Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower at around $60.95 on Thursday at the time of press, down 1.73% on the day. The precious metal is facing profit-taking as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) advancing about 0.30% to trade near the psychological 100.00 level.
The stronger US Dollar reduces Silver's appeal for holders of other currencies. At the same time, safe-haven flows continue to support the Greenback as investors monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite reports that Iran and Oman are moving closer to a temporary agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors also remain focused on developments in the Oil market. Hopes that supply disruptions could ease continue to support expectations of lower Oil prices, a scenario that would help contain global inflation pressures and reduce the likelihood of monetary tightening by major central banks.
Market attention is now turning to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Following mixed labor market indicators earlier this week, including a weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report, the official employment figures are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path as investors continue to reassess the outlook for interest rates.
Traders will also closely monitor the reaction in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar following the NFP release, as both remain the main short-term drivers for Silver prices.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $60.94, retaining a mildly neutral-to-bearish tone as the metal holds above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $59.76 and the 200-period SMA at $58.88, yet remains capped by a descending trend-line resistance coming in around $61.59. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 suggests fading upside momentum after the recent pullback, hinting that rallies towards the trend-line could struggle unless buyers regain control.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the previously resistance $60.00 level, with the 100-period SMA at $59.76 and the longer-term 200-period SMA at $58.88 reinforcing a broader demand zone ahead of the more distant horizontal floor at $56.60. On the topside, the downwards-sloping resistance trend line at $61.59 is the first barrier bulls need to clear to ease the current cap on prices and open the way for a more constructive short-term recovery towards the recent high at $62.91.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower Thursday after hitting its highest level since July 6 at $62.91. At first, the breakout over the 50-day moving average at $62.36 suggested the buying was getting stronger. However, the sudden reversal and break back under the 50-day moving average suggest the move may have been a bull trap.
The 50-day moving average, today’s intraday high at $62.91 and the July 6 swing top at $63.28 are now resistance levels.
The first downside target is the long-term 50% level at $60.835. If a test of this level fails to bring in buyers, look for a potential break into the retracement zone at $58.84 to $57.89.
Since the swing chart trend indicator turned up Wednesday, traders may have shifted into buy-the-dip mode. The first area they are likely to defend is $60.835, followed by $58.84 to $57.89. They are likely to remain in this mode until the swing bottom at $56.64 is violated.
A sustained move over the intraday high at $62.91 could trigger a test of $63.28. Taking out this swing top would reaffirm the uptrend and put the 200-day moving average at $71.01 on the radar.
What to Watch Silver ran hard for two sessions on lower oil, a falling dollar and shrinking rate-hike odds. All three stalled Thursday and the metal is pulling back from the overnight high. The rally was a macro relief trade and macro relief trades need the relief to continue. Friday’s payrolls is the catalyst. Soft hiring and weaker wages keep the dollar under pressure and give silver room to hold above the breakout. Firm wages and solid hiring put the September trade back together and the pullback from $62.91 has further to go.
The breakout above the 50-day moving average failed to hold and that is a concern. Buyers who shifted into buy-the-dip mode after Wednesday’s trend change have to defend the first support area or the rally loses credibility fast. A strong jobs number on top of a failed breakout gives sellers everything they need.
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto two-day gains at around $62.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly amid hopes of a further decline in oil prices.
In the European trade, the WTI Oil price trades 0.9% higher at around $75, but is closer to its three-week low of $73.51 posted on Wednesday.
Lower oil prices keep global inflation expectations in check, a scenario that diminishes fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Brent holds below $80 as hopes build for US–Iran deal on Strait of HormuzAnalysts at ING highlight that "ICE Brent continues to trade below $80/bbl as the market pins its hopes on a deal between the United States (US) and Iran" that would "resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz." They note that Iran has "signalled progress toward this goal," having announced it has reached "an agreement with Oman on new shipping arrangements for the strait," with "a joint statement on the deal now being prepared," reinforcing market expectations of a potential easing in supply-route tensions.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. Investors will pay close attention to the official employment data, as its impact is likely to be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations, given than the central bank has stopped providing forward guidance.
ADP slowdown reinforces TD Securities view of moderating US job gainsAccording to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)," reinforcing their view that job growth is cooling after a strong start to the year. The bank stresses that it does "not put much weight on ADP when it comes to m/m moves in NFP," but notes that "the trend in the data is in line with what we are expecting." They highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer," and judge that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains," consistent with their expectation of softer official payrolls prints ahead.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $61.85, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.43. The metal has reclaimed higher ground after its recent pullback, and the positioning over the short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains in place.
Momentum, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.71, stays in mildly positive territory, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA at $59.43, where a break would signal fading bullish pressure and force a return to the July 17 low at $54.77. Looking up, the July high at $63.28 is the key hurdle for the Silver price; above that, it could extend the advance towards the June 22 high at $67.17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.01 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.06% from the $62.05 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 12.77% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.06 on Thursday, up from 68.46 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates gains in the $61.70 area after being rejected ahead of $63.00. The pair is trimming gains on Thursday, after following a nearly 7% rally over the last two days, but downside attempts remain limited so far, as lower Oil prices and a weak US Dollar keep providing support.
US macroeconomic data released earlier this week has failed to impress, raising fears about a poor Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday and prompting traders to scale back hopes of a Federal Reserve rare hike in September. US Treasury yields have dropped, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year note shedding about 10 basis points from last week's highs, while the 2-year yield, closely related to monetary policy expectations 18 basis points below July's peak. Lower yields tend to drive investors towards the yieldless precious metals.
Technical Analysis: The immediate trend remains bullish while above $60.70
XAG/USD trades at $61.72, showing a corrective reaction, as the last two days' rally was looking overextended. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling back from overbought levels but remains in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is above zero, all in all showing that buyers retain control.
The near-term bias remains bullish while above a previous resistance at the $60.70-$60.95 area, which capped bulls several times in July. Further down, Wednesday's low, at $59.40, might provide some support ahead of the weekly low, near $56.50.
On the upside, bulls are likely to struggle at July's peak, near $63.30. Further up, the next target is the June 22 high, just above $67.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver breakout above the June to August range is riding on fresh optimism over a potential US-Iran deal, though the move is not yet confirmed.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down the technical picture for silver and the geopolitical driver behind the move.
Hilal works through what a sustained hold above former resistance would take to confirm the breakout, and where silver could find support if the US-Iran talks break down. A longer six-month chart adds the other side of the story, where a shooting star pattern and a golden-ratio Fibonacci retracement mark a historic confluence zone.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $62.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of the non-yielding Silver gains momentum as news of a deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, significantly easing broader market concerns surrounding inflation and the outlook for interest rates.
The shift comes as Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route through the strategic waterway, boosting global expectations for increased Middle Eastern energy flows. A joint statement from both nations is currently in its final drafting stages. While the proposed route is slated to operate for two to four months, Tehran made it clear that this arrangement does not represent a complete reopening of the strait.
Oil timespreads underscore speculative pressure rather than weaker fundamentalsAccording to TD Securities, the current structure of the oil market suggests that recent price moves are being driven more by positioning than by any material shift in underlying supply-demand dynamics. Strategists there highlight that “this time around, timespreads remain much stronger, which is the clearest signal that spec flows chasing headlines are doing the heavy lifting as opposed to any loosening of the fundamentals.” In their view, the resilience of timespreads reinforces the message from physical flows that the crude market remains fundamentally tight, even as headline risk and speculative activity exert outsized influence on day-to-day price action.
Meanwhile, economic data in the US added to the market dynamics. ADP figures released on Wednesday revealed that US private-sector employment grew by just 44,000 jobs in July, a sharp deceleration from the 98,000 added in June that fell well short of the 70,000-market consensus. With labor market cooling in focus, traders are now closely watching Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Fed’s Cook flags inflation risks but keeps rate hike option conditionalFed’s Cook speech scores 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 6.5/10 historical average, signaling a slightly more forceful tone relative to the established baseline. The remarks balance recognition of a sturdy job market and resilient expansion with a clear emphasis that inflation threats surpass job market concerns, underscoring a firm commitment to restoring price stability while keeping rate hikes conditional on the disinflation trend failing to reappear. Overall, the message leans hawkish on inflation risks but stops short of pre-committing to imminent tightening, which is supportive for the Dollar and broadly cautious for risk-sensitive assets.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.93 points to 140.92, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains well above the neutral 100 threshold, showing that Fed communication is still firmly in hawkish territory even as the immediate tightening impulse eases slightly according to the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker.
Technical Analysis: XAG/USD gains amid prevailing bullish biasXAG/USD trades around $62.20. is holding a near-term bullish bias as it advances above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76 while still trading below the 50-day EMA at $62.69, which caps the topside for now. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.81 leans constructive, suggesting firm positive momentum, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 140.92 hints that broader macro sentiment remains supportive rather than euphoric.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 50-day EMA at $62.69; a clear daily close above this barrier would open the door toward the next structural hurdles at $90.03 and $96.62, though these latter levels remain distant in the current trading context. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA at $59.76, ahead of the horizontal floor at $55.63.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD Current price: $62.00Tepid United States data weighed on an already weak US Dollar.Hopes for a quick solution to the Middle East conflict boosted the mood.XAG/USD trades at a fresh one-month high and aims to extend its recovery.Silver flirted with $63 on Wednesday, its highest in over a month amid renewed market optimism. Investors welcomed news hinting at a soon-to-come deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
XAU/USD traded as high as $62.78 early in the American session, following headlines indicating that the US Treasury lifted counter-terrorism sanctions imposed on three airlines and two aircraft linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three airlines.
A Treasury official clarified that the decision was not related to US negotiations with Iran over a possible deal to end hostilities in the Gulf, according to Reuters, yet market players dropped the Greenback on hopes that a deal is closer. The encouraging headline was reinforced by reports suggesting that a deal between Oman and Iran is done, pending Tehran's approval.
The USD was also pressured by local data, as the ADP Employment Change survey showed that the US private sector added measly 44K in July, missing expectations of 70K and below the 98K recorded in June. Also, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 54.1 in July, slightly better than the previous 54, although below the 54.5 expected.
XAG/USD short-term technical outlookBroad USD weakness keeps precious metals near recent highs, with XAU/USD now hovering around the $62 level.
In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $62.00, extending its recovery above the critical $61 mark, a former relevant low now an immediate relevant support. The pair holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $59.32 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $58.15 and $58.99, respectively, which now underpin the uptrend. The Momentum indicator gains modest upward traction above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around 74, far from signaling exhaustion but instead reflecting the latest advance.
In the daily chart, Silver retains a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 20-day SMA at $58.30, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $69.22 and $71.06, respectively, remain well overhead, signaling that the broader trend is still capped despite the latest rebound. Momentum has improved, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 and the 14-day Momentum indicator turning firmly positive, which suggests buyers currently have the upper hand.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the short-term 20-period SMA at $59.32, followed by the 200-period SMA at $58.99 and the 100-period SMA at $58.15, where any dip would likely attract fresh demand while these levels hold. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $69.22, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.06, a cluster that is likely to act as a tougher supply zone if the rally extends. Once beyond it, however, the path towards $100 will be much clearer.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) jumps more than 4% on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data and easing energy-driven inflation prompt traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $62.30, near its highest level in a month.
From a technical perspective, the latest leg higher has improved the near-term outlook. However, the broader trend remains cautious as Silver approaches key resistance levels.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD has reclaimed the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.31 and is now challenging the 50-day SMA at $62.65.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays above zero. Both indicators suggest that bullish momentum is building.
Immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $62.65. A daily close above this level would open the way toward the $65.00 barrier, followed by the 100-day SMA at $69.22. On the downside, the 21-day SMA at $58.31 offers initial support, ahead of the horizontal floor near $55.50.
Weekly chart
On the weekly chart, XAG/USD trades below the 50-week SMA at $65.94 and the 21-week SMA at $68.64, keeping the broader outlook bearish. The weekly RSI stands at 45, while the MACD remains below zero, suggesting that the latest advance has yet to develop into a broader bullish reversal.
On the upside, the $65.00 mark offers initial resistance, followed by the 50-week SMA at $65.94. A sustained break above this zone would bring the 21-week SMA at $68.64 into focus. On the downside, support is located near $55.50, followed by the 100-week SMA at $49.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) has found some resistance at the $61.90 area on Wednesday, before pulling back to $61.24 at the moment of writing, but remains above the top of the last four weeks’ range, at the $60.90 area. The white metal appreciates for the second consecutive day, supported by lower US Treasury yields, as soft US data and lower Oil prices have dampened expectations of immediate Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Analysts at MUFG observe that the US Dollar has faced renewed selling since last week’s FOMC meeting, with the “dollar index back below the 100.00-level after hitting a high at 101.64 last week.” They highlight this pullback as evidence that the latest bout of Dollar weakness has extended in the wake of the policy decision.
On Tuesday, US Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings missed expectations, and investors pared back hopes of a quarter-point rate hike in September to 58% from 67% a day before, according to data by the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. The market will be attentive to the US ADP employment report due later on Wednesday and, above all, to the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, to confirm those views.
Technical Analysis: A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern in progress
XAG/USD trades at $61.35 at the time of writing, on track for a nearly 6% rally over the last two days. Price action has breached the neckline of a bullish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern at the mid $59.00 highlighting a constructive near-term bias. Bulls, however, must breach July's top, at $63.12, to confirm a trend shift.
Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are supportive. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 68, flirting with overbought territory, which warns about the possibility of a bearish correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive and continues to edge higher, reinforcing the bullish tone.
On the topside, above session highs at $61.90, the next target is the mentioned July's top, at $63.12. Further up, the H&S' measured target is around $65.65. On the downside, immediate support emerges at session lows, around $59.35, which is also the headline of the H&S formation, ahead of the late-July lows at the $56.65 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
A sustained move over the 50-day moving average will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the next swing top at $63.28. Taking out this top would put the 200-day moving average at $70.92 on the radar.
On the downside, a sustained move back under the major 50% level at $60.835 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, look for a near-term pullback to $58.00.
What to Watch Silver needs crude staying lower, yields staying contained and the dollar staying under pressure. All three lined up this week and that is why the move has been fast. If any one of them reverses, the rally gets tested.
Friday’s jobs report can either extend this trade or kill it. A weak number with softer wages keeps the dollar unwind going and gives buyers room to push toward the 50-day moving average. A strong print with firm hiring, hands Schmid and the rest of the hawks exactly what they need, and the rate trade reassembles.
The swing chart trend has changed to up but buyers are chasing a macro relief trade, not a structural shift. They have momentum as long as the data cooperates. The moment it stops cooperating, sellers have a clean level to come back in at.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.52 per troy ounce, up 2.87% from the $59.81 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 13.45% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.64 on Wednesday, down from 68.18 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold and silver are tracing bullish breakout risks above their June-August consolidations as market optimism grows over a potential US-Iran deal. However, geopolitical risks continue to persist.
As silver breaks above $61 and gold reclaims $4,100, key developments to watch include:
The DXY maintaining its position above its 2026 uptrend and the 99.30 support level. DXY analysis Crude oil holding above $70. Crude oil analysis Inflation uncertainty related to the prolonged disruptions across the Middle East remaining a key concern. Should headlines continue to progress toward a sustainable resolution, market uptrends are expected to extend. However, any deterioration in negotiations could trigger significant downside risks as market sentiment quickly reverses.
To minimize headline noise, price action analysis helps clarify the technical scenarios ahead.
Gold Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a six-month perspective, gold is rebounding from one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.
The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels in 2026. The close of a six-month shooting star reversal pattern. However, given the significance of this support zone and the fragile nature of the US-Iran situation, a sustained break below this confluence and the 3,930 support level would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.
Whether gold continues its rebound from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:
Crude oil price direction. Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve's policy outlook and US Treasury yields. US Dollar (DXY), USD/JPY Forecast: Key Levels to Watch Gold Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
In line with the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold is tracing a bullish breakout above the June-August contracting consolidation, ranging between 3,930 and 4,200, and above the descending resistance guiding price action since March 2026.
Key support: 3,960-3,930
Gold Bullish Scenario
A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers.
That would expose the next resistance levels near the 23.6 – 27.2% retracement of the yearly decline:
4,340 4,400 A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed.
Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to push into bullish territory, suggesting accelerating momentum.
Gold Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a break below the 4,020-3,960-3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.
The next downside objectives are:
3,880-3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700. 3,500-3,460, the well-respected five-month resistance zone throughout 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Silver Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.
A shooting star reversal candle. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price action facing the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support should another breakdown in silver prices occur below $55.
This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.
The shorter-term outlook suggests signs of bullish recovery, which becomes clearer on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026, while also holding above the June-August consolidation and the $61 resistance level.
At the same time, momentum indicators continue pointing higher, remaining above the neutral 50 level and supporting the short-term bullish outlook.
A breakout above $61 exposes $63.80, $68, and $72. A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Long-Term Outlook
A confirmed breakout above $72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.
Key Takeaway
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.
The 101.80-102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch for upside risks in the dollar and downside risks across currencies and precious metals. The 99.30 support zone remains the key level to watch for downside risks in the dollar and upside risks across currencies and precious metals. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Wednesday. The positive momentum lifts the white metal to the $62.00 neighborhood – the highest level since July 7 – during the early European session.
An intraday breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour and a two-week-old trading range hurdle near the $60.00 psychological mark were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.53 signals overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, suggesting that the upside momentum remains strong.
Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the $62.00 mark is likely to confront a hurdle near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline at $62.92. A sustained break there would expose higher Fibo. barriers at $67.98 and $72.08. On the flip side, initial support is pegged near the 200-period SMA at $59.04, ahead of the Fibonacci anchor near $54.73, where buyers could re-emerge on a more pronounced pullback.
Nevertheless, the constructive technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside as the latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD). Hence, any corrective slide could be bought into and remain cushioned amid receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which tend to benefit non-yielding commodities, including Silver.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.8% higher at around $60.95 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal attracts significant bids as oil prices face a sharp sell-off amid hopes of a resolution in conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.8% lower at around $73.80.
Global inflation expectations get anchored by lower oil prices, which diminish fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Hopes for US-Iran conflict resolution are backed by comments from US officials that a deal would be reached soon. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the critical chokepoint could be reached “as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday”.
However, financial markets are uncertain regarding whether ongoing talks would restore freedom of navigation through the critical chokepoint. So far, Iran has just confirmed that it is in talks with Oman over the charge of the Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
Deutsche Bank looks for modest pickup in US July payrollsEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect a slightly firmer US labour market print on Friday, projecting that the July payrolls report will show employment growth of “+65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading,” with “private payrolls … also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously.” Set alongside their projections for a 4.2% unemployment rate, with risks skewed toward 4.3% on higher participation, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month, the bank’s forecasts point to a still‑moderate pace of job creation consistent with nominal income growth running at around 4.4% year‑on‑year.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $60.95, holding above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.05, which now underpins a constructive near-term bias. The EMA offers underlying trend support as price advances away from the recent lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.23 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is building but not yet overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.05, where a pullback could find buyers to preserve the short-term uptrend. Below that, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level. Looking up, the Silver price could extend the advance towards the July 6 high at $63.28 if it manages to stabilize above $61.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a mildly positive tone near $59.50 per troy ounce on Tuesday, up 2% for the day, but falling from recent highs and leaving the metal locked in a tight range. Fading geopolitical tension weighs on safe-haven demand, while a softer United States (US) labor market reading limits the downside by keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook uncertain.
Al Arabiya reported that an announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected soon. Al Hadath suggested arrangements for a full reopening could be confirmed within hours. None of the reports have been officially verified, but they have already triggered a sharp unwind of the risk premium built into commodity markets during the conflict.
For Silver, the impact cuts both ways. The metal has benefited from defensive flows during the escalation, and a confirmed reopening of the waterway would remove that support. At the same time, cheaper energy and improved global trade conditions favor industrial activity. With roughly half of Silver demand tied to industrial applications, a durable easing of supply disruptions supports the medium-term consumption outlook.
On the macroeconomic front, the JOLTS report showed vacancies falling to 7.359 million in June from the revised 7.537 million and below the 7.4 million forecast. The reading points to continued cooling in labor demand and tempers the message delivered by Monday's strong ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which climbed to 55.6. Softer labor demand trims the odds of further Fed tightening, easing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The ADP Employment Change is expected to slow to 70K in July from 98K, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. A run of soft prints would revive expectations that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle, weakening the US Dollar and clearing the path for precious metals.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.40. The metal holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93, keeping a constructive bullish tone while it consolidates just under nearby resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 sits in positive territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but still shy of overbought conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at $59.49, ahead of the more notable horizontal barrier at $60.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges at $59.14, followed by $58.99, with the clustered moving average floor around the 20-period SMA at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93 expected to underpin the broader bullish bias on deeper pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver futures trade around 60.020, holding at the 60.000 level while staying below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately this is a market that is starting to test the $60 level yet again. This is an area that has been resistance previously, and then after that, the $62.50 level has been resistance. The 50-day EMA is the moving average that a lot of traders will watch. This is an area that is technical resistance as well, so it is worth paying attention to.
Lower Yields and Energy Inflation Concerns Ultimately, this is a market that is going to remain noisy, and it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the interest rate market. It has seen lower yields during the session, and that, of course, helped silver with the idea that silver will continue to move based on inflationary expectations and the idea that we are electrifying the overall economy and driving up the massive demand for silver eventually.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.86 per troy ounce, up 1.15% from the $58.19 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.20% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.91 on Tuesday, down from 69.70 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday. Investors’ hopes of a negotiated end to Iran’s war are providing a mild appetite for risk, and buoying precious metals, although the US Dollar Index (USD) has picked up from lows, which might keep a lid on Silver’s rally.
US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that this is the “last chance” for Iran to sign a good peace deal with the United States, but Tehran has denied any talks with the US or plans to hold them. Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits remains at very low levels, and reports of an attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman complicate matters further.
Technical Analysis: Silver appreciates within range
XAG/USD trades at $59.01, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias with momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart turning positive. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the zero line, suggesting that buyers are taking control.
Price action, however, remains within the mid-ranges of the last four weeks' horizontal channel. Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the $59.30 area (July 29, 30 highs) and at the $60.75-$60.90 area (July 10, 22 highs) ahead of the key resistance at the July 6 high of 63.28
On the downside, immediate support is at the $56.50 area, which capped bears last week. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the key support at the mid-July lows of $54.77.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $58.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver prices are receiving support as non-yielding assets benefit from geopolitical and economic monitoring.
Investors are closely tracking developments in United States (US)-Iran talks for signals regarding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously evaluating the broader outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Diplomatic tensions remain high after US President Donald Trump described his latest offer of discussions as a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major military strike. Trump expressed expectations that formal negotiations would begin shortly to secure the Strait of Hormuz and address long-standing US concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
However, Iranian leadership quickly dismissed the proposal. General Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected the conditions, declaring that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait. He further warned that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose would be targeted.
On the monetary policy front, market participants continue to recalibrate their expectations following the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady in July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting.
Williams reiterates confidence in Fed path as markets weigh inflation risksFed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring confidence that current rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve the 2% inflation goal. The repeated commitment to act if inflation drifts off the 2% path, alongside optimism that price pressures will gradually ease and that the Middle East war’s inflation impact will cool, signals a steady-hawk stance rather than an aggressive tightening bias. Acknowledgment of market pricing as “valuable information” but not binding, and the dismissal of financial stability risks from AI investment, reinforces a message of policy patience within a firmly anti-inflation framework.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.47 points to 146.76, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains deep in hawkish territory above the 100 neutral line. This suggests that, despite the slightly stronger-than-baseline tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker, markets see Williams’ remarks as consistent with an already well-telegraphed Fed stance rather than a fresh hawkish escalation.
Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan.
Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September.
Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.
On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.
Silver Remains Stuck Near Key Support At $56.00 – $57.00
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $57.20 at the time of writing on Monday, down 0.73% on the day, after a strong US manufacturing report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive monetary policy.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, beating market expectations of 54. The release showed that US manufacturing activity accelerated at its fastest pace in more than four years.
The report's underlying components also pointed to a resilient manufacturing sector. The Employment Index climbed to 52.8 from 49.7, signaling a return to payroll growth, while the Prices Paid Index eased slightly to 71.1 from 73 but remained above the market forecast of 70.3, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated.
According to Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, four of the five PMI sub-indices accelerated compared with June, confirming the strengthening momentum in the manufacturing sector.
The stronger economic data provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with greater flexibility to tighten monetary policy further in its fight against inflation. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, limiting the metal's upside despite the recent support provided by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Key Support Floors and Historical Resistance Levels The $60 level, at least right now, seems to be offering a bit of resistance, and we have the 50-day EMA at $63.45 offering a bit of a barrier. If we break down from here, the $55 level has offered support as of late, and a breakdown below that level would be a psychologically negative turn of events.
Silver could test the $50 level, which is an area that previously had been major resistance going all the way back to the late 70s when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market, the physical market. We recently broke through there, so a retest of that wouldn’t be the strangest thing to see. So, I am watching that as well.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.38 per troy ounce, up 1.37% from the $57.59 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.88% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.56 on Monday, down from 70.19 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) opens strongly due to a sharp decline in oil prices, but struggles to extend gains beyond $58.68 during the day. At press time, the Silver price is up 1% to near $58.20.
The white metal has started the week on a firm footing as lower oil prices due to the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran have anchored global inflation expectations.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that planned attacks on Iran have been suspended as Tehran has agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
The Silver price has underperformed significantly in the past few months as oil prices fuelled global inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
It is highly likely that the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) will restrict Silver’s upside. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect two further 25bps increases this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates next month are 64.5%.
Silver technical analysis
Bias: XAG/USD trades higher at around $58.20, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.79.
Momentum: The price's failure to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 stays in neutral territory on the daily chart, hinting at modest downside pressure rather than a decisive trend move.
Resistance: On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $58.79, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for $60.00.
Support: Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Weekly US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar reacts first when rate expectations shift. Silver follows. That is the order of operations this week.
The currency dropped after the Fed decision. Concerns about Japanese intervention added selling pressure and amplified the move lower. Silver ran on that unwind. Then U.S. yields recovered Friday, the dollar firmed and silver gave back ground with it.
There is no clean trend in the currency right now. Rate expectations pull one direction, intervention risk pulls the other. That creates a choppy environment where silver can get a strong one-day move and lose half of it the next morning.
The clean trade for the bulls is all three moving at once: September odds falling, yields dropping and the dollar breaking lower. Silver does not need the full package every session. But if the long end stays above 5%, the dollar has to give. Otherwise buyers have no room to work.
Payrolls Friday Settles the Week Payrolls Friday is the one number that can reprice September and move the dollar in a clean direction. Everything before it builds the narrative.
Fed speakers are back this week with the committee split out in the open. The three dissenters can explain publicly why they voted for action. Any speech leaning hard on inflation or wages can lift September odds and put a bid back under the dollar.
The labor data lands in sequence. Tuesday’s JOLTS report provides the first read on job openings. Wednesday’s ADP number gives another signal. Both can move yields ahead of the main event.
Strong job growth with firm wages is exactly what the dissenters need to build the case for September. That would send yields higher, firm the dollar and hand control to silver sellers.
The bulls need a miss. Slower wage growth, rising unemployment, or a headline that comes in below consensus pulls September odds back down and weakens the dollar. That is the only setup where silver gets room to extend last week’s rally.
What to Watch Three dissenters, a 30-year yield above 5.20% for the first time since 2007, and a Fed Chair who will not tell you what September looks like. Silver got a one-day reprieve when the dollar sold off. The bond market took it back. That is the problem. Every dollar decline runs straight into a wall of rising long-end yields, and until those yields roll over, rallies in this metal are borrows, not keeps.
Friday’s payrolls number is the only release this week that can actually reprice September in a lasting way. A miss below consensus with cooling wages gives the dollar bears something real to trade. Firm job growth hands Hammack and Logan and Kashkari the labor data they need to push the committee toward action.
Technically, traders are eyeing the long-term 50% level at $60.835 for direction. Overcoming it could lead to a test of the 52-week moving average. A failure to extend a rally over the pivot could lead to a retest of the July bottom at $54.78.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices climb as market sentiment shifted following statements from US President Donald Trump, who announced that peace talks with Iran are set to resume on Monday. The prospect of diplomacy helped send oil prices lower, offering relief to investors concerned about rising inflation and the broader outlook for interest rates.
President Trump noted that key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged him to halt planned military strikes in favor of a diplomatic solution, while he reiterated his call for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are turning their attention to a busy week of US labor market data, anchored by Friday's closely watched monthly jobs report. This economic focus comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady.
However, that decision was not unanimous; three Fed officials dissented, cautioning that delaying action could force the central bank into more aggressive policy tightening down the road. In response to these mixed signals, financial markets are currently pricing in roughly a 68% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming September meeting.
According to analysts at Commerzbank, the outlook for the other bullion, gold, remains constrained by the policy path in the US. They argue that “the persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price,” with ongoing tightening expectations limiting the scope for a sustained move higher even after the recent post-meeting spike.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday as rising US Treasury yields outweigh support from a weaker US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $57.50, down 2% on the day and on track to close July in negative territory.
The US Dollar stays under pressure following suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, hovers around 100, near six-week lows.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields move higher as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain tighter monetary policy or raise interest rates later this year. Hawkish Fed expectations weigh on non-yielding metals such as Silver, as higher borrowing costs increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets.
While macroeconomic headwinds persist, the technical outlook points to signs of near-term stabilization within the broader bearish structure.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD is consolidating above the $55 support area. However, the broader structure stays bearish as Silver trades below the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 sits below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued buying pressure. Meanwhile, the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that downside momentum is easing.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $58.50. A daily close above this level could support a recovery towards the 50-day SMA at $63, followed by the 100-day SMA near $70.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level around $55, with a deeper floor near $45 if selling resumes, keeping the metal vulnerable while it trades beneath its key moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of hesitation again for the week, as we are looking at the silver market with questions.
Silver Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver futures trade around 57.655, holding near the 60.000 level and above the 200-week EMA. Source: TradingView. The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of weakness again as we continue to see a lot of choppiness and noisy trading just under a big figure. The market rallying from here is a real possibility, with the market seemingly not wanting to break down, but we also have to worry about interest rates out there rising because rising interest rates typically work against silver. We have seen that play out here over the last couple of months.
Rising Interest Rates and Middle East Uncertainty Keep Silver in Stasis The market remains one that I think is in a bit of stasis at the moment. We just do not really know what to do, and why would we? The situation in the Middle East does not seem to be getting any better, and of course we have to consider that interest rates are extraordinarily high; that typically works against silver, as I said, but the market is trying to adjust to a new normal.
The $50 level below was an area that has been important multiple times in the past. There should be a ton of market memory there, all things being equal, and with that being the case, I think we need to be very cautious with this market. Position size will be crucial, as it typically is in a volatile market like this. Longer term, I do like silver, but right now I think we are just kind of hanging out here and waiting for some clarity for once. At this point, it’s a tricky situation.
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Interest Rates and Geopolitics Drive Volatility Longer term, I like silver a lot, very much so, and I do believe that silver will eventually turn things around, but it may have to drop yet again. The $50 level underneath is a large round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we’ve seen a lot of action going back to the Hunt brothers in the late 70s. Side note, I’ve actually had, when he was alive, conversations with Lamar Hunt; very interesting story when they tried to corner the physical silver market.
The $50 level was the peak back then, and then during the financial crisis it was the peak again. We broke through it late last year. Simple technical analysis suggests that maybe we have to retest that area. I don’t know if we will, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, that puts downward pressure on this market as well. Rallies at this point in time just don’t seem to have momentum.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.7% to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal continues to decline throughout the day as United States (US) Treasury Yields have bounced back amid fears that inflationary pressures will remain elevated.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.45% to near 4.68% after a weak performance in the opening trade.
Higher US Treasury Yields bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
In the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and policymakers expressed mounting concerns regarding inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target.
Fed rhetoric in focus as TD warns of risks for 10y TreasuriesAccording to TD Securities, the tone from policymakers will be critical once the Fed’s communication blackout ends. The bank expects that “hawkish comments by FOMC members” should help “restore some of the Fed's inflation fighting credibility,” aligning with its view that recent labour-cost dynamics remain broadly consistent with the inflation mandate. However, TD cautions that, against this backdrop, “we see significant risk of 10y Treasuries breaking through key technical levels in the coming days,” underscoring the potential for renewed volatility along the US rates curve.
Meanwhile, elevated oil prices due to fears of constrained global energy supplies are also supporting US Treasury yields. Middle East energy supply concerns are expected to remain prolonged as Iran intends to monetize the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply.
In addition to higher US bond Yields, a sharp rebound in the US Dollar (USD) after a three-day losing streak is also hurting the Silver price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 100.30.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.08 per troy ounce, down 1.59% from the $59.02 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.29% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.84 on Friday, up from 69.53 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The 30-year yield near 5.24% did not stop the rally and that is worth noting. The highest long-end print since 2007 is sitting right there and silver is climbing anyway. The dollar unwind is overpowering it for now. Two weeks of long-dollar positioning built ahead of the Fed meeting is coming off, and that flow matters more to silver today than what the bond market thinks about inflation over the next decade.
I would not count on that lasting. Warsh gave the market no dot plot, no projections and no promise to wait. He set it up so the next inflation print or payrolls report can put September right back on the table overnight. The dollar stops falling the moment that happens, and silver loses its one support.
Crude Decides How Long the Window Stays Open Oil is the reason the September debate did not die Wednesday. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has kept crude elevated, and the next inflation report picks up more of that energy cost than June’s data did. The three dissenters already have their argument on the record. One more firm print hands them the data to act on it.
Silver has a window right now between the Fed hold and the next set of numbers. Crude staying above $85 is what makes that window narrow. Every day oil holds here is another day the hawks can point to and say the inflation problem is getting worse, not better.
What to Watch September odds are the cleaner signal right now. If hike expectations keep falling and the dollar continues to unwind, silver holds the bid. If the odds start rebuilding on the next data release or another oil headline, the dollar finds a floor and sellers come back. FedWatch tells the story faster than trying to parse every sentence from Warsh’s press conference.
Silver has been sitting in the retracement zone for over a week and the Fed did not break it out. The accumulation pattern underneath the market gives buyers a foundation, but the longer-term investors building that base are not the ones who drive the breakout. Short-term speculators have to step in aggressively above the zone, and they are not going to do it with the 30-year above 5% and crude keeping the next inflation print in doubt. The rate picture has to keep cooperating or this range resolves lower.
Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after two days of gains, trading around $58.10 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Friday. The non-yielding white metal is facing notable challenges amid expectations for tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in an over 65% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Fed stays resolutely hawkish as Warsh doubles down on 2% targetWarsh’s press conference tone was more hawkish than usual, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 compared to the established baseline of 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the 2% inflation goal. The emphasis that “inflation cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the Committee “will not hesitate to act” signals a willingness to keep policy restrictive for longer, even as Warsh highlights “impressive resilience” in the economy and a solid labor market. Warsh’s insistence that there was a “misimpression” about tolerance for higher inflation and the clear pledge to “deliver the 2% target” reinforce a message that any perceived softening or tolerance for overshooting is off the table, a stance that typically supports the Dollar via higher-for-longer rate expectations.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by 18.94 points to 147.58, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score. A level this elevated signals that, in aggregate, Fed communication is being interpreted as materially more hawkish than neutral, reinforcing upside risks for the Dollar and keeping rate-sensitive assets on alert for further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance.
FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily ChartThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains after two days of losses, trading around 100.20 at the time of writing. Silver struggles as investors face a higher opportunity cost holding it compared to dollar-denominated interest-bearing assets like US Treasury bonds.
Despite these headwinds, the precious metal found some support this week after the US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged, even as mounting inflationary pressures lingered due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East.
However, broader inflation concerns may ease alongside cooling oil prices, driven by positive diplomatic developments. Progress in US-Iran talks aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz has helped calm energy markets.
Adding to the geopolitical shift, US President Donald Trump announced a historic deal outlining the complete disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a major breakthrough reportedly confirmed by senior Hamas officials.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
TL;DR: A weaker Dollar usually lifts Gold and Silver, but this week’s decline is being driven by fading Fed hike bets and a stock rally rather than falling real yields or safe-haven demand — leaving precious metals without their usual tailwind.
Why the Usual Dollar-Gold Relationship Isn’t Holding A weaker Dollar is usually regarded as a straightforward bullish signal for Gold and Silver. This week has been a timely reminder that the relationship is far more complicated. The Dollar has fallen broadly, with EUR/USD gaining around 1.3% for the week so far, yet the rebound in precious metals has been comparatively subdued.
Rather than confirming the familiar inverse Dollar-Gold relationship, the latest price action highlights a more important point: Gold and Silver respond not to the Dollar itself, but to the forces driving the Dollar.
What Kind of Dollar Weakness Actually Matters The key lies in understanding what kind of Dollar weakness the market is experiencing. Gold and Silver typically perform best when the Dollar is pressured by fear — during financial crises, recession fears, or aggressive declines in real interest rates. In those environments, a weaker Dollar and stronger safe-haven demand reinforce each other, often producing powerful rallies in precious metals.
This week’s price action, however, has been driven by almost the opposite set of forces.
Why the Dollar Actually Fell This Week The Dollar has softened because markets are becoming less convinced the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy again in the near term. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was interpreted as patient rather than urgent, despite three policymakers dissenting in favor of an immediate rate hike, and that view was reinforced by Thursday’s weaker-than-expected second-quarter GDP report and another cooling reading on core PCE inflation.
At the same time, risk-on sentiment staged a massive return. Microsoft’s blockbuster earnings and stronger cloud growth triggered a more than 15% rally in the stock, helping propel the NASDAQ up 2.78% and the Dow 1.19% on Thursday. Optimism spilled into Asia, where the KOSPI surged 17.91%. Rather than rotating into defensive assets, investors have been rotating into equities.
Why This Distinction Matters for Precious Metals That distinction explains why Gold and Silver have struggled to capitalize on the weaker Dollar. Precious metals don’t trade against the Dollar in isolation; they trade primarily off real interest rates and demand for protection. The Dollar often serves as a convenient proxy because it usually moves alongside US real yields.
When real yields fall, the Dollar weakens and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines, creating a powerful tailwind for Gold. Likewise, when markets become anxious, both the Dollar and Gold often benefit from safe-haven demand, though Gold can outperform if falling yields dominate. Those overlapping relationships are why the inverse Dollar-Gold correlation has become conventional wisdom.
Why Those Relationships Have Diverged This Week This week, however, those relationships have diverged. Treasury markets have remained remarkably stable, with the 10-year yield holding comfortably within its recent 4.6%–4.7% range instead of falling alongside the Dollar. Without a meaningful decline in real yields, Gold has lost one of its most important fundamental supports.
At the same time, surging equity markets have reduced the need for portfolio hedges, weakening safe-haven demand. As a result, the weaker Dollar has provided only a modest lift, while the absence of lower real yields and the strength of risk appetite have prevented Gold and Silver from mounting the kind of breakout investors often associate with broad Dollar weakness.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold and Silver Technically, Gold’s latest rebound delays rather than negates the broader bearish outlook. The consolidation from 3,942.23 appears to be extending into another recovery leg, with a break of 4,116.08 resistance now possible. However, gains should be capped by the falling 55-day EMA, currently at 4,214.50. Once the consolidation completes, a break below 3,942.23 remains the preferred scenario to resume the broader decline from 5,598.38.
Silver presents a similar technical picture. The corrective rebound from 54.77 could extend toward 60.92, but the falling 55-day EMA, now at 63.67, is expected to limit upside. Once the current consolidation phase runs its course, the broader downtrend is expected to resume with a break below 54.77.
Key Takeaways Gold and Silver have lagged this week’s broad Dollar decline because the weakness stems from fading Fed hike bets, not falling real yields or safe-haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield has held steady within 4.6%–4.7%, denying Gold the real-yield tailwind it typically needs to rally alongside a weaker Dollar. A risk-on surge — led by Microsoft’s earnings and a 17.91% KOSPI rally — has reduced demand for defensive hedges, further capping precious metals. Gold’s consolidation from 3,942.23 may extend toward 4,116.08, but the falling 55-day EMA at 4,214.50 should cap gains ahead of a resumed decline. Silver’s rebound from 54.77 faces a similar ceiling near its falling 55-day EMA at 63.67, with the broader downtrend expected to resume below 54.77.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down almost 1% to near $58.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds slightly, attempting to snap a three-day losing streak.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 100.20.
Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
However, the Silver price could rebound as the outlook of the US Dollar has become vulnerable following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it left interest rates unchanged and committed to “no forward-guidance” policy.
Dollar slides as Fed rhetoric fails to convince marketsStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the USD “dropped sharply for two reasons.” They explain that, first, “markets unwounded the residual 30% odds of a July hike,” and second, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “failed to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy.” BBH warns that Warsh “may now find himself in a more consequential battle with markets that can further raise long-term yields, weaken the dollar, and force the Fed into a more painful response.”
Elevated oil prices due to constrained global energy supply amid the ongoing military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran are likely to keep the Silver price’s upside limited.
Higher oil prices boost global inflation expectations, which forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $58.36, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.91. The positioning below this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies remain corrective for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 stays in neutral territory, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $58.91; a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a deeper recovery. Looking up, the next resistance level would be the July 22 high at $60.94.
On the downside, the July 28 low at $56.64 and the July 17 low at $54.77 are key support levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price advances for the second straight day and hits a three-day high above $59.00mid growing speculation of intervention in the foreign exchange markets, to boost the Yen, and weaken the Greenback. At tht time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $59.22
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe white metal, enjoyed eight days of consolidation, with no clear bias. However, the XAG/USD began to show signs of life, after reclaiming $59.00, though still respecting the downward market structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that neither buyer nor sellers are in charge, even though it sits in bearish territory. Worth noting that the index is aiming higher, since four trading days ago.
For a bullish continuation, the XAG/USD must clear the psychological $60.00 mark. A breach of the latter exposes the July 22 peak at $60.94, before challenging $61.00.
Downwards, sellers, must drag Silver below the July 28 daily low of $56.64, before the white metal tumbles and test the yearly low of $54.77.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices advance toward $58.80 per ounce on Thursday, gaining around 1.7% as softer United States inflation data and weaker-than-expected economic growth place pressure on the US Dollar.
The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below the 0.2% market forecast and slowing from the previous 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, underlying inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4%.
Headline PCE declined 0.1% on the month, following a 0.5% increase previously, while the annual rate slowed to 3.7% from 4.1%. The softer inflation readings reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could adopt a less restrictive monetary policy stance if price pressure continues to moderate.
US economic growth also disappointed. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, below expectations of 2.1%. However, the GDP Price Index surged 6.3%, well above the 3.6% forecast, indicating that some inflationary pressure remains elevated.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $58.76, holding a modest bullish bias as it stays above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.10 and the 20-period SMA at $57.76. The pair has also reclaimed nearby horizontal support at $58.66, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 hints at improving but not overstretched bullish momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at $58.66, followed by $58.53, before the 100-period SMA at $58.10 and the 20-period SMA at $57.76 underpin the broader structure. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at $58.94, with a subsequent barrier at $59.26; a sustained break above these caps would open the way for a deeper extension of the current recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.79 per troy ounce, down 0.25% from the $57.94 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.70% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.37 on Thursday, up from 70.22 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gives back its early gains and turns negative on Thursday. The white metal trades 0.7% lower at around $57.25 in the European trade after a positive start, which led to hitting an intraday high at $58.65.
Surging US Treasury Yields on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would need to hike interest rates in the near-term have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
"Yields are a byproduct of the rate expectations, and if the market expects that inflation fears will translate into higher rates, yields will be higher," and this is pressuring gold, ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said. The remarks from the bank were especially for Gold; however, historically, Silver reacts in a similar fashion to Gold against bond yields.
At press time, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade 1.8% higher, close to their 18-month high of around 4.71%. A decent recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to near 101.00 after a weak Wednesday is also hurting the Silver price. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.27%0.22%0.18%0.11%0.04%-0.19%0.43%EUR-0.27%-0.07%-0.07%-0.16%-0.25%-0.48%0.16%GBP-0.22%0.07%0.00%-0.10%-0.18%-0.40%0.25%JPY-0.18%0.07%0.00%-0.08%-0.14%-0.39%0.27%CAD-0.11%0.16%0.10%0.08%-0.07%-0.31%0.34%AUD-0.04%0.25%0.18%0.14%0.07%-0.21%0.44%NZD0.19%0.48%0.40%0.39%0.31%0.21%0.68%CHF-0.43%-0.16%-0.25%-0.27%-0.34%-0.44%-0.68% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an almost 75% chance that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike by the October meeting.
The Silver price opened higher as the US Dollar fell sharply after the Fed’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed’s monetary policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference signaled that policymakers are highly concerned about inflation remaining well-above the central bank’s 2% target for a longer period.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $57.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, Silver prices gained following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision, supported by expectations that other major central banks will follow a similar path.
During its July meeting, the Fed opted to leave rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range despite growing inflationary pressures tied to renewed conflict in the Middle East. This decision provided underlying support to Silver, as elevated borrowing costs typically dampen demand for non-yielding assets. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this week while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation.
Despite the status quo, internal disagreement was evident within the Federal Open Market Committee. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari all dissented, advocating instead for a 25-basis-point rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced a firm tone, noting that while the central bank will refrain from offering explicit forward guidance on future rate adjustments, it remains committed to using all necessary tools to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
The Fed Monetary Policy Statement scores 7.4/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, a clear hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 4.9/10. By holding the key overnight rate at 3.50%-3.75% while stressing elevated inflation, solid economic activity, and strong productivity and investment, the Fed signals confidence in growth and a firm commitment to price stability. The 9-3 split vote, with three presidents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores latent tightening bias that is supportive of the Dollar on a medium-term horizon.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 128.64, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests the Fed continues to lean toward restrictive policy, a backdrop that should keep Dollar dips relatively shallow against the Euro and Yen.
Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence global markets. President Donald Trump pledged a decisive response following a recent attack on US forces in Jordan. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled as both sides struggle to reach a compromise, largely due to Tehran’s insistence on retaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price clings to gains on Wednesday late in the North American session, as the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, which, instead of strengthening the Dollar, weakened it, while US Treasury yields spiked. The XAG/USD trades at $57.17, barely unchanged.
XAG/USD steadies near $57.00 as Fed dissent, surging long-end yields and Dollar weakness drive choppy tradingThe Fed's monetary policy statement was barely changed. The central bank noted that the economy is growing steadily despite uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran war. The central bank revealed that productivity growth and capital investment are robust, further strengthening the jobs market.
Worth mentioning that the decision was split, with three dissenters led by the Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan, who favoured a 25-basis-point rate hike.
The press conference didn’t provide any remarks worth mentioning. Although the Fed Chair, Warsh, revealed that he’s committed to tackling inflation, he dodges the question of how the Fed will achieve its 2% goal. Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield spiked by more than 10 basis points to its highest level in almost 20 years, though it failed to boost the Greenback, which is tumbling over 0.40%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six currencies, is down at 100.93, after hitting a six-day low, despite the rise of US yields.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the final reading of Q2 2026 US GDP, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver daily chartIn the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.15, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds well below the latest simple moving average cluster around $64.33 and under a series of descending trend-line resistances, including the more recent lines derived from the $78.83 and $77.02 peaks. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 41, hinting at subdued downside momentum, but with price compressed between immediate trend-line support near $55.98 and the overhead moving averages, the metal remains capped within a broader descending channel.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the former support trend line projected from $61.01, ahead of the confluence of the simple moving average triple and a descending trend-line break around $64–65, while a more significant supply zone emerges toward the $80.76 region associated with the longer-term downtrend from $96.62. On the downside, a clean drop through the nearby trend-line support at roughly $55.98 would expose lower levels and extend the prevailing bearish phase, whereas holding above this line could see XAG/USD attempt another corrective bounce back toward the clustered resistance band overhead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
FedWatch has the probability of holding the 3.5% to 3.75% range near 64%. The other third of the market is pricing a quarter-point hike today. A hold by itself is not going to move silver because that is already the base case.
September is the number that matters. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has said rates should be modestly higher. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Governor Christopher Waller have all left room for tightening if inflation does not improve. Any of those names dissenting on the hold would tell the market that the internal debate is further along than the headline decision suggests, and Warsh would spend the press conference explaining why the Fed waited rather than why it is considering action. That distinction changes the tone of every answer he gives.
Economist Claudia Sahm expects the statement to signal that policy firming may be needed soon if inflation stays elevated and the labor market holds. If that language shows up, the rate market takes it as confirmation and September expectations firm from here.
Oil Made Wednesday’s Press Conference Harder Crude is up nearly 7% after Iran launched missiles at U.S. forces and President Trump said the United States will respond hard. Warsh was already facing questions about inflation. Now he is facing them with energy prices running in the wrong direction on the day of the decision.
The oil move matters for silver because it forces the inflation question to the front of the press conference. A measured tone from Warsh was the bullish scenario coming in. Crude near $90 makes measured harder to deliver and easier for the market to dismiss even if he tries. The dollar is still carrying long positioning from two weeks of rate repricing, and if Warsh somehow avoids escalating the inflation message, those longs could start unwinding fast. Silver would catch that bid. But the setup walking in favors the hawks, and the oil spike gave them the headline they needed.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $56.90 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.43% on the day. Price action remains cautious as investors avoid taking large directional positions ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.
The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range for a fifth consecutive meeting. Nevertheless, futures markets continue to price in roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike, highlighting persistent uncertainty over the US inflation outlook.
The main focus will be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation or are prepared to tighten policy further would likely support the US Dollar (USD), limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated after United States (US) President Donald Trump said Washington would carry out further strikes against Iran following attacks targeting US positions in Jordan, according to Reuters. The escalation has supported Oil prices and reinforced concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated, strengthening the case for the Fed to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.
Although geopolitical uncertainty would normally boost demand for safe-haven assets, markets are currently focusing on its inflationary implications. Higher inflation expectations could encourage future monetary tightening, limiting Silver's upside.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold and silver continue to consolidate above major historical support zones as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While gold is holding above a decade-long trendline dating back to 2016, silver is facing a multi-decade support zone originating from the 1980 highs.
These rare long-term technical setups raise an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or is it better to wait for greater clarity before re-entering the market?
Fed Expectations Take Center Stage Source: CME
That question becomes even more relevant as markets prepare for today's Federal Reserve decision.
Current market expectations imply:
Around a 70% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Nearly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Expectations that policymakers will maintain a hawkish tone, supported by persistent Middle East tensions and renewed inflation risks. September Expectations Turn More Hawkish
Source: CME
Looking ahead to September, expectations become considerably more hawkish:
More than a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Around a 19% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Around a 23% probability of rates remaining unchanged. These expectations continue to support the US Dollar Index above the 101 level, strengthening the US dollar while weighing on major currency pairs, including USD/JPY, which continues to trade near levels last seen in the 1980s.
At the same time, gold and silver remain trapped near critical technical confluence zones as investors assess whether Treasury yields will continue rising or whether the Federal Reserve could deliver a less hawkish message.
I discussed these scenarios in greater detail during my latest bi-weekly webinar.
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Regardless of whether the next catalyst comes from geopolitical developments, a stronger US dollar, or a shift in Fed guidance, the key technical levels outlined below provide a framework for assessing both the short-term and long-term outlook.
DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The monthly chart highlights that the US Dollar Index continues to hold within a major bullish confluence zone, supported by:
The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern. The midpoint of a descending parallel channel extending from 2022. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. Monthly RSI holding comfortably above the neutral 50 level A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing resistance at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.
Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflation pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing both toward fresh 2026 lows before a longer-term recovery develops.
On the downside, a break below the uptrend support zone between 100.30 and 99.30 would weaken the year’s bullish structure, improving the outlook for currencies and precious metals. I explained these scenarios in the bi-weekly webinar below
Gold Price Outlook: 6 -Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.
Price continues to hold near the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. A sustained break below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025. Gold is also holding above the long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:
Crude oil price direction Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz The Federal Reserve's policy outlook
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Despite the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold remains trapped inside a contracting consolidation between 3,930 and 4,200.
The broader short-term outlook therefore remains neutral, with key levels inside the consolidation at:
4,140 on the upside. 3,960–3,930 on the downside. Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to form a bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum is gradually fading. However, confirmation requires a breakout above both the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026 and resistance between 4,140 and 4,200.
Gold Bullish Scenario
A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers. That would expose the next resistance levels at: 4,340 - 4,400
A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed. Gold Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a break below the 3,960–3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.
The next downside objectives are:
3,880–3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500 - 3,460, respected 5 month resistance zone in 2025 These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Silver Price Outlook: 3-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.
A shooting star reversal candle. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.
The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026.
At the same time, momentum indicators remain below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, keeping the short-term bearish bias intact despite bullish divergence.
A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Conversely, a breakout above $61 exposes $63.80 - $68 - $72. Long term outlook: a confirmed breakout above 72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.
Key Takeaway
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.
The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key to watch for upside risks The 100.30 - 99.30 support zone remains key to watch for downside risks Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.92 per troy ounce, up 1.36% from the $57.14 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.52% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.73 on Wednesday, down from 70.50 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) shows a moderate bullish tone on Wednesday, following a two-day reversal, with price action returning to levels above the $58.00 line at the early European trading session. Precious metals are drawing support from a slightly softer US Dollar (USD) as investors position for the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to stand pat on rates, although futures markets are pricing a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point rate hike. The central bank, however, is likely to show concern about above-target inflation, which will be seen as a hint towards monetary tightening, and provide some support to the USD.
Investors are taking in stride the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East so far. Reports of Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and US-Saudi attacks on Iranian-backed Shiite groups in Iraq, allegedly killing 20 people, have failed to dent Silver’s recovery, as markets cling to hopes of a new round of negotiations, but a resumption of hostilities is highly likely to boost the safe-haven US Dollar and send precious metals to fresh lows.
Technical Analysis: Price action is forming a triangle pattern
XAG/USD trades at $58.03, halfway through the last two weeks' range, with a sequence of lower highs and higher lows forming a small triangle pattern. Momentum is mixed, as the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around 50, suggesting a stabilising bias, while below-zero Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) highlights an unconvincing upside traction.
The top of the triangle, now around $59.28, and the $60.60 area, which capped bulls on July 9, 10 and 22, are likely to test bullish attempts. If these levels are broken, the measured target of the triangle pattern is a support-turned-resistance area, ahead of $63.00.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the confluence of the triangle bottom and Tuesday's low in the $57.00 area. Further down, the year-to-date low, at $54.77, and the October 2025 high, near $57.40, are expected to hold bears.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold – Chart Gold is forming a big symmetrical triangle with price currently sitting around $4,034 after bouncing off the rising trendline near $4,011. Nonetheless, the price remains below the 50-EMA ($4,058) and 100-EMA ($4,071), suggesting that the overall short-term trend is bearish. The RSI is recovering to around 43, which indicates that bearish momentum is slowing down, but bulls are not yet in charge.
Resistance is immediately at $4,066, followed by $4,114 and $4,166. Support is held at $4,011, followed by $3,959 and $3,913.
Gold is neutral as long as it trades within the triangle. A break above $4,066 would increase the likelihood of a move towards $4,114 and $4,166, whereas a break below $4,011 would open up the possibility of a drop towards $3,959.
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Triangle Support Holds as Bulls Attempt Recovery
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.14% higher to near $57.80 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal gains even as oil prices rebound strongly due to renewed conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran.
At press time, the WTI Oil price is up 3.65% to near $81.20, snapping a three-day losing streak.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported late Tuesday that it intercepted all ballistic missiles launched by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces. In retaliation, CENTCOM reported carrying out precision strikes in Iraq, targeting Iran-backed groups planning attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities.
The Silver price has underperformed in the past months as higher oil prices boost inflation expectations, a scenario that forces global central banks to lean towards higher or steady interest rates.
Theoretically, higher interest rates by central banks bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 69.5% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. This will be the fifth straight policy meeting when the Fed will maintain the status quo.
Investors should not expect any remarks from the Fed regarding the monetary policy guidance, as Chairman Kevin Warsh explicitly said in the previous meeting that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $57.63 at press time, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at roughly $58.93.
The fact that price remains capped by this short-term EMA suggests rallies are being sold into, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that downside pressure still dominates even if conditions are not oversold.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA near $58.93, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open room for a further rebound towards $60.00. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
One of the themes I keep returning to is that silver’s supply is more concentrated, and more politically exposed, than its steady price history suggests. Peru is the clearest example. It is among the top handful of silver-producing countries, and in July its politics moved in a direction that could tighten an already narrow supply picture.
One Country, About a Sixth of Mine Supply On July 15, Reuters reported that Peru’s president-elect, Keiko Fujimori, could face renewed protests in the country’s mining regions as her incoming government tries to push forward large copper and other mining projects that have been delayed for years. The report drew on a study by the Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Peru, which counts roughly $64 billion in planned mining investment, much of it in poor rural areas where communities say they see little local benefit and worry about the environmental cost.
This is not a war or a coup. It is the ordinary friction of a mining democracy, and that is exactly why it is easy to underrate. But the numbers behind it are not small. Peru produced about 131 million ounces of silver in 2025, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which is about 15% of the roughly 847 million ounces the world mined that year, close to one ounce in six.
Two features of Peruvian silver make that output especially fragile. The first is that most of it is a byproduct. Peru’s mines are dug primarily for lead, zinc, and copper, and silver comes out alongside those metals rather than as the main event. This is not unique to Peru. It is how most of the world’s silver is produced: mines built primarily for silver have fallen to just 26% of global supply, a record low, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which means roughly three-quarters of all silver now arrives as a byproduct of mining for other metals.
What concentrates the risk in Peru is that so much of this byproduct supply sits in one country. It means silver supply from Peru rises and falls with decisions made for entirely different reasons, driven by the economics of lead, zinc, and copper, and it cannot easily be increased just because silver is expensive. The second is that many of Peru’s silver projects are run by small and mid-sized companies with thin balance sheets, which makes them more vulnerable to the energy-cost spikes and road blockades that periodically disrupt the country’s mining regions.
The backdrop was already unsettled before the election result. Peru issued an emergency decree in May to deal with an energy shortage, road blockades have periodically interrupted shipments of concentrate, and the program to formalize the country’s large informal-mining sector has been extended into the end of 2026. A wave of protest over stalled projects would land on top of all of it.
Peru sits right at the center of that math. The survey already expects Peruvian output to fall in 2026 on weaker lead and zinc production, and names Peru first among the declines that outweigh recovering output in Mexico and leave the global total slightly lower. In other words, Peru is already forecast to be a drag on world supply before any new political unrest is added. A wave of protest that stalled projects or blocked roads would push in the same direction, from an already flat base.
What This Means to Silver Investors The practical lesson is that silver’s supply risk is concentrated in a handful of countries, and it is the kind of risk that builds quietly rather than announcing itself.
An oil shock or a war moves the price this week, and it is easy to watch. A president-elect’s mining agenda, a study on rural protest, an emergency energy decree: these move nothing today, and they never generate a dramatic one-day chart. But they accumulate. Peru, Mexico, and China, between them, dominate the world’s mined and refined silver, and in a single fortnight, all three showed up on the risk ledger at once, through Peru’s unrest study, a US-Mexico trade review, and China’s export controls. None of them removed an ounce from the market in July. What they did was raise the political premium sitting over the supply that has to fill a persistent shortfall.
That shortfall is the anchor. The market is forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. A deficit means the world is consuming more silver than it produces and recycles, and covering the difference from existing stocks. Against that backdrop, a threat to roughly a sixth of global mine supply is not a footnote. It is a threat to the single side of the equation that has no slack left in it.
None of this is a forecast about next week’s price, which will keep taking its cues from oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve. It is a point about the ground underneath the price. Studying how silver has traded in 2026 suggests that we will see the sharp moves come and go with the macro headlines, while the longer-term case for silver rests on a supply base that is flat, concentrated, and increasingly political. The war grabbed the headlines in July. Peru is the one worth watching after they fade, and it is exactly the kind of slow, structural risk the framework in Silver Rising is built to track.
Peru’s supply risk is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. I strongly encourage you to sign up. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book today.
