Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday and trades around $67.50 at the time of writing, up 2.64% on the day. The white metal benefits from broad weakness in the US Dollar (USD), but its recovery faces a challenging environment for precious metals as surging energy prices revive inflation concerns and strengthen expectations of higher US interest rates.
The US Dollar remains under pressure, notably due to a sharp appreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, falls around 0.25% on Wednesday and trades near 98.61, close to its lowest level since August 21. A weaker US Dollar tends to support Silver by making the precious metal cheaper for investors using other currencies.
This support is nevertheless offset by the sharp rise in Oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The US military says it destroyed five Iranian Oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempted to attack a US Navy warship. Tehran responded by targeting several American vessels and Oil tankers, while concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Persistently elevated energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures and force major central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies.
In the United States, these developments are also fueling expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in around a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. This prospect represents a headwind for Silver, a non-yielding asset that tends to become relatively less attractive when interest rates rise.
US Treasury yields also reflect these expectations. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 4.80%, near its highest level since November 2023. The combination of elevated yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy therefore limits the metal's ability to fully benefit from the weaker US Dollar.
On the economic front, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data shows that US private employers added an average of 12K jobs per week during the period ending August 22, compared with a downwardly revised 10K previously. Investors now turn their attention to the Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Thursday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Friday. Hotter-than-expected inflation figures could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and put renewed pressure on Silver.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Pretty Good Longer-term Outlook for Silver Overall, though, when I look at this, I cannot help but think the market is just on pins and needles, waiting to see what the next shot across the bow is, which might be literal if we are talking about tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as energy prices are driving up inflation expectations.
The longer-term outlook for silver is actually pretty good. It is part of the electrification and AI trade as far as the build-out is concerned, and there is obvious demand from there. But at the same time, it is sensitive to interest rates, and that is part of what the drag has been.
For myself, I am looking at this as a short-term, choppy, range-bound market, with a bit of the occasional volatility out there.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.58 per troy ounce, up 1.23% from the $65.76 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 6.34% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.08 on Wednesday, down from 66.23 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on its intraday ascent and climbs back closer to the weekly high, around the $67.00 neighborhood during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal, however, remains confined within a familiar range held over the past week or so, warranting some caution for bulls ahead of the crucial US inflation figures.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD bulls need to wait for acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged just ahead of the $67.00 mark, before placing fresh bets. This will also mark a fresh breakout through the trading range and pave the way for additional near-term gains.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the mid-50s, hinting at stabilizing momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a modest positive reading after a shallow dip, suggesting that the downside pressure is fading but not yet reversed, while the XAG/USD remains below the 100-SMA.
On the topside, momentum beyond the $67.00 mark could extend further towards retesting the monthly swing high, around the $68.00 round figure. Some follow-through buying would ease any near-term bearish tone and reaffirm a constructive outlook. On the downside, immediate support is seen near x$65.40-$65.30 or the lower boundary of the trading range.
A convincing break below would shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the monthly swing low, around the $63.35-$63.30 region, and drag the XAG/USD further below the $63.00 mark, towards the 62.20 support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
It Has Held Up Fairly Well Ultimately, this is a market that is dealing with the 10-year at points in time going to 4.8%. But we also have heavy inflation coming out of the crude oil market, and that could be a bit of an issue as well.
As long as the oil situation remains so messy with the headlines coming out of the Persian Gulf, it’s difficult to imagine that the bond markets will be calm. This is a scenario that has been the norm for some time now, and there are no signs of it changing in the short-term.
Furthermore, we get the ECB rate hike, at least the expected rate hike, on Thursday. We also get CPI on Friday in the United States and then a Federal Reserve potential rate hike next week.
There’s a lot going on in the short term. It has held up fairly well. I do have to say that, but it just doesn’t have any momentum. Short-term traders are probably attracted to the somewhat well-defined range at the moment, as the markets are simply not giving bigger moves currently.
Silver (XAG/USD) pulls back on Tuesday after failing to hold its earlier advance. At the time of writing, the metal trades around $66 after reaching an intraday high near $67.19. The retreat comes as rising Oil prices add to concerns that inflation could stay elevated and encourage central banks to keep borrowing costs high.
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on Silver because the metal offers no yield. Expectations of tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy have strengthened since Friday’s upbeat US employment report, with the CME FedWatch tool showing around a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike next week.
However, the downside in Silver appears limited as the US Dollar (USD) stays under pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.82 after briefly reclaiming 99, hovering near its lowest level in more than two weeks.
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The figures will help determine whether the Fed raises interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD holds above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $62 and a dense Fibonacci support band clustered between the 61.8% retracement at $60.97 and the 38.2% level at $64.80, suggesting downside attempts remain cushioned for now.
However, price still trades below the 100-day SMA at $67.28 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.17, keeping the broader tone neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hinting at fading upside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.17, closely followed by the 100-day SMA at $67. A daily close above this confluence would open the way toward the next hurdle at the prior swing anchor near $71 and then the 200-day SMA at $72.
On the downside, immediate support comes from the 38.2% retracement at $64.80, with further cushions at the 50% level at $62.89 and the 61.8% retracement at $60.97. A break below this band would expose deeper Fibonacci support at $58.24 and $54.77, where the 50-day SMA at $62 currently underpins the broader consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.88 per troy ounce, down 0.55% from the $66.24 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 7.33% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.72 on Tuesday, up from 66.61 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading flat at the $66.00 area on Tuesday, holding minor gains on the weekly chart after bouncing from the mid-range of the $64.00s last week. The precious metal is drawing some support from a soft US Dollar, as US markets return from a long weekend, with traders awaiting Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to assess the outcome of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Analysts at HSBC observe that a combination of “weaker US data, persistent inflation concerns, policy credibility questions, and political risks all weigh on the Dollar, fueling the debasement conversation.” However, they note that Fed Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks marked an important turning point, as his speech “helped ease one key part of that story by restoring confidence in the Fed’s commitment to fight inflation.”
This has “helped reduce the risk that weak policy credibility would become a lasting drag on the Dollar and denting the debasement narrative, at least for now,” say the HSBC experts. Even so, the bank cautions about "broader structural concerns, especially around US fiscal sustainability, which could still return and weigh on the Dollar yet again.”
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction halfway through the mintly range
XAG/USD trades at $66.02 halfway through the monthly range, roughly between $63.00 and $71.00, just below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average, at the $73.00 area. Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping modestly below zero, all in all reflecting a lack of clear bias.
Initial resistance is seen at the August 25 and 27 lows around $67.40, ahead of the June 12 and August 28 highs, between $71.12 and $71.56, and the mentioned 200-day SMA at $72.95.
On the downside, Friday's low, near $64.75, might hold bears ahead of a key support level in the $63.00 area. A break of that level would confirm a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, increasing pressure towards the August 6 low at $60.87.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold, silver correlations with dollar near historical extremes
DXY sits just above an important support zone
US inflation next key risk event for markets
Disorderly yen carry trade unwind remains a left-tail risk
Gold and silver have essentially become a play on directional movements in the US dollar over the past month, and especially the past fortnight, with the strength of the inverse relationship pushing towards historical extremes.
Dollar relationship moves into rare territory
While the inverse relationship between gold, silver and other precious metals with the US dollar has been evident for decades, the strength of the relationship is unusually high right now.
Source: LSEG
Over the past 10 trading days, gold’s correlation with DXY has fallen to around -0.88, while silver’s stands at -0.83. Those readings sit around the 3rd percentile for gold and 4th percentile for silver relative to their respective histories, meaning the inverse relationship has only been stronger during a very small proportion of comparable windows.
The 20-day relationship is also tight, with gold at around -0.76 and silver at -0.73, ranking near the 6th and 5th percentiles respectively.
With the DXY just above an important support level, should that extreme relationship be maintained, a downside break in the DXY points to the increased risk of renewed upside across the precious metals complex.
Yen strength adds pressure to the dollar
Source: Tradingview
DXY finds itself struggling beneath the 200-day moving average, having slid back beneath it late last week, and is now perched above a support zone comprising the May 29 low of 98.75, along with the 50% retracement of the 2026 low-high at 98.68.
There were two unsuccessful probes beneath the zone back in August, but with the oscillators rolling over, indicating downside momentum is building again, the risk of a downside break appears to be growing, especially with the Japanese yen continuing to strengthen on Tuesday, seeing USD/JPY hit levels not seen since February.
Should the unwind be sustained, it would only add to downside risk for the broader DXY index, especially should the euro join the move.
Gold wedged between key levels
Source: Tradingview
Early gains in Asia have reversed in the latter parts of the session, with the push higher stalling just beneath the confluence of the August downtrend and horizontal resistance at $4,450 an ounce. Those levels are the immediate focal point overhead.
Underneath where the price now trades, $4,367 is the first level on the radar given it acted as support and resistance on multiple occasions going back to the early parts of this year. Further below, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the January to June low-high is located at $4,333 an ounce. Dips beneath that level, down to the early September low of $4,283, have made for good buying over recent months.
The message from the oscillators is one of neutrality. RSI (14) sits just beneath the 50 while MACD is running parallel to the signal line, sitting just in negative territory.
With the technical picture for gold offering little from a directional breakout perspective, dollar performance around the US inflation data on Thursday and Friday may be influential in determining which direction the price shifts next.
Silver triangle points to breakout risk
Source: Tradingview
Like gold, silver has staged a sizable reversal late in the Asian session, mirroring similar price action in Asian tech stocks that opened strongly before gains were slowly whittled away.
From a technical perspective, the price on the four-hourly continues to coil in an ascending triangle, with moves above $67 towards $67.50 resistance capping gains for the moment, while dips towards the uptrend established in early September continue to attract buying.
While ascending triangles are often associated with bullish breakouts, I would not be rushing to establish longs without a clear and sustained push above $67.50, given the iffy price beneath it recently.
The cautious view is only strengthened by the risk of forced yen carry trade unwinds, some of which have likely found their way into the precious metals space, creating the risk of disorderly downside moves across the precious metals complex. Whichever direction the price breaks from the structure may be informative as to where directional risks lie over the medium term.
Overhead, silver struggled underneath $70 in late August, and while there was one bullish breakout that eventually occurred, it stalled at $70.90, a level that acted as support and resistance on multiple occasions going back to late April.
On the downside, $65.50, the September 4 low of $64.75, and $63.30 are the focal points before $62.90 comes into view, another support and resistance level going back to earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators is neutral with RSI (14) sitting at 48 while MACD is flatlining above the signal line, holding just in positive territory. Focus should therefore be on price rather than adoption of a specific directional bias, with DXY gyrations another useful input when assessing potential setups.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.25% to near $67.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields come under pressure, with investors shifting their focus to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of August scheduled for Friday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.83 even after recovering some of its early losses. 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.17% to near 4.77%.
Lower US bond yields result in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Investors will pay close attention to the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
TD Securities sees core inflation contained even as headline CPI firmsAccording to TD Securities, the August CPI report is likely to show that “underlying inflation stayed under control,” with core prices “rising 0.19% m/m (2.3% y/y).” The bank expects the “services segment” to be the main driver of gains, while “core goods prices likely acted as a drag by posting a modest m/m drop.”
In contrast, TD looks for “headline CPI” to post “a stronger 0.37% m/m (3.4% y/y) due to rising energy prices and a slight pickup in food inflation.” The bank also cautions that “risks to our forecasts” are “skewed to the upside,” noting that its projections assume “a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories, including apparel and household goods.”
Before the US consumer inflation data, investors will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data of August, which will be released on Thursday.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.97. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $66.49, suggesting the recent pullback is being supported rather than reversed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 keeps a mildly positive tone, hinting that bullish momentum is still intact without yet pushing into overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the nine-day EMA at $66.49, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper consolidation toward lower levels not yet defined by the present indicators. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 could act as a key hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 04:47 GMT on Tuesday to say in the title that Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $67, not $37)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend. Source: TradingView 200-Day Average Remains Critical Another pattern unfolding is that the current advance from the July low represents the first pullback to test the 200-day moving average as resistance since silver broke below it in June. So far, resistance was seen during the advance two weeks ago. However, another upswing could develop, giving silver another opportunity to test that major long-term trend indicator. Even if the 200-day average is eventually reclaimed, further resistance remains likely during this initial approach to the average.
Channel Points Toward Higher Targets There are also early signs of a rising channel forming since the July bottom. Notably, silver could advance toward the $71.56 to $72.81 range while remaining inside the boundaries of the channel. Another potential upside target is the confluence of several indicators, including the upper downtrend line, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $76.16, and the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Weekly Signal Raises Stakes Finally, the weekly chart shows that a bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern formed last week. Therefore, a breakout above last week’s high of $67.47 would not only confirm renewed short-term strength but also provide a bullish reversal signal on the weekly chart. That means that a breakout above last week’s high of $67.47 noted above, will also provide a bullish reversal signal on the weekly chart. That should reinforce the bullish reversal setup signaled by the July support test and increase the significance of the current advance.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Dominant Driver Is Higher US Rate Expectations Following the Friday jobs number that was much stronger than anticipated, rising 162,000 versus the 56,000 expected. This is pushing the market implied rate hike probability of a September Fed hike to about 60%. That lifts yields, which creates a headwind for silver most of the time.
Yielding metals and assets in general will shy away from that. Right now, it does have the longer-term industrial supply argument underneath it, keeping it somewhat firm. And I personally do believe that silver will continue to be in demand over the next several years.
The supply just isn’t growing quickly enough to meet demand, but that doesn’t do a lot for short term price.
The higher oil prices could keep energy inflation elevated, and that is part of what’s going on with interest rates around the world. So with that, it’s a scenario where interest rates remain elevated, and silver remains somewhat compressed.
We’re hanging around the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which typically causes some noise for short-term hiccups anyways, so marry that with the fact that it’s a holiday. It’s pretty neutral at the moment.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Monday, falling 0.79% on the day to around $65.70 at the time of writing. The white metal is feeling the impact of the strong US employment report, which has revived expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and supports the US Dollar (USD).
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the US economy added 162K jobs in August, well above the market consensus of 56K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations, while annual Average Hourly Earnings growth eased slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% previously.
These figures reinforce the view that the US labor market remains strong enough to allow the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices are also contributing to expectations of a potential interest rate hike as soon as the central bank's next meeting.
The prospect of higher US interest rates is a negative factor for Silver, which does not offer any yield. At the same time, it provides support to the US Dollar, making the precious metal more expensive for investors using other currencies.
However, expectations of monetary tightening remain dependent on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if upcoming indicators confirmed that inflationary pressures were easing.
Investors' attention therefore turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These releases should provide fresh clues about the inflation trajectory and could play a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next policy decision.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in financial markets. US forces struck three Iranian Oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted six vessels in retaliation.
The exchange of attacks is fueling concerns over the security of shipping through the strategic waterway and the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This backdrop supports energy prices and reinforces inflation risks, potentially keeping expectations of restrictive Fed monetary policy elevated.
Geopolitical tensions could nevertheless limit Silver's downside by simultaneously fueling demand for safe-haven assets. The white metal therefore remains caught between potential support from defensive flows and pressure from higher US interest rate expectations and a stronger US Dollar.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.90 per troy ounce, down 0.47% from the $66.21 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 7.29% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.94 on Monday, broadly unchanged from 66.91 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) nudges lower on Monday, hitting session lows in the mid-$65.00s after a reversal from the $68.00 area. Precious metals are struggling on Monday, as US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures beat expectations last Friday, boosting hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates next week, although the market awaits Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for confirmation.
US NFP figures showed a 162K increase in net employment in August, well above the 57K forecasted by market analysts, easing concerns about a softening labour market. The data prompted investors to ramp up bets on a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 monetary policy meeting to a 58% chance, from around 50% before the release, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool.
Analysts at ING point to Friday’s August CPI release as the main focus this week, where they see “month-on-month readings at 0.4% and 0.2% for headline and core (inflation) should be enough to sway the Fed towards a 25bp rate hike on 16 September,” a move they note is “just priced with a 58% probability at the moment.”
Technical Analysis: The neckline of a H&S formation lies around $63.30
XAG/USD trades at $65.79, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds well below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Friday's reversal from $68.00 looks like the second shoulder of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation, while momentum indicators in the daily chart highlight growing bearish pressure.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52 zone, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory, which suggests that upside attempts could remain capped.
On the downside, the pair might find support at Friday's low near $64.75, although the key level is the September 2 low, at $63.30, which would confirm the H&S pattern and add pressure toward the August 6 low, near $61.00.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at a previous support area around $67.50, which held bulls on Friday. Further up, the mid-June highs around $71.60 and the 200-day SMA at $72.90 are likely to pose a significant challenge for bulls.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after opening at a bearish gap, remaining in negative territory and trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices remain under pressure as stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment data fuels expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, August Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 162,000, significantly outperforming the 56,000 forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and annual wage growth slowed less than anticipated to 3.1%. Following these figures, traders rapidly priced in tighter monetary policy, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 58.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September.
Hammack flags need for more Fed tightening as inflation stays too high Fed’s Hammack delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.6/10 historical average, signaling a clear shift toward tighter policy rhetoric. The assertion that Fed policy is “not restrictive” and that inflation is “too high,” combined with local contacts indicating “now is time for Fed to hike,” underscores a bias toward additional rate increases and challenges any market expectation of an imminent pivot. This tone supports a stronger Dollar narrative as markets reprice the path of policy toward further tightening.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.14 points to 125.72, reinforcing that overall Fed communication remains firmly in hawkish territory according to the FXS Speechtracker. With the index well above the neutral 100 mark, the latest move suggests incremental but meaningful reinforcement of higher-for-longer rate expectations, a backdrop typically supportive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies.
Adding to Silver's headwinds, rising crude oil prices have stoked fears of rekindled inflationary pressures following a geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend. The conflict intensified after the US targeted three Iranian tankers in response to missile attacks on its warships, leading Tehran to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.10. The near-term tone is neutral as price holds above the longer-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but sits just under the shorter-term nine-day EMA, hinting at consolidation after the recent advance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.70 stays slightly above neutral, suggesting modest positive momentum without entering overbought conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the nine-day EMA around $66.33, and a clear break above this dynamic cap would be needed to revive a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64.91; a daily close below this level would expose a deeper corrective phase, while holding above it would keep the broader constructive structure intact.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Daily price chart for Silver futures showing price at 65.800, resting right along the 200 EMA (65.660) and the 50 EMA (65.200). Source: TradingView The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Friday as the jobs number came out well over anticipated results. The expected number was right around 55,000 jobs added last month in America, ended up being 162,000, a huge miss, and to the upside. So that has traders worried about the potential of inflation, higher interest rates coming out of the Federal Reserve, and that typically is bad for silver. That explains part of what we’re seeing here.
Moving Average Support and Labor Day Volatility Ultimately though, it’s a market that is still well within the range of normalcy right around the 200-day EMA, as well as the 50-day EMA. So, as poor as the reaction was initially, at least so far, it doesn’t seem to be irreversible damage.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.67 per troy ounce, down 0.46% from the $66.98 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 6.21% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.97 on Friday, up from 66.79 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats to near $66.30 in the European trading session on Friday after posting a fresh five-day high near $68.00. The white metal comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
According to TD Securities, the US labour market is set for a partial recovery in August, with the bank forecasting that "August NFP [will] rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k." The firm also expects limited movement in joblessness, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks."
Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In TD’s view, a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes, suggesting that even a stronger print would not materially alter the current policy stance.
Meanwhile, traders have diminished Fed interest rate expectations after comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, in which he said that recent data shows signs of disinflation.
Analysts at Commerzbank also said that lingering uncertainty over the US rate outlook was “underscored yesterday by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” who, in their words, signalled that “a rate hike is by no means necessary.” They add that Waller “also confirmed what we have been arguing: next week’s inflation data are likely to be the key input for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision,” a shift in emphasis that, in their view, “further [reduces] the significance of today’s employment report.”
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.73, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $65.71. The metal is advancing within an uptrend structure, with price comfortably supported by this short-term EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 suggests moderate bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $65.71, where a break would expose the white metal to a deeper correction. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the key hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak to the weekly high set the previous day. The white metal, however, lacks bearish conviction and currently trades below the $67.00 mark, down 0.30% for the day, as traders await the release of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Heading into the key data risk, receding bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and sliding US bond yields keep the US Dollar (USD) near its lowest level in over a week. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD. That said, the technical setup warrants some caution for bullish traders and positioning for an extension of this week's goodish rebound from the $63.30 area.
The XAG/USD trades below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.84 and the mid-range Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline. Moreover, mixed technical momentum indicators suggest that rallies remain capped for now. In fact, the Relative Strength Index hovers in the mid-50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips into negative territory, hinting at waning upside pressure and validating the near-term cautious outlook.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $67.83, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50.0% retracement at $71.89 and the 200-day SMA at $72.84. A sustained strength above this cluster would be needed to ease the broader downside bias and expose the 61.8% level near $75.95. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. level at $62.81, with a deeper floor at the prior cycle low around the 0.0% retracement at $54.69, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if selling accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The silver price gained 15.6% in August, beating gold and major equity benchmarks in Deutsche Bank's selected cross-asset performance table. The silver price in US Dollars rose over 15% in August, topping Deutsche Bank's selected cross-asset table and comfortably outperforming gold and major equity markets.
Our own XAG/USD data recorded a monthly gain of 15.5%, with silver climbing from around $57.65 to $66.58.
Gold prices gained 9.7% in Deutsche Bank's comparison, while the KOSPI advanced around 9% and the S&P 500 returned 2.7%.
Silver therefore beat gold by almost six percentage points and outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 13 points.
Image: XAG/USD 48-hr chart The latest 48-hour chart shows silver recovering from $63.40 to around $66.32, leaving the metal 2.5% above its opening level despite sharp swings.
Silver Price Tops Deutsche Bank's August Table Deutsche Bank described August as a broadly positive month for financial markets.
“At first glance, August was a solid month. There was no late-summer wobble of the sort seen in recent years, and the economic data remained strong.”
Stocks benefited from resilient economic figures and a strong company earnings season, but their returns were well below silver's.
“That resilient macro backdrop, combined with a strong earnings season, helped equities deliver solid gains. The S&P 500 returned +2.7% over the month, with technology stocks leading the way as the Magnificent 7 rose +4.4%.”
Even the Magnificent Seven's 4.4% return was less than one-third of silver's advance.
The KOSPI came closest among the major equity benchmarks in the chart, while gold finished second overall at just under 10%.
Treasury Buybacks Lift Precious Metals Deutsche Bank connected the precious-metals rally with concerns about financial repression after the US Treasury announced increased purchases of longer-dated government debt.
“That was partly due to the US Treasury Department’s announcement that it would increase buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries. The move prompted a temporary pullback in longer-dated US yields, but renewed concerns about financial repression also helped lift gold prices by +9.7% in August, while silver gained +15.6%.”
The August rally was not a straight line.
Silver reached a monthly high above $71 before retreating, and the metal fell 3.6% on 1 September as changing Federal Reserve expectations triggered another bout of volatility.
Prices have since rebounded above $66, although XAG/USD remains below its late-August peak.
That choppy performance follows the sharp swings discussed in our earlier coverage of gold and silver prices after Fed hike risks returned.
Deutsche Bank's ranking applies only to the selected financial assets in its chart.
Some agricultural commodities discussed separately performed even better, with sugar up 21.5%, wheat gaining 18.3% and corn rising 16.8%.
Silver's next moves will depend on Federal Reserve rate expectations, the US Dollar and changes in long-dated Treasury yields.
Investor demand, precious-metals flows and the market's response to upcoming US employment and inflation data will also determine whether the August outperformance can be sustained.
Silver price advances by some 2.45% on Thursday, boosted by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, which pushed the US Dollar and US Treasury yields lower. The XAG/USD trades at $66.90, after reaching a high of $67.48.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe white metal is neutral to downward biased. After hitting an all-time high of $121.66, the Silver price respects the market structure of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control.
Momentum shifted in favour of bulls in the short-term as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped to its 50-neutral level before bouncing higher. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upwards.
To resume the uptrend, Silver must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.66. A breach of the latter will expose the August 28 swing high of $71.12, followed by the 200-day SMA at $72.78. If those two levels are taken out, buyers could challenge the May 25 high at $78.83, ahead of $80.00.
On the other hand, if XAG/USD struggles to break above the 100-day SMA, sellers could drive prices towards the September 2 swing low of $63.32. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 61.85, before the precious metal registers a leg lower towards $60.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Federal Reserve Policy and the Jobs Report The Federal Reserve, of course, recently had comments coming from Kevin Warsh that the Fed was possibly even going to have to tighten further. This jobs report number, if it ends up being hotter than anticipated, could reinforce that, and it could cause major problems for silver, as well as other commodities.
Conversely, if that jobs report comes out cooler than anticipated, the market could turn around and see silver go flying towards the upside again as traders may change their bets on Federal Reserve policy.
Right now, the market is in a bit of flux. It’s almost as if some people don’t believe him, and the bond market certainly doesn’t. But at this juncture, traders will be very cognizant of the next data point, making Thursday a potentially choppy session.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.88 per troy ounce, up 0.87% from the $65.31 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 7.32% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.35 on Thursday, up from 67.18 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
TL;DR: Silver has rebounded from 63.27 as the macro pressures behind its selloff simply stopped worsening, not reversed — leaving the 62.54–62.92 support cluster as the line that decides whether this is the start of the next leg higher or just a pause before deeper support is tested.
Silver Has Found Relief, Not Yet a New Bullish Story Silver has rebounded after sliding from 71.16 to 63.27, but recovery is not being driven by any obvious new silver-specific catalyst. Instead, two macro pressures behind selloff have simply stopped getting worse. US 10-year yield has flattened around 4.8% after its recent rise, while Brent has paused following its spike toward $97. Weak ADP employment at 38K, slowest since January, also interrupted momentum toward still more aggressive Fed pricing ahead of Friday’s NFP.
That makes latest move a pressure-easing story rather than a macro reversal. Fed is not suddenly dovish, yields have not collapsed and geopolitical risk around Iran has not disappeared. What changed is pace. And that pause arrived exactly where Silver needed it most technically.
62.54–62.92 Is Where Bull Case Must Hold Silver’s selloff stopped at 63.27, just above a particularly important support cluster. 62.54 is prior wave-four low, while 62.92 is 50% retracement of entire 54.77–71.16 advance. That makes area more than another chart level—it is where bullish interpretation of latest rally either survives or begins to break down.
As long as 62.54–62.92 holds, rise from 54.77 can still be treated as a five-wave advance, with decline from 71.16 representing correction. Break above 67.46 would strengthen that view and turn attention back toward 71.16. But a sustained break below 62.54 would challenge count and expose 60.92, the 61.8% retracement. Below there, risk of revisiting 54.77 would rise substantially.
Daily chart is also giving bulls something to work with. Silver has recovered above 55-day EMA around 64.92, keeping broader rebound structure intact for now. If 54.77 ultimately proves to be durable medium-term low, a later break of 71.16 would reopen 38.2% retracement of 121.64 to 54.77 at 80.32 at a later stage. But if price loses 55D EMA again and then breaks 62.54, argument that current weakness is merely corrective becomes much harder to defend.
Friday Decides Whether This Was a Floor or Just a Bounce That puts unusual weight on Friday’s payroll report. Consensus is around 58K, with unemployment expected at 4.1%. A weak NFP would reinforce current easing in Fed pressure, likely pull yields lower and give Silver a cleaner route through 67.46 toward 71.16. A strong report could revive hawkish repricing and force 62.54–62.92 support to prove itself again.
Iran and oil provide second live risk. If escalation pushes Brent back through $97 and toward $102–104, renewed inflation fears could pressure Silver even if Fed expectations are otherwise unchanged. Continued stabilization would make current rebound easier to sustain.
So technical question is unusually clean. Silver has reached its line in the sand. Holding 62.54–62.92 keeps five-wave recovery from 54.77 alive; losing it opens 60.92 and potentially much lower levels. NFP will tell us whether this week’s rebound is beginning of next leg higher—or simply a pause before that support is tested properly.
Key Takeaways Silver’s rebound from 63.27 reflects easing macro pressure — a flattening 10-year yield and a paused Brent rally — rather than any new bullish catalyst of its own. The 62.54–62.92 zone combines the prior wave-four low and the 50% retracement of the 54.77–71.16 advance, making it the key level for the bullish five-wave count. A break above 67.46 would strengthen the bullish case toward 71.16, while a sustained break below 62.54 exposes 60.92 and raises the risk of a retest of 54.77. Friday’s NFP (consensus 58K) is the key catalyst: a weak print supports a cleaner path higher, while a strong print would force the support cluster to prove itself again. Renewed Iran-driven oil escalation toward $102–104 is a second live risk that could pressure Silver independent of how Friday’s jobs data lands.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend Wednesday’s strong recovery move above $66.25 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal could remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.
US jobs rebound seen keeping Fed on hold despite hawkish risksAccording to TD Securities, August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to “rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k,” with the firm cautioning that “risks to our payrolls forecasts appear hawkish, and we would not rule out an outsized positive surprise.” The unemployment rate is projected to have “gone sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks,” suggesting only limited change in headline labour market conditions.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP report as it is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Analysts at TD say that “a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes,” as they “continue to expect that inflation data can print modestly, allowing the Fed to keep rates on hold for now.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a two-in-three chance that the Fed will increase interest rates in the September policy meeting.
Elsewhere, higher oil prices due to restricted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, could fizzle out the recovery move in the Silver price.
Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that increases fears of interest rate hikes from central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.00. The pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.51, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price extends its recovery from the mid-$50s area.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.04 sits in neutral territory but leans higher, which suggests buyers still have the upper hand without the market being overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $65.51, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. Looking up, the August high near $71 is expected to remain a key barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its Wednesday recovery move on Thursday, trading 0.67% higher at around $65.70 during the European trading session. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) declines further due to moderate job demand in the United States (US) private sector.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to Wednesday’s low near 99.45.
On Wednesday, the US ADP reported that the private sector created 38K fresh jobs in August, fewer than 47K estimates and the prior release of 46K. This has created an unfavorable backdrop for the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published on Friday.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
Meanwhile, a pause in the rally in US Treasury Yields has also offered some support to non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
10-year US Treasury Yields have corrected to near 4.77% after posting a fresh high of 4.82%, a level last seen in October 2023.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.92. The pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.50, which suggests a constructive near-term bias as price continues to respect trend support.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.85 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is present but not overstretched after the latest advance.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA at $65.50, where buyers are likely to defend the ongoing upswing if a pullback unfolds. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the key resistance zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Technical Outlook and Key Silver Levels The US dollar shrinking helps as well, so pay attention to that. But ultimately, we’re sitting right here at an area where you would expect to see a certain amount of support anyway, so it’s not a huge surprise. Whether or not we get momentum, that’s a completely different question.
But clearly, it looks like the selling has at least abated a bit for the short term, and this is the first step in trying to turn things around. Hesitation is a word I could use at the moment here.
Friday’s jobs number will loom large here. If we get an extraordinarily weak jobs number, traders may start to try to price in the idea that the Federal Reserve may not be able to tighten any further. And if that’s the case, things could get interesting here.
Sources: World Silver Survey 2026, Appendix 14, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute The rows add to 846.7 Moz against a stated total of 846.6 Moz, and the percentages to 99.9%, both from rounding in the survey’s own appendix.
Only 26.1% of the world’s mined silver comes from mines that exist to produce silver. The rest arrives as a credit alongside something else, and the largest single source is lead and zinc mines at 249.1 Moz. When a zinc mine decides how much ore to process, it is also deciding, without thinking about it, how much silver reaches the market that year.
That is why the price signal breaks. A higher silver price is supposed to bring out more supply. It cannot do much when nearly three quarters of the metal is produced by operators whose budgets, mine plans and board decisions all turn on the price of something else.
From Company Filings to a Global Data Series Until late August, that argument rested on individual company filings: a seismic event at a Swedish mine, an ore-mix change at a Peruvian one, a closure in Australia. All of it real, none of it adding up to a measurement of the whole market.
Then the International Lead and Zinc Study Group published its first-half 2026 data. World zinc mine production fell 2.6%. World lead mine production fell 3.0%. The two metals that between them account for the largest single source of byproduct silver fell together in the same six months, with the declines concentrated in the biggest producers and only partly offset by increases elsewhere.
Sources: ILZSG August 2026 press release | World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute The study group measures lead and zinc tonnage. It does not measure silver. The table above applies those percentage changes to last year’s silver base, which makes it a scenario rather than a measurement, and the midpoint is a plain average of the two rather than a silver-weighted figure. Silver grades vary between mines, and they do not always move with tonnage.
Boliden’s revised plan for Garpenberg shows why that caveat is needed. After a seismic event in March, 2026 guidance moved to 1.5 million tonnes milled at 100 grams of silver per tonne, from 3.7 million tonnes at 95 grams. Tonnage fell 59% while the silver grade guidance went up. The measured figure for 2026 arrives in next year’s survey, not this one, and I will record it in the Silver Catalyst when it does, whichever way it goes.
What This Means to Silver Investors On the supply side this is good for silver, and it is worth being precise about which part is good.
The mechanism now has better evidence behind it. Two mine supply series falling together, in the ore types that carry the most byproduct silver, is the first time this argument has rested on a primary global statistical release rather than on a run of company disclosures. A record-low negative treatment charge is a market price saying the same thing.
The scale is smaller than the headline suggests. Roughly 7 Moz annualised at the midpoint is 0.83% of the 844.1 Moz of mine supply that Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast for 2026. It does not break the market this year, and it should not be presented as though it does.
What it does change is the shape of the problem. The market is running into a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, forecast at 46.3 Moz for 2026 by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The ordinary way a shortage resolves is that a higher price pulls out more supply. This data shows why that route is partly closed: a higher silver price does not directly determine output at these lead and zinc operations, because none of the people running them is deciding anything based on it.
The honest counterweight is that Western inventories have not tightened. COMEX registered stock rose over the past month, London vaults built for a third consecutive month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July, and the September futures contract reached first notice day without visible stress. Whatever is happening in the ore is not yet showing up in the metal that Western buyers can touch. That gap is the thing to watch, and it is why the Convergence Score I publish in each issue records evidence against the argument in the same place as evidence for it. It did not move this time, for exactly that reason.
Byproduct dependency is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book for today.
Peru's Antamina produced 62% less zinc last quarter, not because the orebody ran out but because the mine plan called for copper, and the silver in that ore left with it.
That is the central problem with silver supply, visible in one mine. Nobody at Antamina decided to produce less silver. They decided to feed the mill a different rock, and 73.9% of the world's mined silver comes out of decisions like that one. On August 26 the International Lead and Zinc Study Group published data that puts a global figure on the metals silver rides along with.
Most silver is mined by companies that are not looking for silverStart with where silver actually comes from, because the split is not what most silver marketing implies.
Sources: World Silver Survey 2026, Appendix 14, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute
The rows add to 846.7 Moz against a stated total of 846.6 Moz, and the percentages to 99.9%, both from rounding in the survey's own appendix.
Only 26.1% of the world's mined silver comes from mines that exist to produce silver. The rest arrives as a credit alongside something else, and the largest single source is lead and zinc mines at 249.1 Moz. When a zinc mine decides how much ore to process, it is also deciding, without thinking about it, how much silver reaches the market that year.
That is why the price signal breaks. A higher silver price is supposed to bring out more supply. It cannot do much when nearly three quarters of the metal is produced by operators whose budgets, mine plans and board decisions all turn on the price of something else.
From company filings to a global data seriesUntil late August, that argument rested on individual company filings: a seismic event at a Swedish mine, an ore-mix change at a Peruvian one, a closure in Australia. All of it real, none of it adding up to a measurement of the whole market.
Then the International Lead and Zinc Study Group published its first-half 2026 data. World zinc mine production fell 2.6%. World lead mine production fell 3.0%. The two metals that between them account for the largest single source of byproduct silver fell together in the same six months, with the declines concentrated in the biggest producers and only partly offset by increases elsewhere.
Two details give that more weight than a single half-year print usually deserves.
The first is that it reverses direction. The same monthly series had recorded 1.1% growth through May, so this is a turn rather than a continuation. EBC, reading the same data, puts the largest zinc reductions at Antamina in Peru, Garpenberg in Sweden and Red Dog in the United States, with Australia's Lady Loretta closing at the end of 2025 removing more tonnage.
The second is a price. Spot treatment charges for imported zinc concentrate in China reached a record low near minus $117.50 a dry tonne in August, on Shanghai Metals Market's index, against an $85 annual benchmark. A treatment charge is what a smelter earns for turning ore into metal. When it goes negative, the smelter is paying the miner for the right to process the ore, and its margin then depends on byproducts including silver rather than on the fee itself. That is what a genuine shortage of concentrate looks like when it shows up in a number rather than in commentary.
What that is worth in ounces, and what it is notHere is the arithmetic, with a caution attached that matters as much as the figures.
Sources: ILZSG August 2026 press release | World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute
The study group measures lead and zinc tonnage. It does not measure silver. The table above applies those percentage changes to last year's silver base, which makes it a scenario rather than a measurement, and the midpoint is a plain average of the two rather than a silver-weighted figure. Silver grades vary between mines, and they do not always move with tonnage.
Boliden's revised plan for Garpenberg shows why that caveat is needed. After a seismic event in March, 2026 guidance moved to 1.5 million tonnes milled at 100 grams of silver per tonne, from 3.7 million tonnes at 95 grams. Tonnage fell 59% while the silver grade guidance went up. The measured figure for 2026 arrives in next year's survey, not this one, and I will record it in the Silver Catalyst when it does, whichever way it goes.
What this means to Silver investorsOn the supply side this is good for silver, and it is worth being precise about which part is good.
The mechanism now has better evidence behind it. Two mine supply series falling together, in the ore types that carry the most byproduct silver, is the first time this argument has rested on a primary global statistical release rather than on a run of company disclosures. A record-low negative treatment charge is a market price saying the same thing.
The scale is smaller than the headline suggests. Roughly 7 Moz annualised at the midpoint is 0.83% of the 844.1 Moz of mine supply that Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast for 2026. It does not break the market this year, and it should not be presented as though it does.
What it does change is the shape of the problem. The market is running into a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, forecast at 46.3 Moz for 2026 by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The ordinary way a shortage resolves is that a higher price pulls out more supply. This data shows why that route is partly closed: a higher silver price does not directly determine output at these lead and zinc operations, because none of the people running them is deciding anything based on it.
The honest counterweight is that Western inventories have not tightened. COMEX registered stock rose over the past month, London vaults built for a third consecutive month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July, and the September futures contract reached first notice day without visible stress. Whatever is happening in the ore is not yet showing up in the metal that Western buyers can touch. That gap is the thing to watch, and it is why the Convergence Score I publish in each issue records evidence against the argument in the same place as evidence for it. It did not move this time, for exactly that reason.
Byproduct dependency is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. If you've at least considered investing in silver, I strongly encourage you to sign up, because it takes just $1 to get both. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book for $1 today.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday, trading around $64.30 at the time of writing, up 0.32% on the day after recovering from earlier losses. The precious metal finds some support from weaker-than-expected United States (US) employment data, although elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to limit its upside.
The latest labor-market figures provide some relief for Silver. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report shows that the US private sector added 38K jobs in August, below market expectations of 47K and the previous increase of 46K. The softer reading adds to signs of cooling labor demand and could complicate the case for additional monetary tightening.
However, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain broadly hawkish. Markets see a roughly 64% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, compared with 36% a week earlier.
Higher rate expectations have pushed US Treasury yields sharply higher, creating a significant headwind for Silver as a non-yielding asset. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.81% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2023, before easing modestly.
At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East have driven Oil prices higher, adding another layer of uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Persistent energy-driven price pressures could encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for precious metals.
The US Dollar (USD) also remains supported by the prospect of higher interest rates, although disappointing employment figures prevent the Greenback from gaining stronger momentum.
Against this backdrop, Silver's rebound remains caught between weakening US labor-market signals and persistent expectations of tighter Fed policy. Investors will now turn their attention to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide further clues on the strength of the US labor market and reshape expectations for the Fed's September decision.
XAG/USD technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.36, retaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80. This configuration suggests the recent bounce is a correction within a broader downswing, with the cluster of moving averages above price reinforcing the cap on recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.75 sits just below the neutral line, hinting at easing downside pressure but not yet signaling a decisive shift in momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at $66.70, ahead of the horizontal barrier at $67.50, while the 100-hour SMA at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80 stack additional supply if bulls attempt a stronger rebound; a sustained move above these levels would be needed to alleviate the current bearish bias and expose the higher resistance at $71.12. On the downside, initial support is seen at $63.32, with further cushions at $62.19 and $60.87, where buyers would likely look to slow or halt any renewed decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.87 per troy ounce, down 0.35% from the $64.09 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 10.15% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.56 on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 67.54 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and rebounds to near $64.00 till the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as surging United States (US) Treasury yields due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets are hurting non-yielding assets.
During the day, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
Hawkish Fed bets accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Analysts at MUFG highlight that, while Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole on Friday, “the gist of his speech was similar to his previous speeches.” They note that he once again “talked tough on inflation” and underscored that if inflation does not decline at “sufficient speed” then the Fed still has “work to do,” reinforcing the perception that the policy bias remains tilted toward further tightening if disinflation stalls.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to hike interest rates if price pressures don’t moderate soon. Barr also warned, “Inflation remains too high.”
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. According to estimates, the US private sector created 48K fresh jobs, slightly higher than 44K in July.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.05. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.33, keeping the near-term tone mildly bearish as the failed attempt to sustain above recent highs leaves price capped by this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.72 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $65.33, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way back toward the recent peak zone. Looking up, the Silver price could advance further to the August high at $71.12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding Silver declines as a global bond selloff drove the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.80%, hitting its highest point since early 2025. This surge in yields reignited market anxieties surrounding stubborn inflation and the possibility of further interest rate increases.
Compounding these inflationary concerns, crude oil prices spiked due to intensifying geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which threatens energy supplies out of the Middle East. According to TD Securities, the latest flare-up between the US and Iran is reinforcing the sense that the regional backdrop remains highly unstable. Strategists there argue that the renewed tensions “continue to highlight how flimsy any deal or MoU headlines really are,” underscoring the market’s sensitivity to further disruptions and helping to sustain a risk premium across the energy complex.
Meanwhile, recent economic data from the United States offered a mixed picture for investors. July JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations, landing at 7.27 million. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in the previous month. While the PMI missed estimates, it stayed comfortably in expansion territory, indicating ongoing strength in the manufacturing domain. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's rate strategy.
Fed’s Barr keeps hawkish bias as inflation risks keep rate hike option alive Fed’s Barr delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 versus a 6.8/10 historical average, underscoring concern that inflation “remains too high” despite a stable labor market and “solid” AI-driven growth. The conditional guidance — favoring steady rates only if there is confidence inflation is moderating, but explicitly flagging a potential rate hike if it does not — reinforces an asymmetric reaction function tilted toward tightening. Overall, the tone signals a low tolerance for renewed price pressures and keeps upside risks for the Dollar intact.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.42 points to 128.86, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the immediate speech tone was only marginally above the established baseline in the FXS Speechtracker, the broader policy backdrop stays clearly hawkish, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still signaling a bias that supports the Dollar against lower-yielding currencies.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
In today’s blog we’re reviewing the $XAGUSD wave count shared with members, which highlighted a strong bullish outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirmed the move right at the extreme/high‑frequency zone, propelling prices sharply higher.
XAG/USD after completing major correction from all‑time highsSilver peaked earlier this year at 121.503 on January 29, 2026, before entering a six‑month corrective phase that concluded at 3940.68 on July 17, 2026. From that low, Silver rallied to complete wave (4) at 62.548, then turned higher, finishing wave 1 of a new nest. Price has since pulled back in a proposed wave 2, holding against the 62.548 pivot.
The forecast: Completion of wave ((iv)) correctionThe setup identified Silver at a decisive turning point following a corrective pullback from the peak near $67.84. After completing a multi‑wave bullish impulse into wave ((iii))/(v) above $67.00, price action unfolded into a corrective three‑wave (a)‑(b)‑(c) decline, designated as sub‑wave ((iv)).
The projected target zone for wave (c) of ((iv)) was between the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 63.211 and the 161.8% expansion at 61.144. The trade bias was clearly defined as “Turning Up”, with the explicit warning: “We Do Not Recommend Selling.” Traders were instructed to wait for the corrective wave to terminate within or near the target zone before initiating long positions.
The invalidation level was set at 56.614 (wave ((ii)) low), where a break below would negate the bullish structure. See below chart
The after analysisThe follow‑up chart confirms that the wave projection unfolded almost exactly as anticipated (Note: We had some degree adjustments). Wave C of (4) completed squarely within the target zone, bottoming at 62.548—just above the updated invalidation level—before buyers stepped in aggressively.
From the 62.548 floor, Silver launched into a clean 5‑wave micro‑impulse, driving price through $70.00 and topping at 70.739. With Wave 1 complete at 70.739, the market is now undergoing a minor corrective consolidation in Wave 2, proposed as a three‑swing structure, setting the stage for the next upside leg. See chart below
Comparative setup overviewBetween the August 19 “Before” forecast and the August 22 “After” execution, the market transitioned from the tail end of a Wave ((iv)) correction into a fully completed Wave 1 impulse. The initial setup targeted an entry zone between 63.211 and 61.144, which ultimately bottomed cleanly at 62.548.
As the primary trend resumed, the invalidation level was raised from 56.614 to 62.548 to lock in profit protection. The resulting rally drove price to a peak of 70.739, marking a +$8.19 / +13.1% rebound and fully validating the “Right Side” bullish bias.
What’s next for Silver in the coming weeks?As charts progress, the structures and labeling naturally evolve. At the time of writing, wave 2 is proposed to have ended as a flat correction and is now turning higher, with the invalidation level maintained at 62.548. As long as price holds above this pivot, Silver is expected to continue advancing to eventually complete wave (5) of higher degree within wave ((1)). From there, the market would be positioned for a corrective pullback in wave ((2)) against the July lows, before resuming the broader bullish cycle. See chart below
Industrial Demand and Key Technical Levels That being said, the World Silver Survey looks for industrial consumption to fall 3% in 2026, partially because of everything going on. And there have been some pundits out there marking down their longer-term forecast for the year to $68, such as major bank ING.
Ultimately, this is a market that is testing a couple of major moving averages, and if we were to break down below there, we could see a return to the $60 level. That’s an area that had been significant support previously. $70 still looks to be a bit resistant, and right now, we’re right in the middle of that with these moving averages.
Keep in mind the jobs report is on Friday, so the later we get into the week, the choppier and more sideways this could become, as we wait for that major news release.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Tuesday, trading around $64.85 at the time of writing, down 2.54% on the day. The white metal slips below the key $65.50 area as prospects of tighter US monetary policy continue to weigh on precious metals.
Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) have shifted significantly following Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The US central bank chief indicated that interest rates may need to rise if inflation fails to slow sufficiently, increasing pressure on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Rising energy prices add to inflation concerns. Tensions in the Middle East support Oil prices and fuel the risk of renewed price pressures, a scenario that could strengthen the case for a more restrictive Fed monetary policy.
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets now see more than a 65% chance of an interest rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. These expectations also help support the US Dollar (USD), creating an additional headwind for Silver.
Investors, however, remain cautious ahead of several US macroeconomic releases that could reshape these expectations. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August on Tuesday, while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is expected to provide fresh insights into US labor demand.
Attention will then turn to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The employment figures are likely to play an important role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s policy path ahead of its September meeting. Strong data could reinforce monetary tightening expectations and keep Silver under pressure, while clearer signs of labor market weakness could temper hawkish Fed bets.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Hello Traders, in today’s blog we’re reviewing the $XAGUSD wave count shared with members, which highlighted a strong bullish outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirmed the move right at the extreme/high‑frequency zone, propelling prices sharply higher.
XAGUSD After Completing Major Correction from All‑Time Highs
Silver peaked earlier this year at 121.503 on January 29, 2026, before entering a six‑month corrective phase that concluded at 3940.68 on July 17, 2026. From that low, Silver rallied to complete wave (4) at 62.548, then turned higher, finishing wave 1 of a new nest. Price has since pulled back in a proposed wave 2, holding against the 62.548 pivot.
The Forecast: Completion of Wave ((iv)) Correction
The setup identified Silver at a decisive turning point following a corrective pullback from the peak near $67.84. After completing a multi‑wave bullish impulse into wave ((iii))/(v) above $67.00, price action unfolded into a corrective three‑wave (a)‑(b)‑(c) decline, designated as sub‑wave ((iv)).
The projected target zone for wave (c) of ((iv)) was between the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 63.211 and the 161.8% expansion at 61.144. The trade bias was clearly defined as “Turning Up”, with the explicit warning: “We Do Not Recommend Selling.” Traders were instructed to wait for the corrective wave to terminate within or near the target zone before initiating long positions.
The invalidation level was set at 56.614 (wave ((ii)) low), where a break below would negate the bullish structure. See below chart
The After Analysis
The follow‑up chart confirms that the wave projection unfolded almost exactly as anticipated (Note: We had some degree adjustments). Wave C of (4) completed squarely within the target zone, bottoming at 62.548—just above the updated invalidation level—before buyers stepped in aggressively.
From the 62.548 floor, Silver launched into a clean 5‑wave micro‑impulse, driving price through $70.00 and topping at 70.739. With Wave 1 complete at 70.739, the market is now undergoing a minor corrective consolidation in Wave 2, proposed as a three‑swing structure, setting the stage for the next upside leg. See chart below
Comparative Setup Overview
Between the August 19 “Before” forecast and the August 22 “After” execution, the market transitioned from the tail end of a Wave ((iv)) correction into a fully completed Wave 1 impulse. The initial setup targeted an entry zone between 63.211 and 61.144, which ultimately bottomed cleanly at 62.548.
As the primary trend resumed, the invalidation level was raised from 56.614 to 62.548 to lock in profit protection. The resulting rally drove price to a peak of 70.739, marking a +$8.19 / +13.1% rebound and fully validating the “Right Side” bullish bias.
What’s Next for Silver in the Coming Weeks?
As charts progress, the structures and labeling naturally evolve. At the time of writing, wave 2 is proposed to have ended as a flat correction and is now turning higher, with the invalidation level maintained at 62.548. As long as price holds above this pivot, Silver is expected to continue advancing to eventually complete wave (5) of higher degree within wave ((1)). From there, the market would be positioned for a corrective pullback in wave ((2)) against the July lows, before resuming the broader bullish cycle. See chart below
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.76 per troy ounce, down 2.69% from the $66.55 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 8.90% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.55 on Tuesday, up from 66.84 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $66.67 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive at 55.2, lower than 55.6 in July. Meanwhile, fresh jobs posted by US employers are seen marginally lower at 7.3 million from 7.359 million in June. The Job Openings data is expected to have a meaningful influence on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Financial market experts see the August batch of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to drive Fed’s interest rate prospects significantly.
Fed hawkish tilt at Jackson Hole sets up data-driven September debateRabobank’s Elwin de Groot argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole appearance was calibrated to shift expectations ahead of the September meeting. In his view, “Warsh’s prepared remarks seemed designed to lift rate-hike expectations, rebalance the September debate towards the hawks and rebuild his inflation-fighting credibility after July’s ‘all talk, no action’ criticism.” However, Rabobank cautions that this strategy “creates a difficult balancing act, as the White House may oppose a hike so close to November’s midterms.”
Even so, de Groot highlights that “Warsh delivered an important signal: the Fed is not relying on tighter financial conditions alone and remains willing to tighten further if underlying inflation stalls.” Against that backdrop, Rabobank judges that “the next round of data – especially the 4 September employment report and 11 September CPI – could therefore prove crucial for the Committee’s swing voters,” potentially determining whether the hawkish messaging translates into actual policy action.
On the geopolitical front, higher oil prices due to the restart of the Middle East war could act as a major headwind for the Silver price. The WTI Oil price jumped to near $85.85 in the Asian session on Tuesday, the highest level in over a week.
Higher energy prices prompt fears of accelerating global inflation expectations, a scenario that forces investors to ramp up hawkish central banks’ bets. This bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.59. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it advances above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which comes in at $65.71 and now acts as underlying demand.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.05 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting steady, rather than aggressive, buying pressure as price consolidates above its short-term trend marker.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $65.71, with the August 9 low at $62.19 acting as the next major cushion. Looking up, the white metal needs a decisive breakout above the June 17 high at $71.56 to extend the advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver tests $65.67 and its 20-day average after a 29.5% rebound. Holding support keeps the uptrend intact, with resistance clustered near $71.56–$72.44.
In this article:Silver
+0.28%
Silver Forecast20-Day Average Becomes Near-Term Pivot Silver declined to a lower daily low of $65.67 on Monday, as it tested support near the 20-day moving average for the first time since that average was reclaimed in early August. The decline completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing at $65.85, reinforcing the support zone. The confluence of those two support levels is further reinforced by a small former resistance range from earlier in August that now occupies the same area.
Those overlapping levels create a well-defined zone that bulls will want to defend if the mid-July reversal is to remain valid. Whether a recovery follows Monday’s low or not, silver has reached a key near-term pivot. A sustained decline below the 20-day moving average would suggest further downside pressure, while staying above it would continue to support the integrity of the developing uptrend.
Spot silver daily chart shows pullback to 20-day moving average. Source: TradingView Two Scenarios After 29% Rebound Although a break below the 20-day moving average would be a sign of weakening, it could lead to further downside or to a relatively quick recovery. That is why multiple levels are watched and why signals need additional confirmation. Two basic scenarios may unfold from here, each with its own variations. On one hand, silver has been showing signs of a bullish reversal of the short-term downtrend since the second half of July.
As of the rally high of $71.18, it was up by as much as 29.5% from the $54.78 low reached in mid-July. Was there any significance to that resistance zone that would suggest it was only a temporary stop on the way to higher targets, or that it completed the current advance?
Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView 200-Day Cluster Still Overhead The answer to that question is that the resistance zone may be significant, since it is highlighted by three indicators. There is a prior lower swing high at $71.56, a 50% retracement of a prior downswing at $72.08, and the 200-day moving average near $72.44 and rising. Either the area around the 200-day moving average can be further tested before support at the 20-day moving average fails, or further signs of strength may follow Monday’s low, generating a higher swing low and another leg up in the uptrend.
Traders will watch price action around Monday’s low and the 20-day moving average for confirmation of the next swing. In that way, the test of the 20-day moving average that opened this week also closes the near-term question: whether the advance that began from the mid-July low remains intact.
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With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.
Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is still in the price. He said Friday the central bank has more work to do on inflation and left a September rate increase on the table. The dollar firmed Monday. Treasury yields climbed. Silver was already under pressure from Friday’s reversal and Warsh gave sellers another reason to lean on the market.
Oil jumped Monday after reports of fresh U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Silver traders already know what higher crude does to the inflation outlook. That is not a headline the metal can ignore when the Fed is already watching prices. The combination kept silver on the defensive for most of the session. Prices ran from $67.47 to $65.67 in a few hours as the rate story and the oil story both worked against the metal at the same time.
The late bounce off the lows took the worst of the damage out but the daily close is still red. Silver went from $65.67 back to $66.11 by late afternoon. That stopped the bleeding from Friday. It did not reverse it.
Factory Demand Held the Floor Physical demand from factories and solar-panel makers did not disappear because Warsh gave a speech. That bid is the reason silver found buyers near $65.67 instead of breaking through. Dealers noted that inventories have not flooded the market. When the first wave of selling exhausted itself Monday afternoon, there was enough demand underneath to catch the metal.
The recovery was not aggressive. A move from $65.67 to $66.11 is stabilization, not a reversal. But after a 4% Friday and a full day of selling pressure Monday, holding that low was the minimum the demand side needed to deliver. The month is still up 14%. The year is still up more than 60%. Nobody ran for the exits at $65.67 and that tells you something about how the physical market is reading this pullback.
Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Monday, caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, leaving the metal without clear direction after tumbling 4.11% on Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.25, down 0.23% on the day.
Warsh's inflation-focused remarks at Jackson Hole initially pushed the US Dollar to over one-week highs, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing as high as 99.72, as traders revived bets on a September rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at next month's meeting. The Greenback has since retraced most of those gains on Monday, with the DXY trading around 99.44 at the time of writing.
From a technical perspective, the latest leg lower has pushed XAG/USD back below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), tilting the near-term bias to bearish, though the metal still holds above the 50-day SMA at $61 and a Fibonacci support band between $60.97 (61.8% retracement) and $64.79 (38.2% level).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 53 remains in neutral territory, having eased from above 60, suggesting bullish momentum is starting to fade while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers near the zero line with a flattened profile, hinting at a consolidative phase before the next directional move.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.16, followed closely by the 100-day SMA near $68, where a sustained break would open the way toward the Fibonacci structural anchor at $70.99 and ultimately the 200-day SMA at $72.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $64.79, with deeper demand located at the 50% level at $62.88 and the 61.8% retracement at $60.97, while the 50-day SMA at $61 reinforces this broader demand zone on any extended pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.10%-0.24%-0.35%-0.01%-0.09%-0.18%EUR0.29%0.18%0.06%-0.03%0.23%0.22%0.11%GBP0.10%-0.18%-0.11%-0.24%0.05%0.03%-0.04%JPY0.24%-0.06%0.11%-0.12%0.22%0.17%0.08%CAD0.35%0.03%0.24%0.12%0.35%0.29%0.19%AUD0.01%-0.23%-0.05%-0.22%-0.35%-0.04%-0.09%NZD0.09%-0.22%-0.03%-0.17%-0.29%0.04%-0.08%CHF0.18%-0.11%0.04%-0.08%-0.19%0.09%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver trades at 68.09, pushing above the converging 50 and 200 EMAs around 65 and approaching the 70.00 resistance level, with support at 60.00. Source: TradingView. The silver market fell pretty significantly right off the bat on Monday, but has turned around as we bounced basically from the 200-day EMA. The question now will be whether or not we are actually seeing some type of an attempt to turn things around, or are we just simply going back and forth trying to get a read on whether or not market participants are going to continue to be bearish like they were during the Friday session after Kevin Warsh basically stated that the Federal Reserve very well could end up hiking in the future, certainly aren’t cutting. That really rocked the markets and sent interest rates in America higher, and silver does tend to be sensitive to interest rates. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
Technical Levels and Market Drivers Bouncing from the 200-day EMA will give solace to technical traders, and therefore it’s probably worth watching this area. But as things stand right now, this is a market that is at a major point of inflection, the $70 region. And if we can get back above there, I would suggest that perhaps that’s very positive. Breaking the top of the Friday candlestick most certainly would attract a lot of attention from traders, and more likely than not be willing to perhaps step on the gas, a little bit of FOMO trading at that point.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Monday and trades around $66.70 at the time of writing, up 0.40% on the day. The main obstacle to a stronger recovery in Silver remains the shift in expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stressing that policymakers still have “work to do” if underlying inflationary pressures fail to ease sufficiently.
These comments prompted investors to significantly raise expectations for monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see around a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the September meeting, compared with roughly 35% before Warsh’s speech. The prospect of higher interest rates for longer could weigh on Silver, which offers no yield.
The white metal nevertheless benefits from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), helping support Monday’s rebound. After strengthening on Friday as markets reassessed the Fed’s rate outlook, the Greenback loses some momentum, providing some relief to precious metals denominated in US Dollars.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also provide support to Silver by boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The United States (US) and Iran exchange fresh strikes after more than a month of a fragile truce. US forces attacked Iranian facilities on Larak Island on Sunday, while Tehran subsequently said it had targeted US military facilities in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The escalation, however, has a mixed impact on Silver. Higher Oil prices amid mounting tensions in the Middle East increase inflation risks and could reinforce the Fed’s case for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance, which is a negative factor for non-yielding metals.
Attention now turns to upcoming US economic data, including the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys and Friday’s August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Persistent signs of weakness in the labor market could temper expectations for higher interest rates and support Silver, while strong data or renewed inflationary pressures could reinforce the case for monetary tightening in September.
US data in focus as Fed shifts gaze from jobs to inflationAnalysts at Rabobank highlight a busy US data slate, starting with the July JOLTS report. They note that “normally not a market mover, it could nevertheless shed more light on the recent slowdown in job growth,” offering additional context ahead of the main labour-market release later in the week.
Turning to activity indicators, Rabobank points out that “only a small fall in the US ISM manufacturing survey for August (as per the consensus) could be interpreted by the market as a sign that US, as well as global, manufacturing activity is recovering despite ongoing concerns over tensions in the Middle East.”
The bank underscores that “the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures are the highlight of the day,” with “the street forecasts net job creation of 55,000 in August, following an unexpected dip in July.” However, they caution that “although the jobs report is always a market mover, Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole suggest the Fed’s focus is now on the near-term path for inflation rather than the labour market,” potentially tempering the policy implications of any surprise in the headline numbers.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The non-yielding Silver declined following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh said on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers will "have work to do" if they were not confident cost-of-living pressures were easing for Americans. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” he added.
Moreover, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be made on September 15-16. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 57.5% odds of at least 25 basis points (bps) next month, up from 35% before Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.
Silver also remained pressured by higher oil prices after Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island.
The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table.
However, TD Securities cited that the backdrop for precious metals has improved as investors reassessd the policy stance of the Fed and the outlook for the Dollar. Strategists note that, "beyond the Fed's willingness to look past an energy-driven inflation shock, the re-ignition of the dollar debasement theme has also fueled renewed macro discretionary appetite in precious metals," helping to draw fresh interest into the complex.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) continues its struggle to make it through the $70.00 psychological mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. The white metal slides to the mid-$67.00s during the first half of the European session, though the technical setup warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from a two-month high, touched last Friday.
The XAG/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias following last week's breakout above the $66.55-$66.60 horizontal resistance. Moreover, the white metal holds well above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that the broader uptrend is still intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing back toward the neutral 50 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping into negative territory, hinting at waning upside pressure rather than a completed reversal.
On the downside, immediate support aligns with the $67.00 mark ahead of the $66.60-$66.55 resistance breakpoint, where buyers have recently attempted to stabilize the pullback. A deeper slide would expose the 200-period SMA at $61.30 as the next relevant technical floor, where the broader bullish structure would likely be reassessed if broken decisively.
On the top side, bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above the $70.00 mark before positioning for any further gains towards the $71.00 round figure and the $71.55 hurdle. A sustained move beyond should pave the way for additional gains beyond the $72.00 mark, towards the $72.55 intermediate resistance en route to $73.00 and the $73.40 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $67.82 per troy ounce, down 0.97% from the $68.48 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 4.59% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.23 on Tuesday, up from 67.93 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.6% to near $67.87 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal is under pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
Investors will pay close attention to the US core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Fed’s preferred gauge seen staying in strike zone as US spending cools
According to TD Securities, July’s inflation data should keep the Fed’s preferred gauge comfortably aligned with its objectives, with analysts expecting that "core PCE inflation is expected to hit the Fed's strike zone for a second consecutive report in July, despite picking up to 0.24% m/m." They anticipate that "headline prices likely rose by a tamer 0.15%," while stressing that "more importantly, we expect the market-based core PCE to stay contained at 0.13% m/m." On the activity side, TD highlights that "weak retail sales data point to slowing in consumer spending to 0.2% m/m in July and a softer 0.1% in real terms," and, looking further ahead, notes that "we look for gradual disinflation to resume in 2027."
According to the FX Economic Calendar, the annualized core PCE inflation is expected to have grown at a steady pace of 3.4%.
Higher inflationary pressures prompt fears of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
This week, the major trigger for the Silver price will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at theJackson Hole Symposium on Thursday. Historically, Warsh is known to avoid providing “forward guidance” on interest rates, but will likely warn of upside inflation risks.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $67.87, maintaining a bullish near-term tone as price holds decisively above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64.64.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 61.7, staying in positive territory and suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive even after the latest consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $64.64 area where the 20-day EMA aligns as the first significant demand zone, with any deeper pullback likely viewed as corrective while price holds above this moving average. On the upside, the white metal needs to break above the August 21 high near $70 to extend the rally towards the June 15 high at $71.33, followed by the June high at 77.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price reverses course on Monday, down 0.59% as buyers failed to push the white metal past the $70.00, which exacerbated a reversal, to the first support level seen at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.42. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $68.52, afer peaking at $69.92.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookSilver’s uptrend remains intact, despite retreating to the 100-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though buyers lost some momentum in the short term.
XAG’s market structure of higher highs and higher lows suggests further upside, but bulls must reclaim the $70.00 milestone before setting their sights on the 200-day SMA at $72.13. In that outcome, the next resistance is the May 25 cycle high at $78.83.
On the downside, XAG/USD's initial support is at the 100-day SMA at $68.42. If it breaks, the next level is the August 20 low of $65.64, then the August 19 swing low of $62.19, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.34.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
XAG/USD daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
