For all the hype surrounding the SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO) and the company’s launch valuation, even investing $100 as soon as possible would have proven a middling investment.
Specifically, SPCX shares were originally offered at $135 and are, at press time on July 8, trading at $149.52 following a 0.033% extended session rise. Under the circumstances, a $100 investment made already at the IPO would have risen to $110.76 for a $10.76 profit.
SpaceX stock price one-week chart. Source: Google Investors who got their hands on SpaceX stock at the beginning of the equity’s first trading day – June 12 – would have seen their position remain effectively flat, while those who purchased on that evening would have lost $7 as the company ended the day at $160.95.
Still, both groups would have been far more fortunate than those who took Jim Cramer’s amazement at the rally as a sign to buy – thus also joining Representative Dan Meuser – and purchased close to the all-time high (ATH) of $225.64.
Indeed, such investors could only be pleased that they hadn’t invested $5,000 or $10,000 in the stock as SPCX shares retraced 33.74%, meaning that $100 would have turned into $66.26 for a $33.74 unrealized loss.
What is next for SpaceX stock price in 2026 Elsewhere, the future of SpaceX appears increasingly uncertain at press time on July 8. Since the IPO, the company’s extreme launch valuation of $1.77 trillion, paired with revenue below $5 billion and the fact that the firm is operating at a loss, presented a substantial long-term risk factor.
More recently, investors might have found themselves alarmed by the fact that SPCX shares failed to see a significant rally even after their official inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 – though it will likely take some time for buying pressure from index funds to be fully reflected in the market.
Nonetheless, even if a renewed rally begins in July as many have been expecting since before the SpaceX launch, the company’s generous unlocking schedule for wealthy insiders could reverse Elon Musk’s corporate rocket once more in August or September.
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%), aka SpaceX, has quickly become one of the most noteworthy stocks to hit the market in some time. The rocket launch, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company saw insatiable demand ahead of its public debut. Despite raising $85.7 billion, the offering was more than four times oversubscribed, according to reports. Put another way, demand was more than four times the available shares.
It's easy to understand why. Investors are looking to get in on the ground floor of a once-in-a-generation company and ride the stock to new heights. After creating reusable rockets, SpaceX has plans to launch data centers into space, which could potentially be a game changer.
One Wall Street analyst called SpaceX "one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century," with more than 400% potential upside, which would push its market cap to more than $10 trillion. Let's take a look to see if he's right.
Image source: Getty Images.
Raymond James says SpaceX is a buy Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage on the stock with a strong buy rating and a Street-high price target of $800. That represents potential gains of 435% for investors compared to Tuesday's closing price.
The analyst believes the commercialization of space travel, combined with the vast potential of AI, is driving "the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet."
The linchpin of Gesuale's bullish thesis is the potential for Starship -- the company's next-generation spacecraft -- to democratize the transport of cargo into orbit. He calculates that Starship will reduce the cost of transporting goods into space by 99%, while increasing payloads "by an order of magnitude."
The analyst draws parallels to other phases of the industrial revolution, including electricity, railroads, and the internet. Starship will be the catalyst that transforms SpaceX "into a transportation network defined by commercial aviation-like operating cadence and continuously declining unit costs."
Gesuale highlights what he calls SpaceX's "powerful infrastructure flywheel," pointing out that its original rocket -- Falcon -- funded its Starlink internet satellite constellation, Starlink is funding the development of Starship, and "Starship enables the next generation of platforms."
The analyst crunched the numbers and estimates SpaceX's revenue will grow from $38.5 billion to $837 billion, a nearly 22-fold increase, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will soar more than 39 times from $17.7 billion to $696 billion.
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Is the analyst right? The analyst's thesis is sound, in theory -- but there's a catch. This flywheel he references only works if SpaceX successfully develops a completely reusable Starship -- and that's a big "if." The heavy rocket is still in development, recently completing its 12th test flight, and there's no "official" timeline for completion.
The other wildcard is the ability to successfully deploy data centers in space. Some experts have highlighted the massive engineering hurdles ahead, including orbital data center design, chips hardened against radiation, and lasers powerful enough to beam the data back to Earth. Failure to achieve any of these critical designs could scuttle SpaceX's future success.
Don't take my word for it. Citi analyst John Godyn has a buy rating and a $200 price target, but has outlined a scenario in which the stock could reach $900. However, that goal is only possible if SpaceX can demonstrate "key engineering milestones" at scale.
If you think nothing can go wrong, I refer you to Tesla's repeated delays in delivering its unsupervised full self-driving capability. CEO Elon Musk originally predicted full autonomy by 2018, with 1 million robotaxis on the road by mid-2025 -- and investors are still waiting.
Don't get me wrong: The potential is certainly there -- and I wouldn't bet against Musk -- but the reality is complicated. It will take plenty of things going right for the analyst's thesis to play out, and only one thing going wrong to scuttle it.
It's also worth noting that with trailing-12-month revenue of $19.3 billion, SpaceX is selling at 102 times sales and roughly 42 times expected 2026 sales. That's a pricey valuation for a company that still faces significant hurdles.
Item 1 of 3 A model of the lunar lander "Resilience", operated by 'ispace', is displayed at a venue where employees of 'ispace' monitored its attempted landing on the Moon, in Tokyo, Japan, June 6, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada/File Photo
[1/3]A model of the lunar lander "Resilience", operated by 'ispace', is displayed at a venue where employees of 'ispace' monitored its attempted landing on the Moon, in Tokyo, Japan, June 6, 2025. ... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
TOKYO, July 8 (Reuters) - Japanese moon transport company ispace (9348.T), opens new tab said on Wednesday it would start a new, lower-cost lunar cargo business using the Starship heavy rocket and moon lander developed by Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab.
Tokyo-based ispace has bought 500 kg (1,102 lb) of capacity for $50 million on a Starship that would land on the moon as soon as 2030, and will build a lunar surface vehicle that can host payloads from clients worldwide sharing their ride on Starship to the moon, it said.
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The new "lunar access integrator" service provides moon-bound "buses" and can complement ispace's ongoing development of dedicated lunar landers, or "taxis", to the moon's surface, said ispace Executive Vice President Hideari Kamiya.
On previous trips to the moon, ispace used SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets for unsuccessful lunar touchdown attempts in 2023 and 2025.
The Tokyo-based company now aims to soft-land three landers, called Ultra, onto the moon by 2030, including a mission that is part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services programme.
While ispace carries on its Ultra missions, the tie-up with SpaceX will "exponentially" accelerate its growth in the lunar infrastructure market, Chief Executive Takeshi Hakamada said.
SpaceX welcomed the expansion of its relationship with ispace to fly missions on Starship, a reusable transportation system which, unlike Falcon 9, includes a spacecraft that Musk's company plans to take to the moon and eventually to Mars.
"Their integration services provide a valuable pathway for smaller payloads to secure a ride to the Moon today, and we look forward to supporting ispace and their customers as they help expand access to the lunar surface," Stephanie Bednarek, SpaceX's vice president of commercial sales, said in a statement.
The relationship is not exclusive. NASA plans to use Starship's first lunar landing in 2028 as part of its Artemis program to send astronauts back to the moon. U.S. lunar rover startup Astrolab has also booked space on a future Starship flight.
"SpaceX approached us first" with the integrator business idea, Hakamada said.
"While we can't rule out other companies entering the market, few might be able to integrate cargo and keep providing services after touching down on the moon."
Reporting by Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Sonali Paul
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Kantaro writes about the burgeoning space industry and a wide range of breaking news stories in Japan. A Tokyo native, he was the recipient of the Overseas Press Club Foundation 2020 Scholar Award.
Equity investors love SpaceX. The bond market, however, is a bit more skeptical.
The initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%) last month was a nearly unprecedented stock market phenomenon. The IPO was four times oversubscribed due to strong institutional and retail demand. The stock opened its first day on the market trading at $150, and in the days that followed, it surged to an intraday high of more than $225. Since then, it has settled back down, and even briefly sank below that $150 level. As of late Monday afternoon, it was trading at around $157 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of more than $2 trillion.
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That keeps Elon Musk's aerospace and artificial intelligence (AI) firm among the 10 most valuable companies in the world.
So, while SpaceX is still deeply unprofitable and probably will be for some time, investors expect strong profits down the road. But the bond market sees things a bit differently.
SpaceX's bonds are not investment grade The company's bonds are trading at an average 1.62-percentage-point premium over Treasuries, a credit spread that puts it in the BB category.
For those unfamiliar with bond ratings, BB corporate bonds trade at an average spread of 1.55 percentage points. The wider the spread, the worse the rating. And BB bonds are technically non-investment grade. The fall into the range also known as "high yield" or "junk."
This is because BB-rated bonds are viewed as carrying a substantial credit risk for their holders. While investment-grade bonds have a historical default rate in the range of 0% to 1.02%, the default rate for BB-rated bonds has been about 4.22%, or four times higher than that of the riskiest investment-grade bonds.
And SpaceX carries a substantial debt load, about $29 billion in long-term bonds.
Image source: Getty Images.
What does that mean for SPCX investors? Well, I think it means that they may be a bit too enthusiastic about the company.
To be sure, SpaceX has a profitable business in Starlink, its satellite internet service. That service generated about 60% of the larger company's $18.7 billion in revenue last year.
But SpaceX's AI division, which also includes social media platform X (formerly Twitter), posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion last year. And SpaceX as a whole posted a $4.9 billion loss for the year.
Of course, when you buy a stock, you are buying rights to a share of its future profits, if there are any. In the case of SpaceX, investors believe those profits could be massive, partly because of Musk's grand visions for it.
The company's initial registration form, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission before the IPO, claims among its missions "to make life multiplanetary," "to understand the true nature of the universe," and "to extend the light of consciousness to the stars." It also said, "to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery and, ultimately, to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets."
I'm not saying Musk won't make progress toward some of those lofty goals, but the bond market is hedging its bets.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%) attracted a lot of buzz heading into what became the largest IPO in the stock market's history. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire, and some investors want to ride the momentum.
While investor enthusiasm has helped the stock stay above its $135 IPO price, it's down more than 30% from all-time highs, and losses could continue to widen from here.
Image source: Getty Images.
The valuation doesn't make sense SpaceX is currently worth more than $2 trillion but generated only $4.69 billion in first-quarter sales. Assuming SpaceX maintains that quarterly revenue rate for the entire year, the stock is easily looking at a price-to-sales ratio above 100.
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And the company is still burning through money. SpaceX reported a $4.28 billion net loss in the first quarter, underscoring the need to raise funds through its IPO and bond sales.
SpaceX gets its high valuation due to Starlink, the potential for data centers in outer space, and, most importantly, Musk himself. The eccentric entrepreneur believes SpaceX can reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028.
Some contracts with tech giants support that possibility. SpaceX reached a multi-year deal with Alphabet that will average to $920 million per month, starting in October. SpaceX will provide AI infrastructure, such as GPUs, CPUs, and memory chips. It also reached a three-year deal with Anthropic that almost reaches $45 billion. Anthropic's deal includes at least 300 megawatts of computing capacity at SpaceX's Memphis data center, with capacity at a second facility as well.
The combined value of those contracts stands at approximately $26 billion per year. A few more contracts like these make the $100 billion figure more realistic, but it's not guaranteed and can take a while.
But for now, SpaceX's valuation is in another orbit from Tesla's valuation. Tesla receives complaints that it is an overvalued stock, yet its 15.4 price-to-sales ratio is much lower than SpaceX's.
Excitement is masking bad fundamentals It's entirely possible that SpaceX reaches $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028, but what if it doesn't? The forecast anticipates that SpaceX will increase its revenue more than twentyfold in less than three years. Even if SpaceX achieves the milestone with Starlink and AI compute contracts, it won't mean as much if net losses continue to accumulate.
The path to $100 billion in annual revenue in such a short time requires perfect execution. While Musk is a brilliant entrepreneur, he has been known to set overly ambitious goals that don't always pan out. We were supposed to see 1 million robotaxis and operational hyperloops by 2020 and a Martian colony by 2024. If Musk's SpaceX projection is woefully off, it will weigh on the stock.
Setting ambitious goals can certainly help a company gain market share faster. It embraces the idea of shooting for the moon and landing among the stars if you miss. However, investors need much more clarity and certainty about a company that burns through billions of dollars each quarter and trades at a price-to-sales ratio above 100.
Musk's involvement in the company and people's desire to be on the ground floor of the next big thing are the major catalysts driving the current stock rally. Starlink's broadband internet services, terrestrial AI infrastructure, and potentially data centers in space may be major contributors in the future, but investors have to look at present fundamentals in addition to perfect-case projections.
Investors can choose from many growth stocks that have better balance sheets and revenue growth rates. Most of the next few years are already baked into SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation, even if it reaches $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028.
One of the most important discussions happening since the Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.72%) initial public offering (IPO), and the one that's perhaps the most relevant to the investing community, is how the IPO impacts index investors.
While the SpaceX IPO was the largest in history and highly oversubscribed, there are plenty of investors out there (like me) who wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole. That gets complicated, however, because many value investors use passive index investing, whether as the main part or just one element, of their investment strategy.
Since SpaceX has landed on the market as one of the most valuable companies in the world, it's going to be added to many indexes and incorporated into funds that track them. In fact, it's already happening; it was added to the Russell 1000 index at the end of June, just two weeks after going public, and funds that track it will have to buy SpaceX stock to reflect that change. As of this writing, two Vanguard exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the Russell 1000, the Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF (VONE 0.52%) and the Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF (VONG 1.30%), do not list it as a component.
Image source: Getty Images.
It's also being fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100, which means the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ 1.88%), one of the world's largest ETFs, will have to include it as well.
With two more high-profile IPOs on the way later this year, they may be changing the landscape for index investors.
Do IPOs change this low-risk investing strategy? Vanguard rates most of its index-tracking ETFs with a four-out-of-five risk rating, which seems high. Its lower risk ratings, though, go to bond ETFs. The higher-risk stock ETFs get a five. That means it sees inherent risk in nearly all of its stock ETFs, and that risk is a feature, not a bug. This may be why.
Passive index investors tend to view the strategy as a low-risk path toward wealth creation. The S&P 500 has gained an annualized average of 11.4% over the past 20 years, and investing in it through a low-cost index ETF, rather than trying to beat it, reduces the risk of owning individual stocks while providing opportunities to grow your money.
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SpaceX is already live, but under current rules, it won't be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 for at least another year. However, Anthropic and OpenAI are planning big IPOs later this year and are likely to become among the most valuable companies right away.
Investors have some time to consider their strategy. Weighted ETFs like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.51%) are by nature growth-oriented, and these heavy IPOs could increase their risk. Investors who rely on them for low-risk qualities may want to diversify some of their holdings into true low-risk vehicles, such as bond or value ETFs. For example, the Russell 1000 value index does include SpaceX, but since it was classified as 90% growth and 10% value, it will only account for a small amount of the Vanguard's Russell 1000 value ETF (VONV +0.20%) weight when it gets included.
The June 12 initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%), better known as SpaceX, shattered the record for the largest Wall Street IPO in history. That was only the beginning of a whirlwind of events for Elon Musk's business.
Just days later, on June 16, SpaceX announced its acquisition of artificial intelligence start-up Cursor for a whopping $60 billion. Then on June 22, the company issued its first bonds, selling $25 billion worth of debt.
These activities illustrate the broader trends occurring across the technology sector. Get ready for a wild ride ahead as tech companies maneuver for dominance in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence landscape.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX demonstrates the mounting price for AI The race is on for leadership positions in the artificial intelligence era. Achieving one will be no small task, as SpaceX's recent moves indicate.
Its acquisition of Cursor demonstrates that it recognizes the importance of creating a robust AI platform -- but it also shows the high costs involved. Cursor is a software development solution built on artificial intelligence that allows users to significantly accelerate programming tasks. It's proven popular, producing over $1 billion in annualized sales last year.
SpaceX is far from alone here. Others in the tech space are rushing to snatch up AI businesses. On June 15, customer relationship management titan Salesforce announced it was spending $3.6 billion to acquire Fin, which provides an AI agent to answer customer inquiries.
Along with acquisitions, AI brings other expenses, particularly related to infrastructure. SpaceX's inaugural bond offering is part of the company's financial maneuverings to position it for the capital commitments to come.
Building and powering the vast server farms required to create and support increasingly sophisticated AI systems requires enormous levels of capital expenditures.
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The tech industry's costly AI pursuit Several businesses in the tech sector are facing the stark reality that AI infrastructure is expensive. Oracle, which provides cloud infrastructure for AI, warned, "We must incur significant capital and operating expenditures to increase our existing data center capacity." To fund its AI infrastructure build-out, Google parent Alphabet recently announced a massive $84.75 billion equity capital raise.
Tech giant Meta Platforms increased its 2026 capital expenditure projection to a range between $125 billion and $145 billion. Last year, its capex to boost its AI capabilities was $72 billion. Wall Street was taken aback by this year's prodigious spending plan, and sold off Meta shares in response. The stock was down by nearly 20% over the past 12 months through July 2.
Accelerating AI costs are hitting many tech companies, even those that aren't directly investing in infrastructure. This year, Uber blew through its annual AI budget in four months, and management is questioning whether the outcomes are worth the expense.
Uber's sentiment extended to Wall Street, where concerns over rapidly rising AI costs led to a tech sector sell-off in June. SpaceX shares, which soared to $225.64 post-IPO, crashed to $147.11 on June 23.
Until clarity emerges on whether all the AI spending is worth it, volatility is likely to persist across the technology sector. While it does, remember that the smart strategy is to keep a cool head and focus on the long-term performance of the tech companies in your portfolio, not their short-term stock oscillations.
Robert Izquierdo has positions in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle, Salesforce, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle, Salesforce, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The temptation to go all-in on a newly public company like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%) that's getting lots of attention is understandable.
Media companies talk the stock up, friends and family wonder whether they should buy it, and the frenzy can lead to share price pops that perpetuate the feeling that a stock can help you strike it rich.
And yet, that's not how people statistically make the most money in the stock market.
Fidelity research shows that contributing 15% of your income over decades to a 401(k) or IRA, which earns an average annual return of about 7% to 10%, is how most people reach $1 million or more.
That may sound boring, but it's far more stable than betting on SpaceX to set you up for life. Here's why it's probably best not to expect SpaceX to make you rich.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is burning through cash with no end in sight SpaceX has some very ambitious goals, like colonizing Mars and launching AI data centers into space. The thing about doing both of those things, though, is that it's extremely expensive. The company's capital expenditures (capex) surged 86% in 2025 to $20.7 billion.
And it's not slowing down. Capex spending reached $10 billion in Q1 2026, indicating SpaceX will spend even more this year than last.
While its rocket business and artificial intelligence businesses are costing it money, there is one profitable business: Starlink. SpaceX's connectivity segment (which is made up primarily of Starlink) had about $11.4 billion in sales last year and $4.4 billion in operating income.
Unfortunately, that's not enough to offset the company's total spending, resulting in a net loss of $1.69 per share in 2025.
One of the big problems with SpaceX stock right now is that in addition to the company burning through cash and having significant losses, its shares are still very expensive. The stock has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 109 right now, compared to the tech sector average P/S ratio of 9.
So, to recap: SpaceX is making big bets on costly tech, its capex spending is ramping up, it's unprofitable, and its shares are very expensive.
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Don't bet it all on SpaceX Look, I understand the appeal of a rocket company. And SpaceX could reduce some of its costs if it achieves certain efficiencies with its Starship rockets. Some analysts project that Starship could cut launch costs by 90% or more compared to its Falcon rockets.
It's also true that SpaceX is doing a good job growing its Starlink business. It now has 12 million subscribers, up from just 2.3 million in 2022. Starlink will likely help SpaceX grow its sales over the coming years and become an even more important part of its business than it is already.
But all of that doesn't cancel out the company's high costs. Nor does it eliminate the inherent volatility most stocks exhibit after a major IPO. Decades of data show that large IPOs typically fizzle out for at least a year, with gains of less than 4% after their IPO date.
All of which means that buying SpaceX today likely won't set you up for life. And if you're tempted to buy some shares right now, it's probably best to wait until the company reports a few quarterly results to see if it's achieving its goals. In the meantime, consider taking the boring route to $1 million by contributing to a retirement account.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.72%) has already set several records in just a few weeks as a publicly traded company.
It was the largest IPO ever, raising roughly $75 billion in its offering, and it was also the most valuable listing ever, valued at $1.75 trillion based on the listing price. It opened at more than $1.9 trillion before soaring to nearly $3 trillion briefly two sessions later.
Now, SpaceX is setting another first. It will be the fastest company ever to join the Nasdaq-100, which modified its rules to allow Elon Musk’s space company to join the vaunted index, accepting SpaceX today, less than a month after it went public.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ 1.88%), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, is one of the largest ETFs in the world with net assets of $490.1 billion. Like the index, the ETF tracks the top 100 non-financial Nasdaq stocks, and that now includes SpaceX.
Image source: SpaceX.
How SpaceX will impact the Nasdaq-100Unlike the S&P 500, which uses a straight market-cap weighting methodology, the Nasdaq-100 uses a modified market-cap weighting one, which takes a company’s float into account. The fund is allocated based on the number of publicly available shares, which makes sense since those are the only shares the ETF can buy.
Currently, only a small percentage of SpaceX stock, less than 5% of shares outstanding, is publicly traded, which means that the space stock makes up less than 1% of the Nasdaq-100 index. However, that will change over time as the company’s staggered lockup periods expire over the next year, allowing investors to sell their shares.
After a year, SpaceX could make up a significantly larger percentage of the Nasdaq-100 if insiders sell their stock and the share price goes up.
Nasdaq-100 ETFs like the QQQ are popular and have a strong track record of outperforming the S&P 500 since the dot-com era.
If you own the Invesco QQQ Trust or another Nasdaq-100 ETF like the recently launched State Street SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq-100 ETF (QNDX 1.80%), you should be mindful of SpaceX’s inclusion; however, with an allocation of less than 1%, it’s unlikely to have a significant impact on the ETF.
Still, since you now own SpaceX through the ETF, you may be less interested in buying the stock directly.
Similarly, SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is unlikely to affect the stock. Index inclusion is a net positive as it forces ETFs to buy the stock, but only $4.3 billion in passive buying was expected for SpaceX as it joins the Nasdaq-100, which is unlikely to move the stock, as it represents just about 0.2% of the stock.
Overall, SpaceX’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 won’t have a significant effect on QQQ or your portfolio, at least for now, but it's worth paying attention to what SpaceX does in the next year, both with its performance and its float, as its impact on the Nasdaq-100 is likely to grow over time.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.83%) joins the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, less than a month after going public. J.P. Morgan, part of JPMorgan Chase, estimates the move could create about $4.3 billion in passive buying by funds tied to the index.
Image source: Getty Images
If OpenAI and Anthropic go public at valuations even close to expected, could they also quickly enter index funds, including the S&P 500? Let's find out.
SpaceX shows the fast path into index funds The biggest catalyst is Nasdaq's new fast-entry rule. Under the updated Nasdaq-100 methodology, the largest new listings can be reviewed on their seventh trading day if their full market value ranks among the top 40 current Nasdaq-100 companies. The companies also need to meet Nasdaq's eligibility rules and have enough trading liquidity.
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Nasdaq may consider both listed and unlisted shares when determining eligibility and ranking, but the company's actual weight in the index is based only on listed shares. So OpenAI and Anthropic could go public at high valuations, but their impact on the index would depend on how many shares are actually listed for trading, not just on their total market value.
The Nasdaq-100 includes large non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. So OpenAI or Anthropic would probably need a Nasdaq listing to follow SpaceX's clearest fast-entry route.
Although SpaceX's fast index entry can be a short-term growth catalyst for the stock, it does not automatically make the stock safer or cheaper. Index funds buy stocks because they meet index rules, not because the business is risk-free or attractively valued.
Upcoming IPOs According to Reuters, OpenAI has already filed confidentially for its IPO and is targeting a valuation close to $1 trillion. OpenAI already has massive scale, with more than 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, more than 50 million paying consumers, and about $2 billion in monthly revenue (as of March 2026). However, the company is reportedly not expected to be profitable until 2030. Hence, although OpenAI's scale could quickly attract index attention, its long profitability timeline may keep valuation risk high.
Anthropic is also moving toward the public market. The company said it has confidentially filed its IPO paperwork. It also raised $65 billion in new funding, giving it a valuation of $965 billion in May 2026. A valuation that large could make Anthropic important to broad-market indexes soon after listing. The funding also shows how much money frontier AI companies need to keep expanding their computing capacity.
Hence, a public OpenAI or Anthropic would give index investors direct exposure to frontier AI model companies, not just the infrastructure companies powering them.
Inclusion in the S&P 500 can be harder The biggest risk is assuming that a company's quick index inclusion can also translate into quick inclusion in the S&P 500. However, S&P Dow Jones Indices, part of S&P Global, recently decided not to loosen its main eligibility rules for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600. So newly public companies will still need at least 12 months of trading history before they can be considered for inclusion in these indexes. They also need to pass S&P's profitability test, which usually requires positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and over the past four quarters combined.
OpenAI still has a long road to profitability. Anthropic's heavy computing needs could also make S&P's profitability screen a harder hurdle.
However, S&P Dow Jones Indices changed eligibility rules for the S&P Total Market Index, S&P Completion Index, and Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. Eligible IPOs can still get fast-track entry into some indexes if they meet the updated float and other requirements. So OpenAI and Anthropic could enter these market indexes soon after going public.
Regulation challenges are also important for investors. According to Reuters, OpenAI seems to be considering giving a 5% stake to the U.S. government. Anthropic also had to disable access to its top-tier models after a U.S. government order limiting foreign access. While these challenges may not prevent either company from entering certain indexes after listing, they may negatively affect IPO timing, valuation, revenue visibility, and post-listing volatility.
SpaceX shows that mega IPOs can quickly enter some index funds, especially through Nasdaq-linked and broad-market products. Investors should focus not only on whether these companies enter indexes, but also on which indexes they enter, how much weight they receive, and whether the businesses can justify their valuations after the first wave of passive buying.
Index-inclusion day is supposed to be a party. Passive funds line up to buy, forced demand meets thin supply, and the newly added stock pops. That is the script. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) officially joined the Nasdaq 100 today, and by lunchtime shares were down 5.65% to $151.35, while the broader Nasdaq 100 proxy QQQ slipped 1.74%. So SpaceX is underperforming the very index it just joined on the day it joined.
Steve Grasso, CEO of Grasso Global, went on CNBC this morning and said the quiet part out loud. Institutional buyers already front-ran this.
What Actually Happened on Inclusion Day Grasso’s read, delivered during the “Morning Call Sheet: AI trade stays strong despite semiconductor pullback” segment, is that flat-to-lower price action at the exact moment forced buyers show up tells you something. Front-running an index add is what it sounds like. Hedge funds and quant desks know weeks in advance which stock is about to get added, they buy it early, and they sell into the passive-fund demand on inclusion day. If the stock does not pop when the buying arrives, it is because someone was there first. Reddit noticed too. r/stocks users landed on the framing “SPCX finally joined the Nasdaq-100. The first reaction was to sell it”, and community sentiment collapsed from a bullish reading of 72 over the weekend to a very bearish 18 by Tuesday morning.
Why $27 Billion Still Has to Chase This Stock The mechanical piece Grasso keeps hammering is the part most retail investors miss. The Nasdaq 100 is float-weighted, meaning your weight in the index depends on how many shares actually trade freely, not on total market cap. SpaceX has a roughly $1.15 trillion market cap but only a sliver of that is public float. Jim Cramer walked through the same dynamic in June, noting that “when SpaceX comes public, it will be weighed like a $225 billion company” and that “as the lockups gradually expire and SpaceX’s float increases, so will its weight within the index”.
Grasso puts a number on the cumulative demand. Roughly $27 billion in notional passive buying will have to be absorbed in tiers over time as each lockup releases and index funds are forced to rebalance up.
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That demand arrives as a staircase, tier by tier, not in a single session.
The Front-Running Tell, and What Grasso Is Doing About It The staircase is why Grasso stays long. He added to his SpaceX allocation, plans to hold longer, expects extreme volatility, and sees a decent chance of a retest of $135 before the next leg higher. It also implicitly admits the easy money got pulled forward. The retail crowd sniffed this out too.
When a third of the float is short and the stock still cannot rally on forced index buying, the short thesis has more weight than the retail bulls wanted to believe. For context on why the underlying business justifies staying engaged through the chop, SpaceX is now a three-pillar company. Falcon and Starship on the launch side, Starlink delivering broadband via approximately 9,600 satellites to customers in 164 countries, territories, and other markets, and xAI, acquired in early 2026, making Grok a core asset.
What This Means for You The tiered demand is real. The forward pull on returns is also real. If Grasso is right about a $135 retest, chasing SPCX at $151 on inclusion day is buying the top of the front-run rather than the bottom of the staircase. Volatility is the price of admission. Grasso’s own positioning, long and adding on weakness, is the shape of the trade for anyone who believes the mechanical bid arrives in waves rather than in a single Tuesday morning bell.
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Brian Dobson and Greg Pendy from Clear Street examine SpaceX's (SPCX) edition to the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Tuesday. The firm initiated SpaceX coverage with buy rating and a $217 price target.
The real headline may be the bank’s expectation that the company can grow revenue at a staggering 91% annual rate through 2030—a forecast that, according to JPMorgan, has surprisingly little to do with selling more rocket launches.
Instead, analyst Doug Anmuth argues launches are simply the foundation for a much bigger business.
The AI Story Hidden Behind the RocketsFor years, investors have viewed SpaceX primarily as a launch company powered by Falcon rockets and Starlink satellites.
JPMorgan believes that narrative is already becoming outdated.
Anmuth says “launch is SpaceX’s core competitive advantage that enables every other part of the business,” with rapid Starship reusability laying the groundwork for an AI infrastructure platform rather than simply a larger launch business.
By 2031, JPMorgan expects Starship launches to ramp from only a handful this year to roughly 5,000 annually, enabling SpaceX to deploy 75 gigawatts of orbital compute as it pursues an addressable market exceeding $28 trillion.
From Connectivity to AIThat shift fundamentally changes SpaceX’s financial profile.
JPMorgan projects revenue climbing from $19 billion in 2025 to $470 billion by 2030, while operating margins improve from negative 14% to roughly 50% over the same period. The driver isn’t simply more launch activity, but what the report describes as a business mix shifting from “Connectivity to AI, first terrestrial, and then orbital.”
Anmuth argues that transition justifies valuing SpaceX more like a next-generation AI infrastructure company than a traditional aerospace business.
Why Launch Still MattersIronically, the bullish AI thesis begins with rockets.
SpaceX has completed roughly 670 orbital launches with a 99%+ mission success rate and has launched more than 80% of all mass sent to orbit since 2023, according to JPMorgan. Those capabilities—and Starship’s rapid reusability—give the company a structural advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate.
That launch leadership, combined with what Anmuth calls SpaceX’s “extreme vertical integration,” enables the company to build not only rockets but also satellites, AI infrastructure and, eventually, orbital data centers faster and more cheaply than rivals.
For investors, that may be the biggest takeaway from JPMorgan’s initiation.
The firm’s $225 price target implies meaningful upside. But the more important bet is that SpaceX’s next decade won’t be defined by how many rockets it launches—it will be defined by what those rockets make possible.
Image via Shutterstock
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.65%) was added to the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opened today, so investors might be surprised to see SpaceX shares fall. When a company's stock is added to an index, it can rise due to passive buying by mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are required to hold the entire index.
So why were SpaceX shares down by 5.2% at 12:45 p.m. ET today?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
It's the math The Nasdaq-100 tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market exchange. But even the funds and ETFs that buy SpaceX stock once it's on the exchange aren't really buying a large quantity of the company. Consider this:
SpaceX raised about $86 billion from its public share offering. But the company was valued at $1.8 trillion at the IPO price. That's less than 5% of the company available to the public. Elon Musk owns much of the balance, maintaining about 46% ownership. Other early investors, institutions, and employees own the rest.
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The company is using a phased lockup schedule to allow those early investors to sell their shares. The first batch of shares will be available for sale after SpaceX reports its second-quarter results, either late this month or in August. Notably, Musk won't be able to sell his shares until June 2027, but there could still be downward pressure on SpaceX shares in the near future from other sellers.
The relatively small amount being bought due to index inclusion, combined with fears that the coming initial lockup expiration will drive the stock lower, has shareholders pressuring the stock today.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
• SpaceX shares are sliding. What’s behind SPCX decline?
Here’s what analysts were saying.
The SpaceX AnalystsBofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein initiated SpaceX stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $235.
RBC Capital analyst Ken Herbert initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a price target of $225.
Needham analyst Ryan Koontz initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $200.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and price target of $246, with SpaceX stock seeing a 64% upside from the current share price of $150.
• For more analyst ratings on SpaceX stock, check out Benzinga’s full coverage here.
Bank of America on SpaceXSpaceX is "paving the superhighway to the stars," Epstein said in an investor note about the space company.
"SpaceX has evolved from a launch company into the foundational enabler of the space economy and the leading provider of space-based applications as a result," Epstein said.
The analyst said SpaceX is able to convert launch and manufacturing into recurring businesses, such as Starlink.
Epstein noted part of SpaceX’s long-term opportunity hinges on Starlink’s commercialization and reusability.
"If achieved, we believe launch costs could decline by an order of magnitude while capacity expands dramatically. If delayed, the timing of many future growth vectors moves materially to the right."
RBC Capital on SpaceXSpaceX has a "proven track record of disruption and innovation," Herbert said in a new investor note on the space stock.
"We believe SpaceX will continue to benefit from its position at the center of two of the most profound investment themes of this generation: the evolution of the space-based economy and AI," Herbert said.
The analyst highlighted Starship as being a key for the company’s future along with Starlink momentum.
"We believe the opportunity of orbital data centers provides SPCX with the chance to deliver a structural and durable cost-of-compute advantage versus any terrestrial competitor."
Herbert said SpaceX is the best mega cap stock for exposure to space and AI.
"The convergence of space and AI represents a unique value-creation opportunity that we believe SPCX is well-positioned to capture."
Needham on SpaceXSpaceX is a leader with a multi-year lead for the space sector, Koontz said in the investor note.
The analyst highlighted the company’s Starlink segment, which had 10.3 million subscribers and $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. Koontz saw more upside from the company’s Starship launch vehicle.
SpaceX’s vertical integration is an advantage that should help with future growth, the analyst added.
"The success in its Space segment is the foundation of the SpaceX competitive moat for its Starlink/Connectivity business as well as AI/Orbital Compute strategy," Koontz said.
The analyst expected SpaceX to target expanding compute capacity by 2x each year.
Cantor Fitzgerald on SpaceXValuing a company that owns the entire tech stack is hard, Canfield said in a new investor note.
"SpaceX is something the market has never seen: the world’s first planetary infrastructure company," Canfield said. "Where prior tech giants owned one layer of the stack — compute, connectivity or distribution — SpaceX owns them all."
Canfield said this is not diversification, but rather "vertical integration at civilizational scale."
"We think investor debate has been anchored to near-term valuation multiples, which misses the central point: a planetary infrastructure company does not compete within existing markets — it defines the cost structure of new ones."
SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is down 4.86% to $152.63 on Tuesday versus a trading range of $147.11 to $225.64 since going public. The stock remains up from the $135 IPO price with shares flat from where they started trading.
Image via Shutterstock
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.65%), aka SpaceX, seized the spotlight well before its initial public offering (IPO) early last month. The rocket launch, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company has captured the public imagination as the company awaits several key hurdles in the coming weeks and months.
The first of these hurdles happened on Tuesday, as SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100. Perhaps as importantly, the mandatory quiet period ended for the 23 investment banks associated with the SpaceX IPO. This kicked off a surge of new analyst ratings and the associated commentary -- and to say the overall consensus was bullish might well be an understatement.
Let's review the prevailing attitude on Wall Street and what a $10,000 investment in SpaceX might be worth in one year.
Image source: Getty Images.
The bulls outnumber the bearsSpaceX closed out the day at about $160 per share on Monday, but Wall Street expects the stock price to go much higher. According to TheFly.com, 19 analysts issued ratings and price targets on Tuesday morning (as of this writing), and the overall conclusion was extremely bullish. Nearly all of the 19 ratings came in at the equivalent of a buy or strong buy, and had a median price target of $250. For those keeping score at home, that represents potential upside of 56% compared to Monday's closing price.
That said, the price targets run the gamut, with the lowest at $131 and the highest at $800. The majority of the ratings -- or 14 of the 19 -- fall within a range of between $200 and $250, representing an average price target of $225, or potential upside of about 40%.
A bearish takeMoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu was the sole outlier on Tuesday, initiating coverage with a neutral (hold) rating and a price target of $131, which suggests potential downside for investors of 18%.
The analyst takes exception to CEO Elon Musk's plans to launch data centers capable of delivering 100 gigawatts (GW) of compute annually by the end of 2029. That total is "an amount that exceeds global in‑service data‑center capacity today and for which sufficient material inputs will not exist in three‑and‑a‑half years," according to the analyst. Zhu goes on to say that there's "simply no credible financial model that can support what is, at the time of this writing, a roughly $2 trillion valuation."
If the analyst is right, a $10,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth as little as $8,733 over the coming year.
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A really bullish takeOn the other end of the spectrum is Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale, who initiated coverage with a strong buy rating and a Street-high price target of $800. That suggests potential upside of 398% compared to Monday's closing price.
The analyst hailed the intersection of orbital access and AI as driving "the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet." He believes the completion of Starship -- the company's next-generation super heavy rocket -- will reduce the cost of space travel and delivering objects into orbit by 99%, while simultaneously increasing payload "by an order of magnitude.” The analyst estimates that SpaceX will grow its revenue 21-fold to $837 billion and its EBITDA by 39x to $696 billion by 2031.
If the analyst's bullish take is correct, a $10,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth nearly $40,000 this time next year.
What this means for investorsSo what will a $10,000 SpaceX investment be worth next year? The truth is that no one can say with any certainty. However, throwing out the outliers returns a consensus stock price of about $225, which I believe is likely closer to reality than the most bullish or bearish takes from Wall Street.
A look at the 30 biggest IPOs of the past 15 years suggests a wide range of possible outcomes by the end of the year, with gains of up to 217% or losses of up to 77%. This could turn a $10,000 investment into as much as $31,700, or as little as $2,300.
To be clear, SpaceX stock has already given investors a sneak peek at the volatility they can expect over the coming year, so the stock won't be for the faint of heart. Furthermore, at 46 times forward sales, SpaceX isn't cheap. For investors who are still compelled to own a stake in SpaceX, I would suggest it be a small part of a well-balanced portfolio.
Even though it's only been public since June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.65%), or SpaceX, has already traded in a wide range in less than a month, from a high of $225.64 to a low of $147.11.
With its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, however, history shows that, on average, companies can expect their stock prices to move in a certain direction. This is what history suggests about whether the next move in SpaceX's stock price is higher or lower.
Image source: Getty Images.
The short-term results of Nasdaq-100 inclusion When a stock is included in the Nasdaq-100, it creates buying activity, as investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds that track that index must own it. But history says that being added to the index is not an immediate, game-changing moment for the company.
According to Barron's, over the last two years, of the 21 companies added to the Nasdaq-100, only six had their stock prices climb in the first week they were added. The average loss for a stock a week after inclusion in the index has been 3.8%.
Looking out a bit further, the good news for shareholders is that the data looks more promising. Stocks averaged a gain of 3.6% one month after being in the Nasdaq-100 and climbed 6.3% after three months.
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The bigger picture for SpaceX SpaceX shareholders will appreciate any type of stock price gain. But as history has shown, inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 won't be a meaningful needle mover right out of the gate.
Instead, it's important to focus on the long-term potential and risks of building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in space. SpaceX is going after what it believes is a $26.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM) in AI. If it executes on capturing as much of that TAM as possible, that is what can lead to the gains current shareholders are hoping for.
Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) just picked up a bullish new voice on Wall Street as Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $235 price objective.
The bank’s analysts argue SpaceX has outgrown its roots as a rocket launcher to become the backbone of the entire space economy.
Analysts said SpaceX has evolved from a launch company into what they called the foundational enabler of the space economy, pointing to the company's reusable launch technology and proliferated space applications as key competitive advantages. BofA said these moats are laying the groundwork for Starship and future applications to drive another paradigm shift in space capabilities.
The bank highlighted SpaceX's ability to convert its launch and manufacturing capabilities into recurring, market-leading applications businesses, most notably Starlink. Analysts described this as a flywheel effect, where launch capacity enables space applications, those applications generate cash flow, and the resulting cash flows fund further infrastructure investment.
BofA said Falcon and Starship launch economics remain the primary drivers behind SpaceX's ability to build high-margin application layers in orbit, even though this dynamic is not directly reflected in the company's financials due to its accounting structure.
Central to BofA's thesis is whether Starship can reach the reliability, launch cadence and cost economics needed to unlock SpaceX's next phase of growth. The bank said much of the company's long-term opportunity, including Starlink v3 deployment and future compute infrastructure, hinges on Starship achieving full reusability.
If successful, BofA estimates launch costs could fall by an order of magnitude while capacity expands significantly. Delays in that timeline would push back many of SpaceX's future growth vectors.
Analysts also pointed to SpaceX's orbital compute ambitions as a source of differentiated upside, framing the initiative as representative of broader option value tied to the company's launch moat, vertical integration and manufacturing scale.
BofA said SpaceX's entry into AI infrastructure and applications markets gives it an opportunity to apply its space positioning to fast-growing, competitive sectors, with other emerging space applications offering additional long-term value contingent on Starship's success.
SpaceX is benefiting from a shift towards AI, with broker calls coming out as the company gets included to the Nasdaq 100. This is setting a price floor for a stock that could be headed for the stars, says Joel Shulman, Founder & CIO of ERShares, whose ETF XOVR holds approximately $246 million in SpaceX exposure.
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 Index Tuesday and many analysts are saying buy the stock. But Nicholas Owens of Morningstar has a sell rating and price target of $62.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseAnalysts are cheering major upside potential for SpaceX, with one calling the company the ‘apex of civilizational ambition’July 7, 2026, 10:16 a.m. ET
Many Wall Street analysts just became free to publish investment recommendations on SpaceX, and they largely offered glowing praise of the company and its goals.
“SpaceX SPCX represents in our view the apex of civilizational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history to make humans multiplanetary,” Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu wrote in a client note on Tuesday, rating the stock at buy with a price target of $255 per share.
Wedbush research analyst Dan Ives recently initiated coverage on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.91%), marking a notable moment for Elon Musk's newly public company. Following SpaceX's historic IPO, Ives published an upbeat assessment emphasizing the company's space industry heritage and its emerging role in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
Ives' analysis frames SpaceX as more than a rocket and satellite operator, highlighting its status as a vertically integrated technology business with recurring revenue streams and strategic depth that could deliver long-term gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why does Dan Ives like SpaceX stock? Ives assigned SpaceX an outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $190. This implies roughly 18% upside from where it closed Monday's trading session. His optimism is supported by a sum-of-the-parts valuation model anchored to fiscal 2028 estimates, projecting an enterprise value near $2.5 trillion.
Central to the thesis is Starlink's potential to mature into a durable profit engine through steady subscription revenue. Interestingly, Ives is not the only analyst on Wall Street who sees game-changing potential from Starlink. Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer also cites Starlink's potential to disrupt the telecommunications industry as a major driver of SpaceX's future growth.
Additionally, Ives sees SpaceX accelerating its participation in hyperscaler AI build-outs. In essence, rather than viewing SpaceX solely through an aerospace lens, Ives emphasizes the company's access to expanding markets that create a diversified growth profile.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
How is SpaceX becoming an AI company? Over the last month, SpaceX has moved aggressively to better showcase its ecosystem, blending its strengths in space exploration with its AI capabilities. The company inked agreements to lease some of its compute infrastructure capacity to Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Taken together, these contracts will be worth up to $82 billion over the next few years. Under these arrangements, frontier AI developers gain instant access to high-performance Nvidia GPU clusters housed in SpaceX's data centers.
Additionally, SpaceX recently agreed to acquire Cursor for $60 billion in an all-stock transaction. Cursor is a coding business that is expected to bring new software capabilities to SpaceX's broader AI portfolio. These moves signal that SpaceX is deliberately aiming to monetize existing AI infrastructure and integrate new talent as the company moves beyond its legacy launch and connectivity businesses.
As Ives points out, these AI-focused deals and acquisitions are not simple side hustles for SpaceX. Rather, these moves have the potential to create measurable synergies that can accelerate progress in SpaceX's rocket launch and satellite businesses.
Advanced coding and development tools from Cursor could be used to streamline software for flight control systems, trajectory optimization, and real-time decision-making during launches. Moreover, the new compute partnerships generate consistent cash flow that will support continued investment in capital-intensive segments like reusable rocketry. On the satellite side, Starlink's constellations are positioned to gain from AI-driven network management and predictive analytics that enhance coverage and data throughput for customers.
These interconnections reinforce a virtuous cycle for SpaceX. AI-driven revenue funds space innovation, while space-derived capabilities across Starship and Starlink can help support ever-larger AI workloads. This deep integration lends support to Ives' bullish case by showing how new revenue opportunities and technological advantages directly bolster the company's established strengths.
Should you buy SpaceX stock right now? Since SpaceX's IPO last month, the stock has displayed notable volatility. In reality, the company still has considerable ground to cover before it could conceivably demonstrate the ability to generate consistent profitability and operational scale across its portfolio. In my view, much of the momentum around SpaceX stock is amplified by the enduring influence of Elon Musk and high-visibility endorsements from influential pundits and analysts like Ives.
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While SpaceX stock may be appealing to investors who find management's ambitions credible, simply investing in the company based on an analyst's initial report is not a strategy that's likely to produce multibagger gains anytime soon.
When weighing an investment in any company, a measured approach focused on the business's fundamental progress rather than endorsements or headlines is always the more prudent path. With this in mind, I think the better approach to SpaceX would be to assess its financial results over the next several quarters and listen to management's forecasts about where the company is headed throughout the AI infrastructure era. There will be many opportunities to invest in SpaceX stock at more reasonable valuations over the long run.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) formally joins the Nasdaq-100 today, less than one month after the largest U.S. market IPO in history.
The index addition will force ETFs and index funds to acquire shares of SPCX, producing billions of dollars of mandatory buying that could cause one of the stock’s most tumultuous trading sessions since its public debut.
The move bolsters SpaceX’s position as one of the largest tech companies in the market. However, traders are faced with a tough question: Is today’s opening rise worth chasing?
The answer lies not so much in the fundamentals as in how the institutional order flow plays out in the opening hour of trade.
Why Today’s Nasdaq-100 Inclusion MattersThe Nasdaq-100 is an index of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange.
The analysts think the rebalancing might create about $4.3 billion in passive flows.
These funds cannot wait for a better price, as active investors do. Their mandate requires them to take the stock at any price, producing demand that often exceeds typical trading.
That request comes at a time when the readily tradable quantity of the stock is still relatively small.
SpaceX’s IPO garnered $75 billion by selling 555.56 million shares. Yet, CEO Elon Musk still controls more than 82% of the company’s voting power. Most existing owners still can’t sell for several more months due to insider lockup regulations.
Today’s session could see wide price swings due to the mismatch of forced demand and constrained supply.
SPCX Stock Analysis: Price Levels to WatchSPCX finished Friday at $162, up around 20% from its $135 IPO price.
With the stock expected to attract billions of dollars in passive fund inflows, traders will be closely watching how the stock reacts around several key resistance and support levels
On the upside, the $185 to $190 range represents the first major resistance area. The zone closely aligns with Wedbush’s $190 price target, which accompanied the firm’s recent Outperform initiation.
Wedbush based its bullish outlook partly on SpaceX’s growing artificial intelligence business. In its analysis, it included an estimated $27.8 billion in annual AI-related revenue generated through partnerships with Anthropic and Alphabet.
If mandatory index buying drives SPCX’s stock price higher after the opening bell, traders could see increased profit-taking near this widely watched valuation target.
On the downside, the $158 to $161 area remains the SPCX stock’s most important near-term support.
Heavy trading during SpaceX’s June 12 market debut established a strong volume anchor around the first-day closing price of $160.95, placing the zone just below Friday’s close of $162.
A successful defense of this range would suggest institutional demand continues to absorb selling pressure created by early volatility.
Below that, $150 could be a key level for the market. The level marks SpaceX’s opening price on its first day of public trading. During that period, roughly 58 million shares changed hands during the opening auction.
A sustained move below $150 would indicate that selling pressure has begun to outweigh the passive buying generated by the Nasdaq-100 rebalance. If sustained, such a move could potentially shift short-term momentum in favor of sellers.
Why Chasing the Opening Bell Can Be CostlyThe first 30 to 60 minutes of trading are viewed as the most volatile session, as passive index funds finish their required buying and institutional desks reposition around the Nasdaq-100 rebalance.
Analysts expect SPCX to attract about $4.3 billion in passive flows as ETFs and index-tracking funds, notably the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), rebalance their holdings.
These funds need to be bought regardless of the price. Therefore, liquidity can turn one-sided for a while, typically resulting in violent swings and bigger bid-ask spreads.
That might set up a nice chance for short-term traders and market makers to sell into the opening strength. Similar index inclusions in the past have led to outsized opening volatility before prices settle down later.
Traders might want to sit on the sidelines and see whether the SPCX stock can build support above the $161 zone. The goal could be to avoid chasing an early breakout and waiting for volume to normalize.
If that range holds after the initial wave of passive buying, then it would suggest that demand is more than just forced index rebalancing.
Rebalance Beyond the Nasdaq-100 InclusionToday, index mechanics will mostly drive price activity. However, longer-term investors will eventually turn back to SpaceX’s operating performance.
The corporation had revenue of about $31.2 billion in the prior year, with Starlink contributing about $18.7 billion, or over 60% of total revenues. That subscription business continues to be a recurring income generator even as SpaceX cranks up spending on Starship, rocket infrastructure, and next-gen satellite deployments.
Those investments still are not cheap. The corporation posted a net loss of almost $4.9 billion last year as capital expenditures continued to rise, implying execution on future growth plans will remain key.
Other things traders should watch closely, aside from today’s index inclusion, are future Starship test flights and FAA licensing decisions.
Apart from those, the launch cadence, more Starlink subscriber growth, and the pace of government and commercial contracts are also areas to watch. The medium- and long-term valuation of SPCX is more likely to be determined by the catalysts rather than the rebalance of the Nasdaq-100
SPCX Stock Today: The Final WordAdding SpaceX to the Nasdaq-100 is a structural milestone that might push one of SPCX’s biggest trading days since its IPO.
But today’s buying impetus is mostly index rebalancing, not a shift in the company’s fundamental value. When the passive fund flows dry up, the stock will move again on fundamentals, earnings expectations, and execution.
Patience may be the preferable tactic for traders. Perhaps, it is best to let the opening imbalance play out and then see if the SPCX stock can hold the $161 support zone. A risk-reward setup may be better than chasing the initial surge.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares traded in consolidation over the past two weeks, more than a dozen Wall Street analysts initiated coverage of SpaceX stock on July 7, 2027.
On Tuesday, Brian Gesuale, an analyst at Raymond James, initiated coverage of SpaceX stock with a ‘Strong Buy’ rating. He also set his 12-month price target for SpaceX stock at $800, signaling a nearly 400% bull rally.
Brian Dobson, an analyst at Clear Street, set a price target of $217 for SPCX stock. Jonathan Siegman, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, set his 12-month price target of $190 for SPCX stock.
Ken Gawrelski, an analyst at Wells Fargo, set a 12-month price target of $230 for SPCX stock. John Goyn, a Wall Street analyst at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), set a price target of $200. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), set a 12-month price target of $300.
Eric Sheridan, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), set his 12-month SPCX stock price target at $205. John Hodulik, a Wall Street analyst at UBS, set a price target of $210 for SpaceX shares.
Louie DiPalma, an analyst at William Blair, initiated coverage of SPCX with a buy rating but did not set a specific price target for SpaceX stock. Douglas Harned, an analyst at Bernstein, set a 12-month price target of $239 for SpaceX stock.
Doug Anmuth, a Wall Street analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), set a 12-month price target of $225 for SPCX shares. Jonathan Atkin, an analyst at RBC Capital, set a price target of $225.
Paul Golding, an analyst at Macquarie, set a $250 price target. Meanwhile, Colin Canfield with Cantor Fitzgerald, Brett Linzey at Mizuho Securities, and Ryan Koontz from Needham set a 12-month price target for SpaceX stock at $246,$200, and $200, respectively
As such, 26 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month price target of $216.48 for SpaceX stock.
SPCX analysts forecast. Source: TipRanks SpaceX stock price performance Since its June IPO (Initial Public Offering), SPCX stock price has not closed below its debut value. At press time, SPCX stock traded at about $160.42, up over 18% from its IPO price.
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold As such, Wall Street analysts expect SpaceX stock to rally nearly 35% over the next 12 months.
That’s because SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100 just 15 trading days after its blockbuster IPO—the fastest major index inclusion following an IPO after Nasdaq introduced a new fast-track rule earlier this year. The move forced index funds tracking the benchmark to purchase billions of dollars worth of SpaceX shares, regardless of whether portfolio managers believed the stock was attractively valued.
How Investors Ended Up Owning SpaceXUnlike actively managed funds, index funds don’t decide whether a stock is expensive or cheap. Their job is simple: if the index changes, they change.
That’s exactly what happened with SpaceX.
JPMorgan estimates QQQ alone generated roughly $4.3 billion of buying demand, while total passive flows tied to Nasdaq-100 and related index products could have reached $22 billion to $27 billion.
Passive Doesn’t Always Mean Hands-OffFor many investors, the episode offers a reminder that passive investing doesn’t eliminate investment decisions—it delegates them.
In this case, the decision wasn’t made by a fund manager. It was made when Nasdaq adopted a new rule allowing companies ranking among the 40 largest by market value to join the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days of public trading.
The S&P 500 took a different approach.
While Nasdaq accelerated SpaceX’s inclusion, S&P Dow Jones declined to adopt similar fast-track rules, leaving SpaceX out of the benchmark for now because it has yet to satisfy the index’s profitability, public float and seasoning requirements.
What It Means for InvestorsNone of this says SpaceX is a good or bad investment.
The company has powerful long-term growth drivers, including Starlink, launch services and ambitious AI infrastructure plans. At the same time, critics point to its premium valuation, limited public float and ongoing losses as reasons for caution.
For millions of retirement savers, however, that debate may already be beside the point.
Whether they researched SpaceX or not, many investors now own a small piece of it simply by owning the index. And that’s perhaps the biggest lesson from SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut: passive investing doesn’t just track the market—it tracks the rules that define it.
Image via Shutterstock/ Tada Images
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The market has spent much of 2026 rewarding companies tied to artificial intelligence, defense, and space technology with premium valuations. Investors have been willing to pay up for businesses promising decades of future growth, often overlooking near-term fundamentals.
That enthusiasm helped make SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) public debut one of the biggest investing stories of the year. Yet markets eventually force every stock to answer the same question: what is the business actually worth? Today’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 may provide another catalyst, but it doesn’t change the underlying math that long-term investors should be watching.
SpaceX’s Historic IPO Has Already Lost Its Momentum SpaceX delivered the largest initial public offering in history last month, pricing shares at $135 before opening for trading at $150. Excitement surrounding the company’s dominant launch business, Starlink satellite network, and long-term Mars ambitions pushed the stock to an intraday high of $225.
That excitement has cooled quickly. Heading into midday trading today, SpaceX changes hands around $151, leaving the stock barely above where it first began trading and erasing nearly all of its post-IPO gains.
Several factors have weighed on shares. Early investors have taken profits after the initial rally, valuation concerns have become harder to ignore, and the market has started asking whether expectations simply got too far ahead of the business. While SpaceX remains one of the world’s premier aerospace companies, the stock’s rapid climb priced in years of future success almost immediately.
Morningstar has also argued the shares remain overvalued even after the recent decline, noting that investors are still paying a steep premium relative to the firm’s estimate of intrinsic value. It says it could be worth less than half its IPO price. Meanwhile, the company continues to face the execution risks that come with scaling Starlink globally, developing Starship, and balancing commercial, government, and defense contracts.
SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today, becoming the fastest newly public company ever added to the benchmark index. That milestone matters because hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including passive vehicles that must purchase shares to match the index.
Index inclusion often creates a temporary tailwind because funds have little choice but to buy. Once that buying pressure fades, however, investors return to evaluating revenue growth, cash flow, profitability, and valuation.
History shows plenty of stocks receive an index boost only to resume trading based on business performance once passive buying is complete.
Fundamentals Still Matter More Than Index Membership Granted, SpaceX remains an extraordinary company with leading positions in reusable rockets, satellite internet, and government launch services. The investment case, however, is different from the business itself.
The question isn’t whether SpaceX is an innovative company. It clearly is. The question is whether today’s share price already reflects much of that future success.
Morningstar believes it does. With investors still assigning a premium valuation despite the recent pullback, the margin for disappointment remains thin if revenue growth, Starship development, or Starlink subscriber expansion falls short of expectations.
In the end, index buying cannot create long-term shareholder returns by itself. Only stronger earnings, expanding cash flow, and sustained execution can accomplish that.
Key Takeaway In short, today’s Nasdaq-100 addition could provide SPCX with a short-lived boost as passive funds purchase shares. Regardless, that demand is mechanical — not fundamental. The stock has already surrendered nearly all of its post-IPO gains despite one of the strongest public debuts ever, and respected research firms such as Morningstar still view the shares as overpriced.
Smart investors should admire the company, but continue watching from the sidelines until the valuation better reflects the business rather than the excitement surrounding it.
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 shares are under pressure. Why are QQQ shares declining?
A Small Slice of the IndexJPMorgan estimates SpaceX will enter the Nasdaq 100 at roughly a 1.3% index weight, placing it behind Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), which sits near 3.2% of the benchmark.
That means SpaceX will be a high-profile new member, but not a top-tier driver of QQQ’s performance at inception.
Analysts Push Back on "Forced-Buy" HypeDespite headlines forecasting billions in passive inflows, veteran tech analyst Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets describes the index inclusion as "less meaningful than people expect," per CNBC.
Meeks stresses that the process is essentially mechanical, saying "this is formulaic and everybody knows the formula," which in his view limits the scope for a surprise upside shock once QQQ and other Nasdaq trackers complete their rebalancing.
That sentiment echoes broader skepticism about the idea that index funds alone can sustain the kind of speculative rally that followed SpaceX’s record IPO.
Modeling from JPMorgan does show sizable one-off flows, with estimates in the $4 billion to $7 billion range tied to Nasdaq 100 trackers and related vehicles.
However, Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research, argues that "the buying needed on the index inclusion is likely to be much less than people initially suspected," according to CNBC.
SpaceX will remain a relatively thin slice of the Nasdaq 100 benchmark until its float expands over time.
Short-Term Pop, Limited Long-Term LiftCNBC also points to analysts at Arete Research who note that ETFs and mutual funds will still need to buy a "sizeable portion of the tradeable pool" because of SpaceX’s small float and large retail allocation, creating short-term upward pressure on the stock.
Yet Jefferies cautions that "given the low float, the index weight will not be as impactful as anticipated," and future lockup expirations could offset passive inflows as insiders sell.
Overall, these analysts view SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion as a notable milestone, but one that delivers minimal lasting lift to the stock compared with the exuberance that surrounded its historic IPO.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was down 5.33% at $151.87 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo: JRdes / Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Marley Kayden discusses SpaceX (SPCX) and its debut into the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) today after its record-setting IPO. She says multiple analysts are initiating coverage of SpaceX, with some predicting it will build over $800 billion in revenue by 2031.
SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ: SPCX) arrival on the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) benchmark is the fastest mega-cap onboarding the NASDAQ has ever executed. CNBC’s Morgan Brennan laid out the mechanics on air Tuesday morning. “SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq 100. That will happen at the start of trading officially later this morning,” Brennan told viewers, framing the move as a defining moment. Brennan then walked through why the inclusion matters so much for near-term price action. She also mentioned why the setup is more complicated than a clean tailwind.
What Morgan Brennan Said And Why It Matters “The company joining the index just 15 days after its stock market debut on June 12th, among the fastest inclusions ever thanks to Nasdaq’s revised rules for newly listed companies,” Brennan said. The revised NASDAQ framework lets qualifying mega-caps skip the traditional seasoning period, and SpaceX is the first name large enough to test it in practice.
The float mechanics are what created the passive bid. “According to a recent JPMorgan estimate, it enters the Nasdaq 100 at three times its raw float of $75 billion. That translates to an index weight of about 1.3%. That inclusion is expected to unleash a wave of passive buying for mutual funds and ETFs that track the index, an estimated $4.3 billion,” Brennan noted. Because index funds must own the stock in proportion to its weighting, that rebalancing happens mechanically by rule.
Brennan flagged the offsetting risk without softening it. “While that inclusion could put upward pressure on the stock, upcoming expiring lock-ups, and there is a tranche of them, could likely add downward pressure as insiders begin to unload shares.”
The Sell-Side Is Overwhelmingly Bullish “Half a dozen Wall Street firms are initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating. Morgan Stanley, the most bullish of the bunch, giving it a $300 price target, implying an 87% gain from Monday’s close of $160.42,” Brennan said. Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley anchored the highest target.
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The internal data set corroborates a bullish sell-side tilt. Consensus price target sits at $188.57, with 7 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell rating. Against Tuesday’s opening tape at $154.59, that consensus implies roughly 21.98% upside. The stock opened 3.63% lower on the inclusion day itself, a common pattern when passive buying is front-run.
The SpaceX Business Sell-Side Is Underwriting The bullish coverage rests on a business that has expanded well beyond launch. SpaceX operates Starlink, a low-latency broadband network powered by roughly 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink delivered connectivity to millions of consumer, enterprise, and government customers across 164 countries. The company has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023, and its acquisition of xAI in early 2026 added a frontier AI business to the platform. Sylvia Jablonski, CIO of Defiance ETFs, argued in mid-June that investors underestimate the company by viewing it as pure aerospace, describing it as a “multi-platform infrastructure company involved in launch, communications, defense, and AI connectivity.”
In short, two forces are colliding over the next several weeks. On one side is the $4.3 billion in mechanical passive buying tied to index rebalancing. On the other side is the lockup tranche Brennan flagged, which will unlock insider supply into a market that is still pricing in scarcity. Retail conviction is fragmenting alongside that setup: Reddit sentiment on July 7 registered a very bearish reading of 18, even as news sentiment sits at 58.22.
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SpaceX's SPCX valuation has been in the spotlight ever since its historic June 12th initial public offering (IPO) that tagged a market cap of nearly $2 trillion on the space infrastructure and AI titan.
And while many believe the company is trading at a stretched multiple, Brian Gesuale, a Raymond James analyst, issued a contrarian call on SPCX today, saying it’s actually “undervalued” at current levels.
In his research note, Gesuale told clients that SpaceX stock is strongly positioned to hit $800 over the long-term – an exceptionally bullish price objective that signals potential upside of a whopping 430% from here.
Gesuale’s positive stance on SPCX shares is based primarily on commercial maturity of the firm’s Starship.
The next-gen vehicle is built to carry more than 100 metric tonnes into orbit – effectively rewriting the laws of aerospace economics.
According to the Raymond James analyst, Starship is a revolutionary asset that transforms orbital launch from a custom, low-frequency capability into a highly automated transportation network.
Gesuale noted that this shift mimics a commercial aviation operating cadence with continuously falling unit costs, allowing the space giant to tap into a massive, newly unlocked $30 trillion total addressable market.
Beyond transforming global logistics and satellite deployment, Gesuale cited artificial intelligence (AI) as another major driver for SpaceX shares’ premium valuation.
As enterprise software shifts toward compute-heavy, agentic AI systems, the primary bottleneck for tech companies has shifted from software development to physical infrastructure and power availability.
In a note to clients, the Raymond James analyst said SPCX is uniquely positioned to commercialize an ultra-low-cost platform designed to convert raw electricity into highly actionable, AI-powered analytical insights.
By building out data capabilities connected to its satellite infrastructure, the firm is quietly erecting the foundational infrastructure required to generate useful intelligence at a lower cost than standard terrestrial operators.
Note that Raymond James is far from alone in its long-term optimism, though its target sits at the top of the Wall Street estimates.
The firm acted as an underwriter for SpaceX's massive $75 billion capital raise alongside lead bookrunners Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This insider familiarity supports a thesis that compares SpaceX to historic economic catalysts like the railroads or the internet grid.
Current consensus data from LSEG reveals that more than two-thirds of covering analysts hold a “Buy” or equivalent rating on billionaire Elon Musk’s space infrastructure and AI giant.
By framing the company as a pure-play industrial infrastructure backbone rather than a speculative aerospace venture, analysts increasingly view the current post-IPO consolidation as a unique entry point into SPCX stock.
Investors who sat out the Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%) initial public offering had a variety of reasons for doing so.
They could have had concerns about valuation, believed that the business is overly complicated, or worried about the cost of building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in space. Some investors may also be interested in investing in SpaceX but want to see it trade for a little longer, waiting for it to find a stable price range before making a move.
Those same investors, however, may be surprised to find that SpaceX could still end up in their 401(k)s. Whether you're concerned or just curious, there's a simple way to find out if SpaceX is in your retirement account.
Image source: Getty Images.
First steps To learn if SpaceX is in your 401(k), you can log in to the website of your retirement plan provider to access your account. When looking at your portfolio, you can see the exchange-traded funds (ETFs), target-date funds, or mutual funds that the 401(k) is invested in.
Depending on your retirement plan provider, you may be able to view the holdings of those investments directly in your account. If not, you can find information online.
After reviewing the holdings, you'll know whether SpaceX is in your 401(k).
Where SpaceX is included On June 26, SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 index, which tracks the performance of the 1,000 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. If an ETF that tracks the Russell 1000 index, like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF, is in a 401(k), that means the 401(k) has exposure to SpaceX.
Also, on July 7, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq-100, which tracks the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Included in that index are Apple, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Invesco QQQ Trust is a popular ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100, so if Invesco QQQ is in a 401(k), that 401(k) also has exposure to SpaceX.
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Is there a massive cause for concern? For investors worried about SpaceX in their 401(k), the good news is that it was not fast-tracked for inclusion in the S&P 500. If a 401(k) account has an investment that tracks the S&P 500, there is no exposure to SpaceX.
In addition, even if there is an investment in your 401(k) that now or soon will hold SpaceX, it will likely play a relatively small role within that ETF. Circling back to that iShares Russell 1000 ETF, SpaceX's weight within the ETF is 0.1%, while Nvidia's weight is 6.5%. That's just one example, but it shows the limited impact SpaceX has on that ETF.
If SpaceX faces a prolonged slump, it will have only a minimal impact on an ETF, especially one with hundreds of thousands of holdings.
SummarySpaceX’s fast-tracked inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 is expected to trigger around US$4.3 billion of compulsory passive buying, but historical precedents suggest such events can evolve into “sell-the-news” opportunities as early institutional buyers distribute shares to index funds.Past Nasdaq-100 additions such as Palantir Technologies and Strategy experienced medium-term pullbacks of 23% and 15%, respectively, after their index inclusions, highlighting the risk of profit-taking once passive fund demand is absorbed.Despite its dominant AI and Starlink narrative, SpaceX’s valuation remains exceptionally demanding, trading above 115x trailing sales while still posting a net loss, leaving little room for operational disappointments or tighter financial conditions.Technically, bearish momentum is building, with the SpaceX perpetual contract forming a bearish flag pattern and weakening RSI momentum. A break below 152.60 would reinforce the bearish outlook, while only a sustained move above 176.95 would negate the downside scenario. Getty Images
By Kelvin Wong
Massive $4.3 billion passive wave arrives via fast-tracked inclusion Following its record-breaking Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, which raised a historic $75 billion at an issuance price of $135 per share, aerospace and AI giant SpaceX (
Just about everyone had their eyes on the Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX 4.92%) initial public offering (IPO), which ended up being the largest-ever IPO in market history. For weeks, nobody could talk about anything else, and now that the honeymoon stage is over, and the confetti swept away, gravity is bringing the stock back down to Earth.
After hitting a lifetime high of about $225 in mid-June, SpaceX stock now trades in the mid-$150s to the low $160s -- a drop of about 30%. Despite the dip, however, I would not call SpaceX a screaming buy -- or even a murmuring one.
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Part of that is because of SpaceX's valuation. With a market capitalization of over $2 trillion, SpaceX still trades at more than 100 times trailing revenue. That's extraordinarily high. For context, Nvidia trades at roughly 19 times sales, Microsoft around 9, and Amazon around 3.5.
Investors are already paying for several years of aggressive growth, and it's unclear yet what the space stock is capable of delivering. SpaceX itself says its market opportunity is worth about $28.5 trillion. But that's an estimate, not a solid figure, and since it comes from SpaceX's own calculations, I'd take it with a grain of salt.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the time of writing (July 3), the average price target for SpaceX is about $188, representing 17.5% upside. This average will likely change on July 7, the day the "quiet period" for underwriters involved in SpaceX's IPO, which included a slew of big-name banks, officially ends. Each of these banks' analysts will weigh in on what they think SpaceX is worth, which could cause the price to jump higher or sag.
Regardless of what other analysts predict, my opinion is the same: SpaceX has an exciting business, but the price-to-sales ratio is too high for my tastes. Most long-term investors, I think, should wait for more clarity before stepping in.
Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Dow Jones Futures: Tech Futures Slide On Samsung Earnings; SpaceX Falls Ahead Of Nasdaq-100 Inclusion SpaceX stock's quiet period ended with a bang early Tuesday as Elon Musk's rocket, AI and technology company readied for its first day on the Nasdaq 100 index. The inclusion means SpaceX will join key ETFs and index-tracking funds, working its way into millions of retirement portfolios. Wall Street also rolled out a strong vote of confidence as a score…
Key Takeaways SPCX rebranded xAI as SpaceXAI as it expands beyond launch services and Starlink.SpaceX plans AI compute satellites by 2028 and is growing its Colossus data center platform.SpaceX's AI push adds margin uncertainty as Starship remains key to several growth plans. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is increasingly positioning artificial intelligence (AI) as its next major growth driver and has officially rebranded xAI as SpaceXAI.
The Elon Musk-led company had acquired xAI and its social media platform X in February this year. SpaceX is now aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated AI infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink.
SpaceXAI: The X-Factor?As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, will now operate under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX has also entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market. The acquisition gives SpaceX exposure to a high-growth software business while strengthening its AI capabilities. The buyout adds a widely adopted developer platform that could complement the company's growing technology portfolio. The transaction is likely to be completed by the third quarter of 2026, subject to the fulfillment of mandatory closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
Competitive EdgeSpaceX has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.
The satellite Internet platform, Starlink, has expanded rapidly, serving millions of customers across residential, enterprise, aviation and maritime markets with an active network of more than 10,400 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). Unlike the launch business, which generates project-based revenue, Starlink provides recurring subscription income and potentially higher long-term margins. The business also benefits from a powerful competitive advantage. SpaceX can launch its own satellites at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, allowing Starlink to expand its network faster and more efficiently. As global demand for reliable broadband connectivity increases, Starlink's growth prospects remain solid.
Price PerformanceSpaceX has soared 18.8% since its IPO compared with the industry’s growth of 146.4% over the past month. It has outperformed peers like Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) over this period. While Verizon has declined 7.4%, AT&T is down 8.6%.
SPCX Stock Price Performance Since IPO
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likely PitfallsHowever, SpaceX is scaling several capital-intensive platforms simultaneously. The company is investing heavily in COLOSSUS, COLOSSUS II, Grok, enterprise offerings, compute services and future orbital AI compute. Management expects a multi-year investment cycle until sustained positive segment adjusted EBITDA is realized. The strategy may create a cost advantage if compute, energy and launch assets integrate as planned. Until then, AI adds uncertainty to margins, capital needs and consolidated earnings quality.
Moreover, Starship is central to the long-term strategy, but it remains a development platform. SpaceX has completed 12 Starship flight tests, and the next milestone is payload delivery to orbit in the second half of 2026. The investment case assumes Starship can lower cost to orbit, increase payload capacity and support V3 satellites, Starlink Mobile V2, AI compute satellites and lunar missions. Any delay in reusability, cadence, payload reliability or regulatory clearance would affect several growth vectors at once. This risk is not limited to the Space segment because Connectivity and AI also rely on future launch throughput to reach their planned scale.
Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s 2026 earnings has narrowed from a loss of $1.12 per share to a loss of 96 cents over the past seven days, while the same for 2027 has narrowed from a loss of 11 cents to a loss of 9 cents. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NoteSpaceX is steadily transforming from a pure-play aerospace company into a diversified AI infrastructure leader. Its aggressive investments in AI computing, the integration of SpaceXAI, expanding enterprise partnerships and plans for space-based data centers underscore management's conviction that AI will be a key driver of future growth.
Although the AI segment is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated investment levels, the company's long-term growth prospects appear increasingly tied to the rapid expansion of the global AI infrastructure market. While high operating costs and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears well-positioned to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. Those who already own the stock can hold onto it, while new investors may wait for a better entry point.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
When a company goes public, it's important to know that the shares sold in the offering are a fraction of the existing shares. The rest, the stakes held by employees, early backers, and executives, sit behind a lockup -- an inability to sell for a set stretch after the debut.
For Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.92%), the first stretch lifts in late July, and the design of the release tells you more than the date does. Most IPOs use one 180-day lockup, so a wall of shares might hit the market on a single morning.
SpaceX built something different. The first slice, nearly 20% of locked shares, is freed up after the company reports second-quarter results in late July. Smaller tranches of around 7% each follow through August, September, and October, with a larger release tied to third-quarter earnings, and the 180-day batch clears in December. Instead of one flood, supply arrives in steps.
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The SpaceX price triggers worth watching One tranche, about 10% of the locked pool, is unlocked if the stock trades at 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50. That condition ties insider selling to strength rather than weakness. If shares are unlocked this way, more supply reaches the market, but it reaches the market because the stock has climbed. Think of this mechanism as a built-in brake: The plan releases the most shares when demand can absorb them.
What the lockup expiration means for the stock Two forces are at play here. More sellable shares can cap gains, and the late-July window is the first real test of how many insiders want out at a $2 trillion valuation. On the other side, the staggered format spreads the pressure across months rather than one session, and the largest holder sits out of every July move. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027, with no early release provision. The overhang that could matter most is a year down the road.
Image source: Getty Images.
The takeaway for investors The July expiration is a signal, not a cliff, and the difference shapes how you read the rest of the year. A staggered lockup lets the market price in each release as it comes rather than absorb one shock, so the second-quarter report in late July becomes the first honest look at insider appetite. If early backers and employees hold their shares through that window, it says something about how the people closest to SpaceX view a $2 trillion price tag; if they sell into the opening, their exit says the opposite.
After a debut that sent the stock to a peak near $226 per share within days, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) has given back a large chunk of that run and trades near $160 as of this writing. The pullback has rattled some new shareholders, and the honest read is that it might have more room to fall. That does not make the stock a mistake. It makes the method you use to buy it the thing that matters.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why the SpaceX sell-off might get worse The first pressure is supply. SpaceX staggered its insider lockup, and the first block of shares, nearly 20% of the locked pool, is released after the second-quarter report in late July. Smaller tranches will follow through the fall, with the full 180-day batch clearing in December. More sellable shares meeting the same pool of buyers can press the price lower, and that supply arrives on a schedule the market can see coming.
The second pressure is the price itself. A market value near $2 trillion bakes in moon bases, a high Starship flight rate, and orbital data centers, outcomes that could take a decade to prove. A launch setback or a slipped timeline could reset sentiment in a hurry, and the $226 per-share peak looked more like debut momentum than a considered price. Momentum fades, and a stock that tripled expectations in a week can keep giving back ground.
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Why dollar-cost averaging is the move Instead of one lump purchase at a price no one can predict, dollar-cost averaging commits a fixed dollar amount on a set schedule, month after month, at whatever the price allows. When shares drop, that fixed sum buys more of them; when shares climb, it buys fewer. Across a volatile stock with a known supply calendar, the math lowers your average cost and removes the pressure to call a bottom that no one can call. For a company with a decade-long story and lockups draining out through December, spreading purchases across those same months lines up with the supply.
The approach has limits worth stating. If the stock climbs in a straight line, a single lump-sum buy would have beaten it. And dollar-cost averaging does not fix a weak business; it addresses timing, nothing more. The case rests on the belief that SpaceX is worth owning for years, with the investing schedule managing volatility along the way.
The takeaway for patient investors The sell-off is uncomfortable, and discomfort is where a patient plan earns its keep. Set an amount you can add on a schedule, tune out the daily move, and let the lockup-driven supply come to you rather than chasing the stock. A brokerage account that supports recurring buys makes the habit automatic. I would treat SpaceX as a position built across quarters, not a trade timed to a bottom.
Item 1 of 2 People walk in front of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. building at 270 Park Avenue, in New York City, U.S., October 21, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
[1/2]People walk in front of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. building at 270 Park Avenue, in New York City, U.S., October 21, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Driven in part by the blockbuster SpaceX mega IPO, a surge in sales and trading will power U.S. Wall Street bank earnings in the second quarter, supported by solid fee growth from advising on M&A deals, according to analysts and LSEG data.
Five of the six largest U.S. lenders, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab, Bank of America (BAC.N), opens new tab, Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), opens new tab and Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab, will report results on July 14. Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab will unveil second-quarter results on July 15.
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Trading continues to be a source of strength in 2026 as volatility has remained higher than usual due to persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding disruption from artificial intelligence.
Market revenue is expected to be up at least 15% year-on-year for the largest global banks, said Angad Chhatwal, head of fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) at Coalition Greenwich, a global analytics and data provider for the financial services industry.
"Equities is set to be the primary engine of growth across global markets. The SpaceX IPO will have generated significant revenues in banking but also for certain cash-equities desks during the quarter," said Jamie Vickers, head of equities at Coalition Greenwich.
Wall Street giants, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which had big roles in the nearly $86 billion SpaceX IPO, will likely outperform in equities, Morningstar analyst Sean Dunlop said. Banks on the SpaceX IPO raked in around $500 million in fees, Reuters and others reported.
But Dunlop cautioned that trading revenue for the second quarter, while still strong, may slow compared to the first quarter when unusually high levels of volatility from the initial Iran war shock and related inflation and interest rate repricing drove high levels of activity.
Investment banking has also been a strong area of revenue growth for banks, with mega equity offerings and multibillion-dollar transactions signalling the most bullish deal-making environment in years.
Global investment banking revenue hit $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a 24% jump from a year earlier, according to Dealogic data. JPMorgan remained the global leader in investment banking revenue, while Goldman Sachs was the global leader in M&A advisory.
Chip designer Cerebras' (CBRS.O), opens new tab $6.4 billion IPO and Google-parent Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab $85 billion share sale were also among the top deals in the second quarter.
STRONG LOAN GROWTHBanks will also benefit from loan growth and expansion in net interest margin, a measure of how much a bank earns from interest and pays out on deposits.
U.S. Federal Reserve data suggests loan growth accelerated in the second quarter, underpinned by robust momentum in commercial and industrial loans, analysts said.
"While some uncertainty persists from geopolitical factors and market volatility, many banks are reporting that clients are increasingly viewing the current environment as the 'new normal' and continuing to move forward with investment plans," Jefferies analyst David Chiaverini said.
Investors will focus on the outlook for loan growth in the second half of 2026 and executives' commentary on the U.S. economy as concerns remain around inflation hurting consumers' pocketbooks.
Investors should also keep a keen eye on credit metrics and broader loan demand as key pillars to support a continued rally across bank stocks into the second half of 2026, Morningstar analyst Austin Taggart said.
Here is what bank executives have said about upcoming earnings and what analysts expect from the six biggest U.S. lenders:
JPMORGAN CHASEJPMorgan Chase's investment banking fees could rise 10% or more in the second quarter, CEO Jamie Dimon told an investor conference in May.
BANK OF AMERICABank of America may exceed the initial forecast of 15% growth in second-quarter markets revenue, fueled by the equities business, Co-President Jim DeMare said in June.
CITIGROUPCitigroup expects trading revenue to rise between high-single and low-double digits in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Gonzalo Luchetti said at an investor conference in June.
Investment banking revenue is expected to rise by a mid-teen percentage in the second quarter, he added at the time.
WELLS FARGOWells Fargo's net interest income is expected to "step up" in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said at an investor conference in June.
GOLDMAN SACHSGoldman Sachs has managed to advise on more than $1 trillion worth of announced mergers and acquisitions so far in 2026, marking a record pace for any investment bank within a half-year period, the Wall Street giant said in a LinkedIn post, citing Dealogic data on June 16.
MORGAN STANLEYMorgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said last month it was a pretty good time to be in the capital markets business. There is a lot of core investment banking activity, he said at the time.
Bank
Q2 2026 EPS estimate
Q2 2025 EPS
JPMorgan
$5.70
$5.24
Bank of America
$1.11
$0.89
Citigroup
$2.68
$1.96
Wells Fargo
$1.71
$1.60
Goldman Sachs
$13.91
$10.91
Morgan Stanley
$2.84
$2.13
Source: LSEG estimates on June 30
Reporting by Saeed Azhar and Arasu Kannagi Basil; editing by Michelle Price
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Saeed Azhar is a Reuters financial journalist and part of the U.S. banking team, which covers Wall Street's biggest banks. He focuses on Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, and also writes about regional banks. Before moving to New York in July 2022, he led the finance team in the Middle East from Dubai, and also worked in Singapore, covering Southeast Asia finance.
Basil writes stories across the U.S. finance file including banks, asset managers, payment firms, insurers, and exchange operators. He also covers initial public offerings on U.S. exchanges and venture capital funding.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%), better known as SpaceX, went public last month to much fanfare. It instantly made history as the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, reaching a $2 trillion valuation on its first day of trading.
All the hype it's received, however, has made it more challenging for investors to decide whether to buy in. Some analysts believe the stock could eventually surpass Nvidia in valuation. Others are more skeptical, given that SpaceX is already trading at extremely optimistic levels.
With SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 this week, it will be even easier for investors to gain exposure to the stock through ETFs that track the index. If you're thinking of owning SpaceX, however, there's one piece of advice I'd offer to all investors: make sure you're buying it for the right reasons.
Image source: Getty Images.
Your timeline can make or break your portfolio There are two main reasons an investor may want to buy SpaceX stock. Either they view it as a solid long-term investment with significant growth potential, or they're hoping that the hype surrounding the stock can make them rich overnight. Investors with the latter mindset are almost certain to be disappointed.
Short-term investing is incredibly risky, especially with a stock like SpaceX that's prone to volatility. Despite popping on its first trading day, for example, the stock has fallen by nearly 20% since June 16, as of this writing. If your timing is even slightly off, short-term investing can be costly.
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Long-term investing is a far safer strategy, but there are still some caveats. For a stock to succeed over several years, it needs to have solid fundamentals, such as:
Healthy finances and a path to profitability. A strong competitive advantage. An experienced and capable leadership team. A proven and sustainable business model. Hype can only go so far, so before investing in any stock, it's important to understand a company's core business to decide whether it's positioned for long-term growth.
As for SpaceX, experts are divided on just how strong the company's fundamentals are, so there's an element of risk even for long-term investors. This doesn't necessarily mean it won't thrive over time. But foundations beat hype every time, so it's crucial for investors to consider why they're buying before they invest.
It's turning out to be another banner year for U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite launching to new highs. Though the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) often gets most of the glory, initial public offering (IPO) euphoria also deserves some credit.
On June 12, Elon Musk's AI and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 0.99%), cemented itself in Wall Street's record books. SpaceX's debut raised $85.7 billion, including the overallotment for underwriters, which nearly tripled Saudi Aramco's previous IPO capital raise record of $29.4 billion.
For a few days following SpaceX's IPO, it fully lived up to the investor hype and neared a $3 trillion valuation. But as of the closing bell on July 2, Musk's company had "retraced" to a $2.13 trillion market cap. Nevertheless, its $162 share price is a cool 20% above its $135 IPO list price.
Image source: Getty Images.
The million-dollar question is: Can SpaceX sustain this momentum for the remainder of 2026?
While nothing can ever be guaranteed on Wall Street, history has a way of accurately forecasting the future.
Will SpaceX stock plummet below $100? History weighs in. Although several newly signed compute deals for AI start-up xAI and fast entry into the Nasdaq-100 (effective today, July 7) are positives for SpaceX, historical precedent is definitely not its friend.
To begin with, large-scale IPOs have a terrible early stage track record on Wall Street. Before SpaceX went public, researchers at Truist Financial compared the performance of 30 of the largest tech-driven IPOs of the last 14 years (starting with Facebook, now Meta Platforms). Though 43% of the 30 were higher at the six-month mark, the average year-one maximum drawdown was a whopping 55%.
Moral of the story-do NOT chase hot IPOs
Year-1 average drawdown = 55%
Year-1 median drawdown = 54%
Table: Truist pic.twitter.com/xt864JD4Xh
-- Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) June 3, 2026 The magnitude of this average drawdown indicates that investors' emotions play a big role in early trading for newly public companies. If SpaceX were to conform to the average year-one max drawdown, it would plunge to around $101.50.
What complicates matters for SpaceX is its staggered and accelerated lockup schedule.
Typically, companies going public sell between 10% and 25% of their outstanding shares. Though SpaceX sold approximately 555.6 million shares, this represents less than 5% of its outstanding shares. Musk's company has a relatively low float that's going to expand rapidly once insiders are free to sell their shares.
Starting two trading days after the company's first quarterly report as a public company (estimated for Aug. 6), early release-eligible shares can be sold. There are several performance- and time-based markers that enable insiders to dump their shares on retail investors. This can easily weigh on SpaceX's stock.
-- Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 19, 2026 Lastly, no company at the forefront of a game-changing technological innovation (let alone two, AI and the space economy) has ever sustained a trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any significant length of time. As of July 2, SpaceX was commanding a P/S ratio of 114, based on its 2025 full-year sales.
The cards are absolutely stacked against SpaceX's early success. More importantly, all of these factors decisively point to SpaceX's stock plunging below $100 per share before 2026 comes to a close.
Investors seeking exposure to SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) have new opportunities ahead of the company’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7.
The move comes just weeks after SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering and is expected to drive significant passive fund inflows as index-tracking products adjust their holdings.
For investors seeking more direct exposure than broad market funds can offer, several space-focused ETFs provide meaningful allocations to SpaceX while also benefiting from the broader growth of the commercial space industry.
In this line, Finbold has identified the following two ETFs to buy today.
Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASDAQ: NASA) The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASDAQ: NASA) is one of the newest dedicated space investment funds on the market, offering concentrated exposure to companies shaping the future of the space economy.
The actively managed ETF focuses on businesses involved in launch services, satellite technology, space infrastructure, and related innovations.
SpaceX is a core holding in the portfolio, alongside other companies positioned to benefit from rising demand for commercial space services.
The investment thesis behind NASA centers on the continued expansion of the space economy, supported by lower launch costs, growing satellite deployment, broadband connectivity initiatives, Earth observation services, and emerging deep-space opportunities.
For investors seeking a high-conviction space ETF with significant exposure to industry leaders, NASA offers a targeted approach that extends beyond traditional aerospace investments.
Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) remains one of the most established space-focused ETFs available to investors.
Following SpaceX’s IPO, the company became one of the ETF’s largest holdings, giving investors direct exposure to one of the industry’s most influential players.
UFO tracks an index of companies generating substantial revenue from space-related activities, including launch operations, satellite communications, and supporting technologies.
Unlike more concentrated funds, UFO provides broader diversification across the space ecosystem while maintaining meaningful SpaceX exposure.
This structure allows investors to participate in growth opportunities tied to Starlink, commercial launch demand, government contracts, and expanding satellite infrastructure without relying on a single company.
As commercial space activity continues to expand globally, UFO offers exposure to multiple segments of the industry while maintaining a strong link to SpaceX’s long-term growth prospects.
Overall, interest in SpaceX ETFs has grown following the company’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
Backed by its leadership in reusable rockets, the expanding Starlink network, and a growing role in commercial and government space missions, SpaceX has become a major force in the space economy.
SpaceX stock is showing downward bias. What’s next for SPCX stock? The Nasdaq-100 InclusionAnalyst Coverage FloodWith the IPO quiet period expiring today, Wall Street is weighing in on SpaceX for the first time — and the early read is broadly bullish. The stock now carries a Buy consensus with an average price target of $234.05. A sample of today’s initiations include:
Bernstein initiated with Outperform and a $239 price target Clear Street initiated with Buy and a $217 price target RBC Capital initiated with Outperform and a $225 price target SpaceX Shares Tumble LowerSPCX Price Action: At the time of publication, SpaceX shares are trading 1.10% lower at $158.66, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Imugene Ltd (ASX:IMU, OTC:IUGNF, FRA:ILA) is raising about A$11.12 million before costs through a two-tranche placement, strengthening its balance sheet as it advances its lead cell therapy asset azer-cel through key clinical and regulatory milestones.
The placement follows positive early clinical data from Cohort 3 of Imugene’s ongoing Phase 1b azer-cel study, where the first two evaluable patients in the concurrent BTKi combination cohort achieved complete responses.
The placement will involve the issue of about 117.1 million new fully paid ordinary shares at A$0.095 per share to sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. It was strongly supported by new and existing institutional investors. Placement participants include an international, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, which subscribed for about 14% of the placement, subject to shareholder approval.
Funding into CY2027 The placement is expected to provide funding into CY2027, with proceeds to be used primarily for the continued development of azer-cel.
Funds will support the expansion of Cohort 2, covering CAR-T naïve indications, and Cohort 3, covering the BTKi combination arm, as well as regulatory engagement, manufacturing scale-up and general working capital.
Tranche 1 is expected to raise A$7 million through the issue of about 73.7 million new shares, while Tranche 2 will raise A$4.1 million through the issue of 43.4 million new shares, subject to shareholder approval where required.
Complete responses sharpen clinical focus Recent clinical progress has centred on Imugene’s concurrent BTKi combination cohort in its Phase 1b azer-cel study.
On June 30, 2026, Imugene announced that a BTKi-refractory follicular lymphoma patient had achieved a complete response at Day 28. A day later, the company announced a second complete response in the first mantle cell lymphoma patient treated in the study, taking the response rate to 2/2 evaluable patients in that cohort.
Managing director and CEO Leslie Chong said: “The first two evaluable patients in our concurrent BTKi combination cohort have both achieved complete responses, providing a strong early clinical signal for azer-cel in a therapeutic class worth more than US$12 billion annually. This Placement funds a series of important clinical data readouts over the next 6–12 months, including presentations at ASH and ASCO, while supporting our ongoing business development activities and continued discussions with potential pharmaceutical partners. We thank our shareholders, new investors and Directors for their ongoing support as we advance azer-cel towards a registrational pathway”.
About azer-cel Azer-cel, or azercabtagene zapreleucel, is Imugene’s lead off-the-shelf, allogeneic CAR-T therapy targeting CD19 for the treatment of blood cancers.
Imugene said BTK inhibitors are an established standard of care across multiple B-cell malignancies, with published studies supporting the rationale for combining BTK inhibition with CAR-T therapy. The company said its early results provide the first clinical evidence supporting this approach with azer-cel, an allogeneic CAR-T therapy.
Further patient readouts are expected across the BTKi and CAR-T naïve cohorts over the next 6–12 months, with potential data presentations anticipated at ASH 2026 and ASCO 2027.
