Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $60.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal consolidates as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday.

The inflation data is expected to have a significant impact of Federal Reserve (Fed’s) interest rate expectations.

Strategists at OCBC note that markets “currently expect the Fed to remain on hold in October before delivering a fully priced 25bp rate hike in December.” They argue that the “key question is whether upcoming CPI data can alter that sequencing by bringing forward expectations for further tightening.”

OCBC added that while consensus forecasts point to “firmer headline inflation due to higher energy costs, core inflation is expected to remain relatively contained.”

In their view, “if core inflation moderates as expected, markets could further trim expectations for additional Fed tightening.” OCBC adds that “it would likely take a core CPI print of 0.4% m/m or higher to materially shift market pricing and strengthen the case for earlier Fed action.”

According to FXs Economic Calendar, the US headline inflation rose to 3.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in August. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is seen arriving at 2.5% YoY, higher than the previous reading of 2.4%.

During the European trade, the 10-year US Treasury Yields are down almost 1% to near 5.19%. Technically, lower US bond yields improve the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD has been in a limited range of $58.50-$62.09 for over weeks, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.85. The metal has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting upside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.94 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent but not extreme selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 20-period EMA at $61.85, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside risks and allow a recovery toward higher levels. On the downside, momentum support is implied by the RSI hovering near 42, as a deeper slide in price would likely push the oscillator closer to oversold territory and could pave the way for a corrective bounce if bears overextend the move.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of mid-$59.00s on Tuesday and sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and currently trades around the $60.50 area, up just over 0.30% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) retreats from its highest level since April 2025 as bulls opt to take some profits off the table, offering some support to XAG/USD. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook and geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday for more cues about the policy path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the white metal.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD retains a bearish near-term bias beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, momentum indicators suggest only modest, consolidative price action rather than a decisive bullish recovery. In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers slightly in positive territory with a flat read. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.39 sits near neutral.

Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibo. level at $61.54 could act as an initial hurdle ahead of the 100-period SMA at $61.98, which forms a nearby cap. The XAG/USD would need to clear this barrier to ease downside pressure and climb further to the 38.2% retracement at $63.38 en route to the 50.0% level at $64.87, ahead of deeper Fibonacci resistance at $66.36, $68.48 and the cycle high zone near $71.17. On the flip side, the primary structural support is the Fibonacci anchor around $58.57, where buyers could attempt to reassert a floor if the current bearish tone extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold and silver finally put a winning week on the board. But the more revealing development is what happened while prices were falling: investors poured billions into gold-backed funds, and China stepped up its purchases of physical gold.

The correction rattled short-term traders. It did not send all the bigger buyers running for the exits.

Last week’s recovery came as Treasury yields eased and oil prices retreated, giving precious metals some breathing room.

A well-received auction of 30-year Treasury bonds helped calm the bond market late in the week.

When investors demand less interest to lend Washington money, gold faces less competition from interest-paying assets. The dollar also pulled back from its highs, although it still finished with its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Those pressures have eased; they have hardly disappeared. The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.24% at the end of the week, and inflation-adjusted yields were still elevated.

September’s Fed meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers expected another rate increase before year-end. Traders now see relatively little chance of an October hike, but postponing another increase is different from abandoning one.

That makes the buying beneath the market especially interesting. The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs attracted about $10 billion in September, even as gold prices declined. Third-quarter inflows reached a record $31 billion, while holdings rose to an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes.

Investors were adding exposure during a correction, suggesting that many still see reasons to own gold beyond the next Fed meeting.

Meanwhile, leveraged futures traders were reducing their bullish positions. These markets attract different investors with different time horizons, so the divergence deserves attention.

Futures selling can push prices lower quickly, while accumulation in physically backed funds can continue underneath that weakness.

China supplied another example. Its central bank added approximately 23 tonnes of gold in September, the largest monthly addition since 2023, extending its reported buying streak to 23 consecutive months. Publicly admitted reserves now stand near 2,410 tonnes.

Silver faces an additional hurdle because it serves both investors and industry. Concerns about economic growth can restrain buying even when gold attracts defensive interest. On the supply side, First Majestic reported third-quarter silver production down 11% from a year earlier, partly because of labour disruptions.

One company’s results do not establish a market-wide shortage, but they illustrate that mine supply cannot simply expand on command when demand improves.

Wednesday’s consumer inflation report is the main test this week, followed by producer prices Thursday and retail sales Friday.

A softer inflation reading could ease expectations of further Fed tightening and help metals extend their recovery.

A hotter reading could revive the same pressure that drove the recent selloff.

Oil and developments around Iran remain wildcards because energy costs can influence those expectations in either direction.

The longer-term issue has not changed. Higher interest rates may temporarily make government debt more attractive, but they also increase the cost of servicing that debt.

Persistent inflation continues to erode savings, and a stronger dollar against other currencies does not mean it buys more goods.

Gold and silver will remain volatile. The continued accumulation by major buyers suggests the reasons for owning them remain very much alive.

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Silver Talking Points:
The slide in silver has continued and the metal is currently down by more than 50% from the January high.
It took 14 years for Silver to take out the $50 level after coming less than 20 cents away from that price back in 2011.
The pent up breakout hit with a fury last year as breakout at $50 led to a move that more than doubled over the next few months. Silver had a full head of steam into the 2026 open and in short order the metal was already testing above the $120/oz level. But what started as a pullback soon turned into a reversal, helped along by the fear of inflation from higher oil prices in March.

Since then it’s been about as non-ideal of a backdrop as possible for the long side of metals, as higher inflation has driven more-hawkish policy, while US Treasury yields have jumped to fresh decade or multi-decade highs along the curve. And while the pullback has been sizable in metals, what is perhaps more notable is how well support has come into play. With gold, it was the fight at the $4k handle. In Silver, it’s been the $60 level so far and perhaps most notable is the fact that the $50 level hasn’t even come into play as support with buyers stepping in ahead of a test there.

Silver Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Silver Structure
Last week saw a single daily close below the $60 level in Silver, and so far that’s produced a bounce, but from the daily chart below, structure is still bearish as that poke below the big figure was a lower-low and that goes with a prior lower-high. This does a couple of things as it helps to provide existing structure but it also shows what bulls need to beat if they want to re-take control, and the prior swing of support-turned-resistance at 62.45 stands out as the level that buyers need to push through to produce a higher-high.

And for higher-low support, the $60 level stands out as a potentially big spot, with 59.23 below that and then the current low of 58.73 marking invalidation for bullish scenarios.

Silver Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Gold: Inflation Data Takes Center Stage as Energy Pressure Eases Gold got a minor tailwind Monday due to a dip in the energy markets and a softening in some inflation fears. This move came after President Trump announced what he called a temporary energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Details of the arrangement remain unclear, and neither Moscow nor Kyiv had fully confirmed it. Lower energy costs should help ease headline inflation and should provide the Federal Reserve some flexiblility to pause their rate hikes.

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. CPI report due out on Wednesday. Market expectations for an October Fed Funds hike have dropped to approximately 17%, while expectations for a December hike have risen to approximately 86%. With the Fed expected to continue hiking through year end, there is still a good chance that there will be some contraction in the non-yielding asset class in the near to intermediate term.

Institutional investor interest in gold remained high. Global gold ETFs added 67 metric tons in September, and brought total holdings to a new record high of 4,256 tonnes. Third quarter global inflows to gold ETFs hit an all time high of $31 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

A forecast cited by Reuters suggests elevated central-bank demand will continue through 2026. Estimates indicate purchases will be around 720 metric tons in 2026, which is about a 15% reduction from 2025, but still above pre-2022 levels.

Silver: Investment Demand Offsets Solar-Sector Weakness Fed policy impacts silver prices, but unlike gold, silver has an active industrial demand component. The Silver Institute expects a sixth successive structural deficit in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of 46.3 million ounces.

Industrial demand for silver in 2026 is expected to drop to 639.6 million ounces due to the continued substitution of silver in Photovoltaic manufacturing. AI Infrastructure and the Automotive and Power Electronics sectors will help absorb some of the silver demand.

Also, bar and coin demand for silver is expected to increase by 18%, indicating a return by investors into the silver markets.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Rejected Below $4,227 as $4,175 Support Comes Into Focus

Gold – Chart Gold is sitting at around $4,185.32 on the 2-hour chart and recently failed to break above the $4,200 region. Gold is still under the descending trendline and the longer term moving average. The recent candles are showing a loss of momentum after the bounce from the $4,103 region.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts I am looking for gold to bounce from the $4,175.03 region, but if it does break below this region, I expect further downside to the $4,141.86 region and possibly $4,103.24 and $4,067.42. On the other hand, if we do see a move above the $4,226.82 region, I expect further upside to the $4,271.57 and $4,311.17 regions.

RSI has moved away from overbought region and is now in the middle of the range. I believe that gold is still in a bearish state as long as it is below $4,226.82 and the descending trendline. If gold does break above this region, it would change the bias to bullish. If gold breaks below the $4,175.03 region, this would open up further downside toward the $4,141.86 region.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Rejected at Trendline as $59.96 Support Returns to Focus

Silver – Chart Silver has risen to $60.88 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing up from $58.74, but stalled against the falling trendline. I like to sell here because Silver is also still below the larger moving average structure and trendline, which keeps the bigger picture still in a downtrend.

$59.96 is the first support area I want to watch. A clear move below that would bring $58.74 into play and support below that would be $57.64. $61.72 remains the first major resistance area, with $63.06 and $65.09 becoming more relevant resistance areas if we see a strong move by the bulls to breakout.

RSI is moving back toward its average after the recent move higher and tells us momentum is potentially moving back toward the mean. I like to sell in this area. I will look to change my bias if silver moves and closes above $61.72. If silver moves below $59.96, that would further validate a move toward $58.74 next.

Silver continues to fight interest rates as they continue to be sticky. Ultimately, this is a bond market story.

Silver Technical Analysis

Weekly chart of Silver Futures (SI1!) on TradingView with price at 60.720 testing the 55.000–60.000 demand zone. The silver market has seen quite a bit of sideways action during the course of the week, as the $60 level continues to be a bit of a support level. The support level is more or less the top of a demand zone that extends all the way down to the $55 level, an area that we can see on the weekly chart that caused the latest bounce.

The problem, though, technically speaking, is that each rally is a little lower as far as the peak is concerned. We will have to wait and see how that plays out. As things stand at the moment, it is all about interest rates.

Interest Rates Did Drift a Little Lower This Week Interest rates did drift a little lower this week. They were at 5.35% on the 10-year yield in America. As I record the video, we are at 5.231%, providing a little bit of relief. We need to see some type of continuation of this to give silver a real shot to go to the upside.

If we continue to grind lower from here, underneath the $55 level would be a very negative turn of events. That being said, I think we are in an area that will be very choppy and very noisy.

With interest rates rallying due to energy, that is our biggest problem. Non-yielding assets do not do well with high rates most of the time. Unfortunately, rates are being driven by energy supply concerns, something that flares up every once in a while due to comments in the marketplace and on the wires.

With the situation in the Middle East still going on, that provides a little bit of a headwind. Right now, though, we are sitting on pretty significant demand.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecastsIf you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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Yesterday, I wrote: “Silver follows stocks more closely than gold does, and the reason is industry.”

On Thursday, the link worked to the downside: the Nasdaq fell 1.25 percent, and silver fell while gold rose. Today, it works to the upside: stock futures and copper are higher, and silver is rising faster than gold. I also wrote that silver “amplifies gold’s moves in both directions,” and today it’s repeating Thursday’s move in the other direction.

In my view, silver’s outperformance today says more about stocks and copper than about the precious metals. It’s the industrial half of silver reacting to a better morning for risk assets.

Gold: A Bounce With Clear Drivers On Thursday, oil rose 3.3 percent, but the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.23 percent after a well-received 30-year bond auction, and gold rose $16.30. That’s a modest gain for a day with lower yields and a war headline in the morning.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts The USD Index is little changed this morning, pausing near its highest levels since April 2025. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said another hike is needed to return inflation to 2 percent, and markets price a 17 percent chance of a hike on October 28 and an 83 percent chance by December.

The Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday at 5.618 percent, the highest yield at a 30-year auction since August 2000, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, above the 2.41 average of the previous six auctions. After Wednesday’s 10-year auction at 5.300 percent, that’s two days in a row of investors lining up for yields that gold doesn’t pay, and the lower yields that followed are part of today’s bounce.

Technically, since the consolidation is taking place above the previous 2026 highs, the breakout is fully verified, and the breather’s implications are bullish. The USD Index is simply getting ready for another powerful wave up.

If we are to view the current consolidation as a flag pattern, then the move that follows it is likely to be similar to the one that preceded it. The preceding rally took the USDX from about 99 to about 102, so a repeat of that could take the USDX to about 105 – that would be quite an event for the precious metals market – a very bearish one.

Where This Leaves Us Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the midterms, oil pulled back, the dollar paused, and gold and silver bounced, with silver outpacing gold as stocks and copper rose. The S&P 500 closed below its August high on Thursday, which invalidated Tuesday’s breakout, and gold remains below the highs of its verification rebound.

Today’s bounce is yesterday’s decline in reverse, driven by the same links. The trend didn’t reverse with it.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday as the US dollar dropped to 102 and Treasury yields eased. Gold gained over 0.9% to around $4,175 an ounce while silver climbed over 1% to $60. A soft US dollar makes both metals cheaper for overseas buyers.

However, the market still expects the 82% chance of a rate hike by the Fed in December. This keeps the recovery in gold and silver vulnerable to fresh inflation concerns.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that further hikes in interest rates would be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. He left the October decision open. His comments suggest that the pause in the interest rates in October would not remove the risk of further tightening.

Meanwhile, President Trump described the talks with Iran as productive and ruled out US attacks before the elections in November. In my view, the drop in tensions between the US and Iran could ease energy inflation and reduce pressure for higher rates. But they could also weaken demand for gold as a safe haven and leave the outlook mixed in the near term.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,330 Breakout Could Target $4,530 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been trading within a triangle pattern in 2026. The price formed a low at $4,066 on October 7, 2026, and initiated a rebound toward the $4,175 area.

The price must break at least the $4,330 level to open the way for a rally towards the $4,530 area. A break above $4,530 will likely confirm a breakout and push gold prices towards the $5,000 area. As long as the gold price remains between $4,000 and $4,500, the possibility of consolidation remains high.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong consolidation between $4,100 and $4,300. A break of either of these levels will likely define the next move in the gold market. However, if the price remains below $4,300, the formation of bearish price patterns may limit the rallies in the gold market.

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Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

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Silver Price Forecast: $65 Breakout Could Put $72 in View The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation in the short term within the triangle pattern. The support of the triangle lies between $55 and $56, while the resistance remains at the $65 area. A break above $65 will likely open the way for a rally towards the 200-day SMA at the $72 level.

A break above $72 is required to open the way for a strong rally in the silver market. However, a break below $55 will likely push the price towards $50.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation within the wedge pattern. The immediate resistance remains at $62. A break above $62 will likely open the way for a rally towards the $72 area. The short-term price action shows that a break below $55 will likely open the way for a drop towards the $50 area.

What to Watch Next Traders will watch the US dollar, Treasury yields and fresh comments by the Fed for the next move in gold and silver prices. A further drop in the dollar and yields could support a recovery in both metals. But renewed concerns about inflation may strengthen the expectations for another rate hike.

The developments in the relationship between the US and Iran may shift the oil prices and demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold needs to break above $4,330 to target $4,530. Silver must clear $65 to bring $72 into view. On the other hand, the key support for gold remains at $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could trigger a drop towards $50.

The silver market finds itself on the back foot early on Thursday, as we are looking at rates continuing to climb overall. With the negative correlation in effect, the drop in price isn’t a surprise.

Silver Technical Analysis

Daily chart of Silver Futures (SI1!) on TradingView with price at 59.045 near the 55.000–60.000 support zone. The silver market has been a bit negative in the early part of the trading session on Thursday, and we are breaking below the $60 level. This is the first sign of potential problems in this asset.

It is interesting to think that traders will continue to see this play out in the sense that rising interest rates in the United States continue to climb while pricing pressure in silver continues to drop. Keep in mind, this is a market that is very highly sensitive to interest rates and, by extension, the U.S. dollar.

Demand Zone Being Tested at the Moment Between $60 and $55 levels, there is a massive amount of demand based on technical analysis. Silver has a massive amount of demand attached to it, but this is where I am watching for some type of bounce. We will see if that holds. Quite frankly, we need rates to drop to make that more likely than not.

Rates are rising for a whole plethora of things, not the least of which would be oil, which took off today on renewed Middle East fears. So it all connects from the Persian Gulf into the bond markets and now into the silver pits.

I am bullish on silver long term, but I need to see some life in this market before I start buying it. I certainly do not want to short into a major demand zone. This area is worth watching at the moment, but trading it remains a bit difficult without a little help from the bond markets.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading sharply lower Wednesday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up.

The first resistance is the short-term retracement zone at $61.04 to $62.98. Silver failed inside the lower half of this area early Wednesday. Taking out $62.09 would put the upper boundary at $62.98 in play, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.21.

The break below $59.69 leaves the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 as the next downside targets. The long-term value area remains $60.835 to $46.48.

What to Watch The 10-year auction and the Fed minutes are what silver has to get through Wednesday. The dollar is back near its high and the 10-year is back near its 2002 peak, so sellers aren’t waiting on a new reason.

My read is the auction matters more than the minutes for silver today. Minutes look backward.

The auction shows in real time what it costs to clear a 10-year sale with yields already at 2002 levels. That’s the price silver has been trading against since the end of July. Oil running hot doesn’t make that sale any easier. The dollar has a short walk back to Monday’s high. Silver’s been the weaker metal Wednesday, and it goes into the afternoon without a single piece of the financial trade on its side.

Spot silver lost $60.835 early Wednesday, then took out Friday’s $59.69 low on the way to $58.99. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down, silver remains below the midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom underneath is $56.56, with the minor top at $62.09 well overhead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices edge lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday. Gold trades near $4,150 an ounce while silver consolidates around $60.90. The correction in the US dollar on Tuesday supported the recovery in metals but traders remain cautious ahead of the September meeting minutes later today.

The market now expects 20.5% chance of a rate hike in October. But the probability of a December increase remains much higher. The drop in expectations for a rate hike in October supports the metal, but further rate hikes could still limit demand for both metals.

Oil prices also rebounded on Wednesday, with Brent oil rising over $104 a barrel. A developing storm threatens oil facilities in the US Gulf, while renewed attacks in the Middle East keep traders concerned about supply. The high energy prices could add to inflation and strengthen the case for further tightening.

Traders will watch the Fed minutes for clues about how officials weigh these risks. In my view, gold and silver remain vulnerable if the rise in oil prices revives the expectations for higher interest rates.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,100 Support at Risk The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating at the edge of the triangle and remains under bearish pressure. A break below $4,100 will likely open the way for a quick drop towards the $4,000 area.

But a recovery above $4,300 is required to initiate a rebound towards the 200-day SMA at $4,500. The resistance of the triangle now intersects with the 200-day SMA at $4,530. A break above this level will likely open the way for a strong rally towards the $5,000 region. The RSI remains below the midline and continues to drop, which suggests bearish pressure in the short term.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows negative price action below $4,300. The price is now consolidating around $4,100. A break below this level will likely trigger a strong drop towards the $4,000 area. The RSI on the 4-hour chart also remains below the midline, which suggests negative price action in the short term.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $60 Could Expose $55 The daily chart for spot silver also shows a negative price structure below the $72 area. The price failed multiple times in August to break above $68. The RSI remains below the midline, which increases the likelihood of further downside.

A recovery above $64 is required to initiate a rally towards the $72 area. However, the strong US dollar and positive momentum in Treasury yields suggest negative price action in the short term.

A break below $60 will likely push spot silver prices towards the $55 area, but a recovery above $64 is required to push the prices back to $72.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows consolidation between $60 and $62.60 in the short term. However, the development of bearish price action below $72 increases the possibility of a breakdown below $60. A break below $60 will open the way for a further drop towards the $55 area.

What to Watch Next for Gold and Silver Traders will watch the Fed minutes for clues about further rate hikes. A strong US dollar could pressure the metals while the increase in oil prices may keep inflation concerns alive. The key support level for gold remains at $4,100. A break below this level could bring $4,000 into view, but a recovery above $4,300 would improve the outlook.

Silver faces a similar test at $60. A break below this level may open the way toward $55. Buyers need to push silver above $64 to support a rebound towards $72. Until both metals regain these resistance levels, the risk of another drop is high.

Read more: Gold and Silver Rebound Faces Risk of a Deeper Drop

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading higher on Tuesday after holding above the long-term 50% level at $60.835. This is the key decision area on the daily chart. Traders are straddling the midpoint after Friday’s break below it and today’s recovery back above it.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up. A move through Friday’s low at $59.69 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up and show that buyers are doing more than defending the midpoint.

The first upside area is the short-term retracement zone at $61.04 to $62.98. Silver is trading inside the lower half of this area. Taking out $62.09 would put the upper level at $62.98 in play, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.17.

Failure to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835 would expose $59.69. Below it, the next swing-bottom support comes in at $56.56 and $54.78.

What to Watch Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the next read for a silver market that’s been trading off the U.S. Dollar Index and long-term Treasury yields. Both dipped Tuesday and that was enough to lift spot silver back over the midpoint. Neither one has turned yet.

Spot silver bottomed at $60.28, got back above $60.835 and ran up to $61.71 late Tuesday, within 40 cents of $62.09. The bias is still to the downside while the main trend is down and spot silver remains below the 50-day moving average. The move back above the midpoint gives shorts a reason to be careful.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold: Fed Pause Hopes Collide With a Renewed Bond-Market Selloff The big picture backdrop for gold is split. U.S. September employment data showed just 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs created, and other months’ data was revised down. The data has significantly lowered expectations of another FOMC rate increase in October. Currently, the markets expect just a 23% chance of a rate hike in October, while November and December rate hikes remain priced in at a slightly higher level.

The relief is being offset by selling in the bond market. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs. Along with persistent inflation, heavier government borrowing is putting upward pressure on yields. Add to that rising U.S. fiscal deficits and a stronger dollar, and you have even more inflation headwinds. The U.S. services sector, like the U.S. manufacturing sector, also shows strong demand, and elevated input costs. Long-lasting elevated costs and strong demand point to inflation remaining high and sticky for an extended period.

Despite the commodity rout, gold’s structural demand remains firm. Speakers at this week’s London Bullion Market Association conference reflected on gold’s role as a reserve diversifier due to geopolitical fragmentation and rising sovereign debt. As such, forecasts for central bank purchases remain firm at around 720 tonnes by 2026.

Silver: High Investment Demand More Than Offsets Softer Solar Consumption Similar to gold, the USD and interest rate dynamics impact silver. The Silver Institute expects a sixth consecutive annual silver market deficit for 2026, even with a projected 1.5% increase in global silver supply. Physical investment for silver is expected to increase 20% to about 227 million ounces in 2026.

While consumption by solar manufacturers is expected to decline, there are several other industry sectors that are expected to increase silver consumption for 2026, including AI infrastructure and data centers, the automotive industry and electrical grid construction. In addition, the latest U.S. power sector data for 2022 reflect continued growth in the U.S. solar industry. In addition, data center electricity consumption is increasing as well.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Tests $4,112 Support as $4,160 Caps the Recovery

Gold – Chart Gold is trading near $4,133 on the 4-hour chart. Currently price remains pinned close to the $4,112 support area after a failed recovery above $4,160. The broader structure is bearish as the price of gold is still under both of the moving averages and the descending trendline. The recent bounces in gold are also still producing lower highs.

The first area of support that I am watching is $4,112. A breakdown through $4,112 would bring about $4,073 and $4,030 in to play. Looking to the upside, $4,160 and $4,190 offer some resistance. Further resistance comes in at $4,214 and $4,238.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecastsRSI is in the lower half of its range which shows that momentum is still weak but not deeply oversold. Looking at the above, I am still inclined to look for lower prices, especially if $4,160 and $4,190 continue to provide resistance and the descending trendline continues to slop down. $4,214 would have to be taken out to give reason to change view to the upside, and a break below $4,112 would confirm lower prices toward $4,073.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Holds $59.96 as $61.72 Remains the Key Breakout Level

Silver – Chart Silver (XAG/USD) is currently traded at $60.73. Last week, price tried consolidating above the $59.96 support area. Overall, the structure of the price action is still leaning towards the sellers in the 4-hour time frame, despite the recent sideways price move.

As long as Silver remains below the descending trendline and both moving averages, as well as $61.72, expect selling opportunities.

With the 4-hour time frame, the nearest resistance is at $61.72. The next supports below the 4-hour trend line is at $59.96, $58.94 and $57.64 respectively.

The RSI is at 50 indicating a neutral consolidation, neither favoring buyers nor sellers.

I will maintain my bearish bias while Silver is below the $61.72 and the trendline. A break above $63.06 will shift my focus to $65.09 and a break below $59.96 will validate a shift to the next support at $58.94.

Interest Rates in the United States Remain Elevated Based on what we’ve seen recently, silver, of course, is very sensitive to interest rates. That’s one of the biggest fights here. Interest rates in the United States remain elevated, and therefore silver is very difficult to get overly aggressive with.

Longer term, the silver market certainly seems to have a line of interest in it, as the electrification of the global economy continues to be a priority and demand for silver is strong in comparison to the relatively weak output.

That being said, we still have a situation where interest rates are providing that downward pressure. So, it’s not a one-and-done type of straight shot up in the air like we saw about a year and a half ago.

All things being equal, I do think eventually the silver market gets bullish from a longer-term standpoint. I own physical silver and would own more, but in a leveraged market like the silver futures market or even CFD markets, we have to be a little bit more nimble than that.

This could be thought of as a buying opportunity. That being said, this market will have to be very responsive to the bond market, and therefore we have to be very cautious with elevated rates causing that downward pressure. Conversely, if rates fall apart here, that could be the tailwind that silver desperately needs.

TL;DR: Dollar Index is heading towards the 102.77–103.00 resistance zone while Silver stabilizes near 60 after falling from 71.16—the two markets are trading the same macro bet from opposite sides, and September’s NFP report, including the wage component, could resolve both in the same session.

Why This Matters Dollar and Silver are trading the same macro theme from opposite directions, which means today’s jobs report carries more than its usual weight: it is a single catalyst that can confirm or break two technical setups at once. The headline payroll number matters less than it usually does here—wages and the broader composition of the report may do more to decide whether the higher-yield, stronger-Dollar regime extends or finally interrupts.

Why Wages May Matter More Than the Payroll Headline September payrolls are expected to slow sharply from 162K to around 90K, while unemployment is seen unchanged at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y, with the annual pace edging up from 3.1%.

That makes the composition of the report unusually important.

The Fed enters NFP with conflicting inflation signals. Softer August PCE data sharply reduced expectations for another hike in October, while New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also left October open even as he maintained that further hikes will probably be needed.

But Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing report complicated that picture. Prices Paid surged from 71.1 to 77.9, while New Orders strengthened and Employment rose further into expansion. The result was not a clean slowdown signal, but an economy still showing demand resilience while input-cost pressure accelerated.

That makes wages particularly important.

A strong payroll headline would confirm that labor demand remains resilient. A hot wage print would go further, adding a domestic inflation signal to the cost pressure already visible in ISM and making it harder for policymakers to treat recent inflation pressures as primarily supply-driven.

Payroll revisions are another reason not to overweight the first headline. Recent estimates have moved materially between releases, including July’s swing from an initially reported decline to subsequent positive growth.

The cleaner question is therefore not simply whether payrolls beat 90K.

It is whether jobs, unemployment and wages collectively show an economy still generating enough demand pressure to justify earlier or more aggressive tightening.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Dollar Index and Silver Dollar Index: 102.77 Is the Breakout Test

Dollar Index has already cleared one important obstacle.

The rally from 98.599 pushed through the previous 101.800 high this week and is now pressing toward a technically significant 102.77–103.00 zone.

The first level comes from the 100% projection of the 97.625 to 101.800 advance measured from 98.599, which produces a target at 102.774. That projection also converges with the upper boundary of the rising daily channel, making the area a more substantial resistance zone than the 103 round number alone.

Momentum remains supportive but stretched.

Daily RSI is around 73.5, while MACD continues to accelerate above zero. On the 4H chart, RSI is close to 70 and price remains well above the 55 EMA around 101.15.

The setup therefore argues that Dollar still has upside momentum, but a clean extension through 102.77–103.00 probably requires fresh fundamental confirmation.

A strong NFP accompanied by hot wages would provide exactly that.

If the data materially rebuild expectations for an October Fed move, a sustained break above 102.77 would open the way for the broader Dollar advance to extend.

A report that merely keeps a December hike as the central scenario may not be sufficient. In that case, DXY could stall around the projection and channel ceiling without producing a genuine bearish reversal.

The key support is 101.026.

As long as that level holds, rejection from 102–103 would initially signal consolidation within the broader uptrend rather than completion of the rally.

Silver: 58.68–60 Is the Line to Defend

Silver is approaching the other side of the same macro trade.

The decline from 71.16 extended to 59.93 before stabilizing, leaving price around the psychological 60 level and just above the lower portion of its falling channel.

The more important technical support lies around 58.68.

That level is the 100% projection of the decline from 71.16 to 62.30, measured from the subsequent 67.54 rebound. Together with the channel floor, it creates a broader 58.68–60.00 support zone.

For now, the decline can still be interpreted as corrective.

Silver remains above 58.68 and within the descending channel rather than accelerating decisively through its lower boundary. But buyers have yet to demonstrate that the correction is complete.

The first meaningful bullish signal would be a sustained break back above 62.30, which sits close to the 4H 55 EMA around 62.42.

Until then, stabilization around 60 remains just that — stabilization.

A decisive break below 58.68 would materially weaken the corrective interpretation and raise the probability that the fall from 71.16 is developing into a more impulsive bearish leg.

That would expose the prior 54.77 low, followed by the 53.20 area represented by the 161.8% projection of the same decline.

One NFP, Two Confirmation Signals The cleanest scenario is a strong payroll report combined with hot wages.

That would challenge the recent reduction in October hike expectations and strengthen the argument that resilient demand is reinforcing already elevated inflation pressure.

For Dollar Index, that would provide the catalyst needed to challenge 102.77–103.00 and potentially establish a fresh breakout.

For Silver, the same repricing would increase pressure on 58.68–60.00. A decisive break below 58.68 would shift attention toward 54.77 and potentially 53.20.

The softer scenario is an in-line or weak payroll headline with wages around expectations.

That would do little to restore urgency around October. DXY could struggle to sustain a move through 102.77 while remaining structurally supported above 101.026, while Silver could continue defending the 58.68–60 zone and preserve the corrective interpretation.

The most interesting mixed outcome would be weak payroll growth but unexpectedly strong wages.

That combination would show cooling employment creation without delivering the inflation relief the Fed is looking for. Given how explicitly policymakers have focused on persistent inflation, wages could carry more weight than the headline payroll number in determining the immediate rates reaction.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters After the Release Because Dollar and Silver are trading the same macro theme from opposite directions, the strongest NFP signal would come from both charts resolving together.

A DXY break above 102.77 accompanied by Silver falling through 58.68 would provide powerful cross-asset confirmation that markets are repricing a firmer Fed path and extending the existing Dollar-up, Silver-down trade.

The inverse would also be significant.

A rejection of 102.77 followed by a DXY break back below 101.026, combined with Silver reclaiming 62.30, would suggest the current macro trade is losing momentum on both sides.

Divergence would be informative too.

If Dollar clears 102.77 while Silver continues defending 58.68, Silver-specific support would appear to be offsetting the macro pressure. If Silver breaks support while DXY fails to extend, the metal’s own bearish technical structure may be doing more of the work.

Both Charts Get Their Answer on the Same Day Unlike setups that need several releases to develop, Dollar and Silver should receive their primary catalyst in the same session.

The immediate levels are straightforward.

For Dollar Index, the question is whether 102.774 becomes a breakout point or a rejection zone, with 101.026 determining whether any pullback remains corrective.

For Silver, the test is whether 60 and 58.68 continue to hold, followed by whether buyers can reclaim 62.30.

NFP may therefore resolve more than the next Fed meeting probability.

It can determine whether the macro trade that has carried Dollar toward 103 and Silver toward 60 still has another leg to run.

Key Takeaways Dollar Index is testing 102.77–103.00 resistance while Silver stabilizes near 60 after falling from 71.16—the same macro trade viewed from opposite sides. September NFP is expected to slow sharply to ~90K, but wage growth (forecast 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) may matter more than the headline given hot ISM Prices Paid data. A strong payroll-plus-hot-wages outcome would favor a DXY breakout above 102.77 and a Silver break below 58.68 toward 54.77 and 53.20. A weak or in-line report would likely keep DXY capped below 102.77 (above 101.026 support) and Silver defending the 58.68–60.00 zone. The strongest confirmation would come from both charts moving together—DXY above 102.77 with Silver below 58.68—while divergence between the two would point to asset-specific forces overriding the macro trade.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Daily candlestick chart of Silver showing consolidation near the 61.530 level below the 50-day EMA. The silver market has bounced slightly after initially falling earlier this week. At this point in time, though, we are paying attention to the same thing, and that, of course, is going to be interest rates. Interest rates continue to rise in the United States. That is not good for silver, and therefore we see this pressure.

The jobs number will be paramount on Friday. Between now and then, it would make a bit of sense to go sideways and chop. I just don’t see a situation where the whole thing changes quickly, and in this environment, it’s likely that we will see a lot of back and forth, a lot of selling of the initial rally that shows signs of exhaustion, just as we will have buyers of dips as well.

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The U.S. Dollar Index hit 101.47 Wednesday after reaching 101.61 Tuesday. It slipped toward 101.23 after PCE. The broader move is still in place, with the index holding above the 100.56 breakout level. Its 50-day moving average is down near 99.91.

Dollar buyers are taking some profit after a fast run higher. They haven’t left the building. Silver’s rebounds keep running into a currency market that still favors the greenback, and the greenback is still trying to print new highs.

Friday’s Jobs Report Gets the Last Word on October ADP came in stronger than expected. Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September against a 68,000 estimate. That’s not enough to settle the Fed debate, however, the hawks walk into Friday with an argument they didn’t have Tuesday.

PCE moved the October debate. The bigger question is untouched, which is whether inflation and hiring are both cooling enough for the Fed to pause. ADP didn’t help that case.

What to Watch Friday’s jobs report is the next catalyst. PCE cut October hike odds, but it did not pull the 10-Year meaningfully away from its high. Silver needs payrolls to finish the rate-relief trade.

A weaker jobs number could pressure Treasury yields and bring buyers back through $61.04. A firm report would keep the rate trade intact and leave Tuesday’s $60.30 low exposed.

The main trend remains down on the daily swing chart. Silver failed at $61.73 after PCE and was back on the 50% retracement at $60.84 by 14:24 GMT. Buyers defended this area Tuesday; a break through $60.30 would show they could not do it twice.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

I don’t necessarily look at this as a market that I’m wanting to get overly aggressive with, but I do recognize that there’s probably more downward pressure than up. Longer term, I still like silver. The reality is that silver does not have enough supply in any given year to really wipe out demand, and that’s only going to get worse with AI, the electrification of the economy, etc.

So, with all of that being said, this is a market that I think we have to look at through the prism of whether or not the $60 level ends up being a massive floor. If we break above the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, then it could open up a move to $70, but I don’t see that being a situation we run into very quickly.

I think short-term traders probably look at this as a fade-the-rally market. This market is one that I think has a long way to go to the upside, but we have a lot of work to do to see the longer-term possibilities play out over time.

Two conversions put the installation numbers in silver terms, with the assumptions stated. The first is the American quarter. Its 11.4 gigawatts embed roughly 2.5 Moz of silver at this year’s silver content per gigawatt. That content, about 6.7 tonnes per gigawatt, is a working figure rather than a published one. It is the survey’s 151 Moz forecast divided by an assumed 700 gigawatts of cell production this year. The survey itself expects mainstream cells to fall below 5 milligrams per watt by 2027, which is the same as 5 tonnes per gigawatt. Silver Rising used a range that started at 12 tonnes per gigawatt.

At that rate the quarter embeds about 4.4 Moz. Either way, that metal was consumed when the cells were made, mostly in Asia and mostly in earlier quarters. A strong installation quarter confirms demand that has already happened rather than adding new demand. The second is China’s fleet of 1,286 gigawatts. It was built when panels carried far more silver than today, at 10 to 15 tonnes per gigawatt. At those rates the fleet embeds roughly 410 to 620 Moz. That silver is a stock, sealed into panels for twenty-five years or more. It is the physical basis of the one solar claim that survives this year unchanged: silver already installed does not come back.

What This Means to Silver Investors For this year’s balance, the numbers are worse than the growth story promised, and it is better to say so plainly. The volume argument that opened the solar chapter of Silver Rising is two years stale. Panels are going up at close to last year’s pace worldwide. BloombergNEF’s global estimate for 2026 is 649 gigawatts, barely below 2025’s 655. Each of those panels carries less silver than the one before. On the survey’s own forecast, solar silver demand falls 19% this year. On the lowest published estimate it falls by around 30%. A deficit that halves is a different market from a deficit that widens. The assumption that solar demand grows every year no longer holds.

Two things survive, and they are the two a long-term holder needs. The first is that the market stays short even on the lowest published estimate. The shortfall shrinks to roughly 21.9 Moz from 46.3 Moz. It is still a shortfall, and it runs into the sixth consecutive year of deficit on the figures from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The longer-term case for silver rests on that shortfall persisting, not on any single demand line growing.

The second is the stock argument. Every gigawatt installed this year locks its silver away for a quarter of a century. The fleet already built holds hundreds of millions of ounces, and none of it returns to the market within any holder’s investment horizon. Thrifting, the cutting of silver per cell, slows the rate at which new silver is locked away. It does not release any of the silver already locked. The survey notes that recycling from old panels remains small in volume.

The cutting has further to run, and the survey says so. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute expect silver per cell to fall by a further 15% to 20% this year. The full replacement of silver with copper is a different matter. Copper electroplating, which lays copper onto the cell in place of silver paste, is in pilot production. The survey says yield and reliability problems mean mass production of pure copper pastes is unlikely this year.

Its own view is that silver will remain essential to the industry, with a defensible place in high-reliability cells. So the substitution story has a direction and no date. The checkpoint that does have a date is the Metals Focus interim update in November. It will show whether the survey’s 151 Moz or J.P. Morgan’s lower figure was closer, and the answer will be graded in print either way.

Solar demand is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. If you’ve at least considered investing in silver, I strongly encourage you to sign up, because it takes just $1 to get both. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book for $1 today.

Thank you.

The Silver Engineer

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog, we’ll take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts for Silver (XAGUSD) published in the members’ area of our website. As our members know, Silver has rallied from our buying zone as expected. The commodity may still be trading within the cycle that started from the 62.27 low. The recent pullback is a textbook example of an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. In the analysis below, we’ll break down the pattern and show how we forecasted the path ahead.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A  or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and  ideal retracements.

If  you are new to Elliott Wave we recommend you to check out our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page and download our Free Elliott Wave Book.

SILVER Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 09.22.2026 Silver is forming a 3-wave pullback from the recent highs. At the moment, the structure still looks incomplete. So far, we can count five waves down from the peak, suggesting that the pullback is forming an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. Based on the current structure, we expect another 5-wave leg lower to complete the pullback. As our members know, we derive the buying zone by measuring the Equal Legs area with the Fibonacci Extension tool.

While price remains below the latest short-term high, marked as ((b)) black, the ideal target area comes at 65.15–64.13. Once Silver reaches this zone, we expect buyers to step in and take control. From there, we look for a strong bounce in at least three waves, with the potential for the rally to eventually reach new highs.

90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%?  Put your skills to the test with this advanced Elliott Wave challenge.

Reminder : Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time. You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page

SILVER Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 09.22.2026 The commodity made the decline as expected. Price reached our target area at 65.15–64.13, the buying zone, and has already found support there. From this zone, we expect buyers to step in and push Silver higher, with the potential for a further rally toward new highs.

SILVER Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 09.23.2026 The price rallied as expected and made a new short-term high, confirming a bullish structure within the cycle from the 62.3 low. We now expect a 3-wave pullback to develop. The key level to watch is the B red low at 64.58. As long as this pivot holds, further upside can be seen in the C red leg.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the outlook may have changed in the meantime. Our member Chat Rooms are open 24 hours a day, Monday through Friday, on trading days, providing ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members can ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time during trading days.

Elliott Wave Forecasthttps://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) The main trend is down on the daily swing chart. A trade through $68.33 will change the main trend to up. A move through $62.31 will reaffirm the downtrend.

Silver is trading below the $65.32 minor pivot. Resistance above sits at $65.32, the $66.75 to $67.79 zone, $67.34, and $68.33.

On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $63.26. Below that, the $62.98 to $61.04 zone with the $62.31 main bottom inside it. Below the zone, $60.84.

Friday’s Rally Hit the Zone and Could Not Get Through Silver bounced off the September low area last week and ran for two sessions. The move carried into the $66.75 to $67.79 retracement zone and stopped at $67.34. Inside the zone, not through it. Tuesday’s break through Friday’s low confirmed the rally was finished before sellers had to press for it.

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See all Silver forecasts The $67.34 high joins the chart as the latest lower top. The previous one was $68.33. The one before that was $71.18 in August. Buyers are getting less room on every rally attempt. Each one starts lower, runs into resistance sooner and fails faster than the last. Two days was all the bulls got and Tuesday gave the whole thing back before New York opened.

That progression is what makes the break under $65.32 feel different from a routine pullback. Silver is not consolidating after a strong move. It is failing at successively lower levels and the time between failures is getting shorter. The two-day rally last week lasted half as long as the move that peaked at $68.33 earlier in the month.

Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.970%, up about 1.9 basis points Tuesday. Last week’s pullback from the 5.041% high found a floor at 4.922%. That is a yield that tested above 5%, backed off less than 12 basis points and started heading higher again. The 4.809% breakout level held easily. The 50-day moving average at 4.735% is well below.

The Fed raised 25 basis points last week to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled at least one more increase this year. Rate markets pushed October hike odds higher after the decision. The 10-year sitting near 4.97% after a hike with more on the table says the rate trade is not letting go. Silver rallied for two sessions while the yield was pulling back from 5.041%. The pullback lasted about as long as silver’s rally did. Both are over.

The resistance above is 5.021%. A sustained move through that level puts the 5.041% high back in play. The rate pressure on silver is not easing. It is settling in near the highs and waiting for the next push.

What to Watch The rate picture does not change until the data changes it. The dollar is pressing toward 101.640. The 10-year is working back toward 5.041% after holding above 4.922%. Until something shows up in the inflation data that gives the doves a case, both keep running against silver.

Sellers have the momentum below $65.32. The 50-day at $63.26 held during the September decline. Whether it holds again depends on the dollar. If the DXY extends toward 101.640, the average gets tested. Below it, the $62.31 main bottom is the swing-chart trigger. A break there reaffirms the downtrend and puts $60.84 in play.

Buyers need the pivot back before anything else matters. The $66.75 to $67.79 zone stopped the rally Friday and sellers will be waiting there again. $68.33 turns the trend. The dollar has to fade for buyers to have a shot at reclaiming any of it. Tuesday morning says the dollar is not interested in fading.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver settled higher for a second session on Friday, but off its high. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, the minor trend turned up on Thursday, leading to a change in momentum to the upside. Supporting the upward momentum is the close over the 50-day moving average at $62.97.

A trade through the swing bottom at $62.31 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will turn up on a trade through the September 9 main top at $68.33.

The intermediate range is $54.78 to $71.18. Its retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 is support. The zone, especially the upper or 50% level at $62.98, has been tested several times over the past six sessions, including the new swing bottom at $62.31 on September 16.

Two short-term ranges have formed between $68.33 and $62.31 and between $71.18 and $62.31. They created 50% levels at $65.32 and $66.75, respectively. On Friday, the market surged through both 50% levels to $67.34 before backing down.

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The Dollar Controlled the Morning and Then Lost It

They waited for it to stop getting worse. The dollar’s inability to extend Friday’s early high was all they needed. The bears who were pressing silver below $65.50 in the morning spent the afternoon watching the trade move against them while every macro argument they had was still technically intact.

What to Watch The dollar is the only screen that matters for silver right now. A sustained push above Friday’s 100.564 high puts the pressure back on the metal and tests whether buyers will defend the ground they gained. Another failure to extend the dollar rally and silver has room to build on Friday’s move toward $67.34 and the main top at $68.33.

The bias has shifted to the upside with the minor trend change and silver trading above the 50-day moving average at $62.97. The counter-trend rally is real and it cleared both 50% levels at $65.32 and $66.75 on Friday before pulling back. A sustained hold above $66.75 strengthens the case for a run at $68.33 and that is the level where the main trend changes to up and the entire post-Fed selloff is officially reversed.

On the downside, $65.32 is where the momentum weakens. A break through it opens a correction back to the support cluster at $62.98 to $62.97. That zone has held every test for six sessions. Losing it changes the conversation entirely with $61.04 to $60.83 as the next target and the two-day rally reclassified as short covering that ran out of buyers.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar rallied. The 2-year yield pushed higher. The 10-year moved back toward 5%. XAGUSD dropped from $64.94 to $62.31 in the hours after the announcement. That is a $2.63 range in one session and most of it came on the downside after the statement.

Silver settled at $62.99. Well off the low. The sellers who had the hawkish Fed, the stronger dollar and higher yields behind them could not hold the metal below $63. That failure matters more than the $0.70 lower close.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecastsThe 5% Yield Was Not New Information Silver had already been trading under the threat of a 5% 10-year yield before the Fed ever spoke Wednesday. The metal spent Monday and Tuesday absorbing rising rate expectations, a dollar at two-week highs and yields at 2007 levels. Buyers showed up on every test of the support zone near $63 and defended it.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver is edging higher early Thursday after posting its fourth straight successful test of the 50-day moving average at $62.81. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. For the second time this week, sellers reaffirmed the downtrend with a lower low at $62.31, however, the lack of follow-through pressure may have triggered today’s early short-covering rally.

A trade through $62.31 will once again reaffirm the downtrend. A trade through $68.33 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through the minor top at $64.94 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The intermediate range is $54.78 to $71.18. Its retracement zone is $62.98 to $61.04. This week’s lows have all tested this zone successfully. The 50% level at $62.98 forms a support cluster with the 50-day moving average at $62.81. Thursday’s early low is $62.85.

Additional levels to watch include long-term 50% support at $60.835. On the upside, 50% levels at $65.32 and $66.75 are potential resistance.

What to Watch Warsh answered his question Wednesday. The Fed is still raising rates and still worried about inflation. Now silver has to answer the other one. Can sellers actually break this market with that information? Four tests of the 50-day moving average this week and four failures. A hawkish Fed, a stronger dollar and yields near 5% and the low at $62.31 still held. If buyers keep defending the downside after absorbing all of that, the question stops being whether silver breaks lower and starts being what it would take to knock out the bid entirely.

The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the daily swing chart and this week’s lower lows reaffirming the direction. The bearish case has a credibility problem though. The 50-day moving average at $62.81 and the retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 have stopped every selloff this week including the post-Fed flush to $62.31.

A push through the minor top at $64.94 flips the minor trend to up and puts resistance at $65.32 to $66.75 in play. Overcoming $66.75 gives buyers a clean path toward $68.33 and a trend change. On the downside, a break through $62.31 would finally produce the follow-through sellers have been unable to generate and opens the door to $61.04 and long-term support at $60.835.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

– Silver reversed from support area

– Likely to rise to resistance level 68.45

Silver recently reversed down from the support area between the support level 62.60 (which has been reversing the price from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of wave A from July.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous minor correction B from the end of August.

Given the strength of the support level 62.60, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 68.45.

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Silver is currently correcting the bullish cycle that began at the July 2026 low, potentially resulting in a significant pullback. This raises critical questions for traders: what happens once the correction concludes? Will the metal rally toward the January 2026 high, or is it poised for extended sideways movement or further downside?

Following the record highs in late January 2026, Silver experienced a sharp decline, signaling the onset of a significant bearish cycle. Despite this sell-off, many market participants maintain a bullish outlook, anticipating that the metal will eventually break to new highs in the coming weeks, months, or years. Meanwhile, after completing a 7-swing structure in July 2026, Silver received a major boost as dollar weakness encouraged investors to move into riskier assets.

Following the July 2026 lows, Silver rallied, recovering exactly 23.6% of the decline from the January peak while hitting a three-month high in late August. Furthermore, the commodity completed a clear 5-wave structure. Given the shallow depth of this bounce, market participants are anticipating at least another 5-wave move to the upside from the late August pullback extreme. Our global team of Elliotticians at Elliottwave-Forecast suggests that the bearish cycle initiated by the January high is now complete as a supercycle degree wave (II), signaling the start of a broader recovery. This outlook is further supported by a bearish dollar forecast and anticipated acceleration in both equities and high-beta assets.

Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 5th September 2026 Since the July 2026 low, Silver has completed a 5-wave impulse structure, which we identified as wave ((1)). According to standard Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave advance is typically followed by a 3-wave pullback before the bullish cycle resumes. We shared the corresponding H4 chart with our members on September 5, 2026, to illustrate this expected development.

Wave ((2)) began developing from the peak of wave ((1)). Following the completion of a 5-wave structure for wave (A), we anticipated a 3-wave bounce for wave (B), followed by a 5-wave decline in wave (C) to finalize wave ((2)) before the broader bullish cycle from late July could resume. As the chart illustrates wave C of (B) in progress, we projected one final leg higher followed by a swift sell-off.

Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 10th September 2026 The price has completed wave (B) exactly as anticipated, followed by the expected sell-off for wave (C) of ((2)). Silver is now positioned to extend its decline toward the 60.4–56.4 support zone, where we expect wave ((2)) to conclude before the resumption of the broader bullish trend.

The H4 chart shared on September 6th successfully guided members through the price action seen on September 9th and 10th. This helped them avoid being trapped in premature long positions. With the structure confirming that a significant move was not yet imminent, the question remains: what comes next? We have been tracking these developments closely through our hourly charts, which are updated four times per day for our members. Below is the latest update.

Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 14th September 2026  The latest H1 chart below highlights the sub-waves of wave (C). The price is currently developing within wave 3 of (C), specifically tracking wave ((ii)) of 3 of (C). We will provide a further update early in the Asian session once new market data becomes available.

The upcoming Asia H1 update will determine if Silver moves higher to extend wave 2 or breaks below the wave ((i)) low, which would confirm our current count. Additionally, members can access our daily technical video, which outlines the expected price path heading into the London session. This is part of our 24-hour market analysis service. We provide up-to-date technical insights for Silver and over 77 other instruments, including Forex, Cryptocurrencies, ETFs, Stock Indices, and Commodities.

About Elliott Wave Forecast At www.elliottwave-forecast.com, we update one-hour charts four times daily and four-hour charts once daily for all 78 instruments. We also conduct daily live sessions to guide clients on the right side of the market. Additionally, we have a chat room where moderators answer market-related questions. Experience our service with a 14-day trial for only $0.99. Cancel anytime.

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