Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

RKLB stock is sinking. See the chart and price action here. In its inaugural "Final Frontier" industry note, the firm argues that vertically integrated launch players like SpaceX and Rocket Lab are "probably best‑positioned over a multi‑year period,” but says the cleaner one‑year risk‑reward sits with ASTS and its satellite‑to‑smartphone story.

ASTS – Overweight, $100 Price TargetAST SpaceMobile is pitched as the pure‑play on turning everyday smartphones into satellite phones via direct‑to‑device broadband, not just SOS text messaging. 

"ASTS isn’t going directly to the consumer, but is instead offering service through existing carriers," the note says, arguing that MNO partnerships both reduce customer‑acquisition friction and harden the moat against Starlink’s competing direct‑to‑cell push. 

The firm’s $100 price target rests on a 20x 2031 EV/EBITDA multiple, discounted back at 15%, with upside tied to faster‑than‑modeled subscriber uptake and higher attachment rates. The main overhang, the analysts concede, is Starlink’s ability to undercut pricing by launching its own constellation at cost.

SPCX – Neutral, $156 Price TargetSpaceX is initiated at Neutral with a $156 target and described as "a space stock, but really an AI play," reflecting Piper’s view that the real prize is orbital AI data centers and low‑cost tokens powering a multitrillion‑dollar AI applications market. 

"We believe in upside over multiple years," they write, "but over a 1‑year term, we’re hesitant," noting that discounted cash‑flow work is "hard" when the end markets for space‑based AI and connectivity are still highly nebulous.

RKLB – Neutral, $83 Price TargetRocket Lab also lands at Neutral, with an $83 target and a narrative that casts it as the most credible "No. 2" launch and space‑systems player behind SpaceX. 

Piper highlights Rocket Lab’s "hardcore engineering" culture under founder and CEO Peter Beck, nearly 90 successful Electron orbital launches and the forthcoming reusable Neutron rocket as evidence it is solving "the hard problem: rockets" and nudging the industry toward a duopolistic launch structure. 

At the same time, space systems already account for roughly two‑thirds of FY25 revenue, and the planned Iridium acquisition adds a 66‑satellite LEO narrowband network with recurring voice and data revenue, giving Rocket Lab a three‑legged stool of launch, spacecraft and services. 

"Unfortunately, RKLB isn’t a secret," the analysts caution, pointing out that the stock trades at a premium revenue multiple versus SpaceX and is likely to "track along with SPCX in the coming year" rather than generate independent alpha, even if Neutron milestones, Space Development Agency wins and government backlog all break right.

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.14%), also known as SpaceX, is a polarizing stock. One one side of the fence, you have people touting the company's massive opportunities in space exploration, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence (AI), while on the other side, people point to its deep bottom-line losses and astronomical valuation.

Wall Street coverage has started out strong, and one analyst thinks the stock is going to reach $800 over the next 12 months, a 488% gain from Tuesday's closing price. If that were to happen, SpaceX would be valued at $8.7 trillion, making it the most valuable company in the world, at least based on the current market caps of its megacap peers. Here's why I don't think that's going to happen.

The $28 trillion opportunity SpaceX has grouped its operations into three business units since its merger with xAI earlier this year. Its core mission is to put people and payloads into space, and develop multiplanetary living. To that end, it's the largest rocket launcher in the world, working with both private and government clients. Elon Musk fans are excited about this revolutionary vision, and since Musk has been involved with several transformational companies in the past, including Tesla and PayPal Holdings, they're confident about his prospects in this case, too.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The other two segments, satellite broadband and AI, work in tandem with the space business. SpaceX already has more than 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit, where they provide broadband internet connectivity in regions that lack other alternatives. Musk also envisions putting data center satellites in space, powered by the sun, to support the growth of AI.

Management has pegged the company's total addressable market at $28 trillion, and Wall Street is excited about the opportunity. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale (the one who put that $800 price target on the stock) pegs it at $30 trillion and initiated coverage of SpaceX stock with a strong buy rating. "Just as railroads, electric grids, and the Internet reshaped prior economic eras," he said, "we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity."

Why it doesn't look likely SpaceX may or may not have such a massive addressable market -- which would be larger than any country's gross domestic product except that of the United States -- and in the near term at least, it's not demonstrating signs of reaching it. The company as a whole has been reporting healthy, but not dramatic, growth. It's also reporting losses, and as it starts adding stock-based compensation to its expenses, those losses may widen before they contract.

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In Q1 2026, total revenue increased 15% year over year to $4.7 billion, with a $2 billion loss. Both the space segment and the AI segment are losing money, although the Starlink satellite business reported a $1.2 billion operating profit in the quarter.

These kinds of numbers don't indicate a stock that's going to increase more than fourfold over the next year, and so far, the stock has been falling. I'd take the sell-side analyst's optimistic view with a very large grain of salt.

Over the last few years, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.90%) has undergone an interesting transformation from pioneering rocket launches to a more diversified infrastructure business. With its recent initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX blends established space capabilities with emerging connectivity and compute operations, positioning the company for substantial scale by 2030.

Against this backdrop, a $1,000 investment in SpaceX stock today could deliver meaningful upside under reasonable growth and valuation assumptions, though final outcomes hinge on successful execution across its various segments.

Image source: Getty Images.

Breaking down SpaceX's current business profile SpaceX operates three unique segments: The space business centers on launch cadences from the Starship system, Starlink's connectivity network provides low-orbit broadband, and the company offers AI infrastructure by leasing compute capacity and developing new frontier models.

Starship's mission is to lower the cost of reaching orbit through rocket reusability. By doing so, SpaceX unlocks new applications in satellite deployment and space manufacturing. Meanwhile, Starlink provides high-speed internet through its rapidly growing satellite constellation, serving both consumers and enterprises expanding mobile and direct-to-cell capabilities. Lastly, the AI segment division builds and monetizes advanced compute infrastructure, including terrestrial data centers and future orbital systems.

According to SpaceX's S-1 filing, the company generated $18.7 billion in total revenue in 2025. The connectivity segment, driven by Starlink, generated roughly $11.4 billion in sales and stood out as the only profitable segment, with operating income of $4.4 billion. Starlink's profitability is supported by recurring subscription revenue from a growing subscriber base exceeding 10 million.

The space segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue but recorded an operating loss of $657 million, largely due to heavy investment in Falcon reusability and ongoing research and development (R&D) expenses. Meanwhile, the AI segment contributed $3.2 billion in revenue but posted a substantial operating loss of $6.4 billion amid higher cloud computing costs and infrastructure build-outs.

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What is SpaceX's revenue outlook through 2030? Projections from Wall Street analysts largely reflect strong growth potential across each of SpaceX's core segments. The consensus bullish view is supported by Starlink's subscriber expansion, Starship-enabled launch volume increases, and ongoing scaling of AI compute demand.

Some of the higher revenue outlooks among analysts come from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Goldman projects SpaceX's total revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley provides a somewhat more measured view at roughly $330 billion. Clearly, these figures represent a dramatic step change from SpaceX's current base -- assuming successful execution on rocket reusability, Starlink constellation growth, and compute commercialization.

What will SpaceX stock be worth by 2030? Let's have some fun with numbers. In the scenarios below, I'll apply a range of price-to-sales (P/S) multiples to the 2030 revenue estimates detailed above. By doing so, we can calculate a wide range of implied market capitalizations. The valuation multiples reflect varying degrees of investor optimism: 10x for a more mature business, 15x as a blended base case, and 25x for sustained hypergrowth akin to disruptive technology platforms.

Under Morgan Stanley's $330 billion revenue scenario, SpaceX's implied market cap ranges from $3.3 trillion to $8.25 trillion. Relative to the company's current market capitalization of approximately $1.8 trillion, these equate to upside potential between 83% and 358%. Under these conditions, a $1,000 investment today would be worth roughly $1,830 at the low end and $4,580 at the high end.

Using Goldman's higher revenue projection, the outcomes improve even further. SpaceX's future market cap could reach anywhere between $4.7 trillion and $11.8 trillion. This would turn a $1,000 initial investment into approximately $2,611 (161% upside) to $6,555 (556% upside), respectively.

These scenarios illustrate the sensitivity of future returns based on revenue and the underlying multiple investors apply. While Starlink's profitability and recurring revenue provide a visible foundation for growth, and improvements across Starship and AI infrastructure can support a premium multiple, risks surrounding execution, competition, and capital intensity remain.

Even though a $1,000 position held through 2030 could deliver meaningful gains under favorable conditions, smart investors should weigh the variety of possible outcomes before pouring into SpaceX stock.

SpaceX has become one of Wall Street's biggest targets for short sellers just weeks after completing the largest initial public offering in history, as investors increasingly bet that the Elon Musk-led company's blockbuster valuation could come under pressure.

The stock briefly slipped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday before recovering to close at $135.27, marking the first time it has traded below its debut price since listing on the Nasdaq last month.

Shares have now fallen about 10% over the past five trading sessions.

According to data compiled by S3 Partners, short interest in SpaceX has climbed to 181 million shares, representing 28% of the company's 646 million-share tradable float.

Bloomberg reported that this is the highest level ever recorded for a newly listed company during its first month of trading.

Unrealised gains for short sellers have already reached approximately $3.88 billion.

The pace of bearish positioning has accelerated sharply.

In the past week alone, investors added approximately 37 million shares worth about $5 billion to short positions.

S3 Partners' head of predictive analytics, Ihor Dusaniwsky, said the recent weakness in the stock, combined with the approaching expiry of insider lockup restrictions, has encouraged additional bearish bets.

"Recent share price weakness, combined with the approaching lockup expiration, is further stimulating short-selling demand," Dusaniwsky said.

The decline in SpaceX's shares comes after its highly anticipated IPO valued the company at about $2.1 trillion following its first day of trading.

Despite the recent pullback, the company still trades at around 49 times expected revenue, making it one of the most expensive large-cap technology companies on Wall Street.

By comparison, fellow Musk-backed company Tesla trades at roughly 15 times expected revenue.

Investors have also become more cautious after SpaceX raised $25 billion through the bond market last month to finance the expansion of its artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The move added to broader concerns that aggressive AI-related capital spending across the technology sector could pressure future returns, particularly if interest rates remain elevated.

"The stock's retreat seems to be a combination of profit-taking, valuation reassessment and the unwinding of extremely bullish positioning following one of the most anticipated listings in recent years," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com in a Reuters report.

Investors are preparing for two key catalysts that could increase volatility over the coming weeks.

The company is expected to conduct its 13th Starship test flight, while second-quarter earnings are anticipated during the first week of August.

Attention is also turning to the expiry of lockup restrictions for insiders.

Although SpaceX completed the largest IPO in US history, less than 5% of its outstanding shares were made available for public trading, creating a scarcity that helped propel the stock following its debut.

As lockup restrictions begin to expire, millions of additional shares could enter the market, potentially increasing selling pressure.

Despite the recent correction, Wall Street remains broadly optimistic on the company's long-term prospects.

According to LSEG data, 27 of the 32 analysts covering the stock recommend buying it, while four maintain neutral ratings and only one has a sell recommendation.

However, several high-profile investors and analysts have come to reiterate their bearish stance after the stock price decline.

Former Fidelity Overseas Fund manager George Noble told Business Insider that investors should "expect the price to completely crash."

"I think it could be half over the course of the year," Noble said, adding that he believes a fair value for the shares is around $30, implying a decline of roughly 78% from current levels.

Jay Ritter, the economist widely known as "Mr. IPO" for his research on public listings, said he had considered shorting SpaceX before its market debut and was not surprised by the recent decline.

CFRA analyst Keith Snyder has also maintained his sell rating since the IPO.

"I am still negative on the valuation at these levels and haven't seen anything that would change the story for me," Snyder told Business Insider, adding that only substantially stronger growth would alter his view.

A Reuters analysis of 50 major US IPOs since 2010 found that companies whose shares fell below their IPO price within the first two months of trading generally went on to underperform those that remained above their offering price, although most still delivered positive long-term returns.

It's been barely over one month since Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.90%), popularly known as SpaceX, debuted on the Nasdaq stock exchange. In that short span of time, Cathie Wood's high-profile Ark Invest has continually increased its holdings of the company. None of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) run by the investment and asset management firm has yet to sell a single share of the Elon Musk-led company.

Let's take a glance at these most recent buy-ins.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX is finding a place in multiple Ark ETFs Last week, Wood and her team were avid buyers of SpaceX. On Tuesday, Ark Invest dipped its toes in the water as the stock hit its post-IPO lows, snapping up 44,196 shares valued at around $6.6 million. The following trading session saw the investment firm buy a much larger pack of 181,847 shares for roughly $27 million. Putting a cap on the week, on Friday, Ark snapped up 116,971 at around $17.8 million.

Per the famous firm's habit with large-scale buys, it allocated its brand-new SpaceX shares among several of its future-focused ETFs: 220,715 found their way into the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK 2.12%), the Ark Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETF (ARKQ 1.86%) took in 70,531, and the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW 1.59%) absorbed 28,763.

Somewhat incongruously, the Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX 1.98%) brought up the rear with 23,005 shares.

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Ark has been a long-term investor in SpaceX for longer than most of us. That's because the firm began accumulating the company's shares even before the IPO, through its Ark Venture Fund (ARKVX +0.04%), which invests in businesses before they list on stock exchanges. It still holds them to this day.

This, along with massive buy-ins on the stock's first day of trading and subsequent continuous purchases, has led certain Ark ETFs to amass impressively large stakes. With the above-mentioned transactions, the tally for the four non-Venture ETFs now stands as follows:

ETFNo. of sharesTotal valueArk Innovation1,946,984$296 millionArk Autonomous Tech & Robotics836,475$127 millionArk Space Exploration & Innovation481,706$73 millionArk Next Generation Internet366,817$56 million Data source: Ark Invest as of July 10, 2026. Note: The total value figures are rounded estimates.

Ark likes that SpaceX is 4 businesses in 1 Collectively, Wood and Ark love nothing less than a company pushing hard into the future, and that's one of the great appeals of SpaceX stock. It's a space exploration business, a developer of both artificial intelligence (AI) technology and the hardware that powers it, an important satellite communications company, and the operator of social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

While most of these businesses are cutting-edge and exciting, only one (the connectivity unit anchored by the Starlink satellite business) posted an operating profit last year. That came in at $4.4 billion. Meanwhile, another -- AI -- booked an extremely deep loss of nearly $6.4 billion.

SpaceX, as a company, is a mishmash of businesses that aren't necessarily synergistic. The space and AI units (the latter of which includes X) are likely to continue posting losses, possibly for years. That's sure to sap the considerable strength of the connectivity division's satellite operations. Personally, I'd be much more cautious about investing in SpaceX than Wood and her team.

Starship 40 rolls out of the SpaceX production facility toward the launch pad as preparations continue for the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy v3 booster in... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

SummaryCompaniesSpace startups raised about $7.5 billion across 141 venture deals in Q2Investors are watching whether Blue Origin raises about $10 billion, Seraphim Space saidSpaceX listing drew investors beyond specialist funds ​into the sectorJuly 16 (Reuters) - Global investment in space startups was near ‌record levels in the second quarter, buoyed by investor enthusiasm following SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab nearly $86 billion initial public offering, according to a Seraphim Space report on Thursday.

The landmark listing has broadened investor interest beyond traditional ​space-focused funds, reinforcing the industry's emergence as a mainstream asset class.

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It has also ​supported larger financing rounds for companies developing launch systems, satellite networks, defense ⁠technologies and other orbital infrastructure.

"We've seen a clear increase in investor interest over the ​past year, which has been supported by the SpaceX IPO, but also reflects broader investor recognition ​of the commercial maturity of the sector," said Lucas Bishop, investment analyst at the British investment firm.

"We are seeing increased inbound from investors with limited or no prior space exposure, who are now looking ​to build positions in the category."

While Bishop said the first half of 2026 represented an ​exceptional period for fundraising and quarterly totals may fluctuate, he said the industry's underlying investment drivers remained ‌strong.

Investors ⁠said interest was also increasingly focused on companies serving defense and national security customers, as well as businesses developing in-space computing capabilities, reflecting expectations that governments and commercial customers will boost spending in those areas.

Space companies raised about $7.5 billion across 141 venture funding deals ​in the second quarter, ​compared with a record $8 ⁠billion across 159 deals in the previous quarter.

"We are now seeing investors put more money into larger funding rounds for established space ​businesses. That will mean there's more capital for companies that have ​already proved ⁠their technology works, that there's clear demand, and that now's the time to scale," said Felix von Schubert, executive partner at NewSpace Capital.

Investors will be watching whether Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin ⁠completes ​its reported plan to raise about $10 billion.

The transaction could become ​among the largest private fundraises in the sector's history and extend one of the strongest periods of capital formation ​the commercial space industry has seen.

Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.61%) stock has been on a wild ride since the company went public just over a month ago. As of this writing, its share price is below its first-day opening price of $150.

But where might it be in 12 months?

A host of Wall Street analysts recently weighed in, setting a wide range of price targets for SpaceX stock, from $300 to $800. A more realistic forecast, however, based on two decades of IPO history, is that 11 months from now, its shares will be around $156.

That's right. SpaceX stock could be just 4% higher than its opening price of $150 on its initial public offering (IPO) day. Here's why.

Image source: Getty Images.

Big IPOs tend to have small returns 1 year later Reporting from Barron's last month said that large IPOs, the ones with market caps above $10 billion, usually have gains of just 3.5% after their first year of trading. The periodical looked at data compiled by Jeffries that analyzed the performances of large IPOs over the past 26 years.

If we round that up to 4%, and add it to SpaceX's opening price of $150, then the company's shares -- based on historical mega-IPO data over a quarter-century -- will likely be about $156.

Other data from the University of Florida points to disappointing IPO results as well, with an average return of just 2.9% in the first two years for IPOs between 2010 and 2024.

Reliably predicting what the share price of any company will be in a year is impossible. And there are plenty of optimistic takes out there elaborating on why SpaceX is a unique company, and should be valued accordingly.

But history should probably be our guide when considering  SpaceX stock right now, especially as the company is unprofitable and is spending money hand over fist on huge bets that may not pay off.

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SpaceX will bring its own level of unpredictability to the table If newly public companies are inherently volatile, I think SpaceX will be especially so.

There are a few reasons for this, including that it is making huge bets on difficult rocket technologies and an unproven plan to deploy orbital artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

SpaceX asserts that eventually, its Starship rocket will reduce the cost of launching payloads by more than 90% compared to its current Falcon platforms. I'm optimistic about SpaceX's rocket capabilities, but if it fails to do this soon, or if there are significant setbacks in bringing Starship into commercial use, then it could cause the stock to slide.

And then there's its ambitious plan for satellite-based AI data centers. The company aims to use its rockets to deploy data center satellites into orbit on the premise that operating them where they can be powered by 24-hour solar energy will be cheaper overall than siting them on Earth. Even the most optimistic estimates put this type of technology at least several years away, and it's still uncertain whether it would be cheaper -- even if it's possible.

Any prolonged delays or missteps on the company's path toward deployment, or a pivot away from orbital data centers, could cause investors to lose faith in SpaceX.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly right now, SpaceX is spending wildly on all of this tech. Its capital expenditures were about $27 billion in 2025, and accelerated to $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Investors are growing increasingly skeptical of such spending. SpaceX is also unprofitable, with a net loss of $5 billion last year.

If investors see the company making progress on some of its aggressive goals, perhaps they'll put up with the high outlays for a bit longer. But many investors are already giving the side-eye to more-established tech companies that are ramping up AI spending. They likely won't give SpaceX a free pass, either.

All of which means that SpaceX stock likely won't be able to overcome the gravity of historical post-IPO trends. I think its shares will remain volatile, so investors would be better off observing the company's progress from afar for at least a year.

The largest IPO in history is doing what IPOs tend to do: underperform in the short term. In the first three to five years after a stock enters the public market, most fail to deliver positive returns to investors. With so much media attention on Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.59%), investors wondered if this company would buck that trend.

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My prediction? It's highly unlikely. SpaceX will close the year closer to $100 per share than $200.

I think SpaceX is a terrific, innovative company. Still, the valuation simply does not make sense, and the company's insiders will take their profits off the table as soon as lockup periods end (which is very soon), leaving the retail investors holding the proverbial bag for quite some time.

An unsustainable valuation By almost any measure, SpaceX is overly expensive. Right now, the stock is trading nearly 100 times the company's sales. SpaceX's revenue is growing, but not fast enough to justify the valuation. The company generated just $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.

After its IPO, SpaceX raised another $25 billion in investment-grade bonds. Musk's company is spending money and posting net losses. Profitability isn't close.

Of course, people are investing in SpaceX for its long-term potential, and that's completely understandable. Between its industry-leading rocket launch business and Starlink's scalability, SpaceX has the opportunity to grow immensely.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is also making strategic acquisitions to boost revenue, most recently Anysphere for $60 billion. Anysphere is the parent company of the highly regarded AI coding platform Cursor.

There's real execution risk involved with SpaceX, and the company's sky-high valuation leaves very little room for mistakes, delays, or failures. If the company were valued at just $1 trillion, I could perhaps justify paying a premium for shares. At a nearly $2 trillion market cap, though, there's limited upside.

I'm not fully bearish on SpaceX. I am in awe of the brilliant people who work at the company and of what they've achieved on a technical level. I simply don't see a scenario beyond pure Reddit-style hype that would push the stock above its $135-per-share debut price by the end of the year.

I see the stock landing somewhere around $100 per share as much more likely, given that insiders are selling shares and SpaceX continues to post net losses.

An alternative for space-enthused investors Competitors such as Rocket Lab (RKLB 3.36%) are a more compelling buy in the space industry at the moment. Rocket Lab has an enormous $2 billion backlog and is prepared to challenge SpaceX in the medium-lift launch market with its Neutron rocket. Rocket Lab also trades at a premium, but much less so than SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s name is practically synonymous with renewable energy.

The tech titan and CEO of both Tesla (TSLA 0.48%) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.59%), or SpaceX, rode a wave of concern about vehicle emissions to not only create the first viable U.S. electric car company but also to grow it into a global automotive superpower and one of the world’s largest companies.

In 2016, Tesla bought solar company SolarCity and introduced solar roof technology that replaced traditional roof shingles with small solar tiles.

So why is Musk, of all people, making a quiet billion-dollar investment in fossil fuels on behalf of SpaceX? And what does it mean for SpaceX investors?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.

A tale of two fuelsSpaceX’s S-1 prospectus – the company information shared with the public just before its IPO – doesn’t mince words when talking about the company’s views on solar energy. “The Sun contains approximately 99.8% of the solar system’s energy and, as a result, we believe it is the only truly scalable solution to terrestrial energy constraints in the age of AI,” the prospectus says. It goes on to repeat this assertion five more times.

However, the company doesn’t seem interested in harnessing solar energy anywhere but in outer space. Its giant Colossus II data center on the Tennessee/Mississippi border is expected to be powered by natural gas for the foreseeable future.

SpaceX’s prospectus notes that it “significantly” relies “on natural gas and gas turbine technology to power our data center operations.”

“As such,” it continues, “our ability to scale our infrastructure depends in part on our continued access to natural gas supply at economically feasible prices [and] the availability of gas turbines and related equipment.”

More gasGiven this ongoing reliance on natural gas power, it’s pretty clear why Musk would want to buy a company that supplies it: owning one’s own power infrastructure minimizes the potential for supply disruptions or rate hikes.

However, SpaceX’s recent billion-dollar acquisition isn’t of an existing gas power plant near the Colossus II data center. It’s of Jacksonville-based APR Energy, which operates a fleet of small gas turbines and diesel engines mounted on trailers.

Image source: Getty Images.

Because these are small, mobile units, they can often be installed within days without the lengthy siting and permitting process required for a permanent power plant.

SpaceX classifies these as temporary mobile equipment units and claims that they’re exempt from Mississippi’s air-permitting rules. The Southern Environmental Law Center and Earthjustice disagreed, and they sued SpaceX in June, arguing that “mobile” equipment isn’t really temporary if it’s parked in the same location permanently and never leaves.

To date, SpaceX has installed 59 of these small units, which could collectively emit 2,500 tons of nitrogen oxide per year, even though each individual unit's output would likely fall below the 100-ton nitrogen oxide maximum set by the Clean Air Act for unpermitted turbines.

AI data centers are massive, power-hungry facilities. The more there are, the higher the demand for power to supply them.

On the one hand, it’s good that SpaceX is making plans beyond the local electricity grid for its power supply. On the other hand, SpaceX still expects to require additional grid capacity to supplement its natural gas generation. The prospectus says SpaceX will directly fund this capacity through its “local utility partners.”

What about the lawsuit? Well, in the short term, it doesn’t seem like it will be much of a problem, given that both the U.S. Departments of Justice and Defense have argued against shutting down the company’s mobile power units in Tennessee. They claim such a shutdown would undermine national security because of Grok’s use by the military. Thus, the mobile units are likely to remain at least for the remainder of the Trump Administration.

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Beyond that, however, there’s no guarantee. SpaceX notes in its prospectus that “the outcome of these legal actions is uncertain,” and an incoming administration less friendly to fossil fuels, AI, or Elon Musk could certainly revisit the issue, causing headaches for SpaceX down the road.

Lastly, the move calls into question SpaceX’s claims that solar energy is both the key to satisfying AI’s endless appetite for electricity and its ticket to dominating a $26.5 trillion AI market. If that’s the case, why isn’t the company investing in this critical technology now to get a head start on potential rivals? It’s another sign that investors may have to wait a long time for SpaceX to grow into its current $1.8 trillion valuation.

SpaceX SPCX stock fell below its initial public offering price on Wednesday, marking the lowest level since the company's market debut as enthusiasm surrounding one of the year's largest listings continued to fade.

The stock declined around 2% to $133.34, falling below its $135 IPO price set during last month's record $86 billion offering.

The move extended a volatile start to trading for Elon Musk's rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company.

After surging nearly 50% during its first three trading days, SpaceX shares have since surrendered much of those gains, losing nearly a quarter of their value over the following three sessions.

Investors could face additional volatility in the coming weeks as the first share lockup expirations approach.

The initial lockups that have prevented early investors from selling their holdings are scheduled to expire after the company reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company.

If early shareholders choose to sell following the expiration, additional shares entering the market could create further downward pressure on the stock.

Some of SpaceX's early post-listing gains may also have reflected buying by passive investment funds tracking major equity indexes.

The company was added to the Nasdaq-100 in July after Nasdaq Inc. revised its eligibility rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to join the benchmark after as few as 15 trading days, compared with the previous three-month waiting period.

SpaceX also joined the Russell 1000 Index in late June, just two weeks after its initial public offering, prompting additional purchases by index-tracking funds.

Analysts remain broadly optimisticDespite the recent decline, Wall Street has maintained a largely positive outlook on the stock.

The expiration of the post-IPO quiet period for banks that participated in the offering led to a wave of analyst coverage, including Raymond James issuing the Street's highest published price target of $800 per share.

According to Bloomberg data, more than 80% of analysts covering the stock have assigned buy-equivalent ratings.

The average analyst price target stands at approximately $238 per share, implying roughly 78% upside from current trading levels.

UBS said SpaceX's upcoming rocket launch could provide a near-term catalyst for the shares if the mission is successful.

Analyst Gavin Parsons wrote in a note on Wednesday, as cited by CNBC, that "SpaceX has made multiple hardware and software upgrades since the last flight."

He added, "This flight would demonstrate multiple new milestones and in our view be a positive for the stock."

UBS maintains a Buy rating on SpaceX with a $210 price target, implying approximately 54% upside from Tuesday's closing price.

SpaceX is scheduled to conduct its 13th rocket launch on Thursday.

According to Parsons, the mission supports UBS's forecast for four commercial launches this year and 1,588 flights in 2031.

ToplineSpaceX on Wednesday fell below its IPO price for the first time, with shares reaching an all-time low as investors have shown greater skepticism about artificial intelligence stocks and trends.

SpaceX went public on June 8.

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Key FactsSpaceX’s stock fell 2.1% around 12:45 p.m. EDT, reaching nearly $2 below its $135 initial public offering price.

Shares had somewhat rebounded as of 1:30 p.m. EDT, but remained below the $135 mark.

The stock is now down about 11% since it debuted on June 8, when SpaceX raised over $85 billion in its record-shattering IPO.

Part of the tumble is likely rooted in investor skepticism about AI trade, according to Investopedia, which noted some experts believe investors are shifting away from “pricing in promise” and are instead more closely evaluating companies linked to artificial intelligence.

Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Reuters the breach of the IPO price “raises ⁠the narrative that the stock is up on fluff, on speculation, on froth, and not on real fundamentals.”

TangentConcern around SpaceX could be rooted in the company’s AI-related capital expenditure, which reached $7.7 billion in the first quarter, accounting for about 75% of the company’s total capex. SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI, in an all-stock transaction in February.

Forbes ValuationWe estimate Musk’s net worth at $856.8 billion as of Wednesday. Musk became the first trillionaire ever with the IPO of SpaceX, controlling a 38% stake in the company, but his wealth is down significantly from a high of $1.45 trillion shortly after SpaceX’s public debut

ContraAnalysts’ consensus price target for the stock is roughly $247, Axios reported, citing FactSet data that revealed 80% of 21 analysts have a “buy” or “overweight” recommendation on SpaceX. SpaceX bulls have reportedly noted SpaceX will need to make years of large investments to execute on Musk’s vision for the company.

Key BackgroundSpaceX, which was largely an aerospace company before the xAI merger, has directed much of its assets toward AI development. The company sees a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with $26.5 billion of that wrapped up in AI, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Musk has positioned his company as the earliest adopter of orbital data centers, which he claims can address energy limitations for booming AI infrastructure. SpaceX said in an SEC filing the space-based data centers could be deployed as early as 2028. The company also has tens of billions of dollars worth of AI-related agreements with Google, Anthropic and Nvidia, the latter of which SpaceX has bought hardware from to provide computing infrastructure for clients.

Further ReadingSpaceX Shares Close Up 19% After Historic IPO Makes Musk World’s First Trillionaire (Forbes)

Canaccord Genuity (TSX:CF, LSE:CF) has initiated coverage of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (LSE:SMT) with a 'hold' rating, warning that SpaceX now dominates the portfolio to an uncomfortable degree.

Analyst Iain Scouller said the rocket company accounted for 28% of net assets at 30 June, once the trust's 8% balance sheet leverage is taken into account.

He suggested investors who now view their holding as outsized after strong share price gains could top-slice their positions.

The shares trade at 1446p against a net asset value of 1538p, a discount of about 6%.

Canaccord thinks a discount of 5% to 10% is reasonable given the risk and reward attached to private companies and the potential volatility from the large SpaceX position.

The trust has performed strongly, with the share price up 38% and net asset value up 36% over the year to 13 July.

SpaceX contributed 14.9% to absolute performance over the year to 31 March, just over half the 27.4% net asset value return.

Its valuation rose by £1.91 billion to £2.98 billion, equivalent to 79% of the £2.43 billion total increase in fair value across the private portfolio.

Almost all of that gain remains unrealised. The realised gain over the year was just £0.8 million.

Beneath the SpaceX number, the private portfolio was mixed, with 21 investments falling in value and only 14 rising.

Scouller scored the trust's 126-page accounts eight out of 10, praising improved disclosure on unlisted holdings following a Financial Reporting Council thematic review.

He would like to see a vintage year breakdown for private investments, more detail in regulatory announcements when valuations change, and industry classifications for each holding.

SpaceX is currently classified as an industrial rather than a technology company, which helped lift the industrials weighting to 29% from 17%.

Canaccord noted the trust applies a typical 10% illiquidity discount to unlisted valuations, and a further 10% for execution risk where a transaction has yet to close.

The cost of debt is low at 3.6%, up from 3.1%, helped by long-dated debentures issued in 2020 and 2021 at rates below 3%.

Gearing fell to 11% of net asset value from 13%.

Scottish Mortgage spent £3.1 billion buying back 318.6 million shares, or 22% of share capital, over the two years to 15 March 2026.

The board has reviewed the fee structure and rejected a performance fee, with the ongoing charge ratio at 0.33% of net assets.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

© AndreyKrav / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

One of the largest IPOs in history closed in June, drawing more than $300 billion in orders for $75 billion of shares sold, an oversubscription of roughly 4x. Wall Street called it a moonshot. The bond market, quietly, called it something else. As Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar argued in “SpaceX Is Junk. That’s What the Bond Market Says” (July 7, 2026), credit investors are pricing SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) debt as if the rating label were fiction.

The Rating Says Investment Grade. The Spread Says Otherwise. All three major agencies placed SpaceX in investment grade in ratings actions announced June 18, 2026: S&P at BBB (stable), Moody’s at Baa1 (stable), and Fitch at BBB+ (stable). Average that trio and you land on BBB, the lowest rung of investment grade.

Yet as of early July, Kaissar noted, SpaceX bonds traded at an average credit spread of 1.62 percentage points over Treasuries, while average BBB corporates traded at 0.92 points and average BB (junk/high-yield) bonds at 1.55 points. SpaceX debt clears wider than the junk average. Buyers are demanding a risk premium the label does not require.

The Curve Tells the Real Story Kaissar’s maturity breakdown sharpens the argument. The 5-year paper trades at a 1.18-point spread. The 30-year (2056) paper stretches to 1.99 points. The rating stays flat at BBB across every maturity. Near term, creditors accept the story. Push out to 2056 and they are pricing something closer to speculative.

That matters. Junk-rated bonds default meaningfully more often than investment-grade issues, and many pensions and insurers are mandated to avoid speculative debt. If the label ever catches down to the spread, forced selling could follow.

What the Raters Are Nervous About The fundamentals explain the caution. S&P projects negative free cash flow through 2029. Moody’s expects strong revenue and earnings growth through 2028, powered by Starlink, which reported 12 million subscribers as of early June 2026, but flags governance risk tied to SpaceX’s controlled ownership structure and Elon Musk’s concentrated voting power, which limits independent board oversight. Starlink is carrying the company while the AI and X unit posted a large operating loss. SpaceX floated $25 billion in public debt around the IPO.

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The Equity Market Is Telling a Different Story Equity investors are looking past it. The stock trades at more than 100x sales, roughly 30x the S&P 500’s multiple, on a market cap of about $1.05 trillion. The pitch is the S-1’s mission language: “to make life multiplanetary,” “to extend the light of consciousness to the stars,” “to understand the true nature of the universe,” and “to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets.”

Even the stock is cracking. Shares closed at $138.29 on July 14, 2026, down roughly 15.45% over the past month and about 8.96% over the past week, well off the post-IPO peak above $225.

A 2008 Echo Worth Remembering Kaissar frames the analogy carefully. Ahead of the 2008 crisis, AAA-rated mortgage bonds saw spreads widen well before the downgrades arrived, with some AAA mortgage bonds trading up to 1 percentage point wider than similarly rated corporate debt. Bond markets have been right before when spreads and ratings diverged. That is historical context for how bond markets can front-run ratings.

What to Watch For retail investors, the split screen is the point. The equity is a bet on Musk’s decades-long vision. The bond market is a real-time referendum on the balance sheet, and it is harder to hype. Keep an eye on the long-dated spreads. If the 30-year gap keeps widening while the BBB label holds, the credit desk will have said its piece long before the rating agencies do.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 2: A SpaceX logo on a space suit is displayed at an exhibit at The Great American State Fair on July 2, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images)

Getty Images

This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.

Starship serves as the cornerstone of the SpaceX (SPCX) investment narrative, with the next critical milestone approaching swiftly. Without Starship, Will SpaceX Stock Collapse?

SPCX has struggled since its launch on June 12. The share price has dropped approximately 30% from its peak following the debut, finishing at $138 on Monday, inching closer to its IPO price of $135. The thirteenth test flight of Starship, scheduled for as soon as Thursday, July 16, might be the turning point for this situation, for better or worse.

The Importance Of This FlightAlthough SpaceX has already established profitable ventures in Starlink and launch services, a significant portion of the investment case hinges on a critical economic challenge: the expense of launching mass into orbit remains prohibitive for most of its ambitious expansion markets. Orbital AI data centers, next-gen Starlink deployment, lunar logistics – these remain unimpeded by technology but constrained by economic factors.

Starship represents SpaceX’s solution to this dilemma. The rocket is six to eight times the size of Falcon 9, and with greater payload capacity per flight, it can reduce costs per kilogram significantly. Currently, Falcon 9 launches cost about $2,720 per kilogram. Starship aims to lower that to below $100 per kilogram, achieving a 27x decrease, but this is only feasible with over 70 launches per vehicle and minimal refurbishment between missions. Neither of these conditions has been verified at scale so far, and SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss in 2025 against an approximate $3 billion investment in Starship R&D. Flight 13 will be suborbital, not a revenue-generating event, but it will serve as a crucial indicator of whether this launch frequency can be realized.

Issues Experienced During Flight 12 And Critical IndicatorsFlight 12 took place on May 22 and generally proceeded successfully. It marked the introduction of the enhanced Starship V3, featuring a more powerful engine and new refueling equipment. However, two issues arose after the booster detached from the spacecraft. It veered off course instead of maintaining a straight trajectory, and five of its engines failed to reignite for the flight back home. SpaceX has stated that both issues have been resolved, and the FAA has approved Flight 13 to proceed.

Investors should keep an eye on several critical indicators:

Will the booster remain stable after separation? A steady, controlled trajectory would suggest that the tumbling issue has been addressed.

Will the engines relight properly? A successful reignition for the return journey would confirm that the second issue has also been resolved.

Will Starship successfully deploy its satellites? This flight will carry 20 next-gen Starlink satellites, marking the first attempt by Starship in this capacity. A successful deployment would signify Starship's initial genuine step towards revenue generation.

Opportunities Presented By StarshipStarship has the potential to open various new markets.

Starlink deployment: SpaceX’s next-generation V3 Starlink satellites are too large for Falcon 9, positioning Starship as the main launch vehicle for the constellation. This represents the most imminent demand driver, supplying Starship with an inbuilt client poised to maintain a high launch frequency from the beginning.

Lunar and deep-space logistics: NASA has designated Starship as the Human Landing System for the Artemis program, and significantly reduced launch costs could render lunar cargo transport, lunar infrastructure developments, and deep-space missions much more economically viable.

Orbital infrastructure: SpaceX’s IPO documentation highlights orbital data centers and other large-scale space infrastructure as potential future markets. Should Starship fulfill its economic promises, it could facilitate an entirely new class of space-based infrastructure that is unfeasible under current launch costs. See The Radical Bet At The Heart Of SpaceX’s $1.75 Trillion IPO

As SpaceX’s valuation increasingly reflects potential opportunities in markets that are not yet fully realized, it becomes ever more critical to balance speculative investments with established, revenue-generating businesses. A disciplined approach to portfolio management enables you to maintain your investments while mitigating the effects of market shocks.

Achieving consistent outperformance relative to the market is challenging, but the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is structured to make this goal more attainable. The HQ strategy has persistently outperformed its market benchmark since inception, yielding cumulative returns exceeding 105 percent.

The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 15 (Reuters) - SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price on Wednesday, a first for the company, just over a month after a frenzy over the rockets-to-AI firm powered the biggest ​IPO ever and made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

Its shares (SPCX.O), opens new tab slid 2.7% to $132.5, falling ‌below the $135 apiece IPO price and well below the all-time high of $225.64, which propelled the company's market valuation briefly above those of Silicon Valley giants Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab.

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Many contended the stock's rally was likely vulnerable to reversals, given ​SpaceX's $4.9 billion in net losses last year and the uncertainty over the firm's prospects as ​well as the stock valuations that might hold across the market at a ⁠time when inflation has been rising, putting the Fed's policymakers on notice.

The decline leaves investors who ​bought into the company at the IPO price sitting on paper losses for the first time, potentially ​testing confidence in the stock.

It also offers a reminder that Wall Street enthusiasm can cool quickly, even for a company with the size and scale of SpaceX, which raised around $85.7 billion and fetched a valuation of around $2.1 trillion at ​the end of its first trading day.

It is not uncommon for a stock to fall below ​the IPO price, especially during periods of broader market stress.

Wall Street's main indexes have been under pressure in recent ‌weeks due ⁠to uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path and concerns about the durability of the rally powered by AI winners such as chipmakers.

Still, the drop may bolster critics who had argued that SpaceX's valuation was stretched, as the company was unprofitable and many of its ambitious bets were still untested.

Investors ​would find better entry points ​after the first ⁠wave of excitement had faded, some analysts had warned before the IPO.

The reversal also underscores the risks of chasing momentum, and the limits of a ​valuation driven more by narrative than near-term fundamentals.

The stock's addition to prestigious indexes, ​such as ⁠the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab, did little to reignite the buying. SpaceX's shares have dropped nearly 13% since they were included in the Nasdaq 100.

The focus now shifts to the company's first results after listing. SpaceX has not ⁠yet disclosed ​when it plans to do it, but has said they ​will be released only through its website and its social media account on X, and not through wire distribution services.

Reporting by ​Niket Nishant, Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Pooja Desai

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

CHICAGO and MILWAUKEE and NEW YORK, July 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- YieldMax® ETFs today announced the launch of the following ETF:

YieldMax® SPCX Option Income Strategy ETF (NYSE: YSPC)

YSPC seeks to maximize income potential by pursuing options-based strategies on Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX). Tidal Investments LLC serves as investment adviser to YSPC. YSPC does not invest directly in SPCX.

YSPC is the newest member of the YieldMax® Single Stock Option Income Strategy ETF family and like all YieldMax® ETFs, it aims to deliver current income to investors. With respect to distributions, YSPC will be a Group 2 ETF, and its first distribution is expected to be announced on July 29, 2026.

About YieldMax®
YieldMax® ETFs was founded by ETF industry veterans with decades of experience in income-focused investments, options strategies, portfolio management, fund risk management, and fund operations. Our mission is to create innovative and unique ETFs that solve problems for investors of all types.

Important Information

Before investing, you should carefully consider each Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information are in the prospectus, a copy of which can be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectuses carefully before you invest. 

A portion (sometimes significant) of the Fund’s distributions may be classified as return of capital (“ROC”) for financial or tax reporting purposes, which would decrease the Fund’s NAV and trading price over time.

The repeated payment of distributions by the Fund, if any, may significantly erode the Fund’s NAV and trading price over time.

While the Fund intends to pay distributions on a regular basis, there is no assurance in any given period that distributions will be made.

Tidal Investments, LLC is the adviser for all YieldMax® ETFs.

THE FUND, TRUST, AND ADVISER ARE NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY UNDERLYING REFERENCE ASSET.

Risk Disclosures

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Call Writing Strategy Risk. The path dependency (i.e., the continued use) of the Fund’s call writing strategy will impact the extent that the Fund participates in the positive price returns of the underlying reference asset and, in turn, the Fund’s returns, both during the term of the sold call options and over longer periods.

Counterparty Risk. The Fund is subject to counterparty risk by virtue of its investments in options contracts. Transactions in some types of derivatives, including options, are required to be centrally cleared (“cleared derivatives”). In a transaction involving cleared derivatives, the Fund’s counterparty is a clearing house rather than a bank or broker. Since the Fund is not a member of clearing houses and only members of a clearing house (“clearing members”) can participate directly in the clearing house, the Fund will hold cleared derivatives through accounts at clearing members.

Derivatives Risk. Derivatives are financial instruments that derive value from the underlying reference asset or assets, such as stocks, bonds, or funds (including ETFs), interest rates or indexes. The Fund’s investments in derivatives may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other ordinary investments, including risk related to the market, imperfect correlation with underlying investments or the Fund’s other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility, lack of availability, counterparty risk, liquidity, valuation and legal restrictions.

Options Contracts. The use of options contracts involves investment strategies and risks different from those associated with ordinary portfolio securities transactions. The prices of options are volatile and are influenced by, among other things, actual and anticipated changes in the value of the underlying instrument, including the anticipated volatility, which are affected by fiscal and monetary policies and by national and international political, changes in the actual or implied volatility or the reference asset, the time remaining until the expiration of the option contract and economic events.

Distribution Risk. As part of the Fund’s investment objective, the Fund seeks to provide current income. There is no assurance that the Fund will make a distribution in any given period. If the Fund does make distributions, the amounts of such distributions will likely vary greatly from one distribution to the next.

High Portfolio Turnover Risk. The Fund may actively and frequently trade all or a significant portion of the Fund’s holdings. A high portfolio turnover rate increases transaction costs, which may increase the Fund’s expenses.

Liquidity Risk. Some securities held by the Fund, including options contracts, may be difficult to sell or be illiquid, particularly during times of market turmoil.

Non-Diversification Risk. Because the Fund is “non-diversified,” it may invest a greater percentage of its assets in the securities of a single issuer or a smaller number of issuers than if it was a diversified fund.

New Fund Risk. The Fund is a recently organized management investment company with no operating history. As a result, prospective investors do not have a track record or history on which to base their investment decisions.

Price Participation Risk. The Fund employs an investment strategy that includes the sale of call option contracts, which limits the degree to which the Fund will participate in increases in value experienced by the underlying reference asset over the Call Period.

Single Issuer Risk. Issuer-specific attributes may cause an investment in the Fund to be more volatile than a traditional pooled investment which diversifies risk or the market generally. The value of the Fund, which focuses on an individual security (SPCX), may be more volatile than a traditional pooled investment or the market as a whole and may perform differently from the value of a traditional pooled investment or the market as a whole.

Swap Agreements Risk. The use of swap transactions is a highly specialized activity, which involves investment techniques and risks different from those associated with ordinary portfolio securities transactions. Whether the Fund will be successful in using swap agreements to achieve its investment goal depends on the ability of the Adviser to structure such swap agreements in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and to identify counterparties for those swap agreements.

Inflation Risk. Inflation risk is the risk that the value of assets or income from investments will be less in the future as inflation decreases the value of money. As inflation increases, the present value of the Fund’s assets and distributions, if any, may decline.

Indirect Investment Risk. The Index is not affiliated with the Trust, the Fund, the Adviser, or their respective affiliates and is not involved with this offering in any way.

YieldMax® ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC. Foreside is not affiliated with Tidal Investments, LLC, or YieldMax® ETFs.

© 2026 YieldMax® ETFs

When Senra CEO Jordan Black was a SpaceX engineer, he took on the job of scaling up the company’s wire harnesses to support production of Starship, the company’s next-generation rocket.

Wire harnesses are what they sound like: the internal electrical cabling that runs through a rocketship, car, plane, or tractor and becomes increasingly important the smarter those vehicles get. They’re bespoke, put together by technicians who are, functionally, experienced craftspeople.

“I traveled all over the world to go visit wire harness companies,” Black told TechCrunch last month. “It really hasn’t changed since the Cold War era of wooden tables [and] manual processes.”

Black and co-founder Benjamin Shanahan started Senra in 2023 to offer a more modern solution to vehicle manufacturers. Today, the startup is announcing a $65 million Series B round, co-led by Lowercarbon and Interlagos with participation from General Catalyst, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Founders Fund, among others.

Serna isn’t looking to take humans out of the handmaking process—at least not while robots find manipulating wires a challenge and relevant training data remains scarce. Instead, it’s turning to software tools and other forms of automation to modernize aspects of the traditional manual work.

The company is benefiting from the surge of money into U.S. manufacturing, particularly the defense industrial base. While Black couldn’t disclose customers, he said they include builders of “anything from submarines and maritime vehicles, to defense vehicle systems on land, to launch vehicles, to satellites.”

If it doesn’t sound immediately important, consider a recent wire harness disaster. In 2023, Boeing discovered that its Starliner spacecraft’s wiring was held together with flammable tape, forcing an expensive delay while the entire wiring system was redone.

Black points to that experience as a reason to raise the standards for wire harnessing, using automated systems to track materials and engineering changes. “Having it all in the same software is probably the most important thing, because it’s all the little inputs that happen that can make a catastrophic change down the road,” he said.

Senra uses Amp, a proprietary software platform, to standardize the inputs throughout the wiring process and produce a digital twin to guide its technicians, who are trained by the company in what Black says is the only federally certified wire harness training program. The company is also, as it scales, finding ways to automate more of the process.

“It goes back to the Elon principle of, ‘automation is last,’” Black told TechCrunch. “We’re working on it now, but a lot of it the standardization and the foundation building that made SpaceX be able to scale something like rockets, which you could only build one a year if you were lucky, and now they do hundreds a year.”

Senra — which, by the way, is “harness” spelled backwards, minus the “h” and “s,” because Black says the company takes the “horsesh*t” out of harnesses — produces 1,000 each month across two different factories and plans to increae production to 10,000 a month in 2027.

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Tim Fernholz is a journalist who writes about technology, finance and public policy. He has closely covered the rise of the private space industry and is the author of Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and the New Space Race. Formerly, he was a senior reporter at Quartz, the global business news site, for more than a decade, and began his career as a political reporter in Washington, D.C. You can contact or verify outreach from Tim by emailing [email protected] or via an encrypted message to tim_fernholz.21 on Signal.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%) splashed onto the scene just a few weeks ago when it completed the world's biggest initial public offering, raising more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option. Of course, SpaceX wasn't new to investors -- the company had been making headlines for years, particularly for its rocket launches for NASA. But this was the first time investors, from retail to professional, could easily invest in the company.

Demand was high during the IPO -- it was greatly oversubscribed -- and during the first days of trading. The stock soared 50% from its $150 debut price to a peak of $225 on June 16. In recent days, though, SpaceX has lost the positive momentum. In fact, the stock has slipped below its debut price.

If you had invested $10,000 in SpaceX's early days of trading, how much would this investment be worth in a year? History offers us a very clear answer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Exciting growth businesses First, though, let's take a quick look at the SpaceX story. The company has attracted investors thanks to its exciting growth businesses and its ambitious leader, Elon Musk. SpaceX operates in rocket launches, satellite-based internet, and artificial intelligence (AI), areas that each could drive significant revenue gains if they reach certain goals. And speaking of goals, many are ambitious, but if the company can accomplish them, they could be game changers. For example, SpaceX aims to develop data centers in space, and its most ambitious goal may be to colonize Mars.

What's interesting about this mix of businesses is that they fit together nicely, with accomplishments of one driving gains in another. SpaceX's work to make reusable rockets and drive down the costs of launches will help it launch equipment more cheaply and quickly into space for its other businesses.

Elon Musk is the chief executive officer behind these ambitions, and while some investors aren't fans of his strategies, others are -- and they generally rush to bet on Musk. The popularity of the SpaceX IPO is proof of this.

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$18 billion in revenue SpaceX has made progress in various areas -- it aims to launch its fully reusable rocket, Starship, with payloads later this year -- and is delivering growth. Revenue last year climbed more than 30% to $18 billion. But SpaceX needs to invest heavily to support the development of its technology, and this pushed the company to a $4.9 billion loss. This may continue, considering the complexity of the technology involved in the company's businesses.

Now, let's consider the potential value of a $10,000 investment in SpaceX after the stock's first full year of trading. A look at some of the biggest IPOs, from Meta Platforms to Uber Technologies, shows that eight out of 10 fell in their first 12 months on the stock market. Seven of them delivered double-digit declines, and the average drop was 12%.

We might consider SpaceX's performance as falling into the average, and here's why: On its first day of trading, it climbed nearly 20%. According to a study by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, the average first-day return of more than 6,000 IPOs between 1990 and 2025 was just over 21%.

So if we also apply the average drop seen in our look at 10 major IPOs to SpaceX, we come up with the following: History shows us that your $10,000 investment in SpaceX would be worth $8,800 after 12 months.

Major IPOs in general haven't delivered gains after their first year on the market, and the greatly popular SpaceX could follow unless it breaks with this historical trend, which, of course, is possible. Still, all of this means that investors shouldn't necessarily rush to get in on IPO stocks, as there may be better entry points down the road.

There's a strong case to be made that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), better known as SpaceX, is the most hyped initial public offering (IPO) of all time. It raised a record $75 billion during its IPO, hitting the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion -- making it one of the world's most valuable companies.

There are tons of people excited about SpaceX as a company, but there are also tons of people who are only excited about the stock and how much money it could potentially make them. They see CEO Elon Musk as a visionary who made plenty of millionaires through Tesla (TSLA +0.36%) and wonder if SpaceX is on that same path.

Image source: Getty Images.

Two questions that may guide the answer Two key factors will heavily influence whether or not a stock can be a millionaire maker: How much someone can initially invest and how much time they have to stay invested in the stock.

If you have $800,000 to invest in a stock, it's much easier to hit the million-dollar mark, since the investment only needs to grow 25%, compared with having $100,000 to invest and needing it to grow tenfold. The same goes for timing. If you have $100,000 to invest and 20 years on your side, the chances of hitting the million-dollar mark are much higher than if you were trying to accomplish it in five years.

So, which is most important in SpaceX's case?

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The numbers don't currently work in SpaceX's favor The average investor is much more likely to have 20 years to invest than to have hundreds of thousands to invest in a lump sum. So, for the sake of this example, we'll assume someone has $50,000 to invest in SpaceX right now (which is still a lot, to be fair), meaning their investment would need to grow by 20x to reach $1 million.

At the time of this writing, SpaceX is valued at $1.82 trillion, so increasing its value by 20x would put it at $36.4 trillion. Some Wall Street analysts have said they see SpaceX's valuation reaching the $30 trillion ballpark in the next 15 to 20 years, so it's not impossible by any means. However, it's very unlikely, in my opinion.

SpaceX's initial large valuation works against it. This isn't a situation like Tesla, whose initial valuation was $1.7 billion when it went public in June 2010. It's much easier to increase 20x in valuation to reach $34 billion from there than it is when you're starting from nearly $2 trillion.

A $5,000 investment in Tesla during its IPO would be worth over $1.2 million today -- with most gains coming after 2020 -- but I don't see that happening with SpaceX.

TSLA data by YCharts

SpaceX needs to deliver on ambitious projects I do not doubt that SpaceX will eventually make some retail investors millionaires (it has already made plenty of private investors millionaires). Some people have large lump sums to invest, and others realistically have at least 30 years of investing ahead of them to take advantage of compounding growth.

However, I don't believe it will happen for the average investor anytime in the next decade or so.

SpaceX's business is solid right now, as the largest space launch company, owner of lucrative AI infrastructure, and with a flourishing Starlink business, but that's not what will make the average investor a millionaire. It's going to take delivering on very ambitious projects, such as space data centers, and growing into what SpaceX has predicted is the largest total addressable market in history ($28.5 trillion).

Of course, we can never predict how the stock market will perform, and anything is possible, but realistically, investors are better off looking elsewhere for a millionaire-maker stock. And it's likely not one that's currently valued in the trillions.

SpaceX SPCX shares rose about 1.5% on Tuesday, recovering modestly after a recent selloff that brought the stock close to its initial public offering price, as a broader market rally and a fresh bullish analyst initiation supported sentiment.

The stock traded around $141 after falling about 4% on Monday. Despite the rebound, shares remained only slightly above the company's $135 IPO price.

The broader market also advanced after June inflation data came in weaker than expected.

The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around the flatline.

The consumer price index fell 0.4% in June from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.5%.

Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly decline of 0.1% and an annual inflation rate of 3.8%.

Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, with shares opening at $150 the following day.

The stock climbed as high as $225.64 on June 16 before retreating nearly 40% from that peak. On Monday, shares fell as low as $136.78, narrowly remaining above the IPO price.

The decline has come despite broadly positive sentiment from Wall Street analysts.

Approximately 80% of analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a Buy, compared with a typical Buy-rating ratio of 55% to 60% for S&P 500 companies.

The average analyst price target stands at about $240 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $3 trillion.

Several Wall Street firms have also outlined long-term growth scenarios for the company based on expectations for Starlink, reusable launch systems, and future artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses.

On Tuesday, Evercore ISI initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target.

Analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as "an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity."

According to Evercore, the company has built a vertically integrated business that has established a near-monopoly on orbital access through reusable, low-cost launch technology.

The firm projects revenue and EBITDA to compound at 106% and 157%, respectively, through 2028, while forecasting margin expansion from 35% to 69%.

SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in revenue and $3.95 billion in EBITDA in 2025.

Evercore said several milestones will be important in validating its long-term investment thesis.

The firm pointed to expected progress in Starship payload delivery during the second half of 2026, continued Starlink broadband expansion through 2026 and 2027, and the development of the company's mobile strategy between 2027 and 2029.

Evercore also cited terrestrial compute growth through 2028, orbital compute viability beyond 2029, and enterprise adoption of Grok and Cursor between 2026 and 2028 as additional milestones investors should monitor.

Earlier this week, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239.

Global conflicts have a way of reshaping investment stories overnight. Companies once viewed as pure technology or growth plays can suddenly find themselves caught between governments, militaries, and international diplomacy. That doesn’t necessarily change their long-term prospects, but it does change the risks investors need to price in. 

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has spent years building one of the world’s most valuable businesses through launch services and Starlink satellite internet. Now,  the company is facing a challenge that has little to do with engineering and everything to do with geopolitics.

Iran’s Threat Changes The Conversation According to CNBC, citing Iran’s state-affiliated Fars News Agency, Tehran now considers all of Elon Musk’s companies operating in the Middle East to be military targets as retaliation against the U.S. The statement specifically identified SpaceX’s Starlink infrastructure, including a regional ground station, because of its alleged support for U.S. and Israeli military operations. 

To put that into perspective, SpaceX is no longer just a commercial launch provider. Through Starlink, it has become a critical communications platform for governments, militaries, businesses, and emergency responders around the world. That dual-use nature — serving both civilian and defense customers — increasingly places the company alongside traditional defense contractors whenever geopolitical tensions rise.

Ironically, that’s also one reason investors have been so enthusiastic about SpaceX. Government demand tends to be durable.

From satellite internet to the front lines of global conflict: Why SpaceX's $1.8 trillion valuation now comes with a geopolitical bullseye. © 24/7 Wall St. The Business Is Growing, But So Is The Risk Profile The company entered the public markets with an estimated valuation approaching $1.8 trillion, reflecting investors’ expectations for continued leadership in launch services, satellite broadband, and national security contracts. SpaceX also maintains a commanding lead in orbital launches through its Falcon 9 rocket while Starlink has deployed thousands of satellites, giving it a scale competitors have yet to match.

Here’s how the competitive landscape looks:

Company Primary Business Key Competitive Strength SpaceX Launch services, Starlink broadband Lowest launch costs and largest satellite network Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) Small satellite launches Dedicated launch services for smaller payloads Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Project Kuiper Satellite broadband Backed by Amazon’s financial resources Viasat (NASDAQ:VSAT) Satellite communications Established commercial and government customers Granted, Iran’s announcement does not mean attacks will occur, nor does it suggest SpaceX’s global operations face an immediate disruption. Most of the company’s critical manufacturing and launch facilities remain in the U.S.

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That said, geopolitical threats create costs even when nothing happens. Companies may face higher insurance expenses, additional security investments, operational contingencies, or delays expanding infrastructure in sensitive regions. Those are risks investors rarely model until they become unavoidable.

The Investment Thesis Hasn’t Broken Surprisingly, the same factors drawing geopolitical attention are also reinforcing SpaceX’s competitive advantages.

Governments increasingly rely on commercial space companies rather than building every capability internally. That trend has expanded SpaceX’s addressable market across defense launches, satellite communications, and intelligence services. In many respects, becoming strategically important strengthens long-term demand even as it introduces new political risks.

The key difference for investors is that SpaceX should no longer be viewed solely as a high-growth technology company. It increasingly resembles a hybrid of a technology platform, aerospace leader, and defense contractor.

Key Takeaway In short, Iran’s threat adds another layer of uncertainty, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter SpaceX’s long-term investment case. Investors should recognize that geopolitical exposure is now part of the company’s business model, just as it is for many major defense firms. 

Regardless, SpaceX’s dominant launch position, Starlink’s expanding customer base, and growing government relationships remain the primary drivers of its long-term value. The headlines may grow more unsettling, but unless those risks begin affecting revenue, contracts, or operations, they are unlikely to outweigh the company’s powerful competitive advantages.

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Evercore ISI has launched coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, adding a high-profile bull voice just as the newly public shares cool off. The call lands with the stock down 13.27% over the past week and 13.55% over the past month, giving retirement-focused investors a fresh institutional data point to weigh against near-term volatility. The takeaway: Wall Street is beginning to formalize a long-duration bull case on SpaceX stock even after its post-IPO pullback.

Ticker Company Firm Action New Rating New Target SPCX SpaceX Evercore ISI Initiation Outperform $230 The Analyst’s Case Evercore ISI frames SpaceX as “an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity”, while conceding there is “a great deal left to prove out” and that the feasibility of certain ambitions and timelines can be debated. That balance matters. The firm is signaling conviction with acknowledged execution risk.

The financial spine of the thesis is aggressive with Evercore modeling revenue and EBITDA compounding at 106% and 157% through 2028, and argues growth “can accelerate rather than fade as the decade wears on.” Those are Evercore’s numbers, not ours, but they explain how the firm justifies its $230 target on a stock this large.

Company Snapshot SpaceX is a vertically integrated space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence company founded in 2002. It operates the Falcon and Starship launch systems and, since 2023, has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year. Its Starlink network runs approximately 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, serving customers across 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In early 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI, formally adding AI as a business pillar.

Why the Move Matters Now SPCX carries a market capitalization of roughly $1.08 trillion, yet the stock has just given back double digits in short order. A bulge-bracket initiation at Outperform with a $230 target, framed as a standard analyst price target rather than a calendar-year promise, is the kind of signal that can reset the conversation from post-IPO indigestion to structural upside.

Sentiment data reinforces the setup. Our proprietary look at sentiment has Reddit’s weekly read on SPCX sits at 57 (neutral), with recent debate centered on lockup unlocks and emerging launch competition from Japan. A credible bull note gives long-term holders something concrete to anchor to.

What It Means for Your Portfolio For growth focused investors, the Evercore ISI price target raised the ceiling of the visible bull case without erasing the risks the firm itself flagged. SpaceX stock remains a high-volatility, execution-dependent name where Starlink scaling, launch cadence, and xAI integration have to deliver. The analyst upgrade tone here is confident yet risk-aware, and that is the right frame for position sizing. Treat the $230 target as one informed view among several, and let the compounding thesis Evercore laid out be tested by the numbers SpaceX actually reports.

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© Jorge Villalba / iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

Elon Musk has had some pretty exciting, ambitious things to say about the future of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), but perhaps his more recent comments about the company’s value one day eclipsing the value of Earth itself take the cake for the most shocking and bullish thing he’s said about the space titan, which is pretty much in a space race against itself at this point.

Here come the sky-high price targets With analyst price targets flowing in from across the board, with $800 per-share targets, and a shocking $900 bull target from the likes of Citigroup (NYSE:C | C Price Prediction), questions linger as to whether Elon Musk’s latest words offer anything more than hype. While a valuation north of $11 trillion for SpaceX seems outrageous, I certainly wouldn’t count it out if Elon Musk manages to make orbital data centers and other emerging space-based businesses work.

From space tourism to asteroid mining, it’s pretty easy to dismiss such potential ventures as nothing more than a work of science fiction. Then again, the company is shooting to take the fiction out of science fiction, so I get why so many investors are more than willing to give Elon Musk the benefit of the doubt in these earlier days.

Between the Elon Musk fans who just need to have a piece and growth investors who are feeling a sense of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), the case for buying in spite of the questionable valuation metrics is quite strong. But even the most exciting company in the world can be a bad bet if one overpays.

If orbital data centers don’t work out in a timeline the market deems as acceptable, it’s hard to tell just where SpaceX shares could find themselves. Can a crash-landing be ruled out? I’m not so sure, but the bull case, in my view, is the reason to make the leap of faith with the name.

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Maybe not more than Earth, but a $10-12 trillion valuation can’t be ruled out Of course, it’s hard to tell how serious Elon Musk was when he brought up the possibility of the company being more than the rest of the Earth combined. The math doesn’t quite add up, even in a bull-case scenario, like the one outlined by Citi. If we’re talking about the next few centuries, though, perhaps anything is possible. But, of course, not all that many investors will probably want to hang onto a stock for that long!

In my view, $10-12 trillion might be the ceiling for the shares. As a part of Citi’s bull case, Starship needs to get going and be at full scale. It’ll also need SpaceX to floor it with Starlink and orbital data centers to achieve an untouchable monopoly (or a near-monopoly).

Add the AI factor into the equation, and the potential for a Moon base with robot workers and a railgun to launch spacecraft from a lunar landing, sure, I suppose SpaceX could have quite a ways to go from here, as the company looks to capture that sky-high total addressable market (TAM) the firm outlined.

The bottom line While I’ll admit that shares are starting to look more tempting as they make a round trip back to the $135 per-share IPO price, I do think that SpaceX is a super-high-risk/high-reward kind of proposition that’s only fit for true believers of Elon Musk.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Frontier Airlines and four other budget carriers with more than 1,000 planes between them will debut in-flight Wi-Fi early next year from SpaceX's Starlink, another win for the satellite internet provider.

Frontier's first Airbus plane equipped with Starlink internet will roll out in early 2027, the airline said Tuesday. CNBC reported in 2022 that Frontier was in talks with Starlink to add its first in-flight Wi-Fi service.

A Frontier spokeswoman declined to say whether flyers could use the service for free. Major airlines that have signed deals with Starlink have been offering Wi-Fi complimentary for loyalty program members.

Frontier was one of the last U.S. holdouts to add Wi-Fi. Former CEO Barry Biffle previously said the airline was hesitant to to add weight to its planes with the equipment it would need for the service.

Starlink, a part of Elon Musk's SpaceX, has signed deals with more than 40 carriers around the world, including United Airlines and American Airlines, as airlines ramp up their in-flight services and customers grow to expect at-home-quality internet in the sky. The airlines declined to disclose the terms of the agreements. SpaceX didn't immediately comment.

The carriers in the latest Starlink deal — Frontier, Mexico's Volaris, European budget carrier Wizz, Chile's Jetsmart, and the Philippines' Cebu Pacific — all share private equity firm Indigo Partners as an investor, which is led by serial airline investor Bill Franke.

Budget carriers have been under pressure to go upmarket as larger rivals post revenue growth from the front of the cabin, upending discounters' once-profitable model of no-frills seating and amenities. Frontier is planning to debut first-class seats next year.

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Joel Shulman says SpaceX (SPCX) is his firm's top holding and believes the current post-sell-off price is a good buying opportunity. He makes the case that the Elon Musk-led company is a "20-year hold.