Buy Rocket Lab (RKLB). The stock is down 56% from its peak, RSI has turned up to ~40, and a double-bottom is forming with a neckline around $86.6. Fundamentals back the chart: Q2 revenue +62%, backlog $2.36B, and guidance for Q3 revenue $250–$265M with gross margin 29–31%. Thesis: the market is over-discounting near-term execution risk and will re-rate once the $86.6 level breaks, opening a path toward ~$100.
Key Risk: A guidance miss or margin compression that proves the backlog growth isn’t translating into profitable revenue.
Iridium acquisition leverage
Buy RKLB more aggressively on any dip. The $8B Iridium deal is the catalyst: spectrum (L-band) expands Rocket Lab’s addressable services and creates a credible platform for higher-margin, recurring revenue beyond launches. Second-order setup: as spectrum monetization becomes clearer, analysts will lift long-term revenue and multiple, not just near-term sales—supporting a sustained move above the $86.6 neckline rather than a quick technical bounce.
Key Risk: Regulatory/technical delays or deal economics that make spectrum monetization slower or more expensive than expected.
Rocket Lab stock has slumped in recent months despite the company hitting several major milestones. Shares peaked at $150 in May before tumbling 56% to the current $65. This pullback could be a good buying opportunity, as a double-bottom pattern appears to be forming.
RKLB, one of the top players in the space industry, is doing well as demand for its services continues rising. It has made some major contract announcements recently with organizations like the Space Force, Viasat, and MDA.
Rocket Lab also announced the release of Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex, which is the latest iteration of its next-generation solar cell designed to deliver efficiency and reliability for space applications. Brad Clevenger, the company’s president, said:
“With IMM Apex, customers gain access to a high-efficiency, lightweight, germanium-free product that combines proven reliability with faster production times.
The company also announced strong financial results, which showed that its business continues to grow. Its revenue jumped by 62% in the second quarter to over $234 million.
The revenue surge happened as its backlog soared to over $2.36 billion and management expects the surge to continue in the foreseeable future. For example, it expects its third-quarter revenue to come in between $250 million and $265 million, with its gross margin between 29% and 31%.
READ MORE: Cathie Wood buys $31.6M of Rocket Lab stock: is she betting the selloff went too far?
Analysts also expect that its revenues will come out stronger. The average estimate is that its annual revenue growth will be 59% to $958 million, followed by $1.36 billion next year. This revenue growth will be a 42% annual increase.
Rocket Lab has also delivered on other major milestones, including its $8 billion deal to acquire Iridium. The acquisition will give it highly sought-after spectrum and help unlock new markets. Specifically, Rocket Lab will gain access to the L-band spectrum, which could support additional services, potentially even a Starlink competitor.
Analysts are largely bullish on Rocket Lab shares. Berenberg initiated the coverage with a buy rating and a target of $83, much higher than where it is today. Bank of America’s Ronald Epstein has a target of $110, while Citizens’ Trevor Walsh has a target of $130. Some of the other top analysts with a bullish outlook on the company are from Cantor Fitzgerald, Citigroup, and Craig Hallum.
RKLB stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the RKLB stock has retreated from a high of $150 in May this year to the current $65.87. It has dropped below the strong pivot/reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $75.
The stock has slumped below 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a sign that bears are in control for now. On the positive side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reversed and moved to 40, its highest level since August 24.
The stock is also slowly forming a double-bottom pattern whose neckline is at $86.6, its highest point on August 10. A double-bottom pattern is a common reversal sign in technical analysis.
Therefore, the stock will likely bounce back in the near term, with the next key target being the neckline at $86. A move above that level will point to more gains towards $100.
Rocket Lab sits deep in the red after a rocket test failure spooked investors, yet one top Wall Street analyst just doubled down with a target that implies the stock more than doubles from here. The question is whether the…
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $64.26, well below the Wall Street average price target of $111, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%.
Rocket Lab is a vertically integrated space company running the small-lift Electron rocket, the HASTE hypersonic testbed, an in-development medium-lift Neutron rocket, and a fast-growing space systems arm that builds satellites, components, and propulsion. Management has also announced a deal to acquire Iridium Communications to become a self-launching, integrated space and communications player.
Wall Street pays attention because Rocket Lab is one of the few pure-play alternatives to SpaceX with real government backlog. The gap between the stock and the average target has widened just as the company closes a landmark acquisition and pushes its biggest rocket toward the pad.
Neutron Slip and Dilution Deflated the Rally The primary catalyst was a Stage 1 tank test failure that pushed Neutron’s debut to Q4 2026, with management now saying the year-end launch window is narrowing. That single delay reset the timeline investors had been paying a premium for.
Shares are down 14.11% over the past month and sit roughly 57% below the 52-week high of $151. The S&P 500 was essentially flat over the same month at 0.05%, pointing to company-specific weakness.
Q2 revenue of $234.07 million grew 62% year over year and beat consensus, but GAAP EPS of -0.08 missed expectations after $8.58 million in acquisition-related costs. Add in $1.53 billion raised through an at-the-market equity program in the first half and dilution concerns intensified.
Why Stifel Still Sees a Double Analysts are staying with the story because the backlog drives the thesis. Rocket Lab ended Q2 with a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year, and management flagged more than $1 billion in new contracts signed already in Q3.
Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen carries the Street-high target of $150, which implies the stock more than doubles. His bull thesis rests on three pillars: Neutron commercialization expanding Rocket Lab into mega-constellation and defense payloads, an explosion in higher-margin Space Systems revenue, and continued Space Force and SDA wins as a reliable non-SpaceX prime. Treat these targets as one data point among many.
The defense pipeline backs him up. Rocket Lab has already booked the $397 million Flatellite contract for the Space Force SB-AMTI program, the $816 million SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 award, and work on the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon. The FY2027 Department of War request allocates $71.2 billion to the U.S. Space Force, a growth vector for space primes.
Coverage is heavily positive. Of 18 analysts, 3 rate the stock Strong Buy, 11 Buy, and 4 Hold, with none at Sell. The event everyone is watching is Neutron’s first flight, which management said would flip standalone free cash flow positive within a subsequent 18 to 24 month window.
Space Peers Sold Off in Unison Every peer here is trading well below its consensus target, putting RKLB in line with the group.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades near $62.31 against a $79.61 average target, roughly 28% upside. Shares are down 13.39% over the past month after a rough Q2 miss. Coverage skews cautious with 4 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells, the tamest posture in this group.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $14.81 versus a $29.50 target, roughly 99% implied upside. Seven of nine analysts rate it Buy after the Lanteris acquisition transformed it into a scaled space prime.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) trades at $18.12 against a $35.36 target, about 95% upside, and is down 24.28% in the past month despite a Q2 beat. Coverage skews Buy at 7, with 3 Hold and 1 Sell.
BlackSky Technology (NYSE:BKSY) is the group’s worst monthly performer at -29.7%, trading at $20.50 versus a $38.42 target, about 87% upside. All six covering analysts rate it Buy or Hold.
The largest analyst-implied upside sits with LUNR near 99%. Rocket Lab’s roughly 73% to consensus (and 133% to Stifel’s Street-high) puts it mid-pack, but with by far the largest market cap, deepest backlog, and lowest execution binary of the group.
Backlog Doing the Heavy Lifting Rocket Lab currently trades at $64.26 against an average target of $111 from 18 analysts, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%. Stifel’s Street-high of $150 implies the stock more than doubles.
Over the last month RKLB is down 14.11% while the S&P 500 was flat at 0.05%. Year to date, RKLB is off 7.88% versus the S&P 500’s 12.94% gain. On a one-year view the stock is still up 49.48%.
Forward estimates support the trajectory: revenue of $958 million for FY2026 rising to $1.36 billion for FY2027, though both years carry negative average EPS estimates.
Neutron Execution Is the Real Catalyst The bull case tightens if Neutron reaches the pad in Q4 2026 and the first flight succeeds cleanly. That single event unlocks the Iridium acquisition rationale, converts the $2.36 billion backlog faster, and gives the Stifel bull case runway. Add Golden Dome flow and additional SDA tranches, and the path to $111 (let alone $150) becomes credible.
The thesis breaks if the Neutron slip becomes a slip-and-slip. Another tank failure, an integration stumble on Iridium, or continued ATM dilution would break the thesis fast. The stock still trades at more than 50x sales, so patience is not free (riding a story stock at that multiple is workable if you plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor’s handbook).
The setup skews cautiously constructive. The backlog, defense wins, and analyst posture all point up, but Neutron on the pad is the milestone worth waiting for before conviction builds.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
A presidential caption declaring the Moon American property changes no treaty, but it may be reshuffling billions in defense contracts toward a handful of space companies already sitting on record backlogs.
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President Donald Trump posted a photograph of the Moon to Truth Social this week with an American flag and the caption “The Moon is ours”. Whether trolling, doctrine, or both, it lands at a moment when Washington is pouring real money into space. The Fiscal Year 2027 budget request assigns $71.2 billion to the U.S. Space Force, a $39.4 billion jump over FY 2026, and $17.9 billion for the Golden Dome missile defense program. However, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty forbids nations from claiming celestial bodies, so a caption changes no law. It can move procurement schedules, and that is what matters to shareholders.
Golden Dome Is Reshuffling the Sector Backlogs across publicly traded space contractors are hitting records this year, driven by missile defense constellations and the Artemis lunar program. Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, and Redwire are each turning national security demand into contract wins large enough to reprice their equity. Here are five names positioned for a lunar push.
Five Space Stocks to Watch Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT | LMT Price Prediction) is the incumbent. In late June, the Missile Defense Agency awarded it a $35 billion seven-year contract to quadruple THAAD interceptor production, and the Space Force picked it to build Golden Dome space-based interceptor prototypes with a 2028 demonstration target. Its Orion capsule carried the Artemis II crew farther from Earth than any prior mission. Backlog hit $230 billion. Shares trade near $530.50, up 11.68% year to date.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is the merchant launcher gunning for tier-one status. Q2 revenue rose 62% to $234 million, backlog reached $2.36 billion, and the Space Force signed a $266 million Haste contract for missile defense launches out of Kodiak, Alaska. Chief Executive Peter Beck said the pending Iridium acquisition positions Rocket Lab to “become a self-launching, tier-1 space power.” Neutron is targeted to reach the pad in Q4 2026. Shares are up 50.68% over the past year.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) is the closest thing to a pure-play on Moon return. Q2 revenue quadrupled to $206.17 million, and Chief Executive Steve Altemus said national security expanded from 3% to 30% of quarterly revenue behind an 18-satellite Golden Dome AMDT-3 award and NASA lunar reconnaissance contracts. Backlog stands at $1.76 billion. Management guided full-year 2026 revenue to $900 million to $1 billion.
Redwire (NYSE:RDW) supplies components and defense tech. Q2 revenue jumped 89.6% to $117.07 million with a book-to-bill of 1.42. Its rollout solar arrays will power NASA’s Space Reactor 1 Freedom Mars mission, and it landed a slot on Space Systems Command’s $981 million NIGHTSTAR IDIQ. Shares are up 39.47% year to date.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) rounds out the list as the SpaceX-linked vehicle investors use for exposure to Elon Musk’s launch and Starlink empire. Q2 revenue reached $7.81 billion, Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0 million, and Space Force Starshield contracts topped $6 billion. Musk told analysts SpaceX wants to “put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.”
What to Watch Next The signal is procurement pace, not press posts. Three items over the next two quarters: NASA’s next CLPS task-order awards, where Intuitive Machines is competing for four; Rocket Lab’s first Neutron static fire at Launch Complex 3; and the Missile Defense Agency’s follow-on Golden Dome tranches. If lunar rhetoric translates into accelerated obligations, backlogs already at records could stretch further. If it stays a Truth Social flourish, valuations that assume flawless execution get tested.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Pivotal Research just slapped a price target on SpaceX that towers above where shares currently trade, and the space complex is rallying in response, but a looming supply risk could complicate the bull case before it plays out.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) drew fresh Wall Street coverage Tuesday morning, and the initiation is sending shares of the newly public rocket and satellite operator higher alongside a broad bid across the space complex. Pivotal Research Group launched coverage with a Buy rating and a target that sits well above where the shares trade, giving investors a rare institutional data point on a name that only began trading this year. SpaceX’s peers are joining the move, though the size of their gains varies enough to suggest more than one factor is at work.
SpaceX stock is up 4% to $153.46 in Tuesday afternoon trading, extending a 42% run over the past month. Meanwhile, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) stock is climbing 5% to $15.61, outpacing SpaceX on the day. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares are rising 3% to $66.24, riding the same tailwind. For a read on the space sector, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 1% to $44.24.
Pivotal Research Launches SPCX Stock at $220 Jeffrey Wlodarczak at Pivotal Research Group initiated SpaceX stock with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, a level that sits well above the current quote. The initiation anchors a public bull case to demand across SpaceX’s AI compute, Starlink connectivity, and launch businesses. SpaceX reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, and its AI segment revenue climbed 247% year over year (YoY) to $2.56 billion.
The bear-case counterweight has to do with share supply. SpaceX only recently completed its initial public offering, and lock-up expiration schedules for insider and pre-IPO holders remain the key overhang traders are trying to size. That timing isn’t publicly established here, which leaves the risk genuinely unresolved rather than settled by a single research note. Retail traders may need to weigh a Buy rating and a target well above the current quote against the prospect of additional supply reaching the market later.
Peers Move on a Broader Space Bid Peer strength points to a broader theme across space names. Intuitive Machines stock is outpacing SpaceX stock today, which suggests the space complex is broadly bid rather than one research note doing all the work. Intuitive Machines stock is down 4% year to date (YTD) despite the rally, and its $1.76 billion backlog and reaffirmed $900 million to $1 billion 2026 revenue guidance frame a national security pipeline anchored by an 18-spacecraft Golden Dome award.
Rocket Lab stock is down 5% YTD, a reminder that the smaller launch pure play has lagged the rally that has lifted SpaceX and Intuitive Machines. However, Rocket Lab’s $2.36 billion backlog and Q4 2026 Neutron launch pad delivery target keep its own catalyst path intact. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck’s team has also closed component and manufacturing acquisitions this year, broadening the company’s space systems base beyond launch revenue.
What to Watch The Pivotal Research initiation gives SpaceX stock bulls a public target to point to, but the lock-up question and share supply remain the swing factor for the stock. Investors can watch for additional sell-side firms initiating coverage of SpaceX, since a second or third Buy rating would validate the setup independent of one voice.
Shareholders may want to keep an eye on whether the space complex holds its bid if the SpaceX initiation trade cools. Position sizes in SPCX stock should reflect the volatility that has come with SpaceX’s short trading history and its unresolved insider supply picture.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
SummaryRocket Lab is upgraded to a bullish rating after a 40%+ stock pullback and strengthened fundamentals.The company delivered record Q2 revenue of $234.07M, up 62% YoY. A robust backlog shows demand remains solid.The Iridium acquisition expands RKLB's full-stack space infrastructure strategy and opens new satellite communications opportunities.Valuation has contracted to a forward P/S of 40, creating a favorable risk/reward setup despite near-term Neutron launch delays. J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Introduction In early June, just before the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, I provided an update for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB). It was shown that they were well positioned with their full-stack space infrastructure solutions and that demand
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Analyst's family has a beneficial long position in the shares of SPCX.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
LONG BEACH, Calif., Sept. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced the production release of Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex, the latest iteration of its next-generation solar cell designed to deliver exceptional efficiency and reliability for space applications. IMM Apex boasts a Beginning of Life solar conversion efficiency of 31.5% and 40% lower cell mass, giving it best-in-class specific power (watts per kilogram) while maintaining excellent radiation hardness and performance over temperature.
IMM Apex is free of the germanium substrates used for conventional, multi-junction solar cells produced for the last three decades. By eliminating reliance on this critical mineral, IMM Apex mitigates rising costs and supply chain constraints currently facing the space power industry.
Crucially, IMM Apex is a mechanical and electrical drop-in replacement for heritage solar cell products on germanium, meaning customers can integrate it into existing systems without major investments to re-tool for new cell technology.
IMM Apex builds on the proven success of Rocket Lab’s IMM cell technology, which powered NASA’s Ingenuity Mars Helicopter during its historic mission and has been powering satellites on orbit for more than a decade.
In addition to being free from germanium supply constraints, optimized manufacturing processes and targeted capital investments have enabled efficient manufacturing in multi-100-kilowatt volumes to meet growing demand.
“Rocket Lab is excited to bring this cutting-edge solar solution to market. IMM Apex delivers exceptional performance while addressing real-world challenges like rising material costs and supply chain constraints,” said Brad Clevenger, President of Rocket Lab USA. “With IMM Apex, customers gain access to a high-efficiency, lightweight, germanium-free product that combines proven reliability with faster production times. IMM Apex is designed to more cost-effectively power the most ambitious missions without compromising performance.”
IMM technology has undergone more than a decade of rigorous testing and qualification, ensuring its readiness for a wide range of customer needs and mission requirements. IMM Apex is available now, with ongoing advancements to support future applications.
IMM Apex adds to Rocket Lab’s long history of delivering reliable, high-efficiency solar solutions for critical missions. The company has provided space-grade solar technology to critical civil, national security and commercial space programs including the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA’s Artemis lunar explorations, and other interplanetary science missions. More than 1,100 satellites on orbit are powered by Rocket Lab solar products.
More information about Rocket Lab’s Space Solar solutions is available here.
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab is a leading space company that provides launch services, spacecraft, payloads and satellite components serving commercial, government, and national security markets. Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is the world’s most frequently launched orbital small rocket; its HASTE rocket provides hypersonic test launch capability for the U.S. government and allied nations; and its Neutron launch vehicle in development will unlock medium launch for constellation deployment, national security and exploration missions. Rocket Lab’s spacecraft and satellite components have enabled more than 1,700 missions spanning commercial, defense and national security missions including GPS, constellations, and exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and Venus. Rocket Lab is a publicly listed company on the Nasdaq stock exchange (RKLB). Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, and statements regarding our satellite capabilities, manufacturing scale, and constellation support are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/f82e86ee-aef3-4cfb-bb0b-118b5ca41bea
Rocket Lab Headquarters Rocket Lab Introduces High-Efficiency Solar Cell to Reduce Reliance on Supply-Constrained Critical M...
Management is focusing its efforts on bringing the Neutron to a launchpad by the fourth quarter of this year.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Sept. 4, 2026. The video was published on Sept. 6, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
When Rocket Lab (RKLB +2.50%) updated investors on its Neutron rocket last month, the target it offered wasn't a launch. It was a delivery.
Production of the rocket's first-stage tank, the company said in its Aug. 10 second-quarter update, is "aligned with the target delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026." A launch date doesn't exist yet.
That distinction matters for a growth stock priced the way this one is. Shares trade in the mid-$60s as of this writing, 57% below their 52-week high of $151.
Even after that slide, the space company carries a valuation of about $38 billion (roughly 50 times its trailing-12-month revenue).
Much of what's in the price is Neutron, the bigger, reusable rocket built to compete with SpaceX for heavier launches.
Is the stock a buy before that rocket leaves the ground?
Image source: Getty Images.
Delivering a rocket to a launch pad isn't the same as launching one. Management acknowledged in the update that the window for a launch before year-end is narrowing, and that the timing depends on first-stage qualification and other critical tests later this year.
The schedule has moved before, too. Mid-year was the target until a first-stage tank ruptured during pressure testing in January, which pushed the debut to late 2026. I wouldn't be surprised if the first flight slips into 2027.
The wait isn't trivial. After all, sizable contracts ride on this rocket. In August, Rocket Lab won a $397 million U.S. Space Force contract to build, launch, and operate satellites for an airborne-threat-tracking program -- and those satellites are slated to fly on Neutron.
Even a successful debut wouldn't flip the economics right away. Chief financial officer Adam Spice said on the company's second-quarter earnings call that he expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in the quarter after Neutron's first successful test launch. And free cash flow, he said, would probably turn positive 18 to 24 months after that, as Rocket Lab invests in a fleet of Neutron boosters.
In other words, a buyer today is waiting on a date that doesn't exist to start a clock that could run well into 2028.
Records without NeutronMeanwhile, the business Rocket Lab already operates keeps performing. Second-quarter revenue rose 62% year over year to a record $234 million, up from $144 million a year earlier. Management guided for third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million -- another record and another step up. And last week, the company's small Electron rocket flew its 94th mission, Rocket Lab's 15th launch of 2026.
The mix behind those impressive numbers is worth noting, though. Launch services generated $44.6 million of the quarter's revenue (less than a fifth of the total), while space systems, the segment that builds satellites and components, contributed $189.5 million. In short, the company investors can buy today is mostly a satellite manufacturer with a busy small rocket attached.
The losses haven't gone away, either. Rocket Lab's adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $8.8 million in the second quarter from $27.6 million a year earlier, but guidance calls for a loss of $17 million to $23 million in the third quarter. As Spice's timeline suggests, the swing to sustained profits still waits on Neutron.
Can Rocket Lab afford the wait?Easily -- and that's arguably the strongest part of the story. After raising about $1.5 billion through at-the-market stock sales in the first half, Rocket Lab ended June with about $2.4 billion of cash and marketable securities.
Operations consumed $134 million of cash over those six months. Even if that pace doubled, the company could fund years of Neutron development.
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However, it's worth knowing where the money came from: shareholders. The cash that makes the delays affordable was raised by selling new stock.
And more claims on the balance sheet are coming. Rocket Lab's pending acquisition of satellite operator Iridium Communications, expected to close in mid-2027, includes $27 per share in cash. To be fair, Iridium generates substantial recurring cash flow, which would help the picture once the deal closes.
So, is Rocket Lab stock a buy with Neutron still on the ground? Not yet, in my view.
The operating business is executing, and the balance sheet can outlast the delays. But the milestone the price leans on isn't on the calendar, and even in the best case, the payoff behind it sits years out. If Neutron reaches the pad in the fourth quarter and a firm launch date follows, I'd take another look.
ARK's latest trades show a shift toward space and financial technology while trimming several of its high-profile AI holdings. Summary
ARK bought about $45 million of Rocket Lab
Cathie Wood is changing where she wants her growth-stock exposure. ARK Invest spent the past week adding heavily to Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB, Financials) and Block while cutting several familiar technology and AI positions.
Rocket Lab was the biggest move. ARK bought more than 705,000 shares worth roughly $45 million, adding to the position after the space stock pulled sharply back from its May high.
The firm also bought about $37 million of Block shares. Money was moving out elsewhere.
ARK sold roughly $25 million of Palantir, $23.6 million of Shopify and another $8.1 million of AMD. Tempus AI was also cut by about $27.7 million.
That does not necessarily mean Wood has turned bearish on AI. It looks more like a reshuffling of where she sees the better opportunity.
Palantir and several AI-related names have already had huge runs. Rocket Lab, meanwhile, has fallen sharply from its 2026 peak while approaching important milestones for its Neutron rocket.
For ARK investors, the message from the week is fairly clear: Wood is still betting on disruption, but she is spreading that bet beyond the biggest AI winners.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Rocket Lab Lands a $45 Million Ark Invest Boost as Cathie Wood Adds 705,000 Shares Summary
Ark Invest bought more than 705,000 Rocket Lab shares worth roughly $45 million, making the space company its biggest disclosed stock addition by value last week
Ark Invest added more than 705,000 shares of Rocket Lab RKLB valued at roughly $45 million last week, increasing its exposure to the space company as Cathie Wood's firm continued reallocating capital toward high-growth themes.
The Rocket Lab purchase was the biggest disclosed stock addition by value in Ark's weekly trading activity. The move came alongside purchases in financial technology, biotechnology and crypto-related assets, showing the firm was shifting funds toward several areas it views as long-term growth opportunities.
Ark's decision puts Rocket Lab among the portfolio's more notable fresh bets. The firm's space allocation has drawn attention as investors look for companies positioned around commercial launch services and the broader space economy.
For Rocket Lab, the trade may provide a boost in investor visibility, particularly among growth-oriented market participants. However, Ark's purchase alone does not establish a change in the company's fundamentals or guarantee a near-term move in the stock. Investors may therefore treat the transaction as a portfolio-allocation signal rather than a fundamental endorsement of the business.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Key Takeaways RKLB secures two SDN-B orders to support secure optical communications for military operations.RKLB will demonstrate satellite-to-ground interoperability using its Photon spacecraft in orbit.RKLB's SDN-B work spans satellite development, communications technologies and mission operations. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) is expanding its role in military space communications after being selected for the U.S. Space Force’s Space Data Network (“SDN”) Consortium. In August 2026, the company announced two delivery orders worth a combined $12 million to support the Space Data Network Backbone (“SDN-B”), which is being developed as a secure, high-speed satellite communication network for military operations.
The contracts will support the design, testing and demonstration of secure optical communications in space, including interoperability between satellites and ground systems. Rocket Lab will use a company-built Photon spacecraft equipped with optical and network capabilities for an in-orbit demonstration, with an operational demonstration expected in 2027.
The SDN-B work gives Rocket Lab an opportunity to participate in a broader defense communications architecture rather than focusing solely on individual spacecraft or launch missions. The company’s involvement spans satellite development, communications technologies and mission operations, providing a foundation for supporting the different elements required for space-based connectivity.
The initial $12 million award is relatively small, but the strategic opportunity could be more important if Rocket Lab successfully demonstrates the required technology and interoperability. Successful execution could help the company pursue additional work tied to military satellite communications as the U.S. Space Force continues developing resilient and secure networks for global operations.
Companies Advancing Satellite CommunicationsThe growing need for secure and resilient satellite communications is creating opportunities for companies developing connectivity infrastructure for government and commercial users. Viasat Inc. (VSAT - Free Report) and Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM - Free Report) are also active in the satellite communication market.
Viasat provides satellite communications and connectivity solutions for government and commercial customers, with capabilities spanning satellite networks and secure communications.
Iridium Communications operates a global satellite communication network, providing voice and data services to government, commercial and other specialized users.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share suggests year-over-year growth of 81.48% and 240%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB Stock Is Trading at a PremiumRocket Lab is trading at a premium relative to the industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 32.05X compared with the industry average of 7.55X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB Stock Price PerformanceOver the past year, RKLB shares have rallied 34.6% against the industry’s 0.1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB’s Zacks RankRocket Lab currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It's been nearly five years since Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.70%), announced plans to build a Neutron rocketship in 2020. The 43-meter-tall craft, incorporating an expendable second stage within a reusable first stage, can carry 13 tons of cargo to Low Earth Orbit -- 43 times the payload of Rocket Lab's current Electron rocket.
Assuming, that is to say, it ever launches.
Rocket Lab, you see, has been promising to launch Neutron for years -- first positing a 2024 launch date, then "mid-2025," followed by late 2025, Q1 2026, and most recently late 2026. Last month, the deadline slipped yet again when Beck told investors on a conference call he was targeting "delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026."
That sounds like a reiteration of the late 2026 goal. Unfortunately, delivering the rocket to the pad is just the first step. Next follows a series of pre-launch tests preceding the actual launch.
And as a result, it's entirely possible we won't see Neutron take off before 2027.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
"An-ti-ci-pa-tion, anticipa-yay-shun! [Rocket Lab's] making us wait" As you can imagine, investors in Rocket Lab stock are getting just a wee bit impatient with all the delays. And Rocket Lab stock is down 24% in the past two weeks, or nearly $20 per share.
The distress is understandable. (Still, one imagines they'd be even more upset if Rocket Lab moved too fast and launched a rocket that blew up!) Bearing that in mind, here's another date that Rocket Lab investors might want to focus on instead, just in case Rocket Lab has to delay launch yet again:
June 30, 2027.
What happens on June 30, 2027? Three months ago, Rocket Lab announced it would acquire iconic satellite communications company Iridium Communications (IRDM +0.55%) in an $8 billion deal slated to close in "mid-2027."
Granted, that deadline's a bit fuzzy. But June 30, 2027, is about as close to mid-2027 as one can get, so that's the date I'm hoping we will see Iridium officially become part of Rocket Lab. And why is this important?
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Why Iridium is important to Rocket Lab Neutron is great and all, don't get me wrong. I'm personally looking forward to seeing it fly -- maybe even in person!
But as an investor, I realize that even the $50 million in revenue Neutron will bring to Rocket Lab with each flight, with 44% gross margins, pales in significance to the $884 million in annual revenue -- with 72% gross profit margins, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence -- that Rocket Lab will receive once it acquires Iridium.
Analysts forecast that in 2027, Iridium will earn more than $135 million in GAAP profit and generate more than $313 million in positive free cash flow. That's enough profit and cash to offset all the losses and cash burn at Rocket Lab, and turn Rocket Lab instantly profitable and free cash flow-positive -- a full year before Wall Street analysts anticipated that would happen.
To me, this makes June 30, 2027, the date to watch. Assuming Rocket Lab can close the deal on time, it'll be a much more attractive investment on that date -- with Neutron or without it.
Adam C. Spice, Chief Financial Officer of Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB +0.70%), sold 140,157 shares on September 2, 2026, as disclosed in a recent SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value~$8.8 millionShares sold140,157Post-transaction shares (total)~1.4 millionPost-transaction shares (directly held)~1.2 millionPost-transaction shares (indirectly held)250,000Post-transaction value~$88.72 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($62.63); post-transaction value based on September 2, 2026 market close ($63.10).
Key questionsWhat prompted this disposition of common stock?
Adam Spice exercised 140,157 stock options at a strike price of $1.09 per share and immediately liquidated the resulting equity at a weighted average price of $62.63. Following this transaction, the CFO maintains ~2.4 million derivative securities, including both vested and unvested awards.How does this disposition affect the executive's total exposure to the company?
The transaction involved shares equal to 10% of the CFO's equity stake held before the filing. After completing the sale, the executive retains a total position of ~1.4 million shares, which consists of ~1.2 million shares held directly and ~250,000 shares held indirectly through a trust.What was the market context on the date of execution?
Shares were sold at a weighted average price of $62.63, representing a 0.74% discount to the market close of $63.10 on September 2, 2026. As of that transaction date, the aerospace firm had delivered a one-year return of 28%.What is the current valuation of the remaining equity stake?
As of the September 4, 2026 market close, the stock was priced at $64.26 per share. This places the market value of the CFO's ~1.4 million shares at approximately $90.3 million, excluding the value of any outstanding derivative securities.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-09-04)$64.26Market Capitalization$37.2 billionRevenue (TTM)$769.1 millionNet Income (TTM)-$165.5 millionCompany SnapshotRocket Lab provides comprehensive space-related services and hardware, including orbital launch capabilities, spacecraft engineering and construction, spacecraft component manufacturing, and on-orbit constellation management services.The company generates revenue through a diversified business model encompassing commercial launch services, spacecraft manufacturing and sales, and managed satellite constellation operations for institutional and commercial clients.Rocket Lab serves the space and defense industries, with primary customers including government agencies, defense contractors, and commercial satellite operators requiring reliable access to space and orbital infrastructure.Rocket Lab Corporation is a leading aerospace and defense enterprise headquartered in Long Beach, California. The company has established itself as a critical infrastructure provider in the commercial space sector, delivering end-to-end solutions from launch services through on-orbit operations. With trailing 12-month revenue of $769.1 million, Rocket Lab maintains a strong market position while executing its growth strategy in the rapidly expanding space economy.
What this transaction means for investorsThe September 2 sale of Rocket Lab shares by CFO Adam Spice involved the exercise of 140,157 stock options and immediate liquidation of the resulting shares. This is a tactic frequently used among insiders, and in Spice's case, it means his equity stake before this transaction remains intact post-sale.
In addition, the disposal was executed as part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on June 3, 2026, reflecting routine portfolio management. A Rule 10b5-1 plan allows insiders to sell shares at predetermined times to avoid concerns of trading on non-public information.
Consequently, this sale was a non-discretionary transaction. Given Spice retains about 1.4 million total shares post disposition, his substantial equity stake ensures continued alignment with shareholder interests.
Rocket Lab's stock is up 28% over the trailing 12 months through Spice's sale thanks to strong business performance. In the second quarter, sales rose 62% year over year to $234 million. The company exited Q2 with a backlog of over 90 launches, the highest in its history. It is also planning to acquire Iridium, which would give Rocket Lab a constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites.
Robert Izquierdo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.70%), the once-tiny space stock that wants to be Space Exploration Technologies when it grows up, held its IPO (albeit as a special purpose acquisition company) just over five years ago. If you'd put $10,000 into Rocket Lab back then, you'd be sitting on more than $65,000 today -- a total return of more than 560%.
And good for you if you did that! Newer investors, though, may be more interested in knowing what $10,000 invested in Rocket Lab stock now will be worth in another five years.
And that's what I'm going to try to figure out today.
Image created by JesterAI.
The trouble with forecasts Allow me to begin with a disclaimer: No one knows for certain what will happen to Rocket Lab over the next five years. It could explode (in a good way), delivering another 560% return. Or it could explode in a very bad way, for example, if one or more Rocket Lab rockets literally blow up on launch, shaking investor confidence in the space company.
The truth is, anything can happen in half a decade. Bear that in mind as you continue reading.
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What analysts say An inability to know the future has never discouraged Wall Street's best and brightest analysts from trying to predict it. In the case of Rocket Lab, analyst forecasts see Rocket Lab turning profitable for the first time in 2028 and steadily increasing its earnings power to as much as $1.1 billion by 2031.
Rocket Lab might become even more profitable on a cash basis that year, generating positive free cash flow of $1.5 billion -- and that's just to start with.
In June, Rocket Lab announced it would acquire iconic satellite communications company Iridium Communications in an $8 billion deal slated to close in mid-2027. Iridium is already profitable and free cash flow positive. Although a slower grower than Rocket Lab, the company is expected to grow its profits by 13% annually over the next five years.
By 2031, this might result in $190 million in profit and more than $570 million in free cash flow.
How much will Rocket Lab be worth in five years? If the merger happens as planned next year and both companies (now independent) continue to grow as analysts anticipate, by 2031, a combined Rocket Lab-plus-Iridium might conceivably earn $1.3 billion and generate more than $2 billion in free cash flow annually.
How much would this be worth to investors?
That depends largely on the multiple-to-earnings that investors would be willing to pay for a slower-growing Rocket Lab five years from now. Would they pay, for example, the 54x trailing earnings valuation that Iridium alone fetches today?
With analysts forecasting Rocket Lab's earnings to grow by an average of 60% from 2030 to 2035, that seems reasonable to me -- maybe even conservative. And if I'm right, a valuation of $70 billion (or 75% more than Rocket Lab's current $40 billion market capitalization) seems reasonable.
This is only a guess, of course, albeit as educated a guess as I can make. But if I'm right, a $10,000 investment in Rocket Lab could be worth $17,500 in five years.
This summer, we saw the debut of Space Exploration Technologies -- otherwise known as SpaceX -- stock in a massive initial public offering (IPO). We also saw share prices across space-economy stocks collapse after said IPO, with no better example than Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.70%), one of the sector's biggest names in public markets.
Shares of the rocket flight and space services company trade down about 58% from the highs set earlier this year, even though its revenue grew 62% year over year last quarter. A falling share price and a growing business can develop into a great buying opportunity.
Does that mean now is the time to buy the dip on Rocket Lab stock?
Image source: Getty Images.
More Neutron delays There is a lot going on with Rocket Lab's business, but none is more important to its future than a product that doesn't generate any revenue today: its Neutron rocket.
The Neutron is a larger rocket type than its existing workhorse, named the Electron. Larger payloads mean each launch can carry more products into orbit for third parties (mainly satellites), resulting in more revenue per launch. It is similar in size to SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, and the Neutron already has numerous proposed orders from commercial operators and the United States government.
So, what's the problem? Well, originally, the Neutron rocket was planned to debut in 2024. Over the last few years, this first launch date has been consistently pushed back, and most recently, it looks like it won't happen until the beginning of 2027. Without the Neutron performing test flights and eventually carrying commercial payloads, Rocket Lab's launch revenue will remain sub-scale compared to competitor SpaceX.
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Aiming for fully integrated services For those who are taking a long-term view, it may not matter exactly which quarter the Neutron begins flying, only that it eventually starts flying regularly without mishaps, helping Rocket Lab's launch division take a great leap forward.
The Neutron brings together Rocket Lab's comprehensive long-term vision: to be a fully integrated seller of products and services for the space economy. In fact, its space systems segment -- which houses divisions that make items such as satellites, optical lenses, software, and robotics for third parties in space -- generated more revenue last quarter ($189.5 million) than its launch division ($44.6 million).
Once the Neutron is up and running, it should lead to even more contracts and revenue from space systems, because Rocket Lab can then sell its launch service and the sub-components of customer payloads as a bundle.
Even longer-term, Rocket Lab plans to sell its own space-economy services. This is being accelerated with its acquisition of Iridium Communications, which operates a satellite internet constellation. Leveraging its expertise in space systems development, Rocket Lab plans to accelerate Iridium's growth to help it compete more directly with SpaceX's Starlink service.
Data by YCharts.
Time to buy the dip on Rocket Lab? There is a lot to like about the potential growth of Rocket Lab. When you add up Neutron, space systems, and the Iridium acquisition, it wouldn't be shocking to see its trailing revenue of $769 million grow into the billions within a few years.
You might be thinking this makes the stock an easy buy-the-dip candidate. There are a few problems, though. Rocket Lab has never generated a profit, and its gross margins are quite low given the heavy capital intensity of rocket launches and space manufacturing. This needs to be taken into account when valuing shares.
The stock's shares don't look that cheap, either, even after getting cut in half within the last few months. It has a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 48, which implies many years of growth are already priced in. This is 48 times its trailing revenue, let alone any potential earnings power hidden in all of Rocket Lab's upfront investments.
Even if a company has a blue ocean of growth ahead, valuation still matters, which is why investors should not yet buy the dip in Rocket Lab stock.
Q2 revenue reached $234 million, backlog climbed to $2.36 billion, and Space Systems generated 81% of revenue, reinforcing Rocket Lab's infrastructure transition. Neutron targets $50 million to $55 million in pricing without meaningful discounts, making launch cadence more important than simply reaching orbit. Iridium adds over $870 million of recurring revenue, but the $8 billion acquisition introduces leverage, integration, and additional dilution risks.
In the summer of 2025, I took a little road trip -- all the way out to the Virginia coast. There I witnessed firsthand the grand opening of Rocket Lab's (RKLB +0.10%) newest and grandest piece of infrastructure, a towering launch pad from which the first Neutron rocket would (I was assured) make its inaugural voyage in just a few short months.
It's been a year since I made that trip. Neutron still hasn't launched.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
What is Neutron? Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, first announced he would build the Neutron medium-lift vehicle in 2020, envisioning it as a 40-meter-tall, "8-ton class reusable rocket" powered by seven Archimedes engines in its reusable first stage and a single vacuum-optimized Archimedes in its second stage (carried internally by the first stage).
Neutron has since evolved into a 43-meter rocket powered by nine engines in the first stage, capable of lifting a payload of 13 tons (if the rocket is reusable; 15 tons if it is expended). And in a big reveal at the grand opening, Rocket Lab dropped a hint that the new and improved Neutron might even be capable of carrying astronauts to space.
How big a deal is Neutron? Thirteen tons of reusable payload carried within a five-meter payload fairing makes Neutron ideal for launching entire constellations of small satellites into orbit -- aligning perfectly with Rocket Lab's plan to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM +0.66%), which deploys and operates such constellations. This purchase will transform Rocket Lab into a wholly vertically integrated space company that can build and launch and that can deliver satellite services on its own.
Combined with the potential to launch humans as well as satellites into orbit, it opens new markets for Rocket Lab -- crew transfer to the International Space Station or private space stations, for example; missions to the Moon; even space tourism, potentially.
All of this is in addition to simply using Neutron as a commercial launcher for other companies' payloads. At an estimated $50 million launch price and a target cadence of seven launches per year, Neutron could add $350 million a year to Rocket Lab's revenue stream.
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Delayed! At this point, a lot of investors are worried because Neutron hasn't launched yet -- indeed, it doesn't have a firm target date for launch anymore. While there's still hope the rocket might take off before the end of 2027, many pundits speculate that Neutron's inaugural launch may slip into 2027.
How bad would this be for Rocket Lab?
Although it clearly hasn't been great news for Rocket Lab stock lately, in the long term, it won't affect Rocket Lab's business all that much. As Peter Beck has explained, the company plans to launch Neutron only once in its first year of operation (then three times in its second year and five times in its third). At $50 million per launch, therefore, even a full year's delay would subtract only about $50 million from Rocket Lab's forecast revenue.
That's not enough to move the needle or prevent Rocket Lab from becoming profitable in 2027 by virtue of the Iridium merger. Admittedly, if that should fall through as well, there would be more cause for near-term concern. But in and of itself, a few months' delay in Neutron's first launch shouldn't affect Rocket Lab's business much at all.
ARK Invest just loaded up on a rocket company trading at a fraction of SpaceX's valuation, and the timing raises a pointed question about whether the recent selloff is a warning sign or a once-in-a-cycle entry point.
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Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest scooped up 705,102 shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) across two trading sessions, according to TipRanks’ reporting on the firm’s daily fund disclosures. The buying came as the stock extended a losing streak, with shares slipping 5.51% over the past week and trading at $63.57 in Friday’s session. The purchase suggests ARK views the pullback as an entry point into a name it has long positioned as a core space-economy holding, even as it trimmed positions elsewhere in its book, including Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).
A $38 Billion Company Versus a Trillion-Dollar Rival [stock_chart symbol=”RKLB”]
The size gap frames the scale of the bet. SpaceX carried a market capitalization of roughly $1.14 trillion as of September 4, 2026, according to Google Finance. Rocket Lab’s market capitalization stood at roughly $38.04 billion as of the same date. The publicly traded pure-play alternative for space-launch exposure remains a fraction of the private launch giant, whose recent IPO reset investor expectations for the sector. Investors seeking direct SpaceX exposure have gravitated to fund vehicles such as the Destiny Tech100 SpaceX proxy (NASDAQ:SPCX), which has gained 19.48% over the past month.
Why Rocket Lab Is SpaceX’s Closest Public Rival Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket has flown 13 launches this year with 100% mission success, serving the small-satellite market. Its medium-lift Neutron rocket, designed to compete more directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, is targeting delivery to the pad in Q4 2026, though it has not yet flown. Cantor Fitzgerald has characterized Rocket Lab as the premier alternative to SpaceX. The operational gap remains vast: SpaceX said it delivered roughly 2,500 tons a year to orbit via Falcon and accounts for 80 to 90% of total Earth mass to orbit per year.
More Than a Launch Company Space Systems drives the majority of Rocket Lab’s business, outpacing launch. In Q2 2026, Space Systems revenue reached $189.5 million, while Launch Services revenue was $44.6 million. Rocket Lab has stacked acquisitions to widen the moat, closing deals for Mynaric, Motiv, and an announced deal for Iridium Communications. Iridium, if closed, brings a constellation of 66 satellites and more than 2.5 million subscribers, positioning Rocket Lab to build, launch and operate its own constellations. The company posted $234.07 million in Q2 revenue, up 61.99% year over year, with backlog reaching $2.36 billion. Details are available in the company’s Q2 2026 earnings exhibit filed with the SEC.
Recent Decline in Context Rocket Lab is down 14.33% over the past month and 8.53% year to date. The one-year picture looks different: shares are up 46.59%, and up 371.97% over five years. ARK’s buying into the recent weakness fits a pattern of adding to conviction names when short-term sentiment softens. CEO Peter Beck framed the quarter this way: “Q2 was another fantastic quarter for Rocket Lab, highlighted by record results and massive momentum that has continued well after the close.”
What Has to Go Right Management guided Q3 revenue to $250M-$265M, and expects roughly 45.5% of current backlog to convert into revenue within the next twelve months. For the bull case to work, Neutron has to fly, and the backlog has to convert. Beck told analysts that the quarter after Neutron’s first successful test launch would mark the pivot toward positive cash flow, with cash-flow positivity expected 18 to 24 months after that pivot. Wood’s purchase places ARK on that timeline. Keep an eye on the stock as the launch window narrows into year-end.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The commercial space sector is undergoing an institutional re-rating. For years, space companies were viewed through the lens of venture-backed speculation. That narrative is rapidly expiring. Recent capital flows indicate a structural shift toward treating low-Earth orbit as a utility-grade infrastructure layer.
With NASA awarding Blue Origin a firm-fixed-price $700 million contract for a Mars Telecommunications Network, the fundamental thesis is clear. Telecommunications and defense agencies are deploying billions to secure orbital bandwidth.
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Wall Street is adjusting its valuation models accordingly, initiating coverage of pure-play space stocks. For investors, the transition from speculative space ventures to contracted networks offers a compelling setup. Understanding how capital is flowing provides a clear map for evaluating these early-stage infrastructure assets.
NASA Ignites the Institutional LaunchpadThe recent $700 million NASA contract awarded to Blue Origin serves as a macro catalyst for the broader space economy. While Blue Origin remains a private entity, the scale of capital locking into deep-space and orbital communications validates the business models of its publicly traded infrastructure peers.
Institutional research desks are waking up to this reality. Berenberg recently initiated coverage on the space sector with a bullish outlook. The investment bank modeled the global space economy crossing the $500 billion mark in 2025 and accelerating toward around $1 trillion by 2030. This expansion is primarily driven by collapsing launch costs. As the cost to put a payload into orbit plummets, the unit economics of deploying large-scale satellite constellations finally make fundamental sense.
Capital markets recognize that space is no longer just about building rockets. It is about building the infrastructure that those rockets deploy. Much like the terrestrial fiber-optic boom of the late 1990s or the cellular tower build-out of the 2010s, orbital networks are becoming an increasingly vital utility. Telecommunications carriers prefer to outsource extraterrestrial bandwidth to specialized operators rather than spend billions building their own space hardware.
Dialing Up Orbit With AST SpaceMobileThe most immediate beneficiary of this institutional awakening is AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS. AST SpaceMobile recently experienced an intraday jump of roughly 12% following Berenberg's initiation of coverage. The coverage featured a Buy rating and a highly aggressive $92 price target.
AST SpaceMobile Today
$62.13 -0.27 (-0.43%)
As of 09/3/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
$36.08▼
$133.86$86.58
To understand the premium Wall Street is willing to assign to AST SpaceMobile, investors should look at the technological moat the company is building.
AST SpaceMobile is currently the only operator demonstrating true cellular broadband delivery to unmodified standard smartphones.
Instead of requiring consumers to purchase expensive satellite phones or bulky receivers, AST SpaceMobile leverages over 60 partnerships with major mobile network operators.
These agreements grant the company backdoor access to a global subscriber base of about three billion users.
Japan's Radio Regulatory Council recently endorsed a 700 MHz framework for the Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile network, and the FCC granted a 30-day authorization to test 800 MHz connectivity. These steps systematically clear international and domestic regulatory hurdles.
From a purely fundamental perspective, the recent AST SpaceMobile earnings report might scare an uninitiated investor. In the second quarter of 2026, the firm reported an adjusted earnings per share loss of 77 cents, missing the negative 32-cent consensus estimate. Revenue trickled in at around $31.5 million, against expectations of $34.5 million, and net margins were highly compressed at -536%.
Applying standard valuation metrics to an early-stage orbital network would be a fundamental misstep. AST SpaceMobile's heavy cash burn is not an operational failure. It is the necessary capital expenditure required to build a dominant infrastructure layer.
Telecommunications infrastructure requires billions in upfront spending before a single dollar of recurring revenue is generated. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.24 and current liquidity ratios sitting comfortably above 13.0, AST SpaceMobile's balance sheet is defensively positioned to weather the near-term operational runway. Wall Street's $86.58 consensus price target suggests that institutions are ignoring current margin compression in favor of the broad total addressable market expected upon commercialization.
Rocket Lab Navigates a New TrajectoryRocket Lab Today
$63.81 +0.71 (+1.13%)
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$151.00$108.83
While commercial telecommunications represent a high-growth vertical, the space economy is not monolithic. Different entities are carving out highly specialized, insulated moats. Consider Rocket Lab USA NASDAQ: RKLB. Rocket Lab directly competed for the $700 million NASA Mars Telecommunications contract and ultimately lost to Blue Origin, which had a much larger balance sheet.
Despite this setback, Rocket Lab's business fundamentals remain strong due to a strategic pivot toward national security. Rocket Lab recently secured an approximately $190 million HASTE contract for 20 hypersonic test flights. This award proves that it is successfully capturing high-margin Department of Defense infrastructure spending, helping insulate it from the highly competitive commercial telecom space.
This sector-wide rising tide is also lifting adjacent players. Following Berenberg's initiation of coverage on the space sector, Earth observation data provider Planet Labs PBC NYSE: PL saw shares rally roughly 5%. The synchronized movement across launch providers, data aggregators, and telecommunications operators validates the theory that institutional capital is re-rating several verticals within the pure-play space sector at once.
Board the Space Economy and Prepare for Lift-OffWhen company metrics look strained by heavy capital expenditures, insider trading activity often provides the most reliable signal of future viability. While manufacturing delays threaten the BlueBird satellite production cadence and reliance on third-party launches poses bottleneck risks, insiders at AST SpaceMobile are putting substantial capital on the line.
Director Adriana Cisneros recently executed an open-market acquisition of 10,822 shares at an average price of about $57.22. This roughly $619,000 allocation increased her total holdings to nearly 800,000 shares. When an insider buys heavily into a high-cash-burn phase, it signals a strong conviction that regulatory approvals and commercial rollouts will materialize before liquidity becomes an issue.
This insider confidence is mirrored in institutional positioning, with entities such as the California State Teachers Retirement System establishing anchor positions.
The physical economy is expanding beyond the atmosphere. As launch costs drop and telecommunications providers lock in orbital bandwidth, companies that built out space infrastructure early will likely command a premium. Investors looking to diversify beyond terrestrial tech might consider evaluating pure-play space names as these networks transition from experimental concepts into contracted, everyday utilities.
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Should You Invest $1,000 in AST SpaceMobile Right Now?Before you consider AST SpaceMobile, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and AST SpaceMobile wasn't on the list.
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The space race is growing fast, and you don’t have to have gotten in early on SpaceX to profit. This report shows seven space stocks you can buy today that may grow as rockets, satellites, defense, space internet, and new space technology become more important.
Rocket Lab is an exceptional aerospace business with strong execution and a bright long-term future. RKLB trades at a steep 40x forward Price to Sales, a 20x premium to the sector median, making valuation a key concern. Management has consistently outperformed, beating analysts' estimates for eight consecutive quarters, boosting confidence in execution.
Rocket Lab (RKLB +1.13%) is carving out an important niche in the space industry, and the company's upcoming Neutron rocket could be the key to its eventual success.
Some investors looking to benefit from Rocket Lab's potential growth are likely wondering whether owning enough Rocket Lab stock could turn them into millionaires when this rocket stock takes off.
While I think Rocket Lab stock is worth owning, it's unlikely to make you a millionaire. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Why Rocket Lab has lots of potential Rocket Lab is readying its newest rocket, called Neutron, after a series of delays. Neutron will represent a significant upgrade in capabilities from its current Electron rocket, able to send more than 28,000 pounds into lower Earth orbit (vs. 661 pounds with Electron) and deploying more of the company's new flat-panel satellites.
The reusable rocket is central to Rocket Lab's growth, and management said on the second-quarter earnings call that it expects Neutron to reach the launchpad in Q4 of this year, though it might not launch then.
Still, Neutron's launch debut is getting closer, and customers are already lining up. Rocket Lab already has at least seven Neutron-specific commercial launches in its backlog through 2029, and more are likely on the way through government defense launches.
While modest, Rocket Lab's sales are growing at a healthy clip and rose 62% in the second quarter (ended June 30) to $234 million. It also has nearly $2.4 billion in launch backlogs -- not guaranteed revenue, but potential sales -- tied to both its Electron and Neutron rocket launches.
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Rocket Lab is probably worth owning, but won't make you a millionaire I think Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, paired with the expanding space industry, offers investors a unique investment opportunity. Space Exploration Technologies is an obvious competitor, but Rocket Lab has a financial advantage because it's not spending tens of billions of dollars to build expensive AI data centers.
What's more, analysts are bullish on Rocket Lab, with an average price target of $112.65. That's a significant upside potential of about 77% from the stock's current price.
But even with all of its potential, millionaire-making stocks are few and far between. And Rocket Lab would have to pull off some astronomical feats to mint millionaires.
For example, let's assume you made a sizable $10,000 investment in Rocket Lab right now. Rocket Lab would have to 100x to turn that into $1 million. With a market cap of about $40 billion, Rocket Lab would have to balloon into a $4 trillion company.
Only a handful of the world's largest tech companies -- like Apple and Nvidia -- are worth that much.
So while owning Rocket Lab is a good way to play the new space race, it's best not to hope that the stock will make you a millionaire.
From a share price just under $65 at the end of July to an intraday high north of $86 mid-month to... just over $64 at the end of August, Rocket Lab (RKLB +1.13%) stock went full circle last month. Eventually, the stock ended up not just back where it started but actually a bit below. Investors seem to have cooled to the idea that Rocket Lab might become "the next SpaceX."
Meanwhile, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +6.42%) stock is up 30% in August.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why do investors seem to be ignoring Rocket Lab? Why are they flocking to SpaceX stock instead -- and are they right to do so? Because it's not as if Rocket Lab has been reporting bad news lately.
On Aug. 20, Rocket Lab announced its 93rd successful Electron rocket launch, delivering an Earth-imaging satellite to orbit for longtime customer Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space. (iQPS). With 14 launches so far this year, Rocket Lab's on pace to at least match last year's record of 21 launches by the end of this year -- and possibly surpass it.
On Aug. 18, the U.S. Space Force picked Rocket Lab to join its Space Data Network Consortium, awarding the company $12 million to work on the Space Data Network Backbone (SDN-B), a "secure, high-speed global satellite communications network for military operations."
Just one day earlier, on Aug. 17, Space Force also drafted Rocket Lab to work on its NITE-STAR program, a $981 million umbrella contract "to support a distributed test and training architecture to help prepare [Space Force officers] for contested scenarios."
And of course, there's the transformative deal Rocket Lab announced in June. Buying Iridium Communications (IRDM -0.04%) for $8 billion -- just 20% of its own market capitalization -- Rocket Lab immediately straightened its path to profitability, and prepared to leapfrog other unprofitable space stocks to become both generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitable and free cash flow positive as early as next year.
With successes like these, why would anyone prefer to own SpaceX?
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Why you might prefer to own SpaceX over Rocket Lab Not to put too fine a point on it, but the primary reason investors might prefer SpaceX stock over Rocket Lab is that SpaceX is light-years ahead of Rocket Lab (and everyone else) in space tech.
Rocket Lab may have launched 93 rockets in its lifetime, for example, but SpaceX launched nearly twice that -- 165 rockets -- in 2025 alone. What's more, Rocket Lab's launches currently max out at 300 kilograms of payload to orbit with the expendable Electron rocket -- versus SpaceX's payload of 22,800 kilograms with the reusable Falcon 9.
Rocket Lab is working on a bigger, reusable rocket of its own, the Neutron medium-lift vehicle. It was supposed to conduct its inaugural launch in 2025, however, and be in regular rotation this year -- but 2026 is three-quarters over, and Neutron has yet to leave the launchpad even once.
Meanwhile, SpaceX has conducted 13 test flights of its next-generation launch vehicle, the reusable Starship -- and targets 10,000 launches per year within a few years of Starship being certified for flight.
We're aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.
Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!
-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Aug. 21, 2026 With a 100-ton-plus payload to low earth orbit and a launch cost measured in single-digit millions, Starship promises to outclass every other family of rocket launchers on the planet, Rocket Lab's Neutron included, on payload, launch frequency -- and price.
Reasons galore And that's just one aspect of SpaceX's space business. There's also Starlink, the company's satellite communications powerhouse and likely profits driver for SpaceX in future years. Starshield, the militarized version of Starlink. And the Human Landing System, the rocketship that will return astronauts to the moon in 2028. And Terafab. And orbital data centers.
And. And. And.
Mind you, I still have my reservations about the decision to merge SpaceX's superior space businesses with the cash-burning AI businesses of Grok and X. Elon Musk may believe AI is a $26.5 trillion opportunity, but if I were ever to invest in SpaceX, it would be for the business that gave SpaceX its name: space.
Until Rocket Lab (or anyone, really) proves it's able to match SpaceX's achievements not just in one or two of the categories SpaceX created, but to juggle all of them successfully and simultaneously, it's inarguable that SpaceX will remain the single best space company on Earth.
Matthew J. Desch, Chief Executive Officer of Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM -0.21%), disposed of 9,583 shares of common stock on September 1, 2026, according to a recent SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value~$450,209Shares sold9,583Post-transaction shares (directly held)1,441,434Post-transaction value~$67.34 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($46.98); post-transaction value based on September 01, 2026 market close ($46.72).
Key questionsWhat was the nature of this stock disposition?
The transaction was a non-discretionary sale conducted to cover tax withholding obligations associated with the settlement of equity awards. This type of activity is automated based on earlier compensation arrangements and does not indicate a discretionary change in the insider's investment thesis.How does this impact the CEO's total equity exposure?
The 9,583 shares disposed of represented less than 1% of Matthew Desch's prior holdings. Following the filing, the CEO retains a direct position of ~1.4 million shares, maintaining substantial exposure to the company's performance.What is the current valuation context for Iridium Communications?
As of the September 1, 2026 market close, Iridium Communications had a market cap of $5 billion. The shares were priced at $46.72, reflecting an 88% total return for the stock over the one-year period ending on the transaction date.Does the insider hold any other interests in the company?
The current filing details direct common stock ownership of ~1,441,434 shares. While no specific counts were provided for derivative securities in this transaction, the insider typically holds other equity-based awards as part of an executive compensation package.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-09-01)$46.72Market Capitalization$5.0 billionRevenue (TTM)$884.2 millionNet Income (TTM)$93.3 millionCompany SnapshotIridium Communications provides critical mobile voice and data communication services through its satellite network, offering postpaid and prepaid mobile satellite voice and data connectivity, push-to-talk services, broadband data solutions, and advanced Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities to generate revenue across multiple service segments.The company operates a subscription-based business model, generating recurring revenue from enterprise and government customers through service contracts, supplemented by equipment sales and value-added services that leverage its proprietary satellite infrastructure.Iridium serves a diverse customer base including commercial enterprises, United States and international government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and individual consumers, with particular strength in sectors requiring reliable global connectivity in remote and underserved regions.Iridium Communications operates the world's only truly global mobile satellite communications network, serving critical connectivity needs and generating $884.2 million in trailing 12-month revenue.
The company maintains a competitive advantage through its extensive satellite constellation and established relationships with government and enterprise customers who depend on its services for mission-critical communications in areas where terrestrial networks are unavailable or unreliable. With trailing 12-month net income of $93.3 million, Iridium demonstrates the profitability and scale of its satellite communications platform.
What this transaction means for investorsIridium CEO Matthew Desch's Sept. 1 sale of company stock does not represent a red flag for investors, since it was a non-discretionary transaction executed to fulfill tax withholding obligations in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units (RSUs).
An RSU is a form of compensation where a company grants an employee shares of stock at a future date. When that vesting date arrives, as was the case here, a "sell to cover" transaction occurs to pay the related taxes.
Iridium Communications stock soared 88% over the trailing 12 months through Sept. 1 thanks to its impending acquisition by Rocket Lab. The deal involves a combination of cash and stock, and values Iridium at $54 per share.
The transaction is set to close in mid-2027, although it must get past regulatory hurdles, and the deal involves a collar. These factors have weighed on Iridium stock, and shareholders are likely to lose the dividend payments they've enjoyed to date. Rocket Lab does not currently pay a dividend and is not a profitable company.
Robert Izquierdo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Starship test 14 is close enough to taste, and investors are already crowding into two specific Musk-linked names while the broader space sector barely moves. The question is whether the runway justifies the run.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) shares are leading a tight rally into Thursday afternoon as investors position ahead of Starship test 14. SpaceX stock is up 7% to $150.84. The buying is concentrated in two specific names within a single ecosystem story.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is running with it on autonomy optimism and its equity and manufacturing links to SpaceX. Tesla stock is up 7% to $381.69. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is barely budging, with RKLB stock up 1% at $63.66 after a strong post-earnings run.
The framing sharpens it. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 0.2% to $43.23, barely off flat even as SpaceX rallies. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, is up 1% to $772.46. That combination confirms Thursday’s bid is a two-name trade rather than sector rotation into space.
Starship Test 14 and Terafab Anchor the Bid SpaceX said Starship test 14, the next flight of its fully reusable rocket, could be days away, with the vehicle standing about 400 feet tall as the largest rocket ever built. No confirmed launch date has been published, so the event sits in an approaching window rather than a scheduled one. That binary event risk cuts against the day’s enthusiasm even as the capital commitments stack up.
SpaceX confirmed on August 6 the Grimes County, Texas site for Terafab, a semiconductor project jointly backed with Tesla, with an initial commitment of $16.8 billion and at least 3,000 employees. ARK Invest estimated Terafab could eventually require $1 trillion in total investment, surpassing the inflation-adjusted $704 billion cost of the U.S. Interstate Highway System. Those figures are reshaping how investors think about the tie between the two names.
SpaceX also disclosed plans to invest $100 billion in Starbase, Louisiana, in Vermilion Parish, with construction starting in 2027 and first launch targeted as early as 2029. SpaceX founder Elon Musk noted SpaceX acquired mobile power provider APR Energy for $1 billion, a business operating more than one gigawatt of deployable gas and diesel generation capacity. Musk replied with one word, “True,” to an X post arguing his companies’ promises are turning into factories, vehicles, and launch dates.
How the Three Names Diverge SpaceX has run hard into the pending test. The stock was up 23% over the past month through the prior close, and Thursday’s advance extends that momentum. Q2 2026 backed the tape with revenue of $7.81 billion versus $6.82 billion estimated and a backlog of $47.5 billion.
Tesla tells a different tape. The stock was down 21% year to date (YTD) and up 11% over the past month through the prior close, so the same ecosystem story is being priced differently across the two stocks. Tesla’s Q2 delivered record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles and nearly 1.5 million paid FSD customers globally, though operating margin compressed to 1.4%.
Rocket Lab is the outlier. The stock was down 10% YTD through the prior close and isn’t participating Thursday despite record Q2 revenue of $234.07 million and a $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year. The Neutron medium-lift rocket is targeting Q4 2026 delivery to launch pad, but today’s narrow enthusiasm shows buyers are focused on Musk-linked catalysts rather than launch beta.
Ecosystem Bet, Not Space Bet The Musk-linked capital plans reach beyond rockets. Tesla holds a $2 billion SpaceX equity stake and partners on semiconductor fab, and Starlink is being integrated into Cybercab and other Tesla vehicles. Terafab is a chip foundry meant to feed Optimus production and future AI hardware, tying manufacturing risk between the two companies.
SpaceX’s Q2 print supports the ambition. AI segment revenue reached $2.56 billion, up 247% year over year, and Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. On Polymarket, prediction markets assign a 0.9 probability that SPCX finishes Thursday higher, a bullish tilt that has already priced in a lot of good news.
The bear case is worth noting. Tesla’s Q2 non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.33 versus $0.54 estimated, a real miss, and free cash flow turned negative at -$1.09 billion. If Starship test 14 disappoints, both names could give back the same-day gains quickly.
What to Watch The Starship test window and any FAA notices could shape the next leg for SpaceX. Tesla holders can watch for follow-through on Terafab site work and Robotaxi expansion beyond its current seven U.S. metros.
Investors sizing their positions across the two names may want to keep their space-ecosystem exposure moderate given the binary launch risk sitting on top of already large capital plans (we laid out sizing and exit rules for exactly this kind of high-conviction, event-driven setup in a free speculation playbook).
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways Rocket Lab strengthens its space platform across launch services, space systems and national security.RKLB advances Neutron with qualification testing, hardware integration and Archimedes engine testing.Rocket Lab's Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions boost optical communications, robotics and vertical integration. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) shares have risen 43.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense Equipment industry’s growth of 2.7%. The company is driving growth by expanding its end-to-end space platform, advancing Neutron, and strengthening launch and space systems capabilities. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions, along with rising U.S. national security opportunities, support long-term growth.
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Meanwhile, stocks like Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS - Free Report) and TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG - Free Report) have underperformed the industry during the same period. Shares of DRS and TDG have fallen 9.8% and 9.6%, respectively.
With RKLB shares gaining over the past year, investors may have positive views. Let’s examine the factors and assess the stock’s investment prospects to make an informed decision.
Factors Boosting RKLB Stock's GrowthRocket Lab is strengthening its end-to-end space platform across launch services and space systems. Electron and HASTE support commercial and government missions, while Neutron is expected to expand its addressable market into medium-lift constellation and defense launches. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions further enhance optical communications, satellite mechanisms and robotics capabilities, strengthening vertical integration.
The company made significant progress in the second quarter of 2026, advancing Neutron qualification testing, first-flight hardware integration, Archimedes engine testing and reusable fairing systems. Rocket Lab had completed 87 Electron missions and delivered more than 250 spacecraft through June 30. Its backlog reached $2.36 billion, providing greater visibility into future revenues.
In August 2026, Rocket Lab announced its onboarding to the U.S. Space Force’s NITE-STAR IDIQ program, which has a $981 million ceiling. The selection allows Rocket Lab to compete for future task orders covering space and ground systems, digital environments and mission operations, expanding its opportunities in national security space and strengthening its position as an end-to-end space solutions provider.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for RKLB’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a rise of 44.44% over the past 60 days.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Leonardo DRS’ 2026 EPS calls for a jump of 5.38% in the past 60 days. The estimate for TransDigm Group’s fiscal 2026 EPS implies an increase of 2.47% over the same period.
Debt Position of RKLBCurrently, Rocket Lab’s total debt to capital is 0.83%, lower than the industry’s average of 61.47%. It indicates that the company can run its business efficiently with much lower debt levels than its industry peers.
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Liquidity Position of RKLBRKLB has a current ratio of 5.48 compared with its industry’s average of 2.06. The ratio, being more than one, indicates that RKLB possesses sufficient capital to pay off its short-term debt obligations.
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Its industry peers, Leonardo DRS and TransDigm Group, also maintain current ratios above one. DRS has a current ratio of 1.92, while TDG holds 3.02.
RKLB Stock Trades at a PremiumRocket Lab is currently trading at 31.3X, a premium compared to its industry’s 7.64X on a forward 12-month Price/Sales basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Should an Investor Do?Rocket Lab is benefiting from expanding launch and space systems capabilities, progress on Neutron and rising national security opportunities. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions further strengthen vertical integration, while its growing backlog and broader end-to-end space platform support long-term growth prospects.
Given RKLB’s strong share price performance, improving earnings estimates, lower debt levels and solid liquidity position, investors may consider including this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock in their portfolios at current levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab shares have shed nearly all their 2026 gains despite a record backlog and a deal that could fundamentally transform the company's revenue profile, and the gap between where the stock sits today and where our model puts it…
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) has become one of the most watched space stocks on the market, and our proprietary model sees room for a sizable move higher.
The one reason it could turn into a monster winner: a launch-plus-systems-plus-applications flywheel that few competitors can match, now backed by a $2.36 billion backlog and a pending transformative acquisition.
Metric Value Current Price $63.92 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $123.10 Upside 92.59% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Rocket Lab is $123.10 over the next 12 months, implying meaningful upside. Confidence sits at medium, appropriate for a pre-profit growth story with a high-beta profile.
A Backlog-Driven Reset After a Volatile Summer RKLB has been volatile. Shares hit $151 earlier in the trading year before pulling back to the low $60s, and are now down 8.37% year to date and 6.39% over the past week. Over five years, the stock is up 530.37%.
Q2 2026 was a record quarter. Revenue grew 62% year over year to $234.07 million, beating consensus by 1.35%. GAAP EPS of -$0.08 came in just below the -$0.0767 estimate, weighed down by $8.576 million in acquisition-related transaction costs.
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.5%, and management guided Q3 revenue to $250 million to $265 million. CEO Peter Beck noted “more than a billion dollars in new contracts across launch and space systems already entered into in Q3.”
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead The bull thesis: Rocket Lab is becoming a self-launching, tier-one space power. The Iridium acquisition adds a constellation of 66 satellites, 2.5 million subscribers, and roughly $870 million in annual recurring revenue. Neutron is tracking to Q4 2026 delivery to the pad, with more than 400 hot fires completed.
Defense tailwinds are enormous, with the FY2027 Golden Dome program requesting $17.9 billion and the U.S. Space Force budget climbing to $71.2 billion. If Neutron flies cleanly and Iridium closes, the bull case points to $156.54, or roughly 144.91% upside.
Risks Worth Watching The bear case is real. RKLB posted a Q2 net loss of $49.258 million, and fiscal 2025 free cash flow was -$321.806 million. Rocket Lab raised $1.53 billion in ATM equity in H1 2026, and Q3 basic shares are guided to 641 million.
Any Neutron slippage or Iridium regulatory hiccup could compress the multiple fast. The dilution funded a $2.129 billion cash war chest and a strategic acquisition that transforms the revenue mix. Our bear-case target lands at $96.31, still above today’s price.
How Rocket Lab Compares to Lockheed Martin and Iridium Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is the defense-prime benchmark and a fellow Golden Dome contractor. LMT carries a record $230.42 billion backlog and guided 2026 EPS to $29.95 to $30.65, versus RKLB’s -$0.2682 full-year EPS estimate. LMT trades on cash flow today; RKLB trades on option value. That gap justifies a growth multiple on Rocket Lab.
Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) is the recurring-revenue engine RKLB is acquiring. IRDM did $225.24 million in Q2 revenue with 2.63 million subscribers and a market cap near $5 billion. Once folded in, IRDM derisks Rocket Lab’s cash flow profile, making our $123.10 target reasonable rather than aggressive.
Rocket Lab Price Prediction 2026-2030 Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $74 2027 $123 2028 $204 2029 $256 2030 $323 These projections assume Rocket Lab executes on Neutron, closes Iridium, and continues winning defense contracts. Significant upside or downside could result from Neutron’s inaugural launch outcome.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $123.10 with a buy rating and medium confidence. The tipping factor is the backlog conversion story combined with defense demand.
The setup favors investors who can stomach the volatility and a multi-year hold while Neutron scales. The setup weakens materially if Neutron slips into 2027 or Iridium’s approval drags. On balance, the risk-reward looks compelling.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The summer of the space economy is turning into a pumpkin of a fall. Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.48%) -- a space stock that saw its shares soar around the Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) initial public offering -- has now seen its shares fall 57% from its highs in just a few months.
Today, it trades at a market cap of $38 billion and is slated to try to close its massive deal for Iridium Communications soon. I remain bullish on the company's business prospects as it tries to become the second space economy prime contractor alongside SpaceX.
However, I am still not buying unless shares reach a lower level this year. Here's why.
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Ambitious growth plans It is difficult to boil down Rocket Lab's ambitions for the space economy into just a few paragraphs. The company already has a solid footing in the rocket launch business with its small Electron rocket. As of the latest quarterly results, 90+ contracts have now been signed for Electron launches, the highest level in the company's history.
Other revenue today comes from the growth of Rocket Lab's space systems segment, which builds systems for third parties and the U.S. government that can be deployed into space. For example, it just won a contract with the Space Force to build multiple geostationary satellites. This is just one of the many contracts being won in this division, which is why the company's total backlog has now grown to $2.3 billion.
Rocket Lab is not resting on its laurels with these existing business lines. It is in the process of acquiring Iridium Communications, a satellite internet provider that will help Rocket Lab more directly compete with SpaceX, for $8 billion in a half-stock, half-cash deal. Lastly, Rocket Lab is working hard on debuting its Neutron rocket, which has been years in development and is much larger than the Electron. It will either debut with its first full test flight later this year or in early 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Path to profitability Despite all these investments, Rocket Lab is not profitable, with a negative free cash flow of $371 million over the last 12 months.
There are a few ways it can scale up to profitability. First, the acquisition of Iridium will be an immediate boost, as the company generated $288 million in positive free cash flow over the last 12 months. Second, once the Neutron starts launching for customers, it will go from a science-project money pit to a revenue generator for the business. Third, the continued scaling of the space systems and Electron business will lead to operating leverage.
All of these feats may take a few years to achieve, but Rocket Lab is well on its way.
RKLB Free Cash Flow data by YCharts
Why Rocket Lab is not yet a buy, but should be on your watch list As a space economy winner, Rocket Lab is most frequently compared to SpaceX. Right now, before the Iridium acquisition closes, Rocket Lab stock has a market cap of $38 billion. SpaceX is approaching $2 trillion. This is a bit of a misleading comparison, because SpaceX is trying to become an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure player, which Rocket Lab has never mentioned it wants to do.
A good way to value Rocket Lab stock today is on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which takes out any comparisons to megacap stocks and strictly starts to focus on the fundamentals. On a trailing basis, Rocket Lab trades at a P/S ratio of 48. To be fair, there is a lot of growth coming down the line from the Neutron and this massive backlog, but right now, Rocket Lab trades at a steep revenue multiple. The S&P 500 average is just 3.8, and that is at a record high.
Rocket Lab is a promising business, and I think it will generate billions in revenue in the years ahead. However, I would wait to buy until a much lower price materializes, maybe half of today's level, even though the stock is already down more than 50% from its highs in the last three months.
MAHIA, New Zealand, Sept. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today successfully launched its 94th Electron rocket to deploy the latest Earth-imaging satellite to space for Synspective.
The ‘Owl Around The World’ mission launched from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 12:01 am NZST on September 3, 2026. Electron successfully deployed the StriX satellite to a 575km low Earth orbit, further building out Synspective’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging constellation and expanding the company’s capabilities for advanced ground monitoring and Earth observation.
Mission Highlights:
Strong Launch Cadence: This mission marked Rocket Lab’s 94th overall Electron launch and 15th launch of 2026. Electron remains the world’s most frequently launched small-lift orbital rocketFlawless Launch for Synspective: Today’s flawless delivery of the latest StriX satellite to space continues Rocket Lab’s 100% mission success record across all Synspective launches.Custom Fairing: A specially-configured Electron fairing was built to match the exact dimensions of the StriX satellite: a highlight of Rocket Lab’s dedicated mission service for its long-time partnership with Synspective.More Missions: Rocket Lab has been the sole launch provider for Synspective's constellation since 2020, with another 16 missions booked on Electron to deliver the rest of their constellation to orbit before 2030. ‘Owl Around The World’ launch images: click here
‘Owl Around The World’ launch broadcast: click here
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
A video accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/a3f5cb14-5cb0-4894-8559-c441e72935dd
Rocket Lab - 'Owl Around The World' Launch Rocket Lab's 94th Electron launch and latest mission for Synspective.
Berenberg just handed two beaten-down space stocks their biggest single-session pops in weeks, but the reason one name surged twice as hard as the other reveals a fault line in how the market is pricing the entire sector.
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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is up 11% to $62.36 in Wednesday morning trading, its sharpest single-session bid in weeks. Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is climbing alongside, up 5% to $20.14 on the same initiation. Both are still trailing the sector year to date, so today’s buying reads as a bounce in laggards rather than a sector-wide continuation.
The Procure Space ETF (NYSEARCA:UFO) is up 0.2% to $42.83. Two corner holdings running hot while the fund barely moves signals an initiation-driven bounce, not a sector rotation.
Berenberg Initiation Drives the Bid Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov initiated Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction), AST SpaceMobile, and Planet Labs at Buy in a new sector launch. AST SpaceMobile stock drew the highest price target at $92, with Filatov describing the company as “the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones.” He cited more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers.
Planet Labs shares received a $25 price target, with Filatov calling the company “the only company imaging the entire Earth daily.” He pointed to a backlog up 72% year over year to roughly $906 million and accelerating revenue growth. Rocket Lab stock picked up an $83 target, with Filatov naming the company “the only end-to-end public pure-play in space.”
Two Different Theses Behind the Bids Filatov framed the sector view around falling launch costs pushing the space economy past $500 billion in 2025. He cited defence space spending of $74 billion in 2025 and a U.S. Space Force fiscal 2027 budget request that more than doubled from the prior year.
AST SpaceMobile stock is a connectivity bet that hinges on constellation deployment reaching scale. The company launched BlueBirds 8 through 10 in June and BlueBirds 11 through 13 in August, moving toward the 45 satellites needed to open commercial service. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) provided the Falcon 9 for the August launch.
Planet Labs shares trade on a different premise. The moat is an imagery archive and daily global coverage that competitors can’t rebuild quickly, which explains why the initiation produced a much larger relative move in AST SpaceMobile stock than in Planet Labs shares. Connectivity is priced off milestones a constellation still must hit, while daily-imaging cadence is already booking revenue and lengthening the backlog.
Laggards Getting a Bounce, Not a Sector Rally Through Tuesday’s close, AST SpaceMobile stock was down 23% year to date (YTD) and Planet Labs stock was down 2% YTD, while the Procure Space ETF was up 11%. Today’s buying is concentrated in the two names that have trailed the sector rather than across the sector itself.
That gap signals a re-rating of specific stories on a specific thesis rather than fresh capital flowing into space broadly. Both names still have ground to make up on the sector fund before year’s end.
What to Watch Next Planet Labs is scheduled to report quarterly results after the close on September 3, the next test of the backlog figure the Berenberg thesis rests on. Traders can watch for whether reported bookings and remaining performance obligations hold the pace management outlined on the prior call.
For investors building exposure to either name, the price action rewards discipline over chasing. Trimming their positions on strength and scaling in during quieter sessions keeps their risk sized to a story that unfolds over quarters, not days.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The drone market is expected to witness a CAGR of 9.34% from 2026 to 2031, according to a report from Mordor Intelligence.
The defense segment continues to serve as the key growth engine. The growing geopolitical strains and defense upgrades are driving increased drone adoption worldwide. Globally, drones are now being widely deployed for border security, precision strikes, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (“ISR”) and other tactical operations, making them indispensable assets in modern warfare.
Apart from defense and military use, drones are now increasingly deployed across various industries. Drones have become integral to various sectors like mining, infrastructure monitoring, real estate, oil and gas exploration, and even filmmaking. From aerial photography and agricultural mapping to data collection and operations across sectors, drones are transforming how businesses operate. Drones are gaining momentum in last-mile delivery operations as companies look to cut operational costs and enhance productivity.
Drone technology is scaling new heights, driven by cutting-edge advancements in autonomous technology and AI-powered navigation. The embedding of AI has made modern drones faster and more versatile than ever. AI incorporation is driving the autonomous navigation functionality of drones, enabling them to autonomously plan their flight paths based on real-time data, such as environmental terrain. The integration of 5G and advanced Wi-Fi technology has improved real-time data transmission, expanding commercial applications.
With regulatory frameworks evolving and military and commercial adoption gaining pace, the drone sector has a long runway for growth. Drone tech companies with strong R&D pipelines, diversified end-market exposure, and strategic collaborations are well-positioned to flourish in this evolving landscape.
If you are looking to capitalize on this trend, our Drone Technology Screen makes it easy to identify high-potential stocks, such as Elbit Systems (ESLT - Free Report) , Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) and Unusual Machines (UMAC - Free Report) .
Explore 40 cutting-edge investment themes with Zacks Thematic Investing Screens and uncover your next big opportunity.
3 Drone Tech Stocks in FocusElbit Systems is an Israel-based company that develops innovative solutions across several domains, including unmanned systems. In the second quarter of 2026, the company reported higher UAV sales in Israel. Although Aerospace segment revenues declined 8% year over year due to an unfavorable project mix and lower training and simulation sales in Europe, increased UAV sales in Israel partly offset these headwinds.
Earlier in the year, Elbit Systems won a major $1.4 billion European extensive military modernization contract spanning multiple battlefield domains, including uncrewed autonomous solutions. Elbit also highlighted the U.S. Army’s selection of its THOR Group 2 UAS, describing the award as an expansion of its UAS footprint in the country.
Elbit is also strengthening the technology surrounding unmanned operations through acquisitions. In January 2026, ESLT acquired U.K.-based UAVTactical Systems Ltd (“UTACS”). UTACS is a key supplier of advanced tactical UAS to the British Army, other NATO member countries and the United Nations. In May 2026, ESLT’s subsidiary FUSE acquired another Israeli technology company, Blue White Robotics Ltd. (Bluewhite).
Bluewhite develops AI-driven autonomous solutions for critical off-road and defense applications. The acquisition bolsters FUSE’s autonomous capabilities and complements its unmanned aerial and swarm technologies. Elbit is also investing heavily in counter-drone technologies.
ESLT carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab Corporation is benefiting from momentum across both Space Systems and Launch Services, supported by rising government defense spending, constellation deployments and heavy demand for launch capacity. Second-quarter 2026 revenues reached $234 million, increasing 62% year over year and 16.8% sequentially. Space Systems revenues amounted to $189.5 million, up 38.6% sequentially, driven by the satellite manufacturing business and initial contribution from the Mynaric acquisition.
Contract momentum remains particularly strong. The company had a $2.36 billion backlog, comprising roughly 60% Space Systems and 40% launch at quarter-end. Management expects about 45.5% of the existing backlog to convert into revenues over the next 12 months, while component orders could provide additional revenue beyond this backlog conversion.
Launch demand is another important catalyst. On the last earnings call, Rocket Lab highlighted that it booked more than $437 million in bookings for Electron, HASTE and Neutron. It secured a $266 million Space Force contract for up to 18 suborbital missions and a $397 million contract to build and launch Flatellite spacecraft for the U.S. Space Force.
Neutron represents a longer-term organic growth catalyst. The development program is progressing through final checkout and assembly, with delivery to the launch pad targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026.
Another potential catalyst is the proposed Iridium acquisition, expected to be closed around mid-2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The acquisition will accelerate RKLB’s entry into the space applications niche. RKLB carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Unusual Machines is a fast-scaling player within the evolving drone industry supported by strong tailwinds. The company is a domestic NDAA-compliant drone components supplier. The first-person view (“FPV”) is UMAC’s core operational area within the drone industry. The company is benefiting from strong demand, driven primarily by rising U.S. defense demand. On the last earnings call, management noted that the U.S. supply ecosystem remains constrained, and it expects demand to outstrip supply through 2026 and deep into 2027.
The Department of War remains the primary demand driver, supported by the Drone Dominance Gauntlet program, higher autonomous-systems spending and an accelerating counter-UAS market. Management highlighted that the Gauntlet Program is on track, with Phase 2 in its final selection process, and that more than 60,000 drones were expected to be ordered in the second half of 2026, primarily in the fourth quarter.
Management highlighted several large industry awards, including counter-UAS and FPV drone programs, and believes these programs should generate incremental component demand. UMAC expects these to begin flowing through the supply chain in the late third quarter and fourth quarter and into 2027.
To capitalize on this demand, UMAC is aggressively scaling its manufacturing capacity. The pending Upgrade Energy acquisition is likely to broaden UMAC's product portfolio into batteries and strengthen its competitive position as a more comprehensive drone component supplier.
UMAC, which carries a Zacks Rank #2, generated $16.7 million in revenues, up 687% year over year in the second quarter of 2026. Approximately 95% of quarterly revenues came from Enterprise customers.
Rocket Lab stock NASDAQ:RKLB is under pressure, Neutron’s inaugural launch window is narrowing and NASA has handed a major Mars communications contract to Blue Origin.
Yet Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management is buying.
ARK purchased 504,799 Rocket Lab shares across three ETFs on Tuesday, worth about $31.6 million at the $62.54 closing price.
That followed 200,303 shares bought Monday, taking two-day purchases to 705,102 shares, worth roughly $44 million.
Rocket Lab fell 2.2% Tuesday, its ninth decline in 10 sessions, then slipped further after hours.
Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein lowered his Rocket Lab price target to $110 from $115 on August 31 but kept a Buy rating.
TipRanks reported that the cut partly reflected expectations for a higher share count rather than a major deterioration in Epstein’s operating view. At Tuesday’s close, the revised target still implied about 76% upside.
That gives bulls a straightforward argument: even after recent setbacks, one of Wall Street’s freshest targets remains far above the market price.
But a target does not prove the selloff has gone too far. Rocket Lab still has to deliver the growth embedded in those forecasts, and a growing part of that case depends on Neutron.
Rocket Lab wants Neutron to move it beyond small launch and into the larger medium-lift market, but the schedule has become increasingly important.
Chief executive Peter Beck said after second-quarter results that the window for an end-of-year inaugural launch was “narrowing.” Rocket Lab still needs to complete major testing milestones before flight.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard raised his target to $122 from $96 after the results and called Neutron “the most material catalyst,” according to TipRanks.
Sheppard argued that the orbital launch market remains supply-constrained and Rocket Lab is well positioned to benefit through Electron, HASTE and eventually Neutron.
That creates the tension behind Wood’s purchases. If Neutron performs as intended, a stock trading more than 50% below its May record could eventually look discounted.
However, if delays continue, the catalyst supporting some of Wall Street’s highest valuations keeps moving further away.
The latest setback came after Tuesday’s close, when NASA selected Blue Origin to develop its Mars Telecommunications Network.
NASA said the firm-fixed-price contract has a maximum potential value of about $700 million and requires Blue Origin to deliver a Mars telecommunications orbiter by the end of 2028. Rocket Lab had been eligible to compete.
Rocket Lab ended the second quarter with a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% from a year earlier.
The company expects about 45.5% of that backlog to be recognised within 12 months and had more than 90 launches booked across Electron, HASTE and Neutron.
Roth Capital analyst Suji Desilva cut his target to $110 from $130 after the quarter but retained a Buy rating. The Fly reported that Desilva said the backlog provides “meaningful near-term revenue coverage.”
That is why Wood’s buying is notable without proving she has called the bottom.
ARK is adding exposure during Rocket Lab’s weakest stretch in months, while analyst targets remain substantially above the share price. But whether the selloff has gone too far now depends increasingly on execution.
NEW YORK & NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Former Attorney General of Louisiana Charles C. Foti, Jr., Esq. and the law firm of Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC (“KSF”) are investigating the proposed sale of Iridium Communications Inc. (NasdaqGS: IRDM) to Rocket Lab Corporation (NasdaqGS: RKLB). Under the terms of the proposed transaction, shareholders of Iridium will receive $27.00 in cash and a number of shares of Rocket Lab common stock calculated pursuant to an exchange ratio for each share of Iridiu.
Key Takeaways RKLB leverages acquisitions to expand its spacecraft component manufacturing and engineering capabilities.RKLB supplies spacecraft components to commercial and government customers beyond its missions.RKLB's component portfolio spans reaction wheels, star trackers, radios, batteries and optical systems. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) is expanding its space system business by developing and manufacturing a broader range of spacecraft components for its platforms and the wider space market. Its portfolio includes reaction wheels, star trackers, radios, separation systems, solar solutions, command and control software, high-voltage space-grade batteries and optical systems. This expanding product base allows Rocket Lab to participate in spacecraft development beyond launch services.
The company's component strategy is supported by a series of acquisitions that have added specialized manufacturing and engineering capabilities. Rocket Lab has integrated businesses, including Sinclair Interplanetary, Planetary Systems, SolAero Technologies, Advanced Solutions and GEOST, into its broader space system platform. These acquisitions have expanded its ability to manufacture critical spacecraft components and provide related software and services.
Rocket Lab is also targeting the broader merchant spacecraft market rather than limiting these products to its missions. Its vertically integrated capabilities enable the company to manufacture components at scale while supporting spacecraft programs across commercial and government customers. This approach can create opportunities to supply multiple spacecraft platforms without requiring Rocket Lab to provide the launch service itself.
A broader spacecraft component portfolio could provide Rocket Lab with additional avenues for growth as satellite programs become more complex, and demand for specialized space hardware increases. By combining component manufacturing, spacecraft development and mission services, the company is building a larger role within the space supply chain while diversifying beyond its traditional launch business.
Companies Expanding Spacecraft Component CapabilitiesGrowing satellite deployments are driving demand for specialized spacecraft hardware and integrated systems. Companies like Redwire Corporation (RDW - Free Report) and Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN - Free Report) are also developing and supplying technologies used across spacecraft and aerospace platforms.
Redwire provides spacecraft structures, solar arrays, avionics and other space infrastructure technologies.
Karman Holdings develops structural components for launch vehicles and satellites, including composite structures and other space infrastructure components.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share suggests year-over-year growth of 81.48% and 240%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB Stock Is Trading at a PremiumRocket Lab is trading at a premium relative to the industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 32.02X compared with the industry average of 7.81X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB Stock Price PerformanceOver the past year, RKLB shares have rallied 30% compared with the industry’s 3.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB’s Zacks RankRocket Lab currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab's stock has shed more than half its value from its peak while analysts pile on buy ratings and one major bank sees the price doubling. Something has to give, and the answer hinges on a rocket that has…
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $63.92 against a consensus analyst price target of $112.94, implying roughly 77% upside if Wall Street’s average call proves right.
Rocket Lab operates the Electron rocket, the Neutron medium-lift vehicle in development, and a fast-expanding space-systems business. Backlog and revenue are climbing at record pace, yet the stock has been sliding in the opposite direction, creating an interesting disconnect.
KeyBanc carries the Street-high target at $135.00, implying roughly 111% upside from current levels.
Growth Story, Sinking Share Price Rocket Lab’s chart and P&L tell different stories. Shares are down 6.39% over the past week, 8.37% year to date, and sit far below the 52-week high of $151, a peak-to-current drawdown exceeding 57% for a stock with a beta of 2.629.
Q2 revenue of $234.07 million beat consensus of $230.94 million and grew 62.0% year over year, but GAAP EPS of -$0.08 missed the -$0.0767 estimate due to $8.576 million acquisition costs. An $1.53 billion ATM raise in the first half, a narrowing Neutron launch window, and integration risk from Mynaric, Motiv, and Iridium explain market caution.
Why Analysts Remain Bullish The sell side has not blinked. Alpha Vantage shows 3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 4 Hold, and 0 Sell ratings, and recent EPS revisions for 2026 and 2027 have skewed upward over the trailing 30 days. Backlog jumped 137% year over year to $2.36 billion, with management booking more than $1 billion in new Q3 contracts.
KeyBanc’s Michael Leshock upgraded to Overweight with the $135.00 target, citing Rocket Lab as the clear No. 2 challenger to SpaceX in commercial launch, high conviction in Neutron scaling, structural undersupply of global launch capacity as Starship absorbs Starlink demand, and a growing defense book anchored by the $397 million Flatellite award for the U.S. Space Force SB-AMTI program.
Management targets Q4 2026 pad delivery for Neutron, but CEO Peter Beck warned that “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.” CFO Adam Spice added that meaningful cash-flow improvement likely follows Neutron’s test flight by 18 to 24 months, framing this as a 2027 story.
Space Peers in the Same Storm AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades at $59.10, down 18.63% year to date, with consensus target at $78.48 for roughly 33% upside and a 1 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell split markedly more cautious than RKLB’s.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) has held roughly flat year to date at $19.85, but the $40.10 consensus target implies about 102% upside. Ratings run 1 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, with analysts pointing to 42% revenue growth and an $816 million backlog.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $15.36 versus a $29.25 target, roughly 90% upside, with 7 Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell.
Planet Labs shows the largest implied upside, but RKLB is the highest-quality name with the cleanest ratings distribution, making KeyBanc’s $135 target stand out even in a discounted peer set.
By the Numbers With shares at $63.92 and a consensus target of $112.94 across 18 analysts, implied upside is roughly 77%, with KeyBanc’s Street-high target stretching that to about 111%. Rocket Lab is down 8.37% year to date while the S&P 500 has climbed 12.48%, a roughly 21-point relative gap.
Ratings breakdown:
Strong Buy: 3 Buy: 11 Hold: 4 Sell / Strong Sell: 0 Rocket Lab trades at 53x trailing sales with a beta of 2.629, so target-price math assumes the growth curve compounds.
Bull and Bear Case for RKLB The bull case rests on Neutron reaching the pad in Q4 2026, flying successfully in early 2027, and Iridium closing on schedule to add recurring communications revenue atop a backlog that grew 137% year over year. If those pieces land, KeyBanc’s $135 target becomes defensible and the current price would reflect a discount window on a genuine SpaceX alternative.
The bear case builds if Neutron slips, the ATM machine keeps running, and integration friction from three simultaneous acquisitions turns 2027 into cleanup rather than scaling. At 53x sales with persistent GAAP losses, a delayed first flight would justify further multiple compression.
The bull thesis is intact, backlog is real, and analyst posture skews positive, though risk/reward only gets easy once Neutron actually flies. The first launch window remains the key catalyst to watch.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Space stocks have been on a wild ride this year. Many, if not all, rose by 50% to 100% at the peak, if not more, only to fall back to earth once the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX IPO was completed.
Cathie Wood has been buying more shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX). The investment is appreciating (SPCX climbed over 30% this past month).
Meanwhile, another of Wood’s space bets is flashing a bearish Death Cross technical pattern, widening the performance gap between two of ARK’s most closely watched investments.
Chart created using Benzinga Pro
As Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares have formed a Death Cross, a technical pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Many technical traders view the signal as evidence that longer-term momentum has turned bearish, although it does not guarantee further declines.
The bearish setup comes after a difficult month for the stock. Rocket Lab shares are down 2%+ over the past month, in sharp contrast to the strength seen in SpaceX, whose shares have gained 30%+ over the same period.
Wood’s latest quarterly holdings also suggest Rocket Lab has become a smaller part of her investment strategy. ARK Investment Management’s second-quarter 13F filing showed the firm reduced its Rocket Lab position by 27%, ending the quarter with 1.63 million shares, down from 2.24 million shares three months earlier.
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Cathie Wood’s SpaceX Bet Keeps GrowingThe Rocket Lab trim coincided with a notable addition elsewhere in ARK’s space portfolio.
ARK Investment Management initiated a new position in SpaceX during the second quarter, purchasing 4.48 million shares valued at approximately $765 million, according to its latest 13F filing. While 13F filings only capture positions as of June 30, subsequent performance has increased the significance of that investment.
Over the past month alone, SPCX has gained 32.5%, increasing both the market value and portfolio weight of ARK’s SpaceX exposure. As of Aug. 31, SpaceX ranked as ARK Innovation ETF‘s (BATS:ARKK) second-largest holding, accounting for 6.11% of the portfolio, while Rocket Lab represented just 0.39%.
The contrast suggests Wood’s conviction in the space sector remains intact, but its center of gravity has shifted. Rather than exiting the theme, ARK’s portfolio increasingly reflects a preference for SpaceX while Rocket Lab’s importance has diminished.
Investment TakeawayFor investors, Rocket Lab is showing weakening technical momentum. Also, its weighting within Wood’s flagship ETF has fallen sharply.
SpaceX, on the other hand, has become one of ARKK’s largest holdings and benefited from a strong recent rally.
Whether that divergence continues will depend on fundamentals, but for now, both the charts and ARK’s portfolio suggest Wood’s space exposure stems more from SpaceX than Rocket Lab.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) remains under pressure, languishing below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With that in mind, Rocket Lab stock is setting up as an interesting bearish candidate when looking for new option trades.
Let's look at a setup known as a bear put spread. This is a bearish option trade that benefits from further downside in the stock price. A bear put spread is a debit spread, meaning an investor needs to pay the premium in order to open the trade.
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On Rocket Lab, a bear put spread could be set up using the 65 strike as the long put and the 60 strike as the short put for the Oct. 16 expiration. This trade would cost around $205 per contract, based on recent trading, with a maximum potential gain of $295.
Rocket Lab Options Trade Setup
To achieve the maximum profit, this trade would need Rocket Lab stock to drop more than 11% from Tuesday's late-morning price of 67.60 between now and expiration on Oct. 16. The break-even point for the bear put spread is 62.95. The break-even point is calculated as 65 minus the $2.05 option premium per contract.
If Rocket Lab stock drops early in the trade, it may be possible to make a profit at slightly higher prices. At expiration, if Rocket Lab stock is trading above 65, the entire spread would expire worthless, and the trade would lose 100% or $205.
A stop loss could be set at 50% of the premium paid, which in this case would be a loss of around $100 to $105.
As this is a bearish position, traders who think Rocket Lab stock could move higher from here should not enter this trade.
The trade starts with a delta of -10, meaning the exposure is roughly equivalent to being short 10 shares of Rocket Lab.
IBD Ratings For Rocket Lab Stock
Based in Long Beach, Calif., the aerospace and launch company is best known for its small Electron rocket. It's also making an effort to move upmarket with the larger, still-in-development Neutron rocket aimed at competing more directly with SpaceX (SPCX).
Investors might be cautious given the company's lack of profitability, its rich valuation relative to current revenue, execution risk around Neutron's delayed timeline, and intense competition in a launch market where a single misstep or failed launch could weigh heavily on the stock.
Investor's Business Daily gives Rocket Lab stock a Composite Rating of 19 out of a best-possible 99. It has an Earnings Per Share Rating of 49 and a Relative Strength Rating of 35.
According to IBD Stock Checkup, Rocket Lab is ranked 38th in its Aerospace/Defense industry group.
Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment.
This article is for educational purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Gavin McMaster has a master's in applied finance and investment. He specializes in income trading using options, and is conservative in his style. He also believes patience in waiting for the best setups is the key to successful trading. Follow him on X/Twitter at @OptiontradinIQ.
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Rocket Lab's (RKLB -4.65%) Neutron rocket has been generating buzz for years. The larger rocket will help Rocket Lab compete with Space Exploration Technologies, aka SpaceX, and open up larger revenue streams and more lucrative contracts.
However, a setback earlier this year pushed the timeline further out, shifting expectations from a 2026 launch to a potential 2027 takeoff.
This news is a blow to investors eager to see Neutron take off, but CEO Peter Beck emphasized the importance of readiness so the company can hit the ground running when Neutron eventually does. Here's what the delay means for investors, and what the future has in store for Rocket Lab.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Rocket Lab's medium-lift Neutron rocket faced a setback early this year During a hydrostatic pressure test in January, Rocket Lab's Stage 1 main propellant tank ruptured. The test aimed to assess structural margins, push the tank to extreme conditions, and validate flight readiness.
The good news was that there were no injuries or damage to the test stands or launch infrastructure. The bad news is that it pushed back Neutron's launch date, which is expected to open up another major stream of high-margin income for Rocket Lab.
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The company had been optimistic that it could get Neutron off the ground later this year, but those hopes are beginning to fade. The company still plans to roll out its Neutron rocket to the launch pad by the fourth quarter of this year, but it must complete a series of ground tests before it takes flight. Beck told investors during its Aug. 10 earnings call that "the window for an end year launch is narrowing."
CEO Peter Beck is taking a long-term approach to the Neutron launch Beck went on to say Rocket Lab is focused on "risk trading" and that while "the first flight is extremely important," "it's really about how do we get to flight 10 in the shortest time possible," showing Beck's focus on long-term production over meeting short-term deadlines.
The delayed timeline is a setback for Rocket Lab, but the company is taking steps to ensure it's ready to hit the ground running when it does begin launching its medium-lift Neutron rocket. When it begins taking flights, the company projects that its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will turn positive.
Is Rocket Lab's recent dip a buying opportunity? Neutron will be a key part of Rocket Lab's growing end-to-end space business, allowing it to compete for larger, more lucrative contracts. That said, it's one part of the puzzle as Rocket Lab expands its defense and aerospace capabilities alongside its space systems business, which supports satellite makers and other space-based businesses.
For investors optimistic about the future of the space economy and seeking pure-play exposure to space, Rocket Lab, down 54% from its most recent peak, looks like a buy ahead of the likely 2027 launch of its Neutron rocket.
Shares of Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) are trading flat Wednesday morning, holding stable after a 10% weekly pullback as investors weigh high development costs against massive defense wins. Here’s what investors need to know.
Rocket Lab stock is showing downward pressure. Where are RKLB shares going? Upcoming Neutron Rocket Tapped for $397M Military DeploymentOn Aug. 4, Rocket Lab won a $397 million U.S. Space Force contract to build, launch and operate threat-tracking “Flatellites” for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) program.
Marking Rocket Lab’s largest national security award of the year, the agreement utilizes its upcoming medium-lift Neutron rocket for orbital deployment.
Strong Q2 Earnings and Record Backlog Balanced Against Neutron Development CostsThe stock’s 10% weekly pullback contrasts with Rocket Lab’s strong second-quarter financial results reported on Aug. 10. For the quarter ended June 30, the company delivered a record $234 million in revenue, up 62% year-over-year and expanded its backlog to a record $2.36 billion.
Management guided for third-quarter revenue between $250 million and $265 million, supported by more than $437 million in new launch contracts secured across its Electron, HASTE and Neutron programs.
While national security execution remains a growth driver, underpinned by a $397 million Space Force contract award and inclusion in the defense sector’s NITE-STAR architecture, investors are weighing high operating expenses and ongoing capital expenditures as hardware integration and testing continue for the medium-lift Neutron rocket ahead of its planned debut.
RKLB Shares Pause Wednesday MorningRKLB Price Action: Rocket Lab shares were trading at $66.79 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
Rocket Lab Corporation currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.50, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 18 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.50 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 18 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 13 are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 72.2% and 5.6% of all recommendations.
While the ABR calls for buying Rocket Lab Corporation, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Is RKLB a Good Investment?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Rocket Lab Corporation, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 22.6% over the past month to -$0.05.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for Rocket Lab Corporation. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for Rocket Lab Corporation may serve as a useful guide for investors.
SummaryRocket Lab generated $234 million in Q2 revenue while its backlog reached $2.36 billion across increasingly integrated space programs.More than $1 billion of recent contracts show demand extending across Electron, HASTE, Neutron, and Space Systems simultaneously.Neutron commands $50 million to $55 million in pricing before the first flight, shifting the concern from demand toward production cadence.Iridium adds 2.5 million subscribers and recurring services, while Neutron's delays, dilution, and elevated cash burn remain key risks. Elen11/iStock via Getty Images
I see Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) gradually shifting from just a launch service provider into an integrated space infrastructure provider combining launch, spacecraft, components, and even eventually applications. As a result, I am
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKLB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Investors trying to navigate the space industry have no doubt considered investing some of their money in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%).
And why wouldn't they? The company is one of the leading rocket launch companies, has a successful satellite internet business, a top artificial intelligence model, and just had a successful test launch of the largest rocket ever made.
But SpaceX isn't without its issues. For one, it's gone on a massive spending spree to fuel its growth. And, frankly, some investors simply aren't enthusiastic about how Elon Musk runs his companies.
For those looking for an alternative space stock, here's why Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.65%) should be at the top of your list.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rocket Lab's future is about to take off Rocket Lab already has a robust rocket launch business with its Electron rocket carrying payloads into orbit for customers. But its future will be built on its much larger Neutron rocket.
Neutron is a reusable medium-lift rocket capable of sending 28,000 lbs. into low Earth orbit, far more than Electron's 661-lb capacity. This means that Rocket Lab will soon be able to make far more money from its launches than it has previously.
I say "soon" because Neutron is still in the final stages of testing, and management recently said it plans to get Neutron to the launchpad before the end of the year. Neutron has already been delayed before, and management's focus on getting Neutron to the launchpad by the end of 2026, versus actually launching it, could mean Neutron isn't quite ready yet.
Still, Rocket Lab is making progress, and customers are already signing agreements specifically for Neutron launches. The company has at least seven Neutron-specific commercial launches in its backlog through 2029, and likely more through government defense launches.
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One such government contract, worth $397 million, with the U.S. Space Force involves Neutron deploying new flat-panel satellite technology into orbit for the Space Force's Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) program.
What's more, Rocket Lab has 90 launch missions in its backlog for both Electron and Neutron, worth $2.36 billion. While it's not guaranteed revenue, it does show how interested Rocket Lab's customers are in its rocket technology and how successful the company could be once Neutron begins launching payloads.
Why Rocket Lab stock is better than SpaceX Rocket Lab isn't profitable, but its revenue is growing. Sales rose by 62% in the second quarter (ended June 30) to $234 million. The company's losses also narrowed to $0.08 per share, an improvement from $0.13 per share in the year-ago quarter.
SpaceX is in a similar position, albeit at a much larger scale. The company's losses narrowed to $0.09 per share in the second quarter (ended June 30), which was far better than its $0.34 loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion.
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But the main reason Rocket Lab is a better space stock right now is that its spending is under control, while SpaceX's appears to be running wild.
Even as Rocket Lab is building and testing components of its Neutron rocket, the company's capital expenditures (capex) were just $26 million in the second quarter, down from $32 million in the year-ago quarter. That's in stark contrast to SpaceX's $18.3 billion in capex spending in the quarter, a 554% increase from the year-ago quarter.
That's a heck of a lot of spending, and most of it -- nearly $16 billion -- went toward the company's massive Colossus AI data center project. SpaceX will likely continue to spend heavily as it builds out its data centers, which could weigh on the company's earnings for years to come.
Rocket Lab has its risks, but the company is laser-focused on its rocket launch business and isn't burning through billions of dollars in capex. With Neutron on the cusp of launching, a surge in backloads of new contracts, and far less spending, I think Rocket Lab stock looks like the better buy right now.
SummaryRocket Lab Corporation delivered record Q2 revenue, backlog, and gross margin, reinforcing my Strong Buy rating despite market focus on Neutron delays.RKLB's defense business is scaling independently, with $456 million in suborbital contracts that do not require Neutron and demonstrate competitive wins over legacy contractors.The backlog reached $2.4 billion, with 45.5% expected to convert within a year; management guides for another record Q3 and signals margin variability due to contract mix.Neutron remains critical for future upside, including a $397 million satellite contract and access to expanded NSSL opportunities; cash burn and dilution are key watchpoints until Neutron's debut. loops7/iStock via Getty Images
On August 10, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) reported the best quarter in its history, and no one cared. What the market did care about was whether Neutron would fly in 2026. Even so, shares
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.65%) has had an eventful year, including major acquisitions, record revenue, and multiple contracts with the U.S. Space Force. But it has also had to delay the launch of its highly awaited Neutron rocket, and its stock is expensive, even after pulling back from the all-time high of $151 it set in May.
This has made it one of the more divisive stocks on the market. Let's look at the bull and bear cases to see whether Rocket Lab is worth investing in.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Bull case: The business keeps growing In terms of financial performance, Rocket Lab delivered an excellent first half of 2026. It set revenue records in both quarters, most recently with $234 million in Q2 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase. Its backlog increased 137% year over year to a record $2.36 billion, and it's guiding for revenue of $250 million to $265 million in Q3.
Although Neutron's launch is delayed until Q4 2026 at the earliest, Electron, the company's small-lift rocket, has been a success. On Aug. 20, Rocket Lab launched the 93rd Electron mission overall and the 14th of the year. Rocket Lab's launch cadence has also tripled over the last four-and-a-half years, from two launches in Q4 2022 to six in Q2 2026.
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Rocket Lab's launch business is progressing quickly, and defense contracts are becoming a growing part of its revenue. Space Force awarded it a $266 million multi-launch contract in July and a $397 million contract to deliver multiple Flatellite spacecraft on Neutron earlier this month.
Bear case: An expensive multiple relying on an unflown rocket Rocket Lab's revenue may be increasing rapidly, but it still trades at about 51 times trailing sales (as of Aug. 26). It's also unprofitable, reporting a net loss of $49 million in Q2 2026. In fairness, this is par for the course with high-profile space stocks. For comparison, Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX, trades at 87 times trailing sales and lost $541 million in Q2 2026.
The bull case for Rocket Lab also relies heavily on a rocket that hasn't successfully launched yet. During a pressure test in January, Neutron's first-stage tank ruptured, delaying the launch date. The 2026 launch window is closing, and any further delays will almost certainly push the first launch into 2027.
Although Neutron's first flight is important, CEO Peter Beck says that "it's really about how do we get to flight 10 in the shortest time possible." The company is focused on getting it right from the beginning to avoid needing to go back and make changes later.
Is Rocket Lab a buy? Rocket Lab is worth considering for growth-focused investors, as it's one of the leaders in a potentially massive industry. McKinsey has projected that the global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035.
The primary issue for Rocket Lab at the moment is the Neutron delay, but that's a normal occurrence for space companies. On a positive note, the first Neutron launch could flip Rocket Lab's adjusted EBITDA positive by the following quarter, according to CFO Adam Spice.
Rocket Lab stock is volatile, and the valuation remains high, but rapidly growing companies often trade at high multiples. Given the company's recent results and the space industry's long-term outlook, the current price appears to be a good buying opportunity.
Adam C. Spice, Chief Financial Officer of Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB -4.65%), sold 9,677 shares of common stock on August 24, 2026 according to a recent SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value~$674,000Shares sold (direct)9,677Post-transaction shares (directly held)1,155,967Post-transaction shares (indirectly held)250,000Post-transaction value~$96.0 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($69.63); post-transaction value based on August 24, 2026 market close ($68.28).
Key questionsWhat was the context for this disposition?
The transaction was a non-discretionary sell-to-cover event initiated to meet tax withholding requirements associated with the vesting and settlement of restricted stock units (RSUs) previously granted to the executive.How is the insider's remaining equity structured?
Following this transaction, the insider retains a total equity position of 1,405,967 shares, which includes 1,155,967 shares held directly and 250,000 shares held indirectly by a trust, representing an 0.2400% ownership interest in the company.What is the valuation context for the executive's remaining holdings?
As of the August 25, 2026 market close of $66.91, the insider's remaining equity stake was valued at approximately $94.1 million, occurring after a 54% one-year total return for the stock as of the August 24, 2026 transaction date.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-25)$66.91Market Capitalization$38.7 billionRevenue (TTM)$769.1 millionNet Income (TTM)-$165.5 millionCompany SnapshotRocket Lab provides comprehensive space-related services and hardware, including orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, spacecraft component production, and on-orbit constellation management services.The company generates revenue through a diversified business model encompassing commercial launch services, spacecraft manufacturing and sales, and managed space services for government and commercial customers.Rocket Lab serves the space and defense industries, including government agencies, commercial satellite operators, and defense contractors seeking reliable access to space and advanced orbital infrastructure.Rocket Lab Corporation is a prominent aerospace and defense enterprise headquartered in Long Beach, California. The company has established itself as a key provider of small-lift launch services and end-to-end space solutions, leveraging its proprietary technology and operational expertise to address growing demand for responsive space access.
With trailing 12-month revenue of $769.1 million, Rocket Lab continues to scale its operations while investing in next-generation launch platforms and space infrastructure capabilities to strengthen its competitive positioning in the rapidly expanding commercial space sector.
What this transaction means for investorsCFO Adam Spice's Aug. 24 sale of Rocket Lab stock is not a red flag for investors. It was a non-discretionary transaction executed to fulfill tax withholding obligations in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units (RSUs).
An RSU is a type of compensation where a company grants an employee shares of stock at a future date. When that vesting date arrives, as was the case here, a "sell to cover" transaction occurs to pay the related taxes.
With over one million directly held shares, Adam Spice maintains a sizable equity stake in Rocket Lab. This ensures his continued alignment with shareholder interests.
Rocket Lab stock is up 54% over the trailing 12 months through Spice's Aug. 24 disposition thanks to strong business performance. The company reported revenue of $234 million in the second quarter. This sum represents a strong 62% year-over-year increase.
Rocket Lab is also making progress on its planned acquisition of Iridium. This deal grants Rocket Lab a constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites that handle phone calls and text messaging anywhere on the planet.
Robert Izquierdo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Frank Klein, Chief Operations Officer of Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB -4.65%), reported a sale of 45,692 shares in a SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueShares sold45,692Transaction value~$3.2 millionPost-transaction shares (directly held)961,295Post-transaction value~$65.64 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($69.63); post-transaction value based on Aug. 24, 2026, market close ($68.28).
Key questionsWhat were the underlying mechanics of this transaction?
The sale was a non-discretionary disposition executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to satisfy tax withholding obligations associated with the vesting and settlement of restricted stock units. The shares were sold at a weighted average price of $69.63 per share, with individual trade prices ranging from $69.00 to $70.64.How does this disposition affect the executive's total equity position?
Following the transaction, Frank Klein maintains direct ownership of 961,295 shares of Rocket Lab. This remaining position is valued at ~$65.64 million as of the Aug. 24, 2026, market close, and the executive retains significant exposure to the company, with total insider ownership at 0.17%.What is the company's current financial and market profile?
Rocket Lab is an aerospace company based in Long Beach that provides orbital launch services and spacecraft engineering for the defense and space industries. As of the Aug. 25, 2026, market close, the company has a market capitalization of $38.7 billion, and it recently reported trailing twelve-month revenue of $769.1 million and a net loss of $165.5 million.What has been the recent performance context for the stock?
The company's stock achieved a 54% one-year return as of the Aug. 24, 2026, transaction date. Shares were priced at $66.91 as of the Aug. 25, 2026 market close, reflecting the current valuation levels during this period of insider activity.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-25)$66.91Market Capitalization$38.7 billionRevenue (TTM)$769.1 millionNet Income (TTM)-$165.5 millionCompany SnapshotRocket Lab provides comprehensive space-related services and hardware, including orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, spacecraft component production, and on-orbit constellation management services.The company generates revenue through a diversified business model encompassing commercial launch services, spacecraft manufacturing and sales, and managed space services for government and commercial customers.Rocket Lab serves the space and defense industries, including government agencies, commercial satellite operators, and defense contractors seeking reliable access to space and advanced orbital infrastructure.Rocket Lab Corporation is a prominent aerospace and defense enterprise headquartered in Long Beach, California, with 2,600 employees and a market capitalization of $38.7 billion as of Aug. 25, 2026. The company has established itself as a key provider of small-lift launch services and end-to-end space solutions, leveraging its proprietary technology and operational expertise to address growing demand for responsive space access. With TTM revenue of $769.1 million, Rocket Lab continues to scale its operations while investing in next-generation launch platforms and space infrastructure capabilities to strengthen its competitive positioning in the rapidly expanding commercial space sector.
What this transaction means for investorsCOO Klein's sale shouldn't be anything for investors to worry about. It was a pre-arranged transaction set in place to cover tax withholding obligations from restricted stock units. It isn't a bet on RKLB stock one way or the other, just more of a cost of doing business for executives at times.
As for Rocket Lab stock itself, I don't believe now is a great time to sell anyway -- things are starting to get really exciting. The company's recent acquisition of Iridium and its global satellite communications network -- and its L-band spectrum -- helps move Rocket Lab closer to becoming a one-stop shop for all things space. Best of all, Iridium earned nearly $500 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, providing valuable cash flow for Rocket Lab as it scales and nears profitability.
Whether it is the launch itself, a wide array of space applications, or access to space in general, Rocket Lab is seeing no shortage of demand for its products. And the best may be yet to come, as we await Rocket Lab's first launch of its medium-lift Neutron rocket, which will enable larger payloads and even more growth optionality. In the last quarter, sales rose 62%, and the company's backlog spiked 137%, all while adjusted EBITDA margins kept improving.
That said, RKLB stock trades at 51 times sales, so I would advise investors to buy in small portions over time if interested. I have already been buying the company and will keep buying, following its 50% share price drop since May, as its long-term future is packed with immense growth optionality.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.65%), a developer of reusable orbital rockets, is usually considered SpaceX's (SPCX +0.45%) much smaller competitor in the launch services market. But over the past three years, it quietly carved out a niche with HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron), a launch vehicle for testing hypersonic and suborbital technologies.
Unlike its Electron rockets, which enter Earth's orbit, HASTE acts as a testbed for accelerating payloads to hypersonic velocities in suborbital environments. Its primary customer is the Department of Defense (DoD), which uses HASTE to solve a major bottleneck in testing experimental systems at hypersonic speeds under real atmospheric conditions.
Image source: Getty Images.
Those tests cover scramjets (hypersonic jet engines), thermal protection materials, sensors, guidance systems, and missile defense systems. In the past, the DoD used repurposed military missiles, custom rockets, and ground-based wind tunnels to conduct these experiments. However, these methods were expensive, infrequent, and didn't fully simulate suborbital atmospheric conditions.
With HASTE, which is built on the same bones as Rocket Lab's Electron rockets, the DoD can conduct those tests at scale for a lower price. They can also be launched more frequently, customized for precise trajectories, and carry larger payloads than their legacy predecessors.
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How will HASTE help Rocket Lab? Rocket Lab doesn't disclose exactly how much revenue it generates from its HASTE launches. But based on the value of its announced contracts, HASTE generates much more revenue per flight ($9.5 to $22 million) than its standard commercial Electron launches ($8 to $10 million).
HASTE launches cost more because they require customized trajectories, specialized suborbital payload integration, hardware modifications, and coordination with defense ranges. But by using the Electron's assembly lines and tools to build its HASTE vehicles, Rocket Lab can generate higher gross margins from those launches than its standard Electron launches.
Rocket Lab has secured around $500 million in HASTE contracts so far. It holds a $266 million contract with the DoD (Space Force) to launch 12 flights, a $190 million contract with the Navy to launch 20 flights, a $30 million contract with Anduril Industries for three launches, and about $15-$20 million in individual mission contracts with Leidos (LDOS +0.57%) and the DoD's DIU (Defense Innovation Unit) and DIT (Defense Innovation Transition) teams.
That backlog is equivalent to more than half of its projected 2026 revenue of $953 million. It also significantly widens its moat against SpaceX, which doesn't offer any hypersonic suborbital flights on its larger Falcon rockets. By locking in this niche market, it has secured a steady stream of revenue from the Pentagon that will likely continue to rise over the next few years.
Rocket Lab still has plenty of irons in the fire Rocket Lab is best known for its Electron rockets, which have been launched 93 times to deploy over 264 satellites, and its upcoming, higher-capacity Neutron rocket. Those rockets, along with HASTE, generate most of Rocket Lab's Launch Services revenue.
However, Rocket Lab's Launch Services segment only accounts for about 25%-30% of its revenue. More than 70% of its revenue comes from its Space Systems segment, which builds satellite components, solar panels, and complete spacecraft buses. Its planned takeover of Iridium (IRDM -2.18%), expected to close in 2027, will further expand its Space Systems segment with a global satellite communication network.
In other words, Rocket Lab is expanding into an end-to-end services company that offers launch, manufacturing, and satellite services. It could face tough competition from SpaceX in those markets, but as long as it carves out defensible, growing niches -- as it did with HASTE -- it could continue to thrive in the shadow of the aerospace and AI behemoth.
That's why analysts still expect Rocket Lab's revenue to nearly triple from 2025 to 2028. It's still a speculative stock that isn't cheap at 42 times this year's sales, but it could still have plenty of upside potential as the nascent space industry expands.
In a market environment that's still buzzing about the recent IPO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%), much smaller space launch company Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.65%) quietly continues plodding along. It just launched its so-called Electron rocket for the 93rd time, in fact, although it doesn't seem to be affecting the share price much.
Its stock is still falling from its late-May peak, with investors remaining enamored with SpaceX and unimpressed by Rocket Lab's continued progress. What gives?
Arguably, one factor far more than any other. That's its other rocket, called Neutron.
Image source: Getty Images.
The right idea at the right time Not all rockets are built the same. The reusable Electron is designed and built from the ground up to put payloads of 660 pounds or less into low-Earth orbit, or LEO. And it's proven to reliably do exactly that.
There's only so much need for this sliver of the space launch industry, though. Much of the future of space-based science, communication satellites, and even lunar and interplanetary exploration will require bigger rockets.
Enter Neutron. It can lift over 14 tons of equipment and/or personnel into LEO, making it competitive with SpaceX's medium-lift capabilities. And Neutron isn't just an idea. It's been designed, built, and almost launched a handful of times.
There's the rub. Initially expected to fly in 2024, its first flight has been pushed back several times now, with the latest projection suggesting its inaugural launch now won't happen until sometime in 2027. And that assumes delays won't surface in the meantime. Investors are understandably frustrated, recognizing that each day Rocket Lab can't prove its Neutron rocket works is another day a potential customer considers tapping SpaceX (or another competitor) instead.
It matters simply because, according to an outlook from industry research outfit Precedence Research, the worldwide space launch service market is expected to grow at an average annual pace of more than 11% between now and 2035 -- led by medium-lift LEO launches -- when it should be worth on the order of $70 billion per year.
The story behind the steering wheel Successfully entering the medium-lift launch business isn't critical to Rocket Lab's current and future viability. More than half of last year's top line reflected sales of products and satellite design services. Moreover, its recent acquisitions of Mynaric, Optical Support, and Iridium Communications bring it even more ways to capitalize on the ever-growing space business without Neutron making regular flights. And to its credit, even without its first successful launch, Rocket Lab recently announced that Kepler Communications would become a paying Neutron customer once the medium-lift rocket is finally ready for regular commercial operations.
It just doesn't matter to investors nearly as much as it arguably should. Neutron is Rocket Lab's highest-profile effort right now, which means the company's stock largely reflects its developmental progress (or lack thereof).
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More to the point for investors in or mulling a position in RKLB stock: Yes, Neutron's timeline is still your biggest risk ... even bigger than the company's ongoing losses or the hefty $8 billion price it paid for Iridium.
Just recognize that the stock's recent weakness could still reverse course at any time with no warning. The analyst community still contends it's worth $116 per share, which is more than 70% above the ticker's current price.
A downtrend has been apparent in Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) lately. While the stock has lost 7.4% over the past week, it could witness a trend reversal as a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session. This could mean that the bulls have been able to counteract the bears to help the stock find support.
While the formation of a hammer pattern is a technical indication of nearing a bottom with potential exhaustion of selling pressure, rising optimism among Wall Street analysts about the future earnings of this company is a solid fundamental factor that enhances the prospects of a trend reversal for the stock.
Understanding Hammer Chart and the Technique to Trade ItThis is one of the popular price patterns in candlestick charting. A minor difference between the opening and closing prices forms a small candle body, and a higher difference between the low of the day and the open or close forms a long lower wick (or vertical line). The length of the lower wick being at least twice the length of the real body, the candle resembles a 'hammer.'
In simple terms, during a downtrend, with bears having absolute control, a stock usually opens lower compared to the previous day's close, and again closes lower. On the day the hammer pattern is formed, maintaining the downtrend, the stock makes a new low. However, after eventually finding support at the low of the day, some amount of buying interest emerges, pushing the stock up to close the session near or slightly above its opening price.
When it occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, this pattern signals that the bears might have lost control over the price. And, the success of bulls in stopping the price from falling further indicates a potential trend reversal.
Hammer candles can occur on any timeframe -- such as one-minute, daily, weekly -- and are utilized by both short-term as well as long-term investors.
Like every technical indicator, the hammer chart pattern has its limitations. Particularly, as the strength of a hammer depends on its placement on the chart, it should always be used in conjunction with other bullish indicators.
Here's What Increases the Odds of a Turnaround for RKLBAn upward trend in earnings estimate revisions that RKLB has been witnessing lately can certainly be considered a bullish indicator on the fundamental side. That's because empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased 22.6%. What it means is that the sell-side analysts covering RKLB are majorly in agreement that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
If this is not enough, you should note that RKLB currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. And stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 usually outperform the market. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Moreover, the Zacks Rank has proven to be an excellent timing indicator, helping investors identify precisely when a company's prospects are beginning to improve. So, for the shares of Rocket Lab Corporation, a Zacks Rank of 2 is a more conclusive fundamental indication of a potential turnaround.
Although it's now been more than two months since its ballyhooed initial public offering, all eyes are still on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%) -- also known as SpaceX -- arguably at the expense of other space stocks. But that may be a mistake. At least one of the other names in the orbital launch business is quietly making inroads against the industry's biggest player.
That other company is Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.65%), which just signed a launch contract for a rocket that has yet to make its first flight.
Bigger and better Rocket Lab helps companies design and deploy satellites and other space-based technology. Although it's technically not its biggest business, the company's highest-profile profit center at this time is its reusable Electron rocket capable of lifting up to 660 pounds into low earth orbit, or LEO.
Image source: Getty Images.
That's not the end of Rocket Lab's launch-capabilities ambitions, though. It's developing a much bigger reusable rocket called Neutron that will lift in excess of 28,000 pounds' worth of payload into LEO. Canada's space-based telecom outfit Kepler Communications even recently commissioned a dedicated launch of Rocket Lab's Neutron to deploy a handful of its satellites.
The curious part of the agreement? Neutron's never actually been flight-tested.
Unproven, yet still trusted It's not from lack of trying. By early 2025, it looked like the rocket in question would finally be ready for initial flights by the end of that year. Then that milestone was pushed back to early 2026. Then it was pushed back again to late 2026, or even early 2027, as the company continues to address performance and safety issues. And that assumes no new concerns materialize in the meantime. They could.
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Kepler clearly isn't deterred, though. Even with other options -- including SpaceX -- for putting its satellites into low Earth orbit, it chose Rocket Lab's Neutron knowing it wouldn't be handling this contracted work until 2028, at the earliest. What gives?
Take the hint at face value It's not always exactly clear why an organization chooses one company's service over another's. This instance is no exception. It would be short-sighted, however, to ignore the depth and breadth of the service that Rocket Lab brings to the table.
It's not just launch. Satellite components, engineering services, software, and propulsion are all in its wheelhouse, and more, particularly after its recent acquisitions of Iridium Communications and Optical Support. This company is a complete, vertically integrated solutions provider, whereas SpaceX isn't. Although this menu of capabilities may or may not matter to all satellite communications companies in search of launch services, clearly for some of them, the customized assurance that Rocket Lab brings to the table is making a marketable difference.
It's just something to consider if you're mulling stepping into a position in RKLB on this dip, which, by the way, may largely be fueled by the feverish but somewhat reckless bullish interest in SPCX at the expense of other worthy stocks in the industry. That dynamic won't last forever.
