Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -6.70%) has officially announced Aug. 4 as the date of its highly anticipated earnings release for the quarter ended June 30. The earnings release and earnings call with Wall Street analysts will provide an updated look at where SpaceX is and where the company could be headed.

Here's why investors should also pay close attention to Aug. 6, and what the date could mean for SpaceX stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

Public markets have only gotten a taste of SpaceX SpaceX went public on June 12, raising $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at $135 per share and then another $10.7 billion from underwriters exercising options to buy additional shares. But with SpaceX's market cap at $1.58 trillion at the time of this writing, that leaves the vast majority of shares owned by insiders through restricted stock units and early release eligible shares.

That means that the supply of shares potentially hitting public markets will be far higher than the shares currently available, which will test SpaceX's already beaten-down stock price.

At $119.85 as of market close on July 20, SpaceX is down 47% from its intraday high and 11.2% from its initial public offering (IPO) price.

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Open the floodgates In SpaceX's May 20 Form S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX outlines its unusual schedule for unlocking restricted shares at a far faster rate than the typical 180-day period for IPOs. The first wave of early release eligible shares will be made available for sale "on or after the second full trading day on Nasdaq immediately following the public release of our quarterly financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026." With the earnings call confirmed for Aug. 4 after market close at 4:30 p.m. ET, that makes Aug. 6 the first time since SpaceX's IPO when holders of early-release-eligible shares may choose to sell a portion of those shares on the Nasdaq.

An additional 10% of early release eligible shares may be transferred if SpaceX is above $175.50 per share for five of the 10 trading days leading up to and including Aug. 4. However, that is highly unlikely to happen considering that count down began on July 21, and SpaceX remains down over 30% from that price it needs to average over the next couple of weeks to trigger the extra release of shares.

Another 7% of shares will be unlocked on each of the following dates -- Aug. 31, Sept. 10, Sept. 25, Oct. 10, and Oct. 25. Another 28% of shares will be released two days after the quarter ended Sept. 30 earnings, before all shares are unlocked on Dec. 9.

A critical moment for SpaceX stock SpaceX's earnings report, combined with more shares hitting public markets, will be the ultimate stress test for the growth stock. Especially if insiders decide to sell shares with SpaceX below its IPO price.

This is an incredibly exciting company for its technological prowess, lack of competition, and virtually infinite total addressable market. But I still think it's best if investors keep SpaceX on a watch list to see how the insider lock-up expiration unfolds, and for SpaceX to begin generating positive free cash flow so it doesn't have to continue relying on capital markets to raise money.

SpaceX (SPCX -6.70%) is once again looking to launch a test flight of its Starship megarocket. Investors should be paying very close attention, as the impact on SpaceX’s stock price should be meaningful.

After several aborted attempts, the company is looking to complete the rocket’s thirteenth test flight on July 23. As with most SpaceX launches, the attempt will be livestreamed via the company’s website.

“The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America,” SpaceX explains. “There have been several modifications to hardware and software to address issues seen on the previous flight.”

The impact of this test flight for SpaceX cannot be overstated. In many ways, SpaceX’s long-term growth plans hinge on the company’s ability to successfully commercialize its Starship rocket.

If you’re a current or potential SpaceX investor, there are two things you need to know.

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1. Starship is critical for SpaceX growth plansIn its IPO prospectus filed earlier this year, SpaceX was not shy about predicting its growth potential.

“We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” the company boasted. “We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion.”

Digging deeper, it may be surprising to learn that SpaceX attributes just $370 billion to what it calls “space-enabled solutions”. That bucket includes the total revenue potential of commercializing its Starship rockets.

With a market cap well above $2 trillion, successfully commercializing rockets may not seem critical to SpaceX’s long-term plan, given its relatively low growth potential. But investors must understand that the success of SpaceX’s Starship rocket will enable other growth opportunities that are much more lucrative long term. In other words, Starship’s value won’t be relegated to payload fees alone.

For example, SpaceX attributes $1.6 trillion of its total addressable market to its Starlink internet service. If successful, its Starship rocket would dramatically increase the number of satellites SpaceX can launch in any given year while also lowering the cost of getting them into space.

In other words, SpaceX’s Starship rocket will increase the odds that SpaceX will be able to realize as much of its claimed $1.6 trillion opportunity as possible.

Meanwhile, SpaceX attributes a massive $26.5 trillion of its total $28.5 trillion addressable market to a single opportunity: AI. While this bucket contains many smaller opportunities, one of SpaceX’s biggest growth catalysts should be the realization of orbital data centers.

Orbital data centers are exactly what they sound like: data centers that operate in space. In space, data centers can take better advantage of solar energy and low ambient temperatures, lowering ongoing operating costs.

There are many technical challenges to getting data centers to operate successfully in space. One of the biggest, however, is simply getting these systems into space economically. If successful, SpaceX’s Starship rocket would meaningfully improve the company’s chances of doing so.

Image Source: Getty Images

2. Competition for Starship is heating upSpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, which will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.

Government entities like China’s CNSA and India’s ISRO are pursuing their own rocket developments. Meanwhile, private companies, including Blue Origin, Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.91%), and Relativity Space are also aggressively pursuing the development of their own rocket systems.

SpaceX’s rocket program, however, is unique in terms of its vertical integration.

“SpaceX has also effectively achieved a high degree of vertical integration,” observes Government Technology, a public sector magazine. “It owns almost all parts of its supply chain, designing, building, and testing all its major hardware components in-house, with a minimal use of suppliers. That gives it not just control over its hardware but considerably lower costs, and the price tag is the top consideration for launch contracts.”

It’s hard to disagree about SpaceX’s success, both in terms of its launch achievements and its cost competitiveness. But it’s also clear that competition is heating up.

If SpaceX’s upcoming test flight is successful, that will help clear the path for the full commercialization of Starship. In this scenario, SpaceX will once again put itself ahead of the pack in terms of both technology and launch costs. Both of those factors will prove critical to the company’s ability to execute on its long-term growth potential.

SpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, a fact that will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.

When it comes to analyst price targets for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -5.30%), you're going to find a wide range. At the high end of the spectrum is Raymond James, which placed a whopping $800 target on the stock. Morningstar, meanwhile, has said the fair value for the stock is closer to $62.

In my opinion, the stock is much more likely to trade closer to Morningstar's fair valuation by year-end. This is largely based on the early valuation Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, traded at in the early years after its IPO.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Selling pressure likely to mount After a hot start, SpaceX's stock has been in free fall, trading below its $135 IPO price. This is before any of the numerous lock-up expirations set to hit later this year have even started. With a deluge of shares expected to exponentially increase the amount of SpaceX stock available on the open market, this is a headwind the stock will have to contend with for most of the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

Now, strong results and a reasonable valuation could certainly overcome a flood of new shares hitting the market, but SpaceX's valuation is still in the stars. Even after its pullback, the stock still has a market cap of around $1.7 trillion for a company that generated less than $19 billion in revenue in 2025.

And while analysts expect rapid revenue growth this year (Morgan Stanley, for example, projects it will hit $45 billion), that's still an extreme valuation for a company set to continue losing money and burning cash. In fact, Morgan Stanley, which is bullish on the stock, doesn't think it will turn free cash flow positive until 2035. That means the company is going to have to raise a lot of cash, through equity or debt offerings, to fund what is a high-capital-expenditure (capex) business.

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A lot of SpaceX's valuation is based on future promises and predictions from founder and CEO Elon Musk, and his faithful following should help cushion the stock's downside, despite his spotty record with on-time predictions. However, that is largely why I think the stock will go into the $60s, not below that level.

A 10 times price-to-sales (P/S) multiple on $45 billion in revenue gets you to a market cap of $450 billion, which is about a $34 to $35 stock price. However, a high capex business also probably shouldn't be trading at a multiple of sales to begin with, so I don't think that is the best way to value the stock anyway. Nonetheless, a P/S of between 15 times and 20 times, which is where Tesla traded at in its early years, gives you between a $50 to $70 stock price, which is where I think SpaceX can trade at year-end.

A 25-year dataset from First Trust Portfolios presents a sobering backdrop. The research tracks post-IPO performance from January 2001 through June 2026 and reveals a persistent pattern: most newly listed U.S. stocks underperform as time passes.

SPCX stock is treading water ahead of TSLA earnings. See the price action here.  IPO Hype Meets Historical RealityInitial enthusiasm often masks the harsh reality — within two years of listing, 59% of companies generated negative returns, with the median stock declining 10.51%. 

The trend did not stabilize in later years. After three years, the median loss widened to 14.07%, and by year four, it reached 17.13%. Losses among weaker performers were far more severe. The bottom quartile declined more than 61% after two years and over 73% after four years.

The pattern shows deterioration rather than recovery. Time, in most cases, increases the gap between IPO expectations and operational execution. Growth narratives face pressure from earnings realities, competition and capital intensity. 

SpaceX enters public markets with extraordinary visibility, but the same forces apply. High valuation multiples leave little room for operational missteps.

There is, however, an important counterbalance. While median outcomes remain negative, average returns across the dataset stayed positive: 28.89% after two years, 32.34% after three years, and 39.55% after four years. This divergence highlights a skewed distribution. A small group of outliers delivered exceptional gains, lifting the overall average despite widespread underperformance.

The SpaceX BetInvestors focusing on SpaceX are effectively making a probabilistic bet. The base rate suggests underperformance is more common than success. Yet the upside case rests on joining the narrow cohort of transformational winners. 

SpaceX has attributes that could support that thesis: dominant launch economics, expanding satellite revenue through Starlink and long-term optionality in deep space infrastructure.

Still, the burden of proof is elevated. Historical IPO data implies that narrative strength must convert into sustained financial performance within a relatively short window. Execution risk, regulatory complexity and capital demands remain central variables.

The post-IPO phase, therefore, becomes less about momentum and more about validation. SpaceX may redefine industries, but market history indicates that only a minority of companies translate early promise into enduring shareholder returns.

SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX shares were down 3.05% at $119.77 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is defending her fund's stake in SpaceX, declaring the aerospace and satellite network pioneer could become the "most important company in global history" despite the stock's recent slide and an upcoming $116 billion share unlock.

During an interview on "Mornings with Maria" Wednesday, Wood explained why she remains bullish on SpaceX after funds managed by ARK Invest allocated $80 million to the position following its public debut.

"[Down] from its peak, it is," Wood said, "but of course not from the IPO price. We think this could become the most important company in history, and I mean in global history."

FAMED PERMABEAR WARNS SPACEX I.P.O. COULD BE LAUGHED AT IN 50 YEARS, ‘CRAZIEST’ MARKET BET FOR WALL STREET

"We're talking about not only really exploring a new world — the universe — in terms of its launch capabilities and helping others to do so as well, but also a global communications network. Really, think telecom, that's been a very local business. In fact, the way to break into countries historically was to buy the [telecommunications companies], no longer."

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood doubled down on her bullish stance for SpaceX stock on FOX Business' "Mornings with Maria." (Getty Images)

Just before Wednesday's opening bell, SpaceX stock was trading around $123.50 per share. According to Barron's, the stock is down about 47% from its high of about $225, and has shed nearly $1.4 trillion in market value. This puts SpaceX in eighth place by market capitalization, behind Meta for the first time since its debut.

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Wood previously said in a May interview with Bloomberg that she imagines SpaceX will be "volatile," but applauded founder Elon Musk's "incredible" ability to vertically integrate all of his companies, including Tesla, xAI and Neuralink.

Musk warned investors against trying to short-sell the stock last week in a post on X, saying, "The survival probability of firms that maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low."

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Benzinga Pro estimates SpaceX will report a loss of 25 cents per share on quarterly revenue of $6.98 billion.

SpaceX’s Post-IPO VolatilityMacquarie’s Bullish Outlook on SpaceX Macquarie remains optimistic about SpaceX, reiterating an Outperform rating and setting a $250 price target. The firm views SpaceX as a premier AI infrastructure asset, emphasizing the potential upside from its AI compute ambitions and orbital AI data-center system. Image: Shutterstock

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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With the S&P 500 trading at a multi-year high of 29 times earnings, possible interest rate hikes on the horizon, and unresolved military conflicts driving oil prices higher, it seems like it's only a matter of time before the market crashes. When that happens, many of the priciest growth stocks will go on sale and become compelling purchases for patient investors.

One of those stocks is AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -0.22%), a producer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites that was overshadowed by SpaceX's (SPCX -0.34%) historic IPO. Let's see why AST SpaceMobile is one of the only space stocks I'd buy in the next market crash.

Image source: Getty Images.

What sets AST SpaceMobile apart from SpaceX? AST and SpaceX's Starlink both produce LEO satellites for internet communications. However, AST mainly helps telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon extend their broadband networks to rural areas that their terrestrial networks can't reach. Starlink provides its own first-party satellite internet service. AST's satellites are also twice the size of Starlink's largest satellites, making them the largest communication arrays ever deployed into orbit.

AST also processes its data on the ground using Radio Access Network (RAN) software, while Starlink processes it in its satellites. AST can upgrade its ground infrastructure to new wireless technologies (such as 6G), but Starlink must completely replace its satellites with each upgrade.

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AST also doesn't operate money-losing rocket launch and artificial intelligence (AI) businesses like SpaceX. While AST isn't profitable yet, it has a clear path to profitability because its core business operates similarly to Starlink, SpaceX's only profitable business.

AST has launched 10 commercial BlueBird satellites to date. It aims to have 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, and to expand its constellation to as many as 248 satellites within the next few years. However, that expansion will likely require more dilutive stock and debt offerings, as seen with its recent approval of a new $1 billion convertible stock offering.

Why could AST be a great long-term investment? From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect AST's revenue to grow from $71 million to $1.87 billion. They also expect its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2027 and more than quadruple to $1.39 billion in 2028.

But with an enterprise value of $20.7 billion, AST already trades at 12 times and 16 times its projected 2028 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, respectively. If a market crash cuts those valuations in half, it'd be an incredible buying opportunity for space-oriented investors.

Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Roughly six weeks ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +3.08%) cemented its name in Wall Street's record book. Its initial public offering (IPO) raised $85.7 billion, including the underwriters' overallotment option, and its market cap quickly vaulted to nearly $3 trillion in the days that followed.

Although Wall Street analysts have set some truly lofty price targets for SpaceX stock, the biggest bull in the room continues to be its CEO. On July 17, Musk responded to a commenter on social media platform X (a subsidiary of SpaceX) by stating: "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals."

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is known for making bold claims. Image source: Official White House Photo.

Musk has a habit of making otherworldly innovative promises -- but this is one target that the bond market simply doesn't agree with.

Bond traders are sending a clear message about SpaceX Before SpaceX went public, it released a lengthy registration statement (S-1) that contained its financials, risk factors, and forward-looking projections, among other details. The company's S-1 also noted that debt and equity offerings would be relied on to expand artificial intelligence (AI) start-up xAI's compute capacity.

SpaceX wasted little time raising additional capital after its IPO. On June 23, the company priced $25 billion in debt across five tranches, with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2056, and coupon rates of 5.35% to 6.65%.

I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals.

Obviously true.

-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026 Bonds are typically issued at or around par value ($1.00) and can trade above or below par, depending on the bond market's outlook for the company in question. Since SpaceX's bonds began trading a few weeks ago, they've been sinking like a cement block:

2031 bond: 99.92 cents (issued) / 98.35 cents (as of July 17) 2033 bond: 99.84 cents / 97.10 cents 2036 bond: 99.83 cents / 95.63 cents 2046 bond: 99.93 cents / 92.63 cents 2056 bond: 99.45 cents / 91.07 cents While this decline isn't as noticeable in the bond maturing five years from now, there's been a decisive drop in bond prices for the longer-dated maturities over the course of three weeks.

As a reminder, bond prices and yields are inversely related. As bond prices are dragged lower, yields are pushing higher. What this tells us is that bond traders still don't see an attractive risk-versus-reward scenario with some tranches of SpaceX's debt yielding north of 7%.

BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, shares are down -41.1% from their peak, erasing over $1 trillion of market value. pic.twitter.com/6jMI3VRY4Q

-- Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) July 17, 2026 More importantly, it indicates the bond market isn't convinced that Elon Musk's company can make good on its debt obligations. Despite SpaceX's mammoth capital raise, the company hasn't demonstrated it can generate recurring profits, and several of its operating segments are highly capital-intensive (xAI and its space infrastructure operations) and prone to production delays.

Based on what the bond market is telling us, not only will Musk's company not be worth more than Earth, but there aren't any solid guarantees it'll remain one of America's largest public companies.

Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.19%) became the largest initial public offering (IPO) in U.S. history as measured by market value. The rocket and satellite company was worth nearly $1.8 trillion at the listing price of $135 per share.

SpaceX peaked around $202 per share on its third trading day. However, the stock has since fallen 36% to $129 per share, and history says it has further to fall. Here's what investors should know.

Image source: Getty Images.

Highly anticipated IPO stocks frequently notch large gains on the first trading day. SpaceX was no exception; the stock closed just shy of $161 per share (about 19% above the IPO price) on day one. However, companies that go public with large market capitalizations have historically performed poorly over the long term.

Among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs in the last decade, the median stock fell 17% from its IPO price during its first year on the public market. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share. If its performance matches the historical median, the stock will trade at $112 per share by June 2027 (i.e., 17% below its IPO price). That implies 13% downside from the current share price of $129.

In that scenario, $10,000 invested in SpaceX today would be worth $8,820 by June 2027. But there is more bad news: History says SpaceX could decline even further in the interim.

Among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs in the last decade, the median stock dropped 25% from its IPO price at some point during the first year. If SpaceX follows that trajectory, the stock will fall to $101 per share at some point before June 2027. That implies 20% downside from its current price.

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SpaceX has compelling growth prospects, but the stock is very expensive SpaceX's reusable rocket architecture enables the company to launch payloads into orbit more frequently and cost-effectively than its competitors. That economic moat has not only helped SpaceX build the world's largest satellite internet service, Starlink, but also positioned the company to disrupt the artificial intelligence industry with orbital data centers.

SpaceX values its addressable market at $28.5 trillion, and the company attributes the vast majority of that figure ($26.5 trillion) to artificial intelligence products and services. Its SEC Form S-1 (registration statement) states:

We believe SpaceX's reusable rockets, scaled satellite manufacturing, and operational expertise can enable the cost-effective and rapid deployment of massive AI compute satellite constellations -- with potentially millions of satellites -- for orbital data centers. We believe these AI compute satellites in sun-synchronous orbit will be able to handle energy-intensive AI workloads, such as inference demand, at far greater scale and efficiency than terrestrial alternatives.

However, SpaceX will not launch orbital data centers until 2028 at the earliest. Meanwhile, the stock currently trades at 88 times sales. By comparison, Palantir Technologies is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.89%) at 62 times sales.

That means SpaceX is currently 40% more expensive than the most richly valued member of the benchmark index for the entire U.S. stock market. I doubt that premium is sustainable.

Here's the big picture: History suggests SpaceX stock is headed lower in the coming months. The current valuation hints at the same outcome. That does not mean SpaceX will always be a bad investment. But I think investors should wait patiently for a more attractive buying opportunity. Better entry points are sure to arise eventually.

Consider Uber Technologies. Since its IPO in May 2019, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 99 percentage points. But the stock has also outperformed the S&P 500 by 140 percentage points since July 2022.

The lesson is simple: Uber shareholders who didn't dive headlong into the IPO but waited for a more reasonable buying opportunity have been well rewarded. I believe the SpaceX story will be similar in hindsight.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.19%) has drawn a great amount of excitement in recent times. The company, better known as SpaceX, completed the world's biggest initial public offering last month -- and saw its stock soar 27% in the first days of trading.

In recent times, SpaceX stock has pulled back, even falling below its IPO price of $135. But even at this level, I think the stock is too expensive considering the risk involved -- that's why I'm still not buying. Let's check out the details.

Image source: Getty Images.

A smart mix of businesses It's true that SpaceX offers a smart mix of growth businesses -- rocket launches, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) -- and these businesses can work together to deliver efficiency. For example, SpaceX can use its rockets to deliver materials to space for the satellite-based internet service and the AI business. This offers SpaceX great autonomy and keeps costs down.

The company has also made progress on goals such as bringing down the costs of rocket launches, and last year it completed more orbital launches than any other player. The connectivity business has seen its subscribers quadruple over three years, and this growth is key since this unit drives revenue growth.

All of that is positive, and SpaceX, at $119 at the July 20 market close, is considerably lower than it was a few weeks ago. But I'm still not buying because the stock is expensive given the amount of risk involved. Prior to the IPO, Morningstar said its fair value for SpaceX was $63, which seems reasonable; today, the SpaceX price remains far from that level.

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Upcoming earnings reports I also think that before diving in, it's important to take a look at an earnings report or two to monitor the company's spending trends and the level of revenue that's being generated. So far, we may look at the financial picture over the past three years, as provided in the prospectus. But since SpaceX's capital expenditures are increasing, I'd like to see fresh earnings data.

This is particularly key for a company like SpaceX, which has many goals linked to technologies that are still in development. For example, as SpaceX increases capital spending, is its revenue climbing at a fast pace? Last year, capex of $20 billion exceeded revenue, which was $18 billion. I'd like to see revenue step ahead in the coming quarters.

At this point, SpaceX remains an interesting business that's made progress in key areas. The company could have a very bright future several years down the road, so I understand that some investors aim to get in early. But in my opinion, risk remains high, and visibility remains limited -- so even though SpaceX stock has declined, I'm still not buying.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban‘s stock options philosophy is shining a spotlight on a theme already familiar to ETF investors. Many of the market’s biggest wealth creators that are using the option of giving every employee an ownership stake, are also the largest holdings in technology-focused funds.

He also suggested governments could encourage the practice by offering lower corporate tax rates to companies that distribute equity more broadly. The remarks followed reports that former SpaceX welder Juan Hernandez, who joined the company in 2015 earning $28 an hour, became the owner of an estimated $880,000 worth of SpaceX shares after the company’s public debut.

SpaceX’s IPO Opens a New ETF OpportunityFor ETF investors, SpaceX’s historic listing represents more than just another high-profile IPO. The aerospace giant has become an investable asset through ETFs, allowing investors to gain exposure to one of the world’s most valuable companies without owning the stock directly.

Employee Ownership Is Already Embedded in Major ETF PortfoliosThe renewed focus on employee ownership also highlights a common thread among many of the companies that dominate the largest U.S. ETFs.

That overlap is notable because the businesses most associated with broad-based equity compensation have also delivered some of the strongest long-term returns in the public markets. While stock-based compensation can dilute existing shareholders if not managed carefully, proponents argue that giving employees a stake in the company’s success aligns incentives, strengthens retention, and encourages long-term value creation.

Academic research lends support to that view. In a report, Fortune cited a 2021 Harvard Business School study, which found that if all private U.S. companies became 30% employee-owned, household wealth would roughly double, while separate studies have linked employee ownership to higher productivity, lower employee turnover, and greater corporate resilience.

For ETF investors, the SpaceX IPO is a reminder that employee ownership is a recurring feature of many of the innovative, market-leading companies that dominate technology and growth-focused ETFs. As SpaceX joins the ranks of publicly traded mega-caps, investors now have another avenue to participate in a business whose success has already created wealth for both employees and shareholders alike.

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Marley Kayden discusses SpaceX's (SPCX) upcoming earnings announcement, the U.S. weighing new AI sanctions on China, and the Trump administration's evolving tariff strategy. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.

HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseEarnings OutlookEarnings OutlookPlus, investors just found out when insiders can start dumping their sharesJuly 21, 2026, 12:44 p.m. ET

SpaceX’s stock is climbing on Tuesday and is set to snap a bruising seven-session losing streak.

The stock shed 21% during that period, creating a juicy buying opportunity for investors, according to Macquarie analysts led by Paul Golding. They wrote in a Monday note to clients that SpaceX’s SPCX “story” is virtually unchanged even as its stock has taken a beating.

With Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company on August 4, over 1.37 billion shares of SpaceX stock are scheduled to unlock on August 6, 2026

Two days after the company’s earnings report, 20% of locked-up SpaceX stock, representing about 911.5 million shares, will enter the tradable float, according to the S-1 filing. An additional 10% tranche, which is around  455.8 million SpaceX shares, may also unlock on the same date only if the stock trades at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on and including the earnings release date,

As SPCX traded at about $128.97 on July 21, the upcoming August 6 unlock wave is valued at more than $175 billion at press time. A further 7%, amounting to 319 million SpaceX shares, valued at approximately $40.8 billion, is scheduled to unlock around August 21.

Later on September 10, the company will release 7%, or about 319 million shares, also valued at $40.8 billion at the time of reporting. Currently, 555 million shares, or about 5% of the 13 billion SpaceX shares, are available in the public float.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion SpaceX shares remain subject to a separate extended lock-up until June 2027, with no early release provisions.

What’s the impact of upcoming unlocks on SpaceX stock price? The upcoming SpaceX stock unlocks could increase selling pressure amid more than a 36% selloff since the all-time high (ATH).

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold However, SpaceX has received a bullish long-term projection from Wall Street analysts, as Finbold reported. Nonetheless, with the company’s quarterly earnings forecasts still unknown, SpaceX stock could face heightened volatility in the near term fueled by the upcoming share unlocks.

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Elon Musk warned that investors betting against SpaceX have little chance of survival — even as short sellers boosted their wagers against the company to about one-third of its publicly tradable shares ahead of several key catalysts.

About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 32% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in notional bearish bets, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That's up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just last week, and marks a dramatic increase from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, about a month ago.

"We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company's first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.

Musk responded to the growing short interest in a post on X, predicting investors betting against the company would ultimately lose.

"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote. "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true."

SpaceX one month

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The results will give investors their first detailed look at SpaceX's performance since its initial public offering and could provide a fresh test for both bulls and short sellers.

The growing bearish position comes as investors weigh SpaceX's long-term prospects against its valuation and the possibility of additional shares becoming available after lock-up restrictions expire. Bulls point to the company's leadership in launch services, Starlink's expansion, and its artificial intelligence ambitions, while skeptics have questioned how much future growth is already reflected in the stock.

SpaceX shares rose about 7% on Tuesday, on pace to snap a seven-session losing streak after analysts at Macquarie reiterated their outperform rating and urged investors to buy the recent weakness. The stock climbed to around $128, though it remains below its $135 IPO price following a sharp post-listing pullback.

Key Takeaways Middle East tensions lifted oil prices while AI-led tech weakness dragged broader markets lower. Oil and shipping ETFs DBO, USO and BWET surged on escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions.WEAT climbed on Black Sea and Australian supply concerns, while VXX rose as volatility spiked. Wall Street delivered a downbeat performance last week. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6%, the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite plunged about 2.9% and the Russell 2000 retreated 0.5% last week.

The renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the tech slump mainly led to the slump. Oil prices jumped last week, with the United States Oil Fund LP (USO - Free Report) gaining 10.7% due to the flare-up in tensions between the United States and Iran.

Hormuz Tensions DeepenPresident Trump announced last week that the United States would reimpose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The blockade began on July 14, 2026, with U.S. Central Command saying it would enforce restrictions on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas (read: Leveraged Oil ETFs Likely to Surge as Hormuz Tensions Deepen).

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined since then, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions prompt shipowners to avoid the key energy corridor. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded just 53 vessel transits in the week through July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week, as quoted on CNBC.

Moreover, the U.S. military said a service member was killed after an Iranian attack in northern Iraq on Saturday, a day after an attack on a base in Jordan killed two U.S. soldiers, as quoted on BBC.

Inside the Tech SelloffsInvestors are becoming increasingly cautious about the AI trade as concerns over the sustainability of corporate spending on AI weigh on sentiment. The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, has led the recent market weakness as rising concerns over AI-related capital expenditures and rich valuations dampen investor sentiment.

AI Inflation Fears IntensifyRising expectations that AI could fuel inflation are expected to keep investors on edge. Goldman Sachs cautions that the rapid adoption of AI is likely to fuel inflation globally as supply struggles to keep pace with soaring demand for critical AI components, including memory chips and semiconductors.  The United States is likely to be hit the hardest, as quoted on Business Insider.

SK Hynix’s Shares Flat SK Hynix's recent U.S. debut has sparked a wave of new leveraged ETFs likeDirexion Daily SK Hynix Bull 2X ETF (SKHL). However, SK Hynix Inc – ADR (SKHY - Free Report) shares remained flat (read: Tap SK Hynix's Memory Leadership With These New Leveraged ETFs).

SpaceX NosedivesShares of another recent IPO hot-star, SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) , also slumped 14% last week. On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second ‌abort before liftoff its 13th flight test from Texas, which wiped off about $100 billion from the company's market value, per Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

ETF Winners Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few winning ETFs of last week.

EnergyInvesco DB Oil Fund (DBO - Free Report) – Up 10.9%

United States Oil Fund LP (USO - Free Report) – Up 10.7%

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK - Free Report) – Up 7.8%

Oil prices rose last week as the war between the United States and Iran intensified, fueling concerns over disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced last week that the United States would reimpose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Shipping Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET - Free Report) – Up 11.9%

Due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping routes were disrupted, driving a sharp surge in freight rates. This has strengthened the investment case for BWET. Broader disruptions across global trade lanes have supported shipping stocks this year, with elevated shipping rates in recent months positioning the fund as a clear beneficiary.

Wheat Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT - Free Report) – Up 6.5%

Wheat prices hit a two-year high last week as traders locked in profits. The Russia-Ukraine conflict showed no signs of easing, with Russian forces resuming strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Black Sea coast in response to recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, per Trading Economics.

Plus, the USDA reported that U.S. wheat net export sales of 235,100 metric tons for the week ended July 9 were below market expectations. Meanwhile, supply concerns emerged in Australia – one of the world’s largest wheat exporters – due to hotter and drier conditions, Trading Economics noted.

Volatility iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX - Free Report) – Up 5.1%

AI jitters, oil risks and inflation fears caused massive volatility last week, causing stocks to slump. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which reflects market expectations of near-term volatility, jumped more than 12% last week, highlighting growing investor anxiety and expectations for heightened market volatility.

SpaceX SPCX shares jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing streak after Macquarie reiterated its bullish stance on the stock, saying the recent correction offers investors an attractive entry point into what it describes as a long-term infrastructure and artificial intelligence leader.

The rally lifted the stock to around $127, although it remains below its $135 initial public offering price after a gradual post-listing decline.

Macquarie said the recent weakness has created a disconnect between the company's market valuation and its long-term growth prospects, particularly in AI.

SpaceX shares have been under pressure since their record IPO on June 12 and remain more than 20% below their debut closing price despite Tuesday's rebound.

The stock also suffered a setback last week after the company's 13th Starship test flight was aborted less than a second before liftoff because several engines failed to ignite.

Macquarie analysts, led by Paul Golding, believe those near-term issues have not altered the company's long-term investment case.

Reaffirming an Outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $250, the brokerage said investors continue to underestimate SpaceX's artificial intelligence opportunity in addition to its core aerospace business.

"We see significant upside from AI optionality; achieving only a fraction of terminal compute ambitions could justify valuation above current levels," the analysts wrote.

According to Macquarie, the recent selloff presents a rare opportunity to buy what it describes as a category-defining infrastructure platform at a significant discount to its intrinsic value.

Attention is now turning to Aug. 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to report quarterly earnings for the first time as a publicly traded company.

The earnings release will also trigger the first phase of the company's staggered IPO lock-up expiration.

Unlike the standard six-month lock-up period used in most listings, SpaceX adopted a phased structure intended to reduce the risk of heavy insider selling.

Following the earnings release, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up holdings, representing as many as 911.5 million shares.

An additional 10% of locked-up shares could become eligible for sale if the stock trades at least 30% above its IPO price for five of the ten trading sessions leading up to the earnings report.

The approaching lock-up has become another focal point for investors after a sustained decline in the share price.

The recent weakness has also attracted bearish investors.

Short interest has climbed to roughly one-third of SpaceX's public float in recent weeks as traders positioned for further downside.

Because only a limited portion of shares is available for trading before the lock-up expires, increased short selling has amplified volatility.

Chief Executive Elon Musk dismissed those bearish bets in a post on X on Monday.

"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote.

While Macquarie believes the recent correction has created an attractive buying opportunity, not all analysts agree.

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson argued last week that the stock remains expensive despite the sharp decline.

"Don't even think about bottom-fishing this one, as it still trades at 92 times trailing revenues," Tilson wrote.

"That means it's still nearly 10 times overvalued, given that I think a generous multiple for the stock would be 10 times revenues."

The contrasting views highlight the debate surrounding SpaceX following its blockbuster IPO, with bulls focusing on its long-term AI and space ambitions while skeptics argue the valuation still leaves little room for execution missteps.

Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, has warned that the AI stocks bubble may be about to burst amid the ongoing selloff in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares.

Schiff believes Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not a bubble. However, he said that the AI stocks bubble has ‘likely already popped’, according to an X post on July 20, which Finbold analyzed on July 21.

“AI isn’t a bubble, but AI stocks are. The bubble has likely already popped,” Schiff noted.

Schiff highlighted that the ongoing SpaceX stock selloff could be a leading indicator of the ongoing AI stocks bubble burst. Furthermore, he argued that AI stocks in the United States are facing intense competition from low-cost Chinese AI models led by Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek Chat.

“SpaceX closed under $120, near the low of the day. That’s more than 11% below the IPO price. The chart is not looking good,” Schiff added in a follow-up post.

Which AI stocks are good to buy in 2026? While Schiff points to an AI stocks bubble burst, AI companies that are aligned with enterprise spending and mainstream adoption of technology are well positioned to benefit. For instance, despite Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) stock dropping more than 28% over the past 30 days, trading at $865.46 at press time, 30 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month target of about $1,569.29, thereby suggesting a potential 81.32% upside.

Additionally, although Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares have dropped 2.57% over the past 30 days, trading at about $203.28 at the time of publication, 37 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month target of $309.94, which signals a possible 52.47% upside.

Meanwhile, 17 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set a 12-month average price target for Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) at $2,041.88, despite the shares falling more than 39% over the past 30 days, to trade at about $1,390 at the time of reporting.

As such, Schiff’s forecast of the AI stocks bubble burst could be invalidated if Wall Street analysts’ targets are achieved over the next 12 months.

​

Featured image via Peter Schiff YouTube.

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If you own a Nasdaq-100 index fund in your 401(k), you probably bought SpaceX this month automatically. A rule change made the decision for you, and right now it is not looking like a good one.

On July 7, 2026, SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, just 15 trading days after its IPO, the fastest major index inclusion ever, made possible by a new Nasdaq fast-track rule. Normally a newly public company seasons far longer before it qualifies. This time the door opened almost immediately, and the timing matters for retirement savings far beyond Elon Musk’s rocket company.

Why Your 401(k) Had No Choice Index funds track an index mechanically. When the Nasdaq-100 adds a stock, funds tracking it, including Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQM), and related products, must buy that stock regardless of price or valuation. The rule required the purchase of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) regardless of any fund manager’s judgment on its merits.

The scale was enormous. JPMorgan estimated QQQ alone generated about $4.3 billion in buying demand, with total passive flows tied to Nasdaq-100-linked products reaching $22 billion to $27 billion. Most of it hit around the July 6 close and July 7 open, with SPCX trading in the $157 to $161 range. Millions of ordinary investors bought SpaceX at roughly $160 a share, all at once, without choosing it.

The Stock They Never Chose Is Falling SPCX has dropped hard since inclusion. As of the July 20 close, SPCX traded around $119.85, after falling 3.34% that day and about 14% over the past week. That is well below the roughly $160 entry price the index funds paid, below the company’s own IPO and debut prices, and, according to market reporting, roughly 40% beneath its all-time high near $225. It is a textbook sell-the-news slide following index inclusion.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Doing the Rough Math Apply even a mid-teens percentage decline from that roughly $160 entry to $22 billion to $27 billion in forced inflows, and unrealized losses across these index funds plausibly run past $1 billion. With SPCX now near $120, meaningfully below the entry, the billion-dollar estimate looks conservative. No single source has confirmed the exact number, but the direction and scale are hard to dispute.

Who Is Actually Holding This Fidelity and other major 401(k) providers offer Nasdaq-100 index funds as core retirement holdings. Millions of everyday savers now carry SpaceX exposure inside their retirement accounts without researching the company or deciding it belonged in their portfolio.

The Important Caveats Keep perspective. These are unrealized paper losses, and the position is a small slice of a broad index fund. SpaceX carries real long-term bull cases in Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure, alongside bearish concerns around valuation, a limited float, and ongoing losses. It is also telling that the S&P 500 has not added SpaceX, because the company does not yet meet the S&P’s profitability and float requirements. S&P 500 index fund holders were not forced into this position at all.

When an index changes its rules, your retirement account changes with it, automatically, whether the timing makes sense or not.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

SpaceX will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. That will unlock 20% of the stock held by early investors.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.34%) had a hugely successful IPO in June. The company's shares opened at $150, well above its $135 IPO price. The stock kept rising for a couple of weeks, reaching a high of about $225. Alas, since then, it's been a straight southbound trajectory for the space company, and as of writing, the stock has dropped 11% below its IPO price. Is SpaceX worth investing in at current levels?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A recent delay raises questions Many of SpaceX's grand ambitions rest on its ability to continue innovating within its space segment. The company is working on Starship, a rocket that could help it further cut space travel costs. Starship is fully reusable -- unlike its Falcon 9, which is only partly so -- and has a much larger payload capacity. Starship is still in testing, and on July 16, it was supposed to take off for its thirteenth flight test. Unfortunately, that didn't happen as the flight was aborted due to multiple engine failures.

Considering how central Starship is to SpaceX's future, some investors may see this setback as a red flag. But it isn't that big a deal. Delays of this kind are quite common in the industry, and, at any rate, the company plans to try again on July 23. The setback certainly doesn't help SpaceX's short-term performance, but for investors focused on the long game, it is nothing to be too concerned about.

Today's Change

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More serious problems There are other reasons to be skeptical of SpaceX's ability to perform well over the long run, especially for investors considering buying the stock at current levels. True, it is down significantly from its all-time highs, but it is still worth $1.6 trillion, even though it isn't consistently profitable yet. The company's losses could get even worse as it continues to invest small fortunes within its artificial intelligence (AI) segment, where it sees a massive $26.5 trillion opportunity.

During the first three months of the year, SpaceX spent $7.7 billion in capex for its AI business, representing an annual run rate of $30.8 billion. That's significantly higher than the $12.7 billion in capex it spent in this segment last year. The worst part is that SpaceX is likely still years away from tapping into many of the opportunities it thinks it can capitalize on in the AI industry. In the meantime, net losses could expand, and it could face significantly more competition within its two other business units, space and connectivity.

So, my view is that SpaceX's medium outlook isn't great, and the stock isn't a buy at current levels. SpaceX has significant potential and is worth keeping on investors' watchlists, but it's best to wait for a steeper decline before initiating a position.

Cory Johnson, chief market strategist at Epistrophy Capital Research, analyzes SpaceX's business model and revenue streams, examines the company's AI capabilities compared to its competition and previews the upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. Cory also takes a closer look at the impact Elon Musk has on his companies and what that means for the stock price.

SpaceX (SPCX) is experiencing a decline in stock value, even with the announcement of July 23 as the target date for the second attempt at Starship's thirteent

While the broader space economy experiences unprecedented structural growth and expanding total addressable markets, its largest publicly traded company faces a profound identity crisis following a $1 trillion valuation contraction.

SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX went public on June 12 at $135 per share. Just over a month later, shares slid below that initial offering price, closing Friday, July 17 at $123.99.

SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Monday, July, 20, 2026

Market participants fundamentally mispriced SpaceX by anchoring institutional valuation models to capital-intensive launch logistics rather than scalable artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure.

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Now, reported talks over a multi-billion-dollar Pentagon AI infrastructure contract could help determine whether the company can validate its premium valuation multiple or whether the reset continues.

Gravity Takes Hold of Launch LogisticsSpaceX Today

$121.90 -2.09 (-1.69%)

As of 02:55 PM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$120.10▼

$225.64Price Target$234.78

To understand the scale of the recent sell-off, investors can examine the mathematical friction between SpaceX's core business model and its stock price.

At its post-IPO peak, market capitalization metrics implied a valuation of nearly $2.95 trillion under high-end pricing dynamics. Today, that number sits at $1.62 trillion. Evaporating over $1 trillion in market value in a few short weeks forces a recalibration of how Wall Street models aerospace sector growth.

Much of this contraction stems from a fundamental mismatch in valuation multiples. SpaceX currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 83x. A price-to-sales ratio indicates how much the market is willing to pay for every dollar of top-line revenue a business generates. Multiples exceeding 80x are traditionally reserved for high-margin software businesses boasting gross margins of 70% to 80%. SpaceX’s launch business is exceptionally capital-intensive. Building, testing, and launching reusable rockets requires substantial upfront capital expenditures, which naturally compress profit margins.

Recent quarterly financial results highlight this friction. SpaceX reported a negative earnings per share of negative $1.27 against $4.69 billion in revenue. When legacy hardware execution stalls, seen recently with the highly publicized delays surrounding the Starship Flight 13 abort, algorithmic and institutional trading models aggressively de-risk. The sell-off suggests that physical rocket launches alone cannot sustain software-level premium multiples in the current macroeconomic environment.

Finding a Defense Cloud LifelineIf launch operations alone cannot support a $1.62 trillion valuation, SpaceX must make a structural pivot to high-margin revenue streams. Reported talks over a multibillion-dollar cloud-computing agreement with the Department of Defense offer a potential catalyst.

This proposed integration of sovereign AI computing capabilities positions SpaceX as a neocloud infrastructure provider. Sovereign AI refers to a nation producing artificial intelligence using its own localized infrastructure, data, and workforce, ensuring absolute national security. By expanding its existing aerospace, connectivity, and AI platform into defense computing, SpaceX could move further toward the high-margin profile Wall Street demands.

Looking at the broader market demonstrates the institutional appetite for this type of digital infrastructure. Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS recently secured a substantial compute deal, pushing its contracted backlog to roughly $50 billion. This demonstrates a highly profitable revenue floor available for functional AI data processing.

A formalized Pentagon contract could bridge the gap between hardware and software by providing the high-margin, recurring revenue stream SpaceX requires to justify the current premium valuation multiple. Without this transition, sustaining a price-to-sales multiple of more than 80x becomes very difficult.

Floating in Space: Short Sellers Face a Binary OrbitThis potential shift to a neocloud model creates an incredibly volatile dynamic for short sellers. Institutional funds have capitalized aggressively on post-IPO hardware execution failures, accumulating an estimated $8.7 billion in unrealized gains by betting heavily against SpaceX. Those short positions currently face severe asymmetric risk due to post-IPO float constraints.

Following the initial public offering, standard 180-day lock-up agreements restrict insiders and early investors from selling their shares until December. This creates a temporary limited-float environment, meaning fewer shares are actively available for open-market trading.

When the supply is restricted, borrowing costs can rise, increasing the expense of maintaining bearish positions. If a formal Department of Defense contract triggers a sudden upside re-rating, short sellers could be forced to buy back shares at a premium to cover their positions, potentially igniting a violent price reversal.

However, institutional skepticism remains entirely justified. Executing a highly complex military AI compute contract requires strong software and infrastructure execution, a competency SpaceX has yet to prove fully. The company recently stumbled with its internal AI initiatives, as its Grok platform failed to capture meaningful market share and ceded ground to legacy tech competitors.

Wall Street is currently weighing the mechanical threat of a catalyst-driven short squeeze against legitimate, fundamental concerns regarding internal software capabilities. Options chain data shows elevated implied volatility skew toward August, indicating market makers could be pricing in extreme directional moves as the market digests this binary execution risk.

Orbital Infrastructure Keeps Gaining AltitudeWhile SpaceX attempts to reconcile its valuation crisis, the broader commercial space sector continues to capture significant institutional liquidity. The space economy macro thesis remains heavily bullish, completely independent of single-stock volatility. International state-backed reusable rocket programs in China and Japan are accelerating, rapidly expanding the total addressable market for orbital infrastructure.

While the recent SpaceX drawdown temporarily rattled smaller peers like AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS, dragging its shares down 18% in sympathy, this event could actually point toward a healthy sector decoupling.

SpaceX Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$234.78
88.40% Upside

Moderate Buy
Based on 37 Analyst Ratings

Current Price$124.62High Forecast$800.00Average Forecast$234.78Low Forecast$115.00SpaceX Stock Forecast Details

Capital exiting the crowded IPO trade is systematically rotating into secondary satellite architecture and orbital infrastructure equities, establishing more sustainable valuation floors across the broader commercial space economy.

The long-term demand drivers for sovereign space defense and commercial satellite broadband remain intact, providing a fertile environment for businesses with clear paths to profitability.

Investors evaluating the aerospace sector may want to monitor the progress of these Department of Defense negotiations, which could serve as a primary catalyst for SpaceX stock.

Those with a higher risk tolerance might consider SpaceX if management demonstrates a clear path to AI margin improvement, while cautious investors may prefer to wait for official contract filings before taking a position, given the elevated binary risk tied to share supply constraints and AI execution.

Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.

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