Just three days after the initial public offering (IPO) and during the initial rally, Jim Cramer opined on X that SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock was a ‘monster’ at $200.
At the time, the post was jokingly criticized by the former hedge fund manager’s social media followers, including enterprise accounts and some prominent figures such as Tiffany Fong, in accordance with the popular meme that his bullishness tends to be a harbinger of disaster.
SpaceX trading at $200… Monster!
— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) June 15, 2026 By press time on June 30, however, the joke turned serious as the SpaceX rocket took a stock market nosedive shortly after recording its $225.64 all-time high (ATH).
Indeed, while they have recovered slightly from the lows they hit late last week, SPCX shares are changing hands at $164.99 on Tuesday morning. Therefore, Elon Musk’s newer public company lost $17.51 of its value from the time Jim Cramer declared it a ‘monster.’
In other terms, an investor who decided to put $1,000 into the equity upon seeing the social media post would have suffered a $175.10 unrealized loss – provided they did not rush for the exit in the meantime – by press time on June 30.
SpaceX stock price one-month chart. Source: Google Was Jim Cramer bullish on SpaceX stock ahead of the crash? Simultaneously, it is worth pointing out that Jim Cramer remained skeptical throughout the SpaceX launch upsurge and, indeed, declared it a ‘meme rally’ of a ‘meme stock’ that was unlikely to be sustained.
Indeed, even the CNBC host’s forecast made during the uptrend that he anticipates the shares of SPCX to climb one point per hour was likely ironic given the rest of his commentary from the period.
Maybe it's okay to you, but I would hate to see a meme stock–what SpaceX stock has become–walked to the size of Nvidia over a series overnight moves with no sellers. But that seems to be the goal. Maybe early release of those who want to go?? I am uncomfortable watching a stock…
— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) June 16, 2026 What is next for SpaceX stock in 2026? Elsewhere, the SpaceX rocket and nosedive dynamic was, arguably, to be expected given the extreme IPO valuation of the company and the historical performance of similar previous offerings.
Additionally, the SPCX shares’ recent downturn is unlikely to prove permanent, and the equity will enjoy strong tailwinds as soon as July 7, as its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 has been confirmed for the date.
SpaceX stock is likely to launch into the stratosphere once more, both in the days preceding the event and especially later in the month as index funds begin their automatic buying of the equity.
Lastly, the firm’s subsequent performance is harder to gauge as, on the one hand, major insiders will slowly be gaining the ability to sell – a fact they might be keen to take advantage off given the severe mismatch between the firm’s financials and market capitalization – but on the other, Wall Street experts overall appear confident the SPCX stock trajectory will remain upward at least by 2027.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%), more commonly called SpaceX, has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride during its first couple of weeks as a publicly traded company. This likely surprised nobody, since there was so much hype before the IPO on June 12. But what about the coming months? By the end of 2026, SpaceX's stock will have had time to stabilize, but I predict it won't be in a place that bulls love.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
How big is the market's appetite for risk? When you have a company like SpaceX, which isn't producing any profits, isn't growing super-fast, and is mostly promising investors a share of a big future, how well the stock does relates directly to the market's risk appetite. This can change by the day, and currently, we're in a downturn for risk appetite.
The move to caution may increase as we get closer to November's midterm elections. And growing skepticism about corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI) could further dampen investors' appetite for risk. SpaceX is partly an AI company as a chunk of its business is xAI, the company behind Grok. SpaceX acquired xAI not long before it went public, and it's raising significant money to build out its AI computing footprint.
Like many of the AI hyperscalers, there hasn't been a meaningful return on investment yet, and it's a lot of spending now to secure the future. However, the difference between SpaceX and some of the hyperscalers is that it doesn't have as strong a base business to generate cash.
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This could be the Achilles' heel of SpaceX's stock. Its current cash cow, Starlink, can't fund all of its parent company's aspirations in AI and space exploration. This may cause the sentiment for the shares to turn negative, sinking their price. But by how much?
Wall Street's current estimates for 2026's revenue are about $37 billion. Expensive stocks trade for 20 times sales. Best-in-class stocks with huge upside and a safe market may trade for 30 to 40 times sales.
If SpaceX traded for 50 times sales, that would price the stock at a market cap of $1.85 trillion, assuming it hits analyst growth projections, and that would be down about 14.5% from Monday's close. That same drop would put the share price at $140, below the stock's opening price of $150 on June 12. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX shares are far lower than that in six months.
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX will bypass traditional public market seasoning requirements to enter the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. This regulatory shift triggers an estimated $4.3 billion in forced institutional buying just weeks after the initial public offering. Paired with a rumored terrestrial backhaul partnership that positions Starlink Mobile to immediately challenge legacy telecom providers, SpaceX commands a near-term liquidity catalyst capable of temporarily overriding structural valuation headwinds.
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Index Gravity Squeeze: Front-Running the $4.3B Fast-TrackUsually, a newly public enterprise waits months or even years to join major market indexes. Nasdaq recently amended its eligibility framework, allowing mega-cap initial public offerings (IPO) to enter the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days. For SpaceX, a $2.10 trillion aerospace sector giant, this fast-track inclusion fundamentally alters the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics.
When a stock enters a major benchmark, passive funds tracking that index have no choice but to buy. These institutional funds do not evaluate price-to-sales ratios or profitability metrics. Their sole mandate is to replicate the index weight accurately.
SpaceX Today
$164.05 +10.82 (+7.06%)
As of 06/29/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$147.11▼
$225.64Price Target$212.67
J.P. Morgan modeling indicates that the July 7 reconstitution will require approximately $4.3 billion in mechanical passive inflows from benchmarked funds such as the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ. This incoming capital heavily compounds the estimated $3 billion SpaceX already absorbed from a recent fast-track inclusion into the Russell 1000 index.
This immense institutional buying pressure currently meets a structurally constrained supply of shares. Post-IPO lock-up agreements restrict early investors and executives from immediately liquidating their equity.
Approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale only after the first public earnings release on Aug. 6. The absence of this float severely restricts available liquidity leading into the July index event.
When billions of dollars of indiscriminate capital chase a capped share count, the resulting friction creates a highly predictable pre-inclusion price squeeze. Smart active managers often front-run these events, accumulating shares beforehand and forcing prices higher as the passive index funds scramble to secure their required allocations before the closing bell.
Ground Control to Charter CommunicationsBeyond the immediate mechanics of index arbitrage, a massive shift is occurring in how broadband and mobile data reach global consumers. Executive-level negotiations are reportedly advancing between SpaceX and Charter Communications Inc. NASDAQ: CHTR to route Starlink Mobile traffic through established terrestrial networks.
Understanding the significance of this move requires examining the massive capital expenditures required by traditional telecommunications. Legacy operators spend tens of billions of dollars laying fiber-optic cables and erecting cell towers to maintain their regional monopolies. Starlink Mobile aims to bypass much of this physical infrastructure by beaming connectivity directly from low Earth orbit to consumer devices. Space-to-ground data transmission requires foundational ground-based routing to handle heavy consumer traffic loads efficiently without severe latency.
Securing ground-based backhaul through a partner like Charter Communications allows Starlink to scale operations as a direct-to-consumer wireless provider instantly. SpaceX can challenge terrestrial network monopolies without bearing the prohibitive costs of building physical infrastructure.
This dual approach of dominating the orbital layer while piggybacking on existing terrestrial fiber rapidly accelerates the timeline for market capture against incumbent wireless carriers like Verizon NYSE: VZ and AT&T NYSE: T. The broader space infrastructure sector benefits heavily from these macro tailwinds as satellite broadband capabilities reach pricing and speed parity with legacy fiber networks, unlocking a massive new global subscriber base.
SpaceX Valuation Floats in the ExosphereAggressive physical and technological expansion requires monumental capital, and fixed-income markets are eager to fund it. SpaceX recently settled a five-tranche, $25 billion unsecured senior bond offering, stretching debt maturities out to 2056.
Institutional order books peaked near $90 billion, demonstrating robust willingness to finance heavy space-based capital expenditures. The proceeds explicitly retire a $20 billion bridge loan tied to earlier xAI infrastructure acquisitions, eliminating near-term maturity risk and securing a longer operational runway for massive satellite deployments.
Still, SpaceX’s current stock price reflects immense future expectations rather than current operational efficiency. At around $165 per share, the market capitalization sits at a towering $2.1 trillion. With annual sales of $19.3 billion, SpaceX commands a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 108. Investors are effectively paying roughly $108 for every single dollar of revenue SpaceX currently generates. Earnings data from May 7, prior to the public listing, showed a $1.27-per-share quarterly loss, contributing to an estimated $4.9 billion annual net deficit.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, June, 30, 2026
Institutional coverage is increasingly highlighting this fundamental disconnect between price action and core business metrics. Analysts at Morningstar explicitly labeled the $2 trillion valuation as stretched, assigning a much lower fair value of $780 billion. Argus Research recently initiated coverage with a cautious Hold rating.
These financial models warn of potential multiple compression once the Aug. 6 lock-up expires and restricted shares flood the open market. Bondholders are also scrutinizing the lack of current profitability, leading to slight weakness in secondary-market trading as credit spreads widen relative to risk-free Treasuries.
Brace for Re-Entry on August Lock-Up ExpirationThe immediate trajectory for SpaceX relies heavily on market mechanics rather than traditional earnings growth or deep value metrics. The $4.3 billion mandatory allocation from index trackers creates an undeniable short-term demand shock. Strategic investors often capitalize on this exact type of market structure, recognizing that forced institutional buying creates price inefficiencies that operate completely disconnected from fundamental valuation models.
Simultaneously, the broader space sector remains highly attractive as direct-to-device satellite communication transitions from a conceptual technology to a commercially viable reality. Strategic partnerships that provide terrestrial backhaul validate the Starlink business model and open up massive new addressable markets previously locked down by regional telecom providers.
Investors looking to navigate this specific environment might consider closely monitoring the daily trading volume leading up to the July 6 closing bell. The mechanics of index inclusion offer a clear, near-term liquidity catalyst for SpaceX, but cautious market participants may prefer to wait for the Aug. 6 lock-up expiration to assess how early insiders handle their newly liquid equity before committing long-term capital to the aerospace leader.
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The biggest initial public offering (IPO) is now history. The blockbuster public debut of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.15%) earlier this month more than doubled the previous record, raising $85.7 billion.
The stock has already been on quite a ride. Where does it go from here? Here's what history suggests the next year will look like.
How the biggest IPOs in history have performed Let's start by looking closely at the biggest IPOs in history before SpaceX. The data is somewhat mixed, but the first year is rocky for three of the five.
CompanyYearCapital Raised
(2026 Dollars)3-Month
Return1-Year
Return5-Year
ReturnSaudi Aramco2019$38 billion-23.3%-8.6%-10.8%NTT DoCoMo1998$37 billion-10%47%-48%Enel1999$37 billion-3%2.1%-15.5%Alibaba2014$35 billion62.7%-6%165.4%Visa2008$28 billion91.5%19.7%254.5% Hyped IPOs have fared even worse If, instead, we look at not just the largest stocks, but some of the most hyped in recent memory -- stocks that had a strong narrative driving hefty valuations at launch -- we see an even bleaker picture:
CompanyPrice to Sales (P/S) at IPOFirst yearFacebook28x-34%RivianN/A-78%Robinhood17x-75%Snowflake82xUnchanged What academic research says about IPO returns Jay Ritter of the University of Florida has tracked IPOs for decades, and his data set is considered the gold standard. His foundational 1991 paper is still relevant today. It showed that IPOs reliably pop on day one, then underperform comparable companies during the following one to five years on average.
However, if you look closely, that underperformance doesn't hold for big companies. For larger businesses, he found little difference.
That's something to keep in mind, but I think things have shifted somewhat significantly over time. A more recent Truist study of the past 30 major IPOs found that returns skew negative at both the six-month and 12-month marks, with the average for each sitting around -9%.
Here's why: Companies go public at very different points in their lifecycles today than they did 25 years ago. There is so much private capital available from VC firms and private equity that companies today don't need to lean on the public market until they're much more mature.
And that often means the serious, exponential growth public investors are hoping for has already happened -- or at least a much larger share of it -- while the business was still privately held.
Why SpaceX's best growth may already be behind it I think that's more or less the situation here. SpaceX was valued at roughly $500 billion just one year ago (that includes the $113 billion valuation of xAi, which was a separate entity at the time). It was less than a 10th of that a decade prior.
Its current $2.2 trillion valuation has already baked in an enormous amount of revenue growth. So, even if the company delivers strong double-digit percentage returns for years and manages to turn a profit, it's got plenty of road to cover before its earned its valuation.
Image source: Getty Images.
And more immediately, you have a pretty major issue to contend with: dilution. Despite the dollar value of the SpaceX IPO, the company only sold an unusually small portion of itself to public investors -- about 4%.
During the next year, the shares of company insiders and early investors will be unlocked and available for sale. These will outnumber the current available shares many times over. The first unlock alone, which comes in August, will double the supply of shares available for sale.
Of course, there's no way to know how many will actually be sold, but even a small portion of the total during the next year would be a serious drag on the stock price.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Snowflake, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%) opened to the public on June 12, it started trading at $150 per share, closing the day at just under $161.
Because of the price movements throughout that day, however, the returns, and in some cases losses, for anyone who bought shares on June 12 will vary greatly. Still, it's possible to look at a few different scenarios and what those shares may be worth.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investing $5,000 in the SpaceX IPO For the returns for the SpaceX stock price, we'll use the June 26 closing price of $153.23. But first, we'll start with what that $5,000 investment may have bought investors. Since the price traded all over the place on IPO day, we'll look at three potential price points at which shares may have been bought: $150, $160, and $176.
With such high demand for the stock, CNBC reported that investors were having difficulty getting their full orders filled at $150 per share. As one example from that report, one investor using Robinhood Markets requested 1,000 shares but only received 17.
That means, most likely, many investors were paying above $150 and up to $176, with a little more than $176 being the highest the stock price reached on the day. With the stock price closing just under $161, some investors may have bought shares around there, waiting until near the end of the day to see how things played out before making a move.
The early returns Anyone who bought $5,000 worth of shares at $150 per share would have bought roughly 33 shares. With shares trading at $153.23 at the end of Friday's close, that $5,000 investment would be worth $5,107.
Anyone who invested $5,000 and bought at around $161 would have received 31 shares. Those 31 shares were worth $4,750 at Friday's close.
Finally, anyone who bought $5,000 worth of shares at around $176 would get a little more than 28 shares, making that investment now worth roughly $4,351.
Among the scenarios listed above, many investors may be looking at early losses or only slight gains. The good news for anyone who hasn't sold is that those gains or losses are still just on paper. SpaceX hasn't traded for an entire month yet, so its long-term potential is still evolving.
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As a company with capital-intensive operations with bold plans to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in space that is also losing money, investing in SpaceX is about what's possible in the future.
Focusing on the risks SpaceX will face, the rewards it can capture, and the volatility shareholders will need to stomach is more productive for shaping an investment decision than focusing on recent gains or losses.
Major indexes have begun to add Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +7.18%), which should provide support for the stock.
SpaceX officially joined the Russell 1000 today and is gearing up to join the Nasdaq-100, which comprises most of the world’s largest artificial intelligence and tech stocks.
On Friday, the Nasdaq announced that SpaceX will join the Nasdaq-100 and officially begin trading in the index on July 7, assuming the company meets all of the index’s requirements.
Joining indexes is viewed positively by investors because it triggers forced buying. Funds that track these indexes will have to purchase SpaceX.
SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 just 15 trading days after its initial public offering, making it the fastest ever to accomplish such a feat. The stock traded roughly 5.7% higher, as of 2:48 p.m. ET.
Is it time to buy?
Image source: Getty Images.
The SpaceX exceptionThe market has been well aware that SpaceX would join several major indexes right away, making it appealing to traders looking to move in and out of the stock in the near term.
In fact, many indexes, such as the Nasdaq-100, revised their eligibility criteria to allow SpaceX to join earlier than usual.
The Nasdaq-100 created a new fast-track provision for large companies to enter the index. Under this provision, the Nasdaq will now rank a newly listed stock on its seventh day of trading to see whether it ranks among the top 40 members of the index.
If it does and the company meets all other criteria, it can join the Nasdaq-100 following its 15th day of trading. Under the previous rules, the Nasdaq-100 rebalanced only once a year, so it would depend on when a company went public.
The Nasdaq-100 also changed other eligibility criteria, such as eliminating a rule that required companies to have at least 10% of their outstanding shares publicly traded. SpaceX issued only 4% of its outstanding shares in its IPO.
Is the stock a buy?Being added to major indexes like the Nasdaq-100 is certainly bullish for SpaceX. More than $800 billion of investor money follows the index.
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However, as I mentioned, the market is well aware of this, and I believe it’s part of why SpaceX succeeded in raising nearly $86 billion in its IPO and popped on day one of trading.
Investors also likely understand that more SpaceX shares will hit the market.
Lock-up provisions will start to expire soon after the company reports its second-quarter results, allowing insiders and employees to sell shares they received when the company was private.
The lock-up provisions expire on a staggered basis until 180 days after the IPO, in which all insider shares, other than those owned by CEO Elon Musk, can be sold.
The shares coming to market will put pressure on the stock, so I expect the next five to six months to be volatile. The stock is likely to do well when it joins new indexes, and likely to struggle some around lock-up expiration dates.
That’s why I think investors would be well served to wait on the sidelines until after these mechanical factors have passed. SpaceX remains a very exciting company, but much is still uncertain about its technology, plans, and market projections.
The company already trades at a market cap of roughly $2.1 trillion, implying investors are baking in some success before it happens, so I’d remain patient.
Additionally, allowing the market to digest the stock and the company to report earnings over a few quarters will provide much more information for decision-making.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%) went public early this month with a record-setting debut. The company raised $85.7 billion in all and ended its first day of trading at a record market cap of $2.1 trillion, the highest-ever for a company just out of the starting gate. The stock has been volatile since its historic debut and currently trades near the roughly $161 price it commanded at the end of its first day of trading.
Investors have a new reason to be bullish. After the market close on Friday, Nasdaq announced that SpaceX would be added to the Nasdaq-100 beginning on July 7, marking one of the quickest ever additions to the high-profile index. This follows changes to the inclusion criteria, which were updated just last month. The Nasdaq-100 tracks the performance of the roughly 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
News of its inclusion has shareholders wondering anew what the stock could be worth in six months. History offers some compelling clues.
Image source: Getty Images.
A vote of confidence?Being added to the Nasdaq-100 is certainly a momentous development for SpaceX, and some might even see it as a vote of confidence for the company. Its inclusion will increase demand for the stock, as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the index will buy shares to reflect the index's changing composition.
That said, any increased demand -- and resulting boost to the stock price -- will be short-lived. Once the obligatory purchases are made, investor attention will return to SpaceX's prospects and financial performance. In all likelihood, the stock's volatility will continue for the foreseeable future.
It's all about the BenjaminsTo be clear, SpaceX's future performance will depend on the company's financial performance, which has yet to live up to the hype. In 2025, the company reported revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% year over year, but posted a net loss of $4.9 billion under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The results are slightly better on an adjusted basis, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $6.6 billion -- so the company has yet to generate a profit.
However, SpaceX has been making progress on that front. The company's artificial intelligence (AI) segment, xAI, has inked several notable deals, signing agreements with Anthropic, Alphabet, and AI start-up Reflection AI, totaling $27.8 billion in annual revenue -- so SpaceX is already on track to surpass last year's performance.
History is the best teacherWhile the company's recent deals and inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 are certainly positive developments, investors are curious to see how SpaceX will fare by the end of the year, and history offers some tantalizing clues.
Truist equity analyst Sam Grelck compiled data from the 30 largest IPOs over the past 15 years. More than half of these newly minted stocks were underwater by the end of the first week. Within six months of the IPO, 17 of 30 stocks were in the red. For context, SpaceX stock has already fallen below its IPO price of $150 and is trading only slightly higher now.
CoreWeave had the best track record of the bunch, up 217% after six months, but was down as much as 65% during the year. Rivian Automotive was the worst-performing stock of the bunch, down 77% in the first six months after falling as much as 88% before the first year came to a close. The full data is illustrated in the chart below.
Image Source: Truist.
It's clear that the range of possible outcomes is vast. If SpaceX follows the example set by CoreWeave, for example, a $10,000 investment could be worth as much as $31,700. However, if it follows the road that Rivian took, that same $10,000 investment could be worth as little as $2,300.
One factor weighing against SpaceX is the stock's pricey valuation. The company currently has a market cap of $2.1 trillion. Using its 2025 revenue, the stock is selling for 112 times sales. Adding the new deals highlighted above to the company's first-quarter 2026 sales of $4.7 billion, SpaceX is on track to generate $38.6 billion in revenue this year, so it's still selling at roughly 54 times forward sales. It has a long way to go before its valuation could be considered reasonable.
For context, Palantir Technologies, which is often bashed for its high valuation, sells at 37 times forward sales, highlighting the growth expectations for SpaceX.
As the above data shows, newly public companies -- particularly high-profile issues -- tend to lose altitude during their first year. While SpaceX could be the exception that proves the rule, I wouldn't bet my hard-earned money on it.
Key Takeaways State Street launched its Nasdaq 100 ETF last week, and BlackRock's could land soon. Both could press the Invesco QQQ ETF on the fees investors pay.Nasdaq 100 is set to add SpaceX to its index next week, which means the funds tracking it will have to buy the stock. Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
When the biggest game in town has competition, customers stand to benefit.
Invesco's QQQ (QQQ), a Nasdaq-100 tracking exchange-traded fund, is just about synonymous with the index it tracks—and among the biggest ETFs, with roughly $480 billion in assets under management, according to VettaFi. But it's getting more competition from some big ETF shops: State Street (STT) and BlackRock (BLK) want to compete with the first mover almost three decades after the fact. That stands to be a good thing for investors, because when issuers hit the market with virtually identical products, they tend to woo customers with lower expenses.
WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU When index-tracking ETFs compete with one another, they can start a fee war. That can bode well for investors' wallets.
Indeed, State Street's SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 fund (QNDX) launched last week, charging 0.10%, which means for every $10,000 invested, one would pay $10 in annual management fees. That's lower than QQQ's current 0.18% fee. BlackRock's iShares, meanwhile, filed in April to launch its own product using the symbol "IQQ." (It hasn't said what it plans to charge.)
The proliferation of Nasdaq 100 funds stands to boost shares of SpaceX (SPCX), which is set to join the tech-heavy index next week. Per Nasdaq's fast-tracking rule change that went into effect in May, stocks with less than a 33.3% float—how much of the company's overall shares are available to the general public to trade—will be weighted in the index at a maximum of three times its float value. Given SpaceX's modest float of around 550 million shares, it will likely have a weight in the index at under 1%, because as of March 2026, a company with a float of $180 billion had a 1% weighting in the Nasdaq 100.
With that said, one doesn't necessarily need to use Nasdaq 100 funds to add tech exposure to one's portfolios. Other ETFs also do that without being associated with the index—and those who are already invested in a S&P 500 fund or a total market fund also have substantial tech exposure.
Vanguard's Information Technology ETF (VGT), for example, has an expense ratio under 0.1%. It tracks a different index from MSCI.
There's been a fair bit of volatility around Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.18%) within just its first few weeks of trading. The stock, also known as just SpaceX, briefly reached astronomical levels that put its valuation higher than Microsoft's, as it approached $3 trillion in market cap. It ended up retreating back to around the level it was at on its first day of trading, as there have already been big swings thus far.
There could be even more volatility ahead, as the Nasdaq has recently loosened rules around which stocks can join the Nasdaq-100. SpaceX could be eligible to join the index after just 15 trading days, and that means it could be part of the index as early as next week.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why this could lead to a surge in SpaceX's stock The Nasdaq-100 rebalances regularly to reflect changing valuations. The index is comprised of the 100 most valuable non-financial stocks on the Nasdaq exchange, based on market cap. With SpaceX already at $2 trillion and among the most valuable companies in the world, it's a lock to join the index. And now with the Nasdaq making it easier to do so, it's simply a matter of time before it happens.
The day that it joins the index is expected to be July 7. Once that happens, many portfolios will have exposure to SpaceX simply by owning exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including the highly popular Invesco QQQ Trust. This creates forced buying, which can have significant upward pressure on the space stock, pushing it to new heights.
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SpaceX's stock may get a bump up from getting added to the Nasdaq-100, but that doesn't mean the rally is going to last. This is still a fairly expensive stock to own, with tremendous downside risk given that the company isn't profitable and it's spending heavily on artificial intelligence and space. Investors who invest in funds that track the index may also be tempted to sell them in an effort to reduce risk. It's by no means a slam dunk that SpaceX's stock is going to take off next week.
Plus, what's ultimately most important when investing is looking at the big picture, which includes not only a company's growth prospects but also its fundamentals and valuation. SpaceX isn't an attractive buy due to both its lack of profitability and extremely high valuation. It still has a lot to prove, which is why I'd tread carefully with it; taking a wait-and-see approach may be best.
David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prior to its historic initial public offering (IPO), investors spent countless hours pouring over the S-1 filing of Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.05%). Wall Street fixated on one aspect above all others: SpaceX's financials.
Headlines and analyst notes repeatedly zeroed in on the company's relatively modest revenue base compared with the trillion-dollar valuation attached to the business. Moreover, operating losses from unproven artificial intelligence (AI) investments added fuel to the skepticism.
For most investors, SpaceX's balance sheet became the central lens through which they evaluated the offering. While an acute focus remained on the company's near-term revenue and profitability potential, a far more important number was buried deep in the prospectus.
Let's dig into some of the finer details surrounding the SpaceX IPO to better understand management's alignment with long-term investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investors should not overlook lockup agreements When a company goes public, it is not uncommon for IPO stocks to pop during their first few days of trading. Most investors probably assume this pronounced price appreciation is driven by early investors taking advantage of outsized momentum. This isn't entirely how investing in IPOs works, though.
Major shareholders such as board members, C-suite executives, and other insiders must abide by something called a lockup agreement. Lockups are contractual restrictions that prevent certain shareholders from selling stock for a defined period after a company goes public.
These provisions are important because they prevent an immediate flood of share supply into the market. By requiring insiders to hold their positions for a certain period of time, lockups also represent alignment between a company's leadership and its new outside investors, encouraging a focus on long-term shareholder value rather than short-term profits.
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SpaceX has a tiered lockup structure SpaceX implemented a staggered, multi-tranche lockup structure rather than a single blanket expiration. For the majority of pre-IPO stockholders, shares become eligible for sale in increments of roughly 7% at the 70-, 90-, 105-, 120-, and 135-day marks following the IPO. Additional tranches unlock following the release of quarterly earnings.
In addition, there are some early-release provisions tied to earnings announcements or stock price performance that can change the flow of lockup shares becoming available. But overall, the tiered design is meant to spread out potential selling across several months, aiming for more organized trading and reduced volatility compared with a sudden, uniform expiration and potential gigantic block sale.
When can Elon Musk sell his SpaceX stock? Of note, Elon Musk is held to a stricter lockup period relative to his constituents. Under his arrangement, Musk cannot sell any of his SpaceX shares until 366 days after the IPO date. To me, this is the most important figure in SpaceX's prospectus.
The extended restriction contrasts with the staggered releases available to most other SpaceX insiders. Holding Musk to a more stringent lockup reflects both the substantial voting power and economic value he holds in the company.
Even after his lockup expires, I think a sudden, large-scale sale by Musk is highly unlikely. Any meaningful disposal of his equity would flood the market with new shares, leading to sharp value deterioration of his remaining stake. This self-inflicted damage is counterintuitive to both his long-term financial interests and his vision of making SpaceX a multidecade project rather than a vessel for near-term liquidity needs.
Along the same lines, even after joining Tesla over 20 years ago, Musk recently completed a complex options exercise that actually increased his overall ownership even decades after building the company into a trillion-dollar enterprise.
While Musk will have the legal ability to sell some SpaceX stock next year, I think both the economics of his ownership and his history with other companies make gradual, strategic transactions far more rational. In my eyes, Musk's 366-day lockup is best viewed as an alignment vehicle that is structurally reinforced beyond its formal expiration date.
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SpaceX Stock Will Join The Nasdaq-100 Index On July 7
This Unlikely Growth Stock Is Breaking Out. It Has Nothing To Do With AI — Yet
Stock Market Week Ahead: Rotating, For Now, Away From The AI Boom Implied volatility for SpaceX (SPCX) options has plummeted alongside the share price, which has fallen sharply from 225 to 155 in just a couple of weeks. Is the party over? Not necessarily. While sentiment has turned negative, SpaceX stock still has the same extremely limited float that was made public during the initial public offering. The stock won't receive a…
Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow speaks with the CEO of Rocket Lab about the company's biggest bet yet: buying Iridium in an $8 billion deal to challenge SpaceX in the orbital economy. Plus, South Korean firms, including Samsung and SK Hynix will spend at least $880 billion on chips and data centers, as the country seeks to maintain its edge in the AI era; and Anthropic wins US approval to restore some access to its Mythos 5 AI model after resolving concerns about the technology's potential threats to national security.
Some of the most talked-about and innovative companies over the past couple of years have been Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.05%) (commonly known as SpaceX), OpenAI, and Anthropic. SpaceX is an aerospace leader, OpenAI has a case for being the world's leading AI company, and Anthropic has become ultra-popular with its Claude AI operating systems.
SpaceX recently completed its initial public offering (IPO), so if you're interested, you can buy shares as you normally would. OpenAI and Anthropic are still private (though markets anticipate their IPOs sooner rather than later), so investing in them isn't as straightforward.
One way to get a piece of all three companies is to buy Cathie Wood's Ark Venture Fund (ARKVX +2.95%), which holds a stake in all three, along with roughly 70 others. It's not the right move for every investor, but it's worth exploring if you're interested in early access to private companies.
Image source: Getty Images.
The Ark Venture Fund is a bit different While exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contain only public companies, the Ark Venture Fund held roughly 70 public and private companies as of late May. Here were its top 10 holdings as of that date:
CompanyPercentage of Ark Venture FundSpaceX11.38%OpenAI8.48%Anthropic6.40%Tenstorrent Holdings4.52%Kalshi3.96%Replit3.49%Ayar Labs3.17%Figure AI2.99%Absci Corp.2.38%Cellares2.34% Source: Ark Invest. Data as of May 31.
This fund is not an ETF. Ark notes it is "an actively managed closed-end interval fund that seeks long-term growth of capital by investing both private and public equities securities of companies that are relevant to the Fund’s investment theme of disruptive innovation." At any given time, this Ark fund is likely to hold considerably more private companies than public ones.
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Interval funds like the Ark Venture Fund don't trade on stock exchanges like the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange. Instead, you need an account with one of its partner platforms (such as SoFi or Robinhood) to access it. The minimum initial investment is $500, and although you can buy into the fund at any time, you can only sell your shares during specific quarterly windows when the fund repurchases shares from investors in limited quantities. So you wouldn't necessarily be able to sell all the shares you want to. The fund caps its repurchases at 5% to 25% of its total outstanding shares.
The fund doesn't come cheap This is an actively managed fund, and like most, it has steep fees:
Management fee: 2.75% Service fee: 0.15% Interest payments and other expenses: 0.59% Although the fees add up to 3.49%, the fund is currently offering a reimbursement of 0.59 percentage points, bringing the expense ratio to 2.90%. That's in place indefinitely but can be removed at any time, provided 60 days' written notice is given.
For perspective on how expensive 2.90% is for a fund, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is 0.03%, the Schwab U.S. Dividend ETF is 0.06%, and Ark Invest's Ark Innovation ETF is 0.75% (which I consider expensive). The Ark Venture Fund has far outperformed all three since its inception, which you could use to justify the fee, but that might not always be the case, and it really adds up over time.
If your goal is to get access to specific private companies with as few barriers as possible, the Ark Venture Fund makes sense. If you're doing it specifically for OpenAI and Anthropic, you may be better off waiting until they go public and eventually join an index such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100.
It has hardly been two weeks since Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (Nasdaq: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, went public, but the Elon Musk-led company is already poised to achieve another significant stock market milestone.
Next month, it will be added to the Nasdaq 100. Here’s what that means for the company—and for you.
What’s happened?On June 26, just 15 days after SpaceX made its stock market debut on June 12, Nasdaq announced that the space and AI company will be added to the institution’s closely watched Nasdaq-100 Index.
And that 15-day timing? It’s fast, but it’s not exactly a surprise.
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In May, Nasdaq changed its rules for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. Previously, a newly public company would take months or more before joining. But under the new rules, the inclusion window was reduced to just 15 days from its IPO if the company ranks among the top 40 Nasdaq-100 companies by market cap.
While Nasdaq never specifically mentioned SpaceX when announcing its new Nasdaq-100 timeline rules, many in the investing sphere feel the company did so to court Elon Musk and get him to list SpaceX’s shares on Nasdaq rather than the rival New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
What is the Nasdaq-100?The Nasdaq-100 is an index of “100 fundamentally sound and innovative” companies that are traded on the Nasdaq, according to the stock exchange itself.
David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, went on CNBC this morning and did something most guests on financial television will not do when the subject is Elon Musk. He used the word “bubblicious” about a stock he owns.
The stock is SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), which IPO’d on June 12, 2026 and currently carries a market cap of roughly $2.12 trillion. The engine inside it was Starlink, the satellite-broadband division running roughly 9,600 low-earth-orbit satellites, and Musk’s stated ambition is to turn Starlink into a global mobile network competing with terrestrial carriers. Now, though, the real engine is xAI.
Starlink is the part Bahnsen is willing to entertain. The price tag is not. SpaceX trades at roughly 83 times revenue, and Bahnsen’s argument is that even a wildly successful Starlink does not get you there.
The bull case and the Elon factor Bahnsen entertains the dream. On CNBC, he framed the upside as a mix of operational reality and narrative gravity. “Now when you add a space element to it and just the Elon factor, there’s an aspirational component. 120 times revenue. I don’t know. I mean, that sounds to me like a pretty bubblicious story.” The aspirational component is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Investors are paying up for an outcome where Starlink takes meaningful share from terrestrial carriers using satellites that can talk directly to phones, anywhere on the planet, without towers.
After pricing the IPO at $135 and briefly touching above $225, SPCX now trades at $160. The average post-IPO buyer is probably at or below breakeven since most retail investors did not get the chance to hit buy at $135.
The math problem with 83x revenue Even granting the Musk-as-telecom-disruptor thesis, Bahnsen argues that comparable businesses on Earth trade at a fraction of where SpaceX trades. “What would the multiple be on that if it did exist? It would be a teens multiple, not a hundreds multiple. Like we’re just not talking about a business that’s that.”
Verizon (NYSE:VZ | VZ Price Prediction), the telecom analog, trades at a trailing PE of 11x, an EV/EBITDA of about 8x, and a price-to-sales of 1.4x. Its Q1 2026 results, filed with the SEC here, showed adjusted EPS of $1.28 and revenue of $34.44 billion, with fiber broadband connections up 41.9% year over year following the Frontier Communications close.
T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS), the growthier of the two, trades at a PE of 19x and a price-to-sales of 2.2, despite delivering 962,000 postpaid phone net adds in Q4 and 9.4 million broadband customers.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Bahnsen’s framing is that these are the right comps because they have to be. “Verizon is basically a very heavy capex business that will always have a low multiple, but it’s a high dividend and reasonably stable company. SpaceX expanding the Starlink thing, we just accept it’s a very heavy capex business.” Satellites and rockets are arguably more capex-intensive than cell towers and fiber, not less.
You should keep in mind that SpaceX obviously deserves a richer premium than Verizon, no matter what the experts say. Valuing SpaceX by using mature telecom companies as the yardstick leaves out AI, which is where most of its valuation comes from.
Bahnsen’s own position and the lockup clock The wrinkle is that Bahnsen owns SpaceX. His exposure is via a Barons SPV that remains locked up for another year, which means he is making the bear case on valuation while sitting on shares he cannot sell.
He has indicated he will likely sell at lockup expiration unless Starlink starts producing revenue growth that would close the gap between a teens-multiple business and a triple-digit-multiple stock.
Prediction markets seem to share the ambivalence. End-of-July contracts on Polymarket show near-50/50 odds across a $90 to $210 range, which is the prediction-market equivalent of a shrug. The composite sentiment score sits at 59.08, neutral with medium confidence.
If Starlink starts publishing subscriber and ARPU numbers that look like a credible challenger to Verizon and T-Mobile, the 120x revenue print gets easier to defend.
If it does not, Bahnsen’s teens-multiple math becomes the dominant frame, and the lockup expirations across the SpaceX SPV ecosystem start to matter.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Rocket Lab is buying Iridium Communications in an $8 billion cash-and-stock deal – equipping the rocket maker with a global satellite network and wireless spectrum in what looks like a bid to compete against Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
The deal is the latest in a flurry of aerospace tie-ups involving satellite operators in the past year: Globalstar agreed in April to be acquired by Amazon.com, while Luxembourg-based SES completed its purchase of Intelsat last year. SpaceX also agreed to acquire spectrum assets from EchoStar.
Iridium – which logged $114 million of net income on $872 million in revenue last year – operates a network of 66 low-Earth-orbit satellites that provide connectivity for handsets and other equipment used by ships, mining operations, U.S. government agencies and other customers. The company’s spectrum rights are especially valuable because they can be used worldwide.
Rocket Lab said combining its launch business and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s global network and spectrum rights would strengthen its position in the market. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Rocket Lab’s purchase values Iridium shares at $54 apiece, implying an enterprise value of about $8 billion for the McLean, Va.-based satellite operator, Rocket Lab said Monday. Iridium stock closed at $43.52 on Friday and has climbed in recent weeks as investors increasingly focused on the value of the company’s spectrum holdings.
Rocket Lab shares rose 6.8% in Monday trading, while Iridium stock jumped 20.8%.
The acquisition comes as SpaceX continues to expand its satellite services among consumers and government customers, which has spurred rivals to make moves while fueling consolidation across the satellite industry.
SpaceX’s Starlink business uses the company’s own rockets to keep launch costs down and has a constellation of roughly 10,000 satellites.
While SpaceX dominates heavy-lift launches and operates the large Starlink broadband constellation, Rocket Lab has specialized small satellite launches.
Iridium has faced growing questions in recent months over how much of a threat SpaceX poses to its business, which connects specialized phones through satellites.
Iridium was an early pioneer in low-Earth-orbit satellite networks, launching its first satellites nearly 30 years ago. Christopher Sadowski
Rocket Lab’s purchase better positions it to rival Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Xavier Collin/Image Press Agency / BACKGRID Rocket Lab said combining its launch business and satellite manufacturing operations with Iridium’s global network and spectrum rights would strengthen its position in the market. The company plans to eventually build a revamped satellite fleet to overhaul Iridium’s existing constellation.
Rocket Lab began as a launch provider roughly 20 years ago but has spent the past several years expanding into satellite manufacturing and operations through a series of acquisitions. Company executives have repeatedly said they want to operate their own satellite network rather than only build and launch spacecraft for customers.
Iridium was an early pioneer in low-Earth-orbit satellite networks, launching its first satellites nearly 30 years ago. The company later filed for bankruptcy before reorganizing.
“Success will come from those who can bring new innovations to space quickly and sustain them over time as efficiently as possible,” said Iridium Chief Executive Matt Desch in announcing the deal.
Cathie Wood has been picking up her trading activity in recent days. The co-founder, CEO, and chief investment officer at Ark Invest capped off a busy week with several purchases for her firm's exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specializing in growth opportunities.
Wood wrapped up the week by buying shares in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%), Circle Internet Group (CRCL 0.12%), and Palantir (PLTR +2.13%) on Friday. She was adding to existing positions in all three stocks. Let's take a closer look.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. SpaceX After 10 days of trading, no one should be surprised that SpaceX stock is volatile. What is a bit shocking is that shares of the record-setting IPO are basically where they were when they opened at $150 on their very first trade. Two weeks in, SpaceX is trading just 2% above its initial price.
It's a somewhat different story if you got in ahead of the IPO. If you were connected enough to receive shares from a deal underwriter, you paid $135 a share. You have a respectable 14% gain on your position, but even then, it's still a bit disappointing. Unlike SpaceX's actual rockets, this recent market debutante is still waiting to take off.
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Analysts are all over the map on this one. The stock's target prices range from $310 -- more than doubling from here -- to $62, down more than half. The valuations are not for the timid.
With its market cap above $2 trillion against only $19 billion in trailing revenue, you will find a lot of investors unwilling to pay more than 100 times revenue for a stock that is already one of the largest on the planet. There are only six U.S. exchange-listed companies with a larger market cap.
There is a successful business here. SpaceX's Starlink serves vital connectivity in underserved markets. Its flagship launch business continues to lead the way in an industry on the rise in more ways than one. You'll have to wait until next year for positive adjusted earnings and the following year for reported profitability to launch. If it can make the leap from today's fleet of partially reusable rockets to its next-gen Starship that is totally reusable, it can be a game changer in driving costs lower for the industry. You shouldn't dismiss SpaceX's long-term potential, even if it's hard to make much of a valuation argument these days.
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2. Circle Internet Group Another IPO that has gone on a wild round trip to nowhere is Circle Internet Group's stock. It hit the market last June at $69. It's gone as high as $299 and as low as $50, but today the issuer of stablecoin products trades for less than 7% above its frenzied IPO price.
The volatility seems out of line here. Circle offers blockchain solutions for the cryptocurrency market, but its business largely consists of stablecoins, which, true to their name, aim to maintain relatively stable pricing. Its primary product, USD Coin, remains tethered to the $1 price point.
Revenue growth slowed to 20% in its latest quarter, but that's more than respectable, given how many digital currency trading platforms and crypto miners are struggling. Analysts see revenue accelerating next year with a 40% top-line jump in 2027. If it succeeds, Circle will probably stop going in circles.
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3. Palantir We close with Palantir stock, and it's not the first time Wood has added to the analytics software provider in the past week. Like SpaceX and Circle, Palantir is trading well below its recent high. The stock is 46% below the all-time high it scored almost eight months ago.
Palantir's business continues to accelerate. Revenue soared 65% in this year's first quarter, following a 70% increase in its previous report and a 56% jump for all of 2025. Palantir dabbles in some thorny defense and security operations, but it's made strides in porting its wins with U.S. federal agencies and government contractors into lucrative partnerships with commercial businesses in the private sector.
Palantir has more than $8 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet and no long-term debt other than its current lease obligations. One of the market's most expensive growth stocks a year ago now has a forward earnings multiple in the double digits. Betting against Palantir could be a mistake at this point. Wood is a buyer.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%), better known as SpaceX, has three distinct parts of its business -- rocket launches, satellite internet, and the xAI artificial intelligence business. While the first two are certainly impressive, market-leading businesses, the AI division has produced the biggest headlines in recent months.
In fact, although xAI was the biggest drag on SpaceX's bottom line in 2025, it's starting to look like 2027 and beyond could be a very different story. Here's how SpaceX's new AI compute business has already more than doubled its revenue, where it could go from here, and why investors should pay attention.
Image source: Getty Images.
Three AI compute deals -- so far Here's a quick rundown of where SpaceX's AI compute business stands today. And keep in mind that all of this is revenue that didn't exist prior to its IPO:
First, Anthropic signed a deal to access more than 300 MW of compute capacity and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. This agreement brings in $1.25 billion per month for SpaceX through May 2029. That's $18 billion per year from this deal alone. Next, Google signed a compute deal that begins in October and runs through June 2029, giving the hyperscaler access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and is expected to generate $920 million in monthly revenue. Finally, the smallest of the three deals, but still a highly significant development, is a deal from fast-growing start-up Reflection AI to access Nvidia chips at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center for $150 per month. Combined, the three deals will provide about $2.32 billion in monthly revenue, or $27.8 billion annualized. Keep in mind that SpaceX's business -- including Starlink, the rocket launches, and xAI -- combined for $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. Even though Starlink and the rocket business continue to scale rapidly in 2026, this has more than doubled SpaceX's revenue.
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Not only has this generated revenue, but it's also an example of a savvy way to turn a problem (xAI was using only about 11% of its compute capacity for its own purposes) into a win.
Who could be next? SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 that it "expects to enter into additional similar services contracts for compute capacity with third parties," and while this statement was made before the most recent deals, it indicates that this business could be a big part of the company's AI future.
There's no way to know who might be next, but there's no shortage of potential compute customers. Other AI providers, such as OpenAI, are an obvious example, as are hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT 1.22%).
Of course, companies like Microsoft, Google, and others can (and do) build their own data centers -- that's a big portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures they've announced for 2026. But a capital-light approach (renting instead of owning) is likely starting to look more appealing, especially now that the AI build-out is scaling to the point where these companies are being forced to take on more debt and spend all of their free cash flow to keep up.
In addition to any of the other potential customers who will undoubtedly need more computing power in the future than they do today, it's also important to mention that there's certainly the possibility that the three existing customers could expand their deals over time. For example, Anthropic's business has grown tenfold in the past year, and if it continues to grow exponentially, the company's compute needs could get much larger.
Why is this so important? Not only have SpaceX's three AI compute deals more than doubled its revenue, but they could also be a big step forward in showing investors a path to profitability. In fact, the AI compute business has the potential to become the highest margin part of SpaceX. Consider that other GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV 1.54%) operate at gross margins near 70%, and in SpaceX's case, margins could be even higher as SpaceX's Colossus data centers were already built and were simply underutilized. Now, Starlink has excellent margins, but the AI compute business has massive potential for both top-line growth and producing billions in free cash flow.
To be clear, even with all of this in mind, SpaceX is still not a cheap stock. Even if the company's revenue run rate reaches $50 billion by the end of 2026, it will still be valued at about 40 times sales (based on the current stock price) and will lack any established track record of profitability. So, I'm not saying that SpaceX is a buy based on its AI compute business itself. There's a lot that will need to go well throughout its business to ultimately justify the current valuation.
Having said that, the progress in the AI compute business has been impressive to say the least. If SpaceX can continue to build it out, it could be a big win for the company and its investors.
Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.13%) debuted on June 12, securing its position as the largest initial public offering (IPO) in market history. The stock's first three days were fiery. It closed out its third day with a share price of about $202, about 50% higher than its IPO price of $135.
Since then, gravity has brought SpaceX back down to Earth. Although it still trades above its IPO price, shares have dipped below $155. They're now only slightly higher than the first opening price at $150 per share.
Analysts, on average, assign that stock a price target of about $188, with some predicting an even higher share price of $310 (some, however, forecast a price as low as $62). At the average price target, SpaceX has an implied upside of about 24%, which suggests that today's sell-off might be creating a buying opportunity.
Be that as it may, SpaceX could get bumpier before it smooths out. If history tells us anything, those bumpy parts might create a better buying opportunity for long-term investors than today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX is without precedent, but its IPO is following predecessors' SpaceX has a very unusual business. It's an eccentric mash-up of recent advances in technology, from artificial intelligence (AI) to satellite deployment to space-based connectivity. That's not to say it lacks a core purpose -- it wants to make humanity "multiplanetary" -- but its businesses differentiate it from most young companies, which focus on one or two things before expanding into something new.
SpaceX is generating billions in revenue, with its Starlink internet services raking in most of that revenue. On its own, that part of the business pulled off a $4.4 billion operating profit in 2025, despite the full business posting a net loss of about $5 billion. Although the company is not profitable yet, it thinks its total addressable market is $28.5 trillion -- a massive opportunity, if the figure is accurate.
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That $28.5 trillion revenue estimate was published in its IPO filing in late May, and by mid-June, excitement had reached a feverish pitch. As with many IPOs with massive capital raises, however, that enthusiasm has all but fizzled out now.
That leads us to this: Most IPO stocks have aggressive first days, but their first year on the market can be underwhelming. Take Meta Platforms, formerly Facebook. The stock's debut was a cultural phenomenon; its first year on the market was a deflating 32% loss.
Rivian Automotive is another example of an IPO flop. After opening with an initial price of $78 a share, Rivian became the second most valuable carmaker in the U.S. The stock now trades at about $14.50, down about 89% from its opening price.
Obviously, I'm cherry-picking examples to prove a point. We could, for the sake of fairness, name other high-profile IPOs, like Visa, that were extremely successful in their first year. SpaceX still has over 250 trading days to join them.
Valuation-wise, SpaceX does not look like a good deal right now, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 105 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of roughly 59. Long-term investors who can patiently wait to buy may want to do so, as the expectations built into this stock could easily turn against it.
Key Takeaways SpaceX's rapid Nasdaq-100 entry could trigger billions in passive fund inflows. A limited public float may amplify the stock impact of index-related buying. Space and leveraged ETFs offer multiple ways to capitalize on SpaceX momentum. SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) is poised to become one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, triggering a new wave of demand from passive investors less than a month after its blockbuster public market debut. Nasdaq announced after the close on June 26, 2026 that SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the technology-heavy benchmark.
If all requirements continue to be met, index funds and other investment products tracking the Nasdaq-100 will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with the stock officially joining the index before trading opens on July 7, as quoted on CNBC.
The rapid inclusion highlights the impact of Nasdaq's recently introduced fast-track framework for newly public companies. The updated rules allow certain large IPOs to qualify for the Nasdaq-100 after only 15 trading days.
Billions in Passive Assets Could Fuel DemandMore than $800 billion in assets track the Nasdaq-100, including the popular Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ - Free Report) , as mentioned on the same CNBC article. The index is tech-heavy and QQQ is widely viewed as a key gauge of the artificial intelligence-driven market rally. The QQQ ETF currently has an asset base of $481.6 billion.
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM - Free Report) has about $98.3 billion in assets. Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQQE - Free Report) has about $1.36 billion in assets. ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dorsey Wright Momentum ETF (QQQA - Free Report) has about $79.6 million in assets.
Limited Float Could Amplify Buying PressureThe CNBC article went on to note that SpaceX is expected to enter the benchmark with a weighting of less than 1%. Even so, the addition could generate substantial buying activity, thanks to the investor mania to trade space stocks.
Note that SpaceX has already ranked among the market's most actively traded stocks since its June 12 debut. Besides passive funds, active managers that closely track the benchmark could also adjust their holdings.
SpaceX's publicly tradable float – meaning the total number of shares available to everyday investors – remains relatively small compared with its overall market capitalization. This means even a sub-1% index weighting could translate into meaningful share purchases by index-linked investment vehicles and fund issuers.
ETFs in Focus Against this backdrop, investors can keep a close eye on SpaceX-focused ETFs. As of now, pure-play space ETFs like Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX - Free Report) , Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA - Free Report) , Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) , Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI - Free Report) , VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS - Free Report) , and Procure Space ETF (UFO - Free Report) are among the available options.
There are leveraged ETF options too. These include 2x leveraged ETFs like Leverage Shares 2x Long SPCX Daily ETF SPCH, Defiance Daily Target 2x Long SPCX ETF SPCU, T-REX 2X Long SpaceX Daily Target ETF (SPAX - Free Report) , Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2X ETF LOFF, and Tradr 2X Long SpaceX Daily ETF (SPCM).
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) went public on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 in a roughly $75 billion offering, ran to a peak of $225.64 on June 16, then gave back about 18% on the week to land near $147 to $148 by June 23 to 26. As of this morning SpaceX is trading at $155.
If you watched the parabola from the sidelines and now feel like you missed the move, the data says you missed a specific move, the IPO pop, and that one is not coming back. What you can still get is a cheaper entry into the same conglomerate, and there is one non-sentiment reason that matters.
The mechanical buyer waiting in the wings Anticipated Nasdaq-100 inclusion is the cleanest reason to own SPCX at this price. When a name enters the index, every fund tracking it has to buy proportional shares on a defined rebalancing schedule. This is regardless of whether portfolio managers like the valuation.
That is forced demand, and SpaceX’s market capitalization at $2 trillion, clears the size bar with room to spare. Treat inclusion as a probability-weighted catalyst rather than a scheduled date. But the mechanics are real, and they create a known buyer in a stock currently dominated by emotional retail flow.
Why the pullback can be a good entry The IPO priced at $135, surged above $200, and has since been repriced inside a tight band near $150.
SpaceX is the dominant launch provider. It has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023 with a Falcon mission success rate over 99%, plus Starlink’s approximately 9,600 satellites serving customers across 164 countries, territories, and other markets, plus the xAI acquisition in early 2026 that bolted an AI franchise onto the platform.
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You are buying that mix today below where many of the post-IPO crowd was bidding. That said, you should only expect gains in the long term since SPCX can still sell off more from here.
The risks that deserve real weight The bear case carries real weight. Q1 2026 showed revenue near $4.7 billion but an operating loss, meaning the cash engine still consumes capital even at this scale. There is no dividend, so total return depends entirely on multiple expansion and execution.
Analyst price targets span $115 on the sell side to $165 on the bull case, a 50-point spread that captures genuine valuation disagreement between a conservative $780 billion framing and the roughly $2 trillion market cap implied today.
Reddit’s weekly sentiment score sits at 34.52, bearish, and the top-engagement post reads “SpaceX stock tumbles 16.4%, shaving off most IPO gains since debut”. The stock is also a newly public name still in volatile price discovery, with lock-up expirations ahead that could deliver real supply shocks.
What you are buying after the IPO pop You missed the IPO pop, which was a one-time event and is over. What remains is a launch, connectivity, and AI platform trading well below its post-IPO peak, with a credible mechanical catalyst in possible Nasdaq-100 inclusion and an analyst consensus target of $187.80 against the current $155. For a retirement-focused investor, position sizing matters: build the position in tranches over several months, sized so a double-digit drawdown would not change your long-term retirement plan.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Earlier this month, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.98%) offered investors one of the biggest investing events of all time: its initial public offering. SpaceX raised $75 billion for the largest IPO on record, and went on to bring in a total of more than $85 billion after underwriters exercised an overallotment option. The IPO was greatly oversubscribed, and the stock jumped nearly 20% in its first day of trading from its $135 IPO price. So it's clear investors were eager to get in on this growth story right away.
Since, SpaceX has given back some of its gains -- but it's still trading higher than its IPO price. In the coming weeks, certain events will unfold, and they could trigger movement in the stock price. The first such happening is right around the corner, on July 7. Should you buy SpaceX before that time? Let's find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why investors are buying SpaceX We'll get started by taking a look at why investors have rushed to invest in SpaceX in the first place. SpaceX, as its name suggests, is a leader in rocket launches, with a focus on reusable technology to bring down costs. It's completed a total of 650 orbital launches, 85% using at least one reused booster, and last year the company executed the greatest number of launches compared to rivals. SpaceX's next big goal for this space unit is the launch with payloads to orbit of its reusable rocket, Starship.
This tech and industrial giant has two other units, connectivity and artificial intelligence (AI). So far, the former, called Starlink, has quadrupled subscribers over three years to its satellite-based internet service, and this business is driving revenue. Last year it brought in $11.4 billion on the company's total of $18 billion in revenue.
All of this is exciting, particularly for investors seeking growth. However, the AI business, while promising, may be the area of concern for some investors. This is because it requires significant investment as we can see from last year's figures. The AI unit's capital expenditures reached $12 billion, and that brought the company to a loss.
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Investing in Elon Musk It's important to note that Elon Musk, chief of Tesla, also is the founder and CEO of SpaceX. Musk is known for his innovations and ambitions, and certain investors seek to invest in a particular company because Musk is at the helm. That said, other investors feel quite the opposite and avoid companies led by Musk -- they worry his ambitions are too lofty and won't reach the finish line or generate profitability.
All of this has created a great deal of interest in the SpaceX IPO -- from investors eager to get in on this growth story and from investors who are happy to watch from afar and potentially invest later on.
Now, let's consider what's on the agenda this coming week and whether you should buy the stock ahead of time. SpaceX is about to benefit from a new fast-track arrangement that allows stocks to join the Nasdaq-100 much more quickly than in the past.
What's happening on July 7 The company will be added to the index, which represents the biggest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq, on July 7. According to the new criteria, a stock may be added as of its 15th trading day if it's among the 40 largest Nasdaq companies by market capitalization. SpaceX, with a trillion-dollar market value, clearly makes the cut.
In the past, a company would have to wait three to 14 months for inclusion.
Here's why the addition to the Nasdaq-100 could move SpaceX's stock price. Funds that track the index must buy shares of any new additions so that they may continue to mimic the index's performance. This flurry of buying activity may push SpaceX stock higher on and around the day of its addition. So, if you buy SpaceX a few days earlier, you might quickly benefit from a pop in the stock price.
Does this mean you should buy SpaceX before July 7? Not necessarily. These short-term movements are minimal and won't have an impact on your long-term returns. (It's also important to note that SpaceX does involve a certain level of risk so is best for aggressive investors.) Finally, if you are interested in investing in SpaceX, the best ideas are to buy the stock on a dip or opt for an exchange-traded fund that holds the shares.
Investors looking for the best time to buy SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock may want to wait a few more weeks before starting a position, according to insights shared by OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
The recommendation was based on a review of SpaceX’s recent trading activity, upcoming Nasdaq-100 inclusion, valuation metrics, and broader market dynamics.
To this end, ChatGPT identified the period shortly after July 7 as the most attractive potential entry point for SpaceX.
The analysis suggested investors could benefit from waiting until index-related buying pressure subsides and the market reassesses the company’s valuation.
The main catalyst is SpaceX’s scheduled addition to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Notably, the inclusion is expected to trigger billions of dollars in purchases by index funds and exchange-traded funds tracking the benchmark.
While such inflows can provide short-term support for the stock, they often create temporary demand that fades once the rebalancing process is complete.
According to ChatGPT’s analysis, this dynamic increases the likelihood of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction, where investors who accumulated shares ahead of the event take profits after the inclusion takes effect.
As a result, the AI model identified the period between mid-July and early August as the most favorable window for investors seeking a better risk-reward setup.
The timing becomes even more important given the stock’s sharp swings since its public debut in June.
Notably, after debuting at $135, SpaceX climbed to a post-IPO high of $225 before pulling back, reflecting the market’s debate between the company’s growth potential and its valuation.
SpaceX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold SpaceX key entry positions ChatGPT noted that the stock still prices in significant future growth, leaving it vulnerable to short-term corrections, especially around major catalysts such as the Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
Based on current conditions, the AI identified $150 to $170 as a reasonable entry range, while a pullback to $140-$150 would offer a more attractive risk-reward setup. A move below $140 could present one of the best buying opportunities since the IPO.
At the same time, buying above $170 appears less attractive given potential post-inclusion volatility and valuation concerns.
While cautious in the near term, ChatGPT remains positive on SpaceX’s long-term outlook.
The analysis identified Starlink as the company’s key growth driver, supported by rising demand for satellite connectivity and SpaceX’s leadership in commercial space launches.
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SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) , which made a historic Wall Street debut on June 12, 2026, has just ended its first full week as a public company on a sour note, with shares down about 13%.
The stock is now hovering around the $150 level at which it began trading. This triggered speculation that the SpaceX stock walk on the trajectory of several high-profile listings that eventually fall below their offer prices.
Massive Bond Deal Raises Fresh QuestionsAdding to the debate, SpaceX last week priced a $25 billion bond offering that attracted nearly $90 billion in investor demand, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. While such overwhelming interest typically signals strong confidence, some investors are questioning why a company that recently raised enormous sums through its IPO would need to tap debt markets so quickly for billions more.
Wall Street Debates Bubble RisksThe bearish argument is that the company is garnering as much capital as possible, as long as the winning trend in the space and AI arena is its friend. After all, bubble fears in the AI space are far from over.
Any Bright Factors in the Stock? Ambitious Growth Plans AheadAhead of the IPO, Musk said SpaceX had been cash-flow positive since around 2015 and was entering a major growth phase, per a CNBC article. The company plans to deploy more than 100,000 satellites, expand its communications network, and build artificial intelligence data centers in space.
SpaceX's profitable engine remains its Starlink satellite internet business, although the company has expanded significantly through acquisitions, including Musk's AI venture xAI and social media platform X.
Also, just days after its record-breaking Nasdaq debut, SpaceX announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire AI startup Cursor in an all-stock transaction valued at $60 billion. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.
Space-Based Data Centers Gain AttentionBlue Origin founder Jeff Bezos recently told CNBC that space-based data centers are technologically feasible, though commercial deployment may take longer than many investors expect (read: Space ETFs Skyrocket in May: Can the Rally Last?).
Meanwhile, Alphabet is reportedly developing a space-data-center initiative known internally as “Suncatcher,” with test launches expected in 2027. Google is also said to be discussing a rocket launch partnership with SpaceX, according to the WSJ. The satellites will be equipped with Google's custom proprietary AI chips, Tensor Processing Units, to process AI workloads directly in orbit.
Why Investors Are Turning Bullish on SpaceThe economics of the space industry have improved dramatically over the past two decades. Launch costs have dropped roughly 90%, largely due to reusable rocket technology pioneered by SpaceX.
The global space economy reached $613 billion in 2024, according to Space Foundation, as quoted on Saxo. According to McKinsey, the global space economy could expand to $1.8 trillion by 2035 from $630 billion in 2023.
Government spending is also acting as a major catalyst, as countries increasingly treat space infrastructure as strategically important for both defense and commercial purposes.
Solid Hiring in the Space EconomyRecent government data showed that the rate of job growth within the space economy has topped the broader labor market. The space economy is growing globally, at an annual rate of 9%, according to the World Economic Forum, as quoted on CNBC.
Space-sector employment grew by 27% in the decade through 2024, far outdoing total private-sector employment growth at 14%, per the same CNBC article.
SpaceX Set for Rapid Entry Into Nasdaq-100SpaceX is poised to become one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, triggering a new wave of demand from passive investors. If all requirements continue to be met, index funds and other investment products tracking the Nasdaq-100 will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with the stock officially joining the index before trading opens on July 7, as quoted on CNBC.
ETFs in Focus As the road ahead is mixed with possibilities and perils for SpaceX, investors can consider Space ETFs instead of the stock itself. The basket approach minimizes the company-specific risks.
As of now, pureplay space ETFs like Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX - Free Report) , the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA - Free Report) , Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) , Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI - Free Report) , VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS - Free Report) and Procure Space ETF (UFO - Free Report) are choices to play, though with a higher risk quotient as these funds do not possess sector diversification.
Key Takeaways SpaceX soared after its IPO, then fell as valuation concerns and broader tech weakness hit sentiment.SPCX faces price-discovery volatility, with lock-up expirations potentially adding selling pressure.SpaceX's AI data center deals aid revenue outlook, but analysts see premium valuation as a key risk. Founded by Elon Musk in 2002, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker (SPCX - Free Report) on June 12, in a historic initial public offering (IPO). Headquartered at the Starbase development site in Starbase, TX, the rocket, satellite and AI company raised $75 billion from its record-breaking IPO.
The stock increased by 19% from its initial price of $135 per share, within 24 hours of going public. A surge in SpaceX's stock price after its blockbuster debut made Musk the first person with a net worth of more than $1 trillion.
After a flying start, the stock has given back most of the gains, falling about 20% in a week and slipping below its $150 debut price before recovering slightly. Bearish momentum in the broader market led to sharp declines in technology and AI stocks, like Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) . Profit-booking and concerns about SPCX's valuation have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. There are also growing concerns among market participants about an AI bubble that could destabilize markets, particularly if the Federal Reserve proceeds with interest rate increases.
SpaceX carries a valuation of nearly $2 trillion despite generating less than $19 billion in annual revenues, leaving little room for disappointment. Looking ahead, there could be more volatility as SpaceX enters its price-discovery phase. Investors are also watching upcoming insider lock-up expirations, which could release millions of additional shares into the market and increase sales pressure. While the company has ambitious plans spanning reusable rockets, Starlink, AI data centers, and even space-based computing infrastructure, many of those projects remain long-term bets that will require enormous investments before producing meaningful returns.
Still, not everyone believes the story is turning negative. Some analysts argue that the recent sell-off is simply part of the normal price discovery process that follows major IPOs, especially one with such a limited public float. Although new AI data center deals have strengthened its revenue outlook, many analysts believe its premium valuation erases cause for concern, making the stock a high-risk bet despite its long-term potential.
SpaceX currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseThe company says it is buying Iridium Communications as a ‘shortcut’ to expanding its growing capabilitiesJune 29, 2026, 10:07 a.m. ET
Rocket Lab said Monday it plans to acquire Iridium Communications, positioning the expanding company as a head-on rival to SpaceX and its Starlink satellite-communications business.
The “historic” acquisition will make Rocket Lab RKLB a “fully vertically integrated space powerhouse primed for growth,” the company said in a statement. It will give the company a foothold in a variety of space-based applications, including direct-to-device communications, Rocket Lab said.
SpaceX's $25 billion foray into debt markets appeared to be well received by bond markets last week, with huge demand for the offering.
But one of the biggest-ever AI bond issuances, less than two weeks after SpaceX's IPO, has highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations — and posed a diversification challenge for investors.
Why SpaceX tapped debt marketsThe group tapped debt markets on June 22, announcing a senior unsecured notes offering, with sources telling CNBC that the company was looking to raise $20 billion, which was then increased to $25 billion. The company said it would use the net proceeds to "repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full, to pay related fees and expenses, and any remaining amount for general corporate purposes."
SpaceX stock soared after its hotly-anticipated IPO. Last week's debt issuance dented investor confidence.
SpaceX received nearly $90 billion worth of orders, people familiar with the fundraising previously told CNBC. They asked not to be named because the details are private.
But the move appeared to unnerve equity investors, with SpaceX falling more than 13% for the week after a strong post-IPO run.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said SpaceX will increasingly have to "work hard to make itself heard," adding there are plenty of offerings from more profitable concerns that can steal the limelight.
"Equity investors are one thing, but bond guys are the grown-ups in the room," Beauchamp told CNBC via email. "SpaceX might find it has its work cut out for it, but I suspect the market can absorb the issuance overall."
"The timing certainly isn't great, but we have seen brief bouts of panic like this before, and the wagon tends to roll onwards in the end."
Christopher Della Fave, senior vice president, capital markets at Post Oak Group, said: "Two weeks after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX is already tapping debt markets while carrying a $5 billion net loss and capex that more than doubled year over year."
Why SpaceX bonds raise diversification questionsDella Fave said SpaceX's losses and high capital expenditure aren't "alarming" in isolation, as "capital-intensive growth companies run hot."
However, he highlighted "the structural issue" that "investors aren't pricing in."
"Owning SPCX equity and SpaceX bonds isn't diversification," Della Fave added. "It's the same execution risk across two instruments."
"Starlink has to scale. Starship has to work. Both the equity story and the debt service depend on it. For portfolio construction, we treat total SpaceX exposure as a single concentrated position regardless of instrument, the same way you'd approach any single-name technology bet dressed up as a multi-asset allocation."
SpaceX's multi-billion-dollar debt issuance means many investors have become exposed to the group via two different asset classes – equities, via its blockbuster IPO on June 12 – and now, corporate bonds.
"Nearly all investors already hold allocations to US technology and the purpose of bonds as an asset class is surely to diversify," Julian Howard, multi-asset head at Gam, told CNBC on Friday.
He pointed out that SpaceX's 10-year issue is trading at a relatively tight spread to the equivalent U.S. Treasury of 1.4 percentage points.
In the debt sale, SpaceX priced bonds in five different tranches, with notes due between 2031 and 2056. Rates vary from 5.35% for the 2031 bonds to 6.65% for the 2056 notes.
"While that is comfortably ahead of inflation, the risk will be that spreads will widen if there is any hint of SpaceX not meeting its ambitious revenue targets, or if the outlook for tech and AI falters in any way," he added.
In the long term, SpaceX faces two big challenges in the markets, said Morningstar chief investment officer Mike Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetize gains," he told CNBC.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
Key Takeaways Nasdaq on Friday said SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 index on Monday, July 7.The move means shares of Elon Musk's company will soon be added to popular index-tracking funds like the Invesco QQQ Trust. Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
Shares of SpaceX rose premarket Monday, advancing following the news that the company will soon be added to an influential tech index.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock was recently up 1.5% at above $155. Nasdaq late Friday said the company will join the Nasdaq 100 index before the open on Monday, July 7.1 The move follows five other changes to the index announced earlier this month as part of periodic rebalancing.2
The move was widely expected after Nasdaq and other index providers made moves ahead of the company's June 12 IPO to speed the path of mega-IPOs—including SpaceX, but also expected offerings from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI— into their measures. Still, investors have watched closely for confirmation of the changes, seen as giving the shares a boost because of buying by funds that track the index; the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is the most widely known.
A number of indexes had already added SpaceX, leading to buying from funds at Vanguard, BlackRock, and other asset managers. Active managers are also buying: Several of Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management funds, including the flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), bought shares on Friday, according to trade disclosures.
SpaceX shares finished last week a bit above $153, leaving them little changed after two weeks of trading relative to the price where they first opened. It's been a busy two weeks, with the stock so far both rising above $226 and dipping below that $150 open price. They've yet to approach their $135 IPO price, though.
Elon Musk said SpaceX would release new AI models "trained from scratch" every month. WEF/Getty images It's all hands on deck at SpaceX as the company plays catch-up in the AI race.
Elon Musk said on Sunday that SpaceX had deployed "a few dozen" top Starlink and Starship engineers to help overhaul its Grok model.
"The SpaceXAI cadence of model and harness improvement is speeding up tremendously, particularly due to a few dozen of the top Starlink/Starship engineers shifting much of their time to AI," wrote Musk in a post on X.
The billionaire added that engineers from Cursor, the AI coding startup that SpaceX agreed this month to buy for $60 billion, were also working on the new foundation model, which was partly trained on Cursor training data.
Musk said that Grok 4.5, the latest version of the chatbot, was now in private beta at Tesla and SpaceX, and posted that SpaceX would release new models "trained from scratch" every month this year.
Musk's efforts to take the lead in the AI race have faced roadblocks in the past few months.
The Tesla CEO overhauled xAI, the AI startup he founded in 2023 to take on OpenAI and Google, earlier this year in a sweeping reorganization that saw the last of the company's 11 cofounders depart.
XAI's Grok has lagged rival AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic, especially on coding, and Musk wrote in March that xAI was "being rebuilt from the foundations up."
In February, Musk merged xAI with SpaceX, and the deal to acquire Cursor was confirmed shortly after the rocket company's record-breaking $85 billion IPO earlier this month.
The deal cemented the meteoric rise of Cursor, an AI coding startup led by 25-year-old Michael Truell, and saw SpaceX grant Cursor access to the company's supercomputers in return for help training Grok.
Deploying top Starlink and Starship engineers to overhaul Grok is the latest sign that SpaceX is going all in on AI. Musk has said the company will use the windfall from its mega-IPO to build a network of up to a million orbital data centers, built on Starlink technology and carried into space by Starship, that will train and run increasingly advanced AI models.
In its investor materials presented before the IPO, SpaceX estimated its total addressable market was worth $28.5 trillion, of which AI accounts for $26.5 trillion.
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For most of its lifetime, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) has been a rocket stock: The first private company to put a rocket in orbit, the first to launch and then land a rocket -- then launch it again -- and the company that cut the cost of spaceflight by as much as 75%.
These were SpaceX's claims to fame.
Then came the SpaceX IPO, and with it, the publication of SpaceX's IPO prospectus. When SpaceX at long last revealed its financial data to the world, it became obvious to investors that SpaceX might be an artificial intelligence company (because SpaceX hopes to make most of its money from xAI). Or SpaceX might be a satellite communications company (because Starlink is SpaceX's only profitable division).
But the one thing investors can no longer think about SpaceX is that it's a rocket company.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Read the prospectus Or can you? Digging deep into the SpaceX prospectus last week (and skipping past the AI parts, which do not interest me at all), I stumbled upon a surprising revelation:
Yes, the Starlink "Connectivity" business is amazingly profitable for SpaceX, generating $4.4 billion in operating profit last year. Yes, the "Space" (i.e., rockets) business appears to be faltering, flipping from a $21 million profit in 2024 to a $657 million operating loss in 2025.
But the reason why is that SpaceX is subsidizing Connectivity at SpaceX.
And it's doing this on purpose.
The secret truth about SpaceX's rockets Here's how SpaceX describes this:
For launches of our Starlink satellites, the Company does not recognize any inter-segment revenue, rather those launch costs are capitalized in satellites in Property, plant, and equipment, net. We allocate a significant amount of launch capacity to our Connectivity segment, and expect to allocate a significant amount to our AI segment in the future. Our Space segment revenue only reflects our customer launches and customer activities.
Furthermore:
For launches dedicated to deploying our Starlink satellites, we capitalize the associated costs within our Connectivity segment and depreciate them over time, and we do not recognize revenue for those launches in our Space segment.
What does this mean? A few things, actually.
SpaceX's Space business is more profitable than you think For one, it tells us that out of the 170 rocket launches that Space conducted in 2025, of which 122 were launches of Starlink satellites and five were Starship test flights, SpaceX only actually charged anyone for 43 launches. An investor can't simply divide Space's $4.4 billion in revenue by 170 launches and conclude that SpaceX is making $26 million per launch. Instead, one must divide $4.4 billion by the only 43 launches for which SpaceX charged anyone anything.
And that results in an average launch price of $102 million.
And Starlink may be less profitable than it appears SpaceX's Prospectus also tells us that when launching a Starlink satellite, instead of Space charging Connectivity upfront for that launch, Connectivity counts the launch as part of the cost of building the satellite. Then Connectivity depreciates the satellite (and the launch) over time.
This doesn't necessarily lower Connectivity's costs, because the cost is still there. But it does lower Space's revenue, because Space is getting zero revenue from launches it performs for Connectivity.
Image source: SpaceX.
What this means for investors Translation: Despite the apparent lack of profits, Space could be an incredibly profitable business for SpaceX if SpaceX allowed it. If Space were to charge $102 million per launch, times 170 launches a year, it would be raking in $17.3 billion in revenue annually -- instead of just $4.4 billion.
This would almost certainly turn Space profitable.
But what about Connectivity -- the apparent powerhouse providing all of SpaceX's profits? In the short term, absorbing launch costs into the construction cost of Starlink satellites boosts profitability. This is because the launch cost isn't recognized and subtracted from profit immediately, but instead spread out and depreciated over each Starlink satellite's five-year lifespan.
So what's the upshot? Does this mean SpaceX's Connectivity profits are "fake?"
No.
Not fake, exactly, but rather front-loaded. As Starlink satellites are depreciated over time, they'll weigh more and more on the Connectivity division's profitability. If you're not just in SpaceX stock for the momentum trading, but plan to hold it as a long-term investment, this is something you'll want to keep in mind.
I'd also point out that SpaceX's approach makes sense from a "telecom stock" perspective. Rival telcos such as Verizon, AT&T, and Comcast also build long-lived assets that both generate revenue and depreciate over time. (In their case, it's just fiber and cable wires instead of satellites for SpaceX.)
These terrestrial telcos still manage to earn operating profit margins of 15% (AT&T) to 23% (Verizon), according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. SpaceX may not be able to maintain its own 38.6% operating margin at Connectivity, but it might still do as well as or even better than its rivals.
We'll need to keep close track of the numbers, though, to see how this works out over time -- because as it turns out, the most important favor SpaceX's launch business does for Starlink isn't just launching satellites.
It didn't take long for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), popularly known as SpaceX, to make a major move after its initial public offering. Fresh off raising $86 billion from the IPO, it announced that it's acquiring Anysphere, the developer of the AI-powered code editor Cursor. It's a $60 billion purchase that will be paid for entirely in new shares of SpaceX stock, and it's expected to close in the third quarter. Here's why that's a big deal, and what it means for shareholders.
The $26.5 trillion opportunity There are various reasons investors are enthusiastic about SpaceX, but its artificial intelligence (AI) business probably doesn't top the list. People are excited about Elon Musk, his vision for a multiplanetary humanity, space travel, and even the Starlink satellite broadband business. But SpaceX only acquired xAI -- the part of the company that holds its AI segment -- earlier this year, and while it generated $818 million in revenue in 2026's first quarter, it also reported a $2.5 billion operating loss.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, an investment in SpaceX really is an investment in AI. Musk and Co. view the company as having what they say is "the largest actionable total addressable market in human history" -- $28.5 trillion.
And if you think that's all based on space and satellites, it's actually nearly all based on their outlook for AI. The company asserts that it has $26.5 trillion in AI opportunities, and $22.7 trillion of that is in "enterprise applications."
If that sounds incredible, it's worth keeping in mind that the entire U.S. gross domestic product for 2026 will be about $31 trillion.
What Cursor brings to the table xAI's business is nothing to sneeze at, though. Its large language model, Grok, is one of the most widely used LLMs. Although it's more heavily used by individual users, xAI has Grok deals with large customers like the U.S. Department of Defense and prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket, and the LLM is built into Tesla electric vehicles.
However, it faces fierce competition from leading rivals like Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Alphabet's Gemini. Musk himself described Grok as being in fifth place in the space, with China's open-source Deepseek in fourth place. All of these tools presumably are competing for slices of the same total addressable market.
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Cursor is an autonomous coding agent, and many high-profile companies have deals to use it, including Nvidia. These are the enterprise deals that Musk is after. Anysphere also has an annualized revenue of $4 billion, which will pad SpaceX's top line.
SpaceX stock still looks overvalued, and the addition of Cursor's revenue won't help the company turn a profit overnight. But it does bring the company some important AI capabilities and make it more financially sound. That could help it get closer to becoming investment-worthy at some point in the future.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX has had a wild first few weeks as a public company.
The shares, priced at $135 in the company’s record June 12 IPO, surged to an intraday high of $225.64 by June 16, and then slid to around $153 by June 27.
That is a drop of roughly 32% from the peak, even though the stock is still above its IPO price.
The first thing investors need to separate is price from value.
A stock falling 32% can feel cheap because it is no longer trading at its recent high. But that does not automatically mean the valuation makes sense.
As per market data, SpaceX was still trading at about 107 times 2025 sales after the pullback.
That is an extreme multiple, even by the standards of AI and space-infrastructure stocks. Nvidia, by comparison, recently traded at roughly 21 times sales.
The financial picture also shows why some investors are cautious. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025, even as revenue reached $18.7 billion.
The business is growing fast, led by Starlink and its launch dominance, but it is not yet profitable at the group level.
That is the core bear-case argument. SpaceX may be one of the most exciting companies ever to hit the public market, but the stock is still priced for years of huge execution wins.
Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens has one of the clearest cautious views on the stock.
The analyst gave the company credit for its launch cost advantage, Starlink’s scale and the possibility of orbital AI infrastructure. It still comes out well below where the market is trading the stock.
Owens wrote that SpaceX shares are likely to look “overvalued in almost any scenario, at least in the near term”.
Morningstar also said long-term investors may get “more margin of safety” later, when lockups expire and more shares become available for sale.
That lockup point is important as SpaceX has a small public float, meaning only a limited portion of its shares can currently trade.
When supply is tight and demand is intense, prices can swing violently.
As more insider and employee shares become eligible for sale later this year, the market will get a better test of where natural demand really sits.
None of this means SpaceX is an empty story.
The company dominates the global space launch. As per analyst estimates, SpaceX launched 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth in 2025, nearly 10 times more than its nearest competitor.
Starlink is another pillar of the bull case. The satellite broadband business has become SpaceX’s clearest path to near-term cash generation, helped by its ability to launch satellites at in-house cost.
Starlink is expected to remain the company’s main cash-flow engine in the medium term, the analysts noted.
Index demand may also support the shares in the short term as SpaceX is being added to Russell indexes and will join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, forcing passive funds that track those benchmarks to buy the stock.
Even after its sharp pullback, Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +0.15%) market cap still hovers around $2 trillion. That's an astronomical (no pun intended) valuation for a company that generated revenue of $18.7 billion last year and posted a loss of nearly $5 billion.
Could SpaceX double anytime soon? It's highly unlikely. Maybe over a long period of time, the company will open up exciting new markets that could lead to its share price gaining 100% or more. However, its premium pricing and the prospects of near-term insider selling after the lockup period expires present significant hurdles to the stock doubling over the next two or three years.
Investors who want explosive upside don't need to bet on science fiction valuations. Here are three stocks that have realistic paths to doubling relatively quickly.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. ADMA Biologics Unlike SpaceX, ADMA Biologics (ADMA +0.34%) is already profitable. And its earnings are growing. The company posted net income of $407 million in the first quarter, up 22% year over year.
ADMA markets three approved products, all plasma-derived immunoglobulin (IG) therapies. Asceniv is its flagship product, generating roughly 86% of total revenue. It was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 for treating primary humoral immunodeficiency, a group of genetic disorders in which the body's immune system can't make enough antibodies, called immunoglobulins, to defend against infections.
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The consensus analysts' 12-month price target for this biotech stock is almost exactly double the current share price. Raymond James (RJF 0.01%) recently initiated coverage of ADMA Biologics with a buy recommendation and a price target that implies potential upside of around 140%.
What's behind Wall Street's optimism about ADMA? For one thing, the company has captured only around 4% of its total addressable market so far. That market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 10% through 2033. ADMA has also developed technology that delivers IG production yields 20% or more higher with the same quantities of plasma, which should boost both revenue and earnings.
2. EyePoint Pharmaceuticals EyePoint Pharmaceuticals (EYPT 0.36%) and SpaceX share at least two things in common. Both stocks are up around the same percentage year to date. Both companies are losing money. But EyePoint has a better excuse for its lack of profitability: it doesn't yet have an approved product.
That could change soon. EyePoint expects to report top-line results from two late-stage clinical studies evaluating Duravyu for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) any day now (the company told investors the trials are "on track for data readouts beginning mid-year"). Enrollment in another Phase 3 study of the drug for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME) should wrap up in the third quarter of 2026.
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Wet AMD and DME represent a combined global market opportunity of over $15 billion. These markets are currently dominated by three drugs: Bayer's (BAYRY +1.06%) and Regeneron's (REGN +2.06%) Eylea, Roche's (RHHBY 0.23%) and Novartis' (NVS +0.13%) Lucentis, and Roche's Vabysmo. EyePoint's Duravyu uses a sustained-release formulation that can reduce injection frequency, making the therapy highly attractive to physicians and patients if approved.
Because of Duravyu's tremendous potential, Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish about EyePoint. All 12 analysts surveyed by S&P Global (SPGI +3.78%) in June rated the stock as a "buy" or "strong buy." The consensus 12-month price target is 165% higher than EyePoint's current share price.
To be sure, FDA approval of Duravyu isn't a slam dunk. Neither is commercial success. However, EyePoint's prospects of doubling over the next couple of years appear much higher than SpaceX's.
3. Viking Therapeutics When most people think about investing in GLP-1 stocks, Eli Lilly (LLY +7.51%) and Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.00%) probably come to mind first. But another stock appears to be on track to give Lilly and Novo a run for their money: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX +2.79%).
Viking Therapeutics is in the same boat as EyePoint Pharmaceuticals in some respects. The company remains unprofitable because it doesn't yet have an approved drug. However, like EyePoint, Viking could have good news on the way. It's evaluating the lead obesity candidate, subcutaneous VK2735, in two Phase 3 trials. The drugmaker plans to begin another late-stage study of oral VK2735 in the fourth quarter of 2026. Both formulations of VK2735 have shown significant promise in earlier clinical trials.
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In addition, Viking's pipeline includes three other experimental therapies in clinical development. VK2809 completed a Phase 2 study targeting metabolic steatohepatitis (MASH), a fatty liver disease. VK-0214 is in early stage testing as a potential treatment for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy, a rare genetic disease. Viking also recently initiated a Phase 1 study of VK3019 as a weight-loss treatment.
Investing in Viking Therapeutics comes with risks. However, the upside is enormous. As a case in point, the average price target for the stock is 146% higher than Viking's current share price.
June has been a history-maker for Wall Street. Not only did the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite catapult to new highs earlier this month, but investors also witnessed the largest-ever initial public offering (IPO) take shape, courtesy of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)(SPCX +0.15%).
Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy conglomerate debuted on June 12 and ultimately raised $85.7 billion (including the underwriters' overallotment) -- nearly triple the amount that overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco raised with its December 2019 IPO.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, the biggest fireworks for SpaceX are yet to come. Thanks to two converging events, July 7 is shaping up to be a monster day for this $2 trillion AI and space company.
Nasdaq-100 inclusion is right around the corner Before SpaceX went public, several committees amended the criteria for the inclusion of megacap stocks in major indexes.
For instance, the U.S. Russell Indexes drastically shortened the inclusion timeline for newly public large-cap stocks from once per quarter to just five trading sessions.
But the headline change came courtesy of the Nasdaq (NDAQ +1.24%) Global Indexes. Effective May 1, the low float requirement for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 has been waived.
To be clear, this means only the S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX shortly after its IPO.
FTSE Russell adds eligible megacap IPOs after the close of the 5th trading day.
Nasdaq adds them about 15 trading days after listing.
The S&P 500 kept its rules, so SpaceX waits the full...
-- Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) June 4, 2026 More importantly, any non-financial company that would rank among the 40 largest companies in the Nasdaq-100 can be fast-tracked into the index after 15 trading days. Accounting for the Juneteenth and Independence Day holidays, July 6 marks the 15th trading day for SpaceX stock.
As early as July 7, SpaceX will be eligible for addition to the growth-stock-dominated Nasdaq-100. Index funds and growth-focused exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100 will be required to purchase shares of SpaceX stock. The company's inclusion in the Russell 1000, Russell 3000, and Nasdaq-100 should lead to tens of billions of dollars in buying demand.
Image source: Getty Images.
The participating underwriters' quiet period ends However, Nasdaq-100 inclusion eligibility isn't the only catalyst that aligns on July 7. It's also the end of the participating underwriters' quiet period.
Most IPOs have a lead underwriter and a couple of participating underwriters (usually major banks/financial institutions). SpaceX had 21 underwriters, with Goldman Sachs as the lead.
For participating (i.e., non-lead) underwriters, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules mandate a 25-calendar-day quiet period following an IPO. During this period, participating underwriters are forbidden from issuing research reports or initiating recommendations/price targets for the company they helped take public.
The SEC requires this quiet period to ensure that underwriters don't unfairly promote a company in which they may have a vested interest.
July 6 will mark the 25th calendar day since SpaceX went public (including its debut day). This means a likely onslaught of buy recommendations and lofty price targets set to be issued on SpaceX starting on July 7.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 While this perfect storm of positive catalysts could provide a sizable boost to SpaceX's shares next week, keep in mind that Musk's company also has an accelerated/staggered share lockup period. Insiders will have an opportunity to begin dumping their shares on retail investors as soon as the second trading day following the company's first quarterly earnings release as a public company in August.
In other words, whatever pop SpaceX enjoys on and shortly after July 7 is likely to dissipate in the weeks that follow.
The shares should be getting a boost Monday as it's set to begin trading in a major stock index for the first time, after joining the Russell 1000 after the close Friday.
Shares of rocket and satellite company SpaceX (SPCX +0.13%) have tumbled almost as fast as they climbed. After its market debut this month sent shares as high as $225.64, the stock has since fallen about 32% to about $153 as of this writing.
A pullback like this in a stock investors couldn't get enough of just weeks ago raises an obvious question: Is now the time to buy? The company behind Starlink and a leading rocket-launch business is one of the most closely watched companies anywhere. But a lower price doesn't automatically make a stock a good deal -- and in SpaceX's case, the valuation still looks stretched.
Image source: Getty Images.
Understanding the drivers behind the SpaceX business SpaceX completed its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, pricing shares at $135 -- the biggest market debut in history. The prospectus it filed ahead of the offering gave investors their first detailed look at the financials behind the hype.
The top-line numbers are impressive. SpaceX grew revenue 33% year over year in 2025 to $18.7 billion. And most of that came from Starlink, its satellite internet business, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue (about 61% of the company total), up 48% from 2024. Starlink ended March 2026 with more than 10 million subscribers.
Even better, Starlink is profitable. The segment produced about $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, making it the company's profit center.
SpaceX's space segment, which includes its launch business and crew missions for NASA, added about $4 billion in revenue, though the company is spending about $3 billion to develop its next-generation Starship rocket.
This spending, combined with its aggressive outlays to support its nascent AI efforts, means SpaceX is unprofitable overall. The company reported a total net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 on a retrospectively recast basis that includes the results of xAI, its recently absorbed artificial intelligence (AI) business. That AI segment brought in about $3.2 billion in revenue but is losing money.
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What about the stock's valuation? Even after a 32% pullback, SpaceX stock continues to look overvalued. With a market capitalization above $2 trillion, a business that loses money on the bottom line, and a price-to-sales ratio of more than 100, the bull case rests on highly speculative assumptions about the company's long-term prospects.
A valuation multiple like this prices in years of flawless execution -- not just continued rapid growth at Starlink, but a path to substantial companywide profits even as SpaceX funds Starship and absorbs xAI's losses. It assumes nearly everything goes right. Little wonder some on Wall Street think the valuation got ahead of the business. Morningstar, for one, pegs SpaceX's fair value at about $780 billion -- about half its private-market valuation -- and calls the stock significantly overvalued.
To be clear, I love the business. And I believe it will do extraordinarily well over the long haul. SpaceX has a dominant launch franchise and, in Starlink, a fast-growing, high-margin asset few companies can match. The problem is what you pay for it. It's nearly impossible to justify a price anywhere close to where the stock trades today.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see shares keep trading on sentiment rather than fundamentals. SpaceX has a huge retail following and a founder, Elon Musk, who commands enormous attention -- and stocks like that can stay expensive far longer than the numbers alone would suggest. So while the shares could certainly move higher from here, the math doesn't work for me, and I can't base an investment case on unpredictable sentiment. I'll personally be watching from the sidelines.
There's no shortage of excitement about the revenue potential for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.15%), better known as SpaceX. Some analysts see it reaching trillions of dollars in annual sales across its launch services, connectivity business, and artificial intelligence segment.
That said, nobody expects it to be a straight line up and to the right. In fact, SpaceX could see a major revenue inflection this year thanks to a huge pivot in its AI segment.
The shift speaks volumes about the current state of the business and its potential going forward. And while the market is cheering some of the headline numbers, it may be underappreciating the implications for the company's finances and the stock's performance.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The biggest revenue growth driver at SpaceX Over the last few weeks, SpaceX has signed several deals to provide compute to other AI companies:
Anthropic will pay $1.25 billion per month to use the entirety of its Colossus 1 data center. Alphabet will pay $920 million per month to use about half as many processors as Anthropic. Reflection AI, a start-up focused on building an open-source frontier model, is paying $150 million per month for additional compute capacity from SpaceX. Those three contracts add up to nearly $28 billion in annual revenue, and SpaceX could look to make even more deals. "We have sufficient capacity to provide compute for our own AI models, including support of our training and inference demands, and to satisfy the obligations under these agreements," management wrote in its IPO registration filing with the SEC.
The shift is clear: The growth in SpaceX's AI revenue will stem from selling infrastructure rather than its own AI services. In effect, SpaceX is becoming another infrastructure-as-a-service business, or "neocloud," selling relatively undifferentiated compute capacity to leading AI labs that need as much as possible. Meanwhile, its own AI model is seeing so little use that it has hundreds of thousands of GPUs sitting idle in its data centers.
That shift will provide a significant boost to revenue right now, but investors need to consider how valuable that revenue and line of business are for SpaceX.
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Does SpaceX have a competitive advantage? The biggest concern for operating a neocloud company is establishing a competitive advantage. For the most part, the end product is undifferentiated. A token is a token. So, the only way to compete effectively is to keep your costs lower than everyone else.
To that end, SpaceX believes it has an advantage. "Our first-principles thinking enables us to build coherent compute at scale and at rapid speed with lower costs than most other companies in the industry," management wrote in its S-1 filing. However, SpaceX's strategy of retrofitting old factories near efficient water sources won't scale. There are only so many prime locations to construct data centers.
SpaceX may be able to find a sustainable cost advantage with orbital data centers. The cost will depend heavily on its ability to bring launch costs down by developing its fully reusable heavy-lift rocket, Starship. Management says it could launch its first orbital data centers by 2028.
What does it all mean for SpaceX stock? The move to monetize its limited compute capacity by renting it out instead of using it for its own AI development is telling. Management expects its large language model Grok to remain a niche player among large language models. That severely limits its profit potential. With the majority of SpaceX's revenue growth stemming from its pivot toward becoming a neocloud operator, investors may want to reassess the value of that revenue growth.
Leading neocloud providers CoreWeave and Oracle have massive backlogs of compute contracts.
CoreWeave has contracted revenue of nearly $100 billion as of the end of the first quarter, with $36 billion of that to be recognized over the next two years. The total backlog is larger than SpaceX's, but its annual run rate is smaller. For reference, CoreWeave's market cap sits around $55 billion.
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Oracle's remaining performance obligations total a whopping $638 billion as of the end of its most recent quarter. It's adding tens of billions of dollars in contracts every quarter. Approximately $75 billion of that backlog will be recognized over the next 12 months, and over $200 billion will hit Oracle's top line in the subsequent two years.
CoreWeave's and Oracle's strong revenue growth suggest SpaceX could achieve similar results over the coming years. However, that revenue isn't worth nearly as much as the revenue that comes from selling AI software services themselves.
That's evidenced by the price-to-sales multiples assigned to CoreWeave and Oracle: 4.2 and 5, respectively. By comparison, SpaceX trades at well over 100 times trailing 12-month sales. Even if it triples its sales over the next year thanks to infrastructure contracts, its sales multiple still sits well above reasonable levels.
In the early days of online shopping, Amazon (AMZN +2.44%) was a simple website that sold books. In the years that followed, the company expanded its marketplace into a more comprehensive e-commerce platform. That eventually helped pave the way for the launch of its cloud infrastructure platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS). This chain of events quietly turned Amazon into an essential digital infrastructure provider -- driving trillions of dollars in market value.
Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) is following a similar path. While SpaceX began with rockets that made it cheaper to get payloads into orbit, the company now also offers global internet connectivity through its Starlink business and is building large artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
SpaceX's long-term goal is to create a comprehensive suite of tools that power the entire AI economy. Recent steps, including its merger with xAI and its acquisition of Cursor AI, are speeding this process up.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Rockets, internet, and AI infrastructure all under one roof SpaceX oversees the complete sequence required to deliver all aspects of the AI infrastructure value chain. The company's rockets handle the launches that place equipment into orbit. Starlink's broadband satellites provide a global connectivity network that can link AI systems with end users. And on the ground, SpaceX is deploying large clusters of servers dedicated to training AI models.
This vertical integration extends to power and data flow, too. Terrestrial data centers draw electricity from the established grid and power plant infrastructure, and supplement that with on-site power generation where needed. The data center satellites it aims to deploy in orbit will operate using continuously available solar power.
Since SpaceX controls rockets, the connectivity layer, the power approach, and the accelerated computing hardware, it will be able to develop and deploy next-generation AI systems without depending on external suppliers for each step. This playbook mirrors the one used by Amazon, which built its own warehouses, logistics network, and cloud platform rather than relying on outside vendors for those key pieces of its operation.
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SpaceX is bolstering its AI business through key combinations Prior to its initial public offering, SpaceX acquired xAI to bring advanced model development inside the organization. In essence, that deal allows SpaceX's engineers to design AI systems while simultaneously building the physical infrastructure that will run them. The result is a closed-loop system between the software and the hardware that supports AI development.
The company's recent $60 billion acquisition of Cursor further supports this effort. Cursor provides tools that help developers create and refine the software needed for designing advanced computing systems.
The key takeaway here is that SpaceX is not stopping at reusable rockets or satellite broadband. CEO Musk is aggressively assembling a portfolio of end-to-end capabilities that AI hyperscalers will need in the future. Against this backdrop, SpaceX is positioning itself to be a core infrastructure provider in the same way that AWS became one of the key supporters of enterprises' digital transformations.
SpaceX's long-term ambitions go beyond Earth There are a host of constraints to building AI data centers on Earth. Such facilities consume massive amounts of electricity, straining local power grids and raising energy costs for everyone around them. They occupy large amounts of land, and also require extensive cooling systems that, in a majority of cases, suck up huge volumes of fresh water. All of those resources are becoming more expensive to secure, particularly given big tech's willingness to lay out hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures to build out AI infrastructure.
AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.
SpaceX is seeking to remove some of these bottlenecks by deploying a constellation of orbital AI servers. In certain orbits, intense solar power is available 24 hours a day to be converted into electricity. Moreover, these satellite-based computer servers can be cooled by using large radiator panels to emit the heat they generate as infrared radiation into the vacuum of space.
In theory, the payload capacity of SpaceX's Starship rocket will make it feasible to launch large-scale computing modules rather than individual parts -- allowing more efficient construction of these installations. The company can then use its Starlink infrastructure to maintain those data center satellites' connectivity to Earth. Such an orbital ecosystem would open a path for AI computing capacity to continue growing without facing the same resource constraints that hinder its ground-based expansion.
SpaceX combines a proven ability to maintain a rapid rocket launch cadence, a global satellite connectivity service, and a credible approach to building AI compute beyond Earth's limits. The company's ambitious long-term plan for infrastructure leadership echoes the narrative of Amazon's foray into cloud services, with clear implications for sustained growth and strategic importance in the AI economy if Musk and his companies can execute on his vision.
In 1873, Jules Verne's novel Around the World in 80 Days became his first international success. The seemingly impossible prospect of circumnavigating the entire world in so short a timespan captured the global imagination.
That's because only a few years prior, it was impossible. It was only doable thanks to three engineering feats: the completion of the Suez Canal and the U.S. transcontinental railroad in 1869, and the linking of the Indian railways in 1870.
Now Elon Musk is proposing a new engineering feat that we might call Around the World in 80 Minutes. Is it a game changer for his Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), or SpaceX?
Here's the sounds-like-something-out-of-a-sci-fi-novel idea behind the "Starfall" project, and whether it bolsters the bull case for SpaceX.
Image source: Getty Images.
Faster than a speeding bullet Everything's faster in space.
That's the big idea behind Starfall. Traditional airplanes can travel at a poky 575 mph, and the now-retired Concorde supersonic jet had a cruising speed of 1,350 mph. The Earth's atmosphere and those pesky laws of physics prevent pretty much anything besides a missile from going much faster than that.
But in near-Earth orbit, satellites like the International Space Station travel at about 17,500 mph (5 miles per second). At that velocity, they make a complete orbit of the Earth in about 90 minutes. So if you wanted to deliver something to the opposite side of the globe as quickly as possible, you could launch it into space and then drop it out of orbit just 45 minutes later. That would deliver the payload well before any traditional delivery method (even the Concorde would take more than 9 hours).
But... can SpaceX actually pull this off? A new test suggests it can.
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Stronger than a locomotive Starfall was developed under a veil of secrecy, but we have a publicly available FAA environmental assessment that tells us a little bit about the program. It says that Starfall will "enable point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines." The FAA approved the program for testing, and the first test occurred on Tuesday.
One of SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rockets carried a Starfall reentry pod into near-Earth orbit. The rocket then separated, at which point the upper stage was scheduled to carry the pod in orbit around the Earth twice, then guide it back into the atmosphere, where it would achieve a parachute-assisted splashdown in the Pacific Ocean. I say "was scheduled to" because while SpaceX has confirmed the successful launch, separation, and return of the Stage 1 Falcon Heavy rocket, it hasn't provided details about the upper-stage rocket's flight or its payload.
All we know is that the Starfall pod weighs about 4,600 pounds, with a 2,200-pound payload capacity, and looks like a cylindrical disc about 10 feet in diameter and 2.5 feet tall.
Able to leap tall valuations in a single bound We don't know whether the recent Starfall test was successful, so it's impossible to know for certain how close this technology is to becoming a reality. But one thing's for sure: It won't be used for getting that inexpensive Temu dress to your doorstep in time for your hot date tonight. At least, not at first.
For one thing, Starfall capsules can't apparently take themselves out of orbit, but are reliant on their launch vehicle to place them on a trajectory for reentry. Until SpaceX's fully reusable Starship vehicle comes online, that means burning an expensive upper-stage rocket with every Starfall capsule delivery.
Image source: Getty Images.
But if SpaceX's reusable Starship comes online in its current form, it will only have a few possible landing sites due to its size. Starfall capsules could offer the flexibility to deliver payloads to far-flung locations where Starships can't land. The U.S. military could certainly use technology that could deploy a one-ton payload anywhere in the world in 80 minutes from a reusable launch vehicle, even if the initial cost is high.
Launch costs in general are expected to continue dropping sharply as SpaceX improves its technology and introduces the fully reusable Starship. So it's possible that Starfall could someday power consumer deliveries. But that won't happen in the next 80 days ... or even the next 80 weeks.
Ultimately, while Starfall could someday generate a valuable revenue stream for SpaceX, investors shouldn't try to factor it into their analysis just yet. Instead, we should at least wait for confirmed details before updating our SpaceX valuation.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +0.13%) raised $75 billion in its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. When you add in the overallotment given to the investment banks that helped with the IPO, that figure rises to $85.7 billion. Just days after the IPO, the company announced it would sell $20 billion in bonds, even though it already had $100 billion in cash on its balance sheet. It actually raised $25 billion from the bond sale, thanks to strong demand. Here's why all that cash won't last very long.
SpaceX is big, but it's still a start-up The hype around SpaceX is huge, partly because of Elon Musk's involvement and partly because the company has achieved impressive milestones. In fact, the company's Starlink cellular telecommunications business is profitable. The problem is that its rocket business and its artificial intelligence operations (AI) are not. So the company, overall, doesn't turn a profit, a fact clearly disclosed in the IPO prospectus.
Image source: Getty Images.
Also clearly disclosed was the need for huge ongoing capital investments. That's not something to overlook just because the company has $100 billion in cash and just sold $25 billion in bonds. For starters, the bond sale proceeds were earmarked to repay bridge loans. While there may be some cash left over, it likely won't be much.
The $100 billion in cash on the balance sheet, meanwhile, must be compared with the company's investment needs. It is very clear in its prospectus that capital spending will be a massive cash drain. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX made capital investments totaling $10.1 billion, up from $4.1 billion in the prior year.
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If you annualize that, and generously assume that capital spending needs don't increase further, the company is on pace to spend around $40 billion a year. So $100 billion is enough to cover two and a half years' worth of capital spending needs if capital spending doesn't increase further. Given the huge amount of money being spent in the AI arms race, it seems likely that capital investment spending could rise from here.
SpaceX is likely to be tapping the capital markets again Elon Musk has huge goals for SpaceX. While the cash raised so far seems like a massive sum, it likely won't last long. Look for the company to come back to the capital markets for more cash, a move that could dilute current shareholders. And that doesn't even take into account the overhang from the stock that is likely to hit the market when the lockup period from the IPO ends and insiders start selling shares. All in, there could be more downward pressure on the stock than many investors realize, increasing the importance of taking a long-term view if you own SpaceX or are considering buying it.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.15%), or SpaceX, became the largest company ever to undertake an initial public offering (IPO) earlier this month, and the stock had a strong start out of the gate. It rose three straight days after debuting, hitting a high of $225.64. However, the stock has since pulled back to levels at which it traded on its first day, and I would be wary of buying it here.
Historically, it is very common for stocks to eventually trade below their opening-day low. According to The Lifecycle Trade, this happens about 90% of the time. In fact, SpaceX traded below its day-one low price for the first time on June 23, only six trading days after its debut.
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This is notable since the stock currently has a very low initial float of just 4%, and there should have been some initial institutional buying to support it. Now it faces a series of share lock-up expirations that will increase its float over the next year, which could pressure its shares. The company has an astonishing 15 lockup expirations over the next year-plus.
The first lock-up expirations are scheduled for the next two months. The first could come two days after its first earnings release, which Morningstar currently estimates will take place in late July or early August. Insiders will then be able to sell 911.5 million shares, or nearly 7% of its original shares outstanding, if they wish. Another 319 million shares, or about 2.4% of its original shares outstanding, will be released on Aug. 20.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The long view Setting aside near-term trading dynamics, what about SpaceX's long-term prospects? The company has painted a very bright picture of its future, where not only will it have leading connectivity (satellite internet and mobile) and rocket-launching businesses, but it will also be operating AI data centers in space. It also plans to build a large chip manufacturing facility with Tesla and Intel.
With the company producing just under $19 billion in revenue last year and carrying a $2 trillion market capitalization, investors are betting very heavily that some of SpaceX's moonshot bets pay off. Its reusable rocket business gives it a cost advantage, and its Starlink satellite internet business is nice, but this is a capital expenditure-heavy business that will be solid but not worth getting overly excited about. Meanwhile, Nvidia's CEO was very skeptical of SpaceX's Terafab initiative.
Between its near-term trading dynamics, high valuation, and heavy emphasis on things that may or may not happen in the future, this is an AI stock I'd avoid.
Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) insiders have sold approximately $1.2 million worth of the stock over the past year, according to insider trading data.
Data covering the period between June 28, 2025, and June 27, 2026, shows a single insider sale by SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.
The transaction involved the sale of 11,390 shares on April 2, 2026, at an average price of $105.32 per share, for a total value of $1,199,594.80.
SpaceX insider trades. Source: Market Beat The sale is notable because it occurred before SpaceX’s blockbuster June 2026 initial public offering, which priced shares at $135 each before the stock surged during its debut trading sessions.
Minimal SpaceX insider trades Available records indicate that Musk was the only SpaceX insider to sell stock during the last 12 months. No insider purchases or additional sales were disclosed during the period.
Notably, the sale price of $105.32 per share was below both the IPO price and current market levels, suggesting the transaction was completed before investors fully priced in SpaceX’s public-market valuation.
SpaceX insider selling often attracts investor attention because company executives have direct insight into business performance. However, a single insider transaction does not necessarily signal weakening confidence in the company.
In SpaceX’s case, the reported sale appears relatively small compared to the company’s roughly $2 trillion market capitalization and does not indicate broader insider liquidation. The absence of multiple insider sales reduces concerns that executives are rushing to exit positions following the company’s public debut.
As a result, the disclosed transaction is unlikely to have a material impact on SPCX stock on its own. Investors typically become more cautious when several executives sell large portions of their holdings over a short period, a trend that has not emerged in recent SPCX insider trading activity.
SpaceX stock volatility As of press time, SPCX was trading at approximately $153 per share, remaining above its IPO price despite retreating from post-listing highs above $225.
SpaceX’s one-week stock price chart. Source: Finbold The stock initially surged on strong retail and institutional demand, pushing SpaceX’s valuation above $2 trillion.
Since then, shares have experienced increased volatility as investors reassessed the company’s premium valuation, ongoing losses, and significant capital expenditure requirements.
While the insider sale may draw attention, the near-term direction of SPCX stock is likely to be driven by Starlink subscriber growth, launch activity, profitability trends, AI-related investments, and broader market sentiment toward high-growth technology companies rather than a single $1.2 million insider transaction.
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On Tuesday, June 23, a SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying a vehicle most people had never heard of. The payload was called Starfall -- a disc-shaped reentry pod, 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall, designed to carry up to 1 metric ton of cargo from low-Earth orbit back to Earth's surface.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) described it publicly as a "microgravity lab" for scientific research and in-space manufacturing. What the Federal Aviation Administration's environmental assessment called it was more specific: a vehicle to "enable point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines."
Image source: Getty Images.
Those two descriptions are both accurate, and the gap between them is where the investor story lives.
The vehicle is not capable of de-orbiting itself. It relies on its launch vehicle -- a Falcon 9 today, potentially Starship later -- to guide it back toward the atmosphere, after which it orients its heat shield using compressed nitrogen gas and descends by parachute to a splashdown zone. It's smaller than SpaceX's Crew Dragon, built exclusively for cargo, and recoverable -- SpaceX intends to retrieve the vehicle and its parachutes for reuse.
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Two markets to pay attention to Two markets emerge immediately from that design profile. The first is military logistics. The Pentagon has been working toward a space-based point-to-point cargo delivery capability for years. In 2022, the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded SpaceX a $102 million contract to demonstrate the concept using Starship -- the ability to deliver roughly a C-17 Globemaster's worth of supplies anywhere on the planet in under 90 minutes. Starfall, smaller and deployable on the existing Falcon 9, is a complementary tool for lighter, more targeted deliveries that don't require Starship's enormous footprint or a prepared landing site. The Pentagon has signed similar early-stage agreements with Rocket Lab (RKLB +4.67%), Blue Origin, and Anduril for reentry vehicle development. SpaceX is the only company flying a working vehicle today.
The second market is commercial in-space manufacturing, and it's further along than most people realize. Varda Space Industries signed a partnership with United Therapeutics in May 2026 to manufacture drugs in microgravity -- specifically targeting small-molecule crystallization processes that Earth's gravity renders structurally imperfect. Varda CEO Will Bruey put the economics plainly at the 2026 Upfront Summit: A launch capable of processing space-manufactured drugs and returning them to Earth now costs roughly $2.2 million -- a number that makes pharmaceutical microgravity viable at commercial scale for the first time. Starfall, with its 1-metric-ton payload capacity and reusable design, is positioned as the return infrastructure that makes that supply chain possible at volume.
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This is where SpaceX's structural advantage over every competitor in this space becomes relevant to investors. Rocket Lab is targeting a 2026 demonstration of reentry capability on its Neutron rocket -- which has not yet flown. Blue Origin is earlier in the development process. Inversion Space received a $71 million contract for its Arc reentry vehicle, which remains in development. SpaceX flew Starfall on Tuesday. That lead time matters in a market where government procurement decisions follow demonstrated capability, not road maps.
The military's REGAL program -- Rocket Experimentation for Global Agile Logistics -- has explicitly framed point-to-point space cargo as a pathway to becoming a program of record, meaning recurring annual defense budget line items rather than one-time research and development (R&D) grants. SpaceX's $102 million AFRL contract was the first significant step in that direction. Starfall's successful demonstration puts the company in a position to substantially expand that relationship.
What this means for SPCX shareholders -- or those interested in investing Here is where the honest qualification belongs. Starfall's commercial potential is real, but the timelines are long, and the revenue is not yet material on SpaceX's financials. The company's near-term revenue story is Starlink, which generated $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 and remains the only profitable segment. Even in an optimistic scenario where it wins military contracts and becomes the backbone of orbital pharmaceutical manufacturing, Starfall adds revenue on a multiyear timeline.
For investors looking at SpaceX in a week when the stock has already fallen nearly 30% from its peak due to valuation and float concerns, Starfall is the kind of development that validates the long-term thesis without changing the short-term math.
It is also worth saying plainly: None of this is new. SpaceX has been demonstrating breakthrough capability for years, and investors who needed Tuesday's test to feel confident in the underlying technology were perhaps not paying close enough attention. SpaceX is building real technology that solves real problems.
The question that was true before Tuesday and remains true after it is whether the current price -- which sits 53% above Morningstar's base-case intrinsic value -- gives investors enough room for execution risk on programs that haven't yet generated meaningful revenue.
The technology is not what's in question. The valuation still is.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.15%), or SpaceX, has become a tempting addition to one's portfolio. Under the leadership of Elon Musk, Starlink has become a tremendous success, dominating private launches into space and becoming a key contractor for NASA.
Despite such attributes, consumer stock investors have numerous successful stocks in this sector to choose from. Knowing this, should they add to their SpaceX positions or stick with consumer discretionary stocks?
Image source: Getty Images.
Consumer stock growth Even before SpaceX launched its IPO, investors had many solid consumer stocks to choose from, and many of these are among the most successful stocks in history.
As with SpaceX, the success stories in the consumer sector were those that fundamentally changed an industry. Perhaps the most prominent standout is Amazon, which has risen by almost 242,000% since its IPO in 1997. Amazon succeeded by pioneering e-commerce and, later, cloud computing.
This is also true of Netflix, which is up by around 61,000% since its 2004 IPO. The company single-handedly ended the video rental industry and inspired cord-cutting as consumers traded cable TV subscriptions for streaming services.
In some cases, the growth occurred without direct involvement of the technology industry. TJX Companies is up 45,000% since 1990. Also, multinational retail giants like Walmart and Home Depot drove massive growth by launching IPOs early in their histories.
Admittedly, many of those stocks are outliers in terms of performance. Nonetheless, new companies (besides SpaceX) continue to emerge and grow to the point that they launch IPOs of their own. Knowing that, the consumer success stories should continue.
Putting SpaceX into perspective Despite tumbling over the last week, SpaceX stock continues to trade above its $135-per-share IPO price. SpaceX has also benefited from revenue projections, such as one Goldman Sachs forecast of a 100-fold revenue gain by 2030.
However, Goldman's projection is not a guarantee, and the premium investors have to pay for such growth is likely to deter some investors, especially with its 110 price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. In comparison, the average sales multiple for the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.05%) is around 3.6, and even a highflier like Micron currently sells at just 20 times sales.
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Moreover, many of the aforementioned stocks launched their IPOs early in their histories, most often when their market caps were below $1 billion. That early start is what made their massive growth over time possible.
Unfortunately, this is not the case with SpaceX. SpaceX's market cap is already above $2.1 trillion, making it less likely that SpaceX will make you a millionaire.
Currently, after Amazon's aforementioned 242,000% gain, its market cap is around $2.5 trillion, just 18% higher than SpaceX's.
Furthermore, even after 61,000% gains, Netflix's market cap is $308 billion, roughly one-seventh of SpaceX's. TJX is about one-twelfth the size of SpaceX. Amid such gains, investors may question whether buying SpaceX is a prudent choice when compared with consumer stocks.
Should you invest in SpaceX or other consumer stocks? Given the performances of many consumer stocks, investors are likely best off choosing consumer stocks over SpaceX.
SpaceX has shown many of the characteristics that made some of the more prominent consumer stocks successful. Under Musk's leadership, it appears poised for rapid growth.
Unfortunately, its first $2 trillion in growth occurred before the stock went public, robbing investors of the chance to buy SpaceX early and earn outsize gains comparable to those of early Amazon, Netflix, or TJX investors.
Although investors have to rely on future growth to earn returns, the 110 P/S ratio has priced much of that growth into the stock. That probably means SpaceX investors will lose out as multiples compress. Worse, even if the sales multiples fall to where Micron trades in the low 20s, current investors could be left holding the bag as the stock takes a hit.
Thus, even if investors choose slower-growing consumer stocks over SpaceX, the consumer stocks are almost certainly safer and could ultimately yield higher returns over time.
For the first time, anyone who owns an index fund is about to own a piece of SpaceX (SPCX +0.15%). The rocket and satellite company went public on June 12 in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, and barely two weeks later it is being pulled into the funds that sit inside millions of 401(k)s and brokerage accounts.
On Friday, SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 under a new rule that fast-tracks the biggest new listings into the index. And before the market opens on July 7, it will join the Nasdaq-100 through a similar process. Likely millions of people who have never placed a direct order for the stock are about to pick up a sliver (albeit indirectly) through funds they already hold.
Fortunately, the buying comes as the shares have cooled. SpaceX trades at about $153 as of this writing, down about a third from the post-IPO high of about $226 it reached on June 16.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why the funds have to buy When a company enters an index, every fund built to track that index has to buy the stock -- regardless of the price, the valuation, or whether the business turns a profit. The buying is automatic, and for a company SpaceX's size, it is large.
Estimates vary, but the sums are big. The Russell 1000 move alone could force over $4 billion of buying, by some estimates, and the Nasdaq-100 addition is expected to drive about $4 billion more as well. Add in the other funds that track related benchmarks, and the total climbs higher still.
These additions are happening fast because the index providers changed their rules. FTSE Russell, which runs the Russell indexes, now lets the largest new stocks in after just five trading days rather than waiting for its next scheduled reconstitution. Nasdaq adopted its own fast-entry route this year, clearing the way for some big new listings after 15 trading days.
None of that buying reflects a view on whether SpaceX is a good investment. Index funds don't analyze stocks the way an investor would, weighing growth, profits, and valuation. They buy because the rules tell them to.
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What the buying doesn't tell you You can see that distinction in the one major index sitting this out: the S&P 500, the benchmark most retirement dollars actually follow.
S&P Global's S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to loosen its standards for SpaceX and kept its profitability screen in place. To qualify, a company needs four straight quarters of positive earnings under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) -- and SpaceX doesn't meet the test. It lost about $4.9 billion in 2025 and posted another loss in the first quarter of 2026.
So the index designed to screen for steady profits is keeping SpaceX out, while the rules that ignore profits are forcing funds to buy.
Underneath, the company leans primarily on one segment in terms of its profit drivers today: Starlink, its satellite-internet service, generated about $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 -- around 61% of the company total -- and grew close to 50% from a year earlier. The launch business, by comparison, is smaller and grew about 8%. All told, SpaceX brought in about $18.7 billion in 2025.
SpaceX makes money providing Starlink service but lost money overall, weighed down by spending on its Starship rocket and the absorption of Elon Musk's AI start-up, xAI, which it folded in earlier this year.
The valuation leaves little doubt about how much optimism is already built in. At a market capitalization of about $2 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its annual revenue. And with no profit, there is no price-to-earnings ratio to anchor it.
The forced index buying doesn't change any of that.
So, for many investors who own the Russell 1000 or the Nasdaq-100, get used to being a SpaceX shareholder -- whether you wanted it or not. But note that being added to an index is not the same as being worth owning. Whether SpaceX deserves more than the sliver the index hands you comes down to Starlink's growth and the company's path to profits -- not which index it just joined.
Not everyone is buying Elon Musk’s vision for orbital data centers.
Masayoshi Son, the founder and CEO of Softbank, argued at a recent shareholder meeting that building data centers in space won’t do much to cut costs and will take too long when “in the battle for AI, the next few years will be far more important than what might happen a decade or so from now.”
On the latest episode of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast, Kirsten Korosec, Sean O’Kane, and I discussed Son’s remarks as part of a broader discussion that included OpenAI’s plans for custom chips, chipmaker Groq’s new $650 million funding, and much more.
Kirsten noted that it’s “very ironic” that Son is playing the skeptic here, given SoftBank’s “long history of wild bets.”
Sean, meanwhile, said that when Musk talks about “making a constellation of satellites — satellites that need to be replaced every few years as well — to make up an ‘orbital data center,’” he’s just “guaranteeing that much more business” for SpaceX.
Keep reading for a preview of our conversation, edited for length and clarity.
Sean O’Kane: Listen, neo-clouds are the new oil, and everybody who wants to make money is pivoting to a neo-cloud. I’m proud to announce that TechCrunch is now a neo-cloud, give us all your money.
I mean, this is the thing you do. It seems like there are so many players that are compute constrained, so anybody who has a shot at being able to lease out that compute is taking it, whether that’s Groq, a company that was semi-hollowed out by Nvidia, or Allbirds, which went into bankruptcy and and emerged from it as a new neo-cloud provider instead of selling shoes — Tim Fernholz did an interview with the new CEO of of that new effort that I would definitely recommend people go read.
Or whether you’re SpaceX, where your idea was: I’m gonna build an AI platform that’s gonna have an addressable market the size of U.S. GDP, but before we get there, we’ll just rent out our compute. And we saw this continue to happen with SpaceX, where it’s not as big as the deals that they’ve struck with Google or Anthropic, but they just signed another deal, [their] first post IPO deal, to rent out compute to another smaller player. They’re continuing down that road.
You know, I can see this being a business for Groq in the near term. The question with all of these is how durable is it in the long term.
Anthony Ha: If we’re talking about SpaceX and their AI business and data center business, we also have to talk about these comments that Masayoshi Son, the CEO of SoftBank, made recently, where he basically said: What is the point of data centers in space? Which is a question we’ve asked on this show.
And it speaks to, again, this sense in the industry of being really, really compute constrained — they need to build as many data centers as possible, [and] there’s all kinds of reasons why that is proving to be challenging here on Earth, so maybe space is the answer. But I think Son makes some pretty fair points about: All this stuff we’re talking about, even if it all works — and the costs are going to be very, very serious to make it work — this is not happening for years and years and years, so this is not a solution to any immediate problem, as far the current need for data centers goes.
Kirsten Korosec: I just want to point out that SoftBank has a long history of making wild bets. I think it says something when Son comes up and asks the question that a lot of people have asked.
I mean, there are a lot of VCs and founders [who] have been swept up into the idea of orbital data centers and it seems like suddenly everyone’s on board. When just a couple of years ago, I think, if someone had mentioned that, it would get slapped down a little bit. So I do think it’s an important part of the process that someone who has a pretty high profile is asking that question. But it is very ironic to me that he is the one asking it, because if you look at his pitch deck, they’ve thrown a lot of money at some pretty bold ideas.
Sean: WeWork! Listen, we’re going to be saying this for a lot over the next couple years. The idea of putting these things in space is going to be an interesting engineering challenge and certainly an interesting economic challenge.
Anthony, what you said is definitely right to a certain extent. Elon Musk is a person who hates red tape and you know, there are no NIMBYs in space so of course he’s going to try and do that.
To me, it comes down to: The business as it stands now for SpaceX, especially its launch business, is just overwhelmingly reliant on Starlink. The reason that they are 80 or 90% of the launch market globally is not just because they’ve done all these things that are better than pretty much every other launch provider around the globe, it’s also because they have Starlink that is driving up that number. If you remove Starlink from the equation, they would be closer to — I don’t know, maybe 20% or 30% of the launch market, or 40%, but it certainly wouldn’t be 90%.
And when you talk about making a constellation of satellites — satellites that need to be replaced every few years as well — to make up an “orbital data center,” quote unquote, you’re just guaranteeing that much more business for your launch business. And I just can’t stop myself from coming back to that point.
Kirsten: I want to really quickly say that [SpaceX’s] other big business is renting out their compute, by the way. So back to the chip conversation. We’ve come full circle.
Anthony: One of the other themes that may run through this episode is this idea of talking your own book. This is not a new phenomenon. Executives at tech companies, or any other company, what they’re predicting for the future is ultimately the future that is going to be advantageous to their business.
But I think it’s something that’s just always worth remembering when we’re having these conversations about big AI companies, because it is this moment of incredible uncertainty, and we’re all wondering: What does the job market look like in the future? What effect is this going to have on the environment? What are the skills I need to learn?
All these AI CEOs or AI investors, they all have thoughts on that. And it’s not that they’re wrong or that they are being deliberately misleading, but in each case, there’s an asterisk to these predictions. In Musk’s case, he’s talking about something that would be very good for SpaceX’s business. In SoftBank’s case, they are very, very heavily invested in data center projects here on Earth. Sam Altman is the other notable figure who’s rolled his eyes a bit at the orbital data center idea — and again, he and Elon Musk obviously have a long and complicated history together.
All of which is to say that there’s just no objective, impartial observers here. It’s all these people with baggage and tremendous amounts of money at stake.
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Space Exploration Technologies's (SPCX +0.15%) Starlink internet service is perhaps its most successful venture to date. This business unit accounted for the majority of SpaceX's revenues and profits last year.
The FCC has already approved the company to launch 12,000 low Earth orbit satellites. SpaceX has filed to launch 42,000 more. Future approvals will be needed, considering that more than 9,000 Starlink satellites are already in orbit.
Just how fast will SpaceX launch additional satellites? One major upcoming catalyst will determine the pace of launches.
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This is how many satellites SpaceX will launch in 2026 SpaceX continues to launch more Starlink satellites regularly. On June 20, the company launched 24 more satellites on a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Four days later, it launched another 24 satellites.
Halfway through 2026, SpaceX has already launched more than 1,500 satellites. In total, SpaceX has launched more satellites into space than any other company in history.
Image source: Getty Images.
At this pace, SpaceX should deploy roughly 3,000 satellites into space this year, perhaps more if the company's IPO funding helps accelerate launch cadence.
The biggest catalyst for growth, however, will be the company's Starship megarocket. A single Starship can launch the equivalent of roughly 600 v2 Starlink satellites -- more than 20 times what Falcon 9 rockets can manage.
SpaceX's Starship megarocket has completed several key testing phases. But some experts don't expect it to be commercialized until 2027. When Starship launches, it will scale; however, SpaceX will deploy a huge number of additional satellites -- many times more than in its previous launches.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
