Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) reported $7.81 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing no change year over year. EPS of -$0.09 for the same period compares to $0 a year ago.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +16.31% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.72 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.26, the EPS surprise was +65.39%.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how SpaceX performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Revenues- AI: $2.56 billion versus $2.17 billion estimated by four analysts on average.Revenues- Connectivity: $4.29 billion versus $3.91 billion estimated by four analysts on average.Revenues- Space: $962 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $875.35 million.View all Key Company Metrics for SpaceX here>>>

Shares of SpaceX have returned -28.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.7% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported higher revenue and a narrower-than-expected loss in its first earnings report since the satellite, launch and AI company’s initial public offering.

Revenue of $7.8 billion topped analyst estimates of $6.93 billion, up 92% year over year from $4.1 billion.

The company reported a GAAP loss of $0.09 per share, compared with analyst expectations for a loss of $0.23 per share. Net loss was $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from a loss of $1.0 billion a year earlier.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.5 billion from $1.2 billion.

SpaceX said revenue growth across its Space, Connectivity and AI businesses demonstrated the impact of its vertical integration strategy.

The Connectivity segment posted 66% revenue growth and 79% growth in income from operations, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers and continued momentum in its Enterprise and Government businesses.

The company also reported $14.1 billion in contracted sales from multiple Cloud Services Agreements and said it had been awarded more than $6 billion in multi-year US government contracts for Starshield.

SpaceX completed two Starship V3 flight tests during the past 90 days, which it said advanced its efforts toward full and rapid reusability.

“2026 has been a momentous year so far, and the second quarter demonstrated the true power of SpaceX,” the company’s CFO Bret Johnsen said. “Revenue growth accelerated across all our business segments and we delivered strong operating leverage, with significant margin expansion led by our new AI compute agreements.”

Following the report, shares of SpaceX fell about 5% amid continued concerns about rising capital expenditures and impending insider lockup expirations.

The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +9.43%) IPO may have been the biggest market event this year.

Elon Musk's space company went public at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, raising $75 billion, making it the biggest IPO in history. After jumping out of the gate, however, the stock now looks like a broken IPO, down more than 10% from its $135 IPO share price.

SpaceX is set to report its first quarterly earnings after the market closes today, and all eyes will be on the company. Analysts expect it to post revenue of $6.82 billion in the period. The company did not disclose its revenue in the quarter a year ago, but that's up roughly 50% sequentially, driven by new data center leasing agreements with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI, which are expected to make up roughly $2.18 billion in revenue. Revenue from Starlink, or its connectivity business, is projected at $3.83 billion, and the remainder, or $835 million, is from the space segment.

On the bottom line, analysts expect adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.1 billion, due to a large depreciation line item from its capital investments, and an adjusted per share loss of $0.23.

Options markets are pricing in an implied move of 14%-15% on the report, but while the stock could swing big, SpaceX's first report isn't as important as it would be for most IPOs. That's because so much of the company's valuation is based on future development like orbital data centers, which are likely several years away. Additionally, the company says it has identified a $27 trillion addressable market, primarily in AI, though it will take years to begin tackling it. Elon Musk may hype up the company's future on the call, but the quarterly numbers will have little to say about that future.

There is, however, another event later in the week that could be more meaningful for investors.

Image source: SpaceX.

Here come the lockups In addition to the earnings report, this week is key for SpaceX because Thursday marks the first expiration in a series of lockups over the next year that will allow insiders to sell their shares.

On Thursday, 911.5 million shares of the stock will be released from restriction, more than doubling the current float. Just 555.6 million shares were sold in the IPO.

Lockup expirations sometimes trigger sell-offs in stocks as they can significantly increase liquidity. SpaceX stock soared out of the gate in part because there was a limited float available. Investors were fighting over $75 billion shares for a company then valued at nearly $2 trillion and with an unparalleled mission of making human civilization multiplanetary.

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However, the lockup isn't a guaranteed sell-off. If insiders generally hold onto the shares, the market may interpret that as a bullish signal that insiders see the stock going up over the long term and bid the stock up accordingly.

The SpaceX IPO has created a lot of wealth for early investors and insiders, and we're likely to see some selling to take advantage of that. The insider response could also hinge on the second-quarter earnings report and the market's response to that.

If the stock goes up on Wednesday, that could encourage insiders to hold beyond Thursday's lockup expiration. Alternatively, if the stock plunges, they could be spooked into selling, fearful that SpaceX shares could fall even further.

SpaceX SPCX investors are bracing for one of the biggest earnings-driven moves ever seen for a newly listed company, with options traders pricing a swing of roughly $225 billion in the company's market value ahead of its first quarterly results on Tuesday.

According to Reuters, options imply that SpaceX shares could move about 15% in either direction following the earnings release, although current positioning suggests traders are leaning toward further downside.

The implied move is unusually large for a company of SpaceX's size.

The rocket and satellite company still commands a market capitalization of about $1.5 trillion despite its shares having fallen 43% from the closing peak of $201.80 reached shortly after its record-breaking June 12 market debut.

Analysts said the combination of a sharp post-listing decline, a limited trading history and uncertainty over whether the company's financial performance can justify its lofty valuation has pushed options pricing well above levels typically seen for mature blue-chip companies.

By comparison, options markets had priced in only a 6.6% move for Microsoft ahead of its quarterly earnings last week.

Investors remain cautious ahead of resultsSpaceX is expected to report a quarterly loss before interest and taxes of about $1.6 billion on revenue approaching $7 billion.

"The overall volatility level is massive," Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of Capital Market Laboratories, told Reuters.

Investor caution extends well beyond the options market.

The company's stock surged to an all-time intraday high of $225.64 just days after its public debut but has since fallen to around $114.53, reflecting concerns about valuation and the pace at which revenue can support its ambitious growth plans.

Adding to the uncertainty, Tuesday's earnings report will clear the way for approximately 911.5 million shares held by insiders, employees and early investors to become eligible for sale after the lock-up period expires on August 6.

That additional supply could weigh further on the stock if early shareholders decide to cash out.

Bearish positioning has also intensified across other parts of the market.

Leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking SpaceX show investors remain optimistic overall, with assets of roughly $401.1 million across seven bullish single-stock ETFs.

However, nearly $296.8 million has flowed into inverse leveraged funds that profit when the stock declines, according to data from VettaFi.

That gap between bullish and bearish positioning is far narrower than is typically seen for stocks that have leveraged ETF products, highlighting growing investor caution.

Short sellers have also increased their bets against the company.

According to Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex Technologies, roughly 63% of SpaceX's free float is currently on loan to short sellers, close to a record high.

"There is almost no stock left to borrow," Hillerberg said.

Based on SpaceX's July 31 closing price of $108.37, Ortex estimates short sellers are sitting on approximately $18.4 billion in mark-to-market profits.

Meanwhile, investors attempting to hedge their positions have faced rising costs as heightened expectations for earnings volatility have pushed options premiums sharply higher.

Tuesday's earnings report will therefore not only offer Wall Street its first detailed look at SpaceX's financial performance as a public company but could also determine whether the recent slide in its shares deepens or reverses.

One of the most controversial aspects of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +5.62%), more commonly known as SpaceX, is the significant ownership and voting control held by CEO Elon Musk. With 42% ownership stake and more than 80% of the voting power, Musk doesn't have to worry about shareholders potentially removing him, even if they disagree with the company's performance. The power Musk yields with the company has been one of the more striking and controversial features of the stock.

For Musk, however, the reason for this type of structure is simple. He says it's to ensure that he can remain focused on the long term.

Image source: Getty Images.

Musk's vision could take considerable time to play out Musk sees considerable opportunities for SpaceX in the future, not only in space but also in artificial intelligence. Putting data centers into space and helping humans get to Mars one day are extremely lofty goals, which will likely take several years, even under ideal conditions. Thus, getting bogged down by shareholder expectations and needing to please Wall Street can be challenging while still focusing on the space's company's long-term goals.

In a recent interview with The Economist, Musk clarified why so much control for him is necessary. "I really just need to make sure that I can focus on long term," Musk said, believing that will give him sufficient power to control the path of the company. And by long term, he clarified he was referring to a time frame of five to 10 years.

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SpaceX's opportunities are significant, but the stock carries plenty of risk In SpaceX's S-1 filing, the company outlined a massive total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, and that growth potential was a big reason investors were bullish about the stock when it first went public in June. The growth story was so compelling that even at a market cap of around $2 trillion, investors wanted to take a chance on the business.

However, SpaceX stock has proven to be volatile since then. On Friday, it closed below $109 and was down more than 50% from the highs it hit in June, when euphoria sent it to more than $225. This type of volatility may be inevitable around a company with such a high valuation and so much uncertainty around its future. With SpaceX unprofitable and needing significant cash infusions to grow in the long run, investors will need to be incredibly patient with the stock, as it may take a long time for the company to realize its goals.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.

SpaceX Q2 Earnings EstimatesAnalysts expect SpaceX to report second-quarter revenue of $6.93 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Analysts expect a quarterly loss of 26 cents per share.

With the company newly public, there are not figures from last year’s second quarter.

SpaceX had revenue of $18.7 billion in fiscal 2025 and reported a net loss of $4.9 billion.

What Experts are SayingSpaceX has attracted many analyst ratings and price targets since going public, along with commentary from top market experts.

"Investors won’t be focused on what the company earned over the past three months, but will likely be looking years down the road," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods highlights capital spending as one of the biggest items to watch in the earnings report and in commentary from company management.

"This is expected to be less about the numbers and more about Elon Musk’s vision, his capital spending plans and whether Wall Street is willing to continue funding one of the market’s most ambitious growth stories."

Woods said to look for spending on Starship, Starlink and AI infrastructure and the expected capital returns. Specifically, the market expert said investors should also look for updates on Starlink subscriber growth, government contracts and Starship’s commercialization timeline.

The market expert also said investors should be aware of a lock-up expiration of around 911 million shares on Aug. 6. Those shares held by employees and early investors will be eligible to be sold, adding to the supply of shares available. SpaceX is unlikely to hit other milestones that would unlock more shares yet.

"For one of the year’s most anticipated IPOs, the first earnings report could set the tone for the rest of 2026."

Here are some recent analyst ratings on SpaceX stock and their price targets:

Macquarie: Maintained Outperform rating, with price target $250 HSBC: Initiated with Hold rating, with price target $115 Piper Sandler: Initiated with Neutral rating, with price target $156 Needham: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $200 to $250 Evercore ISI: Initiated with Outperform rating, with prices target $230 Key Items to WatchAs the first earnings report as a public company, this could mark a turning point in the SpaceX storyline. The company’s IPO prospectus featured large focus on total addressable market sizes for items like space, AI and more.

Musk is likely to give more details on timelines for some items, including trips to the Moon and Mars.

Those items don’t exactly spark great ideas on the company’s future.

Expect Musk to be overly positive on the company’s future, as he has already warned short sellers betting against the company. With the stock price down, Musk is likely to find more ways to get investors excited about the company’s future.

SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is up 1.9% to $110.37 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. SpaceX stock is down 31.4% from its initial market debut and shares are down 51.1% from their market highs.

Imagen: Shutterstock

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Stock Market Gains Even As Apple Crumbles; Jobs Report, AMD Earnings Loom SpaceX releases its second-quarter earnings late Tuesday, marking the rocket-maker's first report since its public debut in June. The results should detail the Starbase, Texas-based company's accelerating launch programs, Starlink growth and artificial intelligence developments. The report arrives as SPCX stock last week fell to post-IPO lows. Beyond financial figures and performance metrics, analysts and investors await updates from Elon…

Copyright ©2026 Investor's Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.34%), better known as SpaceX, priced shares for $135 in its June 2026 initial public offering (IPO). The stock has since fallen nearly 16% to $113.5 as of July 27.

A $1,000 investment at the IPO price would have purchased about 7.41 shares and would now be worth roughly $841 as of this writing. However, that calculation assumes the investor received shares at the IPO price, which was not guaranteed for every retail investor. Strong investor demand and a limited supply of publicly traded shares helped drive SpaceX stock higher after its IPO. Investors reportedly submitted more than $250 billion in orders for the SpaceX IPO, while less than 5% of the company's shares were initially available for trading. The stock later lost much of its early gain as investors questioned its lofty valuation.

Image source: Getty Images

Against this backdrop, SpaceX's long-term share price trajectory depends heavily on whether the Starlink satellite internet business can continue to grow profitably and the next-generation Starship reusable rocket system can become a reliable commercial business.

Starlink remains the profit engine SpaceX's connectivity segment, powered mainly by Starlink, generated $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in the first quarter. However, the operating profit can be misleading because SpaceX does not expense the full cost of launching Starlink satellites immediately. Instead, it capitalizes those internal satellite and launch costs in the Connectivity segment and recognizes them gradually through depreciation. In the first quarter, depreciation from capitalized satellite and launch costs added $276 million to Connectivity's cost of revenue.

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Anthropic has also agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for computing capacity through May 2029, although fees are lower during the May and June 2026 ramp-up period.

While that contract could eventually make AI a larger source of revenue, the AI segment is still loss-making. SpaceX's AI segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss in the first quarter, showing that rapidly rising compute revenue may not immediately translate into profits. Hence, for now, Connectivity segment remains the company's main source of operating profit.

SpaceX will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4. Around 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could become eligible for sale soon after this earnings report. While not all the eligible shareholders may sell the stock immediately, even a partial release could sharply increase the stock's available supply and add to near-term volatility.

SpaceX's planned $60 billion stock-funded Cursor acquisition would dilute existing shareholders if completed. Additionally, the $25 billion bond offering adds interest costs as the company continues investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), Starship, and other ambitious projects.

Starship is also expected to become a key growth catalyst. The rocket is designed to carry up to 60 higher-capacity Starlink V3 satellites per launch, potentially deploying 20 times more network capacity than the currently used Falcon 9 rocket. However, SpaceX must still prove that Starship can launch and be reused reliably enough to lower costs and improve Starlink's economics.

SpaceX is trading at roughly 38.5 times the analyst consensus 2026 revenue estimate of $39.3 billion. The premium valuation assumes major success across several businesses that are not yet profitable or fully commercial.

SpaceX could eventually justify a premium if Starlink maintains strong margins, Starship becomes dependable, and AI segment becomes profitable.

watch now

The top Democrat on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is demanding that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk provide a tour of his company's xAI data centers and power plants in and around Memphis, Tennessee.

"Americans are concerned about what data centers and Big Tech's push for more AI means for their communities, jobs, property values, and future," Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) wrote in a letter to Musk on Wednesday. "Electricity prices are skyrocketing, the electric grid is strained, our clean air and water are being polluted, and noise is wearing on communities' health and patience."

Public opposition to data centers is rising in the U.S. after xAI's buildout in Memphis, and with others underway from OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft and Google. Gallup found in a survey published in May that seven in 10 Americans oppose the construction of an AI data center in their local area, with 48% strongly opposed.

Pallone has demanded information about Musk's facilities by Aug. 11.

SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment.

SpaceX's artificial intelligence facilities, known as Colossus and Colossus 2, include three data centers packed with cutting-edge Nvidia processors. They were built by xAI, before SpaceX acquired Musk's startup, which is the developer of Grok's AI models, chatbot and image editing tools.

The facilities are at the heart of SpaceX's AI ambitions, as the company tries to compete with the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic, and to eventually build orbital data centers.

Pallone excoriated SpaceX and Musk for a "disregard for the health and well-being of local communities." He said the company has created "a massive health risk" to neighbors by "trucking in off-grid gas turbines" to power the facilities, all without the proper permits and pollution controls.

President Trump's Department of Justice has filed a motion to intervene, and to effectively help xAI fight off a lawsuit, which was filed by environmental advocates and the NAACP in Mississippi to stop the company's use of allegedly illegal, air-polluting turbines.

"The Trump Administration has essentially claimed that it alone decides whether SpaceXAI and other companies get a free pass to pollute unimpeded," Pallone wrote. "But just because the Trump Administration will bend over backward to give tech companies free rein over community air, water, and land does not make your actions legal."

New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, enacted legislation earlier this month to ensure data center operators pay a fair share for electricity, instead of shifting costs to residents and businesses.

Read the letter here.

SpaceX (SPCX -2.85%) got a new review from a major bank on Friday, and it wasn't the vote of confidence shareholders were hoping for. HSBC initiated coverage of the rocket and satellite company with a Hold rating and a $115 price target. That number sits below the $135 price at which SpaceX went public in June.

The market wasted no time making its own statement. Shares fell as much as 6% on Friday, dipping below the new target shortly after its publication, before closing at $115.07 -- seven cents above it.

That makes SpaceX the rare stock that trades simultaneously below its IPO price, right at a major bank's days-old price target, and roughly 50% below the high of $225.64 it reached shortly after its debut.

What's most interesting about HSBC's math, though, is how generous it tried to be.

Image source: Getty Images.

A premium for Musk, and still a Hold HSBC built its valuation as a sum of the parts, adding up what it believes SpaceX's businesses are worth. Then it did something unusual. It applied a 2x premium to account for CEO Elon Musk's track record of commercializing disruptive technologies. In other words, the bank built a 2x innovation premium into its sum-of-the-parts math, on the theory that Musk has repeatedly built industries where none existed.

Even with that premium, the answer came back at $115, along with a conclusion that the price already reflects much of the company's long-term growth potential -- including continued expansion of Starlink, rising launch activity, and the development of its artificial intelligence initiatives. The bank did sketch a friendlier picture. Its most optimistic scenario, which assumes the Starship rocket becomes commercially viable starting in 2027 and launch capacity doubles, values the stock at $293 per share. But that's the ceiling case, not the expectation.

That's the detail I'd sit with. When a valuation grants the founder credit most models never grant, and still can't reach the IPO price, the exercise says as much about the price as it does about the company.

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The disagreement is enormous To be fair, HSBC is one voice, and a notably cautious one next to the rest of Wall Street. The average price target on SpaceX sits at about $237, more than twice the recent share price. Even more telling, individual targets range from $62 all the way to $800. A range that wide is less a forecast than an admission that nobody has figured out how to value this company yet. And HSBC's Hold rating, for what it's worth, implies the stock roughly treads water from here. The bank's caution is about the price, not the business.

The fundamentals explain the confusion. SpaceX's trailing-12-month revenue totals about $19 billion, and its 2025 revenue grew 33% -- remarkable growth for an industrial company. But the stock's market capitalization stands at about $1.5 trillion, which values the company at more than 75 times its sales. The business remains unprofitable, too, as it pours money into developing its Starship rocket. There are no earnings to check the valuation against yet, and there won't be for some time.

Hard evidence is finally coming, though. SpaceX is expected to report its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4, giving investors their first standardized look at the company's finances since the IPO. The first wave of insider share lockups begins expiring shortly after the report. For a debate currently running on beliefs, that report is the first common set of facts both sides will have to reckon with -- and every model on Wall Street, HSBC's included, gets rebuilt on real quarterly disclosure from that day forward.

So, is the newly cheaper stock worth buying now that it has fallen to even a skeptic's target? I don't think the target itself should drive anyone's decision. HSBC's $115 is one bank's estimate, and the consensus near $237 is an average of guesses that disagree with one another by hundreds of dollars.

My takeaway is simply that SpaceX's current valuation continues to require a lot of imagination to justify. A major bank went looking for reasons to be generous with SpaceX, applied the biggest one it could justify, and still concluded the stock was worth less than its IPO price.

I'm not buying before the company's Aug. 4 numbers are released. Sure, a business compounding revenue at 33% deserves respect. But at a $1.5 trillion valuation, I want to see more momentum in its financials before paying up for this stock.

Item 1 of 3 The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy v3 booster in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 22, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius

[1/3]The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

WASHINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) - SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab Starship rocket lifted off from Texas on Friday and deployed its first 20 upgraded Starlink satellites into suborbital ​space, one of many testing goals in the company's 13th test mission as it ‌races to begin routine service with the rocket by the end of the year.

The roughly 400-foot-tall (122 m) Starship rocket system blasted off around 6:50 p.m. ET from SpaceX's Starbase company town, with the Super Heavy first stage booster sending its ​Starship upper stage on a suborbital trajectory. The roughly hour-long mission will conclude with Starship's reentry ​through Earth's atmosphere and a splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

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As Starship approached 16,400 miles ⁠per hour (26,400 kph) in space some 10 minutes into its flight, the Super Heavy booster returned ​to Earth and impacted the Gulf of Mexico harder than expected, SpaceX said, though it had reignited more ​engines than its botched return in May during a previous test flight.

The Starship test flight is SpaceX's 13th since 2023, featuring a new version of the rocket crucial to the company's plans to expand Starlink, land humans on the moon for ​NASA and eventually deploy thousands of artificial intelligence-processing satellites in orbit.

Twenty minutes into its spaceflight, Starship began ​deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, dispensing them one by one via the ship's "Pez"-like payload deployment. Flying over a shadowed Earth, ‌thunderstorms ⁠with flashes of lightning were visible in the background 118 miles (190 km) below, according to a camera fixed to the rocket and streamed live by SpaceX.

A crowd of SpaceX engineers in SpaceX's Hawthorne, California, facilities could be heard on the live stream cheering at the rocket's mission milestones, at one point chanting "USA."

While in ​space, the Starlink satellites — a ​new "V3" version with ⁠greater bandwidth capabilities — will deploy solar arrays and antennae to briefly connect with SpaceX's Starlink network of some 10,000 satellites orbiting above.

The Starlinks are the first to ​be deployed by Starship, though they will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory into ​Earth's atmosphere ⁠and burn up.

Some of them have spotlights and cameras that will record Starship's heat shield as it hits intense atmospheric friction later in the mission, giving SpaceX key testing insight into how well the rocket survives its ⁠return from ​space.

SpaceX plans to use Starship by the end of 2026 ​to begin launching thousands of Starlink V3 satellites, expanding the constellation's capacity to be able to connect directly to mobile devices such ​as cell phones. The current network only connects to Starlink-branded dishes.

Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Chris Reese

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.

At 6:45 p.m. ET tonight, SpaceX (SPCX -2.85%) gets a third try at its most consequential launch as a public company. Starship Flight 13 has a 90-minute window to lift off from the company's Starbase site in Texas, carrying the first 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.

"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," CEO Elon Musk wrote on X after the first attempt on July 16. SpaceX swapped out engines, and then weather postponed the second try on Thursday.

The stock could use the win. Shares sit at about $112 as of this writing, roughly 1% above their all-time low of $110.85 and well below the $135 price from June's initial public offering (IPO).

Image source: The White House.

What tonight actually decides is the timeline of Starlink's next capacity leap. Each V3 satellite is designed to deliver about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, roughly 10 times what the current generation of satellites provides. A full Starship load of about 60 of them would add roughly 60 terabits per second to the network, about 20 times what a Falcon 9 launch delivers today. That capacity is what lets a satellite network sell faster service to more subscribers without congestion. It's the foundation of the company's plan to turn Starlink into a gigabit-speed internet provider.

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The satellites can only ride on Starship, though, and Starship has kept them grounded for eight days now. The 20 satellites aboard are a deployment test: They will extend their solar arrays and antennas and attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation. Until that demonstration works, the V3 capacity ramp stays theoretical.

A successful flight tonight won't settle the argument over the stock, which still carries a market value near $1.5 trillion against a business that loses money. The next major financial update arrives Aug. 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company. But a clean deployment would show the next generation of the company's biggest product working in space before those numbers land. After six weeks of nearly uninterrupted decline, that would count as the first hard piece of good news this stock has had.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX SPCX shares fell more than 3% on Thursday as investors awaited the company's delayed Starship test flight, a mission widely viewed as a key catalyst for the newly public space and artificial intelligence company.

The stock traded around $111.35 in early trading after tumbling 6.7% on Wednesday, extending a volatile stretch following its record-setting initial public offering.

Broader markets were also weaker, with futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

Investor attention is centered on SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight, scheduled to lift off from Texas later today.

The launch was originally planned for July 16 but was postponed for a week because of an engine issue.

The mission is expected to be closely watched by investors looking for evidence that the company can continue advancing its launch capabilities as it seeks to justify its premium valuation.

Shares have struggled since their initial surge following the IPO, with valuation concerns weighing on sentiment.

According to the information provided, SpaceX trades at roughly 40 times estimated 2026 sales, a multiple that investors have questioned given the company's size and current financial profile.

Bearish investors have continued to add to their positions as the stock declined below its IPO price.

According to Reuters, citing Ortex Technologies data through Tuesday, short sellers are sitting on an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits since SpaceX's mid-June listing.

The stock has fallen below its $135 IPO price after reaching a post-listing high of $225.64 and dropped to a record low of $115.26 on Wednesday.

"There is no sign of short sellers taking profits on SpaceX," Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg told Reuters.

"If anything they are leaning in harder," Hillerberg added.

According to Ortex, approximately 360 million SpaceX shares, representing about 56% of the free float, were on loan through Tuesday, indicating sustained bearish positioning.

Chief Executive Elon Musk responded earlier this week with a warning aimed at investors betting against the company.

“Survival probability of firms who maintain significant short position in SPCX over time is very low,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

Analysts remain constructiveDespite the recent share price weakness, Wall Street analysts continue to maintain a largely positive outlook on SpaceX.

According to LSEG data, 27 of the 32 analysts covering the stock recommend buying it, while four have Hold-equivalent ratings and one recommends selling.

Supportive analysts argue that the company's Starlink satellite internet business, government launch operations, and Musk's history of attracting investor interest justify a valuation premium despite SpaceX reporting a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year.

Analysts have also identified Thursday's Starship test flight as a potential catalyst, with investors expected to assess the company's execution in its launch business ahead of its upcoming earnings report and the continued expansion of its public float.

SpaceX (SPCX -6.70%) is once again looking to launch a test flight of its Starship megarocket. Investors should be paying very close attention, as the impact on SpaceX’s stock price should be meaningful.

After several aborted attempts, the company is looking to complete the rocket’s thirteenth test flight on July 23. As with most SpaceX launches, the attempt will be livestreamed via the company’s website.

“The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America,” SpaceX explains. “There have been several modifications to hardware and software to address issues seen on the previous flight.”

The impact of this test flight for SpaceX cannot be overstated. In many ways, SpaceX’s long-term growth plans hinge on the company’s ability to successfully commercialize its Starship rocket.

If you’re a current or potential SpaceX investor, there are two things you need to know.

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1. Starship is critical for SpaceX growth plansIn its IPO prospectus filed earlier this year, SpaceX was not shy about predicting its growth potential.

“We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” the company boasted. “We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion.”

Digging deeper, it may be surprising to learn that SpaceX attributes just $370 billion to what it calls “space-enabled solutions”. That bucket includes the total revenue potential of commercializing its Starship rockets.

With a market cap well above $2 trillion, successfully commercializing rockets may not seem critical to SpaceX’s long-term plan, given its relatively low growth potential. But investors must understand that the success of SpaceX’s Starship rocket will enable other growth opportunities that are much more lucrative long term. In other words, Starship’s value won’t be relegated to payload fees alone.

For example, SpaceX attributes $1.6 trillion of its total addressable market to its Starlink internet service. If successful, its Starship rocket would dramatically increase the number of satellites SpaceX can launch in any given year while also lowering the cost of getting them into space.

In other words, SpaceX’s Starship rocket will increase the odds that SpaceX will be able to realize as much of its claimed $1.6 trillion opportunity as possible.

Meanwhile, SpaceX attributes a massive $26.5 trillion of its total $28.5 trillion addressable market to a single opportunity: AI. While this bucket contains many smaller opportunities, one of SpaceX’s biggest growth catalysts should be the realization of orbital data centers.

Orbital data centers are exactly what they sound like: data centers that operate in space. In space, data centers can take better advantage of solar energy and low ambient temperatures, lowering ongoing operating costs.

There are many technical challenges to getting data centers to operate successfully in space. One of the biggest, however, is simply getting these systems into space economically. If successful, SpaceX’s Starship rocket would meaningfully improve the company’s chances of doing so.

Image Source: Getty Images

2. Competition for Starship is heating upSpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, which will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.

Government entities like China’s CNSA and India’s ISRO are pursuing their own rocket developments. Meanwhile, private companies, including Blue Origin, Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.91%), and Relativity Space are also aggressively pursuing the development of their own rocket systems.

SpaceX’s rocket program, however, is unique in terms of its vertical integration.

“SpaceX has also effectively achieved a high degree of vertical integration,” observes Government Technology, a public sector magazine. “It owns almost all parts of its supply chain, designing, building, and testing all its major hardware components in-house, with a minimal use of suppliers. That gives it not just control over its hardware but considerably lower costs, and the price tag is the top consideration for launch contracts.”

It’s hard to disagree about SpaceX’s success, both in terms of its launch achievements and its cost competitiveness. But it’s also clear that competition is heating up.

If SpaceX’s upcoming test flight is successful, that will help clear the path for the full commercialization of Starship. In this scenario, SpaceX will once again put itself ahead of the pack in terms of both technology and launch costs. Both of those factors will prove critical to the company’s ability to execute on its long-term growth potential.

SpaceX’s rocket program is arguably the most advanced rocket program on the planet. But there’s rising investment across the industry, a fact that will create more competition for SpaceX over the coming months and years.

With Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company on August 4, over 1.37 billion shares of SpaceX stock are scheduled to unlock on August 6, 2026

Two days after the company’s earnings report, 20% of locked-up SpaceX stock, representing about 911.5 million shares, will enter the tradable float, according to the S-1 filing. An additional 10% tranche, which is around  455.8 million SpaceX shares, may also unlock on the same date only if the stock trades at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on and including the earnings release date,

As SPCX traded at about $128.97 on July 21, the upcoming August 6 unlock wave is valued at more than $175 billion at press time. A further 7%, amounting to 319 million SpaceX shares, valued at approximately $40.8 billion, is scheduled to unlock around August 21.

Later on September 10, the company will release 7%, or about 319 million shares, also valued at $40.8 billion at the time of reporting. Currently, 555 million shares, or about 5% of the 13 billion SpaceX shares, are available in the public float.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion SpaceX shares remain subject to a separate extended lock-up until June 2027, with no early release provisions.

What’s the impact of upcoming unlocks on SpaceX stock price? The upcoming SpaceX stock unlocks could increase selling pressure amid more than a 36% selloff since the all-time high (ATH).

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold However, SpaceX has received a bullish long-term projection from Wall Street analysts, as Finbold reported. Nonetheless, with the company’s quarterly earnings forecasts still unknown, SpaceX stock could face heightened volatility in the near term fueled by the upcoming share unlocks.

​

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Six weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 3.20%), was the talk of Wall Street.

On June 12, SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment. This nearly tripled the previous largest-ever IPO capital raise of $29.4 billion from overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Image source: Getty Images.

But IPO buzz fades quickly on Wall Street, and reality can hit even the most-hyped stocks like a ton of bricks. Since peaking at $225.64 per share intra-day on June 16, SpaceX stock has plunged 45% to less than $124 per share (as of the July 17 close).

Some investors will undoubtedly see a bargain, given Elon Musk's track record at Tesla and SpaceX's opportunity amid the two hottest trends on Wall Street: AI and the space economy. I see far more pain to come for shareholders as historical precedent takes hold.

The accelerated unlock period is quickly approaching For starters, SpaceX's insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) are set to enjoy the greatest wealth transfer in history. In a matter of weeks, most insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares to retail investors.

Whereas most newly public companies adhere to a 180-day lockup period, in which insiders can't sell their shares, SpaceX offers a staggered and accelerated unlock schedule that begins two days after the company's first quarterly operating report as a public company. SpaceX is currently estimated to report its latest quarterly operating results on Aug. 6.

Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF

-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 The company's float is set to grow every few weeks through mid-December, adding downside pressure on SpaceX stock.

Historically, SpaceX's valuation is a nightmare Although it's not uncommon for investors to place high premiums on companies at the forefront of game-changing technologies, SpaceX's valuation is historical nightmare fuel.

No company heralding the charge of a leading innovation has ever sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 for any lengthy period. SpaceX is currently trading at 42 times Wall Street's consensus sales estimate for this year. In other words, Musk's company would need to fall nearly 30% more from its current level just to push below historic bubble territory.

Furthermore, the company isn't particularly close to recurring profits, and its capital-intensive operating model leaves virtually no margin for error or delays.

Image source: Getty Images.

Debt and equity offerings are coming To round things out, SpaceX's prospectus made clear that, in addition to its IPO capital raise, debt and equity offerings would be used to fund the company's AI infrastructure expansion, among other corporate initiatives.

Less than two weeks after going public, the company priced a $25 billion bond offering, with maturities from 2031 to 2056. The price of these bonds has been falling steadily since issuance, signifying concern from bondholders that SpaceX may be unable to meet its obligations.

Additionally, equity offerings would be dilutive to existing shareholders. Given that SpaceX is spending a small fortune on its AI data center build-out, capital-raising activity that weighs on the company's shares is a near-certainty.

When SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX went public just over a month ago, on June 12, it did so as the most hotly anticipated listing in years, and unmistakably as a space company. Rockets, satellites, and Mars ambitions were the story. But barely a month into its life on the public markets, a different narrative is taking hold on Wall Street, and it has far more to do with artificial intelligence (AI) than with space travel.

SpaceX Today

$123.99 -7.12 (-5.43%)

As of 07/17/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$122.12▼

$225.64Price Target$234.78

The timing is interesting because the stock itself has had a rough start. After hitting a post-IPO high in the sessions following its IPO, SpaceX shares have slumped around 40% and are now trading below the $135 price at which they listed.

Get SpaceX alerts:

For a company that generated so much excitement coming to market, dipping below the IPO price inside the first few weeks isn’t a great look. Yet beneath that disappointing price action, the emerging investment case may be more compelling than the chart suggests.

Why the AI Narrative Is Taking OverThe core of the argument is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet network. On the surface, it's a connectivity business, beaming broadband down to homes, vehicles, and remote corners of the planet. But increasingly, investors are recognizing that a global, low-latency connectivity network is exactly the kind of infrastructure the AI era is going to depend on.

As AI systems become more embedded in everyday devices, vehicles, and industrial applications, the need for reliable connectivity to move data back and forth grows enormously. Starlink is one of the very few networks capable of providing that coverage at scale.

The bulls argue that this could make SpaceX something like an AI infrastructure landlord, with its network and vertical integration allowing it to control data movement and potentially support entirely new compute products over time.

This is a view that Wedbush's Dan Ives has been vocal about for some time. He argues that SpaceX should be seen as much more of a data and AI play than a traditional space company, pointing to the strategic value of its network and the growing data demands flowing through it. If that framing gains wider acceptance, it fundamentally changes the lens through which the company is valued to the upside.

The Speculative Upside, and the Very Real RisksBeyond connectivity, there's an even more ambitious element to the thesis. There has been growing discussion around the potential for data centers in space, using solar power and natural cooling to run compute-intensive AI workloads outside the constraints of terrestrial infrastructure.

Tied to this is the Terafab semiconductor project, which Oppenheimer recently described as “critical” to SpaceX's future valuation, while also cautioning that it remains speculative and carries real execution risk.

That tension sits at the heart of the debate. The upside case is enormous, but it rests on ambitious projects that are far from proven, and the company is burning through significant cash to pursue them. The bears make a fair point that the current valuation already implies extraordinary growth, with no guarantee that the vast AI opportunity translates cleanly into durable, high-margin profits.

What the Analysts Are SayingSpaceX Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$234.78
89.35% Upside

Moderate Buy
Based on 37 Analyst Ratings

Current Price$123.99High Forecast$800.00Average Forecast$234.78Low Forecast$115.00SpaceX Stock Forecast Details

Despite that rough start, the early analyst coverage suggests the bulls currently outnumber the bears. While Piper Sandler did initiate coverage this week with a cautious Neutral rating, that was a rare outlier versus the likes of Evercore, which gave the stock a Buy rating, one of many in a run of recent bullish analyst calls.

The price targets of some of these recent updates are also hard to ignore, with many clustered around $250, which, from the current level near $130, implies close to 100% upside. Targets like that suggest at least some analysts believe the recent weakness reflects a serious dislocation between the share price and the company's longer-term potential. Especially if the AI infrastructure narrative takes hold, then the current price could look like an entry point in hindsight.

A High-Stakes First Report AwaitsAll of this means SpaceX's first public earnings report, due on Aug. 6, is a pivotal moment. As a newly listed company with no track record of reporting to public markets, this first look under the hood will carry enormous weight in shaping how investors think about the story.

The key will be any commentary that supports the AI infrastructure framing, particularly around Starlink's growth and how management chooses to position the business. Lean into the AI narrative convincingly, and the bulls calling for a doubling of the stock will have real ammunition.

Fall back on a more pie-in-the-sky space story, and that 40% sell-off may prove less an entry point and more a warning. Either way, Aug. 6 should be firmly circled on every investor's calendar.

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Elon Musk's space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), went public on June 12 with an opening price of $150 that day. In the days that followed, stock quickly rallied to an all-time high of $225.64, resulting in a market capitalization of almost $3 trillion.

However, as of the market close on Thursday, July 16, SpaceX stock was down 45% to just $125 as of mid-afternoon Friday. Although Wall Street is forecasting significant revenue growth for the company, its stock continues to trade at a sky-high valuation, which could lead to further volatility from here.

Should retail investors take this opportunity to buy the dip, or would they be better advised to steer clear?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is chasing $28.5 trillion worth of opportunities Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with a clear mission to make the human race interplanetary, but in the years since, it has expanded its focus. The company went on to develop the world's first reusable rocket, which dramatically lowered the cost of launching humans and commercial payloads into orbit, and also reduced the downtime between launches.

The Falcon 9 rocket is responsible for most of SpaceX's successful launches to date, but its Falcon Heavy and Starship rockets have much higher payload capacities. This means they can carry more satellites (and eventually humans) into space per trip, further reducing costs. Starship is expected to enter regular service in a couple of years with a payload capacity of 100 tons, whereas Falcon 9 can carry a maximum of 23 tons.

However, launching astronauts and commercial payloads into space is actually SpaceX's least valuable business, with an addressable market of around $370 billion. The company's satellite internet connectivity segment is capturing a slice of a much larger opportunity worth $1.6 trillion. So far, SpaceX has sent over 9,600 of its Starlink satellites into orbit, where they provide wireless broadband internet access to 10.3 million paying customers here on Earth.

The company will start launching its new V3 satellites later this year, which will offer 10 times the bandwidth of its current V2 satellites. This is where Starship will become especially valuable, because it can deploy 60 satellites at a time, whereas Falcon 9 has a maximum capacity of just 27.

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But over the long term, SpaceX actually thinks AI infrastructure will be its most valuable opportunity. The company only entered this business in February when it acquired one of Elon Musk's other companies, xAI, which came with data centers like Colossus and Colossus II. Since then, it has signed agreements to rent billions of dollars' worth of its spare computing capacity to AI developers such as Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI.

In the future, SpaceX wants to launch clusters of satellites containing AI computing servers into space, where they can run on solar energy and won't need complicated cooling systems. This infrastructure would use Starlink for its data transmission needs, so the company already has a massive advantage over any other competitors aiming to operate orbital data centers. Overall, SpaceX values its total addressable market opportunity in AI at $26.5 trillion.

Investors are still paying a huge premium for SpaceX stock SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from 2024. The internet connectivity business brought in $11.4 billion, while the space segment generated $4.1 billion, and AI infrastructure delivered $3.2 billion. But that order looks set to change in 2026 and beyond, because of the value of its recent cloud computing deals.

SpaceX has agreed to lease up to $1.25 billion worth of data center capacity per month to Anthropic, plus another $920 million worth of capacity per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years.

As a result, Wall Street analysts think SpaceX could more than double its total revenue to $39.2 billion in 2026, and then grow it to $72.7 billion in 2027.

That growth potential explains why some investors are willing to pay a hefty premium for SpaceX stock, which currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 88. That is 14 times the 6.3 P/S ratio of the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, suggesting SpaceX is heavily overvalued compared to its big-tech peers.

Even if we value SpaceX based on its potential 2027 revenue, its forward P/S ratio is still 23.4, which is nearly 4 times higher than where the Nasdaq-100 trades today. And the company is not yet profitable.

Therefore, even after its 45% decline from its peak and its 17% drop from its first-day opening price, SpaceX stock is far from cheap. In fact, I think its lofty valuation leaves it exposed to even more downside potential, so I personally won't be buying this dip.

Short sellers are rapidly increasing their bets against SpaceX, driving bearish positioning to nearly one-third of the company's public float as the struggling stock hovers around its IPO price.

About 185 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 29% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in bearish wagers, according to S3 Partners. The position has ballooned from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, just three weeks ago.

"We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.

The surge in short interest comes as SpaceX shares have struggled after an initially strong debut. The stock has fallen about 20% in July and briefly slipped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time. The stock last traded around $136 apiece.

SpaceX one month

The bearish positioning comes ahead of a closely watched lockup schedule that could substantially increase the number of shares available for trading over the coming months. SpaceX's initial public float represented only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion shares outstanding, leaving the vast majority of stock still subject to lockup restrictions, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc estimated the first major unlock could come around the company's second-quarter earnings report, when about 11% of outstanding shares may become eligible for sale.

Additional tranches of roughly 4% each are scheduled to be released beginning around day 70 after the IPO, followed by further unlocks tied to performance milestones and third-quarter earnings, the firm said.

The largest block remains Elon Musk's stake, representing about 42% of shares outstanding, which is locked up until June 2027.

The company's 13th Starship test flight is slated for Thursday, an catalyst that could influence sentiment toward the shares.

The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 15 (Reuters) - SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price on Wednesday, a first for the company, just over a month after a frenzy over the rockets-to-AI firm powered the biggest ​IPO ever and made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

Its shares (SPCX.O), opens new tab slid 2.7% to $132.5, falling ‌below the $135 apiece IPO price and well below the all-time high of $225.64, which propelled the company's market valuation briefly above those of Silicon Valley giants Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab.

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Many contended the stock's rally was likely vulnerable to reversals, given ​SpaceX's $4.9 billion in net losses last year and the uncertainty over the firm's prospects as ​well as the stock valuations that might hold across the market at a ⁠time when inflation has been rising, putting the Fed's policymakers on notice.

The decline leaves investors who ​bought into the company at the IPO price sitting on paper losses for the first time, potentially ​testing confidence in the stock.

It also offers a reminder that Wall Street enthusiasm can cool quickly, even for a company with the size and scale of SpaceX, which raised around $85.7 billion and fetched a valuation of around $2.1 trillion at ​the end of its first trading day.

It is not uncommon for a stock to fall below ​the IPO price, especially during periods of broader market stress.

Wall Street's main indexes have been under pressure in recent ‌weeks due ⁠to uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path and concerns about the durability of the rally powered by AI winners such as chipmakers.

Still, the drop may bolster critics who had argued that SpaceX's valuation was stretched, as the company was unprofitable and many of its ambitious bets were still untested.

Investors ​would find better entry points ​after the first ⁠wave of excitement had faded, some analysts had warned before the IPO.

The reversal also underscores the risks of chasing momentum, and the limits of a ​valuation driven more by narrative than near-term fundamentals.

The stock's addition to prestigious indexes, ​such as ⁠the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab, did little to reignite the buying. SpaceX's shares have dropped nearly 13% since they were included in the Nasdaq 100.

The focus now shifts to the company's first results after listing. SpaceX has not ⁠yet disclosed ​when it plans to do it, but has said they ​will be released only through its website and its social media account on X, and not through wire distribution services.

Reporting by ​Niket Nishant, Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Pooja Desai

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

SpaceX SPCX shares rose about 1.5% on Tuesday, recovering modestly after a recent selloff that brought the stock close to its initial public offering price, as a broader market rally and a fresh bullish analyst initiation supported sentiment.

The stock traded around $141 after falling about 4% on Monday. Despite the rebound, shares remained only slightly above the company's $135 IPO price.

The broader market also advanced after June inflation data came in weaker than expected.

The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around the flatline.

The consumer price index fell 0.4% in June from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.5%.

Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly decline of 0.1% and an annual inflation rate of 3.8%.

Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, with shares opening at $150 the following day.

The stock climbed as high as $225.64 on June 16 before retreating nearly 40% from that peak. On Monday, shares fell as low as $136.78, narrowly remaining above the IPO price.

The decline has come despite broadly positive sentiment from Wall Street analysts.

Approximately 80% of analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a Buy, compared with a typical Buy-rating ratio of 55% to 60% for S&P 500 companies.

The average analyst price target stands at about $240 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $3 trillion.

Several Wall Street firms have also outlined long-term growth scenarios for the company based on expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses.

On Tuesday, Evercore ISI initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target.

Analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as "an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity."

According to Evercore, the company has built a vertically integrated business that has established a near-monopoly on orbital access through reusable, low-cost launch technology.

The firm projects revenue and EBITDA to compound at 106% and 157%, respectively, through 2028, while forecasting margin expansion from 35% to 69%.

SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in revenue and $3.95 billion in EBITDA in 2025.

Evercore said several milestones will be important in validating its long-term investment thesis.

The firm pointed to expected progress in Starship payload delivery during the second half of 2026, continued Starlink broadband expansion through 2026 and 2027, and the development of the company's mobile strategy between 2027 and 2029.

Evercore also cited terrestrial compute growth through 2028, orbital compute viability beyond 2029, and enterprise adoption of Grok and Cursor between 2026 and 2028 as additional milestones investors should monitor.

Earlier this week, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239.

SpaceX SPCX shares fell more than 2% on Friday, extending a volatile stretch that has erased the stock's post-IPO gains as investors continue debating whether Elon Musk's AI and space ambitions justify one of the world's richest valuations.

The stock traded around $148, below its $150 listing price, after briefly soaring to a record closing high of $201.80 on June 16 following its blockbuster market debut.

The sharp swings come as Wall Street publishes its first wave of research following SpaceX's record-setting IPO, with analysts offering differing views on the company's long-term potential.

Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham was among the most outspoken critics, describing the IPO as a potential landmark market bubble in a recent interview with Morningstar.

Grantham argued that much of SpaceX's valuation rests on aggressive assumptions about artificial intelligence despite what he described as the company's relatively weak competitive position in AI software.

He also questioned projections around orbital AI infrastructure and broader space-related opportunities outlined in the IPO prospectus, arguing they require technological advances that remain highly speculative.

Grantham said the stock could continue rising in the near term because of strong investor demand and index-related buying, but maintained that the valuation would ultimately have to be supported by fundamentals.

Musk remains bullishMusk, however, has continued to raise expectations.

Responding to comments on X this week, the SpaceX chief executive said the company could eventually become "worth more than the rest of Earth" if it achieves its long-term goals.

The remarks add to a series of ambitious projections from Musk, who has previously argued Tesla could become more valuable than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.

Several Wall Street firms have also outlined aggressive long-term scenarios for SpaceX, driven largely by expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future AI infrastructure businesses.

Raymond James currently has one of the Street's highest published price targets at $800 per share, while Citi's bull-case scenario values the company at roughly $12 trillion.

SpaceX also faces growing competition overseas.

China on Friday successfully landed the booster stage of its reusable Long March-10B rocket, marking the country's first successful recovery of an orbital-class reusable booster.

The milestone places China's Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. alongside SpaceX and Blue Origin among the small group of organizations to demonstrate reusable rocket landing capability.

While SpaceX remains the clear global leader in reusable launch technology, China's latest achievement highlights the increasing pace of competition in the commercial space industry as governments and private companies race to lower launch costs and expand access to orbit.

SpaceX's pullback follows an explosive start to life as a public company, with the stock surging more than 30% in its first few trading sessions before reversing sharply.

The combination of lofty valuation expectations, ambitious long-term projections, and limited public trading history has left the shares particularly sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

With Wall Street still establishing coverage and investors trying to assess the company's AI, satellite, and launch businesses under one public valuation, analysts expect trading to remain volatile in the months ahead.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.02%), or SpaceX as most know the company, recently became the largest IPO in history. But investors may not realize just how little of the company is currently trading on the market. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares to public investors, which sounds like a lot, but it's not. That's only about 4% of the total company.

Major investors, employees, and insiders own the rest. That includes CEO Elon Musk, who owns approximately 42% of the company through a combination of more than 4.8 billion shares and stock options. However, Musk is bound to an extended lockup provision that prevents him from selling any of his shares until June of next year, or 366 days after the IPO.

Here's a look at how these provisions might affect SpaceX stock between now and then.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX structured its lockup window to minimize volatility Musk and his companies have an enormous following, especially among individual investors. SpaceX tried to account for this when it planned out its lockup periods. Lockups prevent insiders and major investors from dumping shares on the market once a company goes public. Typical lockups expire after 180 days, but SpaceX has staggered its lockups to minimize volatility in its share price.

There are multiple lockups, not including the extended lockup Musk is subject to.

Investors can sell up to 20% of their stock shortly following SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, its first since the IPO. Another 28% unlocks following the company's third-quarter earnings report. Investors might be able to sell more, based on how the stock is trading at the time.

Additionally, shares will steadily unlock in 7% increments, regardless of share price, on days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 after the IPO. Any remaining shares, excluding the extended lockup, unlock at the traditional 180 days.

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Musk's eventual lockup expiration could weigh on an expensive stock The important point here is that the number of shares available for trading will increase significantly over the next six months. Although it's unlikely that Musk will dump his stake next year, even trimming it to monetize some of his fortune could continue to push lots of new shares into the market a year after the IPO, after a ton of stock has already flooded the market. That could weigh on the share price without sufficient demand to absorb all those additional shares.

It's not the only factor. SpaceX went public amid a ton of hype and excitement, which drove the stock's valuation to pretty lofty heights. The stock still trades at over 100 times its 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion. In other words, there's a ton of room for shares to fall if sentiment turns south. It's a risk worth considering when deciding whether to buy the stock.

The real headline may be the bank’s expectation that the company can grow revenue at a staggering 91% annual rate through 2030—a forecast that, according to JPMorgan, has surprisingly little to do with selling more rocket launches.

Instead, analyst Doug Anmuth argues launches are simply the foundation for a much bigger business.

The AI Story Hidden Behind the RocketsFor years, investors have viewed SpaceX primarily as a launch company powered by Falcon rockets and Starlink satellites.

JPMorgan believes that narrative is already becoming outdated.

Anmuth says “launch is SpaceX’s core competitive advantage that enables every other part of the business,” with rapid Starship reusability laying the groundwork for an AI infrastructure platform rather than simply a larger launch business.

By 2031, JPMorgan expects Starship launches to ramp from only a handful this year to roughly 5,000 annually, enabling SpaceX to deploy 75 gigawatts of orbital compute as it pursues an addressable market exceeding $28 trillion.

From Connectivity to AIThat shift fundamentally changes SpaceX’s financial profile.

JPMorgan projects revenue climbing from $19 billion in 2025 to $470 billion by 2030, while operating margins improve from negative 14% to roughly 50% over the same period. The driver isn’t simply more launch activity, but what the report describes as a business mix shifting from “Connectivity to AI, first terrestrial, and then orbital.”

Anmuth argues that transition justifies valuing SpaceX more like a next-generation AI infrastructure company than a traditional aerospace business.

Why Launch Still MattersIronically, the bullish AI thesis begins with rockets.

SpaceX has completed roughly 670 orbital launches with a 99%+ mission success rate and has launched more than 80% of all mass sent to orbit since 2023, according to JPMorgan. Those capabilities—and Starship’s rapid reusability—give the company a structural advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate.

That launch leadership, combined with what Anmuth calls SpaceX’s “extreme vertical integration,” enables the company to build not only rockets but also satellites, AI infrastructure and, eventually, orbital data centers faster and more cheaply than rivals.

For investors, that may be the biggest takeaway from JPMorgan’s initiation.

The firm’s $225 price target implies meaningful upside. But the more important bet is that SpaceX’s next decade won’t be defined by how many rockets it launches—it will be defined by what those rockets make possible.

Image via Shutterstock

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) was an IPO of superlatives. From its unparalleled $75 billion raise to its enormous day-one trading volume, it broke so many records that it probably even broke the record for breaking the most records. With a heady mix of space travel, artificial intelligence (AI), and proposals to take tourists to the moon, it's natural to wonder if SpaceX has a place in your portfolio.

The trouble is that it is hard to justify a valuation of over $2 trillion for a firm that reported a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and had total 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Plus, many of the claims in its prospectus -- including the potential total addressable market of $28.5 trillion -- don't stand up to scrutiny. If you're thinking of buying SpaceX today, here are three things to know.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. You may already own it Several major indexes fast-tracked SpaceX's entry, causing index funds to automatically add the stock. The Russell 1000 added SpaceX on June 27, and the Nasdaq-100 followed on July 7, so investors who hold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror those indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF or the Invesco QQQ Trust, already own a small stake in SpaceX.

Other technology- and space-themed ETFs also give exposure to SpaceX. These include Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF and iShares AI Innovation and Tech Active ETF. Think about what percentage of your portfolio you want to allocate to SpaceX and what you'll get through your existing investments.

2. SpaceX is burning through a lot of cash Last year, SpaceX's capital expenditure (capex) totaled $21 billion for its space, connectivity, and AI segments. This year, it is spending money even faster: It burned through over $10 billion in Q1 alone. SpaceX is different from the AI hyperscalers racing for dominance because big tech firms like Alphabet have pretty solid financial cushions and are generating significant revenue to justify some of the costs.

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In fairness, SpaceX has already landed three major AI deals, and its Starlink internet arm does generate cash. Even so, it is borrowing heavily to fund its expansion into two high-risk areas -- space and AI -- and it isn't clear when they will start to pay off. In fact, some of its forays into unproven technologies may never generate revenue.

3. Elon Musk is part of SpaceX's DNA SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is part of why the company's IPO broke so many records. Some invested in SpaceX purely because they believed Musk could deliver, regardless of the risks. But his reputation is not the only reason Musk and SpaceX are tied; the firm is structured around his leadership.

Musk's Class B shares have 10 times the voting power of the Class A shares investors bought in its IPO, giving him control of around 80% of SpaceX's votes. Among other things, if shareholders lose faith in his leadership, they can't force his dismissal. That raises some interesting governance questions that will likely play out in the coming years.

It also raises a practical issue because Musk has other commitments, and any distractions could delay SpaceX's ambitious timelines. Moreover, without a clear succession plan, SpaceX may not survive if ill health or other issues remove Musk from the helm.

The period after high-profile IPOs is always volatile. Throw in the high risks, heavy spending, debt, and structural challenges, and it makes sense for long-term investors to wait and reevaluate SpaceX once the frenzy has passed.