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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -0.31%) won a $1.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force to fly 18 missions with Falcon 9, the company’s current workhorse rocket. The flights are scheduled to finish by the end of 2027.

What the Space Force contract means for SpaceX's launch businessThe total award comes out to roughly $89 million per launch and will help bolster the company’s space launch segment, which reported $4.1 billion in sales in 2025.

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The unit generated $653 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) -- a rough stand-in for operating profit -- in the same year, carrying 2,213 metric tons into orbit.

Falcon 9 has handled about 70% of the launches conducted globally (excluding China), making it not just the company’s work-horse, but the world’s.

Why the stock has fallen more than 40% since its record IPOAn award of this size isn’t outside the scope of normal contract size for SpaceX, but it comes at a pretty critical time for the company. After its record-setting IPO in which it raised more than $85 billion (well over twice that of the now second largest), the company’s stock has fallen more than 40% from the peak in the days following the IPO.

Two primary worries have driven SpaceX’s stock slide. One, valuation -- the stock was trading at roughly 100 times its annual sales, meaning buyers were paying more than $100 for every $1 of revenue the company brought in last year. That is far, far more than is normal for a company of its size, especially one in a capital-intensive industry.

And two, supply: IPO lockup restrictions expire, and insiders who had been barred from selling become free to unload shares very soon. The first lockup will double the amount of shares available for public sale.

Image Source: Company Images

SpaceX by the numbers: Revenue, losses, and debtSpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025. The net loss that year came to $4.9 billion. The first quarter of 2026 brought in $4.7 billion of revenue, and the loss over those same three months ran to roughly $4.3 billion -- nearly matching the whole of 2025 in a single quarter. Long-term debt stood at about $29 billion.

The first earnings report as a public company comes on Aug. 4.

Is this contract a game changer? Here's my take$1.6 billion is real money, and the launch franchise behind it is about as dominant as a business gets, but I don't think this contract changes the investment case much. Spread over 18 flights and roughly a year and a half, it is a modest addition to a segment that did over $4 billion in sales last year.

The bigger question hanging over this stock is AI. SpaceX now leases data-center capacity to Alphabet and to Anthropic, the maker of Claude, and will bring in billions a month doing so.

This is a major pivot, and in my eyes, is more of a short-term stopgap to stem the incredible cash bleed the AI unit has been experiencing. The terms of these deals are unusually lax, allowing for their termination by either party for any reason in a matter of months. And long term, if SpaceX believed its Grok model could compete in the market, would it be smart to divert precious compute capacity to competitors?

SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX has lost almost half its value since reaching a high of $225.64 on June 16, turning the excitement surrounding the listing into a lesson about valuation and share supply.

The stock closed Wednesday at $112.55, around 17% below its $135 IPO price and 50.2% beneath the peak.

More than $1 trillion in market value has disappeared despite progress in Starship testing and demand for launch and Starlink services.

Jim Cramer remains optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects, but he believes investors planning a large purchase should wait until after the company reports earnings and the first insider lock-up expires.

SpaceX will publish its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Two days later, roughly 911.5 million restricted shares are expected to become eligible for trading.

IPO lock-ups prevent founders, employees and early investors from selling their holdings.

Their expiration does not guarantee that every eligible share will be sold, but it increases the available supply and can pressure prices when demand is already fragile.

Cramer said investors could “maybe buy a little” before the event, according to CNBC, but urged anyone considering a major position to wait.

His concern is that an encouraging earnings report may struggle to offset the prospect of more stock entering the market.

SpaceX used a staggered lock-up structure rather than a conventional single 180-day restriction.

Further portions will become tradable over the following months, keeping the supply overhang alive beyond August.

That makes Cramer’s argument about timing rather than the company’s direction.

Strong results could spark a rebound, but disappointing financial details combined with insider selling could push the shares closer to $100.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 target.

Barron’s reported that he values SpaceX’s established launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share.

Jonas argued that a price near $100 would effectively assign no value to the company’s artificial-intelligence operations.

That could create an opportunity if SpaceX turns its computing infrastructure, xAI relationship and proposed orbital data centres into durable revenue.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken an even more aggressive position, assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 target.

The Financial Times reported that the forecast assumes SpaceX becomes a foundational platform spanning launch, satellite communications, national security and AI infrastructure.

The bearish case is that SpaceX still carries a valuation supported heavily by future businesses.

Starlink must produce durable margins, Starship must achieve reliable reusability and AI investments must generate enough revenue to justify enormous capital needs.

CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target.

Business Insider reported that Snyder admired the company’s vision but believed its financial disclosures did not yet justify the valuation.

HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson also started coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 target, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s launch leadership but caution over its broader ambitions.

The August 4 report must provide evidence on cash burn, Starlink economics, capital expenditure and the timeline for emerging AI projects.

SpaceX SPCX is set to report its first quarterly earnings as a publicly listed company on August 4, but investors are increasingly focused on another event that could have an even bigger impact on its share price.

Two business days after the earnings release, the company's first lock-up period will expire, allowing pre-IPO investors to sell nearly one billion shares—significantly more than the number sold during SpaceX's record-breaking public offering in June.

The stock has endured a volatile start since its $86 billion listing.

After climbing almost 50% during its first three trading sessions, shares have steadily retreated, falling as low as $110.85 last week, or about 18% below the IPO price, before closing Friday at $115.07.

Lock-up periods prevent company insiders and early investors from selling their holdings immediately after a stock market listing.

Once the restrictions expire, a substantial increase in available shares can weigh on prices if investors decide to cash out.

Nearly 629 million shares were sold during SpaceX's June 12 IPO, but almost one billion additional shares will become eligible for sale after the first lock-up expires in early August.

Over the next year, more than 6.4 billion shares could ultimately enter the market.

While there is no certainty that all eligible investors will sell, market participants expect at least some increase in supply that could place further pressure on the stock.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that some investors expect the shares to fall further, potentially reaching $100 after the lock-up expires.

At that level, he argues, the market would effectively be assigning little or no value to SpaceX's AI business.

"Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor," Jonas wrote.

"Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business."

Jonas has a $300 price target on SpaceX, with more than half of that valuation attributed to the company's AI operations.

Jonas believes the recent weakness has created an attractive entry point.

"We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares," he added.

SpaceX's AI division operates two Colossus data centres, which together constitute the world's largest AI training cluster.

Leveraging its reusable rocket technology, satellite network and artificial intelligence capabilities, the company plans to eventually offer AI cloud computing services from space-based data centres.

It argues that abundant solar energy in orbit and naturally colder temperatures could help overcome the power consumption and cooling constraints faced by conventional terrestrial facilities.

In its SEC filing ahead of the IPO, SpaceX said it believes it is uniquely positioned to commercialise orbital AI computing at scale.

"We believe we are the only company with a commercially viable path to building orbital AI compute at scale," the company said in its Form S-1. SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with AI products and services accounting for $26.5 trillion of that opportunity.

Wall Street remains bullish on SPCXSpaceX's decline comes amid broader investor caution toward companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence.

Technology firms have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure in recent quarters, prompting concerns about rising capital expenditure and delayed returns on investment.

Those worries have been amplified by a fragile macroeconomic backdrop and heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which have lifted oil prices and dampened appetite for risk assets.

Despite those concerns, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly positive on SpaceX's longer-term prospects.

According to Bloomberg data, nearly 80% of analysts covering the company recommend buying the shares.

The average price target stands at around $232, implying the stock could more than double from current levels.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase—all of which worked alongside Morgan Stanley on SpaceX's IPO—have maintained buy-equivalent ratings on the company.

Among the 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, Jonas remains one of the most optimistic, with his $300 target ranking as the third highest on Wall Street.

A little over a month ago, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) completed the largest IPO in history. Initially, SpaceX stock surged, briefly touching an intraday high above $225 per share and eclipsing Amazon's market capitalization.

However, over the last few weeks, SpaceX stock has witnessed significant pressure. As of the closing bell Thursday, shares were down by 48% from their post-IPO high, and off 21% from their opening price on the first day of trading. With SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company scheduled for Aug. 4, is now an opportunity to buy the dip?

Image source: Getty Images.

What does Wall Street expect for SpaceX earnings? The consensus estimate among analysts is that SpaceX will report revenue of roughly $6.9 billion and a loss of $0.28 per share for the second quarter. While this would represent a 47% increase from the company's first-quarter revenue, the bottom line is expected to remain deeply negative -- underscoring the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX's various businesses.

Keep an eye out for these issues on the earnings call Analysts will likely press management for information on a number of operational issues. For starters, they will want details about Starship Flight 13, which SpaceX was forced to scrub at launch earlier this month.

Wall Street will almost certainly ask questions about SpaceX's AI roadmap as well. Specifically, management should touch on progress around its $82 billion worth of capacity contracts with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI, and also address the integration of the company's recent $60 billion Cursor acquisition.

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Smart investors understand that timing stock purchases around a single event is a fool's errand. Employing a long-term horizon and a steady investing cadence remains the most reliable approach to creating wealth.

Currently, it is simply too difficult to know whether SpaceX stock is a falling knife or simply undergoing a temporary correction. Prudent investors would be best off sitting on the sidelines until the company reports earnings. Then, they can digest the numbers and management's commentary before making a decision about whether to buy shares.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Investors betting on SpaceX SPCX shares are buying into more than just reusable orbital rockets and a global satellite internet network – they are purchasing a ticket to the visionary leadership of Elon Musk.

However, according to a recent analysis from HSBC, that celebrated “Musk factor” may already be fully priced into the equity.

Analysts at the bank initiated coverage on the aerospace pioneer with a Hold rating and a $115 target price, indicating absence of any meaningful upside from current levels.

Note that SpaceX stock has been in a sharp downtrend in recent weeks. At writing, it’s trading even below its IPO price of $135.

Standard financial formulas used for traditional conglomerates, SPACs, or biotech firms simply fail to reflect how the market rates elite founders who reshape global industries.

To capture this reality, HSBC departed from classic metrics and built a custom sum-of-the-parts model featuring a 2x “innovation premium”.

The benchmark for this multiplier was drawn directly from Tesla’s first decade on public markets, leveraging Musk’s established track record in disruptive manufacturing and commercial deployment.

The bank noted that while analysts often apply holding company discounts, special founder premiums are warranted when leaders consistently upend whole sectors.

Yet even with this generous multiplier factored in, HSBC concludes that current market prices leave very little room for short-term upside on SPCX shares.

The core takeaway from HSBC’s base-case framework is that today’s market valuation already anticipates seamless execution across SpaceX’s main business pillars.

Investors have fully embedded expectations for Starlink's expanding global subscriber footprint, high-frequency Falcon launch manifests, and early-stage spatial artificial intelligence initiatives.

However, the report cautions that for SpaceX shares to breach higher territory, the company must overdeliver; HSBC did outline an optimistic  “blue sky” scenario valuation of $293 per share.

But achieving it requires aggressive operational milestones: commercial viability for the next-generation Starship rocket by 2027, doubling overall launch throughput relative to base estimates, extracting significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from Starlink, and securing top-tier software multiples for its internal AI infrastructure.

While long-term bulls point to that $293 optimistic view, short-term realities on the trading floor reflect heightened scrutiny.

SPCX stock has faced headwinds following technical delays around its pivotal 13th Starship test flight and market anxiety over massive insider share unlock periods approaching in August.

While institutional backers continue to view Starship as the key to unlocking exponential payload scale, HSBC’s balanced stance highlights that execution risks cannot be ignored.

Until SpaceX consistently proves out Starship's full orbital reusability and commercial monetization, the stock appears bound to its fundamental trajectory, leaving the famous Musk premium firmly baked into the price for now.

When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.73%), also known as SpaceX, went public on June 12, only about 4.9% of its 13.2 billion shares were put up for sale, an unusually small public float.

But that percentage is set to more than double in August as many owners of pre-IPO shares will be partially released from the standard lock-up agreements.

This week, the space exploration, satellite, and artificial intelligence firm headed by Elon Musk announced that it will deliver its first earnings report as a public company on Aug. 4. As per the rules set out in the company's prospectus, two trading days later, pre-IPO shareholders will be able to sell some 911 million of their locked-up shares, bringing the float to about 12%. Even more shares will be released if the stock trades at 30% above its IPO price on five of the 10 trading days prior to the earnings release.

Image source: Getty Images.

Essentially, the 180-day lock-up agreement expires in tranches, with more shares set to be released in September, November, and December. Elon Musk and some other significant investors are subject to a one-year lock-up. Musk owns around 40% of SpaceX shares, though he controls more than 80% of the company's voting power through a dual-class share structure.

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And as SpaceX employees begin to liquidate their holdings to diversify out of the company's stock -- a normal occurrence after companies go public -- that selling could put downward pressure on the share price.

So, should you pick up a few SpaceX shares?

Well, that's a tricky question. After an initial bump in the first few days after the IPO, when investors bid the stock above $225, it has since retreated and now trades at around $121 a share, well below the $135 IPO price. Such price movement in an IPO stock is not unusual, but given that SpaceX is not yet profitable, it may take investors a while to regain their initial enthusiasm.

Matthew Benjamin has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.08%) had to abort its 13th Starship test flight after some of its engines failed to ignite. Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable super-heavy-lift vehicle, and once it's ready to operate commercially, it could significantly reduce the cost of putting payloads into space, such as Starlink satellites or orbital data center satellites. Getting it off the ground (pun intended) will be key to the company achieving revenue growth and earnings that meet the market's high expectations.

SpaceX will have another go at the Starship test launch, and many more tests and launches will come over the next few years. A single aborted launch does not significantly impact the company's long-term viability.

The bigger risk to SpaceX and its investors involves what will happen if it successfully brings Starship into service: The company will need to raise massive amounts of capital over the better part of the next decade, even based on some of the most bullish outlooks for the business.

Image source: Getty Images.

This SpaceX bull just highlighted a major risk to the stock Morgan Stanley analysts have put a $300 price target on SpaceX stock. They cite its "near-monopoly launch economics," which will enable its satellite connectivity and AI businesses to scale up at a cost advantage.

Indeed, SpaceX can already launch its low earth orbit satellites for Starlink at a lower cost than any rival. And its technology also enables it to launch rockets at a higher cadence than anyone else. It can build faster and cheaper than anyone in the rocket launch industry.

But SpaceX is competing with terrestrial telecom companies and data centers. That's why Starship, which can carry much larger payloads and can be rebuilt and relaunched faster than SpaceX's current Falcon rockets, will be essential to scaling the business further.

Morgan Stanley sees Starship opening the door to serious revenue growth, but it will also require substantial capital to scale that business to the levels its analysts estimate. In fact, the analysts don't expect SpaceX to produce positive free cash flow until 2035. They estimate the company's average cash burn at $84 billion per year between 2027 and 2034, with capital expenditures peaking in 2031 at $300 billion.

In other words, SpaceX will need to raise about $700 billion in additional capital. "If debt markets cannot absorb this financing need, SpaceX may need to issue equity, reduce growth investment, or slow deployment," lead analyst Adam Jonas wrote in his note to investors.

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Importantly, SpaceX isn't the only tech company with significant financial demands. We've seen the major hyperscalers issue both debt and equity this year to raise cash to fund their AI data center build-outs. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates this year due to elevated inflation.

As a result, the cost of capital is rising. That could mean SpaceX will have to pay higher interest rates on whatever bonds it issues. Or, if the bond market cannot absorb another $700 billion of SpaceX's debt, its stock price will likely decline as it dilutes shareholders by raising funds via new equity issues.

The other option would be for SpaceX to raise less capital and slow its Starship, Starlink, and orbital data center build-outs. But that will lead to slower growth and, subsequently, a lower stock price.

SpaceX's capital requirements are a huge overhang on the stock, no matter how it raises that cash. Investors need to be aware of that risk, even if they're bullish on the technology.

© Marco Bello/Getty Images

Cathie Wood is doing the Cathie Wood thing again. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction)  is down 38% from its recent peak and trading below its IPO price; the lockup clock is ticking, and the founder of the firm that manages $30 billion in assets just told Fox Business on July 22, 2026, that the company “could become the most important company in history.” Not the decade. History. ARK is buying more instead of trimming.

The underlying claim is more interesting than the headline, because Wood is not defending a rocket business anymore. She is defending an AI holding company that happens to own the world’s cheapest way to leave the atmosphere. The public-market proxies for this thesis, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), tell you what the market thinks of the space-and-AI trade right now. Tesla is down 14% year to date, and Rocket Lab is down 27% over the past month. Wood is buying anyway.

The Moat Wood Is Actually Defending “SpaceX has a first mover advantage. It will be difficult. It has a ten year lead and the key has been reusable rockets.” That decade of iteration shows up in one number that matters more than any valuation multiple. SpaceX controls 70% of satellites in orbit. Reusable boosters are the reason. Every competitor has to build the flywheel from zero while SpaceX is already spinning it.

Rocket Lab is the closest publicly traded pure-play alternative, and Peter Beck’s team is running the correct playbook. Q1 2026 revenue hit $200.35 million, up 63.46% year over year, with a backlog of $2.20 billion and non-GAAP gross margins of 43.0%. Neutron, the medium-lift vehicle meant to compete with Falcon 9, is targeted for its debut launch later in 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure pushed the timeline. That is the state of “second place” in launch. Impressive, growing, and still years behind.

The Real Thesis Is Orbital Data Centers Rockets are the setup. The punchline is compute. Wood argued that “The secret to scaling technologies is falling costs as units increase… SpaceX has a first mover advantage with 70% of the satellites and beyond that we have the global data centers, orbital data centers so they will be the most economic and will allow Elon and team the opportunity to develop… some of the most sophisticated frontier models in the world at the lowest cost.”

If you own launch, you own the cheapest way to put racks of GPUs into orbit where solar is free, and cooling is a physics problem instead of a water bill. The GAO flagged this exact concept in April, noting that data centers could account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028 and that since January 2026, the FCC has received three applications from U.S. companies for large satellite constellations operating as data centers. Wood says SpaceX is already renting data center capacity to Anthropic and Google. If that scales, the company competes with hyperscalers, not Boeing (NYSE:BA).

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Tesla is the tell. Tesla disclosed a roughly $2 billion equity investment in SpaceX in Q1 2026 and is partnering with SpaceX on a vertically integrated semiconductor fab at Gigafactory Texas. Elon is stitching his companies into one AI-industrial stack. The Q1 filing shows where the money moves.

The Multi-Trillion Stack Versus the $116 Billion Unlock Wood’s final flourish stacks the businesses on top of each other. “Ultimately SpaceX when they combine the most powerful, the robotaxi opportunity, the orbital data center opportunity… There are lots of opportunities and they are multi trillion dollar opportunities.” She also framed AI productivity as a generational advantage for U.S. companies, with Chinese competitors looking less efficient despite throwing raw compute at the problem.

Now the ugly part. SpaceX is set to unlock $116 billion in shares after IPO restrictions lift. That is a supply wave arriving into a stock already down 38%. Prediction markets are pricing 96.4% odds against S&P 500 inclusion in 2026, meaning index-fund buying will not rescue the float. Nasdaq-100 inclusion is already resolved yes, which helps, but does not neutralize the coming supply.

Wood’s thesis is coherent and more sophisticated than the headline suggests. The launch moat is real, the orbital compute angle is not science fiction, and the Tesla-SpaceX-xAI convergence is happening in filings. Whether you buy the dip depends on whether you can sit through the unlock. Wood can. Most retail cannot.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Elon Musk warned that investors betting against SpaceX have little chance of survival — even as short sellers boosted their wagers against the company to about one-third of its publicly tradable shares ahead of several key catalysts.

About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 32% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in notional bearish bets, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That's up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just last week, and marks a dramatic increase from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, about a month ago.

"We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company's first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.

Musk responded to the growing short interest in a post on X, predicting investors betting against the company would ultimately lose.

"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote. "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true."

SpaceX one month

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The results will give investors their first detailed look at SpaceX's performance since its initial public offering and could provide a fresh test for both bulls and short sellers.

The growing bearish position comes as investors weigh SpaceX's long-term prospects against its valuation and the possibility of additional shares becoming available after lock-up restrictions expire. Bulls point to the company's leadership in launch services, Starlink's expansion, and its artificial intelligence ambitions, while skeptics have questioned how much future growth is already reflected in the stock.

SpaceX shares rose about 7% on Tuesday, on pace to snap a seven-session losing streak after analysts at Macquarie reiterated their outperform rating and urged investors to buy the recent weakness. The stock climbed to around $128, though it remains below its $135 IPO price following a sharp post-listing pullback.

SpaceX employees gather to watch Booster 20 as it rolls out of the SpaceX production facility for the launch pad as preparations continue for the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

July 19 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Thursday, July 23, for another ​attempt to launch its Starship rocket, the company ‌said in a statement on Sunday.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X later on Sunday that the next Starship launch would ​occur on Friday, contradicting the earlier statement from ​his company. He did not say whether the ⁠original Thursday date was wrong.

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On July 16, ​SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its ​13th flight test from Texas, which erased about $100 billion from the company's market value.

SpaceX said it has modified Starship's propulsion system ​to address the engine issue experienced on the previous ​flight.

A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known ‌for ⁠dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon.

On Friday, SpaceX said it would attempt the launch on July 20.

The company has launched 12 Starship test flights ​since 2023.

On its ​13th flight ⁠test, Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink ​network's laser communication links, but those satellites ​will ⁠follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.

In its prospectus, SpaceX said that ⁠it ​aims to launch the first Starlink ​satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed by routine ​launches.

Reporting by Gursimran Kaur in Bengaluru; Editing by Matthew Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

While investors spent the week focused on a brutal sell-off in chip stocks, rocket maker and satellite internet company SpaceX (SPCX 5.41%) quietly kept falling. Shares slid 5.4% on Friday to close at $123.99. That marked a sixth straight daily decline, an all-time closing low for the stock's brief public life, and a level below the $135 price from its June initial public offering (IPO).

The slide has been more of a drip than a crash, which may be why many investors haven't registered it. But the cumulative damage is significant.

Shares peaked at $225.64 shortly after their debut, so the stock has lost about 45% of its value in roughly a month.

So is this newly cheaper SpaceX finally worth buying? I don't think so.

Elon Musk at the White House. Image source: The White House.

Why the stock keeps sliding There hasn't been a single blow. Instead, several pressures have stacked up.

In late June, SpaceX priced $25 billion of senior notes in its first bond offering as a public company. The notes come due between 2031 and 2056, at interest rates running from 5.35% to 6.65%. Management said the proceeds would repay the borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full (debt largely tied to folding Elon Musk's xAI and X into SpaceX ahead of the IPO), with anything left over going to general corporate purposes (likely including more AI infrastructure). The offering was a reminder of just how expensive the company's artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions will be.

Then came this week's AI reckoning. Semiconductor stocks sold off hard as investors questioned whether the boom in AI infrastructure spending can persist. That reassessment has been a headwind for anything priced on AI ambitions, and SpaceX, which is now part rocket maker, part satellite internet provider, and part AI company, qualifies.

Finally, on Thursday, the company aborted a Starship test flight moments before launch.

"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," Musk wrote on X.

A scrubbed launch is a routine setback. But it capped off a rough week.

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Cheaper isn't the same as cheap What matters more is what investors actually get at $124. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, and it lost $4.9 billion for the year.

Starlink, the company's satellite internet service, is the engine. The segment produced $11.4 billion of revenue in 2025, or 61% of the company total. And its subscriber base keeps climbing, compounding from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 8.9 million at the end of 2025 to 10.3 million by the end of March. That is exceptional growth.

However, the average Starlink customer is paying less over time. Monthly revenue per user has stepped down from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026. In other words, Starlink's growth is coming from adding users, not from charging them more. That's fine for now, but it could become a problem if subscriber growth ever slows.

The AI business is the expensive part. That segment, built around xAI, generated just $3.2 billion of revenue in 2025. It's also behind most of the new debt -- the June bond sale retires borrowings SpaceX took on to bring xAI in-house.

Now for the valuation. At $124 per share, SpaceX still commands a market value of about $1.6 trillion. That works out to more than 80 times the company's trailing sales, for a business losing billions of dollars a year. For perspective, a multiple of 20 is often considered generous for a fast-growing company when it's based on earnings -- not sales.

Put another way, even with the stock down about 45%, the market is still pricing in a future in which Starlink keeps compounding, Starship works, and the AI bet pays off in a big way -- all at once.

Of course, SpaceX owns assets nobody else has: the world's dominant rocket program and a satellite internet business without a true peer.

And investors will learn a lot soon. The company's first quarterly report since going public is coming, and insider lockup expirations begin rolling off in August.

But owning singular assets doesn't automatically make a stock worth more than 80 times sales. At $124, shares are arguably cheaper than they've ever been -- and still not cheap.

Super Heavy v3 Booster 20 hangs from the chop sticks at Pad 2 as it prepares to roll back to the SpaceX launch production facility in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 17, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to replace two booster Raptor engines before the next launch attempt, Musk saidFour of the booster's 33 engines did not ignite during Thursday's aborted test flightStarship could carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight test, the company saidWASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Monday for another attempt to ​launch its Starship rocket after a last-second abort during engine ignition on Thursday, a brief setback that nevertheless wiped roughly $100 billion from the newly public ‌company's market value.

The company's Starship rocket ignited its engines for a 13th test flight from Texas, but stopped short of lifting off when an automated abort command shut the engines down early. Four of the Starship booster's 33 engines did not ignite, according to a live SpaceX depiction of the booster's engines.

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A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known for ​dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon. Still, SpaceX shares have dropped by roughly 6% to $124.30 since the abort, erasing roughly $100 ​billion in equity value.

Musk wrote on X that the abort was triggered because "some of the engines didn't start." SpaceX on Friday ⁠hoisted the Starship upper stage off its Super Heavy booster and plans to replace two of the booster's Raptor engines "to be confident of a good flight," Musk ​said, without explaining why some engines didn't start.

"Most probable launch timing is early next week," he added. SpaceX's website said Starship could launch "as early as Monday, July ​20."

The share price drop offers an early glimpse into how the newly public company's investors might judge the progress of a high-tech rocket program on which SpaceX's most lofty ambitions rely.

The stock had already been sliding from a post-IPO high of $225.64 and fell below SpaceX's $135 IPO price on Wednesday. The abort accelerated the decline.

"If this is how the market reacts to a precautionary ​abort, I can't wait to see how it responds to a successful flight," Chad Anderson, CEO of Space Capital and a SpaceX investor since 2017, said via ​text message.

"Zoom out and none of this changes the thesis: we're in the early innings of a multi-decade infrastructure cycle, and Starship is the centerpiece," he added. "Day-to-day price action is ‌noise against ⁠the backdrop. This is a long-term opportunity."

Some SpaceX employees on X, which is owned by SpaceX, sought to explain the abort and delay to next week.

Director of Starship engineering Shana Diez said on X that the Thursday launch scrub was the first time a fully stacked Starship rocket lit its engines and then aborted.

"While similar to a wet dress rehearsal," she said, referring to a practice run of a rocket launch, "there is a lot going on and any first time operation comes with ​additional risk."

"This is how we learn safely ​and implement mitigations for all scenarios," ⁠said Jessie Anderson, a Starship production engineer who sometimes hosts the company's launch live streams.

PRESSURE RISINGSpaceX has launched 12 Starship test flights since 2023, some ending in explosive failures and other hard testing setbacks that have become hallmarks of SpaceX's test-to-failure development ethos, ​a risky and capital-intensive approach that has been key to the company's quick growth.

But the pressure is rising for Starship ​to begin operational flights ⁠after nearly a decade in development and over $15 billion spent so far.

Two pillars of SpaceX's future growth hinge on Starship: expanding the Starlink network to beam service directly to mobile devices and eventually launching thousands to potentially a million AI-processing satellites into space.

SpaceX aims to launch the first Starlink satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed ⁠by routine ​launches, the company said in its prospectus.

Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight ​test to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink network's laser communication links, but those satellites will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.

The rocket will launch ​out of Florida for the first time "potentially" by year's end, SpaceX engineer Kate Tice said Thursday on the Starship live stream.

Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.

Key Takeaways SPCX reached about 10.3M Starlink subscribers with service available in 164 countries and markets.SpaceX continues investing in technology and network expansion to strengthen its broadband services.SPCX is expanding satellite-to-mobile services through operator partnerships covering about 1.7B people. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX - Free Report) is benefiting from the rapid expansion of its Starlink broadband business. Solid subscriber addition, expanding global coverage and continuous improvement in networking capacity are major driving factors. As of March 31, 2026, the company boasts a subscriber base of around 10.3 million. With approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit, Starlink service is available in 164 countries and markets. Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, showing that satellite broadband has moved beyond the concept stage.

SpaceX's key differentiation lies in its launch leadership, which enables faster Starlink network expansion. SpaceX has completed around 650 orbital launches, including 620 Falcon 9 missions. The mission success rate exceeds 99%. Its reusable launch systems and capability to conduct frequent launches in a short period have significantly lowered satellite deployment costs.

The company places a strong focus on technology upgrades to improve customer experience. Its satellite constellation operates in low earth orbit, allowing significantly lower latency compared to legacy satellite systems. Its architecture can deliver residential download speeds of approximately 225 Mbps during peak hours. Moreover, the company’s ability to launch upgraded satellites frequently ensures continuous network advancements.

Through its Starlink business, the company is working to open up a new growth avenue. It has developed one of the largest satellite-to-mobile constellations, and its services include messaging, voice and data. The company is collaborating with leading mobile network operators across six continents, covering approximately 1.7 billion people.

How Are Competitors Faring?In the satellite communication space, SpaceX faces competition from Viasat, Inc. (VSAT - Free Report) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS - Free Report) . AST SpaceMobile is developing a direct-to-device satellite network. Its commercial deployment remains at an earlier stage. The company recently announced the successful orbital launch of BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket. The satellites feature approximately 2,400-square-foot communications arrays and are designed to provide direct broadband connectivity to standard smartphones. AST SpaceMobile also announced that BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 are targeted for launch during the first half of August aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral. With a growing ecosystem that includes 60 global mobile network operator partners covering over 3 billion subscribers, ASTS is gaining ground on the expanding direct-to-device space.

Viasat has completed the next-generation global ViaSat-3 constellation with the successful launch of ViaSat-3 Flight 3 on April 29, 2026, targeted to the Asia-Pacific region. Management said radiator and solar array deployments were completed and orbit raising is underway, with service entry expected in August or September 2026. ViaSat-3 Flight 2 also completed all deployments, including the reflectors and boom, with service entry pending FCC authorization. The ViaSat-3 class is designed to deliver more than 1 Tbps of throughput capacity and to use advanced beamforming and flexible bandwidth allocation so capacity can be directed to the highest-demand commercial, enterprise and defense markets.

SPCX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesOver the past month, shares of SpaceX have declined 32.6% against the industry’s growth of 114.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, SPCX trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 30.51, well above the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have increased over the past 30 days. Earnings estimates for 2026 have improved from a loss of 91 cents to a loss of 67 cents, while for 2027, they have improved from a loss of 23 cents to an income of 63 cents per share.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%) has had a volatile first month as a publicly traded company. Its share price rose to as much as $225, but as of writing, it has sunk back near its $135 IPO price, currently trading just $1 above it. Opinions on SpaceX's prospects are divided. The bulls will argue that, given its large addressable market and leadership in core markets, including space travel and satellite-based internet services, the stock could produce outstanding returns over the long run.

The bears will point out that SpaceX remains unprofitable, and its financial results and outlook hardly justify a $1.8 trillion valuation. Time will tell who is right, but recent news from the company was a bit of a win for the bulls. Let's look into these recent developments and what they could mean for the stock.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Starlink could become a bigger growth engine First, let's briefly review SpaceX's Starlink, which is currently its most profitable business. It offers high-speed internet through a network of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, with speeds ranging from 100 Mbps (megabits per second) to over 400 Mbps. This isn't the fastest speed, not by a long shot. Fiber internet is much faster, with some legacy providers offering speeds well above 1000 Mbps.

Some customers still opt for Starlink right now because they live in rural and other traditionally underserved areas. However, SpaceX wants Starlink to be more mainstream. The company recently filed a request with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy up to 100,000 of its new Gen3 Starlink satellites.

There are several things to note about this proposal. Let's focus on two. First, Starlink currently has a bit over 10,400 satellites in orbit -- so 100,000 would be a substantial increase. With far more satellites in space, Starlink's internet speeds could improve dramatically. Second, SpaceX wants to launch this constellation in very low Earth orbit, rather than the LEO satellites it currently operates.

This is another factor that would boost speed. SpaceX isn't shy about its ambitions here. The company is looking to build a network of satellites that could handle the majority of the world's internet traffic.

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SpaceX has some things to address first This is an ambitious proposal, but there are several problems. One is that, given how quickly SpaceX currently builds Starlink satellites, it will take a long time to manufacture 100,000 of them, let alone launch them into space. The company produced an average of 70 satellites per week at its Redmond, Washington facility between December 2025 and April 2026.

That's just 3,640 annually. At that pace, it will take over 27 years to make 100,000 of them. SpaceX will have to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity to reach its ambitious goals. Also, while SpaceX uses its partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets to launch its V2 Starlink satellites into space as of now -- with the rocket capable of carrying up to 29 per trip -- the Gen3 Starlink satellites are much bigger. That's another reason why SpaceX developed Starship, a next-gen, fully reusable rocket with a much bigger payload capacity.

Starship is still in the flight-test phase, but it is clearly central to SpaceX's future, including its space travel ambitions and its ability to substantially expand Starlink's reach.

Is the stock a buy? Improving and expanding its Starlink business could make SpaceX a much more profitable company in the long run, but it still needs regulatory approval for its constellation of 100,000 satellites. And then it will have to figure out the logistics of getting them into space in a reasonable time frame. These aren't insurmountable issues, but the company could encounter setbacks, launch delays, or other potential headwinds with its plans. Investors need to factor all that in.

Further, several other companies are working hard to compete with SpaceX's Starlink (and other business segments, for that matter). SpaceX might be the runaway leader right now -- no company has nearly as many satellites in orbit -- but that could change in the long run. So, although the bulls are right that SpaceX's opportunities are massive, there is plenty of risk as well, and my view is that the stock is a buy, but at a much lower price. That's why I'd wait for a steeper pullback before initiating a position.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has cleared SpaceX to fly Starship prototypes again, after the company identified the probable cause of the failure of the rocket system’s booster stage during a flight in May.

SpaceX said over the weekend that the next flight of Starship could happen as soon as this Thursday, July 16. It would be the second-ever launch of the third version, or V3, of Starship. SpaceX also said that this Starship will carry the first third-generation Starlink satellites to space. Previously, Starship had only carried dummy versions of the larger, more powerful internet satellites.

This is SpaceX’s second test flight of its Starship system, and its first as a public company, testing the market’s appetite for the company’s “fly, fail, fix” approach to rocket development that often ends in fireballs — or, as CEO Elon Musk calls the explosions: “rapid unscheduled disassembly.” SpaceX completed its IPO and publicly listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange on June 12, making it one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world and raising nearly $86 billion, a record.

SpaceX’s first test launch of the V3 Starship on May 22 was largely successful. The company’s Super Heavy booster lifted the 407-foot rocket into space before the upper stage section separated and deployed 20 satellite simulators along with two modified Starlinks that recorded footage of the Starship exterior.

The new third-generation booster was supposed to return to Earth and perform a simulated landing in the Gulf of Mexico. But its engines didn’t properly re-ignite, and it instead plummeted into the water below.

The problem happened at that moment of booster separation, according to SpaceX and the FAA. SpaceX said in a post published over the weekend that “slight differences in engine startup on the ship” caused the Booster to turn 90 degrees in the wrong direction. SpaceX said it has modified this engine startup sequence to allow the booster to “more reliably flip in the desired direction” and that the booster has been modified to “improve re-light reliability.”

The FAA said in a statement Monday that the most probable root causes of the Super Heavy booster failure were “heat effects on propulsion system components during the [rocket’s] ascent and erroneous engine alarm system settings.” SpaceX said in its post that it has made changes to Starship’s engine alarm and abort systems that should reduce the chance of a similar failure in the future.

While the first upper stage of Starship V3 was able to successfully deploy its test payload in May and simulate a landing in the Gulf — a milestone SpaceX had struggled to reach before — it also did so while losing one of the three Raptor engines that are meant to be used in the vacuum of space. SpaceX said over the weekend that it has made “[s]everal hardware and operational modifications” to prevent this from happening again.

This next Starship test flight will see the company launch the first of its V3 Starlink satellites to space, which are supposed to increase the satellite network’s capacity and user speeds. SpaceX is planning to deploy 20 of these new satellites during the launch. They are designed to connect with the larger Starlink constellation “via high-capacity lasers” and then burn up in the atmosphere roughly 20 minutes after they are deployed, according to SpaceX. Six of them will be equipped with cameras to photograph the exterior of Starship.

The V3 versions of both Starship and Starlink are crucial to SpaceX’s future. Starlink was the only profitable part of SpaceX’s business in the run-up to its IPO, and SpaceX needs Starship to become a fully reusable rocket system to even attempt its galaxy-brained plans for space-based data centers and interplanetary travel.

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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

Key Takeaways SpaceX's launch scale and Starlink growth underpin its vertically integrated infrastructure platform.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers and generated $7.2 billion in 2025 adjusted EBITDA.Starship remains in testing, while AI posted a $1.2 billion adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is not a simple launch-services story. It combines reusable rockets, satellite broadband and artificial intelligence assets into one vertically integrated infrastructure platform.

That breadth creates a wide opportunity set, but also makes the stock harder to value. Starlink is already showing scale, while Starship and AI still require proof that investment can translate into durable returns.

SpaceX Has Three Growth EnginesSpaceX operates through Space, Connectivity and AI. The Space segment designs, manufactures and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft, with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy serving commercial, civil, international and government missions.

Connectivity is built around Starlink Consumer Broadband, enterprise and government solutions and mobile services. The AI segment expanded after the Feb. 2, 2026, xAI acquisition, bringing Grok, X and the COLOSSUS compute clusters into the platform.

SPCX Launch Scale Sets the FoundationLaunch scale remains SpaceX's clearest moat. As of March 31, 2026, the company had completed about 650 orbital launches, including roughly 620 Falcon 9 flights and 11 Falcon Heavy flights. Falcon 9 had a mission success rate of more than 99%, while Falcon Heavy had a 100% success rate. That cadence matters because lower-cost internal launch capacity helps SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites, support future mobile services and prepare for Starship V3, which is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit.

SpaceX Is Turning Starlink Into Cash FlowStarlink is the cleanest operating proof point in the story. The network had about 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit and roughly 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and other markets as of March 31, 2026.

SpaceX reported median residential peak-hour download speed of 225 Mbps. Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, showing that satellite broadband has moved into recurring revenue and meaningful cash generation.

AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) provides a terrestrial fiber and wireless benchmark for the connectivity side of the debate. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) offers a second large-network comparison as investors weigh how satellite broadband may complement or pressure traditional coverage models.

SPCX AI Ambitions Add Long-Term OptionalityAI broadens SpaceX's long-term narrative beyond rockets and broadband. The platform includes Grok, X and compute infrastructure through COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II, with about 550 million monthly active users across Grok and X as of March 31, 2026.

The opportunity is still early. The AI segment generated $3.2 billion of revenues in 2025, but adjusted EBITDA was negative $1.2 billion, reflecting a multi-year investment cycle tied to consumer AI, enterprise AI, compute services and future orbital AI compute.

The planned Anysphere acquisition adds another software angle. The all-stock deal, valued at $60 billion, is aimed at strengthening SpaceX's position in enterprise AI through the developer platform behind Cursor, but the transaction still depends on closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

SpaceX Signals Point to a Wait-and-See ViewThe bottom line is that SPCX has rare infrastructure advantages, but the stock's signal is mixed rather than clearly bullish. Starlink is scaling, Falcon launch reliability is established and AI adds optionality, yet Starship remains in testing and capital needs remain elevated.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). That rank points to a more balanced near-term setup, which fits a company where earnings estimate trends do not yet present a stronger short-term case.

The Style Scores send a similar message. SPCX has a VGM Score of D, with a Value Score of F, Growth Score of C and Momentum Score of A. Momentum is favorable, but weaker value and combined style readings suggest investors may want clearer evidence that newer platforms can generate returns before treating the stock as more than a wait-and-see story.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways SPCX fell 6.8% on its Nasdaq-100 debut, closing at $149.47, its lowest level since IPO.Starlink, Starship and AI infrastructure plans are key growth engines for SpaceX's long-term story.SpaceX's $2T valuation and 36X forward sales multiple leave little room for execution missteps. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX - Free Report) fell 6.8% yesterday on their first day as part of the Nasdaq-100 Index, closing at $149.47. The stock is now trading at its lowest level since its June 12 IPO and well below its closing high of $211.39.

SpaceX became one of the fastest companies to join the Nasdaq-100, but the milestone failed to provide the boost many investors had expected. Instead, the stock came under pressure as a broad technology selloff weighed on the sector.

The weakness was due to growing concerns over heavy AI-related spending, rising U.S. bond yields, higher oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Several technology stocks, including Marvell Technology (MRVL - Free Report) , Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) , also declined sharply yesterday.

Yesterday’s Price Decline  Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

With SpaceX now trading near its post-IPO lows, the key question is whether the recent pullback offers a compelling buying opportunity or signals further downside ahead.

Multiple Growth Engines Support SPCX’s Long-Term StorySpaceX's long-term growth story remains compelling, supported by multiple high-growth businesses.

The biggest growth driver is Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite Internet arm. It is benefiting from rising demand for broadband connectivity in underserved regions and is positioned to offer text, voice and data services directly to standard smartphones. The business generated more than $11.4 billion in revenues and $4.4 billion in operating income in fiscal 2025, highlighting its ability to generate meaningful profits while expanding globally.

Another major catalyst is Starship. Following its 12th successful test flight in May 2026, the next-generation launch vehicle is expected to carry much heavier payloads than Falcon 9. This would enable the deployment of larger Starlink satellites while significantly reducing the cost of delivering satellite bandwidth, improving the economics of the Starlink business over time.

SpaceX is also transforming into an AI infrastructure company following the acquisitions of xAI and X earlier this year. By combining AI models, large-scale computing infrastructure and satellite connectivity, the company is building an integrated platform that few competitors can match. It plans to launch AI compute satellites by 2028, paving the way for space-based data centers.

The company's growing presence in AI is already attracting major customers. Multi-billion-dollar computing agreements with Alphabet's Google and Anthropic provide long-term revenue visibility, while the planned acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding assistant Cursor, strengthens its position in the fast-growing enterprise AI software market.

But Can We Look Past the Valuation Concerns?While SpaceX's long-term opportunities are significant, its valuation leaves little room for disappointment.

The company is currently valued at around $2 trillion despite generating just $4.69 billion in first-quarter revenues and incurring a net loss of $4.28 billion. On a forward 12-month basis, the stock trades at roughly 36 times sales, a rich premium even among high-growth technology companies.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investors are paying for what SpaceX could become rather than what it is today. That optimism rests on Starlink's continued expansion, AI infrastructure, space-based data centers and Elon Musk's vision of building a company capable of generating $100 billion in annual revenues by 2028.

However, reaching that milestone will require flawless execution across multiple capital-intensive businesses. Also, history suggests that investors should treat Musk's timelines with caution. We know that many of Tesla's ambitious projects, including robotaxis and humanoid robots, have taken longer than initially projected. Likewise, many of SpaceX's biggest growth initiatives are still years away from making a meaningful financial contribution and will require huge investment before they begin generating attractive returns.

Is SpaceX Stock a Buy?SpaceX remains one of the most compelling long-term growth stories in the market. Few companies have leadership positions across commercial space, satellite connectivity and AI infrastructure, giving SPCX multiple avenues for expansion over the coming decade.

That said, much of this optimism already appears reflected in the stock's premium valuation. Even after the recent pullback, investors are still paying a steep price for future growth that will take years to materialize.

Having said that, for existing shareholders, the recent decline does not change the long-term investment thesis, making the stock worth holding through near-term volatility. Wall Street's average price target still implies roughly 35% upside from current levels.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, new investors may be better served by waiting for a more attractive entry point. While SpaceX's long-term prospects remain attractive, the current valuation still offers a limited margin of safety, leaving little room for execution missteps or broader market weakness.

SPCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

When a company goes public, it's important to know that the shares sold in the offering are a fraction of the existing shares. The rest, the stakes held by employees, early backers, and executives, sit behind a lockup -- an inability to sell for a set stretch after the debut.

For Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%), the first stretch lifts in late July, and the design of the release tells you more than the date does. Most IPOs use one 180-day lockup, so a wall of shares might hit the market on a single morning.

SpaceX built something different. The first slice, nearly 20% of locked shares, is freed up after the company reports second-quarter results in late July. Smaller tranches of around 7% each follow through August, September, and October, with a larger release tied to third-quarter earnings, and the 180-day batch clears in December. Instead of one flood, supply arrives in steps.

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The SpaceX price triggers worth watching One tranche, about 10% of the locked pool, is unlocked if the stock trades at 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50. That condition ties insider selling to strength rather than weakness. If shares are unlocked this way, more supply reaches the market, but it reaches the market because the stock has climbed. Think of this mechanism as a built-in brake: The plan releases the most shares when demand can absorb them.

What the lockup expiration means for the stock Two forces are at play here. More sellable shares can cap gains, and the late-July window is the first real test of how many insiders want out at a $2 trillion valuation. On the other side, the staggered format spreads the pressure across months rather than one session, and the largest holder sits out of every July move. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027, with no early release provision. The overhang that could matter most is a year down the road.

Image source: Getty Images.

The takeaway for investors The July expiration is a signal, not a cliff, and the difference shapes how you read the rest of the year. A staggered lockup lets the market price in each release as it comes rather than absorb one shock, so the second-quarter report in late July becomes the first honest look at insider appetite. If early backers and employees hold their shares through that window, it says something about how the people closest to SpaceX view a $2 trillion price tag; if they sell into the opening, their exit says the opposite.

Following its IPO and subsequent bond offering, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) now has more than $100 billion in new capital at its disposal. Expect SpaceX to go on a massive spending spree to spur growth and justify its $2 trillion valuation.

What will SpaceX's spending focus on? Artificial intelligence will likely be the biggest beneficiary. More than 90% of SpaceX's claimed total addressable market is AI-focused. That means investors should expect the company to dramatically scale terrestrial data center construction. But SpaceX will also now aggressively pursue putting AI data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers (ODCs).

ODCs will need many things to happen before they become a reality, one of which is successful commercialization of SpaceX's Starship megarocket. This megarocket -- which is significantly larger than the company's Falcon Heavy rocket -- would meaningfully improve SpaceX's ability to get larger payloads to space more affordably. ODCs, for example, could be launched at scale using Starship rockets.

One of SpaceX's biggest constraints on growth in this opportunity set, however, is access to rocket fuel. To solve that problem, SpaceX is reportedly looking to build its own natural gas pipeline. SpaceX may even look to produce its own natural gas over the long term.

How will this impact energy markets, and in particular, pipeline stocks? There are two factors to consider.

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1. SpaceX's natural gas pipeline won't endanger pipeline stocks According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas pipelines deliver roughly 30 trillion cubic feet to nearly 80 million consumers each year. A single Starship launch, for comparison, uses around 630,000 gallons of liquid methane, which equates to around 0.0000521 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Even if SpaceX launched 1,000 Starship rockets every year, it would still amount to less than 0.2% of U.S. natural gas demand transported by pipelines.

In short, SpaceX's actions aren't about to disintermediate conventional pipeline networks. In fact, SpaceX's actions could benefit certain pipeline networks in the long term.

Image source: Getty Images.

2. Pipeline stocks could actually benefit from SpaceX's actions long term According to reporting from Reuters, SpaceX "plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile natural gas pipeline called 'Starpipe' to its Texas launch facilities." Construction is expected to conclude in January 2027.

Reuters observes:

Designed to be fully ​reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in ⁠an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds, and eventually ​thousands of launches a year. 

Where will Starpipe's natural gas come from? SpaceX apparently wants to explore drilling for its own natural gas in the long term. But for now, it seems likely that supply will come from Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline.

Pipeline stocks, therefore, won't be affected by SpaceX's foray into pipeline construction. Enbridge may even benefit directly, with other natural gas pipeline stocks benefiting from a new source of demand that could support prices over the long term, even if it remains a fraction of total U.S. demand.

The InclusionSpaceX will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally, meaning every index fund and ETF tracking the benchmark will be required to own SpaceX shares as of Tuesday’s open.

Estimates suggest passive investors could purchase up to $4.3 billion in shares from the QQQ ETF alone, with total Nasdaq-100 and Russell index tracking fund buying potentially reaching $27 billion.

SpaceX Shares Edge HigherSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 2.44% higher at $165.96, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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SummarySpaceX is evolving into an integrated launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure platform, with AI expected to become its primary long-term growth driver.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, while AI hosting agreements imply approximately $26 billion in annualized recurring revenue.Starship V3 is expected to increase payload capacity twentyfold and reduce launch costs per kilogram by roughly ten times, strengthening internal economics.Despite strong growth prospects, SPCX reported a $4.94 billion FY2025 net loss, a $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss, and raised $25 billion through bonds.Investors should monitor AI hosting revenue, operating margin improvement, and cash burn, as execution will determine whether the premium valuation remains justified. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Investment Thesis SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO investment story extends well beyond launch services. It is becoming an end-to-end infrastructure platform covering space transport, connectivity, and AI computing. Now that SpaceX has gone public, investor attention is more likely

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Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), known as SpaceX, trade at a steep premium, and that valuation is built on more than the company launching rockets. A big part of the bull case is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, which reached 10.3 million subscribers in the first quarter.

Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year. That growth matters because Starlink is the company's most profitable business right now. Those profits can help fund SpaceX's broader ambitions in space and artificial intelligence (AI), which together represent enormous growth potential for the company.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX is starving for capital SpaceX may be best known as Elon Musk's rocket company, but the financial picture looks more like a vertically integrated technology infrastructure business with three operating segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI.

In 2025, the company generated $18.6 billion in total revenue and incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion across all segments. Starlink was the only profitable business. The Connectivity segment delivered more than $11 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, providing SpaceX with a meaningful pool of internally generated capital.

SpaceX is directing most of its capital spending toward the AI segment, which may signal where management sees the greatest upside over the next few years. Of the $20.7 billion in capital expenditures last year, $12.7 billion went to the AI segment, which includes xAI (Grok).

The IPO raised $86 billion in new capital, boosting its cash and equivalents to $100 billion as of June 19. It didn't waste time in deploying this fresh capital, recently acquiring Anysphere and its leading enterprise AI coding platform, Cursor. The company is trying to accelerate AI capabilities, even if that means aggressive capital deployment.

That's why Starlink's profitability is strategically valuable, and it's expected to grow quite quickly over the next few years. Goldman Sachs estimates Starlink revenue could reach $144 billion by 2030. If segment margins hold, that would put the connectivity segment's operating profit at over $50 billion -- cash that could materially support SpaceX's plans in space and AI.

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Starlink is one piece of a bigger empire The long-term value of owning AI models, data centers, communication satellites, and reusable rocket technology under one roof is hard to quantify, since space remains a largely unexplored frontier.

However, SpaceX pegs the combined addressable market across space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure at $28.5 trillion. That helps put the stock's $2 trillion market cap in perspective, but it's still very expensive, trading at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue. To justify that valuation, revenue needs to grow rapidly.

Starlink subscriber growth will be crucial, but investors should watch the AI segment, since that's where the company is investing the most capital. SpaceX recently struck a cloud services deal to lease xAI's data center capacity to Anthropic, in which it will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. More deals like this could open another large and growing revenue stream and potentially justify the stock's valuation.

The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesShort interest about 31% of SpaceX free float — Ortex dataCost to borrow still relatively cheap at 1% from as high as 14% at launchShorts sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 mln since IPO, Ortex ​saysNo squeeze yet, but if shares rebound short sellers could be hitNEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Short sellers are betting SpaceX's(SPCX.O), opens new tab will resume its post-debut decline with nearly a third of its tradable shares now sold short — even as those wagers have already cost them nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars in paper losses.

The sizeable ​short position could inject further volatility into the stock, with every $1 SpaceX share price swing translating ​to roughly $200 million in gains or losses for shorts, Ortex estimates.

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Short sellers, who sell ⁠borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a profit when the stock slips, ​were emboldened after SpaceX shares' initial burst of strength gave way to weakness and the share price slipped ​as much as 23% in the days following its June 12 market debut.

Short interest now stands at 196 million shares, about 31% of the free float, through Tuesday, up from some 83 million shares, or 13% of the free float, a week ​ago, Ortex data showed.

"(The rise in short bets) is extraordinary for a stock that has been public ​less than a month," said Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg.

SpaceX's more than $2 trillion valuation makes it a target for short sellers ‌skeptical ⁠of its rich price tag, but strong retail and institutional interest and Musk's history of public battles against short sellers make that a risky proposition. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SpaceX shorts are sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 million since the IPO, Ortex estimates.

When the stock bottomed near $153 last ​week they were up around $2.5 ​billion on paper, ⁠but the rebound in SpaceX shares since has wiped all of that out, Ortex data showed.

"SpaceX has been a roller coaster for the short sellers," Hillerberg said.

The ​cost to borrow SpaceX shares, a gauge of demand to short a stock ​relative to ⁠the supply of shares available to lend, remains relatively cheap at about 1%, Ortex data showed.

Given the number of shares sold short relative to the total tradable shares available, should SpaceX's stock price continue to rebound, short ⁠covering — where ​bearish investors are forced to buy shares to close out ​their wagers to avoid further losses — has the potential to push the shares even higher, Hillerberg said.

"(It's) a lot of potential fuel ​if it tips into a squeeze," he said.

Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed Editing by Nick Zieminski Editing by Nick Zieminski

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +4.06%) recent IPO was a massive success. However, serious questions remain about the company's outlook and its eventual ability to turn a profit. Much of that will depend on SpaceX's biggest growth driver, Starlink, which provides internet connectivity services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. But SpaceX could also make progress in its space segment, leading to much better margins and profits. And a potential milestone it could reach within 15 days will tell us more about whether SpaceX can meaningfully improve the economics of its space business.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX's next-gen rocket SpaceX has transformed the space travel industry thanks to its pioneering work with reusable rockets. But there remains plenty of work to be done. The company's next-gen rocket, Starship, is currently in the test flight phase. Starship is central to SpaceX's long-term ambitions. Unlike the company's already highly successful Falcon 9 rocket, Starship was developed to be fully reusable. It could help decrease launch costs by 95% compared to Falcon 9. Starship is also much taller and has a much larger payload capacity.

SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, with the latest one introducing the newest version, dubbed V3, of the rocket. Right before the company's IPO about three weeks ago, SpaceX's COO, Gwynne Shotwell, said the 13th Starship flight test would take place in about a month -- which puts us at roughly mid-July at the latest. Shotwell also said she expects regular monthly flights for the rocket thereafter.

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Is SpaceX stock a buy? Another successful Starship flight test would bolster the bull case for SpaceX. However, there are reasons to remain skeptical about the company's future. Here are three of them. First, the company is not consistently profitable. In 2025, it posted a net loss of $4.9 billion, far worse than the $791 million in net income reported in 2024. Unprofitable companies can be attractive if their growth prospects look strong, which brings us to our second point: Average revenue per user (ARPU) within SpaceX's most important segment, Starlink, is declining. In the first quarter of 2026, Starlink's ARPU was $66, down from $86 in Q1 2025, and significantly lower than the $99 it recorded in 2023.

While Starlink subscribers continue to grow at a good clip, the declining ARPU may eventually lead to lower margins, especially as the company starts facing more competition and pricing pressure. One possible solution is for SpaceX to reduce the cost of launching LEO satellites. So the situation is by no means hopeless. Still, investors need to monitor Starlink's declining ARPU. Third, SpaceX might face significant regulatory headwinds over the long run, especially given that it relies on contracts from the U.S. federal government for 20% of its revenue.

So, what's the verdict? SpaceX could deliver life-changing returns if it can make significant progress with Starship and other initiatives, but the stock remains highly risky, especially at current levels. I'd wait for a major pullback before initiating a position.

SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX will bypass traditional public market seasoning requirements to enter the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. This regulatory shift triggers an estimated $4.3 billion in forced institutional buying just weeks after the initial public offering. Paired with a rumored terrestrial backhaul partnership that positions Starlink Mobile to immediately challenge legacy telecom providers, SpaceX commands a near-term liquidity catalyst capable of temporarily overriding structural valuation headwinds.

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Index Gravity Squeeze: Front-Running the $4.3B Fast-TrackUsually, a newly public enterprise waits months or even years to join major market indexes. Nasdaq recently amended its eligibility framework, allowing mega-cap initial public offerings (IPO) to enter the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days. For SpaceX, a $2.10 trillion aerospace sector giant, this fast-track inclusion fundamentally alters the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics.

When a stock enters a major benchmark, passive funds tracking that index have no choice but to buy. These institutional funds do not evaluate price-to-sales ratios or profitability metrics. Their sole mandate is to replicate the index weight accurately.

SpaceX Today

$164.05 +10.82 (+7.06%)

As of 06/29/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$147.11▼

$225.64Price Target$212.67

J.P. Morgan modeling indicates that the July 7 reconstitution will require approximately $4.3 billion in mechanical passive inflows from benchmarked funds such as the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ. This incoming capital heavily compounds the estimated $3 billion SpaceX already absorbed from a recent fast-track inclusion into the Russell 1000 index.

This immense institutional buying pressure currently meets a structurally constrained supply of shares. Post-IPO lock-up agreements restrict early investors and executives from immediately liquidating their equity.

Approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale only after the first public earnings release on Aug. 6. The absence of this float severely restricts available liquidity leading into the July index event.

When billions of dollars of indiscriminate capital chase a capped share count, the resulting friction creates a highly predictable pre-inclusion price squeeze. Smart active managers often front-run these events, accumulating shares beforehand and forcing prices higher as the passive index funds scramble to secure their required allocations before the closing bell.

Ground Control to Charter CommunicationsBeyond the immediate mechanics of index arbitrage, a massive shift is occurring in how broadband and mobile data reach global consumers. Executive-level negotiations are reportedly advancing between SpaceX and Charter Communications Inc. NASDAQ: CHTR to route Starlink Mobile traffic through established terrestrial networks.

Understanding the significance of this move requires examining the massive capital expenditures required by traditional telecommunications. Legacy operators spend tens of billions of dollars laying fiber-optic cables and erecting cell towers to maintain their regional monopolies. Starlink Mobile aims to bypass much of this physical infrastructure by beaming connectivity directly from low Earth orbit to consumer devices. Space-to-ground data transmission requires foundational ground-based routing to handle heavy consumer traffic loads efficiently without severe latency.

Securing ground-based backhaul through a partner like Charter Communications allows Starlink to scale operations as a direct-to-consumer wireless provider instantly. SpaceX can challenge terrestrial network monopolies without bearing the prohibitive costs of building physical infrastructure.

This dual approach of dominating the orbital layer while piggybacking on existing terrestrial fiber rapidly accelerates the timeline for market capture against incumbent wireless carriers like Verizon NYSE: VZ and AT&T NYSE: T. The broader space infrastructure sector benefits heavily from these macro tailwinds as satellite broadband capabilities reach pricing and speed parity with legacy fiber networks, unlocking a massive new global subscriber base.

SpaceX Valuation Floats in the ExosphereAggressive physical and technological expansion requires monumental capital, and fixed-income markets are eager to fund it. SpaceX recently settled a five-tranche, $25 billion unsecured senior bond offering, stretching debt maturities out to 2056.

Institutional order books peaked near $90 billion, demonstrating robust willingness to finance heavy space-based capital expenditures. The proceeds explicitly retire a $20 billion bridge loan tied to earlier xAI infrastructure acquisitions, eliminating near-term maturity risk and securing a longer operational runway for massive satellite deployments.

Still, SpaceX’s current stock price reflects immense future expectations rather than current operational efficiency. At around $165 per share, the market capitalization sits at a towering $2.1 trillion. With annual sales of $19.3 billion, SpaceX commands a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 108. Investors are effectively paying roughly $108 for every single dollar of revenue SpaceX currently generates. Earnings data from May 7, prior to the public listing, showed a $1.27-per-share quarterly loss, contributing to an estimated $4.9 billion annual net deficit.

SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, June, 30, 2026

Institutional coverage is increasingly highlighting this fundamental disconnect between price action and core business metrics. Analysts at Morningstar explicitly labeled the $2 trillion valuation as stretched, assigning a much lower fair value of $780 billion. Argus Research recently initiated coverage with a cautious Hold rating.

These financial models warn of potential multiple compression once the Aug. 6 lock-up expires and restricted shares flood the open market. Bondholders are also scrutinizing the lack of current profitability, leading to slight weakness in secondary-market trading as credit spreads widen relative to risk-free Treasuries.

Brace for Re-Entry on August Lock-Up ExpirationThe immediate trajectory for SpaceX relies heavily on market mechanics rather than traditional earnings growth or deep value metrics. The $4.3 billion mandatory allocation from index trackers creates an undeniable short-term demand shock. Strategic investors often capitalize on this exact type of market structure, recognizing that forced institutional buying creates price inefficiencies that operate completely disconnected from fundamental valuation models.

Simultaneously, the broader space sector remains highly attractive as direct-to-device satellite communication transitions from a conceptual technology to a commercially viable reality. Strategic partnerships that provide terrestrial backhaul validate the Starlink business model and open up massive new addressable markets previously locked down by regional telecom providers.

Investors looking to navigate this specific environment might consider closely monitoring the daily trading volume leading up to the July 6 closing bell. The mechanics of index inclusion offer a clear, near-term liquidity catalyst for SpaceX, but cautious market participants may prefer to wait for the Aug. 6 lock-up expiration to assess how early insiders handle their newly liquid equity before committing long-term capital to the aerospace leader.

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