Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

On the surface, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.80%) looks like it is trading at a stratospheric valuation. However, valuations, especially for a stock like SpaceX, aren't always straightforward, and CEO Elon Musk has said the company could be worth more than the Earth's economy.

Let's look at the valuation case for and against the AI stock.

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The case that SpaceX stock is cheap
While SpaceX stock does not look cheap on the surface, it could look very inexpensive in a few years. Musk has projected that the company could generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 and $3.5 trillion by 2033, a staggering amount. That is also well above the current 2030 revenue consensus of $427.1 billion and the 2033 consensus of $1.54 trillion.

While $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 is a huge number, the company can achieve that lofty goal. The company's biggest growth driver in the coming years will be its AI infrastructure business, which is all about access to AI chips and the funding to support these build-outs. This is where SpaceX has a big advantage.

The company has formed a very close relationship with Nvidia, which should give it increasingly more access to its graphics processing units (GPUs). If SpaceX can also get its Terafab joint venture off the ground, it will give it a decided advantage in procuring chips and memory. Musk also holds a lot of clout, and given the company's over $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX should easily be able to raise the funds to support such a build-out through both debt and equity.

On top of that, SpaceX should see strong growth from Starlink, its launch business, and AI coding following its acquisition of Cursor. After acquiring spectrum from Grain Management, SpaceX also appears poised to become more involved in the U.S. mobile market, which is worth more than $350 billion. Meanwhile, its planned $100 billion Starbase Louisiana could lead to a much more aggressive launch schedule in the future.

If SpaceX can get anywhere close to $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, the stock will look undervalued. Tesla has always traded at a premium due to Musk, and the same should be expected for SpaceX. Place a 10 times price-to-sales (P/S) multiple on SpaceX, and it could be a $10 trillion stock in several years, nearly 5 times what it is worth today.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The case that SpaceX is trading at an expensive valuation is a bit more straightforward. The company generated only $18.7 billion in revenue last year, and the current analyst consensus for this year is $45.4 billion. That's light-years away from $1 trillion in revenue.

Meanwhile, while AI infrastructure will be a major driver of SpaceX's revenue, it also comes at a high cost, requiring substantial upfront capital to build data centers. Right now, the company is getting a very short payback on its investments (about one year on chips and networking) because it is doing short-term leases in a compute-constrained environment. However, as compute capacity grows, these favorable economics may not last.

Pushing into the mobile market also would have to be accompanied by a large capital expenditure (capex) outlay, as would its space venture. While SpaceX has a significant revenue opportunity ahead, it's going to have to spend an enormous amount of money to capture it. Added debt and an increased share count from equity raises could lead to a lower share price than it might otherwise achieve if it were a capex-light business.

Given this, the stock looks pricey, trading at a forward P/S multiple of 49 times this year's estimates and 19 times next year's. Notably, this is not a capex-light, high-gross-margin recurring-revenue business model like Palantir. You can much more easily justify that type of multiple with those businesses than one like SpaceX's that requires so much future capex.

It's also worth noting that Musk has a pretty spotty track record with the timing of his predictions, often being many, many years off.

Forvis Mazars Wealth Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) by 115.7% during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 8,096 shares of the company’s stock after purchasing an additional 4,343 shares during the period. Forvis Mazars Wealth Advisors LLC’s holdings in SpaceX were worth $1,221,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

A number of other large investors have also recently modified their holdings of the stock. Syntax Research Inc. bought a new position in SpaceX in the second quarter worth about $26,000. Atwood & Palmer Inc. bought a new stake in SpaceX during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $29,000. PayPay Securities Corp bought a new stake in SpaceX during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Hickory Point Bank & Trust bought a new stake in SpaceX during the 3rd quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Finally, Marquette Asset Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $32,000.

Analysts Set New Price Targets Several research analysts have recently issued reports on SPCX shares. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued a “buy” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, August 25th. Phillip Securities upgraded SpaceX to a “strong sell” rating and set a $75.00 price target on the stock in a research report on Friday, July 31st. Clear Str upgraded shares of SpaceX to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Tuesday, July 7th. DZ Bank began coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Friday, August 21st. They issued a “sell” rating and a $100.00 target price on the stock. Finally, Benchmark initiated coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research note on Monday, June 22nd. They issued a “buy” rating for the company. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-eight have given a Buy rating, nine have issued a Hold rating and six have given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $220.06.

Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on SPCX Trending Headlines about SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: SpaceX’s proposed acquisition of nationwide low-band spectrum could provide the foundation for Starlink Mobile, expanding the company beyond satellite internet into direct wireless services. Analysts see significant long-term revenue potential, although the strategy requires substantial investment. Space Exploration Technologies Eyes Telecom Reach Positive Sentiment: A successful recent Starship orbital milestone and a new Falcon 9 cargo launch highlight SpaceX’s operating progress. The company is seeking approval to eventually conduct as many as 456 Starship launches annually, which could materially increase launch capacity if regulators approve the plan. Why the Starship Launch Is a Big Deal Positive Sentiment: Investors remain focused on growth opportunities including Terafab, a planned Texas chip complex intended to supply custom processors for SpaceX’s orbital data centers and AI systems. Several analysts maintain bullish ratings and see substantial upside if Starship, Starlink and AI initiatives scale successfully. What Is SpaceX Building With Its New Texas Chip Complex? Neutral Sentiment: The broader space investment market is projected to exceed $100 billion in 2026, partly because SpaceX’s IPO and launch-capacity constraints are attracting capital to competing rocket and satellite businesses. This supports industry demand but does not directly resolve SpaceX’s execution challenges. Space Investment to Top $100 Billion Negative Sentiment: SpaceX reportedly plans to raise approximately $40 billion in new debt to fund Nvidia chips and its AI build-out. Reports that borrowing costs and the cost of insuring against default are rising have increased concerns about leverage, cash burn and future dilution or financing requirements. Bond Investors Are Wary of SpaceX’s Borrowing Binge Negative Sentiment: The FAA has begun an environmental review of the proposed South Texas expansion. Approval could enable a dramatic increase in Starship activity, but the review introduces regulatory uncertainty and potential delays. FAA Begins Environmental Review Negative Sentiment: SpaceX also agreed to testify before the New York City Council after receiving a subpoena in an AI-safety investigation. The proceeding adds headline and reputational risk as the company expands into AI. SpaceX Agrees to Testify About AI Safety Negative Sentiment: Some analysts question whether the spectrum purchase and wireless ambitions are being priced too aggressively, particularly given SpaceX’s current losses and the technical limitations of satellite capacity in dense urban markets. Insider Transactions at SpaceX In other SpaceX news, COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 22nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.57, for a total transaction of $52,547,046.90. Following the transaction, the chief operating officer owned 2,472,035 shares in the company, valued at approximately $379,630,414.95. This represents a 12.16% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

SpaceX Price Performance SPCX stock opened at $156.54 on Wednesday. The company has a quick ratio of 4.99, a current ratio of 5.12 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. SpaceX has a 1-year low of $104.83 and a 1-year high of $225.64. The stock has a market capitalization of $2.06 trillion and a PE ratio of -1,739.33. The business has a fifty day simple moving average of $146.63.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The business had revenue of $7.81 billion during the quarter. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, analysts anticipate that SpaceX will post 0.07 earnings per share for the current year.

SpaceX Company Profile (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems designed to reduce the cost of access to space and support commercial, government and scientific missions.

SpaceX’s primary products and services include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starlink satellite internet network. The company also is developing Starship, a fully reusable launch and spacecraft system intended for missions to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars.

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AST SpaceMobile's biggest launch partner is also its most dangerous competitor, and a fresh Wall Street downgrade is forcing investors to decide which role matters more right now.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 8% to $43.38 after a Wall Street downgrade tied to rising competition in direct-to-cell service. That drop is far deeper than anything else in the space group. Its launch provider is also the rival best able to crowd it out, and that tension now drives the debate over AST SpaceMobile shares.

Meanwhile, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is at $62.77, down 2%, a much smaller decline than the one in AST SpaceMobile shares. Similarly, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is at $152.88, down 2%, a slide of comparable scale to the dip in Rocket Lab shares.

The pressure has spread broadly. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) offers a sector reading, since it holds AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, SpaceX and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL), and it’s down 1%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.66%, leaving AST SpaceMobile stock with a far deeper loss than either the sector fund or the SPY ETF.

Piper Sandler Downgrade Puts Launch Pace in Question
Piper Sandler downgraded AST SpaceMobile stock to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $54, citing reduced confidence in the pace of the company’s satellite launches over the next two years. In its note, the firm said it was struck by SpaceX’s expanding plans in the direct-to-cell market, arguing that SpaceX could, in theory, limit launch availability for partners such as AST SpaceMobile or pressure pricing through its own service.

Clear Street took the other side on the same day. It reiterated a Buy rating and a $115 price target and argued that AST SpaceMobile remains roughly six months ahead of SpaceX in direct-to-cell. Separately, three more BlueBird satellites arrived at Cape Canaveral ahead of a planned launch. That flight has no firm date yet, which leaves the timing question Piper Sandler raised without a near-term answer.

Launch Partner Doubles as Chief Rival
AST SpaceMobile connects ordinary smartphones to its BlueBird satellites through partnerships with mobile carriers that already hold spectrum and customers, a list that includes Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Rakuten and AT&T. Under that partner-first setup, carriers share their spectrum and keep traffic in-country, but getting those BlueBirds into orbit still depends on SpaceX rockets from the company now chasing those phone users too.

For Rocket Lab, the bulls might argue that Electron rockets and the Neutron vehicle in development make it a potential launch alternative; the bear case is that SpaceX’s scale keeps pressure on that business. As for SpaceX, bulls point to Starlink’s subscriber base extending to standard phones, while bears see its dual role as supplier and rival inviting the scrutiny Piper Sandler raised.

Investors who are bullish on AST SpaceMobile may point to Clear Street’s view that its head start in direct-to-cell can hold while the constellation grows. Piper Sandler’s warning frames the bear case: a launch constraint could slow that expansion just as SpaceX scales a rival service. Both cases hinge on the same supplier.

Launch Capacity Holds the Key for AST SpaceMobile
Clear Street’s head-start argument faces its own test as SpaceX expands its direct-to-device reach through carrier partnerships abroad. SpaceX already counts SoftBank, NTT Docomo and Spark NZ as mobile partners, so the carrier race is underway on both sides. That matters because AST SpaceMobile’s model relies on carriers bringing their own spectrum and subscribers.

A firm date for the next BlueBird launch is the signal to watch. Until then, investors may want to size their exposure to AST SpaceMobile for further possible swings tied to SpaceX headlines.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Since early August, almost 2.3 billion shares of SpaceX (SPCX -4.21%) owned by employees and early investors have come out of lockup. For comparison, the company sold 639 million shares in its June initial public offering (IPO).

But the growth stock is far higher than when the releases began. Shares ended Monday at around $163 -- about 50% above their $108 close on Aug. 5, the day before the first release.

Granted, the gain looks bigger because of where it starts. Aug. 5 was the day after SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, and the stock lost around 14% that session. Measured from the close before that drop, the gain is about 30%.

Either way, shares have risen while all that supply became eligible to trade. But this year's biggest release is still to come.

Image source: Getty Images.

Smaller moves on release daysSpaceX listed the release dates in its IPO prospectus, and the stock's release-day moves have gotten smaller along the way.

The first and largest came on Aug. 6, when up to 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade, and shares climbed 6% that day. Releases of up to 319 million shares followed on Aug. 20 and again on Sept. 9. The stock lost around 4% each time.

Next came a small batch of up to 59.1 million shares owned by affiliates (officers and other controlling holders) on Sept. 10, and up to 328.4 million shares on both Sept. 24 and Oct. 9. On those three days, the stock gained 0.4%, dipped 0.2%, and gained a little more than 1%.

Including the small affiliate batch, shares fell on three of the six release days. And the last three moves were all smaller than a normal day for this stock, which has typically moved around 2% a session since early August.

Is the supply risk over?I don't think the risk from all that new supply is over, and I don't think the 50% gain is good evidence that it is.

For one thing, the prospectus just sets the first date the shares can be sold. From there, it's up to each holder. On Sept. 24, for instance, around 73 million SpaceX shares changed hands in all -- only about 22% of the 328.4 million that became eligible that day. Most of the batch couldn't have been sold right away, and it could still be sold on any trading day.

Also, the gain depends on where the count starts. Shares are still less than 2% above their $160.95 first-day close in June.

The biggest release comes with earningsThree more releases are set for this year. Up to 328.4 million shares unlock on Saturday, Oct. 24, so the first session they can trade is Monday, Oct. 26. Up to 797.6 million follow after the close on Dec. 8. And in between, up to 1.3 billion shares become eligible on the second full trading day after SpaceX reports third-quarter results.

Notably, that release is around 40% bigger than August's. As of Monday, the company hadn't given a date for the report, though it's probably just weeks away.

Combined, the three could unlock around 2.4 billion shares, more than everything released so far. Around 21% of SpaceX's 13.6 billion shares can trade now. By early December, that number might be near 40%. And CEO Elon Musk's shares are locked until June 2027.

The stock is in a different spot this time, too. When the first release hit in August, shares had just closed around 20% below the $135 IPO price. As of this writing, they're about 21% above it. Holders who weren't willing to sell below the IPO price could be more willing above it.

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Yes, the business is growing fast. SpaceX's second-quarter revenue climbed 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, accelerating from around 15% growth in the first quarter, and its net loss of $541 million was about half the loss from a year earlier.

But the company hasn't reported another quarter since Aug. 4, so investors are paying much more for the same reported numbers. At around $2.2 trillion, SpaceX's market cap is about 71 times sales (using annualized second-quarter revenue).

All told, six releases have passed without lasting damage to the stock, and I think that's a good sign. But the next big one is larger than any of them. It also follows an earnings report and probably comes with shares above their IPO price. I don't think the first six tell us much about how it'll go.

SpaceX just collapsed Grok, Cursor, and X Premium into a single five-tier subscription, slashing prices while quietly shifting the cost burden onto developers who depend on rival AI models.

On October 12, 2026, SpaceXAI posted on X: “We’ve unified plans across Grok, Cursor, and X Premium. Introducing The X Subscription.” The plan places Grok, Grok Bot, Cursor and X Premium into five tiers. The top tier, Ultra, costs $200 a month.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) has a trailing net loss of $8.89 billion. Even so, the package brings down the combined price of its most expensive products.

Current subscribers do not have to switch. According to the company, “Nothing changes for existing SuperGrok, Cursor, or X Premium subscribers,”, and anyone who does switch gets a prorated refund on the old plan. New customers could sign up right away, and the plan was set to reach every country over the following few days.

Shares closed the October 12 session at $163.42, up 0.52%, but posts about the launch only started after the close. By 7:59 p.m. Eastern, the stock had slipped 0.63% to $162.39.

Five Tiers That Cut the Price and Raise the Usage Limit
The Free tier costs $0 and includes daily Grok access, a basic allowance for Cursor’s coding agents, and standard X. Plus costs $8 and adds more AI usage, a checkmark, creator tools, and fewer ads.

Premium costs $30 and gives four times the usage of Plus. Super costs $100 for 15 times the Plus usage, and Ultra gives 50 times.

SpaceXAI says the benefits of SuperGrok, Cursor Pro and X Premium+ were previously $90/month combined, and Premium now covers them. The company also says, “Each comparable new tier provides more usage-per-dollar than the plan it replaces.”

So the price goes down while the usage limit goes up. That only pays off if the cost of serving each request falls faster than the price.

How SpaceX Protects Its Margin
Cursor wrote: “To make room for more Grok usage, third-party models in Cursor move to API pricing on the new plans.” API pricing means you pay per request, with no flat allowance.

Paid plans “share one usage pool across Cursor, Grok Build, and other Grok products.” SpaceXAI also claims each paid plan gives at least twice as much coding usage with its own models as the matching Cursor plan.

The package protects the margin because when the company subsidizes its own models and charges per request for rivals’ models, inference spending (the computing that runs each AI request) shifts to hardware SpaceX owns. In the second quarter alone, SpaceX spent $15.83 billion on AI compute.

Someone has to power, cool, and connect the expansion behind that spending, and we rounded up seven suppliers riding that wave in a free report on the AI infrastructure trade.

If you are a developer who relies on third-party models, the new plan costs you more even though the listed price fell. SpaceX also has not said how many requests or tokens the Plus tier allows.

What the Announcement Did Not Say
The launch came with no subscriber counts, no expected revenue, and no usage limits for the entry paid tier. The small after-hours move shows investors treating it as a price change with no announced revenue upside, and that view looks right.

Trailing revenue is $23.04 billion, and most of it comes from other businesses. In the second quarter, Connectivity brought in $4.291 billion, while Advertising, the line closest to X, shrank from $367 million a year earlier.

What Investors Need to Weigh Before the Next SPCX Report
Revenue growth of 121.9% shows strong demand, but cutting prices on what subscribers already spend makes the trailing loss harder to close.

The stock trades at about 200 times forward earnings. Since the IPO, it has traded between $104.83 and $225.64, down 4.48% over one week and up 8.07% over one month.

The package works if single-product subscribers move up to Super and Ultra. It fails if most of them just get Premium-level discounts.

The next test is the third-quarter report, expected November 3, 2026, though the company has not confirmed that date. If that report shows subscription revenue or a tier mix growing alongside a steadier Advertising line, this view would change. If it shows neither, the package likely worked mainly as a discount on spending that subscribers were already making.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has a rocket big enough to carry a space station. The insurance market isn’t built to cover one.

Andrew Bonwick, VP of Product Development at Relm, told Benzinga that coverage for one launch tops out far below the value of a full Starship load.

“As things stand, the maximum insurance capacity in the market today is around $650 million for any one launch,” Bonwick said. “A 100T payload will be much more valuable than this.”

SPCX stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. A Station Worth BillionsVoyager Technologies Inc. (NYSE:VOYG) is the clearest test case. Its Starlab station is designed to launch on a single Starship flight. Voyager estimates Starlab will cost $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion to design, build and launch.

Its annual report expects a 2029 launch.

At that cost, $650 million would cover only about 20% to 23% of the station. The filing itself warns that “the insurance market for the launch and operation of a non-governmentally owned, crewed space station does not currently exist.”

Bonwick says outside capital could help. “For much bigger payloads, such as one Starlab worth several billion dollars, alternative markets, insurance-linked securities and derivatives could be used to top up coverage,” he said.

Read Next

A Small MarketSpecialty insurance provider Gallagher Specialty puts the market’s competitive capacity at about $300 million in 2026. A single loss can swing results. 

The total loss of SpainSat NG-2, insured for more than $400 million, pushed the market’s 2025 loss ratio from about 15% to about 75%, Gallagher said.

Starship Has to Earn Lower RatesStarship reached orbit for the first time in September, even with an upper-stage engine shutting down during ascent. 

SpaceX self-insures Starlink, so the 26 satellites it carried were almost certainly not covered on the open market, Insurance Business reported. 

Bonwick said Starship will be “looked on favorably because it is SpaceX, but it is a completely different vehicle in terms of fuel, engines and size.” He expects “initial insurance prices will be high, although they will come down quickly if Starship proves to be reliable.”

Voyager shares trade near $27.28, about 45% below their May 28 close of $51.77. The stock fell 16% on Sept. 23 after Voyager launched what became a $402.5 million convertible-note sale.

SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was up 0.63% at $163.59 at the time of publication Monday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Read Next

Photo: Shutterstock

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

SpaceX SPCX stock remains in focus on Wall Street as analysts assess the potential of its Starship rocket programme and the company's expansion into wireless communications through Starlink Mobile.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, implying approximately 85% upside from the stock's October 9 closing price of $162.57.

Lead analyst Adam Jonas said the next two Starship missions could significantly influence investor expectations for the company's growth prospects.

The outlook comes as SpaceX prepares for its next Starship test flights while pursuing opportunities in satellite communications, orbital computing, and manufacturing.

SpaceX stock was up 0.78% at the time of writing on Monday.

Morgan Stanley said the upcoming Starship Flight 15 could represent an important step towards making the next-generation rocket fully reusable.

The mission is tentatively scheduled for November 8, although SpaceX has not confirmed the date.

It could include an attempt to catch the returning spacecraft using mechanical arms at the launch tower, a manoeuvre that Chief Executive Elon Musk has indicated the company hopes to attempt.

Flight 16 could follow as early as December 10, according to preliminary air traffic notices cited by Morgan Stanley. That date also remains unconfirmed.

Successful reusability could reduce launch costs and increase the amount of equipment SpaceX can deliver into orbit.

These improvements could support the expansion of its Starlink satellite network and create opportunities in emerging markets such as orbital computing and manufacturing.

According to Morgan Stanley, a single Starship launch carrying next-generation Starlink satellites could deliver bandwidth capacity equivalent to one to more than two months of current deployments using Falcon 9 missions.

Each Starlink V3 satellite offers approximately 10 times the downlink capacity of the V2 Mini satellites launched aboard Falcon 9 rockets, the report said.

Morgan Stanley expects Starship to accelerate Starlink's deployment by carrying larger payloads into orbit.

Following the deployment of 26 Starlink V3 satellites during Flight 14, Jonas expects the next mission to carry a similar or potentially larger payload.

Starship has the capacity to carry as many as 60 of these satellites, potentially reducing the number of launches required to expand the network.

The developments could also support SpaceX's broader ambitions in satellite communications and artificial intelligence.

Separately, Pivotal Research raised its SpaceX price target to $230 from $220 while maintaining a Buy rating after the company agreed to acquire nationwide wireless spectrum from Grain Management.

Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said SpaceX had effectively created a “legitimate” new low-cost wireless carrier through Starlink Mobile, which could initially target rural and suburban customers by bundling the service with existing Starlink equipment.

The roughly $8 billion agreement covers up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band.

These lower-frequency airwaves can travel farther and penetrate buildings more effectively, potentially extending mobile coverage.

Engine problems remain a risk for Starship timelineDespite the potential benefits, Morgan Stanley highlighted technical challenges that could affect the programme's progress.

All three launches involving the V3 configuration experienced booster engine problems before splashdown, while two also encountered failures involving the spacecraft's vacuum engines.

Although the number of booster engines successfully firing during landing attempts has improved, further setbacks could delay hardware reuse and constrain the launch cadence in 2027.

Investors will therefore be watching the next missions for evidence that SpaceX can improve reliability and move closer to routine reuse.

The outcomes could influence expectations for Starship's role in expanding Starlink, reducing launch costs, and supporting SpaceX's longer-term growth opportunities.

SpaceX wants FCC approval for up to one million satellites while a new physics paper argues that constellations above a certain size generate their own runaway debris problem, and regulators may be asking entirely the wrong questions.

Rival satellite operators are raising collision risks, according to SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction). SpaceX said Starlink came close to about 650 different third-party satellites that were maneuvering in 2026, and only about half of them shared trajectory information. At the same time, 3DTested reports SpaceX has asked the FCC to approve up to one million satellites.

A New Paper Explains Challenges Of “Satellite Constellations” On 31 July 2026, Hugh G. Lewis, a space sustainability expert and professor of astronautics, posted “Critical Sizes of Satellite Constellations” to arXiv. Weeks earlier, Lewis told Space.com that SpaceX was doing an excellent job managing orbital traffic.

Lewis also warned: “I think we’re heading towards a situation where there will be a collision involving an operational satellite… It will be in spite of all those maneuvers.”

Lewis finds that several constellations, whether planned, partly deployed or fully deployed, are above their critical size. Above that size, the debris population becomes unstable or runs away. Lewis writes that this happens for small and large constellations alike, even with mitigation that goes beyond accepted good practices, and even in a pristine, debris-free environment. A constellation above its critical size can create its own debris problem.

Lewis argues that regulators judge risk from single satellites and ignore the combined risk of a whole constellation. Lewis calls for “more stringent approaches to regulation.” The paper names no constellations, so it does not say which systems are over their critical size. Critical size is specific to each constellation, so there is no single threshold to hold SpaceX’s plan against. Finally, the paper is a preprint, and we could not confirm that it has been peer reviewed.

What SpaceX Is Proposing 3DTested reports the filing covers altitudes of 500 km to 2,000 km, in shells up to 50 km thick. 3DTested also quotes the filing calling the project “a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization.” Reporting says the filing describes no specific debris-mitigation measures. Elon Musk promoted the plan as needed for AI power demands. KeepTrack counts 11,137 Starlink satellites still in orbit.

How a Debris Cascade Works The Register notes that NASA scientists, including Donald Kessler, proposed the cascade scenario in 1978. Crowding makes collisions more likely, and the debris from each collision causes more collisions. Some orbits could become unusable for decades. The European Space Agency describes the February 2009 collision between Kosmos 2251, a defunct Russian satellite, and Iridium 33, an active satellite in the network run by Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM). The European Space Agency, via CNN, says that crash created thousands of pieces of debris. It showed how the mechanism works, but no cascade has happened. CNN reported in January 2025 that tens of thousands of trackable pieces of space junk orbit Earth.

Critics Warn of Compounding Risk In a March Scientific American column, Phil Plait warned that multiplying satellite numbers by a factor of thousands could make the threat “apocalyptically worse.” In May, Plait told readers to watch out for of tech bros who treat the Kardashev scale as the “be-all and end-all,” calling that view “profoundly limited and limiting.” Plait, who says he supports space exploration, credits Musk with having “truly revolutionized rocketry.” He adds that Musk’s predictions tend to be “several years off the mark.”

SpaceX Points to Unshared Trajectories Teslarati reports that over six months, Starlink recorded about 164,000 close approaches in which the closest point came within four hours of another satellite’s unannounced maneuver. Aerospace Global News reports that in August, a Starlink satellite came within 134 meters of another spacecraft and had to turn its solar arrays edge-on. Aerospace Global News also reports that in October 2025, another spacecraft briefly put itself on a course within 57 meters of a Starlink satellite. SpaceX says many of the satellites that did not share data were run by Chinese organizations, though it says the problem goes beyond China and Russia. Our sources do not verify that claim. SpaceX calls keeping maneuver plans private counterproductive and offers a free data-sharing platform.

On a separate measure, Space.com reports that Starlink satellites made over 355,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers from June 1, 2025 to May 31, 2026.

Musk’s Remarks Over Time In December 2021, when Starlink was far smaller, Musk said “a couple of thousand satellites is nothing.” In November 2024, Musk replied “Exactly” to a post saying 10 times as many spacecraft would not be a challenge. In March 2026, Musk argued that space is so vast the satellites would be spread far apart. No source shows him speaking directly about a cascade.

Crowding also has other sources. IBTimes reports China has a separate plan for a 200,000-strong fleet, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is building its own constellation.

Single-Satellite Rules Face a Constellation Test The FCC review tests Lewis’s argument that rules built around single satellites fail to judge a whole constellation. The company asking the industry to share data is also planning to add the most satellites.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, with assets under management between $100 billion and $125 billion.

Dalio is no longer the CEO, but given his success with Bridgewater, he's one of the most respected investors in the world. He’s also known for macroeconomic investing, including his focus on debt cycles, and geopolitical and market risks.

When Dalio makes a prediction, investors tend to listen, and he just made a bold statement about the AI boom.

Image source: Getty Images. Image source: Getty Images.

Ray Dalio thinks the AI bubble could be burstingSpeaking at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore this past week, Dalio commented on the massive amount of debt being taken on to fund AI growth, including data centers.

The billionaire called the current AI situation a "classic bubble," and pointed to rising interest rates and the need for investors to convert paper gains into cash as a potential source of pressure on AI stock valuations. Dalio believed rising rates could cause the bubble to pop, adding, "We're in the part of the cycle that is before that but approaching that. I think we're close to that."

Bond yields have risen around the world due to a range of factors, including higher energy costs and inflation, resulting from the war in Iran.

Dalio also noted that wealth taxes, such as the one proposed in California, could lead wealthy investors to convert stock gains into cash.

Where is the debt bubble coming from?The four big hyperscalers, Amazon (AMZN +3.29%), Alphabet (GOOG +0.87%) (GOOGL +0.97%), Microsoft (MSFT +2.38%), and Meta Platforms (META -0.31%), are set to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures this year, with much of that going to AI-related investments like chips and data centers.

As the chart below shows, with the exception of Microsoft, all of these companies have added over $200 billion in debt over the last year.

AMZN Total Long Term Debt (Quarterly) data by YCharts

However, these companies are hugely profitable and have market caps in the trillions of dollars. They can afford to make such moves on their balance sheets.

The larger risk facing the market may be from the newer wave of AI companies, which includes Anthropic, OpenAI, and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.25%), or SpaceX.

Though these companies are chasing valuations in the $2-trillion range, they are not consistently profitable, meaning their borrowing comes with significantly more risk.

Anthropic has committed to $518 billion in future cloud, computing, and AI infrastructure spending, with 80% of that being non-cancellable. OpenAI, meanwhile, has $665 billion in similar spending commitments.

SpaceX is the only one of the three that is currently publicly traded, and even after raising $86 billion in its IPO, Elon Musk's space company has wasted little time in raising more cash.

SpaceX's big plansSpaceX has transformed over the last year after acquiring xAI, and the company is not currently profitable and needs funding to support its blockbuster ambitions, which include launching data centers into space and eventually colonizing Mars. It also aims to reach 10 gigawatts (GW) of computing capacity by the end of next year, which represents roughly $350 billion to $600 billion in infrastructure costs. 10 GW is also enough to power 7.5 million to 10 million homes.

Following its IPO, the company raised $25 billion in new debt and is now seeking another $40 billion, according to Financial Times. The company's debt raises are likely to continue as Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas predicted that it would raise an average of $80 billion in debt annually through 2035. We've never seen a company that demanded that kind of financial leverage.

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Will SpaceX pop the bubble?I don't necessarily agree with Dalio's statement that we're approaching the bursting of the bubble. Growth is still strong in the chip sector and among hyperscalers, and AI adoption is clearly scaling, as evidenced by the recent success of Meta's Muse AI personal agent.

However, if the bubble does burst, I think SpaceX will be the first domino to fall. The company has unprecedented ambitions, but little ability to self-fund them. It doesn't have much debt now, but that could change considerably in the next year.

If the company remains unprofitable and interest rates continue to go up, as Dalio predicts, the pressure on SpaceX is likely to mount, and that could spell trouble for broader debt financing in the AI sector.

Famed growth investor Cathie Wood has been a longtime fan of Elon Musk and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.25%). She gained renown for spotlighting Tesla before it exploded into the trillion-dollar company it is today, and her firm, Ark Invest, sold private access to SpaceX before it went public.

For the first time since SpaceX went public in June, Wood cut her position by roughly 55,000 shares. What does that mean for retail investors?

Why Cathie Wood loves SpaceX Cathie Wood and her team have written many pages extolling SpaceX and its part in the "space economy," and they're bullish on the company's Starlink satellite broadband business. Starlink is the dominant industry player, and it's growing quickly. It's also the only SpaceX segment that's profitable.

Ark Invest's Cathie Wood. Image source: Getty Images.

The firm estimates that reusable rockets will create a $160 billion market opportunity, and it embraces the idea of putting data centers into space, which it says will be 25% less costly than on Earth. SpaceX's rocket-launching business is still unprofitable, but Ark envisions costs decreasing and revenue increasing over the next several years. SpaceX revenue increased 29% year over year in the second quarter.

In the second quarter, Starlink revenue increased 66% year over year, and operating income rose 79%. Subscriber count doubled to 12 million, and Starlink now has more than 11,000 satellites in space, about two-thirds of all satellites in space, and is powering broadband Internet across the world. It has signed deals with major airlines for in-flight web access, including American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Virgin Atlantic. It has contracts with the U.S. government for secure satellite services.

SpaceX's position in Ark Invest's ETFs Ark Invest has positions in SpaceX in four of Wood's exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and its venture fund:

Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF, 6.9% Ark Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETF, 9.1% Ark Next Generation Technology ETF, 4.4% Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF, 11.8% Ark Venture Fund, 7.1%

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On Oct. 6, Ark Invest sold 54,873 shares of SpaceX stock from the Next Generation Technology ETF, or 0.4% of its position. That's a tiny amount of what the ETF owns, and it doesn't indicate any decline in its confidence in SpaceX.

In general, when Ark Invest sells a stock like this, it's doing some reshuffling. It might need to rebalance the portfolio in response to stock movements, or it might need some cash for another opportunity.

SpaceX is one of Ark Invest's largest positions, and it's unlikely the fund manager will sell much of the stock, but I'd still keep an eye out for further sales.

A larger or repeated sale would be a different signal, particularly if it came alongside any slowdown at Starlink, which is still carrying the company’s profitability while rocket launches and the AI business lose money.

Elon Musk says SpaceX could one day be worth vastly more than Earth's economy. Here's what that would take. By You're currently following this author! Click to unsubscribe from email alerts.

Elon Musk is known for making outlandish predictions. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Elon Musk is known for having planet-sized ambitions, and his latest pronouncement lives up to that billing.

"This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy," the Tesla and SpaceX CEO wrote in a Thursday post on X.

The International Monetary Fund projected in April that the total value of world output, measured at market exchange rates, would hit $126 trillion this year.

SpaceX had a $2.2 trillion market capitalization at Thursday's close, meaning the global economy is worth roughly 57 times more.

Musk's vision of SpaceX becoming at least two orders of magnitude — 100 times — more valuable suggests it will one day have a market cap in excess of $12 quadrillion.

All else being equal, SpaceX's stock price would have to rise 5,500-fold to achieve that valuation, meaning $1,000 invested today would skyrocket in value to $5.5 million.

This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 8, 2026 Musk elaborated on his statement in a Friday post.

"'Seeing a path' is not a statement of extreme confidence that we will achieve that outcome," he wrote. "Just means that I believe there is such a path and the probability of achieving it is not zero."

SpaceX's revenue amounted to $7.8 billion in the second quarter, up 92% from the same period last year. The maker of rockets, spacecraft, and satellites recorded a $541 million net loss, down from $1 billion 12 months earlier.

Musk told Wall Street analysts in August that SpaceX was internally projecting $1 trillion of revenue in 2030, and there was a "non-zero chance" it could reach that milestone in 2029.

But even if the company hits that mark, then grows revenue 100-fold from there to $100 trillion, that would still be less than 1% of the minimum company valuation Musk envisions.

"I guess his idea is that SpaceX will open up new colonies or human civilizations beyond the Earth, and thus tap into minerals, energy, and growth beyond what we are capable of with the finite resources we have available to us here," Russ Mould, AJ Bell's investment director, told Business Insider by email.

Yet there are likely to be "considerable risks and obstacles" when it comes to operating in space or on other planets, he continued, "not to mention considerable expense."

Those challenges mean that an investor using a discounted cash flow to value SpaceX today should apply an "extremely high" discount rate to those potential cash flows, Mould said, so the "theoretical value of SpaceX equity may not be as high as some might think."

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, echoed Mould's point about SpaceX likely having to spend huge sums to travel to other planets and capitalize on their resources.

"What he doesn't say is how much it will cost to get there!" she told Business Insider by email.

Other analysts took a more measured view.

"Musk is a believer and a stargazer!" Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, told Business Insider by email, adding that SpaceX stock could be seen as a "bet on the future of mankind."

He's "obviously overegging it," Wilson continued, before noting that "even a tiny fraction of that amount makes SpaceX incredibly valuable."

However, Wilson added that SpaceX is "massively exposed to AI bubble risk and relies on the debt financing bandwagon to keep rolling."

He recommended investors treat the X post as a "bit of classic Musk hype and theatre," and instead "focus on what's going on under the hood."

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Theron Mohamed You're currently following this author! Click to unsubscribe from email alerts.

Theron Mohamed is a London-based correspondent on the International team at Business Insider. His coverage spans finance, investing, wealth, markets, and the economy.Theron joined BI in 2019 as a reporter at Markets Insider and rose to the rank of correspondent before moving to the Trending team then the broader International team. He previously covered tech, media, and telecom stocks for Investors Chronicle magazine and had a brief stint on the Financial Times' Data team. He interned at the Wall Street Journal in New York where he primarily wrote for Heard on the Street.Theron has freelanced for The Independent, The Telegraph, WIRED, and several smaller publications. He holds an undergraduate degree in geography from the London School of Economics, and a master's degree in journalism from Columbia University.Theron often covers Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and other elite investors. He also writes about the world's wealthiest people and shares financial advice from all manner of rich and successful people.Email Theron at [email protected] and follow him on X @theron_mohamed.

Finance Elon Musk SpaceX More GDP Billionaires Stocks Investing

Galvin Gaustad & Stein LLC bought a new stake in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm bought 16,843 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,541,000.

Other institutional investors have also modified their holdings of the company. Grove Bank & Trust purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the third quarter worth approximately $344,000. Wisconsin Wealth Advisors LLC purchased a new position in SpaceX in the 3rd quarter valued at $929,000. Sapient Capital LLC acquired a new position in SpaceX in the 3rd quarter valued at $3,541,000. Atwood & Palmer Inc. raised its position in SpaceX by 239.5% during the 3rd quarter. Atwood & Palmer Inc. now owns 567 shares of the company’s stock worth $86,000 after buying an additional 400 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Artemis Investment Management LLP purchased a new position in SpaceX during the 3rd quarter worth $19,385,000.

SpaceX News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: SpaceX agreed to acquire nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum licenses from Grain Management, giving Starlink a path to expand into indoor cellular coverage and compete more directly with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. The deal remains subject to final FCC approval. SpaceX Acquires Nationwide Spectrum Licenses Positive Sentiment: The FCC approved SpaceX’s next-generation Starlink Mobile constellation of up to 15,000 satellites and waived a ground-carrier leasing requirement, strengthening the company’s direct-to-device strategy. FCC Approval for 15,000 Starlink Satellites Positive Sentiment: American Airlines plans to install Starlink internet on more than 1,000 aircraft, adding a substantial commercial customer and supporting recurring connectivity revenue. American Airlines to Add Starlink Neutral Sentiment: Elon Musk said he sees a path for SpaceX to reach a valuation in the “tens of trillions,” a bullish long-term forecast but one that offers no near-term financial guidance. Musk’s SpaceX Valuation Prediction Negative Sentiment: Reports that SpaceX may raise approximately $40 billion in loans and bonds to purchase Nvidia AI chips intensified concerns about leverage, capital allocation and the risk of spending heavily before AI-compute demand and returns are proven. Credit-default swap costs reportedly reached record levels. Apollo and Banks Discuss SpaceX Financing Negative Sentiment: Up to 328.4 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale on October 9, creating a potential increase in trading supply and selling pressure. SpaceX Share Unlock Negative Sentiment: Starlink’s India launch remains stalled amid a public dispute with local telecom interests and regulators, delaying access to a major potential market. Starlink India Launch Dispute Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades Several analysts have recently weighed in on SPCX shares. UBS Group reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of SpaceX in a report on Tuesday, September 29th. William Blair reissued an “outperform” rating on shares of SpaceX in a report on Friday, September 11th. New Street Research raised SpaceX to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Thursday, June 11th. Mizuho started coverage on SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $200.00 target price on the stock. Finally, Cfra started coverage on SpaceX in a research note on Friday, June 12th. They set a “sell” rating and a $115.00 target price for the company. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-seven have assigned a Buy rating, nine have issued a Hold rating and six have issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $219.77. Check Out Our Latest Research Report on SpaceX

Insider Buying and Selling In related news, COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 22nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.57, for a total value of $52,547,046.90. Following the sale, the chief operating officer directly owned 2,472,035 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $379,630,414.95. This represents a 12.16% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

SpaceX Stock Performance Shares of SPCX stock opened at $160.57 on Friday. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $143.95. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, a quick ratio of 4.99 and a current ratio of 5.12. The firm has a market capitalization of $2.12 trillion and a PE ratio of -1,784.11. SpaceX has a 1 year low of $104.83 and a 1 year high of $225.64.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.26) by $0.17. The firm had revenue of $7.81 billion during the quarter. SpaceX’s revenue was up 91.9% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, equities research analysts predict that SpaceX will post 0.09 earnings per share for the current year.

About SpaceX (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems designed to reduce the cost of access to space and support commercial, government and scientific missions.

SpaceX’s primary products and services include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starlink satellite internet network. The company also is developing Starship, a fully reusable launch and spacecraft system intended for missions to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars.

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SpaceX founder Elon Musk on Thursday took a shot at Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, a day after he accused certain "oligarchs" of stalling the launch of his company's Starlink internet service in the country.

Musk said Starlink was not being allowed to launch in India despite having spent "five years complying with every single law and requirement" of the government.

"Is Ambani the real boss of India?" Musk questioned in a post, having blamed a day earlier "oligarchs" in the country for maintaining a "monopolistic chokehold on the Indian people."

Ambani's Jio is the largest telecom and internet service operator in India and, along with the other major operator, Airtel, controls about 80% of the market.

Musk's comment against Ambani caused a political stir in India, eliciting a response from India's leader of opposition, Rahul Gandhi, who has consistently alleged that the government is being influenced by powerful businessmen in India.

"Wait till you meet the other one," Gandhi said in a veiled reference to India's wealthiest businessman Gautam Adani, who has been a key target of the politician. "This is indeed troubling," Musk said in response to Gandhi.

Reliance Industries, Ambani's flagship company, did not respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Frozen approvalsIn March last year, Starlink signed pacts with Ambani's Jio Platforms and India's second-largest telecom company Airtel to explore cross-selling the products and services of the U.S. company in India.

Following the interim deals, Musk's satellite internet business in July last year got a license to launch its services in India.

But Starlink could not launch. Bloomberg reported earlier this year that New Delhi had frozen approvals for Starlink over concerns that its terminals could be used despite the service not being licensed.

Meanwhile, Akash Ambani, the son of Mukesh and managing director of Jio Platforms, told shareholders in June that his company was planning to roll out low-orbit satellite communications in the country.

Jio is looking to set up set up a satellite network of around 1,600 LEO satellites and 23 ground stations to expand connectivity across India, according to local media reports. Starlink, on the other hand, has 11,000 satellites in orbit that provide service to people in over 170 countries and territories.

Akash Ambani on Thursday told Moneycontrol, a platform owned by the Reliance Group, that the company believes "India needs its own indigenous stack of technologies."

Satellite communication is not the only space where Musk's business plans in India have failed to take off. Tesla, which was launched last year in the South Asian country, has received an underwhelming response, with the company reportedly selling just a little over 1,000 cars since launch.

SpaceX is quietly renting computing power to the very companies trying to outcompete its own AI chatbot, and the landlord strategy is pulling in billions. The question is whether Google and Anthropic will keep paying rent or build their own…

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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) runs two AI stories in opposite directions. Its Grok chatbot trails the leaders. A Momentic Marketing report published August 18, 2026, built on May 2026 Similarweb data, ranked Grok fifth of seven major assistants by worldwide web visits, behind ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and DeepSeek, and found it lost worldwide share over the past quarter. SpaceX rents computing power to Grok’s rivals. Gwynne Shotwell said on the August 4 earnings call:

“We’re rapidly expanding our compute capacity to meet our own needs as Grok expands, as well as those for other leading companies such as Google and Anthropic.”

Shares traded at $164.47 this morning, down 1.87% on the day and up 11.17% over the past month.

What SpaceX Actually Sells in AI The AI unit bundles cloud compute, Grok development and the X platform. It brought in $2.56 billion in Q2, up 247% from a year earlier. AI Solutions & Infrastructure generated $2.194 billion, while advertising declined to $367 million. Starlink’s Connectivity unit led at $4.29 billion. Launch services brought in $962 million.

Cloud Services Agreements total $14.1 billion in signed sales, with the first phase contributing $1.6 billion of incremental AI infrastructure revenue in the quarter.

Landlords Collect Rent Whoever Wins A landlord collects rent regardless of which tenant wins. Elon Musk suggested Grok will occupy only a minority of SpaceX’s compute:

“I would expect maybe 10% of our compute to be used for grok training, something like that.”

Management claimed a less than one-year payback on new capital deployments for compute. The AI segment’s adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time at $1.1 billion.

SpaceX joins Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) as GPU landlords. Much of Oracle’s backlog is attributable to OpenAI. CoreWeave’s revenue has historically come mostly from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and OpenAI, Hyperframe Research noted.

Capital Costs and Concentration Could Break the Model Q2 capex hit $18.37 billion, with $15.83 billion for AI computing power. Management said the next two quarters to be very similar to the current quarter from a CapEx level perspective. The AI unit posted a $1.3 billion operating loss, and the company lost $541 million overall.

The tenant list is concentrated. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) runs its own data centers. If Google and Anthropic build sufficient capacity, they stop leasing. Musk said SpaceX expects a very small percentage of its chip supplier’s GPUs next year. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 200, leaving little room for disappointment.

Next Quarterly Report Will Test the Landlord Thesis Management signed an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over six months starting in October. The next quarterly report should push AI Solutions & Infrastructure revenue above $2.194 billion, Cloud Services Agreements above $14.1 billion, and capacity above 1.4 GW on track for over 2 gigawatts by year-end. If all three occur, the landlord thesis holds. If infrastructure revenue stalls while AI capex stays near $15.8 billion quarterly, it breaks.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

One of the stocks investors are most excited about right now is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.51%). The artificial intelligence (AI) and space stock has caught investors' imagination about what the future could hold. With $5,160, you can buy 30 shares.

SpaceX offers a combination of substantial near-term and long-term opportunities. In the near term, the company has become one of the premier ways to play the cloud computing market. By acting as a bridge provider, renting out compute capacity on a short-term basis, SpaceX is getting superior economic returns. While it takes Amazon two to three years to break even on its chip and network investments, SpaceX is getting a payback in one year.

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Expect this to be the company's biggest revenue growth driver during the next three years. It's already set to potentially more than double the graphics processing units (GPUs) used by its Colossus 2 AI chip cluster, and it recently agreed to rent out $1.1 billion a month in compute capacity to an unnamed customer. Meanwhile, Anthropic recently revealed that it has agreed to lease $1.25 billion a month in computing power from SpaceX over the next three years. In addition to AI infrastructure, SpaceX should see solid growth from both its satellite internet service, Starlink, and its recently acquired AI coding platform, Cursor.

A SpaceX investment is more about the growth it will see in the next three years, though. The company has some huge potential long-term opportunities associated with its space business. Chief among these are data centers in space, which would solve the big energy consumption issues related to AI infrastructure. It is also looking to create new industries, such as terrestrial cargo transport and asteroid mining. If SpaceX can transform Starship into a fully reusable rocket, it will drastically lower launch costs and make these projects much more economically viable.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is a unique stock that undoubtedly will trade at a premium due to the promise it holds. However, I think one of the best ways to value the stock in the near to medium term is to use past price-to-sales (P/S) multiples of Tesla when it was still in its early stages as a public company. A couple of years after Tesla went public, in late 2011, it was trading at a P/S of about 12.

The current analyst average revenue forecast for SpaceX is that it will generate $293.9 billion in revenue in 2029, and at the end of last quarter, it had roughly 13.2 billion shares outstanding. That could prove low, and the highest analyst estimate for that year is about $465 billion. Place a P/S multiple of 12 on the stock based on the average estimate, and it would trade at about $267, or more than 50% higher than today. At the high end of the estimates, it would trade at about $423.

However, let's assume that in three years, investors start looking a couple more years out toward 2031 revenue estimates, given the company's huge expected revenue growth. Place an 8 times forward P/S multiple on the $829.1 billion 2031 revenue forecasts, and the stock would be worth $502 in 2029. Meanwhile, at the high end of 2031 estimates (more than $1.1 trillion in revenue), it would trade near $675.

Taken altogether, that values the stock at a wide range between $267 and $675 in the next three years. At the low end, a $5,160 investment would be worth about $8,000, while at the high end it would be worth $20,250. If we take the midpoint, the stock would trade at about $470, good for about a 275% gain, and a $5,000 investment would be worth around $14,000.

The next few years for SpaceX are going to be all about revenue growth and execution, as well as what valuation multiple the stock can command. That said, SpaceX has the potential to be a huge performer over the next three years.

Love him or hate him, Elon Musk is one of the most successful corporate executives in recent memory. And that's part of why his latest public company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.51%), was able to hit the market at an eye-popping valuation of $1.77 trillion, based mostly on investor expectations for its future performance. But will the stock keep rising from here, or does it need more time to cool off?

Let's dig deeper into the pros and cons of SpaceX to see if it can live up to these lofty expectations and decide if it is a good buy in October.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company has several key moats Elon Musk is famously not a fan of "economic moats" -- a term popularized by Warren Buffett that refers to a company's advantages that make it difficult for rivals to compete. Instead, Musk prefers to focus on the pace of innovation, which he believes is a more sustainable way to fight off rivals. It remains to be seen which perspective will win in the long run, but SpaceX is lucky to enjoy a little bit of both.

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On the moat side, the company boasts substantial vertical integration. As a launch operator that also runs its own hugely profitable satellite business, SpaceX can speed up the deployment of its constellations while reducing launch costs. These advantages are magnified by the fact that the company manufactures much of its own hardware in-house.

SpaceX is also leading in its pace of innovation. Last month, the company launched its Starship rocket into orbit, an important milestone on its path to full commercial operation. Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket ever created, and despite engine issues, it deployed 26 Starlink satellites, demonstrating the economies of scale that SpaceX can unlock through the sheer size of its launch vehicles.

Is AI the next big thing for SpaceX? SpaceX is more than just a launch and satellite company. And over the long term, it aims to leverage its space business to tackle what could potentially be an even larger opportunity in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The goal is to bring data center computing capacity to space where it can benefit from virtually limitless energy, superior cooling, and laser connectivity.

While the idea initially looked like science fiction, SpaceX seems to be seriously trying to make it work. The company has recently begun launching Google's AI Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) into space. And it is scaling up its own "space chip" business through its "gigasat" factory in Bastrop, Texas, designed to produce 1 gigawatt (GW) of space-based AI compute capacity annually when it is completed in late 2027.

Over the long term, Musk believes he can scale orbital compute manufacturing to 100 GW per year. And if all this works as expected, it could give SpaceX an incredibly deep and complex moat in the AI infrastructure business.

On the surface, SpaceX looks like a fantastic company. And its extremely ambitious goals are already translating to meaningful operational results, with second-quarter revenue jumping 92% year over year to $7.8 billion. The company also has a clear path to profitability, after operating losses shrank from $1.94 billion to just $143 million.

On the other hand, the stock remains wildly expensive. And with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 200, there is plenty of room for downside if the AI hype cycle slows down or goes into reverse.

In October, taking a small experimental position in SpaceX probably won't hurt. But it might make sense to wait for more information before considering a large position in the stock -- especially if you see the current AI boom as unsustainable and primed for a slowdown.

Společnost SpaceX Elona Muska jedná s bankami a investory o financování až ve výši 40 miliard dolarů, které by měly podpořit masivní rozšiřování její infrastruktury pro umělou inteligenci. Prostředky mají sloužit především k nákupu čipů Nvidia pro datová centra, čímž se firma zařazuje mezi technologické giganty investující desítky miliard dolarů do AI.

Vesmírná společnost SpaceX nejbohatšího člověka světa Elona Muska jedná s bankami a investory o půjčkách až 40 miliard dolarů (zhruba 872 miliard Kč) na nákup čipů od americké společnosti Nvidia. Informovala o tom agentura Bloomberg s odvoláním na informované zdroje.

SpaceX plánuje získat přibližně deset miliard dolarů v bankovních úvěrech a dalších 30 miliard dolarů prostřednictvím půjček od investorů. Na financování se podle zdrojů Bloombergu podílí investiční společnost Pacific Investment Management (Pimco), zatímco podle dřívějších informací listu Financial Times transakci vede Apollo Global Management. Uzavření dohody se očekává v roce 2027.

Peníze mají financovat rozvoj infrastruktury pro umělou inteligenci (AI). Firmy z technologického sektoru a vývojáři modelů AI v současnosti půjčují stovky miliard dolarů na budování a pronájem rozsáhlých datových center vybavených čipy pro provoz systémů AI. Rostoucí poptávka zdražuje pozemky, čipy a zařízení pro výrobu elektřiny, připomněl Bloomberg.

Musk minulý měsíc uvedl, že výpočetní centrum Colossus 2 jeho firmy xAI v Memphisu může do konce roku více než zdvojnásobit počet čipů Nvidia. Centrum má nyní 110.000 čipů GB200 a 440.000 GB300, přičemž další dodávky mají počet dále zvýšit. Apollo již dříve poskytlo xAI financování sedmi miliard dolarů na přístup k čipům Nvidia.

Společnost SpaceX zabývající se vesmírnými raketami či AI vstoupila 12. června na burzu po rekordní primární nabídce akcií (IPO). Ta jí vynesla 85,7 miliardy dolarů. SpaceX před vstupem na burzu uvedla, že v roce 2025 vykázala ztrátu 4,9 miliardy dolarů. Ztrátová divize zaměřená na AI vynaložila 12,7 miliardy dolarů na kapitálové investice. Začátkem letošního roku se firma SpaceX spojila s Muskovým start-upem xAI zaměřeným na AI. Hlavním zdrojem tržeb SpaceX loni byla satelitní služba Starlink.

Nautilus Advisors LLC increased its stake in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) by 153.4% in the third quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 9,297 shares of the company’s stock after purchasing an additional 5,628 shares during the quarter. SpaceX accounts for 0.9% of Nautilus Advisors LLC’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 27th largest position. Nautilus Advisors LLC’s holdings in SpaceX were worth $1,403,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

A number of other institutional investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Syntax Research Inc. acquired a new position in SpaceX during the second quarter worth about $26,000. Atwood & Palmer Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $29,000. PayPay Securities Corp purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $30,000. Marquette Asset Management LLC acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $32,000. Finally, Hickory Point Bank & Trust acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the 3rd quarter worth approximately $30,000.

Analyst Ratings Changes Several equities analysts recently issued reports on SPCX shares. Piper Sandler reduced their price objective on SpaceX from $156.00 to $140.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, August 5th. TD Cowen initiated coverage on SpaceX in a report on Monday, September 28th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $200.00 target price on the stock. Roth Capital upgraded SpaceX to a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, June 22nd. Raymond James Financial downgraded SpaceX from a “strong-buy” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research note on Friday, August 7th. Finally, KeyCorp reiterated a “sector weight” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 28th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-seven have assigned a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and seven have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $218.68.

Get Our Latest Stock Report on SPCX Insider Activity at SpaceX In related news, COO Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares of SpaceX stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 22nd. The stock was sold at an average price of $153.57, for a total transaction of $52,547,046.90. Following the completion of the sale, the chief operating officer owned 2,472,035 shares in the company, valued at approximately $379,630,414.95. This trade represents a 12.16% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

SpaceX Price Performance Shares of SpaceX stock opened at $171.92 on Wednesday. SpaceX has a 1 year low of $104.83 and a 1 year high of $225.64. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, a current ratio of 5.12 and a quick ratio of 4.99. The stock’s 50 day moving average is $141.88. The firm has a market cap of $2.27 trillion and a P/E ratio of -1,910.22.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.26) by $0.17. The company had revenue of $7.81 billion for the quarter. The business’s revenue was up 91.9% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, research analysts expect that SpaceX will post 0.09 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Key Stories Impacting SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target and Buy-equivalent rating, calling SpaceX “cheap and getting cheaper” on a growth-adjusted basis. The firm sees significant potential in AI computing, Starlink, and the company’s ability to address power and chip constraints. SpaceX Stock Jumps on Bullish Morgan Stanley Call Positive Sentiment: Operational milestones strengthened the growth narrative. Crew-13 reportedly reached the International Space Station in a NASA-record time, while recent Starship progress and multiple successful launches support SpaceX’s expanding launch cadence and commercial ambitions. SpaceX Crew-13 Shatters NASA Speed Record Positive Sentiment: Starlink reportedly surpassed 12 million subscribers, providing evidence of continued satellite-internet expansion. Investors are also assigning value to potential AI-compute customers, including reported discussions with Microsoft, and possible chip-manufacturing cooperation involving TSMC. Morgan Stanley and TD Cowen Back SpaceX Neutral Sentiment: Options markets indicate a slower recovery may be ahead. Although SPCX has reclaimed its debut close, relatively subdued volatility and cautious option pricing suggest traders do not expect an immediate return to the post-IPO high near $225. SpaceX Stock Is Taking Off Again Negative Sentiment: A reported plan to raise approximately $40 billion could pressure the stock. The financing may fund ambitious AI infrastructure and space projects, but it also raises concerns about substantial capital needs, leverage, or shareholder dilution. Why SpaceX Stock Is Down After Hours Negative Sentiment: Valuation and near-term supply risks remain significant. Critics argue the stock already reflects considerable Starlink and AI success, while up to 328.4 million shares may become eligible for sale on October 9. The potential increase in tradable shares could create selling pressure after the recent rally. SpaceX Stock Gains Ahead of Share Unlock SpaceX Profile (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems designed to reduce the cost of access to space and support commercial, government and scientific missions.

SpaceX’s primary products and services include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starlink satellite internet network. The company also is developing Starship, a fully reusable launch and spacecraft system intended for missions to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars.

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Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley sees about 75% upside for SpaceX, citing Starship and AI growth catalysts.SpaceX shares jumped about 7.7% on Monday following Morgan Stanley's bullish call.SpaceX-heavy ETFs provide a diversified way to tap into SpaceX's growth story. After reaching highs in the initial days following its mid-June IPO, SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) shares fell sharply, declining about 48% through late July. However, since the start of August, the aerospace company’s stock has turned the tables, rebounding about 58%.

Morgan Stanley’s (MS - Free Report) bullish call on Sunday added to SPCX’s momentum, with shares rising about 7.7% on Monday to their highest level since mid-June. SPCX rose about 0.40% during pre-market hours on Tuesday.

According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, SpaceX is “cheap” at current prices, highlighting potential catalysts, including “future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts,” as quoted on a CNBC article.

With a Buy recommendation, Morgan Stanley analysts have set a $300 price target, suggesting about 75% upside from Monday’s close of $171.09. As quoted on the abovementioned article, Morgan Stanley analysts recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of the next planned Starship test flight and the company’s third-quarter earnings report, which is expected in late October.

What's Driving Morgan Stanley's Bullish SpaceX Call?According to analysts at the investment bank, a successful attempt to catch the Starship upper-stage ship in the upcoming test flight, Starship flight 15, could mark the company’s most significant positive development since its IPO.

Adding to the bullish case for SPCX is the company’s AI business. SpaceX’s AI unit. Elon Musk said on Sunday that it is expected to be named SpaceXSI. It is generating significant revenues by renting out computing capacity. SpaceX’s AI business is gaining traction, with Anthropic and Google already among its major customers and it has signed multibillion-dollar deals. Microsoft is expected to become another key customer.

As reported by Reuters, according to Anthropic’s confidential IPO prospectus, Anthropic is expected to spend as much as $84.5 billion through 2029 on NVIDIA-powered computing capacity supplied by SpaceX’s AI unit.

Into SPCX’s Stock OutlookSpaceX currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.77 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations made by 39 brokerage firms. The current ABR compares to an ABR of 1.83 two months ago based on 35 recommendations.

Of the 39 recommendations deriving the current ABR, 25 are Strong Buy and three are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 64.1% and 7.69% of all recommendations. Two months ago, Strong Buy made up 62.86%, while Buy represented 5.71%, indicating that the majority of the analysts remain bullish.

Based on short-term price targets offered by 35 analysts, the average price target for SpaceX comes to $221.97, ranging from a low of $75.00 to a high of $800.00. The average price target represents an increase of 29.74% from the last closing price of $171.09 (as of market close on Oct. 5). SPCX has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a Momentum Score of A.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Tap Into SpaceX's Growth With These ETFsHere, we have highlighted ETFs with exposure to SpaceX.

Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) has an exposure of 26.76%.

Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX - Free Report) has an exposure of 24.94%.

VanEck Space ETF (WARP - Free Report) has an exposure of 22.38%.

VegaShares Space & AI ETF (XSPC - Free Report) has an exposure of 17.66%.

WisdomTree Space Economy Fund (WSPC - Free Report) has an exposure of 17.7%.

Procure Space ETF (UFO - Free Report) has an exposure of 15.80%.

When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.36%) was preparing to go public, many experts worried that the company's targeted $1.77 trillion valuation was too rich. Most of these experts, however, also believed that the company's Starlink division held great promise.

For example, Jeremy Grantham -- a co-founder of GMO Asset Management and a well-known prognosticator of market bubbles -- warned investors against investing in SpaceX during its IPO.

"In the end, the reality will come out, and this will turn out to be, of course, one of the landmark historical events that I so value in history looking back," Grantham cautioned. "It will be amazing, by the way, if it doesn't collapse, because it will need such massive developments on AI that our entire lives are totally different."

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's stock price has been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride since the IPO, but it remains above its IPO valuation. Grantham predicted possible short-term price appreciation given SpaceX's limited supply of publicly traded shares. "[S]upply and demand being what it is," he said, "it's hard to imagine the price won't go up, and perhaps it will go up a lot."

Grantham was extremely bearish on SpaceX as an investment opportunity. It's perhaps surprising, then, that he was a fan of SpaceX's Starlink division. Here's what he said in a podcast interview this summer:

"Great idea, by the way. Makes money. But this is not Starlink. Maybe I'd be an investor too, if it were Starlink."

Last year, Starlink was the odd bright spot for SpaceX's financials. The division produced $4.4 billion in operating profit off $11.4 billion in sales. SpaceX's other divisions posted operating losses on less revenue.

Starlink's success continued in 2026. Last quarter, Starlink generated $1.7 billion in operating profit. The rest of SpaceX's divisions lost a combined $1.8 billion.

Impressive revenue growth and continued profitability are expected to continue for Starlink. Morningstar predicts the segment will become "a substantial, high-growth business anchored in a focused but meaningful $129 billion global market."

Here's the problem: Starlink won't be enough to double SpaceX's stock price on its own. In fact, Starlink may ultimately be immaterial to SpaceX's long-term potential.

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Here's why Starlink matters for SpaceX, and why it doesn't It's important to understand Starlink within the context of SpaceX's other businesses.

According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the company's total long-term addressable market is valued at $28.6 trillion. Starlink only accounts for $1.6 trillion of that total. Some analysts don't even value the Starlink opportunity that highly.

"The $1.6 trillion TAM figure from SpaceX appears to aggregate the total connectivity market across most countries (excluding China and Russia) and all segments, including wireless, broadband, and enterprise," Morningstar analysts contend. "... We think that this significantly overstates realistic market opportunity for Starlink, as satellite-based connectivity faces physical and technological constraints that are very difficult to overcome in a dense urban environment."

Starlink matters for SpaceX because it helps scale the company's rocket technology through a profitable venture -- profits that can then be redirected to other purposes. What other purposes? Almost exclusively, SpaceX's future hinges on the success of its AI division, which accounts for $26.5 trillion of the company's total claimed $28.5 trillion addressable market.

Starlink's cash flow will help mitigate shareholder dilution and support other growth opportunities. On its own, however, Starlink's success won't move SpaceX's stock price much in the long term. Only the success (or failure) of SpaceX's AI efforts will have a meaningful effect in the years and decades to come.

"Imagine you had $6 million in cash on a pallet flying through the air that's just going to smash into the ocean. Would you try to recover that? Yes, you would." -- Elon Musk, 2017

That's how Elon Musk described the rationale behind Space Exploration Technology's (SPCX +7.36%) plan to deploy boats at sea, equipped with gigantic nets, to catch one (or both) halves of the fairings from its Falcon 9 rockets after they detached to deploy cargo in orbit. Each complete fairing, said the CEO, cost $6 million to build -- or roughly 10% of the cost of an entire Falcon 9. (That was back in 2017. Thanks to inflation, the cost has reportedly risen to $8 million today.)

And so, the CEO's plan:

"My guess is in the next six months we'll figure out fairing recovery. We have a special boat to catch the fairing; it's like a catcher's mitt but in boat form." -- Elon Musk 2018.

Image source: Getty Images.

40 x $6 million / 2 = what? It's been eight years since Musk made this promise. So, how are things going for SpaceX? Well, there's bad news and good news...and better news:

Fairing separation confirmed. Today's mission marks our first 40th flight of a fairing half! pic.twitter.com/j3slt56YN0

-- SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 20, 2026 Over the past six years, Musk & Co. have launched more than 600 Falcon 9 rockets, and deployed probably well over 1,200 fairing halves. (Once split open, each fairing half comes back to Earth separately). The company initially outfitted two boats with gigantic, raised nets to catch the fairings as they parachuted back to Earth. It caught a handful of fairings this way, but abandoned the effort in 2021.

That's the bad news.

The good news is that SpaceX eventually decided it didn't need to catch the fairings, but could simply guide them to a pickup point using thrusters and parasails, then fish them out of the ocean before they sank, refurbish and reuse them. This has been the procedure for the past five years.

And this is how SpaceX was able to announce last week that at least one fairing half has now flown and been reused an incredible 40 times. (Note that this refers to one particular piece of equipment having been used 40 times. Across SpaceX's entire inventory, many more fairings will have been reused many times.)

And here's the best news of all: Just reusing that one specific half of one specific fairing -- which must have cost at least $3 million to build and may have cost as much as $4 million -- saved SpaceX $120 million. That's roughly enough money to build two complete Falcon 9 rockets. The money saved from reusing all the other fairings SpaceX has used over the years may have been enough to build an entire fleet of Falcons!

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What it means for SpaceX As SpaceX has evolved from a company that launches rockets to one that primarily makes its money from the Starlink satellites launched by those rockets, the importance of saving money on rocket parts has dwindled. As SpaceX evolves even further from a company that launches rockets to a company that provides satellite internet to a company that does $26.5 trillion annually selling artificial intelligence services...well, saving $3 million on a rocket fairing will probably resemble, ever more, a rounding error on the income statement.

Still, SpaceX's relentless focus on keeping costs low is a big part of why it can launch payloads at a lower per-kilogram price than any other space company on the planet. It's how it can launch Starlink satellites so economically.

As SpaceX begins saving even more money by reusing entire spaceships (Starship), it will also be able to launch artificial intelligence satellites into orbit more economically.

Starship reaching orbit scrambles the economics for every rocket startup, and Rocket Lab and Redwire are betting on opposite strategies to survive the fallout. Only one of those bets looks smart right now.

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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) and Redwire (NYSE:RDW) posted record second quarters in August on Pentagon demand. Now SpaceX’s Starship has reached orbit, changing the competitive landscape. Rocket Lab is building a rival rocket; Redwire is buying rides from SpaceX. That split matters.

Rocket Lab Builds the Rival. Redwire Buys the Ride. Rocket Lab’s revenue rose 62% to $234.07 million, with backlog reaching $2.36 billion. Space Systems brought in $189.5 million versus $44.6 million from launch. CEO Sir Peter Beck: “The most successful space companies will be the ones that have the keys to space.”

Redwire grew faster. Revenue rose 89.6% to $117.07 million. Edge Autonomy’s Stalker and Penguin drones raised Defense Tech revenue to $61.88 million, which put it ahead of the Space division. A book-to-bill ratio of 1.42 means new orders are still coming in faster than Redwire delivers. Its venture SpaceMD also bought an entire SpaceX Starfall spacecraft for a 2028 microgravity mission. CEO Peter Cannito called it “a game changer.”

Business Driver Rocket Lab Redwire Main Growth Engine Flatellite and GEO satellites Stalker and Penguin drones SpaceX Relationship Competitor via Neutron Customer via Starfall Backlog $2.36 billion $542.1 million Starship Puts a Target on Neutron’s Price Tag Starship is a real threat to Neutron’s pricing. Launching on Falcon 9 already costs about $2,700 a kilogram. As SpaceX gets better at reuse, repairing a rocket could cost roughly 1/100th of building a new one. Rocket Lab prices Neutron at an average of $50 to 55 million per launch, and CFO Adam Spice sees “more upside to ASPs.” I doubt that holds if Starship’s launch pace keeps climbing. Beck says that “launch has never been so constrained,” but Neutron still has to fly, and he admitted that “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.”

Rocket Lab is valued at 57.93 times sales, compared with Redwire’s 6.12. That gap assumes Neutron comes through. Rocket Lab shares sit at $70.46, up just 1% this year and far below their 52-week high of $151. That’s despite a rise today on a record Electron launch deal and a Citi buy rating. Redwire, at $10.58, is up 39.21% this year as drone orders keep building.

Neutron’s Stage Test Could Reset Both Stocks I’m watching Neutron’s stage testing, which Beck called the last major step before first flight. I’m also tracking Rocket Lab’s Q3 revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million. For Redwire, keep an eye on gross margin. Management still guides to the “low to mid-20s”, even though Q2 came in at 27.8%.

Why I Lean Toward Redwire While Starship Scales Redwire fits this moment better. Cheaper launch helps a company buying rides, and its drones sell into NATO demand independent of rocket costs. A quarterly loss of $40.97 million warrants caution.

Rocket Lab is the stronger business with $2.13 billion in cash and an Iridium deal closing in mid-2027. If Neutron flies successfully, I would rethink quickly. Until then, its valuation leaves little room for a Starship price war.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.28%), better known as SpaceX, has been one of the most-watched companies of the year. A few months ago, and after much anticipation, the tech and industrial giant launched the biggest-ever initial public offering, raising $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option and entering the market with a trillion-dollar valuation.

Investors were eager to get in on the company due to its involvement in three high-growth businesses -- and possibly benefit from the innovative spirit of its leader, Elon Musk. But SpaceX hasn't remained at its high of more than $200, and today the pullback sets up a classic buy-the-dip case for long-term investors. Let's find out more.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's businesses work well together We'll start by considering SpaceX's businesses, ones that overlap, allowing for shared strategies, efficiencies, and growth. The company operates a space unit focused on rocket launches, a satellite connectivity business called Starlink, and an artificial intelligence (AI) unit. How do they work together? The space unit's rockets may be used to accomplish the goals of the other two, carrying satellites and eventually infrastructure for data centers to space. And Starlink, the company's major revenue engine, helps fund operations and growth.

SpaceX has big ambitions across its businesses. In space, it aims to significantly bring down the cost of launches through the use of fully reusable rockets. And just this week, it reached a major milestone, sending reusable rocket Starship into orbit with 26 new Starlink satellites. This was the rocket's 14th test flight and first time in orbit.

Starship's ability to transport satellites to space is key to Starlink's growth and, therefore, to the company's overall revenue growth. In the latest quarter, Starlink revenue climbed 65% to more than $4 billion, and that's on a total of $7.8 billion in revenue for the entire company.

"It's not out of the question that at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world's Internet," Elon Musk said in the earnings call, noting that could be less than 10 years away.

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SpaceX's capital spending in AI reaches $15 billion Starship's strength is also crucial for any eventual build-out of data centers in space, something that could be a major revenue driver for SpaceX down the road. Today, SpaceX is pouring most of its capital spending into the AI unit, with the latest AI capex at about $15 billion out of a total of $18 billion. So it's clear that SpaceX must seek to significantly monetize this investment in the future.

SpaceX reported a 92% increase in overall revenue in the latest quarter, but as should be expected from a company investing this much in research, it's operating at a loss. A bright spot is that this loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion in the year-earlier period.

Now, let's consider the stock's performance. SpaceX priced at $135, opened at $150, and in the days that followed its debut, soared to a high of $225. Since, however, it's retreated from that high and now trades around $145. While some investors eagerly rushed to get in on SpaceX for the reasons I mentioned above, others have hesitated to buy -- or have even bought and then sold -- due to the risk that goes along with this investment.

In its prospectus, SpaceX itself even said that some of its goals rely on new technologies that haven't yet been proven, and therefore the timeline to achieve these goals "may be difficult or impossible to determine."

Meanwhile, investors have focused on the significant capex, particularly in the AI unit. All of this may have weighed on appetite for the stock. And it's true that SpaceX isn't the best investment for every investor -- those who are risk-averse or have a cautious investment style are better off looking elsewhere. But for very aggressive investors who aim to hold on for the long term, SpaceX's pullback from $225 sets up a classic buy-the-dip case.

Google and Anthropic are among the customers for SpaceX's terrestrial compute Summary

TD Cowen initiated SpaceX at Buy with a $200 target, expecting terrestrial AI compute leasing to become its fastest-growing revenue stream.

TD Cowen initiated coverage of SpaceX SPCX with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, arguing that leasing terrestrial AI computing capacity will become the company's fastest-growing revenue stream. The target implies about 37% upside from Monday's closing price of $145.47. SpaceX shares were up 1.03% in premarket.

TD Cowen expects AI compute leasing, whose customers include Alphabet's GOOGL Google and Anthropic, to make up the majority of SpaceX's revenue by the first quarter of 2027, driven by a ramp in terrestrial gigawatt capacity. The firm built a gigawatt capacity model covering 2024 through 2031 and a utilization model for the leasing business, alongside a Starlink valuation model and a 90-country analysis sizing Starlink's global opportunity. It also valued the space segment on a standalone basis, assuming all launches are sold as external payloads.

The call joins other bullish views after Starship's recent Flight 14, the first to insert satellites into orbit. Clear Street reiterated a Buy rating with a $217 target after the rocket deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and Mizuho holds a $200 target, matching TD Cowen's.

Disclosures I am/we currently own positions in the stocks mentioned, and have NO plans to sell some or all of the positions in the stocks mentioned over the next 72 hours.

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Bernstein reiterated its Buy rating on SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock on September 28 and maintained its $248 price target, implying roughly 70% upside from the stock’s current price of $146.

The brokerage focused on the long-term growth potential of Starlink’s residential and small-business broadband operation, which analyst Douglas Harned described as a potentially large opportunity for the space company.

Specifically, he expects Starlink’s broadband subscriber base to double again this year after roughly doubling in each of the past four years. That is, the firm estimates that Starlink could reach about 168 million subscribers by 2031, supported by continued expansion into markets where traditional satellite broadband is losing relevance.

“Starlink roughly doubled its broadband subscriber base in each of the past four years and is expected to double again this year. In doing so, it has taken share not only from legacy satellite broadband (SBB) providers, but increasingly from other broadband technologies as well,” Harned wrote.

Furthermore, Bernstein also forecasts approximately $64 billion in consumer and SMB broadband revenue for Starlink in 2031, slightly below its previous $66 billion estimate. This revision, the research note says, reflects an expected decline in average revenue per user as Starlink expands its global footprint and reaches lower-income and less-served markets.

SpaceX stock price 24-hour chart. Source: Finbold SPCX stock will go “Big!”, Bernstein says Bernstein also updated its financial model to account for a faster near-term connectivity buildout. As a result, it raised its fiscal 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimate to a loss of $0.19 from $0.20 previously and lifted its fiscal 2027 diluted EPS forecast to $1.37 from $1.30.

Despite the unchanged $248 target, Harned highlighted downside risks to its Starlink business case, particularly the potential for lower average revenue per user as the service expands globally. 

“While we believe these assumptions are reasonable given Starlink’s long-term plans and compelling operating momentum, there are downside risks, as with any business case,” he added.

Nonetheless, he expects continued subscriber growth and expanding connectivity capacity to support Starlink’s longer-term revenue opportunity, adding that downside risks are present in ever business case.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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