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Spot silver (XAGUSD) is edging lower late in the session on Friday, but a little off its intraday low and lowest level since November 25, 2025. The catalyst behind today’s weakness is higher energy prices. They are fueling persistent inflation concerns while reinforcing U.S. rate hike expectations ahead of the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

At 18:57 GMT, Spot Silver is trading $53.99, down $0.60 or -1.10%. The low of the session is $53.03. The high is $54.75. Additionally, it is currently down over 5% for the week.

Rising Crude is the Major Issue
International benchmark Brent crude oil reached a five-month high early Friday and that seems to be all silver traders needed to cap gains and keep the precious metal under pressure. Essentially, it was Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia that generated increasing concerns over a further disruption to energy supplies.

Because inflation is still a major headache, the major central banks won’t be able to cut interest rates or ease up on monetary policy as quickly as they’d like. Right now, that’s a tough hurdle for silver investors hoping for a rally.

Silver is also being impacted by the sharp sell-off in the global equity markets. Weakness in leveraged positions in volatile technology stocks is leading to margin calls, which is forcing some hedge funds to sell silver to meet the margin call.

Switching back to the rate hike concerns, the market now largely expects the Federal Reserve to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting, but December is still a major worry. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 92% chance of the Fed leaving rates where they currently are and a 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due to be released on October 29. It could offer further insight as to the state of inflation. It will be released shortly before the Fed concludes its policy meeting so it may have an impact on its decision. Earlier in the month, stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer and producer inflation numbers supported the case for tighter monetary policy later this year.

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Weekly Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Weekly Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Spot silver is set to finish sharply lower this week.

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $71.18 will change the main trend to up. Taking out this week’s low at $53.03 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The market is currently trading inside a long-term retracement zone at $60.835 to $46.48. To some investors, this area represents value.

Spot silver is also trading on the bearish side of the 52-week moving average at $68.99.

The primary driver of my downside bias on the weekly chart is the market’s relative position to the 52-week moving average. The trading action since July, however, is showing signs that some investors are recognizing the importance of the $60.835 to $46.48 retracement zone. Overcoming $60.835 will weaken my bearish outlook. The major target zone on the weekly chart is $46.48 to $45.55. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could re-emerge on a test of this area.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Spot silver is lower on Friday, but recovering from early session selling. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $53.03 signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will turn up on a move through the last main top at $61.46. This will put it on the strong side of the long-term 50% level at $60.835 and on the weak side of the 50-day moving average at $63.11.

My bias is to the downside. It is supported by the downtrend on the swing chart and the persistent trade on the bearish side of the 50-day moving average. XAGUSD is currently trading inside a major value area defined by $60.835 to $46.48. Despite the downtrend, value buyers can step in at any time to produce counter-trend short-covering rallies. However, they are not likely to be a concern for short-sellers until they overcome the long-term 50% level at $60.835 and the 50-day moving average at $63.11.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver breaks below critical $55 support as selling pressure accelerates, putting $50 in focus despite modest improvements in U.S. manufacturing.

Silver currently has a bit of a mixed fundamental backdrop. The latest U.S. industrial figures provide some evidence of continued expansion, but the improvement is not broad or powerful enough to justify an unqualified industrial-demand-boom type of narrative.

At the same time, positive real yields keep opportunity costs attached to holding a precious metal that pays no income. The Federal Reserve’s October 16 industrial production release showed manufacturing output increasing 0.3% in September after a 0.2% decline in August. Manufacturing was 1.1% above its year-earlier level.

Overall industrial production rose 0.7% in September, with utilities increasing 3.5% and mining rising 0.2%. The distinction between headline and manufacturing matters for silver. A strong utility reading can lift total industrial output without implying an increase in metal-intensive factory activity.

Manufacturing’s improvement is encouraging, but a modest rebound after a decline is much different than accelerating expansion. The manufacturing index reached 98.4 in September on a 2017=100 basis. This matches July’s reported level. April and May were both 98.1. September is still preliminary, while earlier observations incorporate all revisions.

The chart below illustrates gradual, uneven progress in broad U.S. factory output. The industrial evidence offers some support while limiting the strength of the bullish claim. Better factory activity could improve the environment for industrial metals, but the amount of silver used depends on the mix of goods produced. A broad production index doesn’t give us all of the answers.

U.S. manufacturing output rose to an index reading of 98.40 in September, recovering from 98.20 in August and matching July’s level. This also explains why longer-term stories about electrical applications or solar power should be handled carefully in a daily report. A structural use case does not establish that orders increase this week. Without fresh official in-use figures, most of this is conjecture at the moment.

The Monetary Side Is Important as Usual The Federal Reserve’s October 22 H.15 release put the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield at 2.76% on October 21. The September 16 policy decision that raised the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4% is still fresh in the minds of traders as well.

For silver, tight financing conditions can operate through both investor demand and industrial activity. Higher returns on interest-bearing assets such as bonds make holding metal less attractive. More expensive credit can also affect how manufacturers behave and their willingness to expand capacity or carry inventories.

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See all Silver forecasts Silver also tends to respond differently to different types of economic weakness. Softer data that reduce expected policy restraint might help its monetary appeal if it seems as if the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. If the same data implies a substantial deterioration in industrial demand, that could be a bit of an offset.

The next FOMC meeting is October 27 and 28 and could be a catalyst. The useful question will be not so much what they do, but what they say. There is no expected interest-rate hike for the meeting, although traders still believe that December is very much live.

A cautiously constructive industrial reading doesn’t seem to be helping the silver market, though, as we have in fact dropped below the crucial $55 level. The $55 level has a lot of market memory attached to it and was, in fact, the bottom of the recent consolidation area.

The Setup

Silver futures trade near 53.94, falling below the 55.00 support level and remaining beneath the moving average at 61.63. At this point, it looks like the selling pressure in silver is accelerating, and short-term rallies will certainly be appealing to those looking to fade all of those positive moves. The next major support level is closer to the $50 level, just as the $55 level, based on market memory, could very well end up being resistance.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Key Points:Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% as energy-driven inflation revives rate fears, and investors looking for safety buy Treasuries instead of bullion.Gold trades near $4,015 after breaking below the $4,075 October floor, with the $3,946 to $3,963 zone as the next support and $3,890 in view if it gives way.The Fed is expected to hold on October 27-28, but CME FedWatch shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December, keeping policy the main headwind.Silver trades near $54.05 in a falling channel after a fresh low near $53.43. A close below $53.46 opens $52.41 and $51.39, while $55.77 caps any rebound.Gold Loses Its Haven Bid as Oil Shock Revives Rate Fears Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% after falling to its lowest level since July 20. This time, the Middle East conflict is working against the metal. Energy-driven inflation is outweighing its safe-haven appeal, and investors looking for safety are buying Treasuries instead.

Gold: Inflation Fears Trump Haven Demand Gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday after the New York Times reported that the US and Israel are preparing a short but intense military operation against Iran after the midterm elections, possibly targeting its energy infrastructure. Instead of lifting bullion, the report revived concerns that higher energy prices would keep US rates elevated, RTTNews said.

The flight to safety went to bonds. Worries about the funding needs of AI hit tech stocks and sparked the biggest one-day rally in Treasuries in more than three years, with the 10-year yield falling more than 19 basis points, Reuters reported. Lower yields usually help gold, because the metal pays no interest and holding it costs less when bond returns fall. This time gold failed to attract any haven demand, which shows how heavily inflation worries are weighing on the metal.

That is why policy expectations remain the main headwind. The Fed is widely expected to hold at its October 27-28 meeting after hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data, but CME’s FedWatch tool shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December.

Silver: Hit From Both Sides Silver has fallen more sharply than gold and is down about 10% in October. Because it is both an investment metal and an industrial input, it is exposed to tighter monetary policy and to the growth risks of an energy shock, Business Today noted. Higher crude costs raise the risk of persistent inflation, and they also threaten the manufacturing demand behind silver’s industrial base.

What Comes Next Next week brings the Fed decision on October 28 and the September PCE inflation data on October 29. Both will show whether the energy-driven rate premium keeps pressure on the two metals.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Breaks Below $4,075 as $3,946 Comes Into Focus

Gold Price Chart Gold is trading near $4,015 on the 4-hour chart after a clean break below $4,075, a floor that had held all month. A falling trendline has capped every rally since late August, and price is now below both moving averages, so sellers remain in control.

The next support is the $3,946 to $3,963 zone, last tested in July. If that zone breaks, the way opens toward $3,890. On the upside, $4,075 is now the first resistance.

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Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts RSI is near 26, deep in oversold territory, so a short bounce would not surprise me. Even so, I lean bearish while gold stays below $4,075. A recovery above that level would ease the pressure, while a close below $3,946 would strengthen the selling case.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Slides to $53.46 Inside a Bearish Channel

Silver Price Chart Silver is trading near $54.05 on the 4-hour chart, inside the falling channel that has guided prices lower since September. The latest rejection came near $58.09 at the top of the channel, and the drop that followed took silver to a fresh low near $53.43, just under the $53.46 support, before a small bounce.

If $53.46 gives way on a closing basis, $52.41 and then $51.39 come into play. On the upside, silver needs to clear $54.53 first, then $55.77.

RSI is near 28, so silver is also oversold and a relief bounce is possible. In my view, the bias stays bearish while silver trades below $55.77. A move above that level would ease the pressure, and a close below $53.46 would point to further losses.

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Trading conditions continue to be challenging for silver in the short term. The precious metal has been losing value at an accelerated pace and, during today's session alone, has fallen more than 5.5%, reaching new lows for 2026. This development highlights how selling pressure has become increasingly dominant across recent market activity.

For now, this weakness appears to be driven mainly by a lack of confidence in demand and by silver's inability to establish itself as an attractive alternative to other markets. Although some competing assets, such as bonds, have begun to lose part of their appeal, silver has failed to attract capital flows in a consistent manner. At the same time, inflation expectations and the view that interest rates may remain higher for longer continue to favor other asset classes, reducing the appeal of the precious metal. As long as this rotation of capital toward alternative markets persists, selling pressure on XAG/USD could remain relevant in the sessions ahead.

Is Confidence in the Silver Market Beginning to Fade?
One of the most important developments in recent sessions has been the behavior of the U.S. bond market. A few weeks ago, it was evident that rising 10-year Treasury yields were accompanied by weaker demand for silver. As the attractiveness of these instruments increased, precious metals found it increasingly difficult to attract capital flows.

However, this relationship has started to change. U.S. Treasury yields have entered a meaningful moderation phase and are now trading below the 5.0% area, moving away from the highs recorded earlier this year. What is particularly interesting is that, despite this loss of relative attractiveness within the bond market, silver has failed to respond positively and has instead continued to deepen its decline.

This situation may point to two different scenarios. First, capital flows could be shifting toward other markets currently perceived as more attractive. Second, lower yields may also reflect stronger demand for bonds themselves, since bond yields tend to decline when bond prices rise. Both scenarios lead to the same conclusion: silver is struggling to establish itself as a relevant safe-haven alternative, even as the bond market loses part of its appeal.

Source: TradingEconomics

Another important factor involves the growing relevance of inflation-related risks. Part of this concern stems from the oil market, where WTI crude oil continues to trade near the $100 per barrel area, reinforcing concerns that energy costs may remain elevated.

What stands out is that silver is not benefiting from this environment. Traditionally, higher inflation risks could be expected to support some precious metals. However, the current market reaction is different. While silver continues to lose ground, assets such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average remain resilient and continue to trade above the 52,000-point level.

This suggests that a portion of capital flows is finding greater appeal in other market segments. In addition, silver faces an extra challenge due to its significant industrial component. Expectations of persistently higher inflation could also raise concerns about a potential slowdown in industrial demand over the coming months, creating an additional headwind for the metal.

Source: TradingEconomics

Taking all of this into account, the weakness currently observed in silver appears to be the result of several factors that have increased the attractiveness of alternative markets. The metal has struggled to regain credibility both as a safe-haven asset and as a compelling risk alternative, even while some competing markets have started to lose momentum. As a result, capital flows continue to favor other assets viewed as more attractive in the current environment. Unless silver manages to rebuild investor confidence, selling pressure could remain a dominant feature of XAG/USD in the sessions ahead.

Silver Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The bearish trendline continues to gain relevance: Since the beginning of 2026, silver has developed a relatively consistent bearish structure that allowed the formation of an important long-term downward trendline. The recent acceleration of losses has reinforced this structure even further and, as long as sellers remain in control, the broader downtrend is likely to remain the dominant technical reference over the coming weeks. However, the speed of the decline is becoming increasingly pronounced, which could also create room for short-term bullish corrections.

 
TRIX: The TRIX indicator continues to trade below the 0 neutral level, reflecting persistent bearish momentum in long-term exponential moving averages. As long as this dynamic remains in place, the bearish bias could continue to dominate the broader market outlook.

 
RSI: The RSI presents a similar picture, remaining below the 50 neutral zone. However, the indicator is also moving closer to the 30 oversold level, a development that may indicate an excessive buildup of recent selling pressure and could open the door to short-term corrective rebounds.

 
Key Levels to Watch:

$62 – Key Resistance: This level aligns with the long-term bearish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. Sustained moves above this area could challenge the dominant bearish structure and support a more neutral market environment.

 
$58 – Near-Term Barrier: An important retracement zone observed in recent weeks that could become the primary level to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.

 
$54 – Critical Support: A support area not seen since November 2025 that now stands as the most important downside barrier on the chart. A sustained break below this level could significantly reinforce bearish control and support a further extension of the prevailing downtrend over the coming weeks.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

U.S. manufacturing output rebounded to 98.4 in September from 98.2 in August, matching July’s level and remaining above April’s 98.1.
Broad Manufacturing Cannot Tell the Whole Story
Silver is used across several industrial applications, which is why the broad manufacturing index alone doesn’t measure direct silver consumption. Stronger factory output does not establish how much metal was purchased, which technologies accounted for demand, or whether inventories were accumulated. It’s a bit premature to turn an improvement in aggregate activity into an estimate of additional silver demand.

At This Point, the Monetary Side Is Probably the Main Driver
The Treasury’s 10-year real par yield eased to 2.76% yesterday from 2.77% the day before. The 2-year nominal par yield instead increased to 4.81% from 4.79% the previous session. A small reduction in longer-term inflation-adjusted opportunity costs alongside firmer short-maturity nominal financing conditions offers a bit of a mixed signal.

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This contrast can produce a less straightforward response than an inflation-hedge narrative might suggest. Lower real yields could support precious-metal demand, but high borrowing costs can restrain working capital, capital spending, and inventory financing. Silver can consequently be influenced by both monetary expectations, especially coming out of the Federal Reserve, and changes in manufacturing confidence.

PPI Report Last Week
The BLS reported September final-demand PPI last week, rising 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.5% monthly and 5% annually. Separately, the CPI release last week put September headline consumer inflation at 3.7% annually. These measures cover different stages of economic pricing and are not interchangeable, though.

Silver sees elevated producer costs having conflicting implications. It can strengthen interest in monetary protection, but at the same time, it can also squeeze manufacturers’ margins and reduce the appeal of holding costly materials such as silver or gold. The effect depends on whether businesses can pass through costs and whether final demand remains resilient.

TL;DR: Silver has dropped roughly 2.8% to 56.32, sharply underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-driven tightening concerns. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 level back into focus.

Why This Matters
Silver is falling as escalating security risks in Saudi Arabia keep oil prices elevated and renew concerns about inflation-driven monetary tightening. Brent is trading around $110.84 following attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a further decline in US crude inventories, while silver has dropped approximately 2.8% to 56.32, substantially underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline. The divergence suggests that inflation and interest-rate concerns are weighing more heavily on precious metals than any immediate safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainty.

Technically, silver’s recovery from 55.37 may have ended at 58.60, leaving the metal vulnerable to another decline toward its recent low. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 area back into focus. The rising Gold/Silver ratio provides additional evidence of silver’s relative weakness, although a sustained breakdown remains unconfirmed.

Saudi Escalation Keeps Oil and Inflation Risks Elevated
Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure have heightened concerns about the security of Middle East energy supplies. On Wednesday, Saudi air defenses intercepted a drone targeting Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield, with falling debris killing two people and injuring two others. Saudi authorities said operations were unaffected. The US State Department also ordered non-emergency government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid increasing attacks on civilian airports and critical infrastructure. These developments have raised the perceived risk of future supply disruptions, even though no production loss was reported at Shaybah.

Brent crude remained elevated near $110, while US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories falling by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ending October 16. The combination of geopolitical supply risks and tighter inventories is helping sustain oil prices, reinforcing concerns that elevated energy costs could prolong inflation pressures. That, in turn, raises the risk that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, or tighten further if inflation proves persistent. However, a fresh increase in market-implied Fed hike probabilities has not been established, and Brent has yet to confirm a sustained closing breakout above the 109.97 technical reference level.

Why Is Silver Underperforming Gold Despite a Subdued Dollar Backdrop?
Silver’s renewed decline is notable because the earlier Dollar and Treasury-yield backdrop offered little fresh direction. Dollar Index was hovering around 101.7, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.11%, broadly unchanged. Silver had consequently spent much of the previous week fluctuating between approximately 55.37 and 58.60. The latest geopolitical developments have introduced another potential source of pressure through oil prices and the inflation outlook, even without a decisive accompanying rise in Dollar or Treasury yields.

Silver is also underperforming gold by a substantial margin. Gold declined around 1.2% toward 4,091 in the supplied market snapshot, compared with silver’s 2.8% fall toward 56.32. Silver’s combination of precious-metal and industrial characteristics leaves it exposed not only to higher interest-rate expectations but also to concerns that elevated energy costs and tighter financial conditions could restrain economic activity. The Gold/Silver ratio has consequently risen toward 72.6, reflecting a clear deterioration in silver’s relative performance. The divergence is consistent with inflation and growth concerns outweighing any immediate safe-haven benefit from the escalation.

Positioning Offers Limited Support, but Capitulation Is Unconfirmed
Speculative positioning had already weakened before the latest selloff. CFTC data indicate that managed-money net longs in COMEX silver futures declined steadily through October:

Mid-September: ~13,100 contracts
Early October: ~7,500 contracts
October 13: ~5,600 contracts

The reduction suggests that speculative exposure was relatively light even before silver’s sharp decline on October 14, potentially limiting the extent of further liquidation from previously crowded long positions.

However, the positioning figures predate that decline and cannot establish whether additional long liquidation or short selling has subsequently occurred. The next CFTC report should provide a clearer picture of how speculative investors responded. Available inventory figures also offer insufficient evidence of an acute physical-market shortage capable of offsetting the prevailing selling pressure. For now, positioning provides context for the decline rather than a convincing argument that silver has reached a durable bottom.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Silver, 55.37 and 54.77 Guard Against a Fall Toward $50
Silver’s recovery from 55.37 stalled at 58.60 after encountering resistance around the 55 4H EMA. The subsequent decline supports the possibility that the rebound was corrective and has already completed. Near-term bias therefore favors another test of 55.37, particularly while silver remains below the four-hour moving average, currently around 58.14.

A decisive break below 55.37 would expose the 61.8% projection of 61.44 to 55.37 from 58.60 at approximately 54.85. This lies close to the more important daily support at 54.77, making the area a critical test of the broader bearish scenario. A firm break through this support cluster would open the way toward the 100% projection at 52.53.

More importantly, a sustained daily break below 54.77 would strengthen the case for an extension of the medium term down trend toward the 61.8% projection of 89.36 to 54.77 from 71.17 at 49.78, near the psychological $50 level.

Nevertheless, the larger downside scenario remains conditional. Silver has not yet broken 55.37, and the 54.85–54.77 support cluster could still attract buying interest. A recovery above the four-hour 55 EMA would weaken immediate selling pressure, while a sustained break above 58.60 would invalidate the interpretation that the latest rebound has completed.

Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio’s renewed advance is adding to the bearish case for silver, with its own technical structure pointing to potential further relative weakness.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Gold/Silver Ratio, Rebound Raises Risk of Further Silver Underperformance
The Gold/Silver ratio’s pullback from 74.14 appears to have found support at 70.91, near the rising four-hour trend line and 55 4H EMA. The subsequent rebound toward 72.6 suggests that the correction could have ended, preserving the broader bullish structure established since the September low at 64.65. A further advance toward 74.14 is favored while the trend-line support holds.

A sustained break above 74.14 would indicate resumption of the larger advance, opening the way toward the 61.8% projection around 76.9–76.95 on the daily chart. Such a move would signal further silver underperformance relative to gold and reinforce the bearish silver outlook, particularly if accompanied by a decisive break below 55.37.

For now, the combination of elevated oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and deteriorating relative performance leaves silver vulnerable to another downward leg. However, a move toward $50 requires confirmation through the 55.37 and 54.77 support levels, rather than being an established outcome of the current decline.

Key Takeaways

Silver has dropped ~2.8% to 56.32, far underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed Saudi infrastructure attacks keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-tightening fears.
CFTC positioning shows managed-money net longs in silver futures already shrinking before the selloff (13,100 → 7,500 → 5,600 contracts from mid-September to October 13), which could limit further long liquidation.
The Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 72.6, with a sustained break above 74.14 signaling further silver underperformance relative to gold.
Silver’s key technical level is 55.37: a firm break exposes the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, and a deeper daily break below 54.77 opens the door toward the psychological $50 level (49.78 projection).
Brent remains elevated near $110 on Saudi supply risk, but has yet to confirm a sustained break above 109.97—so a fresh jump in Fed hike expectations is not yet established.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Silver price retreated after hitting a daily high of $58.18, falling below the $58.00 mark as the US Dollar strengthened amid rising US Treasury yields. The XAG/USD trades at $57.87 a troy ounce, down 0.20%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe trend is downward, exacerbated by Silver prices falling below $60.00. This week, after trending up for two of the last three days, XAG/USD failed to reach a higher high, hinting that buyers are losing steam and sellers are moving in.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish, though it has turned flat. This means that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge.

For a bearish continuation, the XAG/USD must clear the October 20 low of $56.38. Beneath the next stop is the $55.00 psychological level, followed by the $50.00 milestone.

For a bullish reversal, buyers must push Silver above $60.00. A breach of that level will expose the March 23 low-turned resistance at $61.01, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.56 and the 50-day SMA at $63.51.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Wednesday, trading around $57.50, down 0.89% at the time of writing. The precious metal remains under pressure as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, higher Oil prices reinforce inflation concerns and expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US Dollar is recovering from a nearly three-week low reached on Tuesday, supported by higher Treasury yields and growing expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Silver, as the metal does not generate yields, making interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive to investors.

Oil prices are also contributing to the bearish environment for precious metals. Brent Crude rises by approximately 1.6% on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran raises concerns about prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict remain unsuccessful despite renewed mediation attempts. Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Tuesday to facilitate discussions between the United States and Iran. However, negotiations reportedly encountered significant obstacles after Tehran refused to transfer its enriched nuclear material abroad.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged earlier this week that reaching a peace agreement with Iran remains extremely difficult, while reiterating Washington's intention to maintain economic pressure on Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Iran's conditions.

The continued disruption of this strategic shipping route raises concerns about global Oil supplies, supporting energy prices and increasing the risk of persistent inflation. These developments reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates again in December, creating additional headwinds for Silver.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets currently assign a near 90% chance to another interest rate increase in December. These expectations follow stronger-than-anticipated US inflation figures released last week, which have reinforced concerns about the persistence of price pressures.

Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East could limit Silver's losses by maintaining demand for safe-haven assets. The metal therefore faces conflicting influences, with geopolitical risks offering some support while higher yields and tighter monetary policy expectations weigh on prices.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Fed's monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 28, followed by the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on October 29. As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the report could provide further indications about the trajectory of US interest rates and influence the direction of Silver prices.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Daily iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
The long-term view of the iShares Silver Trust ETF shows a downtrend based on the market’s relationship with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $57.50 and $65.27, respectively.

From a value perspective, the market has been sitting inside a key long-term retracement zone at $54.92 to $41.96. The three bottoms at $49.61, $51.12 and $50.01 may be early signs of accumulation. However, until new money can cross to the strong side of this zone and create enough upside momentum to overcome the moving averages, the iShares Silver Trust ETF is likely to continue to sit inside the long-term retracement zone.

What to Watch
The Fed has not given silver a fresh trade. Oil is keeping inflation on the screen, December rate expectations are still there, and the dollar and yields are firming. That keeps the pressure on the top side of the market. PCE next week is the next major U.S. number.

The primary driver of my downside bias on the weekly chart is the market’s relative position to the 52-week moving average. The trading action since July, however, is showing signs that some investors are recognizing the importance of the $60.835 to $46.48 retracement zone. Overcoming $60.835 will weaken my bearish outlook.

The main swing chart trend and trading below the 50-day moving average are giving me my downside bias. My outlook will strengthen if $55.40 fails as support. It will weaken if buyers can overcome $58.43 with conviction.

In my opinion, SLV ETF is more of an investment vehicle than a trading vehicle like XAGUSD so my bias is more neutral than bearish. From the all-time high at $109.83, a decline of 50% to 61.8% in just 10 months fits the definition of a value area for long-term investors.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver Prices Rebound Above $58 as BofA's $75 Outlook Faces a Solar Test BofA expects silver prices to recover in 2027, but manufacturers' efforts to use less of the metal leave investment demand carrying more of the burden. The silver price in US dollars rose 2.2% to $58.13 an ounce on Tuesday, recovering some ground after last week's inflation-driven losses.

Bank of America projects $75 for the second and third quarters of 2027, but its nearer-term forecast of $55 for the final quarter of 2026 allows for renewed weakness.

The bank's industrial assessment is cautious: "We expect a surplus in 2026, and further out, the fundamental outlook is less clear cut on a risk that silver substitution accelerates."

Solar expansion is no guarantee of silver demand BofA says: "The silver market has rebalanced on production discipline and demand from new applications including solar panels."

Its concern is how much metal each new installation requires: "Spending on solar panels has boosted silver demand, but a shift in technology likely reduces consumption by 11% in 2026."

That warning concerns solar-related consumption, rather than an 11% fall in total industrial demand.

Fraunhofer ISE's pilot work reduced silver use in a widely produced solar-cell design to roughly a tenth of typical levels, using copper for most electrical conduction.

"So-called nickel/copper electroplating could be firmly established in the photovoltaic market within two to three years," researcher Sven Kluska said in April.

The Silver Institute's annual outlook also warned: "Industrial demand is projected to decline by 3 percent, chiefly due to a further and marked slowdown in PV offtake."

That April assessment still anticipated a market deficit, unlike BofA's more recent surplus forecast.

A greater role for investment buying The sell-off following last week's US inflation figures showed how interest-rate expectations can overwhelm the industrial story.

Higher yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to silver, which pays no income.

BofA sees scope for a change in what drives prices: "Silver could trade more like a precious metal".

It identifies returning investors and stronger Chinese imports as upside risks, with fund liquidation and additional supply on the downside.

Silver Price Forecast FAQ When does BofA expect silver at $75?

Its forecast is $75 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, rather than an immediate target.

Why is solar demand a concern?

Manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in solar cells, potentially weakening demand even as installations increase.

Does BofA expect a silver shortage this year?

No. Its latest assessment anticipates a surplus in 2026 and identifies faster substitution as a risk further ahead.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.35% higher at around $57.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal rises as United States (USD) Treasury Yields come under pressure after a sharp upside move the previous day.

As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.5% to near 5.12%. Yields on US-backed securities gained almost 1.2% to near 5.14%. Theoretically, a drop in US bond yields comes in as a relief of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Lower US bond yields have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD). In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.22% lower to near 101.75.

AI growth concerns hit long-end yieldsAccording to Deutsche Bank, mounting “Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related growth concerns helped to drive a decent rally for sovereign bonds,” with the US 10-year Treasury yield falling “down -16.5bps last week (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.07%.” Strategists highlight that “it was the biggest weekly decline for the 10yr yield since August 2025,” while the “30yr Treasury yield fell -17.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) in its biggest weekly decline since April 2025,” underscoring the intensity of the move at the long end of the curve.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.34, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it remains capped beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.85. Price action stays below this key dynamic barrier, suggesting rallies are likely to face selling interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.15 holds in bearish territory just above oversold, hinting that downside pressure persists but is not yet extreme.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $59.85 is the immediate resistance level that bulls need to reclaim to alleviate the current negative bias. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver is testing critical support at $55.40 as bearish momentum persists, with a breakdown potentially exposing $48.29 while a recovery could establish a higher swing low.

Critical Support Defines Silver’s Next Move
Silver is testing a key decision point after finding support at a low of $55.40 last week, with the next move likely to help determine whether the bearish trend resumes or a countertrend recovery develops.

Support near that low is reinforced by a prior swing low from June and the lower boundary of a falling trend channel. Additional support comes from a summer consolidation range with a low of $54.78. That low also represents a swing low in the developing bearish trend structure that followed the January peak at $121.67, making this a key support zone. A decline below it would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, a potentially significant development, while a rally could generate a higher swing low, providing an early indication of a possible countertrend recovery.

Spot silver daily chart shows test of lower channel boundary
Muted Bounce Leaves Recovery Unconfirmed
So far, the reaction from last week’s low has been muted, initially generating a bullish bounce before being followed by a narrow-range day on Friday, while Monday is on track to produce a similar tight range. This limited follow-through leaves the potential for a recovery unconfirmed.

Since silver is contained within a falling channel, a bounce could potentially test resistance near the upper boundary of the channel, with the 50-day moving average currently projected to be near $63.80. The 20-day moving average near $60.63, however, is the nearer-term resistance level. The falling 20-day moving average represents the next key dynamic resistance area and must be reclaimed to strengthen the case for a continuation of the advance.

Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend structure
Moving Average Crossover Reinforces Bearish Pressure
Signs of resistance are anticipated near that average given its accelerating downward slope, reflecting increasing seller momentum. The average has also declined below the recent minor lower swing high of $62.09 and is approaching a cross below the falling channel’s midline. Those signs support the bearish implications of the recent moving average crossover, in which the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. Together, these factors suggest that any recovery may encounter selling pressure before reaching the upper channel boundary.

Breakdown Risks Extend Toward $48.29
Finally, a further support reference lies near $54.49, defined by the high of a resistance shelf that began forming in October 2025. Given this nearby support, a break to new lows should be treated cautiously until additional technical evidence confirms the breakdown. However, if price continues to fall and these support levels fail to hold, silver could eventually test support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $48.29. For now, the $55.40 low remains the immediate decision point, with a breakdown favoring trend continuation and a sustained recovery potentially establishing a higher swing low.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecastsIf you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Gold Tests The $4150 Level

Gold 191026 Daily Chart
Gold pulls back as traders focus on stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. Bond markets found themselves under pressure as bond traders reacted to rising oil prices. Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia, raising worries about additional escalation in the Middle East.

The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.77% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.15%. Rising yields are bearish for gold that pays no interest.

I’d note that traders do not expect that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October despite rising oil prices. According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike declined to 17.2%. However, the market expects that Fed will raise rates in December and January. Traders believe that Fed will not raise rates ahead of midterm elections but will be forced to continue the rate hike cycle to fight inflation in December.

U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focused on looting and riots in France. More than half a million people protested in France over the weekend, and these protests have quickly become violent. U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status provided support to the American currency, which was bearish for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

From the technical point of view, gold failed to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180 and pulled back below the $4150 level. In case gold settles below $4150, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range.

Silver Moves Higher As Gold/Silver Ratio Pulls Back

Silver 191026 Daily Chart
Silver managed to gain some ground as gold/silver ratio pulled back below the 72.50 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles below 72.50, it will head towards the 70 level, which will be bullish for silver.

Silver needs to settle above the support at $56.00 – $57.00 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, silver will head towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. A move above $60.00 will open the way to the test of the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00.

On the support side, a move below the $56.00 level will provide silver with an opportunity to gain downside momentum. In this case, silver will head towards the next support at $51.00 – $52.00.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

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Platinum Gains Ground Despite Rising Yields

Platinum 191026 Daily Chart
Platinum moved higher despite rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices. Palladium markets were up by +0.8%, which was bullish for platinum. It remains to be seen whether platinum will continue to move higher in case oil prices test new highs amid escalation in the Middle East. High oil prices hurt global economy and may reduce demand for platinum.

Platinum continues to rebound after an unsuccessful attempt to settle below the support level at $1600 – $1620. If platinum stays above the $1620 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $1700 – $1720. A move above the $1720 level will push platinum towards the 50 MA at $1750.

On the support side, a successful test of the support at $1600 – $1620 will open the way to the test of the next support at $1520 – $1540.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver (XAG/USD) has entered the week with a moderately bullish tone, favoured by a soft US Dollar (USD), but the precious metal remains trading within previous ranges, with bulls, so far, capped below the 0.5800 area.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six majors, edges down less than 0.1% on Monday, with the market anticipating a pause at next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.

US inflation figures released last week confirmed that higher energy prices are boosting consumer prices to levels well above the central bank’s target for price stability. Fed officials, however, requested more time to assess the economic impact of September’s rate hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh refused to give any forward guidance.

Futures markets are pricing in only a 12% chance of a rate hike next week, down from nearly 60% one month ago, according to data by the CME’s FedWatch Tool. This is likely to pose a heavy weight for US Dollar rallies.

Technical Analysis: Bulls face a cluster of resistances above 0.5800

XAG/USD holds gains at $57.74 at the time of writing, after bouncing from three-month lows sub-$56.00. Momentum indicators in the four-hour chart, however, show a neutral stance, with the Relative Strength Index (14) still below the key 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive at 0.18, which suggests that the pair would need additional support to break overhead resistance.

Friday's high, at the $58.00 area, is keeping upside attempts limited so far, while the October 8 low, at $58.50, and the descending trendline from mid-September highs, now at $59.05, are likely to pose additional challenges for bulls. A clear break above those levels would confirm a trend shift and set the focus on the October 13 high, net $60,70.

Downside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to find support at the session lows near $56.80, ahead of last week's lows around 55.40.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after posting losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver climbed amid fading expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October.

Market sentiment shifted after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at an International Monetary Fund event on Friday, stating that he does not prejudge interest-rate decisions and offering no clear indication of whether the central bank will raise or hold short-term rates at its upcoming October 27–28 meeting.

Market expectations for a rate increase have dropped significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly an 83.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged later this month, a sharp rise from the 49% chance priced in just a month earlier.

Safe-haven demand further supported precious metals as rising anxieties around AI-related investments sparked a broader stock market selloff and dragged bond yields down. Rabobank observes that recent market turbulence has been particularly acute in the AI complex, noting that “AI-related stocks have had a tough few days.” At the same time, stress has also surfaced in associated credit markets. The bank notes that “CoreWeave’s bonds made headlines for not exactly the best reasons” and adds that, according to the Financial Times, investors are now “dumping data centre bonds” more broadly, underscoring how quickly sentiment has soured across this previously favoured theme.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold Remains Stuck Near Resistance At $4160 – $4180

Gold 161026 Daily Chart
Gold pulls back as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets and react to rising Treasury yields.

Oil prices gained 3.5% as traders focused on rising tensions in the Middle East. From a big picture point of view, oil markets prepare for another round of war between U.S. and Iran. President Trump has recently said that he would not use nuclear against Iran but could use the “Mother of all Bombs”. There are no signs indicating that U.S. – Iran talks have any chance for success in the near term, so traders prepare for escalation. High oil prices boost inflation and may force the Fed to raise rates aggressively.

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 17.2% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October. However, traders are convinced that the central bank will raise rates in December and January.

Treasury yields have started to rebound after yesterday’s strong pullback. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.75% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above the 5.10% level. Rising Treasury yields served as a negative catalyst for gold markets in today’s trading session.

U.S. dollar moved lower against a broad basket of currencies as pullback continued. Howeve, weaker dollar did not provide sufficient support to gold prices.

Gold continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180. In case gold manages to settle above the $4180 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4300 – $4320 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

Silver Pulls Back As Gold/Silver Ratio Rebounds

Silver 161026 Daily Chart
Silver moved lower as gold/silver ratio climbed towards the 73.00 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles above 73.00, it will head towards the 75.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

Currently, silver is trying to settle back below the support at $56.00 – $57.00. In case this attempt is successful, silver will move towards the next support level at $51.00 – $52.00.

On the upside, silver needs to stay above the $57.00 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, silver will head towards the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts

Platinum Moves Away From Session Highs

Platinum 161026 Daily Chart
Platinum was mostly flat as traders focused on the situation in the oil markets. Palladium markets were down by -1.7%, which was bearish for platinum.

From the technical point of view, platinum made an attempt to settle above the support level at $1600 – $1620 but lost momentum and pulled back. In case platinum declines below the $1600 level, it will head towards the next support level at $1520 – $1540.

On the upside, a move above the $1650 level will push platinum towards the resistance level at $1700 – $1720.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Silver rebounds from its $55–$60 demand zone as falling Treasury yields offer relief, although industrial demand and inflation risks remain unresolved.

Silver
Today, silver is entering the market with a somewhat easier financing backdrop, but an industrial-demand argument that still needs confirmation. Yesterday’s Treasury tables showed lower yields across key maturities. Today’s U.S. industrial production report, scheduled for 9:15 a.m. Eastern, can refresh the activity evidence as far as industrial demand is concerned.

The 2-year nominal Treasury par yield declined to 4.77% yesterday from 4.82% a day earlier. The 10-year nominal yield fell to 5.10% from 5.19%. The interpretation that I take away from this is that lower competing returns can ease one headwind for non-yielding investment positions and inventory financing for a market such as silver.

Real Yields
Real yields moved in the same direction. Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected constant-maturity par yield declined from 2.84% to 2.70%. This is going to potentially improve the relative appeal of holding metal without contractual income. The relationship is conditional, though, because industrial activity, physical availability, and investment preferences will sometimes outweigh changes in financing costs.

PPI Shows Conflicting Info
Inflation remains an important opposing consideration. The September PPI report published on Thursday showed final-demand prices rising 1.3% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% annually, unadjusted. Final-demand goods increased 2.6% monthly, services 0.8%, and energy 10.8%. The data are preliminary and describe prices, not the volume of goods produced or the amount of silver consumed.

The PPI measure excluding food and energy increased 0.7% monthly. Excluding trade services as well reduced that figure to 0.5%. The distinction prevents different definitions of underlying inflation from being confused in policy discussion.

This distinction matters for silver’s well-known dual role. A producer receiving higher selling prices may be experiencing healthy demand, constrained supply, or even higher costs. The possibilities have different implications for metal purchases. It would therefore be premature to call the PPI increase evidence of a surge in industrial silver demand, as higher prices can coexist with pressures on margins and purchasing power.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecasts
Fed Raised 25 Basis Points. Will They Raise More?
The latest available Federal Reserve production report is from September 18 and covers the month of August. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3% that month, while total industrial production was unchanged. The manufacturing index stood at 98.2, with 2017 equaling 100, compared with 98.4 in July. Today’s new release can test whether that setback continued. A stronger reading would improve the broader activity backdrop, but it would still not directly measure overall industrial silver orders.

U.S. manufacturing output increased from 97.4 in March to 98.4 in July before slipping to 98.2 in August, according to Federal Reserve data.
Silver’s electrical and electronic uses provide a structural reason to monitor manufacturing. USGS documents those applications and the metal’s conductivity. The background explains the relevance of industrial indicators. It does not establish that demand in every application is expanding today, though. One place you could see a claim about more demand could be solar-related consumption, but that remains unclear.

Yesterday’s PPI Report
Yesterday’s inflation information also needs to be distinguished from policy. The Federal Reserve’s latest decision on September 16 was to raise its interest rate 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The next decision is still up in the air, but it does look as if the market believes the Federal Reserve is likely to hold.

The first scheduled data catalyst today is import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. in New York, and industrial production follows at 9:15 a.m. The former can inform the discussion of external price pressures. The latter provides a more direct test of output. Both will be monitored carefully.

In analytical terms, improving activity alongside stable or declining real yields would offer a more constructive combination, rather than either development by itself. Weaker activity and renewed yield increases would make things difficult for silver. The mixed result could leave it moving between its monetary characteristics and its industrial ones, making unsupported single-factor expectations unhelpful.

Silver Is Rallying Early on Friday

Silver futures trade near $57.93, holding above $55 support but below $60 resistance.
It looks like the continued bounce from the crucial $55 level is in play. There is a range between $55 and $60 that seems to be significant demand, and with yields dropping the way they have over the last couple of days, silver does have a little bit of a boost behind it at the moment.

Key Points:Fed rate hike risks could limit the rebound in gold and silver.Gold needs to clear $4,200–$4,250 to strengthen its recovery.Silver could fall towards $50 if support at $55 fails.Gold (XAU) trades near $4,155 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday, while silver (XAG) consolidates around $57.20 after the rebound on Thursday. The correction in the US dollar and US Treasury yields supported both metals to recover despite hot US inflation data.

The concerns about debt at artificial intelligence companies drove investors towards government bonds. This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield towards 5.09%. The low yields make gold and silver more attractive. Silver gained over 3% on Thursday after a sharp drop of 5.98% on Wednesday after the CPI data release.

This recovery still faces pressure from persistent inflation. US producer prices jumped 1.3% in September. This is the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. The annual producer inflation reached 6.3% and keeps further rate hikes by the Fed in focus. The market is now waiting for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF meeting in Bangkok on Friday for clues about the next policy decision.

In my view, the rebound could extend if bond yields remain under pressure. But a firm warning from Warsh about inflation could lift expectations for rate hike and renew selling in both metals.

Gold Price Forecast: Rebound Faces $4,200–$4,250 Resistance
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating in tight range between $4,220 and $4,100. This zone is highlighted in orange on the chart below. The price dropped after the US CPI data but recovered immediately towards $4,177 and now consolidates in a tight range.

These consolidations suggest that prices remain under pressure until the price clearly breaks above the $4,200 level. The 10-day moving average is now flat, which suggests neutral movement in the short term.

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A clear break below $4,100 will push prices towards the major support at $4,000. However, a break below $4,000 will push the gold price towards $3,800, which is defined by the descending trend line that stretches from the October 2025 highs.

On the other hand, a break above $4,200 will open the way for a rally towards the 50-day SMA near $4,330 and the descending trend line near $4,450. A clear break above $4,500 will likely trigger a strong rally towards $5,000.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that prices have produced a rebound from the support of the ascending trend line that stretches from the June 2026 low. The 4-hour chart also shows $4,200-$4,250 as the immediate resistance. A break below the ascending trend line near $4,080 will likely push prices towards the $3,900-$4,000 area.

Gold Price Forecast

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Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $55 Could Expose $50
The daily chart for spot silver also shows that prices remain under pressure despite the slight rebound from the strong support of the triangle at $55 on Thursday. The price has challenged the most important support in the short term and looks to find the next move.

A break below $55 will likely trigger another drop towards the $50 region. On the other hand, a break above $64 will likely break the triangle and open the way for a rally towards the $72 area, which is defined by the 200-day SMA.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows that the price dropped from the key resistance at $64. The price needs to break above the $72 area to open the way for a further rally towards the $90 region. The major support in silver remains between $45 and $50, which is defined by the support of the wedge pattern.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Rises Above 73 as Silver Lags
The gold-to-silver ratio has also rebounded and moved above the 73 region, which has been defined as the key resistance in the ratio. The strong rally in the ratio suggests that gold and silver prices have more room to drop. According to historical price action, major bottoms in gold and silver prices form when the ratio peaks.

The ratio produced peaks in March 2020 and April 2025 at the key resistance of the ascending channel pattern. The breakdown from this ascending channel pattern in November 2025 triggered a strong drop.

Now, the ratio is rebounding again to find the next resistance. Once the ratio produces a peak, gold and silver prices will likely confirm a bottom and initiate a strong rally.

What to Watch Next
Gold and silver prices remain vulnerable despite the rebound on Thursday. The drop in Treasury yields could support further gains in precious metals, but persistent inflation keeps the risk of a Fed rate hike in focus. The comments by Warsh could shape the next move by changing expectations for interest rates.

Gold needs to clear $4,200-$4,250 to strengthen the recovery, while silver needs to break above $64. A break below $4,100 in gold could expose $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could bring $50 into view. The increase in the gold-to-silver ratio also shows that silver remains weaker than gold.

Read more: Softer Dollar Fuels Rebound After Hot CPI

About the Author

Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

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Peru and Mexico both mined less silver than a year earlier, and Mexico was the one expected to grow, so the supply case that silver holders rely on just got a little firmer.

Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast world mine supply to slip slightly this year. They expect gains in Mexico and Morocco to be more than offset by declines, mainly in Peru and Argentina. Peru is falling as forecast. Mexico's latest monthly figure, for July, went the other way. Then on October 8 a strike was formally declared at San Dimas, one of Mexico's larger silver mines, where work had already stopped. One month does not overturn a full-year forecast, and the ounces involved are small next to this year's expected shortfall. But the direction favours silver holders over the coming year, even while interest rates drive the price in the short run.

The price has not reflected any of this yet. Silver fell about 6% on October 14. US consumer prices had risen faster than expected, and markets moved toward another Federal Reserve rate rise. Kitco's late-afternoon reading put silver at $55.41 and gold at $4,098.80. That is a gold-silver ratio of about 74. At that reading silver was about 22.7% below its 2025 closing price, on MetalCharts' figures. Silver pays no interest, so it becomes less attractive to hold when bonds pay more after inflation. Real yields, the return on bonds after inflation, and the dollar have been the main near-term influences on the price this year, though the daily link is not one-to-one. At Golden Meadow® I track both sides: the price, which answers to rates in the short run, and the balance of supply and demand, which builds the longer-term case.

A strike at one of Mexico's larger Silver minesWorkers at First Majestic's San Dimas mine in Durango stopped work on September 18. On October 8 about 800 of them, in two sections of Mexico's national miners' union, made it a formal strike. Extraction of gold and silver is halted. The union cites safety conditions, worn equipment, breaches of the labour contract and a productivity bonus. As of October 13, local reports said work remained completely halted, with no agreement and no date set for a return.

The dispute was already showing in the company's numbers. San Dimas produced 41% less silver in the third quarter than a year earlier, according to First Majestic's own release. The company blames 12 operating days lost to the dispute. It also cites lower grades, meaning less silver in each tonne of ore, which it links to the dispute as well. At last year's pace of output, each further month of strike removes roughly half a million ounces.

That quarterly fall needs reading with care. It mixes the strike with lower grades. Ore that is not mined during a strike can be mined later, so the quarter overstates any permanent loss of supply.

Peru and Mexico both mined lessIn August, I looked at what cut silver output in Mexico, Peru and Chile at once. The latest official figures point the same way, and they measure silver directly rather than estimate it.

Peru's mines ministry reported less silver for January to July than in the same months of 2025. The fall was 1.64 million ounces, or 2.4%. Silver output in July on its own rose 0.5%, so the decline came earlier in the year. Much of Peru's silver comes out of zinc and lead ore, and Peru's zinc output fell 22.2% in July. That fits the survey, which expected Peru's decline to come from lower output at its lead and zinc mines.

In Mexico, the statistics agency INEGI put July's mined silver 4.3% below a year earlier. That is a loss of about 0.58 million ounces in one month. Mexico also publishes a series for refined silver, which fell 2.3%. The mined series is the one that measures what came out of the ground.

Chile adds a copper signal, which is not the same as a silver signal. Copper mines are the second-largest source of byproduct silver, the silver recovered as a side product of mining another metal. Chile's copper output fell 12.7% in August, and workers at the Centinela copper mine went on strike on October 7. No Chilean source publishes the silver in that copper, so it is a pointer rather than a measurement.

Sources: Peru mines ministry via REDIMIN | INEGI, mining bulletin, September 2026 | First Majestic Q3 2026 (SEC) | REDIMIN, Peru zinc output | La Jornada, San Dimas strike | Meganoticias, strike status October 13 | El Siglo de Durango, strike declared | Endeavour Silver Q3 2026 (SEC) | PSU Connect, Hindustan Zinc | Cochilco data via CNN Chile | World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute

The San Dimas fall mixes the strike with lower grades, and ore not mined during a strike can be mined later, so the quarterly figure overstates a permanent supply loss. The Hindustan Zinc figure is saleable refined silver from an integrated miner and smelter, taken from a secondary report; the exchange filing was not seen.

What pulls the other waySupply is rising in some places, and an honest reading has to count them. India's Hindustan Zinc reported 20% more refined silver in the July to September quarter, about 0.93 million ounces. That is saleable metal from a company that both mines and smelts, taken from a secondary report. It measures something different from Mexico's mined output, so it cannot be subtracted from Mexico's decline. It does show supply growing elsewhere.

In Mexico itself, Endeavour Silver's total silver output across its mines rose 19% as its new Terronera mine ramped up. Discovery Silver's Cordero project in Chihuahua received its federal environmental permits on October 6. The bank BMO's model puts first production in the second half of 2029, so it adds no supply for years.

What this means to Silver investorsSilver that is used has to come from somewhere: a mine, recycling or a stockpile. When mines and recyclers supply less than the world uses, stockpiles fill the gap. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast that gap at 46.3 million ounces this year, which would make 2026 the sixth year in a row of shortfall. Other things being equal, less silver mined in Peru, Mexico or at San Dimas widens it.

The size is modest. The measured declines in Peru and Mexico add up to about 2.2 million ounces. They cover different periods, so this is not a global estimate. A strike that lasts through November would add about another million ounces. None of it is large next to the forecast shortfall.

The direction matters more than the size. The survey expected Mexico to grow this year and soften Peru's decline. July went the other way, and one of the country's larger silver mines is now shut. A single month does not overturn a full-year forecast. Mexico's August figures, due around October 21, will show whether July was a blip or the start of a run. Third-quarter results from the larger producers follow from late October.

So this is good news for silver holders on the supply side, at a small scale, and it matters over the coming year rather than the coming week. The price fell on interest rates this week and may keep answering to them for a while. The supply side is what builds the longer-term case, and in the latest data it got firmer.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.5% to near $56.50 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal holds ground near $55.40 as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields are under pressure, with financial markets remaining confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.

In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.4% to near 102.10 even after recovering some of its early losses. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.

10-year US Treasury Yields have slid to near 5.09%, the lowest level seen in three weeks. Theoretically, a decline in US bond yields results in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Why Fed prospects for October matters now?On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September showed that price pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace; however, they failed to uplift hawkish Fed expectations for the October meeting.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this meeting have increased marginally to 27% from 22% seen before the data release.

Hawkish Fed prospects for the October meeting were already lower as several policymakers had indicated no urgency for interest rate hikes. However, financial markets were awaiting the US inflation report, assuming that it might influence interest rate expectations.

US PPI data in focusMeanwhile, investors shift their focus to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US PPI will likely show that the headline inflation at the producer level dropped to 5.3% YoY from the previous reading of 5.4%.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $56.63, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds firmly below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $60.73. The EMA’s position overhead suggests that recent rebounds are being capped by prevailing supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.75 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but starting to look stretched.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $60.73 is the immediate resistance to beat before any more meaningful recovery can develop. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 appears to be the crucial support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Recent sessions have been particularly challenging for silver prices in the short term. Selling pressure has intensified considerably, resulting in three consecutive losing sessions and pushing the metal to a decline of nearly 8.5% over this period. This move has taken silver back to its lowest levels of the year and reflects a loss of market appeal that has become increasingly evident in recent trading activity.

Part of this weakness can be attributed to the performance of the U.S. dollar and the bond market following the release of U.S. inflation data. Expectations of higher interest rates have increased the attractiveness of alternative markets that compete with precious metals for investor capital, reducing the room for a meaningful recovery in silver prices. As long as this environment remains in place, the bearish bias around XAG/USD could continue to dominate market activity in the sessions ahead.

Are Inflation Numbers Reinforcing Silver's Weakness?
The latest U.S. inflation figures were released during today's session. Annual CPI came in at 3.7%, above the market expectation of 3.6%, while Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also exceeding forecasts of 2.5%.

The importance of these figures lies in the fact that inflation continues to show difficulty moving lower and remains well above the 2.0% target established by the Federal Reserve. As a result, expectations have strengthened that the central bank could maintain a more aggressive stance in the coming months.

This situation is particularly important for silver because both the bond market and the U.S. dollar tend to benefit in environments where interest-rate expectations move higher. Since silver does not generate a direct yield, it often becomes less attractive when competing assets perceived as relatively stable begin offering higher returns.

The impact of this dynamic has been clearly reflected across financial markets. On one hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to trade near the 5.2% area, historically elevated levels that remain attractive to investors. At the same time, the DXY, which measures the U.S. dollar against its major counterparts, continues to hold above the 102-point mark, reflecting sustained demand for the greenback even after the inflation release.

Silver has moved in the opposite direction. While both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar continue to display strength, the precious metal has remained under pressure, suggesting that these competing markets continue to absorb some of the demand that would otherwise flow toward silver.

Source: TradingEconomics

Taking all of this into account, expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve have increased the opportunity cost of holding precious metals relative to assets that generate yield. This dynamic became particularly evident following the inflation release and could continue limiting silver's ability to recover in the short term. As long as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to benefit from expectations of higher interest rates, the selling pressure surrounding XAG/USD could remain an important feature of market activity.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio
Another important factor within the precious metals market is the evolution of the gold-to-silver ratio, which has climbed toward the 73 area after reaching lows near 64 at the end of September.

This implies that a growing number of ounces of silver are required to purchase one ounce of gold and reflects the weaker relative performance of silver compared with gold over recent weeks.

Source: Bullionbypost

The steady increase in this ratio suggests that investors are favoring gold over silver within the precious-metals space. Recent market reactions to macroeconomic developments show that silver remains more sensitive to expectations surrounding monetary policy and broader financial market conditions.

Not even silver's industrial component has been enough to stabilize demand in recent sessions. Instead, the market appears to be placing greater emphasis on gold as the primary safe-haven metal. This indicates that silver is not only losing attractiveness against alternative markets such as the U.S. dollar and bonds, but also against a closely related asset like gold.

As long as the ratio continues to advance and silver's relative weakness against gold remains evident, this situation could continue to reflect fading confidence in the metal and support ongoing selling pressure around XAG/USD in the sessions ahead.

Silver Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The major bearish trendline regains relevance: Since the early months of 2026, silver has been developing within a broader bearish structure that has led to the formation of a significant long-term downtrend. The recent acceleration in selling pressure has returned focus to this trendline and, as long as key support levels continue to break lower, the broader bearish structure could once again become the dominant technical pattern to monitor over the coming weeks.

 
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to trade below the 0 neutral line, reflecting that short-term moving-average momentum remains tilted in favor of sellers. As long as this reading remains intact, bearish pressure could continue to dominate market movements.

 
RSI: The RSI is showing a similar picture, remaining below the 50 neutral level. However, the indicator is also approaching the 30 oversold zone, a development that could signal excessive recent selling pressure and create room for short-term bullish corrections.

 
Key Levels to Watch:

$62 – Critical Resistance: This level aligns with the long-term bearish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. Price action that manages to develop consistently above this reference could begin to challenge the dominant bearish structure and open the door to a more neutral trading environment.

 
$58 – Near-Term Barrier: An important retracement area observed over recent weeks that could become the primary level to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.

 
$55 – Critical Support: This level coincides with the lows of the year and remains the most important downside barrier on the daily chart. Sustained moves below this area could reinforce the dominance of the bearish bias and support a further extension of the current downtrend in the weeks ahead.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

High oil prices, rising inflation readings, and therefore hawkish central banks… All these factors have badly impacted the precious metals markets. But investors cannot see the big picture the US economy is facing. The surging debt and the rising money supply are the real upside factors for both gold and silver.

US national debt

Source: US Debt Clock.org

As I have written in my previous publications, US national debt has recently surpassed the $40 trillion mark. The debt-to-GDP ratio has been substantially above the critical 100% mark for a while, which makes it very expensive to service thanks to the higher rates for longer. It is now around 123%, substantially above the 52.31% reported in 1960, 34.68% reported in 1980, or even the 55.85% in 2000.

Rising national debt is the direct result of many years of budget deficits recorded in the US. High debt obviously leads to more money printing by the Fed to service that debt.

Money supplyThat is why over the past ten years, the US M2 money supply has increased by $10 trillion to reach $23.34 trillion. Particularly dramatic was the 2020 pandemic surge, which happened during the unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) program taken by the Fed to get the paralyzed economy going. Every time the Fed launches its QE program, the money supply rises.

Source: TradingView

How much should precious metals cost?According to the US Debt Clock.org website, given the amount of liquidity there is in the US economy, silver should cost $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. The dollar-to-silver and the dollar-to-gold ratios are the following:

Source: US Debt Clock.org

In other words, for every ounce of gold there are 11,969 US dollars, while for every ounce of silver there are 1,515 US dollars.

Also, as can be seen from the excerpt above, it is highly risky to hold precious metals in paper form: the paper-to-silver ratio is a whopping 406. This suggests that for every ounce of physical silver, there are 406 ounces of paper silver. As for gold, there are 153 ounces of paper gold for every physical ounce of the yellow metal.

But it does not mean that gold and silver prices rise merely to cover for inflation.

Below is a diagram showing the median house prices in the US.

Median house price in the US history

Source: The Federal Reserve

Right now, the median house price in the US is lingering near the $400,000 mark. Let us divide that number by the current silver price of $60 per ounce. We will get 6667 silver ounces that can be used to buy a house.

Historical silver prices

Source: Macrotrends

In 1980, the average house price was $64,000; in 2000, it was $170,000, while in 2011 it was $200,000. In 1980, silver cost $32 per ounce; in 2000 it was worth $5 per ounce, while in 2011 it was $40.

So, in 1980, you could have bought a house with just 2,000 ounces of gold; in 2000, the price was a whopping 40,000 silver ounces, while in 2011 it was 5,000. So, silver does not appreciate with inflation. It is a volatile precious metal, and it does not move in the same direction as house prices.  

House prices can also be measured in gold ounces.

Gold prices history

Source: Macrotrends

In 1980, gold cost $500 per ounce; in 2000, $270; in 2011, $1,700. Let us divide the average house prices by the per-ounce gold prices recorded in each of these years. In 1980, it was possible to buy a house with just 128 ounces; in 2000, 630, while in 2011 it was possible with just 118. Again, gold prices surge and fall, not in accordance with inflation or other asset prices.

Conclusion The US debt and the money supply are surging fast, thus making precious metals seem even more attractive to investors than they used to be in the past. Given the M2 money supply, silver price should be $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. But it is important to know that gold and silver prices do not only move in accordance with inflation, and silver is much more volatile than gold.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.65% to near $58.70 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The white metal is under pressure as oil prices have increased recently amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.5% lower to near $93.44, but has recovered almost 7.5% from its recent low of $86.32.

Analysts at Commerzbank report that oil prices extended its recent advance, as "fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and continued tanker diversions from the Persian Gulf stoked supply fears." The bank highlights that the renewed disruption to Saudi facilities and shipping routes is reinforcing market concerns over the reliability of Middle East supply at current price levels.

Higher oil prices prompt global inflationary fears, a scenario that boosts the odds of hawkish interest rate decisions from central banks, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, investors keenly await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data is expected to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.

US inflation seen edging higher but Fed likely to stay patientAnalysts at Danske Bank expect a modest firming in the September data, forecasting “headline inflation at 0.5% m/m SA, 3.6% y/y (prior: 0.6% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and core inflation at 0.2% m/m SA, 2.5% y/y (prior: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y), with energy prices being the main driver of the expected pickup in headline inflation.” For the policy outlook, Danske Bank emphasises that “for the Fed, focus will be on whether underlying inflation pressures are broadening.” With this being the final inflation release before the October FOMC meeting and “recent Fed communication signalling little urgency to hike again,” the bank judges that “it would take a clear upside surprise for the Fed to signal a rate hike already in October.”

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $58.75, extending its slide below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.45, which now acts as immediate overhead resistance and keeps the near-term tone bearish. The location of price under this key trend gauge suggests rallies are likely to be capped while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 37.49 stays on the weak side of neutral, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold rebound.

On the topside, the first level to watch is the 20-day EMA at $61.45, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open scope for a broader recovery. On the downside, while no nearby structural price supports are evident in the dataset, the RSI reading at 37.49 indicates that sellers still have control but are approaching levels where dip-buying interest could start to emerge if the slide in XAG/USD extends further.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $59.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Wednesday. Non-yielding Silver gains following dovish remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Speaking on Tuesday, Williams noted that while he maintains his view that one more rate hike may be appropriate this year, he does not foresee additional rate increases in 2027.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are currently pricing in roughly a 77% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while assigning an 88% chance of a rate hike in December.

Market focus now shifts to the US September CPI inflation data scheduled for release later in the North American session, which could offer clearer direction on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path. Headline US CPI is expected to show a year-over-year rise of 3.6% in September, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, is projected to increase to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.4% in the previous month.

Geopolitical tensions remained a key focus as oil prices extended their gains amid escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels, intensifying concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions.

Energy complex stays resilient as tanker attacks escalateAccording to TD Securities, “strength across the energy market is hard to shake as tanker attacks escalate,” underscoring the firm’s view that ongoing security risks are helping to sustain robust pricing across the oil complex rather than allowing any meaningful easing in market tensions.

Adding to the cautious global sentiment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of significant risks to international economic growth and financial stability. The organization highlighted threats stemming from a potential slowdown in the AI investment boom, mounting debt levels, and a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

AI and semiconductor demand stay resilient despite looming slowdownEconomists at DBS highlight that, despite a more challenging financing backdrop, there is still "limited evidence of a significant slowdown in AI investment or semiconductor demand." They point out that hyperscaler capital expenditure has "maintained robust yoy growth through 2Q," underscoring the strength of current AI-related spending. However, DBS also notes that this pace is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely, citing Bloomberg forecasts that growth is set to "moderate from 95% this year to 39% in 2027," suggesting a gradual normalization in the AI and semiconductor investment cycle over the medium term.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.20, extending a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair’s slide below these trend references suggests that rallies are likely to be capped by overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.87 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold rebound.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the short-term nine-period EMA near $60.21, with a stronger barrier at the 50-period EMA around $62.99, where sellers may reassert control if prices attempt a recovery. With no clear nearby structural support indicated, the metal appears vulnerable to further weakness until buyers can reclaim at least the $60.21 level, which would be the first step toward easing the current bearish bias.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold Attempts To Settle Below $4150

Gold 131026 Daily Chart
Gold is losing ground despite weaker dollar. U.S. dollar pulled back against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders took some profits off the table near yearly highs. Weaker dollar is bullish for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

Treasury yields were mixed in today’s trading session. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.81% level as traders bet that Fed will be forced to raise rates to fight inflation. That said, FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 23.8% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October. The market expects that Fed will raise rates in December.

Interestingly, longer-dated bonds have finally started to attract investors. The yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 5.22% level, while the yield of 30-year Treasuries declined below 5.58%. Gold traders focused on dynamics of shorter-term yields and ignored recent developments in long-dated bond markets.

Oil prices gained some ground as traders focused on escalation in the Middle East. President Trump said that Houthis were “behaving very badly” and accused them of trying to drive up oil prices. I’d note that oil markets did not rally after Trump’s words, which was surprising as Trump’s post signaled that U.S. could put pressure on the Houthis.

From the technical point of view, gold made an attempt to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180 but lost momentum and pulled back towards the $4150 level. In case gold settles below $4160, it will head towards the $4100 level. A move below $4100 will open the way to the test of the support at $4000 – $4020.

Silver Retreats As Gold/Silver Ratio Moves Above 70

Silver 131026 Daily Chart
Silver pulled back as gold/silver ratio climbed above the psychologically important 70.00 level. If gold/silver ratio settles above 70.00, it will head towards the 72.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

Currently, silver is trying to settle below the $59.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, silver will move towards the nearest support, which is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range.

A move below the $56.00 level will provide silver with a chance to gain additional downside momentum. In this case, silver will head towards the $52.00 level. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

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Platinum Is Under Strong Pressure

Platinum 131026 Daily Chart
Platinum is losing ground amid broad pullback in precious metals markets. Palladium markets are down by -1.3%, which is bearish for platinum.

Platinum failed to settle above the resistance at $1700 – $1720 and declined towards the $1650 level. In case platinum settles below $1650, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $1600 – $1620 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the $1520 level.

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