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Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson has been one of the most vocal bears on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock since the Elon Musk–led company went public in June. After SpaceX’s first quarterly report this week as a public company, he weighed in again.

Whitney Tilson on SpaceX StockSpaceX’s second-quarter revenue was up 92% to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates. That’s the good news for investors and a positive for Tilson.

Tilson calls SpaceX "the most overvalued large-cap stock of all time" in his Stanberry Research newsletter.

SpaceX stock tumbled 14% Wednesday as investor dissected the earnings and higher than expected capital spending.

"Even the greatest stock promoter of all time, CEO Elon Musk, couldn’t keep the shares from tumbling," Tilson said.

Tilson said SpaceX only reported "selected cash flow information" for the first six months of 2026 and not for the same period last year, which he said is "totally unacceptable for one of the most valuable companies on the planet."

Capex that is significantly higher than operating cash flow saw free cash flow come in at negative $25 billion for the first six months of the year, something Tilson said should scare investors.

Tilson said SpaceX has two great businesses with Starlink and space, but a terrible one with xAI.

"xAI is dragging down these two great businesses. It’s burning huge amounts of cash in an attempt to keep up with much larger competitors."

Tilson’s bearish comments came ahead of a share unlock of 911.5 million shares set to be tradeable on Thursday. The former hedge fund manager said this will see the float, or number of share eligible to trade, nearly triple.

"I have to imagine that many holders will be eager to sell to diversify – especially in light of the stock’s absurd valuation."

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What’s SpaceX Worth?While stock analysts have price targets for SpaceX that are higher than the current price and IPO price, Tilson sees more downside ahead.

SpaceX reported quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion, which would be $31.4 billion on an annualized basis. Musk says SpaceX will hit $100 billion in annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026.

Tilson doesn’t see Musk’s prediction coming true and meets in the middle.

With an "extremely generous" annual run rate of $50 billion by the end of the year, SpaceX would be worth $500 billion based on 10 times revenue, which Tilson said is "equally generous."

"So that would mean the stock would be overvalued by at least 3 times – by roughly $1 trillion."

SpaceX has a current market capitalization of nearly $1.5 trillion.

SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is up 1% to $109.36 on Thursday versus post-IPO trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. The shares are down 32% from their public debut.

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Space stocks are climbing early Thursday, led by SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) shares rising 3% to $111.14 as the company’s first and largest post-IPO share lockup tranche expires. Evidently, the feared selloff didn’t occur this morning.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are jumping 5% to $72, while Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares are rising 5% to $78.57. Meanwhile, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 1% to $47.19 as sector momentum builds.

The rally caps a volatile stretch for SpaceX stock, which had been trading below its June IPO price after a post-earnings selloff.

Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger the Feared Selloff Today marks the first and largest of nine staggered lockup tranches for SpaceX. The tranche unlocks 911.5 million shares, 143% more than the 638.9 million shares floated in June’s IPO, more than doubling the public float to 11.8% of shares outstanding from 4.9%.

According to Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian, Wall Street is split on SPCX stock. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas frames the unlock as a buying opportunity and calls SpaceX a potential generational compounder, while Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens expects most eligible shares to be sold given low cost basis but says much of the dilution may already be priced in. Bank of America’s Ron Epstein calls it a near-term technical drag rather than a verdict on the company, and JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth cites significant pre-positioning ahead of the expiration.

A StockTwits AI sentiment summary describes a divided community on SPCX stock, with the bulls pointing to institutional demand and squeeze potential and the bears arguing that the valuation is disconnected from reality. Reddit swung sharply into the event as well. A widely upvoted post titled “SpaceX will plummet on 8/6” drew 743 upvotes and 226 comments before bullish tone reasserted itself.

Fundamental support comes from SpaceX’s Q2 2026 results. The company reported revenue of $7.81 billion, beating estimates by 14.6%, with AI segment revenue surging 247% year over year (YoY) to $2.56 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million.

AST SpaceMobile Accelerates Its European Rollout AST SpaceMobile stock is rallying on accelerated network integration testing across the UK, Ireland, Romania, France, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Ukraine. Announced carrier partners include Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD), Orange, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom, and Vodafone Ukraine.

The rollout leverages AST’s BlueBird satellite constellation and nearly 60 mobile network operator partners representing over 3 billion subscribers. AST shares are up 42% over the past year as enthusiasm builds around a European commercial ramp.

Rocket Lab Notches Another Electron Success Rocket Lab shares are climbing after the company completed its 92nd Electron mission (“The Grain Goddess Provides”), the 8th launch for the iQPS Earth-imaging (QPS-SAR) constellation with 100% mission success for that customer. Another 10 dedicated Electron launches are booked by iQPS before 2030.

Rocket Lab’s Q1 2026 revenue reached $200.4 million, up 63.5% YoY, and record backlog sits at $2.2 billion. Rocket Lab was also selected for the Department of War’s Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome for America in partnership with Raytheon, and the Neutron medium-lift vehicle remains on track for its debut later in 2026.

Sector Momentum Lifts the Broader Complex Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) shares are rising 2% to $2.94, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) shares are jumping 8% to $15.09, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are climbing 4% to $23.29.

The Procure Space ETF offers diversified exposure to the theme, with AST SpaceMobile among its top holdings at a 3.5% weight. The fund is concentrated in a handful of names and has shown meaningful volatility, so position sizing matters.

What to Watch The near-term put/call ratio on SpaceX options expiring August 7 sits at 1.42, signaling active hedging into the event, while the full-chain ratio is 1.1. Polymarket traders assign a 97.1% probability that SpaceX stock finishes the week above $90 and a 76% probability above $100.

Investors can watch for whether SpaceX stock holds its bid into the close, since a sustained rally despite newly unlocked supply would strengthen the technical case for the shares. Rocket Lab’s Q2 2026 report is due August 10, offering the next scheduled catalyst for the sector.

SpaceX stock absorbed a feared technical overhang without breaking, and satellite peers are riding the sentiment shift. A cautious, moderate position size is prudent given the volatility across many names in the space sector over the past month.

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A retail investor featured in a Wall Street Journal investigation thought he had bought his ticket to the SpaceX bonanza. He wired money into a special purpose vehicle marketed as offering “pre-IPO exposure” to SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction). After the June IPO, he learned his promised shares had already been sold before public trading began, capping his upside. He is one small casualty in a shadow market where bankers estimate at least 1,000 SPVs are tied to SpaceX stock alone.

How the SPV Stack Got This Tall Demand for pre-IPO SpaceX allocations was so severe that investors inside one SPV would form a new SPV using their own shares as the underlying, creating structures stacked four or five layers deep. Each layer charges its own fees: management fees, carried interest, and access fees that range from under 5% to as much as 18%. A Forbes analysis found that in a hypothetical three-layer SPV structure with typical 2%-management/20%-carry terms at each layer, an investor putting in $2 million that grows to $10 million at IPO could see nearly $5 million eaten by middlemen fees before taxes. The end investor writes the check. Everyone in between eats first.

You Don’t Know What You Own Lower-tier SPV investors typically won’t learn their real share count until SpaceX’s lockups lift, a rolling process TechCrunch reported would unfold over roughly four months, with the bottom layer of a multi-tier chain potentially waiting eight or nine months for final distribution. First-layer SPVs have about 30 days to distribute shares once they receive them; each layer below must then wait its turn. SpaceX has been actively pruning its cap table. Per Forbes, that has included removing Chinese money that entered via a Delaware SPV, meaning some investors may find their “SpaceX exposure” was never honored by the company at all.

The Ecosystem This Lives In The SPV underworld has produced its own criminal docket, separate from anything alleged against SpaceX. Giovanni Pennetta, manager of Sestante Capital, was sentenced to four years in prison for fabricating access to nonexistent allocations in Anduril. Linqto, a Bay Area firm that marketed pre-IPO access (including to SpaceX) for as little as $1,000 with “no hidden fees,” is now in bankruptcy and under SEC, DOJ, and FINRA investigation over alleged undisclosed markups exceeding 150%. In January, three SPV brokers in New York pleaded guilty to conspiracy and fraud charges after allegedly pocketing millions in hidden markups while raising $185 million from more than 1,000 investors. As FJ Labs’s Jeff Weinstein told Forbes: “Half the people involved in this ecosystem, maybe more than half, are not registered broker-dealers. This entire grifting process is illegal.”

The Squeeze Is Landing Today SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year and well ahead of the roughly $6.9 billion consensus. Shares fell 13.61% on August 5, closing at $108.27, as investors fixated on $18.4 billion in quarterly capex, about $15.8 billion of it AI-related. The stock is off roughly 33% since its June IPO. The first post-IPO lockup expires today, and could increase the tradable share count by more than 140%, according to CNBC.

Two things now collide. For SPV holders whose shares exist, distributions begin arriving into a falling market. For those whose “exposure” was layered, resold, or never delivered, the discovery phase is starting. The next earnings call will show whether SpaceX’s AI bill is compounding faster than Starlink’s cash flow. The next four to nine months will show how many pre-IPO promises were real.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

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$111 Calls See Massive Premium SpikeAhead of Thursday’s opening bell, the options market is flashing a distinctly bullish signal that contradicts conventional Wall Street wisdom. Traders have heavily accumulated SPCX call options expiring on Friday, Aug. 7, specifically targeting the $111 strike price.

According to options chain data on Nasdaq, the premium for these short-term $111 calls spiked dramatically on Wednesday, surging by $2.40 to close at $6.55 per contract.

This unusual options activity—effectively tripling the contract’s baseline price—suggests that “smart money” expects the stock to swiftly absorb any selling pressure and surge past the $111 mark by the end of the week.

Analysts Question Market OptimismThis aggressive bullish positioning directly challenges the bearish narrative surrounding the company’s first major lock-up expiration, which makes roughly 911 million previously restricted shares eligible for trading.

The Future Fund’s Gary Black has been highly critical of investors buying into the aerospace giant ahead of the unlock. “This makes no sense with 911.5M new SPCX shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size,” Black stated, questioning the logic of buying the recent dip.

However, the impending dilution is not a single, instantaneous event. The expiration of these locked shares—primarily held by executives, employees, and early investors—will happen in a staggered manner and go on till December, and Elon Musk‘s personal shares will be locked until June 2027.

This will gradually increase the freely tradable float rather than flooding the market entirely on Thursday.

A ‘Capex Tug of War’While SpaceX has faced recent downward pressure due to a massive $18.4 billion capital expenditure outlay, some view the investments as a long-term catalyst.

Tech analyst Dan Ives recently characterized the dynamic as a “capex tug of war between SpaceX and investors,” emphasizing that it is a “necessary buildout.” For now, options traders are betting that SpaceX’s stock will launch higher, ignoring the dilution fears altogether.

SpaceX Stock Price ActionSPCX shares closed Wednesday at $108.27 per share and hovered around $110 to $111, up by 2.53% in premarket trading.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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Coming into Thursday trading, SpaceX stock was down 20% from its $135 IPO price and down more than 50% from its record high of $225.64 a share reached on June. 16. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg)

SpaceX investors, with their heads in the clouds after a first-quarter earnings call that included trillion-dollar AI-fueled revenue projections, have to come back to Earth to deal with more mundane matters, such as trading technicalities.

Eight weeks ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure goliath rewrote history. Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX -13.61%) raised more capital than any initial public offering (IPO) before it, $85.7 billion (including the underwriters' overallotment), and quickly galloped to a nearly $3 trillion valuation in its first week as a public company.

However, the retail investor buzz that preceded SpaceX's debut has since faded -- and so has SpaceX's stock. The company's shares have plunged 52% below their all-time intraday high, as of the end of July, and things may be about to get a whole lot worse.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's early release-eligible insiders can start selling their shares SpaceX's IPO was nontraditional in several respects. It was the largest public debut in Wall Street's history, with a whopping 21 underwriters. It also featured an accelerated and staggered share-unlock schedule for early release-eligible insiders.

An insider is a high-ranking executive, board member, or early investor who may possess non-public information. Traditionally, companies going public prevent insiders from selling their shares for the first 180 calendar days to ensure that they're not taking advantage of early IPO gains or retail investor buzz.

Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF

-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 SpaceX marched to its own drum when establishing its lockup schedule. The first share-unlock milestone occurs on the second trading day after the company's first quarterly report as a public company, which was Aug. 4. Today, Aug. 6, marks the second trading day post-earnings. Every two to three weeks through mid-December, new unlock milestones occur, allowing early release-eligible insiders to sell their shares.

This particular unlock event allow 20% of early release-eligible shares to be sold by insiders, equating to approximately 911.5 million shares. Based on SpaceX's July ended share price, this represents up to $99 billion in potential selling pressure waiting in the wings.

Image source: Getty Images.

Insider sales can swamp retail investors and SpaceX stock But it's not just insiders having the ability to sell that's the problem. SpaceX's IPO float (i.e., the number of tradable shares) can exacerbate this headwind.

Typically, companies going public sell between 10% and 25% of their outstanding shares. Although SpaceX sold roughly 555.6 million shares in its IPO, this represented less than 5% of its outstanding shares. Passive funds have gobbled up a sizable percentage of these shares following the company's fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000. In other words, a strong argument can be made that SpaceX's low float has provided an artificial boost to its share price.

SpaceX IPO float unlock timeline:

Initial free float: ~4.9%

Potential float available:

Aug 8: ~11.8%

Aug 20: ~15.2%

Sep 9: ~17.7%

Sep 24: ~20.1%

Oct 9: ~22.6%

Oct 24: ~25.1%

Dec 8: ~40%

Mar 18, 2027: ~44.1%

May 17, 2027: ~46.7%

Jun 12, 2027: ~50.8%

Musk's 46.1%... https://t.co/NBcYDs8caF pic.twitter.com/uORObGn042

-- Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 19, 2026 Opening the proverbial dam to early release-eligible insiders can effectively flood the market with newly tradable shares, swamping SpaceX's stock and retail investors.

To be clear, it's highly unlikely that every eligible early release insider (Musk is not among them) will be running for the exit. Nevertheless, several early investors and executives have had limited or no avenues to cash in their chips amid SpaceX's decade-long parabolic valuation climb.

Aug. 6 may mark the start of a long and drawn-out period of weakness for Musk's AI and space titan as Wall Street struggles to absorb several rounds of insider selling pressure.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index The Dow’s fifth straight higher close tells you the rally is not entirely a technology story. Industrials have been catching the bid while oil cools and earnings stay firm. Lower crude takes inflation pressure off the rate trade and gives the parts of the market that had been stuck all summer room to work.

But the Dow cannot carry the indexes alone. If the Nasdaq keeps falling while the industrial average climbs, that is rotation, not a broadening rally. The S&P 500 lost 0.17% Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83%. The split is already showing.

Stocks in the News Warner Bros. Discovery reports before the bell Thursday. Airbnb and Lyft report after the close. The market has been punishing companies that miss on revenue, margins or guidance this earnings season. None of these names will set the direction for the major indexes but weak results from any of them add to the defensive tone.

What to Watch SpaceX’s lockup is the event that sets the tone Thursday. If the stock absorbs the new supply without another hard break, the AI spending trade stabilizes and the Nasdaq has a chance to recover. If insiders sell into a stock already below its IPO price, the pressure spreads to every name connected to AI infrastructure costs and Asia’s overnight damage gets worse.

The Dow has records and industrial earnings behind it. The Nasdaq has a confirmed closing price reversal top and is already back below its 50-day moving average. Friday’s payrolls decides whether the rate trade reassembles or the relief continues, but today is about whether the AI spending story can absorb a flood of new shares and a global tech selloff at the same time. Cook’s willingness to hike adds another layer of risk if the labor data cooperates.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) share unlock timeline has two important milestones this month, with the free float set to jump to 11.8% today, August 6, and to 15.2% on August 20.

As the initial public offering (IPO) placed about 639 million shares into public circulation, the releases will significantly increase the stock’s tradable supply, potentially more than doubling it if the company proceeds with the schedule as planned.

While there is no certainty that early investors or employees will sell their holdings, a large number of new shares entering the market could have a meaningful impact on SpaceX share prices. Accordingly, we’ve asked ChatGPT to predict SpaceX stock price after the August 20 share unlock.

AI predicts SpaceX stock price on August 20 In response, ChatGPT came up with three different scenarios, each with its own price range. The least probable one, with a SpaceX stock price target of $125-135, has a 20% chance of happening, and it assumes limited insider selling and a short squeeze pushing the prices up.

Slightly more likely, with a 30% chance of happening, is the bear case, which sees the price dropping to a $90-102 range if heavy insider selling persists and leads to weak market sentiment.

The most likely scenario, which has a 50% probability of coming true, assumes moderate selling and fading volatility. In this case, SpaceX shares will trade at $110-120, which is around 11% above the current price of $108 but still significantly below the IPO price of $135.

ChatGPT predicts SpaceX stock price after August 20 unlock. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT Narrowing the base case, Chat GPT set its final SpaceX price target after August unlocks at $116.

The price, the AI reasoned, assumed moderate selling after today’s 912 billion SPCX share unlock, which it says will create near-term volatility but stabilize in the next couple of weeks.

SpaceX price prediction August 2026. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT This potential volatility will stem from the space company’s unusually limited public float. Notably, at the time of its IPO, less than 5% of shares outstanding were available for public trading, creating a scarcity that fueled strong buying demand and drove the stock sharply higher.

With hundreds of millions of additional shares now eligible to trade, investors will be watching closely to see whether insiders take the opportunity to cash out.

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Joel Shulman of ERShares says Starlink is SpaceX's crown jewel, driving its growing revenue. He also believes xAI's Grok could build a bigger moat than Anthropic and OpenAI if it succeeds in establishing data centers in space, adding that he remains bullish on the space and satellite communications company.

SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX is a great company to follow and love, being well-positioned in the global race to commercialize space. It provides numerous opportunities for humanity and investors, but now may not be the best time to buy the stock.

SpaceX Today

$108.29 -17.04 (-13.60%)

As of 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$104.83▼

$225.64Price Target$229.39

Still suffering from its post-IPO malaise, the market shows signs of a bottom but has yet to confirm it. In the current scenario, SPCX is just as likely to continue its downtrend as to recover, and there is more impetus to sell than to buy.

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Critical details from the initial earnings report include cash burn: SpaceX literally fuels its rockets with cash and is firing more rockets at a faster pace each quarter. In this environment, short sellers are a risk that cannot be ignored, and early signs suggest they are leaning into the trade.

MarketBeat’s data reveal that short interest as of July 15 was low but has risen steadily since the IPO and is on track to continue rising until another catalyst emerges.

SpaceX Has Great Quarter, But Cash Burn Still a ProblemSpaceX had a great quarter with growth across all segments. Systemwide, revenue increased by 92% year-over-year to outpace the consensus by nearly a billion dollars. The $7.8 billion reported was 1,300 basis points better than expected, underpinned by strength in AI.

AI grew by more than 200% and Connectivity by 66%, making them the two largest and most important segments. At nearly 88% of net revenue, they make the "Space" in SpaceX almost an afterthought, one that is sucking profits out of the other two segments.

Margin details highlight the importance of Connectivity, the single largest segment, to the near-term outlook and AI to the long term. Connectivity, which includes Starlink, is the only profitable segment, and its profitability has so far been insufficient to offset losses in the others.

The good news is that the AI segment losses are tied to data center capacity that is coming online over the next few months and quarters. It will at least begin generating profits within the foreseeable future, while the Space segment may burn cash indefinitely.

Guidance was optimistic, but presents a hurdle for the market. The company says it's on track to hit a $100 billion annual run rate by year-end, and $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. These guidance updates signal that the capacity ramp is progressing smoothly, but now the company has to hit those targets. The risk is that targets won’t be met and profits won't impress, given the high expectations and ongoing cash burn. CFO Bret Johnson says capital expenditures (CapEx) will run at a similarly high pace in upcoming quarters, well above what market forecasts had initially predicted.

Analyst Optimism May Not Be Enough to Support Price ActionAnalysts are optimistic about SpaceX’s future and show high conviction, with 39 analysts tracked. They rate the stock as a Moderate Buy with 72% Buy-side bias and triple-digit upside potential, but may begin to temper their outlook, given the increased expectation for cash burn.

In this scenario, a downshift in analyst sentiment could send the SPCX market into freefall, with the stock not recovering until earnings traction is regained. Institutions are likewise a risk, as they may sit on the sidelines until SpaceX offers them an incentive to buy, and spending money isn’t the way to do it.

The Risks SpaceX Bulls Are UnderestimatingSpaceX’s biggest risk lies in its valuation. Even with the post-IPO sell-off, the company is valued at over $1.4 trillion, with the market pricing in robust growth. Assuming SpaceX can execute its strategy, scale launches, and drive margins, the stock trades at pennies on the dollar relative to 2035’s consensus estimate. However, the forecast is predicated on flawless execution, leaving the stock at precariously high valuations today. At recent prices, the stock could shed another 50% and still be highly valued. There is upside potential for this market, but the risks far outweigh the rewards.

What SpaceX bulls underestimate comes down to a handful of costs and risks: the immense expense of space development, the company's parallel AI buildout, the drag that thin profitability puts on market dynamics, and the insider lockups set to expire on a staggered schedule. Those lockups are the sharpest near-term risk—they open the door to billions in insider sales with the first tranche unlocking alongside the Q2 earnings report.

Additionally, uncertain profitability is a barrier for institutional ownership, specifically indices such as the S&P 500, which influence trillions in underlying investment dollars. S&P Dow Jones denied the company early approval, choosing instead to enforce the 12-month listing and GAAP profitability requirements.

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One of Wall Street’s most quoted tech analysts, Dan Ives may no longer be issuing price targets in his new role — but he’s still shaping the narrative. His latest focus: SpaceX’s long‑term vision after its first earnings report as a public company.

Dan Ives on SPCX StockSpaceX shares slid the most in six weeks Wednesday in response to the company’s second-quarter results. While the rockets-to-AI firm beat Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, a spending jump has undermined investor sentiment.

"The capex tug of war between SpaceX and investors is a necessary buildout that will require patience," Ives said, as reported by Bloomberg, comparing the firm’s heavy spending to similar allocations by other technology giants.

The senior managing director at Yorkville Ives said that that given what SpaceX is building — and what it plans next — "the only way to get there is capex."

Sharing his views on why SpaceX is pouring money into AI and data infrastructure even as its space and telecom businesses grow, Dan Ives put it simply: "The gold at the end of the rainbow is around data, AI."

"You’re buying Musk, you’re buying the vision,” the former Wedbush analyst said of SpaceX and CEO Elon Musk.

SpaceX showing early signs of AI monetization is a clear positive for Dan Ives, and he says it shows the company is winning its capex balancing act. As companies take on more debt, they have to show monetization, he added.

Ives previously spent eight years as an analyst at Wedbush covering tech stocks. Among his covered stocks were Musk-led Tesla and SpaceX, which he was often extremely bullish on.

After SpaceX’s IPO, Ives previously initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and $190 price target.

SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is down 8.4% to $114.84 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. SpaceX shares are down 28.8% since going public.

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SpaceX stock is among today’s weakest performers. Why is SPCX stock dropping? Despite Major Q2 Beats, Starlink ARPU Compression and Slowing MomentumStarlink’s average revenue per user, which held at $66 per month in the second quarter, was flat from the first quarter but down roughly 22% from the $85 recorded a year earlier. That steady compression raises questions about whether per-user economics can hold as the platform pushes deeper into less affluent markets to reach its next wave of subscribers.

While year-over-year comparisons look strong, revenue on a sequential basis moved lower from the second half of 2025 into the first half of 2026, a trend that undercuts the narrative of uninterrupted momentum that had supported the stock’s premium valuation since its IPO.

According to the BBC, the net loss for the quarter totaled $143 million and the cumulative first-half loss reached $2 billion, a period during which total quarterly expenditures ballooned to $18.3 billion, more than six times the year-ago level, with AI investment responsible for the overwhelming majority of that expansion.

Another concern is a quarter-over-quarter decline in both Falcon launches and mass delivered to orbit, a three-month pullback that weighed on the Space segment, which generated an operating loss of $542 million during the period. The AI segment added another $1.26 billion in operating losses, leaving Connectivity’s $1.66 billion operating profit as the only division contributing positively to the bottom line.

A Falcon 9 Upper Stage Strikes the MoonAccording to the BBC, a drifting Falcon 9 upper stage struck the lunar surface near the Einstein Crater on Wednesday after spending months on a collision trajectory. NASA confirmed the event carries no risk to Earth and will monitor the site for research purposes, though scientists have raised broader concerns about protecting Apollo landing zones and undisturbed lunar soil as traffic around the Moon increases.

SPCX Shares Are PlummetingSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 12.08% at $110.19 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) just pulled the curtain on its first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public firm. And, for the most part, investors were not all that impressed, with shares of SpaceX tumbling just shy of 8% on Tuesday’s after-hours session, giving up much of the gains it enjoyed on the day. Indeed, it seems like an 8-10% pop on any given day is not at all out of the ordinary for Elon Musk’s $1.5 trillion rocket company.

While the numbers themselves were decent, with the firm topping estimates for the second quarter with a narrower-than-expected loss, with Starlink leading the way, investors appeared increasingly concerned about the heavy CapEx.

There’s no question that it takes a ton of CapEx to play not only in rockets, but with AI. And, in many ways, SpaceX is as much an AI company as it is a play on the future of the space economy. With the orbital data center boom underway and the potential for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Optimus robots to enrich the SpaceX story further, the two technologies do go hand-in-hand with the name.

That CapEx figure was alarming to some, but it shouldn’t be surprising given the price to play in AI With hyperscalers reporting pretty solid numbers to go with a strong reception despite their hefty CapEx bills (which should be baked into the share price by now), perhaps it’s a mystery as to why SpaceX’s latest CapEx figures caused such an upsetting after-hours reaction.

At the very least, Starlink is generating serious cash flows. And with things going quite well with Starship, it certainly feels like SpaceX is headed in the right direction.

With a still-lofty valuation and an ever-increasing price to play in AI (something I highlighted in prior pieces as a top reason to avoid buying shares of SpaceX immediately after they went live on the public markets), I do think those looking for SpaceX to make a sudden surge into profitability are going to be waiting quite a while, especially as the firm continues spending big money to keep up in this massive AI buildout.

In my view, SpaceX isn’t the kind of company that you’d want to shift into profitability, anyway. If you want growth, every penny ought to be reinvested in the growth engine, whether that’s AI, rockets, orbital data centers, or both.

Of course, the firm could probably achieve a more comfortable balance as Starlink really starts pulling its weight to help pay the bills. But, at the end of the day, AI feels like a spend-now or regret-later kind of environment. And, like it or hate it, $18.4 billion in second-quarter CapEx seems to be in the right spot, given where the firm’s at today.

An “insane” opportunity to buy? Time will tell. Time will tell where shares of SpaceX open tomorrow, but Elon Musk took to X with his thoughts on the new price of admission, which is $10-20 below the IPO price of $135 per share.

Elon Musk, a man whose ambition knows no bounds, seems to think that the latest sell-off is more of an “insane” opportunity to do some buying, even if it means having to put up with more pain and volatility over the nearer term.

With many analysts standing by their price targets and buy ratings, I do think that the sell-side community sides with Musk, especially after a violent 42% implosion from peak levels of $185 per share. SpaceX’s spending is giving AI sales a big shot in the arm, and with a Street-high $800.00 price target in place, it certainly feels like Musk is right in that recent volatility has created more of a window to buy than anything else.

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SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares remained under pressure on Wednesday, with shares falling about 13% to around $109, as analysts remained broadly positive following the company's first earnings report as a public company, arguing the results reinforced its long-term growth outlook despite ongoing investor concerns over capital spending.

Bank of America reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and $235 price target, noting that SpaceX delivered a “strong Q2 print," beating expectations on both revenue and profitability while providing constructive disclosures and additional detail on its long-term growth plans.

The firm acknowledged that the stock continues to be weighed down by elevated capital expenditure expectations and questions around monetizing its artificial intelligence and Starlink Mobile businesses, but wrote it is now more positive on the company's positioning across its key markets.

The analysts highlighted the performance of SpaceX's AI segment, which exceeded its expectations on the strength of third-party compute sales. Bank of America wrote that the company is investing heavily in terrestrial computing infrastructure ahead of its planned deployment of orbital AI satellites, ending the second quarter with 1.4 gigawatts of capacity and targeting more than 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026 and between 5 and 10 gigawatts in 2027. It also expects compute agreements with Anthropic and Google to accelerate growth in the second half of 2026 and estimates the AI business will generate about $24.5 billion in revenue next year.

Looking ahead, Bank of America identified the upcoming Flight 14 Starship test, expected in late August or early September, as an important milestone. The analysts wrote that the mission should provide additional clarity on the company's progress toward rapid rocket reusability, with investors expected to focus on the Starship upper stage's orbital reentry, heat shield performance, and controlled tower landings for both stages.

Deutsche Bank analysts also reiterated their ‘Buy’ rating but lowered their price target to $235 from $255.

The firm wrote that SpaceX delivered strong second quarter results that "easily" beat both its own and consensus estimates, driven by upside in AI Infrastructure and Starlink Enterprise & Government.

The bank said the company's near-term growth trajectory now appears stronger than previously anticipated, prompting it to raise its forecasts and see a faster path to $100 billion in annual revenue. However, Deutsche Bank also noted that capital spending appears set to ramp significantly in 2027 as the company targets adding at least another 3 gigawatts of compute capacity.

Deutsche Bank wrote it remains "steadfast" in its long-term bullish thesis on SpaceX, while acknowledging the stock has been under pressure in recent weeks.

The firm also highlighted continued momentum across the company's space business, noting management expects Starship Test Flight 14 to carry Starlink V3 broadband satellites into operational orbit and may attempt a tower catch of the second-stage spacecraft.

Deutsche Bank added that management appeared confident in its approach to addressing concerns around Starship's heat shield and noted the company aims to deploy 1,000 next-generation V3 broadband satellites by the end of the second or third quarter of 2027, which it estimates would require roughly 20 Starship launches.

SpaceX (SPCX) announced its highly anticipated earnings report after the close on August 4. The shares surged leading up to the report before experiencing a sharp reversal in trading sentiment post-close. While operational performance remained robust, investor focus rapidly shifted toward the company’s aggressive AI spending and oversupply concerns regarding the expiration of the first post-IPO lockup period.

Key Takeaways Following SpaceX’s first earnings report, the stock fell approximately 9%. This was largely due to a 105% surge in AI-related capital expenditures, which rose to $15.83 billion in Q2. On August 6, the post-IPO lockup expiration will free 911.5 million insider shares, threatening immediate downward stock pressure. The Baron First Principles ETF (RONB) and the Procure Space ETF (UFO) provide thematic exposure to SpaceX, with the company representing 30.71% and 3.80% of their respective assets. Market Response to Q2 Performance SpaceX delivered strong headline numbers reporting a loss per share of -$0.09 on revenue of $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street consensus estimates of a -$0.26 loss per share and revenue of $6.93 billion. The company’s net loss narrowed from $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to $541 million in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 191% year over year from $1.2 billion to $3.5 billion. 

Segment revenues continued to perform in the second quarter, with Space revenue coming in at $962 million compared to consensus estimates of $835 million. Driven by the company’s Starlink satellite business, connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.83 billion. Lastly, the company’s AI business — formerly xAI — posted $2.56 billion in revenue, beating consensus estimates of $2.18 billion, according to StreetAccount. 

SpaceX climbed approximately 9.5% leading up to the announcement as investors positioned for positive results. Despite better than expected headline numbers, SpaceX stock plunged roughly 9% following the announcement — as of early afternoon August 5. The decline is attributed to a doubling in AI capex. AI spending grew from $7.72 billion in Q1 to $15.83 billion in Q2. 

Upcoming Supply Pressures Outside of earnings, the stock faces added supply pressures leading up to the expiration of the post-IPO lockup period. On August 6, the lockup expiration will free 911.5 million insider shares, approximately 12% of the total shares available for sale, according to YahooI Finance. The new wave of shares expected to hit the market this week could triple SpaceX’s public float, with an additional 12.9 billion shares scheduled to be freed by mid-2027 according to Reuters analysis. 

The expected surge in shares available for sale could create downward pressure on the stock if buyer demand cannot match the new volume. With the company still valued at roughly 49 times expected revenue, insiders who acquired shares for a fraction of the $135 IPO price are expected to cash in on massive gains. 

Thematic SpaceX Exposure While SpaceX appears across a diverse range of portfolios, the Baron First Principles ETF (RONB) makes the company its top holding at a current weight of 30.71%. RONB actively targets U.S. growth companies across all market capitalizations. Through a first-principles approach, investments are made in companies believed to create long-term value through durable competitive advantages and founder-led management teams. RONB faced significant declines in July, bringing the fund’s year-to-date return down to -10.67%

The Procure Space ETF (UFO) also provides exposure to SpaceX by tracking the VettaFi Space Index. This index targets pure-play space economy companies involved in satellite communications, launch services, and space-based technologies. The fund has climbed 23.23% year to date with SpaceX currently accounting for 3.80% of UFO’s assets. UFO’s largest positions include Garmin (GRMN), Trimble (TRMB), and ViaSat (VSAT),  providing broader diversification. 

SpaceX in Broad-Market Indexes Moving beyond thematic funds, SpaceX’s footprint extends into some broad-market index funds. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) provides SpaceX exposure by tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index. SpaceX is currently a 1.04% weight in QQQ, alongside mega-cap tech leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 in early July after revised index requirements allowed newly listed companies ranked in the top 40 by market capitalization to enter after 15 trading days. So far in 2026, QQQ has returned 18.11%,  driven by strong tech earnings and ongoing AI adoption. 

Taking a much more diversified approach with over 1000 holdings, the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB) holds SpaceX as a 0.09% weight. Tracking the Russell 1000 Index, the fund provides broad exposure to U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks. IWB has climbed 13.55% year to date, reflecting broad gains across U.S. markets. 

Notably, SpaceX does not meet the inclusion criteria for the S&P 500. The index requires constituents to trade publicly for at least 12 months, delaying potential inclusion until June 2027 at the earliest. S&P also requires companies to post GAAP profit in the most recent quarter and across the four trailing quarters. SpaceX reported a net loss in the most recent quarter and has never been profitable, according to Reuters analysis. 

For more news, information, and analysis visit the Thematic Investing Content Hub. 

VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”) is the index provider for UFO , for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, UFO is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi, and VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of UFO. 

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -10.84%) just reported its highly anticipated first quarterly report as a public company. Investors are selling the news, though. SpaceX stock plunged as much as 13% before paring that loss.

The stock is trading well below its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 per share, and the question for investors is when the stock will bottom out or whether it offers enough value to buy now.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Real revenue growth SpaceX was priced to perfection in its debut in the public markets. The company itself is delivering on expected growth, though. Revenue of $7.8 billion represented 92% year-over-year growth. CEO Elon Musk told investors that growth will not only continue but also accelerate. He expects SpaceX to be generating revenue at a $100 billion annual run rate by the end of this year.

Musk also advanced the company's goal of achieving $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, noting that it could reach this target as early as 2029. That seems achievable, since the company intends to build AI compute infrastructure in space, serving all hyperscalers. There doesn't seem to be any competition for doing so at this time.

Today's Change

(

-10.84

%) $

-13.59

Current Price

$

111.74

That makes the stock's decline an opportunity for long-term investors. SpaceX shares should move higher over time if Musk accomplishes much of what he plans. The AI capital spending that has investors concerned today will pay dividends in the long run.

Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX (SPCX) experienced a notable decline in its stock price following the release of its first public quarterly report. The company reported a robust Q2, wit

SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell more than 10% in Wednesday morning trading as investors focused on a sharp increase in capital spending, overshadowing the company's l

Araz Feyzi says SpaceX (SPCX) is experiencing a natural and normal repricing after its first public earnings report. Andrew Chanin wonders if the selling is driven more by the lock-up expiry on Thursday rather than the earnings report.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock fell more than 6% on August 5, despite delivering a blowout debut quarter, as SpaceX shareholders expect to unlock over $100 billion worth of shares on August 6, 2026.

A total of 911,500,000 SpaceX shares, held by early investors and employees, will become tradable on Thursday, as stipulated in its Initial Public Offering (IPO) prospectus filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With SpaceX stock trading at about $114.39 at press time, tomorrow’s unlock is valued at approximately $104.266 billion.

SpaceX has13.1818 billion in total common shares outstanding, with 638,888,888 shares, or 4.85% of the total, sold during the IPO. After the first major share unlock, SPCX’s outstanding shares will increase by 6.91% to 1,550,388,888 shares, or roughly 11.76%.

SpaceX will not unlock the additional 455.8 million shares that were to be released alongside the 911.5 million batch. Moreover, SPCX stock did not trade at least 30% above its $135 IPO price, for at least five of the ten consecutive trading days ending on and including the first earnings release date. 

As a result, the next share unlock for this company will be 1.3 billion shares after the second earnings, scheduled for late October or early November 2026. 

SPCX stock outlook After a relief rally catalyzed by the record debut quarterly earnings, SPCX stock dropped 6.04% over the past 24 hours, trading at $114.39 at the time of reporting. Consequently, the company had a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion.

SPCX stock 24-hour chart. Source: Finbold The sharp uptick in SPCX’s outstanding shares could drive further bearish sentiment in the near term.

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Key Takeaways SpaceX topped Q2 estimates, but shares fell after hours on AI spending and lockup concerns. Starlink growth and the NVIDIA partnership strengthened SpaceX's long-term AI outlook. RONB, MARS, WARP, ORBX, XSPC and WSPC are ETFs to watch after SpaceX's earnings. SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) delivered stronger-than-expected second-quarter results in its first earnings report as a public company, though the stock slipped in after-hours trading amid concerns over rising AI spending and an upcoming lockup expiration. The stock gained 9.4% on Aug. 4, 2026, while it slumped 7.5% after hours (at the time of writing).

The aerospace company reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.72 billion and improving sharply from $4.7 billion in the first quarter. Revenues from the space segment came in at $962 million against $835 million expected, according to StreetAccount, while revenues from the connectivity segment came in at $4.29 billion in Q2 versus $3.83 billion expected, as quoted on CNBC.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $2.0 billion, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The company’s net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion. Loss per share of 9 cents was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents per share. Since opening at $150 on June 12, SpaceX’s stock has dropped by 16% as of Tuesday’s close.

AI Spending Continues to SurgeSpaceX's AI business posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion, narrower than analysts' estimate of $2.39 billion. However, the company's AI investments accelerated significantly, with spending soaring to $15.8 billion in Q2 from $7.7 billion in the previous quarter, per Yahoo Finance.

While investors welcomed the stronger earnings, concerns remain over whether SpaceX's aggressive AI infrastructure investments will generate sufficient long-term returns. Revenues from the AI segment came in at $2.56 billion, better than the $2.18 billion expected, according to StreetAccount, as quoted on CNBC.

NVIDIA Partnership Expands Space-Based AI AmbitionsSpaceX also unveiled a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to develop its Starmind AI-1 payload, aimed at bringing "datacenter-class compute" into orbit.

The project will utilize NVIDIA's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, boosting SpaceX's peak satellite computing capacity to 250 kW, per Yahoo Finance.

Lockup Expiration Poses Near-Term RiskDespite the earnings beat, investors remain focused on the company's upcoming lockup expiration.

According to Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson, the Aug. 6 lockup expiration could release hundreds of millions of insider shares – roughly three times the current tradable float. The additional supply could allow insiders to sell up to 20% of outstanding shares, potentially keeping pressure on the stock, per the same Yahoo Finance article.

Starlink Continues to Drive GrowthSpaceX's satellite internet business remained a bright spot during the quarter.

Starlink subscribers surpassed 12 million by the end of Q2, while the connectivity segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.60 billion, exceeding analysts' estimate of $2.41 billion, per Yahoo Finance.

Musk reiterated his long-term vision for the business, saying it is possible that Starlink could eventually provide the majority of the world's internet connectivity.

Starship Milestones in FocusBeyond earnings, investors are watching SpaceX's next Starship mission, where the company aims to make the first-ever tower catch of the upper stage using Mechazilla arms during Flight 14, pending a successful data review.

ETFs in Focus Baron First Principles ETF (RONB - Free Report) , Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) , VanEck Space ETF (WARP - Free Report) , VanEck Space ETF (ORBX - Free Report) , VegaShares SpaceX & Beyond Earth ETF (XSPC - Free Report) and WisdomTree Space Economy Fund (WSPC - Free Report) are the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in SpaceX to a significant extent. Any material movement in SpaceX (positive or negative) would influence these ETFs significantly.

Heavy AI investments have been part and parcel of every big AI company, as evident from Big Tech's mammoth AI investment pattern. Hence, we expect investors’ concerns around hefty AI investment are less likely to hold SPCX shares back for long.

SpaceX's first staggered lock-up expiration begins on August 6, 2026. If no material negative impact is seen post the expiration, SPCX shares may gain on their own fundamentals or at least trade in a rangebound manner.

With the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones ($DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) hitting all-time highs, Cameron Dawson joins Morning Movers to dissect the market conditions leading to the rise. She looks at the Mag 7 group with a 33% weighting in the SPX as a key group, particularly Alphabet (GOOGL) with notable investments in new AI companies.

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Elon Musk is the CEO of SpaceX. Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty Images Elon Musk issued a jaw-dropping revenue forecast, ridiculed the ease of building data centers compared to rockets, and envisioned factories on the Moon during SpaceX's first earnings call on Tuesday.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO — who is well-known for his grandiose predictions — also touted Starlink's potential for global domination, and predicted AI will become dramatically more advanced by the end of next year.

Here are Musk's five most interesting comments during SpaceX's inaugural earnings call after its blockbuster market debut in June.

1. Rocketing revenueMusk told Wall Street analysts that SpaceX's internal projections have it reaching $1 trillion in revenue in 2030, instead of 2031 as it had forecast before its IPO. He also said there's a "nonzero chance of that being in 2029."

To put that in perspective, Walmart and Amazon, which generate more revenue than any other public companies, reported net sales of $706 billion and $717 billion, respectively, in their last full financial years.

SpaceX generated $12.5 billion in first-half revenue, a 54% increase from the same period in 2025.

From fully autonomous vehicles to the first crewed mission to Mars, Musk has a long history of setting ambitious timelines for milestones, only to fail to meet them.

He acknowledged back in 2018 that he's "typically optimistic" about when things will occur, but added that what he predicts "pretty much always happens, but not exactly on the timeframe."

2. Data centers vs. rockets

SpaceX's background in rockets makes data centers a breeze, Musk said on the call.  Steve Nesius/Reuters Musk said that building data centers "ain't rocket science," whereas building rockets is extremely challenging because they "desperately want to blow themselves into tiny pieces."

He quipped that tasking rocket engineers to construct data centers was "kind of ridiculous, frankly," and represented a "trivial problem" for them.

Musk quipped that it was like the "New York Yankees going in and playing a Little League team."

Big Tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle, are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into building data centers to power the AI revolution.

The immense demand for microchips, power, and water has strained supply chains and pressured energy grids and reservoirs.

3. Linking up the worldMusk said it's "not out of the question" that Starlink will eventually deliver a "majority of the world's internet, at least in countries where we're allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries."

In another example of his famously optimistic timelines, Musk added that it won't be in the "infinity future" but rather in "less than 10 years."

Starlink, the satellite-communications arm of SpaceX, has emerged as a key provider of internet to planes, ships, and far-flung locales.

However, it has yet to meaningfully disrupt the core urban broadband businesses of established internet providers such as T-Mobile and Verizon.

4. Mission to the MoonMusk predicted that SpaceX will build "factories on the Moon," and "robots will be helpful with that."

He acknowledged that "sounds like super sci-fi right now," adding it might seem "totally nuts" but "you can probably scale to 1,000 times the economy of Earth in terms of intelligence launched into space, but probably maybe even 1 million times."

5. Getting smarterMusk hailed the launch of Claude 4.5 last September as "one of the milestones and a credit to Anthropic."

He said it was a "shock to the system" how good the AI model was.

Musk pointed to the immense progress in AI over the past two years, saying models from two summers ago feel like they "should be in a museum."

Based on recent rates of improvement, Musk said that by the end of next year, it's "not clear to me that there's anything that — digital at least — that AI won't be able to do."

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Theron Mohamed You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.

Theron Mohamed is a London-based correspondent on the Trending team at Business Insider. His coverage spans finance, investing, wealth, markets, and the economy.Theron joined BI in 2019 as a reporter at Markets Insider and rose to the rank of correspondent before moving to the Trending team in 2024. He previously covered tech, media, and telecom stocks for Investors Chronicle magazine and had a brief stint on the Financial Times' Data team. He interned at the Wall Street Journal in New York where he primarily wrote for Heard on the Street.Theron has freelanced for The Independent, The Telegraph, WIRED, and several smaller publications. He holds an undergraduate degree in geography from the London School of Economics, and a master's degree in journalism from Columbia University.Theron often covers Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham and other top-flight investors. He also writes about the world's wealthiest people and shares financial advice from all manner of rich and successful people.Email Theron at [email protected] and follow him on X @theron_mohamed.Expertise

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Tech Elon Musk SpaceX More Earnings Starlink AI

Investors bought into the SpaceX story ahead of earnings. Now they're selling it again.

SpaceX shares tanked nearly 10% Wednesday after it revealed a massive jump in spending on AI investments – adding to Wall Street jitters over a possible “AI bubble” in the market.

In its first earnings report as a public company Tuesday, Elon Musk’s rocket-launch firm said its capital expenditures jumped sixfold in the second quarter to $18.4 billion, with the majority going toward AI infrastructure.

The stock fell to roughly $113.27 Wednesday morning – below its $135 IPO price and its roughly $200 all-time high that was hit shortly after its record-breaking market debut in June, which raised $86 billion.

Elon Musk’s rocket-launch firm said its capital expenditures jumped sixfold in the second quarter. REUTERS SpaceX also disclosed a 92% surge in revenue and a smaller-than-expected loss of $541 million in the second quarter – but investors were more concerned about its massive spending plans.

Tech and chip stocks, particularly those with the most exposure to AI, have suffered choppy trading sessions for months as traders panic that massive spending might not see commensurate returns, potentially recreating the “dot-com bubble” of the early 2000s.

Since its IPO, SpaceX’s stock has plummeted more than 20%, wiping out roughly $500 billion in value.

During an earnings call Tuesday, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen tried to reassure investors, saying the company has been “efficient” with its spending.

“On the AI compute side, we’re able to deploy capital in such a way that we’re getting less than a one-year payback,” Johnsen said.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude models are the top contenders in the AI sphere, but SpaceX has attempted to carve out its own niche by renting out the computing capacity it is building with Nvidia chips.

Other tech giants, like Meta, have also floated the idea of renting out their compute as a way to generate revenue in the near-term.

The stock fell to roughly $125.33 Wednesday morning – below its $135 IPO price. Getty Images After its earnings report, SpaceX – which has touted grand ambitions like building data centers in space and colonizing Mars – also served up an optimistic forecast as Musk said the company would hit $1 trillion in annual revenue in 2030, sooner than a previous forecast of 2031.

But the company is expected to suffer more volatility this week as millions of SpaceX shares will become eligible for sale on Thursday.

Insider lock-ups on roughly 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors will expire Thursday, potentially resulting in a wave of share sales.

SpaceX opted for a staggered expiration of lock-ups, so more restrictions will be lifted in the coming months.

By December, an additional 40% of the company could be tradable, while the remaining 60% – including Musk’s stake – will face restrictions until the middle of 2027.