Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) has had a highly successful first few weeks on equity markets after its debut in the biggest IPO in history. However, the company has experienced a pullback. Not to worry, says Wall Street, as the dip may be a buying opportunity. SpaceX's average price target of $188.17 (According to Yahoo! Finance) represents an upside of 19% from its current levels. Should investors rush to buy SpaceX's shares right now?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Mind your risk tolerance The excitement surrounding SpaceX comes from several sources. First, the company's CEO, Elon Musk, is a trailblazer. He's not afraid to make aggressive bets and pursue potentially transformative strategies, and that has paid off for him in the past. Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) has delivered outstanding returns since its 2010 IPO with Musk at the helm. He has also helped revolutionize space travel, notably through SpaceX's pioneering work on reusable rockets, which significantly reduced launch costs. Second, SpaceX is by far the leader in some of the markets it operates in. The company dominates orbital launches.
Also, SpaceX's Starlink, which offers high-speed internet through a network of Low Earth Orbit satellites, is currently its most important business. SpaceX is the top player in this niche, with far more satellites in orbit than its competitors. The company's work with reusable rockets enabled it to scale this business faster than its peers. Third, SpaceX is looking to tap into lucrative opportunities. The company estimates that its total addressable market across space, internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) is $28.5 trillion.
Provided the company can grab even a fraction of this over the next decade, its revenue and earnings will soar, as will its share price. Lastly, SpaceX arguably has a competitive advantage from economies of scale thanks to its vertically integrated strategy.
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With all that said, there remain significant risks with investing in SpaceX. Though Musk is a trailblazer, he is also a polarizing figure, and one who is now the CEO of two major public corporations. It's not unheard of for a single man to successfully head two publicly traded companies, but it's not easy either. Further, despite SpaceX's pioneering of reusable rockets, other companies are actively trying to catch up.
Note the similarity with Tesla. It helped make electric vehicles (EVs) mainstream, and it still has the best-selling EV on the market. However, it now has far more competition and has seen a slowdown in EV sales in recent years. It even briefly lost its status as the largest EV company by deliveries, although it regained it.
The lesson: a first-mover advantage and a large lead over competitors matter. But even with those advantages, SpaceX could eventually see other space companies catch up and steal significant market share. The same is true with its Starlink business. In the meantime, SpaceX's financial results don't justify its valuation. Its revenue last year was $18.7 billion, while it lost almost $5 billion.
All these factors (and more) make SpaceX a fairly risky stock that will be highly volatile. It may not match The Street's price target over the next year as the excitement surrounding its IPO dies down. In the meantime, investors should wait for a much steeper pullback before initiating a position in this stock.
SummarySpaceX is evolving into an integrated launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure platform, with AI expected to become its primary long-term growth driver.Starlink reached 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, while AI hosting agreements imply approximately $26 billion in annualized recurring revenue.Starship V3 is expected to increase payload capacity twentyfold and reduce launch costs per kilogram by roughly ten times, strengthening internal economics.Despite strong growth prospects, SPCX reported a $4.94 billion FY2025 net loss, a $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss, and raised $25 billion through bonds.Investors should monitor AI hosting revenue, operating margin improvement, and cash burn, as execution will determine whether the premium valuation remains justified. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO investment story extends well beyond launch services. It is becoming an end-to-end infrastructure platform covering space transport, connectivity, and AI computing. Now that SpaceX has gone public, investor attention is more likely
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The long-awaited IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX for short, finally arrived on June 12. Shares shot up like a rocket on their first day of trading, soaring to $150 and then to $225 in short order. But the stock has reversed course just as quickly, falling back to around $150, a round trip that took place in under two weeks.
A lot is happening with SpaceX right now, from rampant hype around space and artificial intelligence (AI) to the company's recent $60 billion acquisition of Cursor. But there is real, underlying math that helps explain why SpaceX stock is so volatile right out the gate, and what it might mean for the stock price moving forward.
Looking at SpaceX's quick surge and sudden decline SpaceX was the largest IPO in history, and arguably one of the most hyped. There were tons of investors who wanted to buy shares. By design, SpaceX only made a small portion of its total stock publicly available on IPO day, just 4.24%. These publicly tradable shares are called the float.
The small float and overwhelming demand for SpaceX shares created a classic supply-and-demand situation, in which the stock price rocketed higher in the days immediately following its market debut. But demand eventually peaks, and investors saw SpaceX reverse course after reaching about $225 per share.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
So, why did the stock cool off? There are probably a few reasons. First, SpaceX's stock was very expensive at its high. Second, the company is funding its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor with stock, diluting existing investors. The market often sells off stocks in these scenarios to reflect the anticipated dilution. Lastly, IPO day is often when excitement peaks. Investors then have a few days to step back and assess, and that hype and excitement usually fade a bit.
Where is the rest of SpaceX's stock? Newly public companies have lockup periods that prevent insiders and employees from dumping their stock into the buying frenzy on IPO day. While typical lockup periods are around 180 days, SpaceX is using a staggered lockup period that gradually allows insiders to sell and expand the float at a controlled pace.
The earliest selling window opens after SpaceX's first earnings report, assuming the stock meets certain share price thresholds. There are several windows after that, building up to the traditional lockup expiration after 180 days. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk and other significant investors are subject to a 366-day lockup, allowing them to begin selling shares on June 14, 2027.
Remember, investors can currently trade only 4.24% of SpaceX's total shares. The current float of approximately 555.6 million shares could multiply as these lockups expire over the next year. Circling back to the supply-and-demand dynamic, a steadily growing float puts a thumb on the supply side of the scale.
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Looking at where SpaceX's share price might go from here Meanwhile, SpaceX still trades at a $2 trillion market cap, approximately 110 times its 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion. It remains one of the market's most expensive stocks, even after the recent dip. High valuations create high expectations. The selling pressure could intensify if SpaceX cannot deliver the growth to justify such a high valuation.
There are several reasons to love SpaceX as a long-term investment. That said, the stock's quick dip from $225 could be a warning sign of how quickly SpaceX can shed value if market sentiment turns against it. Understanding how the float will expand over the coming year will help investors weigh the risks of buying shares now versus waiting for the dust to settle.
SpaceX (SPCX +2.69%) went public on June 12 at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Three weeks later, the rocket, satellite-internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company commands a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. Only a handful of companies have ever been worth that much -- and every one of them earned billions in profits when it got there.
SpaceX is different. Across 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, its reported losses add up to a trailing net loss of about $9.4 billion, set against roughly $19.3 billion in trailing revenue.
That combination raises a question worth answering before the company joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 -- an event that will make index funds automatic buyers of the stock. Has a money-losing business ever been valued this highly? And if it hasn't, should investors care?
Image source: Getty Images.
A price arguably without precedent Start with the historical check. The market has valued unprofitable companies richly before, but the previous standard-bearers operated on a different scale entirely. Rivian, the electric-truck maker, briefly commanded a market value of about $150 billion in late 2021 while deeply unprofitable -- and that stood out as extreme at the time. Uber ran years of losses with a valuation that topped out around $100 billion. Amazon, the dot-com era's favorite money-loser, was worth only tens of billions back when it was losing money.
SpaceX's $2.1 trillion is roughly 14 times the Rivian benchmark. I can't find a money-losing company in market history that has come anywhere close. So it's safe to say that SpaceX appears to be the most valuable unprofitable company the market has ever seen.
Now, the loss itself deserves a closer look, because it isn't the loss of a struggling business. According to the company's IPO prospectus, SpaceX -- whose filings also include xAI, the AI business it absorbed -- generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, and lost $4.9 billion. Then it lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
But the composition matters. Starlink, the satellite-internet business, produced $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue -- about 61% of the total -- and generated $4.4 billion in operating profit. The losses come from everything surrounding it: about $3 billion a year of research and development spending on the Starship rocket program, plus the enormous computing costs of the AI operation. In plain terms, one highly profitable business is funding two gigantic bets.
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What a $2.1 trillion price tag demands What makes the record more than trivia is what it implies about expectations. At about $2.1 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its trailing revenue -- not its earnings, its revenue. A price like that requires nearly everything to go right: Starlink must keep compounding for years, Starship must eventually turn its development spending into dramatically cheaper access to space, and the AI bet must justify losses that are widening, not narrowing. The $75 billion raised in the IPO buys time, but it doesn't change what has to happen.
Fresh evidence is coming. SpaceX hasn't yet announced the date of its first earnings report as a public company, but that report -- expected this summer -- will offer the first new numbers since the prospectus, including whether Starlink's growth and margins are holding up and how fast the Starship and AI spending is scaling.
The answer to the headline question, then, is yes: Investors should care -- not because losses disqualify a stock, but because of the expectations this price locks in. Amazon lost money for years and became one of the great investments of all time. The difference is that Amazon's doubters could buy it for tens of billions. SpaceX asks investors to pay a price that already assumes the bets pay off, from a company that has yet to file a single quarterly report as a publicly traded company, with fortunes still closely tied to CEO Elon Musk.
Personally, I'll let the first few earnings reports answer the questions the prospectus can't. Records are fascinating. That doesn't make them buyable.
The historic initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), more commonly known as SpaceX, represented a watershed moment in capital markets. The IPO price of $135 per share valued the company at approximately $1.75 trillion.
However, SpaceX stock opened on Nasdaq near $150 -- achieving a $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading. At its debut, SpaceX was instantly among the world's most valuable public companies.
SpaceX's swift entry into the trillion-dollar club underscores enthusiasm for its blend of launch capabilities, expanding satellite network, and bold forays into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While the IPO was monumental, a bigger question now centers on whether this momentum can scale the company to an unprecedented market capitalization over the coming decade.
Let's dig into SpaceX's growth prospects and assess if the stock can feasibly reach a $10 trillion valuation in the years ahead.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What does SpaceX's revenue trajectory look like? SpaceX's revenue profile is supported by three interconnected pillars that evolve at different rates.
SpaceX's launch business should continue to benefit from its reusable rocket technology, combined with rising global demand for satellite deployment and crewed missions. Starship's maturation is expected to bring further cost reductions to orbital operations, potentially unlocking a higher launch cadence and new commercial and government contracts. I think it's reasonable to expect this segment to generate steady, not explosive, growth as competition in the space exploration industry intensifies.
Starlink represents the company's nearest growth engine. The constellation has already brought broadband connectivity to remote regions and is expanding aggressively across maritime, aviation, and enterprise markets. Given this success, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan cites Starlink's potential to disrupt traditional telecoms through direct-to-cell capabilities, positioning the network as a global connectivity layer that could capture market share from terrestrial providers.
The most transformative upside, however, lies in AI infrastructure. Over the last month, SpaceX has secured $82 billion worth of partnerships with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Meanwhile, the company is exploring cross-synergies with xAI for model training and Cursor for developer tooling.
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What would it take for SpaceX to reach a $10 trillion valuation? SpaceX's current trading levels already reflect extraordinary optimism. Based on its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, SpaceX commands a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 110 -- rich by any historical standard. Furthermore, Wall Street's long-term forecasts diverge sharply on the company's revenue profile.
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, fueled primarily by the AI division, which is expected to surge from roughly $3 billion today to $322 billion. Analysts at Morningstar built a comprehensive discounted cash flow (DCF) model and concluded that SpaceX has a far more conservative growth profile. Morningstar projects that SpaceX will generate only $67 billion in revenue by 2030 and could scale to roughly $500 billion by 2045. The disparity in Goldman and Morningstar's timelines to reach roughly the same revenue profile is striking. Oppenheimer was less granular on absolute dollars but emphasized a total addressable market approaching $10 trillion by 2035 between satellite communications and AI infrastructure.
Blending these perspectives, I think a plausible 10-year revenue estimate for SpaceX could fall in the $200 billion range by the mid-2030s. This would assume continued Starlink subscriber momentum in enterprise markets, successful Starship commercialization, and scaling AI infrastructure contracts converting into a sustained, high-margin revenue stream.
Against this backdrop, reaching a $10 trillion market capitalization at this revenue level would require a forward P/S multiple of 50x. While that's lower than today's multiple, such a valuation still embeds substantial growth expectations and a durable competitive moat.
Smart investors need to be realistic when it comes to SpaceX It's important to note that the math exercise above is inherently speculative and should serve only to illustrate the scale of SpaceX's ambitions. A $10 trillion SpaceX would require near-perfect execution across multiple frontiers simultaneously.
History shows that even the most revolutionary technology platforms rarely sustain the valuation profile and growth rates needed to reach such historic levels without periodic corrections. While SpaceX possesses unique technological momentum and a visionary founder and CEO in Elon Musk, translating these ambitions into consistent, profitable revenue streams at scale remains both a demanding challenge and highly uncertain.
The numbers explored above highlight both the breathtaking upside and the hurdles that SpaceX must clear to justify maintaining a premium valuation. In the end, whether SpaceX becomes the first $10 trillion stock will depend less on today's enthusiasm and more on the consistent execution of management's most ambitious promises throughout the AI infrastructure era.
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until sometime next year. The company has already filed the preliminary paperwork to go public, so the potential delay is a bit of a disappointment to investors who are waiting to invest in the AI juggernaut.
The New York Times reported that advisors to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are telling him that the recent volatility in Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.83%) IPO indicates that now is not a good time for AI companies to go public.
SpaceX stock, after opening at $150 per share on its IPO debut and rising as high as $225 a few days later, is now back down to around $156, as of this writing. Cerebras, another recent IPO by an AI company, also experienced a huge spike on its IPO day, only to see its shares remain volatile in the following weeks.
Investors are indeed concerned that AI companies are spending too much on infrastructure, with hopes of future profits too far down the road.
But OpenAI may be missing the bigger picture: IPOs tend to be highly volatile regardless of the market environment.
Image source: Getty Images.
OpenAI is trying to avoid SpaceX's volatility OpenAI and SpaceX may seem like very different companies, but there's actually a fair amount of overlap between the two. SpaceX owns the Grok AI chatbot and recently made a major $60 billion purchase of Cursor, giving it AI software for programming to better compete with ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude.
SpaceX is also building extensive AI infrastructure for its neocloud business, renting out high-powered processors to AI companies such as Anthropic, Alphabet's Google, and others.
Why does this matter in the context of an OpenAI IPO? Both SpaceX and OpenAI are burning through piles of cash to expand their AI services at a time when investors are starting to doubt companies will see a return on their spending.
SpaceX's 2025 capital expenditures totaled $20.7 billion and are likely to be higher this year, given that Q1 2026 spending was already $10 billion. The company also reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year and doesn't expect to be profitable for at least several years.
OpenAI's detailed financial information isn't publicly available yet, since the company's S-1 filing hasn't been filed, but investors can get a good idea of the company's spending from estimates -- and there's a lot of it.
OpenAI had an operating loss of nearly $21 billion last year and spent about $34 billion. The company has just over $13 billion in revenue for 2025, and says it has an annual revenue run rate of $20 billion.
The point here is that, like SpaceX, OpenAI is spending oodles of dollars to build out its AI empire, and profits aren't close.
The company reportedly aims to reach a $1 trillion valuation when it goes public and to avoid the volatility SpaceX stock has seen thus far. But that's easier said than done, even if SpaceX waits until next year to go public.
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The one thing OpenAI advisors are missing IPOs are inherently volatile, and larger ones can be especially so. Research from Jefferies analysts shows that companies worth $10 billion or more that went public over the past 26 years averaged 26.5% returns in their first week.
Pretty good, right? Except that one year later, they were up by an average of just 3.5%.
Ouch.
The lesson here is that expecting a mega IPO to perform exceptionally well over the next year, even with all of the AI hype that's currently underway, is statistically unlikely, which means that whenever investors can get their hands on some OpenAI shares, they should be prepared for a roller-coaster ride.
That doesn't mean OpenAI shares won't be a good long-term investment, or that SpaceX can't be, for that matter, either. But if you're interested in either stock, it's best to wait about a year before buying.
And with investors unlikely to look the other way on the AI spending sprees underway, I expect much more share price volatility in this space ahead.
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Stock Market Skids As Trump Makes This Trade Call; Jobs Report Due SpaceX stock's stratospheric potential could be just that — potential — as the AI and rockets company reaches the harder limits of reality. The stock may see limited upside due to its lengthy tenure as a private company. As a result, SpaceX (SPCX) stock may be considered a high-risk, high-reward asset. After its founding in 2002, SpaceX spent more than 20…
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) -- commonly called SpaceX -- is probably best known for its Starlink satellite internet and mobile services and its revolutionary reusable rocket technologies that have dramatically lowered the costs for getting satellites and other payloads into orbit. On the other hand, the company is actually positioning artificial intelligence (AI) technologies as the most important part of its growth strategies.
In the S-1 prospectus the company published prior its initial public offering (IPO) in June, it said that roughly $26.5 trillion of its $28.5 trillion total addressable market comes from AI technologies and services. On the other hand, the company's AI segment accounted for only roughly 17% of the $18.7 billion in revenue that it recorded in 2025. With that in mind, could SpaceX really be the ultimate AI infrastructure play for long-term investors?
Image source: Getty Images.
What is SpaceX cooking up in the AI space? Shortly before SpaceX went public, the company announced that it had landed a major AI processing contract with Alphabet's Google division. The deal will see SpaceX providing $920 million a month in AI processing services to Alphabet starting this October, and the contract lasts for three years.
Starting from SpaceX's base of roughly $3.2 billion in AI segment revenue in 2025, the company already looks poised for dramatic growth over the next year just from the Alphabet contract alone. SpaceX's wealth of AI processing technologies built around GPUs from Nvidia allowed it to win a large long-term contract with Alphabet -- and that's a great sign that the company is in good position to win other big deals with leading tech customers.
SpaceX is also aiming to revolutionize the AI infrastructure market with its construction of orbital data centers. By putting data centers in space, the company could be able to leverage more direct and reliable access to solar energy and dramatically cut down on the high electricity expenses needed to run data centers.
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On the other hand, there are heat diffusion engineering problems associated with orbital data center technologies -- and other challenges as well. For starters, the data center hardware will need to be shipped into space. As the leader in low-cost rocket launches, SpaceX is uniquely positioned to handle the costs associated with the task.
There are also other big challenges involved. While orbital data centers may offer some substantial efficiency improvements when it comes to power sources, they may also be far more complicated and difficult when it comes to maintenance. Hardware components including GPUs, hard drives, and motherboards can wear out and need to be replaced, and it's currently far easier to do that on Earth than in space.
While it's possible that SpaceX will be able to leverage robotics technologies to make completing those kinds of tasks far more feasible, there are still a lot of operational obstacles involved in building and maintaining a thriving orbital data center at scale. They are a promising concept and could turn SpaceX into a huge winner in the AI infrastructure space, but investors should understand that the category is still speculative and could take a long time to come to fruition.
Since Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), aka SpaceX, conducted its initial public offering (IPO) early last month, shareholders have been on a nonstop thrill ride. The rocket launch, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company opened above its offering price, surging 19% on its first day of trading. SpaceX stock gained as much as 50% before falling back to Earth and now trades below its first day closing price of about $161.
History shows that the stock's erratic price movements will likely continue. Next week, that volatility could reach new heights as SpaceX faces its biggest hurdle yet.
Image source: Getty Images.
A busy daySome of Wall Street's biggest analysts have yet to issue a rating on SpaceX, and with good reason. Investment banks that were part of the IPO underwriting process are bound by a "quiet period," in which they refrain from publishing any research, commentary, ratings, or price targets on companies they have underwritten.
SpaceX was an historic IPO in many ways. One of which was that it attracted a syndicate of 23 underwriters for its record-breaking $85.7 billion listing. As a result, many of the investment banks that would have chimed in by now with their opinions have been silent due to the aforementioned quiet period. However, that silence will no doubt be broken on Tuesday, July 7, when the quiet period officially ends, freeing analysts to release their estimates on SpaceX stock.
That's not to say there haven't been any opinions issued. The most bullish comes courtesy of Arete Research analyst Andrew Beale, who issued a buy rating and a Street-high price target of $401, suggesting potential upside for investors of 154% compared to Wednesday's close. The analyst argues that investors don't yet fully appreciate the magnitude of the opportunity represented by the upcoming Starship rocket and StarlinkV3, the company's next-generation satellite. This one-two punch could open the door for SpaceX to compete for suburban broadband -- but neither the rocket nor the next-gen satellite is yet airborne.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, who issued a sell rating on SpaceX with a price target of $62, suggesting potential downside of 61% compared to Wednesday's closing price. The analyst argues that much of SpaceX's future growth will likely depend heavily on the company's reusable Starship rockets and its ability to effectively execute and commercialize its plan for orbital data centers -- of which there are simply no guarantees.
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Thus far, 13 analysts in all have issued opinions on SpaceX stock, according to The Wall Street Journal: Seven of those, or 63%, have a buy or strong buy rating; four analysts rate the stock a hold; and two have sell ratings. The average analyst price target is roughly $229, suggesting potential upside of 45%. So while Wall Street is largely positive about SpaceX's future, investors can expect an avalanche of new coverage when the quiet period ends on Tuesday.
Some investors might be tempted to buy SpaceX ahead of its big reveal. Others might be tempted to sell. I generally stay away from date- and event-driven buying and selling, as that type of short-term thinking is detrimental to maintaining a long-term outlook.
There's no way to know for sure how one analyst -- let alone 23 analysts -- will interpret the same information. As shown in the examples above, two of Wall Street's finest -- with access to the same data -- came to very different conclusions about what the future holds for SpaceX.
I'm watching the stock closely, but I haven't yet put down any of my hard-earned money to buy shares. In my opinion, it's still too early to do so with any degree of certainty. I plan to wait until after SpaceX's first (or even second) financial report before I feel I'll have enough information to make an informed decision. Given what we know and what we don't know, I don’t think SpaceX is a buy -- at least not yet.
As I've pointed out before, at roughly 46 times forward sales, SpaceX is pricey, particularly for a company with a limited public track record. To be clear, next week will be a busy one for the company. Not only is the quiet period over, but SpaceX stock is being added to the Nasdaq-100 and the associated index funds on Tuesday.
When you don’t know what to do, sometimes the best thing to do -- is nothing. That’s exactly what I plan to do.
Following its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) immediately became one of the world's largest publicly traded companies. The space tech and artificial intelligence (AI) company went public at a valuation of $1.77 trillion and has since seen its valuation march even higher, with its market capitalization sitting at $2.1 trillion as of this writing. Now, SpaceX is coming up on another milestone.
After the market closes on July 6, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index -- an index that includes the 100 largest, non-financial companies that trade on the Nasdaq stock exchange. As a result, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the Nasdaq-100 will be buying the stock so that their portfolios accurately reflect the index. In turn, the buying action could be a catalyst that works to send the company's share price higher. Does that mean SpaceX stock is a buy before July 7?
Image source: Getty Images.
Is SpaceX stock a hot buy ahead of its Nasdaq-100 inclusion? While SpaceX has seen some substantial swings since its IPO, it's also shown meaningful pricing support near the $160.95 per share level it closed at on the day of its public debut. As of this writing, the company's share price is just below that level and 17% from its $135 per share listing price.
With inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on the horizon and the promise of SpaceX being added to other major indexes in the not-too-distant future, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock gain ground between now and July 7. On the other hand, I also don't think that investors should rush to buy shares ahead of next week's big index inclusion milestone.
For starters, SpaceX stock does not trade in a vacuum -- and macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics will continue to have a significant impact on how its stock trades in the near term and the long term. I also think that the stock trades at hugely growth-dependent valuation levels that look difficult to justify right now.
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SpaceX recorded a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year on sales of approximately $18.7 billion. While it appears very likely that the business will see sales growth that exceeds last year's annual expansion of 33%, there's a good chance that heavy spending on the company's AI segment will also result in this year's annual loss coming in far above last year's level.
SpaceX is roughly three weeks removed from its IPO, and there's a risk that hype connected to its public debut and investors hoping to score gains with short-term trades are still propping up its valuation. There may also be a bigger "cash out" risk looming through the remainder of the year.
While SpaceX insiders are currently prohibited from selling their shares due to the post-IPO lockup period, roughly $800 billion in shares will become eligible for sale by October. Given that many inside shareholders have already seen massive gains on stock issued throughout SpaceX's time as a privately held company, there's a good chance that there will be a lot of selling action later in the year. With that in mind, I think investors will likely have the opportunity to purchase shares well below their current valuation levels by the end of the year.
CNBC’s Oliver Renick spent part of his July 2 segment on a tension defining SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) trading. A Daiwa Securities analyst opened Thursday labeling the stock’s valuation “catastrophic”. Options desks spent the same morning buying calls.
Shares are up roughly 9% off recent lows after a three-day bounce, closing at $157.54 on July 1 and trading around $157 as of this writing, down some 0.3%. The company joins the NASDAQ 100 on Tuesday (July 7), which makes this worth stopping on.
The bull-bear disconnect “Options flows continue to look bullish. That’s despite an analyst from daiwa securities this morning calling the stock’s valuation quote catastrophic.”
The valuation critique is not fringe. Jim Cramer, on his May 26 show, said “it’s very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation. But the bottom line is that people have been willing to pay up in the private markets, and I bet they’ll pay up in the public ones.” The public market has not obliged, with a current market cap around $2.07 trillion. That is far from the $350 billion employee tender at the end of 2024 and worth remembering when someone uses the word catastrophic.
Retail sentiment on Reddit tells the same split story. Monthly r/stocks and r/investing discussion has skewed bearish, with posts like “The math isn’t mathing on the SpaceX IPO” drawing thousands of upvotes. Meanwhile r/wallstreetbets runs a different playbook, headlined by “SPACEX Calls Are Now Dirt Cheap.”
What the call buying is really saying Renick pointed to the specific strikes. “What we saw earlier in the week was some pretty big call buying in the 160 and the 170 strikes. Those right now are pretty close to the money.”
Near-the-money calls are the least speculative way to bet on movement. Traders buying way out-of-the-money strikes are lottery-ticket shoppers. Traders paying up for 160s and 170s while the stock sits near 158 want direct exposure to the next move. Prediction markets echo that. On Polymarket, the probability SPCX finishes the week above $150 sits at 0.89, with the most likely weekly close pegged at $155 (0.54 probability). Above $165 collapses to 0.105. Traders are betting on a floor.
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Call buying at these strikes communicates upside conviction, capped.
Why this is a volatility story, not a guaranteed pop Index inclusion sounds like free money, and Renick addressed the temptation head on. “The inclusion will mean for the stock price due to so-called forced buyers, but the much clearer implication is that it’s going to raise the volatility for index fund holders.”
Every fund tracking the NASDAQ 100 via Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and its peers must buy SpaceX shares to match the index. That is the mechanical part. What it imports is a stock trading with volatility at 88 into an index whose own volatility sits near 27. For reference, S&P volatility is below 16, and even semiconductor volatility is at 60. The VIX itself closed at 16.45 on June 30, well within normal.
Renick landed the punchline. “Space right now is going to add to the growing gap between NASDAQ 100 and S&P volatility, which is a spread that’s at unprecedented highs.”
QQQ holders, many of whom have never made an active decision about SpaceX, are about to own a stock whose daily swings dwarf anything else in their portfolio. QQQ is up 15.9% year to date and 29% over the past year. Adding SpaceX changes the size of the daily move for QQQ holders.
The takeaway for a regular investor is not whether the Daiwa analyst is right or the call buyers are right. Both can be. The valuation is stretched by any private-market comparison, and the near-term flow is genuinely bullish. What changes on Tuesday is that a passive NASDAQ 100 position becomes an active volatility position, whether you asked for it or not. Look at your QQQ exposure with that in mind.
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@nasdaq's Kevin Davitt talks about SpaceX (SPCX) being added to the Nasdaq-100 and what it signals for index flows. He says that past additions have caused brief volatility spikes followed by a quick return to normal as the markets adjust.
Investors are probably still trying to figure out what to make of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%), or SpaceX, stock. It reached a high of $225.64 per share less than a week after its June 12 debut at $150 per share. However, a recent pullback has taken it to around $161 per share as of this writing, and it is unclear where it will go in the near term.
When looking ahead one year, we can assume that SpaceX will probably no longer benefit from post-IPO hype. Still, given the state of the company, the stock is more likely to struggle than prosper. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The current state of SpaceX Investors have taken to SpaceX because it incorporates many of Elon Musk's most successful companies, none of which are named Tesla. By buying this industrials stock that some might better classify as a communications stock, one invests in a space division that now dominates rocket launches, a connectivity business that includes satellite internet provider Starlink, and Musk's AI company, Grok.
SpaceX is also on track for accelerated growth. In the first quarter of 2026, it earned $4.7 billion in revenue, a 16% yearly increase, though that comparatively modest increase is likely an anomaly. Revenue was $18.7 billion in 2025, growing by 34% annually.
Analysts forecast 85% revenue growth in 2027, and even though it reported losses in its publicly available financial statements, they forecast a turn to profitability in 2027. Such factors will likely continue to support a premium valuation.
Still, since it appears overvalued right now, the question is how much of a premium investors will support. It is difficult to ignore that SpaceX stock trades at a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 106. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 15 times sales, and Micron Technology, whose revenue growth is well into the triple digits, currently trades at a 12 P/S ratio. Even Palantir Technologies, which has commanded an eye-popping premium since late 2024, trades at a 67 sales multiple.
Considering SpaceX's valuation, anything can happen over the next year. However, given the size of SpaceX's premium, the sales multiple is more likely to fall than rise over the next 12 months, which does not bode well for SpaceX stock during that time.
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Although anything can happen with SpaceX stock over the next 12 months, investors should probably expect a pullback.
Admittedly, the 85% revenue growth forecast makes SpaceX stock likely to maintain a premium price. That growth will also reduce the P/S ratio if the stock price stays the same, potentially easing valuation concerns and easing longer-term performance worries.
Unfortunately, triple-digit P/S ratios are extremely rare and price a stock for perfection, meaning any bad news will likely pressure the stock price. Thus, investors may need to exercise patience amid the likely struggles the stock faces over the next year.
The initial public offering (IPO) market in 2026 is testing how much new equity supply investors can absorb without selling the stocks that already drove the market higher. Renaissance Capital data shows that 79 U.S. IPOs have already raised $112.5 billion so far in 2026, up 625% year over year.
Image source: Getty Images.
JPMorgan Chase expects more than $260 billion of equity issuance to enter the market in 2026. With multiple IPOs, such as Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.71%), OpenAI, and Anthropic, in focus, the key question is where investment capital will come from.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could test market absorption SpaceX has already shown how much demand there can be for a mega-IPO. The company initially raised $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, and total proceeds later rose to $85.7 billion after underwriters bought additional shares.
OpenAI could create the next big demand for investor cash. Reuters has reported that the company could seek a valuation of up to $1 trillion, although its IPO may not arrive until 2027. A 2026 listing would add pressure to a market already absorbing the impact of the SpaceX IPO, while a delay to 2027 would spread that pressure over a longer period. Reuters also reported that Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO after a funding round valued it at $965 billion.
While the $200 billion risk is not a confirmed total from the three companies, it is a plausible scenario based on SpaceX's completed IPO, OpenAI's reported IPO ambitions, and the possibility of another large Anthropic offering. If OpenAI and Anthropic both list near trillion-dollar valuations, these IPOs may compete with existing AI winners for the same investor dollars.
Why the IPO wave could impact the entire equity market In their research paper, "In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis," Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen estimate that every $1 invested in stocks can add about $5 to total market value. That is because stock prices can move much more than the actual dollars entering or leaving the market. So, if investors sell stocks to fund new IPOs, the market impact could be several times larger than the cash raised. Hence, using a five-times multiplier, a $200 billion IPO wave could put roughly $1 trillion of market value at risk.
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However, that does not mean a crash is inevitable. It means a very large IPO wave can create pressure far beyond the cash raised if buyers fund allocations by selling existing stocks. The risk is greater because the current market is already tied closely tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.50%) earnings per share to rise 24% year over year to $340 in 2026, with AI infrastructure beneficiaries contributing roughly half of that growth.
But there is also a reason the market may be able to handle these IPOs. J.P. Morgan estimates that 2026 buybacks could reach about $1.5 trillion, returning cash to shareholders that could help fund some new IPO demand. The research firm also argues that, since the current market is much larger than in past IPO cycles, investors may have greater capacity to absorb new listings. Still, investors should watch the timing, valuation, float, and first trading response of IPOs to decide whether there is fresh AI demand or a shortage of fresh capital.
JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX's capital expenditures were $20 billion in 2025 and are on track to far outpace that amount this year. The company's shares are very expensive and highly volatile right now.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%), known as SpaceX, trade at a steep premium, and that valuation is built on more than the company launching rockets. A big part of the bull case is Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, which reached 10.3 million subscribers in the first quarter.
Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year. That growth matters because Starlink is the company's most profitable business right now. Those profits can help fund SpaceX's broader ambitions in space and artificial intelligence (AI), which together represent enormous growth potential for the company.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is starving for capital SpaceX may be best known as Elon Musk's rocket company, but the financial picture looks more like a vertically integrated technology infrastructure business with three operating segments: Connectivity (Starlink), Space, and AI.
In 2025, the company generated $18.6 billion in total revenue and incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion across all segments. Starlink was the only profitable business. The Connectivity segment delivered more than $11 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, providing SpaceX with a meaningful pool of internally generated capital.
SpaceX is directing most of its capital spending toward the AI segment, which may signal where management sees the greatest upside over the next few years. Of the $20.7 billion in capital expenditures last year, $12.7 billion went to the AI segment, which includes xAI (Grok).
The IPO raised $86 billion in new capital, boosting its cash and equivalents to $100 billion as of June 19. It didn't waste time in deploying this fresh capital, recently acquiring Anysphere and its leading enterprise AI coding platform, Cursor. The company is trying to accelerate AI capabilities, even if that means aggressive capital deployment.
That's why Starlink's profitability is strategically valuable, and it's expected to grow quite quickly over the next few years. Goldman Sachs estimates Starlink revenue could reach $144 billion by 2030. If segment margins hold, that would put the connectivity segment's operating profit at over $50 billion -- cash that could materially support SpaceX's plans in space and AI.
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Starlink is one piece of a bigger empire The long-term value of owning AI models, data centers, communication satellites, and reusable rocket technology under one roof is hard to quantify, since space remains a largely unexplored frontier.
However, SpaceX pegs the combined addressable market across space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure at $28.5 trillion. That helps put the stock's $2 trillion market cap in perspective, but it's still very expensive, trading at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue. To justify that valuation, revenue needs to grow rapidly.
Starlink subscriber growth will be crucial, but investors should watch the AI segment, since that's where the company is investing the most capital. SpaceX recently struck a cloud services deal to lease xAI's data center capacity to Anthropic, in which it will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. More deals like this could open another large and growing revenue stream and potentially justify the stock's valuation.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) recently went public, and the stock, which also goes by just SpaceX, will soon be added to many index funds. That may not sit well with risk-averse investors who don't want exposure to the extremely expensive stock, which trades at more than 100 times its revenue and which is already among the most valuable companies in the world, despite incurring massive losses.
There's ample incentive to avoid exposure to SpaceX, as the stock may not only prove volatile but also carry significant downside risk given its extremely high valuation. For investors who want to steer clear of SpaceX, funds that track the S&P 500 may be the way to go right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX isn't getting added to the S&P 500 anytime soon The Nasdaq loosened rules for adding stocks to the Nasdaq-100 index, and SpaceX is set to be included in there as early as next week. But the S&P 500 isn't bending its rules for SpaceX. Not only will it have to wait at least a year, but it will also need to be profitable -- which is likely to be a considerable barrier for the space company, which incurred $4.3 billion in losses during just the first three months of the year.
Meanwhile, as the company ramps up spending to pursue growth opportunities in space and artificial intelligence, its losses may become much larger in the future. It makes it incredibly unlikely that SpaceX will meet the criteria to be included in the S&P 500, a collection of leading U.S. stocks, anytime soon, regardless of how high its valuation may get.
S&P 500 index funds remain attractive options for long-term investing The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.34%) is a popular, low-cost option for tracking the S&P 500, with a gross expense ratio of only 0.0945%. It offers investors a simple, no-nonsense way to gain exposure to a wide range of stocks through a single investment. And with the index averaging gains of around 10% per year for decades, it makes for a suitable long-term investment to buy and forget about.
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There are also many other funds that track the index and focus on different aspects of it. But by focusing strictly on S&P 500 stocks and funds that track the index, you can ensure you have exposure only to those stocks. And until SpaceX attains consistent profitability, it won't be part of that illustrious group.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are trading marginally higher Thursday morning, performing in-line with the broader Industrials sector, which has climbed over 0.7%.
While company-specific news is light for the session, sentiment is potentially being anchored by SpaceX’s decision to extend Starlink connectivity support in Venezuela following recent major earthquakes.
Additionally, the stock continues to ride an index-inclusion tailwind. SpaceX is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100 before the opening bell on July 7, an institutional shift expected to trigger substantial passive buying from index-tracking funds as they rebalance their portfolios.
SpaceX stock is trading at depressed levels. What should traders watch with SPCX? What’s Happening With SpaceX Stock This Week?Starlink says it will provide free internet service through July 25 for new and existing customers in parts of Venezuela hit by twin earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5, after power and telecom damage drove a sharp connectivity drop on Wednesday.
The company also said it’s working to rapidly deploy Starlink terminals to the hardest-hit areas, while offering account credits, reactivation credits for previously canceled users, and free replacement kits for damaged equipment.
SpaceX has also been in executive-level discussions with Charter Communications about a consumer mobile phone partnership, a potential distribution catalyst for Starlink Mobile’s $10-per-month add-on through T-Mobile.
The talks would have Charter route some mobile traffic over its ground-based network, similar to Spectrum Mobile infrastructure rental agreements with T-Mobile and Verizon.
SPCX Stock: Critical Levels To WatchFrom a longer-term trend view, the stock is still in a powerful uptrend (up 535.01% over the past 12 months), and it remains well above its major moving averages—about 27.9% above the 20-day SMA and more than 376% above the 200-day SMA. That kind of separation usually signals strong trend control, but it can also mean the chart is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if momentum fades.
Momentum looks more "reset" than "extended" right now, with RSI at 49.35 (neutral), which suggests the stock isn’t currently stretched to the upside or downside. In plain terms, RSI helps gauge whether buying or selling pressure has become overheated; here, it reads like consolidation after a big run rather than a fresh breakout.
The moving-average structure is still constructive: the 20-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA, and the golden cross (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) that occurred in June continues to reinforce the longer-term bullish regime. With the 52-week high also set in June and the recent swing low in March, traders will often watch whether the stock can build a higher low above that March area to keep the trend intact.
Key Support: $147.00 — a nearby level where buyers previously stepped in, sitting right on top of the 52-week low zone ($147.11) What Is Space Exploration Technologies?Founded in 2002 and commonly known as SpaceX, the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures and operates a family of reusable rockets to launch various payloads into Earth orbit for government and commercial customers. Starting in 2019, the company began launching a constellation of its own communication satellites to provide mobile broadband and wireless services under the Starlink brand.
In early 2026, the company acquired xAI from its founder, Elon Musk, which operates a large language artificial intelligence model named Grok, a gigawatt-scale data center called Colossus, and the social media network X.
In the context of today’s news, Starlink’s disaster-response playbook (free service windows, rapid terminal deployment, and equipment replacement) is also a real-world stress test of the network’s resilience—and a reminder that connectivity can be a mission-critical product, not just a consumer convenience.
SPCX Stock Price Activity on ThursdaySPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX shares were up 0.70% at $158.65 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image: Shutterstock
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Short sellers piled into SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) faster than almost any newly public stock in recent memory, and the position is now enormous enough to matter to every long-term holder watching this thing settle. Roughly 31% of the free float, about 196 million shares, is sold short as of Tuesday, according to Ortex data reported by Reuters. That is the anchor number, and the arithmetic that flows from it is what makes the next few weeks interesting.
The 196 million share bet against SpaceX A week earlier, the short position looked ordinary for a hot IPO. Short interest sat at roughly 83 million shares, or about 13% of the free float, before more than doubling in a matter of days. Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg called the buildup “extraordinary for a stock that has been public less than a month.” Extraordinary is the right word for it. Most stocks take years to attract that kind of bearish crowd. SpaceX did it in about three weeks after its June 12, 2026 Nasdaq debut.
Why so much conviction on the short side? The pitch writes itself. A $1.2 trillion market cap for a company that still books most of its revenue from launches and Starlink subscriptions is a tall order to grow into, and the post-IPO stock action gave bears an opening. Shares slipped as much as 23% in the days after the debut, and when the stock bottomed near $153 last week, shorts were up roughly $2.5 billion on paper.
Why the squeeze math is wild Then came the rebound, and the paper gains vanished. Ortex now pegs the mark-to-market loss for shorts at about $760 million since the IPO. The mechanical part is what should get a long-term holder’s attention. Every $1 swing in SpaceX’s share price translates into roughly $200 million in gains or losses for the short book, per Ortex’s estimate. Think of it as a very large lever with a very short handle. Small moves in the stock produce very not-small moves in the P&L of the people betting against it.
The kicker is how cheap the trade still is to hold. The cost to borrow shares remains around 1%, which is unusually low for a stock this crowded on the short side. Cheap borrow means bears are not being financially bullied out of the position by carrying costs, so they can sit. But sitting only works if the stock cooperates. If it keeps grinding higher, the size of the short interest becomes its own accelerant. Hillerberg put it plainly. “(It’s) a lot of potential fuel if it tips into a squeeze.”
How the stock has traded The stock has been a two-way fight. SPCX went public at $160.95 on June 12, 2026, and closed June 30 at $170.86, a 6.16% gain over its short trading history. The one-week move into June 30 was +9.45%, from $156.11 to $170.86. Today, July 1, the stock is down to $157 from that $170.86 close. That is the whipsaw shorts are living inside. Prediction markets are reading it in real time too. Polymarket assigned a 95% probability to SPCX finishing July 1 down, and a 75% probability the stock closes above $150 for the week of June 29.
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The bull argument does not require you to fall in love with the valuation. It only requires you to respect the mechanics.
With 31% of the free float short and borrow essentially free, any sustained bid forces bears to buy back stock they do not own, which pushes the price further, which forces more covering. That is the loop.
Elon Musk has a documented history of public feuds with short sellers, which adds a wildcard the bearish spreadsheet cannot model. And the operating story is not a stub. Starlink now runs roughly 9,600 satellites and serves customers across 164 countries as of March 31, 2026, while Falcon rockets have flown at over a 99% mission success rate. None of that guarantees a squeeze. It does guarantee that if one starts, there is a real business underneath the fireworks.
What long-term holders should take from the setup For a retirement-focused holder, the takeaway is to understand that at 31% short interest and $200 million of P&L per dollar of price movement, the near-term volatility in SPCX is mechanically manufactured by the short book. The composite sentiment score sits at 60.49, bullish with medium confidence.
The next real catalyst is the lockup, which Jim Cramer flagged as a meaningful trading variable when the IPO priced. Cramer noted Musk’s “ironclad” grip on SpaceX through his 94% ownership of Class B shares carrying 10 votes each. Until then, the bears own the risk of being right about valuation and wrong about timing. That is a bad combination when the fuel gauge reads full.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SpaceX (SPCX) just pulled off the biggest stock market debut in history. On June 12, 2026, the rocket and satellite company priced its IPO at $135 a share, opened at $150, and closed its first day up nearly 19%. If you’ve been searching for SpaceX stock, watching the SpaceX IPO stock price move, or simply asking whether SpaceX stock is a good buy right now, you’re far from alone – demand for this listing broke records across nearly every major brokerage.
This piece breaks down what SpaceX actually does, why Starlink matters more than people realize, what happened on IPO day, and what you should weigh before deciding if SPCX belongs in your portfolio.
What SpaceX Actually IsFounded by Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX built its name on reusable rockets – a breakthrough that crushed the old cost structure of getting anything into orbit. By the time it went public, the company had completed roughly 650 orbital launches with a success rate of over 99%, the vast majority of which were on reused boosters.
However, SpaceX will no longer be just a rocket company. Earlier this year, it absorbed xAI into the business, folding Musk’s AI venture (and, by extension, X/Twitter) directly into SpaceX’s structure. The pitch to investors now is bigger than space travel: SpaceX wants to put AI data centers in orbit, starting as early as 2028, using its satellite and launch infrastructure as the backbone.
Starlink Is Quietly Running the ShowWhat’s actually paying the bills is Starlink, not rockets,
Starlink went from a 10,000-user beta in 2021 to over 10 million paying subscribers by early 2026, spread across 160+ countries. Revenue followed the same curve – $11.4 billion in 2025, up 48% year-over-year, accounting for 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue. By Q1 2026, that share climbed to 69%.
More importantly, Starlink is the only part of SpaceX that’s actually profitable. It pulled in $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025 while the rocket business lost money and the AI division ran a loss of $6 billion. Analysts now project Starlink revenue near $15.5 billion for 2026.
There’s a wrinkle worth knowing, though: average revenue per subscriber has been falling, down to roughly $81/month as SpaceX prioritized growing its global user base over squeezing more out of each customer. That trend reversed slightly in May 2026, when SpaceX raised Starlink prices by up to $10/month across the board.
Inside the SpaceX IPOThis wasn’t just a big IPO. It was the biggest ever recorded.
SpaceX initially sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion – instantly making it more valuable than Tesla. After underwriters exercised their full overallotment option, total gross proceeds climbed to roughly $85.7 billion, with the valuation settling around $2.3 trillion.
On day one, SPCX opened at $150, spiked as high as $176.52, and closed at $161.11 – a gain of 19% from the offer price. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire on paper that same day.
As of July 1, 2026, SPCX is trading at $170.86, with an intraday range of $161.64 to $172.40 and a 52-week high of $225.64. That shows how wide the swings have been.
One more catalyst on the horizon: SPCX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, 2026, which analysts estimate could trigger around $4.3 billion in passive inflows as index funds are required to buy the stock. That’s a meaningful near-term tailwind to be aware of.
What retail investors actually received at IPO, though, was a different story. Investors requesting 1,000 shares through Robinhood walked away with as few as 17. One investor who bumped their order to 4,250 shares through Schwab received just 147. Every major platform gave eligible applicants something, but allocations were thin across the board.
What Wall Street Is SayingWedbush initiated coverage on SPCX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, calling SpaceX a “major hyperscaler” and anchoring the bull case on its AI infrastructure ambitions.
The bear case is harder to ignore, though. SpaceX’s prospectus revealed a nearly $5 billion GAAP loss in 2025 and up to $119 billion in planned capital spending ahead. Musk himself has flagged the “genuine risk of bankruptcy” if Starship can’t hit a reliable launch cadence. That’s not typical IPO language – and it’s worth taking seriously.
How to Buy SpaceX Stock If you missed the IPO allocation window, buying SpaceX stock now is simple:
Bottom LineSpaceX delivered the largest IPO in history, and SPCX is trading at $158 levels as of today, and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion next week is adding a near-term catalyst. Starlink is the real engine behind the valuation: already profitable, still growing fast, and still the only segment consistently making money.
The risks are real, though. A near-$5 billion annual loss, a Starship program that hasn’t proven its reliability, and a $2+ trillion valuation that demands near-perfect execution – these aren’t footnotes. They’re the actual story.
Whether SPCX belongs in your portfolio comes down to one honest question: how much execution risk are you willing to hold for a piece of what might be the most consequential company of the next decade?
FAQsShould I buy SpaceX stock after the IPO?
Depends on your risk tolerance. Starlink’s growth is real and already profitable. The AI bet and Starship dependency aren’t proven yet. If you can stomach volatility, a position makes sense. If not, let the stock settle and revisit.
What happened with the SpaceX IPO?
SpaceX raised $75 billion at $135 a share, jumped over 19% on debut, and closed its first day above a $2 trillion market cap. Retail demand far exceeded supply at every major brokerage.
How does SpaceX make money?
Three ways: Starlink subscriptions (the only consistently profitable segment), rocket launch contracts, and AI revenue through xAI and Grok.
Is SPCX overvalued?
At $2.3 trillion against a near-$5 billion annual loss, the valuation is aggressive. But Starlink’s profitability and growth trajectory give bulls a credible counterargument. So, no clean answer.
What is Starlink’s revenue?
$11.4 billion in 2025, projected to be near $15.5 billion in 2026.
What’s next for SPCX stock?
The Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 is the immediate catalyst – analysts expect roughly $4.3 billion in passive buying tied to index rebalancing. Beyond that, watch Starship’s launch cadence. That’s the variable everything else depends on.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.13%) just conducted one of the largest IPOs in history. The company aimed to raise around $75 billion in new capital. Due to high demand, however, the company ended up raising a total of $85.7 billion once underwriter options were included.
Many investors were then surprised to see the company return to capital markets just weeks after the IPO, raising an additional $25 billion through a bond sale. According to CNBC, the sudden bond deal "highlighted the group's intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations."
Let's break down exactly what that means.
Image source: Getty Images.
Here's why SpaceX raised another $25 billion in capital While many think of SpaceX as a space stock, the company is actually an artificial intelligence (AI) stock. More than 90% of the company's claimed total addressable market is exclusively related to AI opportunities.
Long-term, AI may not be a capital-intensive business. Once data centers are built and software is designed, deploying these services should be relatively low-cost, aside from the energy requirements. However, renewables like solar could further increase long-term service deployment costs.
Right now, however, most AI infrastructure businesses are extremely capital-intensive. Huge amounts of infrastructure need to be built, all using pricey third-party GPUs and strained energy supplies. These are the "intense financing needs" and "capital spending plans" the CNBC report is referring to.
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The CNBC report includes one other rationale for the bond sale: "future refinancing obligations." It's important to remember that SpaceX is not profitable. In 2025, the company lost around $4.9 billion.
If SpaceX wants to continue spending heavily to scale its AI business -- plus invest in other capital-intensive areas like rocket development and satellite launches -- the company may not be profitable for years to come. Therefore, SpaceX will need to continue to tap capital markets to stay financially afloat.
In short, SpaceX will need a lot of capital to survive and grow, now and in the future. Raising as much capital as possible while optimism is high seems like a smart strategic decision.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX may put other mega-cap IPOs on the fast track.
According to Kathmere Capital Management's chief investment officer, it could emerge as the ultimate blueprint for Silicon Valley — especially when it comes to the expected Anthropic and OpenAI public debuts.
"It would not surprise me at all to see a similar dynamic play out with some of these [IPOs] set to come in the months ahead," Nick Ryder told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week.
Ryder, whose firm provides financial advice to individuals and businesses, contends market conditions will determine whether upcoming mega-cap IPOs will rip a page from SpaceX's playbook.
"We've been in… a pretty historic two- [or] three-month rally for the equity market [which] was feeding into [SpaceX]," added Ryder. "When these other mega IPOs eventually come to market the environment might be different, and so it's really hard to predict how it will be."
SpaceX since public debut
SpaceX, which went public on June 12 with a historic $2 trillion-plus market cap, soared 53% above its $150 opening price in just three trading days. But the big gain didn't last. As of Wednesday's close, shares of the aerospace and satellite company are up nearly 17% since the debut.
Index inclusionAlso notable: SpaceX is one of the fastest stocks to get added to major indexes. It's already in the Russell 1000. Now, it's set to be added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 6 after the market close.
Arne Noack is the FTSE Russell head of equity & multi-asset indices for the Americas. He sees the indexes themselves, rather than SpaceX, as the true blueprint for upcoming IPOs.
"As index providers, [we] have put in place a blueprint that is clearly visible for anyone… meaning there is a fast-track eligibility. If you meet certain thresholds, you're potentially eligible for index inclusion," Noack said.
A heavily hyped initial public offering (IPO). An impressive post-IPO pop. A subsequent pullback. Investors have seen this story play out before. And they're seeing it again with Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.80%).
SpaceX delivered the biggest IPO in history. Its shares soared over the next few days following the IPO. Now, though, the stock is down roughly 22% below its peak. How long can SpaceX go? What comes next for the highly followed space technology company's shares? Here's what history suggests.
Image source: Getty Images.
The IPO stock playbook University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter analyzed thousands of U.S. IPOs since 1980. He found that the average IPO stock jumped 19% on its first day of trading. Guess how big SpaceX's day one gain was? Pat yourself on the back if you answered 19%.
Whether or not an IPO stock soars initially, though, early pullbacks are also commonplace. That's especially the case for stocks that receive extensive media attention. For example, Tesla's (TSLA +1.20%) share price fell by more than 30% following its 2011 IPO. Meta Platforms (META +8.88%), then known as Facebook, lost more than half of its market cap in the first four months of trading.
Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006, the average stock plunged around 50% below its IPO price at some point during the 12 months following the public listing. The average first-year returns for these stocks were roughly 33% losses.
But were long-term investors richly rewarded for being patient and waiting? Sometimes. Holding onto Tesla and Meta paid off tremendously for early investors. However, nine of the 15 largest U.S. IPO stocks have been losers for those who bought on the first day of trading. Rivian (RIVN 0.98%) is an especially instructive example, with its shares plunging more than 80% since the IPO.
Judging by the history of other major IPOs, the worst might not be over for SpaceX. Granted, the current rebound could continue for a while. However, SpaceX could decline by nearly 30% if it moves similarly to previous big IPO stocks.
One key tailwind for SpaceX, though, could be its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index after the market close on July 6, 2026. All exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that track an index must own the index's underlying stocks.
On the other hand, SpaceX could also have a ticking time bomb on its hands. Following the company's second-quarter earnings report (likely in mid-August), 20% of eligible insider shares can be sold. This number will increase by 10% if the stock trades at least 30% higher than its IPO price during five of 10 consecutive trading days leading up to the Q2 update.
SpaceX also has other time-based IPO lockup period expirations. Insiders can sell up to 7% of shares at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. After the Q3 earnings update, up to 28% more shares can be sold. Insider selling at high volumes would almost certainly create significant downward pressure on SpaceX's share price.
Math is more important than history. Mark Twain is often credited as saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." It's possible this adage could play out with SpaceX, with the stock plummeting as other high-profile IPO stocks have during their first year of trading.
However, SpaceX's market cap remains above $2.2 trillion. That's an astronomical valuation for a company that generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year. Sure, SpaceX is growing. But its growth isn't enough to justify the premium pricing at this point.
I think math is more important to SpaceX than history. Unfortunately, neither looks encouraging for investors considering buying the stock on the dip.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.80%) delivered one of history's biggest stock market events just recently: the largest initial public offering ever. SpaceX, raising $75 billion in the operation, then saw its shares rise nearly 20% from the $135 offer price on its first day of trading. And the exercise of an overallotment option brought the total of funds raised to more than $85 billion.
Since that time -- the IPO was on June 12 -- all eyes have been on SpaceX stock. Investors may be intrigued by the offer itself, but also by the company's leader, Elon Musk, and his ambitious projects. Now, a new milestone lies right around the corner. SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100, an index including the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq, on July 7.
Will SpaceX soar after that time? History offers a compellingly clear answer.
Image source: Getty Images.
An interesting mix of businesses First, let's consider why investors are so interested in SpaceX -- and this has to do with the company's interesting mix of growth businesses and its leadership. SpaceX is, as the name suggests, an expert in rocket launches. It aims to make launches cheaper and more efficient through its reusable technology -- and so far, it's made significant progress here. For example, NASA says that SpaceX's Falcon 9 back in 2010 reduced launch costs by a mind-boggling 85%. The goal now is to reduce costs by more than 99%, and a key step is just ahead: SpaceX aims to launch its fully reusable spacecraft, Starship, with payloads later this year.
SpaceX's second business is also closely linked to space: It's the satellite-based connectivity unit, Starlink, and is currently the company's biggest revenue driver. Last year, it brought in $11.4 billion on SpaceX's total of $18 billion. And Starlink membership, soaring from 2.3 million three years ago to more than 10 million today, offers us reason to be optimistic about growth.
Finally, SpaceX's third business is artificial intelligence (AI). Now, this might not seem space-related -- but it actually is. One of this unit's goals is to operate data centers in space, and the practical -- and cost-saving -- part of this is that SpaceX may use its own rockets to make this happen. And SpaceX also may use its rockets for the transport needs of Starlink.
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Elon Musk at the helm So SpaceX's businesses are diversified, yet they are complementary at the same time. And each may deliver a considerable amount of growth. Some investors also like the idea that Elon Musk is at the helm since he is known for being ambitious and innovative.
All of this is very positive, but it's also important to keep in mind that some of SpaceX's biggest goals involve technology that hasn't been fully developed or proven. And in order to develop that technology, SpaceX must invest billions of dollars. In fact, capital expenditures for its AI business last year reached $12 billion and helped push the company to a net loss. All of this represents risk. So even though SpaceX may be an exciting company, it's not the best investment for every investor, particularly at today's price.
At the current level, the stock trades at more than 100x sales, so it isn't cheap.
SPCX PS Ratio (Annual) data by YCharts
Entering the Nasdaq-100 Now, let's consider the upcoming Nasdaq-100 entry. This is due to the new "fast track" procedure that offers companies admission after only 15 trading days -- as long as they are among the 40 biggest in the index in terms of market value. SpaceX makes the cut and will join as of July 7. This means that funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 must add SpaceX shares, and this buying activity may lift the stock.
But this doesn't necessarily mean the stock will soar, as history shows us. A look at recent Nasdaq-100 additions -- added June 22 of this year -- didn't result in significant gains for those players.
ALAB data by YCharts
A look back farther in time, to 2024, when Palantir Technologies, Strategy, and Axon Enterprise joined the Nasdaq-100, shows all three actually declined in the 10 days to follow.
PLTR data by YCharts
So, while SpaceX could see a slight pop, as funds scoop up the shares, significant positive movement isn't guaranteed. What does this mean for you? In any case, short-term stock movements shouldn't be a concern. When investing, it's crucial to hold onto stocks for the long term, at least five years, to truly benefit from the company's growth. So, you shouldn't worry about buying SpaceX before a particular event, such as this Nasdaq-100 entry.
Instead, it's a better idea to take your time and consider the company's upcoming earnings reports before deciding whether to get in on this exciting but risky stock.
When shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.80%) opened to the public at $150 per share on June 12, some interested investors had difficulty filling their orders. With massive demand for the stock in its first few days of trading, the price shot up to an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16.
Since then, however, it's been a different story. By late June, it had given up most of those gains, and even briefly traded below $150. As of the close of trading July 1, SpaceX stock was changing hands for under $158 -- around 5% above where it opened to the public on June 12.
There appear to be two reasons for this decline, as well as two upcoming events that could drive meaningful short-term price movements for the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
The stock price falls as demand fades Highly anticipated initial public offerings (IPOs) can soar during their first few days of trading based on excitement alone. After all, investors have been hearing about these private companies for years, but were never able to buy shares. Many who buy in early do so because they don't want to miss out on what could be the next Amazon or Nvidia.
After a few days, however, those who particularly wanted to own the stock probably have already bought it. Active demand starts to decline. At that point, there isn't much left to help propel the stock price higher over the short term.
Then came the company's announcement of a $25 billion bond offering on June 22. That debt sale, coming so soon after the IPO, created fresh worries about the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX's ambitions. That day alone, shares dropped by more than 12% to close at $154.60.
What moves the SpaceX stock from here Over the next two months, two events could create short-term price movements for SpaceX stock. On July 7, the company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index, which includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. As a consequence, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track that index will have to buy SpaceX shares, which may prop up the stock price in the short term.
In August, SpaceX is expected to deliver its first earnings report as a publicly traded company. There may not be much new information in that readout, as SpaceX just went public, but based on recent trading, it's hard to imagine a muted response to whatever the company presents.
Perhaps more important is that the arrival of that earnings report will trigger the end of one of the company's lock-up periods, allowing insiders and early investors to start selling a fraction of their shares.
SpaceX created a staggered system for when insiders are allowed to sell shares. Starting on the second full day of trading after that first earnings report, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their eligible, previously locked-up shares. If the stock is trading 30% or more above the IPO price -- so, $175.50 -- those insiders can sell another 10% of their shares.
There's likely to be a lot of price action over the next two months, but that doesn't suggest the stock price will make meaningful moves higher or lower. It may remain stuck in a range for the short term, but that's not as important for long-term investing.
What will be more important is seeing continuous progress from SpaceX in building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which will allow it to capitalize on what it predicts will be a $26.5 trillion total addressable market in AI.
Elon Musk is the largest shareholder of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.82%), or SpaceX, with about a 42% stake. He also holds 82% of the voting power through ownership of Class B shares, effectively giving him full control of the leading space company.
While most SpaceX insiders can start selling their shares this year, Musk and certain other significant investors are subject to an extended lockup period. This structure is a positive sign for the company's shareholders and reveals aspects of SpaceX's financing strategy.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
How SpaceX's lockup period works IPOs have traditionally had 180-day lockup periods during which insiders can't sell their shares. SpaceX took a different approach to spread out insider selling and avoid a single selling period that causes a sharp decline in the stock price.
Insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares on the second full trading day after SpaceX releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, plus an additional 10% if the stock meets a performance trigger. Additional percentages unlock across six more selling windows that end 180 days after the IPO date.
Musk's shares are locked for a full year. The earliest he can sell is 366 days after the IPO. An extended lockup period is rarely a bad thing, as it shows that the founder and largest shareholder has skin in the game.
In fairness, even when Musk can sell his shares, he can't exactly cash out. That would send the stock price into a tailspin. But the lockup ensures that Musk and other significant investors must wait until the company has been trading for a year before making any moves.
What does this signal about SpaceX's cash strategy? SpaceX is spending heavily, and its extended lockup period indicates that it plans to continue using equity and debt to finance major expenses. A lockup is a mechanism for protecting the stock price and the company's reputation. A founder selling shares as soon as possible shows a lack of confidence, which can sink the stock and make the market see the company as a risky bet. SpaceX will then have less buying power when issuing equity and pay higher rates when taking on debt.
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SpaceX has already used both these financing methods since going public. On June 16, it announced an agreement to buy Cursor, an AI coding company, for $60 billion in an all-stock deal. On June 22, it held a $25 billion bond sale to repay the bridge loan it used to buy xAI earlier this year.
However, this cash strategy is also by necessity because SpaceX is unprofitable. It reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, and free cash flow was -$9.1 billion in Q1 2026. Although the lockup period is somewhat reassuring, buying SpaceX stock remains extremely risky, especially given its market cap of $2.2 trillion (as of June 29). You may want to wait for the next couple of earnings reports to see what kind of cash it's bringing in before considering an investment.
Elon Musk raises his phone towards the sky during a joint news conference with T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert (not pictured) at the SpaceX Starbase, in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., August 25, 2022. REUTERS/Adrees Latif/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
July 1 (Reuters) - Elon Musk on Wednesday denied a Wall Street Journal report that SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab showed investors and other stakeholders a prototype of an AI-focused device ahead of its blockbuster IPO.
"Utterly false," Musk said in a post on X, without elaborating.
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The Journal had reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that the prototype handset-like device was designed to run on a proprietary operating system, contained AI technology from xAI and would use Qualcomm's (QCOM.O), opens new tab Snapdragon chips.
The report added that SpaceX had told some investors the project remained in its early stages, with the design still evolving and no certainty the device would ultimately be built.
SpaceX has invested billions of dollars to expand beyond its core launch and satellite internet businesses, pouring money into AI infrastructure, xAI's Grok large language model and plans for space-based computing as Musk seeks to position the company at the center of the AI race.
SpaceX and Qualcomm did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters reported in February that SpaceX had plans to develop a mobile device connected to its Starlink satellite internet constellation that could rival smartphones.
Musk said in January that a Starlink phone was "not out of the question at some point," adding that such a device would be very different from current phones.
Last month, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab unveiled a prototype AI-powered badge device for workers featuring Qualcomm wearable chips, pitching it as an always-connected assistant that uses AI agents, voice, a touchscreen and a camera to help users complete tasks.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
ToplineSpaceX CEO Elon Musk called a recent report the company showed investors a prototype handheld, iPhone-like device designed for interacting with artificial intelligence systems “utterly false”—although reports have continued indicating the company may be trying to expand its retail offerings.
A report indicated the company was showing a prototype handheld AI device to investors.
VCG via Getty Images
Key FactsAccording to a report in the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX showed some investors a prototype similar to an iPhone but “slimmer,” which would run on SpaceX’s proprietary operating system.
The device would also use AI technology from xAI, which SpaceX absorbed in February, and use chips from Qualcomm, the Journal reported citing people familiar with the matter.
However, the device is reportedly still in a prototype phase—no name for the object has been reported, and it is unclear if it will ever be released to the public.
Musk rejected the report outright, responding to commentary about the device on X by calling it “utterly false.”
The SpaceX chief has frequently pushed back against reports about the company developing an iPhone-like competitor—flatly stating “we are not developing a phone” after a similar report from Reuters in February.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Forbes.
TangentSpeculation about a possible mobile device from SpaceX comes as the company reportedly plans to expand its business into retail mobile phone service. Chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell told investors the company was considering plans to offer a terrestrial mobile phone service, the Financial Times first reported last week. The same day, Bloomberg reported the company was in talks with Charter Communications about a partnership to use the internet provider’s ground infrastructure for its phone traffic. SpaceX already partners with T-Mobile to provide direct to cell satellite phone service using its Starlink satellites.
Crucial Quote“SpaceX has a long way to go before successfully manufacturing a consumer device at scale and competing against the leading platforms,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote after the report on Wednesday. “Musk-led companies are given a massive benefit of the doubt when it comes to product promises (which translates into enormous valuation premiums at SPCX and TSLA based on products that are more ideas than reality), but it’s hard to imagine SpaceX becoming a force in consumer electronics.” SpaceX’s stock price is on a downswing Wednesday, having dropped 7.3% as of around 3:30 p.m. EDT. The slump drove Musk’s net worth down by more than $50 billion, eliminating his status as a trillionaire.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.80%) will join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, after Nasdaq adjusted its rules to provide a "Fast Entry" option for eligible companies. Funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, will need to buy SpaceX stock after market close on July 6.
JPMorgan estimates that this could drive $4.3 billion in passive inflows into SpaceX. Considering SpaceX has a tiny float -- only about 4% -- that kind of investment may push the price up. Should you buy before then to take advantage?
Image source: Getty Images.
There are a few problems with this strategy. Any boost SpaceX gets will be temporary and unrelated to its long-term value. It could pull back just as quickly, in which case you don't come out ahead unless you take your profits immediately. This is trading, and it's much riskier and far less effective for building wealth than investing.
Also, most investors who follow SpaceX know when it's joining the Nasdaq-100. It's a good bet that plenty of people will buy the stock in anticipation of its index inclusion, which could lead to a much smaller bump than expected, or none at all.
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It only makes sense to buy SpaceX if you think it's a good investment. While this space stock has potential, it's extremely risky and volatile. This is a company worth over $2 trillion as of June 30, despite losing $4.9 billion last year. Numbers like that matter much more than inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, and they're one of the reasons you may be better off waiting to invest in SpaceX.
JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Lyle Daly has positions in Invesco QQQ Trust. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.71%), better known as SpaceX, is set to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100. Inclusion into major stock market indexes often triggers automatic buying from institutional funds that track these benchmarks -- potentially boosting stock prices in the short term.
Let's explore how chasing event-driven momentum usually distracts investors from the deeper fundamentals that truly matter for long-term wealth generation.
Image source: Getty Images.
What is the Nasdaq-100? The Nasdaq-100 is a stock market index comprised of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Inclusion in a major index usually leads to increased trading, broader analyst coverage, and passive investment inflows from exchange-traded funds. For SpaceX, this achievement underscores its transition into a major publicly traded company and signals mainstream acceptance of its role across the aerospace and technology industries.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why event-driven buying is dangerous Since going public last month, SpaceX has exhibited significant volatility. Investors relying solely on the news around the Nasdaq-100 inclusion risk buying shares at an inflated price driven by temporary enthusiasm.
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Index inclusions may lead to gains in the short term, but these rises are usually followed by sharp corrections once traders take their profits. These dynamics highlight the speculative nature of timing your purchases around singular catalysts.
Always keep a long-term mindset Deciding whether to invest in SpaceX stock should be rooted in conviction around the company's ambitions in space exploration, expanding low-orbit satellite networks, and building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. These segments represent transformative opportunities that could generate meaningful growth over the coming decades.
However, approaching SpaceX -- or any stock -- through a trading mindset that attempts to front-run momentum events ultimately diverges from prudent, disciplined investing principles focused on long-term potential rather than fleeting catalysts. While SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is noteworthy, it is not enough to justify an immediate buy.
Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX (SPCX 7.71%), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public on June 12 at a valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. It went public at $135 per share, started trading at $150, and hit a record high of $225.64 on June 16.
But as of this writing, SpaceX's stock trades at about $160. Many investors who hopped on the bandwagon in its first four days are now underwater. That volatile market debut should teach investors four valuable lessons about hot IPOs like SpaceX -- and how they should approach OpenAI and Anthropic, two of the market's most eagerly anticipated AI IPOs, in the future.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Valuations matter When SpaceX went public, it was already valued at 95 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. At its peak market cap of $2.66 trillion, it was valued at 142 times its trailing sales. Those were sky-high valuations, even for a company that grew its revenue by 33% in 2025. As of this writing, SpaceX is worth $2.1 trillion, or 112 times last year's sales.
OpenAI was most recently valued at $852 billion, and its founders hope to go public with a market cap of $1 trillion. That would be 50 times its annualized revenue run rate of $20 billion at the end of 2025, making it seem more reasonably valued than SpaceX.
Anthropic, valued at $965 billion after its latest funding round, only had an annualized revenue run rate of $9 billion at the end of 2025. If it's also targeting a $1 trillion IPO, it would debut at 111 times its annualized revenue -- making it more comparable to SpaceX.
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2. Profits matter SpaceX was actually profitable in 2025, as Starlink's profits offset its space division's losses. But this year, it acquired xAI (which owns Grok and X) in an all-stock acquisition before its IPO. After recasting its 2025 financials to account for that acquisition, it became deeply unprofitable. The critics claimed that Musk was bailing out xAI at the expense of SpaceX's shareholders.
OpenAI and Anthropic -- which are both unprofitable -- will also be closely scrutinized when they go public. OpenAI is still racking up steep losses, but Anthropic's rapid expansion in the enterprise market (with tools like Claude Code) is quickly reducing its operating losses. Anthropic even expects to post its first adjusted operating profit this year.
So even though Anthropic might go public at a higher price-to-sales ratio than OpenAI, its clearer path toward profitability might attract more investors. OpenAI, which posted a net loss of $38.5 billion on just $13.1 billion in revenue in calendar 2025, faces a tougher uphill battle.
3. The float matters SpaceX floated just 4% of its shares in its IPO. That low supply, along with the market's record demand, fueled its initial rally. It also enabled Elon Musk, who still holds a voting stake of up to 85% through his super-voting shares, to maintain firm control of the company.
In other words, investors are paying a premium to own a tiny sliver of SpaceX and never have a voice in its business decisions. SpaceX will also continue to dilute those investors by issuing more shares to cover its acquisitions and stock-based compensation expenses.
OpenAI and Anthropic plan to follow the same playbook by floating 5%-10% of their shares. Therefore, both stocks could experience volatile market debuts -- and investors shouldn't expect any big institutional investors to sway their business strategies.
4. Retail investors matter Last but not least, we should see if OpenAI and Anthropic deliberately offer their shares to retail investors. SpaceX offered more than 20% of its shares directly to retail investors, generating significant market hype among smaller investors ahead of its market debut.
Some investors might think that SpaceX was "democratizing" the IPO process by allocating more shares to retail brokerages. Still, I believe it was to offset the lower demand from institutional investors who were wary of paying nearly 100 times sales for an unprofitable company. Investors should be cautious if OpenAI and Anthropic do the same thing.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.71%) is undeniably a category leader. The company's rocket-launching services dominate the market, and its satellite internet and mobile services are also clear-cut frontrunners in markets with significant long-term growth potential. In addition to those very promising positions, the company is also a compelling player in the artificial intelligence (AI) processing market and is ramping up investments to become a top competitor in the category.
And yet, I'm not ready to buy the stock. Here's why.
SpaceX undeniably has a lot of promise SpaceX provides bleeding-edge technologies across multiple categories. The company revolutionized rocketry by developing launch-and-land rockets that can be reused for subsequent missions. Thanks to these capabilities, the company has been able to provide launch services to third-party customers at very cost-effective price points. The company accounted for roughly 51% of total global orbital launches last year and 85% of total satellite launches.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company's launch capabilities also give it huge advantages in the satellite-based mobile and internet services space. SpaceX's Starlink platform is a leading provider in these categories, and the company's strengths in launch technologies mean it can get communications satellites into space at prices that competitors will likely struggle to match for a long time.
Along with its rocket launch and satellite communication technologies, SpaceX is also rapidly expanding its position in the AI processing market. Of the $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM) outlined in the company's initial public offering (IPO) prospectus, management estimates that $26.5 trillion of that TAM comes from AI technologies and services. SpaceX's goal of building a massive constellation of orbital data centers looks highly ambitious and comes with a range of technological challenges, but the company that solved the challenges involved with reusable rockets is arguably the one best positioned to make large-scale, space-based AI processing a reality.
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SpaceX's tech is incredible, but that doesn't mean the stock is right now SpaceX has already delivered revolutionary technologies, and I think there's a good chance its capabilities will play a significant role in advancing key tech trends through the next decade and beyond. The company has achieved laudable breakthroughs and scaling initiatives, and I think it would be a mistake to bet against it continuing to advance its forefront positions at the edges of highly influential tech trends. On the other hand, there is still the question of valuation.
With a market capitalization of roughly $2.07 trillion, the company is valued at roughly 111 times the $18.7 billion in revenue it recorded last year. Admittedly, SpaceX will likely see a meaningful acceleration for its sales growth this year -- with major AI compute deals with Alphabet and other customers aiding its revenue expansion, and strong support for its Starlink and rocket launching businesses also adding to growth.
On the other hand, spending also looks poised to ramp dramatically going forward -- and I think risks related to interest rates and the overall macroeconomic backdrop make SpaceX's valuation profile too risky in the current environment.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has shown investors a prototype of a “handset-like” AI device, reports The Wall Street Journal.
The prototype is reportedly sleeker and slimmer than an iPhone, making us wonder if it’s something between a small touchscreen phone and a Rabbit R1. SpaceX reportedly showed the device to investors and stakeholders before it went public, and told them it’s at an early enough stage that the design could still change.
Musk has denied the reporting, calling it “utterly false.”
SpaceX, alongside sister company Tesla, does have the manufacturing expertise to pull off mass producing a bunch of AI devices — not to mention access to the chips needed to power any on-device compute. SpaceX has also signaled that it’s keen to expand into wireless, with Starlink Mobile as a potential competitor to Verizon and AT&T. One analyst even went as far as to speculate that T-Mobile or AT&T would make fine acquisition targets for the rocket builder, though such a purchase would, undoubtedly, be pricey.
It’s also not clear if SpaceX is just throwing spaghetti at the wall or if it will attempt to really mass produce and market such a device. But one thing that seems clearer is that if OpenAI is doing it, Musk would, perhaps, want to try to do it better.
As we know, OpenAI is working with Apple’s former chief design officer Jony Ive on an AI device that CEO Sam Altman has claimed will be more peaceful than an iPhone. Reports from last autumn suggest the company has been struggling to get the details right, and OpenAI recently brought on another Apple executive to potentially help move things along. News dropped last week that Paul Meade, Apple’s VP in charge of the Vision Pro headset, has joined OpenAI’s hardware team.
Like OpenAI, SpaceX’s prototype is reportedly designed to run on a proprietary operating system and integrate technology from xAI, Musk’s AI company that SpaceX acquired earlier this year. This would prevent these new devices from being trapped inside another company’s platforms (like Google’s Android). But also, the intent appears to also be to create something new, with native AI interfaces. That said, the graveyard is crowded with the unsuccessful launches of AI devices from companies like Humane and Rabbit. A company wanting to sell an AI device, does not equate consumers wanting to buy such a thing. Yet.
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Rebecca Bellan is a senior reporter at TechCrunch where she covers the business, policy, and emerging trends shaping artificial intelligence. Her work has also appeared in Forbes, Bloomberg, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, and other publications.
You can contact or verify outreach from Rebecca by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at rebeccabellan.491 on Signal.
Key Takeaways SpaceX's stock has seen volatility since the company's IPO nearly three weeks ago, but analysts project significant long-term growth.Analysts highlight the Starship reusable rocket as a pillar of the company's future success, and point to growing AI revenue and the potential for acquisitions as additional reasons for optimism.Risks include high cash burn and reliance on aggressive growth assumptions for future success. Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
Wall Street is starting to size up SpaceX (SPCX), and the stock is getting stellar reviews.
Analysts who have launched coverage of the stock since the company's IPO have said SpaceX stands to become "a major hyperscaler" and "the largest communications, cloud and AI company in the world." That positivity isn't translating into gains today—the stock was down 7% at $159 in recent trading—but Wall Street sees plenty of room for gains.
The average price target from three firms that have initiated coverage of the stock recently stands at $203. While well below the $225 all-time high hit two weeks ago, it's more than 25% above current levels, and 35% higher than the opening price for SpaceX shares when they began trading on June 12.
WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU Elon Musk's space exploration, connectivity and AI company is now a part of major benchmark indexes and the funds that track them, and will be joining some more, which means the stock's performance is likely represented in your retirement account.
The latest bullish view was delivered Tuesday by analysts at Wedbush led by Dan Ives, who initiated coverage of SpaceX with an "outperform" rating and a price target of $190.1 That target is derived from revenue estimates for 2028, which is expected to be the first year that all three of SpaceX's businesses scale.
They view SpaceX's spacecraft and rocket called Starship as "the essential layer" driving the company's success. Its reusability is a strategic advantage from a cost perspective, but also generates a "feedback loop" through which the company can improve its flight rates without driving up capital expenditures, according to Ives and his team. They add that without it, the company's broadband business Starlink would not have reached the scale it has so far, and that SpaceX's ambitions to build orbital data centers would otherwise not be "feasible."
Oppenheimer's Timothy Horan started coverage on the stock on June 11, prior to the company's IPO, with an "Outperform" rating and a $190 price target. A week later, the firm raised the target to $250 following SpaceX's acquisition of AI startup Cursor.2 Horan's models suggest that Cursor revenue will hit $6 billion by the end of this year, raising SpaceX's AI business revenue by 84% to $8.75 billion in the fourth quarter.
Horan expects more acquisitions. SpaceX could, for example, partner with a large language model company such as Anthropic, with the existing lease for the AI shop to use the company's Colossus data center representing the "seed of a deeper relationship." He also thinks the company could buy additional power or data centers on earth, and even acquire its way into becoming a mobile operator given its existing broadband business.
The main risk to SpaceX's otherwise rosy future is that it runs out of money before it reaches its ambitious goals. "Cash burn means the thesis can expire," Ives and his team said in the report. "The bull case requires conviction that the burn converts into a durable franchise before the capital runs ahead of the proof."
Susquehanna Investment Group's Charles Minervino started coverage on June 23 with a "Neutral" rating, and a price target of $170.3 Though the analyst acknowledged the company's dominance in launching rockets, Starlink's "significant runway," its AI offering, and a "proven operator" in Musk, he also said that the company stock—which was then trading around $150—required "premium multiples on very aggressive revenue and EBITDA growth assumptions."
"With some of the markets that SPCX operates in being relatively unproven, we believe a wide range of outcomes exist," Minervino wrote. "This introduces quite a bit of risk into future expectations and therefore would recommend waiting for a better entry point on the stock."
SpaceX stock SPCX fell sharply on Wednesday as investors continued to navigate volatile post-IPO trading.
Shares of Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence company dropped more than 6% to $159.95 in early trading.
The decline came amid broader weakness in technology and semiconductor stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points.
Among other technology names, Micron fell 6%, Sandisk dropped 8%, Nvidia lost roughly 2%, and Broadcom declined about 1%.
The pullback highlights the ongoing debate over SpaceX's valuation following its blockbuster public market debut.
With the stock experiencing significant swings since listing, investors are increasingly looking to analyst assessments for clues about how much upside remains after the company's rapid ascent.
On Tuesday evening, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target.
"We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity, Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel, and increasing deal flow for its Colossus [AI data centers]," Ives wrote.
According to Ives, Starship remains central to the company's long-term growth strategy.
The analyst argued that the next-generation launch vehicle could reduce the cost of reaching space by roughly 90% compared with Falcon 9 missions, potentially enabling a broader range of commercial opportunities, including orbital AI data centers.
"All of SpaceX's future business runs through Starship, whether it's Starlink's next-generation [satellites], the orbital AI-compute constellation, the Artemis lunar lander, or the cost-and-capacity step the whole forward [valuation] case assumes," Ives wrote.
"The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk."
Ives based his valuation on a sum-of-the-parts framework that separately assesses the company's launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence businesses.
Under that approach, he values SpaceX's launch operations at approximately $66 billion and Starlink at roughly $600 billion.
The largest component of the valuation is the company's artificial intelligence business, which Ives estimates is worth approximately $1.8 trillion.
He expects AI-related operations to generate more than $80 billion in revenue by 2028, before any contribution from potential orbital AI data centers.
The analysis places significant emphasis on SpaceX's expanding AI ambitions alongside its traditional aerospace operations.
Separately, SpaceX is set to become one of the fastest companies ever added to the Nasdaq-100 index following recent rule changes adopted by Nasdaq.
Nasdaq announced after last Friday's close that SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index.
Assuming the company continues to meet eligibility requirements, index-tracking funds and related investment products will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
More than $800 billion tracks the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, one of the largest and most actively traded exchange-traded funds.
SpaceX is expected to enter the index with a weighting of less than 1%.
Even with a relatively small weighting, inclusion could create meaningful buying demand because SpaceX's public float remains limited compared with its overall market capitalization.
Index funds and exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need to acquire shares to reflect the benchmark's revised composition, while active managers benchmarked against the index may also adjust positions.
Three weeks after the largest IPO in history, the story investors tell about SpaceX is still mostly about rockets and Starlink.
That’s understandable — but it misses where the company is actually headed. Two of the most consequential developments since the June 12th debut happened nowhere near a launchpad: the transformation of the xAI division from a cash furnace into a genuine revenue engine, and the public launch of X Money, Elon Musk’s long-promised financial “everything app.”
SpaceX stock soared to nearly over $225 per share in its first week of public trading before coming back down near IPO levels. With the company’s first earnings report as a public entity now weeks away, these threads deserve a closer look.
Image Source: StockCharts
Is the xAI Transformation Just Hype?Start with xAI, which was the single biggest drag on SpaceX’s profitability last year. The AI unit posted a roughly $6.4 billion operating loss for 2025, and skeptics rightly flagged it as the riskiest piece of the SpaceX empire. But the picture has shifted quickly.
In May, Anthropic signed a contract worth $1.25 billion per month to purchase all the compute capacity at xAI’s Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, which houses roughly 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Then in June, Google agreed to pay $920 million monthly for cloud compute from Colossus to help power its Gemini models, at a reduced rate through September and the full rate until 2029.
The significance is hard to overstate: between the Anthropic and Google deals, the entire company’s revenue run-rate is set to more than double. A division that was pure burn is suddenly selling its excess compute to two of the most sophisticated buyers in AI — a striking validation of the infrastructure Musk assembled.
That said, xAI remains an enormous consumer of capital. AI accounted for roughly 76% of the group’s total capital expenditures in the first quarter, with xAI still burning billions annually. First-quarter AI capex ran about $7.7 billion, implying something in the $30 billion range for the full year.
The long-term vision ties xAI back to the core space business through “Starmind” — a planned constellation of up to one million AI satellites designed to run inference in orbit. It’s an audacious idea, and whether it becomes real infrastructure or remains a slide in a deck is one of the central questions for patient shareholders. On the product side, Grok 4.5 recently entered private beta, with Musk claiming its performance rivals or exceeds Anthropic’s Claude Opus — a claim worth noting but not yet independently established.
X Money Promises Eye-Popping YieldThe second development is arguably the more intriguing for retail investors, because it was hiding in plain sight. X Money officially launched in late June for U.S. Premium subscribers, with full availability targeted for mid-2026.
This is not a tip jar. The product offers a 6% annual yield on deposits, a personalized metal Visa debit card, peer-to-peer transfers, 3% cashback, and FDIC insurance structured to cover up to $10 million for top-tier subscribers.
The strategic logic rests on distribution: X has more than 560 million monthly active users and 245 million daily users, a built-in audience most fintechs would envy. And the AI layer is the differentiator — analysts note that with xAI funded, X can push beyond being a Cash App rival toward an “agentic banking” interface, positioning it in the emerging world of AI-driven commerce.
But let’s remember, the U.S. market is already saturated with entrenched players like PayPal, Venmo, Cash App, Zelle, and Apple Pay, and every prior attempt at a Western “super app” has hit the same ceiling. American consumers, already deeply banked and served by best-in-class single-purpose apps, have historically resisted the all-in-one model that made WeChat indispensable in China.
Which brings us to the event that will put numbers behind all of this: the first earnings report. SpaceX hasn’t officially confirmed the date, but it’s expected in early August, with several sources pointing to August 6th. This first reported quarter sets the tone for all three segments simultaneously and triggers the initial lock-up early release, so outsized volatility around the date should be expected regardless of results.
In keeping with the company’s ethos, the disclosure itself will be unconventional: SpaceX has said it will release financial results only through its website and its X account, bypassing the traditional newswire services entirely. It’ll be worth watching xAI’s bottom line now that the Anthropic and Google revenue is beginning to flow, alongside Starlink’s subscriber trajectory and any concrete update on Starship’s path to orbital payload delivery.
Bottom LineStepping back, the synthesis is what matters.
SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) is no longer a rocket company that happens to own a satellite network — it is a bet on whether one founder can simultaneously operate a launch monopoly, a Starlink cash machine, a frontier AI lab, and now a consumer bank.
The bull case is that Starlink’s profits fund the moonshots while xAI begins to monetize and X Money adds free upside. The bear case is equally coherent: reputable sources peg the fair value of the current business at roughly $780 billion — less than a third of the market capitalization — and the lock-up calendar promises a steady wave of supply, beginning after this very earnings report.
That first report, and the analyst estimates that follow it, will begin to fill in the blanks. Until then, SpaceX remains one of the most fascinating — and most richly valued — stories in the market.
Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesShort interest about 31% of SpaceX free float — Ortex dataCost to borrow still relatively cheap at 1% from as high as 14% at launchShorts sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 mln since IPO, Ortex saysNo squeeze yet, but if shares rebound short sellers could be hitNEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Short sellers are betting SpaceX's(SPCX.O), opens new tab will resume its post-debut decline with nearly a third of its tradable shares now sold short — even as those wagers have already cost them nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars in paper losses.
The sizeable short position could inject further volatility into the stock, with every $1 SpaceX share price swing translating to roughly $200 million in gains or losses for shorts, Ortex estimates.
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Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a profit when the stock slips, were emboldened after SpaceX shares' initial burst of strength gave way to weakness and the share price slipped as much as 23% in the days following its June 12 market debut.
Short interest now stands at 196 million shares, about 31% of the free float, through Tuesday, up from some 83 million shares, or 13% of the free float, a week ago, Ortex data showed.
"(The rise in short bets) is extraordinary for a stock that has been public less than a month," said Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg.
SpaceX's more than $2 trillion valuation makes it a target for short sellers skeptical of its rich price tag, but strong retail and institutional interest and Musk's history of public battles against short sellers make that a risky proposition. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SpaceX shorts are sitting on mark-to-market losses of about $760 million since the IPO, Ortex estimates.
When the stock bottomed near $153 last week they were up around $2.5 billion on paper, but the rebound in SpaceX shares since has wiped all of that out, Ortex data showed.
"SpaceX has been a roller coaster for the short sellers," Hillerberg said.
The cost to borrow SpaceX shares, a gauge of demand to short a stock relative to the supply of shares available to lend, remains relatively cheap at about 1%, Ortex data showed.
Given the number of shares sold short relative to the total tradable shares available, should SpaceX's stock price continue to rebound, short covering — where bearish investors are forced to buy shares to close out their wagers to avoid further losses — has the potential to push the shares even higher, Hillerberg said.
"(It's) a lot of potential fuel if it tips into a squeeze," he said.
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed Editing by Nick Zieminski Editing by Nick Zieminski
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Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.36%) and its record-setting IPO have arguably been the biggest story in the stock market this summer. And now that Elon Musk’s mammoth company is finally public, analysts are starting to weigh in on the merits of SpaceX.
On Wednesday, Wedbush Securities and analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage on SpaceX stock, assigning an “Outperform” rating and a price target of $190, representing potential upside of 18% from its price at this writing.
Considering that SpaceX has been a roller coaster since opening at $150 on June 12, rising as high as $225 before giving back most of those gains, will Ives’ bullish outlook give investors reason to consider SpaceX stock now?
Wedbush’s rosy outlookIves, the managing director of Wedbush, has been one of the most visible and influential tech analysts on Wall Street, particularly involving key artificial intelligence stocks. Wedbush has even started an exchange-traded fund under his name, the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF, built around his research.
Image source: Getty Images.
Ives writes in his coverage that SpaceX is a future major hyperscaler with "one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market" with its connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure segments. The firm’s $190 price target reflects fiscal year 2028 revenue estimates that imply an enterprise value of approximately $2.48 trillion.
The primary profitability driver, Ives wrote, is the company’s Connectivity division, which includes the Starlink global satellite internet constellation, comprising 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit. Starlink provides mobile and broadband services in 30 countries and six continents, currently serving more than 10.3 million customers.
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Ives wrote that Starlink is "still in the early innings of penetrating the global telecom and broadband market," noting that SpaceX has less than 1% market share. Starlink is also bolstered by SpaceX’s rocket-launching business and the development of its Starship space vehicle. Starship, once fully operational, is expected to carry 60 Starlink satellites per launch, up from 27 on the company’s smaller Falcon 9 rockets. Ives calls it "an incremental driver of its highly profitable broadband connectivity business."
The long play is AIWhile Starlink is SpaceX’s only profitable business right now, AI represents the biggest opportunity for Musk’s company. According to SpaceX’s prospectus, AI represents a massive $26.5 trillion market opportunity. The AI division, which includes the X social media platform and the Grok large language model and chatbot, had $3.1 billion in sales in 2025, but lost $6.35 billion over the year.
However, SpaceX aspires to turn its AI division into a hyperscaler, using a satellite network and solar power to provide computing capacity that could generate billions in annual revenue. SpaceX already has deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI to provide computing capacity in terrestrial data centers. SpaceX is expected to generate $2 billion per month from those contracts.
Ives said that AI and computing capacity are "still in early innings over the next decade," but have the potential for long-side upside for SpaceX stock.
Even with Wedbush’s outlook, SpaceX will be a volatile stockIPO stocks often struggle to hold their gains in the first few months after going public, and SpaceX has been no different so far. Even with Wedbush’s coverage today, SpaceX stock is down about 6% in morning trading.
The stock trades at an extreme valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 115.6, suggesting investors are pricing in expected performance beyond the company’s current financials.
SpaceX has a huge opportunity, particularly in AI, but it will also incur significant expenses that will likely weigh on the stock. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the IPO, projects that the company’s revenue will jump from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion by the end of the decade. But to make that happen, SpaceX plans to spend $350 billion in capital expenditures by 2030.
Whether you are swayed or not by Ives’ coverage and bullish take, investors in SpaceX should expect plenty of ups and downs in the years ahead.
Wedbush has initiated coverage of SpaceX Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an 'outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 16% upside from Tuesday's close of $163.33, arguing the company is becoming a hyperscaler in its own right rather than just a rocket company.
Dan Ives and his team frame SpaceX as three vertically integrated businesses: Starlink connectivity, Starship launch, and an AI segment built around Colossus compute clusters and the Grok model.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting on profitability, with roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5 and average revenue per user of about $66 across its enterprise and consumer base. Wedbush estimates SpaceX still holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving what it calls "early innings" of penetration.
Capital keeps flowing
The analysts point to SpaceX's roughly $86bn IPO haul, about a fifth of which is earmarked for AI infrastructure, as sufficient funding for the near term while the company works through its debt. Wedbush expects further financing to follow given the scale of the AI ambitions.
Starship as the swing factor
Reusability remains the strategic edge, according to the note, cutting hardware costs while building a flywheel that improves flight rates without a corresponding jump in capital spending. The new Starship models are expected to carry around 60 Starlink satellites per launch, more than double the 27 carried by Falcon 9, which the analysts argue makes the rocket essential not just to the launch business but to the broadband and orbital compute ambitions layered on top of it.
Where the valuation comes from
Wedbush's $190 target is built on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using FY28 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value.
Connectivity is valued at 17 times revenue given its high-margin, recurring subscriber base; AI and compute carry the richest multiple at 22 times, reflecting a contracted compute book with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI worth an annualised run rate of roughly $28bn; and Space carries the lowest multiple at 9 times given its capital intensity and lumpier earnings profile.
The analysts are explicit that this excludes several potential upside drivers, including sub-$200 per kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres, and enterprise AI monetisation, all of which they see as optionality rather than base-case value given the execution hurdles still ahead, including Starship's need to demonstrate orbital delivery, upper-stage catch and in-orbit propellant transfer.
Wedbush's bull case puts the target at $235, its bear case at $135.
That’s how much of the global telecom and broadband market Starlink has penetrated, according to Ives, despite growing to roughly 12 million subscribers with an average revenue per user of about $66 across its consumer and enterprise offerings.
For Ives, that isn’t a sign of maturity—it’s evidence that SpaceX’s largest business is still in its earliest stages.
The Starlink OpportunityInitiating coverage on SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, Ives argued that Starlink remains the company’s primary profitability engine thanks to its recurring subscription revenue.
More importantly, he believes the satellite internet business has barely scratched the surface of its addressable market.
With less than 1% penetration of the global telecom and broadband opportunity, Ives sees significant room for subscriber growth even before accounting for newer initiatives such as direct-to-device cellular connectivity.
That recurring revenue base also differentiates SpaceX from traditional aerospace companies, providing investors with a business that resembles a telecommunications platform as much as a launch provider.
More Than RocketsWhile SpaceX is widely associated with reusable rockets and ambitious Mars missions, Wedbush’s investment thesis places Starlink at the center of the story.
The firm’s note argues that the launch business and Starship’s expanding payload capacity ultimately serve a larger purpose: enabling Starlink to deploy satellites more efficiently, expand network capacity and reinforce what has become the company’s most profitable segment.
In other words, the rockets increasingly support the broadband business—not the other way around.
That dynamic is one reason Ives believes SpaceX should be viewed as more than a space company, describing it as a future hyperscaler with businesses spanning connectivity, launch services and AI infrastructure.
The Bigger PictureFor investors, the less-than-1% figure helps explain why SpaceX continues to attract bullish long-term forecasts despite already commanding a market capitalization above $2 trillion.
Rather than focusing on the subscribers Starlink has already added, Ives is focused on the customers it has yet to reach.
If satellite broadband continues expanding into underserved markets while direct-to-device services gain traction, today’s 12 million subscribers could represent only a fraction of Starlink’s long-term opportunity.
That makes the smallest number in Wedbush’s initiation note arguably its most important one. For Ives, SpaceX’s bull case isn’t built on what Starlink has already achieved—it’s built on how much of the market still remains untapped.
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Elon Musk Loses Trillionaire Status As SpaceX Slide Cuts Net Worth By $50 Billion Ty Roush is a breaking news reporter based in New York City.
Jul 01, 2026, 12:33pm EDT
ToplineElon Musk on Wednesday lost his trillionaire status as sliding SpaceX shares lowered his fortune by more than $50 billion, the latest stock decline for the rocket maker despite newfound optimism from one of the best-known analysts of Musk’s Tesla.
A well-known analyst of Musk’s Tesla offered a bullish take for the rocket maker.
2024 Invision
Key FactsShares of SpaceX dropped 7.1% as of Wednesday afternoon, a reversal from the nearly 12% jump over the three previous trading sessions.
Another decrease in SpaceX’s share price cut Musk’s net worth by $57.8 billion to $995.2 billion, as Musk holds 4.8 billion SpaceX shares and another 350 million stock options with an exercise price of $8.40 per share.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.21%) made its public debut this month, and demand was so intense that the stock quickly shot up to $225 per share from its original $135 initial public offering (IPO) price. The hype has since died down, and SpaceX is currently trading near $150 as of this writing. So how do investors decide whether to buy, hold, or sell in light of this pullback?
First, we must consider the price dip itself and whether it is truly an opportunity, a warning, or just short-term noise to ignore. There really isn't much analyst consensus on SpaceX. Price targets range from an absurdly high $310 to $62 per share, so different conclusions can be reached from the outset.
Only time will tell who has the correct take on Elon Musk's multi-trillion-dollar business. However, this dip is likely driven by a combination of fears and concerns about SpaceX's debt load, inflated valuation, and ability to grow revenue to justify that sky-high valuation.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX announced it would issue $25 billion in bonds this week, following its record-breaking $85 billion IPO raise. The additional debt has some investors concerned. Lastly, insider lockups will expire in the coming months, which could trigger a selling spree that pushes the stock lower. With all that said, this dip is generally reactionary and not necessarily tied to SpaceX's financials. The company hasn't even released its first quarterly earnings report.
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Should you buy? While SpaceX's price is still inflated, there's a bull case to consider: the businesses it owns and their growth trajectory. The subsidiary Starlink, a satellite Internet network, is globally scalable and already generates recurring revenue. SpaceX also owns xAI, which lags competitors, but could catch up over time and eventually become profitable. SpaceX, of course, currently dominates the medium-lift reusable rocket market.
There's a lot of potential revenue in a diversified portfolio. Success stories like Amazon, which is both an e-commerce platform and a leading cloud provider, show what is possible with successful execution and a long enough time horizon.
Should you hold? If you already hold SpaceX shares, the stock will be volatile for the foreseeable future, and trying to time the market isn't a winning strategy in the long run. It's going to take years for revenue to catch up with valuation. Right now, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its sales. Holding the stock will require the stomach to handle price swings.
The stock has been trading for less than a month, so holding is a reasonable option because investors haven't given the company nearly enough time to find its footing.
Should you sell? If you bought SpaceX and the stock has become too concentrated in your portfolio, or you find yourself unable to handle the volatile price swings, you may want to consider reducing your position. Or perhaps you've become bearish on the space industry and on SpaceX's ability to become a profitable, cash-flowing machine. In that case, selling makes sense.
There isn't one right answer when it comes to buying, holding, or selling any stock. In general, it's best to buy and hold for a minimum of five years to give stocks a chance to grow and weather any market downturns. In the case of SpaceX, investors need patience, a high risk tolerance, and the ability to wait for revenue to catch up with the more than $2 trillion valuation.
That may not happen for several years. Your personal portfolio goals are what matter most.
The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.50%) initial public offering (IPO) is behind us. After its market capitalization soared from $1.77 trillion to $2.5 trillion, the company's valuation has finally settled somewhere around $2 trillion. Looking to buy the dip? There is one reason you may want to wait.
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Aug. 6 could change everything for SpaceX While the exact date is still to be determined, SpaceX is currently expected to report its first earnings as a public company around Aug. 6. The details revealed during this announcement should have a meaningful impact on the stock price. But there's another catalyst arriving that day that could have an equally big impact.
When SpaceX went public, less than 5% of its total outstanding shares were made available for sale. This limited float made the stock relatively volatile, given that supply and-demand dynamics could quickly go out of balance.
Image source: Getty Images.
When SpaceX reports quarterly earnings, however, it will unlock between 20% and 30% of its outstanding shares. In a nutshell, this means that 20% to 30% of the company's outstanding shares -- mostly held by employees, management, and early investors -- will be eligible to sell on public markets. For reference, less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares were eligible for sale during the IPO. The rest were considered "locked", with certain "unlocking" period in the weeks and months following the IPO.
The impact of unlocking schedules can be difficult to predict. But one thing is clear: SpaceX's publicly traded share count will skyrocket in August, with many longtime investors now eligible to sell and book a potentially hefty profit. If you're nervous about the company's current $2 trillion valuation, you may want to wait to see whether this lockup event will provide a better entry point.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +4.15%), or SpaceX, roared out of the gate following its initial public offering on June 12, reaching an intraday high of roughly $225.64 per share on June 16. As of this writing, the company's share price is down roughly 27% from that high point.
SpaceX has leading positions in rocket-launching technologies and satellite internet and mobile services, and it appears to be in the early stages of building a top artificial intelligence (AI) services business. Should investors buy the stock following its substantial valuation pullback?
Image source: Getty Images.
Does SpaceX stock offer compelling value right now? SpaceX still has a market capitalization of roughly $2.16 trillion. At that valuation, the company trades at approximately 115 times last year's $18.7 billion in revenue. SpaceX posted annual sales growth of 33% in 2025, and there's a good chance the business is actually poised for meaningful acceleration when it comes to revenue growth this year, thanks to new AI processing contracts, expansion for the adoption of Starlink services and product portfolios, and continued growth for its rocket-launching services.
But there's a good chance that SpaceX's net loss will also expand significantly from last year. The business posted a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year, with its AI business accounting for the vast majority of those losses. Notably, the AI unit is the focal point of the company's growth ambitions -- and massive infrastructure spending this year should lead to a large increase in the business's net loss.
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Even though SpaceX has seen a big valuation pullback following its post-IPO high, the company still trades at an enormously growth-dependent valuation. The likelihood that the company's net loss will jump significantly this year presents a big risk factor, and that isn't the only potential valuation headwind on the horizon. If investors become less willing to assign big valuation premiums to AI processing and space tech stocks, SpaceX stock could continue to tumble.
With that in mind, I think that investors who want to own a piece of the company will be best served by waiting for a better entry point.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Even after cooling off from its post-IPO rally, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +4.15%), better known as SpaceX, has a market cap of $2.25 trillion and is one of the most valuable companies in the world. Based on its revenue of about $19.3 billion over the past four quarters, SpaceX has a price-to-sales ratio of about 116.
Let's be clear. That's an incredibly high multiple. Some of the most rapidly growing AI infrastructure stocks trade for P/S multiples in the 40-50 range. The average S&P 500 company trades for about 3x sales. But there's more to the story. The price-to-sales ratio of 116 is a backward-looking metric. The more important thing to consider is whether SpaceX's revenue in 2027, 2028, and beyond will justify it.
Image source: Getty Images.
What will SpaceX's revenue be? SpaceX's revenue is a unique situation because its trailing 12-month revenue and what investors should expect going forward are two different things.
The biggest reason is SpaceX's recent AI compute deals. Between three separate deals with Anthropic, Alphabet's (GOOGL +1.09%)(GOOG +0.67%) Google, and Reflection AI, SpaceX will be receiving about $2.32 billion per month in AI compute revenue once all three deals are in effect (starting in October). That's $27.8 billion in annual revenue from these three deals alone.
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Beyond the AI compute deals, it's important to point out that SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service grew revenue by 50% year-over-year in 2025 and has barely scratched the surface of its addressable market opportunity. Plus, once SpaceX's much larger Starship rocket begins commercial flights, it could be a big revenue growth driver.
SpaceX's revenue will almost certainly grow substantially in the second half of 2026 and beyond. Looking ahead to 2027, there's a solid base case to be made that SpaceX will get about $22-24 billion in revenue from Starlink, $30 billion from xAI (including the AI compute deals, the X social media platform, and Grok, and about $6 billion from the rocket launch business, for a total of about $59 billion. This would give SpaceX a much lower P/S multiple of 38 based on its current valuation, and revenue could potentially be even higher if the company gets additional AI compute deals.
The biggest caveat is that even a P/S of 38 is expensive, and we have no idea whether SpaceX will be profitable in 2027. There will likely still be a lot of future revenue and earnings growth priced into the stock. The bottom line is that (assuming its AI compute deals produce the three years of revenue that is expected) SpaceX's stock is effectively much less expensive than its 116x P/S multiple implies. But it's still an expensive business. Approach it with that in mind.
Matt Frankel, CFP® has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The thesis is straightforward: SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) gets added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, and every index fund, ETF and benchmark-tracking pension on the planet has to buy it whether they like the valuation or not. That is mechanical demand against a float that has been public for 11 trading days, and it is the cleanest forced-flow catalyst the market has seen in years.
The Catalyst Is Already Priced In, but Not Enough Nasdaq announced the inclusion after Friday’s close, calling it one of the quickest ever additions to the high-profile index following last month’s rule change. Prediction markets have caught on. Polymarket is currently pricing a 92% probability that SPCX closes the week of June 29 above $145, with the single most-favored outcome being a close above $175 at 31% implied probability. The stock is already up 6% over the past week heading into the trigger date. Funds front-running the rebalance are buying now, not on July 7.
The Revenue Story Has Quietly Doubled The bear case rests on a stale revenue number. SpaceX did $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, up 33% year over year, with a GAAP loss. That was the pre-xAI company. Post-merger, the AI segment has signed contracts totaling $27.8 billion in annual revenue with Anthropic, Alphabet and Reflection AI.
The Anthropic deal alone pays $1.25 billion per month for roughly 300 megawatts of Colossus compute. The Google deal adds $920 million per month for about 110,000 GPUs through 2029. Stack that on Q1 2026 sales of $4.7 billion, and the company is tracking to $38.6 billion in revenue this year. That is a hyperscaler growth profile that did not exist six weeks ago.
Wall Street Targets Confirm The Upside Current price sits around $170. The consensus analyst target is $187.80, implying 11% upside before the index buying even begins. Sentiment has moved with the setup, with the composite score climbing +14.95 over the past seven days.
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Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski put it bluntly, arguing “investors are underestimating SpaceX by viewing it solely as an aerospace company” and pointing to Starlink and AI connectivity as the underappreciated legs of the story.
The Valuation Risk, Dismissed The pushback writes itself: The stock trades at 112 times trailing sales, which is the wrong number to anchor on. On forward revenue of $38.6 billion, the multiple compresses to roughly 54 times sales, and that figure shrinks every quarter the hyperscaler deals scale. Palantir trades at 37 times forward sales with materially slower growth. SpaceX is growing the top line at a rate that closes that gap inside of two reporting cycles.
The catalyst is dated, the buyers are forced, and the revenue trajectory has already re-rated. Investors positioning ahead of July 7 are making a straightforward call.
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