SpaceX plans to launch its massive Starship rocket early Monday in an effort to reach orbit with the spacecraft for the first time.
According to SpaceX's website, the 75-minute launch window begins at 8:15 a.m. ET, or 7:15 a.m. local time, from the company town of Starbase, Texas.
The Federal Aviation Administration told CNBC by email that it issued a "license authorization for the SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Flight 14 launch and reentry operations" on Sept. 26. With the 14th test flight of Starship, Elon Musk's aerospace and defense company also plans to deploy 26 of its new Starlink V3 satellites.
Starship is critical to SpaceX's expansion plans. The company is counting on the giant rocket to scale its Starlink, or Connectivity, business, which was its largest and only profitable segment as of the second quarter. SpaceX operates around 11,000 active satellites in orbit today, compared to roughly 650 for competitor Eutelsat OneWeb.
On SpaceX's earnings call in August, Musk said, "It's not out of the question that at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world's internet, at least in countries where we're allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries."
SpaceX went public in June in the largest IPO on record and is now valued at about $2 trillion.
SpaceX has designed its Starship Super Heavy rocket and booster to be fully reusable, and to lift more cargo for less cost into orbit than any prior spacecraft. None of the 13 earlier test flights have been intended to make it into orbit, but with the 14th flight, SpaceX is hoping Starship will circle the planet.
The company is preparing Starship for a major NASA test flight next year, and intends to use the rocket to bring U.S. astronauts back to the moon's surface.
SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell said during the All-In Summit earlier this month that the company also plans to use Starship to put "supercompute in space," launching "AI compute satellites" into orbit in 2027.
The company's new v3 satellites, which are produced at a SpaceX facility in Redmond, Washington, are equipped with solar arrays that generate twice as much power as prior generations. They are also larger, and designed to be more powerful, transmitting data more rapidly than earlier versions to Starlink subscribers.
Tesla (TSLA -1.54%) went public in 2010 and has delivered life-changing returns since. Given its average annualized returns of 40.11% (as of writing) since it hit equity markets, $5,000 invested in Tesla 16 years ago would be worth more than $1 million today.
Tesla's co-founder and CEO, Elon Musk, recently took another one of his companies public: Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.44%), and many investors have high hopes for the rocket company. Could SpaceX follow in Tesla's footsteps and deliver millionaire-maker-level returns?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The ingredients are there According to some estimates, SpaceX's IPO has turned more than 4,000 of its current and former employees into millionaires. Many of them had likely been with the company for years, during the period when it helped revolutionize space travel. SpaceX pioneered the routine reuse of orbital-class rocket boosters.
Falcon 9, the company's primary operational rocket, has a reusable first-stage booster, a factor that has helped the company significantly reduce space travel costs. SpaceX has become the industry leader and earns revenue from contracts with government agencies and other institutions. But SpaceX isn't done innovating.
The company is working on Starship, which is designed to be fully reusable, including both its Super Heavy first-stage booster and Starship upper-stage spacecraft. That could, once again, allow the company to reduce launch costs, leading to higher margins and profits. SpaceX has two other operating segments: one that provides internet connectivity services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites, and an artificial intelligence (AI) business that provides AI computing capacity.
Connectivity is the company's most profitable segment. The company's customer base and revenue in this unit are growing rapidly, and SpaceX plans to launch its next-gen Starlink satellites into orbit to serve far more customers. Further, SpaceX has signed important AI compute deals this year and sees a massive opportunity in this market. The company hopes to eventually address the limitations of hyperscalers' AI build-out by serving its customers via AI satellites.
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These plans could significantly improve the company's already strong financial results. In the second quarter, SpaceX's revenue grew 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, while its net loss shrank to $541 million from the $1 billion reported in the year-ago period. Analysts (on average) expect SpaceX to report earnings per share of $0.07 this year (as of writing).
And CEO Elon Musk said the company has an internal projection of $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. That isn't out of the realm of possibility if the company can continue to innovate and execute its plans over the medium term. And over the long term, SpaceX could crush broader equities.
A lot could go wrong Investors placed high expectations on SpaceX even before its IPO. Between the company's dominance in the space industry, its attempts to disrupt some lucrative markets, and its being led by Elon Musk, who has proven he can guide a highly successful company, SpaceX arguably traded at a hefty premium the moment it hit the stock market. That's partly why, despite significant progress since it went public, the company has not gained much value. And this could remain a problem.
SpaceX is trading at 200x forward earnings, a valuation that seems to have already factored in some of the company's future success. But what if some of SpaceX's plans fail? The company could face setbacks if Starship's flight tests don't go as planned, among other potential problems. And if that happens, the stock could fall off a cliff.
None of this means SpaceX can't turn average investors into millionaires over the next 20 years or so, but at current levels, the stock is rather risky and likely to be highly volatile. SpaceX is incredibly unlikely to deliver Tesla-like returns over the next 16 years -- that would make the company's market cap reach about $441 trillion, roughly 14 times the current annual GDP of the U.S. But waiting for a significant dip in the company's stock price to invest, and holding onto SpaceX's shares for the next 30 years, could result in life-changing returns.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares of SpaceX stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 22nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.57, for a total transaction of $52,547,046.90. Following the transaction, the chief operating officer directly owned 2,472,035 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $379,630,414.95. This represents a 12.16% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
SpaceX Trading Up 0.4% NASDAQ SPCX opened at $148.67 on Friday. SpaceX has a 1-year low of $104.83 and a 1-year high of $225.64. The business’s 50 day moving average price is $136.41. The company has a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.96 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio of -1,651.89.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The business had revenue of $7.81 billion during the quarter. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts forecast that SpaceX will post -0.15 earnings per share for the current year.
Hedge Funds Weigh In On SpaceX Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. QRG Capital Management Inc. acquired a new stake in SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at $8,632,000. Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. acquired a new position in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth about $1,274,000. State Street Corp bought a new position in shares of SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at about $1,858,329,000. Security National Bank of SO Dak acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter valued at about $48,000. Finally, HBK Investments L P bought a new stake in SpaceX during the second quarter worth about $40,579,000. Trending Headlines about SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:
Positive Sentiment: Starship Flight 14 is approaching a major milestone. SpaceX completed a full launch rehearsal involving cold-fueling Booster 21 and Ship 41. The mission is targeting Starship’s first orbital flight, potentially strengthening confidence in the company’s next-generation reusable launch system. Starship rehearsal article Positive Sentiment: Analyst support and AI-compute growth provided a bullish counterweight. Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey said SpaceX could sustain premium compute pricing through 2027 and expects substantial upside. Elon Musk also outlined plans to add hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips to the Colossus 2 data center, although execution will depend on power, cooling and networking capacity. SpaceX price forecast article Positive Sentiment: Google selected SpaceX for Project Suncatcher. An experimental Google AI satellite is scheduled to launch on a SpaceX rideshare mission, highlighting demand for Falcon 9 launch services and supporting SpaceX’s potential role in orbital AI infrastructure. Project Suncatcher article Neutral Sentiment: Planet Labs’ Pelican-12 reached Cape Canaveral ahead of SpaceX’s Bandwagon-5 rideshare launch. The payload supports SpaceX’s launch activity, but the immediate financial benefit to SPCX is unclear. Planet Labs Pelican satellite article Negative Sentiment: Insider selling and share unlocks remain a major overhang. COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares for approximately $52.5 million under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan. Separately, more than 300 million locked-up shares became eligible for trading, raising concerns about additional supply. SEC insider filing Negative Sentiment: SpaceX’s roughly $1.9 trillion valuation and continuing losses leave the stock highly sensitive to launch delays, heavy AI spending and execution risk. A reported $10 billion fundraising by Blue Origin also signals that competition in rockets, satellites and government contracts is intensifying. Blue Origin funding article Analyst Ratings Changes Several brokerages recently issued reports on SPCX. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $235.00 price target (down from $255.00) on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Wednesday, September 2nd. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research note on Tuesday, August 25th. Cfra began coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Friday, June 12th. They set a “sell” rating and a $115.00 target price on the stock. Daiwa Securities Group started coverage on shares of SpaceX in a report on Thursday, July 2nd. They issued a “neutral” rating and a $175.00 price target for the company. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group restated a “buy” rating and issued a $205.00 price objective on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, August 4th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-six have given a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and seven have given a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $218.28.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on SpaceX
About SpaceX (Get Free Report)
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems, serving commercial, government and scientific customers.
SpaceX’s principal products include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are used to launch satellites, spacecraft and other payloads into orbit. The company also develops the Dragon spacecraft, which supports cargo and crew missions to low Earth orbit, including missions for NASA and other customers.
Through its Starlink business, SpaceX operates a large constellation of low Earth orbit satellites that provides broadband internet service to customers in numerous countries and regions.
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SpaceX dnes oslabil před otevřením burzy, protože se 24. září uvolní až 328,4 milionu akcií třídy A k prodeji. Akcie už ve středu klesly o 4,11 % na 148,36 USD.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX slipped in pre-market trading on Thursday as another block of restricted stock became eligible for sale, extending a supply overhang that has followed the company since its June market debut.
The stock was down about 0.6% before the bell after falling 4.11% on Wednesday to $148.36.
Up to 328.4 million Class A shares can become tradable on September 24 under SpaceX’s IPO lock-up schedule.
The release does not mean those shares will all be sold, but with more unlocks approaching and some investors already taking profits, the market is testing whether demand can absorb an expanding float.
Thursday’s release is part of a staggered post-IPO lock-up rather than a single expiry.
SpaceX’s June prospectus allows up to 328.4 million Class A shares, about 7% of the relevant locked pool, to be transferred from September 24.
Similar tranches are scheduled for October 9 and October 24, while up to 1.3 billion shares can become eligible after third-quarter results.
That distinction matters, as an unlock removes a contractual restriction on selling, but it does not force early investors or employees to dispose of their holdings.
RIT Capital Partners, a long-standing SpaceX investor, acknowledged the uncertainty in its August commentary.
“We continue to expect some near-term volatility in SpaceX as our staggered lock-up unwinds through the end of the year,” the investment trust said.
The stock’s recent history explains the concern. When up to 319 million shares became eligible on September 9, SpaceX fell roughly 3.9% that session.
Wednesday’s 4.11% decline, one day before the latest release, showed investors were again positioning cautiously.
The more important question is whether existing holders actually want to sell.
JPMorgan analysts noted that retail investors had sold about $570 million of SpaceX shares over three weeks, including nearly $250 million in the latest week, the largest weekly retail outflow he had recorded for the company.
That is notable because retail demand helped support SpaceX after its IPO. Additional locked shares becoming tradable now arrive as a previously important buyer group is reducing exposure.
Valuation adds to the sensitivity.
MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu recently raised her SpaceX price target to $142 from $131 while maintaining a Neutral stance.
Her earlier initiation note said there was “simply no credible financial model” supporting what was then a roughly $2 trillion valuation under the company’s most ambitious assumptions.
At Wednesday’s $148.36 close, the shares remained above their $135 IPO price, but far below the post-listing high of $225.64.
There is also a strong counterargument, as Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak initiated SpaceX at Buy this month with a $220 target.
The analyst argued that the investment case ultimately depends on whether Starship can achieve economical reusability.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said, according to StreetInsider.
If SpaceX solves that engineering problem, Pivotal believes lower launch costs could expand Starlink and open other large markets.
For investors accessing high-growth themes through individual stocks or ETF platforms, the bigger question is whether that future earnings potential can justify absorbing a steadily expanding float.
In that scenario, additional supply could still find buyers willing to underwrite larger future earnings.
SpaceX se do S&P 500 nemůže dostat ne dříve než v červnu 2027. Hlavní překážkou jsou ztráty: ve 2. čtvrtletí činily 541 milionů USD a za poslední čtyři čtvrtletí přes 8 miliard USD.
When SpaceX (SPCX -4.11%) entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, index funds tracking that benchmark had no choice but to buy the stock -- under a month after the company's initial public offering. Some investors might be hoping the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.75%) prompts another round of that sort of buying.
S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the index, has already ruled out an early entry. On June 4, it opted not to fast-track huge IPOs into its flagship index, and its logic was straightforward: size by itself doesn't win an exception to the rules.
That left SpaceX, with a market value close to $2 trillion, up against the same three tests as every other candidate.
The first test keeps the company out until at least June 2027. The second could keep it out longer -- and, I'd say, it's the one stockholders should watch.
Image source: Getty Images.
Three tests, no exceptionsThe consultation behind the decision had proposed shortcuts for megacap companies, such as a seasoning period cut to six months and a waiver of the earnings and float tests. S&P Dow Jones Indices retained all three rules.
A new stock must trade on an eligible exchange for at least 12 months before it can be considered. Its GAAP net income from continuing operations (the unadjusted, bottom-line kind) must be positive in the most recent quarter, and in the four most recent quarters taken together. And at least 10% of a company's shares must be available to public investors.
SpaceX began trading on June 12, so the seasoning test can't be met before June 2027. The float test should sort itself out along the way.
Lockup agreements free up shares on a fixed schedule, with about 328 million more becoming eligible to trade on Thursday, Sept. 24, and billions more to come by December. Even CEO Elon Musk, who holds almost half the company, can't sell before next June.
The profitability test is the tough oneSpaceX now fails both parts of the earnings test. It posted a $541 million net loss for the second quarter. And its four most recent reported quarters total a net loss of more than $8 billion.
But the test considers only a rolling four-quarter window. Most of this year's losses came in the first quarter, when SpaceX lost $4.3 billion -- a number that included about $1.5 billion of one-time charges from retiring debt. By June 2027, that quarter will have fallen out of the tested window completely.
The second quarter's loss, though, will still count. To pass at the earliest eligible date, SpaceX needs the three quarters it reports between now and then to earn more than $541 million combined -- and the final one, the first quarter of 2027, must be profitable on its own.
And the company's heading in that direction. Not only did its loss from operations shrink to just $143 million in the second quarter (compared to $970 million a year earlier and $1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026), but revenue growth also rose to 92% year over year from the first quarter's 15%. SpaceX has even posted a profitable year before, making $791 million in 2024.
Added costs keep the losses comingStill, there's a reason profits could take longer to arrive. SpaceX's spending hits the income statement with a lag.
The company put $28.5 billion into capital expenditures in the first half of 2026, most of it on artificial intelligence data centers. A lot of that spending turns into depreciation when the assets are up and running, an expense charged against earnings over the years the equipment remains in service.
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The charge is rising rapidly. Depreciation and amortization totaled $2.8 billion in the second quarter, up from $2.4 billion in the first and $1.5 billion a year earlier. And the equipment bought this year will probably drive it higher still. Interest is a growing expense, as well. SpaceX issued $25 billion of bonds in June, and interest expense was $629 million last quarter.
Put another way, the income statement is getting better and taking on new weight at the same time. A company can sit on a $100 billion war chest, as SpaceX did at midyear, and still report GAAP losses for quarters to come.
In the end, the calendar is the easy part. The seasoning requirement ends next June on its own, the float expands on a published schedule, and even a company that passes every test still needs the index committee to select it.
The earnings requirement is the one without a deadline. If you own the stock in hopes of forced index buying, I think quarterly net income, not June 2027, is the number to watch. And at about $152 per share as of this writing, I wouldn't buy shares simply to wait for it.
SpaceX dnes klesá o 4 % kvůli blížícímu se odblokování akcií, prodeji akcií v hodnotě téměř 52 milionů USD a obavám z vysokého ocenění. AST SpaceMobile odepisuje 6 %.
A looming share unlock, a top executive's $52 million stock sale, and stretched valuations are colliding at once for SpaceX, and the next few sessions will test whether buyers hold the line or step aside.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is down 4% today to $148.13 as investors weigh a looming share unlock, a proposed $52 million sale by President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, and concerns about the company’s valuation. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is falling 6% to $60.08, while Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 2% to $70.28, extending weakness across several space-related names.
The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is down 2% to $43.22, compared with a 0.89% decline for the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) to $740.81. The broader weakness suggests today’s pressure isn’t limited to SpaceX, although SpaceX stock has its own supply and valuation issues that could make the next several sessions particularly interesting.
SpaceX Faces Another Wave of Potential Supply SpaceX is approaching another lockup expiration on September 24, when about 328 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale. The expiration doesn’t require holders to sell, but the additional potential supply could weigh on SpaceX stock if early investors, employees or other shareholders decide to monetize their holdings.
The supply concern comes alongside Shotwell’s disclosed plan to sell 342,170 shares with an aggregate value of nearly $52 million. The filing indicates that Shotwell acquired the shares through a cash exercise of stock options, and the transaction falls within a trading plan adopted in June, meaning the planned sale doesn’t necessarily represent a fresh change in her outlook for SpaceX.
Valuation Keeps the Debate Alive SpaceX stock also faces a valuation question after a powerful run since the company’s June IPO. The stock’s current level remains above the $135 IPO price, while investors are assigning substantial value to Starlink, launch operations and newer opportunities involving artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The bullish case has several potential catalysts, including continued Starlink growth and SpaceX’s upcoming Starship test flight scheduled for September 28. Barron’s reported that SpaceX had about 1.4 gigawatts of AI computing capacity at the end of the second quarter and plans to expand that capacity substantially, although some of the company’s more ambitious AI-in-space plans remain dependent on Starship’s development.
Space Stocks Are Feeling the Pressure Rocket Lab stock and AST SpaceMobile stock are also falling today, showing that investors aren’t treating the weakness as an issue unique to SpaceX. The Procure Space ETF’s 2% decline versus the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s 0.89% decline reinforces the idea that space-related stocks are experiencing greater selling pressure than the broader technology market.
Rocket Lab has its own potential catalysts, including the planned Neutron rocket and its proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications, while AST SpaceMobile is continuing to build its satellite-based cellular network. Those opportunities could give both companies substantial long-term growth potential, although today’s declines also highlight the volatility investors may encounter across the space sector.
The Next Few Sessions Could Be Crucial For SpaceX stock, the key question may be whether the additional share supply creates sustained selling pressure or is absorbed without significantly changing the market’s view of the company. Investors can watch for whether SpaceX stock stabilizes around current levels as the September 24 unlock passes, while the September 28 Starship test provides another scheduled event that could shift attention back toward operations.
The bull case remains tied to SpaceX’s Starlink business, launch capabilities and potential AI infrastructure expansion, while the bear case centers on valuation and the possibility that additional shares coming available could weigh on the stock. Investors considering SpaceX stock or other space-related names may want to keep their position sizes moderate given the combination of elevated valuations, share-supply uncertainty and substantial event-driven volatility.
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SpaceX ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 92 % na 7,8 miliardy USD a segmentový upravený EBITDA téměř ztrojnásobila na 3,5 miliardy USD. Přesto zůstala v čisté ztrátě 541 milionů USD.
In politics, they say that a president's first 100 days tell you how the rest of the term will be.
Publicly traded companies have a much longer lifespan than a presidential term, but looking at their first few months on the market can be informative, especially for a high-profile company like Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX +1.89%).
SpaceX has now been a public company for 100 days, and the stock has gone on a wild ride. It soared out of the gate before losing more than 50% of its value from peak to trough in July. It's since bounced back, and closed at $154.72 on Sept. 22, about even with the $150 it opened at when it started trading on June 12.
With SpaceX's first 100 days in the books, let's take a look at what we've learned since SpaceX went public. Here's its 100-day report card.
Image source: SpaceX.
Business updates: APerhaps the most impressive part of SpaceX's first three months is that the trajectory of the business has changed substantially since it went public.
The difference between its first-quarter and second-quarter results is telling. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue growth of just 15% to $4.69 billion, and segment adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.12 billion.
However, in the second quarter, the company signed deals to rent its excess computing capacity to Anthropic and Google. Revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, and its segment adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
In addition to the surge in AI revenue from those deals, its connectivity segment revenue jumped 66% as Starlink subscribers doubled.
CEO Elon Musk has said that he doesn't see the rental agreements as a long-term growth driver, but rather as a smart way to leverage its AI infrastructure, and a reminder that the company has multiple levers to pull to drive its growth.
Valuation: C+SpaceX's valuation has improved since its IPO, when it traded at a sky-high price-to-sales ratio of around 100. Analysts are forecasting revenue of $108 billion in 2027.
However, not all revenue is created equal. The AI compute rental revenue from Anthropic, Google, and others is comparable to what neocloud companies like CoreWeave and Nebius generate. Those companies are growing revenue at triple-digit rates but are significantly cheaper than SpaceX, especially when factoring in future growth.
Despite its EBITDA profitability, SpaceX is still losing money on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, with a loss of $541 million in the second quarter.
Investor sentiment: B+Investor fervor for SpaceX has faded after the initial hype, and the stock now seems to be trading on actual news rather than speculation.
The company went public with an unusual lockup expiration schedule, which is staggered over the year following the IPO. So far, SpaceX has had its first two tranches unlock, and the stock has skated through relatively unscathed, showing investor confidence and suggesting that insiders aren't dumping the stock. In the first release on Aug. 6, the stock actually rose 6%, as investors seemed to react favorably to a lack of downward pressure on the stock. The stock fell 4% on Aug. 20, the second tranche unlock, though it quickly recovered those losses.
Those lockups also drive a greater allocation to the Nasdaq-100, meaning ETFs that track the index, like the Invesco QQQ Trust, have to buy more of the stock, which could be a tailwind for SpaceX.
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Is SpaceX a buy?With the stock stabilizing, revenue growth dramatically accelerating, and the valuation starting to moderate, SpaceX looks more attractive than it did around the time of its IPO.
Still, with a market cap of $2 trillion, SpaceX is valued like the Magnificent Seven stocks, and many of them look like better buys by comparison. Meta Platforms, for example, has a lower market cap than SpaceX, even after its recent rally on the strength of Muse, its new AI agent.
SpaceX still has a lot to prove. I'm happy to invest in stocks like Meta, which are delivering high growth and wide margins at a reasonable valuation, and watch SpaceX from the sidelines.
Analytici čekají, že AI segment SpaceX dosáhne do roku 2030 tržeb 275 miliard USD. V posledním čtvrtletí, které skončilo 30. června, měl tržby 2,6 miliardy USD, ale firma zůstává ve ztrátě 541 milionů USD.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +1.19%) went public a few months ago, and while it may be known for its rockets and plans to send people to Mars, the company's artificial intelligence (AI) business is what's driving its growth right now. The company has been securing deals involving AI compute power, and that's been a key way the business, which also goes by just SpaceX, plans to get to an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of this year.
The massive growth that SpaceX is experiencing right now is primarily due to AI. Here's a look at just how big analysts expect the AI segment to get by 2030.
Image source: Getty Images.
Analysts expect $275 billion in annual AI revenue from SpaceX by the end of the decadeMassive growth is what investors and analysts expect from SpaceX. That's why, despite a lack of profitability, its valuation is around $2 trillion. Investors are paying a colossal premium for the business based on how big and profitable it might get in the future, with space, AI, and its Starlink internet business all being possible growth machines for the overall business.
In the company's most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, SpaceX's AI revenue totaled $2.6 billion, translating into an annual run rate of about $10.2 billion. But by 2027, Wall Street expects the company's AI revenue to top $67 billion. And by 2030, the revenue is forecasted to reach an incredible $275 billion. This is just the company's AI business, but it's a fast-growing one and likely to be its largest segment in the future. Its connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, generated $4.3 billion last quarter and was still its largest for now; the space business generated $962 million.
SpaceX's revenue growth looks promising, but profitability remains a bigger question markThere's little doubt that SpaceX's business will get much bigger than where it is today. CEO Elon Musk previously projected that the company might generate as much as $1 trillion by 2030. However, that doesn't appear likely unless the AI business becomes far larger than what analysts expect or the other business units grow at even faster rates. Nonetheless, there's ample growth on the horizon for SpaceX.
What shouldn't be overlooked, however, is profitability. Growth is great, but the most valuable companies in the world are also producing significant profits. SpaceX remains unprofitable, and if it's to remain a top growth stock, it'll likely need much stronger numbers on the bottom line. Its net loss last quarter was $541 million. Although that was an improvement from the $1 billion loss it incurred a year ago, it still has a long way to go to get to breakeven. And with the company spending heavily on AI, its losses may potentially increase in the future, which could make this a bit of a risky growth stock to own.
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The stock is promising, but it's also incredibly overvaluedSpaceX's growth potential is what captivates investors. But if the space company isn't able to also generate significant profits, then its valuation may inevitably fall lower, especially if it needs to constantly raise capital to fund its expensive growth opportunities.
At $2 trillion, SpaceX is the only stock in the trillion-dollar club that isn't profitable. That's why I don't believe it belongs there, and why it could be vulnerable to a significant decline in the future. The stock is still new and exciting, but I don't expect it to stay at such a high valuation. With plenty of downside risk, SpaceX is a stock that I think many investors are better off steering clear of, at least until it can show a path to profitability.
SpaceX v pondělí vzrostlo asi o 2 %, protože jeho váha v indexu Nasdaq-100 se při čtvrtletní rebalance více než zdvojnásobí na 2,82 %. Zároveň trh sleduje blížící se test Starship Flight 14, který má být první výnosovou misí.
SpaceX SPCX stock rose in early trading Monday as its weighting in the Nasdaq-100 more than doubled in the index’s quarterly rebalance.
Shares were up around 2% near $156, extending the stock’s recovery as the company moves into a period of heavier index exposure and several potential catalysts.
SpaceX will account for 2.82% of the Nasdaq-100 when the quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday.
The increase closes part of an unusual gap between SpaceX’s market value and its influence on the index.
The company is now the seventh-largest Nasdaq-100 constituent by market capitalization, with a value above $2 trillion, but its previous weighting ranked outside the index’s top 20.
SpaceX’s relatively low weighting dates back to its addition to the Nasdaq-100 in July.
At the time, much of the company’s stock remained subject to lockups and was unavailable for public trading.
That limited its effective weighting, despite Nasdaq changing its rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to enter the index sooner and removing a requirement that at least 10% of shares be publicly tradable.
The higher weighting means passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 must adjust their holdings to reflect SpaceX’s larger share of the benchmark.
More than 200 investment products track the Nasdaq-100, with more than $800 billion in assets under management globally.
The increased index weighting could therefore provide an additional source of demand for SpaceX shares as passive portfolios are rebalanced.
But the stock still faces a potentially significant increase in available supply.
Lockups remain a major overhangUnlike a conventional IPO with a single 180-day lockup expiration, SpaceX structured its prospectus around roughly a dozen dates on which insiders and other shareholders can become eligible to sell.
That staggered schedule limits the amount of stock becoming available at any one time but has not removed the potential selling pressure.
Shares fell around 3% during the latest major release after as many as 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading.
At recent prices, those shares were worth roughly $49 billion.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day.
More releases are scheduled through the remainder of 2026.
Around 320 million shares are expected to become eligible on September 24, followed by another roughly 320 million shares on October 9 and October 24.
The largest potential release is expected two full trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter results, which are expected in late October or early November.
Up to 1.3 billion shares, or roughly 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable at that point.
December 8 marks the 180-day expiration, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
That creates a continuing supply overhang even as the stock has recovered from its August low, giving early investors more opportunities to realize gains.
Investors are also looking ahead to SpaceX’s next major Starship test.
SpaceX said last week that it is targeting Starship Flight 14 for as early as September 28, pending regulatory approval.
The company had previously targeted September 22 for the launch from its Starbase facility in Texas.
The mission has a 75-minute launch window beginning at 8:15 a.m. ET, according to SpaceX’s mission briefing page.
Flight 14 is expected to be the first revenue-generating Starship mission.
CFO Bret Johnsen described it as such at a recent Goldman Sachs conference.
The spacecraft is expected to carry and deploy 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites, supporting an upgrade of SpaceX’s satellite constellation.
The mission is important to the company’s longer-term investment case because much of SpaceX’s growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak has tied his $220 price target to that assumption.
His valuation case assumes Starship vehicles can complete 20 to 50 flights, require relatively low refurbishment costs and achieve rapid turnaround times.
SpaceX se chystá na 28. září se Starship Flight 14, který má poprvé obletět Zemi a vypustit operační satelity Starlink V3. Úspěch by byl důležitým milníkem pro růst Starlinku.
Key Takeaways SpaceX's Flight 14 aims to complete a full Earth orbit and deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites.Starlink provides recurring revenues and cash to help fund SpaceX's rockets, satellites and technologies.SpaceX's AI compute revenues surged 247% YoY in Q2, but heavy capital spending and valuation remain concerns. SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) is heading toward another important milestone as it targets Sept. 28 for Starship Flight 14, after pushing the launch back six days from the original Sept. 22 target. While launch delays are nothing new for the company, this mission could represent a meaningful step forward. Unlike previous Starship flights, Flight 14 is designed to attempt a full orbit around Earth and deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites.
Starship Could Unlock a Big Growth EngineStarship's significance extends well beyond another test flight. SpaceX is developing the rocket as a fully reusable launch system capable of carrying substantially more payload at potentially lower costs. If the company can eventually achieve reliable, high-frequency launches, Starship could expand the economics of the space industry while strengthening SpaceX's position in commercial and government launches.
The upcoming mission is important as it is intended to demonstrate orbital operations and deploy Starlink V3 satellites. These satellites are expected to substantially increase network capacity, potentially supporting continued growth in Starlink's broadband business.
Still, investors should remember that Starship remains a development program. Hardware readiness, regulatory approvals, technical setbacks and launch delays could continue to push timelines out. A successful Flight 14 would therefore be an important milestone, but not proof that Starship has reached commercial maturity.
Starlink Provides the Financial FoundationStarlink remains the more established part of the SpaceX story. The satellite broadband business has expanded rapidly across international markets and gives SpaceX a recurring-revenue business alongside its more speculative ventures.
The continued rollout of higher-capacity satellite generations could further improve network economics and allow SpaceX to serve more customers and offer higher-value services. Starlink's established customer base provides a source of cash that can help fund SpaceX's ambitious investments in rockets, satellites and other technologies.
This diversification makes the SpaceX story different from that of a pure-play space company. Starlink is already a commercially profitable business, while Starship represents a potentially much larger future opportunity.
AI Adds Another Layer to the StorySpaceX is also positioning itself around artificial intelligence infrastructure. Its computing business is securing multi-year agreements with major AI giants Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Anthropic.
AI revenues jumped 247.5% year over year to $2.56 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Compute revenues reached $2.6 billion (+247% YoY). The segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the last reported quarter, reversing from a $276 million loss a year ago. Management expects compute capacity to exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end and 10 gigawatts by 2027 end.
That said, the AI opportunity also requires significant capital investment and faces intense competition. Its long-term contribution will depend on SpaceX's ability to scale capacity while maintaining attractive economics.
The Investment Case Comes With RisksThe biggest attraction is also the biggest challenge. SpaceX is pursuing several capital-intensive businesses simultaneously. Starship, Starlink and AI infrastructure all require substantial investment, while execution remains critical.
Second-quarter 2026 capital expenditures were approximately $18.4 billion, including about $15.8 billion for AI compute infrastructure. Management expects the next two quarters to remain near the second-quarter spending level. The company generated $3.54 billion of adjusted EBITDA but still reported a $541 million net loss.
Investors must also consider valuation. SpaceX's valuation already reflects significant expectations for future growth across these businesses. The company carries a Value Score of F. That means even strong operational progress may not automatically translate into attractive returns as the valuation assumes near-perfect execution.
Our TakeFlight 14 could become an important catalyst for SpaceX, particularly if Starship successfully reaches orbit and deploys Starlink V3 satellites. But the broader investment thesis rests on much more than one launch.
Starlink provides an established commercial foundation, Starship offers a potentially transformative opportunity in launch economics, and AI infrastructure adds another high-growth avenue. The combination creates significant long-term potential, but execution, capital requirements and valuation remain important considerations. As such, this isn’t the right time to buy SPCX shares. But existing shareholders can stay invested for the long haul.
SPCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a loss of 15 cents per share for SpaceX in 2026, followed by earnings of $1.63 per share in 2027, pointing to a sharp turnaround.
SpaceX čeká v listopadu zveřejnění výsledků, zatímco investoři sledují hlavně prudce rostoucí kapitálové výdaje. Akcie se po propadu na 105 USD vrátily na zhruba 155 USD.
Since going public in June, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%) has already experienced a full market cycle. Although shares were priced at $135, SpaceX stock opened closer to $150. From there, Elon Musk's space empire witnessed extreme volatility, even for an IPO stock -- ripping to an all-time high of roughly $226 before sliding all the way to $105 and eventually bouncing back toward $155.
This opening pop, fade, and subsequent rebound perfectly capture what happens when a tiny float meets giant expectations. With SpaceX's third-quarter earnings report expected in November, the question smart investors are asking is whether this bounce is a setup or a trap.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's S-1 displayed the company's different personalities SpaceX disclosed first-quarter numbers in its S-1 filing ahead of the IPO. The company's business model is split into three categories: space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Total revenue came in around $4.7 billion, up 15% year over year. Connectivity carried the company, with Starlink generating $3.3 billion in sales and about $1.2 billion in operating income. The space side of the business looked more like a development shop, with launch revenue totaling $619 million and bleeding a $662 million operating loss as research and development (R&D) costs for Starship chewed through $930 million.
The AI segment is the newer part of SpaceX's story. During the first quarter, AI booked just $818 million -- barely half of which came from true AI infrastructure rather than advertising. Even worse, this division lost $2.5 billion from operations.
The number that investors need to keep an eye on is capital spending. AI capital expenditures (capex) reached $7.7 billion during the first quarter, on top of $1.05 billion for the space business and $1.3 billion for broadband. Capex is the real line item to watch heading into Q3 earnings, not whether Starlink keeps adding subscribers, but whether accelerating infrastructure costs stay ahead of contracted revenue.
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SpaceX's sprint since going public In early August, investors got a thorough look at SpaceX for the first time as a public company. Admittedly, the company's acceleration looked real. Total revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion. Starlink reached 12 million subscribers while AI revenue nearly tripled to $2.6 billion as cloud hosting deals started showing up. Moreover, the company completed two Starship V3 tests in 90 days and completed Starship Flight 13 in July, which deployed 20 production V3 satellites.
The bigger shift is happening on the AI side of the house. Both Elon Musk and SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen are talking with a straight face about the company reaching an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate of $100 billion by year-end.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu is aligned with SpaceX's run rate target, calling the forecast "likely very achievable." SpaceX's AI-driven growth stems from two sources: integrating new services from the Cursor acquisition with Grok and signing cloud capacity agreements.
For now, SpaceX boasts the following compute deals: Anthropic for $1.25 billion a month, Google Cloud at $920 million a month, a $6.7 billion six-month contract rumored to be with the Department of Defense, another $1.11 billion-a-month deal beginning in December from an unnamed customer, and $150 million a month from Reflection AI. While its customer acquisition spree is impressive, SpaceX may be on the verge of taking things up a notch.
Bloomberg recently reported that SpaceX is potentially in talks to buy customer and operational data from AI start-ups that went belly up. If true, this would be incredibly savvy as SpaceX would essentially be buying cheap training fuel -- GPUs and memory -- while all of the other hyperscalers continue to pay a premium for off-the-shelf chips. This arbitrage would allow SpaceX to accelerate its ownership of scarce compute inputs while simultaneously selling the scarce output to customers who cannot afford to wait around.
SpaceX stock is not cheap, but it might be a buy anyway SpaceX currently boasts a market cap of around $2 trillion. If the company actually exits 2026 at a $100 billion ARR, the implied forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio would be about 20. That is rich compared to legacy industrial companies.
This is why investing in SpaceX is not a clean "buy the earnings" trade. November will likely be noisy, with ongoing capital expenditure concerns, additional lockup agreements expiring, and hopefully some commentary on whether the new cloud deals will scale or risk cancellation after a few months.
The real takeaway is to think longer-term. SpaceX is not just a rocket company anymore. Musk is stitching together a vertically integrated infrastructure conglomerate: launch and space exploration, Starlink broadband and telecom, terrestrial and potentially orbital data centers, chips through Terafab, robotics, and a frontier model.
SpaceX is not a stock to buy in hopes of an earnings pop. It is a business you own if conviction tells you the company's proprietary technology stack will compound for the following decades. In reality, the rebound from $105 has already priced in some hope. The November report should be the first of many signals of whether this hope is translating into a durable, competitive, and profitable opportunity.
Elon Musk uvedl, že Starlink by mohl do méně než 10 let přenášet většinu světového internetového provozu díky satelitům V3 s kapacitou kolem 10 Tbps obousměrně. SpaceX zároveň čeká, že zhruba 1 000 satelitů V3 začne výrazně zlepšovat službu.
Elon Musk just set a bandwidth target for Starlink's next satellite generation that would make today's network look primitive, and he put a deadline on when it rewrites global internet infrastructure.
On the August 4, 2026 earnings call, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) chief executive Elon Musk predicted Starlink could carry the bulk of global internet traffic within 10 years, driven by a next-generation satellite that multiplies delivered bandwidth dramatically.
This morning, in a post on X, he expanded on just how big that could be:
“Connectivity per sat will be more like 10Tb in both directions and there is a path to 100+Tb. Each sat is 250kW and will have a SpaceX-designed Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 computer.”
An Orders of Magnitude Bandwidth Claim In the conference call, Musk framed Starlink V3 as a step change. “The Starlink V3 satellite is about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite, which is already a very capable satellite,” he said. SpaceX expects “to launch about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites. That would mean a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.”
The revenue implication: “Even if our monetization per bit drops by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.” Each Gen3 satellite targets roughly 10 terabits per second bidirectional, with a path to more than 100 Tbps, with an FCC filing covering up to 100,000 Gen3 satellites accepted for filing in mid-September 2026 but not yet approved.
Majority of the World’s Internet, Under 10 Years Asked how big Starlink could get, Musk went further than in prior calls. “It’s not out of the question that at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world’s internet. At least in countries where we’re allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries,” he said. “And it’s not in the infinity future. It’s less than 10 years.”
He tied the demand side to machine traffic: “With the advent of AI and humanoid robotics and vehicle robotics and just a massive number of robots, the app type of bandwidth will be much greater than it has been in the past.”
Numbers Behind the Talk The Q2 2026 financials give the vision some grounding. Total revenue reached $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, with the connectivity segment contributing $4.3 billion, up 66% year over year. Starlink added more than 1.7 million net consumer subscribers, its best quarter ever, while ARPU held at $66 per month. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108% year over year, boosted by new deals with American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Southwest (NYSE:LUV), Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, and Aer Lingus and over $6 billion in multi-year Space Force Starshield contracts.
Musk credited execution: “In order to secure a large amount of enterprise revenue, you have to demonstrate a very high reliability, very high uptime. And in the early days, Starlink did not have high uptime.” President Gwynne Shotwell noted Starlink “has never lost an enterprise customer.”
What to Watch Management said a critical mass of about 1,000 V3 satellites is needed before service improvements become significant, expected by approximately the second quarter of next year. Musk told analysts, “A year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day and possibly more.” SPCX shares closed at $152.71 on September 18, up 9.35% over the past month.
If achieved, 10 Tbps (and especially a path to 100+ Tbps) per satellite would transform Starlink from a high-capacity broadband network into something capable of carrying a meaningful fraction of global internet traffic and supporting next-generation AI and industrial applications from orbit. It is one of the most aggressive capacity targets publicly stated for any satellite system.
Still, this remains a forward-looking claim. The FCC application for the large Gen3 constellation is still under review, and actual on-orbit performance, spectrum access, ground infrastructure, and Starship launch cadence will determine how much of the 10 Tbps (or 100 Tbps) vision is realized. Earlier V3 numbers were closer to 1 Tbps downlink; the jump to 10 Tbps bidirectional is ambitious.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
SpaceX údajně zvažuje nákup dat od problémových či zkrachovalých startupů, aby získala materiál pro lepší AI modely. Jde zatím jen o neformální interní debaty.
SpaceX (SPCX, Financials), Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite company, is reportedly considering an unusual way to get more of the raw material needed to build better AI models.
The company has held internal discussions about buying customer, operational and other data from troubled or failed startups, according to Bloomberg.
The talks remain informal and may not result in any transactions.
Still, the idea points to a growing issue across AI: valuable training data is becoming an asset of its own.
SpaceX has already used information from Musk's social network X, along with internal AI tutors, to help train and improve its software. The company reportedly paused hiring for those tutors earlier this year.
Buying data from struggling companies could give SpaceX another source without having to generate everything internally.
The push comes as AI becomes a larger part of SpaceX's spending.
The company invested $15.8 billion in AI-related capital expenditures during the second quarter. Its AI business generated $2.56 billion in revenue during the period but posted a $1.26 billion operating loss.
That makes the next question more important than where SpaceX finds the data.
Investors will be watching whether that spending can eventually turn the company's expanding AI operation into a profitable business.
Elon Musk uvedl, že Starlink je nyní často spolehlivější než kabel. Podle něj se tak satelitní síť SpaceX stává širším konkurentem klasického broadbandu.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) built Starlink to connect places traditional broadband could not reach. Now CEO Elon Musk says the satellite network has crossed a more consequential threshold: Starlink is "now often more reliable than cable."
The claim matters because reliability, rather than raw speed, could be what turns Starlink from a rural alternative into a broader broadband competitor.
Starlink Closes the GapMusk made the claim Friday on X, arguing that Starlink can now deliver a more dependable connection than cable in many cases.
There is some independent evidence behind the broader point. A Recon Analytics survey of more than 153,000 broadband users found that Starlink customers reported fewer service outages than cable and DSL customers, although fiber customers experienced fewer outages than Starlink users. Most of the Starlink respondents lived in rural areas, where terrestrial broadband options can be weaker.
That distinction is important. Musk did not say Starlink beats every cable or fiber network. His use of "often" leaves room for differences between markets and infrastructure.
Starlink’s own network has also improved significantly. SpaceX reported median global latency of about 26 milliseconds in 2025, while peak-hour median download speeds exceeded 200 Mbps. The company said it was targeting stable 20-millisecond median latency and lower packet loss as its constellation and ground network expanded.
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The Satellite AdvantageThe reliability argument becomes particularly interesting because Starlink does not need the same local infrastructure as cable.
A cable outage can be tied to a neighborhood node, damaged line or other terrestrial infrastructure. Starlink instead connects users through a constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites and ground stations. That gives the service a structural advantage in places where upgrading terrestrial networks is expensive or difficult.
The network is also getting bigger. SpaceX had more than 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit and about 10.3 million subscribers across 164 markets as of March 2026.
That scale matters because every additional satellite can add capacity and coverage to a network that is increasingly becoming an alternative to terrestrial broadband.
Reliability Could Unlock the Next MarketStarlink still has trade-offs. Independent broadband comparisons continue to find fiber more consistent in many locations, while Starlink can face weather-related disruptions, obstructions and higher costs than conventional broadband.
But reliability is becoming a different kind of selling point as the network matures.
For SpaceX investors, the bigger question is whether Starlink can move beyond being the best available option where cable is weak and become a credible alternative even where cable already exists.
Musk’s latest claim suggests SpaceX believes it is getting there — and subscriber growth, network performance and churn will be the numbers to watch next.
SpaceX se chystá na 22. září s prvním pokusem Starshipu dosáhnout oběžné dráhy a poprvé ponese 26 družic Starlink. Úspěch by ukázal, že raketa se mění v klíčový nástroj růstu Starlinku.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) Sept. 22 Starship flight will test more than whether the world’s biggest rocket can reach orbit. For investors, the more important question is whether Starship is finally becoming the infrastructure behind SpaceX’s next phase of growth, starting with Starlink.
Flight 14 could provide the clearest signal yet that the rocket is moving from development project to business asset.
Starship Meets StarlinkThe company is targeting Sept. 22 for Starship’s first attempt to reach Earth orbit, pending regulatory approval. The mission will deploy 26 third-generation Starlink satellites, making it the first Starship flight to carry an operational payload. The spacecraft is expected to complete roughly six orbits over nearly 10 hours before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean.
That payload is what makes this flight particularly relevant to investors. SpaceX is no longer testing Starship in isolation; it is testing whether the rocket can become part of Starlink’s expansion engine.
TechCrunch noted that the mission would also be the first Starship flight capable of generating revenue for SpaceX’s launch business, even though the payload comes from another part of the company.
The distinction matters because Starship’s eventual value depends on what it enables. More reliable launches could allow SpaceX to deploy satellites faster and at greater scale, supporting the growth of its connectivity business.
Orbit Is Only Step OneStill, investors should be careful about treating a successful orbital insertion as proof that Starship’s economics are solved.
SpaceX has not planned a tower catch for either the Starship upper stage or Super Heavy booster on this flight. Instead, both vehicles will splash down, while SpaceX has made additional hardware and software changes to address problems seen during the previous test.
That leaves the biggest part of the Starship investment thesis still ahead: reusability at high frequency.
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SpaceX ultimately needs Starship to launch, return, and fly again quickly enough to materially lower the cost of putting payloads into orbit. Flight 14 can demonstrate progress toward that goal, but it cannot prove the full economics on its own.
The Investor TestThat is why investors in Elon Musk‘s space company should watch the Sept. 22 mission in stages: orbital insertion, Starlink deployment, vehicle performance and the eventual splashdowns.
A successful flight would mark an important engineering milestone. More importantly, it would strengthen the case that Starship can become the launch backbone for Starlink’s next expansion phase. The bigger catalyst, however, will be the follow-on cadence: how quickly SpaceX can turn one successful orbital mission into a repeatable system.
For investors, Sept. 22 is therefore less about one launch than the beginning of a new question: can Starship turn SpaceX’s enormous engineering investment into a scalable economic advantage?
SpaceX posunula 14. testovací let Starshipu nejdříve na 28. září, pokud získá regulační souhlas. Akcie zároveň rostly díky nabitému plánu startů a silnému růstu Starlinku.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX shares traded higher on Thursday, extending the previous session’s rally as investors focused on the company’s busy launch schedule and plans for the next Starship test flight.
SpaceX successfully launched its USSF-259 mission on Wednesday aboard a Falcon 9 from Space Launch Complex 4E in California.
The rocket’s booster landed on a droneship following liftoff.
The company has several additional missions scheduled, including a Starlink launch on September 19-20 and the USSF-385 mission on September 26.
SpaceX announced Thursday that it had rescheduled the 14th test flight of Starship to as early as September 28, subject to regulatory approval.
According to the company’s release, the initial orbital mission is expected to reach approximately 275 kilometres above Earth and complete about six orbits during a nearly 10-hour flight.
The mission is expected to end with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile.
The launch schedule has added to investor attention around SpaceX’s space business.
Wednesday’s rally also followed comments from Cathie Wood, who suggested a single Starship mission could eventually be worth close to $1 billion if the vehicle reaches a target of 10,000 flights annually by 2030.
Air Force Secretary Troy Meink also recently discussed the presence of weapons already positioned in orbit as part of broader developments involving space-based capabilities.
The comments were not specific to SpaceX but added to the broader backdrop for the space industry.
Seeking Alpha analyst Danil Sereda noted that the stock was trading about 41% above its August lows following the company’s earnings results.
He said SpaceX’s business could be viewed across three main areas: launch, connectivity and AI.
The launch business includes Falcon 9, Starship V3 and Starshield. The connectivity business is led by Starlink, while the AI operations include xAI, Grok and terrestrial and orbital compute.
Sereda highlighted the capital requirements associated with the launch and AI businesses.
He said the launch unit generated $962 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up 29% year over year, but recorded an operating loss of $542 million.
The AI business generated $2.56 billion in revenue but recorded a $1.26 billion operating loss, Sereda noted.
Starlink remains key to SpaceX outlookStarlink is the largest profitable component highlighted by the analyst.
The segment's revenue increased 66% year over year to $4.29 billion in the second quarter, while its EBITDA margin reached 60.5%.
SpaceX added 1.7 million net subscribers during the quarter.
Average revenue per user declined from $99 a month to $66, although the figure stabilised on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Sereda said Starlink’s growth and operating leverage distinguish it from SpaceX’s more capital-intensive launch and AI businesses.
Starlink operated more than 10,200 low-Earth-orbit satellites across 167 markets and had 12 million active users as of the second quarter.
SpaceX’s latest launch activity and Starship plans therefore continue to draw attention, while investors assess the different growth and capital requirements across its launch, connectivity, and AI operations.
Elon Musk uvedl, že nová generace satelitů Starlink může časem zvýšit celkovou kapacitu sítě o více než 100krát oproti dnešku. Jde ale o odhad kapacity, ne o ověřená provozní data.
SpaceX's CEO just made a sweeping promise about Starlink's next generation that would dwarf everything the constellation delivers today, but the gap between a capacity claim and actual revenue is where fortunes get made or lost.
Elon Musk used a post on X to argue that the next generation of Starlink satellites now beginning deployment will eventually push the constellation’s total bandwidth to more than 100 times what the roughly 11,000 satellites currently in orbit deliver today. That is a capability claim from the company’s chief executive, not audited performance data, and investors in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) should treat it that way. Still, it is the kind of claim that reframes how you think about the biggest revenue engine inside the business.
SPCX was trading over $150 in the intraday, up nearly 6% on the session and 8.5% over the past month, against a market cap of roughly $2 trillion. Sentiment has cooled recently, with a composite reading of 35.75 flagged as bearish with medium confidence, driven mostly by a soft social score of 22 even as news sentiment sits closer to neutral at 49.49.
Why the Bandwidth Math Matters Starlink lives inside SpaceX’s Connectivity segment, which produced $4.29 billion in Q2 revenue, up 66% year over year. On the Q2 earnings release filed August 4, SpaceX disclosed that its roughly 9,600 broadband satellites currently produce about 800 terabits per second of downlink capacity, serving 12.0 million subscribers across 167 markets. That is the base rate any bandwidth multiplier is applied against.
On the earnings call, Musk framed the V3 architecture in similar terms, calling each satellite “about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite” and saying SpaceX plans to launch “about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites,” which he said would produce “a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.” His revenue framing was direct: “Even if our monetization per bit drops by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.”
Turning Capacity Into Cash Bandwidth is a supply metric. Turning it into cash requires demand, ground infrastructure, spectrum, and regulatory clearance in each market. Starlink’s average revenue per user has already declined from $85 to $66 as the subscriber base broadened, and management said further geographic expansion could pull blended ARPU lower even as subscribers grow.
The near-term V3 timeline is also more measured than the headline claim suggests. Management said a critical mass of roughly 1,000 V3 satellites is likely needed before customers see substantially better service, expected around the second quarter of next year. Musk targeted Starship flight 14 as the first mission to carry V3 satellites into operational orbit, a target that remains subject to regulatory approval and flight test outcomes.
What Investors Should Watch The bandwidth-to-revenue conversion will show up in a handful of specific line items:
Enterprise and Government revenue, which grew 108% year over year to $1.806 billion. Gwynne Shotwell said this bucket could “at least [be] comparable to but likely exceed our consumer business.” Aviation penetration, currently “less than 10% penetrated,” with new deals covering American Airlines, Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia and Aer Lingus. Starlink Mobile, which is expected to integrate 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum after FCC approval, with commercial service targeted for the end of next year. ARPU trend, and whether higher-tier plans emerge as V3 capacity comes online. Backlog, last reported at $47.5 billion, and progress toward management’s $100 billion annualized revenue run rate target for December. Musk’s 100x claim is a statement about the ceiling. The stock price will track how much of that ceiling gets sold through, quarter by quarter.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Starlink, the satellite internet service of SpaceX (SPCX +4.72%), ended June with 12.0 million subscribers -- twice the count of a year earlier, and up 1.7 million in the second quarter alone.
Growth like that typically slows as the base gets bigger. Starlink's has been speeding up.
Here's my prediction: it doubles again. I think Starlink reaches 24 million subscribers by the end of 2027. That looks like a stretch for a service already this big. After all, the next 12 million subscribers need to come on top of everyone who has already signed up. But the company's own numbers do most of the work, and the required pace is near what Starlink just delivered.
Image source: Getty Images.
What would doubling again take?Going from 12.0 million subscribers to 24 million by the end of 2027 means gaining 12 million over six quarters, or about 2 million a quarter. Starlink added 1.7 million during the second quarter. The subscriber count was at 6.0 million in June 2025, reached 10.3 million by the end of March, and hit 12.0 million three months later. That works out to average additions of 1.5 million a quarter over the last year, with the latest quarter running ahead of the average.
In other words, the prediction asks Starlink to do modestly better than it just did, and to maintain that pace through the end of next year.
Price might be one reason to think it can. Starlink's average revenue per user was $66 a month in the second quarter (and for the first half as a whole), down from $85 a year earlier. Whatever mix of plans and markets lies behind that decline, the service now brings in meaningfully less per subscriber than it did a year ago.
And subscriber growth accelerated alongside the lower average.
More capacity is on the wayA satellite internet service can only sell the bandwidth its constellation can provide, so capacity is the practical limit on subscriber growth.
The tech company is spending against exactly that. The company reported research and development spending in its connectivity segment rose partly to fund its next-generation V3 satellites, which it expects to meaningfully increase how much broadband its network can deliver.
And the rollout isn't waiting on anyone else's rockets. SpaceX flew 78 launches in the first half of 2026 and sent just over 1,000 metric tons into orbit, most of that mass Starlink satellites bound for the constellation.
What would 24 million be worth?The connectivity segment, home to Starlink, is already SpaceX's profit engine. Second-quarter connectivity revenue rose 66% year over year to $4.3 billion, and the segment's income from operations rose 79% to $1.7 billion. That operating profit amounted to just under 39% of the segment's revenue, up from about 36% both a year earlier and in the first quarter.
So the segment earns more money on more subscribers, even though Starlink takes in less per subscriber than it did a year ago.
At 24 million subscribers and the current $66 monthly average, subscription revenue alone would run to about $19 billion a year, before any hardware sales or enterprise contracts. That is more than the whole segment produces today at its second-quarter pace.
Notably, the subscriber count excludes a growing piece of the segment entirely. Enterprise and government revenue (billed under negotiated contracts, so it sits outside the subscriber count) more than doubled year over year to $1.8 billion in the second quarter. My 24 million call captures none of that.
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Will Starlink make it all the way to 24 million before 2027 ends? I think it will. Two million a quarter asks a little more of the service than the 1.7 million it just delivered, not a lot more, and the satellites required to serve those subscribers are already being funded.
Of course, additions might slow as Starlink works through its easiest markets. A further step down in pricing would also make each new subscriber worth less. But the second quarter delivered the opposite on both counts -- faster additions at a stable average.
Whether to buy the growth stock is another question.
At about $148 as of this writing, SpaceX has a market value near $2 trillion -- a valuation that already appears to assume years of growth like this. So, while I expect the subscriber milestone to arrive, I'd hold off on buying shares here.
Cathie Wood označuje SpaceX za „deep value play“ při poměru ceny k tržbám 85, zatímco Scott Galloway vidí stejné číslo jako výrazné nadhodnocení. Spor stojí na tom, zda Starship skutečně doručí očekávaný růst.
Cathie Wood calls SpaceX a deep value play at a price-to-sales ratio of 85, while Scott Galloway sees the opposite staring at the same numbers. The case for each hinges on a single question neither side can fully answer yet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) was trading over $150 intraday, with a reported market capitalization over $2 trillion. Cathie Wood, chief investment officer at ARK Invest, has publicly argued that SPCX will look like a deep value opportunity in hindsight if Starship delivers on Elon Musk’s launch cadence and payload targets. Some analysts are divided on this, but it’s worth checking the math.
Wood’s Thesis in Plain Language Wood’s argument compounds two variables: how many Starship flights per year SpaceX can achieve, and how much revenue each flight can support once Starship is fully and rapidly reusable. Musk told analysts on the August 4, 2026 call that “we expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly and probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day and possibly more,” with aspirations to deliver “well over a million tons to orbit per year and probably ultimately 10 million tons per year.” Wood extrapolates from those launch economics to an annual revenue potential large enough to make today’s price look cheap.
It’s worth pointing out that this extrapolation belongs to Wood alone. SpaceX management’s own stated marker is more restrained: internal projections for $1 trillion in revenue moved from 2031 to 2030, with “a non-zero chance” of reaching it in 2029. Anything larger circulating under Wood’s name should be read as her modeling of a physically possible outcome, not guidance SpaceX stands behind.
Multiples Wood Is Calling Cheap SPCX currently carries a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 85, an EV/EBITDA of 512, and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 204. Price-to-sales measures what investors pay for each dollar of revenue; a reading in the 80s is what markets historically reserve for early-stage software with runway to expand margins. EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value against pretax operating cash generation, and a reading above 500 says the current business barely registers against what the market is pricing in.
Wood’s framing accepts those multiples as trivially small versus what Starship-scale launch revenue could underwrite. It is a bet on the numerator eventually growing into the denominator.
Why Growth Bulls Have Ammunition Q2 2026 revenue grew 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, beating consensus by 14.59%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million, and the connectivity segment produced $4.29 billion in revenue. Management said it expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December. The 220.68 analyst target price against a 50-day moving average of 134.8 reflects a Street tilted bullish, with 22 buy and 6 strong buy ratings. Full details of the quarter are in the 8-K filing.
Two Prominent Investors, Opposite Verdicts Scott Galloway has publicly argued SpaceX is drastically overvalued, a bear case 24/7 Wall St. covered previously. Wood and Galloway are staring at the same $23.04 billion trailing revenue base, the same negative $1.10 diluted EPS, and the same triple-digit sales multiple, and arriving at opposite conclusions. The disagreement centers on how much of Starship’s future the reader should already treat as delivered.
What Would Validate the Deep Value Call Starship Flight 14 is tentatively scheduled for the end of the month pending regulatory approval, and CFO Bret framed it as the first flight to carry version 3 Starlink satellites to operational orbit, a shift from demonstration to production cadence. A successful tower catch of the ship, sustained flight cadence, and Starlink ARPU stabilizing above the $66 level would give Wood’s math oxygen. Continued $18.37 billion quarterly capex against triple-digit multiples would give Galloway his. Investors can track official milestones on the SpaceX investor relations site.
Wood’s deep value framing is defensible only under her own launch-economics extrapolation, which is not SpaceX guidance. At an EV/EBITDA above 500, the market is already pricing a version of Starship that works. If Flight 14 and the flights behind it confirm rapid reusability at cadence, Wood will look prescient. If cadence slips while capex compounds, the multiple will do the correcting.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Buy SpaceX (SPCX). The article points to accelerating revenue (92% YoY in Q2) plus large AI contracts (e.g., $1B/month deal, Anthropic $1.25B/month, Google $950M). That combination should drive operating leverage as profits catch up, and multiple analysts still see upside toward ~$221 and even >$500 over five years. Starship progress (Sept 22) is a near-term catalyst that can reinforce the growth narrative.
Key Risk: AI capex keeps rising faster than revenue, so margins don’t improve and the stock rerates lower despite top-line growth.
SPCX volatility fade
Sell short-dated downside in SPCX via a put spread (e.g., buy 1-month 130 put, sell 1-month 110 put). The “AI safety jitters” are the stated reason for the current drop, but the core fundamentals in the article are long-duration (multi-year AI revenue deals, Starship milestones, eventual capex peak). This setup targets a rebound/mean reversion after the headline-driven selloff.
Key Risk: A real regulatory or safety event triggers a sustained earnings-risk repricing (not just jitters), pushing SPCX materially below the spread strikes.
SpaceX stock is falling this week as jitters about the artificial intelligence safety continues. SPCX dropped to $143.50 on Tuesday, a few points below this month’s high of $154. This article explains some of the top reasons why the stock has more room for growth in the next five years.
The main catalyst that will drive SpaceX shares in the next five years is its strong revenue growth, which will translate to profits eventually. Its last earnings report showed that its revenue jumped by 92% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion, with the three segments reporting strong growth.
SpaceX has more room for growth in the coming years, especially because of its artificial intelligence (AI) business. Last week, the company announced that it reached a deal with a company that will pay $1 billion a month starting later this year.
The company has inked more deals in the future. For example, it has inked a $1.25 billion a month deal with Anthropic, a $950 million deal with Google, and a $150 million one with Reflection AI.
Analysts now expect that its growth will supercharge in the coming years. Yahoo Finance data estimates that the company will make $44.76 billion this year, much higher than the $18 billion it made last year. It is expected to make $109 billion next year.
These numbers largely confirm what Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predicted about its company. Goldman Sachs believes that the revenue will jump to over $474 billion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley predicts that it will surge to between $3.4 trillion and $3.5 trillion by 2040. Goldman and Morgan Stanley were the lead banks in its IPO.
Top analysts are highly bullish on the company, which might boost its shares in the long term. William Blair reiterated its outperform rating, while Pivotal Research initiated the company with a buy rating and a price target of $220.
Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan has an outperform rating and a price target of $280, while Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, and Wolfe Research reiterated their outperform ratings.
The average estimate among analysts is that its stock will jump to $221, much higher than the current $143. Eventually, there is a room for the stock to jump to over $500 in the next five years.
SpaceX stock will also benefit from the upcoming Starship mega-rocket launch that will happen on September 22. The company plans to deploy the first batch of the third-generation Starlinks into its network. Initially, it plans to launch 26 V3 satellites into orbit in the test flight.
The upcoming launch will be the second one since the company became a publicly-traded company in June. If successful, it will represent the first major milestone for the company as it seeks to retire its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets.
A key risk for SpaceX is that its capital expenditure continues rising. Its last results showed that its capex jumped to $18.36 billion in the second quarter, much higher than the $10 billion it spent in the second quarter of last year. Most of the capex came from its AI business, which jumped to $15 billion.
The capex growth will likely continue in the coming years as it continues to roll out its data centers and build its Terafabs plant. Fortunately, the company has over $100 billion in cash. This spending phase will eventually be over, making the company highly profitable in the coming years.
Separately, history shows that stocks tend to drop after its IPO and then rebound over time. We saw that with companies like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Netflix.
SpaceX získala veřejně oznámené kontrakty za zhruba 8,05 miliardy USD v oblastech snímání, komunikací a startů. Starshield navíc ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 získal více než 6 miliard USD vládních kontraktů.
Key Takeaways SPCX has about $8.05 billion in announced awards across sensing, communications and launch.Golden Dome gives SpaceX a path into space-based interceptors, with a 2028 demo target.Starshield won more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts in second-quarter 2026. The U.S. Space Force’s confirmation that operational weapons have been deployed in space marks a significant step in the evolution of the nation’s defense strategy and underscores the growing importance of space as a key military domain. While technical details surrounding these systems remain classified, officials and industry experts suggest that the capabilities are aimed at supporting both offensive and defensive “space superiority” missions.
The development brings the spotlight on defense contractors and commercial space companies, such as Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX, as the United States continues to expand investments in next-generation space-based defense infrastructure. With national security priorities increasingly extending beyond terrestrial and aerial domains, companies with exposure to satellite systems, launch services, advanced communications and space defense technologies could remain in focus.
SPCX Builds the Infrastructure Around Space WarfareSpaceX's role in defense has expanded well beyond launching military satellites. In May, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $4.16 billion contract for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) program. The project is designed to create a space-based sensing layer capable of tracking and targeting airborne threats globally, with an initial constellation expected to be fielded by 2028.
SpaceX added another $1.6 billion in July when the Space Force awarded the company task orders for 18 Falcon 9 launches supporting its Space-Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio. These missions are expected to be completed by the end of 2027. The company recently received a $2.29 billion award to develop the Space Data Network Backbone. The network is intended to provide a resilient, high-speed communications layer that can transfer information between military sensors, command systems and other assets.
Taken together, these three publicly announced awards represent about $8.05 billion of potential contract value across sensing, communications and launch. Modern missile-defense and space-control architectures require more than weapons. They need satellites that can identify threats, networks capable of moving targeting information rapidly and reliable launch systems that can deploy and replenish orbital assets – areas in which SpaceX operates.
Golden Dome Adds Direct Interceptor OpportunitySpaceX could eventually move even closer to the weapons layer itself. The Space Force has issued 20 agreements to 12 companies for the development of space-based interceptors under the Golden Dome missile-defense architecture. The agreements have a potential combined value of up to $3.2 billion. SpaceX is among the companies selected, alongside Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) , among others.
The Space-Based Interceptor program is targeting a proliferated low-Earth-orbit constellation capable of engaging missile threats during boost, midcourse and glide phases. An initial capability is targeted for demonstration within the Golden Dome architecture by 2028.
For SpaceX, participation could provide another avenue to monetize its vertically integrated space ecosystem. Falcon 9 and eventually Starship can provide launch capacity, while Starshield satellites, optical links and secure communications infrastructure could support other layers of the military architecture.
Starshield Could Become a Bigger SPCX Growth PillarIn second-quarter 2026, more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts were awarded to Starshield. SpaceX lists Earth observation, secure communications and hosted payloads among the platform's core capabilities.
That gives SPCX an important advantage. Instead of developing an entirely separate defense platform from scratch, the company can reuse satellite production, launch infrastructure, networking technologies and software developed across its commercial businesses. A larger government pipeline could also diversify SpaceX away from its dependence on Starlink consumer subscriptions and rapidly expanding AI infrastructure.
End NoteThe U.S. military's shift toward orbital sensing, communications, tracking and weapons creates a potentially large addressable market. SpaceX's launch dominance, Starshield platform and vertical integration leave it well-positioned to compete for that spending.
However, the technical challenge of developing scalable space-based interceptors remains considerable. The expanding defense opportunity adds another powerful long-term growth engine, but investors may want to see government awards translate into sustained revenues and earnings before assigning substantially more value to the space-weapons theme.
While high operating costs and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears poised to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. Those who already own the stock can hold onto it while new investors may wait for a better entry point.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SpaceX čeká 24. září další uvolnění až 328,4 milionu akcií k prodeji, což může vyvolat tlak na cenu. Předchozí uvolnění 9. září doprovodil denní pokles o 3,9 %.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.15%) went public in June and immediately became one of the market's biggest battleground stocks. While the company's share price has seen significant valuation swings and is down roughly 34% from its lifetime high, it has also seen strong pricing support above the $135 per share at which it was listed for its initial public offering (IPO). The stock is also currently roughly in line with the $150-per-share price at which it opened on the day of its IPO.
On the other hand, SpaceX stock is on the verge of another major lockup expiration -- an event that will make a large tranche of shares available for sale by insider owners. Here's what history says that could mean for other shareholders.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's lockup expirations could pressure the stock On Sept. 24, up to 328.4 million shares of SpaceX stock will be unlocked for sale. With a substantial number of shares potentially hitting the market, the company's stock price could face significant pressure.
SpaceX currently has a market capitalization of roughly $2.05 trillion, and insider shareholders have the opportunity to lock in life-changing wealth by selling some of their stock at current levels. That doesn't necessarily mean that these insiders don't have confidence in the company. Employees at all levels of the company own SpaceX stock, and the company has seen enormous valuation growth from its early days through the lead-up to its IPO and short history as a publicly traded business.
The last lockup expiration for the stock occurred on Sept. 9 and coincided with a 3.9% decline for the company's share price in the daily session. Given historical trading trends on days in which a large new tranche of shares becomes available for sale, it's reasonable to expect that the stock will face some meaningful selling pressure on Sept. 24. On the other hand, that doesn't necessarily guarantee that the stock will lose ground in the session or that it will move lower in the lead up to the next round of new shares becoming eligible for sale.
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What about other lockup expirations for the stock? While the lockup expiration for SpaceX stock on Sept. 24 looks to be a significant event, it's actually part of a bigger lockup expiration chain on the horizon. Up to 328.4 million new shares will become eligible for sale on both Oct. 9 and Oct. 24. Up to 1.3 billion shares will become available for sale following the company's Q3 earnings release, and roughly 800 million additional shares will then be unlocked for sale on Dec. 8 -- but an even bigger lockup expiration is set to occur next year.
On June 12, one year after SpaceX's IPO, CEO Elon Musk's stake in the company will become eligible for sale. According to the last available regulatory filings, Musk owns roughly 48.4% of the company's stock.
Again, lockup expirations don't necessarily mean a company's share price will see a big pullback. If investors become more confident about the macroeconomic backdrop and SpaceX delivers encouraging business news, the company's valuation could climb substantially even if some insiders sell stock. The lockup expirations mean a large number of shares will become unlocked for sale by insiders, but the stock could still climb through and after these events if there is strong market demand.
While SpaceX trades at a highly growth-dependent valuation that makes its stock a risky play, the company's business performance has generally looked encouraging recently. In its August Q2 report, SpaceX announced a loss of $0.09 per share on sales of $7.81 billion -- significantly better than the average analyst estimate, which called for a per-share loss of $0.26 on revenue of $6.93 billion.
SpaceX's revenue increased 92% year over year in the quarter, and its net loss narrowed to $541 million from roughly $1 billion in the prior-year quarter, even as the company continued to spend heavily to improve its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) market. While Musk's company remains best known for its Starlink and rocket businesses, AI is actually the most important part of the business's growth strategy. If SpaceX succeeds in its ambitions in the category, selling pressures connected to lockup expirations won't matter over the long term.
SpaceX ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 zvýšila výnosy na zhruba 7,8 miliardy USD, meziročně o 92 %, ale zůstává nerentabilní. Autor přesto akcie nekupuje kvůli vysokému ocenění.
I like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.00%), otherwise known as SpaceX. It's one of the most extraordinary companies I've ever come across.
Starlink, its satellite internet service, is becoming a global business. SpaceX's artificial intelligence operations are growing at an extraordinary pace. Falcon 9 has already transformed the economics of launching satellites. And Starship -- the next-generation rocket -- could eventually make it dramatically cheaper to get payloads into orbit.
The company has an ambitious founder, an enormous balance sheet, and a track record of turning seemingly impossible ideas into real businesses. So why am I not buying SpaceX stock despite all these reasons?
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is an incredible business Let's get one thing out of the way. This isn't a bear case on SpaceX. The company is executing at a level few businesses can match.
Revenue reached approximately $7.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 92% from a year earlier. Starlink generated $4.3 billion of revenue and roughly $1.7 billion of operating income. Its subscriber base reached approximately 12 million. Meanwhile, AI-related revenue surged 247% to approximately $2.6 billion.
Those aren't numbers you see from an ordinary aerospace company. They show that SpaceX is already building multiple large businesses simultaneously. And the opportunity ahead could be much larger across these segments.
In short, I think SpaceX is a great company well-positioned for long-term growth.
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But the market already knows the story Here's the problem with investing in a great company: Everyone else can see it, too. At $153 per share (as of writing), SpaceX has a market capitalization of around $2 trillion. Comparatively, annualized revenue ($7.8 billion x 4) stands at $31.2 billion, and the company is still unprofitable.
At that price, investors aren't simply buying today's business. They're buying a huge portion of tomorrow's success. They're assuming Starlink will continue to grow and that AI will become a major, highly profitable business. They're assigning substantial value to Starship before its economics have been proven at commercial scale. Or investors are exuberant and willing to pay any price for the stock.
And that makes investing in SpaceX rather difficult. Imagine SpaceX executes well and becomes an extraordinary business over the next decade. Starlink keeps compounding. AI becomes a major profit center. And Starship works.
Yet, the stock could still disappoint. Why? Because if investors have already paid for much of that success today, it leaves little room for future price appreciation. That's the difference between a great company and a great investment.
What would make me change my mind? Simple. I'm waiting for the stock price to become more attractive relative to the opportunity. That could happen in several ways. SpaceX could continue to grow rapidly while its valuation remains relatively flat, allowing the business to outpace the stock price.
Or the market could become worried about the company's enormous capital spending -- $18.4 billion in a single quarter -- prompting investors to question the return on capital. It could also happen if execution encounters speed bumps, such as Starship experiencing meaningful delays or Starlink growth temporarily slowing.
Any of these events could create a better entry point without destroying the long-term thesis. That's the kind of opportunity I'm looking for. Because the best time to buy a great business isn't necessarily when everyone agrees it's great -- it's when the market temporarily becomes less certain about how great it can become.
The downside is that the waiting may cause me to miss some upside. And that is the uncomfortable truth about investing: Sometimes the right decision is to let an opportunity pass, especially if it doesn't offer the right risk-reward ratio.
What does it mean for investors? There's no doubt that SpaceX is one of the most interesting companies on the planet, doing things that almost no other companies are doing. But still, investing is not about buying the best companies. It's about buying the right company at the right price. In other words, valuation matters.
In short, I like SpaceX. I believe in its long-term opportunity, and I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one of the greatest companies of the next decade. I'm just not willing to pay today's price for that outcome. I'd rather wait for the market to give me a better entry point.
SpaceX is ready to perform the 14th test flight of its Starship mega-rocket, and now the company will finally try to put the upper stage into Earth’s orbit for the first time, the company announced Tuesday.
The test launch is scheduled for September 22, with a 75-minute launch window opening at 7:15 a.m. CT. During the test launch, SpaceX plans to deploy the first batch of third-generation Starlinks into its network of 10,000 internet satellites. The company expects to launch 26 V3 satellites into orbit in this test flight.
If successful, this will be the first Starship launch to generate revenue for SpaceX’s launch division (even if that revenue is coming from another division of the company).
This will be the second Starship test launch since SpaceX became a publicly traded company in the largest IPO in history in June. The first came in July, when SpaceX successfully deployed V3 Starlink satellites for the first time — though those were only meant to test Starship’s deployment capability and burned up in Earth’s atmosphere after roughly 20 minutes.
Getting Starship’s upper stage into orbit around Earth would represent a major milestone for SpaceX. The company has spent billions of dollars on the program and is now looking to retire its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets in favor of Starship. Founder and CEO Elon Musk has said that will happen once Starship is flying “reliably several times per week” to save “scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources.”
SpaceX needs Starship to reliably reach orbit, return to Earth, and get quickly reused to fulfill the massive launch cadence promises that it made during the IPO process.
Starship’s 14th test flight will only test the first part of that equation, though. Musk recently walked back previous claims that SpaceX might try to use its launch tower to catch the Starship upper stage during this flight, saying an explosion would be too big a setback for the company at this point.
SpaceX also won’t try to catch the Super Heavy booster this time. The company has struggled with the booster during its last few test flights and has made multiple changes to try to prevent failures. Yet the booster still struggled to properly relight its engines after separating from the Starship upper stage on Flight 13 in July. For this mission, SpaceX said Tuesday that it made another round of “several modifications” to the booster’s hardware and software to “address issues seen on the previous flight.”
SpaceX had far more success with the upper stage of Starship on Flight 13. While it did not reach orbit, it had a smooth flight through a simulated landing in the Indian Ocean. The upper stage didn’t even explode when it tipped over into the water, allowing SpaceX to spend the last few months capturing and slowly towing it back to its Texas headquarters.
SpaceX said Tuesday that it has made additional changes to the Starship heat shield based on what it learned from studying the recovered upper stage from Flight 13.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
SPCX v úterý klesly téměř o 3 % kvůli dalšímu tlaku z uvolňování akcií k prodeji. Investoři zároveň sledují test Starshipu, který má přijít 22. září, se záložním termínem 23. září.
SpaceX SPCX stock slipped nearly 3% early Tuesday, extending a roughly 2% decline on Monday.
Shares were trading around $144, close to the level of their $150 debut price.
The stock has nevertheless recovered significantly over the past several weeks after falling to a record low of $104.83 on August 3.
The latest pullback comes as investors look ahead to both additional lockup releases and a potentially important Starship test later this month.
Unlike a typical IPO, SpaceX did not establish a single 180-day lockup expiration.
Its prospectus instead spread insider selling eligibility across roughly a dozen dates, limiting the amount of new supply released at any one time.
The staggered structure, however, has not eliminated the pressure from potential selling.
Shares fell around 3% during the latest major release after up to 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading, representing roughly $49 billion at recent prices.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day.
Several additional unlocks are scheduled before the end of 2026.
On September 24, around 320 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading.
Another roughly 320 million shares are scheduled for October 9 and October 24.
The largest release is expected two full trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter results, which are expected in late October or early November.
Up to 1.3 billion shares, or about 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable at that point.
December 8 marks the 180-day expiration, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
That creates a persistent overhang for investors, particularly as early shareholders gain more opportunities to take profits following SpaceX’s recovery from its August low.
While the lockup schedule represents a supply-side risk for SPCX, Starship remains one of the company’s biggest potential long-term catalysts.
SpaceX is scheduled to launch its 14th Starship test flight on September 22 from Starbase, Texas, according to the FAA’s Current Operations Plan Advisory.
September 23 is listed as a backup date.
The launch comes after CFO Bret Johnsen said last week that Flight 14 will be the first revenue-generating flight for Starship.
The spacecraft is expected to carry production-grade Version 3 Starlink satellites into orbit, which Johnsen described as a major milestone.
Elon Musk said Monday that Flight 14 will be the final test before SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship spacecraft with its launch tower.
“We've got flight 14 coming up, of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship,” Musk said at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles. “So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship.”
Musk also said SpaceX could later this year, or more likely early next year, attempt to refly both the Starship spacecraft and booster.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the ability to reuse its boosters, but it has yet to successfully perform a tower catch of the Starship spacecraft or fly the ship again.
The upcoming tests matter because a large part of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said earlier this month that achieving full reusability is central to whether SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation can be justified.
His $220 price target assumes Starship can achieve 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and rapid turnaround times.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said. “If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”
The potential scale is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9.
SpaceX má při čtvrtečním rebalancování indexu Nasdaq-100 více než dvojnásobně vyšší váhu, což má vyvolat nucené nákupy v objemu 15,5 až 22 miliard USD.
For investors tracking technology trends and aerospace investments, a notable event is unfolding on Wall Street.
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On Friday, Sept. 18, index-tracking funds will make one of the quarter's largest programmatic portfolio adjustments. As post-IPO lockups expire and more of SpaceX's NASDAQ: SPCX shares become freely tradable, the benchmark weighting for SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 will more than double at the quarterly rebalance.
For individual investors, this adjustment provides a transparent window into how the modern market functions. Index funds such as Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ, with its market capitalization of over $470 billion, must now allocate billions of dollars at the closing bell, regardless of near-term headlines or market sentiment. Examining how this required capital reallocation interacts with the expanding space economy helps investors separate short-term trading mechanics from fundamental business value.
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Nasdaq-100 Lifts the Launchpad for SpaceXTo understand this capital reallocation, investors need to examine the Nasdaq-100 Index's governing framework. When SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion at $135 per share, it entered public trading with a closely held share base.
The index administrator applies a float-capping rule whenever public float comprises less than 33.3% of total shares. Under this guideline, the index calculates weighting based on three times the freely tradable float rather than full market capitalization.
When SpaceX joined the benchmark on July 7, 2026, this constraint capped its representation at about 1.28%, placing it nineteenth in index weight despite a market valuation near $2 trillion.
That regulatory cap has now widened. Two post-offering lockup periods expired on Aug. 6 and Aug. 20, releasing more than 1.2 billion shares. Major venture backers and long-term funds held onto their stakes, allowing the tradable supply to expand without triggering secondary market selling. This increase in float met index eligibility rules, lifting SpaceX's projected weighting to about 2.82% ahead of the official rebalancing on Monday, Sept. 21.
For index-tracking exchange-traded funds managing about $1.7 trillion benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100, this rebalance is automatic. Funds must buy between $15.5 billion and $22 billion of SpaceX shares, concentrating purchase orders during the closing cross on Sept. 18 to limit tracking error.
Commercial Space Reaches Escape VelocityIndex rebalancing may drive the short-term buying and selling, but the commercial space sector is riding a much longer wave of growth. The orbital economy is shifting from experimental rocket flights to vital global infrastructure. Modern businesses and government agencies treat low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks as indispensable public communications utilities.
National security procurement provides an ongoing foundation for this industry expansion. Modernization initiatives within the Space Development Agency (SDA) consistently allocate defense capital to distributed LEO constellations for missile tracking and encrypted tactical communications. Commercial direct-to-cell telecom connectivity continues to widen the market, connecting ordinary smartphones directly to space-based infrastructure.
Orbital edge computing is emerging as another growth area for the industry. Space systems are beginning to incorporate dedicated data processors, including systems planned around NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA architecture.
Conducting data processing in orbit before downlinking reduces signal latency and creates higher-margin software business models. For investors focused on long-term themes, the ongoing buildout of space logistics and communications represents a compelling trend.
Gravity Catches Up With Operating MomentumAssessing an individual business requires looking beyond broad sector tailwinds. SpaceX achieved operational progress in the second quarter of 2026, posting $7.81 billion in revenue, which represents an increase of 91.9% year-over-year (YOY).
The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 9 cents, coming in ahead of analyst expectations of a 26-cent loss. Balance sheet metrics remain steady, supported by a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99, and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29.
Investors should weigh these operational milestones against a demanding valuation. Based on annual sales near $18.67 billion, SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 106x. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.79%, high-multiple stocks face valuation compression if broader market multiples adjust downward.
Capital expenditures also remain substantial. Maintaining high launch frequencies, manufacturing Starlink user hardware, and funding Starship flight testing absorb significant capital. Until operating cash flows comfortably outpace infrastructure spending, SpaceX shares will remain sensitive to broader shifts in technology valuations.
Space Traffic Ahead: Dodging Reentry Heat on Rebalance DayMandatory index buying against a closely held share base has led some market analysts to anticipate a mechanical price surge heading into Sept. 18. Even with substantial passive capital flows on the horizon, historical market patterns suggest caution toward front-running strategies.
When SpaceX entered the index on July 7, passive indexers absorbed about $4.3 billion in forced purchases, yet SpaceX shares fell more than 6% that day. Institutional liquidity providers and short-term traders who accumulated shares before the event used the closing liquidity to unwind their positions. A similar situation could occur if speculative buying becomes overcrowded before Friday's closing bell.
Future share unlocks introduce another layer of supply. More than 2.3 billion restricted shares are scheduled to exit lockup restrictions across late October and mid-November after third-quarter results. This substantial volume of potential stock could limit upward price progress beyond the current $146 to $152 trading corridor.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, September, 15, 2026
Charting Your Course in the Orbital Tech FrontierThe upcoming rebalancing event provides a useful opportunity to study market mechanics in real time. Investors with a constructive outlook on the space economy might explore diversified aerospace contractors or satellite equipment suppliers trading at lower valuation multiples than SpaceX.
For investors interested in SpaceX, a patient stance can be a prudent path forward. Waiting for the market to absorb the Sept. 18 index rebalance volume and observing how SpaceX navigates its autumn lockup expirations should offer a clearer, more balanced view of long-term entry levels.
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SpaceX získala prvního zákazníka pro Starfall: integrátor Space Cargo plánuje první komerční misi Starship v roce 2028. Na palubě poletí jeho BentoBox s až 1 tunou nákladu.
SpaceX's new Starfall business of returning products and other payloads from Earth's orbit has signed a mission deal with integrator Space Cargo as the unit's first customer, the company's Chief Executive Nicolas Gaume told Reuters.
Space Cargo aims to fly in 2028 an orbital reentry flight on the first commercial mission of Starship, which will deploy SpaceX's Starfall - a disk-shaped capsule designed to carry materials on short trips through orbit and back to Earth.
Launched aboard Falcon 9 and eventually Starship, Starfall is an aluminum housing protected by a 10-foot (3-m) -wide heatshield that SpaceX offers to customers seeking to make products or do research in the microgravity of space.
Luxembourg-based Space Cargo will place its "BentoBox" system in the Starfall capsule, positioning itself as an integrator in the SpaceX program with plans to book more such future missions, Space Cargo CEO Gaume said.
"We're flying 200 kilos with our current systems, but with Starship and Starfall, we're going to go to ton and tons" of customer payloads, "and that’s really what we want," he added.
The box would secure up to 1 ton of different types of payloads from Space Cargo's own customers that it signed up for the mission, allowing them to survive reentry and be safely returned to Earth for commercial use.
The Space Cargo deal is the first known customer for SpaceX's Starfall program, which emerged quickly earlier this year before demonstrating a capsule mission in June.
The product's central capability is its heatshield, a commodification of SpaceX's experience ferrying its larger Dragon capsules between Earth and space mainly for NASA.
The first BentoBox on a Starfall capsule will be among payloads on SpaceX's first commercial mission with Starship, SpaceX's giant next-generation rocket under development, Gaume said.
That mission is planned for 2028, Space Cargo said in a statement.
SpaceX, which did not respond to a request for comment, has not previously said when Starship will fly its first commercial mission.
The emerging business of returning payloads from space is valuable for customers such as drugmakers relying on the microgravity of space for research and production involving higher purities impossible to attain in Earth's gravity.
There are unique benefits of in-space production of other products, such as fiber optic cables, which are of higher quality when produced in microgravity on the International Space Station, NASA has said.
Nearly half Space Cargo's potential customers for its first Starfall mission are in the life sciences and biotechnology sectors, the company said.
The Starfall program joins a growing industry of capsule reentry services, where SpaceX faces rivalry from smaller startups such as California-based Varda Space, whose flagship capsule has flown 6 missions and lands in an Australian desert.
The Pentagon has seen capsule reentry missions, which must aerodynamically steer through the blazing-hot hypersonic speeds of atmospheric reentry, as useful for research and tests involving hypersonic weapons and as potential target practice for its Golden Dome missile defense program.
Gaume said flying its BentoBox with Starship and Starfall promises a fast pace of missions as SpaceX targets an unprecedented Starship flight rate once the rocket emerges from development.
BentoBox has plans to fly with other capsules, such as German startup ATMOS Space Cargo's Phoenix craft and the European Space Agency's Space Rider.
"It's really the volume and the rhythm" that makes the Starfall deal key, added Gaume, who declined to detail pricing and costs.
Starship is nearing routine flights but its development has been years behind schedule.
Its next text flight sometime this year, the 14th since 2023, will seek to put its first SpaceX-built Starlink satellites in orbit, followed by increasingly frequent in-house satellite launches that have come to dominate SpaceX's schedule.
The 2028 target for Starship's first commercial mission suggests several of the rocket's first flights throughout 2027 will serve SpaceX's Starlink satellite unit, and possibly its Starmind business of putting AI data centers in space if those satellites are ready in time.
SpaceX sází na pronájem výpočetní kapacity jako na klíč k cíli 100 miliard USD v ročním tempu výnosů do konce roku 2026. Nová hostingová dohoda má od 1. prosince 2026 přinášet asi 13 miliard USD ročně.
Key Takeaways SPCX is leaning on compute renting as a key pillar of its push toward a $100B ARR by end-2026.A new hosting deal is expected to generate about $13B in annualized revenue starting Dec. 1, 2026.SPCX faces utilization, capital-spending and customer-concentration risks as it scales AI capacity. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is increasingly leaning on the compute-renting business model as a key pillar of its drive toward a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate (ARR) by the end of 2026. The strategy allows SPCX to monetize its rapidly expanding AI infrastructure by renting compute capacity to external customers rather than relying solely on internally developed AI products. The latest boost came from a new hosting agreement expected to generate roughly $1.11 billion per month or about $13 billion on an annualized basis beginning Dec. 1, 2026.
SPCX has been building the infrastructure needed to support this compute-renting push at an aggressive pace. Nameplate compute capacity reached 1.4 gigawatts at the end of the second quarter and is expected to exceed 2 GW by year-end as management aims to deploy between 5 GW and 10 GW in 2027. The company has also been steadily converting this capacity into contracted revenues. In addition to the latest hosting deal, SPCX secured a $6.7 billion cloud-services agreement earlier this year, with the six-month revenue ramp expected to begin in October.
This strategy's success will depend on SPCX maintaining strong utilization while scaling infrastructure economically. Building large-scale AI capacity requires substantial capital spending, and the growing contribution from a limited number of large compute customers could increase revenue concentration. Moreover, some cloud-services contracts provide customers with termination flexibility, making renewals and sustained demand important for the durability of the revenue stream. Nevertheless, with AI companies continuing to seek access to scarce computing resources, SPCX's shift toward monetizing excess capacity provides another sizable growth engine.
Other Firms Deploying AI Compute-Renting Business ModelNebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) follows an AI compute-renting model through its specialized AI cloud platform, providing customers with on-demand or reserved access to high-performance NVIDIA GPU clusters for AI model training, inference and other intensive workloads. Rather than customers purchasing and maintaining costly GPU infrastructure themselves, Nebius supplies the compute capacity through its own and partner-operated data centers and monetizes that capacity through cloud usage and longer-term contracts. Its recent multi-year infrastructure agreements with large customers further support this capacity-rental model.
IREN Limited (IREN - Free Report) operates an AI compute-renting model through IREN Cloud, deploying NVIDIA GPUs in its vertically integrated data centers and providing that computing power to enterprises and AI customers for training and inference workloads. Customers can access high-performance GPU infrastructure without making the upfront investment required to build their own clusters, while IREN earns revenue by supplying contracted or cloud-based compute capacity. The model is being scaled aggressively, including through its multi-year agreement with Microsoft to provide NVIDIA GB300-based AI cloud infrastructure.
SPCX’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesSpaceX has lost 6% since its IPO against the industry’s growth of 129.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SPCX trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 23.31, above the industry tally of 8.04.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPCX’s earnings for 2026 has been raised 71.7% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
In David Einhorn's most recent letter to shareholders of his hedge fund, Greenlight Capital, he specifically called out Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.04%), which went public last quarter.
The initial public offering (IPO) was historic for its size, and Einhorn notes that SpaceX is still making history, citing key analyst reports that have a massive impact on financial markets. But that history isn't necessarily a good thing for SpaceX investors, and it could have broader implications for the market in general.
SpaceX has the capacity to shatter records Einhorn didn't pull any punches when it came to his thoughts on SpaceX's valuation. He believes the $1.75 trillion that the IPO underwriters assigned to SpaceX is far too much. He failed to grasp the extraordinarily high level of confidence investors have in the company's long-term prospects, despite the significant hurdles it must overcome to realize its potential.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
But what he sees as even more questionable is how the credit-rating agencies view SpaceX and its potential debt. Einhorn wrote:
According to Moody's, SPCX has the capacity to become one of the largest non-financial investment-grade borrowers, even though it isn't expected to be cash flow positive for years. We can't find any other examples of investment-grade ratings being awarded to a company with a multiyear forecast of negative free cash flow and no history of generating free cash flow.
SpaceX's ability to raise capital by selling bonds at relatively low yields is key to its success. Even some of the most bullish analysts on Wall Street don't expect the company to produce positive free cash flow anytime soon. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a $300 price target on the stock, indicating it could more than double from its current price. Even so, he doesn't see the business generating positive free cash flow until 2035, burning an average of $84 billion per year before then.
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That means there's a tremendous amount of risk investing in SpaceX. The cost of capital is a necessary concern that may not be fully accounted for in investors' outlooks. A reduction in SpaceX's credit rating, or even the continued march higher in interest rates, could have a severe negative impact on its finances. Alternatively, using equity to fund capital expenditures would further dilute existing shareholders.
Just add it to the list of risks for SpaceX stock Einhorn argues that the credit risk of SpaceX is just one of many risks that investors are not properly accounting for. He listed a bevy of potential business endeavors for SpaceX to pursue over the long run but added, "We doubt that the discounted value of those possibilities, using an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate, would lead to a number that approaches SPCX's market capitalization."
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran puts SpaceX's current valuation well above the 90th percentile of his model, which is already arguably very optimistic about the growth and profitability of SpaceX's various segments.
Over the long run, SpaceX's stock price will closely reflect its ability to deliver positive cash returns and earnings. The investment time horizon may be much longer for SpaceX than for a typical company, but that only increases uncertainty about the company's actual value. In such cases, investors should demand a wider margin of safety relative to their best estimate of intrinsic value. And based on the way the stock is trading, it doesn't appear to have much, if any, margin of safety.
That sort of behavior is worrisome to Einhorn. He finished his discussion of SpaceX with a warning: "Our sense is that this IPO is something we might look back on as a marker that a major speculative top is near."
While there may be significant speculation in some corners of the market, the underlying fundamentals of the current stock market still look fairly strong. It's not time to panic on the whole market, in my opinion, but investors may want to carefully consider what's reasonable for SpaceX.
SpaceX může ve 4. čtvrtletí oslabit kvůli konci lockupu v prosinci a dalšímu tlaku po slabších výsledcích za 3. čtvrtletí. Firma má vysoké ocenění a stále pálí hotovost.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.04%) had a strong positive impact on space stocks when it debuted through an initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. SpaceX shares were priced at $135 per share for the IPO, but the stock opened that day to the public at $150. It reached an intraday high of $176.52 before closing at $160.95.
Overall, though, the stock is down more than 7% this year, unless you were fortunate enough to buy it at its IPO price. Here are three reasons why the stock could crash in the fourth quarter and one reason why it won't.
Image source: Getty Images.
The lockup period ends in the fourth quarter SpaceX's IPO was structured with a staggered insider unlock schedule tied to time-based milestones, rather than the single lockup expiry used by many new stocks. That structure replaces the 180-day cliff with a series of dated releases, which keeps supply questions in front of investors for months rather than compressing them into a single expiration day. However, the 180-day lockup period will expire for all insider investors, except for CEO Elon Musk and a few select shareholders, in early December.
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A deluge of people unloading their SpaceX shares could easily drive down the price and set off a selling frenzy. We already saw a little bit of that on Sept. 9, when some investors were able to sell in the 90-calendar-day unlock milestone. Though that period represented only 7% of the stock's shares, the price dropped from a midday high of $153 to close at $147.55.
Poor third-quarter earnings could spur investors to sell SpaceX is expected to report third-quarter earnings in early November. In the second-quarter earnings release, the company reported revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year. However, it also had a net loss of $541 million and spent $28.5 billion on capital expenditures over the first six months, up 309% from the same period last year. The market didn't react well to those earnings. The stock, after closing at $125.33 on Aug. 4, just before the earnings announcement, opened at $108.27 on Aug. 5. It's easy to see how another less-than-spectacular third quarter could further drop the stock.
Despite strong top-line revenue from Starlink and launch services, SpaceX's aggressive expansion, particularly its massive infrastructure investments in Starship development and artificial intelligence (AI)/SpaceXAI compute clusters, has led to massive cash burn. The company posted a negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion for 2025 and continued significant burn through early 2026 as capital expenditures surged.
If credit conditions tighten or fourth-quarter capex spending estimates jump higher, Wall Street could reprice the stock downward to reflect its heavily delayed path to positive free cash flow.
SpaceX's valuation may come back down to earth Because of Musk's popularity, the stock is trading at a high multiple. Since it isn't generating a profit yet, the best valuation indicator to use is its trailing price-to-sales ratio, which is 94.8. That's a massive premium to conventional defense, aerospace, and tech peers and leaves SpaceX little room for error. Any technical setback, delay in commercial Starship operations, slowdown in Starlink subscriber growth, or sudden volatility in high-priced cloud compute contracts, such as AI cluster hosting deals, could trigger a rapid valuation compression in the fourth quarter.
However, SpaceX has a huge integrated moat For long-term investors, buying SpaceX is less a bet on aerospace launch and more an allocation to a vertically integrated global utility and compute infrastructure platform. The company has a near monopoly in several categories. Its Falcon 9 medium-lift rocket has a huge share of the global commercial market, with 684 missions. Its Dragon ship is the only operational U.S. spacecraft to ferry crews to and from the International Space Station. Its Starlink service is a global internet network with 6,750 satellites in orbit, serving more than 10 million customers across 160 markets.
Its Starship program, though still experimental, is scheduled for its 14th test flight, and represents the next step in launch scale and hardware use for the next decade.
SpaceX controls both rockets and satellites, and it is positioned to capture entirely new markets in defense and direct-to-cell connectivity, as well as to put data centers into space before peers can get off the ground.
Many investors place their faith in Musk Investors view Musk through his ability to build category-defining, megacap companies, most notably Tesla, from early-stage concepts. Because Musk has repeatedly proven that he can scale complex engineering businesses past traditional industry limitations, institutional investors routinely apply a premium to his ventures compared to peers.
The market is judging the stock based on what it could do years from now, and while that's risky, it has paid off for early Tesla investors. They are betting that SpaceX's near-monopolies in rocket reusability and low Earth orbit will remain intact, and the company's first-mover advantage will continue to deliver record revenue.
Británie jako první země mimo USA veřejně potvrdila využívání Starshield od SpaceX. Firma už má přes 6 miliard USD ve víceletých kontraktech americké vlády a Space Force.
Britain just went on the record as the first foreign government to confirm it uses SpaceX's classified military satellite network, and that admission quietly unlocks a question every defense ministry has been watching: who signs the next contract?
Britain’s Ministry of Defence just became the first government outside the United States to publicly confirm it uses Starshield, the military variant of Starlink built by SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction). Reuters reported the disclosure on September 10, noting UK spending of nearly $40 million on the company’s satellite services.
That admission matters because Starshield’s customer roster, payloads and missions remain officially undisclosed, even though the program itself is not secret. For SpaceX investors, the news reframes a question the market has circled since the IPO: can Starshield become a second lucrative network business alongside Starlink? The company has already booked over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government Starshield contracts from Space Force for LEO-based communications and sensing, and management sounded openly bullish on government demand on the August 4 earnings call.
What Britain’s Admission Reveals The UK deployment is small in dollar terms but operational. The capped Starshield service tier in Britain includes five terabytes of monthly data, with per-terminal hardware starting at £4,000. Those price points sit well above consumer Starlink economics.
A five-terabyte allowance is a working military tier for a forward unit or a headquarters node, with unlimited plans above it for streaming sensor feeds or persistent video. The premium reflects encrypted routing, priority access and sovereign controls that consumer broadband never touches.
Britain’s participation matters more for validating the export story than for moving SpaceX’s revenue line. Allied defense ministries watch each other, and the UK going on the record gives cover to the next buyer.
Starshield’s existence is public and officially acknowledged. What stays classified is the roster of customers, payloads, and missions the constellation actually supports, and that distinction matters when you read the headlines.
Where the $6 Billion Actually Comes From The disclosed Starshield awards are overwhelmingly American, with two United States Space Force satellite programs behind most of them.
Gwynne Shotwell told analysts on the second-quarter call:
“On the government side, we won more than $6 billion in U.S. contracts in Q2, supporting major Space Force programs that offer our nation mission-critical communications and sensing capabilities, and we see even more room for growth in this sector in this coming year.”
Enterprise & Government revenue reached $1.806 billion in the quarter, up 108% YoY, driven by airline partnerships and Starshield. Management called that line “a durable source of revenue, contributing to strong segment margins overall.”
The federal appetite behind these awards is real. The FY 2027 Space Force request includes $9.8 billion in Satellite Communication and $10.8 billion in Space-Based Sensing and Targeting, the exact phenomenologies Starshield is built to serve.
Constraints on the Second Network Story Starshield is small next to Starlink today. Starlink ended the quarter with 12.0 million subscribers and Connectivity revenue of $4.29 billion, +66% YoY, dwarfing the government line.
Three constraints deserve serious weight. Political dependence on Elon Musk as a single decision-maker is one, and allied capitals have said as much publicly, which is why European sovereign-constellation programs exist.
Government customer concentration is the second. Budgets shift, and the FY 2027 request has to survive Congress before it becomes contracted revenue.
Execution is the third. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion in capex in the quarter, with $15.83 billion directed to AI compute infrastructure, while posting a $541 million net loss. Government revenue has to scale into that capital base rather than merely grow alongside it.
Is SPCX Stock a Buy? At $148.18 as of September 10, SPCX trades above both its 50-day moving average of $135.65 and its 200-day moving average of $141.97, with a forward PE of 204x and a price-to-sales ratio of 84x.
The Street is broadly constructive: 6 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 5 Hold, 2 Sell, with a target of $214.57.
Starshield’s export path is credible, and the Space Force baseline gives the segment a real floor that pure-play defense primes cannot match on timeline or price. Starship losses and AI capex intensity remain unaddressed by that segment.
I’d call it a Hold. The government network story is real and growing, but the valuation already discounts much of it, and the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition plus the AI capex profile add execution risk that is hard to justify at this price.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The Exploration Company získala od ESA zakázku za 760 milionů eur na první evropskou komerční nákladní kapsli k ISS. Přišla jen několik dní po uzavření financování za 450 milionů dolarů.
A five-year-old European startup just pulled off a double that no company on the continent has managed before, and the ambition behind it points directly at the rocket architecture SpaceX bet everything on with Starship.
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The European Space Agency on Friday awarded The Exploration Company a €760 million contract to build and fly Europe’s first commercial cargo capsule to the International Space Station, signed at the International Space Summit in Paris. ESA describes it as its first and largest capsule transportation service contract awarded to a European company in open competition. The contract covers an initial demonstration mission plus two optional follow-on flights.
The award follows the Munich-based startup’s $450 million funding round that closed days earlier, the largest ever raised by a European space tech company. The raise set the table. The contract is the payoff.
Founder and CEO Helene Huby framed the significance: “This is more than a contract award: it reflects a shift in how we build space technology in Europe. We started the development of Nyx with private funding only, and we are now at a technical maturity level where ESA and Member States’ public funding can support us massively, as anchor clients, to help us finalise the vehicle. It is also the first time in Europe that a five-year-old space startup wins a contract worth hundreds of millions of euros in open competition.”
ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher added: “Today’s agreement with The Exploration Company shows how ESA can act as an anchor customer, strengthening Europe’s commercial space sector and turning ambition into reality.”
Where the $450 Million Goes Huby has been direct about the deployment of the record European raise: “The majority of this funding is going to accelerate the biggest rocket engine ever developed in Europe, full flow staged combustion, so the most efficient rocket engine cycle in the world.”
Full-flow staged combustion is the same architecture SpaceX chose for its Raptor engine powering Starship. It routes all propellant through preburners before the main chamber, extracting more energy from every kilogram of fuel. It also happens to be the most capital-intensive rocket cycle to develop, which is why Huby was blunt about the funding gap:
“It’s not completely enough because this kind of rocket engine cost actually a lot of money to develop, but it’s more than two thirds of what we need to develop this rocket engine.” The engine program is called Storm.
Demand Book: $1B in Europe, $1B in the US Helene Huby said the company has already booked substantial commercial demand: “We’ve signed now about 1,000,000,000 in Europe, 1,000,000,000 in United States, and now we need to deliver a lot of capsule.” That is roughly one billion in Europe and one billion in the United States, with pre-booking agreements from commercial space station operators Axiom, Starlab and Vast.
Nyx, Briefly Nyx is a reusable capsule designed to launch on any heavy-lift rocket, dock autonomously with a space station, and return cargo to Earth. It uses in-house carbon-based thermal protection and proprietary guidance, navigation and flight software. Development runs across Munich, Bordeaux and Turin with expansion into the United States and the UAE. Nyx is in ISS certification with NASA. Separately, The Exploration Company signed a deal with Arianespace to launch the first Nyx capsule on an Ariane 6 rocket from Europe’s spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Full details are available at esa.int.
Investing Angle for SPCX Holders The incumbent is publicly traded. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) last changed hands at $149.50, up 0.89% in the premarket session. Over the past month, SPCX has advanced 12.16%, and sits 7.12% below its level three months ago. The company carries a market cap of roughly $1.14 trillion and posted Q2 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, with its Space segment generating $962 million including $648 million in launch services. See the 8-K filing on SEC.gov for full quarterly disclosures.
The Exploration Company is privately held, so direct exposure is unavailable to public-market investors. It has yet to fly a capsule to the ISS. Its lead customer is a government agency acting as anchor client. SpaceX already operates the cargo and crew services this startup is working toward, and its Starlink Consumer business alone grew 44% year over year last quarter. The realistic read: this is a credible, state-backed effort to end European dependence on a single US launch provider over the next decade. Near-term SpaceX revenue is unlikely to feel it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
U SpaceX je klíčovým číslem počet aktivních předplatitelů služby Starlink; ve druhém čtvrtletí se zdvojnásobil na 12,0 milionu. Tržby dosáhly 7,81 miliardy USD a překonaly odhady o 14,59 %.
SpaceX has carved out a dominant position in launch, satellite internet, and AI, but bulls at $148 are betting everything on a single number that could either justify a sky-high multiple or expose the entire thesis as wishful thinking.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) at $148.18 looks attractive to bulls, and the single number that will validate or break that thesis is Starlink’s active subscriber count. Post-IPO volatility has left shares well below the 52-week high of $225.64, giving investors a workable entry if consumer momentum holds.
SpaceX is three businesses in one shell. Launch services and Starship sit inside Space, Starlink and Starshield inside Connectivity, and Grok plus cloud infrastructure inside AI. Connectivity is the profit engine, generating $4.3 billion in Q2 revenue and $1.7 billion in segment operating income.
What brought the stock to $148 was the Q2 report. Revenue of $7.81 billion beat estimates by 14.59%, and Starlink subscribers doubled year-over-year to 12.0 million. Shares have climbed 11.17% in the past month.
Why Starlink Turns the Bull Thesis Into Math The bull case starts with a subscriber curve nobody else can match. Management added more than 1.7 million consumer subscribers in Q2, its best quarter ever, after 1.4 million in Q1. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108% year-over-year, and Gwynne Shotwell said that segment could ultimately “reach a scale at least comparable but likely exceed our consumer business.”
V3 satellites arrive next year. Elon Musk framed the monetization math bluntly: “Even if our monetization per bit drops by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.” Analysts see the setup, with 80% bullish ratings and a consensus target of $214.57.
Why the Capex Math Terrifies the Bear Camp Bears see a company burning capital at a rate no subscriber curve can outrun. Capex hit $18.37 billion in Q2 with $15.8 billion going to AI compute, while the company printed an operating loss of $143 million and a net loss of $541 million.
ARPU tells the second scary story. It slid from $85 to $66 year-over-year as international mix broadened, and management warned geographic expansion “may drive down blended ARPU over time.” Add the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition, a price-to-sales ratio of 84, and a forward P/E of 204, and any subscriber miss leaves the multiple naked.
Why Patience Has a Real Case Too Waiting one quarter costs little. Shares trade above the 200-day moving average of $141.97 and the 50-day of $135.65, but the internal price model has walked its predicted price down from $261.62 in mid-July to $241.22 in early September, suggesting momentum is cooling even as the rating stays Buy.
Holding through one more report gives visibility on Cursor integration, Starship V3 economics, and whether the critical mass of roughly 1,000 V3 satellites lands on management’s second-quarter 2027 timeline.
What the Numbers Actually Say Shares trade at $148.18 against an analyst consensus target of $214.57, implying roughly 57% upside. Targets are one data point, not a guarantee. Coverage spans 35 analysts:
Strong Buy: 6 Buy: 22 Hold: 5 Sell: 2 SPCX is down 1.04% over the past week. In the thirty days after the Q2 report, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) moved roughly 0.05% while SPCX rallied about 36.65%, a divergence driven entirely by the subscriber report.
Why $148 Looks Compelling, With One Number to Watch At $148, the bull case for SpaceX rests on one metric. Here is why.
The path to appreciation runs through one line item: net Starlink consumer additions per quarter. Q2 delivered 1.7 million, a sequential step up from 1.4 million. If Q3 prints another sequential increase with ARPU steady at $66, Connectivity alone can defend the current market cap while AI and Starship remain optionality.
Invalidation is equally clean. If quarterly additions slip below 1.4 million or ARPU falls under $60 without a matching enterprise offset, the stock loses the one story holding up an EV/EBITDA of 519. Cursor closing in Q3, V3 crossing critical mass in Q2 2027, and EchoStar spectrum integration are the checkpoints.
Risk-reward at this price favors owners because subscriber momentum is accelerating, enterprise is compounding at triple digits, and the analyst-implied upside remains sizable. Track the subscriber number every quarter. Everything else is noise around that signal.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
SpaceX uzavřela další compute dohodu, která od 1. prosince přidá asi 1,11 miliardy USD měsíčně a přes 13 miliard USD ročních opakovaných tržeb. CFO Bret Johnsen řekl, že firma má větší jistotu v cíli 100 miliard USD ARR do konce roku.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen says the company has closed another compute agreement that would help the Elon Musk-led space giant reach its intended $100 billion ARR target by year-end.
$1 billion Starting in DecemberDuring Goldman Sachs Group Inc.‘s (NYSE:GS) Communacopia and Technology Conference on Thursday, Johnsen touted the new compute deal. “We closed another hosting deal, and that translates into about $1.11 billion a month starting December 1st of this year,” Johnsen said.
He added that the figure adds over $13 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) for SpaceX as it charts a path to hitting $100 billion in ARR for SpaceX. “We have even more conviction now about that $100 billion ARR target by the end of this year,” he added.
Johnsen did not provide additional details about the agreement, nor did he say who SpaceX had entered into a compute agreement with.
$10 Trillion ValuationX Prize Foundation‘s Peter Diamandis, following SpaceX’s first-ever earnings call since going public, said that he saw the commercial spaceflight giant reaching a valuation of $10 trillion, citing Musk’s efforts to build a “civilizational” level of infrastructure with SpaceX.
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SpaceX has compute agreements in place with Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Anthropic. Musk also said that the company had a non-zero chance of reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030.
Starlink’s New Router, Starbase LouisianaSpaceX also unveiled the fourth-generation Starlink router, touting faster peak speeds, as well as better connectivity in congested areas, water resistance and Wi-Fi 7 technology. SpaceX also said that the company will provide Starlink connectivity to residents around SpaceX’s upcoming Starbase Louisiana at half price.
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Price Action: SPCX shares were up 0.70% to $149.22 during overnight trading on Thursday.
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SpaceX v Texasu podala žalobu, aby zablokovala zveřejnění záznamů o daňových úlevách pro svůj projekt Terafab poblíž Houstonu. Firma tvrdí, že obsahují důvěrné informace o její vyjednávací strategii.
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A rendering of a SpaceX Terafab semiconductor factory in Grimes County, Texas. Musk's company filed a lawsuit this week to block the release of records concerning the facility's tax abatement. SpaceX Americans say they want transparency from AI companies.
Someone tell Elon Musk.
SpaceX filed a lawsuit in Texas this week to block the release of records related to tax breaks it received for Terafab, the 100-million-square-foot semiconductor factory it is building near Houston.
The records, which Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office said in July should be released, include SpaceX's tax-abatement application and negotiations between SpaceX and Grimes County officials related to it.
The lawsuit comes as hyperscale data centers and other large AI projects face nationwide backlash from Americans, many of whom are demanding greater transparency from the tech companies building the centers in their communities.
What we learned from the Tesla 'company update'
Public Citizen, a progressive think tank, published a report in July detailing what it described as extensive use of non-disclosure agreements between local officials and data center developers.
"These secrecy agreements are shutting the public out of decisions that could shape their rates for decades," the report said.
In a recent interview with ABC News, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said data center developers aren't gaining local residents' support before pursuing projects.
Other leading tech companies, like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Meta, are trumpeting transparency as they race to build the centers they require to power AI growth.
In a March blog post, Microsoft pledged to stop using nondisclosure agreements with local governments "as the next step in our work to deliver that transparency."
SpaceX seems to be taking a different approach.
The company said in the suit that the records related to tax breaks contain "confidential information," and that releasing them "would reveal SpaceX's negotiating strategy, concessions, and limits to every jurisdiction, competitor, and counterparty with which SpaceX negotiates in the future."
The Terafab project is a joint venture with Tesla and Intel. Musk has said that, once online, it could vastly increase the global supply of semiconductor chips, which are crucial for both SpaceX's plans for AI data centers and Tesla's rollout of autonomous robotaxis and humanoid robots.
The records were originally requested by Marie Egyed and Vanessa Burzynski, two residents of Grimes County. Paxton's office said in July that records concerning Terafab's tax break and certain email chains did not qualify for exemptions that would block their release.
SpaceX agreed to pay the county $20 million every year, or about 78% of what it would have paid in property taxes, SpaceX attorney Bucky Brannen told residents at a county meeting in August.
Egyed is a member of the Grimes County Citizens for Responsible Development, a group that has opposed Terafab's development. In a text message, she said SpaceX's suit to block the tax abatement records "certainly makes you want to know what's in them."
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday morning.
Though SpaceX is a private company, records sought by Egyed are in possession of Grimes County, thereby making them subject to the Texas Public Information Act.
A judge has not yet ruled on the matter.
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Truman Dickerson You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Truman Dickerson is the Weekend News Fellow at Business Insider, based in New York City. He covers trending tech and business news. He previously reported for The Boston Globe's Express Desk. He graduated from Boston University, where he served as editor in chief of The Daily Free Press, BU's student-run newspaper.Contact him at [email protected]
Analytik Wells Fargo tvrdí, že SpaceX sice zatlačí na americké operátory, ale těžit mohou tower REITy a kabelové firmy. FCC navíc schválila převzetí 65 MHz spektra EchoStaru.
A Wells Fargo analyst says SpaceX's wireless push will hurt carriers far less than investors fear, and the real beneficiaries may surprise anyone who assumed satellite and towers compete rather than cooperate.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall used a CNBC segment on September 8 to reframe SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) wireless push. He argues that satellite-plus-spectrum architecture needs less ground infrastructure than a traditional fourth carrier, so the pain falls on incumbent telcos while tower REITs and cable operators quietly collect rent on whatever pieces SpaceX still has to lease.
Cahall told CNBC: “Telco just facing another competitor, a three player market going to a much smaller fourth player. That’s still a net negative for sure.”
The FCC just cleared SpaceX to absorb 65 MHz of EchoStar’s U.S. spectrum, and Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million as of Q2 2026. That makes the question urgent for anyone holding AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC), Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) or Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA).
What Cahall Said About the Fourth-Carrier Debate Cahall broke from the standard fourth-carrier framing. He said, “We don’t think it’s because the economics of adding a fourth player to the U.S. wireless market is so compelling. It’s that there are ulterior long term technology motives.”
Those motives sit in plain view. SpaceX’s Q2 connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year.
The EchoStar (NASDAQ:ECHO) transfer gives SpaceX a spectrum foundation it could not have assembled in time at auction. Management plans to integrate the 65 MHz “later next year” and build terrestrial hardware alongside the constellation.
Damage to carriers shows up first in pricing and margin pressure, with wholesale subscriber loss a slower, secondary risk. That matches what Verizon CEO Dan Schulman is telling investors.
Schulman said Verizon is “purposely shifting our mix towards durable recurring service revenues and away from low margin, highly promotional activity.” Carriers do that when they expect pricing to tighten.
Why the Satellite Architecture Changes the Math Cahall put the mechanics simply: “They don’t need nearly the same amount of spectrum, the same amount of tower and signal projection. They have a big and growing satellite constellation.”
Spectrum is expensive because supply is fixed and FCC auctions clear for tens of billions of dollars. An MVNO, or mobile virtual network operator, rents capacity on somebody else’s network rather than buying spectrum and towers of its own, and Wi-Fi offload dumps phone traffic onto fixed broadband so cellular capacity stays free.
SpaceX itself described a network of “little femtocells” and rooftop Starlink dishes handling terrestrial handoffs. That is capital-light compared to macro-tower densification.
The thesis has a real hole. If SpaceX routes around U.S. towers entirely with its own rooftop equipment, the tower leasing bump never lands.
Crown Castle, asked directly on its Q2 call, would say only that its sites offer “space, power, backhaul” and would welcome satellite operators as tenants. No signed agreement exists yet.
Who Collects the Checks If He’s Right Cahall gave the shopping list: “There would require towers. It would require a Wi-Fi offload MVNO with cable. So those could be two of the potential winners from a sector perspective.”
Tower REITs get paid regardless of which carrier wins the customer. American Tower yields about 3.93% with FY26 AFFO guided to $11.00 to $11.17 per share.
Crown Castle is the purer bet post-fiber divestiture, yielding around 5.5%, though AT&T contributes 28% of site rental revenue with a $774 million renewal cycle in 2028. SBA is the international grower, with international site leasing up 30.5% in Q2.
On the cable side, Charter’s Spectrum Mobile added 406,000 lines with mobile service revenue up 18.9% year over year to $1.095 billion. Comcast crossed 10 million wireless lines and offloads roughly 90% of traffic onto Wi-Fi.
The carriers face the opposite trend. Verizon’s fixed wireless net additions fell 30.6% year over year, the first visible mark of satellite broadband encroachment.
Is SPCX Stock a Buy? Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, with $3.54 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a $93.5 billion cash position. The stock trades at roughly 85 times trailing sales.
Among incumbents, T-Mobile is most exposed because its Direct-to-Cell partnership loses differentiation once SpaceX controls its own spectrum. TMUS shares are down 23.18% over the past year.
AT&T’s satellite-as-corner-case posture looks defensible, and CEO John Stankey argued the company can “get 98% of the traffic” without a wholesale satellite partner. Verizon’s 29.99% year-to-date rally already prices in the fiber pivot.
My read: infrastructure owners look like the cleaner exposure to this thesis, and Crown Castle offers the most direct tower exposure at a yield the carriers cannot match. SPCX carries the growth optionality for those comfortable with a triple-digit sales multiple, while CCI leans income-oriented at a materially lower valuation.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
SpaceX klesá o 5 % poté, co se otevřelo 90denní okno pro uvolnění akcií insiderů; podle prospektu IPO jde až o potenciální prodej za 47,2 miliardy USD. Slábnou i AST SpaceMobile a Rocket Lab.
A multi-billion-dollar insider unlock window just opened at the newly public space giant, and the shockwave is spreading across the entire sector. Here is what the next few trading sessions will reveal about whether insiders plan to cash out or…
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is down 5% to $146.35 in midday trading Wednesday as the company’s 90-calendar-day insider share unlock milestone comes due. The tranche of early-release-eligible shares now becoming sellable represents up to $47.2 billion in potential insider selling pressure, per SpaceX’s own IPO prospectus. It’s a heavy overhang for a stock that floated only a small slice of itself in June and has traded with elevated volatility ever since.
The pressure is bleeding into the broader space complex. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is off 3% on the session, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.5%. That gap places the day’s damage squarely on satellite and launch names, framing this as a corner-of-the-market supply event rather than a systemic risk-off flush across large caps.
The Unlock Milestone Explained SpaceX’s IPO prospectus set out a staggered, accelerated insider unlock schedule tied to time-based milestones following the company’s June debut, rather than the single lockup expiry most newly public companies use. That structure replaces the 180-day cliff with a series of dated releases, which keeps supply questions in front of investors for months rather than compressing them into a single expiration day.
The IPO floated only a small fraction of shares outstanding, so each scheduled unlock is disproportionately large relative to the stock that actually trades every day. SpaceX founder Elon Musk’s own stake remains locked for roughly a year from the IPO and sits outside today’s tranche. That arithmetic is the real reason today’s release carries more weight than a typical lockup expiry at a similarly sized large cap, where the float is already broad enough to absorb concentrated selling.
Eligibility to sell doesn’t guarantee that insiders will sell, and Form 4 filings over the next several sessions will show how much of the eligible stock is actually reaching the market. The headline unlock figure sets a ceiling on possible supply, and historical patterns at other high-profile IPOs suggest realized selling typically comes in well below the theoretical maximum. Diversified holders often stagger sales to avoid moving the price against themselves, which further softens the practical impact of a scheduled release.
Peers Feel the Ripple Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 4% to $63.18, giving back part of a sharp run earlier this month that followed a fresh sell-side buy call. Shares are up 55% over the past year even after today’s slide. The move looks like sympathy selling rather than a company-specific development, since AST SpaceMobile hasn’t put out a release into today’s session.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 3% to $63.92, matching the sector-wide drift. Still, shares of RKLB are up 34% over the past year on the strength of a record backlog and pending acquisitions in satellite communications. Both names sit inside the Procure Space ETF, which is why a scheduled event at the sector’s flagship listed name drags them along on the session.
What to Watch Investors can watch for whether today’s supply pressure spills into Thursday’s session or fades as insiders demonstrate restraint. Volume patterns in SpaceX shares over the next several sessions could offer the first hard read on how much of the eligible stock is actually reaching the market versus how much simply remains legally available for sale. Option-market skew in the space names could also flag whether hedgers are pricing in a follow-through move rather than a one-day fade.
The next dated event is the following unlock milestone on SpaceX’s schedule, and the pattern set this week could shape how the rest of the sector trades into it. A risk-off tone in oil and interest rates is adding a mild secondary headwind on the same session, but the scheduled unlock remains the dated cause of today’s move rather than any macro shift or change in fundamentals.
Your position sizing in space names should reflect that scheduled supply calendar, not just launch cadence or backlog growth at individual companies. With Musk’s own shares locked for months longer, the ownership signal from the founder remains unchanged, and today’s action reflects mechanics rather than a change in the business at SpaceX or its listed peers. That framing keeps the day’s slide in perspective as a mechanical repricing rather than a signal about the growth trajectory of the space economy.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie EchoStar vzrostly o 4,2 % poté, co UBS obnovila pokrytí s doporučením Buy a cílovou cenou 150 USD. UBS uvádí, že 2% podíl ve SpaceX činí akcii podhodnocenou.
EchoStar (NASDAQ:ECHO) shares got a boost Tuesday after UBS resumed coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, sending the stock up 4.2%.
The UBS upgrade reflects EchoStar's transformation from wireless operator to investment vehicle, following the company's sale of 75-80% of its spectrum portfolio for roughly $43 billion.EchoStar is set to hold a 2% stake in SpaceX, equal to about 262 million shares, once its pending spectrum transaction closes. The deal is expected to close in November 2027 and has already received FCC approval. UBS valued that stake at roughly $39 billion, or $110 per EchoStar share, based on the current SpaceX stock price, and at $55 billion, or $156 per share, using the firm's $210 SpaceX price target.
UBS noted EchoStar was granted the SpaceX shares at a roughly $11 billion valuation before SpaceX's IPO.
The firm valued EchoStar's remaining spectrum holdings at approximately $11 billion based on recent transaction precedents.
UBS said EchoStar's remaining AWS-3 holdings are the most valuable of the group given their compatibility with existing carrier infrastructure, while its 700 MHz E-Block holdings align most closely with spectrum held by AT&T and its CBRS holdings align with spectrum held by Verizon and cable operators.
Analysts believe EchoStar's TV and Hughes businesses are worth $6 billion combined (though they carry $15 billion in debt), while its Boost wireless business is worth about $2 billion.
UBS said cash proceeds of approximately $31.5 billion from EchoStar's spectrum deals with AT&T and SpaceX, before taxes, will likely be used to repay debt and fund potential future investments in the telecom, aerospace and defense industries.
When most people hear Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.73%), they probably picture a rocket blasting into space.
That's understandable. Rockets are how SpaceX became famous. But investors who think SpaceX is simply a rocket company are missing the bigger picture, since the company is increasingly becoming a collection of businesses that reinforce one another.
And I think investors should think about it in three layers.
Image source: Getty Images.
Starlink is the economic foundation The first layer is Starlink.
Starlink provides internet connectivity through a growing constellation of satellites orbiting Earth. Unlike Starship or some of SpaceX's more ambitious projects, it's no longer a promise about the future.
It's a real business with millions of paying customers. Starlink ended the second quarter with approximately 12 million subscribers, double the number from a year earlier. Connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion, while operating income reached roughly $1.7 billion.
That's significant. Starlink is increasingly becoming the financial engine that allows SpaceX to pursue much larger opportunities.
And the market opportunity extends well beyond households. Starlink is expanding into aviation, maritime, enterprise, government, and mobile connectivity. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108% year over year in the latest quarter, accounting for 42% of total revenue.
If Starlink can continue to scale profitably, it will generate even more profits to fund SpaceX's other ambitious projects.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) could become the next massive growth engine The second layer is much newer: artificial intelligence (AI).
SpaceX's AI-related revenue jumped 247% year over year to $2.6 billion in the second quarter. The company is rapidly building computing infrastructure to serve demand for AI workloads.
That growth is remarkable. But here's where investors need to look beyond the headline. SpaceX spent approximately $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure during the quarter. That's roughly 6 times the segment's quarterly revenue.
So the important question isn't simply whether AI revenue is growing quickly. It's whether SpaceX can earn attractive returns on the enormous amount of capital it is investing. If it can, the opportunity could be huge.
SpaceX has already demonstrated that it can build infrastructure at a scale few companies can match. Its ability to combine that infrastructure with access to capital, engineering talent, and its own launch capabilities could give it an unusual competitive position.
Still, AI is the exciting new part of the SpaceX story, so it's not quite as proven a business as Starlink. Investors should closely monitor the development of this business and how it complements Starlink's existing offerings.
Rockets are the infrastructure This is the part of SpaceX that investors could easily misunderstand. The rocket business isn't necessarily the destination. It's the transportation infrastructure that allows the rest of the ecosystem to exist.
Think of it this way. Falcon 9 already gives SpaceX a highly successful launch platform. But the newer Starship is designed to change the economics of space much more dramatically.
Starship is SpaceX's next-generation reusable rocket system. The company intends for both the spacecraft and its booster to be rapidly reusable, while carrying substantially more payload than Falcon 9.
SpaceX believes Starship could eventually increase payload capacity dramatically and reduce launch costs by roughly an order of magnitude. If that happens, the implications go far beyond launching rockets.
SpaceX could deploy more Starlink satellites. It could build larger satellite networks. It could support more commercial and government missions. And it could potentially put large amounts of computing infrastructure into orbit.
That last possibility is particularly interesting.
SpaceX is already pursuing orbital AI infrastructure and has announced plans for a $100 billion Starbase Louisiana complex intended to support Starship and future AI satellite operations. That's a remarkable investment in infrastructure for something that doesn't yet exist at a meaningful commercial scale.
But it reveals how SpaceX thinks about the future. Starship isn't merely a bigger rocket. It could be the platform that makes SpaceX's next generation of businesses economically possible.
Putting the SpaceX flywheel together Put the pieces together, and the investment thesis for SpaceX becomes much more interesting.
Starlink generates recurring revenue and profits. Those profits can help fund new infrastructure like Starship. Starship could eventually make launches dramatically cheaper. Cheaper launches could allow SpaceX to deploy more satellites, more quickly. More satellites increase Starlink's capacity.
At the same time, growing demand for AI creates another enormous market for computing infrastructure. And if SpaceX can eventually deploy some of that infrastructure in space, it could open an entirely new market.
Each business potentially makes the others more valuable. And that's the SpaceX story.
In short, investors aren't simply buying rockets. They're buying a company attempting to control multiple layers of the infrastructure connecting Earth, satellites, communications, and computing.
Few companies on the planet are positioned to do that.
Analysts still see substantial upside, but another large share unlock could test the stock this week. Summary
About 319 million additional shares become eligible for sale Sept. 9
SpaceX (SPCX, Financials) has rebounded since its August lows. And now another test. Even after bouncing back to around $147, the stock is still down about 34% from its high of $225.64 in June. Wall Street hasn't abandoned it.
Bernstein has a $248 goal while Oppenheimer recently upped its price target to $280. Both companies see tremendous upside if SpaceX can continue to grow Starlink, improve Starship economics and develop its newer AI opportunities.
But there's something more immediate for investors to look at. Another 319 million shares will become eligible for sale starting Sept. 9. A further tranche of 59 million shares arrives on Sept. 10. That doesn't mean all those shares will be sold.
But it does imply more stock can get into the market. And that incremental supply matters after a tumultuous first few months as a public firm.
The bullish argument for SpaceX is straightforward. It dominates commercial launch. Starlink keeps growing. And AI infrastructure is increasingly seen as another potential growth engine by experts.
Valuation is the tougher question. Investors are paying for a lot of future success already. Over $2 trillion worth. That basic fact makes Sept. 9 crucial.
SpaceX needs purchasers that buy into the long-term story, but not only that. They may also require enough of them to absorb a lot more of the available supplies.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
SpaceX se krátce vrátila na tržní kapitalizaci 2 biliony USD díky optimismu kolem Starlinku, startů a expanze do AI. Firma ale čelí vysokým kapitálovým nárokům, konkurenci a regulační nejistotě.
Key Takeaways SPCX briefly regained a $2 trillion valuation amid optimism over Starlink, launches and AI expansion.Starlink's expansion boosts recurring revenues, while vertical integration lowers satellite launch costs.SpaceX faces high capital needs, execution risks, rising competition and regulatory uncertainty. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) has briefly regained the coveted $2 trillion market capitalization mark, reflecting renewed investor optimism surrounding its expanding Starlink business, unmatched launch capabilities, progress on Starship and growing exposure to government and defense spending.
The rebound underscores Wall Street’s confidence in SpaceX’s ability to capitalize on rapidly expanding opportunities across satellite broadband, commercial space launches and next-generation space transportation. Its vertically integrated business model, technological leadership and growing recurring revenue base have also strengthened the investment case.
Starlink: Key Growth EngineStarlink's continued expansion is one of the biggest pillars supporting SpaceX’s valuation. The satellite broadband platform has steadily broadened its reach across residential, enterprise, aviation, maritime and government markets.
Growing adoption increases the proportion of recurring subscription revenues within SpaceX’s overall business mix, reducing its dependence on the comparatively project-driven launch business. The improved revenue visibility can potentially support stronger margins and more predictable cash flows over the long run.
Starlink also benefits from SpaceX’s ability to launch its own satellites at relatively low incremental cost. This vertical integration allows the company to expand its network faster while avoiding the launch expenses that competing satellite operators typically incur. Continued investment in higher-capacity satellites and improved network infrastructure should further strengthen Starlink’s ability to address rising global demand for high-speed connectivity.
Launch Dominance Boosts SpaceX’s Competitive PositionSpaceX’s formidable position in the orbital launch market is another major factor supporting investor confidence. The company’s reusable Falcon 9 platform has transformed launch economics by significantly lowering the cost of accessing orbit. Reusability, high launch frequency and an established operating track record have created formidable competitive advantages that rivals find difficult to replicate.
Higher launch cadence also generates operating efficiencies. SpaceX can spread fixed infrastructure and development costs across a larger number of missions, potentially strengthening profitability as volumes increase. Demand continues to originate from a diverse customer base that includes commercial satellite operators, government agencies, national-security customers and SpaceX’s own Starlink constellation. This diversified launch pipeline provides another layer of revenue visibility.
The ability to serve external customers while simultaneously supporting Starlink deployment gives SpaceX an ecosystem advantage that remains difficult for competing launch providers to match.
AI, Data and Global Connectivity Lend SupportAnother factor supporting the bullish narrative is the increasing importance of global connectivity. Demand for data transmission continues to grow as cloud computing, AI, autonomous systems and connected devices proliferate worldwide. Satellite communications could become an increasingly important component of this infrastructure, particularly in areas where terrestrial broadband remains inadequate. Starlink's global network gives SpaceX exposure to this secular trend.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure. The buyout of Anysphere – a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor – gives SpaceX exposure to a high-growth software business while strengthening its AI capabilities. It adds a widely adopted developer platform that could complement the company's growing technology portfolio.
Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s 2026 loss has narrowed from 53 cents per share to 5 cents over the past 30 days. The same for 2027 earnings has improved from 68 cents to $1.63. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likely PitfallsDespite the strong growth prospects, SPCX is not devoid of challenges. A $2 trillion valuation leaves relatively little room for execution disappointments and implies significant expectations for future revenue and earnings growth. Any slowdown in Starlink subscriber additions, delays in Starship development or deterioration in launch reliability could pressure investor sentiment.
SpaceX also faces substantial capital requirements. Building satellites, developing launch vehicles and expanding communications infrastructure require persistent investment. Meanwhile, competition across the satellite Internet and launch markets is intensifying as governments and private companies invest aggressively in alternative platforms. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding spectrum allocation, orbital congestion and international market access represents another potential headwind.
Price PerformanceSpaceX has declined 6.9% since its IPO against the industry’s growth of 117.4% over the past month. It has lagged peers like Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) over this period. While Verizon has jumped 5.2%, AT&T is up 11.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NoteSpaceX is steadily transforming from a pure-play aerospace company into a diversified AI infrastructure leader. Its aggressive investments in AI computing, expanding enterprise partnerships and plans for space-based data centers underscore management's conviction that AI will be a key driver of future growth.
Although the AI segment is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated investment levels, the company's long-term growth prospects appear increasingly tied to the rapid expansion of the global AI infrastructure market. While high operating costs and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears well-positioned to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. Those who already own the stock can hold onto it while new investors may wait for a better entry point.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SpaceX uvedla 12,0 milionu předplatitelů Starlinku, což je oproti 1. čtvrtletí nárůst o 16,5 %. Měsíční ARPU zůstal na 66 USD, i když firma přidala 1,7 milionu nových zákazníků.
When recently IPO'd Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +6.42%), or SpaceX, released its first quarterly earnings report, there wasn't much in it that was unexpected.
Revenue grew. Net loss shrank. Capital expenditures in the AI business skyrocketed. Ho hum. But buried in the report were a pair of numbers that made me do a double-take. I had to check to make sure I read them correctly.
These two numbers could actually be a game changer for SpaceX's profitability. Here's what they are and why they're important.
Image source: Getty Images.
Buried on page 5 SpaceX highlighted its biggest, boldest numbers on page 1 of its report, boasting about its $14.1 billion in contracted Cloud Services Agreements sales, and its $6 billion in multi-year government Starshield contracts.
But on page 5 -- literally halfway through the 10-page report -- these two numbers caught my eye: 12.0 and $66.
12.0 is the number of subscribers, in millions, for SpaceX's Starlink satellite broadband and wireless network, which offers communications access to people around the globe who aren't served by traditional cellular towers or internet cable networks.
That's actually a sizable 16.5% jump from the 10.3 million Starlink subscribers that SpaceX reported in the first quarter, and it's double the 6 million Starlink subscribers that SpaceX reported in the second quarter of 2025.
The other number -- $66 -- is where it really gets interesting.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Holding steady $66 is the monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) of those 12 million Starlink subscribers. That's unchanged from Q1 ... which is a big surprise.
In Q2 2025, Starlink's monthly ARPU was $85 for its 6 million subscribers. When that shrank to $66 for 10.3 million subscribers in Q1, most analysts assumed that Starlink's ARPU would continue steadily shrinking as it expanded into less profitable markets, likely at a similar rate. Instead, Starlink was able to add 1.7 million net new subscribers without margin shrinkage. That's huge.
Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable segment, and it's essentially offsetting all the losses from the rocket launch segment and some of the losses from the AI segment. However, if Starlink can continue to grow its subscriber base while mostly maintaining its current ARPU, the company could become profitable much earlier than most analysts -- including me -- anticipated.
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That said, one quarter doesn't make a trend. It's always a good idea to wait for multiple quarterly reports before buying shares of a recent IPO.
It's possible this quarter is just a blip, and Starlink's ARPU will continue to shrink in the third quarter. Or SpaceX's AI losses might accelerate faster than anticipated. With just one official quarterly report to go on, there's no way to tell.
But if this trend continues in Q3, I might have to rethink my conclusion that SpaceX is wildly overvalued.
SpaceX se stává novým konkurentem CoreWeave v AI cloudu, protože nabízí výpočetní kapacitu i externím zákazníkům. CoreWeave přitom v posledním čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 112 % na 2,6 miliardy USD.
When investors think about CoreWeave's (CRWV -3.58%) biggest competitors, names like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nebius probably come to mind.
But one of the most interesting potential competitors doesn't look like a cloud company at all. It builds rockets. And yes, it's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.02%), also known as SpaceX.
That may sound strange. SpaceX is best known for rockets and Starlink, while CoreWeave provides cloud computing for artificial intelligence. But the lines between those businesses are beginning to blur.
SpaceX and its AI ecosystem are building enormous amounts of computing capacity, including massive Nvidia-powered data centers. And that capacity is increasingly being made available to outside customers.
For CoreWeave investors, this matters for a reason that goes beyond losing a few customers -- SpaceX could help change the economics of AI computing itself.
Image source: Getty Images.
CoreWeave is essentially selling computing power The easiest way to understand CoreWeave is to think of it as a utility for AI.
Companies building advanced AI models need enormous amounts of computing power. Instead of spending billions of dollars building everything themselves, they can rent access to specialized infrastructure from providers such as CoreWeave.
CoreWeave supplies the GPUs, data centers, networking, storage, and software needed to make that computing power available. The business has benefited from a powerful trend: AI demand has grown extremely quickly, while new computing capacity takes time and enormous amounts of money to build.
That imbalance has been good for CoreWeave. For perspective, the tech company grew revenue by 112% in the latest quarter to $2.6 billion while revenue backlog surged 246% to $104 billion.
But it also creates an important question for long-term investors: What happens when the supply of AI computing catches up with demand? That's where SpaceX becomes interesting.
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The rocket company is building an AI empire SpaceX's connection to AI comes largely through xAI and its massive Colossus computing facilities. These data centers have been built to support the enormous computing requirements of AI models and deploy hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs.
But the infrastructure isn't necessarily limited to internal use. SpaceX has also signed agreements to provide computing capacity to outside companies, including major AI players. For perspective, SpaceX announced that it contracted $14.1 billion in computing power to external customers in the latest quarter.
That changes the story. SpaceX isn't simply building computers to support an AI company. It is increasingly becoming part of the AI computing market. And unlike a typical start-up entering the industry, SpaceX brings an unusual collection of advantages.
SpaceX has something most competitors don't CoreWeave's biggest advantage is specialization. It has focused primarily on AI infrastructure.
SpaceX has a completely different advantage: scale and engineering capability. Building AI infrastructure requires far more than buying Nvidia GPUs. It requires enormous amounts of electricity, suitable land, data centers, cooling systems, networking equipment, and the ability to bring all of it online quickly.
SpaceX has spent years building extremely complex physical infrastructure in industries where failure is not an option. That doesn't automatically make it a better AI cloud provider. But it gives the company an unusual ability to tackle the physical constraints that limit AI computing.
And that could become increasingly important as the industry expands.
CoreWeave still has a powerful weapon None of this means CoreWeave's investment thesis is broken. In fact, the company has an advantage that's difficult for newcomers to replicate: experience.
Running a massive GPU cluster isn't simply about owning GPUs. Customers need reliable performance, fast deployment, efficient scheduling, high utilization, and software that makes thousands of GPUs work together effectively.
CoreWeave has been building that expertise for years. Its specialization also allows it to focus entirely on AI infrastructure rather than balancing the business against rockets, satellites, or other priorities. Besides, it has developed relationships with major AI customers, positioning it well to expand with these customers.
So the competition may ultimately come down to two very different strengths. SpaceX has scale and engineering firepower. CoreWeave has specialization and AI-cloud expertise.
What CoreWeave investors should watch This is why four things deserve close attention over the next several years.
The first is pricing. If CoreWeave can maintain attractive pricing as computing supply increases, that's a sign its platform remains differentiated.
The second is GPU utilization. Expensive GPUs only create value when customers are actually using them.
The third is capital efficiency. CoreWeave is spending enormous amounts of money to expand. Investors need to see those investments producing increasingly attractive returns.
And finally, watch customer diversification. A broader customer base would reduce CoreWeave's dependence on a small number of enormous AI customers and strengthen its bargaining position.
If CoreWeave delivers on these four areas, it may signal that the company has built a defensive position against large tech giants like SpaceX and, to an extent, incumbents like Amazon and Alphabet.
ARK Invest říká, že druhá Starbase SpaceX v Louisianě za 100 miliard USD je „masivně předimenzovaná“, ale má podpořit AI a Starlink. Winton tvrdí, že současná kapacita nestačí na plánované tempo startů.
Cathie Wood-led ARK Invest‘s Chief Futurist Brett Winton has weighed in on why Elon Musk and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) are heavily investing in building a second Starbase spaceport in Louisiana.
Starbase Will Feature Multiple Starship TowersAccording to an investor note released by ARK on Monday, Winton said that the Starbase in Louisiana was a $100 billion commitment spanning roughly 125,000 acres at Pecan Island in Vermilion Parish and will feature five complexes, each equipped with two Starship towers.
It will start with ten launch pads and eventually expand to over a dozen towers supporting around 30 flights per day, Winton said, touting on-site propellant production, power generation, deep-water shipping, vehicle processing, employee housing, and likely an airport.
He also pointed to SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who said that SpaceX’s current capacity cannot accommodate Starship’s intended launch cadence.
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ARK Invest anticipates this capacity will serve payloads worth trillions of dollars annually, starting with billions for Starlink and trillions for the Starmind AI constellation. Per ARK’s estimates, a single reusable Starlink-loaded Starship flight could generate about $4 billion in lifetime net cash flow against $1 billion in launch, satellite manufacturing, ground station, and acquisition costs, he wrote in the investor note.
An Opportunity Larger Than ARK Can ModelTaking to X on Monday, Winton expanded upon the note as he quoted an earlier post he made that detailed Starbase’s cost coming in just behind Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s (D-CA) California High Speed Rail Project, but it was for a reason. “We think this [Starlink] opportunity scales into the hundreds of billions of dollars before returns begin to decay,” Winton said in the post.
He added that the commercial space flight company was “going after a larger connectivity opportunity than we currently mode,” outlining SpaceX’s claimed $1.6 trillion opportunity compared to ARK’s $600 billion figure.
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“Starbase Louisiana is massively overbuilt for just serving connectivity,” he said. “The reason to build so big: the AI opportunity can compound at much larger scale,” Winton added.
“We think cost per GW on earth moves north of $60b per GW in 2029 and crosses $76b in 2032,” he said, talking about terrestrial data center costs per Gigawatt and how SpaceX’s AI satellites could weigh 2,000 kg each, while citing Starlink’s per-satellite cost of $1000/kg.
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“We also know that cost of launch will fall to something south of $100 per kg all-in if they can make Starship reuseable,” he said. He added that this could translate to SpaceX launching satellites for $38 billion per GW.
In the same thread, he outlined that “after the 100th launch of its AI satellites,” SpaceX will have brought the costs down to $32 billion per GW. “SpaceX should enjoy an undeniable cost advantage over every other player,” he said, but warned monetization could become a challenge.
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Price Action: SPCX shares fell 0.91% to $143.29 during pre-market trading on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.
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Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
SpaceX úspěšně vynesla teleskop NASA Nancy Grace Roman za 4,3 miliardy USD na raketě Falcon Heavy. Pro firmu je to další důkaz spolehlivosti při plnění vládních zakázek.
The Roman telescope launch adds another high-profile government mission to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy record. Summary
NASA’s Roman telescope cost about $4.3 billionSpaceX launched it aboard a Falcon Heavy rocket
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX, Financials), the aerospace company, successfully launched NASA's $4.3 billion Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope aboard a Falcon Heavy rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
The telescope is beginning a mission expected to last five to 10 years and will eventually operate roughly 1 million miles from Earth.
For SpaceX, the investor angle is less about the telescope's scientific goals and more about what the launch says about government demand for its heavy-lift capabilities.
Falcon Heavy has become an important part of SpaceX's launch portfolio for large and complex payloads, including high-value government missions.
Roman will study dark matter, dark energy and planets outside the solar system. NASA expects scientific observations to begin as early as December, with the first images due in 2027.
The telescope can survey the sky roughly 1,000 times faster than Hubble and uses a wide-field infrared camera capable of capturing far larger areas at once.
L3Harris Technologies supplied the 2.4-meter Optical Telescope Assembly used by the mission.
For SpaceX, each successful government launch adds another proof point for reliability as agencies award increasingly expensive space contracts.
The next test will be whether Falcon Heavy continues winning high-value government missions as NASA and defense spending on space infrastructure expands.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Bernstein označil direct-to-device za nejtěžší část podnikání SpaceX a potvrdil doporučení Outperform i cílovou cenu 248 USD. Firma plánuje zahájit starty Starship pro konstelaci Mobile V2 v polovině roku 2027.
Starship launches of the Mobile V2 constellation begin in mid-2027 Summary
Bernstein held Outperform and $248 while calling direct-to-device the hardest part of SpaceX's business, a segment it has questioned before.
Bernstein SocGen reiterated an Outperform rating and $248 price target on SpaceX SPCX, while calling direct-to-device mobile the most difficult part of the business to make work. SpaceX shares were up 0.93% intraday.
The note came from the firm's US communications infrastructure and telecom teams, and works through what a SpaceX mobile buildout would cost and what it would mean for carriers and tower operators. SpaceX plans to begin Starship launches of its Mobile V2 satellite constellation in mid-2027. Bernstein had already questioned whether direct-to-device economics hold up without a terrestrial partner in an earlier report on the same subject.
Bernstein stayed positive on launch services, orbital data centers, and Starlink broadband across consumer, enterprise and government customers. SpaceX generated $23 billion in revenue over the trailing twelve months at a 52% gross margin and is not yet profitable. The spread on the street is wide, with targets running from $117 to $450 against a stock that listed in June at $135.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
SpaceX ve druhém čtvrtletí zvýšilo tržby o 92 % na 7,8 miliardy USD a upravená EBITDA vyskočila o 191 % na 3,5 miliardy USD. Starlink přidal zhruba 12 milionů předplatitelů a vytvořil asi 1,66 miliardy USD provozního zisku.
For years, investors could only guess how much money Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%) was making. Now, they finally have an answer.
SpaceX has reported its first quarterly results as a public company, giving investors an unprecedented look at the financial performance of one of the world's most ambitious businesses.
And the numbers are hard to ignore. Revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier. Starlink continued to add customers at a remarkable pace. The company is already generating billions of dollars from businesses beyond rocket launches.
So, after its first earnings report, is SpaceX stock a buy? I think investors should focus on three things.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is already a growth machine The first takeaway is simple: SpaceX is no longer just a futuristic story. It's already a large and rapidly growing business.
SpaceX generated $7.8 billion of revenue in the second quarter, up 92% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) jumped 191% to $3.5 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million.
Those are extraordinary growth rates for a company of this size. More importantly, the growth isn't coming from a single product.
SpaceX still operates a rocket launch business. But Starlink, its internet connectivity business, has become an increasingly important part of the company, while its artificial intelligence business is already generating billions of dollars in revenue.
That's an important distinction. Investors aren't buying a company that promises to build the future someday. SpaceX is already building and monetizing parts of that future.
And that's why the first earnings report matters. It gives investors something they didn't have before: financial evidence that the SpaceX machine is working.
Starlink could be the secret weapon Of all the numbers in the earnings report, I'd pay particular attention to Starlink.
The satellite internet business generated $4.3 billion of revenue in the quarter, up 66% from a year earlier. Its subscriber base reached roughly 12 million, about twice the level from a year ago.
But subscriber growth isn't the only interesting part. Starlink generated approximately $1.66 billion of operating income. That's what gets my attention.
Starlink isn't simply another exciting project that requires SpaceX to keep pouring money into it. It's becoming a profit engine.
Think about what that could mean. SpaceX can take the cash generated by Starlink and reinvest it into more satellites, rockets, and infrastructure. Those investments can expand Starlink's network and potentially allow it to serve more customers. More customers can produce more revenue and cash flow. That creates a potentially powerful flywheel.
In other words, Starlink gives SpaceX something many moonshot companies don't have -- a rapidly growing business that can help fund the moonshots. That could prove enormously valuable as the company pursues its ambitions.
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The stock price is the problem Here's where the investment case gets harder.
SpaceX's stock, as of this writing, trades at about $140, giving it a valuation of roughly $1.9 trillion. That's an extraordinary valuation, considering its latest revenue of $7.8 billion.
In other words, investors aren't paying $1.9 trillion for today's SpaceX. They're paying for tomorrow's SpaceX.
They're paying for continued Starlink growth. They're paying for the successful development of Starship -- SpaceX's next-generation rocket. They're paying for the company's rapidly expanding AI ambitions and for markets that may not even exist at a meaningful scale today.
That's why I wouldn't look at SpaceX's 92% revenue growth and conclude that the stock is cheap. It isn't. Great businesses can still be poor investments when expectations get too high.
At this valuation, SpaceX has to deliver more than impressive growth. It has to deliver years of extraordinary growth and eventually convert that growth into substantially higher free cash flow.
So, should investors buy SpaceX? After its first earnings report, I'm more interested in SpaceX than I was before.
The company is growing at an extraordinary rate. Starlink is becoming a meaningful profit generator. And, perhaps most importantly, SpaceX is demonstrating that it can turn ambitious technology into businesses with real customers and real revenue.
But I wouldn't chase the stock simply because the numbers look impressive. The market already knows SpaceX is special. The question is whether it can become far more valuable than even today's enormous expectations suggest.
For that reason, I'd rather buy SpaceX during periods of weakness than at any price. A disappointing Starship test, slower Starlink subscriber growth, or concerns about the company's enormous capital spending could all cause the market to rethink its expectations.
Those moments may create better opportunities for long-term investors.
SpaceX začne vyrábět vlastní lopatky a lopatky/klapky pro plynové turbíny, aby urychlila jejich spuštění až o 18 měsíců. Elon Musk řekl, že samotná solární energie na rozmach infrastruktury pro AI nestačí.
Elon Musk said building parts in-house would allow SpaceX to accelerate natural gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months. Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty Images SpaceX is building a gas turbine blade factory as it grapples with a global scramble to secure energy supplies for AI data centers.
Elon Musk said on Saturday that the rocket company will manufacture its own gas turbine parts, adding that solar power alone would not be enough to power its massive AI infrastructure buildout.
In a post on X, Musk wrote that SpaceX and Tesla were both racing to build their own massive solar panel factories "as fast as possible" — but added that this would not be enough to meet surging demand for electricity.
"Natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years," Musk said, adding that SpaceX would seek to build its own gas turbine blades and vanes — which are notoriously difficult to manufacture — to speed up production.
"By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate natural gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, which is a profound game-changer," the billionaire said.
The Information first reported on SpaceX's plans. SpaceX has also begun advertising roles for a "blades and vanes foundry" in Bastrop, Texas, where the rocket company manufactures its Starlink terminals.
"Power generation poses one of the key challenges that could slow the worldwide adoption of AI," read one of the job descriptions.
The AI boom has led to a massive buildout of data centers across the US, which in turn has put electricity supplies under strain and sparked a nationwide public backlash.
Some AI companies have attempted to address their data center's hunger for power by building natural gas power plants.
OpenAI, Amazon, and Microsoft have all struck partnerships to power data centers with natural gas, while Meta's "Hyperion" data center in northern Louisiana will require 10 new gas power plants to supply it with electricity.
The rush to secure natural gas generators has sparked a global shortage of gas turbines and pushed some aerospace startups to repurpose their jet engines into turbines to fuel AI data centers.
SpaceX has used mobile gas turbines to power its Colossus data centers in Mississippi and Tennessee, where they have attracted local complaints over noise and pollution.
Like many other tech giants, SpaceX is spending aggressively on building new data centers and securing AI compute as it seeks to build ever more powerful AI models.
The company spent $16 billion on AI infrastructure in the second quarter of 2026, with executives telling investors to expect "very similar" levels of spending for the next two quarters.
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Morgan Stanley tvrdí, že ne-AI byznys SpaceX téměř celý ospravedlňuje současnou valuaci a AI je v ceně téměř zdarma. Analytik Adam Jonas vidí cenu akcie až na 300 USD za akcii během jednoho roku.
A funny thing happened when Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.44%) reported earnings this month. First, SpaceX declined 13.6% despite beats on both earnings per share and sales for the company. SpaceX lost only $0.09 per share in the quarter, where Wall Street had predicted a $0.29-per-share loss. Sales of $7.8 billion eclipsed forecasts by $1 billion.
Potentially worse news for investors, the earnings announcement triggered a "lock-up" expiration, permitting SpaceX insiders to sell 20% of their stock. A second lock-up expires later this week, when SpaceX passes the 70-days-after-IPO mark, allowing another 7% of the stock to be sold.
But instead of continuing to fall, SpaceX stock did a U-turn. It recovered all its losses and by Wednesday's close was back above its IPO price and trading for $140 a share.
And one Wall Street analyst thinks this is only the beginning of the rally for SpaceX stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Morgan Stanley loves SpaceX stock SpaceX today carries a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion. It has no profit to back up that valuation, granted, thanks to an artificial intelligence division that's losing more than $1 billion per quarter -- and burning through tens of billions of dollars per year.
But that doesn't scare Morgan Stanley one bit.
In a note released last week, MS analyst Adam Jonas argues that SpaceX's non-AI businesses alone support nearly all of the present value of SpaceX stock, based on a combination of forecast sales and "earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization" (EBITDA). To hear Jonas tell it, SpaceX AI comes basically free of charge on top of what investors are already paying for the rest of SpaceX.
Valuing SpaceX as a sum of its parts Here's how the math works.
Over the past 12 months, the Space and Connectivity divisions of SpaceX -- essentially, everything not AI -- generated a combined $17.9 billion in sales and $8.6 billion in EBITDA, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. AI generated $5.1 billion in sales, but negative EBITDA of $313 million.
Jonas, however, foresees incredible growth for SpaceX over the next couple of years, in Space and Connectivity, and especially in AI.
The analyst calculates that earnings from Space and Connectivity justify the first $127 of SpaceX's current $140 share price -- so 91% of the stock's total market cap. Valuing the stock at 52 times 2028 EBITDA, and reverse-engineering Jonas' math, implies a forecast of $31.5 billion in EBITDA for Space and Connectivity in 2028 -- a 266% increase in just two years.
Meanwhile, consensus estimates on Wall Street have SpaceX as a whole generating $126.8 billion in EBITDA in 2028. Backing out the $31.5 billion contribution from Space and Connectivity, the AI division flips from a loss today to a $95.3 billion EBITDA profit just two years from now.
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How to value SpaceXAI This is a bold prediction. Assuming these estimates are correct, investors are valuing Space and Connectivity EBITDA at a 52 multiple. But they're valuing EBITDA from AI at an ultralow 1.7, giving this division a standalone market capitalization of just $162 billion.
What's more, they're doing this even though -- again, assuming Jonas' numbers are right -- SpaceX's AI division will be growing not just sales but profit many times faster than its Space and Connectivity divisions are growing.
Is that fair? Are investors assigning the "right" price to SpaceX AI?
Well, $162 billion might seem like a fair price to pay for an AI business currently generating negative EBITDA. It might even seem generous. But if two years of hypergrowth grow SpaceX's AI division to the point that it's generating 75% of SpaceX's profit, you'd expect investors would happily pay a much higher price for it. Accordingly, Jonas argues that SpaceX stock, which costs $140 today, could easily reach $300 per share within one year -- and potentially hit $600 in a bull-case scenario.
I remain skeptical. With all due respect to Jonas, I'm going to wait and see SpaceX's AI division prove that it can earn any profit at all before engaging in speculation about how fast it can grow its profit. Still, the possibility is intriguing.
If Jonas' estimates bear fruit, SpaceX stock could be a screaming buy.
Donald Trump v červnu koupil akcie SpaceX v rozmezí 15 001 až 50 000 USD, ukazuje veřejné finanční přiznání. Jde o novou finanční vazbu na firmu Elona Muska v době, kdy vláda rozhoduje o sektoru kosmických startů.
U.S. President Donald Trump invested as much as $50,000 in Elon Musk's SpaceX in June, according to a public financial disclosure, giving him a financial stake in a major government contractor run by his former adviser.
He bought between $15,001 and $50,000 in shares on June 23, according to a financial disclosure signed by him on August 12 and made public on August 22. The purchase was part of more than 1,000 stock trades the president made in June.
SpaceX held its initial public offering on June 12, which demolished IPO records.
In a statement to Reuters, White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that third-party financial institutions independently manage the president's portfolio and replicate "recognized indexes, such as the Schwab 1000."
"Neither President Trump nor any member of his family has any ability to direct, influence, or provide input regarding how the portfolio is invested or when investments are bought or sold," Ingle said in the statement.
Trump's investment in SpaceX adds a new financial link between the president and Musk's rocket company at a time when the administration is making decisions that could affect the firm's fortunes.
SpaceX is a U.S. military contractor, and often seeks approvals from federal agencies. Trump on Thursday directed his team to help drastically increase the number of U.S. commercial space launches. SpaceX is a dominant player in that sector.
Reuters could not immediately determine the precise amount of the investment because federal officials use ranges to declare the value of their assets on their financial disclosure forms.
