SpaceX (SPCX -1.36%) closed at $160.95 on June 12, its first day as a public company, capping the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. On Friday, three months later, the stock closed at $152.71 -- about 5% below where it started.
Flat doesn't mean calm, though. Shares closed as high as $211.39 in their third session, took a beating into early August (bottoming near $108), and have spent most of September climbing back.
The business, meanwhile, has been anything but stuck. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year.
Why has one of the world's most valuable companies gone nowhere as a stock? I'd point to three things: a calendar of insider share unlocks, a first earnings report that revealed staggering spending, and a valuation that assumed years of success from the start.
Image source: Getty Images.
More insider shares unlock every few weeksSpaceX sold about 639 million shares in its IPO, but it has more than 13 billion outstanding. Nearly all the rest sat with insiders and early investors, barred from selling by lockup agreements -- and those restrictions lift on a schedule, not all at once.
About 911 million shares became eligible to trade two trading days after the Aug. 4 earnings report, 319 million followed on Aug. 20, and 319 million more came earlier this month. Shares rose the day the first batch came free and fell about 4% on the third.
But the calendar is far from finished. Releases of about 328 million shares each are scheduled for Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24. Another 1.3 billion or so follow two trading days after the third-quarter report, and about 800 million more on Dec. 8. CEO Elon Musk's stake of about 6.4 billion shares (roughly half the company) is locked up until next June.
Of course, eligible doesn't mean sold. Still, a buyer who knows billions of shares are coming may see little reason to hurry, and that patience arguably keeps rallies from sticking.
An $18.4 billion quarter of spendingSpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, released Aug. 4, was strong where investors usually look first. Revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, a sharp acceleration from 15% growth in the first quarter. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.0 billion a year earlier, and the loss from operations shrank to $143 million from the first quarter's $1.9 billion.
The number that rattled investors was capital expenditures. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the quarter, more than double its revenue, with $15.8 billion of it in the artificial intelligence (AI) segment, home to the company's data centers, Grok models, and X.
And the spending is climbing fast. A year earlier, AI capital expenditures were $749 million. By the first quarter of 2026 they had reached $7.7 billion, and they more than doubled again from there. The stock's lowest close as a public company came the day after the report.
To be fair, SpaceX can fund the program for a while. The company ended June with $100 billion of cash and marketable securities, most of it from the roughly $86 billion its IPO brought in.
And the outlays are finding customers. SpaceX signed $14.1 billion of cloud services agreements during the quarter, and AI segment revenue more than tripled year over year to $2.6 billion.
What would get the stock moving?SpaceX went public at a price that valued it near $1.8 trillion -- about 94 times sales at the first quarter's annualized pace. The market value sits near $2 trillion today, but revenue has grown so fast that the same calculation now lands around 65 times sales. In other words, the stock has spent three months growing into its price.
Today's Change
(
-1.36
%) $
-2.10
Current Price
$
152.71
SpaceX said this week that Starship's first attempt to reach orbit is now targeted for Sept. 28, after a six-day delay. A successful flight could move one of the company's costliest projects closer to producing revenue, and it's probably the next date that matters. But one flight can't settle a $2 trillion price.
Ultimately, the standstill says more about the starting price than about the business. Revenue growth is accelerating and losses are shrinking. Even so, shares cost about 65 times annualized sales, and billions more of them come free by December.
I don't think this is the right time to buy the stock. If December's big lockup releases pass without much damage and the AI spending keeps turning into revenue, I would consider changing my mind.
SpaceX targets 5-10 GW of compute capacity in 2027, potentially making AI its largest long-term revenue engine. SemiAnalysis estimates 10 GW could support roughly $300 billion ARR if half of incremental compute capacity is externally monetized. Starlink generated a 62.9% EBITDA margin in 2025, but Connectivity simultaneously required approximately $4.18 billion of capital expenditures.
The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%) IPO was one of the most highly anticipated public offerings in years. Within a few days of going public, SpaceX had a valuation of $2.7 trillion after raising nearly $86 billion in funding.
Then things started going sideways. The stock began falling amid fears that SpaceX is spending too much on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and shares still trade below their opening price of $150 as of this writing. At one point, the share price fell enough to wipe out more than $1 trillion from SpaceX's valuation over a one-month span.
Another AI company, Anthropic, could go public as soon as next month. Like SpaceX, it's a highly anticipated IPO. But investors would be wise to take the recent SpaceX sell-off as a warning that buying IPO stocks when they first go public is rarely a good move. History shows it's far better to wait before buying -- here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
What potential Anthropic investors can learn from SpaceX's $1 trillion wipeout While there was an initial surge in interest for SpaceX, investors quickly turned their attention to the company's massive AI spending spree. The company's capital expenditures (capex) jumped 308% in the first six months of this year, compared to 2025, reaching $28.5 billion. That's a hefty sum, especially when you consider that SpaceX sales were just $12.5 billion over that same period.
While SpaceX is well known as a rocket company, its AI business is its largest expense. SpaceX owns the Grok chatbot and is building its Colossus data centers to sell AI computing capacity to customers. That resulted in 86% of the company's capex going to AI.
The problem for AI companies right now is that investors are increasingly skeptical of excessive spending without corresponding significant growth in revenue or profits.
Anthropic said recently that it has an annualized revenue run rate of $65 billion, nearly seven times its total sales in 2025. But Anthropic hasn't disclosed its capex yet, and it's safe to say the company is spending heavily to build out its AI capacity, likely much more than SpaceX.
Investors didn't like SpaceX's ramp-up in AI spending, and the sticker shock could be even greater with Anthropic.
Today's Change
(
-1.36
%) $
-2.10
Current Price
$
152.71
History says the Anthropic IPO will fizzle at first Jefferies research spanning more than two decades of IPOs shows that companies worth $10 billion or more when they go public average a 26.5% return in their first week. Pretty good, right? The problem is that over the first 12 months following their public debut, the average share price gain is just 3.5%.
Add to this historical data the fact that investors are skeptical of high AI spending and that recent calls for an AI slowdown are hammering tech stocks, and you have a recipe for one very volatile Anthropic IPO.
So, if there's one lesson SpaceX (and history) can teach potential Anthropic investors right now, it's to probably sit out the IPO when it happens.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%) stock has struggled a bit following its blockbuster IPO. But the space stock's current valuation of roughly $2 trillion still remains above its initial IPO market cap of $1.77 trillion.
On Wall Street, opinions on where SpaceX stock will go from here vary widely. Of the 34 analysts who have issued reports, 26 recommend buying, six are holds, and two suggest the stock is a sell. One analyst has an $800 price target on shares, implying more than 500% in near-term upside. Another analyst, however, predicts the stock will actually lose value over the next 12 months and suggests selling.
What has Wall Street so split on the space stock? There's one obvious factor that every SpaceX investor should understand.
Image source: Getty Images.
Here's why Wall Street is split on SpaceX stock The bull case for SpaceX stock largely hinges on the company's ability to scale its artificial intelligence (AI) compute infrastructure. Morgan Stanley analysts, for example, say SpaceX's AI compute infrastructure has the potential to be faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient than the competition. This potential has Morgan Stanley forecasting the company could be a "generational compounder that converts energy into a networked/swarming intelligence at scale."
Oppenheimer analysts, meanwhile, predict SpaceX could become the "largest" AI company on the planet. "We see it as the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent," the analysts stress.
SpaceX largely agrees with these analysts' views of the company's growth potential. In its IPO prospectus, SpaceX management noted that the company is targeting a $28.5 trillion total addressable market. Around $26.5 trillion of that total opportunity -- more than 90% -- relates exclusively to AI.
Because so much of SpaceX's long-term growth opportunity depends solely on scaling its AI business, the bearish view on shares largely deals with the potential underperformance of this division. But even factoring in AI success has left some analysts scratching their heads.
Today's Change
(
-1.36
%) $
-2.10
Current Price
$
152.71
When SpaceX was preparing to go public, Morningstar analysts conducted a thorough review and concluded that the company was worth less than half of its initial IPO valuation. Morningstar settled on a valuation of just $63 per share -- far less than Morgan Stanley's current $300 price target.
Interestingly, even when Morningstar assumed more success for SpaceX's AI division, the resulting valuation still didn't indicate that shares were a buy.
"Only the most optimistic Moonshot scenario, which requires a rapidly reusable Starship and commercially competitive orbital data centers, approaches the IPO price," Morningstar warned. "The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain."
What should investors do? I largely agree with Morningstar's analysis, even if its base case seems overly conservative. SpaceX as a business is laudable. The company has already pioneered several innovative technologies, such as its low-Earth orbit Starlink satellite network -- a business segment that is already profitable with rapid top-line growth rates. But it's fair to conclude that the vast majority of SpaceX's growth potential lies ahead. And there's simply so much we don't yet know about the pace and scale of SpaceX's growth, regardless of how the underlying markets ultimately shape up.
The core split between bullish and bearish Wall Street analysts on SpaceX stock deals with expectations for its AI business. And while SpaceX should grow tremendously in the years to come, the company's $2 trillion valuation already factors in much of that opportunity. That fact alone is keeping me on the sidelines for now.
Could an Anthropic IPO top that of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%)? Three months after SpaceX listed, that is the question all over Wall Street. While SpaceX reset the IPO scoreboard, Anthropic has to decide whether it wants to beat Elon Musk's record on cash raised, valuation, or just on the story. These are three very different fights.
Image source: Getty Images.
How SpaceX reset the IPO narrative SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12. Shares opened around $150, and the company raised a total of $86.2 billion after an overallotment was exercised. That crushed Saudi Aramco's old record of roughly $26 billion raised in 2019. By the end of its first day of trading, SpaceX boasted a market cap around $2.1 trillion -- implying a 112 times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio based on 2025 revenue.
SpaceX only sold about 4% of the company in the IPO. This means investors paid a moonshot premium for a lumpy rocket business attached to a small broadband connectivity operation and an unproven artificial intelligence (AI) story that is bleeding cash.
Detailing Anthropic's valuation history Anthropic was valued at $61.5 billion in early 2025 and jumped to $183 billion by September of that year. By February, Anthropic's value had risen to $380 billion after raising $30 billion in a Series G financing round. Most recently, Anthropic was valued at $965 billion after raising another $65 billion in May.
That Series H round was led by a consortium of private equity, venture capital, and strategic corporations. Some of the more interesting names to participate in the round include Amazon and chip suppliers such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
The number that matters most for Anthropic's IPO is its annualized run rate (AAR). At the end of last year, Anthropic's ARR run rate hovered around $9 billion. During its raise in May, the company confirmed it had reached a run rate of $47 billion, and it later told investors that the pace hit $65 billion by July.
This level of growth confirms that enterprises are not buying a simple chatbot. Customers are paying for the Claude API inside production apps: Claude Code writing software, Claude Cowork handling administrative work around operations and legal, and Claude for Financial Advisors to help wealth managers review portfolios.
Bigger is a slippery word Anthropic has filed a confidential S-1 and is reportedly considering a public listing this fall. Some rumors are circulating that the IPO could be valued around $2 trillion. In this sense, Anthropic could be a larger debut than SpaceX.
However, if "larger" means cash raised, the company has a high bar to clear that might require a bigger float compared to SpaceX. I question whether founders and existing investors would accept the level of dilution required to get there.
Do not buy Anthropic's IPO the same way people poured into SpaceX in the opening scene. The prudent strategy is to wait for the S-1 to become publicly available, confirm how much of the company's revenue is recurring Claude subscriptions versus one-off usage, and treat the debut print as a spectacle.
Chasing a $2 trillion open is how you become exit liquidity. Patience and discipline will allow you to buy Anthropic stock at a more reasonable price once the post-IPO hype shakes out.
Perhaps few stocks can divide a room faster than Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%). Many investors love the stock; many absolutely don't. Either way, most eyes have been on the space stock since its blockbuster IPO in June, which raised a record $75 billion and valued SpaceX at about $1.8 trillion.
Following its explosive debut, SpaceX shot up to an all-time closing high of roughly $211. Today it trades at around $152, roughly 28% lower. That sharp pullback begs the question: What will SpaceX be worth in five years?
Image source: Getty Images.
On the one hand, there's potential for substantial growth. Indeed, Morgan Stanley once predicted that SpaceX's revenue will grow from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030.
If Morgan Stanley is even remotely right, SpaceX could grow into a $4 trillion company by 2031 without requiring anything close to today's high sales multiple. Morgan Stanley itself has maintained a $300 price target on SpaceX. That would turn a $10,000 investment today into about $19,700, or nearly double your money.
Today's Change
(
-1.36
%) $
-2.10
Current Price
$
152.71
On the flip side, SpaceX already has an absurdly high valuation. It trades at about 68 times sales and 200 times forward earnings. If those figures mean nothing to you, let me put it plainly: Investors are paying a lot today for growth that hasn't materialized yet. That means that even if the business continued to grow, the stock might not rise nearly as fast, as fundamentals catch up to the valuation.
For that reason, my prediction is a little more cautious: By 2031, I think SpaceX will be worth $250. At that price, a $10,000 investment would be worth about $16,500. That's still a strong return for a growth stock, even if it's not as spectacular as some of the more bullish forecasts imply.
Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
In June, SpaceX (SPCX -1.36%) successfully completed its blockbuster IPO, raising more than $85 billion. In the days that followed, SpaceX's market cap soared from an initial IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion to nearly $2.8 trillion. Shares corrected hard after the surge, however, and SpaceX's valuation now hovers just below $2 trillion -- a 36% decline versus the company's all-time high.
Morgan Stanley (MS -0.46%) analysts remain unfazed regarding the space stock's long-term growth potential. On Sept. 15, the bank reiterated its "buy" rating on shares, affirming its $300 price target. That price target implies more than 100% in near-term upside over the next 12 months.
Why does Morgan Stanley remain so bullish? The answer might surprise you.
Today's Change
(
-1.36
%) $
-2.10
Current Price
$
152.71
Morgan Stanley appears all-in on the space economy. The bank, in many ways, predicted SpaceX's meteoric rise years before much of the public caught on.
"[A] new space age is dawning, setting technological goals that would have seemed the stuff of Isaac Asimov in 1969," Morgan Stanley analysts concluded in a 2020 report. "Although the 'space unicorns' have caught the eye of news media, hundreds of other new start-ups have formed in the past several years to explore opportunities in space infrastructure -- satellite manufacturing, launch capabilities, IT hardware -- and adjacent areas, such as space tourism, satellite broadband, media, and even asteroid mining."
Notably, this 2020 report warned investors that the biggest returns would be realized by long-term investors.
"Because success in space promises to be a multidecade endeavor -- with returns on some lofty endeavors that could be many years away -- this new economy requires patient investors," the bank stressed. "For some of these funds, the exit plans can be 50 years out."
Image source: Getty Images.
Indeed, Morgan Stanley's latest outlook on SpaceX stock continues to stress the importance of long-term thinking. But Morgan Stanley's bullish $300 price target on shares isn't predicated on the space economy. Instead, it's heavily focused on AI opportunities, which, according to SpaceX, comprises $26.5 trillion of the company's total $28.5 trillion addressable market.
According to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, SpaceX has become "a potential generational compounder that converts energy into a networked/swarming intelligence at scale." In layman's terms, Jonas is predicting that SpaceX will be able to aggressively and sustainably scale its AI compute infrastructure to serve the world's rapidly growing appetite for AI services.
"SPCX has the pieces to build an industry-leading intelligence per watt, per dollar, per second," Jonas adds. Again, in layman's terms, Jonas is arguing that SpaceX's AI compute infrastructure has the potential to be cheaper, faster, and more energy efficient than the competition, advantages that stem from scale, strategy, and vertical integration.
Half of Morgan Stanley's $300 price target is justified by the growth potential of SpaceX's AI business. That's over the short term, however, Long term, even SpaceX concedes that more than 90% of its total growth potential lies with AI. The company's space endeavors -- which include everything from orbital data centers to lunar-based GPU production -- will largely support SpaceX's core AI business.
So whether you're looking at Morgan Stanley's near-term projections or SpaceX's long-term market estimates, AI will remain the primary driver of SpaceX's valuation for years to come.
SpaceX (SPCX, Financials), Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite company, is reportedly considering an unusual way to get more of the raw material needed to build better AI models.
The company has held internal discussions about buying customer, operational and other data from troubled or failed startups, according to Bloomberg.
The talks remain informal and may not result in any transactions.
Still, the idea points to a growing issue across AI: valuable training data is becoming an asset of its own.
SpaceX has already used information from Musk's social network X, along with internal AI tutors, to help train and improve its software. The company reportedly paused hiring for those tutors earlier this year.
Buying data from struggling companies could give SpaceX another source without having to generate everything internally.
The push comes as AI becomes a larger part of SpaceX's spending.
The company invested $15.8 billion in AI-related capital expenditures during the second quarter. Its AI business generated $2.56 billion in revenue during the period but posted a $1.26 billion operating loss.
That makes the next question more important than where SpaceX finds the data.
Investors will be watching whether that spending can eventually turn the company's expanding AI operation into a profitable business.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) built Starlink to connect places traditional broadband could not reach. Now CEO Elon Musk says the satellite network has crossed a more consequential threshold: Starlink is "now often more reliable than cable."
The claim matters because reliability, rather than raw speed, could be what turns Starlink from a rural alternative into a broader broadband competitor.
Starlink Closes the GapMusk made the claim Friday on X, arguing that Starlink can now deliver a more dependable connection than cable in many cases.
There is some independent evidence behind the broader point. A Recon Analytics survey of more than 153,000 broadband users found that Starlink customers reported fewer service outages than cable and DSL customers, although fiber customers experienced fewer outages than Starlink users. Most of the Starlink respondents lived in rural areas, where terrestrial broadband options can be weaker.
That distinction is important. Musk did not say Starlink beats every cable or fiber network. His use of "often" leaves room for differences between markets and infrastructure.
Starlink’s own network has also improved significantly. SpaceX reported median global latency of about 26 milliseconds in 2025, while peak-hour median download speeds exceeded 200 Mbps. The company said it was targeting stable 20-millisecond median latency and lower packet loss as its constellation and ground network expanded.
Read Next
The Satellite AdvantageThe reliability argument becomes particularly interesting because Starlink does not need the same local infrastructure as cable.
A cable outage can be tied to a neighborhood node, damaged line or other terrestrial infrastructure. Starlink instead connects users through a constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites and ground stations. That gives the service a structural advantage in places where upgrading terrestrial networks is expensive or difficult.
The network is also getting bigger. SpaceX had more than 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit and about 10.3 million subscribers across 164 markets as of March 2026.
That scale matters because every additional satellite can add capacity and coverage to a network that is increasingly becoming an alternative to terrestrial broadband.
Reliability Could Unlock the Next MarketStarlink still has trade-offs. Independent broadband comparisons continue to find fiber more consistent in many locations, while Starlink can face weather-related disruptions, obstructions and higher costs than conventional broadband.
But reliability is becoming a different kind of selling point as the network matures.
For SpaceX investors, the bigger question is whether Starlink can move beyond being the best available option where cable is weak and become a credible alternative even where cable already exists.
Musk’s latest claim suggests SpaceX believes it is getting there — and subscriber growth, network performance and churn will be the numbers to watch next.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.55%) beat the record for the largest IPO ever when it went public in June. The space company raised $75 billion, valuing the stock at $1.77 trillion. SpaceX's record is still fresh, but it may not last much longer as Anthropic, a leading developer of large language models (LLMs), prepares to go public soon.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The massive AI opportunity Anthropic makes money by selling access to its family of Claude LLMs to individuals and enterprises. Some might argue that it shouldn't be valued higher than SpaceX. After all, the rocket company has been a pioneer in its field, and its breakthroughs have substantially decreased the cost of space travel. SpaceX is the runaway leader in the space launch industry and generates meaningful revenue from contracts with various government agencies. SpaceX is also ahead of its competitors in innovation.
The company is working on a next-gen rocket, Starship, designed to be fully reusable. SpaceX could once again change the economics of space travel thanks to Starship. However, SpaceX itself argued that its most important opportunities are in the AI industry, and it's not even close.
The rocket company estimated a total addressable market (TAM) in AI of $26.5 trillion, and a TAM of $28.5 trillion across its entire business. SpaceX's accomplishments in the space industry have been impressive over the past two decades -- that's an established track record of breakthroughs and eventual market dominance that Anthropic arguably doesn't have in AI. But SpaceX's valuation is largely a function of its AI opportunities, and Anthropic is performing extremely well in that industry.
Today's Change
(
-2.55
%) $
-3.95
Current Price
$
150.86
According to some reports, Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate topped $65 billion at the end of July. That's higher than SpaceX's annualized revenue run rate of about $31.2 billion as of its latest quarter. Further, Anthropic has been growing rapidly. The company's second-quarter revenue was above $11.5 billion, up 143% quarter over quarter and an impressive 1,361% higher than the year-ago period.
Also, Anthropic's adjusted operating income is positive, which is no easy feat, given the level of investment required to provide its services. Training frontier AI models isn't cheap. Given all that, it's not surprising that Anthropic is expected to beat SpaceX's IPO record when it does go public, which could happen as soon as next month. But should investors buy the stock as soon as they have the chance?
SpaceX's recent IPO offers a useful case study. SpaceX has essentially moved sideways since its IPO, despite soaring as high as $225.64 at one point and posting excellent second-quarter financial results. Most of what SpaceX has accomplished since going public was arguably already baked into the share price. Something similar could happen with Anthropic. Despite its rapidly growing revenue and massive opportunities in the AI industry, at a market value of $2 trillion or more, the upside might be limited. That's why I'd hold off on buying Anthropic's shares when the company goes public.
NASA just awarded SpaceX another satellite launch, and the ripple effects for small-launch rivals are real. Before you buy either name for a retirement portfolio, the valuation math tells a story Wall Street often glosses over.
NASA just handed SpaceX another launch manifest slot, and the question for retirement-focused investors is direct: how do SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) compare for retirement-focused portfolios after the StarBurst decision? The StarBurst satellite will fly on a Falcon 9 rideshare mission no earlier than 2028, and while the dollars are modest, rideshare keeps siphoning missions that might otherwise have gone to dedicated small-launch providers. That structural squeeze frames everything below.
Valuation: Premium Priced, but One Has Real Cash Flow Both names trade at eye-watering multiples. SpaceX carries a 204x forward P/E, a price-to-sales ratio of 88.56, and an EV/EBITDA of 510. Rocket Lab looks cheaper on sales at a 52.96 price-to-sales, but its forward P/E sits at 1,111 and its EV/EBITDA is negative at -16 because EBITDA itself is negative.
The tiebreaker is quality of cash generation. SpaceX put up $3.54 billion in adjusted EBITDA last quarter, up 191% year over year, and sits on $93.5 billion in cash. Rocket Lab’s adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $8.8 million, an improvement, but still red ink. Winner: SPCX. Paying up for a franchise that already prints EBITDA beats paying up for one that doesn’t.
Growth Trajectory: Small Base, Bigger Percentage Runway SpaceX grew Q2 revenue roughly 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, with the AI segment alone up 247% to $2.56 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million. Backlog sits at $47.5 billion.
Rocket Lab grew 62% to $234.07 million and guided Q3 to $250 million to $265 million. Backlog jumped 137% to $2.36 billion, and CEO Peter Beck told analysts “the launch demand is extreme” and “launch has never been so constrained.” The Neutron medium-lift rocket is targeted for a Q4 2026 debut, and pending deals for Mynaric, Motiv, and Iridium widen the aperture materially.
Winner: RKLB. Off a $769 million TTM revenue base, Neutron plus the Iridium takeout offers more percentage torque than SpaceX can deliver at a $1.17 trillion market cap.
Volatility and Balance Sheet Risk: Not Even Close Rocket Lab carries a beta of 2.612, has traded between a 52-week low of $37.57 and a high of $151, and just dropped 18.77% over the past month. Shareholders funded that ride with heavy dilution: $1.53 billion raised via ATM offerings in the first half of 2026 alone. Add Neutron execution risk (a prior stage 1 tank test failure delayed launch) and three simultaneous acquisition integrations, and the risk stack is dense.
SpaceX, freshly public, is volatile too, but the $93.5 billion cash pile and a $25 billion investment-grade bond issuance give it staying power no small-cap can match. Winner: SPCX.
Verdict for Retirement-Focused Investors SpaceX wins two of three dimensions that matter for a long-horizon, capital-preservation-minded portfolio: valuation quality and downside protection. For a retiree or near-retiree researching space-economy exposure without funding a dilution treadmill, SPCX screens more favorably on cash flow and balance sheet metrics. The Barron’s read that AI demand keeps pulling SpaceX higher only reinforces the diversified-cash-machine thesis.
Rocket Lab wins one dimension outright, growth trajectory, and it wins it decisively. But that win belongs to a different investor: a younger, risk-tolerant buyer who can stomach a 2.6 beta, ATM dilution, and Neutron execution risk in exchange for a real shot at multi-bagger returns if Neutron flies clean. Retirement portfolios generally prioritize capital preservation over speculative upside. RKLB may warrant further research for investors focused on speculative growth exposure.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
You are now leaving Barron's websiteBy clicking on the “Proceed” button below, you will be redirected to a third-party website owned and operated by Hong Kong Tiimoot Information Technology Co., Limited. (“HKT”), which is located in Hong Kong. That website operates independently from Barron's and Barron's does not control the website. The privacy practices of HKT are subject to its Privacy Statement, so please read it closely. We are not responsible for HKT's privacy or other data-related practices.
While it hasn't been an entirely smooth ride, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may reach a major milestone this fall with the initial public offering (IPO) of Anthropic. The fast-growing AI lab plans to raise about $100 billion from investors, giving it a $2 trillion valuation as it spends to remain at the forefront of the world's most advanced AI systems.
Investors have rewarded this company with a premium valuation, but the $100 billion capital raise should help cash flow across the entire AI supply chain, including for power-generation stocks. Here's how the Anthropic IPO could affect power providers like Vistra (VST +2.26%), Bloom Energy (BE +3.98%), and Oklo (OKLO +11.31%) in the coming years.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
81/100
Today's Change
(
3.98
%) $
10.74
Current Price
$
280.76
Core power for data center development Vistra is a power provider sitting on opportunistic assets in 2026, which is why the stock is up 700% during the past five years. The company is a non-utility power provider, meaning it sells electric power generation directly to wholesalers, such as data center operators.
It has assets ranging across the board, from nuclear to natural gas to solar, allowing it to sell whatever type of power customers are looking for. When electricity demand starts to grow, Vistra can sell its power at even higher prices under long-term deals, locking in revenue streams for many years.
This is exactly what has happened under its 20-year deals with Amazon and Meta Platforms, both of which were signed within the last 12 months. With the Anthropic IPO, the company will have even more cash to plow into cloud computing credits, leading to greater demand for Vistra in the electric power sector and for its AI competitors.
Image source: Getty Images.
Back-up generators and rapid deployments The urgency from players in the AI race means that speed in data center deployments matters above all else. Bloom Energy serves this need with its innovative generator solutions.
The company's solid oxide modular systems can quickly connect to natural gas sources while simultaneously minimizing emissions usually associated with fossil fuels, a win-win for data center builders. Once a data center officially connects to the electric grid or with a power provider like Vistra, Bloom Energy's generators serve as supplemental electric power and a backup in case of an outage.
Revenue rose 166% year over year last quarter, leading the company to raise its full-year outlook. When Anthropic goes public and has $100 billion to spend, this should flow through to all the competitors in the data center and cloud computing industry, which will be racing to buy Bloom Energy generators.
VST Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
A long-term bet on power generation Oklo is also in the power generation game, but on a slightly different timeline than Vistra and Bloom Energy, which are investments in power generation today.
The company is a nuclear power start-up, planning to manufacture isotopes, fuel, and reactors for the entire nuclear energy supply chain. Theoretically, this is a perfect solution for the data center power issue today. However, Oklo does not have a design approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and is awaiting approval to begin constructing reactors sometime next year.
On its current timeline, Oklo believes it can get a reactor up and running in 2027 or 2028, but unforeseen circumstances almost always delay these deadlines. This makes Oklo a company that could benefit from Anthropic's massive IPO capital raise but likely won't, because it won't have any power to sell until later this decade.
With a market cap of just $6.5 billion and no electric power to sell at the moment, Oklo does not look like a good bet. If you want to bet on industrial power players for the AI boom, Vistra and Bloom Energy look like better stocks to buy.
Following a slowdown earlier in September, the SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock rally has once again turned more decisive, and the equity was, at its latest close, trading at $154.81: roughly in the middle of its day-one range.
Under the circumstances, investors who managed to fill a $10,000 SPCX shares order during the initial public offering (IPO) would have enjoyed a respectable profit. Specifically, with SpaceX stock rising 14.67% from $135 at the IPO, their position would have risen by $1,467.41 to $11,467.41.
Similarly, traders who put the same amount of money on the morning of June 12 – SPCX shares’ first day on the market – would have acquired a stake at $150. Thus, their $10,000 would have grown by $320.67 to $10,320.67.
Still, investing at the day-one closing price of $160.95 would have remained a losing bet by the September 17 close. Specifically, SpaceX retraced 3.81% from the price, meaning the $10,000 position would have declined to $9,618.52.
SpaceX stock price performance. Source: Google SpaceX stock price saw extreme swings since SPCX launch Elsewhere, SPCX shares have, so far, proven a significantly more uncertain investment than the hype surrounding the company might suggest.
Indeed, traders who did not buy into the initial optimism and excitement and wagered that a steep correction would come would have seen a large upside.
For example, those lucky enough to have bought early in August at the all-time low of $104.83 would have been able to turn $10,000 into $14,767.72.
On the flip side, had one taken the initial upsurge as a sign that the SpaceX stock bull case is confirmed might have proven unlucky enough to buy at the $225.64 high. These investors might have suffered their $10,000 drop to roughly $6,500.
What’s next for SpaceX stock? Looking ahead, there is substantial institutional optimism for SPCX equity, with the average price target for mid-2027 estimating it can reach $222.94, per the data Finbold retrieved early on September 18.
Wall Street sets SpaceX stock price target for the next 12 months. Source: TradingView Should this outlook – or some of the recent, even more bullish forecasts – prove correct, putting $10,000 into Elon Musk’s newer public company at its IPO can easily become one of the most lucrative decisions of 2026 within less than 12 months.
Still, the optimism is not universal, with some respectable firms, such as Morningstar, estimating that SpaceX will be a successful company, but still one with a stock fair value close to $70 – nearly 50% below the initial $135 share price.
You are now leaving Barron's websiteBy clicking on the “Proceed” button below, you will be redirected to a third-party website owned and operated by Hong Kong Tiimoot Information Technology Co., Limited. (“HKT”), which is located in Hong Kong. That website operates independently from Barron's and Barron's does not control the website. The privacy practices of HKT are subject to its Privacy Statement, so please read it closely. We are not responsible for HKT's privacy or other data-related practices.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) Sept. 22 Starship flight will test more than whether the world’s biggest rocket can reach orbit. For investors, the more important question is whether Starship is finally becoming the infrastructure behind SpaceX’s next phase of growth, starting with Starlink.
Flight 14 could provide the clearest signal yet that the rocket is moving from development project to business asset.
Starship Meets StarlinkThe company is targeting Sept. 22 for Starship’s first attempt to reach Earth orbit, pending regulatory approval. The mission will deploy 26 third-generation Starlink satellites, making it the first Starship flight to carry an operational payload. The spacecraft is expected to complete roughly six orbits over nearly 10 hours before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean.
That payload is what makes this flight particularly relevant to investors. SpaceX is no longer testing Starship in isolation; it is testing whether the rocket can become part of Starlink’s expansion engine.
TechCrunch noted that the mission would also be the first Starship flight capable of generating revenue for SpaceX’s launch business, even though the payload comes from another part of the company.
The distinction matters because Starship’s eventual value depends on what it enables. More reliable launches could allow SpaceX to deploy satellites faster and at greater scale, supporting the growth of its connectivity business.
Orbit Is Only Step OneStill, investors should be careful about treating a successful orbital insertion as proof that Starship’s economics are solved.
SpaceX has not planned a tower catch for either the Starship upper stage or Super Heavy booster on this flight. Instead, both vehicles will splash down, while SpaceX has made additional hardware and software changes to address problems seen during the previous test.
That leaves the biggest part of the Starship investment thesis still ahead: reusability at high frequency.
Read Next
SpaceX ultimately needs Starship to launch, return, and fly again quickly enough to materially lower the cost of putting payloads into orbit. Flight 14 can demonstrate progress toward that goal, but it cannot prove the full economics on its own.
The Investor TestThat is why investors in Elon Musk‘s space company should watch the Sept. 22 mission in stages: orbital insertion, Starlink deployment, vehicle performance and the eventual splashdowns.
A successful flight would mark an important engineering milestone. More importantly, it would strengthen the case that Starship can become the launch backbone for Starlink’s next expansion phase. The bigger catalyst, however, will be the follow-on cadence: how quickly SpaceX can turn one successful orbital mission into a repeatable system.
For investors, Sept. 22 is therefore less about one launch than the beginning of a new question: can Starship turn SpaceX’s enormous engineering investment into a scalable economic advantage?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX shares traded higher on Thursday, extending the previous session’s rally as investors focused on the company’s busy launch schedule and plans for the next Starship test flight.
SpaceX successfully launched its USSF-259 mission on Wednesday aboard a Falcon 9 from Space Launch Complex 4E in California.
The rocket’s booster landed on a droneship following liftoff.
The company has several additional missions scheduled, including a Starlink launch on September 19-20 and the USSF-385 mission on September 26.
SpaceX announced Thursday that it had rescheduled the 14th test flight of Starship to as early as September 28, subject to regulatory approval.
According to the company’s release, the initial orbital mission is expected to reach approximately 275 kilometres above Earth and complete about six orbits during a nearly 10-hour flight.
The mission is expected to end with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile.
The launch schedule has added to investor attention around SpaceX’s space business.
Wednesday’s rally also followed comments from Cathie Wood, who suggested a single Starship mission could eventually be worth close to $1 billion if the vehicle reaches a target of 10,000 flights annually by 2030.
Air Force Secretary Troy Meink also recently discussed the presence of weapons already positioned in orbit as part of broader developments involving space-based capabilities.
The comments were not specific to SpaceX but added to the broader backdrop for the space industry.
Seeking Alpha analyst Danil Sereda noted that the stock was trading about 41% above its August lows following the company’s earnings results.
He said SpaceX’s business could be viewed across three main areas: launch, connectivity and AI.
The launch business includes Falcon 9, Starship V3 and Starshield. The connectivity business is led by Starlink, while the AI operations include xAI, Grok and terrestrial and orbital compute.
Sereda highlighted the capital requirements associated with the launch and AI businesses.
He said the launch unit generated $962 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up 29% year over year, but recorded an operating loss of $542 million.
The AI business generated $2.56 billion in revenue but recorded a $1.26 billion operating loss, Sereda noted.
Starlink remains key to SpaceX outlookStarlink is the largest profitable component highlighted by the analyst.
The segment's revenue increased 66% year over year to $4.29 billion in the second quarter, while its EBITDA margin reached 60.5%.
SpaceX added 1.7 million net subscribers during the quarter.
Average revenue per user declined from $99 a month to $66, although the figure stabilised on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Sereda said Starlink’s growth and operating leverage distinguish it from SpaceX’s more capital-intensive launch and AI businesses.
Starlink operated more than 10,200 low-Earth-orbit satellites across 167 markets and had 12 million active users as of the second quarter.
SpaceX’s latest launch activity and Starship plans therefore continue to draw attention, while investors assess the different growth and capital requirements across its launch, connectivity, and AI operations.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPCX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Early SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) investor Antonio Gracias is turning his private equity company’s stake into profits for backers of the company through a donation of shares, a move that comes as the stock is soaring higher.
SpaceX Investor Gives Away SharesThe SpaceX IPO helped make CEO Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. While he’s not worth a trillion dollars, Valor Equity Partners CEO and founder Antonio Gracias also has gained significant net worth in 2026 thanks to the public offering.
Gracias is worth an estimated $20.5 billion according to Bloomberg, ranking 127th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The investor has added $5.82 billion in wealth in 2026.
A Form4 filing from Gracias and Valor shows that the investor gave away around 8.5% of the company’s SpaceX holdings (42,790,223) shares. After the giveaway, Valor still owns 460,624,307 SpaceX shares, representing around 3.4% of the space company, as reported by Bloomberg.
The $8.5 billion in shares donated to early investors could be done for tax advantages and is meant to reward the investors in Valor Equity Partners who were early backers in the space company. The move allows investors in Valor Equity to take profits from the space company, while the private equity firm retains the majority of its SpaceX holdings.
Gracias currently serves on the Board of Directors of SpaceX and remains one of the largest shareholders with his large ownership stake in Valor Equity Partners.
The investor mentioned returning capital via distributions back in June prior to the IPO, according to Bloomberg.
While Gracias is allowing some of the Valor investors the chance to take profits from the SpaceX IPO, he previously said he planned on holding the stock for the long term.
Read Next
Believer in Elon MuskGracias was previously introduced to Musk via David Sacks. Valor began investing in SpaceX in 2008 and, by 2021, had invested around $400 million in the company.
Along with being one of the biggest backers of SpaceX, Gracias and Valor are also invested in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Gracias was previously a member of the Tesla Board of Directors from 2007 to 2021, before stepping down.
Gracias and Valor also invested in Musk’s The Boring Company earlier this year.
SpaceX Stock Price ActionSpaceX stock is up 2.2% to $154.20 versus a 52-week trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. SpaceX stock hit its highest level since July 9 with Thursday’s stock gains.
SpaceX, aka Space Exploration Technologies Corp., maintains a significant valuation premium post-IPO despite the recent post-lockup expiry, supported by resilient institutional confidence and a robust execution roadmap. Increasing vertical integration across Starship launch, Starlink, and AI infrastructure strengthens longer-term revenue scalability and operating leverage. This, alongside SpaceX's latest contract win promising $1.11 billion in monthly revenue, improves visibility into its $100 billion ARR target exiting 2026 and $1 trillion annual revenue target by 2030.
Ron Baron has $25 billion in SpaceX shares and a projection that Starlink alone hits $1 trillion in revenue, but the math holding that forecast together rests on a single unproven assumption about AI that deserves far more scrutiny than…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Ron Baron has spent his career telling investors to sit still, and his firm’s biggest illiquid conviction is now a public stock. Baron Capital holds roughly $25 billion in SpaceX shares, and Baron himself has staked a headline projection that SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) can turn Starlink alone into a trillion-dollar revenue line.
The market is not yet paying for that outcome. SPCX changed hands at $150.88 on September 16, 2026, up 5.15% on the session but still down 6.26% from its post-IPO reference, with a market capitalization near $1.16 trillion.
That gap between price and Baron’s claim frames the entire question for investors. Baron has moved past the consumer broadband story and now argues that agentic AI will consume connectivity and compute at a scale that turns an orbital constellation into general infrastructure, with every number he cites resting on that one assumption.
Original Thesis and What Actually Changed Baron framed his prior model cleanly. In his words, “SpaceX was planning on going from 10,000 satellites to 20,000 satellites”, and Baron said that against reported revenues of $18 billion last year, Starlink alone could reach $1 trillion in a decade.
Baron has since pivoted, and now says what will overwhelm everything are agentic agents, machine users that run continuously rather than in bursts.
A human broadband subscriber generates traffic in short sessions with long idle gaps. An AI agent booking travel, monitoring a factory line, or negotiating a contract does not sleep, does not close the browser, and multiplies per account rather than per person. Baron treats that as an observation. It is an assumption, because agentic workloads at commercial scale barely exist yet.
SpaceX’s Q2 numbers partially support the assumption. Connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year, while enterprise and government inside that line grew 108%, even as consumer ARPU slipped from $85 to $66.
Constellation Math Is the Load-Bearing Part Baron’s operational claim is that 100,000 satellites are required to serve the workload he expects, with each generation deorbited every five years and replaced with hardware ten times more capable.
That refresh cycle only closes if launch cadence, manufacturing throughput, and cost per kilogram all move together. Starship V3, which SpaceX says will cut cost to orbit by 99% or more, is the piece the model cannot survive without.
Capital intensity is already visible. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capex in Q2 alone, with $15.83 billion going to AI compute, and the company also placed a $25 billion inaugural investment-grade bond issuance to fund the buildout, according to Baron Capital. That kind of spending is why the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the AI buildout keep showing up in our free report on seven AI infrastructure names that aren’t chipmakers.
Data Centers in Orbit Deserve Harder Questions Baron’s cleanest sales line is a cost comparison. He said a terrestrial unit costs about $10 in capital and $2 a year in maintenance, while in space Baron claims it costs $2 one time.
Nothing in space actually runs on a one-time cost basis, however. GAO researchers reviewing space-based data centers in April 2026 flagged that cooling at scale is unproven because heat is not easily dispersed in the near-empty vacuum of space, and that on-orbit servicing is underdeveloped.
The unit in Baron’s comparison is also undefined. A rack, a server, a watt of compute, and a satellite bus are not interchangeable. A ratio quoted this cleanly should invite the question Baron did not answer: what wears out first, and who fixes it.
Bull and Bear Case for SPCX Stock The bull case is that Baron is right about the demand curve and directionally right about the constellation, and that SpaceX’s 12.0 million Starlink subscribers, $47.5 billion backlog, and 1.4 GW of AI compute already in place give it a running start no competitor can match this decade.
The bear case is that the revenue ceiling was never the binding constraint. Simultaneous execution across constellation expansion, orbital compute, and power generation is, and Baron is a holder talking his book with an unusually large incentive to sound certain about a ten-year forecast that is really a stack of compounding assumptions.
The near-term milestone worth watching is the Starship V3 test-flight cadence, because a launch-economics breakthrough is the single variable that decides whether the 100,000-satellite plan Baron sketched is arithmetic or fiction. Everything else in his thesis waits on that answer.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Starship's next flight could matter for far more than SpaceX's launch business. Summary
SpaceX plans to deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites during the flight
Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company, SpaceX (SPCX, Financials), is about to run a test that might validate several of its grandest dreams at once. Starship's 14th trip is set for Sept. 22 and this one is different.
For the first time, SpaceX will put its Starship spacecraft into orbit around Earth and deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
“Ultimately, those satellites could provide more than 100 times the bandwidth of SpaceX's existing constellation,” Musk says. But Wall Street is looking past Starlink.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently kept a $300 price estimate, saying the value didn't fully represent SpaceX's AI and orbital-computing possibilities.
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned has a $248 target and thinks reusable Starship launches are needed to enable orbiting data centers. That makes Sept. 22 more than just another rocket launch.
As SpaceX builds its future, an increasing amount of that future is built around businesses that need Starship to fly often and affordably, from next-gen Starlink satellites to computer infrastructure in orbit.
That model alone will not demonstrate the first orbital attempt. But it could reveal if one of the most important elements is coming closer to reality.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are trading higher Thursday, extending Wednesday’s rally as SpaceX follows through on a busy launch schedule ahead of next week’s high-profile Starship flight.
SpaceX stock is gaining positive traction. Why are SPCX shares climbing? SpaceX Successfully Launches USSF-259 MissionSpaceX successfully launched its USSF-259 mission Wednesday aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4E in California, with the booster landing on a droneship after liftoff. SpaceX posted video of the launch on X while it took place.
That successful liftoff is just the start of a busy stretch for the company. SpaceX has several more missions lined up in the coming days. A Starlink mission is set to launch on a Falcon 9 from the same California pad, with a window running from 9:47 p.m. ET Saturday, Sept. 19, through 1:47 a.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 20, again targeting a droneship landing.
The next major milestone comes Sept. 22, when Starship’s 14th flight is set to launch from Pad 2 at Starbase, with a window running from 8:15 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET. The mission will attempt Starship’s first orbital flight, deploy the company’s first Starlink V3 satellites, and test a range of hardware and heatshield upgrades following issues on the previous flight. The booster is expected to be expended rather than recovered on this attempt.
SpaceX also has a USSF-385 mission planned for Sept. 26, launching on a Falcon 9 from California with a window between 7:56 a.m. and 10:56 a.m. ET, once again targeting a droneship landing.
Wednesday’s Rally Built On Starship Hype and Broader Space SpendingBeyond this week’s launch calendar, Wednesday’s rally traced back to a mix of anticipation around the upcoming Starship flight and bigger-picture optimism about where SpaceX’s business could head. Cathie Wood put a number on that optimism, suggesting a single Starship mission might eventually be worth close to $1 billion, a figure that balloons into the trillions on an annual basis if Musk’s target of flying the vehicle 10,000 times a year by 2030 actually pans out.
Adding to that backdrop, Air Force Secretary Troy Meink publicly acknowledged for the first time that Space Force has weapons already positioned in orbit, part of a wider expansion into satellite networks and autonomous defense technology. Even though his comments weren’t specific to SpaceX, that kind of expanding government appetite for space-based capability tends to work in favor of companies positioned to build the infrastructure behind it.
SPCX Shares Are Moving HigherSPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 2.14% at $154.11 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro.
Read Next
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Last weekend, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a blog post calling for a slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development. He is worried this technology is progressing so fast that we might lose control over it, and he highlighted a series of recent cybersecurity events as evidence.
In May, Anthropic signed a massive deal to rent computing capacity from Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +5.15%), which could be worth tens of billions of dollars over the next few years. SpaceX stock is trading at a sky-high valuation because investors are pricing in future revenue from this deal (and other similar deals), but a slowdown in AI development could throw a spanner in the works.
Here's why investors might want to steer clear of SpaceX stock amid the uncertainty.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX thinks AI is a $26.5 trillion opportunity SpaceX operates three businesses:
Space transportation: SpaceX uses its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy reusable rockets to launch commercial payloads into orbit for businesses and government agencies. Satellite connectivity: SpaceX has launched over 10,200 of its Starlink satellites into orbit, which beam internet access to over 12 million paying customers here on Earth. AI: SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's xAI start-up earlier this year, which included state-of-the-art data centers like Colossus and Colossus II. The company uses this infrastructure to further develop the Grok models, but it also rents spare computing capacity to other businesses. SpaceX values its addressable market in the space transportation industry at $370 billion, whereas it believes the satellite connectivity industry presents a $1.6 trillion opportunity. AI, however, could be a $26.5 trillion market across infrastructure, consumer subscriptions, and enterprise applications. Therefore, it's no surprise Musk and his team are focusing on capturing as much of that opportunity as possible.
There is a global shortage of the specialized data center chips and components necessary to run AI training and inference workloads, so developers are paying through the nose to lock in any computing capacity they can. Anthropic is expected to spend $1.25 billion per month to rent computing capacity from SpaceX's data centers through May 2029, so the agreement could be worth a whopping $45 billion overall.
SpaceX signed a separate deal to lease approximately $920 million in capacity to Google parent Alphabet from October 2026 to June 2029. It will also lease roughly $150 million worth of capacity per month to start-up Reflection AI through 2029.
These deals are coming so thick and fast that SpaceX chief financial officer Bret Johnsen thinks the company's AI business could achieve a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026. Moreover, Musk thinks the AI segment could propel SpaceX to $1 trillion in annual revenue as soon as 2030.
However, most customers can end their infrastructure agreements by providing 90 days' notice to SpaceX. If it turns out Anthropic won't need as much capacity due to its plan to pace its AI development, then there is a risk it will exit its contract with SpaceX much earlier than anticipated.
SpaceX stock could experience a sharp decline from here SpaceX generated $7.8 billion in total revenue during the second quarter of 2026 (ended June 30), a whopping 92% increase from the year-ago period. Here's how it was broken down:
SpaceX Segment
Q2 Revenue
Revenue Growth (Year Over Year)
Space
$0.962 billion
29%
Connectivity
$4.291 billion
66%
AI
$2.561 billion
247%
Data source: SpaceX.
As you can see, the connectivity segment still accounts for most of SpaceX's revenue, but the AI business is quickly catching up thanks to the company's growing portfolio of infrastructure deals.
That brings me to SpaceX's valuation, because investors are paying a hefty premium for the growth in the AI business right now. Based on the company's overall trailing 12-month revenue of $23 billion, its stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 87.3, making it 14 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 index, which has a P/S ratio of 6.1.
Today's Change
(
5.15
%) $
7.39
Current Price
$
150.88
In other words, SpaceX appears to be heavily overvalued compared to a group of America's largest technology companies. Looking ahead, Wall Street believes SpaceX can grow its total revenue to $106.5 billion in 2027 (according to Yahoo Finance), placing its stock at a forward P/S ratio of 18.8. Therefore, it still seems expensive even if we look more than one year into the future.
But if large customers like Anthropic or Alphabet were to curb their AI spending to pace their development, SpaceX might not generate as much revenue next year as expected, so its stock could be even more expensive than it appears now.
SpaceX stock is already down 34% from its all-time high, but its valuation leaves significant room for further downside. As a result, investors might want to steer clear for the foreseeable future.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +5.15%), aka SpaceX, continues to make history. The rocket launch, satellite, and artificial intelligence (AI) company had an initial public offering (IPO) for the record books, raising $85.7 billion in its public debut, with its market cap surging past $2 trillion on its first day of trading.
So, when the company makes an assertion, investors should pay attention. When SpaceX reported its results earlier this month, the company made a stunning pronouncement. CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX was "expecting to reach $100 billion-plus" in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by December 2026. CEO Elon Musk went even further, saying, "To be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That's what we'd achieve if we basically did nothing."
Elon Musk is no stranger to bold claims, but a recent revelation by Johnsen (and a little number-crunching) suggests the company may be closer to achieving that goal than many investors might think.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The hits keep comingAt a technology conference late last week, Johnsen doubled down on the company's audacious forecast, revealing that SpaceX had secured another hosting deal worth more than $1.1 billion per month, bringing total new ARR to $13.3 billion.
Johnsen went on to say that the company benefits from its partnership with Nvidia, exclusive supplier of the graphics processing units (GPUs) that power its data centers. This gives SpaceX a keen advantage, allowing it to deploy compute capacity more quickly than rivals and helping it "take advantage of an unprecedented demand environment."
"We're on track, or we believe we're on track to hit $100 billion ARR," Johnsen said. He went on to say he has "even more conviction" that SpaceX can hit its goal.
Doing the math reveals that the company is closer to hitting that benchmark than you might think.
Paint by numbersThe past few months have been lucrative for xAI, the company's AI segment. Recent deals -- all reached in the past several months -- highlight the progress SpaceX has made so far:
Anthropic -- $1.25 billion per month, totaling $15 billion ARRAlphabet -- $920 million per month, totaling $11.04 billion ARRUndisclosed customer -- $1.1 billion per month, totaling $6.7 billionUndisclosed customer -- $1.11 billion per month, totaling $13.4 billion ARRThose four deals alone add up to roughly $46.1 billion in ARR. But that's just the beginning.
Today's Change
(
5.15
%) $
7.39
Current Price
$
150.88
While xAI is doing much of the heavy lifting, it isn't the only contributor. SpaceX announced its acquisition of popular AI coding company Cursor in mid-August, reportedly bringing ARR of roughly $4 billion to the table.
Let's not forget the Starlink satellite broadband and connectivity segment, which generated revenue of $4.3 billion in Q2, or ARR of $17.2 billion.
Then there's the SpaceX launch business, which had roughly $4 billion in ARR at the end of Q2.
The total existing ARR across all sources is about $71.3 billion, putting SpaceX within striking distance of meeting the company's ARR goal by December.
More to come?If SpaceX is indeed able to achieve its goal, it would be a notable accomplishment, but just the first of many.
Musk noted during the Q2 earnings call that SpaceX has revised its financial projections and now expects to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, down from 2031. SpaceX is planning to launch Starship flight 14 -- its super-heavy lift rocket -- next week, pending regulatory approval. The launch will carry 26 V3 Starlink satellites into orbit, if all goes well.
Each successive achievement will give way to the next, and missing any one of those goals could send the stock reeling. The past few months have clearly illustrated the potential for volatility. Moreover, SpaceX isn't yet profitable, largely due to the heavy investment required to get Starship -- and ultimately data centers -- into orbit.
The stock is currently selling for 96 times sales, so there's already a lot of growth baked into SpaceX stock. While there's plenty to like, investors should proceed with caution.
SpaceX (SPCX +5.15%) is getting ready to send Starship to orbit for the first time. The company is targeting the rocket's 14th test flight for as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 22 (pending regulatory sign-off as of this writing).
And the attempt won't be flying empty. The ship is set to deploy 26 of Starlink's next-generation V3 satellites, the first Starship cargo with revenue attached.
Both milestones matter, because with SpaceX's market value near $2 trillion, a lot rests on what this rocket is eventually supposed to do.
I don't think the flight will settle whether SpaceX is worth $2 trillion. But the outcome should say a lot about when one of the company's costliest promises starts showing up in the numbers.
Image source: Getty Images.
A test flight with paying cargoNotably, SpaceX won't attempt to catch the booster or the ship this time. CEO Elon Musk walked back an earlier plan to catch the ship, saying an explosion at this point would be too big a setback for the company, and the booster showed engine-relight trouble on the previous flight.
The cargo is the point. Each V3 satellite is designed to support 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, about 10 times what the current generation delivers. And SpaceX has framed the per-launch payoff: a full load of V3 satellites should add about 20 times the network capacity of a Falcon 9 launch of today's satellites.
Starlink needs the room, too. Subscribers ended June at 12.0 million (twice the year-ago count), and keeping up that pace will likely take much bigger capacity additions than the current satellites provide.
Starship has rehearsed the delivery. July's Flight 13 deployed 20 production V3 satellites and achieved all of its flight objectives, according to SpaceX. But like every Starship test so far, it stopped short of orbit, so those satellites never joined the working network.
Starship is why the launch business loses moneyStarship's costs land in SpaceX's space segment, home of the launch business. Segment revenue rose 29% from a year earlier to $962 million in the second quarter of 2026, helped by more large customer launches. The segment still posted a $542 million operating loss, however, wider than the $369 million loss a year earlier. The driver is research and development (R&D). Space R&D spending climbed from $693 million in the year-ago quarter to $930 million in the first quarter of 2026 and nearly $1.1 billion in the second.
SpaceX said in its August earnings release that it kept accelerating those investments because it believes Starship will "reduce the cost to orbit by 99% or more relative to the historical average" and unlock revenue potential across the whole business.
In the meantime, none of the tech company's profits run through Starship. SpaceX put 1,041 metric tons into orbit across 78 launches in this year's first half, the bulk of it Starlink hardware. And the connectivity segment those satellites feed generated $1.7 billion of income from operations in the second quarter, up 79% year over year.
What would the outcome change?Mostly, the timing. An orbital Starship could give SpaceX a much bigger delivery vehicle for its most profitable business, and each later mission could add capacity the network can sell. Success could also start turning that cost claim into something investors can track, flight by flight.
A failure, meanwhile, probably wouldn't change much about today's business. Starlink's subscribers are served by satellites Falcon 9 already delivers, and the launch schedule doesn't depend on Starship. What a lost ship would cost is time -- more quarters of climbing research spending before the payoff, and a longer wait for the V3 capacity step-up.
Today's Change
(
5.15
%) $
7.39
Current Price
$
150.88
The price already assumes the answerThe problem for anyone thinking about buying ahead of the launch is the stock's valuation. At about $152 as of this writing, SpaceX is valued near $2 trillion -- more than 60 times sales even if you annualize the second quarter's $7.8 billion of revenue. A price like that, for a company that lost $541 million last quarter, only makes sense if the expensive projects work -- and Starship is one of the costliest of them.
Of course, a clean flight is a big milestone, and it could give the stock a lift. But orbit alone doesn't make shares cheap, and a failure would stretch a timeline the price already leans on.
Would I buy the growth stock ahead of Flight 14? No. I would avoid buying shares here, whichever way the launch goes.
VC firm Valor Equity Partners, founded by Antonio Gracias, a long-time Elon Musk backer and current SpaceX board member, has opted to simply give away a chunk of its SpaceX stock to its limited partner investors, according to an SEC filing spotted by Bloomberg.
Valor made a killing on SpaceX after investing in it over decades, with entities controlled by Gracias owning more than 500 million shares at the time of the IPO. This was second only to Musk (who owned over 6 billion shares at the time). But instead of cashing out and issuing returns to LPs, Valor handed over 8.5% of its holdings to them, worth about $8.5 billion, Bloomberg estimates. Valor will still own more than 460 million shares after the giveaway, the SEC disclosure form says.
Transferring ownership of the shares could give those Valor limited partners a tax advantage. More importantly, it avoids dumping a giant tranche of shares into the open market. Such a dump could cause a glut of available shares and a corresponding dip in price. SpaceX is already down about 10% since its blockbuster IPO day.
SpaceX's CEO just made a sweeping promise about Starlink's next generation that would dwarf everything the constellation delivers today, but the gap between a capacity claim and actual revenue is where fortunes get made or lost.
Elon Musk used a post on X to argue that the next generation of Starlink satellites now beginning deployment will eventually push the constellation’s total bandwidth to more than 100 times what the roughly 11,000 satellites currently in orbit deliver today. That is a capability claim from the company’s chief executive, not audited performance data, and investors in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) should treat it that way. Still, it is the kind of claim that reframes how you think about the biggest revenue engine inside the business.
SPCX was trading over $150 in the intraday, up nearly 6% on the session and 8.5% over the past month, against a market cap of roughly $2 trillion. Sentiment has cooled recently, with a composite reading of 35.75 flagged as bearish with medium confidence, driven mostly by a soft social score of 22 even as news sentiment sits closer to neutral at 49.49.
Why the Bandwidth Math Matters Starlink lives inside SpaceX’s Connectivity segment, which produced $4.29 billion in Q2 revenue, up 66% year over year. On the Q2 earnings release filed August 4, SpaceX disclosed that its roughly 9,600 broadband satellites currently produce about 800 terabits per second of downlink capacity, serving 12.0 million subscribers across 167 markets. That is the base rate any bandwidth multiplier is applied against.
On the earnings call, Musk framed the V3 architecture in similar terms, calling each satellite “about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite” and saying SpaceX plans to launch “about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites,” which he said would produce “a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.” His revenue framing was direct: “Even if our monetization per bit drops by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.”
Turning Capacity Into Cash Bandwidth is a supply metric. Turning it into cash requires demand, ground infrastructure, spectrum, and regulatory clearance in each market. Starlink’s average revenue per user has already declined from $85 to $66 as the subscriber base broadened, and management said further geographic expansion could pull blended ARPU lower even as subscribers grow.
The near-term V3 timeline is also more measured than the headline claim suggests. Management said a critical mass of roughly 1,000 V3 satellites is likely needed before customers see substantially better service, expected around the second quarter of next year. Musk targeted Starship flight 14 as the first mission to carry V3 satellites into operational orbit, a target that remains subject to regulatory approval and flight test outcomes.
What Investors Should Watch The bandwidth-to-revenue conversion will show up in a handful of specific line items:
Enterprise and Government revenue, which grew 108% year over year to $1.806 billion. Gwynne Shotwell said this bucket could “at least [be] comparable to but likely exceed our consumer business.” Aviation penetration, currently “less than 10% penetrated,” with new deals covering American Airlines, Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia and Aer Lingus. Starlink Mobile, which is expected to integrate 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum after FCC approval, with commercial service targeted for the end of next year. ARPU trend, and whether higher-tier plans emerge as V3 capacity comes online. Backlog, last reported at $47.5 billion, and progress toward management’s $100 billion annualized revenue run rate target for December. Musk’s 100x claim is a statement about the ceiling. The stock price will track how much of that ceiling gets sold through, quarter by quarter.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways Starship has unprecedented scale and power.Reusability is the holy grail of rocketry.Starship's upcoming test marks a pivotal milestone for SpaceX. Starship: The Most Ambitious Spacecraft Ever BuiltSpaceX’s ((SPCX - Free Report) ) Starship is by far the most ambitious spacecraft ever conceived. Starship is the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful rocket built in history. For context, Starship’s thrust is more than double the 7.6 million pounds of thrust produced by NASA’s now-retired Saturn V. The latest Starship iterations allow a payload capacity of 200 metric tons (Saturn V had a payload capacity of 240 metric tons). However, Starship is unique beyond its size and power. If successful, Starship will be the first full and rapid reusable rocket ship.
SpaceX’s current operational rockets, the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, are partially reusable, with some stages being expendable. However, unlike traditional rockets, Starship is designed to be caught, refurbished, and flown again rapidly. In fact, since SpaceX’s humble beginnings in 2002, full reusability has been its long-term goal, and Elon Musk considers it the “holy grail of rocketry.” Rapid reusability is the tipping point for space travel in terms of practicality. For context, the partially reusable Falcon 9 costs SpaceX ~$20 million per flight. Meanwhile, the fully reusable Starship is expected to cost between $2 and $5 million and carry a much larger payload to orbit.
How Close is Starship Success?During his recent virtual appearance at the “All-In Summit,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk updated listeners on Starship’s progress, saying:
“We’ve got flight 14 coming up, of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship. So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship. Later this year, but more likely early next year, SpaceX will re-fly both the ship and the booster.”
SpaceX is aiming for September 22nd for its Starship Flight 14, which will mark the vehicle’s first attempt to reach full orbit.
Cathie Wood’s Starship PredictionArk Invest’s Cathie Wood is tuned into the Elon Musk ecosystem more than most investors. In 2014, Wood began accumulating Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ) shares, making bold and seemingly unrealistic predictions. Since then, Tesla shares have soared 22-fold. Meanwhile, Wood also owned SpaceX pre-IPO through the ARK Venture Fund. Although the ARK Venture Fund got into SPCX shares pre-IPO, Wood remains extremely bullish. Recently, she tweeted her boldest prediction yet:
“Each Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue. Elon is aiming for 10,000 flights per year, or $10 trillion in Starship revenues, by 2030. If SpaceX achieves this goal, its $1.75 trillion IPO will be considered, in hindsight, a deep value opportunity.”
Musk replied to the thread saying, “It’s not impossible.”
While Wood’s projections seem crazy, even if an investor divided her projection by 10, the numbers would still be astounding and would warrant a massive revaluation. Not to mention, SpaceX is growing in multiple business verticals and has become as much of an AI company as it is a space company.
Bottom Line
While bold projections like Cathie Wood’s multi-trillion-dollar revenue targets may sound astronomical, even a fraction of that scale underscores the paradigm shift SpaceX is engineering. By cracking the code on rapid, full reusability, Starship is rewriting the economics of space exploration.
Starlink, the satellite internet service of SpaceX (SPCX +4.72%), ended June with 12.0 million subscribers -- twice the count of a year earlier, and up 1.7 million in the second quarter alone.
Growth like that typically slows as the base gets bigger. Starlink's has been speeding up.
Here's my prediction: it doubles again. I think Starlink reaches 24 million subscribers by the end of 2027. That looks like a stretch for a service already this big. After all, the next 12 million subscribers need to come on top of everyone who has already signed up. But the company's own numbers do most of the work, and the required pace is near what Starlink just delivered.
Image source: Getty Images.
What would doubling again take?Going from 12.0 million subscribers to 24 million by the end of 2027 means gaining 12 million over six quarters, or about 2 million a quarter. Starlink added 1.7 million during the second quarter. The subscriber count was at 6.0 million in June 2025, reached 10.3 million by the end of March, and hit 12.0 million three months later. That works out to average additions of 1.5 million a quarter over the last year, with the latest quarter running ahead of the average.
In other words, the prediction asks Starlink to do modestly better than it just did, and to maintain that pace through the end of next year.
Price might be one reason to think it can. Starlink's average revenue per user was $66 a month in the second quarter (and for the first half as a whole), down from $85 a year earlier. Whatever mix of plans and markets lies behind that decline, the service now brings in meaningfully less per subscriber than it did a year ago.
And subscriber growth accelerated alongside the lower average.
More capacity is on the wayA satellite internet service can only sell the bandwidth its constellation can provide, so capacity is the practical limit on subscriber growth.
The tech company is spending against exactly that. The company reported research and development spending in its connectivity segment rose partly to fund its next-generation V3 satellites, which it expects to meaningfully increase how much broadband its network can deliver.
And the rollout isn't waiting on anyone else's rockets. SpaceX flew 78 launches in the first half of 2026 and sent just over 1,000 metric tons into orbit, most of that mass Starlink satellites bound for the constellation.
What would 24 million be worth?The connectivity segment, home to Starlink, is already SpaceX's profit engine. Second-quarter connectivity revenue rose 66% year over year to $4.3 billion, and the segment's income from operations rose 79% to $1.7 billion. That operating profit amounted to just under 39% of the segment's revenue, up from about 36% both a year earlier and in the first quarter.
So the segment earns more money on more subscribers, even though Starlink takes in less per subscriber than it did a year ago.
At 24 million subscribers and the current $66 monthly average, subscription revenue alone would run to about $19 billion a year, before any hardware sales or enterprise contracts. That is more than the whole segment produces today at its second-quarter pace.
Notably, the subscriber count excludes a growing piece of the segment entirely. Enterprise and government revenue (billed under negotiated contracts, so it sits outside the subscriber count) more than doubled year over year to $1.8 billion in the second quarter. My 24 million call captures none of that.
Today's Change
(
4.72
%) $
6.78
Current Price
$
150.27
Will Starlink make it all the way to 24 million before 2027 ends? I think it will. Two million a quarter asks a little more of the service than the 1.7 million it just delivered, not a lot more, and the satellites required to serve those subscribers are already being funded.
Of course, additions might slow as Starlink works through its easiest markets. A further step down in pricing would also make each new subscriber worth less. But the second quarter delivered the opposite on both counts -- faster additions at a stable average.
Whether to buy the growth stock is another question.
At about $148 as of this writing, SpaceX has a market value near $2 trillion -- a valuation that already appears to assume years of growth like this. So, while I expect the subscriber milestone to arrive, I'd hold off on buying shares here.
Cathie Wood calls SpaceX a deep value play at a price-to-sales ratio of 85, while Scott Galloway sees the opposite staring at the same numbers. The case for each hinges on a single question neither side can fully answer yet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) was trading over $150 intraday, with a reported market capitalization over $2 trillion. Cathie Wood, chief investment officer at ARK Invest, has publicly argued that SPCX will look like a deep value opportunity in hindsight if Starship delivers on Elon Musk’s launch cadence and payload targets. Some analysts are divided on this, but it’s worth checking the math.
Wood’s Thesis in Plain Language Wood’s argument compounds two variables: how many Starship flights per year SpaceX can achieve, and how much revenue each flight can support once Starship is fully and rapidly reusable. Musk told analysts on the August 4, 2026 call that “we expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly and probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day and possibly more,” with aspirations to deliver “well over a million tons to orbit per year and probably ultimately 10 million tons per year.” Wood extrapolates from those launch economics to an annual revenue potential large enough to make today’s price look cheap.
It’s worth pointing out that this extrapolation belongs to Wood alone. SpaceX management’s own stated marker is more restrained: internal projections for $1 trillion in revenue moved from 2031 to 2030, with “a non-zero chance” of reaching it in 2029. Anything larger circulating under Wood’s name should be read as her modeling of a physically possible outcome, not guidance SpaceX stands behind.
Multiples Wood Is Calling Cheap SPCX currently carries a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 85, an EV/EBITDA of 512, and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 204. Price-to-sales measures what investors pay for each dollar of revenue; a reading in the 80s is what markets historically reserve for early-stage software with runway to expand margins. EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value against pretax operating cash generation, and a reading above 500 says the current business barely registers against what the market is pricing in.
Wood’s framing accepts those multiples as trivially small versus what Starship-scale launch revenue could underwrite. It is a bet on the numerator eventually growing into the denominator.
Why Growth Bulls Have Ammunition Q2 2026 revenue grew 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, beating consensus by 14.59%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million, and the connectivity segment produced $4.29 billion in revenue. Management said it expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December. The 220.68 analyst target price against a 50-day moving average of 134.8 reflects a Street tilted bullish, with 22 buy and 6 strong buy ratings. Full details of the quarter are in the 8-K filing.
Two Prominent Investors, Opposite Verdicts Scott Galloway has publicly argued SpaceX is drastically overvalued, a bear case 24/7 Wall St. covered previously. Wood and Galloway are staring at the same $23.04 billion trailing revenue base, the same negative $1.10 diluted EPS, and the same triple-digit sales multiple, and arriving at opposite conclusions. The disagreement centers on how much of Starship’s future the reader should already treat as delivered.
What Would Validate the Deep Value Call Starship Flight 14 is tentatively scheduled for the end of the month pending regulatory approval, and CFO Bret framed it as the first flight to carry version 3 Starlink satellites to operational orbit, a shift from demonstration to production cadence. A successful tower catch of the ship, sustained flight cadence, and Starlink ARPU stabilizing above the $66 level would give Wood’s math oxygen. Continued $18.37 billion quarterly capex against triple-digit multiples would give Galloway his. Investors can track official milestones on the SpaceX investor relations site.
Wood’s deep value framing is defensible only under her own launch-economics extrapolation, which is not SpaceX guidance. At an EV/EBITDA above 500, the market is already pricing a version of Starship that works. If Flight 14 and the flights behind it confirm rapid reusability at cadence, Wood will look prescient. If cadence slips while capex compounds, the multiple will do the correcting.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Shares of SpaceX soared over 5% Wednesday on news Elon Musk’s company has a new launch date for Starship — a huge, fully-reusable rocket that’s central to the firm’s business plans.
The 14th test for the model was scheduled for next Tuesday morning. If all goes according to plan, the Starship will complete six orbits on a 10-hour mission and deploy Starlink V3 satellites. The voyage would mark the first time the upper stage of the rocket enters a stable Earth orbit.
The SpaceX Starship has a new launch date of Sept. 22. REUTERS Investors welcomed the launch date, sending the stock to $150.67 a share, above the firm’s $135 IPO price from its record-breaking market debut in June. The stock reached highs above $200 a share shortly after the debut, but tumbled over the following weeks.
The Starship is the world’s largest rocket, measuring over 400 feet tall and able to carry 100 metric tons.
It’s a critical part of SpaceX’s plans, since it was built to deploy more advanced Starlink satellites – the basis of Musk’s satellite business and the real money-maker across his endeavors. The broadband business has more than 12 million subscribers.
The Starship was also built to help grow the company’s AI business. SpaceX owns xAI, which has developed and released the Grok AI system of chatbots, but the company eventually plans to form a constellation of computers in orbit to power more advanced AI systems — though some critics call the idea far-fetched.
Musk’s company has argued that using the sun to power its computers will save on costs compared to other tech firms using data centers on Earth, and that Starship – being fully reusable – will also keep costs down.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX had a record-breaking IPO in June. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein The rocket’s 13th launch test in July was a success. The upper stage of the vehicle deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, re-lit a rocket engine in space and then splashed down in the Indian Ocean, while the booster stage landed offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.
SpaceX, like many other tech firms, has been on a mission to calm investors who are concerned about an “AI bubble” in the market, similar to the “dot-com bubble” of the early 2000s.
In early August, SpaceX’s stock fell after it revealed a massive jump in AI spending, spooking investors who feared the company might be overspending on new technology that could ultimately fail to pay off. Traders feared the company’s jaw-dropping $2 trillion valuation could be overvalued.
The Pentagon just confirmed on-orbit space weapons, and SpaceX sits at the center of a multibillion-dollar architecture that transforms that announcement into hard contracts. Here is what the move means for the stock and the sector names getting pulled along…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are up 5.1% in mid-morning trading Wednesday, changing hands at $151 after opening near $143. The move pushes the stock back above the $150 level it first hit when trading began June 12 following its IPO priced at $135.
Pentagon Confirmation of On-Orbit Weapons Lights the Fuse The catalyst is fresh policy news. U.S. defense officials yesterday confirmed on-orbit space-control weapons and highlighted progress on the Golden Dome interceptor program, tied to multibillion-dollar SpaceX contracts awarded earlier this year. That points investors straight at Starshield, SpaceX’s national security satellite business, which already sits on more than $6 billion in multi-year Space Force contracts for LEO-based communications and sensing.
The Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget request carries a $17.9 billion Golden Dome line item covering advanced space-based and terrestrial sensors, command and control, kinetic interceptors, and next-generation non-kinetic programs. SpaceX is the only operator with a proliferated LEO constellation at production scale, and Starshield is the vehicle through which most of that architecture gets built. Yesterday’s confirmation moves that spend from theoretical to programmatic.
Reclaiming the IPO Open Price, Still Well Off the Highs Wednesday’s rally caps a slow grind higher. SPCX is up 5.5% since September began and 44% above the lows it hit in the weeks following the IPO. The one-month return sits at about 8%. Even so, the stock trades 33% below its intraday high of $226 on June 16, and it has poked above $150 several times this month before giving back the gains. Holding the level into the close would be the first clean technical read since the debut.
The fundamental backdrop supports the reset. The August 4 8-K showed Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, beating the $6.82 billion consensus by 15%, and EPS of -$0.09 versus the -$0.29 estimate. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0 million, connectivity revenue rose 66% year over year, and enterprise and government revenue climbed 108% on airline partnerships and Starshield contracts. That filing is available here.
Defense Primes and Space Peers Get Pulled Along Space-based weapons validation reads as a rising tide for the sector. Traditional missile-defense primes Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman all sit inside the Golden Dome supply chain for interceptors, sensors, and integration. Pure-play space names like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile tend to move with SpaceX headlines given the read-through on launch cadence and LEO service demand. On the funding side, SpaceX carries a $47.50 billion backlog and $93.52 billion in cash, alongside $18.37 billion in quarterly capex, $15.83 billion of which went into AI compute. Market cap sits at roughly $1.16 trillion.
Sentiment has also been buoyed by adjacent coverage. Barron’s flagged that SpaceX shares are rising ahead of a key Starship test flight, and Morgan Stanley on Monday pointed clients toward a discounted proxy for SpaceX exposure. Two narratives, one direction of travel.
What to Watch Into the Close The tell is whether SPCX can close above $151 and turn the IPO open price into support rather than a ceiling. The next Starship V3 test flight, any Pentagon follow-on Starshield task orders, and updates on the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition expected to close in Q3 are the near-term catalysts. Keep an eye on the stock through the afternoon as momentum traders test the $150 line.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
While there have been multiple opportunities since the initial public offering (IPO) to make an investment in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock that would have proven, by press time, profitable, buying exactly three months ago would have led to substantial losses.
Specifically, SPCX share price at press time in the September 16 pre-market stands at $144.83, while the equity recorded its highest closing price and its all-time high (ATH) on June 16.
SpaceX stock price performance in the last three months. Source: Google A $10,000 investment made near the closing bell three months ago would have acquired SpaceX stock at $201.80, meaning it would have fallen 28.23% to $7,176.91 for a $2,823.09 loss.
Buying at the intraday and all-time high would have proven even more damaging for one’s portfolio. Indeed, SPCX peaked at $225.64, meaning that a $10,000 investment made at the price would have dropped by 35.81% to $6,418.63: a $3,581.37 loss.
When will $10,000 invested in SpaceX three months ago turn profitable? Additionally, with Wall Street on average expecting SpaceX shares to climb to $222.94 within the next 12 months, traders who bought the equity near its highs appear to have only a slim chance of recovering their losses within the foreseeable future.
Wall Street SpaceX stock price target for the next 12 months. Source: TipRanks Meanwhile, looking ahead offers relatively little clarity regarding when and if a $10,000 SPCX stock investment made three months ago might turn profitable.
The first potential catalyst is expected already next week with the Starship Flight 14, which could, should it prove a success, bolster the bullish argument for the company. On the flip side, the SpaceX rocket launch could also fail, potentially strengthening selling pressure.
Simultaneously, it is possible the impact of the flight proves only marginal, considering much of the company’s positioning – including the figures presented in the S-1 filing – emphasizes its artificial intelligence (AI) business.
Under the circumstances and given the recent calls to slow down developments amidst claims that AI could trigger a mass extinction even for humanity, SpaceX investors could begin ignoring the rocket business and turn bearish on the company’s other aspects.
SpaceX stock bear case Perhaps the most bearish outlook might have been published before the SPCX IPO, which assumed that, should the company achieve a ‘minimum viable product’ and little in terms of breakthroughs such as successful orbital data centers, it might see an equity drop to roughly $70.
Notably, Morningstar – the company behind the analysis – determined that such an outcome was the most plausible, with both the bearish scenario – which would see a price collapse to $40 – and the bullish scenario – with a price target near $160 – deemed highly unlikely.
SpaceX stock bull case On the flip side, SpaceX stock suffers from no shortage of committed bulls. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang famously likened investing in the SPCX IPO to buying Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta (NASDAQ: META), or Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) early.
Lastly, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale estimated that Elon Musk’s newer public company could skyrocket to $800 – and a $10 trillion market capitalization – by June 2027, giving at least hope to traders who made a $10,000 investment in the firm as it was trading close to its ATH.
Buy SpaceX (SPCX). The article points to accelerating revenue (92% YoY in Q2) plus large AI contracts (e.g., $1B/month deal, Anthropic $1.25B/month, Google $950M). That combination should drive operating leverage as profits catch up, and multiple analysts still see upside toward ~$221 and even >$500 over five years. Starship progress (Sept 22) is a near-term catalyst that can reinforce the growth narrative.
Key Risk: AI capex keeps rising faster than revenue, so margins don’t improve and the stock rerates lower despite top-line growth.
SPCX volatility fade
Sell short-dated downside in SPCX via a put spread (e.g., buy 1-month 130 put, sell 1-month 110 put). The “AI safety jitters” are the stated reason for the current drop, but the core fundamentals in the article are long-duration (multi-year AI revenue deals, Starship milestones, eventual capex peak). This setup targets a rebound/mean reversion after the headline-driven selloff.
Key Risk: A real regulatory or safety event triggers a sustained earnings-risk repricing (not just jitters), pushing SPCX materially below the spread strikes.
SpaceX stock is falling this week as jitters about the artificial intelligence safety continues. SPCX dropped to $143.50 on Tuesday, a few points below this month’s high of $154. This article explains some of the top reasons why the stock has more room for growth in the next five years.
The main catalyst that will drive SpaceX shares in the next five years is its strong revenue growth, which will translate to profits eventually. Its last earnings report showed that its revenue jumped by 92% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion, with the three segments reporting strong growth.
SpaceX has more room for growth in the coming years, especially because of its artificial intelligence (AI) business. Last week, the company announced that it reached a deal with a company that will pay $1 billion a month starting later this year.
The company has inked more deals in the future. For example, it has inked a $1.25 billion a month deal with Anthropic, a $950 million deal with Google, and a $150 million one with Reflection AI.
Analysts now expect that its growth will supercharge in the coming years. Yahoo Finance data estimates that the company will make $44.76 billion this year, much higher than the $18 billion it made last year. It is expected to make $109 billion next year.
These numbers largely confirm what Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predicted about its company. Goldman Sachs believes that the revenue will jump to over $474 billion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley predicts that it will surge to between $3.4 trillion and $3.5 trillion by 2040. Goldman and Morgan Stanley were the lead banks in its IPO.
Top analysts are highly bullish on the company, which might boost its shares in the long term. William Blair reiterated its outperform rating, while Pivotal Research initiated the company with a buy rating and a price target of $220.
Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan has an outperform rating and a price target of $280, while Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, and Wolfe Research reiterated their outperform ratings.
The average estimate among analysts is that its stock will jump to $221, much higher than the current $143. Eventually, there is a room for the stock to jump to over $500 in the next five years.
SpaceX stock will also benefit from the upcoming Starship mega-rocket launch that will happen on September 22. The company plans to deploy the first batch of the third-generation Starlinks into its network. Initially, it plans to launch 26 V3 satellites into orbit in the test flight.
The upcoming launch will be the second one since the company became a publicly-traded company in June. If successful, it will represent the first major milestone for the company as it seeks to retire its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets.
A key risk for SpaceX is that its capital expenditure continues rising. Its last results showed that its capex jumped to $18.36 billion in the second quarter, much higher than the $10 billion it spent in the second quarter of last year. Most of the capex came from its AI business, which jumped to $15 billion.
The capex growth will likely continue in the coming years as it continues to roll out its data centers and build its Terafabs plant. Fortunately, the company has over $100 billion in cash. This spending phase will eventually be over, making the company highly profitable in the coming years.
Separately, history shows that stocks tend to drop after its IPO and then rebound over time. We saw that with companies like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Netflix.
When people picture Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +5.26%), the first things that likely come to their minds are its reusable Falcon rockets. What investors may not fully grasp is that SpaceX is building a three-headed machine across launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) computing.
Currently, SpaceX boasts a market capitalization of just under $2 trillion. The question I am wondering is whether the AI pillar can stretch that value toward $3 trillion without the broader story falling apart.
The short answer to that question is yes, it's possible. But it's not guaranteed. SpaceX's path to a $3 trillion market cap would have to run through cash flow that thus far has come from just one side of the business, but that now has a second engine quietly warming up.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX today: What is paying the bills, and what is still burning cash? The space business was SpaceX's original foundation. This segment specializes in launching rockets -- the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy -- that carry NASA crews and cargo, as well as private company payloads.
It's also pouring money into the development of its larger Starship launch vehicle. Through the first six months of the year, the space business generated $1.6 billion in revenue from 78 launches. This business is still losing money at the operating line, largely because Starship development is eating billions of dollars in research and development costs.
While Falcon flights are a mature, high-cadence product, most of the flights are carrying SpaceX's own payloads -- hauling more Starlink satellites into orbit -- rather than serving external customers.
Starlink is the only SpaceX segment that is consistently profitable at scale. Through June 30, it generated $7.5 billion in revenue, or roughly 60% of the company's total. This segment also produced $2.8 billion in operating income and $4.7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
As of the end of the second quarter, Starlink had 12 million subscribers -- twice as many as a year prior. While consumer broadband matters, Starlink is making a conscious effort to push into enterprise plans across the aviation, maritime, and government sectors.
Then there is AI. In 2025, this was the smallest of the company's three businesses, with about $3.2 billion in revenue, and had a sizable operating loss due to hefty capital expenditures. By the second quarter of 2026, the AI business had jumped to $3.4 billion in sales and flipped to positive adjusted EBITDA. This shift occurred because SpaceX stopped treating its giant compute cluster, known as Colossus, as a private lab for Grok and began renting out some of its cloud capacity.
Today's Change
(
5.26
%) $
7.55
Current Price
$
151.04
What Starlink and Starship could look like in the long run Starlink's goal is no longer just to provide home internet connectivity in rural and remote areas. Rather, Starlink is becoming a global connectivity utility as subscriber counts continue to grow and enterprise and government contracts scale up. Starlink's next-generation V3 satellites are designed to put more capacity in orbit per launch, creating favorable economics because the network is already operating and the incremental cost of adding more customers is relatively low.
Meanwhile, with Starship, SpaceX is trying to once again meaningfully cut the cost of launching mass into orbit.
Based on its payload capacity, one Starship flight could theoretically deploy a large constellation of V3 satellites at the same time. In addition, Starship is the vehicle SpaceX wants to use to deploy a constellation of data center satellites. It's important for investors to realize that these are test programs right now. Until Starship rockets can be launched at a rapid cadence and reused repeatedly on a routine commercial basis, this entire opportunity remains an expensive science project.
How AI can change SpaceX's profitability and valuation SpaceX's AI business is mostly infrastructure. The company built its Colossus supercomputer to train its own models, but then discovered it could sell the spare capacity. These are the material deals it has inked so far:
Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion a month for capacity from Colossus 1. Google Cloud committed to $920 million a month starting this fall for access to a cluster of Nvidia GPUs. Reflection AI signed an agreement for $150 million a month in a contract that is worth up to $6.3 billion over its total life to lease access to Nvidia GB300 chips at the Colossus 2 data center. A newer hosting agreement from an unnamed customer is slated to bring in about $1.11 billion a month beginning in December. During SpaceX's second-quarter earnings call, the company disclosed a six-month AI cloud deal valued at $6.7 billion. While the customer name was not named, William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma has said his firm thinks that the deal was with the Department of Defense. CFO Bret Johnsen has said that SpaceX is on track to reach a $100 billion annual run rate by the end of this year. Elon Musk expressed even more optimism, saying in August that its AI revenue could pass the rest of the company's sales as early as this month.
This is the pivot to be on the lookout for. For years, Starlink's earnings have funded SpaceX's other ambitions. But if its AI compute leasing business continues to scale at incremental margins, the big picture stops looking like one profitable segment supporting two expensive ones. While Starlink remains a steady cash engine, AI could become a second, potentially larger one. Starship, if it works, can make both of those businesses cheaper to scale -- creating a lucrative virtuous cycle for the SpaceX ecosystem.
SpaceX currently has a market cap of around $2 trillion. This means a move to $3 trillion would require a 50% step-up. If the company exits this year with an annual run rate of $100 billion and grows this base into the mid-hundreds of billions as more GPU clusters come online and Starship proves it can reduce payload costs, a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of between 15 and 20 on a $150 billion (or more) business gets you into the $3 trillion zone at the high end. Once earnings start showing up more materially, say $60 billion to $80 billion in net income, a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple in the 35 to 40 range would land the market cap in the same neighborhood.
Admittedly, these are premium multiples. But they are not unreasonable for a company that is compounding infrastructure and building a one-of-a-kind launch system. The realistic case is not that the AI cloud business will magically make SpaceX's problems disappear. It is that demand for AI compute could help turn SpaceX from a profitable satellite company subsidizing rockets into a more diversified cash-flow machine that owns the cheapest path to orbit. That is how a $2 trillion name starts looking like a $3 trillion one without asking investors to buy into hopes or an unrealistic hype narrative.
Key Takeaways SPCX has about $8.05 billion in announced awards across sensing, communications and launch.Golden Dome gives SpaceX a path into space-based interceptors, with a 2028 demo target.Starshield won more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts in second-quarter 2026. The U.S. Space Force’s confirmation that operational weapons have been deployed in space marks a significant step in the evolution of the nation’s defense strategy and underscores the growing importance of space as a key military domain. While technical details surrounding these systems remain classified, officials and industry experts suggest that the capabilities are aimed at supporting both offensive and defensive “space superiority” missions.
The development brings the spotlight on defense contractors and commercial space companies, such as Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX, as the United States continues to expand investments in next-generation space-based defense infrastructure. With national security priorities increasingly extending beyond terrestrial and aerial domains, companies with exposure to satellite systems, launch services, advanced communications and space defense technologies could remain in focus.
SPCX Builds the Infrastructure Around Space WarfareSpaceX's role in defense has expanded well beyond launching military satellites. In May, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $4.16 billion contract for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) program. The project is designed to create a space-based sensing layer capable of tracking and targeting airborne threats globally, with an initial constellation expected to be fielded by 2028.
SpaceX added another $1.6 billion in July when the Space Force awarded the company task orders for 18 Falcon 9 launches supporting its Space-Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio. These missions are expected to be completed by the end of 2027. The company recently received a $2.29 billion award to develop the Space Data Network Backbone. The network is intended to provide a resilient, high-speed communications layer that can transfer information between military sensors, command systems and other assets.
Taken together, these three publicly announced awards represent about $8.05 billion of potential contract value across sensing, communications and launch. Modern missile-defense and space-control architectures require more than weapons. They need satellites that can identify threats, networks capable of moving targeting information rapidly and reliable launch systems that can deploy and replenish orbital assets – areas in which SpaceX operates.
Golden Dome Adds Direct Interceptor OpportunitySpaceX could eventually move even closer to the weapons layer itself. The Space Force has issued 20 agreements to 12 companies for the development of space-based interceptors under the Golden Dome missile-defense architecture. The agreements have a potential combined value of up to $3.2 billion. SpaceX is among the companies selected, alongside Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) , among others.
The Space-Based Interceptor program is targeting a proliferated low-Earth-orbit constellation capable of engaging missile threats during boost, midcourse and glide phases. An initial capability is targeted for demonstration within the Golden Dome architecture by 2028.
For SpaceX, participation could provide another avenue to monetize its vertically integrated space ecosystem. Falcon 9 and eventually Starship can provide launch capacity, while Starshield satellites, optical links and secure communications infrastructure could support other layers of the military architecture.
Starshield Could Become a Bigger SPCX Growth PillarIn second-quarter 2026, more than $6 billion in U.S. government contracts were awarded to Starshield. SpaceX lists Earth observation, secure communications and hosted payloads among the platform's core capabilities.
That gives SPCX an important advantage. Instead of developing an entirely separate defense platform from scratch, the company can reuse satellite production, launch infrastructure, networking technologies and software developed across its commercial businesses. A larger government pipeline could also diversify SpaceX away from its dependence on Starlink consumer subscriptions and rapidly expanding AI infrastructure.
End NoteThe U.S. military's shift toward orbital sensing, communications, tracking and weapons creates a potentially large addressable market. SpaceX's launch dominance, Starshield platform and vertical integration leave it well-positioned to compete for that spending.
However, the technical challenge of developing scalable space-based interceptors remains considerable. The expanding defense opportunity adds another powerful long-term growth engine, but investors may want to see government awards translate into sustained revenues and earnings before assigning substantially more value to the space-weapons theme.
While high operating costs and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears poised to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. Those who already own the stock can hold onto it while new investors may wait for a better entry point.
SpaceX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SpaceX stock is surging on a firm date for Starship's most ambitious test yet, but whether the milestone justifies the valuation depends on a single high-stakes question the vehicle has never answered.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is climbing Wednesday morning on news of a firm launch date for Starship’s next test flight. Barron’s reported the company plans to fly Starship again on September 22, and the mission is set up as the first attempt to place the vehicle’s upper stage into stable Earth orbit.
The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 0.8% at $43.21. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.3% at $759.99. The space fund and the broad market are both barely higher, so SpaceX is moving on its own news rather than on a sector bid.
SpaceX stock is at $151.12, up 5%, though it remains down 7% since it began trading in June. Checking in on the peers, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is at $63.75, up 0.3%. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is at $59.27, up 0.85%.
Launch Date Fuels the Rally Barron’s reported that SpaceX plans to test Starship again on September 22, and this would be the first flight in which Starship’s upper stage reaches stable Earth orbit. That step separates a test program from a vehicle capable of carrying paying payloads.
SpaceX is moving on a date rather than on a result. Starship has flown twice since SpaceX began trading, and both attempts stayed suborbital. Reaching stable Earth orbit is the threshold at which the vehicle can begin generating revenue flights instead of ferrying test articles.
Wood’s $10 Trillion Bull Case Separately, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood projected that Starship could generate $10 trillion in annual revenue by the end of the decade, and on that basis called SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion listing a bargain. Her projection builds up from Starlink connectivity revenue per unit of launched network capacity rather than from launch fees.
The projection carries two large assumptions. It presumes essentially every flight carries Starlink capacity, and it rests on an annual flight rate far above anything Starship has achieved. For scale, that revenue figure would exceed the yearly output of every national economy except the United States and China.
Wednesday’s move in SpaceX shares tracks the launch date more than the forecast, since the bull case rests on a cadence the vehicle hasn’t yet demonstrated. The near-term question for SpaceX is whether Starship can reach a stable orbit, not whether it can eventually match the flight rate that supports Wood’s number.
Peers Sit Out the Move Rocket Lab shares are essentially flat on the session while SpaceX stock rallies. That’s a repricing of one name and shouldn’t be interpreted as a sector-wide vote of confidence.
AST SpaceMobile shares are also close to flat, and the Procure Space ETF is only fractionally higher. Money isn’t chasing broad space exposure on the Starship headline, which keeps the day’s story tied specifically to SpaceX.
What to Watch The September 22 attempt is the next real information point for SpaceX. A clean run to a stable orbit clears the way for revenue-carrying payload flights, while another suborbital outcome would keep the commercial timeline open-ended.
Investors weighing their exposure to SpaceX stock can watch for whether the flight delivers on that orbit objective, since the bull case supporting SpaceX’s current valuation depends on cadence the vehicle hasn’t yet proven. Conservative position sizing makes sense with the flight record still short, and adding on evidence rather than on projections keeps their risk contained.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Cathie Wood has argued that Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) could become a "deep value opportunity" in hindsight if Starship reaches Elon Musk’s ambitious launch targets.
Her thesis rests on the potential for each Starship launch to support roughly $1 billion in revenue, but the $10 trillion annual figure she cited is an extrapolation, not SpaceX guidance.
The more immediate issue for SPCX investors is what the market is paying today. The market is already assigning a hefty price to the company’s future: SPCX trades at roughly 66 times sales, according to Benzinga Pro data.
At the same time, its chart is testing a key short-term support level. That leaves investors with a more immediate question: how much future growth is already priced in?
SpaceX NumbersSpaceX, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.89 trillion, has a 66.2x price-to-sales ratio. Its forward P/E stands at roughly 192x, while EV/EBITDA is nearly 485x.
Those numbers don’t necessarily invalidate the long-term growth story. They do show how much expansion investors are already paying for.
SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 191% to $3.5 billion. Connectivity revenue and operating income also grew sharply as Starlink subscribers doubled.
Read Next
That combination — rapid growth and an extraordinary valuation — is the central tension behind Wood’s "deep value" argument. The stock can ultimately grow into today’s multiple, but it will require the underlying businesses to scale dramatically.
SPCX Tests Key SupportChart created using Benzinga Pro
The chart adds a second test.
SPCX trades at $143.49 after a recent dip. The stock sits almost exactly on its 20-day simple moving average at $143.27.
That level now matters because SPCX is also below its 8-day moving average at $147.94, suggesting its very short-term momentum has weakened. At the same time, the 50-day average at $134.34 remains below the stock, leaving a wider cushion underneath.
The technical picture is therefore less about an extreme signal and more about a stock caught between two trends. RSI (relative strength index) at 51.30 is near neutral, while the MACD (moving average coveregence/divergence) indicator at 2.73 remains positive, indicating that momentum has not turned bearish even as SPCX trades below its shorter-term moving average.
The key question is whether the stock can reclaim the 8-day SMA or continue to hold the 20-day level.
SpaceX Growth Must Catch ValuationThe timing makes the setup particularly interesting. SpaceX is targeting Sept. 22 for Starship Flight 14, pending regulatory approval, with the mission designed to attempt Starship’s first orbital flight and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen has called Flight 14 a "revenue-generating flight," marking a transition from demonstration missions toward production cadence.
For investors, the next catalyst is therefore not simply whether Wood’s "deep value" prediction sounds plausible. It is whether SpaceX can translate rapid revenue growth and Starship progress into numbers capable of supporting a valuation that already assumes years of extraordinary expansion — while SPCX holds its key technical levels.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.15%) stock is up 30% since August, but most Wall Street analysts still think it's undervalued. The median target price of $212 per share implies 48% upside from the current share price of $143. But investors have reason to be skeptical.
SpaceX recently completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) on record, and stocks that go public at large market values tend to perform poorly during the first year. That is especially plausible for SpaceX because it trades at an absurd valuation that makes it more expensive than every stock in the S&P 500.
For those reasons, I think SpaceX will decline 22% to $112 per share by June 2027.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX has strong growth prospects tied to artificial intelligence SpaceX dominates the space launch industry, with four times as many commercial launches as every other competitor combined in 2025. The foundation of that dominance is reusable rockets, which lower launch costs by letting the company spread manufacturing expenses across multiple missions.
Nicolas Owens at Morningstar writes, "The company's core strength is the ability to deliver payloads into orbit at unmatched scale, frequency, reliability, and cost efficiency." Indeed, that economic moat enabled its Starlink subsidiary to scale rapidly, and ultimately made it the largest satellite internet service in the world.
However, Starlink still has room to expand. In the second quarter, the company had 12 million subscribers, which represents less than 1% of the world's 2.1 billion internet-connected households. Additionally, SpaceX recently acquired 65 MHz of wireless spectrum from EchoStar, laying the foundation for a new mobile service slated to launch in late 2027.
Elsewhere, SpaceX entered the artificial intelligence market by merging with xAI earlier this year. The company rents compute capacity to customers, including Alphabet's Google and Anthropic, and develops proprietary models. In the future, SpaceX plans to offer AI cloud services from orbital (space-based) data centers, hoping to overcome the power and cooling constraints that limit terrestrial data centers.
SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. The company attributes $2 trillion of that sum to its space and connectivity businesses, while the remaining $26.5 trillion comes from AI infrastructure and enterprise applications. That means SpaceX's ability to monetize AI services is the most important variable in determining its long-term growth trajectory.
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. That gave the rocket and satellite company an initial market capitalization of $1.8 trillion, making it the largest U.S. initial public offering (IPO) on record. We can estimate SpaceX's stock price by June 2027 by examining how other large IPOs have performed during their first year on the market.
The chart below lists the top 10 U.S. IPO stocks (by market value at the IPO price) between 2016 and 2025. It also shows how those stocks performed during their first year.
Largest IPO Stocks (2016-2025) 1-Year Return (Post-IPO) Uber Technologies (27%) Airbnb 284% Rivian Automotive (58%) Coinbase Global (41%) Venture Global (60%) Roblox (8%) DoorDash 62% Rocket Companies (3%) Snowflake 170% Robinhood Markets (76%) Median (17%) Data source: BlackRock, YCharts. The chart above shows the first-year return of the 10 largest U.S. IPO stocks between 2016 and 2025.
As shown above, among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs between 2016 and 2025, the median stock dropped 17% during its first year on the public market. If SpaceX matches that pattern, the stock will trade at $112 per share by June 2027. That implies about 22% downside from its current share price of $143.
Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. But investors have good reason to be cautious with SpaceX. The stock currently trades at 91 times sales, which is an absurdly expensive valuation even for a company whose sales increased 92% in the last quarter. For context, Palantir Technologies is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 at 67 times sales. SpaceX cannot maintain that substantial premium indefinitely.
Wait ... are you sure you want to buy shares of Anthropic at its IPO? Well, according to The Motley Fool's research, 7 out of 10 of you are planning on it. That's even after what happened to the IPO investors of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.15%), aka SpaceX.
Actually, what did happen to SpaceX's IPO investors? Here are three lessons we learned from the SpaceX IPO that should be very useful to Anthropic IPO investors in the fall.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lesson 1: IPO day doesn't mean IPO price Days before SpaceX went public, investors already knew its IPO price: $135 per share.
Once that price was officially set, it couldn't be changed (at least, not without some major headaches!). So, when IPO day rolled around on Friday, June 12, IPO investors paid the expected $135 per share.
However, when SpaceX's shares began trading on the Nasdaq at about noon that same day, they debuted at $150 per share and almost immediately jumped to $168 per share. For the rest of the day, they bounced around between $155.42 and $176.52 per share.
As of this writing, SpaceX's stock is at $151.37 per share, meaning that investors who bought actual IPO shares (at $135) are in the black, but most other day-one investors are in the red.
Anthropic investors should expect a similar price difference between IPO shares and other shares bought on IPO Day.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lesson 2: Pick the right broker Historically, the vast majority of IPO shares have been reserved for institutional investors. Individual investors were seldom offered a piece of the (true) IPO pie: They had to wait to buy shares on the open market once trading began.
SpaceX's IPO broke with this tradition, reserving about 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors through several different brokerages, including Robinhood Markets (HOOD -3.39%) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI -3.29%).
There's no guarantee that Anthropic will go the same route, but if so, you'll need the right type of account at the right brokerage.
Robinhood and SoFi Active Investing, for example, allow all their account holders to access IPO shares, regardless of account balances. Major brokerage Fidelity, on the other hand, usually requires $500,000 in household assets to participate in an IPO. Still, it made a special exception for the SpaceX IPO, lowering its threshold to just $2,000.
If you're hoping to access Anthropic IPO shares, make sure your brokerage will receive an allocation you can access.
Lesson 3: Expect volatility If you think SpaceX shares bounced around on their first day of public trading, their first three months have been a roller coaster!
Today's Change
(
-3.15
%) $
-4.66
Current Price
$
143.49
The stock briefly topped $200 per share on June 16, bottomed out at $108.27 per share in early August, and has averaged about $142 per share overall. That's roughly the midpoint between the IPO price of $135 and the Nasdaq debut price of $150.
There's likely to be more volatility ahead for the newly public SpaceX as it tries to successfully launch its Starship program and build out its AI infrastructure.
As another very high-profile IPO, Anthropic is also likely to have a volatile opening day/week/month/year. Investors should be aware of the risks.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.15%) went public in June and immediately became one of the market's biggest battleground stocks. While the company's share price has seen significant valuation swings and is down roughly 34% from its lifetime high, it has also seen strong pricing support above the $135 per share at which it was listed for its initial public offering (IPO). The stock is also currently roughly in line with the $150-per-share price at which it opened on the day of its IPO.
On the other hand, SpaceX stock is on the verge of another major lockup expiration -- an event that will make a large tranche of shares available for sale by insider owners. Here's what history says that could mean for other shareholders.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's lockup expirations could pressure the stock On Sept. 24, up to 328.4 million shares of SpaceX stock will be unlocked for sale. With a substantial number of shares potentially hitting the market, the company's stock price could face significant pressure.
SpaceX currently has a market capitalization of roughly $2.05 trillion, and insider shareholders have the opportunity to lock in life-changing wealth by selling some of their stock at current levels. That doesn't necessarily mean that these insiders don't have confidence in the company. Employees at all levels of the company own SpaceX stock, and the company has seen enormous valuation growth from its early days through the lead-up to its IPO and short history as a publicly traded business.
The last lockup expiration for the stock occurred on Sept. 9 and coincided with a 3.9% decline for the company's share price in the daily session. Given historical trading trends on days in which a large new tranche of shares becomes available for sale, it's reasonable to expect that the stock will face some meaningful selling pressure on Sept. 24. On the other hand, that doesn't necessarily guarantee that the stock will lose ground in the session or that it will move lower in the lead up to the next round of new shares becoming eligible for sale.
Today's Change
(
-3.15
%) $
-4.66
Current Price
$
143.49
What about other lockup expirations for the stock? While the lockup expiration for SpaceX stock on Sept. 24 looks to be a significant event, it's actually part of a bigger lockup expiration chain on the horizon. Up to 328.4 million new shares will become eligible for sale on both Oct. 9 and Oct. 24. Up to 1.3 billion shares will become available for sale following the company's Q3 earnings release, and roughly 800 million additional shares will then be unlocked for sale on Dec. 8 -- but an even bigger lockup expiration is set to occur next year.
On June 12, one year after SpaceX's IPO, CEO Elon Musk's stake in the company will become eligible for sale. According to the last available regulatory filings, Musk owns roughly 48.4% of the company's stock.
Again, lockup expirations don't necessarily mean a company's share price will see a big pullback. If investors become more confident about the macroeconomic backdrop and SpaceX delivers encouraging business news, the company's valuation could climb substantially even if some insiders sell stock. The lockup expirations mean a large number of shares will become unlocked for sale by insiders, but the stock could still climb through and after these events if there is strong market demand.
While SpaceX trades at a highly growth-dependent valuation that makes its stock a risky play, the company's business performance has generally looked encouraging recently. In its August Q2 report, SpaceX announced a loss of $0.09 per share on sales of $7.81 billion -- significantly better than the average analyst estimate, which called for a per-share loss of $0.26 on revenue of $6.93 billion.
SpaceX's revenue increased 92% year over year in the quarter, and its net loss narrowed to $541 million from roughly $1 billion in the prior-year quarter, even as the company continued to spend heavily to improve its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) market. While Musk's company remains best known for its Starlink and rocket businesses, AI is actually the most important part of the business's growth strategy. If SpaceX succeeds in its ambitions in the category, selling pressures connected to lockup expirations won't matter over the long term.
I like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.00%), otherwise known as SpaceX. It's one of the most extraordinary companies I've ever come across.
Starlink, its satellite internet service, is becoming a global business. SpaceX's artificial intelligence operations are growing at an extraordinary pace. Falcon 9 has already transformed the economics of launching satellites. And Starship -- the next-generation rocket -- could eventually make it dramatically cheaper to get payloads into orbit.
The company has an ambitious founder, an enormous balance sheet, and a track record of turning seemingly impossible ideas into real businesses. So why am I not buying SpaceX stock despite all these reasons?
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is an incredible business Let's get one thing out of the way. This isn't a bear case on SpaceX. The company is executing at a level few businesses can match.
Revenue reached approximately $7.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 92% from a year earlier. Starlink generated $4.3 billion of revenue and roughly $1.7 billion of operating income. Its subscriber base reached approximately 12 million. Meanwhile, AI-related revenue surged 247% to approximately $2.6 billion.
Those aren't numbers you see from an ordinary aerospace company. They show that SpaceX is already building multiple large businesses simultaneously. And the opportunity ahead could be much larger across these segments.
In short, I think SpaceX is a great company well-positioned for long-term growth.
Today's Change
(
-3.00
%) $
-4.44
Current Price
$
143.71
But the market already knows the story Here's the problem with investing in a great company: Everyone else can see it, too. At $153 per share (as of writing), SpaceX has a market capitalization of around $2 trillion. Comparatively, annualized revenue ($7.8 billion x 4) stands at $31.2 billion, and the company is still unprofitable.
At that price, investors aren't simply buying today's business. They're buying a huge portion of tomorrow's success. They're assuming Starlink will continue to grow and that AI will become a major, highly profitable business. They're assigning substantial value to Starship before its economics have been proven at commercial scale. Or investors are exuberant and willing to pay any price for the stock.
And that makes investing in SpaceX rather difficult. Imagine SpaceX executes well and becomes an extraordinary business over the next decade. Starlink keeps compounding. AI becomes a major profit center. And Starship works.
Yet, the stock could still disappoint. Why? Because if investors have already paid for much of that success today, it leaves little room for future price appreciation. That's the difference between a great company and a great investment.
What would make me change my mind? Simple. I'm waiting for the stock price to become more attractive relative to the opportunity. That could happen in several ways. SpaceX could continue to grow rapidly while its valuation remains relatively flat, allowing the business to outpace the stock price.
Or the market could become worried about the company's enormous capital spending -- $18.4 billion in a single quarter -- prompting investors to question the return on capital. It could also happen if execution encounters speed bumps, such as Starship experiencing meaningful delays or Starlink growth temporarily slowing.
Any of these events could create a better entry point without destroying the long-term thesis. That's the kind of opportunity I'm looking for. Because the best time to buy a great business isn't necessarily when everyone agrees it's great -- it's when the market temporarily becomes less certain about how great it can become.
The downside is that the waiting may cause me to miss some upside. And that is the uncomfortable truth about investing: Sometimes the right decision is to let an opportunity pass, especially if it doesn't offer the right risk-reward ratio.
What does it mean for investors? There's no doubt that SpaceX is one of the most interesting companies on the planet, doing things that almost no other companies are doing. But still, investing is not about buying the best companies. It's about buying the right company at the right price. In other words, valuation matters.
In short, I like SpaceX. I believe in its long-term opportunity, and I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one of the greatest companies of the next decade. I'm just not willing to pay today's price for that outcome. I'd rather wait for the market to give me a better entry point.
SpaceX is ready to perform the 14th test flight of its Starship mega-rocket, and now the company will finally try to put the upper stage into Earth’s orbit for the first time, the company announced Tuesday.
The test launch is scheduled for September 22, with a 75-minute launch window opening at 7:15 a.m. CT. During the test launch, SpaceX plans to deploy the first batch of third-generation Starlinks into its network of 10,000 internet satellites. The company expects to launch 26 V3 satellites into orbit in this test flight.
If successful, this will be the first Starship launch to generate revenue for SpaceX’s launch division (even if that revenue is coming from another division of the company).
This will be the second Starship test launch since SpaceX became a publicly traded company in the largest IPO in history in June. The first came in July, when SpaceX successfully deployed V3 Starlink satellites for the first time — though those were only meant to test Starship’s deployment capability and burned up in Earth’s atmosphere after roughly 20 minutes.
Getting Starship’s upper stage into orbit around Earth would represent a major milestone for SpaceX. The company has spent billions of dollars on the program and is now looking to retire its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets in favor of Starship. Founder and CEO Elon Musk has said that will happen once Starship is flying “reliably several times per week” to save “scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources.”
SpaceX needs Starship to reliably reach orbit, return to Earth, and get quickly reused to fulfill the massive launch cadence promises that it made during the IPO process.
Starship’s 14th test flight will only test the first part of that equation, though. Musk recently walked back previous claims that SpaceX might try to use its launch tower to catch the Starship upper stage during this flight, saying an explosion would be too big a setback for the company at this point.
SpaceX also won’t try to catch the Super Heavy booster this time. The company has struggled with the booster during its last few test flights and has made multiple changes to try to prevent failures. Yet the booster still struggled to properly relight its engines after separating from the Starship upper stage on Flight 13 in July. For this mission, SpaceX said Tuesday that it made another round of “several modifications” to the booster’s hardware and software to “address issues seen on the previous flight.”
SpaceX had far more success with the upper stage of Starship on Flight 13. While it did not reach orbit, it had a smooth flight through a simulated landing in the Indian Ocean. The upper stage didn’t even explode when it tipped over into the water, allowing SpaceX to spend the last few months capturing and slowly towing it back to its Texas headquarters.
SpaceX said Tuesday that it has made additional changes to the Starship heat shield based on what it learned from studying the recovered upper stage from Flight 13.
When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.
Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
SpaceX said on Tuesday it was preparing to launch its next Starship flight test as soon as September 22, a mission expected to send the vehicle into orbit for the first time and deploy Starlink V3 satellites.
SpaceX SPCX stock slipped nearly 3% early Tuesday, extending a roughly 2% decline on Monday.
Shares were trading around $144, close to the level of their $150 debut price.
The stock has nevertheless recovered significantly over the past several weeks after falling to a record low of $104.83 on August 3.
The latest pullback comes as investors look ahead to both additional lockup releases and a potentially important Starship test later this month.
Unlike a typical IPO, SpaceX did not establish a single 180-day lockup expiration.
Its prospectus instead spread insider selling eligibility across roughly a dozen dates, limiting the amount of new supply released at any one time.
The staggered structure, however, has not eliminated the pressure from potential selling.
Shares fell around 3% during the latest major release after up to 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading, representing roughly $49 billion at recent prices.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day.
Several additional unlocks are scheduled before the end of 2026.
On September 24, around 320 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading.
Another roughly 320 million shares are scheduled for October 9 and October 24.
The largest release is expected two full trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter results, which are expected in late October or early November.
Up to 1.3 billion shares, or about 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable at that point.
December 8 marks the 180-day expiration, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
That creates a persistent overhang for investors, particularly as early shareholders gain more opportunities to take profits following SpaceX’s recovery from its August low.
While the lockup schedule represents a supply-side risk for SPCX, Starship remains one of the company’s biggest potential long-term catalysts.
SpaceX is scheduled to launch its 14th Starship test flight on September 22 from Starbase, Texas, according to the FAA’s Current Operations Plan Advisory.
September 23 is listed as a backup date.
The launch comes after CFO Bret Johnsen said last week that Flight 14 will be the first revenue-generating flight for Starship.
The spacecraft is expected to carry production-grade Version 3 Starlink satellites into orbit, which Johnsen described as a major milestone.
Elon Musk said Monday that Flight 14 will be the final test before SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship spacecraft with its launch tower.
“We've got flight 14 coming up, of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship,” Musk said at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles. “So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship.”
Musk also said SpaceX could later this year, or more likely early next year, attempt to refly both the Starship spacecraft and booster.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the ability to reuse its boosters, but it has yet to successfully perform a tower catch of the Starship spacecraft or fly the ship again.
The upcoming tests matter because a large part of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said earlier this month that achieving full reusability is central to whether SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation can be justified.
His $220 price target assumes Starship can achieve 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and rapid turnaround times.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said. “If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”
The potential scale is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9.
For investors tracking technology trends and aerospace investments, a notable event is unfolding on Wall Street.
SpaceX Today
$145.63 -2.52 (-1.70%)
As of 10:37 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$104.83▼
$225.64$221.42
On Friday, Sept. 18, index-tracking funds will make one of the quarter's largest programmatic portfolio adjustments. As post-IPO lockups expire and more of SpaceX's NASDAQ: SPCX shares become freely tradable, the benchmark weighting for SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 will more than double at the quarterly rebalance.
For individual investors, this adjustment provides a transparent window into how the modern market functions. Index funds such as Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ: QQQ, with its market capitalization of over $470 billion, must now allocate billions of dollars at the closing bell, regardless of near-term headlines or market sentiment. Examining how this required capital reallocation interacts with the expanding space economy helps investors separate short-term trading mechanics from fundamental business value.
Get SpaceX alerts:
Nasdaq-100 Lifts the Launchpad for SpaceXTo understand this capital reallocation, investors need to examine the Nasdaq-100 Index's governing framework. When SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion at $135 per share, it entered public trading with a closely held share base.
The index administrator applies a float-capping rule whenever public float comprises less than 33.3% of total shares. Under this guideline, the index calculates weighting based on three times the freely tradable float rather than full market capitalization.
When SpaceX joined the benchmark on July 7, 2026, this constraint capped its representation at about 1.28%, placing it nineteenth in index weight despite a market valuation near $2 trillion.
That regulatory cap has now widened. Two post-offering lockup periods expired on Aug. 6 and Aug. 20, releasing more than 1.2 billion shares. Major venture backers and long-term funds held onto their stakes, allowing the tradable supply to expand without triggering secondary market selling. This increase in float met index eligibility rules, lifting SpaceX's projected weighting to about 2.82% ahead of the official rebalancing on Monday, Sept. 21.
For index-tracking exchange-traded funds managing about $1.7 trillion benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100, this rebalance is automatic. Funds must buy between $15.5 billion and $22 billion of SpaceX shares, concentrating purchase orders during the closing cross on Sept. 18 to limit tracking error.
Commercial Space Reaches Escape VelocityIndex rebalancing may drive the short-term buying and selling, but the commercial space sector is riding a much longer wave of growth. The orbital economy is shifting from experimental rocket flights to vital global infrastructure. Modern businesses and government agencies treat low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks as indispensable public communications utilities.
National security procurement provides an ongoing foundation for this industry expansion. Modernization initiatives within the Space Development Agency (SDA) consistently allocate defense capital to distributed LEO constellations for missile tracking and encrypted tactical communications. Commercial direct-to-cell telecom connectivity continues to widen the market, connecting ordinary smartphones directly to space-based infrastructure.
Orbital edge computing is emerging as another growth area for the industry. Space systems are beginning to incorporate dedicated data processors, including systems planned around NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA architecture.
Conducting data processing in orbit before downlinking reduces signal latency and creates higher-margin software business models. For investors focused on long-term themes, the ongoing buildout of space logistics and communications represents a compelling trend.
Gravity Catches Up With Operating MomentumAssessing an individual business requires looking beyond broad sector tailwinds. SpaceX achieved operational progress in the second quarter of 2026, posting $7.81 billion in revenue, which represents an increase of 91.9% year-over-year (YOY).
The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 9 cents, coming in ahead of analyst expectations of a 26-cent loss. Balance sheet metrics remain steady, supported by a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99, and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29.
Investors should weigh these operational milestones against a demanding valuation. Based on annual sales near $18.67 billion, SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 106x. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.79%, high-multiple stocks face valuation compression if broader market multiples adjust downward.
Capital expenditures also remain substantial. Maintaining high launch frequencies, manufacturing Starlink user hardware, and funding Starship flight testing absorb significant capital. Until operating cash flows comfortably outpace infrastructure spending, SpaceX shares will remain sensitive to broader shifts in technology valuations.
Space Traffic Ahead: Dodging Reentry Heat on Rebalance DayMandatory index buying against a closely held share base has led some market analysts to anticipate a mechanical price surge heading into Sept. 18. Even with substantial passive capital flows on the horizon, historical market patterns suggest caution toward front-running strategies.
When SpaceX entered the index on July 7, passive indexers absorbed about $4.3 billion in forced purchases, yet SpaceX shares fell more than 6% that day. Institutional liquidity providers and short-term traders who accumulated shares before the event used the closing liquidity to unwind their positions. A similar situation could occur if speculative buying becomes overcrowded before Friday's closing bell.
Future share unlocks introduce another layer of supply. More than 2.3 billion restricted shares are scheduled to exit lockup restrictions across late October and mid-November after third-quarter results. This substantial volume of potential stock could limit upward price progress beyond the current $146 to $152 trading corridor.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart for Tuesday, September, 15, 2026
Charting Your Course in the Orbital Tech FrontierThe upcoming rebalancing event provides a useful opportunity to study market mechanics in real time. Investors with a constructive outlook on the space economy might explore diversified aerospace contractors or satellite equipment suppliers trading at lower valuation multiples than SpaceX.
For investors interested in SpaceX, a patient stance can be a prudent path forward. Waiting for the market to absorb the Sept. 18 index rebalance volume and observing how SpaceX navigates its autumn lockup expirations should offer a clearer, more balanced view of long-term entry levels.
Should You Invest $1,000 in SpaceX Right Now?Before you consider SpaceX, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SpaceX wasn't on the list.
While SpaceX currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
View The Five Stocks Here
Discover the 10 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks for 2026 and secure reliable income in uncertain markets. Download the report now to identify top dividend payers and avoid common yield traps.
Get This Free Report
Continue following MarketBeat
Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.
The U.S. has said for the first time Monday that the Space Force has deployed weapons in orbit.
U.S. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink told the Air and Space Cyber Conference that the U.S. has "on-orbit space control weapons," as he outlined a broader push to modernize the Air Force and Space Force in response to advances by U.S. adversaries, AI, and the growing use of autonomous weapons.
He did not specify what kind of weapons in space had been deployed, or when, according to the official Air Force account.
In the speech, Meink described a rapidly accelerating threat environment facing the U.S., saying that adversaries were exploiting new technologies and arguing that the U.S. needed to increase combat power faster and more affordably, including through autonomous systems and cheaper weapons.
"We will dramatically increase our combat power by adding large numbers of highly autonomous systems," he said. "Because of the steps we're taking today, we'll have a radically different-looking Air Force by 2032."
His comments come as governments are reassessing what weapons and defense systems they'll need to defend themselves against an increased threat from hybrid attacks. The fighting in Ukraine in particular has highlighted how warfare is moving more towards autonomous systems, AI and drones.
Boosted by the successful public listing of SpaceX earlier this year – the largest IPO ever – investors are increasingly looking to place bets on the growing commercial space economy.
