Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.19%) continues to enthrall investors, but so far, it hasn't been the hit that many may have been expecting. As of this writing, SpaceX (as the company is also known) is 40% off its peak and well below both its $135 initial public offering (IPO) price and its $150 opening price on its first day of trading.
But what investors really want to know is what comes next: Is it a bargain at the current price, and could this be the right time to buy? What has happened to other mega-IPOs may shed some light on that question.
Not the stocks you're thinking of When you hear "mega-IPO," you might be thinking of today's biggest companies, like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. But these companies went public decades ago, at much smaller sizes, before they were household names, and before the mega-IPO was a thing.
In today's world, it's hard to keep a great IPO a secret, and many companies have been waiting to go public until after they've gained status and popularity. Not only was SpaceX the biggest IPO ever, it was followed up only weeks later by the secondary listing of SK Hynix on the Nasdaq, which was the second-biggest initial offering ever and the biggest international IPO ever.
But some of the largest IPOs in history are companies you know about, and some of them have become some of the most valuable companies in the world. Consider Visa, Meta Platforms (which went public as Facebook), General Motors, and Rivian.
CompanyIPO ValueCurrent ValueShare Price Change After 1 MonthShare Price Change After 1 YearVisa$18 billion$676 billion22%(7)%Meta Platforms (Facebook)$16 billion$1.6 trillion(18)%(31)%General Motors$23 billion$69 billion0%(36)%Rivian$12 billion$22 billion15%(70)% Data source: YCharts, CNBC, Forbes.
As you can see, results for such debuts have been mixed. This is only a tiny sampling, and some of the other largest historical IPOs are companies that retail investors may not have heard of, like ENEL and Telstra (a point that doesn't bode well for large IPOs).
Can SpaceX bounce back? Big, splashy IPOs don't necessarily lead to big gains, at least not immediately. Other than SpaceX, the only large IPOs that have become megacap companies are Meta and Visa, which are the seventh- and 16th-most-valuable companies by market cap in the U.S., respectively.
Over time, most large IPO stocks have come back from their early declines, but few of them have been the kinds of stocks that have minted millionaires. SpaceX may rebound over time, but you're likely to find better buys among lower-key IPOs that have great fundamentals.
Jennifer Saibil has positions in Apple and Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Telstra Group, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Marley Kayden discusses SpaceX's (SPCX) upcoming earnings announcement, the U.S. weighing new AI sanctions on China, and the Trump administration's evolving tariff strategy. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseEarnings OutlookEarnings OutlookPlus, investors just found out when insiders can start dumping their sharesJuly 21, 2026, 12:44 p.m. ET
SpaceX’s stock is climbing on Tuesday and is set to snap a bruising seven-session losing streak.
The stock shed 21% during that period, creating a juicy buying opportunity for investors, according to Macquarie analysts led by Paul Golding. They wrote in a Monday note to clients that SpaceX’s SPCX “story” is virtually unchanged even as its stock has taken a beating.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +4.66%) has transformed the aerospace industry by pioneering reusable rocket technology and its Starlink network of broadband internet satellites. Building on its innovations in launch services and satellite connectivity, SpaceX is now aggressively expanding into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
The company is building large-scale compute capacity to support model training and inference, aiming to become a competitive provider of sovereign, scalable AI platforms serving both commercial enterprises and the U.S. government.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
AI infrastructure is an expensive pursuit SpaceX's S-1 filing underscored the demanding economics of its AI vision. Data center build-outs require enormous up-front investments in specialized hardware, power infrastructure, and supporting networks.
The AI cloud computing landscape is fiercely competitive, and dominated by established hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services, Alphabet's Google Cloud Platform, and Microsoft Azure. Moreover, emerging neocloud providers like CoreWeave and Nebius Group add further pressure through specialized offerings and aggressive pricing. For SpaceX, meanwhile, AI remains an unproven business. In 2025, its AI segment posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion on revenue of just $3.2 billion.
Murmurings of a deal with the Pentagon According to articles published by The Wall Street Journal and Reuters, SpaceX is in discussions with the Department of Defense about a potential multibillion-dollar capacity agreement. Such a partnership would align logically with the company's existing government relationships, which include deals with NASA and the U.S. Space Force.
Both the Biden and Trump administrations have emphasized advancing American technological leadership. That premise supports the plausibility of closer collaboration between the government and SpaceX for managing AI workloads. The company's proven ability to deliver on high-stakes national security projects makes it a reasonable choice for handling classified AI needs alongside legacy providers.
SpaceX has shown some AI-driven growth, but uncertainty remains Over the last month, SpaceX has signed capacity agreements worth up to $82 billion with Anthropic, Google Cloud, and Reflection AI. Against this backdrop, adding the Pentagon as an AI customer could be a natural extension of its existing services.
However, the Defense Department maintains long-standing partnerships with the cloud hyperscalers, and any new deal it might ink with SpaceX remains speculative.
Even so, SpaceX has demonstrated that it can compete credibly in the AI infrastructure arena. Should a Defense Department deal come to fruition, it would significantly strengthen the company's credentials and accelerate its efforts to become a leading sovereign AI platform.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
With Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company on August 4, over 1.37 billion shares of SpaceX stock are scheduled to unlock on August 6, 2026
Two days after the company’s earnings report, 20% of locked-up SpaceX stock, representing about 911.5 million shares, will enter the tradable float, according to the S-1 filing. An additional 10% tranche, which is around 455.8 million SpaceX shares, may also unlock on the same date only if the stock trades at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on and including the earnings release date,
As SPCX traded at about $128.97 on July 21, the upcoming August 6 unlock wave is valued at more than $175 billion at press time. A further 7%, amounting to 319 million SpaceX shares, valued at approximately $40.8 billion, is scheduled to unlock around August 21.
Later on September 10, the company will release 7%, or about 319 million shares, also valued at $40.8 billion at the time of reporting. Currently, 555 million shares, or about 5% of the 13 billion SpaceX shares, are available in the public float.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion SpaceX shares remain subject to a separate extended lock-up until June 2027, with no early release provisions.
What’s the impact of upcoming unlocks on SpaceX stock price? The upcoming SpaceX stock unlocks could increase selling pressure amid more than a 36% selloff since the all-time high (ATH).
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold However, SpaceX has received a bullish long-term projection from Wall Street analysts, as Finbold reported. Nonetheless, with the company’s quarterly earnings forecasts still unknown, SpaceX stock could face heightened volatility in the near term fueled by the upcoming share unlocks.
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SpaceX's stock gained 7% on Tuesday, attempting to snap a seven-day losing streak after setting its maiden earnings report, which coincides with a major share lock-up expiration.
Elon Musk's aerospace and defense contractor on Monday announced Aug. 4 as its debut earnings report after its record initial public offering. The date also triggers the company's unique lock-up period, which allows insiders to begin selling shares earlier than the typical 180-day period.
SpaceX took a staggered approach, allowing insiders to sell portions of their stock at earlier intervals to prevent massive selling and price volatility. The first earnings report paves the way for investors to sell 20% of their eligible locked-up stock, a total of up to 911.5 million shares, on the second full trading day immediately following the first earnings release date, Aug. 6.
An additional 10% could be freed up if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price for five of the ten trading days heading into the report.
As of Monday's close, SpaceX shares had shed nearly half their value from the company's intraday high of $225.64 per share on June 16, or 43% from its all-time high closing price of $211.39 on that same day.
Musk's net worth, which had soared above $1 trillion as of June 12, stood around $786 billion on Monday, according to Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires Index.
SpaceX stock chart.
In recent weeks, the stock has also become a prime target for short sellers, with bearish positioning last reaching about a third of the company's public float.
Given the lock-up, only a small portion of shares are available for trading, and short sellers have been ramping up their bets as the stock plummets. Musk blasted the group in a post to social media platform X on Monday.
"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," he wrote.
SpaceX is planning to launch a Falcon 9 rocket carrying 24 Starlink satellites into low orbit on Tuesday after scrubbing the mission before takeoff on Monday.
This was the second cancelled launch from SpaceX in a week. The company plans to launch its massive Starship rocket on Thursday after halting the mission last week due to an engine ignition failure.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," Musk said in a post on the SpaceX-owned social network X. The company said it was modifying the rocket's propulsion system to address the engine issues.
Investors are watching Starship test flights closely after SpaceX raised a record $85.7 billion in the biggest initial public offering ever in June, pricing shares at $135.
The giant rocket — which is the largest ever built or flown — is key to SpaceX ambitions to scale its Starlink satellite internet service, and key to fulfilling various obligations to the Artemis program of U.S. space agency NASA, which aims to bring astronauts back to the lunar surface in 2028.
Read more CNBC tech newsElon Musk's Memphis AI empire is the epicenter of the data center backlashAMD launches Helios, its first rack AI system to rival Nvidia, adding Microsoft as newest buyerTSMC is accelerating Arizona factory build-out to capitalize on AI 'megatrend,' CFO saysLeather jacket worn by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang goes for just under $1 million at Sotheby's auctionMusk has also called Starship the "holy grail" of space travel, and wants to see it someday used for space tourism and manned missions to Mars.
Investors are also watching SpaceX's growing array of cloud computing contracts. The company acquired Musk's AI venture, xAI, now called SpaceXAI, in February, becoming the owner and operator of sprawling data centers and a power plant in Greater Memphis.
Google, Anthropic and Reflection have signed up to rent excess compute capacity from SpaceXAI, as xAI company is now known, at those facilities. The company is also reportedly in talks to provide the Pentagon with compute capacity.
Musk's first publicly traded company, Tesla, is expected to report earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Institutional investors have submitted some questions ahead of time to Tesla leadership via the Say Technologies website.
Among SpaceX-related topics, Tesla investors want to know how the two companies plan to collaborate on the Terafab, a chip factory that Musk is planning to build out in Grimes County, Texas, where Tesla is expected to lead R&D and SpaceX is expected to lead production.
As CNBC has previously reported, many fans of Musk want to see his empire consolidated and to see SpaceX and Tesla merge at some point. SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC doing so would make Musk's life easier.
Elon Musk warned that investors betting against SpaceX have little chance of survival — even as short sellers boosted their wagers against the company to about one-third of its publicly tradable shares ahead of several key catalysts.
About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 32% of the company's publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in notional bearish bets, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That's up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just last week, and marks a dramatic increase from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, about a month ago.
"We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company's first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations," Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.
Musk responded to the growing short interest in a post on X, predicting investors betting against the company would ultimately lose.
"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote. "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true."
SpaceX one month
SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The results will give investors their first detailed look at SpaceX's performance since its initial public offering and could provide a fresh test for both bulls and short sellers.
The growing bearish position comes as investors weigh SpaceX's long-term prospects against its valuation and the possibility of additional shares becoming available after lock-up restrictions expire. Bulls point to the company's leadership in launch services, Starlink's expansion, and its artificial intelligence ambitions, while skeptics have questioned how much future growth is already reflected in the stock.
SpaceX shares rose about 7% on Tuesday, on pace to snap a seven-session losing streak after analysts at Macquarie reiterated their outperform rating and urged investors to buy the recent weakness. The stock climbed to around $128, though it remains below its $135 IPO price following a sharp post-listing pullback.
SpaceX Short Bets GrowWith questions on valuation and the high publicity around the SpaceX IPO, the number of short bets against the company has grown, and those betting against the price of the space stock have been raking in paper profits.
Recently, Musk gave a warning to anyone shorting SpaceX stock.
"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk tweeted in response to a user.
The user called into question the people betting against SpaceX, saying they are likely well-educated individuals with "perfect resumes" who don’t understand the long-term potential of SpaceX and its total addressable market.
"The graduates celebrate their six-week victory on a twenty-year bet. Me, I buy your bags on every dip," the user said.
The social media user also quotes a recent tweet from Musk that said SpaceX would be worth more than Earth if the company achieves its goals.
While Musk’s tweet is several days old, it was a reply that may have been buried and not seen by as many people. An article by Teslarati brought the warning into plain sight and could be among the reasons why SpaceX stock is climbing higher Tuesday.
Musk’s History vs. Short SellersThose who have followed Musk for years know that he has a long history with short sellers of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), the electric vehicle company he also leads.
In 2018, Musk told short sellers they had "about three weeks before their short position explodes," as reported by Teslarati.
Musk has said over the years that short selling should be illegal.
The billionaire has also clashed with fellow billionaire Bill Gates, who famously opened a short position against Tesla. Musk refused to talk to Gates about clean energy initiatives and philanthropic efforts unless the billionaire closed his short position.
"Sorry, but I cannot take your philanthropy on climate change seriously when you have a massive short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change," Musk previously told Gates.
In 2024, Musk replied to a user on social media that anyone holding a short position "will be obliterated" when Tesla achieves full autonomy and volume production of the Optimus humanoid robot, adding "even Gates" in a reference to Bill Gates.
Last year, Musk sent the same warning about short sellers being "obliterated" when Tesla reaches "autonomy at scale."
Musk also poked fun at hedge funds and investors shorting the stock by issuing “short shorts” merchandise previously. In July 2020, the Tesla website crashed with the apparel launched for $69.420 each. The shorts remain a popular collector’s item today.
While SpaceX has launched merchandise since going public, there are no short shorts available yet.
SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is up 6.2% to $127.31 on Tuesday versus a trading range of $119.68 to $225.64 since going public at $135 per share in June.
Photo: Thrive Studios ID / Shutterstock
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Key Takeaways Middle East tensions lifted oil prices while AI-led tech weakness dragged broader markets lower. Oil and shipping ETFs DBO, USO and BWET surged on escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions.WEAT climbed on Black Sea and Australian supply concerns, while VXX rose as volatility spiked. Wall Street delivered a downbeat performance last week. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6%, the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite plunged about 2.9% and the Russell 2000 retreated 0.5% last week.
The renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the tech slump mainly led to the slump. Oil prices jumped last week, with the United States Oil Fund LP (USO - Free Report) gaining 10.7% due to the flare-up in tensions between the United States and Iran.
Hormuz Tensions DeepenPresident Trump announced last week that the United States would reimpose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The blockade began on July 14, 2026, with U.S. Central Command saying it would enforce restrictions on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas (read: Leveraged Oil ETFs Likely to Surge as Hormuz Tensions Deepen).
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined since then, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions prompt shipowners to avoid the key energy corridor. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded just 53 vessel transits in the week through July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week, as quoted on CNBC.
Moreover, the U.S. military said a service member was killed after an Iranian attack in northern Iraq on Saturday, a day after an attack on a base in Jordan killed two U.S. soldiers, as quoted on BBC.
Inside the Tech SelloffsInvestors are becoming increasingly cautious about the AI trade as concerns over the sustainability of corporate spending on AI weigh on sentiment. The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, has led the recent market weakness as rising concerns over AI-related capital expenditures and rich valuations dampen investor sentiment.
AI Inflation Fears IntensifyRising expectations that AI could fuel inflation are expected to keep investors on edge. Goldman Sachs cautions that the rapid adoption of AI is likely to fuel inflation globally as supply struggles to keep pace with soaring demand for critical AI components, including memory chips and semiconductors. The United States is likely to be hit the hardest, as quoted on Business Insider.
SK Hynix’s Shares Flat SK Hynix's recent U.S. debut has sparked a wave of new leveraged ETFs likeDirexion Daily SK Hynix Bull 2X ETF (SKHL). However, SK Hynix Inc – ADR (SKHY - Free Report) shares remained flat (read: Tap SK Hynix's Memory Leadership With These New Leveraged ETFs).
SpaceX NosedivesShares of another recent IPO hot-star, SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) , also slumped 14% last week. On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff its 13th flight test from Texas, which wiped off about $100 billion from the company's market value, per Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
ETF Winners Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few winning ETFs of last week.
EnergyInvesco DB Oil Fund (DBO - Free Report) – Up 10.9%
United States Oil Fund LP (USO - Free Report) – Up 10.7%
Oil prices rose last week as the war between the United States and Iran intensified, fueling concerns over disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced last week that the United States would reimpose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping routes were disrupted, driving a sharp surge in freight rates. This has strengthened the investment case for BWET. Broader disruptions across global trade lanes have supported shipping stocks this year, with elevated shipping rates in recent months positioning the fund as a clear beneficiary.
Wheat Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT - Free Report) – Up 6.5%
Wheat prices hit a two-year high last week as traders locked in profits. The Russia-Ukraine conflict showed no signs of easing, with Russian forces resuming strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Black Sea coast in response to recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, per Trading Economics.
Plus, the USDA reported that U.S. wheat net export sales of 235,100 metric tons for the week ended July 9 were below market expectations. Meanwhile, supply concerns emerged in Australia – one of the world’s largest wheat exporters – due to hotter and drier conditions, Trading Economics noted.
Volatility iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX - Free Report) – Up 5.1%
AI jitters, oil risks and inflation fears caused massive volatility last week, causing stocks to slump. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which reflects market expectations of near-term volatility, jumped more than 12% last week, highlighting growing investor anxiety and expectations for heightened market volatility.
Key Takeaways SpaceX's post-IPO rally lost steam as investors questioned its lofty valuation.Staggered insider share sales may increase supply and keep SpaceX stock volatile.Long-term investors may buy the dip; cautious investors can wait for post-lockup stability. Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SPCX - Free Report) made its debut on Wall Street on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. This was one of the largest public listings in history, making founder Elon Musk the first trillionaire in the world, per the BBC.
The stock price immediately shot up to $150 on the first day and then to $176, before closing at $160.95. Consequently, in the next week, the stock saw a spike to $225, overtaking Amazon and Microsoft in total market value, per the BBC.
But inconsistencies started showing up as at the end of its first trading month, shares of SpaceX were sold at around $145 each, which is about 18% less than the high on its first day of trading and 35% less than its peak so far, according to the BBC.
SpaceX delivered average gains of more than 20% per day to its early investors after its IPO, as mentioned by Motley Fool, quoted on Yahoo Finance. However, the stock later slumped to an intraday low of $145.20, then rebounded above $150 in early July, according to Yahoo Finance.
Despite its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 — a move expected to drive buying from index-tracking ETFs and mutual funds — the stock still dropped, surprising investors and analysts, per Yahoo Finance.
What Can Be the Reasons Behind This Instability?As SpaceX enters its post-honeymoon phase with public markets, its biggest rival, Blue Origin, is preparing to raise fresh capital. The rocket company backed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is reportedly seeking funding at a valuation of about $130 billion, marking its first public fundraising round, per a Yahoo Finance article.
For the past 25 years, Blue Origin has been almost entirely financed by Jeff Bezos. Although Blue Origin's latest fundraising (i.e., about $10 billion) is expected to be modest compared with the roughly $85 billion raised by SpaceX in its blockbuster IPO, the move underscores growing investor confidence in Blue Origin's long-term prospects and its ability to compete in the rapidly evolving space economy.
Bezos' Amazon is preparing to launch satellite Internet services through its Amazon LEO network, focusing on delivering high-capacity connectivity solutions for large enterprise customers, positioning it as a future competitor to SpaceX's Starlink.
Valuation Concerns About SpaceXSpaceX remains among the world's most highly valued companies. Investors are increasingly questioning whether current revenues can justify a valuation approaching $2 trillion.
Although revenues are expected to grow rapidly through Starlink subscriptions, launch services and future AI infrastructure, much of that growth remains priced into the stock already, per The Motley Fool. Wall Street, too, is anticipating a range above $200, while the share price of SPCX is struggling to reach $200, per Yahoo Finance.
Gradual Lockup Expiry May Keep SpaceX Stock VolatileAlthough SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, its insider lockup schedule differs from the traditional 180-day restriction followed by most newly listed companies. Elon Musk and his associates agreed not to sell any stock for 366 days after the IPO.
After the company reports its second-quarter earnings, expected in August, eligible insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings. They can then sell an additional 7% of their shares on each of the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th and 135th days after the IPO, bringing the total eligible for sale to 55%.
Following the release of third-quarter earnings results, they can sell another 28%, meaning as much as 83% of non-year-locked insider shares could become available well before the conventional 180-day lockup expires.
The company also has a performance-based provision that would allow insiders to sell an extra 10% of their holdings if SpaceX's stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price for five out of any 10 consecutive trading days, per The Motley Fool, quoted in Yahoo Finance.
However, the stock has not yet reached that threshold. The staggered release of insider shares could lead to periodic waves of selling in the coming months, increasing the stock's supply and potentially creating additional pressure on its share price.
ETFs in FocusDue to SpaceX's IPO in June, some ETFs have become the most direct ways for investors to gain exposure to the company without buying the stock outright. However, their performances have varied depending on how much SpaceX they own and the rest of their portfolios.
Baron First Principles ETF (RONB - Free Report) has been the largest publicly available ETF holder of SpaceX, having total net assets of $328.8 million.
Before the IPO, nearly 16% of the portfolio was invested in SpaceX, per Investing.com. Currently, it has boosted its investment to 31.9%. It has an expense ratio of 1.00%. The fund trades with an average volume of 930,000 shares.
Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS - Free Report) invests across the commercial space ecosystem — launch providers, satellite operators, communications, robotics and related technologies, with assets under management worth $57.7 million.
Following the IPO of SpaceX, MARS has 21.41% of its weightage. It has an expense ratio of 0.75% and trades at an average volume of 175,000 shares a day.
VanEck Space ETF (WARP - Free Report) offers exposure to companies involved in satellite infrastructure, launch services, aerospace and defense technology, with assets under management worth $35.7 million.
SpaceX has a weightage of 21.1% in WARP. The fund charges an expense ratio of 0.50% and trades at an average volume of 121,500 shares a day.
Bottom LineFor investors with a long investment horizon and a higher risk tolerance, the recent correction could present a better entry opportunity than the IPO frenzy. However, conservative investors may prefer to wait until after the lockup period expires and the stock establishes a more stable trading range before initiating or adding to positions.
SpaceX SPCX shares jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing streak after Macquarie reiterated its bullish stance on the stock, saying the recent correction offers investors an attractive entry point into what it describes as a long-term infrastructure and artificial intelligence leader.
The rally lifted the stock to around $127, although it remains below its $135 initial public offering price after a gradual post-listing decline.
Macquarie said the recent weakness has created a disconnect between the company's market valuation and its long-term growth prospects, particularly in AI.
SpaceX shares have been under pressure since their record IPO on June 12 and remain more than 20% below their debut closing price despite Tuesday's rebound.
The stock also suffered a setback last week after the company's 13th Starship test flight was aborted less than a second before liftoff because several engines failed to ignite.
Macquarie analysts, led by Paul Golding, believe those near-term issues have not altered the company's long-term investment case.
Reaffirming an Outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $250, the brokerage said investors continue to underestimate SpaceX's artificial intelligence opportunity in addition to its core aerospace business.
"We see significant upside from AI optionality; achieving only a fraction of terminal compute ambitions could justify valuation above current levels," the analysts wrote.
According to Macquarie, the recent selloff presents a rare opportunity to buy what it describes as a category-defining infrastructure platform at a significant discount to its intrinsic value.
Attention is now turning to Aug. 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to report quarterly earnings for the first time as a publicly traded company.
The earnings release will also trigger the first phase of the company's staggered IPO lock-up expiration.
Unlike the standard six-month lock-up period used in most listings, SpaceX adopted a phased structure intended to reduce the risk of heavy insider selling.
Following the earnings release, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up holdings, representing as many as 911.5 million shares.
An additional 10% of locked-up shares could become eligible for sale if the stock trades at least 30% above its IPO price for five of the ten trading sessions leading up to the earnings report.
The approaching lock-up has become another focal point for investors after a sustained decline in the share price.
The recent weakness has also attracted bearish investors.
Short interest has climbed to roughly one-third of SpaceX's public float in recent weeks as traders positioned for further downside.
Because only a limited portion of shares is available for trading before the lock-up expires, increased short selling has amplified volatility.
Chief Executive Elon Musk dismissed those bearish bets in a post on X on Monday.
"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," Musk wrote.
While Macquarie believes the recent correction has created an attractive buying opportunity, not all analysts agree.
Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson argued last week that the stock remains expensive despite the sharp decline.
"Don't even think about bottom-fishing this one, as it still trades at 92 times trailing revenues," Tilson wrote.
"That means it's still nearly 10 times overvalued, given that I think a generous multiple for the stock would be 10 times revenues."
The contrasting views highlight the debate surrounding SpaceX following its blockbuster IPO, with bulls focusing on its long-term AI and space ambitions while skeptics argue the valuation still leaves little room for execution missteps.
SPCX stock is climbing. See the chart and price action here. Macquarie’s Call and ValuationMacquarie reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX and set a $250 price target in a research note on Tuesday.
The analysts rely on a blend of Sum‑of‑the‑Parts and Discounted Cash Flow analysis, tying valuation to both core launch economics and emerging AI compute revenue streams, according to CNBC.
Macquarie emphasizes "significant upside from AI optionality," arguing that even partial realization of SpaceX’s long‑term compute ambitions could justify valuations far above the current price.
Starlink’s global footprint, reusable launch capacity and internal chip and data‑center build‑out underpin a thesis that SpaceX controls scarce, scalable compute and bandwidth for frontier AI workloads. In this view, orbital networks and vertically integrated data centers form a "compute utility" that can compound far beyond launch revenues.
Compute Demand and Bottleneck ReliefMacquarie highlights hyperscale data centers facing escalating power, cooling and land constraints as AI models grow. SpaceX’s proposed orbital AI data‑center system—up to one million satellites using near‑continuous solar power—aims to sidestep some ground‑based limits while lowering energy intensity per unit of compute.
Macquarie’s upside case assumes that if SpaceX captures only a fraction of terminal AI compute demand with this architecture, its revenue and margin profile could support valuations well above current levels.
The firm’s $250 target implies nearly 100% upside from SPCX current level near $127 per share.
Commercial Traction: Colossus and Big Tech DealsThe thesis is already being tested in the market. Anthropic has inked a deal to use all compute capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center, securing roughly 300 megawatts of power and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs.
These contracts provide early proof of concept for the "rent out unused capacity" strategy and anchor Macquarie’s argument to "buy any dip" as the AI revenue stack scales.
Photo: berni0004 / Shutterstock
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Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, has warned that the AI stocks bubble may be about to burst amid the ongoing selloff in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares.
Schiff believes Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not a bubble. However, he said that the AI stocks bubble has ‘likely already popped’, according to an X post on July 20, which Finbold analyzed on July 21.
“AI isn’t a bubble, but AI stocks are. The bubble has likely already popped,” Schiff noted.
Schiff highlighted that the ongoing SpaceX stock selloff could be a leading indicator of the ongoing AI stocks bubble burst. Furthermore, he argued that AI stocks in the United States are facing intense competition from low-cost Chinese AI models led by Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek Chat.
“SpaceX closed under $120, near the low of the day. That’s more than 11% below the IPO price. The chart is not looking good,” Schiff added in a follow-up post.
Which AI stocks are good to buy in 2026? While Schiff points to an AI stocks bubble burst, AI companies that are aligned with enterprise spending and mainstream adoption of technology are well positioned to benefit. For instance, despite Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) stock dropping more than 28% over the past 30 days, trading at $865.46 at press time, 30 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month target of about $1,569.29, thereby suggesting a potential 81.32% upside.
Additionally, although Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares have dropped 2.57% over the past 30 days, trading at about $203.28 at the time of publication, 37 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month target of $309.94, which signals a possible 52.47% upside.
Meanwhile, 17 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set a 12-month average price target for Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) at $2,041.88, despite the shares falling more than 39% over the past 30 days, to trade at about $1,390 at the time of reporting.
As such, Schiff’s forecast of the AI stocks bubble burst could be invalidated if Wall Street analysts’ targets are achieved over the next 12 months.
Featured image via Peter Schiff YouTube.
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Cathie Wood is known for ignoring short-term obstacles and instead focusing on a company's long-term picture. That has allowed her to get in on some of the world's most exciting and innovative companies at fantastic prices. The chief executive officer of Ark Invest doesn't wait for everyone else to get excited about a stock and pile in; she's known to buy during low periods, when other investors are hesitant, and the particular stock is in the doldrums.
With this in mind, it's no surprise that, as many artificial intelligence (AI) and technology stocks fell in recent days, Wood has been on a buying spree. She recognizes the potential of certain players a few years down the road, so she views today's declines as a key buying opportunity. Wood has picked up shares of a number of stocks over the past few weeks, and two names in particular have shown up more than once in her list of purchases. In fact, she just bought more of the following two discounted stocks on July 17. They've each fallen more than 30% over the past month.
Let's check out the two potential long-term winners that Wood is aggressively buying right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Space Exploration Technologies Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.20%) has been a longtime favorite of Wood. Through the Ark Venture Fund, she invested in the company well before its historic initial public offering. Wood then bought shares of SpaceX in its early days of trading, following the June 12 IPO, and has picked up shares periodically ever since. In her latest move, she bought shares for her flagship Ark Innovation fund, and the Ark Autonomous Technology and Robotics, Ark Next Generation Internet, and Ark Space and Defense Innovation funds.
SpaceX is the top holding in the Ark Space fund and among the top holdings in Ark Innovation and the autonomous technology and robotics fund.
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Wood may view SpaceX as a bargain right now. The stock on July 17 closed at $123.99, lower than its IPO price of $135. Though SpaceX climbed in its initial days of trading, the stock has tumbled in more recent times amid general concerns about tech companies' enormous investments in AI -- and some investors also may worry that SpaceX's capital spending in its AI unit may make it difficult for the company to become profitable any time soon.
SpaceX could have a very bright future if it's able to succeed in the development of certain technologies and reach big goals, such as operating data centers in space. But the company comes with a significant amount of risk right now -- so this Cathie Wood favorite is best left to the most aggressive of investors.
2. CoreWeave Cathie Wood added shares of CoreWeave (CRWV 0.20%) to Ark Innovation and Ark Next Generation Internet on July 17. It's the 16th biggest position in the internet fund and the 20th biggest position in Ark Innovation. Wood has bought shares of this tech player on other occasions in recent weeks, too, so she clearly sees it as a deal to get in on now.
CoreWeave offers something that's in great need at the moment: access to compute for AI workloads. The cloud provider specializes in these types of workloads, helping it stand out from cloud giants like Amazon or Microsoft, which offer a broader range of services well beyond AI.
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CoreWeave allows customers to rent access to its enormous fleet of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs), offering them the advantage of flexibility, speed, and cost savings -- instead of building their own data centers, customers can turn to CoreWeave for exactly what they need, when they need it. CoreWeave works closely with Nvidia, which is also a CoreWeave shareholder, and has been among the first to make Nvidia's platforms generally available.
Like SpaceX, CoreWeave isn't yet profitable and carries some risk, but for aggressive investors, this Cathie Wood stock pick may represent an interesting buying opportunity.
If you own a Nasdaq-100 index fund in your 401(k), you probably bought SpaceX this month automatically. A rule change made the decision for you, and right now it is not looking like a good one.
On July 7, 2026, SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, just 15 trading days after its IPO, the fastest major index inclusion ever, made possible by a new Nasdaq fast-track rule. Normally a newly public company seasons far longer before it qualifies. This time the door opened almost immediately, and the timing matters for retirement savings far beyond Elon Musk’s rocket company.
Why Your 401(k) Had No Choice Index funds track an index mechanically. When the Nasdaq-100 adds a stock, funds tracking it, including Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQM), and related products, must buy that stock regardless of price or valuation. The rule required the purchase of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) regardless of any fund manager’s judgment on its merits.
The scale was enormous. JPMorgan estimated QQQ alone generated about $4.3 billion in buying demand, with total passive flows tied to Nasdaq-100-linked products reaching $22 billion to $27 billion. Most of it hit around the July 6 close and July 7 open, with SPCX trading in the $157 to $161 range. Millions of ordinary investors bought SpaceX at roughly $160 a share, all at once, without choosing it.
The Stock They Never Chose Is Falling SPCX has dropped hard since inclusion. As of the July 20 close, SPCX traded around $119.85, after falling 3.34% that day and about 14% over the past week. That is well below the roughly $160 entry price the index funds paid, below the company’s own IPO and debut prices, and, according to market reporting, roughly 40% beneath its all-time high near $225. It is a textbook sell-the-news slide following index inclusion.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Doing the Rough Math Apply even a mid-teens percentage decline from that roughly $160 entry to $22 billion to $27 billion in forced inflows, and unrealized losses across these index funds plausibly run past $1 billion. With SPCX now near $120, meaningfully below the entry, the billion-dollar estimate looks conservative. No single source has confirmed the exact number, but the direction and scale are hard to dispute.
Who Is Actually Holding This Fidelity and other major 401(k) providers offer Nasdaq-100 index funds as core retirement holdings. Millions of everyday savers now carry SpaceX exposure inside their retirement accounts without researching the company or deciding it belonged in their portfolio.
The Important Caveats Keep perspective. These are unrealized paper losses, and the position is a small slice of a broad index fund. SpaceX carries real long-term bull cases in Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure, alongside bearish concerns around valuation, a limited float, and ongoing losses. It is also telling that the S&P 500 has not added SpaceX, because the company does not yet meet the S&P’s profitability and float requirements. S&P 500 index fund holders were not forced into this position at all.
When an index changes its rules, your retirement account changes with it, automatically, whether the timing makes sense or not.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Six weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 3.20%), was the talk of Wall Street.
On June 12, SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment. This nearly tripled the previous largest-ever IPO capital raise of $29.4 billion from overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco.
Image source: Getty Images.
But IPO buzz fades quickly on Wall Street, and reality can hit even the most-hyped stocks like a ton of bricks. Since peaking at $225.64 per share intra-day on June 16, SpaceX stock has plunged 45% to less than $124 per share (as of the July 17 close).
Some investors will undoubtedly see a bargain, given Elon Musk's track record at Tesla and SpaceX's opportunity amid the two hottest trends on Wall Street: AI and the space economy. I see far more pain to come for shareholders as historical precedent takes hold.
The accelerated unlock period is quickly approaching For starters, SpaceX's insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) are set to enjoy the greatest wealth transfer in history. In a matter of weeks, most insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares to retail investors.
Whereas most newly public companies adhere to a 180-day lockup period, in which insiders can't sell their shares, SpaceX offers a staggered and accelerated unlock schedule that begins two days after the company's first quarterly operating report as a public company. SpaceX is currently estimated to report its latest quarterly operating results on Aug. 6.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 The company's float is set to grow every few weeks through mid-December, adding downside pressure on SpaceX stock.
Historically, SpaceX's valuation is a nightmare Although it's not uncommon for investors to place high premiums on companies at the forefront of game-changing technologies, SpaceX's valuation is historical nightmare fuel.
No company heralding the charge of a leading innovation has ever sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 for any lengthy period. SpaceX is currently trading at 42 times Wall Street's consensus sales estimate for this year. In other words, Musk's company would need to fall nearly 30% more from its current level just to push below historic bubble territory.
Furthermore, the company isn't particularly close to recurring profits, and its capital-intensive operating model leaves virtually no margin for error or delays.
Image source: Getty Images.
Debt and equity offerings are coming To round things out, SpaceX's prospectus made clear that, in addition to its IPO capital raise, debt and equity offerings would be used to fund the company's AI infrastructure expansion, among other corporate initiatives.
Less than two weeks after going public, the company priced a $25 billion bond offering, with maturities from 2031 to 2056. The price of these bonds has been falling steadily since issuance, signifying concern from bondholders that SpaceX may be unable to meet its obligations.
Additionally, equity offerings would be dilutive to existing shareholders. Given that SpaceX is spending a small fortune on its AI data center build-out, capital-raising activity that weighs on the company's shares is a near-certainty.
SPCX 46% Below Its HighIn a post on X on Monday, the investor shared his take on AI stocks’ decline and the emergence of Chinese competitors. “More air is coming out of the AI bubble as Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 intensifies low-cost Chinese competition,” Schiff said in the post.
The investor then outlined SpaceX’s recent decline, saying that the commercial space flight giant’s stock was trading at $121/share when he made the post, which was “almost 11% below its IPO price and more than 46% below its high.” Schiff then said that AI was not a bubble, but “AI stocks” were. “The bubble has likely already popped,” the investor said.
In the same thread, Schiff commented on SPCX declining further. “SpaceX closed under $120, near the low of the day,” he said, which was more than 11% below the IPO price of $135/share, according to the investor. “The chart is not looking good,” Schiff said.
Bearish Outlooks on SpaceXWhitney Tilson, a former hedge fund manager, expressed bearish sentiments on the company’s stock, saying that SpaceX was still trading “at 92 times trailing revenues,” which was “nearly 10 times overvalued,” he said in a newsletter.
According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 0.38% at $120.30 during the after-hours trading on Monday.
Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.34%) had a hugely successful IPO in June. The company's shares opened at $150, well above its $135 IPO price. The stock kept rising for a couple of weeks, reaching a high of about $225. Alas, since then, it's been a straight southbound trajectory for the space company, and as of writing, the stock has dropped 11% below its IPO price. Is SpaceX worth investing in at current levels?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
A recent delay raises questions Many of SpaceX's grand ambitions rest on its ability to continue innovating within its space segment. The company is working on Starship, a rocket that could help it further cut space travel costs. Starship is fully reusable -- unlike its Falcon 9, which is only partly so -- and has a much larger payload capacity. Starship is still in testing, and on July 16, it was supposed to take off for its thirteenth flight test. Unfortunately, that didn't happen as the flight was aborted due to multiple engine failures.
Considering how central Starship is to SpaceX's future, some investors may see this setback as a red flag. But it isn't that big a deal. Delays of this kind are quite common in the industry, and, at any rate, the company plans to try again on July 23. The setback certainly doesn't help SpaceX's short-term performance, but for investors focused on the long game, it is nothing to be too concerned about.
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More serious problems There are other reasons to be skeptical of SpaceX's ability to perform well over the long run, especially for investors considering buying the stock at current levels. True, it is down significantly from its all-time highs, but it is still worth $1.6 trillion, even though it isn't consistently profitable yet. The company's losses could get even worse as it continues to invest small fortunes within its artificial intelligence (AI) segment, where it sees a massive $26.5 trillion opportunity.
During the first three months of the year, SpaceX spent $7.7 billion in capex for its AI business, representing an annual run rate of $30.8 billion. That's significantly higher than the $12.7 billion in capex it spent in this segment last year. The worst part is that SpaceX is likely still years away from tapping into many of the opportunities it thinks it can capitalize on in the AI industry. In the meantime, net losses could expand, and it could face significantly more competition within its two other business units, space and connectivity.
So, my view is that SpaceX's medium outlook isn't great, and the stock isn't a buy at current levels. SpaceX has significant potential and is worth keeping on investors' watchlists, but it's best to wait for a steeper decline before initiating a position.
SpaceX is experiencing significant turbulence. Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) fell more than 3% Monday to close at a fresh low of just below $120, extending their decline to a seventh consecutive session.
Cory Johnson, chief market strategist at Epistrophy Capital Research, analyzes SpaceX's business model and revenue streams, examines the company's AI capabilities compared to its competition and previews the upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. Cory also takes a closer look at the impact Elon Musk has on his companies and what that means for the stock price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), the rocket, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence company known as SpaceX, saw its shares fall shar
SpaceX (SPCX) is experiencing a decline in stock value, even with the announcement of July 23 as the target date for the second attempt at Starship's thirteent
Less than a week after the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO), Representative William Timmons, a Republican from South Carolina, purchased SpaceX stock.
Timmons invested between $50,001 and $100,000 in SpaceX on June 15 and disclosed the transaction on June 17, according to a Periodic Transaction Report he signed on July 19. As such, Timmons is the fifth member of Congress to buy SpaceX stock, according to an analysis from Nancy Pelosi stock tracker on July 20.
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Notably, Timmons’ SpaceX stock purchase was his first stock disclosure in six years, thus making it his high-conviction trade. Furthermore, he sits on two key committees, including the House Committee on Financial Services, with subcommittees on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and AI, Housing and Insurance, and Financial Institutions.
Timmons is also a member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, where he chairs the Subcommittee on Military and Foreign Affairs and serves on the Delivering on Government Efficiency (DOGE) Subcommittee.
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This committee leadership gives him unique visibility into SpaceX’s expanding role as a critical U.S. military contractor, delivering essential launch services, Starshield satellite capabilities, and resilient communications systems that bolster national defense priorities.
SpaceX stock falls despite Congress supports Despite the notable support for SPCX stock by several members of Congress, the shares recently dropped below the IPO price. At press time, SpaceX shares traded at about $124.56, down approximately 7.7% from its IPO level, with a market capitalization of nearly $1.6 trillion.
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold
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In the near term, SPCX stock could drop further before following Wall Street analysts’ bullish forecast, as Finbold reported. Furthermore, the conviction from several Congress members, which comes with informed decision-making, could bolster investors’ confidence in SpaceX stock in the long term.
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While the broader space economy experiences unprecedented structural growth and expanding total addressable markets, its largest publicly traded company faces a profound identity crisis following a $1 trillion valuation contraction.
SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX went public on June 12 at $135 per share. Just over a month later, shares slid below that initial offering price, closing Friday, July 17 at $123.99.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Monday, July, 20, 2026
Market participants fundamentally mispriced SpaceX by anchoring institutional valuation models to capital-intensive launch logistics rather than scalable artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure.
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Now, reported talks over a multi-billion-dollar Pentagon AI infrastructure contract could help determine whether the company can validate its premium valuation multiple or whether the reset continues.
Gravity Takes Hold of Launch LogisticsSpaceX Today
$121.90 -2.09 (-1.69%)
As of 02:55 PM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$120.10▼
$225.64Price Target$234.78
To understand the scale of the recent sell-off, investors can examine the mathematical friction between SpaceX's core business model and its stock price.
At its post-IPO peak, market capitalization metrics implied a valuation of nearly $2.95 trillion under high-end pricing dynamics. Today, that number sits at $1.62 trillion. Evaporating over $1 trillion in market value in a few short weeks forces a recalibration of how Wall Street models aerospace sector growth.
Much of this contraction stems from a fundamental mismatch in valuation multiples. SpaceX currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 83x. A price-to-sales ratio indicates how much the market is willing to pay for every dollar of top-line revenue a business generates. Multiples exceeding 80x are traditionally reserved for high-margin software businesses boasting gross margins of 70% to 80%. SpaceX’s launch business is exceptionally capital-intensive. Building, testing, and launching reusable rockets requires substantial upfront capital expenditures, which naturally compress profit margins.
Recent quarterly financial results highlight this friction. SpaceX reported a negative earnings per share of negative $1.27 against $4.69 billion in revenue. When legacy hardware execution stalls, seen recently with the highly publicized delays surrounding the Starship Flight 13 abort, algorithmic and institutional trading models aggressively de-risk. The sell-off suggests that physical rocket launches alone cannot sustain software-level premium multiples in the current macroeconomic environment.
Finding a Defense Cloud LifelineIf launch operations alone cannot support a $1.62 trillion valuation, SpaceX must make a structural pivot to high-margin revenue streams. Reported talks over a multibillion-dollar cloud-computing agreement with the Department of Defense offer a potential catalyst.
This proposed integration of sovereign AI computing capabilities positions SpaceX as a neocloud infrastructure provider. Sovereign AI refers to a nation producing artificial intelligence using its own localized infrastructure, data, and workforce, ensuring absolute national security. By expanding its existing aerospace, connectivity, and AI platform into defense computing, SpaceX could move further toward the high-margin profile Wall Street demands.
Looking at the broader market demonstrates the institutional appetite for this type of digital infrastructure. Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS recently secured a substantial compute deal, pushing its contracted backlog to roughly $50 billion. This demonstrates a highly profitable revenue floor available for functional AI data processing.
A formalized Pentagon contract could bridge the gap between hardware and software by providing the high-margin, recurring revenue stream SpaceX requires to justify the current premium valuation multiple. Without this transition, sustaining a price-to-sales multiple of more than 80x becomes very difficult.
Floating in Space: Short Sellers Face a Binary OrbitThis potential shift to a neocloud model creates an incredibly volatile dynamic for short sellers. Institutional funds have capitalized aggressively on post-IPO hardware execution failures, accumulating an estimated $8.7 billion in unrealized gains by betting heavily against SpaceX. Those short positions currently face severe asymmetric risk due to post-IPO float constraints.
Following the initial public offering, standard 180-day lock-up agreements restrict insiders and early investors from selling their shares until December. This creates a temporary limited-float environment, meaning fewer shares are actively available for open-market trading.
When the supply is restricted, borrowing costs can rise, increasing the expense of maintaining bearish positions. If a formal Department of Defense contract triggers a sudden upside re-rating, short sellers could be forced to buy back shares at a premium to cover their positions, potentially igniting a violent price reversal.
However, institutional skepticism remains entirely justified. Executing a highly complex military AI compute contract requires strong software and infrastructure execution, a competency SpaceX has yet to prove fully. The company recently stumbled with its internal AI initiatives, as its Grok platform failed to capture meaningful market share and ceded ground to legacy tech competitors.
Wall Street is currently weighing the mechanical threat of a catalyst-driven short squeeze against legitimate, fundamental concerns regarding internal software capabilities. Options chain data shows elevated implied volatility skew toward August, indicating market makers could be pricing in extreme directional moves as the market digests this binary execution risk.
Orbital Infrastructure Keeps Gaining AltitudeWhile SpaceX attempts to reconcile its valuation crisis, the broader commercial space sector continues to capture significant institutional liquidity. The space economy macro thesis remains heavily bullish, completely independent of single-stock volatility. International state-backed reusable rocket programs in China and Japan are accelerating, rapidly expanding the total addressable market for orbital infrastructure.
While the recent SpaceX drawdown temporarily rattled smaller peers like AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS, dragging its shares down 18% in sympathy, this event could actually point toward a healthy sector decoupling.
Current Price$124.62High Forecast$800.00Average Forecast$234.78Low Forecast$115.00SpaceX Stock Forecast Details
Capital exiting the crowded IPO trade is systematically rotating into secondary satellite architecture and orbital infrastructure equities, establishing more sustainable valuation floors across the broader commercial space economy.
The long-term demand drivers for sovereign space defense and commercial satellite broadband remain intact, providing a fertile environment for businesses with clear paths to profitability.
Investors evaluating the aerospace sector may want to monitor the progress of these Department of Defense negotiations, which could serve as a primary catalyst for SpaceX stock.
Those with a higher risk tolerance might consider SpaceX if management demonstrates a clear path to AI margin improvement, while cautious investors may prefer to wait for official contract filings before taking a position, given the elevated binary risk tied to share supply constraints and AI execution.
Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SpaceX wasn't on the list.
While SpaceX currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
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Pity Elon Musk and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.70%). They just can't seem to catch a break.
Last week, SpaceX stock tumbled below its IPO price, making the space stock officially a broken IPO, after SpaceX announced that it needed to scrub a planned Starship test flight after multiple engines refused to ignite at launch. SpaceX shares closed the week below $124 a share, and continued to fall on Monday -- down 3% in the morning, and still down about 1% as of 1:10 p.m. ET.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Go for launch later Not to worry, though. No sooner had SpaceX scrubbed its Thursday launch than Elon Musk promised to try again in a few days after switching out the glitchy engines for new ones.
To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed & replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.
-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026 This morning, SpaceX confirmed its intent to launch on Thursday, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 6:45 p.m. ET. That didn't prevent investors from taking the one-week delay as an excuse to cash out of SpaceX stock, however, which has ceased to be a momentum stock but isn't yet (anywhere near) a value stock.
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Is SpaceX stock cheap? When will SpaceX become a value stock?
Not anytime soon, I fear. Even trading below $123 today -- $12 below its IPO price -- SpaceX shares cost a staggering 84 times trailing revenue, and infinity times the profits it's not yet earning. Analysts do predict SpaceX will turn profitable next year -- but there's no guarantee they're right.
Investors may have been willing to forgive this lack of a defensible valuation when SpaceX stock was going nowhere but up. Now that gravity has reasserted its hold on SpaceX stock, however, there's really no reason to buy SpaceX until the math adds up.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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The largest initial public offering (IPO) is in the books with Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX 1.70%), also known as SpaceX, officially beginning trading last month. There are, however, a couple of highly anticipated IPOs still expected to come this year, including OpenAI and Anthropic, two big players in artificial intelligence (AI).
Both companies are expected to go public in the near future, and while there's no word on when OpenAI's stock might begin trading, Anthropic's IPO could be coming soon, potentially by October. Could it be a great buying opportunity, and will it do better than SpaceX?
Image source: Getty Images.
Anthropic is meeting with investors, suggesting the company is moving closer to its IPO According to a CNBC report, Anthropic has been scheduling meetings with investors, a sign it is getting closer to its highly anticipated stock offering. However, the IPO may still be a few months away, with Bloomberg projecting it may not be available until October. But a date hasn't been formally announced, nor is the S-1 filing available yet, which details the company's financial results and growth opportunities.
Anthropic is known for its Claude AI models, which are highly popular with coders. It was most recently valued at $965 billion, all but ensuring it'll hit the market at a much lower valuation than SpaceX, which reached a $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading.
SpaceX has been able to drive a high value despite incurring losses totaling nearly $5 billion last year. The big question mark around Anthropic is whether its losses will be as big or if the company is much closer to profitability. Those details, however, won't be available until the S-1 filing is released, which should be closer to the IPO.
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SpaceX's stock did well on its first day, but it has been falling in recent weeks, under the weight of its massive valuation. Anthropic is likely to be more modestly valued, but its growth prospects will also not be nearly as massive or promising as those of SpaceX, which is pursuing opportunities not only in space but also in AI and the telecom sector. Thus, the AI stock may still look expensive in relation to its overall size.
Anthropic may encounter similar challenges to SpaceX, given that its valuation is likely to be rich out of the gate, which could impact its early returns, and that's why I don't think it'll do a whole lot better than SpaceX, if at all.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +0.39%) have been in a tailspin of late. The rocket company, which is also eyeing massive opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), initially soared when its shares began trading last month, but the rally has since cooled significantly. Last week, the stock fell to below its IPO price of $135, closing at just under $124 on Friday.
Will the stock, which is more commonly known as just SpaceX, continue to fall, or is it likely to bounce back? Here's where I think it's headed.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why SpaceX's stock could finish the year below $100 SpaceX, for all its hype, is a grossly overvalued stock that's based primarily on rosy expectations of future growth rather than strong fundamentals. That's a big risk, particularly in a market that looks as frothy as this one. Although the stock's initial gains were promising and at one point it looked like its valuation could rise above $3 trillion, a pullback was highly likely. In fact, it's come sooner than I expected.
However, even today, with the stock's value falling, its market cap remains extremely high at $1.6 trillion. This is, after all, a business that generated $19 billion in sales last year and incurred a net loss of more than $4.9 billion. Those are not the kinds of numbers you'd expect from a business at this type of valuation. Momentum and excitement can drive a stock's value higher, but it's unlikely to last long.
As lockups on SpaceX's stock begin expiring later this year, insiders may have a strong incentive to sell their shares, given the company's inflated valuation. Thus, there may be more downward pressure on the stock in the near future. This is why I don't think it's a huge stretch to expect the stock to trade far lower this year, and why it may finish the year below $100.
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Buying SpaceX stock today is a big gamble If SpaceX can put data centers in space and help send humans to Mars, its valuation could skyrocket. The problem with its growth story is that it's based on exceptionally high hopes, and the person leading the business, Elon Musk, is known for making rosy forecasts and setting expectations high, only to often fall short in one way or another.
High expectations combined with poor financials could doom SpaceX stock to fall further in both the short and long term, which is why I'd stay far away from it.
HomeInvestingStocksOutside the BoxOutside the BoxThe hidden danger of chasing hyped initial public offerings? Skipping the fine print.July 20, 2026, 10:21 a.m. ET
Not long ago, I was at a dinner where a guest described the lengths they had gone to in pursuit of SpaceX shares SPCX. They searched for venture funds that happened to own the company. They looked for former employees willing to sell. They explored secondary marketplaces where shares traded at eye-watering premiums. They tried to get into a co-invest. They asked custodians if there was any way to source stock at IPO. Each path led to another dead end or another markup they shied away from.
SpaceX shares continued their decline on Monday, falling about 1.25% to around $122. The stock remained well below its $135 initial public offering price.
After having to abort its launch on July 16, Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +0.64%) has rescheduled its 13th test flight for Starship to Thursday, July 23.
Starship is the company’s heavy-lift, fully reusable rocket that SpaceX has invested over $15 billion in so far.
The rocket is key to the company’s thesis, which hinges on SpaceX being able to launch super-heavy payloads into orbit with quick turnaround times.
With the stock struggling as of late, the market will be paying close attention to the upcoming test flight. Here’s what investors need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
What the test flight will seek to accomplishStarship’s 13th test flight is looking to perform similar objectives as previous test flights, specifically “a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America,” according to the company.
Furthermore, the company has made changes to Starship’s hardware and software to correct issues that occurred on test flight 12.
SpaceX has altered the startup sequence, so Starship can better change directions. Test flight 12 had some issues with its directional flip, which was off by roughly 90 degrees.
Last Thursday, as Starship prepared for its 13th test flight, an automated abort command got triggered after four of the ship’s 33 engines failed to ignite, according to Reuters.
On X, SpaceX Founder Elon Musk wrote that the company is planning to replace two of the Raptor engines on Starship’s boosters.
Everything hinges on StarshipThe market did not respond well to the launch abort last week, erasing $100 billion of market cap that day, despite setbacks on test flights not being all that uncommon.
But it shows just how crucial Starship is to SpaceX’s future.
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A massive part of SpaceX’s total addressable market and therefore valuation has to do with the company’s artificial intelligence unit, which is heavily focused on launching orbital data centers that can gobble up significant AI compute market share.
In SpaceX’s registration statement, the company says that Starship’s fully-reusable rocket is designed to carry 100 metric tons to Earth’s orbit “while enabling rapid turnaround times akin to commercial aviation,” with future Starship models designed to double capacity.
The company also expects Starship to begin orbital payload delivery by the second half of this year, with orbital AI compute satellites to be deployed as earlI as 2028. it’s hard to know how close Starship is to getting to this point.
That said, having Starship be so important to the thesis could turn out to be a tailwind if SpaceX proves the bears wrong.
"If this is how the market reacts to a precautionary abort, I can't wait to see how it responds to a successful flight," Space Capital CEO Chad Anderson told Reuters, adding that he views the company as a long-term opportunity. "Zoom out and none of this changes the thesis: we're in the early innings of a multi-decade infrastructure cycle, and Starship is the centerpiece."
Anderson may very well be right, but no one can say with certainty whether Starship will work as expected, stick to the company’s timeline, or be able to turnaround missions like a typical airline.
This in my view makes SpaceX stock a big gamble, especially given it’s already massive valuation.
I don’t think it’s bad to take a smaller, more speculative position, given the company’s potential, but I see making the stock a large position as too risky right now.
The aerospace market is reaching new heights as Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.60%) and Archer Aviation (ACHR +8.78%) race to revolutionize how humans move through the atmosphere and beyond.
SpaceX is an established leader in reusable rockets and satellite connectivity, while Archer focuses on short distance urban air mobility. Both companies represent ambitious bets on the future of flight, making them compelling options for investors looking to gain exposure to long term technological shifts in transportation.
SpaceX designs and operates reusable rockets, the Starship vehicle, and the Starlink satellite broadband network. It aims to build integrated connectivity and artificial intelligence infrastructure for Earth and beyond. While the company serves a wide range of government and commercial clients, specific customer concentration details are not disclosed in public filings.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $18.7 billion, an increase of approximately 33% from the $14 billion reported in the previous year. Despite this top-line growth, the company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion for the fiscal year. This performance reflects the massive capital requirements for building out the global Starlink network and developing next-generation heavy-lift rockets.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 1.4x, indicating the company maintains sufficient short-term assets to cover its immediate liabilities. Free cash flow, calculated as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was about negative $14 billion in FY 2025. Note that stock-based compensation (SBC) accounted for roughly 28.7% of operating cash flow, inflating reported cash generation, since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.
The case for Archer AviationArcher Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for commercial and military use. This growth among industrial stocks is anchored by an agreement with United Airlines Holdings (UAL +0.51%) providing for the conditional purchase of up to $1.0 billion in Midnight aircraft. The company also partners with the U.S. Air Force and Stellantis (STLA +0.26%) for manufacturing support.
In FY 2025, Archer Aviation reported revenue of $300,000. This early-stage revenue was accompanied by a net loss of approximately $618.2 million. This reflects a company still in its pre-commercial phase as it pursues aircraft type and production certification.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.1x. This ratio measures total debt, including short- and long-term obligations, against shareholders' equity, with a lower number indicating less reliance on borrowed money. Free cash flow was negative at $511.7 million, representing the cash remaining after operating and capital spending are covered.
Risk profile comparisonSpaceX operates in a technically complex environment where launch failures or mission delays can result in significant financial setbacks. The company faces stiff competition from established aerospace giants like The Boeing Co (BA 1.70%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.77%). Rapidly evolving regulations regarding satellite constellations and space debris also pose potential hurdles for its Starlink division.
Archer Aviation faces significant regulatory and certification risks, as it must secure final approvals from the FAA before launching commercial flights. The company has incurred over $2.3 billion in losses since its inception and requires substantial capital to scale its manufacturing and infrastructure. It also faces intense competition from Joby Aviation (JOBY 0.41%) and must navigate ongoing legal proceedings regarding trade secrets.
Valuation comparisonNeither is projected to make a profit in the coming 12 months, while Space Exploration Technologies maintains a lower valuation relative to its current sales.
MetricSpace Exploration TechnologiesArcher AviationSector BenchmarkForward P/En/an/a240.6xP/S ratio84.0x1,590xn/aSector benchmark uses the SPDR XLI sector ETF.
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?SpaceX's various businesses intend to leverage the company's core launch capabilities, starting with reusable rockets. The ability to reuse boosters significantly lowers per-launch costs and spreads fixed manufacturing costs across multiple missions. Expectations are that scaling up quickly will happen, with Wall Street analysts projecting $39 billion in sales for fiscal 2026 with a much lower net loss, around $1.6 billion, and move into profitability in 2027.
The lack of free cash flow appears to be crushing; however, projections indicate free cash flow will be negative $28 billion this year, then jump to negative $67 billion in 2027.
Still, the success of Tesla Inc (TSLA 1.12%) has made founder Elon Musk the richest man in the world and raised expectations that he can make an even greater fortune from SpaceX, as Space Exploration Technologies Corp is known. The business certainly has market support behind it, raising the world’s largest IPO, $85.7 billion this year.
Turning to Archer Aviation, the federal government created the framework last year for real-world testing of eVTOL aircraft, a concrete step toward making Archer's vision a reality. Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia are other countries building similar regulatory frameworks. A lot still has to happen for Archer’s aircraft to get into the skies, but the notion that the nation's airspace is being regulated in a way that is holding back growth is one that has found favor.
Archer is taking steps to refurbish a small Los Angeles airport for use as its testing grounds and is working to scale up its manufacturing capabilities to eventually reach capacity for 50 planes a year. Management has an initial plan to focus on military and cargo uses for its plane, which would be an easier path to early revenue. Future estimates are speculative, but Wall Street analysts see Archer turning its first profit in 2030, with $2.3 billion in revenue, but a lot has to go right between now and then.
Both businesses have big aspirations. SpaceX, however, has a very real business in Starlink, which mitigates the possibility that grander plans won’t come to fruition. Meanwhile, the aviation industry has shown there are few competitive moats, and Archer comes at a very high P/S multiple. For 2026, SpaceX is the stock to seek profits with.
As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock dropped below its IPO (initial public offering) price, Finbold AI Agent – an advanced financial assistance tool – has made a bold prediction for SpaceX stock.
On July 20, the Finbold AI Agent predicted that SpaceX stock would decline by an average of 4.8% by August 1. As August 1 falls on a Saturday, the forecast places SPCX at approximately $118 at the close on Friday, July 31.
SPCX stock forecast. Source: Finbold The Finbold AI Agent leveraged 5 Large Language Models (LLMs), including DeepSeek Chat, Gemini 3.5 Flash, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.7, and Grok 4.5. The AI’s SpaceX stock price forecast for the next 12 days is bearish, possibly due to the post IPO sell-off.
Despite investors pouring $320 million into SpaceX stock in July so far, the shares have declined by over 21%. As a result, SpaceX’s market capitalization has declined by over $1.3 trillion from its all-time high in recent weeks, with the company now valued at approximately $1.6 trillion at the time of reporting.
SPCX stock price chart. Source: Finbold. Wall Street remains bullish on SpaceX stock Despite the bearish outlook for SPCX stock from AI, Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the company over the long term. Precisely, 29 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have initiated an average Strong Buy for SPCX shares.
SPCX stock price forecast. Source: TipRanks As such, these analysts have set an average 12-month price target of $243.81 for SpaceX, signaling a possible 96.6% upside. Ahead of the planned 13th test flight for the company’s Starship as early as July 23, Douglas Harned, an analyst from Bernstein, reiterated a Buy rating due to its transformative impact on long-term growth.
Consequently, if more investors continue to buy SpaceX stock due to its robust fundamentals, the midterm bearish forecast could be invalidated, and vice versa.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has undergone a sharp reversal just weeks after completing the largest IPO in history, raising questions about whether the pullback presents a buying opportunity or signals further downside.
After debuting at $135 per share in June 2026 and rallying to a post-IPO high of about $226, SpaceX stock has fallen to $124 as of press time.
The decline of roughly 45% from its peak has pushed shares below their IPO price and wiped nearly $1 trillion from the company’s market value, reducing its valuation from about $2.6 trillion to $1.6 trillion.
SPCX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold Why SpaceX stock plunged post-IPO The sell-off reflects a common post-IPO pattern, with early enthusiasm giving way to profit-taking, insider selling, and valuation concerns.
Additional pressure has come from share unlocks, rising short interest, a recent Starship testing setback, and a broader pullback in speculative technology stocks. Even so, SpaceX remains among the world’s most valuable public companies.
The strongest case for buying SpaceX stock is Starlink, the company’s primary revenue and profit driver.
The satellite broadband service now serves more than 10 million users worldwide, generating recurring, high-margin revenue from consumer, enterprise, and government customers, including Starshield contracts.
Notably, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up 33% year-over-year, with revenue projected to reach between $22 billion and $30 billion in 2026 if subscriber growth and launch activity remain strong.
While Starlink powers current growth, the long-term investment case largely depends on the success of Starship.
The next-generation rocket could significantly reduce launch costs if development stays on track. A successful rollout would support faster satellite deployments, in-orbit refueling, lunar missions, and new opportunities such as orbital data centers.
However, Starship remains in testing and faces execution risks. Technical setbacks, regulatory challenges, or development delays could weigh on investor sentiment and future growth prospects.
As a result, upcoming Starship flight tests may be more important than short-term stock movements in shaping SpaceX’s long-term valuation.
Is SpaceX a buy? Whether SpaceX stock is a buy at current levels largely depends on an investor’s time horizon.
The 45% decline has reduced some of the valuation excess seen after the IPO, but SpaceX still trades at a premium to many established technology and industrial companies. Even after the sell-off, its valuation remains heavily tied to future growth rather than current profitability.
Although revenue continues to expand, SpaceX reported a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 as it invested heavily in infrastructure, research and development, artificial intelligence initiatives, and Starship development.
Investors bullish on satellite communications, reusable space transportation, and the broader space economy may view the pullback as a more attractive entry point.
More cautious investors may prefer to wait for evidence of sustained profitability, successful Starship milestones, and the completion of major share unlock events.
Key near-term catalysts include earnings results, Starlink subscriber growth, and Starship test flights. Strong execution could improve sentiment, while operational setbacks or insider selling may keep the stock volatile.
Joining the Nasdaq-100 represents a big milestone, as it includes the biggest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq. The idea is, once a company joins, it may see its share price advance as managers of funds tracking this index buy shares -- since their funds must mimic the index's performance, they have to make these additions.
The Nasdaq-100 rebalances annually to remove certain members and add new ones, and it also may add members at other points in the year. And this brings me to the reason why the Nasdaq-100 has drawn attention in recent times. The index adjusted its admission rules to allow companies in sooner after their market launches than ever before -- and that resulted in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) joining the Nasdaq-100 earlier this month.
So now, with SpaceX newly in the index, investors may be wondering: What happens to stocks after joining the benchmark? History has a clear answer.
Image source: Getty Images.
An Elon Musk-led company So, first, a note about SpaceX. The company, a giant in rocket launches, satellite-based connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI), has drawn great attention from investors due to this dynamic mix of businesses. And some investors also like the idea of being involved in a business led by Elon Musk. Also at the helm of electric vehicle giant Tesla, he's known for his commitment to innovation.
SpaceX's IPO, the world's largest, was massively oversubscribed, and the stock rose right out of the gate, gaining 67% from the IPO price of $135 to a peak of $225 on June 16. And the company's trillion-dollar valuation helped it land a spot on the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, about 15 days after its launch as part of the index's new "fast track" rules. Prior to this, a company had to wait at least three months for inclusion.
So far, the Nasdaq-100 addition hasn't brought SpaceX lasting gains. The stock has declined from its peak, and as of the July 17 market close, SpaceX traded at $123.99, significantly below its IPO price.
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New additions to the Nasdaq-100 For some clues about what may happen next, let's turn to history. We'll consider some of the new additions to the index over the past three years and their performances in the two months following their entrance.
As we can see, six out of 10 stocks advanced during this time period. But in the case of Seagate Technology and Western Digital, we can't attribute the movement to entrance in the index: Both companies are involved in the booming AI memory and storage businesses, and stocks in the industry have soared this year.
So history offers us a clear answer: While a stock may see a bit of upward momentum around the time of its addition to the index, it's generally limited in size and duration. In some cases, it's hardly even noticeable.
SpaceX has echoed this, advancing slightly right after the addition. But then the stock plummeted in the days to follow.
SPCX data by YCharts
Look to earnings What does this mean for you as an investor? A stock's entry into a particular index isn't a reason to add that player to your portfolio. It's great that a company is acknowledged as a giant of the times, but this doesn't necessarily make it a fantastic investment. Instead, investors should look to the company's earnings track record, or if the company isn't yet profitable, consider its path to profitability: Does it have a clear roadmap and goals that are attainable? And it's important to consider your own investment style too.
For example, SpaceX isn't yet profitable, and some of its biggest goals rely on technology that hasn't yet been proven -- if the company reaches its goals, it may be a smashing success, but along the way, the stock carries a significant amount of risk. So, while SpaceX may be appropriate for a very aggressive investor, it's not the best choice for a cautious investor.
History offers us a clear message: Nasdaq-100 membership, while exciting, isn't the key to stock performance. All of this means it's a better idea to turn our attention to the company's -- whether it's SpaceX or another -- next earnings reports and progress toward goals.
There's little doubt that Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) will remain the biggest and best-known name in the space business for at least the next five years. In terms of performance, though, bigger isn't always better. There's another much smaller space company that's likely to be more rewarding to its shareholders, not despite its size, but because of it.
That company is Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.59%).
Image source: Getty Images.
Rocket Lab in focus If you're not familiar with it, it's simple enough. Rocket Lab makes reusable orbital launch vehicles. In other words, rockets. Its flagship product/service right now is a relatively small rocket -- called Electron -- that's capable of putting up to 660 pounds worth of payload into low Earth orbit. And it's now been launched 91 times, deploying over 260 satellites.
The company's thinking bigger, though. While still in the testing stage, Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, expected to begin its initial flights near the end of this year, can lift up to 14 tons worth of cargo, or even launch missions to Mars. With this sort of medium-lift potential, Rocket Lab will be competing with some of SpaceX's launch capabilities.
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In the meantime, the company also provides satellite components and can even help companies design and build this orbiting equipment.
Ready to outperform But can Rocket Lab actually beat massive SpaceX at its own game?
Probably not. However, that's not quite the question investors are asking. What most investors want to know is how the two stocks will perform compared to one another for the foreseeable future.
That's where recently IPO'd and richly valued SpaceX shares face a distinct disadvantage. Like most other initial public offerings, this one is likely to founder for at least a year (if not more) while the market digests the fact that the $1.6 trillion behemoth isn't likely to justify this market cap with actual earnings anytime soon.
For perspective, SpaceX generated just under $19 billion in revenue last year, with the bulk of that coming from artificial intelligence rather than space-launch services or satellite-based broadband service Starlink.
Granted, that's the market where Musk expects most of the growth opportunity to take shape. SpaceX's IPO prospectus suggests there's $26.5 trillion in AI business up for grabs in the foreseeable future.
The only problem? It's not clear where he's getting the number, nor is there a time frame attached to it.
There's also the not-so-small matter that the AI business is already a crowded one, with powerhouses like Alphabet and Microsoft capable of keeping SpaceX's artificial intelligence efforts in check. It would take a sizable chunk of this potential revenue to justify SpaceX's value, and there's no guarantee it will produce it.
One thing is for sure. There's not enough future revenue on the table for Starlink or space launches alone to justify SPCX stock's present price, never mind the company's complexity and subsequent lack of focus.
Meanwhile, shares of tightly focused companies have been more than halved since their May peak, mostly to make room for SpaceX's arrival to the publicly traded market. This only adds to the potential rebound stemming from this year's expected year-over-year revenue growth of 53%.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%) completed its landmark initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. Investor enthusiasm propelled SpaceX stock sharply higher than the IPO price, with shares opening on the Nasdaq around $150 on the first day of trading and closing near $161. The offering valued SpaceX at more than $2 trillion -- making it the largest IPO in history.
Momentum continued briefly as the stock reached an intraday peak of $225.64 just days after the IPO. However, shares have since given back all of those gains and then some.
As of the close of trading on Friday, SpaceX stock was trading at just $123.99. This represents a decline of 45% from its post-listing high, and a drop of 17% from its first-day opening price. Is now a good time to buy the dip in SpaceX stock, or should retail investors who have avoided the volatility so far keep sitting on their hands?
Image source: Getty Images.
What has driven SpaceX's volatility? The initial surge in SpaceX stock reflected powerful, narrative-driven momentum. Investors bought into the company's multipronged vision: expanding the Starlink satellite constellation for global broadband, advancing reusable rocket technology, and exploring ambitious artificial intelligence (AI) applications such as orbital data centers. Elon Musk's personal brand certainly added to the buzz around the stock, drawing both retail and institutional buyers into what felt like a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Over the last few weeks, the enthusiasm around SpaceX has met countervailing forces. Questions are rising about the company's valuation relative to its fairly modest revenue base and its still-negative earnings profile. Skeptics also note the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX's various businesses and the long timelines that would be required to turn its ambitious plans into businesses capable of delivering consistent revenues and profits.
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Analyzing other notable IPOs in recent history History offers useful context through other high-profile technology IPOs. Snowflake went public in September 2020 at roughly $250 per share. One year later, the stock had climbed by more than 30% amid strong demand for cloud data platforms. Yet the stock later experienced significant volatility and meaningful drawdowns as growth expectations for the company moderated.
Palantir Technologies listed around the same time as Snowflake. That stock also witnessed meaningful appreciation during its first year as investors embraced the potential of the company's data analytics platforms, Foundry and Gotham. Despite periodic swings tied to contract timing and broader market sentiment around its government-heavy operation, Palantir's long-term trajectory has been positive overall.
A more recent example paints a much different picture, however. After Figma's 2025 IPO, the stock climbed to $120 right off the bat. Within nine months, Figma stock had fallen by roughly 79% from its peak levels as competition from AI-native design tools intensified and questions about its profitability surfaced.
These case studies share a common pattern: Large and heavily hyped IPOs often deliver strong initial pops driven by a compelling narrative and a scarcity of available shares. But those are followed by periods of digestion or corrections, particularly after lockup periods expire, the float increases, and execution metrics come into focus.
Where will SpaceX stock trade one year from now? Projecting a stock's trajectory carries enormous uncertainty. Even among the small sample of tech IPOs referenced here, the outcomes varied widely. With that said, I think the early evidence and broader historical tendencies suggest there could be continued pressure on SpaceX shares over the next year.
The post-IPO enthusiasm that initially lifted the stock appears to have faded as investors weigh the company's execution risks amid high expectations, and acknowledge the reality that transformative technologies take time to mature.
Drawing from patterns observed in the IPOs above, I think a reasonable base case sees SpaceX trading near or modestly below its current price by next June, in a range between $110 and $125. The bottom of that range would represent an 11% decline from Friday's closing price. Under these scenarios, a $5,000 investment made now could be worth either about the same as it is today down to as low as roughly $4,400 by mid-2027.
While stronger execution could support a more bullish outcome, the current trajectory of waning excitement suggests that any recovery that's coming may take longer to arrive. But of course, this forecast offers just one plausible path among many.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), or SpaceX for short, has been an absolute roller coaster since going public roughly a month ago. Despite the stock rocketing to $225 and then dropping back down to roughly $125, some Wall Street analysts still see big things ahead. Adam Jonas, an analyst overseeing Morgan Stanley's coverage of SpaceX, set his base case for the stock at $300 per share.
That target signals massive upside, more than double the stock's current share price. But such an ambitious price target depends on SpaceX becoming far more than a space stock. It's a bet on unprecedented vertical integration in arguably the world's most significant economic opportunity since the industrial revolution: artificial intelligence (AI).
SpaceX's upside lies in AI more than in space Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX to grow at a breathtaking pace for the foreseeable future. The research assumes that SpaceX's revenue will grow from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030 and to $3.3 trillion by 2040. The bulk of that comes from artificial intelligence, where Morgan Stanley is counting on SpaceX building out orbital infrastructure for global connectivity and AI.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Elon Musk agrees. The company's S-1 filing pegged its total addressable market at approximately $28.5 trillion, with all but $2 trillion of that tied to AI. SpaceX intends to unleash a massive constellation of AI satellites called Starmind, essentially building data centers in orbit. The company hopes to launch its first AI satellites on Starship sometime next year.
Looking at the big picture, rockets are essentially a means to build out SpaceX's AI empire in orbit.
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That upside comes with immense risk Space is truly the next frontier, especially for AI. Data centers have become very controversial in the United States, where citizens have begun pushing back hard. New York recently became the first state to impose a moratorium on new hyperscale data center builds. SpaceX successfully establishing AI infrastructure in space would be a true game changer, as no company currently seems close to replicating that model.
Elon Musk in the White House Oval Office. Image source: The White House.
At the same time, these goals are as risky as they are ambitious. That's even reflected in Morgan Stanley's research, where the bull case is as high as $600 and the bear case as low as $75. The reality is that right now, the stock's valuation reflects a lot of success that hasn't happened yet. SpaceX is trading at about 94 times last year's revenue, even after its recent slide to a $1.7 trillion market cap.
SpaceX will need to live up to Morgan Stanley's growth projections for the stock to sustain its valuation, let alone double in value. As a result, SpaceX will likely remain very volatile as time reveals where the company lands in this wide range of possibilities.
One of the more recent arrivals to our stock market, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), better known as SpaceX, has never published a quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company.
That's going to change soon. While the market doesn't yet have a firm date for when the figures for its second quarter ending June 30 might be released, it's reasonable to expect a report in early August. So there's time to consider if it's worth spending $1,000 on the company's stock. I wouldn't be willing, and here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
Moving in the darkness One of the primary reasons is that SpaceX remains something of a mystery.
Its name is somewhat misleading, since most of its operations aren't directly involved in space exploration. It has a thriving satellite business with Starlink, a high-capex artificial intelligence (AI) unit that builds data centers and manages the X (formerly Twitter) social media platform, as well as a space business.
While the company intends for all these operations to complement each other, SpaceX is at present more of a jumble of activities that don't necessarily synthesize. That, plus the fact that the company's pre-IPO filings don't provide much detail about its finances, makes the second quarter hard to estimate.
This is surely why analyst projections are all over the place. There are many pundits already tracking SpaceX stock; 25 of them are included in the data compiled by Yahoo! Finance, for example. But, unusually for analysts, their estimates don't sit within a relatively narrow range. Their figures for the quarter's revenue have a range of nearly $3 billion -- from $5.3 billion to $8.1 billion.
Those prognosticators seem to agree that the historically loss-making SpaceX will also land in the red in the second quarter. The big question is by how much -- the current net loss estimates range from $0.12 to $0.42.
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Stuck on the launchpad Another element keeping me away from SpaceX is that it's still experiencing setbacks in its headline activity.
Late Thursday afternoon, the company unexpectedly aborted the latest launch of its Starship rocket, after some of its engines apparently failed to start. Uncomfortably, this is the heavy rocket that's supposed to be the launch vehicle helping power the company to astronomical success and glory.
Mission aborts happen, of course, but there's an awful lot of capital betting on that not to occur -- at least, not often -- at SpaceX.
Understandably, the stock fell after the sudden cancellation (SpaceX stock fell 5% in Friday trading). With that decline, $1,000 would buy eight shares of SpaceX.
That's not a huge commitment in the grand scheme of things, but even given that, I'd hold off on investing in this stock. The second quarter is sure to feature plenty of red ink, and the company still has at least one major operational kink to work out. I feel that money has better potential for liftoff in other stocks.
SpaceX (SPCX 5.43%) can't seem to catch a break. On Thursday, the company aborted the second launch attempt of its upgraded Starship rocket moments after ignition, hours after the stock had slid 3% to about $131 -- an all-time low for its brief public life, and below the $135 price at which it went public in June, in an initial public offering (IPO) that raised $85.7 billion.
But a scrubbed launch is a passing headline. The heavier weight on the stock is a calendar item. SpaceX's IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did.
Here's how the supply wave works, and what it means for anyone eyeing the beaten-down stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
A supply wave, on a schedule SpaceX's June 12 IPO put less than 5% of the company's roughly 13.2 billion shares into public hands. Nearly everything else is locked up, for now.
The earnings-linked release could come first. Under the lockup terms in SpaceX's IPO prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares become sellable on the second full trading day after the company's first earnings report as a public company (a report the company hasn't formally scheduled yet). That single tranche alone is bigger than the entire IPO, and it is worth more than $115 billion at the current share price.
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Another 455.8 million shares would be released alongside them if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price, or $175.50, on five of the 10 trading days running into the report. At about $131 as of this writing, that trigger is nowhere in sight.
And the calendar keeps going. Smaller slices, each about 7% of the shares subject to the standard lockup, unlock roughly every two to three weeks from late August through late October. Another 28% becomes sellable after the company's third-quarter report, and the standard lockup winds down entirely in early December. Elon Musk's own shares stay locked until next June.
What the supply wave means for buyers Lockup expirations matter most when a stock is already weak, because they add supply exactly when demand is shaky. SpaceX fits the description. Shares have fallen about 42% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64.
And the fundamentals give potential sellers reasons. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout. It generated $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025, with segment operating income more than doubling year over year, and it added $3.3 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2026. But the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025, and it posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone, and the space segment itself lost money in both periods, too.
Even at its lows, meanwhile, SpaceX carries a market value of about $1.7 trillion. That is nearly 90 times the revenue the business generated over the past 12 months, for a company losing billions of dollars a year.
There's also precedent for lockup pain. Meta Platforms, back when it was known as Facebook, saw its first post-IPO lockup expire in August 2012, freeing about 271 million shares. The stock fell more than 6% that day to what was then an all-time low, roughly half its IPO price. (Facebook, it's worth remembering, turned out fine.)
Of course, there's a counterargument: everyone can see this coming. The lockup schedule has been public since the prospectus, and some of the stock's roughly 35% slide over the past month likely reflects investors selling ahead of the supply. Insiders don't have to sell, either. And with shares at an all-time low, some may prefer to wait.
Still, the setup argues for patience. That first release will show where demand for SpaceX shares actually meets supply, and the tranches that follow will keep testing it into December. If the stock absorbs that first wave without breaking to new lows, that itself could be evidence the selling pressure is already priced in. Investors who believe in the long-term story of Starship, Starlink, and Musk's AI ambitions will get plenty of information over the next several months -- and, quite possibly, plenty of chances to buy.
I wouldn't buy the stock in front of that wave. Personally, I'm content to let the lockups play out before I'd even consider it. The stock's valuation simply looks too expensive anyway, in my opinion.
SpaceX employees gather to watch Booster 20 as it rolls out of the SpaceX production facility for the launch pad as preparations continue for the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
July 19 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab is targeting Thursday, July 23, for another attempt to launch its Starship rocket, the company said in a statement on Sunday.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X later on Sunday that the next Starship launch would occur on Friday, contradicting the earlier statement from his company. He did not say whether the original Thursday date was wrong.
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On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its 13th flight test from Texas, which erased about $100 billion from the company's market value.
SpaceX said it has modified Starship's propulsion system to address the engine issue experienced on the previous flight.
A launch delay for the $15 billion rocket development program better known for dramatic engineering feats and explosive testing failures is not uncommon.
On Friday, SpaceX said it would attempt the launch on July 20.
The company has launched 12 Starship test flights since 2023.
On its 13th flight test, Starship will carry 20 Starlink satellites to demonstrate its satellite-dispensing system and the Starlink network's laser communication links, but those satellites will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory and burn up in Earth's atmosphere soon after deployment.
In its prospectus, SpaceX said that it aims to launch the first Starlink satellites to orbit on Starship by year's end, followed by routine launches.
Reporting by Gursimran Kaur in Bengaluru; Editing by Matthew Lewis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
If you like to keep up with famous investors, you probably know Cathie Wood, the founder, CEO, and chief investment officer of Ark Invest, known for investing in companies with disruptive and innovative technologies. Many investors pay attention when she makes big buys or sales, and she recently raised a lot of eyebrows when she bought $51 million worth of Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%).
The reason many were surprised is that Space Exploration Technologies, commonly known as SpaceX, is arguably overpriced.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why would Cathie Wood invest in SpaceX? Cathie Wood is only human, so maybe she's investing in SpaceX due to FOMO -- the fear of missing out. (That's why many of us make certain investments, sadly.) Her company has actually been investing in SpaceX for a long time, though -- since before it even went public last month.
Another reason could be the company's leadership in space launches and satellite communications. Or maybe Wood and her team are excited about SpaceX's ventures into other realms, such as artificial intelligence compute satellites.
Wood may also think that the stock has now fallen so much that it's unlikely to fall much more.
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Why you might not want to invest in SpaceX The biggest knock against SpaceX's stock, in my opinion, is its valuation. What's its price-to-earnings ratio? Well, it doesn't have one yet, since it hasn't delivered earnings. In such cases, one might look instead at the price-to-sales ratio. It was 65.5 as of mid-July. In case you don't know, that's quite steep. Consider that Apple's (AAPL +0.26%) price-to-sales ratio was recently 11, while Amazon's (AMZN 0.91%) was 3.7. And those companies have earnings!
Plenty of people have been investing in SpaceX, so they are probably reasoning to themselves that the company will eventually grow into its valuation. It certainly could. But that could take years -- in which you might have been invested in another stock. And SpaceX is priced for perfection. Once it shows signs of trouble, investors might flee, sending shares down. In fact, it recently postponed its Starship test flight due to engine issues, and the stock sank more than 5%.
If you like investing with a margin of safety, look elsewhere. If you can stomach a lot of risk and really like what you see in SpaceX, consider investing modestly, perhaps starting with a small position and waiting for a better price before investing more. Indeed, the stock has fallen since its IPO pop and was recently trading below its IPO price. (Specifically, it closed at $124 on July 17, 8% below the IPO price of $135 and 45% below its high of $225.)
Cathie Wood may not expect the stock to keep falling, but I can certainly see it doing so in the near term. After all, despite that 45% drop, the company was recently valued at a whopping $1.6 trillion -- without even having earnings.
Meanwhile, the company's first quarterly earnings report is expected to be released around early August. Whatever it shows might send the stock up or down sharply, so keep that in mind. Remember, too, that there are plenty of other promising tech stocks out there.
SpaceX (SPCX 5.43%), which went public in the biggest IPO in history on June 12, joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. That inclusion, driven by Nasdaq's (NDAQ 2.75%) fast-track rules for mega-IPOs, forced its index-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to buy the stock.
Yet SpaceX's stock has actually declined 17% since its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, and it's dropped below its IPO price of $135 per share. Let's see why SpaceX's addition to the index failed to drive its stock higher, and if its post-IPO pullback represents a buying opportunity.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why did SpaceX's stock pull back? SpaceX's stock reached a record intraday high of $225.64 per share on June 16 and closed at its all-time high of $211.39 on the same day. At the time, many investors were still dazzled by its historic IPO and consumed by a fear of missing out (FOMO).
But at its peak, SpaceX's market cap hit $2.66 trillion, or 142 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Today, its market cap still hovers at $1.63 trillion, or 87 times last year's revenue.
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Those price-to-sales ratios seem too high for a company that grew its revenue by 33% in 2025. It's also unprofitable, since losses in its space and AI segments (the latter expanded by its hasty acquisition of xAI before its IPO) are erasing Starlink's profits. It will also continue to rely heavily on debt offerings and dilutive acquisitions (like its recent all-stock takeover of the AI coding start-up Cursor) to expand its money-losing AI business.
SpaceX will unlock 20% of its shares held by its employees and early pre-IPO holders on the second trading day after its second-quarter earnings report in late July or early August. If its stock closed at or above $175.50 for at least five of the ten consecutive days before that earnings release, it will unlock another 10%. All of those red flags drove many investors to retreat from SpaceX's stock after its explosive debut.
Does that pullback represent a buying opportunity? Elon Musk claims SpaceX could generate more than $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, as it launches Starship (its largest rocket ever), expands Starlink's network, sends more data centers into orbit, and expands its AI infrastructure and services segment. From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its revenue to grow at a 97% CAGR from $18.5 billion to $141.6 billion.
If you expect SpaceX to achieve that incredible acceleration, then its stock might be worth accumulating as it languishes below its IPO price. But if you think those estimates are too bullish (as they often are), then it might be prudent to wait for lower prices and more realistic long-term estimates.
When SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX went public just over a month ago, on June 12, it did so as the most hotly anticipated listing in years, and unmistakably as a space company. Rockets, satellites, and Mars ambitions were the story. But barely a month into its life on the public markets, a different narrative is taking hold on Wall Street, and it has far more to do with artificial intelligence (AI) than with space travel.
SpaceX Today
$123.99 -7.12 (-5.43%)
As of 07/17/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$122.12▼
$225.64Price Target$234.78
The timing is interesting because the stock itself has had a rough start. After hitting a post-IPO high in the sessions following its IPO, SpaceX shares have slumped around 40% and are now trading below the $135 price at which they listed.
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For a company that generated so much excitement coming to market, dipping below the IPO price inside the first few weeks isn’t a great look. Yet beneath that disappointing price action, the emerging investment case may be more compelling than the chart suggests.
Why the AI Narrative Is Taking OverThe core of the argument is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet network. On the surface, it's a connectivity business, beaming broadband down to homes, vehicles, and remote corners of the planet. But increasingly, investors are recognizing that a global, low-latency connectivity network is exactly the kind of infrastructure the AI era is going to depend on.
As AI systems become more embedded in everyday devices, vehicles, and industrial applications, the need for reliable connectivity to move data back and forth grows enormously. Starlink is one of the very few networks capable of providing that coverage at scale.
The bulls argue that this could make SpaceX something like an AI infrastructure landlord, with its network and vertical integration allowing it to control data movement and potentially support entirely new compute products over time.
This is a view that Wedbush's Dan Ives has been vocal about for some time. He argues that SpaceX should be seen as much more of a data and AI play than a traditional space company, pointing to the strategic value of its network and the growing data demands flowing through it. If that framing gains wider acceptance, it fundamentally changes the lens through which the company is valued to the upside.
The Speculative Upside, and the Very Real RisksBeyond connectivity, there's an even more ambitious element to the thesis. There has been growing discussion around the potential for data centers in space, using solar power and natural cooling to run compute-intensive AI workloads outside the constraints of terrestrial infrastructure.
Tied to this is the Terafab semiconductor project, which Oppenheimer recently described as “critical” to SpaceX's future valuation, while also cautioning that it remains speculative and carries real execution risk.
That tension sits at the heart of the debate. The upside case is enormous, but it rests on ambitious projects that are far from proven, and the company is burning through significant cash to pursue them. The bears make a fair point that the current valuation already implies extraordinary growth, with no guarantee that the vast AI opportunity translates cleanly into durable, high-margin profits.
What the Analysts Are SayingSpaceX Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$234.78
89.35% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 37 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$123.99High Forecast$800.00Average Forecast$234.78Low Forecast$115.00SpaceX Stock Forecast Details
Despite that rough start, the early analyst coverage suggests the bulls currently outnumber the bears. While Piper Sandler did initiate coverage this week with a cautious Neutral rating, that was a rare outlier versus the likes of Evercore, which gave the stock a Buy rating, one of many in a run of recent bullish analyst calls.
The price targets of some of these recent updates are also hard to ignore, with many clustered around $250, which, from the current level near $130, implies close to 100% upside. Targets like that suggest at least some analysts believe the recent weakness reflects a serious dislocation between the share price and the company's longer-term potential. Especially if the AI infrastructure narrative takes hold, then the current price could look like an entry point in hindsight.
A High-Stakes First Report AwaitsAll of this means SpaceX's first public earnings report, due on Aug. 6, is a pivotal moment. As a newly listed company with no track record of reporting to public markets, this first look under the hood will carry enormous weight in shaping how investors think about the story.
The key will be any commentary that supports the AI infrastructure framing, particularly around Starlink's growth and how management chooses to position the business. Lean into the AI narrative convincingly, and the bulls calling for a doubling of the stock will have real ammunition.
Fall back on a more pie-in-the-sky space story, and that 40% sell-off may prove less an entry point and more a warning. Either way, Aug. 6 should be firmly circled on every investor's calendar.
Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.
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While investors spent the week focused on a brutal sell-off in chip stocks, rocket maker and satellite internet company SpaceX (SPCX 5.41%) quietly kept falling. Shares slid 5.4% on Friday to close at $123.99. That marked a sixth straight daily decline, an all-time closing low for the stock's brief public life, and a level below the $135 price from its June initial public offering (IPO).
The slide has been more of a drip than a crash, which may be why many investors haven't registered it. But the cumulative damage is significant.
Shares peaked at $225.64 shortly after their debut, so the stock has lost about 45% of its value in roughly a month.
So is this newly cheaper SpaceX finally worth buying? I don't think so.
Elon Musk at the White House. Image source: The White House.
Why the stock keeps sliding There hasn't been a single blow. Instead, several pressures have stacked up.
In late June, SpaceX priced $25 billion of senior notes in its first bond offering as a public company. The notes come due between 2031 and 2056, at interest rates running from 5.35% to 6.65%. Management said the proceeds would repay the borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full (debt largely tied to folding Elon Musk's xAI and X into SpaceX ahead of the IPO), with anything left over going to general corporate purposes (likely including more AI infrastructure). The offering was a reminder of just how expensive the company's artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions will be.
Then came this week's AI reckoning. Semiconductor stocks sold off hard as investors questioned whether the boom in AI infrastructure spending can persist. That reassessment has been a headwind for anything priced on AI ambitions, and SpaceX, which is now part rocket maker, part satellite internet provider, and part AI company, qualifies.
Finally, on Thursday, the company aborted a Starship test flight moments before launch.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," Musk wrote on X.
A scrubbed launch is a routine setback. But it capped off a rough week.
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Cheaper isn't the same as cheap What matters more is what investors actually get at $124. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, and it lost $4.9 billion for the year.
Starlink, the company's satellite internet service, is the engine. The segment produced $11.4 billion of revenue in 2025, or 61% of the company total. And its subscriber base keeps climbing, compounding from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 8.9 million at the end of 2025 to 10.3 million by the end of March. That is exceptional growth.
However, the average Starlink customer is paying less over time. Monthly revenue per user has stepped down from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026. In other words, Starlink's growth is coming from adding users, not from charging them more. That's fine for now, but it could become a problem if subscriber growth ever slows.
The AI business is the expensive part. That segment, built around xAI, generated just $3.2 billion of revenue in 2025. It's also behind most of the new debt -- the June bond sale retires borrowings SpaceX took on to bring xAI in-house.
Now for the valuation. At $124 per share, SpaceX still commands a market value of about $1.6 trillion. That works out to more than 80 times the company's trailing sales, for a business losing billions of dollars a year. For perspective, a multiple of 20 is often considered generous for a fast-growing company when it's based on earnings -- not sales.
Put another way, even with the stock down about 45%, the market is still pricing in a future in which Starlink keeps compounding, Starship works, and the AI bet pays off in a big way -- all at once.
Of course, SpaceX owns assets nobody else has: the world's dominant rocket program and a satellite internet business without a true peer.
And investors will learn a lot soon. The company's first quarterly report since going public is coming, and insider lockup expirations begin rolling off in August.
But owning singular assets doesn't automatically make a stock worth more than 80 times sales. At $124, shares are arguably cheaper than they've ever been -- and still not cheap.
In a move that could help validate SpaceX’s (SPCX 5.43%) enormous investment in artificial intelligence (AI), the company is reportedly discussing a multi-billion-dollar computing contract with the Department of Defense (DOD), as originally reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The terms of the agreement, while not yet confirmed by the Pentagon or SpaceX, would allow the Defense Department to use SpaceX’s data centers to run AI models. This could follow similar deals SpaceX has inked with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Anthropic, and place it among an exclusive group of cloud-computing providers that are supporting the Pentagon’s AI operations.
Although the deal remains tentative and, in The Journal’s words, “could fall apart,” the development may reveal something important for SpaceX investors. Let’s take a closer look.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Why investors should pay close attention to this deal To really understand the significance of this deal, we should step back and remember how closely SpaceX’s future is now tied to artificial intelligence.
Until Feb. 2, 2026, SpaceX was best known for launching rockets and managing its satellite-based internet service, Starlink. But in early February, SpaceX acquired xAI, forming a massive entity that’s now valued at about $1.6 trillion.
The acquisition not only brought two of Elon Musk’s businesses under the same roof but also provided xAI with a larger capital base to help it scale faster. The idea is that eventually, the AI business will become SpaceX’s major growth engine, even if it’s burning cash right now. Indeed, in SpaceX’s pre-IPO roadside show, the company claimed AI will unlock a $26.5 trillion market opportunity, whereas the market opportunity for the other two businesses is about $2 trillion.
Here’s the kicker, however: xAI generated an operating loss of about $6.4 billion in 2025. Although the rest of SpaceX’s operations helped offset some of that damage, the company still posted a net loss of about $4.9 billion for the year.
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This is where the potential deal with the Pentagon comes in. If the Pentagon becomes a multi-billion-dollar customer, SpaceX’s AI segment could start carrying some of the financial load investors expect it to shoulder. At the very least, it could help offset this segment’s heavy losses, bringing the space company closer to profitability.
And this isn’t just any old customer, either. This is the DOD, a government agency. Once SpaceX is approved to handle its workloads, which, mind you, could contain sensitive or classified information, walking away from it won’t be easy, nor will it be cheap. Indeed, the high switching costs alone could turn this contract into a pretty durable, long-term revenue stream -- one that could increase in value if the agency decides to purchase more computing power over time.
Does the deal with the Pentagon make SpaceX a screaming buy right now? I wouldn’t call SpaceX a screaming buy right now, nor even a murmuring one. And it has everything to do with SpaceX’s valuation right now.
The stock has been trading at a premium since its mid-June market debut. It currently trades more than 40% below its all-time high; even so, SpaceX trades at more than 80 times sales.
At the end of the day, SpaceX investors are being asked to believe in many things that seem outlandish at first glance. Lunar settlements, missions to Mars, orbital data centers. Some of these ambitions may eventually materialize; others could remain fantasies. For now, I would continue watching SpaceX from the sidelines, at least until its valuation comes back down to earth.
Few companies have grabbed the attention of investors this year like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%), better known as SpaceX. The company's public debut last month briefly made CEO Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.
The company is setting out to accomplish things no other company has even considered before it, just as it did with reusable rockets, and the long-term potential could be huge. Its registration statement for the initial public offering (IPO) said it has an overall estimated total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
Investing in SpaceX requires a long-term mindset. And few investors are better known for the long-term mindset than Warren Buffett. He can provide some excellent insights for investors considering SpaceX for their portfolio. Here are three must-read quotes.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Buying into IPOs SpaceX had the biggest IPO in history last month, raising over $85 billion once the underwriters exercised their option to buy additional shares. But the fact that the company had no issues raising that much capital from the market speaks to an undeniable truth.
It's why Buffett says he's never bought any IPO: "The idea of saying the best place in the world I could put my money is something where all the selling incentives are there, commissions are higher, the animal spirits are rising, that that's going to be better than 1,000 other things I could buy where there is no similar selling enthusiasm ... just doesn't make any sense."
IPOs are a seller's market. The company holds all the cards; underwriters are incentivized to pump the stock. The odds of making a good purchase are against you.
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Most IPOs experience a first-day pop in price, but the long-term results aren't usually any better than the overall market. Since 1980, the average IPO has slightly underperformed the market average over the three years following its debut if you could buy the shares at the offer price. That's despite underwriters intentionally underpricing IPOs to drive demand for the stock and a good first-day result.
With SpaceX trading around its IPO price, investors should still exercise some caution.
A business with a future that's hard to predict SpaceX's future depends on many variables. A lot has to go right for it to achieve the potential the market is already pricing into the stock.
It has to successfully launch and scale up its fully reusable Starship heavy-lift spacecraft. It has to use that to lower the cost of putting new satellites into orbit to scale up its Starlink service, and it has to sell that service to consumers worldwide. It has to prove the viability and cost competitiveness of orbital data centers. And it has to out-innovate leading artificial intelligence (AI) labs with its own AI model.
Buffett's take on this subject: "Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic-diving methods: Degree-of-difficulty doesn't count. If you are right about a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting and complex variables."
I think it's fair to say Buffett would put SpaceX into the "too hard" pile. He wouldn't be able to determine a fair value for the business because there are too many variables in a highly dynamic market. There are many stocks in the market that are far easier to understand than SpaceX. If you can't wrap your brain around its fundamentals and how it generates significant returns on its capital over the long run, it's worth exploring other options first.
Speculating is bad for your investment returns Buffett produced phenomenal results for investors by buying companies when he had a high degree of confidence he was buying the stock at or below its intrinsic value. His top holdings have durable competitive advantages that all but guarantee they can produce above-average earnings growth in the long run. Ultimately, that's reflected in the stock price.
Or as he put it succinctly, "I would rather be certain of a good result than hopeful of a great one."
SpaceX holds a lot of promise. But space-launch services are still a relatively nascent industry. The potential for its Starlink to disrupt broadband and mobile internet services is reliant on significant capital and scaling.
And its AI business, which accounts for the bulk of its estimated total addressable market, is still in the very early stages. Not to mention that things like Mars colonization are capital-intensive undertakings over decades with no clear payoff.
Yes, if SpaceX successfully accomplishes all it has set out to achieve, it could be the most valuable business in the world by a wide margin. But there's such a high degree of uncertainty about its future right now that it's hard to justify its current valuation. There are many other investments in today's market that you can buy with a high degree of certainty that they will produce good results.
