Membership has its privileges. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.02%) investors are hoping that's the case regarding the stock's July 7 inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index.
A quick refresher: Before what was the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, Nasdaq and several other index providers embraced "fast track" rules, paving the way for SpaceX to join various gauges more quickly than usual. In the case of the Nasdaq-100, the index opened the door for SpaceX (and potentially other large IPOs in the future) to join the benchmark after 15 trading days. For Elon Musk's company, that day is July 7.
SpaceX is joining the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7, but that may not translate into huge gains for the stock. Image source: Getty Images.
That's a big deal because the Nasdaq-100 usually adds and removes stocks only once a year, on the third Friday of December. Now, SpaceX isn't just joining a widely followed index; it will be added to funds tracking that gauge, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ +1.32%) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM +1.44%). That's no small feat because, as measured by assets under management, the Invesco QQQ Trust is the fifth-largest ETF trading in the U.S., while its stablemate is in the top 25.
But does it matter to investors directly holding SpaceX today? The answer is "maybe."
Nasdaq-100 inclusion could spark SpaceX Market history isn't guaranteed to repeat, but it's worth noting that the typical Nasdaq-100 addition gains about 1% over the five days spanning the announcement and its eventual inclusion in the index. That doesn't include unusual circumstances, such as the additions of Moderna and Zoom Communications during the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
It was widely known that SpaceX would be added to the Nasdaq-100, but the stock still rallied 2.7% over the five days ending July 2. Another historical footnote worth observing: From 2010 through 2024, the average Nasdaq-100 addition gained 3.8% over the following 90 days. A year out, stocks joining the Nasdaq-100 averaged an upside of 12%.
SpaceX isn't beholden to that history. It could outperform or lag the 90-day and 12-month averages. Fundamentals, including earnings and revenue growth, launch data, and investor sentiment, will determine SpaceX's performance following its addition to the famed tech-heavy index.
Today's Change
(
1.32
%) $
9.42
Current Price
$
722.02
Something else for investors to consider -- Nasdaq-100 fast-track inclusion doesn't guarantee permanent membership. Moderna and Zoom learned that the hard way, as neither is in the index today. Nor does joining outside the usual rebalancing window ensure prominence. Arm Holdings and Shopify received that treatment, but those stocks together account for less than 1.3% of the index.
Speaking of prominence... Even if an investor assumes that SpaceX will trade higher upon joining the Nasdaq-100, it pays to be more inquisitive. No one has a crystal ball, so projecting precise gains is a fool's errand, but it is safe to say post-inclusion gains for this space stock will be small.
That's the result of a scant percentage of SpaceX shares freely floating. As a result, the stock's initial weight in the Nasdaq-100 is likely to be around 0.7%. Back-of-the-envelope math indicates that forced buying of the aforementioned pair of Invesco ETFs would exceed $5 billion.
That's something, but it's not much in the context of a stock with a market capitalization of nearly $2.1 trillion.
Todd Shriber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Arm Holdings, Moderna, Shopify, and Zoom Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
If you're bullish on the future of the space economy and artificial intelligence (AI), then you are likely incredibly excited about Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +2.83%), which recently went public and has already become one of the largest stocks in the market, trading at a roughly $2.13 trillion market cap (as of July 3).
While most believe SpaceX is bound to do great things, the high valuation has made it a battleground stock, with some analysts and institutional traders claiming this is just the beginning, and others suggesting SpaceX has gotten ahead of its skis.
Recently, veteran Wall Street analyst Dan Ives, typically quite bullish on tech and artificial intelligence, weighed in on the stock. Here's what he thinks a $17,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth over the next 12 months.
Image source: Getty Images.
Ives offered less hype than expected on SpaceX Ives, formerly with Wedbush Securities, recently initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying about 17.3% upside from current levels. Assuming this comes to fruition, a $16,500 investment could be worth close to $20,000 in one year's time, the typical time horizon used by Wall Street analysts.
In his initiation note, Ives wrote that SpaceX is "one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market" and "well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler with its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure."
Ives views SpaceX's low-Earth-orbit satellite internet service, Starlink, as the profit engine with a long runway ahead, given that the service still controls less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market.
Thus far, Starlink has been the best financial performer of SpaceX's three divisions, generating an operating profit of $4.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of nearly $7.2 billion in 2025.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
Ives views the launch business as the engine that makes pretty much everything at the company possible, and is most excited about the AI division, which comprises the social media platform X, the digital AI intelligence platform Grok, multiple data centers, and a future potential terafab facility.
SpaceX has already signed massive data center deals with large AI players like Anthropic and Alphabet, which are expected to dramatically ramp revenue this year.
While the deals can be canceled with just three months' notice, Ives still believes SpaceX has an advantage over other data center players because it can build data centers faster and more cheaply than competitors.
Ives' upside on SpaceX is lacking In his initiation note, Ives acknowledged that the bull case for SpaceX largely depends on Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable heavy-lift launch rocket that is not yet operational.
SpaceX needs Starship if it wants to build orbital data centers, which is likely already partly baked into the company's valuation. Starship has conducted 12 test flights but has not yet worked as designed, according to Ives, and could also face regulatory pressure.
While Ives has issued a solid price target on SpaceX and a 17% return in one year is nothing to sniff at, I find his upside case lacking compared to his previous calls on other hyperscalers.
If you are a bull, it is a bit concerning that Ives doesn't have a higher price target, given that he is considered one of the most bullish analysts on the Street for AI and tech.
Ives also points out how crucial Starship is to SpaceX's thesis, and I agree. In its registration statement, the company said it could begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028.
But this seems like an incredibly fast timeline, especially given where Starship is. Obviously, what SpaceX and Founder Elon Musk are trying to accomplish is extraordinary, so long-term investors may not mind the longer timeline.
However, the fact that the company already trades at such a high valuation suggests that Starship's success and orbital data centers are all but guaranteed, when they aren't, making the risk-reward proposition on the stock unfavorable right now, in my opinion.
By You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX's president and chief operating officer, announced the donation on X. TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell says she's donating company stock to Trump Accounts, days after President Donald Trump predicted the rocket maker's shares would find their way into the children's savings program.
On Monday, Shotwell announced in an X post that she and her husband are "honored and thrilled" to gift a share of their SpaceX stock to the Trump Accounts of more than 2 million American children.
My husband and I are honored and thrilled to participate in the Invest America program and gift a share of our SpaceX stock to a Trump Account for each of more than two million children across our great nation.
Every American child under 18 can benefit from having a Trump… https://t.co/M6UJQ26Y6N
— Gwynne Shotwell (@Gwynne_Shotwell) July 6, 2026 The couple's donation is targeted at children aged 11 to 17 living in areas with lower average household incomes, Shotwell said, "with a bit more emphasis" on those near the couple's central Texas home.
"We have been fortunate in our careers and hope this gift encourages the next generation to continue the journey of enabling humanity to live and fly amongst the stars," she wrote.
SpaceX's stock has fluctuated since the company went public in June, but at the time of writing, it was trading at around $160 a share, meaning a gift of 2 million shares would be worth around $320 million at current prices.
The announcement comes days after Trump said in an interview with CNBC that he expects Elon Musk to donate SpaceX stock to the program. "Well, I think that he will do that," the president said, though Musk, who briefly became the world's first trillionaire following SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, has yet to make any public comment.
Trump told CNBC that his relationship with Musk remains strong, describing their past falling-out as a "little dispute" rooted in his decision to remove subsidies and mandates for electric vehicles. Prior to that, Musk had backed Trump's presidential campaign and later spearheaded an initiative to cut government spending.
Shotwell, SpaceX's longtime chief operating officer and Musk's second-in-command, joins a growing list of executives and companies backing the accounts. Michael and Susan Dell have pledged $6.25 billion, Micron has committed $250 million, and employers including BlackRock, Intel, and JPMorgan Chase have said they will match the government's $1,000 deposit.
Trump Accounts, created under last year's Republican tax and spending law, are seeded with $1,000 from the Treasury for every American child born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, and convert into retirement-style accounts when the child turns 18.
Read next
Georgia Hennessy You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Georgia is a fellow at Business Insider's London office.Before joining Business Insider, she worked at Japan's largest newspaper, The Yomiuri Shimbun, and interned at the Financial Times. She is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with a degree in Philosophy from the University of Birmingham. You can contact her via email at [email protected]
U.S. Politicans wasted little time when it comes to investing in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock and, as it turned out by early July, it also did not take them long to begin losing money on their investments.
The most recent example of the phenomenon came in the form of Representative Dan Meuser’s market activity as he purchased up to $50,000 worth of SPCX shares on June 16.
Receive Signals on US Congress Members' Stock Trades
Stocks
Stay up-to-date on the trading activity of US Congress members. The signal triggers based on updates from the House disclosure reports, notifying you of their latest stock transactions.
Furthermore, the trade – revealed in a July 2 filing – was especially ill-timed considering SpaceX hit its all-time high (ATH) of $225.64 on the day and retraced significantly since.
Indeed, at press time on July 6, 2026, shares of SPCX are changing hands at $163.58 after rising 0.98% in the extended session from their latest close at $162.
SpaceX stock price one-week chart. Source: Google If Meuser invested at the June 16 high, he might have lost up to $13,752, given his investment could have retraced by 27.5% to $36,248.
Additionally, he would have fared only slightly better if his timing coincided with the day’s low of $199.98. Specifically, had he purchased at that price, his position – assuming the initial purchase was the top of the reported range of $50,000 – diminished by $9,100.91 to $40,899.09 for an 18.2% loss.
Is Representative Meuser’s SpaceX stock investment about to turn green in July? Still, Representative Meuser’s losses appear relatively unlikely to persist through the rest of July. SpaceX stock will benefit from substantial tailwinds starting on July 7, as the equity will be joining the Nasdaq-100 index on the day.
Though the benefits of increased visibility will arguably largely be lost on the company – Elon Musk’s newer public firm has been famous for years and had the largest IPO on record – it will, nonetheless, enjoy substantial buying pressure as index funds get compelled to include it.
Receive Signals on US Congress Members' Stock Trades
Stocks
Stay up-to-date on the trading activity of US Congress members. The signal triggers based on updates from the House disclosure reports, notifying you of their latest stock transactions.
The bull case was, additionally, probably not lost on Representative Dan Meuser since his investment in SpaceX stock was simultaneously his first stock buy in approximately six years – once bond purchases are excluded, his most recent equity purchase took place on March 30, 2020
Featured image via Shutterstock
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.00%) is finally a publicly traded company. Now the process begins for stock indexes to add SpaceX shares to their holdings. Each index has its own rules for inclusion. Some require that a stock only be publicly traded for several days. Others, like the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.40%), require a full year of trading before adding.
The Nasdaq-100 index -- which tracks 100 large non-financial stocks -- recently announced new "fast track" eligibility criteria designed to address mega initial public offerings (IPOs), such as the SpaceX IPO. Under those criteria, new stocks can be added on their 15th trading day. The exchange announced on June 26 that SpaceX will be added before markets open on July 7.
For investors in the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ +1.57%) and Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM +1.49%), which track the Nasdaq-100 index, that means they will soon own a piece of SpaceX. If you're one of them, here's what you should know ahead of its addition.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's addition will be a one-time event There was speculation at one time that, due to its size, SpaceX stock might be added to the Nasdaq-100 in phases. That won't be the case. The Nasdaq-100 construction methodology indicates that stocks are added as a single event, and no provision is made to add large IPO shares in pieces.
SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 could result in $4 billion of passive fund buys The Invesco QQQ ETF and its twin, the Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM +1.49%), manage a combined $570 billion in assets. These funds are going to need to buy a significant amount of SpaceX stock in order to track the index properly.
JPMorgan estimates that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 could result in $4.3 billion of buying. With fund buying of this magnitude, expect SpaceX stock to be volatile.
SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq-100 will likely be around 1% You might be asking how SpaceX will likely have only about a 1% weighting in the Nasdaq-100, even though its $2.3 trillion market cap is comparable to Amazon's, which has a 4% weighting.
The answer is that the index's weighting is based on free float market capitalization, which excludes shares held by insiders or restricted from the market. Only a relatively small percentage of SpaceX shares are publicly traded, which reduces the potential weight the stock can carry. If more shares become publicly available, the stock's weight will likely rise.
Anthropic and OpenAI are probably next The Nasdaq-100's new fast-track inclusion policy paves the way for the next big IPOs to be added quickly. In all likelihood, that's likely Anthropic and OpenAI, which pundits think will probably go public either in 2026 or 2027. Once that happens, index-tracking ETF shareholders will begin owning those stocks, too.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.02%) is making a bold move into AI with its $60 billion deal with Cursor. The upside case is that rockets, Starlink, Grok, Cursor, and future orbital compute could form a new infrastructure ecosystem. But with expectations already sky-high, investors need to ask whether the stock is pricing in too much too soon.
*Stock prices used were the market prices of June 18, 2026. The video was published on July 3, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
The InclusionSpaceX will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally, meaning every index fund and ETF tracking the benchmark will be required to own SpaceX shares as of Tuesday’s open.
Estimates suggest passive investors could purchase up to $4.3 billion in shares from the QQQ ETF alone, with total Nasdaq-100 and Russell index tracking fund buying potentially reaching $27 billion.
SpaceX Shares Edge HigherSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 2.44% higher at $165.96, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced she would donate to the Trump Accounts program on Monday, joining a growing list of companies and billionaires pledging to support the investment accounts for American children under 18.
The gift, which includes shares of Shotwell's and her husband's SpaceX stock, will go to around 2 million Trump accounts, with a "bit more emphasis" on children who live close to their home in central Texas, Shotwell wrote in a post on X.
"We have been fortunate in our careers and hope this gift encourages the next generation to continue the journey of enabling humanity to live and fly amongst the stars," Shotwell wrote.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump told CNBC's Joe Kernen that he thought SpaceX CEO Elon Musk would donate company stock to the program.
Read more CNBC tech newsMeta's push into cloud computing means Wall Street has to prepare for lower marginsChip stocks that notched record rallies in second quarter start Q3 with a dudPlayStation will end physical disc production for new games in 2028Employers who laid off workers citing AI are already starting to regret it
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell pledged SpaceX stock to more than two million children through Trump Accounts after President Donald Trump floated the idea, while Elon Musk has yet to respond.
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 2: A SpaceX logo on a space suit is displayed at an exhibit at The Great American State Fair on July 2, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images)
Getty Images
This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares perform as if they are part of a monopoly, boasting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and over 100 times its trailing revenue. Such figures only make sense if investors believe that SpaceX will face little to no serious competition for an extended period. Nevertheless, stakeholders should not assume that this situation will endure indefinitely. SpaceX is fundamentally a long-term investment, which presents a double-edged sword: it indicates that smaller, emerging rivals warrant more regard than their current market presence implies. At present, there are few credible competitors to SpaceX. Among them, Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin stands out as the most significant contender. Although still lagging, it is making substantial strides, especially in technical and regulatory developments.
See how SpaceX’s financial performance compares with other publicly traded space stocks like Redwire (RDW) and Rocket Lab (RKLB).
Regulatory Support Is The Core NarrativeFederal contracts are crucial for the space sector, and securing them is heavily reliant on establishing connections with government entities.
Blue Origin's recent advancements illustrate this reality. Its average yearly federal contracts under the current Trump administration surged by 177% compared to the Biden administration's rate. The Space Force has authorized the firm for seven military and intelligence launches valued at up to $2.4 billion. NASA granted it $188 million for lunar cargo deliveries associated with the Artemis initiative. Blue Origin is now qualified to compete for portions of the Pentagon’s $151 billion Golden Dome missile defense initiative.
During this term, Bezos has cultivated a notably closer relationship with Trump, gaining presumably greater access to the White House. This association has aligned with NASA and Space Force leaders publicly positioned Blue Origin as a critical counterweight to SpaceX, indicating sustained agency interest for a second major launch service provider.
MORE FOR YOU
SpaceX has also profited from Elon Musk's rapport with President Trump. However, the situation has shifted, as Blue Origin is now nurturing similar access, making it less probable for government support to continue being a one-company advantage over an extended period.
Although launch operations and Starlink remain fundamental to SpaceX, wireless services also seem to be coming into focus for the company.
Operational Disparity Remains SignificantThe difference in operational capabilities is substantial. SpaceX conducts rocket launches approximately every two to three days, providing it with significantly more opportunities to enhance its technology, reduce costs, and attract customers. It has successfully landed reusable boosters hundreds of times, whereas Blue Origin's heavy-lift New Glenn completed its inaugural launch this year and is still navigating early landing trials. Furthermore, SpaceX operates over 8,000 Starlink satellites, generating billions in ongoing revenue—an area Blue Origin has not yet ventured into. This disparity is evident in government contracts as well: since 2008, SpaceX has secured approximately $24.9 billion in federal commitments, in contrast to about $2.6 billion for Blue Origin.
Starship introduces another level of distinction. SpaceX is already engaging in flight tests of a fully reusable super-heavy launch system aimed at considerably lowering the cost to access orbit and supporting missions to the Moon and Mars. Blue Origin currently lacks a comparable vehicle in its plans.
Nonetheless, Blue Origin possesses genuine advantages beyond its increasing regulatory support. Its BE-4 engine powers both New Glenn and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan Centaur, establishing Blue Origin as an essential supplier for the U.S. launch market. Jeff Bezos also financially backs the company with billions, providing a level of financial support that few aerospace startups can rival. Unlike most space startups, Blue Origin is not under intense pressure to raise funds or focus on short-term profitability, allowing it to invest steadily in long-term projects. Moreover, unlike many competitors, New Glenn was architected for reusability from the beginning, positioning it well to compete in a market that increasingly hinges on repeatedly utilizing the same hardware to reduce launch costs.
Is Catching Up Necessary?Closing the gap with Starlink or Starship within this decade appears unlikely given SpaceX's advantages in financial flow and flight data.
Blue Origin does not require operational equivalence to be of significance to investors. It must establish sufficient credibility and government endorsement to remain the funded alternative in major projects, and the contracting trends over the last year indicate that this is precisely what is occurring. For SpaceX investors, the concern is that federal agencies might intentionally allocate funds to sustain a second supplier, thereby limiting how much pricing influence and contract share SpaceX can ultimately command, despite its operational supremacy.
While the space sector continues to be a high-interest field, valuations stay elevated. It becomes essential to balance investments like this against validated cash-generating platforms. A disciplined investment strategy aids in maintaining your position while limiting the repercussions of market fluctuations. While consistently outperforming the market can be difficult, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio aims to make this an attainable objective. The HQ approach has consistently surpassed its market benchmark since inception, yielding cumulative returns exceeding 105 percent.
Although earnings season is right around the corner, all eyes are on Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +2.69%) this week -- and with good reason.
A little over three weeks ago, SpaceX rewrote Wall Street's record books by raising $85.7 billion with its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' option. Tomorrow, July 7, it'll once again alter history by joining one of Wall Street's most prestigious indexes, the Nasdaq-100. But what if I told you that SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq-100 isn't tomorrow's biggest catalyst for the stock?
Image source: Getty Images.
In a presumed effort to attract Musk's company to list its shares on the Nasdaq (NDAQ +2.50%) stock exchange, Nasdaq Global Indexes amended several rules concerning Nasdaq-100 inclusion. These updated criteria, effective as of May 1, removed the low-float requirement and significantly shortened the timeline to Nasdaq-100 inclusion from around three months to only 15 trading days. Today, July 6, marks SpaceX's 15th trading session as a public company.
Nasdaq Global Indexes wasn't the only committee that made changes ahead of SpaceX's debut. The U.S. Russell Indexes also reduced the wait period for large-cap inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 to just five trading days, down from once per quarter.
To be clear, this means only the S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX shortly after its IPO.
FTSE Russell adds eligible megacap IPOs after the close of the 5th trading day.
Nasdaq adds them about 15 trading days after listing.
The S&P 500 kept its rules, so SpaceX waits the full...
-- Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) June 4, 2026 What makes these adjustments so impactful is that fast entry inclusion will force index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 (as well as Russell 1000 and Russell 3000) to purchase shares of SpaceX. This represents tens of billions of dollars in passive buying that may provide a solid lift to SpaceX's shares.
But while SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 has been well-telegraphed, tomorrow's premier catalyst has flown completely under the radar.
Image source: Getty Images.
Most of Wall Street can now legally chime in on SpaceX If there's one thing you can always count on from Wall Street's leading investment banks and financial institutions, it's their willingness to weigh in on the stock market's largest companies. However, you may have noticed that chatter about SpaceX has been relatively quiet -- and there's a legal reason why.
When SpaceX went public, it had 21 separate underwriters. For context, you can count the number of underwriters for most IPOs on one hand. SpaceX's lead underwriter was Goldman Sachs, with most of the remaining 20 functioning as participating underwriters.
According to Securities and Exchange Commission rules, participating underwriters must abide by a 25-calendar-day quiet period following an IPO. During this time, participating underwriters aren't allowed to issue research reports, make buy/sell recommendations, or set price targets on the company they helped take public.
🚨 SpaceX has officially priced its IPO at $135 per share and is set to begin trading tomorrow under the ticker $SPCX 🚀
The company is offering 555.6 million shares, raising approximately $75 billion in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.@SpaceX also granted... https://t.co/1madtRs7pi pic.twitter.com/OZdixY7knl
-- Herbert Ong (@herbertong) June 12, 2026 July 6 will be the 25th calendar day since SpaceX started trading, meaning July 7 can open the proverbial floodgates for Wall Street coverage. Given that the company's underwriters were allotted shares, investors can practically count on a majority of these participating underwriters initiating coverage of SpaceX with a buy-equivalent rating and a generous price target.
But investors would be wise not to take the bait. While a perfect storm of catalysts is set up for July 7, SpaceX's staggered and accelerated share lockup period is rapidly approaching, and it has the potential to decimate retail investors.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, has been receiving a lot of attention for its deals to sell compute capacity to artificial intelligence (AI) companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet. So far, it holds contracts worth about $28 billion in annual revenue.
In its in initial public offering (IPO) registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX said the total addressable market for its AI businesses is $26.5 trillion. That includes a $2.4 trillion infrastructure market, where SpaceX eventually plans to extend from terrestrial data centers to solar-powered orbital data centers, and a huge opportunity to sell enterprise AI applications.
But things change quickly at SpaceX, and it's reportedly pursuing an opportunity in a $1.6 trillion market that could prove even more valuable than its AI operations. Here's what investors need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The most promising business inside SpaceX could be getting bigger SpaceX had a net loss of $5 billion on $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, but a look under the hood reveals several different stories. The company's launch services and AI segments generated significant operating losses last year, but its Starlink connectivity business generated $4.4 billion in operating income. Both subscribers and profits more than doubled from the prior year, even as it lowered its average pricing.
The next move for Starlink could be an expansion into wireless phone service. The company is reportedly planning to launch a mobile service for U.S. consumers in the near future, taking on telecom giants AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
SpaceX has held talks with Charter Communications for a potential mobile phone partnership, according to reports. Doing so could give it access to Charter's internet infrastructure and its mobile virtual network agreement with Verizon.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Ultimately, SpaceX sees the potential for the internet and wireless phone service market to reach $1.6 trillion, according to its IPO filing. And it has the potential to offer the service at a relatively high margin. Starlink's operating margin is about 40%, and that could climb higher as it scales operations and reduces launch costs. Athough the operating margin on wireless communication businesses is considerably lower (about 20% for the three big U.S. carriers), SpaceX could find that supplementing its network, or partner network, with its satellite connectivity could allow it to generate higher margins.
Meanwhile, it's unclear how profitable the AI segment can be. Although management boasts a tremendous return on its invested capital from its infrastructure-as-a-service deals, it might not have a long-term competitive advantage. The cost and viability of orbital data centers will determine if SpaceX can scale its operations and how profitable it will be.
At the same time, SpaceX's own AI development efforts appear to be taking a back seat, as it has fallen behind leading AI labs and has seen limited consumer traction. It will likely remain a niche player in the sector, weighing on operating margins. Despite the vast addressable market, SpaceX doesn't appear well-positioned to capture a significant share.
As such, I see much more potential for profit in the connectivity business than in AI.
How big could the business get? There's little doubt SpaceX has a very compelling product with its satellite internet business. However, leveraging that into a full-on wireless business is more difficult. It needs to build out a terrestrial wireless network to offer a competitive service. That takes both time, money, and access to limited, government-controlled spectrum licenses.
To that end, SpaceX acquired 65 MHz from EchoStar and participated in the recent Federal Communication Commission (FCC) auction for some of EchoStar's forfeited licenses. However, its participation was limited to filling in just a few key gaps, not indicative of plans to build an entire network.
To put SpaceX's spectrum position into perspective, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon have 375 MHz, 314 MHz, and 279 MHz in population-weighted spectrum licenses, respectively. The next significant FCC auction is next year, so it will take a long time for SpaceX to catch up and build out a network.
But SpaceX does offer a key supplementary service to wireless carriers: satellite connectivity in remote areas. In fact, SpaceX's posturing may simply be a negotiating tactic to secure better terms or longer-term partnerships. SpaceX currently partners with T-Mobile in the U.S.
In that case, it could continue to expand the profitable Starlink business and receive a nice profit boost from carrier deals before pursuing the wireless space directly. New York University professor Aswath Damodaran projects it could generate $120 billion at a 60% operating margin by 2036. That's a 10-fold increase in 10 years, and it seems like a reasonable estimate based on the strength of the satellite connectivity business.
Unfortunately, investors are currently paying a premium price for the rest of the company, including its AI operations. If you expect an investment in SpaceX to produce reasonable returns at its current price, you must also expect the AI business to prove more profitable in the long run than its connectivity business. Right now, the connectivity business holds more promise.
Have you considered buying shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%)? Even if you haven't, you could soon own a stake in the high-profile company. On Tuesday, July 7, 2026, millions of Americans will become SpaceX investors -- whether they wanted to or not.
SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq-100 index only 15 trading days after its initial public offering on June 12 -- the largest IPO in stock market history. Could the space stock surge when it joins the technology-heavy index? Maybe. Even if it does, history suggests the bounce won't last long.
Image source: Getty Images.
The law of supply and demand is at work. The logic is straightforward about why SpaceX's share price could enjoy a nice bump once the company is added to the Nasdaq-100. It's basically the law of supply and demand at work. This law states that if a product has high demand and low supply, its price will increase -- and vice versa.
SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 will definitely boost demand for the stock. Every exchange-traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund that seeks to track the index will have to buy shares of SpaceX. The biggest of these funds is the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ 1.73%). This fund has roughly $481 billion in assets under management. It's also the second most-traded ETF in the U.S.
Overall, funds representing more than $800 billion in assets track the Nasdaq-100. SpaceX's initial weight in the index is estimated to be between 0.47% and 0.7%. The high end of that range means that around $7 billion of the company's shares must be bought by funds.
Now, for the supply side of the law of supply and demand. SpaceX has a remarkably low float (the number of shares available for public trading on the open market) of around 281.2 million shares. The forced buying resulting from the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 will increase demand for those shares quite a bit.
High demand. Low supply. Those are the textbook ingredients for a price increase.
More to the story So will SpaceX's share price surge on July 7? Not necessarily. Although the law of supply and demand is ironclad, there's more to the story.
ETFs and mutual funds that track the Nasdaq-100 won't buy SpaceX stock until it's part of the index, but that doesn't mean other investors can't. Some institutional investors and arbitrageurs can buy a stock in the days and weeks between Nasdaq's (NDAQ +2.50%) official announcement of a new addition to the Nasdaq-100 and the change's effective date. This drives the share price up before the stock is added to the index. On the actual day the stock joins the Nasdaq-100, these early buyers sell their shares at a profit -- but the transaction price could be lower than the prior-day share price.
We don't have to look back very far to see examples of this phenomenon. On June 11, 2026, Nasdaq announced that five companies would be added to the Nasdaq-100 effective June 22, 2026: Astera Labs (ALAB 5.87%), CoreWeave (CRWV 4.58%), Nebius Group (NBIS 6.09%), Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.32%), and Teradyne (TER 13.75%). Four of the five stocks increased by a double-digit percentage between the two dates.
However, on the actual date the companies were added to the Nasdaq-100, three of the five stocks fell. Over the next few days, all of them declined. Shares of three of the new index members dropped significantly.
ALAB data by YCharts
If history is any guide, any SpaceX bump following its addition to the Nasdaq-100 will be short-lived. There's also another factor that could cause history to repeat itself with gusto. SpaceX's staggered lockup expiration schedule begins allowing insiders and pre-IPO investors to sell some of their shares after the company's second-quarter earnings are announced. The Q2 update could come as early as mid-July.
Is SpaceX stock a buy? Investors hoping to score a quick gain from SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 are rolling the dice. That will also be true when the stock is eventually added to the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.00%) index.
But could buying SpaceX now be a smart move for long-term investors? Again, the answer is "maybe." The company appears to have tremendous growth prospects in the satellite internet services, launch, and artificial intelligence (AI) markets. However, with the stock trading at more than 31 times projected 2027 sales, expectations of sizzling growth are already baked into the share price. Other Nasdaq-100 stocks could offer more attractive risk-reward propositions.
Following the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) stock is starting to pop up in a variety of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The number seems to increase by the day.
To be precise, the stock in Elon Musk's reusable rockets company is a constituent of 148 ETFs as of July 3. The stock is a top-15 holding in 35 of those funds. Market participants looking to leverage ETFs as proxies on SpaceX stock have plenty of options to consider. There are actively managed funds with the flexibility to feature large exposure to SpaceX. Likewise, there's a growing population of dedicated space ETFs holding the stock.
Investors may be surprised by which ETFs and index funds now hold SpaceX stock. Image source: Getty Images.
But unbeknownst to some market participants, SpaceX is popping up in some basic index funds. Let's look at why that's the case and which well-known index funds are already SpaceX holders.
Points of order Due to the size of the SpaceX IPO, some index providers altered their inclusion rules, setting the stage for this stock to join select benchmarks in short order.
On that note, S&P Dow Jones Indices didn't follow suit, meaning that investors holding the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.09%) or another basic S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.00%) ETF or index fund won't see SpaceX on those funds' roster until June 2027 at the earliest.
Among the big-name ETFs and index funds that are now SpaceX holders are products tracking FTSE Russell indexes, such as the Russell 1000 Index. Following the annual Russell reconstitution, SpaceX is now a member of that index and thus included in popular ETFs such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB 0.03%) and the Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF (VONE 0.09%). Those ETFs have about $59 billion in combined assets under management.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI 0.14%), one of the largest ETFs trading in the U.S., also holds SpaceX because its underlying index, the CRSP US Total Market Index, added the stock on June 18. However, this fund and the aforementioned Russell 1000 trackers aren't "SpaceX ETFs." Because only a small percentage of SpaceX's shares (3% to 5%, by some estimates) are publicly traded, the stock doesn't command prominent positioning in these ETFs. The Russell 1000 ETFs allocate just 0.13% to SpaceX, while the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF allocates less than 0.2% of invested funds to SpaceX.
MSCI indexes, too MSCI is one of the world's largest providers of benchmarks used by passive funds, and it too fast-tracked SpaceX. So the stock is now part of well-known indexes such as the MSCI USA Index and the MSCI All Country World Index. Among U.S.-traded ETFs, the latter gauge is more prominent. For example, it's tracked by the $33 billion iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI +0.02%), but that ETF's SpaceX weight is just 0.08%.
Investors engaging with sector ETFs should note that MSCI is one of the dominant providers of benchmarks for those products. As such, SpaceX is already included in some sector ETFs tracking MSCI indexes. For example, the stock accounts for 2.2% of the $1.8 billion Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF (FCOM 0.71%).
It's a trend to monitor because, as more of SpaceX's float is released, the stock could eventually command massive percentages of communication services ETFs tracking MSCI benchmarks.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), commonly known as SpaceX, opened at $150 on its first day of trading following its IPO. Had you invested $1,000 then, you'd have approximately $1,080 right now. No, that's not very impressive.
But have some perspective! That's an 8% gain in a few weeks. Plus, SpaceX stock rocketed to a high of $225 before pulling back, so you'd have made a much larger profit if you sold closer to the top.
But the real question moving forward is whether the stock will recapture that upward momentum anytime soon. Nobody can know for sure, but investors are probably best to consider SpaceX a long-term investment rather than a get-rich-quick trade. Here's why the stock could take time to deliver the returns investors hope for.
Image source: Getty Images.
The AI space race will take years As much as investors associate SpaceX with rockets, the company believes the bulk of its value will come from its growth opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI). AI accounted for all but $2 trillion of the $28.5 trillion addressable market outlined in SpaceX's S-1 filing. SpaceX merged with xAI in February 2026 and plans to build out AI infrastructure in space, including satellites and data centers.
But that will take time. According to a Reuters report, SpaceX could begin launching orbital AI infrastructure test demonstrations by the end of next year. Aside from CEO Elon Musk's long track record of pushing back ambitious timelines, it will likely take years to launch, build, and monetize enough infrastructure to move the needle for SpaceX's financials.
That's not to say it won't happen. But it's important that investors set the proper expectations. SpaceX is a tantalizing growth story over the next five, 10, even 20 years, not the next 12 months.
SpaceX's current valuation will likely drag on the stock
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
In that light, SpaceX's valuation becomes a major factor in the stock's near-term performance. As you've probably heard, SpaceX was the largest and arguably most anticipated IPO in history. That means that SpaceX stock went public at a price that reflects all that excitement.
The stock currently has a market cap of $2.1 trillion. It's already one of the world's most valuable companies.
SpaceX's total revenue was $18.6 billion in 2025. That's a price-to-sales ratio of 112. In other words, you're getting less than a penny of SpaceX's revenue for each dollar you invest. It's extremely difficult for stocks to sustain such high valuations, and history offers many examples of stocks that burst onto the scene and then struggled once the business inevitably failed to meet the unrealistically high expectations that come with those valuations.
Unfortunately, it could take years for SpaceX's early buyers to get the returns they hope for. I don't mean that as a knock on a genuinely remarkable company. The reality is that the price you pay always matters.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) is testing how much investors are willing to pay for a company that controls valuable space infrastructure.
SpaceX currently trades at a very rich valuation of nearly 82 times trailing 12-month sales. The stock's sharp rise after the IPO, followed by a pullback, suggests investors are still trying to decide how much of SpaceX's long-term opportunity is already reflected in its valuation.
Image source: Getty Images.
Starlink and Starship are the key growth catalysts Starlink satellite internet is the clearest reason for SpaceX's premium valuation. The company's connectivity business, driven mainly by Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025. Starlink also had about 10.3 million users across 9,600 satellites at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Unlike launch sales, which can be lumpy, Starlink gives SpaceX a profitable recurring revenue engine, global reach, and a direct customer relationship.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
SpaceX's next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, is expected to carry 100 metric tons to orbit. This will give the company far greater capacity to launch larger Starlink satellites, expanding the network faster and at lower cost. The larger next-generation Starlink satellites are designed to support more than 10 times the internet download capacity of the smaller V2 satellites SpaceX currently launches on its Falcon 9 rocket system.
What could $1,000 become by 2031? SpaceX is also spending heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The company's AI business posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion, accounting for nearly 61% of its $20.7 billion in capital spending in 2025.
So, for SpaceX to justify its premium valuation, Starlink must keep growing, Starship must make satellite deployment cheaper, and AI infrastructure must eventually become profitable.
Since 2023, Nvidia's price-to-sales ratio has stayed mostly above 20 times. SpaceX is not Nvidia, but if investors keep viewing it as a leader in low-Earth-orbit connectivity and launch infrastructure, 18 to 25 times sales multiple could be a defensible five-year estimate.
Analysts expect SpaceX to generate about $224.8 billion of revenue in 2031. This may prove conservative, considering that CEO Elon Musk expects revenue to reach $1 trillion by 2031. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect SpaceX's revenue to be $470 billion and $330 billion, respectively, in 2030.
If SpaceX reaches the 2031 revenue estimate and trades at around 11 times sales, its market capitalization would be around $2.47 trillion. This cautious valuation is close to Rocket Lab's sales multiple at the end of 2023, before investor enthusiasm for vertically integrated space platforms pushed the stock much higher.
Based on roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that would imply a share price near $188, turning a $1,000 investment at about $170.80 per share (as of June 30, 2026) into roughly $1,100. At 18 times sales, SpaceX would be valued at about $4.05 trillion, implying a share price near $307 and a $1,000 investment value of roughly $1,797. At 25 times sales, SpaceX would be worth about $5.62 trillion, implying a share price near $427 and a $1,000 investment value of roughly $2,499.
Hence, $1,000 invested in SpaceX today could grow to about $1,100 to $2,499, depending on whether investors apply a cautious premium valuation or a category-leader multiple.
Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify
SpaceX exits quiet period and enters Nasdaq 100. (0:17) PepsiCo headlines light earnings calendar. (1:16) ‘Ghost ticketing’ investigation. (2:23)
SpaceX (SPCX) gets two major catalysts this week, and the options market suggests traders are expecting a solid—and possibly spectacular—move.
On Tuesday, the IPO quiet period ends, freeing analysts to publish ratings and price targets. The stock will also join the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
The July 10 options chain shows traders positioned for those twin catalysts, with the $180 and $190 calls attracting the strongest bullish interest.
SPCX closed at $162 on Thursday, with weekly options implying a move of about ±9% by Friday's expiration. The $180 and $190 calls represent gains of roughly 11% and 17%, respectively.
Downside positioning is relatively light, with little in the options chain pointing to strong bearish conviction.
Then there's the $330 call. On a stock trading at $162, 106,038 contracts changed hands despite carrying just 36,131 contracts of open interest. At about $0.20 each, they represent retail lottery tickets in their purest form—a wager that SpaceX more than doubles by Friday.
PepsiCo (PEP) headlines the earnings calendar on Thursday, with analysts expecting EPS of $2.21 on revenue of about $24B.
SA analyst Motti Sapir, who rates the stock a Hold, says PepsiCo needs to show "clear growth in North America for both drinks and snacks, real positive free cash flow, and proof it can control costs without losing ground to rivals" for the bulls to return.
But Kody's Dividends, which rates the stock a Buy, argues PepsiCo remains an attractive value and income play and "also looks like it can sustain respectable constant-currency core EPS growth in the years ahead."
Also on the earnings calendarm, Levi Strauss (LEVI) reports on Wednesday, while Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports on Friday.
Looking to the economy, the FOMC will release the minutes from its first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday.
Wells Fargo economists say they will be watching for "any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes."
"We will be looking at whether a majority of participants view the recent pickup in inflation as persistent enough to warrant additional tightening or as primarily a temporary supply shock," they said.
"We will also be interested in the extent to which Committee members view the labor market and the demand side of the economy as an inflationary problem."
In the news this weekend, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has launched an investigation into allegations that StubHub (STUB) canceled or failed to deliver World Cup tickets in a practice known as "ghost ticketing."
Soccer fans across the country complained that their tickets were canceled days, or sometimes hours, before matches.
StubHub blamed the issue on "transfer problems" with FIFA's ticketing platform. But Paxton said consumers instead attribute the cancellations to "ghost ticketing," in which sellers collect payment for tickets they don't possess and later cancel the sale.
And starting Monday, Tesla (TSLA) will cap employees' spending on AI products at $200 a week.
The Information reported that the limit will not apply to xAI.
Earlier this year, Elon Musk said output per Tesla employee "is going to get nutty high" thanks to the company's internal use of AI and its Optimus humanoid robot program.
And it's a busy week for dividend investors.
On Monday, AI bellwether Micron (MU), GE Aerospace (GE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) all go ex-dividend.
Micron pays on July 21, GE on July 27, JPMorgan on July 31 and Cisco on July 22.
On Tuesday, Dollar General (DG) goes ex-dividend, with a July 21 payout.
The New York Times (NYT) goes ex-dividend on Wednesday and will pay shareholders on July 23.
Accenture (ACN) and Mastercard (MA) both go ex-dividend on Thursday.
Accenture pays on August 14, while Mastercard's payout is August 7.
On Friday, AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Toll Brothers (TOL), Oracle (ORCL) and Lennar (LEN) all go ex-dividend.
AT&T pays out on August 3. Verizon pays out on August 3, with Marvell on July 30 and Toll Brothers, Lennar and Oracle on July 24.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, reportedly refuses to take the AI company public at any valuation below $1 trillion. There are already ways to invest indirectly in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. But an IPO would finally give investors a chance to participate directly.
Why is Altman so adamant about bringing the company public with at least a $1 trillion valuation? He likely saw the success of Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.83%) IPO, which saw such heavy public demand that the company's market cap quickly soared to over $2 trillion.
While many people still think of SpaceX as a rocket stock, more than 90% of the company's claimed total addressable market deals with a single opportunity: AI. So comparing OpenAI to SpaceX is more appropriate than many realize.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
Will OpenAI be a better investment than SpaceX? According to reports, OpenAI generated roughly $13 billion in revenue in 2025. So far in 2026, it is generating around $2 billion per month in sales, a trend that would suggest full-year 2026 revenue of around $24 billion. If growth trends persist, however, that figure could be much higher, implying at least 100% annual sales growth.
The issue isn't sales growth, but profitability. The company apparently accrued a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025, while generating a $8.5 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026. A public IPO would help OpenAI raise cash quickly, with an arguably easier path toward raising future capital.
Keep in mind that SpaceX's AI division is also growing revenues fast, generating large net losses to boot. This is just the reality of operating an AI business today -- the capital intensity of building and operating more data center infrastructure is extremely costly, adding a big drag to accounting profits despite high sales growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investors should keep in mind that an OpenAI IPO may not arrive for some time. "Am I excited to be a public company CEO? 0%. Am I excited for OpenAI to be a public company? In some ways, I am, and in some ways I think it'd be really annoying," Altman revealed last December. And while OpenAI did officially file for an IPO in early June, the company doesn't seem to be in a hurry to execute a public sale. "We have not decided on timing yet," Altman stressed.
Will OpenAI end up being a better bargain than SpaceX? We'll have minimal concrete details for making that distinction until a public prospectus is filed. That may not even happen this year. The New York Times recently reported that an OpenAI IPO may not occur until 2027.
I'm excited to see more AI giants go public, providing a better relative gauge for how highly SpaceX's AI division is being valued. But I won't be holding my breath for an OpenAI IPO this year.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock could finish July 2026 at approximately $175 per share, according to a forecast generated by ChatGPT.
The prediction suggests SpaceX shares will trade within a base-case range of $165 to $185 by July 31, while a more bullish scenario places the stock between $190 and $220.
A bearish outcome could see shares fall to between $140 and $155 if valuation concerns intensify or broader market sentiment weakens.
The forecast comes as investors continue to assess the long-term growth prospects of the aerospace and satellite communications company following its blockbuster June 2026 initial public offering.
ChatGPT’s base-case target of $175 implies an upside of about 8% from SpaceX’s press-time price of $162.
SPCX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold The forecast also factors in SpaceX’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, a development expected to increase demand from index-tracking funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The company’s addition to the benchmark could generate billions of dollars in passive inflows, providing a potential near-term catalyst for the stock during July.
SpaceX diversified offering According to ChatGPT, SpaceX should increasingly be viewed as a combination of a space technology, communications, and artificial intelligence company.
Much of the bullish case is tied to the future growth of Starlink, the company’s satellite internet business, as well as opportunities stemming from its artificial intelligence initiatives following the acquisition of xAI.
Starship development also remains a key driver of long-term expectations. Investors believe the next-generation launch system could significantly reduce launch costs and expand the commercial space market over the coming years.
These growth opportunities have helped support a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, making SpaceX one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world.
Another notable development is the sharp increase in short interest. In this line, approximately 31% of SpaceX’s publicly tradable shares have reportedly been sold short, highlighting skepticism among some investors about the company’s ability to justify its valuation.
The elevated level of bearish positioning has also increased the potential for volatility in either direction during the remainder of the month.
SpaceX’s record-setting IPO raised approximately $75 billion and attracted strong demand from institutional investors.
Overall, the stock has remained one of Wall Street’s most closely watched names since its market debut, with major funds continuing to build positions as the company becomes more widely represented across key investment benchmarks.
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
As the late, great Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." His quip is especially applicable to a company like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), better known as SpaceX.
The stock took off like one of its rockets following its initial public offering (IPO) last month. This surge was particularly impressive, given that SpaceX's IPO was the largest in history. However, the space technology company's share price has since pulled back. Investors who bought after the IPO are now sitting on a hefty loss.
How much could $1,000 invested in SpaceX stock today be worth by 2030? Predictions about the future are tough, just as Yogi Berra said. But I'll make one about SpaceX anyway.
Image source: Getty Images.
Two very different scenarios If you're optimistic about SpaceX (and many investors are), you'll focus on the company's tremendous growth prospects. SpaceX dominates the rapidly growing commercial space launch industry. Some believe that the company's Starlink satellite internet service could disrupt the businesses of telecom giants AT&T (T +0.49%) and Verizon (VZ +1.37%). SpaceX thinks its biggest opportunity lies in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including AI data centers orbiting Earth.
Arete Research's Andrew Beale projects the stock could hit $401 over the next 12 months. This price target implies an upside of roughly 148%, enough to grow an initial $1,000 investment to around $2,480. If SpaceX delivers such an impressive return over the near term, it could be worth much more by 2030.
On the other hand, it's easy to find SpaceX bears. Morningstar (MORN +2.45%) crunched the numbers and arrived at a fair value of $63 per share. Assuming the initial euphoria wanes, and SpaceX eventually trades somewhere close to this number, an investment of $1,000 now could dwindle to below $390.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
A middle-of-the-road prediction I think the best prediction for SpaceX isn't as optimistic as the most fervent bulls, but it isn't as pessimistic as Morningstar's analysis either. My view is that the company's revenue will grow robustly, fueled by Starlink, AI infrastructure, and the launch business (with Starship's contribution increasing over the next few years). But I also fully expect insiders' selling in the coming months will take a toll.
With these factors in mind, I predict that SpaceX's shares will trade around $160 by the end of 2030. Yep, that's roughly where the stock is today. It's also in line with where I expect the stock will be at the end of 2026. If I'm right, an investment of $1,000 would be worth in the ballpark of $987 by the end of the decade.
A stock that essentially treads water for four years isn't one that most investors will want to buy. SpaceX could be a huge winner over the next few decades. My view, though, is that many other stocks offer a more attractive risk-reward proposition right now.
Plus: The end of Anthropic's Fable ban, high-earner families explore alternative schools, how data-center water use is actually higher than reported and more
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) went public on June 12 and set a record for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history. CEO Elon Musk's company raised $85.7 billion in a first tranche of public stock sales that valued the company at $1.77 trillion, and its valuation rocketed higher from there. While the stock has seen significant volatility since its public debut, its market capitalization is still above $2.1 trillion as of this writing.
With the company having recorded roughly $18.7 billion in sales last year, SpaceX is currently trading at about 114 times last year's revenue. That's a hugely growth-dependent valuation that is made even more stark considering that the business actually recorded a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year. On the other hand, Musk has issued commentary suggesting that the business is on track to grow at an incredible pace that could wind up shattering concerns about the company's valuation profile.
Shortly before the company's IPO, Musk said that he believed SpaceX had the potential to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Could that really happen, and what might the business's sales makeup and structure look like by that point?
Image source: Getty Images.
Hitting $1 trillion in sales by 2030 would be an incredible feat In order to reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030 SpaceX would need to grow its sales 5,248% over its 2025 sales base of $18.7 billion. In other words, the company would have to increase revenue at an average annual rate of 121.6% for five years straight to hit that lofty target in 2030.
Unsurprisingly, many Wall Street analysts have adopted more conservative targets when it comes to modeling SpaceX's 2030 sales performance. Goldman Sachs has weighed in with one of the higher-end sales targets for the business, but it still projects revenue of only $470 billion for the year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is forecasting roughly $330 billion in sales for the period, and New Street Research is targeting sales of roughly $195 billion in the year.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
In response, Musk said that he would be disappointed if SpaceX did not manage to significantly exceed the current batch of Wall Street sales targets for the business. For what it's worth, Musk also subsequently offered additional commentary on SpaceX's sales outlook, stating that he would be surprised if the business's revenue came in below $1 trillion in 2031. That may or may not be an indication that he is backing off the potential for the business to hit $1 trillion in sales by 2030.
While I think it's very unlikely that SpaceX as it currently exists will be able to approach $1 trillion in sales by 2030, it does seem highly likely that the company's artificial intelligence, Starlink, and rocket launching services businesses will grow at very robust rates. I also think there's a very good chance that Musk will move to merge his SpaceX and Tesla companies sometime between now and 2030 -- a move that could make reaching his rough sales targets significantly more feasible.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) is scheduled to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market capitalization.
For SpaceX, inclusion in the index represents a significant step toward mainstream recognition beyond technology investors. With that said, history shows that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 rarely serves as an independent driver of sustained outperformance.
Image source: Getty Images.
Watch out for momentum traders The anticipation of inclusion in a major index tends to amplify trading volume and expand valuation multiples as momentum traders and growth funds pile in ahead of the official rebalancing date. Let's take a look at what happened with the share prices of some companies that joined the Nasdaq-100 in recent years.
Peloton Interactive was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2020. Leading up to its inclusion in the index, Peloton saw its shares surge nearly 400% as the COVID-19 pandemic supercharged demand for at-home fitness equipment. Shortly after joining the index, Peloton reached an all-time price of $167. But within about 13 months, Peloton had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 and the stock had fallen roughly 83% from its peak as pandemic tailwinds faded. Also in 2020, Okta experienced meaningful appreciation in its share price as demand for cloud-based identity and access management solutions surged amid the rapid shift to remote work. By early 2021, Okta stock had climbed to an all-time high shortly after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. In a post-pandemic world, however, Okta's growth rates have normalized substantially. As a result, the stock has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading for years now. In December 2024, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, joined the Nasdaq-100. During this calendar year, the stock gained 358%, driven primarily by the company's high-profile Bitcoin treasury strategy. After peaking near the time of its late-2024 addition to the index, Strategy stock declined 68% by the end of 2025 amid shifting sentiment toward crypto proxies and Bitcoin's volatile price action. Palantir Technologies also joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. During that year, the artificial intelligence (AI) analytics darling posted a 340% return. Palantir stock continued to rally through much of 2025, supported by its strong business fundamentals. However, by mid-2026, shares have pulled back sharply from their late 2025 highs -- illustrating how even fundamentally sound companies will experience volatility once an initial wave of buying subsides. Axon Enterprise also posted robust gains throughout 2024 as law enforcement and public safety agencies adopted its AI-enhanced hardware platform. After joining the index in December 2024, Axon -- like Palantir -- maintained upward share price momentum during 2025, yet has experienced notable pullbacks from its peaks this year. The common thread across these examples is that temporary inflows provide a one-time lift rather than a permanent valuation floor. A company's subsequent performance hinges on whether the underlying business consistently delivers impressive execution and guidance once the spotlight of index membership moves elsewhere.
What will happen to SpaceX stock after joining the Nasdaq-100? Just like the companies explored above, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 riding pre-inclusion momentum. This is driven by a combination of enthusiasm among retail investors and mechanical buying by exchange-traded funds. I would not be surprised to see SpaceX stock exhibit some near-term support -- possibly pushing it back toward its highs.
Smart investors understand that this excitement does not alter the need for the company to prove durable progress over the coming quarters, though. Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, and an emerging AI infrastructure business must converge to demonstrate a path to sustained profitability. These factors will ultimately determine whether SpaceX's current valuation can be maintained or expanded.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Should SpaceX's quarterly updates fall short of the market's already elevated expectations, the stock could easily face profit-taking and trade at a materially lower price one year from now. This is consistent with the pattern observed in several Nasdaq-100 additions in recent history.
While index membership supports liquidity and credibility, it should be seen as a reflection of past achievements rather than a guarantee of strong future results. Investors evaluating SpaceX stock would be wise to focus on the company's operational milestones and cash-flow trajectory rather than the temporary tailwind of index-driven capital inflows. All told, a stock's record after inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is quite mixed and frequently disappointing for investors expecting continued multibagger gains.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Axon Enterprise, Bitcoin, Okta, Palantir Technologies, and Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Now that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX for short, has arrived on Wall Street, investors can begin looking ahead to its first earnings report as a public company. It might be the most anticipated event of the earnings season, expected sometime in early August.
Not only will CEO Elon Musk deliver updates on SpaceX's business, but a ton has happened over the past few weeks. The company is acquiring Cursor, an artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, for $60 billion in stock. Additionally, SpaceX now has just over $100 billion in cash to put to work toward its ambitious goals, including putting AI data centers in space.
Despite all the buzz, I'm not a buyer heading into SpaceX's first earnings report. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX will need time to deliver on its immense potential The company's S-1 filing turned heads, pegging SpaceX's total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. Although most people know SpaceX for Starlink and its rocket launches, the company attributes the vast majority of its addressable market to AI.
SpaceX is certainly a unique company, with a tantalizing mix of growth opportunities across AI and space. However, achieving its ambitious goals, including those orbital data centers, won't happen overnight. Elon Musk is known for setting a high bar, even if it takes years to deliver results.
For as much growth potential SpaceX has in AI, it's also currently the company's least profitable business unit and faces steep competition from OpenAI and others. Starlink is SpaceX's most profitable business, but its revenue growth slowed dramatically from 96.4% in 2024 to 49.8% last year.
SpaceX's IPO is a game changer, and it wouldn't be surprising to see growth accelerate across the company as Elon Musk deploys billions of dollars of fresh capital. That said, SpaceX's appeal is far more rooted in its long-term opportunities than what the company will likely deliver by its first earnings report.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
That valuation could spell trouble in the meantime It's not a bad thing to look ahead. After all, Wall Street typically trades stocks based on what it believes will happen, not the past. But it gets tricky with SpaceX, a stock with a market cap of $2.2 trillion. That's roughly 118 times the company's total revenue last year.
Stocks rarely sustain such high valuations, let alone reach them. There's a high risk that the stock will sell off if SpaceX doesn't deliver strong results or some other catalyst to keep investors willing to pay so much to own shares. At the very least, it's difficult to see how SpaceX can continue to push much higher in the short term. Shares quickly retreated from their highs once the initial IPO excitement wore off.
There's little harm in holding off on buying SpaceX stock until investors see that first earnings report and the tone Elon Musk sets for the company moving forward.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) became a public company on June 12, initially soaring after its initial public offering (IPO), but now the stock is about 19% off its high.
Some investors might be wondering if now is a good time to buy the stock or if they should wait for a more attractive entry point since SpaceX stock went public at a high valuation. So, is now the right time to dive in?
SpaceX is the future SpaceX had an unprecedented and unparalleled IPO, selling more than $86 billion worth of stock. For reference, the previous record holder was Saudi Aramco, which raised $26.6 billion in 2019.
Fans believe SpaceX offers technology that will be relevant in the future, and as it comes to pass, they'll win big. Elon Musk and his team have put people into space, and SpaceX is the world's largest rocket launch company, with 650 launches to date. It has figured out how to make launchers reusable, and it's on a mission to make space travel accessible to humans.
But the space segment is growing slowly, and it's still not profitable. It posted an operating loss of $657 million on $4.1 billion in revenue last year, with revenue up 7.6%.
Image source: Getty Images.
Satellite broadband is another area where it's a leader and where the consequences could be far-reaching. It has 9,600 satellites in orbit and serves 10.3 million customers in 164 countries. It offers broadband in rural areas and other places where standard internet providers don't reach, and the business is thriving, with $1.2 billion in operating income on $3.3 billion in revenue in the 2026 first quarter.
The artificial intelligence (AI) business might be less exciting for investors. The AI segment, xAI, only merged with SpaceX earlier this year. However, this is where the company is investing today and where it sees its greatest opportunities.
Elon Musk has created other companies, like Tesla, that have really changed the world, and SpaceX fans are betting that he can do it again.
However, there are a few problems with the SpaceX thesis. One is that, even though it's on top right now, it faces competition and doesn't necessarily have the economic moat to stay there. Another is its valuation. Even at this lower price, it trades at the nosebleed valuation of 111 times trailing-12-month sales. That's no bargain.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
Further, the stock is likely to drop when the lockup period ends. SpaceX has a staggered lockup period, with the first part set to end the day after the second-quarter results are released. I would tell even the most ardent SpaceX fans to wait it out right now and keep a logical, common-sense investing thesis when considering SpaceX stock.
After a ton of hype and anticipation, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), aka SpaceX, finally began trading on the public market in June. The stock quickly ran to $225 but has since cooled off and settled in the $150-to-$165 range. It's difficult to know what price the stock might hit by the end of 2026, but there are some potential clues.
It may seem difficult to fathom, but I predict SpaceX could trade down near $100 by the end of 2026. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is approaching a major pivotal moment For starters, SpaceX will likely report earnings for the second quarter sometime in August. It's the first earnings report since the IPO, a crucial moment as it's the first chance investors will have to get a fresh look at SpaceX's ongoing business activities. CEO Elon Musk will have the opportunity to lay out updated guidance and expectations for the business over the coming quarters, and Musk seldom shies away from setting the bar high.
But Wall Street has already set high expectations for SpaceX's stock. Based on the company's 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion, the stock's current market cap of roughly $2.07 trillion values SpaceX at over 111 times sales. Investors will struggle to find an established company's stock that is anywhere near as expensive.
That alone isn't troubling, but the business now has to deliver results to justify such a high price tag.
Can SpaceX fall to $100 per share? It's possible Ultimately, SpaceX's lofty valuation is probably the sticking point investors want to home in on over the second half of 2026. History contains many fresh IPO stocks that struggled under the weight of high expectations, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the stock sell off once SpaceX's first earnings report sets new expectations for the coming quarters.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
SpaceX grew revenue by 33% from 2024 to 2025. That's probably not going to cut it for a stock trading at over 100 times its revenue. SpaceX probably needs to accelerate growth. To be clear, that could happen. It has a fresh influx of capital from the IPO and recently announced an agreement to acquire artificial intelligence start-up Anysphere (parent company of AI-powered code editor Cursor) for $60 billion in stock.
But again, the expectations are so incredibly high that it's going to be very difficult to live up to them. SpaceX would still be pricey at 50 times sales. Even if revenue growth accelerated to 50% in 2026 and SpaceX earned $28 billion in sales, that would translate to a market cap of just $1.4 trillion. That's a 36% haircut, pricing shares at approximately $103. That's not even factoring in dilution from the all-stock Anysphere acquisition.
At the end of the day, SpaceX is an exciting company with a tragically expensive stock. It's probably wise to avoid it until the balloon lets out a bit of hot air.
The dust has settled, and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, has been trading on public markets for a few weeks, with a market value between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion. As of this writing on June 30, the space stock and artificial intelligence (AI) upstart now has a market cap of $2.25 trillion, making it the seventh-most valuable company in the world.
But if you look at the underlying financials, SpaceX is actually much smaller than the other megacap technology companies. Does that make the stock officially overvalued?
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Huge growth opportunity ahead of it SpaceX's total revenue was just $18.7 billion in 2026, which is significantly below the hundreds of billions in revenue that other trillion-dollar market cap stocks like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple generate annually. It generates $4 billion in launch revenue, $11.4 billion from its Starlink satellite internet business, and $3.2 billion in AI services revenue.
However, there is significant promise for these businesses to grow in the years ahead. Starlink revenue grew 50% year over year in 2025, and it has a large addressable market to tackle, along with promised innovations to deliver direct-to-device connectivity in the future. AI revenue should begin to grow rapidly in 2026, with new contracts totaling $27.8 billion in annual revenue for data center services. It just acquired Cursor to compete in the AI coding race, which should boost revenue as well.
Lastly, the massive Starship rocket is getting closer to commercialization, which will not only boost launch revenues but also increase capacity to bring Starlink satellites into orbit.
Image source: Getty Images.
Risks of relying on AI and satellite internet While there is a massive opportunity in satellite internet and AI services, SpaceX will be operating in highly competitive fields in the years to come. AI data centers are being aggressively built by many of the megacap technology providers, including a current SpaceX customer, Alphabet. These contracts can be cut at any point with 90 days' notice, meaning if the overbuilding of data centers eventually occurs, SpaceX's AI revenue may be in for a world of hurt.
With satellite internet, SpaceX is the dominant player today but has many competitors nipping at its heels, such as Amazon, Rocket Lab, and AST SpaceMobile, that are investing billions to deploy their own satellite internet constellations. A long-term addressable market in the hundreds of billions will likely not all flow to SpaceX, despite its current lead in the race.
There is no doubt that SpaceX is tackling massive markets in satellite internet and AI; it's just that there is massive competition for a business that generated under $20 billion in revenue in 2025. The company now has a rock-solid balance sheet after the largest IPO in history, which will be necessary to aggressively spend to win in these new markets, with $9 billion in cash burned in Q1 alone.
SpaceX's consolidated business is also not high margin, with a total gross margin just above 50% in 2025 and a $2.5 billion operating loss. This is the largest stock by market cap in history that is not profitable. Even if you just value SpaceX on its revenue, the stock currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) above 100, which is one of the most extreme revenue multiples in market history. The stock is valued as if it were already doing hundreds of billions in revenue, when that may not happen for a decade or longer.
Unless SpaceX can actually achieve its dream of the space economy and AI within a few years, the stock looks wildly overvalued at a market cap of $2.25 trillion.
Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Three weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +2.69%), etched its name in Wall Street's record books.
Prior to SpaceX, no public company had ever raised more than $29.4 billion from an initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' option. SpaceX practically tripled this figure by raising $85.7 billion from its June 12 IPO. It also made SpaceX one of America's largest businesses.
But it'll take a lot more than IPO buzz and history-making moments to convince Wall Street that SpaceX is a stock retail investors should own. Despite several upcoming catalysts, including SpaceX's inclusion in the growth-focused Nasdaq-100, a massive potential fleecing of retail investors awaits, courtesy of the company's accelerated share lockup period.
Image source: Getty Images.
In addition to the largest-ever IPO capital raise, SpaceX's debut was unique in how few shares the company sold. While the 555.6 million shares sold might sound like a lot, it's less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares. Typically, companies that are going public sell 10% to 25% of their outstanding shares.
SpaceX's historically low float (i.e., tradable shares), coupled with forced buying by index funds -- SpaceX was or will be added to the Russell 1000, Russell 3000, and Nasdaq-100 -- can artificially boost its share price.
But this tailwind for SpaceX stock has a rapidly approaching end date. Once Musk's AI and space conglomerate reports its first quarterly operating results as a public company, currently estimated for Aug. 6, the clock starts ticking for insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) to sell their shares.
The lockup for SpaceX shares is like nothing I have ever seen.
Three groups with different lockup regimes.
The largest group has 180 day lockup after IPO, but with a graduated ability to sell based on share price at milestones before then. pic.twitter.com/LvoVGML0F0
-- Adam Rossi (@rossiadam) May 23, 2026 For early release-eligible shares, insider sales can begin two trading days following the first quarterly report. Here's the full breakdown for the early release unlock schedule:
After two full trading days following the first public quarterly report (20% of early release shares) If SpaceX stock is 30% (or more) above its IPO price for five of 10 trading days ending on the second trading day after the first report (10%) Calendar day 70 after its June 12 IPO (7%) Calendar day 90 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 105 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 120 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 135 after IPO (7%) After two full trading days following its second public report in November (28%) Calendar day 180 after IPO (7%) On calendar day 366 after SpaceX's IPO, all remaining shares are eligible to be sold. This includes the shares held by CEO Elon Musk.
In other words, one of the largest wealth transfers in Wall Street's storied history, from SpaceX insiders to unsuspecting retail investors, is roughly a month away from commencing.
Not only will early release-eligible insiders have a clear path to cash in, but SpaceX's prospectus also outlined the likelihood of debt and equity capital raises for the foreseeable future. This can result in share-based dilution that provides added downside pressure on SpaceX stock.
Even with several early catalysts, SpaceX stock looks to be a landmine for retail investors.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Cory Johnson talks about Anthropic ahead of its and OpenAI's upcoming IPOs. On SpaceX (SPCX), Cory argues that “what's best for millionaire Elon Musk, may not be the best for everyone else,” explaining that big indexes buying into the stock takes away price discovery for peers.
Now that the dust has settled a bit from the massive June IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, it looks like the company's $2 trillion-plus valuation isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Does that mean the company could be a buy in July? Here's what investors should consider before jumping in.
Image source: Getty Images.
Beyond space SpaceX is the leading space launch company in the world, and while it has a few noteworthy competitors, it dominates the launch market.
But that's not the big reason investors got so excited about SpaceX. Instead, they're banking on the company's pivot to artificial intelligence (AI). By entering what the company claims is a $26.5 trillion market for AI solutions, SpaceX has massive growth potential. This is true, as far as it goes: Obviously, any company entering a vast, untapped market has the potential to capture a massive share of said market.
The problem is that SpaceX isn't currently priced as though it has a massive potential market to tap; it's priced as though it's already captured a big share of that market.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Over the trailing 12 months (TTM), SpaceX brought in revenue of $19.3 billion. It also generated TTM operating cash flow of $7.1 billion. Those aren't terrible numbers, but the company is currently being valued at over $2 trillion on the basis of those numbers, which is way out of line with any other company's valuation ... even companies already operating in the red-hot AI sector.
SpaceX's growth is already priced in If SpaceX could rapidly grow its revenue and operating cash flow fivefold, its revenue and operating cash flow would indeed just surpass those of Broadcom (AVGO 2.47%), which currently has a $1.8 trillion valuation. But it still wouldn't be anywhere close to other similarly valued companies:
SpaceX would have to grow its revenue and operating cash flow tenfold to be roughly even with TSMC, and would have to grow them further to catch up to the other companies in the table above. And of course, it would have to achieve profitability, which the others already have.
In other words, why would you pay $2.1 trillion for SpaceX when, even if it grows tenfold, it still won't be bringing in as much revenue, cash, or profits as Meta or Microsoft is now?
Smart investors should avoid SpaceX until the company can show a clear pathway to the kind of explosive growth that would justify its sky-high valuation.
John Bromels has positions in Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) officially priced its IPO at $135 per share. Very quickly, however, the stock's valuation soared to $225 per share. Even following a sharp correction, shares still trade around $170 per share -- well above the IPO price just a few weeks prior.
A report from research firm Morningstar, however, is pumping the brakes. The firm believes SpaceX to be worth just $63 per share -- nearly two-thirds less than the prevailing stock price.
Is SpaceX stock really 169% overvalued? Let's take a look at Morningstar's arguments.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Morningstar's research team clearly took a very close look at SpaceX's IPO prospectus. That 370 page document lays out the company's plans for growth, as well as its updated financial situation.
There are many factors driving SpaceX's stock price right now. But one of the biggest is the company's claimed total addressable market, or TAM. This measures the expected value of SpaceX's end markets over the long term. In a nutshell, it paints a picture of how big SpaceX could eventually become in the years and decades to come.
"We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history," SpaceX claims. "We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion."
With a market cap of around $2 trillion, there seems to be plenty of room left for SpaceX to grow. But Morningstar's analysts aren't buying it.
"Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism," the firm's report stresses. "Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028."
Image source: Getty Images.
This all gets to the crux of Morningstar's argument. The firm likes SpaceX as a business. But even assuming the company executes on several moonshot growth initiatives, the numbers still don't add up.
"In our most optimistic 'moonshot' scenario, the company would be worth $1.97 trillion, or $154 a share," Morningstar concludes. So even when factoring in total success, SpaceX's current stock price is still above the company's estimated valuation.
It is still possible to pay too much for an otherwise attractive business. And from my perspective, Morningstar's claims have some value. Investors should remember that, even if they love SpaceX as a business, the numbers still need to make sense to warrant an investment.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.83%) stock has been incredibly volatile in the weeks following its groundbreaking IPO.
In many ways, this was expected. The company sold less than 5% of its total outstanding shares during its public sale. That means just a tiny fraction of the company is available for public purchase -- a dynamic that can lead to sudden supply-and-demand imbalances. Most major companies, for comparison, have at least 80% of their outstanding shares trading on public markets.
After pricing its IPO at around $135 per share, the stock immediately soared well above $200 per share. SpaceX shares tumbled in the days to come, bottoming out around $150 per share.
Image source: Getty Images.
Right now, however, a rebound is taking place. With the stock crossing above the $170 mark as of this writing, how much upside does Wall Street see remaining? You might be surprised by the answer.
Today's Change
(
2.83
%) $
4.46
Current Price
$
162.00
Here's what Wall Street thinks about SpaceX stock right now Currently, just seven Wall Street analysts cover SpaceX stock. The predictions are all over the place. The average price target over the next 12 months is roughly $222 -- implying around 30% upside from today's levels. The low estimate is around $115 per share, implying more than 30% downside. The highest price target comes in around $400. SpaceX stock would need to rise more than 130% to reach that estimate.
Not included in the above aggregate numbers is a report from the research firm Morningstar, released just before the IPO. While Morningstar didn't include a formal price target, it did reveal that its independent analysis concluded SpaceX is worth just $63 per share -- nearly two-thirds less than the prevailing stock price.
"Even at $63 per share," the firm warns, "we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028."
With estimates ranging from $63 per share to $401 per share, investors should quickly realize that they cannot blindly trust the guidance of just any "expert." It's important to review multiple analyses and come to your own conclusions. That's especially true for a controversial stock like SpaceX.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Where does the time go? In some ways, given the unavoidable hype behind its initial public offering (IPO) and subsequent stock market launch, it's hard to believe that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, has been publicly traded for more than half a month.
Now that the heat and noise from takeoff have dissipated somewhat, let's take a look at where the stock and company stand now and whether it's an attractive portfolio addition within reach of the average investor.
Image source: Getty Images.
Holding a half-dozen With $1,000, at SpaceX's closing price earlier this week, you could buy six shares of the famous space company and have a bit of change left over. The question is, of course, whether you would want to own SpaceX.
Those six shares would confer very minor ownership of a very massive company active in a cluster of pushing-the-envelope activities. In fact, its name is somewhat misleading, since, in addition to space exploration, it also builds data centers, operates a satellite broadband/telecom network, manages a high-profile social media network (X, formerly Twitter), and develops artificial intelligence (AI) models.
This makes SpaceX rather sprawling and not a little ungainly. In a way, it's a company that's a bit all over the place, reflecting the frequently mercurial personality of its founder, CEO, and north star, Elon Musk.
That said, all those activities are at the forefront of current consumer tastes and desires. Only one, though, makes a profit.
The company divides its business not all that cleanly into three reporting units. Connectivity (containing the Starlink satellite network) earned nearly $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. It did so by providing its around-the-Earth telecom services and necessary hardware to a broad range of clients willing to pay up for constant connectivity. Operating profitability was also high, at $4.4 billion.
The other two company divisions were deep in the red, though. The capital-intensive space segment generated nearly $4.1 billion in revenue but, due to heavy investments, posted an operating loss of $657 million. The AI unit is spending buckets of capital to build next-generation data centers. Although it brought in $3.2 billion in revenue, its operating loss was chasm-deep at almost $6.4 billion.
All told, SpaceX as a whole earned just under $18.7 billion in 2025. Glancing below the operating profit/loss line on the income statement, the annual net loss was more than $4.9 billion.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
Big spender Investors should bear in mind, though, that relatively early-stage companies habitually post steep operating and/or net losses as they spend capital to build presence and scale.
So should you part with most of that $1,000 to own six shares of SpaceX? Despite the roaring success of Starlink and the AI unit's recent signing of a $1.25 billion-per-month contract to supply processing power from two of its data centers to AI developer Anthropic, the company's capital expenditures will likely remain immense for quite some time.
With that, impatient investors will likely start bailing in the coming years. That's reason enough for me to sit on the sidelines for now.
Six months ago, SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) was a private rocket company. Today, it is a public one worth more than $2 trillion, and its most intriguing new project has nothing to do with launching rockets. In March 2026, Elon Musk unveiled Terafab, a sprawling semiconductor venture, run alongside his electric-car company Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) and AI start-up xAI, with Intel (INTC 5.61%) later signing on to contribute manufacturing technology. The pitch is audacious: build chips not just for cars and robots, but for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in orbit.
For a company this new to the public market, it's worth asking what a bet like that could mean -- and what it's worth today.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Terafab is Terafab begins with a prototype fab in Austin and a far larger complex planned elsewhere in Texas. Intel joined the effort in April to contribute its process technology, including its next-generation 14A manufacturing process for the full-scale plant. The scale is staggering: SpaceX has pegged the initial investment at about $55 billion and the total build-out at up to $119 billion.
Interestingly, the space angle is what sets it apart. Musk has said that a large share of Terafab's output is aimed at chips for artificial-intelligence data centers in orbit, where abundant sunlight provides power, and cooling would be easier.
But here's the catch: This is a disclosed plan -- but a plan, not revenue. The project is early, unproven, and hugely capital-intensive.
Why would a rocket company build chip fabs at all?
The logic ties back to what SpaceX already does better than anyone. It is the one company that can launch heavy payloads to orbit cheaply and at scale, so if AI data centers really do move to space, SpaceX controls the road to get them there -- and Terafab would let it design the hardware that flies. Intel's contribution is the manufacturing know-how that SpaceX and Tesla lack, a reminder that even Musk's companies can't stand up leading-edge chip production from scratch overnight.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
What it means for SpaceX shareholders Today, the company is primarily Starlink plus launch. Per its filings around its June initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX's connectivity segment, primarily driven by Starlink, was about 61% of 2025 revenue, at $11.4 billion, with more than 10 million Starlink subscribers as of March 31. Terafab extends the same logic that built Starlink -- put infrastructure in orbit and sell the capacity -- into another possible leg alongside launch and connectivity.
Meanwhile, Starlink is what makes any of this affordable. The satellite-internet business generates high-margin, recurring revenue and has become the cash engine funding SpaceX's more speculative bets, from Starship to xAI.
If space-based compute becomes real, it would slot in as a natural fourth act -- launch lifts the hardware, connectivity moves the data, and Terafab supplies the brains.
It is a coherent story. But it is also years away from generating a dollar of chip revenue.
And it is expensive. SpaceX is newly public with a limited financial history, and a $119 billion chip project is a huge claim on capital that competes with Starship and Starlink's own expansion. At more than $2 trillion, the stock already bakes in a great deal of optimism, so Terafab looks more like upside optionality rather than something to be sure about today.
Ultimately, I'd treat Terafab as valuable optionality, but not a reason to buy the stock. The company has a lot of things it is working on. Some, like rockets and Starlink, are already material. But other parts of the business are simply more speculative. And it's important for investors to keep this in mind. For a company this new, with this much of its sky-high valuation resting on things that haven't happened, keeping any position small is probably the sensible way to play it.
Two members of Congress — Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., and Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Calif. — have disclosed that they or their family members bought SpaceX stock in the days after the company's historic initial public offering, according to publicly accessible House financial documents.
Meuser recently disclosed that his dependent child made a June 15 purchase of between $15,001 and $50,000 of stock in the company. According to financial disclosures, it was the first time in several years Meuser or one of his family members has bought stock in an individual company.
Cisneros disclosed a June 18 purchase of between $1,001 and $15,000 in SpaceX stock.
SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite company, went public on June 12 with a $2 trillion-plus market cap.
A spokesperson for Meuser did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday.
In a statement, Cisneros told CNBC that he does not personally manage his portfolio.
"My wife and I have always employed outside financial advisors who have a fiduciary responsibility to maintain a diverse portfolio. We do not manage the day-to-day trading of our investment portfolio, nor have we ever suggested a trade while serving in Congress or at the Department of Defense," said Cisneros, who was appointed by President Joe Biden to serve as the under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness in 2021.
"Additionally, while serving in both the executive and legislative branches of the government, I have always complied with all rules and regulations regarding stock trading and financial disclosures. I will also continue to advocate for more ethics oversight of federally elected and politically appointed officials in regard to their financial portfolios," Cisneros' statement continued.
Members of Congress and their immediate family members are allowed to own and trade individual stocks as long as they comply with disclosure rules and do not use confidential information obtained through their official positions. There is no evidence Meuser or Cisneros traded on nonpublic information or violated any law.
The STOCK Act requires lawmakers to disclose transactions by themselves, their spouses and dependent children.
Still, the members' committee assignments make the trades politically sensitive. Meuser sits on the House Financial Services Committee, which has jurisdiction over securities and exchanges, while Cisneros sits on the House Armed Services Committee, which oversees the Defense Department, a major SpaceX customer.
The filings are also likely the tip of the iceberg of what's to emerge from financial disclosures in the following weeks, ethics watchdogs have previously told CNBC. Many expect a host of congresspeople on both sides of the aisle to have traded SpaceX's IPO.
SpaceX went public in June, raising roughly $75 billion in the largest IPO on record. Shares opened at $150 and quickly pushed the company's market value past $2 trillion, turning the listing into a test for public demand around Musk and artificial intelligence.
Musk and his companies have become increasingly important players in Republican politics and federal contracting.
The IPO was the opening shot in what could become a wave of massive public listings by private technology companies, some of which have been at the forefront of policy discussions in Washington, D.C. AI juggernaut Anthropic has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, and rival OpenAI followed soon after, targeting a valuation that could reach $1 trillion.
SpaceX shares closed at $162 on Thursday, up about 8% from their $150 opening price, but roughly 20% below their June 16 closing high of $201.80.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
CNBC previously found that Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., one of the House GOP's top leaders, had a family investment positioned to benefit from SpaceX's public debut after her husband bought as much as $250,000 in xAI before Musk folded the artificial intelligence company into SpaceX.
There is no evidence McClain knew about later government actions involving xAI or traded on nonpublic information.
"Chairwoman McClain's investments are a matter of public record," Joe Buccino, the House Republican Conference communications director, told CNBC in a statement in June. "They have been made in line with all House and applicable laws."
CNBC did not identify any other members of Congress with comparably clear direct stakes in SpaceX or in expected tech IPOs from companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, though private-company holdings can be difficult to trace.
Efforts to ban members of Congress from owning or trading individual stock have percolated for years, but have repeatedly fallen short.
House Republicans leaders vowed at the end of last year to bring to the floor a bill banning members from trading while in office. A similar Senate proposal advanced out of committee in July 2025. Neither chamber has taken further action on a congressional trading ban.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, got off to a hot start after its IPO. From its initial trading price of $150, it rose over the course of a few days to an intraday high of $225.64. Then, after some of the initial hype died down and the company announced it was raising more money via a bond issue, the stock slumped. It has rebounded modestly in recent days, but as of Thursday, it was still about 30% off its all-time high.
So, is SpaceX a great stock to buy on the dip? Or should you be patient?
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX has a big valuation to grow into SpaceX may be one of the more misunderstood stocks in the market. If asked to describe what SpaceX does, many would likely say it launches reusable rockets to deliver payloads into space. While that's true, it doesn't fully capture the nature of the business.
The majority of SpaceX's revenue and growth comes from Starlink, which offers broadband internet connectivity via a constellation of orbiting satellites. The connectivity segment of SpaceX's business is also the most profitable. The space segment, which includes its rockets, accounts for only about 22% of revenue and 11% of profits. The third segment, AI, largely comes from xAI, another Elon Musk-owned company that it recently acquired. That segment generates revenue from anyone who uses the Grok artificial intelligence platform, as well as from the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue and reported a net loss of $4.3 billion. While that lack of profitability is not the biggest concern, the reality is that SpaceX trades at a massive premium on a price-to-sales basis. With a $2.08 trillion market cap, SpaceX trades for 111 times 2025 sales. Valuations that high are normally reserved for companies that are doubling or tripling their revenue year over year. For 2026, the consensus forecast among Wall Street analysts is that SpaceX will bring in $36.9 billion in revenue. That still prices the stock at 56 times forward sales, which is very expensive for the growth the company is delivering.
This leads me to conclude that SpaceX stock is overvalued, based on its current business. That's important to note, because just like Musk's other public company, Tesla, SpaceX is now being priced based on its CEO's grand plans and promises of future growth.
Investors need to decide for themselves whether today's price is too high or worth the cost for a chance to profit on that potential. Even if the stock trades essentially flat from here, it may be years before SpaceX improves its financials enough to trade at a reasonable valuation. It's also possible that it never will. Until SpaceX can deliver results that match its vaunt, I'm going to stay on the sidelines.
Plus, I think it would be smart for investors to wait until they've seen a few quarterly earnings reports from the company before buying SpaceX stock, as they could reveal more information regarding how its businesses are performing and how management views its growth opportunities.
Wall Street was fascinated by the initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%). Not only was it huge, raising $75 billion from investors (nearly $86 billion if you include the underwriters' overallotment), but the business seems to come straight out of a science fiction novel. According to Jeremy Grantham, that IPO could be a sign that the AI-driven rally is about to break.
Who is Jeremy Grantham? Jeremy Grantham is the co-founder of investment firm GMO. However, his real claim to fame is that he publicly called the top of the Dot-com bubble. The market decline following that top was long and painful, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 80% over several years. It took about 15 years for the Nadaq to regain all the ground it had lost. When Grantham is worried about a market bubble, there's a good reason to listen.
Image source: Getty Images.
He recently warned that the market is the most expensive in history during an interview with CNBC. The big story is the massive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which is driving up AI stocks. That's similar to the overzealous investment in the internet at the turn of the century. And while SpaceX isn't technically an AI stock, it is investing in AI, and CEO Elon Musk has pitched the idea of building AI data centers in space. Grantham sees the massive IPO as another sign of a potential top, noting that internet stock IPOs were similarly big news toward the end of the 1990s.
Grantham is probably right, but what should you do about it? The interesting thing about bear-market predictions is that they are wrong until they suddenly become correct. Bears can be wrong for a long time before quickly looking prescient, with Grantham admitting that the timing of the top he foresees is uncertain. So what is an investor to do? The quick answer is don't panic and sell everything you own, becoming a de facto market timer.
^IXIC data by YCharts
History is very clear. If you bought an S&P 500 Index (^GSPC +0.00%) fund, like SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.13%) or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.07%), or even the Nasdaq Composite index and simply held tight through the Dot-com crash, you would have eventually seen your investment recover and then go on to new highs. Even the Great Recession wasn't enough to stop the broader indexes from continuing their long-term upward climb.
That said, the AI bubble is a potential risk that you might want to address if you have material exposure to AI stocks. That, however, can be achieved by shifting some assets into historically resilient sectors such as consumer staples or utilities. Or, if you are worried about the market's valuation, you can simply invest in a value-oriented ETF.
Grantham is an expert, but be careful how you react You should consider expert opinions when making investment decisions. Grantham qualifies as an expert in investing. However, you shouldn't blindly follow any advice. You need to make sure you invest in a way that makes sense to you and aligns with the market's long-term history. A buy-and-hold approach has been a long-term winner for most investors.
You may want to make changes at the edges, like reducing AI exposure, but dumping your stocks in the hope of avoiding the downturn (and knowing the right time to buy back in) is likely to be a mistake. That's market timing, which very few investors have managed to do profitably over the long term.
After months of hype, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, went public last month. Despite its record-breaking debut as the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history by market cap, the stock is currently down nearly 21% from its peak on June 16.
While some investors are still optimistic that SpaceX will skyrocket after it finds its footing, others are not convinced that it has what it takes to thrive over time.
Nobody can say for certain where SpaceX will be in a decade or two, but if it's anything like previous mega-IPOs, history suggests the humble S&P 500 ETF could be a more lucrative option.
Image source: Getty Images.
Most major IPOs underperform the market, history says Eight of the top 10 largest U.S. IPOs in history have underperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.00%) since going public, according to data from FactSet Research. It's not a particularly close race, either. Collectively, these 10 stocks have fallen short of the index by a median of 127 percentage points since they began trading.
Early performance also isn't a strong indicator of where a stock is headed, historically. Meta Platforms is one of the two companies that have outperformed the S&P 500, and its stock price rose just 1% on its first day of trading. Coinbase Global, on the other hand, surged by 31% on its first day and has since underperformed the S&P 500 by 136 percentage points.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean SpaceX is destined to fall short of the S&P 500. Anything could happen in the coming years, and each stock is unique. But if history shows us anything, it's that larger IPOs don't always have a leg up when it comes to long-term performance.
Is an S&P 500 ETF the better buy right now? Where you choose to invest will depend mostly on your risk tolerance.
SpaceX is far riskier than an S&P 500 ETF, as there are still many unknowns. The company isn't yet profitable and is already overvalued based on key financial metrics. Also, some of CEO Elon Musk's goals -- such as building data centers in space and creating a colony of a million humans on Mars -- are lofty, to say the least.
If SpaceX does succeed in its goals, it could be a lucrative investment. But not all investors will be comfortable with that level of uncertainty, and the near term is likely to be volatile.
^SPX data by YCharts
The S&P 500 ETF is a more stable option, as this investment has decades of history earning positive total returns despite short-term volatility. Also, because SpaceX is not yet listed in the S&P 500 (and won't be for at least a year, assuming it's profitable by then), it can be a smart choice for investors looking specifically to avoid this company.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in the stock market, but for investors seeking consistency, it's hard to go wrong with an S&P 500 ETF.
In the first days after the initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock appeared like an instant winner as it soared 67% from the original $135 price, 50% from the June 12 open at $150, and 38.47% from the day’s close at $162.95.
Despite the initial SPCX shares’ performance that appeared to fly as high as SpaceX rockets, the equity reversed just as rapidly after hitting the all-time high (ATH) of $225.64 on June 16 and even, in subsequent weeks, briefly fell below the day-one range.
On July 2, Elon Musk’s newer public company closed at $162, while the SpaceX stock price today stood at $160.95 by press time on July 3 following a 0.65% extended-session drop.
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Google Still, while the gains would have significantly diminished relative to mid-June, a $5,000 investment made at the SpaceX IPO share price of $135 would have grown to a $6,000 position for $1,000 in profits by the Thursday evening bell.
Making a purchase of the same size on the morning of June 12 would have led to somewhat smaller $400 gains and holdings worth $5,400.
However, buying shares of SPCX on the evening of the IPO day would have yielded a $29 unrealized loss as the investment dropped to $4,971. Traders unfortunate enough to buy $5,000 worth of SpaceX stock close to the ATH would have lost $1,410.
Looking ahead, the future of SpaceX appears significantly more uncertain at the beginning of July, even in the short term, than it did as recently as the June 12 SPCX IPO.
SpaceX stock price prediction for the next 12 months For example, the top-level view provided by rating aggregators such as TipRanks shows that Wall Street experts lack the confidence needed for a “Strong Buy’ average rating.
Indeed, out of the nine recommendations showcased on the platform, one views shares of SPCX as a ‘Sell,’ and there is an equal split between ‘Buy’ and ‘Hold’ ratings. Still, the balance is slightly skewed toward bullish, with the average 12-month price target showing an expected 30.16% rally to $210.86, suggesting Wall Street still sees upside for the SpaceX share price.
Shares SpaceX chart for next 12 months by Wall Street. Source: TipRanks Moving beyond the aggregator platforms, the former hedge fund manager and TV host Jim Cramer is, based on his comments, positive toward SpaceX stock despite being skeptical about the speed of the initial rally.
On the other end of the spectrum, Morningstar published a report around the time of the SpaceX IPO in which it explained its most likely scenario would see Elon Musk’s rocket, internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company effectively halve in value.
The AI side of the equation itself presents potential headwinds. While SpaceX’s agreements to rent out capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) were seen as both transformative and positive for the firm’s revenue, they came with an implication that xAI’s own models were not popular enough to fully occupy Colossus 1 and Colossus 2.
While the supply and demand side of the business model went relatively underdiscussed, reports that Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is considering a similar approach brought the question of the actual need for data centers – and implications for chipmakers and similar hardware giants – into investors’ consciousness.
Indeed, by press time on July 3, it would appear that the fears regarding SpaceX’s fundamentals and the destabilization of the AI boom narrative have proven sufficient to severely limit the expected upside from the SPCX stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, scheduled for July 7.
Nonetheless, the resulting index fund automatic buying activity is still likely to trigger at least a short-term rally before insiders gain and then slowly increase their ability to sell their SpaceX stakes.
SpaceX could end up in your retirement account next.
Cheng Xin/Getty ImagesWhen SpaceX's initial public offering debuted on June 12, it broke a Wall Street record as the highest-valued IPO in financial history, raising over $75 billion in cold, hard cash. The Frankensteined amalgamation of Elon Musk's aerospace and AI ventures is now one of the world's largest-traded companies, with a public valuation hovering around $2 trillion.
Since xAI is bundled inside SpaceX, this also marks the first time an AI giant has entered the public market, beating out competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic.
After years of private tech firms closing the books on public investment, a wave of fresh IPOs has sparked a frenzy among retail investors hungry for a piece of the biggest companies in the world.
That fever is what made SpaceX's public stock offering a rousing success on the first day of trading. Shares soared far past their opening price of $135, surging 19% to $161 by the closing bell. Over the last several weeks, share prices have risen and fallen with daily volatility.
Whether you planned to be financially involved with an AI company or a Musk business venture, you might not have a choice in the matter. SpaceX stock is likely going to end up in your retirement account, and potentially millions of children's savings accounts. Here's everything you need to know.
Once SpaceX was publicly listed, Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMusk became the world's first trillionaire (then he wasn't)Musk, the CEO and largest shareholder of SpaceX and Tesla, is the first person in the world to reach a net worth of over $1 trillion, though his trillionaire status depends on the day of the week.
At its highest point since the SpaceX IPO, Musk's net worth was $1.32 trillion. But the former DOGE head's stratospheric level of wealth is largely tied to Tesla and SpaceX stock, which fluctuate in value. After stocks fell on June 23, his net worth dropped to $957 billion. Musk recently regained his trillionaire status.
Musk also lays claim to tangible assets -- SpaceX's aerospace hardware, Starlink satellites, AI servers and the X social media platform, combined with Tesla's automobiles, solar panels and experiments in robot technology -- which all tally up value on company balance sheets.
Tied to Musk's wealth is his nearly cultlike image as a visionary with an outsize influence on markets, culture and politics. Though many of Musk's promises never materialize, he routinely makes lofty claims about sending crewed missions to colonize Mars, producing fully self-driving cars and creating robots akin to "your own personal R2 unit."
SpaceX stock has seen expected volatilityAhead of SpaceX's public debut last month, major institutions like JPMorgan warned that SpaceX would be a volatile roller coaster ride, due in part to the disconnect between the company's massive cash burn on AI data centers versus its lofty revenue promises.
SpaceX's gains accelerated after Day 1, with the stock reaching an all-time high of $225.64 per share on June 16. Facing rough market conditions, the stock then tumbled, wiping out previous gains before settling around $154 per share on June 22. By the end of June, SpaceX stock had begun slowly clawing back some of its losses, hovering around $170.
CNN reported that SpaceX has consistently ranked among the top two most traded stocks each day since the IPO.
SpaceX will soon debut on the Nasdaq-100. That will legally require shares to be purchased and added to the retirement accounts of millions.
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesSpaceX could be in your retirement account soonSpaceX stock could soon end up in millions of 401(k) retirement accounts, even if you never chose to invest in it. A recent Nasdaq rule change allowed Musk to circumvent the usual 12-month vetting period for SpaceX's inclusion, clearing the way for the company to enter the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on July 7.
A video report from More Perfect Union alleges that Musk strong-armed SpaceX into being automatically purchased by index funds. Critics have argued that this move quietly shifts the risk onto everyday families and retirees, whose investment accounts will take a hit when the market dips. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate (PDF), warning the move set a "dangerous precedent" for future public offerings.
Analysts like former economic advisor Jared Bernstein say that avoiding such exposure may be difficult because index fund structures make it hard for you to opt out. "These tech bros are using their immense market clout to jam these potentially volatile and heretofore profitless assets into millions of retirement accounts," wrote Bernstein on Substack.
Musk is still firmly in chargeAs SpaceX's largest shareholder, Elon Musk owns roughly 42% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. Even without owning a majority of the equity, that stake translates into control.
Much of Musk's ownership comes in the form of super-voting shares, giving him 85% of the voting power and a decisive influence over SpaceX's future.
This level of power stands out in Big Tech. Many Silicon Valley founders, like billionaires Bill Gates and Peter Thiel, have completely divested themselves of their initial brainchildren. Others have significantly reduced their stakes: Mark Zuckerberg owns 13% of Meta, while Sergey Brin owns 6% of Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
Solo investors were unusually well-represented in the buyout of SpaceX's IPO shares.
Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto/Getty ImagesRetail investors were pulled into the mixWhen a large company goes public, most shares are typically gobbled up by Wall Street power players and institutions: banks, hedge funds and mutual funds. A small amount of the shares, usually around 10%, is usually carved out for retail investors, i.e. everyday people who buy and sell investments for themselves.
SpaceX stood out by carving out a much larger share -- 30% -- to retail investors. But that didn't necessarily translate into broader access. Financial Times editor Robin Wigglesworth noted that an unusually large retail allocation can signal weak demand from professional investors. The problem is that when shares are spread out, the burden shifts to less sophisticated buyers, who then have to absorb SpaceX's wild valuation swings.
Despite the larger retail investor carveout, demand still outpaced supply, and there weren't enough shares to go around to everyday investors during the IPO, according to CNBC. Some chose to sell immediately on the first day, a factor that may have contributed to SpaceX's sky-high trading rate.
SpaceX hasn't actually posted any profitsSpaceX is pulling in huge revenue, but it's still operating at a loss. The Information reported that although the company generated more than $18.5 billion in revenue in 2025, Musk's aerospace and AI company still lost nearly $5 billion.
A major reason is massive spending on "chips and data centers" to power xAI projects, which reportedly cost SpaceX $13 billion last year. Depreciation of rockets, satellites and other aerospace equipment accounted for another $6.6 billion in expenses.
Regardless of its negative cash flow, market enthusiasm for SpaceX shows it's still valued like a future powerhouse. That disconnect reflects a broader pattern in tech and AI in particular, where expectations are high even when profits are thin. Musk's soaring net worth is part of the same "vibes-based accounting," where market hype outruns actual financial results.
Musk showed up to rallies for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, fostering a working relationship between the two wealthy elites.
Peter W. Stevenson/The Washington Post/Getty ImagesMusk and SpaceX could boost Trump, againMusk's relationship with President Donald Trump could be warming again, at least enough for SpaceX to surface in talks around the administration's new Trump financial accounts for kids. Semafor reported that officials have discussed donating SpaceX stock to seed the accounts.
Trump accounts are designed as custodial, IRA-style investment accounts for children, intended to nudge the next generation to participate in the stock market. Some supporters see them as a way to encourage long-term investing, while critics are raising concerns that the accounts will disproportionately benefit well-off American families.
Tensions between Musk and Trump have appeared to ease in recent months, following a very public falling-out and a social media scuffle over the White House's budget bill last year. If SpaceX stock ends up inside those accounts, it would give the program a very direct link to Musk and a highly visible role in a politically backed investment push.
SpaceX may have sent a red flag to OpenAISpaceX's record-breaking debut may have shaken OpenAI's plan to go public. According to the New York Times, CEO Sam Altman had been exploring an IPO as soon as this year, with bankers and lawyers pushing for a valuation near $1 trillion. Now it's more likely that OpenAI will wait until 2027 to make its publicly traded debut, according to people involved in the deliberations.
While it's impossible to nail down an exact reason for the change of heart, pushing forward with an AI IPO in a market skeptical of SpaceX's high-flying valuation could be what's spooking Altman. OpenAI's advisors have also reportedly cautioned the company against moving too soon, warning that it lacks the built-in Musk-driven attention that helped fuel SpaceX's market debut.
Institutional investors, who form the backbone of any public offering, may not react as enthusiastically to a less established company that's also operating at a massive financial loss. And after experiencing market volatility associated with the SpaceX IPO, retail investors might not be quick to open their wallets for OpenAI either.
By You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
President Donald Trump spoke about his and Elon Musk's public falling-out. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images President Donald Trump said he thinks Elon Musk will donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts, the US government's savings program for children.
In an interview with CNBC that aired Thursday, Trump said he hadn't spoken with Musk directly since he briefly became the world's first trillionaire following SpaceX's record-breaking IPO.
"I wrote him a note, I said congratulations," Trump said.
Asked directly whether Musk might donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts, the president said: "Well, I think that he will do that."
While SpaceX's stock has been volatile since its $85 billion IPO last month, it remains one of the world's most valuable companies. Should Trump's expectations materialize, it would join a growing list of corporate contributions flowing into Trump Accounts.
Trump Accounts, created under last year's Republican tax and spending law, are tax-advantaged investment accounts seeded with $1,000 from the Treasury for every American child born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028. The money will be invested in low-fee US equity index funds and converted into a retirement-style account when the child turns 18.
In his CNBC interview, Trump singled out Michael Dell, whom he called a "fantastic guy," for a $6.25 billion donation to the program, as well as a pledge from Micron. "That's a tremendous amount, I don't care how rich you are," Trump said.
Companies such as Uber, Comcast, and Wells Fargo have also confirmed they will contribute to employees' children's accounts. Employers like BlackRock, Intel, and JPMorgan Chase have said they will match the government's $1,000 deposit.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a Business Insider request for comment.
Trump said his relationship with Musk remains strong, describing their past falling-out as a "little dispute" rooted in his decision to remove subsidies and mandates for electric vehicles. Prior to that, Musk backed Trump's presidential campaign and later spearheaded an initiative to cut government spending.
"He backed me 100%. He liked me, still likes me," Trump told CNBC, adding that Musk was "not thrilled" when Trump followed through on his campaign pledge to reduce incentives for electric vehicles.
"I can understand it, but he's doing good," Trump said.
Read next
Georgia Hennessy You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Georgia is a fellow at Business Insider's London office.Before joining Business Insider, she worked at Japan's largest newspaper, The Yomiuri Shimbun, and interned at the Financial Times. She is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with a degree in Philosophy from the University of Birmingham. You can contact her via email at [email protected]
The initial public offering (IPO) hype surrounding Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, has died down a bit. Now that it has cooled off, some investors might wonder if now is the time to buy the dip on the stock as it sits around the $2 trillion mark.
So, is now the right time to consider SpaceX stock? Or should you be patient? Let's take a look.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's selling pressure could rise The issue with hyped-up IPOs like SpaceX is that a lot of investors rush in, then sell quickly when they get 10% to 20% gains. After a while, this trend fulfills itself, and the stock starts to decline until buying and selling pressure balance out. This is just the market working its way toward an agreeable stock price, and we should see SpaceX stock stabilize over the next few months. However, there's another trend that could start over the next few months.
Right now, early-stage SpaceX investors cannot sell their shares. Elon Musk is prohibited from selling SpaceX stock until 366 days after the IPO. So all of his gains are just on paper right now. There is also a staggered release of shares, starting after the Q4 earnings release and continuing through the Q2 2027 earnings for insiders and other investors. This will increase the float of shares available and likely result in a lower stock price because there is greater demand to sell shares.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
As a result, SpaceX's slide may not be over for some time. To top things off, SpaceX issued $25 billion in debt shortly after its IPO. That's a bit of a red flag because SpaceX just raised over $85 billion by going public. That's over $100 billion in newly found cash for SpaceX, and investors will want to see a solid return on investment with that money.
There are a lot of unknowns about SpaceX's ability to execute from quarter to quarter. All of this suggests that investors need to be patient with SpaceX's stock.
I think there is a far greater chance for the stock to slump than skyrocket over the short term. Investors would be best served by staying patient and waiting to see how the company executes as a public entity. This could save major headaches in the end and also allow investors to invest in other, less hyped-up stocks in the meantime that could deliver even greater growth than SpaceX.
There are far too many great stocks out there to be an early-stage SpaceX investor. Investors should look elsewhere first.
Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
It’s getting tougher to reach for yields within the telecom sector, especially when you have a company like Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) out there with its disruptive satellite connectivity business, Starlink, which might just be the cash cow the firm needs to fuel its other, more ambitious voyages. In its current state, it feels like Starlink is mostly seen as connecting rural homes rather than urban environments.
However, that could change with time as the technology becomes better at beaming data from space to devices and through walls. Of course, those big cell towers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, as they just get the job done better. But the big question on the minds of investors is how long before Starlink can become more of a direct-to-consumer kind of mobile service provider.
With SpaceX also reported to show off a device, something that Elon Musk himself was quick to deny, questions linger about what direction Starlink is headed next, and whether it has what it takes to disrupt a very profitable corner of the market.
Though I don’t know what to make of the AI device prototype rumors and reports that have been floating around this week, I do think that I would be just a bit concerned if I were a shareholder in a hard-hit telecom company right now.
Could satellites reduce or eliminate the need for cell towers? I wouldn’t rule it out. While it feels far-fetched to think satellites will disrupt cell towers, I certainly wouldn’t ignore the longer-term potential behind any sort of Starlink Mobile kind of service. It’s not just satellites and the technology behind them that stand to improve drastically over time, but the chips within smartphones and other devices also stand to get better on the receiver side.
Indeed, Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) upcoming iPhone 18 Pro model is rumored to feature the in-house C2 chip, which could change the way we think about satellite connectivity. As the new chip enables devices to browse the web using satellite connectivity, perhaps it’s only natural to question where the technology could go next. We’ve come a long way since the days when satellite connectivity was just a nice-to-have for smartphone users who got stuck in the wild and were in need of help.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
While Elon Musk has been known to be quite ambitious, I do think that the telecom business is about to become a whole lot more competitive, especially as Starlink looks to challenge the dominance of telecom incumbents that might not have what it takes to compete if we do reach a phase where cell towers just aren’t needed anymore. We hear about how nobody wants an AI data center in their backyard, but what about those unsightly cell towers?
Arguably, SpaceX is closer to eliminating the need for such terrestrial cell towers before data centers. While there are challenges that exist that could prevent direct-to-device connectivity that’s on the level of a cell tower, I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against SpaceX and Elon Musk as they’re serious about taking Starlink to the next level. As it turns out, there’s more than just dreams when it comes to the space economy.
Starlink’s disruptive threat is real In my view, the threat of Starlink bypassing traditional carriers is real. As to whether SpaceX will decide to go down the phone route as well or open up the low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation to phone makers prepared to pay remains the big question. I think the latter makes far more sense, especially since there are more urgent projects for SpaceX to spend money on.
Most notably, AI and space-related endeavors. Will Elon Musk change his mind with an AI phone at some point down the road? I have no idea. For now, one has to believe the man when he says that the report of such a device is “utterly false.” In my view, I don’t get why the firm would want to get into that business when there are more pressing matters to tackle.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Rarely do investors hold a stock for 100 years. But thinking about what will happen to a business over such a long stretch of time can help investors keep an eye on the long term, critically analyzing the key factors that will make the business successful in the decades to come.
Where might SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) be one century from now? We have a few clues from the company's IPO prospectus.
Today's Change
(
2.69
%) $
4.24
Current Price
$
161.78
These are the foundations for SpaceX's next 100 years To understand what might happen to SpaceX over the next century, it's critical to understand four major catalysts.
The first is the commercialization of the company's Starship megarocket. Starship would be, by far, the biggest rocket ever commercialized at scale. It will dramatically lower the costs involved in getting a payload to space, as well as rapidly accelerate the timeline for getting more things into space. The success of SpaceX's Starship rocket is arguably the most important pillar for getting the next three catalysts below off the ground.
After Starship is commercialized, SpaceX will have a real chance at launching data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers. There are real physics challenges involved with operating data centers in the vacuum of space. But low ambient operating temperatures, vast stretches of free, open "real estate," and huge amounts of free solar energy make the effort too attractive to pass up. If orbital data centers are realized, it makes the next long-term growth catalyst even more valuable.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's Starlink internet service is already profitable. If data centers are scaled in space, however, this division becomes even more attractive. AI companies can send their data into space via Starlink's satellites, running compute on SpaceX's orbital data centers, and sending the results back to Earth on Starlink's network. It's a vertically integrated network that can support what should become a multitrillion-dollar AI economy.
Over the next century, SpaceX should get even more vertically integrated by producing its own AI chips through a venture it calls Terafab: a chip manufacturing initiative with a long-term goal of producing one terawatt of compute hardware each year.
If all of these efforts succeed, SpaceX can shoot for its fourth major growth catalyst: interplanetary life. According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the company seeks "ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets." This is where everything comes together. SpaceX wants to launch Starships to the Moon and beyond, repurposing landed Starships into permanent living and working infrastructure. Starlink satellites and orbital AI data centers, meanwhile, will aid in communication and workflows by overcoming power and latency limits inherent in terrestrial connections.
A century from now, SpaceX could be operating the first permanent human bases on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. But it all begins with successfully commercializing its Starship megarocket.
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.
TechnologyIn this article
SpaceX stock rose in the holiday-shortened week after joining the Russell 1000 index. (Dreamstime)
SpaceX stock had a good first week in the Russell 1000 and the index was all the better for it, too.
