The market has spent much of 2026 rewarding companies tied to artificial intelligence, defense, and space technology with premium valuations. Investors have been willing to pay up for businesses promising decades of future growth, often overlooking near-term fundamentals.
That enthusiasm helped make SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) public debut one of the biggest investing stories of the year. Yet markets eventually force every stock to answer the same question: what is the business actually worth? Today’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 may provide another catalyst, but it doesn’t change the underlying math that long-term investors should be watching.
SpaceX’s Historic IPO Has Already Lost Its Momentum SpaceX delivered the largest initial public offering in history last month, pricing shares at $135 before opening for trading at $150. Excitement surrounding the company’s dominant launch business, Starlink satellite network, and long-term Mars ambitions pushed the stock to an intraday high of $225.
That excitement has cooled quickly. Heading into midday trading today, SpaceX changes hands around $151, leaving the stock barely above where it first began trading and erasing nearly all of its post-IPO gains.
Several factors have weighed on shares. Early investors have taken profits after the initial rally, valuation concerns have become harder to ignore, and the market has started asking whether expectations simply got too far ahead of the business. While SpaceX remains one of the world’s premier aerospace companies, the stock’s rapid climb priced in years of future success almost immediately.
Morningstar has also argued the shares remain overvalued even after the recent decline, noting that investors are still paying a steep premium relative to the firm’s estimate of intrinsic value. It says it could be worth less than half its IPO price. Meanwhile, the company continues to face the execution risks that come with scaling Starlink globally, developing Starship, and balancing commercial, government, and defense contracts.
SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today, becoming the fastest newly public company ever added to the benchmark index. That milestone matters because hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including passive vehicles that must purchase shares to match the index.
Index inclusion often creates a temporary tailwind because funds have little choice but to buy. Once that buying pressure fades, however, investors return to evaluating revenue growth, cash flow, profitability, and valuation.
History shows plenty of stocks receive an index boost only to resume trading based on business performance once passive buying is complete.
Fundamentals Still Matter More Than Index Membership Granted, SpaceX remains an extraordinary company with leading positions in reusable rockets, satellite internet, and government launch services. The investment case, however, is different from the business itself.
The question isn’t whether SpaceX is an innovative company. It clearly is. The question is whether today’s share price already reflects much of that future success.
Morningstar believes it does. With investors still assigning a premium valuation despite the recent pullback, the margin for disappointment remains thin if revenue growth, Starship development, or Starlink subscriber expansion falls short of expectations.
In the end, index buying cannot create long-term shareholder returns by itself. Only stronger earnings, expanding cash flow, and sustained execution can accomplish that.
Key Takeaway In short, today’s Nasdaq-100 addition could provide SPCX with a short-lived boost as passive funds purchase shares. Regardless, that demand is mechanical — not fundamental. The stock has already surrendered nearly all of its post-IPO gains despite one of the strongest public debuts ever, and respected research firms such as Morningstar still view the shares as overpriced.
Smart investors should admire the company, but continue watching from the sidelines until the valuation better reflects the business rather than the excitement surrounding it.
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 shares are under pressure. Why are QQQ shares declining?
A Small Slice of the IndexJPMorgan estimates SpaceX will enter the Nasdaq 100 at roughly a 1.3% index weight, placing it behind Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), which sits near 3.2% of the benchmark.
That means SpaceX will be a high-profile new member, but not a top-tier driver of QQQ’s performance at inception.
Analysts Push Back on "Forced-Buy" HypeDespite headlines forecasting billions in passive inflows, veteran tech analyst Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets describes the index inclusion as "less meaningful than people expect," per CNBC.
Meeks stresses that the process is essentially mechanical, saying "this is formulaic and everybody knows the formula," which in his view limits the scope for a surprise upside shock once QQQ and other Nasdaq trackers complete their rebalancing.
That sentiment echoes broader skepticism about the idea that index funds alone can sustain the kind of speculative rally that followed SpaceX’s record IPO.
Modeling from JPMorgan does show sizable one-off flows, with estimates in the $4 billion to $7 billion range tied to Nasdaq 100 trackers and related vehicles.
However, Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research, argues that "the buying needed on the index inclusion is likely to be much less than people initially suspected," according to CNBC.
SpaceX will remain a relatively thin slice of the Nasdaq 100 benchmark until its float expands over time.
Short-Term Pop, Limited Long-Term LiftCNBC also points to analysts at Arete Research who note that ETFs and mutual funds will still need to buy a "sizeable portion of the tradeable pool" because of SpaceX’s small float and large retail allocation, creating short-term upward pressure on the stock.
Yet Jefferies cautions that "given the low float, the index weight will not be as impactful as anticipated," and future lockup expirations could offset passive inflows as insiders sell.
Overall, these analysts view SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion as a notable milestone, but one that delivers minimal lasting lift to the stock compared with the exuberance that surrounded its historic IPO.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was down 5.33% at $151.87 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo: JRdes / Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Marley Kayden discusses SpaceX (SPCX) and its debut into the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) today after its record-setting IPO. She says multiple analysts are initiating coverage of SpaceX, with some predicting it will build over $800 billion in revenue by 2031.
SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ: SPCX) arrival on the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) benchmark is the fastest mega-cap onboarding the NASDAQ has ever executed. CNBC’s Morgan Brennan laid out the mechanics on air Tuesday morning. “SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq 100. That will happen at the start of trading officially later this morning,” Brennan told viewers, framing the move as a defining moment. Brennan then walked through why the inclusion matters so much for near-term price action. She also mentioned why the setup is more complicated than a clean tailwind.
What Morgan Brennan Said And Why It Matters “The company joining the index just 15 days after its stock market debut on June 12th, among the fastest inclusions ever thanks to Nasdaq’s revised rules for newly listed companies,” Brennan said. The revised NASDAQ framework lets qualifying mega-caps skip the traditional seasoning period, and SpaceX is the first name large enough to test it in practice.
The float mechanics are what created the passive bid. “According to a recent JPMorgan estimate, it enters the Nasdaq 100 at three times its raw float of $75 billion. That translates to an index weight of about 1.3%. That inclusion is expected to unleash a wave of passive buying for mutual funds and ETFs that track the index, an estimated $4.3 billion,” Brennan noted. Because index funds must own the stock in proportion to its weighting, that rebalancing happens mechanically by rule.
Brennan flagged the offsetting risk without softening it. “While that inclusion could put upward pressure on the stock, upcoming expiring lock-ups, and there is a tranche of them, could likely add downward pressure as insiders begin to unload shares.”
The Sell-Side Is Overwhelmingly Bullish “Half a dozen Wall Street firms are initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating. Morgan Stanley, the most bullish of the bunch, giving it a $300 price target, implying an 87% gain from Monday’s close of $160.42,” Brennan said. Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley anchored the highest target.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
The internal data set corroborates a bullish sell-side tilt. Consensus price target sits at $188.57, with 7 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell rating. Against Tuesday’s opening tape at $154.59, that consensus implies roughly 21.98% upside. The stock opened 3.63% lower on the inclusion day itself, a common pattern when passive buying is front-run.
The SpaceX Business Sell-Side Is Underwriting The bullish coverage rests on a business that has expanded well beyond launch. SpaceX operates Starlink, a low-latency broadband network powered by roughly 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink delivered connectivity to millions of consumer, enterprise, and government customers across 164 countries. The company has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023, and its acquisition of xAI in early 2026 added a frontier AI business to the platform. Sylvia Jablonski, CIO of Defiance ETFs, argued in mid-June that investors underestimate the company by viewing it as pure aerospace, describing it as a “multi-platform infrastructure company involved in launch, communications, defense, and AI connectivity.”
In short, two forces are colliding over the next several weeks. On one side is the $4.3 billion in mechanical passive buying tied to index rebalancing. On the other side is the lockup tranche Brennan flagged, which will unlock insider supply into a market that is still pricing in scarcity. Retail conviction is fragmenting alongside that setup: Reddit sentiment on July 7 registered a very bearish reading of 18, even as news sentiment sits at 58.22.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SpaceX's SPCX valuation has been in the spotlight ever since its historic June 12th initial public offering (IPO) that tagged a market cap of nearly $2 trillion on the space infrastructure and AI titan.
And while many believe the company is trading at a stretched multiple, Brian Gesuale, a Raymond James analyst, issued a contrarian call on SPCX today, saying it’s actually “undervalued” at current levels.
In his research note, Gesuale told clients that SpaceX stock is strongly positioned to hit $800 over the long-term – an exceptionally bullish price objective that signals potential upside of a whopping 430% from here.
Gesuale’s positive stance on SPCX shares is based primarily on commercial maturity of the firm’s Starship.
The next-gen vehicle is built to carry more than 100 metric tonnes into orbit – effectively rewriting the laws of aerospace economics.
According to the Raymond James analyst, Starship is a revolutionary asset that transforms orbital launch from a custom, low-frequency capability into a highly automated transportation network.
Gesuale noted that this shift mimics a commercial aviation operating cadence with continuously falling unit costs, allowing the space giant to tap into a massive, newly unlocked $30 trillion total addressable market.
Beyond transforming global logistics and satellite deployment, Gesuale cited artificial intelligence (AI) as another major driver for SpaceX shares’ premium valuation.
As enterprise software shifts toward compute-heavy, agentic AI systems, the primary bottleneck for tech companies has shifted from software development to physical infrastructure and power availability.
In a note to clients, the Raymond James analyst said SPCX is uniquely positioned to commercialize an ultra-low-cost platform designed to convert raw electricity into highly actionable, AI-powered analytical insights.
By building out data capabilities connected to its satellite infrastructure, the firm is quietly erecting the foundational infrastructure required to generate useful intelligence at a lower cost than standard terrestrial operators.
Note that Raymond James is far from alone in its long-term optimism, though its target sits at the top of the Wall Street estimates.
The firm acted as an underwriter for SpaceX's massive $75 billion capital raise alongside lead bookrunners Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This insider familiarity supports a thesis that compares SpaceX to historic economic catalysts like the railroads or the internet grid.
Current consensus data from LSEG reveals that more than two-thirds of covering analysts hold a “Buy” or equivalent rating on billionaire Elon Musk’s space infrastructure and AI giant.
By framing the company as a pure-play industrial infrastructure backbone rather than a speculative aerospace venture, analysts increasingly view the current post-IPO consolidation as a unique entry point into SPCX stock.
Investors who sat out the Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%) initial public offering had a variety of reasons for doing so.
They could have had concerns about valuation, believed that the business is overly complicated, or worried about the cost of building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in space. Some investors may also be interested in investing in SpaceX but want to see it trade for a little longer, waiting for it to find a stable price range before making a move.
Those same investors, however, may be surprised to find that SpaceX could still end up in their 401(k)s. Whether you're concerned or just curious, there's a simple way to find out if SpaceX is in your retirement account.
Image source: Getty Images.
First steps To learn if SpaceX is in your 401(k), you can log in to the website of your retirement plan provider to access your account. When looking at your portfolio, you can see the exchange-traded funds (ETFs), target-date funds, or mutual funds that the 401(k) is invested in.
Depending on your retirement plan provider, you may be able to view the holdings of those investments directly in your account. If not, you can find information online.
After reviewing the holdings, you'll know whether SpaceX is in your 401(k).
Where SpaceX is included On June 26, SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 index, which tracks the performance of the 1,000 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. If an ETF that tracks the Russell 1000 index, like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF, is in a 401(k), that means the 401(k) has exposure to SpaceX.
Also, on July 7, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq-100, which tracks the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Included in that index are Apple, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Invesco QQQ Trust is a popular ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100, so if Invesco QQQ is in a 401(k), that 401(k) also has exposure to SpaceX.
Today's Change
(
-4.92
%) $
-7.89
Current Price
$
152.53
Is there a massive cause for concern? For investors worried about SpaceX in their 401(k), the good news is that it was not fast-tracked for inclusion in the S&P 500. If a 401(k) account has an investment that tracks the S&P 500, there is no exposure to SpaceX.
In addition, even if there is an investment in your 401(k) that now or soon will hold SpaceX, it will likely play a relatively small role within that ETF. Circling back to that iShares Russell 1000 ETF, SpaceX's weight within the ETF is 0.1%, while Nvidia's weight is 6.5%. That's just one example, but it shows the limited impact SpaceX has on that ETF.
If SpaceX faces a prolonged slump, it will have only a minimal impact on an ETF, especially one with hundreds of thousands of holdings.
SummarySpaceX’s fast-tracked inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 is expected to trigger around US$4.3 billion of compulsory passive buying, but historical precedents suggest such events can evolve into “sell-the-news” opportunities as early institutional buyers distribute shares to index funds.Past Nasdaq-100 additions such as Palantir Technologies and Strategy experienced medium-term pullbacks of 23% and 15%, respectively, after their index inclusions, highlighting the risk of profit-taking once passive fund demand is absorbed.Despite its dominant AI and Starlink narrative, SpaceX’s valuation remains exceptionally demanding, trading above 115x trailing sales while still posting a net loss, leaving little room for operational disappointments or tighter financial conditions.Technically, bearish momentum is building, with the SpaceX perpetual contract forming a bearish flag pattern and weakening RSI momentum. A break below 152.60 would reinforce the bearish outlook, while only a sustained move above 176.95 would negate the downside scenario. Getty Images
By Kelvin Wong
Massive $4.3 billion passive wave arrives via fast-tracked inclusion Following its record-breaking Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, which raised a historic $75 billion at an issuance price of $135 per share, aerospace and AI giant SpaceX (
Just about everyone had their eyes on the Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX 4.92%) initial public offering (IPO), which ended up being the largest-ever IPO in market history. For weeks, nobody could talk about anything else, and now that the honeymoon stage is over, and the confetti swept away, gravity is bringing the stock back down to Earth.
After hitting a lifetime high of about $225 in mid-June, SpaceX stock now trades in the mid-$150s to the low $160s -- a drop of about 30%. Despite the dip, however, I would not call SpaceX a screaming buy -- or even a murmuring one.
Today's Change
(
-4.92
%) $
-7.89
Current Price
$
152.53
Part of that is because of SpaceX's valuation. With a market capitalization of over $2 trillion, SpaceX still trades at more than 100 times trailing revenue. That's extraordinarily high. For context, Nvidia trades at roughly 19 times sales, Microsoft around 9, and Amazon around 3.5.
Investors are already paying for several years of aggressive growth, and it's unclear yet what the space stock is capable of delivering. SpaceX itself says its market opportunity is worth about $28.5 trillion. But that's an estimate, not a solid figure, and since it comes from SpaceX's own calculations, I'd take it with a grain of salt.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the time of writing (July 3), the average price target for SpaceX is about $188, representing 17.5% upside. This average will likely change on July 7, the day the "quiet period" for underwriters involved in SpaceX's IPO, which included a slew of big-name banks, officially ends. Each of these banks' analysts will weigh in on what they think SpaceX is worth, which could cause the price to jump higher or sag.
Regardless of what other analysts predict, my opinion is the same: SpaceX has an exciting business, but the price-to-sales ratio is too high for my tastes. Most long-term investors, I think, should wait for more clarity before stepping in.
Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Founder's ClubSwingTraderLeaderboardMarketSurgeeIBDIBD DigitalIBD LiveCustomer Center
My Stock Lists
Email Preferences
Help & Support
Sign Out
Search stocks or keywords
Sections
My IBD
MARKET TREND
STOCK LISTS
STOCK RESEARCH
NEWSECONOMY
VIDEOS & PODCASTS
HOW TO INVESTEDUCATIONAL RESOURCESStoreMy Products
Founder's ClubSwingTraderLeaderboardMarketSurgeeIBDIBD DigitalIBD Live
Recently Searched
Arista Networks, Morgan Stanley Among 15 New Stocks On IBD Watchlists
Stock Market Strengthens As Nasdaq Paces Gains; Did You Spot These 3 New Breakouts?
Dow Jones Futures: Tech Futures Slide On Samsung Earnings; SpaceX Falls Ahead Of Nasdaq-100 Inclusion SpaceX stock's quiet period ended with a bang early Tuesday as Elon Musk's rocket, AI and technology company readied for its first day on the Nasdaq 100 index. The inclusion means SpaceX will join key ETFs and index-tracking funds, working its way into millions of retirement portfolios. Wall Street also rolled out a strong vote of confidence as a score…
Key Takeaways SPCX rebranded xAI as SpaceXAI as it expands beyond launch services and Starlink.SpaceX plans AI compute satellites by 2028 and is growing its Colossus data center platform.SpaceX's AI push adds margin uncertainty as Starship remains key to several growth plans. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is increasingly positioning artificial intelligence (AI) as its next major growth driver and has officially rebranded xAI as SpaceXAI.
The Elon Musk-led company had acquired xAI and its social media platform X in February this year. SpaceX is now aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated AI infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink.
SpaceXAI: The X-Factor?As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, will now operate under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX has also entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market. The acquisition gives SpaceX exposure to a high-growth software business while strengthening its AI capabilities. The buyout adds a widely adopted developer platform that could complement the company's growing technology portfolio. The transaction is likely to be completed by the third quarter of 2026, subject to the fulfillment of mandatory closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
Competitive EdgeSpaceX has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.
The satellite Internet platform, Starlink, has expanded rapidly, serving millions of customers across residential, enterprise, aviation and maritime markets with an active network of more than 10,400 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). Unlike the launch business, which generates project-based revenue, Starlink provides recurring subscription income and potentially higher long-term margins. The business also benefits from a powerful competitive advantage. SpaceX can launch its own satellites at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, allowing Starlink to expand its network faster and more efficiently. As global demand for reliable broadband connectivity increases, Starlink's growth prospects remain solid.
Price PerformanceSpaceX has soared 18.8% since its IPO compared with the industry’s growth of 146.4% over the past month. It has outperformed peers like Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) over this period. While Verizon has declined 7.4%, AT&T is down 8.6%.
SPCX Stock Price Performance Since IPO
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likely PitfallsHowever, SpaceX is scaling several capital-intensive platforms simultaneously. The company is investing heavily in COLOSSUS, COLOSSUS II, Grok, enterprise offerings, compute services and future orbital AI compute. Management expects a multi-year investment cycle until sustained positive segment adjusted EBITDA is realized. The strategy may create a cost advantage if compute, energy and launch assets integrate as planned. Until then, AI adds uncertainty to margins, capital needs and consolidated earnings quality.
Moreover, Starship is central to the long-term strategy, but it remains a development platform. SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, and the next milestone is payload delivery to orbit in the second half of 2026. The investment case assumes Starship can lower cost to orbit, increase payload capacity and support V3 satellites, Starlink Mobile V2, AI compute satellites and lunar missions. Any delay in reusability, cadence, payload reliability or regulatory clearance would affect several growth vectors at once. This risk is not limited to the Space segment because Connectivity and AI also rely on future launch throughput to reach their planned scale.
Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s 2026 earnings has narrowed from a loss of $1.12 per share to a loss of 96 cents over the past seven days, while the same for 2027 has narrowed from a loss of 11 cents to a loss of 9 cents. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NoteSpaceX is steadily transforming from a pure-play aerospace company into a diversified AI infrastructure leader. Its aggressive investments in AI computing, the integration of SpaceXAI, expanding enterprise partnerships and plans for space-based data centers underscore management's conviction that AI will be a key driver of future growth.
Although the AI segment is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated investment levels, the company's long-term growth prospects appear increasingly tied to the rapid expansion of the global AI infrastructure market. While high operating costs and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears well-positioned to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. Those who already own the stock can hold onto it, while new investors may wait for a better entry point.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
When a company goes public, it's important to know that the shares sold in the offering are a fraction of the existing shares. The rest, the stakes held by employees, early backers, and executives, sit behind a lockup -- an inability to sell for a set stretch after the debut.
For Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%), the first stretch lifts in late July, and the design of the release tells you more than the date does. Most IPOs use one 180-day lockup, so a wall of shares might hit the market on a single morning.
SpaceX built something different. The first slice, nearly 20% of locked shares, is freed up after the company reports second-quarter results in late July. Smaller tranches of around 7% each follow through August, September, and October, with a larger release tied to third-quarter earnings, and the 180-day batch clears in December. Instead of one flood, supply arrives in steps.
Today's Change
(
-4.92
%) $
-7.89
Current Price
$
152.53
The SpaceX price triggers worth watching One tranche, about 10% of the locked pool, is unlocked if the stock trades at 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50. That condition ties insider selling to strength rather than weakness. If shares are unlocked this way, more supply reaches the market, but it reaches the market because the stock has climbed. Think of this mechanism as a built-in brake: The plan releases the most shares when demand can absorb them.
What the lockup expiration means for the stock Two forces are at play here. More sellable shares can cap gains, and the late-July window is the first real test of how many insiders want out at a $2 trillion valuation. On the other side, the staggered format spreads the pressure across months rather than one session, and the largest holder sits out of every July move. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027, with no early release provision. The overhang that could matter most is a year down the road.
Image source: Getty Images.
The takeaway for investors The July expiration is a signal, not a cliff, and the difference shapes how you read the rest of the year. A staggered lockup lets the market price in each release as it comes rather than absorb one shock, so the second-quarter report in late July becomes the first honest look at insider appetite. If early backers and employees hold their shares through that window, it says something about how the people closest to SpaceX view a $2 trillion price tag; if they sell into the opening, their exit says the opposite.
After a debut that sent the stock to a peak near $226 per share within days, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) has given back a large chunk of that run and trades near $160 as of this writing. The pullback has rattled some new shareholders, and the honest read is that it might have more room to fall. That does not make the stock a mistake. It makes the method you use to buy it the thing that matters.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why the SpaceX sell-off might get worse The first pressure is supply. SpaceX staggered its insider lockup, and the first block of shares, nearly 20% of the locked pool, is released after the second-quarter report in late July. Smaller tranches will follow through the fall, with the full 180-day batch clearing in December. More sellable shares meeting the same pool of buyers can press the price lower, and that supply arrives on a schedule the market can see coming.
The second pressure is the price itself. A market value near $2 trillion bakes in moon bases, a high Starship flight rate, and orbital data centers, outcomes that could take a decade to prove. A launch setback or a slipped timeline could reset sentiment in a hurry, and the $226 per-share peak looked more like debut momentum than a considered price. Momentum fades, and a stock that tripled expectations in a week can keep giving back ground.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
Why dollar-cost averaging is the move Instead of one lump purchase at a price no one can predict, dollar-cost averaging commits a fixed dollar amount on a set schedule, month after month, at whatever the price allows. When shares drop, that fixed sum buys more of them; when shares climb, it buys fewer. Across a volatile stock with a known supply calendar, the math lowers your average cost and removes the pressure to call a bottom that no one can call. For a company with a decade-long story and lockups draining out through December, spreading purchases across those same months lines up with the supply.
The approach has limits worth stating. If the stock climbs in a straight line, a single lump-sum buy would have beaten it. And dollar-cost averaging does not fix a weak business; it addresses timing, nothing more. The case rests on the belief that SpaceX is worth owning for years, with the investing schedule managing volatility along the way.
The takeaway for patient investors The sell-off is uncomfortable, and discomfort is where a patient plan earns its keep. Set an amount you can add on a schedule, tune out the daily move, and let the lockup-driven supply come to you rather than chasing the stock. A brokerage account that supports recurring buys makes the habit automatic. I would treat SpaceX as a position built across quarters, not a trade timed to a bottom.
Item 1 of 2 People walk in front of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. building at 270 Park Avenue, in New York City, U.S., October 21, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
[1/2]People walk in front of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. building at 270 Park Avenue, in New York City, U.S., October 21, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Driven in part by the blockbuster SpaceX mega IPO, a surge in sales and trading will power U.S. Wall Street bank earnings in the second quarter, supported by solid fee growth from advising on M&A deals, according to analysts and LSEG data.
Five of the six largest U.S. lenders, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab, Bank of America (BAC.N), opens new tab, Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), opens new tab and Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab, will report results on July 14. Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab will unveil second-quarter results on July 15.
Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.
Trading continues to be a source of strength in 2026 as volatility has remained higher than usual due to persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding disruption from artificial intelligence.
Market revenue is expected to be up at least 15% year-on-year for the largest global banks, said Angad Chhatwal, head of fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) at Coalition Greenwich, a global analytics and data provider for the financial services industry.
"Equities is set to be the primary engine of growth across global markets. The SpaceX IPO will have generated significant revenues in banking but also for certain cash-equities desks during the quarter," said Jamie Vickers, head of equities at Coalition Greenwich.
Wall Street giants, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which had big roles in the nearly $86 billion SpaceX IPO, will likely outperform in equities, Morningstar analyst Sean Dunlop said. Banks on the SpaceX IPO raked in around $500 million in fees, Reuters and others reported.
But Dunlop cautioned that trading revenue for the second quarter, while still strong, may slow compared to the first quarter when unusually high levels of volatility from the initial Iran war shock and related inflation and interest rate repricing drove high levels of activity.
Investment banking has also been a strong area of revenue growth for banks, with mega equity offerings and multibillion-dollar transactions signalling the most bullish deal-making environment in years.
Global investment banking revenue hit $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a 24% jump from a year earlier, according to Dealogic data. JPMorgan remained the global leader in investment banking revenue, while Goldman Sachs was the global leader in M&A advisory.
Chip designer Cerebras' (CBRS.O), opens new tab $6.4 billion IPO and Google-parent Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab $85 billion share sale were also among the top deals in the second quarter.
STRONG LOAN GROWTHBanks will also benefit from loan growth and expansion in net interest margin, a measure of how much a bank earns from interest and pays out on deposits.
U.S. Federal Reserve data suggests loan growth accelerated in the second quarter, underpinned by robust momentum in commercial and industrial loans, analysts said.
"While some uncertainty persists from geopolitical factors and market volatility, many banks are reporting that clients are increasingly viewing the current environment as the 'new normal' and continuing to move forward with investment plans," Jefferies analyst David Chiaverini said.
Investors will focus on the outlook for loan growth in the second half of 2026 and executives' commentary on the U.S. economy as concerns remain around inflation hurting consumers' pocketbooks.
Investors should also keep a keen eye on credit metrics and broader loan demand as key pillars to support a continued rally across bank stocks into the second half of 2026, Morningstar analyst Austin Taggart said.
Here is what bank executives have said about upcoming earnings and what analysts expect from the six biggest U.S. lenders:
JPMORGAN CHASEJPMorgan Chase's investment banking fees could rise 10% or more in the second quarter, CEO Jamie Dimon told an investor conference in May.
BANK OF AMERICABank of America may exceed the initial forecast of 15% growth in second-quarter markets revenue, fueled by the equities business, Co-President Jim DeMare said in June.
CITIGROUPCitigroup expects trading revenue to rise between high-single and low-double digits in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Gonzalo Luchetti said at an investor conference in June.
Investment banking revenue is expected to rise by a mid-teen percentage in the second quarter, he added at the time.
WELLS FARGOWells Fargo's net interest income is expected to "step up" in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said at an investor conference in June.
GOLDMAN SACHSGoldman Sachs has managed to advise on more than $1 trillion worth of announced mergers and acquisitions so far in 2026, marking a record pace for any investment bank within a half-year period, the Wall Street giant said in a LinkedIn post, citing Dealogic data on June 16.
MORGAN STANLEYMorgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said last month it was a pretty good time to be in the capital markets business. There is a lot of core investment banking activity, he said at the time.
Bank
Q2 2026 EPS estimate
Q2 2025 EPS
JPMorgan
$5.70
$5.24
Bank of America
$1.11
$0.89
Citigroup
$2.68
$1.96
Wells Fargo
$1.71
$1.60
Goldman Sachs
$13.91
$10.91
Morgan Stanley
$2.84
$2.13
Source: LSEG estimates on June 30
Reporting by Saeed Azhar and Arasu Kannagi Basil; editing by Michelle Price
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Saeed Azhar is a Reuters financial journalist and part of the U.S. banking team, which covers Wall Street's biggest banks. He focuses on Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, and also writes about regional banks. Before moving to New York in July 2022, he led the finance team in the Middle East from Dubai, and also worked in Singapore, covering Southeast Asia finance.
Basil writes stories across the U.S. finance file including banks, asset managers, payment firms, insurers, and exchange operators. He also covers initial public offerings on U.S. exchanges and venture capital funding.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%), better known as SpaceX, went public last month to much fanfare. It instantly made history as the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, reaching a $2 trillion valuation on its first day of trading.
All the hype it's received, however, has made it more challenging for investors to decide whether to buy in. Some analysts believe the stock could eventually surpass Nvidia in valuation. Others are more skeptical, given that SpaceX is already trading at extremely optimistic levels.
With SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 this week, it will be even easier for investors to gain exposure to the stock through ETFs that track the index. If you're thinking of owning SpaceX, however, there's one piece of advice I'd offer to all investors: make sure you're buying it for the right reasons.
Image source: Getty Images.
Your timeline can make or break your portfolio There are two main reasons an investor may want to buy SpaceX stock. Either they view it as a solid long-term investment with significant growth potential, or they're hoping that the hype surrounding the stock can make them rich overnight. Investors with the latter mindset are almost certain to be disappointed.
Short-term investing is incredibly risky, especially with a stock like SpaceX that's prone to volatility. Despite popping on its first trading day, for example, the stock has fallen by nearly 20% since June 16, as of this writing. If your timing is even slightly off, short-term investing can be costly.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
Long-term investing is a far safer strategy, but there are still some caveats. For a stock to succeed over several years, it needs to have solid fundamentals, such as:
Healthy finances and a path to profitability. A strong competitive advantage. An experienced and capable leadership team. A proven and sustainable business model. Hype can only go so far, so before investing in any stock, it's important to understand a company's core business to decide whether it's positioned for long-term growth.
As for SpaceX, experts are divided on just how strong the company's fundamentals are, so there's an element of risk even for long-term investors. This doesn't necessarily mean it won't thrive over time. But foundations beat hype every time, so it's crucial for investors to consider why they're buying before they invest.
It's turning out to be another banner year for U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite launching to new highs. Though the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) often gets most of the glory, initial public offering (IPO) euphoria also deserves some credit.
On June 12, Elon Musk's AI and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 0.99%), cemented itself in Wall Street's record books. SpaceX's debut raised $85.7 billion, including the overallotment for underwriters, which nearly tripled Saudi Aramco's previous IPO capital raise record of $29.4 billion.
For a few days following SpaceX's IPO, it fully lived up to the investor hype and neared a $3 trillion valuation. But as of the closing bell on July 2, Musk's company had "retraced" to a $2.13 trillion market cap. Nevertheless, its $162 share price is a cool 20% above its $135 IPO list price.
Image source: Getty Images.
The million-dollar question is: Can SpaceX sustain this momentum for the remainder of 2026?
While nothing can ever be guaranteed on Wall Street, history has a way of accurately forecasting the future.
Will SpaceX stock plummet below $100? History weighs in. Although several newly signed compute deals for AI start-up xAI and fast entry into the Nasdaq-100 (effective today, July 7) are positives for SpaceX, historical precedent is definitely not its friend.
To begin with, large-scale IPOs have a terrible early stage track record on Wall Street. Before SpaceX went public, researchers at Truist Financial compared the performance of 30 of the largest tech-driven IPOs of the last 14 years (starting with Facebook, now Meta Platforms). Though 43% of the 30 were higher at the six-month mark, the average year-one maximum drawdown was a whopping 55%.
Moral of the story-do NOT chase hot IPOs
Year-1 average drawdown = 55%
Year-1 median drawdown = 54%
Table: Truist pic.twitter.com/xt864JD4Xh
-- Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) June 3, 2026 The magnitude of this average drawdown indicates that investors' emotions play a big role in early trading for newly public companies. If SpaceX were to conform to the average year-one max drawdown, it would plunge to around $101.50.
What complicates matters for SpaceX is its staggered and accelerated lockup schedule.
Typically, companies going public sell between 10% and 25% of their outstanding shares. Though SpaceX sold approximately 555.6 million shares, this represents less than 5% of its outstanding shares. Musk's company has a relatively low float that's going to expand rapidly once insiders are free to sell their shares.
Starting two trading days after the company's first quarterly report as a public company (estimated for Aug. 6), early release-eligible shares can be sold. There are several performance- and time-based markers that enable insiders to dump their shares on retail investors. This can easily weigh on SpaceX's stock.
-- Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 19, 2026 Lastly, no company at the forefront of a game-changing technological innovation (let alone two, AI and the space economy) has ever sustained a trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any significant length of time. As of July 2, SpaceX was commanding a P/S ratio of 114, based on its 2025 full-year sales.
The cards are absolutely stacked against SpaceX's early success. More importantly, all of these factors decisively point to SpaceX's stock plunging below $100 per share before 2026 comes to a close.
Investors seeking exposure to SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) have new opportunities ahead of the company’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7.
The move comes just weeks after SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering and is expected to drive significant passive fund inflows as index-tracking products adjust their holdings.
For investors seeking more direct exposure than broad market funds can offer, several space-focused ETFs provide meaningful allocations to SpaceX while also benefiting from the broader growth of the commercial space industry.
In this line, Finbold has identified the following two ETFs to buy today.
Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASDAQ: NASA) The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASDAQ: NASA) is one of the newest dedicated space investment funds on the market, offering concentrated exposure to companies shaping the future of the space economy.
The actively managed ETF focuses on businesses involved in launch services, satellite technology, space infrastructure, and related innovations.
SpaceX is a core holding in the portfolio, alongside other companies positioned to benefit from rising demand for commercial space services.
The investment thesis behind NASA centers on the continued expansion of the space economy, supported by lower launch costs, growing satellite deployment, broadband connectivity initiatives, Earth observation services, and emerging deep-space opportunities.
For investors seeking a high-conviction space ETF with significant exposure to industry leaders, NASA offers a targeted approach that extends beyond traditional aerospace investments.
Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) remains one of the most established space-focused ETFs available to investors.
Following SpaceX’s IPO, the company became one of the ETF’s largest holdings, giving investors direct exposure to one of the industry’s most influential players.
UFO tracks an index of companies generating substantial revenue from space-related activities, including launch operations, satellite communications, and supporting technologies.
Unlike more concentrated funds, UFO provides broader diversification across the space ecosystem while maintaining meaningful SpaceX exposure.
This structure allows investors to participate in growth opportunities tied to Starlink, commercial launch demand, government contracts, and expanding satellite infrastructure without relying on a single company.
As commercial space activity continues to expand globally, UFO offers exposure to multiple segments of the industry while maintaining a strong link to SpaceX’s long-term growth prospects.
Overall, interest in SpaceX ETFs has grown following the company’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
Backed by its leadership in reusable rockets, the expanding Starlink network, and a growing role in commercial and government space missions, SpaceX has become a major force in the space economy.
SpaceX stock is showing downward bias. What’s next for SPCX stock? The Nasdaq-100 InclusionAnalyst Coverage FloodWith the IPO quiet period expiring today, Wall Street is weighing in on SpaceX for the first time — and the early read is broadly bullish. The stock now carries a Buy consensus with an average price target of $234.05. A sample of today’s initiations include:
Bernstein initiated with Outperform and a $239 price target Clear Street initiated with Buy and a $217 price target RBC Capital initiated with Outperform and a $225 price target SpaceX Shares Tumble LowerSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 1.10% lower at $158.66, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Imugene Ltd (ASX:IMU, OTC:IUGNF, FRA:ILA) is raising about A$11.12 million before costs through a two-tranche placement, strengthening its balance sheet as it advances its lead cell therapy asset azer-cel through key clinical and regulatory milestones.
The placement follows positive early clinical data from Cohort 3 of Imugene’s ongoing Phase 1b azer-cel study, where the first two evaluable patients in the concurrent BTKi combination cohort achieved complete responses.
The placement will involve the issue of about 117.1 million new fully paid ordinary shares at A$0.095 per share to sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. It was strongly supported by new and existing institutional investors. Placement participants include an international, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, which subscribed for about 14% of the placement, subject to shareholder approval.
Funding into CY2027 The placement is expected to provide funding into CY2027, with proceeds to be used primarily for the continued development of azer-cel.
Funds will support the expansion of Cohort 2, covering CAR-T naïve indications, and Cohort 3, covering the BTKi combination arm, as well as regulatory engagement, manufacturing scale-up and general working capital.
Tranche 1 is expected to raise A$7 million through the issue of about 73.7 million new shares, while Tranche 2 will raise A$4.1 million through the issue of 43.4 million new shares, subject to shareholder approval where required.
Complete responses sharpen clinical focus Recent clinical progress has centred on Imugene’s concurrent BTKi combination cohort in its Phase 1b azer-cel study.
On June 30, 2026, Imugene announced that a BTKi-refractory follicular lymphoma patient had achieved a complete response at Day 28. A day later, the company announced a second complete response in the first mantle cell lymphoma patient treated in the study, taking the response rate to 2/2 evaluable patients in that cohort.
Managing director and CEO Leslie Chong said: “The first two evaluable patients in our concurrent BTKi combination cohort have both achieved complete responses, providing a strong early clinical signal for azer-cel in a therapeutic class worth more than US$12 billion annually. This Placement funds a series of important clinical data readouts over the next 6–12 months, including presentations at ASH and ASCO, while supporting our ongoing business development activities and continued discussions with potential pharmaceutical partners. We thank our shareholders, new investors and Directors for their ongoing support as we advance azer-cel towards a registrational pathway”.
About azer-cel Azer-cel, or azercabtagene zapreleucel, is Imugene’s lead off-the-shelf, allogeneic CAR-T therapy targeting CD19 for the treatment of blood cancers.
Imugene said BTK inhibitors are an established standard of care across multiple B-cell malignancies, with published studies supporting the rationale for combining BTK inhibition with CAR-T therapy. The company said its early results provide the first clinical evidence supporting this approach with azer-cel, an allogeneic CAR-T therapy.
Further patient readouts are expected across the BTKi and CAR-T naïve cohorts over the next 6–12 months, with potential data presentations anticipated at ASH 2026 and ASCO 2027.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%), otherwise known as SpaceX, is joining the Nasdaq-100 index today. This means that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ +1.43%), will soon own the stock indirectly.
J.P. Morgan, part of JPMorgan Chase, expects this index inclusion to trigger about $4.3 billion in passive buying from index-tracking funds. Although this will serve as a clear near-term demand catalyst for SpaceX, Invesco QQQ Trust investors are also getting exposure to a founder-controlled company with a limited number of publicly traded shares (float) and an unprofitable business.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 entry matters for QQQ investors Invesco QQQ Trust tracks the Nasdaq-100, which includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq.
Invesco QQQ Trust
Today's Change
(
1.43
%) $
10.22
Current Price
$
722.82
SpaceX's quick entry became possible because the Nasdaq-100 changed its inclusion rules in 2026. Starting May 1, large newly public companies like SpaceX can be added after just 15 trading days if they rank among the top 40 eligible Nasdaq-listed companies. However, if only a limited number of shares are publicly traded, Nasdaq can limit how much weight the stock gets in the index. The change reflects today's market, where some very large companies stay private for longer and list with only a limited number of shares available for public investors.
SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion will give Invesco QQQ Trust investors exposure to the space, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company before S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.72%) index fund investors get it automatically. Reuters reported that SpaceX would need at least 12 months of public trading history, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitability, and a public float of at least 10% before it can be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500. However, according to Reuters' estimates, SpaceX's public float is only 3% to 4%. The company also posted a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025.
Since only a small portion of SpaceX shares is available for public trading, buying by funds that track the Nasdaq-100 can have a bigger effect on the stock price. But once that buying is complete, the same limited supply of tradable shares can also make the stock move more sharply if investors start selling. So, Invesco QQQ Trust investors should ask whether SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion has already lifted the stock enough to limit its near-term gains.
Starlink is the key business to watch The best reason for Invesco QQQ Trust investors to take SpaceX seriously is its Starlink satellite internet business. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, with the Starlink-powered connectivity business accounting for about 60% of total sales. The business had about 10.3 million users across roughly 9,600 satellites at the end of the first quarter.
Today's Change
(
-0.97
%) $
-1.58
Current Price
$
160.42
Starlink is SpaceX's clearest profit engine and is helping offset losses from the company's other growth initiatives. In the first quarter, the connectivity segment generated $1.2 billion of operating profit. But SpaceX still reported a total operating loss of $1.9 billion on $4.7 billion of revenue.
SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 rocket has helped make the company a leading launch provider for NASA, the Pentagon, and commercial customers. According to Reuters, SpaceX has gone from one launch in 2006 to more than two launches per week, giving it a much faster launch pace than its rivals.
The Federal Communications Commission has approved SpaceX to deploy another 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the approved Gen2 satellite count to 15,000. More satellites should give Starlink more network capacity, which can support faster broadband and mobile connectivity service, as well as growth in aviation, maritime, enterprise, and government markets.
Additionally, if the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, works at commercial scale, it could lower launch costs and help SpaceX deploy larger, higher-capacity satellites faster.
Investors are getting growth, but also uncertainty The biggest risk is that Invesco QQQ Trust is being required to buy an expensive story. SpaceX currently trades at nearly 81 times trailing-12-month sales, even though it is a money-losing business.
SpaceX's AI business could become a major long-term growth engine, especially after Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for compute capacity. But investors should not treat that as guaranteed revenue. Reuters reported that either company can terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice, and that fees are lower during the ramp-up period. The company is also spending heavily on an AI infrastructure business that is not yet profitable. In the first quarter, the AI segment reported an operating loss of nearly $2.5 billion on $818 million of revenue.
Additionally, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk accounts for 82.3% of SpaceX's voting power. Hence, although public investors may own the stock, they will have little control over major company decisions. So, Invesco QQQ Trust investors are getting automatic exposure to a company where major decisions will remain heavily shaped by Musk, not by public shareholders.
NASA's inspector general said SpaceX's Artemis III Starship work has faced delays, while refueling the vehicle in space remains one of the biggest technical challenges. With Starship being crucial to SpaceX's plan to launch more satellites at lower cost and support NASA's moon missions, it also adds to the company's execution risk.
Invesco QQQ Trust investors should not panic over one index addition. SpaceX will likely be a modest initial QQQ position because of its limited float. But investors should recognize that QQQ is becoming a slightly more aggressive fund, with higher valuation risk, more execution risk, and more Musk-specific governance risk.
While SpaceX's addition is not a reason to abandon the ETF, it should also remind investors that the Invesco QQQ Trust is not a broad-market fund. Investors should watch Starlink profits, AI losses, Starship progress, and future earnings reports before assuming this index addition is automatically good news.
HomeIndustriesThe Ratings GameThe Ratings GameMorgan Stanley sets $300 price target on Space as Goldman Sachs arrives at $205July 7, 2026, 4:20 a.m. ET
What's SpaceX worth? Analysts at underwriters now have their say. Photo: MarketWatch/Getty ImagesThe two lead underwriters on SpaceX’s initial public offering, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have a valuation gap of more than $1 trillion as they both initiated coverage at the equivalent of buy.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205 on the rocket-launching company, while Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Jonas set a $300 target, as the 25-day quiet period expired for SpaceX’s underwriters.
About the Author
Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX is all set to enter the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, less than a month after its June 12 market debut, giving one of 2026’s biggest IPO trades a powerful new technical catalyst.
Nasdaq confirmed the fast-track inclusion late last month, opening the door for index-tracking funds to buy the stock.
J.P. Morgan estimates the move could draw about $4.3 billion in passive inflows.
The question for investors is whether that mechanical demand can extend the rally, or whether the good news is already priced in.
The Nasdaq-100 entry matters because it creates forced demand.
Funds that track the benchmark, including products such as Invesco QQQ and QQQM, do not buy SpaceX because they have suddenly become more bullish on rockets, Starlink or AI infrastructure.
They buy because their rules require them to mirror the index.
That makes Tuesday’s inclusion a clean near-term trading event. Passive flows can be powerful, especially when a stock has a limited public float and heavy retail interest.
SpaceX’s addition follows recent rule changes that allow very large IPOs to enter major benchmarks faster than before, reflecting the market’s rush to make room for new mega-cap technology names.
For traders, the Nasdaq-100 entry is less about SpaceX’s rockets and more about mechanical demand.
The question is whether that demand is still strong enough to lift a stock that has already traded like a market event in itself.
SpaceX has been volatile since listing.
The stock surged as much as 67% after its debut before sliding sharply in the following days, a move analysts tied more to IPO dynamics and positioning than to a major shift in fundamentals.
Bulls say the story is bigger than rocketsThe bullish case is that SpaceX is being misread as a rocket company when Wall Street should be valuing it as a space, broadband and AI infrastructure platform.
Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.
The firm argues that SpaceX’s next leg of growth could come from a vertically integrated terrestrial-and-orbital compute stack, not only launch services and Starlink broadband.
That is a much bigger story than index inclusion alone. If investors accept the AI infrastructure thesis, SpaceX could command a valuation closer to fast-growing technology platforms than traditional aerospace peers.
Wedbush is also constructive, though with a more measured target as the firm initiated SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, citing Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure and space-based connectivity as multiple growth drivers.
That gives bulls a simple argument: Nasdaq-100 buying may help the stock today, but the longer-term case rests on whether SpaceX can become a platform company across launch, broadband and AI-linked infrastructure.
The bear case is just as clear. SpaceX may be an exceptional company, but the stock already carries exceptional expectations.
Morningstar’s Michael Field told Reuters that the fast-track index entry shows strong demand for SpaceX shares, but he also said Morningstar views the stock as overvalued.
That warning matters because index buying can support a stock temporarily, but it does not settle the valuation debate.
Options markets are also signalling caution.
Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson saw traders assigning about a 40% probability that SpaceX would trade below $130 by mid-September.
Short interest adds another layer of volatility as it has climbed to 196 million shares, or about 31% of SpaceX’s tradable float.
Short sellers were sitting on about $760 million in mark-to-market losses since the IPO.
Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg called the rise in short bets “extraordinary” for a stock public for less than a month, and said continued strength could provide “potential fuel” for a squeeze.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%) held its historic initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. The rocket company went public with a record market value of $1.7 trillion at its IPO price of $135 per share.
SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on July 7. Its inclusion is unprecedented because the index has traditionally considered only stocks that have been public for at least three months. But the seasoning period was reduced to 15 days earlier this year to fast-track the entry of large IPOs.
Historically, stocks have delivered strong gains during the 12-month period post-inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. Here's what investors should know.
Image source: Getty Images.
History says SpaceX stock will increase 18% in the next year The Nasdaq-100 tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. The index excludes financial companies to focus on more innovative market sectors with higher growth potential, particularly technology. For that reason, the Nasdaq-100 is widely regarded as a benchmark for growth stocks.
During the last decade, 92 stocks were added to the Nasdaq-100. Those stocks returned an average of 10% during the six-month period post-inclusion and 18% during the 12-month period post-inclusion. Put differently, history says SpaceX stock will increase 10% by January 2027 and 18% by July 2027.
Why do stocks go up after joining a major market index? Funds that track that index must purchase the stock to accurately reflect the benchmark. That influx of capital can push the share price higher, at least temporarily. Of course, how SpaceX actually performs in the months ahead depends primarily on the company's financial results and investor sentiment.
Today's Change
(
-0.97
%) $
-1.58
Current Price
$
160.42
SpaceX stock trades at an extremely expensive valuation SpaceX has revolutionized space travel by developing reusable rockets that dramatically reduce per-launch costs by spreading manufacturing expenses across multiple missions. "The company's core strength is its ability to deliver payloads to orbit at unmatched scale, frequency, reliability, and cost efficiency," writes Nicolas Owens at Morningstar.
SpaceX has leaned on that advantage to deploy communications satellites at an unprecedented pace. Its Starlink constellation comprises about 10,000 satellites that serve more than 10 million subscribers, making it the largest satellite internet service by a wide margin. And adoption is happening quickly; subscribers doubled in the past year.
SpaceX currently earns the vast majority of its revenue from Starlink, but artificial intelligence infrastructure could become an even larger source of revenue in the future. SpaceX recently agreed to rent data center capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet for monthly fees of $1.25 billion and $920 million, respectively.
Beyond that, SpaceX plans to deploy orbital AI compute satellites (i.e., space-based data centers) as early as 2028. "We believe these AI compute satellites in sun-synchronous orbit will be able to handle energy-intensive AI workloads, such as inference demand, at far greater scale and efficiency than terrestrial alternatives," the company wrote in its Form S-1.
In total, SpaceX values its addressable market at an astronomical $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion of that figure attributed to AI products. However, future revenue streams tied to AI products (such as orbital data centers) are highly uncertain, which makes the current valuation of 110 times sales very difficult to justify.
For context, Rocket Lab is currently the second most richly valued stock in the Nasdaq-100, with a price-to-sales multiple of 88. SpaceX is 25% more expensive. The premium is unsustainable, in my opinion. I think investors should either avoid SpaceX or, at the very least, keep positions in the stock small.
Dan Ives initiated a new price target for SpaceX (SPCX 0.97%) stock that is telling.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 2, 2026. The video was published on July 4, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX 0.97%) (SpaceX) initial public offering (IPO) was undoubtedly the most hyped IPO in recent stock market memory. It didn't disappoint, either, setting the record for the largest IPO in stock market history, with an initial valuation of around $1.77 trillion. Now, it's valued at over $2.1 trillion as of market close on July 2.
In the short time since its June 12 IPO, SpaceX's stock is relatively flat (from the price the average investor could have paid), experiencing roller coaster ups and downs. Still, there's a lot of hype surrounding both the company and the stock -- but is it overhyped? It depends on how you define it.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX is going just beyond rockets SpaceX is transforming from a rocket launch company into a respectable conglomerate with thriving subsidiaries under its wing. It has its core launch business, which is the largest in the world; Starlink is growing impressively and providing internet to some of the most remote places globally; and X's (formerly Twitter) parent company, xAI, has artificial intelligence infrastructure that many tech companies would give their right arm for.
Much of the appeal of SpaceX's business, however, is its ambitious plan for the future. Moonshot plans (no pun intended) like data centers in space and everyday human space travel spark the interest of investors and Elon Musk fans who see SpaceX's trajectory mirroring that of Musk's other company, Tesla. Tesla's returns have been just above the S&P 500's over the past five years, but it's up over 30,600% since its July 2010 IPO.
We can't predict how SpaceX's stock will perform, but it has businesses worth being excited about.
Today's Change
(
-0.97
%) $
-1.58
Current Price
$
160.42
If by overhyped, you mean that SpaceX is all promise and nothing to show, then I would say no, it's not. If by overhyped you mean extremely expensive for a business that is currently operating at a loss and built on (very) long-term promises, then I would say yes.
Taking SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and its $2.1 trillion valuation, it's currently trading at 112 times its sales (P/S ratio). For comparison, here are the P/S ratios for some notable companies and their year-over-year revenue growth last quarter:
CompanyP/S RatioLatest Revenue GrowthBroadcom23.348%Nvidia18.885%Alphabet10.422%Apple10.117%Amazon3.517% Source: YCharts. P/S ratios as of market close on July 2.
These aren't apples-to-apples comparisons, but the larger point is how much of a premium you'd be paying for SpaceX's stock right now, even before seeing one quarterly earnings report as a public company.
This isn't a knock on SpaceX as a company by any means, but a great company doesn't always make a great investment. If you already own shares, I would hold onto them (you should be focused on the long term either way), but if you're thinking about making your first investment, I would wait it out a bit.
Stefon Walters has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Smart investors know to watch out for bear markets. Wise investors, however, know the signs of such setbacks aren't always obvious. Sometimes you need to keep your eyes peeled for subtle hints of trouble.
Harvard University economist Xavier Gabaix thinks we may be seeing one of those hints right now. He's observed that investors often buy into initial public offerings -- like the recent one from Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%) (aka SpaceX) and the impending ones from OpenAI and Anthropic -- with money from the sale of other stocks. His number-crunching shows that historically, for every $1 removed from the market, the total market cap of the stock market falls by $5. Investment advisory outfit GMO performed a similar analysis and got a similar (but slightly worse) outcome.
And there's no denying that public offerings are flowing in earnest now. J.P. Morgan Private Bank, the wealth management division for JPMorgan, predicts a total of $260 billion will be raised this year through the issuance of newly minted stocks. That nearly eclipses the post-pandemic fundraising surge of 2021, when companies rushed to capitalize on the rapid economic recovery then underway as well as on a market that was receptive to new publicly traded companies at any price. The last time we got anywhere close to these inflation-adjusted levels was back in 1999-2000, right before the dot-com crash. Before that, you have to go back to 1929 to see anything quite like what's happening now. Of course, that's the year Black Tuesday kicked off a miserable bear market and the Great Depression.
Connect the dots. Exuberance seems to be at its highest right before everything unravels.
More to the point for investors right now, the current flood of new fundraising implies that corporate confidence -- in businesses as well as the economy -- is dangerously high, portending a fall. Indeed, some analysis suggests a tumble of about 40% within a year could be in the cards.
There's something to it The concern stemming from the correlation makes sense, and not just because of what happened a couple of times in the past. There was a pretty good swell of IPO activity in 2014, too. Although it didn't lead to a recession or a bear market, it did precede an economic headwind and a measurable setback in the S&P 500's (^GSPC +0.72%) earnings as well as in domestic corporate profits the following year. And when Black Monday unfurled back in October of 1987, a whopping 229 companies were planning public offerings (versus about 200 so far this year), according to numbers gathered by research company EBSCO, looking to capitalize on the steep valuations the bull market of the time was supporting.
Just understand that correlation isn't causation. If the market is set for a sizable setback, it's not specifically because too many companies are raising too much money by going public. That's a symptom, not the cause.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rather, if a pullback occurs, it will be because most investors decide that stocks as a whole aren't justifying their current valuations with actual earnings -- current or projected.
That's a distinction worth highlighting because bear markets can happen with or without an explosion in the number of IPOs or the amount of money they're raising. For instance, we didn't see a bunch more public offerings in 2007 before 2008's subprime mortgage meltdown, which also ended a nice bull market. Conversely, while IPOs peaked in 1999 right before 2000's tumble, public offerings were unusually high -- in terms of total count and money raised -- for most of the 1990s. The market rallied most of that time anyway.
The point is, when you're picking stocks or deciding to be in or out of the market, you should evaluate each situation individually.
So what's the answer? The recent swell of IPO fundraising is an important nuance to consider since it could be an indicator of what former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan labeled "irrational exuberance" back in 1996, when the dot-com mania first started heating up. It's just one of many details to consider, though, and it certainly shouldn't scare you. Scared investors make rash decisions that end up hurting them in the long run. Informed investors make well-reasoned decisions that accurately weigh risks against rewards, and they make measured changes to their portfolios as that information evolves.
In other words, don't panic here. If a bear market is brewing, it won't unfurl in a single day. Use the time you've got to think your decisions through. And never say never. Again, public offerings were unusually elevated for the better part of the 1990s, but the market logged gains for most of this stretch. Something similar could happen now, in defiance of the historical odds.
It's also possible that investors' selling existing positions to fund participation in this year's IPOs won't actually send the shares of those existing holdings lower this time around. This is a very unusual market environment, after all, one in which small-time retail traders are more active and have more impact than they ever have before. If nothing else, small investors are more likely than their bigger institutional counterparts to buy stocks on a dip, buoying the market.
Still, don't ignore the sudden swell of IPOs. There's no denying that when you see something this rare, something unusual is happening. The trick is figuring out what that thing really is.
The question of who owns the most stock means more when you're asking about Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%) than when you're asking about a typical public company. The June 2026 IPO floated a thin slice of the business -- nearly 4.3% of the equity -- which means the people and firms who held shares before the debut own the rest. The ownership structure that developed across two private decades when SpaceX was a private company is the one that governs it now that it's public, and it puts a small number of names in charge of a $2 trillion enterprise.
Today's Change
(
-0.97
%) $
-1.58
Current Price
$
160.42
Elon Musk owns the most SpaceX stock There is no contest at the top. Elon Musk holds close to 42% of the equity, a stake worth more than $1 trillion at the IPO valuation. Musk's block sits under a lockup that lasts until June 2027, with no early release provision, so the largest holder is a seller of nothing for the first year on the market.
Image source: Getty Images.
The outside investors who own the most SpaceX stock Behind Musk, the biggest holder is a name many investors miss. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (GOOGL +1.87%), the parent of Google, owns close to 7% of SpaceX, a position that can be traced to a $1 billion investment it made alongside Fidelity in January 2015 (Alphabet invested $900 million, with Fidelity contributing the remaining $100 million). That single check turned Google into the largest outside shareholder in the company, a bet on rockets from a search and advertising business.
The early venture backers hold the most striking returns rather than the largest slices. Founders Fund, a firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, wrote a $20 million check in SpaceX's 2008 Series C round, and that stake is now worth $50 billion. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Valor Equity Partners each hold positions of around 2% or below. The February 2026 merger with xAI added new faces to the list, including Nvidia and the Qatar Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund.
The employees and the public shareholders One large block hides in plain sight. SpaceX pays its workforce with restricted stock units and options, so employees hold a collective stake that the company does not break out in its filings. That group has waited years for the tender offers, and the staggered lockup schedule that lets them sell, and the size of their holdings is one of the least visible parts of the ownership story.
You don't have much power if you buy SpaceX Beyond them sit everyone who bought at the IPO or after. Public shareholders own the small float, and more shares will reach the market as insider lockups expire throughout late 2026.
The ownership map delivers one clear message: Buying SpaceX stock makes you an owner of the economics, but it doesn't give you a voice in the company's direction. SpaceX uses a dual-class structure: Musk's Class B shares carry 10 votes each, giving him 82.4% of the voting power. A public shareholder who buys Class A stock gains economic exposure to the rocket and satellite business without a real say in how it is run.
Put plainly, the float exists so the public can fund the vision while the people who already own it decide what that vision costs and who profits from it. You get a ticker, a price that moves, and the privilege of watching Musk run a $2 trillion company on your money. If the board ever faces a hard call between what serves Class A holders and what serves the man holding 82.4% of the votes, the math has been settled since before you showed up.
You are along for the ride, not steering it, and the ride is being priced at a valuation that assumes almost everything goes right. Whether that's a risk you want to take is up to you.
VivoPower PLC (NASDAQ:VIVO, FRA:51J) announced on Monday that it is conducting a technical and commercial feasibility study to evaluate the integration of a battery energy storage system at its 41.5-megawatt Mo i Rana data center in Northern Norway, targeting up to approximately $4 million in incremental annualized EBITDA.
The company said the projected earnings would come from enabling participation in additional Nordic grid reserve markets, including Frequency Containment Reserve for Normal operation, expanded Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances, and Fast Frequency Response.
According to VivoPower, the estimate is based on internal analysis using prevailing 2025-2026 Nordic reserve market clearing prices and remains subject to external feasibility validation, prequalification, capital availability, market conditions, and other approvals.
The company said a co-located battery system would allow the site to access reserve products that are not economically available through its compute load alone because of endurance, symmetry, and response-speed requirements. Capacity payments would be earned on a pay-for-availability basis, with additional activation payments available separately.
VivoPower said the Mo i Rana facility is located in Norway's NO4 bidding zone, where it cited average day-ahead power prices of approximately $0.009 per kilowatt-hour in 2025. The company noted that the combination of low power costs and participation in the Nordic Balancing Model positions the site as an attractive location for industrial demand response and battery storage.
If implemented, the battery system would also be designed to preserve the data center's full 41.5 MW leasable capacity for artificial intelligence compute tenants while improving power quality, ride-through capability, and operational flexibility, according to the company.
VivoPower said the feasibility study will assess factors including electrical headroom, transformer and switchgear capacity, protection systems, metering and settlement architecture, the prequalification process with Statnett, and the interaction between battery operations and tenant service level agreements.
Any final investment decision will be subject to completion of the feasibility study, board approval, tenant consultation, and applicable Norwegian regulatory and grid-connection approvals.
The company said it will provide updates as the project reaches future milestones.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100 index before US markets open on Tuesday, marking one of the fastest additions to the benchmark following its recent initial public offering.
The inclusion follows a change to Nasdaq's eligibility rules that allows certain large-cap IPOs to enter the index after 15 trading days, rather than waiting for the next annual reconstitution.
The move is expected to trigger billions of dollars in passive buying as exchange-traded funds and mutual funds that track the Nasdaq-100 rebalance their portfolios. JPMorgan has estimated that approximately $4.3 billion of SpaceX shares could be purchased by index-tracking funds, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) and Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM).
Despite SpaceX's roughly $2.1 trillion market valuation, the company is expected to receive an index weighting of around 1%. The Nasdaq-100 is weighted by free-float market capitalization, meaning only shares available for public trading are included in the calculation. With less than 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares publicly available following its IPO, the company's weighting is expected to remain relatively modest.
The addition also comes as SpaceX's post-IPO quiet period expires, allowing investment banks and research firms involved in the offering to begin publishing analyst coverage and price targets.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote that investors will continue debating whether technology stock valuations are justified as SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100.
"Remember, Nasdaq changed the inclusion rules to include SpaceX, which would normally not make its way so quickly into such a broadly watched and traded index, given its extremely low free float, its governance – Elon Musk has more than 80% of voting rights – and its fundamentals, as the company went public at a valuation of more than 100 times last year's sales," Ozkardeskaya wrote.
She added that "SpaceX's inclusion will increase the Nasdaq 100's volatility, challenge its capacity to represent underlying economic and financial fundamentals, and potentially hurt its credibility."
Ozkardeskaya also noted that the end of the quiet period will bring the first wave of Wall Street research on the stock, while "the early enthusiasm faded fast, with the price coming close to its IPO level after a more than 50% surge in the early days."
SpaceX shares have experienced volatile trading since their market debut. The stock closed at $162 late last week, above its IPO opening price of $150 but more than 20% below its post-listing high. Shares fell another almost 4% to about $156.
Unlike the S&P 500, which generally requires companies to trade publicly for at least a year before becoming eligible for inclusion, the Nasdaq-100's revised fast-track rules were designed to accommodate large IPOs more quickly. SpaceX will be added to the index in a single rebalancing event rather than in phased installments.
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX 0.99%) first few weeks as a public company have already reminded investors that even great businesses can become volatile stocks. SpaceX shares surged in the days after the company went public in early June 2026, hitting an intraday high of $225.64.
Image source: Getty Images.
Since then, the stock has pulled back and is down to around $162. The stock remains above its $135 IPO price and is still far from cheap. But the sell-off has made the risk-reward question more interesting.
Here are a few factors for investors to consider before buying a stake in this dominant space, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company.
Starlink is a profitable business The clearest reason supporting the contrarian case for SpaceX is its Starlink satellite internet business. Starlink-powered connectivity business contributed about 60% of SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue and generated $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025. Starlink also had 10.3 million users at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Although SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025, Starlink gives the company a profitable business that can help fund its broader growth ambitions.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
Additionally, the Federal Communications Commission approved SpaceX to deploy 7,500 additional second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the authorized Gen2 satellite count to 15,000. This approval should help the company increase broadband capacity, expand mobile connectivity services, and improve global coverage over time.
AI-powered demand and index addition SpaceX's AI infrastructure business is already securing major customer commitments. Alphabet agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for compute capacity, including access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs. Anthropic has also agreed to use the full computing power of SpaceX's Colossus 1 facility, which houses more than 220,000 Nvidia processors and will provide the Claude maker with 300 megawatts of new capacity. According to Reuters, the two compute deals are worth about $26 billion annually if contracts are not terminated before their scheduled end dates.
SpaceX is also set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, giving it a place in an index of major nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq. According to estimates from J.P. Morgan cited by Reuters, funds tracking the index may need to buy about $4.3 billion of SpaceX shares to reflect the company's addition.
Short interest has also climbed to 196 million shares, or about 31% of the shares available for public trading. While these investors are betting against SpaceX, if the stock starts rising again, some of those short sellers may have to buy shares to close their positions. This could further fuel the stock's rebound.
Certain risks cannot be ignored SpaceX is trading at nearly 81 times trailing-12-month sales. This is a demanding multiple for a company that is still loss-making and spending heavily on several growth initiatives.
The next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, could become a major long-term growth driver for SpaceX. But NASA's inspector general has warned that delays and the challenge of refueling the vehicle in space still make it a major execution risk.
SpaceX may be worth considering for investors comfortable with a premium valuation and significant execution risk.
Elon Musk is leading a group of investors making a bid for OpenAI. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images xAI is no more.
The AI company founded by Elon Musk and acquired by his rocket company earlier this year has officially rebranded to SpaceXAI, debuting a new logo and an update to its username on X.
SpaceX acquired xAI — including its flagship chatbot, Grok, as well as X — in February, putting the billionaire's space, AI, and social media products all under one roof.
The handle for the xAI account changed to SpaceXAI on Monday. The account also shared a video of the xAI logo getting folded into a new SpaceXAI logo.
Musk said in May that xAI would be dissolved as a separate company and folded into SpaceX, with the company's AI products branded as SpaceXAI.
The rebrand comes after SpaceX's blockbuster IPO in June. SpaceX made history as the largest public offering ever, raising $75 billion with a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, briefly making Musk the world's first trillionaire.
While SpaceX is best known for its rockets and extraterrestrial ambitions, its IPO filings revealed just how much it was investing in AI.
The company's capital expenditures on AI were $12.7 billion in 2025, or more than three times what it spent on its space and connectivity segments, which include Starlink, its satellite internet service.
Its AI segment has been a net loss for the company, but SpaceX believes it has the most potential, saying the total addressable market is the largest "in human history." SpaceX said it plans to deploy "AI compute satellites," or data centers in space, as early as 2028.
The company has also landed some big AI infrastructure deals, with Anthropic agreeing to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for access to compute power at its Colossus data centers and Google agreeing to pay $920 million a month.
Read next
Kelsey Vlamis You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Kelsey is a senior reporter for Business Insider, where she covers business and tech news as well as stories about travel, luxury, and consulting.Her feature story "Disaster at 18,200 feet" received awards from the New York Press Club and the North American Travel Journalists Association, as well as honorable mention from the Society of American Travel Writers. It was also included on Longreads' and Pocket's best of 2022 lists. She has also received an American Journalism Online Award for her coverage on missing and murdered Indigenous people in Wyoming.She's appeared on CBS, NPR, NBC, and other outlets to discuss her work. She previously worked on the world news desk at the BBC in London and received a master's in journalism from Northwestern University.She can be reached by email at [email protected] or via the encrypted-messaging app Signal @kelseyv.21.Popular storiesDisaster on Denali: Inside a 1,000-foot fall on America's highest peakThrifting is more popular than ever. It's also never been worse.Rolex wouldn't service the vintage watch my mom inherited. Watchmakers say it happens all the time.A tiny, invasive bug and the climate crisis are changing how guitars are made, and shifting the course of music historyThe tourism free-for-all is overGovernment-run boarding schools were founded to 'civilize' Native Americans. Hundreds of dead children remain buried in the schoolyard graves.Meet the Texas minister who helps fly dozens of women to New Mexico every month to get abortionsPeople are flocking to Colorado for the great outdoors, but the air pollution is so bad, it's forcing many to stay insideInside Kabul: An aid worker reveals the devastating chaos that erupted during the US exit from Afghanistan
The trading activity of members of Congress continues to be closely followed by retail traders, especially when stocks related to committee assignments are traded.
• SpaceX stock is showing downward pressure. What’s ahead for SPCX stock?
Congressman Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.) is no stranger to buying up stocks, with thousands of trades made over the past two years. A recent disclosure, reported by the Benzinga Government Trades page, could spark conflict of interest complaints.
The latest disclosure includes hundreds of trades made in June, mostly purchases, but some sales as well. The transactions are in the $1,000 to $15,000 and $15,000 to $50,000 range.
Out of the numerous trades, the one that stands out in the latest round is the congressman buying shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).
Cisneros disclosed buying $1,000 to $15,000 in SpaceX stock on June 18. The purchase came when shares traded between $172.11 and $190, higher than the current $160.42 price.
The congressman serves on the Armed Services Committee, which makes the purchase of SpaceX stock a questionable one.
SpaceX has multiple federal government contracts, including those with the Pentagon, NASA and Space Force.
As a member of the committee, Cisneros may know of government contracts ahead of time. Cisneros may also vote on contracts directly related to the company he owns stock in.
Cisneros’ Trading HistoryCisnero is an active trader among members of Congress.
The congressman has made over 2,500 stock transactions according to data from Quiver Quantitative.
Benzinga previously flagged that Cisneros owning stocks such as Palantir and Lockheed Martin had attracted attention due to his committee assignment for the House Armed Services.
Being a member of the committee that knows about government contracts and helps with the budgets and awards of contracts could lead to members of Congress having inside information on which defense stocks will benefit in the future.
In 2025, Cisneros made $22.26 million in trades. So far in 2026, the congressman’s trading volume is $11.38 million.
Photo: Thrive Studios ID / Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
"The U.S. outperformance story remains resilient," says Jayme Colosimo, who talks about tech broadening beyond the Mag 7 as a sign of strength. A signal of weakness she sees: the jobs market, highlighted by recent data.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) was an IPO of superlatives. From its unparalleled $75 billion raise to its enormous day-one trading volume, it broke so many records that it probably even broke the record for breaking the most records. With a heady mix of space travel, artificial intelligence (AI), and proposals to take tourists to the moon, it's natural to wonder if SpaceX has a place in your portfolio.
The trouble is that it is hard to justify a valuation of over $2 trillion for a firm that reported a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and had total 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Plus, many of the claims in its prospectus -- including the potential total addressable market of $28.5 trillion -- don't stand up to scrutiny. If you're thinking of buying SpaceX today, here are three things to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. You may already own it Several major indexes fast-tracked SpaceX's entry, causing index funds to automatically add the stock. The Russell 1000 added SpaceX on June 27, and the Nasdaq-100 followed on July 7, so investors who hold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror those indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF or the Invesco QQQ Trust, already own a small stake in SpaceX.
Other technology- and space-themed ETFs also give exposure to SpaceX. These include Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF and iShares AI Innovation and Tech Active ETF. Think about what percentage of your portfolio you want to allocate to SpaceX and what you'll get through your existing investments.
2. SpaceX is burning through a lot of cash Last year, SpaceX's capital expenditure (capex) totaled $21 billion for its space, connectivity, and AI segments. This year, it is spending money even faster: It burned through over $10 billion in Q1 alone. SpaceX is different from the AI hyperscalers racing for dominance because big tech firms like Alphabet have pretty solid financial cushions and are generating significant revenue to justify some of the costs.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
In fairness, SpaceX has already landed three major AI deals, and its Starlink internet arm does generate cash. Even so, it is borrowing heavily to fund its expansion into two high-risk areas -- space and AI -- and it isn't clear when they will start to pay off. In fact, some of its forays into unproven technologies may never generate revenue.
3. Elon Musk is part of SpaceX's DNA SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is part of why the company's IPO broke so many records. Some invested in SpaceX purely because they believed Musk could deliver, regardless of the risks. But his reputation is not the only reason Musk and SpaceX are tied; the firm is structured around his leadership.
Musk's Class B shares have 10 times the voting power of the Class A shares investors bought in its IPO, giving him control of around 80% of SpaceX's votes. Among other things, if shareholders lose faith in his leadership, they can't force his dismissal. That raises some interesting governance questions that will likely play out in the coming years.
It also raises a practical issue because Musk has other commitments, and any distractions could delay SpaceX's ambitious timelines. Moreover, without a clear succession plan, SpaceX may not survive if ill health or other issues remove Musk from the helm.
The period after high-profile IPOs is always volatile. Throw in the high risks, heavy spending, debt, and structural challenges, and it makes sense for long-term investors to wait and reevaluate SpaceX once the frenzy has passed.
For years, the only investors who owned a slice of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) were employees, venture funds, and a small circle of the wealthy. That barrier is breaking apart. Over the next 18 months, exposure to Elon Musk's rocket and satellite maker will reach everyday 401(k) and IRA balances through three distinct channels. Each arrives on its own schedule, and each carries a different set of trade-offs worth understanding before you chase the story.
To better understand the company's path to the public markets, it's worth reviewing the SpaceX IPO prospectus and important things investors should know.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
Wave 1: The funds that hold SpaceX shares The first wave has been in motion for a while, and most people missed it. A cluster of funds hold private SpaceX stock and sit inside common retirement menus. Destiny Tech100, a closed-end fund, counts SpaceX as its largest position. The ARK Venture Fund holds a comparable weight, and large mutual funds such as Fidelity Contrafund and the Baron Partners Fund carry meaningful stakes. Millions of savers own a sliver of SpaceX and have no idea, because these funds appear as options in workplace plans and brokerage IRAs.
The catch is that private shares are hard to value between funding rounds, and a vehicle like Destiny Tech100 has at times traded at a steep premium to the worth of what it holds. You could pay more than a dollar for a dollar of assets.
Wave 2: Private assets move into 401(k) plans The second wave is a rule change. In August 2025, an executive order directed the Department of Labor to open 401(k) plans to alternative assets -- private equity, private credit, real estate, and digital assets. That decision opens a door for target-date funds, the default choice for most workers, to add private-market sleeves that could include names like SpaceX.
Image source: Getty Images.
The promise is access to growth that used to sit off-limits to regular savers. The concern is cost and structure. Private-equity vehicles charge a 2% management fee plus 20% of profits, lock money up for years, and price holdings on a schedule rather than by the minute. Those features fit a pension better than they fit a saver who might need to move money on short notice. If a private sleeve appears in your plan menu, read the fine print before it becomes your default fund.
Wave 3: The 2026 SpaceX IPO puts shares in your hands The third wave has arrived. On June 12, SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and the debut broke records. The company priced its shares at $135 and raised about $86 billion, the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. The stock opened at $150, touched $176 during the session, and closed near $161 for a first-day gain of about 19%. By the closing bell, SpaceX carried a market value close to $2.1 trillion, which placed it among the most valuable companies listed in the United States and turned Musk into the world's first trillionaire on paper.
For retirement savers, the mechanics have changed in a real way. Before June, owning a piece of SpaceX meant buying a fund that held private shares and trusting its markup. Now the stock trades on an exchange, so any brokerage account, IRA, or self-directed 401(k) can buy a single share just as it would any listed stock. No fund wrapper, no premium-to-net asset value, no multiyear lockup between you and the position.
That access is the good news. The price is the hard part. A market cap above $2 trillion bakes in a future of moon bases, a high Starship flight rate, and the orbital data centers the company keeps describing -- outcomes that could take a decade to prove. SpaceX funds much of that vision with losses, Musk holds voting control that limits what outside shareholders can influence, and the first-day pop means anyone who bought after the open paid more than the institutions that received the $135 allocation.
A stock that jumps 19% on day one can drift for months while the business grows into the story. The wrapper risk from the first wave is gone, but valuation risk has taken its place.
The takeaway for retirement savers Three waves, one company, and a different job for each. Wave 1, the funds that hold SpaceX, remains an option for anyone who wants a small position, though the premium fades once the stock trades on its own. Wave 2 will reach your plan menu as private-asset sleeves land in target-date funds, so weigh the fees against the promise of private growth. Wave 3 is complete: You can own SpaceX shares inside a retirement account for the first time.
I would treat the opening weeks as noise rather than signal, size any position to match a bet that needs years to play out, and let the valuation cool before deciding what a trillion-dollar rocket company is worth to you.
HomeMarketsU.S. & CanadaMarket ExtraMarket ExtraWhile SpaceX is due to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, it isn’t eligible to become part of the S&P 500 for at least another year — likely furthering the volatility spread between those two indexesJuly 6, 2026, 6:39 p.m. ET
The Nasdaq-100 has already been unusually volatile relative to the S&P 500 — and now it’s about to gain exposure to a stock known for making dramatic moves.
The Cboe Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index XX:VXN, which trades under the ticker symbol “VXN,” has surged around 43% this year through Thursday, as U.S. investors headed into the three-day holiday weekend, according to FactSet data. That’s a far bigger jump than the 8% one seen for the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, a measure of options activity linked to the S&P 500, which indicates volatility expected over the next month.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%) officially went public on June 12. In the process, it became the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever and currently has a total market cap of more than $2 trillion.
On July 7, the company and the stock will make history again. Not only will SpaceX officially join the Nasdaq-100 index, but it'll also be the first to do so under the newly created "fast-track entry" rules for mega-IPOs.
Image source: Getty Images.
What is the Nasdaq's new fast-track entry process for IPOs? Nasdaq announced these new rules in May:
For the very largest new listings, those that rank within the top 40 of current Nasdaq‑100 constituents by Full Market Capitalization, there is also a Fast Entry pathway. These companies are evaluated on their seventh trading day and, if eligible, added shortly thereafter, with all existing liquidity requirements still applying.
This means that new listings meeting both size and liquidity requirements can be added to the index as soon as the 15th trading day following the IPO. The biggest reason for the policy change is SpaceX, but it's also due to the likely imminent IPOs on Anthropic and OpenAI. Both of those companies could be debuting with multitrillion-dollar market caps as well.
This will impact shareholders of the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ +1.43%) and the Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM +1.43%), which are both tied to the index, the most. Because weightings in the index are based on free-float market capitalization and not total market cap, SpaceX will likely see a weighting of around 1% when it joins.
Most stocks used to go public when they were much smaller and grow over time. Lately, companies have been remaining private longer until they decide to go public when they're much larger. SpaceX is the first example of the major market indices adjusting to reflect that. And there's likely more to come.
David Dierking has positions in Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Following its IPO and subsequent bond offering, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) now has more than $100 billion in new capital at its disposal. Expect SpaceX to go on a massive spending spree to spur growth and justify its $2 trillion valuation.
What will SpaceX's spending focus on? Artificial intelligence will likely be the biggest beneficiary. More than 90% of SpaceX's claimed total addressable market is AI-focused. That means investors should expect the company to dramatically scale terrestrial data center construction. But SpaceX will also now aggressively pursue putting AI data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers (ODCs).
ODCs will need many things to happen before they become a reality, one of which is successful commercialization of SpaceX's Starship megarocket. This megarocket -- which is significantly larger than the company's Falcon Heavy rocket -- would meaningfully improve SpaceX's ability to get larger payloads to space more affordably. ODCs, for example, could be launched at scale using Starship rockets.
One of SpaceX's biggest constraints on growth in this opportunity set, however, is access to rocket fuel. To solve that problem, SpaceX is reportedly looking to build its own natural gas pipeline. SpaceX may even look to produce its own natural gas over the long term.
How will this impact energy markets, and in particular, pipeline stocks? There are two factors to consider.
Today's Change
(
-0.99
%) $
-1.60
Current Price
$
160.40
1. SpaceX's natural gas pipeline won't endanger pipeline stocks According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas pipelines deliver roughly 30 trillion cubic feet to nearly 80 million consumers each year. A single Starship launch, for comparison, uses around 630,000 gallons of liquid methane, which equates to around 0.0000521 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Even if SpaceX launched 1,000 Starship rockets every year, it would still amount to less than 0.2% of U.S. natural gas demand transported by pipelines.
In short, SpaceX's actions aren't about to disintermediate conventional pipeline networks. In fact, SpaceX's actions could benefit certain pipeline networks in the long term.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Pipeline stocks could actually benefit from SpaceX's actions long term According to reporting from Reuters, SpaceX "plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile natural gas pipeline called 'Starpipe' to its Texas launch facilities." Construction is expected to conclude in January 2027.
Reuters observes:
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds, and eventually thousands of launches a year.
Where will Starpipe's natural gas come from? SpaceX apparently wants to explore drilling for its own natural gas in the long term. But for now, it seems likely that supply will come from Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline.
Pipeline stocks, therefore, won't be affected by SpaceX's foray into pipeline construction. Enbridge may even benefit directly, with other natural gas pipeline stocks benefiting from a new source of demand that could support prices over the long term, even if it remains a fraction of total U.S. demand.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100 index before US markets open on Tuesday, marking one of the fastest additions to the benchmark following its recent initial public offering.
The inclusion follows a change to Nasdaq's eligibility rules that allows certain large-cap IPOs to enter the index after 15 trading days, rather than waiting for the next annual reconstitution.
The move is expected to trigger billions of dollars in passive buying as exchange-traded funds and mutual funds that track the Nasdaq-100 rebalance their portfolios. JPMorgan has estimated that approximately $4.3 billion of SpaceX shares could be purchased by index-tracking funds, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) and Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM).
Despite SpaceX's roughly $2.1 trillion market valuation, the company is expected to receive an index weighting of around 1%. The Nasdaq-100 is weighted by free-float market capitalization, meaning only shares available for public trading are included in the calculation. With less than 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares publicly available following its IPO, the company's weighting is expected to remain relatively modest.
The addition also comes as SpaceX's post-IPO quiet period expires, allowing investment banks and research firms involved in the offering to begin publishing analyst coverage and price targets.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote that investors will continue debating whether technology stock valuations are justified as SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100.
"Remember, Nasdaq changed the inclusion rules to include SpaceX, which would normally not make its way so quickly into such a broadly watched and traded index, given its extremely low free float, its governance – Elon Musk has more than 80% of voting rights – and its fundamentals, as the company went public at a valuation of more than 100 times last year's sales," Ozkardeskaya wrote.
She added that "SpaceX's inclusion will increase the Nasdaq 100's volatility, challenge its capacity to represent underlying economic and financial fundamentals, and potentially hurt its credibility."
Ozkardeskaya also noted that the end of the quiet period will bring the first wave of Wall Street research on the stock, while "the early enthusiasm faded fast, with the price coming close to its IPO level after a more than 50% surge in the early days."
SpaceX shares have experienced volatile trading since their market debut. The stock closed at $162 late last week, above its IPO opening price of $150 but more than 20% below its post-listing high. Shares fell another almost 4% to about $156.
Unlike the S&P 500, which generally requires companies to trade publicly for at least a year before becoming eligible for inclusion, the Nasdaq-100's revised fast-track rules were designed to accommodate large IPOs more quickly. SpaceX will be added to the index in a single rebalancing event rather than in phased installments.
Predicting any company's next three years is an impossible task, but doing so for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.70%) is perhaps especially so.
SpaceX's rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet service, and artificial intelligence (AI) data center business are distinct businesses that could define the company in the coming years. And all will take an immense amount of resources to continue growing.
Still, it's worth considering how each might look three years from now. Here's where SpaceX could be.
Image source: Getty Images.
Increased emphasis on SpaceX's data center business SpaceX is quickly morphing into an artificial intelligence company, most recently through its $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI software and coding specialist Cursor, to better compete with Anthropic's Claude Code. And it's already inking huge deals as it builds out a growing neocloud business.
Neocloud companies sell their data center capacity to other tech companies, and SpaceX has already made some large deals. For example, Alphabet's Google signed a three-year deal with SpaceX to supply some of its data center capacity for its Gemini AI model, generating about $30 billion for SpaceX by 2029. And Anthropic is already paying SpaceX about $15 billion annually over the next three years to rent out all of its Colossus 1 data center capacity.
What this means for SpaceX is that over the next three years or so, it could become a very important player in AI data centers. Gartner estimates neocloud players could capture 20% of the AI cloud market by 2030. With its current moves, SpaceX is already in a very strong position to take a leading role in space.
Starlink will continue expanding Starlink is arguably SpaceX's most important business right now, accounting for about 61% of the company's total sales. It's also SpaceX's only profitable business.
Starlink has an impressive 12 million subscribers already, brought in $11.4 billion in sales in 2025, and had $4.4 billion in operating income last year. And SpaceX aims to expand Starlink in the coming years. It's already in the midst of getting ready for a 1,200 satellite launch in mid-2027 using its Starship rocket.
Today's Change
(
-3.70
%) $
-6.00
Current Price
$
156.00
What's more, a handful of analysts believe SpaceX might bid to acquire a mobile carrier in the next few years to expand its internet business. Most recently, a TD Cowen analyst suggested T-Mobile would be a likely acquisition target.
While that's just speculation right now, even conservative estimates for Starlink's global total addressable market (TAM) are large. Morningstar estimates Starlink already has a $129 billion TAM. And some analysts estimate Starlink's U.S.-based subscribers will reach 15 million by 2030 -- up from just 3 million currently.
The Starship rockets reach mass efficiency Last but not least, SpaceX's rocket business is expected to expand significantly in the coming years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that SpaceX's core rocket launches could bring in $8.3 billion in revenue by 2030 -- up from $4.1 billion in 2025.
More importantly, SpaceX's Starship rockets are expected to reach an operational efficiency over the next few years that could be unmatched by SpaceX's competitors. If it lowers its marginal cost of launching payloads into orbit by 90%, which it's expected to do with future Starship launches compared to its Falcon rockets, it could achieve a competitive moat that other rocket companies would have a very hard time overcoming.
There's still a lot of uncertainty with SpaceX, and even if the company executes on its goals, there's no guarantee of success in the coming years. Investors are likely better off waiting to see how SpaceX delivers on some of its ambitions over the next year or so before considering buying the stock.
If SpaceX shares close above that level— 30% above the company’s $135 IPO price—on five of the 10 trading days leading up to earnings, an overlooked provision in the company’s IPO lock-up agreement will kick in, unlocking 456 million additional shares just two days after the first scheduled insider share release.
It’s a little-known clause that could quietly make SpaceX’s first major lock-up expiration significantly larger than many investors expect.
Most investors are already watching Aug. 5, when approximately 912 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible non-affiliate holdings, become eligible for sale on the second trading day after SpaceX reports second-quarter results.
But that’s only the first wave.
The IPO prospectus includes a performance-based provision allowing another 456 million shares—or an additional 10% of eligible holdings—to be released on Aug. 7 if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price on five of the 10 trading days preceding the first earnings release.
In other words, strong stock performance—not weak performance—could accelerate the amount of stock eligible to enter the market.
Why It MattersLock-up expirations don’t automatically result in insider selling. Employees, executives and early investors can choose to continue holding their shares, particularly if they remain confident in the company’s long-term prospects.
But traders closely monitor lock-up events because they increase the supply of shares that can be sold, sometimes creating additional volatility around earnings or other major catalysts.
The conditional Aug. 7 release makes SpaceX’s lock-up schedule particularly unusual. Rather than tying insider liquidity to the passage of time alone, the company linked part of the release to the stock’s own performance—a mechanism that rewards strength by allowing more shares to become eligible for trading sooner.
Beyond August, SpaceX’s lock-up schedule remains staggered through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, including a 1.3 billion-share release following third-quarter earnings. Elon Musk‘s 6.4 billion shares remain subject to a separate one-year lock-up that is not eligible for early release.
What Investors Should WatchSpaceX’s first earnings report is already shaping up to be one of the company’s biggest post-IPO events. But the results may not be the only catalyst.
If the stock can hold above roughly $175.50 often enough before earnings, investors could see more than 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale within just two trading days—912 million on Aug. 5 and another 456 million on Aug. 7. That doesn’t guarantee a wave of insider selling, but it does make one little-known IPO clause worth watching just as closely as the earnings report itself.
Image via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX), doing business as SpaceX, were last seen down 0.5% at $161.13. Over its last few weeks as a publicly traded stock, SPCX opened at $150, hit a June 16 peak of $225.64, and tumbled to a June 23 low of $147.11.
The stock is becoming increasingly popular amongst options traders, landing on Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks sporting the most active options over the past two weeks. This marks our first coverage of SpaceX since it made its way onto the list, with the stock seeing over 5.4 million calls and more than 3.9 million puts exchanged during this time frame. The most activity during the past 10 days were at the weekly 6/26 150-strike put and weekly 6/26 160-strike call.
Analysts are split on SPCX, with five carrying a "strong buy" rating, five a "hold," and one "sell." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $239.25 is a 48.1% premium to current levels.
$2.13 trillion. That is what public markets say SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is worth as of this morning, a valuation the company reached less than a month after its June IPO and just ahead of confirmed entry into the Nasdaq-100.
Shares of space stocks are selling off across the board midday Monday, with the group’s leaders giving back a chunk of last week’s sharp gains. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is leading the pullback, down 7% to $93.28.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are down 5% to $80.61, while SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is off 3% to $157.43. Meanwhile, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) shares are also 3% lower at $18.93.
There’s no confirmed stock-specific catalyst behind today’s selloff. The move looks like broad profit-taking after a torrid stretch for the sector, and it lands squarely on the highest-beta names.
Profit-Taking After a Blistering Week Rocket Lab stock had climbed 25% in the week ending July 2, and AST SpaceMobile shares had surged 30% over the same stretch. When names run that hot, a reset is normal, especially without a fresh headline to justify holding through the volatility.
Reddit chatter reflects the mood shift. Retail engagement on Rocket Lab cooled sharply after a WallStreetBets post titled “RKLB 2900->29k” celebrated gains on July 2, a classic exit signal. Polymarket’s daily direction market currently prices a 95% probability that Rocket Lab stock closes down today.
These are largely pre-profit, speculative names with no meaningful trailing earnings multiples to anchor valuation. Their prices trade on backlog, sentiment, and news flow, which cuts both ways.
The Long-Term Space Story Is Still Intact The bull case has not changed. The commercial-space backlog recently crossed $500 billion, and SpaceX’s NASDAQ debut on June 29 gave public investors direct access to the sector’s dominant player.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Rocket Lab didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Government demand is the other pillar. The U.S. FY2027 space budget totals $59.7 billion and funds 31 launches, a step-change from prior years. Rocket Lab’s $2.2 billion backlog and Intuitive Machines’ 2026 revenue guide of $900 million to $1 billion both lean on that spending trajectory.
AST SpaceMobile has reaffirmed $150 million to $200 million in 2026 revenue and is targeting roughly 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end. Execution on constellation cadence remains the swing factor for the AST SpaceMobile story.
UFO Offers Diversified Sector Exposure For readers who want space exposure without single-name risk, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is a pure revenue-weighted vehicle for space stocks. Top holdings include Planet Labs at 6% as well as Rocket Lab at 5%.
The fund’s diversified basket smooths some of the single-stock volatility, but the ETF and its constituents remain high-beta plays. Position sizing in space names should stay modest given the group’s tendency to swing sharply in both directions.
What to Watch The key near-term question is whether today’s losses hold into the close. Polymarket’s week-of-July-6 market clusters at $88 to $92 for Rocket Lab stock, suggesting the crowd expects stabilization rather than a deeper flush.
Traders can watch for updates on Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket debut, AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird launch cadence, and NASA CLPS award decisions for Intuitive Machines. A single volatile session doesn’t change the long-term thesis, but it’s a fresh reminder that space stocks remain high-volatility positions.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Rocket Lab didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SpaceX bulls are proving a devout lot, not unlike the Tesla traders that came before them.
Daily options flows still lean heavily bullish almost a month into trading and one day ahead of the stock's accelerated inclusion into the Nasdaq 100, the index behind the roughly $500-billion Invesco QQQ fund, of which Elon Musk's new giant will garner a roughly 1% weighting.
About half-a-million SpaceX options traded by midday Monday, a little below the average since inception, but still enough to be the fifth-most popular stock for options trading. More than 300,000 calls traded, compared to less than 130,000 puts, with almost five times as many calls bought versus puts, according to ThinkOrSwim data. Tesla, Musk's other trillion-dollar company, is consistently among the most active stocks for options traders.
Nasdaq's inclusion of SpaceX will in theory make the tech-heavy index marginally more volatile overnight given SpaceX's wild swings, but the Nasdaq's rules limit the weight of low float stocks, so the impact will likely be minimal. How SpaceX releases shares around its lockup timeline, how passive index buyers handle its inclusion, and overall demand for options, will determine if SpaceX stays as wild as it did when it came out to market.
SpaceX
SpaceX trades with an implied volatility of 92, almost 3.5 times that of QQQ, which itself is currently the most volatile in comparison to the S&P 500 in almost 20 years. Arguably that would mean over the long term, SpaceX volatility should come down, as long-term-minded investors buy and hold index funds and their constituents.
The counterpoint is that those index-holders may use SpaceX options to hedge its inclusion, which would keep demand elevated for puts. SpaceX's volatility also makes call-selling attractive as an income source, which would increase options volume. Add in the fact that high volatility has been a key characteristic of many of the bull market's biggest winners, keeping calls in strong demand despite expensive premiums, and there's a case to be made SpaceX volatility could stay – even if the stock keeps rallying.
Shares slipped to below $160 on Monday following a bounce Thursday, but a 8% sell-off last Wednesday.
All of the top 10 options contracts by volume Monday were calls. The most popular was the 450-strike call expiring July 17, a 15-cent trade contract that needs a 180% rally by the end of next week to break even. Bigger traders favored the 180-strike call expiring Friday.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.06%), also known as SpaceX, had the biggest initial public offering (IPO) ever last month, raising more than $86 billion. But the company is worth $2.1 trillion today, which means only 4% of the stock is currently trading on the market.
Let's check out what that means, why it's soon going to change, and how much SpaceX stock will be on the market before the year is up.
Image source: Getty Images.
Insiders and outsiders Any stock's total value includes shares available for trading on the open market as well as shares held by company insiders. When people talk about someone's "net worth," much of it is often tied up in company stock. SpaceX founder Elon Musk, for example, has a net worth of just under $1 trillion right now. That fluctuates depending on the price of SpaceX stock, since he owns a lot of it and, with class B shares, has more than 80% voting rights. Under the company's lockup rules, he can't sell any stock for 366 days after the IPO, so even if he does sell, it won't be until next June.
The remaining stock after the 4% on the market and Musk's shares is locked up with SpaceX insiders, and there's a staggered lockup period before they can sell their stock.
The first period ends the day after the second-quarter earnings release, which is likely to be sometime at the end of July or early August for the period ended June 30. Up to 20% of shares can be sold at that point, or 911 million shares. Another unusual rule is that if the stock is trading at a 30% premium to the IPO for five out of 10 trading days after the release, 458 million shares can be sold.
After that, there are various lockup periods from the 70th day post-IPO through the 366th day, and by December, about 180 days in, most of the lockup shares can be sold. What's left are Musk's shares and those of other insiders, who are subject to an "extended lockup."
The total insider shares that can be sold by day 180 are about 4.7 billion, which, at today's prices, accounts for about 36% of the total company value.
The purpose of any lockup period is to stabilize the stock after its IPO. The reason, presumably, for the staggered lockup periods here is the high volatility associated with the massive IPO and valuation. If it went from 4% to 40% in a day, it could wreak havoc on the market.
Today's Change
(
-0.06
%) $
-0.09
Current Price
$
161.91
The 36% of shares eligible for sale by day 180 won't all be sold, so it's unlikely to zoom from 4% to 40% in six months. However, the increase in shares could still send the price down as the law of supply and demand still holds true.
In any IPO, it's prudent to wait until after the lockup period to invest, and with SpaceX, it might be even more important.
AI bubble fears keep resurfacing, and depending on who you ask, the story is either just getting started or already cracking at the edges. Doug Casey, founder of International Man and a self-described technophile who has invested across more than 50 years and 155 countries, falls firmly in the second camp. He thinks the AI trade isn't just a bubble. He thinks it's a historic mania, and he's putting his money in three places most investors aren't looking: energy, mining, and farm commodities.
Casey doesn't dispute that artificial intelligence will reshape the world. What he disputes is whether the companies building it out right now have any real path to earning money from it. That's the tension running through his entire pitch.
Get Ecopetrol alerts:
A Super Bubble, Not Just a BubbleCasey's read on the market is blunt. He believes today's AI spending could eventually be compared to historical manias like the Mississippi Bubble or the South Sea Bubble, and possibly dwarf the 1929 stock market crash. Margin debt has surged roughly 50% over the past year, by his estimate, and he sees retail investors pouring money into companies with little revenue and no earnings.
He uses SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX as his case study. Casey's concern—that most of the capital Elon Musk has raised is flowing into data centers and AI rather than the core rocket business—is now playing out in public markets. SpaceX completed its IPO in June and carries a market cap above $2 trillion, even as it posts steep GAAP losses tied to its AI and infrastructure buildout.
His broader point: a company can be technologically dazzling and still be a poor investment if the price already assumes a future that hasn't arrived.
That skepticism extends to the picks-and-shovels trade as well. Memory chips, cooling systems, and power suppliers feeding the data center boom do generate real earnings today. But Casey calls the whole setup a daisy chain. If the data center buildout gets recognized as a massive misallocation of capital, he expects the suppliers to get pulled down with it.
Why Energy Still Looks CheapThe first place he'd put money has nothing to do with AI: Old-fashioned energy—and not just oil and gas. He's also positioned in uranium and coal, which he considers the unglamorous fuel sources that will keep the lights on regardless of what happens to the AI trade.
Energy stocks made up about 20% of the S&P 500 back in 1980. Today, that figure has shrunk to roughly 4%, even as oil and gas remain just as critical to the global economy. With West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $70 a barrel, Casey sees a sector the market has simply stopped paying attention to.
Ecopetrol Today
EC
Ecopetrol
$14.59 -0.11 (-0.75%)
As of 12:37 PM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$8.27▼
$17.75Dividend Yield4.46%
P/E Ratio11.40
Price Target$13.14
He's looking outside the U.S. for the best entry points. He favors Ecopetrol NYSE: EC, Colombia's national oil company, and Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras NYSE: PBR, Brazil's equivalent, both of which offer high single-digit dividend yields.
He also likes Meren Energy TSE: MER, a smaller offshore African oil producer with a roughly $1 billion market cap and a similar payout, plus unexplored concessions he believes give it real upside beyond current oil prices. For investors wary of emerging-market exposure, he notes Alberta, Canada, is home to small oil and gas names yielding 5% to 7%.
On power, Casey is unambiguous. Nuclear, in his view, is the safest, cheapest, and cleanest form of mass power generation, and coal works in the near term as well. His core argument: even if the AI trade collapses, the demand for electricity that AI created isn't going away.
Nuclear stocks were the hottest trade in the market as recently as late 2024. The fact that nearly every name in the sector has since sold off is precisely what makes the entry point interesting to him.
The Case for Small-Cap Gold MinersMining is an industry he calls a terrible business, but one he's owned stocks in for most of his investing life. With gold trading near $4,000 an ounce, he isn't buying the metal itself as a speculation. What he sees as undervalued are the companies that mine it.
The math is what excites him. Industry-wide, the all-in sustaining cost of producing an ounce of gold runs around $1,700. With gold prices roughly double that figure, miners are generating real margin for the first time in years, yet mining stocks represent only about 2% of the S&P 500. Casey expects that gap to close and sees potential for tenfold returns across the sector, with some smaller names capable of going much further.
These are mostly nanocap companies, often run by founding entrepreneurs, and they're prone to volatility, fraud, and outright failure—Casey references Mark Twain's famous line about a gold mine being a hole in the ground with a liar at the entrance.
He won't name specific stocks publicly, given how thinly traded they are. What he will share is his screening framework: a set of nine criteria he calls the Nine Ps, covering factors like management track record, geological quality, access to capital, and jurisdictional stability. His point is that volatility and risk aren't the same thing, and at current prices, he believes the odds tilt toward investors who do their homework.
Corn, Soybeans, and a Fertilizer ShortageThe third area doesn't involve stocks at all. Agricultural commodities—specifically corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice—supply roughly 60% of the calories consumed worldwide, and right now, prices for all of them are sitting at or below breakeven for farmers. A cyclical commodity bull market, in his view, is setting up from those depressed levels.
Teucrium Corn Fund Today
CORN
Teucrium Corn Fund
$17.35 +0.49 (+2.91%)
As of 12:36 PM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$16.36▼
$19.13Dividend Yield0.00%
Assets Under Management$173.43 million
A looming fertilizer shortage adds urgency to his case. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have cut off significant flows of sulfur and urea, both byproducts of natural gas and critical inputs for crop production.
He expects food prices to rise over the next several years regardless of what happens to AI stocks.
For most investors, he recommends commodity ETFs over futures contracts. He specifically points to the Teucrium Corn Fund NYSEARCA: CORN, noting that similar vehicles exist for wheat and soybeans.
The reasoning circles back to his opening: dollars are losing value, bonds carry interest rate, credit, and currency risk all at once, and tech stocks are priced for a future that may not arrive on schedule. Raw materials, in his view, are where safety and upside happen to overlap right now.
The Contrarian CaseThe AI story isn't going away—Casey freely acknowledges that. But he'd argue that's different from saying the stocks are worth owning at any price. Keep an eye on energy dividends and grain prices. Those are the signals he's watching.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Ecopetrol Right Now?Before you consider Ecopetrol, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Ecopetrol wasn't on the list.
While Ecopetrol currently has a Reduce rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
View The Five Stocks Here
The AI wave will soon hit public markets with Anthropic and OpenAI set to go public later this year. However, you don't have to wait to invest. This report shows seven AI stocks that you can buy today while the big model providers get ready to go public.
