SpaceX SPCX shares extended their decline on Tuesday as investors continued to weigh the prospect of a wave of insider share sales ahead of the company's first post-IPO lock-up expiration.
The SpaceX stock fell more than 5% to around $107, well below its IPO price of $135.
The broader market was mixed, with the S&P 500 little changed while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF declined 3%, led by a 9% drop in Micron.
SpaceX has now erased more than $1.2 trillion in market value from its post-IPO peak, with shares falling sharply from a record high of $225.64 reached in June.
Monday marked the stock's 13th decline in the past 16 trading sessions, with shares closing down more than 1% at $113.50.
Investor attention has increasingly shifted to the expiration of SpaceX's post-IPO lock-up agreements, beginning shortly after the company is expected to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4.
Two business days later, early investors will be eligible to sell nearly one billion shares, significantly more than the 629 million shares sold in the company's June 12 initial public offering.
Lock-up agreements restrict company insiders and early investors from selling shares immediately after an IPO.
As those restrictions expire over the coming year, more than 6.4 billion additional shares could become eligible for sale.
Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens said expectations of increased share supply may already be weighing on the stock.
"It's conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup," Owens said.
He added that substantial selling is likely once restrictions begin to expire because many early investors have held their positions for years and have low cost bases.
"We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low cost basis and long holding periods," Owens said.
Following the first lock-up expiration on August 6, another 455.8 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale around August 20.
Additional lock-up expirations are scheduled throughout September and continue into the first anniversary of the IPO.
Most of the scheduled lock-up releases do not include shares owned by Chief Executive Elon Musk, certain senior executives or board members.
Musk's holdings are expected to become eligible for sale in June 2027, although he has previously said he does not intend to sell.
KeyBanc reiterated its Sector Weight rating on SpaceX, saying continued progress on Starship remains the most important driver of the company's long-term growth prospects.
The firm described Starship Flight 13 as near perfection and said future flight tests will be critical to achieving full reusability and the rapid launch cadence needed to support the company's long-term ambitions.
KeyBanc also said it is seeking additional details on SpaceX's decision to stop accepting Falcon 9 launch bookings after 2028, particularly as Starship has yet to demonstrate sustained, rapid launch operations.
According to the firm, Starship underpins several of SpaceX's key growth initiatives, including the expansion of the next-generation Starlink satellite network, orbital data centres, and future lunar and Mars missions.
KeyBanc said investor attention is increasingly shifting from technical progress to the pace at which those initiatives can be commercialised.
The firm said SpaceX's valuation is becoming increasingly dependent on the timing of future milestones and the company's ability to commercialise its next generation of space and communications technologies.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.25%), otherwise known as SpaceX, went public last month in the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, sliding into the top 10 most valuable companies in the country. It briefly overtook Amazon after crossing $225 per share, up from its $135 IPO price tag, but even as SpaceX falls below that price, it remains the seventh-most-valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Meta Platforms.
Unfortunately for IPO investors, SpaceX stock is now 43% off its highs. Does that create a buying opportunity for new investors? The company will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4, its first earnings report as a public company. What makes this report unique is that, under the IPO's structure, insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares two days after it's released.
Let's see how that might impact the stock and what a $10,000 investment might be worth the day after the report.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Wall Street wants from SpaceX stock As an Elon Musk-led company with the largest IPO ever, by far, there's been significant hype around SpaceX. But at some point, the investment thesis has to touch reality, and it might be happening sooner than investors expected.
Until now, investors have had access to some of SpaceX's most recent financials through its investor prospectus. This earnings report will be its first test as a public company, where it will be evaluated on its progress. Wall Street is looking for $6.9 billion in revenue and a $0.28 loss per share, but it didn't provide the 2025 second-quarter results in the prospectus, so year-over-year comparisons will be revealed at the time of the report. The revenue figure would be a 47% increase over the first-quarter results, and the loss per share would be substantially better than the $1.27 in the first quarter.
What else is happening Most IPO stocks have a six-month period when insiders are restricted from selling their shares, but SpaceX's restricted period is staggered, with the first phase ending on Aug. 6. According to the prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares are eligible to be sold on the second full day of trading after the report, with another 455.8 million more if the SpaceX stock price is higher than the IPO price for five out of the 10 days leading up to the report. As of now, being in the 10-day period, that isn't looking likely.
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As the report's release gets closer, the stock continues to slide. If SpaceX stock beats expectations, it's likely to rise, and it could be the Musk superfans who drive the rally. If it mimics the stock's first day of trading, it will gain 19.6%, and a $10,000 SpaceX investment on Aug. 4 would be worth $11,960.
More likely, though, the stock could sell off even further as investors anticipate more shares coming to market, especially if results come in below expectations. If the stock falls as much as it did the first day it fell after the IPO, or 5%, a $10,000 investment would be worth $9,500. But if it plummets even further, and I anticipate it will, it could get a lot lower.
On June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate rewrote Wall Street's record books. Including the underwriters' overallotment, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX -1.25%) raised $85.7 billion and vaulted to a valuation of nearly $3 trillion just days after its initial public offering (IPO).
But this initial buzz has quickly faded. Since peaking at $225.64 per share on June 16, SpaceX shares have plunged roughly 50% to $113.37 (its after-hours closing price on July 24).
Statistically, the average year-one max drawdown in technology-driven IPOs over the last 14 years is 55%, according to data from Truist Financial. Thus far, SpaceX is par for the course. However, history suggests that things may get considerably worse before they have any chance of turning around.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's IPO-mania has faded away Aside from the buzz of going public, SpaceX's stock was initially driven by newly amended rules that allowed for its early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000. Investors piled in with the expectation that passive/index funds would spend tens of billions of dollars purchasing SpaceX shares.
Unfortunately, reality is beginning to set in. Musk's trillion-dollar AI and space giant is set to report its quarterly operating results on Aug. 4. While AI start-up xAI has landed a few notable compute deals, SpaceX isn't particularly close to recurring profits, nor has it yet established that its operations are sustainable.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
-- Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 Additionally, some early release-eligible insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) can begin selling some of their shares two trading days after SpaceX reports its quarterly results. SpaceX's accelerated and staggered share unlock schedule may be nothing more than a massive wealth transfer from retail investors to insiders.
Valuation concerns are also clearly in the picture. Even after a 50% drawdown from its all-time high, SpaceX is trading at an estimated 38 times forecast sales this year. No company at the forefront of any game-changing trend (let alone two: AI and the space economy) has ever sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 for any considerable period.
Image source: Getty Images.
Historical precedent suggests SpaceX can lose another 50% However, history might just be the most glaring issue for SpaceX.
Although AI is the hottest technological trend since the advent and proliferation of the internet in the mid-1990s, we've witnessed every next-big-thing technology for more than three decades navigate a bubble-bursting event. This is to say that investors have persistently overshot the adoption and/or optimization timeline of every game-changing technology for decades -- and there's no reason to believe AI is an exception.
-- Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) May 8, 2026 SpaceX securing significant compute deals from Alphabet and Anthropic demonstrates that AI doesn't have an adoption issue. But we're likely several years away from businesses optimizing AI solutions to boost their sales and profits. It took until after the dot-com bubble burst before internet-driven companies understood how to maximize this technology, and AI is likely on a similar path.
According to SpaceX's prospectus, xAI represents 93% of its estimated $28.5 trillion addressable market. If the AI bubble bursts, as history suggests it will, SpaceX will have little in the way of a foundation to fall back on.
Based on history, SpaceX could realistically lose another 50% before its valuation even comes close to making sense.
Since its initial public offering (IPO) back in June, the hype surrounding Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%) has taken a serious breather. After surging from its IPO price of $135 per share to prices topping $225 per share, this popular name among space stocks has since given back its gains, and then some.
Worse yet, even as SpaceX has fallen back to Earth following moonshot moves earlier this summer, don't assume that shares in the Elon Musk-founded space exploration and artificial intelligence (AI) company have hit rock bottom. I think shares could fall by another 50% between now and Christmas for two key reasons.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's valuation math doesn't add up Despite the recent pullback, SpaceX remains richly priced compared to its current operating performance. At around $110 per share, the company has a market cap of $1.45 trillion. Sell-side consensus calls for SpaceX to generate sales of $73.1 billion and earnings per share of $0.65 in 2027.
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In other words, the stock currently trades for 19.8 times estimated 2027 sales, and around 169 times estimated 2027 earnings. I'm not the only one who believes this is a rich valuation for SpaceX. Recent research by Morningstar, using a discounted cash flow model, values the company at around $780 million, or less than half today's market cap.
An upcoming trigger for a pullback Even if SpaceX manages to live up to sky-high expectations, there's another factor that could severely impact valuation in the months ahead. SpaceX's float of 281 million shares makes up just 2.1% of the dilution-adjusted overall share count.
The vast majority of shares remain in the hands of insiders, including Musk, as well as pre-IPO investors. These investors remain subject to a series of lockup provisions. In the months ahead, these lockup provisions will gradually expire, with a large portion expiring on Dec. 8, 2026. As these lockups end, it could put greater pressure on the stock. With valuation still sky-high and a negative catalyst looming, keep an eye on SpaceX stock, but don't buy it today.
Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%) is a spectacular business with visions, ideas, and ambitions that, if accomplished, would absolutely change humanity forever. It's also an overvalued stock that has spent most of the weeks since its IPO reminding investors how gravity works.
If you had invested $10,000 in SpaceX at its IPO price of $135, your investment would be worth about $8,200 as of this writing, assuming you held on to your shares.
If, however, you bought the stock at its opening day price of about $150, your investment would be worth about $7,400. By contrast, if you had bought SpaceX at its peak price of about $225, then your shares would be worth roughly $4,900.
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Now here's an interesting fact: Even after shedding over 50% from its peak price, SpaceX still carries a roughly $1.45 trillion market cap. It trades at about 78 times sales and about 40 times estimated sales, according to Barron's.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX, by traditional metrics, still looks pricey, even after the landslide that has wiped out more than $1 trillion from its peak market price.
SpaceX is set to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Aug. 4, after market close. Unless that report surprises Wall Street with unexpected good news, such as revenue growing at a faster-than-expected pace, I don't anticipate this stock's downward trajectory changing for now.
For me, SpaceX is still a stock to watch, but not one to rush out and buy just yet. Investors might be safer buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds SpaceX than investing directly in the company at today's valuation.
Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%), better known as SpaceX, has underperformed since its IPO. While the stock initially spiked in the days after going public, it has since sold off and now trades below $120 per share.
For reference, its pre-IPO price was set at $135, and the first price at which investors could access it was around $150 per share.
With it being well below those levels now, investors may be wondering if now is the perfect time to buy the dip on the stock. I think there are many things investors should be aware of, and all of that leads me to conclude that investors are better off waiting a year before diving into SpaceX's stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX has many events upcoming that could sink the stock more At its core, SpaceX is really a telecommunications company. Its future may hold something completely different, but its current state is that its Starlink internet service accounted for over half the company's revenue during 2025. Historically, internet businesses haven't been great investments, yet SpaceX is highly valued.
The primary argument is that Starlink is just the first of many offerings of a space economy and that the opportunity is much greater. That's a valid point, but that's still years, if not decades, away from that impacting SpaceX's finances.
What investors must understand is that you're not buying the stock for what the company is now but what it could become years later. That's a hallmark of investing in Elon Musk-led companies, and if you're comfortable with that, SpaceX may be an OK stock to invest in. But if you're not, countless other fantastic companies will make incredible returns as well.
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Even if you are a believer, staying out of SpaceX may be advisable for at least the next year. The main reason is that insiders still cannot sell shares because the lockup period hasn't expired for many investors. This will flood the market with new shares, causing the price to plummet.
Second, it's best to get a year's worth of reports out into the public eye. That way, investors can see what the business truly looks like rather than a one-time pre-IPO snapshot.
We'll get a new look at SpaceX's business on its first earnings announcement on Aug. 4. I'll be curious to see what SpaceX says, but it will take a lot for me to start investing, as there are just too many unknowns to warrant investing in it right now.
Weeks before its expected acquisition by SpaceX closes, AI coding startup Cursor is making its biggest push into India yet, launching its first country-specific subscription as the company bets on one of the world’s largest developer markets to drive its next stage of growth.
On Monday, the startup introduced Cursor Start, a ₹649-a-month (about $7) subscription built specifically for India — and priced well below Cursor’s standard $20-a-month Pro subscription.
The move reflects India’s growing importance to Cursor’s business. The startup says India is already its third-largest market globally and home to its highest concentration of power users, with its user base in the country more than tripling over the past year.
That scale, coupled with India’s deep pool of software engineering talent, made it the first market where Cursor chose to localize pricing, Simon Green, Cursor’s head of Asia-Pacific and Japan, told TechCrunch. “We felt that we had an opportunity there to right-size the commercial model and drive scale,” Green said. “The technical competency of the country and the engineering talent that already exists make it a very natural fit.”
India has emerged as one of the world’s largest software developer hubs. Earlier this year, GitHub said that the country has more than 27 million developers on its platform, second only to the U.S., with more than two million joining in 2026 alone.
Cursor Start includes access to Cursor’s Composer 2.5 model and Grok 4.5, with higher usage limits than the free tier, alongside cloud agents, its iOS app, plugins, Model Context Protocol support, hooks, and skills. The startup said the plan is aimed at developers who need more AI-assisted coding capacity than the free tier offers without upgrading to its full Pro subscription.
The lower-priced plan is intended to broaden access rather than replace Cursor’s flagship offering, Green said. Unlike the $20-a-month Pro subscription, Start does not include access to frontier AI models from providers such as OpenAI and Anthropic, or advanced features including Bugbot, Auto Mode, Automations, and the Cursor SDK.
The plan is billed in Indian rupees and supports payments through credit and debit cards as well as India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI).
Green told TechCrunch that Cursor would use multiple checks to ensure the India-only subscription is available only to individual users in the country, including measures to deter people from accessing the plan through virtual private networks (VPNs).
Cursor is not alone in tailoring its pricing for India. OpenAI and Anthropic have also rolled out India-specific plans over the past year as global AI companies compete for users in one of the world’s fastest-growing AI markets.
While Cursor Start is initially limited to India, Green told TechCrunch that the startup could expand localized pricing to other markets if the model proves successful.
“We will continue to do everything we can to fuel the demand and serve those clients that are using us,” Green said. “Now, if this model proves that we could take it to other markets, perhaps we will. But I think it’d be crazy to say we would never do it elsewhere.”
OpenAI provides one precedent for this strategy, having launched its sub-$5 ChatGPT Go in India before expanding the lower-priced subscription to other markets.
In addition to the localized pricing strategy, Cursor is also expanding its presence in India through new hires. Green told TechCrunch that the startup recently hired its first salesperson in India and expects another leader to join in Delhi. The company is also building out its a government affairs office, alongside three technical customer support hires, as it expands its presence in Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Mumbai.
Cursor’s enterprise push is still in its early stages in India, Green said, where adoption has so far been driven largely by individual developers, startups, and universities. He said Cursor sees significant opportunities in sectors including banking and large enterprises as it expands its local sales efforts.
Green said, the India-specific pricing was designed to be commercially sustainable rather than a loss leader. He said the lower-priced plan is viable because it is built around Cursor’s own AI models, which carry lower operating costs than relying primarily on third-party frontier models.
Cursor’s India expansion comes a little over a month after Elon Musk’s SpaceX agreed to acquire the AI coding startup in a $60 billion all-stock deal, following SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering. The acquisition is expected to close in Q3. However, SpaceX has been partnered with Cursor since April to develop a next-generation “coding and knowledge work AI.”
Green said Cursor will continue to operate independently until the transaction closes and that the company’s India expansion plans were already in motion before the deal. Once the acquisition closes, however, Green said SpaceX’s existing presence in India through Starlink could help Cursor expand faster by lowering commercial and operational barriers.
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SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares fell to an all-time low on Monday, dropping to $108.66 in early trading before recovering some ground to trade around $111 by late morning, as investors weighed concerns over an upcoming share lock-up expiration, valuation, capital spending and financing plans.
The stock has now lost nearly half its value from its post-initial public offering peak despite the company recently completing the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket.
Investor sentiment has been pressured by the company's upcoming first quarterly earnings release on August 4, which will be followed two days later by the expiration of its IPO lock-up period. The event is expected to allow early investors and employees to sell up to 911.5 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible locked stock, raising concerns about increased share supply.
The sell-off has also reflected questions over SpaceX's valuation. Even after Monday's decline, the company carried a market capitalization of roughly $1.46 trillion, a level some investors view as difficult to justify relative to its reported 2025 revenue of less than $19 billion.
Investors have also focused on the company's elevated capital expenditures tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, including multibillion-dollar investments in computing resources, amid uncertainty over when those investments may generate meaningful returns.
Additional pressure followed reports that SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion through its first investment-grade bond offering, a move that underscores the company's significant funding needs as it continues to invest for growth before reaching positive cash flow.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -1.36%), which also goes by SpaceX, reports its latest earnings numbers on Aug. 4, and the lockup period for insiders begins to expire soon afterward. While the stock has been in a tailspin in recent weeks, I believe it's destined to fall even lower.
The market has been increasingly bearish on the stock due to its heightened valuation. Not only will expectations be high for the business to produce a solid quarter because of its high price tag, but there may also be an incentive for insiders to sell the stock while it's as high as it is.
Image source: Getty Images.
Investors may soon have more reasons to dump the stock When SpaceX went public, investors seemed willing to buy the stock at almost any price, regardless of how obscene it was. But over time, as investors have come to realize the risk it possesses and perhaps pay more attention to its lack of profitability and need for cash, the appetite has cooled significantly. Investors who missed out on the IPO can now buy it below its IPO price of $135, and even that isn't luring them in.
Next week, on Aug. 4, when SpaceX reports its first earnings report, the spotlight will be on its growth and earnings, which many investors may have glossed over amid the excitement around the IPO. If SpaceX doesn't show significant improvement, which I don't expect to be the case, that could trigger a deeper sell-off. Plus, insiders will also be able to begin offloading some of their shares a few days later. That extra supply hitting the market may push the share price down even further and raise concerns about how much confidence insiders have in the business (if there's a flurry of selling).
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SpaceX still looks incredibly overvalued It's remarkable just how volatile SpaceX has been in such a short period. When it first went public, its valuation rose quickly, reaching far above $2 trillion in market cap and rivaling some of the biggest tech giants in the world. And now, its share price is down around 50% from its highs.
And yet, despite its market cap being less than $1.5 trillion today, SpaceX remains grossly overvalued given its lack of profitability and significant cash burn. It isn't a business that even looks to be worth $1 trillion. Next week, as there's more focus on its earnings, there could be another big wave of selling.
It's been less than two months since Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.25%) completed the largest IPO in history. In this short time frame, SpaceX stock opened at $150, rocketed to a peak of around $226 just days later, and has since plummeted to $113. That represents a 50% decline from its post-IPO high. The question smart investors are asking is whether SpaceX's return from orbit creates a chance to buy the dip, or if it's time to step aside.
Image source: Getty Images.
What fueled SpaceX's initial pop? SpaceX's early frenzy was fueled by a mix of narrative and momentum. The company's reusable rocket technology and expanding Starlink constellation already positioned it as a dominant player in commercial spaceflight. Layered on top is SpaceX's aggressive push into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including new capacity agreements with hyperscalers like Anthropic and Alphabet's Google Cloud.
CEO Elon Musk's personal brand amplifies every development around SpaceX. His track record with Tesla and other entrepreneurial ventures has the power to turn ordinary product updates into market-moving events. Against this backdrop, it's not surprising that momentum investors and day traders piled into SpaceX stock, treating the company like a high-beta growth vehicle rather than a traditional industrial company.
Nonstop media coverage of launch milestones, satellite deployments, and valuation records further fueled interest from retail investors. In the first couple of weeks, SpaceX stock behaved less like a newly public aerospace company and more like a hype-driven momentum story.
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Why is SpaceX stock cratering? The sell-off in SpaceX stock is a product of normal post-IPO digestion combined with company-specific concerns. Early investors booked quick gains once the initial pop faded, creating natural selling pressure. In addition, recent launch aborts were a sobering reminder to the market that operational execution is never guaranteed.
Around the same time, broader sentiment around AI stocks started to cool, making SpaceX's premium valuation harder to justify. Expirations of lock-up agreements and a $25 billion bond issuance added to the sense that the supply of outstanding shares could increase over the next several months.
Ultimately, enthusiasm is fading because the thesis around investing in SpaceX is shifting from a visionary story to one of concrete evidence of sustainable profitability and consistent operational execution.
Where will SpaceX stock trade one year after its IPO? Let's take a look at comparable IPOs and analyze how sharply stock trajectories can diverge after their market debut.
In late 2020, Snowflake opened at $245 and closed its first day of trading around $254. One year later, Snowflake was trading around $323, implying a gain of roughly 32% from its opening-day print. Data analytics darling Palantir Technologies went public around the same time as Snowflake, opening at $10 per share. Within one year, Palantir stock hovered around $24 -- more than double its debut price.
More recently, Figma opened at $85 and closed its first day of trading around $115. Just days later, shares had jumped to a high of $122. Nearly a year later, Figma stock sits at just $20 -- a decline of 83% from its post-IPO peak.
Uber followed a similar path to that of Figma. While shares opened around $42, shares cratered by as much as 64% within one year. Granted, part of the sell-off was driven by concerns around the COVID-19 pandemic and how it would affect the travel industry. Even so, Uber was only able to partially recover from its drawdown, settling near $32 -- down about 24% from its open -- as ongoing operating losses and concerns over competition weighed on sentiment.
Applying these patterns to SpaceX leads to a more nuanced outlook. Upside tailwinds include the scale of the company's addressable market-spanning connectivity, space exploration, and AI. Meanwhile, the obvious downside risks of persistent cash burn, the possibility of additional launch setbacks, and a sustained rotation away from high-multiple growth names remain.
Given these variables, I think SpaceX stock could dip below $100 in the near term as lock-up periods expire and investors increasingly demand measurable progress from the company's earnings reports. While returning to the offering price of $135 by next June is plausible, a lot of things would need to go right. This includes a series of clean Starship flights that expand payload capacity, Starlink subscriber growth that begins offsetting the operating losses of the overall company, and an investor base that rewards long-duration AI initiatives.
Simple math shows that a $5,000 investment at SpaceX's current stock price of $113 would be worth less than $4,400 if the stock falls below $100 (12% decline), or about $5,900 if shares reach $135 (18% gain). Given the wide range of possibilities, I think the more disciplined approach to investing in SpaceX is waiting for clearer evidence of execution progress. While a move toward $135 would represent a solid recovery, the underlying fundamentals would still need to catch up with the original story.
What's one trillion between a trillionaire and his biggest fans?
SpaceX has now erased more than $1.2 trillion in market cap since its high price of $225.64 in June – almost exactly the value of Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, whose shares just fell to near one-year lows. On Monday, SpaceX fell for the 13th session out of the last 16, shedding more than 1% to end at $113.50.
SpaceX in the past five trading days
While some of the options flows are getting more balanced between bulls and bears, the biggest single SpaceX trades of the day on Monday were neutral to bullish. Small speculators continue to buy fat-chance calls that need the crashing stock to quickly turn around and double.
More puts traded than calls by volume Monday, with traders buying 106,000 calls compared to 77,000 puts, though the majority of the $442 million in premium was tied to puts. The most popular contract by volume was the 330-strike call expiring Friday, a contract that goes for 10 cents and has a roughly one-third of 1% chance of working, according to ThinkOrSwim data.
Four of the five biggest trades by premium were neutral or bullish, Cboe LiveVol data show. That included two giant put-spread sellers, including one multimillion-dollar sale of in-the-money put spreads that need SpaceX to rally, as well as someone who collected $1.8 million selling 5,200 of the 100-strike puts expiring Oct. 16 and buying 7,000 of the 85-strike puts with the same expiry.
"As an investor it's early – as a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex," said Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist for Prosper Trading Academy in Chicago.
One thing's certain: SpaceX is offering traders one of the wildest rides in the market. While earnings are typically volatility-reducing events, that may not necessarily be the case after next week's report.
SpaceX's first earnings report since its initial public offering paves the way for investors to sell 20% of their eligible locked-up stock, a total of up to 911.5 million shares, on the second full trading day immediately following the first earnings release date — that is, Aug. 6.
"I don't think the lock-up on SpaceX will be as bad as everyone fears," Moon said. "But it's not going to help the cause either."
Next month, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.02%), better known as SpaceX, will share its first financial update with investors since it went public. On Aug 4, investors will get to see how many Starlink subscribers it has added and how much it's spending on its artificial intelligence efforts.
While the update, financial outlook, and comments from CEO Elon Musk and his executive team will provide important information for investors, another event two days later could have an even bigger impact on the stock: SpaceX's first lockup period will expire.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Could investors rush to sell SpaceX on Aug. 6? When SpaceX went public, it sold roughly 5% of its total shares. The shareholders who own the other 95% of the company are restricted from selling their shares in the open market until set lockup expiration dates. The first of those expirations comes on the second full trading day after its second-quarter earnings report. That will be Aug. 6.
Most restricted shareholders will be able to sell up to 20% of their shares on that date. If SpaceX stock trades at 30% above its IPO price for five of the 10 trading days preceding the earnings report, they'll be permitted to sell an additional 10% of shares. However, the stock is trading below its IPO price as of this writing, and has been for almost two weeks now.
The first lockup expiration will be a test of how well the market can absorb additional stock now that the IPO excitement has worn off. If early investors cash out the maximum amount allowed, that would amount to about $106 billion in selling at the stock's price as of this writing.
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Individual investors will have some help from passive index investors. The Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000, among others, will increase their weightings of the stock in their indexes as the float increases. But that won't happen instantly; most indexes review weightings quarterly. So most of the selling will have to be absorbed by a market that hasn't been too excited about SpaceX stock since the end of June.
The stock has fallen by more than 33% in July so far, indicating more sellers in the market than buyers. Add to that the pressure from the lockup expiration, and it could push the stock price even lower.
On the other hand, Wall Street has always known about the lockup expiration that's coming on Aug. 6, as well as the seven additional expiration dates that will follow, after which most early investors will be free to sell all of their shares. That could mean that the expectations of that future selling pressure are already priced into the stock. If that's the case, investors could see the stock price climb even as early shareholders reduce their stakes. That would be a strong sign that there's still considerable demand for the stock, especially at a price well below where SpaceX IPOed.
Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are down 4% in Monday afternoon trading, changing hands at $111 after hitting an intraday low of $108.66.
Sure, buying shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) -- you know it better as SpaceX -- before the Aug. 4 release of its second-quarter earnings could prove to be a brilliant trade. Analysts are only looking for a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $6.87 billion, after all. Anything even remotely better than that outlook could prompt a reversal of the 33% pullback from its post-IPO peak.
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The odds are still stacked against that outcome, however, for a few reasons.
One of them is just that the echoes of this company's pre-IPO euphoria are still ringing while the crowd comes to grips with the fact that this unprofitable $1.5 trillion company is only expected to do on the order of $40 billion worth of business this year, en route to a top line of $73 billion next year. That should push it out of the red and into the black, but just barely.
Then there are the 911.5 million SPCX shares that are currently locked up (versus 7.6 billion outstanding) but will be unlocked and available to sell beginning Aug. 6, with many more that could be freed up for sale over the course of the coming year. Many of them can't be sold yet simply because the stock hasn't met minimum performance requirements. The better it performs, though, the greater the selling pressure from this unlocking becomes.
Image source: Getty Images.
Or, this might hit home: Brokerage firm Edward Jones says that during the bull market spanning 2011 to 2020, the average technology stock that went public during that time frame was down 14% from its IPO price six months after its public offering. Things don't necessarily get better down the road, either. Number crunching from Nasdaq Economic Research indicates that about two-thirds of these tickers were still in the red three years later.
So if you want to play the odds, stay on the sidelines a while longer. Counting on exceptions to long-term trends usually isn't worth the risk, even with companies like SpaceX generating as much excitement as it does.
James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Elon Musk-backed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has dropped to a new all-time low (ATL) of below $110.
On July 27, SpaceX stock fell to a fresh ATL of about $108.78, before a slight rebound to trade at $109.79 at the time of reporting.
SPCX stock chart. Source: Finbold SpaceX stock price has been on a gradual decline since it hit its all-time high (ATH) of slightly above $225. Over the past 30 days, SPCX shares have declined by more than 33%, signaling an ongoing unwind of the post-IPO (initial public offering) hype, as Finbold previously reported.
Bearish sentiment for SPCX stock could be mounting ahead of the expected August share unlocks, as Finbold explained. Moreover, early investors of the company may increase selling pressure as more than 911 million shares become available for trading on Thursday next week.
Ahead of the August 4 SpaceX earnings call, the company has faced criticism over concerns about its high valuation. Furthermore, SpaceX had a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion at the time of reporting, while it reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025.
SpaceX stock price outlook With about 206 million out of 555 million SPCX shares sold short, SpaceX stock price has faced significant selling pressure in the past. However, Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the company due to its growth potential.
Last week, Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), reiterated a Buy rating for SpaceX stock. He further maintained a 12-month price target of $300, suggesting a potential 172.8% upsurge.
As a result, 31 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month price target for SPCX of $235.18, signaling a possible 113.86% uptick. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has led SpaceX buyers with nearly $115 million already invested in July.
With SpaceX’s continued investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Wall Street’s analysts believe the ongoing correction could be short-lived.
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ToplineA further decline in SpaceX shares on Monday cut Elon Musk’s net worth by more than $20 billion, lowering his fortune below the $700 billion threshold for the first time since December, as Musk falls further from his trillionaire status.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO recently acknowledged his fortune’s decline, calling himself a “former” trillionaire.
AFP via Getty Images
Key FactsShares of SpaceX dropped 4.8% to around $109.50 as of 10:50 a.m. EDT Monday, extending a 50% plunge for the stock since hitting an all-time high on June 16.
Musk, whose SpaceX holdings include 4.8 billion shares and another 350 million stock options, saw his net worth cut by $29.5 billion to $695.7 billion, yet he still ranks well ahead of Google co-founders Larry Page ($268.5 billion) and Sergey Brin ($247.1 billion) as the world’s richest person.
Musk’s fortune last ended a trading session below $700 billion on Dec. 18, 2025 ($680.6 billion).
SpaceX’s declining stock value comes even after the firm’s successful test launch of its Starship rocket on Friday, as Wall Street appeared to express caution ahead of the test: JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman wrote in a note earlier in the week there would be “plenty of analyze” from the latest Starship launch, though the firm expected “progress and setbacks” across dozens of more launches through 2027.
An aborted Starship launch on July 16 also pushed SpaceX shares lower and reduced Musk’s fortune by more than $45 billion to below $800 billion.
crucial quote“(Former) trillionaire,” Musk wrote on X last week in an apparent nod to his declining fortune in recent weeks.
what to watch forWhether SpaceX shares fall below $100. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote Friday that threshold would imply investors would see no value in the rocket maker’s AI business. Still, some already see “zero or negative value” as the firm accelerates its spending on space and connectivity and “largely uncertain economics,” the analysts wrote.
big numberAbout $750 billion. That’s how much Musk’s net worth has declined since hitting a peak of $1.45 trillion on June 16. Around $116 billion of the decline is because Forbes removed Tesla options based on new vesting conditions agreed to by Musk and his automaker.
key backgroundMusk saw his net worth reach multiple milestones throughout 2025, culminating in his trillionaire status following SpaceX’s initial public offering last month. He first crossed the $700 billion threshold in December, just days after reaching $600 billion, and hit $800 billion in February. A now-monthlong rout in SpaceX shares comes despite optimism from analysts, including former Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who argued Musk’s rocket maker is “well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler” across connectivity, rocket launches and AI infrastructure. Other analysts have pointed to the possible value of Starship’s potential: UBS analyst Gavin Parsons wrote the latest launch was important because it was “intended to validate” capabilities required of the rocket’s launch ramp, including booster engine relight ability.
further readingForbesElon Musk’s Net Worth Drops Below $800 Billion After Starship Launch AbortedBy Ty Roush
SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares fell to an all-time low on Monday, dropping to $108.66 in early trading before recovering some ground to trade around $111 by late morning, as investors weighed concerns over an upcoming share lock-up expiration, valuation, capital spending and financing plans.
The stock has now lost nearly half its value from its post-initial public offering peak despite the company recently completing the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket.
Investor sentiment has been pressured by the company's upcoming first quarterly earnings release on August 4, which will be followed two days later by the expiration of its IPO lock-up period. The event is expected to allow early investors and employees to sell up to 911.5 million shares, representing about 20% of eligible locked stock, raising concerns about increased share supply.
The sell-off has also reflected questions over SpaceX's valuation. Even after Monday's decline, the company carried a market capitalization of roughly $1.46 trillion, a level some investors view as difficult to justify relative to its reported 2025 revenue of less than $19 billion.
Investors have also focused on the company's elevated capital expenditures tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, including multibillion-dollar investments in computing resources, amid uncertainty over when those investments may generate meaningful returns.
Additional pressure followed reports that SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion through its first investment-grade bond offering, a move that underscores the company's significant funding needs as it continues to invest for growth before reaching positive cash flow.
SpaceX SPCX is set to report its first quarterly earnings as a publicly listed company on August 4, but investors are increasingly focused on another event that could have an even bigger impact on its share price.
Two business days after the earnings release, the company's first lock-up period will expire, allowing pre-IPO investors to sell nearly one billion shares—significantly more than the number sold during SpaceX's record-breaking public offering in June.
The stock has endured a volatile start since its $86 billion listing.
After climbing almost 50% during its first three trading sessions, shares have steadily retreated, falling as low as $110.85 last week, or about 18% below the IPO price, before closing Friday at $115.07.
Lock-up periods prevent company insiders and early investors from selling their holdings immediately after a stock market listing.
Once the restrictions expire, a substantial increase in available shares can weigh on prices if investors decide to cash out.
Nearly 629 million shares were sold during SpaceX's June 12 IPO, but almost one billion additional shares will become eligible for sale after the first lock-up expires in early August.
Over the next year, more than 6.4 billion shares could ultimately enter the market.
While there is no certainty that all eligible investors will sell, market participants expect at least some increase in supply that could place further pressure on the stock.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that some investors expect the shares to fall further, potentially reaching $100 after the lock-up expires.
At that level, he argues, the market would effectively be assigning little or no value to SpaceX's AI business.
"Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor," Jonas wrote.
"Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business."
Jonas has a $300 price target on SpaceX, with more than half of that valuation attributed to the company's AI operations.
Jonas believes the recent weakness has created an attractive entry point.
"We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares," he added.
SpaceX's AI division operates two Colossus data centres, which together constitute the world's largest AI training cluster.
Leveraging its reusable rocket technology, satellite network and artificial intelligence capabilities, the company plans to eventually offer AI cloud computing services from space-based data centres.
It argues that abundant solar energy in orbit and naturally colder temperatures could help overcome the power consumption and cooling constraints faced by conventional terrestrial facilities.
In its SEC filing ahead of the IPO, SpaceX said it believes it is uniquely positioned to commercialise orbital AI computing at scale.
"We believe we are the only company with a commercially viable path to building orbital AI compute at scale," the company said in its Form S-1. SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with AI products and services accounting for $26.5 trillion of that opportunity.
Wall Street remains bullish on SPCXSpaceX's decline comes amid broader investor caution toward companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence.
Technology firms have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure in recent quarters, prompting concerns about rising capital expenditure and delayed returns on investment.
Those worries have been amplified by a fragile macroeconomic backdrop and heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which have lifted oil prices and dampened appetite for risk assets.
Despite those concerns, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly positive on SpaceX's longer-term prospects.
According to Bloomberg data, nearly 80% of analysts covering the company recommend buying the shares.
The average price target stands at around $232, implying the stock could more than double from current levels.
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase—all of which worked alongside Morgan Stanley on SpaceX's IPO—have maintained buy-equivalent ratings on the company.
Among the 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, Jonas remains one of the most optimistic, with his $300 target ranking as the third highest on Wall Street.
The high stakes trading week kicks off with massive tech earnings reports and an upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. Meanwhile new details emerge regarding a failed merger between United and Delta while SpaceX stock continues to tumble past its recent IPO price.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) extended its stock market decline throughout the previous week and closed on Friday at $115.07 following a 2.68% daily drop.
SpaceX stock price one-week chart. Source: Google Despite the recent trend, however, ChatGPT’s advanced artificial intelligence (AI) estimated that a new SPCX all-time high (ATH) – the current one was recorded at $225.64 on June 16 – remains in the cards within the relative short term.
Specifically, the popular platform explained that SpaceX is in a somewhat unique position on account of operating several different high-tech businesses under the roof of a single company.
Should the firm’s growth strategy be executed as planned, ChatGPT concluded, SPCX equity is likely to reverse its decline and re-enter a rally in early 2027.
ChatGPT outlines the key SpaceX stock tailwinds and headwinds. Source: Finbold & ChatGPT The AI named continued Starlink user base expansion, an improved rocket launch cadence, optimization for profitability, and proof that Starship has become a meaningful commercial business as the key tailwind generators.
On the flip side, ChatGPT also warned that SpaceX’s initial valuation of $1.77 trillion relative to its most recent known financials remains a powerful source of headwinds.
Nonetheless, the advanced platform added that, after factoring in publicly available data on the company, SPCX shares are likely to record a new ATH on April 27, 2027, as they reach a temporary peak of $248 – 115.52% above the latest close and 9.91% above $225.64.
ChatGPT predicts the next SpaceX stock ATH. Source: Finbold & ChatGPT Why ChatGPT expects new SpaceX stock ATH on April 27, 2027 Reflecting on its prediction, ChatGPT explained that the early second quarter (Q2) of 2027 appears a reasonable timeframe, as it would give investors sufficient time to absorb and process the initial public offering (IPO) dynamics, including insider lockups and the actual effects of the Nasdaq-100 benchmark index inclusion.
Similarly, the date will come after multiple earnings reports are published, giving additional insights into SpaceX’s operations and providing room for the firm’s fundamentals to catch up with valuation.
Meanwhile, ChatGPT revealed the new ATH target it set was determined as plausible, as it constitutes only a modest move above $225.64, meaning it would not require a full-blown hype cycle akin to what was seen just after the SPCX shares IPO.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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The biggest initial public offerings often create the biggest expectations. Wall Street has a long history of turning marquee IPOs into can’t-miss events, only for reality to catch up once the excitement fades. That pattern has repeated itself across multiple market cycles, particularly with mega-cap debuts where sky-high valuations leave little room for disappointment.
SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) historic IPO followed the same script. Yet unlike most blockbuster offerings, Elon Musk made a deliberate effort to ensure everyday retail investors — not just institutional funds and wealthy clients — had a meaningful opportunity to own shares from day one. Ironically, he also warned those same investors that the stock might not be right for them.
A Different Kind of IPO Most IPOs overwhelmingly favor Wall Street. Large investment banks typically allocate the bulk of available shares to institutional investors, hedge funds, and high-net-worth clients, leaving retail investors buying only after trading begins — often at much higher prices.
SpaceX took a different approach. The company reserved a sizeable portion of its IPO allocation for retail investors, making the largest public offering in history one of the most accessible as well. It reflected Musk’s long-standing view that individual investors deserve the same opportunities traditionally reserved for large institutions.
That accessibility helped fuel enormous demand. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, but enthusiasm quickly drove the stock sharply higher in its first days of trading. Like many headline-grabbing IPOs before it, however, the initial excitement proved difficult to sustain.
Today, SPCX trades around $114 per share, roughly 22% below its IPO price and 49% below the post-IPO high it reached shortly after its debut.
Surprisingly, that isn’t an unusual outcome. History shows that many mega IPOs often struggle after their initial surge as lofty expectations collide with the realities of running a public company.
SpaceX Warned Investors From the Beginning SpaceX has been warning investors all along its long-term ambitions could conflict with quarterly earnings expectations. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said at the time of the IPO that the company is measuring its operating horizon in decades, not months.
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Musk reinforced that message during a recent interview with Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist. He acknowledged that public companies face relentless pressure to produce strong quarterly results instead of investing for the next decade.
“One of the challenges with being a public company is the pressure to have great results every single quarter and not really invest in things that may only pay off in five to 10 years.”
He then pointed directly to SpaceX’s ambitions to expand humanity beyond Earth, saying the company could willingly sacrifice near-term profits to build infrastructure on the Moon or Mars — even knowing investors might react negatively.
“We’ll be spending all this money on a Moon base or a Mars base… people will say, ‘You missed your earnings this quarter because you spent too much on Mars.’ I’m like, ‘Yes.'”
This possibility was also disclosed in the company’s prospectus long before the IPO, yet public markets often remain focused on quarterly margins rather than decade-long returns.
That doesn’t make SpaceX a bad investment. It simply makes it a specialized one. Companies pursuing transformative technologies often require years of heavy spending before shareholders see the full payoff. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) spent decades prioritizing growth over profits. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) endured years of skepticism while expanding manufacturing capacity. SpaceX appears prepared to follow a similar path.
Key Takeaway In short, SpaceX’s IPO wasn’t just historic because of its size. It also challenged the traditional IPO model by giving retail investors access typically reserved for Wall Street’s biggest clients. Yet Musk paired that opportunity with an equally clear warning: don’t expect the company to optimize for next quarter’s earnings.
At its current depressed price, SpaceX stock reflects how difficult that message can be for public markets to embrace. Ultimately, investors considering SpaceX should focus less on where the shares trade today and more on whether they’re willing to own a company whose biggest investments — and potentially its biggest rewards — may still be a decade away.
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SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) post-IPO sell-off has reached a new milestone, with the stock now ranking among the worst-performing major U.S. public offerings of the past decade.
Notably, SpaceX closed the Friday session at $115, down more than 27% from its first-day closing price following the company’s June 12, 2026 market debut.
The decline leaves SpaceX underperforming roughly 90% of all U.S. IPOs valued at $1 billion or more since July 2009. While post-IPO pullbacks are common, the scale and speed of SpaceX’s decline stand out.
Data shows that many large IPOs experience first-year declines of between 17% and 25%. However, few billion-dollar listings have fallen as sharply as SpaceX within weeks of going public.
SpaceX stock analysis. Source: Carbon Finance SpaceX stock reverses IPO gains The latest drop extends a sharp reversal that began shortly after the stock’s initial surge. Following its historic IPO, SpaceX shares climbed to around $225, briefly pushing the company’s market capitalization above $2.5 trillion.
Since then, the equity has fallen about 45% to 50% from its post-listing peak, wiping out more than $1 trillion in market value.
SpaceX went public at $135 per share in the largest IPO ever, raising more than $85 billion and securing an initial valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion.
Investor enthusiasm initially drove the stock higher, supported by a limited public float that amplified buying pressure. However, sentiment shifted as investors reassessed the company’s valuation, financial performance, and capital requirements.
SpaceX stock fundamentals The company generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 but reported a net loss of about $5 billion. Investors have also expressed concerns over the substantial spending required for Starship development, Starlink expansion, and AI infrastructure investments following the acquisition of xAI.
Additional pressure has come from expectations that upcoming lockup expirations will significantly increase the number of shares available for trading, potentially creating further selling pressure.
The stock has also been affected by a broader market rotation away from high-growth technology and AI-related names. A scrubbed Starship test flight in July and concerns surrounding the company’s ESG profile further weighed on investor sentiment.
Despite the sell-off, some Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects, citing Starlink’s growth potential and the company’s dominant position in commercial space launches.
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Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) completed its historic initial public offering (IPO) on Friday, June 12. The rocket and satellite company raised a record $75 billion at an unprecedented market value of $1.7 trillion.
SpaceX stock is down 42% from its post-IPO high, partly because some insiders will be allowed to sell shares two days after the company reports second-quarter financial results on August 4. But a rich valuation, debt issuance, and launch delays have also factored into the decline.
Nevertheless, Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish. Among 37 analysts, SpaceX has a median target of $225 per share, implying 96% upside from its current share price of $115. My prediction is a little more conservative: I think SpaceX will trade at $167 per share by June 2027.
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is chasing a $26.5 trillion opportunity in AI products and services SpaceX is a vertically integrated business that designs hardware and software across three operating segments: space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence. The company has a key competitive advantage in reusable rockets, which dramatically reduce launch costs. That economic moat has helped SpaceX build Starlink, the largest satellite internet service in the world.
SpaceX also runs two Colossus data centers, which collectively form the largest AI training cluster on the planet. Using its low-cost launch capabilities, massive satellite network, and AI expertise, the company plans to provide AI cloud services from orbital (space-based) data centers. Solar power and cold temperatures could solve the energy and cooling problems that limit terrestrial data centers.
"We believe we are the only company with a commercially viable path to building orbital AI compute at scale," SpaceX explains its SEC Form S-1. The company values its addressable market at $28.5 billion, and the vast majority of that sum ($26.5 trillion) is attributed to AI products and services.
Wall Street says SpaceX's revenue will grow at 102% annually through 2028 In the first quarter, SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.2 billion, but the company has plenty of cash on its balance sheet after raising $75 billion from its initial public offering (IPO) and AI revenue is likely to grow quickly in the quarters ahead. Anthropic and Alphabet have agreed to rent cloud capacity from SpaceX for monthly fees of $1.25 billion and $920 million, respectively.
SpaceX brought in revenue of $19.3 billion in the past year, and the company currently has a market value of $1.5 trillion as of July 25. Those figures give SpaceX a price-to-sales ratio of 78. That would be a very rich valuation in almost any circumstance, but it's tolerable here because Wall Street estimates sales will increase at 102% annually through 2028. In other words, SpaceX currently trades at about 11 times projected sales for 2028.
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History says SpaceX's stock price will increase 45% by June 2027 SpaceX had a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion at its IPO price of $135 per share. That made it the largest IPO in history by a wide margin. There is no perfect comparison, but we can look at how other large IPOs have performed to make an educated guess about where SpaceX is headed.
The following chart shows the 10 largest U.S. IPOs (as measured by market value at the IPO price) between 2016 and 2025. It also details how those stocks performed during their first year on the market.
IPO Stock
1-Year Return (Post-IPO)
Uber Technologies
(27%)
Airbnb
284%
Rivian Automotive
(58%)
Coinbase Global
(41%)
Venture Global
(60%)
Roblox
(8%)
DoorDash
62%
Rocket Companies
(3%)
Snowflake
170%
Robinhood Markets
(76%)
Average
24%
Data source: BlackRock. Note: Coinbase went public through a direct listing.
Among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs in history, the average stock returned 24% during its first year on the public market. If SpaceX follows that trajectory, the stock will trade at $167 per share in June 2027. That implies 45% upside from the current share price of $115.
I think $167 per share is a sensible forecast. It implies a market value of $2.1 trillion, which means the stock would trade at 30 times projected sales for 2027. That is not cheap, but it is much cheaper than the current valuation.
More importantly, even if I am wrong about SpaceX reaching $167 per share by June 2027, I think patient investors who buy the stock today will outperform the S&P 500 over the next five years. I would start with a small position and add shares if the stock continues to move lower.
Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, BlackRock, DoorDash, Roblox, Rocket Companies, Snowflake, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Obrovské investice do umělé inteligence jsou prováděny jen na základě současných spotových cen. Pokud by pak například došlo k růstu výnosů vládních dluhopisů, tyto projekty by se z hlediska návratnosti staly velmi problematickými. Tímto způsobem uvažuje o dění kolem umělé inteligence známý investor Jim Chanos (viz první dvě části rozhovoru), k tomu přidal i svůj pohled na SpaceX
Chanos poukázal na to, že společnosti provozující starší datová centra se jich snaží zbavit. Podle něj to může být známka celkového posunu na trhu, kdy rostou náklady provozu těchto center, jednak provozní, ale i udržovací investice. To ukazuje na klesající návratnost. Pak se diskuse přesunula k údajnému nedostatku elektrické energie s tím, že některé společnosti „nemají nedostatek čipů, ale právě energie.“ Chanos k tomu řekl, že „pokud v této zemi není něčeho málo, je to energie.“ Mohou být problémy s přenosovou soustavou, „ale levné energie není nedostatek.“
Podle experta tvoří náklady na energie jen asi 5 – 6 % celkových nákladů provozu datových center a zhruba do dvou let podle něj nepůjde o významné téma. Energie tak nebudou překážkou, na kterou bude budování a provoz datových center narážet. Ty se ale objevují na politické rovině, protože sílí odpor k nim. „To by mohl být problém, energie jím podle mého názoru nebudou.“ Trhy se pak podle experta posouvají ve vnímání toho, když nějaká energetická společnost ohlásí novou dohodu na dodávky energie pro datová centra. Zatímco dříve byly tyto povětšinou velmi dlouhodobé kontrakty vítány, nyní podle Chanose při jejich oznámení cena akcie dané energetiky spíše klesá. A „to je důležitá změna“.
Navíc podle Chanose dochází ke znatelnému poklesu návratnosti každého dalšího dolaru investovaného hyperscalery. „Návratnost je stále zdravá, ale na celkové úrovni klesla zhruba ze 40 % z doby před jedním a půl rokem na současných asi 20 %. Pokud budou investice pokračovat současným tempem, návratnost klesne k 10 % a pak budou hyperscaleři vážně zvažovat, zda budou dál investovat.“ Nejhůře je na tom nyní s návratností Oracle a „ostatní se na něj dívají s tím, že na tak nízké úrovni být nechtějí.“
Přes výše uvedené jdou odhady dalších investic do AI infrastruktury nahoru a „na konci letošního roku a v roce příštím se lidé začnou ptát, zda ten další bilion dolarů dává smysl, pokud se z něj vydělá jen 15 miliard dolarů… Do tohoto bodu se dostaneme někdy během následujících 12 měsíců.“ Pak se mluvilo o tom, že roste počet právních sporů mezi některými velkými technologickými společnostmi, v době, kdy je řada z nich zároveň investičně a finančně provázána. Dalším tématem bylo to, že dříve stávaly v centru problémů a tenzí banky, nyní tomu tak není. Nicméně umělá inteligence a investice do ní jsou stále více „financializovány“ a jejich vliv se projevuje v širším systému. Podle některých názorů jsou nyní dokonce i banky „AI akciemi“.
Na závěr dostal Chanos otázku, zda přes vše uvedené nemohou mít nakonec býci ve vztahu k investicím do AI pravdu? Odpověděl, že na základě AI bude vytvořena velká hodnota a budou tu velcí vítězové. Nyní je ale na trhu naceněno „vše tak, že všechno bude fungovat. Což byl problém v devadesátých letech… Pak ale přišla studená sprcha. Teď jsou tu společnosti jako Tesla a SpaceX, jejich valuace stojí na slibech. A proč by nemohl přijít někdo jiný a říkat, že to samé platí o jeho firmě? Je to jen otázka psychologie trhu, nyní jsme ve fázi, kdy se investuje na základě slibů.“
SpaceX (SPCX -2.85%) got a new review from a major bank on Friday, and it wasn't the vote of confidence shareholders were hoping for. HSBC initiated coverage of the rocket and satellite company with a Hold rating and a $115 price target. That number sits below the $135 price at which SpaceX went public in June.
The market wasted no time making its own statement. Shares fell as much as 6% on Friday, dipping below the new target shortly after its publication, before closing at $115.07 -- seven cents above it.
That makes SpaceX the rare stock that trades simultaneously below its IPO price, right at a major bank's days-old price target, and roughly 50% below the high of $225.64 it reached shortly after its debut.
What's most interesting about HSBC's math, though, is how generous it tried to be.
Image source: Getty Images.
A premium for Musk, and still a Hold HSBC built its valuation as a sum of the parts, adding up what it believes SpaceX's businesses are worth. Then it did something unusual. It applied a 2x premium to account for CEO Elon Musk's track record of commercializing disruptive technologies. In other words, the bank built a 2x innovation premium into its sum-of-the-parts math, on the theory that Musk has repeatedly built industries where none existed.
Even with that premium, the answer came back at $115, along with a conclusion that the price already reflects much of the company's long-term growth potential -- including continued expansion of Starlink, rising launch activity, and the development of its artificial intelligence initiatives. The bank did sketch a friendlier picture. Its most optimistic scenario, which assumes the Starship rocket becomes commercially viable starting in 2027 and launch capacity doubles, values the stock at $293 per share. But that's the ceiling case, not the expectation.
That's the detail I'd sit with. When a valuation grants the founder credit most models never grant, and still can't reach the IPO price, the exercise says as much about the price as it does about the company.
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The disagreement is enormous To be fair, HSBC is one voice, and a notably cautious one next to the rest of Wall Street. The average price target on SpaceX sits at about $237, more than twice the recent share price. Even more telling, individual targets range from $62 all the way to $800. A range that wide is less a forecast than an admission that nobody has figured out how to value this company yet. And HSBC's Hold rating, for what it's worth, implies the stock roughly treads water from here. The bank's caution is about the price, not the business.
The fundamentals explain the confusion. SpaceX's trailing-12-month revenue totals about $19 billion, and its 2025 revenue grew 33% -- remarkable growth for an industrial company. But the stock's market capitalization stands at about $1.5 trillion, which values the company at more than 75 times its sales. The business remains unprofitable, too, as it pours money into developing its Starship rocket. There are no earnings to check the valuation against yet, and there won't be for some time.
Hard evidence is finally coming, though. SpaceX is expected to report its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4, giving investors their first standardized look at the company's finances since the IPO. The first wave of insider share lockups begins expiring shortly after the report. For a debate currently running on beliefs, that report is the first common set of facts both sides will have to reckon with -- and every model on Wall Street, HSBC's included, gets rebuilt on real quarterly disclosure from that day forward.
So, is the newly cheaper stock worth buying now that it has fallen to even a skeptic's target? I don't think the target itself should drive anyone's decision. HSBC's $115 is one bank's estimate, and the consensus near $237 is an average of guesses that disagree with one another by hundreds of dollars.
My takeaway is simply that SpaceX's current valuation continues to require a lot of imagination to justify. A major bank went looking for reasons to be generous with SpaceX, applied the biggest one it could justify, and still concluded the stock was worth less than its IPO price.
I'm not buying before the company's Aug. 4 numbers are released. Sure, a business compounding revenue at 33% deserves respect. But at a $1.5 trillion valuation, I want to see more momentum in its financials before paying up for this stock.
Investment management firm Vanguard recently updated the holdings of many of its index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The second-largest ETF by net assets, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI +0.03%), holds 18,738,438 shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.68%) -- worth $3.2 billion as of June 30. That's 3.4% of the 555 million shares that SpaceX sold for $135 from its initial public offering (IPO). Granted, SpaceX also raised another $10.7 billion from underwriters that exercised options to buy shares. But the key takeaway is the speed and size at which the ETF gobbled up SpaceX stock.
Here's what investors need to know about SpaceX's impact on well-known low-cost ETFs, and ways they can position their portfolio to get exposure to SpaceX or avoid it entirely.
Image source: Getty Images.
ETFs are buying SpaceX stock at a rapid rate The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF was aggressively buying a good chunk of SpaceX's float in June at a price far higher than the price at the time of this writing of $118.24 per share. In contrast, Vanguard's largest ETF by net assets, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, won't begin buying SpaceX until it is added to the S&P 500, which will be June 2027 at the earliest.
The value of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF's SpaceX position is roughly equal to the combined value of the eight other Vanguard ETFs that bought SpaceX in June.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is so large that even a $3.2 billion position represents just 0.14% of the fund. And there are 109 stocks with higher weights in the ETF than SpaceX.
Other Vanguard ETFs have a higher percentage weighting in SpaceX than the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. SpaceX already makes up 2.4% of the Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX +0.56%) -- a sector ETF that invests in communication services stocks like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Netflix.
Because the sector ETF is more focused, it will hold a larger position in SpaceX than a broad-based fund like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which aims to own the entire U.S. stock market. Similarly, growth-focused ETFs like the Vanguard Growth ETF and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF will own more SpaceX than the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF.
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Aligning ETF holdings with your interest in IPOs The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF bought a sizable stake in SpaceX less than three weeks after its IPO -- showcasing the impact of ETFs on demand for newly public companies. And it stands to reason that these ETFs will buy even more SpaceX as more shares become available for trading on the Nasdaq.
That timeline depends on the SpaceX lockup period and whether holders of SpaceX restricted stock units and early release eligible shares decide to sell. The first stress test will come on Aug. 6 -- two days after SpaceX reports second-quarter 2026 earnings. On that date, 20% of early-release eligible shares will be transferable.
Investors who don't want to be in rules-based ETFs that will be buying shares of SpaceX as more hit the Nasdaq should consider ETFs whose criteria don't align with SpaceX in the first place, such as the Vanguard Value ETF, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, or any non-communications sector ETF. Investors who like the idea of being in an ETF that will be backing up the truck on SpaceX, on the other hand, may want to take a closer look at the Vanguard Communication Services ETF.
Daniel Foelber has positions in Netflix. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Netflix, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, Vanguard Growth ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Value ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Investors looking for the best time to buy SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock may benefit from waiting for additional weakness following the company’s first earnings report as a public company, according to an analysis by ChatGPT.
While SpaceX remains one of the market’s most closely watched growth stocks, the AI model suggested the most attractive entry point could emerge between August and October 2026 rather than immediately.
The assessment comes as SpaceX shares remain under pressure following their June 2026 IPO, despite continued progress across Starship, Starlink, and launch operations. As of press time, SPCX shares were valued at $115, dropping over 30% since its debut.
SPCX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold ChatGPT identified SpaceX’s first public earnings report, scheduled for August 4, as the most likely catalyst for a better entry point.
Expectations remain high after the company’s blockbuster debut, leaving little room for disappointment.
If SpaceX reports larger-than-expected losses, lowers guidance, increases spending on Starship and satellite infrastructure, or delays commercialization targets, the stock could face another round of selling.
Under that scenario, investors may find a more attractive risk-reward setup than buying ahead of earnings.
When to buy SpaceX stock Based on current market conditions, ChatGPT considers SpaceX stock most attractive between $110 and $125 per share, with the $90 to $110 range offering an even stronger accumulation opportunity if fundamentals remain intact.
Conversely, the model believes shares above $140 still reflect significant optimism around Starship, Starlink, and future growth. These are valuation-based entry zones, not price forecasts.
However, ChatGPT noted that investors may consider buying sooner if three developments occur: another successful Starship test flight, continued growth in Starlink subscribers and revenue, and signs that the stock can stabilize after earnings rather than extend its recent decline.
The model also highlighted post-IPO share dynamics as a potential source of volatility. SpaceX’s relatively small public float has contributed to sharp price swings since listing.
SpaceX fundamentals As more shares become available for trading, additional selling from employees and early investors could weigh on the stock.
Historically, similar post-IPO periods have created buying opportunities when business fundamentals remained strong.
Meanwhile, valuation remains the key debate among investors. SpaceX’s estimated valuation climbed from about $350 billion in late 2024 to more than $800 billion by the end of 2025 before reaching roughly $1.75 trillion at its IPO.
That rapid rise has shifted the investment question from whether SpaceX can grow to whether it can grow fast enough to justify its premium valuation.
Despite its near-term caution, ChatGPT remains bullish on SpaceX’s long-term prospects. The model views the company as a combination of a dominant launch provider, a fast-growing satellite communications network through Starlink, and a potential AI and space infrastructure platform.
If Starship achieves full reusability and Starlink continues expanding globally, SpaceX could remain one of the fastest-growing large-cap companies in the market.
A little over a month ago, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) completed the largest IPO in history. Initially, SpaceX stock surged, briefly touching an intraday high above $225 per share and eclipsing Amazon's market capitalization.
However, over the last few weeks, SpaceX stock has witnessed significant pressure. As of the closing bell Thursday, shares were down by 48% from their post-IPO high, and off 21% from their opening price on the first day of trading. With SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company scheduled for Aug. 4, is now an opportunity to buy the dip?
Image source: Getty Images.
What does Wall Street expect for SpaceX earnings? The consensus estimate among analysts is that SpaceX will report revenue of roughly $6.9 billion and a loss of $0.28 per share for the second quarter. While this would represent a 47% increase from the company's first-quarter revenue, the bottom line is expected to remain deeply negative -- underscoring the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX's various businesses.
Keep an eye out for these issues on the earnings call Analysts will likely press management for information on a number of operational issues. For starters, they will want details about Starship Flight 13, which SpaceX was forced to scrub at launch earlier this month.
Wall Street will almost certainly ask questions about SpaceX's AI roadmap as well. Specifically, management should touch on progress around its $82 billion worth of capacity contracts with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI, and also address the integration of the company's recent $60 billion Cursor acquisition.
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Smart investors understand that timing stock purchases around a single event is a fool's errand. Employing a long-term horizon and a steady investing cadence remains the most reliable approach to creating wealth.
Currently, it is simply too difficult to know whether SpaceX stock is a falling knife or simply undergoing a temporary correction. Prudent investors would be best off sitting on the sidelines until the company reports earnings. Then, they can digest the numbers and management's commentary before making a decision about whether to buy shares.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The supply of SpaceX (SPCX -2.68%) stock is set to soar after the company's quarterly financial update.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 22, 2026. The video was published on July 24, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) went from being the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history to one of the worst-performing IPOs in a long time. That's the market at work.
SpaceX was valued at about $1.8 trillion upon going public, but its underlying fundamentals didn't justify that valuation. Hype and hope aren't typically good investment strategies over the long term. Now that the stock has tumbled, it's time to think about when the right investment point might be.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Let the market work SpaceX stock has given back more than $1 trillion from its peak valuation reached less than a week after it went public. With shares recently trading at about $118, patient investors can now own the stock well below its $135 IPO price and $161 first day closing price. The question now is by how much SpaceX shares might drift lower. It's especially timely to ask that, given its first quarterly earnings report since going public is due on Aug. 4.
First, investors need to realize that SpaceX isn't going to operate like a traditional business going public. It was listed at a valuation that made no sense fundamentally. While the company had about $18 billion in 2025 revenue, those who bought shares at the IPO were looking far into the future for much higher revenue and profit potential.
That helps explain why SpaceX has performed so poorly in its short public life. According to a Barron's analysis, the stock has underperformed compared to 90% of other U.S. IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July 2009.
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Wait a few days after earnings It's hard to judge what a good valuation would be to buy into SpaceX. It has huge potential with its SpaceXAI data center business, not to mention Starship rocket launches and the possibility of orbital data centers.
So one isn't going to make it a value investment where a traditional price-to-sales (P/S) or price-to-earnings (P/E) metric applies. Whether it declines enough to reach a $1 trillion valuation -- or about $76.5 per share -- is impossible to know. But investors do have a sense of the timing that might be appropriate.
SpaceX's initial earnings report will be Aug. 4. That, of course, is an important date to remember. But that report also triggers the start of the company's unique staged lock-up expiration. The actual trading unlock happens two days later on Aug. 6.
At that point, an initial tranche of over 900 million shares will be available for early investors and employees to sell. It seems likely that some will gladly monetize their stake. That would be when I would begin buying a position in SpaceX.
And there's no reason to jump in all at once, either. Investors should review the company's earnings release and then determine a strategy for building a position after Aug. 6.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
When Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) -- commonly known as SpaceX -- priced its IPO at $135 per share, many said it was too expensive. And when it climbed to more than $200/share within a week, they said it was way too expensive.
But now SpaceX's stock has fallen more than 40% from its high and is trading at about $116 per share as I write this, 13.2% below its IPO price. Is this a sign of more losses to come or a buying opportunity? Here's what investors need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
What goes up... SpaceX's business is built on getting things into space. In 2025, the world sent 3,194 metric tons of stuff into orbit, and SpaceX's flagship rocket launch business carried more than 80% of it.
Currently, the company is preparing its massive Starship megarocket for commercial use. Starship's huge 220,000-pound payload capacity would dramatically lower the cost of putting things into orbit and would almost certainly increase SpaceX's already dominant market share.
Meanwhile, the only profitable part of SpaceX's business, Starlink, has successfully built a vast network of nearly 10,000 communications satellites that provide broadband and mobile services to 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, mostly in hard-to-reach areas. This is expected to be the primary driver of profits for the foreseeable future.
The company estimates that these two businesses together only have a total addressable market of about $2 trillion: less than the company's market cap at its peak. Growth is clearly a major part of the valuation here. So, how's that going?
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...must come down In short, not well. SpaceX estimates an eventual $26.5 trillion market for its AI applications, but right now it primarily just sells compute to other companies. Google's parent company, Alphabet, for example, is renting compute capacity from SpaceX for $920 million per month.
That's a good start, but SpaceX's primary argument is that it can launch data centers into space, where it expects to lower compute costs thanks to the higher concentration of solar energy. But that plan can't get off the ground (literally) until Starship comes online. And SpaceX has now failed to launch its (apparently unlucky) 13th Starship test flight twice but intends to try again on Thursday.
Another delay or an unsuccessful launch would almost certainly send the stock lower. And even if this test flight is successful, many more tests and certifications remain before Starship reaches commercial viability.
Additionally, over the next year, various lockups of insider shares will expire, and up to 1 billion additional shares could be awarded through options, settlements, and the like. If and when those shares hit the market, they'll exert downward pressure on the stock. Downward pressure, without any obvious near-term growth catalysts, is a recipe for further share price declines.
Smart investors should probably wait to buy SpaceX shares, as they're likely to continue moving lower in the near term.
Few events capture Wall Street’s imagination like a marquee IPO. The combination of a famous founder, limited public float, and fear of missing out can push newly public companies well beyond what fundamentals alone justify. History is filled with examples, from the dot-com boom to more recent offerings, where excitement lifted valuations before reality eventually took over.
That’s exactly why experienced investors often approach blockbuster IPOs with caution. SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) public debut may have compressed that entire cycle into just one month, offering an important lesson before highly anticipated offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI arrive.
SpaceX’s IPO Hype Meets Reality The buildup to SpaceX’s public debut was unlike almost anything investors have seen in years.
After pricing its IPO at $135 per share, SpaceX opened its first day of trading at $150 before enthusiasm pushed the stock as high as $225 in the days that followed. For a brief period, it seemed every investor wanted a piece of Elon Musk’s latest empire.
That enthusiasm has faded just as quickly. SpaceX now trades around $113 per share — roughly 50% below its post-IPO high and 16% below its original offering price. The reversal has been swift, but it isn’t unprecedented.
History shows that many high-profile IPOs struggle once the initial excitement wears off. Sometimes that adjustment happens over six months or a year. In SpaceX’s case, the process unfolded in a matter of weeks.
Let’s also remember that the next phase may not be over. Lockup agreements that prevent insiders from selling their shares begin expiring next month. Those expirations often increase selling pressure as early investors and employees finally gain the ability to cash out. Some newly public companies don’t establish lasting bottoms until months — or even several years — after their debuts as they prove they can consistently grow into lofty valuations.
Musk’s Wealth Rose Just as Fast as It Fell The dramatic swings in SpaceX also produced one of the largest paper wealth gains — and losses — in history.
According to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, Elon Musk’s estimated net worth began the year near $630 billion before the SpaceX IPO frenzy briefly pushed his fortune above $1.3 trillion. As SpaceX retreated, that paper wealth evaporated just as quickly. By Friday, Bloomberg estimated Musk’s fortune at approximately $718.8 billion, representing a decline of roughly $600 billion in about a month.
Musk himself seemed to acknowledge the reversal with characteristic humor, posting simply on X: “(Former) Trillionaire.”
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Of course, Musk never had $1 trillion sitting in a bank account. Like virtually every billionaire, the overwhelming majority of his wealth consists of ownership stakes whose values fluctuate every trading day.
The Bigger Lesson Isn’t About Musk No one is likely to launch a GoFundMe campaign for Elon Musk. Yet the episode illustrates how quickly headline-grabbing wealth figures can change.
Political rhetoric often treats billionaire wealth as though it were static. In reality, fortunes tied to publicly traded companies can rise or fall by hundreds of billions of dollars without a single share being sold. Wealth is dynamic, not fixed.
More importantly, economies generally grow by encouraging innovation rather than limiting it. Musk’s companies illustrate that point. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) helped accelerate mainstream electric vehicle adoption after decades of failed attempts by others. SpaceX has transformed commercial spaceflight and lowered launch costs. Even X has become a platform where users can share viewpoints that are suppressed or might receive less visibility elsewhere.
Granted, reasonable people can disagree about Musk’s leadership style or his public statements. But creating businesses that generate jobs, technological advances, and shareholder value is ultimately how wealth is created in the first place.
Key Takeaway In short, the biggest lesson from SpaceX’s volatile debut isn’t that Elon Musk lost his trillionaire status. It’s that IPO euphoria rarely lasts forever.
Smart investors have long been warned against chasing blockbuster offerings during their first days of trading, and SpaceX demonstrates why. Better entry prices often emerge once excitement fades and markets begin focusing on fundamentals instead of headlines.
With Anthropic and OpenAI both expected to launch blockbuster IPOs in the coming months, investors would do well to remember that patience has historically been one of the market’s most valuable investing tools.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Down 15% from June's initial public offering price and more than 30% below its post-IPO peak, it's safe to say many investors are more than a little disappointed in Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX -2.85%) -- you know it better as SpaceX -- shares so far.
So now what? Is it worth buying or continuing to hold at its current price? Or, should investors take the recent weakness at face value and throw in towel on this ticker?
Maybe something in between.
History says With the dust of this mid-June IPO finally settling, it's time to say out loud what most people have only been quietly thinking to themselves. That is, like almost all other major initial public offerings for the past three decades, this one was buoyed by hype that was never built to last.
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The stock could continue sinking before finding a bottom, too. Brokerage firm Edward Jones reports that between 2011 and 2020 -- a period when then-Facebook Meta, Peloton, Snapchat parent Snap, and Twitter (now X) all went public -- the average newly minted technology stock was down 14% from its IPO price just six months following its public offering. Again, IPO hype has an all-too-familiar pattern. Never mind the end of the lockups keeping current SPCX shareholders from shedding their now-deteriorating positions, which, of course, would only add to the selling pressure.
Longer-term, still a long shot Just don't feel like you necessarily need to forego a stake in SpaceX forever. Post-IPO performance numbers from Nasdaq Economic Research indicate that between 2010 and 2020, newly public companies generating annual revenue in excess of $100 million end up, on average, at least keeping pace with the broad market's gains, if not slightly beating them.
Image source: Getty Images.
Still, take that information with a grain of salt. While the average three-year performance is positive, this average is skewed by a small handful of overperformers. Nearly two-thirds of these stocks were still in the red three years after their IPO.
In other words, don't bet the farm if you decide to go bottom-fishing.
James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
After weeks of waiting, investment management firm Vanguard finally updated the holdings of its 48 passively managed equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Unsurprisingly, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.85%) popped up in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, the Vanguard Growth ETF, and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF, among others.
By far the biggest surprise was that, as of June 30, SpaceX is the No. 1 holding in the Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF -0.28%), ahead of 3,371 other stocks.
This is no small ETF by any means -- the Vanguard Extended Market ETF has $97.7 billion in net assets and traces its inception date back to December 2001.
Here's why SpaceX is now the top holding of the Vanguard Extended Market ETF and how it compares to the other Vanguard ETFs that bought SpaceX in June.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is making waves in the ETF world The Vanguard Extended Market ETF's 6,775,494 shares of SpaceX were valued at $1.158 billion as of June 30. The fund includes a blend of small- and mid-cap stocks, with a few large caps sprinkled in. So you may be wondering why a stock like SpaceX is in the ETF, given it has a $1.63 trillion market cap and is one of the 10 largest U.S. companies by market cap.
SpaceX's initial public offering was the largest in history based on SpaceX's valuation. But SpaceX raised just $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at $135 each and another $10.7 billion from underwriters with options to buy additional shares -- far less than its valuation. So the number of shares available for public trading on the Nasdaq -- known as the float -- is only around 5% of SpaceX's total shares outstanding.
Because SpaceX's float is such a small percentage of its market cap, the rules-based S&P 500 Completion Index that the Vanguard Extended Market ETF is modeled after probably classified SpaceX as something other than a megacap stock. This is why SpaceX was pole-vaulted to the fund's top holding in a matter of weeks.
These same market dynamics are why SpaceX makes up such a small percentage of funds like the Vanguard Growth ETF. If SpaceX were weighted by market cap, it would have a weighting similar to Meta Platforms at about 3.4%. Instead, SpaceX is just 0.29% of the fund, weighted by a multiple of its float rather than market cap.
NYSEMKT: VXFVanguard Index Funds - Vanguard Extended Market ETF
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The IPO wild west is just beginning Float-based market cap weightings are effective because they act as a check-and-balance system on ETF demand. If SpaceX were weighted by market cap, then ETFs would artificially drive up its price, given how few of its outstanding shares are available for trading on the Nasdaq. But the pattern in which passively managed Vanguard ETFs are buying SpaceX showcases the imperfect system of megacap IPOs.
As SpaceX gradually unlocks shares starting Aug. 6, investors can expect it to make up a larger share of well-known ETFs like the Vanguard Growth ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. But that larger float will also likely trigger SpaceX's removal from the Vanguard Extended Market ETF.
How ETFs are responding to SpaceX is a reminder to always understand what you're buying and why you're holding it. In the case of the Vanguard Extended Market ETF, I wouldn't be surprised if it dumped its entire SpaceX holding before the end of the year, but also had a short period where upcoming megacap IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI would become top holdings, only to eventually be removed from the ETF.
HomeIndustriesTelecommunicationsTelecom StocksTelecom StocksIt would likely be too expensive and time-consuming for SpaceX to build a mobile network on its own. But the major wireless carriers have to hope one of their rivals doesn’t sell out.July 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET
Ever since T-Mobile and Sprint merged in 2020, the U.S. wireless-communications market has operated as a comfortable oligopoly. But lately, investors have worried that Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans to disrupt what’s been a predictable market for telecommunications services.
SpaceX’s SPCX Starlink business has so far been a niche provider to rural areas. But the company’s initial-public-offering prospectus in May revealed that Starlink Mobile has ambitions to massively penetrate suburban and urban markets too — with the goal of providing better connectivity than what can be offered by cell towers on the ground.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) could decline to $50 per share between August 2026 and the first half of 2027 if a series of bearish catalysts align, according to ChatGPT.
Notably, the AI model does not consider a drop to $50 the most likely outcome. However, it believes the risk becomes more significant if insider selling accelerates after lockup restrictions are lifted, earnings disappoint, and progress on Starship remains delayed.
The assessment comes after SpaceX stock fell about 50% from its post-IPO high above $225 to trade around $115 as of press time.
SpaceX 30-day stock price chart. Source: Finbold ChatGPT identified August through October 2026 as the period most likely to trigger another major decline.
The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 4, while more than 911 million previously restricted shares are expected to become eligible for sale shortly afterward.
A combination of weaker-than-expected financial results and heavy insider selling could increase downward pressure on the stock as the market adjusts to a significantly larger share float. Additional lockup expirations expected in 2027 could create a second period of elevated volatility.
Odds of SpaceX stock dropping to $50 Despite these risks, ChatGPT believes SpaceX’s business fundamentals reduce the probability of a collapse to $50.
In this line, Starlink has become the company’s primary earnings engine, generating approximately $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue and about $1.19 billion in operating income. Meanwhile, SpaceX continues to dominate commercial launch services and is expanding its presence in government and defense contracts.
The company generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025, representing annual growth of about 33%.
Based on current fundamentals, ChatGPT views a trading range of $90 to $130 as the most likely outcome over the coming months, assigning a 45% probability to that scenario.
The model estimates a 30% chance of the stock falling to between $70 and $90 and a 15% probability of a decline into the $50 to $70 range. The likelihood of SpaceX falling below $50 is estimated at 10%.
SpaceX stock price prediction. Source: ChatGPT SpaceX stock sell-off explained Meanwhile, the recent selloff has been driven largely by concerns over valuation and increasing share supply rather than weakening business performance.
Following its June IPO at $135, SpaceX surged above $225 as investors piled into one of the market’s most anticipated listings. Sentiment later shifted as attention turned to upcoming lockup expirations and the company’s premium valuation.
Starship delays have also weighed on the stock, as the program remains central to SpaceX’s long-term growth strategy.
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.68%) took off like one of its Falcon 9 rockets in the immediate days following its initial public offering on June 12, 2026. That IPO was one for the record books, ranking as the largest ever.
Since then, though, SpaceX's sizzle has fizzled. Actually, its performance looks almost identical to past mega-IPOs. And one thing usually happens next, if history repeats itself.
Image source: Getty Images.
A familiar pattern I looked at the 10 largest past IPOs. SpaceX's trajectory has followed the paths of several of them. For example, the space stock jumped roughly 19% on its first day of trading -- almost exactly the historical average for mega-IPOs.
SpaceX's subsequent performance perhaps tracks most closely with another highly anticipated IPO. Facebook, now Meta Platforms (META -1.80%), listed its shares on the Nasdaq stock exchange on May 18, 2012. The social media stock plunged more than 30% over the next few weeks before rebounding somewhat.
That's what we're seeing unfold with SpaceX. Shares of Elon Musk's space technology company fell more than 30% after rising immediately following the IPO. The stock has bounced back a little since bottoming out, though.
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Two potential paths What usually happens with mega-IPO stocks after their initial declines? Historically, there have been two paths.
Facebook/Meta Platforms represents the more attractive of the two paths. Although the stock performed dismally for most of 2012, it eventually roared back. By the end of 2013, Facebook's shares were up more than 40%.
Patient investors who held onto the stock were richly rewarded. An initial investment of $10,000 in Facebook when it first began trading would be worth more than $169,000 today.
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA -1.68%) is an especially disastrous example of the other path for mega-IPO stocks. When Alibaba listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 19, 2014, it ranked as the largest IPO in U.S. history at the time. Although the Chinese tech stock struggled for a while, it had more than tripled by late 2020.
But then the bottom fell out for Alibaba. Multiple issues derailed the company's growth. The stock is now down more than 60% below its peak. Since its IPO, Alibaba has delivered a positive return of around 27%, less than one-tenth the S&P 500's return during the period.
If SpaceX continues to track with previous mega-IPOs, it's likely to experience significant near-term volatility. The company's staggered post-IPO lock-up release schedule could complicate matters, with the prospects of insider selling over the next few months potentially creating downward pressure on SpaceX's share price.
Eight of the 10 largest U.S. IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.05%) since the companies went public. SpaceX could become the ninth member of this group, but this fate isn't guaranteed.
The company's Starlink satellite internet services unit has a real opportunity to disrupt the wireless services market dominated by telecom giants such as AT&T (T +5.10%), T-Mobile (TMUS +5.78%), and Verizon Communications (VZ +5.84%)
SpaceX's Starmind initiative, though, could be the game changer that makes it more like Meta than Alibaba. Starmind's goal is to launch up to 1 million satellites that process artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. The results from these AI processes would then be beamed back to Earth stations.
While that might sound like something from a science fiction novel, Musk and the SpaceX team believe they can resolve the technological challenges and make it happen. If so, the competitive advantages Starmind would offer -- including low energy costs from solar power -- could make SpaceX the most powerful player in the AI data center market.
The bottom line is that no one knows for sure which path SpaceX will take over the next few years. The company's destiny won't be dictated by past IPOs, even if its current trajectory looks eerily similar to some of them.
SpaceX launched its massive Starship rocket Friday evening from its company town and launch facility in Starbase, Texas, in a 13th test flight and the first since the company's record IPO last month.
The rocket's Super Heavy booster detached from the Starship spacecraft about two minutes into the flight, and made a controlled splashdown in the Gulf.
In a statement following the flight, SpaceX said the landing was not perfect as the booster, "attempted to relight its engines for the landing burn," but only a subset successfully ignited before the "hard splashdown."
The upper stage of the rocket made a "soft splashdown" in the Indian Ocean, SpaceX said, "coming to rest intact in the Indian Ocean and providing critical views of an intact heatshield for the first time."
Employees called the test flight "lucky number 13," in a livestream of the event.
Elon Musk's aerospace and defense contractor designed Starship, the largest rocket ever built or flown, to be fully reusable and to lift more cargo for less cost into orbit. Starship is considered crucial for the company's goal to vastly expand its Starlink satellite network, among other missions.
About 18 minutes into Friday's test flight, SpaceX successfully deployed 20 of its new Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, a first chance for the company to see how they performed in flight. The satellites were intended to burn up after about 20 minutes.
The new satellites, produced at a SpaceX facility in Redmond, Washington, are built to be larger, and more powerful than Starlink's earlier satellites. They're also equipped with solar arrays that generate twice as much power as prior generations, a SpaceX business analyst explained in a livestream.
SpaceX is now developing Starmind satellites, which the company intends to launch and eventually use as orbital data centers.
Besides using their largest rockets to launch the new, larger satellites, SpaceX wants to use the Starship rocket to bring U.S. astronauts back to the moon's surface, and to eventually power manned missions to Mars. The company is preparing Starship for a major NASA test flight next year.
Friday's test flight marked the second for Starship V3, the latest version of the rocket.
TMF Associates' Tim Farrar, a satellite services industry expert, said the test flight showed SpaceX has made some progress with Starship but "remains a long way from achieving rapid reusability of the entire ship." He pointed to problems SpaceX had relighting its Raptor engines on Friday. "Any similar failure during an attempted landing at the company's launch site could cause severe damage to the launchpad," he said.
In a post on X, which is owned by SpaceX, the company said it delayed an earlier test flight planned for Thursday "due to weather." It also previously scrubbed a test flight on July 16, after the rocket's booster triggered a hold, which "shut down the engines right as they were starting to ignite," a SpaceX employee said during a livestream of the earlier event.
SpaceX's stock has dropped in four of the past five weeks, slumping 43% from its peak close on June 16.
Item 1 of 3 The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy v3 booster in Starbase, Texas, U.S., July 22, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius
[1/3]The Pad 2 chopsticks hoist Starship 40 at the SpaceX launch complex to stack the spacecraft atop booster 20 as preparations continue for the second attempt of the 13th test flight of the Starship... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
WASHINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) - SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab Starship rocket lifted off from Texas on Friday and deployed its first 20 upgraded Starlink satellites into suborbital space, one of many testing goals in the company's 13th test mission as it races to begin routine service with the rocket by the end of the year.
The roughly 400-foot-tall (122 m) Starship rocket system blasted off around 6:50 p.m. ET from SpaceX's Starbase company town, with the Super Heavy first stage booster sending its Starship upper stage on a suborbital trajectory. The roughly hour-long mission will conclude with Starship's reentry through Earth's atmosphere and a splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
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As Starship approached 16,400 miles per hour (26,400 kph) in space some 10 minutes into its flight, the Super Heavy booster returned to Earth and impacted the Gulf of Mexico harder than expected, SpaceX said, though it had reignited more engines than its botched return in May during a previous test flight.
The Starship test flight is SpaceX's 13th since 2023, featuring a new version of the rocket crucial to the company's plans to expand Starlink, land humans on the moon for NASA and eventually deploy thousands of artificial intelligence-processing satellites in orbit.
Twenty minutes into its spaceflight, Starship began deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, dispensing them one by one via the ship's "Pez"-like payload deployment. Flying over a shadowed Earth, thunderstorms with flashes of lightning were visible in the background 118 miles (190 km) below, according to a camera fixed to the rocket and streamed live by SpaceX.
A crowd of SpaceX engineers in SpaceX's Hawthorne, California, facilities could be heard on the live stream cheering at the rocket's mission milestones, at one point chanting "USA."
While in space, the Starlink satellites — a new "V3" version with greater bandwidth capabilities — will deploy solar arrays and antennae to briefly connect with SpaceX's Starlink network of some 10,000 satellites orbiting above.
The Starlinks are the first to be deployed by Starship, though they will follow the ship's suborbital trajectory into Earth's atmosphere and burn up.
Some of them have spotlights and cameras that will record Starship's heat shield as it hits intense atmospheric friction later in the mission, giving SpaceX key testing insight into how well the rocket survives its return from space.
SpaceX plans to use Starship by the end of 2026 to begin launching thousands of Starlink V3 satellites, expanding the constellation's capacity to be able to connect directly to mobile devices such as cell phones. The current network only connects to Starlink-branded dishes.
Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Joey Roulette is a space reporter for Reuters covering the business and politics of the global space industry, often focusing on space power competition and how commercial interests intersect with international relations. He was part of a team that won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in national reporting for Reuters' coverage of Elon Musk's business empire. On the space beat for roughly a decade, Joey previously worked for the New York Times, the Verge, and various publications in Florida.
Investors betting on SpaceX SPCX shares are buying into more than just reusable orbital rockets and a global satellite internet network – they are purchasing a ticket to the visionary leadership of Elon Musk.
However, according to a recent analysis from HSBC, that celebrated “Musk factor” may already be fully priced into the equity.
Analysts at the bank initiated coverage on the aerospace pioneer with a Hold rating and a $115 target price, indicating absence of any meaningful upside from current levels.
Note that SpaceX stock has been in a sharp downtrend in recent weeks. At writing, it’s trading even below its IPO price of $135.
Standard financial formulas used for traditional conglomerates, SPACs, or biotech firms simply fail to reflect how the market rates elite founders who reshape global industries.
To capture this reality, HSBC departed from classic metrics and built a custom sum-of-the-parts model featuring a 2x “innovation premium”.
The benchmark for this multiplier was drawn directly from Tesla’s first decade on public markets, leveraging Musk’s established track record in disruptive manufacturing and commercial deployment.
The bank noted that while analysts often apply holding company discounts, special founder premiums are warranted when leaders consistently upend whole sectors.
Yet even with this generous multiplier factored in, HSBC concludes that current market prices leave very little room for short-term upside on SPCX shares.
The core takeaway from HSBC’s base-case framework is that today’s market valuation already anticipates seamless execution across SpaceX’s main business pillars.
Investors have fully embedded expectations for Starlink's expanding global subscriber footprint, high-frequency Falcon launch manifests, and early-stage spatial artificial intelligence initiatives.
However, the report cautions that for SpaceX shares to breach higher territory, the company must overdeliver; HSBC did outline an optimistic “blue sky” scenario valuation of $293 per share.
But achieving it requires aggressive operational milestones: commercial viability for the next-generation Starship rocket by 2027, doubling overall launch throughput relative to base estimates, extracting significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from Starlink, and securing top-tier software multiples for its internal AI infrastructure.
While long-term bulls point to that $293 optimistic view, short-term realities on the trading floor reflect heightened scrutiny.
SPCX stock has faced headwinds following technical delays around its pivotal 13th Starship test flight and market anxiety over massive insider share unlock periods approaching in August.
While institutional backers continue to view Starship as the key to unlocking exponential payload scale, HSBC’s balanced stance highlights that execution risks cannot be ignored.
Until SpaceX consistently proves out Starship's full orbital reusability and commercial monetization, the stock appears bound to its fundamental trajectory, leaving the famous Musk premium firmly baked into the price for now.
At 6:45 p.m. ET tonight, SpaceX (SPCX -2.85%) gets a third try at its most consequential launch as a public company. Starship Flight 13 has a 90-minute window to lift off from the company's Starbase site in Texas, carrying the first 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.
"Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort," CEO Elon Musk wrote on X after the first attempt on July 16. SpaceX swapped out engines, and then weather postponed the second try on Thursday.
The stock could use the win. Shares sit at about $112 as of this writing, roughly 1% above their all-time low of $110.85 and well below the $135 price from June's initial public offering (IPO).
Image source: The White House.
What tonight actually decides is the timeline of Starlink's next capacity leap. Each V3 satellite is designed to deliver about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, roughly 10 times what the current generation of satellites provides. A full Starship load of about 60 of them would add roughly 60 terabits per second to the network, about 20 times what a Falcon 9 launch delivers today. That capacity is what lets a satellite network sell faster service to more subscribers without congestion. It's the foundation of the company's plan to turn Starlink into a gigabit-speed internet provider.
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The satellites can only ride on Starship, though, and Starship has kept them grounded for eight days now. The 20 satellites aboard are a deployment test: They will extend their solar arrays and antennas and attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation. Until that demonstration works, the V3 capacity ramp stays theoretical.
A successful flight tonight won't settle the argument over the stock, which still carries a market value near $1.5 trillion against a business that loses money. The next major financial update arrives Aug. 4, when SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company. But a clean deployment would show the next generation of the company's biggest product working in space before those numbers land. After six weeks of nearly uninterrupted decline, that would count as the first hard piece of good news this stock has had.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The Trump Administration has not been shy about taking ownership stakes in what it views as critical suppliers of goods and services key to U.S. interests.
In recent years, the U.S. government has taken interests in semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (INTC -6.45%), rare-earth miner MP Materials (MP -7.26%), and lithium producer Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC -2.23%).
"The U.S. government has negotiated stakes in dozens of companies," reports CNBC. "Some U.S. ownership stakes have been opportunistic, while others have been a part of a broader economic strategy."
Now, there's a rising belief that the U.S. government will take ownership stakes in key artificial intelligence companies. Last month, Senator Bernie Sanders wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times suggesting that citizens consider nationalizing certain powerful companies that control critical AI technologies.
Image source: Getty Images.
"Artificial intelligence will almost certainly be the most transformational technology in the history of the world," Sanders wrote. "The question, then, is not whether A.I. will change the world. It will. The question is: Who will own and control that future? Who will benefit from it, and who will be hurt by it?"
Sanders's solution is to establish a sovereign wealth fund that can facilitate such direct stakes. AI investors should take note.
"I will soon be introducing the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act," Sanders revealed. "This legislation would give the public a direct ownership stake in the largest A.I. companies in our country. How? It would create a sovereign wealth fund through a one-time 50 percent tax -- not on the profits of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and other companies, but paid with something far more valuable than that: the stock."
Sanders specifically lists xAI -- the AI division of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.49%) -- as a potential target of partial nationalization. How seriously should investors be taking this? Betting markets offer some insight into what might happen next.
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Previous to SpaceX's historic IPO, betting markets were surprisingly bullish on the U.S. government nationalizing the company. In August of 2025, for example, certain betting markets had odds of the space company being nationalized by January of 2027 at around 11%, though limited trading volumes make this somewhat suspect.
As the year has rolled on, however, the odds of SpaceX being nationalized by the start of next year have consistently fallen. Current odds hover at roughly 4%. Considering the track record for things like this in prediction markets, it's fair to say that these are just guesses.
Of course, the government could always begin nationalization -- or at least the process of taking a direct stake -- after January of 2027. We just don't have betting markets for predicting such a situation. But if recent history is any indication, investors should not be surprised to see governments more directly involved in the AI sector's evolution.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseThe newest timeline has Starship due to take flight on FridayJuly 24, 2026, 1:17 p.m. ET
SpaceX's Starship rocket launch has faced a number of delays. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesSpaceX shares are headed for their ninth down day in the past 11 sessions as delays with the Starship rocket weigh on investor sentiment.
The aerospace company had initially planned for Starship to return to flight a week ago, less than a month after the rocket’s 12th test. But it was forced to abort the test after facing issues with its engines.
SpaceX stock is showing downward bias. Where are SPCX shares going? HSBC Says the Stock Has Already Priced In the Growth StoryHSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson initiated coverage of SpaceX Thursday with a Hold and a $115 price target, a level that lands beneath the company’s $135 IPO price.
The analyst looked at Tesla’s share price trajectory across its first decade as a public company as the most relevant benchmark for sizing the premium investors assign to disruptive technology companies under his leadership.
Even with that generous premium baked in, HSBC concluded the base case valuation accounts for Starlink’s continued subscriber expansion, a growing volume of launch activity and the early development of SpaceX’s artificial intelligence initiatives, suggesting those drivers are already reflected in the price rather than representing incremental upside.
SPCX Breaks From Sector Action as Communication Services Moves HigherThe gap widened as the session moved forward. SPCX slipped while Communication Services gained 0.88% and finished third out of the eleven sectors. That kind of divergence suggests the market is treating SPCX as its own risk category, driven more by name‑specific exposure than by sector beta.
The sector’s recent performance also explains why rallies can fade quickly when the Nasdaq weakens. Communication Services has fallen 8.23% over the past 90 days, a decline that encourages traders to stay skeptical and opportunistic. In that environment, any wobble in the broader tape can turn into a sell‑first moment.
From Rockets to Starlink to AI: The Narrative Stack Keeps GrowingSPCX has always carried a large storyline. Founded in 2002 and widely known as SpaceX, the company builds and operates reusable rockets that carry government and commercial payloads into orbit. In 2019, it added another layer by launching its own satellite network under the Starlink brand to provide mobile broadband and wireless connectivity.
SPCX Shares Are DippingSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were trading 3.53% lower at $114.07 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is near its 52-week low of $110.85, according to Benzinga Pro.
Image: Shutterstock
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On June 12, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -4.87%) completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. SpaceX stock initially opened on the Nasdaq at $150, valuing the company at north of $2 trillion. Just weeks later -- on July 7 -- the company was fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100 index.
Let's analyze how SpaceX stock has held up since joining the Nasdaq-100 and assess what a $5,000 investment made at that time is worth today.
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What is the Nasdaq-100 index? The Nasdaq-100 is an index that includes around 100 of the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Exchange, using a modified market capitalization weighting system. Investors can track the index through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as Invesco QQQ, making inclusion an event that triggers automatic buying from passive funds.
How has SpaceX stock performed since joining the Nasdaq-100? SpaceX stock closed at $149.47 after its first trading day as a member of the Nasdaq-100. By the closing bell on July 22, shares had dropped to $115.26 -- a decline of 23%.
Several factors have put pressure on SpaceX stock recently. These include profit-taking after the initial IPO hype faded, questions about the company's lofty valuation, and scrutiny over its aggressive capital expenditures and their impact on its operating losses.
Image source: Getty Images.
Breaking down the implications of an investment in SpaceX A $5,000 investment in SpaceX stock made at its closing price on July 7 would now be worth about $3,856. This loss illustrates the types of sharp swings that volatile growth stocks can undergo, even after hitting positive milestones.
SPCX data by YCharts.
Some SpaceX shareholders might consider cutting their losses if the stock's decline exceeds their comfort level. However, investors with a long-term mindset may employ a buy-and-hold approach or selectively add to their SpaceX positions on further dips to lower their cost basis.
While no single strategy fits every situation, smart investors understand that disciplined risk management remains essential, particularly when it comes to companies with lofty valuations, high expectations, and the inherent uncertainties that come with those attributes.
Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
When a company has its initial public offering (IPO), its shares begin trading on the open market, and the shares that insiders (such as investors, employees, and founders) own officially have value. However, those insiders aren't allowed to sell shares immediately; they have to wait until the designated lockup periods end.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -4.78%), better known as SpaceX), executed the largest (and arguably most hyped) IPO in stock market history, initially trading with a $1.77 trillion valuation. And after being invested and working for years or decades, you can bet plenty of insiders are ready to cash in and make moves on that house or dream car they've been eyeing.
Here's what you should know about SpaceX's lockup cliff.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
How SpaceX's lockup cliff is scheduled When SpaceX had its IPO, only around 4% of its shares were made available to the public. The rest will be gradually released as key dates are reached. Here is SpaceX's current lockup period schedule and how many shares are expected to be released at each point.
Key DatesDays Post-IPOSupply ReleasedAug. 6, 202655 days20% to 30%Aug. 20, 202670 days7%Sept. 9, 202690 days7%Sept. 24, 2026105 days7%Oct. 9, 2026120 days7%Oct. 24, 2026135 days7%Late October or early November 2026 (Q3 earnings)TBD28%Dec. 8, 2026180 daysRemaining employee balanceFebruary 2027 to August 2027240 to 420 days100% of institutional investorsJune 12, 2027366 days100% of Elon Musk's stake Data source: SpaceX's 424B4 filing.
SpaceX is scheduled to release its first earnings report on Aug. 4, which will trigger the first set of share unlocks, slated to happen on Aug. 6.
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How will SpaceX's stock perform after its initial lockup period? We can't predict how any stock will perform, but generally with an IPO, we see more volatility because insiders are unloading some of their shares. If you worked for a company for a decade or made an early investment, you likely want to see that work turn into cash and not just a number on paper.
With more people selling shares than buying, SpaceX's stock could take a temporary hit. Of course, this assumes insiders want to offload shares, which might not be the case, but chances are many will want to cash in while the stock is valued so highly (though it's trading lower than its initial IPO price as of July 21).
There's no need to rush to invest in SpaceX right now. Waiting until after the first one or two lock-up periods have expired is a smart choice for most investors.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPCX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Elon Musk's SpaceX is turning away satellite operators that want a ride to space on its Falcon 9 rocket, instead focusing on its unproven Starship vehicle. Bloomberg's Sana Pashankar reports.
Most of the buzz lately around Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.32%) centered on its artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions, including the Grok chatbot it absorbed and its plans for data centers in orbit. Those headlines are exciting.
But the initial public offering (IPO) from SpaceX (as the company is also known) points to a prize that could ultimately matter more: a connectivity opportunity that the company pegs at roughly $1.6 trillion.
Image source: Getty Images.
The connectivity opportunity That $1.6 trillion figure comes from Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, and it breaks down into two pieces. The company sees about $870 billion in fixed broadband -- beaming internet to homes and businesses the ground network cannot easily reach -- and roughly $740 billion in mobile services.
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Starlink is already the workhorse of SpaceX, serving more than 10 million customers and generating the bulk of the company's revenue. The next leg of growth is Starlink Mobile, the effort to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites and, in time, challenge traditional wireless carriers around the world.
Here is why I think connectivity could overshadow the AI story. The vision for an orbital data center is genuinely bold, but it is years away, unproven at scale, and still burning cash.
Starlink, by contrast, is real, growing fast, and already profitable. Connecting the billions of people who lack reliable internet, plus giving every phone a signal in dead zones, is a tangible, enormous market that SpaceX is capturing right now. When one business is a working, cash-generating machine and the other is a promising experiment, the working one usually deserves the spotlight.
The catch worth naming I would keep the trillion-dollar figure in perspective, though. That $1.6 trillion is a long-term addressable market, not revenue that SpaceX will book anytime soon. Skeptical analysts note that spectrum limits, cell-site capacity caps, and the physics of beaming data to unmodified phones could hold realistic mobile revenue to a small fraction of the headline number for years.
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Wireless carriers are also banding together to blunt Starlink's reach, and rivals like AST SpaceMobile are chasing the same satellite-to-phone dream. Turning a giant market into actual profit will take enormous capital and flawless execution.
The takeaway for investors SpaceX's AI vision will keep grabbing attention, but connectivity may quietly be the engine that powers the company's long-term value. For investors weighing the stock, Starlink and its push into mobile look like the more grounded reasons to be interested, not the orbital data centers everyone is talking about. I would watch the direct-to-cell rollout closely, because that is where a chunk of this $1.6 trillion opportunity either becomes real money or stays a slide in a pitch deck.
