213% sequentially and 247% year over year. The increase was primarily driven by new cloud-services agreements and growth in Grok and X subscription revenue, Johnsen said. Advertising revenue rose 7% sequentially as the company upgraded its advertising platform with AI functionality and enhanced self-service tools.
New cloud-services agreements at the Colossus and Colossus Two sites contributed $1.6 billion of AI infrastructure revenue during the quarter. The AI segment’s adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.1 billion, while its operating loss narrowed to $1.3 billion.
SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.4 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity, compared with 1 gigawatt in the first quarter and 400 megawatts a year earlier. The company expects to exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end. Musk said the company would build exclusively on Nvidia’s Vera Rubin architecture going forward and expects to begin launching Starmind AI satellites next year.
Total second-quarter capital expenditures were about $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion for AI compute infrastructure. Johnsen said capital spending in each of the next two quarters should be similar to the second-quarter level. He also said new compute deployments currently carry a payback period of less than one year.
In the first weeks of the third quarter, SpaceX contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud-services revenue for a six-month period beginning to ramp in October, Johnsen said. Management said it expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate based on December revenue, with cloud services providing the largest contribution.
Mobile expansion and outlook SpaceX plans to begin launching next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites next year and expects to begin providing expanded mobile service by the end of next year. Shotwell said the company’s planned integration of 65 megahertz of EchoStar spectrum, along with a larger satellite fleet, could materially improve the service’s capabilities.
She said SpaceX intends to develop terrestrial components for its mobile offering but did not provide a capital expenditure estimate. Management described a potential approach using smaller cellular stations integrated with Starlink broadband equipment rather than relying exclusively on large conventional cellular base stations.
Musk said SpaceX expects the share of compute dedicated internally to Grok training to decrease over time, estimating that about 10% of its compute capacity could be used for Grok training as more capacity is directed toward inference and third-party compute services.
About SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)SpaceX, or Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is an American aerospace company focused on the design, manufacture and launch of advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company develops launch vehicles and space systems used for commercial, government and scientific missions, with a strong emphasis on lowering the cost of access to space through reusable rocket technology.
Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX has built a broad portfolio of products and services that includes the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starship development program.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Continue following MarketBeat
Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.
Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SpaceX wasn't on the list.
While SpaceX currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
View The Five Stocks Here
Enter your email address and we’ll send you MarketBeat’s list of ten stocks set to soar in Summer 2026, despite the threat of tariffs and what's happening in Iran. These ten stocks are incredibly resilient and are likely to thrive in any economic environment.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. aka SpaceX delivered a spectacular Q2, with $7.81B in revenue and $3.54B in adjusted EBITDA, beating expectations across nearly every major business line. Yet SPCX stock fell about 8% after earnings. Investors were not questioning the growth; they were questioning how much capital SpaceX must spend to produce it. Starlink remains the economic engine of the group, generating $4.29B in revenue and $1.66B in operating profit while AI and Space posted combined operating losses of roughly $1.80B.
SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) reported $7.81 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing no change year over year. EPS of -$0.09 for the same period compares to $0 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +16.31% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.72 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.26, the EPS surprise was +65.39%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how SpaceX performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Revenues- AI: $2.56 billion versus $2.17 billion estimated by four analysts on average.Revenues- Connectivity: $4.29 billion versus $3.91 billion estimated by four analysts on average.Revenues- Space: $962 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $875.35 million.View all Key Company Metrics for SpaceX here>>>
Shares of SpaceX have returned -28.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.7% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the U.S. market close on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and YouTube with Romaine Bostick, Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?
Space giant SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported its first quarterly financial results as a public company Tuesday after market close.
• What’s driving SPCX stock today?
Here are the highlights.
SpaceX Q2 EarningsSpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year. The revenue total beat a Street consensus estimate of $6.93 billion according to data from Benzing Pro.
Revenue by segment was the following:
Space: $962 million, +29% year-over-year Connectivity: $4.29 billion, +66% year-over-year AI: $2.56 billion, +247% year-over-year The company reported a loss of nine cents per share, beating a Street consensus estimate of a loss of 24 cents per share.
Operating loss/income by segment was:
Space: -$542 million Connectivity: +$1.66 billion AI: -$1.26 billion SpaceX highlighted two successful Starship V3 flight tests over the last 90 days, closing $14.1 billion in cloud service agreements contracted sales and doubling Starlink subscribers year-over-year to 12 million.
The company has had 78 launches year-to-date and Starlink now serves 167 countries.
Digital assets, which include the company’s Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holdings, were $1.1 billion at the end of the quarter, down from $1.6 billion in the previous quarter.
"2026 has been a momentous year so far, and the second quarter demonstrated the true power of SpaceX," SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said.
What’s Next for SpaceXThe company ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
SpaceX’s total backlog was $47.5 billion at the end of the quarter.
"This financial strength gives us substantial capacity to invest in Starship, Starlink Broadband and Mobile satellites, and our AI platform, while maintaining a disciplined long-term capital allocation framework," Johnsen said.
SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is down 6.20% to $117.56 in after-hours trading Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. The company went public at $135 per share, with shares opening at $150 when the stock was public.
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported higher revenue and a narrower-than-expected loss in its first earnings report since the satellite, launch and AI company’s initial public offering.
Revenue of $7.8 billion topped analyst estimates of $6.93 billion, up 92% year over year from $4.1 billion.
The company reported a GAAP loss of $0.09 per share, compared with analyst expectations for a loss of $0.23 per share. Net loss was $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from a loss of $1.0 billion a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.5 billion from $1.2 billion.
SpaceX said revenue growth across its Space, Connectivity and AI businesses demonstrated the impact of its vertical integration strategy.
The Connectivity segment posted 66% revenue growth and 79% growth in income from operations, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers and continued momentum in its Enterprise and Government businesses.
The company also reported $14.1 billion in contracted sales from multiple Cloud Services Agreements and said it had been awarded more than $6 billion in multi-year US government contracts for Starshield.
SpaceX completed two Starship V3 flight tests during the past 90 days, which it said advanced its efforts toward full and rapid reusability.
“2026 has been a momentous year so far, and the second quarter demonstrated the true power of SpaceX,” the company’s CFO Bret Johnsen said. “Revenue growth accelerated across all our business segments and we delivered strong operating leverage, with significant margin expansion led by our new AI compute agreements.”
Following the report, shares of SpaceX fell about 5% amid continued concerns about rising capital expenditures and impending insider lockup expirations.
SpaceX SPCX shares slipped in after-hours trading late Tuesday as Wall Street delivered a muted verdict on the company’s inaugural quarterly financial report.
In its first public earnings update since a record-setting initial public offering on June 12, SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, beating analyst estimates of $6.93 billion and surging 92% from $4.1 billion in the prior-year period.
The company posted a net loss of 9 cents per share, also outperforming consensus expectations.
Still, investor sentiment remains fragile; since debuting at $150 per share in June, SPCX stock has fallen more than 16% through Tuesday’s close, erasing hundreds of billions in market value.
The post-earnings decline in SPCX shares highlights deep-seated investor anxieties regarding the firm’s relentless capital expenditures (capex) and massive operating losses.
Although top-line numbers topped estimates, traders focused on the underlying cash burn driven by the company's aggressive pivot into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
Following its February merger with xAI, SpaceX committed to building high-density orbital data centers, a moonshot project that pushed full-year losses to $4.9 billion last year.
Compounding after-hours pressure is an upcoming lockup expiration, which will free 912 million insider and employee shares for public trading.
Wall Street remains uneasy about potential insider selling flooding the market while core launch operations remain unprofitable.
A closer look at segment performance reveals a stark divergence between SpaceX's business units.
The company's Connectivity segment, anchored by its Starlink satellite internet network, generated $4.29 billion in revenue versus the $3.83 billion expected by StreetAccount.
Starlink continues to serve as SPCX’s sole engine of profitability, recording $1.66 billion in quarterly operating income.
Conversely, the classic Space launch division brought in $962 million (beating the $835 million forecast) but recorded an operating loss of $542 million despite holding lucrative NASA contracts.
Meanwhile, the fledgling artificial intelligence division generated $2.56 billion in top-line revenue, exceeding expectations of $2.18 billion, yet sank under a heavy $1.26 billion operating loss due to server and constellation buildouts.
For growth investors, SPCX stock presents a classic high-risk, high-reward paradigm.
On one hand, Starlink’s direct-to-consumer and government enterprise model proves that SpaceX can build massively cash-generative businesses at global scale.
On the other hand, the firm’s lofty valuation leaves almost zero margin for execution errors in its AI orbital compute ambitions.
Value-conscious traders may prefer waiting out the immediate post-IPO share lockup period to let market volatility cool.
However, long-term believers in Elon Musk’s multi-planetary and AI ecosystem may see current price weakness near all-time post-listing lows as a compelling multi-year entry point before orbital AI compute achieves true commercial scale.
A live feed shows SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab on Tuesday posted its first quarterly results as a public company, highlighting a 92% rise in revenue on strong growth in its Starlink satellite-internet and AI businesses, and announced a datacenter-chip partnership with Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab.
Revenue for the second quarter ended in June rose to $7.8 billion from $4.1 billion a year earlier, beating the $6.9 billion consensus estimate. The firm lost 9 cents a share, beating the 26-cent loss expected by analysts. CEO Elon Musk said on a conference call with analysts and investors that SpaceX expects to receive a "significant percentage" of Nvidia's sought-after graphics processing units next year.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to global sports news. Sign up here.
Shares fell 7% in late trading on Tuesday after rising 9.4% in regular action.
The report has been widely anticipated on Wall Street in part because the earnings release will be followed this week by the unlock of 911 million shares previously subject to restrictions -- an event that stands to add to the already significant pressure on the shares of Musk's rockets-and-AI firm.
SpaceX has risen more than 10% this week but remains below the $135-a-share price at which it raised $75 billion in June in the largest-ever public offering. The stock's decline means that an additional 455 million shares that could have been unlocked this week had SpaceX shares risen above certain stated thresholds will remain ineligible for release for now.
COMMENTS:KEN HERBERT, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ANALYST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SAN FRANCISCO:"We view the results as positive. The company delivered on both the top and bottom lines, which we believe could provide a lift to investor expectations for SPCX's ability to deliver on near-term financials."
THOMAS MONTEIRO, SENIOR ANALYST AT INVESTING.COM:"The central question for SpaceX's first quarter as a public company was whether the machine underneath the story actually works, and on that question Elon Musk and his team delivered a few positives.
"The AI segment also surprised to the upside, moving from a pure cash sink toward something with a visible commercial engine, and management pressed the advantage with the Cursor acquisition. The caveats have not gone away. The revenue still leans on a short list of large customers, and the new deal raises the stakes rather than lowering them, but the direction of travel this quarter was clearly bullish.
"The harder read is the quality of that profit beat. The impressive profitability headline is largely a function of what gets added back, chiefly depreciation, and beneath it is a company still building at extraordinary intensity, running close to breakeven at the operating line and consuming cash at a rate few businesses could carry.”
BRIAN MULBERRY, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT ZACKS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, GOLDEN, COLORADO:"The two things that stood out to me are the doubling of Starlink subscriptions from 6 million to 12 million...and then the actual AI revenue was up 350%. ... Those two numbers were absolutely the biggest outperforming data points.
"I think that's a tremendous upside surprise today alone is the fact that AI is already monetizing itself. They're not relying on Starlink to fund operations there. I think that's a huge part of the story.
"If they can continue to build on this number and continue to monetize AI directly, then it really does soften our concerns about the capex being a little bit too heavy. I think that this is one of those types of results that will change our thinking and might move up our scale in terms of when we want to take a position."
ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK:"They made it very clear this is not a quarter-by-quarter play. Elon's mission is a long-term mission... it's perfectly normal to see fluctuations around highly anticipated IPOs within the first year, if not the first two years, of coming out and starting to trade.
"Revenue jumped 92% but AI costs were high. But revenue jumped, so clearly they're doing something right.
"But they have to meet and exceed Wall Street's already lofty expectations, and that becomes a very difficult thing for any company to do let alone an extremely popular IPO."
Reporting by Akash Sriram, Caroline Valetkevitch; editing by Colin Barr
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
SpaceX on Tuesday showed its first report card since its blockbuster market debut in June – notching a 92% surge in revenue despite losing $541 million in the second quarter. The earnings report capped a rocky couple of months on the public market amid Wall Street jitters over the huge run-up in AI spending.
Elon Musk’s company — which has grand ambitions like building data centers in space and colonizing Mars — posted an operating loss of $143 million and an earnings per share loss of $0.09, beating analyst expectations of a loss per share of 26 cents.
The update marked the first time Musk’s rocket company has reported earnings since it listed shares at $150 in June and raised $86 billion in its record-setting IPO.
SpaceX reported the second-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday. Its shared climbed in the afternoon but fell by as much as 8% in after-hours trading.
The company posted revenue of $7.8 billion while financial markets data provider LSEG had forecast $6.93 billion in revenue.
Last year, SpaceX notched a $4.9 billion loss thanks to massive AI infrastructure investments.
The company said it invested $18.37 billion in AI infrastructure, Starship and Starlink expansion in the second-quarter results.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is displayed at a SpaceX facility on Tuesday in Hawthorne, Calif. (2026 Getty Images) Getty Images SpaceX’s launch business, which is pulling in revenue from large contracts with NASA, lost money.
The majority of SpaceX’s revenue last year – and its only profitable segment – came from its connectivity business, which includes Starlink satellite internet service. It sells to consumers and to government and military agencies.
Elon Musk arrives to speak during an inauguration event at Capital One Arena on Jan. 20, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Getty Images North America) Getty Images “It’s not out of the question that, at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world’s internet, at least in countries where we are allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries,” Musk said on a Tuesday earnings call, according to CNBC.
SpaceX shares could be hit with additional pressure from the expiry of the company’s post-IPO lock-up period starting Thursday, which may trigger insider and early-investor shares on the market.
The company’s space business has netted several lucrative wins that could power its performance in the second half of the year.
The company garnered a $1.6 billion launch order from the Space Force in late July and won national-security satellite deals earlier this year valued at roughly $6.5 billion.
The company has also been testing its behemoth Starship rocket to show off its ability to fling even larger versions of its Starlink satellites – dubbed “V3” – into orbit.
SpaceX reports revenue of $7.8 billion for the second quarter, topping Wall Street estimates. But Elon Musk's company reported an operating loss of $1.26 billion from its AI business.
• SpaceX stock is among today’s weakest performers. Why is SPCX stock dropping?
Gene Munster on SpaceX EarningsThe highly anticipated first public financial report and conference call from SpaceX comes with shares trading lower Tuesday.
"SPCX down 7% on great outlook given capex will be about 65% higher than the Street in Sep and Dec," Munster tweeted.
The investor said, "market missing the point."
The Deepwater Management managing partner said higher capex is good for SpaceX because the stock is early.
Munster highlighted SpaceX’s contracted revenue and rising run rate, which could hit $100 billion by the end of the year.
"Elon is the master at explaining the long-term vision in simple terms. That’s a key reason why shares of SpaceX are going higher."
Munster highlighted SpaceX beating revenue estimates and sees Cloud and Starlink being the key contributors, adding $400 million and $450 million more than expected.
With shares trading lower ahead of the conference call, Munster offered a reason.
"Makes sense. The first quarter as a public company is always expected to be a blowout. That’s what we got."
SpaceX Hints at Future GrowthHighlighting management commentary from the conference call, Munster shared two key items that could hint at future growth for the space company.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Starlink Mobile will start at the end of 2027. SpaceX expects to acquire lots of customers from existing mobile companies to be a true fourth carrier in the U.S.
While this could mean higher capex, Shotwell said existing wireless spectrum bought from EchoStar will help in this venture.
The SpaceX president also said SpaceX expects to be on the Moon in 2028.
"In line with roughly what has been talked about before and the market doesn’t believe it," Munster said.
Munster puts a 70% chance on this happening in 2028 and a 95% chance of happening in 2029.
"Either way, we are close. That’s one reason to own SPCX. The carrot of the moon will give shares a perpetual bid."
SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is down 8% to $115.28 in after-hours trading Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $104.83 to $225.64.
Photo: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.43%) IPO may have been the biggest market event this year.
Elon Musk's space company went public at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, raising $75 billion, making it the biggest IPO in history. After jumping out of the gate, however, the stock now looks like a broken IPO, down more than 10% from its $135 IPO share price.
SpaceX is set to report its first quarterly earnings after the market closes today, and all eyes will be on the company. Analysts expect it to post revenue of $6.82 billion in the period. The company did not disclose its revenue in the quarter a year ago, but that's up roughly 50% sequentially, driven by new data center leasing agreements with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI, which are expected to make up roughly $2.18 billion in revenue. Revenue from Starlink, or its connectivity business, is projected at $3.83 billion, and the remainder, or $835 million, is from the space segment.
On the bottom line, analysts expect adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.1 billion, due to a large depreciation line item from its capital investments, and an adjusted per share loss of $0.23.
Options markets are pricing in an implied move of 14%-15% on the report, but while the stock could swing big, SpaceX's first report isn't as important as it would be for most IPOs. That's because so much of the company's valuation is based on future development like orbital data centers, which are likely several years away. Additionally, the company says it has identified a $27 trillion addressable market, primarily in AI, though it will take years to begin tackling it. Elon Musk may hype up the company's future on the call, but the quarterly numbers will have little to say about that future.
There is, however, another event later in the week that could be more meaningful for investors.
Image source: SpaceX.
Here come the lockups In addition to the earnings report, this week is key for SpaceX because Thursday marks the first expiration in a series of lockups over the next year that will allow insiders to sell their shares.
On Thursday, 911.5 million shares of the stock will be released from restriction, more than doubling the current float. Just 555.6 million shares were sold in the IPO.
Lockup expirations sometimes trigger sell-offs in stocks as they can significantly increase liquidity. SpaceX stock soared out of the gate in part because there was a limited float available. Investors were fighting over $75 billion shares for a company then valued at nearly $2 trillion and with an unparalleled mission of making human civilization multiplanetary.
Today's Change
(
9.43
%) $
10.80
Current Price
$
125.33
However, the lockup isn't a guaranteed sell-off. If insiders generally hold onto the shares, the market may interpret that as a bullish signal that insiders see the stock going up over the long term and bid the stock up accordingly.
The SpaceX IPO has created a lot of wealth for early investors and insiders, and we're likely to see some selling to take advantage of that. The insider response could also hinge on the second-quarter earnings report and the market's response to that.
If the stock goes up on Wednesday, that could encourage insiders to hold beyond Thursday's lockup expiration. Alternatively, if the stock plunges, they could be spooked into selling, fearful that SpaceX shares could fall even further.
• SpaceX stock is among today’s top performers. What’s behind SPCX gains?
According to S3 Partners data cited by Bloomberg, short interest in SpaceX has surged to 219.3 million shares, representing about 34% of the public float and a bearish position worth roughly $24.6 billion.
That exceeds the dollar value of short bets against Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), underscoring growing skepticism ahead of two major catalysts this week.
Bearish Bets Continue to BuildThe recent decline in inverse ETFs reflects SpaceX’s rebound from its July lows. At the same time, short interest has continued to climb, highlighting that many investors remain bearish despite the stock’s recovery.
SpaceX is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after Tuesday’s closing bell, with options markets pricing in an implied move of roughly 14%, pointing to a potential post-earnings trading range of about $94 to $126.
The bigger catalyst may come on Thursday, when roughly 911.5 million insider-held shares become eligible for trading under the company’s staggered lockup schedule. The release will more than double the publicly tradable share count, potentially increasing selling pressure if insiders decide to cash out.
According to S3 Partners, the anticipated increase in share supply, rather than earnings alone, has been the primary driver behind the recent surge in short interest. Borrowing costs have also risen as demand to short the stock increased.
What It Means For Leveraged ETFsFor ETF investors, the combination of elevated short interest, earnings and the lockup expiration could drive significant trading activity across both bullish and bearish leveraged products.
A disappointing earnings report, weaker-than-expected guidance or heavy insider selling could validate the bearish thesis, potentially helping inverse ETFs such as SPCQ, SSPC and SNK recover from their recent losses.
On the other hand, stronger-than-expected results or a muted market reaction to the lockup expiration could spark a sharp short squeeze. With about one-third of SpaceX’s public float sold short, bearish traders may be forced to cover positions, accelerating gains in the stock while extending losses for inverse ETFs and boosting leveraged long funds.
Long-Term Growth Meets Near-Term UncertaintyDespite the surge in bearish positioning, Wall Street remains constructive on SpaceX’s longer-term outlook. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of approximately $6.8 billion and forecast revenue to nearly double between 2026 and 2027, reflecting optimism around the company’s artificial intelligence infrastructure, satellite internet and launch businesses.
That disconnect between strong long-term growth expectations and mounting near-term bearish bets has created an unusually uncertain setup for leveraged ETF investors.
Trading volumes and fund flows across the growing lineup of SpaceX single-stock ETFs are likely to remain elevated this week as investors position for what could be a significant volatility event since the company’s public debut.
Photo: Poetra.RH / Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
