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Friday's rally made Sandisk the S&P 500's top performer before its September 21 index promotion. Summary

Summary: Index demand meets a NAND business already growing revenue at triple-digit rates.

Sandisk Corporation SNDK, the flash-memory powerhouse, earned promotion to the S&P 100 before trading opens September 21. The announcement followed an explosive Friday session that sent the stock 11.9% higher to $1,740, making it the S&P 500's biggest gainer and pushing its market value to roughly $273 billion. U.S. markets were closed Monday.

The operating numbers are just as dramatic. Sandisk's latest quarterly results showed revenue rocketing 372% to $8.97 billion, gross margin expanding to 84.6% and data-center revenue more than doubling sequentially to $2.98 billion. Management also lifted the remaining share-repurchase authorization to $15.5 billion and projected as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for the coming quarter.

That repurchase capacity represents approximately 5.7% of Sandisk's market capitalization, while S&P 100 admission could unlock another wave of index-fund demand. Yet the GuruFocus chart flashes a clear warning beneath the spectacular growth: Sandisk's GF Score is only 51 out of 100, with strong growth and financial strength offset by weak GF Value and momentum readings. Sandisk has squeezed exceptional profits from the memory boom, but sustaining a $1,740 valuation will require its long-term customer agreements to hold firm when NAND supply eventually catches up.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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MU (Micron)

Buy MU. DRAM and NAND pricing is firm (DRAM +57% QoQ, NAND +70% QoQ) and Micron is gaining share (DRAM 24%, NAND 15%). The market is treating memory like AI infrastructure: easing Treasury yields remove the multiple-compression pressure, while the real driver is AI-driven memory bottlenecks. HBM demand also survives the “less memory per chip” scare because Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra could ship more accelerators, keeping total HBM consumption rising; UBS lifted HBM ASP growth to ~79% YoY.

Key Risk: AI accelerators ultimately use far less HBM per system than expected, collapsing total memory consumption even if chip counts rise.

SNDK (SanDisk)

Buy SNDK. NAND pricing strength is the direct catalyst, and Bernstein’s thesis is supported by new long-term supply agreements with stronger pricing protections and upfront commitments—reducing earnings downside when the NAND cycle turns. With server/storage SSD demand improving and constrained supply keeping pricing power elevated, the stock has a clear path to higher fiscal 2027 earnings estimates.

Key Risk: New NAND capacity ramps faster than demand, breaking pricing power despite the contract protections.

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares were back in favour again ahead of Friday’s opening bell, with the memory stocks rising 2% and 3%.

Micron gained 1.9% in premarket trading and SanDisk advanced 3% as Treasury yields eased ahead of the August jobs report.

Part of the rebound is macro relief. But the stronger argument sits underneath the move: DRAM and NAND pricing remains firm, AI infrastructure is consuming enormous amounts of memory, and analysts continue raising estimates.

Lower bond yields matter because Micron and SanDisk increasingly trade like high-growth AI stocks. When yields rise, investors become less willing to pay premium multiples for future earnings.

Friday’s easing therefore removed pressure that hit semiconductors earlier in the week.

Yet the memory cycle remained strong. Barron’s reported that global DRAM revenue jumped 57% quarter on quarter in Q2, while NAND revenue surged 70%. Micron increased its DRAM market share to 24% and its NAND share to 15%.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh has argued that memory remains a “key bottleneck” across the semiconductor supply chain, according to The Fly.

The firm maintained an Outperform rating on Micron pointing to elevated aggregate DRAM demand.

One concern has been whether future AI accelerators could require less high-bandwidth memory per chip.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri argues that conclusion may be too simplistic.

MarketWatch reported that Arcuri believes Nvidia’s changes to future Rubin Ultra configurations could allow it to ship more accelerators. If each chip carries less memory but far more chips are produced, total HBM consumption can still rise.

UBS raised its forecast for HBM average selling-price growth to about 79% year on year from 67%, while pointing to stronger NAND conditions as server and storage SSD demand improves.

That matters for Micron. Its AI opportunity increasingly depends on memory consumed across entire data-centre systems, not solely the HBM capacity attached to each GPU.

Nvidia’s procurement supports that view, as the company disclosed $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments, primarily tied to memory and manufacturing, showing how important component availability remains.

SanDisk continues to receive strong support from Wall Street.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman has maintained an Outperform rating and a $3,000 price target on the stock, after raising the target from $1,700 in late June.

Newman’s bullish case centres on SanDisk’s new long-term memory supply agreements, which feature stronger pricing protections and upfront customer commitments that Bernstein believes could reduce earnings downside when the NAND cycle eventually weakens.

Bernstein also raised its fiscal 2027 earnings estimates on stronger NAND average selling prices.

That gives SanDisk a direct fundamental catalyst. AI data centres require expanding amounts of storage, while constrained supply continues to give NAND producers stronger pricing power.

The risk is that those conditions eventually attract enough new capacity to loosen the market.

China is already gaining ground as YMTC’s global NAND share reached 14% in the second quarter from 9% a year earlier, while SanDisk’s slipped to 11% from 13%. CXMT also increased its DRAM share.

Sandisk (SNDK +1.08%) built its name on memory cards and flash drives. But in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, which ended July 3, the company sold $2.98 billion of storage to datacenter customers -- about a third of its $8.97 billion in total revenue. A year earlier, that datacenter business generated just $213 million in quarterly sales.

The scale of the change goes beyond one quarter. Sandisk separated from Western Digital in February 2025, and in fiscal 2026, its first full year on its own, it generated $20.25 billion of revenue, up 175%, with the datacenter piece up 437%.

But the bigger change isn't who is buying the company's storage. It's how they're buying it.

Image source: Getty Images.

A steep mix shiftShowing just how fast the customer base is moving, datacenter revenue has climbed for three straight quarters. It was $440 million in the fiscal second quarter, about 15% of the company's revenue. By the fiscal third quarter, it had grown to $1.47 billion, about 25%. And it hit $2.98 billion in the fourth, about a third of the total.

That said, the edge business, which sells flash storage to makers of PCs, smartphones, gaming consoles, and cars, is still the biggest piece of the company, at $5.43 billion of fiscal fourth-quarter revenue.

Consumer products, however, contributed just $556 million, about 6% of the quarter and down 5% year over year. In other words, the retail cards and drives Sandisk is named for are now its smallest business.

What do the contracts guarantee?Memory pricing is famously boom-and-bust, and Sandisk's answer is what it calls the New Business Model (NBM) -- multiyear supply agreements signed directly with large datacenter and edge customers.

The terms are what make the shift structural. Chief financial officer Luis Visoso said on the company's August earnings call that Sandisk now has 10 of these agreements across eight customers, five of them signed since April. The agreements run as long as five years, with a weighted average duration of more than four years. Pricing includes fixed and variable elements, with the variable portion subject to floors and ceilings. In total, the NBMs Sandisk has signed represent a minimum of $93.9 billion in expected revenue, assuming every variable price settles at its floor. The deals are also backed by $16.5 billion of customer cash deposits and financial instruments.

The contracted share is still growing, too. Management expects NBMs to cover about half of Sandisk's bit shipments in fiscal 2027, and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028.

Of course, contracted volume isn't the same thing as guaranteed revenue, and the ceilings may cap Sandisk's upside if spot prices keep climbing. But I'd argue the floors matter more than the $93.9 billion headline number. Minimum prices under a growing share of shipments change the downside math in an industry known for brutal crashes.

Higher prices did most of the workFor all that structure, fiscal 2026 was mostly a pricing story. Sandisk's total products sold rose by a mid-teens percentage on an exabyte basis (a measure of raw storage volume shipped), while revenue rose 175%. And management said about two-thirds of the fiscal fourth quarter's sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing, with one-third from higher volumes.

That pricing boom shows up most clearly in profitability. Gross margin reached 84.6%, up from 26.2% in the year-ago period.

The company also swung to $6.9 billion of quarterly net income from a small loss a year earlier. And free cash flow for the full year went from a $120 million outflow in fiscal 2025 to $11.5 billion.

Management doesn't expect a cooldown yet, either. It guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, up 15% to 20% sequentially, with gross margin expected to stay at 83% to 85%.

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The market remains skeptical, though. Shares trade around $1,537 as of this writing, down about 35% from a 52-week high, at about 21 times fiscal 2026 earnings.

Measured against expected earnings for fiscal 2027, the price-to-earnings multiple falls to about 7. A steep decline in memory pricing, in other words, is arguably already priced in.

Is Sandisk a different company now? On the customer side, I think it clearly is. A third of revenue comes from data centers, about half of this fiscal year's shipments are already committed under contract, and there are price floors where prices used to float freely.

However, the new model hasn't been tested by a downturn yet. And even Sandisk's own long-term financial model, laid out at its August investor day, calls for non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margins of about 80% for fiscal 2028 through 2030 -- below the 84.6% it just reported. The floors cushion a fall in contracted pricing. They don't make fiscal 2026's boom prices permanent.

Flash memory specialist Sandisk (SNDK +0.00%) and its long-term manufacturing partner Kioxia said Thursday that they plan to invest more than $31 billion in Japan through 2032. The money is earmarked for infrastructure at the Yokkaichi and Kitakami plants (the factories where the two companies produce their NAND flash memory), along with related technology development.

The plan is contingent on Japanese government support.

Over the alliance's more than 25 years, the two companies have invested more than $50 billion in Japan, according to the announcement. The new plan would spend about 60% of that sum again in about six years.

Both figures are floors ("more than"), so the proportion is approximate. The plan's scale is not. And the announcement looks odd next to what Sandisk management itself told investors three weeks earlier: that the company is increasing supply through technology improvements rather than large capacity expansions, with capital expenditures falling as a percentage of revenue.

So which one is it?

Image source: Getty Images.

Who pays whatThe plan is joint, not a $31 billion check from Sandisk alone. The two companies manufacture through a joint venture structure called Flash Ventures, which operates at eight facilities in Japan (six in Yokkaichi and two in Kitakami). In January, they extended that framework through December 2034.

Sandisk holds a 49.9% stake in the Flash Ventures entities, and Kioxia owns the facilities themselves. Each side gets roughly half of the production. And Sandisk's annual report says the company is obligated to finance between 49.9% and 50% of the capital expenditures that the joint ventures decide to make, to the extent that the joint ventures' own cash flow cannot cover them.

Neither company has detailed its share, and Sandisk's obligation covers only the joint ventures' own investments. But if about half of the plan flows through Flash Ventures, something close to $1.3 billion a year falls on Sandisk, before what the Japanese government contributes.

Doesn't that break the capital-light story?"We grow supply primarily through nodal transitions rather than wafer additions, delivering mid- to high teens bit growth," CEO David Goeckeler said on the company's earnings call on Aug. 5. And chief financial officer Luis Visoso supplied the figure, guiding capital expenditures to about 6% of revenue for fiscal 2027 even as the company accelerates its newest manufacturing technologies.

At first glance, a $31 billion build program appears to contradict all that. But if you follow how the money flows, I would say the capital-light story holds up for the most part.

For one thing, Sandisk's funding obligation is a backstop, not a blank check. The company covers its share of the joint ventures' investments only when Flash Ventures' own operating cash flow cannot.

That said, the 6% guidance and the $31 billion plan are the same money. What Visoso guided is gross capital expenditures, which already includes Sandisk's share of what Flash Ventures builds. The company's own property purchases totaled just $177 million in fiscal 2026, far short of 6% of revenue, and it also put a net $275 million into the joint ventures. So the plan's bill has to fit within that guidance, not sit beside it.

And then there is Sandisk's explosive revenue base. The company's revenue in fiscal 2026 rose 175% year over year to $20.25 billion, and guidance for the fiscal first quarter of 2027 alone projects revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. Against a business of that size, that bill fits within Sandisk's 6% guidance.

Demand still has to lastOf course, the hardest issue for shareholders is durability. The plan runs through 2032, and memory has long been a wildly cyclical business.

However, Sandisk has more visibility on that than in past cycles. Long-term agreements with eight customers already cover about half of the company's expected bit shipments for fiscal 2027, and Sandisk values those agreements at $93.9 billion over their lives, based on the minimum prices they guarantee. The demand secured in writing may be what makes a six-year build plan defensible.

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Sure, the uncontracted half of the business still floats on market prices, and no contract protects years beyond its term. But this announcement amounts to two of the industry's biggest players betting that the storage boom for artificial intelligence (AI) will last longer than this quarter's debates about it.

Still, the growth stock closed Thursday near $1,485, 37% below its June peak.

At that price, the shares cost about 7 times forward earnings for the next fiscal year. In other words, the market still doubts how long the boom's earnings can last. The $31 billion headline sounds like a strategy shift. The structure beneath it -- jointly funded, contingent on government support, and sized to a revenue base that nearly tripled last year -- looks more like the plan management described, operating at the scale the boom now demands.

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Continued investments through 2032 will further strengthen the companies’ long-standing joint venture and drive meaningful, multi-year flash memory-supply

Investments align with economic policy goals of Japanese government and reflect strong U.S. – Japan relations

TOKYO & MILPITAS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kioxia Corporation, a subsidiary of Kioxia Holdings Corporation (TOKYO: 285A) and Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) today announced anticipated significant investments in Japan, totaling over $31 billion (approximately 5 trillion yen) contingent upon government support. The investments through 2032 will continue to strengthen the Kioxia and Sandisk partnership, one of the most successful joint ventures across any industry. The partnership has helped drive decades of NAND flash memory innovation and invested over $50 billion (approximately 9 trillion yen) in Japan over the past 25 years. Kioxia and Sandisk will continue to deliver leading technology to support the growing demands of an AI and a data-driven world.

Aligned with market trends, these investments will support the ongoing buildout of infrastructure at the Yokkaichi Plant and the Kitakami Plant, along with related infrastructure, technology. Kioxia and Sandisk each has committed to drive meaningful, multi-year bit growth and ensuring stable supply to address the strong demand for their innovative flash memory technology. In line with these commitments, the announced investments are intended to fuel the joint venture’s long-term success and ability to deliver leading-edge flash memory innovations at scale and with stability.

“This joint investment further strengthens our longstanding partnership with Sandisk and underscores Kioxia’s strong commitment to contributing to the advancement of an AI-driven society,” said Hiroo Ota, President and CEO of Kioxia. “Kioxia will continue to meet growing demand for high-capacity, high-performance, and power-efficient flash memory, which is essential to the growth of an AI-driven society. We sincerely appreciate the support of the Japanese government to date and recognize the importance of its continued strategic support in maintaining further strengthening our global competitiveness.”

“For decades, Sandisk and Kioxia have jointly developed world-class NAND flash memory technology,” said David Goeckeler, Chairman and CEO of Sandisk Corporation. “In line with our business strategy and financial guidance, these planned investments will ensure our ability to support our customer’s increasing demands for our technology, while providing new economic opportunities for the communities we operate in and serving as a premier example of U.S.-Japan economic collaboration.”

These investments are aligned with economic policy goals of Takaichi administration, supporting a strategically important sector with the expansion of advanced manufacturing for cutting-edge semiconductor technologies.

In January, Kioxia and Sandisk announced the extension of their joint venture framework at Kioxia’s Yokkaichi Plant through December 2034. Through the joint venture, which has spanned more than 25 years, Kioxia and Sandisk collaborate in the development and manufacturing of flash-based memory wafers. This announcement reflects the strength of the longstanding partnership and its ability to leverage AI-enabled smart manufacturing at scale to ensure stable production of advanced 3D flash memory.

About Sandisk

Built on more than three decades of innovation, Sandisk is a vertically integrated global semiconductor company dedicated to delivering memory technologies that help people and businesses unlock the potential of their data. From the enterprise SSDs powering AI infrastructure to consumer devices and connected systems at the edge, Sandisk designs and manufactures memory solutions that fuel the modern digital economy. To learn more, visit www.sandisk.com.

About Kioxia

Kioxia is a world leader in memory solutions, dedicated to the development, production and sale of flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs). In April 2017, its predecessor Toshiba Memory was spun off from Toshiba Corporation, the company that invented NAND flash memory in 1987. Kioxia is committed to uplifting the world with “memory” by offering products, services and systems that create choice for customers and memory-based value for society. Kioxia's innovative 3D flash memory technology, BiCS FLASH™, is shaping the future of storage in high-density applications, including advanced smartphones, PCs, automotive systems, data centers and generative AI systems.

SANDISK and the SANDISK logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of Sandisk Corporation or its affiliates in the US and/or other countries. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2026 Sandisk Corporation or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws, including, without limitation, statements regarding expectations for: Sandisk Corporation’s (the “Company’s”) and Kioxia Holdings Corporation’s planned investments in Japan, including the timing, amount, scope, intended use, and anticipated benefits of those investments; the ongoing buildout of infrastructure at the Yokkaichi Plant and the Kitakami Plant; the impact of artificial intelligence and data-driven applications on demand for high-performance flash memory technologies and the companies’ ability to support such demand; the companies’ long-standing joint venture, including its durability, long-term success, and ability to deliver leading-edge flash memory innovations at scale and with stability; the role of the companies’ investments in supporting economic growth, regional economic development, the long-term growth objectives of the joint venture, multi-year bit-supply growth, and advanced manufacturing scale, and the impact of these investments on the U.S.-Japan relations. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Key risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements include: adverse changes in global or regional economic conditions, including the impact of evolving trade policies, tariff regimes, and trade wars, and the effects of global health crises; volatility in demand for the Company’s products; pricing trends and fluctuations in average selling prices; inflation; changes in interest rates and a potential economic recession; the impact of business and market conditions; the impact of competitive products and pricing; development and introduction of products based on new technologies and management of technology transitions; risks associated with strategic initiatives, including restructurings, acquisitions, divestitures, cost saving measures and joint ventures; risks related to product defects; difficulties or delays in product ramps, manufacturing or other supply chain disruptions; reliance on strategic relationships with key partners, including Kioxia Corporation; risks related to the Company’s long-term agreements, or "NBMs"; fluctuation of operating results, including due to changes in demand, industry cycle and timing of customer deployments, and the Company’s ability to accurately forecast demand; the attraction, retention and development of skilled management and technical talent; risks associated with the use of artificial intelligence in the Company’s business operations; risks related to financial guarantees and other financial obligations; risks related to the Company’s share repurchase program; changes to the Company’s relationships with key customers or consolidation among the Company’s customer base; compromise, damage or interruption from cybersecurity incidents or other data system security risks; reliance on intellectual property; fluctuations in currency exchange rates; actions by competitors; risks associated with compliance with changing legal and regulatory requirements; and other risks and uncertainties listed in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on August 17, 2026, to which your attention is directed. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect new information or events, except as required by law.

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NAND flash contract prices were projected to climb 70% to 75% in the spring quarter, according to research firm TrendForce. For the current quarter, the same firm projects increases of 10% to 15%.

For most of the market, that shift is a footnote. For Sandisk (SNDK -0.28%), the closest thing to a pure NAND flash bet among large U.S. stocks, it is close to the entire investment case.

The memory specialist's earnings exploded because flash pricing went off the charts. Prices are still projected to rise -- just far more slowly. And that distinction, between a boom ending and a boom decelerating, is what I think the growth stock's earnings estimates now ride on.

Image source: Getty Images.

Two-thirds pricingSandisk's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 (the period ended July 3) showed what the steep part of the price curve does for this business. Revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% from the prior quarter and up 372% year over year. Gross margin hit 84.6%, expanding from 26.2% in the year-ago quarter.

The full year tells the same story at scale. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 175% year over year to $20.25 billion, with datacenter revenue up 437%. A business that reported a GAAP loss in fiscal 2025 earned $70.88 per share, on a non-GAAP (adjusted) basis, in fiscal 2026.

Management was specific about the source. About two-thirds of the quarter's sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing, with the other third from volumes.

The mix underneath echoed the industry data. Datacenter revenue more than doubled from the prior quarter to about $3 billion, as artificial intelligence (AI) buyers kept paying up.

However, consumer revenue went the other way, falling 32% sequentially to $556 million. Buyers who can walk away from record flash prices are starting to.

From 70% to 15%That consumer retreat is exactly why TrendForce expects the curve to flatten. In its July survey, the firm said record-high contract prices have consumer buyers in markets like PCs and smartphones reaching the limit of what they will pay, even as AI demand keeps overall supply tight.

Its projection of 10% to 15% NAND contract price growth this quarter compares with the 70% to 75% it projected for the quarter Sandisk just reported. The slowdown, notably, comes from demand hitting a ceiling rather than from new supply -- capacity relief isn't expected until the second half of 2027.

To be clear, that is a forecast of continued increases. But the rate of change arguably matters more than the direction here, because Sandisk's sequential growth was two-thirds pricing.

Run the math on the company's own guidance and the deceleration is already visible. Sandisk guided for fiscal first-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. At the midpoint, that is 18% sequential growth, down from 51% last quarter.

Can the margins hold?Guidance says yes, for now. Sandisk expects adjusted gross margin of 83% to 85% this quarter, essentially flat with the fourth quarter, and adjusted earnings per share of $44 to $46, up from $39.25.

The harder test comes after that. Shares trade near $1,600 as of this writing, about 32% below the high of $2,354.39 they set in June. That price works out to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 7.5. A multiple that low only looks cheap if the earnings projections behind it hold up -- and those projections require the extraordinary margins to persist deep into fiscal 2027 while contract-price growth shrinks toward 10%.

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Sandisk has an answer it didn't have in past memory cycles. The company has signed long-term supply agreements with eight customers covering about half the bits it expects to ship in fiscal 2027, and those contracts are worth $93.9 billion at floor pricing (the minimum prices the contracts guarantee) over their life. Agreements like that could blunt the downside if market pricing eventually rolls over.

But the uncontracted half still floats on the market price, and how fast that price keeps climbing is exactly the forecast that just moved. A quarter ago, the industry's reference projection had NAND prices rising 70%. Now it has them rising 10% to 15%.

That doesn't end the boom, and the contracts make this cycle sturdier than the ones that wrecked memory stocks before. Still, Sandisk's earnings estimates were built on the steep part of the price curve, and I think they will need rebuilding as it flattens -- even if nothing else goes wrong.

Sandisk (SNDK -0.10%) has been a major beneficiary of the favorable environment for NAND memory. Just look at the numbers.

The company's revenue rose 51% sequentially to nearly $9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (which ended July 3), while non-GAAP gross margin increased by 6.2 percentage points sequentially to 84.6%. Approximately two-thirds of that sequential revenue growth came from higher NAND memory prices, while only one-third came from selling more NAND.

Against this backdrop, what could Sandisk stock look like five years from now?

Image source: Getty Images

This NAND cycle could be different Artificial intelligence (AI) is already becoming a bigger part of Sandisk's business. The company's data center revenue rose 103% sequentially to $3 billion in the fourth quarter. Datacenter products made up 38% of Sandisk's NAND shipments by storage capacity in the fourth quarter, compared with 12% a year earlier.

Sandisk is also locking in future demand. Sandisk's long-term customer contracts are worth at least $93.9 billion based on their minimum pricing terms. They also cover more than half of the NAND volume expected in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds of the expected fiscal 2028 volume.

Management expects annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030. The company also expects non-GAAP gross margins of roughly 80% and adjusted free cash flow equal to about 50% of revenue during this period.

The margin target is especially important. If strong AI demand and long-term contracts help keep margins high, Sandisk could remain very profitable even if NAND prices fall.

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Where could Sandisk stock be in 2031? Analysts currently expect Sandisk to generate about $49.1 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027. From there, assume 17% annual revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030, roughly in line with the midpoint of management's mid-to-high-teens growth target. As Sandisk's revenue base grows larger, assume a slightly slower year-over-year revenue growth of 15% for fiscal 2031 and 12% for fiscal 2032. Hence, fiscal 2032 revenues are estimated to be close to $101.2 billion.

Sandisk is currently trading at roughly 4.9 times Wall Street's fiscal 2027 revenue estimate. If the company can eventually convert around half of its revenue into adjusted free cash flow as management expects, a 4.9 times sales multiple would imply a price-to-free cash flow multiple of less than 10. Hence, the assumed valuation seems reasonable if Sandisk can maintain strong growth and margins in the next five years.

If the stock continues to trade at the same forward price-to-sales multiple in fiscal 2031, Sandisk's market value would be about $495.9 billion. Assuming the outstanding share count remains nearly 146.4 million, that would put the stock at roughly $3,387 per share. This implies an upside of around 108%, with a five-year annualized return of roughly 15.8% from its current share price (as of Aug 18, 2026). The estimate, however, assumes Sandisk's share count remains unchanged, even though the company still has $15.5 billion available for share repurchases.

Based on these assumptions, Sandisk stock could reach about $3,387 in five years. However, NAND prices and margins remain the key risks. If NAND prices fall sharply and profitability weakens, investors may be unwilling to pay the same valuation for the stock.

Allworth Financial LP purchased a new stake in shares of Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK – Free Report) during the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The firm purchased 3,804 shares of the data storage provider’s stock, valued at approximately $8,649,000.

Other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Greenspring Advisors LLC purchased a new position in shares of Sandisk during the second quarter valued at approximately $1,319,000. B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. AG purchased a new stake in Sandisk in the second quarter worth approximately $10,073,000. NFJ Investment Group LLC bought a new stake in Sandisk in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $20,179,000. Virtus Advisers LLC bought a new stake in Sandisk in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $164,000. Finally, Silvant Capital Management LLC bought a new stake in Sandisk in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $44,465,000.

Sandisk Stock Performance Shares of Sandisk stock opened at $1,600.62 on Friday. Sandisk Corporation has a one year low of $43.56 and a one year high of $2,354.39. The stock’s fifty day moving average is $1,663.24 and its 200 day moving average is $1,217.48. The stock has a market cap of $234.36 billion, a P/E ratio of 21.96, a P/E/G ratio of 0.16 and a beta of 5.20.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Wednesday, August 5th. The data storage provider reported $39.25 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $33.28 by $5.97. Sandisk had a return on equity of 87.84% and a net margin of 56.47%.The company had revenue of $8.96 billion for the quarter. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.29 earnings per share. Sandisk’s revenue for the quarter was up 371.6% on a year-over-year basis. Sandisk has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 44.000-46.000 EPS. Analysts predict that Sandisk Corporation will post 208.92 EPS for the current year. Sandisk declared that its board has authorized a share repurchase program on Wednesday, August 5th that allows the company to repurchase $14.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization allows the data storage provider to reacquire up to 6.6% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase programs are typically an indication that the company’s leadership believes its stock is undervalued.

Insider Activity In other news, insider Bernard Shek sold 600 shares of Sandisk stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,162.16, for a total transaction of $697,296.00. Following the transaction, the insider directly owned 30,915 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $35,928,176.40. The trade was a 1.90% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, EVP Alper Ilkbahar sold 2,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,756.58, for a total transaction of $3,513,160.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president owned 52,677 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $92,531,364.66. The trade was a 3.66% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Insiders sold 3,800 shares of company stock worth $6,504,856 in the last ninety days. Corporate insiders own 0.21% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Sandisk Here are the key news stories impacting Sandisk this week:

Positive Sentiment: Wall Street is increasingly focused on SanDisk’s long-term earnings potential. Rising AI-generated data is expected to drive demand for high-capacity NAND storage, while the company’s contract-based sales strategy could make results and margins more predictable than in past memory cycles. SanDisk’s long-term financial outlook is turning heads on Wall Street Positive Sentiment: Several analyses argue that AI infrastructure demand could support substantially higher earnings and potentially enable margins near 80%, challenging the view that SanDisk remains solely a commodity memory producer. From Commodity to Cash Machine? SanDisk Targets 80% Margins in AI Storage Boom Positive Sentiment: Market commentary remains bullish on SanDisk’s upside earnings potential despite weakness across memory stocks, with the broader thesis that every additional byte created by AI requires a storage destination. SanDisk Thesis: Every Byte AI Creates Needs A Home Neutral Sentiment: Technical traders are watching for a rebound toward the mid-$1,600s, with resistance near $1,696.50 and support around $1,485. This suggests elevated volatility rather than a clear change in fundamentals. What’s Going On With SanDisk Stock Thursday? Neutral Sentiment: Investor opinion is divided after the stock’s extraordinary 12-month advance; some hedge funds remain optimistic, while others are reducing exposure or taking profits. SanDisk Is Up 3,911% Over Twelve Months Negative Sentiment: Shares faced pressure alongside Micron and other memory companies as an Asian technology selloff highlighted continuing sector volatility. Why Are Micron and SanDisk Stocks Falling Today Negative Sentiment: Investors are questioning the durability of SanDisk’s record revenue because roughly two-thirds reportedly came from pricing, leaving results vulnerable if NAND prices weaken. SanDisk drops before OCP Korea Tech Day Negative Sentiment: Appaloosa, managed by David Tepper, exited its entire 281,250-share SanDisk position during the quarter in which the stock reached its recent high, adding profit-taking and valuation concerns. David Tepper Sold His Entire Sandisk Stake Analysts Set New Price Targets Several equities analysts have recently weighed in on the company. Susquehanna lowered their price target on Sandisk from $3,250.00 to $3,050.00 and set a “positive” rating on the stock in a report on Thursday, July 23rd. Bank of America lifted their price objective on Sandisk from $2,100.00 to $2,500.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, July 1st. Mizuho set a $1,900.00 price objective on Sandisk in a research report on Friday, August 14th. New Street Research set a $3,000.00 target price on Sandisk in a report on Thursday, August 6th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company raised their target price on Sandisk from $1,400.00 to $1,550.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 13th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty have assigned a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Sandisk currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $1,999.27.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on Sandisk

Sandisk Profile (Free Report)

SanDisk Corporation offers flash storage solutions. The Company designs, develops and manufactures data storage solutions in a range of form factors using flash memory, controller, firmware and software technologies. The Company operates through flash memory storage products segment. Its solutions include a range of solid state drives (SSD), embedded products, removable cards, universal serial bus (USB), drives, wireless media drives, digital media players, and wafers and components. It offers SSDs for client computing applications, which encompass desktop computers, notebook computers, tablets and other computing devices.

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Algebris UK Ltd. purchased a new position in Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK – Free Report) during the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund purchased 603 shares of the data storage provider’s stock, valued at approximately $1,367,000.

A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of the business. Handelsbanken Fonder AB increased its position in shares of Sandisk by 35.1% in the 2nd quarter. Handelsbanken Fonder AB now owns 57,564 shares of the data storage provider’s stock worth $130,885,000 after purchasing an additional 14,964 shares during the last quarter. Allworth Financial LP grew its stake in Sandisk by 84.2% in the fourth quarter. Allworth Financial LP now owns 4,521 shares of the data storage provider’s stock worth $1,073,000 after purchasing an additional 2,067 shares in the last quarter. Tredje AP fonden acquired a new position in Sandisk in the fourth quarter worth about $7,821,000. ProShare Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Sandisk by 1,301.5% in the fourth quarter. ProShare Advisors LLC now owns 33,637 shares of the data storage provider’s stock valued at $7,985,000 after buying an additional 31,237 shares during the last quarter. Finally, FourThought Financial Partners LLC bought a new stake in Sandisk in the fourth quarter valued at about $422,000.

Insider Activity In related news, insider Bernard Shek sold 600 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,162.16, for a total value of $697,296.00. Following the sale, the insider owned 30,915 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $35,928,176.40. This trade represents a 1.90% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, EVP Alper Ilkbahar sold 2,000 shares of Sandisk stock in a transaction dated Monday, June 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,756.58, for a total transaction of $3,513,160.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 52,677 shares in the company, valued at approximately $92,531,364.66. This represents a 3.66% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders have sold 3,800 shares of company stock valued at $6,504,856 in the last 90 days. Insiders own 0.21% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research firms have commented on SNDK. Raymond James Financial reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and set a $1,470.00 target price on shares of Sandisk in a report on Friday, May 1st. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an “overweight” rating and issued a $2,900.00 price target on shares of Sandisk in a report on Monday, August 10th. Royal Bank Of Canada upped their price target on Sandisk from $1,300.00 to $1,600.00 and gave the company a “sector perform” rating in a research report on Friday, August 14th. Barclays upgraded Sandisk from an “equal weight” rating to an “overweight” rating and raised their price objective for the stock from $1,200.00 to $2,300.00 in a research note on Tuesday, May 26th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company lifted their price objective on shares of Sandisk from $1,400.00 to $1,550.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a report on Thursday, August 13th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty have issued a Buy rating and three have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Sandisk has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $1,999.27. Read Our Latest Report on SNDK

More Sandisk News Here are the key news stories impacting Sandisk this week:

Positive Sentiment: Memory stocks rebounded in early trading after SK Hynix approved a roughly $29 billion share buyback and treasury-share cancellation. The broader sector strength provided support for Sandisk and reinforced investor confidence in favorable memory-market conditions. SK Hynix Rises 6% on $29B Buyback, SanDisk Gains 5%, Micron Climbs 3% as Memory Names Rebound Positive Sentiment: Analysts and investors continue to highlight Sandisk’s AI-driven flash-storage demand and its shift toward contract-based sales. The strategy could make NAND revenue and margins more predictable, with management targeting gross margins near 80% and substantial free-cash-flow generation over the long term. From Commodity to Cash Machine? Sandisk Targets 80% Margins in AI Storage Boom Neutral Sentiment: Sandisk’s international revenue performance and strong recent earnings remain important factors in Wall Street forecasts, but the stock’s exceptional one-year gain has created disagreement among hedge funds over whether the long-term growth outlook justifies the valuation. Sandisk Corporation International Revenue Performance Explored Neutral Sentiment: Technical analysts see major resistance levels ahead, leaving the shares vulnerable to further consolidation unless they regain key support levels. Sandisk Price Forecast: Can SNDK Defend Its Recovery? Negative Sentiment: Investors are questioning earnings quality after reports indicated that approximately two-thirds of Sandisk’s record revenue growth came from pricing rather than volume. That raises concerns about how durable results will be if NAND prices moderate ahead of the company’s technology-day presentations. SanDisk Drops Before OCP Korea Tech Day Negative Sentiment: David Tepper’s Appaloosa disclosed that it sold all 281,250 Sandisk shares held at the end of the prior quarter, during the period when the stock reached its record high. The sale adds to profit-taking concerns after the parabolic advance. David Tepper Sold His Entire Sandisk Stake Negative Sentiment: Higher Treasury yields and a broader rotation away from crowded AI and semiconductor trades have pressured memory stocks, including Sandisk, Micron and Western Digital. The sector’s high beta makes SNDK particularly sensitive to changes in risk appetite. Higher Rates Test the Memory Boom Sandisk Trading Down 3.5% Shares of Sandisk stock opened at $1,568.87 on Thursday. The stock has a market capitalization of $229.71 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.52, a PEG ratio of 0.16 and a beta of 5.20. Sandisk Corporation has a twelve month low of $43.20 and a twelve month high of $2,354.39. The business’s 50 day simple moving average is $1,668.86 and its 200-day simple moving average is $1,210.26.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 5th. The data storage provider reported $39.25 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $33.28 by $5.97. The business had revenue of $8.96 billion during the quarter. Sandisk had a return on equity of 87.84% and a net margin of 56.47%.The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 371.6% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm earned $0.29 EPS. Sandisk has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 44.000-46.000 EPS. Sell-side analysts predict that Sandisk Corporation will post 208.92 earnings per share for the current year.

Sandisk declared that its Board of Directors has initiated a share repurchase program on Wednesday, August 5th that allows the company to repurchase $14.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization allows the data storage provider to repurchase up to 6.6% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase programs are generally a sign that the company’s board of directors believes its stock is undervalued.

About Sandisk (Free Report)

SanDisk Corporation offers flash storage solutions. The Company designs, develops and manufactures data storage solutions in a range of form factors using flash memory, controller, firmware and software technologies. The Company operates through flash memory storage products segment. Its solutions include a range of solid state drives (SSD), embedded products, removable cards, universal serial bus (USB), drives, wireless media drives, digital media players, and wafers and components. It offers SSDs for client computing applications, which encompass desktop computers, notebook computers, tablets and other computing devices.

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SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) has done something almost no large-cap stock ever does. Shares are up 3,911.79% over the past twelve months, riding an AI-driven NAND cycle that has taken the stock from $44.54 in August 2025 to $1,629.67 today.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for SanDisk is $2,164.26, implying 32.8% upside over the next twelve months. We rate the stock a buy with high confidence at 90%.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $1,629.67 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $2,164.26 Upside 32.8% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% A Parabolic Move That Split the Institutional World SanDisk sits 10% below its 52-week high of $2,354.39, having climbed 652.74% year to date and 44.34% in the last week alone.

Q4 fiscal 2026 results reported August 5 showed non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 beating estimates by 17.94%, revenue of $8.965 billion up 371.6% year over year, and datacenter revenue reaching $2.977 billion, up 103% sequentially.

Management guided Q1 FY27 to revenue of $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $44 to $46. Hedge fund disagreement surfaces in the options chain: the full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.85 but January 2027 expiries carry 1.98, indicating serious downside hedging.

Why Bulls See $2,500 and Higher The bull case points to $2,497.31, or 53% upside. CEO David Goeckeler described NAND as “the most scalable semiconductor technology in the world” and framed inference as the defining force in memory. New business model agreements now cover 10 signed deals with a minimum $93.9 billion in expected revenue and $16.5 billion in customer financial guarantees.

Remaining performance obligations sit at $91.1 billion including two post-quarter NBMs. Management expects “over four years of visibility” into customer demand and the NAND market to approach $500 billion in calendar 2027.

What Could Go Wrong The bear case gets to $1,526.65, or roughly 6% below current levels. Consumer revenue fell 32% quarter over quarter to $556 million, and PC and smartphone units are down mid-teens in calendar 2026. Q1 FY27 gross margin guidance of 83% to 84.9% slipped from the 84.6% reported in Q4 despite pricing tailwinds.

Bulls counter that lower margins reflect mix normalization in multi-year NBM contracts as pricing steps down over the contract life, and the Q4 non-GAAP operating margin of 79.2% leaves cushion. A stock that ran 3,911.79% in a year needs sustained execution to hold that multiple.

How SanDisk Compares to Micron and Western Digital Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) is the more direct memory peer with combined DRAM and NAND exposure. Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026 delivered $41.46 billion in revenue, up 345.7% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11. At a market cap near $1.07 trillion, Micron trades on a larger revenue base than SanDisk, but its data center-driven multiple expansion validates the trajectory our target implies for SNDK.

Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), SanDisk’s former parent, offers a cleaner valuation contrast on the HDD side of AI storage. Western Digital’s fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 43.8% to $3.75 billion with EPS of $3.56, and it carries a market cap of $172.19 billion. SanDisk’s forward P/E of 26 is defensible against this peer group and makes our $2,164 target a reasonable extension of peer multiples.

SanDisk Price Prediction 2026 to 2030 The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $2,164.26 reflects a buy rating at 90% confidence. The swing factor is NBM execution: $93.9 billion in minimum contracted revenue with hyperscaler cash backing is the single most durable data point in the memory sector today. That kind of setup, an early winner with contracted demand years out, is the pattern we broke down in a free playbook on spotting the next Nvidia-scale runner.

Watch bit growth staying mid-to-high teens and gross margins holding above 80% as confirmation of the thesis. Warning signs would include consumer weakness spreading to the datacenter mix or the NAND market showing early oversupply signals in late 2027.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $2,164 2027 $2,540 2028 $2,930 2029 $3,290 2030 $3,651 These projections assume SanDisk executes on its NBM strategy and the AI inference cycle sustains structural memory tightness through 2028. Significant upside or downside would come from HBF adoption, hyperscaler capex trends, or a supply shock from Kioxia through Flash Ventures.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Did you know that memory stock Sandisk (SNDK +8.88%) has been the top performer in the S&P 500 index this year, by a wide margin? Entering trading this week, it was up over 600% and far ahead of the next-best stock, Dell, whose gains are less than 300%.

It's been a remarkable run for Sandisk as it has soared over 3,400% in just the past 12 months. The company has grown significantly due to artificial intelligence (AI)-fueled demand for its memory and storage products. And for growth investors, there may be reason to remain bullish on the stock following the tech company's long-term forecast.

Image source: Getty Images.

Sandisk expects double-digit growth heading into 2030 Sandisk recently held its Investor Day event, where it told the public that it expects its growth rate to be in the mid-to-high teens as it enters the next decade. In addition, the company projects that its adjusted gross margins will also be at about 80%.

This is great news, as it means demand won't fall off a cliff, as many investors may have feared, given the stock's pullback in recent weeks. While Sandisk has been doing tremendously well this year, it finished last week at around $1,600, down more than 30% from the highs it reached in June.

Many investors may have been worried about the company benefiting from just a short-term uptick in demand due to AI. But the recent guidance may have put some of those fears to rest as the stock has been rising sharply in recent days.

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Should you buy Sandisk's stock today? For its current quarter, Sandisk projects that revenue will be between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, which would represent a year-over-year increase of 357% from the same period a year earlier. A year ago, its growth rate was 23%.

Sandisk's growth is exciting, but it is also proving to be highly volatile, and that can make the stock a bit of a risky buy because so much hinges on future growth expectations. For investors to buy the stock, they will need to be comfortable taking on risk and expecting volatility, because while Sandisk's stock has been hot over the past year, it has also demonstrated just how quickly its value can come crashing down.

In the short term, the stock may have more room to rise higher, but investors should monitor industry developments closely, as news related to supply forecasts may weigh more heavily on the stock than the company's own results.

Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) stock gained almost 6% during Monday’s premarket session as risk appetite firms into the open and traders lean into the stock’s longer-term uptrend. Nasdaq futures are up 0.49% while S&P 500 futures have gained 0.14%.

Sandisk is drawing bullish attention from semiconductor analysts who see its shift toward multi-year customer contracts, rising AI-driven storage demand and expanding cash generation as forces that could make the traditionally cyclical memory business more predictable and profitable.

CEO Says Long-Term Contracts Are Reshaping the BusinessSandisk CEO David Goeckeler said the company now has detailed visibility into customer purchases for the next four years, including month-by-month demand forecasts.

“We know exactly what our customers are going to buy for the next 4 years,” Goeckeler said. Sandisk is responding by holding more finished goods so it can meet those commitments more predictably.

Goeckeler expects the transition to create “a very, very different business” by 2027, 2028 and 2029.

Cantor’s Muse Sees Significant Cash GenerationCantor Fitzgerald semiconductor analyst CJ Muse told CNBC last Friday that Sandisk could generate about $150 billion in free cash flow over the next four years, equivalent to roughly two-thirds of its current market capitalization.

Muse views the durability of Sandisk’s multi-year pricing contracts as central to that outlook. He also highlighted management’s plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders, primarily through buybacks, and described its 50% free cash flow margin target as “a pretty positive signal.”

Muse expects AI inference demand and the long timelines required to add new manufacturing capacity to keep industry supply tight for at least the next two to three years. He also projects Sandisk could generate more than $400 in earnings per share by 2030 if it delivers on its long-term framework.

Melius’ Reitzes Says AI Has Changed the Memory CycleMelius Research’s Ben Reitzes also told CNBC last Friday that AI has changed the traditional memory playbook. He said major customers increasingly want multi-year contracts with suppliers such as Sandisk and Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) because they recognize that insufficient memory could constrain their AI infrastructure.

Reitzes argued that rising token usage and growing memory requirements are making reliable supply more strategically important for customers such as Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google.

He estimates Sandisk could repurchase roughly $100 billion of stock over the next three years and believes strong demand could allow the company to redirect supply if a customer breaks a contract.

Analysts See Greater Visibility and Less CyclicalityBoth Muse and Reitzes view Sandisk’s customer commitments as a turning point. Their outlook rests on the idea that AI-driven demand and longer-term contracts can give Sandisk better pricing and volume visibility while reducing some of the volatility historically associated with memory markets.

Muse emphasizes Sandisk’s potential earnings and free cash flow expansion, while Reitzes focuses on the opportunity to deploy that cash through significant share repurchases. Together, their views suggest that Sandisk’s evolving business model could support stronger and more durable shareholder returns if customer commitments and AI demand remain intact.

Sandisk carries a Buy consensus rating with an average price forecast of $2,213.71.

On Friday, RBC Capital raised its price forecast to $1,600 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. Wells Fargo raised its forecast to $1,550 and kept an Equal-Weight rating. Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating and a $2,000 price forecast.

Top ETF Exposure Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (NYSE:RPG): 9.61% Weight First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (NYSE:FPX): 7.37% Weight Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF (NASDAQ:PTF): 7.06% Weight Significance: Because SNDK carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

Price ActionSNDK Stock Price Activity: SanDisk shares were up 5.68% at $1734.40 during premarket trading on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo via Shutterstock

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Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are in focus on Monday after closing sharply higher on Friday, as a long-term margin forecast from US flash-memory maker SanDisk gave investors reason to reassess how long the AI-driven memory boom could last.

South Korean markets are closed Monday for the Liberation Day holiday.

On Friday, Samsung rose 2.43% to 274,500 won and SK Hynix climbed 3.26% to 1.645 million won, helping the KOSPI finish 2.41% higher at 6,977.34.

The catalyst was SanDisk’s investor day, where the company laid out a framework that challenged assumptions about memory cyclicality.

SanDisk expects mid- to high-teens revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through 2030, alongside non-GAAP gross margins of about 80% and operating margins near 75%.

For Samsung and SK Hynix, the significance lies in what those targets imply for the industry.

Memory has historically followed a familiar pattern. Strong pricing boosts profits, encourages investment and eventually brings enough new supply to crush margins.

SanDisk is arguing that AI demand, tight capacity and longer-term customer agreements could keep industry profitability far above historical norms for years.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur said SanDisk was “uniquely positioned to capture the ongoing structural inflection in NAND demand” driven by AI inference.

He also argued that longer customer agreements had improved the company’s margin profile while reducing the boom-and-bust volatility associated with memory.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore offered another bullish read.

MarketWatch reported that Moore believes SanDisk could “stay at or above these margin levels for multiple years” while shortages persist, although he questioned whether operating margins around 75% could be sustained indefinitely.

That message fits a shift in analyst expectations around the memory cycle.

Macquarie Capital analysts said the industry is facing the “worst memory crunch in history” and see no sign of supply constraints easing within the next three years.

The firm described AI inference-related memory demand as “off the charts” and expects Samsung and SK Hynix to lead the Korean market’s near-term recovery.

Inference matters because running AI models at scale requires vast amounts of memory and storage, not just computing power.

As AI usage expands, data centres need more HBM and DRAM, while NAND demand can rise as operators seek cheaper ways to store and retrieve the vast quantities of data generated by AI workloads.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman told MarketWatch that SanDisk’s planned high-bandwidth flash could become a “huge new growth driver for NAND demand.”

He added that the technology could consume substantially more wafer capacity, potentially keeping supply conditions tighter for longer.

The bullish case does not mean the memory cycle has disappeared.

Moore’s caution is important. SanDisk’s current profitability reflects an exceptional shortage, and an 80% gross-margin framework leaves little room for disappointment if supply expands faster than expected.

The same risk applies to Samsung and SK Hynix.

Both stand to benefit if AI infrastructure spending continues to absorb new capacity, but high prices also give manufacturers a powerful incentive to invest in additional production capacity.

SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) laid out its Investor Day targets on August 13, presenting a new financial model that sent the stock price soaring 14% and reinforced analyst confidence in long-term Sandisk stock price targets.

Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating and $2,800 price target on the company, highlighting the potential for higher margins, improved free cash flow, and capital returns.

Indeed, SanDisk management outlined long-term financial targets through fiscal 2030, including mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, approximately 80% gross margins, roughly 75% operating margins, and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margins. 

On his part, Daryanani believes SanDisk could sustain gross margins around 80% through the peak of the current semiconductor cycle, supported by NAND prices that have more than tripled over the past year, before settling at roughly 65%-70% post-peak. 

The analyst also estimates SanDisk could generate as much as $35 billion in annual free cash flow during the early stages of the cycle, potentially supporting substantial buybacks beginning in 2027.

A potentially crucial catalyst comes in the shape of the company’s High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology. SanDisk expects to begin shipping HBF samples in 2027 and says the technology is designed to deliver HBM-class read bandwidth with approximately 16 times the capacity. 

Mizuho doubles on its Sandisk stock price target on HBF optimism
Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh likewise reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $1,900 Sandisk stock price prediction 2026, focusing primarily on the aforementioned HBF technology, which the company believes can deliver HBM-like bandwidth at a fraction of the cost. 

Notably, Rakesh estimates a 16-stack HBF configuration could provide HBM-like bandwidth at roughly one-eighth the cost while offering 8-16x the capacity at a similar cost to HBM. SanDisk expects its first HBF dies and controllers in the C26E/C27E timeframe, with potential revenue beginning in C28E.

However, SanDisk emphasized that HBF is not necessarily intended to replace HBM. Instead, the technology could enable disaggregated memory architectures for AI inference, potentially improving system economics and efficiency, and the company is already working with major technology players, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL).

Moreover, Mizuho expects NAND pricing to remain supportive and sees demand as stronger than current consensus assumptions. While consensus estimates call for 2027 ASPs to decline 15-20% year over year, Mizuho expects ASPs to remain roughly flat to higher, citing strong demand from agentic and edge AI, HBF, and undersupplied consumer markets.

Wall Street Sandisk stock consensus
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant also reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on SanDisk, as did Barclays’ Thomas O’Malley, with $2,100 and 2,300 price targets, respectively.

With these numbers, the average SNDK share price target for the next 12 months sits at $2,181, which suggests a nearly 43% upside potential from the current levels, based on the latest TipRanks data.

Sandisk price target 2026. Source: TipRanks
As per the same data, Sandisk is currently rated a ‘Strong Buy,’ with 14 buying and two holding recommendations over the past three months.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) stock is surging 15% to $1,545.35 on Thursday as investors digest the memory maker’s new long-term financial model and growth strategy. Sandisk’s 2026 Investor Day laid out an ambitious framework for fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030, including mid-to-high teens revenue growth, approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margins and approximately 50% adjusted free cash flow margins.

The enthusiasm isn’t limited to Sandisk stock. SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) stock is up 8% to $166.26, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) stock is climbing 6% to $963.28 and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) stock is rising 8% to $490.10. The Roundhill Memory ETF (CBOE:DRAM) is also advancing 5% to $57.33, suggesting investors are viewing Sandisk’s outlook as another positive signal for the broader memory industry.

Sandisk Sets An Aggressive Long-Term Financial Model Sandisk expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high teens rate from FY2028 through FY2030, supported by continued bit growth and rising demand for storage tied to artificial intelligence. Sandisk also expects non-GAAP gross margins to remain near 80% and non-GAAP operating margins to reach approximately 75%, with operating expenses representing roughly 5% of revenue.

The free cash flow outlook is equally striking. Sandisk expects an adjusted free cash flow margin of approximately 50% after taxes, capital expenditures and working capital investments, while Sandisk also expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders after funding the business.

AI Storage Demand Could Support Memory Stocks Sandisk’s bullish case rests partly on the increasingly storage-intensive nature of AI inference workloads. Sandisk expects the total available market for enterprise data-center flash to reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2030 as growing token use and key-value cache requirements reshape data-center memory hierarchies.

Sandisk is also advancing its NAND technology roadmap, including BiCS9 QLC and BiCS10 QLC products. Sandisk says BiCS10 QLC delivers a 60% increase in bit density compared with BiCS8, potentially helping Sandisk address demand for greater storage density, performance and power efficiency.

New Business Model Reduces Industry Volatility Sandisk’s new business model could provide another reason for investors to take the outlook seriously. Sandisk has signed New Business Model agreements with eight customers, representing approximately 50% of bits in FY2027 and approximately two-thirds of bits in FY2028, giving Sandisk greater visibility into customer demand and capacity planning.

The agreements could also make Sandisk’s earnings less exposed to traditional memory-industry volatility. Yet, the broader memory cycle remains a risk for SK Hynix and Micron as well, since elevated expectations could leave memory stocks vulnerable if demand or pricing eventually falls short.

Memory Stocks Have Plenty Of Expectations To Meet The immediate market reaction shows how much investors like Sandisk’s new framework. Sandisk stock is surging 15%, while other memory/storage names like SK Hynix, Western Digital, and of course Micron Technology are climbing rapidly, giving the broader memory/storage stock basket a powerful lift.

Still, the optimism creates a higher bar for execution through 2030. Sandisk’s projected margins are unusually strong, while memory stocks can remain cyclical despite structural AI demand, so investors may want to keep their positions modest rather than assume today’s enthusiasm will persist indefinitely.

Sandisk’s long-term model provides a credible bullish argument for continued strength in memory stocks, particularly if AI-driven storage demand develops as expected. However, Sandisk stock has already made a substantial move, and investors should consider keeping their share-position sizes moderate if they choose to participate while watching for whether Sandisk can translate its new agreements and technology roadmap into sustained cash generation.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

SanDisk stock price has crashed into a deep bear market, moving from a record high of $2,367 in June to the current $1,271. This retreat happened even after the strong earnings report and forward guidance amid the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom. So, will the bear market continue or will it bounce back soon?

The SNDK stock has dropped sharply this year, even after its recent earnings report showed that its business is firing on all cylinders amid the ongoing AI boom. 

Its fourth-quarter revenue jumped to $8.97 billion, up by 51% from the third quarter and 372% from what it made in the same period last year. This growth makes it one of the fastest-growing companies in the United States.

SanDisk’s revenue growth was because of the large memory orders from some of the biggest companies in the world. At the same time, the shortage has led to a sharp increase in memory prices, a trend that may continue in the foreseeable future.

For one, Nvidia has come up with a plan to raise $500 billion to fund the AI data center build. Also, the biggest companies in the data center space, including popular names like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet plans to spend over $750 billion this year, and possibly more next year. Some of these funds will go towards memory purchases. 

SanDisk is already sold out for the year, and management believes that it has a sales visibility for the next four years. This means that it expects its revenue growth to continue in this period.

The company has also become highly profitable, with its net income rising to $6.9 billion from a loss of $23 million in the same period last year. 

Analysts are highly bullish on the company’s growth. The average estimate is that its revenue will rise by 363% to $10.7 billion. Its second-quarter revenue is expected to jump by 305% to $12.27 billion.

For the year, the company’s revenue is expected to jump by 141% to $48.9 billion, followed by $58.2 billion next year. The EPS is expected to jump to $213, followed by $265 next year. 

There are signs that the company is highly undervalued, which explains why most analysts are highly bullish on the firm. For one, the company now trades with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8, giving it an A+ rating on Seeking Alpha. This multiple is much lower than the sector median of 23. Its forward PEG ratio stands at 0.14.

The company’s rule-of-40 metric is also much higher than the benchmark of 40. It has an annual forward revenue growth of 141% and a net income margin of 56%, giving it a multiple of 197%. 

Top analysts have a bullish outlook for the company. Cantor Fitzgerald has an overweight rating, while Argus hiked the rating from hold to buy. Bernstein reiterated an outperform rating. The consensus target among analysts is $1,853, up by 45% from the current level. 

SanDisk stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the SanDisk stock has strong technicals. It has formed a large descending channel, whose up and lower swing since June 16 this year.

The channel is part of the bullish flag pattern. It remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bulls are still in control. It has also formed a bullish divergence as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising, potentially to the psychological level of $2,000. A drop below the 200-day EMA will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Key Takeaways Sandisk has eight multiyear Datacenter and Edge deals covering over 50% of fiscal 2027 bits.Sandisk's Datacenter bit mix rose to 38% from about 12% as enterprise SSD adoption broadened.SNDK guides fiscal Q1 2027 revenues to $10.3B-$10.8B and non-GAAP EPS to $44-$46. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK - Free Report) used its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call to emphasize multiyear customer commitments, rising AI-related storage demand and a more predictable NAND business model.

The quarter’s non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.24. Revenues of $8.97 billion beat the consensus mark of $8.30 billion.

SNDK Locks in Multiyear DemandExecutive VP and CFO Luis Visoso said Sandisk now has New Business Model agreements with eight Datacenter and Edge customers, with a weighted average duration above four years.

Those agreements are expected to cover more than 50% of fiscal 2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits. Minimum expected revenues at floor pricing total $93.9 billion.

Chairman and CEO David V. Goeckeler said customers are already returning to request more supply, reinforcing management's focus on selective, long-duration agreements with strategic buyers.

Sandisk Expands AI Storage ExposureGoeckeler said Datacenter exited fiscal 2026 at 38% of Sandisk's bit mix, up from roughly 12% a year earlier, as enterprise SSD adoption broadened.

He tied that shift to AI inference, where expanding models, longer context lengths and agentic workloads increase storage requirements. Sandisk also began revenue shipments of its QLC Stargate platform.

During Q&A, a Citi analyst asked about KV-cache demand. Goeckeler said customer discussions continue to deepen and management has become more optimistic about NAND requirements as AI architectures mature.

SNDK Guides for Another Step-UpVisoso guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenues to $10.3-$10.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $44-$46, with growth from both higher bits and modest price increases.

Non-GAAP gross margin is expected at 83-85%, while non-GAAP operating expenses are projected at $520-$540 million as Sandisk continues investing in R&D.

Visoso also said Sandisk expects the NAND market to exceed $300 billion in calendar 2026 and approach $500 billion in 2027, with customer demand growing faster than supply.

Sandisk Defends Margin DurabilityA Melius Research analyst pressed management on NBM economics. Visoso said the company continues to expect margins around 80% on those agreements, with upside when pricing rises.

A Cantor Fitzgerald analyst asked why gross-margin guidance did not rise despite modest pricing gains. Goeckeler said Sandisk is balancing returns with longer duration and greater business visibility.

Visoso added that NBMs should not be viewed as a margin drag. He cited mix, component-cost assumptions and the guidance range as the main factors shaping the near-term outlook.

SNDK Keeps Supply Growth DisciplinedVisoso said Sandisk remains committed to mid to high-teens long-term bit growth, primarily through technology transitions rather than major wafer additions.

For fiscal 2027, sellable bit growth is expected in the mid-teens as the company carries more inventory to support NBM commitments. Capital spending is projected near 6% of revenues.

A Morgan Stanley analyst asked whether Sandisk could accelerate spending. Visoso said the current plan remains appropriate, while Goeckeler said nodal transitions provide flexibility to track market demand.

Sandisk Accelerates Capital ReturnsSandisk repurchased $4.5 billion of stock during the quarter, and its board authorized another $14 billion, bringing remaining repurchase authorization to $15.5 billion.

Goeckeler said management expects consistent execution of the buyback program, supported by confidence in the portfolio's cash generation.

Visoso said investment in the business remains the first priority, followed by maintaining a strong cash position. He described share repurchases as the preferred current vehicle for returning excess cash.

SNDK Enters Fiscal 2027 With More VisibilityManagement's message centered on replacing quarterly transaction-driven planning with multiyear customer commitments, while keeping supply additions disciplined and tied to technology transitions.

Goeckeler emphasized deeper strategic engagement with major customers, while Visoso focused on attractive agreement economics, R&D investment and continued shareholder returns.

Zacks Signals for SNDKSNDK sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Its Growth Score and VGM Score are both A, complementing that top rank. SNDK’s Value Score and Momentum Score are both B.

Zacks Style Scores identify A and B grades as favorable, particularly alongside a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank can change as analyst estimates are revised following the newly reported results. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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SummarySandisk's Q4 revenue surged 51% sequentially to $8.97 billion, while gross margin expanded dramatically to 84.6%.Datacenter revenue jumped 103% sequentially to roughly $3 billion, as AI inference fundamentally reshapes NAND demand.Eight NBM agreements provide $93.9 billion in minimum expected revenue, covering over half of fiscal 2027 bit supply.SNDK repurchased $4.5 billion of stock and subsequently increased its buyback authorization by another $14 billion. Jian Fan/iStock via Getty Images

My positive outlook on Sandisk (SNDK) has been reinforced post-fiscal Q4 2026 despite the market increasingly growing concerns about the NAND cycle being near its peak. Sandisk is down on the back of

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SNDK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Sandisk (SNDK -3.68%) has been one of the hottest stocks in the market over the past year, up over 2,820%, but the stock continued its recent retreat following its fiscal Q4 earnings report and is now off around 47% from its June highs.

The memory chip maker continued to see surging revenue and substantial gross margin expansion in its fiscal Q4 that ended July 3. However, fiscal Q1 revenue guidance that fell just below analyst expectations helped sink the stock, as investors continue to look for signs that the memory cycle may turn.

Image source: The Motely Fool.

Trading near-term gains for more sustainable growth Sandisk has benefited from soaring NAND (flash) memory prices, as the market remains supply-constrained. This is largely due to the big three memory makers reducing NAND production and shifting their focus toward DRAM (dynamic random access memory) following a crash in the NAND market after the pandemic pulled forward demand for electronics.

However, NAND demand soon shot up as AI data centers suddenly began using enormous, high-performance solid-state drives (SSDs) composed of flash memory to store training data. Meanwhile, NAND capacity has been slow to increase, as the big three memory makers pour most of their resources into high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which gets packaged with graphics processing units (GPUs) and other AI chips, to reduce latency and improve power efficiency.

Given how cyclical the flash market has historically been, Sandisk has decided to give up some near-term gains in favor of long-term visibility and durability by signing long-term contracts. That is why the midpoint of its Q1 revenue guidance, between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion ($10.55 billion midpoint), came up just short of the $10.62 billion consensus. Fiscal Q1 gross margins are expected to fall sequentially but remain robust between 83% and 85%, and the midpoint of its projected EPS of between $43 and $46 ($45 midpoint) was above the $44.21 consensus.

The company has added three new long-term deals since its fiscal Q3 earnings report, bringing the total to eight deals with data center and edge customers (devices like smartphones and laptops). It said the contracts include $93.9 billion in revenue at floor pricing and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.

It expects to grow production at a mid-to-high-teens rate going forward and said that, with four years of visibility, supply and demand will catch up. It expects continued downward pressure in the consumer market this year, with smartphone and PC units down and growth returning next year. Meanwhile, it sees agentic AI and KV-cache as major opportunities.

As for the results themselves, Sandisk's revenue soared 372% year over year to $9 billion. Data center revenue went from $213 million a year ago to $3 billion, and more than doubled quarter over quarter. Its Edge segment saw revenue skyrocket 392% to $5.4 billion, while the consumer segment, which includes products like flash drives, saw revenue fall 5% to $556 million.

Revenue growth has largely been driven by higher NAND prices, which have also significantly bolstered the company's gross margins. For the quarter, gross margins climbed from 26.2% last year and 78.4% in fiscal Q3 to 84.6%. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged from $0.29 a year ago to $39.25. That easily surpassed the adjusted EPS range of $30 to $33 it had previously forecast.

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Is the stock a buy on the dip? The biggest knock on Sandisk has been the cyclical nature of its business, so I don't view the company giving up a little near-term revenue and gross margin to lock in longer-term five-year deals to give it more sustained growth and visibility as a bad thing. The company is still making money hand over fist, and it should continue to do so over the next several years.

Meanwhile, Sandisk still has the potential to drive outsize growth through technological advancements like high-bandwidth flash. Developed with SK Hynix, this could become a big technology in the inference market.

Following the pullback, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.6 times fiscal 2027 analyst estimates. If the company is going to be printing money for at least the next four or five years, this looks like an attractive entry point for this AI stock.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) wants to break the cycle that has long defined its industry.

NAND memory has historically swung between shortages, oversupply and volatile pricing, making it difficult for suppliers and customers alike to plan beyond the next few quarters.

Replacing Quarterly Negotiations With Long-Term CommitmentsHistorically, NAND suppliers and customers have negotiated pricing and supply on a relatively short-term basis, leaving both sides exposed to sudden shifts in demand and pricing.

SanDisk’s new business models, or NBMs, establish multi-year purchase commitments with strategic customers. This gives the company clearer visibility into future demand while helping customers secure long-term supply for their infrastructure needs.

SanDisk now has eight NBMs in place with data center and edge customers, with a weighted average duration of more than four years. Management expects those agreements to account for more than half of its NAND shipments in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028.

CEO David Goeckeler said the objective extends well beyond improving margins. “We want to get this kind of… boom and bust out of it. It doesn’t work for anybody,” Goeckeler said.

From Three Months of Visibility to Four YearsManagement believes the biggest benefit of the new approach is visibility.

Just a year ago, the company was planning around only a few months of committed demand. Today, those agreements provide years of forward visibility into customer requirements, allowing SanDisk to better align manufacturing, technology investments and capacity planning.

“A year ago we were talking about visibility in this business of three months and now we’re talking over four years of committed financials and understanding the mix,” Goeckeler said.

That visibility is particularly important as hyperscale customers continue investing in AI infrastructure, where storage requirements are expected to grow over multiple years rather than quarter by quarter.

Management also noted that some customers have already returned to increase their commitments only months after signing their initial agreements, reinforcing its confidence in long-term demand.

SanDisk: Longer-Term Customer Deals Reduce VolatilityGoeckeler said the new agreements have also changed the nature of SanDisk’s customer relationships.

“This used to be, quite frankly, just a supply chain conversation every quarter in a price negotiation,” he said, describing how discussions have evolved beyond transactional purchasing.

Today, he said, those conversations increasingly involve long-term planning with senior executives. “We are literally talking to the CFOs, the CEOs of the largest companies in the world,” Goeckeler said.

For investors, SanDisk isn’t arguing that the NAND market will suddenly stop being cyclical. Instead, management believes longer-term customer commitments and deeper strategic partnerships can reduce the volatility that has historically defined the industry, making the business more predictable than it has been in the past. It seems to have broken the boom-bust cycle.

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Live Coverage Updates appear automatically as they are published.

Live Updates 1 hour ago

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That wraps up our initial coverage of SanDisk’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

1 hour ago

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SanDisk produced $7.08 billion in free cash flow during the fiscal fourth quarter and $5.04 billion in adjusted free cash flow after accounting for payments and deposits related to its New Business Model agreements.

For the full fiscal year, adjusted free cash flow reached $8.74 billion, compared with just $238 million one year earlier. Cash and cash equivalents finished the year at $4.76 billion.

SanDisk’s board responded by authorizing an additional $14 billion share-repurchase program, bringing its total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. The massive buyback reflects management’s belief that AI-driven growth in earnings and cash flow can prove durable.

1 hour ago

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Artificial intelligence demand is rapidly transforming SanDisk’s business. Data Center revenue reached $2.98 billion during the fiscal fourth quarter, more than doubling sequentially from $1.47 billion.

For the full fiscal year, Data Center revenue skyrocketed 437% to $5.15 billion as SanDisk shifted toward higher-value customers. Edge revenue also jumped 195% to $12.16 billion, while the Consumer segment grew a much slower 29%.

SanDisk has now signed five additional New Business Model agreements since its April earnings call, including three contracts with new customers and two expansions of existing deals.

The company has doubled its announced NBM agreement count to 10 in just a few months, strengthening the case that AI storage demand extends well beyond a single quarter.

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SanDisk’s fiscal fourth-quarter results crushed Wall Street expectations, and management expects the momentum to continue into fiscal 2027.

The company guided for first-quarter revenue between $10.3-$10.8 billion, representing another 15% to 20% sequential increase from the fourth quarter’s $8.97 billion. SanDisk also expects adjusted EPS between $44 and $46, up from $39.25 during the latest quarter.

Adjusted gross margin is projected to be between 83% and 85%, remaining close to the extraordinary 84.6% achieved in Q4. Despite the strong outlook, SanDisk shares initially fell 5%, suggesting investors had already priced in another significant increase in guidance.

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SanDisk just reported earnings, with shares initially falling 5% despite beating expectations. Here are the key numbers:

Revenue: $8.965 billion vs. $8.39 billion expected Adjusted EPS: $39.25 vs. $34.52 expected Quick Read:

SanDisk crushed expectations, beating revenue estimates by 7% and EPS expectations by 14%, but the stock still dropped following the release.

Revenue exploded 372% year over year and 51% sequentially, while EPS climbed 68% from the previous quarter.

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Beyond the bull/bear debate, four wildcards aren’t fully priced in ahead of tonight’s report.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SanDisk didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Under-the-Radar Catalysts Options term structure divergence: Aug 7 calls and puts are near parity at 1.04:1, but Jan 2027 LEAPS show puts dominating calls 3.7:1. Institutional hedging suggests skepticism about margin durability. Kioxia JV concentration: Flash Ventures manufacturing dependence remains a single point of failure; any commentary on Kioxia capacity expansion could pressure NAND ASPs. Tariff and FX exposure: Global manufacturing footprint means trade-policy escalation or dollar swings can compress the guided 78.9% to 80.9% gross margin. Intraday tape: Shares are down 2.94% today with a 69.76-point swing, signaling fragile positioning into the release. 2 hours ago

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With SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) up 501.41% year-to-date and shares at $1,401.47, the setup is loaded.

Bull Case Datacenter revenue grew 645% YoY last quarter, with guidance calling for $7.75B–$8.25B in Q4 revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $30.00–$33.00. Gross margin expanded to 78.4%, aided by BiCS8 ramp and NBM contracts providing visibility. Polymarket assigns a 94.6% probability of a beat, with 18 Buy ratings. Bear Case Valuation is stretched: market cap near $211.42 billion, P/E of 44. NAND pricing is cyclical; peak margins may not persist. Shares already dropped 18.19% over the past month, signaling fragile positioning. Reddit sentiment swung from 78 to 18 in days, reflecting retail whiplash. 2 hours ago

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With SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) reporting after the close and Polymarket odds now at 94.6% for a beat, here’s what to listen for on the call.

Top 5 Analyst Questions How many additional NBM contracts were signed, and can bit coverage exceed 50% of FY27? Is Datacenter growth still tracking mid-70s% for calendar 2026? QLC Stargate ramp progress and hyperscaler qualifications? Pace of the $6 billion buyback? HBF system timing into early-to-mid 2027? Key Topics & Buzzwords Listen for “inflection point,” “structurally higher earnings power,” BiCS8, KV cache, and disciplined supply. Watch fiscal 2027 mix commentary and Kioxia JV cadence. Red Flags Consumer weakness worsening beyond -10% sequential. Guidance merely meeting the $30.00 to $33.00 EPS range. Any softening in NAND pricing language. 2 hours ago

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SanDisk reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the closing bell, with Wall Street expecting adjusted earnings of $34.52 per share on $8.39 billion in revenue.

The biggest questions surround NAND pricing, the company’s growing exposure to data centers, and execution on its NBM contracts. SanDisk’s Data Center revenue soared 645% year over year last quarter, placing the AI memory buildout at the center of tonight’s report.

Prediction-market traders are highly confident, with Polymarket assigning a 98.5% probability that SanDisk beats earnings expectations again.

A strong beat accompanied by a richer fiscal 2027 product mix and additional NBM contracts would strengthen the case that SanDisk has entered an era of structurally higher earnings power. However, guidance merely in-line with expectations could trigger multiple compression following the stock’s extraordinary run.

SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) reports Q4 FY2026 results today after the bell at 4:05 PM ET. Shares sit at $1,419.96 after a 501.41% year-to-date run, making tonight’s earnings report the highest-stakes report since the Western Digital separation.

Momentum Meets Execution Risk Q3 FY26 marked what CEO David Goeckeler called “a fundamental inflection point.” Revenue landed at $5.95 billion, up 251% YoY, while non-GAAP EPS of $23.41 beat consensus by 59.67%.

Gross margin expanded to 78.4% from 22.5% a year earlier, powered by NAND pricing and a Datacenter mix shift. Free cash flow hit $2.99 billion, and the company retired $650 million in debt to reach a zero long-term debt balance sheet. However, shares are down 18.19% over the past month, signaling the bar has moved.

Consensus Estimates Metric Q4 FY26 Estimate Company Guide Revenue $8.39B $7.75B to $8.25B EPS (Non-GAAP) $34.52 $30.00 to $33.00 Non-GAAP Gross Margin n/a 79.0% to 81.0% The Street already sits above management’s own top-line and bottom-line ranges. Consensus embeds continued Datacenter mix leverage and further NAND ASP expansion, leaving little room for in-line results to satisfy investors.

What I’m Watching: Datacenter Mix, NBM Commitments, and Margin Cadence Tonight, I’ll be watching to see whether Datacenter sustains its 233% sequential pace, because that segment now anchors the company’s structural earnings-power thesis. Analysts will also focus on how many of the five signed NBM agreements translate into revenue linearity and whether management adds more customers under firm financial commitments.

Gross margin cadence matters next. Guidance calls for 79.0% to 81.0%, and I want commentary on how pricing holds into FY27 given the structural NAND shortage narrative through 2028. Consumer weakness is worth tracking as well after a 10% sequential decline last quarter.

Management tone on Kioxia, BiCS8 ramp, and share repurchase pacing will shape the post-report reaction. Reddit sentiment flipped bullish only recently, with the “SNDK Holders – we’re so back!!” post gaining traction, while options traders lean neutral with a 0.79 put/call ratio.

Earnings History Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 1-Week Move 30-Day Move Q3 FY26 +59.67% +5.8% +31.62% +54.3% Q2 FY26 +74.97% +15.44% +3.77% +3.96% Q1 FY26 +37.08% +11.89% +6.13% -2.76% Q4 FY25 +866.67% +2.2% +4.11% +110.98% On average, shares moved +11.24% in the week following earnings over the past year.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SanDisk didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

According to Benzinga Pro data, the implied earnings move stands near 16% in either direction.

From Tuesday’s $1,427 close, that translates into a potential move toward roughly $1,655 on the upside or $1,199 on the downside.

That’s about a $228 swing either way.

Historical track records show that SanDisk stock has almost always reacted positively to earnings, but the moves have been far smaller than what options are pricing in for Q4.

Wall Street Expects An Extraordinary Earnings ExplosionI had to look twice at Wall Street’s expectations for SanDisk’s quarter.

Analysts expect earnings of $34.96 per share, compared with just $0.29 in the same quarter last year.

That would represent an increase of nearly 120 times, or roughly 11,955%.

Revenue is expected at $8.48 billion, versus roughly $1.9 billion a year earlier. That would represent growth of about 346%, or more than four times last year’s level.

Those numbers capture just how dramatically the NAND memory cycle has tightened in recent months.

But they also create an unusual earnings setup.

A huge beat may no longer be enough to surprise investors.

SanDisk Earnings May Come Down To One NumberTessara Research sees gross margin, rather than revenue, as the key variable separating a routine beat from another major upside surprise.

SanDisk guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, already below Wall Street’s expectations.

Its non-GAAP gross-margin outlook was 79%–81%.

Tessara Research expects gross margin to exceed the 81% upper end of that range, assigning a 75% probability to that outcome. Its central case sees margin reaching roughly 84%.

SanDisk already demonstrated last quarter how quickly NAND pricing can flow through the income statement.

Fiscal third-quarter gross margin reached 78.4% after management had initially guided to just 65%–67%.

The research firm said management previously indicated that it "pays to be a bit conservative" in a rapidly changing market.

There is another clue.

Kioxia, which jointly operates Japanese NAND manufacturing facilities with SanDisk, reported roughly 80% gross margin for the same April-to-June period as blended prices rose about 70%, according to Tessara.

If SanDisk captured enough of that pricing improvement, margins could again outrun its own guidance.

History Favors Bulls, But Nothing Close to What Options Traders Are Pricing TodaySanDisk shares rose the day after earnings in five of the past six quarters, an 83% positive hit rate. The average one-day move was 5.76%, with a median gain of 5.84%.

The largest move was a 15.31% rally in November 2025. The only negative reaction was a 4.58% decline in August 2025.

Interestingly, bigger earnings beats haven’t always produced bigger stock moves.

In May, SanDisk reported earnings of $23.41 per share versus $14.62 expected, a 60.1% beat. Shares rose 8.25% the following session.

In January, earnings beat estimates by 71.4%, while the stock gained 6.85%. The most extreme surprise came last August, when earnings of $0.29 crushed the $0.05 estimate by more than 500% — yet shares fell 4.58%.

That makes Wednesday’s setup unusual.

The 16% implied move is nearly three times SanDisk’s average post-earnings reaction and would exceed every one-day earnings move in the company’s recent history.

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SanDisk stock NASDAQ:SNDK was priced for a move of more than $200 after Wednesday’s earnings, reflecting high uncertainty around a company with a bullish underlying story.

Options expiring on Friday implied a swing of about $212.30, or 14.9%, in either direction, placing the stock between roughly $1,211 and $1,635.

The signal is not a forecast of gains or losses, but shows traders expect a large surprise as NAND prices rise and data-centre customers compete for storage capacity.

After a 500% rally this year, another strong quarter may no longer be enough.

Investors want proof that pricing power and long-term contracts can make this memory cycle more durable than previous booms.

SanDisk closed 10.8% higher at $1,427.62 on Tuesday before slipping 1.1% to $1,412.14 by 4.38 AM ET on Wednesday.

The shares remained 39% below their June high, highlighting the extreme volatility surrounding the AI-memory trade.

The latest options estimate is above the roughly 10.3% average predicted move recorded across previous earnings events.

Different calculations have produced larger or smaller figures because option prices, expiration dates and methods change, but each points to elevated risk.

Options do not indicate direction. They measure the size of the reaction traders are paying to protect against.

That distinction matters after SanDisk’s 47% July decline, its worst month since returning to public markets.

The correction reduced some valuation pressure, but Tuesday’s rebound showed that enthusiasm can return as quickly as it disappears.

SanDisk will report fiscal fourth-quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell and hold its conference call at 4.30 PM ET.

Visible Alpha expects revenue of $8.7 billion and adjusted earnings of $35.45 a share. Both sit above SanDisk’s guidance for revenue between $7.8 billion and $8.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $30 to $33.

That gap means reaching management’s forecast may still disappoint.

Morgan Stanley analysts described demand for SanDisk hardware as “unequivocally strong and durable.”

Some data-centre customers are reportedly concerned that demand could exceed supply for another two years.

Investors will scrutinise NAND selling prices, enterprise solid-state-drive growth, bit shipments, manufacturing costs and fiscal 2027 guidance.

All four analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate the stock Buy, with an average target of about $2,250, leaving little room for a cautious outlook.

Also read- Top DRAM ETF stocks to watch this week: Western Digital, SanDisk, Micron

The central question is whether SanDisk’s new business model agreements can reduce the boom-and-bust volatility historically associated with memory.

Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani estimates that five agreements represent about $62 billion of minimum committed revenue, supported by more than $11 billion of guarantees and prepayments.

He believes investors are underestimating the durability of earnings and free cash flow and maintains a $3,100 target.

The contracts provide greater visibility, but investors need details on pricing, volumes, customer obligations and whether guaranteed demand limits SanDisk’s ability to benefit from future price increases.

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers called the earnings setup “tactically positive”, according to TipRanks, while retaining a Hold rating and raising his target to $1,620.

He expects attention to centre on the agreements, enterprise SSD momentum, the Stargate ramp and SanDisk’s effort to reach gross margins in the mid-80% range.

Key Takeaways Sandisk expects fiscal Q4 revenues of $7.75B-$8.25B and non-GAAP EPS of $30-$33.AI infrastructure growth is supporting enterprise SSD demand, a richer product mix and higher shipments.Multiyear agreements aim to improve revenue visibility, pricing stability and reduce NAND cyclicality. Sandisk (SNDK - Free Report) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 5.

For the to-be-reported quarter, SNDK expects revenues between $7.750 billion and $8.25 billion, driven by both higher bit shipments and improved pricing.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $8.3 billion, suggesting 336.64% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Sandisk expects non-GAAP earnings between $30 and $33 per share. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $34.24 per share, up 2.8% over the past 30 days. SNDK reported earnings of 29 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Consensus Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

SNDK’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, with the average being 380.92%. 
 

Let us see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Key Factors to Note Ahead of SNDK’s Q4 ResultsSandisk's fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results are expected to have benefited from continued strength in the Data Center business, supported by surging enterprise SSD demand and favorable NAND pricing. Enterprise SSD momentum is likely to have remained strong as hyperscale customers expanded AI infrastructure, while the company began recognizing revenue from its QLC-based Stargate storage platform, complementing its successful TLC SSD portfolio.

AI-driven inference workloads are expected to have remained a key growth catalyst. Technologies such as KV cache, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and increasingly agentic AI require high-capacity, low-latency NAND flash, making enterprise SSDs an essential part of next-generation AI infrastructure. As hyperscalers optimized inference architectures, demand for scalable NAND storage continued to strengthen, supporting higher enterprise SSD shipments and a richer product mix during the to-be-reported quarter.

The Edge segment is also expected to have contributed positively, supported by increasing storage content in premium smartphones and AI PCs. Sandisk highlighted that on-device AI capabilities are driving higher storage requirements and greater adoption of high-performance NAND solutions. Continued demand from PCs, smartphones, automotive and IoT markets likely to have supported revenue growth while enabling Sandisk to prioritize higher-value customer engagements.

Sandisk Shares Outperform Sector & PeersSandisk shares have jumped 411.7% year to date (YTD), outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s appreciation of 11.7%. The company has outperformed its storage peers, including Western Digital (WDC - Free Report) , Seagate (STX - Free Report) and Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) , over the same time frame, shares of which have returned 216.2%, 210.9% and 188.3%, respectively.

SNDK Stock’s Price Performance    
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Sandisk shares are trading at a premium, as suggested by a Value Score of D. In terms of the forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S), Sandisk is trading at 3.90X, higher than the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry’s 3.31X and Micron’s 3.89X. However, SNDK shares are trading at a lower multiple compared with Western Digital’s 10.09X and Seagate’s 9.99X.

SNDK Stock’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Strong AI Demand to Aid SNDK’s ProspectsSandisk’s biggest long-term catalyst is the rapid expansion of AI inference workloads. The company expects inference, reasoning models, agentic AI, KV Cache and RAG applications to require significantly more high-performance NAND storage. As hyperscalers build AI infrastructure, enterprise SSD demand is expected to remain a major growth driver for years.

Sandisk has significantly strengthened its enterprise SSD business with industry-leading TLC SSDs while expanding into high-capacity QLC solutions through its Stargate platform. The company expects both product families to play complementary roles in AI data centers, increasing SNDK’s exposure to its fastest-growing end market.

Sandisk continues to benefit from rising storage requirements in AI PCs, premium smartphones, automotive systems, robotics and IoT devices. The company believes NAND is becoming increasingly important across virtually every major technology platform, providing diversified long-term demand drivers beyond the data center. Sandisk believes its advanced NAND architecture enables industry-leading performance while allowing mid-to-high-teens annual bit growth through technology migrations rather than expensive greenfield capacity additions.

The company’s new business models (NBMs) are expected to reduce the historical cyclicality of the NAND industry. These multiyear agreements provide committed demand, supply assurance, financial guarantees and a combination of fixed and variable pricing, giving Sandisk greater revenue visibility, pricing stability and more durable margins over several years. The company expects the proportion of contracted business to increase over time.

ConclusionSandisk appears well positioned ahead of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, supported by robust AI-driven enterprise SSD demand, favorable NAND pricing and expanding adoption of its TLC and QLC storage solutions. The company’s growing exposure to AI infrastructure, disciplined supply strategy and multiyear customer agreements are enhancing revenue visibility and reducing business cyclicality. While its premium valuation may limit near-term upside, sustained momentum in data-center storage and diversified demand across AI PCs, smartphones and automotive markets reinforce Sandisk's long-term growth prospects, making the upcoming earnings release an important catalyst for the stock.

Sandisk currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Growth Score of A, a favorable combination that offers a strong investment opportunity, per the Zacks Proprietary methodology. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Sandisk (SNDK -10.87%) has been one of the hottest growth stocks of the year (up 579%), but it's down by more than 31% from its June 2026 all-time high. Where does that leave investors heading into Sandisk's Aug. 5 earnings report?

There are some hints that Sandisk will deliver blockbuster results when it releases its report. These are the green flags investors should keep in mind as Aug. 5 draws closer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Micron usually foreshadows Sandisk's earnings Memory chips are gaining substantial traction, and Micron Technology (MU -7.24%) proved that was the case when it reported its fiscal 2026 third-quarter results. These results are a pretty big deal for Sandisk investors since the company has been growing faster than Micron in recent quarters.

Micron more than quadrupled its revenue year over year, crushing its guidance in the process. The memory chipmaker also delivered more than 70% sequential growth. Guidance only suggested $33.5 billion in revenue at the midpoint, which would have been approximately a 40% sequential improvement.

With this important context, let's take a closer look at Sandisk's results for the fiscal 2026 third quarter, which ended April 3. Revenue almost doubled sequentially, outpacing the growth rate Micron exhibited in its groundbreaking quarter. For Q3, Sandisk implied $4.6 billion in revenue at the midpoint of guidance and ended up reporting $5.95 billion.

Sandisk guided for $8 billion in revenue at the midpoint of its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results. Recent history and Micron's results suggest that Sandisk will smash guidance. Micron's $41.5 billion in revenue shocked the most ardent bulls, and the company then guided for $50 billion in the following quarter.

If Sandisk continues to follow the pattern of crushing guidance, its recent dip looks like a compelling buying opportunity.

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The memory chip boom isn't fading Memory chips are cyclical, and supply shortages can quickly turn into inventory gluts. That has been the narrative for multiple decades, and it may explain why memory chipmakers saw their share prices drop just after Micron reported earnings, but the AI build-out is quite exceptional.

Companies with real revenue and rising AI capacity needs are fueling the boom, which makes the dot-com comparison illegitimate. Furthermore, Micron announced it was entering multiyear strategic agreements with customers. This multiyear setup makes the company less susceptible to the bust part of the memory chip cycle. Competitors like Sandisk are likely to follow suit, which can make the current dip attractive.

Moreover, Alphabet boosted its capital expenditures target yet again. The company intends to spend up to $205 billion on capital expenditures this year, and some of that money will have to go to memory chips like the ones Sandisk creates.

These are long-term tailwinds that should continue to propel Sandisk stock to new highs. Expect a beat-and-raise type of quarter. It's just a matter of how much Sandisk beats its guidance for Q4 and what the company tells investors about its upcoming fiscal 2027.