Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.02%) debuted to the public, giving the average retail investor their first opportunity to directly own a piece of the company. While shares opened at $150 that day, many investors had difficulty filling their initial orders, according to a CNBC report.

By June 16, the SpaceX stock price had shot up to $225.64 per share before closing that day at $211.39. After that, however, it may have felt like a roller-coaster ride for anyone who has held on to their shares. As the excitement from the initial public offering wore off, the stock price closed at $108.27 on Aug. 5.

Since then, however, the stock price rallied back, closing at $151.21 on Sept. 11, basically right back to where it started on June 12. As for where SpaceX's stock price may head next, investors can review analyst price targets. While those forecasts are not a guarantee of future stock prices, they can offer guidance for an investment decision, highlighting whether the risk may be worth the reward.

Image source: Getty Images.

The bear case for SpaceX According to CNN, of the 41 analysts who cover SpaceX, 76% rate it a buy, 17% rate it a hold, and 7% a sell. From that group, the lowest price target over the next 12 months is $75.

We'll use the Sept. 11 closing price of $151.21 to determine what a $5,000 investment would be worth if shares sank that low. At that price, $5,000 would yield an investor a little more than 33 shares through fractional investing. If, by September 2027, the SpaceX stock price were to trade at $75, that $5,000 investment would be worth approximately $2,479.

There are a few factors that could send shares that low, ranging from a broad market sell-off or a sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to worrisome performances in SpaceX's next few earnings reports. SpaceX is still a money-losing company, having just reported in its 2026 second-quarter earnings report that it lost $541 million. While that was better than its $1 billion net loss in the prior-year period, it was still a loss.

In addition, SpaceX continues to spend heavily, particularly on its AI division. In 2025, SpaceX spent $12.7 billion on its AI unit, $4.1 billion on its connectivity segment, and $3.8 billion on its space division. In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX's capital expenditures totaled $18.3 billion, with its AI segment accounting for $15.8 billion of that total.

The middle ground The highest price target included from that group of 41 analysts is $800. Since that's more likely to be a target years out than in the next 12 months, I'm going to exclude it from this hypothetical investment scenario.

That said, the median price target still indicates there could be meaningful upside over the next 12 months.

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The median one-year price target from the group is $217, representing a potential gain of 43.5% from the Sept. 11 closing price of $151.21. Going back to that original investment, if shares climbed to $217, that $5,000 investment would be worth $7,174.

For the SpaceX stock price to reach that level, a few good earnings reports and progress on its AI ambitions could help fuel a higher price.

The company has progress to build on from its earnings report for the second quarter of 2026, as CNBC reported that revenue of $7.8 billion handily exceeded expectations of $6.9 billion. Its AI, connectivity, and space divisions all beat individual expectations for each unit. And while its AI and space divisions are unprofitable, the connectivity division reported operating income of $1.6 billion.

Going back to its AI division, SpaceX could also generate investor enthusiasm with updates on progress toward its orbital data centers, as well as generating new deals to rent compute capacity to other tech players. It has deals with both Anthropic and Alphabet, under which those companies are renting compute capacity from its data centers. Combined, those deals could be worth $26 billion annually.

In addition, it has a similar deal with Reflection AI, which is renting out compute capacity from SpaceX for $150 million per month. If the deal runs through its entirety, it could generate a total of $6.3 billion for SpaceX. Given that the company generated $18.7 billion in sales in 2025, the revenue from these compute capacity deals is notable.

Putting everything together Based on how SpaceX has traded thus far and analysts' targets over the next 12 months, the picture suggests a stock price that's likely to remain volatile. While the median price target shows potential gains of roughly 43%, the lowest price target shows a potential loss of 50%.

That makes investing in SpaceX still best suited to aggressive investors who understand the risks but believe the long-term upside could outweigh the downside.

The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.02%) initial public offering (IPO) was record-setting, raising $75 billion from investors. Add in the underwriters' overallotment, and the total balloons to over $85 billion. That's a big draw for other closely followed private companies, such as Anthropic, as it suggests they could collect a huge payday, too. But the nine insider lockup expirations scheduled for SpaceX could muddy the waters. Here's why.

Insiders want to get rich, too In the technology sector, stock options are usually a big deal. They are used to lure employees and keep them around, giving these insiders a stake at the table as the company grows. Often, early investors in tech companies have large stock holdings, as well. The hope is that when a private company goes public, insider shares will suddenly become more valuable and more liquid. In other words, insiders are looking for a big payday.

Image source: Getty Images.

That's just how things work on Wall Street. However, SpaceX was a massive IPO. Investors were happy to buy it, but there are only so many giant IPOs that can happen in a short period of time. Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is preparing an IPO expected to rival SpaceX's. Given the success of the SpaceX IPO, Anthropic going public right now would normally be a great idea. Only there's an insider wrinkle to consider.

SpaceX insiders want to sell their shares so they can make some money on the IPO, too. There are often limits around insider selling in IPOs. With SpaceX, there were nine insider expiration periods. There will be new expirations through the end of 2026. Each time a new block of stock opens up, the market potentially has to absorb more shares of SpaceX.

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SpaceX could be hit, but so could Anthropic The risk for SpaceX is that the stock falls as new shares hit the market. That's actually pretty typical. But the risk for Anthropic is that the appetite for other giant IPOs is reduced because investors only have just so much money to spread around. The more shares of SpaceX that insiders sell, the less money that could be available to buy Anthropic.

Now add in the popular backlash against AI, and Anthropic's IPO headwinds get even larger because the potential pool of IPO buyers could be smaller than hoped. None of this is meant to suggest that Anthropic won't have a giant IPO, only that the path to a successful IPO may not be as easy as it once seemed.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -2.02%) have been rising after they hit lows of less than $105 in early August. But at around $150, the stock is still nowhere near the highs of more than $200 that it reached in June, shortly after it went public.

At $2 trillion in market cap, the company, which more commonly goes by just SpaceX, isn't cheap, and it has plenty of bullishness already priced into its valuation.

Investors certainly have high hopes for its future. And any sign that the company's making progress toward its goals can ignite a rally. Here's why I think SpaceX stock can potentially finish the year back above $200.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company is getting close to its goal of $100 billion in annual recurring revenueOne of SpaceX's ambitious goals for 2026 is to finish this year with $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR). That would be a huge milestone for the space company, which in 2025 reported $18.7 billion in total revenue.

SpaceX has been locking up multiple compute deals in its artificial intelligence (AI) segment. Alphabet has secured a deal for compute power from SpaceX, agreeing to pay the company $920 million per month, which translates into $11 billion in annualized revenue. SpaceX has also made a similar deal with Anthropic.

The company's CFO Bret Johnsen says that SpaceX is "on track" to hit the ARR target as planned.

Reaching the milestone would be a huge achievement for SpaceX, and it could give investors confidence in the company's ability to achieve its lofty targets. While sending people to Mars and putting data centers in space are its most ambitious targets, getting to $100 billion in ARR would be a huge win at such an early stage for the business, and could give the space stock a significant boost in the near term.

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Why getting back to $200 isn't a sure thing for SpaceX's stockIt's possible for SpaceX to hit $200 by the end of the year, but I don't think it's necessarily probable. Not only would the company need to hit its ARR goal, but investor sentiment would also need to be strong for not only SpaceX but the overall tech sector. That's not a guarantee, and that's evident with SpaceX stock struggling to gain much traction. While it has been rising of late, the euphoria isn't there anymore -- the stock is still down 34% from its high.

There's still ample risk with the stock and revenue is just one part of the equation. Investors should also consider valuation and earnings. Those are still reasons to avoid the stock, as SpaceX remains incredibly overvalued and remains deeply unprofitable; it's likely too risky for most investors to own.

Elon Musk is known for making bold claims.

Like when he claimed earlier this year that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -0.32%), or SpaceX, had a $26.5 trillion addressable market for unspecified "artificial intelligence applications." A lot of people scoffed at that one (myself included).

Then, on the August earnings call, Musk claimed that SpaceX's annual recurring revenue (ARR) could hit $100 billion by the end of the year. That, too, seemed far-fetched, since the company generated less than $20 billion in total revenue in 2025.

But last week, SpaceX's CFO, Bret Johnsen, claimed that the company is on track to achieve its $100 billion ARR goal. I couldn't believe it at first, but when I did the math, I discovered it actually adds up if Musk can pull off this one big thing.

Here's the surprising truth behind this claim, and my take on whether Musk can actually deliver this impressive 5X growth.

Image source: The White House.

5X revenue growth is unprecedented According to SpaceX's S-1 prospectus, the company generated $18.7 billion in revenue in all of 2025. So, for the company to achieve $100 billion in revenue in 2026, it would have to grow total revenue by at least 535%.

Technically, as long as the ARR is contracted by Dec. 31, Musk's claim would be accurate. In that case, the $100 billion in contracted revenue would actually be recognized in 2027. So the actual revenue growth rate would need to be 535% over two years, not one.

That's still a very tall order.

In its most recent quarterly earnings release, SpaceX reported that its revenue grew 91.9% year over year (YOY) to $7.8 billion. That's impressive growth, but it's nowhere near enough. So what's changed?

Why build a data center when you can rent? The current climate of opposition to AI data centers is a very different landscape from the one in which SpaceX's xAI brought its Colossus AI data center campus online in just 122 days in 2024.

In fact, AI data centers are so unpopular that several approved data center projects have recently had that approval revoked. This makes existing AI compute capacity much more valuable. That's why SpaceX has been able to make several lucrative deals renting its AI compute capacity to third parties in recent months:

Deal Announcement DateCustomerARR from DealMay 6Anthropic$15 billionJune 5Alphabet$11 billionAug. 4Undisclosed$6.7 billion*Sept. 10Undisclosed$13.3 billion Total$46 billion Source: SpaceX. Note: The Aug. 4 annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a 6-month deal.

SpaceX's ARR from these four deals alone totals $46 billion. That puts it almost halfway to its goal. But can it get the rest of the way there by December?

A question of capacity In the four months since May's announcement of the deal with Anthropic, SpaceX has averaged $13.2 billion in AI compute deals per month. With three full months of the year remaining, if SpaceX can continue renting AI compute at that rate, it will yield another $40.2 billion in ARR by December.

But that assumes SpaceX has enough compute capacity to keep making deals of this size. Anthropic is now renting SpaceX's entire GPU capacity at its Colossus 1 data center. And some recent reports have suggested SpaceX may need to slow its new data center construction to ensure better reliability.

Still, if SpaceX has enough additional capacity to keep renting at this rate, doing so would bring the company's ARR to $86.2 billion, or very close to its goal.

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Starlink's growth comes in clutch Not all of SpaceX's ARR comes from selling AI compute.

As I explained recently, SpaceX's Starlink satellite communications service had 12 million users with an average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) of $66 in Q2. That's $9.5 billion in annual (presumably recurring) revenue. But the subscriber count grew by 16.5% from Q1 while maintaining the same ARPU of $66. If SpaceX can keep growing its Starlink subscriber base at the same quarterly rate, by the end of the year, it would have 16.3 million subscribers, yielding an ARR of $12.9 billion.

Add that to the $86.2 billion in AI compute ARR, and you get $99.1 billion in ARR. So close!

Lastly, SpaceX's rocket launch business currently provides $3.8 billion in annualized revenue. We can extrapolate that at least $900 million of that revenue is essentially "recurring," given SpaceX's dominance of the global launch market. That $900 million would get SpaceX to the promised $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year.

Image source: Getty Images.

But will it actually happen? Well, we won't know for a while.

Until SpaceX's 2026 10-K is released, there's no way to know if it can maintain its current rate of AI data center rentals or Starlink subscriber growth. If either stalls out, the math gets very unfriendly.

Plus, even if SpaceX signs binding contracts for $100 billion in ARR by Dec. 31, the company's 2026 revenue won't reach $100 billion. That's because so much of this ARR was secured later in the year.

That said, the fact that SpaceX has a plausible path to securing $100 billion in ARR by the end of 2026 is an impressive feat. I still think that its $2 trillion valuation is excessive. But if Musk can keep growing revenue at this breakneck pace, I may have to rethink my position on the stock.

After Elon Musk reiterated his belief that SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) would launch the very first Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Vera Rubin chips into orbit already in 2027, Finbold consulted ChatGPT about what such a milestone would mean for the price of SPCX shares.

I am highly confident that SpaceX will be launching Nvidia VR NLV72 AI computers in space next year

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 13, 2026 The artificial intelligence (AI) model started its analysis by pointing out that the idea of putting data centers in space is no longer purely speculative but appears well on track to at least be attempted.

Under the circumstances, OpenAI’s flagship platform estimated that the Starmind launch – announced by Elon Musk for the final quarter of 2027 – will prove a pivotal event that could, should it be successful, represent a significant bullish catalyst.

Still, ChatGPT underlined that the first flight and deployment do not guarantee the business model can work at scale, as numerous engineering problems remain yet to be solved.

Thus, as it itself explained, its price target for after the first rocket with Vera Rubin enters Earth’s orbit leans more on the notion SpaceX will generally be a larger company at the time and that a successful deployment will, initially, only have a limited upward impact.

Overall, ChatGPT decided that $250 per SPCX share is the most plausible result of trading by late 2027.

ChatGPT sets SpaceX stock price target for after the 2027 Vera Rubin launch. Source: ChatGPT & Finbold Notably, it also warned that the Vera Rubin launch can fail and have an outsized negative impact and also pointed out that the question of whether the $3.4 trillion valuation predicted can be justified in the long run hinges on the entire SpaceX business, and not a single technological milestone.

ChatGPT reveals key caveat for its SpaceX stock price orbital Nvidia data center prediction. Source: ChatGPT & Finbold SPCX stock performance since SpaceX IPO Leaving the distant future aside, SPCX stock has been enjoying a recovery since early August thanks to its first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public company, breaking the downtrend that took hold shortly after the equity hit the $225.64 all-time high.

Indeed, though SpaceX shares remain 6.05% in the red on the all-time chart – relative to their first-ever close – they have risen 44.24% from the $104.83 all-time low, and were above both the initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 and the day-one open at $150 at the most recent close.

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Google Still, the Monday, September 14, pre-market session raised the risk of a renewed downtrend as SPCX stock retraced 2.45% from $151.21 to $147.50 at press time.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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BEIJING — China on Monday pushed back on calls by U.S. AI executives for companies to slow down the development of the cutting-edge technology.

"Fear mongering, confrontation, competition will just disrupt [the] process of global AI governance," Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, said on Monday, per an English translation published by Reuters.

He was responding to a question about U.S. CEOs, including Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman and Elon Musk, calling for the industry to slow down because of the dangers rapid advances in the technology pose.

China's Minister of State Security, Chen Yixin, published an article on Sunday calling for the acceleration of construction of an AI security risk prevention and control system.

The field of AI has become "the main battleground for global technological competition and a new arena for strategic rivalry among major powers," the minister said, adding there was a need for "healthy and orderly" development of the technology.

Closing the AI gapAI-related stocks slumped on Monday, with SoftBank — one of the biggest investors in OpenAI — down 10% in Japan.

"Not building the technology deprives humanity of benefits or simply places AI in the hands of authoritarian powers, while building it too fast is reckless," Amodei said in an essay published on Saturday.

He noted, however, that pacing would be limited by the lead that U.S. companies have over "authoritarian regimes, chiefly the Chinese Communist Party."

"If we slow down by more than this amount, then (unpaced) CCP-associated projects will pull ahead, creating significant national security risk," Amodei said.

U.S. President Donald Trump also warned against the U.S. losing any strategic advantage in the AI arms race. During a trip to Ireland, he rejected the AI bosses' calls, saying, "Look, we're leading China in AI... and, frankly I want to keep it that way because whoever wins AI, wins."

At the weekend, President Xi Jinping said at the BRICS bloc summit in New Delhi that China will take the lead to help foster AI collaboration and development among developing countries.

Adoption of Chinese AI models is also gaining traction among Western companies as the capability have improved.

RFG Advisory LLC bought a new stake in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor bought 5,197 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $888,000.

Other institutional investors have also added to or reduced their stakes in the company. K5 Global Advisor LLC acquired a new stake in SpaceX in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $6,587,531,000. Hyperion Asset Management Ltd purchased a new position in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter worth $201,137,000. Bond Capital Management LP acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the second quarter worth $180,620,000. Value Aligned Research Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the second quarter valued at $100,760,000. Finally, Tema ETFs LLC purchased a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the second quarter valued at $32,037,000.

SpaceX Stock Up 2.0% Shares of SPCX stock opened at $151.21 on Friday. SpaceX has a 52-week low of $104.83 and a 52-week high of $225.64. The company has a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. The firm has a market cap of $1.98 trillion and a PE ratio of -1,680.11. The company has a 50-day moving average of $134.79.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The company had revenue of $7.81 billion for the quarter. SpaceX’s revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts anticipate that SpaceX will post -0.15 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. Key Headlines Impacting SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen disclosed a new AI-computing agreement worth approximately $1.11 billion per month, or more than $13 billion in annual recurring revenue, beginning December 1. The contract strengthens management’s case for reaching its $100 billion annual recurring-revenue target. SpaceX Closes $1.11 Billion-a-Month Compute Deal Positive Sentiment: Management expects Starship Flight 14 to generate revenue for the first time later this month, with the mission carrying production Starlink satellites. A successful revenue flight would mark progress from demonstrations toward a commercial launch business. Starship Revenue Flight 14 Positive Sentiment: Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating and $220 price target, citing accelerating AI, Starship and Starlink growth. William Blair also maintained a bullish view tied to multibillion-dollar SpaceX AI contracts. Goldman Sachs Reaffirms Buy Rating Positive Sentiment: Britain’s confirmation that it uses SpaceX’s military satellite network, alongside a reported Starshield contract and a successful Space Force launch, supports demand for the company’s government and defense services. Britain Uses SpaceX Military Network Neutral Sentiment: SpaceX is reportedly reconsidering the pace and structure of its AI data-center buildout. A more efficient strategy could improve returns, but slower expansion could delay projected AI revenue growth. SpaceX Data-Center Buildout Report Negative Sentiment: A 319-million-share lockup release has increased potential selling pressure, with additional shares reportedly scheduled to become tradable. SpaceX Lockup Release Negative Sentiment: Some analysts and commentators warn that SpaceX’s valuation—reported at roughly 98 times sales—leaves little room for execution errors. Isar Aerospace’s successful orbital launch also highlights rising European competition. Isar Aerospace Reaches Orbit Negative Sentiment: SpaceX’s lawsuit seeking to keep Texas Terafab tax-break records private may create reputational and regulatory concerns around its AI infrastructure expansion. SpaceX Terafab Records Lawsuit Analyst Ratings Changes A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on SPCX shares. Argus upgraded SpaceX from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $160.00 target price for the company in a research note on Friday, August 7th. Citigroup lowered SpaceX from a “buy” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Friday, August 7th. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an “overweight” rating on shares of SpaceX in a report on Wednesday, August 26th. William Blair reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Friday. Finally, KeyCorp reiterated a “sector weight” rating on shares of SpaceX in a report on Tuesday, July 28th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-six have assigned a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and seven have given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $221.06.

Check Out Our Latest Report on SPCX

SpaceX Company Profile (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems, serving commercial, government and scientific customers.

SpaceX’s principal products include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are used to launch satellites, spacecraft and other payloads into orbit. The company also develops the Dragon spacecraft, which supports cargo and crew missions to low Earth orbit, including missions for NASA and other customers.

Through its Starlink business, SpaceX operates a large constellation of low Earth orbit satellites that provides broadband internet service to customers in numerous countries and regions.

Read More Five stocks we like better than SpaceX Rocket Lab Tackles a Supply Chain Bottleneck as the Stock Hunts for a Bottom. Time to Buy? Optical Cable Corporation Is Starting to Get the Market’s Attention Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers Is Nike’s Index Demotion a Warning or a Buying Opportunity? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding SPCX? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report).

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.04%) was 2026's hottest IPO, but now that it has gone public and gone through its post-IPO volatility, investors are better able to assess what kind of upside SpaceX stock has. Some investors are even calling for a major price increase in 2027, but is that accurate?

Let's take a look at what a $1,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth by the end of next year, as that could determine if it's worth an investment or not.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Wall Street thinks it's worth an investment First, let's check out what Wall Street analysts have to say. Wall Street analysts project one-year price targets for stocks they cover to indicate a general direction they believe the stock is heading. While one projection by itself may be a bit outlandish (the high projection is $450 per share, while the lowest is $62 per share, according to Yahoo Finance), the average gives a useful picture. Among 36 analysts, the average price target is $215 per share -- quite a ways above its current price tag of $150 or so.

That indicates that SpaceX's stock could rise quite a bit in 2027, but is that accurate?

While many investors may be buying SpaceX stock for the space economy and exploration side of the business, I think the real key to its success lies in its artificial intelligence (AI) wing. During the second quarter, AI grew the fastest of all of its divisions, up 213% year over year. If SpaceX is to surpass $200 per share, then its AI division will need to keep up its rapid growth rate and showcase that it's a major competitor in the space. xAI and its Grok model have a pretty wide following, but as AI hyperscalers spend more and more money on computing capabilities, it could push xAI out of its position.

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That remains to be seen, but could SpaceX reach more than $200 per share as some analysts project? I don't think so.

The issue with SpaceX's stock right now is that so much growth is already priced in. For 2026, Wall Street expects $44.7 billion in revenue on average. At today's $2 trillion valuation, that prices SpaceX at 45 times sales. That's a very expensive price tag, and normally companies this size trade for 45 times earnings or less, not sales.

As a result, unless SpaceX can dramatically grow and start producing greater profits, I think a $1,000 investment in SpaceX will be worth just that at the end of 2027: $1,000. There are far better AI stock picks than SpaceX, and I think investors should focus their energy there.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.04%) had a strong positive impact on space stocks when it debuted through an initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. SpaceX shares were priced at $135 per share for the IPO, but the stock opened that day to the public at $150. It reached an intraday high of $176.52 before closing at $160.95.

Overall, though, the stock is down more than 7% this year, unless you were fortunate enough to buy it at its IPO price. Here are three reasons why the stock could crash in the fourth quarter and one reason why it won't.

Image source: Getty Images.

The lockup period ends in the fourth quarter SpaceX's IPO was structured with a staggered insider unlock schedule tied to time-based milestones, rather than the single lockup expiry used by many new stocks. That structure replaces the 180-day cliff with a series of dated releases, which keeps supply questions in front of investors for months rather than compressing them into a single expiration day. However, the 180-day lockup period will expire for all insider investors, except for CEO Elon Musk and a few select shareholders, in early December.

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A deluge of people unloading their SpaceX shares could easily drive down the price and set off a selling frenzy. We already saw a little bit of that on Sept. 9, when some investors were able to sell in the 90-calendar-day unlock milestone. Though that period represented only 7% of the stock's shares, the price dropped from a midday high of $153 to close at $147.55.

Poor third-quarter earnings could spur investors to sell SpaceX is expected to report third-quarter earnings in early November. In the second-quarter earnings release, the company reported revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year. However, it also had a net loss of $541 million and spent $28.5 billion on capital expenditures over the first six months, up 309% from the same period last year. The market didn't react well to those earnings. The stock, after closing at $125.33 on Aug. 4, just before the earnings announcement, opened at $108.27 on Aug. 5. It's easy to see how another less-than-spectacular third quarter could further drop the stock.

Despite strong top-line revenue from Starlink and launch services, SpaceX's aggressive expansion, particularly its massive infrastructure investments in Starship development and artificial intelligence (AI)/SpaceXAI compute clusters, has led to massive cash burn. The company posted a negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion for 2025 and continued significant burn through early 2026 as capital expenditures surged.

If credit conditions tighten or fourth-quarter capex spending estimates jump higher, Wall Street could reprice the stock downward to reflect its heavily delayed path to positive free cash flow.

SpaceX's valuation may come back down to earth Because of Musk's popularity, the stock is trading at a high multiple. Since it isn't generating a profit yet, the best valuation indicator to use is its trailing price-to-sales ratio, which is 94.8. That's a massive premium to conventional defense, aerospace, and tech peers and leaves SpaceX little room for error. Any technical setback, delay in commercial Starship operations, slowdown in Starlink subscriber growth, or sudden volatility in high-priced cloud compute contracts, such as AI cluster hosting deals, could trigger a rapid valuation compression in the fourth quarter.

However, SpaceX has a huge integrated moat For long-term investors, buying SpaceX is less a bet on aerospace launch and more an allocation to a vertically integrated global utility and compute infrastructure platform. The company has a near monopoly in several categories. Its Falcon 9 medium-lift rocket has a huge share of the global commercial market, with 684 missions. Its Dragon ship is the only operational U.S. spacecraft to ferry crews to and from the International Space Station. Its Starlink service is a global internet network with 6,750 satellites in orbit, serving more than 10 million customers across 160 markets.

Its Starship program, though still experimental, is scheduled for its 14th test flight, and represents the next step in launch scale and hardware use for the next decade.

SpaceX controls both rockets and satellites, and it is positioned to capture entirely new markets in defense and direct-to-cell connectivity, as well as to put data centers into space before peers can get off the ground.

Many investors place their faith in Musk Investors view Musk through his ability to build category-defining, megacap companies, most notably Tesla, from early-stage concepts. Because Musk has repeatedly proven that he can scale complex engineering businesses past traditional industry limitations, institutional investors routinely apply a premium to his ventures compared to peers.

The market is judging the stock based on what it could do years from now, and while that's risky, it has paid off for early Tesla investors. They are betting that SpaceX's near-monopolies in rocket reusability and low Earth orbit will remain intact, and the company's first-mover advantage will continue to deliver record revenue.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have delivered a modest gain for early public investors three months after the company’s historic debut.

At press time, SPCX stock was trading at $151. At its June 12 IPO, the shares were priced at $135.

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold Therefore, an investor who put $1,000 into SpaceX stock at the offering price would now hold shares worth about $1,120, representing a gain of more than 12%.

SpaceX’s initial public offering was the largest in U.S. history, raising roughly $75 billion and valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion at the $135 offer price.

Shares opened higher and surged in the first days of trading, briefly topping $225 and pushing the company’s market capitalization above $2 trillion.

The stock has since pulled back amid heavy capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, successive share lock-up expirations, and broader market scrutiny of its valuation.

SpaceX stock fundamentals  Amid this volatility, the firm’s fundamentals remained strong. In this case, SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue growth of 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, driven by its Connectivity (Starlink), AI Compute, and Space segments. 

Management has highlighted several large AI hosting deals, including a newly disclosed agreement worth about $1.11 billion per month beginning in December, as support for its goal of reaching a $100 billion annual recurring revenue run rate by the end of 2026.

Investors are also closely watching Starship’s 14th test flight later this month, which is expected to carry next-generation Starlink V3 satellites and mark the rocket’s first revenue-generating mission.

However, a major debate among investors is whether SpaceX’s spending is becoming too aggressive. To this end, S&P Global estimates capital expenditures could rise to nearly $200 billion in 2027 as the company invests in AI data centers, chip manufacturing, Starship infrastructure, and new launch facilities. 

While supporters see this as laying the foundation for future growth, skeptics argue it raises execution and cash-flow risks.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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AST SpaceMobile Looks to Extend Its 30-Day FCC Satellite Testing WindowSpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX CFO Bret Johnsen outlined the company’s strategy across reusable launch systems, satellite connectivity and artificial intelligence infrastructure, emphasizing vertical integration as a central operating principle.

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Speaking at an investor conference, Johnsen said the company’s approach extends from rocket manufacturing and satellite production to customer relationships, terrestrial computing infrastructure and planned orbital computing systems.

3 Stocks Built for Higher Rates—And 2 That Could Break“We really believe that we are building the infrastructure of the future,” Johnsen said. He said the company adopted vertical integration early in its rocket and spacecraft operations because it could not find supply-chain providers moving at the pace or meeting the quality standards it required.

Starship milestones and reuse plans Johnsen described Starship as central to the company’s businesses, including satellite broadband, direct-to-device mobile service and orbital computing. He said Flight 13 delivered demonstration V3 satellites, included a Raptor engine relight and achieved what he called the second stage’s “softest” and most precise ocean splashdown to date.

AST SpaceMobile Stock Soared 12%—This Was the CatalystThe company recovered the vehicle after the splashdown, allowing engineers to inspect it and assess how the heat shield performed, he said. Those findings are being incorporated into preparations for Flight 14 and subsequent missions.

Flight 14, expected later in the month, is set to be a revenue-generating mission carrying production V3 Starlink satellites, according to Johnsen. He added that the company expects attempts to recover both the first and second stages to be significant milestones later in the year.

Johnsen said achieving reuse of both Starship stages could materially reduce deployment costs. He cited SpaceX’s experience reusing Falcon 9 boosters, saying the company has reflown more than 500 rocket boosters to space.

Orbital and terrestrial AI compute Johnsen said SpaceX is targeting its first orbital-compute satellite launches next year. The systems would largely use the V3 satellite platform being deployed for Starlink, with modified payloads and larger solar arrays, he said.

He argued that orbital computing could address power, cooling and permitting constraints facing terrestrial data-center development. While the company will continue expanding terrestrial computing capacity, he said orbital compute is “definitely the future” and may reach cost parity with terrestrial systems as soon as next year, contingent on progress in Starship reusability.

For terrestrial compute, Johnsen reiterated a target to deploy between 5 gigawatts and 10 gigawatts next year, following expected year-end capacity of slightly more than 2 gigawatts. He said the company has visibility into power, facilities and permitting because it controls some of the development itself.

Johnsen also said SpaceX had signed another hosting deal earlier in the month that is expected to generate about $1.11 billion per month beginning Dec. 1, or roughly $13 billion in annual recurring revenue. That agreement increased management’s conviction in its target of reaching $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, he said.

The company is NVIDIA-exclusive for compute infrastructure, Johnsen said, and expects its relationship with the chipmaker to support GPU allocation. He said SpaceX’s hosting arrangements have generally been structured as 90-day agreements with 90-day termination provisions, reflecting the company’s desire to preserve capacity for its own AI products over time.

Johnsen said management has forecast next-year compute monetization in a range of $30 to $50, adding that the company was at the high end of that range. He also cited relationships with Anthropic and Google.

AI products and connectivity growth Johnsen said acquisitions involving AI and Cursor this year were aimed at accelerating time to market. He pointed to the release of Grok Bot and advances from Grok 4.5 to Grok 4.6, with Grok 4.7 expected soon, as evidence of a faster product cycle.

On Starlink broadband, Johnsen said the company has moved beyond its early consumer focus as it has developed the reliability and service-level capabilities needed to pursue enterprise customers. He said demand opportunities span fixed wireless applications and mobility markets including airlines, cruise ships, yachts and trains.

He said SpaceX has a large aircraft connectivity backlog and is increasing production to address it. The company operates Starlink broadband in more than 170 countries, according to Johnsen, although he said awareness remains a constraint in some markets outside the U.S.

Direct-to-device mobile plans SpaceX plans to begin launching satellites for its next-generation direct-to-device network next year and expects it could activate service in the first half of 2028, Johnsen said. He characterized the planned offering as full 5G-quality service, compared with the company’s current first-generation service, which he described as primarily text messaging and light voice capability.

The company bought mid-band spectrum from EchoStar for U.S. operations, Johnsen said, and the spectrum has Federal Communications Commission approval for direct-from-space and terrestrial use. He said SpaceX could build terrestrial capabilities if needed or work with existing carriers.

Johnsen said the company’s near-term investment priorities are Starship and terrestrial compute. Over the longer term, he said orbital compute remains one of the company’s most misunderstood opportunities because management expects it to scale faster than many outside observers anticipate.

About SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems, serving commercial, government and scientific customers.

SpaceX's principal products include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are used to launch satellites, spacecraft and other payloads into orbit. The company also develops the Dragon spacecraft, which supports cargo and crew missions to low Earth orbit, including missions for NASA and other customers.

Through its Starlink business, SpaceX operates a large constellation of low Earth orbit satellites that provides broadband internet service to customers in numerous countries and regions.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.

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SPCX buy

Buy SpaceX (SPCX). The news adds another massive AI compute contract: ~$1.11B monthly starting Dec 1, ~ $13.3B annualized from a single customer, on top of prior deals. That supports a step-up in “AI infrastructure” revenue power and strengthens the path to $100B ARR by Dec 2026, while capacity targets jump to 5–10 GW by end-2027. The stock’s recent recovery after lockup pressure suggests the market is starting to price durable demand, not just one-off hype.

Key Risk: Another customer deal disappoints (or margins/capacity constraints show up), breaking the $100B ARR trajectory and making the valuation jump unjustified.

SPCX sell into lockup overhang

Sell/short SpaceX (SPCX) specifically around lockup-driven supply. The article flags ongoing unlocks (319M Class A on Wednesday; 59.1M affiliate on Thursday; billions more by end-2026). Even with strong AI contracts, intermittent selling pressure can cap upside and create sharp drawdowns when traders de-risk into unlock dates.

Key Risk: Lockup selling fails to materialize because new contract momentum absorbs supply (or buyback/insider demand offsets), removing the expected price pressure.

SpaceX SPCX stock rose more than 1% on Friday to around $149 after initially slipping, extending its recovery from this week’s decline as investors digested another major artificial intelligence compute agreement.

The latest contract could add $1.11 billion in monthly revenue beginning December 1, according to CFO Bret Johnsen, who disclosed the agreement at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference.

That translates to roughly $13.3 billion in annualized revenue from a single undisclosed customer, giving investors another reason to reassess SpaceX’s valuation as an AI infrastructure company.

Johnsen said SpaceXAI closed the new compute-hosting agreement in early September.

William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating on SpaceX following the announcement, noting that the $13.3 billion annualized agreement is separate from the $6.7 billion, six-month compute deal SpaceX disclosed during its August earnings call.

The latest contract marks the fourth major compute agreement announced by SpaceX over the past four months with annualized value exceeding $11 billion.

In May, SpaceX announced a $1.25 billion-per-month agreement with Anthropic.

The company followed that with a deal with Google in early June worth $920 million per month.

The rapid expansion of these contracts is changing how investors may view SpaceX’s revenue potential.

The company generated about $23 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, according to William Blair, while its market capitalization stands at roughly $2.01 trillion.

SpaceX has also guided toward $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.

Johnsen indicated at the Goldman Sachs conference that the company has increased conviction in achieving that target by December.

“Bret Johnsen, SpaceX’s chief financial officer, indicated that he has even more conviction now in achieving the $100 billion ARR target in December,” William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma said.

SpaceX is also significantly increasing its planned AI compute capacity.

The company now targets between 5 and 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, compared with its previous goal of 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026.

DiPalma believes SpaceX has an advantage in deploying capacity faster than competitors, while its relationship with Nvidia provides SpaceXAI with priority access to GPUs.

“SpaceX has benefited from its ability to deploy capacity much faster than peers,” DiPalma said.

Lockups remain an overhangThe AI momentum comes after a volatile week for SpaceX stock.

Shares fell around 3% on Wednesday after the company’s third scheduled lockup tranche released up to 319 million Class A shares, worth roughly $49 billion at recent prices.

Another 59.1 million affiliate shares were unlocked on Thursday.

The additional supply initially pressured the stock, but shares recovered modestly on Thursday and are now up 12% over the past 30 days.

Investors are still facing billions of dollars of additional shares becoming eligible for trading, which could create intermittent selling pressure.

By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.

Investors have been cautious about buying ahead of potential profit-taking by early shareholders.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX +1.04%) fell 3.9% to $147.55 on Wednesday -- the same session another batch of the company's stock became free to trade.

Up to 319 million shares held by employees and early investors came out of lockup on Sept. 9, the third scheduled release since the space and artificial intelligence company's June initial public offering (IPO). A smaller batch of 59.1 million shares held by affiliates (officers and other controlling holders) followed on Thursday. Both dates came straight from SpaceX's prospectus.

The timing invites a temptingly overly simplified conclusion: new supply arrived, so the stock fell. Maybe some of it did. But shares had climbed 9% across the three sessions before the release, so Wednesday's decline left the stock about where it ended the prior week.

But I wouldn't buy the growth stock here, and Wednesday's dip isn't the main reason. Most of SpaceX's stock is still waiting for its release date.

Image source: Getty Images.

A mixed record so farWednesday was SpaceX's third unlock, and the first day looked nothing like the two that followed. The first and largest release came on Aug. 6, two days after its first earnings report as a public company, when just over 911 million shares became eligible for sale -- more than the roughly 639 million shares the IPO itself sold. Shares rose 6% that day. The second, on Aug. 20, freed another 319 million shares, and the stock fell 4%. Wednesday's release matched that one in size, and the decline looked similar, too.

The mixed record is a reminder that shares becoming eligible for sale is not the same thing as shares being sold. After all, every line of the lockup schedule says "up to," and nobody is required to sell on the day they're allowed to.

Most of SpaceX still can't tradeThe pool that can trade consists of the roughly 639 million shares sold in the IPO and the four batches the lockup has released since early August. That comes to at most about 2.2 billion of SpaceX's 13.6 billion shares outstanding, or about 17% of the company.

The rest is on a schedule. Releases of up to 328.4 million shares land on Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24. The biggest release left in 2026 (up to 1.3 billion shares, or 28% of the stock under the standard lockup) lands on the second full trading day after SpaceX reports third-quarter results. And nearly 800 million more shares go free on Dec. 8. That last batch would have been just 328.4 million shares had the stock closed at least 30% above its $135 IPO price on five of the 10 trading days into the first earnings report. It never came close.

In short, about 3.1 billion shares are scheduled to become sellable between now and early December -- more than everything eligible to trade today.

And even that leaves out the biggest holder. CEO Elon Musk's stake of more than 6 billion shares, nearly half the company, stays locked until June 2027.

At this price, the supply mattersNone of that supply would matter much if the stock were cheap. It isn't.

SpaceX's market value of about $2 trillion is more than 60 times the revenue a full year would produce at the second quarter's pace, about $31 billion.

The business is arguably growing fast enough to deserve a premium. Second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion nearly doubled year over year.

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SpaceX also lost $541 million in the second quarter, though that loss was about half as big as a year earlier. And it spent $28.5 billion on property and equipment in this year's first half against $12.5 billion of revenue. At a sales multiple above 60, I think the price already counts on years of growth this fast.

Sure, the record so far shows a release day can pass without damage. The largest one did. More float also brings demand with it. SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq-100 is expected to rise when the index rebalances on Sept. 21, and JPMorgan estimates the change could force about $15.5 billion of buying from index funds. But the 1.3 billion-share release that follows third-quarter earnings is still ahead, and I'd rather see how the market absorbs that supply before paying more than 60 times revenue.

But would I buy SpaceX stock after this week's dip? Not yet. Shares just look too expensive here, in my opinion.

If the price pulls back far enough to make shares look more attractive, I'd reconsider.

A five-year-old European startup just pulled off a double that no company on the continent has managed before, and the ambition behind it points directly at the rocket architecture SpaceX bet everything on with Starship.

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The European Space Agency on Friday awarded The Exploration Company a €760 million contract to build and fly Europe’s first commercial cargo capsule to the International Space Station, signed at the International Space Summit in Paris. ESA describes it as its first and largest capsule transportation service contract awarded to a European company in open competition. The contract covers an initial demonstration mission plus two optional follow-on flights.

The award follows the Munich-based startup’s $450 million funding round that closed days earlier, the largest ever raised by a European space tech company. The raise set the table. The contract is the payoff.

Founder and CEO Helene Huby framed the significance: “This is more than a contract award: it reflects a shift in how we build space technology in Europe. We started the development of Nyx with private funding only, and we are now at a technical maturity level where ESA and Member States’ public funding can support us massively, as anchor clients, to help us finalise the vehicle. It is also the first time in Europe that a five-year-old space startup wins a contract worth hundreds of millions of euros in open competition.”

ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher added: “Today’s agreement with The Exploration Company shows how ESA can act as an anchor customer, strengthening Europe’s commercial space sector and turning ambition into reality.”

Where the $450 Million Goes Huby has been direct about the deployment of the record European raise: “The majority of this funding is going to accelerate the biggest rocket engine ever developed in Europe, full flow staged combustion, so the most efficient rocket engine cycle in the world.”

Full-flow staged combustion is the same architecture SpaceX chose for its Raptor engine powering Starship. It routes all propellant through preburners before the main chamber, extracting more energy from every kilogram of fuel. It also happens to be the most capital-intensive rocket cycle to develop, which is why Huby was blunt about the funding gap:

“It’s not completely enough because this kind of rocket engine cost actually a lot of money to develop, but it’s more than two thirds of what we need to develop this rocket engine.” The engine program is called Storm.

Demand Book: $1B in Europe, $1B in the US Helene Huby said the company has already booked substantial commercial demand: “We’ve signed now about 1,000,000,000 in Europe, 1,000,000,000 in United States, and now we need to deliver a lot of capsule.” That is roughly one billion in Europe and one billion in the United States, with pre-booking agreements from commercial space station operators Axiom, Starlab and Vast.

Nyx, Briefly Nyx is a reusable capsule designed to launch on any heavy-lift rocket, dock autonomously with a space station, and return cargo to Earth. It uses in-house carbon-based thermal protection and proprietary guidance, navigation and flight software. Development runs across Munich, Bordeaux and Turin with expansion into the United States and the UAE. Nyx is in ISS certification with NASA. Separately, The Exploration Company signed a deal with Arianespace to launch the first Nyx capsule on an Ariane 6 rocket from Europe’s spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Full details are available at esa.int.

Investing Angle for SPCX Holders The incumbent is publicly traded. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) last changed hands at $149.50, up 0.89% in the premarket session. Over the past month, SPCX has advanced 12.16%, and sits 7.12% below its level three months ago. The company carries a market cap of roughly $1.14 trillion and posted Q2 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, with its Space segment generating $962 million including $648 million in launch services. See the 8-K filing on SEC.gov for full quarterly disclosures.

The Exploration Company is privately held, so direct exposure is unavailable to public-market investors. It has yet to fly a capsule to the ISS. Its lead customer is a government agency acting as anchor client. SpaceX already operates the cargo and crew services this startup is working toward, and its Starlink Consumer business alone grew 44% year over year last quarter. The realistic read: this is a credible, state-backed effort to end European dependence on a single US launch provider over the next decade. Near-term SpaceX revenue is unlikely to feel it.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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SpaceX (SPCX) re-rating

Buy SpaceX (SPCX). The $1.11B/month compute-hosting deal adds real proof that its AI compute business is scaling fast, not just hype. With existing Anthropic (~$1.25B/month) and Google (~$920M/month) contracts, the market is underpricing SpaceX as an AI infrastructure platform with vertically integrated advantages (data, capital, rapid buildout, Nvidia access). That supports a move toward Pivotal’s ~$220 and potentially higher if utilization stays strong.

Key Risk: Customers cancel or renegotiate compute contracts quickly, proving the revenue isn’t durable and the AI infrastructure economics don’t hold.

Starship reusability leverage

Buy SpaceX (SPCX) specifically for the Starship reusability catalyst. The valuation case hinges on getting to 20–50 rapid, cheap refurbishment flights. If reusability improves, it cuts launch costs, expands Starlink capacity, and makes orbital AI infrastructure economically practical—turning today’s hosting revenue into a broader, cheaper-to-scale platform.

Key Risk: Starship reusability fails to reach the required flight/refurb cadence, keeping launch costs high and breaking the cost-structure thesis.

SpaceX has landed another enormous AI customer, forcing investors to rethink what kind of company they are valuing.

CFO Bret Johnsen said at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference that SpaceX signed a compute-hosting agreement worth $1.11 billion a month from December 1.

Annualised, that equals about $13.3 billion from one undisclosed customer. SPCX trades around $148, 34% below its $225.64 high.

Pivotal Research sees $220, implying nearly 50% upside. But the case is not as simple as adding another $13 billion to recurring revenue.

A $13 billion customer changes the revenue storyThe agreement adds to an AI cloud business that has quickly become material.

Johnsen said SpaceX already has a roughly $1.25 billion-a-month deal with Anthropic and a $920 million-a-month agreement with Google.

The company generated about $6.7 billion of cloud-services revenue in the second quarter while spending around $16 billion on AI infrastructure.

Those numbers make AI compute difficult to dismiss as a side business.

Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan recently raised his SpaceX target to $280 from $250, arguing that the company’s vertically integrated AI platform gives it an advantage through access to data, capital, Nvidia GPUs and rapid infrastructure deployment.

SpaceX can monetise scarce compute today while developing its own AI products and orbital data centres.

Management now aims to exit 2026 at a $100 billion annualised revenue run rate.

Pivotal Research initiated coverage on September 8 with a Buy rating and $220 target. From around $148, that implies roughly 49% upside.

But analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak’s thesis does not depend primarily on AI hosting.

He said the investment case “rests almost entirely on a single admittedly massive engineering bottleneck: Starship reusability.”

Pivotal believes a Starship must complete 20 to 50 flights with inexpensive, rapid refurbishment to justify the economics embedded in SpaceX’s valuation.

Solving that problem could cut launch costs, expand Starlink capacity and make orbital AI infrastructure more practical.

AI hosting can boost revenue, as reusable Starship could change the cost structure underpinning SpaceX’s next generation of businesses.

Without reliable reusability, Wlodarczak warned, SpaceX becomes “a different and much smaller company.”

The biggest caveat is contract duration, as Johnsen said most SpaceX compute agreements include provisions allowing either party to terminate relatively quickly.

Analysts noted that the new $1.11 billion-a-month customer follows that general structure.

That means investors should not treat $13.3 billion as guaranteed annual revenue stretching years into the future.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter has highlighted the same issue.

The firm said SpaceX’s AI cloud agreements are lucrative, but their “staying power” is difficult to judge. Piper maintains a Neutral rating and $140 target.

The concern sits alongside heavy spending. Piper estimates fiscal 2027 capital expenditure could reach about $65 billion, while more previously restricted shares are becoming tradable.

“As long as the float keeps growing,” Piper warned, “the multiple may not correlate with fundamentals.”

That changes how investors should value the contracts.

SpaceX is spending aggressively to capture extraordinary compute scarcity. If pricing and utilisation remain strong, those investments could produce exceptional returns.

If customers cancel, AI capacity becomes less scarce or financing costs rise, the economics could weaken quickly.

Allworth Financial LP bought a new position in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm bought 15,000 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,563,000.

Several other institutional investors and hedge funds have also modified their holdings of the business. Syntax Research Inc. acquired a new position in SpaceX in the second quarter valued at about $26,000. Atwood & Palmer Inc. bought a new position in SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at about $29,000. PayPay Securities Corp acquired a new position in shares of SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Marquette Asset Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $32,000. Finally, POM Investment Strategies LLC acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $39,000.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research analysts recently issued reports on SPCX shares. Morgan Stanley reissued an “overweight” rating on shares of SpaceX in a research note on Wednesday, August 26th. Clear Str raised SpaceX to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Tuesday, July 7th. Moffett Nathanson initiated coverage on SpaceX in a research note on Tuesday, July 7th. They issued a “neutral” rating and a $131.00 price target on the stock. Bank of America started coverage on SpaceX in a report on Tuesday, July 7th. They set a “buy” rating and a $235.00 price target for the company. Finally, DZ Bank initiated coverage on SpaceX in a research note on Friday, August 21st. They issued a “sell” rating and a $100.00 price objective on the stock. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-six have issued a Buy rating, eight have assigned a Hold rating and seven have issued a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $221.06.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on SPCX SpaceX Stock Performance Shares of NASDAQ:SPCX opened at $148.18 on Friday. The company has a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. SpaceX has a 52 week low of $104.83 and a 52 week high of $225.64. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.94 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio of -1,646.44. The business’s fifty day simple moving average is $135.01.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.26) by $0.17. The company had revenue of $7.81 billion for the quarter. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts forecast that SpaceX will post -0.15 EPS for the current year.

Key Stories Impacting SpaceX Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: UK Starshield contract: Britain is reportedly spending nearly $40 million on SpaceX satellite services, providing validation for the Starshield defense business and a potential source of recurring international revenue. SpaceX Stock Rises as Britain Spends Nearly $40M on Satellite Services Positive Sentiment: Successful government launch: SpaceX launched a U.S. Space Force mission from California, reinforcing its launch reliability and defense-contract credentials. SpaceX Launches Space Force Mission in California Positive Sentiment: Starlink product upgrade: A fourth-generation router featuring Wi-Fi 7, broader coverage and support for more connected devices could improve Starlink’s consumer competitiveness and average revenue per user. SpaceX Gives Starlink a Major Wi-Fi Upgrade Positive Sentiment: Analyst and institutional support: Pivotal Research initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $220 target, while Third Point reported acquiring roughly $31 million of SpaceX shares after the IPO. Billionaire Investor Added SpaceX to His Portfolio Neutral Sentiment: Data-center strategy shift: Reports that SpaceX may slow or redesign its AI data-center expansion could reduce near-term spending and execution risk, but may also delay projected AI revenue growth. SpaceX Shifting Gears With Data Center Buildout Negative Sentiment: Valuation remains a concern: Commentary highlighting a valuation near 98 times sales and recent analyst caution is limiting enthusiasm, especially while SpaceX continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure. SpaceX Trades at 98 Times Sales Negative Sentiment: Share-supply and transparency overhangs: Recent lockup expirations have made hundreds of millions of shares eligible for sale, while SpaceX is suing to keep Texas Terafab tax-break records private. Both developments can increase selling pressure or investor scrutiny. SpaceX Sues to Block Release of Terafab Tax-Break Records SpaceX Profile (Free Report)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a privately held aerospace company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite systems, serving commercial, government and scientific customers.

SpaceX’s principal products include the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are used to launch satellites, spacecraft and other payloads into orbit. The company also develops the Dragon spacecraft, which supports cargo and crew missions to low Earth orbit, including missions for NASA and other customers.

Through its Starlink business, SpaceX operates a large constellation of low Earth orbit satellites that provides broadband internet service to customers in numerous countries and regions.

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While the early August earnings triggered no small amount of optimism and a strong rally away from the all-time lows, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has nonetheless remained between its initial public offering (IPO) and day-one prices.

Indeed, filling a $1,000 order almost exactly three months ago would have meant acquiring SPCX shares at $135. Thus, such an investment would have risen 9.76% to $1,097.63, given that the most recent SpaceX stock closing price was $148.18.

Still, the high demand and low float mean that there is a strong likelihood that purchasing the equity three months ago would have actually meant buying after it hit the market. 

Thus, a June 12 morning investment would have been made at $150 and would have led the position to drop 1.21% to $987.87 by the September 10 close. Purchasing in the evening would mean that the price was $160.95 per share, increasing the losses to 7.93% and holdings worth $920.66.

The most important SpaceX stock price catalyst in September Looking ahead, September 18 or a date several days after could trigger a large and rapid shift in the value of a SpaceX stock investment. 

Specifically, the Starship Flight 14 expected on or after that day and could mark a technological milestone for the company, as it will be the first attempt for the company’s vessels to achieve a stable orbit and deploy Starlink satellites.

If successful, the SpaceX launch could lead equity prices to rocket amidst a stellar confirmation that the firm’s core business remains at the cutting-edge.

On the other hand, experimental flights always run the risk of failing, and such an outcome might trigger a renewed downtrend.

$1,000 invested in SpaceX at IPO will be worth this much in 2027 Elsewhere and looking even further into the future, Wall Street analysts appear generally confident that investing $1,000 three months ago – or at essentially any possible moment before press time on September 11 – will eventually prove a winning bet.

SpaceX stock is overall considered a ‘Buy’ by institutional analysts and is, on average, anticipated to rocket to $225.62 in the next 12 months, per the data Finbold retrieved from TradingView on Friday.

Wall Street sets SpaceX stock price target for the next 12 months. Source: TipRanks Under the circumstances, a $1,000 SPCX investment made at the IPO price of $135 appears most likely to rise to $1,671.26 by mid-2027, could reach $5,925.93 given the Street high forecast of $800, but also might fall to $555.56 if the lowest $75 target proves correct.

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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.43%) was one of the biggest IPOs ever, with the company going public at a $1.8 trillion valuation, and an initial surge of buying sent SpaceX's valuation as high as $2.7 trillion.

But the enthusiasm faded quickly, and at its lowest point -- around mid-July -- SpaceX was valued at around $1.4 trillion -- erasing more than $1 trillion in market cap in just weeks.

The stock has rebounded a bit since then but is still down about 5% since its IPO, compared to the S&P 500's (^GSPC -0.58%) nearly 4% gains.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is confident his company can regain ground and says it will eventually become the most valuable company in the world. Here's how he plans to get SpaceX there -- and why he's probably wrong.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.

Musk's plan to turn SpaceX into the world's most valuable company Musk said on X (formerly Twitter) recently that SpaceX could generate $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2033, and he said in a separate post:

You don't seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals.

Musk is often overly optimistic about timelines and financial opportunities for his companies. Still, SpaceX is a leading player in rocket launches and AI, and both markets have huge potential. And it's the company's AI business that will be the biggest driver of its growth.

SpaceX management has said its total addressable market (TAM) for the company's AI business -- which includes its Grok AI and the sale of AI data center capacity to customers -- is $26.5 trillion.

It's not unusual for companies to throw out overinflated figures about how big their addressable markets are, especially as they're going public. And SpaceX is making some big bets in this space by building its massive Colossus AI data centers. Evercore ISI estimates that the company's capital expenditures could reach $360 billion by 2030, with most going toward AI investments.

The problem is that SpaceX has just $12.5 billion in total revenue in the first six months of this year. That's a far cry from $3.5 trillion. To put this into perspective, SpaceX would have to generate annual sales eight times Apple's 2025 total revenue to reach Musk's estimate.

And it's not just that it's a hard figure to reach; it's also that SpaceX faces immense AI competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Alphabet, and others. Microsoft, widely viewed as an AI success story right now because of its thriving Azure business, generates $100 billion in annual revenue from Azure.

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How investors should think about SpaceX's AI opportunity If you're considering investing in SpaceX right now, I think it's pretty irrelevant whether Musk thinks SpaceX will be the most valuable company in the world.

Instead, consider how much the company will need to spend to achieve its goals of becoming an AI powerhouse. SpaceX's capital expenditures already spiked 308% in the first half of this year (compared to the first six months of 2025) to $28.5 billion. And whopping 86% of that spending went to AI.

SpaceX will have to continue this very expensive spending spree just to reach even a sliver of Musk's overly ambitious revenue estimates.

The problem for Musk and SpaceX stock is that most investors are very wary of AI spending in the absence of profits. Profitable AI companies are growing at a healthy clip and are seeing their share prices rise -- think Microsoft, Micron Technology, Sandisk, and others -- but the AI trade overall is skeptical of negative free cash because of AI capital expenditures.

One key reason why SpaceX's stock is faltering right now is that investors don't believe the company's spending spree will pay off. And if SpaceX continues to ramp up the spending as it tries to dominate AI, I think investors could punish the stock even further.

The point here isn't that SpaceX will fail to be an influential AI player. It's that the company is already overplaying its hand by spending too much, and it's coming at a time when investors have little patience.

If Musk wants to build the world's most valuable company, he'll need everyday investors to believe that SpaceX is headed in the right direction, buy the stock, and then hold it for years to come.

As it stands right now, they're moving in the opposite direction.

Another classified mission demonstrates launch dominance while an approaching share unlock threatens substantially greater stock volatility. Summary

SpaceX’s rocket cadence is strengthening as its limited public float prepares to expand.

A classified Space Force payload put Falcon 9 on Thursday's launchpad for its 104th mission of 2026. Space Exploration Technologies SPCX, the space-launch and satellite-network company, climbed 1.8% to approximately $150.25. A successful flight from Vandenberg would lift SpaceX's total launch count across all vehicles to 106 this year.

That relentless pace follows Sunday's Falcon 9 mission, which carried 27 Starlink satellites into orbit. SpaceX's share of global launches has eased to roughly 49% from more than half last year, but the company remains the heavyweight champion in payload mass. A classified military customer adds another powerful signal: Falcon 9 is not merely feeding Starlink—it is critical national-security infrastructure.

The valuation picture looks far less comfortable. The graphic gives SpaceX a GF Score of just 15 out of 100, with financial strength standing out while profitability, growth, value and momentum remain weak. Meanwhile, about 2.3 billion shares could become eligible for trading before year-end, potentially expanding the current 2.6 billion-share float by roughly 88%. The rockets keep flying, but a flood of newly tradable stock could prove stronger than the next launch catalyst.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

A Wells Fargo analyst says SpaceX's wireless push will hurt carriers far less than investors fear, and the real beneficiaries may surprise anyone who assumed satellite and towers compete rather than cooperate.

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Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall used a CNBC segment on September 8 to reframe SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) wireless push. He argues that satellite-plus-spectrum architecture needs less ground infrastructure than a traditional fourth carrier, so the pain falls on incumbent telcos while tower REITs and cable operators quietly collect rent on whatever pieces SpaceX still has to lease.

Cahall told CNBC: “Telco just facing another competitor, a three player market going to a much smaller fourth player. That’s still a net negative for sure.”

The FCC just cleared SpaceX to absorb 65 MHz of EchoStar’s U.S. spectrum, and Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million as of Q2 2026. That makes the question urgent for anyone holding AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC), Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) or Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA).

What Cahall Said About the Fourth-Carrier Debate Cahall broke from the standard fourth-carrier framing. He said, “We don’t think it’s because the economics of adding a fourth player to the U.S. wireless market is so compelling. It’s that there are ulterior long term technology motives.”

Those motives sit in plain view. SpaceX’s Q2 connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year.

The EchoStar (NASDAQ:ECHO) transfer gives SpaceX a spectrum foundation it could not have assembled in time at auction. Management plans to integrate the 65 MHz “later next year” and build terrestrial hardware alongside the constellation.

Damage to carriers shows up first in pricing and margin pressure, with wholesale subscriber loss a slower, secondary risk. That matches what Verizon CEO Dan Schulman is telling investors.

Schulman said Verizon is “purposely shifting our mix towards durable recurring service revenues and away from low margin, highly promotional activity.” Carriers do that when they expect pricing to tighten.

Why the Satellite Architecture Changes the Math Cahall put the mechanics simply: “They don’t need nearly the same amount of spectrum, the same amount of tower and signal projection. They have a big and growing satellite constellation.”

Spectrum is expensive because supply is fixed and FCC auctions clear for tens of billions of dollars. An MVNO, or mobile virtual network operator, rents capacity on somebody else’s network rather than buying spectrum and towers of its own, and Wi-Fi offload dumps phone traffic onto fixed broadband so cellular capacity stays free.

SpaceX itself described a network of “little femtocells” and rooftop Starlink dishes handling terrestrial handoffs. That is capital-light compared to macro-tower densification.

The thesis has a real hole. If SpaceX routes around U.S. towers entirely with its own rooftop equipment, the tower leasing bump never lands.

Crown Castle, asked directly on its Q2 call, would say only that its sites offer “space, power, backhaul” and would welcome satellite operators as tenants. No signed agreement exists yet.

Who Collects the Checks If He’s Right Cahall gave the shopping list: “There would require towers. It would require a Wi-Fi offload MVNO with cable. So those could be two of the potential winners from a sector perspective.”

Tower REITs get paid regardless of which carrier wins the customer. American Tower yields about 3.93% with FY26 AFFO guided to $11.00 to $11.17 per share.

Crown Castle is the purer bet post-fiber divestiture, yielding around 5.5%, though AT&T contributes 28% of site rental revenue with a $774 million renewal cycle in 2028. SBA is the international grower, with international site leasing up 30.5% in Q2.

On the cable side, Charter’s Spectrum Mobile added 406,000 lines with mobile service revenue up 18.9% year over year to $1.095 billion. Comcast crossed 10 million wireless lines and offloads roughly 90% of traffic onto Wi-Fi.

The carriers face the opposite trend. Verizon’s fixed wireless net additions fell 30.6% year over year, the first visible mark of satellite broadband encroachment.

Is SPCX Stock a Buy? Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, with $3.54 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a $93.5 billion cash position. The stock trades at roughly 85 times trailing sales.

Among incumbents, T-Mobile is most exposed because its Direct-to-Cell partnership loses differentiation once SpaceX controls its own spectrum. TMUS shares are down 23.18% over the past year.

AT&T’s satellite-as-corner-case posture looks defensible, and CEO John Stankey argued the company can “get 98% of the traffic” without a wholesale satellite partner. Verizon’s 29.99% year-to-date rally already prices in the fiber pivot.

My read: infrastructure owners look like the cleaner exposure to this thesis, and Crown Castle offers the most direct tower exposure at a yield the carriers cannot match. SPCX carries the growth optionality for those comfortable with a triple-digit sales multiple, while CCI leans income-oriented at a materially lower valuation.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

IPO stands for initial public offering.

This is the process by which most companies enter the public markets, meaning their stock can be owned by a willing buyer. Start-ups and private companies typically go public with the help of investment banks, which underwrite the offering. The process takes several weeks. First, a company files a detailed prospectus, also known as an S-1, with the SEC, and then goes on a roadshow to pitch the IPO to investors.

Shortly before the offering, a listing price, or what the IPO buyers are paying, is set based on investor demand, and then the stock begins trading publicly. Once it's listed on an exchange, it can be bought and sold like any other stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

The traditional investing advice is to avoid IPOs. IPO stocks, typically defined as stocks that have gone public within the last year, are more volatile than the broad market, and they also underperform the S&P 500 on average. Historically, IPOs jump about 19% on their first day of trading, according to research shared in The Wall Street Journal. However, the average return of an IPO held from the end of its first trading day for three years is 21% lower than a comparable market index.

A lot of IPOs enter the market overhyped at high valuations and crash after an initial pop. We saw this recently with Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.86%), which is now trading slightly above its IPO price of $135 but lost more than 50% of its value from peak to trough after popping out of the gate.

There's a slew of other IPOs that went public during the pandemic, only to crash in the 2022 bear market. Some of those have bounced back to new heights, while others have struggled.

My contrarian take on buying an IPO In general, I think investors should steer clear of IPOs. I think that's especially true of overhyped issues like SpaceX, which typically crash after an initial pop. We saw something similar with Figma, another recent high-profile IPO, which is now trading below its IPO price even as it more than tripled in its initial trading days.

If you are going to buy this kind of IPO, you should wait until the initial hype cycle has completed, as the initial pop is almost always followed by a pullback. Some IPO stocks, like Airbnb, remain significantly above their IPO price but still underperform the market. Don't chase a hot IPO, and remember that valuation always matters over the long term.

However, other less-hyped IPOs don't have an initial pop and do go on to be big winners. With the benefit of two decades of hindsight, we can see that Netflix would have been a great IPO purchase. The streaming stock, which went public in 2002 when the market was still reeling from the dot-com bust, jumped just 12% on its opening day and then headed lower over the following months. Since then, it's been one of the best-performing stocks this century with market cap growth of roughly 1,000x. Netflix has a higher price-to-sales ratio now than it did when it went public.

Chipotle, which went public in 2006, doubled on its opening day but then delivered only modest growth over the next year. Additionally, the stock traded at a price-to-earnings ratio similar to levels we've seen in recent years, suggesting investors were ignoring its growth potential.

More recently, I think Viking Holdings (VIK -3.42%), the parent of the cruise line of Viking Cruises, is a good example of a winning IPO. The company went public with little fanfare, but had a strong business model, differentiated positioning in its industry, and a reasonable valuation.

The stock rose a modest 9% on its opening day and has continued to march higher since then, as the chart below shows.

VIK data by YCharts

What it means for investors Overall, IPOs are best treated with caution, especially in an era when so much of the gains accrue to the company before it goes public, as we saw with SpaceX, and are likely to see with OpenAI and Anthropic, which are aiming to go public in the coming months.

However, there are still winners to be found. Look for companies that have reasonable valuations, competitive advantages, and relatively little media attention as they go public. Viking Holdings won't be the last steady IPO winner.

Another 319 million shares can trade, with more coming Thursday. Summary

About 319 million SpaceX shares become eligible for trading Wednesday

Soon SpaceX (SPCX, Financials) will find out how much shares investors will buy. Wednesday brings another 319 million shares into play, offering staff and early investors another opportunity to cash out.

That sounds like a lot of possible selling. So far it hasn't worked out that way. Some 912 million shares unlocked Aug. 6, causing the stock to leap more than 6% that day and rise again the next session.

The second test was harder. Another 319 million shares became tradable Aug. 20 and shares plummeted, briefly dipping below the $135 IPO price before recovering.

Now we're in round three. An unlock does not mean all shareholders will sell. It just removes the constraint that they couldn't do that.

The distinction counts because additional 59.1 million shares become eligible Thursday, with more supply still to come.

Wall Street stays constructive. Wells Fargo has a $212 price target, while Pivotal Research recently initiated coverage at Buy with a $220 goal.

Investors care less about Wednesday's price activity than whether heavy insider selling actually shows up.

Another big unlock might be absorbed by demand and start to take some of the edge off the issue of supply post-IPO on the stock.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

SpaceX SPCX stock fell around 4% on Wednesday to around $147, giving back most of Tuesday’s 3.7% gain as another major batch of shares became eligible for trading.

The stock has nevertheless gained more than 7% over the past month.

Wednesday’s decline came as the company’s third scheduled lockup tranche released up to 319 million Class A shares, worth roughly $49 billion at recent prices.

Another 59.1 million affiliate shares are scheduled to unlock Thursday.

SpaceX entered Wednesday’s unlock in a stronger position than it did the previous release.

The stock closed at $153.47 on September 8, compared with $139.65 ahead of the August unlock.

About 912 million shares became available on August 6, while another 319 million were unlocked on August 20.

Over 650 million shares are expected to become available in September, followed by more than 630 million in October.

By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.

The growing supply of tradable shares has been an important factor in SpaceX’s early market performance.

Investors have been cautious about buying ahead of potential profit-taking by early shareholders, contributing to the stock’s decline below $105, well beneath its $135 IPO price.

But the August unlock also showed that a large increase in available shares does not necessarily trigger a sustained sell-off.

More than 900 million shares became eligible for sale on August 6, yet SpaceX recovered above its IPO price within days.

That leaves investors watching whether the latest tranche produces similar selling pressure or whether demand can absorb the additional supply.

Starship remains key to SpaceX valuationBeyond the immediate lockup overhang, investors are also weighing how much of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential depends on Starship.

Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said Tuesday that making Starship fully reusable is central to determining whether SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation can be justified.

His $220 price target is based on Starship achieving 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and rapid turnaround times.

“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said.

“If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”

The potential payoff is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9 rocket.

A fully reusable system could allow SpaceX to launch missions more frequently while reducing the cost of each flight.

But Starship remains under development. SpaceX has conducted only two tests of the third and latest version of the Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster.

The company has previously warned that development delays could continue and that significant problems could hurt its business.

SpaceX is expected to attempt its 14th Starship test as soon as next week, following a broadly successful mission in July.

During that flight, SpaceX deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites before they burned up during planned reentry.

The company has not yet disclosed the objectives for the 14th mission.

SpaceX has already spent at least $15 billion developing the vehicle, while its plans to expand launch capacity could require considerably more capital.

The company plans to spend at least $100 billion on a new spaceport in Louisiana, primarily dedicated to Starship operations.

A multi-billion-dollar insider unlock window just opened at the newly public space giant, and the shockwave is spreading across the entire sector. Here is what the next few trading sessions will reveal about whether insiders plan to cash out or…

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is down 5% to $146.35 in midday trading Wednesday as the company’s 90-calendar-day insider share unlock milestone comes due. The tranche of early-release-eligible shares now becoming sellable represents up to $47.2 billion in potential insider selling pressure, per SpaceX’s own IPO prospectus. It’s a heavy overhang for a stock that floated only a small slice of itself in June and has traded with elevated volatility ever since.

The pressure is bleeding into the broader space complex. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is off 3% on the session, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.5%. That gap places the day’s damage squarely on satellite and launch names, framing this as a corner-of-the-market supply event rather than a systemic risk-off flush across large caps.

The Unlock Milestone Explained SpaceX’s IPO prospectus set out a staggered, accelerated insider unlock schedule tied to time-based milestones following the company’s June debut, rather than the single lockup expiry most newly public companies use. That structure replaces the 180-day cliff with a series of dated releases, which keeps supply questions in front of investors for months rather than compressing them into a single expiration day.

The IPO floated only a small fraction of shares outstanding, so each scheduled unlock is disproportionately large relative to the stock that actually trades every day. SpaceX founder Elon Musk’s own stake remains locked for roughly a year from the IPO and sits outside today’s tranche. That arithmetic is the real reason today’s release carries more weight than a typical lockup expiry at a similarly sized large cap, where the float is already broad enough to absorb concentrated selling.

Eligibility to sell doesn’t guarantee that insiders will sell, and Form 4 filings over the next several sessions will show how much of the eligible stock is actually reaching the market. The headline unlock figure sets a ceiling on possible supply, and historical patterns at other high-profile IPOs suggest realized selling typically comes in well below the theoretical maximum. Diversified holders often stagger sales to avoid moving the price against themselves, which further softens the practical impact of a scheduled release.

Peers Feel the Ripple Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 4% to $63.18, giving back part of a sharp run earlier this month that followed a fresh sell-side buy call. Shares are up 55% over the past year even after today’s slide. The move looks like sympathy selling rather than a company-specific development, since AST SpaceMobile hasn’t put out a release into today’s session.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 3% to $63.92, matching the sector-wide drift. Still, shares of RKLB are up 34% over the past year on the strength of a record backlog and pending acquisitions in satellite communications. Both names sit inside the Procure Space ETF, which is why a scheduled event at the sector’s flagship listed name drags them along on the session.

What to Watch Investors can watch for whether today’s supply pressure spills into Thursday’s session or fades as insiders demonstrate restraint. Volume patterns in SpaceX shares over the next several sessions could offer the first hard read on how much of the eligible stock is actually reaching the market versus how much simply remains legally available for sale. Option-market skew in the space names could also flag whether hedgers are pricing in a follow-through move rather than a one-day fade.

The next dated event is the following unlock milestone on SpaceX’s schedule, and the pattern set this week could shape how the rest of the sector trades into it. A risk-off tone in oil and interest rates is adding a mild secondary headwind on the same session, but the scheduled unlock remains the dated cause of today’s move rather than any macro shift or change in fundamentals.

Your position sizing in space names should reflect that scheduled supply calendar, not just launch cadence or backlog growth at individual companies. With Musk’s own shares locked for months longer, the ownership signal from the founder remains unchanged, and today’s action reflects mechanics rather than a change in the business at SpaceX or its listed peers. That framing keeps the day’s slide in perspective as a mechanical repricing rather than a signal about the growth trajectory of the space economy.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Nykredit A S bought a new position in shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Free Report) in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm bought 5,867 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,002,000.

Several other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of SPCX. KERR FINANCIAL PLANNING Corp bought a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the 2nd quarter valued at about $566,000. Burkett Financial Services LLC acquired a new stake in shares of SpaceX in the second quarter valued at about $70,000. Dogwood Wealth Management LLC acquired a new stake in SpaceX during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $139,000. Dynamic Advisor Solutions LLC bought a new position in SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $3,383,000. Finally, Apella Capital LLC bought a new position in SpaceX during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $452,000.

SpaceX News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting SpaceX this week:

Positive Sentiment: SpaceX is preparing Starship’s 14th test flight, with the larger V3 vehicle intended to demonstrate improved performance and support Elon Musk’s long-term plans for lunar and Mars missions. Successful testing could strengthen the company’s growth narrative. SpaceX lines up Starship’s 14th test flight Positive Sentiment: The company completed its 80th Starlink mission of 2026, reinforcing launch reliability and the recurring-revenue potential of its satellite-internet business. Recent quarterly revenue rose 91.9% year over year to $7.81 billion, while adjusted expectations reportedly exceeded consensus. SpaceX launches 80th Starlink mission Positive Sentiment: Several market commentaries highlight long-term upside, with one cited median price target near $216 and potential gains of roughly 46% from recent levels. These views rely on continued Starlink expansion, Starship progress and possible orbital data-center opportunities. What a $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth Neutral Sentiment: Plans to launch orbital data centers as early as late 2027 add a potentially large new growth avenue, but industry experts reportedly view meaningful scale as more likely in the 2030s because of technical, cost and infrastructure hurdles. Data centers in space: Four big obstacles Negative Sentiment: A September lock-up or share-unlock event could release as many as 319 million additional shares. Potential insider selling may increase volatility and pressure the stock, particularly after its sharp August recovery. What could the Sept. 9 lock-up expiration mean? Negative Sentiment: German rival Isar Aerospace reached orbit on its second test flight and claims a €10 billion customer pipeline, signaling intensifying competition in launch services and potentially challenging SpaceX’s dominance over time. SpaceX rival launches rocket in historic first Negative Sentiment: Critics remain concerned about SpaceX’s extreme valuation, continuing net losses and a price-to-earnings ratio below zero. OpenAI’s decision to end model access to Cursor after SpaceX’s acquisition of its parent company also introduces integration and technology-relationship risk. OpenAI cuts Cursor off from its models SpaceX Price Performance SpaceX stock opened at $147.95 on Tuesday. The firm has a market cap of $1.93 trillion and a P/E ratio of -1,643.89. SpaceX has a 12-month low of $104.83 and a 12-month high of $225.64. The company’s fifty day moving average is $135.83. The company has a quick ratio of 4.99, a current ratio of 5.12 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported ($0.09) EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.26) by $0.17. The company had revenue of $7.81 billion during the quarter. The firm’s revenue was up 91.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts expect that SpaceX will post -0.15 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of equities analysts recently weighed in on SPCX shares. Royal Bank Of Canada downgraded shares of SpaceX from an “outperform” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, August 7th. Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage on shares of SpaceX in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. They set a “buy” rating and a $190.00 price target on the stock. Wolfe Research reiterated an “outperform” rating and set a $175.00 price target on shares of SpaceX in a report on Wednesday, August 26th. Daiwa Securities Group began coverage on SpaceX in a research report on Thursday, July 2nd. They issued a “neutral” rating and a $175.00 price objective for the company. Finally, KGI Securities downgraded SpaceX from an “outperform” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Monday, June 22nd. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-five have given a Buy rating, eight have issued a Hold rating and seven have given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $221.20.

Get Our Latest Stock Report on SPCX

About SpaceX (Free Report)

SpaceX, or Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is an American aerospace company focused on the design, manufacture and launch of advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company develops launch vehicles and space systems used for commercial, government and scientific missions, with a strong emphasis on lowering the cost of access to space through reusable rocket technology.

Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX has built a broad portfolio of products and services that includes the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the Dragon spacecraft and the Starship development program.

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