Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold and silver are tracing bullish breakout risks above their June-August consolidations as market optimism grows over a potential US-Iran deal. However, geopolitical risks continue to persist.

As silver breaks above $61 and gold reclaims $4,100, key developments to watch include:

The DXY maintaining its position above its 2026 uptrend and the 99.30 support level.  DXY analysis  Crude oil holding above $70. Crude oil analysis Inflation uncertainty related to the prolonged disruptions across the Middle East remaining a key concern. Should headlines continue to progress toward a sustainable resolution, market uptrends are expected to extend. However, any deterioration in negotiations could trigger significant downside risks as market sentiment quickly reverses.

To minimize headline noise, price action analysis helps clarify the technical scenarios ahead.

Gold Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a six-month perspective, gold is rebounding from one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.

The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels in 2026. The close of a six-month shooting star reversal pattern. However, given the significance of this support zone and the fragile nature of the US-Iran situation, a sustained break below this confluence and the 3,930 support level would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.

Whether gold continues its rebound from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:

Crude oil price direction. Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve's policy outlook and US Treasury yields. US Dollar (DXY), USD/JPY Forecast: Key Levels to Watch Gold Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

In line with the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold is tracing a bullish breakout above the June-August contracting consolidation, ranging between 3,930 and 4,200, and above the descending resistance guiding price action since March 2026.

Key support: 3,960-3,930

Gold Bullish Scenario

A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers.

That would expose the next resistance levels near the 23.6 – 27.2% retracement of the yearly decline:

4,340 4,400 A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed.

Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to push into bullish territory, suggesting accelerating momentum.

Gold Bearish Scenario

On the downside, a break below the 4,020-3,960-3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.

The next downside objectives are:

3,880-3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700. 3,500-3,460, the well-respected five-month resistance zone throughout 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.

As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.

Silver Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.

A shooting star reversal candle. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price action facing the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support should another breakdown in silver prices occur below $55.

This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.

The shorter-term outlook suggests signs of bullish recovery, which becomes clearer on the daily chart below.

Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026, while also holding above the June-August consolidation and the $61 resistance level.

At the same time, momentum indicators continue pointing higher, remaining above the neutral 50 level and supporting the short-term bullish outlook.

A breakout above $61 exposes $63.80, $68, and $72. A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Long-Term Outlook

A confirmed breakout above $72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.

Key Takeaway

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.

The 101.80-102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch for upside risks in the dollar and downside risks across currencies and precious metals. The 99.30 support zone remains the key level to watch for downside risks in the dollar and upside risks across currencies and precious metals. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.8% higher at around $60.95 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal attracts significant bids as oil prices face a sharp sell-off amid hopes of a resolution in conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.8% lower at around $73.80.

Global inflation expectations get anchored by lower oil prices, which diminish fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

Hopes for US-Iran conflict resolution are backed by comments from US officials that a deal would be reached soon. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the critical chokepoint could be reached “as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday”. 

However, financial markets are uncertain regarding whether ongoing talks would restore freedom of navigation through the critical chokepoint. So far, Iran has just confirmed that it is in talks with Oman over the charge of the Hormuz Strait.

Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.

Deutsche Bank looks for modest pickup in US July payrollsEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect a slightly firmer US labour market print on Friday, projecting that the July payrolls report will show employment growth of “+65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading,” with “private payrolls … also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously.” Set alongside their projections for a 4.2% unemployment rate, with risks skewed toward 4.3% on higher participation, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month, the bank’s forecasts point to a still‑moderate pace of job creation consistent with nominal income growth running at around 4.4% year‑on‑year.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades higher at around $60.95, holding above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.05, which now underpins a constructive near-term bias. The EMA offers underlying trend support as price advances away from the recent lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.23 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is building but not yet overstretched.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.05, where a pullback could find buyers to preserve the short-term uptrend. Below that, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level. Looking up, the Silver price could extend the advance towards the July 6 high at $63.28 if it manages to stabilize above $61.00

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver futures trade around 60.020, holding at the 60.000 level while staying below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately this is a market that is starting to test the $60 level yet again. This is an area that has been resistance previously, and then after that, the $62.50 level has been resistance. The 50-day EMA is the moving average that a lot of traders will watch. This is an area that is technical resistance as well, so it is worth paying attention to.

Lower Yields and Energy Inflation Concerns Ultimately, this is a market that is going to remain noisy, and it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the interest rate market. It has seen lower yields during the session, and that, of course, helped silver with the idea that silver will continue to move based on inflationary expectations and the idea that we are electrifying the overall economy and driving up the massive demand for silver eventually.

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday. Investors’ hopes of a negotiated end to Iran’s war are providing a mild appetite for risk, and buoying precious metals, although the US Dollar Index (USD) has picked up from lows, which might keep a lid on Silver’s rally.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that this is the “last chance” for Iran to sign a good peace deal with the United States, but Tehran has denied any talks with the US or plans to hold them. Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits remains at very low levels, and reports of an attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman complicate matters further. 

Technical Analysis: Silver appreciates within range

XAG/USD trades at $59.01, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias with momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart turning positive. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the zero line, suggesting that buyers are taking control.

Price action, however, remains within the mid-ranges of the last four weeks' horizontal channel. Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the $59.30 area (July 29, 30 highs) and at the $60.75-$60.90 area (July 10, 22 highs) ahead of the key resistance at the July 6 high of 63.28

On the downside, immediate support is at the $56.50 area, which capped bears last week. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the key support at the mid-July lows of $54.77.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan.

Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September.

Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.

On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.

Silver Remains Stuck Near Key Support At $56.00 – $57.00

Key Support Floors and Historical Resistance Levels The $60 level, at least right now, seems to be offering a bit of resistance, and we have the 50-day EMA at $63.45 offering a bit of a barrier. If we break down from here, the $55 level has offered support as of late, and a breakdown below that level would be a psychologically negative turn of events.

Silver could test the $50 level, which is an area that previously had been major resistance going all the way back to the late 70s when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market, the physical market. We recently broke through there, so a retest of that wouldn’t be the strangest thing to see. So, I am watching that as well.

Silver price (XAG/USD) opens strongly due to a sharp decline in oil prices, but struggles to extend gains beyond $58.68 during the day. At press time, the Silver price is up 1% to near $58.20.

The white metal has started the week on a firm footing as lower oil prices due to the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran have anchored global inflation expectations.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that planned attacks on Iran have been suspended as Tehran has agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

The Silver price has underperformed significantly in the past few months as oil prices fuelled global inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

It is highly likely that the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) will restrict Silver’s upside. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect two further 25bps increases this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates next month are 64.5%.

Silver technical analysis

Bias: XAG/USD trades higher at around $58.20, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.79.

Momentum: The price's failure to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 stays in neutral territory on the daily chart, hinting at modest downside pressure rather than a decisive trend move.

Resistance: On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $58.79, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for $60.00.

Support: Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices climb as market sentiment shifted following statements from US President Donald Trump, who announced that peace talks with Iran are set to resume on Monday. The prospect of diplomacy helped send oil prices lower, offering relief to investors concerned about rising inflation and the broader outlook for interest rates.

President Trump noted that key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged him to halt planned military strikes in favor of a diplomatic solution, while he reiterated his call for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are turning their attention to a busy week of US labor market data, anchored by Friday's closely watched monthly jobs report. This economic focus comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady.

However, that decision was not unanimous; three Fed officials dissented, cautioning that delaying action could force the central bank into more aggressive policy tightening down the road. In response to these mixed signals, financial markets are currently pricing in roughly a 68% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming September meeting.

According to analysts at Commerzbank, the outlook for the other bullion, gold, remains constrained by the policy path in the US. They argue that “the persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price,” with ongoing tightening expectations limiting the scope for a sustained move higher even after the recent post-meeting spike.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of hesitation again for the week, as we are looking at the silver market with questions.

Silver Weekly Technical Analysis

Silver futures trade around 57.655, holding near the 60.000 level and above the 200-week EMA. Source: TradingView. The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of weakness again as we continue to see a lot of choppiness and noisy trading just under a big figure. The market rallying from here is a real possibility, with the market seemingly not wanting to break down, but we also have to worry about interest rates out there rising because rising interest rates typically work against silver. We have seen that play out here over the last couple of months.

Rising Interest Rates and Middle East Uncertainty Keep Silver in Stasis The market remains one that I think is in a bit of stasis at the moment. We just do not really know what to do, and why would we? The situation in the Middle East does not seem to be getting any better, and of course we have to consider that interest rates are extraordinarily high; that typically works against silver, as I said, but the market is trying to adjust to a new normal.

The $50 level below was an area that has been important multiple times in the past. There should be a ton of market memory there, all things being equal, and with that being the case, I think we need to be very cautious with this market. Position size will be crucial, as it typically is in a volatile market like this. Longer term, I do like silver, but right now I think we are just kind of hanging out here and waiting for some clarity for once. At this point, it’s a tricky situation.

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Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.7% to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal continues to decline throughout the day as United States (US) Treasury Yields have bounced back amid fears that inflationary pressures will remain elevated.

As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.45% to near 4.68% after a weak performance in the opening trade.

Higher US Treasury Yields bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

In the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and policymakers expressed mounting concerns regarding inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target.

Fed rhetoric in focus as TD warns of risks for 10y TreasuriesAccording to TD Securities, the tone from policymakers will be critical once the Fed’s communication blackout ends. The bank expects that “hawkish comments by FOMC members” should help “restore some of the Fed's inflation fighting credibility,” aligning with its view that recent labour-cost dynamics remain broadly consistent with the inflation mandate. However, TD cautions that, against this backdrop, “we see significant risk of 10y Treasuries breaking through key technical levels in the coming days,” underscoring the potential for renewed volatility along the US rates curve.

Meanwhile, elevated oil prices due to fears of constrained global energy supplies are also supporting US Treasury yields. Middle East energy supply concerns are expected to remain prolonged as Iran intends to monetize the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply.

In addition to higher US bond Yields, a sharp rebound in the US Dollar (USD) after a three-day losing streak is also hurting the Silver price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 100.30.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The 30-year yield near 5.24% did not stop the rally and that is worth noting. The highest long-end print since 2007 is sitting right there and silver is climbing anyway. The dollar unwind is overpowering it for now. Two weeks of long-dollar positioning built ahead of the Fed meeting is coming off, and that flow matters more to silver today than what the bond market thinks about inflation over the next decade.

I would not count on that lasting. Warsh gave the market no dot plot, no projections and no promise to wait. He set it up so the next inflation print or payrolls report can put September right back on the table overnight. The dollar stops falling the moment that happens, and silver loses its one support.

Crude Decides How Long the Window Stays Open Oil is the reason the September debate did not die Wednesday. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has kept crude elevated, and the next inflation report picks up more of that energy cost than June’s data did. The three dissenters already have their argument on the record. One more firm print hands them the data to act on it.

Silver has a window right now between the Fed hold and the next set of numbers. Crude staying above $85 is what makes that window narrow. Every day oil holds here is another day the hawks can point to and say the inflation problem is getting worse, not better.

What to Watch September odds are the cleaner signal right now. If hike expectations keep falling and the dollar continues to unwind, silver holds the bid. If the odds start rebuilding on the next data release or another oil headline, the dollar finds a floor and sellers come back. FedWatch tells the story faster than trying to parse every sentence from Warsh’s press conference.

Silver has been sitting in the retracement zone for over a week and the Fed did not break it out. The accumulation pattern underneath the market gives buyers a foundation, but the longer-term investors building that base are not the ones who drive the breakout. Short-term speculators have to step in aggressively above the zone, and they are not going to do it with the 30-year above 5% and crude keeping the next inflation print in doubt. The rate picture has to keep cooperating or this range resolves lower.

TL;DR: A weaker Dollar usually lifts Gold and Silver, but this week’s decline is being driven by fading Fed hike bets and a stock rally rather than falling real yields or safe-haven demand — leaving precious metals without their usual tailwind.

Why the Usual Dollar-Gold Relationship Isn’t Holding A weaker Dollar is usually regarded as a straightforward bullish signal for Gold and Silver. This week has been a timely reminder that the relationship is far more complicated. The Dollar has fallen broadly, with EUR/USD gaining around 1.3% for the week so far, yet the rebound in precious metals has been comparatively subdued.

Rather than confirming the familiar inverse Dollar-Gold relationship, the latest price action highlights a more important point: Gold and Silver respond not to the Dollar itself, but to the forces driving the Dollar.

What Kind of Dollar Weakness Actually Matters The key lies in understanding what kind of Dollar weakness the market is experiencing. Gold and Silver typically perform best when the Dollar is pressured by fear — during financial crises, recession fears, or aggressive declines in real interest rates. In those environments, a weaker Dollar and stronger safe-haven demand reinforce each other, often producing powerful rallies in precious metals.

This week’s price action, however, has been driven by almost the opposite set of forces.

Why the Dollar Actually Fell This Week The Dollar has softened because markets are becoming less convinced the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy again in the near term. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was interpreted as patient rather than urgent, despite three policymakers dissenting in favor of an immediate rate hike, and that view was reinforced by Thursday’s weaker-than-expected second-quarter GDP report and another cooling reading on core PCE inflation.

At the same time, risk-on sentiment staged a massive return. Microsoft’s blockbuster earnings and stronger cloud growth triggered a more than 15% rally in the stock, helping propel the NASDAQ up 2.78% and the Dow 1.19% on Thursday. Optimism spilled into Asia, where the KOSPI surged 17.91%. Rather than rotating into defensive assets, investors have been rotating into equities.

Why This Distinction Matters for Precious Metals That distinction explains why Gold and Silver have struggled to capitalize on the weaker Dollar. Precious metals don’t trade against the Dollar in isolation; they trade primarily off real interest rates and demand for protection. The Dollar often serves as a convenient proxy because it usually moves alongside US real yields.

When real yields fall, the Dollar weakens and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines, creating a powerful tailwind for Gold. Likewise, when markets become anxious, both the Dollar and Gold often benefit from safe-haven demand, though Gold can outperform if falling yields dominate. Those overlapping relationships are why the inverse Dollar-Gold correlation has become conventional wisdom.

Why Those Relationships Have Diverged This Week This week, however, those relationships have diverged. Treasury markets have remained remarkably stable, with the 10-year yield holding comfortably within its recent 4.6%–4.7% range instead of falling alongside the Dollar. Without a meaningful decline in real yields, Gold has lost one of its most important fundamental supports.

At the same time, surging equity markets have reduced the need for portfolio hedges, weakening safe-haven demand. As a result, the weaker Dollar has provided only a modest lift, while the absence of lower real yields and the strength of risk appetite have prevented Gold and Silver from mounting the kind of breakout investors often associate with broad Dollar weakness.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold and Silver Technically, Gold’s latest rebound delays rather than negates the broader bearish outlook. The consolidation from 3,942.23 appears to be extending into another recovery leg, with a break of 4,116.08 resistance now possible. However, gains should be capped by the falling 55-day EMA, currently at 4,214.50. Once the consolidation completes, a break below 3,942.23 remains the preferred scenario to resume the broader decline from 5,598.38.

Silver presents a similar technical picture. The corrective rebound from 54.77 could extend toward 60.92, but the falling 55-day EMA, now at 63.67, is expected to limit upside. Once the current consolidation phase runs its course, the broader downtrend is expected to resume with a break below 54.77.

Key Takeaways Gold and Silver have lagged this week’s broad Dollar decline because the weakness stems from fading Fed hike bets, not falling real yields or safe-haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield has held steady within 4.6%–4.7%, denying Gold the real-yield tailwind it typically needs to rally alongside a weaker Dollar. A risk-on surge — led by Microsoft’s earnings and a 17.91% KOSPI rally — has reduced demand for defensive hedges, further capping precious metals. Gold’s consolidation from 3,942.23 may extend toward 4,116.08, but the falling 55-day EMA at 4,214.50 should cap gains ahead of a resumed decline. Silver’s rebound from 54.77 faces a similar ceiling near its falling 55-day EMA at 63.67, with the broader downtrend expected to resume below 54.77.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Silver price advances for the second straight day and hits a three-day high above $59.00mid growing speculation of intervention in the foreign exchange markets, to boost the Yen, and weaken the Greenback. At tht time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $59.22                                                                                           

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe white metal, enjoyed eight days of consolidation, with no clear bias. However, the XAG/USD began to show signs of life, after reclaiming $59.00, though still respecting the downward market structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that neither buyer nor sellers are in charge, even though it sits in bearish territory. Worth noting that the index is aiming higher, since four trading days ago.

For a bullish continuation, the XAG/USD must clear the psychological $60.00 mark. A breach of the latter exposes the July 22 peak at $60.94, before challenging $61.00.

Downwards, sellers, must drag Silver below the July 28 daily low of $56.64, before the white metal tumbles and test the yearly low of $54.77.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.79 per troy ounce, down 0.25% from the $57.94 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 18.70% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.37 on Thursday, up from 70.22 on Wednesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $57.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, Silver prices gained following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision, supported by expectations that other major central banks will follow a similar path.

During its July meeting, the Fed opted to leave rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range despite growing inflationary pressures tied to renewed conflict in the Middle East. This decision provided underlying support to Silver, as elevated borrowing costs typically dampen demand for non-yielding assets. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this week while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation.

Despite the status quo, internal disagreement was evident within the Federal Open Market Committee. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari all dissented, advocating instead for a 25-basis-point rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced a firm tone, noting that while the central bank will refrain from offering explicit forward guidance on future rate adjustments, it remains committed to using all necessary tools to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

The Fed Monetary Policy Statement scores 7.4/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, a clear hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 4.9/10. By holding the key overnight rate at 3.50%-3.75% while stressing elevated inflation, solid economic activity, and strong productivity and investment, the Fed signals confidence in growth and a firm commitment to price stability. The 9-3 split vote, with three presidents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores latent tightening bias that is supportive of the Dollar on a medium-term horizon.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 128.64, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests the Fed continues to lean toward restrictive policy, a backdrop that should keep Dollar dips relatively shallow against the Euro and Yen.

Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence global markets. President Donald Trump pledged a decisive response following a recent attack on US forces in Jordan. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled as both sides struggle to reach a compromise, largely due to Tehran’s insistence on retaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

FedWatch has the probability of holding the 3.5% to 3.75% range near 64%. The other third of the market is pricing a quarter-point hike today. A hold by itself is not going to move silver because that is already the base case.

September is the number that matters. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has said rates should be modestly higher. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Governor Christopher Waller have all left room for tightening if inflation does not improve. Any of those names dissenting on the hold would tell the market that the internal debate is further along than the headline decision suggests, and Warsh would spend the press conference explaining why the Fed waited rather than why it is considering action. That distinction changes the tone of every answer he gives.

Economist Claudia Sahm expects the statement to signal that policy firming may be needed soon if inflation stays elevated and the labor market holds. If that language shows up, the rate market takes it as confirmation and September expectations firm from here.

Oil Made Wednesday’s Press Conference Harder Crude is up nearly 7% after Iran launched missiles at U.S. forces and President Trump said the United States will respond hard. Warsh was already facing questions about inflation. Now he is facing them with energy prices running in the wrong direction on the day of the decision.

The oil move matters for silver because it forces the inflation question to the front of the press conference. A measured tone from Warsh was the bullish scenario coming in. Crude near $90 makes measured harder to deliver and easier for the market to dismiss even if he tries. The dollar is still carrying long positioning from two weeks of rate repricing, and if Warsh somehow avoids escalating the inflation message, those longs could start unwinding fast. Silver would catch that bid. But the setup walking in favors the hawks, and the oil spike gave them the headline they needed.

Gold and silver continue to consolidate above major historical support zones as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While gold is holding above a decade-long trendline dating back to 2016, silver is facing a multi-decade support zone originating from the 1980 highs.

These rare long-term technical setups raise an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or is it better to wait for greater clarity before re-entering the market?

Fed Expectations Take Center Stage Source: CME

That question becomes even more relevant as markets prepare for today's Federal Reserve decision.

Current market expectations imply:

Around a 70% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Nearly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Expectations that policymakers will maintain a hawkish tone, supported by persistent Middle East tensions and renewed inflation risks. September Expectations Turn More Hawkish

Source: CME

Looking ahead to September, expectations become considerably more hawkish:

More than a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Around a 19% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Around a 23% probability of rates remaining unchanged. These expectations continue to support the US Dollar Index above the 101 level, strengthening the US dollar while weighing on major currency pairs, including USD/JPY, which continues to trade near levels last seen in the 1980s.

At the same time, gold and silver remain trapped near critical technical confluence zones as investors assess whether Treasury yields will continue rising or whether the Federal Reserve could deliver a less hawkish message.

I discussed these scenarios in greater detail during my latest bi-weekly webinar.

Register Here

Regardless of whether the next catalyst comes from geopolitical developments, a stronger US dollar, or a shift in Fed guidance, the key technical levels outlined below provide a framework for assessing both the short-term and long-term outlook.

DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The monthly chart highlights that the US Dollar Index continues to hold within a major bullish confluence zone, supported by:

The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern. The midpoint of a descending parallel channel extending from 2022. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. Monthly RSI holding comfortably above the neutral 50 level A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing resistance at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.

Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflation pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing both toward fresh 2026 lows before a longer-term recovery develops.

On the downside, a break below the uptrend support zone between 100.30 and 99.30 would weaken the year’s bullish structure, improving the outlook for currencies and precious metals. I explained these scenarios in the bi-weekly webinar below

Gold Price Outlook: 6 -Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.

Price continues to hold near the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. A sustained break below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025. Gold is also holding above the long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:

Crude oil price direction Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz The Federal Reserve's policy outlook

Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Despite the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold remains trapped inside a contracting consolidation between 3,930 and 4,200.

The broader short-term outlook therefore remains neutral, with key levels inside the consolidation at:

4,140 on the upside. 3,960–3,930 on the downside. Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to form a bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum is gradually fading. However, confirmation requires a breakout above both the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026 and resistance between 4,140 and 4,200.

Gold Bullish Scenario

A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers. That would expose the next resistance levels at: 4,340 - 4,400

A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed. Gold Bearish Scenario

On the downside, a break below the 3,960–3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.

The next downside objectives are:

3,880–3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500 - 3,460, respected 5 month resistance zone in 2025 These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.

As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.

Silver Price Outlook: 3-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.

A shooting star reversal candle. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.

The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.

Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026.

At the same time, momentum indicators remain below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, keeping the short-term bearish bias intact despite bullish divergence.

A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Conversely, a breakout above $61 exposes $63.80 - $68 - $72. Long term outlook: a confirmed breakout above 72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.

Key Takeaway

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.

The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key to watch for upside risks The 100.30 - 99.30 support zone remains key to watch for downside risks Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

Silver (XAG/USD) shows a moderate bullish tone on Wednesday, following a two-day reversal, with price action returning to levels above the $58.00 line at the early European trading session. Precious metals are drawing support from a slightly softer US Dollar (USD) as investors position for the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to stand pat on rates, although futures markets are pricing a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point rate hike. The central bank, however, is likely to show concern about above-target inflation, which will be seen as a hint towards monetary tightening, and provide some support to the USD.

Investors are taking in stride the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East so far. Reports of Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and US-Saudi attacks on Iranian-backed Shiite groups in Iraq, allegedly killing 20 people, have failed to dent Silver’s recovery, as markets cling to hopes of a new round of negotiations, but a resumption of hostilities is highly likely to boost the safe-haven US Dollar and send precious metals to fresh lows. 

Technical Analysis: Price action is forming a triangle pattern

XAG/USD trades at $58.03, halfway through the last two weeks' range, with a sequence of lower highs and higher lows forming a small triangle pattern. Momentum is mixed, as the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around 50, suggesting a stabilising bias, while below-zero Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) highlights an unconvincing upside traction.

The top of the triangle, now around $59.28, and the $60.60 area, which capped bulls on July 9, 10 and 22, are likely to test bullish attempts. If these levels are broken, the measured target of the triangle pattern is a support-turned-resistance area, ahead of $63.00.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the confluence of the triangle bottom and Tuesday's low in the $57.00 area. Further down, the year-to-date low, at $54.77, and the October 2025 high, near $57.40, are expected to hold bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.14% higher to near $57.80 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal gains even as oil prices rebound strongly due to renewed conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran.

At press time, the WTI Oil price is up 3.65% to near $81.20, snapping a three-day losing streak.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported late Tuesday that it intercepted all ballistic missiles launched by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces. In retaliation, CENTCOM reported carrying out precision strikes in Iraq, targeting Iran-backed groups planning attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities.

The Silver price has underperformed in the past months as higher oil prices boost inflation expectations, a scenario that forces global central banks to lean towards higher or steady interest rates.

Theoretically, higher interest rates by central banks bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 69.5% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. This will be the fifth straight policy meeting when the Fed will maintain the status quo.

Investors should not expect any remarks from the Fed regarding the monetary policy guidance, as Chairman Kevin Warsh explicitly said in the previous meeting that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades higher at around $57.63 at press time, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at roughly $58.93.

The fact that price remains capped by this short-term EMA suggests rallies are being sold into, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that downside pressure still dominates even if conditions are not oversold.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA near $58.93, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open room for a further rebound towards $60.00. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The loudest silver story in July was a shooting war, but the more durable threat was a peaceful election in Peru, a country that digs up close to one silver ounce in six.

Silver trades near $59.43 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69. That ratio is simply the number of silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and it sits near the high end of its historical range, a level long-term buyers read as silver being inexpensive against the larger metal. Silver is up more than 50% from where it stood a year ago, though it remains well below the record of $121.62 set on January 29.

Most of the past fortnight's price action came from the Middle East, where renewed strikes on Iran drove oil higher and pulled silver down with it. That is the noisy, macro-driven side of the market, and it tends to dominate the headlines. Underneath it, though, a slower and more consequential story was developing on the supply side, in a country that rarely makes the front page of a metals report.

I write the Silver Catalyst newsletter for Golden Meadow®, and one of the themes I keep returning to is that silver's supply is more concentrated, and more politically exposed, than its steady price history suggests. Peru is the clearest example. It is among the top handful of silver-producing countries, and in July its politics moved in a direction that could tighten an already narrow supply picture.

One country, about a sixth of mine supplyOn July 15, Reuters reported that Peru's president-elect, Keiko Fujimori, could face renewed protests in the country's mining regions as her incoming government tries to push forward large copper and other mining projects that have been delayed for years. The report drew on a study by the Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Peru, which counts roughly $64 billion in planned mining investment, much of it in poor rural areas where communities say they see little local benefit and worry about the environmental cost.

This is not a war or a coup. It is the ordinary friction of a mining democracy, and that is exactly why it is easy to underrate. But the numbers behind it are not small. Peru produced about 131 million ounces of silver in 2025, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which is about 15% of the roughly 847 million ounces the world mined that year, close to one ounce in six.

Two features of Peruvian silver make that output especially fragile. The first is that most of it is a byproduct. Peru's mines are dug primarily for lead, zinc, and copper, and silver comes out alongside those metals rather than as the main event. This is not unique to Peru. It is how most of the world's silver is produced: mines built primarily for silver have fallen to just 26% of global supply, a record low, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which means roughly three-quarters of all silver now arrives as a byproduct of mining for other metals. What concentrates the risk in Peru is that so much of this byproduct supply sits in one country. It means silver supply from Peru rises and falls with decisions made for entirely different reasons, driven by the economics of lead, zinc, and copper, and it cannot easily be increased just because silver is expensive. The second is that many of Peru's silver projects are run by small and mid-sized companies with thin balance sheets, which makes them more vulnerable to the energy-cost spikes and road blockades that periodically disrupt the country's mining regions.

The backdrop was already unsettled before the election result. Peru issued an emergency decree in May to deal with an energy shortage, road blockades have periodically interrupted shipments of concentrate, and the program to formalize the country's large informal-mining sector has been extended into the end of 2026. A wave of protest over stalled projects would land on top of all of it.

There is a second-order effect that reaches well beyond Peru's borders. Peru is a major supplier of silver-bearing concentrate to China, the country that does most of the world's silver refining. A serious disruption in Peru would not just remove Peruvian ounces; it would tighten the raw material feeding Chinese refineries, at the same time that China's own export controls are keeping more of its refined silver at home. The squeeze would compound.

Sources: MINING.COM / Reuters: Fujimori's Mining Push Could Spur Unrest in Peru | Silver Bullion: Peru's Energy Crisis and the Silver Market | Mexico Business News: US Demands Fall From 54 to 14 Ahead of July 20 Talks | White & Case: Critical-Minerals Section 232 Negotiations

Why this matters more than one country's politicsThe reason Peru carries weight is that the world's mined silver supply barely grows, so there is no cushion to absorb a loss.

In 2025, global mine production came in at 846.6 million ounces. For 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast it essentially flat, at 844.1 million ounces, a decline of about 2.5 million ounces. That flatness is the whole point. Silver has been in a supply deficit, meaning the world uses more than it mines and recycles, and it has closed the gap by drawing down above-ground stockpiles that are not unlimited. When mine supply cannot grow, every regional threat to it matters more, because there is nothing spare to make up the difference.

Peru sits right at the center of that math. The survey already expects Peruvian output to fall in 2026 on weaker lead and zinc production, and names Peru first among the declines that outweigh recovering output in Mexico and leave the global total slightly lower. In other words, Peru is already forecast to be a drag on world supply before any new political unrest is added. A wave of protest that stalled projects or blocked roads would push in the same direction, from an already flat base.

What this means to Silver investorsThe practical lesson is that silver's supply risk is concentrated in a handful of countries, and it is the kind of risk that builds quietly rather than announcing itself.

An oil shock or a war moves the price this week, and it is easy to watch. A president-elect's mining agenda, a study on rural protest, an emergency energy decree: these move nothing today, and they never generate a dramatic one-day chart. But they accumulate. Peru, Mexico, and China between them dominate the world's mined and refined silver, and in a single fortnight all three showed up on the risk ledger at once, through Peru's unrest study, a US-Mexico trade review, and China's export controls. None of them removed an ounce from the market in July. What they did was raise the political premium sitting over the supply that has to fill a persistent shortfall.

That shortfall is the anchor. The market is forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. A deficit means the world is consuming more silver than it produces and recycles, and covering the difference from existing stocks. Against that backdrop, a threat to roughly a sixth of global mine supply is not a footnote. It is a threat to the single side of the equation that has no slack left in it.

None of this is a forecast about next week's price, which will keep taking its cues from oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve. It is a point about the ground underneath the price. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, you will see the sharp moves come and go with the macro headlines, while the longer-term case for silver rests on a supply base that is flat, concentrated, and increasingly political. The war grabbed the headlines in July. Peru is the one worth watching after they fade, and it is exactly the kind of slow, structural risk the framework in Silver Rising is built to track.

Peru's supply risk is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter.

Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after registering nearly 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $57.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-yielding white metal may regain ground as the prospect of de-escalation sends oil prices lower, easing market concerns over rising inflation and further interest rate hikes.

US President Donald Trump indicated that the US is engaged in "good talks" with Iran to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. However, Trump also cautioned that the US is prepared to resume military strikes if negotiations collapse. The statement comes after the US suspended attacks late Friday following nearly two weeks of hostilities, with Tehran simultaneously halting retaliatory strikes against US bases in neighboring countries.

Washington suspended its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend, leading to three consecutive days without attacks. Tehran’s foreign ministry countered that no direct negotiations with the US are taking place, noting its only active dialogue is with Oman regarding the future of the Strait.

Traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision this week, where central bank officials are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. While lingering inflationary pressures have led a minority of traders to speculate on an immediate rate increase, the prevailing consensus suggests that any potential hike would likely be deferred until September.

On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends. 

Weldon explained why he has shifted back to a bullish outlook on gold and silver following the recent correction, arguing that the long-term bull market in precious metals remains firmly intact.

Gold and Silver investment outlook turns bullish againWeldon said he previously anticipated silver would correct toward $61 per ounce, with a worst-case target near $54, after successfully exiting positions between $96 and $98 when prices had traded above $100. 

With silver now recovering above $60, he believes investors have another opportunity to accumulate physical precious metals. He described the current environment as a "back the truck up" moment, adding that he is personally converting long-term savings into physical gold and silver rather than holding excess cash. He also noted that one of his silver-share investments returned 167%, after being up as much as 217% before profits were taken.

Weldon remains especially optimistic about silver's future. He reiterated that the breakout above $36.50 confirmed a major secular bull market and argued that today's rally is supported by genuine supply deficits and rising industrial demand rather than speculative excess. Based on his long-term macroeconomic analysis, he projects silver could ultimately reach approximately $326 per ounce within the next five to seven years.

AI bubble, stock market risks, and Federal Reserve policyThe conversation then turned to broader financial markets, where Weldon expressed growing concern that artificial intelligence has become the latest investment bubble. He argued that enormous capital spending on AI infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and data centers is approaching saturation, leaving technology stocks vulnerable if spending begins to slow. In his view, a significant stock market correction could temporarily pressure many asset classes before ultimately strengthening demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Maharrey and Weldon also discussed the bond market and Federal Reserve policy. Weldon believes rising long-term interest rates reflect slowing economic growth, tightening financial conditions, and increasing fiscal concerns rather than healthy economic expansion. While higher yields can create short-term headwinds for gold, he argued that expanding government debt and deteriorating fiscal conditions ultimately leave policymakers with few options other than renewed monetary stimulus.

Regarding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, Weldon praised his communication skills but questioned whether the Fed can realistically maintain a hardline stance against inflation. He believes any meaningful economic slowdown or stock market decline would force policymakers to abandon restrictive monetary policy and return to quantitative easing and money creation, despite public commitments to fighting inflation.

Inflation, food prices, and energy market challengesAnother major focus of the interview centered on inflation, particularly rising food costs. Weldon argued that weather-related disruptions remain one of the most overlooked inflationary risks. He pointed to historically low snowpack across the western United States, declining fog moisture in Northern California, and NOAA's forecast for an unusually severe El Niño expected to persist into April of next year. According to Weldon, these conditions threaten agricultural production across multiple regions, including sugar production in Thailand and coffee crops in Brazil and Vietnam.

He also warned that petroleum markets remain structurally tight despite hopes that geopolitical tensions could ease. With crude oil reserves at historically low levels and food inflation likely accelerating alongside energy costs, Weldon believes inflation will remain well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target, placing policymakers in an increasingly difficult position.

China, rare earth minerals, and the long-term case for GoldThe interview concluded with a discussion of global geopolitics and strategic resource competition. Weldon argued that China has built a substantial long-term advantage through its control of rare earth minerals, commodity supply chains, and growing gold reserves. He noted that China, Russia, and Vietnam control more than 80% of the world's rare earth resources, leaving the United States heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for many critical materials used in advanced manufacturing and defense.

Weldon believes these geopolitical trends, combined with mounting U.S. government debt, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure on the dollar, reinforce the long-term investment case for physical gold and silver. 

Throughout the interview, he emphasized that investors should focus less on short-term market volatility and more on preserving purchasing power through ownership of tangible assets as the global economic and monetary landscape continues to evolve.

Death Cross and $55 Support Test Weigh on Long-Term Trend The market recently tested the $55 level for support, where it bounced, but we can see a series of lower highs and lower lows on the chart, although it has stabilized somewhat in the recent past. The headlines coming out of the Middle East will continue to be influential as to where we go next, and with that, I think this is a market that will remain very noisy.

Over the longer term, we should go looking to the overall momentum to pick up and eventually break out of this malaise. The question, of course, is which direction? Unfortunately, this is a market that, like many other markets, has to contend with erratic headlines that influence inflation coming out of the Middle East. And as long as that’s the case, it’s hard to trust anything.

Silver (XAG/USD) rallies on Monday and trades around $59.45 at the time of writing, up 2.27% on the day. The white metal benefits from a sharp decline in Oil prices following renewed hopes for de-escalation between the United States (US) and Iran, a backdrop that strengthens expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from major central banks.

Military tensions between the two countries have paused after US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said US President Donald Trump had decided to suspend military strikes to allow more time for diplomacy. According to Reuters, an Iranian official also stated that Tehran would halt its attacks as long as Washington does the same.

This development is weighing heavily on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by nearly 8% at the time of press. Lower energy prices help ease concerns over persistently high inflation, reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening and supporting non-yielding assets such as Silver.

At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar (USD) are providing additional support to the precious metal. Investors have scaled back expectations for further interest rate hikes as inflation risks linked to energy prices continue to fade.

Market attention now turns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely scrutinize the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further clues about the future path of monetary policy.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The most striking signal in this week's Commitments of Traders report came from feeder cattle, where positioning reached a bullish extreme that took almost two years to develop.

Readings of this length are unusual. They show that the current positioning structure has moved beyond the range seen in the previous 100-plus reports, making the signal more meaningful than a short-lived weekly fluctuation.

The feeder cattle reading is also consistent with the broader picture in live cattle. Commercial participants recorded a larger-than-average change in their net position for the second consecutive week, with both markets currently leaning toward higher prices in the near term.

Why the feeder cattle extreme mattersCommercial participants are directly involved in the underlying physical market and generally use futures to manage business risk. Their positioning should not be interpreted as a straightforward speculative trade, but unusually stretched readings can still reveal when the balance of exposure has changed materially.

A two-year extreme does not guarantee an immediate rally, and COT data is not designed to provide precise entry timing. It does, however, identify feeder cattle as a market where positioning has become historically unusual and where the current structure supports a bullish interpretation.

The similar signal in live cattle adds weight to that conclusion. When related markets begin to show aligned commercial positioning, the broader sector picture becomes more relevant than an isolated move in a single contract.

New Zealand dollar posts its largest bearish shift in a yearThe New Zealand dollar produced the clearest bearish change signal among the currency markets in the latest report.

Commercials recorded their largest change in net positioning over the past year. Price has already started to move lower, which means the positioning signal is beginning to receive confirmation from the market itself.

That distinction is important. A large weekly change can show that positioning is turning, while subsequent price action helps indicate whether the market is responding in the same direction. In the New Zealand dollar, the current combination remains bearish, although the move should still be assessed alongside the broader US dollar trend and incoming macroeconomic developments.

Soybeans show bearish positioning before price reactsSoybeans present a different type of setup. The latest COT signals lean bearish, while price has not yet made a decisive move in response.

The market is also approaching a significant resistance area. This creates a potentially important test: if price struggles at resistance while positioning continues to weaken, the bearish case would become more convincing.

For now, the signal remains developing rather than confirmed. The value of the COT data is that it can highlight a change in market structure before that shift becomes obvious on a standard price chart. Traders should therefore watch how soybeans behave around resistance and whether the next reports reinforce or weaken the current positioning pattern.

Silver approaches a 124-report extremeSilver is showing one of the most historically stretched readings in this week's report.

Large speculators have reached a 124-report extreme, a level that also took close to two years to form. In my view, this type of positioning may indicate that a bottom is beginning to develop.

That interpretation requires caution. Extreme positioning can persist, and it does not confirm that the final low is already in place. However, readings that extend across more than 100 reports deserve attention because they show that speculative exposure has moved to a level rarely seen in recent history.

The next step is to watch whether price begins to stabilise and whether subsequent COT reports show the positioning extreme starting to reverse. A combination of historically stretched positioning and improving price action would provide stronger evidence that a bottoming process is underway.

The key takeawayThis week's data presents three distinct positioning stories.

Feeder cattle has reached a rare two-year bullish extreme, supported by another constructive commercial shift in live cattle. The New Zealand dollar has produced its largest bearish commercial change in a year, with price already moving in the same direction. Soybeans are showing a developing bearish setup near resistance, while silver's 124-report large-speculator extreme may be an early sign that a bottom is forming.

None of these readings should be treated as standalone trading signals. Their value lies in showing where major participant groups are changing exposure, where positioning has become historically stretched and where the market may be approaching an important transition.

Price shows what the market has already done. Positioning can provide additional context about who is behind the move and where the balance may be shifting next.

I explain the full report and walk through every chart in this week's COTbase video review