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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +5.62%) reports quarterly results tomorrow, Aug. 4, after the market closes. It's the first time the company will do so after its high-profile June IPO. These may be the most closely watched earnings of the year so far.

SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, raising, in total, a staggering $85.7 billion. Shares were priced at $135, closed the first day at $160.95, and ran as high as $225.64 just days later.

That’s not been the story since. Shares have fallen more than 50% from their peak and are now trading around $111, headed into tomorrow’s earnings.

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So, what does Wall Street expect from SpaceX? And what should you be paying attention to beyond the headline numbers?

What Wall Street expects from SpaceX's first earnings reportThe Wall Street consensus is currently set at $6.82 billion in revenue with a non-GAAP loss of $0.23 per share.

You should know that these are very rough estimates. As one Cantor Fitzgerald analyst put it, the “quarter likely suffers from an extreme estimate skew.” That’s analyst speak for Wall Street isn’t quite sure what to expect.

Here’s a look at the company’s most recent performance, broken down by segment.

SegmentQ1 2026 revenueQ1 2026 operating income (loss)Connectivity (Starlink)$3.26 billion$1.19 billionSpace (rockets)$619 million($662 million)AI (Grok, X, data centers)$818 million($2.47 billion)Source: Company Filings

Four things I'm watching beyond the headline numbersOK, here’s what I think you should look out for.

First, cash. Earnings figures, especially ones like earnings before interest, taxes, amortization, and depreciation (EBITDA), can often be a bit misleading. Cash statements reveal a more direct vision of the company’s present financial reality, in my view, especially for businesses that require a whole lot of capital expenditures (capex).

SpaceX generated $1 billion in operating cash flow last quarter -- the cash the business itself produced -- but free cash flow (FCF), the money left over after it also pays for things like equipment and construction, came in at negative $9.1 billion. Pay close attention to this figure.

Second, AI. Now, this is closely related to the first. The AI division was reportedly burning about $1 billion a month last quarter. Massive investment with little revenue. This is likely to look much different given its recent deals with Anthropic and Google. Will these deals make AI a profitable enterprise?

Third, Starlink. This is the company’s financial heart, and its success is critical for SpaceX as a whole. While revenue growth, earnings, and customer growth will all be important to pay attention to, what I’m really interested in is average revenue per user (ARPU). This is an important figure for the long-term vision of Starlink. Is the company sacrificing ARPU for growth?

And finally, Starship. The new rocket is foundational to SpaceX’s growth plans, a cornerstone of its vision for the future. So, I’m extremely interested in any operational developments here. How close are we to full commercial deployment?

Wall Street is, by and large, very bullish on this oneThe consensus among Wall Street is currently a buy with an average 12-month price target of $293, which is quite an upside. Take a look below at a sampling of the Street’s targets; you’ll see that there are definitely some outliers in the bunch, one extremely bullish, the other bearish.

FirmAnalystRatingPrice TargetRaymond JamesBrian GesualeStrong Buy$800Morgan StanleyAdam JonasOverweight$300Deutsche BankEdison YuBuy$255J.P. MorganDoug AnmuthOverweight$225CFRAKeith SnyderSell$115Source: Google Finance

This week promises to be another eventful one on the earnings front with one of the big-time reports being the first from Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX). The newly public rockets and satellites company steps into the earnings confessional for the first time on August 4, after the close of U.S. markets.

It could be an ideal time for Elon Musk’s company to allay some investor concerns, and the perfect opportunity for aggressive short-term traders to consider the newly minted Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2X ETF (LOFF). LOFF, which came to market on June 15, attempts to deliver 200% of the daily returns of SpaceX stock. Already one of the leaders in the geared SpaceX ETF camp, LOFF could be in play this week with some traders potentially willing to bet that mega-cap growth stocks rebound, following a multi-month stretch of weakness.

“The selloff comes amid declines in many stocks at the center of the AI trade,” noted Tom Lauricella of Morningstar. “That includes semiconductor and other hardware stocks, which had seen gains well in the triple digits earlier this year, as well as declines in mega-cap hyperscalers like Alphabet…and Meta Platforms… For SpaceX, the relevant concern is whether the massive investment in the AI buildout will generate the returns needed to support valuations.”

Is It Time to Love LOFF? As a play on SpaceX earnings, LOFF is in an interesting position because this is the company’s first report, meaning analysts don’t have comparisons to work with. That said, traders considering the Direxion ETF will want to monitor commentary on the Starlink unit, which Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens deigned the primary earnings driver for a company that’s not yet profitable.

“Starlink is currently the earnings engine for the company, and it can partially fund the AI expansion plans. In the second quarter, we are looking to see what kind of trendline for subscriber growth they are experiencing,” noted Owens.

Traders mulling LOFF should also note that SpaceX has artificial intelligence (AI) exposure, and related commentary is likely to be important, particularly when considering the recent slide experienced by some established AI equities.

“Amid the market’s widespread questions about the monetization of AI investments, SpaceX’s AI segment revenue will be a big unknown, though it’s a relatively small part of the company’s overall profit equation,” added Lauricella. “In 2025, the AI business pulled in $3.2 billion in revenue, and in the first quarter of 2026, sales totaled $818 million.”

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +5.62%) didn't have many good days in July, as its stock declined 31%. It ended the month at a share price of about $108, well below the $135 IPO price.

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, has been a vocal supporter of SpaceX, saying she thinks it "could become the most important company in history, and I mean in global history." With praise like that, it's probably no surprise that Wood is buying the dip on SpaceX, but retail investors may want to be more cautious.

Image source: Getty Images.

Ark Invest has been scooping up SpaceX Across its various exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Ark Invest bought 229,651 shares of SpaceX on July 27 and 28. It also bought 68,145 shares of Tesla during the same time period, investing a total of $47.3 million in the two Musk-led companies.

SpaceX is a top holding of multiple Ark Invest ETFs, most notably its flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK +3.23%), which owned about $283 million in SpaceX stock as of July 31. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ +3.08%) owned about $113 million.

Just because Cathie Wood and Ark Invest are buying a company doesn't mean you should do the same, especially considering the firm's mixed track record. The ARK Innovation ETF has done poorly lately, losing 41% of its value over the trailing five years. The S&P 500 has gained 70% over the same time period. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF has performed better, but with a trailing five-year return of 42%, it still loses to the S&P 500.

Is SpaceX a buy below its IPO price? SpaceX was arguably overvalued at its IPO. At the time, it had a valuation of $1.77 trillion and traded at about 95 times its 2025 sales of $18.7 billion. When a stock is significantly overvalued, a dip isn't necessarily a buying opportunity.

The insider lockup period for SpaceX starts to expire on Aug. 6, 2026, with restrictions expiring in tranches through Dec. 8, 2026. On a positive note, insider shares hitting the market will increase SpaceX's float and likely reduce its volatility. But the lockup expiry will also generate selling pressure, as it stands to reason that insiders will want to take some profits.

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If Wood is right and SpaceX becomes the most important company in global history, then the current price is a bargain. But Wood is known for extremely optimistic forecasts, especially for popular artificial intelligence stocks and cryptocurrencies.

For a more grounded estimate, Morningstar puts SpaceX's fair value at $63 per share. I'm unsure if it will drop that far -- having Musk as CEO seems to add a premium to a company's valuation. Still, I'm waiting to see a couple of earnings reports from SpaceX (the next is on Aug. 4) and to watch what happens as its lockup periods expire. It's an exciting company, but it's still too richly priced in my eyes.

A little-known provision in SpaceX’s IPO lock-up agreement could have released an additional 456 million shares as early as Aug. 7 if the stock met a specific performance target ahead of earnings. With shares trading below the required level, that incremental unlock now appears unlikely.

The $175.50 Threshold Is Out of ReachUnder SpaceX’s IPO prospectus, an additional 10% of eligible non-affiliate shares — roughly 456 million shares — could become available for sale two trading days after the company’s first earnings release if certain conditions are met.

The key requirement: SpaceX shares needed to close at or above $175.50, or 30% above the $135 IPO price, on at least five of the 10 trading days before earnings.

With shares recently trading around $107, the stock sits nearly 39% below that threshold. To trigger the additional release before Tuesday’s earnings, SpaceX would need to rally nearly 64% in a single trading session—making the performance-based unlock effectively impossible.

Only the Scheduled Lock-Up RemainsThat leaves investors with just one lock-up event to monitor.

Approximately 912 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible non-affiliate holdings, are scheduled to become eligible for sale on Aug. 5, the second trading day after the company reports second-quarter results.

Had the performance condition been met, another 456 million shares would have followed on Aug. 7, increasing the potential unlock to nearly 1.37 billion shares.

Instead, the upcoming lock-up expiration will be roughly 33% smaller than the maximum amount contemplated in the IPO prospectus.

Why it MattersLock-up expirations don’t automatically lead to insider selling. Employees, early investors and executives remain free to continue holding their shares if they believe the company’s long-term outlook remains intact.

Still, traders closely monitor these events because they increase the supply of stock eligible to trade, often adding volatility around earnings and other major catalysts.

For SpaceX, that means the focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s earnings report rather than a much larger-than-expected increase in tradable shares.

The company’s first post-IPO earnings release was already expected to be one of its biggest market catalysts. Now, investors can evaluate the results without having to weigh the possibility of another 456 million shares unexpectedly entering the market just two days later.

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Key Takeaways SpaceX is expected to post $6.72B in Q2 revenues and a loss of 26 cents per share.Starlink remains the only consistently profitable segment, though monthly ARPU fell to $66 from $86.AI drew $7.7B in first-quarter capex as investors await contract ramps and Starship updates. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX - Free Report) , better known as SpaceX, will report second-quarter earnings tomorrow after the market closes. While Wall Street expects another quarter of strong revenue growth, investors will be looking beyond the headline numbers. The bigger question is whether Starlink's growing cash flows can continue funding the company's ambitious investments in AI infrastructure and Starship.

This will be SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company since its blockbuster IPO in June, when shares were priced at $135 and quickly ran up to $225.64. The stock has since cooled off considerably, trading around $108, roughly 52% below that peak.

Earnings WhispersThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.72 billion, implying a sharp jump from $4.69 billion in the first quarter of 2026. However, profitability remains elusive, with the consensus estimate calling for a loss of 26 cents per share.

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for SpaceX for the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. 

SpaceX currently has an Earnings ESP of -13.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

SpaceX now reports results across three distinct businesses— Space, Connectivity, and AI — and each tells a very different story. Connectivity, led by Starlink, is the company's only consistently profitable segment. AI is growing rapidly but consuming enormous amounts of capital, while the Space business continues to require heavy investment as Starship development advances.

AI: The Expensive BetThe AI segment, built around the company's February merger with xAI, is both the fastest-growing part of the business and its biggest drag on profitability. In the first quarter of 2026, it generated $818 million in revenues but incurred a $2.46 billion operating loss and negative adjusted EBITDA of $609 million. Capital spending told an even more dramatic story– $7.7 billion poured into the AI segment alone in a single quarter, dwarfing the $1.05 billion spent on Space and $1.33 billion on Connectivity.

That spending is chasing large contracts. SpaceX has agreements to rent AI data center capacity to both Anthropic (worth $1.25 billion a month through May 2029, which began ramping in May and June) and Alphabet's (GOOGL - Free Report) Google ($920 million a month, not yet started).

Investors will be looking for updates on additional customer wins, progress in AI infrastructure deployment and management's long-term vision for launching AI compute satellites aboard Starship. Elon Musk has said Tesla's (TSLA - Free Report) AI chip effort will eventually be aimed at "space-based AI compute," a sign that orbital data centers are becoming a running theme across his companies.

Commentary on "Nameplate Compute Draw," which tracks installed GPU capacity, will also be closely watched as an indicator of how quickly AI capacity is expanding.

Image Source: SpaceX

Connectivity: The Profit EngineIf AI is the expensive experiment, Connectivity— anchored by Starlink— is what actually pays the bills. The segment generated $3.26 billion in the first quarter of 2026 in revenues, $1.19 billion in operating income, and $2.09 billion in segment adjusted EBITDA, making it the only one of the three segments solidly in the black.

Subscriber growth will be one of the key metrics to watch. Starlink had roughly 10.3 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter of 2026, more than double the 5 million reported a year earlier.

But the number that deserves more scrutiny is average revenue per user, which fell from $86 a month to $66 a month year over year. The decline isn't a one-off. Management has said it expects ARPU to keep sliding as Starlink expands into international and lower-priced markets. The real question for the to-be-reported quarter isn't whether subscribers keep growing (they almost certainly will), but whether margin expansion elsewhere can offset the steady erosion in what each customer pays.

Space: The Original Business, Still UnprofitableThe Space segment— Falcon and Starship launches— remains the smallest and least profitable of the three, with $619 million in first-quarter revenues and a $662 million operating loss. SpaceX launched 40 Falcon rockets in the first quarter, and Starship completed its 13th flight test in July.

Investors will be watching for an update on flight 14, along with any fresh disclosure on Starship's ballooning costs— development spending has reportedly topped $15 billion to date. This segment is less about near-term profit and more about proving the long-term platform (including that AI-satellite ambition) actually works.

Guidance Could Matter More Than the QuarterPerhaps the biggest catalyst won't be the quarterly numbers themselves.

SpaceX has never issued formal financial guidance. If management provides expectations for the remainder of 2026— and maybe a glimpse into 2027—it would help investors to better evaluate the company's aggressive investment strategy.

Final ThoughtsFor now, the story is simple. Starlink funds the ambition, Starship tests the platform, and AI is the expensive bet that could define the next several years.

The central question is whether Starlink's strong profitability can continue funding the company's capital-intensive AI and Space businesses without placing excessive strain on its financials.

If the Connectivity unit continues generating robust cash flows while AI contracts ramp and Starship development progresses, investors may remain patient with near-term losses. Otherwise, rising capital expenditures and an uncertain path to profitability could continue weighing on sentiment.

SpaceX (SPCX +2.75%), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public in the largest IPO in history on June 12. It initially soared from its IPO price of $135 to a record closing price of $211.39 on June 16, but now trades at about $108 per share.

However, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX's growth potential. The dozens of analysts who cover SpaceX still have an average price target of $236.71 on the stock, with its highest target (from Raymond James' Brian Gesuale) at $800.

Those bullish estimates are based on the idea that SpaceX will expand far beyond rockets and satellites to become an artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse. But is that outlook too optimistic?

Image source: Getty Images.

How SpaceX could evolve over the next decade SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink, its satellite internet service. Starlink is also the company's only profitable business division. SpaceX's space segment, which produces its Falcon rockets, and its AI segment, which houses xAI, X, and Cursor, are both unprofitable.

In the past, SpaceX generated a slim profit as Starlink's profits offset its space division's losses. But after SpaceX expanded its AI unit (by acquiring xAI before its IPO and Cursor after its IPO), it became unprofitable as the AI segment's losses erased Starlink's profits. It will remain unprofitable as it expands its AI business through further investments and acquisitions.

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SpaceX's revenue rose 33% to $18.7 billion in 2025. At its current market cap of $1.43 trillion, it still looks expensive at 76 times its trailing sales. However, Elon Musk claims SpaceX could generate more than $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Analysts, on average, expect its revenue to rise more than sevenfold to $141.6 billion by 2028. They also expect it to turn profitable in 2027 and grow its net income more than five times to $47.1 billion in 2028.

That acceleration could initially be driven by Starship, its largest rocket ever, and the expansion of Starlink, which already serves over 10.3 million subscribers. But after setting up that infrastructure, its growth could be fueled by its AI business.

SpaceX's AI business looks like a fragmented mess today. Still, it could become a cohesive one as it unifies its terrestrial data centers, solar-powered orbital data centers, and xAI's AI infrastructure and generative AI tools. If it achieves that, it would become the world's only end-to-end provider of space transportation, internet satellite, and AI infrastructure services.

If all three of those businesses grow rapidly over the next decade, then SpaceX could be cheap relative to its long-term growth potential. That's why Wall Street is still bullish on the stock.

DENVER, Aug. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- (247marketnews.com) -- SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) enters a pivotal week with investors focused on two catalysts that could drive significant volatility: the company's first quarterly earnings report as a public company and the beginning of a staggered insider lock-up release. With the stock under pressure since its IPO, some market participants believe shares could fall below the psychologically important $100 level if selling accelerates. That remains a possibility, not a certainty, but the combination of new share supply and heightened investor attention has made the weeks ahead particularly important.

Unlike many IPOs that feature a single 180-day "cliff" unlock, SpaceX adopted a tiered lock-up structure, meaning shares become eligible for sale in stages rather than all at once. The first significant release is expected around August 6, two trading days after the company's August 4 earnings report, when up to 911.5 million shares, approximately 20% of the early-release eligible pool, could become eligible for sale. That represents the first portion of an estimated 4.6 billion shares in the primary 180-day lock-up pool held by employees and most pre-IPO investors. Importantly, eligibility does not require holders to sell, but it substantially increases the potential supply of shares entering the market.

Additional 7% tranches are scheduled to become eligible roughly every few weeks through late October, followed by a larger release after third-quarter earnings. The remainder of the approximately 4.6 billion-share pool is expected to become eligible when the primary 180-day lock-up expires around December 8–9, 2026. By then, the publicly tradable float could increase dramatically from roughly 4–5% of outstanding shares at the IPO to approximately 40% of the company, fundamentally changing the stock's supply dynamics.

One notable exception is Elon Musk. His roughly 6.4 billion-share stake, representing more than 40% of the company, is subject to a separate 366-day lock-up that does not include early-release provisions. Based on the IPO filings, Musk's shares are expected to remain locked until approximately June 2027, meaning the near-term selling pressure is expected to come primarily from employees, former employees, venture investors, and other pre-IPO shareholders, not from the company's founder.

So far, the bears have had the upper hand. Since its public debut, SpaceX has traded well below its post-IPO highs, meaning bearish investors have benefited from the stock's decline. However, many investors also recognize that lock-up expirations are temporary supply events. Once shares become eligible for sale and those wishing to exit have largely completed their transactions, the market often shifts its focus back to company fundamentals. Whether that ultimately happens with SpaceX remains to be seen.

Another closely watched development is the continued buying activity by Cathie Wood's ARK Invest. Rather than reducing exposure during the decline, ARK has continued adding to its SpaceX position, making it one of the firm's highest-conviction holdings. While ARK's purchases do not guarantee future performance, they demonstrate that at least one prominent institutional growth investor continues to accumulate shares despite the current volatility.

Earnings may prove to be the next major catalyst. Investors are expected to focus less on historical financial results and more on management's outlook for Starlink, launch cadence, government and commercial contracts, capital expenditures, and future growth initiatives. With expectations having reset following the post-IPO pullback, management's commentary may ultimately carry more weight than the quarterly numbers themselves.

One point worth remembering is that unlock eligibility is not the same as forced selling. Some employees and early investors may choose to diversify immediately, while others may hold their shares for years. The pace at which the newly eligible shares are absorbed by the market could play an important role in determining whether the recent weakness persists or begins to stabilize.

Plus, there is Elon Musk's long history of proving skeptics wrong. Throughout Tesla's early years, the company was one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, yet repeated operational milestones and improving financial performance ultimately fueled one of the largest rallies in market history, inflicting substantial losses on many short sellers. While SpaceX is a different company facing its own unique risks and opportunities, some bullish investors believe that if the company delivers strong execution and meets long-term growth expectations, today's bearish sentiment could eventually resemble the skepticism that surrounded Tesla during its formative years. Past performance, however, does not guarantee future results.

For now, SpaceX remains one of the market's most closely watched growth stocks. The combination of earnings, a staggered increase in tradable shares, continued institutional interest, and a series of scheduled lock-up releases creates the potential for elevated volatility over the coming months. Whether the stock dips below $100 or finds support before then, investors will be watching closely to see whether the gradual absorption of new supply ultimately clears the way for the market to refocus on the company's long-term operating performance rather than its evolving share float.

Quick Lock-Up Timeline

August 4, 2026: Q2 earnings.August 6, 2026: Up to 911.5 million shares (20% of the early-release eligible pool) become eligible for sale.Late August–Late October: Additional 7% tranches unlock in stages.Late October/Early November: Larger release following Q3 earnings.December 8–9, 2026: Remaining shares in the primary 180-day lock-up become eligible.June 2027: Elon Musk's separate 366-day lock-up is expected to expire. Eligibility to sell does not obligate any shareholder to sell. The amount of stock actually sold will depend on individual decisions, company trading windows, and market conditions.

Sources

SpaceX IPO Registration Statement (Form S-1) and Final Prospectus (Form 424B4): https://www.sec.gov/MarketWatch – SpaceX IPO and earnings coverage: https://www.marketwatch.com/Tokenomist – SpaceX ownership and float analysis: https://tokenomist.ai/StockAlarm Pro – SpaceX lock-up schedule: https://pro.stockalarm.io/Investor's Business Daily – ARK Invest SpaceX coverage: https://www.investors.com/ About 24/7 Market News

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Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Such statements include statements regarding the Company's ability to grow its business and other statements that are not historical facts, including statements which may be accompanied by the words "intends," "may," "will," "plans," "expects," "anticipates," "projects," "predicts," "estimates," "aims," "believes," "hopes," "potential" or similar words. Actual results could differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including without limitation, the Company's ability to continue as a going concern, general economic conditions, and other risk factors detailed in the Company's filings with the SEC. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date of this press release, and the Company does not undertake any responsibility to update such forward-looking statements except in accordance with applicable law.

Although it is undeniably highly anticipated, the Tuesday, August 4 SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) earnings report remains something of a black box in terms of what investors can expect.

To begin with, Elon Musk’s newer public company has, as multiple analysts noted, been undergoing a business transformation during the second quarter (Q2) in a series of moves arguably bringing it closer to the artificial intelligence (AI)-heavy vision outlined in the S–1.

Specifically, compute agreements with Anthropic and Google’s parent company, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), are poised to bring in roughly $2 billion per month in additional revenue, though the overall Q2 impact will be more limited.

Still, analysts are expecting strong growth in sales from slightly under $5 billion in Q1 up to nearly $7 billion for the period ended June 30. They do, however, also anticipate SpaceX remaining an unprofitable company for the time being.

Is SpaceX stock a good investment ahead of Q2 earnings report? Overall, the fact that SpaceX is set to report its first-ever quarterly earnings report after its initial public offering (IPO), paired with SPCX shares’ performance in the stock market, raises the question of whether it is time to buy the equity.

Notably, the 33.80% drop to $106.20 in the last 30 days and the 21.33% drop from the $135 IPO price both hint that an upward correction might be brewing.

SpaceX stock price one-month chart. Source: Google Given the setup, the imminent earnings appear like the final catalyst to drive SPCX shares upward after more than a month of decline, though other factors still paint it as a dubious investment.

Only a significantly larger-than-expected earnings beat can begin to diminish the gaping divide between company financials and its valuation – a factor that represents a major long-term risk for shareholders.

In the more short-term, the Q2 filing will also usher in the first batch of insider SpaceX stock unlocks, meaning that SPCX will be facing significant selling pressure almost immediately after beginning its next rally.

This, the equity of Elon Musk’s newer public company is likely to remain, at best, a ‘Hold’ for the foreseeable future, even if the Tuesday filing provides sufficient tailwinds for a rally.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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Governance Critics Not Looking at DataShah then said that he did not think SpaceX’s recent decline had to do with governance issues, but rather the market “reevaluating general views on AI.” He also pointed out that there was “no clear direct evidence that chairman-CEO separation always leads to better performance.”

The analyst said that “overly simplistic” views like “dual-class shareholder structure is bad,” while “chairman-CEO separation is good” could result in investors losing money and making “bad investment decisions.” He then said that when investing in AI companies, he sees the enterprise’s interaction with the government as the biggest question.

“The US went from a year ago having virtually no AI regulations to now state and federal level” regulations in place, the analyst said.

Gary Black, Peter Schiff on SpaceXPrice Action: SpaceX shares were up 0.28% at $108.66 during overnight trading.

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) isn't part of the "Magnificent Seven" group of stocks, but its total market value of $1.48 trillion puts it ahead of components Meta Platforms (META +3.28%) and Tesla (TSLA +0.76%).

The other components, Apple (AAPL -7.35%), Nvidia (NVDA +2.93%), Alphabet (GOOG +6.88%)(GOOGL +6.73%), Microsoft (MSFT +3.02%), and Amazon (AMZN +15.32%), are the five most valuable companies in the world.

They're all tech giants, and they lead the Nasdaq-100, an index of top tech stocks that's a bellwether of market sentiment toward technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

SpaceX was officially added to the index on July 7 after the rules were changed to fast-track its addition. Since then, the S&P 500 is down 2%, the Nasdaq-100 is down 7%, and SpaceX stock is down 25%.

Image source: Getty Images.

Most of the Magnificent Seven companies have released earnings recently, with Nvidia scheduled for Aug. 26. SpaceX is on track to report on Aug. 4. 

Elon Musk and SpaceX's leadership team banked on raising $75 billion in its initial public offering (IPO), but because demand was so strong, underwriters exercised their overallotment, and SpaceX raised $86 billion.

That brought the company's total value at IPO to $2 trillion, implying the market believes SpaceX belongs right up there with the world's other largest tech powerhouses.

But do the fundamentals back that up? Let's see how SpaceX stacks up next to the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Is SpaceX just getting started? The first thing to note is that SpaceX is a much smaller company by sales than the other companies on the list. Since it has a similar value, though, the obvious conclusion is that it must be much more expensive -- and it is.

CompanyTTM SalesPrice-to-Sales ratioMost Recent Quarterly Sales GrowthSpaceX$19 billion7715%Apple$451 billion1116%Nvidia$253 billion1985%Alphabet$446 billion924%Microsoft$318 billion1118%Amazon$743 billion320%Meta$215 billion628%Tesla$104 billion1126% Data sources: Company filings, YCharts, Yahoo Finance. Growth is year over year. TTM = trailing-12-month.

SpaceX trades at a wildly high valuation, but it's not growing faster than its large counterparts. Investors believe, though, that SpaceX represents the future and that it has massive growth and earnings potential. Goldman Sachs analysts expect AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030, and Morgan Stanley analysts forecast $3.4 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2040.

Wall Street expects $39 billion in 2026 sales and $73 billion next year, which implies an 87% increase, similar to Nvidia's recent growth rates.

Cash spend and profits SpaceX is also losing money at this stage, while all of the other Magnificent Seven stocks are profitable. Although the Starlink satellite broadband business is posting positive net income, total net loss in the 2026 first quarter was more than $4 billion.

I would note that Elon Musk's other public company, Tesla, was also unprofitable for a long time, so he does have a track record of achieving profitability from a money-losing start.

Wall Street is already expecting a profit for the third quarter, with an average analyst consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) target of $0.08. It expects a $0.55 loss per share for the full year, followed by positive EPS of around $0.65 in 2027.

Long-term opportunity in AI Since its acquisition of xAI earlier this year, SpaceX has three businesses: rocket launching, Starlink satellite broadband, and AI. Many investors are excited about the space aspect of the company's business, but the company sees its biggest opportunities in AI.

SpaceX pegs its addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion in AI. It recently acquired the fast-growing AI coding company Cursor, which should add a significant revenue stream to the company's total. Investors should find out exactly how much in the quarterly update on Aug. 4.

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However, most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have similar AI opportunities, so SpaceX doesn't stand out in that regard. They each have their own take on it, with Apple's being the iPhone and devices, and Nvidia's being the chips and hardware that power AI development. On that score, SpaceX might be competitive, but it's too early to say.

Its large language model (LLM), Grok, is widely used, but popular rivals include OpenAI's ChatGPT, Alphabet's Gemini, and Anthropic's Claude.

There are ways SpaceX stacks up well against the Magnificent Seven, but one reason the others are so magnificent is that they've proven themselves over time. SpaceX falls short there, and the market will evaluate it over time. If it doesn't meet the bar, it will eventually fade way back behind the tech giants.

SpaceX (SPCX) will deliver its first public earnings report, with focus on Starlink growth, Starship timeline, and capital spending. SPCX shares have fallen over 50% from peak and are 20% below the IPO price, with supply risks largely priced in according to bullish Wall Street targets.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%), better known as SpaceX, has seen its stock price tumble since it made its market debut in June. After climbing to more than $200 per share shortly after its initial public offering (IPO), the stock now trades at about $108 (as of July 31).

Most investors knew the stock price of the unprofitable, capital-intensive business would be volatile once it started trading, and that volatility doesn't appear to be going away. Wall Street analysts see a huge move in SpaceX's stock price by next summer, according to their price targets. Here's what investors can expect.

Image source: Getty Images.

How much will SpaceX be worth in 2027? The median price target for SpaceX stock among 37 Wall Street analysts is $225 per share. That implies an investment in the shares could more than double by mid-2027.

Some of the reasons for the overall bullish stance on SpaceX include its leading position in space launch technology, which is unlikely to be matched by competitors anytime soon. That enables it to launch rockets at a lower cost and more frequently than anyone else, which should enable it to scale its Starlink telecommunications business, where competing satellite companies have struggled.

The prospect of SpaceX developing orbital data centers also has many analysts excited, as it presents a huge total addressable market. SpaceX is already capitalizing on demand for AI compute with its terrestrial data centers, signing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet ahead of its IPO.

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Additionally, analysts seem to have increased their price targets simply because Elon Musk is running the company. Not only does Musk attract retail investors, but he also holds an impressive track record of successfully commercializing advanced technology.

On the other hand, sell-side analysts are normally an optimistic group. What's more, a handful of those price targets come from analysts working for the investment banks that underwrote the SpaceX IPO. And while their analysis is separate from the underwriting activity, it's hard to see how their employers' participation in the IPO doesn't influence their analyses.

In other words, take the median price target with a grain of salt.

Can SpaceX double by next year? While it's certainly possible for SpaceX shares to reach $225 or more by mid-2027 -- after all, it briefly touched that level in June -- a few factors are working against the stock.

First is the lockup expirations set to introduce additional shares to the market. SpaceX issued less than 5% of its total shares in its IPO. Insiders and early investors hold the rest. And with the huge increase in the company's value during the past few years, those early investors will be free to sell as soon as their lockups expire.

The first opportunity for pre-IPO shareholders to sell their stock will come on Aug. 6, two days after SpaceX's first earnings report. The lockup expiration could be a bigger test than the earnings release.

For the most part, SpaceX is valued based on its potential well into the future. Market dynamics could play an even bigger role in the share price in the near term. Investors will get their first glimpse at whether the market can absorb an influx of shares in just a few days.

There are more lockup expirations in the coming months. Select investors and Musk have lockups that won't expire until mid-2027. As such, constant selling pressure could weigh on the stock price during the next year.

Additionally, consider the valuation. Despite their decline in price since the IPO, SpaceX shares still trade for about 75 times sales (SpaceX isn't profitable so price-to-sales is the appropriate metric). Analysts expect sales to get a big boost from leasing out compute capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet, but the stock price is still very expensive.

Lastly, SpaceX's need to raise capital could hang over the stock. Morgan Stanley estimates the company won't produce positive free cash flow until 2035. What's more, it probably will burn about $700 billion in capital before it gets there. That makes SpaceX particularly reliant on the debt market to raise additional capital in the future. If interest rates rise, the cost of capital will increase, further weighing on the stock price.

Overall, I'm not nearly as optimistic that SpaceX will reach the levels predicted by Wall Street. That said, it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk.

Elon Musk gets plenty of attention. He'll get even more this week.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) was the initial public offering (IPO) in history, collecting more than $86 billion, or more than double the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019.

However, the stock's trajectory since then hasn't been quite as promising as investors had hoped. After hitting a high of $225 a week after the IPO on June 20, the stock is down 50% from that price.

Is this an opportunity to buy the stock on the dip? Cathie Wood thinks so. Her company, Ark Invest, has been scooping up shares of the beleaguered stock lately. Should you follow her lead?

Why Cathie Wood loves SpaceX Wood was praising SpaceX well before it went public. She offered it to investors pre-IPO through her private equity fund, the Ark Venture Fund, which also provides access to other private companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Stripe.

In a commentary posted on the Ark Invest website, Wood's company has praised SpaceX as the "critical unlock for the space economy" because it is perfecting the reusable rocket, and costs continue to decline as the technology improves.

SpaceX anticipates sending tens of thousands of rockets into low Earth orbit over the next few years, and Ark sees accelerating broadband capacity as giving SpaceX the potential for "hundreds of billions of dollars in gross profit by 2030."

This is likely why SpaceX's astronomical valuation doesn't bother her. Even at today's lower price, SpaceX stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 77, higher than the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 on a price-to-sales basis, Palantir Technologies, at 57. And Palantir is highly profitable, while SpaceX is reporting high losses.

If it can indeed generate massive gross profit by 2030, it should be able to carry a high premium.

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Is it time to buy SpaceX stock? Wood loves disruptive tech stocks, which she sees as driving the future. She was an early Tesla fan and clearly admires Elon Musk for his vision and technical execution.

Her company markets several funds, most of which are traded as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and their performance has been spotty. Her picks, like Tesla, are high-risk, high-reward. Some have laid the groundwork for artificial intelligence (AI) and skyrocketed, such as Nvidia and Palantir, while others have lost market confidence, such as Block and Robinhood Markets.

In general, growth stocks outpace value stocks in a strong bull market, but Ark's flagship ETF, the Ark Innovation Fund, is underperforming this year despite the S&P 500's rise.

^SPX data by YCharts

I still think it's too early to buy SpaceX, which is a signature component of the Ark Innovation ETF, even if you believe in its opportunities. There's a lot of growth built into its price, and it's a while off from turning a profit. If the valuation becomes more attractive and the company approaches profitability, you can reevaluate.

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Positive Market Shift, But Watch For This; Amazon, Alphabet, CrowdStrike In Focus

Stock Market Gains Even As Apple Crumbles; Jobs Report, AMD Earnings Loom SpaceX releases its second-quarter earnings late Tuesday, marking the rocket-maker's first report since its public debut in June. The results should detail the Starbase, Texas-based company's accelerating launch programs, Starlink growth and artificial intelligence developments. The report arrives as SPCX stock last week fell to post-IPO lows. Beyond financial figures and performance metrics, analysts and investors await updates from Elon…

Copyright ©2026 Investor's Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%), more commonly known as SpaceX, burst onto the investing scene earlier this year in spectacular fashion. The space technology company founded by the world's richest person, Elon Musk, set the record for the largest IPO in history. SpaceX became the most talked-about stock on the planet.

However, the sizzle quickly fizzled. Over the last seven weeks, SpaceX's share price has plunged more than 40% from its peak in the immediate aftermath of its IPO. Is the worst over? I don't think so. Instead, I predict SpaceX stock is about to sink further.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the SpaceX sell-off has been justified I believe that the steep SpaceX sell-off has been fully justified. Quite simply, the company's valuation was well above a realistic level from the get-go. Many retail investors jumped on the SpaceX bandwagon without crunching the numbers.

When a stock is priced for perfection (and beyond), any bump in the road usually causes a significant decline. SpaceX has had three such bumps since its IPO.

First, only days after its public listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding leader Cursor. This deal diluted existing shares at an inopportune time as the stock began to experience initial post-IPO selling pressure.

Second, the company was forced to abort its planned Starship launch on July 16, 2026, after several engines failed. Starship, which is designed to transport humans and cargo into space, is viewed as a key growth driver for SpaceX.

Third, when SpaceX finally launched Starship (along with its newest Starlink satellites), the company hit another snag. Although the launch was successful, the rocket booster exploded after impacting the water faster than expected during landing.

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More headwinds, more downside Why do I think SpaceX stock has even more downside? The company faces additional headwinds.

One potential challenge for SpaceX arrives on Aug. 4. That's when the company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results. I'm not predicting that SpaceX will post disappointing numbers. However, investors will heavily scrutinize Starlink subscriber growth, xAI revenue, free cash flow, and capital expenditures. Even a minor sign of a problem could cause the stock to tank.

The biggest looming issue for SpaceX, though, is the expiration of its lockup period. The first lockup window opens soon after its Q2 update. As early investors begin to sell their shares, we could see downward pressure on SpaceX's share price.

How low can SpaceX go? Morningstar (MORN -0.28%) calculated a fair value for SpaceX of $780 billion. SpaceX's market cap would have to plummet nearly 50% from its current level to reach that valuation.

Do I think it will fall that much? No. Neither does Wall Street. The most pessimistic analyst, HSBC's (HSBC -0.63%) Nicolas Cote-Colisson, thinks the space stock is already close to where it will be 12 months from now. The consensus 12-month price target for SpaceX reflects an upside of over 100%. Raymond James (RJF +0.58%) analyst Brian Gesuale is super-bullish about SpaceX, with a target of $800 -- roughly 6.8 times the current share price.

Many of Wall Street's projections are overly rosy, in my view. I stand by my prediction that SpaceX's shares will sink further, perhaps by another 20% or so.

However, I also fully expect a strong bounce once the impact of the lockup period expirations run their course. My hunch is that SpaceX will finish 2026 trading between $150 and $160 per share. If I'm right, buying now could pay off -- if you're willing to endure significant volatility.

A discarded part of a rocket from Elon Musk’s SpaceX could crash into the moon early on Aug. 5, potentially creating a new crater — and the plume could be visible from Earth, according to new research.

getty

A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is set to collide with the moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, in an unplanned impact that’s expected to create a fresh crater and send a towering plume of debris into space.

The collision itself will occur on the moon’s sunlit surface and won’t be visible from Earth even in large telescopes, but the resulting dust cloud may be, according to new research published this week by researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and NASA Ames Research Center.

If so, it’s a very rare opportunity to witness the aftermath of an object striking the moon, though it also highlights the dangers of space junk as NASA prepares to build a moonbase.

ForbesSpaceX Space Junk Could Crash Into The Moon In August, Scientist SaysBy Jamie Carter

SpaceX Rocket To Strike Near Einstein CraterThe 45 ft. (13.8-meter) upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket — SpaceX’s workhorse reusable rocket that has launched almost 700 times — was launched into space on Jan. 15, 2025, from Launch Complex 39A at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. It carried the Firefly Blue Ghost Mission 1 and the ispace RESILIENCE mission into space. It’s been drifting in space ever since, but was not intended to strike the moon.

The 8,800 lb (4,000 kg) object, cataloged as 2025-010D, is predicted to hit the lunar surface at 06:35 UTC on Aug. 5, at approximately 5,400mph (8,700km/h) near Einstein Crater on the moon’s western limb. It could cause a crater roughly 89 feet (27 meters) across and 16 feet (5 meters) deep.

Space Junk: A Future Threat?Space debris in orbit is on the rise, with about 35,000 objects now tracked by space surveillance networks, according to the European Space Agency. 2025-010D may pose no danger to humanity for now, but impacts on the moon could be massively consequential in the future if NASA and the China National Space Administration make good on plans for a permanent human presence on the lunar surface.

Debris Plume May Be Visible From EarthAccording to researchers, the impact flash could be as bright as magnitude +3, or so faint that even large telescopes won’t detect it. Either way, the flash is unlikely to be visible because the crash site is fully illuminated by sunlight and will likely last less than a second, so attention has shifted to the much larger debris plume expected to rise above the moon’s horizon.

Modeling suggests that the impact is expected to excavate around 2.65 million pounds (1.2 million kilograms) of lunar regolith — roughly 150-200 times the rocket’s own mass. It could be visible for about 10 minutes, silhouetted against the darkness of space beyond the moon’s bright limb.

The eastern half of North America and much of South America will have the best viewing conditions. Both professional and amateur astronomers are being encouraged to attempt observations using high frame rate cameras.

Scientists Hope To Learn More About Lunar ImpactsBeyond providing a spectacle for some skywatchers, the collision offers researchers a valuable scientific experiment. “Given the renewed interest in lunar exploration, the impact of artificial bodies on the moon is almost certain to become more frequent,” reads the paper. “To avoid uncontrolled increases in the amount of space debris in lunar orbit (as is the case now in low Earth orbit), advancing monitoring of cislunar space from ground- and space-based facilities will be key.”

NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are both in a position to image before and after the impact.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

As is often the case following an initial public offering, some investors are betting that the pre-IPO hype surrounding Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.13%) -- you know it better as SpaceX -- will continue to fade, letting the stock sink with it.

Specifically, as of the latest count, 165 million SPCX shares have been sold short. In other words, these investors have sold shares of SpaceX they don't yet own, with plans to buy them at a (hopefully) lower price in the future to profitably close out these positions.

Founder and CEO Elon Musk responded, of course. In a post on his social media site X, Musk writes, "The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," meaning these risky trades are likely to backfire by virtue of SPCX shares rallying rather than continuing to sink. The higher SpaceX shares climb, the bigger these short-sellers' losses can get. In theory, their potential losses are infinite.

The question is, who's right? Musk, mostly, but there's some important nuance to consider.

Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO. Image source: The White House.

When it comes to Musk, perspective is needed Let's be intellectually honest here -- Elon Musk isn't warning a handful of investors they're taking a grave risk. He's protecting his company by trying to prop up its falling stock price. Most CEOs and insider owners would do the same.

It just doesn't matter.

See, these short-sellers didn't make their decision on a whim that's going to be unwound by a single vote of optimism, even when that vote is coming from the one person who knows the company best, and especially when that person has the most to gain from SpaceX stock gaining ground rather than losing it (Musk personally owns nearly half of Space Exploration Technologies stock).

Right or wrong, these shorts are likely to stay in place at least until Aug. 4, when SpaceX's second-quarter earnings are scheduled to be released. That will either vindicate them with a sizable setback for the stock, or punish them with a reversal of this ticker's recent weakness.

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Statistically speaking, though, the odds are actually in these short-sellers' near-term favor. Numbers from Nasdaq Economic Research indicate that between 2010 and 2020, over half of newly IPO'd stocks were below their IPO price six months after their public offering. Moreover, brokerage firm Edward Jones found that shares of technology companies that went public during this same period were down an average of 14% from their IPO price six months later.

It's not difficult to figure out what happened. This era saw similarly hyped IPOs from then-Facebook (now Meta Platforms), Snapchat parent Snap, and Twitter (now X), just to name a few. As is often the case, the market was too enthusiastic early on ... enthusiasm that faded when cooler heads began to see these companies' actual results and made more reasonable assessments of their stock valuations.

SpaceX is not going to $0 That being said, there's no denying Space Exploration Technologies is a real company; its future existence isn't in question. And even Musk qualified his warning with "over time." From that perspective, any SPCX short-sellers with plans on staying in their trade forever should reconsider that plan.

In the near term, though? Maybe a different story.

Bottom line: There will come a time when this ticker makes a bottom that's never revisited. The trick is just figuring out when and where that is.

31.7.2026 10:10, TSLA, SPCX

Výrobce elektromobilů Tesla podle deníku The Wall Street Journal zvažuje oddělení svých aktivit v Číně před případným spojením se společností SpaceX. Mezi diskutované varianty patří vyčlenění čínského podnikání do samostatné firmy, jeho prodej nebo uzavření. Konečné rozhodnutí zatím nepadlo a plán se může změnit.

Hlavním důvodem jsou geopolitické obavy a možné regulatorní komplikace spojené s působením SpaceX jako významného dodavatele americké vlády a obranného sektoru. Tržby od americké vlády tvořily v roce 2025 přibližně 20,9 % tržeb SpaceX. Oddělení čínské divize by mělo vytvořit bariéru mezi aktivitami Tesly v Číně a obranným byznysem SpaceX.

Čína je pro Teslu druhým největším trhem a v první polovině roku 2026 tvořila přibližně 18 % jejích tržeb. Automobilka v Šanghaji vyrábí elektromobily a baterie pro čínský trh i export. Případná separace by mohla mít významný dopad na Teslu a v případě spojení se SpaceX také na její ocenění.

Akcie Tesla a SpaceX Akcie Tesly (TSLA) v předburzovní fázi posilují o 2,1 % na 315,4 USD, zatímco akcie SpaceX (SPCX) rostou o 1,4 % na 113,8 USD.

Zdroj: The Wall Street Journal

Marek Krejčiřík
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení

Související odkazy Index S&P 500 na začátku obchodování oslabuje, akcie Alphabet po výsledcích klesají o 6,3 % Tesla zveřejnila výsledky za 2Q, zisk na akcii zaostal za odhady Wall Street otevírá po reportu z trhu práce v zeleném Americké akciové indexy rostou po dohodě mezi USA a Íránem Americké indexy zahajují seanci v zeleném

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.31%) has been on a remarkable losing streak. As of this writing, ten out of the previous 12 trading days have ended with a new record-low closing price. SpaceX's stock is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high of $225 and about 15% below its $135 IPO price.

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I could insert a tired joke on failed launches or downward trajectories, but that would only distract from an important point: If you've been holding out on buying SpaceX, the buying opportunity might be coming into view. Here's what I mean.

Why SpaceX's falling share price is improving its long-term potential Throughout SpaceX's short life on the market, the stock -- at least for disciples of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham like moi -- has been overburdened by an absurdly high valuation. I could pull any valuation metric out of my hat -- a price-to-sales ratio of 77, for instance -- but you square it, SpaceX stock has looked repulsively pricy by traditional standards.

It still, to be sure, does: Even after losing $1.2 trillion -- an amount roughly equivalent to the individual market caps of Tesla, Micron, and Berkshire Hathaway -- the stock carries a market cap of $1.5 trillion, which is still higher than the three mega companies just mentioned.

But now that SpaceX has shaved off -- and is continuing to shave -- some of its excessive valuation, the margin of error for investors grows wider. Before, at a multitrillion-dollar valuation, SpaceX would have to perform so perfectly that nothing short of space-based AI data centers and multiplanetary civilization would have been enough to send the stock soaring.

Image source: Getty Images.

With half of its valuation wiped out, SpaceX no longer has to conquer the solar system to get investors to pay attention. Indeed, one might say that actual business growth will begin to matter more than whatever ambitious vision the space company can cook up next.

To be sure, those unrealized, galactic ambitions are still driving much of the stock's current trillion-dollar valuation, which is why investors still should exercise caution.

For example, it's easy to look at its rounded-up 2025 revenue of $19 billion and say, "Yeah, but its (self-reported) total addressable market (TAM) is $28.5 trillion!" Never mind that $28.5 trillion is about $9 trillion larger than China's entire economy and only about $2 trillion shy of the United States'. As with any company whose valuation depends on hypothetical future business, a good dose of clear-headed rationality could stop you from sinking the nest egg into what amounts to a fantasy.

Let me be clear: A lower share price does not necessarily make SpaceX a better business. It does, however, make the same business cheaper to buy. And since I believe SpaceX has the leadership, technical knowledge, and ambition to expand the limits of human civilization, every bit of air that comes out of this obscenely valued stock makes me feel slightly more bullish.

But not bullish enough to buy: not yet. Personally, I don't think SpaceX belongs in the trillion-dollar club yet. I would continue to hold off on buying SpaceX for now, at least until its valuation looks even more reasonable or until its financial results catch up to its extraordinary ambitions.

Fox News real estate contributor Katrina Campins discuss how newly minted SpaceX IPO millionaires are dramatically impacting luxury housing markets and how quality of life is driving real estate on 'Varney & Co.' 00:00 - SpaceX millionaires flood the market 00:44 - The "August 6th" luxury cash-out 01:45 - Moving stock market gains into real assets 02:14 - Why buyers are fleeing California for Florida 03:10 - The shift toward "simple living" and space 04:02 - Luxury vs. Middle-Class housing inventory

Key Takeaways SPCX is set to post its first public quarterly report, with $6.72B in revenue and a 26-cent loss expected.Starship milestones and Starlink growth support SpaceX, but debt and AI expansion raise investor concerns.SpaceX has fallen 16.6% since its IPO, and cautious investors may await clearer earnings expectations. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings after the closing bell on Aug. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and loss is pegged at $6.72 billion and 26 cents per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for SpaceX for 2026 and 2027 have witnessed no revision in the past seven days.

SPCX Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Surprise HistoryThis is the Elon Musk-owned aerospace and communications behemoth’s first earnings report since its debut as a publicly traded company on June 12.

Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not predict an earnings beat for SpaceX for the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SpaceX currently has an Earnings ESP of -4.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping the Upcoming ResultsSpaceX enjoyed a spectacular debut following its IPO. Strong investor demand, limited share availability and optimism surrounding the company's long-term growth prospects fueled a sharp rally during the first few weeks of trading. However, as the initial euphoria faded, investors began reassessing the company's valuation based on earnings potential rather than future expectations. The result has been a broad-based correction as early investors locked in gains.

The company completed a successful Starship test mission during the quarter, achieving several important technical milestones, including satellite deployment and in-space engine restart capabilities. These developments reinforce SpaceX's technological leadership in reusable launch systems.

During the quarter, SpaceX issued senior unsecured notes to improve its liquidity and repay a $20 billion bridge loan taken to fund the acquisition and merger with AI startup firm xAI. However, this led to uncertainty among investors amid concerns about heavy capital expenditure strains and governance issues, particularly after a $60-billion deal to acquire Anysphere.

The all-stock deal for Anysphere, aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market with the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor, fanned concerns about dilution of existing shareholders. It also led to fears that an aggressive, hyper-expensive expansion into AI infrastructure could weigh on long-term profitability. These are likely to be reflected in the impending quarterly results.

SpaceX continues to trade at a premium valuation compared with most aerospace and technology peers. The stock's initial rally reflected expectations for rapid growth in Starlink, commercial launch services and future space exploration initiatives. While these businesses continue to offer significant long-term opportunities, the valuation had left little margin for execution missteps.

Price PerformanceSpaceX has declined 16.6% since its IPO, underperforming the industry’s growth of 85.3%. It has lagged peers like Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) over this period. While Verizon gained 0.6%, AT&T is up 4.1%.

SPCX Stock Price Performance Since IPO

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investment ConsiderationSpaceX remains uniquely positioned to capitalize on several long-term secular growth trends, including satellite broadband, reusable launch systems, government space programs and next-generation communications infrastructure. The company has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. SpaceX now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.

However, near-term risks remain. Valuation concerns, potential insider selling following the lockup expiration and uncertainty surrounding the company's first few earnings reports could continue to weigh on the stock. SpaceX's more than 50% decline from its June high appears to reflect a normalization in valuation rather than a significant deterioration in its long-term business prospects. While the recent correction has made the stock considerably more attractive than it was just a few weeks ago, investors may prefer to wait for greater clarity from the company's inaugural earnings report before becoming more aggressive.

End NoteSpaceX continues to execute on multiple growth fronts, including launch services, satellite communications and next-generation space transportation. The combination of industry leadership, recurring revenue growth from Starlink and significant long-term optionality through Starship makes the company one of the most compelling stories in the global innovation landscape.

While valuation concerns and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears well-positioned to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. For investors seeking exposure to disruptive technologies and long-term growth themes, SpaceX may still have room to run.

Long-term growth investors with a higher risk tolerance may view the current weakness as an opportunity to gradually accumulate shares. More conservative investors, however, may find it prudent to remain on the sidelines until the stock establishes a firmer bottom and earnings expectations become clearer.

SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX has lost almost half its value since reaching a high of $225.64 on June 16, turning the excitement surrounding the listing into a lesson about valuation and share supply.

The stock closed Wednesday at $112.55, around 17% below its $135 IPO price and 50.2% beneath the peak.

More than $1 trillion in market value has disappeared despite progress in Starship testing and demand for launch and Starlink services.

Jim Cramer remains optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects, but he believes investors planning a large purchase should wait until after the company reports earnings and the first insider lock-up expires.

SpaceX will publish its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Two days later, roughly 911.5 million restricted shares are expected to become eligible for trading.

IPO lock-ups prevent founders, employees and early investors from selling their holdings.

Their expiration does not guarantee that every eligible share will be sold, but it increases the available supply and can pressure prices when demand is already fragile.

Cramer said investors could “maybe buy a little” before the event, according to CNBC, but urged anyone considering a major position to wait.

His concern is that an encouraging earnings report may struggle to offset the prospect of more stock entering the market.

SpaceX used a staggered lock-up structure rather than a conventional single 180-day restriction.

Further portions will become tradable over the following months, keeping the supply overhang alive beyond August.

That makes Cramer’s argument about timing rather than the company’s direction.

Strong results could spark a rebound, but disappointing financial details combined with insider selling could push the shares closer to $100.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 target.

Barron’s reported that he values SpaceX’s established launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share.

Jonas argued that a price near $100 would effectively assign no value to the company’s artificial-intelligence operations.

That could create an opportunity if SpaceX turns its computing infrastructure, xAI relationship and proposed orbital data centres into durable revenue.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken an even more aggressive position, assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 target.

The Financial Times reported that the forecast assumes SpaceX becomes a foundational platform spanning launch, satellite communications, national security and AI infrastructure.

The bearish case is that SpaceX still carries a valuation supported heavily by future businesses.

Starlink must produce durable margins, Starship must achieve reliable reusability and AI investments must generate enough revenue to justify enormous capital needs.

CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target.

Business Insider reported that Snyder admired the company’s vision but believed its financial disclosures did not yet justify the valuation.

HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson also started coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 target, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s launch leadership but caution over its broader ambitions.

The August 4 report must provide evidence on cash burn, Starlink economics, capital expenditure and the timeline for emerging AI projects.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.32%) recently completed the 13th test flight of its large Starship rocket, and by the company's own accounts, it was mostly successful. Even with the rocket completing many of its objectives -- including a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean and the release of Starlink satellites -- investors weren't wowed.

In the first trading session following the launch, SpaceX stock was down by more than 4%.

So, why aren't shareholders pleased with the results? It's likely because SpaceX is spending billions of dollars to build its artificial intelligence infrastructure -- and they're worried it won't pay off.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Starship is an important part of SpaceX's future because the world's largest rocket could help the company eventually reduce the cost of reaching orbit by 99% compared to the historical average launch cost.

Starship will be used to launch payloads into space for customers and, as the test flight showed, send more Starlink satellites into space. Starlink is critical to SpaceX's growth, as the satellite internet service is SpaceX's biggest revenue driver. Starlink sales were about $3.2 billion in Q1 2026.

But some shareholders likely looked past the successful Starship test because SpaceX is more than just a rocket company, and its spending on its artificial intelligence projects is sky-high.

In the first quarter, 76% of SpaceX's $10 billion in capital expenditure (capex) was allocated to its AI programs, primarily for data center infrastructure. Not only is that a large percentage of total spending, but overall capex spending is accelerating at the company.

In 2025, SpaceX's total capex was $20.7 billion, meaning that in the first quarter of this year, the company had already spent about half of all of last year's total.

Investors are increasingly skeptical that the billions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately pay off for SpaceX and other tech companies. Profits from massive AI spending have been hard to come by, and it's erasing much of the free cash flow that large tech companies are used to generating.

One recent example is Alphabet, whose share price has fallen as investors focused on the fact that its free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion in the first quarter -- its first negative free cash flow since going public in 2004.

SpaceX is worse off because, unlike Alphabet, the company isn't profitable. And investors are skeptical that it'll be profitable any time soon with all its AI spending underway.

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It's not the time to buy SpaceX yet Potential SpaceX investors aren't wrong to be skeptical of SpaceX's spending, and current shareholders are right to be concerned.

The company shows no signs of slowing down its AI investments, and another Musk-led company, Tesla, just reported negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years. Investors punished Tesla's shares for the decline.

Rockets, satellite internet, and AI business aren't cheap, of course, but I don't think investors are going to give up their aversion to AI overspending any time soon. As long as the spending is high and profits are low, it's likely SpaceX's stock could struggle to gain traction.

What's more, SpaceX shares already trade at a premium. The stock's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is about 77 right now, compared to the tech sector average P/S ratio of 7.

Owning some AI stocks can be a smart move, but investors may want to focus on more profitable companies right now. The AI spending boom isn't slowing down any time soon, but that doesn't mean shareholders have to own shares of an AI company that's miles away from profitability and spending too much on AI bets that may not pay off.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.48%) just conducted one of the most successful IPOs in history. After setting an initial IPO price of $135 per share with a market cap of $1.77 trillion, share prices shot higher during the space stock's public debut. At one point, SpaceX stock soared above $225 per share.

The exuberance was short-lived. Just six weeks after its IPO, SpaceX's stock price is now below $117 per share. That's about 13% lower than the company's original IPO price.

SpaceX is expected to announce its first-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. I don't expect many surprises on a material level, but I do expect CEO Elon Musk to do his best to hype the struggling rocket stock. That's especially true given another major event that will come just days after the second-quarter earnings release.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX investors must understand the company's lock-up schedule When SpaceX went public, less than 5% of its total outstanding share count was made available for public purchase. Analysts call this freely traded allotment of shares "float." Having such a small float naturally makes a stock more volatile, as supply or demand can quickly outstrip the other. Many experts argue that this is exactly why SpaceX's stock soared so much in its debut. Many of those same experts also believe the small float was partly responsible for SpaceX's sudden valuation slide in more recent trading sessions.

While a large float can help a stock reduce volatility over the long term, increasing the float can add short-term selling pressure. This is exactly what SpaceX shareholders should be wary of ahead of Q2 earnings. That's because a critical lockup period will expire, allowing certain shareholders to sell their stock on public markets for the first time.

Following Q2 earnings, potentially another 20% of SpaceX's outstanding shares will be made available for public sale. That could more than quadruple SpaceX's available float.

Many Wall Street analysts are concerned that the massive increase in float will create an overhang on SpaceX's stock price.

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"We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low cost basis and long holding periods," explains Nicolas Owens, an analyst for Morningstar. It's possible, however, that most of the potential overhang has already been priced into SpaceX stock. "It's conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup," Owens adds.

Ultimately, this will only be the first major increase in SpaceX's fleet. After third-quarter earnings are announced, another huge block of shares will be made publicly available, followed by the expiration of another lockup period after fourth-quarter earnings are revealed. In mid-2027, Musk will be cleared to sell his entire stake, totaling an astounding 6.4 billion shares.

None of these lockup periods should be a surprise to investors. All were clearly outlined in SpaceX's IPO prospectus. While the magnitude of SpaceX's float increases is unique, lockup periods are largely standard for IPO stocks.

Investors should monitor SpaceX's key lockup dates. However, an investment in the company should be based on long-term fundamentals, not on short-term changes in its float.