SM Energy (SM - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 5, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis independent oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.93 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +28.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $2.01 billion, up 153.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 19.02% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for SM Energy?For SM Energy, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.44%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that SM Energy will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that SM Energy would post earnings of $1.29 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.55, delivering a surprise of +20.16%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SM Energy appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAnother stock from the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $5.1 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +119.8%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $7.95 billion, up 45.2% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for EOG Resources has been revised 6.3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.06%.
This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that EOG Resources will beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $30.30 in the latest trading session, marking a -8.71% move from the prior day. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.02%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.51%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.18%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the independent oil and gas company had gained 26.01% outpaced the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 7.75% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.77%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of SM Energy in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on August 5, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $1.93, marking a 28.67% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $2.01 billion, indicating a 153.16% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
SM's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $6.95 per share and revenue of $7.28 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +28.23% and +130.86%, respectively.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for SM Energy. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 4.77% lower. SM Energy is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
From a valuation perspective, SM Energy is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 4.77. This denotes a discount relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 10.23.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 222, placing it within the bottom 10% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider SM Energy?Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. SM Energy (SM - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.94 a share, just nine days from its upcoming earnings release on August 5, 2026.
SM has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.44%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.94 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93. SM Energy is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SM is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Williams Companies, Inc. (The) (WMB - Free Report) .
Williams Companies, Inc. (The), which is readying to report earnings on August 3, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.56 a share, and WMB is seven days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Williams Companies, Inc. (The) is $0.52, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +7.95%.
SM and WMB's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned +15.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has gained 6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.93 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +28.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -10.1%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $7.13 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +31.6%. This estimate has changed -2.4% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.55 indicates a change of +5.9% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -6.8%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, SM Energy is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $2.04 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +157.4%. For the current and next fiscal years, $7.44 billion and $7.52 billion estimates indicate +136% and +1.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $1.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +75.1%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.96%. The EPS surprise was +20.16%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
SM Energy (SM) merger integration has exceeded expectations, with increased synergy targets and operational outperformance in Q1. Despite strong capital efficiency and a raised dividend, SM carries the highest leverage among top-10 US independents, impacting valuation and FCF sensitivity. SM trades at a deep earnings discount to peers, but high debt keeps its EV/EBITDA elevated; FCF yield stands at 8.2%.
Pre-Market Stock Futures: Futures are trading higher after a nice bounce-back day for Wall Street, as a tepid June consumer price index report, combined with the President dropping the big Strait of Hormuz tolls, brought buyers back to the table. When the final bell rang, all of the major indices finished the day higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the charge, closing at 26,107, up 0.90%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index finished the session at 2,965, up 0.43%. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday trading at 7,543, up 0.38%, while the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small 0.02% gain at 52,508 to finish on the plus side. Super-strong earnings from the large money-center banks and white-glove financials helped block International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM | IBM Price Prediction) on Tuesday, as the legacy tech giant wiped out over $50 billion in market value after issuing a preliminary revenue warning for the second quarter. This historic single-day drop was the worst for Big Blue since 1987.
Treasury Bonds: What a difference a day makes. After sellers hammered, the treasury complex and yields rose across the curve to start the week. The exact opposite happened on Tuesday, after the calm June consumer price index report cooled fears of rate hikes, bringing back buyers’ search for some juice in Treasury yields. The 30-year bond closed the day flat at 5.10%, while yields on all other maturities dropped, except for the 1- and 3-month T-bills, which were unchanged. The 10-year note was last seen at 4.59%.
Oil and Gas: Despite the President scrapping the toll for the Starit of Hormuz midday, prices for the major oil benchmarks moved higher on Tuesday. While not the massive move we saw on Monday, concerns over a long-running dispute with Iran continue to weigh on oil prices. Brent Crude closed the day at $85.52, up 2.67%, while West Texas Intermediate was last seen at $79.96, up 2.33%. Natural gas finished the day at $2.92, up 0.79%.
Gold: The precious metals also had a mixed bounce-back day yesterday, as bonds traded lower on the positive CPI print, and prices recovered from a 2-week low amid a weaker dollar. Gold closed the session at $4,013, up over 2%, while Silver ended the session lower at $57.86, the lowest close in several months.
Crypto: Cryptocurrency traded higher on Tuesday, rebounding from earlier losses after the cooler-than-expected June U.S. CPI print sparked a broad market rally. Bitcoin climbed 3.5%, Ethereum jumped nearly 6%, and XRP advanced 5%. This positive price action came despite institutional Bitcoin ETF outflows of over $425 million and lingering geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. At 8 AM EDT, Bitcoin was trading at $64,648, while Ethereum was trading at $1,882.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports every day to identify fresh investment ideas for investors and traders alike. These daily analyst notes include recommendations on stocks to buy, sell, or avoid, as well as new coverage initiations. Important reminder: No single analyst report should ever be the sole basis for buying or selling a stock.
Here are some of the top Wall Street analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen on Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
Upgrades: AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE: AMC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Texas Capital, with a $3 target price. CAVA Group (NYSE: CAVA) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, which bumped the price target to $90 from $86. CNX Resources (NYSE: CNX) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Truist Financial, with a $35 target price. Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim, which has a $200 target price for the shares. Nextpower (NASDAQ: NXT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim, with a $125 target price. Downgrades: Allstate (NYSE: ALL) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, which nudged the target price for the insurance giant to $261 from $255. Check Point Software Technologies (NASDAQ: CHKP) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James, without a price target. International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer, without a target price. TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, which slashed the target price for the stock to $1,345 from $1,680. Travelers Companies (NYSE: TRV) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, which dropped the target price for the shares to $290 from $333. Initiations: Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) was initiated with a Neutral rating at BTG Pactual, which has a $260 target price for the aerospace giant.
FedEx (NYSE: FDX) was started with an Outperform rating at Citizens, which has a $375 target price. GXO Logistics (NYSE: GXO) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Citizens, with an $80 target price. SM Energy (NYSE: SM) was initiated with a Buy rating at UBS, which has set a $36 target price for the shares. United Parcel Services (NYSE: UPS) was started with a Market Perform rating at Citizens, without a target price. Meet America's Newest $1b Unicorn (Sponsor) A US startup just passed a $1 billion private valuation, joining billion-dollar private companies like OpenAI and ByteDance. Unlike those other unicorns, you can invest in EnergyX right now; but only until July 16.
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In the latest trading session, SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $28.34, marking a -2.65% move from the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.81%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.27%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.3%.
Shares of the independent oil and gas company have depreciated by 11.33% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 3.61%, and the S&P 500's gain of 1.13%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of SM Energy in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on August 5, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $1.88, marking a 25.33% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $2.04 billion, up 157.41% from the year-ago period.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $7.1 per share and a revenue of $7.44 billion, representing changes of +31% and +136.03%, respectively, from the prior year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for SM Energy. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 2.79% lower. At present, SM Energy boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
With respect to valuation, SM Energy is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 4.1. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 9.61 for its industry.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 177, which puts it in the bottom 29% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
, /PRNewswire/ -- SM Energy Company (the "Company" or "SM") (NYSE: SM) today announced that it plans to release second quarter 2026 financial and operating results after market close on August 5, 2026. The Company will hold a conference call to discuss results on August 6, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. MT (10:00 a.m. ET).
To join the live conference call, register at: SM Energy 2Q 2026 Earnings Call Registration. Dial-in for domestic toll-free/international is 877-407-6050 / +1 201-689-8022.
To access the live webcast and view the related earnings presentation, visit the Company's website at www.sm-energy.com/investors. The replay will also be available on the Company's website under the "Investor Relations" section.
About SM Energy Company
SM is a premier, scaled operator of top-tier oil and gas assets across four leading U.S. shale basins: the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, South Texas, and Uinta Basin. SM is focused on operational excellence, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering growing returns to stockholders. SM routinely posts important information about the Company on its website. For more information, visit www.sm-energy.com.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned -16.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.9% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has lost 9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.87 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +24.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The consensus earnings estimate of $7.3 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +34.7%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.1 indicates a change of +11% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for SM Energy.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate of $2.05 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +158.2%. The $7.56 billion and $7.67 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +139.6% and +1.5%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $1.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +75.1%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.96%. The EPS surprise was +20.16%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about SM Energy (SM - Free Report) .
SM Energy currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.94, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 16 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.94 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 16 recommendations that derive the current ABR, eight are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 50% and 6.3% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for SM
Check price target & stock forecast for SM Energy here>>>
While the ABR calls for buying SM Energy, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Is SM Worth Investing In?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for SM Energy, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $7.3.
Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for SM Energy. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for SM Energy.
Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering SM Energy (SM - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry.
This independent oil and gas company has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 16.93%.
For the last reported quarter, SM Energy came out with earnings of $1.55 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 per share, representing a surprise of 20.16%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.73 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.83 per share, delivering a surprise of 13.70%.
Price and EPS Surprise
For SM Energy, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
SM Energy currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.43%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner.
With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $25.73 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.42% move from the prior day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.22% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.03%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.66%.
Heading into today, shares of the independent oil and gas company had lost 20.77% over the past month, lagging the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 4.76% and the S&P 500's loss of 1.21%.
The upcoming earnings release of SM Energy will be of great interest to investors. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $1.87, indicating a 24.67% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $2.05 billion, indicating a 158.24% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $7.3 per share and a revenue of $7.56 billion, signifying shifts of +34.69% and +139.56%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for SM Energy. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.11% higher within the past month. SM Energy is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Digging into valuation, SM Energy currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 3.58. This expresses a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 9.03 of its industry.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 106, putting it in the top 44% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
SM Energy is rated Strong Buy, trading at a 70% sector discount despite robust asset growth and operational improvements. Recent mergers and acquisitions, notably Civitas and Uinta Basin, have expanded SM's asset base to 800,000 net acres, boosting oil and NGL output. Derivative losses, primarily inherited from Civitas, temporarily cap crude upside but are expected to reverse by 2027, unlocking further value.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $26.49 in the latest trading session, marking a -3.36% move from the prior day. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.1%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.35%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.43%.
Shares of the independent oil and gas company witnessed a loss of 13.78% over the previous month, trailing the performance of the Oils-Energy sector with its loss of 7.58%, and the S&P 500's loss of 1.34%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of SM Energy in its upcoming release. On that day, SM Energy is projected to report earnings of $1.87 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 24.67%. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $2.05 billion, indicating a 158.24% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $7.3 per share and a revenue of $7.56 billion, demonstrating changes of +34.69% and +139.56%, respectively, from the preceding year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for SM Energy. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 1.11% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Currently, SM Energy is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Valuation is also important, so investors should note that SM Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 3.75 right now. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 9.43.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 107, positioning it in the top 44% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Save up to 43% on summer favorites to fuel your Independence Day festivities, June 26 through July 3, 2026
, /PRNewswire/ -- As Americans prepare to celebrate 250 years of independence, Natural Grocers®, the nation's largest family-operated natural and organic grocery retailer, is helping customers gather, grill and save with its Even More AffordableSM Fourth of July Deals. From June 26 through July 3, {N}power® members can enjoy savings of up to 43% on picnic-ready favorites.[i] To help inspire holiday menus, Natural Grocers is also featuring a collection of festive, kitchen-tested recipes, from crowd-pleasing appetizers and sides to refreshing summer beverages, making it easier to serve wholesome food, gather with family and friends, and create memorable holiday moments.
Celebrate America's 250th birthday with Fourth of July deals from Natural Grocers®! From June 26 through July 3, {N}power® members can save up to 43% on picnic-ready favorites, grill essentials, snacks and summer beverages. Plus, discover festive recipes, exclusive member perks and more ways to save all season long. June 26–July 3: Whether you're firing up the grill, packing a picnic basket or heading out for a long holiday weekend, Natural Grocers has summer essentials at exceptional values. From backyard barbecues and festive gatherings to outdoor adventures, {N}power members can find great deals on seasonal staples, crowd-pleasing snacks and refreshing warm-weather favorites.
Build the ultimate Fourth of July cookout with savings on Thousand HillsTM 80/20 Grass-Fed Ground Beef ($7.99/16 oz) and Pederson's Natural FarmsTM Old-World Pork Kielbasa ($5.79/14 oz). Crunch into summer with Zack's Mighty® Organic Tortilla Chips ($3.25/7.5 oz). Certified organic, gluten-free and non-GMO, each batch of Zack's is crafted with 100% organic avocado oil and regenerative corn. Spice up your spread with Frontera® Salsas ($3.25/16 oz). Made in small batches with authentic chiles like jalapeño, habanero, and guajillo, these flavorful salsas bring bold taste and just the right amount of heat to your backyard barbecue. Cool off with Yachak Organic Yerba Mate Energy Drinks ($18.49/12 pk or $1.79 each). Crafted with organic yerba mate, a natural source of caffeine, these refreshing drinks are the perfect companion for long summer days and Fourth of July festivities. MORE {N}POWER MEMBER PERKS
Members of {N}power, Natural Grocers' free member rewards program, will have access to additional rewards and savings including:
June 26–July 3: {N}power members will enjoy 10% off their entire alcohol purchase, at select stores where alcohol is sold.[ii] June 26–July 3: $5 off $25 on organic produce for all registered {N}power members (click to load from app or associated membership email, limit one per transaction).[iii] Summer Natural Grocers good4u® Meal Deals: {N}power members can feed up to four people for under $15 with a Natural Grocers good4u Grilled Chicken and Veggies Meal Deal, featuring Mary's® Non-GMO Whole Chicken and 100% certified organic yellow squash, zucchini and red onions.[iv] Visit naturalgrocers.com/mealdeals for current meal deal offerings, ending September 30. July 1–31: {N}power members can take part in the coolest "Spend and Win" sweepstakes of the year: {N}power members who spend $50 or more will get an automatic entry to win a Natural Grocers® branded cooler bag and drinks (a $50 value/one winner per store). One grand prize winner will win a trip to Glacier National Park (a $2,500 value).[v] Not an {N}power member? Not a problem! Signing up is quick, easy and free. Customers who join will receive a $2 reward off their next purchase, plus over $12 in coupons, the first month: www.naturalgrocers.com/npower.[vi]
FRESH, FLAVORFUL FOURTH OF JULY RECIPES
From Grilled Watermelon with savory toppings to refreshing mocktails and patriotic desserts, we have everything you need to make your Independence Day celebration unforgettable. Explore healthy and flavorful recipes for a star-spangled feast!
Beverages Starters Summer Salads Grill Classics Tasty Sides Sweet Treats MORE SUMMER SAVINGS WITH NATURAL GROCERS
Through July 25, {N}power members can enjoy additional summer savings, throughout the store, with Natural Grocers' good4u Health Hotline® sales.[vii] Looking ahead, all customers are invited to the company's third annual Summer Savings Event, July 16–18 at all Natural Grocers locations. During the three-day celebration, the first 100 customers at each store on July 16 will receive a mystery discount coupon, shoppers can enjoy free hydration samples on July 17 (while supplies last), and families can participate in the popular Splash Buddy Scavenger Hunt on July 18.[viii] {N}power members will also have access to exclusive discounts on select items throughout the event.[ix] Learn more in stores or visit naturalgrocers.com.
FOLLOW, DOWNLOAD & SUBSCRIBE
Stay connected with Natural Grocers on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube for the latest and greatest. Customers can also:
Download the Natural Grocers App to unlock access to {N}power rewards, digital coupons and more. Subscribe to the good4u Health Hotline for more recipes, educational articles and sale highlights. Click here for a complimentary media kit from Natural Grocers. Contact [email protected] for all media inquiries. ABOUT NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE
Founded in 1955, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is an expanding specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries, body care products and dietary supplements. The grocery products sold by Natural Grocers must meet strict quality guidelines and may not contain artificial flavors, preservatives or sweeteners (as defined by its standards), synthetic colors or partially hydrogenated or hydrogenated oils. The Company sells only USDA-certified organic produce and exclusively pasture-raised, non-confinement dairy products and free-range eggs. Natural Grocers' flexible smaller-store format allows it to offer affordable prices in a shopper-friendly, clean and convenient retail environment. The Company also provides extensive free science-based Nutrition Education programs to help customers and Crew make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers is committed to its Five Founding Principles—including its "Commitment to Community" and "Commitment to Crew." In fiscal year 2025, the Company invested more than $16 million in incremental compensation and discretionary payments for Crew. Headquartered in Lakewood, CO, Natural Grocers has 172 stores in 22 states. Visit naturalgrocers.com for more information and store locations.
[i]
Offers are available only to {N}power members from 6/26/2026 through 7/3/2026 and are redeemable only for in-store customer purchases at participating stores and cannot be combined with other offers. Quantity limited to stock on hand; no rain checks. Pricing excludes taxes and is subject to change without notice. We reserve the right to correct errors. Void where prohibited by law.
[ii]
Must be 21 or older for alcohol purchases. Alcohol products not offered at all store locations. See store for details. Please drink responsibly. Quantity limited to stock on hand; no rainchecks. Pricing excludes taxes and is subject to change without notice. This offer has been pre-loaded to {N}power accounts. Natural Grocers reserves the right to correct errors. Void where prohibited by law. {N}power offers available only to registered members and are subject to program terms and conditions available at www.naturalgrocers.com/npower.
[iii]
Offer only available to registered {N}power members, 6/26/2026 through 7/3/2026. Must present phone number associated with member account at checkout to accumulate towards $25 requirement in one transaction. Customers must click-to-load offer before shopping. $5 discount will be applied to the product's regular, non-discounted price. Valid for in-store customer purchases only; be sure to present phone number at checkout to redeem discount.
[iv]
This offer is available only to registered {N}power members. Must enter phone number associated with {N}power account at checkout to redeem. This offer ends September 30, 2026 and is redeemable only for in-store purchases at participating Natural Grocers stores. Pricing subject to change without notice. Quantity limited to stock on hand; no rain checks. Natural Grocers reserves the right to correct errors.
[v]
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY. A PURCHASE WILL NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Open only to legal residents, 18 years or older, of the following states: AZ, AR, CO, ID, IA, KS, LA, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NM, ND, OK, OR, SD, TX, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Must be an {N}power member to enter. Void where prohibited by law. Sweepstakes starts on 7/1/2026 and ends on 7/31/2026. Winner will receive a $50 gift card, equal to approximately the value of one cooler bag and drinks. Grand prize winner will receive a trip to Glacier National Park or $2,500 in cash, at sponsor's sole discretion. For Official Rules and complete details, visit: www.naturalgrocers.com/sweepstakes. Sponsor: Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc.
[vi]
Coupons will be emailed to email address provided upon signup and must be loaded from the email or the Natural Grocers mobile app. $2 offer will be autoloaded to {N}power account. {N}power offers available to registered members and are subject to program terms and conditions available at www.naturalgrocers.com/terms. See naturalgrocers.com/privacy for our Privacy Policy.
[vii]
Unless otherwise noted, offers are available only from 6/26/26 to 7/25/26 and are redeemable only for in-store customer purchases at participating stores. Quantity limited to stock on hand, no rainchecks. Unless otherwise noted, all discounts are on regular prices, cannot be redeemed for store credit or cash, and cannot be combined with other offers. Pricing excludes taxes and is subject to change without notice. {N}power® offers are available only to registered members and are subject to program terms and conditions available at www.naturalgrocers.com/npower.
[viii]
NO PURCHASE OR PAYMENT NECESSARY. A PURCHASE OR PAYMENT WILL NOT INCREASE CHANCES OF WINNING. Contest starts on 7/18/2026 at 11:00 a.m. local time, and ends when all prizes have been awarded, or at the close of business on 7/18/26, whichever is first to occur. Thirty total splash buddies will be awarded. Of these, nine will include a card redeemable in store for a $10 Natural Grocers Gift Card, and one will include a card redeemable in store for a $50 Natural Grocers Git Card. Such redemptions must occur on 7/18/2026. Children under age 18 are permitted to assist in locating a prize, but only eligible entrants, 18 years of age or older, are eligible to receive a prize. Limit one prize per winner. Crew and members of their households are not eligible. Void where prohibited by law. For Official Rules and complete details, visit: www.naturalgrocers.com/sweepstakes. Sponsor: Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers
[ix]
Offers are available only to {N}power members from 7/16/2026 through 7/18/2026 and are redeemable only for in-store customer purchases at participating stores and cannot be combined with other offers. Quantity limited to stock on hand; no rain checks. Pricing excludes taxes and is subject to change without notice. We reserve the right to correct errors. Void where prohibited by law.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned -18.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.1% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has lost 8.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.87 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +24.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.1%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.3 points to a change of +34.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +1.1%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.1 indicates a change of +11% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.4%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, SM Energy is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $2.05 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +158.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $7.56 billion and $7.67 billion estimates indicate +139.6% and +1.5% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $1.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +75.1%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.96%. The EPS surprise was +20.16%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - June 23, 2026) - Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. (TSXV: SM) (OTCQX: SMDRF) ("Sierra Madre" or the "Company") is pleased to to report that all matters were approved at the Company's annual general shareholders meeting (the "Meeting") held on June 23, 2026. At the Meeting the Company's shareholders re-elected all of the Company's current board of directors, Alexander Langer, Gregory Smith, Alejandro Caraveo-Vallina, Jorge Ramiro Monroy and Sean McGrath, as well as approved the appointment of the Company's current auditor, BDO Canada LLP. The Company's shareholders also re-approved the Company's existing 10% rolling stock option plan in accordance with the requirements of the TSX Venture Exchange.
About Sierra Madre
Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. is a precious metals development and exploration company focused on the Guitarra mine in the Temascaltepec mining district, Mexico, and the exploration and development of its Tepic property in Nayarit, Mexico. The Guitarra mine is a permitted underground mine, which includes a 500 tpd processing facility that operated until mid-2018 and restarted commercial production in January 2025.
The +2,600 ha Tepic Project hosts low-sulphidation epithermal gold and silver mineralization with an existing historic resource.
Sierra Madre's management team has played key roles in managing the exploration and development of silver and gold mineral reserves and mineral resources. Sierra Madre's team of professionals has collectively raised over $1 billion for mining companies.
On behalf of the board of directors of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd.,
"Alexander Langer"
Alexander Langer
President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR
FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/302617
In the latest trading session, SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $27.14, marking a -3.38% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.09%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.14%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.91%.
The independent oil and gas company's stock has dropped by 19.31% in the past month, falling short of the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 7.57% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.29%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of SM Energy in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.87, showcasing a 24.67% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $2.05 billion, indicating a 158.24% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $7.3 per share and revenue of $7.56 billion, which would represent changes of +34.69% and +139.56%, respectively, from the prior year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for SM Energy. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 5.44% higher. Right now, SM Energy possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, SM Energy is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 3.85. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 9.26, so one might conclude that SM Energy is trading at a discount comparatively.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 108, putting it in the top 45% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
, /PRNewswire/ -- SM Investments Corporation (SM Investments), the parent company of the SM Group, together with its banking subsidiaries BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) and China Banking Corporation (China Bank), has been included in Fortune magazine's Southeast Asia 500 list for the third consecutive year.
SM Investments ranked second and BDO placed fifth among the 42 Philippine companies on the list, also securing the 28th and 52nd regional rankings, respectively. China Bank, meanwhile, ranked 161 on the regional list.
"We are honored to be part of this year's Fortune Southeast Asia 500 for the third time," said SM Investments President and Chief Executive Officer Frederic C. DyBuncio.
"This recognition reflects the dedication of our people, the trust of our customers, and the valuable contributions of our partners and tenants. It also underscores the important role that businesses play in advancing inclusive growth and strengthening Southeast Asia's economic development and trade landscape."
The Fortune Southeast Asia 500 is an annual ranking of the region's largest companies based on revenue from the previous fiscal year. The list also provides information on each company's revenues, profits, assets, and workforce.
SM Investments has been included in the ranking since its launch in 2024. Published by New York-based Fortune, one of the world's leading business media brands, the Southeast Asia 500 joins the publication's flagship rankings, including the Fortune Global 500, Fortune 500, and Fortune Europe 500.
The continued inclusion of SM Investments and its banking subsidiaries highlights the Group's scale, resilience, and contribution to economic growth in the Philippines and across Southeast Asia. Through its investments in retail, banking, and property, the SM Group remains committed to creating shared value for customers, communities, and stakeholders while supporting sustainable and inclusive development.
About SM Investments Corporation
SM Investments Corporation (SM) is an owner-operator of market-leading businesses in retail, banking, and property, with investments in high-growth opportunities in the Philippine economy. Through its portfolio, SM generates resilient cash flows and reinvests with discipline to compound value over the long term.
Its retail operations are the largest and most diversified in the country. Its property arm, SM Prime Holdings, Inc., is the largest integrated property developer in the Philippines. Its banking interests include BDO Unibank, Inc., the country's largest bank, and China Banking Corporation, one of the country's largest private domestic banks.
For more information, please visit www.sminvestments.com
, /PRNewswire/ -- SM Investments Corporation (SM Investments), the parent company of the SM Group, together with its banking subsidiaries BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) and China Banking Corporation (China Bank), has been included in Fortune magazine's Southeast Asia 500 list for the third consecutive year.
SM Investments ranked second and BDO placed fifth among the 42 Philippine companies on the list, also securing the 28th and 52nd regional rankings, respectively. China Bank, meanwhile, ranked 161 on the regional list.
"We are honored to be part of this year's Fortune Southeast Asia 500 for the third time," said SM Investments President and Chief Executive Officer Frederic C. DyBuncio.
"This recognition reflects the dedication of our people, the trust of our customers, and the valuable contributions of our partners and tenants. It also underscores the important role that businesses play in advancing inclusive growth and strengthening Southeast Asia's economic development and trade landscape."
The Fortune Southeast Asia 500 is an annual ranking of the region's largest companies based on revenue from the previous fiscal year. The list also provides information on each company's revenues, profits, assets, and workforce.
SM Investments has been included in the ranking since its launch in 2024. Published by New York-based Fortune, one of the world's leading business media brands, the Southeast Asia 500 joins the publication's flagship rankings, including the Fortune Global 500, Fortune 500, and Fortune Europe 500.
The continued inclusion of SM Investments and its banking subsidiaries highlights the Group's scale, resilience, and contribution to economic growth in the Philippines and across Southeast Asia. Through its investments in retail, banking, and property, the SM Group remains committed to creating shared value for customers, communities, and stakeholders while supporting sustainable and inclusive development.
About SM Investments Corporation
SM Investments Corporation (SM) is an owner-operator of market-leading businesses in retail, banking, and property, with investments in high-growth opportunities in the Philippine economy. Through its portfolio, SM generates resilient cash flows and reinvests with discipline to compound value over the long term.
Its retail operations are the largest and most diversified in the country. Its property arm, SM Prime Holdings, Inc., is the largest integrated property developer in the Philippines. Its banking interests include BDO Unibank, Inc., the country's largest bank, and China Banking Corporation, one of the country's largest private domestic banks.
For more information, please visit www.sminvestments.com
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A strong stock as of late has been SM Energy (SM - Free Report) . Shares have been marching higher, with the stock up 23.2% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $33.92 in the previous session. SM Energy has gained 77.4% since the start of the year compared to the 32% gain for the Zacks Oils-Energy sector and the 31.6% return for the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, having beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 6, 2026, SM Energy reported EPS of $1.55 versus consensus estimate of $1.29.
For the current fiscal year, SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $7.18 per share on $7.37 in revenues. This represents a 32.47% change in EPS on a 133.58% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $7.83 per share on $7.47 in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 9.15% and 1.33%, respectively.
Valuation MetricsSM Energy may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). The individual style scores for Value, Growth, Momentum and the combined VGM Score run from A through F. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
SM Energy has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are D and C, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 4.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 10.2X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 2.1X versus its peer group's average of 5.3X. This is good enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective, making SM Energy an interesting choice for value investors.
Zacks RankWe also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, SM Energy currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if SM Energy passes the test. Thus, it seems as though SM Energy shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.
How Does SM Stack Up to the Competition?Shares of SM have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) . APA has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of D.
Earnings were strong last quarter. APA Corporation beat our consensus estimate by 36.63%, and for the current fiscal year, APA is expected to post earnings of $5.20 per share on revenue of $8.74 billion.
Shares of APA Corporation have gained 11.6% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 7.72X and a P/CF of 3.89X.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is in the top 6% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for SM and APA, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
Key Takeaways WTI is above $100 per barrel as the Iran-war shock supports a strong oil-price backdrop.SM holds 237,000 net acres in the Permian and 303,000 in the low-cost DJ Basin.SM shares rose 39.7% in a year; EV/EBITDA is 5.94X vs the industry's 12.11X. The price of West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude is trading at more than the $100-per-barrel mark. The high price is being driven by the Iran-war shock. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) in its latest short-term energy outlook projected WTI at $85.68 per barrel this year, higher than $65.40 last year. A highly favorable pricing environment for the commodity is likely to continue supporting SM Energy’s (SM - Free Report) exploration and production activities, which derive a significant proportion of its earnings.
To have a glimpse of its upstream assets, the company has a strong footprint in shale basins in the United States, comprising the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, the DJ Basin and others. The company mentioned that its operations are spread across roughly 237,000 net acres in the Permian and almost 303,000 net acres in the low-cost DJ Basin.
Thus, considering the ongoing high oil prices and footprint in low-cost, high-quality basins, the business outlook of SM Energy seems promising.
Will XOM & COP Also Gain From High Oil Prices?
Like SM, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) will benefit from the ongoing strength in oil prices. Let’s delve a little deeper.
With COP generating a significant proportion of revenues from crude oil, the high price of the commodity is extremely favorable for the leading oil and gas exploration and production company, much like other energy giants such as XOM and SM.
The upstream energy giant also has low-cost drilling opportunities across Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken that could be successfully developed over two decades. Thus, the outlook for ConocoPhillips’ upstream operations looks highly profitable.
To provide a glimpse of ExxonMobil’s upstream assets, the company has a massive footprint in the Permian, the most prolific oil and gas play in the United States, and offshore Guyana. Hence, XOM is also well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing high commodity prices.
SM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of SM have gained 39.7% over the past year, surpassing the industry’s 23.5% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.94X. This is below the broader industry average of 12.11X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SM’s 2026 earnings has seen upward revisions over the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SM currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
SM Energy (NYSE: SM) went under the radar among President Donald Trump’s stock purchases in the first quarter of 2026. However, the oil producer has posted rather notable gains since the president added it to his portfolio.
More precisely, SM shares are up 76% since January 26 when the trade was disclosed, and are now up 79% year-to-date, trading at $34.32 at press time.
SM stock price. Source: Google Finance As can be guessed, the rally came amid a sharp rebound in energy stocks, driven by rising crude prices. Further optimism came as a result of SM Energy’s Civitas merger and cash flow outlook.
Analysts now point to accelerating production growth, debt reduction efforts, and improving shareholder returns as other key catalysts, with some, such as Raymond James, arguing SM Energy is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current geopolitical situation.
SM Energy has plenty more room to run, Raymond James claims Notably, Raymond James upgraded its SM Energy rating from ‘Underperform’ to ‘Outperform’ on May 20, raising the target to $55 on improving fundamentals and a stronger-than-expected oil price backdrop.
As mentioned, the firm highlighted SM Energy as one of the best candidates to profit from the recent surge in oil prices, despite the stock’s already strong performance.
A key part of the bullish thesis centers on balance sheet improvement. Specifically, the independent oil producer has reduced absolute debt by approximately $700 million following the merger, and management expects leverage to fall below 1x by the fourth quarter.
Raymond James also pointed to upcoming shareholder returns, noting that SM Energy plans to initiate share buybacks in the second quarter of 2026, supported by strengthening free cash flow generation in the second half of the year.
As a result, further upside could emerge if the company continues executing on its deleveraging path while maintaining production momentum through 2026 and 2027.
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Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about SM Energy (SM - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
SM Energy currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.94, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 16 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.94 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 16 recommendations that derive the current ABR, eight are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 50% and 6.3% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for SM
Check price target & stock forecast for SM Energy here>>>
The ABR suggests buying SM Energy, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Should You Invest in SM?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for SM Energy, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 4.7% over the past month to $7.18.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for SM Energy. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for SM Energy may serve as a useful guide for investors.
SM Energy is rated a Strong Buy with a $50/share target, reflecting 48% upside potential driven by debt reduction and valuation re-rating. SM trades at a significant discount to peers, with a 4x EBITDA multiple and $6.9B in debt, but plans to allocate 80% of FCF to deleveraging. Merger synergies with Civitas have increased from $200M to $375M, supporting improved free cash flow and profitability, with full benefits expected by 2027.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFinding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: SM Energy (SM - Free Report) Denver, CO-based SM Energy Company, previously known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company, is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, exploitation, development, acquisition and production of natural gas and crude oil in North America. The company was founded in 1908 and incorporated in Delaware in the year 1915.
SM is a #2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. SM has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 17.3% over the past four weeks.
Five analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $2.38 to $7.47 per share. SM also boasts an average earnings surprise of +15.6%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, SM should be on investors' short list.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned +16.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.4% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has gained 1.3% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $2.01 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +34%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +7.5%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $7.47 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +37.8%. This estimate has changed +9.1% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.04 indicates a change of +7.7% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +3.6%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for SM Energy.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $2.1 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +164.4%. For the current and next fiscal years, $7.59 billion and $7.63 billion estimates indicate +140.7% and +0.5% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $1.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +75.1%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.96%. The EPS surprise was +20.16%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways VLO benefits from resilient fuel demand and tight capacity, keeping refining margins strong.SM Energy's E&P outlook is supported by high oil prices and its footprint in the Permian and DJ basins.Valero Energy shows lower debt exposure and a more established capital-return track record than SM. Oil prices continue to trade at elevated levels, keeping energy companies in the spotlight. High prices of the commodity generally brighten the outlook for exploration and production players, but the overall business environment is also favorable for refining companies due to several fundamental factors. Against this backdrop, let us compare two energy firms, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) and SM Energy (SM - Free Report) , to determine which stock offers a better opportunity now.
VLO to Gain on Resilient Demand & Tight Refining CapacityThe global refining capacity is constrained, and fuel inventories are low. On the demand side, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain resilient. This means people are still driving and flying quite often, while diesel demand suggests transportation, freight, agriculture and industrial activity are still holding up. As a result, with busy refineries and fuel not available in abundance, refining margins for refiners like VLO are quite strong. Thus, despite the price of raw crude being high now, as reflected in the price of West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude, which is trading at more than the $90-per-barrel mark, refiners like VLO are still in the sweet spot now.
High Oil Prices a Key Driver of SM's Energy OperationsThe Iran-war shock is driving the high crude oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) in its latest short-term energy outlook projected WTI at $85.68 per barrel this year, higher than $65.40 last year. A highly favorable pricing environment for the commodity is likely to continue supporting SM Energy’s exploration and production activities, which derive a significant proportion of its earnings.
To have a glimpse of its upstream assets, the company has a strong footprint in shale basins in the United States, comprising the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, the DJ Basin and others. The company mentioned that its operations are spread across roughly 237,000 net acres in the Permian and almost 303,000 net acres in the low-cost DJ Basin.
Considering the ongoing high oil prices and footprint in low-cost, high-quality basins, the business outlook of SM Energy seems promising.
VLO Has Stronger Balance Sheet, Capital Return StoryThe balance sheet of VLO has lower exposure to debt capital compared to SM. This is reflected in the fact that VLO’s debt-to-capitalization of 29.9% is lower than the 53.7% of SM Energy.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
When it comes to the capital return, VLO’s story is more proven and has been rewarding shareholders for the long term. On the flip side, SM is now primarily focusing on lowering its debt burden, following which it may commence repurchases in the second quarter.
VLO or SM: Which is a Better Stock?Coming to the price chart, both Valero Energy and SM Energy have had a strong run-up over the past year. Over the period, VLO has jumped 88.9%, while SM gained 41.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
On a relative basis, VLO is trading at a 7.48x trailing 12-month Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is a premium compared with SM’s 6.00x.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Thus, it has become evident that investors are willing to pay a premium for VLO over SM. This represents that investors are betting on VLO’s handsome refining margins, stronger balance sheet and more proven shareholders' reward policy despite high oil prices aiding SM’s bottom line. Valero Energy currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
However, those who already own SM stock can stay invested. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Resources Investor Relations Journalists Agencies Client Login Send a Release News Products Contact , /PRNewswire/ -- SM Energy Company (the "Company" or "SM") (NYSE: SM) today announced that its Board of Directors approved the quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share of common stock outstanding. The dividend will be paid on June 22, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 8, 2026.
About SM Energy Company
SM is a premier, scaled operator of top-tier oil and gas assets across four leading U.S. shale basins: the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, South Texas, and Uinta Basin. SM is focused on operational excellence, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering growing returns to stockholders. SM routinely posts important information about the Company on its website. For more information, visit www.sm-energy.com.
Key Takeaways SM Energy has 237,000 net Permian acres; the basin supplied 49% of March-quarter volumes.SM's EV/EBITDA is 5.80x vs. the industry's 11.98x, pointing to a lower valuation.SM is up 34.4% in a year, and the 2026 consensus earnings estimate rose over the past seven days. The Permian is the most prolific basin in the United States, and companies with a strong footprint in the region are generally considered to have a strong production outlook. This is a low-cost basin, with the cost of conducting operations in the basin relatively low. Recently, energy companies have bolstered their positions in the Permian by acquiring undeveloped acres. Thus, companies like SM Energy (SM - Free Report) that have a presence in the Permian are well poised to gain.
To gain a glimpse of its upstream assets, SM Energy has a strong footprint in shale basins in the United States, including the Permian, the most prolific basin, the DJ Basin and others. The company mentioned that its operations are spread across roughly 237,000 net acres in the Permian. Of the total production for the March quarter of this year, the Permian was responsible for roughly 49% of total volumes.
With the strong Permian presence and the ongoing high crude pricing environment, as reflected by the West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude trading at more than $90 per barrel, the overall business outlook for SM looks encouraging.
DVN & MTDR Also Boosts Solid Permian PresenceDevon Energy Corporation (DVN - Free Report) and Matador Resources Company (MTDR - Free Report) are now on investors’ radar following the recent announcements of acquisitions of undeveloped acres in the Delaware, a sub-basin of the broader Permian. While DVN bought 16,300 net undeveloped acres, Matador Resources acquired 5,154 net acres.
Both Devon Energy and Matador Resources are also benefiting from the strong crude prices.
SM’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of SM have jumped 34.4% over the past year compared with the 20.7% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.80X. This is below the broader industry average of 11.98X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SM’s 2026 earnings has seen upward earnings estimate revisions over the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways SM Energy expanded its footprint to 696,000 net acres after the Civitas merger across four major U.S. basins.SM Energy achieved production of 371.2 MBoe/d in Q1 2026, with Permian yields increasing 117% sequentially.SM Energy raised its 2026 production guidance while keeping capital spending unchanged. SM Energy Company (SM - Free Report) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil in North America. The company strengthened its asset portfolio through the January 2026 merger with Civitas, which expanded its presence in the Permian and DJ basins. The merger integrated new Midland and Delaware acreage, bringing SM's footprint to roughly 696,000 net acres spanning the Permian, DJ, South Texas and Uinta basins.
The portfolio diversification drives operational efficiency and fuels long-term production growth. The expanded asset base immediately boosted production, resulting in first-quarter 2026 output of 371.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), including 190.3 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d) of oil, both of which exceeded guidance. Notably, the integration of Civitas assets drove a 117% sequential increase in Permian yields.
SM Energy is leveraging its expanded asset base to drive stronger well performance and capital efficiency. The Civitas merger enabled the company to raise its 2026 production guidance without additional capital spending. The company expects its expanded asset portfolio to achieve production between 410 Mboe/d and 430 MBoe/d, including oil production in the range of 222-228 MBbl/d by 2026.
XOM & CVX Position for Higher ProductionExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) maintains a strong presence in the prolific Permian Basin. Following its strategic acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, XOM’s Permian footprint spans 1.4 million net acres. Leveraging this expanded asset portfolio, ExxonMobil is expected to increase Permian production to approximately 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBoe/d) by 2030.
Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is an integrated energy giant with global operations across exploration, production and refining. The Hess acquisition added world-class Guyana assets and 463,000 net acres in the Bakken region within the Williston Basin, enhancing Chevron’s long-term production potential. Driven by the successful integration of Hess and growing output from the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin, CVX’s first-quarter 2026 net oil-equivalent production increased 15% to 3.86 MMBoe/d. Chevron projects 7% to 10% production growth for 2026 compared with 2025 levels.
SM’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesSM Energy's shares have gained 33% over the past year compared with 15.3% growth in the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 5.74X. This is below the broader industry average of 11.47X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SM's 2026 earnings has been unchanged over the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SM Energy currently carries Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
, /PRNewswire/ -- SM Energy Company (the "Company" or "SM") (NYSE: SM) is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference on June 23, 2026. President and CEO Beth McDonald will present at 9:30 a.m. MT (11:30 a.m. ET). The Company's June 2026 Investor Presentation has been posted to its website.
Please visit the Investor Relations/News & Events page on the SM website to view event details and to access the live webcast, any replay, and SM's investor presentation.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities laws. The words "intends to" and "will" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this release include, among other things, the expectation that the Company will participate in certain events and post presentations in accordance with these events. The forward-looking statements contained herein speak as of the date of this release. Although SM may from time to time voluntarily update its prior forward-looking statements, it disclaims any commitment to do so, except as required by applicable securities laws.
About SM Energy Company
SM is a premier, scaled operator of top-tier oil and gas assets across four leading U.S. shale basins: the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, South Texas, and Uinta Basin. SM is focused on operational excellence, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering growing returns to stockholders. SM routinely posts important information about the Company on its website. For more information, visit www.sm-energy.com.
SM Energy is now a four-basin operator post-Civitas merger, with a focus on synergy realization and deleveraging. Q1 results demonstrated disciplined capital spending, production outperformance, and rapid synergy capture, supporting a bullish investment case. SM trades at deep valuation discounts (3.99x forward P/E, 3.10x EV/EBITDA) due to debt concerns, but accelerated debt reduction and buybacks could drive re-rating.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for SM Energy (SM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 16.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is SM Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
SM Energy Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/YSM Energy reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 by 20.16%. The figure declined 11.9% from the year-ago quarter’s $1.76. Total revenues of $1.48 billion increased 75% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $1.44 billion by 2.99%.
The quarter reflected SM’s first full reporting period after the Civitas merger, with average net daily production of 371.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) providing a larger base for cash generation alongside cost and capital efficiency improvements.
Better-than-expected quarterly results can be attributed to the increase in oil-equivalent production volumes.
SM Integrates Civitas and Lifts Synergy TargetManagement framed 2026 around “Integrate, Execute and Bolster,” and the early integration cadence is translating into a higher synergy outlook. SM raised its annualized run-rate synergy target to $375 million, with about $300 million already actioned.
The updated synergy plan spans interest savings, overhead and operational efficiencies. Interest savings are now targeted at $75 million, with full actioning achieved. Meanwhile, overhead and G&A synergies were lifted to $100 million, with most of the organizational structure already in place. The remaining upside is concentrated in drilling, completions and operations. The new $200 million target reflects changes such as completion design optimization, simul-frac adoption in the DJ Basin and broader procurement and scheduling leverage.
Production Volumes Benefit From Four-Basin MixBeyond scale, the merged portfolio is showing how basin diversity can influence realized pricing and margins. In the quarter, SM’s total production mix was 51% oil and the overall realized price averaged $44.22 per Boe before hedges. The average net daily production was up 88% compared to the prior-year quarter.
Realizations varied by commodity and basin, underscoring the value of market optionality. SM’s realized oil price (before the effect of derivatives) averaged $73.69 per barrel, compared with $70.56 in the year-ago quarter. The realized natural gas was $1.72 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) and NGLs were $21.58 per barrel, lower than $3.30 per Mcf and $25.86 per barrel, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025.
Costs and ExpensesUnit operating costs were supportive, even as the quarter carried merger-related expenses. Lease operating expense was $6.25 per Boe, up 2% compared with the first quarter of 2025. Transportation costs were $3.65 per Boe, down 7% from the prior-year quarter’s level. Management noted that both metrics came in below internal expectations and said that it is maintaining cost guidance for now as a cushion against potential inflation.
On the income statement, SM reported a net loss of $335 million, largely tied to a $697 million net derivative loss from mark-to-market accounting on the hedge book. Total operating expenses were $1.78 billion, including $174 million in general and administrative expenses and $432 million in depletion, depreciation and amortization expenses. Transaction and integration costs worth $135 million were recorded during the quarter.
Cash Generation & Balance SheetEven with one-time integration and transaction-related cash costs, SM posted an operating cash flow of $640 million. Adjusted free cash flow was $20 million and capital expenditures during the period totaled $555 million.
Balance sheet actions remained a major theme. As of March 31, 2026, SM held $449 million of cash and cash equivalents and reported net debt of $7.35 billion.
OutlookSM raised its full-year 2026 production guidance to 410-430 MBoe/d, including oil volumes of 222-228 MBbl/d. For the second quarter of 2026, total production is expected in the 435-450 MBoe/d range, with oil production guided to 228-235 MBbl/d.
The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 capital expenditures plan of $2.65-$2.85 billion and highlighted a clear path to low-1x leverage by year-end. SM also strengthened its capital return framework with a 10% increase in the annual fixed dividend to 88 cents per share and an expected allocation of 20% of post-dividend free cash flow to share repurchases. Management indicated that buybacks should begin in the second quarter.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 7.49% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresAt this time, SM Energy has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, SM Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry PlayerSM Energy is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Over the past month, EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
EOG Resources reported revenues of $6.92 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +22.1%. EPS of $3.41 for the same period compares with $2.87 a year ago.
EOG Resources is expected to post earnings of $4.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +96.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +16.4%.
EOG Resources has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
In the latest trading session, SM Energy (SM - Free Report) closed at $32.21, marking a -5.15% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 2.65% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 1.35%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 4.18%.
Coming into today, shares of the independent oil and gas company had gained 16.7% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 3.06%, while the S&P 500 gained 5.47%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of SM Energy in its upcoming release. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $2.01, marking a 34% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $2.1 billion, indicating a 164.38% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $7.47 per share and revenue of $7.59 billion, which would represent changes of +37.82% and +140.73%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for SM Energy. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 9.08% upward. SM Energy is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
In the context of valuation, SM Energy is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 4.55. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 9.89 for its industry.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 93, placing it within the top 39% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned +5.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has gained 2.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.87 per share, indicating a change of +24.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.4% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.3 points to a change of +34.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +5.5%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.1 indicates a change of +11% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +5.1%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, SM Energy is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate of $2.05 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +158.2%. The $7.56 billion and $7.67 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +139.6% and +1.5%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $1.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +75.1%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.96%. The EPS surprise was +20.16%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
On June 09, 2026, SM Energy Co SM shares fell 4.0%, closing at $31.08. During the last 52 weeks, the stock has traded between a low of $17.45 and a high of $35.88, reflecting a notable increase in value over the year.
GF Value™ indicates that SM is 37.0% undervalued, with a fair value estimated at $49.34.With a GF Score™ of 74/100, SM is considered to have an above-average potential for long-term returns.Insider activity has shown that insiders sold $0.8 million worth of shares in the last three months without any purchases. Is SM Overvalued or Undervalued? Based on the current price of $31.08 compared to the GF Value™ of $49.34, SM Energy Co appears to be undervalued by approximately 37.0%. This creates a significant margin of safety for potential investors looking at the stock. However, the GF Valuation label indicates that SM could be a possible value trap, which suggests caution when considering this investment opportunity. GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure of intrinsic value, calculated from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates.
While the undervaluation presents an opportunity, potential risks should also be assessed, particularly given the recent insider selling and the company's low predictability rating of 1 star. This combination may suggest that the market sentiment around SM is cautious, despite the attractive valuation metrics.
How Does SM's Valuation Compare to Its History? Metric Current Historical P/E (TTM) 13.1x 5.2x Forward P/E 4.6x N/A SM Energy Co's current P/E ratio of 13.1x is significantly above its 5-year median P/E of 5.2x, indicating that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation. The forward P/E of 4.6x suggests more favorable earnings expectations ahead. This P/E analysis somewhat contradicts the GF Value™ verdict, as the higher current P/E implies that the market may be pricing in more optimistic growth prospects than past performance would suggest.
What Does SM's GF Score™ Tell Us? Metric Rating GF Score™ 74 Financial Strength 4/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 8/10 Valuation 4/10 Momentum 3/10 The GF Score™ of 74/100 suggests that SM Energy Co has solid long-term return potential, particularly driven by its growth rank of 8/10 and profitability rank of 7/10. However, the financial strength and momentum ranks of 4/10 and 3/10, respectively, indicate areas of concern that could affect the stock's performance. Investors should be cautious of these weaker aspects while considering the overall score, as they may influence future stock price movements.
What Are Insiders Doing with SM Stock? Recent insider activity at SM Energy Co has been predominantly negative, with insiders selling $0.8 million worth of shares over the past three months and no reported purchases. This selling could reflect a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the company's future performance or could be a strategic move to capitalize on recent gains. The absence of insider buying may raise concerns for potential investors, as it could indicate that those with the most intimate knowledge of the company do not see an immediate need to invest further.
What This Means for Investors SM Energy Co appears to be undervalued based on GF Value™, with significant potential upside compared to its current trading price. However, investors should exercise caution due to the company's weak financial strength, low momentum, and recent insider selling activity. The combination of these factors suggests that while there are opportunities, there are also considerable risks that need to be carefully evaluated.
For the complete analysis, visit the SM Energy Co SM stock page. You can also explore the GF Value™ page for detailed valuation methodology, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find similar opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions What is SM's GF Score™?
SM's GF Score™ is 74/100, indicating that the stock has above-average potential for long-term returns based on various fundamental factors.
Is SM overvalued or undervalued?
SM Energy Co is currently undervalued, with a GF Value™ of $49.34 compared to its current price of $31.08, suggesting a potential upside of 37.0%.
What is SM's P/E ratio?
SM's P/E ratio is 13.1x, which is significantly above its 5-year median of 5.2x, indicating that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
SM Energy (SM - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $31.28, demonstrating a -4.72% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.75% gain on the day. At the same time, the Dow added 1.86%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.54%.
Coming into today, shares of the independent oil and gas company had gained 5.33% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 0.13%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.63%.
The upcoming earnings release of SM Energy will be of great interest to investors. On that day, SM Energy is projected to report earnings of $1.87 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 24.67%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $2.05 billion, up 158.24% from the year-ago period.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $7.3 per share and revenue of $7.56 billion. These totals would mark changes of +34.69% and +139.56%, respectively, from last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for SM Energy. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 5.49% higher. At present, SM Energy boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Investors should also note SM Energy's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 4.5. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 9.87, which means SM Energy is trading at a discount to the group.
The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 109, putting it in the top 45% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
