In its upcoming report, Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly earnings of $0.66 per share, reflecting an increase of 32% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $9.44 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of 0.2%.
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.3% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.
Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as a yardstick to evaluate the company's quarterly performance, scrutinizing analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics can offer a more comprehensive perspective.
Bearing this in mind, let's now explore the average estimates of specific Starbucks metrics that are commonly monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Net Revenues- Company-operated stores' will reach $7.52 billion. The estimate indicates a change of -3.7% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts forecast 'Net Revenues- Licensed stores' to reach $1.24 billion. The estimate points to a change of +12.3% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for 'Net Revenues- Other' stands at $624.43 million. The estimate indicates a change of +16.1% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Net Revenues- Channel Development' reaching $558.27 million. The estimate indicates a change of +15.4% from the prior-year quarter.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Net Revenues- North America' will likely reach $7.29 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +5.3% from the prior-year quarter.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Net Revenues- Company-operated stores- International' at $920.14 million. The estimate points to a change of -39.7% from the year-ago quarter.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Net Revenues- Licensed stores- International' should come in at $535.29 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +15.1%.
Analysts predict that the 'Net Revenues- Licensed stores- North America' will reach $649.92 million. The estimate points to a change of +1.5% from the year-ago quarter.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Total Stores' will reach 39,717 . The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 41,097 .
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Total Stores - International' should arrive at 22,912 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 22,363 in the same quarter of the previous year.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Total Company-operated stores EOP' of 15,643 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 21,730 in the same quarter last year.
Analysts expect 'Total Licensed stores EOP' to come in at 23,660 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 19,367 in the same quarter last year.
View all Key Company Metrics for Starbucks here>>>
Over the past month, shares of Starbucks have returned +0.1% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. Currently, SBUX carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that its performance may align with the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
SBUX heads into Q3 earnings with improving traffic, loyalty momentum and product innovation, while investors await greater clarity on near-term growth.
Starbucks (SBUX -0.32%) is energizing investors' portfolios. Shares have climbed 24% so far in 2026, as of July 21. Should this positive trend hold up throughout the rest of the year, the business will put together its first gain since 2021. That's welcome news for investors who have gotten used to ongoing declines.
It's also noteworthy that this coffee stock is on track to beat the Nasdaq-100 index for the first time since 2022. Outperforming a well-known technology benchmark would certainly be a winning outcome.
Does Starbucks have more room to run?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Traffic trends are encouraging It wasn't that long ago when Starbucks was really struggling. Customers grew displeased with a worsening store experience, complex menus, and ongoing price increases, which all contributed to weaker traffic. The intensely competitive nature of the retail coffee market didn't make things easier.
The company reported declining year-over-year same-store sales in both fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025. Since this metric is critical for any retailer or restaurant, as it indicates the productivity of each location, it's no wonder the stock was under pressure.
The situation has improved. Traffic trends have been encouraging. In April, Starbucks reported its financial results for Q2 2026, ended March 29. And the management team revealed that global comparable transactions were up for a second straight quarter.
"Our US company-operated business grew transactions across all day parts," CEO Brian Niccol said on the Q2 2026 earnings call.
Starbucks is working to right the ship. The company's key priorities have been to re-establish cafes as a welcoming "Third Place," while boosting store operations with better staffing and equipment. Starbucks also innovated with new menu offerings to capture more sales during the afternoon.
The Starbucks rewards program has been updated, too. It now features membership tiers based on different spending levels, aiding in personalization and providing more benefits to the most loyal customers. This setup supports engagement and frequency. There are now a record 35.6 million members in the United States.
Starbucks set out to reduce its annual expenses by $2 billion, and there appears to be progress in this regard. The business raised its full-year profit guidance, now forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $2.25 to $2.45. At the midpoint, that implies a 10% year-over-year jump.
The turnaround isn't over, though. Getting back to healthy growth is the main goal. At Starbucks' investor day meeting in January this year, management laid out a target to achieve a 5% year-over-year revenue gain by fiscal 2028. The top line is expected to be flat in fiscal 2026, so there is still work to do.
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Should you buy the coffee chain's shares today? Starbucks is a high-quality business. It has a wide economic moat that's supported by an incredible brand and tremendous scale. These two traits, which have driven success in the past, give Starbucks a durable advantage in the crowded industry.
Another bullish argument focuses on the company's profit outlook. Starbucks' adjusted EPS will grow at a compound annual rate of 19.8% between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2028, according to consensus analyst estimates. That's an encouraging outlook.
But investors should remember that this bottom-line forecast isn't on solid ground. Starbucks is still in the middle of a turnaround that can present new challenges. Plus, the macroeconomic environment could weaken, pressuring demand for the premium food and beverage that Starbucks offers.
In addition, the valuation is expensive. The consumer discretionary stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 35.6. There is no margin of safety, adding greater downside risk to the equation. So this isn't a stock I'm thinking of buying.
Income investors, however, will have a different perspective. Starbucks' current dividend yield of 2.37% is more than double what the S&P 500 index offers. That payout has increased by 210% in the past decade. And Starbucks has paid a dividend for an impressive 66 straight quarters. T
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His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this coffee chain have returned +3.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, which Starbucks falls in, has lost 1.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Starbucks is expected to post earnings of $0.66 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +32%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.2%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $2.41 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +13.2%. This estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.05 indicates a change of +26.9% from what Starbucks is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.4%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Starbucks.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Starbucks, the consensus sales estimate of $9.44 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -0.2%. The $38.23 billion and $39.97 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +2.8% and +4.6%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryStarbucks reported revenues of $9.53 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.8%. EPS of $0.5 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.17 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +3.92%. The EPS surprise was +13.64%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Starbucks is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Starbucks. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Starbucks (SBUX 0.26%) earned about half as much in fiscal 2025 as it did the year before. Yet the stock is acting as if the opposite happened. Shares sit near $105 as of this writing, within about 4% of their 52-week high of $109.23.
That disconnect is the whole story with this stock right now. The market is paying up for CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround before it fully shows up in profits. And based on the number that leads this kind of recovery (customer traffic), there's a chance that the market has it right.
But can the turnaround's momentum persist?
The next piece of evidence arrives Wednesday, July 29, when the coffee giant reports fiscal third-quarter results.
Image source: Starbucks.
The traffic came back first Comparable store sales, which measure sales at locations open at least a year, trace the turnaround quarter by quarter. Starbucks' global comparable sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 -- its first increase in seven quarters. They rose 4% in the fiscal first quarter of 2026. Then, in the fiscal second quarter (the period ended March 29, 2026), they climbed 6.2%. That is three straight quarters of acceleration.
Even better is what's driving the growth. Global transactions rose 3.8% in the fiscal second quarter, and in the U.S., comparable sales jumped 7.1% on a 4.3% increase in transactions.
More customers are simply walking through the doors. That's the metric that spent the depths of the slump moving in reverse. The international business is participating as well, with comparable sales up 2.6% on 2.1% transaction growth.
The recovery is reaching the income statement, too. Fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 9% year over year to $9.5 billion. The company's GAAP operating margin expanded 180 basis points to 8.7%, and earnings per share rose 32% year over year to $0.45. Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share grew 22% to $0.50.
"Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth," said Niccol in the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings release.
Management raised its outlook alongside those results. Starbucks now expects global and U.S. comparable sales to grow at least 5% this fiscal year, up from prior guidance of about 3%, with non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share of $2.25 to $2.45.
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The profit hole it's still climbing out of About that halved profit. Starbucks earned $1.63 per share in fiscal 2025, down from $3.31 in fiscal 2024. Net income came in at just $1.9 billion, versus $3.8 billion the year before.
The collapse wasn't primarily a demand problem -- it was spending. Niccol's Back to Starbucks plan poured money into store labor to fix slow service. And the year absorbed $892 million in restructuring charges along with inflation in coffee costs.
That context is what makes the current stock price demanding. At about $105, Starbucks trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 45 based on the midpoint of this year's adjusted earnings-per-share guidance. A multiple like that assumes the traffic recovery continues and margins climb well beyond this year's guided levels for years to come. In other words, the market is already pricing in a completed turnaround.
So July 29 matters. The items worth checking are U.S. comparable sales and transactions holding anywhere near the fiscal second quarter's pace, operating margin continuing to expand, and any change to the full-year outlook. Comparisons against weak year-ago quarters get harder from here, so the growth rates may naturally cool even if the recovery stays on track.
To be fair to the bulls, turnarounds led by traffic tend to be the durable kind. Price increases can be copied or reversed. Getting millions of customers back into the habit of visiting is harder to fake, and that's what the transaction growth suggests is happening.
But the stock's valuation leaves little room for a stumble. If margins recover on schedule, today's buyers will probably do fine. If the recovery pauses for even a couple of quarters, a stock priced this richly could give back a lot of its gains quickly.
Overall, I'd call the turnaround itself on track -- and the stock fully priced for it. If I owned shares, I'd hold them and let Niccol keep executing. For new money, however, I'd wait: either for a better price, or for the July 29 report to show the margin recovery is running ahead of what the company has promised.
Key Takeaways SBUX's U.S. comps rose 7.1%, with transactions up more than 4% in the fiscal second quarter.Starbucks raised non-GAAP EPS guidance to $2.25-$2.45 as operating momentum strengthened.SBUX expects sales leverage and its $2B savings plan to support further margin recovery. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is showing tangible signs that its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround is translating into financial improvement. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company returned to year-over-year EPS growth for the first time in more than two years, while consolidated operating margin expanded for the first time since the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Starbucks also raised its full-year outlook, now expecting global and U.S. comparable sales growth of 5% or better, up from its prior outlook of at least 3%. The company also lifted its non-GAAP EPS guidance to $2.25-$2.45 from $2.15-$2.40, pointing to greater confidence in the recovery.
The improved outlook is being supported by stronger customer demand and transaction-led comp growth. U.S. comparable sales increased 7.1%, fueled by transaction growth of more than 4%, while U.S. company-operated morning transactions were roughly back to fiscal 2022 levels. The comp recovery was supported by Green Apron Service, improved staffing, service-time execution, delivery expansion and menu innovation. Starbucks Rewards membership also reached a record 35.6 million active members, strengthening the company’s digital engagement base.
Higher transaction volumes are becoming increasingly important because they can support operating leverage as sales recover. Starbucks expects sales leverage to build over the next two quarters, while its $2 billion cost-savings program remains on track through fiscal 2028. The company also expects coffee and tariff pressures to begin easing in the back half of fiscal 2026. These factors could help offset ongoing Back to Starbucks investments and support better margin flow-through.
International profitability and the China joint venture add another layer to the earnings recovery setup. Starbucks expects the China JV structure to be margin accretive, with the transaction expected to be relatively EPS neutral in fiscal 2026. The company also expects the transition to support a more capital-efficient model in China while allowing it to continue participating in the market’s long-term growth opportunity.
Starbucks’ ability to deliver sustainable earnings growth will likely depend on whether it can convert improving traffic into consistent operating leverage and margin expansion. Customer demand is recovering, guidance has moved higher and several operating initiatives are beginning to support stronger traffic, sales leverage and margin recovery. Together, these factors likely suggest that the Back to Starbucks turnaround is gaining financial traction.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 16.1% in the past year against the industry’s of 5.3% fall. In the same time frame, other industry players like Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) have gained 5.9%, while McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) has declined 7.3%.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.01, below the industry’s average of 3.30. Conversely, industry players, such as Dutch Bros and McDonald's, have P/S multiples of 4.95 and 6.51, respectively.
SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share has increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating an 13.2% rise in fiscal 2026. Conversely, industry players like McDonald's are likely to witness an increase of 5.4%, year over year, in 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Dutch Bros’ 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 22.4% year over year.
SBUX stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Bessemer Group Inc. raised its position in Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX – Free Report) by 10.1% during the first quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 66,925 shares of the coffee company’s stock after purchasing an additional 6,132 shares during the quarter. Bessemer Group Inc.’s holdings in Starbucks were worth $5,997,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Other hedge funds also recently bought and sold shares of the company. Brighton Jones LLC increased its stake in shares of Starbucks by 86.5% during the 4th quarter. Brighton Jones LLC now owns 176,722 shares of the coffee company’s stock worth $16,126,000 after purchasing an additional 81,952 shares during the last quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. lifted its stake in shares of Starbucks by 47.0% in the 2nd quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. now owns 3,642 shares of the coffee company’s stock valued at $334,000 after purchasing an additional 1,164 shares during the last quarter. Flow Traders U.S. LLC bought a new stake in Starbucks in the second quarter worth $288,000. Gamco Investors INC. ET AL boosted its holdings in Starbucks by 92.8% in the second quarter. Gamco Investors INC. ET AL now owns 5,225 shares of the coffee company’s stock worth $479,000 after purchasing an additional 2,515 shares in the last quarter. Finally, NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its position in Starbucks by 7.6% during the second quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 112,710 shares of the coffee company’s stock worth $10,328,000 after buying an additional 7,978 shares during the last quarter. 72.29% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Starbucks Trading Down 0.6% Shares of SBUX stock opened at $104.81 on Tuesday. The stock has a 50 day moving average of $102.54 and a two-hundred day moving average of $98.06. Starbucks Corporation has a 12 month low of $77.99 and a 12 month high of $109.23. The company has a market capitalization of $119.45 billion, a P/E ratio of 79.40, a P/E/G ratio of 2.10 and a beta of 0.98.
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, April 28th. The coffee company reported $0.50 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.44 by $0.06. The company had revenue of $9.53 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $9.17 billion. Starbucks had a negative return on equity of 29.24% and a net margin of 3.89%.Starbucks’s revenue for the quarter was up 8.8% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $0.41 EPS. Starbucks has set its FY 2026 guidance at 2.250-2.450 EPS. Sell-side analysts predict that Starbucks Corporation will post 2.4 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Starbucks Dividend Announcement The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, August 28th. Shareholders of record on Friday, August 14th will be issued a $0.62 dividend. This represents a $2.48 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.4%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, August 14th. Starbucks’s payout ratio is 187.88%.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of research analysts have weighed in on SBUX shares. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reissued a “buy” rating on shares of Starbucks in a research report on Wednesday, April 29th. Wedbush initiated coverage on Starbucks in a research note on Thursday, May 14th. They issued an “outperform” rating on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group initiated coverage on Starbucks in a research report on Thursday, May 14th. They set a “buy” rating for the company. Robert W. Baird raised their target price on Starbucks from $112.00 to $117.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Wednesday, April 29th. Finally, Tigress Financial began coverage on Starbucks in a report on Wednesday, April 15th. They set a “buy” rating and a $122.00 price target for the company. Nineteen analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have assigned a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Starbucks has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $109.42.
Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on SBUX
Insider Buying and Selling at Starbucks In other news, EVP Sara Kelly sold 2,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, April 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $105.00, for a total value of $210,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president owned 57,653 shares in the company, valued at approximately $6,053,565. This represents a 3.35% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO Brady Brewer sold 2,229 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, July 6th. The stock was sold at an average price of $104.00, for a total transaction of $231,816.00. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 77,364 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $8,045,856. The trade was a 2.80% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold a total of 8,687 shares of company stock worth $889,033 in the last three months. Insiders own 0.03% of the company’s stock.
About Starbucks (Free Report)
Starbucks Corporation is a global coffeehouse chain and roaster that operates, licenses and franchises coffee shops and related retail businesses. Founded in Seattle, Washington in 1971 by Jerry Baldwin, Zev Siegl and Gordon Bowker, the company grew from a single store focused on whole-bean coffee and equipment into a broad consumer-facing brand. Howard Schultz, who joined the company later and served in senior leadership roles, is widely credited with transforming Starbucks into a mass-market specialty coffee retailer and expanding its footprint internationally.
Starbucks’ core activities center on the retail sale of hot and cold specialty beverages, whole-bean and packaged coffees, teas and ready-to-drink products, along with complementary food items and merchandise such as mugs and brewing equipment.
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Luckin Coffee, which is based in China, has 33,596 locations, most of which are in its home country. However, it has begun expanding into Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and the US. It has started to expand across New York City, and its locations are impressive for food, coffee, cleanliness, and service. As it expands across America’s largest city, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) should start to be worried.
Food & Wine expects Luckin Coffee to expand quickly across the US. It compared the company to Starbucks. “Luckin, on the other hand, sells speed, novelty, and value, all in a cashless transaction.”
It would be wrong to give the impression that Luckin Coffee will severely dent Starbucks on its own. The competition is much larger and well-funded. Taken together, they represent a huge challenge to Starbucks’ sales and popularity.
Starbucks has about 17,000 locations in the US. Its two primary competitors are McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts. McDonald’s has about 14,000locations. It is extremely aggressive in its attempts to get breakfast customers with a large menu built for a wide range of customers, both in terms of price, speed of service, and menu items.
Dunkin’ Donuts is more oriented toward breakfast than McDonald’s. It has 10,000 locations. That means 24,000 locations from two huge and well-funded companies. It does not include smaller chains like Tim Hortons and Caribou Coffee, which together have over 1,000 stores, and the tens of thousands of local neighborhood stores.
Starbucks staged a rally after recent earnings, but now substantially trails the S&P over the last year. While the S&P is 18% higher, Starbucks is up 13%. Over the last five years, the figure has been much more brutal. The S&P is up 69%, and Starbucks is down 16% so much for what was supposed to be a major turnaround.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Starbucks didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
I have a lot of short conversations about dividend stocks. They go something like this:
“Oh, your specialty is dividend stocks? What do you think about XYZ?”
It’s almost always a stock that yields 2% or less. If I know a little about the company, I’ll start by saying something positive before I say, “Ah, well, I don’t really cover that one because I believe we deserve at least 3.5% dividend yield.”
I have a lot of great dividend ideas I’m more than happy to share with others, but the conversation usually ends there.
Today, I want to talk about three of those dividend-paying stocks that I frequently get asked about. None of them have a high enough yield for me to mark them a buy. But all are household names that I’m watching right now for an entirely different reason.
Consumer Spending Trickles Through By now, you’ve probably heard the buzz phrase the “K-shaped economy” or “K-shaped recovery.”
The idea first appeared on Twitter back in 2020 and was popularized by economist Peter Atwater. Now it’s used in every article talking about the current state of the economy.
Although the term is probably overused, it paints an accurate picture of our current economic condition: two distinct groups moving in two completely different directions.
Wealthier Americans and capital-intensive businesses are the upper arm of the K and moving upwards… while lower-income households and traditional businesses are the lower arm and struggling.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the top10% of earners account for 49.2% of all consumer spending. This statistic is quite eerie. In the run-up to the internet bubble, the richest 20% of Americans made up 50% of spending.
As someone wildly interested in economic theory and following the numbers, I am concerned about what this means for the economy. And I’m really curious about how such divergent spending patterns will affect corporate profits and potentially put the squeeze on dividend payments, especially for consumer discretionary companies.
Maximize Profit or Alienate Consumers There are a couple ways this could play out.
Companies could simply focus on the more affluent consumer and price the lower- and middle-income spenders out of their product completely. We know that’s the strategy of luxury and status goods.
There’s also the option of product differentiation for both ends of the market at drastically different price points. Or maybe this is where dynamic pricing comes into play.
Here are three companies I’ve been watching to see if consumers will in fact change their preferences due to price sensitivity.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) The company is in the headlines for exactly that. It recently rolled out three new “basic” fares in the premium cabins: First Basic, Delta Premium Select, and Basic Business.
You’ll get to sit in those cabins and experience all the in-flight benefits. The trade-off is seat assignment after check-in, fewer reward miles, reduced bag allowance, and not eligible for upgrades.
Time will tell if there is a market for these stripped-down versions of the “luxury” experience. I don’t fly Delta, but I talked to a friend that almost accidentally booked this class ticket through his company travel platform. His response: “absolutely not.”
CEO Ed Bastian also made headlines by saying that even if energy prices drop, fares will not. He admits that low-cost carriers are unable to compete, so Delta won’t worry about competing with those prices.
Last week, the company reported record quarterly revenue of $17.7 billion. This was up 14% and at the high end of management expectations. I’ll definitely be circling back in three months to hear management comments on the success of these new fares.
Delta shares are up 25% year to date, but its $0.215 quarterly dividend equals a yield of just 1%.
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) On a recent WSJ podcast, CEO Brian Niccol described going to Starbucks as a $9 premium experience. He said that whether the customer sees that as a splurge or affordable, the company must meet customer expectations. This was in response to the interviewer specifically asking about the K-shaped economy.
It’s clear that Niccol is sticking with his “Back to Starbucks” strategy in this economy. Some key changes are bringing back self-serve condiments, handwritten cup notes, and reducing wait times to four minutes or less.
He’s leaning into the “premium experience” to justify the price and it’s been working. Last quarter beat Wall Street expectations with global same store sales rising 6.2% year over year and consolidated revenue up 9%.
SBUX is also reportedly developing in-house software that uses AI to reduce the $400 million a year it currently pays to vendors for various software. Shares of the company are up 27% year to date, but its quarterly dividend of $0.62 is an annual yield of just 2.3%.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) This one is a little different due to product variations.
Approximately 46% of DIS revenue is experiences: parks, resorts, cruises, and consumer products. Yes, consumer products seem the opposite of experiences, but this includes all the items sold in its parks, resorts, and branded stores.
As a share of revenue, direct-to consumer streaming like Disney+ and Hulu is 41% and traditional cable and broadcast networks are 12%. The rest is content sales like theatrical film releases and licensing. I’ve been specifically looking at the experiences segment.
A day at Disney World will quickly reveal the strategy: offer different experiences to consumers. Those with the means will opt for Premier passes or VIP experiences to skip the lines. Those on a budget will suffer through triple-digit wait times for popular rides. I’m talking 105 or even 120 minutes stuck in the queue!
Last quarter, experiences revenue was up 7%, and total operating income modestly exceeded management’s guidance. Shares, however, are down 14% year to date as analysts worry about the headwinds faced by both the theme parks and direct-to-consumer streaming.
Even with the drop in shares, DIS semiannual payment of $0.75 equals a yield of just 1.5%.
I would not add any of these companies to my portfolio right now. But I will keep watching them as a way to follow the consumer dollar as the economy keeps traveling in two separate directions.
For more income, now and in the future,
Kelly Green
Originally published July 15, 2026
For more news, information, and strategy, visit ETF Trends.
For the past few years, the assessment of coffee stocks on Wall Street has been simple: The upstart was winning. Dutch Bros (BROS +4.42%) ran circles around the incumbent, while Starbucks (SBUX 2.66%) stumbled through slumping sales and a leadership shake-up.
In 2026, the script flipped hard. Starbucks shares climbed sharply this year, while Dutch Bros slid somewhat. The question now is whether the elephant can keep stepping on the challenger through the back half of the year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why Starbucks is suddenly winning The turnaround is real, and it has a name: "Back to Starbucks," the plan led by CEO Brian Niccol. After a long stretch of falling traffic, Starbucks coaxed customers back into its cafes, posting positive comparable sales after several quarters of declines and, crucially, seeing morning visits recover across the U.S.
The company credits simple, unglamorous fixes. These include better staffing, faster service, and a renewed focus on the in-store experience. They have helped bring some of the regulars back. When a business this size gets its foot traffic moving in the right direction again, the momentum tends to feed on itself. And management has grown confident enough to raise its outlook for the year.
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Dutch Bros hasn't actually stumbled Here's the twist worth appreciating: Dutch Bros' business is still humming. Revenue jumped more than 30% in its most recent quarter, and the company is opening well over 180 new shops this year as it marches toward more than 2,000 locations by the end of the decade.
Its stock fell not because sales cratered, but because the shares had run up so far that any cooling in enthusiasm, plus a jittery market for high-growth names, was enough to knock them down. In other words, this is a valuation reset for Dutch Bros.
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Which is the better buy for the second half? For the next six months, I lean toward Starbucks being a better buy. Its turnaround has visible momentum and clear near-term catalysts; its huge scale and dividend offer some ballast; and its international runway, especially in China, gives it room to grow. That combination makes it the steadier bet for the second half.
But steadier isn't the same as having higher upside. Dutch Bros, after its pullback, is the more interesting long-term growth story, with a store count that could multiply over the coming years. The risks cut both ways: Starbucks may have already priced in much of the good news after this year's run, while Dutch Bros still trades at a premium and must execute a rapid, unproven national expansion.
Dutch Bros stands out to me also because it barely resembles a traditional coffee chain. Most of its shops are small drive-thru and walk-up stands with little or no indoor seating, which keeps real estate costs low and lines moving fast.
Its culture is strong, too. Its employees, called "broistas," are trained to treat service at the window as a conversation, not a transaction. That upbeat, personal hospitality has built a genuinely devoted following -- especially among younger customers who favor Dutch Bros' customizable energy drinks and sweet, colorful concoctions over plain drip coffee.
The takeaway for investors Can Starbucks keep obliterating Dutch Bros in the second half? Probably, on momentum alone, but I'd expect the gap to narrow over the next two to five years as Dutch Bros' growth reasserts itself.
My honest read is that Starbucks is the better buy for investors who want a proven turnaround with less drama, while Dutch Bros suits those willing to trade near-term volatility for a longer growth runway. I think Dutch Bros is riskier but has a much higher upside for a multiyear investor.
Key Takeaways SBUX is driving growth through stronger traffic, Rewards engagement and improving global comparable sales.McDonald's is benefiting from value offerings, menu innovation and market share gains across key markets.Both companies face cost pressures but continue investing in digital and customer experience. The restaurant industry continues to face a mixed operating environment as consumers remain value-conscious and operators contend with higher labor and input costs. Even so, companies with strong brands, extensive digital ecosystems and disciplined expansion strategies continue to outperform the broader industry. Among them, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) and McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) remain two of the most closely watched restaurant stocks, each leveraging different strengths to drive growth.
Starbucks is working to accelerate its turnaround through operational improvements, menu innovation and a renewed focus on the customer experience, while McDonald's is capitalizing on the value platform, global scale and franchise-driven business model to sustain momentum. With both companies executing distinct growth strategies, investors may be wondering which restaurant stock offers the stronger mix of growth potential, earnings prospects and valuation. Let's take a closer look.
Starbucks' Turnaround Strategy Shows Promising SignsStarbucks appears to be making meaningful progress in its turnaround efforts. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company delivered year-over-year growth in both revenues and earnings for the first time in more than two years, supported by a 6% increase in global comparable-store sales and over 7% comparable sales growth in North America. U.S. transaction growth climbed above 4%, the strongest in three years, reflecting improving customer demand. Encouraged by the momentum, management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, now expecting global comparable sales growth of at least 5% and a higher earnings-per-share range.
This improvement has been driven by stronger execution across stores, disciplined menu innovation and a more engaging loyalty program. Starbucks highlighted that its Green Apron Service initiative has enhanced staffing, service speed and customer experience, while new beverage launches and bakery offerings have supported demand throughout the day.
The Starbucks Rewards program reached a record 35.6 million active U.S. members, with higher engagement and visit frequency following the program's redesign. International operations also strengthened, with all 10 of the company's largest overseas markets posting positive comparable sales for the first time in nine quarters, underscoring the broad-based nature of the recovery.
However, the turnaround is not without challenges. North American operating margins remained under pressure due to higher coffee costs, tariff-related inflation, increased product and distribution expenses, and legal accruals. Management also cautioned that macroeconomic uncertainty could affect consumer spending in the second half of fiscal 2026, even though demand has remained resilient thus far. While Starbucks expects commodity and tariff pressures to moderate later this year, sustaining traffic growth and executing on its cost-saving initiatives will be essential to support future margin expansion.
McDonald's Continues to Benefit From Its Value-Led StrategyMcDonald's continues to demonstrate resilience despite a challenging consumer backdrop by executing its value-focused growth strategy. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported 3.8% global comparable sales growth and 6% rise in systemwide sales (in constant currency), while gaining market share in nearly all of its top 10 markets. Management attributed the performance to disciplined execution across its three strategic pillars, value, marketing and menu innovation. The revamped McValue platform, featuring affordable everyday menu items and meal deals across multiple dayparts, has strengthened the company's value proposition and helped attract budget-conscious consumers without compromising traffic.
Beyond value, McDonald's is keeping customers engaged through impactful marketing campaigns and product innovation. Global promotions tied to entertainment franchises and digital activations have helped drive customer traffic, while beverage expansion under the McCafé brand and continued innovation across chicken and beef offerings are creating additional growth opportunities. The company also posted positive comparable sales across all operating segments, with particularly strong performances in markets such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia. Management remains confident that its combination of affordability, menu innovation and brand relevance will support market share gains throughout 2026.
However, management acknowledged that the operating environment remains challenging. Persistent inflation, elevated energy and beef costs, and pressure on lower-income consumers continue to weigh on the business. McDonald's also noted that U.S. company-operated restaurant margins were below expectations due to higher labor investments and restrained pricing, while franchisees are facing cash-flow pressure from rising input costs. Although the company reaffirmed the full-year outlook and expects its scale and supply chain to help manage inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty and cost pressures remain key risks to monitor.
What Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Indicate?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 2.8% and 12.7%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 sales and earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 5.5% and 5.7%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have been revised downward.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of SBUX & MCDSBUX’s shares have surged 12.8% in the past year. Meanwhile, MCD stock has declined 11.8%.
Starbucks is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 35.91X, well above McDonald's forward 12-month P/E ratio of 19.56X.
P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Final TakeBoth Starbucks and McDonald's currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting balanced near-term prospects. However, Starbucks appears to have a slight edge at this stage. The company's turnaround strategy is showing encouraging signs, including improved customer traffic, stronger operating execution and renewed momentum across its loyalty program and international business.
In contrast, while McDonald's continues to benefit from the value-led strategy and resilient global footprint, it remains more exposed to persistent cost pressures and cautious consumer spending. Although Starbucks trades at a richer valuation, the stronger earnings growth outlook, stable estimate revisions and improving business fundamentals make it the slightly more compelling restaurant stock at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Starbucks Corporation (Nasdaq: SBUX) plans to release its third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, with a conference call to follow at 1:15 p.m. Pacific Time. The conference call will be webcast, including closed captioning, and can be accessed on the company’s website at https://investor.starbucks.com/. A replay of the webcast will be available on the company’s website until the end of day, Friday, September 11, 2026.
About Starbucks
Since 1971, Starbucks Coffee Company has been committed to responsibly sourcing and roasting high-quality arabica coffee. Today, with a global footprint of more than 41,000 company-operated and licensed coffeehouses and a growing presence in consumer-packaged goods, we are the world's premier purveyor of specialty coffee. Through our unwavering commitment to excellence and our guiding principles, we bring the unique Starbucks Experience to life for every customer through every cup. To share in the experience, please visit us in our stores or online at about.starbucks.com or www.starbucks.com.
At $268, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) screens as more attractive on valuation, while at $106, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) looks fully priced.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) closed at $106.17 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.09% move from the prior day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.38%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.02%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 0.9%.
The coffee chain's stock has climbed by 5.66% in the past month, exceeding the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.77% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.27%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Starbucks in its upcoming earnings disclosure. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $0.65, marking a 30% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $9.44 billion, indicating a 0.19% decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $2.4 per share and revenue of $38.27 billion, which would represent changes of +12.68% and +2.91%, respectively, from the prior year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Starbucks. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.04% lower. Right now, Starbucks possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Starbucks is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 44.76. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 20.71.
We can also see that SBUX currently has a PEG ratio of 2.14. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Retail - Restaurants industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.97.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 190, putting it in the bottom 23% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
Key Takeaways Starbucks' Channel Development revenues grew 39% YoY in Q2, led by higher Global Coffee Alliance sales.SBUX's multi-serve Refreshers concentrate posted strong early demand and repeat purchases.Starbucks expanded its packaged portfolio with new ready-to-drink coffee and protein beverages. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) exited the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with stronger momentum in Channel Development, highlighting a revenue opportunity beyond its company-operated store base. In the fiscal second quarter, Channel Development net revenues increased 39% year over year, supported by higher revenues from the Global Coffee Alliance. The growth adds another source of revenue momentum as Starbucks builds across company-operated stores, licensed stores and consumer-packaged platforms.
The expansion is notable because it gives Starbucks an additional revenue path beyond company-operated stores, which remain central to the broader turnaround. Channel Development extends Starbucks’ presence across packaged coffee, ready-to-drink products and consumer-packaged platforms.
Product activity supported the segment’s momentum in the fiscal second quarter. Starbucks cited strong early performance for its multi-serve Refreshers concentrate in North America, calling it the company’s largest CPG launch in more than a decade. SBUX also noted strong customer reception and repeat purchase behavior for the product, reinforcing the relevance of its packaged-beverage innovation.
The ready-to-drink portfolio adds another growth layer. Starbucks launched coffee and protein ready-to-drink beverages at the end of the fiscal second quarter, complementing its growing protein platform in coffeehouses. Alongside the Global Coffee Alliance and Refreshers concentrate, these launches broaden the company’s packaged-beverage portfolio.
Overall, company-operated stores remain central to Starbucks’ broader recovery, but Channel Development is becoming a more visible incremental revenue opportunity. Continued momentum in the Global Coffee Alliance, early traction in CPG Refreshers and new ready-to-drink coffee and protein launches could make the segment a more meaningful contributor to Starbucks’ broader revenue growth over time.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 19.2% in the past year against the industry’s 3.5% fall. In the same time frame, other industry players like McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) have lost 6.8%, while Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) has gained 4.1%.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.08, below the industry’s average of 3.37. McDonald's and Dutch Bros have P/S ratios of 6.62 and 4.98, respectively.
SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $2.40 in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fiscal 2026 EPS suggests a 12.7% year-over-year improvement. Conversely, industry players like McDonald's and Dutch Bros are likely to witness growth of 5.8% and 22.4%, respectively, year over year in 2026 earnings.
SBUX’s Zacks RankSBUX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Starbucks?Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.67 a share, just 21 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 4, 2026.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.67 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.65 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Starbucks has an Earnings ESP of +2.82%. Investors should also know that SBUX is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SBUX is part of a big group of Retail and Wholesale stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Williams-Sonoma (WSM - Free Report) as well.
Slated to report earnings on August 26, 2026, Williams-Sonoma holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $2.08 a share 43 days from its next quarterly update.
For Williams-Sonoma, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03 is +2.34%.
SBUX and WSM's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Starbucks (SBUX +2.02%) has decided it can build better software than Microsoft (MSFT +1.55%) and IBM (IBM +1.65%). If nothing else, it wants to save costs with a homemade version of some high-priced enterprise software platforms.
That is either visionary cost-cutting or a case study in corporate hubris waiting to happen.
According to an internal Starbucks presentation reviewed by Bloomberg News, the coffee chain is developing AI-powered tools to replace a Microsoft inventory-tracking system and an IBM maintenance management platform. Starbucks spends about $400 million a year on software, and Chief Technology Officer Anand Varadarajan told employees there are "clear opportunities to reduce the spend."
The market took notice. Microsoft fell 2.4% and IBM dropped 5.2% as the Bloomberg article was published on Thursday morning. Starbucks rose more than 3% on the potentially cost-saving news. Toast (TOST +2.93%) shares enjoyed a short-lived 2.3% spike at the same time.
Image source: Getty Images.
The "we'll just build it ourselves" phase Every company goes through this. The software bills pile up, someone in the C-suite discovers that AI can write code now, and suddenly the business plan includes "proprietary platform development."
But easier to build does not mean easier to maintain. Enterprise-scale systems require ongoing security updates, integration work, and dedicated engineering headcount. Starbucks recently gave up on an AI-powered inventory tracking system and reverted to manual asset counts. That's a stark reminder that internal development comes with its own failures and costs.
To be fair, Starbucks has the scale and resources to pull this off. The grand cost-cutting plan aims to slash annual costs by more than $2 billion, and software is just a small part of this effort.
The long-term question is whether companies that pursue in-house AI builds will eventually seek out modern, vertically integrated platforms once the maintenance burden rears its ugly head.
That's where Toast comes in.
Toast is playing a different game Toast operates a cloud-based platform for restaurants that combines point-of-sale hardware, payment processing, and operational software. Wherever data or software is involved in running a single restaurant or a whole chain, Toast has integrated that issue into its comprehensive system.
The company ended Q1 2026 with 171,000 live locations, up 22% year over year, and has been expanding aggressively into enterprise accounts. Recent wins include Hungry Howie's (500 units), Papa Murphy's, and Preferred Hotels.
"We continue to see strong growth, and with the pipeline in front of us, I am confident enterprise will be a meaningful growth driver for years to come," CEO Aman Narang said in May's Q1 earnings call. "For 14 years, we have evolved from a point-of-sale solution into a comprehensive system of record, helping customers manage operations, employees, guests, and suppliers."
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Why the Starbucks situation matters for Toast investors Toast is not going to win the Starbucks account tomorrow, and probably not ever. Starbucks has a firmly established mobile app, a massive loyalty program, and the kind of global complexity that would make any outside vendor nervous. Maybe it takes a giant like IBM or Microsoft to handle the chain's inventory management.
But the Starbucks news highlights two dynamics that seem to favor specialists like Toast over the long term:
Legacy software vendors are vulnerable. Oracle (ORCL 4.30%) Simphony, the point-of-sale (POS) system Starbucks has been trying to replace for years, represents the kind of modular enterprise software that can be replaced. Large enterprises are willing to spend to solve operational pain points. The $400 million Starbucks spends annually on software represents the scale of tech operations budgets that could eventually flow to modern third-party platforms. Right now, that experiment is AI-assisted in-house development. In a few years, when the maintenance bills arrive and the original developers have moved on, some of those companies should start shopping for integrated platforms built by specialists. You know, with built-in support and maintenance contracts.
That is where Toast wants to be. The company has been embedding AI throughout its operations in recent years. As a result, Toast's engineering velocity (aka software development efficiency) is up 60%, and AI now handles 40% of customer support interactions. Toast IQ, the company's analytics and agent platform, has 40,000 weekly active locations. Pilot users of its AI marketing agent reported an 8% average increase in sales.
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The investment case The stock trades at about 45 times trailing earnings, which is not exactly cheap. But Toast has been profitable since 2024, has grown revenue at least 24% every year for the past six years, and just posted 21% GAAP operating margins.
The Starbucks news is not necessarily a reason to buy Toast today. But investors should watch the enterprise software market and consider which companies are positioned to benefit when the in-house AI experiments run their course.
Toast has a seat at that table. Whether it gets served remains to be seen.
Starbucks (SBUX) delivered Q2 revenue of $9.53B and 22% YoY EPS growth, confirming its turnaround and justifying a bullish outlook. SBUX raised FY2026 guidance, with global comps up 6.2%, margin expansion, and a robust 15-year dividend growth track record supporting its investment case. Operational improvements, a $2B cost savings program leveraging AI, and international expansion—especially in India and China—are key forward growth drivers.
Starbucks vyvíjí interní nástroje s pomocí umělé inteligence, které by mohly nahradit některé softwarové aplikace, jež v současnosti nakupuje od společností Microsoft a IBM. Podle interní prezentace, kterou získala agentura Bloomberg, kavárenský řetězec vytváří alternativy k systému Microsoftu pro sledování zásob a k nástroji IBM pro správu údržby. Některé z těchto interně vyvinutých řešení by mohly být nasazeny do konce příštího roku, pokud testování dopadne úspěšně.
Po mnoho let byly firmy silně závislé na svých technologických dodavatelích kvůli obavám z narušení provozu a složitosti vývoje vlastních systémů. Umělá inteligence však tuto situaci mění, protože usnadňuje vytváření aplikací od základu a zároveň firmy motivují zaměstnance k využívání těchto technologií.
Přední softwarové společnosti čelí rostoucím obavám ohledně toho, zda dokážou odolávat konkurenci ze strany produktů vytvářených startupy nebo dokonce jejich vlastními zákazníky za pomoci AI. Tento trend letos negativně doléhá na akcie softwarových firem. Jak Microsoft, tak IBM výrazně zaostávají za indexem S&P 500 a jsou od počátku roku v červených číslech.
Starbucks utratí ročně přibližně 400 milionů dolarů pouze za software, uvedl technologický ředitel společnosti Anand Varadarajan během interního setkání se zaměstnanci na začátku letošního roku. Podle záznamu schůzky, který Bloomberg přezkoumal, Varadarajan uvedl, že existují jasné příležitosti ke snížení výdajů na software.
Vlastní software může být levnější, což je významná motivace pro společnosti jako Starbucks, která se v rámci širší strategie obnovy snaží snížit náklady o dvě miliardy dolarů. Z dlouhodobého hlediska však vlastní vývoj může vést k vyšším nákladům na údržbu a pracovní sílu.
Podle prezentace společnost v oblasti technologií přezkoumává „každou smlouvu a každou službu“. V některých případech to znamená vyvíjet vlastní produkty jako náhradu za software, který musí její inženýři stejně rozsáhle upravovat podle vlastních potřeb.
Podle osob obeznámených se situací, které nebyly oprávněny veřejně hovořit, Starbucks již několik let pracuje na vývoji pokladního systému (point-of-sale system), který by nahradil řešení Oracle Simphony.
Starbucks se k celé záležitosti odmítl vyjádřit. Ve svém blogovém příspěvku z počátku roku společnost uvedla, že umělá inteligence a další technologické inovace podpoří její dlouhodobý růst a umožní baristům věnovat více času zákaznickému servisu.
Podle interní prezentace hrálo klíčovou roli při vývoji platformy, která by mohla nahradit nástroj IBM, programování s podporou AI. Starbucks zároveň aktivně podporuje technologické pracovníky v používání umělé inteligence a podle dřívějších informací agentury Bloomberg dokonce hodnotí její využívání jako součást systému bonusů.
Přesto existuje skepse ohledně toho, nakolik a jak rychle dokáže AI urychlit a automatizovat práci. Starbucks například nedávno stáhl systém pro sledování zásob v prodejnách založený na AI a vrátil se k manuálnímu počítání. Společnost také nadále využívá software od externích dodavatelů, včetně produktů společnosti Microsoft.
Tým podnikových technologií Starbucks je podle interní prezentace na cestě snížit svůj rozpočet přibližně o 30 milionů dolarů ve fiskálním roce končícím koncem září. Z toho asi 10 milionů dolarů představují úspory ve výdajích na software.
Dalších 13 milionů dolarů společnost ušetří především omezením spolupráce s externími kontraktory z poradenských a profesionálních služeb a nahrazením některých pozic vlastními zaměstnanci.
Starbucks zároveň buduje technologická pracoviště v Nashvillu a v Indii, kde bude část technologických pracovníků působit. Další zaměstnanci zůstanou v centrále společnosti v Seattlu. Od února loňského roku firma zrušila přibližně 2 300 pracovních míst, včetně mnoha pozic v technologických týmech.
Enterprise technology has long operated as a toll bridge for modern businesses. Software providers charge recurring licensing fees based on user counts and consumption, creating a permanent liability on corporate balance sheets.
However, the technology landscape is experiencing a structural fracture. Mega-brands are realizing they no longer need to rent their digital infrastructure when they possess the proprietary data and capital to build it themselves.
The era of paying perpetual licensing fees to keep the lights on is facing a severe existential threat from artificial intelligence (AI). Businesses with rich historical data sets are now realizing they hold the keys to their own backend systems.
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Starbucks Grinds Down Vendor DependencyStarbucks Today
$106.01 -0.40 (-0.38%)
As of 07/10/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$77.99▼
$108.88Dividend Yield2.34%
P/E Ratio80.31
Price Target$108.92
Starbucks Corporation NASDAQ: SBUX is currently dismantling its legacy software integrations. The company is actively developing internal artificial intelligence tools to replace entrenched vendor applications from Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ: MSFT and International Business Machines NYSE: IBM.
This transition represents a structural shift in enterprise strategy. By weaponizing sovereign AI, a custom-built, internally owned digital architecture, Starbucks is targeting its sprawling $400 million annual software spend. The mandate is highly precise. The enterprise technology division is programmed to trim $30 million from its near-term budget, and that factors in an immediate $10 million reduction in software costs.
Initial deployments, slated for late 2027, will focus on replacing Microsoft inventory management systems and IBM maintenance-tracking software. Tying technology division compensation to internal AI adoption ensures organizational alignment with this broader cost-cutting directive.
Frothing Margins Against Bitter HeadwindsDeveloping proprietary software does not occur in a vacuum. Starbucks is deploying sovereign AI as a mandatory margin defense mechanism against severe macroeconomic pressures. Elevated Arabica coffee futures and structural labor wage increases are actively squeezing unit-level economics across the physical economy. Simultaneously, competition from heavily optimized drive-thru operators like Dutch Bros NYSE: BROS and 7 Brew, alongside fortified beverage segments at legacy fast-food chains, demands aggressive capital reallocation.
When you examine the financial mechanics of this pivot, the core advantage lies in transitioning technology costs from operating expenses to capital expenditures. Perpetual software-as-a-service licensing fees drain cash flow linearly as a business grows. By developing sovereign AI, Starbucks pays the upfront development costs and amortizes them over time. This architectural shift from rented software to proprietary infrastructure creates immediate structural accretion for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The underlying business is already demonstrating resilience. Starbucks recently reported earnings per share of 50 cents, topping consensus estimates of 44 cents. This earnings beat was driven by an 8.8% year-over-year revenue increase. Structurally offsetting a $400 million recurring liability reinforces top-line growth and protects the bottom line from volatile commodity pricing and rising barista wages.
Evaporating Moats in the Software SectorThe implications of this strategy extend far beyond the retail and restaurant sectors. If a non-tech operator successfully proves it can eliminate hundreds of millions in vendor spend using agentic AI and automated coding tools, legacy software providers face an unprecedented risk of systemic enterprise churn. AI is widely viewed as a primary revenue driver for technology stocks, yet it is simultaneously acting as a potent deflationary lever for the broader market.
When consumer-facing brands leverage artificial intelligence to write their own backend solutions, the traditional economic moats surrounding enterprise software begin to evaporate. The market is already beginning to price in this reality.
Shares of established software providers experienced immediate 3% to 5% pre-market declines as reports of the Starbucks initiative surfaced. Forward-thinking institutional managers recognize that up to 20% of all enterprise software spending faces exposure to this type of agentic arbitrage in the coming years. If Starbucks can build bespoke inventory-tracking systems for a fraction of the cost of renting them from Microsoft, other Fortune 500 organizations will inevitably follow suit.
Pricing in the Perfect Espresso ShotOverall MarketRank™75th Percentile
Analyst RatingModerate Buy
Upside/Downside2.7% Upside
Short Interest LevelBearish
Dividend StrengthModerate
News Sentiment0.78 Insider TradingSelling Shares
Proj. Earnings Growth27.92%
See Full Analysis
Looking at current market pricing, Starbucks shares are trading near $107, up 27% year to date. While the trailing price-to-earnings ratio sits at an elevated 81.28, forward projections signal a sharp contraction to 44.72 as cost efficiencies and revenue growth materialize. Starbucks also offers a reliable 2.31% dividend yield, supported by an operating cash flow of $3.82 per share.
The options market reflects a distinct bullish bias regarding these operational shifts. Options volume spiked toward 60,000 contracts in early June 2026, heavily weighted by call activity concentrated at the $103 strike price.
Meanwhile, short interest hovers around a very healthy 4% to 5% of the total float. This level of short interest indicates standard institutional hedging behavior rather than concentrated, systemic betting against Starbucks and its operational viability.
The Final Pour: Weighing the Execution RisksTransitioning away from entrenched software vendors introduces material execution risk. Building and maintaining proprietary AI architecture demands highly specialized engineering talent, which shifts payroll burdens from the retail floor to the technology department.
Starbucks must now compete with Silicon Valley for the developers needed to maintain these systems. Material failures during the late-2027 testing phases could trigger immediate unit-level operational disruptions, negatively impacting regional inventory availability and equipment maintenance schedules.
However, the strategic calculus suggests this deployment is a necessary evolution. Sovereign AI has evolved past a pure-play tech concept, emerging as a lucrative blueprint for enterprise independence. Passive and active fund managers tracking free cash flow expansion will likely continue rotating capital into consumer equities that successfully demonstrate these technology-driven cost efficiencies.
Investors may want to add Starbucks to their watchlists as earnings momentum builds, paying close attention to how management quantifies internal software savings in upcoming quarterly calls. Monitoring the successful execution of this $400 million budget restructuring could provide a distinct advantage for those looking to identify the next wave of structural margin expansion in the retail sector.
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Bloomberg Restaurants Reporter Daniela Sirtori joined Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton to elaborate on her story, Starbucks Taps AI to Cut Reliance on Microsoft, IBM Software. Starbucks Corp. is developing in-house tools with the help of artificial intelligence that could replace some software applications it now buys from companies such as Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. The coffee chain is building alternatives to a Microsoft system that tracks inventory and an IBM tool that manages maintenance, according to an internal presentation reviewed by Bloomberg News.
Starbucks is developing in-house systems that could replace software it buys from Big Tech companies, Bloomberg News reported Thursday (July 9).
The coffee chain is working on alternatives to a system from Microsoft that monitors inventory as well as a maintenance management tool from IBM, the report said, citing an internal presentation.
Starbucks has also been working for several years on creating a point-of-sale system that would replace Oracle Simphony, according to the report.
Starbucks declined to comment when reached by PYMNTS beyond sharing a company blog post about its approach to AI.
The moves are part of a larger shift happening in the business world.
“For two decades, buying enterprise software meant accepting a vendor’s feature set, paying per seat and hiring specialists to manage the platform,” PYMNTS reported Wednesday (July 8). “For small businesses, that model often meant paying for capabilities they never used. AI coding tools are changing that calculation.”
Five startups and small companies with staff ranging from 20 to 70 people switched from working with Salesforce and HubSpot in the last six months, turning instead to in-house applications built using AI tools from Anthropic, Lovable and Replit. These businesses reduced software costs by 40% to 80%.
Research and advisory firm Gartner found that up to $234 billion of enterprise application software spending will be exposed to agentic arbitrage by the end of 2030, or roughly 20% of all enterprise software-as-a-service spending.
“Agentic AI changes the economics of software,” George Brocklehurst, managing vice president at Gartner, said in a July 1 news release.
Retool, a low-code platform for building custom internal tools, found that 35% of enterprises have already swapped out at least one SaaS tool with a custom-built alternative, with 78% saying they intend to develop more this year.
Starbucks spends roughly $400 million per year just on software, Chief Technology Officer Anand Varadarajan told employees in an internal forum earlier this year, according to the Bloomberg report.
“There’s clear opportunities to reduce the spend in software,” Varadarajan said, per the report.
While in-house software can be cheaper for companies like Starbucks, which hopes to lower costs by $2 billion for its turnaround plan, building can lead businesses to pay more for maintenance and labor, the report said.
Consumer sentiment just hit 44.8 in May 2026, down 5 points from April and firmly in recessionary territory. Yet the actual spending data tells a different story: Total personal consumption expenditures climbed to $22,059.8 billion in May 2026, with recreational goods, clothing and food services all showing year-over-year growth.
That gap between mood and money is exactly the kind of setup that creates opportunity in beaten-down consumer names with credible turnaround catalysts. Below are three worth putting on the July watch list.
Nike (NKE): Deep Reset, Real Signs of Life Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) is the cleanest “beaten-down” name of the group. Shares traded around $42.30 on July 8, down over 33% year to date and nearly 43% over the past year. The five-year picture is worse: -73.73% from July 2021. That is a full valuation reset.
The catalyst is Elliott Hill’s Sport Offense strategy, and Q1 FY27 delivered the first tangible proof it is working. Nike posted EPS of 72 cents versus the 13-cent estimate, a 465.59% beat and the seventh consecutive EPS beat on revenue of $10.97B (+1.09% versus estimates). Gross margin expanded roughly 900 basis points to about 49.2%, helped by a $986 million one-time IEEPA tariff recovery benefit that contributed $0.52 of EPS. Wholesale finally re-inflected, up 4% to $6.60 billion with North America revenue up 3%. Hill told investors, “In fiscal 2026, we took decisive actions to strengthen the foundation of NIKE, Inc. and reposition our business for long-term growth.”
Prediction-market sentiment has moved with the tape. Nike’s composite sentiment score sits at 59.6, a seven-day change of +27.07 points, reflecting a rapid shift as the quarter landed.
Risk: The top line is still shrinking -1.1% year-over-year, Nike Direct fell 7% and Converse cratered 32% and Greater China dropped 17% on a currency-neutral basis. Strip out the tariff windfall and the earnings picture is far more modest. Jim Cramer summarized the bear case on his June 5 show: “Nike can work if the turnaround becomes visible and the product feels strong again… right now, the burden of proof is on them.”
Starbucks (SBUX): Turnaround Confirmed, Still Below Prior Highs Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) has recovered from its beaten-down lows but remains a turnaround story worth watching. Shares traded around $102.89 as of July 8, and the stock is still down 12.41% over the past five years despite a nearly 23% year-to-date gain. Investors who missed the initial Niccol trade are getting a second look at a business that is now inflecting.
Q2 FY26 was the confirmation quarter. Adjusted EPS of 50 cents beat the 44-cent estimate by 13.64% on revenue of $9.53 billion (+8.8% YoY). Global comp sales rose 6.2%, with transactions up 3.8% and ticket up 2.3%. North America comps hit +7.1%. Operating income surged 37.79% to $828.1M. CEO Brian Niccol was direct: “Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth.” Management raised FY26 guidance to global comp sales growth of at least 5% and non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 to $2.45.
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The dividend backs the thesis. Starbucks pays 62 cents per quarter and has raised the payout for 64 consecutive quarters with a 17% CAGR. Food-services PCE at $1,538.3 billion in May, the highest in the dataset, gives the macro tailwind.
Risk: North America operating margin contracted 170 basis points on labor investments, tariffs, and coffee costs, the China JV transition to Boyu Capital creates near-term revenue noise, and the balance sheet carries a negative shareholders’ equity of $8.5 billion.
McDonald’s (MCD): Dividend Aristocrat on Sale McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) is the defensive leg of this trio. Shares traded around $278.24 on July 8, down 8.25% year to date and 4.60% over the past year. That pullback from prior highs is enough to reset the risk/reward on one of the most reliable global cash-flow machines.
Q1 FY26 was a broad-based beat. EPS of $2.83 topped the $2.74 estimate by 3.11% on revenue of $6.52 billion (+9.4% YoY). Global comp sales rose 3.8%, versus -1.0% a year ago, with US comps at +3.9% and International Operated Markets at +3.9%. Operating income climbed 11.52% to $2.95 billion. CEO Chris Kempczinski credited execution: “McDonald’s delivered this quarter. Our 6% global Systemwide sales growth shows how we executed with discipline.” Loyalty is the underappreciated engine, with systemwide sales to loyalty members exceeding $9 billion in Q1 alone and $38 billion trailing 12 months across 70 markets.
Income investors get a $1.86 quarterly dividend after a 5% raise in October 2025, plus $393 million in Q1 2026 buybacks (1.3 million shares). Free cash flow of $7.19B in FY25 funds it all.
Risk: Company-owned US margins remain pressured by inflation, interest expense is climbing 4% to 6%, and the balance sheet shows negative shareholders’ equity of $1.79 billion. Tariff and geopolitical risk on international traffic is a real overhang.
What to Watch Next The through-line here is a divergence: consumer sentiment is at recessionary lows while actual dollars spent keep rising. If sentiment stabilizes off the 44.8 May 2026 low, beaten-down consumer names with self-help catalysts should catch the biggest bid. June and July sentiment prints are the key tell.
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Index Dow Jones -0,12 % na 52286,93 b., S&P 500 +0,32 % na 7506,42 b., Nasdaq Composite +0,53 % na 26008,92 b.
Technologické akcie dnes táhnou index S&P 500 nahoru, podpořeny silnou poptávkou po americkém IPO jihokorejského výrobce paměťových čipů SK Hynix. Nabídka je podle lidí obeznámených s danou záležitostí více než sedmkrát přepsána. Cena emise byla stanovena na 149 USD za jeden americký depozitní certifikát, přičemž akcie se mají začít obchodovat na burze v pátek.
Micron (+7,2 %) oznámil urychlení plánovaných investic do amerických výrobních závodů a technologií. Celkové výdaje by měly do roku 2035 přesáhnout 250 mld. USD, oproti původně plánovaným 200 mld. USD. Cílem je vyrábět 40 % veškeré paměti DRAM v USA, přičemž první výstup z výrobní linky v Idahu se očekává v polovině roku 2027.
Naopak akcie Paramount Skydance klesají 7,8 % poté, co analytická společnost Arete Research snížila své doporučení na „prodat" a stanovila nejnižší cílovou cenu na trhu. Důvodem je obava z vysokého zadlužení, které by společnosti přinesla případná fúze s Warner Bros. Discovery.
Akcie IBM a Microsoftu také oslabují poté, co Bloomberg News informoval, že Starbucks vyvíjí vlastní interní nástroje s pomocí umělé inteligence, které by mohly nahradit software nakupovaný od těchto společností. Řetězec káváren buduje alternativy k systému Microsoftu pro sledování zásob a nástroji IBM pro správu údržby. Část nového softwaru by mohla být nasazena do konce příštího roku, pokud projde testováním.
Výrobce nápojů a potravin PepsiCo (-4,8 %) zveřejnil výsledky hospodaření za druhé čtvrtletí roku fiskálního roku 2026. Organické tržby vzrostly o 2,4 %, čímž mírně zaostaly za odhadem analytiků, přičemž segment potravin v Severní Americe organicky klesl o 2 %. Tržby a jádrový zisk na akcii odhady mírně překonaly a společnost potvrdila celoroční výhled organického růstu tržeb.
Společnost Meta Platforms (-2,7 %) plánuje od září zahájit výrobu vlastního AI čipu, a to jako součást plánu na navýšení celkové výpočetní kapacity na 14 gigawattů v příštím roce. Vyplývá to z interního mema, které měla agentura Reuters k dispozici.
Index S&P 500 +0,32 % na 7506,42 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Informační technologie +1,5 % Nezbytná spotřeba -1,8 % Průmysl +0,9 % Komunikační služby -1,5 % Utility +0,2 % Zbytná spotřeba -0,7 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Lam Research Corp (LRCX) +11 % Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY) -7,8 % Lumentum Holdings (LITE) +10,0 % PepsiCo (PEP) -4,8 % Applied Materials (AMAT) +9,6 % FactSet Research Systems (FDS) -4,4 % KLA Corp (KLAC) +9,4 % Palantir Technologies (PLTR) -4,0 % Ciena Corp (CIEN) +8,6 % Gartner (IT) -3,8 % Zdroj: Bloomberg
Key Takeaways Starbucks returned to year-over-year revenue and earnings growth while raising its fiscal 2026 outlook.SBUX is benefiting from stronger customer traffic, rewards growth and continued menu innovation.International momentum, including China, and higher earnings estimates support Starbucks' turnaround. Starbucks Corporation’s (SBUX - Free Report) shares have rallied 23.1% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry’s 1.9% growth. The strong momentum has pushed the stock close to its 52-week high of $108.88. Yesterday, Starbucks closed at $103.61, just 4.8% below that peak, reflecting growing investor confidence in its turnaround strategy.
Starbucks' recent rally reflects growing confidence in its turnaround strategy. The company posted its first year-over-year revenue and earnings growth in more than two years, raised the fiscal 2026 outlook and benefited from strong comparable sales, improving customer traffic, successful menu innovation and a stronger Starbucks Rewards program, reinforcing investor optimism.
Even among the top industry players, SBUX stands tall, outperforming McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) , Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) and Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) .
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Turnaround Strategy Is Delivering ResultsOne of the biggest catalysts behind Starbucks stock rally has been its return to revenue and earnings growth. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Starbucks reported year-over-year growth in both metrics for the first time in more than two years. Global comparable-store sales rose 6%, driven by more than 7% comparable sales growth in North America and strong transaction gains across all dayparts. Importantly, management noted that customer traffic reached its strongest level in three years, indicating that the company's operational improvements are encouraging consumers to visit more frequently.
The turnaround has been supported by the rollout of the Green Apron Service model, which focuses on better staffing, faster service and improved customer experience. Starbucks reported rising customer satisfaction scores while maintaining service speed despite handling higher transaction volumes. The company is also introducing scheduled mobile order pickup, which should improve convenience and throughput. These initiatives are helping restore Starbucks' premium customer experience while increasing store productivity.
Innovation and Loyalty Are Driving DemandStarbucks continues to strengthen customer engagement through product innovation and an upgraded loyalty ecosystem. New beverage launches, including premium Matcha drinks, energy refreshers and seasonal offerings, have generated strong demand and expanded afternoon sales opportunities. The company also highlighted rapid growth in its Cold Foam platform and refreshers business, which continues to attract younger consumers.
At the same time, Starbucks Rewards has become a key growth engine. Active U.S. Rewards membership reached a record 35.6 million, while the redesigned program has increased customer engagement and visit frequency. Management noted that the new 60-star redemption option has quickly become the most popular reward, supporting repeat visits and reinforcing customer loyalty. These initiatives, combined with targeted marketing, have helped improve brand affinity to its highest level in five years.
International Momentum Adds Another Growth AvenueThe recovery is no longer limited to North America. Starbucks reported positive comparable sales across all 10 of its largest international markets for the first time in nine quarters. China recorded another quarter of transaction-led growth, while Japan and South Korea delivered particularly strong performances.
The recently completed partnership with Boyu Capital also positions Starbucks China for long-term expansion while reducing capital intensity. Management expects the new licensing structure to improve profitability and support faster expansion across more than 1,500 Chinese county-level cities over the next three years. The company also reaffirmed plans to open 600-650 net new stores globally in fiscal 2026, providing another growth catalyst.
What Could Slow the Rally?Despite the encouraging progress, several risks could temper Starbucks stock’s momentum.
Management acknowledged that the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. Although customer demand has remained resilient, executives cautioned that higher fuel prices and broader economic pressures could eventually weigh on consumer spending. Starbucks incorporated this uncertainty into its updated fiscal 2026 guidance, suggesting management remains cautious despite recent strength.
Margin pressures have not disappeared. Product and distribution costs remain elevated due to coffee inflation, tariffs and innovation-related expenses. While Starbucks expects these headwinds to ease in the second half of fiscal 2026, any rebound in commodity prices or prolonged tariff impacts could pressure profitability.
Sustaining the rally will require continued flawless execution of the "Back to Starbucks" strategy. The company is making significant investments in labor, technology and store upgrades, and investors will expect these investments to continue generating stronger traffic, higher comparable sales and expanding margins. Any slowdown in execution or a weakening of consumer demand could reduce enthusiasm for the turnaround.
SBUX’s Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS moved up in the last 60 days, indicating positive sentiment among analysts for its earnings.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Taking a Look at Starbucks’ ValuationSBUX stock is trading below the industry. With a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 2.98X, below its industry average. Meanwhile, other industry players like McDonald's, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Yum! Brands are trading at 6.85X, 3.23X and 4.96X, respectively.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NotesStarbucks is making meaningful progress in its turnaround, supported by improving operations, stronger customer engagement, successful product innovation and growing momentum across international markets. These factors, along with improving earnings expectations and a reasonable valuation, support a Hold stance for existing investors. However, with the stock trading close to its 52-week high after a strong rally, much of the near-term optimism appears to be reflected in the share price.
In addition, macroeconomic uncertainty, lingering cost pressures and the need for continued flawless execution of the "Back to Starbucks" strategy could limit further upside. As a result, existing investors may consider holding the stock to benefit from the ongoing turnaround, while new investors may be better served waiting for a more attractive entry point.
Starbucks currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Shares of this coffee chain have returned +6.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.6% change. The Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Starbucks belongs, has gained 6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Starbucks is expected to post earnings of $0.65 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +30%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.4 points to a change of +12.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.07 indicates a change of +27.8% from what Starbucks is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Starbucks is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Starbucks, the consensus sales estimate of $9.43 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -0.3%. The $38.27 billion and $40.09 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +2.9% and +4.8%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryStarbucks reported revenues of $9.53 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.8%. EPS of $0.5 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.17 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +3.92%. The EPS surprise was +13.64%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Starbucks is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Starbucks. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
In the latest trading session, Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) closed at $102.11, marking a -2.07% move from the previous day. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.72%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.3%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 1.12%.
Shares of the coffee chain have appreciated by 9.42% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 0.64%, and the S&P 500's loss of 0.9%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Starbucks in its upcoming release. In that report, analysts expect Starbucks to post earnings of $0.65 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 30%. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $9.43 billion, indicating a 0.26% downward movement from the same quarter last year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $2.4 per share and revenue of $38.27 billion, indicating changes of +12.68% and +2.91%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Starbucks. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant. Starbucks currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
With respect to valuation, Starbucks is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 43.47. This indicates a premium in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 20.74.
It's also important to note that SBUX currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.07. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. The average PEG ratio for the Retail - Restaurants industry stood at 2.03 at the close of the market yesterday.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 198, putting it in the bottom 20% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
Starbucks stock is under selling pressure. Why is SBUX stock retreating? Critical Price Levels To Watch for SBUXFrom a longer-term trend view, the stock is still holding above its 200-day SMA ($92.83) and 100-day SMA ($99.09), but it’s slipping back under the 50-day SMA ($102.05) and sitting near the 20-day SMA ($101.15), which often signals a choppier, range-bound phase rather than a clean uptrend. The 20-day SMA being below the 50-day SMA is a bearish crossover that can keep rallies capped until price can reclaim those shorter averages.
RSI is the cleaner momentum read right now: at 49.04, it’s neutral, meaning the tape isn’t stretched enough to imply a forced snapback either way. In plain terms, RSI helps gauge whether recent buying or selling has become "too far, too fast," and this reading points to consolidation risk rather than an extreme.
Key Resistance: $103.50 — a nearby ceiling that lines up with the area above the 50-day SMA where rebounds can stall Key Support: $93.50 — a nearby floor closer to the 200-day trend zone where buyers have previously shown up What Makes Starbucks the Leading Coffee Brand?Starbucks stands out as the world’s biggest and most recognizable coffee brand, powered by ultracustomizable beverages in-store and a sweeping footprint of nearly 41,000 cafes in over 80 countries. About 52% are company-operated, with the balance run by licensees.
The company earns across its North America (74% of revenue as of the end of fiscal 2025), international (21%), and channel development (5%) segments, including royalties, product/equipment sales, ready-to-drink, and packaged coffee. That scale is why a localized controversy like the Starbucks Korea episode can still matter to the stock—investors tend to treat brand trust and risk controls as part of the long-term moat.
Starbucks Earnings Preview for July 2026Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 28, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: 65 cents (Up from 50 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $9.16 Billion (Down from $9.46 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 79.6x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $106.62. Recent analyst moves include:
TD Cowen: Upgraded to Buy (Raises Target to $120.00) (May 14) Stifel: Buy (Raises Target to $117.00) (May 6) UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $105.00) (April 29) Starbucks Benzinga Edge Rankings ExplainedBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Starbucks, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
The Verdict: Starbucks’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-leaning setup with weak value and growth scores, which can make the stock more sensitive to negative headlines. For longer-term bulls, the cleaner technical tell is whether price can reclaim the $103.50 area; otherwise, traders may keep focusing on downside levels like $93.50.
SBUX Stock Price Activity on MondaySBUX Stock Price Activity: Starbucks shares were down 2.94% at $101.20 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Key Takeaways Starbucks Rewards reached a record 35.6 million active members as customer visits increased.SBUX posted 6.2% global comparable sales growth, driven by higher transactions and faster service.Loyalty enhancements, menu innovation and raised 2026 guidance support Starbucks' growth outlook. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) appears to be regaining momentum, with its revamped Starbucks Rewards program emerging as a key driver of higher customer engagement and store traffic. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the coffee giant reported its first year-over-year growth in both revenues and earnings in more than two years, signaling that the "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy is gaining traction.
The company's redesigned loyalty program helped lift 90-day active Starbucks Rewards membership to a record 35.6 million, up 4% year over year. More importantly, management highlighted that both Rewards members and non-members increased their visits during the quarter. The newly introduced 60-star redemption option quickly became the most popular reward, accounting for roughly one-third of all redemptions, while early data showed more customers visiting Starbucks four or more times each week.
The loyalty strategy is working alongside operational improvements. Starbucks posted 6.2% global comparable sales growth, including 7.1% comparable sales growth in the United States, driven by transaction growth of more than 4%. Faster service through its Green Apron Service model, expanded delivery, menu innovation and improved in-store experiences have complemented the Rewards program by encouraging repeat visits.
Management noted that the revamped Rewards platform is designed to emphasize personalization and customer recognition rather than heavy discounting. Instead of disrupting customer behavior, the changes produced higher membership and engagement, even during a period when Rewards participation typically declines seasonally.
Starbucks raised its fiscal 2026 guidance, now expecting global comparable sales growth of at least 5% and earnings per share between $2.25 and $2.45. While inflation, coffee costs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty remain as risks, the company's strengthening loyalty ecosystem and improving customer experience position it to sustain higher store traffic and support long-term growth.
Can Rivals Match Starbucks' Loyalty-Driven Traffic Growth?Starbucks' renewed focus on loyalty and customer engagement is intensifying competition with Dutch Bros (BROS - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International's (QSR - Free Report) Tim Hortons. Dutch Bros continues to expand rapidly through new store openings and its Dutch Rewards program, which encourages repeat visits with personalized offers and app-based ordering. Its younger customer base and strong beverage innovation have helped drive transaction growth, making Dutch Bros a formidable challenger in the specialty coffee market.
Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands International's Tim Hortons is leveraging its extensive footprint and Tims Rewards loyalty platform to increase customer frequency across Canada and select international markets. The brand continues to invest in digital ordering, personalized promotions and value offerings to strengthen customer retention.
While both competitors are enhancing their loyalty ecosystems, Starbucks currently holds an advantage with its record 35.6 million active Rewards members, stronger personalization features and improved in-store experience. Continued execution of its loyalty strategy and operational improvements could help Starbucks maintain higher customer traffic despite intensifying competition.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 11.4% in the past year against the industry’s 5.1% decline.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.00, below the industry’s average of 3.41.
SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 12.7%. EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 60 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX’s Zacks RankSBUX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Gen-Z consumers frequently hear the well-meaning, but perhaps oversimplified advice to quit paying $8 dollars for their morning coffee. But human nature has a way of adapting. It is such that these consumers now have a comeback. They’re not just drinking coffee. They’re having a functional drink to promote wellness.
The functional drink market includes protein coffee, CBD-infused sodas, and, of course, prebiotic drinks. But this market is doing more than creating more beverage choices for consumers. According to Mordor Intelligence, the functional beverage market is already a $160 billion market. But between 2026 and 2031, that market is expected to balloon to over $235 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.93% in that time.
Movements like functional beverages frequently start out in private companies. But it hasn’t taken long for large, publicly traded companies to get in on the action. That gives investors a way to boost their portfolio even if the idea of a functional beverage is a strong, black coffee.
Get BellRing Brands alerts:
An Inverse GLP-1 TradeInvestors have poured money into technology stocks, particularly those focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and space. But it’s been impossible to ignore the outperformance of stocks in the rapidly growing GLP-1 space. This provides a tangible way to address the obesity epidemic in America.
Functional drinks aren’t about addressing obesity. Rather, it’s about strengthening a strength. Many consumers in this space already prioritize fitness. Their daily beverage choice is a way of making their beverages work harder so they can achieve their fitness goals.
For investors, this provides a catalyst for several stocks outside of the biopharma sector, which gives investors exposure to risks outside of the GLP-1 space. At their core, the companies listed here are well-known with strong balance sheets. That means investors get the benefits of investing in functional drinks with less risk.
BellRing Brands Turns Protein Shakes Into Market ShareBellRing Brands Today
$13.00 -0.86 (-6.20%)
As of 10:09 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$7.82▼
$59.10P/E Ratio10.07
Price Target$22.47
BellRing Brands NYSE: BRBR is the purest protein beverage play on this list. The company owns Premier Protein and Dymatize, two brands that dominate the ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shake aisle. That positioning matters because protein has become the entry point for consumers who want functional benefits without giving up convenience.
BellRing spun off from Post Holdings, and that independence has let management focus entirely on capacity expansion and shelf-space growth. Premier Protein has consistently taken market share from legacy players, helped by distribution wins at retailers like Costco and Walmart, the parent company of Sam’s Club. That hasn’t shown up in BRBR, which is down nearly 50% in 2026. That shows the stock isn't immune to volatility tied to protein input costs like whey. As the company noted in its Q1 2026 earnings report, that may be a headwind for the remainder of the year.
For investors seeking direct exposure to the functional beverage boom, BellRing offers a business built entirely around the trend rather than adjacent to it. That focus is a strength, but it also means BellRing's fortunes rise and fall with a single category.
Starbucks Leans Into Protein Coffee and Wellness DrinksStarbucks Today
$101.56 -2.71 (-2.60%)
As of 10:09 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$77.99▼
$108.88Dividend Yield2.44%
P/E Ratio76.98
Price Target$108.92
Starbucks NASDAQ: SBUX isn't a pure-play functional beverage stock, but its scale gives it an outsized influence over how mainstream consumers discover the category. The company has rolled out protein-fortified cold foam, energy-boosting refreshers, and menu items aimed squarely at fitness-minded customers who might otherwise skip a coffee shop altogether.
That strategy fits into Starbucks' broader turnaround story. Functional add-ons are cheap for Starbucks to test and roll out, but they carry real upside if they drive incremental visits or larger basket sizes. SBUX is up more than 20% in 2026, which at least suggests consumers are being exposed to the new offerings.
The risk for investors is that Starbucks' functional drink push is still a small piece of a much larger, more complicated turnaround. Starbucks offers functional beverage exposure, but it comes bundled with a broader operational bet.
Celsius Holdings Rides the Fitness-First Energy WaveCelsius Today
$33.18 +0.02 (+0.07%)
As of 10:09 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$27.47▼
$66.74P/E Ratio77.06
Price Target$60.90
Celsius Holdings NASDAQ: CELH built its brand entirely around the idea that energy drinks can double as fitness supplements. The company markets its products as thermogenic and free of the sugar and empty calories associated with legacy energy drink brands, a pitch that has resonated strongly with younger, health-conscious consumers.
PepsiCo has made an investment and distribution partnership that gives Celsius a major growth lever. Specifically, it puts the brand into retail shelf space that would have taken years to win independently. That relationship has been central to the bull case, though it also means Celsius's growth trajectory is tied to how aggressively Pepsi continues to push the brand.
Celsius trades with more volatility than BellRing or Starbucks, reflecting both its smaller size and its history of sharp swings tied to retail sell-through data and competitive pressure from rivals like Red Bull's own functional lineup. CELH is down nearly 28% in 2026, but trades close to 90% below the consensus price target of $60.90. For investors comfortable with that volatility, Celsius offers the most direct bet on functional energy drinks specifically, rather than the broader functional beverage category.
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Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) just delivered two of the most instructive turnaround updates in restaurants.
Starbucks posted its clearest inflection yet under Brian Niccol. Chipotle, still working through a full year of negative comps, leaned harder on unit growth and menu innovation. Same sector, two very different scoreboards.
Coffee Traffic Comes Back. Burrito Traffic Still Hasn’t. Starbucks’ Q2 FY2026 report showed global comparable store sales up 6.2%, with transactions up 3.8% and ticket up 2.3%. North America comps ran 7.1%, driven by real foot traffic rather than pricing. Revenue landed at $9.53 billion, up 8.79% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 beat the $0.44 estimate.
Niccol called it plainly: “Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth.”
Chipotle’s Q4 2025 print told a rougher story. Comparable restaurant sales fell 2.5% on a 3.2% transaction decline, and restaurant-level operating margin compressed to 23.4% from 24.8%. EPS of $0.25 squeaked past the $0.24 consensus, but 2025 was Chipotle’s first full year of negative comp sales.
CEO Scott Boatwright framed it as resilience, pointing to “the early success of our high-protein menu and benefits from our high-efficiency equipment package.”
Back to Starbucks vs. Recipe for Growth The strategic playbooks diverge more than the branding suggests. Starbucks is defending traffic with a reimagined three-tier Rewards program (Green, Gold, Reserve), a restructured China joint venture where Boyu Capital holds 60%, and plans for 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses in FY26.
Chipotle is buying growth with concrete: 334 openings in 2025 and 350 to 370 planned for 2026, roughly 80% with a Chipotlane.
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Lens Starbucks Chipotle Comp trend +6.2% global -2.5% Traffic +3.8% transactions -3.2% transactions Growth engine Rewards, China JV, ticket mix New units, high-protein menu, AI Capital return $0.62 quarterly dividend $2.43B buybacks in 2025 FY26 comp guide ≥5% Approximately flat Valuations reflect the mood. Starbucks trades at a P/E of 79, priced like the turnaround is confirmed. Chipotle sits at 32, with a forward multiple of 30, cheaper but attached to shrinking traffic. Consumer spending on Food Services keeps rising, hitting $1,538.3 billion in May 2026, so this is not a macro problem. It is a share problem.
The Next Test Is Whether Chipotle Can Fix Traffic Watch three things. First, whether Starbucks holds North America transaction momentum against a 170 bps margin contraction from labor investments, tariffs, and coffee pricing.
Second, whether Chipotle’s high-protein menu and equipment rollout can flip transactions positive after four straight negative quarters.
Third, capital allocation. Starbucks is protecting its 64th consecutive quarter of dividends despite negative shareholders’ equity of $8.5 billion. Chipotle is buying back stock aggressively, with $1.7 billion remaining on the authorization.
Why I Lean Toward Starbucks Today, But Keep Chipotle on the Bench I lean Starbucks right now. The data actually supports the story Niccol is telling, and shares are up 25.36% year to date at $104.27. That said, a 79 P/E leaves little room for a stumble, and insiders have been net sellers.
Chipotle looks more interesting for turnaround investors comfortable with volatility. The stock is down 37.66% over the past year to $35.39, yet analysts still carry a $42.88 target and 26 buy or strong-buy ratings. If Boatwright gets transactions positive by mid-2026, that gap closes fast. Until then, I want to see one clean quarter of positive traffic before I would step in.
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SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.62 per share of outstanding Common Stock. The dividend will be payable in cash on August 28, 2026, to shareholders of record on August 14, 2026. About Starbucks Since 1971, Starbucks Coffee Company has been committed to responsibly sourcing and roasting high-quality arabica coffee. Today, with a global footprint of more than 41,000 company-opera.
Key Takeaways SBUX's North America operating margin fell about 170 bps YoY to 10.2% in Q2 FY26.Product, distribution and legal accrual pressures weighed on SBUX's North America margins in Q2.SBUX expects stronger sales leverage and easing coffee and tariff pressure in 2H FY26. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is entering the back half of fiscal 2026 with improving sales momentum, but North America margin pressure remains an important test for the turnaround. In the fiscal second quarter, consolidated operating margin expanded 110 basis points year over year to 9.4%, marking Starbucks’ fiscal first quarter of consolidated margin expansion since the first quarter of fiscal 2024. However, margin performance in North America remained under pressure, with segment operating margin contracting approximately 170 basis points year over year to 10.2%.
The margin contraction reflected several cost and accrual-related pressures. Starbucks’ North America margins were affected by roughly 190 basis points of product and distribution cost increases as a percentage of revenues, as well as greater-than-anticipated legal accruals. About half of the product and distribution increase was tied to innovation-led product mix, while the remaining pressure was largely related to tariffs and elevated coffee prices.
The second-half setup is more balanced. Starbucks expects coffee and tariff pressures to begin easing in the back half of fiscal 2026, helped by recent trends in coffee prices. The benefit may not appear immediately because Starbucks’ coffee costs typically lag market movements due to purchasing and hedging practices. Still, a moderation in these pressures could help reduce one of the more visible drags on North America’s profitability.
For the back half of fiscal 2026, the margin recovery case depends on Starbucks converting stronger U.S. traffic into better profit flow-through. The company expects stronger sales leverage over the next two quarters, supported by continued progress on cost-savings initiatives. If those benefits materialize alongside easing coffee and tariff pressure, Starbucks could have a clearer path to offsetting North America margin headwinds.
How Starbucks’ Margin Setup Compares With PeersDutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) is navigating a similar input-cost backdrop, with higher coffee costs and food rollout expenses driving a 120-basis-point increase in beverage, food and packaging costs as a percentage of company-operated shop revenues in the first quarter of 2026. The impact was partly mitigated by operating leverage, as labor costs improved 120 basis points and adjusted SG&A improved 100 basis points as a percentage of revenues. For 2026, BROS expects adjusted EBITDA margin pressure from higher coffee and occupancy costs, partially offset by SG&A leverage.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) provides a scale-driven comparison. The company reported an adjusted operating margin of 46% and more than $3.6 billion in restaurant margins in the first quarter, although U.S. company-operated margins remained under pressure. To manage cost volatility, MCD is relying on supply-chain scale, supplier partnerships and hedging strategies while also reviewing the optimal mix of company-operated and franchised restaurants.
Against this backdrop, Starbucks’ margin challenge is more closely tied to North America turnaround investments and input-cost pressure. BROS is relying on labor efficiency and SG&A leverage to cushion coffee and occupancy headwinds, while MCD benefits from scale, franchising and supply-chain discipline. For Starbucks, Green Apron Service investments, innovation-related costs and operating discipline remain important variables in determining whether Back to Starbucks can translate into stronger operating leverage.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 8.5% in the past year against the industry’s 8.2% decline.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.93, below the industry’s average of 3.32.
SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 12.7%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 60 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX’s Zacks RankSBUX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $102.19, moving -1.8% from the previous trading session. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.79%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.26%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 1.52%.
Shares of the coffee chain have appreciated by 7.82% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 5.08%, and the S&P 500's loss of 1.82%.
The upcoming earnings release of Starbucks will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.65, reflecting a 30% increase from the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $9.43 billion, down 0.26% from the year-ago period.
SBUX's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $2.4 per share and revenue of $38.27 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +12.68% and +2.91%, respectively.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Starbucks. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.82% decrease. Right now, Starbucks possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Starbucks is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 43.38. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 20.23.
One should further note that SBUX currently holds a PEG ratio of 2.07. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. As of the close of trade yesterday, the Retail - Restaurants industry held an average PEG ratio of 1.98.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 200, putting it in the bottom 19% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SBUX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this coffee chain have returned -0.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, which Starbucks falls in, has lost 1.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Starbucks is expected to post earnings of $0.65 per share, indicating a change of +30% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.4 points to a change of +12.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.7%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.07 indicates a change of +27.8% from what Starbucks is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.5%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Starbucks.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Starbucks, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $9.47 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +0.1%. For the current and next fiscal years, $38.27 billion and $40.19 billion estimates indicate +2.9% and +5% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryStarbucks reported revenues of $9.53 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.8%. EPS of $0.5 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.17 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +3.92%. The EPS surprise was +13.64%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Starbucks is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Starbucks. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways SBUX said delivery has grown more than 30% YTD across its U.S. company-operated business.SBUX reported 7.1% U.S. comparable sales growth in Q2 FY26, driven by transaction growth of more than 4%.SBUX is expanding delivery alongside cafes, drive-thrus and mobile pickup to broaden customer access. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is seeing delivery become a more visible comp-growth lever as the company broadens customer access across its U.S. store base. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, delivery contributed to both comp ticket and transaction growth, underscoring its role as a measurable access-point gain within the Back to Starbucks recovery.
The momentum follows Starbucks’ expansion of delivery access across its U.S. company-operated portfolio last fiscal year. The company stated that delivery has proven to be a largely incremental revenue stream, growing more than 30% year to date (YTD) across its U.S. company-operated business. The delivery growth strengthens Starbucks’ access-point strategy, adding an incremental demand channel alongside cafés, drive-thrus and mobile pickup.
The broader U.S. comp recovery provides a stronger base for delivery to scale. In the fiscal second quarter, U.S. comparable sales rose 7.1%, led by transaction growth of more than 4%. Starbucks also reported transaction growth across all dayparts in its U.S. company-operated business, with mornings roughly back to fiscal 2022 levels. This improving traffic backdrop gives the company a stronger foundation to expand delivery as part of its broader access-point strategy.
The opportunity is tied to execution. As Starbucks improves staffing, scheduling and order sequencing, it is trying to support higher volumes across cafés, drive-thrus, mobile order pickup and delivery while keeping service times on target. Customer service times remained on target despite higher transaction volumes, while upcoming scheduled ordering is expected to bring more predictability to mobile order flow.
Delivery’s role in Starbucks’ U.S. growth story will likely depend on whether it can keep the channel incremental while preserving service execution. If the company sustains delivery momentum while maintaining operating discipline, the channel could become a more durable U.S. comp lever within the broader Back to Starbucks strategy.
How Starbucks Stacks Up to CompetitorsDutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) provides a relevant benchmark because it is also expanding beverage occasions through digital access, rewards engagement and menu innovation. Order ahead reached approximately 15% of the total transaction mix in the first quarter of 2026, while Dutch Rewards accounted for 74% of transactions. BROS is also using food attachment and energy innovation, including Myst Energy Refreshers, to support frequency and transaction growth.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) offers a broader scale comparison, as it is using value, marketing and beverage innovation to drive traffic across dayparts. In the first quarter, U.S. comparable sales rose 3.9%, supported by value platforms, meal deals and menu activity. MCD also expanded its McCafe beverage platform with refreshers and crafted sodas, with additional flavors and Red Bull-infused energy drinks planned during the year.
Against this backdrop, Starbucks’ positioning depends on whether delivery can remain incremental while service execution holds. BROS is leaning on order ahead, rewards, food and customized energy to build frequency, while MCD is using value, scale and beverage innovation to reinforce traffic. Starbucks’ differentiation lies in using delivery as a measurable access-point lever, with the channel already contributing to ticket and transaction growth and growing more than 30% year to date across U.S. company-operated stores.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 10.4% in the past year against the industry’s 8.9% decline.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.90, below the industry’s average of 3.24.
SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 12.7%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 60 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX’s Zacks RankSBUX stock currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the latest close session, Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) was down 1.83% at $99.82. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 1.22%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.98%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 1.35%.
The coffee chain's shares have seen a decrease of 4.42% over the last month, not keeping up with the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 2.86% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.56%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Starbucks in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.65, showcasing a 30% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $9.47 billion, up 0.13% from the year-ago period.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $2.4 per share and revenue of $38.27 billion. These totals would mark changes of +12.68% and +2.91%, respectively, from last year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Starbucks. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.15% higher within the past month. At present, Starbucks boasts a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).
Looking at valuation, Starbucks is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 42.39. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 19.48.
Investors should also note that SBUX has a PEG ratio of 2.02 right now. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. As the market closed yesterday, the Retail - Restaurants industry was having an average PEG ratio of 1.84.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 205, which puts it in the bottom 16% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
Starbucks (SBUX +1.80%) may be on the verge of a major expansion, one that investors should note.
The global coffee giant currently operates more than 40,000 stores in 88 markets on six different continents (it has yet to establish an outpost in Antarctica).
More than 22,000 of those stores are outside the U.S. and Canada, a number that could increase substantially in the coming years, according to the company's CEO.
At the Evercore Consumer and Retail Conference in New York this week, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol said the company can grow aggressively outside the U.S., claiming it could double its store count in other countries. He said that in China alone, the company will go from 8,000 stores today to 20,000 stores "in short order."
Niccol also said Starbucks is looking to open an additional 10,000 stores in the U.S., particularly in underpenetrated areas in the middle of the country, as today the company has a coastal bias.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company began as a single store in Seattle in 1971, selling whole bean coffee, tea, and spices.
The turnaround seems to be working Starbucks' share price is up 20% so far in 2026, after several difficult years when it moved sideways to slightly down, due to flagging sales and a loss of customers who were tired of the coffee chain's long waits and inconsistent product quality, among other problems.
Niccol, a former CEO at Chipotle, was hired in 2024 to turn the business around, and he seems to be having some success this year.
Among other changes in his "Back to Starbucks" strategy, Niccol cut almost 2,000 corporate workers from its payroll and closed hundreds of underperforming locations. He also had the company invest in stores to increase the timeliness and quality of orders.
In the second quarter (ended March 29), the company increased revenue 9% year over year to $9.5 billion and boosted earnings 14.5% to $0.50 a share. Both figures beat Wall Street's expectations, sending the stock higher. The quarter was the second consecutive period that the company saw traffic growth at its locations. Management also increased full-year guidance for 2026.
The stock is up about 5% since the second quarter results were announced.
Today's Change
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Niccol's turnaround is just a few quarters old, of course, but it looks like the strategy is gaining traction, and the market recognizes it. If his plan to double the international store count comes to fruition, investors might be very happy they invested $1,000 in the stock today.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) and McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) both delivered upbeat quarters this spring, but the stories underneath could not be more different.
Starbucks is mid-turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol, while McDonald’s is a steady franchised cash machine led by Chris Kempczinski. If you are deciding where to park $10,000, the choice comes down to turnaround upside versus durable scale.
The Turnaround Caffeinates. The Arches Just Execute. Starbucks’ Q2 FY2026 was the clearest sign yet that the “Back to Starbucks” plan is working. Global comps rose 6.2%, with North America jumping 7.1% on 4.4% transaction growth. Real customers are walking back through the doors.
Adjusted EPS of $0.50 beat the $0.44 estimate, and revenue hit $9.53 billion. Niccol called it “the turn in our turnaround.” The catch: North America operating margin contracted 170 basis points on labor investments, tariffs, and coffee inflation. China comps barely moved at 0.5%, prompting the Boyu Capital JV that hands operating control to a local partner.
McDonald’s Q1 FY2026 was less dramatic and arguably more reassuring. Revenue grew 9.44% to $6.52 billion, EPS of $2.83 beat estimates, and global comps rebounded to +3.8% after a negative reading a year earlier.
International Operated Markets revenue jumped 14%, helped by the UK, Germany, and Australia. Loyalty is the quiet weapon: systemwide sales to members topped $9 billion in the quarter and $38 billion on a trailing basis.
Franchised Cash Flow vs. Company-Owned Risk Lens SBUX MCD Core bet Coffeehouse experience reset Value, marketing, menu innovation Operating margin (TTM) 8.4% 44.3% Forward P/E 35x 22x Dividend yield 2.41% 2.55% Key vulnerability Coffee and labor inflation Inflation on company-owned stores McDonald’s runs a roughly 95% franchised model, which is why franchised restaurants generated $4.01 billion of the quarter’s revenue with much higher pass-through economics.
Starbucks remains heavily company-operated, meaning every wage hike and bean cost lands directly on its P&L. That structural difference shows up in margin and in valuation.
The Next Test Is Pricing Power and Loyalty I will be watching whether Starbucks can hold the 5% or greater comp guidance into fiscal H2 as the China JV reshapes reported revenue. For McDonald’s, the question is whether loyalty across 70 markets can keep lifting check size while value menus protect traffic.
Shares since earnings tell a story: SBUX is up 6.54% since April 28, while MCD has nudged just 1.07% higher since May 7. Year to date, SBUX has run 23.88%, MCD is down 5.66%. Reddit retail sentiment on MCD has skewed bearish in early June, which is worth noting but not investing on.
Weighing the $10,000 Question On the numbers, McDonald’s looks like the more defensive position. The combination of a 22x forward multiple, mid-to-high 40% operating margin guide, and $1.86 quarterly dividend supports durable compounding while the stock sits below its 200-day average.
Starbucks offers more turnaround optionality, though the 35x forward P/E and 29.8% tax rate leave little room for slippage. If coffee inflation worsens or U.S. comps stall, the Starbucks thesis is the first to reassess.
The June 22 closure will support mandatory history and social sensitivity training after the Tank Day backlash. Summary
Starbucks Korea is overhauling approvals after a promotion triggered boycott pressure.
Starbucks SBUX Korea is taking a rare operational step after a failed “Tank Day” promotion triggered a customer boycott tied to South Korea's highly sensitive 1980 Gwangju massacre. The company will close all Starbucks Korea stores early at 3:00 p.m. local time on June 22 for mandatory training on history and social sensitivity across its entire workforce. Shinsegae Group said Chairman Chung Yong-jin, along with executives and managers, will also receive separate training, signaling that the company is treating the incident as a broader corporate governance and brand-risk issue.
The controversy began after Starbucks Korea offered discounts on its Tank tumbler series, a campaign that drew backlash for referencing the Gwangju massacre, when South Korea's then-military junta used tanks to suppress a protest in the city, killing hundreds of people. The response has already moved beyond customer criticism, with politicians and President Lee Jae Myung also weighing in. Chung issued a public apology, Starbucks Korea's chief executive officer was dismissed, and top executives reported substantial revenue declines, suggesting the reputational damage could carry near-term financial pressure.
For investors, the incident could become an important test of brand durability in Starbucks' largest market outside the US and China. The June 22 closure will mark the first time since Starbucks entered South Korea in 1999 that all stores have shut early for a corporate mandate. Shinsegae's E-Mart owns 67.5% of Starbucks Korea, while the remaining stake is held by Singapore's sovereign wealth fund. Starbucks Korea is now moving to overhaul its approval process with a social sensitivity checklist developed with external experts, along with cross-department reviews from legal and quality control teams, in an effort to reduce the chance of another marketing mistake.
A botched marketing campaign by Starbucks’s South Korean operation has resulted in boycotts, an investigation, a fired executive, and a public apology. To address the fallout, all 2,000-plus locations nationwide will close early on June 22 for mandatory history and social sensitivity training.
Present in South Korea since 1999, the coffee chain will mark its first nationwide early closure in the country’s history. After the U.S. and China, South Korea is the third-largest market for Seattle-based Starbucks.
Shinsegae Group, which owns the majority stake in the coffee chain’s South Korean operations, is still doing damage control four weeks after launching a promotion for stainless-steel tumblers on May 18 in honor of what it referred to as “Tank Day.” That promotion was quickly met with widespread criticism and backlash, as it came on the 46th anniversary of the Gwangju Uprising, a pro-democracy movement that turned violent and deadly after the military deployed troops, tanks, and helicopters to suppress the rebellion.
Only hours after that promotion launched, Shinsegae fired the chain’s chief executive, Sohn Jeong-hyun, and vowed to investigate the circumstances that led to it happening in the first place. All visitors to the Starbucks Korea website are now greeted with an apology message from Shinsegae chairman Chung Yong-jin that was written that same day.
“We deeply feel a heavy sense of responsibility regarding this incident and the gravity of the matter, and we will take all possible measures to prevent such an incident from recurring,” the apology message on the website reads, in part, according to a Google translation.
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TRAINING, OTHER CHANGES COMINGNext week’s training session at its Seoul headquarters, which will be led by history and sociology professors, is the chain’s latest effort to reassure customers who are still outraged over the promotion. Locations are closing early so that employees can also view a recording of the session.
“It demonstrates how seriously we take this marketing incident, and it reflects our commitment to ensuring it never happens again,” Shinsegae said in a statement, according to Bloomberg News.
What’s more, Starbucks Korea will overhaul its internal decision-making process going forward to include a “social sensitivity checklist” and a tighter approval chain to ensure there’s cross-departmental sign-offs from legal and quality control teams.
Key Takeaways SBUX reported 6% global comparable sales growth, with transaction growth topping 4%.SBUX credits Green Apron Service for better staffing, faster service and higher customer scores.SBUX saw traffic growth across all dayparts and income groups, with morning visits rebounding. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is showing signs that its turnaround strategy is gaining traction, with improved customer service emerging as a key driver of renewed traffic growth. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the coffee giant reported global comparable sales growth of 6%, including more than 7% growth in North America. Notably, transaction growth exceeded 4%, marking the strongest customer traffic performance the company has seen in roughly three years.
At the center of this recovery is Starbucks' "Green Apron Service" initiative, which focuses on better staffing, scheduling, leadership stability and faster service. Management noted that customer experience scores continued to improve during the quarter, while service times remained on target despite higher transaction volumes. The company has also introduced new operational tools, such as the Grow scorecard, to help stores maintain consistent service standards and identify areas for improvement.
The improvements appear to be resonating with consumers. Starbucks reported transaction growth across all dayparts and income groups, suggesting that customers are responding positively to a more reliable and engaging in-store experience. Management highlighted that morning traffic has nearly returned to fiscal 2022 levels, while brand affinity, purchase intent and customer perception of value have all strengthened.
While menu innovation and rewards program enhancements have also contributed to growth, Starbucks' leadership believes superior service is the foundation of its recovery. If the company continues to execute on the customer experience initiatives, it may be well positioned to sustain traffic gains and strengthen long-term growth prospects.
How Do Competitors Compare on Customer Experience?Starbucks' renewed focus on service quality puts it in direct competition with other coffee and beverage chains that are also investing heavily in customer experience. Among its key rivals are Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International's (QSR - Free Report) Tim Hortons.
Dutch Bros has built its brand around fast service and energetic customer interactions. The company emphasizes friendly employee engagement and efficient drive-thru operations, helping it attract younger consumers and generate strong customer loyalty. As Dutch Bros expands nationally, its people-centric service model presents a meaningful challenge to Starbucks, particularly in drive-thru-focused markets.
Meanwhile, Tim Hortons, a dominant coffee chain in Canada with a growing international presence, continues to invest in digital ordering, loyalty programs and operational improvements. Restaurant Brands International's brand has focused on reducing wait times and enhancing convenience through mobile technology, similar to Starbucks' efforts to improve order accuracy and speed.
While both competitors are strengthening their customer experience initiatives, Starbucks' combination of premium coffee offerings, personalized rewards, upgraded stores and Green Apron Service gives it a differentiated approach. The recent rebound in traffic suggests these investments are helping Starbucks regain its competitive edge.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Starbucks have gained 21.1% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 0.9% growth.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 35.82, above the industry’s average of 23.05.
SBUX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 12.7%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 60 days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX’s Zacks RankSBUX stock currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Here are three stocks with buy rank and strong income characteristics for investors to consider today, June 15:
Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW - Free Report) : This commercial vehicle equipment company witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 15.4% the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 2.5%, compared with the industry average of 0.0%.
Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR - Free Report) : This materials and industrial component company has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 7.1% the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 2.9%, compared with the industry average of 0.0%.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) : This coffee company has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 4.4% in the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 2.4%, compared with the industry average of 0.0%.
See the full list of top ranked stocks here.
Find more top income stocks with some of our great premium screens.
An empty Starbucks store in Seoul, South Korea, May 26, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
SummaryCompaniesStarbucks Korea to close all stores June 22 for staff training after marketing backlashControversy stemmed from 'Tank Day' promotion coinciding with Gwangju Uprising anniversaryStarbucks Korea remains market leader with over 2,000 storesSEOUL, June 15 (Reuters) - Starbucks Korea will shut all stores in the country at 3 p.m. on June 22 for staff training on historical awareness and social sensitivity, the operator Shinsegae Group (004170.KS), opens new tab said on Monday, following public backlash over a marketing campaign.
The coffee chain faced widespread criticism and suffered a "very significant" drop in sales after last month's campaign that evoked a brutal 1980 military crackdown on pro-democracy protesters.
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Shinsegae's affiliate E-Mart (139480.KS), opens new tab owns Starbucks Korea, which launched its 'Tank Day' tumbler promotion on the anniversary of the May 18 Gwangju Uprising, when the military government deployed troops and tanks to suppress pro-democracy demonstrations.
Starbucks Korea headquarters staff and executives from Shinsegae's E-Mart division will undergo the same training on June 17 at the group's in-house training centre, while Shinsegae Chairman Chung Yong-jin and affiliate CEOs will attend a separate session on June 24, the group said.
Shinsegae said the move reflected how seriously it viewed the recent marketing controversy and its commitment to preventing a recurrence. Chung previously apologised publicly over the controversy.
The history awareness lecture, led by a history professor from Sungkyunkwan University, will review the major events in South Korea's modern and contemporary history since the 1950s and discuss how they should be understood, it said.
A separate social sensitivity training, conducted by a sociology professor at the same university, will look at how companies should consider social issues such as history, labour, gender and human rights in marketing and other corporate activities, the company said.
The company said it would be the first nationwide early closure of Starbucks Korea stores since the chain opened in the country in 1999.
Starbucks Korea also plans to overhaul marketing approval procedures, including introducing a social-sensitivity checklist covering history, commemorative dates, politics, disasters, military issues, gender, violence and hate expressions, Shinsegae said.
Starbucks Korea had more than 2,000 stores in the country as of end-2024 according to its annual impact report. It is the country's No. 1 coffee chain in terms of customer payments, according to data firm WISEAPP.
Reporting by Joyce Lee, Jack Kim and Kyu-seok Shim Editing by Ed Davies
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
The smart money signal on Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) is unambiguously bullish, with institutions holding 86.8% of the float and Wall Street’s consensus price target 10.4% above where the stock currently trades. After Brian Niccol’s turnaround delivered its first clean earnings beat in four quarters, analyst coverage has tilted toward conviction, even as retail discussion on Reddit has skewed skeptical.
Hard operational data underpins the institutional thesis. The question for retail investors is whether the gap between current price and consensus target is wide enough to follow the smart money in, or whether the easy money in this recovery has already been made.
Three Data Points Anchoring the Wall Street View First, the analyst consensus, which leans to Hold with a blended target price of $106.25. Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $112 price target following the Q1 FY2026 results, an early validation of the recovery thesis, since reinforced by the most recent quarter. TD Cowen recently upgraded the shares to Buy and boosted the $106 target to $120.
Second, the operational beat behind that conviction. Q2 FY2026 produced adjusted EPS of $0.50 against a $0.44 consensus, a 13.64% beat, on revenue of $9.531 billion that grew 8.8% year over year. Global comparable store sales rose 6.2%, with North America comps up 7.1% on 4.4% transaction growth. CEO Brian Niccol said, “Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth.” Management raised FY2026 guidance to 5%+ comp growth and $2.25 to $2.45 in non-GAAP EPS.
Third is the capital-return signal. Starbucks paid its 64th consecutive quarterly dividend at $0.62 per share, compounding at a 17% CAGR. The 2.6% yield anchors the position for the dividend-growth mandates of the largest passive and quasi-passive holders—the BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street complexes that dominate most S&P 500 13F filings.
The Gap Between Expectations and the Price Shares closed June 1 at $96.51, down 8.9% over the past month and 4.8% over the past week, despite a 14.6% year-to-date gain. That leaves room to run to the $106.25 consensus and meaningful upside to the TD Cowen $120 target. The 50-day moving average of $99.38 is above the spot price, a technical wobble that has coincided with the May pullback.
Retail conviction has not kept pace. Reddit sentiment scores collected through early May ran 28 to 58, weighted toward neutral and bearish, with the most-engaged threads questioning pricing strategy and CEO credibility. One r/stocks post titled “SBUX is pricing like a luxury good when the unit economics say it doesn’t have to” drew sustained engagement across two weeks. Smart money is paying 25x EV/EBITDA and 39x forward earnings for the turnaround. Retail is asking whether the math works.
Competitive pressure is part of why retail is hesitant. Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS) grew Q1 revenue 30.8% to $464.4 million and has a $76.65 analyst target backed by 23 Buy-or-better ratings. Luckin Coffee operates 33,596 stores with revenue up 35.3% year over year, compressing Starbucks’ China comps to +0.5%.
The Takeaway The smart money has the better dataset here. Three consecutive quarters of accelerating comps, a guidance raise, and an analyst upgrade cycle support the institutional position, and the recent 8.9% monthly drawdown has compressed the entry rather than broken the thesis. The key caveat is an $8.5 billion negative shareholders’ equity and a forward multiple that prices in continued execution. For retail investors weighing whether to follow the institutions, the consensus target should be treated as a directional signal rather than a destination.
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) today announced that Brian Niccol, chairman and chief executive officer, will participate in a keynote fireside chat at the 6th Annual Evercore Consumer and Retail Conference on Tuesday, June 9th, 2026, at 11:40 a.m. Eastern Time.
The fireside chat will be webcast live from the company’s Investor Relations website at https://investor.starbucks.com on the Events & Presentations page.
About Starbucks
Since 1971, Starbucks Coffee Company has been committed to responsibly sourcing and roasting high-quality arabica coffee. Today, with a global footprint of more than 41,000 company-operated and licensed coffeehouses and a growing presence in consumer-packaged goods, we are the world's premier purveyor of specialty coffee. Through our unwavering commitment to excellence and our guiding principles, we bring the unique Starbucks Experience to life for every customer through every cup. To share in the experience, please visit us in our stores or online at about.starbucks.com or www.starbucks.com.
