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There are reasons to both buy and sell SpaceX stock.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.51%), widely known as SpaceX, closed at $151.85 on Sept. 21 -- fairly close to their opening-day first trading price of $150. 

To reach $190 by the end of 2026, the stock would need to climb by roughly 25%.

While that may look like an aggressive prediction, especially given that there are just over three months remaining in 2026, the target price of $190 is still around 16% below the stock's all-time high of $225.64. Additionally, SpaceX's revenue expectations have risen sharply as its artificial intelligence (AI) business has scaled. Hence, a higher share price could be easier to justify if the company delivers on those expectations.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX stock can reach $190 SpaceX had about 13.18 billion shares outstanding on July 28. When its Cursor acquisition closed in August, Cursor shareholders and vested restricted stock unit (RSU) holders became entitled to roughly 391 million additional shares. So SpaceX's basic share count is now estimated to be about 13.57 billion. At $190 per share, this would translate into a market capitalization of roughly $2.58 trillion.

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Hence, we need to assess if SpaceX's revenue can grow fast enough to support that valuation without investors paying an even richer valuation multiple.

Analysts' consensus revenue estimate for SpaceX in 2027 is about $108.3 billion. Using the estimated post-Cursor acquisition share count, SpaceX's Sept. 21 market capitalization is around $2.06 trillion, and the stock trades at around 19 times expected 2027 sales.

If its forward sales multiple remains constant, SpaceX would need to be tracking toward revenue of roughly $136 billion in 2027 to support a $190 share price. That is about 25% above the current consensus estimate, but still below the highest analyst estimate of $151.96 billion.

Why another estimate reset could support $190 The new revenue estimate is around $27 billion above the current consensus estimate of roughly $108 billion. But analysts have already revised their views of one part of SpaceX's business. Barron's reported that estimates for 2027 AI revenue alone had increased from roughly $38 billion in June to about $67 billion in September, a jump of nearly $29 billion.

While this does not guarantee that revenue estimates for 2027 will rise by another $27 billion, it shows that the size of the estimate reset that would be needed to support a $190 share price is not unprecedented.

SpaceX's recent quarterly results have also been impressive. In the second quarter, the company's AI revenue jumped 247% year over year to $2.6 billion. The AI segment's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also improved sharply, from a loss of $276 million in the prior-year period to positive $1.15 billion. The company also disclosed $14.1 billion in contracted cloud service sales.

SpaceX is not relying only on AI growth. Q2 revenue from its connectivity segment -- primarily the Starlink satellite broadband business -- reached $4.29 billion, while Q2 operating income reached $1.66 billion.

SpaceX would not even need to reach the highest 2027 revenue estimate to justify growth to the $190-per-share target price. If the AI segment continues to outperform expectations while the Starlink satellite network keeps growing its subscriber base, a 2027 revenue estimate of $136 billion looks increasingly plausible. Hence, I think SpaceX could trade at $190 by the end of 2026.

Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX -1.40%) market debut may have been one of the most exciting investing events of the year. For a few reasons. First, it involved a company pursuing three innovative businesses: space, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Second, Elon Musk, known for his aggressive push into challenging but potentially lucrative fields, leads the company.

Finally, and perhaps the most compelling reason of all, SpaceX launched the biggest initial public offering on record, raising more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option, and entered the market with a trillion-dollar valuation. Its market value immediately put it on par with market giants such as Nvidia and Amazon -- companies that took years to reach such levels.

Though SpaceX stock took off in its first days of trading, its path since hasn't been as positive. Today, the stock is down about 3% from its opening price of $150 and down 14% from its IPO price of $135. Should you buy on the dip? Let's find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX says Starship flights put it on track to full reusability First, as mentioned, SpaceX has attracted considerable attention for its innovative businesses. The company operates a space unit, which has a goal of reducing launch costs through the use of reusable rockets. And it's made significant progress here. During SpaceX's earnings report in August, it said its two completed Starship V3 flight tests put it on track toward "full and rapid reusability."

Now, SpaceX aims to launch Starship on its 14th flight on Sept. 28, and it will be the first Starship flight to orbit around Earth. The mission also will benefit SpaceX's connectivity business, known as Starlink, as the spacecraft will deliver Starlink V3 satellites to supercharge connectivity speeds and reliability.

What's interesting about SpaceX, as we can see here, is that the space business may significantly contribute to the successes of Starlink and the AI business as well -- a goal of the AI unit is to establish data centers in space, and we could imagine Starship being an integral part of the plan. All of this would lower costs for SpaceX and favor efficiency as the company wouldn't have to rely on other companies for many key tasks.

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SpaceX AI's capex exceeds total revenue This is positive and certainly sparks the interest of investors looking for growth. But it's important to keep in mind that these businesses, particularly AI, require a huge amount of investment. For example, in the recent quarter alone, the AI business' capital expenditures totaled $15 billion -- that's up from $7 billion in the previous quarter and about $700 million in the year-earlier period. In the quarter, the AI business brought in $2 billion in revenue, and the company as a whole generated $7.8 billion in revenue. At the same time, due to this investment in growth, SpaceX's loss has deepened.

And it's also important to keep in mind that this focus on innovation is great, but it equals risk. This is because, to reach its biggest goals, SpaceX relies on technology that hasn't yet been fully proven. So, if the technology works as expected, the win could be colossal, but if it doesn't, the loss could be significant.

Now, let's get back to our question: Considering this complete picture, is SpaceX a buy on the dip right now? The answer has a lot to do with your investment strategy and comfort with risk. If you're an aggressive growth investor, you might consider picking up shares of SpaceX and holding on -- certain accomplishments, such as successful space launches and progress in reusable technology, could periodically spur gains. Also, a generally positive market environment may boost appetite for growth stocks such as SpaceX.

But, if you're a cautious or even middle-of-the-road investor, it still may be a bit too early to get in on this tech and industrial giant. Before diving in, I would look for at least another couple of quarters of earnings reports to see whether spending levels spur further growth, particularly in the AI business.

A federal disclosure quietly buried inside a batch of monthly trades reveals the president holds a stake in one of his administration's most powerful contractors, raising a question investors cannot yet price.

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A federal financial disclosure shows the president bought shares of SpaceX weeks after its 2026 public offering, then sold a smaller amount roughly a week later.

Both trades are reported only as dollar ranges, so exact share counts and precise gains or losses cannot be calculated from the filing. The share price fell sharply between the purchase and sale dates.

The position is tiny against a company whose market value runs into the trillions. For shareholders of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction), the practical question is whether presidential ownership changes the risk profile of a stock already carrying unusual political exposure.

What the Filing Establishes, and What It Does Not Reuters reported the purchase and sale sit inside a large batch of trades executed in the same month. The filing does not identify who directed the transactions.

SpaceX is a United States military contractor that regularly seeks federal agency approvals. The administration continues to make decisions that can affect the company’s fortunes, creating a conflict-of-interest question that shows up as headline and regulatory risk rather than cash-flow risk.

The first earnings report as a public company showed revenue of $7.81 billion, up roughly 92% year over year, alongside a net loss of $541 million and adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion.

Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million, and the AI segment turned adjusted-EBITDA positive at $1.1 billion for the quarter.

Capital spending totaled $18.37 billion, with $15.83 billion directed to AI compute infrastructure.

Elon Musk compressed the bull thesis into one line on the call: “I think people are really underestimating Starlink here”.

Peers and the Mechanical Bid Launch peer Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ:RKLB) sits on the same commercial space trend but at a fraction of the scale, while AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) competes directly against Starlink’s mobile push. On the compute side, SpaceX said it will build exclusively on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Vera Rubin architecture, tying its AI capex directly to NVIDIA’s order book.

A quarterly index rebalance is raising SpaceX’s index weighting. Passive funds must buy to match the new weight regardless of price, a one-time flow that changes the share register rather than the business.

The stock closed at $148.36 on September 23, 2026, up 9.9% over the past month yet 7.82% below its post-IPO high. Sell-side coverage skews positive at 28 buys, 5 holds, and 2 sells.

Bull and Bear Case for SPCX Stock The bull case is a business nearly doubling revenue with Starlink scaling globally, an AI segment newly profitable on an adjusted basis, a mechanical index bid arriving now, and a stock trading below its post-IPO record.

The bear case is a continuing net loss, capital spending that keeps climbing, no long trading history to anchor valuation, and political entanglement that invites scrutiny in both directions.

The deciding variable is whether Starlink generates cash faster than AI compute consumes it. If it does, the president’s small trade is a footnote; if it does not, governance headlines will be a secondary concern.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

On June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (better known as SpaceX) (SPCX -4.11%), reset the bar for initial public offerings (IPOs). The $85.7 billion raised from its IPO, including the underwriters' overallotment, almost tripled the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco.

Retail investors are clearly excited about SpaceX's high-ceiling addressable opportunity. The company's lengthy prospectus suggests that $26.5 trillion of its $28.5 trillion addressable market lies with AI.

Image source: Getty Images.

But SpaceX is making dubious history as well. The company's nontraditional lockup period and historically low post-IPO float have set retail investors up for a potential fleecing.

SpaceX chose an accelerated and staggered insider lockup scheduleWhen private companies go public, they'll usually prevent insiders, comprised of high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors, from selling their shares for 180 calendar days. This lockup period prevents insiders from taking advantage of early investor hype.

SpaceX's mile-long registration statement outlined a different approach that would allow early-release-eligible insiders to sell some of their shares well before the 180-calendar-day mark. Although Elon Musk isn't eligible to sell any of his shares for 366 calendar days, a slew of event- and time-based share-unlock periods were put in place.

Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such… pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026 The first early-release-eligible share-unlock event occurred two days after the company's first quarterly report as a public company. On Aug. 6, approximately 911.5 million shares (roughly $100 billion in market value) became eligible for sale.

Several time-based events follow, with early-release-eligible shares unlocking on calendar days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135, and 180 after SpaceX's debut. Thus far, 319 million additional shares became eligible for sale by select insiders on Aug. 20 (the 70th calendar day) and Sept. 9 (the 90th calendar day).

Today, Sept. 24, marks the 105th calendar day and, therefore, the release of another 319 million shares for eligible insiders, equating to approximately $48.7 billion in potential selling pressure.

Image source: Getty Images.

Space Exploration Technologies' low float complicates thingsHowever, the potential for persistent insider selling is only half the story. The fleecing of SpaceX's retail investors also has to do with the company's low post-IPO float (the number of tradable shares).

When a company goes public, it typically sells 10% to 25% of its outstanding shares. Even though Musk's Space Exploration Technologies sold around 555.6 million shares at $135 each for its IPO, which may sound like a lot, this represented less than 5% of its outstanding shares.

Initially, SpaceX's low float worked in its and its shareholders' favor. Being granted fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 meant passive funds would be purchasing its shares.

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But with each successive share-unlock milestone, the company's float meaningfully grows. What we're witnessing is, arguably, nothing short of the greatest wealth transfer in history, from retail investors to corporate insiders who've not had an avenue to sell for years, if not over a decade.

All the while, SpaceX is losing money and spending aggressively on its AI infrastructure expansion. While growth rates are robust, Musk's AI and space conglomerate hasn't yet proven its long-term sustainability.

Today marks one of several milestones where SpaceX's retail investors are getting the short end of the stick.

SpaceX (SPCX -4.11%) is one of the most intriguing companies to ever go public, and its upside potential could be big. Led by Elon Musk, the company is looking to disrupt industries and create entirely new ones.

While Musk is a polarizing figure, one thing is undeniable: He is a visionary. And he has huge ambitions for SpaceX, saying the company will eventually be worth more than Earth itself.

Chasing a $28.5 trillion opportunity In its IPO prospectus, SpaceX said it is chasing a current $28.5 trillion opportunity, which it called the largest in human history. While its opportunities in the space ($370 billion), the broadband ($870 billion), and mobile ($740 billion) connectivity markets with Starlink are sizable, most of its total addressable market (TAM) is centered around artificial intelligence (AI).

Within AI, it sees digital advertising as a $600 billion market, with subscriptions adding another $760 billion to its TAM. Meanwhile, it views AI infrastructure as a $2.4 trillion market opportunity. The bulk of its TAM, though, is in the $22.7 trillion enterprise applications market. This figure comes from the Digital Cooperation Organization's estimate of the total digital economy in 2026 and covers areas such as AI automation, AI agents, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and enterprise applications.

Image source: Getty Images.

Within its TAM, SpaceX's biggest near-term growth drivers appear to be satellite internet service through Starlink, AI infrastructure, and AI coding following its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor. Starlink is a recurring revenue subscription business that is growing quickly. Its number of subscribers doubled year over year last quarter to 12 million, while its connectivity revenue surged 66%. The company is seeing strength both in the enterprise & government space (108% revenue growth) and consumer segment (44% revenue growth).

Its AI segment has been its fastest-growing, led by AI infrastructure, while Cursor will add a fast-growing AI coding platform. In Q2, its AI solutions & infrastructure skyrocketed to $2.19 billion, up from $475 million in Q1 and $311 million a year ago. The company is adding compute capacity quickly and recently announced that it signed a $1.1 billion a month AI hosting deal.

Acting largely as a short-term rental option for compute capacity, SpaceX is seeing exceptionally strong economics in a compute capacity-constrained environment. It said it is seeing a payback within a year on its AI infrastructure investments, which is considerably shorter than the two- to three-year payback period cloud leader Amazon has discussed.

Longer term, SpaceX has big ambitions that include putting data centers in space, point-to-point terrestrial travel, asteroid mining, energy production and manufacturing on the moon and Mars, and even space tourism. However, they are unlikely to contribute any significant revenue in the next five years.

Based on the current consensus, analysts see SpaceX's revenue surging to close to $852 billion by 2031. That is below Musk's claim that the company could hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. It is also worth noting that this comes from only four analyst forecasts and that the range is quite wide, going from a $493 billion estimate to slightly over $1 trillion.

Musk's other company, Tesla, meanwhile, settled into a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 5 times about five years after its market debut. Using the low and high ends of analyst revenue projections would value SpaceX at a market cap between $2.47 trillion and $5 trillion, with the stock valued at $4.26 trillion at consensus.

Given SpaceX's future heavy capex spending, you'll have to assume share dilution, and Morgan Stanley initially modeled its diluted share count rising to nearly 13 billion. That would value its stock price between $190 and $384, with the consensus at $328.

That's more than double its current price, turning a $1,000 investment into more than $2,000. However, given the nature of the company, there is a wide range of outcomes going forward.

When SpaceX (SPCX -4.11%) entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, index funds tracking that benchmark had no choice but to buy the stock -- under a month after the company's initial public offering. Some investors might be hoping the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.75%) prompts another round of that sort of buying.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the index, has already ruled out an early entry. On June 4, it opted not to fast-track huge IPOs into its flagship index, and its logic was straightforward: size by itself doesn't win an exception to the rules.

That left SpaceX, with a market value close to $2 trillion, up against the same three tests as every other candidate.

The first test keeps the company out until at least June 2027. The second could keep it out longer -- and, I'd say, it's the one stockholders should watch.

Image source: Getty Images.

Three tests, no exceptionsThe consultation behind the decision had proposed shortcuts for megacap companies, such as a seasoning period cut to six months and a waiver of the earnings and float tests. S&P Dow Jones Indices retained all three rules.

A new stock must trade on an eligible exchange for at least 12 months before it can be considered. Its GAAP net income from continuing operations (the unadjusted, bottom-line kind) must be positive in the most recent quarter, and in the four most recent quarters taken together. And at least 10% of a company's shares must be available to public investors.

SpaceX began trading on June 12, so the seasoning test can't be met before June 2027. The float test should sort itself out along the way.

Lockup agreements free up shares on a fixed schedule, with about 328 million more becoming eligible to trade on Thursday, Sept. 24, and billions more to come by December. Even CEO Elon Musk, who holds almost half the company, can't sell before next June.

The profitability test is the tough oneSpaceX now fails both parts of the earnings test. It posted a $541 million net loss for the second quarter. And its four most recent reported quarters total a net loss of more than $8 billion.

But the test considers only a rolling four-quarter window. Most of this year's losses came in the first quarter, when SpaceX lost $4.3 billion -- a number that included about $1.5 billion of one-time charges from retiring debt. By June 2027, that quarter will have fallen out of the tested window completely.

The second quarter's loss, though, will still count. To pass at the earliest eligible date, SpaceX needs the three quarters it reports between now and then to earn more than $541 million combined -- and the final one, the first quarter of 2027, must be profitable on its own.

And the company's heading in that direction. Not only did its loss from operations shrink to just $143 million in the second quarter (compared to $970 million a year earlier and $1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026), but revenue growth also rose to 92% year over year from the first quarter's 15%. SpaceX has even posted a profitable year before, making $791 million in 2024.

Added costs keep the losses comingStill, there's a reason profits could take longer to arrive. SpaceX's spending hits the income statement with a lag.

The company put $28.5 billion into capital expenditures in the first half of 2026, most of it on artificial intelligence data centers. A lot of that spending turns into depreciation when the assets are up and running, an expense charged against earnings over the years the equipment remains in service.

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The charge is rising rapidly. Depreciation and amortization totaled $2.8 billion in the second quarter, up from $2.4 billion in the first and $1.5 billion a year earlier. And the equipment bought this year will probably drive it higher still. Interest is a growing expense, as well. SpaceX issued $25 billion of bonds in June, and interest expense was $629 million last quarter.

Put another way, the income statement is getting better and taking on new weight at the same time. A company can sit on a $100 billion war chest, as SpaceX did at midyear, and still report GAAP losses for quarters to come.

In the end, the calendar is the easy part. The seasoning requirement ends next June on its own, the float expands on a published schedule, and even a company that passes every test still needs the index committee to select it.

The earnings requirement is the one without a deadline. If you own the stock in hopes of forced index buying, I think quarterly net income, not June 2027, is the number to watch. And at about $152 per share as of this writing, I wouldn't buy shares simply to wait for it.

A looming share unlock, a top executive's $52 million stock sale, and stretched valuations are colliding at once for SpaceX, and the next few sessions will test whether buyers hold the line or step aside.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is down 4% today to $148.13 as investors weigh a looming share unlock, a proposed $52 million sale by President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, and concerns about the company’s valuation. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is falling 6% to $60.08, while Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 2% to $70.28, extending weakness across several space-related names.

The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is down 2% to $43.22, compared with a 0.89% decline for the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) to $740.81. The broader weakness suggests today’s pressure isn’t limited to SpaceX, although SpaceX stock has its own supply and valuation issues that could make the next several sessions particularly interesting.

SpaceX Faces Another Wave of Potential Supply SpaceX is approaching another lockup expiration on September 24, when about 328 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale. The expiration doesn’t require holders to sell, but the additional potential supply could weigh on SpaceX stock if early investors, employees or other shareholders decide to monetize their holdings.

The supply concern comes alongside Shotwell’s disclosed plan to sell 342,170 shares with an aggregate value of nearly $52 million. The filing indicates that Shotwell acquired the shares through a cash exercise of stock options, and the transaction falls within a trading plan adopted in June, meaning the planned sale doesn’t necessarily represent a fresh change in her outlook for SpaceX.

Valuation Keeps the Debate Alive SpaceX stock also faces a valuation question after a powerful run since the company’s June IPO. The stock’s current level remains above the $135 IPO price, while investors are assigning substantial value to Starlink, launch operations and newer opportunities involving artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The bullish case has several potential catalysts, including continued Starlink growth and SpaceX’s upcoming Starship test flight scheduled for September 28. Barron’s reported that SpaceX had about 1.4 gigawatts of AI computing capacity at the end of the second quarter and plans to expand that capacity substantially, although some of the company’s more ambitious AI-in-space plans remain dependent on Starship’s development.

Space Stocks Are Feeling the Pressure Rocket Lab stock and AST SpaceMobile stock are also falling today, showing that investors aren’t treating the weakness as an issue unique to SpaceX. The Procure Space ETF’s 2% decline versus the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s 0.89% decline reinforces the idea that space-related stocks are experiencing greater selling pressure than the broader technology market.

Rocket Lab has its own potential catalysts, including the planned Neutron rocket and its proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications, while AST SpaceMobile is continuing to build its satellite-based cellular network. Those opportunities could give both companies substantial long-term growth potential, although today’s declines also highlight the volatility investors may encounter across the space sector.

The Next Few Sessions Could Be Crucial For SpaceX stock, the key question may be whether the additional share supply creates sustained selling pressure or is absorbed without significantly changing the market’s view of the company. Investors can watch for whether SpaceX stock stabilizes around current levels as the September 24 unlock passes, while the September 28 Starship test provides another scheduled event that could shift attention back toward operations.

The bull case remains tied to SpaceX’s Starlink business, launch capabilities and potential AI infrastructure expansion, while the bear case centers on valuation and the possibility that additional shares coming available could weigh on the stock. Investors considering SpaceX stock or other space-related names may want to keep their position sizes moderate given the combination of elevated valuations, share-supply uncertainty and substantial event-driven volatility.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Three companies tied to artificial intelligence now carry a combined valuation that dwarfs decades of American tech history, and the cash flow projections behind those numbers raise serious questions about who actually wins this bet.

The technology market has entered a period where a handful of companies can command valuations that once required an entire industry. The latest example puts today’s AI boom into extraordinary perspective: three companies associated with the technology are collectively valued at more than the combined first-day market value of thousands of U.S. technology IPOs spanning 45 years.

That comparison isn’t perfectly apples-to-apples. But it is still useful because it shows just how much capital investors are willing to place behind the possibility that artificial intelligence will become one of the most valuable technologies in history.

Three Companies, $5.2 Trillion SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) currently carries a market capitalization of almost $2.1 trillion following its June IPO. The space, AI, and technology company raised $85.7 billion in the offering and finished its first trading day with a market cap similar to its valuation today..

Privately held OpenAI is discussing a new funding round at a valuation of roughly $1.2 trillion, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from the $852 billion valuation attached to its March financing. It recently put its planned IPO on hold after the market began looking askance at the valuations of AI-forward companies.

Finally, privately held Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation of about $2 trillion for a potential IPO now anticipated in November (pushed back from an expected October debut).

This chart was put out by the Willett Advisors investment firm’s CEO, Steve Rattner:

I shows the insane valuations being attached to the leading AI stocks compared to the combined first-day market value of 3,365 U.S. technology IPOs from 1980 through 2025 at $4.07 trillion, as compiled by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter. It is a jaw-dropping comparison that pits just three companies against 3,365.

The Valuations Come With a Very Large Asterisk Yet, it is important not to confuse a fun comparison with an investment metric. Ritter’s historical figures are nominal dollars and represent companies’ market values at their trading prices on the first day following their public debut. SpaceX has a live public-market valuation, while OpenAI’s $1.2 trillion figure is a proposed private financing valuation, and Anthropic’s $2 trillion number is a prospective IPO target.

More importantly, the businesses don’t have comparable financial profiles. OpenAI, for example, projects $278 billion of negative free cash flow from 2026 through 2030, according to the Financial Times. Revenue is forecast to rise from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion in 2030, but the company expects to spend about $856 billion on computing infrastructure during that period.

Anthropic faces a similar challenge. The Information reported that it expects revenue to reach as much as $18 billion this year and $55 billion in 2027, but it has pushed back its expected transition to positive cash flow until 2028.

That makes the $5.2 trillion figure less a measure of today’s profits than a bet on tomorrow’s economics.

Three companies are now valued higher than 3,365 tech IPOs since 1980 combined. It’s a $5.2 trillion bet on the future—but the profitability math is terrifying. The AI Bubble Question Gets Harder to Ignore Ironically, that’s what makes this comparison useful for investors. The market isn’t simply valuing existing earnings. It’s capitalizing enormous expectations for future revenue, margins, and technological breakthroughs.

Yet Apollo Global Management’s chief economist Torsten Slok notes that major technology companies could need to triple their cash flow by 2030 to sustain the industry’s AI infrastructure spending. “If this doesn’t happen, then the risk is that the AI trade weakens, with credit spreads widening, capex plans getting cut and ultimately US GDP growth slowing,” he wrote to clients.

In short, investors are being asked to believe that AI’s future cash generation will eventually catch up with today’s capital requirements.

Key Takeaway The $5.2 trillion comparison is not proof that AI is a bubble. It is proof that expectations have become enormous.

Smart investors should separate the technology’s potential from the price being paid for it. A revolutionary technology can create extraordinary businesses while investors can still overpay for them. With OpenAI projecting $278 billion in negative free cash flow through 2030 and Anthropic delaying positive cash flow until 2028, profitability remains the number worth watching as these valuations move from private markets to public scrutiny.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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In politics, they say that a president's first 100 days tell you how the rest of the term will be.

Publicly traded companies have a much longer lifespan than a presidential term, but looking at their first few months on the market can be informative, especially for a high-profile company like Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX +1.89%).

SpaceX has now been a public company for 100 days, and the stock has gone on a wild ride. It soared out of the gate before losing more than 50% of its value from peak to trough in July. It's since bounced back, and closed at $154.72 on Sept. 22, about even with the $150 it opened at when it started trading on June 12.

With SpaceX's first 100 days in the books, let's take a look at what we've learned since SpaceX went public. Here's its 100-day report card.

Image source: SpaceX.

Business updates: APerhaps the most impressive part of SpaceX's first three months is that the trajectory of the business has changed substantially since it went public.

The difference between its first-quarter and second-quarter results is telling. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue growth of just 15% to $4.69 billion, and segment adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.12 billion.

However, in the second quarter, the company signed deals to rent its excess computing capacity to Anthropic and Google. Revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, and its segment adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.

In addition to the surge in AI revenue from those deals, its connectivity segment revenue jumped 66% as Starlink subscribers doubled.

CEO Elon Musk has said that he doesn't see the rental agreements as a long-term growth driver, but rather as a smart way to leverage its AI infrastructure, and a reminder that the company has multiple levers to pull to drive its growth.

Valuation: C+SpaceX's valuation has improved since its IPO, when it traded at a sky-high price-to-sales ratio of around 100. Analysts are forecasting revenue of $108 billion in 2027.

However, not all revenue is created equal. The AI compute rental revenue from Anthropic, Google, and others is comparable to what neocloud companies like CoreWeave and Nebius generate. Those companies are growing revenue at triple-digit rates but are significantly cheaper than SpaceX, especially when factoring in future growth.

Despite its EBITDA profitability, SpaceX is still losing money on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, with a loss of $541 million in the second quarter.

Investor sentiment: B+Investor fervor for SpaceX has faded after the initial hype, and the stock now seems to be trading on actual news rather than speculation.

The company went public with an unusual lockup expiration schedule, which is staggered over the year following the IPO. So far, SpaceX has had its first two tranches unlock, and the stock has skated through relatively unscathed, showing investor confidence and suggesting that insiders aren't dumping the stock. In the first release on Aug. 6, the stock actually rose 6%, as investors seemed to react favorably to a lack of downward pressure on the stock. The stock fell 4% on Aug. 20, the second tranche unlock, though it quickly recovered those losses.

Those lockups also drive a greater allocation to the Nasdaq-100, meaning ETFs that track the index, like the Invesco QQQ Trust, have to buy more of the stock, which could be a tailwind for SpaceX.

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Is SpaceX a buy?With the stock stabilizing, revenue growth dramatically accelerating, and the valuation starting to moderate, SpaceX looks more attractive than it did around the time of its IPO.

Still, with a market cap of $2 trillion, SpaceX is valued like the Magnificent Seven stocks, and many of them look like better buys by comparison. Meta Platforms, for example, has a lower market cap than SpaceX, even after its recent rally on the strength of Muse, its new AI agent.

SpaceX still has a lot to prove. I'm happy to invest in stocks like Meta, which are delivering high growth and wide margins at a reasonable valuation, and watch SpaceX from the sidelines.

The modern space race is no longer just between nations, as private companies now compete for orbital dominance. Choosing between Firefly Aerospace (FLY +2.28%) and SpaceX -- Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%)-- depends on your appetite for risk.

Firefly focuses on small- to medium-lift vehicles and lunar services, positioning itself as a flexible partner for government agencies. SpaceX operates on a much larger scale, leveraging reusable rockets and its global Starlink internet service. While both firms aim for the stars, their financial paths and market valuations differ significantly for investors in 2026.

The case for Firefly AerospaceFirefly Aerospace operates in the aerospace market, competing among defense stocks for government contracts. It focuses on the Alpha rocket for small-satellite launches and the Eclipse lunar lander for moon missions. Key customers include NASA and the U.S. Space Force, and such customer concentration adds a layer of risk to the business. The company maintains a backlog of approximately $1.4 billion and has long-term agreements with Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT -2.44%) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC -3.19%).

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $159.9 million, representing a significant increase of 163% compared to the previous year. Despite this rapid growth, the company reported a net loss of approximately $298.3 million for the same period, as the company continues to invest heavily in its flight hardware and testing facilities.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was roughly 0.3x. This ratio measures total debt relative to shareholders' equity, with lower ratios generally indicating less reliance on borrowed money. The so-called current ratio, which compares short-term assets to liabilities, was a strong 4.5x. For the FY 2025 period, free cash flow was nearly negative $237.8 million, calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from cash from operations.

The case for Space Exploration TechnologiesSpaceX provides orbital launch services and global satellite internet through its Starlink constellation. The company operates the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets and is currently developing the Starship vehicle for deep-space exploration. By March 2026, Starlink reached roughly 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. The company serves launch, human spaceflight, and global broadband markets, though it does not disclose specific customer names in its latest annual report filed for the 2025 period.

In FY 2025, revenue reached about $18.7 billion, representing approximately 33% growth over the prior year. However, the company reported a net loss of nearly $4.9 billion for the fiscal year, resulting in a negative net margin of roughly 26.4%. This performance followed a profitable FY 2024, during which the company earned net income of about $791.0 million, highlighting the high costs associated with its current expansion phase.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 0.6x. Its current ratio stood at roughly 1.4x, suggesting the company has enough liquid assets to cover its short-term obligations. Free cash flow for the FY 2025 period was nearly negative $14.0 billion. Note that stock-based compensation (SBC) accounted for roughly 29% of operating cash flow, inflating reported cash generation, since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.

Risk profile comparisonFirefly Aerospace faces a federal securities fraud class action lawsuit regarding its public disclosures, which creates ongoing legal and reputational risks. The company also deals with significant operational losses as it develops the Alpha and Eclipse vehicles. Future growth is tied to government budget appropriations and shifting spending priorities. Any disruption in federal funding or trade policy changes could materially affect its ability to execute on its current backlog.

SpaceX operates in a capital-intensive industry where any launch failure can lead to significant financial damage. The company faces increasing competition from established aerospace giants like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. Regulatory scrutiny regarding satellite constellations and orbital debris could also impact the expansion of the Starlink network. Maintaining high growth while managing the massive capital expenditures required for Starship remains a primary hurdle for the business.

Valuation comparisonFirefly appears cheaper than SpaceX as it trades at a lower multiple of sales, known as the P/S ratio. It does not have a future earnings estimates, called Forward P/E, because it is not expected to turn a profit in its coming fiscal year.

MetricFirefly AerospaceSpace Exploration TechnologiesForward P/En/a205xP/S ratio13.2x70xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?SpaceX's various businesses intend to leverage the company's core launch capabilities, starting with reusable rockets. The ability to reuse boosters significantly lowers per-launch costs and spreads fixed manufacturing costs across multiple missions. Expectations are that scaling up quickly will happen, with Wall Street analysts projecting $39 billion in sales for fiscal 2026, a much lower net loss of around $1.6 billion, and profitability in 2027.

The lack of free cash flow appears to be crushing; projections indicate free cash flow will be negative $28 billion this year, then jump to negative $67 billion in 2027.

Still, the success of Tesla Inc (TSLA +0.96%) has made founder Elon Musk the richest man in the world and raised expectations that he can make an even greater fortune from SpaceX. The business certainly has market support behind it, raising the world's largest IPO, $85.7 billion this year.

Space has a very real business in Starlink, which mitigates the possibility that grander plans won't come to fruition.

Firefly went public in an initial public offering a year ago at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.

More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to achieve a successful lunar landing, doing so in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's goal of constructing a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the SpaceX IPO has been bringing to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.

While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.

Both are exciting space businesses. The more honed focus of Firefly Aerospace is an advantage, as is its lower (though still expensive compared to all stocks) P/S ratio. One of the keys to good investing is to buy good companies at reasonable prices. Right now, Firefly presents as a stock more likely to pay off for investors over the long-term given its P/S ratio.

The engineers best positioned to judge whether SpaceX's most audacious launch tower idea was even physically possible all dismissed it immediately, and every single one of them turned out to be wrong.

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On the September 21, 2026 episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, former SpaceX engineer Tom Mueller told hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal what happened inside the company when Elon Musk first floated the idea of catching a returning Super Heavy booster with mechanical arms mounted on the launch tower instead of landing it on legs. “We all just rolled our eyes like, this is crazy. There’s just no way,” Mueller recalled. His retrospective takeaway is the line worth sitting with: Mueller now says, “If it’s possible, it’s solvable, according to SpaceX.”

The striking part is that the engineers most qualified to judge feasibility dismissed the concept on instinct, and the instinct was wrong.

What the Chopsticks Have Actually Caught Most coverage blurs an important distinction, so it is worth being precise. The catches demonstrated so far are of the Super Heavy booster, the lower stage, not the Starship upper stage.

The first one landed on October 13, 2024, when FOX Weather reported SpaceX catching the Starship booster in Mechazilla arms in a historic first. Phys.org described it as a first for the megarocket booster. The New York Times covered the same day as SpaceX advancing the Starship program with a launch and a catch in 2024, per The New York Times. collectSPACE noted it came on the fifth Starship test flight.

It was repeated on January 17, 2025, when Stars and Stripes reported that SpaceX caught the booster again but lost the Starship upper stage during the test flight. The South China Morning Post reported that SpaceX repeats the chopsticks catch while Starship exploded. Space.com reported on March 6, 2025 that SpaceX lost the Starship stage again but caught the Super Heavy booster during the Flight 8 launch. Those are the catches we can document from reporting. We have not established a complete count of every catch since.

The harder version, catching the Starship upper stage itself, is a separate goal. Teslarati reported on July 25, 2026 that SpaceX wanted to catch Starship for launch 14, per Musk. Tesla Oracle reported on July 30, 2026 that the attempt was on deck and that the preceding flight’s Ship 40 had landed precisely.

Why Public Investors Missed the Milestone A natural question for a retail investor is what SpaceX shares have done since the technique was introduced. That answer is itself instructive. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) only began trading on NASDAQ following its June 2026 IPO. Our price history for the stock begins on June 12, 2026 at $160.95. The first chopsticks catch happened in October 2024, according to The New York Times. Public shareholders never got to price that milestone. The engineering breakthrough belonged entirely to private investors, and the public market showed up after the hard part was already proven. Details on the company’s operating segments and post-IPO financials are in its August 4, 2026 8-K filing.

Where the Stock and the Company Sit Now SPCX traded at $153.61 as of 11:03 AM Eastern on September 22, 2026, up 1.16% in the session, on a roughly fifteen minute delay. Since its market debut the stock is down 4.56%, which is its entire trading history. It is up 12.15% over one month and up 3.69% over one week. Market capitalization stands at $1,182,227,721,340.

Readers who still picture a pure rocket company should update the mental model. SpaceX operates in three segments. Space covers launch services including the Falcon and Starship vehicle families and spacecraft development. Connectivity covers Starlink, the world’s largest satellite broadband constellation, serving over 12 million subscribers, plus Starshield for government customers. AI covers cloud compute infrastructure, model development including the Grok family, and the X social media platform. A share of SPCX is a claim on all three.

On the same podcast, Joe Weisenthal raised whether tariffs meant to boost American industrial production might raise costs on imported components domestic manufacturers still depend on, noting such policies can cut in both directions. He posed it as a question, and it applies to any hardware company sourcing globally.

The reason Mueller’s line lands is the credential of the people who got the call wrong. If it’s possible, it’s solvable.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Grok Bot, an advanced autonomous agent platform developed by SpaceXAI that operates under Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), has crossed 400,000 users in about a month since its launch. 

After launching on August 11, 2026, SpaceXAI’s Grok Bot reached 418,000 users as of September 14, 2026, according to a disclosure from the company’s presentation held in London that Finbold analyzed on September 22.

This AI agent platform gained significant traction over the first 30 days of its launch due to its edge in performing real work independently amid its seamless access. SpaceXAI eliminated buying friction by bundling Grok Bot directly into existing subscriptions.

SpaceXAI eliminated buying friction by bundling Grok Bot directly into existing subscriptions, such as SuperGrok’s $30 per month and Cursor developer tiers at $120 to $200 per month. Consequently, hundreds of thousands of users gained immediate access without purchasing a separate standalone application.

Impact of Grok Bot’s growth on SpaceX stock price This notable adoption of SpaceXAI’s Grok Bot is expected to have a significant impact on SpaceX’s revenue streams. On September 20, Adam Jonas, a Wall Street analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating for SpaceX stock, driven by the company’s strong position in artificial intelligence (AI) in collaboration with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA).

Due to these synergistically linked physical AI capabilities, Jonas maintained a price target for SpaceX stock at $300. As such, Morgan Stanley expects SPCX’s price to surge over 95% in the next 12 months. 

At the time of writing, 33 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks over the past three months have set a mean price target of $232.07, signaling a rally towards a new all-time high over the next 12 months.

SpaceX stock price prediction. Source: TipRanks SPCX performance  SPCX price surged above its initial public offering (IPO) as SpaceXAI’s Grok Bot gained over 400,000 users between August and September.

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold At the time of publication, SpaceX had a market capitalization of $2 trillion. Consequently, Wall Street analysts expect SPCX to rally on continued adoption of the company’s Grok Bot.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock could surge to a record high of $350 after joining the S&P 500, according to an analysis by ChatGPT.

The artificial intelligence model projects SpaceX could trade in a base-case range of $300 to $400 following S&P 500 inclusion, with $350 identified as the most likely peak under current conditions.

In a bearish scenario, the stock could reach between $200 and $250, while a bullish outcome driven by stronger execution could push shares to between $500 and $700 or higher.

SPCX stock price prediction. Source: ChatGPT ChatGPT based its outlook on expected passive inflows from S&P 500 inclusion, continued Starlink growth, Starship progress, improving profitability, and rising institutional ownership. 

The model noted that investors increasingly value SpaceX as a combination of a launch provider, satellite internet operator, defense contractor, and AI infrastructure company rather than a traditional aerospace firm.

However, ChatGPT said S&P 500 inclusion alone would not justify a record high. The company would also need sustained earnings growth, continued Starlink expansion, successful Starship execution, and supportive market conditions.

According to ChatGPT, investors increasingly view SpaceX as more than a rocket company, with exposure to satellite internet, commercial launches, defense contracts, and AI infrastructure.

The model highlighted Starlink, which operates more than 11,000 satellites and generates recurring subscription revenue, and Starship, whose planned September 28 test flight is viewed as a key long-term catalyst that could lower launch costs and unlock new commercial opportunities. Strong demand for launch services also supports SpaceX’s growth outlook.

The forecast comes as SpaceX closed the last session at $151per share after recovering from its post-IPO decline. The stock debuted at $135 during its June 2026 IPO and later climbed to a post-listing high of about $226 before retreating.

SpaceX stock S&P 500 inclusion  Despite its size and market prominence, SpaceX is not currently eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500.

To qualify, the company must complete at least 12 months as a publicly traded company, maintain positive GAAP earnings over the trailing four quarters, and meet liquidity and free-float requirements.

Earlier in 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices considered changing its rules to accelerate inclusion for large IPOs such as SpaceX. However, the proposal was rejected, delaying any potential entry into the benchmark index.

As things stand, SpaceX is unlikely to qualify before mid-2027, assuming it satisfies all eligibility criteria.

The company has nevertheless gained entry into other major indexes such as the Nasdaq-100 in July 2026 and the Russell 1000. 

Notably, an S&P 500 inclusion could trigger roughly $10 billion in passive inflows as index-tracking funds and ETFs buy the stock. Such demand could support higher prices, particularly if SpaceX’s free float remains limited.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +1.19%) went public a few months ago, and while it may be known for its rockets and plans to send people to Mars, the company's artificial intelligence (AI) business is what's driving its growth right now. The company has been securing deals involving AI compute power, and that's been a key way the business, which also goes by just SpaceX, plans to get to an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of this year.

The massive growth that SpaceX is experiencing right now is primarily due to AI. Here's a look at just how big analysts expect the AI segment to get by 2030.

Image source: Getty Images.

Analysts expect $275 billion in annual AI revenue from SpaceX by the end of the decadeMassive growth is what investors and analysts expect from SpaceX. That's why, despite a lack of profitability, its valuation is around $2 trillion. Investors are paying a colossal premium for the business based on how big and profitable it might get in the future, with space, AI, and its Starlink internet business all being possible growth machines for the overall business.

In the company's most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, SpaceX's AI revenue totaled $2.6 billion, translating into an annual run rate of about $10.2 billion. But by 2027, Wall Street expects the company's AI revenue to top $67 billion. And by 2030, the revenue is forecasted to reach an incredible $275 billion. This is just the company's AI business, but it's a fast-growing one and likely to be its largest segment in the future. Its connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, generated $4.3 billion last quarter and was still its largest for now; the space business generated $962 million.

SpaceX's revenue growth looks promising, but profitability remains a bigger question markThere's little doubt that SpaceX's business will get much bigger than where it is today. CEO Elon Musk previously projected that the company might generate as much as $1 trillion by 2030. However, that doesn't appear likely unless the AI business becomes far larger than what analysts expect or the other business units grow at even faster rates. Nonetheless, there's ample growth on the horizon for SpaceX.

What shouldn't be overlooked, however, is profitability. Growth is great, but the most valuable companies in the world are also producing significant profits. SpaceX remains unprofitable, and if it's to remain a top growth stock, it'll likely need much stronger numbers on the bottom line. Its net loss last quarter was $541 million. Although that was an improvement from the $1 billion loss it incurred a year ago, it still has a long way to go to get to breakeven. And with the company spending heavily on AI, its losses may potentially increase in the future, which could make this a bit of a risky growth stock to own.

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The stock is promising, but it's also incredibly overvaluedSpaceX's growth potential is what captivates investors. But if the space company isn't able to also generate significant profits, then its valuation may inevitably fall lower, especially if it needs to constantly raise capital to fund its expensive growth opportunities.

At $2 trillion, SpaceX is the only stock in the trillion-dollar club that isn't profitable. That's why I don't believe it belongs there, and why it could be vulnerable to a significant decline in the future. The stock is still new and exciting, but I don't expect it to stay at such a high valuation. With plenty of downside risk, SpaceX is a stock that I think many investors are better off steering clear of, at least until it can show a path to profitability.

There's a rush to secure flights as SpaceX winds down its flagship vehicle and rivals try to ramp up.

SpaceX's historic IPO cratered by nearly a third, yet 28 Wall Street analysts refuse to downgrade it. The question is whether the bull case rests on transformative compounding or on contracts that expire in 90 days.

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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) currently trades at $152.71 against a Wall Street average price target of $222.42, an implied gap of roughly 45.65%.

SpaceX has grown into three businesses in one. Starlink is now the cash engine, the AI segment is scaling into a hyperscaler-adjacent business, and Starship is the moonshot funded by both. That combination is why the largest IPO in American history is also its most polarizing stock.

Morgan Stanley argues the market is mispricing what SpaceX has already built.

A Trillion-Dollar IPO That Lost a Third of Its Value in Weeks SpaceX priced its June IPO near a $2 trillion valuation, then fell by roughly a third as a 4-5% public float whipsawed trading.

Reddit sentiment shifted sharply. One July thread titled “Short sellers notch $15.5 billion profit as SpaceX shares slide” captured the mood, and by early August, wallstreetbets was circulating “SpaceX will plummet on 8/6” ahead of the first earnings report.

The August 4 earnings report left the stock under pressure. Revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA climbed 191%, yet SpaceX sold off because a 911.5M share unlock loomed the next day. SpaceX spent $18.37B on capex that quarter, with $15.83B going to AI compute.

Why Morgan Stanley and 28 Buy Ratings Have Not Budged The bull case rests on Starlink plus AI compounding into something the market has not yet priced. Management guided to a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December, with cloud services now the largest contributor. Bret said this outcome was “not a question mark” under current assumptions.

The AI segment posted $2.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 247% year over year. SpaceX added $6.7 billion of cloud-services contracts in early Q3 and hit 1.4 gigawatts of compute capacity, targeting above 2 gigawatts by year-end. The power, cooling, and networking suppliers standing behind that kind of buildout are the subject of a free report on seven AI infrastructure names that aren’t the chipmakers everyone already owns.

Starlink added 1.7 million net subscribers, reached 167 markets, and Elon argued the V3 satellite could deliver a two-order-of-magnitude bandwidth jump. Even with monetization per bit falling, he said revenue could still grow 10x. Enterprise revenue alone grew 108% year over year.

The analyst posture reflects that setup. Coverage breaks down as 6 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 5 Hold, 2 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell, and a widely shared Reddit post carried the Barron’s-style headline “SpaceX’s Stock Is Whipsawing Around Its IPO Price. Morgan Stanley Says It’s ‘Attractively Valued.'” Recent revisions have leaned toward reiteration rather than downgrade despite the drawdown.

Rocket Lab Is the Only Real Public Comp, and It Is Also Down SpaceX and its closest public peer sold off together, but for different reasons. Starlink and Grok have no direct listed equivalents, so Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is the closest launch comparison.

Rocket Lab trades at $64.57, down 14.86% over the past month and 7.44% year to date, though still up 36.86% over one year. Coverage skews Buy with a mildly positive revision trend, but the analyst-implied upside from consensus is smaller than the roughly 46% gap Wall Street sees on SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile and Iridium round out the thinly populated peer group, but neither offers a comparable business mix.

Numbers That Show Why the Gap Is Real SpaceX currently trades at $152.71, up 9.35% over the past month but well below the 52-week high of $225.64. Against a consensus target of $222.42 from 35 covering analysts, that leaves 45.65% of implied upside.

Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up 11.7% year to date and 15.01% over one year. SPCX has trailed both by wide margins since listing.

Valuation still commands a premium. Alpha Vantage lists a forward P/E of 204 and a price-to-sales of 87, on TTM EPS of -$1.1. Prediction markets are more cautious near term, assigning 0.44 probability to a weekly close above $155.

Why I Lean Cautiously Long on SPCX The bull thesis holds if you believe Starlink’s cash generation can fund Starship and AI capex without serial dilution, and that the AI segment’s 247% growth is durable rather than a pull-forward from short-dated contracts. The path back to $222 runs through the December $100 billion run-rate goal, V3 Starlink satellites hitting critical mass around Q2 next year, and Cursor closing without integration drama.

The bear thesis holds if you think the AI premium, estimated by one analysis at roughly $1 trillion of the valuation, is built on 90-day-terminable cloud deals and a company that lost $541M last quarter while spending $15.8 billion on GPUs. A $5 billion full-year loss and a razor-thin float make future secondary offerings feel inevitable.

Analyst targets are one data point among many. But when 28 of 35 covering analysts still rate the largest IPO in American history a Buy after a 32% drawdown, that dislocation deserves attention. I lean cautiously long, sized small, with the Q3 report as the decisive catalyst.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways SpaceX's Flight 14 aims to complete a full Earth orbit and deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites.Starlink provides recurring revenues and cash to help fund SpaceX's rockets, satellites and technologies.SpaceX's AI compute revenues surged 247% YoY in Q2, but heavy capital spending and valuation remain concerns. SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) is heading toward another important milestone as it targets Sept. 28 for Starship Flight 14, after pushing the launch back six days from the original Sept. 22 target. While launch delays are nothing new for the company, this mission could represent a meaningful step forward. Unlike previous Starship flights, Flight 14 is designed to attempt a full orbit around Earth and deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites.

Starship Could Unlock a Big Growth EngineStarship's significance extends well beyond another test flight. SpaceX is developing the rocket as a fully reusable launch system capable of carrying substantially more payload at potentially lower costs. If the company can eventually achieve reliable, high-frequency launches, Starship could expand the economics of the space industry while strengthening SpaceX's position in commercial and government launches.

The upcoming mission is important as it is intended to demonstrate orbital operations and deploy Starlink V3 satellites. These satellites are expected to substantially increase network capacity, potentially supporting continued growth in Starlink's broadband business.

Still, investors should remember that Starship remains a development program. Hardware readiness, regulatory approvals, technical setbacks and launch delays could continue to push timelines out. A successful Flight 14 would therefore be an important milestone, but not proof that Starship has reached commercial maturity.

Starlink Provides the Financial FoundationStarlink remains the more established part of the SpaceX story. The satellite broadband business has expanded rapidly across international markets and gives SpaceX a recurring-revenue business alongside its more speculative ventures.

The continued rollout of higher-capacity satellite generations could further improve network economics and allow SpaceX to serve more customers and offer higher-value services. Starlink's established customer base provides a source of cash that can help fund SpaceX's ambitious investments in rockets, satellites and other technologies.

This diversification makes the SpaceX story different from that of a pure-play space company. Starlink is already a commercially profitable business, while Starship represents a potentially much larger future opportunity.

AI Adds Another Layer to the StorySpaceX is also positioning itself around artificial intelligence infrastructure. Its computing business is securing multi-year agreements with major AI giants Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Anthropic.

AI revenues jumped 247.5% year over year to $2.56 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Compute revenues reached $2.6 billion (+247% YoY). The segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the last reported quarter, reversing from a $276 million loss a year ago. Management expects compute capacity to exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end and 10 gigawatts by 2027 end.

That said, the AI opportunity also requires significant capital investment and faces intense competition. Its long-term contribution will depend on SpaceX's ability to scale capacity while maintaining attractive economics.

The Investment Case Comes With RisksThe biggest attraction is also the biggest challenge. SpaceX is pursuing several capital-intensive businesses simultaneously. Starship, Starlink and AI infrastructure all require substantial investment, while execution remains critical.

Second-quarter 2026 capital expenditures were approximately $18.4 billion, including about $15.8 billion for AI compute infrastructure. Management expects the next two quarters to remain near the second-quarter spending level. The company generated $3.54 billion of adjusted EBITDA but still reported a $541 million net loss. 

Investors must also consider valuation. SpaceX's valuation already reflects significant expectations for future growth across these businesses. The company carries a Value Score of F. That means even strong operational progress may not automatically translate into attractive returns as the valuation assumes near-perfect execution.

Our TakeFlight 14 could become an important catalyst for SpaceX, particularly if Starship successfully reaches orbit and deploys Starlink V3 satellites. But the broader investment thesis rests on much more than one launch.

Starlink provides an established commercial foundation, Starship offers a potentially transformative opportunity in launch economics, and AI infrastructure adds another high-growth avenue. The combination creates significant long-term potential, but execution, capital requirements and valuation remain important considerations. As such, this isn’t the right time to buy SPCX shares. But existing shareholders can stay invested for the long haul.

SPCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a loss of 15 cents per share for SpaceX in 2026, followed by earnings of $1.63 per share in 2027, pointing to a sharp turnaround.

SpaceX (SPCX +3.00%) went public in June at the largest IPO valuation in history, and investors who bought on day one and held are underwater. That's not to say that SpaceX isn't a solid long-term investment, but SpaceX's IPO price action contains some valuable lessons about what often happens when a business everyone wants to own finally becomes available.

AI model giant Anthropic is reportedly aiming to break SpaceX's record. The developer of the Claude family of AI tools could list on public markets as soon as October, at a valuation of $2 trillion or more.

Image source: Getty Images.

To be fair, there's a lot to like about Anthropic's long-term potential. But it's important to take a step back and consider what the SpaceX IPO taught is, and how to apply those lessons to the next mega-IPO.

SpaceX's IPO price actionSpaceX went public at a valuation exceeding $1.7 trillion and a share price of $135. But that's not what most retail investors paid. On day one, SpaceX opened significantly higher than $135 and traded as high as $176.52 during the day.

This was just the beginning of a multi-day rally. A few days after going public, SpaceX peaked at more than $225 per share and, at one point, was even more valuable than Microsoft (MSFT -0.04%). Unfortunately, the rally faded fast. The stock lost almost all of its post-IPO rally within a couple of weeks. It traded significantly below its IPO price for several weeks and has since rebounded a bit. But at about $153, most people who bought SpaceX shares when it first went public are currently in the red.

3 important lessons to learnOf course, not all IPO stocks are the same, and there's absolutely no guarantee Anthropic's shares would follow the same pattern. But there are still some valuable lessons for investors:

First, stocks (even the most popular ones) don't always trade higher than their IPO price. A stock's IPO price is simply what institutional buyers are willing to pay for an allocation. It is largely a function of demand and is not necessarily about the value of the business itself.

Second, supply matters, and lockup calendars are worth paying attention to. Typically, insiders are prohibited from selling shares of an IPO within the first 180 days. SpaceX used a complex and unusual lockup expiration, and shares were certainly under pressure before the first tranche of shares became available to sell.

Third, and most importantly, there's no need to get in right away. Even if you believe that Anthropic will be worth several times its IPO value over the long term. Waiting until the dust settles after the IPO allows you to invest at a price determined by the entire market, not just initial hype and supply/demand dynamics.

Here's what I'm watchingI recently wrote an article about the important numbers I'll be watching when Anthropic's S-1 drops, but here's the quick version:

Revenue quality: Anthropic has a reported annual revenue run rate of about $65 billion, but the audited financials will show actual recognized revenue for full periods, which can differ materially.

Commitments: Anthropic has committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars (that it doesn't have yet) with hyperscalers and chipmakers. These are fixed obligations, and we'll know exactly how large the total is when the S-1 hits.

Customer concentration: How much of Anthropic's enterprise revenue is concentrated among its largest customers, especially those that are also investors in the business (most hyperscalers are).

The bottom lineThe point here is not that mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic are bad investments. The first few days they trade publicly aren't always the best time to buy for a long-term hold, as the price is largely set by demand and hype rather than business fundamentals. Using the S-1 to form an actual valuation estimate and waiting until the initial hype dies down before deciding whether to buy is often a smart approach.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock has managed to gain nearly 12% so far in September, trading at $152, comfortably above the initial public offering price (IPO) of $135 on June 11. With SpaceX share unlocks approaching, however, investors are trying to predict how the price will move early in October. 

Namely, the debut placed about 639 million shares into public circulation, roughly 4.9% of the total float. The number is expected to reach 22.6% on October 9 after climbing to 20.1% on September 24.

As new shares entering the market can potentially impact SpaceX prices, we asked OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT, to predict SpaceX stock price after the October 9 share unlock.

Notably, the chatbot’s prediction for October 9 sees SPCX shares trading roughly in the $ 145-160 range in the base case. This suggests the price could drop or climb 5% from the current levels, and ChatGPT actually singled out $150 as the most likely target, implying a slight 1.32% dip.

ChatGPT predicts SpaceX stock price after October SPCX share unlock. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT

Of course, the forecast is a scenario-based estimate rather than a definitive price target, as the amount of shares actually sold following the unlock remains uncertain. Under a stronger-demand scenario, for example, ChatGPT sees SPCX potentially reaching $165-$175, while heavier selling could push the stock toward $130-$142. A more severe risk-off scenario could send shares as low as $115-$125.

ChatGPT also noted that SpaceX is expected to make up 2.82% of the NASDAQ 100 after quarterly rebalancing, which could counterweigh selling pressure. The interaction between newly unlocked shares and NASDAQ moves could, therefore, be an important factor in determining SPCX’s direction around the event.

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Investors who bought SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) during the stock’s steep post-IPO decline have seen a swift turnaround in recent weeks.

After falling more than 50% from its June record high, SpaceX shares bottomed at $108 in August before recovering steadily as concerns surrounding a major lock-up expiration eased and confidence in the company’s long-term growth prospects returned.

With the stock trading at $152 as of press time, a $1,000 investment made at the August low would now be worth approximately $1,407, delivering a gain of about 41% in less than two months.

SpaceX stock price chart. Source: Finbold SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history in June 2026, pricing shares at $135 before beginning trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12.

The stock opened near $150 and quickly rallied to an all-time high of $225 on June 16. The surge was driven by strong investor demand, a limited public float representing only about 4% of the company’s shares, and optimism surrounding Starlink, Starship, and SpaceX’s artificial intelligence initiatives.

Why SPCX stock sold off  However, the momentum proved short-lived. By early August, shares had fallen below their IPO price after a sharp post-listing sell-off.

The decline intensified after SpaceX reported its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. 

Although revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, the company disclosed capital expenditures of $18.37 billion during the quarter, equal to 235% of revenue. 

Most of that spending was directed toward AI infrastructure, raising concerns about cash flow despite continued profitability from Starlink.

Investor sentiment was also weighed down by the company’s first major lock-up expiration on August 6, when up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale.

The expected surge in selling following the lock-up release failed to materialize at the scale many market participants anticipated.

Instead, investor demand proved strong enough to absorb the additional supply, helping stabilize the stock. Institutional ownership also provided support as several major investors disclosed significant positions in the company.

At the same time, SpaceX continued to report progress across its core businesses. Growth in the Starlink subscriber base and ongoing advances in the Starship program helped reinforce confidence in the company’s long-term outlook despite elevated spending levels.

Although SpaceX remains well below its all-time high, the recovery has restored a significant portion of the losses suffered during the summer sell-off.

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Elon Musk just set a bandwidth target for Starlink's next satellite generation that would make today's network look primitive, and he put a deadline on when it rewrites global internet infrastructure.

On the August 4, 2026 earnings call, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) chief executive Elon Musk predicted Starlink could carry the bulk of global internet traffic within 10 years, driven by a next-generation satellite that multiplies delivered bandwidth dramatically.

This morning, in a post on X, he expanded on just how big that could be:

“Connectivity per sat will be more like 10Tb in both directions and there is a path to 100+Tb. Each sat is 250kW and will have a SpaceX-designed Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 computer.”

An Orders of Magnitude Bandwidth Claim In the conference call, Musk framed Starlink V3 as a step change. “The Starlink V3 satellite is about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite, which is already a very capable satellite,” he said. SpaceX expects “to launch about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites. That would mean a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.”

The revenue implication: “Even if our monetization per bit drops by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10x increase in the revenue of Starlink.” Each Gen3 satellite targets roughly 10 terabits per second bidirectional, with a path to more than 100 Tbps, with an FCC filing covering up to 100,000 Gen3 satellites accepted for filing in mid-September 2026 but not yet approved.

Majority of the World’s Internet, Under 10 Years Asked how big Starlink could get, Musk went further than in prior calls. “It’s not out of the question that at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world’s internet. At least in countries where we’re allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries,” he said. “And it’s not in the infinity future. It’s less than 10 years.”

He tied the demand side to machine traffic: “With the advent of AI and humanoid robotics and vehicle robotics and just a massive number of robots, the app type of bandwidth will be much greater than it has been in the past.”

Numbers Behind the Talk The Q2 2026 financials give the vision some grounding. Total revenue reached $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, with the connectivity segment contributing $4.3 billion, up 66% year over year. Starlink added more than 1.7 million net consumer subscribers, its best quarter ever, while ARPU held at $66 per month. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108% year over year, boosted by new deals with American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Southwest (NYSE:LUV), Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, and Aer Lingus and over $6 billion in multi-year Space Force Starshield contracts.

Musk credited execution: “In order to secure a large amount of enterprise revenue, you have to demonstrate a very high reliability, very high uptime. And in the early days, Starlink did not have high uptime.” President Gwynne Shotwell noted Starlink “has never lost an enterprise customer.”

What to Watch Management said a critical mass of about 1,000 V3 satellites is needed before service improvements become significant, expected by approximately the second quarter of next year. Musk told analysts, “A year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day and possibly more.” SPCX shares closed at $152.71 on September 18, up 9.35% over the past month.

If achieved, 10 Tbps (and especially a path to 100+ Tbps) per satellite would transform Starlink from a high-capacity broadband network into something capable of carrying a meaningful fraction of global internet traffic and supporting next-generation AI and industrial applications from orbit. It is one of the most aggressive capacity targets publicly stated for any satellite system.

Still, this remains a forward-looking claim. The FCC application for the large Gen3 constellation is still under review, and actual on-orbit performance, spectrum access, ground infrastructure, and Starship launch cadence will determine how much of the 10 Tbps (or 100 Tbps) vision is realized. Earlier V3 numbers were closer to 1 Tbps downlink; the jump to 10 Tbps bidirectional is ambitious.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Space WatchChinese space-technology players are looking to grow their reach, experts say. They’re closing in on Elon Musk and company.Updated

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While SpaceX prepares to put its Starship rocket in orbit for the first time, foreign countries including China are looking to develop their own technology to rival Elon Musk’s company.

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Recent IPOs tend to be volatile for several reasons, including the fact that once a company goes public, insiders aren't allowed to sell their shares for a set period, called the lockup period. Once they are free to sell, whether they do so in droves or largely refrain can either sink or jolt the stock. That brings us to Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.36%), the space company that beat the record for the largest IPO in history back in June. SpaceX set up a staggered insider share unlock, meaning shares owned by the company's insiders would become eligible for sale on different dates.

The first was on Aug. 6, and there have been several since; SpaceX passed that test with flying colors. However, hundreds of millions more shares will become eligible for sale by insiders by year-end, including 342 million on Dec. 8. How will the stock react to that? Here are three things for investors to watch to try to answer that question.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

1. The most important flight test yet What determines whether insiders decide to sell their shares once they are free to do so? That's a complicated question. Personal circumstances aside, though, insiders' outlook for the company can matter a lot. That's why paying attention to SpaceX's operational and financial progress over the next three months could provide clues as to what may happen after more shares become available for sale.

And one of the most important aspects of the business to pay attention to is Starship, the company's next-gen rocket. SpaceX is developing Starship to be fully reusable. This rocket also has a larger payload capacity than the company's previous models, including Falcon 9. SpaceX is planning to conduct Starship's 14th flight test as soon as Sept. 28, pending regulatory approval.

This isn't just another flight test. As the rocket company argues, in previous flight tests, Starship has followed suborbital trajectories to help SpaceX gather data and make improvements as needed. But this time, it will actually attempt to go into orbit. Starship is the centerpiece of some of SpaceX's ambitions, including the planned expansion of its Starlink connectivity business and its goals of sending AI satellites into orbit. If Starship fails its 14th flight test, the stock could drop sharply, potentially denting insiders' expectations for the future.

2. Will SpaceX sign more AI contracts? SpaceX itself argues that its largest opportunities by far are in the AI industry, where it has identified a massive $26.5 trillion total addressable market. The company's progress in this industry could tell us a lot about its future. Recently, SpaceX's CFO, Bret Johnsen, announced that the company has signed a new AI compute deal worth about $1.11 billion per month.

SpaceX signed several other -- and bigger -- deals earlier this year, and it will be interesting to see whether the company can secure more over the next three months. If it succeeds, SpaceX's medium-term prospects would improve, and perhaps fewer insiders would have an incentive to sell their shares.

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3. Watch out for third-quarter results SpaceX's second-quarter results were strong. Notably, revenue grew by 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, and the company's net loss fell from $1 billion in Q2 2025 to $541 million, a significant improvement, even as it continues to pour billions into its AI-related ambitions. Many analysts expect SpaceX's bottom line to turn positive in the upcoming third quarter.

The space company has an average revenue projection of $12.84 billion (according to Yahoo! Finance) and an average earnings-per-share estimate of $0.14. But what if revenue grows more slowly than expected, or SpaceX remains unprofitable as it invests even more into AI than analysts expect? The stock could decline significantly, especially given its current valuation metrics. SpaceX is trading at 204x forward earnings.

Should you buy the stock? One thing is for sure: We'll know more about SpaceX's prospects by the end of the year. If the company can post excellent financial results, secure more AI compute deals, and successfully complete Starship's flight test 14, not only could SpaceX's shares soar, but it could also strengthen insiders' confidence in the business's future, potentially reducing selling pressure after lockup expiry dates.

So, there is massive upside potential over the next three months and over the long run if SpaceX can execute flawlessly. But it is profoundly difficult to predict these things (including whether insiders will sell in droves), so there is plenty of downside risk, especially given valuation concerns. I wouldn't buy SpaceX at current levels, but those who do should brace for volatile times ahead.