Akcie Shopify za tři měsíce vzrostly o 55,6 %. Objednávky prostřednictvím AI se ve druhém čtvrtletí 2026 meziročně ztrojnásobily, zatímco podíl Shopify Payments na globálním GMV dosáhl 68 %.
Key Takeaways Shopify shares surged 55.6% in three months, driven by AI expansion and payments growth.Shopify's AI-driven orders tripled in Q2 2026, while Payments penetration reached 68% of global GMV.SHOP trades at 12.33X forward sales versus the sector's 5.72X.
Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) shares have surged 55.6% in the past three months, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 4.9%. This outperformance reflects strong investor enthusiasm surrounding its accelerating e-commerce growth, expanding artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, increasing payments penetration and improving profitability. The company’s prospects are expected to benefit from AI-driven commerce, strong merchant engagement and an expanding international footprint. So, what should investors do with the stock? Let’s find out.
SHOP’s Growing AI Prowess to Steer Off CompetitionShopify is facing stiff competition from the likes of Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , Wix.com (WIX - Free Report) and Commerce.com (CMRC - Free Report) . Amazon’s services, such as Buy with Prime, Amazon Multi-Channel Fulfillment and Amazon Pay, enable merchants to sell both on and off Amazon while leveraging its fulfillment network and checkout technology. Wix competes with Shopify by providing an all-in-one platform that combines website creation, online stores, payments, booking, marketing and AI-powered business tools. Commerce.com offers cloud-based software for building online stores, managing product catalogs, processing payments, supporting omnichannel selling and serving both B2C and B2B merchants.
In terms of share price performance, over the past three months, Wix shares have outperformed Shopify, while shares of Commerce.com and Amazon have outperformed. Wix, Commerce.com and Amazon returned 61.3%, 39%, and 12.3%, respectively.
SHOP Stock’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nevertheless, Shopify’s expanding AI capabilities are expected to help the company steer off competition. The company is positioning itself as an essential infrastructure provider for AI-driven commerce through its Catalog, Universal Commerce Protocol and partnerships with OpenAI, Google, Meta and Microsoft.
The company's Catalog structures data for more than one billion products, enabling AI agents to access accurate product descriptions, pricing and inventory information. AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores tripled year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while new-buyer order rates from AI channels were roughly twice those of other channels. As AI assistants become increasingly important shopping channels, Shopify is expected to benefit from additional merchant discovery, higher conversion rates and increased transaction volumes.
SHOP’s Prospects Ride on Payments PenetrationMeanwhile, Shopify Payments represents one of the company’s most compelling revenue growth catalysts. In the second quarter of 2026, Merchant Solutions revenues rose 37% year over year to $2.78 billion, supported by strong Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and higher payments penetration.
Shopify Payments penetration reached 68% of global GMV, increasing three percentage points year over year. The company expanded payment availability to 40 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, while European penetration increased more than 350 basis points. Shop Pay GMV grew 53% year over year, supported by wider availability of local payment methods, improved checkout experiences and financing options.
Increasing payment penetration allows Shopify to monetize a larger proportion of existing merchant transactions, thereby supporting sustained Merchant Solutions revenue growth. Shopify’s GMV advanced 32% year over year to approximately $116 billion in the second quarter, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%. Management highlighted that merchants generating between $2 million and $25 million in annual GMV continue to contribute the largest incremental GMV, primarily as existing merchants scale their businesses.
SHOP’s Q3’26 Earnings Estimates Revisions Are PositiveThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 45 cents per share, up by a penny over the past 60 days and indicating year-over-year growth of 32.35%. The consensus mark for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.74 billion, suggesting 31.33% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $1.89 per share, unchanged over the past 60 days and indicating year-over-year growth of 61.54%. The consensus mark for 2026 revenues is pegged at $15.19 billion, suggesting 31.46% year-over-year growth.
SHOP Shares Are Trading at a PremiumShopify shares are trading at a premium, as suggested by a Value Score of F.
In terms of the forward 12-month price/sales (P/S), SHOP is currently trading at 12.33X compared with the broader sector’s 5.72X. Shopify shares are pricey compared with Amazon, Wix.com and Commerce.com. Shares of Amazon, Wix.com and Commerce.com are trading at P/S multiples of 3.05, 1.86 and 0.90, respectively.
SHOP Stock’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion: Is SHOP Stock Still a Buy?Shopify’s expanding AI capabilities, increasing payments penetration and robust GMV growth are expected to sustain its strong growth momentum. The company's expanding international presence and positive earnings estimate revisions further strengthen its prospects. Although stiff competition and premium valuation remain concerns, Shopify's strong fundamentals and growing adoption of AI-powered commerce solutions justify investor optimism. The company's solid growth trajectory makes SHOP an attractive stock for long-term investors despite its recent rally.
Shopify currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Key Takeaways Shopify is back with revenue expected to grow 31.5% in 2026.Analysts are raising Shopify's earnings estimates ahead of Q3 earnings on Nov 3, 2026.Shopify shares are rallying again, gaining 37% in the last three months.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) is back to growing earnings at double digits as it adopts AI tools onto its platform. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) is expected to grow revenue by 31.5% in 2026.
Shopify operates a platform that allows people to start, and grow, a business from anywhere. With powerful tools, including thousands of apps, Shopify merchants can be on the cutting edge of any marketplace.
It has millions of merchants in 175+ countries.
Analysts Are Bullish on Shopify AgainShopify reports third quarter 2026 earnings on Nov 3, 2026. But the analysts are already getting bullish.
The Zacks Consensus for Q3 2026 has risen a penny to $0.45 from $0.44 in the last month. But the most accurate estimate, which is the most recent one, is looking for $0.49.
That is bullish to see the most accurate estimate higher than the consensus.
Additionally, analysts have been raising estimates for next year in the last week as well. The 2027 Zacks Consensus is looking for $2.38, up from $2.36 in the last 60 days. The most accurate estimate is looking for $2.41.
This is above the consensus and is bullish for next year.
Earnings are expected to rise 61.5% this year and another 25.9% in 2027.
Here’s what it looks like on the five-year Price and Consensus chart.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify is a Growth Story AgainShopify reported second quarter results on Aug 5, 2026, and beat on the Zacks Consensus by $0.03. Earnings were $0.42 versus the consensus of $0.39.
Revenue grew 34% and free cash flow margins were 18%, up from 16% in the year ago quarter.
“This was a monster quarter: more than 30% growth in GMV AND revenue AND gross profit AND free cash flow,” said Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify.
Shopify is Leaning into AIIn the second quarter, Shopify said there was a 3x increase in orders originating from AI searches year-over-year.
It also has a new agentic section on the admin window which allows merchants to see which AI channels are live and can track their real time performance.
Shares of Shopify RallyShopify was a pandemic darling but then the stock sold off in 2022 when the growth stocks took a hit as the FOMC raised interest rates.
It’s been a long 5 years but the shares have rallied over the last three months, easily beating the S&P 500.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
You aren’t buying Shopify for its valuation. It is still an expensive stock. It trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 89.5. A P/E over 30 is considered stretched. A P/E over 80 is expensive.
But for investors looking for a growth stock with a dose of AI on the side, Shopify should be on your short list.
Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this cloud-based commerce company have returned +31.9%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.5% change. During this period, the Zacks Internet - Services industry, which Shopify falls in, has lost 0.2%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Shopify is expected to post earnings of $0.45 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +32.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.3%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $1.89 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +61.5%. This estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.38 indicates a change of +25.9% from what Shopify is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.2%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Shopify.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Shopify, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $3.74 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +31.3%. For the current and next fiscal years, $15.19 billion and $18.9 billion estimates indicate +31.5% and +24.4% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryShopify reported revenues of $3.58 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +33.7%. EPS of $0.42 for the same period compares with $0.35 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.43 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.36%. The EPS surprise was +7.69%.
Over the last four quarters, Shopify surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Shopify is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Shopify. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Tržní kapitalizace Shopify činí přibližně 218 miliard USD a akcie se obchodují za zhruba 92násobek volných peněžních toků za posledních 12 měsíců, ve srovnání s 33násobkem u Amazonu v roce 2007.
Investors who bought Amazon (AMZN -1.87%) stock at the end of 2007 have watched their shares climb over 50-fold since then. It's natural to ask what e-commerce company could do something similar next.
With its stock near a record, Shopify (SHOP -4.84%) is a clear candidate. Shares of the e-commerce software company closed at a record $179.22 earlier this week, and they trade around $170 as I write.
And on size alone, the comparison works surprisingly well. Shopify's revenue for the last 12 months was about $13.3 billion. Amazon's revenue in 2007 was $14.8 billion.
But Shopify isn't built the way Amazon was, and its stock isn't valued the way Amazon's was in 2007. For anybody buying shares today, I think the second difference matters most.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Shopify is growing like Amazon didAmazon's 2007 was a strong year. Its revenue climbed 39%, and its free cash flow, or the cash Amazon had left after paying for capital spending, more than doubled to $1.18 billion, crossing $1 billion for the first time.
Shopify's growth looks similar, and it's been accelerating. Showing how much faster merchants are selling through the platform, Shopify's gross merchandise volume (GMV, the total value of orders placed through Shopify) grew 20% in 2023, 24% in 2024, and 29% in 2025. It's also cleared 30% year over year in each of the last four quarters. In the second quarter of 2026, GMV rose 32% year over year to around $116 billion, after 35% growth in the first quarter, and revenue climbed 34%.
Shopify's already ahead on cash. Its free cash flow for the last 12 months came to around $2.4 billion, up about 29% from the year-ago period -- and about twice Amazon's 2007 number, on a bit less revenue. That's a free cash flow margin of around 18%, against about 8% for Amazon in 2007.
Put another way, judged by free cash flow, Shopify's business arguably looks stronger now than Amazon's did at the same size.
Not a retailerThis cash gap comes from a core difference between the two companies. Amazon in 2007 was mainly a retailer. Products sold by outside sellers were just 28% of the units sold on its sites that year, so most of its revenue was the full price of goods Amazon sold itself.
Shopify doesn't sell the products. Its merchants do. Shopify charges them for its software, and its merchant solutions business, which brings in around three-quarters of revenue, earns most of its money from processing their payments.
In the last 12 months, Shopify's GMV came to about $432 billion, and the company's revenue was just about 3% of that. Also, the share it handles directly keeps growing. Shopify Payments processed 68% of GMV in the second quarter, up from 64% in the year-ago period.
That's a key reason Shopify's margins look more like a software company's than a retailer's. But it also means Shopify's revenue rises and falls with how much its merchants sell and how big a cut of every sale it takes.
What can buyers expect from the stock?The bigger break in the comparison is the price.
At the end of 2007, Amazon's market value was almost $39 billion, or around 33 times that year's free cash flow. Shopify's market value is about $218 billion now, or about 92 times the free cash flow it produced in the last 12 months. In other words, buyers today pay almost three times as much per dollar of Shopify's free cash flow as investors paid for Amazon's back then.
SHOP Shopify$169.52-$8.62 (-4.84%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
That matters because Amazon's investors had years of compounding without paying for much of it up front. Shopify could keep growing quickly and still deliver far more ordinary returns, since so much of that growth is probably already in the stock price.
Sure, Shopify's growth could stay above 30% longer than seems likely now. But even then, the stock could need years of that growth just to grow into its current valuation.
I think the business has a good chance of becoming one of e-commerce's great long-term compounders. But at today's price, buyers are paying for much of that compounding in advance, so I'd expect far less from the stock than Amazon delivered after 2007.
Shopify zvýšila cenu tarifu Grow o 13 % a tarifu Advanced o 20 %; JPMorgan odhaduje více než 40 mil. USD dodatečných ročních tržeb v anualizovaném vyjádření.
Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) has reportedly increased pricing for its Grow and Advanced plans, according to JPMorgan.
The company increased the Grow plan by 13% or $10 and the Advanced plan by 20% or $60, respectively, as per a Friday note by analyst Bryan Smilek.
The firm tracks pricing changes for the U.S. merchants and the increase observed on Oct. 15 compares to prices in early October.
Smilek continues to maintain an Overweight rating with the price forecast of $200, most recently raised on Oct. 6.
• Shopify shares are sliding. Why is SHOP stock dropping?
Expects Incremental Annualized Revenue UpliftThe analyst estimates that the price increases could generate more than $40 million in incremental annualized revenue over time, assuming nearly 65% of non-Plus merchants use monthly plans and the raises are eventually rolled out globally.
Separately, previously announced Shopify Plus price increases, scheduled to take effect in 2027, could contribute over $90 million in incremental annualized Subscription Solutions revenue in 2027.
Smilek expects minimal churn risk across SMB merchants or Plus merchants due to price increase.
The firm reiterated Shopify’s significant value proposition to businesses across e-commerce enablement, Payments, and other merchant-oriented vectors.
The analysts believe the company enjoys a healthy pricing power and monetization model.
The firm though expects the company to continue to prioritize enhancing the merchant experience and capturing incremental GMV/GPV.
AI-related Cost HeadwindsThe analyst estimated that AI/token consumption could drive an 180 basis points and nearly 40 basis points year-on-year headwind to the company’s 2026 Subscription and Total Gross margins.
The firm expects Plus price increases to drive high-margin MRR and help offset AI-related cost headwinds.
Analyst considers Shopify to be well-positioned as an AI beneficiary with leadership across the three layers of the agentic commerce stack: Channels, On-Platform and Infrastructure.
He highlighted the introduction of Shop Pay on Muse, through which the buyer maintains control and Shopify enabled a connector that allows merchants to manage orders, inventory and analytics directly in Muse.
The firm remains bullish on stock and raised its second-half 2026 and 2027 estimates by ~1% to 3% across Revenue, ~1% to 2% across Gross Profit, and ~1% to 2% across FCF.
Earnings and Analyst OutlookWall Street expects Shopify to report third-quarter earnings of 46 cents per share, up from 34 cents a year earlier.
Revenue is projected to reach $3.75 billion, up from $2.84 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating, with an average price forecast of $171.38.
Recent analyst actions include RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating with a $200 price forecast on Oct. 16, Baird maintaining an Outperform rating and raising its forecast to $190 on Oct. 14 and Cantor Fitzgerald maintaining a Neutral rating with a $158 forecast on Oct. 12.
Technical AnalysisEven with Friday’s dip, Shopify is still in a firmly bullish longer-term structure.
The stock is trading 9.5% above its 20-day SMA ($158.10), 15.8% above its 50-day SMA ($149.42), and 33.4% above its 200-day SMA ($129.71).
The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, and the golden cross that occurred in August (50-day moving above the 200-day) continues to support the "uptrend intact" read on pullbacks.
Momentum has improved. The MACD is above its signal line, while the histogram is positive. Both indicators suggest buying momentum is strengthening.
Key Resistance: $182 — Round-number area sitting just below the 52-week high ($182.19) Key Support: $144 — prior buyer-defense zone Shopify Price ActionSHOP Price Action: Shopify shares were down 4.51% at $170.11 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Shopify turned a $1,000 bet into a life-changing fortune over ten years, but the path ran straight through a collapse that sent most investors sprinting for the exit. Whether today's entry point repeats that story or ends differently depends on…
From Storefront Builder to Commerce Operating System Ten years ago, Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) was a tool small merchants used to spin up online stores. It went public in May 2015, so this decade covers almost its entire life as a public company. Today it serves millions of businesses across 175+ countries, from first-time founders to brands like SKIMS and Supreme.
Most of the money now comes from Merchant Solutions, which covers payments, shipping and merchant lending that grow with sales volume. That segment grew 37% to $2.78B last quarter. Subscription fees grew 22%.
Pandemic Boom, Brutal Bust, Leaner Comeback The 2020 ecommerce surge drew heavy investor demand for Shopify, and the stock peaked in late 2021. Then the correction hit. Growth stocks dropped, and Shopify’s costly push into logistics weighed on results. From a split-adjusted high of about $176.29 in November 2021 to a low of $23.63 in October 2022, shares fell 86.6%. A 10-for-1 split took effect in the middle of the slide.
In 2023, management sold the Deliverr logistics business and went back to an asset-light platform. Growth picked up again. Revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $11.56B, up 30.1%, with $2.01B in free cash flow.
Your $1,000 Became $39,467.50, If You Started Early 1-Year Return
Initial Investment: $1,000 Current Value: $1,105.40 Total Return: 10.54% S&P 500 (same period): $1,157.30 (15.73%) 5-Year Return
Initial Investment: $1,000 Current Value: $1,186.30 Total Return: 18.63% Annualized Return: 3.48% S&P 500 (same period): $1,718.90 (71.89%) 10-Year Return
Initial Investment: $1,000 Current Value: $39,467.50 Total Return: 3,846.75% Annualized Return: 44.42% S&P 500 (same period): $3,596.10 (259.61%) The 10-year gain far outpaced the S&P 500, and the five-year window shows how much entry timing counted. Someone who bought in October 2021, close to the peak, trails the index by a wide margin. Shopify also fell behind the S&P 500 over the past year. To collect the decade’s gain, you had to hold through an 86.6% collapse (the kind of runner most investors walked past at the lows, a pattern we broke down in a free report on missed winners). You also had to sit through another drop this year to a 52-week low of $94 before shares climbed back to $169.
What Would Justify Putting $1,000 In Today A $1,000 investment in Shopify today could make sense if revenue growth above 30% can continue for years while margins keep expanding. The case weakens if a high valuation runs into slowing consumer spending.
On the positive side, Shopify has posted 11 consecutive quarters of 25%+ revenue growth. Its free cash flow margin reached 18%, and it launched a $2B buyback. Orders from AI channels tripled year over year, and management says Shopify has got less than 1% of global retail sales.
On the bear side, shares trade at about 171 times earnings and 105 times free cash flow. Transaction and loan losses rose to $141M from $80M a year earlier. GAAP results also swing hard on equity investment marks.
The business looks stronger than at any point in the last ten years. Even so, the stock has rebounded 26.22% in a month, and its history shows how violently this stock can dropped. Keep an eye on whether the stock holds its recent gains.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie Shopify uzavřely na rekordní hodnotě 179,22 USD, přestože objednávky generované AI zatím tvoří jen malou část celkového objemu. Tržby za 12 měsíců končících v červnu vzrostly na 13,3 mld. USD.
Shopify (SHOP -1.51%) stock closed at $179.22 on Monday, its first record close in nearly a year. But the margin was small -- just 21 cents over the e-commerce software company's prior best of $179.01, set on Oct. 29, 2025.
Plenty happened between the two closes. The growth stock shed nearly half its value by mid-May, closing as low as about $95, and it's gained about 88% since then. As I write this, shares trade right around Monday's level.
That means investors buying now pay almost exactly what buyers paid at the last record. What they get for that price, though, has changed.
Image source: Getty Images.
The record came without new resultsMonday's rise of nearly 5% capped a climb of around 18% over just six trading days. But it didn't come with any new numbers from Shopify. The company hasn't released financial results since Aug. 5, and its next report isn't due until Nov. 3.
Instead, shares seemed to get a boost from positive Wall Street comments on artificial intelligence (AI) shopping agents. They're programs that can find and buy items on a shopper's behalf. Shopify has spent this year making its merchants' products available to those agents, and AI-driven orders to Shopify stores in the second quarter were triple the year-ago level.
But management itself has been careful about how much this means so far.
"[W]hile the volume from agentic commerce is still small relative to our massive [gross merchandise volume], the growth trends are impressive," Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said on Shopify's second-quarter earnings call.
Put another way, the excitement that helped drive shares to a record is about a channel that still makes up a small slice of the sales on Shopify's platform. I think the stronger case for the stock is in the numbers the company has already released.
A bigger businessShowing how much Shopify has grown between those two records, its revenue in the 12 months through June was around $13.3 billion, up about a third from the 12 months before that. And growth has accelerated along the way. Year-over-year revenue growth over the past four quarters was 32%, 31%, 34%, and 34%. Management's guidance calls for growth in the low 30s again in the third quarter. For a business this big, holding above 30% for more than a year is impressive.
Profits are climbing even faster. Second-quarter operating income surged 68% year over year to $488 million, and free cash flow (cash flow from operations minus capital spending) rose 55% to $654 million. That was 18% of revenue, up from 16% a year earlier, but an accounting change boosted the latest quarter's free cash flow by $37 million.
In the trailing 12 months, free cash flow totaled almost $2.4 billion -- around 29% higher than Shopify had posted at this time last year.
Plus, Shopify's board raised the company's share buyback authorization to $5 billion in June.
Still too expensive?This all makes the stock cheaper than it was the last time it closed at this price. At the October 2025 record, Shopify's market cap was around 128 times its trailing-12-month free cash flow. Now, with a market cap of about $230 billion, it's about 98 times free cash flow. The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio (its price versus next year's expected earnings) is around 73.
But that doesn't make the stock cheap. A price of 98 times free cash flow arguably assumes years of fast growth. Even if Shopify's free cash flow rose 30% annually for three more years, today's market cap would still be around 45 times that bigger free cash flow number.
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After the October 2025 record close, shares dropped about 47% in a bit over six months, even though Shopify's revenue growth never slipped below 31% in that time. A stock this pricey might fall hard again even if the business keeps doing OK.
Also, management expects third-quarter gross profit to grow in the mid-to-high 20s. That's slower than revenue, mostly because lower-margin payments revenue keeps outgrowing subscriptions.
In the end, Shopify is a great business, and at around $179 a share it's arguably a better value than it was the last time it traded here. But I don't think even growth in the low 30s justifies paying 98 times free cash flow. For now, I think the stock is still too expensive to buy.
For most of this year, the bear case on Shopify was elegantly simple.
If shoppers stop browsing websites and start asking an AI agent to buy things for them, what happens to the company whose entire business is building and powering websites?
Storefronts become wallpaper. Shopify becomes a commodity back end. The stock spent nine months pricing in some version of that fear.
It's worth sitting with how real the concern felt. Shares ended August down 8% on the year while the S&P 500 had gained nearly 12%. For a company compounding revenue north of 30%, that gap isn't a valuation reset. That is the market quietly questioning whether the business model survives the decade.
Then September happened.
Image Source: StockCharts
The Meta DealBack in September, Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke announced that Meta Platforms' new Muse personal AI agent would be able to complete purchases across Shopify's entire merchant network using Shop Pay. Mark Zuckerberg's framing was characteristically compact: “Shoppers find more. Shops sell more.” He added that more partnerships like it were coming soon. SHOP closed up more than 7% the following session.
Two days later, Shop Pay went live as a wallet inside Muse. The detail that matters is the scope. This is not a pilot with a handful of flagship brands. It is agentic checkout across all Shopify stores.
Within the same stretch, Amazon moved to block that very same agent from its marketplace. Two of the largest commerce platforms in the world looked at AI shopping agents and reached precisely opposite conclusions. One saw a threat to the customer relationship it has spent thirty years building. The other saw distribution.
Why Shopify Gets Paid Either WayCFO Jeff Hoffmeister made the structural case at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia conference in September, and I'd argue it's the most important thing management has said all year. Shopify's economics do not depend on which AI assistant a shopper happens to open. Whether the journey begins in ChatGPT, in Copilot, or in Muse, if it ends at a Shopify checkout, Shopify gets paid.
That single observation reframes the entire debate. Shopify isn't competing with the agents for the customer. It is becoming the settlement layer underneath them — the rails rather than the destination. Rails are a less glamorous business than storefronts. They are also a far more durable one.
The behavioral data backs it up. Shoppers arriving from a large language model are 2.5 times more likely to land directly on a product page, which the company ties to roughly an 80% uplift in conversion. About 75% of AI-attributed orders in the second quarter came from outside Shopify's top 100 product categories.
Agents are not cannibalizing demand that merchants already had. They are surfacing the long tail that conventional search never served particularly well.
Earlier this month, Shopify extended the same logic in the other direction with Canvas, a tool that lets a merchant build a storefront by talking to Sidekick, the company's AI assistant, in roughly twenty minutes. Muse brings buyers in the front door. Canvas lowers the cost of becoming a merchant in the first place. Both ends of the funnel get cheaper at once.
The Numbers Behind the NarrativeNarratives are worth only what the financials support, so here is the arithmetic. Second-quarter revenue of $3.58 billion grew 34% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.36%. Earnings of $0.42 per share topped the $0.39 consensus by 7.69% and grew 20% from the $0.35 posted a year earlier. Gross merchandise volume reached $115.57 billion, up 32%. Free cash flow of $654 million came in 21% ahead of expectations at a margin above 18%.
Shopify has now beaten revenue estimates in each of the past 16 quarters. The earnings line has been less consistent, with two beats in four. It stems from management's willingness to spend against the opportunity in front of them, not from any softness in demand.
Looking ahead, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year stands at $1.89 per share on $15.19 billion in revenue. The third quarter, due in early November, carries a $0.45 consensus on $3.74 billion. Management has guided revenue growth to the low thirties, which sits comfortably above where the Street has modeled the quarter — a setup in which the bar may be lower than the business.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) carried a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) as of its most recent update, reflecting the favorable estimate revisions that preceded the August report.
Bottom LineWhat changed this fall was not Shopify's growth rate, which has been excellent throughout. What changed was the answer to the question hanging over the stock.
For nine months the market assumed AI agents would route around Shopify and strand it as infrastructure nobody sees. Meta's decision, and Zuckerberg's promise of more deals to come, points the other way entirely: the agents need somewhere to send the money, and Shopify already owns the checkout.
That is a materially different investment case than the one being priced in July, and the shares have only just begun to reflect it. The upcoming earnings report will tell us whether the fundamentals are moving as quickly as the narrative.
Akcie společnosti Shopify během pondělní seance vzrostly téměř o 5 % poté, co analytici Cantor Fitzgerald zvýšili cílovou cenu ze 145 USD na 158 USD a ponechali neutrální doporučení.
One of the best and most immediate boosts for a stock is a meaty price target increase by an analyst. That was the case with Shopify (SHOP +4.90%) on Monday, as such a lift helped improve investor sentiment on the online commerce facilitator. Its share rose by almost 5% that trading session as a result.
A 9% bump The researcher responsible for that increase was Cantor Fitzgerald, which now believes Shopify can reach $158 per share. Previously, its fair value assessment was $145. Cantor Fitzgerald didn't become notably more bullish because of this, however, as it maintained its neutral recommendation on the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
The firm updated its take on Shopify in advance of the company's third-quarter earnings release, slated for Tuesday, Nov. 3. According to reports, it expects the company to notch convincing beats on gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue, with the latter's growth coming in at the low 30% range.
That optimistic outlook is tempered by concerns about Shopify's artificial intelligence (AI) inference costs, which might be considerable and squeeze the company's margins. Cantor Fitzgerald also cautioned about Shopify's tilt toward merchant solutions, which are less profitable as a whole than the company's subscription solutions.
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Is it really good to be the king? To me (and many investors), Shopify is the undisputed king of online e-commerce facilitation. Its top line continues to expand impressively in a world where digital retailing isn't just a good idea, it's a necessity.
But there are downsides to the stock, and I feel that market players are right to be concerned. Profitability has been choppy, and valuations are very high for such bottom-line inconsistency. While the company surely has a prosperous future ahead, the stock looks pricey -- particularly after its recent surge.
Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Společnost Shopify ve druhém čtvrtletí meziročně zvýšila čistý zisk na akcii o 68 % na 1,16 USD, zatímco její tržby vzrostly o 34 % na 3,6 miliardy USD.
Shopify (SHOP +2.56%) stock has seen some volatile swings over the last five years. While the company's share price has been surging recently, it's still only up roughly 22% over the last half decade. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 79%, and the Nasdaq Composite has risen 90%.
But while the e-commerce services specialist's share price gains have lagged behind the broader market over that stretch, the fact that the company's net income per share increased 68% year over year in the second quarter to reach $1.16 is hard to ignore.
Image source: Getty Images.
Trading at roughly 67 times next year's expected earnings, Shopify undeniably has a growth-dependent valuation -- but recent momentum for earnings expansion has looked very encouraging. Crucially, the foundations needed to keep earnings growing at a strong clip appear to be in place.
Gross merchandise volume across Shopify's e-commerce platform increased 32% year over year to reach roughly $116 billion in the second quarter. In turn, this helped push revenue for the period up 34% year over year to $3.6 billion.
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Demand for the company's e-commerce services continues to look very strong, and Shopify should continue benefiting from new merchants joining its platform and scaling their operations. The company may also be in the early stages of benefiting from cost-cutting efficiencies and engagement tailwinds connected to artificial intelligence that can further support strong earnings growth.
Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Akcie Shopify od květnového minima vzrostly o 80 % a překonaly rezistenci na úrovni 221 USD. Tržby mají letos podle průměrného odhadu vzrůst o 31,9 % na 15,25 mld. USD.
Buy Shopify (SHOP). The stock broke key resistance ($221), invalidated the double-top, and is showing bullish continuation signals (golden cross, above Ichimoku cloud, PPO > 0). The Muse/Meta partnership strengthens the “agentic commerce” story: more AI-driven shopping should lift merchants’ activity, which increases Shopify’s take-rate and payment processing. Fundamentals are also improving (GMV and payment processing up sharply).
Key Risk: Valuation crush: SHOP’s forward P/E (~79) is so high that even “good” results or slower growth triggers a fast multiple contraction.
E-commerce software momentum
Buy Shopify’s ecosystem exposure via e-commerce software/merchant-enablement names (e.g., Square/Block (SQ) as a payments beneficiary, or a basket of high-quality e-commerce enablers). The news is a demand-side catalyst: if AI agents drive more transactions, payment volume and merchant tooling usage rise across the stack, not just on Shopify’s platform. Momentum is already working in SHOP; the second wave is broader payments/merchant adoption.
Key Risk: Platform share loss: merchants choose other platforms/tools for AI shopping, so transaction growth concentrates away from these beneficiaries.
Shopify stock has rebounded in the past few months, reaching its highest level since January 13 this year. It has soared by 80% from its lowest level in May, bringing its market capitalization to over $205 billion. This rally may continue after invalidating the double-top pattern at $158.
SHOP stock has been in an upward trend in the past few weeks, helped by its recent partnership with Meta Platforms. In a statement, Shopify said that users can use Muse to manage their stores, including adding products, collections, inventory, and orders. The partnership came after Amazon blocked Muse.
Investors believe that Shopify may benefit from the new era of agentic shopping as people will use these agents to shop. Indeed, data shows that traffic to American retail sites from AI sources has jumped by 393% this year, and this trend may continue.
Shopify will benefit from all this because it is the biggest provider of e-commerce software globally. Its business strategy involves making money by charging website owners a monthly free. In addition to this, the company makes money by taking a cut for all transactions made by the websites. As such, as agentic commerce grows, so does the commission it makes.
The most recent earnings report showed that its revenue and profits are doing relatively well and that more companies are moving to its platform. Some of the recent additions to the platform are Guess, Fred Segal, AVON, and Arhaus.
Its results showed that the GMV jumped to $116 billion from $101 billion in the first quarter and $88 billion in the same period last year. Its payment processing jumped to over $78 billion in the quarter from $36 billion in Q1’24.
Analysts expect that Shopify’s business will continue to grow in the near term. The average estimate is that its annual revenue will jump by 31.9% this year to $15.25 billion. After that, the company is expected to hit $19.1 billion. At the same time, its earnings per share (EPS) is expected to keep rising.
The main challenge that Shopify investors face is that its valuation has become elevated. It now has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 79.2, much higher than the technology sector average of 23. The multiple is also much higher than other companies, including faster growers like Micron and Nvidia.
These multiples likely explain why analysts have a mild outlook for the company. For example, Mizuho has a target of $180, while Wedbush has a target of $176.
SHOP stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the SHOP stock bottomed at $128.97 in May this year and then started an uptrend. This rally continued after it published its financial results in August this year.
The stock has now moved above the important resistance level of $221, its highest point on August 13. It has invalidated the double-top pattern whose neckline is at $171.30.
Shopify has also formed a golden cross pattern, a common bullish continuation sign. Also, it remains above the Ichimoku cloud indicator, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has moved above the zero line. Also, it formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
By invalidating the double-top pattern, chances are that it will continue rising, potentially to the psychological level of $250.
Shopify za poslední měsíc posílila o 10,4 %; Zacks jí udělil hodnocení Rank #2 (koupit), přestože se akcie obchoduje s prémií vůči srovnatelným společnostem.
Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this cloud-based commerce company have returned +10.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.8% change. The Zacks Internet - Services industry, to which Shopify belongs, has gained 2.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Shopify is expected to post earnings of $0.44 per share, indicating a change of +29.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.
The consensus earnings estimate of $1.89 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +61.5%. This estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.38 indicates a change of +25.8% from what Shopify is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.8%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for Shopify.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Shopify, the consensus sales estimate of $3.73 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +31.2%. The $15.18 billion and $18.84 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +31.3% and +24.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryShopify reported revenues of $3.58 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +33.7%. EPS of $0.42 for the same period compares with $0.35 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.43 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.36%. The EPS surprise was +7.69%.
Over the last four quarters, Shopify surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Shopify is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Shopify. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Internet, Everywhere, Oct. 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ, TSX: SHOP) plans to announce financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 before markets open on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Shopify’s management team will host a conference call to discuss third-quarter results at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The conference call will be available via webcast on the Investor Relations section of Shopify’s website at https://www.shopify.com/investors/events.
An archived replay of the webcast will be available following the conclusion of the call.
About Shopify
Shopify provides essential internet infrastructure for commerce. Shopify’s all-in-one platform makes it easier to start, run, and grow a business, powering sales online, in store, and everywhere in between. Millions of businesses in 175+ countries use Shopify—from entrepreneurs to brands like Aldo, BarkBox, Carrier, Meta, Vuori, SKIMS, and Supreme.
Akcie Shopify ve středu během dne vzrostly až o 7,5 % poté, co analytik společnosti Piper Sandler potvrdil doporučení „overweight“ a cílovou cenu 180 USD.
Shares of Shopify (SHOP +5.76%) charged sharply higher on Wednesday, surging as much as 7.5%. As of 2:38 p.m. ET, the stock was still up 5.3%.
The catalyst that sent the e-commerce platform provider higher was bullish commentary from a Wall Street analyst on the rising popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) agents and Shopify’s advantage.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Gains from AIPiper Sandler analyst James Callahan reiterated his overweight (buy) rating on Shopify while maintaining a $180 price target. Running the numbers suggests potential upside of 19% compared to Friday's closing price.
The analyst cites the increasing demand for agentic shopping tools imbued with artificial intelligence (AI), noting that agentic transactions are growing twice as fast as those involving large language models (LLMs) and that average order values are twice as much. He also suggests that migrations to Shopify's platform have "increased materially" as agentic shopping tools have grown in popularity.
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This relates to the recent rise of shopping by AI agents on behalf of users and Shopify's decision to embrace the trend. Late last month, CEO Tobi Lütke announced that the company was partnering with Meta Platforms to embed the company's Muse personal AI agent into Shopify's platform. For context, Amazon took another path, blocking Muse from its platform, claiming the AI agent violated its terms of use.
Shopify stock has been on fire recently, gaining 66% since mid-May. Furthermore, at 106 times earnings, the stock won't be for everyone. However, it's worth noting that that's a significant discount to its three-year average multiple of 171.
Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Shopify. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP)'s pursuit of nationwide money transmitter licensure could add roughly 2% to gross profit and 5% to operating income in 2028, according to an analysis from Jefferies.
In a research note, the firm called the licences a “logical next step” in the evolution of Merchant Solutions.
They would expand Shopify's ability to own and control the movement of merchant funds, unlocking new monetization opportunities, deeper merchant relationships and greater strategic leverage across the payments ecosystem.
Jefferies said the licensure would let Shopify directly hold and move merchant funds, a natural extension of Merchant Solutions that should lay the groundwork for a broader financial services platform, deepen merchant stickiness and position the company more firmly as a financial operating system.
The analysts split the financial opportunity into three buckets: float income earned on settlement and stored balances, recaptured partner economics, and monetization of future money movement products. Those benefits are partially offset by added compliance, risk, fraud and operational costs.
Jefferies said the opportunity is less about creating a new revenue stream overnight and more about increasing Shopify's participation in the economics generated across its existing ecosystem.
The firm also said the licences do not allow Shopify to originate loans using customer deposits or confer card-acquiring capabilities. It does not view the initiative as a strategy to replace Stripe or internalize the entire payments stack, and expects Shopify and Stripe to remain critical and synergistic partners.
If its base case plays out, Jefferies said, Shopify would sustain gross profit growth above 20% and operating income growth above 30% in 2028 without any other upside drivers.
It believes that level of growth at Shopify's scale would support a premium multiple, with the strategic optionality leaving room for additional upside down the road.
Key Takeaways Shopify's Merchant Solutions revenues jumped 37% to $2.78 billion in the second quarter.Shopify Payments penetration rose to 68% of GMV, with processed GMV climbing 38% to $78.1 billion.International GMV rose 37%, while B2B GMV surged 76%, expanding Shopify's merchant-services base. Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) is benefiting from strong growth in Merchant Solutions revenues, supported by rising Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), increasing Shopify Payments penetration and expanding adoption of its financial and commerce services. In the second quarter of 2026, Merchant Solutions revenues jumped 37% year over year to $2.78 billion, representing 78% of total revenues. Shopify’s overall GMV climbed 32% to $115.6 billion, providing a larger transaction base from which the company can generate payment processing, currency conversion, partner referral and other merchant-related revenues.
Shopify Payments remains the biggest driver. Payments penetration reached 68% of GMV in the second quarter, up from 64% a year earlier, while GMV processed through Shopify Payments increased 38% to $78.1 billion from $56.6 billion. The increase generated an additional $624 million in Shopify Payments revenues from payment-processing and currency-conversion fees. Steady expansion in payments penetration has been a key catalyst. Payments penetration has increased from 60% in the first quarter of 2024 to 68% in the second quarter of 2026.
International expansion offers significant growth opportunity. Shopify Payments is now available in 40 countries following its launch in the UAE, while penetration in Europe increased more than 350 basis points year over year. The company is also adding local payment methods, including in Mexico. Shop Pay GMV increased 53% year over year, supported by additional local payment options and growing adoption of Shop Pay Installments. Meanwhile, international GMV increased 37%, offline GMV rose 32% and B2B GMV surged 76%, widening the transaction base for Shopify’s merchant services.
Apart from payments, Merchant Solutions revenues are supported by Shopify Capital and other financial products, partner referral fees, shipping labels, POS hardware, App Store advertising and Shop Campaigns. Shopify’s agentic-commerce push could provide another longer-term tailwind. Management said AI-driven shopping still routes transactions through merchant infrastructure and Shop Pay, helping Shopify preserve its economics even as product discovery increasingly starts on AI platforms. This creates opportunities for rising merchant sales to continue translating into payments and other Merchant Solutions revenues.
Shopify Faces Tough CompetitionThe competitive intensity in the payments domain remains high for Shopify, with Block (XYZ - Free Report) and PayPal (PYPL - Free Report) standing out as key challengers.
PayPal is challenging Shopify’s merchant-solutions business by expanding beyond branded checkout into a broader payment-processing and value-added-services platform. Through Braintree, PayPal is targeting marketplaces, platforms and large e-commerce enterprises with payment processing, payouts, Risk as a Service, payment optimization and embedded-finance solutions. The company is also working to unify Braintree, PayPal Complete Payments and Hyperwallet onto a single foundation, which should make it easier for merchants to integrate and scale multiple payment capabilities.
Block is challenging Shopify through Square’s increasingly comprehensive payments and commerce ecosystem. The company has expanded field sales and has more than 200 active independent sales organization partners, helping it reach merchants beyond its traditional self-service customer base. Block is particularly pushing into larger sellers and the mid-market, where growth exceeded 20%, while strengthening its offerings across food and beverage, retail and services. Its platform combines payments with payroll, marketing, loyalty, Square Loans, Square Savings and credit-card offerings, increasing cross-selling opportunities.
SHOP’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShopify shares have lost 7.9% year to date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 21.3%.
SHOP’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify stock is overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 10.65X compared with the broader sector’s 6.14X. SHOP has a Value Score of F.
SHOP’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.89 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. This suggests 61.54% year-over-year growth.
Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Shopify umožní browserovým AI agentům dokončit nákupní proces na e-shopech obchodníků, včetně Shop Pay. Nově mohou číst checkout, upravit údaje a po autorizaci objednávku odeslat.
While some retailers, like Amazon (and Adidas, apparently!), are blocking AI agents from making purchases on users’ behalf on their respective platforms, e-commerce platform Shopify has moved in the other direction.
On Monday, the company announced that browser-based AI agents can now complete purchases on Shopify merchants’ sites, extending their capabilities beyond just searching for products and adding items to carts.
Shopify previously supported WebMCP for its storefronts and carts, allowing browser-based AI agents to comb through a Shopify retailer’s inventory, search for products, and add them to a cart. The addition of WebMCP support for checkout, including Shop Pay, means these agents can now read the checkout screen, update it, and submit the transaction with the buyer’s authorization, without relying on screenshots or scraping webpages, the company said.
Image Credits:Shopify This update introduces three new tools — get_checkout, update_checkout, and complete_checkout — that allow agents to inspect a checkout, change things like the customer’s address or delivery option, and then place an order after the buyer authorizes it.
The feature is rolling out to all eligible Shopify merchants, said Gil Greenberg, a staff product manager who works on agentic commerce at Shopify, in a post on X.
Shopping with an agent shouldn’t feel like watching paint dry. 🥱
Today, we’re launching WebMCP support for checkout, including Shop Pay, for all eligible Shopify merchants.
Learn how it works, where UCP fits, and what the data shows: https://t.co/U96VtJaeyc
— Gil (@gilgNYC) September 28, 2026 Shopify already offers a hosted Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, which allows agents to work server-to-server. The proposed standard WebMCP, meanwhile, is designed for agents that work inside the buyer’s browser. Both leverage Shopify’s Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), which provides a common way to search for and discover products, build carts, and check out.
Top AI agents like Muse and Instinct already have direct partnerships with Shopify for agentic commerce. The Instinct partnership was announced today.
“If your agent is operating in the buyer’s browser, use WebMCP tools provided on storefront and checkout to efficiently complete order placement, instead of navigating HTML built for humans,” Greenberg wrote on X. “These WebMCP tools provide structured and efficient APIs, purposely designed — via UCP — to ensure accurate commerce facts, required disclosures, and handoff requirements.”
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Sarah has worked as a reporter for TechCrunch since August 2011. She joined the company after having previously spent over three years at ReadWriteWeb. Prior to her work as a reporter, Sarah worked in I.T. across a number of industries, including banking, retail and software.
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Shopify ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 zvýšila tržby ze segmentu subscription solutions o 22 % na 802 milionů USD. Měsíční opakované výnosy vzrostly o 19,5 % na 221 milionů USD.
Key Takeaways Shopify's Q2 subscription revenues rose 22% to $802 million, while monthly recurring revenues gained 19.5%.Shopify benefits from merchant additions and upgrades, with scaled-merchant retention reaching as high as 97%.Shopify's AI push deepened as daily active Sidekick merchants grew 3.6 times year over year in the quarter. Shopify’s (SHOP - Free Report) prospects are being supported by solid growth in subscription solutions revenues, reflecting continued merchant additions, higher-value plans and deeper adoption of its commerce platform. In the second quarter of 2026, Subscription Solutions revenues increased 22% year over year to $802 million. Monthly recurring revenue rose 19.5% to $221 million, with Shopify Plus accounting for 34% of total MRR and also growing 19% year over year. This reflects healthy additions of new merchants as well as existing merchants upgrading to higher-tier plans as their businesses scale.
The expanding merchant base and Shopify’s ability to move customers up the value chain should continue to support subscription growth. The company is attracting merchants ranging from entrepreneurs to large enterprises, with Guess, Avon and Holt Renfrew among brands choosing Shopify during the second quarter of 2026. Management also highlighted strong retention among scaled merchants, with retention reaching 92% for merchants generating $1 million in annual Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and 97% for those exceeding $10 million. This increases opportunities to monetize merchants through higher-tier subscriptions and additional services as their businesses expand.
AI-driven product innovation is expected to further strengthen subscription revenues. Shopify is embedding tools such as Sidekick, Catalog and agentic-commerce capabilities into its platform, making the subscription offering more valuable to merchants. Daily active merchants using Sidekick increased 3.6 times year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while the platform handled nearly 34 million Sidekick conversations. Shopify’s unified platform also allows merchants to manage online stores, offline commerce, B2B, marketplaces and emerging AI channels from one infrastructure, supporting deeper customer relationships and potentially lowering churn.
Shopify Faces Tough CompetitionThe competitive intensity in e-commerce remains high for Shopify, with Commerce.com (CMRC - Free Report) and Wix.com (WIX - Free Report) standing out as key challengers.
Commerce.com, through its open, composable commerce architecture and growing focus on product intelligence, B2B and payments, is challenging Shopify. The company’s Feedonomics platform processes more than one trillion product listings each month and helps merchants structure, enrich and distribute product data across AI assistants, marketplaces, retail media and search engines. Commerce.com’s B2B capabilities represent another competitive pressure. B2B GMV increased 17% year over year in the second quarter, exceeding the platform’s overall 14% GMV growth, while management said B2B pipeline growth, win rates and gross retention were stronger than in B2C.
Wix is challenging Shopify primarily among small businesses, creators and agencies through its expanding AI-powered website and application-creation ecosystem. Wix Harmony combines AI with visual website creation, while BASE44 enables users to build applications and software through natural-language prompts. Wix is therefore positioning itself across both traditional website creation and emerging “vibe coding,” giving customers multiple ways to create and operate digital businesses. Wix is also broadening its competitive reach through headless commerce and deeper AI integration. The company has integrated Harmony with Gemini and is developing AI tools that handle increasingly complex business workflows, positioning Wix to compete with Shopify not only in storefront creation but also across the broader digital-business infrastructure layer.
SHOP’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShopify shares have lost 11.6% year to date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 22.7%.
SHOP’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify stock is overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 10.23X compared with the broader sector’s 6.22X. SHOP has a Value Score of F.
SHOP’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.89 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. This suggests 61.54% year-over-year growth.
Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Shopify v posledním obchodním dni klesla o 3,66 % na 142,33 USD a za měsíc ztratila 3,99 %. Investoři sledují nadcházející hospodářské výsledky, kde se očekává EPS 0,44 USD a tržby 3,73 miliardy USD.
Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $142.33, moving -3.66% from the previous trading session. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.76% for the day. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.68%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.13%.
Shares of the cloud-based commerce company witnessed a loss of 3.99% over the previous month, trailing the performance of the Computer and Technology sector with its gain of 6.68%, and the S&P 500's gain of 1.26%.
The upcoming earnings release of Shopify will be of great interest to investors. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.44, up 29.41% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $3.73 billion, indicating a 31.22% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $1.89 per share and a revenue of $15.18 billion, signifying shifts of +61.54% and +31.33%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Shopify. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.1% upward. Right now, Shopify possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Shopify is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 78.06. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 16.02.
It's also important to note that SHOP currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.31. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Internet - Services industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.67 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Internet - Services industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 181, finds itself in the bottom 27% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
Akcie Shopify v úterý ráno vyskočily na 148,01 USD, což odpovídá růstu o 7 %, poté, co Muse začala nakupovat v obchodech na Shopify a platit přes Shop Pay. Amazon se rally nezúčastnil.
Meta's Muse agent can now shop for you and check out on your behalf, but the company that quietly captured the transaction layer is not Meta. Here is why that detail is moving one stock sharply higher while leaving Amazon…
Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) is rallying in early Tuesday trading after news that Muse, the personal artificial intelligence (AI) agent from Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), can now browse Shopify-powered stores and complete purchases through Shop Pay. Shopify stock is at $148.01, up 7% in Tuesday morning trading, extending recent gains and reinforcing the view that Shopify’s payments layer is becoming the default checkout for third-party agent flows.
The catalyst reads as a company-specific bid rather than a sector move. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is at $741, down 0.06%, essentially flat as the large-cap technology tape sits out. Meta Platforms stock is at $737.30, down 0.53%, as the read-through on ceding the checkout layer to a partner introduces mild friction against Meta Platforms’ own commerce ambitions.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the study in contrast. Amazon stock is at $256.95, up 0.58%, effectively absent from the rally because Shopify’s push into agent-driven commerce does nothing for Amazon’s closed retail flywheel.
Muse Agent Meets Shop Pay Checkout Shopify and Meta Platforms announced Monday that Muse can browse Shopify-powered stores and complete purchases on a user’s behalf. The integration is built on Shop Pay, Shopify’s one-tap checkout service that retains a shopper’s payment and delivery details. Neither company disclosed financial terms, a revenue split, or a rollout timetable.
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg posted on X: “Teaming up with Shopify to make shopping and checkout easier in Muse. Shoppers find more. Shops sell more. More partnerships like this coming soon.” Shopify CEO Tobias Lutke described the deal on X as an easy and delightful way to shop and check out with Muse, while Meta Platforms Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang said the integration is meant to give Muse users a wider range of stores and products to choose from.
Shop Pay is Shopify’s crown jewel, and its inclusion inside Muse means agent-driven purchases route back through Shopify’s payments infrastructure by default. Deutsche Bank analysts characterized the deal as another sign that prominent artificial intelligence platforms are choosing to work inside Shopify’s commerce infrastructure. The note pointed to what Shopify does well: organizing product data, connecting merchants, processing payments through Shop Pay, and handling the back end of completed orders.
Meta Weighs Its Own Agent Ambitions The fade in Meta Platforms shares is subtle but telling. Meta Platforms is building its own AI-driven ad and commerce stack, and letting Shopify capture the checkout layer inside Muse means transaction economics are shared with a partner rather than kept in-house.
The bullish counter for Meta Platforms is that Muse benefits from adopting Shop Pay’s proven rails on day one instead of building competing plumbing. Zuckerberg’s promise of more partnerships to come frames checkout as a modular feature to plug in rather than a battle to pick right now. The market read on Meta Platforms this morning is friction, not damage.
Amazon Blocks the Bot Amazon has taken the mirror-image approach. The company moved to block Muse from completing purchases on its own site, showing a popup warning that access by an unauthorized agent violates its conditions of use, and has argued that Muse conceals its identity while navigating the site.
That posture is consistent with Amazon’s closed-loop model, where Prime, fulfillment, and Amazon’s own ad stack all depend on shoppers landing inside its walls. The bull case says Amazon doesn’t need third-party agents because it already owns the demand funnel end to end, while the bear read is that if agent-driven commerce becomes the default surface for a generation of shoppers, walling off the site risks trading share for control. Amazon’s barely-changed morning is the cleanest available read on which approach the morning tape is rewarding.
What to Watch Next Shopify’s move sits against a rich valuation and no disclosed economics from the Muse deal, which leaves the dollar value of agent traffic to Shopify merchants unproven for now. Investors can watch for whether Shopify and Meta Platforms follow up with a revenue split, a rollout timetable, or early transaction figures that would move the story from narrative to numbers.
Shareholders in Shopify should keep their position sizing modest given how much of today’s move is priced on optionality rather than reported results, and bulls may prefer adding on pullbacks rather than chasing the morning bid. Meta Platforms stockholders should apply the same discipline to their exposure, since the Muse partnership introduces execution risk on top of Meta Platforms’ existing AI capital cycle.
Traders could look for signs that follow-on partnership announcements from Meta Platforms land as Zuckerberg previewed, while bears facing Shopify’s rally should respect that Shopify’s rails, not those of its rivals, appear to be where agent commerce is routing today.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Shopify se za deset let téměř 31násobně zhodnotil a růst byznysu mu šel téměř stejným tempem. GMV v roce 2025 dosáhl 378 miliard USD a tržby 11,6 miliardy USD.
On Sept. 15, 2016, Shopify (SHOP -0.08%) stock closed at a split-adjusted $4.18 per share. As of this writing, shares trade around $130. That comes out to about 31 times the initial investment -- enough to make a $10,000 stake bought that day worth about $311,000 today.
And because Shopify does not pay a dividend, the share price did all the work.
For comparison, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.17%) had an outstanding decade of its own. The same $10,000 in an index fund that tracks the benchmark, with dividends reinvested, would have become about $41,000 during that period.
Most investors would be delighted with that outcome. Shopify's was more than seven times better.
But the return is not the most interesting part of this story. The most interesting part is what generated it. Shopify's business grew almost as much as its stock did.
Image source: Getty Images.
When Shopify closed the books on 2016, around 377,500 merchants were using its platform. In total, they sold $15.4 billion of goods that year (a number the company calls gross merchandise volume, or GMV), and Shopify brought in about $389 million of revenue, up 90% from 2015. Today, millions of merchants in more than 175 countries operate their businesses on Shopify. GMV hit $378 billion in 2025, nearly 25 times the 2016 figure. And revenue came to $11.6 billion, almost 30 times what it was in 2016.
Put another way, the stock's roughly 31-fold rise has mostly mirrored the growth of the business beneath it.
The growth keeps acceleratingNotably, the growth has not slowed down as the numbers have gotten bigger. GMV growth has accelerated for three years running, increasing from 12% in 2022 to 20% in 2023, 24% in 2024, and 29% in 2025. And the expansion is broad: offline revenue rose 27% in 2025, while international revenue rose 36%.
This year is off to an even faster start. In the second quarter, GMV rose 32% year over year to $115.6 billion. For perspective, merchants sold more than seven times as much on Shopify in one quarter this year as they did in all of 2016. Revenue grew 34% year over year to $3.6 billion. Free cash flow surged 55% year over year to $654 million.
GMV growth "accelerated on top of last year's already strong Q2 with solid results across all merchant sizes, channels, and geographies," chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister said in Shopify's August earnings release.
Profits showed up along the way, as well. In 2016, Shopify reported an operating loss of $37.2 million. In 2025, it produced operating income of $1.5 billion (up 37% from 2024) and more than $2 billion of free cash flow (cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures), good for a 17% free cash flow margin.
For a company still growing revenue about 30% a year, the profitability is arguably as remarkable as the growth. I've followed tech stocks for over 10 years, and few companies I've reported on have maintained growth like this at this size.
Too late to buy?Could the coming 10 years look anything like the last 10? I don't think investors should count on it.
Size is one reason. Percentage growth tends to get harder as the base expands, and Shopify's revenue base is now almost 30 times the size it was a decade ago.
Run the numbers on GMV and a repeat looks even harder. Equaling the last decade's nearly 25-fold increase would require merchants to sell more than $9 trillion of goods per year across the platform. Even a business executing this well could see its growth rates drift lower from here.
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The price is the other. Even with shares well below their 52-week high (off about 29%), the stock has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 53, based on the earnings per share it is expected to produce next year.
A price-to-earnings multiple that high only adds up if Shopify can keep growing quickly for years to come. Effectively, anyone buying today is paying now for growth the company hasn't achieved yet.
Granted, Shopify has cleared high bars before -- the past decade is the proof. And I think the business may well keep growing at an impressive rate. But the stock's valuation leaves little room for disappointment. In the end, I would wait for a lower price before buying the stock.
Shopify, Amazon i MercadoLibre čekají na silnou vánoční sezonu, která je pro jejich výsledky klíčová. Shopify loni získal ve 4. čtvrtletí 43 % provozního zisku za celý rok.
The holiday quarter starts in about two weeks. And for e-commerce companies, it's the three months that matter most. Consider Shopify (SHOP +0.08%). The e-commerce software company earned $631 million of operating income in last year's fourth quarter -- 43% of its operating income for all of 2025.
Amazon (AMZN -0.99%) and MercadoLibre (MELI +0.59%) lean on the season, too, though not nearly as hard. Notably, all three companies close their books on Dec. 31, so the December quarter is the fourth quarter for each.
Here's a closer look at all three stocks ahead of the season.
Image source: Getty Images.
The biggest holiday swingShopify's concentration isn't a one-off. The fourth quarter delivered 43% of the company's operating income in both 2025 ($631 million of $1.47 billion) and 2024 ($465 million of $1.08 billion). Not only is the holiday quarter the company's biggest for revenue (about 32% of 2025's total), but it's also the year's most profitable by a wide margin. Operating expenses don't rise with the holiday rush the way merchant sales do, so much of the season's extra gross profit can turn into operating income.
And I think this year's setup looks even better. Second-quarter gross merchandise volume (the value of goods sold across the platform) rose 32% year over year, a fifth straight quarter of growth above 30%. Operating income climbed 68% to $488 million. In fact, profit growth has been accelerating: Operating income rose 37% in 2025, and it's rising much faster this year. For the third quarter, management guided for revenue growth in the low-thirties percentage range.
The problem, however, is the stock's price.
Shopify shares have pulled back sharply, from a 52-week high above $182 to about $130 as of this writing. Yet the stock still costs about 53 times what the company is expected to earn next year.
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Amazon's holiday quarter matters less than it used toThe e-commerce giant still gets a seasonal lift. Fourth-quarter operating income of $25 billion last year was about 31% of the full-year total of $80 billion, a share almost unchanged from 2024. But Amazon's profit engine is increasingly its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, which doesn't depend on the shopping calendar.
Profit growth is accelerating, too. Operating income rose 17% in 2025, then rose 43% to $27.5 billion in this year's second quarter. And for the third quarter, management guided for operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, up from $17.4 billion a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the company is stretching the season. This week, Amazon set its Prime Big Deal Days sale for Oct. 6 and 7, which could pull holiday spending into the quarter's first week.
Shares trade near $248 as of this writing, or around 24 times Amazon's expected earnings per share for next year, the lowest price-to-earnings multiple of the three.
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MercadoLibre spends the season buying growthThe Latin American e-commerce and fintech company runs the holidays differently.
Its fourth-quarter revenue jumped 45% year over year to $8.8 billion in 2025, the company's biggest quarter of the year. Yet income from operations of $889 million was only 28% of the 2025 total, down from a 31% share in 2024.
That wasn't an accident. Management said it made "tactical investments to reinforce Mercado Libre as the primary destination for demand during peak season" -- in other words, it spent on free shipping, marketing, and credit cards to capture holiday shoppers.
And the spending hasn't let up. Second-quarter revenue soared 50% year over year to $10.2 billion, while the operating margin narrowed to 6.7%, from 9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (excluding a one-time tax credit in that quarter). Management is deliberately trading near-term margin for growth.
MercadoLibre's stock trades at about 33 times the profit it's expected to produce next year. For a company growing revenue 50%, the price is arguably fair, if the spending eventually pays off.
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Which would I buy before October?Ultimately, Amazon is my first pick. Its profits lean less on the season than Shopify's (the cloud earns all year), and its shares carry the lowest price-to-earnings multiple of the three.
MercadoLibre is a close second. Margins may stay under pressure through the holidays (that's the plan, after all), but revenue growing 50% covers a lot of spending. I'd buy it, too, though I'd keep the position smaller.
Shopify is the group's best pure holiday story, and the most concentrated payoff sits just ahead. The growth is exceptional, to be sure. But a price of about 53 times forward earnings already assumes years of quarters like these.
Of course, a weak holiday season would hurt all three -- Shopify most of all. I would hold off on Shopify shares at this price.
Meta spustila AI agenta Muse, který může nakupovat za uživatele bez návštěvy webu obchodníka; Shopify je v transakčním toku, ale Shop Pay je zatím jen plánovaná integrace. Shopify uvádí, že tradiční vyhledávací relace jsou za poslední dva roky 1,3× vyšší a že AI řízený provoz i objednávky do obchodů na Shopify meziročně ztrojnásobily. Společnost zároveň tvrdí, že agentické transakce mají stejné ekonomické podmínky: „Nejsou tam žádné nové poplatky. Neexistuje žádné samostatné nacenění.“
Meta's new AI shopping agent can place orders on a shopper's behalf without them ever visiting a merchant's website, and Shopify sits right in the middle of that transaction flow. Whether that position is a windfall or a slow erosion…
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Shopify (NYSE:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) shares are down 19.33% year to date, trading near $129.86 against a market cap of roughly $158.4 billion. That drawdown sets the stage for a genuinely interesting question raised by Meta (NASDAQ:META)’s launch of Muse, a personal AI agent that browses and acts on a shopper’s behalf through the Muse app or WhatsApp.
Purchases through Muse require user approval, and Stripe’s Link handles checkout at launch. The announcement describes Shop Pay as a planned addition rather than a live integration. Barron’s framed the launch as good news for Shopify, but the argument only works conditionally: a shopper could authorize an order routed through an agent without ever loading the merchant’s storefront, and Shopify’s job is to keep the checkout and payment layer even though it does not own the assistant.
What the Announcement Actually Establishes The agent can browse a merchant site when the human does not. The user approves, so no purchase completes silently.
Shop Pay remains a planned addition, not a live integration. Coverage that skips that distinction is describing a roadmap.
Shopify’s own framing on the August 5, 2026 call was expansive but careful: “Whether commerce is handled by humans or agents, whether stores are built by people or AI, Shopify runs underneath it all.” That is a claim about infrastructure, not evidence that Muse is already routing dollars through Shop Pay.
When an assistant sits between shopper and store, discovery moves to the agent. The merchant keeps the sale but loses the browsing session, the merchandising surface, and the behavioral data that shapes remarketing.
Attribution becomes genuinely hard in that arrangement, because a click that never lands on a product page cannot be tagged the way a paid search visit can. That matters when a merchant decides where to spend marketing budget.
Shopify argues the traffic is additive rather than substitutional, noting that traditional search sessions are up 1.3x over the past two years and that AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores tripled year over year. Whether Muse extends that pattern or cannibalizes it is the open question.
Payment Economics, and What Is Not Known Standard Shop Pay transactions run on merchants’ existing Shopify Payments rates. That tells you nothing about the commercial terms of an agent-routed order, and those terms are undisclosed.
Management insists agentic transactions carry the same economics: “There’s no new fees. There’s no separate pricing.” That comment covered Shopify’s own agent surfaces, not a third-party integration with Meta.
The adoption counterweight is timing. Reuters reported reliability and privacy problems in internal tests of Muse, which gives reason to doubt the rollout schedule while leaving Shop Pay’s economics untouched.
Bull and Bear Case for SHOP Stock The bull case is that Shopify’s $115.57 billion in quarterly GMV and $400 billion lifetime Shop Pay volume make it the default checkout for any assistant that wants to transact reliably, and that 37% Merchant Solutions growth proves the transaction layer is where value accrues.
The bear case is priced in the multiple. At a P/E near 129x against 2027 EPS estimates averaging $2.4596, the stock already assumes Shopify wins the agent layer, so a slower Muse rollout or an agent-driven margin renegotiation could compress the multiple faster than GMV grows.
The variable that decides between them is whether the Shop Pay integration ships on Shopify’s terms. Until it does, the story remains a probability rather than a P&L line.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
E-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP -0.54%) is doing something big companies rarely do: growing faster as it gets bigger. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), the dollar value of everything its merchants sell through the platform, grew 12% in 2022 and has accelerated every year since -- 20%, then 24%, then 29% in 2025. And 2026 is running faster still.
However, the stock hasn't followed the same line. It trades around $148 as of this writing, about 19% off its 52-week high of $182.19.
Where will Shopify stock be in five years? I think it hinges on a few numbers the company reports every quarter -- how fast volume grows, how much of it Shopify keeps, and how much of that turns into cash. It also hinges on how much of all that is already in the price.
Image source: Getty Images.
Faster every yearShopify's second-quarter report, released in early August, extended the pattern. Revenue climbed 34% year over year to $3.6 billion, the second straight quarter of 34% growth, and GMV rose 32% to $115.6 billion.
For scale, Shopify estimates its merchants handled more than 14% of U.S. e-commerce in 2025.
"GMV growth accelerated on top of last year's already strong Q2 with solid results across all merchant sizes, channels, and geographies," said chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister in the second-quarter earnings release.
Of course, a five-year view also has to account for artificial intelligence (AI). If AI shopping tools help merchants sell more, volume per merchant can keep climbing. If they mostly make it easier for anyone to launch a competing storefront, they raise competition among Shopify's merchants instead.
The reported figures don't settle it yet.
Can Shopify keep more of each dollar?Volume only matters to shareholders after Shopify takes its cut. The company's take rate, or revenue as a share of GMV, came to about 3.1% last quarter. That was a touch higher than a year earlier, as merchants adopted more of its services.
Merchant solutions revenue (payments and the other services merchants pay for as they sell) rose 37% year over year to $2.8 billion, while subscription revenue grew 22% to $802 million. Merchant solutions now make up about 78% of total revenue. Notably, those are lower-margin dollars. Gross margin there runs near 38%, versus about 80% on subscriptions. That mix is why gross profit rose 31% last quarter, trailing revenue's 34% growth -- a gap management expects again in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, cost discipline has more than made up for the cheaper revenue mix. Not only did operating income rise 68% year over year to $488 million, but free cash flow margin (free cash flow as a percent of revenue) also climbed to 18%, after 16% a year earlier and 15% in the prior quarter.
Investors are already paying for years of growthThe trouble is that none of it is a secret. At a market cap near $190 billion, Shopify trades at about 14 times its trailing-12-month sales, about 80 times its free cash flow over the same period, and about 60 times its expected adjusted 2027 earnings.
To justify those multiples of sales and cash flow, Shopify would need years of strong execution. If GMV compounds at 20% annually for five years (slower than today's pace), volume would reach about $1.1 trillion, from about $432 billion over the past year. A take rate near 3.1% turns that into revenue of around $33 billion. And if free cash flow margin climbs from 18% to 25%, Shopify would produce roughly $8 billion of cash in year five.
Today's market cap is still about 23 times that year-five cash flow. Five years of very good execution, in other words, gets a buyer to a valuation that is arguably just reasonable.
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A materially higher stock needs more than that. GMV growth could hold near 30% for the full five years, which would put revenue around $50 billion and free cash flow above $12 billion at that same 25% margin. At today's price, that outcome would work out to about 15 times year-five cash flow, cheap enough to leave room for the stock to climb.
Additionally, the take rate may keep inching higher as merchants adopt more services, raising revenue without another dollar of volume. Both are possible. But neither is the kind of assumption I'd want my returns to depend on.
Ultimately, I expect Shopify to be a much bigger business in five years. But I don't expect the stock to climb nearly as fast as the business grows, because so much of that growth is already reflected in the price.
I'm not buying the stock at today's price. If shares pull back meaningfully, or a few more quarters show the take rate and free cash flow margin climbing together, I'd take another look.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Shopify due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Shopify Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Shopify Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise on Strong GMV GrowthShopify reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.69%. The figure increased 20% year over year.
Revenues jumped 33.7% year over year to $3.58 billion and surpassed the consensus mark by 4.36%.
The upside reflected broad-based Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth and higher payments penetration. GMV increased 31.6% to $115.57 billion, while Shopify Payments penetration expanded three percentage points to 68% of global GMV.
SHOP’s Merchant Solutions Revenue JumpsMerchant Solutions revenues increased 37.4% year over year to $2.78 billion. Growth was primarily driven by higher GMV, increased payments penetration and strength in partner revenue shares and financial services.
Shopify Payments expanded into the United Arab Emirates, bringing availability to 40 countries. Payments penetration in Europe rose more than 350 basis points (bps), supported by newer market launches and additional local payment methods.
Shop Pay GMV advanced 53% year over year. Shopify added more local payment options to Shop Pay and continued expanding installment adoption, giving buyers additional ways to complete purchases.
Shopify’s Subscription Business Maintains MomentumSubscription Solutions revenues rose 22% year over year to $802 million. Standard-plan monthly subscriptions were the largest growth contributor, supported by strong merchant net additions.
Monthly recurring revenue increased 19% year over year to $221 million. Plus represented 34% of MRR and also grew 19%, reflecting continued demand from larger and more complex merchants.
SHOP’s Commerce Channels Deliver Broad GrowthInternational GMV advanced 37%, while North America GMV grew 28%. Europe posted 34% constant-currency GMV growth, highlighting continued geographic breadth.
Offline GMV climbed 32% and B2B GMV surged 76%. Shopify expanded native B2B capabilities beyond Plus, allowing more merchants to manage wholesale and direct-to-consumer operations from the same administration platform.
The company also added or expanded relationships with brands including Holt Renfrew, Guess, Avon, Arhaus and Canada Goose. These wins support Shopify’s unified-commerce push across online, physical retail and wholesale channels.
Shopify’s AI Tools Gain Merchant AdoptionAI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores tripled year over year. New-buyer orders from AI channels came in at nearly twice the rate of other channels, while 75% of AI-attributed orders originated outside the top 100 product categories.
Sidekick handled nearly 34 million conversations during the quarter. Daily active merchants using the tool increased 3.6-fold, daily sessions rose 4.8-fold, and merchants created more than 36,000 custom apps, up from 12,000 in the prior quarter.
Shopify’s Catalog contains more than 1 billion products. AI searches powered by Catalog converted at twice the rate of searches relying on scraped data, demonstrating the value of accurate and structured product information.
SHOP’s Profitability Benefits From Operating LeverageGross profit increased 31.2% year over year to $1.71 billion.
Merchant Solutions gross profit rose 39%, with margin improving slightly as growth in higher-margin revenue streams offset pressure from increased payments volume. Subscription Solutions gross margin remained just below 80%, in line with the first quarter. Shopify maintained that level despite increased Sidekick usage, reflecting cost efficiencies as adoption of the AI assistant scaled.
Operating expenses were $1.22 billion, or 34% of revenues, compared with 37.7% a year earlier. Sales and marketing represented less than 14% of revenues, improving about 160 bps.
Operating income increased 47% to $623 million as gross profit dollars grew faster than expenses. Transaction and loan losses were 3.9% of revenues, with Shopify Capital serving as the largest driver during the quarter.
Shopify’s Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Stay StrongShopify ended the quarter with $1.66 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $3.29 billion in marketable securities. Loans and merchant cash advances totaled $2.18 billion, while the company repurchased $1.42 billion of common stock.
Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $658 million from $428 million. Free cash flow rose to $654 million from $422 million, while the free cash flow margin expanded to 18% from 16%.
SHOP’s Q3 Outlook Signals Continued ExpansionFor the third quarter of 2026, Shopify expects revenue growth in the low-30% range. Gross profit dollars are projected to increase in the mid-to-high-20% range.
Operating expenses are expected to equal 33% to 34% of revenues. Free cash flow margin is projected in the high-teens to low-20% range, including less than one percentage point of benefit from the merchant cash advance accounting change.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
VGM ScoresAt this time, Shopify has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. However, the stock has a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Shopify has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Shopify oznámila, že její B2B GMV ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 meziročně vzrostlo o 76 %, zatímco celkový GMV stoupl o 32 %. Firma zároveň rozšířila nativní B2B nástroje mimo Shopify Plus.
Key Takeaways Shopify's B2B GMV jumped 76% year over year in Q2 2026, outpacing overall GMV growth of 32%.Shopify expanded native B2B tools beyond Plus, giving more merchants unified wholesale and DTC operations.Large retailers and cross-selling across Shopify's platform could support continued B2B growth. Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) is seeing strong growth in its business-to-business (B2B) commerce operations. B2B Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew 76% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, well above Shopify’s overall GMV growth of 32%. The growth also continued from the prior quarter, showing that B2B is becoming an important part of Shopify’s business.
Shopify is also expanding its B2B offering to support this growth. During the second quarter, the company extended its native B2B capabilities beyond Shopify Plus for the first time. This allows more merchants to manage wholesale and direct-to-consumer operations through the same Shopify admin. The company believes this can reduce the need for separate tools and custom workflows.
Another factor supporting B2B growth is Shopify’s ability to sell more products to existing merchants. Arhaus, for example, started with Shopify online and has since expanded into point-of-sale, B2B and Shopify Payments. Management stated that it is seeing more success with this type of cross-sell model as merchants add more channels and services over time.
Large retailers could also provide room for further B2B growth as large and complex retailers are the company’s fastest-growing segment. Shopify continues to add well-known brands to its platform, which should help the company benefit from merchants that are increasingly looking for a unified system that can support different sales channels.
Sustaining 76% B2B GMV growth could become difficult as the business gets larger. Still, the expansion of B2B tools beyond Plus, growing adoption among larger retailers and increased cross-selling across Shopify’s platform provide support for continued growth. With total GMV reaching $116 billion in Q2, B2B could become an increasingly important contributor to Shopify’s overall growth if these trends continue.
Shopify Faces Tough CompetitionShopify faces stiff competition from the likes of eBay (EBAY - Free Report) and Etsy (ETSY - Free Report) in the e-commerce industry.
eBay is working to make its marketplace more attractive to sellers and buyers through AI, shipping and payments. Its AI-powered listing tools are helping sellers create listings faster, while agentic search is being tested to improve product discovery across more than 2.6 billion listings. eBay delivered strong second-quarter 2026 results, with GMV rising 14% year over year to $22.4 billion and revenues increasing 14% to $3.13 billion. Its growth was supported by focused categories, C2C and recommerce, which together accounted for more than 70% of GMV and each grew more than 20%.
Etsy is investing in personalization, search and AI to improve buyer engagement and help sellers reach the right customers. The company is using machine learning across discovery, matching and personalization, with richer buyer profiles covering more than 65 million buyers. Its efforts have helped app GMS growth accelerate to 12.5% year over year. In the second quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS increased 7.5% year over year to $2.6 billion, marking the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year GMS growth. Active buyers increased 350,000 sequentially to about 87 million, while GMS per active buyer rose 2.8% year over year to $124.
SHOP’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShopify shares have lost 5% year to date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 17.1%.
SHOP’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify stock is overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 11.18X compared with the broader sector’s 6.18X. SHOP has a Value Score of F.
SHOP’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.89 per share, revised up by 5 cents over the past 30 days. This suggests 61.5% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Shopify ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 34 % na 3,58 miliardy USD a objednávky z AI i návštěvnost meziročně ztrojnásobil. Akcie jsou letos stále níže o méně než 10 %.
After a rough start to the year for its stock, Shopify (SHOP +2.80%) shares have come roaring back, bolstered by its latest earnings report. After falling to a low of $94, the stock is once again nearing $150 and is down less than 10% year to date.
Dubbed a potential AI loser earlier this year, Shopify is flipping the script, showing it has the potential to be a big AI winner with agentic commerce. This all starts with its Shopify Catalog, which is built on the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) that it co-developed with Alphabet and others. Shopify Catalog structures product information and maps it to a standard product taxonomy (organizing items by shared categories and attributes) that feeds the product data into AI search engines, shopping apps, and agentic storefronts. Or said another way, Shopify is taking billions of products and simplifying them into an AI-ready database.
Dozens of retailers and platforms have already adopted UCP, which was introduced at the start of the year, and AI searches powered by Catalog are converting at twice the rate as scraped data. Meanwhile, Shopify saw AI-driven orders and traffic triple year over year in the second quarter. At the same time, its AI tools, led by its Sidekick AI assistant, have been seeing strong adoption, with Sidekick usage increasing 3.6 times among merchants.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Shopify's core business remains strong While agentic AI represents a huge opportunity, the company's overall business continues to thrive. Its Q2 sales soared 34% year over year to $3.58 billion, surpassing the $3.45 billion consensus analyst estimate.
Meanwhile, its underlying metrics also look strong across the board. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) on its commerce platform increased by 32% year over year to $115.57 billion, with North American GMV rising 28% and European GMV climbing 34% in constant currencies. Business-to-business GMV, meanwhile, soared 76%, while offline GMV jumped 32% and Shop App GMV grew 70%.
Overall, merchant solution revenue (payment processing fees, Shopify Shipping, and other merchant services) jumped by 37% year over year to $2.78 billion. Subscription revenue increased by 22% to $802 million, led by its standard plan. Monthly recurring revenue (MRR), which is the value of all its subscription plans at period end, grew by 19% to $221 million.
Shopify Payments continues to see strong adoption, accounting for 68% of its global GMV in the quarter. It is now available in 40 countries, while it saw a 350-basis-point increase in Europe.
While traditionally known as a solution for small and mid-sized brands and retailers, Shopify continues to attract large brands, once again adding some well-known brands like Guess, Aritzia, and Avon to its platform. The company said large brands are increasingly choosing it for its unified commerce capabilities and speed to market.
Looking ahead, Shopify forecasts Q3 revenue to grow in the low 30% range and gross profit to rise in the mid- to high 20% range.
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Can the stock keep its momentum? Shopify looks like one of the companies best positioned for agentic commerce. It isn't just adapting to agentic commerce; it is actively defining the protocol layer (UCP) and API infrastructure (Catalog) that make conversational shopping possible.
The Shopify Catalog can provide the trustworthy, structured data that AI commerce agents require to perform optimally, positioning the company to be the leader in this emerging field. And while there is always the risk of frontier AI model companies looking to bypass this layer, Shopify's ingrained platform and AI model-agnostic approach should prove to be an advantage.
Shopify's platform is one of the true independent alternatives that retailers and brands can turn to in order to compete against Amazon, which should help it continue to drive strong growth. Its position in agentic commerce, meanwhile, only makes its platform all the more valuable.
Trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 10 based on 2027 analyst projections, this growth stock remains attractive given its consistent 30%-plus revenue growth and agentic AI prospects.
Shopify uvedla, že návštěvnost přivedená přes AI k obchodům obchodníků se meziročně ztrojnásobila a objednávky z AI vyhledávání také. Noví zákazníci z AI kanálů objednávali téměř dvojnásobně častěji než z jiných kanálů.
The bear case on Shopify (SHOP +2.80%) over the past year has been simple. If artificial intelligence (AI) agents start doing the shopping, they could come between merchants and their customers, cutting the e-commerce platform behind those merchants' storefronts out of the transaction. Coming into this week's report, shares sat about 32% below their 52-week high.
Then the company reported its second quarter on Wednesday. AI-referred traffic to merchants' storefronts tripled year over year. Orders that began with an AI search tripled, too. And new buyers arriving through AI channels placed orders at nearly twice the rate of other channels.
In short, the technology that was supposed to cut Shopify out is, so far, sending it customers. The market noticed, and shares jumped about 17% on the report, to about $144 as of this writing.
So, was the AI-casualty thesis simply wrong?
Image source: Getty Images.
What the quarter showed The AI figures came on top of a quarter that was strong in the ordinary ways. Revenue rose 34% year over year to $3.6 billion, matching the first quarter's pace. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), the total value of goods sold across Shopify's platform, reached $115.6 billion, up 32% year over year and up from $100.7 billion just one quarter earlier. Operating income climbed 68% to $488 million. And free cash flow was $654 million, with the margin expanding to 18% from 15% in the first quarter.
"This was a monster quarter," president Harley Finkelstein said in the earnings release.
The AI detail is what makes this report different, though. Half of AI-referred sessions land directly on a product page (2.5 times the rate of traditional search, the company said), meaning these shoppers arrive closer to a purchase. What's more, 75% of AI-attributed purchases came from outside the top 100 product categories, a sign the traffic is reaching niche merchants, not just the biggest brands.
The new-buyer figure matters most to me. Merchants pay Shopify to help them find customers. And a channel that delivers first-time buyers at nearly twice the usual rate gives merchants one more reason to stay.
Shopify is also building for the agents directly. AI search powered by the company's product catalog converts at twice the rate of AI search built on scraped data, according to the company. And Sidekick, Shopify's AI assistant for merchants, saw daily active merchants grow 3.6 times year over year.
The old channel isn't shrinking either. Finkelstein said traditional search sessions have grown 1.3 times over the past two years and still account for about a third of storefront sessions. AI traffic is coming on top of search, not instead of it.
How big the AI channel actually is What Shopify didn't disclose is how much money the AI channel drives. The company gave growth rates (tripled, twice the rate) but no dollar figure for AI-referred GMV and no share of the $115.6 billion total.
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Of course, growth rates like these usually sit on small bases. Traffic that triples from a sliver is still a sliver. These numbers are an early indicator, not the thing paying the bills. And the channel isn't Shopify's to control. The agents belong to other companies, and the terms of that traffic could change.
Still, the core business is why the AI debate matters less than it might seem. Revenue growth stepped up from 27% in early 2025 to 34% in each of this year's first two quarters, and management guided third-quarter revenue to grow at a low-thirties percentage rate year over year, so it expects only a slight step down this quarter. Monthly recurring revenue reached $221 million, up from $212 million one quarter earlier. Whatever AI shopping becomes, the business underneath it is compounding at scale.
That leaves the price. After the jump, shares trade at about 70 times forward earnings. That multiple was arguably harder to defend when the AI-casualty worry hung over the business, and this quarter took a lot of that worry off the table. But it also means the growth has to keep coming.
So, does the quarter make the growth stock worth buying at this new price? If I owned it, I wouldn't sell after a report like this one. I think it answered the year's biggest doubt about the business. But calling it a buy probably isn't wise, either. At its high valuation, the price now arguably reflects the good news that arrived this week. I'd wait for a better entry point.
Shopify vykázala upravený zisk 42 centů na akcii a tržby 3,58 miliardy USD, obojí nad odhady. Na třetí čtvrtletí čeká růst tržeb v nízkých 30 % a výhled také překonal konsensus.
The company reported adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, topping the analyst consensus estimate of 40 cents. Revenue increased 34.3% year over year to $3.58 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.45 billion.
Shopify expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to grow in the low-30% range year over year. The guidance implies revenue of approximately $3.73 billion to $3.78 billion, above the analyst consensus estimate of $3.59 billion.
“This was a monster quarter: more than 30% growth in GMV AND revenue AND gross profit AND free cash flow,” said Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify. “We power every kind of business, and with AI, we’re expanding what’s possible for all of them. No one else comes close.”
Shopify shares fell 0.8% to $143.05 in pre-market trading.
These analysts made changes to their price targets on Shopify following earnings announcement.
Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges maintained the stock with a Buy and raised the price target from $170 to $194. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan maintained the stock with a Neutral and raised the price target from $127 to $145. Considering buying SHOP stock? Here’s what analysts think:
Photo via Shutterstock
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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call August 5, 2026 8:30 AM EDT
Company Participants
Shane Kleinstein
Harley Finkelstein - President
Jeff Hoffmeister - Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Hoi-Fung Wong - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Bryan Smilek - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Michael Morton - MoffettNathanson LLC
Terrell Tillman - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Adam Wood - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Deepak Mathivanan - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Thomas Ingham - CIBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Gabriela Borges - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Arjun Bhatia - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division
Presentation
Shane Kleinstein
Good morning, and thank you for joining Shopify's Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. I'm Shane Kleinstein, Director of Investor Relations. And joining us today are Harley Finkelstein, Shopify's President; and Jeff Hoffmeister, our CFO.
After their prepared remarks, we will open it up for your questions. Today's call will include certain forward-looking statements that are based on assumptions and therefore, subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements, except as required by law. You can read about these assumptions, risks and uncertainties in our press release this morning as well as in our filings with the U.S. and Canadian regulators. We'll also speak to adjusted financial measures and other non-GAAP measures, which are not a substitute for GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between the two are provided in our press release.
And finally, we report in U.S. dollars, so all amounts discussed today are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Harley.
Harley Finkelstein
President
Good morning, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We've got another exceptional quarter to talk
Shopify uvedla, že AI vyhledávání zvyšuje návštěvnost i objednávky; návštěvnost z AI vyhledávání a objednávky se ve 2. čtvrtletí meziročně ztrojnásobily. Tržby vzrostly o 36 % na 3,6 miliardy USD.
E-commerce software maker Shopify seems to be benefiting handily from people using AI to search.
On the company’s second-quarter earnings call, Shopify President Harley Finkelstein said AI has become a “complement to search, rather than a substitute for it,” and had particularly benefited the long tail of e-commerce, including the smaller merchants that make up the majority of its customer base. Indeed, the company credited its earnings beat and soaring revenue to AI search, at least partly.
This is quite different from how AI is impacting online publishing, where AI summaries have led to a measurable drop in click-through rates, which lowers traffic and consequently eats into advertising revenues.
Instead, Shopify believes that AI is a boon to its business. The company noted that AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores had tripled year-over-year in the second quarter.
And, this was not a result of AI taking share from search. “In fact, search remains one of our largest sources of buyer traffic to our merchants, and it’s still growing,” Finkelstein told analysts on the call. “Traditional search sessions are up 1.3x over the past two years, holding roughly a third of all storefront sessions.”
The e-commerce platform reported strong results in the quarter, with revenue rising 36% to $3.6 billion from a year earlier, outstripping Wall Street’s forecast of $3.4 billion. Gross operating profit rose 31% to $1.71 billion, also ahead of analysts’ expectations of $1.63 billion.
The company went into further detail about why AI search was working for its business.
“While search engines rank by popularity against a handful of keywords, AI agents make multiple calls into Shopify’s catalog, working with richer structured data to match products with the buyer’s specific intent, rather than just keywords,” Finkelstein explained.
“When a buyer asks an AI assistant for the best car seat that fits three across a sedan, traditional search focuses on the keyword ‘car seat.’ An agent, however, understands the actual need, the dimensions, the vehicle type, and the fact that they need three. It searches across all of those constraints at once to find the product that actually works, not just the one that ranks highest,” he said.
In other words, AI’s capability to search across many dimensions to find the best product for users is resulting in better conversions for merchants.
“Buyers’ shopping journeys are being compressed as half of all AI-referred sessions are landing directly on a product description page. That is 2.5 times more than what we see with traditional search,” Finkelstein added.
Plus, the company said 75% of AI-attributed purchases in Q2 happened outside the top 100 categories, or what Shopify called its “sweet spot.”
In addition, the company suggested Shopify stands to benefit from AI playing a larger role in transactions thanks to its trusted checkout experience.
The company pointed out that it’s also working with AI tools and agents, having built connectors to Claude, ChatGPT, Perplexity, Manus, Replit, and Vercel, as well as vibe-coding platforms like Lovable that let merchants build on Shopify however they choose.
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Provozovatel e-commerce platformy Shopify zveřejnil hospodářské výsledky za druhé čtvrtletí roku 2026. Výnosy překonaly průměrný odhad analytiků, taženy silným růstem segmentu Merchant Solutions i hrubého objemu zboží (GMV) zpracovaného přes platformu.
Výsledky společnosti Shopify (SHOP) za 2Q 2026 2Q 2026 Konsensus 2Q 2026 2Q 2025 Výnosy (mld. USD) 3,58 3,45 2,68 Čistý zisk (mld. USD) 1,50 -- 0,91 Očištěný zisk na akcii (EPS, USD/akcie) 0,42 0,41 0,35 Výsledky za čtvrtletí Výnosy meziročně vzrostly o 34 % na 3,58 mld. USD, nad odhadem 3,45 mld. USD.
Výnosy ze segmentu Merchant Solutions dosáhly 2,78 mld. USD, meziročně +37 %, nad odhadem 2,66 mld. USD. Výnosy ze segmentu Subscription Solutions dosáhly 802 mil. USD, meziročně +22 %, nad odhadem 790 mil. USD.
Měsíční opakující se výnosy (MRR) dosáhly 221 mil. USD, meziročně +19 %, nad odhadem 219,1 mil. USD.
Hrubý objem zboží (GMV) vzrostl o 32 % na 115,57 mld. USD, nad odhadem 112,12 mld. USD. Hrubý objem plateb (GPV) dosáhl ve čtvrtletí 78 mld. USD.
Provozní zisk vzrostl o 68 % na 488 mil. USD, nad odhadem 422 mil. USD. Celkové provozní náklady dosáhly 1,22 mld. USD, meziročně +21 %, v souladu s odhadem 1,22 mld. USD. Očištěné provozní náklady činily 1,09 mld. USD, mírně nad odhadem 1,08 mld. USD.
Výhled na 3Q 2026 Společnost pro třetí čtvrtletí roku 2026 očekává:
Růst výnosů meziročně v pásmu nízkých třiceti procent. Růst hrubého zisku (v dolarovém vyjádření) meziročně v pásmu středních až vysokých dvaceti procent. Provozní náklady na úrovni 33 až 34 % výnosů. Náklady na akciové odměny ve výši 150 mil. USD. Marži volného hotovostního toku v pásmu vysokých teens až nízkých dvaceti procent. Komentář vedení Harley Finkelstein, prezident Shopify, uvedl: „Bylo to famózní čtvrtletí: růst přes 30 % u GMV, výnosů, hrubého zisku i volného hotovostního toku zároveň. Poháníme každý typ podnikání, a s AI rozšiřujeme možnosti pro všechny z nich. Nikdo jiný se nám v tomto ohledu nepřibližuje.“
Jeff Hoffmeister, finanční ředitel Shopify, dodal: „Růst GMV zrychlil i navzdory už tak silnému loňskému druhému čtvrtletí, se solidními výsledky napříč všemi velikostmi obchodníků, kanály i regiony. Spolu s tímto momentem nadále zvyšujeme provozní páku, což se projevilo na 18% marži volného hotovostního toku. Široce založený, konzistentní a kumulativní růst spojený s finanční disciplínou – přesně to je model, který budujeme.“
Návrat kapitálu akcionářům Společnost během čtvrtletí odkoupila vlastní akcie v celkové hodnotě 1,42 mld. USD.
Akcie Shopify Akcie Shopify (SHOP) v předburzovní fázi obchodování rostou o 22,64 % na 151,21 USD.
Akcie Shopify Inc (SHOP) včera vzrostly o 5,4 % na 123,3 USD Ukazatel Ukazatel Kapitalizace (mld. USD) 160,0 P/E 111,4 Vývoj za letošní rok (%) -23,4 Očekávané P/E 66,7 52týdenní minimum (USD) 94,0 Prům. cílová cena (USD) 150,1 52týdenní maximum (USD) 182,2 Dividendový výnos (%) -- Zdroj: Shopify, Bloomberg
Shopify čeká za 2. čtvrtletí růst tržeb v horní části 20% pásma meziročně, tažený GMV, Shopify Payments a Shop Pay. Ziskovost ale může tlačit dolů slabší marže a vyšší náklady na AI a úvěrové ztráty.
Key Takeaways Shopify expects Q2 revenue growth in the high-20% range, supported by broad-based GMV gains.Payments, Shop Pay, B2B, offline commerce and enterprise wins are expected to drive Shopify's growth.Shopify faces margin pressure from revenue mix, rising AI costs, credit losses and a premium valuation. Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Shopify expects revenue growth in the high-20% range year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $3.43 billion, suggesting growth of 28.11% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and indicating 11.43% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Consensus Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, matched once and missed once, the earnings surprise being 7.38%, on average.
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.
Key Factors to Note for SHOP’s Q2Shopify’s second-quarter 2026 results are expected to have benefited from sustained growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) across merchant sizes, geographies and sales channels. Continued strength in North America and Europe, rising international adoption and balanced contributions from new merchants and same-store sales are likely to have supported revenues. Momentum among large merchants, including enterprise brands migrating from legacy commerce systems, is also expected to have driven Shopify Plus subscriptions, variable platform fees and merchant solutions revenues.
Higher adoption of Shopify Payments and Shop Pay is likely to have been another major growth driver. In the first quarter, Shopify Payments processed $67 billion of GMV, up 41% year over year, while penetration expanded 3% to 67%. Shop Pay GMV grew 59%, supported by more than 70% growth outside the United States. Continued payments adoption in recently entered European markets, Mexico and other international regions is expected to have boosted Merchant Solutions revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Shopify’s expanding omnichannel portfolio is also expected to have aided growth. Offline GMV increased 33% in the first quarter, while B2B GMV surged 80%, reflecting demand for unified online, physical retail and wholesale capabilities. The Shop app, which recorded 70% GMV growth, and Shop Campaigns are likely to have supported customer discovery and merchant sales. AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased eightfold, while orders originating from AI-powered searches rose nearly 13-fold, indicating growing contributions from emerging shopping channels.
However, Shopify’s second-quarter profitability is expected to have faced pressure from the faster growth of lower-margin Merchant Solutions revenues compared with Subscription Solutions revenues. Shopify projected gross profit dollar growth in the mid-20% range, below expected revenue growth in the high 20s, primarily due to revenue mix and continued payments strength. Moreover, rising technology and credit-related costs might also have weighed on margins.
Increased merchant use of Sidekick is expected to have driven higher large-language-model infrastructure expenses, a trend Shopify expects to continue. Transaction and loan losses increased to $116 million in the first quarter from $75 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting expansion of Shopify Capital, credit and payments products. The allowance for uncollectible loans also rose as the company expanded its merchant financing portfolio, increasing potential exposure to merchant defaults. Moreover, reduced foreign-exchange support is likely to have been headwind.
SHOP Shares Outperform SectorSHOP shares have dropped 27.2% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s rise of 11.7%.
Shopify has outperformed peers including Wix.com (WIX - Free Report) and Commerce.com (CMRC - Free Report) but lagged Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) . YTD, Amazon shares have returned 17.6% while Wix.com and Commerce.com shares have dropped 47% and 24%, respectively.
SHOP Stock’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Moreover, the Value Score of F suggests a stretched valuation for Shopify at this moment.
SHOP stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price/sales of 9.11X compared with the sector’s 6.28X, Amazon’s 3.26X, Wix.com’s 1.33X and Commerce.com’s 0.72X.
Shopify’s Current Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AI Push, Expanding International Footprint to Aid SHOPShopify’s long-term prospects are supported by its expanding role across the entire commerce lifecycle. The company is moving beyond storefront and checkout services toward product discovery, advertising, payments, financing, B2B, point-of-sale and international commerce. The company’s unified platform allows merchants to manage online, offline, wholesale and cross-border operations through a single system. The number of merchants generating more than $100 million in annual GMV has nearly doubled over the past two years, highlighting Shopify’s growing appeal to large enterprises.
AI represents another significant long-term opportunity. Sidekick’s weekly active merchant base increased roughly fourfold year over year, with merchants using it to create applications, automate workflows and modify storefronts. Shopify’s catalog contains more than one billion structured products with current pricing and inventory information, enabling AI platforms to surface more relevant products. Integrations with ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google and Meta, along with Shopify’s role in developing the Universal Commerce Protocol, should strengthen its position in agentic commerce.
International expansion and deeper monetization of Shopify Payments offer additional upside. Shopify currently provides Payments in 39 countries and sees opportunities to increase penetration in existing regions and launch in additional markets. Localization through regional currencies, payment methods, merchant financing and language recommendations should reduce barriers to adoption. Strong growth in B2B, Shop Pay, the Shop app and offline commerce could further increase the number of services used by each merchant and strengthen Shopify’s recurring revenue base.
However, Shopify operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving commerce market. The company must continue investing in AI, payments, security, infrastructure and international localization to remain competitive against commerce platforms, marketplaces and specialized software providers. Increasing reliance on AI also creates uncertainty regarding infrastructure costs, product adoption and the ability to generate returns sufficient to offset growing model-compute expenses.
ConclusionShopify’s second-quarter results are likely to reflect robust GMV growth, increasing adoption of Shopify Payments and Shop Pay, enterprise merchant wins and continued momentum across B2B, offline and international commerce. AI-driven tools and emerging shopping channels provide additional growth opportunities.
Shopify currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which implies that investors should start accumulating the stock ahead of the second-quarter earnings. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Morgan Stanley vidí u Shopify v býčím scénáři růst až na 287 USD za akcii, tedy asi o 150 % proti současné ceně. Firma zároveň v prvním čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 31 % na 3,1 miliardy USD.
Memory chip makers Micron and Sandisk are two of the hottest artificial intelligence stocks on the market, with shares gaining 720% and 3,200%, respectively, in the past year. But Shopify (SHOP +11.54%) is also leaning into the AI revolution, and Wall Street thinks the stock is undervalued.
Among 55 analysts, Shopify has a median target price of $150 per share, implying 32% upside from its current share price of $113. But Keith Weiss at Morgan Stanley is among the most optimistic analysts; he recently set Shopify with a bull-case target price of $287 per share, implying about 150% upside from its current price.
Here's what investors should know.
Image source: Getty Images.
Shopify is leaning into agentic commerce Shopify provides a turnkey solution for omnichannel commerce. Its software platform lets merchants manage their businesses across physical and digital storefronts, including social media, online marketplaces, and custom websites. Shopify also provides adjacent merchant solutions for payments, marketing, logistics, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Shopify's gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased 35% in the first quarter as investments beyond its core retail e-commerce offering continued to pay off. In particular, wholesale (business-to-business) GMV rose 80% and international GMV increased 45%. In turn, total revenue rose 31% to $3.1 billion and non-GAAP net income climbed 44% to $0.36 per diluted share.
Shopify is the market leader in e-commerce software and its merchants account for nearly 15% of U.S. e-commerce sales, which makes it the second largest company in the industry behind Amazon. Shopify is well positioned to gain market share in the agentic commerce era. Agentic commerce is a new technology where AI agents shop for consumers, handling everything from product research and comparisons to purchases.
Shopify co-developed the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) with Alphabet's Google, an open standard that allows commerce platform to syndicate merchant product catalog across agentic surfaces. Shopify is the only platform that enables product discovery and selling inside OpenAI's ChatGPT, Microsoft's Copilot, and Google's Gemini, according to President Harley Finkelstein.
Shopify is already benefiting from investments in agentic commerce. In the first quarter, AI-driven traffic to merchant storefronts climbed 8x, and orders from AI-powered searches increased 13x. "Early signals on AI channels are really compelling," Finkelstein told analysts. That bodes well for the future. Grand View Research estimates that agentic commerce sales will increase at 36% annually through 2033.
Meanwhile, Shopify employees are also leaning on AI to improve productivity. AI tools now handle over 50% of coding and management expects that figure to increase. By automating that work, Shopify was able to ship more than 300 new products last year while keeping its headcount flat. Those internal efficiencies should drive greater profitability over time.
Today's Change
(
11.54
%) $
13.13
Current Price
$
126.88
Shopify stock is expensive but still worth consideration Wall Street expects Shopify's adjusted earnings to increase at 31% annually through 2028. In that context, the current valuation of 74 times earnings looks relatively expensive. Yet, Keith Weiss at Morgan Stanley believes his bull-case scenario will materialize if sales growth accelerates on stronger-than-anticipated adoption of merchant solutions like Shopify Payments and Shopify Audiences (machine learning marketing software).
I doubt revenue growth will accelerate enough for the stock to hit $287 per share any time soon; the valuation is simply too rich. However, Wall Street's median target price values Shopify at $150 per share. That is more reasonable, though the company will probably still need to beat estimates and deliver encouraging guidance to reach that price.
Here's the bottom line: Shopify is well positioned to take market share in e-commerce as the agentic AI era unfolds. Yes, the stock is expensive, but it's also down 36% from its high. I think that creates a reasonable entry point for patient investors with a time horizon of at least five years. But I would start with a very small position and add shares if the stock continues to fall.
Brixmor Property Group ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil srovnatelný NOI o 5,8 % a upravil výhled na Nareit FFO na akcii pro rok 2026 na 2,35 až 2,37 USD. Zároveň hlásí rekordní obsazenost malých obchodů 92,6 %.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Brixmor Property Group Inc. (NYSE: BRX) ("Brixmor" or the "Company") announced today its operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. For the three months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025, net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. was $0.24 per diluted share and $0.28 per diluted share, respectively, and for the six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025, net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. was $0.65 per diluted share and $0.50 per diluted share, respectively.
Key highlights for the three months ended June 30, 2026 include:
Executed 1.4 million square feet of new and renewal leases, with rent spreads on comparable space of 19.1%, including new lease rent spreads on comparable space of 31.3% and renewal lease rent spreads on comparable space of 15.5% Realized total leased occupancy of 94.8%, anchor leased occupancy of 95.9%, and record small shop leased occupancy of 92.6% Commenced $12.7 million of annualized base rent Leased to billed occupancy spread totaled 440 basis points Total signed but not yet commenced new lease population represented 3.1 million square feet and a record $71.2 million of annualized base rent Reported an increase in same property NOI of 5.8%, including a contribution from base rent of 440 basis points Reported Nareit FFO of $178.6 million, or $0.58 per diluted share Stabilized $5.4 million of reinvestment projects at an average incremental NOI yield of 11%, with the in process reinvestment pipeline totaling $347.8 million at an expected average incremental NOI yield of 10% Completed $164.3 million of acquisitions and $15.1 million of dispositions Issued $400.0 million of 5.375% Senior Notes due 2036 Received a positive credit rating outlook from S&P Global Ratings Published the Company's annual Corporate Responsibility Report on June 18, 2026 (view the 2025 report at https://www.brixmor.com/corporate-responsibility) Subsequent events:
Updated previously provided Nareit FFO per diluted share expectations for 2026 to $2.35 - $2.37 from $2.34 - $2.37 and same property NOI growth expectations for 2026 to 5.00% - 5.75% from 4.75% - 5.50% "Our team continued to execute at a high level during the second quarter, delivering strong leasing spreads, record small shop occupancy, and a record signed but not yet commenced rent pipeline," commented Brian T. Finnegan, Chief Executive Officer and President. "The embedded growth within our portfolio, combined with the momentum from our reinvestment program and recent acquisitions, provides outstanding visibility into future earnings growth and underpins our increased outlook for 2026."
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
The following table summarizes the Company's net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. and Nareit FFO: (Unaudited, dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$73.5
$85.1
$201.3
$154.9
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. per diluted share
$0.24
$0.28
$0.65
$0.50
Nareit FFO
$178.6
$171.5
$358.1
$342.6
Nareit FFO per diluted share
$0.58
$0.56
$1.16
$1.11
Items that impact FFO comparability
$(0.0)
$(0.3)
$(0.1)
$(0.3)
Items that impact FFO comparability, net per share
$(0.00)
$(0.00)
$(0.00)
$(0.00)
Same Property NOI Performance
For the three months ended June 30, 2026, the Company reported an increase in same property NOI of 5.8% versus the comparable 2025 period. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company reported an increase in same property NOI of 6.1% versus the comparable 2025 period. Dividend
The Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.3075 per common share (equivalent to $1.23 per annum). The dividend is payable on October 15, 2026 to stockholders of record on October 2, 2026. PORTFOLIO AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
Value Enhancing Reinvestment Opportunities
During the three months ended June 30, 2026, the Company stabilized three value enhancing reinvestment projects with a total aggregate net cost of approximately $5.4 million at an average incremental NOI yield of 11% and added eight new reinvestment projects to its in process pipeline with a total aggregate net estimated cost of approximately $47.8 million at an expected average incremental NOI yield of 11%. The following table summarizes the Company's in process reinvestment pipeline as of June 30, 2026: (Dollars in millions)
Number of Projects
Net Estimated Costs
Expected NOI Yield
Anchor space repositioning
16
$79.2
7% - 14%
Outparcel development
13
23.0
14 %
Redevelopment
15
245.7
10 %
Total
44
$347.8
10 %
Follow Brixmor on LinkedIn for video updates on reinvestment projects at https://www.linkedin.com/company/brixmor. Acquisitions
As previously announced, during the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company acquired four shopping centers for a combined purchase price of $164.3 million, including: Mayfair Shopping Center, a 221,010 square foot grocery-anchored community center located in the affluent Long Island suburb of Commack, New York, for $70.0 million, including redeemable preferred units of the Company's operating partnership, Brixmor Operating Partnership LP (the "Operating Partnership") and the assumption of indebtedness on the property. This is a milestone transaction for Brixmor as it marks the first time the Company has used redeemable preferred units of the Operating Partnership as currency for a portion of the acquisition price. Jones Crossing, a 163,472 square foot grocery-anchored community center located in the high-growth market of College Station, Texas, home to Texas A&M University, for $46.5 million. Vintage Marketplace, a 72,184 square foot grocery-anchored neighborhood center serving a high-traffic retail corridor in the northwest suburbs of Houston, Texas, for $32.7 million. Stanford Station, a 96,844 square foot neighborhood center located immediately adjacent to the Company's 23rd Street Station and Panama City Square properties in Panama City, Florida, for $15.1 million. Dispositions
During the three months ended June 30, 2026, the Company generated approximately $15.1 million of gross proceeds from the disposition of two shopping centers. During the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company generated approximately $123.0 million of gross proceeds from the disposition of six shopping centers. CAPITAL STRUCTURE
On May 5, 2026, the Company's Operating Partnership issued $400.0 million aggregate principal amount of 5.375% Senior Notes due 2036. Proceeds were utilized to repay a portion of the $600.0 million 4.125% Senior Notes due 2026, which were fully repaid during the quarter. At June 30, 2026, the Company had $1.5 billion in liquidity. At June 30, 2026, the Company's net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized was 5.3x and net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months was 5.4x. GUIDANCE
The Company has updated its previously provided Nareit FFO per diluted share expectations for 2026 to $2.35 - $2.37 from $2.34 - $2.37 and its same property NOI growth expectations for 2026 to 5.00% - 5.75% from 4.75% - 5.50%. Revenues deemed uncollectible are expected to total 60 - 85 basis points of total expected revenues in 2026. 2026 expectations do not include any additional items that impact FFO comparability, which include gain or loss on extinguishment of debt, net, and transaction expenses, net, or any other one-time items. The following table provides a reconciliation of the range of the Company's 2026 estimated net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. to Nareit FFO: (Unaudited, dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
2026E
2026E Per
Diluted Share
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$353 - $359
$1.14 - $1.16
Depreciation and amortization related to real estate
427
1.39
Gain on sale of real estate assets
(62)
(0.20)
Impairment of real estate assets
6
0.02
Nareit FFO
$724 - $730
$2.35 - $2.37
CONNECT WITH BRIXMOR
For additional information, please visit https://www.brixmor.com; Follow Brixmor on: LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/company/brixmor Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Brixmor Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/brixmorpropertygroup; and YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/user/Brixmor. CONFERENCE CALL AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
The Company will host a teleconference on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. To participate, please dial 877.704.4453 (domestic) or 201.389.0920 (international) within 15 minutes of the scheduled start of the call. The teleconference can also be accessed via a live webcast at https://www.brixmor.com in the Investors section. A replay of the teleconference will be available through August 11, 2026 by dialing 844.512.2921 (domestic) or 412.317.6671 (international) (Passcode: 13760501) or via the web through July 28, 2027 at https://www.brixmor.com in the Investors section.
The Company's Supplemental Disclosure will be posted at https://www.brixmor.com in the Investors section. These materials are also available to all interested parties upon request to the Company at [email protected] or 800.468.7526.
NON-GAAP PERFORMANCE MEASURES
The Company presents the non-GAAP performance measures set forth below. These measures should not be considered as alternatives to, or more meaningful than, net income (calculated in accordance with GAAP) or other GAAP financial measures, as an indicator of financial performance and are not alternatives to, or more meaningful than, cash flow from operating activities (calculated in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of liquidity. Non-GAAP performance measures have limitations as they do not include all items of income and expense that affect operations, and accordingly, should always be considered as supplemental financial results to those calculated in accordance with GAAP. The Company's computation of these non-GAAP performance measures may differ in certain respects from the methodology utilized by other REITs and, therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by such other REITs. Investors are cautioned that items excluded from these non-GAAP performance measures are relevant to understanding and addressing financial performance. A reconciliation of net income to these non-GAAP performance measures is presented in the attached tables.
Nareit FFO
Nareit FFO is a supplemental, non-GAAP performance measure utilized to evaluate the operating and financial performance of real estate companies. Nareit defines FFO as net income (calculated in accordance with GAAP) excluding (i) depreciation and amortization related to real estate, (ii) gains and losses from the sale of certain real estate assets, (iii) gains and losses from change in control, (iv) impairment write-downs of certain real estate assets and investments in entities when the impairment is directly attributable to decreases in the value of depreciable real estate held by the entity and (v) after adjustments for unconsolidated joint ventures calculated to reflect FFO on the same basis. Considering the nature of its business as a real estate owner and operator, the Company believes that Nareit FFO is useful to investors in measuring its operating and financial performance because the definition excludes items included in net income (calculated in accordance with GAAP) that do not relate to or are not indicative of the Company's operating and financial performance, such as depreciation and amortization related to real estate, and items which can make periodic and peer analyses of operating and financial performance more difficult, such as gains and losses from the sale of certain real estate assets and impairment write-downs of certain real estate assets.
Same Property NOI
Same property NOI is a supplemental, non-GAAP performance measure utilized to evaluate the operating performance of real estate companies. Same property NOI is calculated (using properties owned for the entirety of both periods and excluding properties under development and completed new development properties that have been stabilized for less than one year) as total property revenues (base rent, expense reimbursements, adjustments for revenues deemed uncollectible, ancillary and other rental income, percentage rents, and other revenues) less direct property operating expenses (operating costs and real estate taxes). Same property NOI excludes (i) lease termination fees, (ii) straight-line rental income, net, (iii) accretion of below-market leases, net of amortization of above-market leases and tenant inducements, (iv) straight-line ground rent expense, net, (v) income or expense associated with the Company's captive insurance company, (vi) depreciation and amortization, (vii) impairment of real estate assets, (viii) general and administrative expense, and (ix) other income and expense (including interest expense and gain on sale of real estate assets). Considering the nature of its business as a real estate owner and operator, the Company believes that NOI is useful to investors in measuring the operating performance of its portfolio because the definition excludes various items included in net income that do not relate to, or are not indicative of, the operating performance of the Company's properties, such as lease termination fees, straight-line rental income, net, income or expense associated with the Company's captive insurance company, accretion of below-market leases, net of amortization of above-market leases and tenant inducements, straight-line ground rent expense, net, depreciation and amortization, impairment of real estate assets, general and administrative expense, and other income and expense (including interest expense and gain on sale of real estate assets). The Company believes that same property NOI is also useful to investors because it further eliminates disparities in NOI by only including NOI of properties owned for the entirety of both periods presented and excluding properties under development and completed new development properties that have been stabilized for less than one year and therefore provides a more consistent metric for comparing the operating performance of the Company's real estate between periods.
Net Principal Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized & Net Principal Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months
Net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized and net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months are supplemental non-GAAP measures utilized to evaluate the performance of real estate companies in relation to outstanding debt. Net principal debt is calculated as Debt obligations, net (calculated in accordance with GAAP) excluding net unamortized premium or discount and deferred financing fees less cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as the sum of net income (calculated in accordance with GAAP) before non-controlling interests excluding (i) interest expense, (ii) federal and state taxes, (iii) depreciation and amortization, (iv) gains and losses from the sale of certain real estate assets, (v) gains and losses from change in control, (vi) impairment write-downs of certain real estate assets and investments in entities when the impairment is directly attributable to decreases in the value of depreciable real estate held by the entity, (vii) gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt, net, and (viii) other items that the Company believes are not indicative of the Company's operating performance. Net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized and net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months are calculated as net principal debt divided by quarterly annualized adjusted EBITDA or trailing twelve month adjusted EBITDA, respectively. Considering the nature of its business as a real estate owner and operator, the Company believes that net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized and net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months are useful to investors in measuring its operating performance because they exclude items included in net income (calculated in accordance with GAAP) that do not relate to or are not indicative of the operating performance of the Company's real estate, are widely known and understood measures of performance, independent of a company's capital structure and items which can make periodic and peer analyses of performance more difficult, and can provide investors with a more consistent basis by which to compare the Company with its peers.
ABOUT BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP
Brixmor (NYSE: BRX) owns and operates a high-quality, national portfolio of open-air shopping centers. The Company's 346 retail centers comprise approximately 63 million square feet of prime retail space in established trade areas. Brixmor's properties reflect its vision "to be the center of the communities we serve" and are home to a diverse mix of thriving national, regional and local retailers. Brixmor is a valued partner to a broad range of retailers, including The TJX Companies, The Kroger Co., Publix Super Markets and Ross Stores.
Brixmor announces material information to its investors in SEC filings and press releases and on public conference calls, webcasts and the "Investors" page of its website at https://www.brixmor.com. The Company also uses social media to communicate with its investors and the public, and the information Brixmor posts on social media may be deemed material information. Therefore, Brixmor encourages investors and others interested in the Company to review the information that it posts on its website and on its social media channels.
SAFE HARBOR LANGUAGE
This press release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to our expectations regarding the performance of our business, our financial results, our liquidity and capital resources, and other non-historical statements. You can identify these forward-looking statements by the use of words such as "outlook," "believes," "expects," "potential," "continues," "may," "will," "should," "seeks," "projects," "predicts," "intends," "plans," "estimates," "anticipates," or the negative version of these words or other comparable words. Such forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. We believe these factors include, but are not limited to, those described under the sections entitled "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), which are accessible on the SEC's website at https://www.sec.gov. These factors include (1) changes in national, regional, and local economies, due to global events such as international geopolitical conflicts, international trade disputes, a foreign debt crisis, foreign currency volatility, or due to domestic issues, such as government policies and regulations, tariffs, energy prices, market dynamics, general economic contractions, ongoing levels of inflation and interest rates, unemployment, or limited growth in consumer income or spending; (2) local real estate market conditions, including an oversupply of space in, or a reduction in demand for, properties similar to those in our Portfolio (defined hereafter); (3) competition from other available properties and e-commerce; (4) disruption and/or consolidation in the retail sector, the financial stability of our tenants, and the overall financial condition of large retailing companies, including their ability to pay rent and/or expense reimbursements that are due to us; (5) in the case of percentage rents, the sales volumes of our tenants; (6) increases in property operating expenses, including common area expenses, utilities, insurance, and real estate taxes, which are relatively inflexible and generally do not decrease if revenue or occupancy decrease; (7) increases in the costs to repair, renovate, and re-lease space; (8) earthquakes, wildfires, tornadoes, hurricanes, damage from rising sea levels due to climate change, other natural disasters, epidemics and/or pandemics, civil unrest, terrorist acts, or acts of war, any of which may result in uninsured or underinsured losses; (9) changes in laws and governmental regulations, including those governing usage, zoning, the environment, privacy, data security, intellectual property rights, and taxes; and (10) cybersecurity incidents or other disruptions to information technology systems used by us, our tenants, or our vendors, which could compromise data or impair business operations. These factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this press release and in our periodic filings. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise, except to the extent otherwise required by law.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
Unaudited, dollars in thousands, except share information
As of
As of
6/30/2026
12/31/2025
Assets
Real estate
Land
$ 1,864,583
$ 1,849,779
Buildings and tenant improvements
9,430,205
9,296,849
Construction in progress
65,546
92,129
Lease intangibles
559,484
548,740
11,919,818
11,787,497
Accumulated depreciation and amortization
(3,708,299)
(3,588,646)
Real estate, net
8,211,519
8,198,851
Cash and cash equivalents
170,889
334,422
Restricted cash
15,230
27,108
Marketable securities
23,504
21,283
Receivables, net, including straight-line rent receivables of $249,808 and $237,837, respectively
305,579
315,128
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses, net
173,752
169,326
Real estate assets held for sale
-
4,551
Other assets
106,239
62,468
Total assets
$ 9,006,712
$ 9,133,137
Liabilities
Debt obligations, net
$ 5,322,423
$ 5,494,753
Accounts payable, accrued expenses and other liabilities
631,703
628,328
Total liabilities
5,954,126
6,123,081
Redeemable non-controlling interests
30,643
-
Equity
Common stock, $0.01 par value; authorized 3,000,000,000 shares;
315,999,308 and 315,231,761 shares issued and 306,872,316 and 306,104,769
shares outstanding
3,068
3,061
Additional paid-in capital
3,427,652
3,437,853
Accumulated other comprehensive income
12,140
1,722
Distributions in excess of net income
(421,159)
(432,822)
Total stockholders' equity
3,021,701
3,009,814
Non-controlling interests
242
242
Total equity
3,021,943
3,010,056
Total liabilities and equity
$ 9,006,712
$ 9,133,137
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
Unaudited, dollars in thousands, except per share amounts
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Revenues
Rental income
$ 353,892
$ 339,397
$ 708,229
$ 676,638
Other revenues
307
95
789
366
Total revenues
354,199
339,492
709,018
677,004
Operating expenses
Operating costs
44,227
39,877
86,141
79,088
Real estate taxes
44,279
43,559
89,682
88,452
Depreciation and amortization
110,258
103,277
215,460
208,874
Impairment of real estate assets
5,974
-
5,974
-
General and administrative
27,858
29,093
56,050
57,266
Total operating expenses
232,596
215,806
453,307
433,680
Other income (expense)
Dividends and interest
3,912
1,190
7,117
2,896
Interest expense
(60,898)
(54,409)
(120,290)
(108,493)
Gain on sale of real estate assets
9,820
15,755
61,917
18,825
Loss on extinguishment of debt, net
-
(296)
-
(296)
Other
(775)
(780)
(3,036)
(1,373)
Total other expense
(47,941)
(38,540)
(54,292)
(88,441)
Net income
73,662
85,146
201,419
154,883
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests
(151)
(7)
(158)
(15)
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$ 73,511
$ 85,139
$ 201,261
$ 154,868
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. per common share:
Basic
$ 0.24
$ 0.28
$ 0.65
$ 0.50
Diluted
$ 0.24
$ 0.28
$ 0.65
$ 0.50
Weighted average shares:
Basic
307,183
306,975
307,115
306,923
Diluted
307,920
307,609
307,695
307,547
FUNDS FROM OPERATIONS (FFO)
Unaudited, dollars in thousands, except per share amounts
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$ 73,511
$ 85,139
$ 201,261
$ 154,868
Depreciation and amortization related to real estate
108,890
102,091
212,809
206,539
Gain on sale of real estate assets
(9,820)
(15,755)
(61,917)
(18,825)
Impairment of real estate assets
5,974
-
5,974
-
Nareit FFO
$ 178,555
$ 171,475
$ 358,127
$ 342,582
Nareit FFO per diluted share
$ 0.58
$ 0.56
$ 1.16
$ 1.11
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding
307,920
307,609
307,695
307,547
Items that impact FFO comparability
Transaction expenses, net
$ (1)
$ (1)
$ (50)
$ (22)
Loss on extinguishment of debt, net
-
(296)
-
(296)
Total items that impact FFO comparability
$ (1)
$ (297)
$ (50)
$ (318)
Items that impact FFO comparability, net per share
$ (0.00)
$ (0.00)
$ (0.00)
$ (0.00)
Additional Disclosures
Straight-line rental income, net
$ 5,854
$ 9,781
$ 13,793
$ 17,262
Accretion of below-market leases, net of amortization of above-market leases and tenant inducements
3,689
4,174
7,798
6,689
Straight-line ground rent expense, net (1)
(161)
(141)
(321)
(275)
Dividends declared per share
$ 0.3075
$ 0.2875
$ 0.6150
$ 0.5750
Dividends declared
$ 94,363
$ 88,004
$ 188,715
$ 175,995
Dividend payout ratio (as % of Nareit FFO)
52.8 %
51.3 %
52.7 %
51.4 %
(1) Straight-line ground rent expense, net is included in Operating costs on the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
SAME PROPERTY NOI ANALYSIS
Unaudited, dollars in thousands
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Change
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Change
Same Property NOI Analysis
Number of properties
337
337
- %
337
337
- %
Percent billed
90.3 %
89.8 %
0.5 %
90.3 %
89.8 %
0.5 %
Percent leased
94.7 %
94.4 %
0.3 %
94.7 %
94.4 %
0.3 %
Revenues
Base rent
$ 239,766
$ 229,431
$ 477,353
$ 457,597
Expense reimbursements
78,510
73,423
157,569
149,188
Revenues deemed uncollectible
(1,495)
(2,318)
(3,071)
(4,698)
Ancillary and other rental income / Other revenues
10,469
8,979
18,801
14,567
Percentage rents
2,774
2,774
7,754
6,717
330,024
312,289
5.7 %
658,406
623,371
5.6 %
Operating expenses
Operating costs
(41,787)
(38,177)
(81,351)
(75,619)
Real estate taxes
(42,813)
(42,157)
(86,407)
(85,429)
(84,600)
(80,334)
5.3 %
(167,758)
(161,048)
4.2 %
Same property NOI
$ 245,424
$ 231,955
5.8 %
$ 490,648
$ 462,323
6.1 %
NOI margin
74.4 %
74.3 %
74.5 %
74.2 %
Expense recovery ratio
92.8 %
91.4 %
93.9 %
92.6 %
Percent Contribution to Same Property NOI Performance:
Change
Percent
Contribution
Change
Percent
Contribution
Base Rent
$ 10,335
4.4 %
$ 19,756
4.3 %
Revenues deemed uncollectible
823
0.4 %
1,627
0.3 %
Net expense reimbursements
821
0.4 %
1,671
0.4 %
Ancillary and other rental income / Other revenues
1,490
0.6 %
4,234
0.9 %
Percentage rents
-
0.0 %
1,037
0.2 %
5.8 %
6.1 %
Reconciliation of Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc. to Same Property NOI
Net income attributable to Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$ 73,511
$ 85,139
$ 201,261
$ 154,868
Adjustments:
Non-same property NOI
(8,145)
(8,935)
(16,905)
(18,002)
Lease termination fees
(2,742)
(1,352)
(4,372)
(5,463)
Straight-line rental income, net
(5,854)
(9,781)
(13,793)
(17,262)
Accretion of below-market leases, net of amortization of above-market leases and tenant inducements
(3,689)
(4,174)
(7,798)
(6,689)
Straight-line ground rent expense, net
161
141
321
275
Depreciation and amortization
110,258
103,277
215,460
208,874
Impairment of real estate assets
5,974
-
5,974
-
General and administrative
27,858
29,093
56,050
57,266
Total other expense
47,941
38,540
54,292
88,441
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests
151
7
158
15
Same Property NOI
$ 245,424
$ 231,955
$ 490,648
$ 462,323
EBITDA & RECONCILIATION OF DEBT OBLIGATIONS, NET TO NET PRINCIPAL DEBT
Unaudited, dollars in thousands
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
6/30/2026
6/30/2025
Net income
$ 73,662
$ 85,146
$ 201,419
$ 154,883
Interest expense
60,898
54,409
120,290
108,493
Federal and state taxes
744
753
1,683
1,460
Depreciation and amortization
110,258
103,277
215,460
208,874
EBITDA
245,562
243,585
538,852
473,710
Gain on sale of real estate assets
(9,820)
(15,755)
(61,917)
(18,825)
Impairment of real estate assets
5,974
-
5,974
-
EBITDAre
$ 241,716
$ 227,830
$ 482,909
$ 454,885
EBITDAre
$ 241,716
$ 227,830
$ 482,909
$ 454,885
Transaction expenses, net
1
1
50
22
Loss on extinguishment of debt, net
-
296
-
296
Total adjustments
1
297
50
318
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 241,717
$ 228,127
$ 482,959
$ 455,203
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 241,717
$ 228,127
$ 482,959
$ 455,203
Straight-line rental income, net
(5,854)
(9,781)
(13,793)
(17,262)
Accretion of below-market leases, net of amortization of above-market leases and tenant inducements
(3,689)
(4,174)
(7,798)
(6,689)
Straight-line ground rent expense, net (1)
161
141
321
275
Total adjustments
(9,382)
(13,814)
(21,270)
(23,676)
Cash Adjusted EBITDA
$ 232,335
$ 214,313
$ 461,689
$ 431,527
(1) Straight-line ground rent expense, net is included in Operating costs on the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
Reconciliation of Debt Obligations, Net to Net Principal Debt
As of
6/30/2026
Debt obligations, net
$ 5,322,423
Less: Net unamortized premium
(7,452)
Add: Deferred financing fees
33,982
Less: Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash
(186,119)
Net Principal Debt
$ 5,162,834
Adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized
$ 966,868
Net Principal Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, current quarter annualized
5.3x
Adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months
$ 953,871
Net Principal Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months
Shopify v 1. čtvrtletí 2026 zvýšil výnosy ze Subscription Solutions o 21 % na 750 milionů USD. Sidekick používalo meziročně téměř čtyřikrát více týdenně aktivních obchodů.
Key Takeaways Shopify's Subscription Solutions revenues rose 21% to $750 million in first-quarter 2026. Plus merchants grew faster than the overall base, while large merchants nearly doubled in two years. Sidekick usage nearly quadrupled, supporting retention, upgrades and an 80% segment gross margin. Shopify’s (SHOP - Free Report) Subscription Solutions business is strengthening the company’s growth prospects by expanding its recurring revenue base across Standard and Plus plans. In the first quarter of 2026, Subscription Solutions revenues increased 21% year over year to $750 million. Monthly recurring revenues rose 16% to $212 million, with Shopify Plus accounting for 35% of total MRR, up from 34% in the prior-year quarter. This reflects healthy additions of new merchants as well as existing merchants upgrading to higher-tier plans as their businesses scale.
Growth is also being supported by stronger adoption among larger merchants. Shopify noted that Plus merchants expanded faster than its overall merchant base, boosting monthly subscription revenues and variable platform fees. The number of large merchants generating more than $100 million in annual GMV on Shopify has nearly doubled over the past two years. Enterprise wins involving brands such as Orvis, Mulberry and LVMH highlight Shopify’s growing appeal as companies replace costly legacy systems with its unified commerce, POS, B2B and payments platform.
The company’s ecosystem of apps, themes and domains represents another important Subscription Solutions growth driver. Thousands of third-party applications extend Shopify’s platform capabilities, improving merchant engagement and increasing the value of remaining within the ecosystem. Shopify is also broadening access to B2B functionality across standard subscription plans, enabling merchants to manage wholesale and direct-to-consumer operations through one platform. This could attract more merchants while creating opportunities for future upgrades and additional service adoption.
AI-powered tools such as Sidekick are further enhancing the long-term prospects of the segment by making the platform more productive and deeply embedded in merchants’ daily operations. Weekly active shops using Sidekick increased nearly fourfold year over year, while merchants created more than 12,000 custom apps through the tool during the quarter. As merchants rely on Shopify for store design, automation, analytics and business recommendations, retention and plan-upgrade opportunities are likely to improve. Subscription Solutions also carries an attractive gross margin of approximately 80%, making its continued expansion supportive of Shopify’s gross profit and operating leverage.
Shopify Faces Tough CompetitionThe competitive intensity in e-commerce remains high for Shopify, with Commerce.com (CMRC - Free Report) and eBay (EBAY - Free Report) standing out as key challengers.
Commerce.com positions itself as an open, AI-native commerce platform rather than a traditional storefront provider. CMRC’s Feedonomics product enables merchants to optimize product listings across marketplaces, AI search engines and agentic commerce platforms, while its BigCommerce platform integrates with Google Universal Commerce Protocol, OpenAI, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot and Meta. Commerce.com is also strengthening its competitive position through rapid AI innovation and payments capabilities. During the first quarter of 2026, CMRC launched BigCommerce Payments with PayPal, expanded AI-powered Commerce Companion, introduced agentic checkout across multiple AI platforms and enhanced B2B automation with purchase-order agents and complex pricing capabilities.
eBay remains another formidable competitor by differentiating itself through a marketplace model built around collectibles, recommerce, consumer-to-consumer (C2C) selling and trusted transactions. The company reported 14% GMV growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by accelerating demand across collectibles, motors, electronics and fashion. Investments in AI-powered listing tools, agentic search, live shopping, authenticity guarantees, international shipping and social commerce integrations are strengthening buyer engagement and seller productivity. These initiatives enhance eBay’s appeal for merchants and individual sellers that may otherwise build independent storefronts on Shopify, particularly in resale and specialty categories.
SHOP’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShopify shares have lost 29.3% year to date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 9.7%.
SHOP’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify stock is overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 8.88X compared with the broader sector’s 6.18X. SHOP has a Value Score of F.
SHOP’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.84 per share, up a couple of cents over the past 30 days. This suggests 57.26% year-over-year growth.
Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Amazon v 1. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 16,61 % na 181,519 miliardy USD, ale po zveřejnění výsledků akcie klesly od zveřejnění reportu o 5 % kvůli vysokým kapitálovým výdajům. Tržby Shopify vzrostly o 34,32 % na 3,17 miliardy USD.
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) and Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) sit on opposite sides of the same retail transaction.
Amazon owns the storefront, warehouse, and increasingly the cloud powering everyone else. Shopify arms independent merchants competing against it. Both posted Q1 2026 results beating revenue expectations, and the contrast reveals where commerce and AI money is flowing.
AWS Reaccelerates While Shopify Crosses $100B in GMV Amazon reported $181.519 billion in revenue, up 16.61%, with EPS of $2.78 against a $1.653 estimate. AWS drove the headline, hitting $37.587 billion in cloud revenue, up 28%, the fastest pace in 15 quarters.
Andy Jassy told investors the chips business (Trainium, Graviton, Nitro) crossed a “$20 billion revenue run rate (growing triple digits year-over-year)”. Advertising cleared $70 billion trailing twelve months, a real second engine.
Shopify reported $3.17 billion in revenue, but growth ran hotter at 34.32%, accelerating from 27% in Q1 2025. Merchant Solutions grew 39% to $2.42 billion. GMV crossed $100.74 billion for the quarter for the first time, up 35%.
Operating income nearly doubled to $382 million, though a $941 million mark-to-market equity hit pushed GAAP net income to negative $581 million. Underlying profit was $360 million.
One Builds the AI Backbone, the Other Arms Merchants Amazon is spending like a utility. Q1 capex was $44.203 billion, up 76.68%. Anthropic committed to up to 5 GW of Trainium capacity, OpenAI to roughly 2 GW. Polymarket traders assign a 98.5% probability that Amazon 2026 capex exceeds $170B, and 86.5% above $200B. That is a substantial bill for AWS to justify.
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Shopify took the opposite approach: capex of $5 million, free cash flow of $476 million, and $491 million in buybacks under a fresh $2 billion program. Merchant lending originations hit $1.349 billion, turning Shop Capital into a real financial services line.
Lens Amazon Shopify Core bet AI infrastructure and custom silicon Merchant tools, payments, lending Q1 capex $44.2B $5M P/E 31 121 Key risk Capex payback timeline SMB merchant health, loan losses The Next Test Is Whether Capex and Consumer Spending Cooperate Amazon guided Q2 revenue to $194 billion to $199 billion. Shopify guided revenue growth in the high-twenties percentage range with mid-teens free cash flow margin. Watch whether Bedrock token growth and Trainium deployments start pulling AWS margins higher despite capex drag. For Shopify, monitor credit losses inside that $1.35 billion lending book if SMB spending softens.
Post-earnings action split. Amazon slipped 5% since its report as the market weighed capex. Shopify recovered 16.19% from its post-earnings dip, though shares are down 22.31% year to date.
The Case for Amazon on Valuation Amazon offers AWS growing 28% at a 37.7% operating margin, a real ads business, and a chip franchise Reddit compares to AMD and Broadcom, at a P/E of roughly 31. Shopify’s growth is faster, but a 121 trailing P/E leaves little room for consumer weakness.
For higher-beta commerce exposure, Shopify fits. For AI infrastructure at a reasonable multiple, Amazon is cleaner. The setup to watch is whether capex begins converting to cash in the second half.
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Jefferies has upgraded Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) to Buy from Hold and bumped its price target up to $160, pointing to strong early signs for the second quarter, a reworked partner program, and what it thinks is a price increase on the way.
The firm's 2026 earnings-per-share estimates come in at $0.36 for Q1, $0.37 for Q2, $0.44 for Q3 and $0.61 for Q4, adding up to $1.78 for the full year.
Jefferies has been tracking web traffic to shop.app subdomains and found it lines up closely with GMV, a 94% correlation going back to early 2023.
Even factoring in a steady drop in GMV per visit and typical seasonal softness quarter over quarter, the firm thinks Shopify could beat the Street's call for 27% GMV growth in Q2.
The firm also likes changes coming to Shopify's partner commission structure in August, which tie payouts more directly to the value partners actually create on the platform. Jefferies thinks that pushes partners toward landing bigger merchants, sticking around to help them succeed after launch, and paying more attention to things like B2B, POS and Shopify Components, rather than coasting on recurring commissions.
Then there's pricing. Shopify hasn't touched its non-Plus pricing since a 33-34% hike in 2023, and Plus pricing has been flat since a 25% increase in 2024. Since then, the company has added a bunch of new features, including its Sidekick AI assistant, and has been eating the cost of running it.
Jefferies figures that with more merchants actually using and getting value out of Sidekick, Shopify is in a good spot to raise prices again. Management has not committed to anything specific, but Jefferies thinks it's coming. A hike similar to the 2023 move would be small change for any individual merchant, but Jefferies estimates it could add 3-4% to its 2027 revenue numbers, and most of that would flow straight to profit.
On the agentic commerce side, Jefferies stuck with its long-standing view that Shopify is well placed to be the backbone for merchants as AI agents start doing more of the shopping on customers' behalf. The firm sees this as a modest but steady tailwind for GMV over the next few years.
In the latest trading session, Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) closed at $119.22, marking a -2.18% move from the previous day. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.28% for the day. At the same time, the Dow lost 1.09%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.2%.
The cloud-based commerce company's shares have seen an increase of 10.38% over the last month, surpassing the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 1.22% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.64%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Shopify in its upcoming release. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $0.39, indicating a 11.43% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $3.43 billion, showing a 28.03% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $1.83 per share and revenue of $14.71 billion. These totals would mark changes of +56.41% and +27.26%, respectively, from last year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Shopify. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. Currently, Shopify is carrying a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).
Looking at its valuation, Shopify is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 66.52. This expresses a premium compared to the average Forward P/E of 16.05 of its industry.
Meanwhile, SHOP's PEG ratio is currently 1.92. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Internet - Services was holding an average PEG ratio of 1.58 at yesterday's closing price.
The Internet - Services industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 112, placing it within the top 46% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
Bank of America obnovila pokrytí Shopify s doporučením Buy a cílovou cenou 150 USD, protože očekává přínos z AI-driven agentic commerce. Akcie ve středu klesly o 5 % na 115 USD.
Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) has been awarded a ‘Buy’ rating and a $150 price target in reinstated coverage, citing the company’s potential to benefit from the evolution of AI-driven “agentic commerce,” as well as ongoing international expansion and enterprise adoption.
The firm’s price target is based on a valuation of 22 times estimated calendar 2027 enterprise value to gross profit. Bank of America wrote that Shopify could become a key beneficiary of AI-native commerce as its payments and checkout infrastructure become increasingly important to transactions conducted through artificial intelligence-powered shopping experiences.
The analyst noted that concerns over AI disrupting Shopify’s position in the commerce ecosystem have weighed on investor sentiment, but argued that the company is positioned to benefit from the shift rather than be bypassed.
“We believe Shopify could be a core beneficiary of the shift toward AI-driven, agentic commerce rather than being disintermediated by it,” Bank of America wrote.
The firm expects agentic commerce to become a meaningful part of e-commerce over the coming years and believes value will increasingly concentrate around transaction and infrastructure layers, where Shopify has an established presence.
Bank of America also highlighted international growth and expansion into larger merchants as additional long-term growth drivers. The firm noted that international gross merchandise volume grew 45% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, while payments volume outside the U.S. increased more than 70%. Non-U.S. revenue currently represents 37% of Shopify’s total revenue.
The analyst also pointed to continued momentum among enterprise customers, noting that merchants with more than $25 million in gross merchandise volume are growing at the fastest pace and that Shopify Plus revenue increased 20% year over year.
Bank of America forecasts Shopify revenue growth of 24% to 28% from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2028, with gross margins expected to remain in the mid-to-high 40% range. The firm expects operating margins to expand from 17.1% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2028, while free cash flow margins are forecast to increase from 17.4% to 20.3% over the same period.
The firm noted that Shopify’s payments-focused business model results in structurally lower gross margins, making enterprise value to gross profit a more relevant valuation measure. Its 22-times target multiple is above the peer group average of 18.1 times, reflecting Shopify’s growth outlook and expected margin expansion.
Shares of Shopify were down 5% at $115 in Wednesday trading.
Shopify stock has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from the year-to-date low of $94.47 to the current $121.63. This rebound may continue, helped by its modest revenue growth and encouraging technicals.
Shopify, the operator of the biggest e-commerce software, soared after reaching a settlement with Shopline, a company owned by Joyy, a publicly-traded company.
The two companies asked a judge to bar Shopline from distributing its software. In a statement, Shopify said that Shopline had copied its Dawn theme, rebranded it, and sold it against it. Its chief counsel said:
"We took them to court and they've been ordered to stop and to pay us. Open source is built on trust and we'll defend that every time someone treats it as a free pass to steal."
The terms of the deal were confidential, but it is estimated that Joyy, which is valued at over $3.3 billion paid millions of dollars. Its stock jumped by 1.38% after the filing.
While Shopify jumped on Wednesday, it remains 35% below its highest level last year, mirroring the performance of most software companies. The general view is that e-commerce companies will start abandoning Shopify and build their websites using AI. Indeed, it is now possible to build advanced e-commerce stores using tools like Lovable and Cursor.
However, there is a likelihood that the company’s business will continue doing well in the long term because of the value it gives its customers. The most recent results shows that it continues to add more costumers to its ecosystem. It added firms like Balmain Paris, Rag & Bone, Mulberry, and The Outnet.
The numbers also showed that its revenue growth jumped by 34% to $3.17 billion, a great number for a company that has been in the industry for years. Its gross profit rose to over $1.56 billion, while its free cash flow rose to $476 million.
The management also boosted its forward guidance and now expects revenue to grow in the high-twenties in the second quarter. The consensus among analysts is that its revenue growth will be 28% to $3.4 billion, while its annual figure will grow by 28% to $14.8 billion.
These numbers mean that the company is a bargain on a rule-of-40 metric. It has a forward revenue growth rate of 28% and a profit margin of 14%, giving it a multiple of 42%.
SHOP stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the SHOP stock price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $94.47 in March to $121.63 today. It has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis.
The stock has also jumped above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the stock is bullish, with the next key target to watch being at $150.
READ MORE: Wall Street experts are bullish on Shopify stock: should you?
Shopify uzavřel partnerství s Trustpilot, které obchodníkům umožní zobrazovat a spravovat recenze přímo v internetových obchodech. Integrace má být spuštěna v pondělí 29. června.
Reviews website Trustpilot has reportedly launched a partnership with eCommerce platform Shopify.
The arrangement will let merchants showcase and manage Trustpilot reviews on their online stores, Bloomberg News reported Saturday (June 27), citing an interview with Adrian Blair, Trustpilot’s chief executive.
Blair said that third-party consumer feedback is growing in importance as artificial intelligence plays a larger role in online retail.
“The key problem that all these Shopify merchants are facing is, how do you actually build trust with customers now in the age of AI?” he said. “There is so much that is now being created by AI, this kind of synthetic content, and Trustpilot is a canonical source of what people say about their experiences with businesses.”
AI-driven search engines and AI shopping assistants also depend on data such as Trustpilot’s, the report added, meaning that a greater volume of reviews can create more visibility online. Trustpilot content is already a vital resource for large language models, with the click-through rate from AI search climbing 1,490% in its most recent financial year, Bloomberg said.
Integrated Trustpilot reviews on the Shopify platform are set to go live Monday (June 29), the report continued. Blair had said in March that his company was exploring partnerships with the internet’s shopping giants.
The Shopify collaboration is “the first kind of major proof point, so we are executing against the strategy that we set out earlier this year,” Blair told Bloomberg, adding that the agreement isn’t exclusive and Trustpilot hopes to pursue partnerships across a variety of industries.
“We see huge adoption of Trustpilot with banks, insurance companies, utilities, accounting firms, cybersecurity companies, law firms, et cetera,” Blair added. “For us retail is very important, but it is one of many verticals.”
Meanwhile, recent research from PYMNTS Intelligence shows that consumers want AI to be involved in their online shopping journey, though more as a navigator than a driver.
“Tasks involving discovery, comparison shopping and information gathering emerged as natural fits for AI,” PYMNTS wrote earlier this month. “Areas involving payments, financial commitments and irreversible decisions, however, continued to trigger greater demand for human oversight.”
The findings, from the May 2026 Consumer AI Benchmark, indicate that the next phase of AI adoption will hinge less on the sophistication of the technology and depend more on whether merchants can find the balance between automation and human control.
Shopify hlásí, že návštěvnost z AI u obchodů merchantů ve 1. čtvrtletí 2026 meziročně vzrostla 8x a objednávky z AI vyhledávání téměř 13x. Firma má navíc strukturováno přes 1 miliardu produktů pro objevování řízené AI.
Key Takeaways SHOP reported AI-driven traffic to merchant stores rose 8x year over year in Q1 2026.Shopify saw orders from AI-powered searches increase nearly 13x, with higher new-buyer conversion.SHOP has structured more than 1 billion products to support AI-led discovery across shopping platforms. Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) is positioning agentic commerce as a potential new demand channel for merchants as artificial intelligence begins to reshape how shoppers discover, compare and purchase products online. The company is embedding its platform into emerging AI shopping ecosystems, giving merchants another route to reach buyers beyond conventional search and direct website traffic.
The early signals are notable. In the first quarter of 2026, AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased 8x year over year, while orders generated from AI-powered searches rose nearly 13x. New buyer orders from AI searches also occurred at nearly twice the rate of traditional organic search, suggesting that AI-led discovery may help merchants reach incremental customers. Shopify has also structured more than 1 billion products with clean attributes, real-time pricing and accurate inventory, allowing AI agents to surface relevant products more effectively across channels such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google AI services.
The opportunity extends beyond traffic growth. More AI-driven shopping activity could support higher merchant GMV over time, which would benefit Shopify’s broader commerce ecosystem if those transactions flow through its platform. Shopify Payments processed $67 billion of GMV in the first quarter, up 41% year over year, while penetration reached 67% of total GMV. Shop Pay processed $35 billion of GMV, growing 59% year over year.
Shopify is also working to become part of the infrastructure layer behind AI commerce. The company co-developed the Universal Commerce Protocol with Google to support agentic commerce across platforms. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Stripe have joined the related council, reinforcing the importance of common standards as AI agents become more involved in product discovery, checkout, payments and post-purchase activity. For Shopify, that participation strengthens its position as a connector between merchants and emerging AI-led shopping surfaces.
Shopify’s ability to turn agentic commerce into a durable growth channel will likely depend on whether AI-led shopping continues gaining adoption and converts into meaningful merchant activity. The first-quarter metrics show strong early momentum, but the financial impact will depend on how much of that traffic converts into orders, GMV and deeper merchant engagement. If AI increasingly becomes a starting point for online shopping, Shopify’s catalog, payments infrastructure and unified commerce platform could give the company a larger role in the next phase of digital commerce.
Shopify’s Competitor LandscapeAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) provides a relevant benchmark for SHOP because it is also positioning AI as a major force in how consumers discover and purchase products. Amazon’s advantage lies in its marketplace scale, fulfillment network and large buyer base, supported by AI tools across shopping, advertising and AWS. However, Amazon’s model remains more controlled and marketplace-centered, while Shopify’s agentic commerce push is focused on helping independent merchants surface products across emerging AI shopping channels.
Wix.com Ltd. (WIX - Free Report) provides a closer product-level comparison because it also serves merchants and small businesses building digital storefronts. Wix is using AI to simplify website creation, design and business workflows through tools such as Harmony and Base44. Its AI strategy is more focused on creation and site-building, while Shopify’s opportunity is tied more directly to commerce execution, including product discovery, checkout, payments and merchant services.
Against this backdrop, Shopify’s agentic commerce opportunity is distinct from Amazon’s marketplace-led scale and Wix’s website-creation focus. SHOP’s potential advantage is that its AI commerce push is being built on a platform already expanding across multiple merchant use cases, including online commerce, payments, Shop Pay, catalog infrastructure, POS and international selling. That broader commerce stack gives Shopify a wider transaction base through which AI-led discovery can translate into merchant activity over time.
SHOP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Shopify have declined 0.2% in the past three months against the industry’s 25.3% growth.
SHOP’s Stock Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP stock is currently trading at a premium. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 8.89, above the industry average of 7.6.
SHOP’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 55.6%. Estimates for 2026 earnings per share have remained unchanged in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of SHOP Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Shopify má už tento týden zakázat na své platformě všechny vaporizéry po tlaku amerických státních zástupců. V USA se zákaz má vztahovat na všechny vaporizéry bez ohledu na to, zda mají povolení FDA.
SummaryCompaniesShopify set to ban vapes from its web hosting platform, two sources saidGeographic scope of the expected ban unclearIn the U.S., ban covers both legal and illegal vapes, sources saidLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Shopify Inc (SHOP.TO), opens new tab will ban all vapes from its platform as soon as this week after pressure from a group of U.S. state attorneys general aiming to curb sales of illegal e-cigarettes online, according to two sources familiar with its plans.
The Ottawa-based company provides the underlying infrastructure that lets millions of merchants operate and scale e-commerce channels. It has been in talks since last year with a bipartisan coalition of 25 state attorneys general, who have been pushing Shopify to do more to clamp down on a booming market for vapes that lack the legally required licence for U.S. sales, or violate other laws.
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Unlicensed vapes, usually made in China, are widely available in the U.S. both online and in vape shops, convenience stores or gas stations despite being illegal to import or sell. The expected Shopify ban, first reported by Reuters, would mark the most significant win yet for the state law enforcement officials, who have been targeting the industry's infrastructure over concerns that illegal vapes put public health at risk.
"We've always prohibited illegal activity and take action when we become aware of merchants violating our policies," a Shopify spokesperson said in a statement, adding such internal decisions take into account global legal frameworks and are not based on feedback from any one group.
"We adjust our enforcement approach when legal changes call for it," the spokesperson said.
The expected ban could disrupt e-commerce sales and have a "chilling effect" on sellers, one of the sources said.
The illegal U.S. market for vapes is currently worth some $9 billion, according to British American Tobacco (BATS.L), opens new tab, whose U.S. business has been hit hard by their proliferation.
BAT did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has to date granted marketing authorisation to just 45 e-cigarette products, mostly tobacco-flavoured -- an approach that big tobacco companies such as BAT argue has stifled the legal market and fuelled illegal sales.
ILLEGAL VAPES DEPEND MORE ON E-COMMERCEIt was not immediately clear whether the ban would apply beyond the United States. Shopify did not answer a question on its geographic scope.
Other countries like India have banned vape sales altogether, while in Australia they can only be sold in pharmacies.
In the U.S., the Shopify ban will apply to all vapes regardless of whether they have required FDA authorisation, the two sources said.
A relatively small portion of authorised vape sales in the U.S. occur online, which should mean a limited effect on licensed players such as BAT or e-cigarette maker Juul, one of the sources said. E-commerce is a more important channel for illegal vapes, though they are also mostly sold in brick-and-mortar stores.
Separately, credit card company Mastercard (MA.N), opens new tab warned partners responsible for adding merchants to its network that unlicensed vape sales violate its standards, according to a global notice issued to partners in May and obtained by Reuters.
The state attorneys general in an April letter pushed Mastercard and other major card networks or payment processors to take stronger action to prevent their networks from being used to facilitate illegal vape sales.
Those partners, also known as acquirers, are financial institutions that act as a go-between to complete credit-card transactions.
Mastercard's notice said when acquirers register a merchant they are "attesting that all appropriate controls are in place" to make sure their activities don't violate the law. It recommended those companies implement controls involving reviewing and approving a merchant's product inventories, along with transaction and invoice monitoring.
Mastercard said it would launch investigations if stores selling illegal vapes used its services, potentially targeting both retailers and acquirers, with the risk of fines if they do not comply with their standards. "We have zero tolerance for unlawful activity on our network," Mastercard said.
($1 = £0.7581)Reporting by Emma Rumney; Additional reporting by Manya Saini and Deborah Sophia in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa Jucca and David Gaffen
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