Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), or SpaceX, continues to make its mark on the markets as one of the most highly traded stocks. There are a lot of heated opinions about whether it makes sense to buy it today, and the company keeps announcing new deals that change the equation.
This week, it announced that it would issue $25 billion in bonds, less than two weeks after its record-shattering initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. Bloomberg reported that there were $90 billion in debt orders. Is that a vote of confidence in the young stock or a massive warning?
What's SpaceX doing with all of this money? The SpaceX IPO was the biggest ever, by far. It set out to raise $75 billion, but with the extra shares it offers underwriters in the event of high demand, it ended up raising $85.7 billion.
On top of that, it's issuing $25 billion in debt, which means it raised $111 billion in less than two weeks. And both of these issues were oversubscribed. Bloomberg had reported that the IPO was oversubscribed by more than four times, which means that there was incredible demand for it, and now it had orders for more than three times the amount of its bond issuance.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company already made a big move with some of the IPO proceeds, announcing that it would acquire coding company Cursor last week for $60 billion. Although, as its name implies, SpaceX has several space-related segments, its largest opportunity is in artificial intelligence. SpaceX merged with Elon Musk's xAI early this year, and even though it's a money-losing business right now, Musk and company are trying to build it into a formidable AI player.
The Cursor acquisition, in addition to adding powerful new capabilities to xAI, is also growing at a fast pace, which adds some growth juice to the company's total. SpaceX revenue increased only 16% year over year in the first quarter, hardly what you'd call a high-growth stock.
As for the bond money, management had already apprised investors that it planned to issue debt to cover a $20 billion bridge loan that becomes due in September 2027, with the remainder going to general corporate uses.
Why are investors so excited about SpaceX? SpaceX fans are willing to fund the company's endeavors because they think that SpaceX is developing important technology for the future. They're big believers in Musk and his plans, and those plans need funds if they're going to get off the ground (literally) and change the world.
Even though some of Musk's ideas sound out of this world, he has been involved in several transformative companies, including PayPal Holdings and Tesla, both of which were pioneers in what are now mundane, mainstream industries. SpaceX's Starlink, for example, uses satellite technology to bring broadband internet to areas around the globe that aren't served by land-based services. Starlink is growing and profitable, and investors envision Musk pulling off even more revolutions in space travel and living.
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SpaceX's ability to raise so much money is certainly a good sign for the company. It can tap into this fan base to achieve its goals, and if it runs short on money, it has willing partners.
But it may be a warning for shareholders. Eventually, the money might run out, and that could be before SpaceX puts practical products on the table and turns a profit.
The SpaceX sheen may already be wearing off, as the stock is down 17% this week, as of this writing.
Personally, I'd be quite wary of SpaceX's continued fundraising and spending until there's higher growth and a practical path to profitability.
SpaceX’s new bonds are flashing a warning sign, as investors pump the brakes on AI frenzy
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HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseMarket ExtraMarket ExtraElon Musk’s company made a splash earlier this week with a $25 billion bond deal, less than two weeks after it raised tens of billions of dollars in cashJune 26, 2026, 4:42 p.m. ET
SpaceX made a splash earlier this week with a $25 billion bond deal, less than two weeks after it raised tens of billions of dollars in cash through its record initial public offering.
Yet those bonds are trading considerably weaker only a few days after they were issued, signaling increased scrutiny of the artificial-intelligence spending blitz. At the same time, semiconductor shares and other technology stocks showed weakness on Friday.
About the Author
William Gavin is a tech reporter for MarketWatch. He is based in New York.
Joy Wiltermuth is assistant managing editor, markets. She is based in New York.
Two weeks after the largest IPO in history priced, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) opened at $1.8 trillion valuation and has drifted to roughly $2 trillion, which Chad Anderson, managing partner at Space Capital and a decade-long SpaceX backer, calls cheap.
Speaking on CNBC on June 26, Anderson argued the space economy has been structurally underpriced for years and that SpaceX’s listing finally hands the market a real-money comp. “The space economy has been underpriced, and now we have a liquid benchmark to benchmark this category against,” Anderson said.
For the five public space names below, that benchmark matters. They have traded on faith, government contracts, and YouTube launch streams. Now they trade against a $2 trillion incumbent whose filings tell the rest of the orbit what the prize looks like.
Anderson’s pitch on why $2 trillion is the floor Anderson’s framing is straightforward. “The opportunity in space and the space economy overall is long term. This is we are in the midst of a massive infrastructure build out cycle,” he said, pointing to hundreds of billions of legacy systems being replaced and an entirely new layer of AI being built out on top.
His fund has had six portfolio companies go public, unusual for a sector specialist, and he expects more. Whether $2 trillion is the floor or ceiling depends on whether Starlink, Starshield, and the AI compute deals leaked all spring actually scale.
What the benchmark does to the small caps Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) carries a market cap near $55.4 billion after a brutal stretch. It is down 40% over the past month yet up 136% over the past year.
Moreover, Q1 revenue of $200.35 million grew year over year with a record backlog. The backlog includes the $816 million SDA Tranche 3 award.
In addition, CEO Peter Beck called the quarter “another exceptional quarter with record financial performance of more than $200 million in revenue.” Analyst consensus sits well above the current $106.92.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) is up 367% on a one-year basis.
Revenue grew 42% year over year in Q1 with backlog of $906 million. CEO Will Marshall framed the run as built on 99% recurring ACV. These are real, contracted revenues.
The orbital infrastructure layer Anderson is really talking about Anderson pointed to orbital infrastructure powering terrestrial markets, which is the direct-to-device, lunar logistics, and on-orbit servicing layer. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is the cleanest pure play, with a market cap around $19.6 billion.
Additionally, it has nearly 60 MNO partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, and a reaffirmed FY26 revenue range of $150 million to $200 million. Q1 revenue of $14.74 million missed the $36.58 million consensus, and shares are down year to date after a 9.65% one-month plunge.
It sits on a $1.06 billion backlog, guides FY26 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion, and holds a $6.2 billion ceiling Andromeda IDIQ with the Space Force.
Per CEO Steve Altemus, next phase of space is defined by “who can build the infrastructure, connect it reliably, and operate it at scale.”
Furthermore, there’s Redwire (NYSE:RDW).
It is the smallest, with a market cap of $2.15 billion. The company has exposure to the same Andromeda contract vehicle. Anderson also flagged Lunar Outpost’s recent $220 million NASA lunar terrain vehicle award.
What to watch from here The combined public market caps of these five names sit well under SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation. This is against a SpaceX comp roughly 20 times larger.
Anderson’s argument boils down to a rerating thesis. The next move depends on whether public investors decide orbital infrastructure deserves software multiples or whether the past month’s drawdowns mean the rerating already overshot. Watch backlog conversion, Neutron’s debut, and AST’s BlueBird cadence into the back half of 2026.
Shares of SpaceX SPCX rose 3% on Friday as investors prepared for the company's addition to the Russell 1000 Index.
The move is expected to drive demand from passive investment funds and broaden the stock's presence across major benchmarks.
The gains came after a difficult stretch for the newly public company.
The stock surged to $225 after opening above its issue price of $135.
It has, however, lost most of the gains and was trading above $158 on Friday, just 5% above its listing price of $150.
The stock has never closed below its IPO opening price and has surrendered nearly all of the gains generated by its record-breaking market debut.
SpaceX is set to join the Russell 1000 following Friday's closing bell as part of FTSE Russell's latest rebalancing.
The inclusion was made possible after FTSE Russell relaxed its rules in May to allow certain large newly public companies to gain accelerated entry into its indexes.
The addition could create buying demand because passive index funds that track the Russell 1000 must purchase shares to reflect the benchmark's composition.
SpaceX will enter the Russell 1000 with a classification of 90.4% growth and 9.6% value.
The company's weighting and classification will be reviewed again during the next index reshuffle in December.
The Russell indexes are not the only benchmarks adding SpaceX. The Center for Securities Research already included the company in its US Total Market Index earlier this week.
SpaceX also becomes eligible for inclusion in MSCI indexes on Friday and is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 6 after Nasdaq recently approved rules allowing the stock's accelerated entry.
However, SpaceX will not become eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 until at least June 2027.
Despite the upcoming additions, analysts say SpaceX's immediate impact on passive investment portfolios may be limited by its relatively small public float.
The company sold less than 5% of its shares during its initial public offering, leaving only a limited number of shares available for public trading.
Many indexes use float-adjusted market capitalization when determining weightings.
As a result, SpaceX currently accounts for only 0.15% of the CRSP US Total Market Index, making it the benchmark's 106th-largest holding by weight.
Morningstar analyst Zachary Evens described the IPO float as a "puny" amount that limits the stock's near-term representation in index funds.
As of June 18, SpaceX's float-adjusted market capitalization stood at $109.2 billion.
The company's public float is expected to increase gradually as lock-up periods expire and insiders gain the ability to sell shares.
However, analysts do not expect a sudden flood of stock into the market.
Nikolai Roussanov, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania, said, "As the free float increases with more insider sales, there's going to also be increased demand from the index funds. And those two may [offset] each other. It's not exactly clear."
Evens estimates that SpaceX's float ratio is unlikely to exceed 30% after 180 days and may remain below 50% even after additional insider shares unlock after 366 days.
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder said, "Your average insider is more faithful to the company than a standard insider would be," noting that Musk has "this aura around him" that has captivated both employees and investors of Tesla and SpaceX.
"I think a lot of people are going to hold on because they believe in the long-term story of the company," he added.
Meanwhile, the stock has struggled in recent sessions, falling 10% over the last five trading days as investors reassessed lofty valuations and concerns emerged that enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence spending may be cooling.
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its own initial public offering following SpaceX's recent stock struggles.
Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) are trading lower again on Friday morning, with the stock changing hands at $152. That extends a rough stretch in which SpaceX stock has fallen 17% over the past week.
The slide ran from $185 on June 18 down to $153 at the June 25 close. With a market capitalization still near $1.15 trillion, the question dominating trader chat rooms is what it would take to drag the stock back toward its 52-week high of $225.64.
The setup is unusual. Sentiment indicators have softened, yet underlying narratives around defense, connectivity, and artificial intelligence remain intact.
What’s Weighing on SpaceX Stock The proximate trigger has been pressure on SpaceX’s inaugural $25 billion bond offering, which has weakened in the secondary market. According to a Bloomberg report, the bonds have generated paper losses of roughly $305 million relative to Treasuries, raising near-term financing concerns.
Broader profit-taking across U.S. tech has compounded the move. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX closed at 18.89 on June 25, up 15% on the week, signaling elevated uncertainty as high-flying names take a breather.
Reddit sentiment has reflected the unwind. Weekly average sentiment dropped to 33.95, classified as bearish, led by a viral r/stocks post titled “SpaceX stock tumbles 16.4%, shaving off most IPO gains since debut” that drew 2,758 upvotes.
Catalysts That Could Push the Stock Higher Strategic demand for SpaceX equity remains a real upside lever. Quantum Cyber (NASDAQ:QUCY) has announced it is pursuing an equity stake, with its CEO calling SpaceX “central to the future of defense technology.” Separately, Triller Group (NASDAQ:ILLR) recently moved to acquire an economic interest via an investment fund structure.
Starlink remains the bigger lever. The connectivity unit now operates roughly 9,600 satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, delivering service across 164 countries, territories, and other markets as of March 31. Reported plans for U.S. mobile entry, AI satellites, and expanded wireless services address a $1.6 trillion connectivity opportunity.
Defense spending is another tailwind. The FY2027 President’s Budget includes over $75 billion for space superiority, with explicit emphasis on leveraging commercial innovation. SpaceX, which has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023, sits at the center of that procurement story.
What the Market Is Pricing The lone active prediction market, a Polymarket contract on direction by June 29, shows a 50/50 split, signaling genuine uncertainty. The composite sentiment score sits at 59.2, neutral with a positive 7-day trend of +9.45.
The xAI acquisition earlier this year reframed SpaceX as a space, connectivity, and AI platform. That breadth is part of the bull case, but it also raises the bar for execution as investors weigh whether SpaceX stock has corrected enough.
What to Watch Next Near-term price action could hinge on whether the bond offering stabilizes and whether broader tech sentiment firms. Reaching $225 would require a meaningful rebound from current levels and is not guaranteed.
Investors can watch for whether SpaceX stock holds above $152 into the close, and whether follow-through buying from strategic stakeholders like Quantum Cyber materializes. Position sizing should remain modest given the volatility profile.
The next set of catalysts could come from Starlink mobile updates, defense contract awards, and any sign that the bond market is repricing higher. Until then, expect choppy trading.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock traded modestly lower Friday as investors pulled back from high-growth names amid a broader risk-off market.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.48%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.06%.
Analysts Point To Long-Term NarrativeD.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria told CNBC on Friday that SpaceX is trading largely on future expectations, similar to other Elon Musk-led companies. He said investors are assigning value to long-term opportunities such as Mars exploration and space-based data centers.
Vanda strategist Viraj Patel told CNBC that SpaceX has attracted strong retail interest because it combines a transformational technology story, an ambitious long-term vision, a high-profile founder and extensive media attention.
Morningstar Wealth’s Mike Coop told CNBC that the “cult of Elon” continues to draw retail investors and contribute to elevated volatility.
The stock has a Hold rating and an average price forecast of $158.33 (high $190.00, low $115.00) from seven analysts. Recent analyst moves include:
Argus Research: Initiated with Hold (June 26) Susquehanna: Initiated with Neutral (Forecast $170.00) (June 23) Keybanc: Initiated with Sector Weight (June 22) SpaceX Price ActionSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 0.47% at $152.28 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Shares of Quantum Cyber NASDAQ:QUCY surged 24% on Friday after the company announced that its board had approved pursuing the acquisition of an equity stake in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).
The company said the proposed investment is driven by the strategic alignment between the two firms' defense and communications capabilities.
The company said its board determined that SpaceX's low-Earth-orbit communications infrastructure, space-based sensing capabilities, and expanding US defense portfolio complement Quantum Cyber's multi-domain autonomous defense platform.
If completed, the investment would be carried on the company's balance sheet as a strategic technology holding.
Quantum Cyber did not disclose the size or value of the proposed stake or provide a timeline for completing the transaction.
The company said it has hired investment bankers to assist in pursuing the acquisition.
The proposed investment comes as Quantum Cyber seeks to expand its presence in advanced defense technologies and autonomous systems.
The company said SpaceX's communications networks and defense capabilities are highly complementary to its AI-powered autonomous defense platform, which is designed to operate across multiple domains.
“SpaceX is central to the future of defense technology,” said David Lazar, CEO of Quantum Cyber. “We are building a platform that operates across air, land, and sea, and we intend to be positioned at the intersection of autonomous defense and the infrastructure powering the next generation of it.”
Friday's rally marked the stock's first gain in seven trading sessions.
Prior to the rebound, Quantum Cyber shares had fallen 31.6%.
The planned SpaceX investment follows a series of strategic initiatives announced by Quantum Cyber this month.
On June 11, the company executed a definitive Intellectual Property License Agreement with Project LightShift Inc., securing exclusive worldwide rights to patent-protected quantum photonic array technology for defense drone applications.
Quantum Cyber also recently introduced Quantum Station, a battlefield command-and-control platform designed to integrate artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies aimed at reducing human error in drone operations.
In addition, the company revised its agreement with BP United, assuming direct control over the manufacturing of licensed drone products while retaining exclusive, perpetual rights to the drone technology portfolio.
BP United will continue to provide technical support and consulting services under the arrangement.
The company said these initiatives are intended to strengthen its position in autonomous defense systems and advanced military technologies.
Quantum Cyber also highlighted improvements in its financial position.
Earlier this month, the company terminated its at-the-market sales agreement with Maxim Group and said it now has a debt-free balance sheet with no outstanding exercisable warrants.
Meanwhile, SpaceX's inaugural $25 billion bond offering has reportedly come under pressure in the secondary market.
According to a Bloomberg report, the decline in the bonds has resulted in paper losses of approximately $305 million relative to Treasuries.
Despite the weakness in SpaceX's debt offering, investors appeared to welcome Quantum Cyber's strategic ambitions, sending shares sharply higher as the company seeks greater exposure to communications, aerospace, and defense technologies through a potential investment in SpaceX.
Triller Group (NASDAQ:ILLR) shares surged on Thursday after the company announced a deal that will give it significant exposure to SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) through a new treasury investment structure.
The company’s shares were up more than 42% on Friday, bringing its weekly gains to about 187%.
The company said its unit, Trendy Reach Holdings, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the membership interests of a Bahamian investment vehicle, SAC1, in a transaction valued at $411.3 million. Through the acquisition, Triller will gain exposure to approximately 3.9 million SpaceX shares held within the vehicle.
The deal effectively places SpaceX-linked assets on Triller’s balance sheet as a strategic treasury holding, marking a notable shift in the company’s capital allocation approach. The transaction is being executed through a wholly owned special-purpose subsidiary and is supported by a secured financing arrangement.
Triller said the SpaceX position was established prior to any potential public listing of the private aerospace company and is being acquired at what it described as a meaningful discount to current implied market value.
“This is a transformational step for our Company,” said Wing-Fai Ng, Group Chief Executive Officer. He added that the investment provides “meaningful exposure” to SpaceX and is intended to reshape how investors evaluate Triller’s balance sheet.
The company also indicated that the structure establishes a dedicated SpaceX treasury position, making Triller one of the few publicly traded firms with disclosed balance-sheet exposure to the private company.
The transaction is expected to close in the coming days, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory filings.
The massive rotation out of semiconductor stocks this week has reverberated throughout the tech sector, with the selloff negatively impacting everything from the Magnificent Seven to hardware—and space stocks are no exception.
However, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX has grabbed headlines by falling nearly 16% from its post-IPO high, losses for space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband competitor AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS have made holding SPCX look like a walk in the park.
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Despite the successful launch of its three newest BlueBird satellites last week, AST SpaceMobile’s stock continues its freefall. The Midland, Texas-based company has seen its shares lose more than 15% over the past five trading sessions, more than 39% over the past month, and around 45% from ASTS’s year-to-date (YTD) and all-time high (ATH) on May 28.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Friday, June, 26, 2026
For investors, the tension is clear: AST SpaceMobile’s latest launch was a technical win, but the market is still focused on volatility, capital intensity, insider selling, and the speed at which the company can turn satellite deployments into commercial revenue.
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52-Week Range$36.08▼
$133.86Price Target$85.09
Earlier in June, the market was keeping an eye on June 17 when AST SpaceMobile’s next three low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites—BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10—were scheduled for deployment upon SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.
The hope was that, in the wake of the BlueBird 7’s Blue Origin mishap, the addition of three satellites to the constellation would serve as a boon for shares of ASTS, putting the company back on track to meet its goal of having about 45 LEO satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
In part, that materialized. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 were successfully deployed from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and will immediately begin providing D2D commercial and government services.
In a recent press release, founder and CEO Abel Avellan said that “BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 represent the continued execution of a vision once considered impossible: space-based cellular broadband to everyone, everywhere.”
He added that AST SpaceMobile’s technology is designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones, positioning the company’s satellite network as a potential shift in how mobile broadband reaches underserved and hard-to-cover areas.
ASTS gained nearly 4% last Wednesday as investors turned the page. But optimism alone was not enough to keep the stock afloat. The stock gapped down by more than 10% the following day, with losses mounting ever since.
Why AST SpaceMobile’s Stock Keeps Getting PunishedThere are several reasons ASTS has entered a severe correction, chief among them being that investors have shown very little trust in highly volatile tech names. AST SpaceMobile’s beta currently stands at 2.70, meaning it’s 2.7x more turbulent than the S&P 500.
That volatility has been on full display in 2026. From Jan. 2 to its then-YTD high on Jan. 29, the stock gained more than 46%. An ensuing correction saw ASTS lose more than 35% before bottoming on Feb. 27. By March 4, shares had regained nearly 33% on the back of a positive Q4 2025 earnings report before losing another 30% by March 30.
The start of Q2 brought more of the same. A gain of 34% by April 13 was followed by a nearly 35% loss en route to its YTD low on May 5. Then shares ran up 108%, reaching their ATH on May 28 before the current selloff drove them back down to Earth.
But that volatility is borne of multiple factors. AST SpaceMobile’s offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes—which come due in 2036—was one. The announcement, which was disclosed in a Form 8-K filing in mid-February, soured investor sentiment. It also led to speculation that the capital-intensive nature of its fundamental business is cause for concern moving forward.
SpaceX’s public debut didn’t help, either. As retail investors clamored for shares ahead of SPCX’s June 12 IPO, other—and notably smaller—companies operating in the space economy saw their shares vacated in favor of the newly public industry leader.
Insider selling hasn’t helped support the stock, either. Over the past 12 months, insiders have dumped more than $451 million in shares, compared to just over $187,000 in shares purchased. On June 5 alone, chief technology officer Huiwen Yao sold 40,000 shares valued at $3,854,800.
Current Price$68.22High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$85.09Low Forecast$45.60AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details
Meanwhile, analyst downgrades and low ratings have been plentiful:
Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a Sell rating on ASTS on March 27.
Wall Street Zen lowered ASTS from a Sell rating to a Strong Sell rating on April 15.
The number of analysts assigning ASTS a Buy rating fell from three in March to one in June.
ASTS currently carries a Reduce consensus rating and an average price target of around $85.
Lastly, the company’s streak of five consecutive earnings misses has left shareholders dreading quarterly reports, the next of which comes on Aug. 10 after the market closes.
AST SpaceMobile Continues to Scale, But Execution Is the Key TestFor investors in search of bullish indicators, AST SpaceMobile is embracing its rapid growth, with satellites through BlueBird 37 currently in production.
At the same time, BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 are in their final preparations for shipment to Cape Canaveral, with Avellan noting that the successful stacked launch of Bluebirds 8, 9, and 10 should be the norm going forward.
“Our focus is firmly on execution: scaling launch cadence, manufacturing, and preparing for commercial service,” Avellan said.
That execution will matter more than the launch headlines alone. AST SpaceMobile says its commercial partner ecosystem now includes nearly 60 global mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers, giving the company a large potential distribution base if its satellite network scales as planned. But the investor case still depends on converting that partner reach into service availability, revenue, and eventually a clearer path toward profitability.
Fundamentally, the company’s vertically integrated operations and ability to rapidly scale should continue to be reflected in top-line growth—something that has already been playing out. In Q1, AST SpaceMobile reported year-over-year revenue growth of over 1,952%.
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As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) closes out two weeks of trading, Steve Silver, an analyst at Argus Research, has initiated coverage of SpaceX stock.
On June 26, the Wall Street analyst initiated a ‘Hold’ rating for SpaceX stock. However, Silver did not provide a specific price target for SPCX stock for the coming 12 months.
He flagged several factors that lead to a neutral stance on SpaceX stock. For instance, he noted that while the company is growing strongly at the top line, it has yet to achieve consistent profitability.
As such, the analyst highlighted that SpaceX has been operating a hybrid business model that blends mature infrastructure with venture-style growth investment, thereby complicating near-term earnings visibility.
The analyst also pointed to the tight supply of SPCX shares and upcoming post-IPO lockup expirations as additional drivers of near-term volatility. At roughly 95 times 2025 revenues, Argus said it may likely be years before the valuation multiple normalizes to more typical levels.
“The IPO valuation implied a price-to-sales multiple of approximately 95-times 2025 revenues…we think it will likely be years before SPCX’s multiples land at more normal levels,” Argus noted.
SpaceX stock price forecast and performance Following the Argus rating on SpaceX, the average Wall Street target for the company’s stock hovered around $222.20 at the time of reporting, according to data from TipRanks. Out of the 7 analysts that have set SpaceX stock price target for 12 months, the highest target is $401, while the lowest was $115 at the time of publication.
SPCX stock since IPO. Source: Finbold Since it began trading earlier this month, SpaceX stock price has added about 13.45%, trading at about $153.16 at the time of publication. As such, the company had a market capitalization of about $2 trillion, already down $1 trillion from its top as Finbold reported. However, the company’s outlook could be bolstered by rising demand for AI stocks, especially after its acquisition of an AI-focused startup, as Finbold highlighted.
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The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.06%) IPO was the biggest, and arguably the most divisive, in history. It raised about $75 billion, and for a brief period on June 16, it surpassed Microsoft and Amazon -- two companies with much stronger balance sheets -- in market cap.
SpaceX has been extremely volatile in its first weeks on the market. Since peaking at $226, it has declined to about $155 at market close on June 24. Does the pullback make for a better buying opportunity, or is the leading space company still overvalued?
Image source: Getty Images.
The valuation is still astronomical The most common criticism in the lead-up to SpaceX going public was the valuation. SpaceX is trading higher than its IPO price of $135 at the time of this writing, so the valuation concerns haven't gone away.
SpaceX isn't profitable, reporting a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025. Revenue that year was $18.7 billion. At a market cap of just over $2 trillion, SpaceX trades at 109 times last year's sales, making it the most expensive megacap stock. Palantir Technologies (PLTR +5.55%), previously the poster child for high valuations, is trading at 65 times annual sales.
Palantir used to be far more expensive, but it has lost 45% of its value since reaching an all-time high of $208 last November. That's what tends to happen with stocks trading at these kinds of premiums, because such high valuations are rarely sustainable.
The lockup expiration could create significant selling pressure Another risk of buying SpaceX stock now is that the stock is still in its lockup period, during which insiders can't sell their shares. While most companies set a fixed lockup period, typically 180 days, SpaceX handles this very differently.
It's taking a staggered approach, where selling windows for a percentage of insider holdings open gradually. The first selling window opens on the second trading day after the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings release, and insiders will be able to sell up to 20% of their shares. If the stock trades 30% above its IPO price (which would be $175.50) for at least five of the 10 trading days leading up to the earnings release, then insiders can sell up to an additional 10%.
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Selling windows will continue to open through Dec. 8, 2026, which is when the lockup period ends. However, CEO Elon Musk has said that he and "certain significant investors" have agreed to a 366-day lockup period.
The SpaceX IPO could reportedly turn more than 4,400 current and former employees into millionaires. It's a safe bet that many of them will want to sell at least some of their shares, both to lock in gains and because SpaceX stock has been volatile. SpaceX's selling windows will act as a headwind, and performance is likely to be rocky for at least the first 180 days.
The bottom line on SpaceX There are plenty of reasons to be excited about SpaceX as a business. It has a dominant share of the U.S. commercial launch market, conducting 80% of launches in 2025. Starlink has also been a winner, accounting for $11.4 billion in revenue. The jury's still out on the AI side of the company.
But based on the valuation and the lockup period, SpaceX is better to put on your watch list than to buy right now. That's what I'm doing, as I expect much better buying opportunities later in the year.
Robert Greifeld, former Nasdaq chairman and CEO, joins ‘Squawk on the Street' to discuss SpaceX as the stock has witnessed big spikes and drops following its public debut.
Around two weeks ago, Elon Musk’s SpaceX conglomerate went public. Everyone who is remotely interested has a fair idea of the numbers.
But in a nutshell, it was easily the biggest Initial Public Offering (IPO) in history. It also led to Mr Musk becoming the first ever trillionaire, however briefly.
Without doubt, the whole SpaceX SPCX IPO was a stunning success. The first trade was matched at $150, which represented a perfectly reasonable 11% premium to the issue price of $135 per share, and the stock then rallied to close out at just over $160, representing a first-day gain of 19%.
Plenty of retail investors received a small allocation and, on the Monday following the IPO, the stock then soared to just shy of $230.
Since then, it has sold off, and earlier this week, it broke below $150. That still represented a healthy premium to the IPO price, and the shares have picked up once again.
All in all, it was an impressive launch which appeared to go off without a hitch.
Meanwhile, there’s still a bit of a shakeout going on across the tech sector, particularly in semiconductor stocks.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ, along with the heavily-weighted-towards-tech S&P 500, peaked on the 2nd of June.
Both have struggled to make further upside progress ever since. Meanwhile, as June drew to a close, the old-school Dow and the small cap Russell 2000 made fresh record highs.
This looks like good news for stock market bulls as it suggests that some rotation is taking place whereby investors take profits on stocks which have outperformed recently (and the semiconductor sector has certainly done that) while ploughing the proceeds back into some overlooked, and relatively undervalued, corners of the market.
This indicates that risk appetite remains strong. US equities remain the investment of choice for the vast majority of investors, particularly within the US, where individuals have always favoured putting their savings in the stock market, where returns have been substantial, easily outpacing inflation.
But it wasn’t that long ago when US retail investors favoured holding a diversified portfolio with a mixture of growth and value plays, including dividend payers, energy, consumer staples, and the like.
Not only that, but investors would also own a chunk of bonds as well. Yet evidence suggests that there is far less diversification across portfolios than there used to be.
And very few investors would even look at the bond market these days.
In the years following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008/9, bonds soared as yields slumped as central banks around the world cut interest rates to stimulate growth.
Stock markets also soared as central banks goosed the markets with quantitative easing, and governments joined in and provided dollops of fiscal stimulus too.
That was the backdrop to the rather unusual situation where equities rallied along with bonds.
Historically, there was typically a negative correlation. This was the main reason that investors were advised to gradually reduce their exposure to equities and raise their bond holdings as they approached retirement.
But once central banks began to normalise rates, bonds underperformed. In fact, in the years after 2022, the bond market experienced one of its worst bear markets in history.
Yet, after a rocky start to 2022, equities took off in October and have been on a bull run ever since.
The trouble is that investors tend to extrapolate out, and decide that whatever has happened in the recent past is likely to go on forever.
Even if they appreciate that all bull markets end eventually, they calculate that they will see the signs well in advance and get out before everyone else. Some do.
But, once again, history shows us that many don’t. Very few investors are able to time the markets. In fact, many analysts insist that it can’t be done.
Yet there are often things which, when looked back on in hindsight, can signal, to quote Alan Greenspan, ‘irrational exuberance’.
Could the SpaceX IPO be one of those occasions? It was valued at around 95 times 2025 sales when the only profitable bit of the business is providing an internet service.
Sure, Elon Musk could end up mining asteroids, but his xAI business isn’t exactly a market leader.
When stock market returns, particularly in tech, have been so spectacular for so many years, it may be wise to reduce one’s exposure, even at the risk of missing out on a few extra percentage points of gains.
And maybe it’s time to take a look at bonds again.
They’ve been overlooked for a long time now. And there’s always the possibility that the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may soon be sounding less hawkish now that oil prices are coming down.
(This is a fortnightly column by David Morrison. He is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)
Chad Anderson, managing partner at Space Capital and longtime SpaceX investor, discusses the volatility we've seen in the stock since the IPO, but says the opportunity in both SpaceX and the broader space economy is long-term.
Much as Elon Musk's vision for Tesla is for it to be more than a car company, his plans for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.92%) extend well beyond rocket launches. The company believes its biggest opportunity is in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. While SpaceX believes its total addressable market to be $28.5 trillion, the bulk of that, $26.5 trillion, is based on its opportunities in AI.
That is key to the dynamic for understanding SpaceX as an investment, as well as the challenges and potential rewards awaiting it in its effort to capture as much of that addressable market as possible.
Image source: Getty Images.
Early wins for SpaceX's AI ambitions Even before its initial public offering, SpaceX's ability to serve as an AI infrastructure provider was on full display. In May, it struck a deal with a major AI start-up planning its own IPO: Anthropic will be renting all the compute capacity online at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center through May 2029 for $1.2 billion per month.
In June, SpaceX signed a similar deal with Alphabet, which will rent compute capacity for $920 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029. Both Alphabet and Anthropic are allowed to exit those agreements with a bit of notice, but if those deals both run their full course, they would generate over $70 billion in revenue for SpaceX.
Then, after its IPO, SpaceX announced another deal to rent out its computing capacity at its Colossus 2 data center, this time to Reflection AI, for $150 million per month from July 2026 through 2029. If that agreement lasts through 2029, it would deliver total revenue of $6.3 billion.
But turning its extra ground-based compute capacity into revenue may just be an early preview of the bigger opportunities SpaceX could capture.
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Data centers in space Terrestrial data centers are just the start of SpaceX's AI infrastructure plans. In January, the company filed an application with the Federal Communications Commission seeking permission to launch up to 1 million solar-powered satellites to serve as orbital data centers.
According to its S-1 filing, SpaceX plans to start launching such satellites as soon as 2028. In addition, it has reportedly been in talks with Alphabet about its Project Suncatcher program, which is likewise exploring the possibility of putting data centers in orbit. Alphabet intends to launch two prototype satellites in early 2027 with help from Planet Labs; its talks with SpaceX reportedly focused on its potential as a launch partner for future satellites beyond those.
The expensive road ahead For SpaceX to build out AI infrastructure, especially in space, it won't be cheap. In 2025, out of its AI, space, and connectivity capital expenditures, AI easily had the highest costs:
2025 AI capital expenditures: $12.7 billion 2025 space capital expenditures: $3.8 billion 2025 connectivity capital expenditures: $4.1 billion The AI division also generated the least amount of revenue, at $3.2 billion. That said, Goldman Sachs foresees that number increasing significantly to $322 billion by 2030.
There's plenty of long-term upside potential for SpaceX if it can successfully and profitably execute on deploying AI infrastructure in space. But for investors, the price of trying to capture some of that potential is dealing with risks, volatility, and the discomfort of stock price pullbacks along the way.
Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Goldman Sachs Group, Planet Labs PBC, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Quantum Cyber stock is showing exceptional strength. Why is QUCY stock surging? The AnnouncementThe announcement follows Quantum Cyber’s execution on June 11 of a definitive Intellectual Property License Agreement with Project LightShift Inc., through which the company secured exclusive worldwide rights to patent-protected quantum photonic array technology for defense drone applications.
“SpaceX is central to the future of defense technology,” said David Lazar, CEO. “We are building a platform that operates across air, land, and sea, and we intend to be positioned at the intersection of autonomous defense and the infrastructure powering the next generation of it.”
Quantum Cyber Shares SkyrocketQUCY Price Action: At the time of publication, Quantum Cyber shares are trading 24.48% higher at $1.80, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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The ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (CBOE:ARKX) has become a popular parking spot for investors seeking space exposure without waiting for the SpaceX IPO. With Elon Musk’s rocket company reportedly headed toward a public listing at a valuation north of a trillion dollars, retail demand for a single ticker capturing the theme has surged. ARKX, with $893 million in net assets and 35 positions, spreads the bet across launch providers, defense contractors, and chipmakers that supply them. The fund is up 46.71% over the past year, and the case for owning it rather than betting everything on a single IPO allocation merits examination.
Why the SpaceX-Only Trade Is Tempting SpaceX dominates commercial launch, controls Starlink, and is treated as the default proxy for the entire space economy. A single allocation at IPO pricing appears to be the cleanest way to own the theme. The problem is access. Retail investors will likely receive minimal allotments at IPO, and secondary-market float in the first months will be thin. One of our podcast discussions put it bluntly: “What we have for SpaceX remains tiny float, only 4% of shares traded.” Concentrating capital into a tightly held debut at a valuation already estimated near a trillion dollars leaves little margin for error.
Where the Single-Stock Bet Falls Short A SpaceX allocation gives an investor a single company, a single balance sheet, and a single regulatory environment. The space economy is broader than that. Launch is a piece of it, but so are satellite communications, defense electronics, semiconductors powering orbital compute, and ground navigation systems. A reader who buys SpaceX alone gets none of that secondary exposure and pays a price set by IPO underwriters rather than a competitive market. If the listing prices rise and trade down, as overheated debuts often do, the concentrated holder absorbs the full drawdown.
What ARKX Actually Owns This fund is built on the premise that space is really a supply chain story more than anything else. The top holding is L3Harris Technologies at 7.83% of net assets, followed closely by Rocket Lab at 7.78%. Rocket Lab is the most direct competitor to the dominant launch player in the portfolio, and its stock has done the heavy lifting on recent returns, gaining 190.18% over the past year. The larger defense contractor in the top spot added 18.86%, and another name in the defense space contributed 16.43% over that same period.
Below the top names, the fund holds AMD at 6.14%, Teradyne at 6.64%, and meaningful positions in Iridium Communications, Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Intuitive Machines. That mix captures the chips, test equipment, satellite networks, and lunar logistics that any space buildout requires. It also reaches outside the U.S. with Airbus, Thales, and Elbit Systems.
The Diversification Mechanism The single largest holding caps the fund’s exposure at under 8%, so no one disappointment can take the position down by more than a few points. Rocket Lab’s 29.94% drop over the past month illustrates the point. While that move would gut a concentrated holder, ARKX itself fell 7.34% in the same window because L3Harris, AMD, and the defense names absorbed less of the selloff. The structural trade-off is real: ARKX will move less than a concentrated SpaceX position in either direction, dampening both the upside of a runaway IPO and the downside of a broken debut.
The Real Tradeoffs This fund is actively managed, which means you get turnover and discretion from the research team running it. Its five-year return of roughly 56% trails broad market indexes over that same period, so it really sits in thematic allocation territory rather than core holding status. The fund has no direct position in the dominant launch company today, so an investor seeking pure exposure to that equity will not find it here. If and when that company goes public, the fund may add it, but its weight is unlikely to exceed the cap applied to other individual holdings.
How to Think About Sizing For an investor planning to chase a small IPO allocation, ARKX works as the broader sleeve holding the rest of the space budget. Buying the ETF in a tax-advantaged account avoids the capital-gains friction of trimming later. For a reader who already owns several of the top holdings directly, overlap is worth noting, since AMD, Amazon, and Alphabet appear in many core funds.
Reading the Setup This fund offers a way to own the rest of the space economy at a normal market price, with position caps that limit single-stock risk and a roster that has produced a 46.71% one-year return without depending on any one company. For a reader weighing how much capital to commit to an IPO where they may receive only a sliver of the allocation, the fund is worth evaluating as a diversified anchor for that single bet.
Following an impressive stock market SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) launch, the equity took a sharp downward turn shortly after setting a record valuation of almost $3 trillion on June 16.
By press time on June 26, SPCX shares have retraced nearly completely to their original opening price of $150 with SpaceX stock price today trading at $150.96. Still, SpaceX stock price remains above the initial public offering (IPO) ask of $135.
Indeed, despite the latest SPCX equity plunge, a $10,000 investment made at the original $135 and $1.77 trillion valuation would have been profitable as the shares remain 11.82% above the level.
Overall, the $10,000 SpaceX IPO stock purchase would have led to a position worth $11,182 for $1,182 in profits. On the other hand, buying on the morning of June 12 would have led to a $10,064 stake.
Simultaneously, being slightly late to the SpaceX launch and purchasing at the firm’s first-ever closing price of $160.95 would have led to $620.69 – 6.2% – in losses.
SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Google Could a $10,000 SpaceX launch valuation rocket by 2027? Looking ahead, it is likely that a $10,000 SpaceX launch investment could turn substantially more profitable both in the near and intermediate future.
To begin with, SPCX shares likely to soon enjoy fast-track inclusion into the Nasdaq-100, generating renewed upward pressure from index funds’ automatic buying.
Though the tailwinds could subsequently again be diminished as insiders become able to sell their stakes, Wall Street has demonstrated significant bullishness toward SpaceX stock.
Specifically, despite the recent downturn, SpaceX company stock is overall considered a ‘Moderate Buy’ by analysts and is, on average, expected to rally 47.58% to $222.20 in the next 12 months, per the data Finbold retrieved from TipRanks on June 26.
Wall Street sets SpaceX stock price for next 12 months. Source: TipRanks Should the forecast prove correct, a $10,000 investment made at the SPCX IPO price would grow to $16,459, and the same investment made as soon as the company hit the market would rise to $14,813.
Furthermore, despite the severe mismatch between the SpaceX valuation and the company’s revenue and profitability, multiple major institutions and Elon Musk himself came out voicing a strong belief that the firm will see its business rocket by 2030.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham thinks the artificial intelligence boom has pushed the U.S. stock market to its most expensive level ever and could eventually lead to a historic decline.
"Based on the value of the stock market compared to GDP, with modifications, this is the most expensive market in American history," Grantham told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
While the GMO co-founder said he wasn't sure there was a comparable period, the tech bubble of 2000 is the closest analogy. He also highlighted the so-called Buffet indicator, which compares the total value of the U.S. stock market valuation with the size of the economy in terms of GDP.
The market capitalization to GDP ratio referenced by Grantham is estimated to be at 235%, according to Longtermtrends.com. It means that the value of the total stock market is more than two times the size of the U.S. economy.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett used this indicator, saying years ago that when it "approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire."
Graham said that, while the timing was terribly uncertain, markets could potentially peak.
Grantham is a famed investor known for his history of calling bear markets and has issued similar dire warnings in the past, including in March 2024.
At the time, he predicted the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks was almost as poor as at any other point in history but the stocks continued to advance after that warning.
"The long-run prospects for the broad U.S. stock market here look as poor as almost any other time in history," Grantham had said in a blog post released by Boston-based GMO at the time.
Grantham on SpaceXGrantham also discussed SpaceX following its blockbuster IPO. The stock raced higher in the first few days of trading but has sine lost steam. The investor said that while AI is where investors want to put all their money in, this also creates the conditions for excessive investment.
He pointed out that Amazon shares fell 92% after the dot-com bubble before the company eventually "inherited the earth."
SPCX 5-day chart
"The long term is complicated, I don't know, but is it going to have a crash like Amazon? Yes, very likely. And then what happens is indeed it may float away debris on the waves of time, or it will inherit a lot of the market, like Amazon did," he said.
SpaceX and its roughly $2 trillion valuation, he believes, is another sign of extreme market enthusiasm.
He said historians may eventually view the company's public-market debut as "one of the defining peaks of all time."
"It's the thing you see around the top," Grantham said.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseSpace WatchSpace WatchSpaceX is set to be added to the Russell 1000 after Friday’s close, and it could join other major indexes in the days aheadUpdated June 26, 2026, 10:31 a.m. ET
SpaceX is set to be added to a major index after the market closes on Friday, which will force some passive funds to buy billions of dollars’ worth of the stock.
The Russell 1000 will add SpaceX SPCX to its ranks as part of FTSE Russell’s rebalancing, scheduled for Friday. While it normally would have taken much longer for SpaceX, which had its initial public offering on June 12, to become eligible for inclusion, the index provider had earlier adjusted its rules to allow select newly public companies to be fast-tracked after as few as five days of trading.
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is considering launching a Starlink-branded mobile phone service in the United States, according to a Financial Times report published on Friday, potentially expanding the company's role in the telecommunications market.
The report cited comments from SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell during a recent investor roadshow, where she reportedly discussed plans for a direct-to-consumer wireless offering and the possibility of building a terrestrial mobile network in the US.
SpaceX currently works with T-Mobile to provide direct-to-cell satellite connectivity aimed at extending coverage to remote areas. A standalone mobile service would place the Elon Musk-led company in more direct competition with established wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.
According to the Financial Times, SpaceX has told investors that a retail Starlink mobile product could allow the company to capture a larger share of customer revenue by combining satellite capabilities with terrestrial wireless infrastructure.
The company strengthened its wireless spectrum holdings through acquisitions of EchoStar licenses totaling about $19.6 billion, including a roughly $17 billion purchase in September 2025 and an additional $2.6 billion transaction in November.
Starlink has more than 10 million subscribers worldwide and has become a key contributor to SpaceX's record valuation.
Shares of SpaceX traded hands at $153 on Friday, after debuting at $135 per share on June 12.
SpaceX logo as an employe looks at his phone while making his way to work at the company’s facility on the day of the SpaceX IPO, in Hawthorne, California, U.S. June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mike... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
June 26 (Reuters) - Even by SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab standards, Friday is shaping up as an eventful trading session as investment funds tracking Russell indexes prepare to add billions of dollars' worth of Elon Musk's internet and rocket company to their holdings.
After a blockbuster initial public offering this month, SpaceX's stock has been on a wild ride, soaring 67% to its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 before tumbling to Thursday's $153 close.
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The stock remains well above the $135 IPO price as investors assess how to value a company that lost $4.9 billion last year, but that backers expect to dominate the satellite internet, AI and commercial space launch markets that they believe will define the next decade of global infrastructure.
FTSE Russell will add SpaceX to its Russell U.S. indexes after Friday's close of trading as part of its semi-annual index reconstitution. That means passively managed exchange-traded funds that track Russell indexes, such as the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB.P), opens new tab, will have to add SpaceX shares to their portfolios. The event will likely take place in a narrow window toward market close on Friday as fund managers attempt to minimize the "tracking error" between their funds' performance and the index that can result if their buy-in price differs from the closing price.
While SpaceX's $2 trillion market capitalization makes it almost as valuable as Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, only about $100 billion of shares have been listed for trading on the stock market, with the rest owned by Musk, other insiders and employees. Passively managed funds will need to buy almost $3 billion worth of SpaceX shares to match the Russell indexes they track, Jefferies estimated in a report this month. That could mean a squeeze as Friday's closing auction approaches, though options positioning appeared muted.
SpaceX options contracts set to expire on Friday are priced for a share price swing of 3.6% in either direction by the end of the week, Trade Alert data showed.
SpaceX is also set to be added to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), opens new tab in July, an event that will force large index funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks that index, to buy its shares.
Following its losses in recent sessions, SpaceX is trading at 107 times its 2025 sales, an astronomical valuation. By comparison, AI heavyweight chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab recently traded at 21 times sales.
S&P Global blocked SpaceX from joining the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab after it said this month it would not change its inclusion criteria to accommodate megacap IPOs. To be included in the S&P 500, a company must be profitable in its most recent quarter as well as for the sum of its most recent four quarters, according to one of the rules S&P left unchanged.
The S&P 500 addition in 2020 of another Musk company, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, resulted in a closing squeeze that sent shares up 6%.
Reporting by Noel Randewich in San Francisco and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; editing by Colin Barr, Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
San Francisco correspondent covering the stock market with a focus on Big Tech, semiconductors and other Silicon Valley companies
This report is from this week's The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Rollercoaster. That's probably the most accurate word to describe SpaceX's opening two weeks as a public company.
The stock surged for several successive days following a record-breaking IPO, briefly overtaking both Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market cap and rising more than 60% on the initial share offering price of $135.
But the good times weren't set to last. Daily drops of 5% and 4% were followed by a 16% slump as jitters crept into the market. Steadier days followed, with single point moves in either direction.
The volatility underscores the whipsaw nature of a story-driven stock.
Lofty sci-fi ambitions, huge coverage in the *ahem* media and a founder with a cult-like following whipped up a frenzy of excitement around the company.
"Most stocks trade based on how their multiple of earnings compares to other comparable stocks," Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told me.
"Elon Musk companies don't really do that." Musk's ventures instead trade on expectations, he added.
"Tesla trades more on [autonomous driving service] Robotaxi and [humanoid robot] Optimus than they do on selling cars, and SpaceX trades more on the promise of Mars exploration, or at least data centers in space," said Luria.
Retail investors bought into that forward-looking narrative in droves.
SpaceX "embodies many of the qualities that have historically resonated with retail investors: a transformational technology story, a bold vision of the future, a celebrity founder and unparalleled media attention," Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda, said.
In the first five trading sessions, retail investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX shares, comfortably the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history, said research firm Vanda.
"For SpaceX, the 'cult of Elon' pulls in more retail investors and adds extra hype that can add a lot to volatility as we saw with Tesla share prices," Mike Coop, chief investment officer, EMEA at Morningstar Wealth, told me. Morningstar analysts caused a stir in the run-up to SpaceX's IPO, writing that the stock was worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion target.
After a bullish initial few days on the public markets, fundamentals became a bigger driver of the price causing a "hangover," said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Musk has been, in a somewhat predictable fashion, touting sky-high revenue growth in years to come. He said on June 14 that the company "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion revenue in 2030.
That would mark a huge jump from the $18.7 billion in revenue SpaceX made in 2025. The company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, and it lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Long term SpaceX faces two big challenges on the markets, said Coop.
"Firstly, the supply of shares will go up as early investors lighten up exposures and monetise gains," he said.
"Secondly, the current price is too high given the massive uncertainty around the company's prospects and its starting point of being heavily loss making and requiring huge capital investment."
Despite that, so far few have been willing to bet against the stock.
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame said on June 16 that he has no position in SpaceX, and argued that options used to wager against the stock remain too expensive even as he questioned the company's nearly $3 trillion market value.
And while SpaceX is seeing some interest from short sellers, many are still reluctant to bet against Musk.
Time will tell how far narrative takes SpaceX stock. In any case, expect more twists and turns on the rollercoaster.
Latest updatesAnthropic is racing to increase its AI compute capacity in the Asia-Pacific region, as the company scrambles to keep up with soaring demand for its products.
OpenAI and Broadcom on Wednesday unveiled their debut custom chip, called Jalapeño, marking the ChatGPT maker's first entry into artificial intelligence silicon.
A second worker has died at the construction site of BYD's electric vehicle factory in Szeged, Hungary, CNBC has learned.
Apple on Thursday announced price hikes on MacBooks and iPads, its first formal move to pass higher memory and storage costs on to consumers after CEO Tim Cook said increases had become unavoidable.
ON Semiconductor has agreed to buy Synaptics in a nearly $7 billion all-stock deal to bolster its push into physical artificial intelligence technology.
Stock of the week
Micron stock.
Memory chipmaker Micron had a good week as its third-quarter results topped analysts' estimates.
The U.S. company has been one of the main beneficiaries of the AI boom, with its stock price up more than 800% over the past year, lifting the company's market cap past $1 trillion.
Space Exploration Technologies went public on June 12 in the biggest market debut in history. After some significant ups and downs since then, its market capitalization is still around $2 trillion, and given its lofty price-to-sales ratio of over 100, many investors are -- smartly -- staying on the sidelines.
If you want exposure to the satellite industry -- the key economic engine of SpaceX -- without that premium price tag, here are three stocks to consider.
1. Rocket Lab Rocket Lab USA (RKLB 5.95%) is the closest peer to SpaceX in its core businesses. It launches rockets and manufactures satellites and satellite components.
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Its Electron rocket is the world's third-most-launched orbital rocket, behind only SpaceX's Falcon 9 and China's Long March family of rockets. The company's satellite segment has grown rapidly, and now accounts for nearly 70% of revenue.
Here's a look at the company's basic financials:
MetricFigureRevenue (TTM)$679.6 millionEarnings per share (TTM)($0.32)Free cash flow (TTM)($316.3 million)Price-to-sales ratio 78 Source: Yahoo! Finance. TTM = trailing 12 months. P/S ratio as of June 24, 2026.
The bull case The company is nearing the debut of Neutron, a much bigger, partially reusable rocket that will directly compete with the Falcon 9, SpaceX's workhorse. If Rocket Lab can successfully fly it, the company has the opportunity to achieve a step change in sales and could, over time, meaningfully encroach on SpaceX's slice of the launch pie.
The bear case Unfortunately, the date for Neutron's first flight has slipped multiple times, and the company has enormous execution risks ahead. And of course, its valuation is extremely high, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio comparable to SpaceX's. That said, as a much smaller player at the moment, it will be easier for Rocket Lab to grow into that valuation.
2. AST SpaceMobile AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 3.63%) is a purer satellite play, with a service that competes with Starlink. AST's satellite network beams high-speed data to unmodified smartphones -- no special hardware needed.
MetricFigureRevenue (TTM)$84.9 millionEarnings per share (TTM)($1.80)Free cash flow (TTM)($1.37 billion)Price/sales ratio234 Source: Yahoo! Finance. TTM = trailing 12 months. P/S ratio as of June 24, 2026.
The bull case AST's technology provides up to 5G coverage -- faster than Starlink -- and offers greater capacity in urban areas. To be sure, it is still designed primarily to fill cell coverage gaps in rural areas, but AST's satellites have much more capacity in more densely populated areas.
The company also has some pretty impressive partners, including AT&T and Verizon.
The bear case While there is a large potential market for this service, no one really knows how big it really is. AST's coverage is designed as an add-on, not a replacement for terrestrial networks.
Like most space stocks, its valuation is pretty extreme, with a P/S of about 234. And launching and maintaining satellites is an expensive endeavor, especially when you don't also have a rocket-launching business in-house.
Image source: Getty Images.
3. Viasat Finally, Viasat (VSAT 3.57%). Traditionally, the company's most valuable business has been its in-flight connectivity service -- the Wi-Fi you use when flying on United or American. Recently, its defense sector business has become the major growth driver.
MetricFigureRevenue (TTM)$4.64 billionEarnings per share (TTM)($0.25)Free cash flow (TTM)$597.1 millionPrice/sales ratio 1.8 Source: Yahoo! Finance. TTM = trailing 12 months. P/S ratio as of June 24, 2026.
The bull case Viasat has a large revenue backlog, and recently, its defense and government contracts have grown rapidly. The aviation business has been on the back foot, but there are signs that things could be turning a corner, given some of Starlink's technical limitations.
The bear case Three years ago, Viasat's strategic acquisition of Inmarsat saddled the company with nearly $6 billion in net debt, and interest payments eat much of the cash it generates. The company also suffered a serious setback in 2023 when a (then) brand-new satellite was permanently damaged, severely limiting its capacity.
The company has since handled the issue by launching an additional satellite, but it's a clear example of how much damage a single botched deployment can cause.
The question hanging over this year's listing pipeline was simple: Could public markets absorb three trillion-dollar technology floats in quick succession? SpaceX went first. The early read is not encouraging.
Elon Musk's rocket company listed on 12 June and raised more than $85 billion, the largest debut on record.
The stock has since gone into reverse. It closed at $153 on Thursday after topping $225 last week. Musk has lost his trillionaire status in the process.
That sequence appears to have concentrated minds inside OpenAI.
OpenAI is now minded to wait
The company is leaning toward pushing its listing from late this year into 2027, sources told The New York Times. Its advisers spent the past week warning that a float might not draw enough demand while tech shares slide.
OpenAI had hired bankers and lawyers with a third or fourth quarter listing in view. Altman wanted a $1 trillion valuation out of it.
Advisers offered him a choice. Wait until 2027 for the trillion-dollar figure, or accept less for a faster deal.
He called any cut a "nonstarter," one person in contact with him told the Times. So the timing slips rather than the price.
Numbers behind the caution
OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion. It reported roughly $13 billion in revenue last year against a $21 billion net loss. Projected spending on compute and hardware runs to $600 billion through 2030.
That gap explains the scramble for fresh income.
The company is testing ads inside ChatGPT and building commerce tie-ups with Shopify and Stripe. It is also trimming money-losers, including the Sora video app.
Internal nerves predate the public wobble. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar had already raised concerns about this year's finances, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Anthropic changes the maths
OpenAI is not floating into an empty room. Its main rival filed confidentially on 1 June for a debut expected late this year.
Anthropic raised money at a $965 billion valuation in late May. That figure overtook OpenAI's private mark for the first time.
So Altman faces a rival carrying a richer price tag and a market that has just punished the biggest name to test it. Waiting buys time for sentiment to recover. It also hands Anthropic the chance to reach public investors first.
'Realism' sets in
Altman has not blinked on valuation. He has blinked on timing. The trillion-dollar number stays. The date moves. Whether 2027 looks friendlier than 2026 is the call he is now making.
Two weeks ago, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)(SPCX 1.00%) cemented its name in the record books. Including the overallotment option exercised by underwriters, SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), nearly tripling the $29.4 billion raised by overseas oil titan Saudi Aramco in December 2019.
But investing on Wall Street isn't about where a stock has been -- it's about where it'll head next. Although historical precedent can't guarantee what's to come, history does tend to rhyme. Using history as a guide, here's my prediction for SpaceX's share price by the end of 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's intangibles are its biggest catalysts and question marks Arguably, the leading catalyst for SpaceX is retail investor euphoria, which is incredibly difficult to quantify. Retail investors have flocked to this record-breaking IPO for a variety of reasons:
SpaceX is at the forefront of two of the largest addressable opportunities, artificial intelligence (AI) and the space economy. CEO Elon Musk has a track record for generating outsize investment returns at Tesla. SpaceX's sales growth should be parabolic over the next few years. To be clear, this means only the S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX shortly after its IPO.
FTSE Russell adds eligible megacap IPOs after the close of the 5th trading day.
Nasdaq adds them about 15 trading days after listing.
The S&P 500 kept its rules, so SpaceX waits the full...
-- Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) June 4, 2026 Additionally, the company should receive an early boost from recently amended index inclusion rules. Prior to SpaceX's debut, Nasdaq Global Indexes reshaped the criteria for Nasdaq-100 inclusion. The low float requirement was shelved, and the time to inclusion for megacap companies was slashed from around three months to just 15 trading sessions.
The U.S. Russell Equity Indexes followed suit with amended fast-track inclusion criteria, as well.
Fast entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 can provide tens of billions of dollars in buying demand from index funds.
Image source: Getty Images.
Caveat emptor, retail investors While SpaceX isn't without catalysts, history strongly suggests shares will head substantially lower.
To begin with, large-scale IPOs tend to struggle mightily in their first year as public companies. According to research published by Truist Financial, the average year-one drawdown for the 30 most-hyped, tech-driven IPOs since May 2012 is 55%! What this figure tells investors is that the initial euphoria following a company's debut fades quickly.
Moral of the story-do NOT chase hot IPOs
Year-1 average drawdown = 55%
Year-1 median drawdown = 54%
Table: Truist pic.twitter.com/xt864JD4Xh
-- Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) June 3, 2026 SpaceX's valuation is also completely unjustified. Based on what history tells us, no company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has ever sustained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for an extended period. As of the closing bell on June 24, SpaceX is valued at a P/S ratio of 109!
The company's staggered lockup schedule is another cause for concern. Instead of a 180-day lockup period where insiders can't sell their shares, SpaceX settled on an accelerated unlock schedule with several time- and performance-based markers. Insiders will be able to cash out at retail investors' expense, leaving them holding the bag for an expensive, unproven, and unprofitable business.
All of these historical factors suggest that SpaceX's year-one max drawdown will be larger than the average pullback of 55%.
While I'm inclined to believe retail investors' allegiance to Musk can support an outsize premium for SpaceX, its egregious valuation and the upcoming lockup period are red flags that can't be ignored. I expect SpaceX to hover around or just below the $1 trillion market cap mark by the end of 2027, placing its share price in the neighborhood of $75.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla and Truist Financial. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
If you've been reading Motley Fool articles on Elon Musk's company, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.00%), or SpaceX, you've probably seen more than a few of my colleagues deem the stock overvalued. Stock analysts at Morningstar see the stock similarly.
In fact, Morningstar estimates that the stock is trading at a 152% premium. It placed a fair value of $62 on the stock as of June 16, which is well above the $154 closing price as of June 24. That price gives the company a market capitalization of $2.05 trillion. If the price were $62, the corresponding market cap would be around $800 billion -- still a hefty sum. The difference between the two valuations is a whopping $1.2 trillion.
Image source: Getty Images.
So who's right? See what you think.
Valuing SpaceX You might want to check SpaceX's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, but you can't -- because there are no earnings. The company is currently losing money, and a lot of it. In such situations, though, you can check out the price-to-sales ratio, which uses the business's revenue instead of earnings. In SpaceX's case, its recent price-to-sales ratio was 78 (as of June 24). That's a steep number.
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To appreciate the magnitude of SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio, think of one of the most high-flying stocks in recent years -- semiconductor giant Nvidia. It has averaged annual gains of 67% over the past decade and is up nearly 40% over the past year. Yet its price-to-sales ratio is just 19. Even more striking is memory giant Micron, whose shares have soared 762% over the past year. Its price-to-sales ratio is 20.5 (again, as of June 24). You can see how much more investors are willing to pay for a dollar of SpaceX's sales, versus other highly regarded tech companies.
Who's right? No one can say for sure which valuation is correct -- or closer to correct. Every analyst's valuation is always based on various assumptions about growth rates and other factors. But it's hard to not see SpaceX's shares as richly valued, and a closer look at the stock will reveal multiple reasons why you might want to steer clear.
After all, it's still not turning a profit. In 2025, it lost nearly $5 billion. While its Starlink business, featuring satellite-based internet, is profitable, its growth appears to be slowing, with shrinking revenue per user.
Anyone investing now is expecting the stock to go up, but it's been going down lately -- down 22.6% over the past week, as of June 23. Remember that should there be a market pullback, growth stocks and overvalued stocks tend to fall harder than average. So there's clearly risk in this investment.
The $62-per-share valuation seems more appropriate to me than a $155 one. If you don't agree with me, wait for the company's upcoming earnings report, expected in a month or so, to see how it's doing.
The silhouette of Elon Musk and Starlink logo are seen in this illustration taken June 11, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
June 26 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab has told investors that it plans to launch a Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
SpaceX was considering launching a Starlink retail product and could build its own terrestrial U.S. mobile network, President Gwynne Shotwell told investors during a recent IPO roadshow, according to the FT report.
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Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
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Warren Buffett, the longtime CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B), hasn't weighed in on the SpaceX (SPCX 1.00%) IPO, but it's worth considering what his thoughts might be.
After all, Buffett is generally regarded as the greatest investor of all time. Over a career of more than 60 years, he nearly doubled the average return of the S&P 500, delivering a total gain of 6,099,294% from 1964 to 2025.
Though Buffett is no longer the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, having stepped down at the end of last year, he remains the chairman of the trillion-dollar conglomerate, and his wisdom remains just as valuable as it would if he were the CEO.
While Buffett hasn't commented specifically on SpaceX, he did discuss the Uber IPO in an interview back in 2019 when the ridesharing company went public, and many of those comments could easily be applied to the SpaceX IPO.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
In an interview with CNBC's Becky Quick in 2019, Buffett said that Berkshire Hathaway hadn't bought an IPO in the 54 years that he'd been running the company, and that he sees them as a misalignment of incentives.
He explained that the IPO process makes for a seller's market, saying skeptically, "To say that the best place in the world to put my money is where all the selling incentives are there... that that's going to be better than a thousand other things? That's the single best thing to buy in a single day?" He was suspect of the commissions and incentives used to push IPOs as well.
Buffett and his longtime partner, Charlie Munger, also cast suspicion toward companies like Uber that had raised a lot of capital and spent, but were generating losses. The same could be said for SpaceX, which has raised and invested billions, but is still losing money following its merger with xAI.
Buffett's simple litmus test for investing Buffett also offered a simple test for deciding whether to buy stock. He advised writing down, "I'm buying (x) stock because..." and if you can't give a good answer to that question, then you shouldn't be buying the stock.
He explained that an answer like "my neighbor's buying the stock" isn't sufficient. The exercise is designed to be a check on irrational and impulsive decision-making, and requires the investor to make a strategic or fundamental argument for investing in the stock.
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You don't have to invest like Buffett Buffett's guidelines are best applied to investors who have a similar sensibility, who prefer value over growth investing, and like to invest in established industries and business models, rather than chasing riskier investments like IPOs and tech stocks.
Buffett is right that IPOs are risky and have a track record of underperforming, but that doesn't mean that every one is a loser, as many of the best-performing stocks of all-time have started out as IPOs, including Tesla, the other public company run by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
The Berkshire chairman has expressed admiration for Musk, calling him "brilliant" and saying that he achieved the "impossible" by taking on the Detroit automakers and winning.
SpaceX is a unique company with long-term goals, including colonizing Mars, that investors have never seen before. If it can accomplish even half of those bold goals, the stock could rise several times over a long enough time period, though its current valuation bakes in high expectations.
It's easy to see why a stock like SpaceX wouldn't be for Buffett. It's unprofitable, high-risk, and trades at a sky-high valuation. Buffett would never buy it, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bad investment.
After all, the Berkshire leader has lamented missing out on past big tech winners like Amazon and Alphabet.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.00%) is experiencing a bumpy ride in its post-IPO takeoff. After a three-day winning streak from its public market debut, SpaceX's stock has fallen 30% from its intraday high. As of this writing on June 24, it trades below its closing price from the first day of trading.
Investors who missed out on the stock's early trading days are now being given another chance. But readers should consider why the stock has fallen so sharply and whether it could keep dropping from here.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is it time to buy SpaceX? SpaceX is a unique company, and that makes it extremely difficult to value. Its businesses are incredibly speculative, based on technology that's, for the most part, still in the developmental stage. Starlink, its satellite internet service, is the exception as it's already generating meaningful revenue. Otherwise, the company's growth thesis depends on far more speculative ventures.
While SpaceX is home to xAI, which develops the Grok large language model, the business has seen a sharp shift in strategy. As it struggles to gain traction with its artificial intelligence service, xAI is now focused on signing contracts to sell excess compute infrastructure. It's made large deals with Anthropic and Alphabet so far. But that business model puts additional pressure on SpaceX's ability to deploy AI servers at low cost.
Management sees orbital data centers as a path toward cost advantage for AI compute. But that advantage relies on successfully launching and scaling Starship, its super-heavy, fully reusable rocket.
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To that end, the company just announced a $25 billion bond offering, despite having raised $86 billion in its IPO. Management said it has $100 billion on its balance sheet already. Most countries have smaller cash reserves.
That could be a sign that Starship requires significantly more development before it's ready for commercial use. Management said in its IPO registration filing that it expects Starship to start payload delivery to orbit in the second half of this year.
Overall, the path to profitable revenue growth remains highly uncertain, which means SpaceX investors are likely to experience significant volatility from here. Those who expect successful Starship launches in the near term may be able to stomach that volatility. But a couple of factors could continue to weigh on the stock over the next year or so.
Don't discount these two important factors The first consideration for investors is valuation. Even if the potential for SpaceX's revenue is absolutely massive, valuation based on foreseeable revenue and earnings is still important to consider. Today's stock price represents a price-to-sales ratio above 100.
The reason valuation is so important is that it reflects the very high expectations for revenue growth over the next few years. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley see revenue reaching $470 billion and $330 billion, respectively, by 2030. Elon Musk said in a since-deleted post on X that he thinks the company could reach $1 trillion in revenue that year. Any setbacks or shortfalls in those sky-high (and varied) expectations could lead to severe drops in the stock price. And there seems to be more downside risk at this point than upside potential.
The second factor that could weigh on the stock over the next year is the lockup expiration. SpaceX sold only about 4% of the company's stock in its IPO. As more stock becomes available to trade, early investors will look to sell and take profits, putting pressure on the stock price.
Investors interested in SpaceX may want to wait on the sidelines and let some of the dust settle on the IPO before buying. Even after the stock's pullback from its stellar debut, it still looks expensive, with significant downside risk and several warning signs.
ToplineOpenAI is now leaning toward delaying its public debut from later this year to next year, unnamed sources told The New York Times, as Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock tumbles after its record IPO and the public tech market slumps more broadly.
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 3: CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman talks to reporters following a meeting with Senator Bernie Sanders at the Dirksen Senate Office building in Washington, DC on June 3, 2026. (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
Key FactsOpenAI hired bankers and lawyers eyeing an initial public offering as early as the third or fourth quarter of this year, with CEO Sam Altman pushing them to engineer a $1 trillion valuation, the Times reported, citing three people involved in the talks.
Over the past week, OpenAI’s advisers have cautioned the company that a public listing may not be met with enough enthusiasm due to the volatile public tech market, per the report.
When advisers offered a choice between waiting until 2027 for a $1 trillion debut or accepting a lower valuation for a faster one, Altman called any cut to the trillion-dollar figure a "nonstarter," one person in contact with him told the Times.
OpenAI confirmed earlier this month it had filed confidential paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission to go public but had not committed to a timeline, with the Wall Street Journal previously reporting the company planned to list as early as September.
There has been internal hesitation about the public debut since before the confidential filing, the Times reported, with employees including chief financial officer Sarah Friar expressing concern on the company's finances this year, according to the Journal.
big number$852 billion. That’s OpenAI’s most recent valuation. The company reported roughly $13 billion in revenue last year on $21 billion in net loss, with $600 billion in projected spending on compute and hardware until 2030. Amid growing doubts about whether AI companies can turn a profit, the company is now hunting for new revenue, experimenting with ads inside ChatGPT and e-commerce tie-ups with Shopify and Stripe, while paring back money-losing ventures including its Sora video app.
key backgroundOpenAI’s hesitation comes amid a crowded 2026 IPO pipeline that has drawn many of tech’s most valuable private companies, including the company’s chief rival Anthropic and SpaceX. Anthropic confidentially filed on June 1 for its reported late 2026 public debut—a week before OpenAI announced it had filed confidentially. Anthropic raised funding at a $965 billion valuation in late May, overtaking OpenAI’s private valuation for the first time. SpaceX was the first of the crop to go public on June 12. Its debut raised more than $85 billion, sending the company’s valuation to $2.77 trillion and Musk’s net worth to as high as $1.4 trillion. The stock has plummeted since, closing at $153 on Thursday after topping $225 last week, and Musk has lost his trillionaire status. The broader markets have been shaky, with tech shares dragging down indexes as investors question whether AI companies can deliver on their valuations. Beyond the AI names, a wave of tech companies including Strava, Discord, Kraken and smart-ring maker Oura filed confidentially earlier this year.
tangentThe SpaceX IPO landed less than a month after two of OpenAI’s cofounders, Altman and Musk, took their long-running feud to the courtroom. A federal jury in Oakland, California, ruled against Musk on May 18, finding he waited too long to sue Altman and OpenAI over claims they violated an alleged promise to keep the company a charitable nonprofit. The jury found the claims fell outside a three-year statute of limitations. Musk, who first filed the suit in 2024, dismissed the decision on X as a "calendar technicality" and vowed to appeal, though Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers signaled deep skepticism, saying she was prepared to dismiss any appeal. The verdict cleared a legal cloud hanging over OpenAI's restructuring right as both magnates were steering their companies toward the public market.
Explosive growth in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving an expanding need for specialized computing resources, and traditional cloud infrastructure providers are struggling to supply those resources in sufficient quantity. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.00%) -- which is best known for its reusable rockets and its Starlink satellite network -- is aggressively expanding beyond the aerospace sector and into the world of accelerated computing capacity.
Through a series of targeted investments and strategic partnerships, SpaceX (as the company is known) is positioning itself to supply access to high-performance GPU clusters, and building a foothold in the neocloud economy.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Why neoclouds are important for AI Neoclouds are specialized data centers built around dense clusters of GPUs -- largely Nvidia's industry-leading processors -- rather than general-purpose servers. They streamline access to the huge parallel-processing power that's required for AI training and inference, sparing their clients the capital outlays of building and operating their own data center infrastructure. By specifically optimizing their clusters to handle AI workloads, neoclouds help accelerate model development and lower barriers to entry for smaller research teams. This is particularly useful now as there are a host of bottlenecks limiting the pace at which new data centers can be brought online.
Image source: Getty Images.
How SpaceX is expanding its role in AI infrastructure Over the last year, SpaceX deployed meaningful capital into AI infrastructure, buying substantial quantities of Nvidia GPUs. The company has since inked agreements to supply AI infrastructure capacity to prominent clients such as Anthropic, Alphabet's Google Cloud, and Reflection AI. The total value of those three contracts could be about $82 billion over the next three years.
By leasing some of its capacity to external customers, SpaceX is leveraging its large-scale Colossus computing system to create a new revenue stream while simultaneously helping to address the same capacity constraints that are fueling the rise of dedicated AI cloud providers like Nebius Group and CoreWeave.
How will AI affect SpaceX's long-term direction? The entry of SpaceX into the neocloud field means fresh competition for the established players. Its added capacity could help alleviate the market's shortages and exert downward pressure on pricing. That might benefit the hyperscalers even as it compresses profit margins for existing providers.
With that said, the AI compute market is expanding so rapidly that bringing additional capacity into the marketplace does not necessarily threaten to sap business from the incumbents. Rather, SpaceX is proving it can coexist alongside them.
Rather than a full business model pivot, SpaceX appears to be layering its AI infrastructure segment onto its existing space-focused core operation. In the long run, this will help give it a diversified business model -- one that keeps revolving around orbital technology while also generating meaningful revenues from the terrestrial boom in AI demand.
People remove rubble from a damaged house after two strong earthquakes, in Moron, Venezuela, June 25, 2026. REUTERS/Juan Carlos Hernandez Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesJune 25 (Reuters) - Starlink, the satellite internet unit of Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab, said on Thursday it will provide free services to its users in Venezuela for a month, after two earthquakes hit the South American nation.
The company is also working to "rapidly deploy Starlink terminals and restore connectivity to the hardest-hit areas," Starlink said on X.
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Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Mexico City
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Wall Street analysts are already offering their opinions on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.00%), with one firm forecasting 50% upside. Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan, who already had a buy rating on SpaceX before its IPO, recently upped his price target from $190 to $250.
Horan praised the company's vertical integration, saying it can disrupt a lot of different industries. One of those businesses is the wireless industry, with the analyst noting that the mobile market for Starlink could eventually become bigger than its satellite internet offering. He's bullish on that business as well, believing it could increase its capacity to serve hundreds of millions of customers.
He noted that if Elon Musk's prediction of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 is anywhere close, SpaceX could be a $10 trillion company. Horan did say that Musk's Terafab chip foundry and Starship rocket are ambitious projects that carry risk, but that SpaceX and Musk are great at these very ambitious projects.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Taking the under on SpaceX While Oppenheimer is bullish on SpaceX, I put myself firmly in the skeptical camp. I'd classify Musk's track record of delivering big projects as much more spotty than great, and there is plenty of evidence to back that up. In fact, The New York Times analyzed 600 of his claims over the past 15 years, and only 19% were completed on time, and his annual rate of success has been on the decline.
While Starlink is a nice business, it's also a capital-intensive business, and not one worth anywhere close to $1 trillion in my view. It also isn't likely to disrupt the mobile market, given the current infrastructure and spectrum in place, better indoor coverage, lower costs, and greater capacity in cities and suburbs. Instead, it could be a nice complement in rural areas, airplanes, cruise ships, and some enterprise applications.
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Building a huge foundry to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also seems like a long-shot bet. TSMC is a virtual monopoly for a reason, and even Nvidia's CEO said the project is "almost impossible." Meanwhile, data centers in space face several challenges, including developing cooling systems that work in space, designing chips that withstand cosmic radiation, and creating robots to build and assemble a data center in orbit.
At the end of the day, SpaceX generated less than $19 billion in revenue last year, but has a market cap of around $2 trillion. Its valuation is just based on a bunch of what-ifs from a CEO with a spotty track record. I'm taking the under and don't think SpaceX will come remotely close to hitting $1 trillion in revenue in the next few years.
Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and The New York Times Co. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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After a splashy public offering immediately followed by impressive gains, shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.25%) -- or SpaceX -- are already tumbling. Good. While it's a miserable outcome for anyone who bought in after shares began publicly trading on a stock exchange, the pullback says people aren't simply buying into the hype. They're giving some thought to the ticker's current and future value.
To this end, what's going to be the biggest driver of this stock's future price? Probably not the business you think.
Image source: Getty Images.
The future is likely to look different than the present You know it best as a maker of rockets that power its orbital launch arm. Heck, it's in the name.
That's not SpaceX's biggest business, though. It's not even its second-biggest business. SpaceX's top breadwinner right now is satellite-based internet service provider (ISP) Starlink, which drove $11.4 billion of last year's companywide revenue of $14 billion, turning $4.4 billion of that into net income. Space launch was a distant second with its 2025 top-line figure of only $4.1 billion, while its artificial intelligence (AI) arm wasn't too far behind that at $3.2 billion in sales. AI and launch services also remain in the red for the time being.
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These aren't necessarily the proportions SpaceX expects from these arms in the future. Indeed, the company believes its namesake orbital launch service will eventually be one of its least important profit centers.
It's true! Within the company's pre-IPO prospectus, SpaceX laid out its expectations for the future of each core market it serves. Although without any specific time frame attached, the company believes the space and launch industry will eventually be worth $370 billion per year, while the connectivity market that Starlink serves will eventually be worth a total of $1.6 trillion.
The proverbial big kahuna, however, is enterprise-level artificial intelligence applications. SpaceX expects this global business to be worth $26.5 trillion per year at some point in the foreseeable future.
Yes, that's trillion, with a "T."
Not everyone is as optimistic As outrageous as this projection seems to be on the surface, it's not necessarily miles beyond the pale. For perspective, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the planet's annual GDP currently stands at more than $120 trillion. If AI ends up integrating its way into as many slivers of the world as some have suggested (ranging from medicine to logistics to energy management to banking, and more), it's conceivable that the AI business could grow to a massive proportion even compared to its size today.
Do take this optimistic outlook with a huge grain of salt, however. SpaceX hasn't exactly explained how the entire AI industry is going to reach that mark. The United Nations' trade & development outlook suggests the global AI business will only be worth $4.8 trillion by 2033, and that's a relatively bold outlook. Most projections are even smaller, like Polaris Market Research's belief that the worldwide AI market will only reach the $3.6 trillion mark by that point in time.
Connect the dots. Something's got to give unless there's something SpaceX's management has in mind that the rest of the world just doesn't see coming. Never say never.
This lack of clarity is, of course, a big reason this initially red-hot ticker is suddenly selling off.
Just stay level-headed ... and patient There's the rub. Investors should care the most about SpaceX's AI ambitions. The bulk of the stock's steep valuation is rooted in the company's jaw-dropping expectations for just how big the market is going to get even if SpaceX doesn't end up winning the majority of the industry's future growth. At $26.5 trillion, there's still plenty of revenue to go around for everyone in the business.
In reality, however, it's conceivable that Starlink's connectivity could quietly end up as this company's actual breadwinner. Estimates from Precedence Research put the current size of the worldwide telecom market at just over $2 trillion, en route to $3.4 trillion by 2035.
Obviously, Starlink isn't the only name in the business; AST SpaceMobile is another American satellite-based broadband contender. However, Starlink does bring a competitive distinction to the table; it's got a solid head start on everyone else vying to penetrate this market, with over 10,000 satellites already in orbit serving over 12 million paying customers. It's aiming for 25 million subscribers by the end of this year, and eventually, more than 40,000 satellites.
Of course, there's nothing to prevent these two distinct businesses from being equally important to investors.
Just don't focus on the wrong thing at the wrong time. The echoes of SpaceX's well-ballyhooed IPO are still ringing, wreaking havoc on the stock. There's likely to be plenty more post-IPO volatility to wring out before the market actually starts pricing in the value of its underlying businesses. You can certainly leave SPCX on your watchlist in the meantime, though.
The SpaceX Starship, the most powerful and advanced rocket and capsule ever designed on this planet, could spark an explosion in space tourism and supercharge Space Race II. (Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
While SpaceX sketched out only scant details of its masterplan to expand spaceflight for independent astronauts in its IPO prospectus, a world-leading space scholar says its Starship super-capsule holds the potential to generate a pool of “tens of millions” of space tourists at the right price point.
Across the IPO presentation, SpaceX’s leaders outlined blueprints for fantastical flights of the future, stretching from rocket-powered “point-to-point” Starship jaunts between New York and Paris, or L.A. and Tokyo, in under 40 minutes, to chartered missions circling the planet.
Many of these intercontinental city-to-city flights might also be considered space treks, because the Starship is likely to fly above the internationally recognized boundary of space at 100 kilometers above the Earth, says Brian Hurley, founder of the globally influential think tank New Space Economy.
“If the flight crossed the 100-kilometer Kármán line,” Hurley told me in an interview, all of its passengers and pilots would be recognized worldwide as astronauts.
SpaceX commander-in-chief Elon Musk says flying on the Starship on intercontinental flights will be like riding on "an ICBM traveling at Mach 25 that lands.” Shown here is the first American ICBM surreally exhibited at the Coney Island amusement park in New York City during the dawn of the first Space Race and Cold War I. (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
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These suborbital flights, echoing the trajectory of the first star American astronaut to fly into space during the dawn of the superpower Space Race I, would similarly transform these modern-day voyagers into new constellations of spacefarers joining the egalitarian Space Race II.
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“Starship point-to-point is ultra-fast suborbital transport, on long routes it may cross 100 kilometers,” speeding across the final frontier into space, says Hurley, who chronicles the rising independent space powers worldwide and their technological breakthroughs.
So far, SpaceX founder Elon Musk and President Gwynne Shotwell have only issued amorphous hints on projected fares for these transnational Starship treks, predicting they could ultimately cost less than first-class tickets for jet flights between the same two cities.
That would be just a fraction of the rates charged by the current twin titans of suborbital spaceflights, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic, which price each ticket aboard their spacecraft at hundreds of thousands of dollars, Hurley says.
Test flight of Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, which has sped independent spacefarers above the 100-kilometer "border" of space. (Photo by Mark Greenberg/Virgin Galactic/Getty Images)
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In a fascinating chronicle on the suborbital space tourism sector, and its alternative futures, that his think tank published, scholar Hurley says: “The price of a suborbital ticket is the single most discussed barrier to market expansion.”
“At current prices of $200,000 to $600,000 or more, the addressable market is limited to ultra-high-net-worth individuals.”
“As of mid-2025,” he adds, “there are approximately 510,810 ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally, defined as those with a net worth exceeding $30 million.”
But if a new upstart contender, like SpaceX, were to introduce fantastically slashed prices for suborbital sojourns, he predicts, that could lead to the rapid and radical democratization of spaceflight.
"A 90% reduction to the $40,000-$60,000 range would place a suborbital flight in the same cost category as a luxury cruise, a business-class international trip, or a high-end bucket-list vacation.”
“The addressable population [of prospective flyers],” Hurley says, “expands enormously, potentially to tens of millions of affluent consumers globally.”
“SpaceX’s Starship, with its potential for carrying many more passengers per flight, could theoretically approach this range.”
SpaceX’s commanders state in their share offering manifesto: “We plan to develop ultra-fast long-haul point-to-point Earth transport using Starship, enabling passengers and cargo to travel between major cities in a fraction of current transit times, revolutionizing global logistics and passenger travel with unprecedented speed and efficiency.”
SpaceX aims for its Starship to speed adventurers across the continents on rocket-powered treks lasting less than one hour. (Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
“With meaningful advances in space technology,” they add, “we expect increasing interest in human space travel as it becomes easier and more common to access space.”
“In addition to the markets we serve today, we believe we are poised to catalyze transformative breakthroughs and create entirely new markets.”
“Over time each of these markets could eventually represent multi-trillion-dollar economic opportunities.”
While Starship could initially be deployed for city-to-city excursions and planet-circling space expeditions, the longer-range target is for routine “passenger and cargo transportation to the Moon and Mars.”
In a preview of Starship flights set to crisscross the continents, Elon Musk said in a post on the messaging platform Twitter (now X): “Most flights would only be 15 to 20 mins. It’s basically an ICBM traveling at Mach 25 that lands.”
These flights, with their remarkable G-force of acceleration on take-off, he added, would resemble “Disney’s Space Mountain roller coaster.”
“Would feel similar to Space Mountain in a lot of ways, but you’d exit on another continent.”
SpaceX is already counting down to collaborating with NASA to convert some of its colossal Starship capsules, which are designed to host 100 spacefarers each, into space stations that would ring the globe and provide alternative spaceflight destinations when the International Space Station is decommissioned in the 2030s.
Starship orbital stations could provide alternative destinations for Allied and independent astronauts when the International Space Station is decommissioned in the 2030s. (Photo by NASA/Space Frontiers/Getty Images)
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Along with a half-dozen other leading-edge American space outfits including Blue Origin, Axiom Space and Starlab Space, SpaceX has signed a Space Act Agreement with NASA to develop orbital outposts that could host NASA and Allied astronauts through the next decades.
Under this agreement, NASA envisions SpaceX deploying “Starship as a transportation and in-space low Earth orbit destination."
Even as it test-flies its twin-stage Starship, the most powerful and advanced rocket and human-rated capsule ever designed on this planet, SpaceX has built a Titan-size Starfactory set to produce and perfect 1000 Starships every year, partly to launch the 10,000 ships that Musk has proclaimed will be deployed to speed one million inter-world nomads to Mars by the mid-century.
Brian Hurley predicts, meanwhile, that as more independent astronauts from around the world begin occupying the orbital rings closest to Earth, SpaceX could move to connect up small flotillas of Starships into larger interlinked clusters.
“Docking Starships together could eventually create something that resembles an orbital village,” he told me.
The next stage in the space race redux might focus on opening the lunar frontier to independent space trekkers, with a Starship space station orbiting the black and silver sphere as an astronaut observatory on the meteor-strike-created craters below.
NASA has already commissioned SpaceX, with twin contracts worth $4 billion-plus, to shuttle its astronauts from lunar orbit down to the Moon’s South Pole region, with a precursor robotically piloted demo mission slated for 2028.
With its 1000 cubic meters of pressurized living space, massive bands of observation windows, and interspersed suites and galleries, the first demo Starship to land on the lunar surface could be rechristened as Hotel MoonX. (Photo by Space Frontiers/Getty Images)
Getty Images
With its 1000 cubic meters of pressurized living space - more than double that of the International Space Station - massive bands of observation windows wrapped across the upper decks, solar storm shelters and interspersed suites and galleries, this first demo Starship could be permanently stationed near the Pole, rechristened as the silver globe’s first Hotel MoonX.
Radiating as humanity’s first super-lighthouse on the Moon, this SpaceX beacon will likely attract a United Nations-like mix of adventurers spearheading the next stage of the new-millennium revolution in space exploration.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.62%), better known as SpaceX, has officially hit the market, and now that at least some of the hype has settled, many investors are wondering what it might mean for their index funds and ETFs.
While SpaceX is not yet included in the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.14%) for now, that could change. For those investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.11%), here's what that might mean for your investment.
Image source: Getty Images.
When is SpaceX coming to the S&P 500? Whether a particular ETF includes SpaceX depends on its underlying index. The stock recently joined the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, for example, which tracks the CRSP U.S. Total Stock Market Index and allows new stocks to enter after just five trading days.
SpaceX is also expected to soon join Invesco QQQ after the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.69%) changed its rules to allow fast entry into the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days.
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The S&P 500 is a little different, though, and has more rigorous entry requirements. Stocks must have been trading for at least 12 months before they become eligible to join, at which point they'll also need to pass a profitability screen. The absolute earliest SpaceX can enter the index is mid-2027, but that assumes the company is consistently profitable by then.
SpaceX incurred $4.94 billion in net losses in 2025, according to its S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and its AI segment is particularly unprofitable. A rumored merger with Tesla could complicate matters further, so at this point, it's anyone's guess where SpaceX might be financially in a year or two.
Is it still safe to invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF? The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is generally still a safe investment, but whether you want to continue investing going forward will depend on your personal preferences.
The S&P 500 itself has become much more tech-heavy in recent years. Technology and communication services stocks make up nearly 50% of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks account for more than one-third of the S&P 500's overall value as of June 2026.
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If tech stocks still have plenty of growth potential ahead, the S&P 500 could benefit from this tilt toward tech. But many investors choose the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF for its stability, and tech stocks are notoriously volatile. With more mega-cap IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic potentially joining the index in the coming years, it could lead to even more intense price swings.
There are still plenty of unknowns around SpaceX, but it will likely pop up in more ETFs over time. By determining your risk tolerance now, it will be easier to decide whether the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF remains a good fit for you if or when SpaceX eventually joins.
SummaryCompaniesSpaceX plans to start building 8-mile pipeline next monthProject would fuel more launches of Starship moon rocketPipeline is part of sprawling SpaceX gas plans in TexasWASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab plans to begin next month building an eight‑mile (13-km) natural gas pipeline called "Starpipe" to its Texas launch facilities, according to county filings, as Elon Musk’s company seeks to ramp up launches of its next‑generation Starship rocket.
Starpipe, which will end at SpaceX’s Texas company town of Starbase, is expected to be in service by January 26, according to a document filed last month with the Texas Railroad Commission by SpaceX affiliate Lone Star Mineral Development and reviewed by Reuters.
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The pipeline plan, previously reported by Rio Grande Valley Business Journal, signals Musk's intent to accelerate Starship's development and lay the groundwork for a faster flight rate. The 40‑story rocket is central to SpaceX’s push to expand its Starlink broadband network, deploy orbital AI data center satellites, and eventually carry astronauts to the moon and Mars.
Designed to be fully reusable, Starship uses about 630,000 gallons (2.4 million liters) of liquid methane per launch, currently delivered by hundreds of tanker trucks in an hours-long process incompatible with Musk's expansion plans. Starship has completed 12 test launches since 2023, but Musk aims to ramp up to dozens, hundreds and eventually thousands of launches a year.
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX'S BIG GAS PLANSThough it is unusual for a space company to build its own natural gas pipeline for launchpad fuel, Starpipe might only be an initial step in a longer-term plan for SpaceX, which has spent years exploring its own drilling operations near Starbase and throughout Texas, according to a Reuters review of Cameron County land records.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on June 12, when the company went public, that the company planned to build pipelines and process its own propellant, and was looking into drilling its own natural gas.
Extracting natural gas would be a challenging pursuit for a company with no oil and gas experience, said Stan Lindsey, an oil and gas consultant in Texas.
“I’m not saying it's beyond the realm of possibility … it’s possible they got a really nice prospect," Lindsey said. But if those drilling plans fall short, he added, “they’ve got a fallback position” with Starpipe.
SpaceX has signed over 100 paid-up oil and gas leases with Texas property owners since 2023, the land records show.
Starpipe would begin on an 83-acre (34-hectare) piece of land at the Port of Brownsville that SpaceX is in talks to lease from the city for 50 years, a port official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.
Engineering plans SpaceX filed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included in a public notice issued last August, show SpaceX wants to build a liquefaction facility at Starbase to process the piped-in natural gas into liquid methane.
"Certainly that would make the most efficient sense," said William Farrar, a longtime oil and gas lawyer in Texas and geoscientist.
The company could tap into Enbridge's Valley Crossing Pipeline expansion project that would run close to Starpipe's start point, Lindsey said.
Enbridge did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SPACEX WANTS TO OWN SUPPLY CHAINSpaceX's move into gas infrastructure, typically the domain of energy and pipeline firms, underscores its longstanding strategy of controlling as much of its supply chain as possible, a capital‑intensive approach that has helped the company outpace rivals in rocket and spacecraft development.
The effort positions SpaceX to manage an unusually broad chain of resources, stretching from natural gas deep beneath Earth's surface to the moon, where Musk wants to use lunar material for AI‑focused satellite production, an ambitious and untested goal.
The pipeline’s 16‑inch (406-mm) diameter suggests fuel demand exceeding what Starship would require for 25 launches, the annual cadence currently approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.
SpaceX ultimately aims to deploy thousands of solar‑powered, AI‑focused satellites whose combined energy output could approach one-fifth of the U.S. power grid, according to its initial public offering prospectus.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Joe Brock and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseInvestors seem to be having second thoughts about the lofty valuations in the sector, an analyst saysPublished: June 25, 2026 at 3:28 p.m. ET
Stocks in the space sector are deepening their declines on Thursday as the SpaceX halo fades further.
At least four space stocks — the space-exploration firm Virgin Galactic SPCE, satellite firm Redwire RDW, space-infrastructure firm Intuitive Machines LUNR and the in-space transit company Momentus MNTS — have recorded 50% drops so far in June, based on FactSet data. Several others, including Planet Labs PL and Firefly Aerospace FLY, are down 40% or more for the month as of Thursday afternoon.
The SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) short volume ratio has been steadily climbing since the first day in the stock market, June 12, and hit its fourth consecutive and latest all-time high (ATH) of 68.72 on Wednesday, June 24.
Indeed, just after the IPO, the figure stood at a relatively low 33.72 and began a steady climb to 46.22 on the third trading day before slightly retracing to 45.71 on June 17 – shortly after SPCX shares recorded their intraday ATH price of $225.64 and the company’s valuation soared to just under $3 trillion.
SpaceX stock daily short volume ratio. Source: Fintel Simultaneously, SpaceX stock continued its plunge toward its initial opening price of $150 on the day, and is, based on the movements in the opening hour of the Thursday session, in danger of recording a new all-time low.
SpaceX stock price performance Indeed, after the IPO was conducted at $135 per share, the equity started trading at $150 on June 12 and ended the day at $160.95. In subsequent sessions, SPCX soared to the $225.64 ATH and the ATH closing price of $211.39, but then sharply retraced.
At press time on Thursday, June 25, SpaceX stock is changing hands at $152.46, meaning it started the session with a 1.35% loss relative to the previous close and, notably, reversed a brief recovery in the pre-market.
SpaceX stock price one-day chart. Source: Google Why SpaceX stock is set for a rally in July and August Looking ahead, it appears likely that SPCX shares will enjoy another rally later in the summer.
The exceptionally high IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion has made it all but impossible for SpaceX not to meet the criteria for fast-track inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 in a move guaranteed to trigger significant automatic buying from index funds.
Furthermore, the earnings report for the calendar second quarter (Q2) also appears poised to generate tailwinds. Regardless of SpaceX’s other divisions’ performance, Elon Musk’s newer public company has been developing its neocloud business with partnerships with artificial intelligence (AI) giants such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Anthropic.
The latter of the two could be particularly significant.
According to SpaceX’s S-1 filing, it offered a discount to the AI company for the duration of Q2 as part of a ramp-up period, meaning that it will, on the one hand, probably be able to record some revenue from the agreement, and, on the other, will be able to predictably raise its revenue forecast for Q3 once the full price of just over $1 billion starts getting levied.
Elsewhere, industry skeptics such as Ed Zitron speculated that the initial discount is part of the reason why Anthopic was able to claim likely profitability during Q2, but not for later in the year.
Could SpaceX stock price plummet to new lows before 2027? Long-term, SpaceX stock’s performance becomes significantly more uncertain. Various banking giants and Elon Musk himself estimated the company’s revenue would reach sufficiently high – up to $1 trillion by 2030 and over $3 trillion by 2040 – to justify the high valuation.
On the bearish side, the firm’s revenue during Q1 was roughly forty times smaller than Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) – SpaceX briefly overtook Amazon in terms of market capitalization earlier in June – and the company was operating at a loss.
Lastly, the insider lockup-structure – and the unlock timetable, to be more precise – is itself likely to generate substantial selling pressure by the end of 2026.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 1.88%) is in the spotlight for all the right reasons. It just completed the largest initial public offering in history, having raised $75 billion by offering 555 million shares at $135 each plus another $10.7 billion from the underwriters that exercised their options to buy more shares. However, the number of shares available for public trading is still tiny relative to SpaceX's over $2 trillion market cap.
The company's float could increase to as much as 37% in late August. But until then, there's a supply-demand crunch on the stock, which is contributing to its volatility. SpaceX is already down big from its intraday high of $225.64, although as of the close of trading Tuesday, it was still up 4% from its initial trading price of $150 per share.
While long-term investors may not appreciate the volatility or the financial engineering of SpaceX's public market debut, they may be intrigued by the company's bold plans to launch millions of artificial intelligence (AI) data center satellites into orbit.
Here's why SpaceX is betting big on orbital data centers, and if the growth stock is a great buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A different type of SpaceX satellite SpaceX isn't profitable, but it has multiple levers that it could pull to unlock growth over the next several decades and beyond. It conducted around 80% of U.S. space launches in 2025 and exited that year with 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit. It owns xAI, the social media platform X, and could deploy millions of AI compute satellites -- which SpaceX says would actually be easier to manufacture than Starlink satellites because they won't need to have complex antennas.
The company's first AI satellite design features a 70-meter wingspan and a deployed height of 20 meters. By comparison, the majority of Starlink satellites in orbit are second-generation V2 Mini satellites, which are just 4.1 meters by 2.7 meters. The bigger issue is the added payload weight: AI satellites' compute clusters will have a lot of mass, making them significantly more expensive to launch.
Additionally, SpaceX plans to launch its AI compute satellites into a higher-altitude sun-synchronous orbit. This will make solar power generation predictable. However, it will also make the massive AI satellites more visible at night than most Starlink satellites.
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Satellite manufacturing on an unprecedented scale SpaceX says it aims to have 1 gigawatt (GW) of AI compute satellites in orbit by the end of 2027, then scale that by an order of magnitude in the subsequent three years, reaching 10 GW by the end of 2028, 100 GW by the end of 2029, and 1 terawatt (1,000 GW) by the end of 2030. At a peak output of 150 kW per satellite based on its AI1 satellite design, that would mean 6,667 satellites at 1 GW, 66,667 satellites at 10 GW, 666,667 satellites at 100 GW, and then a mind-numbing 6.67 million satellites at 1 terawatt. To describe that as ambitious would be an understatement.
To get there, SpaceX is building a more than 11-million-square-foot factory it has dubbed "Gigasat" in Bastrop, Texas, which is just outside Austin. Situated on a more than 1,000-acre site, that factory will handle end-to-end production of AI compute satellites, from the solar panels that will power them to the electronic components and satellite assembly.
Tesla (TSLA 0.45%) investors will be familiar with CEO Elon Musk's preference for vertically integrated manufacturing. Expanding beyond its Fremont, California, factory to large-scale production centers (Gigafactories) in Nevada, New York, Texas, Shanghai, and Germany was an integral part of the strategy that allowed Tesla to grow into a major global automaker. However, Tesla was expanding production while facing the scrutiny that all public companies must accept. Plus, it was capital-constrained and relied heavily on scaling up its Model 3 production to boost cash flow and fund its manufacturing expansion.
SpaceX has a massive advantage in that it is already worth more than Tesla and should have no problem turning to capital markets to raise capital, whether by issuing debt or selling more equity. SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025, yet the market doesn't seem to care, given its growth potential.
In sum, Tesla was consistently trying to prove to public markets that electric vehicles could be profitable and disrupt the automotive industry, whereas SpaceX has a first-mover advantage in a new niche of the data center market where it faces virtually no direct competitors.
AI satellite constellations are far from a sure bet Investors are giving SpaceX the green light to think big on a cosmic scale. Investors buying SpaceX today probably care way more about its timeline for launching AI compute satellites into space rather than the costs of its path to profitability.
But SpaceX will undoubtedly run into challenges along the way to deploying its constellation of satellites. And as the quarters tick by, investor patience could be tested -- especially during market sell-offs or if there's a slowdown in AI spending.
All told, there's no rush to buy SpaceX right now, at a time when sentiment is overwhelmingly positive and investor enthusiasm is through the roof. The better approach would be to keep SpaceX on your watch list and monitor its progress on constructing Gigasat and getting its first AI satellites launched into space. If its big idea pays off, SpaceX will deserve to be worth much more than it is today. But at this time, that's a big "if."
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKLB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
