Rocket Lab (RKLB +2.69%) just pushed the first launch of its Neutron rocket to 2027, and the stock has dropped more than 20%. But the company has grown beyond rocket launches to become a broader space technology company.
Could Redwire (RDW +2.70%) follow a similar path? With its space infrastructure business expanding and defense technology gaining traction, Redwire is benefiting from several growth drivers. The big question now is whether it has what it takes to become the next Rocket Lab.
Image source: Getty Images.
Redwire is becoming a major space infrastructure company Redwire supplies the technology that enables space missions, including solar arrays, spacecraft components, and microgravity research systems. It also expanded into surveillance and autonomous defense.
Notably, Redwire's core space business plays a key role in the industry's next phase. For example, its Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) technology provides deployable solar power for spacecraft and orbital infrastructure. In fact, the company announced that the final pair of its ROSA wings launched to the International Space Station, helping it complete a major power modernization effort.
That gives Redwire exposure to several long-term trends at once: the commercial space market, government space programs, and rising defense spending. But the bigger opportunity now is that Redwire could evolve from a specialized supplier into a broader aerospace and defense technology business, opening more avenues for growth.
RDW Redwire$8.36+$0.22 (+2.70%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26
Defense adds another growth engine to Redwire's business Redwire's acquisition of Edge Autonomy helped transform it into a more diversified defense company. The deal brought uncrewed aerial systems into its portfolio, including the Stalker and Penguin platforms. These systems are designed to support intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, areas where the military is strengthening its autonomous capabilities.
Redwire also announced additional orders for the Stalker drone for the U.S. National Guard. On top of that, it was selected for the Space Systems Command's $980 million NITE-STAR contract, creating opportunities to compete for future work.
Meanwhile, the company's growing backlog is proof that it can already win contracts and offer better revenue visibility. In its second-quarter results, the company reported record revenue and a record contracted backlog, indicating more signed work is awaiting delivery.
Revenue rose around 90% year over year to $117.1 million, while contracted backlog reached $542.1 million. Management reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million.
Redwire's solid Q2 results were driven by its expanding defense business, supported by demand for Stalker and Penguin drones and higher production volumes. New military contracts and follow-on awards helped push bookings above revenue; in fact, defense was the key driver of growth. That raises a fair question: How much of that growth is already priced into the stock?
Is Redwire stock a buy at its current valuation? Wall Street remains bullish on Redwire, with a consensus of 11 analysts rating it a Moderate Buy. Their price targets, meanwhile, suggest potential upside of up to 851% over the next year.
But with the stock trading at over 6.3 times sales, buyers are paying a premium for the company's growth potential. Plus, its expanding defense business and record backlog help justify that optimism. By comparison, Rocket Lab trades at about 50 times sales.
Still, Redwire must deal with execution risk. Space programs can face delays, cost overruns, and contract changes. Competition from more established contractors and other space companies could also put pressure on margins. That's why Redwire's diversification makes its investment case more resilient. If one part of the space market slows down, other areas may provide another source of demand.
Rocket Lab faces its own execution risk, too. The company hasn't given a specific launch date for Neutron, and a longer delay could keep pressure on the stock.
Ultimately, becoming the next Rocket Lab will require more than just winning new contracts. The real test is whether Redwire can turn its growth into sustainable profits and cash flow. For investors willing to take on that risk, Redwire is a space stock certainly worth watching.
Iridium Communications (IRDM +1.39%) announced its Q3 2026 earnings Tuesday morning, Oct. 20. Shares of the satellite communications company are basically flat since -- they cost $44.18 Monday evening before earnings, and they cost $44.25 at Wednesday's close. Rocket Lab (RKLB +2.69%) stock, on the other hand, is up a healthy 4.5% since Iridium reported its earnings.
Why is that?
It's because it doesn't really matter much anymore -- or soon won't -- how well Iridium does. Rocket Lab is buying Iridium, you see (in an $8 billion deal). And for this reason, Iridium's good news is actually really Rocket Lab's good news.
Image source: Getty Images.
How Iridium beat earnings in Q3
Heading into its report Tuesday, Wall Street analysts had Iridium pegged for a $ 0.34-per-share profit on $236.3 million in sales. Iridium crushed both numbers, reporting $0.98 per share in profit (nearly three times what the Street predicted) on sales of $245.7 million.
How did Iridium do that? Largely by making an acquisition of its own, of space-based air traffic surveillance company Aireon.
Iridium reacquired Aireon in July, and Iridium management credits this acquisition with much of its 8% year-over-year revenue increase. Gains "related to the acquisition of Aireon" likewise accounted for Iridium's earnings coming in triple what Wall Street expected. Perhaps more important for Rocket Lab investors, Iridium noted that bringing Aireon in-house gave Iridium control over "the world's only space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) air traffic surveillance system."
And when Rocket Lab's own acquisition of Iridium takes effect mid-next-year, that will mean Rocket Lab owns the world's only space-based air traffic surveillance system, making it a key part of Rocket Lab's plan to expand into satellite-based Internet of Things (IoT), direct-to-cell communications, and "position, navigation, and timing" (PNT) markets.
IRDM Iridium Communications$44.40+$0.61 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26
Speaking of which, now that Iridium shareholders have voted to approve the merger -- and now that Iridium has reported its latest financials -- it's worth taking a second look at how this merger will affect Rocket Lab once it absorbs Iridium (and Aireon) next year.
As I've already pointed out, analysts are optimistic about Iridium. Forecasts compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicate Iridium should earn more than $210 million next year, up 35.5% year over year, even if revenue doesn't grow much at all. Free cash flow is expected to grow more slowly, but still to rise a very respectable 28% to $379 million.
Assuming the analysts are doing their math right, that should be more than enough to cover Rocket Lab's expected $74 million loss next year, and make whole its $83 million in negative free cash flow as well. Thanks entirely to its prescient decision to buy Iridium, Rocket Lab should end up both profitable and free cash flow positive in 2027.
Indeed, Iridium might end up making even more money for Rocket Lab than analysts currently expect.
Consider: Current analyst estimates have Iridium earning $155 million this year, but according to the just-released Q3 earnings results, Iridium has already earned more than $138 million in just the first three quarters of 2026.
With 75% of the year over, Iridium is already 89% of the way to hitting the analysts' target for this year! And if Iridium is this far ahead of the game already in 2026, and growing faster than expected, it stands to reason that 2027's results might similarly come in stronger than what analysts have forecast.
RKLB Rocket Lab$52.60+$1.38 (+2.69%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26
What it means for Rocket Lab investors
At least, that's what Rocket Lab investors will be hoping. Back-of-the-napkin, it's looking now like a combined Rocket Lab-plus-Iridium might generate $300 million or so in positive free cash flow next year, which on Rocket Lab's current $45 billion market capitalization works out to a 150x forward price-to-free cash flow ratio on the stock.
That's... not exactly cheap. For Rocket Lab to be a buy at its current price, it had better hope Iridium performs even better in 2027 than it's already performing in 2026.
Two governments nearly 4,000 miles apart just tipped their hand about the next decade of spending.
This week, in Brussels, the European Union unveiled a sweeping new Arctic strategy featuring two flagship projects:
A secure satellite network, called IRIS² Arctic Connectivity, to carry government communications across the high north. A new undersea fiber cable linking Greenland directly to Europe. Because, as EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas put it, “Arctic security is European security.”
That same day, at Cape Canaveral, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory loaded military-style cargo pods – survival gear, medical equipment, trackers – onto a SpaceX (SPCX) rocket and flew them to orbit and back. The test is part of a program studying whether rockets could someday deliver supplies to troops anywhere on Earth within hours.
Two bureaucracies that rarely agree on anything have, in effect, issued the same memo: space operations are essential. Now governments are spending to guarantee access on their own terms.
A sovereign space system lets a country launch its own payloads, communicate securely, monitor threats, move supplies, and keep operating through a crisis.
For years, that was a think-tank concept. This month, it became a budget line. And that means it’s time for investors to start paying closer attention.
Europe Is Building Sovereign Space Infrastructure We’ll start with the Arctic because the region is becoming a bona fide arena of competition.
Melting ice is opening shipping lanes and mineral access. Russia has merged its Baltic and Arctic fleets, and undersea cables keep suffering mysterious “accidents.”
Europe’s response is telling. Its new strategy calls for the region’s own secure satellite constellation over the region, its own cable routes, and a new hub to watch over the infrastructure it already has.
The roughly 350-satellite constellation the EU is building is, in part, an alternative to Starlink – and coverage of the Arctic strategy made clear that several measures aim to reduce dependence on the United States, too.
Ukraine Shows the Risk of Depending on Someone Else’s Network It seems Europe has internalized a hard lesson over the past few years: connectivity becomes a national-security asset the moment somebody else controls the switch. Just ask Kyiv. Ukraine’s war effort has run on Starlink since 2022 – and this month delivered the starkest reminder yet of who really controls it. On Oct. 14, Ukrainian forces found their Starlink and Starshield terminals throttled without warning. Anything moving faster than roughly 100 mph – drones, aircraft – lost its connection, right as tensions between Washington and Kyiv were boiling over. Zelensky says identical terminals outside Ukraine kept working at those speeds, which is why Ukrainian officials believe the limits were aimed squarely at them.
Who gave the order is still in dispute. Musk says the U.S. military sets usage limits, the White House denies involvement, press reports point in both directions, and senators from both parties want an investigation. Either way, the lesson landed in Kyiv with full force: somebody else’s hand is on the dial.
Defense officials the world over watched that episode unfold. Which is why sovereignty spending is structurally different from commercial demand. It doesn’t shrink when GDP dips or a hyperscaler trims its budget. Its entire purpose is to exist regardless of what anyone else does.
America Is Running Into a Space Launch Capacity Bottleneck Now, the United States has the opposite problem. It doesn’t lack a space champion – it lacks room on the runway.
Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, the nation’s two great launch ranges, are running out of capacity as national-security launches and commercial missions surge. Congress has already allocated $1.3 billion for range construction through 2028, and the Space Force’s next budget request seeks another $2.2 billion for launch infrastructure on top of it.
The service awarded a contract worth up to $4 billion to modernize operations at both ranges into the next decade. And a congressionally mandated study just concluded the country likely needs an entirely new third spaceport capable of heavy and super-heavy launch – with a capability goal of 2030 that Space Force leadership itself calls aspirational.
In other words, the Pentagon is treating launch capacity the way it treats shipyards and runways: as strategic infrastructure that cannot be allowed to bottleneck.
The Pentagon Is Testing Space-Based Military Logistics Which brings us back to that cargo test at the Cape.
The capsule involved – SpaceX’s Starfall – is a squat, disk-shaped reentry vehicle about 10 feet across, built to bring roughly a metric ton of payload back from orbit. SpaceX publicly emphasizes microgravity manufacturing and research returns. But the Air Force’s interest points somewhere else entirely. Its Rocket Cargo program is studying whether large commercial rockets could deliver matériel anywhere on the globe on tactical timelines – to contested areas, disaster zones, or places aircraft can’t easily reach.
The program’s partner list runs from SpaceX and Blue Origin to Rocket Lab (RKLB), Sierra Space, and Anduril. And the Air Force already holds a contract with SpaceX to demonstrate delivering a transport plane’s worth of supplies anywhere on Earth in under 90 minutes using Starship.
None of this means ammo crates will be falling from the sky next year. Starfall is not a military delivery service today. This week’s test was about collecting data, not dropping supplies to troops. But the direction is clear – because putting assets overhead is only half the job. Keeping them fueled, repaired, and replaceable is the other half. And that’s the half the Pentagon just started rehearsing.
Meanwhile, aboard the International Space Station, astronauts are testing spacesuits, running lunar-agriculture experiments, and studying how human lungs behave in microgravity. Unglamorous stuff – yet no nation maintains a durable presence anywhere, on Earth or off it, without food, suits, medicine, and life support.
Once you put all the layers together, the architecture comes into focus. Launch establishes access. Communications create control. Logistics keep the system supplied. Life support makes it permanent. That’s the full stack of space sovereignty – and every layer of it is being funded, right now, across the globe.
Space Stocks Positioned Around the Sovereignty Buildout Here’s the throughline for investors. Every sovereign space program, whatever flag it flies, has to buy the same two things: hardware that survives in orbit, and the earthbound industrial base that launches, controls, and replaces it. Own the companies selling those, and you’re effectively collecting from every program at once.
A handful of public companies sit directly in that flow:
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the closest thing to a one-stop supplier outside SpaceX itself: launch vehicles, spacecraft platforms, and components that let governments avoid betting everything on a single provider – plus a seat in the Air Force’s orbital-logistics research. Its Neutron rocket is aimed squarely at the national-security launch market everyone just agreed is capacity-constrained. Redwire (RDW) supplies the power systems, structures, and mission hardware that sovereign satellites and stations are built from – picks and shovels for anyone, government or private, that wants a presence in orbit. Planet Labs (PL) and BlackSky (BKSY) sell what every government in this story ultimately wants – persistent, independent eyes on Earth. Watching infrastructure, borders, and fleets without relying on another nation’s intelligence is sovereignty in its purest form. Amentum (AMTM) is an under-the-radar ground play. Through its Jacobs Technology unit, it holds the Space Force Range Contract – worth up to $4 billion through 2035 – to modernize and run the Eastern and Western ranges. If America builds more launch capacity, somebody has to engineer, maintain, and operate it. Several of these plays are volatile small caps, and government procurement moves in lurches.
But the demand behind them is now being written into national strategies, on multiple continents, with security justifications that outlast any single budget cycle.
The Bottom Line: Governments Are Paying for Control Flags and footprints decided the last space race. Budgets and supply lines will decide this one.
Europe is buying sovereign communications. America is buying sovereign launch capacity and testing sovereign logistics. Both are spending like nations that believe access to orbit sits in the same category as access to oil, chips, and electricity: too important to rent.
But run back through everything we’ve discussed and count how often one company appears.
The rocket that flew the Air Force’s cargo test…
The constellation Europe is spending billions to avoid depending on…
The launch cadence overwhelming America’s ranges…
The Starship contract to deliver cargo anywhere on Earth in 90 minutes…
Governments on two continents are reorganizing budgets around capabilities that, today, largely exist inside Elon Musk’s empire – racing either to buy from it or to build around it. Either way, the spending flows toward the same map of hardware, suppliers, and chokepoints.
I’ve spent months charting that map as part of a research project I call “XPANSE“ – the full blueprint of what Musk is assembling, the constraints it has to break, and, most importantly for us, the publicly traded suppliers positioned at its hardest bottlenecks.
In my briefing, I walk through the three steps I believe investors should take now, and I give away the name and ticker symbol of one company sitting at the center of it all – for free.
The era of space sovereignty has a dozen governments as customers and one indispensable vendor. You can guess which side of that arrangement the profits favor.
Watch the full XPANSE briefing now to learn everything I know.
MAHIA, New Zealand, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today launched its Electron rocket to deliver a dedicated mission to space for HawkEye 360, a signals intelligence data and analytics company.
The ‘We're Not Hawking Around’ mission launched from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 8:11 p.m. NZDT on 23 October 2026, to deliver three HAWK satellites to a 520km low Earth orbit. Operating in tri-satellite formation, HawkEye 360's satellites collect signal data from across the radio frequency (RF) spectrum for maritime tracking, GNSS jamming detection, radar monitoring, communications mapping, and space defense.
Today’s mission was Rocket Lab’s 98th Electron launch and 19th launch this year, further extending the vehicle’s record as the most prolific launcher globally dedicated to small satellites.
Mission Highlights:
Proven Constellation Partnership: Today’s launch success marks the third Electron launch dedicated to deploying HawkEye 360’s RF-sensing satellites, underscoring Rocket Lab’s trusted role in scaling commercial constellations for its customers.Rapid Launch Cadence: Now at 19 successful missions in 2026 alone, Rocket Lab continues to demonstrate the turnaround speed, high production rate, and schedule assurance demanded by modern commercial satellite companies and defense operators.Milestone Small Launch Leadership: This 98th Electron flight moves Rocket Lab closer to a record 100 launches, solidifying the launch vehicle’s position as the world’s premier, most frequently launched dedicated small orbital rocket. ‘We’re Not Hawking Around’ launch images: click here
‘We’re Not Hawking Around’ launch broadcast: click here
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
SummaryRocket Lab Corporation is upgraded to Buy, while AST SpaceMobile remains a Sell, reinforcing the pair trade thesis after recent corrections.RKLB’s structural advantage stems from owning both launch and satellite assets, further strengthened by the Iridium acquisition, which provides immediate EBITDA positivity post-close.ASTS faces execution risk with its slipping satellite deployment timeline and continued downward revenue revisions, making its lower valuation multiples insufficient for an upgrade.RKLB’s near-term focus is on bookings, backlog, and Neutron progress, while ASTS must demonstrate tangible launch progress to avoid further estimate cuts. Yoshiyoshi Hirokawa/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Around 6 months ago I had rated AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) a Sell and Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) a hold—a view on which stock is still a better risk-managed
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
A recent manufacturing setback for Rocket Lab (RKLB +5.44%) raises new questions about Neutron's timeline, costs, and long‑term growth potential. Discover what this defect could mean for future launches, revenue, and shareholder risk in the video below.
*This video was published on Oct. 16, 2026.
Lou Whiteman has positions in Rocket Lab. Matt Frankel, CFP® has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Toby Bordelon has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
On October 21, 2026, Rocket Lab Corp RKLB shares rose 5.4% to a current price of $53.66. Despite today’s uptick, the stock has experienced a challenging year with a 52-week range of $37.57 to $151.00.
GF Value™ verdict: $53.66 vs $39.22, 36.8% overvaluedGF Score™: 80/100, indicating strong overall performanceNotable signal: Insiders sold $683.3M worth of shares over the past 12 months, with no buying activityIs RKLB Overvalued or Undervalued?Currently, Rocket Lab Corp's stock price of $53.66 significantly exceeds the GF Value™ estimate of $39.22, indicating that the stock is approximately 36.8% overvalued. The GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary estimate of a stock's intrinsic value, derived from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. Given that Rocket Lab is currently unprofitable and cash-flow negative, using traditional earnings-based valuation metrics like P/E does not apply effectively, making the GF Value™ a directional warning rather than a precise fair-value target.
This overvaluation presents risks for potential investors, particularly in an environment where the company is grappling with its profitability challenges. The GF Valuation label indicates that Rocket Lab is significantly overvalued, raising concerns about the sustainability of its current share price amidst a backdrop of declining stock performance over the past year and month.
How Does RKLB's Valuation Compare to Its History?MetricCurrentHistoricalP/E Ratio (TTM)N/A~19.0x (historical median)As the P/E ratio for Rocket Lab is not available due to the company's unprofitability, we cannot directly compare the current valuation to its historical levels. However, the GF Value™ verdict reinforces the notion that Rocket Lab's valuation is currently elevated relative to its historical performance, emphasizing the caution needed in approaching this stock.
What Does RKLB's GF Score™ Tell Us?The GF Score™ assesses a company's performance across multiple dimensions, including financial strength, profitability, growth potential, valuation, and momentum. Rocket Lab’s GF Score™ of 80/100 reflects a strong overall performance, but it also highlights areas that require attention.
MetricRatingGF Score™80/100Financial Strength8/10Profitability3/10Growth10/10Valuation5/10Momentum7/10The strong financial strength rating of 8/10 indicates that Rocket Lab is relatively stable in terms of its financial position. However, the low profitability rank of 3/10 raises concerns about its ability to generate consistent profits. On the positive side, a growth rank of 10/10 suggests that the company has significant potential for expansion, which may appeal to investors looking for growth opportunities despite current profitability challenges.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with RKLB?A total of 10 gurus currently hold positions in Rocket Lab, with 7 adding to their stakes and 4 trimming their holdings in recent quarters. This mixed activity among institutional investors can be interpreted as a sign of varying confidence in the company’s future prospects.
On the insider side, the sale of $683.3M worth of shares over the past year, with no reported buying, suggests a lack of confidence from those closest to the company. This selling activity may indicate that insiders are cautious about the company's near-term performance and potential for recovery in profitability.
What This Means for InvestorsBased on the analysis, Rocket Lab Corp appears to be overvalued at its current price of $53.66 compared to the GF Value™ estimate of $39.22, indicating a significant risk for potential investors. Given the company's struggles with profitability and the notable insider selling, caution is advised when considering an investment in RKLB. For further insights, visit the Rocket Lab Corp RKLB stock page.
Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is RKLB's GF Score™?
RKLB has a GF Score™ of 80/100, indicating strong overall performance with notable strengths in financial stability and growth potential.
Is RKLB overvalued or undervalued?
RKLB is currently overvalued, with a GF Value™ estimate of $39.22 compared to its market price of $53.66.
What is RKLB's P/E ratio?
RKLB does not have a P/E ratio available due to being unprofitable, which limits its comparison to historical valuations.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures
I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
On Sept. 22, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought roughly $25.1 million of Rocket Lab (RKLB +5.44%) shares, while selling $5.8 million of Alphabet (GOOG -1.62%) (GOOGL -1.62%) stock. However, Rocket Lab has since encountered another setback in its growth plans. On Oct. 14 , the company announced that its Neutron rocket's first launch had been delayed until 2027. Despite this setback, Ark Invest purchased another $9.3 million of Rocket Lab shares on Oct. 15.
Ark's investment decisions highlight the trade-off between Alphabet's established profitability and Rocket Lab's potentially higher, but less certain, long-term growth.
Ark Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood. Image source: Getty Images.
Alphabet's AI investments are showing results Alphabet's search advertising revenue growth was not driven solely by higher ad prices. The company's paid clicks rose 13% year over year, while average cost per click increased 3% year over year in the second quarter. Google Cloud revenue also jumped 82% year over year to $24.8 billion, and operating income more than tripled to $8.8 billion in the second quarter. These numbers show stronger advertising monetization and profitable cloud growth, although Alphabet doesn't separately disclose AI profits.
GOOG Alphabet$330.95-$5.45 (-1.62%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26
Alphabet's upcoming third-quarter results on Oct. 28 could provide further clarity on its AI investments. J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth expects Google Cloud revenue to double year over year, partly driven by solid demand for Google's custom AI chips. However, Alphabet has also guided for $195 billion to $205 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. With such massive spending, sustaining revenue growth while protecting profit margins will be increasingly important.
Why Ark remains interested in Rocket Lab Ark's investment thesis relies on a possible shortage of launch capacity in the U.S. in the coming years. The investment firm expects Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.80%), better known as SpaceX, could retire its existing Falcon 9 rocket launch system by the end of 2030, while increasingly using its next-generation Starship rocket to support orbital AI data centers. This could create opportunities for competing launch providers, including Rocket Lab, as government agencies, communications providers, and other commercial customers seek alternatives to SpaceX.
RKLB Rocket Lab$53.67+$2.77 (+5.44%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26
Rocket Lab already has evidence of commercial demand. The company has entered a multiyear launch deal with Synspective for 20 launch missions using its operational Electron rockets. The company also exited the second quarter (ending June 30, 2026) with a backlog of $2.36 billion. Rocket Lab's space systems segment, which manufactures satellites, spacecraft components, and related equipment, accounted for nearly 81% of the second-quarter revenue. Hence, Rocket Lab's existing business is not entirely dependent on Neutron's success.
However, realizing Ark's expected launch-market opportunity depends on Neutron becoming commercially successful. Rocket Lab has secured a launch contract with Kepler Communications for satellites supporting on-orbit computing, but the mission is scheduled no earlier than 2028. Hence, even a successful first Neutron launch in 2027 cannot guarantee regular, profitable operations.
Rocket Lab has also raised $1.94 billion by issuing 29.3 million shares to help fund its planned acquisition of Iridium Communications. While the deal could add recurring revenue, the share issuance also dilutes existing shareholders.
Rocket Lab is currently trading at over 39 times trailing-12-month sales, leaving very little room for execution missteps. Alphabet is trading at just close to 9.3 times sales, despite established profitability and more visible AI monetization. Hence, Alphabet currently appears to offer the stronger risk-adjusted AI investment opportunity, although Rocket Lab could deliver greater returns if its ambitious expansion succeeds.
Rocket Lab's (RKLB +4.44%) stock price declined 23% from Oct. 12 to Oct. 16, marking its worst single-week decline since its public debut five years ago. Let's see what caused Rocket Lab's stock to fizzle out -- and if that pullback represents a buying opportunity.
A double whammy of bad news Rocket Lab produces reusable orbital rockets for NASA and other organizations. It's successfully launched its Electron rockets 97 times to deploy over 268 satellites. The Electron carries much smaller payloads than SpaceX's (SPCX +6.91%) Falcon rockets.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rocket Lab originally planned to launch its larger Neutron rocket, which was designed to directly compete against SpaceX's Falcon 9, by the end of 2026. But on Oct. 14, it postponed the Neutron's first launch to 2027, due to a defect in its carbon-composite tank.
That wasn't the first time Rocket Lab delayed the Neutron. Back when it unveiled the Neutron in 2021, it planned to launch its first rocket by 2024. But it eventually pushed that target back to 2025 and 2026 -- so its latest delay to 2027 raises some bright red flags.
That same week, Ligado Networks sent a letter to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to challenge Rocket Lab's planned takeover of Iridium (IRDM +0.64%). Ligado argues that Iridium, which tried to block its partnership with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -0.63%), regularly uses petitions to delay competing satellite services. If the FCC scrutinizes that $8 billion deal, it could stunt Rocket Lab's expansion into an end-to-end space services company.
RKLB Rocket Lab$53.16+$2.26 (+4.44%)
NASDAQ · As of 2:26 PM ET 10/21/26
Did investors overreact to those setbacks? Those setbacks were disappointing, but Rocket Lab only generated 19% of its revenue from its Launch Services segment, which handles its Electron and Neutron rockets, in its latest quarter.
The remaining 81% came from its Space Systems segment, which produces satellite components, solar panels, and complete spacecraft buses. Its acquisition of Iridium, which it expects to close in 2027, will expand that segment with a global satellite network.
Rocket Lab is still generating plenty of revenue from its Electron launches, and it's already locked in major government and commercial customers for the Neutron. It's also securing more satellite construction contracts from the U.S. Space Development Agency and other clients.
That's why Rocket Lab's backlog grew to $2.36 billion at the end of the second quarter. That's more than double its projected revenue of $959 million for 2026. Analysts expect its revenue to rise 38% to $1.33 billion in 2027 and 31% to $1.74 billion in 2028 -- but that outlook depends on the successful introduction of the Neutron and its acquisition of Iridium.
Does Rocket Lab's pullback represent a buying opportunity? With a market cap of $30.5 billion, Rocket Lab still trades at 32 times this year's sales. It's also expected to stay unprofitable until 2028. That high valuation and red ink should limit its upside potential as long as high interest rates drive investors toward more conservative investments.
Intense competition from SpaceX -- which already launches more rockets and satellites -- could also keep contrarian investors away from Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and other smaller space stocks. Therefore, investors shouldn't be too surprised that two setbacks caused Rocket Lab's stock to shed over a fifth of its value in just a week. They should also realize it could still get cut in half in this market before it attracts more value-seeking investors.
Rocket Lab could still grow significantly over the next few years, but investors shouldn't pay the wrong price for the right stock. I'd wait for the company to make clearer progress toward its first Neutron launch -- and close its acquisition of Iridium -- before buying the stock.
SpaceX stock is surging after a blowout quarter, but the earnings call just ignited a far bigger conversation about combining two of Elon Musk's most valuable companies into something the market has never seen before.
A revenue beat and fresh merger talk are carrying one space name far ahead of its sector. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is at $159.94, up 8% in morning trading, after the company posted Q3 2026 results that topped analysts’ expectations. The gain puts SpaceX stock at the front of a space rally that’s moving at a much slower pace everywhere else.
For a sector read, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is at $41.09, up 4%. Against that background, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is at $770.88, up 0.28%, a far smaller move for the broad market. Space names are outpacing the market, and SpaceX stock is pulling away from the UFO sector fund as well.
Revenue Beat and Merger Committees Lift SpaceX Results released after the prior session’s close showed SpaceX third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, well above analysts’ expectations. That top-line beat arrived alongside earnings per share that also cleared estimates, so SpaceX came out ahead on both measures. The strong quarter set up an earnings call where the merger discussion took center stage.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is the other company in the merger idea adding fuel to the move in SpaceX stock. On the earnings call, SpaceX founder Elon Musk stated that SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees of independent directors to study a merger. Because he’s a interested party, Musk stated that he can’t take part in the committees’ discussions himself.
Elon Musk warned against assuming a merger is a certainty, then added, “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.” He also stated that the committees “have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction,” adding, “And obviously there’s no guarantee that they will.” In his view, the case for combining SpaceX and Tesla rests on shared work in areas such as chip design, robotics and connectivity.
SpaceX combines rocket launches, the Starlink satellite network and a fast-growing compute business, so its results now turn on artificial intelligence (AI) demand (we covered seven companies supplying the AI data-center expansion, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here). Musk’s view of that demand was blunt: “I think we’re going to face a shortage of superintelligence compute. And that shortage is going to remain for a long time.”
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Trail the Leader Gains elsewhere in the space group are far smaller. Notably, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is at $52.10, up 2%, a modest advance next to the jump in SpaceX stock. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is at $41.48, up 0.9%, the smallest gain among the space names covered here.
Rocket Lab earns its revenue from launches and spacecraft hardware, while AST SpaceMobile is still building a satellite network for direct-to-phone service. Those business lines leave SpaceX as the only company in this group with large compute exposure. Musk tied the merger case to that same theme, stating, “I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity.”
The move rests on SpaceX’s own quarter and on Musk’s openness to a Tesla combination, a concentration that cuts both ways. SpaceX stock holds the upside of its AI build and a possible merger, while any stumble in the committee talks could fall largely on SpaceX shares alone.
Merger Committees Hold the Next Chapter for SpaceX One open variable for SpaceX is whether the special committees produce a merger proposal. A formal plan could support SpaceX stock, given how openly Musk has backed the idea. Any formal update from the SpaceX or Tesla special committees will be worth watching.
SpaceX’s main risk sits in the distance between Musk’s enthusiasm and the committees’ unfinished work. Execution on AI demand adds a second layer of uncertainty, since SpaceX’s results now lean on it heavily. Investors should consider keeping their SPCX position sizes modest until the SpaceX merger review concludes.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The Nasdaq-100 index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -0.02%). Most Wall Street analysts see triple-digit upside in two of those stocks, as explained below:
CoreWeave (CRWV +1.65%) has a median target price of $142.50 per share. That implies 126% upside from its current share price of $62.Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.90%) has a median target price of $105 per share. That implies 105% upside from its current share price of $51.Here's what investors should know about these technology stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
CoreWeave: 126% upside implied by Wall Street's median target priceCoreWeave is a leading neocloud company. Its data centers are purpose-built to support artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, using large clusters of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) to provide clients with the computing power needed for training and inference tasks.
CoreWeave is widely regarded as a leader in AI cloud services. Its systems routinely deliver record-breaking results when measured in objective tests, reflecting expertise in managing GPU clusters. Dylan Patel at SemiAnalysis called CoreWeave an operational benchmark for the industry. "CoreWeave's sustained excellence across the stack is unique."
CoreWeave shares surged 14% when the company reported strong second-quarter results, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 112% to $2.5 billion, but the non-GAAP net loss widened to $567 million, driven by increased interest expense as CoreWeave continued to finance infrastructure expansion projects.
Essentially, CoreWeave is growing very quickly due to massive demand for AI infrastructure, and CEO Michael Intrator told analysts, "We expect demand to meaningfully exceed supply for years." But the company is also spending a tremendous amount of money to achieve that growth. The question is this: Can CoreWeave convert that demand into durable profits quickly enough to cover its infrastructure investments and financing costs?
Of course, it is impossible to answer that question with absolute certainty. But CoreWeave currently trades at 4.3 times sales, which looks relatively cheap for a company whose revenue is projected to grow at 101% annually through 2028. With shares 66% below their record high, investors should consider buying a small position in this AI stock today.
RKLB Rocket Lab$50.90-$0.46 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/20/26
Rocket Lab: 105% upside implied by Wall Street's median target priceRocket Lab is a vertically integrated aerospace and defense company that manufactures and launches rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components. Its Electron rocket carries small satellites into orbit, while its larger Neutron rocket is being developed to carry heavier payloads. Its customers include commercial satellite operators and the U.S. military.
Rocket Lab has a competitive advantage in that it has already dedicated several years and substantial capital to developing reliable rockets. Space Exploration Technologies remains the dominant player in the commercial space launch, but Rocket Lab is one of the few companies that could compete with SpaceX.
Rocket Lab reported reasonably good financial results in the second quarter. Revenue rose 62% to $234 million, driven by strong demand for its space systems and launch services. The company lost $0.08 per diluted share, an improvement from $0.13 per diluted share in the same quarter last year. The company also reported a record backlog of $2.3 billion, up 137%, hinting at strong future revenue growth.
Valuing Rocket Lab is difficult because the company is not profitable. But the stock trades at 39 times sales, an expensive valuation even when Wall Street expects revenue to grow at about 40% annually through 2028. For context, only three stocks in the S&P 500 have higher price-to-sales ratios than Rocket Lab.
Here's the bottom line: Investors interested in the burgeoning space economy can buy a few shares of Rocket Lab today, but I would keep the position very small. The valuation, coupled with intense competition from SpaceX, makes it a somewhat risky investment. There is no guarantee this stock doubles in the next year.
I've been a fan of Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.90%) for years, but have never pulled the trigger on the stock. The business continued to show impressive traction, but I had valuation concerns that kept me on the sidelines.
Last week, Rocket Lab delayed its Neutron rocket for the second time this year, and the stock fell sharply on the news. In fact, Rocket Lab now trades for about two-thirds below its all-time high (reached in May), and even with the delay, I'm finally about to buy my first shares.
The Neutron delay: What you need to knowEvery Rocket Lab launch to date has used its small Electron rocket, but the company has been developing a reusable medium-lift rocket, Neutron, for several years. This is designed to carry much larger payloads and to compete with SpaceX's (SPCX -0.11%) Falcon 9.
Image source: Getty Images.
Its first launch (which had already been delayed several times) was supposed to happen in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, a recent inspection found a manufacturing flaw in the carbon composite of a tank dome in the rocket's first stage, so the company is now building a replacement.
Rocket Lab now expects the first Neutron launch in 2027, and it won't set a date until it finishes first-stage testing. It hopes to complete this step in the first quarter.
RKLB Rocket Lab$50.90-$0.46 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/20/26
Of course, this isn't great news. Management's goal of positive adjusted EBITDA is tied to Neutron's success, so this likely delays the company's path to profitability as well.
How Rocket Lab makes its money todayYou might be surprised how little of Rocket Lab's revenue depends directly on launches. In the second quarter, Rocket Lab's revenue reached $234 million, representing 62% year-over-year growth, with $190 million from space systems (satellites, spacecraft, and components).
Rocket Lab ended the second quarter with $2.36 billion of revenue in backlog, more than double the year-ago level, so it's fair to say that a lot of this future revenue will be Neutron-dependent. On one hand, about 60% of the backlog comes from space systems. But there is a backlog of about 100 upcoming missions, and although many are Electron launches, the Neutron certainly plays a role in this. In other words, the Neutron delay pushes back some future revenue, but most of the backlog doesn't depend on it.
However, it's also worth mentioning that Rocket Lab has agreed to acquire Iridium Communications for about $8 billion, including debt. This deal, expected to close in mid-2027, will add a large base of recurring satellite services revenue as well as valuable spectrum assets. Rocket Lab will be able to build, launch, and operate its own satellite networks, putting it in very exclusive company.
To be sure, Rocket Lab isn't a particularly cheap stock, even after the recent decline. At the current market cap, it trades for about 40 times sales, and it's still losing money. Plus, more Neutron delays are certainly possible.
However, the long-term potential here is massive, and I'm going to start with a small position. This is generally how I start any stock I want to own, but I feel it is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum. The idea here is that if I'm completely right, a small investment will still produce significant gains in my portfolio, but if I'm completely wrong, any declines wouldn't have a massive impact.
I plan to add over time, especially as Rocket Lab hits its milestones, including the Neutron's first launch. The delay is frustrating, but it doesn't change the long-term thesis. The backlog keeps rising, Iridium will add a profitable revenue stream when that deal closes, and the current valuation feels like one where patient investors can be rewarded.
LONG BEACH, Calif., Oct. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced that it will release its financial results for the third quarter 2026 following the close of the U.S. markets on Monday November 9th, 2026. Rocket Lab will host a corresponding conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time).
A live webcast and replay of the conference call will be available on the Company’s Investor Relations website at www.investors.rocketlabcorp.com.
Rocket Lab Investor Relations Contact
Patrick Vorenkamp [email protected]
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab is a leading space company that provides launch services, spacecraft, payloads, and satellite components serving commercial, government, and national security markets. Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is the world’s most frequently launched orbital small rocket; its HASTE rocket provides hypersonic test launch capability for the U.S. government and allied nations; and its Neutron launch vehicle in development will unlock medium launch for constellation deployment, national security and exploration missions. Rocket Lab’s spacecraft and satellite components have enabled more than 1,700 missions spanning commercial, defense and national security missions including GPS, constellations, and exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and Venus. Rocket Lab is a publicly listed company on the Nasdaq stock exchange (RKLB). Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) topped estimates on both the top and bottom lines after Tuesday's close. The rest of the space sector barely stirred.
SummaryRocket Lab fell to roughly $51, creating a substantially better risk-reward setup despite Neutron’s inaugural launch slipping into 2027.Q2 revenue surged 62% to $234 million, while backlog reached $2.36 billion, and Space Systems represented 81% of revenue.Neutron’s biggest risk is manufacturing maturity, with another first-stage tank problem making successful qualification the critical 2027 de-risking milestone.RKLB trades around 29.4x forward EV/Sales, below AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, despite its increasingly diversified space infrastructure platform. Alones Creative/iStock via Getty Images
Introduction It has never been difficult for me to believe in Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB). It has always been difficult for me to evaluate the company in a proper way due to overpaying
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKLB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Completes acquisition of Aireon; Pending acquisition by Rocket Lab receives stockholder approval
, /PRNewswire/ -- Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM) ("Iridium" or the "Company"), a leading provider of global voice, data, aircraft surveillance, and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) satellite services, today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2026.
Update on Pending Transaction with Rocket Lab
On June 28, 2026, the Company entered into a definitive agreement with Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) ("Rocket Lab") under which Rocket Lab will acquire the Company. Iridium stockholders approved the transaction at a Special Meeting of Stockholders on September 24, 2026 with 99.6% of the votes cast voting in favor of the transaction, representing 81.4% of Iridium's outstanding shares of common stock entitled to vote. The transaction is expected to be completed by mid-2027, subject to the satisfaction of the remaining regulatory approvals and closing conditions.
"Last month's stockholder approval for Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium was an important milestone in creating a next generation space powerhouse," said Matt Desch, CEO, Iridium. Desch continued, "The combination of these two leading space companies will unlock new innovation in the space industry and accelerate our growth in critical space-based missions."
Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Iridium reported third quarter total revenue of $245.7 million, an 8% increase versus the comparable period of 2025. Service revenue grew 13% from the year-ago period, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon, and was 76% of total revenue for the third quarter of 2026.
Income from Operations
Net income was $106.9 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2026, as compared to net income of $37.1 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily the result of the $103.9 million gain related to the acquisition of Aireon, which is included in the Company's condensed consolidated statements starting in the third quarter. Operational EBITDA ("OEBITDA")(1) for the third quarter of 2026 was $135.6 million, as compared to $136.6 million for the prior-year period. The year-over-year change in OEBITDA was partly due to $4.5 million in higher expenses related to the previously disclosed change to pay annual incentive compensation solely in cash.
Subscribers
The Company ended the third quarter with 2,696,000 total billable subscribers, up from 2,542,000 for the year-ago period and 2,627,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Total billable subscribers grew 6% year-over-year, led by growth in commercial Internet of Things (IoT).
Business Highlights
Service – Commercial
Commercial service remained the largest part of Iridium's business, representing 65% of the Company's total revenue during the third quarter. Commercial service revenue was $159.9 million, up 16% from the comparable period last year, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon. Hosted payload and other data service revenue increased $22.7 million, or 121%, in the third quarter, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon.
Service – U.S. Government
Government service revenue grew 2% to $27.6 million in the third quarter, reflecting contractual rate increases in the Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services contract (the "EMSS Contract") over the prior year. The U.S. government continues to be Iridium's largest single customer, representing 15% of service revenue and nearly all of the Company's engineering services and support business.
On September 11, 2026, the U.S. Space Force exercised its option to extend the EMSS Contract with Iridium through March 2027, at the same contractual rate. Iridium continues to expect a renewal of the EMSS Contract in 2027.
Equipment
Equipment revenue was $19.0 million in the third quarter, compared to $21.5 million in the prior-year quarter.
Engineering & Support
Engineering and support revenue was $39.2 million during the third quarter, compared to $40.2 million in the prior-year quarter.
Closing of Aireon Acquisition
Iridium completed its acquisition of Aireon, operator of the world's only space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) air traffic surveillance system, on July 2, 2026. The acquisition solidifies Iridium as the premier global provider of integrated communications, navigation, and surveillance solutions for airlines and air navigation service providers to enable a safer, more connected, and more efficient aviation ecosystem.
Capital Allocation
Capital expenditures were $27.4 million for the third quarter, including $2.2 million in capitalized interest. The Company ended the third quarter with gross debt of $2.2 billion, and a cash and cash equivalents balance of $97.9 million, for a net debt balance of $2.1 billion.
In conjunction with the Company's acquisition of Aireon, Iridium assumed Aireon's existing credit facility with an aggregate principal balance of $154.7 million with a scheduled maturity date of October 10, 2028 and deferred 50% of the purchase price in the form of a $183.4 million loan from the sellers, bearing no interest and maturing one year following closing. The Company also drew $100.0 million on the Company's revolving credit facility in advance of closing and $50.0 million remained outstanding as of September 30, 2026. The Company ended the third quarter with net leverage of 4.2 times trailing twelve months OEBITDA.
Iridium paid its third quarter dividend of $0.15 per share of common stock on September 30, 2026, resulting in a total payment of $16.3 million to stockholders. The Company's Board of Directors plans to increase the quarterly dividend to $0.16 per share starting with the fourth quarter 2026 dividend, which would result in a full-year dividend increase of 5.2%.
(1) Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Definitions
In addition to disclosing financial results that are determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP, the Company reports OEBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, as a supplemental measure to help investors evaluate the Company's fundamental operational performance. OEBITDA represents earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, gain (loss) on equity method investments, transaction related expenses, and share-based compensation expenses. The Company considers the loss on early extinguishment of debt to be financing-related costs associated with interest expense or amortization of financing fees, which by definition are excluded from OEBITDA. Management believes such charges are incidental to, but not reflective of, the Company's day-to-day operating performance. OEBITDA does not represent, and should not be considered, an alternative to U.S. GAAP measurements such as net income or loss. In addition, there is no standardized measurement of OEBITDA, and the Company's calculations thereof may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. The Company believes OEBITDA is a useful measure across time in evaluating its fundamental operational performance. Management also uses OEBITDA to manage the business, including in preparing its annual operating budget, debt covenant compliance, financial projections and compensation plans. The Company believes that OEBITDA is also useful to investors because similar measures are frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in their evaluation of companies in similar industries. OEBITDA does not include interest expense on borrowed money, the payment of income taxes, amortization of the Company's definite-lived intangible assets, or depreciation expense on the Company's capital assets, which are necessary elements of the Company's operations. Since OEBITDA does not account for these and other expenses, its utility as a measure of the Company's operating performance has material limitations. Due to these limitations, the Company's management does not view OEBITDA in isolation, but also uses other measurements, such as net income, revenues and operating profit, to measure operating performance. Please refer to the schedule below for a reconciliation of consolidated GAAP net income to OEBITDA and Iridium's Investor Relations webpage at www.iridium.com for a discussion and reconciliation of this and other non-GAAP financial measures.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Supplemental Reconciliation of GAAP Net Income to Operational EBITDA
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended September 30,
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
GAAP net income
$ 106,896
$ 37,127
$ 138,169
$ 89,507
Interest expense, net
26,788
22,593
65,400
67,169
Income tax expense
2,186
10,003
14,138
19,629
Depreciation and amortization
62,094
52,975
169,698
157,479
Share-based compensation
20,231
13,155
48,972
43,992
Transaction-related expenses(1)
21,294
—
36,318
—
(Gain) loss on equity method investments
(103,868)
734
(101,626)
2,242
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
(1)
Represents direct costs incurred in connection with the evaluation, negotiation, consummation, financing and integration of strategic transactions, including acquisitions, divestitures and investments, whether or not actually completed. These costs generally include legal and advisory fees, severance and other related costs.
About Iridium Communications Inc.
Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM) operates the world's only truly global mobile satellite network. It serves as a platform for innovation, enabling voice, data, and messaging, positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), and aircraft surveillance services anywhere on Earth. Through its satellite constellation and integrated capabilities like Aireon, the world's only space-based air traffic surveillance system, Iridium delivers services that support safety-focused operations across aviation, maritime, government, industrial, and consumer markets. The Company is a leader in satellite Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity and is advancing direct-to-device (D2D) communications based on open standards to expand access to satellite services.
Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Iridium innovates through an ecosystem of more than 500 technology and distribution partners, serving millions of customers worldwide. For more information, visit www.iridium.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements in this press release that are not purely historical facts may constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Iridium has based these statements on its current expectations and the information currently available to it. Forward-looking statements in this press release include statements regarding Iridium's strategy and growth opportunities; Iridium's acquisition by Rocket Lab and the benefits and expected timing and completion thereof; the expected benefits of Iridium's acquisition of Aireon; expectations related to the renewal of the EMSS Contract and the expected timing thereof; and plans regarding Iridium's quarterly dividends. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words "anticipates," "may," "can," "believes," "expects," "projects," "intends," "likely," "will," "to be" and other expressions that are predictions or indicate future events, trends or prospects. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance, or achievements of Iridium to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties regarding customer demand for Iridium's products and services, including demand from the U.S. government; Iridium's ability to maintain the health, capacity and content of its satellite constellation; the development of and market for Iridium's products and services; increased competition; risks related to Iridium's pending acquisition by Rocket Lab, including the risk that regulatory approvals or other closing conditions may not be obtained, satisfied or waived, that the proposed transaction may be delayed or not completed, that the anticipated benefits of the proposed transaction may not be realized, the impact of pending or potential litigation relating to the proposed transaction against Rocket Lab, Iridium or their respective directors, managers, or officers, including the effects of any outcomes related thereto, the risk that disruptions from the proposed transaction will harm Rocket Lab's or Iridium's businesses, including current plans and operations, or will otherwise divert management time from ongoing business operations on transaction-related issues, potential adverse reactions or changes to business relationships resulting from the announcement or completion of the proposed transaction, fluctuations in, and uncertainty as to the long-term value of, Rocket Lab or Iridium common stock (including as relating to the risk that any announcements related to the proposed transaction could have adverse effects on the market price of such stock), restrictions during the pendency of the proposed transaction that may impact Iridium's ability to pursue certain business opportunities or strategic transactions, and unexpected costs, charges or expenses resulting from the proposed transaction; risks related to Iridium's recent acquisition of Aireon; the risk that the EMSS Contract may not be renewed on as favorable terms or at all; changes in trade policy, including tariff rates, as well as general industry and economic conditions; and legal, governmental and technological factors. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements include those factors listed under the caption "Risk Factors" in the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on February 12, 2026, and the Company's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed with the SEC on October 20, 2026, as well as other filings Iridium makes with the SEC from time to time. There is no assurance that Iridium's expectations will be realized. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if Iridium's underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may differ materially from those expected, estimated or projected. Iridium's forward-looking statements are based on information available to it as of the date of this press release and speak only as of the date of this press release, and Iridium undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
Revenue
Service revenue
Commercial
$ 159,925
$ 138,333
Government
27,573
26,910
Total service revenue
187,498
165,243
Subscriber equipment
19,045
21,507
Engineering and support service
39,190
40,185
Total revenue
245,733
226,935
Operating expenses
Cost of services (exclusive of depreciation and amortization)
60,666
50,762
Cost of subscriber equipment sales
11,609
12,661
Research and development
4,810
4,944
Selling, general and administrative
74,936
35,508
Depreciation and amortization
62,094
52,975
Total operating expenses
214,115
156,850
Operating income
31,618
70,085
Other expense, net
Interest expense, net
(26,788)
(22,593)
Other income, net
384
372
Total other expense, net
(26,404)
(22,221)
Income before income taxes and gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
5,214
47,864
Income tax expense
(2,186)
(10,003)
Gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
103,868
(734)
Net income
$ 106,896
$ 37,127
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
Iridium Communications Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands)
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
Revenue
Service revenue
Commercial
$ 424,032
$ 394,695
Government
82,823
80,410
Total service revenue
506,855
475,105
Subscriber equipment
60,031
64,083
Engineering and support service
123,141
119,531
Total revenue
690,027
658,719
Operating expenses
Cost of services (exclusive of depreciation and amortization)
161,616
153,152
Cost of subscriber equipment sales
38,101
36,830
Research and development
16,514
14,640
Selling, general and administrative
187,759
115,887
Depreciation and amortization
169,698
157,479
Total operating expenses
573,688
477,988
Operating income
116,339
180,731
Other expense, net
Interest expense, net
(65,400)
(67,169)
Other expense, net
(258)
(2,184)
Total other expense, net
(65,658)
(69,353)
Income before income taxes and gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
50,681
111,378
Income tax expense
(14,138)
(19,629)
Gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
101,626
(2,242)
Net income
$ 138,169
$ 89,507
Operational EBITDA
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
Iridium Communications Inc.
Summary Revenue and OEBITDA Highlights
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
2026
2025
% Change
Revenue
Service revenue(1)
Commercial service revenue
Voice and data
$ 58,002
$ 59,930
(3) %
$ 173,822
$ 172,682
1 %
IoT data(2)
48,669
46,707
4 %
141,706
135,303
5 %
Broadband(3)
11,822
12,970
(9) %
35,718
38,570
(7) %
Hosted payload and other data service(4)
41,432
18,726
121 %
72,786
48,140
51 %
Total commercial service revenue
159,925
138,333
16 %
424,032
394,695
7 %
Government service revenue(5)
27,573
26,910
2 %
82,823
80,410
3 %
Total service revenue
187,498
165,243
13 %
506,855
475,105
7 %
Subscriber equipment
19,045
21,507
(11) %
60,031
64,083
(6) %
Engineering and support(6)
Commercial
317
1,852
(83) %
3,348
5,893
(43) %
Government
38,873
38,333
1 %
119,793
113,638
5 %
Total engineering and support
39,190
40,185
(2) %
123,141
119,531
3 %
Total revenue
$ 245,733
$ 226,935
8 %
$ 690,027
$ 658,719
5 %
Operational EBITDA
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
(1) %
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
(2) %
Other
Capital expenditures(7)
$ 27,447
$ 21,535
$ 79,238
$ 66,791
Net debt(8)
$ 2,061,605
$ 1,736,188
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities
$ 97,853
$ 88,533
Gross debt(9)
$ 2,159,458
$ 1,824,721
Deferred financing costs
(20,130)
(14,878)
Debt, net
$ 2,139,328
$ 1,809,843
(1)
Service revenue consists primarily of subscription-based services which often generate a long-term recurring revenue stream from subscribers.
(2)
IoT data service provides a two-way short burst data transmission between Iridium's network and a telemetry unit, which may be located, for example, on a container in transit or a buoy monitoring oceanographic conditions.
(3)
Broadband is comprised of Iridium OpenPort® and Iridium Certus®.
(4)
Hosted payload and other data services consist primarily of services that do not have traditional billable subscribers, including hosting and other data services to Iridium's payload customers, Aireon (through the acquisition date of July 2, 2026), and L3Harris Technologies, Inc. After the Aireon acquisition date, hosted payload services also include revenue associated with Iridium's space-based ADS-B, air traffic surveillance system, and related data services. Other data services primarily include Iridium's positioning, navigation and timing service.
(5)
Government service revenue consists of voice and IoT data subscription-based services provided to agencies of the U.S. government through prime contracts.
(6)
Engineering and support includes engineering services for the Space Development Agency contract and to assist commercial customers in developing new technologies for use on Iridium's satellite system, as well as maintenance services to the U.S. government's dedicated gateway.
(7)
Capital expenditures based on cash spent in the respective period.
(8)
Net debt is calculated as gross debt less cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
(9)
Gross debt includes amounts outstanding under Iridium's Term Loan and Revolving Credit Facility, Aireon's existing credit facility assumed in the acquisition, and the loan from the Aireon sellers.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Subscriber Highlights
(In thousands, except ARPU)
As of September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
Billable Subscribers (1) (2)
Commercial
Voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
Voice and data
396
411
(4) %
IoT data
2,163
1,991
9 %
Broadband (3)
16.0
16.3
(2) %
Total commercial voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
2,575
2,418
6 %
Government
Voice and data and IoT data service
Voice and data
44
45
(2) %
IoT data
77
79
(2) %
Total government voice and data and IoT data service
121
124
(2) %
Total billable subscribers
2,696
2,542
6 %
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Net Billable Subscriber Additions
Commercial
Voice and data. IoT data and Broadband service
Voice and data
(6)
(4)
(6)
(4)
IoT data
72
67
165
104
Broadband
—
—
(0.1)
(0.3)
Total commercial voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
66
63
159
100
Government
Voice and data and IoT data service
Voice and data
2
(4)
1
(17)
IoT data
1
—
(1)
—
Total government voice and data and IoT data service
3
(4)
—
(17)
Total net billable subscriber additions
69
59
159
83
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
2026
2025
% Change
ARPU (2) (4)
Commercial
Voice and data
$ 48
$ 48
— %
$ 48
$ 46
4 %
IoT data
$ 7.63
$ 7.95
(4) %
$ 7.57
$ 7.75
(2) %
Broadband
$ 246
$ 265
(7) %
$ 248
$ 261
(5) %
(1)
Subscribers as of the end of the respective period.
(2)
Billable subscriber and average monthly revenue per unit ("ARPU") data is not applicable for hosted payload and other data service revenue items and is excluded from presentation above.
(3)
Broadband is comprised of Iridium OpenPort and Iridium Certus.
(4)
ARPU is calculated by dividing revenue in the respective period by the average of the number of billable subscribers at the beginning of the period and the number of billable subscribers at the end of the period and then dividing the result by the number of months in the period.
While the precipitous fall of CoreWeave's stock hogged many headlines this past week, it was an equally rough ride for Rocket Lab (RKLB +1.02%) and its investors. Shares of the end-to-end space company fell more than 25% as of Oct. 16. A delay in the company's Neutron rocket launch, combined with Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +1.32%) momentum, led to the poor performance.
RKLB Rocket Lab$51.36+$0.52 (+1.02%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/19/26
The Neutron rocket is a crucial part of Rocket Lab's plan to move into medium-lift launches and compete with SpaceX for market share. Unfortunately, engineers discovered a small manufacturing defect, which led the company to push back the launch to 2027. This is not the first time the launch has been delayed, and investors are losing their patience.
Sure, SpaceX is a well-funded powerhouse, and the Neutron delay isn't great, but the 25% drop seems largely overblown. Rocket Lab still has a backlog of more than $2.3 billion, and approximately 45% of that will be converted into revenue in the next year.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Additionally, the company's second-quarter revenue popped 62%, and the third quarter looks like it'll stay on that same growth trajectory. This is all happening already without Neutron. Getting Neutron up and running is important, but Rocket Lab has much more to offer through its space systems segment, which includes components, satellites, and spacecraft.
Rocket Lab's price dip is a welcome relief for a stock that was trading at a very high premium. It's still a high-risk investment, but the company's main sources of revenue and backlog are intact and continue to grow. I see this more as an opportunity, and any short-term panicking is very much overblown in my opinion.
Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The delay of the Neutron launch has huge implications for investors.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Oct. 15, 2026. The video was published on Oct. 17, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
In the latest trading session, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) closed at $51.36, marking a +1.02% move from the previous day. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.41%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.07%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 1.11%.
The company's stock has dropped by 21.26% in the past month, falling short of the Aerospace sector's loss of 3.97% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.46%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Rocket Lab Corporation in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company is predicted to post an EPS of -$0.02, indicating a 300% decline compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $255.89 million, indicating a 65% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of -$0.05 per share and revenue of $945.03 million, indicating changes of +81.48% and +57.03%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Rocket Lab Corporation. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Right now, Rocket Lab Corporation possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Aerospace - Defense Equipment industry is part of the Aerospace sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 56, positioning it in the top 23% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
Last week was a bad one for rocket company Rocket Lab (RKLB +3.17%). It plunged on news that it would be delaying the launch of Neutron, which is now not expected to take place until next year. There have been multiple delays, and investors are growing frustrated.
In just the past six months, the stock has declined by close to 40%, with many investors potentially pivoting instead to Space Exploration Technologies Corp, Elon Musk's rocket company that went public back in the summer.
Rocket Lab hasn't been as exciting a growth stock to own of late. But while a delay in the launch of its Neutron rocket is definitely not good news, that alone shouldn't be a reason to dump the stock. Here's why this may potentially be a good time to buy Rocket Lab on this weakness.
Image source: Getty Images.
The business has performed incredibly well, and it’s just getting startedRocket Lab has not only generated strong growth in recent quarters, but its future remains highly promising. In its most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, the company's revenue rose by 62% year over year to $234 million. Its backlog was even more impressive, rising by 137% to a little less than $2.4 billion.
The company is also in the midst of acquiring satellite company Iridium Communications, which has a global mobile satellite network, and which would open more opportunities relating to communications.
The launch of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, however, is arguably the most anticipated event for growth investors, as it's capable of handling significantly larger payloads than Electron, and could help the business attain profitability in the future. A successful launch would mark a new wave of opportunities for the business. While a delay is disappointing, it's only a delay. When it comes to rockets, safety has to be the top priority.
RKLB Rocket Lab$52.45+$1.61 (+3.17%)
NASDAQ · As of 12:38 PM ET 10/19/26
Rocket Lab's stock could be worth buying right nowThere's a ton of growth potential for Rocket Lab, and while the market may have reacted negatively to news of Neutron being delayed yet again, that doesn't mean the business is in trouble. At a lower valuation, the stock may be a much more appealing investment option to consider.
There's still risk here as the business isn't profitable, and it could be a long time before that changes, but for long-term investors who are willing to be patient, there are many reasons to remain optimistic about Rocket Lab's future.
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) universe is just getting bigger, with net inflows topping $1 trillion in the first half of the year. Investors have an ever-growing number of options thanks to a flood of new funds entering the market: in the first three quarters of 2026, nearly 2,000 new ETFs launched.
It's understandable that some investors may opt to avoid brand-new ETFs altogether, given that these products are often less popular (and therefore less liquid) and use unproven strategies. However, focusing solely on long-standing funds also risks missing out on potentially rewarding opportunities. The three funds below have launched in recent months and either have seen early momentum or have the potential to thrive in the current market environment.
Get Roundhill Memory ETF alerts:
DRAM: One of the Most Successful ETF Launches of All TimeRoundhill Memory ETF Today
DRAM
Roundhill Memory ETF
$48.47 +2.02 (+4.35%)
As of 10:12 AM Eastern
$26.14▼
$81.34$19.11 billion
The Roundhill Memory ETF BATS: DRAM is among the fastest-growing ETFs of all time when it comes to asset base. In just six months, it ballooned to nearly $23 billion in managed assets, and it enjoys massive trading volume, with a one-month average of more than 28 million shares. The fund is up more than 80% since launching in April 2026.
DRAM's exceptional success is perhaps the best evidence available that new ETFs can thrive, and it likely comes down to the fund's theme and the timing of its launch. The fund emerged as a popular choice amid a serious (and ongoing) shortage of memory hardware products, driven by intense demand from AI buildouts, inflation, and other factors.
The fund has a distinct advantage in that it beat its primary rival, the Tema Memory ETF NYSEARCA: DISK, to market and has trounced its competitor when it comes to returns so far. DISK's poor showing this year, with a decline of about 42% since launch, demonstrates that a thriving industry does not necessarily mean that all ETFs in that space will perform equally well.
DRAM focuses heavily on just two companies—Korea's Samsung Electronics OTCMKTS: SSNLF and SK hynix NASDAQ: SKHY—while DISK takes a somewhat broader approach. The former fund also offers a more compelling expense ratio that, at 0.65%, is 10 basis points lower than its rival's.
NASA: The Anticipation of Future Growth Is a DriverTema Space Innovators ETF Today
NASA
Tema Space Innovators ETF
$20.83 +0.11 (+0.53%)
As of 10:33 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$20.03▼
$42.68$1.00 billion
Though Tema's memory-focused fund has not drawn significant investor attention so far, its space-focused alternative, the Tema Space Innovators ETF NYSEARCA: NASA has been more successful in its first several months of trading. NASA has gathered more than $1.1 billion in managed assets and has accumulated a healthy trading volume as well.
The fund takes an international view of space stocks across 42 holdings, though it has particularly weighty positions in Rocket Lab USA Inc. NASDAQ: RKLB and SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX. Owing to the overall declines across these two businesses' shares this year, NASA has also dropped in that time.
Investors drawn to NASA now may be more interested in the long-term benefits of early investment in the space industry than in current returns. The global space economy is expected to triple in the coming nine years, reaching $1.8 trillion in size. NASA's focus on the industry is suitably broad but also adaptable thanks to the fund's actively managed structure. Though its expense ratio is high at 0.75%, particularly given its history of returns so far, the fund's real appeal may lie in its potential as a vehicle for investors extremely bullish on space as an industry in the years to come.
LOHA: A Unique Approach to the AI ThreatRoundhill HALO ETF TodayLOHA
Roundhill HALO ETF
$25.71 -0.08 (-0.31%)
As of 10:11 AM Eastern
$24.35▼
$27.25$44.17 million
Concerns are mounting across sectors as to how AI may disrupt existing industries and businesses. The question puts investors in a difficult position of having to guess which companies may be best able to adapt to new conditions. The Roundhill HALO ETF BATS: LOHA aims to provide a solution by focusing on companies with heavy assets and low obsolescence (HALO) risk.
The companies in this fund are centered around sizable, physical asset bases, including machinery, mining, energy infrastructure, and the like, as well as regulated frameworks, long-term contracts, and other signals that demand may remain stable despite AI. In total, this means a significant investment in industrials names with additional emphasis on consumer staples and discretionary stocks, materials, and energy.
LOHA has climbed about 2% overall since launching in May, but this comes after a multi-week pullback in the late summer. Managed assets and trading volume remain low, but if the fund is able to demonstrate its success amid AI threats, investors may be willing to accept its 0.35% expense ratio for the stability its portfolio can provide.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Roundhill Memory ETF Right Now?Before you consider Roundhill Memory ETF, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Roundhill Memory ETF wasn't on the list.
While Roundhill Memory ETF currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
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As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) gears up to report its third-quarter 2026 earnings on Tuesday after market close, CEO Elon Musk backed the commercial spaceflight giant ahead of its rivals.
Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB just delivered the news its shareholders least wanted to hear. On Oct. 14, the company announced that the inaugural launch of Neutron, its much-anticipated medium-lift rocket, has been moved from Q4 2026 to 2027. And the market's reaction was brutal. Shares of Rocket Lab fell almost 7% on Oct. 15, closing at $55.25 after dropping as much as 16% intraday.
For a stock that has ridden the promise of Neutron for years, this was a gut punch, and the stock’s technical positioning tells the story.
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Another Neutron Delay Raises the Stakes for Rocket LabRocket Lab Today
$50.84 -4.41 (-7.98%)
As of 10/16/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
$37.57▼
$151.00$102.05
To understand why investors reacted so harshly, you have to understand what Neutron represents. Electron, Rocket Lab's small-lift workhorse, has made the company the clear leader in dedicated small launch. But Neutron would open the door to the far larger, more lucrative medium-lift market, putting Rocket Lab in a position to compete for the biggest commercial and national-security missions. In that regard, Neutron is the single most important driver of the company's long-term growth story, and the entire bull case hinges on it getting to the pad.
The latest delay stems from a manufacturing issue: defects were found in the forward propellant dome of the rocket's first-stage tank. Rocket Lab says it has resolved the problem, but investigating and correcting the manufacturing process pushed the timeline back.
The trouble is, this isn't the first delay. Neutron's debut has been pushed back multiple times since its early 2021 announcement, and each slip chips away at investor patience and raises questions about execution. Compounding the concern, management has previously flagged that cash-flow positivity and overall profitability depend heavily on the timing of that first successful Neutron launch, so every delay pushes the company's path to profitability further out.
The Breakdown Below $60 Adds to Rocket Lab's Technical PressureThe chart makes the disappointment visually clear. The sell-off drove Rocket Lab decisively below the key $60 level, a zone that had been acting as major support. That $60 area marked the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the higher timeframe, and a confirmed break below that neckline is a classic bearish technical signal.
With that level now broken, the stock sits comfortably below all of its key moving averages and, for now, below that major $60 support. The technical structure has shifted from the coiled, base-building setup of recent months to something far more precarious. Until Rocket Lab can reclaim $60 and stabilize, the near-term momentum clearly favors the bears, and the broken neckline leaves the chart vulnerable to further downside.
Wall Street Cuts Targets But Remains Largely BullishRocket Lab Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$102.05
100.73% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 23 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$50.84High Forecast$150.00Average Forecast$102.05Low Forecast$60.00Rocket Lab Stock Forecast Details
The analyst community moved quickly after the news, and reactions were mixed. The biggest move came from KeyCorp, whose analyst cut the price target to $100 from $135 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Even after that sizable cut, the target still implied substantial upside from the stock's closing price.
Others largely held their ground. On the same day, TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $90 target, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its stance with a $122 target, and Roth Capital reaffirmed its Buy rating on the name. Not everyone was bullish, however. Weiss Ratings reiterated its Sell rating, reminding investors that not everyone is convinced the long-term story justifies the valuation, even after the pullback.
The overall takeaway is that analysts have largely maintained their positive ratings, even as some have substantially reduced their price targets. Still, the lone Sell rating underscores that the delay has given the skeptics fresh ammunition. Across all 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $104.05, still implying significant upside from current levels.
Neutron's Success Remains Rocket Lab's Biggest TestThe Neutron delay is a genuine setback, and the market was right to take it seriously. A repeatedly delayed catalyst, a broken technical level, and a further delayed path to profitability are not things investors can simply shrug off. Yet the longer-term picture is more nuanced than the one-day plunge suggests. Rocket Lab still boasts a record backlog of $2.36 billion reported in Q2, a thriving Electron business, a shareholder-approved Iridium acquisition that is still pending completion, and an analyst community that, despite trimming targets, remains broadly in its corner.
The company insists Neutron will be a game-changer, and the backlog supports that belief. But after yet another delay, the burden of proof has shifted squarely onto execution. For now, investors are left watching that $60 level and waiting for Rocket Lab to prove the rocket can ultimately fly.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Rocket Lab Right Now?Before you consider Rocket Lab, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Rocket Lab wasn't on the list.
While Rocket Lab currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
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How do you know when a space stock like Rocket Lab (RKLB -7.98%) is on a roll? Here's a hint.
Take a look at just a few of the headlines I've penned about Rocket Lab in 2026:
Just in Time for 2026, Rocket Lab Won Its Biggest Contract Ever (Jan. 4, $816 million to build 18 missile defense satellites for the U.S. Space Force.) Rocket Lab Just Won Its Biggest Contract Ever (March 28, $190 million to launch 20 HASTE suborbital rockets for the Department of Defense.) Rocket Lab Just Signed Its Biggest Contract Ever (May 11, a contract for five Neutron rocket launches and three Electrons.) Rocket Lab Wins One of Its Biggest Contracts Ever (Aug. 18, a $397 million Space Force contract for missile defense satellites.)
Image source: Rocket Lab.
Are my headlines unoriginal? Guilty as charged.
But are they accurate? Yes, because this rocket stock has a commendable habit of doing one "biggest-ever" thing after another, like clockwork! There are still two months to go in 2026, yet Rocket Lab has already notched notable victories four times this year. Depending on the benchmark you use, it's delivered four straight "biggest ever" deals in a row.
And now here's a fifth: Rocket Lab's latest win came on Sept. 30, when it said that Japanese customer Synspective has ordered another 20 rocket launches to more than triple the size of its Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite constellation.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
More rockets, please Rocket Lab confirms that this is its "largest-ever" deal for Electron rocket launches. (At least it is if you don't count the 20 HASTE launches, with HASTE being based on the Electron launch vehicle.) And certainly, Synspective's total order for 47 rocket launches makes that company Rocket Lab's biggest customer.
Rocket Lab declined to disclose the launch price. But assuming the company is holding firm with its most recent advertised price of $8.4 million per launch -- neither raising it in a market starved for launch capacity nor giving Synspective a large volume discount -- then 20 launches should yield $168 million in revenue for Rocket Lab.
Rocket Lab notes that the launches will run from 2028 to 2031, thus averaging about five launches and $42 million annually over those four years. It will also boost the company's total backlog of launches "beyond 100 missions" -- or more than $840 million in future revenue.
RKLB Rocket Lab$50.84-$4.41 (-7.98%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
What's next for Rocket Lab stock? And Rocket Lab's not slowing down. Still to come is the company's first launch of a Neutron reusable rocket, capable of delivering 13 tons of payload to low earth orbit (LEO).
With roughly 40 times the payload capacity of an Electron, and a price tag reported to be just six times that of an Electron launch, Neutron has the potential to transform Rocket Lab's business. A larger rocket will open new markets for Rocket Lab, serving customers needing to put larger satellites into orbit. A higher per-launch price should increase Rocket Lab's total revenue.
At the same time, a lower price per kilogram to LEO should help Rocket Lab break into the market for large satellite launches, winning market share among customers looking for prices below what SpaceX charges for Falcon 9.
What will that mean for the stock?
Not immediate profitability, unfortunately. For one thing, Rocket Lab announced Wednesday that it is postponing Neutron's first launch into 2027. For another, few analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence expect Neutron's arrival to turn Rocket Lab instantly profitable even once it does start launching. After all, Rocket Lab only expects to launch Neutron once in its first year of operation, then three times in its second, and five times in its third -- so it's going to be a slow ramp-up in launch cadence, and Electron will continue to dominate Rocket Lab launches for years.
The good news for investors is that thanks to the pending purchase of Iridium, Rocket Lab will probably turn profitable (and free cash flow positive, too) in 2027 -- with or without Neutron. Once that happens, it will become a whole lot easier to value Rocket Lab based on its profits and decide whether it's a stock worth buying.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
A delayed debut for Rocket Lab‘s (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) next-generation rocket is weighing on space stocks. Rocket Lab stock is down 6% to $51.
Space stocks spent most of the week in the red. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) set the agenda with an $8 billion push into terrestrial wireless, and the fallout reached well past the space sector. Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) took the week’s biggest company-specific hit after pushing its Neutron debut into 2027.
Macro conditions did not help the space sector. Hotter-than-expected September inflation sent Treasury yields higher midweek, and growth names across the group sold off with them. Several beaten-down names bounced Thursday heading into the final session of the week.
TSLA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. SpaceX Buys Its Way Into WirelessSpaceX agreed last week to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio. Neither company disclosed terms, but the Wall Street Journal reported the price at about $8 billion. CEO Elon Musk called the acquisition a “very big deal” on X.
Low-band spectrum travels farther and penetrates buildings better than higher-frequency airwaves. SpaceX said the licenses close a key technical gap for Starlink Mobile to become a major U.S. mobile carrier. The deal still needs Federal Communications Commission approval.
Carrier investors read it as a direct threat with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) all falling on the news.
Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that SpaceX looks set to become a more aggressive spectrum buyer, according to Reuters, though they expect any threat to carriers to build slowly, starting in rural markets.
As of Friday morning, SpaceX shares were down 7.44% over the past week, according to Benzinga Pro market data.
Read Next
Roadster Reveal Revives Merger TalkTesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) unveiled its second-generation Roadster Thursday night at a SpaceX test site in McGregor, Texas.
SpaceX-developed thrusters helped the “flying” car drive upside down along a curved ramp, flip midair and hop over a row of Tesla vehicles. Production is slated for 2028.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event strengthened the case for a Tesla-SpaceX merger, and Barclays has floated a possible deal before Tesla’s annual meeting in early December.
In Friday’s premarket trading, Tesla shares rose 4.79% to $379.80, and SpaceX gained 2.33% to $152.08 after closing Thursday at $148.62.
AST SpaceMobile Sinks to 52-Week LowAmong the space names, AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) felt the SpaceX spectrum news most directly. Then came a downgrade. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter cut the stock to Neutral from Overweight on Tuesday and lowered his price target to $54 from $98.
Potter trimmed his satellite deployment forecast to 18 by the end of 2026, down from 45. He also pushed the expected start of U.S. commercial service to the second half of 2027 from the fourth quarter of 2026. SpaceX sits at the center of his concern, since the company could restrict launch capacity for AST, undercut service pricing or introduce competing devices.
Potter still sees upside beyond 2027. He noted that a more aggressive SpaceX could push mobile operators toward alternative satellite providers.
ASTS stock closed Wednesday down 10.46% at $42.14, a fresh 52-week low, then rebounded 5.51% Thursday to $44.46.
Rocket Lab Pushes Neutron to 2027Rocket Lab confirmed Wednesday that the first Neutron launch will slip into 2027. CEO Peter Beck warned in August that the window for a 2026 debut was narrowing, so few were surprised by the timing. The cause drew more attention.
Inspections turned up tiny air pockets between carbon fiber layers in the rocket’s forward propellant dome, defects capable of weakening the structure. The flaw appeared after Rocket Lab changed its manufacturing process and thickened parts of the dome to add strength.
Shares closed Wednesday down 7.85% at $59.18 and fell another 6.64% Thursday to $55.25. The stock edged up 0.71% to $55.64 in Friday premarket trading.
Higher Yields Weigh on Planet LabsPlanet Labs PBC.’s (NYSE:PL) Sinergise subsidiary won a spot in a 12-month European Space Agency-backed pilot in Slovenia focused on automating disaster response on Thursday, but interest rates mattered more. September inflation came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast, and traders raised bets on another Federal Reserve hike.
Growth stocks across the board absorbed the hit. Even after Thursday’s rebound, Planet Labs’ stock sits well below its 50-day moving average at $14.27, per Benzinga Pro.
WISeSat.Space Rallies On A Launch DateOne of the sector’s newest listings posted one of its few gains. WISeSat.Space Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:SAIQ) jumped last Friday after confirming an October satellite launch with aerospace partner FOSSA Systems.
The mission advances the company’s Quantum Spatial Orbital Cloud roadmap, which builds post-quantum cryptography, hardware roots of trust and digital identity into space infrastructure.
WISeSat.Space completed its merger with Columbus Acquisition Corp. and began trading under SAIQ on Oct. 2.
Other Names Slide & What Comes NextIntuitive Machines Inc. (NASDAQ:LUNR) and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) released no major news this week and still fell hard. Intuitive Machines closed Wednesday at $11.02, down 9.52%, and Firefly touched a 52-week low of $15.99 on Thursday. Both bounced by the close, with Intuitive Machines up 4.99% at $11.57 and Firefly up 4.76% at $17.83.
Smaller space stocks tend to amplify swings in sentiment around SpaceX. Investors often trade the group as a single theme, and SpaceX also serves as the launch provider for Intuitive Machines’ lunar missions.
SpaceX also has two events on the calendar. Gabriela Castillo Madrid, the company’s head of global government affairs for AI, is scheduled to testify by video at 10 a.m. ET Friday before the New York City Council’s technology committee as part of its AI safety investigation. Another tranche of SpaceX shares unlocks on Oct. 26.
Read Next
Photo: Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Rocket Lab has shed nearly a fifth of its value in one week while sitting on a record backlog and a wall of analyst buy ratings. Something in that contradiction deserves a closer look.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $55.25, while Wall Street’s average price target stands at $105.05. That gap implies roughly 90% upside.
Rocket Lab builds rockets, satellites and spacecraft components. It is also buying its way toward vertical integration through Mynaric, Motiv and a pending deal for Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM). The Street-high target belongs to KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Michael Leshock at $135.00 with an Overweight rating. That target implies about 144% upside.
That matters because the stock sits about 63% below its 52-week high of $151. Either the market is mispricing a growth story or analysts are slow to react.
Neutron Slips to 2027 and Shares Slide Neutron, Rocket Lab’s reusable medium-lift rocket, will miss its 2026 debut. The company pushed the first launch into 2027, and shares fell as much as 14% intraday before closing down 6.64%. The CEO, Peter Beck, blamed manufacturing issues in the first stage’s forward propellant dome, adding, “Possible success isn’t our standard.”
This is the second delay. Neutron had already moved to Q4 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure. Timing drives the cash story: management said the quarter after a successful Neutron test launch marks the free cash flow turning point, followed by 18 to 24 months to reach positive cash flow. Each delay pushes that clock back.
Dilution adds pressure. Rocket Lab raised $1.53B through at-the-market sales in the first half. Q3 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 35% to 37% also sits below Q2’s 41.5%.
KeyBanc Still Defends $135 as Estimates Drift Lower Q2 revenue rose 62% year over year to $234.07M, beating the $230.94M consensus. Backlog jumped 137% to a record $2.36B, and management said it had signed over $1B in new Q3 contracts.
KeyBanc builds its case around three drivers: Neutron as the only practical secondary medium-lift provider for customers seeking alternatives to Falcon 9, a higher-margin space systems business, and a backlog covering NASA, the Space Force and the Space Development Agency (KeyBanc thesis). Customers are already paying for Neutron missions before it flies, including a $397 million Flatellite contract that Neutron will launch, at a $50 to $55 million average selling price.
Iridium is the second catalyst. Iridium stockholders approved the acquisition, and closing is expected in mid-2027. Management said Iridium’s significant free cash flow would materially change Rocket Lab’s cash profile.
Ratings remain strongly positive: four Strong Buy, 12 Buy and four Hold, with no Sells. Estimates are moderating, though. The FY2027 EPS consensus has slipped to -$0.0656 from -$0.0382 90 days ago, with six down revisions against two up in 30 days. Price targets often lag news like the Neutron delay.
Space Stocks Fell Together, Then Rocket Lab Fell Alone The sector declined over the past week, but Thursday’s drop belonged to Rocket Lab alone.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) fell 21.9% on the week and is down 38.79% year to date, though it rose 5.51% on Thursday. Trading at $44.46 versus a $74.28 target, implied upside is about 67%. Its ratings tilt cautious: one Strong Buy, four Buy, seven Hold, one Sell and one Strong Sell. Wall Street sees less upside here than at Rocket Lab.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) dropped 15.42% on the week and is down 26.27% year to date. Trading at $14.55 versus a $31.73 target, implied upside reaches about 118%, with one Strong Buy, six Buy and four Hold.
Planet has the biggest consensus upside among these stocks. Rocket Lab has the most bullish rating mix. Targets for all three are opinions, and they can be wrong.
Rocket Lab Lags the S&P 500 Despite Record Backlog Rocket Lab currently trades at $55.25 against a $105.05 consensus target, roughly 90% implied upside. The stock lost 19.23% over the past week and 20.8% year to date. The S&P 500 has gained 13.18% year to date.
Longer term, shares remain up 331.64% over five years. A beta of 2.938 means swings in both directions will stay large.
Neutron Timing Decides Whether the 144% Call Holds Rocket Lab’s bull case strengthens if Neutron reaches the pad early in 2027 and Iridium closes on schedule, which would turn backlog into revenue and flip the cash story. The thesis weakens if the dome issue triggers another slip, because more delays mean more cash burn and possibly more dilution.
The setup remains carefully constructive. The backlog and customer commitments are real. For now, though, the 144% upside call depends on one rocket that has already delayed twice.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab just pushed its biggest growth engine into 2027 while posting record revenue, leaving investors to decide whether the selloff is a buying opportunity or a warning sign they cannot afford to ignore.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) trades at $55.25 after the company pushed Neutron’s first launch into 2027, a 6.6% decline, though it had been down as much as 16% early on. The slip puts a question mark over the timing of the company’s largest growth engine just as its existing businesses post record results.
Rocket Lab flies the Electron and HASTE rockets, builds satellites and spacecraft components, and is developing Neutron, a reusable medium-lift rocket. Chief Executive Peter Beck cited voids in the carbon-composite forward propellant dome, with replacement and testing now running through Q1 2027. Shares fell 11.86% in the latest session. That extended a six-session losing streak.
A Record $2.36 Billion Backlog Keeps Growing While Neutron Waits
Q2 revenue reached $234.07 million, up 62% year over year, the fourth straight quarter beating revenue estimates. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.5% from 36.9%, and the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $8.8 million from $27.6 million.
Backlog rose 137% to $2.36 billion, driven by an $816 million Space Development Agency award and a role in Golden Dome. Management said it has had “absolutely zero issues” selling full-price Neutrons before a test flight. Cantor kept an Overweight rating with a $122 target.
Every Neutron Slip Pushes Cash Flow Further Out
The CFO tied the cash-flow turning point to Neutron’s first successful launch, followed by 18 to 24 months of fleet investment before standalone cash-flow positivity. Clear Street cut its target to $105 from $129, saying the slip pushes growth and profitability out by three quarters. TD Cowen cut to $90 from $120.
Free cash flow was -$321.8 million in 2025, and the company raised $1.53 billion through stock sales in the first half of 2026. The 2026 EPS estimate of -$0.2682 drew five down revisions against one up revision over 30 days, while the Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) deal adds integration risk through a mid-2027 close.
Space Systems Revenue Buys Time for the Dome Fix
Space Systems revenue hit $189.5 million last quarter, so operations keep growing without Neutron. The selloff also looks company-specific: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) jumped 5.5%. Still, conviction requires proof that the dome fix stays on schedule. Third-quarter revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million is the next test.
Shares Trail the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin
At $55.25, the stock sits below a consensus target of $105.05, meaning roughly 90% upside. Targets offer a single view, and that figure may not fully reflect this week’s cuts. Ratings from 20 analysts break down as:
Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 12
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Rocket Lab is down 20.69% year-to-date, versus a 13.13% gain for the S&P 500. Over one week, the stock lost 18.88% while the index slipped 0.27%. Shares trade below the 200-day average of $81.49. With trailing EPS at -$0.27, there is no meaningful P/E.
Neutron Hardware Tests Will Decide Rocket Lab’s Next Move
At $55.25, Rocket Lab’s path depends on Neutron milestones.
A bullish case needs completed dome requalification by Q1 2027 and fully fueled stage testing on the pad, which Beck called the milestone that “gets your adrenaline running.” A bearish case would follow a further slip beyond early 2027, fresh equity raises, or stalling backlog.
The steep one-week drop came while revenue grew above 60%. Neutron’s timeline started in mid-2025 and has kept moving. Over the next two earnings reports, keep an eye on revenue against guidance, cash burn, Neutron test updates, and Iridium approvals.
The next two quarters will show whether Neutron’s timeline is credible or still drifting.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -6.64%) won't launch its Neutron rocket this year. After the market closed on Oct. 14, the company said the medium-lift rocket's first launch is now expected to happen in 2027. Earlier this year, it had aimed for the fourth quarter of 2026.
Shares trade around $53 as I write, off about 10% from Wednesday's close. That puts the stock about 65% below its May 27 record close of $150.23.
When I covered Neutron's timeline in September, I said I wouldn't be surprised if the first flight slipped into 2027. This slip, though, matters beyond the launch calendar.
Rocket Lab's management has said the company's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) should turn positive in the quarter after Neutron's first successful launch. Put another way, the delay also pushes back that milestone.
Image source: Getty Images.
A manufacturing setbackIn a video shared with the update, CEO Sir Peter Beck said an inspection found voids (tiny air pockets) in the carbon composite of a newly built forward dome for Neutron's first-stage propellant tank. He said the voids didn't necessarily mean the dome would fail in flight, but the company is making another with a reworked manufacturing process.
Notably, Rocket Lab didn't name a new launch date. Beck said the company first has to build and inspect the new dome, then run the whole first stage through pressure and cryogenic tests. All going well, he expects that work to be done within the first quarter of 2027 -- and only after that does Rocket Lab expect to share a new target date.
The fourth-quarter target itself dated only to February, after a first-stage tank burst in a January pressure test.
Electron and space systems keep growingThe business Rocket Lab already runs, though, isn't slowing. Showing how fast it's scaling, Rocket Lab's second-quarter revenue climbed 62% year over year to a record $234 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue had grown 36%, so growth has accelerated sharply this year. Management also forecast third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million, another record.
Most of Rocket Lab's revenue comes from space systems, the segment that makes satellites and spacecraft parts. Its second-quarter revenue surged 94% to $189.5 million, boosted by acquisitions. Launch services revenue fell 4% to $44.6 million due to revenue-recognition timing.
Electron, Rocket Lab's small rocket, is busy, too. It had flown 18 launches this year as of Sept. 26 -- versus 21 in all of 2025. And total backlog hit $2.36 billion at the end of June, more than double its level a year before.
When does Rocket Lab make money?The trouble is that the growth still isn't profitable. Rocket Lab's adjusted EBITDA loss shrank to $8.8 million in the second quarter, from $11.8 million in the first quarter and $27.6 million a year before. But management guided for a bigger loss of $17 million to $23 million in the third quarter. Free cash flow, meanwhile, was negative $110 million in the second quarter.
On the second-quarter earnings call, CFO Adam Spice called Neutron's first successful launch the turning point. Adjusted EBITDA should turn positive the quarter after it, he said, and cash flow would probably turn positive 18 to 24 months after that, as Rocket Lab builds a fleet of Neutron rockets.
With first-stage testing due to last into the first quarter, the EBITDA turn now looks unlikely before the second half of 2027, and positive cash flow might slide toward 2029.
Granted, the pending purchase of Iridium Communications, expected to close in mid-2027, could reset that picture, as Iridium produces a lot of free cash flow. But Rocket Lab sold $1.94 billion of new stock to help fund that deal.
RKLB Rocket Lab$55.25-$3.93 (-6.64%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
At roughly $53 a share, Rocket Lab trades at about 35 times sales (using the $1 billion annual revenue rate its third-quarter guidance points to). It was about 44 times sales at last Friday's close. (That includes September's new shares plus the company's convertible preferred stock, for a market value of about $36 billion now.)
Does a 65% fall make the stock a buy? Not for me.
The operating business keeps setting revenue records, and the stock's much cheaper than it was in May. But at around 35 times sales, investors are arguably still paying for Neutron to fly often and profitably. And the launch that management links to positive adjusted EBITDA no longer has a target date.
Until Rocket Lab puts a new launch date on the calendar, I'd view the stock as too pricey for what it has proven so far.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -6.64%), an end-to-end space launch and spacecraft systems provider, closed at $55.25, down 6.64%. Shares fell after Rocket Lab pushed Neutron's first launch to 2027, and investors are watching development progress and launch timing. Trading volume reached 47.7M shares, coming in about 141% above its three-month average of 19.8M shares. Rocket Lab IPO'd in 2020 and has grown 467% since going public.
How the markets moved todayS&P 500 (^GSPC +0.33%) closed at 7,744, up 0.33%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.08%) ended at 26,713, up 0.08%. Among aerospace and defense peers in space launch, spacecraft, and satellite systems, Redwire (RDW +3.36%) closed at $8.90, up 3.29%, and Intuitive Machines (LUNR +4.99%) closed at $11.57, up 4.99%.
What this means for investorsRocket Lab's medium-lift rocket Neutron has hit another delay today after the company said it found microscopic air voids in the propellant dome of its next-gen rocket. Originally, Neutron was supposed to hit the skies for the first time in 2024, but has been steadily pushed back by engineer and CEO Peter Beck's usual "better safe than sorry" stance toward new launches.
Following this series of delays, today's additional pushback almost felt inevitable. However, management believes it will have a solution in place by early 2027, allowing it to test the new tank then.
That said, I believe Neutron should eventually make its maiden voyage -- maybe in 2027 as management suggests, maybe later -- and if all goes well, a whole new world of larger payload opportunities could be unlocked for Rocket Lab and its customers.
I already picked up some RKLB stock earlier this month and will probably do so again later this month after the stock's further decline. Ultimately, I believe Rocket Lab's long-term investment thesis remains the same, but today is a bit of a bummer, especially with several Neutron launch contracts already in place.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) faced a setback today as it announced a delay in the inaugural launch of its Neutron rocket, now rescheduled for 2027 instead of Q4 2026.
Providing an update on its operations after the market closed yesterday, Rocket Lab (RKLB -7.38%) revealed a new timeline for the first launch of its medium-use reusable rocket, Neutron. Between this and analysts revising their outlooks on the space stock, investors have found sufficient cause to click the sell button.
As of 1:48 p.m. ET, shares of Rocket Lab were down 9.8%, paring back an earlier loss of 16%.
Image source: Getty Images.
2027 is the new launch date for the Neutron rocketRocket Lab has pushed back the timeline for its Neutron rocket, which it now expects to arrive on the launchpad in 2027. Previously, the company had projected that the medium-lift reusable rocket would arrive on the launchpad in the fourth quarter of 2026.
RKLB Rocket Lab$54.81-$4.37 (-7.38%)
NASDAQ · As of 3:17 PM ET 10/15/26
Management attributes the delay to the recent discovery of an issue in the propellant dome manufacturing process, though the company states it has since resolved the issue.
In response to the update, KeyBanc slashed its price target on Rocket Lab to $100 from $135, maintaining an overweight rating. Similarly, Greg Pendy, a Clear Street analyst, lowered the firm's price target to $105 from $129 while maintaining a buy rating.
Based on Rocket Lab shares closing at $59.18 yesterday, the $100 and $105 price targets imply upside of 69% and 77%, respectively.
Should investors shoot for the stars with Rocket Lab stock after today's sell-off?While Rocket Lab's delayed timeline for the Neutron rocket is certainly disappointing -- and it's understandable why some impatient investors would exit their positions -- the dip provides a great buying opportunity for those who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy Rocket Lab stock. Ending the second quarter 2026 with a record backlog of $2.36 billion, Rocket Lab's launch services are in high demand -- a fact that outshines the fact that it will take a little longer than expected to see Neutron's debut launch.
Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) pushed the first flight of its Neutron rocket into 2027 late Wednesday, citing a manufacturing flaw in a carbon-composite propellant dome on the first stage. The company expects to complete testing in the first quarter and set a launch date afterward.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKLB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
U.S. stock futures were mixed this morning, with the Dow futures gaining around 100 points on Thursday.
Shares of Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) fell sharply in pre-market trading after the company officially delayed the first launch of its Neutron rocket until 2027.
The setback followed the discovery of manufacturing defects in a key component of the rocket’s first stage, raising concerns about the timeline for its highly anticipated debut.
Rocket Lab shares dipped 9.5% to $53.62 in pre-market trading.
Here are some other stocks moving lower in pre-market trading.
Zhibao Technology Inc (NASDAQ:ZBAO) shares tumbled 15.7% to $0.86 in pre-market trading after dipping 46% on Wednesday.SK Hynix Inc – ADR (NASDAQ:SKHY) dipped 6.9% to $137.53 in pre-market trading after falling 6% on Wednesday.AXT Inc (NASDAQ:AXTI) fell 6.8% to $57.40 in pre-market trading after declining 5% on Wednesday.Silicom Ltd (NASDAQ:SILC) dropped 6.3% to $43.01 in pre-market trading. Silicom announced that it will release its third quarter results before the opening bell on Thursday, Oct. 29.Cypherpunk Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:CYPH) declined 6.1% to $2.46 in pre-market trading after dropping 8% on Wednesday.CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell5.8% to $61.96 in pre-market trading after dipping over 15% in the previous session. On Wednesday, D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria warned that CoreWeave’s equity could be wiped out if AI spending slows. “The equity value is going to be zero,” he said. Lattice Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:LSCC) fell 5.2% to $109.00 in pre-market trading following around 10% drop on Wednesday.Riskified Ltd (NYSE:RSKD) declined 2.4% to $7.90 in pre-market trading after falling over 4% on Wednesday.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) fell 2% to $421.80 in pre-market trading following third-quarter results.Photo via Shutterstock
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A carbon-composite dome no bigger than the top of a propellant tank just shook billions in market value and pushed Rocket Lab's most important bet to a launch date the company has not yet set.
The launch delay stems from a single carbon-composite dome at the top of Neutron’s first-stage propellant tank. After the close, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) said manufacturing defects in the forward dome are pushing the reusable medium-lift rocket’s first launch to 2027, from a fourth-quarter 2026 target.
Shares dropped 9.94% to $53.30 in after-hours trading as of 7:59 p.m. Eastern. Wall Street’s consensus target of $106.33 implies roughly 99.5% upside from that quote, and analyst targets carry no guarantee.
The stock had already fallen 7.85% to close at $59.18 before the announcement, as hot inflation data pulled the broader market lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.07% in the same session.
Rocket Lab’s Electron small-launch business is performing well, having flown a record 21 launches with 100% success in 2025, and second-quarter revenue rose 62% to $234.07 million.
Yet a $35.42 billion market value rests mostly on a rocket that has never flown and whose debut just slipped again.
Forward Dome Defects Turned a Narrowing Window Into a 2027 Debut
Chief executive Peter Beck said the defects “don’t necessarily mean that the dome would fail on flight,” but “our practice is to proceed only when we believe the system has the appropriate margins.” He added, “Possible success isn’t our standard.”
NASA will build and inspect a new dome. Full first-stage assembly is expected in the first quarter, and a firm launch date will follow. The engineering call is sound, because a failed debut would cost far more than a quarter or two in hardware and in the customer trust Electron built.
It still amounts to a schedule miss. In August Beck said production lined up with “target delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026,” while admitting “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.”
Four Slips Make Every New Neutron Date Harder to Trust
Neutron was unveiled in 2021 with a first flight targeted for 2024. That moved to mid-2025, then 2026, then no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026 after a first-stage tank ruptured in testing in January 2026.
Both recent setbacks hit the same structure. Composite tanks are where launch schedules often get delayed, because defects hide inside layered carbon fiber and a flawed part usually has to be rebuilt.
Each slip also increases the discount investors are likely to apply to the next target, and Rocket Lab has not set a 2027 date, so the market is pricing a debut it cannot yet check.
A 99% Gap to Target Leans Almost Entirely on Neutron
At $53.30, the stock sits 64.7% below the top of its 52-week range of $37.57 to $151.00. It closed the regular session down 15.17% for the year, as the S&P 500 gained 12.87%.
Analysts remain constructive, with ratings split among 4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 4 Hold, plus zero Sell.
The existing business cannot carry that valuation alone. Trailing revenue of $769.1 million puts the stock at 54.63 times sales, and the company posted a $49.3 million GAAP net loss last quarter.
Dated Milestones Would Narrow the Gap While Cash Burn Widens It
A completed first-stage assembly in the first quarter, followed by a firm launch date, would give analysts something concrete to defend. Chief financial officer Adam Spice highlighted the risk, saying cash-flow positivity is “very much a function of the timing of the first successful test launch of Neutron,” and could take “18 to 24 months after that pivot.”
Every slip pushes that timeline out while free cash flow stays negative, at a $110.1 million use in the second quarter. Rocket Lab raised $1.53 billion through at-the-market stock sales in the first half, so funding the delay likely means more dilution.
Beck said, “We believe Neutron is going to be a game changer.” A $2.36 billion backlog supports that view, but the vehicle still has to fly on a schedule Rocket Lab has yet to set.
Rocket Lab’s Valuation Hinges on a Launch Date It Has Yet to Set
Rocket Lab holds $2.13 billion in cash and has cited early Neutron pricing of “a 50 to 55 million dollar ASP.”
A space and defense peer with more booked revenue behind its valuation is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (NASDAQ:KTOS). It trades at $39.33 against a consensus target of $99.57, implying 153.2% upside, backed by 4 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, plus 2 Hold ratings.
Kratos reported second-quarter revenue of $458.8 million, up 30.5%, and guides to $1.750 to $1.810 billion this year. At about 5 times sales, its valuation rests on revenue already booked in rocket systems, satellite ground software, and jet engines.
This conservative view of Rocket Lab would be wrong if first-stage assembly finishes on time and a firm date follows. That would remove the largest uncertainty behind the gap.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab stock price tumbled below a key support level as investors reacted to the new developments about Neutron, its next generation vehicle. RKLB dropped to $54.54, its lowest level since December 2025.
A manufacturing flaw found during production has forced Rocket Lab to push its most ambitious rocket program past a deadline investors were counting on, and now the question is how much longer the cash burn can stretch before something has…
Neutron, the medium-lift reusable rocket at the center of Rocket Lab‘s (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) push into larger launches, is now scheduled to make its first flight in 2027, later than the company had targeted. Rocket Lab stock is at $52.85, down 11% in morning trading, after already declining 8% yesterday to $59.18.
Meanwhile, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is at $148.65, down 2%, a narrower decline for the launch incumbent Neutron was designed to challenge. Similarly, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is at $41.38, down 2%, matching the SpaceX slide.
The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO), a space-sector fund that held Rocket Lab, SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile in its latest portfolio filing, is at $39.12, is sliding 2%. The broad-market fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), meanwhile, is at $767.54, down 0.3%. Those gaps mark the Neutron news as a company-specific repricing.
Composite Dome Flaw Pushes Neutron Into 2027 Rocket Lab said after the close on October 14 that it now expects Neutron’s first launch next year. Chief Executive Officer Peter Beck disclosed that during manufacturing, the company found voids forming within the carbon composite layers of the propellant dome, and according to him the voids would reduce margin and wouldn’t necessarily cause a failure in flight, and the problem is now solved.
Testing is the critical item. Beck said the cryogenic (cryo) and hydrostatic test campaigns won’t finish until Q1 2027. When Rocket Lab last updated the schedule in August, it had targeted delivery of Neutron to the launch pad before the end of this year, with Stage 1 tank production aligned to a Q4 2026 timeline.
Why Neutron Hits Rocket Lab Harder Than Its Rivals Rocket Lab makes its launch revenue today from the Electron small-lift rocket and the HASTE suborbital vehicle, and it also builds satellites and spacecraft components, while SpaceX flies its own launch fleet and AST SpaceMobile builds a satellite network sold through mobile carriers, so Neutron’s schedule affects Rocket Lab’s future revenue alone.
Beck noted the tension on the August 10 call, when production still lined up with a fourth-quarter pad target. “While the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing, the work we’re doing now is about risk trading, balancing the timing of our first launch against how quickly and seamlessly we can scale our tenth launch,” he stated.
The bull case rests on Beck’s statement that the dome problem is solved, which frames the delay as a schedule cost with the core design intact. On the August call, Beck called Neutron demand “not a concern.” He said customers were booking the vehicle at full price before its first flight, including a dedicated Space Force launch and a full rocket for Kepler Communications. At the end of Q2 2026, Rocket Lab’s backlog stood at $2.36 billion, up 137% year over year.
Skeptics note Neutron’s debut has slipped before. Chief Financial Officer Adam Spice said in August that cash-flow improvement is tied to Neutron’s first successful test launch, so a later debut pushes that pivot out while cash burn stays elevated.
Testing Window Sets the Next Move Rocket Lab now faces the question of whether the cryo and hydrostatic campaigns finish inside the Q1 2027 window Beck named. Rocket Lab’s Q3 2026 report will show whether its revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million holds while Neutron spending stays heavy. Beck put the stakes clearly in August: “Obviously the first flight is extremely important, but what about flight 10?”
Electron and HASTE keep Rocket Lab generating revenue in the meantime, and its GHOST globally deployable launch system was already scheduled for a 2027 operational debut from Alaska. A clean finish to the test campaigns would give the bull case its strongest evidence, while another slip would hand the skeptics fresh support, so investors should keep their Rocket Lab share positions sized for either outcome.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab USA Inc (NASDAQ:RKLB), the American space launch and systems company, fell 13% to $51.42 on Thursday after delaying the maiden flight of its Neutron rocket until 2027.
The company had previously targeted an inaugural launch in the fourth quarter of 2026, but manufacturing problems with the rocket’s first-stage propellant tank have forced another change to the timetable.
Reuters reported that the latest setback centres on defects in the forward dome of the tank, a carbon-fibre composite component that helps contain the rocket’s propellant.
The delay threatens to postpone Neutron’s contribution to Rocket Lab’s growth, as the larger reusable rocket is designed to compete for commercial satellite launches and government and defence contracts currently served by established launch providers.
Neutron is a key part of the company’s ambition to move beyond its smaller Electron rocket and compete more directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 in the medium-lift launch market.
The postponement also pushes back the potential revenue opportunity from Neutron while Rocket Lab continues to fund the vehicle’s development and testing.
Wall Street analysts cut their price targets following the revised launch schedule, adding to pressure on the shares.
KeyBanc lowered its target to $100 from $135, while Clear Street reduced its target to $105 from $129, reflecting a more cautious view of the rocket’s development timeline.
The setback follows an earlier testing failure in January, when a first-stage tank ruptured during a pressure test, prompting further manufacturing and qualification work.
Rocket Lab has continued to secure business for its existing launch operations, including a multi-year agreement announced in September for 20 Electron missions for Japanese Earth observation company Synspective.
However, investors must now wait longer for Neutron to demonstrate its capabilities and open a new market for the business, with the first flight expected sometime in 2027.
Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) pushed the first launch of its Neutron rocket into 2027 on Wednesday, confirming a schedule setback after previously warning that a debut this year was becoming less likely.
The announcement leaves investors waiting longer for a rocket central to the company’s expansion into larger launch missions.
"Today we shared an update on Neutron’s development, including adjusting the schedule for flight one to 2027," Rocket Lab wrote on X.
RKLB stock is falling. See the chart and price action here. Warning Becomes a DelayThe update follows a shift in August, when Rocket Lab targeted getting Neutron to the launch pad in the fourth quarter rather than committing to launching during that period. The company had previously targeted an inaugural flight in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Reaching the launch pad and completing a maiden flight are distinct milestones in the development process.
"The window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing," CEO Peter Beck said in August, according to Reuters. Management was increasingly focused on preparing Neutron to support a faster cadence of missions after its debut.
Bigger Missions at StakeNeutron is a reusable, medium-lift rocket designed to help Rocket Lab compete for larger commercial satellite, civil-space and U.S. national-security missions. It also plays a role in the company’s own satellite plans.
Rocket Lab has been spending heavily on Neutron’s development, launch infrastructure and production preparations, while signing customers ahead of its debut. The revised timeline moves that first-flight milestone into next year, extending the wait for a demonstration of the new vehicle’s capabilities.
RKLB Stock Price Activity: Rocket Lab shares were down 8.52% at $54.60 during after-hours trading Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro. The stock had already fallen 7.85% during the regular session to close at $59.18.
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Rocket Lab (RKLB.O) on Wednesday said the inaugural launch of its new, larger Neutron rocket was delayed until next year, sending the space firm's shares down about 6% in extended trading.
Here are more details:
Rocket Lab had previously targeted Neutron's inaugural flight for the fourth quarter of 2026
In August, however, the company appeared to push back on the timeline for Neutron's first flight and said it aimed to get the vehicle to the launch pad in the fourth quarter rather than launching it then
Neutron is a reusable medium-lift rocket central to Rocket Lab's effort to compete for larger commercial satellite, civil-space and US national-security missions
Last month, the company signed a multi-year launch agreement for 20 new missions for its Electron launch vehicle with Tokyo-based Earth observation co Synspective
LONG BEACH, Calif., Oct. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) (“Rocket Lab” or “the Company”), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today shared an update on the Neutron launch vehicle development program, including an adjusted schedule for Neutron's inaugural launch, which is now expected to occur in 2027.
In the latest trading session, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) closed at $64.22, marking a -2.27% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.02%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.35%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.15%.
The company's stock has climbed by 5.05% in the past month, exceeding the Aerospace sector's loss of 6.85% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.05%.
The upcoming earnings release of Rocket Lab Corporation will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -$0.02, reflecting a 300% decrease from the same quarter last year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $255.89 million, indicating a 65% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of -$0.05 per share and a revenue of $945.03 million, demonstrating changes of +81.48% and +57.03%, respectively, from the preceding year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Rocket Lab Corporation. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged. At present, Rocket Lab Corporation boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Aerospace - Defense Equipment industry is part of the Aerospace sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 37, this industry ranks in the top 16% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
The new space race is less about moon landings and more about orbital utility. Choosing between AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -8.54%) and Rocket Lab USA Inc. (RKLB -2.27%) requires deciding which unique infrastructure path holds more promise.
AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate dead zones by connecting mobile phones directly to satellites, while Rocket Lab provides the rockets and components that get hardware into space. Both companies operate in high-growth niches but differ significantly in their business models, financial stability, and technical challenges for retail investors to consider.
The case for AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile focuses on a first-of-its-kind space-based cellular broadband network to connect standard smartphones directly to satellites. The company has already formed definitive commercial agreements with major partners like AT&T Corp. (T +1.60%), Verizon Communications Inc (VZ +1.75%), and Vodafone Corp. (VOD +1.07%). This strategic positioning makes it a prominent player among communication stocks while serving both commercial and government applications.
In FY 2025, revenue reached about $70.9 million, representing massive growth of approximately 1,500% compared to the prior year. Despite this top-line surge, the company reported a net loss of about $341.9 million, resulting in a net margin of negative 480%. This net loss is typical for infrastructure firms investing heavily in their first satellite constellations before reaching full scale.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is 1.2x. This metric compares total debt to shareholder equity, which is the value left for owners after all liabilities are paid. Its current ratio is roughly 16.4x, and free cash flow reached nearly negative $1.1 billion, which represents cash from operations minus capital expenditures.
The case for Rocket Lab USARocket Lab provides end-to-end space solutions, ranging from launch services to satellite design and manufacturing. It serves a wide array of government and commercial customers, including NASA and the U.S. Defense Department. The company is currently working toward acquiring Iridium Communications (IRDM -0.72%), which would significantly expand its presence in on-orbit management and communications while increasing its vertical integration.
In FY 2025, revenue reached close to $602 million, reflecting growth of roughly 38% over the previous fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $198 million, resulting in a net margin of negative 33%. This result marks a significant improvement in net margin compared to the negative 44% reported in FY 2024, showing progress toward reaching a break-even point.
According to its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.1x. Its current ratio is close to 4.1x, indicating the company has ample liquid assets to handle its upcoming bills. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was approximately negative $322 million, which reflects cash generated from business activities minus capital expenditures, with the deficit driven by heavy spending on the Neutron rocket program.
Risk profile comparisonAST SpaceMobile depends heavily on mobile network operators and requires consistent regulatory approvals to access wireless spectrum. Financial risks are significant due to its history of net losses and the high capital requirements of its satellite constellation. The company also faces stiff competition from satellite providers like Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -4.21%) and carries risks of operational problems with its satellite launches.
Rocket Lab faces risks associated with the successful development of its Neutron launch vehicle and maintaining a high launch frequency. It is highly dependent on a few key customers, making its revenue sensitive to government budget and policy changes. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as does competition from large aerospace firms like Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC -0.75%) or Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT -1.54%).
Valuation comparisonRocket Lab appears slightly more expensive on a Forward P/E basis, though it carries a more established revenue base. The P/S ratio, which measures market value relative to sales over the past twelve months, is only available for Rocket Lab.
MetricAST SpaceMobileRocket LabForward P/E215.1x229.5xP/S ration/a49.6xValuation metrics include sourcing from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play, providing full mobile phone compatibility with major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, Rakuten, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc. (nasdag:goog), American Tower (AMT -1.72%), and Telus (TU +2.70%).
By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $168 million in sales, jumping to $582 million the following year. The company is projected to turn its first modest profit in 2029. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.
Rocket Lab, meanwhile, made a huge splash in the market with its proposed $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications this year. The combination promises to make Rocket Lab a space powerhouse by combining its launch technology with the communications spectrum offered by Iridium. In short, Rocket Lab could very well be a serious competitor to SpaceX. Don't overlook Rocket Lab's expertise in sending small payloads into orbit, and it is closing in on the same reusable rocket technology that SpaceX has used to lower its customer prices.
Stand-alone Rocket Lab is seen boosting its revenue by more than one-third this year to about $961 million and narrowing its net loss to about $170 million. The Iridium acquisition is a big pill to swallow, but the combined business should generate $1.4 billion in revenue in 2027 and give investors a modest net profit.
Both these exciting businesses are worth investors' attention. But Rocket Lab's more reasonable -- if still highly priced -- ratios give growth investors a better entry point at this point in time.
