The loudest silver story in July was a shooting war, but the more durable threat was a peaceful election in Peru, a country that digs up close to one silver ounce in six.
Silver trades near $59.43 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69. That ratio is simply the number of silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and it sits near the high end of its historical range, a level long-term buyers read as silver being inexpensive against the larger metal. Silver is up more than 50% from where it stood a year ago, though it remains well below the record of $121.62 set on January 29.
Most of the past fortnight's price action came from the Middle East, where renewed strikes on Iran drove oil higher and pulled silver down with it. That is the noisy, macro-driven side of the market, and it tends to dominate the headlines. Underneath it, though, a slower and more consequential story was developing on the supply side, in a country that rarely makes the front page of a metals report.
I write the Silver Catalyst newsletter for Golden Meadow®, and one of the themes I keep returning to is that silver's supply is more concentrated, and more politically exposed, than its steady price history suggests. Peru is the clearest example. It is among the top handful of silver-producing countries, and in July its politics moved in a direction that could tighten an already narrow supply picture.
One country, about a sixth of mine supplyOn July 15, Reuters reported that Peru's president-elect, Keiko Fujimori, could face renewed protests in the country's mining regions as her incoming government tries to push forward large copper and other mining projects that have been delayed for years. The report drew on a study by the Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Peru, which counts roughly $64 billion in planned mining investment, much of it in poor rural areas where communities say they see little local benefit and worry about the environmental cost.
This is not a war or a coup. It is the ordinary friction of a mining democracy, and that is exactly why it is easy to underrate. But the numbers behind it are not small. Peru produced about 131 million ounces of silver in 2025, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which is about 15% of the roughly 847 million ounces the world mined that year, close to one ounce in six.
Two features of Peruvian silver make that output especially fragile. The first is that most of it is a byproduct. Peru's mines are dug primarily for lead, zinc, and copper, and silver comes out alongside those metals rather than as the main event. This is not unique to Peru. It is how most of the world's silver is produced: mines built primarily for silver have fallen to just 26% of global supply, a record low, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which means roughly three-quarters of all silver now arrives as a byproduct of mining for other metals. What concentrates the risk in Peru is that so much of this byproduct supply sits in one country. It means silver supply from Peru rises and falls with decisions made for entirely different reasons, driven by the economics of lead, zinc, and copper, and it cannot easily be increased just because silver is expensive. The second is that many of Peru's silver projects are run by small and mid-sized companies with thin balance sheets, which makes them more vulnerable to the energy-cost spikes and road blockades that periodically disrupt the country's mining regions.
The backdrop was already unsettled before the election result. Peru issued an emergency decree in May to deal with an energy shortage, road blockades have periodically interrupted shipments of concentrate, and the program to formalize the country's large informal-mining sector has been extended into the end of 2026. A wave of protest over stalled projects would land on top of all of it.
There is a second-order effect that reaches well beyond Peru's borders. Peru is a major supplier of silver-bearing concentrate to China, the country that does most of the world's silver refining. A serious disruption in Peru would not just remove Peruvian ounces; it would tighten the raw material feeding Chinese refineries, at the same time that China's own export controls are keeping more of its refined silver at home. The squeeze would compound.
Sources: MINING.COM / Reuters: Fujimori's Mining Push Could Spur Unrest in Peru | Silver Bullion: Peru's Energy Crisis and the Silver Market | Mexico Business News: US Demands Fall From 54 to 14 Ahead of July 20 Talks | White & Case: Critical-Minerals Section 232 Negotiations
Why this matters more than one country's politicsThe reason Peru carries weight is that the world's mined silver supply barely grows, so there is no cushion to absorb a loss.
In 2025, global mine production came in at 846.6 million ounces. For 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast it essentially flat, at 844.1 million ounces, a decline of about 2.5 million ounces. That flatness is the whole point. Silver has been in a supply deficit, meaning the world uses more than it mines and recycles, and it has closed the gap by drawing down above-ground stockpiles that are not unlimited. When mine supply cannot grow, every regional threat to it matters more, because there is nothing spare to make up the difference.
Peru sits right at the center of that math. The survey already expects Peruvian output to fall in 2026 on weaker lead and zinc production, and names Peru first among the declines that outweigh recovering output in Mexico and leave the global total slightly lower. In other words, Peru is already forecast to be a drag on world supply before any new political unrest is added. A wave of protest that stalled projects or blocked roads would push in the same direction, from an already flat base.
What this means to Silver investorsThe practical lesson is that silver's supply risk is concentrated in a handful of countries, and it is the kind of risk that builds quietly rather than announcing itself.
An oil shock or a war moves the price this week, and it is easy to watch. A president-elect's mining agenda, a study on rural protest, an emergency energy decree: these move nothing today, and they never generate a dramatic one-day chart. But they accumulate. Peru, Mexico, and China between them dominate the world's mined and refined silver, and in a single fortnight all three showed up on the risk ledger at once, through Peru's unrest study, a US-Mexico trade review, and China's export controls. None of them removed an ounce from the market in July. What they did was raise the political premium sitting over the supply that has to fill a persistent shortfall.
That shortfall is the anchor. The market is forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. A deficit means the world is consuming more silver than it produces and recycles, and covering the difference from existing stocks. Against that backdrop, a threat to roughly a sixth of global mine supply is not a footnote. It is a threat to the single side of the equation that has no slack left in it.
None of this is a forecast about next week's price, which will keep taking its cues from oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve. It is a point about the ground underneath the price. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, you will see the sharp moves come and go with the macro headlines, while the longer-term case for silver rests on a supply base that is flat, concentrated, and increasingly political. The war grabbed the headlines in July. Peru is the one worth watching after they fade, and it is exactly the kind of slow, structural risk the framework in Silver Rising is built to track.
Peru's supply risk is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter.
Death Cross Signals Technical Downward Pressure With that being the situation that we find ourselves in, we probably have to keep an eye on the headlines, the interest rate markets in the United States, and the value of the US dollar, which is typically a reaction to the interest rates in America. With the recent death cross, the 50-day EMA dropping below the 200-day EMA, it opens up the possibility that longer-term technical traders are probably going to add more downward pressure.
Ultimately, this is a market that, given enough time, probably has to make a bigger decision, but as things stand right now, I think everybody is in a bit of a holding pattern. The price action certainly seems to suggest this as being the case.
Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after registering nearly 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $57.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-yielding white metal may regain ground as the prospect of de-escalation sends oil prices lower, easing market concerns over rising inflation and further interest rate hikes.
US President Donald Trump indicated that the US is engaged in "good talks" with Iran to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. However, Trump also cautioned that the US is prepared to resume military strikes if negotiations collapse. The statement comes after the US suspended attacks late Friday following nearly two weeks of hostilities, with Tehran simultaneously halting retaliatory strikes against US bases in neighboring countries.
Washington suspended its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend, leading to three consecutive days without attacks. Tehran’s foreign ministry countered that no direct negotiations with the US are taking place, noting its only active dialogue is with Oman regarding the future of the Strait.
Traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision this week, where central bank officials are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. While lingering inflationary pressures have led a minority of traders to speculate on an immediate rate increase, the prevailing consensus suggests that any potential hike would likely be deferred until September.
Spot silver weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Confluence Could Draw Price Higher That confluence can play a role in how an advance might unfold, as the price zone can act like a magnet for price. Nonetheless, sellers continue to dominate the underlying price action, although there are early signs of a short-term shift in momentum. There has been one leg up from the $54.78 corrective bottom established two weeks ago, reaching a high of $60.94 last week. The week ended with a higher weekly low and higher high, reflecting short-term strength on the higher timeframe. Moreover, support has held, helping reinforce the potential for a near-term continuation of the advance.
Monday Reversal Signals a Test of $63.28 A slightly higher swing low was established on Monday, as silver strengthened to a three-day high near $60.10, triggering a one-day bullish reversal above Friday’s high of $58.99. That suggests the potential for continuation of the advance to a higher high, above $60.94. The advance also put silver above its 20-day moving average, now near $58.82, for the fifth time in as many days.
That shows an attempt to reclaim the average, but the repeated tests have so far failed to produce a decisive breakout, leaving downside risk. For the potential bounce to develop into a more meaningful advance, silver will ultimately need to overcome the $63.28 lower swing high. Until then, the larger downtrend remains intact, with the $70.65 to $72.08 resistance zone offering a much more significant test if the short-term strength can persist.
On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends.
Weldon explained why he has shifted back to a bullish outlook on gold and silver following the recent correction, arguing that the long-term bull market in precious metals remains firmly intact.
Gold and Silver investment outlook turns bullish againWeldon said he previously anticipated silver would correct toward $61 per ounce, with a worst-case target near $54, after successfully exiting positions between $96 and $98 when prices had traded above $100.
With silver now recovering above $60, he believes investors have another opportunity to accumulate physical precious metals. He described the current environment as a "back the truck up" moment, adding that he is personally converting long-term savings into physical gold and silver rather than holding excess cash. He also noted that one of his silver-share investments returned 167%, after being up as much as 217% before profits were taken.
Weldon remains especially optimistic about silver's future. He reiterated that the breakout above $36.50 confirmed a major secular bull market and argued that today's rally is supported by genuine supply deficits and rising industrial demand rather than speculative excess. Based on his long-term macroeconomic analysis, he projects silver could ultimately reach approximately $326 per ounce within the next five to seven years.
AI bubble, stock market risks, and Federal Reserve policyThe conversation then turned to broader financial markets, where Weldon expressed growing concern that artificial intelligence has become the latest investment bubble. He argued that enormous capital spending on AI infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and data centers is approaching saturation, leaving technology stocks vulnerable if spending begins to slow. In his view, a significant stock market correction could temporarily pressure many asset classes before ultimately strengthening demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
Maharrey and Weldon also discussed the bond market and Federal Reserve policy. Weldon believes rising long-term interest rates reflect slowing economic growth, tightening financial conditions, and increasing fiscal concerns rather than healthy economic expansion. While higher yields can create short-term headwinds for gold, he argued that expanding government debt and deteriorating fiscal conditions ultimately leave policymakers with few options other than renewed monetary stimulus.
Regarding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, Weldon praised his communication skills but questioned whether the Fed can realistically maintain a hardline stance against inflation. He believes any meaningful economic slowdown or stock market decline would force policymakers to abandon restrictive monetary policy and return to quantitative easing and money creation, despite public commitments to fighting inflation.
Inflation, food prices, and energy market challengesAnother major focus of the interview centered on inflation, particularly rising food costs. Weldon argued that weather-related disruptions remain one of the most overlooked inflationary risks. He pointed to historically low snowpack across the western United States, declining fog moisture in Northern California, and NOAA's forecast for an unusually severe El Niño expected to persist into April of next year. According to Weldon, these conditions threaten agricultural production across multiple regions, including sugar production in Thailand and coffee crops in Brazil and Vietnam.
He also warned that petroleum markets remain structurally tight despite hopes that geopolitical tensions could ease. With crude oil reserves at historically low levels and food inflation likely accelerating alongside energy costs, Weldon believes inflation will remain well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target, placing policymakers in an increasingly difficult position.
China, rare earth minerals, and the long-term case for GoldThe interview concluded with a discussion of global geopolitics and strategic resource competition. Weldon argued that China has built a substantial long-term advantage through its control of rare earth minerals, commodity supply chains, and growing gold reserves. He noted that China, Russia, and Vietnam control more than 80% of the world's rare earth resources, leaving the United States heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for many critical materials used in advanced manufacturing and defense.
Weldon believes these geopolitical trends, combined with mounting U.S. government debt, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure on the dollar, reinforce the long-term investment case for physical gold and silver.
Throughout the interview, he emphasized that investors should focus less on short-term market volatility and more on preserving purchasing power through ownership of tangible assets as the global economic and monetary landscape continues to evolve.
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses part of its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap following a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.34, up 0.37% on the day, after briefly climbing above $60 earlier during the Asian trading session.
XAG/USD has traded largely within a $55.00-$62.00 range in recent weeks, with hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations capping upside attempts.
Could Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision trigger Silver’s next directional move?The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although a surprise hike cannot be ruled out. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of an immediate increase.
A surprise rate hike would likely be the most bearish outcome for Silver. Higher interest rates would strengthen the US Dollar and push US Treasury yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver. Such an outcome could trigger a break below the lower end of its recent range at $55.
A hawkish hold could also put the $55 support level at risk if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasises persistent inflation concerns and signals that a rate hike later this year remains likely.
On the other hand, a dovish hold could provide relief for Silver, although it is not the base-case scenario. If the Fed adopts a less hawkish tone than markets expect, traders could scale back rate-hike bets, increasing the chances of a recovery above $62.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias despite showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are struggling near the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.75.
Momentum shows tentative improvement, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory, hinting that selling pressure is losing intensity rather than that a bullish reversal is underway.
The 21-day SMA at $58.75 offers immediate resistance, followed by $62, the upper boundary of the recent range. A decisive break above this level could expose the 50-day SMA at $65, followed by the 100-day SMA at $70.94.
On the downside, $55 provides initial support. A daily close below this level could open the door toward the psychological $50 mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Death Cross and $55 Support Test Weigh on Long-Term Trend The market recently tested the $55 level for support, where it bounced, but we can see a series of lower highs and lower lows on the chart, although it has stabilized somewhat in the recent past. The headlines coming out of the Middle East will continue to be influential as to where we go next, and with that, I think this is a market that will remain very noisy.
Over the longer term, we should go looking to the overall momentum to pick up and eventually break out of this malaise. The question, of course, is which direction? Unfortunately, this is a market that, like many other markets, has to contend with erratic headlines that influence inflation coming out of the Middle East. And as long as that’s the case, it’s hard to trust anything.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.43 per troy ounce, up 2.26% from the $58.12 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.39% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.93 on Monday, down from 69.73 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies on Monday and trades around $59.45 at the time of writing, up 2.27% on the day. The white metal benefits from a sharp decline in Oil prices following renewed hopes for de-escalation between the United States (US) and Iran, a backdrop that strengthens expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from major central banks.
Military tensions between the two countries have paused after US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said US President Donald Trump had decided to suspend military strikes to allow more time for diplomacy. According to Reuters, an Iranian official also stated that Tehran would halt its attacks as long as Washington does the same.
This development is weighing heavily on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by nearly 8% at the time of press. Lower energy prices help ease concerns over persistently high inflation, reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening and supporting non-yielding assets such as Silver.
At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar (USD) are providing additional support to the precious metal. Investors have scaled back expectations for further interest rate hikes as inflation risks linked to energy prices continue to fade.
Market attention now turns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely scrutinize the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further clues about the future path of monetary policy.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG) trades sharply higher near $60.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a firm note as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has sent oil prices sharply lower.
The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused after US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, told "Fox News Sunday" that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports.
In the Asian trade, the WTI Oil price trades 5.6% lower to near $84.00. A sharp decline in oil prices has reduced concerns of a prolong elevated inflation expectations, which has eased fears of higher interest rates by global central banks in the near term.
The Silver price underperformed in the last months when the onset of the Middle East war boosted oil prices. Technically, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $60 at press time, striving to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $59.35.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifts toward the mid-40s and hints at modestly improving momentum rather than outright bearish exhaustion.
On the topside, a decisive daily close above the 20-day EMA at $59.35 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper recovery. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The most striking signal in this week's Commitments of Traders report came from feeder cattle, where positioning reached a bullish extreme that took almost two years to develop.
Readings of this length are unusual. They show that the current positioning structure has moved beyond the range seen in the previous 100-plus reports, making the signal more meaningful than a short-lived weekly fluctuation.
The feeder cattle reading is also consistent with the broader picture in live cattle. Commercial participants recorded a larger-than-average change in their net position for the second consecutive week, with both markets currently leaning toward higher prices in the near term.
Why the feeder cattle extreme mattersCommercial participants are directly involved in the underlying physical market and generally use futures to manage business risk. Their positioning should not be interpreted as a straightforward speculative trade, but unusually stretched readings can still reveal when the balance of exposure has changed materially.
A two-year extreme does not guarantee an immediate rally, and COT data is not designed to provide precise entry timing. It does, however, identify feeder cattle as a market where positioning has become historically unusual and where the current structure supports a bullish interpretation.
The similar signal in live cattle adds weight to that conclusion. When related markets begin to show aligned commercial positioning, the broader sector picture becomes more relevant than an isolated move in a single contract.
New Zealand dollar posts its largest bearish shift in a yearThe New Zealand dollar produced the clearest bearish change signal among the currency markets in the latest report.
Commercials recorded their largest change in net positioning over the past year. Price has already started to move lower, which means the positioning signal is beginning to receive confirmation from the market itself.
That distinction is important. A large weekly change can show that positioning is turning, while subsequent price action helps indicate whether the market is responding in the same direction. In the New Zealand dollar, the current combination remains bearish, although the move should still be assessed alongside the broader US dollar trend and incoming macroeconomic developments.
Soybeans show bearish positioning before price reactsSoybeans present a different type of setup. The latest COT signals lean bearish, while price has not yet made a decisive move in response.
The market is also approaching a significant resistance area. This creates a potentially important test: if price struggles at resistance while positioning continues to weaken, the bearish case would become more convincing.
For now, the signal remains developing rather than confirmed. The value of the COT data is that it can highlight a change in market structure before that shift becomes obvious on a standard price chart. Traders should therefore watch how soybeans behave around resistance and whether the next reports reinforce or weaken the current positioning pattern.
Silver approaches a 124-report extremeSilver is showing one of the most historically stretched readings in this week's report.
Large speculators have reached a 124-report extreme, a level that also took close to two years to form. In my view, this type of positioning may indicate that a bottom is beginning to develop.
That interpretation requires caution. Extreme positioning can persist, and it does not confirm that the final low is already in place. However, readings that extend across more than 100 reports deserve attention because they show that speculative exposure has moved to a level rarely seen in recent history.
The next step is to watch whether price begins to stabilise and whether subsequent COT reports show the positioning extreme starting to reverse. A combination of historically stretched positioning and improving price action would provide stronger evidence that a bottoming process is underway.
The key takeawayThis week's data presents three distinct positioning stories.
Feeder cattle has reached a rare two-year bullish extreme, supported by another constructive commercial shift in live cattle. The New Zealand dollar has produced its largest bearish commercial change in a year, with price already moving in the same direction. Soybeans are showing a developing bearish setup near resistance, while silver's 124-report large-speculator extreme may be an early sign that a bottom is forming.
None of these readings should be treated as standalone trading signals. Their value lies in showing where major participant groups are changing exposure, where positioning has become historically stretched and where the market may be approaching an important transition.
Price shows what the market has already done. Positioning can provide additional context about who is behind the move and where the balance may be shifting next.
I explain the full report and walk through every chart in this week's COTbase video review
Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year yield hit near 4.71% Thursday, the 2-year pushed near 4.37% and crude crossed $100. Silver held together through all of it and then turned higher Friday when crude and yields backed off. The shorts who pressed into that setup expecting follow-through did not get it and some of those positions had to come off Friday morning.
The 10-year is trading closer to 4.68% Friday. That is still elevated but the direction changed and for a market that had been absorbing higher yields all week, a pause was enough to bring in buyers. Brent slipped below $100 as traders booked profits after the sharp weekly run and WTI eased with it. That took the edge off the inflation pressure and gave the Treasury selloff room to stall.
FOMC and Oil Keep the Ceiling Low The covering rally does not change the rate picture. Fed funds futures are still pricing a meaningful chance of a hike at next week’s meeting even though a hold remains the most likely outcome. The probability of additional tightening through early 2027 is higher than it was before crude started running and Warsh does not have to raise rates to put pressure back on silver. A statement focused on elevated energy costs and sticky inflation does the same job because the bond market has already been doing the tightening work on its own.
Iran is still restricting Hormuz traffic. Saudi Red Sea routes are under pressure after Houthi attacks on tankers this week. Trump threatened a broader attack on Iran and a fresh escalation puts crude back in control fast. Friday’s pullback gave silver room but that room disappears if the next headline sends crude back toward triple digits and the yield trade reignites.
Silver has dropped to 58.590 on the weekly chart, breaking beneath the $60 base of its 2026 range after peaking near $128. Source: TradingView The silver market rallied during the trading week to break above the $60 level at one point in time, but as we head into the weekend, it looks like $60 is going to continue to be important. With that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that has a lot of decisions to make here, and a market that, quite frankly, will remain noisy and concerned about the idea of interest rates being higher than usual. As interest rates climb, typically that will put downward pressure on silver, and that is something worth keeping an eye on.
Key Market Levels If the market can break sustainably above $60, that would be a big victory. The 50-week EMA currently sits at $63.68, but pay close attention to the last couple of candlesticks right around $55. We’ve seen support there, so if that were to give way, that would obviously be a technically bearish signal. If that happens, we could see other assets moving as well, as it would be a decidedly “risk-off” signal.
Silver trades at 58.610, slipping under the $60 floor of its months-long range after peaking near $128 in January. Source: TradingView The silver market has shown itself to be somewhat positive in early pre-market trading, but ultimately, this is a market that just continues to grind back and forth. The market continues to see a lot of questions asked of the $60 level. The $60 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure in an area that previously had been important. We have sliced through it a couple of times now, and generally speaking, most people believe that is a sign of the market getting rid of that importance. We’ll just have to wait and see whether or not there is still going to be importance attached to it.
Key Market Levels The 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA a while ago, about 6 or 7 sessions ago, kicking off the so-called death cross. More important for the session on Friday, interest rates in America did drift a little bit lower. That generally can help silver as it is highly sensitive to interest rates, but at this point in time, it’s more or less about the idea that silver is a very negative market. It has been drifting lower for a while, and sellers continue to return anytime there seems to be an overbought condition.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $58.55 at the time of writing on Friday, up 2.24% on the day, benefiting from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) following its recent rally. The white metal is attempting to recover after Thursday's sharp correction, although it remains exposed to a macroeconomic backdrop that continues to weigh on non-yielding assets.
The US Dollar edges slightly lower, providing temporary support for precious metals. However, the move remains limited as US Treasury yields stay close to their recent highs, with investors continuing to price in the risk of more persistent inflation.
Higher Oil prices remain at the centre of market concerns. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the escalation of the Middle East conflict are fuelling fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. This backdrop reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have to keep interest rates higher for longer, or even consider another rate hike if inflationary pressures continue to build.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets continue to price in a meaningful chance of further monetary tightening in the coming months, supporting the US Dollar and limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to intensify. US military strikes against Iran are ongoing, while media reports suggest that US President Donald Trump is considering a large-scale military operation against Tehran. This environment of heightened uncertainty continues to support safe-haven flows, although the US Dollar is benefiting more than precious metals, helping explain Silver's limited recovery despite the Greenback's pullback.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver traded near $57.76 on Friday and remained on course for a weekly gain of around 3.4%. The metal retained that weekly advance despite Thursday’s 3.4% decline, but the recovery remains tentative.
The immediate question is whether buyers can reclaim $60, the top of its 100-EMA bollinger band®.
A sustained move above this level would improve the short-term structure, allowing Silver to catch a breather before either:
Getting rejected back to 55.59-57.21.Or rising towards 61.50 to 64.Potentially reaching $68 or $71, previous zones of consolidation or resistance.Since mid-May, silver has repeatedly struggled beneath its four-hour 100 EMA band, shown by the blue area on the chart. The band is set at half a standard deviation and has acted as dynamic resistance during the decline.
Buyers may now be preparing to challenge it. Silver has bounced from the area surrounding its June low, while stochastic RSI momentum appears stretched following the recent sell-off.
However, being oversold does not mean the decline has ended.
Silver still needs to close above the EMA band and reclaim $60 before the bounce becomes technically more convincing.
That would open the way towards the $61.50 to $64.00 resistance zone. The upper end of this range is the more important test because a break and hold above $64 would provide stronger evidence that buyers have regained control.
It would also complete the neckline break required for the potential double-bottom pattern. This would bring $71 into view as the approximate measured-move target, with $68 acting as another resistance.
The setup would weaken if silver falls back through its June low. Until the EMA band and $60 are reclaimed, this remains a possible reversal rather than a confirmed bullish breakout.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.40 per troy ounce, up 1.98% from the $57.27 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.84% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.50 on Friday, down from 70.72 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Key takeawaysSilver trades near the 57.0–57.6 participation zone as investors evaluate the latest manufacturing signals across Europe, the United States and Asia.Manufacturing expectations are gradually stabilizing, supporting industrial metals through improving production activity while financing conditions and energy costs continue shaping business confidence.Industrial fabrication, electrification and technology investment remain the principal structural demand channels supporting silver.The Renko structure has entered a Compression phase, indicating that participation is rebuilding while markets await stronger confirmation from the global manufacturing cycle.Silver follows the manufacturing cycleSilver enters Friday's session with market attention increasingly centered on the industrial economy.
This week's macro calendar has progressively shifted the focus away from inflation releases and toward manufacturing conditions across the major economies. The European Central Bank delivered an unchanged policy decision, while investors continue evaluating how manufacturing activity is responding to evolving financing conditions, energy prices and business confidence.
For silver, this transition carries particular importance.
Industrial production remains the dominant transmission channel connecting macroeconomic activity with physical demand.
Every improvement in factory utilization supports fabrication demand.
Every increase in technology investment strengthens consumption across electronics, automation and power infrastructure.
Every expansion in manufacturing activity reinforces participation across industrial metals.
Silver therefore continues reflecting the quality of the production cycle rather than the direction of monetary policy alone.
Manufacturing expectations continue improving across major economiesRecent macroeconomic releases describe a manufacturing environment that is becoming progressively more balanced.
The Eurozone manufacturing sector has continued recovering from the contraction that dominated much of the previous two years. Factory output has improved, production expectations have strengthened and inventory rebuilding has gradually returned across several industrial sectors. Reuters also notes that activity has benefited from easing cost pressures and a recovery in new orders, providing a firmer foundation for industrial production.
In the United States, manufacturing activity has remained above the expansion threshold, indicating that industrial demand continues supporting production despite higher financing costs. Markets now await the latest PMI figures to evaluate whether this stabilization can extend into the second half of the year.
Japan continues contributing positively to the global industrial picture. Factory production has expanded at its fastest pace in several years, supported by electronics, advanced manufacturing and export-oriented industries, although logistics and energy costs continue influencing business planning.
Together, these developments suggest that manufacturing expectations are becoming more stable across the major industrial economies.
Industrial demand continues defining silver's identitySilver occupies a unique position within the industrial economy.
Electrification.Power grids.Semiconductors.Industrial electronics.Automation.Artificial intelligence infrastructure.Solar installations.Each sector contributes to fabrication demand through different investment cycles.
This diversification increases the resilience of industrial participation because demand develops across multiple technologies simultaneously.
The Silver Institute continues projecting another annual market deficit, while mine supply expands only gradually. Supply elasticity therefore remains limited even as fabrication techniques continue improving material efficiency.
A modest improvement in industrial demand can therefore generate a disproportionately larger effect on market participation whenever available supply adjusts more slowly than consumption.
This interaction remains one of silver's defining structural characteristics.
Manufacturing quality matters as much as manufacturing growthIndustrial participation depends on more than production volumes.Energy costs influence operating margins.Credit availability shapes investment decisions.Inventory rebuilding determines procurement activity.Business confidence influences capital expenditure.Each transmission channel contributes to the pace at which fabrication demand develops.The current macro environment therefore supports a gradual rebuilding of industrial participation rather than an immediate acceleration.
Markets continue evaluating the quality of manufacturing recovery across regions while monitoring how businesses respond to financing conditions and input costs.
Silver naturally reflects these adjustments because industrial demand represents the largest component of its long-term consumption profile.
Technical structureThe Renko chart illustrates a market transitioning into a participation rebuilding phase.
Following the advance toward the 60.6 area, silver has entered an orderly consolidation above the long-term EMA200, preserving the broader recovery established during recent weeks.
Price currently trades below the EMA9 and EMA21, reflecting moderation in short-term participation while maintaining the broader structural framework.
Silver enters a Compression phase as manufacturing expectations stabilize, industrial demand remains resilient and participation begins rebuilding across industrial metals.The EMA200 continues rising beneath current prices, confirming that the medium-term trend remains constructive despite the recent consolidation.
The most significant signal comes from the ECRO, which currently reads 6.3 and has entered a confirmed Compression regime.
Participation has returned to very low levels.
Energy is gradually rebuilding.
Delta ECRO has improved to +6.3, indicating that institutional participation is beginning to recover from the recent compression phase.
The stochastic oscillator continues rotating lower toward oversold territory, remaining consistent with a market redistributing participation before its next directional expansion.
Immediate participation develops between 57.0 and 57.6.
Initial resistance emerges near 58.6, followed by the broader participation objective around 59.8–60.0.
The technical structure remains aligned with a market waiting for stronger confirmation from the global manufacturing cycle.
Bird's eye viewSilver continues functioning as an industrial participation asset.
Manufacturing expectations are gradually stabilizing across the major economies.
Industrial fabrication remains supported by electrification, technology investment and infrastructure development.
Supply elasticity continues limiting the market's ability to respond rapidly to changes in fabrication demand.
The Renko structure mirrors this macro environment through a confirmed Compression phase, where participation is rebuilding while investors wait for the next catalyst capable of reactivating industrial momentum.
OutlookSilver enters the final trading session of the week with manufacturing expectations becoming the dominant macro reference for industrial metals.
Upcoming PMI releases, the evolution of industrial orders and business investment will continue shaping fabrication demand during the coming weeks.
As long as manufacturing participation continues improving and supply elasticity remains constrained, silver is likely to remain closely linked to the quality of the global industrial cycle rather than short-term fluctuations in monetary policy.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges up on Friday's early European trading session, returning to levels above $58.00 as the US Dollar trims some gains. The precious metal is set to a moderate recovery this week, but the risk-averse scenario triggered by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the higher US Treasury yields triggered a 4.3% reversal on Thursday that leaves Silver vulnerable to further depreciation.
Market sentiment remains unfavourable, with Oil prices rallying and Brent crude drawing closer to the key $100 level, as reports of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea increased concerns about the blockade of another key corridor for Oil supply. Investors' fears that a new energy shock will boost inflation pressures have sent US Treasury yields to multi-month highs, pushing the US Dollar higher across the board and weighing on the yieldless precious metals.
Meanwhile, a report from Axios suggests that US President Trump would be pondering a "massive attack" on Iran that might further entangle the conflict, increasing demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
Technical Analysis: The reverse trendline has capped bears
XAG/USD trades at $58.33, holding within the last two weeks' horizontal range, with downside attempts supported above the broken trendline from June highs. Momentum indicators endorse the neutral near-term bias, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding slightly in negative territory, hinting that buying pressure is moderate rather than impulsive.
Bulls, however, will have to breach the top of the mentioned range, at the $60.70-$60.90 area, and the early July highs, around $62.50, to confirm a trend shift. On the downside, first support emerges at the broken trendline, now at $56.50, with additional protection at the year-to-date low of $54.77. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-June selloff at $50.26 emerges as the next target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after registering over 4% losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. However, higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are strengthening bets on Fed rate hikes, threatening to weigh on non-yielding Silver.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran.
Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price dives over 3.80% on Thursday as the precious metals segment tumbles amid overall US Dollar strength and heightened risk aversion amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The XAG/USD trades at $57.62 after hitting a weekly high of $60.94.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe white metal remains downward biased, despite recovering some ground after bouncing off yearly lows of $54.77. The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, an indication that the downtrend might extend in the near.term
Momentum-wise, remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed its course towards the 50-neutral level, aiming lower in bearish territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the price below the July 17 low at $54.77. Once hurdled, the next stop is the $50 milestone. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the November 21, 2025, swing low of $48.64
On the other hand, if buyers move in and drag Silver above the July 22 day’s high at $60.94, it opens the path towards challenging the July 6 high at $63.38. Above the next key resistance is the psychological $64.00, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $65.79.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Climbing Yields and Geopolitical Risk Keep Pressure on Silver To the upside, the market did reach the $63 region at one point a couple of weeks back. That has been a bit of a swing high. The 50-day EMA is racing towards that area and offering a potential ceiling as well. If the market were to attack that indicator, it would be a significant shift in momentum, probably fueled by risk-taking behavior around the world, not just here in the silver market.
Right now, the uncertainty in the Middle East continues to drive inflation expectations higher, driving rates higher, which consequently will typically work against the value of silver. This has been the case for some time now, and that correlation will be something that a lot of people will be watching.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.84 per troy ounce, down 1.67% from the $59.83 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.23% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.54 on Thursday, up from 69.03 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading practically flat, a few cents below the $60.00 level on Thursday, with upside attempts capped as US Treasury yields jump to fresh highs. The precious metal was rejected at the $61.00 area on Wednesday, but the following reversal found buyers at the middle range of the $58.00s earlier in the day.
Markets remain in a cautious mood as the war in Iran threatens to extend through the region. US and Iran have exchanged attacks for the 12th consecutive day, and reports of attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels in the Red Sea have sent Oil prices to their highest levels since early June, spurring inflationary pressures and pushing US Treasury yields higher. This is likely to keep Silver bulls in check during the next sessions.
Technical Analysis: The immediate bias remains positive
XAG/USD trades at $59.70, holding above the broken downward trendline, consolidating gains after a 7.5% rally in the last four trading days. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still positive, although showing fading momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the horizontal barrier around $60.70, which capped bulls on July 9, ahead of July's top, at the $63.30 area. On the downside, the session low at $58.46 is likely to provide some support ahead of the broken trendline, now at $55.50, and the year-to-date low, at $54.72.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers near the $58.25-$58.20 zone during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from the $61.00 neighborhood, or an over two-week high. The white metal, however, lacks follow-through and currently trades just above the mid-$59.00s, down over 0.40% for the day.
This week's breakout through the $59.00 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the June 17 high – was seen as a key trigger for XAG/USD bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.21 stays in positive territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains mildly positive. Momentum indicators together suggest that upside momentum is still constructive despite the latest pause, backing the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
In the meantime, any subsequent move up is likely to confront initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $61.31. This is followed by the 50.0% level at $63.28 and the 61.8% retracement at $65.25, with the 78.6% barrier at $68.05 acting as a broader cap. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 100-period SMA/23.6% Fibo. level confluence at $58.99, while a deeper pullback would expose the structural anchor of the current cycle near $54.94.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver daily chart, hovering near 59.40 at the lower end of its range. Source: TradingView The silver market rallied slightly during the trading session here on Wednesday, with the $60 level offering a little bit of resistance. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and we have seen a 50-day EMA drop below the 200-day EMA, showing the death cross. The death cross, of course, is a negative sign for traders who are more long-term based.
That being said, it’s interesting with rising interest rates, we are still trying to rally in silver, and we are seeing the overall market trying to ignore the interest rate situation in America. As long as that ends up being the case, I think you will get a little bit of volatility and push and pull, but it’s hard to argue with the idea that silver is in a downtrend because of this. This is a market that is trying to turn things around, but will have a lot of work to do to change the overall attitude.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $59.35 at the time of writing on Wednesday, up 0.94% on the day, as persistent safe-haven demand offsets the negative impact of rising inflation expectations. The white metal remains supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, even as the sharp rebound in Oil prices reinforces expectations that major central banks may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extends its rally to around $86.60 per barrel after the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait intensified concerns over global energy supplies. The waterway represents a key route for global energy shipments, and the latest disruption has reignited fears of supply shortages. According to BBC News, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the Saudi blockade of ports and airports in Houthi-controlled areas.
Higher energy prices are increasing concerns about a new wave of inflation, a development that could encourage central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. Such an environment would normally weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver by pushing bond yields higher.
However, investors continue to favor precious metals as geopolitical uncertainty boosts demand for defensive assets. The conflict between the United States (US) and Iran, together with mounting risks to global energy flows, has supported inflows into traditional safe havens, helping Silver remain resilient despite the headwind from rising rate expectations.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision. While policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors will focus on comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for fresh clues on the inflation outlook and the future path of monetary policy.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.50 per troy ounce, up 1.19% from the $58.80 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.29% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.21 on Wednesday, down from 69.34 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gives back some of its early gains, but is still 0.8% higher at around $59.25 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The white metal struggles to extend the rally beyond the psychological level of $60.00 due to a fresh surge in oil prices amid escalating Middle East energy supply risks.
In European trade, the WTI Oil price is up more than 2% at around $86, the highest level seen in over five weeks.
Higher oil prices boost fears of hot inflation expectations, a scenario that forces global central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Theoretically, hawkish monetary policy expectations bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fears of a further squeeze in the energy supply from the Middle East are prompted by the closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway of the Red Sea, from which 7% of global energy is transported.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a 'maritime embargo' on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for a Saudi blockade of ports and airports in Houthi-controlled north-western Yemen, BBC News reported.
Going forward, the next trigger for the Silver price will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday, in which the central bank is expected to leave policy rates steady. Investors will pay close attention to commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the inflation outlook.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $59.34 at press time. The white metal has recovered to near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.68, improving its near-term bias.
The EMA slope is still declining, suggesting rallies are likely to face selling interest near that barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.49 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued upside momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is clearly defined by the 20-day EMA at $59.68, and a daily close above this level would be needed to extend the recovery towards the July 6 high at $63.28. A decisive break above the latter would trigger a bullish reversal, confirming the checklist of the Double Bottom formation. Looking down, the July low at $54.77 will be the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Middle East tensions keep Brent elevated as Rabobank warns energy markets cannot take the summer offAnalysts at Rabobank underline that emerging signs of a “threatened blockade of Saudi ports” are already feeding through to energy pricing, cautioning that this development “will not allow energy markets to ‘take the summer off’ rather than taking off.” The bank notes that “we are at $91.5 on Brent at time of writing with crack spreads still round $70,” underscoring the degree to which geopolitical risk is being reflected in current market levels.
ING’s commodities team notes Gold and Silver have extended gains on dip-buying and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. They highlight Gold trading above $4,000/oz and Silver near $60/oz, supported by safe-haven flows and stronger industrial metals sentiment. ING expects Gold to stay sensitive to energy markets and US monetary policy, with Silver potentially outperforming if industrial strength persists.
Precious metals lifted by dip-buying"Gold and silver extended gains, supported by bargain hunting after recent weakness and investors continuing to assess geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The move came despite lingering concerns that higher energy prices could add to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts."
"Gold climbed back above the $4,000/oz level, while silver outperformed, trading close to $60/oz. Silver’s performance reflects not only its safe-haven appeal but also support from improving sentiment across the industrial metals complex, particularly copper."
"The rebound appears driven more by fresh buying interest following a period of consolidation rather than a material shift in the geopolitical or macroeconomic backdrop. While tensions in the Middle East remain supportive for precious metals, markets are weighing softer US economic data against the inflationary risks from higher energy costs."
"Gold is likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy. Silver could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around $59.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Silver prices are surging despite rising rate-hike expectations, as powerful market forces outweigh the drag of higher interest rates. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, institutional investors are possibly fleeing equities and channeling capital into tangible safe-haven assets like Silver.
However, the potential upside for the non-yielding metal may be limited, as escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices fuel inflation fears and keep interest rate expectations elevated. US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of immediate negotiations with Tehran following mutual military strikes and threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants to disrupt Red Sea shipping routes. On Tuesday, Trump pledged to respond if the group interfered with the waterway, though he did not outline specific action.
In response, Iran's top military command stated via the Xinhua news agency that Tehran will expand its strikes to target US and allied assets across the region if the US attacks Iranian nuclear facilities.
On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Warsh has repeatedly stressed that inflation remains a key concern for the central bank. This cautious stance has been echoed by several other Fed officials in recent weeks as they navigate ongoing economic pressures.
Policymakers have now entered their customary blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Despite this anticipated pause, expectations for tighter policy remain elevated beyond July. In fact, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are currently pricing in over 71% odds of at least a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming September meeting.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges over 4.50% on Tuesday, reaching five-day highs, clearing $59.00 as buyers push the white metal to test a downslope resistance trendline near the $59.65/$50.75 range, about to surpass the $60.00 mark.
XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, it seems XAG/USD is about to break a downtrend resistance line, which could open the door to a recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining momentum, suggesting Silver could test higher levels in the near term.
If XAG/USD clears $59.75, the immediate test would be $60.00. A breach of the latter opens the path to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.89 ahead of the June 22 daily peak at $67.17. Above, the next area of interest would be the psychological $70.00.
On the downside, Silver’s first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $56.11. Below lies $55.00, followed by the November 13. 2025 high turned support at $54.39, followed by the $55.00 milestone.
XAG/USD daily price chart
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies to around $58.85 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 4.31% on the day. The white metal is supported by strong safe-haven demand as investors continue to monitor escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades higher after resuming its advance, as markets remain concerned about the impact of the conflict on global energy supplies. Although diplomatic efforts are still underway, with Tehran reportedly receiving a proposal through mediators for a 10-day cessation of strikes to revive negotiations, investors remain cautious as military exchanges between the two countries continue.
Typically, rising Oil prices increase inflation expectations, reinforcing the prospect of higher interest rates for longer and weighing on non-yielding assets such as Silver. However, the precious metal is currently defying that traditional relationship, with safe-haven demand proving strong enough to offset the headwind created by higher energy prices.
Analysts at ING noted that the foreign exchange market is increasingly reflecting developments in the Gulf, highlighting that geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets. The bank added that the US Dollar (USD) has also benefited from the deteriorating security backdrop, although safe-haven flows remain broad enough to support precious metals as well.
On the monetary policy front, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting. Investors will closely monitor the updated economic projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh guidance on the timing of any future policy adjustments.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
So, all things being equal, while this is a nice bounce, it really hasn’t fundamentally changed much as far as technical analysis is concerned. We’re just seeing more of the same behavior. There are, more likely than not, going to be a lot of sellers just above waiting to get involved, so at the first signs of exhaustion, there will be people very concerned about holding onto silver, would be my estimate.
To the downside, the $50 level has been both support and resistance in the past, mainly resistance though. It has been the top of the market multiple times until recently, going all the way back to the 1970s and the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market. Because of that, I would anticipate a lot of noise in that area if we do start to fall apart.
Market outlook: Gold, crypto and US indices test important breakout levels At the time of this market review, precious metals and major cryptocurrencies were producing some of the clearest bullish signals. US stock indices were also recovering, although several important resistance levels still stood between a rebound and a more convincing bullish continuation.
Can the US stock index recovery continue?S&P 500 futures recovered from support and turned higher. A sustained move above the previous high near 7,550 could open a path toward 7,600. Another rejection from 7,550, however, would leave the recovery vulnerable.
The Dow Jones also recovered after briefly trading below support. For the Dow Jones cash index, 52,150 is the main bullish confirmation level. Acceptance above it would suggest that buyers are regaining control.
Educational insight: A market touching resistance is not the same as breaking it. Acceptance generally means price remains above the level for a meaningful period and successfully defends it during a pullback.
Are gold and silver still bullish?Gold has broken above an important resistance structure extending from its April high. The 4,040-4,045 area could now act as support if price returns to test it.
Holding above that zone would preserve the bullish structure. Sustained trade back below it would warn that the breakout may have failed, particularly if buyers cannot quickly reclaim the area.
Silver also defended major longer-term support before turning higher.
Two additional metals are approaching important confirmation levels:
Platinum: A sustained move above approximately $1,710 would strengthen the case for a larger advance. Palladium: Buyers need to clear approximately $1,375 before the broader outlook becomes more convincingly bullish. A useful concept here is the support-resistance flip. When price breaks above resistance, traders often watch whether the same area becomes support during the next pullback. If it does, the breakout gains credibility. If it does not, the move may have been a temporary overshoot.
What levels matter for Bitcoin and Ethereum?Ethereum has cleared an important longer-term resistance area, placing approximately $2,150 on the map as the next potential upside objective.
Bitcoin also looks constructive after defending major support near $57,000. With price recently around $65,500, the $64,000 area becomes an important short-term reference:
Holding above $64,000 supports bullish continuation. Sustained trade below $64,000 would weaken the breakout. A failed breakdown followed by a quick recovery above $64,000 could show that buyers are still active. Can crude oil break through resistance?Crude oil has recovered toward possible resistance near $90, while Brent crude faces a comparable test around $95.
Acceptance above these areas would improve the bullish outlook. Rejection, especially after only a brief move through resistance, could lead to another pullback.
Round numbers such as $90 and $95 often attract additional activity because traders use them for entries, exits and option positioning. That does not make them automatic turning points, but it can increase volatility around the initial test.
Why does cocoa remain vulnerable?Cocoa is one of the clearer bearish exceptions in this market review. Price rejected overhead resistance and could revisit the $5,000 area. A temporary move below that level is also possible if selling pressure accelerates.
The important distinction is whether cocoa merely touches $5,000 or begins spending time below it. A quick recovery could indicate that sellers failed to establish control, while sustained trade underneath would reinforce the bearish case.
These levels may refer to different instruments, including futures, cash indices and spot markets. Prices can vary between platforms, contracts and CFDs, so readers should confirm the corresponding levels on the instrument they trade. This analysis is educational and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.96 per troy ounce, up 4.54% from the $56.40 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.05% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.92 on Tuesday, down from 71.06 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying, favoured by a mild US Dollar weakness on Tuesday. The precious metal is testing one-week highs at the $59.70 area at the time of writing as investors hope that mediators’ efforts to achieve a new ceasefire between the US and Iran are offsetting fears that the conflict might escalate out of control.
US attacked Iran for the 1th day in a row, and Iran responded by targeting US assets in Gulf Countries. The key Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Iran-backed Houthis have announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi Arabian vessels, which might further strangle Oil supply.
Markets, however, are keeping the faith that efforts to cease hostilities will succeed, which explains the mild reversal on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Axios reported earlier on Tuesday that the Trump administration is exploring the peace proposal and that it has urged Israel to avoid steps that might close the diplomatic window.
Technical Analysis: Bulls breached the descending trendline
XAG/USD trades at $58.97, after breaking the descending trendline resistance from late May, early June highs, with momentum indicators supporting the bullish view. The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (14) is getting close but not yet at overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator extends gains in positive territory, hinting that buyers remain in control while price presses into nearby overhead levels.
Bulls seem to have met some resistance in the middle range of the $59.00s, which capped rallies on July 14 and 15. Further up, a support-turned-resistance at $63.10 and a similar area just ahead of the $67.00 level are the next targets.
On the downside, the broken trendline, now at $56.45, and the year-to-date low, a few cents below $55.00, are likely to challenge bears. If these levels are broken, sellers might feel attracted by the late October 2025 low, at $48.64.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver continues to balance between its dual role as an industrial metal and so-called refuge asset, and this combination largely explains the lack of a clear trend in recent weeks. Shifting expectations for central bank interest rates can influence the appeal of a non-yielding asset such as silver, while the structural supply deficit remains supported by growing investment demand, offsetting more subdued industrial consumption. These opposing forces help explain why silver prices continue to trade within a broad range, with the market still lacking a decisive catalyst for a sustained directional move.
XAG/USD: Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, silver (XAG/USD) is trading within a structure resembling a triangle. The descending trendline connects the swing highs formed after the peak near $63.000, while the ascending trendline links the series of higher lows from the $56 area. Their convergence coincides with the current high-volume area of the market profile.
Following an attempted breakout, the price is now testing the lower boundary of the profile at $56.643 from below. If this level continues to act as resistance, the next notable support could be found near $54.846.
Should the price move back into the range, the Point of Control (POC) at $58.357 and the upper boundary of the profile at $59.895 could become the primary upside reference levels, followed by the red resistance level at $60.686.
At the same time, vertical volume has not shown the decline in trading activity that is typically associated with a triangle pattern as the range narrows. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 45, 40, and 42. The moving averages remain red, are pointing higher, and are positioned just below the neutral zone, while the RSI line itself has yet to break out of that neutral range.
Summary The attempted breakout from the triangle has so far failed to gain momentum, with the price returning to the market profile boundary. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs indicator does not yet confirm either a bullish or bearish scenario. The Federal Reserve meeting on 28–29 July could become the next major catalyst, potentially determining the market’s next directional move.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) is up over 3% to near $58.20 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal surges as the rally in oil prices has halted amid hopes of renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States (US) and Iran after significant military aggression in the past few weeks.
At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 0.45% lower to near $81.90. On Monday, the WTI Oil price corrected after posting a fresh monthly high at $84.42.
Since the onset of the Middle East war, higher oil prices due to energy supply disruption de-anchored global inflation expectations, which intensified fears of interest rate hikes from various central banks. This scenario boded poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fresh hopes of US-Iran war de-escalation emerged after a spokesperson from Tehran confirmed receiving a proposal of 10-day cessation of strikes with the US from mediators to find ways to revive the interim deal, which fuelled investors’ confidence that negotiations between nations is still on.
On the US interest rate front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is highly anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $58.12, but is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.65. The price action sits under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.94 has recovered from oversold readings but still points to only moderate, corrective upside pressure rather than a sustained bullish move.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.65, and a decisive break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the door to a more meaningful recovery. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the third straight day and climbs back above the $57.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal, however, remains below the overnight swing high, with bulls awaiting a breakout through a short-term descending trend-line hurdle before positioning for further gains.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at stabilizing momentum. Hence, a sustained move beyond the aforementioned barrier should pave the way for additional gains. The XAG/USD might then climb to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the monthly top near $58.06, en route to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, just ahead of the $59.00 round figure.
The latter nears the 50% retracement level and acceptance above this would be needed to ease the current bearish bias, which should open the way to higher retracement objectives. However, a failed attempt to conquer this confluence would suggest that rallies remain vulnerable while that barrier stays overhead. Meanwhile, higher barriers are seen at the 61.8% level at $60.04 and the 78.6% retracement at $61.46.
On the downside, immediate support comes from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $56.83, and a drop back below this pivot would likely reassert selling pressure and expose the structural floor near $54.84.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday as buyers defend the $55.00 mark after the metal briefly slipped below it on Friday, touching its lowest level since December 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $56.85, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
The metal, however, lacks strong upside momentum as Middle East tensions support the US Dollar, while energy-driven inflation risks keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations alive. Meanwhile, the technical outlook remains bearish, even as momentum indicators point to a slowdown in selling pressure.
Silver positioning pares back as demand signals softenAccording to TD Securities, speculative appetite for the metal continues to fade, with the bank noting that “money managers have also reduced their long silver exposure, which will apply downward pressure on prices due to weakening industrial and investment demand.” This retrenchment in positioning underscores a more cautious stance toward silver as both industrial usage and investor interest show signs of cooling.
Technical analysis: Daily chart
XAG/USD remains well beneath the 200-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 stays below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest downside momentum, with the slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hinting at tentative attempts to stabilize after the latest slide.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near $60, followed by a stronger cap around $65. A sustained break above these levels would ease selling pressure and expose the 200-day SMA at $70.58 and the 100-day SMA at $72.24 as the next hurdles.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $55, with a loss of this floor opening the way toward the $50 zone, where buyers would likely attempt to stem deeper losses.
Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart
XAG/USD holds a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.94 and the 200-period SMA at $62.43.
The metal has bounced off recent lows but is still capped by a nearby horizontal barrier at $58, while the Relative Strength Index at 47 stays near neutral and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns mildly positive, hinting that the latest recovery is corrective rather than a clear trend reversal.
On the topside, immediate resistance stands at $58.00, followed by the 100-period SMA near $58.94 and then $60.00, with the 200-period SMA at $62.43 and the prior horizontal cap at $65.00 reinforcing a broader supply zone overhead.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of $55, and a break beneath this floor would likely expose the metal to deeper losses within the prevailing bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The 50-day EMA has recently broken below the 200-day EMA indicator, opening up the possibility of a more bearish attitude, as it is the so-called Death Cross. It tends to attract a lot of headlines, but the reality is that it’s the stronger US dollar and stronger interest rates that have been the biggest thorn in the side of silver bulls. This remains the biggest obstacle that is obvious to me.
Geopolitical Headwinds and Technical Support Floors The situation in the Middle East continues to be a major problem for silver as it’s just taken some of the luster out of this market. That being said, silver is still undersupplied, objectively speaking, around the world, and therefore, longer-term, it’s probably got quite a bit of demand to push it higher in the electrification trade, for example.
That being said, it does look like a market that continues to punish rallies, and it’s worth noting that the $50 level below is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, going all the way back to the late 1970s, and therefore, I suspect traders are looking to test that again.
As things stand right now, every time this market’s rallied, the sellers have returned, so something to keep in mind. Silver continues to be a messy market at this point in time, but the longer-term picture is, of course, a lot different than the action that we have seen in the recent past.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $56.90 per troy ounce on Monday at the time of writing, gaining 1.6% on the day. The precious metal continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment under pressure.
The United States (US) has carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Tehran considers the ceasefire between the two countries effectively over, raising concerns about further disruptions to key regional energy supply routes. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that intermediaries have delivered messages to Tehran in recent days aimed at reducing tensions, while stressing that diplomacy remains a tool to pursue the country's national interests.
Concerns intensified further after Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising fears of additional disruptions to energy trade. Against this backdrop, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounded from daily lows to near $82.00 per barrel at the time of press, increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressures.
Higher energy prices are reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening. Speaking on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said inflation remains persistent, strengthening expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign a 55.3% chance to a Fed rate hike in September.
The prospect of higher interest rates is typically a headwind for Silver as the precious metal does not generate yield. However, strong safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions is currently allowing the white metal to maintain a bullish bias despite this unfavorable backdrop.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $56.83 per troy ounce, up 1.49% from the $56.00 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 20.05% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.74 on Monday, down from 71.77 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver briefly slipped below the key $55 level on Friday but quickly regained its footing as the new week began, despite Brent crude gapping above $90 following another escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The lack of additional selling is notable. Throughout last week, higher oil prices fueled expectations of renewed inflation pressure, lifting Treasury yields and the Dollar while weighing on precious metals. Yet even after another round of geopolitical deterioration over the weekend, silver failed to attract fresh downside momentum, suggesting much of the bearish repricing had already taken place.
Why didn’t silver extend its decline? The answer lies in how markets interpreted the latest developments. Brent had already surged more than 17% last week, its biggest weekly gain since April, meaning investors had substantially priced in the risk of a prolonged disruption to Middle East oil supplies. The weekend headlines largely reinforced that narrative rather than introducing a fresh shock. At the same time, Brent itself struggled to build on its initial break above $90 during Asian trading, helping stabilize broader inflation expectations. As oil retreated back below $90, silver recovered further, indicating that bearish conviction is beginning to fade even though macro conditions remain challenging.
Can diplomacy prevent another wave of selling? There are still reasons for markets to avoid pricing the most disruptive outcome. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said negotiations with the US could continue if they serve Iran’s national interests, adding that intermediaries have continued exchanging messages despite the latest US strikes and military casualties. Those comments keep diplomacy alive and support the view that the Strait of Hormuz blockade could ultimately prove temporary rather than permanent. However, the path remains highly uncertain. If negotiations fail to produce visible progress over the coming days and Brent resumes its advance toward $100, markets would likely rebuild inflation expectations once again, lifting yields and the Dollar while exposing silver to another round of selling pressure.
What does the technical outlook suggest? Technically, the broader near-term outlook remains bearish as long as resistance at 59.66 caps rebounds. Following the break of 55.59 support, the decline from 121.83 is still expected to extend toward the psychological 50 level, which sits close to 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.35.
Nevertheless, downside momentum is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. Bullish convergence on the 4H MACD suggests sellers are losing control despite the latest geopolitical headlines. A firm break above 59.66 would confirm short-term bottoming and open the way for a stronger recovery toward 63.25, with scope to extend further to the 55 D EMA, now at 65.76. Such a move would likely coincide with a clearer path toward de-escalation in the Middle East and renewed easing in oil prices.
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HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 20.07.2026 Silver hopes to find support
XAGUSD (The Silver) finds a bounce
XAGUSD (The Silver) halts the ongoing bearish rally as the recent pullback is hampering efforts of a further drop.
The precious metal slightly licks it wounds by testing the support of 55.00. The said area is key as bears could be eager to ignore a rebound after sentiment remains downbeat. On the flip side, 57.50 looks to be a crucial level for bulls to turn their attention if buyers can re-enter the market.
EURUSD spiraling lower
The euro is hoping to turn momentum around as prices hit another low.
Since firm resistance was found around the 1.1480 zone, more buyers have closed their positions. 1.1460 is a major hurdle for the Euro to recapture this month’s losses. Then a close above 1.1520 at the previous swing high is vital to ease the selling pressure. Otherwise, a further correction might send the euro towards 1.1340. GER 40 finding bullish trend
The Dax weakened as the ongoing Middle East conflict has shaken up indices across the board.
A break below 24900 dented the market mood in the near-term. However, with prices now moving into a bullish channel, buyers are hoping for continuation. A lift above 24900 will help bulls regain confidence as prices look to regain the 25400 level. On the flip side, 24400 is an important support to avoid a further sell-off.
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Silver (XAG/USD) sticks to its modest intraday gains during the early European session on Monday and currently trades just below the $57.00 mark, up over 1.50% for the day. The white metal, however, remains within striking distance of its lowest level since December 2025, around the $54.80-$54.75 region touched on Friday, amid a mixed technical setup.
The price action between two converging trend-lines constitutes the formation of a bullish reversal pattern – falling wedge – on the 4-hour chart. However, repeated failures to make it through the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the said chart favor the XAG/USD bears. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned modestly positive, hinting at a mild recovery attempt. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 still points to only tentative demand after a prior oversold phase.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the reclaimed break area of the descending trend line near $57.24, where prior rallies have been rejected. The subsequent hurdle emerges at the 100-period SMA around $58.98, which reinforces the broader bearish structure. Unless bulls can force a sustained move above these caps, the XAG/USD is likely to remain vulnerable to renewed selling on intraday rebounds, with downside levels to be defined by fresh price action, given the lack of nearby mapped supports in the current dataset.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $56.80 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the non-interest-bearing white metal could face tough sledding ahead as United States (US)-Iran clashes drive oil prices higher, and resurfacing inflation risks are fueling expectations for Fed rate hikes.
The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region's narrow waterways.
The conflict has rapidly intensified across the region, triggering air raid sirens in Bahrain after Iran launched a fresh wave of ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting sites across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq. Meanwhile, the US military reported the death of a third service member within the span of two days amid the ongoing exchanges.
The violence has also expanded beyond strictly military targets to hit critical infrastructure, with bridges, utilities, and port facilities coming under fire. Over the weekend, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. confirmed that an Iranian strike struck one of its oil facilities on Saturday.
While the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 61.4% probability of a rate hike in September.
Hammack flags broad-based inflation pressures, reinforcing hawkish Fed toneFed’s Hammack delivers a notably more hawkish message, with a 7.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing above the 6.6/10 historical average and underscoring heightened concern about persistent price pressures. The emphasis on businesses calling for action to curb inflation and consumers “who can’t make ends meet” despite solid growth and stable spending highlights a tension between resilient activity and mounting social strain, while references to energy, supply chains, insurance, and AI data centers point to a broad-based and structurally complex inflation mix. By framing “persistently high inflation” as the bigger concern, the speech tilts expectations toward a tighter-for-longer policy stance, supportive of the Dollar on the margin.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 2.06 points to 128.64, reinforcing that the broader Fed communication backdrop remains firmly in hawkish territory well above the 100 neutral line. In combination with the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score for Hammack, this move signals that recent Fed rhetoric continues to lean toward prioritizing inflation control over growth risks, a configuration that typically underpins the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price recovered some ground on Friday, up 0.84%, but it is poised to finish the week down over 6.50%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $56.00 per troy ounce, after reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of $54.77.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe white metal ended the week on the back foot as XAG failed to reclaim the $60.00 psychological barrier, which could’ve opened the door for a recovery and challenged the July 6 high at $63.28. Nevertheless, the downward market structure remains intact, and after refreshing yearly lows, it could open the door to testing the November 13, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39.
Momentum remains downward-biased as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
The first support is $55.00. Below lies the November 13, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39, followed by the November 21, 2025 swing low of $48.64. On the other hand, if XAG/USD reclaims the $60.00 mark, expect a move towards the July 6 swing high at $63.28. On further strength, the next resistance would be $65.00, followed by the 50-day SMA at $68.01.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
