Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, reportedly refuses to take the AI company public at any valuation below $1 trillion. There are already ways to invest indirectly in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. But an IPO would finally give investors a chance to participate directly.
Why is Altman so adamant about bringing the company public with at least a $1 trillion valuation? He likely saw the success of Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.83%) IPO, which saw such heavy public demand that the company's market cap quickly soared to over $2 trillion.
While many people still think of SpaceX as a rocket stock, more than 90% of the company's claimed total addressable market deals with a single opportunity: AI. So comparing OpenAI to SpaceX is more appropriate than many realize.
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Will OpenAI be a better investment than SpaceX? According to reports, OpenAI generated roughly $13 billion in revenue in 2025. So far in 2026, it is generating around $2 billion per month in sales, a trend that would suggest full-year 2026 revenue of around $24 billion. If growth trends persist, however, that figure could be much higher, implying at least 100% annual sales growth.
The issue isn't sales growth, but profitability. The company apparently accrued a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025, while generating a $8.5 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026. A public IPO would help OpenAI raise cash quickly, with an arguably easier path toward raising future capital.
Keep in mind that SpaceX's AI division is also growing revenues fast, generating large net losses to boot. This is just the reality of operating an AI business today -- the capital intensity of building and operating more data center infrastructure is extremely costly, adding a big drag to accounting profits despite high sales growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investors should keep in mind that an OpenAI IPO may not arrive for some time. "Am I excited to be a public company CEO? 0%. Am I excited for OpenAI to be a public company? In some ways, I am, and in some ways I think it'd be really annoying," Altman revealed last December. And while OpenAI did officially file for an IPO in early June, the company doesn't seem to be in a hurry to execute a public sale. "We have not decided on timing yet," Altman stressed.
Will OpenAI end up being a better bargain than SpaceX? We'll have minimal concrete details for making that distinction until a public prospectus is filed. That may not even happen this year. The New York Times recently reported that an OpenAI IPO may not occur until 2027.
I'm excited to see more AI giants go public, providing a better relative gauge for how highly SpaceX's AI division is being valued. But I won't be holding my breath for an OpenAI IPO this year.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock could finish July 2026 at approximately $175 per share, according to a forecast generated by ChatGPT.
The prediction suggests SpaceX shares will trade within a base-case range of $165 to $185 by July 31, while a more bullish scenario places the stock between $190 and $220.
A bearish outcome could see shares fall to between $140 and $155 if valuation concerns intensify or broader market sentiment weakens.
The forecast comes as investors continue to assess the long-term growth prospects of the aerospace and satellite communications company following its blockbuster June 2026 initial public offering.
ChatGPT’s base-case target of $175 implies an upside of about 8% from SpaceX’s press-time price of $162.
SPCX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold The forecast also factors in SpaceX’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, a development expected to increase demand from index-tracking funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The company’s addition to the benchmark could generate billions of dollars in passive inflows, providing a potential near-term catalyst for the stock during July.
SpaceX diversified offering According to ChatGPT, SpaceX should increasingly be viewed as a combination of a space technology, communications, and artificial intelligence company.
Much of the bullish case is tied to the future growth of Starlink, the company’s satellite internet business, as well as opportunities stemming from its artificial intelligence initiatives following the acquisition of xAI.
Starship development also remains a key driver of long-term expectations. Investors believe the next-generation launch system could significantly reduce launch costs and expand the commercial space market over the coming years.
These growth opportunities have helped support a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, making SpaceX one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world.
Another notable development is the sharp increase in short interest. In this line, approximately 31% of SpaceX’s publicly tradable shares have reportedly been sold short, highlighting skepticism among some investors about the company’s ability to justify its valuation.
The elevated level of bearish positioning has also increased the potential for volatility in either direction during the remainder of the month.
SpaceX’s record-setting IPO raised approximately $75 billion and attracted strong demand from institutional investors.
Overall, the stock has remained one of Wall Street’s most closely watched names since its market debut, with major funds continuing to build positions as the company becomes more widely represented across key investment benchmarks.
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As the late, great Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." His quip is especially applicable to a company like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), better known as SpaceX.
The stock took off like one of its rockets following its initial public offering (IPO) last month. This surge was particularly impressive, given that SpaceX's IPO was the largest in history. However, the space technology company's share price has since pulled back. Investors who bought after the IPO are now sitting on a hefty loss.
How much could $1,000 invested in SpaceX stock today be worth by 2030? Predictions about the future are tough, just as Yogi Berra said. But I'll make one about SpaceX anyway.
Image source: Getty Images.
Two very different scenarios If you're optimistic about SpaceX (and many investors are), you'll focus on the company's tremendous growth prospects. SpaceX dominates the rapidly growing commercial space launch industry. Some believe that the company's Starlink satellite internet service could disrupt the businesses of telecom giants AT&T (T +0.49%) and Verizon (VZ +1.37%). SpaceX thinks its biggest opportunity lies in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including AI data centers orbiting Earth.
Arete Research's Andrew Beale projects the stock could hit $401 over the next 12 months. This price target implies an upside of roughly 148%, enough to grow an initial $1,000 investment to around $2,480. If SpaceX delivers such an impressive return over the near term, it could be worth much more by 2030.
On the other hand, it's easy to find SpaceX bears. Morningstar (MORN +2.45%) crunched the numbers and arrived at a fair value of $63 per share. Assuming the initial euphoria wanes, and SpaceX eventually trades somewhere close to this number, an investment of $1,000 now could dwindle to below $390.
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A middle-of-the-road prediction I think the best prediction for SpaceX isn't as optimistic as the most fervent bulls, but it isn't as pessimistic as Morningstar's analysis either. My view is that the company's revenue will grow robustly, fueled by Starlink, AI infrastructure, and the launch business (with Starship's contribution increasing over the next few years). But I also fully expect insiders' selling in the coming months will take a toll.
With these factors in mind, I predict that SpaceX's shares will trade around $160 by the end of 2030. Yep, that's roughly where the stock is today. It's also in line with where I expect the stock will be at the end of 2026. If I'm right, an investment of $1,000 would be worth in the ballpark of $987 by the end of the decade.
A stock that essentially treads water for four years isn't one that most investors will want to buy. SpaceX could be a huge winner over the next few decades. My view, though, is that many other stocks offer a more attractive risk-reward proposition right now.
Plus: The end of Anthropic's Fable ban, high-earner families explore alternative schools, how data-center water use is actually higher than reported and more
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) went public on June 12 and set a record for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history. CEO Elon Musk's company raised $85.7 billion in a first tranche of public stock sales that valued the company at $1.77 trillion, and its valuation rocketed higher from there. While the stock has seen significant volatility since its public debut, its market capitalization is still above $2.1 trillion as of this writing.
With the company having recorded roughly $18.7 billion in sales last year, SpaceX is currently trading at about 114 times last year's revenue. That's a hugely growth-dependent valuation that is made even more stark considering that the business actually recorded a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year. On the other hand, Musk has issued commentary suggesting that the business is on track to grow at an incredible pace that could wind up shattering concerns about the company's valuation profile.
Shortly before the company's IPO, Musk said that he believed SpaceX had the potential to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Could that really happen, and what might the business's sales makeup and structure look like by that point?
Image source: Getty Images.
Hitting $1 trillion in sales by 2030 would be an incredible feat In order to reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030 SpaceX would need to grow its sales 5,248% over its 2025 sales base of $18.7 billion. In other words, the company would have to increase revenue at an average annual rate of 121.6% for five years straight to hit that lofty target in 2030.
Unsurprisingly, many Wall Street analysts have adopted more conservative targets when it comes to modeling SpaceX's 2030 sales performance. Goldman Sachs has weighed in with one of the higher-end sales targets for the business, but it still projects revenue of only $470 billion for the year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is forecasting roughly $330 billion in sales for the period, and New Street Research is targeting sales of roughly $195 billion in the year.
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In response, Musk said that he would be disappointed if SpaceX did not manage to significantly exceed the current batch of Wall Street sales targets for the business. For what it's worth, Musk also subsequently offered additional commentary on SpaceX's sales outlook, stating that he would be surprised if the business's revenue came in below $1 trillion in 2031. That may or may not be an indication that he is backing off the potential for the business to hit $1 trillion in sales by 2030.
While I think it's very unlikely that SpaceX as it currently exists will be able to approach $1 trillion in sales by 2030, it does seem highly likely that the company's artificial intelligence, Starlink, and rocket launching services businesses will grow at very robust rates. I also think there's a very good chance that Musk will move to merge his SpaceX and Tesla companies sometime between now and 2030 -- a move that could make reaching his rough sales targets significantly more feasible.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) is scheduled to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market capitalization.
For SpaceX, inclusion in the index represents a significant step toward mainstream recognition beyond technology investors. With that said, history shows that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 rarely serves as an independent driver of sustained outperformance.
Image source: Getty Images.
Watch out for momentum traders The anticipation of inclusion in a major index tends to amplify trading volume and expand valuation multiples as momentum traders and growth funds pile in ahead of the official rebalancing date. Let's take a look at what happened with the share prices of some companies that joined the Nasdaq-100 in recent years.
Peloton Interactive was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2020. Leading up to its inclusion in the index, Peloton saw its shares surge nearly 400% as the COVID-19 pandemic supercharged demand for at-home fitness equipment. Shortly after joining the index, Peloton reached an all-time price of $167. But within about 13 months, Peloton had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 and the stock had fallen roughly 83% from its peak as pandemic tailwinds faded. Also in 2020, Okta experienced meaningful appreciation in its share price as demand for cloud-based identity and access management solutions surged amid the rapid shift to remote work. By early 2021, Okta stock had climbed to an all-time high shortly after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. In a post-pandemic world, however, Okta's growth rates have normalized substantially. As a result, the stock has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading for years now. In December 2024, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, joined the Nasdaq-100. During this calendar year, the stock gained 358%, driven primarily by the company's high-profile Bitcoin treasury strategy. After peaking near the time of its late-2024 addition to the index, Strategy stock declined 68% by the end of 2025 amid shifting sentiment toward crypto proxies and Bitcoin's volatile price action. Palantir Technologies also joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. During that year, the artificial intelligence (AI) analytics darling posted a 340% return. Palantir stock continued to rally through much of 2025, supported by its strong business fundamentals. However, by mid-2026, shares have pulled back sharply from their late 2025 highs -- illustrating how even fundamentally sound companies will experience volatility once an initial wave of buying subsides. Axon Enterprise also posted robust gains throughout 2024 as law enforcement and public safety agencies adopted its AI-enhanced hardware platform. After joining the index in December 2024, Axon -- like Palantir -- maintained upward share price momentum during 2025, yet has experienced notable pullbacks from its peaks this year. The common thread across these examples is that temporary inflows provide a one-time lift rather than a permanent valuation floor. A company's subsequent performance hinges on whether the underlying business consistently delivers impressive execution and guidance once the spotlight of index membership moves elsewhere.
What will happen to SpaceX stock after joining the Nasdaq-100? Just like the companies explored above, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 riding pre-inclusion momentum. This is driven by a combination of enthusiasm among retail investors and mechanical buying by exchange-traded funds. I would not be surprised to see SpaceX stock exhibit some near-term support -- possibly pushing it back toward its highs.
Smart investors understand that this excitement does not alter the need for the company to prove durable progress over the coming quarters, though. Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, and an emerging AI infrastructure business must converge to demonstrate a path to sustained profitability. These factors will ultimately determine whether SpaceX's current valuation can be maintained or expanded.
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Should SpaceX's quarterly updates fall short of the market's already elevated expectations, the stock could easily face profit-taking and trade at a materially lower price one year from now. This is consistent with the pattern observed in several Nasdaq-100 additions in recent history.
While index membership supports liquidity and credibility, it should be seen as a reflection of past achievements rather than a guarantee of strong future results. Investors evaluating SpaceX stock would be wise to focus on the company's operational milestones and cash-flow trajectory rather than the temporary tailwind of index-driven capital inflows. All told, a stock's record after inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is quite mixed and frequently disappointing for investors expecting continued multibagger gains.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Axon Enterprise, Bitcoin, Okta, Palantir Technologies, and Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Now that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX for short, has arrived on Wall Street, investors can begin looking ahead to its first earnings report as a public company. It might be the most anticipated event of the earnings season, expected sometime in early August.
Not only will CEO Elon Musk deliver updates on SpaceX's business, but a ton has happened over the past few weeks. The company is acquiring Cursor, an artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, for $60 billion in stock. Additionally, SpaceX now has just over $100 billion in cash to put to work toward its ambitious goals, including putting AI data centers in space.
Despite all the buzz, I'm not a buyer heading into SpaceX's first earnings report. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX will need time to deliver on its immense potential The company's S-1 filing turned heads, pegging SpaceX's total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. Although most people know SpaceX for Starlink and its rocket launches, the company attributes the vast majority of its addressable market to AI.
SpaceX is certainly a unique company, with a tantalizing mix of growth opportunities across AI and space. However, achieving its ambitious goals, including those orbital data centers, won't happen overnight. Elon Musk is known for setting a high bar, even if it takes years to deliver results.
For as much growth potential SpaceX has in AI, it's also currently the company's least profitable business unit and faces steep competition from OpenAI and others. Starlink is SpaceX's most profitable business, but its revenue growth slowed dramatically from 96.4% in 2024 to 49.8% last year.
SpaceX's IPO is a game changer, and it wouldn't be surprising to see growth accelerate across the company as Elon Musk deploys billions of dollars of fresh capital. That said, SpaceX's appeal is far more rooted in its long-term opportunities than what the company will likely deliver by its first earnings report.
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That valuation could spell trouble in the meantime It's not a bad thing to look ahead. After all, Wall Street typically trades stocks based on what it believes will happen, not the past. But it gets tricky with SpaceX, a stock with a market cap of $2.2 trillion. That's roughly 118 times the company's total revenue last year.
Stocks rarely sustain such high valuations, let alone reach them. There's a high risk that the stock will sell off if SpaceX doesn't deliver strong results or some other catalyst to keep investors willing to pay so much to own shares. At the very least, it's difficult to see how SpaceX can continue to push much higher in the short term. Shares quickly retreated from their highs once the initial IPO excitement wore off.
There's little harm in holding off on buying SpaceX stock until investors see that first earnings report and the tone Elon Musk sets for the company moving forward.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) became a public company on June 12, initially soaring after its initial public offering (IPO), but now the stock is about 19% off its high.
Some investors might be wondering if now is a good time to buy the stock or if they should wait for a more attractive entry point since SpaceX stock went public at a high valuation. So, is now the right time to dive in?
SpaceX is the future SpaceX had an unprecedented and unparalleled IPO, selling more than $86 billion worth of stock. For reference, the previous record holder was Saudi Aramco, which raised $26.6 billion in 2019.
Fans believe SpaceX offers technology that will be relevant in the future, and as it comes to pass, they'll win big. Elon Musk and his team have put people into space, and SpaceX is the world's largest rocket launch company, with 650 launches to date. It has figured out how to make launchers reusable, and it's on a mission to make space travel accessible to humans.
But the space segment is growing slowly, and it's still not profitable. It posted an operating loss of $657 million on $4.1 billion in revenue last year, with revenue up 7.6%.
Image source: Getty Images.
Satellite broadband is another area where it's a leader and where the consequences could be far-reaching. It has 9,600 satellites in orbit and serves 10.3 million customers in 164 countries. It offers broadband in rural areas and other places where standard internet providers don't reach, and the business is thriving, with $1.2 billion in operating income on $3.3 billion in revenue in the 2026 first quarter.
The artificial intelligence (AI) business might be less exciting for investors. The AI segment, xAI, only merged with SpaceX earlier this year. However, this is where the company is investing today and where it sees its greatest opportunities.
Elon Musk has created other companies, like Tesla, that have really changed the world, and SpaceX fans are betting that he can do it again.
However, there are a few problems with the SpaceX thesis. One is that, even though it's on top right now, it faces competition and doesn't necessarily have the economic moat to stay there. Another is its valuation. Even at this lower price, it trades at the nosebleed valuation of 111 times trailing-12-month sales. That's no bargain.
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Further, the stock is likely to drop when the lockup period ends. SpaceX has a staggered lockup period, with the first part set to end the day after the second-quarter results are released. I would tell even the most ardent SpaceX fans to wait it out right now and keep a logical, common-sense investing thesis when considering SpaceX stock.
After a ton of hype and anticipation, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), aka SpaceX, finally began trading on the public market in June. The stock quickly ran to $225 but has since cooled off and settled in the $150-to-$165 range. It's difficult to know what price the stock might hit by the end of 2026, but there are some potential clues.
It may seem difficult to fathom, but I predict SpaceX could trade down near $100 by the end of 2026. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is approaching a major pivotal moment For starters, SpaceX will likely report earnings for the second quarter sometime in August. It's the first earnings report since the IPO, a crucial moment as it's the first chance investors will have to get a fresh look at SpaceX's ongoing business activities. CEO Elon Musk will have the opportunity to lay out updated guidance and expectations for the business over the coming quarters, and Musk seldom shies away from setting the bar high.
But Wall Street has already set high expectations for SpaceX's stock. Based on the company's 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion, the stock's current market cap of roughly $2.07 trillion values SpaceX at over 111 times sales. Investors will struggle to find an established company's stock that is anywhere near as expensive.
That alone isn't troubling, but the business now has to deliver results to justify such a high price tag.
Can SpaceX fall to $100 per share? It's possible Ultimately, SpaceX's lofty valuation is probably the sticking point investors want to home in on over the second half of 2026. History contains many fresh IPO stocks that struggled under the weight of high expectations, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the stock sell off once SpaceX's first earnings report sets new expectations for the coming quarters.
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SpaceX grew revenue by 33% from 2024 to 2025. That's probably not going to cut it for a stock trading at over 100 times its revenue. SpaceX probably needs to accelerate growth. To be clear, that could happen. It has a fresh influx of capital from the IPO and recently announced an agreement to acquire artificial intelligence start-up Anysphere (parent company of AI-powered code editor Cursor) for $60 billion in stock.
But again, the expectations are so incredibly high that it's going to be very difficult to live up to them. SpaceX would still be pricey at 50 times sales. Even if revenue growth accelerated to 50% in 2026 and SpaceX earned $28 billion in sales, that would translate to a market cap of just $1.4 trillion. That's a 36% haircut, pricing shares at approximately $103. That's not even factoring in dilution from the all-stock Anysphere acquisition.
At the end of the day, SpaceX is an exciting company with a tragically expensive stock. It's probably wise to avoid it until the balloon lets out a bit of hot air.
The dust has settled, and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, has been trading on public markets for a few weeks, with a market value between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion. As of this writing on June 30, the space stock and artificial intelligence (AI) upstart now has a market cap of $2.25 trillion, making it the seventh-most valuable company in the world.
But if you look at the underlying financials, SpaceX is actually much smaller than the other megacap technology companies. Does that make the stock officially overvalued?
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Huge growth opportunity ahead of it SpaceX's total revenue was just $18.7 billion in 2026, which is significantly below the hundreds of billions in revenue that other trillion-dollar market cap stocks like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple generate annually. It generates $4 billion in launch revenue, $11.4 billion from its Starlink satellite internet business, and $3.2 billion in AI services revenue.
However, there is significant promise for these businesses to grow in the years ahead. Starlink revenue grew 50% year over year in 2025, and it has a large addressable market to tackle, along with promised innovations to deliver direct-to-device connectivity in the future. AI revenue should begin to grow rapidly in 2026, with new contracts totaling $27.8 billion in annual revenue for data center services. It just acquired Cursor to compete in the AI coding race, which should boost revenue as well.
Lastly, the massive Starship rocket is getting closer to commercialization, which will not only boost launch revenues but also increase capacity to bring Starlink satellites into orbit.
Image source: Getty Images.
Risks of relying on AI and satellite internet While there is a massive opportunity in satellite internet and AI services, SpaceX will be operating in highly competitive fields in the years to come. AI data centers are being aggressively built by many of the megacap technology providers, including a current SpaceX customer, Alphabet. These contracts can be cut at any point with 90 days' notice, meaning if the overbuilding of data centers eventually occurs, SpaceX's AI revenue may be in for a world of hurt.
With satellite internet, SpaceX is the dominant player today but has many competitors nipping at its heels, such as Amazon, Rocket Lab, and AST SpaceMobile, that are investing billions to deploy their own satellite internet constellations. A long-term addressable market in the hundreds of billions will likely not all flow to SpaceX, despite its current lead in the race.
There is no doubt that SpaceX is tackling massive markets in satellite internet and AI; it's just that there is massive competition for a business that generated under $20 billion in revenue in 2025. The company now has a rock-solid balance sheet after the largest IPO in history, which will be necessary to aggressively spend to win in these new markets, with $9 billion in cash burned in Q1 alone.
SpaceX's consolidated business is also not high margin, with a total gross margin just above 50% in 2025 and a $2.5 billion operating loss. This is the largest stock by market cap in history that is not profitable. Even if you just value SpaceX on its revenue, the stock currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) above 100, which is one of the most extreme revenue multiples in market history. The stock is valued as if it were already doing hundreds of billions in revenue, when that may not happen for a decade or longer.
Unless SpaceX can actually achieve its dream of the space economy and AI within a few years, the stock looks wildly overvalued at a market cap of $2.25 trillion.
Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Three weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +2.69%), etched its name in Wall Street's record books.
Prior to SpaceX, no public company had ever raised more than $29.4 billion from an initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' option. SpaceX practically tripled this figure by raising $85.7 billion from its June 12 IPO. It also made SpaceX one of America's largest businesses.
But it'll take a lot more than IPO buzz and history-making moments to convince Wall Street that SpaceX is a stock retail investors should own. Despite several upcoming catalysts, including SpaceX's inclusion in the growth-focused Nasdaq-100, a massive potential fleecing of retail investors awaits, courtesy of the company's accelerated share lockup period.
Image source: Getty Images.
In addition to the largest-ever IPO capital raise, SpaceX's debut was unique in how few shares the company sold. While the 555.6 million shares sold might sound like a lot, it's less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares. Typically, companies that are going public sell 10% to 25% of their outstanding shares.
SpaceX's historically low float (i.e., tradable shares), coupled with forced buying by index funds -- SpaceX was or will be added to the Russell 1000, Russell 3000, and Nasdaq-100 -- can artificially boost its share price.
But this tailwind for SpaceX stock has a rapidly approaching end date. Once Musk's AI and space conglomerate reports its first quarterly operating results as a public company, currently estimated for Aug. 6, the clock starts ticking for insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) to sell their shares.
The lockup for SpaceX shares is like nothing I have ever seen.
Three groups with different lockup regimes.
The largest group has 180 day lockup after IPO, but with a graduated ability to sell based on share price at milestones before then. pic.twitter.com/LvoVGML0F0
-- Adam Rossi (@rossiadam) May 23, 2026 For early release-eligible shares, insider sales can begin two trading days following the first quarterly report. Here's the full breakdown for the early release unlock schedule:
After two full trading days following the first public quarterly report (20% of early release shares) If SpaceX stock is 30% (or more) above its IPO price for five of 10 trading days ending on the second trading day after the first report (10%) Calendar day 70 after its June 12 IPO (7%) Calendar day 90 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 105 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 120 after IPO (7%) Calendar day 135 after IPO (7%) After two full trading days following its second public report in November (28%) Calendar day 180 after IPO (7%) On calendar day 366 after SpaceX's IPO, all remaining shares are eligible to be sold. This includes the shares held by CEO Elon Musk.
In other words, one of the largest wealth transfers in Wall Street's storied history, from SpaceX insiders to unsuspecting retail investors, is roughly a month away from commencing.
Not only will early release-eligible insiders have a clear path to cash in, but SpaceX's prospectus also outlined the likelihood of debt and equity capital raises for the foreseeable future. This can result in share-based dilution that provides added downside pressure on SpaceX stock.
Even with several early catalysts, SpaceX stock looks to be a landmine for retail investors.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Cory Johnson talks about Anthropic ahead of its and OpenAI's upcoming IPOs. On SpaceX (SPCX), Cory argues that “what's best for millionaire Elon Musk, may not be the best for everyone else,” explaining that big indexes buying into the stock takes away price discovery for peers.
Now that the dust has settled a bit from the massive June IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, it looks like the company's $2 trillion-plus valuation isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Does that mean the company could be a buy in July? Here's what investors should consider before jumping in.
Image source: Getty Images.
Beyond space SpaceX is the leading space launch company in the world, and while it has a few noteworthy competitors, it dominates the launch market.
But that's not the big reason investors got so excited about SpaceX. Instead, they're banking on the company's pivot to artificial intelligence (AI). By entering what the company claims is a $26.5 trillion market for AI solutions, SpaceX has massive growth potential. This is true, as far as it goes: Obviously, any company entering a vast, untapped market has the potential to capture a massive share of said market.
The problem is that SpaceX isn't currently priced as though it has a massive potential market to tap; it's priced as though it's already captured a big share of that market.
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Over the trailing 12 months (TTM), SpaceX brought in revenue of $19.3 billion. It also generated TTM operating cash flow of $7.1 billion. Those aren't terrible numbers, but the company is currently being valued at over $2 trillion on the basis of those numbers, which is way out of line with any other company's valuation ... even companies already operating in the red-hot AI sector.
SpaceX's growth is already priced in If SpaceX could rapidly grow its revenue and operating cash flow fivefold, its revenue and operating cash flow would indeed just surpass those of Broadcom (AVGO 2.47%), which currently has a $1.8 trillion valuation. But it still wouldn't be anywhere close to other similarly valued companies:
SpaceX would have to grow its revenue and operating cash flow tenfold to be roughly even with TSMC, and would have to grow them further to catch up to the other companies in the table above. And of course, it would have to achieve profitability, which the others already have.
In other words, why would you pay $2.1 trillion for SpaceX when, even if it grows tenfold, it still won't be bringing in as much revenue, cash, or profits as Meta or Microsoft is now?
Smart investors should avoid SpaceX until the company can show a clear pathway to the kind of explosive growth that would justify its sky-high valuation.
John Bromels has positions in Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) officially priced its IPO at $135 per share. Very quickly, however, the stock's valuation soared to $225 per share. Even following a sharp correction, shares still trade around $170 per share -- well above the IPO price just a few weeks prior.
A report from research firm Morningstar, however, is pumping the brakes. The firm believes SpaceX to be worth just $63 per share -- nearly two-thirds less than the prevailing stock price.
Is SpaceX stock really 169% overvalued? Let's take a look at Morningstar's arguments.
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Morningstar's research team clearly took a very close look at SpaceX's IPO prospectus. That 370 page document lays out the company's plans for growth, as well as its updated financial situation.
There are many factors driving SpaceX's stock price right now. But one of the biggest is the company's claimed total addressable market, or TAM. This measures the expected value of SpaceX's end markets over the long term. In a nutshell, it paints a picture of how big SpaceX could eventually become in the years and decades to come.
"We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history," SpaceX claims. "We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion."
With a market cap of around $2 trillion, there seems to be plenty of room left for SpaceX to grow. But Morningstar's analysts aren't buying it.
"Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism," the firm's report stresses. "Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028."
Image source: Getty Images.
This all gets to the crux of Morningstar's argument. The firm likes SpaceX as a business. But even assuming the company executes on several moonshot growth initiatives, the numbers still don't add up.
"In our most optimistic 'moonshot' scenario, the company would be worth $1.97 trillion, or $154 a share," Morningstar concludes. So even when factoring in total success, SpaceX's current stock price is still above the company's estimated valuation.
It is still possible to pay too much for an otherwise attractive business. And from my perspective, Morningstar's claims have some value. Investors should remember that, even if they love SpaceX as a business, the numbers still need to make sense to warrant an investment.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.83%) stock has been incredibly volatile in the weeks following its groundbreaking IPO.
In many ways, this was expected. The company sold less than 5% of its total outstanding shares during its public sale. That means just a tiny fraction of the company is available for public purchase -- a dynamic that can lead to sudden supply-and-demand imbalances. Most major companies, for comparison, have at least 80% of their outstanding shares trading on public markets.
After pricing its IPO at around $135 per share, the stock immediately soared well above $200 per share. SpaceX shares tumbled in the days to come, bottoming out around $150 per share.
Image source: Getty Images.
Right now, however, a rebound is taking place. With the stock crossing above the $170 mark as of this writing, how much upside does Wall Street see remaining? You might be surprised by the answer.
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Here's what Wall Street thinks about SpaceX stock right now Currently, just seven Wall Street analysts cover SpaceX stock. The predictions are all over the place. The average price target over the next 12 months is roughly $222 -- implying around 30% upside from today's levels. The low estimate is around $115 per share, implying more than 30% downside. The highest price target comes in around $400. SpaceX stock would need to rise more than 130% to reach that estimate.
Not included in the above aggregate numbers is a report from the research firm Morningstar, released just before the IPO. While Morningstar didn't include a formal price target, it did reveal that its independent analysis concluded SpaceX is worth just $63 per share -- nearly two-thirds less than the prevailing stock price.
"Even at $63 per share," the firm warns, "we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028."
With estimates ranging from $63 per share to $401 per share, investors should quickly realize that they cannot blindly trust the guidance of just any "expert." It's important to review multiple analyses and come to your own conclusions. That's especially true for a controversial stock like SpaceX.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Where does the time go? In some ways, given the unavoidable hype behind its initial public offering (IPO) and subsequent stock market launch, it's hard to believe that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), or SpaceX, has been publicly traded for more than half a month.
Now that the heat and noise from takeoff have dissipated somewhat, let's take a look at where the stock and company stand now and whether it's an attractive portfolio addition within reach of the average investor.
Image source: Getty Images.
Holding a half-dozen With $1,000, at SpaceX's closing price earlier this week, you could buy six shares of the famous space company and have a bit of change left over. The question is, of course, whether you would want to own SpaceX.
Those six shares would confer very minor ownership of a very massive company active in a cluster of pushing-the-envelope activities. In fact, its name is somewhat misleading, since, in addition to space exploration, it also builds data centers, operates a satellite broadband/telecom network, manages a high-profile social media network (X, formerly Twitter), and develops artificial intelligence (AI) models.
This makes SpaceX rather sprawling and not a little ungainly. In a way, it's a company that's a bit all over the place, reflecting the frequently mercurial personality of its founder, CEO, and north star, Elon Musk.
That said, all those activities are at the forefront of current consumer tastes and desires. Only one, though, makes a profit.
The company divides its business not all that cleanly into three reporting units. Connectivity (containing the Starlink satellite network) earned nearly $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. It did so by providing its around-the-Earth telecom services and necessary hardware to a broad range of clients willing to pay up for constant connectivity. Operating profitability was also high, at $4.4 billion.
The other two company divisions were deep in the red, though. The capital-intensive space segment generated nearly $4.1 billion in revenue but, due to heavy investments, posted an operating loss of $657 million. The AI unit is spending buckets of capital to build next-generation data centers. Although it brought in $3.2 billion in revenue, its operating loss was chasm-deep at almost $6.4 billion.
All told, SpaceX as a whole earned just under $18.7 billion in 2025. Glancing below the operating profit/loss line on the income statement, the annual net loss was more than $4.9 billion.
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Big spender Investors should bear in mind, though, that relatively early-stage companies habitually post steep operating and/or net losses as they spend capital to build presence and scale.
So should you part with most of that $1,000 to own six shares of SpaceX? Despite the roaring success of Starlink and the AI unit's recent signing of a $1.25 billion-per-month contract to supply processing power from two of its data centers to AI developer Anthropic, the company's capital expenditures will likely remain immense for quite some time.
With that, impatient investors will likely start bailing in the coming years. That's reason enough for me to sit on the sidelines for now.
Six months ago, SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) was a private rocket company. Today, it is a public one worth more than $2 trillion, and its most intriguing new project has nothing to do with launching rockets. In March 2026, Elon Musk unveiled Terafab, a sprawling semiconductor venture, run alongside his electric-car company Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) and AI start-up xAI, with Intel (INTC 5.61%) later signing on to contribute manufacturing technology. The pitch is audacious: build chips not just for cars and robots, but for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in orbit.
For a company this new to the public market, it's worth asking what a bet like that could mean -- and what it's worth today.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Terafab is Terafab begins with a prototype fab in Austin and a far larger complex planned elsewhere in Texas. Intel joined the effort in April to contribute its process technology, including its next-generation 14A manufacturing process for the full-scale plant. The scale is staggering: SpaceX has pegged the initial investment at about $55 billion and the total build-out at up to $119 billion.
Interestingly, the space angle is what sets it apart. Musk has said that a large share of Terafab's output is aimed at chips for artificial-intelligence data centers in orbit, where abundant sunlight provides power, and cooling would be easier.
But here's the catch: This is a disclosed plan -- but a plan, not revenue. The project is early, unproven, and hugely capital-intensive.
Why would a rocket company build chip fabs at all?
The logic ties back to what SpaceX already does better than anyone. It is the one company that can launch heavy payloads to orbit cheaply and at scale, so if AI data centers really do move to space, SpaceX controls the road to get them there -- and Terafab would let it design the hardware that flies. Intel's contribution is the manufacturing know-how that SpaceX and Tesla lack, a reminder that even Musk's companies can't stand up leading-edge chip production from scratch overnight.
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What it means for SpaceX shareholders Today, the company is primarily Starlink plus launch. Per its filings around its June initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX's connectivity segment, primarily driven by Starlink, was about 61% of 2025 revenue, at $11.4 billion, with more than 10 million Starlink subscribers as of March 31. Terafab extends the same logic that built Starlink -- put infrastructure in orbit and sell the capacity -- into another possible leg alongside launch and connectivity.
Meanwhile, Starlink is what makes any of this affordable. The satellite-internet business generates high-margin, recurring revenue and has become the cash engine funding SpaceX's more speculative bets, from Starship to xAI.
If space-based compute becomes real, it would slot in as a natural fourth act -- launch lifts the hardware, connectivity moves the data, and Terafab supplies the brains.
It is a coherent story. But it is also years away from generating a dollar of chip revenue.
And it is expensive. SpaceX is newly public with a limited financial history, and a $119 billion chip project is a huge claim on capital that competes with Starship and Starlink's own expansion. At more than $2 trillion, the stock already bakes in a great deal of optimism, so Terafab looks more like upside optionality rather than something to be sure about today.
Ultimately, I'd treat Terafab as valuable optionality, but not a reason to buy the stock. The company has a lot of things it is working on. Some, like rockets and Starlink, are already material. But other parts of the business are simply more speculative. And it's important for investors to keep this in mind. For a company this new, with this much of its sky-high valuation resting on things that haven't happened, keeping any position small is probably the sensible way to play it.
Two members of Congress — Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., and Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Calif. — have disclosed that they or their family members bought SpaceX stock in the days after the company's historic initial public offering, according to publicly accessible House financial documents.
Meuser recently disclosed that his dependent child made a June 15 purchase of between $15,001 and $50,000 of stock in the company. According to financial disclosures, it was the first time in several years Meuser or one of his family members has bought stock in an individual company.
Cisneros disclosed a June 18 purchase of between $1,001 and $15,000 in SpaceX stock.
SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite company, went public on June 12 with a $2 trillion-plus market cap.
A spokesperson for Meuser did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday.
In a statement, Cisneros told CNBC that he does not personally manage his portfolio.
"My wife and I have always employed outside financial advisors who have a fiduciary responsibility to maintain a diverse portfolio. We do not manage the day-to-day trading of our investment portfolio, nor have we ever suggested a trade while serving in Congress or at the Department of Defense," said Cisneros, who was appointed by President Joe Biden to serve as the under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness in 2021.
"Additionally, while serving in both the executive and legislative branches of the government, I have always complied with all rules and regulations regarding stock trading and financial disclosures. I will also continue to advocate for more ethics oversight of federally elected and politically appointed officials in regard to their financial portfolios," Cisneros' statement continued.
Members of Congress and their immediate family members are allowed to own and trade individual stocks as long as they comply with disclosure rules and do not use confidential information obtained through their official positions. There is no evidence Meuser or Cisneros traded on nonpublic information or violated any law.
The STOCK Act requires lawmakers to disclose transactions by themselves, their spouses and dependent children.
Still, the members' committee assignments make the trades politically sensitive. Meuser sits on the House Financial Services Committee, which has jurisdiction over securities and exchanges, while Cisneros sits on the House Armed Services Committee, which oversees the Defense Department, a major SpaceX customer.
The filings are also likely the tip of the iceberg of what's to emerge from financial disclosures in the following weeks, ethics watchdogs have previously told CNBC. Many expect a host of congresspeople on both sides of the aisle to have traded SpaceX's IPO.
SpaceX went public in June, raising roughly $75 billion in the largest IPO on record. Shares opened at $150 and quickly pushed the company's market value past $2 trillion, turning the listing into a test for public demand around Musk and artificial intelligence.
Musk and his companies have become increasingly important players in Republican politics and federal contracting.
The IPO was the opening shot in what could become a wave of massive public listings by private technology companies, some of which have been at the forefront of policy discussions in Washington, D.C. AI juggernaut Anthropic has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, and rival OpenAI followed soon after, targeting a valuation that could reach $1 trillion.
SpaceX shares closed at $162 on Thursday, up about 8% from their $150 opening price, but roughly 20% below their June 16 closing high of $201.80.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
CNBC previously found that Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., one of the House GOP's top leaders, had a family investment positioned to benefit from SpaceX's public debut after her husband bought as much as $250,000 in xAI before Musk folded the artificial intelligence company into SpaceX.
There is no evidence McClain knew about later government actions involving xAI or traded on nonpublic information.
"Chairwoman McClain's investments are a matter of public record," Joe Buccino, the House Republican Conference communications director, told CNBC in a statement in June. "They have been made in line with all House and applicable laws."
CNBC did not identify any other members of Congress with comparably clear direct stakes in SpaceX or in expected tech IPOs from companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, though private-company holdings can be difficult to trace.
Efforts to ban members of Congress from owning or trading individual stock have percolated for years, but have repeatedly fallen short.
House Republicans leaders vowed at the end of last year to bring to the floor a bill banning members from trading while in office. A similar Senate proposal advanced out of committee in July 2025. Neither chamber has taken further action on a congressional trading ban.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, got off to a hot start after its IPO. From its initial trading price of $150, it rose over the course of a few days to an intraday high of $225.64. Then, after some of the initial hype died down and the company announced it was raising more money via a bond issue, the stock slumped. It has rebounded modestly in recent days, but as of Thursday, it was still about 30% off its all-time high.
So, is SpaceX a great stock to buy on the dip? Or should you be patient?
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX has a big valuation to grow into SpaceX may be one of the more misunderstood stocks in the market. If asked to describe what SpaceX does, many would likely say it launches reusable rockets to deliver payloads into space. While that's true, it doesn't fully capture the nature of the business.
The majority of SpaceX's revenue and growth comes from Starlink, which offers broadband internet connectivity via a constellation of orbiting satellites. The connectivity segment of SpaceX's business is also the most profitable. The space segment, which includes its rockets, accounts for only about 22% of revenue and 11% of profits. The third segment, AI, largely comes from xAI, another Elon Musk-owned company that it recently acquired. That segment generates revenue from anyone who uses the Grok artificial intelligence platform, as well as from the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
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In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue and reported a net loss of $4.3 billion. While that lack of profitability is not the biggest concern, the reality is that SpaceX trades at a massive premium on a price-to-sales basis. With a $2.08 trillion market cap, SpaceX trades for 111 times 2025 sales. Valuations that high are normally reserved for companies that are doubling or tripling their revenue year over year. For 2026, the consensus forecast among Wall Street analysts is that SpaceX will bring in $36.9 billion in revenue. That still prices the stock at 56 times forward sales, which is very expensive for the growth the company is delivering.
This leads me to conclude that SpaceX stock is overvalued, based on its current business. That's important to note, because just like Musk's other public company, Tesla, SpaceX is now being priced based on its CEO's grand plans and promises of future growth.
Investors need to decide for themselves whether today's price is too high or worth the cost for a chance to profit on that potential. Even if the stock trades essentially flat from here, it may be years before SpaceX improves its financials enough to trade at a reasonable valuation. It's also possible that it never will. Until SpaceX can deliver results that match its vaunt, I'm going to stay on the sidelines.
Plus, I think it would be smart for investors to wait until they've seen a few quarterly earnings reports from the company before buying SpaceX stock, as they could reveal more information regarding how its businesses are performing and how management views its growth opportunities.
Wall Street was fascinated by the initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%). Not only was it huge, raising $75 billion from investors (nearly $86 billion if you include the underwriters' overallotment), but the business seems to come straight out of a science fiction novel. According to Jeremy Grantham, that IPO could be a sign that the AI-driven rally is about to break.
Who is Jeremy Grantham? Jeremy Grantham is the co-founder of investment firm GMO. However, his real claim to fame is that he publicly called the top of the Dot-com bubble. The market decline following that top was long and painful, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 80% over several years. It took about 15 years for the Nadaq to regain all the ground it had lost. When Grantham is worried about a market bubble, there's a good reason to listen.
Image source: Getty Images.
He recently warned that the market is the most expensive in history during an interview with CNBC. The big story is the massive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which is driving up AI stocks. That's similar to the overzealous investment in the internet at the turn of the century. And while SpaceX isn't technically an AI stock, it is investing in AI, and CEO Elon Musk has pitched the idea of building AI data centers in space. Grantham sees the massive IPO as another sign of a potential top, noting that internet stock IPOs were similarly big news toward the end of the 1990s.
Grantham is probably right, but what should you do about it? The interesting thing about bear-market predictions is that they are wrong until they suddenly become correct. Bears can be wrong for a long time before quickly looking prescient, with Grantham admitting that the timing of the top he foresees is uncertain. So what is an investor to do? The quick answer is don't panic and sell everything you own, becoming a de facto market timer.
^IXIC data by YCharts
History is very clear. If you bought an S&P 500 Index (^GSPC +0.00%) fund, like SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.13%) or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.07%), or even the Nasdaq Composite index and simply held tight through the Dot-com crash, you would have eventually seen your investment recover and then go on to new highs. Even the Great Recession wasn't enough to stop the broader indexes from continuing their long-term upward climb.
That said, the AI bubble is a potential risk that you might want to address if you have material exposure to AI stocks. That, however, can be achieved by shifting some assets into historically resilient sectors such as consumer staples or utilities. Or, if you are worried about the market's valuation, you can simply invest in a value-oriented ETF.
Grantham is an expert, but be careful how you react You should consider expert opinions when making investment decisions. Grantham qualifies as an expert in investing. However, you shouldn't blindly follow any advice. You need to make sure you invest in a way that makes sense to you and aligns with the market's long-term history. A buy-and-hold approach has been a long-term winner for most investors.
You may want to make changes at the edges, like reducing AI exposure, but dumping your stocks in the hope of avoiding the downturn (and knowing the right time to buy back in) is likely to be a mistake. That's market timing, which very few investors have managed to do profitably over the long term.
After months of hype, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, went public last month. Despite its record-breaking debut as the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history by market cap, the stock is currently down nearly 21% from its peak on June 16.
While some investors are still optimistic that SpaceX will skyrocket after it finds its footing, others are not convinced that it has what it takes to thrive over time.
Nobody can say for certain where SpaceX will be in a decade or two, but if it's anything like previous mega-IPOs, history suggests the humble S&P 500 ETF could be a more lucrative option.
Image source: Getty Images.
Most major IPOs underperform the market, history says Eight of the top 10 largest U.S. IPOs in history have underperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.00%) since going public, according to data from FactSet Research. It's not a particularly close race, either. Collectively, these 10 stocks have fallen short of the index by a median of 127 percentage points since they began trading.
Early performance also isn't a strong indicator of where a stock is headed, historically. Meta Platforms is one of the two companies that have outperformed the S&P 500, and its stock price rose just 1% on its first day of trading. Coinbase Global, on the other hand, surged by 31% on its first day and has since underperformed the S&P 500 by 136 percentage points.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean SpaceX is destined to fall short of the S&P 500. Anything could happen in the coming years, and each stock is unique. But if history shows us anything, it's that larger IPOs don't always have a leg up when it comes to long-term performance.
Is an S&P 500 ETF the better buy right now? Where you choose to invest will depend mostly on your risk tolerance.
SpaceX is far riskier than an S&P 500 ETF, as there are still many unknowns. The company isn't yet profitable and is already overvalued based on key financial metrics. Also, some of CEO Elon Musk's goals -- such as building data centers in space and creating a colony of a million humans on Mars -- are lofty, to say the least.
If SpaceX does succeed in its goals, it could be a lucrative investment. But not all investors will be comfortable with that level of uncertainty, and the near term is likely to be volatile.
^SPX data by YCharts
The S&P 500 ETF is a more stable option, as this investment has decades of history earning positive total returns despite short-term volatility. Also, because SpaceX is not yet listed in the S&P 500 (and won't be for at least a year, assuming it's profitable by then), it can be a smart choice for investors looking specifically to avoid this company.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in the stock market, but for investors seeking consistency, it's hard to go wrong with an S&P 500 ETF.
In the first days after the initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock appeared like an instant winner as it soared 67% from the original $135 price, 50% from the June 12 open at $150, and 38.47% from the day’s close at $162.95.
Despite the initial SPCX shares’ performance that appeared to fly as high as SpaceX rockets, the equity reversed just as rapidly after hitting the all-time high (ATH) of $225.64 on June 16 and even, in subsequent weeks, briefly fell below the day-one range.
On July 2, Elon Musk’s newer public company closed at $162, while the SpaceX stock price today stood at $160.95 by press time on July 3 following a 0.65% extended-session drop.
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Google Still, while the gains would have significantly diminished relative to mid-June, a $5,000 investment made at the SpaceX IPO share price of $135 would have grown to a $6,000 position for $1,000 in profits by the Thursday evening bell.
Making a purchase of the same size on the morning of June 12 would have led to somewhat smaller $400 gains and holdings worth $5,400.
However, buying shares of SPCX on the evening of the IPO day would have yielded a $29 unrealized loss as the investment dropped to $4,971. Traders unfortunate enough to buy $5,000 worth of SpaceX stock close to the ATH would have lost $1,410.
Looking ahead, the future of SpaceX appears significantly more uncertain at the beginning of July, even in the short term, than it did as recently as the June 12 SPCX IPO.
SpaceX stock price prediction for the next 12 months For example, the top-level view provided by rating aggregators such as TipRanks shows that Wall Street experts lack the confidence needed for a “Strong Buy’ average rating.
Indeed, out of the nine recommendations showcased on the platform, one views shares of SPCX as a ‘Sell,’ and there is an equal split between ‘Buy’ and ‘Hold’ ratings. Still, the balance is slightly skewed toward bullish, with the average 12-month price target showing an expected 30.16% rally to $210.86, suggesting Wall Street still sees upside for the SpaceX share price.
Shares SpaceX chart for next 12 months by Wall Street. Source: TipRanks Moving beyond the aggregator platforms, the former hedge fund manager and TV host Jim Cramer is, based on his comments, positive toward SpaceX stock despite being skeptical about the speed of the initial rally.
On the other end of the spectrum, Morningstar published a report around the time of the SpaceX IPO in which it explained its most likely scenario would see Elon Musk’s rocket, internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company effectively halve in value.
The AI side of the equation itself presents potential headwinds. While SpaceX’s agreements to rent out capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) were seen as both transformative and positive for the firm’s revenue, they came with an implication that xAI’s own models were not popular enough to fully occupy Colossus 1 and Colossus 2.
While the supply and demand side of the business model went relatively underdiscussed, reports that Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is considering a similar approach brought the question of the actual need for data centers – and implications for chipmakers and similar hardware giants – into investors’ consciousness.
Indeed, by press time on July 3, it would appear that the fears regarding SpaceX’s fundamentals and the destabilization of the AI boom narrative have proven sufficient to severely limit the expected upside from the SPCX stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, scheduled for July 7.
Nonetheless, the resulting index fund automatic buying activity is still likely to trigger at least a short-term rally before insiders gain and then slowly increase their ability to sell their SpaceX stakes.
SpaceX could end up in your retirement account next.
Cheng Xin/Getty ImagesWhen SpaceX's initial public offering debuted on June 12, it broke a Wall Street record as the highest-valued IPO in financial history, raising over $75 billion in cold, hard cash. The Frankensteined amalgamation of Elon Musk's aerospace and AI ventures is now one of the world's largest-traded companies, with a public valuation hovering around $2 trillion.
Since xAI is bundled inside SpaceX, this also marks the first time an AI giant has entered the public market, beating out competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic.
After years of private tech firms closing the books on public investment, a wave of fresh IPOs has sparked a frenzy among retail investors hungry for a piece of the biggest companies in the world.
That fever is what made SpaceX's public stock offering a rousing success on the first day of trading. Shares soared far past their opening price of $135, surging 19% to $161 by the closing bell. Over the last several weeks, share prices have risen and fallen with daily volatility.
Whether you planned to be financially involved with an AI company or a Musk business venture, you might not have a choice in the matter. SpaceX stock is likely going to end up in your retirement account, and potentially millions of children's savings accounts. Here's everything you need to know.
Once SpaceX was publicly listed, Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMusk became the world's first trillionaire (then he wasn't)Musk, the CEO and largest shareholder of SpaceX and Tesla, is the first person in the world to reach a net worth of over $1 trillion, though his trillionaire status depends on the day of the week.
At its highest point since the SpaceX IPO, Musk's net worth was $1.32 trillion. But the former DOGE head's stratospheric level of wealth is largely tied to Tesla and SpaceX stock, which fluctuate in value. After stocks fell on June 23, his net worth dropped to $957 billion. Musk recently regained his trillionaire status.
Musk also lays claim to tangible assets -- SpaceX's aerospace hardware, Starlink satellites, AI servers and the X social media platform, combined with Tesla's automobiles, solar panels and experiments in robot technology -- which all tally up value on company balance sheets.
Tied to Musk's wealth is his nearly cultlike image as a visionary with an outsize influence on markets, culture and politics. Though many of Musk's promises never materialize, he routinely makes lofty claims about sending crewed missions to colonize Mars, producing fully self-driving cars and creating robots akin to "your own personal R2 unit."
SpaceX stock has seen expected volatilityAhead of SpaceX's public debut last month, major institutions like JPMorgan warned that SpaceX would be a volatile roller coaster ride, due in part to the disconnect between the company's massive cash burn on AI data centers versus its lofty revenue promises.
SpaceX's gains accelerated after Day 1, with the stock reaching an all-time high of $225.64 per share on June 16. Facing rough market conditions, the stock then tumbled, wiping out previous gains before settling around $154 per share on June 22. By the end of June, SpaceX stock had begun slowly clawing back some of its losses, hovering around $170.
CNN reported that SpaceX has consistently ranked among the top two most traded stocks each day since the IPO.
SpaceX will soon debut on the Nasdaq-100. That will legally require shares to be purchased and added to the retirement accounts of millions.
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesSpaceX could be in your retirement account soonSpaceX stock could soon end up in millions of 401(k) retirement accounts, even if you never chose to invest in it. A recent Nasdaq rule change allowed Musk to circumvent the usual 12-month vetting period for SpaceX's inclusion, clearing the way for the company to enter the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on July 7.
A video report from More Perfect Union alleges that Musk strong-armed SpaceX into being automatically purchased by index funds. Critics have argued that this move quietly shifts the risk onto everyday families and retirees, whose investment accounts will take a hit when the market dips. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate (PDF), warning the move set a "dangerous precedent" for future public offerings.
Analysts like former economic advisor Jared Bernstein say that avoiding such exposure may be difficult because index fund structures make it hard for you to opt out. "These tech bros are using their immense market clout to jam these potentially volatile and heretofore profitless assets into millions of retirement accounts," wrote Bernstein on Substack.
Musk is still firmly in chargeAs SpaceX's largest shareholder, Elon Musk owns roughly 42% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. Even without owning a majority of the equity, that stake translates into control.
Much of Musk's ownership comes in the form of super-voting shares, giving him 85% of the voting power and a decisive influence over SpaceX's future.
This level of power stands out in Big Tech. Many Silicon Valley founders, like billionaires Bill Gates and Peter Thiel, have completely divested themselves of their initial brainchildren. Others have significantly reduced their stakes: Mark Zuckerberg owns 13% of Meta, while Sergey Brin owns 6% of Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
Solo investors were unusually well-represented in the buyout of SpaceX's IPO shares.
Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto/Getty ImagesRetail investors were pulled into the mixWhen a large company goes public, most shares are typically gobbled up by Wall Street power players and institutions: banks, hedge funds and mutual funds. A small amount of the shares, usually around 10%, is usually carved out for retail investors, i.e. everyday people who buy and sell investments for themselves.
SpaceX stood out by carving out a much larger share -- 30% -- to retail investors. But that didn't necessarily translate into broader access. Financial Times editor Robin Wigglesworth noted that an unusually large retail allocation can signal weak demand from professional investors. The problem is that when shares are spread out, the burden shifts to less sophisticated buyers, who then have to absorb SpaceX's wild valuation swings.
Despite the larger retail investor carveout, demand still outpaced supply, and there weren't enough shares to go around to everyday investors during the IPO, according to CNBC. Some chose to sell immediately on the first day, a factor that may have contributed to SpaceX's sky-high trading rate.
SpaceX hasn't actually posted any profitsSpaceX is pulling in huge revenue, but it's still operating at a loss. The Information reported that although the company generated more than $18.5 billion in revenue in 2025, Musk's aerospace and AI company still lost nearly $5 billion.
A major reason is massive spending on "chips and data centers" to power xAI projects, which reportedly cost SpaceX $13 billion last year. Depreciation of rockets, satellites and other aerospace equipment accounted for another $6.6 billion in expenses.
Regardless of its negative cash flow, market enthusiasm for SpaceX shows it's still valued like a future powerhouse. That disconnect reflects a broader pattern in tech and AI in particular, where expectations are high even when profits are thin. Musk's soaring net worth is part of the same "vibes-based accounting," where market hype outruns actual financial results.
Musk showed up to rallies for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, fostering a working relationship between the two wealthy elites.
Peter W. Stevenson/The Washington Post/Getty ImagesMusk and SpaceX could boost Trump, againMusk's relationship with President Donald Trump could be warming again, at least enough for SpaceX to surface in talks around the administration's new Trump financial accounts for kids. Semafor reported that officials have discussed donating SpaceX stock to seed the accounts.
Trump accounts are designed as custodial, IRA-style investment accounts for children, intended to nudge the next generation to participate in the stock market. Some supporters see them as a way to encourage long-term investing, while critics are raising concerns that the accounts will disproportionately benefit well-off American families.
Tensions between Musk and Trump have appeared to ease in recent months, following a very public falling-out and a social media scuffle over the White House's budget bill last year. If SpaceX stock ends up inside those accounts, it would give the program a very direct link to Musk and a highly visible role in a politically backed investment push.
SpaceX may have sent a red flag to OpenAISpaceX's record-breaking debut may have shaken OpenAI's plan to go public. According to the New York Times, CEO Sam Altman had been exploring an IPO as soon as this year, with bankers and lawyers pushing for a valuation near $1 trillion. Now it's more likely that OpenAI will wait until 2027 to make its publicly traded debut, according to people involved in the deliberations.
While it's impossible to nail down an exact reason for the change of heart, pushing forward with an AI IPO in a market skeptical of SpaceX's high-flying valuation could be what's spooking Altman. OpenAI's advisors have also reportedly cautioned the company against moving too soon, warning that it lacks the built-in Musk-driven attention that helped fuel SpaceX's market debut.
Institutional investors, who form the backbone of any public offering, may not react as enthusiastically to a less established company that's also operating at a massive financial loss. And after experiencing market volatility associated with the SpaceX IPO, retail investors might not be quick to open their wallets for OpenAI either.
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President Donald Trump spoke about his and Elon Musk's public falling-out. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images President Donald Trump said he thinks Elon Musk will donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts, the US government's savings program for children.
In an interview with CNBC that aired Thursday, Trump said he hadn't spoken with Musk directly since he briefly became the world's first trillionaire following SpaceX's record-breaking IPO.
"I wrote him a note, I said congratulations," Trump said.
Asked directly whether Musk might donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts, the president said: "Well, I think that he will do that."
While SpaceX's stock has been volatile since its $85 billion IPO last month, it remains one of the world's most valuable companies. Should Trump's expectations materialize, it would join a growing list of corporate contributions flowing into Trump Accounts.
Trump Accounts, created under last year's Republican tax and spending law, are tax-advantaged investment accounts seeded with $1,000 from the Treasury for every American child born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028. The money will be invested in low-fee US equity index funds and converted into a retirement-style account when the child turns 18.
In his CNBC interview, Trump singled out Michael Dell, whom he called a "fantastic guy," for a $6.25 billion donation to the program, as well as a pledge from Micron. "That's a tremendous amount, I don't care how rich you are," Trump said.
Companies such as Uber, Comcast, and Wells Fargo have also confirmed they will contribute to employees' children's accounts. Employers like BlackRock, Intel, and JPMorgan Chase have said they will match the government's $1,000 deposit.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a Business Insider request for comment.
Trump said his relationship with Musk remains strong, describing their past falling-out as a "little dispute" rooted in his decision to remove subsidies and mandates for electric vehicles. Prior to that, Musk backed Trump's presidential campaign and later spearheaded an initiative to cut government spending.
"He backed me 100%. He liked me, still likes me," Trump told CNBC, adding that Musk was "not thrilled" when Trump followed through on his campaign pledge to reduce incentives for electric vehicles.
"I can understand it, but he's doing good," Trump said.
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Georgia Hennessy You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Georgia is a fellow at Business Insider's London office.Before joining Business Insider, she worked at Japan's largest newspaper, The Yomiuri Shimbun, and interned at the Financial Times. She is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with a degree in Philosophy from the University of Birmingham. You can contact her via email at [email protected]
The initial public offering (IPO) hype surrounding Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, has died down a bit. Now that it has cooled off, some investors might wonder if now is the time to buy the dip on the stock as it sits around the $2 trillion mark.
So, is now the right time to consider SpaceX stock? Or should you be patient? Let's take a look.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's selling pressure could rise The issue with hyped-up IPOs like SpaceX is that a lot of investors rush in, then sell quickly when they get 10% to 20% gains. After a while, this trend fulfills itself, and the stock starts to decline until buying and selling pressure balance out. This is just the market working its way toward an agreeable stock price, and we should see SpaceX stock stabilize over the next few months. However, there's another trend that could start over the next few months.
Right now, early-stage SpaceX investors cannot sell their shares. Elon Musk is prohibited from selling SpaceX stock until 366 days after the IPO. So all of his gains are just on paper right now. There is also a staggered release of shares, starting after the Q4 earnings release and continuing through the Q2 2027 earnings for insiders and other investors. This will increase the float of shares available and likely result in a lower stock price because there is greater demand to sell shares.
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As a result, SpaceX's slide may not be over for some time. To top things off, SpaceX issued $25 billion in debt shortly after its IPO. That's a bit of a red flag because SpaceX just raised over $85 billion by going public. That's over $100 billion in newly found cash for SpaceX, and investors will want to see a solid return on investment with that money.
There are a lot of unknowns about SpaceX's ability to execute from quarter to quarter. All of this suggests that investors need to be patient with SpaceX's stock.
I think there is a far greater chance for the stock to slump than skyrocket over the short term. Investors would be best served by staying patient and waiting to see how the company executes as a public entity. This could save major headaches in the end and also allow investors to invest in other, less hyped-up stocks in the meantime that could deliver even greater growth than SpaceX.
There are far too many great stocks out there to be an early-stage SpaceX investor. Investors should look elsewhere first.
Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
It’s getting tougher to reach for yields within the telecom sector, especially when you have a company like Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) out there with its disruptive satellite connectivity business, Starlink, which might just be the cash cow the firm needs to fuel its other, more ambitious voyages. In its current state, it feels like Starlink is mostly seen as connecting rural homes rather than urban environments.
However, that could change with time as the technology becomes better at beaming data from space to devices and through walls. Of course, those big cell towers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, as they just get the job done better. But the big question on the minds of investors is how long before Starlink can become more of a direct-to-consumer kind of mobile service provider.
With SpaceX also reported to show off a device, something that Elon Musk himself was quick to deny, questions linger about what direction Starlink is headed next, and whether it has what it takes to disrupt a very profitable corner of the market.
Though I don’t know what to make of the AI device prototype rumors and reports that have been floating around this week, I do think that I would be just a bit concerned if I were a shareholder in a hard-hit telecom company right now.
Could satellites reduce or eliminate the need for cell towers? I wouldn’t rule it out. While it feels far-fetched to think satellites will disrupt cell towers, I certainly wouldn’t ignore the longer-term potential behind any sort of Starlink Mobile kind of service. It’s not just satellites and the technology behind them that stand to improve drastically over time, but the chips within smartphones and other devices also stand to get better on the receiver side.
Indeed, Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) upcoming iPhone 18 Pro model is rumored to feature the in-house C2 chip, which could change the way we think about satellite connectivity. As the new chip enables devices to browse the web using satellite connectivity, perhaps it’s only natural to question where the technology could go next. We’ve come a long way since the days when satellite connectivity was just a nice-to-have for smartphone users who got stuck in the wild and were in need of help.
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While Elon Musk has been known to be quite ambitious, I do think that the telecom business is about to become a whole lot more competitive, especially as Starlink looks to challenge the dominance of telecom incumbents that might not have what it takes to compete if we do reach a phase where cell towers just aren’t needed anymore. We hear about how nobody wants an AI data center in their backyard, but what about those unsightly cell towers?
Arguably, SpaceX is closer to eliminating the need for such terrestrial cell towers before data centers. While there are challenges that exist that could prevent direct-to-device connectivity that’s on the level of a cell tower, I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against SpaceX and Elon Musk as they’re serious about taking Starlink to the next level. As it turns out, there’s more than just dreams when it comes to the space economy.
Starlink’s disruptive threat is real In my view, the threat of Starlink bypassing traditional carriers is real. As to whether SpaceX will decide to go down the phone route as well or open up the low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation to phone makers prepared to pay remains the big question. I think the latter makes far more sense, especially since there are more urgent projects for SpaceX to spend money on.
Most notably, AI and space-related endeavors. Will Elon Musk change his mind with an AI phone at some point down the road? I have no idea. For now, one has to believe the man when he says that the report of such a device is “utterly false.” In my view, I don’t get why the firm would want to get into that business when there are more pressing matters to tackle.
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Rarely do investors hold a stock for 100 years. But thinking about what will happen to a business over such a long stretch of time can help investors keep an eye on the long term, critically analyzing the key factors that will make the business successful in the decades to come.
Where might SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) be one century from now? We have a few clues from the company's IPO prospectus.
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These are the foundations for SpaceX's next 100 years To understand what might happen to SpaceX over the next century, it's critical to understand four major catalysts.
The first is the commercialization of the company's Starship megarocket. Starship would be, by far, the biggest rocket ever commercialized at scale. It will dramatically lower the costs involved in getting a payload to space, as well as rapidly accelerate the timeline for getting more things into space. The success of SpaceX's Starship rocket is arguably the most important pillar for getting the next three catalysts below off the ground.
After Starship is commercialized, SpaceX will have a real chance at launching data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers. There are real physics challenges involved with operating data centers in the vacuum of space. But low ambient operating temperatures, vast stretches of free, open "real estate," and huge amounts of free solar energy make the effort too attractive to pass up. If orbital data centers are realized, it makes the next long-term growth catalyst even more valuable.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's Starlink internet service is already profitable. If data centers are scaled in space, however, this division becomes even more attractive. AI companies can send their data into space via Starlink's satellites, running compute on SpaceX's orbital data centers, and sending the results back to Earth on Starlink's network. It's a vertically integrated network that can support what should become a multitrillion-dollar AI economy.
Over the next century, SpaceX should get even more vertically integrated by producing its own AI chips through a venture it calls Terafab: a chip manufacturing initiative with a long-term goal of producing one terawatt of compute hardware each year.
If all of these efforts succeed, SpaceX can shoot for its fourth major growth catalyst: interplanetary life. According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the company seeks "ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets." This is where everything comes together. SpaceX wants to launch Starships to the Moon and beyond, repurposing landed Starships into permanent living and working infrastructure. Starlink satellites and orbital AI data centers, meanwhile, will aid in communication and workflows by overcoming power and latency limits inherent in terrestrial connections.
A century from now, SpaceX could be operating the first permanent human bases on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. But it all begins with successfully commercializing its Starship megarocket.
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TechnologyIn this article
SpaceX stock rose in the holiday-shortened week after joining the Russell 1000 index. (Dreamstime)
SpaceX stock had a good first week in the Russell 1000 and the index was all the better for it, too.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) has had a highly successful first few weeks on equity markets after its debut in the biggest IPO in history. However, the company has experienced a pullback. Not to worry, says Wall Street, as the dip may be a buying opportunity. SpaceX's average price target of $188.17 (According to Yahoo! Finance) represents an upside of 19% from its current levels. Should investors rush to buy SpaceX's shares right now?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Mind your risk tolerance The excitement surrounding SpaceX comes from several sources. First, the company's CEO, Elon Musk, is a trailblazer. He's not afraid to make aggressive bets and pursue potentially transformative strategies, and that has paid off for him in the past. Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) has delivered outstanding returns since its 2010 IPO with Musk at the helm. He has also helped revolutionize space travel, notably through SpaceX's pioneering work on reusable rockets, which significantly reduced launch costs. Second, SpaceX is by far the leader in some of the markets it operates in. The company dominates orbital launches.
Also, SpaceX's Starlink, which offers high-speed internet through a network of Low Earth Orbit satellites, is currently its most important business. SpaceX is the top player in this niche, with far more satellites in orbit than its competitors. The company's work with reusable rockets enabled it to scale this business faster than its peers. Third, SpaceX is looking to tap into lucrative opportunities. The company estimates that its total addressable market across space, internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) is $28.5 trillion.
Provided the company can grab even a fraction of this over the next decade, its revenue and earnings will soar, as will its share price. Lastly, SpaceX arguably has a competitive advantage from economies of scale thanks to its vertically integrated strategy.
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With all that said, there remain significant risks with investing in SpaceX. Though Musk is a trailblazer, he is also a polarizing figure, and one who is now the CEO of two major public corporations. It's not unheard of for a single man to successfully head two publicly traded companies, but it's not easy either. Further, despite SpaceX's pioneering of reusable rockets, other companies are actively trying to catch up.
Note the similarity with Tesla. It helped make electric vehicles (EVs) mainstream, and it still has the best-selling EV on the market. However, it now has far more competition and has seen a slowdown in EV sales in recent years. It even briefly lost its status as the largest EV company by deliveries, although it regained it.
The lesson: a first-mover advantage and a large lead over competitors matter. But even with those advantages, SpaceX could eventually see other space companies catch up and steal significant market share. The same is true with its Starlink business. In the meantime, SpaceX's financial results don't justify its valuation. Its revenue last year was $18.7 billion, while it lost almost $5 billion.
All these factors (and more) make SpaceX a fairly risky stock that will be highly volatile. It may not match The Street's price target over the next year as the excitement surrounding its IPO dies down. In the meantime, investors should wait for a much steeper pullback before initiating a position in this stock.
SummarySpaceX is evolving into an integrated launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure platform, with AI expected to become its primary long-term growth driver.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, while AI hosting agreements imply approximately $26 billion in annualized recurring revenue.Starship V3 is expected to increase payload capacity twentyfold and reduce launch costs per kilogram by roughly ten times, strengthening internal economics.Despite strong growth prospects, SPCX reported a $4.94 billion FY2025 net loss, a $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss, and raised $25 billion through bonds.Investors should monitor AI hosting revenue, operating margin improvement, and cash burn, as execution will determine whether the premium valuation remains justified. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO investment story extends well beyond launch services. It is becoming an end-to-end infrastructure platform covering space transport, connectivity, and AI computing. Now that SpaceX has gone public, investor attention is more likely
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The long-awaited IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX for short, finally arrived on June 12. Shares shot up like a rocket on their first day of trading, soaring to $150 and then to $225 in short order. But the stock has reversed course just as quickly, falling back to around $150, a round trip that took place in under two weeks.
A lot is happening with SpaceX right now, from rampant hype around space and artificial intelligence (AI) to the company's recent $60 billion acquisition of Cursor. But there is real, underlying math that helps explain why SpaceX stock is so volatile right out the gate, and what it might mean for the stock price moving forward.
Looking at SpaceX's quick surge and sudden decline SpaceX was the largest IPO in history, and arguably one of the most hyped. There were tons of investors who wanted to buy shares. By design, SpaceX only made a small portion of its total stock publicly available on IPO day, just 4.24%. These publicly tradable shares are called the float.
The small float and overwhelming demand for SpaceX shares created a classic supply-and-demand situation, in which the stock price rocketed higher in the days immediately following its market debut. But demand eventually peaks, and investors saw SpaceX reverse course after reaching about $225 per share.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
So, why did the stock cool off? There are probably a few reasons. First, SpaceX's stock was very expensive at its high. Second, the company is funding its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor with stock, diluting existing investors. The market often sells off stocks in these scenarios to reflect the anticipated dilution. Lastly, IPO day is often when excitement peaks. Investors then have a few days to step back and assess, and that hype and excitement usually fade a bit.
Where is the rest of SpaceX's stock? Newly public companies have lockup periods that prevent insiders and employees from dumping their stock into the buying frenzy on IPO day. While typical lockup periods are around 180 days, SpaceX is using a staggered lockup period that gradually allows insiders to sell and expand the float at a controlled pace.
The earliest selling window opens after SpaceX's first earnings report, assuming the stock meets certain share price thresholds. There are several windows after that, building up to the traditional lockup expiration after 180 days. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk and other significant investors are subject to a 366-day lockup, allowing them to begin selling shares on June 14, 2027.
Remember, investors can currently trade only 4.24% of SpaceX's total shares. The current float of approximately 555.6 million shares could multiply as these lockups expire over the next year. Circling back to the supply-and-demand dynamic, a steadily growing float puts a thumb on the supply side of the scale.
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Looking at where SpaceX's share price might go from here Meanwhile, SpaceX still trades at a $2 trillion market cap, approximately 110 times its 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion. It remains one of the market's most expensive stocks, even after the recent dip. High valuations create high expectations. The selling pressure could intensify if SpaceX cannot deliver the growth to justify such a high valuation.
There are several reasons to love SpaceX as a long-term investment. That said, the stock's quick dip from $225 could be a warning sign of how quickly SpaceX can shed value if market sentiment turns against it. Understanding how the float will expand over the coming year will help investors weigh the risks of buying shares now versus waiting for the dust to settle.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) went public on June 12 at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Three weeks later, the rocket, satellite-internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company commands a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. Only a handful of companies have ever been worth that much -- and every one of them earned billions in profits when it got there.
SpaceX is different. Across 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, its reported losses add up to a trailing net loss of about $9.4 billion, set against roughly $19.3 billion in trailing revenue.
That combination raises a question worth answering before the company joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 -- an event that will make index funds automatic buyers of the stock. Has a money-losing business ever been valued this highly? And if it hasn't, should investors care?
Image source: Getty Images.
A price arguably without precedent Start with the historical check. The market has valued unprofitable companies richly before, but the previous standard-bearers operated on a different scale entirely. Rivian, the electric-truck maker, briefly commanded a market value of about $150 billion in late 2021 while deeply unprofitable -- and that stood out as extreme at the time. Uber ran years of losses with a valuation that topped out around $100 billion. Amazon, the dot-com era's favorite money-loser, was worth only tens of billions back when it was losing money.
SpaceX's $2.1 trillion is roughly 14 times the Rivian benchmark. I can't find a money-losing company in market history that has come anywhere close. So it's safe to say that SpaceX appears to be the most valuable unprofitable company the market has ever seen.
Now, the loss itself deserves a closer look, because it isn't the loss of a struggling business. According to the company's IPO prospectus, SpaceX -- whose filings also include xAI, the AI business it absorbed -- generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, and lost $4.9 billion. Then it lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
But the composition matters. Starlink, the satellite-internet business, produced $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue -- about 61% of the total -- and generated $4.4 billion in operating profit. The losses come from everything surrounding it: about $3 billion a year of research and development spending on the Starship rocket program, plus the enormous computing costs of the AI operation. In plain terms, one highly profitable business is funding two gigantic bets.
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What a $2.1 trillion price tag demands What makes the record more than trivia is what it implies about expectations. At about $2.1 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its trailing revenue -- not its earnings, its revenue. A price like that requires nearly everything to go right: Starlink must keep compounding for years, Starship must eventually turn its development spending into dramatically cheaper access to space, and the AI bet must justify losses that are widening, not narrowing. The $75 billion raised in the IPO buys time, but it doesn't change what has to happen.
Fresh evidence is coming. SpaceX hasn't yet announced the date of its first earnings report as a public company, but that report -- expected this summer -- will offer the first new numbers since the prospectus, including whether Starlink's growth and margins are holding up and how fast the Starship and AI spending is scaling.
The answer to the headline question, then, is yes: Investors should care -- not because losses disqualify a stock, but because of the expectations this price locks in. Amazon lost money for years and became one of the great investments of all time. The difference is that Amazon's doubters could buy it for tens of billions. SpaceX asks investors to pay a price that already assumes the bets pay off, from a company that has yet to file a single quarterly report as a publicly traded company, with fortunes still closely tied to CEO Elon Musk.
Personally, I'll let the first few earnings reports answer the questions the prospectus can't. Records are fascinating. That doesn't make them buyable.
The historic initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), more commonly known as SpaceX, represented a watershed moment in capital markets. The IPO price of $135 per share valued the company at approximately $1.75 trillion.
However, SpaceX stock opened on Nasdaq near $150 -- achieving a $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading. At its debut, SpaceX was instantly among the world's most valuable public companies.
SpaceX's swift entry into the trillion-dollar club underscores enthusiasm for its blend of launch capabilities, expanding satellite network, and bold forays into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While the IPO was monumental, a bigger question now centers on whether this momentum can scale the company to an unprecedented market capitalization over the coming decade.
Let's dig into SpaceX's growth prospects and assess if the stock can feasibly reach a $10 trillion valuation in the years ahead.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What does SpaceX's revenue trajectory look like? SpaceX's revenue profile is supported by three interconnected pillars that evolve at different rates.
SpaceX's launch business should continue to benefit from its reusable rocket technology, combined with rising global demand for satellite deployment and crewed missions. Starship's maturation is expected to bring further cost reductions to orbital operations, potentially unlocking a higher launch cadence and new commercial and government contracts. I think it's reasonable to expect this segment to generate steady, not explosive, growth as competition in the space exploration industry intensifies.
Starlink represents the company's nearest growth engine. The constellation has already brought broadband connectivity to remote regions and is expanding aggressively across maritime, aviation, and enterprise markets. Given this success, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan cites Starlink's potential to disrupt traditional telecoms through direct-to-cell capabilities, positioning the network as a global connectivity layer that could capture market share from terrestrial providers.
The most transformative upside, however, lies in AI infrastructure. Over the last month, SpaceX has secured $82 billion worth of partnerships with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Meanwhile, the company is exploring cross-synergies with xAI for model training and Cursor for developer tooling.
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What would it take for SpaceX to reach a $10 trillion valuation? SpaceX's current trading levels already reflect extraordinary optimism. Based on its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, SpaceX commands a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 110 -- rich by any historical standard. Furthermore, Wall Street's long-term forecasts diverge sharply on the company's revenue profile.
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, fueled primarily by the AI division, which is expected to surge from roughly $3 billion today to $322 billion. Analysts at Morningstar built a comprehensive discounted cash flow (DCF) model and concluded that SpaceX has a far more conservative growth profile. Morningstar projects that SpaceX will generate only $67 billion in revenue by 2030 and could scale to roughly $500 billion by 2045. The disparity in Goldman and Morningstar's timelines to reach roughly the same revenue profile is striking. Oppenheimer was less granular on absolute dollars but emphasized a total addressable market approaching $10 trillion by 2035 between satellite communications and AI infrastructure.
Blending these perspectives, I think a plausible 10-year revenue estimate for SpaceX could fall in the $200 billion range by the mid-2030s. This would assume continued Starlink subscriber momentum in enterprise markets, successful Starship commercialization, and scaling AI infrastructure contracts converting into a sustained, high-margin revenue stream.
Against this backdrop, reaching a $10 trillion market capitalization at this revenue level would require a forward P/S multiple of 50x. While that's lower than today's multiple, such a valuation still embeds substantial growth expectations and a durable competitive moat.
Smart investors need to be realistic when it comes to SpaceX It's important to note that the math exercise above is inherently speculative and should serve only to illustrate the scale of SpaceX's ambitions. A $10 trillion SpaceX would require near-perfect execution across multiple frontiers simultaneously.
History shows that even the most revolutionary technology platforms rarely sustain the valuation profile and growth rates needed to reach such historic levels without periodic corrections. While SpaceX possesses unique technological momentum and a visionary founder and CEO in Elon Musk, translating these ambitions into consistent, profitable revenue streams at scale remains both a demanding challenge and highly uncertain.
The numbers explored above highlight both the breathtaking upside and the hurdles that SpaceX must clear to justify maintaining a premium valuation. In the end, whether SpaceX becomes the first $10 trillion stock will depend less on today's enthusiasm and more on the consistent execution of management's most ambitious promises throughout the AI infrastructure era.
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until sometime next year. The company has already filed the preliminary paperwork to go public, so the potential delay is a bit of a disappointment to investors who are waiting to invest in the AI juggernaut.
The New York Times reported that advisors to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are telling him that the recent volatility in Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.83%) IPO indicates that now is not a good time for AI companies to go public.
SpaceX stock, after opening at $150 per share on its IPO debut and rising as high as $225 a few days later, is now back down to around $156, as of this writing. Cerebras, another recent IPO by an AI company, also experienced a huge spike on its IPO day, only to see its shares remain volatile in the following weeks.
Investors are indeed concerned that AI companies are spending too much on infrastructure, with hopes of future profits too far down the road.
But OpenAI may be missing the bigger picture: IPOs tend to be highly volatile regardless of the market environment.
Image source: Getty Images.
OpenAI is trying to avoid SpaceX's volatility OpenAI and SpaceX may seem like very different companies, but there's actually a fair amount of overlap between the two. SpaceX owns the Grok AI chatbot and recently made a major $60 billion purchase of Cursor, giving it AI software for programming to better compete with ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude.
SpaceX is also building extensive AI infrastructure for its neocloud business, renting out high-powered processors to AI companies such as Anthropic, Alphabet's Google, and others.
Why does this matter in the context of an OpenAI IPO? Both SpaceX and OpenAI are burning through piles of cash to expand their AI services at a time when investors are starting to doubt companies will see a return on their spending.
SpaceX's 2025 capital expenditures totaled $20.7 billion and are likely to be higher this year, given that Q1 2026 spending was already $10 billion. The company also reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year and doesn't expect to be profitable for at least several years.
OpenAI's detailed financial information isn't publicly available yet, since the company's S-1 filing hasn't been filed, but investors can get a good idea of the company's spending from estimates -- and there's a lot of it.
OpenAI had an operating loss of nearly $21 billion last year and spent about $34 billion. The company has just over $13 billion in revenue for 2025, and says it has an annual revenue run rate of $20 billion.
The point here is that, like SpaceX, OpenAI is spending oodles of dollars to build out its AI empire, and profits aren't close.
The company reportedly aims to reach a $1 trillion valuation when it goes public and to avoid the volatility SpaceX stock has seen thus far. But that's easier said than done, even if SpaceX waits until next year to go public.
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The one thing OpenAI advisors are missing IPOs are inherently volatile, and larger ones can be especially so. Research from Jefferies analysts shows that companies worth $10 billion or more that went public over the past 26 years averaged 26.5% returns in their first week.
Pretty good, right? Except that one year later, they were up by an average of just 3.5%.
Ouch.
The lesson here is that expecting a mega IPO to perform exceptionally well over the next year, even with all of the AI hype that's currently underway, is statistically unlikely, which means that whenever investors can get their hands on some OpenAI shares, they should be prepared for a roller-coaster ride.
That doesn't mean OpenAI shares won't be a good long-term investment, or that SpaceX can't be, for that matter, either. But if you're interested in either stock, it's best to wait about a year before buying.
And with investors unlikely to look the other way on the AI spending sprees underway, I expect much more share price volatility in this space ahead.
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Stock Market Skids As Trump Makes This Trade Call; Jobs Report Due SpaceX stock's stratospheric potential could be just that — potential — as the AI and rockets company reaches the harder limits of reality. The stock may see limited upside due to its lengthy tenure as a private company. As a result, SpaceX (SPCX) stock may be considered a high-risk, high-reward asset. After its founding in 2002, SpaceX spent more than 20…
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) -- commonly called SpaceX -- is probably best known for its Starlink satellite internet and mobile services and its revolutionary reusable rocket technologies that have dramatically lowered the costs for getting satellites and other payloads into orbit. On the other hand, the company is actually positioning artificial intelligence (AI) technologies as the most important part of its growth strategies.
In the S-1 prospectus the company published prior its initial public offering (IPO) in June, it said that roughly $26.5 trillion of its $28.5 trillion total addressable market comes from AI technologies and services. On the other hand, the company's AI segment accounted for only roughly 17% of the $18.7 billion in revenue that it recorded in 2025. With that in mind, could SpaceX really be the ultimate AI infrastructure play for long-term investors?
Image source: Getty Images.
What is SpaceX cooking up in the AI space? Shortly before SpaceX went public, the company announced that it had landed a major AI processing contract with Alphabet's Google division. The deal will see SpaceX providing $920 million a month in AI processing services to Alphabet starting this October, and the contract lasts for three years.
Starting from SpaceX's base of roughly $3.2 billion in AI segment revenue in 2025, the company already looks poised for dramatic growth over the next year just from the Alphabet contract alone. SpaceX's wealth of AI processing technologies built around GPUs from Nvidia allowed it to win a large long-term contract with Alphabet -- and that's a great sign that the company is in good position to win other big deals with leading tech customers.
SpaceX is also aiming to revolutionize the AI infrastructure market with its construction of orbital data centers. By putting data centers in space, the company could be able to leverage more direct and reliable access to solar energy and dramatically cut down on the high electricity expenses needed to run data centers.
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On the other hand, there are heat diffusion engineering problems associated with orbital data center technologies -- and other challenges as well. For starters, the data center hardware will need to be shipped into space. As the leader in low-cost rocket launches, SpaceX is uniquely positioned to handle the costs associated with the task.
There are also other big challenges involved. While orbital data centers may offer some substantial efficiency improvements when it comes to power sources, they may also be far more complicated and difficult when it comes to maintenance. Hardware components including GPUs, hard drives, and motherboards can wear out and need to be replaced, and it's currently far easier to do that on Earth than in space.
While it's possible that SpaceX will be able to leverage robotics technologies to make completing those kinds of tasks far more feasible, there are still a lot of operational obstacles involved in building and maintaining a thriving orbital data center at scale. They are a promising concept and could turn SpaceX into a huge winner in the AI infrastructure space, but investors should understand that the category is still speculative and could take a long time to come to fruition.
Since Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), aka SpaceX, conducted its initial public offering (IPO) early last month, shareholders have been on a nonstop thrill ride. The rocket launch, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company opened above its offering price, surging 19% on its first day of trading. SpaceX stock gained as much as 50% before falling back to Earth and now trades below its first day closing price of about $161.
History shows that the stock's erratic price movements will likely continue. Next week, that volatility could reach new heights as SpaceX faces its biggest hurdle yet.
Image source: Getty Images.
A busy daySome of Wall Street's biggest analysts have yet to issue a rating on SpaceX, and with good reason. Investment banks that were part of the IPO underwriting process are bound by a "quiet period," in which they refrain from publishing any research, commentary, ratings, or price targets on companies they have underwritten.
SpaceX was an historic IPO in many ways. One of which was that it attracted a syndicate of 23 underwriters for its record-breaking $85.7 billion listing. As a result, many of the investment banks that would have chimed in by now with their opinions have been silent due to the aforementioned quiet period. However, that silence will no doubt be broken on Tuesday, July 7, when the quiet period officially ends, freeing analysts to release their estimates on SpaceX stock.
That's not to say there haven't been any opinions issued. The most bullish comes courtesy of Arete Research analyst Andrew Beale, who issued a buy rating and a Street-high price target of $401, suggesting potential upside for investors of 154% compared to Wednesday's close. The analyst argues that investors don't yet fully appreciate the magnitude of the opportunity represented by the upcoming Starship rocket and StarlinkV3, the company's next-generation satellite. This one-two punch could open the door for SpaceX to compete for suburban broadband -- but neither the rocket nor the next-gen satellite is yet airborne.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, who issued a sell rating on SpaceX with a price target of $62, suggesting potential downside of 61% compared to Wednesday's closing price. The analyst argues that much of SpaceX's future growth will likely depend heavily on the company's reusable Starship rockets and its ability to effectively execute and commercialize its plan for orbital data centers -- of which there are simply no guarantees.
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Thus far, 13 analysts in all have issued opinions on SpaceX stock, according to The Wall Street Journal: Seven of those, or 63%, have a buy or strong buy rating; four analysts rate the stock a hold; and two have sell ratings. The average analyst price target is roughly $229, suggesting potential upside of 45%. So while Wall Street is largely positive about SpaceX's future, investors can expect an avalanche of new coverage when the quiet period ends on Tuesday.
Some investors might be tempted to buy SpaceX ahead of its big reveal. Others might be tempted to sell. I generally stay away from date- and event-driven buying and selling, as that type of short-term thinking is detrimental to maintaining a long-term outlook.
There's no way to know for sure how one analyst -- let alone 23 analysts -- will interpret the same information. As shown in the examples above, two of Wall Street's finest -- with access to the same data -- came to very different conclusions about what the future holds for SpaceX.
I'm watching the stock closely, but I haven't yet put down any of my hard-earned money to buy shares. In my opinion, it's still too early to do so with any degree of certainty. I plan to wait until after SpaceX's first (or even second) financial report before I feel I'll have enough information to make an informed decision. Given what we know and what we don't know, I don’t think SpaceX is a buy -- at least not yet.
As I've pointed out before, at roughly 46 times forward sales, SpaceX is pricey, particularly for a company with a limited public track record. To be clear, next week will be a busy one for the company. Not only is the quiet period over, but SpaceX stock is being added to the Nasdaq-100 and the associated index funds on Tuesday.
When you don’t know what to do, sometimes the best thing to do -- is nothing. That’s exactly what I plan to do.
Following its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) immediately became one of the world's largest publicly traded companies. The space tech and artificial intelligence (AI) company went public at a valuation of $1.77 trillion and has since seen its valuation march even higher, with its market capitalization sitting at $2.1 trillion as of this writing. Now, SpaceX is coming up on another milestone.
After the market closes on July 6, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index -- an index that includes the 100 largest, non-financial companies that trade on the Nasdaq stock exchange. As a result, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the Nasdaq-100 will be buying the stock so that their portfolios accurately reflect the index. In turn, the buying action could be a catalyst that works to send the company's share price higher. Does that mean SpaceX stock is a buy before July 7?
Image source: Getty Images.
Is SpaceX stock a hot buy ahead of its Nasdaq-100 inclusion? While SpaceX has seen some substantial swings since its IPO, it's also shown meaningful pricing support near the $160.95 per share level it closed at on the day of its public debut. As of this writing, the company's share price is just below that level and 17% from its $135 per share listing price.
With inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on the horizon and the promise of SpaceX being added to other major indexes in the not-too-distant future, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock gain ground between now and July 7. On the other hand, I also don't think that investors should rush to buy shares ahead of next week's big index inclusion milestone.
For starters, SpaceX stock does not trade in a vacuum -- and macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics will continue to have a significant impact on how its stock trades in the near term and the long term. I also think that the stock trades at hugely growth-dependent valuation levels that look difficult to justify right now.
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SpaceX recorded a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year on sales of approximately $18.7 billion. While it appears very likely that the business will see sales growth that exceeds last year's annual expansion of 33%, there's a good chance that heavy spending on the company's AI segment will also result in this year's annual loss coming in far above last year's level.
SpaceX is roughly three weeks removed from its IPO, and there's a risk that hype connected to its public debut and investors hoping to score gains with short-term trades are still propping up its valuation. There may also be a bigger "cash out" risk looming through the remainder of the year.
While SpaceX insiders are currently prohibited from selling their shares due to the post-IPO lockup period, roughly $800 billion in shares will become eligible for sale by October. Given that many inside shareholders have already seen massive gains on stock issued throughout SpaceX's time as a privately held company, there's a good chance that there will be a lot of selling action later in the year. With that in mind, I think investors will likely have the opportunity to purchase shares well below their current valuation levels by the end of the year.
CNBC’s Oliver Renick spent part of his July 2 segment on a tension defining SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) trading. A Daiwa Securities analyst opened Thursday labeling the stock’s valuation “catastrophic”. Options desks spent the same morning buying calls.
Shares are up roughly 9% off recent lows after a three-day bounce, closing at $157.54 on July 1 and trading around $157 as of this writing, down some 0.3%. The company joins the NASDAQ 100 on Tuesday (July 7), which makes this worth stopping on.
The bull-bear disconnect “Options flows continue to look bullish. That’s despite an analyst from daiwa securities this morning calling the stock’s valuation quote catastrophic.”
The valuation critique is not fringe. Jim Cramer, on his May 26 show, said “it’s very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation. But the bottom line is that people have been willing to pay up in the private markets, and I bet they’ll pay up in the public ones.” The public market has not obliged, with a current market cap around $2.07 trillion. That is far from the $350 billion employee tender at the end of 2024 and worth remembering when someone uses the word catastrophic.
Retail sentiment on Reddit tells the same split story. Monthly r/stocks and r/investing discussion has skewed bearish, with posts like “The math isn’t mathing on the SpaceX IPO” drawing thousands of upvotes. Meanwhile r/wallstreetbets runs a different playbook, headlined by “SPACEX Calls Are Now Dirt Cheap.”
What the call buying is really saying Renick pointed to the specific strikes. “What we saw earlier in the week was some pretty big call buying in the 160 and the 170 strikes. Those right now are pretty close to the money.”
Near-the-money calls are the least speculative way to bet on movement. Traders buying way out-of-the-money strikes are lottery-ticket shoppers. Traders paying up for 160s and 170s while the stock sits near 158 want direct exposure to the next move. Prediction markets echo that. On Polymarket, the probability SPCX finishes the week above $150 sits at 0.89, with the most likely weekly close pegged at $155 (0.54 probability). Above $165 collapses to 0.105. Traders are betting on a floor.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Call buying at these strikes communicates upside conviction, capped.
Why this is a volatility story, not a guaranteed pop Index inclusion sounds like free money, and Renick addressed the temptation head on. “The inclusion will mean for the stock price due to so-called forced buyers, but the much clearer implication is that it’s going to raise the volatility for index fund holders.”
Every fund tracking the NASDAQ 100 via Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and its peers must buy SpaceX shares to match the index. That is the mechanical part. What it imports is a stock trading with volatility at 88 into an index whose own volatility sits near 27. For reference, S&P volatility is below 16, and even semiconductor volatility is at 60. The VIX itself closed at 16.45 on June 30, well within normal.
Renick landed the punchline. “Space right now is going to add to the growing gap between NASDAQ 100 and S&P volatility, which is a spread that’s at unprecedented highs.”
QQQ holders, many of whom have never made an active decision about SpaceX, are about to own a stock whose daily swings dwarf anything else in their portfolio. QQQ is up 15.9% year to date and 29% over the past year. Adding SpaceX changes the size of the daily move for QQQ holders.
The takeaway for a regular investor is not whether the Daiwa analyst is right or the call buyers are right. Both can be. The valuation is stretched by any private-market comparison, and the near-term flow is genuinely bullish. What changes on Tuesday is that a passive NASDAQ 100 position becomes an active volatility position, whether you asked for it or not. Look at your QQQ exposure with that in mind.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
@nasdaq's Kevin Davitt talks about SpaceX (SPCX) being added to the Nasdaq-100 and what it signals for index flows. He says that past additions have caused brief volatility spikes followed by a quick return to normal as the markets adjust.
Investors are probably still trying to figure out what to make of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX, stock. It reached a high of $225.64 per share less than a week after its June 12 debut at $150 per share. However, a recent pullback has taken it to around $161 per share as of this writing, and it is unclear where it will go in the near term.
When looking ahead one year, we can assume that SpaceX will probably no longer benefit from post-IPO hype. Still, given the state of the company, the stock is more likely to struggle than prosper. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The current state of SpaceX Investors have taken to SpaceX because it incorporates many of Elon Musk's most successful companies, none of which are named Tesla. By buying this industrials stock that some might better classify as a communications stock, one invests in a space division that now dominates rocket launches, a connectivity business that includes satellite internet provider Starlink, and Musk's AI company, Grok.
SpaceX is also on track for accelerated growth. In the first quarter of 2026, it earned $4.7 billion in revenue, a 16% yearly increase, though that comparatively modest increase is likely an anomaly. Revenue was $18.7 billion in 2025, growing by 34% annually.
Analysts forecast 85% revenue growth in 2027, and even though it reported losses in its publicly available financial statements, they forecast a turn to profitability in 2027. Such factors will likely continue to support a premium valuation.
Still, since it appears overvalued right now, the question is how much of a premium investors will support. It is difficult to ignore that SpaceX stock trades at a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 106. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 15 times sales, and Micron Technology, whose revenue growth is well into the triple digits, currently trades at a 12 P/S ratio. Even Palantir Technologies, which has commanded an eye-popping premium since late 2024, trades at a 67 sales multiple.
Considering SpaceX's valuation, anything can happen over the next year. However, given the size of SpaceX's premium, the sales multiple is more likely to fall than rise over the next 12 months, which does not bode well for SpaceX stock during that time.
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Although anything can happen with SpaceX stock over the next 12 months, investors should probably expect a pullback.
Admittedly, the 85% revenue growth forecast makes SpaceX stock likely to maintain a premium price. That growth will also reduce the P/S ratio if the stock price stays the same, potentially easing valuation concerns and easing longer-term performance worries.
Unfortunately, triple-digit P/S ratios are extremely rare and price a stock for perfection, meaning any bad news will likely pressure the stock price. Thus, investors may need to exercise patience amid the likely struggles the stock faces over the next year.
The initial public offering (IPO) market in 2026 is testing how much new equity supply investors can absorb without selling the stocks that already drove the market higher. Renaissance Capital data shows that 79 U.S. IPOs have already raised $112.5 billion so far in 2026, up 625% year over year.
Image source: Getty Images.
JPMorgan Chase expects more than $260 billion of equity issuance to enter the market in 2026. With multiple IPOs, such as Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.71%), OpenAI, and Anthropic, in focus, the key question is where investment capital will come from.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could test market absorption SpaceX has already shown how much demand there can be for a mega-IPO. The company initially raised $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, and total proceeds later rose to $85.7 billion after underwriters bought additional shares.
OpenAI could create the next big demand for investor cash. Reuters has reported that the company could seek a valuation of up to $1 trillion, although its IPO may not arrive until 2027. A 2026 listing would add pressure to a market already absorbing the impact of the SpaceX IPO, while a delay to 2027 would spread that pressure over a longer period. Reuters also reported that Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO after a funding round valued it at $965 billion.
While the $200 billion risk is not a confirmed total from the three companies, it is a plausible scenario based on SpaceX's completed IPO, OpenAI's reported IPO ambitions, and the possibility of another large Anthropic offering. If OpenAI and Anthropic both list near trillion-dollar valuations, these IPOs may compete with existing AI winners for the same investor dollars.
Why the IPO wave could impact the entire equity market In their research paper, "In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis," Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen estimate that every $1 invested in stocks can add about $5 to total market value. That is because stock prices can move much more than the actual dollars entering or leaving the market. So, if investors sell stocks to fund new IPOs, the market impact could be several times larger than the cash raised. Hence, using a five-times multiplier, a $200 billion IPO wave could put roughly $1 trillion of market value at risk.
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However, that does not mean a crash is inevitable. It means a very large IPO wave can create pressure far beyond the cash raised if buyers fund allocations by selling existing stocks. The risk is greater because the current market is already tied closely tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.50%) earnings per share to rise 24% year over year to $340 in 2026, with AI infrastructure beneficiaries contributing roughly half of that growth.
But there is also a reason the market may be able to handle these IPOs. J.P. Morgan estimates that 2026 buybacks could reach about $1.5 trillion, returning cash to shareholders that could help fund some new IPO demand. The research firm also argues that, since the current market is much larger than in past IPO cycles, investors may have greater capacity to absorb new listings. Still, investors should watch the timing, valuation, float, and first trading response of IPOs to decide whether there is fresh AI demand or a shortage of fresh capital.
JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX's capital expenditures were $20 billion in 2025 and are on track to far outpace that amount this year. The company's shares are very expensive and highly volatile right now.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), known as SpaceX, trade at a steep premium, and that valuation is built on more than the company launching rockets. A big part of the bull case is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, which reached 10.3 million subscribers in the first quarter.
Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year. That growth matters because Starlink is the company's most profitable business right now. Those profits can help fund SpaceX's broader ambitions in space and artificial intelligence (AI), which together represent enormous growth potential for the company.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is starving for capital SpaceX may be best known as Elon Musk's rocket company, but the financial picture looks more like a vertically integrated technology infrastructure business with three operating segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI.
In 2025, the company generated $18.6 billion in total revenue and incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion across all segments. Starlink was the only profitable business. The Connectivity segment delivered more than $11 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, providing SpaceX with a meaningful pool of internally generated capital.
SpaceX is directing most of its capital spending toward the AI segment, which may signal where management sees the greatest upside over the next few years. Of the $20.7 billion in capital expenditures last year, $12.7 billion went to the AI segment, which includes xAI (Grok).
The IPO raised $86 billion in new capital, boosting its cash and equivalents to $100 billion as of June 19. It didn't waste time in deploying this fresh capital, recently acquiring Anysphere and its leading enterprise AI coding platform, Cursor. The company is trying to accelerate AI capabilities, even if that means aggressive capital deployment.
That's why Starlink's profitability is strategically valuable, and it's expected to grow quite quickly over the next few years. Goldman Sachs estimates Starlink revenue could reach $144 billion by 2030. If segment margins hold, that would put the connectivity segment's operating profit at over $50 billion -- cash that could materially support SpaceX's plans in space and AI.
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Starlink is one piece of a bigger empire The long-term value of owning AI models, data centers, communication satellites, and reusable rocket technology under one roof is hard to quantify, since space remains a largely unexplored frontier.
However, SpaceX pegs the combined addressable market across space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure at $28.5 trillion. That helps put the stock's $2 trillion market cap in perspective, but it's still very expensive, trading at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue. To justify that valuation, revenue needs to grow rapidly.
Starlink subscriber growth will be crucial, but investors should watch the AI segment, since that's where the company is investing the most capital. SpaceX recently struck a cloud services deal to lease xAI's data center capacity to Anthropic, in which it will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. More deals like this could open another large and growing revenue stream and potentially justify the stock's valuation.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) recently went public, and the stock, which also goes by just SpaceX, will soon be added to many index funds. That may not sit well with risk-averse investors who don't want exposure to the extremely expensive stock, which trades at more than 100 times its revenue and which is already among the most valuable companies in the world, despite incurring massive losses.
There's ample incentive to avoid exposure to SpaceX, as the stock may not only prove volatile but also carry significant downside risk given its extremely high valuation. For investors who want to steer clear of SpaceX, funds that track the S&P 500 may be the way to go right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX isn't getting added to the S&P 500 anytime soon The Nasdaq loosened rules for adding stocks to the Nasdaq-100 index, and SpaceX is set to be included in there as early as next week. But the S&P 500 isn't bending its rules for SpaceX. Not only will it have to wait at least a year, but it will also need to be profitable -- which is likely to be a considerable barrier for the space company, which incurred $4.3 billion in losses during just the first three months of the year.
Meanwhile, as the company ramps up spending to pursue growth opportunities in space and artificial intelligence, its losses may become much larger in the future. It makes it incredibly unlikely that SpaceX will meet the criteria to be included in the S&P 500, a collection of leading U.S. stocks, anytime soon, regardless of how high its valuation may get.
S&P 500 index funds remain attractive options for long-term investing The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.34%) is a popular, low-cost option for tracking the S&P 500, with a gross expense ratio of only 0.0945%. It offers investors a simple, no-nonsense way to gain exposure to a wide range of stocks through a single investment. And with the index averaging gains of around 10% per year for decades, it makes for a suitable long-term investment to buy and forget about.
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There are also many other funds that track the index and focus on different aspects of it. But by focusing strictly on S&P 500 stocks and funds that track the index, you can ensure you have exposure only to those stocks. And until SpaceX attains consistent profitability, it won't be part of that illustrious group.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are trading marginally higher Thursday morning, performing in-line with the broader Industrials sector, which has climbed over 0.7%.
While company-specific news is light for the session, sentiment is potentially being anchored by SpaceX’s decision to extend Starlink connectivity support in Venezuela following recent major earthquakes.
Additionally, the stock continues to ride an index-inclusion tailwind. SpaceX is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100 before the opening bell on July 7, an institutional shift expected to trigger substantial passive buying from index-tracking funds as they rebalance their portfolios.
SpaceX stock is trading at depressed levels. What should traders watch with SPCX? What’s Happening With SpaceX Stock This Week?Starlink says it will provide free internet service through July 25 for new and existing customers in parts of Venezuela hit by twin earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5, after power and telecom damage drove a sharp connectivity drop on Wednesday.
The company also said it’s working to rapidly deploy Starlink terminals to the hardest-hit areas, while offering account credits, reactivation credits for previously canceled users, and free replacement kits for damaged equipment.
SpaceX has also been in executive-level discussions with Charter Communications about a consumer mobile phone partnership, a potential distribution catalyst for Starlink Mobile’s $10-per-month add-on through T-Mobile.
The talks would have Charter route some mobile traffic over its ground-based network, similar to Spectrum Mobile infrastructure rental agreements with T-Mobile and Verizon.
SPCX Stock: Critical Levels To WatchFrom a longer-term trend view, the stock is still in a powerful uptrend (up 535.01% over the past 12 months), and it remains well above its major moving averages—about 27.9% above the 20-day SMA and more than 376% above the 200-day SMA. That kind of separation usually signals strong trend control, but it can also mean the chart is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if momentum fades.
Momentum looks more "reset" than "extended" right now, with RSI at 49.35 (neutral), which suggests the stock isn’t currently stretched to the upside or downside. In plain terms, RSI helps gauge whether buying or selling pressure has become overheated; here, it reads like consolidation after a big run rather than a fresh breakout.
The moving-average structure is still constructive: the 20-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA, and the golden cross (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) that occurred in June continues to reinforce the longer-term bullish regime. With the 52-week high also set in June and the recent swing low in March, traders will often watch whether the stock can build a higher low above that March area to keep the trend intact.
Key Support: $147.00 — a nearby level where buyers previously stepped in, sitting right on top of the 52-week low zone ($147.11) What Is Space Exploration Technologies?Founded in 2002 and commonly known as SpaceX, the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures and operates a family of reusable rockets to launch various payloads into Earth orbit for government and commercial customers. Starting in 2019, the company began launching a constellation of its own communication satellites to provide mobile broadband and wireless services under the Starlink brand.
In early 2026, the company acquired xAI from its founder, Elon Musk, which operates a large language artificial intelligence model named Grok, a gigawatt-scale data center called Colossus, and the social media network X.
In the context of today’s news, Starlink’s disaster-response playbook (free service windows, rapid terminal deployment, and equipment replacement) is also a real-world stress test of the network’s resilience—and a reminder that connectivity can be a mission-critical product, not just a consumer convenience.
SPCX Stock Price Activity on ThursdaySPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX shares were up 0.70% at $158.65 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Short sellers piled into SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) faster than almost any newly public stock in recent memory, and the position is now enormous enough to matter to every long-term holder watching this thing settle. Roughly 31% of the free float, about 196 million shares, is sold short as of Tuesday, according to Ortex data reported by Reuters. That is the anchor number, and the arithmetic that flows from it is what makes the next few weeks interesting.
The 196 million share bet against SpaceX A week earlier, the short position looked ordinary for a hot IPO. Short interest sat at roughly 83 million shares, or about 13% of the free float, before more than doubling in a matter of days. Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg called the buildup “extraordinary for a stock that has been public less than a month.” Extraordinary is the right word for it. Most stocks take years to attract that kind of bearish crowd. SpaceX did it in about three weeks after its June 12, 2026 Nasdaq debut.
Why so much conviction on the short side? The pitch writes itself. A $1.2 trillion market cap for a company that still books most of its revenue from launches and Starlink subscriptions is a tall order to grow into, and the post-IPO stock action gave bears an opening. Shares slipped as much as 23% in the days after the debut, and when the stock bottomed near $153 last week, shorts were up roughly $2.5 billion on paper.
Why the squeeze math is wild Then came the rebound, and the paper gains vanished. Ortex now pegs the mark-to-market loss for shorts at about $760 million since the IPO. The mechanical part is what should get a long-term holder’s attention. Every $1 swing in SpaceX’s share price translates into roughly $200 million in gains or losses for the short book, per Ortex’s estimate. Think of it as a very large lever with a very short handle. Small moves in the stock produce very not-small moves in the P&L of the people betting against it.
The kicker is how cheap the trade still is to hold. The cost to borrow shares remains around 1%, which is unusually low for a stock this crowded on the short side. Cheap borrow means bears are not being financially bullied out of the position by carrying costs, so they can sit. But sitting only works if the stock cooperates. If it keeps grinding higher, the size of the short interest becomes its own accelerant. Hillerberg put it plainly. “(It’s) a lot of potential fuel if it tips into a squeeze.”
How the stock has traded The stock has been a two-way fight. SPCX went public at $160.95 on June 12, 2026, and closed June 30 at $170.86, a 6.16% gain over its short trading history. The one-week move into June 30 was +9.45%, from $156.11 to $170.86. Today, July 1, the stock is down to $157 from that $170.86 close. That is the whipsaw shorts are living inside. Prediction markets are reading it in real time too. Polymarket assigned a 95% probability to SPCX finishing July 1 down, and a 75% probability the stock closes above $150 for the week of June 29.
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The bull argument does not require you to fall in love with the valuation. It only requires you to respect the mechanics.
With 31% of the free float short and borrow essentially free, any sustained bid forces bears to buy back stock they do not own, which pushes the price further, which forces more covering. That is the loop.
Elon Musk has a documented history of public feuds with short sellers, which adds a wildcard the bearish spreadsheet cannot model. And the operating story is not a stub. Starlink now runs roughly 9,600 satellites and serves customers across 164 countries as of March 31, 2026, while Falcon rockets have flown at over a 99% mission success rate. None of that guarantees a squeeze. It does guarantee that if one starts, there is a real business underneath the fireworks.
What long-term holders should take from the setup For a retirement-focused holder, the takeaway is to understand that at 31% short interest and $200 million of P&L per dollar of price movement, the near-term volatility in SPCX is mechanically manufactured by the short book. The composite sentiment score sits at 60.49, bullish with medium confidence.
The next real catalyst is the lockup, which Jim Cramer flagged as a meaningful trading variable when the IPO priced. Cramer noted Musk’s “ironclad” grip on SpaceX through his 94% ownership of Class B shares carrying 10 votes each. Until then, the bears own the risk of being right about valuation and wrong about timing. That is a bad combination when the fuel gauge reads full.
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SpaceX (SPCX) just pulled off the biggest stock market debut in history. On June 12, 2026, the rocket and satellite company priced its IPO at $135 a share, opened at $150, and closed its first day up nearly 19%. If you’ve been searching for SpaceX stock, watching the SpaceX IPO stock price move, or simply asking whether SpaceX stock is a good buy right now, you’re far from alone – demand for this listing broke records across nearly every major brokerage.
This piece breaks down what SpaceX actually does, why Starlink matters more than people realize, what happened on IPO day, and what you should weigh before deciding if SPCX belongs in your portfolio.
What SpaceX Actually IsFounded by Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX built its name on reusable rockets – a breakthrough that crushed the old cost structure of getting anything into orbit. By the time it went public, the company had completed roughly 650 orbital launches with a success rate of over 99%, the vast majority of which were on reused boosters.
However, SpaceX will no longer be just a rocket company. Earlier this year, it absorbed xAI into the business, folding Musk’s AI venture (and, by extension, X/Twitter) directly into SpaceX’s structure. The pitch to investors now is bigger than space travel: SpaceX wants to put AI data centers in orbit, starting as early as 2028, using its satellite and launch infrastructure as the backbone.
Starlink Is Quietly Running the ShowWhat’s actually paying the bills is Starlink, not rockets,
Starlink went from a 10,000-user beta in 2021 to over 10 million paying subscribers by early 2026, spread across 160+ countries. Revenue followed the same curve – $11.4 billion in 2025, up 48% year-over-year, accounting for 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue. By Q1 2026, that share climbed to 69%.
More importantly, Starlink is the only part of SpaceX that’s actually profitable. It pulled in $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 while the rocket business lost money and the AI division ran a loss of $6 billion. Analysts now project Starlink revenue near $15.5 billion for 2026.
There’s a wrinkle worth knowing, though: average revenue per subscriber has been falling, down to roughly $81/month as SpaceX prioritized growing its global user base over squeezing more out of each customer. That trend reversed slightly in May 2026, when SpaceX raised Starlink prices by up to $10/month across the board.
Inside the SpaceX IPOThis wasn’t just a big IPO. It was the biggest ever recorded.
SpaceX initially sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion – instantly making it more valuable than Tesla. After underwriters exercised their full overallotment option, total gross proceeds climbed to roughly $85.7 billion, with the valuation settling around $2.3 trillion.
On day one, SPCX opened at $150, spiked as high as $176.52, and closed at $161.11 – a gain of 19% from the offer price. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire on paper that same day.
As of July 1, 2026, SPCX is trading at $170.86, with an intraday range of $161.64 to $172.40 and a 52-week high of $225.64. That shows how wide the swings have been.
One more catalyst on the horizon: SPCX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, 2026, which analysts estimate could trigger around $4.3 billion in passive inflows as index funds are required to buy the stock. That’s a meaningful near-term tailwind to be aware of.
What retail investors actually received at IPO, though, was a different story. Investors requesting 1,000 shares through Robinhood walked away with as few as 17. One investor who bumped their order to 4,250 shares through Schwab received just 147. Every major platform gave eligible applicants something, but allocations were thin across the board.
What Wall Street Is SayingWedbush initiated coverage on SPCX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, calling SpaceX a “major hyperscaler” and anchoring the bull case on its AI infrastructure ambitions.
The bear case is harder to ignore, though. SpaceX’s prospectus revealed a nearly $5 billion GAAP loss in 2025 and up to $119 billion in planned capital spending ahead. Musk himself has flagged the “genuine risk of bankruptcy” if Starship can’t hit a reliable launch cadence. That’s not typical IPO language – and it’s worth taking seriously.
How to Buy SpaceX Stock If you missed the IPO allocation window, buying SpaceX stock now is simple:
Bottom LineSpaceX delivered the largest IPO in history, and SPCX is trading at $158 levels as of today, and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion next week is adding a near-term catalyst. Starlink is the real engine behind the valuation: already profitable, still growing fast, and still the only segment consistently making money.
The risks are real, though. A near-$5 billion annual loss, a Starship program that hasn’t proven its reliability, and a $2+ trillion valuation that demands near-perfect execution – these aren’t footnotes. They’re the actual story.
Whether SPCX belongs in your portfolio comes down to one honest question: how much execution risk are you willing to hold for a piece of what might be the most consequential company of the next decade?
FAQsShould I buy SpaceX stock after the IPO?
Depends on your risk tolerance. Starlink’s growth is real and already profitable. The AI bet and Starship dependency aren’t proven yet. If you can stomach volatility, a position makes sense. If not, let the stock settle and revisit.
What happened with the SpaceX IPO?
SpaceX raised $75 billion at $135 a share, jumped over 19% on debut, and closed its first day above a $2 trillion market cap. Retail demand far exceeded supply at every major brokerage.
How does SpaceX make money?
Three ways: Starlink subscriptions (the only consistently profitable segment), rocket launch contracts, and AI revenue through xAI and Grok.
Is SPCX overvalued?
At $2.3 trillion against a near-$5 billion annual loss, the valuation is aggressive. But Starlink’s profitability and growth trajectory give bulls a credible counterargument. So, no clean answer.
What is Starlink’s revenue?
$11.4 billion in 2025, projected to be near $15.5 billion in 2026.
What’s next for SPCX stock?
The Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 is the immediate catalyst – analysts expect roughly $4.3 billion in passive buying tied to index rebalancing. Beyond that, watch Starship’s launch cadence. That’s the variable everything else depends on.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) just conducted one of the largest IPOs in history. The company aimed to raise around $75 billion in new capital. Due to high demand, however, the company ended up raising a total of $85.7 billion once underwriter options were included.
Many investors were then surprised to see the company return to capital markets just weeks after the IPO, raising an additional $25 billion through a bond sale. According to CNBC, the sudden bond deal "highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations."
Let's break down exactly what that means.
Image source: Getty Images.
Here's why SpaceX raised another $25 billion in capital While many think of SpaceX as a space stock, the company is actually an artificial intelligence (AI) stock. More than 90% of the company's claimed total addressable market is exclusively related to AI opportunities.
Long-term, AI may not be a capital-intensive business. Once data centers are built and software is designed, deploying these services should be relatively low-cost, aside from the energy requirements. However, renewables like solar could further increase long-term service deployment costs.
Right now, however, most AI infrastructure businesses are extremely capital-intensive. Huge amounts of infrastructure need to be built, all using pricey third-party GPUs and strained energy supplies. These are the "intense financing needs" and "capital spending plans" the CNBC report is referring to.
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The CNBC report includes one other rationale for the bond sale: "future refinancing obligations." It's important to remember that SpaceX is not profitable. In 2025, the company lost around $4.9 billion.
If SpaceX wants to continue spending heavily to scale its AI business -- plus invest in other capital-intensive areas like rocket development and satellite launches -- the company may not be profitable for years to come. Therefore, SpaceX will need to continue to tap capital markets to stay financially afloat.
In short, SpaceX will need a lot of capital to survive and grow, now and in the future. Raising as much capital as possible while optimism is high seems like a smart strategic decision.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
