The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJuly 15 (Reuters) - SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price on Wednesday, a first for the company, just over a month after a frenzy over the rockets-to-AI firm powered the biggest IPO ever and made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.
Its shares (SPCX.O), opens new tab slid 2.7% to $132.5, falling below the $135 apiece IPO price and well below the all-time high of $225.64, which propelled the company's market valuation briefly above those of Silicon Valley giants Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab.
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Many contended the stock's rally was likely vulnerable to reversals, given SpaceX's $4.9 billion in net losses last year and the uncertainty over the firm's prospects as well as the stock valuations that might hold across the market at a time when inflation has been rising, putting the Fed's policymakers on notice.
The decline leaves investors who bought into the company at the IPO price sitting on paper losses for the first time, potentially testing confidence in the stock.
It also offers a reminder that Wall Street enthusiasm can cool quickly, even for a company with the size and scale of SpaceX, which raised around $85.7 billion and fetched a valuation of around $2.1 trillion at the end of its first trading day.
It is not uncommon for a stock to fall below the IPO price, especially during periods of broader market stress.
Wall Street's main indexes have been under pressure in recent weeks due to uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path and concerns about the durability of the rally powered by AI winners such as chipmakers.
Still, the drop may bolster critics who had argued that SpaceX's valuation was stretched, as the company was unprofitable and many of its ambitious bets were still untested.
Investors would find better entry points after the first wave of excitement had faded, some analysts had warned before the IPO.
The reversal also underscores the risks of chasing momentum, and the limits of a valuation driven more by narrative than near-term fundamentals.
The stock's addition to prestigious indexes, such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab, did little to reignite the buying. SpaceX's shares have dropped nearly 13% since they were included in the Nasdaq 100.
The focus now shifts to the company's first results after listing. SpaceX has not yet disclosed when it plans to do it, but has said they will be released only through its website and its social media account on X, and not through wire distribution services.
Reporting by Niket Nishant, Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Pooja Desai
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
HomeIndustriesAerospace/Defense2026 has already broken records for investment in the so-called ‘space economy’ with half a year left to goJuly 15, 2026, 7:58 a.m. ET
SpaceX has paved the way for the space industry to flourish, and its initial public offering drove investment to new heights.
Space Capital, a venture-capital firm, reported Wednesday that some $31.6 billion had been invested in 129 companies in what it calls the “space economy” in the second quarter of 2026. That includes companies developing space-related infrastructure and those making hardware and software connecting and using space-based assets, as well as ventures that benefit from those assets.
CHICAGO and MILWAUKEE and NEW YORK, July 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- YieldMax® ETFs today announced the launch of the following ETF:
YieldMax® SPCX Option Income Strategy ETF (NYSE: YSPC)
YSPC seeks to maximize income potential by pursuing options-based strategies on Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX). Tidal Investments LLC serves as investment adviser to YSPC. YSPC does not invest directly in SPCX.
YSPC is the newest member of the YieldMax® Single Stock Option Income Strategy ETF family and like all YieldMax® ETFs, it aims to deliver current income to investors. With respect to distributions, YSPC will be a Group 2 ETF, and its first distribution is expected to be announced on July 29, 2026.
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YieldMax® ETFs was founded by ETF industry veterans with decades of experience in income-focused investments, options strategies, portfolio management, fund risk management, and fund operations. Our mission is to create innovative and unique ETFs that solve problems for investors of all types.
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A portion (sometimes significant) of the Fund’s distributions may be classified as return of capital (“ROC”) for financial or tax reporting purposes, which would decrease the Fund’s NAV and trading price over time.
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Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.
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Lucky 13. SpaceX is planning to test its Starship rocket for the thirteenth time on Thursday, July 16. (GABRIEL V. CARDENAS/AFP via Getty Images)
SpaceX stock is dangerously close to breaking its $135 IPO price. Shares, after a great start, have had a tough go over the past few days. Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company needs some good news to turn things around.
When Senra CEO Jordan Black was a SpaceX engineer, he took on the job of scaling up the company’s wire harnesses to support production of Starship, the company’s next-generation rocket.
Wire harnesses are what they sound like: the internal electrical cabling that runs through a rocketship, car, plane, or tractor and becomes increasingly important the smarter those vehicles get. They’re bespoke, put together by technicians who are, functionally, experienced craftspeople.
“I traveled all over the world to go visit wire harness companies,” Black told TechCrunch last month. “It really hasn’t changed since the Cold War era of wooden tables [and] manual processes.”
Black and co-founder Benjamin Shanahan started Senra in 2023 to offer a more modern solution to vehicle manufacturers. Today, the startup is announcing a $65 million Series B round, co-led by Lowercarbon and Interlagos with participation from General Catalyst, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Founders Fund, among others.
Serna isn’t looking to take humans out of the handmaking process—at least not while robots find manipulating wires a challenge and relevant training data remains scarce. Instead, it’s turning to software tools and other forms of automation to modernize aspects of the traditional manual work.
The company is benefiting from the surge of money into U.S. manufacturing, particularly the defense industrial base. While Black couldn’t disclose customers, he said they include builders of “anything from submarines and maritime vehicles, to defense vehicle systems on land, to launch vehicles, to satellites.”
If it doesn’t sound immediately important, consider a recent wire harness disaster. In 2023, Boeing discovered that its Starliner spacecraft’s wiring was held together with flammable tape, forcing an expensive delay while the entire wiring system was redone.
Black points to that experience as a reason to raise the standards for wire harnessing, using automated systems to track materials and engineering changes. “Having it all in the same software is probably the most important thing, because it’s all the little inputs that happen that can make a catastrophic change down the road,” he said.
Senra uses Amp, a proprietary software platform, to standardize the inputs throughout the wiring process and produce a digital twin to guide its technicians, who are trained by the company in what Black says is the only federally certified wire harness training program. The company is also, as it scales, finding ways to automate more of the process.
“It goes back to the Elon principle of, ‘automation is last,’” Black told TechCrunch. “We’re working on it now, but a lot of it the standardization and the foundation building that made SpaceX be able to scale something like rockets, which you could only build one a year if you were lucky, and now they do hundreds a year.”
Senra — which, by the way, is “harness” spelled backwards, minus the “h” and “s,” because Black says the company takes the “horsesh*t” out of harnesses — produces 1,000 each month across two different factories and plans to increae production to 10,000 a month in 2027.
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Tim Fernholz is a journalist who writes about technology, finance and public policy. He has closely covered the rise of the private space industry and is the author of Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and the New Space Race. Formerly, he was a senior reporter at Quartz, the global business news site, for more than a decade, and began his career as a political reporter in Washington, D.C. You can contact or verify outreach from Tim by emailing [email protected] or via an encrypted message to tim_fernholz.21 on Signal.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX briefly looked unstoppable after the world’s largest initial public offering, but almost all the early excitement has now disappeared.
Shares closed Tuesday at $136.08, only $1.08, or 0.8%, above the $135 offering price.
The stock has fallen almost 40% from its June 16 intraday peak of $225.64, wiping an estimated $1.2 trillion from SpaceX’s implied market value.
Yet Wall Street remains strongly bullish. An average analyst target near $240 implies about 76% upside from Tuesday’s close, an estimate based on analysts’ forecasts, not a guaranteed rebound.
The post-IPO excitement has almost vanishedSpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 11 and began trading on Nasdaq the following day under the SPCX ticker.
Its shares opened at $150 before finishing their first session at $160.95, a 19% gain from the offer price.
The company ultimately raised $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their full allotment option.
By June 16, only its third trading session, the stock had touched an intraday record of $225.64.
The reversal has been just as dramatic. SpaceX has since surrendered nearly 40%, fallen below its first-day close and recorded three consecutive declines through Tuesday.
The IPO price now carries psychological as well as financial importance.
A sustained break below $135 would put the institutions that bought shares in the offering underwater and could further weaken confidence in a listing marketed as a rare opportunity to own Elon Musk’s launch, satellite-connectivity and AI businesses.
The decline is particularly striking because analysts have largely refused to lower their ambitious forecasts.
Roughly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying the stock, while the average target is close to $240.
Evercore ISI became the latest broker to turn bullish on Tuesday, initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $230 target.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has one of the highest mainstream targets at $300.
The bank’s thesis rests on SpaceX combining near-monopoly launch economics, the world’s largest low-Earth-orbit satellite network and a rapidly expanding AI-infrastructure operation.
Starlink could provide recurring cash flow, while Starship may eventually cut launch costs enough to unlock larger markets in communications, defence, lunar transport and orbital computing.
Jonas’s bullish scenario depends heavily on Starship becoming fully reusable and operating at an enormous scale.
Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan takes a more conservative approach but still rates SpaceX a Buy with a $205 target.
Goldman sees the company as positioned across space, connectivity and AI, with each market potentially developing into a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield has a $246 target and describes SpaceX as a “planetary infrastructure company”.
He argues that controlling rockets, satellite connectivity, AI computing and the X distribution platform creates vertical integration that conventional valuation models may struggle to capture.
The sell-off shows that investors are not accepting those assumptions without question.
SpaceX remains valued at roughly $1.8 trillion, is not expected to report a profit in 2026 and trades near 50 times estimated sales.
Share supply is another concern. The prospectus allows eligible pre-IPO holders to sell as much as 20% of their holdings shortly after SpaceX publishes its first quarterly results.
The report is expected in August, creating the prospect of substantially more stock entering the public market.
MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu illustrates the sceptical case.
She initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $131 target, acknowledging the strength of SpaceX’s launch business while warning that the range of potential financial outcomes remains unusually wide.
Zhu told Business Insider that regulatory scrutiny was the largest long-term risk as SpaceX expands across connected industries.
She argued that vertical integration could eventually attract the type of antitrust attention already directed at dominant technology platforms.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%) splashed onto the scene just a few weeks ago when it completed the world's biggest initial public offering, raising more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option. Of course, SpaceX wasn't new to investors -- the company had been making headlines for years, particularly for its rocket launches for NASA. But this was the first time investors, from retail to professional, could easily invest in the company.
Demand was high during the IPO -- it was greatly oversubscribed -- and during the first days of trading. The stock soared 50% from its $150 debut price to a peak of $225 on June 16. In recent days, though, SpaceX has lost the positive momentum. In fact, the stock has slipped below its debut price.
If you had invested $10,000 in SpaceX's early days of trading, how much would this investment be worth in a year? History offers us a very clear answer.
Image source: Getty Images.
Exciting growth businesses First, though, let's take a quick look at the SpaceX story. The company has attracted investors thanks to its exciting growth businesses and its ambitious leader, Elon Musk. SpaceX operates in rocket launches, satellite-based internet, and artificial intelligence (AI), areas that each could drive significant revenue gains if they reach certain goals. And speaking of goals, many are ambitious, but if the company can accomplish them, they could be game changers. For example, SpaceX aims to develop data centers in space, and its most ambitious goal may be to colonize Mars.
What's interesting about this mix of businesses is that they fit together nicely, with accomplishments of one driving gains in another. SpaceX's work to make reusable rockets and drive down the costs of launches will help it launch equipment more cheaply and quickly into space for its other businesses.
Elon Musk is the chief executive officer behind these ambitions, and while some investors aren't fans of his strategies, others are -- and they generally rush to bet on Musk. The popularity of the SpaceX IPO is proof of this.
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$18 billion in revenue SpaceX has made progress in various areas -- it aims to launch its fully reusable rocket, Starship, with payloads later this year -- and is delivering growth. Revenue last year climbed more than 30% to $18 billion. But SpaceX needs to invest heavily to support the development of its technology, and this pushed the company to a $4.9 billion loss. This may continue, considering the complexity of the technology involved in the company's businesses.
Now, let's consider the potential value of a $10,000 investment in SpaceX after the stock's first full year of trading. A look at some of the biggest IPOs, from Meta Platforms to Uber Technologies, shows that eight out of 10 fell in their first 12 months on the stock market. Seven of them delivered double-digit declines, and the average drop was 12%.
We might consider SpaceX's performance as falling into the average, and here's why: On its first day of trading, it climbed nearly 20%. According to a study by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, the average first-day return of more than 6,000 IPOs between 1990 and 2025 was just over 21%.
So if we also apply the average drop seen in our look at 10 major IPOs to SpaceX, we come up with the following: History shows us that your $10,000 investment in SpaceX would be worth $8,800 after 12 months.
Major IPOs in general haven't delivered gains after their first year on the market, and the greatly popular SpaceX could follow unless it breaks with this historical trend, which, of course, is possible. Still, all of this means that investors shouldn't necessarily rush to get in on IPO stocks, as there may be better entry points down the road.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%) has had a volatile first month as a publicly traded company. Its share price rose to as much as $225, but as of writing, it has sunk back near its $135 IPO price, currently trading just $1 above it. Opinions on SpaceX's prospects are divided. The bulls will argue that, given its large addressable market and leadership in core markets, including space travel and satellite-based internet services, the stock could produce outstanding returns over the long run.
The bears will point out that SpaceX remains unprofitable, and its financial results and outlook hardly justify a $1.8 trillion valuation. Time will tell who is right, but recent news from the company was a bit of a win for the bulls. Let's look into these recent developments and what they could mean for the stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Starlink could become a bigger growth engine First, let's briefly review SpaceX's Starlink, which is currently its most profitable business. It offers high-speed internet through a network of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, with speeds ranging from 100 Mbps (megabits per second) to over 400 Mbps. This isn't the fastest speed, not by a long shot. Fiber internet is much faster, with some legacy providers offering speeds well above 1000 Mbps.
Some customers still opt for Starlink right now because they live in rural and other traditionally underserved areas. However, SpaceX wants Starlink to be more mainstream. The company recently filed a request with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy up to 100,000 of its new Gen3 Starlink satellites.
There are several things to note about this proposal. Let's focus on two. First, Starlink currently has a bit over 10,400 satellites in orbit -- so 100,000 would be a substantial increase. With far more satellites in space, Starlink's internet speeds could improve dramatically. Second, SpaceX wants to launch this constellation in very low Earth orbit, rather than the LEO satellites it currently operates.
This is another factor that would boost speed. SpaceX isn't shy about its ambitions here. The company is looking to build a network of satellites that could handle the majority of the world's internet traffic.
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SpaceX has some things to address first This is an ambitious proposal, but there are several problems. One is that, given how quickly SpaceX currently builds Starlink satellites, it will take a long time to manufacture 100,000 of them, let alone launch them into space. The company produced an average of 70 satellites per week at its Redmond, Washington facility between December 2025 and April 2026.
That's just 3,640 annually. At that pace, it will take over 27 years to make 100,000 of them. SpaceX will have to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity to reach its ambitious goals. Also, while SpaceX uses its partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets to launch its V2 Starlink satellites into space as of now -- with the rocket capable of carrying up to 29 per trip -- the Gen3 Starlink satellites are much bigger. That's another reason why SpaceX developed Starship, a next-gen, fully reusable rocket with a much bigger payload capacity.
Starship is still in the flight-test phase, but it is clearly central to SpaceX's future, including its space travel ambitions and its ability to substantially expand Starlink's reach.
Is the stock a buy? Improving and expanding its Starlink business could make SpaceX a much more profitable company in the long run, but it still needs regulatory approval for its constellation of 100,000 satellites. And then it will have to figure out the logistics of getting them into space in a reasonable time frame. These aren't insurmountable issues, but the company could encounter setbacks, launch delays, or other potential headwinds with its plans. Investors need to factor all that in.
Further, several other companies are working hard to compete with SpaceX's Starlink (and other business segments, for that matter). SpaceX might be the runaway leader right now -- no company has nearly as many satellites in orbit -- but that could change in the long run. So, although the bulls are right that SpaceX's opportunities are massive, there is plenty of risk as well, and my view is that the stock is a buy, but at a much lower price. That's why I'd wait for a steeper pullback before initiating a position.
There's a strong case to be made that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), better known as SpaceX, is the most hyped initial public offering (IPO) of all time. It raised a record $75 billion during its IPO, hitting the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion -- making it one of the world's most valuable companies.
There are tons of people excited about SpaceX as a company, but there are also tons of people who are only excited about the stock and how much money it could potentially make them. They see CEO Elon Musk as a visionary who made plenty of millionaires through Tesla (TSLA +0.36%) and wonder if SpaceX is on that same path.
Image source: Getty Images.
Two questions that may guide the answer Two key factors will heavily influence whether or not a stock can be a millionaire maker: How much someone can initially invest and how much time they have to stay invested in the stock.
If you have $800,000 to invest in a stock, it's much easier to hit the million-dollar mark, since the investment only needs to grow 25%, compared with having $100,000 to invest and needing it to grow tenfold. The same goes for timing. If you have $100,000 to invest and 20 years on your side, the chances of hitting the million-dollar mark are much higher than if you were trying to accomplish it in five years.
So, which is most important in SpaceX's case?
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The numbers don't currently work in SpaceX's favor The average investor is much more likely to have 20 years to invest than to have hundreds of thousands to invest in a lump sum. So, for the sake of this example, we'll assume someone has $50,000 to invest in SpaceX right now (which is still a lot, to be fair), meaning their investment would need to grow by 20x to reach $1 million.
At the time of this writing, SpaceX is valued at $1.82 trillion, so increasing its value by 20x would put it at $36.4 trillion. Some Wall Street analysts have said they see SpaceX's valuation reaching the $30 trillion ballpark in the next 15 to 20 years, so it's not impossible by any means. However, it's very unlikely, in my opinion.
SpaceX's initial large valuation works against it. This isn't a situation like Tesla, whose initial valuation was $1.7 billion when it went public in June 2010. It's much easier to increase 20x in valuation to reach $34 billion from there than it is when you're starting from nearly $2 trillion.
A $5,000 investment in Tesla during its IPO would be worth over $1.2 million today -- with most gains coming after 2020 -- but I don't see that happening with SpaceX.
TSLA data by YCharts
SpaceX needs to deliver on ambitious projects I do not doubt that SpaceX will eventually make some retail investors millionaires (it has already made plenty of private investors millionaires). Some people have large lump sums to invest, and others realistically have at least 30 years of investing ahead of them to take advantage of compounding growth.
However, I don't believe it will happen for the average investor anytime in the next decade or so.
SpaceX's business is solid right now, as the largest space launch company, owner of lucrative AI infrastructure, and with a flourishing Starlink business, but that's not what will make the average investor a millionaire. It's going to take delivering on very ambitious projects, such as space data centers, and growing into what SpaceX has predicted is the largest total addressable market in history ($28.5 trillion).
Of course, we can never predict how the stock market will perform, and anything is possible, but realistically, investors are better off looking elsewhere for a millionaire-maker stock. And it's likely not one that's currently valued in the trillions.
Now that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.26%), aka SpaceX, is finally a public company, individual investors can finally invest in the crown jewel of Elon Musk's business empire in a straightforward way. It's a two-for-one space and artificial intelligence (AI) juggernaut, a unique company that's riding two of Wall Street's hottest growth trends.
But buying SpaceX stock might not be the smartest way to invest right now. The intense hype, excitement, and a low initial float have combined to push SpaceX to an astronomical valuation. If you buy shares now, they could prove a drag on your portfolio if SpaceX cannot sustain its lofty premium.
Instead, consider getting your exposure to SpaceX through an exchange-traded fund (ETF), such as the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ +1.28%).
Image source: Getty Images.
More diversified exposure that can grow The Invesco QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100, one of the U.S. stock market's most prominent indexes. SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, less than a month after its IPO. When you buy a share of the Invesco QQQ, you're getting a little slice of SpaceX stock, plus exposure to more than 100 other top U.S. companies.
That diversification helps protect your portfolio from the risk of SpaceX stock collapsing. If you're interested in SpaceX for its AI upside, the Invesco QQQ still aligns with that theme. The technology sector currently accounts for about 68% of the ETF, with Nvidia, Micron, Microsoft, and Tesla among its top holdings.
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The Nasdaq-100 weights the position of each of its components based on its percentage of publicly available shares -- i.e, its float. So despite SpaceX's massive market cap, the stock has started at approximately 1% of the index because its float when it IPOed was only roughly 5%. However, SpaceX's float will increase as the lockup periods for its pre-IPO stakeholders expire over the next year, so it will gradually become a larger component of the Invesco QQQ. That will provide a nice incremental ramp-up period, which could prove more comfortable for investors than jumping into the stock with both feet.
Diversified, but not totally risk-free Investing in SpaceX via the Invesco QQQ could protect investors from SpaceX's volatility, but the ETF's value fluctuates too. The AI boom has launched many tech stocks on extraordinary trajectories, but it's impossible to know how long their gains will last. Things could unravel quickly in the AI sector, especially if the hyperscalers and neoclouds pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers pull back on their capital expenditures.
Even a well-diversified bucket of tech stocks can suffer nasty pullbacks when the economy or the stock market turns south.
QQQ data by YCharts.
Technology is playing an increasingly central role in modern life and the global economy. A tech-focused investment strategy makes sense, especially over the long term, as AI, space, and other emerging industries mature. Just make sure you're not leaning more into the tech sector with your portfolio than you realize.
SpaceX SPCX shares rose about 1.5% on Tuesday, recovering modestly after a recent selloff that brought the stock close to its initial public offering price, as a broader market rally and a fresh bullish analyst initiation supported sentiment.
The stock traded around $141 after falling about 4% on Monday. Despite the rebound, shares remained only slightly above the company's $135 IPO price.
The broader market also advanced after June inflation data came in weaker than expected.
The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around the flatline.
The consumer price index fell 0.4% in June from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.5%.
Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly decline of 0.1% and an annual inflation rate of 3.8%.
Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, with shares opening at $150 the following day.
The stock climbed as high as $225.64 on June 16 before retreating nearly 40% from that peak. On Monday, shares fell as low as $136.78, narrowly remaining above the IPO price.
The decline has come despite broadly positive sentiment from Wall Street analysts.
Approximately 80% of analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a Buy, compared with a typical Buy-rating ratio of 55% to 60% for S&P 500 companies.
The average analyst price target stands at about $240 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $3 trillion.
Several Wall Street firms have also outlined long-term growth scenarios for the company based on expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses.
On Tuesday, Evercore ISI initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target.
Analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as "an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity."
According to Evercore, the company has built a vertically integrated business that has established a near-monopoly on orbital access through reusable, low-cost launch technology.
The firm projects revenue and EBITDA to compound at 106% and 157%, respectively, through 2028, while forecasting margin expansion from 35% to 69%.
SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in revenue and $3.95 billion in EBITDA in 2025.
Evercore said several milestones will be important in validating its long-term investment thesis.
The firm pointed to expected progress in Starship payload delivery during the second half of 2026, continued Starlink broadband expansion through 2026 and 2027, and the development of the company's mobile strategy between 2027 and 2029.
Evercore also cited terrestrial compute growth through 2028, orbital compute viability beyond 2029, and enterprise adoption of Grok and Cursor between 2026 and 2028 as additional milestones investors should monitor.
Earlier this week, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.19%), better known as SpaceX, made its market debut just a few days ago, but it's already a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The index is composed of the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Ordinarily, there would be a three-month waiting period. Additionally, the company would be required to float at least 10% of shares on the public market. However, the index changed its rules ahead of SpaceX's IPO to allow inclusion after just 15 trading days and with a smaller float.
Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is notable because it creates forced buyers through index funds like the popular Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ +1.28%). That could help support the stock price and push it higher. To that end, it may be worth examining how prior index entrants performed to gauge what could be in store for SpaceX stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
Despite the growing amount of capital dedicated to index investing, inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index doesn't automatically produce excellent results for new stocks. The Nasdaq typically announces index inclusion several days before it actually adds a stock to the index. That can result in some investors front-running the perceived forced buying by index funds and portfolio managers once the stock is added to the index. As a result, the positive effect of being added to the Nasdaq-100 may already be priced into the stock by the time it joins the index.
Unfortunately, recent history indicates that, on average, new entrants into the index underperform the Invesco QQQ Trust index fund in the three-month, 12-month, and two-year periods following their entry. The table below shows new entrants into the Nasdaq-100 from 2020 through spring 2026 and their performance relative to the QQQ index fund.
Effective DateCompany3-Month Relative Performance12-Month Relative Performance2-Year Relative Performance4/20/2020Dexcom9%(23%)(6%)4/30/2020Zoom Communications45%41%(52%)6/22/2020Docusign10%19%(68%)10/19/2020Keurig Dr Pepper(1%)(10%)36%12/21/2020American Electric Power(1%)(15%)30%12/21/2020Marvell Technology(2%)44%(7%)12/21/2020Match Group(2%)(34%)(70%)12/21/2020Okta(22%)(34%)(72%)12/21/2020Peloton Interactive(23%)(77%)(91%)12/21/2020Atlassian(12%)13%(35%)8/26/2021CrowdStrike (20%)(12%)(43%)12/20/2021Airbnb16%(22%)(12%)12/20/2021Fortinet5%7%(21%)12/20/2021Palo Alto Networks19%22%65%12/20/2021Lucid Group(30%)(74%)(89%)12/20/2021Zscaler(20%)(47%)(31%)12/20/2021Datadog(6%)(36%)(32%)11/21/2022Enphase Energy(38%)(77%)(89%)12/19/2022Costar Group(23%)(24%)(51%)12/19/2022Rivian Automotive(48%)(29%)(65%)12/19/2022Warner Bros Discovery30%(19%)(40%)12/19/2022GlobalFoundries(1%)(34%)(63%)12/19/2022Baker Hughes Co(15%)(19%)(25%)12/19/2022Diamondback Energy(18%)(22%)(40%)7/17/2023The Trade Desk(5%)(13%)(42%)12/18/2023Coca-Cola Europacific Partners2%(10%)(6%)12/18/2023CDW3%(40%)(57%)12/18/2023DoorDash20%33%48%12/18/2023MongoDB(21%)(52%)(34%)12/18/2023Roper Technologies(6%)(25%)(46%)12/18/2023Take-Two Interactive(16%)(12%)1%3/18/2024Linde PLC(15%)(12%)(23%)11/18/2024AppLovin62%52%N/A12/23/2024Palantir Technologies22%102%N/A12/23/2024Strategy(10%)(62%)N/A12/23/2024Axon Enterprise(4%)(20%)N/A12/22/2025Alnylam Pharmaceuticals(17%)N/AN/A12/22/2025Ferrovial Se(2%)N/AN/A12/22/2025Insmed(18%)N/AN/A12/22/2025Monolithic Power Systems21%N/AN/A12/22/2025Seagate Technology Holdings47%N/AN/A12/22/2025Western Digital72%N/AN/A1/20/2026Walmart1%N/AN/AAverage (0.27%)(15%)(32%) Data sources: Nasdaq, Google Finance. Calculations by Author.
As you can see, relative performance for new entrants in the first few months of trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 can vary widely. On average, however, new entrants perform roughly in line with the rest of the index during their first three months, according to my calculations.
Over a full-year period and beyond, however, new entrants don't hold up as well as the stalwart companies in the index. Average underperformance over the first year is 15%, and the average stock underperforms the QQQ index fund by 32% in the two years following its addition to the Nasdaq-100.
While there's plenty of room for SpaceX to outperform the averages, the numbers should serve as a cautionary note for investors. There's another big reason investors should remain cautious with SpaceX stock.
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Will index inclusion mitigate the downward pressure on the stock? One big overhang for SpaceX stock is the massive number of shares that could enter the market over the next year. SpaceX issued less than 5% of its shares in its IPO, requiring Nasdaq to rewrite the rules to include it in the index. But that means 95% of the shares will become available to sell over the next year, in various tranches. CEO Elon Musk has said he has no plans to sell any of his shares, which account for roughly 45% of the company's value. Still, around 10 times the amount sold in the IPO could be for sale over the coming months.
As a member of the Nasdaq-100 and several other indexes, SpaceX will have some forced buyers as lockup periods expire and the float increases. Nonetheless, selling is likely to weigh on the share price over the next year. This is a special instance, as SpaceX was fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100. So, there's no telling just how well the index funds and portfolio managers benchmarked to the index will take the selling pressure.
However, investors should also note that SpaceX's valuation is extremely high relative to its earnings and revenue. The long-term returns from SpaceX don't depend so much on its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, but on its ability to outperform the already high expectations for the company over the next five to 10 years. The odds are against it, but that's never stopped Elon Musk before.
Adam Levy has positions in Airbnb and DexCom. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Atlassian, Axon Enterprise, CoStar Group, CrowdStrike, Datadog, Docusign, DoorDash, Ferrovial Se, Fortinet, GlobalFoundries, Marvell Technology, MongoDB, Monolithic Power Systems, Okta, Palantir Technologies, Peloton Interactive, Take-Two Interactive Software, The Trade Desk, Walmart, Warner Bros. Discovery, Western Digital, Zoom Communications, and Zscaler. The Motley Fool recommends DexCom, Enphase Energy, Linde, Match Group, Palo Alto Networks, and Roper Technologies and recommends the following options: long January 2027 $65 calls on DexCom and short January 2027 $75 calls on DexCom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Global conflicts have a way of reshaping investment stories overnight. Companies once viewed as pure technology or growth plays can suddenly find themselves caught between governments, militaries, and international diplomacy. That doesn’t necessarily change their long-term prospects, but it does change the risks investors need to price in.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has spent years building one of the world’s most valuable businesses through launch services and Starlink satellite internet. Now, the company is facing a challenge that has little to do with engineering and everything to do with geopolitics.
Iran’s Threat Changes The Conversation According to CNBC, citing Iran’s state-affiliated Fars News Agency, Tehran now considers all of Elon Musk’s companies operating in the Middle East to be military targets as retaliation against the U.S. The statement specifically identified SpaceX’s Starlink infrastructure, including a regional ground station, because of its alleged support for U.S. and Israeli military operations.
To put that into perspective, SpaceX is no longer just a commercial launch provider. Through Starlink, it has become a critical communications platform for governments, militaries, businesses, and emergency responders around the world. That dual-use nature — serving both civilian and defense customers — increasingly places the company alongside traditional defense contractors whenever geopolitical tensions rise.
Ironically, that’s also one reason investors have been so enthusiastic about SpaceX. Government demand tends to be durable.
Company Primary Business Key Competitive Strength SpaceX Launch services, Starlink broadband Lowest launch costs and largest satellite network Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) Small satellite launches Dedicated launch services for smaller payloads Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Project Kuiper Satellite broadband Backed by Amazon’s financial resources Viasat (NASDAQ:VSAT) Satellite communications Established commercial and government customers Granted, Iran’s announcement does not mean attacks will occur, nor does it suggest SpaceX’s global operations face an immediate disruption. Most of the company’s critical manufacturing and launch facilities remain in the U.S.
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That said, geopolitical threats create costs even when nothing happens. Companies may face higher insurance expenses, additional security investments, operational contingencies, or delays expanding infrastructure in sensitive regions. Those are risks investors rarely model until they become unavoidable.
The Investment Thesis Hasn’t Broken Surprisingly, the same factors drawing geopolitical attention are also reinforcing SpaceX’s competitive advantages.
Governments increasingly rely on commercial space companies rather than building every capability internally. That trend has expanded SpaceX’s addressable market across defense launches, satellite communications, and intelligence services. In many respects, becoming strategically important strengthens long-term demand even as it introduces new political risks.
The key difference for investors is that SpaceX should no longer be viewed solely as a high-growth technology company. It increasingly resembles a hybrid of a technology platform, aerospace leader, and defense contractor.
Key Takeaway In short, Iran’s threat adds another layer of uncertainty, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter SpaceX’s long-term investment case. Investors should recognize that geopolitical exposure is now part of the company’s business model, just as it is for many major defense firms.
Regardless, SpaceX’s dominant launch position, Starlink’s expanding customer base, and growing government relationships remain the primary drivers of its long-term value. The headlines may grow more unsettling, but unless those risks begin affecting revenue, contracts, or operations, they are unlikely to outweigh the company’s powerful competitive advantages.
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Since Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.34%) debuted on the stock market on June 12, it has been on a rollercoaster ride. SpaceX, as it is better known, saw an expected jump in its first couple of trading days because of what was clearly high demand for the stock, but it is now down over 28% from its June 16 high (as of the July 13 market open).
SpaceX's stock is likely to be a roller-coaster ride for the foreseeable future, but investors are now getting exposure to it through one of the market's most popular ETFs. Some investors appreciate the newly added holding, while others aren't too keen. In either case, does SpaceX's addition position it to be one of the best ETFs to hold this year?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The Nasdaq makes a special case The Invesco Nasdaq QQQ ETF (QQQM +0.96%) is now many investors' introduction to SpaceX. The Nasdaq-100 is an index that tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Since SpaceX checks both of those boxes, it's officially in the index -- but much quicker than any other company has before.
Typically, to be included in the Nasdaq-100, a company must have traded for three months and meet trading volume requirements. The Nasdaq changed those requirements to make it easier to usher SpaceX into the index. Now, a company must only trade for 15 days, which made SpaceX eligible for the index on July 6.
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Where will SpaceX fit in the Nasdaq-100? Although QQQM isn't a pure-play tech ETF, it's dominated by tech companies. Here are its top 10 holdings as of July 10:
Rank/CompanyPercentage of QQQM Portfolio1. Nvidia8.01%2. Apple7.27%3. Micron Technology4.79%4. Microsoft4.49%5. Amazon4.14%6. Advanced Micro Devices3.94%7. Alphabet (Class A)3.27%8. Tesla3.20%9. Meta Platforms3.11%10. Alphabet (Class C)3.04% Data source: Invesco.
As of market open on July 13, SpaceX is the sixth-most-valuable company on this list, but it won't be weighted that way. The weighting is based on a company's float (shares available to the general public), and since SpaceX's is very small right now (around 4%), it won't jump ahead of companies like Tesla and Meta, which have lower market caps. SpaceX's percentage in QQQM is currently 1.21%.
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Is QQQM the best investment of 2026? SpaceX aside, QQQM is one of the best ETFs if you're looking for lots of tech exposure without being fully dependent on the sector. It's 68.5% tech stocks, so there's still a slight hedge if the sector hits a rough period, which isn't far-fetched considering how expensive tech stocks have become.
If we're only using performance to define the "best" investment this year, then QQQM likely won't be the winner. So far, though, it's up 18.3%, which is still a great return.
If you're looking for an ETF that can consistently outperform the market over the long run, then QQQM should be right up your alley. It has historically done so and is built to continue doing so (though nothing is guaranteed in the stock market). Let that be the reason you invest, not because of SpaceX's new entry.
Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Evercore ISI has launched coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, adding a high-profile bull voice just as the newly public shares cool off. The call lands with the stock down 13.27% over the past week and 13.55% over the past month, giving retirement-focused investors a fresh institutional data point to weigh against near-term volatility. The takeaway: Wall Street is beginning to formalize a long-duration bull case on SpaceX stock even after its post-IPO pullback.
Ticker Company Firm Action New Rating New Target SPCX SpaceX Evercore ISI Initiation Outperform $230 The Analyst’s Case Evercore ISI frames SpaceX as “an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity”, while conceding there is “a great deal left to prove out” and that the feasibility of certain ambitions and timelines can be debated. That balance matters. The firm is signaling conviction with acknowledged execution risk.
The financial spine of the thesis is aggressive with Evercore modeling revenue and EBITDA compounding at 106% and 157% through 2028, and argues growth “can accelerate rather than fade as the decade wears on.” Those are Evercore’s numbers, not ours, but they explain how the firm justifies its $230 target on a stock this large.
Company Snapshot SpaceX is a vertically integrated space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence company founded in 2002. It operates the Falcon and Starship launch systems and, since 2023, has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year. Its Starlink network runs approximately 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, serving customers across 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In early 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI, formally adding AI as a business pillar.
Why the Move Matters Now SPCX carries a market capitalization of roughly $1.08 trillion, yet the stock has just given back double digits in short order. A bulge-bracket initiation at Outperform with a $230 target, framed as a standard analyst price target rather than a calendar-year promise, is the kind of signal that can reset the conversation from post-IPO indigestion to structural upside.
Sentiment data reinforces the setup. Our proprietary look at sentiment has Reddit’s weekly read on SPCX sits at 57 (neutral), with recent debate centered on lockup unlocks and emerging launch competition from Japan. A credible bull note gives long-term holders something concrete to anchor to.
What It Means for Your Portfolio For growth focused investors, the Evercore ISI price target raised the ceiling of the visible bull case without erasing the risks the firm itself flagged. SpaceX stock remains a high-volatility, execution-dependent name where Starlink scaling, launch cadence, and xAI integration have to deliver. The analyst upgrade tone here is confident yet risk-aware, and that is the right frame for position sizing. Treat the $230 target as one informed view among several, and let the compounding thesis Evercore laid out be tested by the numbers SpaceX actually reports.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has given back its post-IPO gains, but the round trip toward the offering price is exactly why I’m sharpening my pencil. The stock priced at $135 on June 12, 2026, popped to an intraday peak of $225.64, and now trades near where it started.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for SpaceX is $259.42, implying roughly 86% upside over the next 12 months. The model’s rating carries moderate confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $139.14 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $259.42 Upside 86.4% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% From $225 to $139 in Four Weeks SPCX has fallen 13.55% in the past month and 13.27% in the past week, closing Monday at $139.14 after a 4.24% single-day slide. That puts the stock near the $135 IPO price and roughly 38% below its intraday high.
The Reddit thread “SPCX first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float” captures the near-term overhang. Retail is also focused on Japan’s successful rocket landing, which challenged the “competition is years away” thesis. SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, and the $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation left the float thin.
The Case for $282+ Bulls have plenty to work with. Starlink is scaling toward millions of customers across 164 countries from a constellation of roughly 9,600 satellites. The xAI acquisition in early 2026 layered a frontier AI model onto the platform, giving SPCX a seat in the hyperscaler conversation. Jim Cramer noted the combined entity “could be seeking a valuation of over $2 trillion.”
Our bull case points to $282.19 over 12 months, driven by Starlink subscriber growth, Starship cadence, and monetization of satellite-to-mobile coverage across roughly 30 countries. Analyst consensus alone at $242.22 implies 74% upside.
What Could Go Wrong The biggest near-term worry is dilution. Reddit flagged that the first major lockup unlock is “bigger than the entire IPO float,”. Forward EPS of -$0.70 means the market is paying up for a business still spending more than it earns.
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Cramer argued it is “very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation” for a money-losing company. Our bear case pegs downside at $218.04. Bulls counter that those losses reflect heavy capex on Starship, xAI compute, and satellite manufacturing, all of which underpin the multi-year growth story.
How SpaceX Compares to Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) is the cleanest US-listed launch peer. Rocket Lab posted Q1 2026 revenue of $200.35 million (up 63.5% year over year) with backlog at $2.20 billion and a market cap near $44 billion. The stock trades at roughly 55x trailing sales, while SpaceX at $259 would sit closer to 19x its $18.7 billion 2025 revenue. Our target looks conservative on a price-to-sales basis.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is the direct-to-device satellite counterpoint to Starlink. ASTS carries a $21 billion market cap on 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, a triple-digit sales multiple for a pre-commercial network. Starlink already generates a large share of SPCX’s revenue at scale, framing the 24/7 Wall St. price target as reasonable.
Where the Setup Gets Interesting: $135 My line in the sand is the IPO price. At $135, buyers get in flat to the largest institutional book of 2026 with an analyst target implying 74% upside and a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $259.42 pointing higher.
The setup looks constructive if SPCX holds the IPO floor through the lockup window. It looks risky if the stock breaks $130 on heavy volume, signaling the unlock is overwhelming demand. Confidence is moderate at 50%, but the risk/reward at these levels is finally interesting.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $182 2027 $256 2028 $359 2029 $504 2030 $708 These projections assume SpaceX continues scaling Starlink subscribers, executes on Starship cadence, and monetizes xAI. Significant upside or downside could result from lockup dynamics, a Starship setback, or step-change in launch competition.
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Elon Musk has had some pretty exciting, ambitious things to say about the future of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), but perhaps his more recent comments about the company’s value one day eclipsing the value of Earth itself take the cake for the most shocking and bullish thing he’s said about the space titan, which is pretty much in a space race against itself at this point.
Here come the sky-high price targets With analyst price targets flowing in from across the board, with $800 per-share targets, and a shocking $900 bull target from the likes of Citigroup (NYSE:C | C Price Prediction), questions linger as to whether Elon Musk’s latest words offer anything more than hype. While a valuation north of $11 trillion for SpaceX seems outrageous, I certainly wouldn’t count it out if Elon Musk manages to make orbital data centers and other emerging space-based businesses work.
From space tourism to asteroid mining, it’s pretty easy to dismiss such potential ventures as nothing more than a work of science fiction. Then again, the company is shooting to take the fiction out of science fiction, so I get why so many investors are more than willing to give Elon Musk the benefit of the doubt in these earlier days.
Between the Elon Musk fans who just need to have a piece and growth investors who are feeling a sense of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), the case for buying in spite of the questionable valuation metrics is quite strong. But even the most exciting company in the world can be a bad bet if one overpays.
If orbital data centers don’t work out in a timeline the market deems as acceptable, it’s hard to tell just where SpaceX shares could find themselves. Can a crash-landing be ruled out? I’m not so sure, but the bull case, in my view, is the reason to make the leap of faith with the name.
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Maybe not more than Earth, but a $10-12 trillion valuation can’t be ruled out Of course, it’s hard to tell how serious Elon Musk was when he brought up the possibility of the company being more than the rest of the Earth combined. The math doesn’t quite add up, even in a bull-case scenario, like the one outlined by Citi. If we’re talking about the next few centuries, though, perhaps anything is possible. But, of course, not all that many investors will probably want to hang onto a stock for that long!
In my view, $10-12 trillion might be the ceiling for the shares. As a part of Citi’s bull case, Starship needs to get going and be at full scale. It’ll also need SpaceX to floor it with Starlink and orbital data centers to achieve an untouchable monopoly (or a near-monopoly).
Add the AI factor into the equation, and the potential for a Moon base with robot workers and a railgun to launch spacecraft from a lunar landing, sure, I suppose SpaceX could have quite a ways to go from here, as the company looks to capture that sky-high total addressable market (TAM) the firm outlined.
The bottom line While I’ll admit that shares are starting to look more tempting as they make a round trip back to the $135 per-share IPO price, I do think that SpaceX is a super-high-risk/high-reward kind of proposition that’s only fit for true believers of Elon Musk.
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Frontier Airlines and four other budget carriers with more than 1,000 planes between them will debut in-flight Wi-Fi early next year from SpaceX's Starlink, another win for the satellite internet provider.
Frontier's first Airbus plane equipped with Starlink internet will roll out in early 2027, the airline said Tuesday. CNBC reported in 2022 that Frontier was in talks with Starlink to add its first in-flight Wi-Fi service.
A Frontier spokeswoman declined to say whether flyers could use the service for free. Major airlines that have signed deals with Starlink have been offering Wi-Fi complimentary for loyalty program members.
Frontier was one of the last U.S. holdouts to add Wi-Fi. Former CEO Barry Biffle previously said the airline was hesitant to to add weight to its planes with the equipment it would need for the service.
Starlink, a part of Elon Musk's SpaceX, has signed deals with more than 40 carriers around the world, including United Airlines and American Airlines, as airlines ramp up their in-flight services and customers grow to expect at-home-quality internet in the sky. The airlines declined to disclose the terms of the agreements. SpaceX didn't immediately comment.
The carriers in the latest Starlink deal — Frontier, Mexico's Volaris, European budget carrier Wizz, Chile's Jetsmart, and the Philippines' Cebu Pacific — all share private equity firm Indigo Partners as an investor, which is led by serial airline investor Bill Franke.
Budget carriers have been under pressure to go upmarket as larger rivals post revenue growth from the front of the cabin, upending discounters' once-profitable model of no-frills seating and amenities. Frontier is planning to debut first-class seats next year.
Read more CNBC airline newsDelta launches ‘basic business’ fares without lounge access, seat selectionRecord heat, crowds drive offseason boom in international travelDelta expects higher airfare to last, bringing 2026 profit goal in reach'Bring 'em on': Delta wants United's crown over the Pacific, tooSpirit's collapse, high fuel prices test limits of summer vacation spendingMeet the pilots flying Spirit Airlines' yellow jets to the desert
Frontier airlines planes are parked at the boarding gates at Tampa International Airport in Tampa, Florida, U.S., July 19, 2024. REUTERS/Octavio Jones/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Frontier Airlines (ULCC.O), opens new tab said on Tuesday it will launch in-flight Wi-Fi using SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab Starlink satellite internet and start installing it across its fleet in early 2027.
The Denver-based airline is the first ultra-low-cost U.S. carrier to sign on with Elon Musk's Starlink as the company competes with Amazon's (AMZN.O), opens new tab Kuiper for airline customers to provide in-flight Wi-Fi.
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Airlines are increasingly turning to premium amenities to differentiate themselves from competitors. Frontier's Starlink rollout follows the airline's introduction of first-class seating and loyalty program changes aimed at winning over higher spenders.
"We're continuing to invest in the products and services that matter most to our customers," Chief Executive Officer Jimmy Dempsey said in a statement.
The carrier did not disclose the terms of the deal. Installing Starlink can require a substantial investment, running into the hundreds of millions of dollars for large fleets.
Frontier is among five Indigo Partners portfolio airlines that expect to install Starlink on more than 1,000 aircraft.
Still, not all low-cost carriers are convinced the economics work. Ryanair (RYA.I), opens new tab and EasyJet (EZJ.L), opens new tab have flagged the costs associated with in-flight connectivity, highlighting the debate over whether premium products can generate enough additional revenue to justify the investment for budget carriers.
Starlink uses thousands of low-Earth-orbit satellites, which generally provide faster connections and lower latency than traditional geostationary satellite systems.
Reporting by Doyinsola Oladipo in New York; Editing by Sonali Paul
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joel Shulman says SpaceX (SPCX) is his firm's top holding and believes the current post-sell-off price is a good buying opportunity. He makes the case that the Elon Musk-led company is a "20-year hold.
When it comes to space stocks, Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) is clearly the big kahuna. After all, the company just completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, rapidly joining the $1 trillion-plus market capitalization club in the process. However, the broader space economy extends beyond a single company.
That’s why it pays to be choosy with space-related ETFs. On that note, a new offering may be worthy of closer examination by investors. The WisdomTree Space Economy Fund (WSPC) debuted last week. Indeed, the new actively managed ETF is a solid proxy for SpaceX. It allocates 14.19% of its weight to that marquee space stock, but taps into the broader space ecosystem.
WSPC’s breadth is relevant to long-term investors. By some estimates, the broader space economy could be valued at $1 trillion (or more) in less than a decade.
WSPC Supported by Bright Fundamental Outlook Home to approximately 50 stocks, the newly minted WSPC is positioned to benefit as space becomes increasingly commercialized. The federal government’s increasing related partnerships with private enterprise could help the ETF, too.
“Private companies are playing an increasingly central role, partnering with NASA while also investing heavily to unlock the commercial potential of space. The number of objects launched into orbit, including satellites and rockets, has grown at an annual rate of roughly 20% between 2020 and 2025,” noted Morgan Stanley.
There’s bipartisan support for expanding U.S. space leadership and recognition that space is central to national security. Political winds often alter direction, but there appears to be consistency on the space front. At a minimum, the current administration is committed to space funding.
“The Trump Administration has proposed a record $1.5 trillion in defense spending for 2027, including a 77% increase in the Space Force budget—from $40 billion this year to $71 billion. Through the Artemis program, NASA aims to return humans to the moon in 2028 and build a base for continued lunar operations,” added Morgan Stanley.
WSPC heavily tilts toward communication services and industrial stocks— sensible sector weights when considering the space objective. The new ETF charges 0.75% per year.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has erased approximately $1.2 trillion in market value within a month of its historic public debut, as a sharp selloff reversed much of the stock’s post-IPO rally.
The aerospace and satellite communications company went public on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share, briefly reaching a market capitalization of nearly $2.9 trillion just four days later.
However, the stock has since fallen sharply, reducing its valuation to about $1.83 trillion at Monday’s close.
The decline reflects growing investor concerns over SpaceX’s valuation following its record-breaking IPO and raises questions about whether the company’s long-term growth prospects can justify its current market capitalization.
Investor enthusiasm initially propelled SpaceX shares above $225 on June 16, making the company one of the world’s most valuable publicly traded firms.
The rally proved short-lived, with the stock entering a sustained downtrend marked by several steep daily declines, including a 16% drop in a single session.
By July 13, SpaceX shares closed at $139 after falling more than 4% on the day, marking a new post-IPO low. At current levels, the stock trades only slightly above its $135 IPO price, leaving many investors who bought during the initial surge facing significant losses.
SpaceX one-month stock price chart. Source: Finbold Why SpaceX stock is declining The selloff comes as investors reassess SpaceX’s valuation and financial outlook after the excitement surrounding its market debut.
The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up about 33% year-over-year, but reported a net loss of $4.9 billion as heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and Starship development weighed on profitability.
Starlink remains the company’s primary profit driver, contributing roughly $11.4 billion in revenue and serving more than 10.3 million subscribers as of the first quarter of 2026.
Analysts expect SpaceX revenue to reach between $34 billion and $43 billion this year, supported by continued subscriber growth and expanding AI compute contracts.
At the same time, the Federal Aviation Administration has closed its investigation into the Starship Flight 12 anomaly, clearing the way for Starship Flight 13 as early as July 16.
The mission is expected to deploy advanced Starlink V3 satellites and conduct additional reusability tests critical to SpaceX’s long-term growth strategy.
At the same time, concerns remain over insider share unlocks expected after second-quarter earnings in August, which could significantly increase the public float and add selling pressure.
Despite the sharp decline, SpaceX remains one of the world’s largest publicly traded companies. The stock’s next move will likely depend on the success of upcoming Starship milestones, Starlink’s continued expansion, AI revenue growth, and the company’s ability to balance aggressive investment with a path to profitability.
When a company's valuation is high and wildly above what its fundamentals justify, that's a clear sign that expectations are high. While that can be an encouraging sign that there is a ton of growth likely ahead for the business, it also signifies risk, because if it falls short and the growth story unravels, the stock could be poised for a significant sell-off.
One company whose valuation hinges on its growth story is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.75%), which is often referred to as just SpaceX. Its market cap has been hovering around $2 trillion since its shares went public about a month ago. It has some tremendous growth opportunities, and here's just how big analysts believe the business will get in five years.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's revenue could top $565 billion by 2031 In recent years, there has been some solid growth, but nothing like what analysts expect from the company in the future. From $10.4 billion in revenue in 2023, the company's top line would rise by 35% to just over $14 billion in 2024, and then by another 33% in 2025, totaling $18.7 billion last year. That's a strong growth rate, but if analysts are right, then the company's top line could be about to take off, significantly.
The bull case around SpaceX centers around its growth potential. Today, it trades at around 100 times its trailing revenue, but if the business gets much larger in the future, then its high valuation may be much more tenable. By 2031, Wall Street analysts project that its revenue will soar to $565 billion -- that's more than 30 times what it achieved this past year. Those kinds of numbers would make it among the largest companies in terms of revenue. E-commerce giant Amazon is the leader today, with its revenue totaling $743 billion over its past four quarters.
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Expectations are high, but so too is the risk SpaceX has some mammoth opportunities in artificial intelligence, space, and telecom. The problem, however, is that kind of significant growth means expectations are going to be through the roof for SpaceX. Not only will the company likely need to ramp up spending at a time when investors are growing more concerned about high capital expenditures, but it will also need to execute and prove that it's making the most of those investments. It's a tall task, to say the least.
Given that the stock isn't cheap, investors who buy it at its current levels aren't leaving themselves with any margin for error. While SpaceX's business may do well and achieve its lofty expectations, there's also a strong chance it falls well short of them, which is why taking a wait-and-see approach with the space stock may be the safest option right now.
One month ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 4.75%), rewrote history with its initial public offering (IPO). The $85.7 billion raised, including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripled the previous IPO record holder, Saudi Aramco.
But in kicking off IPO mania -- large language model developers Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to follow in SpaceX's footsteps -- SpaceX may also be fueling the final stages of an AI bubble that history suggests is waiting to pop.
Rarely are stock market bubble warning signs as glaring as Raymond James Financial's price target assigned to SpaceX.
Image source: Getty Images.
Wall Street's high-water price target foresees SpaceX reaching $800 in 2031 Given that 21 underwriters helped bring SpaceX public and received shares for doing so, it should come as no surprise that Wall Street analysts have, as a whole, presented an overwhelmingly positive outlook for the company.
But Raymond James Financial analyst Brian Gesuale is a true outlier. His $800 price target by 2031 implies 451% upside, based on where SpaceX's shares ended on July 10, and assumes a valuation of roughly $10.5 trillion. For context, this would be more than double Nvidia's current market cap.
$SPCX-SPACEX COULD SOAR 440%, SAYS RAYMOND JAMES
Raymond James launched SpaceX coverage with a Strong Buy rating and a Street-high $800 target, implying 440% upside.
The bullish outlook is driven by Starship, Starlink, and SpaceX's potential as a global infrastructure giant....
-- *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 9, 2026 Gesuale foresees SpaceX's full-year sales scaling from an estimated $38.5 billion in 2026 to approximately $837 billion by 2031. More importantly, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to catapult from $17.7 billion in 2026 to $696 billion by 2031.
While there's no question that AI and the space economy are two of the hottest addressable opportunities on Wall Street, several headwinds suggest Gesuale's pie-in-the-sky price target is pure fiction and the sign of an end-stage bubble that's about to burst.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX spotlights everything wrong with Wall Street Although the stock market is a long-term wealth-creating machine, it's prone to occasional bubble-bursting events. SpaceX's current $1.91 trillion valuation and Raymond James' $800 price target for the company spotlight everything that's wrong with Wall Street over the short term.
For starters, SpaceX hasn't demonstrated that its operating model is sustainable. While satellite-based broadband services provider Starlink is profitable, AI start-up xAI -- the segment responsible for the lion's share of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion addressable market -- is burning cash as Musk's company chases AI compute capacity.
NEWS: SpaceX disclosed in its S-1 that it sees a $28.5 TRILLION total addressable market, which the company calls "the largest actionable TAM in human history." pic.twitter.com/fglJuozEqL
-- Exec Sum (@exec_sum) May 21, 2026 Elon Musk also has a terrible track record of fulfilling lofty promises and innovative expectations. As CEO of Tesla, Musk proclaimed that 1 million robotaxis would be on public roads by the end of 2020, which never happened. He's also assured investors that Level 5 full self-driving is "one year away" annually for more than a decade. Musk continually overpromises and underdelivers.
SpaceX is likely to be haunted by historical precedent, as well. No company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has sustained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any extended period. SpaceX is trading at roughly 50 times Gesuale's forecast sales for this year.
Lastly, every game-changing technology for more than three decades has navigated an early stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles have formed because investors constantly overestimate the optimization timeline of innovations. It'll likely be years before SpaceX's solutions are optimized, making Raymond James' high-water price target highly unlikely.
Elon Musk does not often admit he was wrong. But he has. Responding on X to a user who noted that SpaceX controls the computing power Anthropic depends on, and could, in theory, cut it off, Musk said he never would.
He went further, calling Anthropic the clear leader in AI and saying no rival had shipped a model as good as its Mythos and Fable systems. He expects a Mythos 2 before long.
The turn is surprising, given that last September, he wrote that winning was never a possible outcome for Anthropic. In February, after it raised $30bn at a $380bn valuation, he called its models "misanthropic and evil" and told it to fix them. Five months on, the same company is his benchmark for the field.
The praise is not free
Take the compliment at face value and it reads as rare humility. Look at the plumbing and a second motive appears.
In May, Anthropic agreed to lease the entire output of xAI's Colossus 1 data centre near Memphis, about 300 megawatts, paying roughly $1.25bn a month through 2029. That is close to $40bn flowing to Musk's side of the table. He is not just admiring Anthropic. He is billing it.
A rival who pays you $40bn is a rival worth flattering. Musk's pledge not to weaponise that dependence costs him nothing and buys goodwill with a customer he needs. The admiration may be real. It is also good business.
Playground politics?
The sharper reading sits one company over. Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 as a non-profit, left the board in 2018 after the others refused to hand him control, and has fought it since.
He sued Altman and OpenAI in 2024, accusing them of abandoning the founding mission for private gain. He sought more than $150bn in damages, Altman's removal and the unwinding of the for-profit structure.
In May, a jury threw the case out, finding Musk had waited too long to file.
He called the verdict a "calendar technicality" and vowed to appeal. By July, the feud was personal again. Musk branded Altman "Scam Altman" after Apple sued OpenAI, and Altman replied that the surest sign his new model led the field was that Musk was obsessed with him again.
Against that backdrop, crowning Anthropic the leader does double duty. It is a real judgement about the models. It is also a way to tell the market that the AI company that matters is not the one he is suing.
Both are racing to the same finish line
Timing sharpens the point. Both firms filed confidentially for stock market listings in June, within days of each other. Anthropic, valued at about $965bn in private markets, is pushing for a Nasdaq debut as early as October. It could be the first company to list at close to $1tn, and it expects its first profitable quarter, with around $559m in operating income on $10.9bn of revenue.
OpenAI, valued a little lower and still loss-making, is leaning toward 2027, wary after SpaceX's own listing spiked and then surrendered much of the gain. Altman is holding out for a $1tn price.
Here the two threads meet. Whoever lists first sets the benchmark the second is priced against. Anthropic going out ahead, blessed by Musk as the field's leader, helps fix the multiple bankers who later apply to OpenAI. Musk talking up the rival he profits from, while running down the rival he is suing, shapes the terms on which his enemy will one day face public investors.
None of this proves the praise is hollow. Musk may well think Anthropic makes the best models right now. But "wowed by the model" and "at war with OpenAI" were never competing explanations. They are the same move. The compliment serves his balance sheet and his grudge at once, and it lands in the narrow window before both labs ask the market to price them.
Space Exploration Corporation's (SPCX 4.75%) highly anticipated initial public offering raised $75 billion from investors and a total of $85.7 billion when you include the overallotment given to the investment bankers. That's a huge sum of money that the company plans to use to build its space-based operations and to support its aspirations in artificial intelligence. But investors aren't as excited about SpaceX as they once were.
SpaceX has already fallen back down to earth When SpaceX held its IPO, there was a huge amount of excitement, and the stock rose sharply for a few days. But the stock has quickly fallen back toward the IPO price. In fairness to SpaceX, that's not an unusual outcome for an IPO. However, there was so much excitement around SpaceX that the price drop warrants examination.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX was very clear in its IPO prospectus that its Starlink telecommunications business was profitable, but its space and AI operations were not. It was also upfront about the need for massive capital spending in the future to support its business goals. This is one of the reasons why the newly public company issued $25 billion in debt shortly after its IPO. That debt was rated investment-grade, which is good news, but the stock dropped after the additional capital raise.
SpaceX is a long-term investment The real problem is that Wall Street got so excited about SpaceX's IPO that it lost sight of the big picture. SpaceX is a money-losing start-up, and that's not likely to change anytime soon, given CEO Elon Musk's big plans for the business. As investor enthusiasm for the IPO wanes, the deeper business story is gaining traction. It doesn't help that the broader artificial intelligence trade is also facing increasing scrutiny from investors.
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All of that said, emotions are still the driving force here. In fact, there is a notable positive: SpaceX is being added to major indexes. That should lead to buying support for the shares. Still, the stock is best viewed as a long-term investment. The big goals of supporting space exploration and building AI data centers in space won't happen in a year. It is entirely possible that the stock falls even further before SpaceX starts to see traction on its long-term goals, even as the red ink continues to flow.
Understand what you are getting into with SpaceX If you watched the SpaceX IPO from the sidelines, you may want to keep it on your wishlist in case mercurial investors keep selling the stock. If you own SpaceX, make sure you are ready to stick with it for the long haul. If you aren't, recognizing it could mean sitting with paper losses for years, you may want to consider selling while the stock price is still hovering near the IPO price.
Let's get right to it: A $25,000 investment in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.24%) stock today could be worth over $100,000 by 2050 if revenue grows 19% annually. By the same token, the same investment in SpaceX is more likely to be worth about $28,000 by 2050 if revenue grows more moderately -- albeit still bullish -- at a rate of 13% annually.
Let's unpack these predictions.
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First, keep in mind that SpaceX carried a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation at its initial public offering (IPO), despite reporting about $19 billion in 2025 revenue. At the time of its IPO, the stock was already trading close to 100 times annual sales -- a figure that hasn't changed much, even after the stock has plummeted over 30% from its all-time high.
Under the bullish scenario, SpaceX would need to quadruple by 2050 for a $25,000 investment to hit $100,000 or more, which would imply a $7 trillion market cap. If we value that version of SpaceX at a price-to-sales ratio of about 5, then the space company would need to generate about $1.5 trillion in annual sales by that year, or almost 19% revenue growth annually.
That's not technically impossible, but it would also mean SpaceX has become the most dominant launch, satellite, and artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world. In short, very little has to go wrong, and if it does, it can't go wrong for long.
Image source: Getty Images.
Under a less bullish scenario, SpaceX's valuation would rise only modestly, from about $1.8 trillion to about $2 trillion by 2050. If, again, we assume a price-to-sales ratio of 5, SpaceX would generate about $400 billion in 2050 sales, which implies compound annual revenue growth of about 13% for the next 25 years.
That's still impressive growth, even if the concomitant growth in the stock is only modest.
These are, of course, my own figures, but they drive home the point that, however you slice it, SpaceX stock is still very pricy right now. Even as the stock nears its IPO price of $135, I think long-term investors should continue to wait. SpaceX may become one of the most important companies in the world, but at today's valuation, much of that success appears already priced in.
4:15pm: Big bank earnings up tomorrow US stocks kicked off the week on a weaker note Monday as rising tensions between the United States and Iran rattled investors, sending chip stocks sharply lower while oil prices climbed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 138 points, or 0.3%, to 52,499. The S&P 500 dropped 60 points, or 0.8%, to 7,515, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq led the declines, tumbling 408 points, or 1.6%, to 25,873.
Markets were pressured by growing geopolitical uncertainty after President Donald Trump vowed to reinstate a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and announced plans to impose a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the strategic waterway. The developments pushed Brent crude back above $82 a barrel, boosting energy stocks but weighing on the broader market as investors shifted toward safer assets.
Investors are now turning their attention to the start of second-quarter earnings season, which gets underway before Tuesday's opening bell. Results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are expected to provide the first glimpse into how corporate America is navigating a still-uncertain economic backdrop.
3:45pm: Proactive news headlines Northstar Gold Corp. (CSE:NSG) received its first reimbursement of about C$628,000 under the Surgical Mining for Critical Minerals Project to support development of its Cam Copper Zone 2 Surgical Mining initiative in Ontario. First Phosphate Corp. (CSE:PHOS, OTCQX:FRSPF, FRA:KD0, OTC:FPHOY) closed the final tranche of its non-brokered private placement, raising total gross proceeds of about C$17.7 million across two financing rounds. G Mining Ventures Corp (TSX:GMIN, OTCQX:GMINF, FRA:W97) and G2 Goldfields Inc (TSX-V:GTWO, OTCQX:GUYGF) said they expect to complete the remaining closing conditions for G Mining's acquisition of G2 by the end of July. Pinnacle Silver & Gold Corp (TSX-V:PINN, OTCQB:PSGCF, FRA:P9J) plans to raise up to C$2.2 million through a non-brokered private placement to fund exploration at its El Potrero gold-silver project in Mexico and for working capital. 2:45pm: Market movers Agenus (Agenus Inc (NASDAQ:AGEN)) shares nearly doubled after the biotechnology company announced an oversubscribed private placement of up to $340 million to advance development of its botensilimab and balstilimab immunotherapy combination for microsatellite-stable colorectal cancer. Twin Vee PowerCats (NASDAQ:VEEE) shares soared more than 370% after the company agreed to merge with a subsidiary of USFM Corporation while privatizing its marine business in a transformative transaction. First Hawaiian (NASDAQ:FHB) agreed to acquire TriCo Bancshares in a deal aimed at creating a leading Pacific banking franchise and expanding its presence from Hawaii into California. Greenfire Resources (NYSE:GFR, TSX:GFR) plans to raise at least C$575 million through a rights offering to repay bridge financing tied to its proposed acquisition of Connacher Oil and Gas. FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO) shares rose after the streaming company named former Disney+ president Alisa Bowen as chief executive officer, succeeding co-founder David Gandler. SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) shares fell sharply as investors took profits following the memory chip maker's recent Nasdaq debut and reassessed its valuation after a strong rally. 1:15pm: Markets remain calm despite Hormuz tensions US stock markets have remained remarkably calm over the prospect of a return to the US blockade of Iran, according to Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at online trading and investing platform IG, while oil prices have gained as markets weigh the potential impact on global supply.
“The US’ apparent decision to pile on the pressure on Iran by reinstating the blockade has lifted oil prices, though the reaction remains calm relative to the potential for supply disruption," Beauchamp wrote.
:Markets seem to be pricing in a resumption of negotiations in due course, given the lack of appetite for an extended standoff, but with oil stockpiles not fully rebuilt this is a risky view to take. This limited exchange of projectiles is still nowhere near the intensity of March’s conflict, leaving hope for a relatively quick resolution.”
11:55am: Altman slams Musk's 'space-based' data centers OpenAI (Unlisted:OPAI) CEO Sam Altman has criticized Elon Musk’s plans for space-based data centers, accusing the SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) (SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX)) and xAI leader of promoting an unproven technology to public market investors as the two technology executives continued their long-running dispute.
The comments came after Musk accused Altman of “taking scamming to a whole new level” in a post on X, escalating a series of public exchanges between the two billionaires that have followed their split over the direction of OpenAI.
“Homeboy you're the one selling public market investors on short-term space data centers,” Altman wrote on X, referring to SpaceX’s plans to develop orbital computing infrastructure.
Musk’s comments referenced ongoing legal disputes involving OpenAI and Altman, while Altman’s response targeted SpaceX’s plans for artificial intelligence computing satellites. SpaceX has outlined plans for a large-scale satellite network capable of supporting AI workloads, including up to one million compute satellites. The company’s AI1 satellite design is expected to support peak power levels of up to 150 kilowatts. However, the orbital data center concept remains in development and has yet to be demonstrated at scale.
Shares of SpaceX traded down about 5% on Monday at about $138, only modestly above last month’s IPO price of $135.
11:00am: Week ahead Wall Street heads into one of its busiest weeks of the summer, with second-quarter earnings season shifting into high gear alongside key inflation data and closely watched testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
The week kicks off with a flood of bank earnings. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday, offering investors an early read on loan growth, investment banking activity, consumer health and the impact of higher interest rates.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) (Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)) and Bank of New York Mellon follow on Wednesday, while Regions Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) (Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB)) report Friday.
Technology investors will also be watching closely as AI heavyweights take the spotlight. ASML reports Wednesday, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Netflix on Thursday.
Beyond earnings, investors will be parsing a packed economic calendar. Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to shape expectations for the Fed's next policy move. Warsh will deliver his semiannual testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, while the Fed's Beige Book, released Wednesday, will provide an updated snapshot of economic conditions across the country.
10am: Dow opens higher but Nasdaq falls It's a mixed open for Wall Street, with investors switching out of tech and buying more defensive names ahead of earnings season and some other market moving events later this week.
The Dow Jones has opened up 0.3%, helped by gains from the likes of Salesforce, Chevron and Apple.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq fell almost 1% as chipmakers led the declines.
Top fallers on the tech-laden index are SanDisk, Arm Holdings, Western Digital, Micron and Marvell, all dropping over 7%, with Nvidia also trading 1.4% lower, as investors take profits across the semiconductor sector.
8.25am: Nasdaq tipped to drop, as oil rebounds further US stocks are set for a weaker start to the week after last week finished on a positive note, with technology shares expected to come under the most pressure as investors balanced renewed geopolitical tensions against a busy week for inflation data and the start of bank earnings season.
Nasdaq futures were down 1.0% early on Monday, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.4% and Dow Jones futures were sitting just 0.1% lower.
The pullback follows a solid week; the S&P 500 gained more than 1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% and the Dow added 0.4%.
Monday saw oil prices climb after the US confirmed fresh military strikes on Iran aimed at reducing Tehran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI crude rose 3.5% to $73.94 a barrel, having briefly traded above $75 in the early hours.
Iran said the ceasefire was in a "crisis phase" and warned it could abandon the agreement if Washington failed to meet its commitments, maintaining that efforts with Oman to establish a mechanism for managing the strategic waterway were being hampered by the US.
The rise in oil prices weighed heavily on Asian technology stocks. South Korea's Kospi slumped almost 9%, with memory chip maker SK Hynix dropping 13% despite its strong debut on Wall Street last week, while Japan's Nikkei lost 1.9%.
European markets were roughly flat, with London's FTSE 100 down 0.3% and benchmarks for Germany and France broadly unchanged.
Investors are now turning their attention to Tuesday's US inflation report and Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's testimony to Congress. Although economists expect headline inflation to ease slightly, higher energy prices have raised doubts over how much comfort policymakers will take from the data.
Earnings season also gathers pace this week, starting with results from several major US banks tomorrow.
Since its debut as a publicly traded company roughly one month ago, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.24%) has been one of Wall Street's more volatile stocks. From its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 to its high of $225 in mid-June to its July 9 closing price of roughly $152, SpaceX (as the company is also known) has already experienced some serious highs and lows.
Concerns over this volatility have now spilled over into the fund space, where some of the world's biggest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun adding shares to their portfolios. Funds that track one of the CRSP market indexes, such as the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI 0.72%), could begin adding shares in as little as five trading days post-IPO. On July 7, SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 under its newly implemented fast-track rules for mega-IPOs.
SpaceX has around a $2 trillion market cap, making it one of the 10 largest companies in the world. It's natural to assume that the stock would also be a major part of these ETFs, and its volatility would come with it.
But it really isn't. In fact, SpaceX might not influence these ETFs nearly as much as you think.
Source: Getty Images.
SpaceX doesn't crack the top 20 of the Invesco QQQ ETF or the top 100 of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF The reason that SpaceX isn't a bigger part of these indexes is that they're weighted by free-float market cap (or the amount of publicly traded shares), not total market cap. As a percentage, SpaceX's ratio of free float to total market cap is lower than that of many stocks, giving it comparatively less influence in indexes weighted by this metric.
That dynamic shows up very clearly in the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ 1.90%), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which tracks a CRSP index.
As of July 9, SpaceX was the 21st-largest holding in the Invesco QQQ ETF, with a weight of around 1.2%. In the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, it landed in 176th place with a weight of just 0.2%.
In other words, if you're worried about elevated influence and volatility from the stock's inclusion in these indexes, you probably shouldn't be. The stock's weighting in these indexes is low enough that even a price crash will barely register as a ripple for the fund as a whole.
If you're a shareholder of either of these funds, there's no need to make any portfolio adjustments due to SpaceX's addition to them. These funds will continue to be influenced more by broad market forces than by any one company.
David Dierking has positions in Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (SPCX) has been trading publicly for a month now, and shares have since fallen below the company's IPO price. Luke Lloyd expects downside pressure to continue toward $100.
Is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.24%) stock losing its mojo?
One month after its blockbuster IPO, shares of Elon Musk's space company have come full circle, with the stock closing Monday at $139.14, barely above its "official" IPO price -- and more than $10 below where the stock began trading on IPO day.
And the latest SpaceX news is looking kind of mixed.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Once more, with feeling Good news first: The Federal Aviation Administration today closed its review of SpaceX's May Starship test flight and cleared SpaceX to test Starship again later this week. Analysts think Musk will waste no time taking the opportunity, and Starship Test Flight 13 is scheduled to take place this Thursday, July 16, at 6:45 p.m. ET.
If SpaceX succeeds in launching on time, it will mean only 55 days elapsed between Flight 12 and Flight 13 -- four times faster than the delay between Flights 11 and 12. In a note this morning, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale cited the increased "operational cadence" as reason for optimism about SpaceX stock, doubling down on his "strong buy" recommendation and predicting SpaceX stock that costs $138 and change today, will hit $800 within a year!
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Bad news next But here's the bad news: Investors aren't buying it. They sold off SpaceX stock today -- and I think China may be part of the reason.
Over the weekend, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) launched a reusable Long March 10B rocket from the Wenchang Commercial Space Launch Site on Hainan Island -- then successfully landed it at sea, catching it in a floating frame at sea. The test flight and water landing, called a "complete success," closes the technology gap between SpaceX and China.
It also arguably makes SpaceX a less valuable stock.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The artificial intelligence industry has an energy problem.
The data center infrastructure that AI technologies rely on to operate is so energy-intensive that the current electricity grid is nowhere near powerful enough to support the ongoing build-out of additional data centers.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.75%) is hoping to solve the problem by placing data centers in space, where they would enjoy significant amounts of free, continuous solar energy and lower cooling costs in the relatively low temperatures of low Earth orbit. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently said he wants the company to launch orbital data centers by 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investor sentiment toward orbital data centers is strong, as evidenced by SpaceX's $1.9 trillion valuation. Wall Street analysts see data centers in space as one of SpaceX's biggest long-term growth opportunities.
But NuScale Power (SMR 7.63%) is trying to meet AI's rising power demand through a very different strategy that could be superior to SpaceX's.
NuScale Power's terrestrial approach The Department of Energy estimates that the U.S. will see total energy demand grow by as much as 20% over the next decade. Research from the Electric Power Research Institute, meanwhile, projects that data centers could consume up to 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030, up from 4% in 2023.
NuScale Power specializes in small modular reactors, or SMRs. "When compared to traditional, large-scale [nuclear power plants], SMRs require less land, shorter construction periods, and have enhanced safety features," concludes a report from Bank of America.
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SMRs are also cheaper to build, at least until additional modules are constructed. But it's really shorter construction periods and lower land requirements that make the technology so attractive. That's because AI firms need more energy quickly, and smaller footprints mean SMRs could be co-located directly with data center infrastructure.
Only a handful of SMRs are currently in operation today. But more than 80 are now in some stage of development worldwide. And NuScale Power is the only firm in the U.S. with an approved SMR design -- at least for now.
Musk's intention to launch data centers into space by 2027 to reduce the AI industry's dependence on terrestrial energy strongly demonstrates how important and valuable this initiative is for SpaceX. But NuScale's approach is arguably more feasible and proven, while targeting roughly the same end-market opportunity.
NuScale isn't the only company looking to scale SMRs. Dozens of companies worldwide are attempting to design and sell SMR systems. But NuScale is one of only three pure-play SMR stocks available to investors, alongside Oklo and Nano Nuclear Energy, making it a unique investment opportunity for energy, AI, and SpaceX investors alike.
In a note published this week, Noble said SpaceX’s biggest challenge isn’t its triple-digit price-to-sales multiple—it’s a lockup schedule that could increase the stock’s tradable float by roughly 900% over the coming months as insider shares become eligible for sale.
SpaceX Stock: From Scarcity To SupplyNoble argues SpaceX’s post-IPO rally was driven as much by supply constraints as investor enthusiasm.
Less than 5% of the company’s shares were freely tradable when the stock debuted, he noted. Shortly afterward, Nasdaq-100 inclusion and Russell index rebalancing forced passive funds to buy billions of dollars’ worth of shares while the public float remained exceptionally small.
“The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory,” Noble wrote. That dynamic helped propel SpaceX above $225 during its first week of trading before shares began retreating.
The Calendar That MattersAccording to Noble, the next phase of the story is already mapped out in the company’s prospectus.
The first meaningful unlock arrives after second-quarter earnings, when 20% of locked shares become eligible for sale. Another early release could occur if the stock meets a price-based performance trigger.
From late August through October, additional tranches are scheduled to unlock every few weeks. The largest release comes after third-quarter earnings, followed by the expiration of the six-month lockup in December.
Noble estimates insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, increasing the tradable float by roughly 900% from IPO levels.
A Different Kind Of Bear CaseUnlike traditional short theses built around deteriorating fundamentals or disappointing earnings, Noble argues the catalyst is already visible.
“It’s literally a published calendar,” he wrote.
He contends that thousands of early employees and private investors who acquired shares at substantially lower valuations may choose to monetize their holdings once restrictions expire.
Noble also questioned the company’s valuation, noting that SpaceX has yet to report an annual profit and traded above 90 times revenue at its IPO, with the multiple briefly approaching 140 times during the stock’s early rally.
While he described Starlink as “a wonderful business,” he argued it does not justify the company’s multi-trillion-dollar valuation on its own.
Why Investors Are WatchingLockup expirations don’t always trigger sharp declines. Some insiders hold their shares, while strong institutional demand can absorb new supply.
But Noble believes SpaceX’s combination of a historically small IPO float, rapid index inclusion and staggered insider unlocks makes this one of the most unusual supply-demand setups he has seen.
His conclusion is blunt: the story investors should be watching isn’t just how SpaceX performs—it’s how many shares suddenly become available to sell.
Imagen: Shutterstock
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SPCX stock is under pressure today. Why are SPCX shares down? SpaceX Stock Back in the SpotlightToday’s move reads less like a thematic unwind and more like a positioning reset, with fast-money sellers leaning on a stock that has had a significant run. With SPCX now trading below its 52-week low of $145.07, that level has flipped from support to resistance, and the burden of proof shifts to buyers to show up with conviction at current levels.
Analyst Consensus and Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $236.27. Recent analyst moves include:
Clear Street: Buy ($217.00 target) (July 7) Macquarie: Outperform ($250.00 target) (July 7) Deutsche Bank: Buy ($255.00 target) (July 7) What SpaceX Actually DoesThat combination ties SPCX to multiple high-interest themes including launch services, satellite connectivity and AI infrastructure, a profile that tends to reward the stock richly when growth sentiment is running hot and punish it sharply when it is not.
SPCX Shares Are Plunging MondayImage: Thrive Studios ID/Shutterstock
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.23%) went public about a month ago, and many investors hope the company will revolutionize tech, space travel, and even the telecom sector. With a diversified business model, the company, also known as SpaceX, has significant potential. In its S-1 filing, it outlined a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
There has been plenty of excitement from retail investors looking to buy the stock despite its rich valuation. And even analysts have also shown themselves to be incredibly bullish. Recently, there's been a flurry of analyst price targets released, and I was shocked at some of them.
Image source: Getty Images.
The consensus price target suggests an upside of around 65% Out of 35 analyst ratings, there's only one brave soul who has given SpaceX stock a sell rating. Seven analysts have given hold ratings, while 27 have given buy ratings. This already looks exceedingly optimistic for a stock that came out of the gate at an inflated valuation when it went public last month. Although it has been falling recently, SpaceX's market cap remains around $2 trillion, making it among the most valuable companies in the world.
The consensus analyst price target, however, is just over $239, indicating an upside of about 65%. There's one price target from Morgan Stanley that's $300, which would put SpaceX's market cap at close to $4 trillion. But the most outlandish is easily one for $800 from a Raymond James analyst, suggesting that the company is poised to be worth $10.5 trillion.
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Analysts can be just as wrong about a stock as regular investors Analyst price targets for SpaceX vary widely, but they are generally fairly bullish, and they factor in some rosy expectations for the business. In order for the stock to generate these types of returns, things will need to go incredibly well for a company that's run by a CEO (Elon Musk) who often sets the bar high and is known for overpromising in the past. Match that up with a high valuation, and you have a potential recipe for disaster.
Analysts aren't always willing to issue sell ratings, even when there may be a strong case to do so, as there is now. No one wants to look bad, especially when the stock is doing well, and momentum suggests it can keep rising. But investors shouldn't ignore the fundamentals or the risks that come with the stock. SpaceX has grand ambitions, but that doesn't mean its success is a sure thing.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has cleared SpaceX to fly Starship prototypes again, after the company identified the probable cause of the failure of the rocket system’s booster stage during a flight in May.
SpaceX said over the weekend that the next flight of Starship could happen as soon as this Thursday, July 16. It would be the second-ever launch of the third version, or V3, of Starship. SpaceX also said that this Starship will carry the first third-generation Starlink satellites to space. Previously, Starship had only carried dummy versions of the larger, more powerful internet satellites.
This is SpaceX’s second test flight of its Starship system, and its first as a public company, testing the market’s appetite for the company’s “fly, fail, fix” approach to rocket development that often ends in fireballs — or, as CEO Elon Musk calls the explosions: “rapid unscheduled disassembly.” SpaceX completed its IPO and publicly listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange on June 12, making it one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world and raising nearly $86 billion, a record.
SpaceX’s first test launch of the V3 Starship on May 22 was largely successful. The company’s Super Heavy booster lifted the 407-foot rocket into space before the upper stage section separated and deployed 20 satellite simulators along with two modified Starlinks that recorded footage of the Starship exterior.
The new third-generation booster was supposed to return to Earth and perform a simulated landing in the Gulf of Mexico. But its engines didn’t properly re-ignite, and it instead plummeted into the water below.
The problem happened at that moment of booster separation, according to SpaceX and the FAA. SpaceX said in a post published over the weekend that “slight differences in engine startup on the ship” caused the Booster to turn 90 degrees in the wrong direction. SpaceX said it has modified this engine startup sequence to allow the booster to “more reliably flip in the desired direction” and that the booster has been modified to “improve re-light reliability.”
The FAA said in a statement Monday that the most probable root causes of the Super Heavy booster failure were “heat effects on propulsion system components during the [rocket’s] ascent and erroneous engine alarm system settings.” SpaceX said in its post that it has made changes to Starship’s engine alarm and abort systems that should reduce the chance of a similar failure in the future.
While the first upper stage of Starship V3 was able to successfully deploy its test payload in May and simulate a landing in the Gulf — a milestone SpaceX had struggled to reach before — it also did so while losing one of the three Raptor engines that are meant to be used in the vacuum of space. SpaceX said over the weekend that it has made “[s]everal hardware and operational modifications” to prevent this from happening again.
This next Starship test flight will see the company launch the first of its V3 Starlink satellites to space, which are supposed to increase the satellite network’s capacity and user speeds. SpaceX is planning to deploy 20 of these new satellites during the launch. They are designed to connect with the larger Starlink constellation “via high-capacity lasers” and then burn up in the atmosphere roughly 20 minutes after they are deployed, according to SpaceX. Six of them will be equipped with cameras to photograph the exterior of Starship.
The V3 versions of both Starship and Starlink are crucial to SpaceX’s future. Starlink was the only profitable part of SpaceX’s business in the run-up to its IPO, and SpaceX needs Starship to become a fully reusable rocket system to even attempt its galaxy-brained plans for space-based data centers and interplanetary travel.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
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Shares of SpaceX slipped for a second trading day on Monday, bringing Elon Musk's company closer to its $135 initial public offering price just days after making its entrance into the Nasdaq-100.
Now through its first month as a public company, the stock has been volatile since its June 12 debut, and is down about 7% from its first trade of $150.
The blockbuster debut, which saw Musk briefly become the world's first trillionaire, was expected to be the first of other highly-anticipated IPOs in the artificial intelligence space, including OpenAI and Anthropic.
Both companies said they confidentially filed IPO prospectuses with the Securities and Exchange Commission this summer, but haven't disclosed any official timelines or plans for their debuts.
Read more CNBC tech newsBurnout, frustration and heartbreak: Amazon layoffs take their toll in saturated job marketMeta's Louisiana data center investment to reach $50 billion, aided by generous tax incentivesEurope's Anduril rival Helsing raises $1.8 billion at $18 billion valuationElon Musk and Sam Altman spar on X after Apple files OpenAI lawsuitOpenAI CEO Sam Altman told CNBC's Julia Boorstin last week that he didn't know whether the company would be going public this year.
SpaceX's move into the widely-tracked Nasdaq-100 brought a fresh wave of passive investors into the stock last week, as funds that track the benchmark index matched the new lineup.
The exchange recently revised its rules for new public companies to become part of the index, allowing the space and AI company to be included within a month of going public.
A fresh batch of analysts, 15 in total, have recently issued new ratings for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.54%). One among them was particularly notable for its optimism, as it forecasts the company's share price will climb to $800 over the next 12 to 18 months.
That, however, was mostly an outlier view. Based on the bulk of those new ratings, the price range where SpaceX stock is likely to trade a year from now is significantly lower.
Image source: Getty Images.
How high could the SpaceX stock price climb by 2028? The time frame for analysts' price target forecasts is generally between 12 and 18 months. In this case, let's view them through the 18-month lens. That gives SpaceX more time to potentially reach them, making them more achievable and more useful for investors to consider.
On July 7, Barron's reported 15 new analyst ratings for SpaceX stock. Among those new ratings, the average price target was around $250.
SpaceX has traded in a wide range since its initial public offering on June 12, from as low as $145.20 to as high as $225.64. So for investors who have already bought the stock, their potential 18-month returns on a $5,000 investment will look drastically different depending on what price they paid. But as a starting point, we'll use the July 8 closing price to estimate the value of a $5,000 investment.
On July 8, SpaceX closed at $148.30 per share; a $5,000 investment at that price would buy more than 33 shares.
If SpaceX were to reach $250 per share by January 2028, roughly 18 months from now, that $5,000 investment would be worth $8,427. That would be a percentage gain of 68.5%.
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The caveat with price targets An analyst's price target offers an estimate of where a stock could trade in the future, providing an indication of the potential upside an investor might expect. That said, it is just an estimate: There's no guarantee that the stock will ever reach that price.
SpaceX as a business has so many moving pieces with its rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence (AI) division that it's a particularly challenging company to calculate a price target for. So, rather than focusing on those price targets, a more useful approach for investors may be to focus on the opportunities that could lie ahead for it.
The management team at SpaceX believes it has a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion is connected to AI. To capture as much of that TAM as possible, SpaceX is planning to deploy a vast constellation of satellites housing data center servers. That could be the company's first step toward becoming the leader in a new wave of AI infrastructure. It will, however, be a costly venture, and it will take years to bring the project to life. Meanwhile, the company's AI capital expenditures alone in 2025 totaled $12.7 billion, and it reported a net loss of $4.9 billion for that year.
Ultimately, there's plenty of upside potential for SpaceX shareholders, but there's also a lot of risk that will need to be tolerated and challenges that will need to be navigated to get to any potential rewards.
OpenAI (Unlisted:OPAI) CEO Sam Altman has criticized Elon Musk’s plans for space-based data centers, accusing the SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) and xAI leader of promoting an unproven technology to public market investors as the two technology executives continued their long-running dispute.
The comments came after Musk accused Altman of “taking scamming to a whole new level” in a post on X, escalating a series of public exchanges between the two billionaires that have followed their split over the direction of OpenAI.
“Homeboy you're the one selling public market investors on short-term space data centers,” Altman wrote on X, referring to SpaceX’s plans to develop orbital computing infrastructure.
Musk’s comments referenced ongoing legal disputes involving OpenAI and Altman, while Altman’s response targeted SpaceX’s plans for artificial intelligence computing satellites. SpaceX has outlined plans for a large-scale satellite network capable of supporting AI workloads, including up to one million compute satellites. The company’s AI1 satellite design is expected to support peak power levels of up to 150 kilowatts. However, the orbital data center concept remains in development and has yet to be demonstrated at scale.
Altman has previously expressed skepticism about the near-term potential of space-based computing. During a podcast appearance in February, he said orbital compute would not provide meaningful capacity for OpenAI within two, five, or even 10 years.
While SpaceX’s space data center plans remain unproven, the company has already expanded its terrestrial AI infrastructure business, including leasing data center capacity to companies such as Anthropic and Google.
Shares of SpaceX traded down about 5% on Monday at about $138, only modestly above last month’s IPO price of $135.
SpaceX has gotten on my speculative buy list, driven by its highly ambitious AI transformation and potential for explosive long-term growth. Current AI revenue is nascent, but projections suggest AI could comprise over 90% of SPCX's business by 2030, with revenue estimates reaching $365B. Execution risk is extremely high, with wide-ranging price targets ($62–$800) and significant near-term volatility expected due to insider share unlocks through 2027.
SpaceX stock SPCX fell for a second consecutive trading session on Monday, moving closer to the company's $135 initial public offering price just days after joining the Nasdaq-100 index.
The stock declined more than 4% to trade around $139 as broader US equity markets also came under pressure.
The S&P 500 fell to session lows after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The broad-market index lost 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 56 points, or 0.1%, lower.
Despite the stock's decline, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239, implying upside of more than 70% from current levels.
According to Harned, SpaceX's leadership in reusable rockets and launch services remains intact even after China successfully landed a Long March 10B rocket booster.
Harned said China's successful landing occurred about six months earlier than he had expected and noted that the country is rapidly expanding its space ambitions.
He said China plans to deploy more than 200,000 low-Earth orbit satellites and is also pursuing a research station on the Moon.
Harned also said the Long March 10 can only reuse its first-stage booster, while SpaceX's Starship is designed to be fully reusable.
If successful, he said, Starship could further reduce launch costs and enable the company to increase launch frequency.
Several Wall Street firms have outlined ambitious long-term scenarios for SpaceX, driven largely by expectations for Starlink, its reusable launch business, and potential opportunities in AI infrastructure.
Among the more bullish forecasts, Raymond James has one of the Street's highest published price targets at $800 per share.
Meanwhile, Citigroup has outlined a bull-case scenario that values SpaceX at roughly $12 trillion.
Monday's decline follows a strong start to SpaceX's life as a publicly traded company.
The stock surged more than 30% during its first several trading sessions before reversing course.
The pullback has brought the shares closer to their $135 IPO price after the company made its Nasdaq debut on June 12.
The stock had already fallen below its $150 debut trading price following its initial sessions in the public market.
The company's combination of high valuation expectations, ambitious long-term growth projections, and limited trading history has left the shares particularly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment.
SpaceX's recent addition to the Nasdaq-100 prompted a new wave of passive investment, as funds tracking the benchmark adjusted their portfolios to reflect the updated index composition.
The inclusion came after the exchange revised its rules governing newly listed companies, allowing the space and artificial intelligence company to join the benchmark within a month of going public.
Initial public offerings have returned in force this year, but they continue to remind investors that excitement and valuation are rarely the same thing. Companies tied to artificial intelligence, space, and other high-growth themes have attracted eager buyers willing to pay well above offering prices. Yet once the opening-day enthusiasm fades, fundamentals tend to regain control.
That’s the lesson SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) investors have been learning over the past month. It’s also becoming the story for SK hynix‘s IPO, except the market appears to be reaching that conclusion much faster.
Hype Doesn’t Last Forever SpaceX made a dramatic entrance onto the public markets last month. The space company priced its IPO at $135 per share before opening for trading at $150. Within two trading sessions, the stock reached roughly $225, giving it a valuation that stretched far beyond where many investors believed the fundamentals justified.
The enthusiasm didn’t last. SpaceX stock has steadily retreated over the past month and trades just below $140 in morning trading today. That leaves it barely above its IPO price while wiping out essentially all of the gains investors who bought at the opening price briefly enjoyed.
Now SK hynix appears to be following a similar path — only at a much faster pace.
The South Korean memory chip giant priced its IPO at $149 per share before opening at $170 last week. The stock climbed to an intraday high of $177 before ending its first day at $168 as the early momentum quickly faded. Shares are down about 4% today, leaving the stock near $160.
Ironically, SpaceX needed almost a month before falling below its opening trade. SK hynix crossed that line on its very first day. If the current trend continues, both companies could soon find themselves trading below their IPO offer prices.
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So why was SK hynix’s debut so weak? It wasn’t deteriorating fundamentals, but rather valuation. Investors bid shares roughly 19% above the IPO price before the opening bell, pricing in years of optimistic growth just as questions were raised about the memory boom’s durability amid skyrocketing prices. SpaceX experienced a similar dynamic. In both cases, expectations expanded faster than underlying fundamentals.
The Long-Term Story Still Looks Compelling That said, the investment case hasn’t disappeared. Industry forecasts from leading Wall Street research firms estimate the four largest hyperscale cloud providers will spend roughly $1.8 trillion on AI infrastructure during 2026 and 2027. While only about one-quarter of that spending ultimately goes toward AI accelerators, every advanced GPU requires large amounts of HBM and DRAM to deliver peak performance.
That demand continues supporting memory pricing. Industry data from TrendForce shows HBM prices remain near record levels even as the pace of increases begins to moderate. For SK hynix, that’s an important distinction. Slower price growth is very different from falling prices.
Ultimately, this was never a business problem for SK hynix — or even for SpaceX. It was a valuation problem from the beginning. Markets eventually find equilibrium, even after periods of IPO euphoria.
Key Takeaway In short, SK hynix’s disappointing post-IPO performance says more about investor expectations than the company’s competitive position. The same lesson applies to SpaceX. Both companies entered public markets carrying valuations inflated by excitement surrounding AI and next-generation technology. As those premiums disappear, long-term investors may finally get the opportunity they were waiting for.
Granted, neither stock may have reached that point just yet. Regardless, patient investors should focus less on where these shares traded during their first few days and more on where their underlying businesses are likely to be five years from now. If AI infrastructure spending unfolds anywhere close to current projections, both companies could eventually justify much higher valuations — but only after hype gives way to fundamentals.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX 3.47%) is pushing deeper into AI infrastructure through its Reflection AI deal, giving investors a new recurring revenue stream to watch. The bull case is powerful: rockets, Starlink, and AI compute all scaling together. But the stock's premium valuation makes execution risk impossible to ignore.
*Stock prices used were the market prices of July 1, 2026. The video was published on July 11, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Every company needs working capital, particularly to get things going. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) is no exception.
The timing and scope of SpaceX's most recent fundraising, however, are a bit of a red flag. We're not talking about SpaceX's mid-June initial public offering, which raised proceeds of $85.7 billion when demand exceeded the $75 billion worth of stock it originally intended to issue.
Surprise! Without nearly as much fanfare as that surrounding the record-breaking June 12 IPO, late last month SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds with maturity dates extending all the way out to 2056. The primary purpose of these funds was to fully pay off its bridge loan, which stood at $20 billion as of the end of March. Any remaining proceeds were earmarked for "general corporate purposes," although nearly $10 billion more in other debt-based financing remains on the company's balance sheet.
Image source: Getty Images.
This begs the (not entirely rhetorical) question: Why didn't the company just sell enough stock less than two weeks earlier to eliminate this debt entirely? It certainly wasn't a lack of demand, or pricing power, or availability of shares to issue. SpaceX is now a $2 trillion behemoth, with only a tiny fraction of the company now publicly traded.
More to the point, perhaps the bond sale should have been disclosed -- even if only as a possibility -- prior to the public offering, particularly given that SpaceX is going to remain in the red for a while and is likely to raise more money in the foreseeable future. That was the case when CEO Elon Musk was turning Tesla into an electric vehicle titan, anyway.
That's not the only curveball SpaceX shareholders were thrown since its IPO, either. Shortly after its initial public offering, the company also disclosed its intent to acquire Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding specialist Cursor, for $60 billion, payable in stock. Again, it's material information that could have been -- and arguably should have been -- disclosed to investors prior to the public offering, given how few shares are now issued and outstanding.
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Ordinary shareholders aren't in charge There's nothing illegal, atypical, or untoward about any of it. Companies acquire other companies. Young companies are often unprofitable at the beginning and need cash, which is often supplied by the sale of stock at a bargain relative to that ticker's long-term potential.
The worry here, rather, is the lack of transparency that's already evident in just the first few days of SpaceX's existence as a publicly traded entity. It hasn't yet earned the leeway with investors to make a major acquisition at a price three times last year's revenue. The company's not yet deserving of the right to simply turn a bridge loan into a long-term debt burden that could be difficult for the unprofitable outfit to service with actual operating profits anytime soon.
Yet, that's exactly what's happened.
Shareholders should be hoping this sort of unilateral, unchecked decision-making doesn't remain the norm. Given that Musk controls over 80% of total shareholder voting rights, however, there's little that investors could do if it does.
