Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is up 5% to $140 midday Wednesday, and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) shares are up 3% to $17 ahead of tomorrow’s earnings release. Two separate, company-specific catalysts are driving the moves while the rest of the space complex trades quietly.

SPCX stock is rebounding after a 5% drop Tuesday, so today looks more like a snapback than a breakout. LUNR shares extend a run that has carried the stock into a Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for before market open Thursday.

Both stocks are moving on discrete catalysts, and peers across the space complex are little changed. That divergence is what makes today’s action worth watching for investors already positioned in either name.

SpaceX Rebounds on Starlink Launch and AI Bull Case SpaceX launched 24 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Tuesday night, extending a constellation that ended Q2 2026 with 12 million subscribers. The fresh cadence reinforces the connectivity growth story that underpinned last week’s earnings report, which showed revenue of $7.81 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling year over year (YoY).

The larger driver may be a Morgan Stanley note from analyst Adam Jones carrying a $300 price target. Jones argues investors are underestimating SpaceX’s AI business, including the pending $60 billion acquisition of coding platform Cursor and neocloud data-center leasing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google.

Morgan Stanley sees Cursor’s annual revenue run rate climbing from $4 billion in June toward $33 billion by 2030. That framing recasts SPCX stock from a launch-and-satellite story into an AI infrastructure play, which helps explain the sharp reversal off Tuesday’s weakness.

The Polymarket odds line up with the price action. The August 12 up/down market for SPCX is pricing an 89% probability of a green day, and the $145 target level shows 75.5% conviction in the August 20, 2026 market.

Intuitive Machines Climbs Ahead of Earnings Intuitive Machines reports its Q2 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, August 13, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus estimate calls for a loss of $0.07 per share on $219 million in revenue. Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $39.70, though Zacks flags a Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of -12.9%, suggesting the model is not calling for a beat.

The recent run-up in LUNR shares traces to two catalysts. L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX) selected Intuitive Machines for the Space Development Agency’s AMDT3 mission, disclosed August 4, and the company announced acquisitions of Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT on August 3.

Intuitive Machines closed Q1 2026 with a record $1.1 billion backlog, giving investors a visible pipeline heading into tomorrow’s report. Options positioning is skewed constructive, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.36 across LUNR contracts.

Space Complex Otherwise Quiet SpaceX’s peers are little changed today, which reinforces that SPCX and LUNR shares are trading on their own news rather than a sector wave. Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) stock is down 1% to $3.25, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are up 2% to $72.91.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is essentially flat despite last week’s Q2 revenue beat and Iridium deal narrative, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are up 2% to $24.15. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is close to flat, a reminder that this narrow thematic fund carries meaningful sector-concentration risk given its focused holdings roster.

What to Watch Intuitive Machines reports tomorrow morning. Investors can watch for backlog updates, integration progress on the Lanteris and Goonhilly deals, and any commentary tightening the $900 million to $1 billion full-year revenue guidance. Historically, Intuitive Machines’ earnings days have averaged a +7% day-of move followed by a -7% one-week fade, so sustainability matters more than the initial reaction.

For SpaceX, the near-term test is whether today’s gains hold and whether the Morgan Stanley thesis draws follow-on analyst moves. A moderate position size makes sense in both names given SPCX’s post-IPO volatility and LUNR’s pre-earnings drift risk.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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SummarySpaceX is rapidly transforming from a rocket and connectivity company into a high-growth AI compute provider, but the market appears to be in disbelief.AI revenues reached $2.6B in Q2, up 247% YoY, and are projected to become SPCX's dominant revenue stream by Q3, signaling a fast-growing hockey stick inflection.SPCX could achieve 10 GW compute capacity by the end of 2027 and potentially generate in excess of $300B in AI revenue run rate by the end of FY2027.Current SPCX valuation at ~10x FY2030 EPS offers significant growth optionality, with profitability and Starlink's strong margins providing downside support.The market is clearly discounting SpaceX's ability to transform its business into an AI-first growth lever, and I think that's an opportunity for investors to double down.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Ultimate Growth Investing get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) investors lately got a respite after the stock suffered a mauling just two weeks ago.

Fears concerning the broad selling pressure into the lock-up expiry had already sent

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I may initiate a SpaceX position within the next 72 hours.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Posted by Defense World Staff on Aug 12th, 2026

Bay Colony Advisory Group Inc d b a Bay Colony Advisors bought a new position in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) during the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund bought 4,201 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $718,000.

Several other hedge funds also recently modified their holdings of SPCX. Atwood & Palmer Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter valued at $29,000. Burkett Financial Services LLC acquired a new position in SpaceX during the second quarter worth about $70,000. Contravisory Investment Management Inc. bought a new stake in SpaceX in the second quarter worth about $73,000. Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. bought a new stake in SpaceX in the second quarter worth about $89,000. Finally, Beaird Harris Wealth Management LLC acquired a new stake in SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at about $120,000.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades SPCX has been the topic of several recent research reports. Clear Str raised shares of SpaceX to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Tuesday, July 7th. KeyCorp restated a “sector weight” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 28th. Barclays upgraded SpaceX from an “underweight” rating to an “overweight” rating in a research report on Monday, June 22nd. The Goldman Sachs Group started coverage on SpaceX in a research note on Tuesday, July 7th. They set a “buy” rating and a $205.00 price objective for the company. Finally, Piper Sandler cut their target price on SpaceX from $156.00 to $140.00 and set a “neutral” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, August 5th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-five have assigned a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and five have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $229.00.

View Our Latest Stock Analysis on SPCX

SpaceX Stock Performance Shares of NASDAQ:SPCX opened at $133.29 on Wednesday. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $143.01. SpaceX has a 52 week low of $104.83 and a 52 week high of $225.64. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, a current ratio of 5.12 and a quick ratio of 4.99.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The firm had revenue of $7.81 billion for the quarter. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, analysts expect that SpaceX will post -0.15 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Key Stories Impacting SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley maintained a $300 price target and outlined a $600 bull case if investors gain confidence in SpaceX’s AI strategy, including the planned Cursor acquisition and Grok-related opportunities. The valuation depends on substantial future AI revenue, making the target highly assumption-driven. Morgan Stanley $600 SpaceX price target Positive Sentiment: SpaceX reportedly secured approximately $8.1 billion in U.S. Space Force awards, including satellite-building, military data-network, and Falcon 9 launch contracts. The awards strengthen revenue visibility and expand the company’s defense footprint. SpaceX Space Force awards Positive Sentiment: A new 2027 launch agreement with Vietnam’s VinSpace adds an international customer and supports continued demand for SpaceX’s launch services. Vietnam launch contract Neutral Sentiment: Reported short interest was zero shares, suggesting the latest pullback was not driven by a large disclosed short position. The figure may reflect incomplete or unreliable data rather than an absence of bearish positioning. Negative Sentiment: Shares pulled back after rallying above the $135 IPO price, with coverage citing profit-taking, a broader risk-off market, and investor focus on a Falcon 9 launch. A launch scrub and the operational risks surrounding Starship add near-term volatility. Why SpaceX stock is pulling back Negative Sentiment: Investors remain concerned that SpaceX’s ambitious AI and infrastructure initiatives require heavy capital spending. Recent earnings showed revenue growth of 91.9% to $7.81 billion, but the company still reported a quarterly loss, while valuation screens suggest the stock already prices in significant future success. Retail investors also became net sellers for the first time since the IPO. SpaceX valuation and Morgan Stanley bull case SpaceX Company Profile (Free Report)

SpaceX, or Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is an American aerospace company focused on the design, manufacture and launch of advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company develops launch vehicles and space systems used for commercial, government and scientific missions, with a strong emphasis on lowering the cost of access to space through reusable rocket technology.

Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX has built a broad portfolio of products and services that includes the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starship development program.

See Also Five stocks we like better than SpaceX Atlassian Just Pulled Off the Software Comeback Wall Street Wanted AST SpaceMobile Earnings Just Reminded Investors How Risky Space Can Be NVIDIA’s Rally Sets Up a Bigger Test Ahead of Earnings Apple’s Next iPhone Could Test How Much Pricing Power Is Left

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It launched 24 Starlink satellites to low-Earth-orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Tuesday night.

Elon Musk said SpaceX employees would "effectively be the parents of the AI." Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty Images SpaceX is joining the new AI gold rush: employee data.

In a company all-hands, Elon Musk told staff that SpaceX plans to train its Grok AI on the company's data, including contributions from staff. This type of data has become a valuable commodity for tech companies training AI agents to use computers and perform real-world tasks.

"We're going to be training Grok on the sum total of all SpaceX information," Musk told employees in a video of the all-hands posted on X on Tuesday.

"So in a way, it will be trained on you," he added.

The world's richest man reiterated concerns he has been expressing for years about the risks of superintelligent AI that is not aligned with humanity's goals.

Musk suggested that training it on data from SpaceX employees — who he described as "a collection of some of the very best humans on Earth" — could imbue future models with what he considers desirable values.

"You will effectively be the parents of the AI. It will inherit your thoughts and ideas and beliefs, and I think that's a good thing," the SpaceX CEO said.

It is not clear what employee data SpaceX is planning to use to train its AI models, or how. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

Musk previously raised the prospect of training Grok on SpaceX data in the company's recent earnings call, and the rocket maker is not the only Big Tech giant eyeing employee data in the quest to improve AI models.

Having exhausted most of the readily available training data on the internet, AI companies are increasingly turning to data from employees and other sources, such as factory and sensor data, to improve their models' ability to navigate real-world tasks.

Meta launched a new initiative in April to collect employee keystrokes and mouse movements as training data to improve the company's AI models.

The plan sparked intense backlash from staff and was paused in June after private employee conversations and performance data were made available across the entire company, Business Insider exclusively reported.

Grok Bot SpaceX, which absorbed Musk's AI startup xAI months before going public in a record-breaking IPO, is attempting to catch up in the AI race. Grok has lagged behind cutting-edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic on some major benchmarks.

SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor is expected to close in the coming months. On Tuesday, SpaceX launched Grok Bot, an AI agent that is designed to perform tasks on a computer.

The company says Grok Bots can sign into apps and websites, draft emails, write code, and perform a wide range of other tasks autonomously. Training AI models to perform these kinds of agentic tasks often requires specially curated computer use data.

In the all-hands, Musk encouraged all SpaceX employees to use the company's AI and "make it better." The billionaire said that SpaceX's mission to dominate AI on Earth and in space would ultimately lead to soaring profits, a golden age of civilization, and teased holidays on the moon for employees.

"Anyone at SpaceX who wants to go to the moon or Mars will be able to go in the future. You have my word," Musk said.

Do you work at SpaceX and have thoughts about the company using employee data to train its AI models? Get in touch with this reporter at tcarter.41 on Signal or [email protected]. Use a personal email address and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely.

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Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -3.93%) could climb to $600, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas. This “bull case” would value the company at a whopping $8 trillion, making it the largest in the world.

Jonas originally initiated coverage on July 7 with an overweight rating and a price target of $300. He reaffirmed the rating on Tuesday.

Here’s how he thinks that could happen and what the rest of Wall Street thinks about SpaceX stock.

Today's Change

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What has to go right for SpaceX to hit $600To get there, a whole lot has to go right. First, SpaceX has to successfully deploy AI data centers in orbit at scale -- and cheap. The model assumes Starship, the company’s fully reusable heavy rocket currently in development, is flying often enough and efficiently enough that the company can cut the cost of deploying AI computing capacity to half the current rate.

Also, critically, Starlink needs to expand well beyond home internet -- and humans. The bull case includes the assumption that hundreds of millions, if not billions, of AI-powered robots will be subscribed to by 2040 at an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $35.

What the rest of Wall Street thinks about SpaceX stockWall Street has generally been pretty bullish on SpaceX stock since the IPO. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, the average price target sits around $227. The high is $800. Still, there are certainly bears, too. You can see a sampling of Wall Street in the table below:

AnalystFirmRatingPrice TargetBrian GesualeRaymond JamesBuy$800Adam JonasMorgan StanleyBuy$300Doug AnmuthJ.P. MorganBuy$240Edison YuDeutsche BankBuy$235Ken GawrelskiWells FargoBuy$215Eric SheridanGoldman SachsBuy$220John HodulikUBSBuy$210John GodynCitiBuy$200Alexander PotterPiper SandlerHold$140Keith Snyder, CFACFRASell$115Glenn ThumPhillip SecuritiesSell$75Morningstar offers a much more skeptical viewMorningstar was one of the first to initiate coverage and has been pretty bearish from the jump.

They see the core launch and Starlink businesses worth only about $40 per share, and everything above that depends on the AI/data-center story. Morningstar’s "Moonshot" scenario, which would get you to $154 per share, gets just a 7% probability from their analysis.

That’s quite a departure from Morgan Stanley. Though I should note that Jonas and Morgan Stanley also offer a bear case that sees SpaceX stock trading at just $75, though it’s clear from the base case that this is far below what they expect.

Can SpaceX stock really reach $600?So, can the stock really go to $600? I don’t think so.

There’s obviously a lot to like about SpaceX, and it is working to develop pretty amazing technologies, but the gulf between where the company is and the Morgan Stanley bull case is incredibly wide.

The road from $133 to $600 runs mostly through things that do not exist yet and assumes the best possible outcomes for the things that do. It also assumes the lion’s share of SpaceX’s value comes from its AI division, despite that division currently being the weak link. Jonas himself wrote on July 24 that a $100 share price would imply the market was assigning no value at all to SpaceX's AI business. That implies most of the value he sees lies in the AI business.

And with SpaceXAI bleeding cash at an alarming rate, racing to build compute capacity for customers that can exit their leases penalty-free with just 90 days’ notice, I see a very risky bet on a very uncertain future.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are pulling back further Tuesday, extending Monday’s slide, as a broader risk-off tape and a Falcon 9 launch weigh on the stock.

SpaceX stock is showing notable weakness. What’s weighing on SPCX shares? SpaceX Falcon 9 Launches 29 Starlink Satellites TuesdaySpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket carrying 29 Starlink broadband satellites from Cape Canaveral at 11:58 a.m. Tuesday, Reuters reported. The launch had been scheduled for Monday morning but was scrubbed and rescheduled for Tuesday.

SpaceX Underperforms Weakest Sector on the MarketCommunication Services is the worst-performing sector Tuesday out of 11 sectors, and SpaceX is lagging even within that group. The sector has struggled recently, falling 0.26% over the past 30 days and 4.68% over the past 90 days.

Market breadth is tilted negative Tuesday, with an advance/decline ratio of 0.8 and only five of 11 sectors advancing. Utilities are up 1.15% and Energy is up 1.06%, reflecting a rotation into defensive sectors. That backdrop is making it easier for sellers to push down stocks that have led the market or are priced for high growth, including SpaceX.

SpaceX shares traded above their $135 IPO price earlier Tuesday before falling back below that level as the session progressed, according to Benzinga Pro.

SpaceX Insider Unlock Failed to Trigger Expected Sell-OffMore than 911.5 million insider-held shares became eligible for trading last Thursday, more than doubling SpaceX’s publicly available float overnight. The anticipated wave of selling never came. Instead, the stock gained nearly 3% on the day the shares became eligible, suggesting much of the lockup anxiety had already been priced in during the pullback that preceded the unlock. Shares then rallied sharply the following day, a rally that Tuesday’s decline is now unwinding.

Individual investors sold a net $4.5 million in SpaceX shares last Friday, the first negative reading since the company began trading June 12, according to Vanda Research data reported by Reuters.

A Look Back at SpaceX’s Second-Quarter EarningsSpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion last week, up 92% year over year and above the $6.93 billion consensus estimate.

SpaceX posted a per-share loss of 9 cents, better than the 24-cent consensus loss estimate. Starlink subscribers reached 12 million across 167 countries, and the company ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash and cash equivalents along with a $47.5 billion backlog.

SPCX Shares Are FallingSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 4.79% at $132.10 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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SpaceX stock SPCX fell sharply on Tuesday after a three-day rally pushed the stock back above its $135 initial public offering price.

The stock fell around 5% to $131.94 in afternoon trading.

Despite Tuesday's decline, the stock remained about 18% higher over the previous five sessions.

The pullback follows a sharp rebound that had taken SpaceX shares back above their IPO price.

Investors had been closely watching the first lock-up expiration last week, when a large block of restricted shares became eligible for trading. The expected wave of selling did not materialize.

SpaceX shares have fallen substantially from their June 16 record close of $201.80.

The stock had lost more than 30% from that level ahead of the first lock-up expiration before rebounding.

With the initial share release passing without the heavy selling some investors had anticipated, attention is now shifting to the next scheduled unlock on August 20.

That event is expected to release another 7% tranche of restricted employee and pre-IPO shares, representing roughly 320 million shares.

The additional supply seems to be prompting some investors to reduce risk after the recent rally, while short-term traders may also be locking in gains after SpaceX moved back above its IPO price.

SpaceX's recent rebound was also supported by its first earnings report as a public company.

The rocket and AI company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, above the $6.93 billion expected by analysts.

Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said during the earnings call that SpaceX is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year.

Deutsche Bank analysts said Monday that the target is "likely very achievable."

The analysts said SpaceX's second-quarter run rate was about $31 billion, but expect the company to reach its $100 billion target primarily through contributions from its neocloud business and its acquisition of AI coding company Cursor.

Citi analysts also raised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts after incorporating the sources of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings beat.

The analysts reiterated their Buy rating while maintaining a $200 price target.

Morgan Stanley sees significant potential for SpaceX's artificial intelligence business to increase the company's value.

"As investors see more breadcrumbs on the Cursor/Grok story, we see potential for the implied valuation discount on SpaceX’s AI business to lift, driving potentially substantial appreciation of the stock," analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a report to clients.

He added that few investors currently appear bullish on SpaceX's AI business beyond its neocloud operations, creating what he described as an upside-skewed catalyst path at current levels.

Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX shares.

SpaceX agreed to acquire Cursor for $60 billion in stock shortly after its June IPO.

The transaction is intended to strengthen the company's AI business following its merger with xAI earlier this year.

Morgan Stanley said more than 60% of Fortune 500 companies and 50,000 enterprises use Cursor's coding tool.

© 24/7 Wall St. / Getty Images

Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are down 5% midday Tuesday to $131.78, unwinding much of last Friday’s Argus-driven pop. There’s no fresh company-specific catalyst behind today’s slide. The price drop reads as sentiment reversing after Friday’s pop.

The rest of the space complex is quiet and mixed. Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) stock is up 1%, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 3%, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is up 2%. Meanwhile, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) are trading in a similarly muted range. Furthermore, the Procure Space ETF (NYSEARCA:UFO) is flat. Since the UFO ETF isn’t moving much, this points to an SPCX-specific issue rather than a broader sector selloff.

Today’s action in SpaceX stock continues the longer-term downtrend that was interrupted by Friday’s space-stock rally. Even with that rally, cautious traders noted a bear-case trigger: any sign that the newly unlocked post-IPO float was being distributed into strength could cap the rally. Today’s tape fits that script.

Argus Bounce Fades as Post-IPO Overhang Returns Argus upgraded SPCX stock to Buy from Hold on Friday with a $160 target, citing early payback on the company’s heavy AI-infrastructure spending. That drove an 11% Friday rally after a week of selling tied to the June 2026 IPO share-lockup expiration. Today’s pullback reverses a chunk of that gain with no follow-through news.

The Q2 2026 report on Aug 4 set the stage. SpaceX posted revenue of $7.81 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion, with AI segment revenue up 247% year over year (YoY). Capital expenditures hit $18.37 billion for the quarter, including $15.83 billion tied to AI compute. That capital intensity is the crux of the bear case.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk has outlined a plan to reach roughly 15 to 20 gigawatts of AI power and computing capacity and to begin launching orbital data centers. The ambition is real, and so is the cash burn required to get there. The newly unlocked post-IPO float only adds to the supply overhang while investors digest that spend.

Reddit chatter over the weekend captured the split. WallStreetBets sentiment swung between very-bullish scores of 82 and neutrality as threads debated a 911.5 million share unlock. That indecision helps explain why Friday’s SPCX stock bounce didn’t stick into Tuesday.

Peers Quiet, ETF Confirms Isolated Move The peer tape confirms that this is a single-name story. The UFO ETF trading flat against SPCX stock’s decline is the cleanest tell. Small, mixed moves across the space complex point to no shared catalyst.

The prediction markets are pricing continued near-term weakness. Polymarket assigns a 92.5% probability of a down close today for SpaceX stock, though the same platform still has $130 as the modal weekly target at 71.5% and $140 as the modal August close at 69%. It appears, then, that the crowd is pricing in a dip.

The options tape leans slightly cautious near-term. SPCX’s full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.87, with the Aug 21 expiration at 1.07 and Aug 28 at 1.59. Thus, traders are evidently paying up for short-dated downside protection.

What To Watch Investors can watch for whether SPCX stock holds the $130 area, which lines up with the crowd’s modal weekly target. A clean break below could re-accelerate the post-IPO downtrend that Friday’s Argus note briefly interrupted.

The next scheduled catalyst is the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition expected to close in Q3 2026. Peer earnings reports from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile on Aug 10 have already cleared, so the space complex has little else on the calendar until then. The analyst consensus on SPCX stock still targets $233, well above where prediction market participants see shares landing this month.

Meanwhile, the UFO ETF offers thematic space exposure, but it’s a concentrated, unleveraged thematic fund, so sector-concentration risk is real. Given SPCX’s post-IPO volatility, moderate position sizing on the primary name could make sense here. The relief rally is giving back, and the overhangs that drove the pre-Argus selloff haven’t gone away.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) went public in June 2026 and has been the talk of the town ever since. Its first earnings report as a public company on August 4, 2026 should have set the mood. Revenue jumped 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, the AI segment revenue skyrocketed by 247%, and Starlink subscribers doubled year-over-year to 12.0 million. Instead, the conversation shifted immediately to Friday, August 6, when a 911.5 million share lockup expiration was poised to flood the market with insider stock.

The Crash That Never Came The pre-unlock coverage was widely grim. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens argued SpaceX was “significantly overvalued” and “trading at twice its fair value,” maintaining a $62 fair value estimate. Yahoo Finance UK ran the math on peak buyers, noting an investor who put £10,000 into SpaceX at its $225 peak on June 16th would now have approximately £5,100. On Reddit, the most-upvoted post heading into Friday was titled ominously: “SpaceX will plummet on 8/6.” It drew 743 upvotes and captured a sentiment score of 22, the most bearish reading of the week.

Shares actually opened the week at $114.53 on August 3. By August 10, they closed at $138.74, a 21.14% weekly gain. The dominant post on r/wallstreetbets suddenly became “How did SPCX maintain its share price today despite adding 900,000,000 more shares?”

The Semi Analysis Thesis That Flipped Sentiment The bullish catalyst was a widely circulated Semi Analysis research note arguing Elon Musk’s gigawatt commentary on the earnings call was credible. The firm wrote that Musk “conservatively” aims to build and deliver an incremental 6-8GW in 2027 alone, with potential for that number to be well above +10GW. At 50B per GW, that’s $300-500B in capex in 2027, on par with what we expect from AWS and Google.”

Its conclusion: “We see SpaceX on track to build about 10GW by year-end 2027,” implying a path to $300B of ARR by the end of 2027. Semi Analysis models a Q4 2027 exit rate of $305 billion in ARR, with $235 billion from renting compute, $26 billion from AI applications, $37 billion from Starlink, and $7 billion from space launches. On the high side of the spectrum, Wall Street currently projects revenue of $148.69 billion in 2027.

Which Fundamentals Are Backing the Rally? The Q2 numbers gave the bull case oxygen. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.54 billion, up 191% year over year, EPS loss of -$0.09 beat the -$0.2893 consensus, and cash sits near $93.52 billion. Capex hit $18.37 billion in the quarter, fueled by $15.83 billion aimed at AI compute, and the pending $60 billion coding startup Cursor acquisition is slated to close in Q3. SpaceX now carries a market cap near $1.76 trillion. Whether Semi Analysis is right about 10GW will likely decide if the post-unlock rally holds. For now, the crash narrative has been sidelined.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways SpaceX's 53% post-IPO drawdown is within historical norms.The company is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI hardware and Starlink.Elon Musk projects that SpaceX will reach $1 trillion in revenue by the end of the decade. The Average IPO Corrects Roughly 50%Earlier this year, Space Exploration Technologies ((SPCX - Free Report) ) became the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history with a valuation near $2 trillion. Despite SpaceX’s size, its near-monopoly in its industry, and being one of the most hyped IPOs ever, shares fell from a high of $225.78 to a low of $105.62. History teaches investors that such corrections are the norm. In fact, within one year of its debut, the average tech IPO sees a drawdown of 55% from its peak. SpaceX just witnessed a 53% drawdown.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Whether it was due to psychology or mispricing, the correction in SpaceX shares is no surprise to seasoned investors. In fact, long-term market winners like Meta Platforms ((META - Free Report) ), Palantir ((PLTR - Free Report) ), and Snowflake ((SNOW - Free Report) ) all suffered 50% drawdowns early on before beginning their uptrends.

SpaceX Earnings & Guidance ImpressLast week, SpaceX delivered earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. Revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion while net losses narrowed to $143 million versus $541 million. EPS of -$0.09 beat Zacks Consensus Estimates by a juicy 65.38%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s guidance was even more intriguing. Musk now expects SpaceX to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 with a “non-zero” chance of reaching it in 2029. Additionally, Musk expects annual recurring revenue (ARR) to explode to $100 billion by year-end (up from a $10.4 billion run rate in June).

xAI Segment is on FireAlthough SpaceX is known for being a space company, its fastest-growing business segment is AI hardware. Top-line growth is being driven by lucrative contracts from AI giants Alphabet ((GOOGL - Free Report) ) and Anthropic. Compute revenue reached $2.6 billion (+247% YoY). Meanwhile, in the earnings call, management projected that SpaceX is now targeting 10 gigawatts (GW) of compute for 2027. Currently, SpaceX has ~1GW of compute.

Image Source: SemiAnalysis

Starlink is Disrupting the Telecom SpaceStarlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, is also experiencing rapid growth. Connectivity revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 66% year-over-year, while subscribers doubled year-over-year to 12 million. On the earnings call, Musk highlighted the company’s V3 satellite, saying:

“Starlink V3 satellite is about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2…even if our monetization per bit dropped by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.”

Meanwhile, Starlink is expanding beyond remote home broadband to higher average revenue per user (ARPU) businesses like enterprise, aviation, maritime, and defense. Also, Starlink will be unveiling a direct-to-cell mobile connectivity service to take on legacy telecom companies like AT&T ((T - Free Report) ) and T-Mobile ((TMUS - Free Report) ).

Starship is a Massive Catalyst Starship is SpaceX’s game-changing rocket, currently in testing, and the largest flying manmade object. In July, Starship’s 13th test flight achieved several monumental firsts including:

·       Heatshield Success: Starship’s heat shield survived atmospheric reentry entirely intact for the first time.

·       Satellite Deployment: Starship successfully deployed 20 next-gen Starlink V3 satellites in orbit.

·       Reusability: The Super Heavy booster achieved a controlled descent (although it had a hard splashdown), getting the Starship one step closer to reusability.

Starship will have its next test soon. Once Starship is up and running it will be able to deliver up to 300 metric tons to space (~5x more than its Falcon 9 rocket).

CAPEX NormalizationLike many big tech companies, SpaceX’s capital expenditures soared. CAPEX grew more than 600% to $18.37 billion. However, as the hyper-aggressive CAPEX cycle (driven by AI buildouts and Starship R&D) normalizes, free cash flow generation will explode.

Bottom line

Driven by explosive growth in non-traditional segments like AI compute hardware and Starlink, SpaceX is laying the groundwork for unprecedented scale.

Posted by Defense World Staff on Aug 11th, 2026

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) shares rose 4.2% during mid-day trading on Monday after Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from a sell rating to a hold rating. The company traded as high as $139.26 and last traded at $138.74. 167,662,407 shares were traded during trading, an increase of 46% from the average session volume of 115,034,031 shares. The stock had previously closed at $133.11.

Other research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Daiwa Securities Group assumed coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research note on Thursday, July 2nd. They set a “neutral” rating and a $175.00 price objective for the company. Argus raised SpaceX from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $160.00 target price on the stock in a research note on Friday. Mizuho began coverage on SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $200.00 price target for the company. Roth Capital raised SpaceX to a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, June 22nd. Finally, Evercore initiated coverage on SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 14th. They issued an “outperform” rating and a $230.00 price objective on the stock. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-five have given a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and five have given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $227.31.

View Our Latest Research Report on SPCX

Trending Headlines about SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: The expiration of a lockup covering roughly 900 million to 911 million shares did not trigger the sharp selloff investors had feared. The stock’s resilience suggests that much of the potential insider selling had already been anticipated. Another release is expected on August 20, making future supply a key trading risk. SpaceX’s First Lockup Expired Last Week Positive Sentiment: SpaceX reported $7.81 billion of quarterly revenue, up 91.9% year over year, and a loss of $0.09 per share that was narrower than analysts expected. The strong top-line growth is supporting the bullish view that Starlink and the company’s launch business can become major long-term growth engines. SpaceX stock rebounds to near $135 IPO price Positive Sentiment: ARK Invest bought approximately $13.2 million of SpaceX shares after the earnings-related selloff, while some analysts upgraded the stock. Support from high-profile investors is reinforcing the recovery and short-squeeze speculation. Why Cathie Wood is piling into SpaceX stock Neutral Sentiment: A planned launch using a Falcon 9 booster for its 18th flight highlights SpaceX’s reusability advantage and operational execution, but a routine launch is unlikely to materially change valuation by itself. SpaceX Will Fly the Same Falcon 9 Booster for an 18th Time Negative Sentiment: Investors remain concerned about massive capital expenditures of $18.4 billion in the quarter, with AI-related spending representing most of the total. SpaceX continues to lose money, and its valuation already assumes successful execution of ambitious AI, Starlink, and orbital data-center plans. Elon Musk’s SpaceX Just Delivered Its First Earnings Report Negative Sentiment: Retail investors became net sellers for the first time since the IPO, and skeptics describe SpaceX as highly speculative. Potential future insider selling and the company’s continued cash burn could limit the recovery. Retail investors sold SpaceX shares for first time Institutional Trading of SpaceX A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Atwood & Palmer Inc. acquired a new position in SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at $29,000. Marquette Asset Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter valued at $32,000. Burkett Financial Services LLC purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter valued at $70,000. Contravisory Investment Management Inc. acquired a new position in SpaceX in the second quarter valued at $73,000. Finally, Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. purchased a new position in SpaceX during the second quarter worth about $89,000.

SpaceX Stock Performance The business has a 50-day moving average price of $143.24. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, a current ratio of 5.12 and a quick ratio of 4.99.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The business had revenue of $7.81 billion during the quarter. SpaceX’s revenue was up 91.9% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts predict that SpaceX will post -0.11 EPS for the current fiscal year.

About SpaceX (Get Free Report)

SpaceX, or Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is an American aerospace company focused on the design, manufacture and launch of advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company develops launch vehicles and space systems used for commercial, government and scientific missions, with a strong emphasis on lowering the cost of access to space through reusable rocket technology.

Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX has built a broad portfolio of products and services that includes the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starship development program.

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SpaceX (SPCX), the launch, satellite-connectivity and AI-infrastructure powerhouse, shot as high as $139.50 Monday before gravity returned. By 10:12 a.m. ET, th

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +4.23%) went public on June 12 in one of the highest-profile debuts ever. That's due in large part to the record-setting numbers: The company raised $85.7 billion, making it the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history by a country mile.

Shares rocketed up in the days that followed, but things haven't been so rosy since. The stock closed its IPO day at $160.95. It's now down more than 17% to roughly $133 as of Aug 8.

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That's a rocky two months. But many investors see it as a major opportunity -- a chance to snag shares at a steep discount. So, is this the time to buy in? What might $10,000 invested today turn into in five years?

SpaceX by the numbers: What the financials actually show Let's start with what the company actually looks like today. In the second quarter, SpaceX brought in $7.8 billion in revenue -- up 92% year over year -- while narrowing its operating loss to just $143 million. Its net loss came in at $541 million.

Most of the good news, financially speaking, still comes from one source: Starlink. The company's Connectivity segment did $4.3 billion in revenue -- up 66% year over year -- and brought in a healthy operating profit of $1.65 billion, up 79%.

Of course, that's a bit rosier view than reality. When SpaceX launches its own Starlink satellites, the rocket business doesn't book any revenue for the launch. Instead, the launch costs are capitalized within the Connectivity segment and depreciated over time.

That makes the Space segment look considerably worse on paper. It brought in just $962 million in revenue during the quarter and posted a $542 million operating loss. These numbers would look much better if it were charging Starlink at market rate -- of course, that means Starlink wouldn't look quite like the financial unicorn many people see it as.

The AI segment, on the other hand, is still bleeding money -- a lot -- though the picture has improved thanks to new compute contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet. Revenue more than tripled year over year to $2.56 billion, while its operating loss narrowed to roughly $1.26 billion. But that is because it is spending at an eye-watering rate: $15.8 billion on AI capital expenditures in Q2 alone.

The bull case for buying SpaceX stock The bull case really rests on Starlink, which is growing incredibly fast and operates with fantastic margins. If management can continue to scale up the service globally and meaningfully disrupt the telecom market, it would be a huge moneymaker.

Image source: Getty Images.

On the launch side, SpaceX is likely to continue to dominate. If it manages to make the business profitable and opens up new revenue streams beyond the current opportunities, then once again, the upside is quite large. This is very much contingent on the success of its Starship program, the company's massive, reusable rocket currently in development.

SpaceXAI is certainly more of a crapshoot, but if the company manages to catch up to the competition in model quality and makes major inroads with enterprise customers, there is certainly a big revenue opportunity, though profitability remains an unknown.

The risks investors need to consider On the flip side, a whole bunch of "ifs" are baked into the SpaceX narrative. The company's own S-1 document says that much of its plans depends on "unproven technologies or technologies that do not exist," and that timelines for things like orbital AI computing and manufacturing on the moon "may be difficult or impossible to determine."

The fact is, xAI is well behind on model quality and market penetration against competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic. And while providing computing capacity to competitors can stem the tide and provide some financial breathing room, it's hardly a business worth a meaningful part of its $1.75 trillion price tag (the company's current market capitalization).

Three scenarios lead to very different outcomes Here is how I see a reasonable bull, bear, and base case for SpaceX and what that would mean for a $10,000 investment.

Bull Starlink keeps growing rapidly while Starship dramatically lowers launch costs and opens new markets, and the AI business proves that its massive capital spending can produce equally massive revenue.

Base Starlink remains the company's financial engine. Subscriber growth slows somewhat, but revenue and profits continue to climb. The AI business keeps growing rapidly and gradually approaches operational profitability, but massive spending on data centers continues. Starship continues progressing, but full commercialization is still just around the corner.

Bear Starlink's growth slows as the easiest subscriber additions are exhausted, while SpaceXAI's spending balloons without generating enough profit to justify it. At the same time, Starship development remains expensive and behind schedule.

ScenarioMarket CapImplied Share Price$10,000 BecomesAnnualized 5-Year Return (Loss)Bear$750 billion$57$4,300(15.6%)Base$1.25 trillion$95$7,100(6.5%)Bull$3 trillion$228$17,10011.3% Is SpaceX stock a buy right now? My take is that we end up somewhere closer to the bear case. Even after its 17% fall, I still think SpaceX is overvalued. So, to answer the question at hand, no, I don't think it's a buy.

In a July interview with CNBC, former Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett warned that investors are increasingly turning into gamblers. "It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling," he said. He added, "But since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in, in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors."

The type of behavior the Oracle of Omaha is talking about, like making excessively risky "bets" in hopes of achieving massive one-time windfalls, can be found across the stock market. But it can be especially abundant with initial public offerings (IPOs). And with a few potential big-name companies, like Anthropic and OpenAI, potentially going public over the next year, some may get lured into a gambling mindset.

Image source: Getty Images.

The allure of IPO investing IPOs offer excitement, as they create the first opportunity for most retail investors to directly own shares of a company that has been private for years or even decades. With that excitement, however, the fear of missing out starts to creep in for some, leading many investors to buy shares of a company they don't understand. They may then expect that one trade, like going all in at a poker table, could bring them instant wealth, which is what turns people from investors into gamblers.

Instead of experiencing a quick windfall, however, IPOs are known for volatile price swings that could quickly turn an investment into paper losses. Just look at Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.13%). When SpaceX began trading to the public on June 12, it closed at $160.95 per share. By June 16, shares shot up all the way to $225.64, but it has been a sharp reversal since then; SpaceX opened at $107.08 on Aug. 6.

For anyone who bought in when it was trading at $225.64, from that Aug. 6 opening price of $107.08, the stock price was down 52.5%. That sell-off may be overdone over the long term. But during that downward price swing, a lot of people who were just hoping for a quick gain may have instead sold their SpaceX stock at a loss.

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Building wealth over time Two of the biggest companies in terms of the attention they could generate if they go public over the next year are artificial intelligence (AI) competitors Anthropic and OpenAI. Ultimately, investing in those companies could make their shareholders money, with the global AI market expected to grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.

That said, just as with SpaceX, anyone thinking of becoming a shareholder will have to be prepared for price swings and willing to hold the stock through volatile periods to reap any rewards. Treating investing in those stocks like a short-term gambling move, meanwhile, could lead to fast losses.

As Buffett said in his 1996 letter to shareholders, "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes."

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.13%) executed a flawless IPO. At least that's the way things began. The company's underwriters rapidly sold all available stock, triggering "greenshoe" options that ultimately netted SpaceX $85.7 billion in proceeds. Shares quickly skyrocketed well above $200 despite an initial IPO price of $135. And SpaceX took advantage of the enthusiasm by executing a scaled-up $25 billion bond offering.

Since shares reached an all-time high of $225.64 on June 15, with a peak valuation of around $3 trillion, SpaceX stock has fallen off a cliff. Shares are currently 34% lower than that peak, leaving many investors underwater.

Still, SpaceX is now armed with capital, especially considering its $60 billion acquisition of AI tooling start-up Cursor was paid for in stock, not cash. Regardless of where the stock price goes from here, expect SpaceX to go on a spending spree.

How might SpaceX deploy its new cash hoard? We can glean clues from Elon Musk's "secret master plan" that he executed with Tesla (TSLA +0.25%) many years ago.

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SpaceX investors should read Elon Musk's secret master plan for Tesla On Aug. 2, 2006, Musk published a simple post on Tesla's website with no graphics. The title of the post was "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)." In this document, Musk outlined his plan to turn Tesla into a global giant. Over the next two decades, things went surprisingly according to plan, even if Tesla's growth journey took longer than Musk initially anticipated.

What exactly did Musk's secret growth playbook consist of?

"As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high-performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long-term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars," Musk began.

At the end of the post, Musk summarized the key elements of his growth vision. First, Tesla would build a sports car. Next, it would use the funds, reputation, and infrastructure gained from that effort to build an affordable car. With even greater funds and scale, Tesla would then build an even more affordable car. While doing all of this, Tesla would also pursue zero-emission electric power generation options. "Don't tell anyone," Musk cheekily signed off.

Image source: Getty Images.

Tesla's master plan -- which ultimately resulted in a $1 trillion global auto giant -- paints Musk as a surprisingly practical CEO despite his often rosy and outlandish predictions. Translating this vision to SpaceX isn't difficult.

In SpaceX's IPO prospectus, a host of wild growth opportunities are outlined, everything from establishing a permanent human colony on the moon to exploring the solar system. I believe Musk is serious about these endeavors. But given his history with Tesla, I expect SpaceX's growth journey to be much more predictable.

SpaceX's Starlink internet division is already profitable. Expect SpaceX to aggressively scale this business to generate a sustainable capital base for more ambitious opportunities. The company's rocket division is also likely profitable if you remove the heavy investment into next-gen rockets. And while SpaceX's AI division is currently unprofitable, this, too, stems mostly from the pace at which SpaceX is attempting to expand its data center infrastructure. Long-term, analysts are very bullish on this segment's revenue and profit potential.

In short, don't expect much near-term traction on SpaceX's most aggressive growth opportunities. This category includes everything from lunar-based robotics manufacturing to building a self-sustaining city on Mars with at least millions of inhabitants. For years to come, I suspect SpaceX will focus on the opportunities right in front of it, much like Musk handled Tesla's growth journey. Tesla eventually reached, or even surpassed, Musk's initial vision. But it took decades to do so. I expect the same for SpaceX.

There was a lot of anticipation around Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -0.13%), the rocket company better known as SpaceX, and what would happen last week as lockups began expiring for this recently listed stock, which could have potentially resulted in a massive wave of shares being sold. Many investors were bracing for a sell-off.

So why didn't it happen?

Image source: Getty Images.

Why SpaceX stock didn't plummet after Aug. 6 Aug. 6 was the date of SpaceX's first lockup expiration, enabling 911.5 million of insider shares to be available for sale. There are a couple of things to consider here, however, that may explain why SpaceX's stock didn't simply fall over a cliff last week.

The first is that while 911.5 million more shares might be available for sale doesn't mean insiders are all going to unload them right away, or even anytime soon. Given the stock's free fall in recent weeks, many who may have wanted to sell the space stock may have been unwilling to do so, given the recent decline. SpaceX has, after all, already proven to be a volatile stock. While it has been crashing, it also has the potential to rise quickly in value, as it did in its early trading days. Insiders may be waiting for a better price. Others may be in it for the long haul and not in a rush to sell at all.

Secondly, many investors may have already been anticipating Aug. 6 as the day to buy the stock in anticipation of the lockup expiring. The stock was already in free fall in recent weeks, and many investors may have expected Aug. 6 to be the bottom given the added selling pressure of more shares becoming available. Thus, even if there were insiders selling that day, there may have been far more buyers. And indeed, trading volume topped 255 million on Aug. 6 -- the highest they've been since mid-June, shortly after SpaceX stock went public.

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Does this mean SpaceX stock is destined to rally higher now? SpaceX stock may not have crashed last week, but that doesn't mean it's out of the woods, and more insiders won't sell the stock in the future. If there's one thing the stock has shown since going public nearly two months ago, it's how volatile it can be.

Its valuation is based highly on speculation and future expectations rather than its financials, as the business remains deeply unprofitable. And any investor who wants to buy SpaceX stock today needs to consider the risks of doing so, as this is likely to remain a highly volatile investment for the foreseeable future.

Shares of Elon Musk's SpaceX whipsawed on Monday, as the stock traded near its $135 IPO price.

The shares briefly hit the benchmark in early trading on Monday, marking a rebound from rocky post-IPO trading that has seen the stock swing up and down and close as low as $108.27 just days ago.

Last week, the rocket maker reported better-than-expected revenue in its first earnings report since the company made its historic debut on the Nasdaq in June. SpaceX said it generated $7.81 billion in revenue during its second quarter, up from the $6.93 billion expected by analysts.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen also said on the earnings call that the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year, which analysts at Deutsche Bank said Monday is "likely very achievable."

The analysts said that although SpaceX's second-quarter run-rate was just $31 billion, they expect the $100 billion target will be driven mainly by contributions from the company's neocloud business and its acquisition of the artificial intelligence coding company Cursor.

Read more CNBC tech newsHugging Face hack marks start of dangerous AI cyber era and many firms 'don't even know it'How a small Israeli startup was linked to rogue AI hacks at OpenAI, Anthropic and MetaWorld's biggest chipmaker TSMC's sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demandMeta to open source its most powerful AI model as it takes swipe at OpenAI, AnthropicSpaceX also faced a major test last week after its first stock lockup period expired on Thursday, turning more than 911 million shares into liquid stock for early investors. That batch represents more than the 639 million shares that were sold in the company's IPO, and some analysts warned that it could cause more near-term volatility.

Ahead of SpaceX's earnings and the share unlocks, notional short interest in SpaceX surpassed Musk's automaker Tesla, one of Wall Street's favorite targets for short sellers.

But following the company's second-quarter report, many analysts remain bullish.

Citi analysts said Sunday that they revised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts higher "as a result of rolling forward sources of the 2Q26 beat." The analysts reiterated the company as a buy.

"Given the dependency of out-year forecasts/valuation on successful Starship milestones, we leave our PT unchanged at $200 and plan to adjust our target ratably toward the $900+ long term valuation level we outlined in our initiation as major milestones are hit," they wrote in a Sunday note.

Analysts at Wolfe Research said that while SpaceX showed "big beats" during the second quarter, investors should still exercise some caution.

"There was a lot to like in SpaceX's first earnings report but as always we would advise not misunderstanding aspirations of mgmt from most likely outcomes," the analysts wrote Sunday.

SpaceX stock chart.

watch now

Russia is rolling out its own version of the Starlink satellite internet system faster than expected and plans to have nearly ​300 satellites in orbit by 2027, according to a Ukrainian intelligence ‌official.

Key Takeaways SpaceX shares jumped 26% last week despite heavy AI spending concerns. Retail investors remain bullish on SpaceX's long-term AI growth prospects. ETFs offer diversified exposure to SpaceX while reducing company-specific risks. SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) closed a key week in the green, with shares climbing about 26%, after the company reported its first earnings as a public company and completed the largest share unlock in its brief trading history (read: SpaceX Stock Loved by Retail Investors: ETFs in Focus).

The two events created back-to-back tests for the stock, either of which could have triggered a sharp selloff. While the stock fell after reporting earnings, the insider share-lockup expiration has boosted the stock. SpaceX stock surged 15.8% on Friday, marking its strongest daily gain, and finished at its highest level since July 15, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Earnings Beat Fails To Impress InitiallySpaceX's eventful week began with its second-quarter results on Tuesday. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, but the strong results initially failed to reassure investors concerned about soaring AI spending.

The company’s AI capital expenditures jumped to $15.8 billion in the quarter from $7.7 billion in the first quarter. SpaceX shares subsequently plunged 13.6% on Wednesday, marking a new all-time closing low (read: SpaceX Beats Q2 Estimates, Shares Fall: ETFs in Focus).

Biggest Share Unlock Tests Investor ConfidenceThe next major test came Thursday, when 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading for the first time. That represented about 43% more shares than the 638.9 million shares offered in the company's June IPO.

The unlock more than doubled SpaceX’s public float, increasing the freely tradable portion of shares outstanding to 11.8% from 4.9%. With the stock already trading below its IPO price, investors had expected the additional supply to create further selling pressure.

But SpaceX shares rose 6.1% on Thursday, defying expectations that the influx of new shares would weigh on the stock.

Staggered Unlock Structure Limits Immediate PressureSpaceX's share-unlock structure is unusual because the company is not releasing all locked shares at once. Instead, the expiration is staggered across nine tranches over several months. Thursday's tranche was the first and largest.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said much of the selling pressure may have already been reflected in the stock price, as investors had anticipated the unlock, as quoted on the same Yahoo Finance source.

Retail Enthusiasm Cools But Holds FirmSpaceX surged from its $135 IPO price to an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16. Since then, the stock has fallen significantly. The stock closed last week at $133.11.

Retail demand has also moderated since the IPO, but investors have remained net buyers. Retail investors purchased about $405 million worth of SpaceX shares during the first five trading sessions, compared with $103 million over the five sessions leading up to the company's earnings report.

AI Story Drives Long-Term OptimismVanda Research believes retail investors are looking beyond SpaceX's near-term financial results and focusing instead on its long-term AI ambitions, as mentioned on Yahoo Finance.

SpaceX is prioritizing long-term growth over near-term cash flow. Despite several risks, CEO Elon Musk projects that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a year earlier than its pre-IPO forecast.

Although the enormous investment raised concerns about the cost of SpaceX's expansion, retail investors appeared to view the spending as an investment in future growth. Notably, SpaceX's AI business posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion in Q2, narrower than analysts' estimate of $2.39 billion.

Revenues from the AI segment came in at $2.56 billion, better than the $2.18 billion expected, according to StreetAccount, as quoted on CNBC.

Upbeat Estimate RevisionsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for a loss of 23 cents per share in 2026 (which was revised up from a loss of 53 cents a week ago), followed by EPS of $1.45 in 2027 (which was raised from 65 cents over the past week).

Three of nine analysts have raised the company's earnings estimate for the ongoing quarter over the past week. Six analysts have raised the earnings estimate for the full fiscal year 2026, and five analysts have raised their estimates for the next fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues calls for $42.96 billion in 2026 (up 130% year over year), followed by $98.63 billion in 2027 (up 129.6%).

Any Wall of Worry?Despite the strong weekly performance, SpaceX still faces eight additional share-unlock tranches over the coming months. The first and largest hurdle has now passed, but the stock's ability to sustain its recovery will depend on whether the company can continue delivering strong financial results while absorbing the additional share supply.

ETFs in FocusInvestors who have faith in SpaceX’s fundamentals but are in two minds due to the upcoming share-unlock events may tap SpaceX stock through a basket of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The ETF approach minimizes company-specific concentration risks.

Baron First Principles ETF (RONB - Free Report) , Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) , VanEck Space ETF (WARP - Free Report) , VanEck Space ETF (ORBX - Free Report) , VegaShares SpaceX & Beyond Earth ETF (XSPC - Free Report) and WisdomTree Space Economy Fund (WSPC - Free Report) are ETFs that invest in SpaceX to a significant extent.

Investors should note that heavy AI spending is common among major AI companies, as seen in Big Tech’s massive investments. Hence, concerns over SPCX’s high AI spending are unlikely to weigh on the stock for long.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are set to open above their initial public offering price of $135 per share on Monday, as the stock climbed 4.31% to $139.05 in premarket trading.

Monday’s gains followed a 15.83% bump on Friday, per Benzinga Pro data.

SPCX stock is climbing. See the chart and price action here. Gary Black Flags SpaceX’s Sharp SwingsSpaceX’s recent moves have drawn attention from investors like Gary Black, who said he remains cautious about the stock’s volatility. On Friday, Black said SpaceX shares surged to $200 before dropping 45% in 60 days.

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He argued the swings support his cautious approach, even as other investors stay bullish. Black said a single-day surge does not counter his thesis and urged careful analysis over speculative claims. Black’s comments come as investors debate the stock’s true valuation.

Adam Jonas Pitches a Bigger Upside CaseMorgan Stanley’s latest note lays out the bull case.

On Thursday, analyst Adam Jonas called SpaceX a "potential generational compounder" and said the stock could nearly triple by mid-2027.

He tied that view to SpaceX’s AI, launch, and satellite-connectivity assets, adding that SpaceX avoided the selloff some expected around a $101 billion lockup expiration.

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The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy v3 Booster lift off on its 13th test flight from the SpaceX launch complex in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 24, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesSpaceX shares have closed below $135 IPO price since July 16Retail investors sold net $4.5 mln of SpaceX shares on August 7SpaceX trending on retail trader forums like StocktwitsAug 10 (Reuters) - Retail investors who ​spent weeks defending SpaceX through its post-IPO run turned net sellers on Friday, marking the ‌first such instance since the company's blockbuster debut in June.

Mom-and-pop traders sold a net $4.5 million in Elon Musk's rocket company (SPCX.O), opens new tab on August 7, the first net negative reading since the company went public on June 12, according to Vanda ​Research data.

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"A shift from persistent net buying to selling is rarely about one catalyst, it ​is usually a mix of profit-taking, position fatigue and investors reassessing the risk-reward," ⁠said Sam North, market analyst at etoro.

"Friday is particularly interesting because retail turned net sellers while ​the shares were rebounding strongly and trading back around the IPO price. That looks more like investors using ​strength to take some money off the table than panic selling."

By comparison, the highest single-day net buying in SpaceX's trading history reached $144.6 million on June 16, suggesting the outflow remains modest by the stock's own standards.

This comes just days ​after individual investors "bought the dip" as shares slumped 13.6% on August 5, when retail net-buying was ​the fourth-highest since the company's June debut.

Shares had dropped as investors reacted to SpaceX's first-ever quarterly earnings report as a ‌public ⁠company, in which it touted faster returns from AI spending, but concerns remained about how long its profitable Starlink business would bankroll costly AI investments.

The reversal in sentiment tracks a broader unwind in SpaceX's share price. The stock surged as much as 67% above its $135 IPO price in June before giving back ​all of the gains and ​falling more than ⁠22% below its debut price in August.

Shares have closed below the IPO price every day since July 16 and were up 2.4% to $136.3 in premarket trading ​on Monday.

Small investors have been crucial in the company's history on the ​public markets, as ⁠at least 30% of shares that were made available on debut were set aside for retail buyers.

SpaceX was the sixth most trending ticker on retail investor focused forum Stocktwits on Monday morning. In the last ⁠one week, ​SpaceX was the second most mentioned ticker on Reddit forum ​r/WallStreetBets, as per sentiment aggregator SwaggyStocks.

Liquidity conditions have also shifted as the number of SpaceX shares available for public trading more than doubled ​following the expiry of the first of several lockup restrictions last week.

Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

SpaceX reported high revenue growth in the second quarter. The company still lost money.

The public debut of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +15.83%) in early June marked one of the most ambitious market entries in history. While SpaceX stock surged during its opening sessions, shares have retreated sharply over the last month -- trading well below the post-IPO peak.

SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company offers a clear window into whether the pullback has created an attractive entry point or whether further proof is still required.

Image source: Getty Images.

How were SpaceX's earnings? SpaceX's second-quarter numbers show a business accelerating across all three core segments while still incurring significant investment costs. Total revenue surged 92% year over year to $7.8 billion. The space segment generated $962 million, a 29% increase from the prior-year period. However, operating losses widened to $542 million compared to negative $369 million a year earlier.

Connectivity, driven by the Starlink broadband network, remained SpaceX's largest and most profitable engine. Revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 66% year over year. Meanwhile, operating income expanded 79% to $1.6 billion, underscoring improving scale as the subscriber base doubled to 12 million. Average revenue per user (ARPU) held steady at $66, while new enterprise and government contracts provided additional lift to the segment's consumer base.

The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure division delivered the most dramatic growth for SpaceX. Revenue soared 247% year over year to $2.6 billion, with the bulk coming from cloud and compute services as well as additional subscriptions to Grok and X. Operating losses stood at $1.3 billion, a modest improvement from the prior quarter, though still substantial.

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What should investors watch next? Perceptions of SpaceX will hinge on two interlocking variables: the scale and efficiency of capital expenditure (capex) and the trajectory of AI-driven revenue. Capex during the second quarter was dominated by the AI segment at nearly $16 billion, far exceeding the combined outlays across launch and connectivity.

Investors will demand evidence that this spending translates into durable utilization rates and expanding profit margins, rather than an open-ended infrastructure build. In the upcoming quarters, SpaceX will need to show whether AI revenue can sustain its current trajectory as new cloud agreements ramp up and as additional capacity comes online. Equally important will be any deceleration in connectivity growth or further narrowing of losses in the launch segment, both of which will determine how quickly overall profitability can emerge.

History offers a cautionary tale for what typically follows mega-IPO stocks. Over the past several decades, the median first-year maximum drawdown has run between 42% and 55%, with median 12-month returns often negative relative to the broader market. The five largest IPOs by capital raised delivered one-year returns ranging from single-digit gains to declines of 37%. Notably, most of the stocks in this cohort compounded strongly in the years ahead.

Staggered lockup releases usually coincide with elevated selling pressure and add an extra layer of volatility in the months that follow early earnings reports. Unless SpaceX posts sustained outsize growth that repeatedly exceeds expectations, the combination of ongoing share supply and the historical post-IPO digestion period points toward further choppiness and the risk of additional downside over the next year.

Is SpaceX stock a buy right now? While SpaceX's connectivity business is already profitable and growing solidly, and the launch franchise retains competitive advantages over peers in the space exploration industry, the AI contribution remains in its early stages.

SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 73, a frothy multiple relative to current run rate revenue. Even after the post-IPO correction, the company's $1.4 trillion market cap clearly embeds lofty assumptions about the AI segment's ability to scale as big tech accelerates infrastructure spend.

Until successive earnings reports illustrate that capital intensity is moderating and that AI revenue is converting into sustainable operating leverage, the stock is at risk of continuing to price in a best-case scenario. Smart investors should exercise caution rather than aggressively buying the dip right now. In my view, SpaceX still has several meaningful milestones to prove before the valuation can be fully justified.

Jim Cramer is a former hedge fund manager who has built a reputation for dissecting balance sheets with theatrical flair and delivering rapid-fire opinions about stocks. As the face of CNBC's Mad Money, Cramer's talent is translating complex market dynamics into accessible, high-energy commentary. With that said, his style can sometimes feel more like entertainment than disciplined analysis.

Still, investors pay enough attention to Jim Cramer that his commentary can move sentiment. This week, shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +15.83%) took a sharp tumble after the company reported earnings. Following this move, Cramer offered a strikingly patient take, framing the SpaceX dip as far more interesting than a routine sell-off.

Image source: Getty Images.

Cramer thinks SpaceX is a multidecade holding With SpaceX stock under pressure from elevated capital expenditures (capex) and the release of locked-up shares on Aug. 6, Cramer urged his audience to stop measuring the company in quarterly increments and start thinking in terms of decades.

He pointed to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's ambitions, including the placement of data centers in orbit that will have the ability to draw power directly from the sun and potentially sidestep terrestrial constraints. In Cramer's view, these orbital facilities represent an infrastructure plan whose true payoff will not arrive for years -- or even generations.

He compared the scale of SpaceX's build-out to the railroad construction boom over a century ago, when enormous capital outlays were poured into tracks and locomotives long before the network became usable at scale. Cramer's message is clear: SpaceX's current volatility is the cost of laying the foundation for an opportunity that could endure far longer than any single investor's career.

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Comparing SpaceX to railroads makes sense I am neither a physicist nor an engineer, so I have no technical basis for judging whether Musk's orbital data center vision can overcome the hurdles of radiation, latency, or the maintenance logistics required to operate a business in space. To me, the idea feels equal parts awe-inspiring and cartoonish.

Nevertheless, I think Cramer's comparison to railroads lands with surprising force. Space exploration, satellite constellations, AI development, and railroads all demand vast sums of upfront capital -- laying steel rails across continents or launching hardware into orbit. Moreover, all of these endeavors face years of cash burn before the network is dense enough to attract steady customers.

But once the underlying infrastructure exists and adoption rates accelerate, the economics start to shift. As traffic begins to flow and incremental costs drop, the business can become self-sustaining in ways that skeptics doubted. Cramer's parallel does not prove that orbital compute will succeed. However, he does a nice job illustrating why patient capital has historically been rewarded when transformative ideas finally mature.

If you buy SpaceX stock, be prepared to hold it The most interesting part of Cramer's remarks about SpaceX was his framing of the stock as the modern-day equivalent of a 100-year railroad bond. While day trading can certainly generate profits from time to time, the deeper, quieter form of wealth creation has always come from compounding.

"Maybe you put some away for the next generation," he told Mad Money viewers.

Buying SpaceX stock steadily over the course of decades -- provided your conviction remains intact -- allows time and reinvestment to do the heavy lifting for you. With this in mind, setting aside an allocation of your potential SpaceX position specifically for children or grandchildren can turn a single stock into a multigenerational asset -- one that outlives market cycles, management changes, and the original investor's own working life.

Against this backdrop, Cramer's opinion serves as a pointed reminder that the proper posture toward investing in any transformative company is not chasing momentum, but rather employing disciplined accumulation over a long-term time horizon. Whether SpaceX ultimately justifies this patience is still uncertain, but the principle Cramer emphasizes is timeless: The greatest returns often belong to those who are willing to wait the longest.