Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Silver trades modestly lower on Thursday, holding within Monday’s trading range as buyers take a breather following the strong rally seen at the start of the month. The metal largely shrugs off the latest US inflation data, which has reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $64.00, down 0.80% on the day.

While fading Fed rate-hike expectations would normally support the non-yielding metal, traders appear reluctant to chase Silver higher. The July inflation readings are seen as delaying the next rate increase rather than taking it off the table, as the inflation outlook remains uncertain and energy-driven price pressures could pick up again with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) supported near the upper end of its recent range, adding to the headwinds for Silver.

Technical analysis

XAG/USD holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61.42 after rebounding strongly from the mid-$50s. Momentum indicators suggest that Silver could enter a period of consolidation before its next directional move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 58 after climbing above 60 earlier this week, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory but its green histogram bars are fading. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27 suggests the uptrend is still developing but lacks strong conviction.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at $68.80, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.56. On the downside, the 50-day SMA at $61.42 offers immediate support, followed by the $60.00 psychological mark. A deeper pullback could expose the $55.00 horizontal support area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower around $64.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.64% on the day. The white metal consolidates after its recent advance as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of the release of US producer inflation data. Despite the pullback, easing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to provide support for Silver.

The latest United States (US) inflation data reinforced the view that price pressures are gradually easing. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, eased to 2.5% from 2.6% previously, in line with expectations.

These figures reduce the need for the Fed to raise interest rates quickly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 38% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 54% a week earlier. This reassessment of the monetary policy outlook is also weighing on short-term US Treasury yields, an environment that generally benefits non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Another sign of easing inflationary pressures could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged and support Silver. Conversely, an upside surprise in producer prices could revive expectations of further monetary tightening and put additional pressure on the white metal.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.88, holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.78 and the 200-period SMA at $62.41, which keeps the near-term bias constructive despite the recent pullback from the mid-$66s. The loss of momentum is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing toward the mid-40s, hinting at a consolidative phase rather than outright bearish pressure while price remains supported by these underlying averages.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period SMA around $64.78, ahead of the horizontal floor near $63.00 and the deeper structural base provided by the 200-period SMA at $62.41. On the topside, XAG/USD would need to reclaim the former uptrend support line turned barrier around $66.65, followed by the horizontal resistance near $66.80, to revive the bullish sequence toward fresh highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $65.40 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Silver price struggles for a direction; however, an expected slowdown in United States (US) inflationary pressures in July has improved its outlook.

On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth cooled down to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.5% in June. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – also arrived lower at 2.5% YoY, as expected, against the previous reading of 2.6%.

Signs of price pressures cooling down have eased fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 60% from 30.4% seen a month ago.

Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.  

Silver Technical Analysis

XAG/USD trades flat at around $65.40, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.66 and keeping a constructive near-term bullish bias. The positioning above this short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains firm, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.17 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that bullish momentum is still in play.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at $61.66, which acts as the key dynamic floor that would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. Looking up, the white metal would attempt to extend the advance towards the June 16 high at $71.19 if it manages to break the ongoing consolidation on the upside above $66.59.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Wednesday and trades around $66.00 at the time of writing, up 2.18% on the day. The white metal benefits from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields following the release of the latest United States (US) inflation data, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM in July after falling 0.4% in June, while the annual rate eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Both figures come in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, also matching forecasts.

The market reaction favors Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, falls slightly following the release. US Treasury yields also decline, with the 2-year yield falling by around four basis points to trade near 4.18%.

Lower bond yields tend to support non-yielding precious metals such as Silver by reducing their opportunity cost. At the same time, a weaker US Dollar makes the Dollar-denominated metal cheaper for investors using other currencies.

The inflation figures, however, do not radically alter the monetary policy outlook. With headline inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target and elevated Oil prices keeping upside inflation risks alive, investors continue to expect monetary policy to remain restrictive. Nevertheless, the chance of a September rate hike falls to around 38% from 44% before the release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The geopolitical backdrop provides additional support to Silver. According to Reuters, a senior Iranian source says that no discussions are currently taking place over an extension of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The source also claims that Washington violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached before withdrawing from it a few days later.

These tensions maintain uncertainty over a lasting normalization of the situation in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting elevated Oil prices remain a potential source of inflationary pressure while simultaneously supporting demand for safe-haven assets. This combination of a slightly weaker US Dollar, lower US Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical risk allows Silver to maintain strong bullish momentum on Wednesday.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.03, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. The metal also remains above an upwards-sloping trend-line support, now coming in around $65.57, which reinforces a constructive structure after the latest advance. Momentum is positive but not extreme, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 59, suggesting steady buying interest without yet reaching overbought territory.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the trend-line near $65.57, ahead of a deeper cushion at the 100-hour SMA around $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at $66.80; a sustained break above this cap would open the way for further gains, while failure to clear it could trigger consolidation back toward the nearby trend-line support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The $70 level above is an area that previously had been both support and resistance, so it’s an area that could very well end up being a target or at least an area of interest. Short-term pullbacks will be looked at as potential buying opportunities by those who have been bullish over the last couple of weeks.

Fed Expectations and Technical Levels We’ve recently broken out of a fairly significant consolidation area with the $60 level offering a little bit of a floor. Ultimately, this is a market that tends to be very sensitive to interest rates, so we’ll have to watch that to get a read on any attempt at that correlation coming back to the situation, as well as the US dollar. If it strengthens, it sometimes works against the value of silver.

Traders are still trying to figure out what to do about the idea of the Federal Reserve and rate hikes later this year, and that is being reflected in the price of silver as well. This is a market that I like longer term, but I also am aware of the influence from external places that continue to be a major issue here. I am watching the US dollar and the US interest rates for clues in this market.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.56 per troy ounce, up 3.06% from the $64.58 it cost on Tuesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 6.36% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.32 on Wednesday, down from 67.64 on Tuesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.1% higher at around $65.40 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal reflects strength ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to estimates, the US headline CPI grew at an annual pace of 3.4%, slower than 3.5% in June. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also seen lower at 2.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 2.6%.

On a monthly basis, the headline and core inflation grew by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In the latest monetary policy announcement, Chairman Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks, adding that the board is committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, surging oil prices due to restricted global energy supply on the back of Middle East conflicts will likely limit the Silver price’s upside.

According to data from Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, was recorded at just six vessels on August 10, down from a recent 10-day average of about 11. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily, Reuters reports.

On Tuesday, the CME Group said that it will allow round-the-clock trading in its 100-ounce silver futures contract from September after seeing a strong response for the 1-ounce Gold futures contract, which began on July 24, Reuters reports.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.53, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.28 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias.

Price action has steadily pushed away from the prior consolidation zone, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.21 stays in positive territory but short of overbought, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive without being overstretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $61.28, which underpins the broader rebound and would be the first line of defense on any pullback. Looking up, the white metal would attempt to extend the advance towards the June 17 high at $71.56 if it manages to break above the August 10 high at $66.59.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower at the mid-session on Tuesday after giving back earlier gains. The rally stalled early in the session at $66.48. The price came in near the mid-point of the 50-day moving average at $61.75 and the 200-day moving average at $71.26.

The actual mid-point between the two indicators is $66.51. Let’s call that the pivot that will determine the direction of the last major move. A sustained move over $66.51 will indicate the presence of buyers.

If this generates enough upside momentum, we could see a near-term surge into the 200-day MA at $71.26 or a long-term 50% level at $72.08. A sustained move under $66.51 will signal the presence of sellers. This could fuel a near-term break into the 50-day MA at $61.75 or the long-term 50% level at $60.835.

What to Watch Silver is stuck between oil pushing inflation expectations higher and a CPI print that could reverse the pressure. The failure at $66.48 showed that buyers are not willing to lead ahead of the data, and rising hike odds say the rate trade is not going away on its own. Wednesday’s number is the catalyst. Soft inflation reopens the bid. Hot inflation keeps oil and the Fed in control.

The rejection at the midpoint between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages makes $66.51 the level that defines the next move. A push above it targets the 200-day. A sustained failure keeps sellers pointed toward the 50-day.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its correction on Tuesday and trades around $65.05 at the time of writing, down 2.31% on the day. The white metal retreats from the seven-week high reached at $66.59 on Monday as rising Oil prices and prospects of tighter monetary policy in the United States (US) weigh on precious metals.

Oil prices have risen sharply since the beginning of the week as negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Iran is conditioning the reopening of this strategic maritime route on several demands from Washington, including the payment of war reparations and the lifting of sanctions.

Some signs of easing tensions are nevertheless emerging. Qatar says on Tuesday that negotiations between Oman and Iran have reached an advanced stage and that it has received positive feedback from both sides. Doha stresses, however, that the talks are at a critical juncture, maintaining uncertainty over the prospect of a swift agreement.

This situation supports energy prices and revives concerns about US inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $81.20, up more than 5% since the beginning of the week, despite the daily decline. Higher Oil prices are also helping to keep US Treasury yields elevated, reducing the appeal of Silver, a non-yielding asset.

Against this backdrop, investors are increasing their expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now estimate a 52% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the September meeting, up from approximately 44% the day before.

Comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack are also fueling these expectations. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and argued that the Fed will need to raise interest rates more than once to bring inflation back toward its target.

These prospects provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and represent an additional headwind for Silver. A stronger US Dollar tends to make the white metal more expensive for investors using other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Investors now turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a September rate hike and maintain pressure on Silver. Conversely, easing price pressures could reduce expectations of monetary tightening and provide support to the precious metal.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Tuesday, retreating to levels below $64.50, after rejection at seven-week highs around $66.60 on Monday. A more cautious market mood, as the peace negotiations between the US and Iran stall, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are providing some support to the US Dollar.

Precious metals are struggling on Tuesday as the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which drives away hopes of a swift peace deal and pushes Oil prices higher. 

Apart from that, Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack, affirmed on Monday that the current monetary policy "is not hurting the economy" and that the bank will have to hike rates more than once to bring inflation back to target. These comments triggered some hopes of a September rate hike, although investors await the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reading, due on Wednesday, for confirmation.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at the $63.30 area

XAG/USD has reached the target of the bullish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern in the $67.00 area, before correcting to the mid-range of the $64.00s. Momentum indicators in the daily chart have eased but remain within bullish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator above zero.

Bears are likely to be tested at the previous resistance area, now turned support, around $63.30. A confirmation below here would shift the focus towards the August 6 and 7 low, around $61.00, ahead of the broken H&S neckline, now around $51.55.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the two-month high of $67.17 ahead of a more critical barrier formed by the 200-day SMA at $71.38 and the mid-June highs around $71.50.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after two days of gains, trading around $66.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of non-yielding Silver has taken a hit recently as rising oil prices spark renewed inflation fears and heighten expectations for interest rate hikes.

Markets remain deeply cautious due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential deal between the United States (US) and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical tension has driven a sharp rally in crude oil, which in turn has pushed Treasury yields higher.

Meanwhile, concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation data this week to gauge the Fed's next move, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September have climbed above 51%, up from 44.4% just a day prior.

Despite these immediate headwinds, the outlook for the white metal isn't entirely dim, as strong industrial demand could soon provide a solid floor for prices. Silver continues to benefit from major global initiatives, particularly the expanding production of solar panels and upgrades to electrical grids. Underscoring this robust physical demand, recent trade data revealed that Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores experienced a massive surge, jumping 62.5% year-over-year in June to reach 219,000 tonnes.

Silver price pulled back after hitting seven-week highs on Monday amid a rally in gold fueled by improving investment demand for precious metals. According to TD Securities, “precious metals hit pause,” with the yellow metal “holding gains after the weaker jobs numbers further questioned the probability of coming Fed hikes.” The bank’s commodity strategists note that the softer US labor data has eased perceived policy tightening risks, helping to underpin gold prices even as broader momentum in the complex stalls.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Interest Rates and Currency Influences Regardless, one thing that I’ll be watching is the interest rate market and seeing where rates go. They are kind of steady, and that at least gives some cover for silver to rise because rising rates, historically speaking, have been very negative for silver markets in general.

So, part of that is possibly due to the fact that silver’s non-yielding. It’s also the U.S. dollar strengthening. Silver is priced in U.S. dollars, after all, but it’s not a 100% correlation, so it’s just one of the factors here. As things stand right now, it looks like the buyers have been in control for 4 or 5 days for the most part. They are trying to make their presence known early on Monday.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.24 per troy ounce, up 1.08% from the $63.55 it cost on Friday.

Silver prices have decreased by 9.63% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.68 on Monday, down from 68.32 on Friday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) appreciates for the second consecutive day on Monday, trading around $64.30 after confirming above July’s peak in the $63.30 area. The pair rallied on Friday following downbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data, to close its best weekly performance since February, and maintains its bullish tone intact this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) depressed below the key 100.00 level.

Precious metals extended their recovery on Friday as the unexpected decline in July’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data cooled expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes further. Data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics revealed that net jobs dropped by 23K last month, against market expectations of an 80K increase, and employment growth figures from the previous two months were revised sharply lower.

Futures markets reduced the odds for a September rate hike to 44% from 67% one week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which sent the US Dollar tumbling across the board. Investors will be looking at the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, due on Wednesday, to confirm those views.

Technical Analysis: The next target is the $67.15 area

XAG/USD has broken above the $63.30 area, confirming a bullish Head & Shoulders (H&S) figure, a common pattern for trend shifts. Momentum indicators in the daily chart are supporting the bullish view, as the Relative Strength Index (14) trends higher within the low-60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line advances further into positive territory, suggesting buyers retain control.

On the topside, the measured target of the H&S pattern is at the June 22 high at $67.17. Further up, the 200-day SMA meets the mid-June high in the mid $77s. A bearish reaction below the mentioned $63.30, on the contrary, would expose August 6 and 7 lows around $61.00 ahead of the August 5 low, at $59.40.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $63.50 during the Asian trading session at the start of the week. The white metal struggles for a direction but is close to an almost seven-week high of $65.16 posted on Friday.

Bullions are expected to face heightened volatility, with the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July on the radar, releasing on Wednesday.

The impact of the US CPI data will likely be significant on the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, as comments in the July monetary policy statement signaled that officials are heavily concerned about high inflation and are committed to bringing price pressures down to the 2% target.

Higher US inflationary pressures prompt Fed interest rate hike risks, a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

On Friday, the Silver price gained sharply as traders scaled back hawkish Fed bets for the September policy meeting after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which showed a reduction in the overall labor force.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising policy rates in the September meeting are 46%, a sharp decline from 67% seen a week ago.

The US NFP report showed employers fired 23K workers, while they were anticipated to create 80K fresh jobs. Also, June’s NFP print was revised lower to 20K from 57K.

Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver finished sharply higher on Friday after taking out the 50-day moving average at $62.14. The market also closed above the indicator suggesting the presence of strong buyers.

The main trend is up according to two metrics. On Wednesday, the trend changed to up on the swing chart when buyers took out $60.94. It was reaffirmed on Friday when the July 6 main top at $63.28 was taken out. Crossing to the strong side of the 50-day MA also reaffirmed the uptrend.

The new short-term range is $54.78 to $65.16. If the 50-day MA fails as support then look for a possible pullback into the minor retracement zone at $59.97 to $58.75. Short-term traders should note that a trade through $56.56 will change the trend to down.

Long-term traders should pay close attention to the 50-day MA at $62.14, the long-term 50% level at $60.84 and the July 17 main bottom at $54.78. These are the key levels that will influence the longer-term direction.

On the upside, a sustained move over Friday’s high at $65.16 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 200-day moving average at $71.09.

What to Watch Friday’s close tells traders the market believes the Fed has less room to act next month. The payroll loss was the main event. Cooler wages and a participation drop added to the case. Silver needs crude to stay contained and the dollar to stay on the defensive next week. A rebound in oil or a fresh round of hawkish pushback from Fed officials gives profit-takers from Friday’s close a reason to press the market.

The uptrend is confirmed on the swing chart and the 50-day moving average. The close above $63.28 reaffirmed it. Buyers have the 50-day at $62.14 as the first support and the long-term 50% level at $60.84 underneath that. A sustained move above Friday’s high at $65.16 reopens the path toward the 200-day moving average. A failure to hold the 50-day tells you the rally was short covering, not a trend change.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver (XAG/USD) jumps nearly 4% on Friday as buying accelerates following a decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $62. At the time of writing, the grey metal trades around $63.94 after briefly testing the $65 psychological mark.

The advance comes after disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures drag the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields lower. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50, down nearly 0.45% on the day.

The US economy lost 23K jobs in July, even though experts had expected an increase of 80K. The job growth for June was also revised down to 20K from the previously reported 57K.

As a result, traders quickly trimmed bets on a September Fed rate hike, with the probability falling to around 42% from 67% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Technical analysis: Daily chart

On the daily chart, XAG/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as price stands above the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Momentum backs the constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising into the low-60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator extending further into positive territory with a firm bullish spread and expanding histogram.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at $65, ahead of the 100-day SMA barrier at $69. A sustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the higher horizontal resistance near $75.

On the downside, immediate support is found at the 50-day SMA at $62, followed by the psychological horizontal floor at $60. Below there, the 21-day SMA at $58 and the lower horizontal level at $55 form a deeper demand zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Silver price has surged over 10% this week to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June, pulling the gold/silver ratio back below 70. However, he highlights that solar-sector demand is set to decline for a second year, with Silver’s share in solar modules and total demand expected to fall despite still-elevated prices.

Solar sector drag on silver demand"Prices for silver, platinum and palladium also rose sharply in the wake of gold. Since the start of the week, the silver price has risen by more than 10% to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June. As a result, the gold/silver ratio has fallen below 70 again."

"The tailwind for the silver price from the solar industry could be slowing down. BNEF estimates that 19% less silver will be used in the production of solar modules this year than last year."

"This would mark the second consecutive decline. The solar industry’s share of total silver demand is therefore expected to fall to 14%, down from 18% last year. BNEF’s assessment largely aligns with that of the Silver Institute in April, which also anticipates a significant decline in demand from the photovoltaic sector this year."

"BNEF attributes this to a reduction in the use of silver in silicon solar cells, which is expected to fall by a further 17% this year. This was likely triggered by the sharp rise in prices, which reached a record high of USD 120 per troy ounce at the end of January."

"The silver price has since fallen by roughly half, but is still around 65% higher than a year ago. According to BNEF, silver currently accounts for more than 17% of the production costs of a solar module, making it the largest component of material costs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Why weak payrolls broke the week’s stalemate, and why Hormuz, Saudi warnings and US-China tensions mean the move isn’t a simple green light for risk What’s happening: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K against expectations for an 85K gain, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed. Markets responded by cutting September Fed hike odds to around 42%, sending the Dollar broadly lower, Gold decisively above $4,300 and Silver toward $65, while USD/JPY reversed back toward 155.Why it matters: This is the catalyst markets had been waiting for all week, but equities responded far more cautiously than the Dollar or precious metals, since outright payroll contraction alongside heavy downward revisions raises real growth concerns, not just rate-cut hopes. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but not automatically good for risk assets.Also today: Hormuz talks are progressing, but reported Iranian draft terms, barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran, look far more conditional than a genuine reopening. Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey while warning of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, raising the risk that diplomatic progress and military escalation are running on separate tracks at once. The US imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon imports, extending US-China strategic competition into solar, semiconductor and AI-infrastructure supply chains just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year. NFP Delivers the Shock Markets Were Waiting For The US jobs report finally gave markets the catalyst they had been waiting for, sending the Dollar sharply lower and precious metals surging as traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K in July, compared with expectations for an 85K increase, but the headline shock was only part of the story. May payroll growth was revised down from 129K to 63K and June from 57K to just 20K, wiping 103K from previously reported employment gains. Average hourly earnings also slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% month-over-month, adding to evidence that the labor market is losing momentum. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the accompanying decline in participation from 61.5% to 61.4% made that improvement less reassuring.

July NFP Breakdown Headline NFP: -23K, against expectations for +85K May payrolls: revised down from 129K to 63K June payrolls: revised down from 57K to 20K (103K wiped from prior reports combined) Average hourly earnings: slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% m/m Unemployment rate: dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, though participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4% Why the Hawkish Case Just Got Harder Markets responded by quickly cutting the probability of a September Fed hike to around 42%. That represents a significant challenge to the hawkish case put forward by several Fed officials this week. Kashkari argued that the Fed should begin raising rates gradually, while Musalem said policymakers should be prepared to surprise markets rather than allow prevailing pricing to dictate policy. But their argument partly rests on the economy and labor market being resilient enough to absorb additional tightening. Negative payroll growth, substantial downward revisions and softer wages raise that hurdle considerably. Inflation remains too high for the Fed to declare victory, particularly with energy risks unresolved, but the latest employment report strengthens the majority case for waiting rather than tightening pre-emptively.

Dollar Reaction Was Broad, and USD/JPY Is the Story to Watch The Dollar reaction was broad. EUR/USD and AUD/USD broke to fresh highs for the week, while USD/JPY reversed much of its rebound and headed back toward 155. That move is particularly notable after last week’s rare US-Japan intervention. As discussed ahead of payrolls, intervention had created an asymmetric setup: traders chasing USD/JPY toward 160 after strong data would have to contend with renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July NFP delivered precisely that downside scenario.

The Canadian Dollar performed even better after Canada simultaneously reported a 75.1K employment surge against expectations for 17.8K, while unemployment fell from 6.5% to 6.4%. USD/CAD therefore faced pressure from both sides, weak US employment and unexpectedly strong Canadian hiring.

Gold and Silver Break Higher as Fed Hike Risk Fades The reaction in precious metals was immediate. Gold decisively cleared 4,300, a level that had capped its rebound earlier this week, and accelerated above 4,350. Silver simultaneously surged toward $65. Both moves reinforce the case that recent precious-metals rallies are developing into something more substantial than corrective rebounds. Lower Fed hike expectations reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar, while geopolitical uncertainty provides another layer of support.

Gold’s break is particularly significant because 4,300 had represented the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 4889.24 to 3942.23, near 4303.98. Earlier attempts to clear that area had stalled as Treasury yields and Brent awaited confirmation of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. NFP has now supplied a separate catalyst. If Gold can sustain the breakout, attention should increasingly shift toward medium-term trend line resistance around 4,500.

Key Technical Levels Gold: cleared 4,300 (the 38.2% retracement of the 4889.24-3942.23 decline, near 4303.98) and accelerated above 4,350 Silver: surging toward $65 Next resistance: medium-term trend line around 4,500 Equities Show Restraint: Good for Rates, Not Automatically Good for Risk Equities delivered a more restrained response. Dow futures rose around 170 points, leaving the index within reach of another challenge to the record set earlier this week, but the reaction was nowhere near as forceful as the moves in Dollar or precious metals. That restraint is understandable. Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which supports valuations, but outright payroll contraction accompanied by substantial downward revisions also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may therefore be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but no longer automatically good for risk assets.

Hormuz Talks Progress, but the Details Complicate the Optimism That caution is reinforced by increasingly complicated developments in the Middle East. Iran and Oman continue working toward an arrangement defining shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, but despite expectations earlier this week that an agreement could arrive quickly, no final deal has yet been announced. The latest reports suggest inbound traffic could travel through Iranian waters while outbound vessels use Omani waters. Yet the reported Iranian draft terms raise questions over how closely any arrangement would resemble a genuine normalization of shipping.

Under the apparent draft proposal, US and Israeli vessels would be barred from using the Strait, while countries deemed to have harmed Iran could face restrictions until compensation is paid. Such conditions would make the proposed arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. It also remains unclear how the temporary framework would evolve into a durable settlement. Markets have spent much of the week pricing falling geopolitical risk through lower oil and stronger equities, but the details now matter more than general expectations of a deal.

Diplomatic Rhetoric Turns More Hostile Diplomatic rhetoric is simultaneously becoming more hostile. Iran’s chief negotiator accused US President Donald Trump of engaging in “theater diplomacy,” highlighting conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran over bilateral contacts. More importantly, progress over Hormuz is occurring alongside signs that regional military risks may be increasing rather than disappearing.

Saudi Warnings Add a New Escalation Risk Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca on Friday as Riyadh warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups. A senior Saudi official said intelligence from Saudi Arabia, the US and other regional countries pointed to potential attacks from Iraqi militias to the north and Houthis in Yemen to the south, potentially targeting civilian and economic infrastructure including energy facilities, ports and airports.

Particularly important was the Saudi official’s suggestion that possible attacks could reflect “a power struggle within Iran itself” and might be intended to derail negotiations that had otherwise been “heading in the right direction.” If that assessment proves accurate, it complicates the assumption that diplomatic progress automatically translates into lower geopolitical risk. Negotiations over Hormuz could advance at the government level while other actors simultaneously attempt to undermine them through military escalation.

Two Middle East Stories on Separate Tracks That creates two Middle East stories moving on separate tracks. One is diplomatic: Iran and Oman are trying to establish a framework that could restore more normal shipping through the Strait. The other is military: Gulf states are preparing for the possibility that regional attacks could intensify even while those negotiations continue. Brent’s recent inability to extend decisively below $78 and subsequent rebound above $83 increasingly looks consistent with that uncertainty.

US-China Competition Intensifies on Another Front Geopolitics is also moving beyond the Middle East. The Trump administration imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon products on Thursday and introduced minimum prices for some related imports, explicitly framing the measure as an effort to protect US solar and semiconductor supply chains from Chinese competition. Polysilicon sits at the intersection of several strategic priorities, solar power, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and energy security, making the move another example of economic policy becoming inseparable from great-power competition.

The timing is notable given China’s strong July trade figures. Chinese exports rose 23.9% year-over-year, beating expectations, while chip exports surged 117% as global AI infrastructure demand continued to power high-tech manufacturing. Washington’s latest action therefore comes precisely as advanced technology becomes an increasingly important source of Chinese export growth. That suggests trade tensions are shifting further toward sectors viewed as strategically important rather than simply those generating large bilateral deficits.

What This Means Heading Into the Weekend For markets, the immediate driver remains the US employment shock. The Dollar has broken lower, Gold has cleared $4,300, Silver is approaching $65 and September Fed hike expectations have retreated sharply. But heading into the weekend, weaker payrolls cannot be treated as a straightforward invitation to extend risk-on positions. The Hormuz agreement remains unfinished, regional military threats are increasing, and US-China strategic competition is intensifying. NFP has broken this week’s market stalemate; whether those moves survive next week may depend increasingly on what happens outside the economic calendar.

Related Coverage Jobs & Trade Data Deep Dives Read the full NFP breakdown showing how deep the downward revisions cut into prior job gains: US Non-Farm Payrolls Contract -23k. Revisions Expose Deeper Labor Market Weakness. See the full Canada jobs report, including why wage growth cooling to 2.8% still reduces pressure for more BoC support: Canada Jobs Surge 75K as Unemployment Falls to Two-Year Low. Read why China’s export beat still raises sustainability questions once tariff front-loading fades: China Exports Rise 23.9% YoY as High-Tech Demand Defies Tariffs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did equities react more cautiously than the Dollar and Gold to the NFP miss? A: Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which normally supports valuations. But outright payroll contraction, combined with substantial downward revisions to May and June, also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates but no longer automatically good for risk assets, which is why Dow futures rose a modest 170 points while the Dollar and precious metals moved far more forcefully.

Q: Why does USD/JPY’s move back toward 155 matter after last week’s intervention? A: Last week’s coordinated US-Japan intervention created an asymmetric setup: traders pushing USD/JPY back toward 160 on strong data would face renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July’s NFP delivered exactly that downside scenario, reversing much of USD/JPY’s prior rebound with no offsetting pushback expected from Japanese authorities.

Q: Does progress on Hormuz shipping talks mean geopolitical risk is actually falling? A: Not necessarily. Reported draft terms would bar US and Israeli vessels from the Strait and threaten restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran until compensation is paid, conditions that make any arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, which a Saudi official suggested could reflect a power struggle within Iran aimed at derailing the negotiations. That means diplomatic progress and military escalation risk could be running on separate tracks simultaneously.

Key Takeaways NFP delivered a genuine shock: Headline payrolls fell -23K against expectations for +85K, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed to 0.1% m/m. September Fed hike odds were cut to around 42%: The report significantly raises the hurdle for the hawkish case made by Kashkari and Musalem this week, since it rested on the economy being resilient enough to absorb more tightening. Dollar, Gold and Silver moved far more forcefully than equities: Gold cleared 4,300 and accelerated above 4,350, and Silver pushed toward $65, but Dow futures rose a more modest 170 points, since weak payrolls raise growth questions even as they support the case for a Fed pause. USD/JPY’s reversal toward 155 fits last week’s intervention asymmetry: A data-driven move lower carries no equivalent official deterrent to the one traders would face pushing the pair back toward 160. Hormuz progress comes with complicating conditions: Reported draft terms barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on other countries look far more conditional than a genuine reopening, while Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact and attack warnings suggest military risk could be rising even as talks continue. US-China tensions are extending into strategic technology supply chains: The new US polysilicon tariff lands just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year, pointing to trade friction shifting toward strategically important sectors. What to Watch Next Whether this week’s moves hold into next week may depend less on the economic calendar than on developments outside it: whether the Hormuz framework firms into something closer to an unconditional reopening, whether Saudi Arabia’s escalation warnings materialize, and whether US-China tensions extend further into strategic technology sectors.

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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Silver (XAG) continues to follow our Elliott Wave outlook after completing the wave ((iv)) pullback at 60.8514. Buyers have driven the metal higher into the final five-wave advance in wave ((v)). The corrective rally is now entering its final stage. Although the short-term trend remains bullish, the Elliott Wave structure points to limited upside. We expect sellers to return once price reaches key Fibonacci resistance.

The 60-minute Elliott Wave chart shows Silver advancing in wave ((v)) of red wave C, which forms part of a larger wave (B) Flat correction. Fifth waves often extend toward the 1.236–1.618 Fibonacci external retracement of wave ((iv)). That gives an initial target between 63.42 and 64.24. Silver has already reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave A. However, buyers could still push prices toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 67.00 before the rally ends.

Our Silver Elliott Wave forecast points to the 62.00–67.00 area as the next major resistance zone. We expect the current bounce to finish within the next 24 hours. After that, sellers should regain control and resume the larger bearish trend.

Overall, Silver remains bullish in the very short term while wave ((v)) continues to develop. Traders should avoid chasing prices into the earlier mentioned resistance zone. Instead, they should watch for signs of exhaustion before positioning for the next move lower.

XAG 60 Min. Elliott Wave Chart

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Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower Thursday after hitting its highest level since July 6 at $62.91. At first, the breakout over the 50-day moving average at $62.36 suggested the buying was getting stronger. However, the sudden reversal and break back under the 50-day moving average suggest the move may have been a bull trap.

The 50-day moving average, today’s intraday high at $62.91 and the July 6 swing top at $63.28 are now resistance levels.

The first downside target is the long-term 50% level at $60.835. If a test of this level fails to bring in buyers, look for a potential break into the retracement zone at $58.84 to $57.89.

Since the swing chart trend indicator turned up Wednesday, traders may have shifted into buy-the-dip mode. The first area they are likely to defend is $60.835, followed by $58.84 to $57.89. They are likely to remain in this mode until the swing bottom at $56.64 is violated.

A sustained move over the intraday high at $62.91 could trigger a test of $63.28. Taking out this swing top would reaffirm the uptrend and put the 200-day moving average at $71.01 on the radar.

What to Watch Silver ran hard for two sessions on lower oil, a falling dollar and shrinking rate-hike odds. All three stalled Thursday and the metal is pulling back from the overnight high. The rally was a macro relief trade and macro relief trades need the relief to continue. Friday’s payrolls is the catalyst. Soft hiring and weaker wages keep the dollar under pressure and give silver room to hold above the breakout. Firm wages and solid hiring put the September trade back together and the pullback from $62.91 has further to go.

The breakout above the 50-day moving average failed to hold and that is a concern. Buyers who shifted into buy-the-dip mode after Wednesday’s trend change have to defend the first support area or the rally loses credibility fast. A strong jobs number on top of a failed breakout gives sellers everything they need.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.01 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.06% from the $62.05 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 12.77% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.06 on Thursday, up from 68.46 on Wednesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver breakout above the June to August range is riding on fresh optimism over a potential US-Iran deal, though the move is not yet confirmed.

Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down the technical picture for silver and the geopolitical driver behind the move.

Hilal works through what a sustained hold above former resistance would take to confirm the breakout, and where silver could find support if the US-Iran talks break down. A longer six-month chart adds the other side of the story, where a shooting star pattern and a golden-ratio Fibonacci retracement mark a historic confluence zone.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.

X: @Rh_waves

XAG/USD Current price: $62.00Tepid United States data weighed on an already weak US Dollar.Hopes for a quick solution to the Middle East conflict boosted the mood.XAG/USD trades at a fresh one-month high and aims to extend its recovery.Silver flirted with $63 on Wednesday, its highest in over a month amid renewed market optimism. Investors welcomed news hinting at a soon-to-come deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

XAU/USD traded as high as $62.78 early in the American session, following headlines indicating that the US Treasury lifted counter-terrorism sanctions imposed on three airlines and two aircraft linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard ‌Corps (IRGC) and three airlines.

A Treasury official clarified that the decision was not related to US negotiations with Iran over a possible deal to end hostilities in the Gulf, according to Reuters, yet market players dropped the Greenback on hopes that a deal is closer. The encouraging headline was reinforced by reports suggesting that a deal between Oman and Iran is done, pending Tehran's approval.

The USD was also pressured by local data, as the ADP Employment Change survey showed that the US private sector added measly 44K in July, missing expectations of 70K and below the 98K recorded in June. Also, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 54.1 in July, slightly better than the previous 54, although below the 54.5 expected.

XAG/USD short-term technical outlookBroad USD weakness keeps precious metals near recent highs, with XAU/USD now hovering around the $62 level.  

In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $62.00, extending its recovery above the critical $61 mark, a former relevant low now an immediate relevant support. The pair holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $59.32 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $58.15 and $58.99, respectively, which now underpin the uptrend. The Momentum indicator gains modest upward traction above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around 74, far from signaling exhaustion but instead reflecting the latest advance.

In the daily chart, Silver retains a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 20-day SMA at $58.30, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $69.22 and $71.06, respectively, remain well overhead, signaling that the broader trend is still capped despite the latest rebound. Momentum has improved, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 and the 14-day Momentum indicator turning firmly positive, which suggests buyers currently have the upper hand.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the short-term 20-period SMA at $59.32, followed by the 200-period SMA at $58.99 and the 100-period SMA at $58.15, where any dip would likely attract fresh demand while these levels hold. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $69.22, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.06, a cluster that is likely to act as a tougher supply zone if the rally extends. Once beyond it, however, the path towards $100 will be much clearer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) has found some resistance at the $61.90 area on Wednesday, before pulling back to $61.24 at the moment of writing, but remains above the top of the last four weeks’ range, at the $60.90 area. The white metal appreciates for the second consecutive day, supported by lower US Treasury yields, as soft US data and lower Oil prices have dampened expectations of immediate Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Analysts at MUFG observe that the US Dollar has faced renewed selling since last week’s FOMC meeting, with the “dollar index back below the 100.00-level after hitting a high at 101.64 last week.” They highlight this pullback as evidence that the latest bout of Dollar weakness has extended in the wake of the policy decision.

On Tuesday, US Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings missed expectations, and investors pared back hopes of a quarter-point rate hike in September to 58% from 67% a day before, according to data by the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. The market will be attentive to the US ADP employment report due later on Wednesday and, above all, to the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, to confirm those views.

Technical Analysis: A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern in progress

XAG/USD trades at $61.35 at the time of writing, on track for a nearly 6% rally over the last two days. Price action has breached the neckline of a bullish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern at the mid $59.00 highlighting a constructive near-term bias. Bulls, however, must breach July's top, at $63.12, to confirm a trend shift.

Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are supportive. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 68, flirting with overbought territory, which warns about the possibility of a bearish correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive and continues to edge higher, reinforcing the bullish tone.

On the topside, above session highs at $61.90, the next target is the mentioned July's top, at $63.12. Further up, the H&S' measured target is around $65.65. On the downside, immediate support emerges at session lows, around $59.35, which is also the headline of the H&S formation, ahead of the late-July lows at the $56.65 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.