Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

JP Morgan has run the numbers on a renewed bid for Rightmove PLC (LSE:RMV) by REA Group and concluded the deal would deliver little for the Australian buyer's shareholders.

The bank, in a note by analysts Marcus Diebel and Bob Chen, estimates a revived takeover would generate only around 4% earnings per share accretion, an outcome it does not consider attractive on a risk and reward basis.

REA, the Australian property portal majority owned by News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA), walked away from Rightmove at the end of 2024 after four approaches were rejected.

Its final proposal valued Rightmove at 775p a share plus a 6p special dividend.

That now looks compelling against a share price of around 430p, JP Morgan said, a gap causing some frustration among Rightmove shareholders.

The bank attributes the weakness, which began in September 2025, to two factors.

Rightmove's management has acknowledged years of underinvestment, driving elevated spending needs this year.

The wider online classifieds sector has also de-rated sharply, trading about 43% below its own two-year average on forward enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, at roughly 11.5 times against 20.0 times.

Investors are worried about disruption from artificial intelligence and further investment requirements across the sector.

JPM's leveraged buyout framework assumes News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA), which owns 62% of REA, would be unlikely to accept dilution below 50%, and that a fully debt-financed structure is not feasible.

On a 65% debt and 35% equity funding mix, a 45% premium in line with the three-year average, and around three times leverage against net cash today, the accretion maths still falls short.

The bank sees limited appetite from private equity at this stage.

In a recent sector study, JP Morgan argued that near-term catalysts for a re-rating at Rightmove are limited and that earnings risk is skewed to the downside, with potential pressure on margins.