SpaceX podle Reuters plánuje začít příští měsíc stavět osmimílový plynovod Starpipe k texaským startovacím zařízením. Dodávky mají zatím jít přes Valley Crossing Pipeline společnosti Enbridge.
Following its IPO and subsequent bond offering, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) now has more than $100 billion in new capital at its disposal. Expect SpaceX to go on a massive spending spree to spur growth and justify its $2 trillion valuation.
What will SpaceX's spending focus on? Artificial intelligence will likely be the biggest beneficiary. More than 90% of SpaceX's claimed total addressable market is AI-focused. That means investors should expect the company to dramatically scale terrestrial data center construction. But SpaceX will also now aggressively pursue putting AI data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers (ODCs).
ODCs will need many things to happen before they become a reality, one of which is successful commercialization of SpaceX's Starship megarocket. This megarocket -- which is significantly larger than the company's Falcon Heavy rocket -- would meaningfully improve SpaceX's ability to get larger payloads to space more affordably. ODCs, for example, could be launched at scale using Starship rockets.
One of SpaceX's biggest constraints on growth in this opportunity set, however, is access to rocket fuel. To solve that problem, SpaceX is reportedly looking to build its own natural gas pipeline. SpaceX may even look to produce its own natural gas over the long term.
How will this impact energy markets, and in particular, pipeline stocks? There are two factors to consider.
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1. SpaceX's natural gas pipeline won't endanger pipeline stocks According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas pipelines deliver roughly 30 trillion cubic feet to nearly 80 million consumers each year. A single Starship launch, for comparison, uses around 630,000 gallons of liquid methane, which equates to around 0.0000521 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Even if SpaceX launched 1,000 Starship rockets every year, it would still amount to less than 0.2% of U.S. natural gas demand transported by pipelines.
In short, SpaceX's actions aren't about to disintermediate conventional pipeline networks. In fact, SpaceX's actions could benefit certain pipeline networks in the long term.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Pipeline stocks could actually benefit from SpaceX's actions long term According to reporting from Reuters, SpaceX "plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile natural gas pipeline called 'Starpipe' to its Texas launch facilities." Construction is expected to conclude in January 2027.
Reuters observes:
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds, and eventually thousands of launches a year.
Where will Starpipe's natural gas come from? SpaceX apparently wants to explore drilling for its own natural gas in the long term. But for now, it seems likely that supply will come from Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline.
Pipeline stocks, therefore, won't be affected by SpaceX's foray into pipeline construction. Enbridge may even benefit directly, with other natural gas pipeline stocks benefiting from a new source of demand that could support prices over the long term, even if it remains a fraction of total U.S. demand.
SpaceX má v dohodě o lock-upu po IPO skrytou klauzuli: pokud akcie před zveřejněním výsledků uzavřou na 30 % nad IPO cenou v pěti z deseti dnů, 7. srpna se uvolní dalších 456 milionů akcií.
If SpaceX shares close above that level— 30% above the company’s $135 IPO price—on five of the 10 trading days leading up to earnings, an overlooked provision in the company’s IPO lock-up agreement will kick in, unlocking 456 million additional shares just two days after the first scheduled insider share release.
It’s a little-known clause that could quietly make SpaceX’s first major lock-up expiration significantly larger than many investors expect.
Most investors are already watching Aug. 5, when approximately 912 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible non-affiliate holdings, become eligible for sale on the second trading day after SpaceX reports second-quarter results.
But that’s only the first wave.
The IPO prospectus includes a performance-based provision allowing another 456 million shares—or an additional 10% of eligible holdings—to be released on Aug. 7 if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price on five of the 10 trading days preceding the first earnings release.
In other words, strong stock performance—not weak performance—could accelerate the amount of stock eligible to enter the market.
Why It MattersLock-up expirations don’t automatically result in insider selling. Employees, executives and early investors can choose to continue holding their shares, particularly if they remain confident in the company’s long-term prospects.
But traders closely monitor lock-up events because they increase the supply of shares that can be sold, sometimes creating additional volatility around earnings or other major catalysts.
The conditional Aug. 7 release makes SpaceX’s lock-up schedule particularly unusual. Rather than tying insider liquidity to the passage of time alone, the company linked part of the release to the stock’s own performance—a mechanism that rewards strength by allowing more shares to become eligible for trading sooner.
Beyond August, SpaceX’s lock-up schedule remains staggered through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, including a 1.3 billion-share release following third-quarter earnings. Elon Musk‘s 6.4 billion shares remain subject to a separate one-year lock-up that is not eligible for early release.
What Investors Should WatchSpaceX’s first earnings report is already shaping up to be one of the company’s biggest post-IPO events. But the results may not be the only catalyst.
If the stock can hold above roughly $175.50 often enough before earnings, investors could see more than 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale within just two trading days—912 million on Aug. 5 and another 456 million on Aug. 7. That doesn’t guarantee a wave of insider selling, but it does make one little-known IPO clause worth watching just as closely as the earnings report itself.
Image via Shutterstock
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SpaceX se před úterním otevřením trhu stane součástí Nasdaq-100, takže indexové fondy a ETF budou muset akcie držet. Pasivní nákupy mohou podle odhadů dosáhnout až 4,3 miliardy USD z ETF QQQ, přičemž celkové nákupy fondů sledujících Nasdaq-100 a Russell mohou dosáhnout až 27 miliard USD.
The InclusionSpaceX will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally, meaning every index fund and ETF tracking the benchmark will be required to own SpaceX shares as of Tuesday’s open.
Estimates suggest passive investors could purchase up to $4.3 billion in shares from the QQQ ETF alone, with total Nasdaq-100 and Russell index tracking fund buying potentially reaching $27 billion.
SpaceX Shares Edge HigherSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 2.44% higher at $165.96, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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SpaceX podle článku vidí větší potenciál v konektivitě než v AI: Starlink má provozní zisk 4,4 miliardy USD a firma zvažuje vstup do mobilních služeb. Trh internetu a bezdrátových služeb odhaduje na 1,6 bilionu USD.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, has been receiving a lot of attention for its deals to sell compute capacity to artificial intelligence (AI) companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet. So far, it holds contracts worth about $28 billion in annual revenue.
In its in initial public offering (IPO) registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX said the total addressable market for its AI businesses is $26.5 trillion. That includes a $2.4 trillion infrastructure market, where SpaceX eventually plans to extend from terrestrial data centers to solar-powered orbital data centers, and a huge opportunity to sell enterprise AI applications.
But things change quickly at SpaceX, and it's reportedly pursuing an opportunity in a $1.6 trillion market that could prove even more valuable than its AI operations. Here's what investors need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The most promising business inside SpaceX could be getting bigger SpaceX had a net loss of $5 billion on $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, but a look under the hood reveals several different stories. The company's launch services and AI segments generated significant operating losses last year, but its Starlink connectivity business generated $4.4 billion in operating income. Both subscribers and profits more than doubled from the prior year, even as it lowered its average pricing.
The next move for Starlink could be an expansion into wireless phone service. The company is reportedly planning to launch a mobile service for U.S. consumers in the near future, taking on telecom giants AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
SpaceX has held talks with Charter Communications for a potential mobile phone partnership, according to reports. Doing so could give it access to Charter's internet infrastructure and its mobile virtual network agreement with Verizon.
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Ultimately, SpaceX sees the potential for the internet and wireless phone service market to reach $1.6 trillion, according to its IPO filing. And it has the potential to offer the service at a relatively high margin. Starlink's operating margin is about 40%, and that could climb higher as it scales operations and reduces launch costs. Athough the operating margin on wireless communication businesses is considerably lower (about 20% for the three big U.S. carriers), SpaceX could find that supplementing its network, or partner network, with its satellite connectivity could allow it to generate higher margins.
Meanwhile, it's unclear how profitable the AI segment can be. Although management boasts a tremendous return on its invested capital from its infrastructure-as-a-service deals, it might not have a long-term competitive advantage. The cost and viability of orbital data centers will determine if SpaceX can scale its operations and how profitable it will be.
At the same time, SpaceX's own AI development efforts appear to be taking a back seat, as it has fallen behind leading AI labs and has seen limited consumer traction. It will likely remain a niche player in the sector, weighing on operating margins. Despite the vast addressable market, SpaceX doesn't appear well-positioned to capture a significant share.
As such, I see much more potential for profit in the connectivity business than in AI.
How big could the business get? There's little doubt SpaceX has a very compelling product with its satellite internet business. However, leveraging that into a full-on wireless business is more difficult. It needs to build out a terrestrial wireless network to offer a competitive service. That takes both time, money, and access to limited, government-controlled spectrum licenses.
To that end, SpaceX acquired 65 MHz from EchoStar and participated in the recent Federal Communication Commission (FCC) auction for some of EchoStar's forfeited licenses. However, its participation was limited to filling in just a few key gaps, not indicative of plans to build an entire network.
To put SpaceX's spectrum position into perspective, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon have 375 MHz, 314 MHz, and 279 MHz in population-weighted spectrum licenses, respectively. The next significant FCC auction is next year, so it will take a long time for SpaceX to catch up and build out a network.
But SpaceX does offer a key supplementary service to wireless carriers: satellite connectivity in remote areas. In fact, SpaceX's posturing may simply be a negotiating tactic to secure better terms or longer-term partnerships. SpaceX currently partners with T-Mobile in the U.S.
In that case, it could continue to expand the profitable Starlink business and receive a nice profit boost from carrier deals before pursuing the wireless space directly. New York University professor Aswath Damodaran projects it could generate $120 billion at a 60% operating margin by 2036. That's a 10-fold increase in 10 years, and it seems like a reasonable estimate based on the strength of the satellite connectivity business.
Unfortunately, investors are currently paying a premium price for the rest of the company, including its AI operations. If you expect an investment in SpaceX to produce reasonable returns at its current price, you must also expect the AI business to prove more profitable in the long run than its connectivity business. Right now, the connectivity business holds more promise.
SpaceX se mění v platformu pro starty, konektivitu a AI infrastrukturu; dohody o AI hostingu naznačují zhruba 26 miliard USD ročních opakujících se výnosů. Starlink má 10,3 milionu předplatitelů.
SummarySpaceX is evolving into an integrated launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure platform, with AI expected to become its primary long-term growth driver.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, while AI hosting agreements imply approximately $26 billion in annualized recurring revenue.Starship V3 is expected to increase payload capacity twentyfold and reduce launch costs per kilogram by roughly ten times, strengthening internal economics.Despite strong growth prospects, SPCX reported a $4.94 billion FY2025 net loss, a $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss, and raised $25 billion through bonds.Investors should monitor AI hosting revenue, operating margin improvement, and cash burn, as execution will determine whether the premium valuation remains justified. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO investment story extends well beyond launch services. It is becoming an end-to-end infrastructure platform covering space transport, connectivity, and AI computing. Now that SpaceX has gone public, investor attention is more likely
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SpaceX po IPO dosáhla valuace kolem 2,1 bilionu USD, přestože má za posledních 12 měsíců čistou ztrátu asi 9,4 miliardy USD. Jde o nejhodnotnější ztrátovou firmu v historii.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) went public on June 12 at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Three weeks later, the rocket, satellite-internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company commands a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. Only a handful of companies have ever been worth that much -- and every one of them earned billions in profits when it got there.
SpaceX is different. Across 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, its reported losses add up to a trailing net loss of about $9.4 billion, set against roughly $19.3 billion in trailing revenue.
That combination raises a question worth answering before the company joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 -- an event that will make index funds automatic buyers of the stock. Has a money-losing business ever been valued this highly? And if it hasn't, should investors care?
Image source: Getty Images.
A price arguably without precedent Start with the historical check. The market has valued unprofitable companies richly before, but the previous standard-bearers operated on a different scale entirely. Rivian, the electric-truck maker, briefly commanded a market value of about $150 billion in late 2021 while deeply unprofitable -- and that stood out as extreme at the time. Uber ran years of losses with a valuation that topped out around $100 billion. Amazon, the dot-com era's favorite money-loser, was worth only tens of billions back when it was losing money.
SpaceX's $2.1 trillion is roughly 14 times the Rivian benchmark. I can't find a money-losing company in market history that has come anywhere close. So it's safe to say that SpaceX appears to be the most valuable unprofitable company the market has ever seen.
Now, the loss itself deserves a closer look, because it isn't the loss of a struggling business. According to the company's IPO prospectus, SpaceX -- whose filings also include xAI, the AI business it absorbed -- generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, and lost $4.9 billion. Then it lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
But the composition matters. Starlink, the satellite-internet business, produced $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue -- about 61% of the total -- and generated $4.4 billion in operating profit. The losses come from everything surrounding it: about $3 billion a year of research and development spending on the Starship rocket program, plus the enormous computing costs of the AI operation. In plain terms, one highly profitable business is funding two gigantic bets.
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What a $2.1 trillion price tag demands What makes the record more than trivia is what it implies about expectations. At about $2.1 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its trailing revenue -- not its earnings, its revenue. A price like that requires nearly everything to go right: Starlink must keep compounding for years, Starship must eventually turn its development spending into dramatically cheaper access to space, and the AI bet must justify losses that are widening, not narrowing. The $75 billion raised in the IPO buys time, but it doesn't change what has to happen.
Fresh evidence is coming. SpaceX hasn't yet announced the date of its first earnings report as a public company, but that report -- expected this summer -- will offer the first new numbers since the prospectus, including whether Starlink's growth and margins are holding up and how fast the Starship and AI spending is scaling.
The answer to the headline question, then, is yes: Investors should care -- not because losses disqualify a stock, but because of the expectations this price locks in. Amazon lost money for years and became one of the great investments of all time. The difference is that Amazon's doubters could buy it for tens of billions. SpaceX asks investors to pay a price that already assumes the bets pay off, from a company that has yet to file a single quarterly report as a publicly traded company, with fortunes still closely tied to CEO Elon Musk.
Personally, I'll let the first few earnings reports answer the questions the prospectus can't. Records are fascinating. That doesn't make them buyable.
Starlink dosáhl 10,3 milionu předplatitelů a je jedinou ziskovou částí podnikání SpaceX. V 1. čtvrtletí jeho růst zdvojnásobil zákaznickou základnu za rok.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), known as SpaceX, trade at a steep premium, and that valuation is built on more than the company launching rockets. A big part of the bull case is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, which reached 10.3 million subscribers in the first quarter.
Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year. That growth matters because Starlink is the company's most profitable business right now. Those profits can help fund SpaceX's broader ambitions in space and artificial intelligence (AI), which together represent enormous growth potential for the company.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is starving for capital SpaceX may be best known as Elon Musk's rocket company, but the financial picture looks more like a vertically integrated technology infrastructure business with three operating segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI.
In 2025, the company generated $18.6 billion in total revenue and incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion across all segments. Starlink was the only profitable business. The Connectivity segment delivered more than $11 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, providing SpaceX with a meaningful pool of internally generated capital.
SpaceX is directing most of its capital spending toward the AI segment, which may signal where management sees the greatest upside over the next few years. Of the $20.7 billion in capital expenditures last year, $12.7 billion went to the AI segment, which includes xAI (Grok).
The IPO raised $86 billion in new capital, boosting its cash and equivalents to $100 billion as of June 19. It didn't waste time in deploying this fresh capital, recently acquiring Anysphere and its leading enterprise AI coding platform, Cursor. The company is trying to accelerate AI capabilities, even if that means aggressive capital deployment.
That's why Starlink's profitability is strategically valuable, and it's expected to grow quite quickly over the next few years. Goldman Sachs estimates Starlink revenue could reach $144 billion by 2030. If segment margins hold, that would put the connectivity segment's operating profit at over $50 billion -- cash that could materially support SpaceX's plans in space and AI.
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Starlink is one piece of a bigger empire The long-term value of owning AI models, data centers, communication satellites, and reusable rocket technology under one roof is hard to quantify, since space remains a largely unexplored frontier.
However, SpaceX pegs the combined addressable market across space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure at $28.5 trillion. That helps put the stock's $2 trillion market cap in perspective, but it's still very expensive, trading at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue. To justify that valuation, revenue needs to grow rapidly.
Starlink subscriber growth will be crucial, but investors should watch the AI segment, since that's where the company is investing the most capital. SpaceX recently struck a cloud services deal to lease xAI's data center capacity to Anthropic, in which it will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. More deals like this could open another large and growing revenue stream and potentially justify the stock's valuation.
SpaceX klesl o více než 6 % na 159,95 USD při volatilním obchodování po nedávném IPO. Wedbush ale zahájil pokrytí s doporučením outperform a cílovou cenou 190 USD.
SpaceX stock SPCX fell sharply on Wednesday as investors continued to navigate volatile post-IPO trading.
Shares of Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence company dropped more than 6% to $159.95 in early trading.
The decline came amid broader weakness in technology and semiconductor stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points.
Among other technology names, Micron fell 6%, Sandisk dropped 8%, Nvidia lost roughly 2%, and Broadcom declined about 1%.
The pullback highlights the ongoing debate over SpaceX's valuation following its blockbuster public market debut.
With the stock experiencing significant swings since listing, investors are increasingly looking to analyst assessments for clues about how much upside remains after the company's rapid ascent.
On Tuesday evening, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target.
"We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity, Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel, and increasing deal flow for its Colossus [AI data centers]," Ives wrote.
According to Ives, Starship remains central to the company's long-term growth strategy.
The analyst argued that the next-generation launch vehicle could reduce the cost of reaching space by roughly 90% compared with Falcon 9 missions, potentially enabling a broader range of commercial opportunities, including orbital AI data centers.
"All of SpaceX's future business runs through Starship, whether it's Starlink's next-generation [satellites], the orbital AI-compute constellation, the Artemis lunar lander, or the cost-and-capacity step the whole forward [valuation] case assumes," Ives wrote.
"The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk."
Ives based his valuation on a sum-of-the-parts framework that separately assesses the company's launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence businesses.
Under that approach, he values SpaceX's launch operations at approximately $66 billion and Starlink at roughly $600 billion.
The largest component of the valuation is the company's artificial intelligence business, which Ives estimates is worth approximately $1.8 trillion.
He expects AI-related operations to generate more than $80 billion in revenue by 2028, before any contribution from potential orbital AI data centers.
The analysis places significant emphasis on SpaceX's expanding AI ambitions alongside its traditional aerospace operations.
Separately, SpaceX is set to become one of the fastest companies ever added to the Nasdaq-100 index following recent rule changes adopted by Nasdaq.
Nasdaq announced after last Friday's close that SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index.
Assuming the company continues to meet eligibility requirements, index-tracking funds and related investment products will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, one of the largest and most actively traded exchange-traded funds.
SpaceX is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Even with a relatively small weighting, inclusion could create meaningful buying demand because SpaceX's public float remains limited compared with its overall market capitalization.
Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need to acquire shares to reflect the benchmark's revised composition, while active managers benchmarked against the index may also adjust positions.
Short interest na SpaceX vzrostl na 31 % volně obchodovaných akcií, ale shortaři už od IPO prodělávají zhruba 760 milionů USD. Půjčení akcií zůstává levné, kolem 1 %.
The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesShort interest about 31% of SpaceX free float — Ortex dataCost to borrow still relatively cheap at 1% from as high as 14% at launchShorts sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 mln since IPO, Ortex saysNo squeeze yet, but if shares rebound short sellers could be hitNEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Short sellers are betting SpaceX's(SPCX.O), opens new tab will resume its post-debut decline with nearly a third of its tradable shares now sold short — even as those wagers have already cost them nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars in paper losses.
The sizeable short position could inject further volatility into the stock, with every $1 SpaceX share price swing translating to roughly $200 million in gains or losses for shorts, Ortex estimates.
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Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a profit when the stock slips, were emboldened after SpaceX shares' initial burst of strength gave way to weakness and the share price slipped as much as 23% in the days following its June 12 market debut.
Short interest now stands at 196 million shares, about 31% of the free float, through Tuesday, up from some 83 million shares, or 13% of the free float, a week ago, Ortex data showed.
"(The rise in short bets) is extraordinary for a stock that has been public less than a month," said Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg.
SpaceX's more than $2 trillion valuation makes it a target for short sellers skeptical of its rich price tag, but strong retail and institutional interest and Musk's history of public battles against short sellers make that a risky proposition. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SpaceX shorts are sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 million since the IPO, Ortex estimates.
When the stock bottomed near $153 last week they were up around $2.5 billion on paper, but the rebound in SpaceX shares since has wiped all of that out, Ortex data showed.
"SpaceX has been a roller coaster for the short sellers," Hillerberg said.
The cost to borrow SpaceX shares, a gauge of demand to short a stock relative to the supply of shares available to lend, remains relatively cheap at about 1%, Ortex data showed.
Given the number of shares sold short relative to the total tradable shares available, should SpaceX's stock price continue to rebound, short covering — where bearish investors are forced to buy shares to close out their wagers to avoid further losses — has the potential to push the shares even higher, Hillerberg said.
"(It's) a lot of potential fuel if it tips into a squeeze," he said.
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed Editing by Nick Zieminski Editing by Nick Zieminski
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Wedbush zahájil pokrytí SpaceX s doporučením outperform a cílovou cenou 190 USD, tedy asi 16 % nad úterním závěrem. Firma podle něj není jen raketová společnost, ale hyperscaler se třemi byznysy: Starlink, Starship a AI segment.
Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
SpaceX by mohla zhruba do měsíce uskutečnit 13. test Starshipu, což by podpořilo její snahu zlepšit ekonomiku kosmického podnikání. Firma ale zůstává ve ztrátě a ARPU Starlinku klesá.
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +4.06%) recent IPO was a massive success. However, serious questions remain about the company's outlook and its eventual ability to turn a profit. Much of that will depend on SpaceX's biggest growth driver, Starlink, which provides internet connectivity services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. But SpaceX could also make progress in its space segment, leading to much better margins and profits. And a potential milestone it could reach within 15 days will tell us more about whether SpaceX can meaningfully improve the economics of its space business.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's next-gen rocket SpaceX has transformed the space travel industry thanks to its pioneering work with reusable rockets. But there remains plenty of work to be done. The company's next-gen rocket, Starship, is currently in the test flight phase. Starship is central to SpaceX's long-term ambitions. Unlike the company's already highly successful Falcon 9 rocket, Starship was developed to be fully reusable. It could help decrease launch costs by 95% compared to Falcon 9. Starship is also much taller and has a much larger payload capacity.
SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, with the latest one introducing the newest version, dubbed V3, of the rocket. Right before the company's IPO about three weeks ago, SpaceX's COO, Gwynne Shotwell, said the 13th Starship flight test would take place in about a month -- which puts us at roughly mid-July at the latest. Shotwell also said she expects regular monthly flights for the rocket thereafter.
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Is SpaceX stock a buy? Another successful Starship flight test would bolster the bull case for SpaceX. However, there are reasons to remain skeptical about the company's future. Here are three of them. First, the company is not consistently profitable. In 2025, it posted a net loss of $4.9 billion, far worse than the $791 million in net income reported in 2024. Unprofitable companies can be attractive if their growth prospects look strong, which brings us to our second point: Average revenue per user (ARPU) within SpaceX's most important segment, Starlink, is declining. In the first quarter of 2026, Starlink's ARPU was $66, down from $86 in Q1 2025, and significantly lower than the $99 it recorded in 2023.
While Starlink subscribers continue to grow at a good clip, the declining ARPU may eventually lead to lower margins, especially as the company starts facing more competition and pricing pressure. One possible solution is for SpaceX to reduce the cost of launching LEO satellites. So the situation is by no means hopeless. Still, investors need to monitor Starlink's declining ARPU. Third, SpaceX might face significant regulatory headwinds over the long run, especially given that it relies on contracts from the U.S. federal government for 20% of its revenue.
So, what's the verdict? SpaceX could deliver life-changing returns if it can make significant progress with Starship and other initiatives, but the stock remains highly risky, especially at current levels. I'd wait for a major pullback before initiating a position.
SpaceX po krátkém růstu klesla na 147,55 USD za akcii, tedy pod debutní cenu 150 USD, a nyní čelí tlaku z ředění akcií i blížícího se uplynutí lock-upu. Další prodejní tlak může přijít po zveřejnění výsledků za 2. čtvrtletí a při dalších odemknutích akcií.
On Tuesday, June 23, its sixth full day of trading, the stock of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +1.36%), or SpaceX, briefly dipped to an all-time low of $147.55/share, below its debut price of $150/share. Since then, it hasn't closed above $157/share.
But is this price drop actually a buying opportunity in disguise? Here's what investors should know about SpaceX's prospects moving forward.
Image source: Getty Images.
Par for the course SpaceX's shares shot up to an intraday high of $176.52/share just after it began trading on Friday, June 12. Many observers thought that might be the high-water mark for the stock.
But SpaceX surprised everyone over the following two days as its stock price rocketed up to close at $211.39/share on Tuesday. This briefly put its market capitalization at $2.6 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth-largest company in the world. Analysts began to wonder if the classic trajectory of a hot IPO -- a brief Day 1 share price spike followed by a long, gradual decline -- didn't apply to SpaceX.
That dream was short-lived. The decline began the very next trading day, with shares eventually closing below $160/share on June 22, where they've mostly stayed since.
So, is now a good time to buy shares?
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SpaceX stock has a long road ahead of it There are two compelling reasons to stay away from SpaceX shares right now: dilution and lockup expiration.
Dilution comes from additional share issuances. SpaceX's recent agreement to acquire artificial intelligence developer Anysphere in a $60 billion all-stock deal already requires the issuance of about 400 million new shares. An additional preexisting deal for wireless spectrum will require the issuance of $11.1 billion in new shares in 2027. And various executive bonuses, stock options, settlements, and other awards totaling about $150 billion in new shares could be issued under certain conditions as well. These issuances will likely drive the share price lower.
Meanwhile, a healthy chunk of SpaceX's existing shares are currently on "lockup." Those shares will begin unlocking two trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, which is likely to occur in late July. Additional shares unlock throughout the year until the big 180-day lockup period expiration (for employees and most pre-IPO investors) on Dec. 8. Elon Musk's shares won't unlock until June 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Given widespread concerns about the company's sky-high valuation, there will be strong incentives for shareholders to sell their shares as soon as their lockups expire, which would put more near-term downward pressure on the stock.
In other words, if you want to buy and hold SpaceX shares for life, waiting at least until Dec. 9, after all those new shares have flooded the market, is likely to get you a better price than buying now. And waiting until 2027, when all shares are unlocked, and we'll have a year of quarterly numbers to help us evaluate the stock price, is probably an even smarter move.
SpaceX má 7. července vstoupit do Nasdaq-100, což má podle odhadů vyvolat asi 4,3 miliardy USD nucených nákupů ze strany pasivních fondů. Zároveň jedná s Charter Communications o backhaul pro Starlink Mobile.
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX will bypass traditional public market seasoning requirements to enter the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. This regulatory shift triggers an estimated $4.3 billion in forced institutional buying just weeks after the initial public offering. Paired with a rumored terrestrial backhaul partnership that positions Starlink Mobile to immediately challenge legacy telecom providers, SpaceX commands a near-term liquidity catalyst capable of temporarily overriding structural valuation headwinds.
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Index Gravity Squeeze: Front-Running the $4.3B Fast-TrackUsually, a newly public enterprise waits months or even years to join major market indexes. Nasdaq recently amended its eligibility framework, allowing mega-cap initial public offerings (IPO) to enter the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days. For SpaceX, a $2.10 trillion aerospace sector giant, this fast-track inclusion fundamentally alters the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics.
When a stock enters a major benchmark, passive funds tracking that index have no choice but to buy. These institutional funds do not evaluate price-to-sales ratios or profitability metrics. Their sole mandate is to replicate the index weight accurately.
SpaceX Today
$164.05 +10.82 (+7.06%)
As of 06/29/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$147.11▼
$225.64Price Target$212.67
J.P. Morgan modeling indicates that the July 7 reconstitution will require approximately $4.3 billion in mechanical passive inflows from benchmarked funds such as the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ. This incoming capital heavily compounds the estimated $3 billion SpaceX already absorbed from a recent fast-track inclusion into the Russell 1000 index.
This immense institutional buying pressure currently meets a structurally constrained supply of shares. Post-IPO lock-up agreements restrict early investors and executives from immediately liquidating their equity.
Approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale only after the first public earnings release on Aug. 6. The absence of this float severely restricts available liquidity leading into the July index event.
When billions of dollars of indiscriminate capital chase a capped share count, the resulting friction creates a highly predictable pre-inclusion price squeeze. Smart active managers often front-run these events, accumulating shares beforehand and forcing prices higher as the passive index funds scramble to secure their required allocations before the closing bell.
Ground Control to Charter CommunicationsBeyond the immediate mechanics of index arbitrage, a massive shift is occurring in how broadband and mobile data reach global consumers. Executive-level negotiations are reportedly advancing between SpaceX and Charter Communications Inc. NASDAQ: CHTR to route Starlink Mobile traffic through established terrestrial networks.
Understanding the significance of this move requires examining the massive capital expenditures required by traditional telecommunications. Legacy operators spend tens of billions of dollars laying fiber-optic cables and erecting cell towers to maintain their regional monopolies. Starlink Mobile aims to bypass much of this physical infrastructure by beaming connectivity directly from low Earth orbit to consumer devices. Space-to-ground data transmission requires foundational ground-based routing to handle heavy consumer traffic loads efficiently without severe latency.
Securing ground-based backhaul through a partner like Charter Communications allows Starlink to scale operations as a direct-to-consumer wireless provider instantly. SpaceX can challenge terrestrial network monopolies without bearing the prohibitive costs of building physical infrastructure.
This dual approach of dominating the orbital layer while piggybacking on existing terrestrial fiber rapidly accelerates the timeline for market capture against incumbent wireless carriers like Verizon NYSE: VZ and AT&T NYSE: T. The broader space infrastructure sector benefits heavily from these macro tailwinds as satellite broadband capabilities reach pricing and speed parity with legacy fiber networks, unlocking a massive new global subscriber base.
SpaceX Valuation Floats in the ExosphereAggressive physical and technological expansion requires monumental capital, and fixed-income markets are eager to fund it. SpaceX recently settled a five-tranche, $25 billion unsecured senior bond offering, stretching debt maturities out to 2056.
Institutional order books peaked near $90 billion, demonstrating robust willingness to finance heavy space-based capital expenditures. The proceeds explicitly retire a $20 billion bridge loan tied to earlier xAI infrastructure acquisitions, eliminating near-term maturity risk and securing a longer operational runway for massive satellite deployments.
Still, SpaceX’s current stock price reflects immense future expectations rather than current operational efficiency. At around $165 per share, the market capitalization sits at a towering $2.1 trillion. With annual sales of $19.3 billion, SpaceX commands a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 108. Investors are effectively paying roughly $108 for every single dollar of revenue SpaceX currently generates. Earnings data from May 7, prior to the public listing, showed a $1.27-per-share quarterly loss, contributing to an estimated $4.9 billion annual net deficit.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, June, 30, 2026
Institutional coverage is increasingly highlighting this fundamental disconnect between price action and core business metrics. Analysts at Morningstar explicitly labeled the $2 trillion valuation as stretched, assigning a much lower fair value of $780 billion. Argus Research recently initiated coverage with a cautious Hold rating.
These financial models warn of potential multiple compression once the Aug. 6 lock-up expires and restricted shares flood the open market. Bondholders are also scrutinizing the lack of current profitability, leading to slight weakness in secondary-market trading as credit spreads widen relative to risk-free Treasuries.
Brace for Re-Entry on August Lock-Up ExpirationThe immediate trajectory for SpaceX relies heavily on market mechanics rather than traditional earnings growth or deep value metrics. The $4.3 billion mandatory allocation from index trackers creates an undeniable short-term demand shock. Strategic investors often capitalize on this exact type of market structure, recognizing that forced institutional buying creates price inefficiencies that operate completely disconnected from fundamental valuation models.
Simultaneously, the broader space sector remains highly attractive as direct-to-device satellite communication transitions from a conceptual technology to a commercially viable reality. Strategic partnerships that provide terrestrial backhaul validate the Starlink business model and open up massive new addressable markets previously locked down by regional telecom providers.
Investors looking to navigate this specific environment might consider closely monitoring the daily trading volume leading up to the July 6 closing bell. The mechanics of index inclusion offer a clear, near-term liquidity catalyst for SpaceX, but cautious market participants may prefer to wait for the Aug. 6 lock-up expiration to assess how early insiders handle their newly liquid equity before committing long-term capital to the aerospace leader.
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SpaceX má tři kontrakty na AI výpočetní kapacitu, které dohromady přinášejí asi 2,32 miliardy USD měsíčně, tedy 27,8 miliardy USD ročně. To více než zdvojnásobuje jeho tržby.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%), better known as SpaceX, has three distinct parts of its business -- rocket launches, satellite internet, and the xAI artificial intelligence business. While the first two are certainly impressive, market-leading businesses, the AI division has produced the biggest headlines in recent months.
In fact, although xAI was the biggest drag on SpaceX's bottom line in 2025, it's starting to look like 2027 and beyond could be a very different story. Here's how SpaceX's new AI compute business has already more than doubled its revenue, where it could go from here, and why investors should pay attention.
Image source: Getty Images.
Three AI compute deals -- so far Here's a quick rundown of where SpaceX's AI compute business stands today. And keep in mind that all of this is revenue that didn't exist prior to its IPO:
First, Anthropic signed a deal to access more than 300 MW of compute capacity and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. This agreement brings in $1.25 billion per month for SpaceX through May 2029. That's $18 billion per year from this deal alone. Next, Google signed a compute deal that begins in October and runs through June 2029, giving the hyperscaler access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and is expected to generate $920 million in monthly revenue. Finally, the smallest of the three deals, but still a highly significant development, is a deal from fast-growing start-up Reflection AI to access Nvidia chips at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center for $150 per month. Combined, the three deals will provide about $2.32 billion in monthly revenue, or $27.8 billion annualized. Keep in mind that SpaceX's business -- including Starlink, the rocket launches, and xAI -- combined for $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. Even though Starlink and the rocket business continue to scale rapidly in 2026, this has more than doubled SpaceX's revenue.
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Not only has this generated revenue, but it's also an example of a savvy way to turn a problem (xAI was using only about 11% of its compute capacity for its own purposes) into a win.
Who could be next? SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 that it "expects to enter into additional similar services contracts for compute capacity with third parties," and while this statement was made before the most recent deals, it indicates that this business could be a big part of the company's AI future.
There's no way to know who might be next, but there's no shortage of potential compute customers. Other AI providers, such as OpenAI, are an obvious example, as are hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT 1.22%).
Of course, companies like Microsoft, Google, and others can (and do) build their own data centers -- that's a big portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures they've announced for 2026. But a capital-light approach (renting instead of owning) is likely starting to look more appealing, especially now that the AI build-out is scaling to the point where these companies are being forced to take on more debt and spend all of their free cash flow to keep up.
In addition to any of the other potential customers who will undoubtedly need more computing power in the future than they do today, it's also important to mention that there's certainly the possibility that the three existing customers could expand their deals over time. For example, Anthropic's business has grown tenfold in the past year, and if it continues to grow exponentially, the company's compute needs could get much larger.
Why is this so important? Not only have SpaceX's three AI compute deals more than doubled its revenue, but they could also be a big step forward in showing investors a path to profitability. In fact, the AI compute business has the potential to become the highest margin part of SpaceX. Consider that other GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV 1.54%) operate at gross margins near 70%, and in SpaceX's case, margins could be even higher as SpaceX's Colossus data centers were already built and were simply underutilized. Now, Starlink has excellent margins, but the AI compute business has massive potential for both top-line growth and producing billions in free cash flow.
To be clear, even with all of this in mind, SpaceX is still not a cheap stock. Even if the company's revenue run rate reaches $50 billion by the end of 2026, it will still be valued at about 40 times sales (based on the current stock price) and will lack any established track record of profitability. So, I'm not saying that SpaceX is a buy based on its AI compute business itself. There's a lot that will need to go well throughout its business to ultimately justify the current valuation.
Having said that, the progress in the AI compute business has been impressive to say the least. If SpaceX can continue to build it out, it could be a big win for the company and its investors.
SpaceX vydala dluhopisy za 25 miliard USD a poptávka byla obrovská, téměř 90 miliard USD v objednávkách. Emise ale vyvolala obavy z vysokých kapitálových výdajů a budoucího refinancování.
SpaceX's $25 billion foray into debt markets appeared to be well received by bond markets last week, with huge demand for the offering.
But one of the biggest-ever AI bond issuances, less than two weeks after SpaceX's IPO, has highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations — and posed a diversification challenge for investors.
Why SpaceX tapped debt marketsThe group tapped debt markets on June 22, announcing a senior unsecured notes offering, with sources telling CNBC that the company was looking to raise $20 billion, which was then increased to $25 billion. The company said it would use the net proceeds to "repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full, to pay related fees and expenses, and any remaining amount for general corporate purposes."
SpaceX stock soared after its hotly-anticipated IPO. Last week's debt issuance dented investor confidence.
SpaceX received nearly $90 billion worth of orders, people familiar with the fundraising previously told CNBC. They asked not to be named because the details are private.
But the move appeared to unnerve equity investors, with SpaceX falling more than 13% for the week after a strong post-IPO run.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said SpaceX will increasingly have to "work hard to make itself heard," adding there are plenty of offerings from more profitable concerns that can steal the limelight.
"Equity investors are one thing, but bond guys are the grown-ups in the room," Beauchamp told CNBC via email. "SpaceX might find it has its work cut out for it, but I suspect the market can absorb the issuance overall."
"The timing certainly isn't great, but we have seen brief bouts of panic like this before, and the wagon tends to roll onwards in the end."
Christopher Della Fave, senior vice president, capital markets at Post Oak Group, said: "Two weeks after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX is already tapping debt markets while carrying a $5 billion net loss and capex that more than doubled year over year."
Why SpaceX bonds raise diversification questionsDella Fave said SpaceX's losses and high capital expenditure aren't "alarming" in isolation, as "capital-intensive growth companies run hot."
However, he highlighted "the structural issue" that "investors aren't pricing in."
"Owning SPCX equity and SpaceX bonds isn't diversification," Della Fave added. "It's the same execution risk across two instruments."
"Starlink has to scale. Starship has to work. Both the equity story and the debt service depend on it. For portfolio construction, we treat total SpaceX exposure as a single concentrated position regardless of instrument, the same way you'd approach any single-name technology bet dressed up as a multi-asset allocation."
SpaceX's multi-billion-dollar debt issuance means many investors have become exposed to the group via two different asset classes – equities, via its blockbuster IPO on June 12 – and now, corporate bonds.
"Nearly all investors already hold allocations to US technology and the purpose of bonds as an asset class is surely to diversify," Julian Howard, multi-asset head at Gam, told CNBC on Friday.
He pointed out that SpaceX's 10-year issue is trading at a relatively tight spread to the equivalent U.S. Treasury of 1.4 percentage points.
In the debt sale, SpaceX priced bonds in five different tranches, with notes due between 2031 and 2056. Rates vary from 5.35% for the 2031 bonds to 6.65% for the 2056 notes.
"While that is comfortably ahead of inflation, the risk will be that spreads will widen if there is any hint of SpaceX not meeting its ambitious revenue targets, or if the outlook for tech and AI falters in any way," he added.
In the long term, SpaceX faces two big challenges in the markets, said Morningstar chief investment officer Mike Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetize gains," he told CNBC.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
SpaceX otestovala Starfall, znovupoužitelnou návratovou kapsli pro až 1 tunu nákladu z oběžné dráhy. Firma ji cílí na vojenskou logistiku i návrat materiálů z mikrogravitace.
On Tuesday, June 23, a SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying a vehicle most people had never heard of. The payload was called Starfall -- a disc-shaped reentry pod, 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall, designed to carry up to 1 metric ton of cargo from low-Earth orbit back to Earth's surface.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) described it publicly as a "microgravity lab" for scientific research and in-space manufacturing. What the Federal Aviation Administration's environmental assessment called it was more specific: a vehicle to "enable point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines."
Image source: Getty Images.
Those two descriptions are both accurate, and the gap between them is where the investor story lives.
The vehicle is not capable of de-orbiting itself. It relies on its launch vehicle -- a Falcon 9 today, potentially Starship later -- to guide it back toward the atmosphere, after which it orients its heat shield using compressed nitrogen gas and descends by parachute to a splashdown zone. It's smaller than SpaceX's Crew Dragon, built exclusively for cargo, and recoverable -- SpaceX intends to retrieve the vehicle and its parachutes for reuse.
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Two markets to pay attention to Two markets emerge immediately from that design profile. The first is military logistics. The Pentagon has been working toward a space-based point-to-point cargo delivery capability for years. In 2022, the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded SpaceX a $102 million contract to demonstrate the concept using Starship -- the ability to deliver roughly a C-17 Globemaster's worth of supplies anywhere on the planet in under 90 minutes. Starfall, smaller and deployable on the existing Falcon 9, is a complementary tool for lighter, more targeted deliveries that don't require Starship's enormous footprint or a prepared landing site. The Pentagon has signed similar early-stage agreements with Rocket Lab (RKLB +4.67%), Blue Origin, and Anduril for reentry vehicle development. SpaceX is the only company flying a working vehicle today.
The second market is commercial in-space manufacturing, and it's further along than most people realize. Varda Space Industries signed a partnership with United Therapeutics in May 2026 to manufacture drugs in microgravity -- specifically targeting small-molecule crystallization processes that Earth's gravity renders structurally imperfect. Varda CEO Will Bruey put the economics plainly at the 2026 Upfront Summit: A launch capable of processing space-manufactured drugs and returning them to Earth now costs roughly $2.2 million -- a number that makes pharmaceutical microgravity viable at commercial scale for the first time. Starfall, with its 1-metric-ton payload capacity and reusable design, is positioned as the return infrastructure that makes that supply chain possible at volume.
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This is where SpaceX's structural advantage over every competitor in this space becomes relevant to investors. Rocket Lab is targeting a 2026 demonstration of reentry capability on its Neutron rocket -- which has not yet flown. Blue Origin is earlier in the development process. Inversion Space received a $71 million contract for its Arc reentry vehicle, which remains in development. SpaceX flew Starfall on Tuesday. That lead time matters in a market where government procurement decisions follow demonstrated capability, not road maps.
The military's REGAL program -- Rocket Experimentation for Global Agile Logistics -- has explicitly framed point-to-point space cargo as a pathway to becoming a program of record, meaning recurring annual defense budget line items rather than one-time research and development (R&D) grants. SpaceX's $102 million AFRL contract was the first significant step in that direction. Starfall's successful demonstration puts the company in a position to substantially expand that relationship.
What this means for SPCX shareholders -- or those interested in investing Here is where the honest qualification belongs. Starfall's commercial potential is real, but the timelines are long, and the revenue is not yet material on SpaceX's financials. The company's near-term revenue story is Starlink, which generated $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 and remains the only profitable segment. Even in an optimistic scenario where it wins military contracts and becomes the backbone of orbital pharmaceutical manufacturing, Starfall adds revenue on a multiyear timeline.
For investors looking at SpaceX in a week when the stock has already fallen nearly 30% from its peak due to valuation and float concerns, Starfall is the kind of development that validates the long-term thesis without changing the short-term math.
It is also worth saying plainly: None of this is new. SpaceX has been demonstrating breakthrough capability for years, and investors who needed Tuesday's test to feel confident in the underlying technology were perhaps not paying close enough attention. SpaceX is building real technology that solves real problems.
The question that was true before Tuesday and remains true after it is whether the current price -- which sits 53% above Morningstar's base-case intrinsic value -- gives investors enough room for execution risk on programs that haven't yet generated meaningful revenue.
The technology is not what's in question. The valuation still is.
SpaceX became one of the quickest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, setting up a fresh wave of buying from passive investors less than a month after the company's blockbuster public debut.
Nasdaq announced after the close Friday whether SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index. Assuming the company meets the requirements, index-tracking funds and other product sponsors would begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which is one of the most popular securities traded each day and is seen as a barometer for the artificial intelligence bull market.
The aerospace and satellite company is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Adding SpaceX this quickly would make the Elon Musk company one of the first beneficiaries of Nasdaq's recently adopted fast-track inclusion framework for newly public companies. The changes allow some large IPOs to become eligible for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, dramatically shortening what had historically been a far longer waiting period.
Under the previous framework, investors tracking the Nasdaq-100 could be forced to wait months before gaining exposure to newly listed market giants.
The inclusion could create another source of demand for SpaceX, which has been one of the most actively traded stocks since its June 12 debut. Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 would need to buy shares to match the benchmark's new composition, while active managers who track the index closely might also adjust positions.
Because SpaceX's publicly tradable float remains small compared with its total market capitalization, even a modest index weighting could require meaningful purchases from passive investment vehicles.
Earlier this month, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to create a similar fast-track process for the S&P 500. Therefore, SpaceX remains ineligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 because of that index's separate profitability and seasoning requirements.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is considering launching a Starlink-branded mobile phone service in the United States, according to a Financial Times report published on Friday, potentially expanding the company's role in the telecommunications market.
The report cited comments from SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell during a recent investor roadshow, where she reportedly discussed plans for a direct-to-consumer wireless offering and the possibility of building a terrestrial mobile network in the US.
SpaceX currently works with T-Mobile to provide direct-to-cell satellite connectivity aimed at extending coverage to remote areas. A standalone mobile service would place the Elon Musk-led company in more direct competition with established wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.
According to the Financial Times, SpaceX has told investors that a retail Starlink mobile product could allow the company to capture a larger share of customer revenue by combining satellite capabilities with terrestrial wireless infrastructure.
The company strengthened its wireless spectrum holdings through acquisitions of EchoStar licenses totaling about $19.6 billion, including a roughly $17 billion purchase in September 2025 and an additional $2.6 billion transaction in November.
Starlink has more than 10 million subscribers worldwide and has become a key contributor to SpaceX's record valuation.
Shares of SpaceX traded hands at $153 on Friday, after debuting at $135 per share on June 12.
SpaceX se po pátečním uzavření obchodování přidá do indexů Russell, což může vyvolat nákupy za téměř 3 miliardy USD a zvýšit volatilitu akcie. Titul už po vstupu na burzu prudce kolísá.
SpaceX logo as an employe looks at his phone while making his way to work at the company’s facility on the day of the SpaceX IPO, in Hawthorne, California, U.S. June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mike... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
June 26 (Reuters) - Even by SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab standards, Friday is shaping up as an eventful trading session as investment funds tracking Russell indexes prepare to add billions of dollars' worth of Elon Musk's internet and rocket company to their holdings.
After a blockbuster initial public offering this month, SpaceX's stock has been on a wild ride, soaring 67% to its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 before tumbling to Thursday's $153 close.
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The stock remains well above the $135 IPO price as investors assess how to value a company that lost $4.9 billion last year, but that backers expect to dominate the satellite internet, AI and commercial space launch markets that they believe will define the next decade of global infrastructure.
FTSE Russell will add SpaceX to its Russell U.S. indexes after Friday's close of trading as part of its semi-annual index reconstitution. That means passively managed exchange-traded funds that track Russell indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB.P), opens new tab, will have to add SpaceX shares to their portfolios. The event will likely take place in a narrow window toward market close on Friday as fund managers attempt to minimize the "tracking error" between their funds' performance and the index that can result if their buy-in price differs from the closing price.
While SpaceX's $2 trillion market capitalization makes it almost as valuable as Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, only about $100 billion of shares have been listed for trading on the stock market, with the rest owned by Musk, other insiders and employees. Passively managed funds will need to buy almost $3 billion worth of SpaceX shares to match the Russell indexes they track, Jefferies estimated in a report this month. That could mean a squeeze as Friday's closing auction approaches, though options positioning appeared muted.
SpaceX options contracts set to expire on Friday are priced for a share price swing of 3.6% in either direction by the end of the week, Trade Alert data showed.
SpaceX is also set to be added to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab in July, an event that will force large index funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks that index, to buy its shares.
Following its losses in recent sessions, SpaceX is trading at 107 times its 2025 sales, an astronomical valuation. By comparison, AI heavyweight chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab recently traded at 21 times sales.
S&P Global blocked SpaceX from joining the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab after it said this month it would not change its inclusion criteria to accommodate megacap IPOs. To be included in the S&P 500, a company must be profitable in its most recent quarter as well as for the sum of its most recent four quarters, according to one of the rules S&P left unchanged.
The S&P 500 addition in 2020 of another Musk company, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, resulted in a closing squeeze that sent shares up 6%.
Reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; editing by Colin Barr, Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
San Francisco correspondent covering the stock market with a focus on Big Tech, semiconductors and other Silicon Valley companies
SpaceX po IPO zažívá prudké výkyvy, když akcie po úvodním růstu o více než 60 % následně spadly až o 16 %. Retailoví investoři v prvních pěti obchodních seancích nakoupili čistě za 405 milionů USD.
This report is from this week's The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Rollercoaster. That's probably the most accurate word to describe SpaceX's opening two weeks as a public company.
The stock surged for several successive days following a record-breaking IPO, briefly overtaking both Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market cap and rising more than 60% on the initial share offering price of $135.
But the good times weren't set to last. Daily drops of 5% and 4% were followed by a 16% slump as jitters crept into the market. Steadier days followed, with single point moves in either direction.
The volatility underscores the whipsaw nature of a story-driven stock.
Lofty sci-fi ambitions, huge coverage in the *ahem* media and a founder with a cult-like following whipped up a frenzy of excitement around the company.
"Most stocks trade based on how their multiple of earnings compares to other comparable stocks," Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told me.
"Elon Musk companies don't really do that." Musk's ventures instead trade on expectations, he added.
"Tesla trades more on [autonomous driving service] Robotaxi and [humanoid robot] Optimus than they do on selling cars, and SpaceX trades more on the promise of Mars exploration, or at least data centers in space," said Luria.
Retail investors bought into that forward-looking narrative in droves.
SpaceX "embodies many of the qualities that have historically resonated with retail investors: a transformational technology story, a bold vision of the future, a celebrity founder and unparalleled media attention," Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda, said.
In the first five trading sessions, retail investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX shares, comfortably the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history, said research firm Vanda.
"For SpaceX, the 'cult of Elon' pulls in more retail investors and adds extra hype that can add a lot to volatility as we saw with Tesla share prices," Mike Coop, chief investment officer, EMEA at Morningstar Wealth, told me. Morningstar analysts caused a stir in the run-up to SpaceX's IPO, writing that the stock was worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion target.
After a bullish initial few days on the public markets, fundamentals became a bigger driver of the price causing a "hangover," said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Musk has been, in a somewhat predictable fashion, touting sky-high revenue growth in years to come. He said on June 14 that the company "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion revenue in 2030.
That would mark a huge jump from the $18.7 billion in revenue SpaceX made in 2025. The company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, and it lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Long term SpaceX faces two big challenges on the markets, said Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetise gains," he said.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
Despite that, so far few have been willing to bet against the stock.
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame said on June 16 that he has no position in SpaceX, and argued that options used to wager against the stock remain too expensive even as he questioned the company's nearly $3 trillion market value.
And while SpaceX is seeing some interest from short sellers, many are still reluctant to bet against Musk.
Time will tell how far narrative takes SpaceX stock. In any case, expect more twists and turns on the rollercoaster.
Latest updatesAnthropic is racing to increase its AI compute capacity in the Asia-Pacific region, as the company scrambles to keep up with soaring demand for its products.
OpenAI and Broadcom on Wednesday unveiled their debut custom chip, called Jalapeño, marking the ChatGPT maker's first entry into artificial intelligence silicon.
A second worker has died at the construction site of BYD's electric vehicle factory in Szeged, Hungary, CNBC has learned.
Apple on Thursday announced price hikes on MacBooks and iPads, its first formal move to pass higher memory and storage costs on to consumers after CEO Tim Cook said increases had become unavoidable.
ON Semiconductor has agreed to buy Synaptics in a nearly $7 billion all-stock deal to bolster its push into physical artificial intelligence technology.
Stock of the week
Micron stock.
Memory chipmaker Micron had a good week as its third-quarter results topped analysts' estimates.
The U.S. company has been one of the main beneficiaries of the AI boom, with its stock price up more than 800% over the past year, lifting the company's market cap past $1 trillion.
SpaceX plánuje příští měsíc začít stavět 8mílové potrubí Starpipe do texaských zařízení pro starty Starship. Potrubí má být v provozu do 26. ledna a má urychlit starty rakety.
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to start building 8-mile pipeline next monthProject would fuel more launches of Starship moon rocketPipeline is part of sprawling SpaceX gas plans in TexasWASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile (13-km) natural gas pipeline called "Starpipe" to its Texas launch facilities, according to county filings, as Elon Musk’s company seeks to ramp up launches of its next‑generation Starship rocket.
Starpipe, which will end at SpaceX’s Texas company town of Starbase, is expected to be in service by January 26, according to a document filed last month with the Texas Railroad Commission by SpaceX affiliate Lone Star Mineral Development and reviewed by Reuters.
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The pipeline plan, previously reported by Rio Grande Valley Business Journal, signals Musk's intent to accelerate Starship's development and lay the groundwork for a faster flight rate. The 40‑story rocket is central to SpaceX’s push to expand its Starlink broadband network, deploy orbital AI data center satellites, and eventually carry astronauts to the moon and Mars.
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons (2.4 million liters) of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds and eventually thousands of launches a year.
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX'S BIG GAS PLANSThough it is unusual for a space company to build its own natural gas pipeline for launchpad fuel, Starpipe might only be an initial step in a longer-term plan for SpaceX, which has spent years exploring its own drilling operations near Starbase and throughout Texas, according to a Reuters review of Cameron County land records.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on June 12, when the company went public, that the company planned to build pipelines and process its own propellant, and was looking into drilling its own natural gas.
Extracting natural gas would be a challenging pursuit for a company with no oil and gas experience, said Stan Lindsey, an oil and gas consultant in Texas.
“I’m not saying it's beyond the realm of possibility … it’s possible they got a really nice prospect," Lindsey said. But if those drilling plans fall short, he added, “they’ve got a fallback position” with Starpipe.
SpaceX has signed over 100 paid-up oil and gas leases with Texas property owners since 2023, the land records show.
Starpipe would begin on an 83-acre (34-hectare) piece of land at the Port of Brownsville that SpaceX is in talks to lease from the city for 50 years, a port official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.
Engineering plans SpaceX filed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included in a public notice issued last August, show SpaceX wants to build a liquefaction facility at Starbase to process the piped-in natural gas into liquid methane.
"Certainly that would make the most efficient sense," said William Farrar, a longtime oil and gas lawyer in Texas and geoscientist.
The company could tap into Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline expansion project that would run close to Starpipe's start point, Lindsey said.
Enbridge did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX WANTS TO OWN SUPPLY CHAINSpaceX's move into gas infrastructure, typically the domain of energy and pipeline firms, underscores its longstanding strategy of controlling as much of its supply chain as possible, a capital‑intensive approach that has helped the company outpace rivals in rocket and spacecraft development.
The effort positions SpaceX to manage an unusually broad chain of resources, stretching from natural gas deep beneath Earth's surface to the moon, where Musk wants to use lunar material for AI‑focused satellite production, an ambitious and untested goal.
The pipeline’s 16‑inch (406-mm) diameter suggests fuel demand exceeding what Starship would require for 25 launches, the annual cadence currently approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.
SpaceX ultimately aims to deploy thousands of solar‑powered, AI‑focused satellites whose combined energy output could approach one-fifth of the U.S. power grid, according to its initial public offering prospectus.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Joe Brock and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.88%) is in the spotlight for all the right reasons. It just completed the largest initial public offering in history, having raised $75 billion by offering 555 million shares at $135 each plus another $10.7 billion from the underwriters that exercised their options to buy more shares. However, the number of shares available for public trading is still tiny relative to SpaceX's over $2 trillion market cap.
The company's float could increase to as much as 37% in late August. But until then, there's a supply-demand crunch on the stock, which is contributing to its volatility. SpaceX is already down big from its intraday high of $225.64, although as of the close of trading Tuesday, it was still up 4% from its initial trading price of $150 per share.
While long-term investors may not appreciate the volatility or the financial engineering of SpaceX's public market debut, they may be intrigued by the company's bold plans to launch millions of artificial intelligence (AI) data center satellites into orbit.
Here's why SpaceX is betting big on orbital data centers, and if the growth stock is a great buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A different type of SpaceX satellite SpaceX isn't profitable, but it has multiple levers that it could pull to unlock growth over the next several decades and beyond. It conducted around 80% of U.S. space launches in 2025 and exited that year with 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit. It owns xAI, the social media platform X, and could deploy millions of AI compute satellites -- which SpaceX says would actually be easier to manufacture than Starlink satellites because they won't need to have complex antennas.
The company's first AI satellite design features a 70-meter wingspan and a deployed height of 20 meters. By comparison, the majority of Starlink satellites in orbit are second-generation V2 Mini satellites, which are just 4.1 meters by 2.7 meters. The bigger issue is the added payload weight: AI satellites' compute clusters will have a lot of mass, making them significantly more expensive to launch.
Additionally, SpaceX plans to launch its AI compute satellites into a higher-altitude sun-synchronous orbit. This will make solar power generation predictable. However, it will also make the massive AI satellites more visible at night than most Starlink satellites.
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Satellite manufacturing on an unprecedented scale SpaceX says it aims to have 1 gigawatt (GW) of AI compute satellites in orbit by the end of 2027, then scale that by an order of magnitude in the subsequent three years, reaching 10 GW by the end of 2028, 100 GW by the end of 2029, and 1 terawatt (1,000 GW) by the end of 2030. At a peak output of 150 kW per satellite based on its AI1 satellite design, that would mean 6,667 satellites at 1 GW, 66,667 satellites at 10 GW, 666,667 satellites at 100 GW, and then a mind-numbing 6.67 million satellites at 1 terawatt. To describe that as ambitious would be an understatement.
To get there, SpaceX is building a more than 11-million-square-foot factory it has dubbed "Gigasat" in Bastrop, Texas, which is just outside Austin. Situated on a more than 1,000-acre site, that factory will handle end-to-end production of AI compute satellites, from the solar panels that will power them to the electronic components and satellite assembly.
Tesla (TSLA 0.45%) investors will be familiar with CEO Elon Musk's preference for vertically integrated manufacturing. Expanding beyond its Fremont, California, factory to large-scale production centers (Gigafactories) in Nevada, New York, Texas, Shanghai, and Germany was an integral part of the strategy that allowed Tesla to grow into a major global automaker. However, Tesla was expanding production while facing the scrutiny that all public companies must accept. Plus, it was capital-constrained and relied heavily on scaling up its Model 3 production to boost cash flow and fund its manufacturing expansion.
SpaceX has a massive advantage in that it is already worth more than Tesla and should have no problem turning to capital markets to raise capital, whether by issuing debt or selling more equity. SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025, yet the market doesn't seem to care, given its growth potential.
In sum, Tesla was consistently trying to prove to public markets that electric vehicles could be profitable and disrupt the automotive industry, whereas SpaceX has a first-mover advantage in a new niche of the data center market where it faces virtually no direct competitors.
AI satellite constellations are far from a sure bet Investors are giving SpaceX the green light to think big on a cosmic scale. Investors buying SpaceX today probably care way more about its timeline for launching AI compute satellites into space rather than the costs of its path to profitability.
But SpaceX will undoubtedly run into challenges along the way to deploying its constellation of satellites. And as the quarters tick by, investor patience could be tested -- especially during market sell-offs or if there's a slowdown in AI spending.
All told, there's no rush to buy SpaceX right now, at a time when sentiment is overwhelmingly positive and investor enthusiasm is through the roof. The better approach would be to keep SpaceX on your watch list and monitor its progress on constructing Gigasat and getting its first AI satellites launched into space. If its big idea pays off, SpaceX will deserve to be worth much more than it is today. But at this time, that's a big "if."
SpaceX prodala dluhopisy za 25 miliard USD a podle CNBC dorazily objednávky téměř za 90 miliard USD. Desetileté dluhopisy nesly výnos jen o 1,4 procentního bodu nad americkými státními dluhopisy.
CNBC’s Becky Quick reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) tapped the bond market for $25 billion in a sale that priced less than two weeks after its record-breaking IPO. The deal landed at terms typically reserved for the highest-quality corporate borrowers, signaling that fixed-income investors are willing to lend to the newly public space, connectivity, and AI company on terms close to those granted to America’s most established blue-chip companies.
SpaceX Had $90 Billion of Orders for the $25 Billion Debt Raise According to Quick, the financing was priced across five tranches with 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30-year maturities. The benchmark 10-year notes were priced at just 1.4 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, an unusually tight spread for a company that only recently began trading publicly. For context, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51% on June 22, 2026, near the upper end of its 12-month range that spanned 3.97% to 4.67%.
People familiar with the fundraising told CNBC that the sale drew close to $90 billion in orders, well in excess of the $25 billion offered. SpaceX said the proceeds will be used to repay a bridge loan and fund other corporate purposes, shifting the capital structure from short-term bridge financing toward a layered ladder of long-dated debt.
The Credit Market Is Treating SpaceX Like a Blue-Chip Company The 1.4 percentage point spread on the 10-year tranche is the headline number for credit investors. Spreads in that neighborhood are typically associated with single-A or strong triple-B issuers with long, predictable cash flow histories. SpaceX is a brand-new public reporting company whose valuation, as The Atlantic recently put it, looks “untethered from traditional corporate finance metrics.” The willingness of bond buyers to take that spread and submit roughly $90 billion in orders against a $25 billion book indicates the credit market is treating the company as a strategic infrastructure operator rather than a speculative growth name.
That framing aligns with how Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski has described the business, arguing investors are underestimating SpaceX by viewing it solely as an aerospace firm when its multi-platform footprint spans launch operations, communications, defense, and AI connectivity. The company’s Starlink network, powered by approximately 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, now delivers service across 164 countries, territories, and other markets, and the company has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023. That kind of recurring, infrastructure-like revenue base is exactly what fixed-income desks look for when underwriting investment-grade paper.
The Stock Has Slumped, But the Bond Market Isn’t Worried The bond market’s enthusiasm contrasts with how SPCX has traded since its debut. The IPO priced at $135 and peaked at over $225 before retreating. Shares were trading near $153.57 in early action on June 24, after a 22.64% slide over the prior week. The pullback has not dented the company’s status as one of the most valuable issuers on the NASDAQ, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.16 trillion.
What to Watch Next For stockholders, the debt raise removes a near-term overhang by extending the bridge loan and locking in financing across a 5- to 30-year maturity ladder. For credit investors, the combination of a 1.4 percentage-point 10-year spread and roughly $90 billion in demand suggests the institutional credit market has already made up its mind, even as public equity traders continue to debate the right valuation for the company.
Analytik Oppenheimer Tim Horan ponechal pro SpaceX doporučení ke koupi a cílovou cenu 250 USD, zároveň mluví o ocenění 10 bilionů USD za pět let. Klíčem má být Starlink a rozvoj Starship.
Tim Horan, Oppenheimer’s satellite and AI infrastructure analyst, went on CNBC Monday to defend a price target that sounds absurd until you back into the math. He kept his buy rating and $250 price target on SpaceX as the stock fell in its third consecutive session of decline, and floated a five-year valuation of $10 trillion. For context, that would make SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) worth roughly the GDP of Germany and Japan combined.
The stock is having a rough debut. Shares are at $158, down from $192.50 a week earlier, and CNBC noted the average post-IPO buyer is almost underwater after the slide, with the five-day volume-weighted average sitting near $181. Tuesday brought a 5.34% bounce to $162.86, but Reddit has spent the past week dissecting threads with titles like “The math isn’t mathing on the SpaceX IPO” and “SPCX – Beware, institutional money is NOT buying this trash on the open market”. Horan is leaning into that doubt.
The vertical integration thesis What SpaceX is, in Horan’s framing, is no longer a launch company. “The company we think has doubled their valuation in the last six months by entering the AI market,” he told CNBC, “and we think they’re going to continue to do incredibly creative things.” The pivot point was the early-2026 acquisition of xAI, which folded Grok and its X-platform integration into SpaceX as a core business pillar.
That repositioning matters because of what Horan thinks the addressable market looks like. “They think AI is a $25 trillion TAM, and they are the only vertically integrated company that can attack every segment of this and really disrupt an awful lot of industries,” he said. Then the part that sounds like science fiction. “SpaceX is making their own solar panels. They want to make their own chips… build a fab that will create five times the amount of chips that the whole world is producing.”
Take that claim with appropriate skepticism. But the underlying point survives even if the fab is half that size. SpaceX already controls the launch stack. It launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit annually since 2023, with Falcon rockets at over 99% mission success. Owning the rockets, the satellites, the ground network, the AI model, and eventually the chips is exactly the moat the bull case requires.
Starlink as the funding engine The cash to fund all of this is supposed to come from Starlink. “We think Starlink will be worth roughly $1 trillion,” Horan said. “Over the next 5 to 10 years they’re going to increase capacity a hundred fold. They already have about 12 million broadband subscribers globally. We think they could easily support a couple of hundred million.”
Moreover, the constellation is already enormous. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink served customers across 164 countries through roughly 9,600 low-Earth-orbit satellites, with a satellite-to-mobile layer extending coverage to about 30 countries. There is also a quietly compelling tailwind. A recent GAO assessment noted the Department of Energy projects data centers will account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028, driven by AI, and that since January 2026 the FCC has received three applications from U.S. companies for large satellite constellations operating as orbital data centers. If compute migrates toward orbit, the company that owns cheap heavy-lift launch capacity collects rent from everyone.
What can go wrong Horan named the near-term risk himself. “Short term it’s really getting the starship to work. We need the starship to kind of get the new communications satellites up.” Without Starship reaching reliable operational cadence, the hundredfold Starlink capacity expansion does not happen, and the $1 trillion in revenue Musk has targeted stays a slide.
For investors, the gap between Horan’s view and market consensus shows in the price action itself. SpaceX, registered with the SEC, currently trades around $158, well off its 52-week high of $225.64. The Atlantic this week described the stock as “a financial instrument for Musk, a meme, and a testament to the irrationality of the modern stock market.” Horan’s $250 target and $10 trillion long-term call assume the meme grows into the moat. The next twelve Starship launches will settle the argument.
SpaceX čeká první uvolnění akcií koncem července nebo začátkem srpna, kdy mohou insideri a raní investoři začít prodávat. To může zvýšit tlak na pokles po přehřátém růstu po vstupu na burzu.
SpaceX (SPCX 0.05%) has taken investors on a wild ride since its June 12 IPO. The aerospace and AI company went public at $135 per share, started trading at $150, and soared to a record high of $225.64 on June 16. But as of this writing, it trades at about $160.
SpaceX's stock pulled back because its valuation had gotten overheated. At its peak, its market cap briefly hit $2.66 trillion, or 142 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. It also only floated about 4% of its shares in its IPO, and that limited supply amplified its gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
Yet after that pullback, SpaceX is still worth $2.06 trillion, or 110 times last year's sales. That's a bubbly valuation for a company that grew its revenue by 33% in 2025. While market hype and rosy expectations could prevent its stock from dipping below its IPO price, it could face a reckoning once its lockup periods start to expire in about a month.
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When will SpaceX's lockup periods expire? When a company goes public, its insiders, early investors, and institutional investors are barred from selling their shares immediately. Instead, they generally need to wait until the traditional 180-day "lockup period" ends before they can sell those shares.
However, that's not a firm rule -- so companies can structure their lockup periods in different ways. Instead of waiting for 180 days, SpaceX will allow its insiders and early investors to sell their shares in several waves. The first wave will occur on the second trading day after its second-quarter earnings report in late July or early August.
On that day, SpaceX will unlock 20% of its shares held by its employees and early pre-IPO holders. If its stock closed at or above $175.50 per share for at least five of the ten consecutive days before the earnings release, it will unlock another 10% of its shares. It will continue to unlock 7% of its shares on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24.
On the second trading day after its third-quarter earnings report in late October or early November, it will unlock 28% of its shares. On Dec. 8, it will unlock all of its remaining shares.
Why should investors watch these dates? SpaceX's stock could decline on those lockup dates as its insiders and early investors cash out. That selling could make it much easier and cheaper to short the stock. Therefore, if you believe SpaceX has a bright future but don't want to pay the wrong price for the right stock, those lockup expirations could create some good buying opportunities.
