Wedbush zahájil pokrytí SpaceX s doporučením outperform a cílovou cenou 190 USD, tedy asi 16 % nad úterním závěrem. Firma podle něj není jen raketová společnost, ale hyperscaler se třemi byznysy: Starlink, Starship a AI segment.
Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
SpaceX by mohla zhruba do měsíce uskutečnit 13. test Starshipu, což by podpořilo její snahu zlepšit ekonomiku kosmického podnikání. Firma ale zůstává ve ztrátě a ARPU Starlinku klesá.
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +4.06%) recent IPO was a massive success. However, serious questions remain about the company's outlook and its eventual ability to turn a profit. Much of that will depend on SpaceX's biggest growth driver, Starlink, which provides internet connectivity services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. But SpaceX could also make progress in its space segment, leading to much better margins and profits. And a potential milestone it could reach within 15 days will tell us more about whether SpaceX can meaningfully improve the economics of its space business.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's next-gen rocket SpaceX has transformed the space travel industry thanks to its pioneering work with reusable rockets. But there remains plenty of work to be done. The company's next-gen rocket, Starship, is currently in the test flight phase. Starship is central to SpaceX's long-term ambitions. Unlike the company's already highly successful Falcon 9 rocket, Starship was developed to be fully reusable. It could help decrease launch costs by 95% compared to Falcon 9. Starship is also much taller and has a much larger payload capacity.
SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, with the latest one introducing the newest version, dubbed V3, of the rocket. Right before the company's IPO about three weeks ago, SpaceX's COO, Gwynne Shotwell, said the 13th Starship flight test would take place in about a month -- which puts us at roughly mid-July at the latest. Shotwell also said she expects regular monthly flights for the rocket thereafter.
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Is SpaceX stock a buy? Another successful Starship flight test would bolster the bull case for SpaceX. However, there are reasons to remain skeptical about the company's future. Here are three of them. First, the company is not consistently profitable. In 2025, it posted a net loss of $4.9 billion, far worse than the $791 million in net income reported in 2024. Unprofitable companies can be attractive if their growth prospects look strong, which brings us to our second point: Average revenue per user (ARPU) within SpaceX's most important segment, Starlink, is declining. In the first quarter of 2026, Starlink's ARPU was $66, down from $86 in Q1 2025, and significantly lower than the $99 it recorded in 2023.
While Starlink subscribers continue to grow at a good clip, the declining ARPU may eventually lead to lower margins, especially as the company starts facing more competition and pricing pressure. One possible solution is for SpaceX to reduce the cost of launching LEO satellites. So the situation is by no means hopeless. Still, investors need to monitor Starlink's declining ARPU. Third, SpaceX might face significant regulatory headwinds over the long run, especially given that it relies on contracts from the U.S. federal government for 20% of its revenue.
So, what's the verdict? SpaceX could deliver life-changing returns if it can make significant progress with Starship and other initiatives, but the stock remains highly risky, especially at current levels. I'd wait for a major pullback before initiating a position.
SpaceX po krátkém růstu klesla na 147,55 USD za akcii, tedy pod debutní cenu 150 USD, a nyní čelí tlaku z ředění akcií i blížícího se uplynutí lock-upu. Další prodejní tlak může přijít po zveřejnění výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí a při dalších odemknutích akcií.
On Tuesday, June 23, its sixth full day of trading, the stock of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +1.36%), or SpaceX, briefly dipped to an all-time low of $147.55/share, below its debut price of $150/share. Since then, it hasn't closed above $157/share.
But is this price drop actually a buying opportunity in disguise? Here's what investors should know about SpaceX's prospects moving forward.
Image source: Getty Images.
Par for the course SpaceX's shares shot up to an intraday high of $176.52/share just after it began trading on Friday, June 12. Many observers thought that might be the high-water mark for the stock.
But SpaceX surprised everyone over the following two days as its stock price rocketed up to close at $211.39/share on Tuesday. This briefly put its market capitalization at $2.6 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth-largest company in the world. Analysts began to wonder if the classic trajectory of a hot IPO -- a brief Day 1 share price spike followed by a long, gradual decline -- didn't apply to SpaceX.
That dream was short-lived. The decline began the very next trading day, with shares eventually closing below $160/share on June 22, where they've mostly stayed since.
So, is now a good time to buy shares?
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SpaceX stock has a long road ahead of it There are two compelling reasons to stay away from SpaceX shares right now: dilution and lockup expiration.
Dilution comes from additional share issuances. SpaceX's recent agreement to acquire artificial intelligence developer Anysphere in a $60 billion all-stock deal already requires the issuance of about 400 million new shares. An additional preexisting deal for wireless spectrum will require the issuance of $11.1 billion in new shares in 2027. And various executive bonuses, stock options, settlements, and other awards totaling about $150 billion in new shares could be issued under certain conditions as well. These issuances will likely drive the share price lower.
Meanwhile, a healthy chunk of SpaceX's existing shares are currently on "lockup." Those shares will begin unlocking two trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, which is likely to occur in late July. Additional shares unlock throughout the year until the big 180-day lockup period expiration (for employees and most pre-IPO investors) on Dec. 8. Elon Musk's shares won't unlock until June 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Given widespread concerns about the company's sky-high valuation, there will be strong incentives for shareholders to sell their shares as soon as their lockups expire, which would put more near-term downward pressure on the stock.
In other words, if you want to buy and hold SpaceX shares for life, waiting at least until Dec. 9, after all those new shares have flooded the market, is likely to get you a better price than buying now. And waiting until 2027, when all shares are unlocked, and we'll have a year of quarterly numbers to help us evaluate the stock price, is probably an even smarter move.
SpaceX má 7. července vstoupit do Nasdaq-100, což má podle odhadů vyvolat asi 4,3 miliardy USD nucených nákupů ze strany pasivních fondů. Zároveň jedná s Charter Communications o backhaul pro Starlink Mobile.
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX will bypass traditional public market seasoning requirements to enter the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. This regulatory shift triggers an estimated $4.3 billion in forced institutional buying just weeks after the initial public offering. Paired with a rumored terrestrial backhaul partnership that positions Starlink Mobile to immediately challenge legacy telecom providers, SpaceX commands a near-term liquidity catalyst capable of temporarily overriding structural valuation headwinds.
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Index Gravity Squeeze: Front-Running the $4.3B Fast-TrackUsually, a newly public enterprise waits months or even years to join major market indexes. Nasdaq recently amended its eligibility framework, allowing mega-cap initial public offerings (IPO) to enter the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days. For SpaceX, a $2.10 trillion aerospace sector giant, this fast-track inclusion fundamentally alters the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics.
When a stock enters a major benchmark, passive funds tracking that index have no choice but to buy. These institutional funds do not evaluate price-to-sales ratios or profitability metrics. Their sole mandate is to replicate the index weight accurately.
SpaceX Today
$164.05 +10.82 (+7.06%)
As of 06/29/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$147.11▼
$225.64Price Target$212.67
J.P. Morgan modeling indicates that the July 7 reconstitution will require approximately $4.3 billion in mechanical passive inflows from benchmarked funds such as the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ. This incoming capital heavily compounds the estimated $3 billion SpaceX already absorbed from a recent fast-track inclusion into the Russell 1000 index.
This immense institutional buying pressure currently meets a structurally constrained supply of shares. Post-IPO lock-up agreements restrict early investors and executives from immediately liquidating their equity.
Approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale only after the first public earnings release on Aug. 6. The absence of this float severely restricts available liquidity leading into the July index event.
When billions of dollars of indiscriminate capital chase a capped share count, the resulting friction creates a highly predictable pre-inclusion price squeeze. Smart active managers often front-run these events, accumulating shares beforehand and forcing prices higher as the passive index funds scramble to secure their required allocations before the closing bell.
Ground Control to Charter CommunicationsBeyond the immediate mechanics of index arbitrage, a massive shift is occurring in how broadband and mobile data reach global consumers. Executive-level negotiations are reportedly advancing between SpaceX and Charter Communications Inc. NASDAQ: CHTR to route Starlink Mobile traffic through established terrestrial networks.
Understanding the significance of this move requires examining the massive capital expenditures required by traditional telecommunications. Legacy operators spend tens of billions of dollars laying fiber-optic cables and erecting cell towers to maintain their regional monopolies. Starlink Mobile aims to bypass much of this physical infrastructure by beaming connectivity directly from low Earth orbit to consumer devices. Space-to-ground data transmission requires foundational ground-based routing to handle heavy consumer traffic loads efficiently without severe latency.
Securing ground-based backhaul through a partner like Charter Communications allows Starlink to scale operations as a direct-to-consumer wireless provider instantly. SpaceX can challenge terrestrial network monopolies without bearing the prohibitive costs of building physical infrastructure.
This dual approach of dominating the orbital layer while piggybacking on existing terrestrial fiber rapidly accelerates the timeline for market capture against incumbent wireless carriers like Verizon NYSE: VZ and AT&T NYSE: T. The broader space infrastructure sector benefits heavily from these macro tailwinds as satellite broadband capabilities reach pricing and speed parity with legacy fiber networks, unlocking a massive new global subscriber base.
SpaceX Valuation Floats in the ExosphereAggressive physical and technological expansion requires monumental capital, and fixed-income markets are eager to fund it. SpaceX recently settled a five-tranche, $25 billion unsecured senior bond offering, stretching debt maturities out to 2056.
Institutional order books peaked near $90 billion, demonstrating robust willingness to finance heavy space-based capital expenditures. The proceeds explicitly retire a $20 billion bridge loan tied to earlier xAI infrastructure acquisitions, eliminating near-term maturity risk and securing a longer operational runway for massive satellite deployments.
Still, SpaceX’s current stock price reflects immense future expectations rather than current operational efficiency. At around $165 per share, the market capitalization sits at a towering $2.1 trillion. With annual sales of $19.3 billion, SpaceX commands a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 108. Investors are effectively paying roughly $108 for every single dollar of revenue SpaceX currently generates. Earnings data from May 7, prior to the public listing, showed a $1.27-per-share quarterly loss, contributing to an estimated $4.9 billion annual net deficit.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, June, 30, 2026
Institutional coverage is increasingly highlighting this fundamental disconnect between price action and core business metrics. Analysts at Morningstar explicitly labeled the $2 trillion valuation as stretched, assigning a much lower fair value of $780 billion. Argus Research recently initiated coverage with a cautious Hold rating.
These financial models warn of potential multiple compression once the Aug. 6 lock-up expires and restricted shares flood the open market. Bondholders are also scrutinizing the lack of current profitability, leading to slight weakness in secondary-market trading as credit spreads widen relative to risk-free Treasuries.
Brace for Re-Entry on August Lock-Up ExpirationThe immediate trajectory for SpaceX relies heavily on market mechanics rather than traditional earnings growth or deep value metrics. The $4.3 billion mandatory allocation from index trackers creates an undeniable short-term demand shock. Strategic investors often capitalize on this exact type of market structure, recognizing that forced institutional buying creates price inefficiencies that operate completely disconnected from fundamental valuation models.
Simultaneously, the broader space sector remains highly attractive as direct-to-device satellite communication transitions from a conceptual technology to a commercially viable reality. Strategic partnerships that provide terrestrial backhaul validate the Starlink business model and open up massive new addressable markets previously locked down by regional telecom providers.
Investors looking to navigate this specific environment might consider closely monitoring the daily trading volume leading up to the July 6 closing bell. The mechanics of index inclusion offer a clear, near-term liquidity catalyst for SpaceX, but cautious market participants may prefer to wait for the Aug. 6 lock-up expiration to assess how early insiders handle their newly liquid equity before committing long-term capital to the aerospace leader.
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SpaceX má tři kontrakty na AI výpočetní kapacitu, které dohromady přinášejí asi 2,32 miliardy USD měsíčně, tedy 27,8 miliardy USD ročně. To více než zdvojnásobuje jeho tržby.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%), better known as SpaceX, has three distinct parts of its business -- rocket launches, satellite internet, and the xAI artificial intelligence business. While the first two are certainly impressive, market-leading businesses, the AI division has produced the biggest headlines in recent months.
In fact, although xAI was the biggest drag on SpaceX's bottom line in 2025, it's starting to look like 2027 and beyond could be a very different story. Here's how SpaceX's new AI compute business has already more than doubled its revenue, where it could go from here, and why investors should pay attention.
Image source: Getty Images.
Three AI compute deals -- so far Here's a quick rundown of where SpaceX's AI compute business stands today. And keep in mind that all of this is revenue that didn't exist prior to its IPO:
First, Anthropic signed a deal to access more than 300 MW of compute capacity and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. This agreement brings in $1.25 billion per month for SpaceX through May 2029. That's $18 billion per year from this deal alone. Next, Google signed a compute deal that begins in October and runs through June 2029, giving the hyperscaler access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and is expected to generate $920 million in monthly revenue. Finally, the smallest of the three deals, but still a highly significant development, is a deal from fast-growing start-up Reflection AI to access Nvidia chips at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center for $150 per month. Combined, the three deals will provide about $2.32 billion in monthly revenue, or $27.8 billion annualized. Keep in mind that SpaceX's business -- including Starlink, the rocket launches, and xAI -- combined for $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. Even though Starlink and the rocket business continue to scale rapidly in 2026, this has more than doubled SpaceX's revenue.
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Not only has this generated revenue, but it's also an example of a savvy way to turn a problem (xAI was using only about 11% of its compute capacity for its own purposes) into a win.
Who could be next? SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 that it "expects to enter into additional similar services contracts for compute capacity with third parties," and while this statement was made before the most recent deals, it indicates that this business could be a big part of the company's AI future.
There's no way to know who might be next, but there's no shortage of potential compute customers. Other AI providers, such as OpenAI, are an obvious example, as are hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT 1.22%).
Of course, companies like Microsoft, Google, and others can (and do) build their own data centers -- that's a big portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures they've announced for 2026. But a capital-light approach (renting instead of owning) is likely starting to look more appealing, especially now that the AI build-out is scaling to the point where these companies are being forced to take on more debt and spend all of their free cash flow to keep up.
In addition to any of the other potential customers who will undoubtedly need more computing power in the future than they do today, it's also important to mention that there's certainly the possibility that the three existing customers could expand their deals over time. For example, Anthropic's business has grown tenfold in the past year, and if it continues to grow exponentially, the company's compute needs could get much larger.
Why is this so important? Not only have SpaceX's three AI compute deals more than doubled its revenue, but they could also be a big step forward in showing investors a path to profitability. In fact, the AI compute business has the potential to become the highest margin part of SpaceX. Consider that other GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV 1.54%) operate at gross margins near 70%, and in SpaceX's case, margins could be even higher as SpaceX's Colossus data centers were already built and were simply underutilized. Now, Starlink has excellent margins, but the AI compute business has massive potential for both top-line growth and producing billions in free cash flow.
To be clear, even with all of this in mind, SpaceX is still not a cheap stock. Even if the company's revenue run rate reaches $50 billion by the end of 2026, it will still be valued at about 40 times sales (based on the current stock price) and will lack any established track record of profitability. So, I'm not saying that SpaceX is a buy based on its AI compute business itself. There's a lot that will need to go well throughout its business to ultimately justify the current valuation.
Having said that, the progress in the AI compute business has been impressive to say the least. If SpaceX can continue to build it out, it could be a big win for the company and its investors.
SpaceX vydala dluhopisy za 25 miliard USD a poptávka byla obrovská, téměř 90 miliard USD v objednávkách. Emise ale vyvolala obavy z vysokých kapitálových výdajů a budoucího refinancování.
SpaceX's $25 billion foray into debt markets appeared to be well received by bond markets last week, with huge demand for the offering.
But one of the biggest-ever AI bond issuances, less than two weeks after SpaceX's IPO, has highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations — and posed a diversification challenge for investors.
Why SpaceX tapped debt marketsThe group tapped debt markets on June 22, announcing a senior unsecured notes offering, with sources telling CNBC that the company was looking to raise $20 billion, which was then increased to $25 billion. The company said it would use the net proceeds to "repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full, to pay related fees and expenses, and any remaining amount for general corporate purposes."
SpaceX stock soared after its hotly-anticipated IPO. Last week's debt issuance dented investor confidence.
SpaceX received nearly $90 billion worth of orders, people familiar with the fundraising previously told CNBC. They asked not to be named because the details are private.
But the move appeared to unnerve equity investors, with SpaceX falling more than 13% for the week after a strong post-IPO run.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said SpaceX will increasingly have to "work hard to make itself heard," adding there are plenty of offerings from more profitable concerns that can steal the limelight.
"Equity investors are one thing, but bond guys are the grown-ups in the room," Beauchamp told CNBC via email. "SpaceX might find it has its work cut out for it, but I suspect the market can absorb the issuance overall."
"The timing certainly isn't great, but we have seen brief bouts of panic like this before, and the wagon tends to roll onwards in the end."
Christopher Della Fave, senior vice president, capital markets at Post Oak Group, said: "Two weeks after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX is already tapping debt markets while carrying a $5 billion net loss and capex that more than doubled year over year."
Why SpaceX bonds raise diversification questionsDella Fave said SpaceX's losses and high capital expenditure aren't "alarming" in isolation, as "capital-intensive growth companies run hot."
However, he highlighted "the structural issue" that "investors aren't pricing in."
"Owning SPCX equity and SpaceX bonds isn't diversification," Della Fave added. "It's the same execution risk across two instruments."
"Starlink has to scale. Starship has to work. Both the equity story and the debt service depend on it. For portfolio construction, we treat total SpaceX exposure as a single concentrated position regardless of instrument, the same way you'd approach any single-name technology bet dressed up as a multi-asset allocation."
SpaceX's multi-billion-dollar debt issuance means many investors have become exposed to the group via two different asset classes – equities, via its blockbuster IPO on June 12 – and now, corporate bonds.
"Nearly all investors already hold allocations to US technology and the purpose of bonds as an asset class is surely to diversify," Julian Howard, multi-asset head at Gam, told CNBC on Friday.
He pointed out that SpaceX's 10-year issue is trading at a relatively tight spread to the equivalent U.S. Treasury of 1.4 percentage points.
In the debt sale, SpaceX priced bonds in five different tranches, with notes due between 2031 and 2056. Rates vary from 5.35% for the 2031 bonds to 6.65% for the 2056 notes.
"While that is comfortably ahead of inflation, the risk will be that spreads will widen if there is any hint of SpaceX not meeting its ambitious revenue targets, or if the outlook for tech and AI falters in any way," he added.
In the long term, SpaceX faces two big challenges in the markets, said Morningstar chief investment officer Mike Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetize gains," he told CNBC.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
SpaceX otestovala Starfall, znovupoužitelnou návratovou kapsli pro až 1 tunu nákladu z oběžné dráhy. Firma ji cílí na vojenskou logistiku i návrat materiálů z mikrogravitace.
On Tuesday, June 23, a SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying a vehicle most people had never heard of. The payload was called Starfall -- a disc-shaped reentry pod, 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall, designed to carry up to 1 metric ton of cargo from low-Earth orbit back to Earth's surface.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) described it publicly as a "microgravity lab" for scientific research and in-space manufacturing. What the Federal Aviation Administration's environmental assessment called it was more specific: a vehicle to "enable point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines."
Image source: Getty Images.
Those two descriptions are both accurate, and the gap between them is where the investor story lives.
The vehicle is not capable of de-orbiting itself. It relies on its launch vehicle -- a Falcon 9 today, potentially Starship later -- to guide it back toward the atmosphere, after which it orients its heat shield using compressed nitrogen gas and descends by parachute to a splashdown zone. It's smaller than SpaceX's Crew Dragon, built exclusively for cargo, and recoverable -- SpaceX intends to retrieve the vehicle and its parachutes for reuse.
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Two markets to pay attention to Two markets emerge immediately from that design profile. The first is military logistics. The Pentagon has been working toward a space-based point-to-point cargo delivery capability for years. In 2022, the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded SpaceX a $102 million contract to demonstrate the concept using Starship -- the ability to deliver roughly a C-17 Globemaster's worth of supplies anywhere on the planet in under 90 minutes. Starfall, smaller and deployable on the existing Falcon 9, is a complementary tool for lighter, more targeted deliveries that don't require Starship's enormous footprint or a prepared landing site. The Pentagon has signed similar early-stage agreements with Rocket Lab (RKLB +4.67%), Blue Origin, and Anduril for reentry vehicle development. SpaceX is the only company flying a working vehicle today.
The second market is commercial in-space manufacturing, and it's further along than most people realize. Varda Space Industries signed a partnership with United Therapeutics in May 2026 to manufacture drugs in microgravity -- specifically targeting small-molecule crystallization processes that Earth's gravity renders structurally imperfect. Varda CEO Will Bruey put the economics plainly at the 2026 Upfront Summit: A launch capable of processing space-manufactured drugs and returning them to Earth now costs roughly $2.2 million -- a number that makes pharmaceutical microgravity viable at commercial scale for the first time. Starfall, with its 1-metric-ton payload capacity and reusable design, is positioned as the return infrastructure that makes that supply chain possible at volume.
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This is where SpaceX's structural advantage over every competitor in this space becomes relevant to investors. Rocket Lab is targeting a 2026 demonstration of reentry capability on its Neutron rocket -- which has not yet flown. Blue Origin is earlier in the development process. Inversion Space received a $71 million contract for its Arc reentry vehicle, which remains in development. SpaceX flew Starfall on Tuesday. That lead time matters in a market where government procurement decisions follow demonstrated capability, not road maps.
The military's REGAL program -- Rocket Experimentation for Global Agile Logistics -- has explicitly framed point-to-point space cargo as a pathway to becoming a program of record, meaning recurring annual defense budget line items rather than one-time research and development (R&D) grants. SpaceX's $102 million AFRL contract was the first significant step in that direction. Starfall's successful demonstration puts the company in a position to substantially expand that relationship.
What this means for SPCX shareholders -- or those interested in investing Here is where the honest qualification belongs. Starfall's commercial potential is real, but the timelines are long, and the revenue is not yet material on SpaceX's financials. The company's near-term revenue story is Starlink, which generated $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 and remains the only profitable segment. Even in an optimistic scenario where it wins military contracts and becomes the backbone of orbital pharmaceutical manufacturing, Starfall adds revenue on a multiyear timeline.
For investors looking at SpaceX in a week when the stock has already fallen nearly 30% from its peak due to valuation and float concerns, Starfall is the kind of development that validates the long-term thesis without changing the short-term math.
It is also worth saying plainly: None of this is new. SpaceX has been demonstrating breakthrough capability for years, and investors who needed Tuesday's test to feel confident in the underlying technology were perhaps not paying close enough attention. SpaceX is building real technology that solves real problems.
The question that was true before Tuesday and remains true after it is whether the current price -- which sits 53% above Morningstar's base-case intrinsic value -- gives investors enough room for execution risk on programs that haven't yet generated meaningful revenue.
The technology is not what's in question. The valuation still is.
SpaceX became one of the quickest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, setting up a fresh wave of buying from passive investors less than a month after the company's blockbuster public debut.
Nasdaq announced after the close Friday whether SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index. Assuming the company meets the requirements, index-tracking funds and other product sponsors would begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which is one of the most popular securities traded each day and is seen as a barometer for the artificial intelligence bull market.
The aerospace and satellite company is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Adding SpaceX this quickly would make the Elon Musk company one of the first beneficiaries of Nasdaq's recently adopted fast-track inclusion framework for newly public companies. The changes allow some large IPOs to become eligible for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, dramatically shortening what had historically been a far longer waiting period.
Under the previous framework, investors tracking the Nasdaq-100 could be forced to wait months before gaining exposure to newly listed market giants.
The inclusion could create another source of demand for SpaceX, which has been one of the most actively traded stocks since its June 12 debut. Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 would need to buy shares to match the benchmark's new composition, while active managers who track the index closely might also adjust positions.
Because SpaceX's publicly tradable float remains small compared with its total market capitalization, even a modest index weighting could require meaningful purchases from passive investment vehicles.
Earlier this month, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to create a similar fast-track process for the S&P 500. Therefore, SpaceX remains ineligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 because of that index's separate profitability and seasoning requirements.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is considering launching a Starlink-branded mobile phone service in the United States, according to a Financial Times report published on Friday, potentially expanding the company's role in the telecommunications market.
The report cited comments from SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell during a recent investor roadshow, where she reportedly discussed plans for a direct-to-consumer wireless offering and the possibility of building a terrestrial mobile network in the US.
SpaceX currently works with T-Mobile to provide direct-to-cell satellite connectivity aimed at extending coverage to remote areas. A standalone mobile service would place the Elon Musk-led company in more direct competition with established wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.
According to the Financial Times, SpaceX has told investors that a retail Starlink mobile product could allow the company to capture a larger share of customer revenue by combining satellite capabilities with terrestrial wireless infrastructure.
The company strengthened its wireless spectrum holdings through acquisitions of EchoStar licenses totaling about $19.6 billion, including a roughly $17 billion purchase in September 2025 and an additional $2.6 billion transaction in November.
Starlink has more than 10 million subscribers worldwide and has become a key contributor to SpaceX's record valuation.
Shares of SpaceX traded hands at $153 on Friday, after debuting at $135 per share on June 12.
SpaceX se po pátečním uzavření obchodování přidá do indexů Russell, což může vyvolat nákupy za téměř 3 miliardy USD a zvýšit volatilitu akcie. Titul už po vstupu na burzu prudce kolísá.
SpaceX logo as an employe looks at his phone while making his way to work at the company’s facility on the day of the SpaceX IPO, in Hawthorne, California, U.S. June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mike... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
June 26 (Reuters) - Even by SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab standards, Friday is shaping up as an eventful trading session as investment funds tracking Russell indexes prepare to add billions of dollars' worth of Elon Musk's internet and rocket company to their holdings.
After a blockbuster initial public offering this month, SpaceX's stock has been on a wild ride, soaring 67% to its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 before tumbling to Thursday's $153 close.
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The stock remains well above the $135 IPO price as investors assess how to value a company that lost $4.9 billion last year, but that backers expect to dominate the satellite internet, AI and commercial space launch markets that they believe will define the next decade of global infrastructure.
FTSE Russell will add SpaceX to its Russell U.S. indexes after Friday's close of trading as part of its semi-annual index reconstitution. That means passively managed exchange-traded funds that track Russell indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB.P), opens new tab, will have to add SpaceX shares to their portfolios. The event will likely take place in a narrow window toward market close on Friday as fund managers attempt to minimize the "tracking error" between their funds' performance and the index that can result if their buy-in price differs from the closing price.
While SpaceX's $2 trillion market capitalization makes it almost as valuable as Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, only about $100 billion of shares have been listed for trading on the stock market, with the rest owned by Musk, other insiders and employees. Passively managed funds will need to buy almost $3 billion worth of SpaceX shares to match the Russell indexes they track, Jefferies estimated in a report this month. That could mean a squeeze as Friday's closing auction approaches, though options positioning appeared muted.
SpaceX options contracts set to expire on Friday are priced for a share price swing of 3.6% in either direction by the end of the week, Trade Alert data showed.
SpaceX is also set to be added to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab in July, an event that will force large index funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks that index, to buy its shares.
Following its losses in recent sessions, SpaceX is trading at 107 times its 2025 sales, an astronomical valuation. By comparison, AI heavyweight chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab recently traded at 21 times sales.
S&P Global blocked SpaceX from joining the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab after it said this month it would not change its inclusion criteria to accommodate megacap IPOs. To be included in the S&P 500, a company must be profitable in its most recent quarter as well as for the sum of its most recent four quarters, according to one of the rules S&P left unchanged.
The S&P 500 addition in 2020 of another Musk company, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, resulted in a closing squeeze that sent shares up 6%.
Reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; editing by Colin Barr, Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
San Francisco correspondent covering the stock market with a focus on Big Tech, semiconductors and other Silicon Valley companies
SpaceX po IPO zažívá prudké výkyvy, když akcie po úvodním růstu o více než 60 % následně spadly až o 16 %. Retailoví investoři v prvních pěti obchodních seancích nakoupili čistě za 405 milionů USD.
This report is from this week's The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Rollercoaster. That's probably the most accurate word to describe SpaceX's opening two weeks as a public company.
The stock surged for several successive days following a record-breaking IPO, briefly overtaking both Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market cap and rising more than 60% on the initial share offering price of $135.
But the good times weren't set to last. Daily drops of 5% and 4% were followed by a 16% slump as jitters crept into the market. Steadier days followed, with single point moves in either direction.
The volatility underscores the whipsaw nature of a story-driven stock.
Lofty sci-fi ambitions, huge coverage in the *ahem* media and a founder with a cult-like following whipped up a frenzy of excitement around the company.
"Most stocks trade based on how their multiple of earnings compares to other comparable stocks," Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told me.
"Elon Musk companies don't really do that." Musk's ventures instead trade on expectations, he added.
"Tesla trades more on [autonomous driving service] Robotaxi and [humanoid robot] Optimus than they do on selling cars, and SpaceX trades more on the promise of Mars exploration, or at least data centers in space," said Luria.
Retail investors bought into that forward-looking narrative in droves.
SpaceX "embodies many of the qualities that have historically resonated with retail investors: a transformational technology story, a bold vision of the future, a celebrity founder and unparalleled media attention," Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda, said.
In the first five trading sessions, retail investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX shares, comfortably the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history, said research firm Vanda.
"For SpaceX, the 'cult of Elon' pulls in more retail investors and adds extra hype that can add a lot to volatility as we saw with Tesla share prices," Mike Coop, chief investment officer, EMEA at Morningstar Wealth, told me. Morningstar analysts caused a stir in the run-up to SpaceX's IPO, writing that the stock was worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion target.
After a bullish initial few days on the public markets, fundamentals became a bigger driver of the price causing a "hangover," said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Musk has been, in a somewhat predictable fashion, touting sky-high revenue growth in years to come. He said on June 14 that the company "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion revenue in 2030.
That would mark a huge jump from the $18.7 billion in revenue SpaceX made in 2025. The company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, and it lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Long term SpaceX faces two big challenges on the markets, said Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetise gains," he said.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
Despite that, so far few have been willing to bet against the stock.
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame said on June 16 that he has no position in SpaceX, and argued that options used to wager against the stock remain too expensive even as he questioned the company's nearly $3 trillion market value.
And while SpaceX is seeing some interest from short sellers, many are still reluctant to bet against Musk.
Time will tell how far narrative takes SpaceX stock. In any case, expect more twists and turns on the rollercoaster.
Latest updatesAnthropic is racing to increase its AI compute capacity in the Asia-Pacific region, as the company scrambles to keep up with soaring demand for its products.
OpenAI and Broadcom on Wednesday unveiled their debut custom chip, called Jalapeño, marking the ChatGPT maker's first entry into artificial intelligence silicon.
A second worker has died at the construction site of BYD's electric vehicle factory in Szeged, Hungary, CNBC has learned.
Apple on Thursday announced price hikes on MacBooks and iPads, its first formal move to pass higher memory and storage costs on to consumers after CEO Tim Cook said increases had become unavoidable.
ON Semiconductor has agreed to buy Synaptics in a nearly $7 billion all-stock deal to bolster its push into physical artificial intelligence technology.
Stock of the week
Micron stock.
Memory chipmaker Micron had a good week as its third-quarter results topped analysts' estimates.
The U.S. company has been one of the main beneficiaries of the AI boom, with its stock price up more than 800% over the past year, lifting the company's market cap past $1 trillion.
SpaceX plánuje příští měsíc začít stavět 8mílové potrubí Starpipe do texaských zařízení pro starty Starship. Potrubí má být v provozu do 26. ledna a má urychlit starty rakety.
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to start building 8-mile pipeline next monthProject would fuel more launches of Starship moon rocketPipeline is part of sprawling SpaceX gas plans in TexasWASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile (13-km) natural gas pipeline called "Starpipe" to its Texas launch facilities, according to county filings, as Elon Musk’s company seeks to ramp up launches of its next‑generation Starship rocket.
Starpipe, which will end at SpaceX’s Texas company town of Starbase, is expected to be in service by January 26, according to a document filed last month with the Texas Railroad Commission by SpaceX affiliate Lone Star Mineral Development and reviewed by Reuters.
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The pipeline plan, previously reported by Rio Grande Valley Business Journal, signals Musk's intent to accelerate Starship's development and lay the groundwork for a faster flight rate. The 40‑story rocket is central to SpaceX’s push to expand its Starlink broadband network, deploy orbital AI data center satellites, and eventually carry astronauts to the moon and Mars.
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons (2.4 million liters) of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds and eventually thousands of launches a year.
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX'S BIG GAS PLANSThough it is unusual for a space company to build its own natural gas pipeline for launchpad fuel, Starpipe might only be an initial step in a longer-term plan for SpaceX, which has spent years exploring its own drilling operations near Starbase and throughout Texas, according to a Reuters review of Cameron County land records.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on June 12, when the company went public, that the company planned to build pipelines and process its own propellant, and was looking into drilling its own natural gas.
Extracting natural gas would be a challenging pursuit for a company with no oil and gas experience, said Stan Lindsey, an oil and gas consultant in Texas.
“I’m not saying it's beyond the realm of possibility … it’s possible they got a really nice prospect," Lindsey said. But if those drilling plans fall short, he added, “they’ve got a fallback position” with Starpipe.
SpaceX has signed over 100 paid-up oil and gas leases with Texas property owners since 2023, the land records show.
Starpipe would begin on an 83-acre (34-hectare) piece of land at the Port of Brownsville that SpaceX is in talks to lease from the city for 50 years, a port official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.
Engineering plans SpaceX filed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included in a public notice issued last August, show SpaceX wants to build a liquefaction facility at Starbase to process the piped-in natural gas into liquid methane.
"Certainly that would make the most efficient sense," said William Farrar, a longtime oil and gas lawyer in Texas and geoscientist.
The company could tap into Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline expansion project that would run close to Starpipe's start point, Lindsey said.
Enbridge did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX WANTS TO OWN SUPPLY CHAINSpaceX's move into gas infrastructure, typically the domain of energy and pipeline firms, underscores its longstanding strategy of controlling as much of its supply chain as possible, a capital‑intensive approach that has helped the company outpace rivals in rocket and spacecraft development.
The effort positions SpaceX to manage an unusually broad chain of resources, stretching from natural gas deep beneath Earth's surface to the moon, where Musk wants to use lunar material for AI‑focused satellite production, an ambitious and untested goal.
The pipeline’s 16‑inch (406-mm) diameter suggests fuel demand exceeding what Starship would require for 25 launches, the annual cadence currently approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.
SpaceX ultimately aims to deploy thousands of solar‑powered, AI‑focused satellites whose combined energy output could approach one-fifth of the U.S. power grid, according to its initial public offering prospectus.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Joe Brock and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.88%) is in the spotlight for all the right reasons. It just completed the largest initial public offering in history, having raised $75 billion by offering 555 million shares at $135 each plus another $10.7 billion from the underwriters that exercised their options to buy more shares. However, the number of shares available for public trading is still tiny relative to SpaceX's over $2 trillion market cap.
The company's float could increase to as much as 37% in late August. But until then, there's a supply-demand crunch on the stock, which is contributing to its volatility. SpaceX is already down big from its intraday high of $225.64, although as of the close of trading Tuesday, it was still up 4% from its initial trading price of $150 per share.
While long-term investors may not appreciate the volatility or the financial engineering of SpaceX's public market debut, they may be intrigued by the company's bold plans to launch millions of artificial intelligence (AI) data center satellites into orbit.
Here's why SpaceX is betting big on orbital data centers, and if the growth stock is a great buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A different type of SpaceX satellite SpaceX isn't profitable, but it has multiple levers that it could pull to unlock growth over the next several decades and beyond. It conducted around 80% of U.S. space launches in 2025 and exited that year with 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit. It owns xAI, the social media platform X, and could deploy millions of AI compute satellites -- which SpaceX says would actually be easier to manufacture than Starlink satellites because they won't need to have complex antennas.
The company's first AI satellite design features a 70-meter wingspan and a deployed height of 20 meters. By comparison, the majority of Starlink satellites in orbit are second-generation V2 Mini satellites, which are just 4.1 meters by 2.7 meters. The bigger issue is the added payload weight: AI satellites' compute clusters will have a lot of mass, making them significantly more expensive to launch.
Additionally, SpaceX plans to launch its AI compute satellites into a higher-altitude sun-synchronous orbit. This will make solar power generation predictable. However, it will also make the massive AI satellites more visible at night than most Starlink satellites.
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Satellite manufacturing on an unprecedented scale SpaceX says it aims to have 1 gigawatt (GW) of AI compute satellites in orbit by the end of 2027, then scale that by an order of magnitude in the subsequent three years, reaching 10 GW by the end of 2028, 100 GW by the end of 2029, and 1 terawatt (1,000 GW) by the end of 2030. At a peak output of 150 kW per satellite based on its AI1 satellite design, that would mean 6,667 satellites at 1 GW, 66,667 satellites at 10 GW, 666,667 satellites at 100 GW, and then a mind-numbing 6.67 million satellites at 1 terawatt. To describe that as ambitious would be an understatement.
To get there, SpaceX is building a more than 11-million-square-foot factory it has dubbed "Gigasat" in Bastrop, Texas, which is just outside Austin. Situated on a more than 1,000-acre site, that factory will handle end-to-end production of AI compute satellites, from the solar panels that will power them to the electronic components and satellite assembly.
Tesla (TSLA 0.45%) investors will be familiar with CEO Elon Musk's preference for vertically integrated manufacturing. Expanding beyond its Fremont, California, factory to large-scale production centers (Gigafactories) in Nevada, New York, Texas, Shanghai, and Germany was an integral part of the strategy that allowed Tesla to grow into a major global automaker. However, Tesla was expanding production while facing the scrutiny that all public companies must accept. Plus, it was capital-constrained and relied heavily on scaling up its Model 3 production to boost cash flow and fund its manufacturing expansion.
SpaceX has a massive advantage in that it is already worth more than Tesla and should have no problem turning to capital markets to raise capital, whether by issuing debt or selling more equity. SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025, yet the market doesn't seem to care, given its growth potential.
In sum, Tesla was consistently trying to prove to public markets that electric vehicles could be profitable and disrupt the automotive industry, whereas SpaceX has a first-mover advantage in a new niche of the data center market where it faces virtually no direct competitors.
AI satellite constellations are far from a sure bet Investors are giving SpaceX the green light to think big on a cosmic scale. Investors buying SpaceX today probably care way more about its timeline for launching AI compute satellites into space rather than the costs of its path to profitability.
But SpaceX will undoubtedly run into challenges along the way to deploying its constellation of satellites. And as the quarters tick by, investor patience could be tested -- especially during market sell-offs or if there's a slowdown in AI spending.
All told, there's no rush to buy SpaceX right now, at a time when sentiment is overwhelmingly positive and investor enthusiasm is through the roof. The better approach would be to keep SpaceX on your watch list and monitor its progress on constructing Gigasat and getting its first AI satellites launched into space. If its big idea pays off, SpaceX will deserve to be worth much more than it is today. But at this time, that's a big "if."
SpaceX prodala dluhopisy za 25 miliard USD a podle CNBC dorazily objednávky téměř za 90 miliard USD. Desetileté dluhopisy nesly výnos jen o 1,4 procentního bodu nad americkými státními dluhopisy.
CNBC’s Becky Quick reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) tapped the bond market for $25 billion in a sale that priced less than two weeks after its record-breaking IPO. The deal landed at terms typically reserved for the highest-quality corporate borrowers, signaling that fixed-income investors are willing to lend to the newly public space, connectivity, and AI company on terms close to those granted to America’s most established blue-chip companies.
SpaceX Had $90 Billion of Orders for the $25 Billion Debt Raise According to Quick, the financing was priced across five tranches with 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30-year maturities. The benchmark 10-year notes were priced at just 1.4 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, an unusually tight spread for a company that only recently began trading publicly. For context, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51% on June 22, 2026, near the upper end of its 12-month range that spanned 3.97% to 4.67%.
People familiar with the fundraising told CNBC that the sale drew close to $90 billion in orders, well in excess of the $25 billion offered. SpaceX said the proceeds will be used to repay a bridge loan and fund other corporate purposes, shifting the capital structure from short-term bridge financing toward a layered ladder of long-dated debt.
The Credit Market Is Treating SpaceX Like a Blue-Chip Company The 1.4 percentage point spread on the 10-year tranche is the headline number for credit investors. Spreads in that neighborhood are typically associated with single-A or strong triple-B issuers with long, predictable cash flow histories. SpaceX is a brand-new public reporting company whose valuation, as The Atlantic recently put it, looks “untethered from traditional corporate finance metrics.” The willingness of bond buyers to take that spread and submit roughly $90 billion in orders against a $25 billion book indicates the credit market is treating the company as a strategic infrastructure operator rather than a speculative growth name.
That framing aligns with how Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski has described the business, arguing investors are underestimating SpaceX by viewing it solely as an aerospace firm when its multi-platform footprint spans launch operations, communications, defense, and AI connectivity. The company’s Starlink network, powered by approximately 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, now delivers service across 164 countries, territories, and other markets, and the company has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023. That kind of recurring, infrastructure-like revenue base is exactly what fixed-income desks look for when underwriting investment-grade paper.
The Stock Has Slumped, But the Bond Market Isn’t Worried The bond market’s enthusiasm contrasts with how SPCX has traded since its debut. The IPO priced at $135 and peaked at over $225 before retreating. Shares were trading near $153.57 in early action on June 24, after a 22.64% slide over the prior week. The pullback has not dented the company’s status as one of the most valuable issuers on the NASDAQ, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.16 trillion.
What to Watch Next For stockholders, the debt raise removes a near-term overhang by extending the bridge loan and locking in financing across a 5- to 30-year maturity ladder. For credit investors, the combination of a 1.4 percentage-point 10-year spread and roughly $90 billion in demand suggests the institutional credit market has already made up its mind, even as public equity traders continue to debate the right valuation for the company.
Analytik Oppenheimer Tim Horan ponechal pro SpaceX doporučení ke koupi a cílovou cenu 250 USD, zároveň mluví o ocenění 10 bilionů USD za pět let. Klíčem má být Starlink a rozvoj Starship.
Tim Horan, Oppenheimer’s satellite and AI infrastructure analyst, went on CNBC Monday to defend a price target that sounds absurd until you back into the math. He kept his buy rating and $250 price target on SpaceX as the stock fell in its third consecutive session of decline, and floated a five-year valuation of $10 trillion. For context, that would make SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) worth roughly the GDP of Germany and Japan combined.
The stock is having a rough debut. Shares are at $158, down from $192.50 a week earlier, and CNBC noted the average post-IPO buyer is almost underwater after the slide, with the five-day volume-weighted average sitting near $181. Tuesday brought a 5.34% bounce to $162.86, but Reddit has spent the past week dissecting threads with titles like “The math isn’t mathing on the SpaceX IPO” and “SPCX – Beware, institutional money is NOT buying this trash on the open market”. Horan is leaning into that doubt.
The vertical integration thesis What SpaceX is, in Horan’s framing, is no longer a launch company. “The company we think has doubled their valuation in the last six months by entering the AI market,” he told CNBC, “and we think they’re going to continue to do incredibly creative things.” The pivot point was the early-2026 acquisition of xAI, which folded Grok and its X-platform integration into SpaceX as a core business pillar.
That repositioning matters because of what Horan thinks the addressable market looks like. “They think AI is a $25 trillion TAM, and they are the only vertically integrated company that can attack every segment of this and really disrupt an awful lot of industries,” he said. Then the part that sounds like science fiction. “SpaceX is making their own solar panels. They want to make their own chips… build a fab that will create five times the amount of chips that the whole world is producing.”
Take that claim with appropriate skepticism. But the underlying point survives even if the fab is half that size. SpaceX already controls the launch stack. It launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit annually since 2023, with Falcon rockets at over 99% mission success. Owning the rockets, the satellites, the ground network, the AI model, and eventually the chips is exactly the moat the bull case requires.
Starlink as the funding engine The cash to fund all of this is supposed to come from Starlink. “We think Starlink will be worth roughly $1 trillion,” Horan said. “Over the next 5 to 10 years they’re going to increase capacity a hundred fold. They already have about 12 million broadband subscribers globally. We think they could easily support a couple of hundred million.”
Moreover, the constellation is already enormous. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink served customers across 164 countries through roughly 9,600 low-Earth-orbit satellites, with a satellite-to-mobile layer extending coverage to about 30 countries. There is also a quietly compelling tailwind. A recent GAO assessment noted the Department of Energy projects data centers will account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028, driven by AI, and that since January 2026 the FCC has received three applications from U.S. companies for large satellite constellations operating as orbital data centers. If compute migrates toward orbit, the company that owns cheap heavy-lift launch capacity collects rent from everyone.
What can go wrong Horan named the near-term risk himself. “Short term it’s really getting the starship to work. We need the starship to kind of get the new communications satellites up.” Without Starship reaching reliable operational cadence, the hundredfold Starlink capacity expansion does not happen, and the $1 trillion in revenue Musk has targeted stays a slide.
For investors, the gap between Horan’s view and market consensus shows in the price action itself. SpaceX, registered with the SEC, currently trades around $158, well off its 52-week high of $225.64. The Atlantic this week described the stock as “a financial instrument for Musk, a meme, and a testament to the irrationality of the modern stock market.” Horan’s $250 target and $10 trillion long-term call assume the meme grows into the moat. The next twelve Starship launches will settle the argument.
SpaceX čeká první uvolnění akcií koncem července nebo začátkem srpna, kdy mohou insideri a raní investoři začít prodávat. To může zvýšit tlak na pokles po přehřátém růstu po vstupu na burzu.
SpaceX (SPCX 0.05%) has taken investors on a wild ride since its June 12 IPO. The aerospace and AI company went public at $135 per share, started trading at $150, and soared to a record high of $225.64 on June 16. But as of this writing, it trades at about $160.
SpaceX's stock pulled back because its valuation had gotten overheated. At its peak, its market cap briefly hit $2.66 trillion, or 142 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. It also only floated about 4% of its shares in its IPO, and that limited supply amplified its gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
Yet after that pullback, SpaceX is still worth $2.06 trillion, or 110 times last year's sales. That's a bubbly valuation for a company that grew its revenue by 33% in 2025. While market hype and rosy expectations could prevent its stock from dipping below its IPO price, it could face a reckoning once its lockup periods start to expire in about a month.
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When will SpaceX's lockup periods expire? When a company goes public, its insiders, early investors, and institutional investors are barred from selling their shares immediately. Instead, they generally need to wait until the traditional 180-day "lockup period" ends before they can sell those shares.
However, that's not a firm rule -- so companies can structure their lockup periods in different ways. Instead of waiting for 180 days, SpaceX will allow its insiders and early investors to sell their shares in several waves. The first wave will occur on the second trading day after its second-quarter earnings report in late July or early August.
On that day, SpaceX will unlock 20% of its shares held by its employees and early pre-IPO holders. If its stock closed at or above $175.50 per share for at least five of the ten consecutive days before the earnings release, it will unlock another 10% of its shares. It will continue to unlock 7% of its shares on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24.
On the second trading day after its third-quarter earnings report in late October or early November, it will unlock 28% of its shares. On Dec. 8, it will unlock all of its remaining shares.
Why should investors watch these dates? SpaceX's stock could decline on those lockup dates as its insiders and early investors cash out. That selling could make it much easier and cheaper to short the stock. Therefore, if you believe SpaceX has a bright future but don't want to pay the wrong price for the right stock, those lockup expirations could create some good buying opportunities.
