Key Takeaways SIGI beat Q2 earnings as stronger underwriting and investment income offset lower premiums written. SIGI improved its combined ratio to 98% and raised its 2026 after-tax net investment income outlook. SIGI repurchased shares and posted its eighth straight quarter of double-digit operating returns. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 operating earnings of $1.95 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.4%. The bottom line increased 48.9% year over year.
Revenues of $1.37 billion rose 4.5% from the year-ago quarter and topped the consensus estimate by 0.7%. Results benefited from stronger investment income and improved underwriting, while lower premiums written reflected continued portfolio actions.
SIGI's Underwriting Results ImproveNet premiums written declined 5% year over year to $1.22 billion due to a 6% decrease in Standard Commercial Lines, an 8% fall in Standard Personal Lines, and a 2% decline in Excess and Surplus Lines. Our estimate was $1.33 billion.
Net premiums earned increased 2.3%. Direct new business fell to $206.1 million from $248.1 million. Renewal pure price increases averaged 6.5%, down from 9.9% in the prior-year quarter.
The combined ratio improved 220 basis points to 98%. Lower catastrophe and non-catastrophe property losses, along with no prior-year casualty reserve development, supported the improvement. Higher current-year casualty loss costs partly offset these benefits.
SIGI's Investment Income Adds SupportAfter-tax net investment income increased 18% year over year to $119.2 million. Net investment income per common share rose 20% to $1.98.
The after-tax yield was 4.4% for fixed-income securities and 4.2% for the overall portfolio. Investment income contributed 13.9 percentage points to annualized return on equity, up from 13 points a year ago.
SIGI's Commercial Lines Performance StrengthensStandard Commercial Lines net premiums written fell 6% year over year to $961.9 million as lower new business weighed on production. Our estimate was $1 billion.
Net premiums earned rose 3% to $962 million, while retention was 81%.
The segment's combined ratio improved 350 basis points to 99.3%. The improvement reflected no prior-year casualty reserve development and lower non-catastrophe property losses, partly offset by higher current-year casualty loss costs.
SIGI's Personal Lines Margin NarrowsStandard Personal Lines net premiums written declined 8% to $101.5 million, while net premiums earned decreased 5% to $97.6 million. Our estimate for net premiums written was $111.4 million. New business fell 36%, renewal pure price increased 8.9% and retention remained at 79%.
The segment's combined ratio deteriorated 390 basis points to 95.5%. Higher non-catastrophe property losses and a higher expense ratio pressured the result, though lower catastrophe losses provided some relief.
SIGI's Excess and Surplus Results Stay ProfitableExcess and Surplus Lines net premiums written decreased 2% year over year to $157.3 million. Our estimate was $174.7 million. Net premiums earned increased 5% to $155.8 million, while average renewal pure price rose 3.4%.
The segment's combined ratio increased 200 basis points to 91.8%. Higher current-year casualty loss costs and non-catastrophe property losses more than offset lower catastrophe losses.
SIGI's Profitability and Capital ImproveAfter-tax underwriting income was $19.3 million against a loss of $1.9 million a year earlier. Non-GAAP operating income climbed 46% to $117.6 million, while net income available to common stockholders increased 52% to $127.1 million.
Operating return on common equity improved 340 basis points year over year to 13.7%. The company marked its eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit operating returns.
Total expenses increased slightly to $1.22 billion from $1.21 billion, reflecting higher other insurance expenses. Our estimate was $1.24 billion.
SIGI's Balance Sheet Gains GroundSelective Insurance ended the quarter with total assets of $15.62 billion, up 3% from year-end 2025. Total investments increased 2% to $11.58 billion, while common stockholders' equity rose 2% to $3.46 billion.
Book value per common share was $58.13, up 3% sequentially, while adjusted book value per share increased 3% to $60.56. During the quarter, the company repurchased $32 million of shares at an average price of $84.72.
Selective Insurance Raises Investment Income OutlookFor 2026, Selective Insurance continues to expect a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5-97.5, including 6 points of catastrophe losses. The outlook assumes no prior-year casualty reserve development.
The company raised its after-tax net investment income guidance to $480 million from $465 million. It continues to project an effective tax rate of 21.5% and now expects weighted average diluted shares of 60.2 million.
Zacks RankSelective Insurance currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other Property and Casualty InsurersChubb Limited (CB - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 core operating earnings of $7.26 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.63 by 9.5%. The bottom line increased 18.2% year over year. Revenues rose 2.7% year over year to $15.77 billion but missed the consensus mark of $15.90 billion by 0.8%.
Stronger P&C underwriting, record investment income, and higher life insurance income supported results. Net premiums earned increased 5.8% to $13.89 billion. P&C underwriting income increased 18.8% year over year to $1.94 billion. The combined ratio improved 180 basis points to 83.8%, reflecting a lower share of premiums consumed by claims and expenses. Our estimate was $1.15 billion.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 core income of $10.04 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.21 by 92.7%. The bottom line climbed 54% year over year. Revenues of $12.09 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.27 billion by 1.5%.
Net investment income rose 14% year over year to $1.07 billion pre-tax ($883 million after tax). The combined ratio improved 670 basis points year over year to 83.6%, reflecting lower catastrophe losses, stronger reserve development and a better underlying combined ratio.
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.27 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.5%. The bottom line increased 21% year over year. W.R. Berkley’s net premiums written were about $3.4 billion, up 2.4% year over year. The figure surpassed our estimate of $3.4 billion.
Operating revenues totaled $ 3.8 billion, up 3.6% year over year. The top line surpassed the consensus estimate by 1.87%. Net investment income grew 10.4% to $418.7 million, supported by higher invested assets and higher portfolio yields. The figure topped our estimate of $407 million. The consensus estimate was $395.6 million.
Selective Insurance Group NASDAQ: SIGI reported its eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit operating return on equity, as higher investment income and underwriting profits across all three insurance segments helped offset weaker premium trends in parts of the business.
On the company’s second-quarter 2026 earnings call, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer John Marchioni said Selective generated a 13.7% operating ROE, supported by an 18% year-over-year increase in investment income. The company’s combined ratio improved 2.2 points from a year earlier to 98.0%, including 5.6 points of catastrophe losses.
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Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Patrick Brennan said Selective reported fully diluted earnings per share of $2.11 and non-GAAP operating EPS of $1.95 for the quarter. Year to date, the company produced a 13.0% ROE and a 12.8% operating ROE, ahead of its 12% target.
Premium declines reflect underwriting discipline Marchioni said net premiums written declined 5% in the quarter, emphasizing that the decrease was partly the result of deliberate actions to improve portfolio economics and long-term returns. In Standard Commercial Lines, the company’s largest segment, the combined ratio was 99.7% year to date, and management said improving margins there remains a central focus.
Selective’s Standard Commercial Lines net premiums written fell 6% in the quarter. Marchioni said lower new business accounted for three percentage points of the decrease, while actions on the renewal portfolio, particularly in the company’s worst-performing cohorts, drove the remaining three points.
“We are constraining growth where margins do not meet our targets,” Marchioni said, adding that Selective is focusing new business and retention strategies on accounts that improve the earnings power of the book.
The company said Standard Commercial Lines new business premium declined 22% in the second quarter, consistent with the first quarter. Marchioni attributed the decline to stronger new business pricing, informed by Selective’s view of expected loss trends, and a competitive market that drove lower conversion rates.
Selective also continued efforts to diversify away from heavier exposure to contractors. Marchioni said contractors represented 43% of commercial lines premiums in 2025 but accounted for 33% of new business through the first half of 2026. He said contractors remain an important vertical, but the casualty-oriented nature of that business has pressured performance as the industry faces elevated commercial casualty loss trends.
Commercial casualty trends remain a focus Brennan said Selective had no prior-year casualty reserve development at the segment or line-of-business level in the quarter. He said severities have generally tracked in line with expectations, though the company observed higher-than-expected frequency in commercial auto liability during the first half and adjusted current-year loss ratios accordingly.
In commercial auto, the year-to-date underlying loss ratio was 69.7%, up modestly from full-year 2025. Brennan said that reflected current accident-year frequency adjustments and previously anticipated severity pressures, partially offset by earned renewal pure price. In general liability, the year-to-date underlying loss ratio was 0.8 points higher than full-year 2025, reflecting elevated severity trends embedded in the company’s planning process.
For the quarter, renewal pure price increased 7.4% excluding workers’ compensation. General liability pricing rose 8.7%, while commercial auto pricing increased 9.3%. Brennan said auto liability pricing approached 13%.
During the question-and-answer session, Marchioni said Selective’s response to commercial auto was based on frequency in the current year, not a change in its view of loss trends. He said there is a hypothesis that winter weather in the northern U.S. contributed to elevated frequency, but management considered it prudent to react to the data.
Marchioni also discussed tort reform efforts, citing changes in Georgia, targeted liquor liability reforms in South Carolina and restrictions on third-party litigation financing in North Carolina. However, he said these developments remain state-specific and are not broad enough to alter Selective’s view of casualty severity trends in the near term.
E&S remains profitable despite competitive pressure Selective’s excess and surplus lines segment delivered a 91.8% combined ratio in the second quarter. Marchioni said underwriting remained disciplined across both property and casualty.
Renewal pure price in E&S rose 3.4%, with continued casualty rate momentum reflecting the company’s view of general liability loss trends. Property pricing was slightly negative, which Marchioni said was consistent with competitive market conditions and strong margins.
Net premiums written in E&S declined 2% in the quarter. Marchioni said the E&S market has benefited from strong tailwinds in recent years but historically has been more cyclical than the admitted market. He said Selective is seeing more capacity enter the marketplace, including appetite expansion by admitted market carriers.
Despite that pressure, Marchioni said the company’s E&S business remains a long-term opportunity, supported by its margins, 50-state footprint and expanded distribution channel that includes retail agents.
Personal lines profitability improves year to date In personal lines, Selective reported a second-quarter combined ratio of 95.5%, up from 91.6% a year earlier due to higher non-catastrophe property losses. For the first half of 2026, the segment’s combined ratio was 94.1%, 80 basis points better than the first six months of 2025 and ahead of the company’s 95% target.
Marchioni said personal lines results remained stronger outside New Jersey. Net premiums written declined 8%, while target business was down 2%. New business decreased 36% in the quarter, driven by a more competitive auto market and restrictions the company has in place to manage exposure in New Jersey.
Homeowners premium was relatively flat in the quarter as Selective gained traction in its target market. Marchioni said average new business home values remained above $1 million for the first half, and target market business now represents about 70% of homeowners premium. Renewal pure price in personal lines increased 8.9%.
Investment income outlook raised Brennan said after-tax net investment income totaled $119 million in the quarter, up 18% year over year. The increase was driven by higher book yields from elevated interest rates, deployment of operating cash flows and active portfolio management. The investment portfolio had an average credit quality of A+ and a duration of 4.3 years.
Selective raised its 2026 after-tax net investment income expectation to $480 million from its original estimate of $465 million. The company reaffirmed its GAAP combined ratio guidance of 96.5% to 97.5%, assuming six points of catastrophe losses, but Brennan said results are expected to be near the top of the range given year-to-date underlying trends.
The company also renewed its casualty excess of loss and property per risk reinsurance treaties effective July 1. Brennan said the casualty treaty provides $87 million of protection above a $3 million retention, while the property per risk treaty provides $115 million of coverage above a $5 million retention.
On capital management, Brennan said Selective returned nearly 50% of second-quarter after-tax net income to shareholders through its regular dividend and $32 million of share repurchases. At quarter-end, $108 million remained under the company’s repurchase authorization.
Marchioni also noted several corporate milestones, including Selective’s 100th anniversary, its 50th year as a public company, the opening of a new corporate headquarters in Short Hills, New Jersey, and the company’s July 1 launch in Montana and Wyoming.
About Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SIGI)Selective Insurance Group, Inc is an insurance holding company headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey. The organization traces its roots to a regional provider of property and casualty coverage and became a publicly traded holding company following its initial public offering in 1999. Since its formation, Selective has expanded through strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives to broaden its product offerings and strengthen its market position.
The company's core business encompasses a broad range of property and casualty insurance products designed to serve both commercial and personal lines customers.
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Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.95 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.31 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +13.37%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurance holding company would post earnings of $1.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.69, delivering a surprise of -2.31%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Selective Insurance, which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, posted revenues of $1.38 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.96%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.32 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Selective Insurance shares have added about 14.8% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 9.6%.
What's Next for Selective Insurance?While Selective Insurance has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Selective Insurance was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.83 on $1.38 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $7.84 on $5.5 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the bottom 39% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.
This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.08 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -161.5%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Hagerty, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $321.01 million, down 12.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) reported $1.38 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 4%. EPS of $1.95 for the same period compares to $1.31 a year ago.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 billion, representing a surprise of +0.96%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +13.37%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.72.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Selective Insurance performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Combined ratio: 98% versus 99.7% estimated by five analysts on average.Loss and loss expense ratio: 67.2% versus 68.9% estimated by five analysts on average.Underwriting expense ratio: 30.8% compared to the 30.8% average estimate based on five analysts.Standard Commercial Lines - Combined Ratio: 99.3% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 100.3%.Standard Personal Lines - Combined Ratio: 95.5% versus 104.1% estimated by three analysts on average.Excess and Surplus Lines - Combined Ratio: 91.8% compared to the 91% average estimate based on three analysts.Revenues- Net premiums earned: $1.22 billion versus the five-analyst average estimate of $1.21 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +2.3%.Revenues- Other income: $9.4 million compared to the $7.05 million average estimate based on five analysts. The reported number represents a change of +44.6% year over year.Revenues- Net investment income earned: $150.2 million compared to the $146.03 million average estimate based on five analysts. The reported number represents a change of +17.3% year over year.Revenues- Excess and Surplus Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $155.8 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $158.8 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +5.3%.Revenues- Standard Commercial Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $962 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $953.02 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +2.6%.Revenues- Standard Personal Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $97.6 million compared to the $98.23 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -4.7% year over year.View all Key Company Metrics for Selective Insurance here>>>
Shares of Selective Insurance have returned +0.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The upcoming report from Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $1.72 per share, indicating an increase of 31.3% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $1.36 billion, representing an increase of 3% year over year.
Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted downward by 0.2% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.
Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.
While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.
Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Selective Insurance metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.
Analysts expect 'Revenues- Net premiums earned' to come in at $1.21 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +1.8% year over year.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Revenues- Other income' should arrive at $7.05 million. The estimate indicates a change of +8.4% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts predict that the 'Revenues- Net investment income earned' will reach $146.03 million. The estimate suggests a change of +14.1% year over year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Revenues- Excess and Surplus Lines- Net Premiums Earned' reaching $158.80 million. The estimate suggests a change of +7.3% year over year.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Revenues- Standard Commercial Lines- Net Premiums Earned' should come in at $953.02 million. The estimate points to a change of +1.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Standard Personal Lines- Net Premiums Earned' stands at $98.23 million. The estimate indicates a change of -4.1% from the prior-year quarter.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Combined ratio' will reach 99.7%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 100.2%.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Loss and loss expense ratio' will likely reach 68.9%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 69.3%.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Underwriting expense ratio' will reach 30.8%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 30.8%.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Standard Commercial Lines - Combined Ratio' of 100.3%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 102.8%.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Standard Personal Lines - Combined Ratio' at 104.1%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 91.6% in the same quarter last year.
Analysts forecast 'Excess and Surplus Lines - Combined Ratio' to reach 91.0%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 89.8% in the same quarter last year.
View all Key Company Metrics for Selective Insurance here>>>
Selective Insurance shares have witnessed a change of +4.6% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.3% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), SIGI is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 23, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis insurance holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.72 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +31.3%.
Revenues are expected to be $1.36 billion, up 3% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Selective Insurance?For Selective Insurance, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +10.92%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.
So, this combination indicates that Selective Insurance will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Selective Insurance would post earnings of $1.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.69, delivering a surprise of -2.31%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Selective Insurance appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player's Expected ResultsRLI Corp. (RLI - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.71 for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of -15.5%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $455.81 million, up 3.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for RLI Corp. has remained unchanged. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of -0.71%, reflecting a lower Most Accurate Estimate.
This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that RLI Corp. will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Key Takeaways SIGI is prioritizing underwriting profitability, with solid combined ratios in E&S and Personal Lines. SIGI is expanding Standard Commercial Lines, and benefiting from higher net investment income. AI investments are improving underwriting, while disciplined capital returns support shareholder value. Shares of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) closed at $95.93 on Friday, near its 52-week high of $100.40. This proximity underscores investor confidence. It has the ingredients for further price appreciation. The stock is trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $90.07 and $83.22, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI is an OutperformerShares of Selective Insurance have gained 9.3% in the past year, outperforming the industry’s growth of 5.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Selective Insurance has outperformed its peers, including NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) , W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) and RLI Corp. (RLI - Free Report) . Shares of NMIH and WRB have gained 7.8% and 3.9%, respectively, while RLI has lost 14.4% in the past year.
SIGI’s Growth Projection EncouragesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.50 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 3.1%. The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 13.3% and 3.1%, respectively, from the 2026 estimates.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment for SIGITwo of the five analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for both 2026 and 2027 over the past 30 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved north 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, over the past 60 days.
SIGI’s Favorable Return on EquityReturn on equity in the trailing-12 months was 13.7%, better than the industry average of 7.4%. This highlights the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
Factors Favoring SIGI StockSIGI continues to prioritize underwriting profitability over aggressive premium growth. Strong performance in the Excess & Surplus (“E&S”) segment, with a combined ratio of 89.5% in first-quarter 2026, and improved Personal Lines profitability, with a combined ratio of 92.8%, highlights the benefits of disciplined underwriting and selective risk retention. Management is selectively retaining its best-performing accounts while reducing exposure to underperforming businesses.
SIGI continues to raise renewal rates to address elevated loss-cost trends. The company achieved renewal price increases of nearly 10% in general liability over the past seven quarters, well above industry averages. In commercial auto liability, it witnessed pure price increases of almost 12% in the first quarter. Management believes these rate increases position the company to offset social inflation and improve long-term underwriting profitability.
Selective Insurance is steadily expanding its Standard Commercial Lines business toward a near-national footprint, now operating in 36 states and the District of Columbia. This growth is driven by an agent-based model with around 1,680 partners across 2,940 offices, supporting geographic diversification and more stable, cycle-resilient premium growth.
Higher net investment income continues to support earnings growth. After-tax net investment income increased 18% year over year in the first quarter, benefiting from favorable yields and a conservatively positioned investment portfolio. Selective Insurance expects after-tax net investment income of $465 million in 2026. Strong and reliable returns from its growing fixed-income portfolio, supported by higher returns from its short-term investments, are likely to drive the metric.
Selective Insurance is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence and technology capabilities to enhance underwriting, claims processing and risk management. AI tools have already processed more than 0.5 million claims-related documents, while a significant portion of the company's 2026 strategic technology spending is focused on improving risk selection and pricing accuracy.
Selective Insurance continues to return capital through dividends and repurchases while keeping flexibility for underwriting and investment opportunities. The company continues to prioritize profitable growth and aims to return 20-25% of earnings to shareholders through dividends.
ConclusionWhile Selective Insurance remains well-positioned to gain from strong renewals, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions and higher income earned on fixed-income securities portfolio, challenges facing the company, such as exposure to catastrophe losses, rising competition and social inflation, can drive earnings volatility.
SIGI should benefit from favorable growth estimates, higher ROE, optimistic analyst sentiment and prudent capital deployment.
Coupled with an impressive dividend history, solid growth projections, favorable ROE and optimistic analyst sentiment, the time appears right for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Selective Insurance also has a VGM Score of A. Stocks with a favorable VGM Score are those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum compared with peers. Its impressive dividend history as well as attractive valuations are other positives. Back-tested results show that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B, when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 or 2, offer the best opportunities in the value investing space.
Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.
The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Since a changing earnings picture is a powerful factor influencing near-term stock price movements, the Zacks rating system is very useful for individual investors. They may find it difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, as these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time.
As such, the Zacks rating upgrade for Selective Insurance is essentially a positive comment on its earnings outlook that could have a favorable impact on its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock PricesThe change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. That's partly because of the influence of institutional investors that use earnings and earnings estimates for calculating the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.
For Selective Insurance, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate RevisionsAs empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, tracking such revisions for making an investment decision could be truly rewarding. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Earnings Estimate Revisions for Selective InsuranceFor the fiscal year ending December 2026, this insurance holding company is expected to earn $7.81 per share, which is unchanged compared with the year-ago reported number.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Selective Insurance. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 1.2%.
Bottom LineUnlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of "buy" and "sell" ratings for its entire universe of more than 4,000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a "Strong Buy" rating and the next 15% get a "Buy" rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here >>>
The upgrade of Selective Insurance to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors rely on traditional forms of analysis on key valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are undervalued, leaving room for profits.
Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today.
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI - Free Report) is a stock many investors are watching right now. SIGI is currently sporting a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.89 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 27.91. SIGI's Forward P/E has been as high as 25.81 and as low as 9.60, with a median of 11.46, all within the past year.
We should also highlight that SIGI has a P/B ratio of 1.49. The P/B is a method of comparing a stock's market value to its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This stock's P/B looks attractive against its industry's average P/B of 1.50. Over the past 12 months, SIGI's P/B has been as high as 2.09 and as low as 1.44, with a median of 1.77.
Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. SIGI has a P/S ratio of 1.09. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 1.31.
Finally, our model also underscores that SIGI has a P/CF ratio of 11.43. This figure highlights a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find firms that are undervalued when considering their impressive cash outlook. This stock's P/CF looks attractive against its industry's average P/CF of 11.75. Within the past 12 months, SIGI's P/CF has been as high as 24.20 and as low as 11.07, with a median of 20.78.
These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at, but they help show that Selective Insurance Group is likely being undervalued right now. Considering this, as well as the strength of its earnings outlook, SIGI feels like a great value stock at the moment.
Key Takeaways The Standard Commercial Lines segment generated 71% of total revenues and 79% of net premiums written in 2025.Expansion into new states, including Kansas in 2025, supports premium growth and broader market presence.Higher new business, pricing, renewal exposure and retention continue to drive growth in the segment. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) has a strong presence in the standard commercial lines market, focusing primarily on small and middle-market businesses. SIGI sells the Standard Commercial Lines property and casualty insurance products and services to commercial enterprises, typically businesses, non-profit organizations, and local government agencies, primarily in 36 states and the District of Columbia.
Selective Insurance continues to expand its Standard Commercial Lines footprint with the goal of a near national presence, while maintaining an agent-driven distribution model. Since 2017, SIGI has added 14 states to the Standard Commercial Lines footprint, including Kansas in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, these expansion states produced $125 million in premiums, representing approximately 9% of total direct premiums written and 1% marginal total premium growth. SIGI expects to write new business in Montana and Wyoming by the end of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.
Standard Commercial Lines is the core revenue driver for Selective Insurance Group, making it the company's primary earnings engine. It generates the majority of the company's premium revenue, supplies the investment float that supports investment income, and serves as the foundation of the long-term growth strategy. This segment accounted for 71% of total revenues and 79% of total net premiums written in 2025. Higher new business, renewal pure price increases, exposure growth on renewal policies, and higher retention should continue to drive premiums in the segment.
Selective Insurance's standard commercial lines strategy centers on profitable underwriting rather than market-share expansion. By concentrating on well-understood industries, maintaining strong independent agency partnerships and exercising disciplined pricing, SIGI has consistently generated underwriting results that compare favorably with many peers across the commercial property and casualty insurance industry.
What About Its Peers?Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) , a global specialty underwriter, has a strategic focus on specialty products, including professional liability, cyber insurance, marine and aviation. AXS has been witnessing an increase in its top line over a considerable period of time on the back of higher net premiums. Its well-performing Insurance segment largely contributes to improving premiums. It continues to boost shareholder value through stock buybacks and dividend hikes.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR - Free Report) has been displaying a good track record of net written premiums due to increased volume of policies written across the lines of business, driven by new business generated with existing partners, strong premium retention rates for existing business, expansion of its products’ geographic and distribution footprint, and new partnerships. Backed by a sustained operational performance, the company has maintained a solid capital position.
SIGI’s Price PerformanceShares of SIGI have gained 9.9% in the past year, outperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI’s Expensive ValuationThe stock is overvalued compared with its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.67, above the industry average of 1.42. It carries a Value Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimate Movement for SIGIThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SIGI’s second-quarter 2026 EPS has moved up 2.4% in the past 60 days. The same for full-year 2026 and 2027 EPS has moved up 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Key Takeaways Selective Insurance sees premium growth from strong retention and gains in standard and E&S lines. SIGI expects $465M after-tax net investment income in 2026, driven by portfolio returns. Selective Insurance maintains strong capital, boosting dividends and share buybacks confidence. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) shares are trading at a discount compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its forward price-to-book value of 1.35X is lower than the industry average of 1.39X, the Finance sector’s 4.07X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 7.86X. The insurer has a Value Score of A.
Shares of RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) , NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) and Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) are also trading at a discount to the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The insurer has a market capitalization of $4.62 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.5 million.
SIGI Price PerformanceShares of Selective Insurance have lost 14.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 6.3% in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI’s Growth Projection EncouragesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.59 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 4.9%. The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 12.7% and 4.9%, respectively, from the 2026 estimates.
Selective Insurance has an impressive Growth Score of B. This style score helps analyze the growth prospects of a company.
Target Price Reflects Potential UpsideBased on short-term price targets offered by seven analysts, the Zacks average price target is $88.43 per share. The average indicates a potential 15.5% upside from the last closing price.
Factors Favoring SIGI StockExposure growth, solid retention rates and higher new business gains in standard commercial and excess and surplus (E&S) lines should drive premium growth.
Steady betterment of premiums, improved net investment income and higher other income have resulted in top-line improvement.
The E&S Lines segment of Selective Insurance is likely to improve because of renewal pure price increases, higher direct new business and favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions.
Given impressive investment results, Selective Insurance expects after-tax net investment income of $465 million in 2026. Strong and reliable returns from its growing fixed-income portfolio, supported by higher returns from its non-fixed income portfolio, are likely to drive the metric.
Selective Insurance flaunts a sound capital structure and remains committed to enhancing shareholders' value while improving its financial strength and underwriting capabilities. SIGI's capital remains strong with $3.6 billion of GAAP equity as well as statutory surplus as of Dec. 31, 2025, and a book value per share increase of 18% year over year. The company's strong operating cash flow provides ample financial flexibility to support organic growth plans and execute its strategic initiatives. It remains well-positioned to continue executing on the strategic objectives and delivering growth and profitability.
Impressive Wealth DistributionRiding on a solid capital position, Selective Insurance has been hiking dividends, which witnessed a 10-year CAGR (2015-2024) of about 10%, banking on strong financial and operating performance. In 2025, Selective Insurance repurchased shares for $85.4 million and had $170 million remaining under authorization as of Dec. 31, 2025. Such steadfast endeavors raise investor confidence, making it an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors. Its dividend yield of 2% appears attractive compared with the industry average of 0.2%.
SIGI’s Favorable Return on CapitalReturn on equity in the trailing 12 months was 14.2%, better than the industry average of 7.2%. This highlights the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
ConclusionWhile Selective Insurance remains well-positioned to gain from strong renewal, fuel price increases, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions and higher income earned on fixed-income securities portfolio, the specific challenges facing the company, like exposure to catastrophe loss and escalating expenses, cannot be ignored.
SIGI also has a VGM Score of A. Stocks with a favorable VGM Score are those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum compared with peers.
SIGI should benefit from favorable growth estimates, higher return on capital and prudent capital deployment. It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SG Americas Securities LLC grew its stake in Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI – Free Report) by 381.2% during the 4th quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 28,347 shares of the insurance provider’s stock after acquiring an additional 22,456 shares during the quarter. SG Americas Securities LLC’s holdings in Selective Insurance Group were worth $2,372,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of the stock. AQR Capital Management LLC boosted its stake in Selective Insurance Group by 174.6% in the 2nd quarter. AQR Capital Management LLC now owns 1,593,645 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $137,340,000 after purchasing an additional 1,013,371 shares in the last quarter. Norges Bank bought a new position in shares of Selective Insurance Group in the second quarter worth approximately $61,437,000. American Century Companies Inc. grew its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 1,299.9% during the third quarter. American Century Companies Inc. now owns 301,965 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $24,480,000 after buying an additional 280,395 shares during the last quarter. First Trust Advisors LP grew its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 657.3% during the third quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 305,629 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $24,777,000 after buying an additional 265,270 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Tributary Capital Management LLC increased its position in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 91.2% during the third quarter. Tributary Capital Management LLC now owns 552,650 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $44,803,000 after acquiring an additional 263,631 shares in the last quarter. 82.88% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
Selective Insurance Group Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ:SIGI opened at $76.92 on Friday. The company has a quick ratio of 0.32, a current ratio of 0.32 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26. The stock has a market capitalization of $4.60 billion, a PE ratio of 10.27 and a beta of 0.26. The firm’s 50 day moving average price is $81.25 and its 200-day moving average price is $80.85. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. has a twelve month low of $71.75 and a twelve month high of $93.38.
Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SIGI – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, January 29th. The insurance provider reported $2.57 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.24 by $0.33. Selective Insurance Group had a net margin of 8.74% and a return on equity of 14.23%. The company had revenue of $1.36 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.36 billion. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted $1.62 earnings per share. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 8.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities research analysts expect that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. will post 7.62 EPS for the current year.
Selective Insurance Group Announces Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Monday, March 2nd. Investors of record on Friday, February 13th were given a $0.43 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Friday, February 13th. This represents a $1.72 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.2%. Selective Insurance Group’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 22.96%.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades SIGI has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Piper Sandler increased their target price on Selective Insurance Group from $79.00 to $86.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research note on Monday, February 2nd. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Selective Insurance Group in a research report on Wednesday, March 25th. Royal Bank Of Canada reissued an “outperform” rating and issued a $95.00 target price on shares of Selective Insurance Group in a research report on Monday, March 23rd. Finally, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reduced their price target on shares of Selective Insurance Group from $82.00 to $81.00 and set a “market perform” rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, five have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $83.00.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on SIGI
Selective Insurance Group Company Profile (Free Report)
Selective Insurance Group, Inc is an insurance holding company headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey. The organization traces its roots to a regional provider of property and casualty coverage and became a publicly traded holding company following its initial public offering in 1999. Since its formation, Selective has expanded through strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives to broaden its product offerings and strengthen its market position.
The company’s core business encompasses a broad range of property and casualty insurance products designed to serve both commercial and personal lines customers.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Selective Insurance Group Want to see what other hedge funds are holding SIGI? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI – Free Report).
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Shares of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGI - Get Free Report) have received a consensus rating of "Hold" from the seven brokerages that are covering the stock, MarketBeat reports. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have assigned a hold rating and one has issued a buy rating on
Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 22, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis insurance holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -1.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $1.37 billion, up 6.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.49% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Selective Insurance?For Selective Insurance, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +5.78%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Selective Insurance will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Selective Insurance would post earnings of $2.24 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.57, delivering a surprise of +14.73%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Selective Insurance doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAmong the stocks in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, Chubb (CB - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $6.46 per share for the quarter ended March 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +75.5%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $14.85 billion, up 8.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Chubb has remained unchanged. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of +2.26%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Chubb will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.76 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -2.31%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurance holding company would post earnings of $2.24 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.57, delivering a surprise of +14.73%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Selective Insurance, which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, posted revenues of $1.37 billion for the quarter ended March 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.46%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.29 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Selective Insurance shares have lost about 3.3% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 3.2%.
What's Next for Selective Insurance?While Selective Insurance has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Selective Insurance was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.65 on $1.39 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $7.71 on $5.6 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the top 24% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on April 28.
This property and casualty insurer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.45 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +59.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.8% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
Arch Capital Group's revenues are expected to be $4.67 billion, up 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.
For the quarter ended March 2026, Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) reported revenue of $1.37 billion, up 6.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.69, compared to $1.76 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of -0.46% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.73, the EPS surprise was -2.31%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Selective Insurance performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Underwriting expense ratio: 31.2% versus the five-analyst average estimate of 31.4%.Loss and loss expense ratio: 67% compared to the 66.8% average estimate based on five analysts.Combined ratio: 98.3% compared to the 98.4% average estimate based on five analysts.Standard Commercial Lines - Combined Ratio: 100.2% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 98.8%.Excess and Surplus Lines - Combined Ratio: 89.5% versus 87.2% estimated by three analysts on average.Standard Personal Lines - Combined Ratio: 92.8% compared to the 101% average estimate based on three analysts.Revenues- Net premiums earned: $1.22 billion versus the five-analyst average estimate of $1.22 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +5%.Revenues- Net investment income earned: $142.4 million versus $143.42 million estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +18% change.Revenues- Other income: $7.6 million versus $7.45 million estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +38.2% change.Revenues- Standard Commercial Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $965.8 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $959.3 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +5.9%.Revenues- Standard Personal Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $100 million compared to the $99.89 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -3.6% year over year.Revenues- Excess and Surplus Lines- Net Premiums Earned: $151.4 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $160.21 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +6%.View all Key Company Metrics for Selective Insurance here>>>
Shares of Selective Insurance have returned +8.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +8.6% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways SIGI's Q1 EPS of $1.69 missed estimates, down 11% YoY on higher catastrophe losses and weak underwriting. SIGI saw revenues rise 6% to $1.3 billion, aided by higher premiums and 18% jump in investment income. SIGI's underwriting income fell 53% as the combined ratio worsened, while catastrophe losses climbed sharply. Selective Insurance Group (SIGI - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.69 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%. The bottom line decreased 11% year over year.
The company’s quarterly performance reflects significantly higher catastrophe losses and weaker underwriting, partially offset by strong investment income tailwinds.
Behind the HeadlinesOperating revenues of $1.4 billion increased 6.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level, driven primarily by higher net premiums earned and net investment income. However, the top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
Underwriting income of $17 million declined 53% year over year, caused by higher catastrophe losses and an increased loss ratio.
The combined ratio deteriorated 220 basis points year over year to 98.3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 98.3, while our estimate was 98.1
Total expenses rose 7% year over year to $1.2 billion, mainly due to loss expenses incurred, corporate expenses and other expenses. The figure was on par with our estimate.
Segmental ResultsStandard Commercial Lines’ NPW was down 1% year over year to $992.4 million, due to lower new business. This was below our estimate of $908.4 million.
The combined ratio was 100.2, deteriorating by 380 basis points year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 99, while our estimate was 98.1.
Standard Personal Lines’ NPW declined 6% year over year to $82.5 million, reflecting reduced new business volume, while underwriting performance improved meaningfully. The average renewal price rose 10.1%, and retention was 78%. The figure was below our estimate of $89.6 million.
The combined ratio was 92.8, improved significantly by 520 basis points. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 101, while our estimate was 106.5.
Excess & Surplus Lines’ NPW rose 1% year over year to $150.7 million, driven by average renewal pure price increases of 4.1%. Our estimate was $174 million.
The combined ratio was 89.5, improving 300 basis points year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 87.2, while our estimate was 90.1.
Financial UpdateSelective Insurance exited the first quarter of 2026 with total assets of $15.3 billion, up 1% from the December-end 2025 level.
Long-term debt remained stable at $901.9 million, while adjusted book value per share rose 2% to $58.94 as of March 31, 2026.
Operating return on common equity in the first quarter was 12%, contracted 14.4% a year ago.
Share Repurchase and Dividend UpdateDuring the first quarter of 2026, the company repurchased shares worth $30 million.
A quarterly cash dividend of 43 cents per common share is payable on June 1, 2026, to its shareholders of record as of May 15.
2026 GuidanceSIGI estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5-97.5.
Selective Insurance estimates after-tax net investment income of $465 million.
SIGI assumes no prior-year casualty reserve development.
The overall effective tax rate is expected to be around 21.5%.
Weighted average shares are estimated to be 60.5 million on a fully diluted basis.
Zacks RankSIGI currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other InsurersThe Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 core income of $7.71 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.5%. The bottom line surged four folds year over year. Travelers’ total revenues remained flat from the year-ago quarter to $11.9 billion. The top-line figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7%.
Net written premiums increased 2% year over year to a record $10.3 billion, driven by strong growth across Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance segments. Net investment income rose 8.4% year over year to $1 billion. The figure matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The Progressive Corporation’s (PGR - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.96 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%. The bottom line increased 6.7% year over year.
Operating revenues grew 8.2% year over year to $22.3 billion driven by 8% higher net premiums earned, a 12.7% increase in net investment income, a 3.5% rise in fees and other revenues, and 13.5% higher service revenues. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. Net premiums earned grew 8% to $20.9 billion. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%.
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.30 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15%. The bottom line increased 28.7% year over year.
Total revenues were $3.7 billion, up 5% year over year, driven by higher net premiums earned, improved net investment income, higher revenues from non-insurance businesses and increased other income. The top line missed the consensus estimate by 0.28%. W.R. Berkley’s net premiums written were about $3.2 billion, up 1.3% year over year. The figure missed our estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 billion.
Selective Insurance Group faces a challenging environment as insurance markets soften and claims costs continue to rise, squeezing underwriting profits. Recent reserve charges and elevated loss picks, especially in commercial auto and general liability, underline claims cost inflation risk and the potential for further adverse developments. SIGI maintains attractive long-term growth opportunities via expansion into new states and its focus on hard-to-service small commercial clients, despite intensifying competition.
Cwm LLC raised its position in Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI – Free Report) by 103.6% during the 4th quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm owned 27,039 shares of the insurance provider’s stock after buying an additional 13,757 shares during the quarter. Cwm LLC’s holdings in Selective Insurance Group were worth $2,262,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC.
Several other institutional investors also recently bought and sold shares of the company. Farther Finance Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Selective Insurance Group by 666.7% during the fourth quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC now owns 759 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $64,000 after acquiring an additional 660 shares during the period. Choreo LLC raised its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 5.2% in the fourth quarter. Choreo LLC now owns 3,867 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $327,000 after acquiring an additional 192 shares during the last quarter. Exchange Traded Concepts LLC raised its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 16.5% in the fourth quarter. Exchange Traded Concepts LLC now owns 11,784 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $986,000 after acquiring an additional 1,669 shares during the last quarter. Pallas Capital Advisors LLC raised its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 43.6% in the fourth quarter. Pallas Capital Advisors LLC now owns 4,475 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $374,000 after acquiring an additional 1,359 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Trust Point Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Selective Insurance Group by 8.4% in the fourth quarter. Trust Point Inc. now owns 7,683 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $643,000 after acquiring an additional 596 shares during the last quarter. 82.88% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Selective Insurance Group Stock Performance Shares of SIGI stock opened at $82.48 on Friday. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. has a one year low of $71.75 and a one year high of $91.63. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a quick ratio of 0.32 and a current ratio of 0.30. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $79.66 and a 200 day moving average price of $80.95. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.94 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.28 and a beta of 0.26.
Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SIGI – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, April 22nd. The insurance provider reported $1.69 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.81 by ($0.12). Selective Insurance Group had a net margin of 8.39% and a return on equity of 13.71%. The firm had revenue of $1.36 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.29 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $1.76 EPS. Selective Insurance Group’s revenue was up 5.7% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts anticipate that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. will post 7.68 EPS for the current year.
Selective Insurance Group Dividend Announcement The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Monday, June 1st. Investors of record on Friday, May 15th will be issued a dividend of $0.43 per share. The ex-dividend date is Friday, May 15th. This represents a $1.72 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.1%. Selective Insurance Group’s payout ratio is presently 22.96%.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades SIGI has been the topic of several analyst reports. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised their price target on shares of Selective Insurance Group from $84.00 to $88.00 and gave the stock a “market perform” rating in a research note on Friday. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Selective Insurance Group in a research note on Wednesday, March 25th. Royal Bank Of Canada reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and set a $95.00 price target on shares of Selective Insurance Group in a research note on Monday, March 23rd. Finally, Piper Sandler raised their price target on shares of Selective Insurance Group from $79.00 to $86.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Monday, February 2nd. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, five have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Selective Insurance Group has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $84.40.
Check Out Our Latest Report on Selective Insurance Group
Key Stories Impacting Selective Insurance Group Here are the key news stories impacting Selective Insurance Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Analyst price-target increase — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its SIGI target from $84 to $88 and kept a “market perform” rating, giving modest upside potential and signaling some confidence in the outlook. Article Title Positive Sentiment: Dividend announced — SIGI declared a $0.43 quarterly dividend (record May 15; pay June 1), supporting income-oriented investors (roughly a 2% yield). (Company announcement) Positive Sentiment: Reaffirmed 2026 targets — Management reiterated a GAAP combined ratio range of 96.5%–97.5% and after-tax net investment income guidance of $465M, providing some stability around financial targets despite a tougher casualty market. Article Title Neutral Sentiment: Top-line and investment income — Revenue was up year-over-year and investment income showed strong gains in Q1, which offsets some underwriting weakness. Article Title Neutral Sentiment: Market commentary and Q1 deep dive pieces offer context on margin discipline and portfolio moves amid competitive conditions. Article Title Negative Sentiment: EPS miss and underwriting pressure — Q1 EPS of $1.69 missed consensus (~$1.81); management cited catastrophe and underwriting headwinds. That miss is a primary reason investors are selling. Article Title Negative Sentiment: Claims inflation and reserve increases — Coverage: analysts highlight elevated loss picks, reserve charges and rising costs in commercial auto and general liability, which raise the risk of further underwriting deterioration. Article Title About Selective Insurance Group (Free Report)
Selective Insurance Group, Inc is an insurance holding company headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey. The organization traces its roots to a regional provider of property and casualty coverage and became a publicly traded holding company following its initial public offering in 1999. Since its formation, Selective has expanded through strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives to broaden its product offerings and strengthen its market position.
The company’s core business encompasses a broad range of property and casualty insurance products designed to serve both commercial and personal lines customers.
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Key Takeaways KNSL Q1 EPS of $5.11 beat estimates, rising 37.7% YoY on strong underwriting performance. Kinsale Capital revenue grew 10.2% on higher premiums, fees, and investment income. KNSL's combined ratio improved to 77.4, aided by lower catastrophe losses and reserve gains. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL - Free Report) delivered first-quarter 2026 net operating earnings of $5.11 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.7%. The bottom line increased 37.7% year over year.
Operating revenues increased 10.2% year over year to $467 million, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1%.
The quarterly results benefited from growth in net premiums written, increased net investment income and disciplined underwriting supported by efficient capital management. However, these gains were partially offset by elevated operating expenses.
KNSL’s Operational UpdateGross written premiums of $482 million decreased 0.5% year over year, primarily due to a 28.3% decline in the Commercial Property Division. Net written premiums climbed 5.6% year over year to $403.3million.
Net investment income increased 26.5% year over year to $55.4 million. The increase was primarily driven by growth in the company’s investment portfolio.However, net investment income missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
Total expenses increased 5.1% year over year to $327 million due to a rise in underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses as well as interest expense. Our model estimate was $289.6 million.
Kinsale Capital’s underwriting income was $94.5 milion, up 40% year over year. The increase was driven by growth in net earned premiums, higher favorable development of loss reserves from prior accident years, and lower catastrophe losses. Underwriting income surpassed our model estimate by 14.5%.
The combined ratio improved 470 basis points (bps) year over year to 77.4 compared with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79.1. The loss ratio improved 580 bps to 56.3, reflecting lower catastrophe losses and favorable reserve development. The expense ratio deteriorated 110 bps year over year to 21.1.
Financial UpdateKinsale Capital exited the first quarter of 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $ 223.2 million, which increased 36.7% from the 2025-end level.
As of March 31, 2026, stockholders’ equity increased 0.4% year over year to approximately $1.9 billion.
Book value per share was $85.31 as of March 31, 2026, up 1.1% from the 2025-end level.
Annualized operating return on equity improved 150 bps year over year to 24 % in the reported quarter.
Capital DeploymentKNSL repurchased 0.2 million shares for $62.5 million in the first quarter of 2026. The insurer had $187.5 million remaining under its authorization as of March 31, 2026.
KNSL paid a cash dividend of 25 cents per share in the first quarter of 2026.
Zacks RankKNSL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other InsurersSelective Insurance Group (SIGI) reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.69 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%. The bottom line decreased 11% year over year.
Operating revenues of $1.4 billion increased 6.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level, driven primarily by higher net premiums earned and net investment income. The top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%. Net premiums written (NPW) decreased 1% to $1.3 billion. The figure was on par with our estimate.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 core income of $7.71 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.5%. The bottom line surged fourfold year over year. Travelers’ total revenues remained flat from the year-ago quarter to $11.9 billion. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7%.
Net written premiums increased 2% year over year to a record $10.3 billion, driven by strong growth across Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance segments. Net investment income rose 8.4% year over year to $1 billion. The figure matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The Progressive Corporation’s(PGR - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.96 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%. The bottom line increased 6.7% year over year.
Operating revenues grew 8.2% year over year to $22.3 billion, driven by 8% higher net premiums earned, a 12.7% increase in net investment income, a 3.5% rise in fees and other revenues, and 13.5% higher service revenues. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. Net premiums earned grew 8% to $20.9 billion. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%.
Key Takeaways CINF's Q1 operating EPS of $2.10 beats estimates, improving from a $0.24 loss a year ago.Cincinnati Financial's revenues rises 12% on higher earned premiums and net investment income growth.CINF's underwriting income hits $115M as losses fall and combined ratio improves to 95.6. Cincinnati Financial Corporation's (CINF - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $2.10 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.8%. The bottom line improved significantly from a loss of 24 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Total operating revenues for the quarter were $2.9 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase. The figure, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7%.
Quarterly results benefited from strong premium growth, improved pricing, and higher net investment income, alongside a sharp reduction in losses and related expenses.
Operational UpdateEarned premiums climbed 11% year over year to $2.6 billion, driven by premium growth initiatives, price increases and higher insured exposures. The figure marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7%.
Net investment income, net of expenses, increased 14% year over year to $318 million, primarily due to a 12% rise in interest income from fixed-maturity securities and a 13% jump in equity portfolio dividends. The figure marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%
Total benefits and expenses declined 6% year over year to $2.4 billion, mainly due to a 12% decrease in loss and loss expense.
In its property and casualty insurance business, CINF reported underwriting income of $115 million, which improved significantly from a loss of $298 million. The figure was below the Zacks Consensus Estimates of $129.7 million.
The combined ratio, a key measure of underwriting profitability, improved 1770 basis points year over year to 95.6, outperforming the consensus estimate of 96.3.
Quarterly Segment UpdateCommercial Lines Insurance: Total revenues of $1.2 billion increased 5% year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. The upside was primarily driven by a 5% rise in earned premiums.
Underwriting income was $18 million, down 81% year over year. The combined ratio improved 670 basis points year over year to 98.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 96.3%.
Personal Lines Insurance: Total revenues of $875 million increased 25% year over year, driven by an 25% rise in earned premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was $856 million.
Underwriting profit increased significantly year over year to $30 million from a loss of $357 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $28 million. The combined ratio improved 5450 basis points year over year to 96.8%. The figure was on par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance: Total revenues of $181 million grew 11% year over year, aided by an 11% increase in earned premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was $185 million.
Underwriting profit increased 5% year over year to $21 million, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimates of $14.1 million. The combined ratio deteriorated 100 basis points year over year to 89.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 92.7%.
Life Insurance: Total revenues were $140 million, up 8% year over year, driven by 6% higher earned premiums and 8% higher investment income, net of expenses.The Zacks Consensus Estimate was $136 million.
Total benefits and expenses increased 4% year over year to $107 million.
Financial UpdateAs of March 31, 2026, Cincinnati Financial reported total assets of $41.2 billion, up 0.5% from the 2025-end level.
Long-term debt was $791 million as of March 31, 2026, up 0.1% from the 2025-end level.
The company’s debt-to-capital ratio remained flat at 4.9% from the 2025-end level.
As of March 31, 2026, CINF’s book value per share decreased 0.7% year over year to $101.60.
Zacks RankCincinnati Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other InsurersThe Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 core income of $7.71 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.5%. The bottom line surged fourfold year over year. Travelers’ total revenues remained flat from the year-ago quarter to $11.9 billion. The top-line figure, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7%.
Net written premiums increased 2% year over year to a record $10.3 billion, driven by strong growth across Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance segments. Net investment income increased 8.4% year over year to $1 billion. The figure matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The Progressive Corporation’s (PGR - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.96 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%. The bottom line increased 6.7% year over year.
Operating revenues grew 8.2% year over year to $22.3 billion driven by 8% higher net premiums earned, a 12.7% increase in net investment income, a 3.5% rise in fees and other revenues, and 13.5% higher service revenues. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. Net premiums earned grew 8% to $20.9 billion. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%.
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.69 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%. The bottom line decreased 11% year over year.
Operating revenues of $1.4 billion increased 6.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level, driven primarily by higher net premiums earned and net investment income. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%. Net premiums written decreased 1% to $1.3 billion. The figure was on par with our estimate.
Key Takeaways Selective Insurance's premium growth is fueled by exposure gains and solid retention. SIGI expects 2026 after-tax net investment income of $465 million. Selective Insurance cites strong capital levels to support expansion and shareholder returns. Shares of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) closed at $84.78 on Friday, near its 52-week high of $91.63. This proximity underscores investor confidence. It has the ingredients for further price appreciation.
The stock is trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $79.66 and $80.47, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI is an OutperformerShares of Selective Insurance have gained 1.3% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the Finance sector’s growth of 0.2% and the industry’s decline of 12.2%.
Selective Insurance has outperformed its peers, including Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) , NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) and W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) . Shares of AXS, NMIH and WRB have lost 7.2%, 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively, in the year-to-date period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI’s Growth Projection EncouragesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 5.1%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.51 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 3.4%. The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 13.8% and 3.4%, respectively, from the 2026 estimates.
Selective Insurance has an impressive Growth Score of B. This style score helps analyze the growth prospects of a company.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment for SIGITwo of the five analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for both 2026 and 2027 over the past 30 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved north 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, over the past 30 days.
Target Price Reflects Potential UpsideBased on short-term price targets offered by seven analysts, the Zacks average price target is $90.14 per share. The average indicates a potential 6.3% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Favoring SIGI StockExposure growth, solid retention rates and higher new business gains in standard commercial and excess and surplus (E&S) lines should drive premium growth.
Steady betterment of premiums, improved net investment income and higher other income have resulted in top-line improvement.
The E&S Lines segment of Selective Insurance is likely to improve because of renewal pure price increases, higher direct new business and favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions.
Given impressive investment results, Selective Insurance expects after-tax net investment income of $465 million in 2026. Strong and reliable returns from its growing fixed-income portfolio, supported by higher returns from its non-fixed income portfolio, are likely to drive the metric.
Selective Insurance flaunts a sound capital structure and remains committed to enhancing shareholders' value while improving its financial strength and underwriting capabilities. As of March 31, 2026, stockholders’ equity was $3.6 billion, and the net premiums written to policyholders’ surplus ratio was 1.35x, indicating capacity to support underwriting and geographic expansion. Debt-to-total capitalization was 20.1% at quarter-end, and long-term debt was $901 million, which management has kept stable since year-end 2025. This balance supports continued investment in underwriting, claims and technology capabilities while maintaining room for shareholder returns.
Impressive Wealth DistributionSelective Insurance continues to return capital through dividends and repurchases while keeping flexibility for underwriting and investment opportunities. From a valuation perspective, the stock’s multiples remain below broader market averages, and consensus expectations imply relatively steady earnings power, with 2026 EPS estimated at $7.45 and 2027 EPS estimated at $8.70. This combination supports long-term total return potential, even as near-term premium growth is moderated by underwriting choices.
SIGI’s Favorable Return on CapitalReturn on equity in the trailing 12 months was 13.7%, better than the industry average of 7.3%. This highlights the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
ConclusionWhile Selective Insurance remains well-positioned to gain from strong renewal, fuel price increases, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions and higher income earned on fixed-income securities portfolio, the specific challenges facing the company, like exposure to catastrophe loss and escalating expenses, cannot be ignored.
SIGI also has a VGM Score of A. Stocks with a favorable VGM Score are those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum compared with peers.
SIGI should benefit from favorable growth estimates, higher return on capital and prudent capital deployment. It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Selective Insurance due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Selective Insurance Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
Selective Insurance Group reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.69 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%. The bottom line decreased 11% year over year.
The company’s quarterly performance reflects significantly higher catastrophe losses and weaker underwriting, partially offset by strong investment income tailwinds.
Behind the Headlines
Operating revenues of $1.4 billion increased 6.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level, driven primarily by higher net premiums earned and net investment income. However, the top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
On a year-over-year basis, net premiums written ("NPW") decreased 1% to $1.3 billion, due to a decline in standard personal lines and standard commercial lines. The figure was on par with our estimate.
After-tax net investment income increased 18% year over year to $113 million.
Underwriting income of $17 million declined 53% year over year, caused by higher catastrophe losses and an increased loss ratio.
The combined ratio deteriorated 220 basis points year over year to 98.3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 98.3, while our estimate was 98.1
Total expenses rose 7% year over year to $1.2 billion, mainly due to loss expenses incurred, corporate expenses and other expenses. The figure was on par with our estimate.
Segmental Results
Standard Commercial Lines’ NPW was down 1% year over year to $992.4 million, due to lower new business. This was below our estimate of $908.4 million.
The combined ratio was 100.2, deteriorating by 380 basis points year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 99, while our estimate was 98.1.
Standard Personal Lines’ NPW declined 6% year over year to $82.5 million, reflecting reduced new business volume, while underwriting performance improved meaningfully. The average renewal price rose 10.1%, and retention was 78%. The figure was below our estimate of $89.6 million.
The combined ratio was 92.8, improved significantly by 520 basis points. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 101, while our estimate was 106.5.
Excess & Surplus Lines’ NPW rose 1% year over year to $150.7 million, driven by average renewal pure price increases of 4.1%. Our estimate was $174 million.
The combined ratio was 89.5, improving 300 basis points year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 87.2, while our estimate was 90.1.
Financial Update
Selective Insurance exited the first quarter of 2026 with total assets of $15.3 billion, up 1% from the December-end 2025 level.
Long-term debt remained stable at $901.9 million, while adjusted book value per share rose 2% to $58.94 as of March 31, 2026.
Operating return on common equity in the first quarter was 12%, contracted 14.4% a year ago.
Share Repurchase and Dividend Update
During the first quarter of 2026, the company repurchased shares worth $30 million.
A quarterly cash dividend of 43 cents per common share is payable on June 1, 2026, to its shareholders of record as of May 15.
2026 Guidance
SIGI estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5-97.5.
Selective Insurance estimates after-tax net investment income of $465 million.
SIGI assumes no prior-year casualty reserve development.
The overall effective tax rate is expected to be around 21.5%.
Weighted average shares are estimated to be 60.5 million on a fully diluted basis.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
VGM ScoresCurrently, Selective Insurance has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Selective Insurance has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Key Takeaways SIGI improved Q1 E&S combined ratio to 89.5% and Personal Lines to 92.8% through selective underwriting.Selective Insurance achieved ~10% pure price increases in general liability, above industry averages.SIGI expects about $465M in after-tax net investment income in 2026 from its fixed-income portfolio. Shares of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI - Free Report) have gained 9.1% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the industry’s decline of 2.9%. The company’s share price closed at $91.34 on Wednesday and is hovering near its 52-week high of $91.99. This proximity underscores investor confidence. It has the ingredients for further price appreciation.
Selective Insurance has outperformed its peers, including Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) , NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) and W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) , which have lost 6.8%, 9.2% and 2.8%, respectively, in the year-to-date period.
1 Year Performance - SIGI, AXS, NMIH, WRB & Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Target Price Reflects Potential UpsideBased on short-term price targets offered by seven analysts, the Zacks average price target is $92.43 per share. The average indicates a potential 2.4% upside from the last closing price.
SIGI’s ValuationSIGI’s shares are trading at a premium compared to the industry. Its forward price-to-book value of 1.61X is higher than the industry average of 1.38X, but lower than the Finance sector’s 4.42X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 8.01X. It currently has a Value Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SIGI’s Growth Projection EncouragesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance’s 2026 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.5 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 3.2%.
The consensus estimate for 2027 EPS and revenues indicates an increase of 13.4% and 3.1%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment for SIGIOne analyst has raised estimates for 2026 and 2027 over the past 30 days, against no downward movement. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved north 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, over the same period.
SIGI’s Favorable Return on EquityReturn on equity in the trailing-12 months was 13.7%, better than the industry average of 6%. This highlights the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
Factors Favoring SIGI StockSIGI continues to prioritize underwriting profitability over aggressive premium growth. Strong performance in the Excess & Surplus (“E&S”) segment, with a combined ratio of 89.5% in first-quarter 2026 (vs 92.5% year-ago) and improved Personal Lines profitability, with a combined ratio of 92.8% (vs 98 % year-ago), highlights the benefits of disciplined underwriting and selective risk retention. Management is selectively retaining its best-performing accounts while reducing exposure to underperforming businesses.
SIGI continues to raise renewal rates to address elevated loss-cost trends. The company achieved renewal price increases of nearly 10% in general liability over the past seven quarters, well above industry averages. In commercial auto liability, it witnessed pure price increases of almost 12% in the first quarter. Management believes these rate increases position the company to offset social inflation and improve long-term underwriting profitability.
Selective Insurance is steadily expanding its Standard Commercial Lines business toward a near-national footprint, now operating in 36 states and the District of Columbia. This growth is driven by an agent-based model with around 1,680 partners across 2,940 offices, supporting geographic diversification and more stable, cycle-resilient premium growth.
Higher net investment income continues to support earnings growth. After-tax net investment income increased 18% year over year in the first quarter, benefiting from favorable yields and a conservatively positioned investment portfolio. Selective Insurance expects after-tax net investment income of $465 million in 2026. Strong and reliable returns from its growing fixed-income portfolio, supported by higher returns from its short-term investments, are likely to drive the metric.
Selective Insurance is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence and technology capabilities to enhance underwriting, claims processing and risk management. AI tools have already processed more than 0.5 million claims-related documents, while a significant portion of the company's 2026 strategic technology spending is focused on improving risk selection and pricing accuracy.
Selective Insurance continues to return capital through dividends and repurchases while keeping flexibility for underwriting and investment opportunities. The company continues to prioritize profitable growth and aims to return 20-25% of earnings to shareholders through dividends.
Risks for SIGIPersistent social inflation in commercial casualty creates some uncertainty around margin improvement. Hence, Selective Insurance is focusing on rate adequacy over growth, which can affect its size.
Property catastrophe exposure remains a key earnings risk. In first-quarter 2026, catastrophe losses added 620 bps to the combined ratio, highlighting earnings volatility. At the same time, rising competition in commercial lines is constraining premium growth and new business momentum.
ConclusionWhile Selective Insurance remains well-positioned to gain from strong renewals, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions and higher income earned on fixed-income securities portfolio, challenges facing the company, such as exposure to catastrophe losses, rising competition and social inflation, can drive earnings volatility.
SIGI should benefit from favorable growth estimates, higher ROE, optimistic analyst sentiment and prudent capital deployment. It is, therefore, wise to retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
