It's been nearly two months since Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -3.41%), commonly known as SpaceX, went public. Despite an initial surge in interest (and share price), the stock has badly underperformed the market. Shares of SpaceX stock are down more than 51% from their highs.
However, two other high-tech stocks made their market debuts around the same time as SpaceX, and they've actually fared just as badly.
Here's why SpaceX, despite being down 51%, managed to outperform recent nuclear IPO X-Energy (XE -4.34%) (down almost 55%) and is only doing a bit worse than Standard Nuclear (STDN +3.82%) (down 45.5%). Let's also look at which stock is likeliest to recover.
Image source: Getty Images.
Times are tough all over SpaceX is outperforming most of the small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear industry.
SMR stocks had a fantastic 2025. They soared to massive valuations thanks to President Donald Trump's new nuclear-friendly policies. But new ideas -- especially those involving radioactive material -- take time to implement. Even with the Trump administration's Department of Energy (DOE) prioritizing the deployment of new reactors, most SMR companies aren't even in the prototype testing phase for their revolutionary reactor designs.
Shares of SMR companies Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE -4.62%), Oklo (OKLO -5.50%), and NuScale Power (SMR -2.09%) are down 74%, 80%, and 85%, respectively, from their early October highs. The more recent nuclear IPOs have fared much better, with X-Energy down "only" 54.7% and Standard Nuclear down "just" 45.3%.
So, are the recent IPOs better buys?
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
The new shiny stock It's possible that the new IPOs simply haven't had as much time to drop as the more established stocks. If we measure all these stocks' performances from SpaceX's IPO date of June 12, SpaceX actually goes from being the best performer to almost the worst.
All of these stocks are dependent on the success of an emerging industry -- routine spaceflight, SMR-based power plants, orbital AI data centers -- that will take time to develop. Success will be measured in years, not weeks, and it's definitely not a guarantee.
That makes it tough to pick a potential winner. All of these stocks seem overpriced given how speculative they are. Plus, it's not usually a good idea to buy a recent IPO until it releases at least a few quarters' worth of earnings reports to inform your thesis. Risk-averse investors should steer clear of them all.
But if I had to buy one of these new IPOs, I'd probably go with Standard Nuclear.
Today's Change
(
3.82
%) $
0.29
Current Price
$
7.89
Its current market cap of $1.2 billion seems the least overpriced, given its proposed business model of enriching nuclear fuels for SMR companies. Management claims $245 million in (mostly unfunded) backlog and a (non-binding) deal with Oklo to provide fuel, as well as $124.9 million in cash on the balance sheet. Plus, it's been working with the DOE on various projects, including the well-funded Prometheus project.
That said, the smartest move for investors right now is probably just to wait.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%), better known as SpaceX, has seen its stock price tumble since it made its market debut in June. After climbing to more than $200 per share shortly after its initial public offering (IPO), the stock now trades at about $108 (as of July 31).
Most investors knew the stock price of the unprofitable, capital-intensive business would be volatile once it started trading, and that volatility doesn't appear to be going away. Wall Street analysts see a huge move in SpaceX's stock price by next summer, according to their price targets. Here's what investors can expect.
Image source: Getty Images.
How much will SpaceX be worth in 2027? The median price target for SpaceX stock among 37 Wall Street analysts is $225 per share. That implies an investment in the shares could more than double by mid-2027.
Some of the reasons for the overall bullish stance on SpaceX include its leading position in space launch technology, which is unlikely to be matched by competitors anytime soon. That enables it to launch rockets at a lower cost and more frequently than anyone else, which should enable it to scale its Starlink telecommunications business, where competing satellite companies have struggled.
The prospect of SpaceX developing orbital data centers also has many analysts excited, as it presents a huge total addressable market. SpaceX is already capitalizing on demand for AI compute with its terrestrial data centers, signing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet ahead of its IPO.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
Additionally, analysts seem to have increased their price targets simply because Elon Musk is running the company. Not only does Musk attract retail investors, but he also holds an impressive track record of successfully commercializing advanced technology.
On the other hand, sell-side analysts are normally an optimistic group. What's more, a handful of those price targets come from analysts working for the investment banks that underwrote the SpaceX IPO. And while their analysis is separate from the underwriting activity, it's hard to see how their employers' participation in the IPO doesn't influence their analyses.
In other words, take the median price target with a grain of salt.
Can SpaceX double by next year? While it's certainly possible for SpaceX shares to reach $225 or more by mid-2027 -- after all, it briefly touched that level in June -- a few factors are working against the stock.
First is the lockup expirations set to introduce additional shares to the market. SpaceX issued less than 5% of its total shares in its IPO. Insiders and early investors hold the rest. And with the huge increase in the company's value during the past few years, those early investors will be free to sell as soon as their lockups expire.
The first opportunity for pre-IPO shareholders to sell their stock will come on Aug. 6, two days after SpaceX's first earnings report. The lockup expiration could be a bigger test than the earnings release.
For the most part, SpaceX is valued based on its potential well into the future. Market dynamics could play an even bigger role in the share price in the near term. Investors will get their first glimpse at whether the market can absorb an influx of shares in just a few days.
There are more lockup expirations in the coming months. Select investors and Musk have lockups that won't expire until mid-2027. As such, constant selling pressure could weigh on the stock price during the next year.
Additionally, consider the valuation. Despite their decline in price since the IPO, SpaceX shares still trade for about 75 times sales (SpaceX isn't profitable so price-to-sales is the appropriate metric). Analysts expect sales to get a big boost from leasing out compute capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet, but the stock price is still very expensive.
Lastly, SpaceX's need to raise capital could hang over the stock. Morgan Stanley estimates the company won't produce positive free cash flow until 2035. What's more, it probably will burn about $700 billion in capital before it gets there. That makes SpaceX particularly reliant on the debt market to raise additional capital in the future. If interest rates rise, the cost of capital will increase, further weighing on the stock price.
Overall, I'm not nearly as optimistic that SpaceX will reach the levels predicted by Wall Street. That said, it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) has now fallen roughly 50% from its high, sinking to an all-time low. Bargain hunters are circling, and I understand the temptation. But with money to put to work this August, I would rather own a growth story I have far more conviction in: Cava Group (CAVA -1.82%).
SpaceX's slide is worth a quick look. The stock popped after its June debut, then unwound as the initial hype faded, and it now trades below its offering price at a record low. The timing adds pressure: SpaceX reports its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4, and a large batch of previously restricted shares is set to unlock on Aug. 6, flooding the market with new supply just as sentiment is shaky.
The business is not broken, but the stock still carries an enormous valuation resting on Starship and orbital ambitions that are years from proving out. That is too much uncertainty for my money right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why I'd rather buy Cava Cava runs a fast-growing chain of Mediterranean restaurants, and its momentum has been remarkable. Sales at established locations have been climbing at a healthy clip, driven more by more customers walking through the doors than by higher prices, which is the healthiest kind of growth a restaurant can post. Even better is the runway ahead. Cava is opening dozens of new restaurants a year, recently raised its opening target, and is marching toward a goal of 1,000 locations by the end of the decade.
Crucially, it is doing all this profitably, so each new restaurant tends to strengthen the company rather than drain it. With its own quarterly report due later in August, there is a near-term catalyst too. To me, a beloved, profitable brand with a long, self-funding growth path is a far more dependable place to compound money than a space stock betting on technology that keeps slipping.
Today's Change
(
-1.82
%) $
-1.21
Current Price
$
65.23
The risk worth naming Cava is not cheap, and it's faced some recent volatility. After a strong run, a lot of its future growth is already reflected in the stock, so any slowdown in traffic or a stumble in new-store openings could hit shares hard. A weaker consumer could also pressure restaurant spending. This is a growth stock, with the volatility that label implies.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
SpaceX, down 50%, will tempt plenty of investors, and it might reward the patient. But it remains a pricey, unproven wager with a share-unlock overhang. Cava is a proven, profitable, rapidly expanding brand with years of growth ahead. For August, I would rather buy the restaurant chain quietly filling its dining rooms than gamble on the beaten-down rocket stock. Just size it as the growth stock it is.
Next Tuesday, Aug. 4, is going to be a big day in the stock market. The IPO stock Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) will report its first earnings as a public company. Investors are expecting massive growth and guidance from the Elon Musk enterprise, which was the largest IPO in history earlier this year.
There is also the flood of unlocked insider shares about to hit the market, which could cause even more volatility for shareholders. Here's the skinny on the upcoming earnings report, the post-IPO dynamics, and whether SpaceX stock could be a buy for long-term investors today.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
SpaceX's massive expectations When SpaceX reports earnings, investors will be looking at the continued progress of its space and artificial intelligence (AI) endeavors. Importantly, investors care about the growth of the Starlink satellite internet business, which is supposed to be the major cash cow in the next few years. In 2025, this segment grew revenue 50% year over year with impressive profit margins.
There are also expectations of accelerated growth from the AI infrastructure business, which generated only $3.2 billion in revenue last year, including advertising sales from X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. With major deals signed with the likes of Anthropic and Alphabet to sell AI compute at its data centers, SpaceX should begin to see growth accelerate this quarter, with expectations for even greater AI gains in the years ahead.
All told, investors are expecting second-quarter revenues of $6.9 billion, representing 68% year-over-year growth. However, for Wall Street analysts, this is where the growth party just gets started. Revenue growth across the entire business is expected to be around 100% for all of 2026 and 2027, leading 2027 revenues to balloon to $80 billion, up from $18.7 billion in 2025.
Image source: Getty Images.
A lockup period and short-term volatility Along with this earnings report, investors should be mindful of the upcoming end of the SpaceX IPO lockup period. A large chunk of shares is set to be unlocked on Aug. 6, two days after the report. These are insiders, not Elon Musk, who have held their shares privately for many years and are now collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
What is likely to happen in the months ahead is a flood of sell orders from these insiders, who are generally professional investors looking to send gains back to their partners. For a stock with a market cap of $1.5 trillion, this stream of sell orders could push the share price down. This is what typically happens after an IPO, and it's why the average IPO stock underperforms the market in the year following its debut.
Should you buy SpaceX stock before earnings? For any investor looking to buy the dip on SpaceX -- shares are down 44% from highs -- it is important to understand this lockup period dynamic when making any investment decision. However, what will matter most over the long term is SpaceX's fundamental business growth, and the price you pay for it today.
Wall Street expectations for 100% revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027 are massive and would be a huge acceleration from 2025 growth. There is a potential for SpaceX to resell AI data center computing power that is not being used for its research and the Grok chatbot, but the question is what profit margins this reselling to hyperscalers will yield. I think low.
Starlink is a great business, but it generated just $11.4 billion in revenue last year, while SpaceX has a market cap of $1.5 trillion. I think the massive expectations of SpaceX's growth, along with this lockup period, are going to lead to a sinking stock price for the rest of 2026. This makes the stock one to avoid before earnings. Keep it on the watch list for now, and buy at a much lower price in the years ahead if you like the business quality.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) was the initial public offering (IPO) in history, collecting more than $86 billion, or more than double the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019.
However, the stock's trajectory since then hasn't been quite as promising as investors had hoped. After hitting a high of $225 a week after the IPO on June 20, the stock is down 50% from that price.
Is this an opportunity to buy the stock on the dip? Cathie Wood thinks so. Her company, Ark Invest, has been scooping up shares of the beleaguered stock lately. Should you follow her lead?
Why Cathie Wood loves SpaceX Wood was praising SpaceX well before it went public. She offered it to investors pre-IPO through her private equity fund, the Ark Venture Fund, which also provides access to other private companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Stripe.
In a commentary posted on the Ark Invest website, Wood's company has praised SpaceX as the "critical unlock for the space economy" because it is perfecting the reusable rocket, and costs continue to decline as the technology improves.
SpaceX anticipates sending tens of thousands of rockets into low Earth orbit over the next few years, and Ark sees accelerating broadband capacity as giving SpaceX the potential for "hundreds of billions of dollars in gross profit by 2030."
This is likely why SpaceX's astronomical valuation doesn't bother her. Even at today's lower price, SpaceX stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 77, higher than the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 on a price-to-sales basis, Palantir Technologies, at 57. And Palantir is highly profitable, while SpaceX is reporting high losses.
If it can indeed generate massive gross profit by 2030, it should be able to carry a high premium.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
Is it time to buy SpaceX stock? Wood loves disruptive tech stocks, which she sees as driving the future. She was an early Tesla fan and clearly admires Elon Musk for his vision and technical execution.
Her company markets several funds, most of which are traded as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and their performance has been spotty. Her picks, like Tesla, are high-risk, high-reward. Some have laid the groundwork for artificial intelligence (AI) and skyrocketed, such as Nvidia and Palantir, while others have lost market confidence, such as Block and Robinhood Markets.
In general, growth stocks outpace value stocks in a strong bull market, but Ark's flagship ETF, the Ark Innovation Fund, is underperforming this year despite the S&P 500's rise.
^SPX data by YCharts
I still think it's too early to buy SpaceX, which is a signature component of the Ark Innovation ETF, even if you believe in its opportunities. There's a lot of growth built into its price, and it's a while off from turning a profit. If the valuation becomes more attractive and the company approaches profitability, you can reevaluate.
Investors looking for the best time to sell SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock may want to focus on a narrow window in early August, according to an analysis generated by ChatGPT.
The assessment comes as SpaceX prepares to report its first earnings results as a public company on August 4, followed by a major lockup expiration on August 6. Together, the two events are widely viewed as the most important near-term catalysts for the stock.
Indeed, SPCX has suffered notable losses since its public debut in June. The stock reached a record high of about $225 before retreating sharply. By press time, SpaceX was trading at $108.37, down more than 30% from its market debut price of $135.
SPCX one-month stock price chart. Source: Finbold When to sell SPCX stock Based on current fundamentals, ChatGPT identified the period before SpaceX’s August 4 earnings report and August 6 lockup expiration as the most favorable time for short-term investors to take profits, citing elevated uncertainty and the potential for increased volatility.
The earnings report will offer the first detailed look at the company’s public-market performance, including Starlink growth, launch revenue, profitability, and AI initiatives. Meanwhile, the August 6 lockup expiration will make about 911.5 million insider-held shares eligible for sale.
While strong earnings could lift the stock, the influx of tradable shares may create selling pressure in the days that follow.
As a result, ChatGPT’s analysis suggested that investors with a short-term trading horizon face a more favorable risk-reward profile by reducing exposure before these events rather than waiting for the outcome.
For investors willing to hold through near-term volatility, ChatGPT identified the $200 to $250 range as a more attractive profit-taking zone. Reaching those levels would likely require strong earnings, solid Starlink performance, and evidence that lockup-related selling has been absorbed by the market.
In the near term, however, the August 4 earnings report and August 6 lockup expiration remain the key catalysts for SpaceX stock.
As a result, ChatGPT noted that short-term investors focus on the period before those events, while long-term holders may benefit from waiting for greater clarity on earnings, Starlink growth, AI initiatives, and insider selling trends.
The timing is particularly significant because SpaceX stock has already experienced a steep decline from its post-IPO highs.
SpaceX for long-term investors For long-term investors, ChatGPT reached a different conclusion. Rather than focusing on a specific date, the analysis suggests waiting for greater clarity on earnings results, insider selling activity, and overall business performance before deciding to exit a position.
Several factors remain central to the long-term investment case, including Starlink subscriber growth, AI monetization, Starship development progress, and continued government and defense contracts.
Notably, Starlink has increasingly become the primary valuation driver for the company, with investors closely watching subscriber growth, revenue expansion, margins, and international adoption.
Founder's ClubSwingTraderLeaderboardMarketSurgeeIBDIBD DigitalIBD LiveCustomer Center
My Stock Lists
Email Preferences
Help & Support
Sign Out
Search stocks or keywords
Sections
My IBD
MARKET TREND
STOCK LISTS
STOCK RESEARCH
NEWSECONOMY
VIDEOS & PODCASTS
HOW TO INVESTEDUCATIONAL RESOURCESStoreMy Products
Founder's ClubSwingTraderLeaderboardMarketSurgeeIBDIBD DigitalIBD Live
Recently Searched
Banking Giant JPMorgan Leads 19 Newcomers To IBD Best Stock Lists
Positive Market Shift, But Watch For This; Amazon, Alphabet, CrowdStrike In Focus
Stock Market Gains Even As Apple Crumbles; Jobs Report, AMD Earnings Loom SpaceX releases its second-quarter earnings late Tuesday, marking the rocket-maker's first report since its public debut in June. The results should detail the Starbase, Texas-based company's accelerating launch programs, Starlink growth and artificial intelligence developments. The report arrives as SPCX stock last week fell to post-IPO lows. Beyond financial figures and performance metrics, analysts and investors await updates from Elon…
Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money" to discuss the week ahead - 'BTS', 'Rush' & Jobs -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit http://www.bloomberg.com for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%), more commonly known as SpaceX, burst onto the investing scene earlier this year in spectacular fashion. The space technology company founded by the world's richest person, Elon Musk, set the record for the largest IPO in history. SpaceX became the most talked-about stock on the planet.
However, the sizzle quickly fizzled. Over the last seven weeks, SpaceX's share price has plunged more than 40% from its peak in the immediate aftermath of its IPO. Is the worst over? I don't think so. Instead, I predict SpaceX stock is about to sink further.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why the SpaceX sell-off has been justified I believe that the steep SpaceX sell-off has been fully justified. Quite simply, the company's valuation was well above a realistic level from the get-go. Many retail investors jumped on the SpaceX bandwagon without crunching the numbers.
When a stock is priced for perfection (and beyond), any bump in the road usually causes a significant decline. SpaceX has had three such bumps since its IPO.
First, only days after its public listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding leader Cursor. This deal diluted existing shares at an inopportune time as the stock began to experience initial post-IPO selling pressure.
Second, the company was forced to abort its planned Starship launch on July 16, 2026, after several engines failed. Starship, which is designed to transport humans and cargo into space, is viewed as a key growth driver for SpaceX.
Third, when SpaceX finally launched Starship (along with its newest Starlink satellites), the company hit another snag. Although the launch was successful, the rocket booster exploded after impacting the water faster than expected during landing.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
More headwinds, more downside Why do I think SpaceX stock has even more downside? The company faces additional headwinds.
One potential challenge for SpaceX arrives on Aug. 4. That's when the company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results. I'm not predicting that SpaceX will post disappointing numbers. However, investors will heavily scrutinize Starlink subscriber growth, xAI revenue, free cash flow, and capital expenditures. Even a minor sign of a problem could cause the stock to tank.
The biggest looming issue for SpaceX, though, is the expiration of its lockup period. The first lockup window opens soon after its Q2 update. As early investors begin to sell their shares, we could see downward pressure on SpaceX's share price.
How low can SpaceX go? Morningstar (MORN -0.28%) calculated a fair value for SpaceX of $780 billion. SpaceX's market cap would have to plummet nearly 50% from its current level to reach that valuation.
Do I think it will fall that much? No. Neither does Wall Street. The most pessimistic analyst, HSBC's (HSBC -0.63%) Nicolas Cote-Colisson, thinks the space stock is already close to where it will be 12 months from now. The consensus 12-month price target for SpaceX reflects an upside of over 100%. Raymond James (RJF +0.58%) analyst Brian Gesuale is super-bullish about SpaceX, with a target of $800 -- roughly 6.8 times the current share price.
Many of Wall Street's projections are overly rosy, in my view. I stand by my prediction that SpaceX's shares will sink further, perhaps by another 20% or so.
However, I also fully expect a strong bounce once the impact of the lockup period expirations run their course. My hunch is that SpaceX will finish 2026 trading between $150 and $160 per share. If I'm right, buying now could pay off -- if you're willing to endure significant volatility.
Many investors are keeping a close eye on SpaceX (SPCX -3.41%) as the company is about to release its second-quarter results on Tuesday, Aug. 4.
SpaceX stock has plunged 31% since its IPO just over one month ago (and is down 51% from its all-time high), and some investors are waiting on the sidelines to buy shares if Q2 results beat Wall Street's consensus estimates.
But history says it's probably better to wait one year or longer before buying SpaceX stock, if at all. Here's why investors shouldn't be so eager to buy the company's shares.
Image source: Getty Images.
The post-IPO blues While excitement around the SpaceX IPO was high -- the company raised nearly $86 billion from the offering -- SpaceX's falling share price has been a disappointment for investors.
But what shareholders may not realize is that SpaceX is following a well-worn path. Data from 1980 to 2024, compiled by Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, shows that companies that IPO with $500 million or more in annual revenue underperform their value-weighted market index by about 4% in their first three years after going public.
And that's not the only historical data pointing to disappointing returns for SpaceX. IPO data compiled by Jefferies over the past 26 years show that companies that go public with market caps above $10 billion typically have gains of only 3.5% in their first year.
Whether SpaceX gains around 4% over the next 12 months or lags the market by 4% three years from now, neither would be an impressive outcome for SpaceX shareholders. And with so much historical data backing the underperformance of IPO stocks, it shouldn't be too surprising to see SpaceX stock tumbling recently.
Progress is being made, but at a high cost Of course, there are always outliers for any data set, and SpaceX could prove to be a highly successful stock over the next year or more.
The company has made some significant strides with its rocket launch business lately, including the successful 13th test launch of its Starship. SpaceX wants to use the larger rocket to reduce the average launch cost by up to 99%. And the company's rocket business continues to expand, with SpaceX recently inking a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 rocket missions through the end of next year.
But SpaceX's capital expenditures are accelerating as the company invests in its other businesses, namely artificial intelligence (AI). The company's capital expenditures (capex) reached $20.7 billion last year and already hit $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Investors haven't loved the massive AI spending spree that's currently underway among tech companies. Shares of some AI stocks have slid recently as shareholders question whether the companies will earn a sizable return on their AI investments or not. With SpaceX's AI capex ramping up, it's likely its share price will continue to feel pressure until shareholders see some return on that spending.
Today's Change
(
-3.41
%) $
-3.83
Current Price
$
108.37
When is the right time to buy SpaceX stock? Based on the historical data, you may want to wait at least until mid-2027 before buying SpaceX, if not longer.
If the Jefferies data holds up for SpaceX, the company's shares will have regained some ground but will be up only about 4% from its opening-day price, putting its shares around $156. And if Ritter's historical IPO data pans out for the company, you might want to wait until 2029 before picking up some SpaceX shares.
SpaceX stock will need to fall much further before its shares look like a good deal. Even with down 40% since its IPO, as of this writing, the stock still has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 76, compared to the tech sector P/S ratio average of about 9.
That's quite a premium to pay for a company. All of which means that even if SpaceX has an impressive second quarter, investors may still want to sit this one out for now.
A discarded part of a rocket from Elon Musk’s SpaceX could crash into the moon early on Aug. 5, potentially creating a new crater — and the plume could be visible from Earth, according to new research.
getty
A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is set to collide with the moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, in an unplanned impact that’s expected to create a fresh crater and send a towering plume of debris into space.
The collision itself will occur on the moon’s sunlit surface and won’t be visible from Earth even in large telescopes, but the resulting dust cloud may be, according to new research published this week by researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and NASA Ames Research Center.
If so, it’s a very rare opportunity to witness the aftermath of an object striking the moon, though it also highlights the dangers of space junk as NASA prepares to build a moonbase.
ForbesSpaceX Space Junk Could Crash Into The Moon In August, Scientist SaysBy Jamie Carter
SpaceX Rocket To Strike Near Einstein CraterThe 45 ft. (13.8-meter) upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket — SpaceX’s workhorse reusable rocket that has launched almost 700 times — was launched into space on Jan. 15, 2025, from Launch Complex 39A at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. It carried the Firefly Blue Ghost Mission 1 and the ispace RESILIENCE mission into space. It’s been drifting in space ever since, but was not intended to strike the moon.
The 8,800 lb (4,000 kg) object, cataloged as 2025-010D, is predicted to hit the lunar surface at 06:35 UTC on Aug. 5, at approximately 5,400mph (8,700km/h) near Einstein Crater on the moon’s western limb. It could cause a crater roughly 89 feet (27 meters) across and 16 feet (5 meters) deep.
Space Junk: A Future Threat?Space debris in orbit is on the rise, with about 35,000 objects now tracked by space surveillance networks, according to the European Space Agency. 2025-010D may pose no danger to humanity for now, but impacts on the moon could be massively consequential in the future if NASA and the China National Space Administration make good on plans for a permanent human presence on the lunar surface.
Debris Plume May Be Visible From EarthAccording to researchers, the impact flash could be as bright as magnitude +3, or so faint that even large telescopes won’t detect it. Either way, the flash is unlikely to be visible because the crash site is fully illuminated by sunlight and will likely last less than a second, so attention has shifted to the much larger debris plume expected to rise above the moon’s horizon.
Modeling suggests that the impact is expected to excavate around 2.65 million pounds (1.2 million kilograms) of lunar regolith — roughly 150-200 times the rocket’s own mass. It could be visible for about 10 minutes, silhouetted against the darkness of space beyond the moon’s bright limb.
The eastern half of North America and much of South America will have the best viewing conditions. Both professional and amateur astronomers are being encouraged to attempt observations using high frame rate cameras.
Scientists Hope To Learn More About Lunar ImpactsBeyond providing a spectacle for some skywatchers, the collision offers researchers a valuable scientific experiment. “Given the renewed interest in lunar exploration, the impact of artificial bodies on the moon is almost certain to become more frequent,” reads the paper. “To avoid uncontrolled increases in the amount of space debris in lunar orbit (as is the case now in low Earth orbit), advancing monitoring of cislunar space from ground- and space-based facilities will be key.”
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are both in a position to image before and after the impact.
A drifting SpaceX rocket is on a collision course with the moon, with the explosive impact expected to be equivalent to three tons of TNT.
The rocket's upper stage will unintentionally slam into the moon next week, carving out a crater and sending up a plume of dust and rubble that scientists and skygazers are eager to observe.
Space tracking expert Bill Gray predicts an impact speed of 5,400mph - seven times the speed of sound - near Einstein Crater on the moon's sunlit western limb when it hits on Wednesday.
Image: A blue moon rising in Chile back in May. Pic: AP The rocket was used to launch a pair of lunar landers more than a year ago, and while scientists are not too concerned about the debris, it highlights the growing threat as more items head into orbit.
"Things are getting crowded up there," said Mr Gray, who plans to view the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada.
Image: A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifting off at Kennedy Space Centre in January 2025. Pic: AP It was never SpaceX's intention to hit the moon, but experts said the crash could have been avoided if the upper stage had been nudged into orbit around the sun.
It will be the second dead rocket known to crash into the moon accidentally, after a Chinese rocket segment left a pair of craters on the lunar far side in 2022.
More on Moon Landing
Does Trump want to commit war crimes in Iran?
Artemis II: Countdown begins to NASA's trip around the moon, the first manned mission there in more than 50 years
Why is NASA going back to the moon?
Luckily for astronomers, the upcoming collision will occur on the moon's near side.
The explosion will have energy equivalent to three tons of TNT, but the impact flash - lasting less than a second - will probably be too dim to see, according to experts.
Nonetheless the stream of ejected material could stretch for several miles into space and remain visible to telescopes for tens of minutes.
The eastern portions of the US and Canada, and much of South America should have the best views.
"The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away," said Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory, who's encouraging observations by professionals and amateurs alike.
He added: "Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts."
Read more from Sky News:
UK's largest telescope could be shut down after funding cut
Oldest woman to travel into space dies
Dr Fernando anticipates there will be an impact crater nearly 27m (90ft) across and 5m (16ft) deep, too small to see from Earth but visible to spacecraft.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter will gather before-and-after shots of the crash scene.
Danuri will stray within a mile or two of the rocket just two minutes before impact, according to Mr Fernando and his team.
The abandoned rocket segment - measuring some 12m (40ft) and weighing around 4,500kg - hoisted two private lunar landers on 15 January 2025.
One of them - Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost - became the first private spacecraft to pull off a fully-successful lunar touchdown. The other - a lander from Japan-based ispace - wrecked.
With meteoroids and other natural objects offering little if any warning before walloping the moon, scientists said there's much to learn by observing well-tracked strikes by human-made objects.
NASA hurled rocket sections and lunar modules into the moon during the Apollo era for seismic measurements.
In 2009, NASA intentionally crashed its LCROSS spacecraft and upper stage in search of ice near the lunar south pole.
The US and China are racing to land astronauts on the moon in the next few years.
Scientists said it's crucial to improve debris monitoring and traffic control before numerous robots and astronauts arrive.
Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin are vying to provide the lander for NASA's yet-to-be-named moonwalkers of Artemis IV, who will succeed the 12 Apollo astronauts who strolled the lunar surface.
"This impact will not be a problem," retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said.
"But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue and we need not to leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind."
As is often the case following an initial public offering, some investors are betting that the pre-IPO hype surrounding Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.13%) -- you know it better as SpaceX -- will continue to fade, letting the stock sink with it.
Specifically, as of the latest count, 165 million SPCX shares have been sold short. In other words, these investors have sold shares of SpaceX they don't yet own, with plans to buy them at a (hopefully) lower price in the future to profitably close out these positions.
Founder and CEO Elon Musk responded, of course. In a post on his social media site X, Musk writes, "The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," meaning these risky trades are likely to backfire by virtue of SPCX shares rallying rather than continuing to sink. The higher SpaceX shares climb, the bigger these short-sellers' losses can get. In theory, their potential losses are infinite.
The question is, who's right? Musk, mostly, but there's some important nuance to consider.
Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO. Image source: The White House.
When it comes to Musk, perspective is needed Let's be intellectually honest here -- Elon Musk isn't warning a handful of investors they're taking a grave risk. He's protecting his company by trying to prop up its falling stock price. Most CEOs and insider owners would do the same.
It just doesn't matter.
See, these short-sellers didn't make their decision on a whim that's going to be unwound by a single vote of optimism, even when that vote is coming from the one person who knows the company best, and especially when that person has the most to gain from SpaceX stock gaining ground rather than losing it (Musk personally owns nearly half of Space Exploration Technologies stock).
Right or wrong, these shorts are likely to stay in place at least until Aug. 4, when SpaceX's second-quarter earnings are scheduled to be released. That will either vindicate them with a sizable setback for the stock, or punish them with a reversal of this ticker's recent weakness.
Today's Change
(
-3.13
%) $
-3.51
Current Price
$
108.69
Statistically speaking, though, the odds are actually in these short-sellers' near-term favor. Numbers from Nasdaq Economic Research indicate that between 2010 and 2020, over half of newly IPO'd stocks were below their IPO price six months after their public offering. Moreover, brokerage firm Edward Jones found that shares of technology companies that went public during this same period were down an average of 14% from their IPO price six months later.
It's not difficult to figure out what happened. This era saw similarly hyped IPOs from then-Facebook (now Meta Platforms), Snapchat parent Snap, and Twitter (now X), just to name a few. As is often the case, the market was too enthusiastic early on ... enthusiasm that faded when cooler heads began to see these companies' actual results and made more reasonable assessments of their stock valuations.
SpaceX is not going to $0 That being said, there's no denying Space Exploration Technologies is a real company; its future existence isn't in question. And even Musk qualified his warning with "over time." From that perspective, any SPCX short-sellers with plans on staying in their trade forever should reconsider that plan.
In the near term, though? Maybe a different story.
Bottom line: There will come a time when this ticker makes a bottom that's never revisited. The trick is just figuring out when and where that is.
As important as June was for SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), July has solidified itself as featuring multiple milestones, of which the fall to a new all-time low of $107.01 and a decisive plunge below the initial public offering (IPO) price are arguably the most important.
Moving forward, August is set to be a key period as well, with the company’s first-ever quarterly filing as a public firm scheduled for Tuesday.
Examining the market on July 31, it would appear that the ongoing month had a greater impact on investors than the mid-June frenzy, considering that, on Thursday, SPCX stock saw its short volume ratio hit a 10-day high.
Specifically, the metric that measures the prevalence of bearish bets crossed above 71 on July 21 and then declined to the range between roughly 65 and 69.
Finally, despite SpaceX shares declining 0.31% to their latest closing price of $112.20 during the session, Thursday saw a new short volume ratio high of 69.95, signalling that traders expect little recovery and no strong tailwinds from the August 4 filing.
SpaceX stock short volume ratio. Source: Fintel Why SpaceX stock is falling and SPCX short volume ratio is soaring Meanwhile, SPCX equity’s 50% decline from the $225.64 high recorded on June 16 can largely be attributed to the firm’s exceptionally stretched IPO valuation.
Indeed, though the firm revealed it lost nearly $2 billion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 while accruing less than $5 billion in sales, it arrived at Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $1.77 trillion.
Though multiple analysts are forecasting a veritable revenue explosion in the coming years and Elon Musk himself speculated the number could hit $1 trillion by 2030, the sheer pace of growth has seemingly left more doubters than believers.
Much the same can be said about the nearly $30 trillion total addressable market (TAM) identified in the SpaceX S-1 filing and the Street high forecast of $800 – on that would see SPCX valuation soar to $10.5 trillion to represent roughly 30% of the total U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Under the circumstances, it is not difficult to see why some observers, such as professor and fund manager Patrick Boyle, came to reminisce about the now-banned Dot-com era practice of analysts publicly praising companies they privately consider worthless, nor why short positions appear to have maintained a lead with regard to SpaceX stock.
Is SpaceX stock a good investment ahead of the August 4 earnings? Looking at the August 4 quarterly filing, it is also relatively easy to see why traders might trend toward bearishness.
Notably, though analysts are expecting a significant revenue expansion relative to Q1 and to above $6 billion, the number not only appears minuscule given the firm’s market capitalization, but seems entirely linked to the easily-cancelled compute deals with Anthropic and Google’s parent company, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Furthermore, the data center deals themselves can be read as concerning in the long-term as they indicate that SpaceX has significantly more capacity than it needs despite positioning itself as primarily an artificial intelligence (AI) company and despite the majority of the growth projections hinging on AI.
Similarly, despite expecting sales to grow and frequently voicing a belief that Elon Musk’s newer public company is undergoing a transformation that will yield large returns down the line, Wall Street experts are not anticipating the firm to turn profitable yet and are calling for a $0.26 loss per share.
Lastly, while none of the projections necessarily mean SpaceX will not rally after the August 4 filing – an earnings beat, strong guidance, or an optimistic story told by the world’s first billionaire could all drive the equity higher – more trouble is likely to follow as the first insider unlocks are due mere days after the document is published.
Výrobce elektromobilů Tesla podle deníku The Wall Street Journal zvažuje oddělení svých aktivit v Číně před případným spojením se společností SpaceX. Mezi diskutované varianty patří vyčlenění čínského podnikání do samostatné firmy, jeho prodej nebo uzavření. Konečné rozhodnutí zatím nepadlo a plán se může změnit.
Hlavním důvodem jsou geopolitické obavy a možné regulatorní komplikace spojené s působením SpaceX jako významného dodavatele americké vlády a obranného sektoru. Tržby od americké vlády tvořily v roce 2025 přibližně 20,9 % tržeb SpaceX. Oddělení čínské divize by mělo vytvořit bariéru mezi aktivitami Tesly v Číně a obranným byznysem SpaceX.
Čína je pro Teslu druhým největším trhem a v první polovině roku 2026 tvořila přibližně 18 % jejích tržeb. Automobilka v Šanghaji vyrábí elektromobily a baterie pro čínský trh i export. Případná separace by mohla mít významný dopad na Teslu a v případě spojení se SpaceX také na její ocenění.
Akcie Tesla a SpaceX Akcie Tesly (TSLA) v předburzovní fázi posilují o 2,1 % na 315,4 USD, zatímco akcie SpaceX (SPCX) rostou o 1,4 % na 113,8 USD.
Zdroj: The Wall Street Journal
Marek Krejčiřík
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení
Související odkazy Index S&P 500 na začátku obchodování oslabuje, akcie Alphabet po výsledcích klesají o 6,3 % Tesla zveřejnila výsledky za 2Q, zisk na akcii zaostal za odhady Wall Street otevírá po reportu z trhu práce v zeleném Americké akciové indexy rostou po dohodě mezi USA a Íránem Americké indexy zahajují seanci v zeleném
Billionaire Bill Ackman made most of his fortune running his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management. And like many billionaires who make their fortune in the stock market, when Ackman speaks on investments, he tends to command more attention than your average Joe.
Ackman recently gave a nod to Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.31%), saying the company's Starlink business -- which provides satellite internet service -- has a "near monopoly" and that many on Wall Street follow the rule of "never bet against Elon" Musk.
Despite the praise for Musk and Starlink, Ackman says he isn't touching SpaceX right now because of one key concern.
Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management CEO. Image source: Getty Images.
Why Ackman won't buy the stock right now SpaceX hasn't reported its first earnings as a public company yet (that's happening on Aug. 4), but we can look at its 2025 earnings to get a sense of how expensive the stock is.
SpaceX made $18.7 billion in 2025, and at the time of writing, its market cap is $1.49 trillion. That's a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 79. For perspective, the "Magnificent Seven" stock with the highest trailing P/S ratio is Nvidia, sitting at 18.7 -- about a quarter that of SpaceX.
Good companies don't always make good investments when prices are too high, and that seems to be the case with SpaceX right now. When a company is priced for perfection, anything short of high-level execution could (and often does) result in sharp pullbacks or downturns.
Ackman also noted that an extremely high valuation also limits some of SpaceX's upside right now. It's much harder to double in value when you're valued at $1.49 trillion (a top 10 public company in the world) versus $100 billion or so.
Today's Change
(
-0.31
%) $
-0.35
Current Price
$
112.20
Will Ackman ever buy SpaceX shares? The rule on Wall Street is never say never, so we can't definitively say whether Ackman and Pershing Square will eventually scoop up SpaceX shares. However, Ackman noted that SpaceX wasn't a part of the plan right now because the company doesn't have the "degree of predictability" that Pershing Square is looking for.
That said, SpaceX is still very early in its public tenure, and with Ackman calling Musk the "most talented technologist, entrepreneur of our generation," you'd have to think that, with the right pricing, Ackman would find value in owning SpaceX shares.
Ackman prizes value and a good price in investments, but it seems it will be a while before SpaceX reaches that point, especially while it's still unprofitable. With a high-profile initial public offering (IPO) like SpaceX, it's often best to let the dust settle before making an investment decision. That's the route I'm taking.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.31%) has been on a remarkable losing streak. As of this writing, ten out of the previous 12 trading days have ended with a new record-low closing price. SpaceX's stock is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high of $225 and about 15% below its $135 IPO price.
Today's Change
(
-0.31
%) $
-0.35
Current Price
$
112.20
I could insert a tired joke on failed launches or downward trajectories, but that would only distract from an important point: If you've been holding out on buying SpaceX, the buying opportunity might be coming into view. Here's what I mean.
Why SpaceX's falling share price is improving its long-term potential Throughout SpaceX's short life on the market, the stock -- at least for disciples of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham like moi -- has been overburdened by an absurdly high valuation. I could pull any valuation metric out of my hat -- a price-to-sales ratio of 77, for instance -- but you square it, SpaceX stock has looked repulsively pricy by traditional standards.
It still, to be sure, does: Even after losing $1.2 trillion -- an amount roughly equivalent to the individual market caps of Tesla, Micron, and Berkshire Hathaway -- the stock carries a market cap of $1.5 trillion, which is still higher than the three mega companies just mentioned.
But now that SpaceX has shaved off -- and is continuing to shave -- some of its excessive valuation, the margin of error for investors grows wider. Before, at a multitrillion-dollar valuation, SpaceX would have to perform so perfectly that nothing short of space-based AI data centers and multiplanetary civilization would have been enough to send the stock soaring.
Image source: Getty Images.
With half of its valuation wiped out, SpaceX no longer has to conquer the solar system to get investors to pay attention. Indeed, one might say that actual business growth will begin to matter more than whatever ambitious vision the space company can cook up next.
To be sure, those unrealized, galactic ambitions are still driving much of the stock's current trillion-dollar valuation, which is why investors still should exercise caution.
For example, it's easy to look at its rounded-up 2025 revenue of $19 billion and say, "Yeah, but its (self-reported) total addressable market (TAM) is $28.5 trillion!" Never mind that $28.5 trillion is about $9 trillion larger than China's entire economy and only about $2 trillion shy of the United States'. As with any company whose valuation depends on hypothetical future business, a good dose of clear-headed rationality could stop you from sinking the nest egg into what amounts to a fantasy.
Let me be clear: A lower share price does not necessarily make SpaceX a better business. It does, however, make the same business cheaper to buy. And since I believe SpaceX has the leadership, technical knowledge, and ambition to expand the limits of human civilization, every bit of air that comes out of this obscenely valued stock makes me feel slightly more bullish.
But not bullish enough to buy: not yet. Personally, I don't think SpaceX belongs in the trillion-dollar club yet. I would continue to hold off on buying SpaceX for now, at least until its valuation looks even more reasonable or until its financial results catch up to its extraordinary ambitions.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX -0.31%) won a $1.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force to fly 18 missions with Falcon 9, the company’s current workhorse rocket. The flights are scheduled to finish by the end of 2027.
What the Space Force contract means for SpaceX's launch businessThe total award comes out to roughly $89 million per launch and will help bolster the company’s space launch segment, which reported $4.1 billion in sales in 2025.
Today's Change
(
-0.31
%) $
-0.35
Current Price
$
112.20
The unit generated $653 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) -- a rough stand-in for operating profit -- in the same year, carrying 2,213 metric tons into orbit.
Falcon 9 has handled about 70% of the launches conducted globally (excluding China), making it not just the company’s work-horse, but the world’s.
Why the stock has fallen more than 40% since its record IPOAn award of this size isn’t outside the scope of normal contract size for SpaceX, but it comes at a pretty critical time for the company. After its record-setting IPO in which it raised more than $85 billion (well over twice that of the now second largest), the company’s stock has fallen more than 40% from the peak in the days following the IPO.
Two primary worries have driven SpaceX’s stock slide. One, valuation -- the stock was trading at roughly 100 times its annual sales, meaning buyers were paying more than $100 for every $1 of revenue the company brought in last year. That is far, far more than is normal for a company of its size, especially one in a capital-intensive industry.
And two, supply: IPO lockup restrictions expire, and insiders who had been barred from selling become free to unload shares very soon. The first lockup will double the amount of shares available for public sale.
Image Source: Company Images
SpaceX by the numbers: Revenue, losses, and debtSpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025. The net loss that year came to $4.9 billion. The first quarter of 2026 brought in $4.7 billion of revenue, and the loss over those same three months ran to roughly $4.3 billion -- nearly matching the whole of 2025 in a single quarter. Long-term debt stood at about $29 billion.
The first earnings report as a public company comes on Aug. 4.
Is this contract a game changer? Here's my take$1.6 billion is real money, and the launch franchise behind it is about as dominant as a business gets, but I don't think this contract changes the investment case much. Spread over 18 flights and roughly a year and a half, it is a modest addition to a segment that did over $4 billion in sales last year.
The bigger question hanging over this stock is AI. SpaceX now leases data-center capacity to Alphabet and to Anthropic, the maker of Claude, and will bring in billions a month doing so.
This is a major pivot, and in my eyes, is more of a short-term stopgap to stem the incredible cash bleed the AI unit has been experiencing. The terms of these deals are unusually lax, allowing for their termination by either party for any reason in a matter of months. And long term, if SpaceX believed its Grok model could compete in the market, would it be smart to divert precious compute capacity to competitors?
Fox News real estate contributor Katrina Campins discuss how newly minted SpaceX IPO millionaires are dramatically impacting luxury housing markets and how quality of life is driving real estate on 'Varney & Co.' 00:00 - SpaceX millionaires flood the market 00:44 - The "August 6th" luxury cash-out 01:45 - Moving stock market gains into real assets 02:14 - Why buyers are fleeing California for Florida 03:10 - The shift toward "simple living" and space 04:02 - Luxury vs. Middle-Class housing inventory
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.34%), better known as SpaceX, priced shares for $135 in its June 2026 initial public offering (IPO). The stock has since fallen nearly 16% to $113.5 as of July 27.
A $1,000 investment at the IPO price would have purchased about 7.41 shares and would now be worth roughly $841 as of this writing. However, that calculation assumes the investor received shares at the IPO price, which was not guaranteed for every retail investor. Strong investor demand and a limited supply of publicly traded shares helped drive SpaceX stock higher after its IPO. Investors reportedly submitted more than $250 billion in orders for the SpaceX IPO, while less than 5% of the company's shares were initially available for trading. The stock later lost much of its early gain as investors questioned its lofty valuation.
Image source: Getty Images
Against this backdrop, SpaceX's long-term share price trajectory depends heavily on whether the Starlink satellite internet business can continue to grow profitably and the next-generation Starship reusable rocket system can become a reliable commercial business.
Starlink remains the profit engine SpaceX's connectivity segment, powered mainly by Starlink, generated $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in the first quarter. However, the operating profit can be misleading because SpaceX does not expense the full cost of launching Starlink satellites immediately. Instead, it capitalizes those internal satellite and launch costs in the Connectivity segment and recognizes them gradually through depreciation. In the first quarter, depreciation from capitalized satellite and launch costs added $276 million to Connectivity's cost of revenue.
Today's Change
(
-0.34
%) $
-0.39
Current Price
$
112.17
Anthropic has also agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for computing capacity through May 2029, although fees are lower during the May and June 2026 ramp-up period.
While that contract could eventually make AI a larger source of revenue, the AI segment is still loss-making. SpaceX's AI segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss in the first quarter, showing that rapidly rising compute revenue may not immediately translate into profits. Hence, for now, Connectivity segment remains the company's main source of operating profit.
SpaceX will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4. Around 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could become eligible for sale soon after this earnings report. While not all the eligible shareholders may sell the stock immediately, even a partial release could sharply increase the stock's available supply and add to near-term volatility.
SpaceX's planned $60 billion stock-funded Cursor acquisition would dilute existing shareholders if completed. Additionally, the $25 billion bond offering adds interest costs as the company continues investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), Starship, and other ambitious projects.
Starship is also expected to become a key growth catalyst. The rocket is designed to carry up to 60 higher-capacity Starlink V3 satellites per launch, potentially deploying 20 times more network capacity than the currently used Falcon 9 rocket. However, SpaceX must still prove that Starship can launch and be reused reliably enough to lower costs and improve Starlink's economics.
SpaceX is trading at roughly 38.5 times the analyst consensus 2026 revenue estimate of $39.3 billion. The premium valuation assumes major success across several businesses that are not yet profitable or fully commercial.
SpaceX could eventually justify a premium if Starlink maintains strong margins, Starship becomes dependable, and AI segment becomes profitable.
Key Takeaways SPCX is set to post its first public quarterly report, with $6.72B in revenue and a 26-cent loss expected.Starship milestones and Starlink growth support SpaceX, but debt and AI expansion raise investor concerns.SpaceX has fallen 16.6% since its IPO, and cautious investors may await clearer earnings expectations. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings after the closing bell on Aug. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and loss is pegged at $6.72 billion and 26 cents per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for SpaceX for 2026 and 2027 have witnessed no revision in the past seven days.
SPCX Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise HistoryThis is the Elon Musk-owned aerospace and communications behemoth’s first earnings report since its debut as a publicly traded company on June 12.
Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not predict an earnings beat for SpaceX for the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
SpaceX currently has an Earnings ESP of -4.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping the Upcoming ResultsSpaceX enjoyed a spectacular debut following its IPO. Strong investor demand, limited share availability and optimism surrounding the company's long-term growth prospects fueled a sharp rally during the first few weeks of trading. However, as the initial euphoria faded, investors began reassessing the company's valuation based on earnings potential rather than future expectations. The result has been a broad-based correction as early investors locked in gains.
The company completed a successful Starship test mission during the quarter, achieving several important technical milestones, including satellite deployment and in-space engine restart capabilities. These developments reinforce SpaceX's technological leadership in reusable launch systems.
During the quarter, SpaceX issued senior unsecured notes to improve its liquidity and repay a $20 billion bridge loan taken to fund the acquisition and merger with AI startup firm xAI. However, this led to uncertainty among investors amid concerns about heavy capital expenditure strains and governance issues, particularly after a $60-billion deal to acquire Anysphere.
The all-stock deal for Anysphere, aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market with the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor, fanned concerns about dilution of existing shareholders. It also led to fears that an aggressive, hyper-expensive expansion into AI infrastructure could weigh on long-term profitability. These are likely to be reflected in the impending quarterly results.
SpaceX continues to trade at a premium valuation compared with most aerospace and technology peers. The stock's initial rally reflected expectations for rapid growth in Starlink, commercial launch services and future space exploration initiatives. While these businesses continue to offer significant long-term opportunities, the valuation had left little margin for execution missteps.
Price PerformanceSpaceX has declined 16.6% since its IPO, underperforming the industry’s growth of 85.3%. It has lagged peers like Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) over this period. While Verizon gained 0.6%, AT&T is up 4.1%.
SPCX Stock Price Performance Since IPO
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment ConsiderationSpaceX remains uniquely positioned to capitalize on several long-term secular growth trends, including satellite broadband, reusable launch systems, government space programs and next-generation communications infrastructure. The company has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. SpaceX now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market.
However, near-term risks remain. Valuation concerns, potential insider selling following the lockup expiration and uncertainty surrounding the company's first few earnings reports could continue to weigh on the stock. SpaceX's more than 50% decline from its June high appears to reflect a normalization in valuation rather than a significant deterioration in its long-term business prospects. While the recent correction has made the stock considerably more attractive than it was just a few weeks ago, investors may prefer to wait for greater clarity from the company's inaugural earnings report before becoming more aggressive.
End NoteSpaceX continues to execute on multiple growth fronts, including launch services, satellite communications and next-generation space transportation. The combination of industry leadership, recurring revenue growth from Starlink and significant long-term optionality through Starship makes the company one of the most compelling stories in the global innovation landscape.
While valuation concerns and execution risks warrant attention, SpaceX appears well-positioned to benefit from the secular growth of the space economy. For investors seeking exposure to disruptive technologies and long-term growth themes, SpaceX may still have room to run.
Long-term growth investors with a higher risk tolerance may view the current weakness as an opportunity to gradually accumulate shares. More conservative investors, however, may find it prudent to remain on the sidelines until the stock establishes a firmer bottom and earnings expectations become clearer.
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.
In this article
Through late July, SpaceX had launched its Falcon 9 rocket 87 times in 2026, accounting for about half of all orbital launches worldwide. (CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP via Getty Images)
SpaceX stock rose early Thursday as Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company tried to shake off recent losses with some help from the U.S. Space Force.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX has lost almost half its value since reaching a high of $225.64 on June 16, turning the excitement surrounding the listing into a lesson about valuation and share supply.
The stock closed Wednesday at $112.55, around 17% below its $135 IPO price and 50.2% beneath the peak.
More than $1 trillion in market value has disappeared despite progress in Starship testing and demand for launch and Starlink services.
Jim Cramer remains optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects, but he believes investors planning a large purchase should wait until after the company reports earnings and the first insider lock-up expires.
SpaceX will publish its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Two days later, roughly 911.5 million restricted shares are expected to become eligible for trading.
IPO lock-ups prevent founders, employees and early investors from selling their holdings.
Their expiration does not guarantee that every eligible share will be sold, but it increases the available supply and can pressure prices when demand is already fragile.
Cramer said investors could “maybe buy a little” before the event, according to CNBC, but urged anyone considering a major position to wait.
His concern is that an encouraging earnings report may struggle to offset the prospect of more stock entering the market.
SpaceX used a staggered lock-up structure rather than a conventional single 180-day restriction.
Further portions will become tradable over the following months, keeping the supply overhang alive beyond August.
That makes Cramer’s argument about timing rather than the company’s direction.
Strong results could spark a rebound, but disappointing financial details combined with insider selling could push the shares closer to $100.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 target.
Barron’s reported that he values SpaceX’s established launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share.
Jonas argued that a price near $100 would effectively assign no value to the company’s artificial-intelligence operations.
That could create an opportunity if SpaceX turns its computing infrastructure, xAI relationship and proposed orbital data centres into durable revenue.
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken an even more aggressive position, assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 target.
The Financial Times reported that the forecast assumes SpaceX becomes a foundational platform spanning launch, satellite communications, national security and AI infrastructure.
The bearish case is that SpaceX still carries a valuation supported heavily by future businesses.
Starlink must produce durable margins, Starship must achieve reliable reusability and AI investments must generate enough revenue to justify enormous capital needs.
CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target.
Business Insider reported that Snyder admired the company’s vision but believed its financial disclosures did not yet justify the valuation.
HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson also started coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 target, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s launch leadership but caution over its broader ambitions.
The August 4 report must provide evidence on cash burn, Starlink economics, capital expenditure and the timeline for emerging AI projects.
The top Democrat on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is demanding that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk provide a tour of his company's xAI data centers and power plants in and around Memphis, Tennessee.
"Americans are concerned about what data centers and Big Tech's push for more AI means for their communities, jobs, property values, and future," Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) wrote in a letter to Musk on Wednesday. "Electricity prices are skyrocketing, the electric grid is strained, our clean air and water are being polluted, and noise is wearing on communities' health and patience."
Public opposition to data centers is rising in the U.S. after xAI's buildout in Memphis, and with others underway from OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft and Google. Gallup found in a survey published in May that seven in 10 Americans oppose the construction of an AI data center in their local area, with 48% strongly opposed.
Pallone has demanded information about Musk's facilities by Aug. 11.
SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment.
SpaceX's artificial intelligence facilities, known as Colossus and Colossus 2, include three data centers packed with cutting-edge Nvidia processors. They were built by xAI, before SpaceX acquired Musk's startup, which is the developer of Grok's AI models, chatbot and image editing tools.
The facilities are at the heart of SpaceX's AI ambitions, as the company tries to compete with the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic, and to eventually build orbital data centers.
Pallone excoriated SpaceX and Musk for a "disregard for the health and well-being of local communities." He said the company has created "a massive health risk" to neighbors by "trucking in off-grid gas turbines" to power the facilities, all without the proper permits and pollution controls.
President Trump's Department of Justice has filed a motion to intervene, and to effectively help xAI fight off a lawsuit, which was filed by environmental advocates and the NAACP in Mississippi to stop the company's use of allegedly illegal, air-polluting turbines.
"The Trump Administration has essentially claimed that it alone decides whether SpaceXAI and other companies get a free pass to pollute unimpeded," Pallone wrote. "But just because the Trump Administration will bend over backward to give tech companies free rein over community air, water, and land does not make your actions legal."
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, enacted legislation earlier this month to ensure data center operators pay a fair share for electricity, instead of shifting costs to residents and businesses.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.32%) recently completed the 13th test flight of its large Starship rocket, and by the company's own accounts, it was mostly successful. Even with the rocket completing many of its objectives -- including a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean and the release of Starlink satellites -- investors weren't wowed.
In the first trading session following the launch, SpaceX stock was down by more than 4%.
So, why aren't shareholders pleased with the results? It's likely because SpaceX is spending billions of dollars to build its artificial intelligence infrastructure -- and they're worried it won't pay off.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Starship is an important part of SpaceX's future because the world's largest rocket could help the company eventually reduce the cost of reaching orbit by 99% compared to the historical average launch cost.
Starship will be used to launch payloads into space for customers and, as the test flight showed, send more Starlink satellites into space. Starlink is critical to SpaceX's growth, as the satellite internet service is SpaceX's biggest revenue driver. Starlink sales were about $3.2 billion in Q1 2026.
But some shareholders likely looked past the successful Starship test because SpaceX is more than just a rocket company, and its spending on its artificial intelligence projects is sky-high.
In the first quarter, 76% of SpaceX's $10 billion in capital expenditure (capex) was allocated to its AI programs, primarily for data center infrastructure. Not only is that a large percentage of total spending, but overall capex spending is accelerating at the company.
In 2025, SpaceX's total capex was $20.7 billion, meaning that in the first quarter of this year, the company had already spent about half of all of last year's total.
Investors are increasingly skeptical that the billions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately pay off for SpaceX and other tech companies. Profits from massive AI spending have been hard to come by, and it's erasing much of the free cash flow that large tech companies are used to generating.
One recent example is Alphabet, whose share price has fallen as investors focused on the fact that its free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion in the first quarter -- its first negative free cash flow since going public in 2004.
SpaceX is worse off because, unlike Alphabet, the company isn't profitable. And investors are skeptical that it'll be profitable any time soon with all its AI spending underway.
Today's Change
(
-3.32
%) $
-3.86
Current Price
$
112.55
It's not the time to buy SpaceX yet Potential SpaceX investors aren't wrong to be skeptical of SpaceX's spending, and current shareholders are right to be concerned.
The company shows no signs of slowing down its AI investments, and another Musk-led company, Tesla, just reported negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years. Investors punished Tesla's shares for the decline.
Rockets, satellite internet, and AI business aren't cheap, of course, but I don't think investors are going to give up their aversion to AI overspending any time soon. As long as the spending is high and profits are low, it's likely SpaceX's stock could struggle to gain traction.
What's more, SpaceX shares already trade at a premium. The stock's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is about 77 right now, compared to the tech sector average P/S ratio of 7.
Owning some AI stocks can be a smart move, but investors may want to focus on more profitable companies right now. The AI spending boom isn't slowing down any time soon, but that doesn't mean shareholders have to own shares of an AI company that's miles away from profitability and spending too much on AI bets that may not pay off.
SpaceX won a $1.6 billion order from the U.S. Space Force on Wednesday to launch 18 Falcon 9 missions through 2027 carrying Pentagon satellites for detecting and targeting airborne objects, the military service said.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.48%) just conducted one of the most successful IPOs in history. After setting an initial IPO price of $135 per share with a market cap of $1.77 trillion, share prices shot higher during the space stock's public debut. At one point, SpaceX stock soared above $225 per share.
The exuberance was short-lived. Just six weeks after its IPO, SpaceX's stock price is now below $117 per share. That's about 13% lower than the company's original IPO price.
SpaceX is expected to announce its first-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. I don't expect many surprises on a material level, but I do expect CEO Elon Musk to do his best to hype the struggling rocket stock. That's especially true given another major event that will come just days after the second-quarter earnings release.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX investors must understand the company's lock-up schedule When SpaceX went public, less than 5% of its total outstanding share count was made available for public purchase. Analysts call this freely traded allotment of shares "float." Having such a small float naturally makes a stock more volatile, as supply or demand can quickly outstrip the other. Many experts argue that this is exactly why SpaceX's stock soared so much in its debut. Many of those same experts also believe the small float was partly responsible for SpaceX's sudden valuation slide in more recent trading sessions.
While a large float can help a stock reduce volatility over the long term, increasing the float can add short-term selling pressure. This is exactly what SpaceX shareholders should be wary of ahead of Q2 earnings. That's because a critical lockup period will expire, allowing certain shareholders to sell their stock on public markets for the first time.
Following Q2 earnings, potentially another 20% of SpaceX's outstanding shares will be made available for public sale. That could more than quadruple SpaceX's available float.
Many Wall Street analysts are concerned that the massive increase in float will create an overhang on SpaceX's stock price.
Today's Change
(
-1.48
%) $
-1.72
Current Price
$
114.69
"We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low cost basis and long holding periods," explains Nicolas Owens, an analyst for Morningstar. It's possible, however, that most of the potential overhang has already been priced into SpaceX stock. "It's conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup," Owens adds.
Ultimately, this will only be the first major increase in SpaceX's fleet. After third-quarter earnings are announced, another huge block of shares will be made publicly available, followed by the expiration of another lockup period after fourth-quarter earnings are revealed. In mid-2027, Musk will be cleared to sell his entire stake, totaling an astounding 6.4 billion shares.
None of these lockup periods should be a surprise to investors. All were clearly outlined in SpaceX's IPO prospectus. While the magnitude of SpaceX's float increases is unique, lockup periods are largely standard for IPO stocks.
Investors should monitor SpaceX's key lockup dates. However, an investment in the company should be based on long-term fundamentals, not on short-term changes in its float.
Morgan Stanley has reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and maintained a $300 stock price target ahead of the company’s first earnings report as a public company.
The new SpaceX stock price target implies about 165% upside from the recent share price of $113.
SPCX one-week stock price chart. Source: Finbold SpaceX is scheduled to report earnings on August 4, with investors closely watching for updates on its AI infrastructure, Starlink business, and long-term growth outlook.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes the upcoming earnings report could provide greater visibility into SpaceX’s long-term growth strategy, particularly its expanding AI compute business.
Specifically, the analyst sees the biggest upside catalyst in the company’s plans to deploy more than 2 gigawatts of additional AI computing capacity next year.
According to Jonas, each incremental gigawatt could create a significant new revenue opportunity if demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate.
Meanwhile, the firm is also looking for progress on large cloud infrastructure agreements, often referred to as neocloud deals, as well as stronger adoption of xAI’s Grok model through Cursor. Faster growth in Cursor’s annual recurring revenue would further strengthen the company’s AI investment case.
While maintaining its bullish SpaceX stock forecast, Morgan Stanley highlighted several risks that could weigh on investor sentiment.
In particular, the firm warned that capital expenditures significantly above its estimated $50 billion for 2026 could pressure profitability.
Additional fundraising before the end of the year may also dilute shareholders, while slower-than-expected Starlink subscriber growth remains another key risk.
Wall Street bullish on SPCX stock price Notably, Morgan Stanley’s $300 target is above the broader Wall Street consensus but below the most bullish forecasts.
According to data compiled from 30 Wall Street analysts at TipRanks, SpaceX carries a ‘Moderate Buy’ consensus rating based on 23 ‘Buy’, six ‘Hold’, and one ‘Sell’ recommendations.
The average SpaceX stock price target stands at $239.04, representing roughly 110% upside from current levels. Analyst targets range from a low of $115 to a Street-high forecast of $800.
SpaceX 12-month stock price prediction. Source: TipRanks Overall, SpaceX shares have remained under pressure since their record-breaking June IPO, falling sharply from post-listing highs as investors weighed valuation concerns, profit-taking, and the upcoming earnings report.
As a result, the August 4 results are expected to provide the first detailed look at the company’s financial performance as a publicly traded business and could serve as the next major catalyst for the stock.
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
In June, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.35%), better known as SpaceX, enjoyed the biggest Wall Street IPO in history. The highly anticipated public debut was so successful that SpaceX instantly became one of the most valuable companies in the world -- bigger than most of the other businesses in the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.97%) by market capitalization.
That startling achievement speaks volumes about the investor's eagerness to own a piece of SpaceX and its exciting vision for humanity's future. But since its initial public offering, shares have steadily declined, sinking below their IPO price of $135 per share.
Does this price drop signal a buy opportunity? SpaceX continues to sport a massive market cap of $1.5 trillion, so, understandably, investors wonder if the company's valuation is reasonable.
Image source: Getty Images.
A look at SpaceX's valuation Despite its post-IPO decline, SpaceX is among the top 10 largest companies by market cap. Looking at its valuation, its price-to-sales ratio is 78 as of the week ending July 24. Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world, sports a sales multiple of 20, a bargain by comparison. This suggests SpaceX shares are still pricey.
The lofty valuation is based in part on its vision for the future. SpaceX strives to unlock humanity's potential to become a space-faring civilization, with an eventual lunar base as a stepping stone to a colony on Mars. It describes itself as "the only company that has cracked the code on accessing space at scale."
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest predicts the company will achieve an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030. That assumes its biggest revenue driver, its Starlink satellites delivering internet service to underserved areas of the planet, will achieve $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035.
Starlink generated sales of $11.4 billion in 2025, an impressive 50% year-over-year increase. Even so, to sustain that level of expansion over a decade will be difficult. SpaceX admitted growth requires consumers to accept Starlink as an alternative to existing internet providers and for mobile device manufacturers to implement hardware and software modifications.
Today's Change
(
-3.35
%) $
-3.90
Current Price
$
112.51
Analyzing SpaceX's financials Looking beyond Starlink, the company's 2025 revenue totaled $18.7 billion, a 33% increase over 2024. However, in the first quarter, sales growth dropped to 15% year over year to $4.7 billion, as its rocket business fell 28% from 2025 to $619 million due to fewer launches. This demonstrates SpaceX's income generation will fluctuate, and if it cannot meet the sky-high expectations driving its elevated valuation, its share price can fall further.
While the company's goals are enviable, achieving them will be a long, winding path over many years. In the meantime, SpaceX is burning cash at an accelerating rate. Its 2025 capital expenditures totaled $20.7 billion, nearly double the $11.2 billion spent in 2024. Its Q1 2026 operating loss of $1.9 billion is a substantial reversal of 2025's operating income of $27 million and illustrates the concerning rise in costs relative to its sales growth.
For these reasons, SpaceX's valuation still looks questionable despite the recent share price decline. The stock could drop further if upcoming financial results fail to meet Wall Street's expectations. As a result, SpaceX stock is only a buy for investors with a high risk tolerance.
Roughly seven weeks ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's trillion-dollar artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX +2.57%), etched its name in Wall Street lore. The $85.7 billion raised from its initial public offering (IPO) nearly tripled the previous recordholder.
When SpaceX went public, it had an astonishing 21 underwriters, with Goldman Sachs leading the way. Given that underwriters typically purchase shares of the companies they bring public, it's common for these financial institutions to bestow buy ratings and lofty price targets on these businesses.
Image source: Getty Images.
Spanning seven weeks, 38 Wall Street analysts have weighed in on SpaceX. Unsurprisingly, 30 of these analysts have rated it a buy, with an additional seven chiming in with a hold-equivalent rating. But with SpaceX trading 15% below its IPO price and nearly 50% off its all-time high (as of July 24), these 37 analysts have, thus far, been wrong.
Only one Wall Street analyst has hit the nail on the head with SpaceX: CFRA Research's Keith Snyder.
Shortly after Musk's company debuted, Snyder issued a sell rating and a (now prescient) $115 price target. While Snyder acknowledged in a CNBC interview that he'd like to see SpaceX succeed, he firmly proclaimed that "hope is not an investment strategy."
SpaceX in IPO filing: "We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across... https://t.co/CBTpfJECik pic.twitter.com/yh54mKFlQE
-- Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 20, 2026 Specifically, CFRA's senior research analyst notes that the fundamental outlook for SpaceX doesn't match where Wall Street and retail investors were valuing the company. Snyder questioned how SpaceX arrived at its $28.5 trillion total addressable market, and he highlighted several potential speed bumps for the company, including space-based data centers and the evolution of Starship.
The SpaceX prospectus backs up this skepticism. Despite several years of positive adjusted EBITDA, Musk's company isn't yet generating recurring profits. This is a highly capital-intensive business that's prone to delays, which hasn't yet proved it's sustainable.
Image source: Getty Images.
"Musk isn't infallible" However, the strongest argument Snyder makes against owning SpaceX stock is something that Wall Street analysts rarely tackle. In response to CNBC host Brian Sullivan's statement that investors are buying SpaceX because of the prior success of Musk in proving doubters wrong, Snyder retorted:
Musk has done incredible things. But, he's not infallible. They have a lot on their plate right now, and they have a lot of different moving parts that all are required to make this success story a reality. And they all have to go right.
Acknowledging that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk isn't perfect is something we rarely see, but it's central to the thesis of skeptics.
Today's Change
(
2.57
%) $
2.92
Current Price
$
116.42
For example, Musk has been promising Level 5 full self-driving for Tesla's electric vehicles annually for over a decade, but this has never come to fruition. Likewise, he promised 1 million robotaxis on public roads by the end of 2020, which also failed to materialize. Musk frequently makes bold claims that end up baked into his public companies' share prices, but these visions rarely go as planned.
Put plainly, SpaceX is a "show-me stock" that's being valued as if it's proven itself for the last decade. Among a veritable sea of bulls, CFRA's Keith Snyder is the only analyst who's been right about SpaceX.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.57%), better known as SpaceX, hasn't exactly been a great performer on the public markets, losing more than $1 trillion in market value since its June peak. It went public at $135 per share, but quickly soared to a peak of $225.64 just days later. As of this writing, the stock trades for less than $110.
Despite the slump in the stock price, there isn't much that has gone wrong with the actual business. Here's a quick overview of what has changed for better or worse since SpaceX went public, and what to watch going forward.
What is behind SpaceX's trillion-dollar plunge? First, the trillion-dollar figure refers to the difference between SpaceX's current market cap and its peak shortly after its initial public offering. Compared with the IPO price, which valued the company at more than $1.7 trillion, SpaceX is down by less than 20%.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Even so, a nearly 20% decline in less than two months raises the question of what went wrong.
The short answer is "not much." The flagship rocket program, Starship, temporarily delayed its launch, which may have spooked investors. But that's par for the course when it comes to space companies, and the launch successfully took place on July 24.
Today's Change
(
2.57
%) $
2.92
Current Price
$
116.42
There's also anticipation that insiders may begin cashing out as lockup periods expire. SpaceX is using a non-traditional lockup expiration schedule, with a significant amount of stock set to become available for trading after it reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.
More good than bad It's worth pointing out that since SpaceX went public, the news has generally been positive for the business and for overall sentiment. Just to name some of the key developments:
While the compute deals with Anthropic and Alphabet came before the IPO, SpaceX added a deal with Reflection AI in the weeks that followed, and further potential deals are reportedly in the works. As mentioned, the Starship launch took place on July 24 and was a success, with the softest-ever splashdown. Most analysts who have initiated coverage on SpaceX have been bullish, with a median analyst price target of about $242 (more than double the current price). In a nutshell, although the numbers are admittedly huge, the percentage move hasn't been too unusual. Several other recent IPOs that received a lot of attention (such as Figma (FIG +6.32%)) cooled off even more in the weeks after going public. With SpaceX set to report earnings for the first time as a public company on Aug. 4, investors will get a glimpse of how the business is actually performing and a clearer picture of whether the current valuation is cheap or expensive.
Matt Frankel, CFP® has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
As of early-morning trading on July 27, the Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.57%) stock price was trading below $110 per share. As it opened at $150 when it began trading to the public on June 12, this may not be the early result some shareholders were expecting.
With SpaceX set to report 2026 second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4, there's concern that some insiders may sell their shares, putting more downward pressure on the stock price. If SpaceX's stock price were to fall to $100, however, one analyst has a warning about what that would represent.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Is SpaceX oversold? In a note shared by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote to clients about a disconnect between investing sentiment around SpaceX and its fundamentals. And if the SpaceX stock price falls below $100 per share, it may be a warning that investors are undervaluing, or not valuing at all, SpaceX's artificial intelligence (AI) efforts.
"Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor," Jonas wrote in the note. "Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business."
Grok is an AI chatbot that was formerly a part of one of Elon Musk's other companies, xAI, which SpaceX acquired in February. To bolster its AI capabilities even further, SpaceX entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Cursor, an AI coding and software platform, in an all-stock transaction valued at $60 billion. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.
With where the stock is trading, Jonas added in his note that, "We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point."
Today's Change
(
2.57
%) $
2.92
Current Price
$
116.42
The upside and risks ahead According to Bloomberg data, 80% of analysts covering the company recommend buying shares. And with an average price target of $232, that suggests SpaceX may indeed be undervalued.
In addition to Grok and Cursor, SpaceX is also building out AI infrastructure assets, which are helping the company generate revenue as it scales up its broader plans. Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI are all renting compute capacity from SpaceX, with the deals from just Anthropic and Alphabet potentially generating a combined $26 billion annually for SpaceX. Eventually, SpaceX plans to launch data centers in space, furthering its ability to become a leader in AI infrastructure.
Of course, the risks are plentiful.
SpaceX's orbital data centers aren't expected to start launching until 2028, and it will need to spend aggressively to commercialize AI infrastructure in space.
It already is, as its AI division is easily its most capital-intensive. SpaceX spent $12.7 billion in 2025 on its AI segment, compared to $3.8 billion on the space segment and $4.1 billion on its connectivity division. For the first quarter of 2026, capital expenditures for the AI segment were already $7.7 billion.
For what's ahead, especially depending on the second-quarter results and how many insider shares are ultimately sold, the stock price could continue to drop. The upside is certainly there, but this is still a stock meant for more aggressive investors who can handle the jarring dips in exchange for potential long-term rewards.
SpaceX IPO Marked AI Bubble’s PeakIn a post on X on Tuesday, Schiff underlined that the AI trade was unwinding and said that SpaceX was “down over 20% since its IPO.” He then said that it was down 52% from its all-time high of $225 per share.
“It looks like the SpaceX IPO marked the peak of the AI bubble,” the Echelon Wealth Partners co-founder said. He then added that while AI was real, there was a “lot more air left to come out of overhyped AI-related stocks.”
The economist had also said that the rally had caused Musk to lose $100 billion in a week as both Tesla and SpaceX recorded sharp declines. Following the slide, Musk no longer retains the trillionaire title, with his net worth being around $724 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Shorting SpaceX and AI?Meanwhile, market research firm S3 Partners said that SpaceX had become the second-most profitable company to short, with short-sellers clearing upwards of $7 billion betting against the commercial space flight giant. Shorts against SpaceX have also reportedly crossed $26 billion.
Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 1.33% to $114.86 during overnight trading on Tuesday.
Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Teenagers pose for a photo while holding smartphones in front of a X logo in this illustration taken September 11, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesSYDNEY, July 29 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's X accused Australia of trying to give its internet regulator unfair information-gathering powers and undermining U.S. law with plans for tougher enforcement of a teen social media ban.
Australia's world-first law barring accounts for under-16s took effect last December, drawing criticism from social media companies, mostly based in the United States.
Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.
But the contention by X, whose parent company is Musk's just-listed SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab, amounts to one of the world's most powerful people injecting a geopolitical element into the debate.
The plans did not give "due regard to procedural fairness, privacy, the broader impacts on online services, and Australia's digital economy", X told an Australian senate committee.
In its submission published on Tuesday, X took aim at plans to give the eSafety Commissioner wider rights of document discovery and double a maximum fine to A$99 million ($69 million).
The changes would "compel any person outside Australia ... to provide information and documents merely because they are 'affiliated' with a company," X said, a move it described as being "in clear conflict" with international legal principles.
The amendment "raises potential for a severe impact on international comity", it added, using a phrase denoting respect for a foreign country's legal system.
A U.S. congressional committee has already asked the eSafety Commissioner to testify, accusing her of imperiling American free speech.
The billionaire Musk himself called the Australian social media ban a "backdoor way to control access to the internet by all Australians" in an earlier post on X.
Data published by eSafety and studies since the ban have shown most Australian teenagers under 16 still have social media accounts.
eSafety has said it is preparing a potential enforcement lawsuit against five platforms but is slowed by its limited powers.
The regulator told the panel its currently-limited power to compel documents was at odds with other regulators, making it dependent on "representations from providers about their own compliance".
eSafety also lacked power to compel documents from third-party age assurance providers hired by the platforms, establishing "significant" barriers to the progress of investigations, it added.
DIGI, an industry group representing several platforms, told the senate inquiry eSafety already had extensive enforcement powers that had not been fully tested, and urged greater clarity on whom it could demand documents from.
Google's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab YouTube and TikTok said in separate submissions there was no known failsafe method to weed out and block underage users.
Parliament has yet to pass the bill for greater enforcement powers. The senate committee will deliver its findings on August 25, after holding hearings.
($1=1.4397 Australian dollars)
Reporting by Byron Kaye; Editing by Clarence Fernandez
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Byron Kaye is the Reuters chief companies correspondent for Australia, based in Sydney. Over 10 years at Reuters he has covered banks, retail, healthcare, media, technology and politics, among other topics. He can be reached at +612 9171 7541 or on Signal via username byronkaye.01
According to a report by the New York Times on Tuesday, market research firm S3 Partners’ Ihor Dusaniwsky, who is the firm’s Head of Predictive Analytics, said that short-sellers cleared approximately $7.3 billion since SpaceX’s IPO in June.
“We’ve seen continued SPCX short selling since its inception,” Dusaniwsky said in the report. SpaceX is set to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 4, in what will be its first-ever public earnings call. Following its earnings, SpaceX will also allow some insiders to begin selling stock as the lock-up period stipulated in the IPO ends.
Ron Baron Bullish on SpaceXHowever, investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki backed SpaceX, warning investors not to bet against the company and saying that the company’s goals made the recent stock decline irrelevant.
Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 2.04% to $114.04 during overnight trading on Tuesday.
Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
Photo courtesy: Thrive Studios ID via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
SpaceX (SPCX +2.57%) will report quarterly results for the first time as a public company on Aug. 4, after the market closes. For most newly public companies, a first report is a formality with a webcast attached. Not here.
The rocket and satellite company went public in June at $135 per share, saw the stock climb as high as $225.64, and has since watched it fall to about $118 as of this writing -- roughly 48% below the high, and under the IPO price itself. And under the company's own lockup rules, the report starts a clock: two trading days after results are released, up to 20% of eligible insider and employee shares become free to trade for the first time.
So the Aug. 4 numbers aren't just a debut. They're the evidence that will greet the market's first real wave of potential sellers. Here's what has to show up in them for the stock to stabilize -- three things, in order of importance.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
1. Growth that holds its pace The revenue story is the reason the bulls are still here. SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in trailing-12-month revenue through March, after 2025 revenue grew 33% -- remarkable growth for an industrial company of this size.
Starlink does the heavy lifting. The connectivity segment produced $11.4 billion of revenue in 2025, about 61% of the 2025 total, and grew roughly 50% year over year, with segment operating income up 120%. The space segment contributed about $4.1 billion, and the AI (artificial intelligence) segment built on the absorbed xAI business added $3.2 billion. Starlink also ended March with 10.3 million subscribers, up from 8.9 million at the end of 2025.
A first report that shows Starlink still compounding at anything near that rate keeps the growth story intact. A visible slowdown there, and the 33% headline number starts to look like history rather than trajectory.
2. Losses that look like investment, not decay SpaceX loses money. The company posted a $2.6 billion operating loss in 2025 and a $1.9 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
But the composition matters more than the headline. SpaceX poured about $3 billion into Starship research and development in 2025, and another $930 million in the first quarter of 2026. For a company valued in the trillions, the direction of those losses matters more than their size. And beneath the losses sits real cash generation: adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at a positive $6.6 billion in 2025 and $1.1 billion in the first quarter.
That's the shape of a company funding an enormous development program from a profitable core, not a business that can't cover its own costs. What the report has to show is that this shape is holding: losses growing no faster than the investments explain, and the Starlink profit engine still running underneath.
3. A reason for the unlocked shares to wait The third requirement is less about the quarter than about the audience. Two trading days after the report, the first 20% tranche of eligible shares comes out of lockup, with further blocks scheduled to follow through the end of the year.
Every one of those newly free shareholders will be deciding whether to hold or to sell a stock that sits below its IPO price. Management's job on Aug. 4 is to give them a reason to wait -- a first-ever forward outlook, disclosure on where Starship spending peaks, or detail on how the AI segment makes money. Silence on those fronts, with that much new supply arriving, could be expensive.
Today's Change
(
2.57
%) $
2.92
Current Price
$
116.42
What I'd do before Aug. 4 I'm doing nothing before the numbers. At about $1.5 trillion in market value, SpaceX trades near 80 times its trailing sales -- a valuation that leaves no room for a disappointing debut, even 48% below the high.
But I'm not interested in betting against a business growing 33% with a profitable satellite franchise inside it, either.
Elon Musk's xAI, now owned by SpaceX, sued Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison to challenge a law that would ban so-called nudify apps in the state.
In their complaint, filed in a federal court in Minnesota on Monday, attorneys for xAI wrote that the statute "imposes an overbroad, content-based ban on free speech and the tools of visual expression in a clumsy attempt to prohibit 'nudification.'"
The Minnesota law, which goes into effect on Saturday, targets apps and websites that give people the ability to generate non-consensual sexualized imagery, levying $500,000 fines each time a user creates explicit deepfakes. The law, passed in April, was spearheaded by Minnesota state Sen. Erin Maye Quade after she learned about a man who created sexualized images and videos of of over 80 women he knew using their social media photos without their consent.
Maye Quade told CNBC in September that the proposed bill was similar to older laws prohibiting the act of peeping into windows to capture explicit photos.
SpaceXAI, as the artificial intelligence business is now known, is facing a proposed class action lawsuit from plaintiffs who allege that the company's Grok AI chatbot and image generator was used to create and share child sexual abuse materials (CSAM) depicting them as minors based on real photos or videos. The suit also alleges that xAI failed to share information with authorities about alleged perpetrators who used Grok to "nudify" their images.
Musk's company argues that it "strictly prohibits" users from generating nude or sexualized images of people without their consent. The company noted in its complaint that it's filed suit against users who "evade its extensive technological blockers to generate such images in violation." It's filed a similar suit to challenge a California law intended to thwart AI-generated, or "deepfake" content in the state.
HomeIndustriesAerospace/DefenseSpace WatchSpace WatchInvestors are getting concerned that we may be near a period of ‘peak’ defense spending, especially if control over Congress becomes dividedJuly 28, 2026, 4:43 p.m. ET
As SpaceX’s stock has sold off, so have others in the space sector — but there are factors behind the broader sector weakness beyond pressure on its most high-profile player.
Namely, investors are getting jittery that approval of new defense spending could become a slog if Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives this fall. The upcoming midterm elections and a lack of clarity around the conflict with Iran could set up for “protracted negotiations within Congress,” Citizens analyst Trevor Walsh said in a client note.
It seems like just yesterday, Elon Musk was anointed the world's first trillionaire by capital markets. Now, with Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.15%) stock down 43% from highs set in the days following its initial public offering (IPO), Musk's net worth is close to getting cut in half as bearish sentiment sets in.
Are we still far from intrinsic value, or is SpaceX stock a screaming buy at $120 or below? When looking at the numbers, the answer is clear.
Today's Change
(
3.15
%) $
3.58
Current Price
$
117.08
Huge growth potential, but at what cost? Wall Street and the tech community hyped up the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) because of the immense growth potential at play with this space economy and artificial intelligence (AI) stock. The key word in that statement is "potential."
SpaceX is the leader in commercial rocket launches, but it is a relatively small business, revenue-wise, given its current $1.5 trillion market capitalization. In 2025, the space segment only generated $4 billion in sales and actually lost money. SpaceX's revenue and profit primarily come from its connectivity segment, Starlink satellite internet. This segment is growing 50% year over year and hit $11.4 billion in revenue last year.
Where there is even more growth potential is SpaceX's AI segment, which only did $3.2 billion in revenue last year and is burning a boatload of capital every quarter on infrastructure costs. SpaceX has turned around and sold contracts for this data center infrastructure to AI competitors like Google Cloud, which will lead to strong revenue growth this year.
The question is: At what cost was this revenue generated, given $10 billion in capital expenditures for the consolidated business in the first quarter of 2026?
Image source: Getty Images.
Everything is banking on AI demand growth With SpaceX, the stock price is not going to be driven by its namesake business, but by its aggressive investments into AI infrastructure. For one, it has a massive terrestrial data center business on Earth that is well over capacity to serve its internal services, such as the Grok chatbot. This is why it is selling its data center capacity to third parties that are competing directly with Grok, such as Anthropic.
Long-term, SpaceX believes it can build data center compute capacity in orbit at a cheaper cost than on Earth. Again, this plan relies on the insatiable demand for AI data center infrastructure to continue for the decade ahead.
SpaceX posted just $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, most of which came from the Starlink internet business. This segment should continue its strong growth trajectory in the years ahead, but the vast majority of SpaceX's capital expenditures -- which are now larger than quarterly revenue -- are related to AI. If demand materializes, SpaceX may quickly grow its revenue to $100 billion or more. If it doesn't, SpaceX is likely to have spent a boatload of money on AI infrastructure that will be sitting idle.
SPCX data by YCharts
The stock may have quickly fallen close to 50%, but that has no bearing on whether shares now trade at a reasonable valuation. We are still sitting at a market value of $1.5 trillion, with a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 80 based on 2025 revenue figures. Revenue is going to need to grow into the hundreds of billions in the near future, along with healthy profit generation, for anyone buying SpaceX stock today to expect solid returns going forward.
Investors also need to consider the flood of stock that will be unlocked as post-IPO lock-up periods end throughout the rest of this year. These are shares generally owned by insiders who have held SpaceX stock for years and now want to return capital to their own venture capital investors.
Add both of these factors together, and SpaceX stock still doesn't look like a buy, even as it falls below $120. Shares will need to fall significantly more before reaching an attractive valuation.
Three days after SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, Representative William Timmons IV picked up the phone and bought stock. According to periodic transaction reports filed with the House Clerk, the South Carolina Republican purchased between $50,001 and $100,000 in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) on June 15, 2026. Timmons chairs the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s Subcommittee on Military and Foreign Affairs, a panel whose jurisdiction runs directly through the Pentagon’s largest launch contractor.
The trade is legal under current congressional rules, and reporting has found no evidence of insider trading. The disclosure reveals a conflict-adjacent pattern: Timmons is one of six House members, or their spouses, who bought SpaceX shares within days of the listing, and five of the six sit on committees whose work touches SpaceX’s defense, satellite, artificial intelligence, federal contracting, or securities businesses.
The Timmons Purchase Beyond the military oversight gavel, Timmons also sits on the Delivering on Government Efficiency (DOGE) Subcommittee and a financial services subcommittee covering AI. His SpaceX filing appears in the disclosure system as two separate periodic transaction reports for the same June 15 transaction, which could reflect either multiple purchases or an amended disclosure. That detail remains open.
Benzinga has separately reported that the SpaceX buy was Timmons’s first stock trade in six years and followed prior public criticism he had leveled at Elon Musk. That color, as reported by Benzinga, adds texture but is not part of the formal filing record.
The Other Five Representative Gil Cisneros, a California Democrat, purchased between $1,001 and $15,000 in his own name on June 18, 2026. Cisneros sits on the House Armed Services Committee, which authorizes Pentagon and Space Force programs, the clearest second example of a direct committee-to-company overlap. The Space Force’s FY 2027 budget requests $7.8 billion for space access, including National Security Space Launch services, a program in which SpaceX is a named prime contractor.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
The remaining trades: Representative John McGuire (R-VA)’s wife bought between $1,001 and $15,000 on June 15; Representative Dan Meuser (R-PA) purchased between $15,001 and $50,000 on June 15; Representative John James (R-MI)’s wife bought between $15,001 and $50,000 on June 12, the day of the IPO; and Florida Democrat Jared Moskowitz purchased between $1,001 and $15,000.
Legal, but Conflict-Adjacent Aggregated across the six lawmakers, the SpaceX purchases totaled somewhere between roughly $83,000 and $245,000, a range that reflects the wide disclosure bands Congress requires rather than a precise dollar figure. Kedric Payne, ethics director at the Campaign Legal Center, framed the concern this way: “The potential conflict of interest exists when the committee assignment may overlap with this company as a government contractor.”
SpaceX shares have since given back much of the post-listing enthusiasm. The stock closed at $113.50 on July 27, 2026, down 25.93% over the prior month.
The trades land in the middle of a live legislative fight. On July 22, 2026, the House passed the Stop Insider Trading Act, which would bar members of Congress and their families from purchasing individual stocks going forward. The SpaceX filings are precisely the kind of transaction the bill’s supporters cite when arguing for a ban, though no direct causal line runs between this episode and the vote. The signal to watch next: whether the Senate takes up the measure before the August recess, and whether any of the six lawmakers file amended disclosures.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX +2.35%), also known as SpaceX, have been reeling in recent weeks after a hot start to its IPO a month ago. The sell-off has been swift, with the rocket company falling 50% from its high. Investors who ignored valuations and bought at any price have endured significant losses in a short time frame.
However, with such a massive decline, the stock becomes a cheaper, potentially more attractive buy. If it falls below $100, does it become a no-brainer buy?
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX doesn't belong in the trillion-dollar club On Monday, SpaceX stock closed at $113.50, with its decline showing no signs of stopping. It doesn't need to go much further into decline for it to potentially fall below $100, which would be symbolic for a stock that hit a high of more than $225 at one point.
At $100, its market cap would be around $1.3 trillion. While at that valuation, it would still be part of the trillion-dollar club, it would be drastically lower than what it was worth when it first went public. For investors, the question becomes when the stock might become too cheap to pass up.
However, even at more than $1 trillion, its valuation would remain obscene. The largest and most valuable companies in the world have not only large, established businesses but are also highly profitable. SpaceX, which incurred a loss of $4.3 billion through just the first three months of this year, doesn't fall into that category. While its quarterly revenue is significant at $4.7 billion, even less valuable companies generate significantly more in sales.
Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, has a valuation of $1.2 trillion, and it's generated more than $100 billion in revenue over the trailing 12 months. However, amid rising competition and declining profits, it has also been falling significantly this year, and may also end up falling below $1 trillion.
Today's Change
(
2.35
%) $
2.67
Current Price
$
116.17
The stock is still a highly risky buy Future growth expectations play a huge role in SpaceX's inflated valuation. Achieving lofty targets such as putting data centers into space or sending humans to Mars would be incredible feats, but they could take several years and entail considerable uncertainty and risk.
SpaceX, unfortunately, has a lot to prove as a business, and it may still have much more room to fall in value given how egregiously expensive its valuation was when it first began trading. It wasn't justifiable to begin with, and even if it falls below $100, it would still be an expensive buy. For growth-oriented investors, there are many better growth stocks to consider than SpaceX.
As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares fell to a new all-time low (ATL) on July 28, Cathie Wood – the founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of ARK Invest – has revealed why her investment management firm has kept buying SpaceX stock.
Wood stated that SpaceX stock price has not factored in that the company has a strong business edge through its Starship program. As such, she highlighted that the equity market is climbing a ‘wall of worry’, which is not typical at the end of bull markets.
“Starship’s successful splashdown was perhaps game-changing news for SpaceX; yet, the stock dropped further below its IPO price today. The equity market is climbing a “wall of worry”. Bull markets do not end in this way. They end when everyone believes the sky is the limit!” Wood noted.
The Wall Street investor echoed a similar view from Brett Winton, the chief futurist at Ark. Winton had argued that Friday’s successful Starship splashdown and its relatively unscathed heat shield would help SpaceX master reusability, thereby increasing the firm’s revenue over the years.
Furthermore, he believes that the reusability of Starship could help reduce the cost per launch from $570 per kg to $100 per kg.
“If SpaceX can master Starship reusability this year, that would increase our 2031 revenue and EBIT expectations for the company by roughly 3-fold and improve 2036 prospects by 6 to 7-fold,” Winton explained.
As a result, Ark Invest has been accumulating SpaceX stock through private market purchases, and after the June 2026 IPO (initial public offering). At press time, Ark Invest held more than 3,921,348 SPCX shares, valued at over $420 million.
SpaceX stock outlook SpaceX stock price has already dropped over 20% below its IPO value, trading at $107.34 on Tuesday. Over the past 30 days, SPCX shares have plunged by nearly 35%, thereby hitting a new ATL.
SpaceX stock all-time chart. Source: Finbold Despite the notable sell-off, Wall Street analysts have maintained a Buy rating on the company. For instance, Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), has reiterated a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $300, which suggests a potential 179.49% upside.
Meanwhile, 30 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month price target of $239.04, signaling a possible 120.05% upside. With such strong fundamentals, Wood defended Ark’s investment position in SpaceX.
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
Post-IPO Sell-off Drives Downward PressureSpaceX dropped from its June 16 high of $225.64, breaking below its $135 IPO price and its $161 first-day close. On Monday, CEO Elon Musk posted on social media that he “will not forget about Mars,” highlighting long-term capital expenditure requirements for red planet exploration.
Upcoming Insider Lockup Expiration WarningMarket Experts Weigh In On Stock ValuationCommenting on the stock trajectory, Bilello stated, "SpaceX is suffering the same fate as so many major IPOs before it: a euphoric debut, unrealistic expectations, and a painful reality check." Addressing historical trends, Bilello added, “A lot of people said, ‘No, Charlie, this time is different.’ Well, it’s not different.”
Investors Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC and Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki also commented on the decline, with Black stating that only investors who miscalculated valuation were shocked by the drop.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX shares were down as much as 5% in the premarket. At the time of writing, SpaceX shares were up 1.53% at $115.23 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Foto: photo_gonzo / Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Is the sell-off finally over for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.26%) stock?
Shares of Elon Musk's famed space enterprise fell to $107 a share this morning, a near-6% drop that prompted Bloomberg to crow that SpaceX stock had fallen 20% and erased "$1.2 trillion" in value.
(The actual news was even worse. The first time SpaceX traded on IPO day, it sold for $150 a share. Falling to $107 from that price was nearly a 30% drop!)
But no sooner had Bloomberg's story gone to print, than investors began buying SpaceX stock again. As of 11:50 a.m. ET, the space stock is up 1.3% from yesterday's close.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Did Wall Street save SpaceX? What turned things around? Well, this morning Bernstein SocGen analyst Douglas Harned stepped in to reiterate his "outperform" rating on SpaceX, insisting the $107 stock is worth twice that -- $239 -- a number even higher than the best price SpaceX fetched in its first three days post-IPO.
Citing the successful launch and soft-water-landing of Ship 40 as part of SpaceX's 13th Starship flight test, Harned pointed out that this is the V3 Ship model SpaceX will use to travel to the moon for NASA. It's the big Ship that will be able to put V2 Mobile and V3 Starlink satellites in orbit.
And it's the Ship that will fulfill Elon Musk's dream of putting artificial intelligence data centers in orbit.
Today's Change
(
2.26
%) $
2.57
Current Price
$
116.07
Is SpaceX stock ready to turn around? This is the bet that may finally work out for SpaceX. Elon Musk predicts putting AI data centers in orbit will unlock a $28.5 trillion total addressable market for SpaceX -- nearly as much revenue as the entire United States generates today.
If he's right about that, SpaceX stock could finally be a buy.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) currently trades at $113.50, well below the consensus Wall Street price target of $236.71, an implied upside of 108.56%.
Space Exploration Technologies just completed the record $75 billion IPO in mid-June 2026 at a $1.77 trillion valuation and landed with a thud in the weeks that followed. Wall Street sees a company bridging launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure through Falcon reusability, Starlink’s roughly 9,600 satellites and the newly acquired xAI unit.
One outlier stands apart. Raymond James has staked out an $800 price target, framing SpaceX as a future multi-trillion-dollar monopoly across launch, broadband, and orbital compute.
A Post-IPO Slide That Left Nearly Every Buyer Underwater Gravity took hold almost immediately. SPCX priced at $135, spiked over $225 in the first days of trading, and has since collapsed from its June 15 high of $192.50, the stock is down 41.04%, sliding 29.48% since its June 12 debut.
Two forces did the damage. A looming unlock described on r/wallstreetbets as “bigger than the entire IPO float” handed short sellers $15.5 billion in profits. Nasdaq-100 inclusion was met with more selling than buying, reinforcing the “ran too far, too fast” narrative. Weekly Reddit sentiment sits at 20.6, firmly bearish.
Fundamentals added pressure. Polymarket cites lack of demonstrated profitability as the reason it prices S&P 500 inclusion this year at just 3.15%.
Why Analysts Refuse to Cut Their Targets With implied upside of 108.56% to consensus and far more to Raymond James’ number, the bull case demands real space. Coverage is stacked toward the bulls: 7 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell across 11 analysts, with recent updates leaning toward reiterations rather than downgrades.
Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski frames the disconnect directly: “SpaceX Investors Missing The Bigger Picture”. Her thesis is that the market is pricing SpaceX like an aerospace company instead of “a multi-platform infrastructure company involved in launch, communications, defense, and AI connectivity”. Starlink already serves customers in 164 countries, with direct-to-cell coverage in roughly 30.
The Raymond James $800 case models Starship pushing payload cost-per-kilogram below any commercial or sovereign competitor, Starlink dominating direct-to-cellular and mobile backhaul, and Starship deploying orbital compute infrastructure at scale. The $1.25 billion per month Anthropic deal for roughly 300 megawatts of Colossus capacity is treated as the first proof point of that model. This is a multi-year thesis measured in years, not quarters.
How Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Are Faring in the Same Downdraft The peer group sold off with SPCX, though not as violently. This looks like a sector-wide reset compounded by a company-specific unlock.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) trades at $66.94, down 20.82% over the past month but still up 41.13% over the past year. Its consensus target of $114.33 implies 70.79% upside, with 14 Buy and 3 Hold ratings. Neutron’s debut launch is the swing factor.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades at $58.29, down 18.42% over the past month and 19.74% year to date. Its consensus target of $83.32 implies 42.94% upside, though the mix of 2 Buy, 7 Hold, and 2 Sell reads more cautious than either RKLB or SPCX.
The largest analyst-implied upside in the group sits with SpaceX. Consensus alone points 108.56% higher, and Raymond James stretches that well beyond. SPCX is where the widest gap lives.
What the Numbers Actually Show SPCX trades at $113.50 against a consensus target of $236.71, implying 108.56% upside across the 11-analyst panel. The rating split:
Buy: 7 Hold: 3 Sell: 1 SPCX is down 29.48% since listing, 25.93% over the past month, and 5.3% over the past week. The S&P 500 is up 8.38% year to date, a wide gulf versus SPCX’s IPO-to-date return.
Prediction markets stay skeptical near-term. Polymarket assigns only a 22.0% probability that SPCX closes above $120 by month-end, and just 3.15% to S&P 500 inclusion in 2026.
Where I Actually Land on SpaceX at $113 The bull case at $113 rests on Starship’s reusability curve holding and Starlink’s direct-to-cell rollout converting telecom carriers into recurring revenue. That is the concrete path back toward the consensus $236.71. Orbital compute is the wildcard that could take you toward Raymond James’ $800 over a multi-year horizon.
The bear case builds if lock-up expiries keep resetting the float, xAI integration bleeds capital faster than launch cadence produces margin, and profitability remains theoretical rather than sustained. Any of those flips this into a value trap dressed as a mega-cap growth story.
On balance, I lean cautiously constructive. The base case stands on its own without the moonshot, and the peer group confirms this was a sector-wide reset. The setup favors patient accumulation over chasing, and suits investors comfortable holding through more air pockets.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SpaceX SPCX shares extended their decline on Tuesday as investors continued to weigh the prospect of a wave of insider share sales ahead of the company's first post-IPO lock-up expiration.
The SpaceX stock fell more than 5% to around $107, well below its IPO price of $135.
The broader market was mixed, with the S&P 500 little changed while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF declined 3%, led by a 9% drop in Micron.
SpaceX has now erased more than $1.2 trillion in market value from its post-IPO peak, with shares falling sharply from a record high of $225.64 reached in June.
Monday marked the stock's 13th decline in the past 16 trading sessions, with shares closing down more than 1% at $113.50.
Investor attention has increasingly shifted to the expiration of SpaceX's post-IPO lock-up agreements, beginning shortly after the company is expected to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4.
Two business days later, early investors will be eligible to sell nearly one billion shares, significantly more than the 629 million shares sold in the company's June 12 initial public offering.
Lock-up agreements restrict company insiders and early investors from selling shares immediately after an IPO.
As those restrictions expire over the coming year, more than 6.4 billion additional shares could become eligible for sale.
Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens said expectations of increased share supply may already be weighing on the stock.
"It's conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup," Owens said.
He added that substantial selling is likely once restrictions begin to expire because many early investors have held their positions for years and have low cost bases.
"We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low cost basis and long holding periods," Owens said.
Following the first lock-up expiration on August 6, another 455.8 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale around August 20.
Additional lock-up expirations are scheduled throughout September and continue into the first anniversary of the IPO.
Most of the scheduled lock-up releases do not include shares owned by Chief Executive Elon Musk, certain senior executives or board members.
Musk's holdings are expected to become eligible for sale in June 2027, although he has previously said he does not intend to sell.
KeyBanc reiterated its Sector Weight rating on SpaceX, saying continued progress on Starship remains the most important driver of the company's long-term growth prospects.
The firm described Starship Flight 13 as near perfection and said future flight tests will be critical to achieving full reusability and the rapid launch cadence needed to support the company's long-term ambitions.
KeyBanc also said it is seeking additional details on SpaceX's decision to stop accepting Falcon 9 launch bookings after 2028, particularly as Starship has yet to demonstrate sustained, rapid launch operations.
According to the firm, Starship underpins several of SpaceX's key growth initiatives, including the expansion of the next-generation Starlink satellite network, orbital data centres, and future lunar and Mars missions.
KeyBanc said investor attention is increasingly shifting from technical progress to the pace at which those initiatives can be commercialised.
The firm said SpaceX's valuation is becoming increasingly dependent on the timing of future milestones and the company's ability to commercialise its next generation of space and communications technologies.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.25%), otherwise known as SpaceX, went public last month in the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, sliding into the top 10 most valuable companies in the country. It briefly overtook Amazon after crossing $225 per share, up from its $135 IPO price tag, but even as SpaceX falls below that price, it remains the seventh-most-valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Meta Platforms.
Unfortunately for IPO investors, SpaceX stock is now 43% off its highs. Does that create a buying opportunity for new investors? The company will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4, its first earnings report as a public company. What makes this report unique is that, under the IPO's structure, insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares two days after it's released.
Let's see how that might impact the stock and what a $10,000 investment might be worth the day after the report.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Wall Street wants from SpaceX stock As an Elon Musk-led company with the largest IPO ever, by far, there's been significant hype around SpaceX. But at some point, the investment thesis has to touch reality, and it might be happening sooner than investors expected.
Until now, investors have had access to some of SpaceX's most recent financials through its investor prospectus. This earnings report will be its first test as a public company, where it will be evaluated on its progress. Wall Street is looking for $6.9 billion in revenue and a $0.28 loss per share, but it didn't provide the 2025 second-quarter results in the prospectus, so year-over-year comparisons will be revealed at the time of the report. The revenue figure would be a 47% increase over the first-quarter results, and the loss per share would be substantially better than the $1.27 in the first quarter.
What else is happening Most IPO stocks have a six-month period when insiders are restricted from selling their shares, but SpaceX's restricted period is staggered, with the first phase ending on Aug. 6. According to the prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares are eligible to be sold on the second full day of trading after the report, with another 455.8 million more if the SpaceX stock price is higher than the IPO price for five out of the 10 days leading up to the report. As of now, being in the 10-day period, that isn't looking likely.
Today's Change
(
-1.25
%) $
-1.44
Current Price
$
113.63
As the report's release gets closer, the stock continues to slide. If SpaceX stock beats expectations, it's likely to rise, and it could be the Musk superfans who drive the rally. If it mimics the stock's first day of trading, it will gain 19.6%, and a $10,000 SpaceX investment on Aug. 4 would be worth $11,960.
More likely, though, the stock could sell off even further as investors anticipate more shares coming to market, especially if results come in below expectations. If the stock falls as much as it did the first day it fell after the IPO, or 5%, a $10,000 investment would be worth $9,500. But if it plummets even further, and I anticipate it will, it could get a lot lower.
