Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) has lost almost $1 trillion in notional value since its stock peaked in the initial days following its initial public offer (IPO). As of this writing on July 16, the stock (also known as SpaceX) is trading near its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, about $133 the last time I checked.
If you watched this stock hit about $201 at the end of its third trading day, you might be wondering if this is the chance to buy in. Raymond James, which co-managed SpaceX's IPO, recently set a $800 price target on the space stock. Even the average price target, about $244, implies 83% upside.
Even if the $800 price target materialized, it would take a very large investment for SpaceX to mint new millionaires: about $166,250 at today's price. Obviously, not every investor has six figures to invest with, nor would it be prudent to put that much into a stock that still trades at about 100 times sales. The question then becomes: Even if SpaceX alone can't make you a millionaire, can it be one of several stocks that you pick that contributes to millionaire status?
In other words, is SpaceX a buy at $133 a share?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX's business is booming, and expectations are growing SpaceX is an incredible business; operationally, it is extraordinary. According to the company's own figures, it has launched more than 80% of the global mass that went into orbit annually since 2023. Its Falcon missions have achieved a 99% success rate, with 165 Falcon 9 mission in 2025.
Of the roughly 15,000 active satellites in orbit, SpaceX operates about 10,000. Subscribers to the company's Starlink internet access have jumped from about 5 million in the first quarter of 2025 to roughly 10.3 million a year later, with service now available across about 164 countries and territories.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the company's largest opportunity -- about $26.5 trillion. Yet it's also SpaceX's biggest cash drag. It invested almost $18 billion on AI development in 2025, equivalent to about 96% of its $18.7 billion revenue.
In order for SpaceX to be considered a buy today, even a weak one, its AI division needs to flip from a negative to a positive, something that many on Wall Street are expecting. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs think SpaceX's AI business could generate $322 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projects about $190 billion from AI by that year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have projected the company's revenue hitting $3.4 trillion in 2040 -- a searing compound annual growth rate of about 41%.
In that most bullish scenario, SpaceX could be worth several times more than what it is today. If it traded at five times sales, $3.4 trillion in revenue would be equivalent to a $17 trillion valuation. Assuming the share count stays the same, the stock would trade at about $1,300, or more than nine times its current price.
So, is SpaceX a buy? If all these numbers and predictions make your eyes gloss over, consider this: The market has sky-high expectations for SpaceX -- so high that any little setbacks or disappointing news could send the stock reeling down.
That volatility is why I still shy away from this stock. Nothing has led me to firmly believe that SpaceX will mint new millionaires, nor that it's even a buy at today's price. That's not because I don't trust its business; I just don't see a world in front of me in which this company's core businesses generate trillions in sales.
When that world becomes more realistic, then I might change my mind. Until then, I would hold off on buying SpaceX, at least until it trades at a lower valuation.
Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek Columnist, discusses recent losses for Elon Musk's SpaceX including a scrubbed launch and a slide in shares that equates to roughly $1T in valuations. He also talks about the "identity crisis" happening at Elon Musk's Chatbot Company.
Retail investors talked up five hot stocks during the week (July 13 to July 17) on X and Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets, driven by retail hype, earnings, listings, AI infrastructure momentum, and corporate/geopolitical news flow.
Netflix Retail investors were complaining about the stock’s poor performance on r/wallstreetbets. The stock had a 52-week range of $70.86 to $127.75, trading around $66 to $75 per share, as of the publication of this article. It declined by 40.53% over the year and 15.51% in the last six months. The stock was also down 20.70% YTD. NFLX had a weak price trend in the medium, short, and long terms, with a solid quality score as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Some retail investors were confident that the decline in ASTS stock was a buying opportunity. The stock had a 52-week range of $36.08 to $133.86, trading around $52 to $56 per share, as of the publication of this article. It advanced by 4.52% over the year and dropped 52.48% in the last six months. The stock was down 24.25% YTD. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings showed that ASTS had a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms. SK Hynix Retail investors were still confident of the AI’s memory bottleneck trade, with some thinking of buying the memory dips. Since its listing, the stock has traded in the range of $151.30 to $194.80, and around $148 to $153 per share, as of the publication of this article. It has declined by 10.41% since debuting on the bourse. SKHY maintains a weak price trend over the long, short, and medium terms with a solid growth score, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Micron Technology Several retail investors were sure of holding MU despite its decline this week, targeting space stocks. The stock had a 52-week range of $103.38 to $1,255.00, trading around $828 to $854 per share, as of the publication of this article. It advanced by 632.80% over the year, 135.20% over the last six months, and 198.94% YTD. According to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, MU was maintaining a strong price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a good quality score. Space Exploration Technologies Several retail investors were bearish on SpaceX stock. The stock has traded in the range of $130.74 to $225.64 since listing. It was down 12.59% since its debut, and lower by 37.98% over the last month, as of the publication of this article. SPCX has had a weak price since the time it listed, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Retail focus comprised AI infrastructure momentum, earnings, and corporate news-driven narratives with broader market action during the week.
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What goes up can come down. We're seeing that axiom play out with Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), better known as SpaceX. Shares of the space technology company skyrocketed immediately after its record-setting IPO. In recent weeks, though, SpaceX stock has plunged more than 30% below its peak.
However, SpaceX still boasts a market cap of over $1.7 trillion. I think there's a chance that it could grow much larger over the next decade. In fact, I predict that SpaceX stock could be worth a whopping $5 trillion or more -- if one thing happens.
Image source: Getty Images.
Putting the cloud into orbit SpaceX's crown jewel right now is its Starlink satellite internet services unit. You could make a pretty good argument that SpaceX could reach a market cap of $5 trillion if Starlink fulfills its potential and disrupts the businesses of telecom giants such as AT&T (T 0.77%) and Verizon (VZ 0.66%). However, I'm not convinced that's going to happen.
Interestingly, though, Starlink accounts for only around $1.6 trillion of SpaceX's estimated $28.5 trillion total addressable market. Most of that staggering amount, roughly $26.5 trillion, is related to artificial intelligence (AI).
SpaceXAI, formerly xAI, has already notched some big wins providing computing capacity for AI applications. For example, Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for using SpaceXAI's data center near Memphis, Tennessee. Alphabet's (GOOG 2.06%) (GOOGL 2.05%) Google Cloud is paying $920 million per month for compute capacity.
But I think that the biggest opportunity for SpaceX is processing AI workloads in space. And that's exactly what the company hopes to do with its Starmind initiative. SpaceX wants to build a constellation of up to 1 million satellites to run AI applications and beam the results back to Earth.
The advantages of space-based AI processing are impressive. Free power from always available sunlight. Significantly lower cooling requirements than in terrestrial data centers, since heat radiates into space. No protests against data centers near residential areas.
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A $5 trillion+ valuation is possible. Could SpaceX really achieve a valuation of $5 trillion if Starmind works? I think it's possible.
Granted, the largest AI cloud provider, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (AMZN 0.91%), currently has an annualized revenue run rate of around $150 billion. SpaceX would have to make a lot more than that to deserve a market cap of $5 trillion.
However, Starmind's lower costs could create demand that doesn't exist today. And no company is better positioned to make space-based AI processing a reality than SpaceX.
The technological hurdles are still daunting, though. I suspect they'll be resolved, but it could take years. Investors betting on SpaceX hitting the $5 trillion market might have to wait a while.
Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Investors who put $1,000 into SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock after the company’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 Index have seen their investment decline amid a pullback in the shares.
SpaceX stock traded around $149 on July 7, shortly after joining the Nasdaq-100. With shares changing hands at approximately $123 at press time, a $1,000 investment made following the index inclusion would now be worth about $826, representing a loss of roughly 17%.
SPCX one-month stock price chart. Source: Finbold The decline comes after SpaceX enjoyed strong momentum following its June 2026 initial public offering.
The company priced its IPO at $135 per share and quickly surged above $225 as investors piled into the stock, driven by optimism surrounding its Starlink satellite business, Starship development program, and broader commercial space ambitions.
Notably, SpaceX shares have faced pressure in recent weeks due to a combination of company-specific and broader market factors.
A delayed Starship test flight caused by engine-related issues weighed on investor sentiment, while concerns over upcoming lockup expirations raised expectations of increased share supply entering the market.
At the same time, rising short interest and a broader rotation away from high-growth stocks have contributed to the stock’s decline.
Despite the recent weakness, SpaceX continues to benefit from growing Starlink revenue and a strong backlog of government and commercial contracts, supporting its position as one of the leading companies in the space industry.
Nasdaq-100 addition marked a major milestone SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 represented a significant achievement for the newly public company.
The index tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange and is followed by numerous exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investors.
Inclusion typically increases a stock’s visibility, liquidity, and ownership among passive investment funds that track the benchmark.
The move also placed SpaceX alongside some of the largest technology companies in the market, further boosting investor interest following its IPO.
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It was the most important day for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX 5.41%) – commonly known as SpaceX – since its IPO: the 13th test launch of the Starship megarocket that forms the cornerstone of Elon Musk’s plans for continued space launch dominance.
But it ended with a whimper and not a bang.
As the countdown timer hit zero, after the engines had already ignited, the launch was scrubbed. That left the massive rocket – and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s grand ambitions – in limbo yet again.
Here’s why this delay could cause big headaches for Musk and for SpaceX investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
What happenedThe Starship megarocket is a huge vessel, standing 407 feet tall, with its Super Heavy booster powered by 33 Raptor rockets, each capable of providing 50,000 pounds of force at liftoff.
Starship’s massive size gives it a vast cargo capacity of over 100 metric tonnes (220,000 pounds). By transporting larger payloads with a single launch, Starship promises to dramatically lower the cost per ton of flying things into space.
Flight 13 was scheduled to be the second test launch of Starship’s Version 3 (V3). Version 1 had six test flights in 2023-24, and Version 2 had five in 2025. The first V3 test, Flight 12, successfully launched on May 22 after a scrubbed attempt on May 21. During Flight 12, one of the launch rockets failed to ignite, and 13 of the 33 booster engines failed to relight mid-flight, resulting in loss of the booster.
As Flight 13’s countdown timer hit zero on Thursday evening, at least four of Starship’s Raptor engines failed to ignite. The company is replacing two of them and has said it will try again on Monday evening. The ship has remained on the launch pad with its propellant removed.
If at first you don’t succeed...With his other company, Tesla (TSLA 2.47%), Musk frequently made promises and set deadlines for product launches, only to miss them repeatedly, sometimes by years. Tesla investors gave him the benefit of the doubt, and the company eventually grew to dominate the electric vehicle market.
The SpaceX investors who eagerly snapped up shares on the company’s IPO date in June would likely be willing to extend Musk the same leeway... but this time, there’s a literal race against the clock, and a deep-pocketed competitor nipping at SpaceX’s heels.
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That competitor is Blue Origin, the private company founded by Amazon (AMZN 0.91%) founder Jeff Bezos. While it was initially focused on space tourism, Blue Origin has begun flying missions for NASA. It’s put its space tourism flights on hold to focus its resources on its lunar lander vehicle, which is expected to debut later this year.
A true space raceThe Trump Administration has been eager to send astronauts back to the moon and has set a 2028 goal for a manned lunar mission, dubbed Artemis IV. That would leapfrog China, which plans to land its taikonauts on the moon by 2030.
In April, NASA’s Artemis II mission performed a successful lunar flyby, but the agency doesn’t yet have a viable vehicle to land a crew on the lunar surface. SpaceX’s Starship was originally tapped for that role, but last year, NASA announced it would use Blue Origin’s lander if it were ready first.
That means that SpaceX has just two years to demonstrate to NASA’s satisfaction that it can make it to the moon, land there, take off again, and get back to Earth, all while supporting a four-person crew. But as of right now, Starship hasn’t even managed to make it into a stable orbit around Earth.
Image source: Getty Images.
What it means for investorsSpaceX’s stock is down 38% from its all-time high, and is down more than 8% since the day before the scrubbed launch. A successful retry of Flight 13 will likely stop the bleeding, at least temporarily.
But even if Flight 13 is an unmitigated success, there will need to be a Flight 14, and a Flight 15, and more tests of ever-increasing complexity. The odds that something goes wrong on at least one are high. The amount of cash required for further development is also high.
As SpaceX continues to iterate using its rapid prototyping and “test as you fly” philosophy, investors should brace for explosive volatility both in their portfolios and on the launch pad.
Elon Musk's space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), went public on June 12 with an opening price of $150 that day. In the days that followed, stock quickly rallied to an all-time high of $225.64, resulting in a market capitalization of almost $3 trillion.
However, as of the market close on Thursday, July 16, SpaceX stock was down 45% to just $125 as of mid-afternoon Friday. Although Wall Street is forecasting significant revenue growth for the company, its stock continues to trade at a sky-high valuation, which could lead to further volatility from here.
Should retail investors take this opportunity to buy the dip, or would they be better advised to steer clear?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX is chasing $28.5 trillion worth of opportunities Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with a clear mission to make the human race interplanetary, but in the years since, it has expanded its focus. The company went on to develop the world's first reusable rocket, which dramatically lowered the cost of launching humans and commercial payloads into orbit, and also reduced the downtime between launches.
The Falcon 9 rocket is responsible for most of SpaceX's successful launches to date, but its Falcon Heavy and Starship rockets have much higher payload capacities. This means they can carry more satellites (and eventually humans) into space per trip, further reducing costs. Starship is expected to enter regular service in a couple of years with a payload capacity of 100 tons, whereas Falcon 9 can carry a maximum of 23 tons.
However, launching astronauts and commercial payloads into space is actually SpaceX's least valuable business, with an addressable market of around $370 billion. The company's satellite internet connectivity segment is capturing a slice of a much larger opportunity worth $1.6 trillion. So far, SpaceX has sent over 9,600 of its Starlink satellites into orbit, where they provide wireless broadband internet access to 10.3 million paying customers here on Earth.
The company will start launching its new V3 satellites later this year, which will offer 10 times the bandwidth of its current V2 satellites. This is where Starship will become especially valuable, because it can deploy 60 satellites at a time, whereas Falcon 9 has a maximum capacity of just 27.
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But over the long term, SpaceX actually thinks AI infrastructure will be its most valuable opportunity. The company only entered this business in February when it acquired one of Elon Musk's other companies, xAI, which came with data centers like Colossus and Colossus II. Since then, it has signed agreements to rent billions of dollars' worth of its spare computing capacity to AI developers such as Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI.
In the future, SpaceX wants to launch clusters of satellites containing AI computing servers into space, where they can run on solar energy and won't need complicated cooling systems. This infrastructure would use Starlink for its data transmission needs, so the company already has a massive advantage over any other competitors aiming to operate orbital data centers. Overall, SpaceX values its total addressable market opportunity in AI at $26.5 trillion.
Investors are still paying a huge premium for SpaceX stock SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from 2024. The internet connectivity business brought in $11.4 billion, while the space segment generated $4.1 billion, and AI infrastructure delivered $3.2 billion. But that order looks set to change in 2026 and beyond, because of the value of its recent cloud computing deals.
SpaceX has agreed to lease up to $1.25 billion worth of data center capacity per month to Anthropic, plus another $920 million worth of capacity per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years.
As a result, Wall Street analysts think SpaceX could more than double its total revenue to $39.2 billion in 2026, and then grow it to $72.7 billion in 2027.
That growth potential explains why some investors are willing to pay a hefty premium for SpaceX stock, which currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 88. That is 14 times the 6.3 P/S ratio of the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, suggesting SpaceX is heavily overvalued compared to its big-tech peers.
Even if we value SpaceX based on its potential 2027 revenue, its forward P/S ratio is still 23.4, which is nearly 4 times higher than where the Nasdaq-100 trades today. And the company is not yet profitable.
Therefore, even after its 45% decline from its peak and its 17% drop from its first-day opening price, SpaceX stock is far from cheap. In fact, I think its lofty valuation leaves it exposed to even more downside potential, so I personally won't be buying this dip.
SpaceX (SPCX 5.43%) stock is one of the most popular stocks in the market right now.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 14, 2026. The video was published on July 16, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Key Takeaways Starship's launch abort weighed on SpaceX shares but appears linked to an engine issue, not a design flaw.Starlink's expanding subscriber base continues to provide a strong recurring revenue stream for SpaceX.Despite testing risks, SpaceX's launch and satellite leadership support its long-term investment thesis. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) shares came under pressure after Starship's 13th test flight scheduled on Thursday was aborted moments before take-off. The stock’s price fell below the IPO price on Thursday following this incident. After raising a record-breaking $75 billion through its June initial public offering, SpaceX has remained one of the market's most closely watched growth stories.
With the leading-edge designing, manufacturing and rocket launching capabilities, SpaceX has gained solid market traction over the past few years. However, are the recent developments a worrying sign for investors, and does it change SpaceX’s long-term investment case?
Starship Remains Vital to SpaceX’s Growth InitiativesSpaceX’s launch franchise is the foundation of the investment case. The company has completed about 650 orbital launches and has launched more than 80% of global mass to orbit since 2023, supported by Falcon reusability and high cadence. While Falcon 9 currently serves as SpaceX's primary launch vehicle, Starship represents the company's next-generation fully reusable launch system. Engineered as one of the world’s largest and most powerful reusable launch vehicles, Starship is expected to significantly reduce the cost while carrying a substantially higher payload.
The Starship project has a significant execution risk owing to its high complexity. This risk is not limited to the Space segment because the Connectivity and AI segment also relies on future launch throughput to reach its planned scale. The company faces competition from Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) . Rocket Lab has been steadily extending its commercial launch capabilities through its Electron rocket and the upcoming Neutron launch vehicle. Electron achieved 21 launches in 2025 with 100% mission success, reinforcing reliability and customer retention.
SpaceX has repeatedly adopted a gradual development approach over the years. In each test flight, regardless of success or not, the company gathers valuable engineering data that helps improve the system. Given the high complexity of the process in developing reusable launch systems, temporary setbacks are not uncommon. Despite Rocket Lab’s growing prowess in commercial launch, SpaceX remains the leader in the industry, backed by its launch cadence, payload capability and reusable rocket technology.
Starlink Remains a Major Growth EngineBeyond Starship, Starlink remains one of SpaceX's strongest long-term growth drivers. As of March 31, 2026, the company boasts a subscriber base of around 10.3 million. With approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit, Starlink service is available in 164 countries and markets. Solid subscriber addition, expanding global coverage and continuous improvement in networking capacity are major driving factors. The company has also developed one of the largest satellite-to-mobile constellations and provides direct-to-device voice, messaging and data services. Expanding the Starlink business is providing the company with better earnings visibility and a diversified revenue mix. Strong recurring revenue from this segment will continue to support overall revenue growth and enable SpaceX to go through the development challenges of Starship.
However, it is to be noted that Starlink’s business faces competition from Viasat, Inc. (VSAT - Free Report) in the satellite-based broadband internet space. Viasat has built a strong presence in aviation, enterprise and government communications. It has completed the next-generation global ViaSat-3 constellation with the successful launch of ViaSat-3 Flight 3 on April 29, 2026, targeted to the Asia-Pacific region. Starlink’s rapidly expanding low-Earth-orbit constellation and a strong focus on technology upgrades are expected to give a competitive edge in the long run.
Should Investors Worry?The launch hiccup may impact investors’ sentiment in the near term. However, some key things to take into account are that the launch was aborted automatically, indicating that engine monitoring, safety systems and software worked. The company is proceeding with corrective action. It will replace two raptor engine and is aiming to complete the launch early next week.
However, SpaceX is scaling several capital-intensive platforms simultaneously. Despite SpaceX's strong long-term growth prospects, execution remains critical. Capital expenditures increased to $20.7 billion in 2025 as the company continued investing heavily in Starship development and Starlink expansion. While occasional testing setbacks are expected, prolonged delays could also delay commercialization and revenue-generating opportunities.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The two sides are discussing an arrangement in which SpaceX would provide computing capacity to the department at a cost of up to several billion dollars, people familiar with the matter said.
The satellite race is intensifying as Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +5.25%) seek to connect the world from orbit, leaving investors to decide which pioneer offers better long-term potential.
Space Exploration Technologies — SpaceX — provides high-speed internet through its Starlink constellation and dominates the global rocket launch market. AST SpaceMobile focuses on a direct-to-device cellular network, eliminating the need for specialized ground equipment. Both companies aim to bridge the global digital divide, but their business models and financial health vary significantly.
The case for SpaceXSpace Exploration Technologies provides rocket launch services to commercial and government agencies while scaling its Starlink broadband business. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink reported approximately 10.3 million subscribers across 164 distinct markets. The company leverages its reusable rocket technology to deploy its own satellite constellations at a significantly lower cost than traditional aerospace firms.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $18.7 billion, an increase of approximately 33% from the $14 billion reported in the previous year. Despite this top-line growth, the company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion for the fiscal year. This performance reflects the massive capital requirements for building out the global Starlink network and developing next-generation heavy-lift rockets.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 1.4x, indicating the company maintains sufficient short-term assets to cover its immediate liabilities. Free cash flow, calculated as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was about negative $14 billion in FY 2025. Note that stock-based compensation (SBC) accounted for roughly 28.7% of operating cash flow, inflating reported cash generation, since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.
The case for AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network designed to connect standard, unmodified smartphones directly to satellites. The company has established partnerships with approximately 60 mobile network operators, including AT&T (T 0.77%) and Verizon (VZ 0.71%), targeting nearly 3 billion potential subscribers. This business model focuses on a revenue-sharing agreement within the communication stocks space rather than selling direct hardware to consumers.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.
The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, reflecting heavy investment in its satellite constellation.
Risk profile comparisonSpace Exploration Technologies faces significant risks associated with the high cost and technical complexity of its satellite and rocket programs. Any delays in launch schedules or mission failures could disrupt the expansion of the Starlink network and impact customer trust. Additionally, the company must navigate evolving international regulations regarding orbital debris and spectrum allocation that could limit its growth in certain regions.
AST SpaceMobile deals with financial strain, having recently issued $1 billion in convertible notes that could dilute existing shareholders. The business success depends on the unproven Block 2 satellites and proprietary ASIC chips, which face potential delays and cost overruns. The company also competes against better-funded rivals like Space Exploration Technologies and must maintain complex regulatory approvals from the FCC to operate its network.
Valuation comparisonSpace Exploration Technologies carries a lower P/S ratio than AST SpaceMobile, although both are high relative to the sector.
MetricSpace Exploration TechnologiesAST SpaceMobileSector BenchmarkForward P/En/an/a240.6xP/S ratio88.9177xSector benchmark uses the SPDR XLI sector ETF.
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?The success of Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) has made founder Elon Musk the richest man in the world and given him the expectation that he can make an even greater fortune out of SpaceX, as Space Exploration Technologies Corp is known. The business certainly has market support behind it, raising the world’s largest IPO, $85.7 billion.
SpaceX's various businesses intend to leverage the company's core launch capabilities, done with reusable rockets. The ability to reuse boosters significantly lowers per-launch costs and spreads fixed manufacturing costs across multiple missions. Expectations are that scaling up quickly will happen, with Wall Street analysts projecting $39 billion in sales for fiscal 2026 with a much lower net loss, around $1.6 billion, and move into profitability in 2027.
The lack of free cash flow looks to be crushing; however, projections indicate free cash flow will be negative $28 billion this year, jumping to negative $67 billion in 2027.
AST SpaceMobile doesn’t have the grand ideas of SpaceX (no Mars colonies planned here), but the organization expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone (VOD +0.74%), Alphabet (GOOGL 2.05%), American Tower (AMT +0.68%), Bell Canada, Telus (TU 1.79%), and Rakuten in Japan.
By the end of the year, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow looks to be much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.
While SpaceX has the hype from its high-profile founder and its extravagant projections about far-off businesses, it, too, is mainly a network provider right now. Given AST SpaceMobile appears more focused on its business plan and will probably be the earlier of the two to turn a profit, it’s the space stock to buy in 2026.
After a wild first month, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.61%), better known as SpaceX, is now below its IPO price of $135, and well under its initial trading price of $150. As of mid-afternoon Thursday, shares were changing hands for around $131. And from the peak of $225.64 it hit in its first week on the market, SpaceX is down 42%. Essentially, every investor who bought in after the IPO is now underwater.
For investors considering taking advantage of this opportunity to buy SpaceX stock for less than its IPO price, the question is where it might head from here. In the near term, that answer could depend significantly on a couple of major events coming in August. Let's review those upcoming catalysts, and consider what a $10,000 investment made today might be worth after the dust settles.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What's coming up for SpaceX SpaceX hasn't announced a date for its first earnings report as a public company yet, but it's expected to happen on or around Aug. 6. SpaceX's financials have been a mixed bag so far. Its connectivity segment, which primarily consists of its Starlink satellite broadband unit, has been the bright spot. Of the company's $4.7 billion in Q1 revenue, connectivity accounted for $3.3 billion, and it's SpaceX's only profitable segment right now.
The first post-IPO earnings report will give investors a chance to see how revenue is growing and whether SpaceX is getting closer to profitability. If revenue and income make sizable jumps, that could start to bring SpaceX's valuation into more reasonable territory.
The other reason August will be a critical month for SpaceX is that it's when insiders will be able to start selling their shares. The space company put staggered lock-up periods in place for insiders and private stakeholders. These early shareholders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their stock starting on the second trading day after its first post-IPO earnings report. They'll be able to sell an additional 10% if SpaceX stock trades at 30% or more above its IPO price for at least five of the 10 trading days before its earnings release. That seems unlikely at the moment, but considering how volatile SpaceX has been, it's still a possibility.
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The impact of the earnings report will depend on the numbers, but the additional shares could create selling pressure regardless, as insiders will likely start to take some of their profits.
SpaceX stock could be due for more difficulties in the near term. Even after its recent dip, it still trades at about 92 times last year's sales. It will most likely still look richly valued after its next earnings report, more shares will be hitting the market, and the hype that led to its initial pop seems to have worn off.
I don't think SpaceX stock will crash, but I expect it to continue losing value and trade in the $110 to $120 range by September. If you were to invest $10,000 in SpaceX at around $131 a share, in six weeks, your investment would be worth roughly $8,400 to $9,200 if this prediction proves accurate. Given the risks, it may be wise to wait for SpaceX's valuation to come down even further before investing.
The stock has tumbled nearly 40% from its post-IPO high, erasing the gains that once sent shares soaring above $200 and slipping below its $135 IPO price. For many investors, the obvious question is whether the excitement has faded as quickly as it arrived.
Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, believes that’s the wrong question entirely.
Looking At The Wrong Time HorizonFor Tengler, the recent selloff says more about investor psychology than it does about SpaceX’s long-term prospects.
“I don’t invest for the next three or four weeks,” she said. “I invest with a three-, five-, or 10-year time period.”
That distinction matters because some of the market’s biggest winners looked far less convincing during their early years as public companies.
“It’s got some parallels to the Meta IPO, but in our view it’s more analogous to Amazon,” she said.
The comparison isn’t about identical businesses. It’s about how transformational companies often force investors to endure years of volatility while the underlying business compounds in value.
The Price Isn’t the ThesisSpaceX’s recent decline has reignited debates over whether the stock ran too far, too fast after its blockbuster debut.
Tengler isn’t dismissing those concerns. Instead, she argues they’re being asked too early.
For long-term investors, the more important question isn’t whether SpaceX should trade above or below its IPO price today. It’s whether the company’s businesses — from Starlink’s rapidly expanding satellite internet network to its dominance in commercial launches — continue to strengthen over the next decade.
That framework shifts the conversation away from technical levels and toward execution.
After all, Amazon spent years disappointing investors who focused on quarterly share-price swings while rewarding those who focused on the business it was building.
Volatility Is Part Of The JourneyTengler acknowledged that the stock could remain volatile in the near term, particularly after its explosive run immediately following the IPO.
Rather than chasing momentum, she said periods of weakness are when long-term investors should begin paying closer attention.
“If it continues to decline, we will, in fact, step in,” Tengler said.
Her broader message is that SpaceX’s nearly 40% pullback doesn’t necessarily change the investment thesis—it simply changes the price at which investors can buy into it.
For traders, the recent selloff may be a warning sign.
For investors thinking in five or 10 years, Tengler suggests it may be something else entirely: the kind of volatility that has accompanied many of the market’s most transformative companies before.
Image via Shutterstock
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Falling below $125 per share today, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.42%) stock is officially a broken IPO now -- trading $10 below the point at which it priced its IPO last month. Investors who missed out on the IPO, therefore, can count themselves lucky they didn't lose money.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
But why is SpaceX down at all? And specifically, why is it down 4.7% through 12:10 p.m. ET today?
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Scrub one launch The most obvious catalyst is that SpaceX was forced to scrub a planned Starship test flight last night after at least two Raptor engines on the Starship's Super Heavy booster failed to ignite. CEO Elon Musk says those engines will need to be replaced, delaying Starship's "lucky" 13th test flight until early next week.
To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.
-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026 What it means for SpaceX stock As reasons for a sell-off go, this one's kind of weak. On the one hand, yes, a lot of SpaceX's hopes and dreams hinge on Musk making Starship a success. The megarocket is the only launch vehicle on Earth capable of carrying Musk's V.2 Mobile and V3 Starlink satellites to orbit. In its Human Landing System form, Starship is also the designated hitter on NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon.
That said, Starship is a project years in the making. Delaying liftoff by a few more days isn't going to do SpaceX any harm -- certainly not as much harm as trying to fly and failing because the engines didn't work. Long story short:
If you liked SpaceX stock as an investment yesterday, before the launch scrub, there's absolutely no reason to like it any less today.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) came public last month in one of the most anticipated IPOs of the decade, and the reception on day one was everything Elon Musk could have wanted.
Nearly 185 million shares, or about 29% of the public float, are now sold short, representing $25 billion in wagers, according to CNBC.
This marks a significant increase from just three weeks ago when short interest was between 5% and 7%. The surge in short selling comes as SPCX’s stock struggles, having dropped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday.
Short Sellers Increase PositionsThe increase in short selling activity has been dramatic, with short interest ballooning from an estimated 40 million shares to 185 million shares.
Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3 Partners, noted the continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO. CNBC reported this trend has contributed to the stock’s downward momentum.
SpaceX Stock Dips Below IPO PriceTechnical AnalysisSPCX is currently on a six-day losing streak, with its market cap shrinking by approximately $240.01 billion over the past week. Despite the recent downturn, SPCX trades 43.74% above its 50-day simple moving average of $87.04 and 218.27% above its 200-day simple moving average of $39.31, indicating a long-term uptrend remains intact.
Photo: Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.42%) stock briefly fell below $125 a share on Friday, before recovering to about a 4% loss as of 12:55 p.m. ET in the afternoon -- and it doesn't matter.
Whether down 5% or only 4% today, SpaceX stock is officially a broken IPO, returning to just pennies above its IPO price Wednesday, and falling well below it Thursday and Friday. But here's the real question.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is SpaceX's below-IPO share price good or bad news? That's a tougher question to answer. On the one hand, SpaceX stock has lost the momentum that drove it up 67% from its IPO price in its first three days of trading. The company faces new competition from China, which just completed its first successful water landing of a reusable rocket. It's also been forced to postpone a Starship test flight when multiple engines refused to ignite at launch.
Worst of all, SpaceX's big bet on turning itself from a space stock into an artificial intelligence stock has gone awry, with investors selling off AI stocks in droves the past several days -- "SpaceXAI" among them.
We are now @SpaceXAI. pic.twitter.com/ema66xDWC9
-- SpaceXAI (@SpaceXAI) July 6, 2026 Is SpaceX stock cheap now?
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Those are all reasons to avoid SpaceX stock -- but now here's one reason to buy SpaceX instead:
At its new share price of $125, SpaceX stock costs 192 times forecast 2027 earnings, but earnings are expected to grow so fast that by 2028 the P/E ratio drops to 33, and by 2029 -- just 22.5.
Analysts see SpaceX earnings growing on average 152% annually over the next five years, more than doubling every year. While the future's uncertain, and the end may always be near, there's now a reasonable case to be made that SpaceX stock is approaching fair value -- and will soon be cheap enough to buy.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
The Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SpaceX ETF (CBOE:SPCQ) is up about 10% today, trading around $23 per share, as shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) slide below $125, $10 under the original IPO price.
SPCQ is a leveraged, inverse, single-stock ETF. It is engineered to deliver roughly negative two times the daily performance of SpaceX. Put simply: when SpaceX falls 5% in a session, SPCQ is designed to rise about 10% that day, before fees. SCPQ is up 91% since it launched in mid-June.
Why SpaceX Is Sliding Last night, SpaceX scrubbed a planned test flight for Starship V3, the newest spacecraft in Elon Musk’s arsenal. As he noted on X, “some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort.”
He followed up by sharing that “most probable launch timing is early next week” after the crews have diagnosed what went wrong.
For a stock as hyped, and as expensive by any traditional valuation metric, as SpaceX, any misstep can spook investors, and that’s what we’re seeing here. When you’re paying 80x+ annual revenue for a stock, it’s priced for perfection.
Underneath this specific news is a genuine debate about valuation. Commentators have flagged the enormous capital SpaceX needs to fund Starship, the Starlink satellite broadband build-out, and its xAI/Grok artificial-intelligence arm acquired earlier in 2026.
How the 2X Inverse Mechanic Actually Works SPCQ does not hand you a short position in SpaceX to hold. The fund uses swap agreements and short-dated options, backed by Treasuries and cash, to synthetically deliver negative 200% daily inverse leveraged exposure to SPCX. Crucially, that target resets every single trading day.
The daily reset matters enormously for anyone thinking about holding the fund. Over any period longer than one session, SPCQ’s return will diverge, sometimes sharply, from a simple negative-two-times SpaceX return. Compounding works in the holder’s favor during a steady one-way decline (which is why SPCQ has run so far as SpaceX has fallen for weeks), and against the holder during choppy, whipsaw markets. This is the volatility drag effect that has historically eroded leveraged and inverse ETFs held for weeks or months. A holder can be directionally right about a stock and still lose money in a product like this if the path is jagged enough.
Small Fund, High Costs, Tactical Use Only SPCQ is a very small, very specialized vehicle. Recent data pegs its assets at roughly $22.53 million, and the prospectus lists a gross and net expense ratio of 1.31%. Those fees compound daily against the holder. Stacked together, the risks are considerable: leverage, inverse exposure, single-stock concentration, and a newly public underlying whose price discovery is still in its early innings.
That is why products like this are designed strictly as short-term tactical or hedging tools. Today it is doing exactly what a trader would want it to do: amplifying a sharp down move in SpaceX into a double-digit gain. The same math will work in reverse the day SpaceX rallies. Investors watching the ETF should keep an eye on whether SpaceX starts rallying or continues lower, and remember that SPCQ’s headline numbers reflect a specific, path-dependent daily strategy tied to each session’s move.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Super Heavy v3 Booster 20 hangs from the chop sticks at Pad 2 as it prepares to roll back to the SpaceX launch production facility in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 17, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to replace two booster Raptor engines before the next launch attempt, Musk saidFour of the booster's 33 engines did not ignite during Thursday's aborted test flightStarship could carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight test, the company saidWASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Monday for another attempt to launch its Starship rocket after a last-second abort during engine ignition on Thursday, a brief setback that nevertheless wiped roughly $100 billion from the newly public company's market value.
The company's Starship rocket ignited its engines for a 13th test flight from Texas, but stopped short of lifting off when an automated abort command shut the engines down early. Four of the Starship booster's 33 engines did not ignite, according to a live SpaceX depiction of the booster's engines.
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A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known for dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon. Still, SpaceX shares have dropped by roughly 6% to $124.30 since the abort, erasing roughly $100 billion in equity value.
Musk wrote on X that the abort was triggered because "some of the engines didn't start." SpaceX on Friday hoisted the Starship upper stage off its Super Heavy booster and plans to replace two of the booster's Raptor engines "to be confident of a good flight," Musk said, without explaining why some engines didn't start.
"Most probable launch timing is early next week," he added. SpaceX's website said Starship could launch "as early as Monday, July 20."
The share price drop offers an early glimpse into how the newly public company's investors might judge the progress of a high-tech rocket program on which SpaceX's most lofty ambitions rely.
The stock had already been sliding from a post-IPO high of $225.64 and fell below SpaceX's $135 IPO price on Wednesday. The abort accelerated the decline.
"If this is how the market reacts to a precautionary abort, I can't wait to see how it responds to a successful flight," Chad Anderson, CEO of Space Capital and a SpaceX investor since 2017, said via text message.
"Zoom out and none of this changes the thesis: we're in the early innings of a multi-decade infrastructure cycle, and Starship is the centerpiece," he added. "Day-to-day price action is noise against the backdrop. This is a long-term opportunity."
Some SpaceX employees on X, which is owned by SpaceX, sought to explain the abort and delay to next week.
Director of Starship engineering Shana Diez said on X that the Thursday launch scrub was the first time a fully stacked Starship rocket lit its engines and then aborted.
"While similar to a wet dress rehearsal," she said, referring to a practice run of a rocket launch, "there is a lot going on and any first time operation comes with additional risk."
"This is how we learn safely and implement mitigations for all scenarios," said Jessie Anderson, a Starship production engineer who sometimes hosts the company's launch live streams.
PRESSURE RISINGSpaceX has launched 12 Starship test flights since 2023, some ending in explosive failures and other hard testing setbacks that have become hallmarks of SpaceX's test-to-failure development ethos, a risky and capital-intensive approach that has been key to the company's quick growth.
But the pressure is rising for Starship to begin operational flights after nearly a decade in development and over $15 billion spent so far.
Two pillars of SpaceX's future growth hinge on Starship: expanding the Starlink network to beam service directly to mobile devices and eventually launching thousands to potentially a million AI-processing satellites into space.
SpaceX aims to launch the first Starlink satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed by routine launches, the company said in its prospectus.
Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites on its 13th flight test to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink network's laser communication links, but those satellites will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.
The rocket will launch out of Florida for the first time "potentially" by year's end, SpaceX engineer Kate Tice said Thursday on the Starship live stream.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
SpaceX stock is at significant support. What’s pressuring SPCX? Engine Failures Force a Last-Second Starship AbortThe damage began during Thursday’s session when the stock shed 3.08% before sliding another 3.08% in after-hours trading to close at $127.07. The catalyst was a launch termination that came with mere seconds remaining on the countdown after four of Starship’s 33 Raptor engines refused to fire. The remaining 29 engines cut out automatically in response and ground crews began draining propellant from the vehicle shortly after.
Musk took to X to explain that two of the faulty engines would be pulled from the rocket entirely and swapped out before another window is attempted, with early next week identified as the earliest realistic opportunity for a second try.
The scrubbed mission had been carrying significant expectations. The test now waits for another day, pushing back a milestone that investors and the broader space industry have been watching closely.
SPCX’s Short-Term ChallengesZoom out and the longer‑term structure still looks constructive. Zoom in and the near‑term picture is under pressure. SPCX is trading 18.4% below its 20-day SMA $151.60, a clear sign that the latest leg higher has cooled and sellers have controlled the short window. It remains well above the 50-day SMA $87.01 and far above the 200-day SMA $39.28, which keeps the bigger trend bullish even if the stock is acting like it wants to test investor patience.
Momentum is driving the conversation. MACD is below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which signals fading upside thrust unless buyers can reassert control. The moving‑average stack still leans supportive over time with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA and a June golden cross where the 50-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. Those conditions often encourage buy‑the‑dip behavior when pullbacks deepen.
Price action is not cooperating with textbook setups. The stock is now below the 52-week low $130.74 and well off the June peak at $225.64, so rebounds are likely to be treated as prove‑it rallies until SPCX can start reclaiming shorter‑term levels.
Key levels are straightforward. $135.82 is the first meaningful hurdle, sitting near the 20-day EMA and acting as a potential trend reset line after a sharp drop. On the downside, $126.30 is the immediate battleground, especially with price trading below the prior $130.74 zone. This area is where bulls may try to defend before the narrative turns more negative.
SPCX Shares Are DecliningSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 3.90% at $126.00 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is trading at a new 52-week low, according to Benzinga Pro.
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SpaceX SPCX stock is tumbling further this morning after the firm’s 13th Starship test flight was aborted right before liftoff as several engines failed to start properly.
The development adds fuel to the bearish fire that has already assembled a $25 billion wall against billionaire Elon Musk’s space infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) behemoth.
As of writing, around 185 million SPCX shares are sold short, meaning skeptics now control nearly 29% of the giant’s publicly tradeable float, a huge jump from about 7% only just a few weeks ago.
SpaceX stock is currently hovering around $124 – about 8% below its initial public offering (IPO) price.
Short sellers are piling against SPCX stock primarily because of its astronomical valuation, heavy corporate debt, and an imminent wave of share unlocking.
SpaceX is still going for about 90x sales, facing continuous pressure to deliver flawless execution, which the test flight failure today reinforces is hard to achieve for a space infrastructure company.
The recent $25 billion bond issuance to finance “capital-intensive” AI infrastructure and ongoing rocket development has sparked heated debates over long-term profitability timelines.
Crucially, because the initial IPO float comprised only 5% of the total 13 billion shares outstanding, a huge portion of insider equity is currently restricted.
Bears anticipate that as major tranches open up, beginning with an 11% unlock tied to Q2 earnings, the sudden influx of tradable stock will dilute buyers and further depress share prices.
For retail and institutional investors, this rising wave of short-selling signals an era of intense near-term volatility and a fundamental shift in market psychology.
This bearish sentiment suggests Wall Street’s post-IPO euphoria has officially unwound.
Market participants are now moving away from speculative excitement and demanding concrete financial accountability, especially after the firm’s multi-billion dollar losses last year.
With nearly a third of the float heavily shorted, SpaceX shares are highly sensitive to both technical and fundamental developments.
Simply put, the asset is poised for explosive swings; any overwhelmingly positive catalyst – such as a successful Starship launch sequence or a surprise earnings beat – could force short sellers to rapidly cover their positions, triggering an intense short squeeze.
Despite the rising short interest and the Starship test flight failure on July 17th, Wall Street remains bullish as ever on what the future holds for SPCX shares.
Of the 33 analysts who currently cover the space infrastructure and AI giant, at least 24 recommend buying it at the current price.
More importantly, the consensus price objective on SpaceX sits at about $235 currently, indicating potential for a nearly 90% rally over the next 12 months.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) investors are watching retirement savings crater. One Reddit user put the pain bluntly: “So my Roth IRA is down 25 percent, I went and made a few options trades in Robinhood that also went the other way.”
That confession, posted to r/WallStreetBets and surfaced by Futurism on July 15, 2026, reveals the human cost of a fast-souring trade. The user disclosed they had leveraged their Roth IRA with SpaceX options calls at $160 and $145 strikes, a high-risk bet that wiped out several hundred thousand dollars of retirement savings.
How the SpaceX Stock Trade Unraveled SpaceX went public last month, pricing its IPO at $135 and opening at $150 in June 2026. Shares rocketed to an all-time high of $225 before reversing hard. As of July 15, the stock sat near $136, down roughly 40% from the peak and almost 9% over five trading days.
The decline has continued. As of July 17, market data shows SPCX trading around $124.03, after falling 5.4% on the day and about 14% over the past week. Anyone who bought near the top is now deeply underwater.
The Skeptics Were Already There On WallStreetBets, sympathy was sparse. “Crazy that people knew the insanely bloated valuation but still went long,” one user wrote, capturing the collective amnesia that grips hyped stocks on the way up.
Skeptics extended beyond Reddit. Reuters framed the sell-off as a “confidence test” for the IPO. Matthew Maley of Miller Tabak was direct: “It raises the narrative that the stock is up on fluff, on speculation, on froth, and not on real fundamentals.” Greg Halter of Carnegie Investment Counsel warned that early buyers hoping to “make a killing” would be disappointed.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SpaceX priced at a multitrillion-dollar valuation despite losing billions per quarter, with much of its worth resting on Elon Musk’s vision of AI data centers in space and a city on Mars rather than current profitability. When a valuation leans that heavily on the future, sentiment drives the stock.
Why a Roth IRA Loss Cuts Deeper This episode illustrates a principle about using leverage and options inside a retirement account.
A Roth IRA is one of the most powerful tools an ordinary saver has because gains compound untaxed over decades. Contributions can be withdrawn without penalty, but turning the account into a venue for short-dated options on a newly public, pre-profit stock inverts its purpose. A loss inside a Roth is uniquely unforgiving: there is no capital loss to harvest, and selling a battered position permanently forfeits contribution room that can never be rebuilt.
The investor who watched a quarter of their retirement vanish is a warning. The hype around a company can be real, the technology revolutionary, and the stock can still hand a devastating loss, especially when a saver borrows against their own future to chase it.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Shares of space names are sliding Friday morning as a sharp one-month reversal deepens across the sector. AST SpaceMobile stock (NASDAQ:ASTS) is down 32% over the past month, and SpaceX shares (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are down 34%, trading at new post-IPO lows.
The damage during the past month extends across even more space-sector names. Rocket Lab stock (NASDAQ:RKLB) has slid 36%, and Virgin Galactic shares (NYSE:SPCE) are off 28%. Meanwhile, the diversified Procure Space ETF (NYSEARCA:UFO) is down 14% over the same stretch.
The question investors are asking is whether the sector is broken or simply shaking out excess. The data suggests the latter, though it’s a brutal, high-volatility reversal after a massive run.
Starship Scrub and Convertible Notes Fuel the Selloff SpaceX’s Starship V3 Flight 13 was scrubbed Thursday night. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X that some engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort, with another attempt expected in a few days. The scrub was expected to be a positive catalyst and instead deepened the slide, with SpaceX having gone public on June 12.
JPMorgan’s Seth Seifman remains cautious, focused on how quickly the second stage can refly and on refurbishment cost and time. He also noted short sellers have built a large bearish position in SpaceX shares.
AST SpaceMobile stock’s 2026 low follows a surprise $1 billion convertible senior notes raise this week, priced at 1.625% and due 2034 with a $79.57 conversion price that sparked dilution fears. Options traders Jon and Pete Najarian called the structure “a pretty strong bet to the upside” given the conversion price, while stressing AST SpaceMobile stock is extremely volatile with implied volatility at 100%.
Rocket Lab shares are up slightly in Friday morning trading. The company features a vertically integrated business model that Rocket Lab’s peers may want to emulate. Virgin Galactic stock has been swept up in the same speculative-space unwind.
Goldman Says Volatile, Not Doomed Per Goldman Sachs reporting, its U.S. space and satellite basket is five times as volatile as the S&P 500 and twice as volatile as a comparable AI basket. Yet, the basket was still up 13% this year through July 14 after surging more than 360% over the prior two years. SpaceX was added to the U.S. space and satellite basket on July 14.
Goldman’s Louis Miller stated that the theme has evolved beyond the purely speculative, though “investor enthusiasm will likely move ahead of fundamentals at times,” making the path “uneven.” He added that the “picks and shovels” providers across communications infrastructure, semiconductors, materials, and manufacturing could lead the next leg.
Goldman also noted that some space businesses could turn profitable next year, with the broader basket profitable by 2027. That framing supports viewing the recent selloff as a violent shakeout within a still-up long-term speculative theme, rather than a structural collapse.
UFO Offers a Diversified Way to Play the Theme The Procure Space ETF illustrates the value of diversification. UFO shares are down 14% over the past month, a fraction of the drawdowns in the individual names. As of April 30, the fund held AST SpaceMobile at 4% and Rocket Lab at 5%, plus a small Virgin Galactic position, and did not hold SpaceX.
The fund is a narrow, globally diversified thematic space product with concentration risk and no leverage. That mix cushioned the drawdown, but it also caps upside on any single-name rebound. For investors who want space exposure without single-stock blowup risk, the ETF is one route.
What to Watch Next The bull case rests on falling launch and satellite costs, rising orbital-broadband demand, and expanding defense budgets tied to programs like Golden Dome. On the other side, the bear case is extreme volatility, largely unprofitable companies, dilution risk at AST SpaceMobile, and execution setbacks like the SpaceX Starship scrub.
Retail traders remain cautious. In a StockTwits poll, space trailed memory and neoclouds among beaten-down sectors investors wanted to buy. Given the 100% implied volatility on AST SpaceMobile stock, investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest.
Investors can watch for the next Starship attempt in the coming days, any acquisition or partnership announcement tied to AST SpaceMobile’s $1 billion raise, and Rocket Lab’s Neutron debut launch targeted for Q4 2026. Those catalysts could reset the narrative in either direction.
Key Takeaways Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
The wild ride for SpaceX shares has picked up momentum.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock hit a fresh post-IPO low on Friday morning, putting it on track for a sixth straight day of losses, after the company scrapped a rocket test flight late yesterday. Shares were recently down more than 5% at $124, a far cry from the highs above $225 set a month ago just days after the company’s record-breaking IPO.
Though SpaceX remains among the world’s most-valuable companies, the slump has trimmed its market capitalization to roughly $1.6 trillion from nearly $3 trillion last month.
Commenting on the planned Starship test flight in a post on X, CEO Elon Musk said late Thursday, “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort.” He added that the next launch attempt could happen in a few days.1
There hasn’t been much for SpaceX investors to cheer about in recent weeks, even as the stock has been added to the Nasdaq 100 and other major stock indexes, and as Wall Street investors remain bullish on the prospects for the space exploration, connectivity and AI company. Most analysts have a “buy” recommendation on the stock, with their average price target above $290, according to Visible Alpha.
Investor sentiment has turned amid a broader downturn for AI stocks, while the upcoming expiration of lock-up agreements could add to the volatility. Those agreements, which are set to start expiring in August, keep initial shareholders from selling the stock.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseThe Ratings GameThe Ratings GameEchoStar’s stock has for months been seen as a way to more cheaply get exposure to SpaceXJuly 17, 2026, 12:18 p.m. ET
EchoStar’s star might be on the rise and worth a fresh look after a volatile stretch, according to analysts.
The stock ECHO surged late last year after the company agreed to sell billions of dollars’ worth of spectrum rights to AT&T T and, later, to SpaceX SPCX. As part of its dealings with SpaceX, EchoStar will receive SpaceX common shares, which established it as a proxy for the then-private company. Its SpaceX stake is worth $34.4 billion as of Thursday.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares fell on Friday for a fifth consecutive session after the company's Starship rocket automatically aborted a test launch moments before liftoff because of an engine ignition issue.
Shares of SpaceX opened 4% lower at $126, below the company’s June initial public offering price of $135.
The launch attempt at SpaceX's Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, was halted just seconds before the planned liftoff during the ignition sequence. Launch telemetry showed that four of the rocket's 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite, triggering the automated safety system to shut down the remaining engines and keep the vehicle on the launch pad.
Launch teams then began offloading propellant from the rocket.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wrote on the social media platform X. "Now offloading propellant. Next launch attempt hopefully in a few days."
In a follow-up post, Musk wrote that SpaceX would replace two Raptor engines "to be confident of a good flight," with the next launch attempt targeted for early next week.
The mission would have marked the 13th test flight of Starship and was carrying 20 upgraded V3 Starlink satellites intended to test orbital communications.
The US Federal Aviation Administration cleared SpaceX to resume Starship test flights earlier this week following an investigation into the company's previous test in May. During that mission, the Starship upper stage completed its planned trajectory toward the Indian Ocean, but the Super Heavy booster lost multiple engines before its landing burn and descended uncontrolled into the Gulf of Mexico.
The latest test marked the first full-scale Starship launch attempt to be aborted at the final seconds before liftoff, with the rocket's automated launch system preventing the vehicle from leaving the pad after detecting insufficient engine performance.
When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.07%) debuted last month, it became the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever. However, after a blistering start, the stock has fallen back down to earth and now trades around its IPO price.
Let's look at three reasons I think the company (commonly called SpaceX) could lose half its value over the next year.
Images source: The White House.
1. An extreme valuation It's not uncommon for IPOs to debut at frothy valuations, but SpaceX takes this to a whole other galaxy. The company has a nearly $2 trillion market cap, making it one of the 10 largest companies in the world. However, its revenue increased by only 33% to $18.7 billion last year while the company recorded an operating loss.
The company is expected to see a meaningful acceleration in revenue this year, with Morgan Stanley projecting sales will climb to nearly $45 billion. Nonetheless, that still values SpaceX at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 40 times for what is ultimately a business with high capital expenditures that is likely to burn cash for about the next decade. In fact, Morgan Stanley does not project that it will become free cash flow positive until 2035.
As such, not only does the stock carry an extreme valuation, but it will also need to take on debt or issue equity on top of that.
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2. Unrealistic goals and timelines With not much to justify its current valuation in the form of revenue or profits, CEO Elon Musk instead has made a bevy of promises and predictions to get investors excited. Eventually, these will have to be realized, or investors may lose faith. However, Musk has a poor track record in this area, with The New York Times recently reporting that fewer than 20% of his past predictions were delivered on schedule.
Among Musk's recent promises for SpaceX have been a data center in space by next year, the company generating $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, and launching five uncrewed ships to Mars later this year with a fleet of Tesla Optimus robots. All are unlikely to happen.
The Mars Mission and orbital AI data centers both have big technical hurdles that still need to be overcome. For the Mars Mission, the biggest obstacle is refueling, as its largest rocket, Starship, uses up most of its fuel to reach low Earth orbit. Musk has a history of making promises about landing on Mars, but has consistently missed deadlines.
Meanwhile, putting a data center in space would require the company to solve the issue of chips being affected by cosmic radiation and to devise a way to cool a system in the vacuum of space. Coming up with solutions for those obstacles will take time and won't happen in the next year. Meanwhile, $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 is an outlandish number that would need everything to go the company's way.
Missing out on Musk's predictions could eventually weigh on the stock.
3. Lockup expirations Perhaps the biggest catalyst for SpaceX shares to plummet over the next year is that many more of them will hit the open market. At its IPO, fewer than 5% of its shares were available to be traded, but the number to hit the open market will expand exponentially over the next year as the company faces 15 lockup expirations over this period.
The first lockup expiration will come later this month or in early August after the company's first earnings release, when insiders will be permitted to sell 911.5 million shares. That's more than the 555.6 million shares the company initially offered in its IPO.
With a flood of new shares hitting the market over the next year, the likelihood of SpaceX missing deadlines, and an extreme valuation, the stock could easily see its price cut in half over the next year -- and it would still arguably be expensive.
U.S. Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler speaks during a Small Business Summit in the East Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 4, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesLoeffler disclosed two separate SpaceX and xAI investments of $1 million to $5 million eachHer second investment was worth $2.2 million to $25.4 million at the IPO, PitchBook saysAt least 10 Trump administration officials reported SpaceX or xAI holdings on 2025 disclosure formsWASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Small Business Administration head Kelly Loeffler multiplied the value of her investment in Elon Musk's SpaceX after she was nominated for the job, earning millions of dollars from the company's record initial public offering, a Reuters review of her financial disclosures showed.
Loeffler invested between $1 million and $5 million as of January 3, 2025, in xAI, Musk’s AI and social media firm that has since merged with SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab, according to a required financial disclosure submitted before she became SBA’s administrator.
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Later in 2025, Loeffler invested again in SpaceX and xAI between $1 million and $5 million, according to a separate financial disclosure covering her investments for all of 2025 that she signed on May 14, 2026. Reuters obtained the form from the SBA on June 12.
Loeffler's second investment has not been previously reported. Two independent government ethics attorneys agreed with Reuters' assessment of Loeffler’s disclosure.
Cabinet members use ranges to declare the value of their assets on their required financial disclosure forms, and they do not disclose the dates of their investments before taking office.
SpaceX is a military contractor for the U.S. government. Federal law, opens new tab prohibits cabinet members from participating in decisions involving a company in which they have a financial interest. Public records do not show a financial relationship between SBA and xAI or SpaceX. xAI was not included on the public list of AI tools, opens new tab used by SBA employees in 2025.
Loeffler and her team did not respond to multiple requests for comment about her SpaceX investment.
VALUE OF SPACEX INVESTMENT SOARSLoeffler’s bet on SpaceX paid off. The company priced the biggest-ever U.S. IPO on June 12, valuing the space, satellite and AI provider at $1.77 trillion.
Her first investment in xAI would have been worth between $7 million and $2.6 billion on the day of the IPO, depending on the exact amount she invested and the date she made it, said Franco Granda, analyst at data provider PitchBook. The second investment would have been worth between $2.2 million and $25.4 million that day, he said.
The earlier the investment, the more it would have been worth at the IPO, he said. xAI's valuation increased by more than 7,000% between its first investment round and January 5, 2025. SpaceX's valuation more than doubled in 2025.
At least 10 Trump administration officials listed investments in SpaceX or xAI on their 2025 financial disclosure forms. None of those officials works for the Defense Department.
Billionaire Musk, a former Trump adviser, is the founder and CEO of SpaceX.
Loeffler initially invested in xAI via a private placement, according to her disclosure form. Private placements are typically open to select individuals and institutions with significant financial resources.
Loeffler is a wealthy businesswoman. She was the founding chief executive at Bakkt, a bitcoin trading platform, and spent 16 years working at Intercontinental Exchange, the firm that owns the New York Stock Exchange, according to her LinkedIn profile. She is married to Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher. Loeffler briefly represented Georgia in the Senate.
The SBA helps entrepreneurs start and build their small businesses, according to the agency website. It connects business owners with lenders and funding to help them recover from natural disasters, among other responsibilities. The Senate confirmed Loeffler as SBA administrator on February 19, 2025.
Reporting by Courtney Rozen Editing by Chris Sanders and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Courtney Rozen reports on the world's largest technology companies from Washington, D.C., focusing on the relationship between the tech industry and the U.S. government. She reported on DOGE and the federal workforce during the first year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Prior to joining Reuters, she was a White House correspondent at Bloomberg Government. She graduated from American University with a master's degree in journalism. Contact: [email protected]
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseJuly 17, 2026, 6:05 a.m. ET
Shares in SpaceX were set to slide further below their initial public offering price after the spacecraft manufacturer aborted an attempt to launch its Starship rocket.
The Texas-headquartered company’s stock SPCX declined just over 3% in premarket trading on Friday, on the heels of a 3% slide on Thursday, bringing its price down to $126.58 – almost $9 lower than when it launched on the Nasdaq on June 12. The stock is set to lose steam for the fifth day in a row in what was to be the first flight since going public.
SpaceX's stock fell further on Friday, a day after it aborted a test flight for its Starship rocket at the last second, and amid choppy post-IPO trading.
The aerospace giant was expected to launch its Starship mega rocket within a 90-minute window at 5:45 p.m. in Texas on Thursday, but an engine ignition failure forced SpaceX to scrub the launch.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," billionaire founder Elon Musk said in a post on X. "Now offloading propellant. Next launch attempt hopefully in a few days."
SpaceX was last seen down 3.5% in premarket trading, after falling more than 3% in after hours trading.
Musk later added in a post that 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced, and that a launch is planned again for early next week.
Investors are watching the company's rocket tests more closely after it raised a record $85.7 billion in the biggest initial public offering ever in June, pricing shares at $135. SpaceX's shares have soared and dipped since its stock market debut.
SpaceX's stock since it went public in June.
This was SpaceX's first test flight of Starship V3 since its blockbuster IPO. A previous attempt in May failed after sending the Starship upper stage toward the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster failed to make a controlled landing in the Gulf of Mexico after five of its 33 Raptor engines failed to reignite.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration ordered an investigation into the mishap and on Monday cleared the company so it could continue its test trials.
After a hot start following its IPO, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.08%), better known as SpaceX, has seen its stock price come back down to Earth. The price is now approaching its IPO price of $135 per share.
Investors who couldn't get in on the IPO may be wondering whether to buy the stock if it dips below that number. Here's what history has to say.
Image source: Getty Images.
How well do IPOs hold up over the long run? Most IPO stocks see a pop on their first day of trading. Underwriters intentionally underprice offerings to ensure enough demand to fully allocate the stock offering and guarantee success for the company. Indeed, SpaceX closed its first day of trading about 19% above its IPO price, which is about average based on data dating back to 1960.
But most investors aren't interested in SpaceX's short-term outcomes. The company's value is based on its potential to disrupt multiple industries over the long run. The stock should appeal to investors who believe in CEO Elon Musk's ability to build more efficient reusable rockets, expand its satellite constellation, and reshape broadband internet access and artificial intelligence (AI). So, looking at how IPOs usually hold up after at least three years of trading can provide valuable insight.
For investors who buy just any new IPO as it comes to market, the long-term results aren't great. Even with a big first-day pop, the average IPO since 1980 (excluding the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble) produced worse returns than the overall market, according to data compiled by professor Jay Ritter. He found that all IPOs produce an average return of 44.2% from their IPO price over three years, but that trails the weighted-average market return by 1.6%.
But tech stocks specifically do significantly better. Tech IPOs produced average three-year returns of 73.3%, massively outperforming the market by 25.8%. And if you dig a little bit deeper, big tech stocks with sales exceeding $100 million (adjusted for inflation) perform even better. These companies have delivered an average three-year return of 82.5% and outperformed the market by 43.1%. Even if they're unprofitable, they still produce excess returns of 41.7% on average, according to Ritter's data.
In other words, history is on SpaceX's side as a large tech company making its public debut. Still, there are a few reasons to remain cautious about buying SpaceX, even at its IPO price.
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The SpaceX IPO is a special case SpaceX was the largest IPO in history, raising over $85 billion after underwriters exercised their option to buy additional shares. With a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, it's already a massive business. But that valuation puts its price-to-sales ratio above 90. And valuation still matters.
According to a University of Florida 2026 study of IPOs, since 1980, only 14 other IPOs have had over $100 million in sales and a price-to-sales ratio above 40. The average three-year return from their IPO price was just 3.1%, trailing the market average by 15.4%. While it's a small sample size, there's a clear correlation between IPO price-to-sales valuation and returns. The lower the valuation, the better the returns. SpaceX has one of the highest price-to-sales ratios in the market.
There's additional concern that SpaceX's stock price could be weighed down as lockup periods expire and early investors and employees can sell their shares. Interestingly, the same University of Florida study found that companies that float a smaller percentage of shares (SpaceX offered about 5% of the company's shares) end up outperforming companies that sell a larger portion of the equity at their IPO. That said, there's never been a company the size of SpaceX with so many shares locked up. That's a lot of capital for the market to absorb over the next six months or so.
The truth of the matter is that SpaceX is unlike any IPO we've ever seen. Using historical averages to project SpaceX's future stock price can only go so far. The actual results will depend on the same thing that applies to every stock in the market, whether old or new. Will the company perform better than the market expects? If it does, the stock price could outperform the market average. At its current valuation, the market is setting a very high bar for SpaceX to exceed.
SpaceX shares fell in after-hours trading after closing below their IPO price for the first time on Thursday.
The decline came after the company's 13th Starship test flight was aborted less than a second before liftoff.
The setback added to investor concerns as bearish bets against the stock continue to rise.
The stock dropped about 4.5% in after-hours trading after the launch was scrubbed, extending losses from the regular session when it closed at $131.11, below its June IPO price of $135.
The shares are now down roughly 19% since the company's market debut last month.
The failed launch comes as investors closely monitor SpaceX's progress in advancing its reusable rocket programme, which is central to its ambitions in satellite internet, lunar exploration and future artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Industry experts noted that launch delays and test failures are common during rocket development, though the timing alongside the stock's recent decline has increased investor attention.
The Starship rocket was set to lift off from SpaceX's Starbase facility in South Texas when an automatic hold was triggered during engine ignition.
The rocket's 33 Raptor engines began firing before the system shut them down moments before launch.
"We did trigger a hold on the booster that aborted our liftoff as we were starting to light those Raptor engines," SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said during the company's livestream.
Chief Executive Elon Musk later confirmed that the launch had been halted because several engines failed to start properly.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," Musk wrote on X.
"To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. The most probable launch timing is early next week."
Thursday's mission would have marked the first flight of the upgraded Starship V3 configuration since SpaceX completed the largest IPO in US history.
The test programme remains under scrutinyThe latest setback follows another imperfect Starship test in May.
Although the rocket reached space successfully, multiple engines failed to reignite during the Super Heavy booster's landing sequence, causing it to crash into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Federal Aviation Administration subsequently ordered an investigation before clearing the vehicle for another launch earlier this week.
"The final mishap report cites the two most probable root causes for the loss of the Super Heavy booster as heat effects on propulsion system components during the ascent and erroneous engine alarm system settings," the FAA said.
SpaceX implemented four corrective measures, including software and hardware updates, before Thursday's planned launch.
The mission also aimed to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink satellites designed to test new communications capabilities before intentionally burning up during atmospheric re-entry.
The weakness in SpaceX shares has coincided with a sharp increase in bearish positioning.
According to Ortex Technologies, investors betting against the stock are sitting on approximately $8.7 billion in unrealised profits as the shares have fallen from a post-IPO high of $225.64, Reuters reported.
"SpaceX has been a rollercoaster for the short sellers, and it has ended up firmly in their favor," Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg said.
"Rather than take profits, the bears kept adding the whole way down."
Nearly 49% of the company's tradable shares are now on loan to short sellers, according to Ortex, creating the potential for heightened volatility.
The research firm estimates that every $1 move in SpaceX shares represents more than $300 million in gains or losses for bearish investors.
Much of the recent pressure reflects broader concerns about expensive technology valuations and debt-funded artificial intelligence investments.
Analysts remain divided on valuationThe stock's decline has prompted debate over whether the recent correction presents a buying opportunity.
Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson argued that valuations remain stretched despite the sell-off.
"Don't even think about bottom-fishing this one, as it still trades at 92 times trailing revenues," Tilson wrote.
"That means it's still nearly 10 times overvalued, given that I think a generous multiple for the stock would be 10 times revenues."
Piper Sandler initiated coverage of SpaceX on Thursday with a Neutral rating and a $156 price target.
The brokerage said it remains positive on the company's long-term prospects but expects near-term challenges, including staged lock-up expirations, uncertainty surrounding a potential Tesla acquisition, and the substantial capital expenditure required to develop orbital AI data centres.
The firm also noted that annual investment requirements could run into tens of billions of dollars before investors gain confidence in the company's long-term strategy.
Despite the recent weakness, Wall Street remains broadly optimistic.
According to LSEG data, 27 of the 32 analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying the stock, while four have neutral ratings and only one maintains a sell recommendation, suggesting that most analysts continue to view the recent decline as a short-term setback rather than a change in the company's longer-term growth outlook.
SpaceX stock price has fallen below its initial public offering (IPO) price price just one month after the company’s blockbuster market debut. Investors who bought SpaceX stock at the IPO price of $135 on June 12 would now be sitting on a loss.
Namely, a $10,000 investment made at the initial SpaceX IPO price of $135 per share on June 12, 2026, would now be worth approximately $9,706, with the space exploration leader trading just barely above $131 as of press time, July 17.
SpaceX 24-hour stock price chart. Source: Finbold The losses come after a rather turbulent first month of trading following the largest IPO in history. Indeed, Elon Musk’s company debuted with an initial valuation of around $1.77 trillion and closed the first trading session with a market capitalization above $2 trillion.
In just four days, SPCX shares hit an intraday high of roughly $211 before broader market weakness kicked in and profit-taking and renewed concerns over the company’s valuation sent the stock lower.
SpaceX shares fell below their $135 IPO price for the first time on July 15, reaching a session low of $132.28 before recovering to close at $135.27. By press time, the price had gone even lower, to the aforementioned $131.
The decline has reduced SpaceX’s market capitalization to approximately $1.72 trillion, a significant retreat from the roughly $2.9 trillion valuation recorded just four days after its debut.
Why did SpaceX stock crash? First and foremost, the selloff reflects growing investor concerns regarding SpaceX’s valuation and financial outlook as the company approaches its first earnings report in August.
Currently, analysts expect SpaceX to generate between $34 billion and $43 billion in revenue this year, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. However, many investors are on edge as SpaceX recorded a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion in 2025.
Shareholders are also watching for a potential increase in selling pressure later in 2026. For instance, insider share unlocks following the upcoming quarterly could expand the public float, allowing some employees to sell portions of their holdings.
Looking ahead, SpaceX’s growth is driven by several prospects. The most important of those are its Falcon launch business, expanding Starlink satellite internet network, Starship development, and potential artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure projects.
However, the company faces significant execution risks as it invests heavily in these technologies. With its first earnings report as a public company approaching, investors will be watching whether management can turn technological leadership into financial performance strong enough to justify the multi-trillion-dollar valuation and deliver gains to early and future backers.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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SpaceX's first Starship launch since its June IPO was aborted due to engine issues at its South Texas Starbase facility. Steve Nesius/Reuters SpaceX called off its first Starship launch since its massive IPO in June.
On Thursday, SpaceX backed away from a launch attempt of its upgraded Starship rocket after an engine issue triggered an automatic abort before liftoff at the company's Starbase facility in South Texas.
CEO Elon Musk said in a post on X that "Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort." He added that the company would try again, "hopefully in a few days."
Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort.
Now offloading propellant.
Next launch attempt hopefully in a few days.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 16, 2026 The launch was meant to mark Starship's return to flight weeks after the debut of the V3 vehicle in May.
Thursday's test was also the first Starship launch attempt since SpaceX's June 12 public debut, which raised more than $85 billion in what the company described as the largest IPO in history. After briefly reaching a market valuation comparable to Amazon and Microsoft, SpaceX shares have since retreated.
The stock closed Thursday below its $135 IPO price. Shares fell more than 4% in after-hours trading following the aborted launch before recovering some of those losses.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comments.
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.07%) made headlines when it raised $75 billion from investors in an initial public offering (nearly $86 billion if you include the investment bankers' overallotment). The stock rocketed higher after the IPO, but it has now fallen back down to the $135 IPO price. There are alternatives to consider, such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 17.04%) and Rocket Lab (RKLB 11.62%). Here's why you might want to buy one of these stocks over SpaceX.
What does SpaceX do? The simple answer is SpaceX does a lot. For example, it builds and launches rockets. In fact, it appears well ahead of the competition in terms of technology, with rockets that return and land after use. Reusing launch rockets materially reduces launch costs. SpaceX also operates Starlink, a satellite-based telecommunication network. And it is building an artificial intelligence business.
Image source: Getty Images.
This is where things get interesting. SpaceX is a money-losing start-up, but its Starlink business is profitable. As the company clearly spelled out in its IPO prospectus, space launches and AI are burning through cash. You can avoid the money-losing businesses and just focus on the one segment of SpaceX that is profitable, the satellite-based broadband network, if you buy AST SpaceMobile.
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AST SpaceMobile: Not up to speed, but getting close AST SpaceMobile isn't profitable yet, either. However, it operates a satellite-based broadband network. And it is working to expand that network to cover the entire planet. It is getting close to a commercial launch of its network, but there's a vital difference between Starlink and AST SpaceMobile: Starlink's service is bespoke, while AST SpaceMobile is partnered with large cellphone service providers.
That means it has a built-in customer base and is likely to hit the ground running when its service starts operating. It still has material spending needs as it works to broaden its geographic coverage, but it also has major telecom partners as supporters. If you are worried that Elon Musk is pulling SpaceX in too many directions, AST SpaceMobile would be a way to focus on the one part of that company that actually makes money today. That said, AST SpaceMobile likely won't be profitable for a while longer, given the huge cost of building and launching satellites.
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Rocket Lab: Everything but the AI One sizable drawback with AST SpaceMobile is that it doesn't launch its own satellites. It has to contract that out to other companies, which means, in some ways, it is at the mercy of its space-focused competitors. Rocket Lab currently builds and launches rockets and makes other space technology. However, it has agreed to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM 4.23%), which operates a space-based broadband network, in an $8 billion deal.
That will, effectively, make Rocket Lab a fully integrated space company, just like SpaceX. But it will leave out the AI part of the business, which is currently eating up huge amounts of SpaceX cash. It isn't that Rocket Lab doesn't use AI; it does. But it uses AI internally to support its own business.
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Rocket Lab isn't profitable either, so it, too, is still a money-losing start-up. As with SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile, only the most aggressive investors should consider it. However, it lets you focus on space and avoid getting caught up in the AI hype running through the stock market today.
What are you looking to own? When you step back and look at SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile, and Rocket Lab, there are a few big takeaways. First, the only way to get direct access to Elon Musk is to buy SpaceX. If that's what has you interested in space, then stick with the "original."
Second, you can focus on the one part of SpaceX that's profitable if you buy AST SpaceMobile. AST SpaceMobile isn't profitable, as it is still building out its satellite business, but it has major partners to help it along.
Third, if you want everything but SpaceX's AI business, your best option is Rocket Lab. The caveat here is that it still hasn't completed the purchase of Iridium. If you choose to go this route, you might want to hold off until the deal is consummated.
One final consideration here: All three companies are still money-losing start-ups. Only the most aggressive growth investors should probably consider buying any of them. The space sector is still very early in its development, and it is far from clear which companies will be the long-term winners.
Item 1 of 5 The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy v3 Booster stand at pad 2 at sunrise before its 13th test flight from the SpaceX launch complex in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 16, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
[1/5]The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy v3 Booster stand at pad 2 at sunrise before its 13th test flight from the SpaceX launch complex in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 16, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius ... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its 13th flight test from Texas on Thursday, postponing the mission by at least 24 hours with the company studying what likely caused the automated scrub.
"We did trigger a hold on the booster that aborted our liftoff as we were starting to light those Raptor engines," said SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot, speaking on the company's live stream. "We'll take some time, dig into what triggered that abort once the booster was igniting to launch, and then we'll figure out what our path forward is going to be."
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The launch abort came less than a second before Starship's planned 6:45 p.m. ET liftoff from Starbase, SpaceX's company town in south Texas. The rocket's engines ignited but cut off shortly after.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
All eyes have been on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.07%) since its explosive initial public offering. The technology and industrial giant may have stirred up so much excitement due to its exciting mix of businesses, the leadership of the ambitious Elon Musk, and the sheer size of the operation. SpaceX raised more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option to complete the biggest IPO ever.
And the company launched with a market value of more than $2 trillion -- the other trillion-dollar stocks, such as Nvidia and Apple, took years to reach such a valuation.
SpaceX climbed nearly 20% in its first day of trading and continued to advance over the next few days -- but since that point, the stock has stumbled. And just this week, it fell below its IPO price of $135. What happens next? History offers an answer that's crystal clear.
Image source: Getty Images.
Cutting costs of rocket launches First, though, let's explore the SpaceX story so far. The company was founded by Elon Musk, also known as the chief executive officer of Tesla, back in 2002, and since then has aimed to drastically cut the costs of rocket launches. SpaceX has been successful so far -- using its reusable rocket technologies, it already reduced costs by 85% in 2010, according to NASA. This year, the company aims to launch its fully reusable rocket Starship with payloads, further advancing toward this goal.
In addition to the rocket launch business, SpaceX also operates a connectivity arm called Starlink and an artificial intelligence (AI) unit. Starlink is the main revenue driver so far, bringing in revenue of $11.4 billion last year on total revenue of $18 billion as it grew its subscriber base. The AI unit has major goals, such as developing data centers in space, but so far, it's been a drag on earnings -- this is because it requires enormous investment. Last year, capital spending for the AI business reached $12 billion, driving SpaceX to a net loss.
Musk is committed to innovation, and that's something many investors like, and SpaceX aims to be a game changer in its three businesses. That's positive and is attracting growth investors. But it's important to keep in mind that certain goals require the development of complex technology -- and if the technology fails, SpaceX won't reach those goals. Meanwhile, the need to heavily invest could stand in the way of profitability for some time. So investing in SpaceX today involves a certain degree of risk.
Some of these elements could have weighed on investors' minds in recent days -- and as a result, weighed on SpaceX's stock performance too.
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A look at past IPOs Now, let's consider what history has to say about what happens next. A look at 10 of the biggest IPOs, including names such as Rivian Automotive and Coupang, shows that eight posted declines in the three months following their launches. And five of them delivered declines in the double-digits. The average drop over the first three months was 13%.
If SpaceX follows that pattern and posts the average decline, the stock may finish its first three months of trading at around $139, a few dollars above the IPO price.
Of course, it's impossible to predict the exact path of a stock price. And it's important to note that the company's upcoming earnings report could come into play and offer the stock direction. But if history is right, SpaceX could stagnate around current price levels -- since it's already declined more than 13% since the IPO -- over the coming two months.
What does this mean for you as an investor? Should you buy SpaceX now that it's fallen to its IPO level? I don't think this will be the first and only opportunity to get in on SpaceX stock on the dip, and generally, it's a better idea to take a look at another earnings report or even two to monitor the company's progress before buying. Though very aggressive investors may consider adding a few shares of SpaceX to their portfolios now, most investors should hold on for a future buying opportunity.
Taha Ahmed talks about Wall Street's largest IPO, SpaceX (SPCX), after shares of the Elon Musk-led firm came back to Earth, now trading below the stock's initial IPO price of $135. He points to the company's future aspirations as the crux of bullish momentum, meaning any hit to its outlook will create ripple effects in the stock.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) trades at $135.27, and the setup ahead of Starship Flight Test 13 is worth examining closely. The stock has round-tripped back to its $135 IPO price after peaking above $225, and the pullback collides with a developmental launch that prediction markets are already treating as a fireball.
SPCX gives public-market investors direct exposure to Elon Musk’s launch, Starlink, and defense franchise. The business dominates U.S. orbital launch cadence, anchors the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch Phase 3 awards, and operates a satellite broadband network that has become core infrastructure. The stock’s pullback reflects a 29.73% one-month drawdown tied to a global tech rout and rising anxiety about the next Starship test, rather than a fundamental miss.
Why the Discount Is the Opportunity At current levels, buyers pick up SpaceX at its offering price while the company’s addressable market widens. Analyst consensus sits at $242.22, implying 79.06% upside, with 7 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The spread reflects growing conviction on Starlink monetization and defense contracts.
The bull case runs through iterative design. As Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski put it, “SpaceX is a multi-platform infrastructure company involved in launch, communications, defense, and AI connectivity, with Starlink poised to exceed expectations.” Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas notes SpaceX is now held by approximately 200 ETFs, a structural bid that did not exist at IPO. Every successful Starship iteration pulls forward the reusability curve that Falcon 9 took roughly seven years to mature.
Why the Fireball Scares the Market Bears see a company priced for perfection heading into a launch that Polymarket handicaps at an 89% probability of explosion. The chopstick booster catch sits at just 0.65%, and Flight Test 12 resolved with a booster explosion. The Atlantic argued SpaceX’s IPO was driven by capital hunger for the AI race, not fundamentals, tagging the stock with a bearish sentiment score of -0.382899. CNBC flagged that the average post-IPO buyer is nearly underwater, and the one-week decline of 8.79% shows the selling continues.
Why Patience Has a Case The hold argument is timing. Polymarket assigns a 55.5% probability of SPCX closing above $130 by month-end and only a 36% probability above $140. If the booster disintegrates on camera, retail flows may push shares lower before recovering. Waiting for the post-launch result avoids buying into a headline-driven downdraft.
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What the Numbers Say SPCX trades at $135.27 against an $242.22 consensus target across 11 covering analysts, an implied 79.06% upside. The dislocation shows in recent performance: SPCX is down 29.73% over the past month while the S&P 500 is essentially flat, and down 8.79% in the past week against a 1.26% gain for the index.
Sentiment is bifurcated. Of 14 recent news items, 8 skewed bullish and only 1 bearish, yet the composite sentiment index reads 42.07, neutral. Prediction market crowds have run a 66.7% correct rate on prior SPCX resolutions, with a tendency to underestimate upside.
The Verdict: Front-Run the Panic At $135, SpaceX is a Buy. The path to appreciation runs through interpretation. A planned termination, hypersonic breakup, or intentional ocean crash counts as an explosion on Polymarket, but on SpaceX’s engineering scorecard it is a data-gathering step toward rapid reusability. When the smoke clears and the next iteration flies weeks later, the 29% drawdown starts to look like a mispriced entry.
The near-term catalyst is the launch itself, with 95% probability of flying by July 31. Medium term, Starlink monetization and awarded launch tranches under the NSSL and Space Development Agency pipelines carry the fundamental story. What invalidates the thesis: a total-loss event that grounds the fleet for quarters, or a Starlink competitor closing the gap on cost per bit.
Purchasing SpaceX at its IPO price the week retail expects a fireball is the sort of positioning that analyst desks typically endorse only after the outcome is known.
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Early this year, Elon Musk pulled off the biggest corporate merger ever, folding his artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, xAI, into Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.76%) in a deal that valued the combined company at roughly $1.25 trillion. Musk was blunt about the reason: He wants to build data centers in space. It sounds like science fiction, but the plan is surprisingly specific.
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SpaceX is calling its data center plan Starmind The SpaceX project has a name, Starmind, and it involves a satellite called AI1 that functions as an orbiting server rack, delivering around 150 kilowatts of peak computing power. The satellite spans about 70 meters tip to tip (wider than a Boeing 747), and it is equipped with chips that run xAI's Grok models.
SpaceX's roadmap for this project calls for two prototype AI1 satellites to launch in early 2027, with production ramping toward roughly 1 gigawatt of orbital compute per year by late 2027, and commercial operation potentially beginning in 2028. SpaceX has asked regulators for permission to eventually field a constellation of up to 1 million such satellites, ferried up by its reusable Starship rocket, with a single mission deploying 30 to 50 satellites at a time.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why space could beat the ground The logic is that space solves the two problems choking terrestrial AI data centers: power and heat. In orbit, solar panels catch sunlight nearly around the clock, without cloudy days or grid limits, and the cold vacuum of space lets satellites radiate heat away without the enormous amounts of water and electricity that ground-based cooling demands.
No land to buy, no local utility to fight, and no neighbors to placate. Fusing xAI's models with SpaceX's launch, satellite, and Starlink networking expertise under one roof is Musk's bet that vertical integration can make orbital compute real before anyone else.
Here's the honest counterweight: This is still largely a dream. Dissipating that much heat in a vacuum is genuinely hard, radiation degrades electronics, and you can't send a technician to fix a broken server 300 miles up. The costs are staggering, and it's worth noting that xAI was burning billions of dollars and needed SpaceX's deep pockets, which was as much a driver of this merger as any orbital vision. Timelines this ambitious tend to slip.
The takeaway for investors For anyone eyeing SpaceX, orbital data centers are best understood as a long-shot option stacked atop the real business, launch and Starlink, rather than a proven moneymaker. If Starmind works, it could open a vast new market and justify the towering valuation. If it doesn't, SpaceX still has its core franchise. Treat the space-compute dream as an upside to hope for, not a reason to buy on its own.
The next generation of AI leaders could soon become public companies, and Wall Street may not be ready. Brian Sozzi sits down with Robinhood Chief Investment Officer Stephanie Guild and Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk to discuss what potential IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for investors, why AI infrastructure spending continues to reshape markets, and whether public markets have enough liquidity to absorb the next wave of technology giants.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.82%) fell to a low of just below $138 per share in the July 13 trading session. This means that just over a month after the stock's initial public offering (IPO), it has almost fallen to its IPO price of $135 per share as of the time of this writing.
Nonetheless, despite the fact that average investors can now buy the communication stock near the IPO price, investors still have good reason to stay away, and here's why.
Image source: The White House.
The state of SpaceX stock Admittedly, SpaceX stock is potentially an attractive holding. Its founder, Elon Musk, is one of the great innovators of our time, and his automobile and AI company, Tesla, made some smaller investors wealthy.
Today, SpaceX dominates the private market for rocket launches, and its Starlink segment is the largest provider of satellite internet services. Also, if initiatives such as data centers in space succeed, SpaceX is likely to make investors wealthier.
The problem for investors is that the stock already prices in years of growth. Part of that is its $1.8 trillion market capitalization. That is probably too large a size to repeat the 24,600% lifetime gains in Tesla, whose current market cap of $1.5 trillion is below that of SpaceX.
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Moreover, much of the reason SpaceX has reached this market value is that it trades at a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 96 as of this writing. Bullish investors are likely eyeing forecasts for 108% revenue growth in 2026 and 86% the next year.
However, if its stock price stays the same, that would mean a 46 forward P/S ratio and a forward one-year sales multiple of 25. High-growth stocks tend to trade at sales multiples in the teens and twenties, implying the price is at least two years ahead of itself.
Furthermore, analysts expect Micron Technology to grow revenue at 247% this year and 81% in 2027. Yet, it sells at a trailing P/S ratio of 12. Micron is a fundamentally different business, so it is far from a perfect comparison. Still, it leaves investors wondering why they should pay SpaceX's massive growth premium when other stocks offer faster growth at a fraction of its valuation.
Avoid SpaceX Considering its growth and valuation, SpaceX still appears too richly valued, even as it nears the IPO price.
Musk has built a track record of success, making SpaceX stock a desirable holding, objectively speaking. But the company's market cap shows how average investors did not get to capitalize on SpaceX's growth in the same way they benefited from Tesla. Companies like Micron show that investors can buy comparable revenue growth at a fraction of SpaceX's massive premium.
Ultimately, time will tell how low SpaceX stock can go. Still, until investors can buy SpaceX at a lower cost, they should probably avoid the stock.
Elon Musk's xAI, now known as SpaceXAI following a merger with SpaceX, has made the Memphis, Tennessee area the center of its AI ambitions. XAI is building three data centers there, as well as a power plant in Southaven, Mississippi.
A billboard of SpaceX is pictured on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesNEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - Short sellers targeting SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab shares are sitting on an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profit since the rockets-to-AI firm's initial public offering last month, as its stock slipped below the IPO price, according to data and analytics firm Ortex Technologies.
Short sellers, who borrow shares to sell them and later buy them back at a lower price for a profit, have pressed their bearish bets on SpaceX as the company's shares slipped toward its IPO price of $135 from a post-IPO high of $225.64.
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SpaceX shares have been volatile, experiencing brief bouts of strength before slipping back. On Wednesday, the stock dropped below its initial public offering price for the first time before recovering to close just above that level.
"SpaceX has been a rollercoaster for the short sellers, and it has ended up firmly in their favor," Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg said. "Rather than take profits, the bears kept adding the whole way down."
Almost half of SpaceX's tradable shares, about 49% of the free float, are now out on loan, according to Ortex.
"We believe most of that is short selling," Hillerberg said.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SpaceX's lofty valuation makes it a target for short sellers skeptical of its rich price tag, but strong retail and institutional interest as well as CEO Elon Musk's history of public battles against short sellers make bearish bets against the company a risky proposition.
The weakness in SpaceX shares reflects in part investor concern over debt-funded AI spending.
The stock's sizable short position could inject further volatility into the shares, with every dollar SpaceX shares move worth more than $300 million to the short side, Ortex estimates. That means the stock could swing hard in either direction.
SpaceX shares were up about 1% to $136.28 on Thursday.
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Mark Porter
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Short sellers are rapidly increasing their bets against SpaceX, driving bearish positioning to nearly one-third of the company's public float as the struggling stock hovers around its IPO price.
About 185 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 29% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in bearish wagers, according to S3 Partners. The position has ballooned from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, just three weeks ago.
"We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.
The surge in short interest comes as SpaceX shares have struggled after an initially strong debut. The stock has fallen about 20% in July and briefly slipped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time. The stock last traded around $136 apiece.
SpaceX one month
The bearish positioning comes ahead of a closely watched lockup schedule that could substantially increase the number of shares available for trading over the coming months. SpaceX's initial public float represented only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion shares outstanding, leaving the vast majority of stock still subject to lockup restrictions, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.
KeyBanc estimated the first major unlock could come around the company's second-quarter earnings report, when about 11% of outstanding shares may become eligible for sale.
Additional tranches of roughly 4% each are scheduled to be released beginning around day 70 after the IPO, followed by further unlocks tied to performance milestones and third-quarter earnings, the firm said.
The largest block remains Elon Musk's stake, representing about 42% of shares outstanding, which is locked up until June 2027.
The company's 13th Starship test flight is slated for Thursday, an catalyst that could influence sentiment toward the shares.
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Sometimes, good things come to those who wait. For those who were able to hold off from buying a few shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) on day one, there’s now a chance to buy at around the $135 per-share IPO price. If the sell-off continues, perhaps investors will be able to snag shares at closer to $100 per share. Either way, SpaceX has fallen out of favor in a big way, and not even table-pounding analysts or jaw-dropping price target projections have been enough to send the shares sustainably higher.
Indeed, the shares did land on the public markets at a very expensive valuation. And, as I predicted earlier, encouraging investors to avoid buying shares on day one (they ended up fluctuating around $160 per share) while also citing AI-related CapEx fears spreading to the name eventually, even as the Nasdaq 100 fast-tracked the name for entry.
Could it be that traders have moved onto the newer IPO with SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY), even though SpaceX touched down on the public market just over a month ago?
Maybe, maybe not. But either way, I think SpaceX stands out as the far more explosive growth play than the likes of SK Hynix, which seems to have landed in U.S. markets at a time when the semiconductors and DRAM trade are about to suffer a correction, or worse, a vicious bursting of the bubble, as capital rotates from the sellers of “picks and shovels” to the users that will unearth all that gold (think the hyperscalers that were previously punished for spending so much on AI data center buildouts).
SK Hynix is hitting the ground running, but semis are in a tough place right now In any case, SK Hynix is backed up, and it seems like even an aggressive expansion won’t result in enough memory chips to go around come 2028. While the supercycle has been fierce, I don’t see it as continuing forever, and that’s a major reason why the semis have been under pressure in recent weeks.
With Fed chair Kevin Warsh likelier than not to increase interest rates, at least in my view, I think the risk of a CapEx pullback could really hit semi stocks hard, well before any confirmation of slowing AI demand is in the books. Sure, the picks and shovels have sold incredibly well. But if there’s not as much gold out there, you simply shouldn’t expect people to keep buying.
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While I do think a ton of gold will be unearthed as firms look to unlock AI-driven value, while some firms set monetary milestones to hit (most notably, the big banks), the big question is how many shovels and picks one person needs to dig up the gold. In any case, SK Hynix could be looking at $330.00 per share if Barclays’ forecast comes to fruition.
There’s a $900 price target on SpaceX floating out there! Between tight supply over the foreseeable future and surprise potential, there certainly exists a path that could see shares gain close to 88% from here. At the same time, though, I think the bull-case target of $900 per share on SpaceX is the most jaw-dropping.
That’s a multi-bagger gain for investors who can pick up a few shares at around the IPO price. Of course, a lot of things need to go right and on time for the firm, as SpaceX looks to sell orbital AI compute while pushing a rush to the relatively untapped off-Earth economy.
In my humble opinion, those orbital data centers don’t just need to work, but they’ll need to work well. That means solar power will be enough while the data centers stay cool in space.
And, of course, maybe SpaceX will need to sell out of the compute as it seeks to become the only space hyperscaler. In addition, we’ll need to see successful Starship launches and rapid advancement over at xAI as Grok looks to push closer to the frontier. Of course, there isn’t much room for error, as SpaceX looks to crash or skyrocket based on every new development. Just like flying into space, SpaceX shares aren’t going to be for everyone.
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According to JPMorgan, the real test of Starship Flight 13 won’t end when the rocket leaves the launch pad—or even when it returns to Earth. The bigger question is whether SpaceX is getting closer to flying the same rocket again, and again, and again.
That’s the milestone that could ultimately determine whether Starship transforms from an engineering marvel into the economic engine behind SpaceX’s long-term growth.
Launching Isn’t The Hard PartFlight 13 is expected to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, test improvements to the Super Heavy booster and attempt an in-flight relight of one of Starship’s upper-stage engines. The mission also marks the second flight of the company’s latest V3 configuration, which is expected to power future Starlink deployments, lunar missions and eventually next-generation AI satellite infrastructure.
Those are important milestones. But JPMorgan argues they’re not the ones investors should focus on.
Instead, Seifman says one of the biggest questions remains how quickly SpaceX can inspect, refurbish and fly Starship’s second stage again after surviving the extreme heat and stress of re-entry. That makes the performance of the vehicle’s thermal protection system—and the time required to prepare it for another mission—arguably more important than whether Thursday’s launch goes according to plan.
The Economics Of ReusabilitySpaceX has never hidden its ambition.
The company wants to launch Starship dozens of times next year, hundreds of times in 2028 and eventually thousands of times annually. That vision depends less on building rockets than on rapidly reusing them.
The distinction matters for investors.
A rocket that flies once remains an expensive engineering project. A rocket that can be turned around quickly begins to resemble an airline fleet—capable of lowering launch costs, increasing capacity and dramatically improving the economics of satellite deployment.
That’s why JPMorgan says future milestones such as catching Starship’s upper stage with the Mechazilla launch tower will be impressive, but not necessarily the most important. The bigger question is how soon that same vehicle can fly again.
The Next Milestone To WatchFlight 13 will provide plenty of data on Starship’s technical progress, from engine performance to heat-shield durability.
But the next catalyst for investors may arrive well after the launch webcast ends.
If SpaceX can prove that Starship’s upper stage can be recovered, refurbished and returned to service on increasingly shorter timelines, it would strengthen the business case behind one of the company’s biggest long-term ambitions: making access to space as routine as commercial aviation.
That’s the launch after the launch that Wall Street may ultimately care about most.
Image via Shutterstock
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