Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The SpaceX logo in this illustration taken June 11, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Tiger Global Management trimmed several of its Big Tech stakes, exited Netflix (NFLX.O), opens new tab, and took positions in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab ​and SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab during the second quarter, according to regulatory ‌disclosures filed Friday.

Here are more details from its quarterly 13-F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission:

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The hedge fund cut its Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab holdings by ​45.4% to 5.81 million shares as of June 30 ​from the end of March, and its Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab stake by 6.8% ⁠to 11.20 million shares.

It trimmed its Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab stake by 9.3% ​to 2.27 million shares and its Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab position by 3.2% to 9.68 million ​shares.

The hedge fund reduced its holding in Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab by 8.5% to 2.82 million.

The filings showed that Tiger Global sold its entire 2.44 million-share Netflix position, ​valued at about $234.5 million, at the end of the first ​quarter.

The investment firm also cut its Broadcom (AVGO.O), opens new tab stake by about 51% to ‌1.75 ⁠million shares and reduced its Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing holding by 12.3% to 4.88 million American depositary shares.

Meanwhile, it more than doubled its stake in Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab to 4.25 million shares from 1.64 million shares ​in the prior ​quarter.

It also established ⁠a 674,727-share position in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab, valued at roughly $392 million as of June 30, and ​reported a 375,000-share stake in SpaceX, valued at ​about $64.1 million.

13-F ⁠filings provide a snapshot of certain U.S.-listed equity holdings at the end of a quarter but do not disclose subsequent trading, short ⁠positions ​or the fund's full portfolio.

The changes ​in holdings are as of June 30, compared with the prior quarter ended March ​31.

Reporting by Juby Babu in Mexico City; Editing by Diti Pujara

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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Elon Musk's SpaceX closed its acquisition of Cursor. The two firms have already been working together. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images The ink has dried.

SpaceX closed its $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor on Friday. The two companies first partnered in April, giving Elon Musk's space company the right to buy Cursor. SpaceX officially committed to the acquisition in June.

On SpaceX's August earnings call, Musk was hesitant to give any details about the SpaceX-Cursor partnership. "We don't want to jump the gun on regulators for closing the acquisition," he said.

The two companies, however, have already been close collaborators. Here's how.

Supporting GrokUsed a new Grok model? You have Cursor to thank.

Cursor trained Grok 4.5 jointly with SpaceX. That included using "trillions of tokens of Cursor data," the AI coding company said. It was the first model Cursor built that wasn't only for software engineering.

"It's been a pleasure working with the SpaceXAI team on it," Cursor cofounder Aman Sanger said on X in July.

The company also helped train Grok 4.6, which SpaceX released on Wednesday.

ComputeCursor's partnership had one colossal benefit.

The company got to use Colossus, SpaceX's supercomputer powered by 200,000 Nvidia GPUs. The data center is also used by Anthropic.

In its April announcement, Cursor wrote that using Colossus would allow the company to "dramatically scale up" its models' intelligence.

"We've wanted to push our training efforts much further, but we've been bottlenecked by compute," Cursor wrote.

Bundled subscriptionsSpaceX released its new AI agent, called Grok Bot, on Tuesday.

It was available for SuperGrok Heavy users, as expected. Cursor Ultra subscribers and Cursor Premium Teams also gained access to the product.

Recent Grok releases were also included as "first-party models" in Cursor's system.

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Henry Chandonnet You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.

Henry Chandonnet is a senior reporter on the Business News desk. He writes about tech culture, from Silicon Valley's startup class to the everyday AI user. He also closely covers Big Tech and the workplace. Henry previously wrote for Fast Company, where he covered trending tech news. He's written for The Daily Beast, People Magazine, and Vulture.Email Henry at [email protected], reach him on Signal at henrychand.30, or follow him on X @HenryChandonnet. 

SpaceX Elon Musk

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Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are down about 4% midday Friday, trading near $137.14 after opening at $141.29. The slide dents but does not erase a big weekly advance. SPCX is still up roughly 23% over the past five sessions.

No Confirmed Catalyst, but Plenty of Overhangs There is no confirmed company-specific headline driving today’s move. The most likely explanations are ongoing digestion of the early-August share unlock supply, profit-taking after a sharp bounce off the lows, and the general volatility of a newly public, heavily debated name. Reporting on Aug 11 flagged SPCX slipping below its IPO price as a 320 million-share unlock neared, and CNBC reported on Aug 12 that SpaceX short sellers were “running out of bullets” as the stock rebounded more than 40% off its low. That round trip is still the dominant story.

Fundamentally, the setup is strong. Q2 revenue landed at $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, with the AI segment printing $2.6 billion, up 247% YoY and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, per the company’s SEC filing. Elon Musk told investors “The $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That’s what we’d achieve if we basically did nothing.” Prediction markets remain skeptical near term: Polymarket traders assigned a 94% probability to SPCX finishing down today.

Other Volatile Names Making Moves AI infrastructure names are moving in different directions, which is the notable read-through. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is up about 5% today near $268.32, extending a 34% weekly gain after a Q2 report with revenue up 454% YoY and a raised year-end contracted power target of 5 gigawatts. CEO Arkady Volozh told investors “We could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to. But we are not doing this.”

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), meanwhile, is trading slightly lower, off about 1% to $105.10, but is still up 25% for the week after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.6 billion (up 112% YoY) and a backlog of $104 billion. CEO Michael Intrator said “CoreWeave enters the second half of the year with more momentum than at any point in our history.”

All three companies are pursuing aggressive compute buildouts. SpaceX is targeting over 2 gigawatts of compute by year-end with capex of $18.4 billion in Q2 alone. CoreWeave raised its active power target to more than 1.85 gigawatts for 2026. Nebius is building toward more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity per year starting in 2027. The theme is intact. The market is no longer treating these names as one basket.

What to Watch SPCX remains a newly listed, highly volatile stock with unresolved unlock supply and a sharply divided analyst base. The sell-side skews bullish, with 27 buys, 6 holds, and 2 sells and an average target of $235.69. Reddit sentiment has cooled from bullish highs into bearish territory this week. I’d keep an eye on whether SPCX holds the mid-$130s into the close. That level is the pivot separating this week’s advance from a full round trip back to unlock-era prices.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Assenagon Asset Management S.A. acquired a new position in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) in the second quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 14,643 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,502,000. Several other hedge funds and other institutional investors

Given that Robinhood Markets pioneered commission-free online trading, opening up investing like never before, it has become the mecca for retail investors.

At the end of the second quarter, the online brokerage had over 28 million funded customers on its platform, and Robinhood has also expanded its banking capabilities to offer a range of additional services.

With so many customers, Robinhood is a good place for investors to gauge retail sentiment. The company provides a list of its 100 most-owned investments on Robinhood called the Robinhood Investor Index.

A new artificial intelligence stock just cracked the top five.

Image source: Getty Images.

The largest IPO ever Robinhood compiles its Robinhood Investor Index by looking at customer conviction, or the percentage of each investment in investors' portfolios. This considers all investors, too, from those with just $20 to those with millions.

I have followed the Robinhood Investor Index for some time and have noticed that it doesn't change much. Most of the popular names one might expect, like those benefiting from the AI revolution, tend to find their way into the top five or 10 of the index and shuffle around.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +0.32%) is the newest entrant, now clocking in at No. 4 (as of Aug. 11).

This isn't a big surprise, given SpaceX's incredible popularity. Not only is the company run by Elon Musk, the richest person in the world, who has a cult-like following among investors, but it has also been popular for a decade and just completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever.

SpaceX raised nearly $86 billion and had its IPO oversubscribed, so the popularity was there from the jump. The stock now has a $1.88 trillion valuation, making it one of the largest companies by market cap.

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SpaceX fascinates investors for several reasons. It has played a key role in reviving interest in space exploration and missions to the moon by enabling the creation of reusable rockets.

It owns Starlink, its low-Earth-orbit satellite internet network that can bring high-speed internet to places on Earth without reliable internet infrastructure. Starlink now has roughly 12 million subscribers.

Finally, SpaceX acquired Musk's other company, xAI, earlier this year, which owns a smorgasbord of potential AI businesses. This includes the social platform X, Grok Intelligence, massive data center facilities, and a potential future Terafab facility.

As many have noted, SpaceX's regulatory filings read like a science fiction novel, discussing topics such as data centers in space and asteroid mining. Included in Musk's long-term incentive pay package are rewards for establishing a colony on Mars with at least 1 million people.

Are retail investors right about SpaceX? It's clear that retail investors have high conviction in SpaceX, and it wouldn't surprise me to see SpaceX eventually reach the No. 1 spot in the Robinhood Investor Index.

The company is complex. Right now, Starlink is definitely a strong, profitable business with good margins. But the long-term bet at this valuation is clearly on the AI division, which SpaceX itself has said has a total addressable market (TAM) of $26.5 trillion.

Embedded in these assumptions is SpaceX's ability to launch data centers into space, quickly capture a significant amount of AI compute, and create AI enterprise applications that could even replicate human workflows.

Furthermore, all of these activities depend on SpaceX making its fully reusable, super-heavy-lift Starship rocket operational to the point where it can make weekly and even daily trips into space, operating more like a commercial airline.

If SpaceX accomplishes even a fraction of its ambitions, the stock would likely be worth multiples of its current value. However, nobody truly knows what will happen, so it's all still a big bet. Failure to bring some of Musk's ambitions to fruition could also trigger a major sell-off.

That's why I continue to think a smaller, more speculative position in the stock is best right now.

Considering that, amidst the hype and high demand, it was rather difficult to fill SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock orders at the initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, most of the firm’s non-insider early shareholders had to wait for the June 12 morning bell.

Unfortunately for these investors, SPCX shares’ August rally failed to help them accrue unrealized gains even after the nearly 40% rally from the low-time low of $104.83 on the third day of the month to $143.75 on Friday.

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Google
Specifically, SpaceX stock opened on June 12 at $150 and faced the closing bell at $160.95. Under the circumstances, a $1,000 purchase made early in the day would have fallen roughly 4.17% – by $41.67 – to $958.33 by the morning of August 14.

An even purchase would have fared even worse, falling 10.69% to $893.14 for a $106.86 loss.

What is next for SpaceX stock day-one investors?
Elsewhere, recent developments indicate that day-one investors might soon turn a profit while, according to Wall Street, long-term gains are all but guaranteed.

SpaceX’s August 4 earnings triggered the ongoing reversal that led to the nearly 40% recovery, while Friday early-morning moves indicate that the Thursday regular-session drop was a temporary correction.

Furthermore, Elon Musk’s newer public company already benefited from its and Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) $16.8 billion investment in the Texas Terafab plant and might soon see additional tailwinds from the rumored ‘flying’ Roadster demonstration.

In the long run, Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly confident that a decisive SpaceX stock rally is coming within the next 12 months. Indeed, SPCX shares are overwhelmingly considered a ‘Buy,’ with as many as thirty positive recommendations.

Simultaneously, only seven institutional experts are ‘Neutral’ toward the equity, and three view it as a ‘Sell.’

Wall Street sets SpaceX stock price target for the next 12 months. Source: TradingView
In terms of the returns investors might expect, the average prediction stands at $226.26, and the Street high forecasts an even more remarkable rally to $800. Still, some on Wall Street see a plunge to $75 as a more likely outcome for the next 12 months of trading, per the data Finbold retrieved from TradingView on August 14.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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Open Positions

It has gained around 22% in the week since the first tranche of shares were unlocked last Thursday and another release is coming next week.

Odměňování generálních ředitelů největších amerických firem dosáhlo v roce 2025 nového rekordu. Podle analýzy odborové federace AFL-CIO vzrostla průměrná odměna šéfů společností z indexu S&P 500 bez započtení mimořádných balíčků Elona Muska o 21 % na 22,8 milionu dolarů. Současně se dále rozevírají nůžky mezi vrcholovým managementem a běžnými zaměstnanci, když průměrný poměr odměn dosáhl 312 ku jedné. Odbory varují, že rostoucí využívání umělé inteligence, slabší vyjednávací pozice zaměstnanců a rychle rostoucí manažerské odměny zvyšují napětí kolem příjmové nerovnosti v americké ekonomice.

Mzdy šéfů firem zahrnutých do akciového indexu S&P 500 jsou na rekordu, a to i bez zahrnutí mimořádných balíčků odměn pro šéfa společností SpaceX a Tesla Elona Muska. S odkazem na údaje, které sesbírala AFL-CIO (Americká federace práce a Kongres průmyslových organizací), o tom píše agentura Reuters. Společnosti analýzu zveřejní během dne.

Když se nezapočtou finanční odměny generálního ředitele společností Tesla a SpaceX, vzrostlo v roce 2025 průměrné odměňování nejvyšších představitelů firem z indexu S&P 500 o 21 procent na 22,8 milionu dolarů (bezmála 479 miliard Kč). To je podle Reuters nejvyšší částka od doby, kdy nejvyšší americká odborová federace začala toto číslo v devadesátých let sledovat.

Hlavním motorem tohoto nárůstu byly obří odměny, kterými se vícero firem inspirovalo u Muskovy Tesly. Její šéf a spoluzakladatel si může, pokud splní stanovené cíle, odnést až bilion dolarů.

Včetně již odsouhlasených Muskových odměn pak dosáhla loni průměrná odměna generálních ředitelů společností z indexu S&P 500 výše 340,1 milionu dolarů (7,1 miliardy Kč), uvádí AFL-CIO.

Zároveň se zvyšuje propast mezi mzdami šéfů firem a řadových zaměstnanců. Podle tajemníka a pokladníka odborové centrály AFL-CIO Freda Redmonda brzdí mzdy zaměstnanců nástup umělé inteligence (AI). Růstu jejich mezd také brání činnost Národní rady pro pracovní vztahy (NLRB), kterou řídí republikáni. Odboroví předáci totiž vnímají tyto představitele jako nepřátelsky naladěné vůči snahám o zakládání odborů, řekl Redmond agentuře.

Oba faktory přispěly k tomu, že se průměrný poměr mezi odměnou generálního ředitele a běžného zaměstnance ve společnostech z indexu S&P 500 loni zvýšil na 312:1 (oproti 285:1 v předchozím roce), a to bez započtení odměny Elona Muska ve společnosti Tesla. Pokud se odměna Muska v Tesle do výpočtu zahrne, dosáhl loňský průměrný poměr mezi mzdami ředitelů a zaměstnanců hodnoty 5387:1.

"Když mluvíme s našimi členy, jsou naštvaní na to, co se s nimi děje, a mají pocit, že by se měli hlasitěji ozývat a upozorňovat na nerovnost," uvedl Redmond.

Elon Musk held a 48.4% stake in SpaceX as of June 30, a regulatory filing ​showed on Thursday, valuing his holding at ‌more than $900 billion at current market prices.

Patient investors knew to avoid Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.56%) stock in the period shortly after the company's IPO, as it was expected that early demand for the shares would be high, then falter as the weeks dragged on. That thesis has proven correct, and the stock now trades below the price at which it opened its first trading session. But there are a handful of reasons why I'm not considering buying SpaceX stock yet. 

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is too expensive
On the surface, a price of $135 per share doesn't seem that expensive, but that's not the point. What really matters with any stock is its valuation. While investors don't have a full year's worth of SpaceX's public results to look at yet, we do have some estimates about how it will perform this year. The consensus among Wall Street analysts covering the company is that it will generate around $44.25 billion in revenue during 2026.

SpaceX isn't profitable, so the price-to-sales ratio is the best valuation measure investors can use to weigh the stock, and based on that revenue estimate, its forward price-to-sales ratio is 41. Most investors would call a stock trading at 41 times earnings expensive, let alone sales.

For reference, some of the largest companies in the world trade at far lower price-to-earnings ratios.

GOOG PE Ratio data by YCharts.

This shows how expensive SpaceX stock is, which is one of the reasons why I'm avoiding it for now.

Another reason is that the lockup periods preventing pre-IPO insiders from selling their shares will end in phases throughout the coming year. Those early shareholders will be permitted to sell ever-growing fractions of their holdings as a set of key dates pass. The last of those dates will come one year after the IPO, when CEO Elon Musk (the company's largest shareholder) will finally be allowed to start selling some of his own shares -- if he chooses.

In the meantime, the phased end of the lockup could mess with the supply-and-demand dynamic for the stock, as a growing float of available shares could meet lackluster demand and crater the stock price. Earlier this month, the first of the lockup periods ended and the stock price did not tank, so this issue may not have a big impact on the shares after all, but I still think it's a risk that investors should keep in mind.

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Lastly, would-be SpaceX investors need to continue watching its results. It's relatively easy for a company's management team to do things that artificially boost its results for a quarter or two to keep the stock elevated, but keeping the numbers strong over a year requires a real business that's seeing strong success. I'm confident that SpaceX can do that, but I want to see proof of it before I buy.

So a year after SpaceX's IPO, I'll start to consider buying the stock. Until then, I think most investors would be better off watching it from the sidelines.

Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

During a meeting with employees, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -2.56%) CEO Elon Musk said that the majority of the company’s revenue will come from artificial intelligence by September.

Furthermore, Musk said 99% of SpaceX’s revenue will come from AI in the next four to five years.

That may surprise some, given that SpaceX is viewed as a pioneer of the space economy, but it comprises many businesses that are somewhat interwoven.

There is the launch business, which many people over the years likely have come to know SpaceX best for. This business conceptualized reusable rockets to send astronauts into space at a lower cost and more quickly.

Image source: White House.

Then there is Starlink, SpaceX’s low-Earth-orbit satellite internet service, which now has 12 million subscribers and can provide high-speed internet to people in areas with poor internet access.

Finally, there is the AI division, which SpaceX acquired earlier this year through the acquisition of xAI, which Musk also founded. This division is multifaceted and includes the social platform X, Grok Intelligence, data centers, and a potential future terafab facility.

AI is the driver of the valuationFor those who follow the business, Musk’s statement should come as no surprise.

In its registration statement, SpaceX says the company has a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, $26.5 trillion of which is from the AI division.

Furthermore, the company has inked highly lucrative AI compute deals that involve leasing its data center capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet, generating a combined $2.15 billion in monthly revenue. The Alphabet agreement is slated to begin in October, while the Anthropic deal is already underway.

SpaceX generated $7.8 billion of revenue in the second quarter, with nearly $4.3 billion coming from Starlink and nearly $2.6 billion coming from AI, so you can see how these deals could soon make the AI division the top driver of revenue.

On the earnings call, Musk also said he thinks the company will have 2 Gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of the year, and then closer to 10 GW online by the end of 2027.

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"The value per watt is probably going to be 30 to $50, which means if we bring 10 Gigawatts of AI online by the end of next year, it will be 300 to $500 billion a year in revenue," Musk told employees. "Big numbers."

AI is the driver, but SpaceX’s valuation is still dependent on spaceNow, investors should keep in mind that data centers are extremely capital-intensive to build.

For Musk to achieve what already looks like an incredibly lofty goal of bringing 10 GW online by the end of next year, some have estimated it could require hundreds of billions in capital expenditures.

SpaceX’s capex soared to over $18 billion at the end of the second quarter.

Trading at a $1.85 trillion market cap, the company’s valuation and future appreciation remain highly dependent on the realization of its space ambitions. While SpaceX operates three different businesses, all of them are or will be made possible by the company’s launch business.

The company’s fully reusable rockets help launch Starlink’s satellites into space, and SpaceX’s super-heavy-lift rocket, Starship, which is still in testing, is critical to eventually deploying orbital data centers, which would enable SpaceX to quickly capture a significant share of total AI compute.

Whether orbital data centers will come to fruition remains unclear, which is why SpaceX has become such a battleground stock.

So, yes, AI will undoubtedly be the largest driver of revenue. However, it’s the ability to leverage SpaceX’s launch capabilities that would take it from a purely terrestrial data center play to an orbital one, which could send the stock soaring.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -2.56%) and MP Materials (MP +1.92%) are wildly different companies, but they are both building core infrastructure for the next decade of technology: one in the sky, the other deep in the supply chain.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX is the new attractive tech investment
On the SpaceX side, you are really betting on two intertwined technologies, Starlink and Starship. Starlink is already a mega‑constellation of more than ten thousand low Earth orbit satellites that use phased-array antennas and optical-fiber links to move data around the planet with much lower latency than traditional satellite internet. Each satellite carries multiple space lasers capable of up to 200 gigabits per second in aggregate, and newer mini lasers deliver 25 gigabits per second at distances up to 4,000 kilometers, creating a mesh in space that routes traffic without relying on a dense network of ground stations. The coming Starlink V3 hardware pushes that further, with each satellite designed for roughly 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity and 160 gigabits per second of uplink, optimized to ride on the heavy-lift Starship rocket and to support direct‑to‑device cellular service.

Starship itself is another big part of the tech thesis. It is a two-stage, fully reusable methane‑fueled launch system built from stainless steel, powered by Raptor engines that use a full‑flow staged combustion cycle, one of the most demanding designs in rocketry. The latest Raptor 3 engines target up to 300 tons of thrust each, use proprietary superalloys and 3D-printed cooling channels to withstand extreme pressures and temperatures, and are designed for rapid reuse without heavy engine heat shields. If SpaceX makes this system truly reliable, it could lower the cost of putting mass and bandwidth into orbit by an order of magnitude.

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MP Materials is an EV and motor play
MP Materials offers a completely different angle. Instead of satellites and rockets, it produces the rare-earth materials and magnets that sit inside EV motors, wind turbines, data center equipment, and countless other devices. Its Mountain Pass site in California is currently the only commercial-scale rare earth mine and processing facility in the United States, producing high-purity neodymium and praseodymium that feed downstream manufacturing. In Texas, MP is building a 1.25 billion dollar magnet manufacturing campus called 10X that will eventually bring its total magnet output to around 10,000 metric tons per year, on top of an existing Fort Worth plant that can produce about 3,000 tons annually for customers like General Motors and Apple. The company also has a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-sourced rare earth materials, alloy, and finished magnets for GM's Ultium EV platform, making it a critical link in the domestic EV supply chain.

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So SpaceX is a bet on orbital bandwidth and reusable launch hardware that could redefine connectivity and access to space, while MP Materials is a bet on the "picks and shovels" of electrification and high-performance motors. One is mostly about software‑defined networks riding on cutting-edge rockets, the other about physical materials and magnets that every advanced technology stack quietly depends on. If you want exposure to the next decade of tech, think about both of these companies.

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It looks like shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) have finally launched, with shares gaining close to 10% on Wednesday or around 35% from recent lows. Indeed, it’s not hard to think that the Elon Musk fans are starting to feel that sense of FOMO again, especially as more analysts step up to the plate with some of their more bullish projections.

I won’t be the first to admit that SpaceX is a really difficult company to evaluate. Sure, it has economies of scale, a space monopoly, and many other monopolies that could be in the works, from space communications, orbital AI compute, and, perhaps a bit further down the line, lunar manufacturing.

Indeed, for fans of economic moats that could be, it’s hard not to want to get a piece of SpaceX, even though the present-day fundamentals don’t seem to amount to a market cap that’s flirting with the $2 trillion mark. Of course, there’s more than one way to get to $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a milestone that I think is a bit too aggressive, as I noted in a previous piece covering the name and the Wall Street-high price target of $800 on the shares.

It’s not hard to imagine that many SpaceX shareholders are hungry for a quick double, with some bigger believers looking for a multi-bagger within the next 12 months. As fun and exciting as the future of space is, investors should be coming into the name for the AI and staying for the space economy. As AI really stands to take off, autonomous coding agents, I think, could be the next game-changer for the industry.

Cursor and the agentic coding opportunity that looms
Of course, there’s already quite a bit of buzz surrounding agentic AI and coding models that software developers have made good use of. But the big question is what could happen once much of software engineering is taken care of by an agent that runs around the clock.

Is that kind of technology right around the corner? And is it necessary before we can achieve recursive self-improvement (or RSI)? Time will tell, but there’s no mystery as to why AI labs are so aggressively focusing on coding models.

From Anthropic’s Claude Code to OpenAI’s Codex, and now SpaceX’s Cursor, it feels like the biggest productivity gains at the frontier lie within the realm of coding. It’s a timely opportunity, and with SpaceX’s recent acquisition of the sought-after AI coding firm, I do think that xAI is in the same league as Anthropic and OpenAI, as they race to the holy grail that is a 24/7 coding agent that can scale at a rate that’s difficult for humans to fathom.

Given how quickly SpaceX is moving with its colossal Colossus data centers, it feels like Cursor now has everything it needs to floor it. Indeed, Cursor seems like a business that can best flourish in the hands of SpaceX, given its deep pockets and the talent it brings to the table. Can Cursor and Grok go toe-to-toe with Claude and Claude Code? As agentic coding capabilities look to skyrocket from here, I suppose anything is possible.

Another bullish target on SpaceX
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) recently unveiled its $600.00 bull-case price target on the shares, and Cursor plays a bit of a part in the target, which, while up there, isn’t quite a Street-high (the high watermark is $800 per share). The firm sees Cursor’s annual recurring revenue growing from $8 billion by year’s end to around $33 billion by 2030. Given its potential to boost margins, perhaps Morgan Stanley is right to shine a light on a bull case in addition to the base case.

It might not take long for SpaceX’s $60 billion deal to buy Cursor to prove an absolute bargain, especially if it helps SpaceX get to $600 from the $145 level it stands at today. Cursor is a big deal that analysts are just starting to appreciate. And while it’s nice to be excited about space, the most exciting part of SpaceX for the next 12-18 months, in my view, is the agentic coding and its potential to grant SpaceX a cash cow just like Starlink.

With two cash cows in the works and the option to rent out AI data centers on the ground and in space, perhaps it’s a mistake to doubt the company over its hefty CapEx.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways SpaceX shares jumped 26% last week despite post-earnings and unlock concerns. Institutional and retail investors continue to show interest in SpaceX. Bull and inverse ETFs offer ways to gain or hedge exposure to SpaceX.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX - Free Report) — one of the most-hyped recent IPOs — closed last week in the green, with shares climbing about 26% after the company reported its first earnings as a public company and completed the largest share unlock in its brief trading history.

The two events created back-to-back tests for the stock, either of which could have triggered a sharp selloff. While the stock fell after reporting earnings, the insider share-lockup expiration provided a boost. SpaceX stock surged 15.8% on Friday, marking its strongest daily gain, and finished at its highest level since July 15, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Biggest Share Unlock Tests Investor ConfidenceThe next major test came Thursday, when 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading for the first time. That represented about 43% more shares than the 638.9 million shares offered in the company's June IPO.

Note that Elon Musk’s space technology company surged from its $135 IPO price to an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16. Since then, the stock has lost more than half its value from that peak.

Moderate Institutional Interest Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund has disclosed a 0.05% stake in SpaceX, valued at more than $1.2 billion as of June 30. The disclosure marks the fund’s first reported exposure to SPCX. However, the investment is relatively small compared with the fund’s stakes in other mega-cap technology companies, as quoted on CNBC.

Meanwhile, ARK Investments’ Cathie Wood bought $36.9 million of SpaceX, representing about 316,963 shares, as quoted on Yahoo.

Retail Enthusiasm Cools But Holds FirmRetail demand has also moderated since the IPO, but investors have remained net buyers. Retail investors purchased about $405 million of SpaceX shares during the first five trading sessions, compared with $103 million over the five sessions leading up to the company's earnings report (read: SpaceX Stock Loved by Retail Investors: ETFs in Focus).

Silver Linings in SpaceX StockThe SpaceX investment underscores the growing appeal of the private space and technology company among large institutional investors. SpaceX has expanded beyond its traditional launch and satellite businesses, with its Starlink satellite internet operation and growing involvement in AI infrastructure adding to its long-term growth prospects.

AI Story Drives Long-Term OptimismVanda Research believes retail investors are looking beyond SpaceX's near-term financial results and focusing instead on its long-term AI ambitions, as mentioned on Yahoo Finance.

SpaceX is prioritizing long-term growth over near-term cash flow. Despite several risks, CEO Elon Musk projects that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a year earlier than its pre-IPO forecast.

Starlink Continues to Drive GrowthSpaceX's satellite internet business remained a bright spot during the quarter.

Starlink subscribers surpassed 12 million by the end of Q2, while the connectivity segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.60 billion, exceeding the analysts' estimate of $2.41 billion, per Yahoo Finance (read: SpaceX Beats Q2 Estimates, Shares Fall: ETFs in Focus).

Musk reiterated his long-term vision for the business, saying it is possible that Starlink could eventually provide the majority of the world's internet connectivity.

Upbeat Analysts’ ViewFive out of 11 analysts raised the earnings estimates for the September quarter for SpaceX. Of the 35 recommendations deriving the current Average Broker rating, 22 are Strong Buy and two are Buy.

Based on short-term price targets offered by 31 analysts, the average price target for SpaceX comes to $223.61. The forecasts range from a low of $75.00 to a high of $800.00. The average price target represents an increase of 61.17% from the closing price of $138.74 recorded on Aug. 10, 2026.

Bull ETFs in FocusBaron First Principles ETF (RONB - Free Report) , Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) , VanEck Space ETF (WARP), VanEck Space ETF (ORBX - Free Report) , VegaShares SpaceX & Beyond Earth ETF (XSPC - Free Report) and WisdomTree Space Economy Fund (WSPC - Free Report) are the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in SpaceX to a significant extent.

Major leveraged SpaceX ETFs include the Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull & Bear 2X ETF (LOFF - Free Report) , ProShares Ultra SpaceX (SPCF - Free Report) , and T-REX 2X Long SpaceX Daily Target ETF (SPAX - Free Report) .

Any Wall of Worry?Despite the strong weekly performance, SpaceX still faces eight additional share-unlock tranches over the coming months. The first and largest hurdle has now passed, but the stock's ability to sustain its recovery will depend on whether the company can continue delivering strong financial results while absorbing the additional share supply.

SpaceX reported a massive surge in capex reaching $18.4 billion in Q2 of 2026. This weighed on the stock, following the earnings report. If shares come under pressure due to heavy expenses and additional share unlocks, investors can tap inverse SpaceX ETFs like Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF (SSPC - Free Report) , Direxion Daily SpaceX Bear 2X ETF LOFD, Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SPCX ETF (SPCQ - Free Report) , and GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF (SNK - Free Report) .

Wall Street entered August expecting one of the biggest tests yet for newly listed SpaceX.

The market had been bracing for Aug. 6, when the first post-IPO lockup expired, and hundreds of millions of shares held by early investors became eligible for sale.

Such events often trigger heavy selling pressure as insiders cash out, particularly after blockbuster listings.

Instead, the opposite happened.

SpaceX SPCX shares have rallied 35% in the five trading sessions since the lockup expired, adding roughly $500 billion in market value and climbing back above their $135 initial public offering price, Bloomberg reported.

Rather than triggering a wave of selling, the expiration appears to have reassured investors that insider supply may not overwhelm demand as many had feared.

The sharp rebound has shifted sentiment around Elon Musk's space, satellite and artificial intelligence company after a turbulent first two months as a public company.

SpaceX completed its record $86 billion IPO on June 11, with shares initially soaring before reversing course over the following weeks.

By early August, the stock had shed more than $1 trillion in market capitalization from its post-listing highs, leaving investors anxious that the first lockup expiration would create another round of heavy selling.

Instead, the stock staged one of its strongest rallies since listing.

"If the stock was $225, I would guess that it would have succumbed to the trend," Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, which owns SpaceX shares, told Bloomberg.

Munster said his firm had entered the lockup expiration in "brace mode" as investors waited to see how much selling would emerge.

Unlike most IPOs, where insiders are restricted from selling shares for about 180 days before a single lockup expiration, SpaceX adopted a staggered nine-stage release schedule to reduce potential market disruption.

The Aug. 6 event was by far the largest, releasing 911.5 million shares—more than were sold during the IPO itself.

The next release is scheduled for Aug. 20, when another 319 million shares, or roughly 7% of the shares subject to restrictions, become eligible for sale.

Similar-sized blocks will continue to unlock over the coming months before Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares are released in June 2027.

Munster believes future lockup expirations could follow a similar pattern, with shares weakening beforehand before recovering afterward, provided insiders do not rush to sell.

Another factor behind the rally has been a sharp decline in bearish positioning.

According to CNBC, citing S3 Partners, short interest dropped to about 11% of publicly traded shares on Wednesday from a peak of 34% only a week earlier.

The decline coincided with the lockup expiration, which increased the freely tradable share count while prompting many investors betting against the stock to exit their positions.

Short covering can amplify gains because investors who borrowed shares to sell them short must eventually buy those shares back.

"Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets," S3 Partners' Ihor Dusaniwsky said. "Only so much money you can put into a trade."

That buying pressure appears to have added momentum to a stock that had already begun recovering from its post-earnings decline.

The stock had fallen 14% immediately before the lockup expiration, though investors increasingly believe the decline had more to do with SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report than fears surrounding insider selling.

The company reported higher-than-expected capital expenditure as it ramps up investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, a figure that initially unsettled investors.

However, the earnings report also included several positives.

Revenue comfortably exceeded analyst expectations, while the company's loss per share was smaller than forecast.

Those results, combined with fading lockup concerns, helped shift investor attention back toward SpaceX's long-term growth story.

During the earnings call, Musk reiterated ambitious financial targets.

He said he expects SpaceX to generate an annual revenue run rate exceeding $100 billion by the end of this year before reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2029 or 2030.

Some investors also argue that SpaceX's shareholder base differs from that of most newly listed companies.

Rather than focusing exclusively on traditional valuation metrics, many early investors are viewed as long-term believers in Musk's broader vision for space exploration, satellite communications and artificial intelligence.

The fact that the stock entered the lockup expiration below its IPO price may also have reduced the incentive for early investors to sell immediately.

Investor enthusiasm received another boost this week after SpaceX unveiled Grok 4.6, its latest frontier AI model focused on long-running agents and visual reasoning.

The shares jumped more than 11% during Wednesday's trading session before finishing the day roughly 10% higher.

Following the launch, Musk wrote on X that Grok 4.7 would exceed "all current models."

He added that he would be "shocked" if competitors, including Anthropic, could outperform Grok 4.7 in real-world engineering tasks.

Investor optimism increased further after SpaceX released footage of an internal all-hands meeting.

During the meeting, Musk told employees that AI could soon become the company's largest business.

"Probably our AI revenue -- not probably, definitely -- our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month."

He described AI as "an extremely important part of SpaceX's future" and outlined plans to build 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of next year.

Musk estimated that such infrastructure could generate between $30 and $50 per watt annually, implying AI revenue of between $300 billion and $500 billion by 2028.

"Big numbers," he said.

The company also plans to train Grok using its entire internal knowledge base.

"So in a way, it'll be trained on you," Musk told employees.

Meanwhile, Starlink remains another major growth engine. According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the satellite internet service had approximately 10.3 million subscribers during 2026.

Musk has previously said Starlink could eventually carry more than 90% of global internet traffic.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that SpaceX is unlikely to become a smooth ride for investors.

"I expect this stock to be volatile and go between fear of a story that is promising but is several years out in terms of cash flow, and greed when investors get excited about (Musk's) vision and the stunning promise," Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management, told Bloomberg.

"Bulls can dream the dream. And bears will focus on a stunning amount of capex."

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas remains among Wall Street's biggest supporters of the stock.

According to Investing.com, Jonas reaffirmed his Overweight rating and $300 price target, arguing that investors continue to undervalue SpaceX's AI business.

He believes the valuation gap could narrow as the company demonstrates how Grok and Cursor, its AI-powered coding platform, work together within a broader AI ecosystem.

Morgan Stanley also described Grok Bot as early evidence of an AI platform integrating real-time data, computing power, connectivity and intelligence.

At the same time, Morningstar Chief US Market Strategist Dave Sekera has said SpaceX's recent rally appears to be driven more by short-term supply-and-demand dynamics than by any meaningful change in the company's intrinsic value.

"You really need to divorce what's going on with the fundamentals of the company and the valuation of the company versus how it's going to trade in the marketplace," Sekera said on The Morning Filter podcast.

Sekera said the unlock could have a “huge impact” on short-term trading but is “not meaningful” to SpaceX’s long-term intrinsic value.

Morningstar has maintained its $62 fair-value estimate after SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, implying about 58% downside from current levels.

While the latest rally has eased fears surrounding the first lockup expiration, investors are unlikely to enjoy a prolonged period of calm.

Several more lockup events remain on the calendar over the coming months, each with the potential to introduce fresh supply into the market.

At the same time, investors will continue evaluating whether Musk's enormous AI ambitions justify the company's rising capital expenditure and premium valuation.

For now, however, SpaceX has delivered an unexpected lesson.

Instead of marking the beginning of sustained selling pressure, its largest lockup expiration has become another catalyst in a rally increasingly driven by confidence in the company's AI future rather than concern over insider selling.

Last month, Elon Musk took to X to tell the short-sellers betting against his rocket company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.65%), that their "survival probability" is "very low."

And after its first quarterly report was released last week, a whole lot of investors think he's right. The company gave bulls plenty to like, with revenue up 92% year over year (YoY), the doubling of Starlink subscriptions, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) nearly tripling.

But dig a little deeper into the numbers, and I think there are plenty of reasons to think the short-sellers -- who profit when share prices fall -- are right.

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SpaceX's cash burn is staggering SpaceX generated $3.5 billion in operating cash flow through the first six months of 2026 -- impressive, until you see that the company made $28.5 billion in capital expenditures (capex).

Free cash flow (FCF) was roughly negative $25 billion in just six months. And that actually understates the economic investment somewhat, because another roughly $3.9 billion of capital expenditures were financed rather than paid in cash.

Now, to be fair, this is a company in the middle of an enormous build-out, and heavy spending today can mean big payoffs down the road -- in theory. Spending at this pace and on this scale puts a whole lot of pressure on those investments to pay off quickly, and, at least for the spending on AI, there's a real question of whether they will pay off at all.

One customer accounts for nearly 20% of revenue One unnamed customer accounted for 19.5% of SpaceX's entire Q2 revenue and the lion's share of its AI revenue. That could be a serious problem if the customer backs out, especially given that AI is where SpaceX is spending lavishly -- $23.6 billion of its total capex went into AI alone.

Image source: Getty Images.

Although the customer is unnamed, it is very likely that it's Anthropic, the maker of Claude. The deal to lease computing capacity from SpaceX's xAI is cancellable by either side with just 90 days' notice after an initial ramping period. That is not the kind of agreement you want when you're committing billions to service it.

We've already seen how loose these arrangements can be. Musk himself previously clarified that one heavily touted lease was initially just for 180 days, despite the potential for a much longer relationship.

Starlink's hidden problem: falling revenue per user Starlink is still SpaceX's best business, generating $4.3 billion of Q2 revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income.

But I think investors have been ignoring a problem: Average revenue per user (ARPU) has been falling. The figure came in at just $66 per month, and though that's little changed from the previous quarter, it's down from $85 a year earlier.

ARPU decline is fine when you have subscriber growth to compensate -- and make no mistake, Starlink very much does at this point -- but as time goes on and more of the market is captured, especially in more developed nations, I think ARPU could start sliding even faster even as growth slows.

Is SpaceX stock overvalued? Now, I'm not advocating that you short SpaceX stock -- that's a very dangerous maneuver that can easily backfire if you're wrong -- but I am saying that short-sellers will ultimately be proven right. I believe that SpaceX stock is overvalued and that the top-line growth is overshadowing some serious flaws beneath the surface.

And, remember, during the next year, nearly $6 billion of shares owned by early SpaceX  investors and employees will be unlocked and available for sale on public markets. Even a sliver of those insiders deciding to sell could put pressure on the stock price.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +9.65%) released its first earnings report as a public company earlier this month.

The results were muddled. On one hand, revenue of $7.8 billion soared 92% from the same quarter a year ago. On the other hand, capital expenditures also soared to nearly $18.7 billion, up from roughly $2.8 billion a year ago and about $10.1 billion from the prior quarter.

However, the financials are only a small part of the story as the company ramps up its various business lines. Investors may have been more interested in what Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk had to say on the company's earnings call.

Here was the most shocking piece of information Musk divulged.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.

The company expects to ramp up AI compute incredibly fast SpaceX runs a slate of businesses, one of which is the artificial intelligence (AI) division, which the company acquired through its purchase of another Musk company, xAI. XAI also includes several businesses, such as the social media platform X, Grok Intelligence, and the company's data center business.

Although Musk hopes to eventually launch data centers in space, which would ideally take advantage of the sun for power and the natural environment of space to keep the chips cool, SpaceX already has data centers on Earth.

SpaceX's Colossus data center group includes facilities in Tennessee and Mississippi with roughly 1 to 1.4 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. SpaceX has already struck major compute lease deals with Anthropic and Alphabet that could collectively generate roughly $2.2 billion of revenue per month.

And this is just the beginning, according to Musk, who told Wall Street analysts on SpaceX's earnings call that the company's terrestrial data center business should ramp quickly. Musk said he expects SpaceX to end this year with 2 GW of compute and then get close to 10 GW of compute by the end of 2027.

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Interestingly, when providing this outlook, Musk described it as "...our cumulative compute online...," implying that this compute could be ready for monetization.

That shocked me and probably most investors because building the data centers and getting them online are two completely different things. Building one is tough enough when you consider securing land and obtaining all the necessary permits, especially given the public pushback on data centers.

For instance, take the popular neocloud stock Nebius. Nebius is poised to have more than 4 GW of contracted compute power by the end of the year, but only have 800 megawatts (MW) to 1 GW fully online by year-end.

Now, Musk has argued that SpaceX is arguably the best at building data centers.

"In addition, of course, we are providing compute to others, and we are building and deploying compute, I think, faster," he told analysts on the earnings call. "Our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else. Our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest."

It would be a heroic effort Building and bringing online anywhere near 10 GW of compute by the end of 2027 would be an absolutely heroic effort.

The independent research firm SemiAnalysis estimates that building 10 GW of compute could require $300 billion to $500 billion of capital expenditures. However, the firm sees this as possible and believes it could lead to SpaceX hitting an annual revenue run rate of $300 billion, assuming only half of the compute capacity in 2027 is monetized.

This still would be an incredible feat. If it materializes or gets close, the stock should soar. However, although Musk has accomplished some pretty impressive things, he rarely does it on his projected timeline.

Investors should keep this in mind before deciding to invest in the stock, which is going to be risky and likely quite volatile, given the company's towering valuation of $1.8 trillion (as of Aug. 12).

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.65%) is bouncing back. After dropping to as low as $104 per share, the stock has climbed back above its IPO price of $135, and shares are currently trading at $145 apiece. Some may regret not investing in the rocket company while they still had the chance, but has SpaceX really bottomed out? Let's find out.

Why SpaceX is rebounding SpaceX's first lockup expiration date was Aug. 6. This refers to a set period after an IPO during which a company's insiders aren't allowed to sell their shares. Once the period expires, they are free to sell. Many investors believed that once SpaceX's insiders were legally allowed to sell their shares, they would do so in large quantities, putting downward pressure on the stock.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

This hasn't happened, which the market is interpreting as evidence that insiders are confident in the company's business. That's always a good sign. Also, SpaceX delivered solid second-quarter results. The company's revenue grew 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, while its net loss was $541 million, much lower than the $1 billion loss reported in the prior-year quarter.

True, SpaceX is investing heavily in its artificial intelligence (AI)-related ambitions. However, the fact that it was able to significantly reduce its net loss despite doing so is a great sign for the bulls. We can also point to SpaceX's internal revenue projections. CEO Elon Musk thinks the company could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

For all those reasons (and more), Wall Street is excited about the company's prospects. The Street's average price target for SpaceX (according to Yahoo! Finance) is $235.69, which represents an upside of about 62% from current levels. So Wall Street thinks it's not too late to buy the stock.

Consider the bear case What if Wall Street is being too optimistic? After all, much of SpaceX's ambitions depend on its next-gen, fully reusable rocket, Starship, which is still undergoing testing. Although it has looked promising so far, investors should consider the possibility that it falls flat in future tests. That may significantly delay the company's timelines and disrupt the business in the near term.

Even assuming that doesn't happen -- and SpaceX can avoid several other risks -- the company's valuation already assumes that many of its projects will succeed, including Starship. SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is 64, when stocks are typically deemed fairly valued below 2.

Even granting that SpaceX is worth a premium due to its dominance in the space industry and attractive opportunities elsewhere, at current levels, the market will severely punish anything short of near-perfect execution. My view is that the stock is more likely to fall than gain 62% over the next 12 months. So, investors should avoid SpaceX right now. There will likely be better entry points.

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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) shares are trading less like a newly public industrial company and more like a squeeze gathering force. The stock closed Wednesday at $146.15, jumping 9.75% for the session and 34.99% since August 5. With its market capitalization already at $1.9 trillion, any forced covering would unfold on a scale the market has rarely witnessed.

Short Interest Collapses From 34% to 11% The setup was textbook. Short interest built aggressively into the company’s first earnings report, which coincided with a 911 million share unlock. According to S3 Partners, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow was out on loan late last week, and short interest peaked near 34%.

Then the tide turned. S3 data now shows short interest has collapsed to 11% as the newly unlocked float absorbed some borrowing pressure and shorts covered into strength. Retail noticed. The top wallstreetbets thread of the week asked, “How did SPCX maintain its share price today despite adding 900,000,000 more shares?”, drawing 1,379 upvotes. Composite social sentiment sits at 82, firmly bullish.

Earnings, Grok 4.6, and the 10 Gigawatt AI Story The fundamentals gave shorts nothing to lean on. SpaceX’s Q2 revenue hit $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, adjusted EBITDA jumped 191%, and the AI segment grew 247% to $2.56 billion. Cash on hand: roughly $100 billion, with a $47.5 billion backlog.

On Wednesday, SpaceX released Grok 4.6, which Musk touted as the top model in AI. Revenue estimates for the xAI franchise have been climbing, and Anthropic is already paying to rent roughly 300 megawatts of Colossus capacity. Our earlier coverage of SemiAnalysis research found that SpaceX could realistically reach 10 gigawatts of compute by year-end 2027. Following the Colossus II buildout, current capacity stands at 1.4 gigawatts.

What Happens at the Next Unlock Prediction markets on SpaceX stock imply 61.27% upside to the $235.69 consensus target, backed by 27 Buy ratings. Put/call ratio sits at a modest 0.72, though September 25 expirations spike to 1.53, hinting at hedging around the next float event.

The bear case is simple: additional lockup expirations will keep adding supply, and Q2 capex of $18.37 billion shows how quickly the Starship and AI compute buildout burns cash. But with borrow tight, sentiment bullish, and a pending $60 billion acquisition of AI coder Cursor on the calendar, the next unlock may find a very different order book waiting for it.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.65%) CEO Elon Musk just told employees that artificial intelligence (AI) will soon out-earn everything else the company does, like launching rockets or beaming broadband internet down from space. His prediction was made during a 30-minute all-hands video released yesterday on X.

Here’s the full quote: "Probably our AI revenue -- not probably, definitely -- our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month."

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Musk bets big on AI as SpaceX's future growth engineIn the video, Musk called AI "an extremely important part of SpaceX's future" and laid out a target of 10 gigawatts (GW) of AI computing capacity by the end of next year. He put the value of that capacity at roughly $30 to $50 per watt. By his math, that works out to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion from AI alone by 2028 -- "big numbers," as he puts it.

He also described plans to train Grok, SpaceX's AI model, on the company's entire store of internal information, including the work of its employees. "So in a way, it'll be trained on you," he told staff.

Q2 results show AI gaining ground, but it's not there yetIn its second-quarter report, SpaceX brought in total revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. The AI segment contributed about $2.56 billion of that, while Connectivity -- the Starlink satellite internet business -- and Space -- the rocket business -- brought in a combined $5.25 billion.

So, while AI growth has been rapid recently thanks to new compute contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet’s Google, the segment needs to more than double, assuming the rest of the business isn’t done growing.

This isn’t out of the question in the short term, given its new contracts, however. Goldman Sachs modeled about $15.6 billion in AI revenue for all of 2026 after SpaceX signed its two massive compute deals.

The road to 10 gigawatts is paved with obstaclesAs for Musk’s 10 GW goal by the end of next year, the company has its work cut out for it. Access to power is a huge constraint, and SpaceX is already facing enormous pushback for the methane-producing gas turbines it is using to power its current data centers: Colossus 1 and 2.

Image Source: Getty Images

And that many chips alone will be difficult to come by as well. By my math, it represents a very sizeable share of all the chips Nvidia will make in that time.

The bottom lineI think the direction Musk is pointing is possible, but the timing and scale deserve skepticism. There is certainly demand, but the ability to build out this much capacity at this point is hard to wrap my head around. It will also require an absolutely enormous capital spend.

SpaceX said it spent over $25 billion last quarter on AI. If it wants to add more than 8 GW of capacity in the next 18 months, it will need to spend a whole lot more than that. The plans leave a pretty big shortfall between what it needs to spend and what it will bring in before 2027, and the company may need to find some outside funding.

And finally, while these contracts are enormous, they’re about as loose as lease deals come. Either party can exit with just a 90-day notice. That would leave SpaceX having spent all that capital without the customer it spent it on.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) experienced a significant Power Inflow alert, a key bullish indicator that is closely tracked by traders who value order flow analytics, specifically institutional and retail order flow data.

On August 12 at 10:17 AM EST, SPCX triggered a Power Inflow signal at a price of $138.39. SPCX’s price in the opening hour of trading had been mostly stagnant, even dropping slightly prior to the signal. At the time of the signal, and then thereafter, both retail and institutional trading interest in SPCX shifted toward the buy side, leading to an immediate and steady rise in the stock price, eventually reaching a post-alert high of $148.79 as of 2:30PM EST. This Power Inflow signal is intended to be a bullish indication of institutional and retail interest, highlighting where traders may be entering the market for the stock.

Understanding the Power Inflow Signal

The Power Inflow alert is a proprietary signal developed and provided by TradePulse. Issued within the first two hours of the trading day, the alert highlights moments when there is a significant shift in order flow, specifically indicating a strong trend toward buying activity. This suggests a higher probability of bullish price movement for the remainder of the trading day, making it a potentially strategic and opportune entry point for active traders.

Order flow analytics examine real-time buying and selling behavior by analyzing volume, timing, and order size across both retail and institutional participants. These insights provide a deeper understanding of price action and market sentiment, allowing traders and institutions to make more informed decisions.

SPCX Performance

At the time of the Power Inflow alert, SPCX was trading at $138.39. Following the signal:
• Intraday High As Of 2:30PM EST: $148.79 (+7.51%)

Today’s Power Inflow alert on SPCX illustrates a clear example of how real-time order flow analytics can uncover bullish momentum, particularly during periods when price action appears stagnant or even declining. Traders who bought SPCX shortly after the Power Inflow signal could have captured a significant intraday gain, emphasizing the effectiveness of TradePulse’s Power Inflow alert and the advantage of closely monitoring order flow data. These short-term gains further highlight the value of order flow analytics in identifying bullish intraday momentum and potential price reversals.

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Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX, Financials), has a new high-profile shareholder.Norway's $2.3

SpaceX stock SPCX rose around 7% on Wednesday after CEO Elon Musk outlined ambitious plans for artificial intelligence and discussed Starlink and the company’s longer-term future during an all-hands meeting with employees.

The stock rose to $142.62 after closing Tuesday down 3.9% at $133.29, putting shares back above their $135 IPO price.

Musk held the employee meeting Tuesday, with artificial intelligence emerging as a central theme.

He said AI had become an “extremely important part of SpaceX's future” and predicted that the technology could soon become the company’s largest source of revenue.

“Probably our AI revenue — not probably, definitely — our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month,” Musk said during the meeting.

“And will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter,” he added.

Musk also discussed plans for training Grok, SpaceX’s family of large language models.

“We're going to be training Grok on the sum total of all SpaceX information,” Musk said. “So in a way, it'll be trained on you.”

He said SpaceX employees would be “the parents of the AI,” adding that the system would inherit their thoughts, ideas and beliefs.

Musk did not provide details on how Grok would be trained using information from SpaceX employees.

The comments come as companies face scrutiny over the use of employee-generated data to train AI models.

Meta rolled out a program in April to train its AI models on employees’ keystrokes, a decision that drew major backlash and has since been paused.

Musk also projected that AI-based internet traffic would be 1,000 times human traffic within five years, underscoring his expectations for the technology’s growth.

Musk also highlighted Starlink, SpaceX’s space-based broadband business, saying the service had 22 million mobile subscribers.

The comments form part of Musk’s broader vision for SpaceX, which includes his goal of making humanity a multi-planetary species.

His latest AI projections suggest the company increasingly sees artificial intelligence as a major business opportunity alongside its existing space and satellite operations.

SpaceX shares have fallen sharply from their June 16 high of $201.80.

The stock had dropped more than 30% from that record ahead of the end of the first lockup period for shares on Thursday.

The expected selling pressure did not materialize, however, and shares have since recovered above their IPO price.

The next lockup period ends on August 20, a date investors are watching as additional shares could become eligible for sale.

Morgan Stanley said earlier this week that SpaceX’s artificial intelligence business could significantly increase the company’s value.

“As investors see more breadcrumbs on the Cursor/Grok story, we see potential for the implied valuation discount on SpaceX’s AI business to lift, driving potentially substantial appreciation of the stock,” analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a report to clients.

Jonas said few investors currently appear bullish on SpaceX’s AI business beyond its neocloud operations, creating what he described as an upside-skewed catalyst path at current levels.

Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX shares.

Short sellers betting against SpaceX are rapidly retreating from the trade, just as the newly public stock rebounds from its post-IPO slump.

Short interest in SpaceX fell to about 11% of the company's publicly traded shares Wednesday, down sharply from a peak of 34% last week, according to S3 Partners. The decline reflects a combination of bearish investors closing out positions and a significant expansion of the stock's tradable float following the first major lockup expiration.

"Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets," said Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3 Partners. "Only so much money you can put into a trade."

The exodus came as SpaceX shares staged a sharp rebound from their post-earnings sell-off, with short covering potentially adding fuel to the advance. Investors closing bearish positions must buy back shares, which can amplify upward moves when a stock is already rallying.

Shares jumped 8% Wednesday to around $144, lifting the stock about 7% above its $135 IPO price and roughly 38% above its Aug. 3 low.

SpaceX since IPO

SpaceX has endured a roller-coaster ride since going public. The stock initially tumbled after the rocket and satellite company disclosed in its first earnings report last week that capital expenditures were more than twice its revenue, fueling concerns about the enormous spending required to fund its ambitions.

The sell-off attracted a wave of short sellers, pushing short interest to unusually elevated levels relative to the stock's limited public float. Short selling involves borrowing shares and selling them in hopes of buying them back later at a lower price.

That dynamic changed substantially last Thursday, when just over 911 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading following the expiration of an initial lockup period. The newly unlocked tranche represented roughly 7% of the company's shares outstanding and exceeded the 639 million shares sold in the IPO.

The larger float mechanically reduced short interest as a percentage of tradable shares. But short covering has also contributed to the decline, according to S3, as investors who had wagered against SpaceX bought back stock to exit their positions.

More supply is coming. On Aug. 20, another 319 million shares could unlock, followed by roughly 700 million in September and close to that number in October, according to the prospectus.

The additional shares could create fresh volatility by giving employees and early investors more opportunities to sell. At the same time, the larger float would make it easier for investors to establish new short positions if bearish sentiment returns.