Iridium Communications (IRDM +1.39%) announced its Q3 2026 earnings Tuesday morning, Oct. 20. Shares of the satellite communications company are basically flat since -- they cost $44.18 Monday evening before earnings, and they cost $44.25 at Wednesday's close. Rocket Lab (RKLB +2.69%) stock, on the other hand, is up a healthy 4.5% since Iridium reported its earnings.
Why is that?
It's because it doesn't really matter much anymore -- or soon won't -- how well Iridium does. Rocket Lab is buying Iridium, you see (in an $8 billion deal). And for this reason, Iridium's good news is actually really Rocket Lab's good news.
Image source: Getty Images.
How Iridium beat earnings in Q3
Heading into its report Tuesday, Wall Street analysts had Iridium pegged for a $ 0.34-per-share profit on $236.3 million in sales. Iridium crushed both numbers, reporting $0.98 per share in profit (nearly three times what the Street predicted) on sales of $245.7 million.
How did Iridium do that? Largely by making an acquisition of its own, of space-based air traffic surveillance company Aireon.
Iridium reacquired Aireon in July, and Iridium management credits this acquisition with much of its 8% year-over-year revenue increase. Gains "related to the acquisition of Aireon" likewise accounted for Iridium's earnings coming in triple what Wall Street expected. Perhaps more important for Rocket Lab investors, Iridium noted that bringing Aireon in-house gave Iridium control over "the world's only space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) air traffic surveillance system."
And when Rocket Lab's own acquisition of Iridium takes effect mid-next-year, that will mean Rocket Lab owns the world's only space-based air traffic surveillance system, making it a key part of Rocket Lab's plan to expand into satellite-based Internet of Things (IoT), direct-to-cell communications, and "position, navigation, and timing" (PNT) markets.
IRDM Iridium Communications$44.40+$0.61 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26
Speaking of which, now that Iridium shareholders have voted to approve the merger -- and now that Iridium has reported its latest financials -- it's worth taking a second look at how this merger will affect Rocket Lab once it absorbs Iridium (and Aireon) next year.
As I've already pointed out, analysts are optimistic about Iridium. Forecasts compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicate Iridium should earn more than $210 million next year, up 35.5% year over year, even if revenue doesn't grow much at all. Free cash flow is expected to grow more slowly, but still to rise a very respectable 28% to $379 million.
Assuming the analysts are doing their math right, that should be more than enough to cover Rocket Lab's expected $74 million loss next year, and make whole its $83 million in negative free cash flow as well. Thanks entirely to its prescient decision to buy Iridium, Rocket Lab should end up both profitable and free cash flow positive in 2027.
Indeed, Iridium might end up making even more money for Rocket Lab than analysts currently expect.
Consider: Current analyst estimates have Iridium earning $155 million this year, but according to the just-released Q3 earnings results, Iridium has already earned more than $138 million in just the first three quarters of 2026.
With 75% of the year over, Iridium is already 89% of the way to hitting the analysts' target for this year! And if Iridium is this far ahead of the game already in 2026, and growing faster than expected, it stands to reason that 2027's results might similarly come in stronger than what analysts have forecast.
RKLB Rocket Lab$52.60+$1.38 (+2.69%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26
What it means for Rocket Lab investors
At least, that's what Rocket Lab investors will be hoping. Back-of-the-napkin, it's looking now like a combined Rocket Lab-plus-Iridium might generate $300 million or so in positive free cash flow next year, which on Rocket Lab's current $45 billion market capitalization works out to a 150x forward price-to-free cash flow ratio on the stock.
That's... not exactly cheap. For Rocket Lab to be a buy at its current price, it had better hope Iridium performs even better in 2027 than it's already performing in 2026.
Rocket Lab úspěšně vynesl tři satelity HAWK pro společnost HawkEye 360 na nízkou oběžnou dráhu Země; šlo o 98. start rakety Electron a 19. start v letošním roce.
MAHIA, New Zealand, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today launched its Electron rocket to deliver a dedicated mission to space for HawkEye 360, a signals intelligence data and analytics company.
The ‘We're Not Hawking Around’ mission launched from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 8:11 p.m. NZDT on 23 October 2026, to deliver three HAWK satellites to a 520km low Earth orbit. Operating in tri-satellite formation, HawkEye 360's satellites collect signal data from across the radio frequency (RF) spectrum for maritime tracking, GNSS jamming detection, radar monitoring, communications mapping, and space defense.
Today’s mission was Rocket Lab’s 98th Electron launch and 19th launch this year, further extending the vehicle’s record as the most prolific launcher globally dedicated to small satellites.
Mission Highlights:
Proven Constellation Partnership: Today’s launch success marks the third Electron launch dedicated to deploying HawkEye 360’s RF-sensing satellites, underscoring Rocket Lab’s trusted role in scaling commercial constellations for its customers.Rapid Launch Cadence: Now at 19 successful missions in 2026 alone, Rocket Lab continues to demonstrate the turnaround speed, high production rate, and schedule assurance demanded by modern commercial satellite companies and defense operators.Milestone Small Launch Leadership: This 98th Electron flight moves Rocket Lab closer to a record 100 launches, solidifying the launch vehicle’s position as the world’s premier, most frequently launched dedicated small orbital rocket. ‘We’re Not Hawking Around’ launch images: click here
‘We’re Not Hawking Around’ launch broadcast: click here
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
Rocket Lab ve druhém čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 62 % na 234 milionů USD, zatímco problém s nádrží prvního stupně posunul premiérový start rakety Neutron na rok 2027.
SummaryRocket Lab fell to roughly $51, creating a substantially better risk-reward setup despite Neutron’s inaugural launch slipping into 2027.Q2 revenue surged 62% to $234 million, while backlog reached $2.36 billion, and Space Systems represented 81% of revenue.Neutron’s biggest risk is manufacturing maturity, with another first-stage tank problem making successful qualification the critical 2027 de-risking milestone.RKLB trades around 29.4x forward EV/Sales, below AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, despite its increasingly diversified space infrastructure platform. Alones Creative/iStock via Getty Images
Introduction It has never been difficult for me to believe in Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB). It has always been difficult for me to evaluate the company in a proper way due to overpaying
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKLB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Akcionáři společnosti Iridium schválili její převzetí společností Rocket Lab 99,6 % hlasů; transakce má být po získání zbývajících schválení dokončena do poloviny roku 2027.
Completes acquisition of Aireon; Pending acquisition by Rocket Lab receives stockholder approval
, /PRNewswire/ -- Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM) ("Iridium" or the "Company"), a leading provider of global voice, data, aircraft surveillance, and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) satellite services, today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2026.
Update on Pending Transaction with Rocket Lab
On June 28, 2026, the Company entered into a definitive agreement with Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) ("Rocket Lab") under which Rocket Lab will acquire the Company. Iridium stockholders approved the transaction at a Special Meeting of Stockholders on September 24, 2026 with 99.6% of the votes cast voting in favor of the transaction, representing 81.4% of Iridium's outstanding shares of common stock entitled to vote. The transaction is expected to be completed by mid-2027, subject to the satisfaction of the remaining regulatory approvals and closing conditions.
"Last month's stockholder approval for Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium was an important milestone in creating a next generation space powerhouse," said Matt Desch, CEO, Iridium. Desch continued, "The combination of these two leading space companies will unlock new innovation in the space industry and accelerate our growth in critical space-based missions."
Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Iridium reported third quarter total revenue of $245.7 million, an 8% increase versus the comparable period of 2025. Service revenue grew 13% from the year-ago period, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon, and was 76% of total revenue for the third quarter of 2026.
Income from Operations
Net income was $106.9 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2026, as compared to net income of $37.1 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily the result of the $103.9 million gain related to the acquisition of Aireon, which is included in the Company's condensed consolidated statements starting in the third quarter. Operational EBITDA ("OEBITDA")(1) for the third quarter of 2026 was $135.6 million, as compared to $136.6 million for the prior-year period. The year-over-year change in OEBITDA was partly due to $4.5 million in higher expenses related to the previously disclosed change to pay annual incentive compensation solely in cash.
Subscribers
The Company ended the third quarter with 2,696,000 total billable subscribers, up from 2,542,000 for the year-ago period and 2,627,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Total billable subscribers grew 6% year-over-year, led by growth in commercial Internet of Things (IoT).
Business Highlights
Service – Commercial
Commercial service remained the largest part of Iridium's business, representing 65% of the Company's total revenue during the third quarter. Commercial service revenue was $159.9 million, up 16% from the comparable period last year, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon. Hosted payload and other data service revenue increased $22.7 million, or 121%, in the third quarter, primarily due to the acquisition of Aireon.
Service – U.S. Government
Government service revenue grew 2% to $27.6 million in the third quarter, reflecting contractual rate increases in the Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services contract (the "EMSS Contract") over the prior year. The U.S. government continues to be Iridium's largest single customer, representing 15% of service revenue and nearly all of the Company's engineering services and support business.
On September 11, 2026, the U.S. Space Force exercised its option to extend the EMSS Contract with Iridium through March 2027, at the same contractual rate. Iridium continues to expect a renewal of the EMSS Contract in 2027.
Equipment
Equipment revenue was $19.0 million in the third quarter, compared to $21.5 million in the prior-year quarter.
Engineering & Support
Engineering and support revenue was $39.2 million during the third quarter, compared to $40.2 million in the prior-year quarter.
Closing of Aireon Acquisition
Iridium completed its acquisition of Aireon, operator of the world's only space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) air traffic surveillance system, on July 2, 2026. The acquisition solidifies Iridium as the premier global provider of integrated communications, navigation, and surveillance solutions for airlines and air navigation service providers to enable a safer, more connected, and more efficient aviation ecosystem.
Capital Allocation
Capital expenditures were $27.4 million for the third quarter, including $2.2 million in capitalized interest. The Company ended the third quarter with gross debt of $2.2 billion, and a cash and cash equivalents balance of $97.9 million, for a net debt balance of $2.1 billion.
In conjunction with the Company's acquisition of Aireon, Iridium assumed Aireon's existing credit facility with an aggregate principal balance of $154.7 million with a scheduled maturity date of October 10, 2028 and deferred 50% of the purchase price in the form of a $183.4 million loan from the sellers, bearing no interest and maturing one year following closing. The Company also drew $100.0 million on the Company's revolving credit facility in advance of closing and $50.0 million remained outstanding as of September 30, 2026. The Company ended the third quarter with net leverage of 4.2 times trailing twelve months OEBITDA.
Iridium paid its third quarter dividend of $0.15 per share of common stock on September 30, 2026, resulting in a total payment of $16.3 million to stockholders. The Company's Board of Directors plans to increase the quarterly dividend to $0.16 per share starting with the fourth quarter 2026 dividend, which would result in a full-year dividend increase of 5.2%.
(1) Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Definitions
In addition to disclosing financial results that are determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP, the Company reports OEBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, as a supplemental measure to help investors evaluate the Company's fundamental operational performance. OEBITDA represents earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, gain (loss) on equity method investments, transaction related expenses, and share-based compensation expenses. The Company considers the loss on early extinguishment of debt to be financing-related costs associated with interest expense or amortization of financing fees, which by definition are excluded from OEBITDA. Management believes such charges are incidental to, but not reflective of, the Company's day-to-day operating performance. OEBITDA does not represent, and should not be considered, an alternative to U.S. GAAP measurements such as net income or loss. In addition, there is no standardized measurement of OEBITDA, and the Company's calculations thereof may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. The Company believes OEBITDA is a useful measure across time in evaluating its fundamental operational performance. Management also uses OEBITDA to manage the business, including in preparing its annual operating budget, debt covenant compliance, financial projections and compensation plans. The Company believes that OEBITDA is also useful to investors because similar measures are frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in their evaluation of companies in similar industries. OEBITDA does not include interest expense on borrowed money, the payment of income taxes, amortization of the Company's definite-lived intangible assets, or depreciation expense on the Company's capital assets, which are necessary elements of the Company's operations. Since OEBITDA does not account for these and other expenses, its utility as a measure of the Company's operating performance has material limitations. Due to these limitations, the Company's management does not view OEBITDA in isolation, but also uses other measurements, such as net income, revenues and operating profit, to measure operating performance. Please refer to the schedule below for a reconciliation of consolidated GAAP net income to OEBITDA and Iridium's Investor Relations webpage at www.iridium.com for a discussion and reconciliation of this and other non-GAAP financial measures.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Supplemental Reconciliation of GAAP Net Income to Operational EBITDA
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended September 30,
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
GAAP net income
$ 106,896
$ 37,127
$ 138,169
$ 89,507
Interest expense, net
26,788
22,593
65,400
67,169
Income tax expense
2,186
10,003
14,138
19,629
Depreciation and amortization
62,094
52,975
169,698
157,479
Share-based compensation
20,231
13,155
48,972
43,992
Transaction-related expenses(1)
21,294
—
36,318
—
(Gain) loss on equity method investments
(103,868)
734
(101,626)
2,242
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
(1)
Represents direct costs incurred in connection with the evaluation, negotiation, consummation, financing and integration of strategic transactions, including acquisitions, divestitures and investments, whether or not actually completed. These costs generally include legal and advisory fees, severance and other related costs.
About Iridium Communications Inc.
Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM) operates the world's only truly global mobile satellite network. It serves as a platform for innovation, enabling voice, data, and messaging, positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), and aircraft surveillance services anywhere on Earth. Through its satellite constellation and integrated capabilities like Aireon, the world's only space-based air traffic surveillance system, Iridium delivers services that support safety-focused operations across aviation, maritime, government, industrial, and consumer markets. The Company is a leader in satellite Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity and is advancing direct-to-device (D2D) communications based on open standards to expand access to satellite services.
Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Iridium innovates through an ecosystem of more than 500 technology and distribution partners, serving millions of customers worldwide. For more information, visit www.iridium.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements in this press release that are not purely historical facts may constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Iridium has based these statements on its current expectations and the information currently available to it. Forward-looking statements in this press release include statements regarding Iridium's strategy and growth opportunities; Iridium's acquisition by Rocket Lab and the benefits and expected timing and completion thereof; the expected benefits of Iridium's acquisition of Aireon; expectations related to the renewal of the EMSS Contract and the expected timing thereof; and plans regarding Iridium's quarterly dividends. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words "anticipates," "may," "can," "believes," "expects," "projects," "intends," "likely," "will," "to be" and other expressions that are predictions or indicate future events, trends or prospects. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance, or achievements of Iridium to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties regarding customer demand for Iridium's products and services, including demand from the U.S. government; Iridium's ability to maintain the health, capacity and content of its satellite constellation; the development of and market for Iridium's products and services; increased competition; risks related to Iridium's pending acquisition by Rocket Lab, including the risk that regulatory approvals or other closing conditions may not be obtained, satisfied or waived, that the proposed transaction may be delayed or not completed, that the anticipated benefits of the proposed transaction may not be realized, the impact of pending or potential litigation relating to the proposed transaction against Rocket Lab, Iridium or their respective directors, managers, or officers, including the effects of any outcomes related thereto, the risk that disruptions from the proposed transaction will harm Rocket Lab's or Iridium's businesses, including current plans and operations, or will otherwise divert management time from ongoing business operations on transaction-related issues, potential adverse reactions or changes to business relationships resulting from the announcement or completion of the proposed transaction, fluctuations in, and uncertainty as to the long-term value of, Rocket Lab or Iridium common stock (including as relating to the risk that any announcements related to the proposed transaction could have adverse effects on the market price of such stock), restrictions during the pendency of the proposed transaction that may impact Iridium's ability to pursue certain business opportunities or strategic transactions, and unexpected costs, charges or expenses resulting from the proposed transaction; risks related to Iridium's recent acquisition of Aireon; the risk that the EMSS Contract may not be renewed on as favorable terms or at all; changes in trade policy, including tariff rates, as well as general industry and economic conditions; and legal, governmental and technological factors. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements include those factors listed under the caption "Risk Factors" in the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on February 12, 2026, and the Company's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed with the SEC on October 20, 2026, as well as other filings Iridium makes with the SEC from time to time. There is no assurance that Iridium's expectations will be realized. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if Iridium's underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may differ materially from those expected, estimated or projected. Iridium's forward-looking statements are based on information available to it as of the date of this press release and speak only as of the date of this press release, and Iridium undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
Revenue
Service revenue
Commercial
$ 159,925
$ 138,333
Government
27,573
26,910
Total service revenue
187,498
165,243
Subscriber equipment
19,045
21,507
Engineering and support service
39,190
40,185
Total revenue
245,733
226,935
Operating expenses
Cost of services (exclusive of depreciation and amortization)
60,666
50,762
Cost of subscriber equipment sales
11,609
12,661
Research and development
4,810
4,944
Selling, general and administrative
74,936
35,508
Depreciation and amortization
62,094
52,975
Total operating expenses
214,115
156,850
Operating income
31,618
70,085
Other expense, net
Interest expense, net
(26,788)
(22,593)
Other income, net
384
372
Total other expense, net
(26,404)
(22,221)
Income before income taxes and gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
5,214
47,864
Income tax expense
(2,186)
(10,003)
Gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
103,868
(734)
Net income
$ 106,896
$ 37,127
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
Iridium Communications Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands)
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
Revenue
Service revenue
Commercial
$ 424,032
$ 394,695
Government
82,823
80,410
Total service revenue
506,855
475,105
Subscriber equipment
60,031
64,083
Engineering and support service
123,141
119,531
Total revenue
690,027
658,719
Operating expenses
Cost of services (exclusive of depreciation and amortization)
161,616
153,152
Cost of subscriber equipment sales
38,101
36,830
Research and development
16,514
14,640
Selling, general and administrative
187,759
115,887
Depreciation and amortization
169,698
157,479
Total operating expenses
573,688
477,988
Operating income
116,339
180,731
Other expense, net
Interest expense, net
(65,400)
(67,169)
Other expense, net
(258)
(2,184)
Total other expense, net
(65,658)
(69,353)
Income before income taxes and gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
50,681
111,378
Income tax expense
(14,138)
(19,629)
Gain (loss) on equity method investments, net
101,626
(2,242)
Net income
$ 138,169
$ 89,507
Operational EBITDA
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
Iridium Communications Inc.
Summary Revenue and OEBITDA Highlights
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
2026
2025
% Change
Revenue
Service revenue(1)
Commercial service revenue
Voice and data
$ 58,002
$ 59,930
(3) %
$ 173,822
$ 172,682
1 %
IoT data(2)
48,669
46,707
4 %
141,706
135,303
5 %
Broadband(3)
11,822
12,970
(9) %
35,718
38,570
(7) %
Hosted payload and other data service(4)
41,432
18,726
121 %
72,786
48,140
51 %
Total commercial service revenue
159,925
138,333
16 %
424,032
394,695
7 %
Government service revenue(5)
27,573
26,910
2 %
82,823
80,410
3 %
Total service revenue
187,498
165,243
13 %
506,855
475,105
7 %
Subscriber equipment
19,045
21,507
(11) %
60,031
64,083
(6) %
Engineering and support(6)
Commercial
317
1,852
(83) %
3,348
5,893
(43) %
Government
38,873
38,333
1 %
119,793
113,638
5 %
Total engineering and support
39,190
40,185
(2) %
123,141
119,531
3 %
Total revenue
$ 245,733
$ 226,935
8 %
$ 690,027
$ 658,719
5 %
Operational EBITDA
Operational EBITDA
$ 135,621
$ 136,587
(1) %
$ 371,069
$ 380,018
(2) %
Other
Capital expenditures(7)
$ 27,447
$ 21,535
$ 79,238
$ 66,791
Net debt(8)
$ 2,061,605
$ 1,736,188
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities
$ 97,853
$ 88,533
Gross debt(9)
$ 2,159,458
$ 1,824,721
Deferred financing costs
(20,130)
(14,878)
Debt, net
$ 2,139,328
$ 1,809,843
(1)
Service revenue consists primarily of subscription-based services which often generate a long-term recurring revenue stream from subscribers.
(2)
IoT data service provides a two-way short burst data transmission between Iridium's network and a telemetry unit, which may be located, for example, on a container in transit or a buoy monitoring oceanographic conditions.
(3)
Broadband is comprised of Iridium OpenPort® and Iridium Certus®.
(4)
Hosted payload and other data services consist primarily of services that do not have traditional billable subscribers, including hosting and other data services to Iridium's payload customers, Aireon (through the acquisition date of July 2, 2026), and L3Harris Technologies, Inc. After the Aireon acquisition date, hosted payload services also include revenue associated with Iridium's space-based ADS-B, air traffic surveillance system, and related data services. Other data services primarily include Iridium's positioning, navigation and timing service.
(5)
Government service revenue consists of voice and IoT data subscription-based services provided to agencies of the U.S. government through prime contracts.
(6)
Engineering and support includes engineering services for the Space Development Agency contract and to assist commercial customers in developing new technologies for use on Iridium's satellite system, as well as maintenance services to the U.S. government's dedicated gateway.
(7)
Capital expenditures based on cash spent in the respective period.
(8)
Net debt is calculated as gross debt less cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
(9)
Gross debt includes amounts outstanding under Iridium's Term Loan and Revolving Credit Facility, Aireon's existing credit facility assumed in the acquisition, and the loan from the Aireon sellers.
Iridium Communications Inc.
Subscriber Highlights
(In thousands, except ARPU)
As of September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
Billable Subscribers (1) (2)
Commercial
Voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
Voice and data
396
411
(4) %
IoT data
2,163
1,991
9 %
Broadband (3)
16.0
16.3
(2) %
Total commercial voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
2,575
2,418
6 %
Government
Voice and data and IoT data service
Voice and data
44
45
(2) %
IoT data
77
79
(2) %
Total government voice and data and IoT data service
121
124
(2) %
Total billable subscribers
2,696
2,542
6 %
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Net Billable Subscriber Additions
Commercial
Voice and data. IoT data and Broadband service
Voice and data
(6)
(4)
(6)
(4)
IoT data
72
67
165
104
Broadband
—
—
(0.1)
(0.3)
Total commercial voice and data, IoT data and Broadband service
66
63
159
100
Government
Voice and data and IoT data service
Voice and data
2
(4)
1
(17)
IoT data
1
—
(1)
—
Total government voice and data and IoT data service
3
(4)
—
(17)
Total net billable subscriber additions
69
59
159
83
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
2026
2025
% Change
2026
2025
% Change
ARPU (2) (4)
Commercial
Voice and data
$ 48
$ 48
— %
$ 48
$ 46
4 %
IoT data
$ 7.63
$ 7.95
(4) %
$ 7.57
$ 7.75
(2) %
Broadband
$ 246
$ 265
(7) %
$ 248
$ 261
(5) %
(1)
Subscribers as of the end of the respective period.
(2)
Billable subscriber and average monthly revenue per unit ("ARPU") data is not applicable for hosted payload and other data service revenue items and is excluded from presentation above.
(3)
Broadband is comprised of Iridium OpenPort and Iridium Certus.
(4)
ARPU is calculated by dividing revenue in the respective period by the average of the number of billable subscribers at the beginning of the period and the number of billable subscribers at the end of the period and then dividing the result by the number of months in the period.
Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB just delivered the news its shareholders least wanted to hear. On Oct. 14, the company announced that the inaugural launch of Neutron, its much-anticipated medium-lift rocket, has been moved from Q4 2026 to 2027. And the market's reaction was brutal. Shares of Rocket Lab fell almost 7% on Oct. 15, closing at $55.25 after dropping as much as 16% intraday.
For a stock that has ridden the promise of Neutron for years, this was a gut punch, and the stock’s technical positioning tells the story.
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Another Neutron Delay Raises the Stakes for Rocket LabRocket Lab Today
$50.84 -4.41 (-7.98%)
As of 10/16/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
$37.57▼
$151.00$102.05
To understand why investors reacted so harshly, you have to understand what Neutron represents. Electron, Rocket Lab's small-lift workhorse, has made the company the clear leader in dedicated small launch. But Neutron would open the door to the far larger, more lucrative medium-lift market, putting Rocket Lab in a position to compete for the biggest commercial and national-security missions. In that regard, Neutron is the single most important driver of the company's long-term growth story, and the entire bull case hinges on it getting to the pad.
The latest delay stems from a manufacturing issue: defects were found in the forward propellant dome of the rocket's first-stage tank. Rocket Lab says it has resolved the problem, but investigating and correcting the manufacturing process pushed the timeline back.
The trouble is, this isn't the first delay. Neutron's debut has been pushed back multiple times since its early 2021 announcement, and each slip chips away at investor patience and raises questions about execution. Compounding the concern, management has previously flagged that cash-flow positivity and overall profitability depend heavily on the timing of that first successful Neutron launch, so every delay pushes the company's path to profitability further out.
The Breakdown Below $60 Adds to Rocket Lab's Technical PressureThe chart makes the disappointment visually clear. The sell-off drove Rocket Lab decisively below the key $60 level, a zone that had been acting as major support. That $60 area marked the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the higher timeframe, and a confirmed break below that neckline is a classic bearish technical signal.
With that level now broken, the stock sits comfortably below all of its key moving averages and, for now, below that major $60 support. The technical structure has shifted from the coiled, base-building setup of recent months to something far more precarious. Until Rocket Lab can reclaim $60 and stabilize, the near-term momentum clearly favors the bears, and the broken neckline leaves the chart vulnerable to further downside.
Wall Street Cuts Targets But Remains Largely BullishRocket Lab Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$102.05
100.73% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 23 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$50.84High Forecast$150.00Average Forecast$102.05Low Forecast$60.00Rocket Lab Stock Forecast Details
The analyst community moved quickly after the news, and reactions were mixed. The biggest move came from KeyCorp, whose analyst cut the price target to $100 from $135 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Even after that sizable cut, the target still implied substantial upside from the stock's closing price.
Others largely held their ground. On the same day, TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $90 target, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its stance with a $122 target, and Roth Capital reaffirmed its Buy rating on the name. Not everyone was bullish, however. Weiss Ratings reiterated its Sell rating, reminding investors that not everyone is convinced the long-term story justifies the valuation, even after the pullback.
The overall takeaway is that analysts have largely maintained their positive ratings, even as some have substantially reduced their price targets. Still, the lone Sell rating underscores that the delay has given the skeptics fresh ammunition. Across all 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $104.05, still implying significant upside from current levels.
Neutron's Success Remains Rocket Lab's Biggest TestThe Neutron delay is a genuine setback, and the market was right to take it seriously. A repeatedly delayed catalyst, a broken technical level, and a further delayed path to profitability are not things investors can simply shrug off. Yet the longer-term picture is more nuanced than the one-day plunge suggests. Rocket Lab still boasts a record backlog of $2.36 billion reported in Q2, a thriving Electron business, a shareholder-approved Iridium acquisition that is still pending completion, and an analyst community that, despite trimming targets, remains broadly in its corner.
The company insists Neutron will be a game-changer, and the backlog supports that belief. But after yet another delay, the burden of proof has shifted squarely onto execution. For now, investors are left watching that $60 level and waiting for Rocket Lab to prove the rocket can ultimately fly.
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Rocket Lab získal od společnosti Synspective objednávku na dalších 20 startů rakety Electron, což je největší kontrakt na starty této rakety v historii firmy. Starty jsou plánovány na období 2028 až 2031.
How do you know when a space stock like Rocket Lab (RKLB -7.98%) is on a roll? Here's a hint.
Take a look at just a few of the headlines I've penned about Rocket Lab in 2026:
Just in Time for 2026, Rocket Lab Won Its Biggest Contract Ever (Jan. 4, $816 million to build 18 missile defense satellites for the U.S. Space Force.) Rocket Lab Just Won Its Biggest Contract Ever (March 28, $190 million to launch 20 HASTE suborbital rockets for the Department of Defense.) Rocket Lab Just Signed Its Biggest Contract Ever (May 11, a contract for five Neutron rocket launches and three Electrons.) Rocket Lab Wins One of Its Biggest Contracts Ever (Aug. 18, a $397 million Space Force contract for missile defense satellites.)
Image source: Rocket Lab.
Are my headlines unoriginal? Guilty as charged.
But are they accurate? Yes, because this rocket stock has a commendable habit of doing one "biggest-ever" thing after another, like clockwork! There are still two months to go in 2026, yet Rocket Lab has already notched notable victories four times this year. Depending on the benchmark you use, it's delivered four straight "biggest ever" deals in a row.
And now here's a fifth: Rocket Lab's latest win came on Sept. 30, when it said that Japanese customer Synspective has ordered another 20 rocket launches to more than triple the size of its Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite constellation.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
More rockets, please Rocket Lab confirms that this is its "largest-ever" deal for Electron rocket launches. (At least it is if you don't count the 20 HASTE launches, with HASTE being based on the Electron launch vehicle.) And certainly, Synspective's total order for 47 rocket launches makes that company Rocket Lab's biggest customer.
Rocket Lab declined to disclose the launch price. But assuming the company is holding firm with its most recent advertised price of $8.4 million per launch -- neither raising it in a market starved for launch capacity nor giving Synspective a large volume discount -- then 20 launches should yield $168 million in revenue for Rocket Lab.
Rocket Lab notes that the launches will run from 2028 to 2031, thus averaging about five launches and $42 million annually over those four years. It will also boost the company's total backlog of launches "beyond 100 missions" -- or more than $840 million in future revenue.
RKLB Rocket Lab$50.84-$4.41 (-7.98%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
What's next for Rocket Lab stock? And Rocket Lab's not slowing down. Still to come is the company's first launch of a Neutron reusable rocket, capable of delivering 13 tons of payload to low earth orbit (LEO).
With roughly 40 times the payload capacity of an Electron, and a price tag reported to be just six times that of an Electron launch, Neutron has the potential to transform Rocket Lab's business. A larger rocket will open new markets for Rocket Lab, serving customers needing to put larger satellites into orbit. A higher per-launch price should increase Rocket Lab's total revenue.
At the same time, a lower price per kilogram to LEO should help Rocket Lab break into the market for large satellite launches, winning market share among customers looking for prices below what SpaceX charges for Falcon 9.
What will that mean for the stock?
Not immediate profitability, unfortunately. For one thing, Rocket Lab announced Wednesday that it is postponing Neutron's first launch into 2027. For another, few analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence expect Neutron's arrival to turn Rocket Lab instantly profitable even once it does start launching. After all, Rocket Lab only expects to launch Neutron once in its first year of operation, then three times in its second, and five times in its third -- so it's going to be a slow ramp-up in launch cadence, and Electron will continue to dominate Rocket Lab launches for years.
The good news for investors is that thanks to the pending purchase of Iridium, Rocket Lab will probably turn profitable (and free cash flow positive, too) in 2027 -- with or without Neutron. Once that happens, it will become a whole lot easier to value Rocket Lab based on its profits and decide whether it's a stock worth buying.
Rocket Lab odložil první start rakety Neutron, původně plánovaný na čtvrté čtvrtletí roku 2026, na rok 2027. Akcie RKLB ve středečním obchodování po uzavření trhu klesly o 8,52 %.
Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) pushed the first launch of its Neutron rocket into 2027 on Wednesday, confirming a schedule setback after previously warning that a debut this year was becoming less likely.
The announcement leaves investors waiting longer for a rocket central to the company’s expansion into larger launch missions.
"Today we shared an update on Neutron’s development, including adjusting the schedule for flight one to 2027," Rocket Lab wrote on X.
RKLB stock is falling. See the chart and price action here. Warning Becomes a DelayThe update follows a shift in August, when Rocket Lab targeted getting Neutron to the launch pad in the fourth quarter rather than committing to launching during that period. The company had previously targeted an inaugural flight in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Reaching the launch pad and completing a maiden flight are distinct milestones in the development process.
"The window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing," CEO Peter Beck said in August, according to Reuters. Management was increasingly focused on preparing Neutron to support a faster cadence of missions after its debut.
Bigger Missions at StakeNeutron is a reusable, medium-lift rocket designed to help Rocket Lab compete for larger commercial satellite, civil-space and U.S. national-security missions. It also plays a role in the company’s own satellite plans.
Rocket Lab has been spending heavily on Neutron’s development, launch infrastructure and production preparations, while signing customers ahead of its debut. The revised timeline moves that first-flight milestone into next year, extending the wait for a demonstration of the new vehicle’s capabilities.
RKLB Stock Price Activity: Rocket Lab shares were down 8.52% at $54.60 during after-hours trading Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro. The stock had already fallen 7.85% during the regular session to close at $59.18.
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Akcionáři společnosti Iridium schválili její převzetí společností Rocket Lab za 8 mld. USD; transakce s protiplněním 27 USD v hotovosti a 27 USD v akciích Rocket Lab za akcii má být dokončena do poloviny roku 2027.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -3.67%) is on a roll. On Friday, Sept. 25, the American-New Zealand space stock launched its 97th rocket, its 94th successful rocket, its 18th launch (both absolute and successful) of 2026, and its 13th mission for key Japanese customer Synspective. As the company noted:
Electron launches for the 97th time and deploys the latest StriX satellite to space for @synspective from Launch Complex 1. Highlights from today's mission: ✅Launched on 1st attempt ✅18th mission of the year ✅13th launch for Synspective with 100% mission success https://t.co/oZUNlUuVrm
-- Rocket Lab (@RocketLab) September 26, 2026 And Rocket Lab isn't finished yet -- not even for this year.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
An indispensable partner Each time Rocket Lab launches a rocket for Synspective, it adds one more high-resolution, all-weather, day-and-night imaging synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite to Synspective's constellation, providing a capability that rival satellite companies such as Planet Labs and Starlink can't (yet) match. With 13 launches now conducted for the customer and Rocket Lab being Synspective's sole launch provider, Synspective's satellite fleet currently totals 13.
That's not even half the work Rocket Lab has promised to do, though. Announcing the successful launch last month, Rocket Lab pointed out that "another 14 launches remain on schedule to deliver the rest of Synspective's constellation to space by the end of the decade." Just five days later, Rocket Lab said that Synspective had hired it to launch 20 more satellites!
Add it up, and Rocket Lab is now barely a quarter through this contract. After launching 13 rockets for Synspective, it still has 34 more to launch.
It will take some time for Rocket Lab to work its way through all these missions. Nearer term, the company has a more modest goal: growing from 21 rocket launches in 2025 to (at least) 27 this year.
Rocket Lab hasn't stated a specific goal for the year, mind you. But according to NextSpaceflight.com, the company has nine more launches on its manifest this year. These include:
Three launches for BlackSky (BKSY -5.07%), adding Gen-3 Earth observation satellites to orbit. Three launches for iQPS, another big Japanese customer, which, like Synspective, is building an SAR satellite constellation. And one launch each for HawkEye 360, for Capella Space (yet another SAR launch), and for NASA (LOXSAT 1, demonstrating in-orbit refueling technologies). Exciting times for Rocket Lab With so many launches on schedule (and 20 more Synspective launches that aren't even scheduled yet), you might think that Rocket Lab's accelerating launch cadence is the biggest story for this space stock this year. After all, a jump from 21 launches last year to 27 this year implies a nearly 30% increase in revenue for Rocket Lab's launch services business -- or more if Rocket Lab adds even more launches between now and December.
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But the launch story is not the biggest news for the company.
The bigger story is that Rocket Lab's $8 billion proposed acquisition of satellite communications heavyweight Iridium Communications (IRDM -0.84%), announced back in June, is on track and making progress. On Sept. 24, Iridium shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve the buyout, under which Rocket Lab will acquire all Iridium shares outstanding for $27 in cash plus $27 in Rocket Lab stock.
Rocket Lab already had $2.3 billion socked away to pay for the cash portion of the purchase. On Sept. 15, it raised a further $1.9 billion through stock sales to ensure it would have the necessary $4 billion. Now, assuming regulators approve the merger, Rocket Lab should be clear to conclude the deal by mid-2027.
What happens then?
Well, Iridium will presumably become the core of a new satellite communications business for Rocket Lab. With this piece in place, Rocket Lab will finally be a space company that "designs, builds, launches, and operates its own constellations" in orbit -- much like SpaceX, albeit at a much more accessible market capitalization (and without the burdensome addition of an artificial intelligence business tacked onto it).
And the best news of all: Bringing Iridium in-house will also make Rocket Lab instantly profitable and free cash flow positive -- two things that SpaceX is not.
ARK Invest od konce srpna nakoupila téměř 1,3 milionu akcií společnosti Rocket Lab za více než 85 milionů USD a sází na raketu Neutron, která dosud neletěla.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has been buying Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.28%) on the way down. ARK's daily trade disclosures show three main waves since late August: 705,102 shares on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, 359,612 on Sept. 22, and 233,482 on Oct. 1.
That comes to almost 1.3 million shares, worth over $85 million at the stock's prices on those days. And the stock closed at less than half its late-May record close of about $150 on all of ARK's buying days. Shares of the growth stock trade around $68 as of this writing, about 55% off that high.
ARK's three funds now own around 3.2 million shares, worth about $220 million. As I see it, though, ARK is mostly betting on a rocket the company hasn't flown yet.
Image source: Getty Images.
ARK's launch-shortage betIn ARK's Oct. 5 newsletter, analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire spelled out the case. If SpaceX scales its massive Starship rocket toward around 10,000 launches a year by 2030 and retires its Falcon 9 workhorse by the end of the decade, they wrote, the U.S. would hit a launch bottleneck.
They pointed to Rocket Lab and private Stoke Space as companies that could take share -- if their medium-lift rockets pan out.
Rocket Lab's entry is Neutron, a reusable rocket designed to carry about 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit for commercial and U.S. government satellite constellations. Of course, it hasn't launched yet.
Management describes the same shortage.
"The truth is that if you want to book a launch now or especially after 2029, the options are extremely limited," CEO Sir Peter Beck said on the company's second-quarter earnings call in August.
Is demand showing up?Rocket Lab's own reporting shows the demand ARK is counting on. Highlighting how fast customers are signing on, total backlog reached a record $2.36 billion as of June 30, up 137% year over year. Launch backlog made up about $940 million of it, almost twice the $476 million at the end of 2025. Most of that rise came in the first quarter, when Rocket Lab signed 31 new Electron and HASTE contracts plus five dedicated Neutron launches.
And the bookings kept coming. A 20-launch Electron deal signed on Sept. 30 took Rocket Lab's launch backlog over 100 missions.
That said, Neutron's timeline is much less certain than its order book. Rocket Lab still aims to deliver the rocket to its launch pad in the fourth quarter. But its latest quarterly filing says the window for a launch before year-end is shrinking, and that timing hinges on qualification tests later this year. Kepler Communications' dedicated Neutron mission, booked in August, isn't scheduled before 2028. And Rocket Lab said that contract moved Neutron's manifest toward full capacity through the end of the decade.
Put another way, Neutron's problem looks less like finding customers and more like how soon, and how often, it can fly.
Shareholders are funding the waitMeanwhile, the cash burn is speeding up. Rocket Lab's second-quarter free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending) was negative $110 million, versus negative $77 million in the first quarter and around negative $55 million in the year-ago quarter.
Management also expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss to deepen to between $17 million and $23 million in the third quarter, from $8.8 million in the second quarter.
Rocket Lab can cover it. It held $2.1 billion in cash and $258 million in marketable securities as of June 30. By mid-September, it had also brought in another $1.94 billion by selling about 29.3 million shares, to help fund its pending purchase of Iridium Communications.
But a lot of that money came from selling stock, so current shareholders are paying for the wait through dilution.
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Including the new shares and its convertible preferred stock, a price near $68 gives Rocket Lab a valuation of about $46 billion.
Third-quarter revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million points to a yearly pace of about $1 billion, so the stock trades at about 44 times sales.
Is ARK right to keep buying? On demand, I think Rocket Lab's own numbers back ARK up. But ARK's payoff hinges on a shortage it dates to the end of the decade, and on a rocket whose first flight still has no fixed date. At about 44 times sales, the stock arguably already prices in Neutron working.
I'd want to see Neutron fly before buying shares at this price.
Rocket Lab zvýšil ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 tržby meziročně o 62 % na rekordních 235 milionů USD; klíčovým rizikem zůstává možné zpoždění prvního letu rakety Neutron.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.28%) has quickly become one of the more interesting names in the space race. With several growth drivers ahead, the company has many reasons to deliver huge upside. Below are three catalysts that could send the stock sharply higher by the end of 2027, along with the one risk that could hold it back.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rocket Lab is becoming a serious defense player One of the more interesting parts of the Rocket Lab investment case is its growing exposure to defense spending around space. For example, the company has already secured more than $1.3 billion of Space Development Agency awards to build and operate military satellite constellations.
The company is also developing satellites with internally manufactured components. That vertical integration, which means Rocket Lab builds many of its own parts rather than relying on outside suppliers, could be an edge. Rather than simply selling launches, it can offer governments a complete package covering satellites, payloads, and space infrastructure.
Plus, the company's Haste platform gives it exposure to hypersonic missile testing and research, while the new Ghost launch system is expected to begin operations from Alaska in 2027. With that, it is participating in several of the biggest themes in defense all at once: missile defense, satellite networks, and space infrastructure for national security.
But while defense is turning into a key growth driver, the company has an even bigger catalyst in the pipeline.
The Neutron could open a much larger market Rocket Lab's most exciting potential catalyst is still the Neutron, its reusable medium-lift rocket. Electron, the company's small-lift rocket, established the business as a credible launch provider, but the Neutron could move the company into a much larger and potentially more lucrative market. On top of that, it could even open doors to national security missions and launch major satellite constellations.
Management is already seeing demand even before the Neutron's launch. For example, the company has secured several commitments, including a major 2026 agreement covering five Neutron launches. And it signed a $397 million Space Force contract under which it will provide both spacecraft and launch services.
That said, a successful Neutron program wouldn't simply add another rocket to the lineup. Instead, it could allow the company to secure larger contracts. And it isn't the only thing working in Rocket Lab's favor right now.
The existing business keeps getting stronger Even before the Neutron takes flight, the company has been performing strongly. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached a record $235 million, up 62% year over year, while its backlog reached a record $2.4 billion. On top of that, it secured more than $1 billion of additional contracts across launch and space systems around the start of the third quarter.
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Launches of the Electron also continue to ramp up. For example, the Japanese company Synspective's September mission was its 96th overall Electron launch and 17th mission of 2026.
That's a third reason to be optimistic about Rocket Lab in 2027, and it provides a cushion in case the Neutron runs into problems. However, that cushion doesn't erase the single biggest risk to the investment case.
Neutron's first flight could still be at risk The biggest obstacle is execution around the Neutron. Rocket Lab was previously eyeing a 2026 debut, but by August, the company was targeting delivery of the rocket to the launchpad in the fourth quarter rather than committing to a first flight. As a result, that could signal a potential delay.
Still, that doesn't change the long-term thesis. In fact, the company has already proved that customers are willing to commit to the Neutron even before its first launch. But a successful first launch, followed by reliable operations and a consistent launch cadence, would be crucial for the stock to outperform in 2027.
That tension, between a core business that's firing on all cylinders and a rocket program still finding its footing, is exactly what investors need to weigh.
Is the stock a buy right now? The case for owning the stock is only getting stronger. Expanding defense contracts, a growing launch business, and the Neutron's first flight give the company several paths to growth. That said, the catch is that execution around Neutron still matters. Looking ahead, if Rocket Lab delivers on its ambitious road map, shares could realistically climb toward twice their current value by 2027.
Peter Beck has a bold plan to turn Rocket Lab into a self-launching tier-1 space power, but reaching the price target that would prove him right requires several high-stakes moves to land perfectly.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) has built a track record of building and flying rockets. Now its founder and CEO, Peter Beck, wants a much bigger role. When he announced the Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) acquisition, Beck said the deal sets up Rocket Lab as “a self-launching, tier-1 space power that will deliver critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.” Iridium stockholders approved the deal in September.
The stock has fallen behind the business. Shares are down 2.22% year to date at $68.21, even though Q2 revenue rose 62% to a record. Several things need to go right for Rocket Lab to reach $125 per share in 2027.
Wall Street Already Sees 56% Upside The average analyst target is $106.57, which implies 56% upside. Ratings stand at 4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 4 Hold and zero Sell. Rocket Lab has exceeded revenue estimates in each of the last 4 quarters. Q2 EPS of -$0.08 missed the -$0.0767 estimate, but that figure included $8.58M in acquisition costs. Backlog reached $2.36B, up 137%, and Q3 revenue guidance is $250M-$265M.
Here’s What It Takes to Reach $125 Rocket Lab isn’t profitable yet, so price-to-sales is the better metric. Shares trade at 56.7x trailing sales. At $125, that multiple would rise to roughly 104x. That’s a big premium, but it is close to the 93x investors pay for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). SpaceX posted $7.81B in Q2 revenue, and $648M of that came from launch services. Launch alone is a large market.
How Rocket Lab might reach $125.
Neutron’s debut: Neutron is Rocket Lab’s reusable medium-lift rocket, and its starting price of $50 million to $55 million puts it head-to-head with Falcon 9. CNBC reported that management expects boosters to fly 10 to 20 times each. Beck put it bluntly: “Neutron demand is just not a concern.” Defense spending: The FY2027 budget includes $17.9 billion for Golden Dome. Rocket Lab already holds an $816M Space Development Agency contract and a $397M Flatellite award. Iridium: Iridium generated more than $870 million in annual revenue, and the deal is expected to close in mid-2027. Margin gains: Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 41.5% from 36.9%. The adjusted EBITDA loss shrank to $8.8M from $27.6M. The Neutron launch can change the dynamic and make Rocket Lab a viable challenger to SpaceX. With the cost per launch expected to fall from around $130 million to $50 million as volume ramps higher, it would make Rocket Lab a profitable alternative to its rival.
Key risks: Neutron’s maiden year-end launch window is narrowing, and Rocket Lab raised $1.53B by selling stock in the first half of 2026, which dilutes existing shareholders.
Shares Topped $125 Within the Past Year Reaching $125 requires an 83% gain. The stock has already traded above that level: its 52-week range runs from $37.57 to $151, a swing of about 302%. With a beta of 2.938, Rocket Lab is likely to move far more than the overall market. Over five years, shares have gained 363.7%.
$125 Is a Stretch, but Within Reach Hitting $125 would take an 83% gain in 2027. Analysts already see 56% upside, the backlog keeps hitting records, and Neutron could start competing directly with SpaceX. Execution risk is real. Still, returns at this level are unlikely every year, and this is the model for how Rocket Lab could deliver outsized returns in 2027.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab dosáhl rekordního objemu nevyřízených zakázek ve výši 2,36 mld. USD, což představuje meziroční nárůst o 137 %. Stifel ponechal doporučení „Buy“ a cílovou cenu 150 USD, což implikuje růstový potenciál 108,6 %.
Rocket Lab sits more than 50% below its 52-week high after a brutal stretch of dilution and missed earnings, yet one Wall Street analyst just reiterated a target that implies the stock doubles from here. The question is whether a…
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $71.92. Wall Street’s average price target is $109.15, which implies 51.8% upside.
Rocket Lab flies the Electron rocket. It runs HASTE hypersonic test missions, builds spacecraft and components, and is finishing its Neutron medium-lift reusable rocket. Defense spending is the main draw. The Space Force budget requests $7.8 billion for space access. Rocket Lab is listed as a prime contractor on both national security launch programs.
The high end of the target range is even further away. Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen has a Street-high $150 target and a reiterated Buy rating. That target implies 108.6% upside, so he expects the stock to more than double.
Dilution and the Iridium Deal Pulled Rocket Lab Off Its Highs Dilution did the most damage. Rocket Lab sold $1.08 billion of stock through its at-the-market program in the second quarter alone. Part of that money is for the Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) acquisition, which is a cash and stock transaction. Management also guided the basic share count to about 641 million. Shares fell 13.78% over three months and now sit 52.4% below the 52-week high of $151.
The earnings report added pressure. Revenue of $234.07M rose 62.0% and beat estimates. The GAAP loss of $0.08 per share missed the -$0.0767 estimate, partly due to $8.58M in deal costs. Guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA loss of $17M to $23M, larger than the quarter’s $8.8 million. Management said the Neutron launch window this year is narrowing. A beta of 2.938 means swings tend to be larger than the market’s.
Analysts Are Banking on Neutron and a $2.36 Billion Backlog Analysts remain bullish. Four rate the stock Strong Buy, 12 rate it Buy, four rate it Hold, and none rate it Sell. Stifel’s thesis rests on three points. Neutron could compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9; Space Systems brings in more than two-thirds of revenue; defense contracts provide long-term backlog visibility.
Backlog grew 137% to a record $2.36 billion, with about 45.5% converting to revenue within 12 months. Recent wins include a $397M Space Force Flatellite contract and a $266 million award for up to 18 missile-defense launches. Neutron targets $50 to $55 million per launch. The CEO said, “We have absolutely zero issues in selling full price Neutrons pre-test flights.”
The timeline is weak. Management linked positive free cash flow to Neutron’s first successful launch, and Neutron’s debut already slipped to Q4 2026. Iridium brings more than $870 million in annual revenue but closes mid-2027. The stock trades at 62.4 times sales.
Space Peers Fell Too, and Planet Labs Shows the Bigger Gap Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trade at $60.65, down 8.27% over the past month and 16.49% year to date. Its $77.94 target implies 28.5% upside. Ratings are conservative with one Strong Buy, four Buy, seven Hold, one Sell and one Strong Sell.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) trades at $17.75 and is down 9.99% year to date. Its $33.40 target implies 88.2% upside. Ratings include one Strong Buy, six Buy, three Hold and one Sell. Its gap is larger than Rocket Lab’s.
Planet Labs has the biggest consensus upside in the group, while Rocket Lab sits in the middle, and only Stifel’s target puts it in doubling territory. Price targets are opinions and come with no guarantee for any of these stocks.
Rocket Lab Beats Its Peers but Lags the S&P 500 At $71.92, Rocket Lab has 51.8% upside to the $109.15 consensus target. The stock bounced 11.92% over the past month but dropped 4.18% in its most recent trading day.
Rocket Lab has gained 3.1% so far this year, and the S&P 500 is up 13.98%. The $69.94 50-day average sits below the $81.50 200-day average, so the longer-term trend still points down.
Neutron’s First Flight Decides Whether $150 Is Realistic The bull case strengthens if Neutron reaches the pad on schedule, flies smoothly and converts that 90+ mission backlog into higher-priced revenue. Positive cash flow comes into view and Iridium adds recurring revenue. If Neutron slips again, the downside case strengthens. Rocket Lab would then be funding Neutron, three acquisitions and ongoing burn, likely through more share issuance.
I are bullish. The backlog and defense demand back up the consensus target, but until Neutron flies, $109.15 is a more realistic marker than $150.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The final frontier may just become the next great economic engine for the global economy. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.51%) is increasing its launch cadence at a rapid clip, with satellites and other orbital technologies taking over the night sky. And yet, with a market cap of $2.3 trillion, SpaceX is trading at a premium, even relative to the space economy's growth potential.
One space stock that may be undervalued is Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.18%). Morgan Stanley has a $105 price target on the stock, which is currently trading at $75. Here's why Rocket Lab has such growth potential, and whether it is a buy right now.
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Expansive launch contracts SpaceX and Blue Origin may get all the headlines, but Rocket Lab is making a ton of progress as another commercial launch player. It currently has the small Electron rocket, which has won niche contracts for its precision in launch services. Rocket Lab just signed a 20-mission contract with Synspective, its largest contract ever, which will run through 2031.
These long-term deals are why Rocket Lab boasts an order backlog of $2.36 billion, or more than twice its current revenue.
To better compete with SpaceX, Rocket Lab will need to secure deals for its larger Neutron rocket, which is currently undergoing testing. Management has touted tentative deals for the Neutron, which will have a much larger payload capacity than the Electron, but it needs to prove the rocket can reliably reach orbit for customers.
Still, Rocket Lab has one of the best safety track records in the space industry, and is likely to grow even faster once it gets the Neutron regularly making trips to space.
Image source: Getty Images.
Complementary services Rocket Lab may be undervalued for its launch capabilities, but its real kicker may be the little-discussed push into space services.
These include its recent acquisition of Iridium Communications, which is poised to close soon. Iridium gives Rocket Lab the capability to build its own satellite internet service to compete with SpaceX, and it could be the only competitor with launch and satellite capabilities comparable to SpaceX's.
If Rocket Lab can successfully move into this subsector of the space economy, it has major growth potential from here. Not only can it generate revenue by increasing its launch frequency with the Electron and Neutron, but it can also begin sending its own satellites into orbit. SpaceX generates more than $10 billion in trailing revenue from Starlink alone, while Rocket Lab's consolidated sales were $769 million.
Is Rocket Lab stock a buy? Compared to SpaceX's $2.2 trillion market cap, Rocket Lab's $43.5 billion market cap looks rather small. However, this does not mean Rocket Lab is automatically a buy; it only means investors are trading it at a large discount to SpaceX at the moment.
With trailing revenue of $769 million, Rocket Lab has a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) near 50, which makes it a very expensive stock compared to the broad market indexes. Plus, it is not profitable at the moment and is burning through cash.
To believe Rocket Lab is a buy at these prices, an investor needs to believe there is a long runway for growth through launches, as well as a successful move into space services such as satellite internet. This is not a stock you buy and hope it goes up next year, but one you buy and hold for more than a decade. Rocket Lab has a strong track record of growth in the space economy, but it will need to maintain this momentum during the next 10 years and beyond to continue delivering gains for shareholders.
Rocket Lab just pulled off a rare feat by leaving the broader space sector in the dust, but three simultaneous high-stakes bets now sit between the company and the future its stock price already assumes.
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Space stocks split widely over the past month. Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) landed on the strong side alongside shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). However, shares of satellite network builder AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) barely budged over the same stretch. That split points to company-specific stories behind the rally, which makes the move in Rocket Lab stock worth a closer look.
Rocket Lab stock is up 17% over the past month to $75.31. Similarly, SpaceX stock gained 17% over the past month to $172.72, leaving the two names moving together.
In contrast, AST SpaceMobile stock is up just 1% over the past month to $62.94, representing a fraction of the gains in Rocket Lab and SpaceX shares.
For sector context, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 1% over the past month. Checking on the broader market, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is also up 1% over the past month. With the space fund and the broad market both posting modest gains, the run in Rocket Lab and SpaceX shares stands out as a two-company event.
Iridium Deal Could Remake Rocket Lab Rocket Lab has announced a deal to acquire Iridium Communications, a move that would make the company vertically integrated. Under that structure, Rocket Lab could design, build, launch and then operate its own satellite constellations delivering communications services globally. That combination would place Rocket Lab among the few space companies controlling every step from the factory floor to the paying customer.
Iridium follows two smaller acquisitions by Rocket Lab. The company bought Mynaric for laser communications and Motiv for space robotics, adding capabilities that feed directly into the spacecraft it builds. Each deal moves Rocket Lab closer to running a full-service space operation.
How Rocket Lab Makes Money Rocket Lab flies the Electron small-lift rocket and the HASTE suborbital vehicle, and the company is developing the medium-lift reusable Neutron rocket. Satellites and spacecraft components built by Rocket Lab have flown on more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit and in deep-space exploration. Such a record gives Rocket Lab proven flight heritage across both launch and hardware.
Revenue at Rocket Lab comes from products, meaning spacecraft and hardware, and from services, meaning launch, with commercial operators and major defense clients, including the U.S. Space Force, making up its customer base. Owning Iridium would add recurring fees from a satellite network that bills customers continuously, a sharp shift for a business currently paid once per launch.
Three Hard Jobs at Once Execution is the main risk for Rocket Lab. The company is simultaneously buying a satellite operator in Iridium, building the Neutron rocket and folding Mynaric and Motiv into its operations, while any one of those jobs could stretch a management team and three together leave little room for delays.
Rocket Lab stock already reflects a version of events in which all three efforts work. After a 17% climb over the past month, Rocket Lab shares carry less buffer if Neutron is delayed or the Iridium integration proves costly. A blow on any front could weigh on the stock more heavily now than it would have a month ago.
What to Watch Next Updates on the Iridium deal and Neutron development are worth watching, since both shape whether Rocket Lab becomes the vertically integrated operator its acquisitions point toward. Progress on either front carries more weight for Rocket Lab now that the stock has priced in a good outcome.
Investors weighing their exposure should adjust their holdings carefully given that Rocket Lab is managing an acquisition, a new rocket and two integrations at once. Share positions should reflect both the strength of the Rocket Lab plan and the risk that one of those three efforts slips up.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways RKLB is broadening Space Systems with spacecraft, components and mission solutions across multiple orbits.RKLB's Space Systems growth is driven by spacecraft manufacturing and acquisitions.RKLB's IMM Apex solar cell expands its space-power offerings with higher efficiency and lower cell mass. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) shares have risen 13.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense Equipment industry’s decline of 5%. The company is driving growth by expanding its Space Systems portfolio, scaling spacecraft manufacturing and strengthening its vertically integrated capabilities.
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Meanwhile, stocks like Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW - Free Report) and TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG - Free Report) have underperformed the industry during the same period. Shares of CW and TDG have fallen 4.6% and 6%, respectively.
With RKLB shares gaining over the past month, investors may have positive views. Let’s examine the factors and assess the stock’s investment prospects to make an informed decision.
Factors Boosting RKLB Stock's GrowthRocket Lab is expanding its Space Systems business through a broad portfolio of spacecraft, spacecraft components and mission solutions. Its offerings include solar power solutions, composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, radios, separation systems, batteries and optical systems, with spacecraft platforms designed for low Earth orbit, medium Earth orbit, geosynchronous orbit and interplanetary missions. The company’s vertical integration and ability to manufacture critical spacecraft components for both its platforms and the broader merchant market provide multiple avenues to address growing demand across the space economy.
RKLB delivered strong financial growth in the second quarter of 2026, with total revenues rising 62% year over year to $234.1 million. Space Systems revenues increased 94% to $189.5 million, primarily driven by spacecraft manufacturing growth and acquisitions, while segment gross profit more than doubled to $65.5 million. Rocket Lab ended June with $2.36 billion in backlog, providing meaningful visibility into future revenues.
In September 2026, Rocket Lab announced the production release of IMM Apex, its next-generation solar cell designed to improve spacecraft power performance while reducing reliance on germanium. The product delivers 31.5% beginning-of-life efficiency with 40% lower cell mass and serves as a mechanical and electrical drop-in replacement for heritage germanium-based cells, potentially reducing customer retooling needs. With more than a decade of IMM technology heritage and above 1,100 satellites powered by Rocket Lab solar products, IMM Apex could further strengthen its position in the space power market.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for RKLB’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a rise of 50% over the past 60 days.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Curtiss-Wright’s 2026 EPS calls for a jump of 0.33% in the past 60 days. The estimate for TransDigm Group’s fiscal 2026 EPS implies an increase of 3.36% over the same period.
Debt Position of RKLBCurrently, Rocket Lab’s total debt to capital is 0.83%, lower than the industry’s average of 61.13%. It indicates that the company can run its business efficiently with much lower debt levels than its industry peers.
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Liquidity Position of RKLBRKLB has a current ratio of 5.48 compared with its industry’s average of 2.06. The ratio, being more than one, indicates that RKLB possesses sufficient capital to pay off its short-term debt obligations.
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Its industry peers, Curtiss-Wright and TransDigm Group, also maintain current ratios above one. CW has a current ratio of 1.6, while TDG holds 3.02.
RKLB Stock Trades at a PremiumRocket Lab is currently trading at 35.25X, a premium compared to its industry’s 7.04X on a forward 12-month Price/Sales basis.
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What Should an Investor Do?Rocket Lab is broadening its growth opportunities through a diverse Space Systems portfolio and continued innovation in spacecraft technologies. The rollout of IMM Apex, alongside its established solar and spacecraft component capabilities, could help the company capture increasing demand for advanced space infrastructure.
Given RKLB’s strong share price performance, improving earnings estimates, lower debt levels and healthy liquidity position, investors may consider including this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock in their portfolios at current levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab posiluje dodavatelský řetězec využíváním více zdrojů tam, kde je to možné, a vytvářením zásob určitých vstupů od jediného dodavatele, zejména položek s dlouhou dodací lhůtou, aby podpořil růst výroby raket, kosmických lodí a komponentů.
Key Takeaways RKLB uses supplier validation, quality controls and delivery criteria to support reliable sourcing.RKLB uses multiple sourcing where possible and maintains buffer stock for certain sole-source inputs.RKLB manages supply-chain operations across rocket propulsion, avionics, batteries and space solar cells. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) is strengthening its supply-chain capabilities as it expands its launch services, spacecraft and spacecraft component businesses. The company maintains a highly integrated supply chain that supports the design and manufacture of components and subsystems for its launch vehicles and spacecraft. Managing this supply network effectively is important as Rocket Lab operates across multiple products, manufacturing locations and markets.
Rocket Lab sources raw materials, components, subsystems, capital equipment and other supplies from suppliers it considers reputable and reliable. Its supplier selection process considers engineering validation, quality, cost, delivery and lead time, while a dedicated quality management team helps ensure that supplied components meet required standards. This approach could assist the company in maintaining consistency across its manufacturing and delivery activities.
RKLB also uses multiple sourcing where possible but recognizes that some inputs and services are available from a sole source. To manage this exposure, Rocket Lab carries increased buffer stock in certain sole-source situations, particularly for long-lead items. Such measures could provide additional protection against supplier delays and help support production requirements when replacement sources cannot be developed quickly.
Supply-chain management could become increasingly important as Rocket Lab expands its range of products and services. The company operates manufacturing activities across the United States and New Zealand, including rocket propulsion, avionics, composite manufacturing, battery systems and space solar cell production. Maintaining reliable access to materials and components across these operations could help Rocket Lab support customer deliveries and manage future business growth.
Companies Strengthening Aerospace Supply-Chain ResilienceManaging supplier dependencies and long-lead components is important for aerospace companies operating complex manufacturing programs. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) and Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) also rely on structured supply-chain management to support their aerospace and defense manufacturing activities.
Northrop Grumman manages suppliers and production inputs across complex aerospace and defense programs, with supply-chain coordination supporting the availability of components and materials required for program execution.
Lockheed Martin manages extensive supplier networks across its aerospace and defense businesses, with supply-chain planning helping support production schedules, component availability and delivery requirements for complex programs.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share suggests year-over-year growth of 81.48% and 240%, respectively.
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RKLB Stock Is Trading at a PremiumRocket Lab is trading at a premium relative to the industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 35.71X compared with the industry average of 7.05X.
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RKLB Stock Price PerformanceOver the past year, RKLB shares have rallied 26.4% against the industry’s 11.4% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RKLB’s Zacks RankRocket Lab currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab uzavřel se Synspective kontrakt na 20 dalších startů Electronu, největší komerční deal v historii této rakety. Objem nevyřízených zakázek firmy tím přesáhl 100 misí.
Rocket Lab (RKLB +4.91%) signed a deal for 20 new Electron launches with Japanese radar-satellite operator Synspective late on Sept. 30. The company called it the largest commercial launch contract for Electron in its history. It also boosts Synspective's total to 47 Electron missions, the most of any Rocket Lab launch customer.
And the order took the company's launch backlog beyond 100 missions, up from over 70 contracted missions in early May and 90-plus in August.
The growth stock has risen about 6% since the news, to roughly $74 as I write. Two days before the deal, SpaceX's huge Starship rocket first reached orbit -- another reason some investors worry about Rocket Lab's launch business.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Synspective keeps booking years aheadSynspective makes StriX satellites, which use radar to image the ground through clouds and at night. It was one of Electron's first customers, and the relationship has grown fast.
When the two companies signed a 10-launch deal in September 2025, Synspective had six StriX satellites in orbit and 21 more Electron missions booked. After a Sept. 26 launch from New Zealand, it now has 13 of its originally planned 30 satellites up, with 34 launches left. The 20 new missions are scheduled yearly from 2028 through 2031.
In other words, Synspective flew seven more missions in a year and still added to its order.
"Securing another 20 dedicated launches now gives us long-term certainty for our constellation expansion," Synspective founder and CEO Motoyuki Arai said in Rocket Lab's announcement.
I'd say that's the key to Electron's appeal. A customer booking rides years ahead is buying a launch on its own schedule, to its own orbit, on a rocket sized for its satellites. A seat on a far bigger SpaceX rocket is a different product, which may explain why Electron keeps winning repeat customers.
How long would 100 missions take?Rocket Lab launched 16 Electron rockets in 2024 and a record 21 in 2025. It launched 12 more in the first half of 2026, so it's headed for another record if the second half keeps up.
At last year's rate, a 100-mission backlog would take around five years to fly. Of course, that's a rough estimate, because some of the count is booked on Neutron, the bigger reusable rocket that hasn't launched yet.
Still, the direction's easy to see. The count climbed by around 30 missions in under five months, even as Electron kept flying.
The economics have moved the right way, too. Highlighting the improvement, Rocket Lab's revenue per launch was $9.2 million in the first half of 2026, versus $7.5 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, cost per launch dropped to $4.9 million from $5.3 million. Management credits customer mix and mission complexity for the rise, so it's not a clean price hike.
But a launch book that runs years ahead could give Rocket Lab less reason to discount.
The stock still looks overpricedRocket Lab didn't say what Synspective is paying. But if the 20 launches price anywhere near the first half's average, they'd be worth roughly $180 million spread across four years, starting in 2028. That's around $45 million a year, against the $250 million to $265 million in revenue management expects for the third quarter alone.
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Launch is also the smaller piece of the business. In the second quarter, launch services revenue fell 4% to $44.6 million compared to the year-ago quarter, mainly because of the timing of revenue recognition. That was under a fifth of Rocket Lab's $234 million in total revenue.
Meanwhile, a share price around $74 values Rocket Lab at about $50 billion, counting its convertible preferred shares and September's stock sale. Rocket Lab still loses money (its second-quarter net loss was $49 million, down from $66 million a year before), so a price-to-earnings ratio doesn't apply. Instead, the stock trades at almost 50 times sales, based on the annual revenue pace of about $1 billion that its third-quarter guidance implies. And a big chunk of Rocket Lab's launch growth from here rides on Neutron, which the company said in August it aims to deliver to its launch pad this quarter.
Does a backlog of over 100 missions change the case against the stock? Not for me. It makes Electron's next several years unusually easy to see, and it suggests small-satellite operators still want a dedicated ride even while SpaceX's capacity grows. But this deal adds modest revenue that won't come in until 2028, and the valuation already assumes years of growth far beyond Electron. I'd want a much lower price before buying the stock.
SpaceX poprvé dostal Starship na oběžnou dráhu a vypustil 26 satelitů V3 Starlink, i když misi ukončila porucha motoru. Pro Rocket Lab to zvyšuje tlak na růst launchového byznysu, hlavně kvůli Neutronu, který ještě neletěl.
SpaceX (SPCX +1.08%) finally got Starship into orbit. On Monday, Sept. 28, the huge rocket's upper stage reached orbit for the first time and released 26 of the company's next-generation V3 Starlink satellites. An engine issue ended the mission early.
This might look like bad news for Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.03%). The space company is spending a lot on Neutron, a reusable rocket designed to compete for the sort of launch work SpaceX's Falcon 9 does now. And shares of the growth stock trade near $70 as I write, under half the 52-week high of $151.
Does a working Starship threaten Rocket Lab? I think it does, but mainly through Neutron, which hasn't flown yet.
Image source: Getty Images.
Starship's first customer is SpaceXA full Starship load of V3 satellites is designed to add as much capacity to Starlink as around 20 Falcon 9 flights of the smaller satellites SpaceX launches now. The flight carried 26 of the up to 60 V3 satellites SpaceX eventually plans to fly on every mission.
Most of SpaceX's launches already go to Starlink. The company flew 78 launches in the first half of 2026, and 61 of those were internal launches, mainly for Starlink. Just 17 were customer launches, down from 21 in the first half of 2025.
Put simply, Starship's job for now is building out SpaceX's own network.
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Launch is the smaller half of Rocket LabRocket Lab is a satellite company as much as a rocket company.
Launch services brought in around $108 million of its $434 million in first-half revenue, or about 25% -- a falling share, down from about 33% for all of 2025. Space systems (spacecraft, satellite components, and related services) made up the rest. That business grew 76% from the first half of 2025, helped by acquisitions, much faster than launch revenue's 32% rise. And around $1.4 billion of the company's $2.36 billion backlog at the end of June was linked to space systems.
Most of that doesn't rely on beating SpaceX to a launch contract.
The launch backlog, though, is growing faster. It almost doubled over six months: around $476 million when 2025 ended, $921 million by March 31, and $940 million by June 30. Launch now makes up 40% of the total backlog, up from about 26% at the start of the year.
Most of the rise was in the first quarter, when Rocket Lab signed five new dedicated Neutron launches and said it sold more launches than in all of 2025.
Rocket Lab doesn't say how much of the backlog is tied to Neutron. But some of the launch growth investors are banking on rides on a rocket that hasn't flown.
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Where could Starship hurt?Neutron is a medium-lift rocket built to carry around 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit in its reusable version. Rocket Lab says it's tailored for commercial and U.S. government constellation launches. That pits it against Falcon 9 much more than Starship.
Some of Neutron's demand also comes bundled with spacecraft Rocket Lab makes itself. The U.S. Space Force awarded the company a $397 million contract (including options) to build Flatellite spacecraft that will launch on Neutron. A customer buying the satellites and the ride together is arguably tougher for a rival rocket to lure away.
I think the bigger risk is indirect. If Starship takes over Starlink deployment, Falcon 9 flights now used for SpaceX's own satellites might free up for paying customers -- the same constellation operators Neutron is after. More available Falcon 9 capacity may pressure launch prices right as Neutron tries to break in.
Of course, Starship isn't flying Starlink on a regular schedule yet, and SpaceX is still working toward the full and rapid reusability it's relying on to lower launch costs.
But Neutron isn't in the market yet, either. Rocket Lab said in August that it still aims to deliver the rocket to its pad in the fourth quarter, though the chance of a first launch before the end of 2026 is fading.
Still, is Starship a threat to Rocket Lab stock? I'd say yes, even though it hardly affects the space systems business that pays most of Rocket Lab's bills today. The pressure falls on launch growth, and launch growth is a big part of what investors are paying for in the stock's valuation.
At around $70 a share, Rocket Lab trades at over 40 times its annualized revenue. Its free cash flow was also negative by about $188 million in the first half. Plus, the company's next growth engine might face a cheaper, more available Falcon 9 by the time it flies. I think the stock's too pricey to own through that uncertainty.
Rocket Lab podepsal s japonskou společností Synspective smlouvu na 20 misí Electron, největší komerční kontrakt pro tento nosič v historii firmy. Celkem tak má pro Synspective 47 misí.
LONG BEACH, Calif., Sept. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) (“Rocket Lab” or the “Company”), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced it has signed a multi-year launch agreement for 20 new Electron missions with Tokyo-based Earth observation company Synspective.
The contract is the largest commercial launch contract for Electron in Rocket Lab’s history and brings the total number of Electron missions for Synspective to 47 – the most of any Rocket Lab launch customer. The remaining terms of the deal are undisclosed.
Rocket Lab will launch 20 StriX synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1. The missions are scheduled to take place annually from 2028 through 2031, accelerating Synspective’s goal to build a comprehensive satellite constellation capable of imaging any location on Earth within hours, day or night, and through any weather conditions.
Sir Peter Beck, Rocket Lab founder and CEO, says: “When constellation builders want control over their destiny, they come to Rocket Lab. Synspective was one of Electron’s earliest customers and together we have proven that tailored, dedicated launch is the fastest and most reliable path to scaling small satellite constellations. Signing twenty launches in a single deal is a massive vote of confidence not just in Electron, but in the launch cadence, mission reliability, and orbital precision that Rocket Lab consistently delivers.”
Dr. Motoyuki Arai, Synspective founder and CEO, says: "Electron's precision and reliability have played a central role in steadily scaling our StriX constellation. Through this process, our partnership has grown into something built not only on technical progress but on a deep, team-level trust between us. On behalf of Synspective, I would like to once again express our gratitude for the quality of service, the flexibility, and the truly excellent team behind it. Securing another 20 dedicated launches now gives us long-term certainty for our constellation expansion - a powerful booster toward building the infrastructure needed for a resilient future. We look forward to continuing this journey together."
Today’s launch agreement is the latest in a wave of multi-launch contracts awarded to Rocket Lab this year, pushing the Company’s launch backlog beyond 100 missions. At a time when global launch capacity is bottlenecked and constellation operators face mounting pressure on tight timelines to deploy and replenish their constellations, Rocket Lab stands apart as the proven alternative delivering unmatched reliability and rapid operational cadence.
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, backlog, expected revenue, and anticipated mission execution, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
Úspěch Starshipu ukázal levnější cestu na oběžnou dráhu, ale pro menší zákazníky zůstává prostor pro Rocket Lab a Firefly díky dedikovaným letům na konkrétní oběžnou dráhu.
On its 14th test flight Monday, SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. With one engine out, SpaceX cut the mission short and brought Starship down in a controlled splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.
SPCX stock is up. See the real-time price action here. Regular service is next. SpaceX wants Starship flying routinely later this year, and CEO Elon Musk plans to launch Starlink satellites 60 at a time once it does.
Andrew Bonwick, VP of Product Development at Relm, said Starship is “expected to bring more than four times the mass to orbit compared to other large rockets, especially Falcon 9.”
Big capacity has a limit, though. Bonwick says that leaves room for smaller launch companies.
One Rocket, One OrbitStarship’s size comes with a tradeoff.
“Each Starship flight will only deliver to one orbit or a set of orbits,” Bonwick said. He called this “great for mega-constellations and big payloads, such as space stations (StarLab, VAST) and data centers, which can take up the whole load.”
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Smaller customers don’t get to choose. “However, smaller operators in LEO will need to compromise on their orbits or get lucky with the launch,” he said. Bonwick expects demand for other launch options.
“This leaves plenty of room for other operators, where customers can pay more to get delivered where and when they want on a smaller vehicle,” he said.
4 Companies Stand To Benefit Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) sells dedicated rides on its smaller Electron rockets so each customer’s satellite goes to the orbit it picks. Demand looks strong — Rocket Lab ended the second quarter with a $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% from a year earlier. Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) offers the same dedicated ride on its Alpha rocket. “Launch demand is the most constrained I’ve ever seen,” CEO Jason Kim told CNBC in August. Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC) has exposure through Firefly. The defense contractor invested $50 million in the company to help fund Eclipse, a medium-lift rocket the two companies developed together. Voyager Technologies Inc. (NYSE:VOYG) sits on the other side of the trade. Its Starlab station is the kind of full-load cargo Bonwick says fits SpaceX’s Starship best. Dedicated Launch Is ScarceSmall rockets are still hard to book and launch slots are being reserved one to two years ahead with few companies serving the market.
“A small rocket acts like an orbit-on-demand taxi,” Ujjwal Chaudhry, a partner at Analysys Mason, told CNBC. His firm valued the market for launches under 1,000 kilograms at $5 billion in 2025.
Private rivals are adding capacity. Stoke Space said its Nova Pathfinder rocket is fully booked “for the next couple years,” and it plans to keep the rocket for dedicated missions.
Monday’s successful launch proved Starship is now the cheapest ride to orbit, but Bonwick’s view suggests some customers will still pay more to pick their own orbit.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was up 1.97% to $148.34 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data from Benzinga Pro.
Rocket Lab dokončila financování akvizice satelitní komunikační společnosti Iridium za 8 miliard USD a získala souhlas od přibližně 99,6 % akcionářů. Zároveň podala protest proti zakázce NASA za 700 milionů USD pro Blue Origin.
Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares are fluctuating Tuesday morning as investors continue to digest an $8 billion acquisition milestone, the company’s launch cadence and aggressive maneuvering for government contracts.
Here’s what investors need to know.
Rocket Lab stock is showing upward movement. What’s pushing RKLB stock higher? Iridium Acquisition and De-risked Capital StructureOn Sept. 15, Rocket Lab announced it had fully funded its $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications giant Iridium, a process that included the completion of a massive $1.94 billion at-the-market equity offering. Crucially, this cash raise allowed Rocket Lab to successfully terminate a massive $3.6 billion senior secured bridge facility, de-risking the company’s capital structure ahead of the targeted mid-2027 close.
Shortly after, on Sept. 24, the transaction cleared a critical hurdle when approximately 99.6% of Iridium stockholders officially approved the buyout, keeping the merger firmly on track.
NASA Contract Protest and Statutory StayIn parallel, management is defending its footing in the deep-space sector. On Sept. 11, Rocket Lab formally protested NASA’s decision to award a highly coveted $700 million Mars Telecommunications Network contract to rival Blue Origin.
This filing with the Government Accountability Office triggered an automatic statutory stay, legally forcing Blue Origin to halt work on the Mars orbiter contract until the dispute is resolved. The GAO has until mid-December 2026 to issue a ruling.
Aggressive Launch CadenceOn the operational side, Rocket Lab executed a high-frequency launch schedule throughout the month. The company successfully completed four separate Electron missions from its New Zealand launch complex in September alone.
The most recent deployment on Sept. 25 marked the 97th overall Electron mission and the 18th launch of the year. The flight delivered the 13th StriX synthetic aperture radar satellite into low Earth orbit for commercial partner Synspective.
IMM Apex Solar Cell InnovationBeyond launch services, the company also advanced its internal space systems manufacturing. On Sept. 8, Rocket Lab introduced the production release of its new IMM Apex space solar cell architecture.
These high-efficiency cells are specifically designed to be germanium-free, allowing Rocket Lab to completely bypass supply-chain constraints surrounding the critical mineral.
RKLB Stock Edges Higher TuesdayRKLB Price Action: Rocket Lab shares were up 0.12% at $72.28 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Akcionáři Iridium schválili fúzi s Rocket Lab USA, která má propojit globální síť, spektrum a provozní know-how Iridium se startovacími a vesmírnými systémy RKLB.
Rocket Lab USA RKLB announced that Iridium shareholders have approved the merger agreement, a significant step in RKLB's strategy to enhance its space applications. This merger will integrate Iridium's global network, spectrum, and operational expertise with RKLB's launch and space systems.
End-to-End Platform: The merger will enable RKLB to design and manufacture satellites, manage constellations, and provide services through the applications layer added by Iridium. Transaction Progress: The approval follows RKLB's successful $1.944 billion ATM offering earlier this month, which, combined with Iridium's amended $1.775 billion term loan, fully funds the acquisition. RKLB has also terminated its original $3.6 billion bridge facility, reducing financing risks ahead of the anticipated mid-2027 completion. Recent Results: In Q2, RKLB reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to a record $234 million, with a backlog surge of 137% to $2.36 billion. However, adjusted free cash flow remained negative at $(110.1) million due to significant investments in the Neutron rocket and other growth initiatives. Looking Ahead: The Neutron rocket is critical for RKLB's strategy, with management indicating that the timeline for its first launch by year-end is tightening. Designed for constellation deployment, Neutron could eventually facilitate the launch and replenishment of Iridium satellites, reinforcing RKLB's space application ambitions. The approval of the merger is a procedural milestone that clears the way for RKLB to enhance its launch and space systems. Execution remains strong, with the Electron rocket completing its 96th mission and 17th launch of 2026. Q2 results demonstrate robust momentum with record revenue and backlog, although the negative free cash flow highlights the ongoing investment needed for Neutron and other initiatives. Ultimately, the integration of Iridium will position RKLB closer to a comprehensive space platform, while Neutron is pivotal for immediate execution in their launch strategy.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
Rocket Lab má podle New Street Research cílovou cenu 150 USD, což by znamenalo zhruba 104% růst. Klíčový je první let Neutronu; bez něj hrozí stlačení ocenění.
One Wall Street analyst has broken ranks with a target that would nearly double Rocket Lab's battered stock, but execution on a single make-or-break milestone stands between bulls and that payoff.
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) trades at $73.61 while the consensus Wall Street price target sits at $109.37, an implied upside of roughly 49%.
Rocket Lab is the second-most-recognized name in Western launch behind SpaceX, running the Electron small-lift rocket, building a growing Space Systems business, and preparing to debut the medium-lift Neutron. Its $2.36 billion backlog, pending acquisition of Iridium Communications, and expanding U.S. defense book have made it a favorite of space bulls.
One analyst now targets near-doubling upside while the median sees meaningful room to run. Yet the stock has slid from its highs, creating a disconnect worth examining.
Why the Rocket Rolled Over The drawdown from Rocket Lab’s 52-week high of $151 has been severe, wiping out more than 51% of peak value before a recent bounce. Over the trailing three months alone, the stock is down 8.77%, sliding from $80.69 to the current level even as broader indexes advanced.
The catalyst is Neutron. Management said the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing, with delivery to the pad targeted for Q4 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure earlier this year. Bulls need Neutron to fly to justify the multiple.
Dilution has compounded concern. Rocket Lab pulled $1.08 billion through its ATM program in Q2, with Q3 guidance calling for roughly 641 million basic weighted shares. A Q2 non-GAAP free-cash-flow use of $110.1 million and price-to-sales ratio of 58 gave profit-takers reason to trim.
New Street Sees a Path Back to $150 The bull case is anchored by Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, whose $150 Street-high 12-month target sits above a target range of $64 to $150 with a median hovering near $110. That $150 target implies roughly 104% upside from here, a near-doubling.
The thesis rests on Neutron commercialization at $50 to $55 million per flight, expanding government wins including a $397 million Flatellite award for the Space Force SB-AMTI program, and vertical integration through the Iridium deal, which serves more than 2.5 million subscribers and generated over $870 million in annual revenue last year.
Of 18 analysts covering the name, 3 rate it Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 4 Hold, and none Sell. Iridium shareholders approved the acquisition. The catalyst clock now runs on Neutron’s first flight and the mid-2027 Iridium close.
Analysts are watching execution: Q3 revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million, more than $1 billion in new Q3 contracts already signed, and a backlog that grew 137% year-over-year. Miss on Neutron and the multiple compresses; hit and the model reprices.
How the Small-Cap Space Peers Stack Up The pure-play space complex has not sold off uniformly. Rocket Lab and AST have declined while Redwire has advanced.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades at $61.06 versus a consensus target of $79.61, implying 30% upside. Shares are down 15.93% year to date. Of 13 analysts covering, 4 rate it Buy or better, 7 Hold, and 2 Sell or worse, a more cautious posture than Rocket Lab.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $15.70 against a $29.50 target, an implied 88% upside. The stock is down 3.27% YTD with 7 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Strong Sell, closest to RKLB in bullish tilt.
Redwire (NYSE:RDW) trades at $11.60 versus a $14.69 target, roughly 27% upside, with shares up 52.63% YTD. Coverage skews 6 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Strong Sell.
Intuitive Machines shows the largest analyst-implied upside, but Rocket Lab is the only name where a mainstream shop publicly models a full double. Relative to peers, RKLB appears the higher-conviction bull case.
What the Data Actually Shows on RKLB Rocket Lab trades at $73.61 with an average price target of $109.37 from 18 covering analysts, implying roughly 49% upside. The Street-high target from New Street Research at $150 would nearly double the stock.
Performance-wise, RKLB is up 5.52% year to date while the S&P 500 (via SPY) is up 12.52%, a notable underperformance versus the index. Rocket Lab is off 8.77% over three months but has rebounded 10.01% in the past month and 8.54% in the past week.
Analyst ratings breakdown:
Strong Buy: 3 Buy: 11 Hold: 4 Sell/Strong Sell: 0 Price targets are opinions, not guarantees, and Rocket Lab’s beta of 2.6 means the ride to either scenario will not be linear.
Weighing Rocket Lab at $73 The bull scenario requires Neutron reaching the pad on the Q4 2026 timeline, the Iridium acquisition closing in mid-2027 as planned, and the Space Systems backlog converting at current cadence. That path supports the consensus $109 and keeps New Street’s $150 in play. The bear scenario materializes if Neutron slips into 2027, dilution erodes per-share value, or Iridium integration proves messier than expected.
Cautiously constructive. The bull case is differentiated because no other Western pure-play combines launch, spacecraft, and a global comms constellation. The bear case is straightforward execution risk on a company still losing money. At roughly half the Street-high target and 49% below consensus, the risk/reward tilts positive for investors who can stomach the beta.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Redwire, Rocket Lab i Firefly získaly zakázku Space Force až za 981 milionů USD na testovací a tréninkové práce. Peníze přijdou pouze prostřednictvím jednotlivých zakázek.
Redwire Corp. (NYSE:RDW), Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) have won spots on a Space Force contract vehicle worth up to $981 million. The award puts three of the most heavily traded space stocks in line for military test and training work through 2036.
RKLB stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Space Systems Command named 15 vendors to its NITE-STAR multiple-award, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract, according to a July 31 release from the command. The ceiling covers two five-year ordering periods.
The goal is to build test and training tools that prepare Guardians “for engagements against peer adversaries.”
A Crowded RosterLarge defense contractors make up much of the list. Units of Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT), Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC) and L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LHX) were all selected, along with the privately held Sierra Space and seven other firms.
All 15 compete under the same $981 million ceiling. Money flows only when the Space Force issues individual task orders, and nothing guarantees an even split.
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“This effort sets the foundation for rapidly advancing and integrating the test and training tools needed to effectively train Space Force Guardians,” said Col. Craig Hackbarth, a program director at Space Systems Command.
The vehicle will be open to the command’s entire test and training enterprise.
Redwire Speaks UpRedwire announced its selection Thursday, almost two months after the government named the vendor pool. Its subsidiary, Redwire Space Missions LLC, holds the award.
“Selection for NITE-STAR underscores Redwire’s role as a trusted provider of mission-critical spacecraft systems and digital engineering solutions,” said Mike Gold, president of Redwire Space.
The company was blunt about the economics. “There is no guaranteed revenue with the award of the NITE-STAR IDIQ contract,” Redwire said.
The Post-SpaceX HangoverAll three smaller space stocks peaked in late May as investors bet on SpaceX’s market debut. The rally broke on June 12, the day SpaceX started trading.
Firefly sank more than 18% that day, and Rocket Lab and Redwire each fell at least 10%, according to Benzinga Pro market data.
Redwire closed Wednesday at $11.27. The stock is still up 48.3% for 2026. It has also fallen 56.5% from its May 28 close of $25.90.
Rocket Lab finished at $70.31, up only 0.8% for the year and 53.2% below its late-May peak. In August, the company pushed back the timeline for the first flight of its Neutron rocket.
Firefly has taken the biggest hit. It closed at $21.90 on Wednesday, down 2.1% for 2026 and 62.8% below its May high.
What Traders Should WatchThe real test for these three companies is task orders. The larger defense contractors have deep Pentagon relationships and bigger balance sheets. Redwire, Rocket Lab and Firefly are betting on speed and specialized spacecraft hardware.
A 10-year vehicle offers visibility. The payoff will come one order at a time.
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Photo: Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Rocket Lab vykázal rekordní tržby, které meziročně vzrostly o 62 %, a zakázková kniha přesáhla 2,3 mld. USD. Ziskovost ale zůstává v nedohlednu a náklady dál rostou.
It's no secret that Wall Street analysts are very bullish on Rocket Lab (RKLB +3.32%). The majority rate the stock a buy with an average price target of about $109 per share. This is substantially higher than where the stock is trading as of this writing, at about $64.
Rocket Lab also just posted record revenue numbers in its latest quarterly earnings. Revenue increased 62% year over year, the space company's backlog ballooned to more than $2.3 billion, and momentum is strongly on Rocket Lab's side. Still, I'm not quite ready to jump on board.
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Let's start with the bottom line. Rocket Lab isn't close to profitable, and it looks like the prospect of becoming profitable is slipping further into the distance. The company's second-quarter earnings report showed total operating expenses accelerating from the year prior, reaching $142 million in the quarter and $274 million halfway through the year.
Rocket Lab's management expects cash burn to remain elevated for roughly the two years after its Neutron's first successful flight. The Neutron inaugural launch keeps getting pushed back as well. Its original target launch was slated for 2025, but even its latest target of Q4 2026 seems likely to slip again to 2027.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Rocket Lab is also facing significant integration risk at the moment, having completed two acquisitions in 2026 and about to close another deal with Iridium Communications, which will add even more complexity.
Rocket Lab is positioning itself for immense growth in the coming years, particularly in a relatively nascent space. Still, profitability is getting pushed further out while the execution risk grows. I would like to see the company navigate these immediate issues before paying for a stock trading at an immense premium. Shares of Rocket Lab are trading at roughly 50 times its sales as of this writing.
Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rocket Lab chce být integrovaným hráčem ve vesmíru: po akvizici Iridium za 8 miliard USD spojuje rakety, satelity i služby. Firma získá síť 66 satelitů a více než 2,5 milionu zákazníků.
Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) no longer wants to be known only for rockets. Founder and CEO Peter Beck said as much in a video posted on X, describing a business stacked across launch, spacecraft and services.
“We build rockets, we build satellites, and with our acquisition of Iridium, we’re also a services company from space,” Beck said.
The $8 billion purchase of Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) borrows a page from SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX): own every layer, then sell directly to the end customer.
3 Layers, 1 StackBeck breaks the industry into three tiers, and the biggest one sits furthest from the launchpad.
“Rockets, that’s about a $10 or $20 billion industry. Spacecraft, the tools in space to provide services, $20 to $30 billion. And then the reason why you do all of those things are applications in space,” he said.
He also joked about a branding problem. “I probably shouldn’t have called it Rocket Lab. I should have called it Space Lab. The rocket always steals the show because it’s this big roaring stick in the sky.”
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The Iridium PieceThe $8 billion cash-and-stock purchase of Iridium supplies the missing top layer. Rocket Lab picks up a 66-satellite low-Earth-orbit network, globally coordinated L-band spectrum and more than 2.5 million largely enterprise and government subscribers.
Rocket Lab told Reuters the deal is “one of the most transformative deals in the space industry,” creating “a fully-integrated, self-launching, tier-1 space power.”
Beck’s argument is speed: building that network in-house would have taken years and billions.
Why Traders CareThe Rocket Lab-SpaceX comparison is structural. Owning launch, manufacturing and the constellation removes third-party launch costs and adds recurring service revenue to an otherwise capital-hungry space business. Iridium generated $871.7 million in 2025 revenue, compared with Rocket Lab’s $602 million.
Upcoming catalysts include FCC consent to transfer control of licenses to Rocket Lab and Neutron’s debut flight, expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Beck’s closing point explains the end market. “Space is kinda weird that it’s hidden infrastructure. You don’t drive past it every day, so you don’t see it. But everybody interfaces with space every single day, whether you realize it or not.”
RKLB Stock Price Activity: Rocket Lab stock was up 2.07% to $71.34 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro market data.
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Photo courtesy of Rocket Lab Corp.
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Rocket Lab dokončil prodej nových akcií za 1,94 miliardy USD, aby plně financoval plánovanou akvizici Iridium a zrušil bridge loan ve výši 3,6 miliardy USD. Emise znamená zhruba 5% ředění.
Rocket Lab (RKLB +8.24%) said on Sept. 15 that its pending acquisition of satellite operator Iridium Communications (IRDM +3.08%) is fully funded. The space company completed a $1.94 billion at-the-market stock sale (about 29.3 million new shares). And it terminated the $3.6 billion bridge loan it had lined up in late June to backstop the deal.
In other words, Rocket Lab decided to pay for the cash portion of the acquisition by selling pieces of itself instead of borrowing billions. I think that was the right choice for a business that isn't yet profitable. But the choice has a cost, and it can be counted in shares.
Image source: Getty Images.
How much dilution?Rocket Lab reported about 598 million common shares outstanding as of Aug. 5 in its latest quarterly filing. Selling about 29.3 million new shares against that base works out to dilution of about 5%. (Count the preferred shares that convert one-for-one into common -- about 41 million -- and it's closer to 4.5%.)
The sale price matters, too. The shares went out at an average of about $66 each -- a bit below the roughly $69 the stock fetches as of this writing, and less than half the $151 peak reached within the past year.
As for the money, the deal values Iridium at about $8 billion including debt, and shareholders are set to receive $27 per share in cash when it closes. With about 106 million Iridium shares outstanding, the cash portion comes to about $2.9 billion.
The stock sale covers about two-thirds of that. Cash and short-term investments (about $2.3 billion at the end of June) can cover the rest, plus fees and some Iridium debt Rocket Lab plans to repay.
Skipping the loan was the safer moveThe alternative was borrowing. When the acquisition was announced in late June, Rocket Lab lined up a $3.6 billion bridge loan from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo.
The senior secured loan had a 364-day term. Its job was to guarantee the money would be there at closing.
Rocket Lab is still a money-losing company, though. Its second-quarter net loss was $49.3 million, narrower than the $66.4 million loss it posted a year earlier but a loss all the same. A $3.6 billion loan due within a year of closing would have needed to be refinanced fast, at whatever rates lenders offered, by a business that doesn't yet generate profits.
Sure, Iridium's own business could have helped service that debt. The satellite operator produced about $872 million of revenue in 2025 and about $495 million of operational earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (OEBITDA), a 57% margin. But Iridium brings debt of its own: Its $1.8 billion term loan will stay in place after the deal closes, with lenders signing off on the ownership change and Rocket Lab guaranteeing the debt. Using the $3.6 billion bridge to refinance that loan and help cover the cash would have left the combined company deep in debt in a capital-hungry industry.
I'd argue trading about 5% of the company to avoid that outcome is the better deal.
After all, the business keeps setting records. First-quarter revenue was about $200 million. The second quarter stepped up to a record $234 million, up an impressive 62% year over year. Management's third-quarter guidance of $250 million to $265 million calls for yet another high.
Momentum like that helps explain how Rocket Lab could sell $1.9 billion of stock in about a month.
The stock sale only covers the cash half of the deal. Iridium shareholders will also receive Rocket Lab stock at closing -- between 0.24 and 0.40 shares for each Iridium share they own, depending on the stock's price at the time. Across Iridium's share count, that works out to between 25 million and 42 million additional shares.
Add it all up, and the deal could ultimately add about 72 million shares, growing the count as much as 12% from its Aug. 5 level.
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And the closing is still a ways off. Iridium shareholders are scheduled to vote on the deal on Sept. 24, but the companies don't expect the merger to be completed until mid-2027, pending regulatory clearances.
Ultimately, I think Rocket Lab handled the financing well. Selling stock at about $66 beats owing $3.6 billion that would have come due within a year of closing. After all, for a company still posting losses, a stronger balance sheet is arguably worth the dilution.
That said, a stronger balance sheet doesn't make the stock cheap. At about $69 per share, Rocket Lab carries a market value above $40 billion -- more than 40 times its annualized revenue.
Sure, the financing looks smart. But my view of the growth stock hasn't changed. I would avoid buying shares at this price.
Cantor Fitzgerald zopakoval u Rocket Lab doporučení Overweight a cílovou cenu 122 USD, protože Neutron má být po spuštění jedinou životaschopnou alternativou ke SpaceX. Ve 2. čtvrtletí tržby dosáhly rekordu 234,07 milionu USD, meziročně +62,0 %.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated an Overweight rating and $122.00 price target on Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction), calling the current level an attractive entry point ahead of the Neutron rocket’s debut. The firm argues Neutron is uniquely…
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Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated an Overweight rating and $122.00 price target on Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction), calling the current level an attractive entry point ahead of the Neutron rocket’s debut. The firm argues Neutron is uniquely positioned to become the only viable alternative and most direct commercial competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 once operational. For long-term investors, the call frames Rocket Lab stock as the clearest listed proxy for the commercial space buildout.
Ticker Company Firm Action Old Rating New Rating Old Target New Target RKLB Rocket Lab USA Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterated Overweight Overweight $122.00 $122.00 Inside the Cantor Fitzgerald Thesis Sheppard’s bullish stance follows Rocket Lab’s September 15 announcement of secured funding for the Iridium acquisition. Cantor models the combined company will double annual revenue once the deal closes, cementing an end-to-end space platform spanning launch, satellites and services. On Neutron, management is targeting an average selling price of $50 million to $55 million per launch and up to 20 launches per engine, with first flight targeted for later this year.
Rocket Lab by the Numbers Q2 FY26 revenue reached a record $234.07 million, up 62.0% year-over-year, with product revenues nearly doubling. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.5%, and backlog grew 137% to $2.36 billion, including more than 90 launches. CEO Peter Beck highlighted “more than $1 billion in new contracts across launch and space systems already entered into in Q3”, including a $397 million Flatellite award for the U.S. Space Force SB-AMTI program. Guidance calls for Q3 revenue of $250 million to $265 million.
How It Stacks Up Against SpaceX Ticker Company Rating Price Target RKLB Rocket Lab Overweight (Cantor) $122.00 SPCX SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Not analyst-rated peer N/A SpaceX remains the industry benchmark, delivering $7.8 billion in Q2 revenue, up 92%, with Elon Musk noting Falcon carries “80 to 90% of total Earth mass to orbit per year.” Cantor’s point is scarcity value: Rocket Lab is the only listed pure-play credibly building a scaled second source.
Why the Timing Matters Rocket Lab shares trade at $67.35, off 11.19% over the past month but up 42.75% over one year, with a market cap near $40.3 billion. The 52-week range of $37.57 to $151 underscores the volatility. The Space Force’s FY 2027 budget request of $71.2 billion names Rocket Lab as an NSSL prime contractor, reinforcing the demand backdrop.
What It Means for Your Portfolio Retirement-focused investors should weigh the upside of a scarce SpaceX alternative against real execution risks: Neutron timeline slippage, integration of Mynaric, Motiv and the pending Iridium acquisition, and continued GAAP losses funded by equity raises. Rocket Lab stock warrants research as a long-duration space infrastructure holding, sized to reflect its beta of 2.612.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nykredit A S bought a new stake in Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ:RKLB – Free Report) in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm bought 320,673 shares of the rocket manufacturer’s stock, valued at approximately $32,596,000. Nykredit A S owned about 0.05% of Rocket Lab as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in RKLB. Parkside Financial Bank & Trust raised its stake in shares of Rocket Lab by 669.1% in the second quarter. Parkside Financial Bank & Trust now owns 6,022 shares of the rocket manufacturer’s stock valued at $612,000 after acquiring an additional 5,239 shares in the last quarter. Anchor Capital Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Rocket Lab during the second quarter worth approximately $1,421,000. Corient Private Wealth LP raised its holdings in Rocket Lab by 795.2% in the second quarter. Corient Private Wealth LP now owns 476,241 shares of the rocket manufacturer’s stock valued at $48,410,000 after acquiring an additional 423,039 shares in the last quarter. Amundi lifted its stake in Rocket Lab by 22.2% in the second quarter. Amundi now owns 2,180,748 shares of the rocket manufacturer’s stock worth $221,673,000 after acquiring an additional 396,639 shares during the last quarter. Finally, HighTower Advisors LLC lifted its stake in Rocket Lab by 4.2% in the second quarter. HighTower Advisors LLC now owns 109,226 shares of the rocket manufacturer’s stock worth $11,103,000 after acquiring an additional 4,407 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 71.78% of the company’s stock.
Insider Activity In other news, SVP Arjun Kampani sold 7,754 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 24th. The shares were sold at an average price of $69.63, for a total value of $539,911.02. Following the completion of the transaction, the senior vice president owned 256,951 shares in the company, valued at $17,891,498.13. This trade represents a 2.93% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, insider Frank Klein sold 45,692 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 24th. The shares were sold at an average price of $69.63, for a total transaction of $3,181,533.96. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 961,295 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $66,934,970.85. This trade represents a 4.54% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Insiders have sold a total of 3,536,371 shares of company stock valued at $303,442,641 over the last three months. 8.40% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In RKLB has been the topic of a number of analyst reports. KGI Securities upgraded shares of Rocket Lab from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a $107.00 price objective on the stock in a report on Monday, July 27th. Raymond James Financial began coverage on shares of Rocket Lab in a research note on Friday, September 11th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $80.00 target price for the company. Berenberg Bank began coverage on Rocket Lab in a report on Wednesday, September 2nd. They issued a “buy” rating and a $83.00 target price on the stock. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of Rocket Lab in a research note on Friday, July 17th. Finally, Craig Hallum lifted their price target on Rocket Lab from $98.00 to $120.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, June 29th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have given a Buy rating, five have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $107.32. Get Our Latest Research Report on RKLB
Rocket Lab News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting Rocket Lab this week:
Positive Sentiment: Rocket Lab completed a roughly $1.94 billion equity offering to help finance its proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications, providing capital for the company’s expansion into satellite communications and defense. Rocket Lab Completes $1.94 Billion Equity Offering Positive Sentiment: The Iridium transaction cleared an initial FCC regulatory hurdle, while Iridium shareholders are scheduled to vote on the approximately $8.1 billion deal on September 24. Regulatory progress supports Rocket Lab’s strategy to build a broader space and communications business. Rocket Lab Jumps as FCC Clears First Hurdle on Iridium Deal Positive Sentiment: Rocket Lab is continuing hardware testing for its Neutron rocket. Reports that SpaceX may limit new Falcon 9 commercial bookings beyond 2028 could create an opportunity for Neutron if Rocket Lab achieves a successful debut and reliable launch cadence. Rocket Lab Tests Neutron Hardware Rocket Lab Trading Down 4.8% Shares of RKLB stock opened at $64.57 on Friday. The company has a market capitalization of $38.64 billion, a P/E ratio of -239.14 and a beta of 2.60. The company has a current ratio of 5.48, a quick ratio of 4.98 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. The business’s 50 day moving average is $69.56 and its two-hundred day moving average is $84.25. Rocket Lab Corporation has a twelve month low of $37.57 and a twelve month high of $151.00.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Monday, August 10th. The rocket manufacturer reported ($0.08) earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of ($0.06) by ($0.02). The company had revenue of $234.07 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $231.62 million. Rocket Lab had a negative return on equity of 6.48% and a negative net margin of 21.51%. Equities analysts forecast that Rocket Lab Corporation will post -0.2 EPS for the current year.
Rocket Lab Profile (Free Report)
Rocket Lab USA, Inc is a space company that provides launch services and space systems for commercial, civil and national security customers. The company develops and operates launch vehicles, spacecraft and satellite components, with activities spanning the design, manufacture and operation of space hardware.
Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is a small-lift orbital launch vehicle designed to deploy small satellites. The company also develops HASTE, a suborbital test vehicle based on Electron technology, and is developing Neutron, a larger reusable launch vehicle intended to support a broader range of missions.
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Rocket Lab má rekordní tržby a backlog ve výši 2,36 miliardy USD, což ukazuje na širší byznys, než si investoři myslí. Firma zároveň může získat zakázku od Space Force za 397 milionů USD.
Rocket Lab (RKLB -4.79%) is proving it can win major defense spacecraft programs before Neutron flies. Record revenue, a $2.36 billion backlog, and a potential $397 million Space Force award point to a broader business than many investors assume. But with a rich valuation and Neutron delays still possible, the next phase could reshape the stock's risk-reward.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 26, 2026. The video was published on Sept. 17, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Rocket Lab úspěšně provedla 96. let rakety Electron a vynesla 12. satelit StriX pro Synspective na přesnou oběžnou dráhu ve výšce 572 km. Jde o 17. start v roce 2026 a pokračování 100% úspěšnosti této spolupráce.
MAHIA, New Zealand, Sept. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today successfully launched the latest Earth-observation satellite to space for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) company, Synspective.
The ‘Owl By The Dozen’ mission launched from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 3:22pm NZST on September 19, 2026 and delivered the 12th StriX satellite directly into an exact 572km low Earth orbit for Synspective’s Earth-monitoring constellation.
The launch marks Rocket Lab’s 96th Electron flight and its 17th launch of 2026, underscoring Electron's unmatched operational cadence in commercial small-lift launch globally. This mission also extends Rocket Lab’s 100% mission success record across its multi-year launch partnership with Synspective.
Mission Highlights:
Global Launch Leadership: With 17 launches completed so far in 2026, Electron continues to lead the global commercial small-lift sector in frequency and reliability.Pinpoint Orbital Accuracy: Electron’s Kick Stage placed the StriX satellite into its 572km orbit with pinpoint accuracy, maximizing on-orbit lifetime and supporting immediate integration of this latest satellite into Synspective’s constellation.Constellation Expansion: Rocket Lab has 15 additional dedicated Electron missions manifested through the end of the decade to complete Synspective's commercial SAR constellation.
‘Owl By The Dozen’ launch images: click here
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
Akcie Rocket Lab v pátek klesly asi o 5 % poté, co firma získala 1,94 miliardy USD pro plánovanou koupi Iridium Communications. Investoři se obávají ředění podílů po prodeji zhruba 29,3 milionu akcií.
Rocket Lab takes a hit as $1.94 billion stock sale fuels dilution worries Summary
Rocket Lab’s massive equity raise to help fund its Iridium acquisition is putting pressure on shares as investors assess dilution
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) shares fell about 5% Friday as investors weighed the effect of a $1.94 billion stock sale used to help finance the company's planned purchase of Iridium Communications.
The company raised roughly $1.944 billion through its at-the-market program by selling about 29.3 million shares. The proceeds are intended mainly for the cash portion of the Iridium transaction, which Rocket Lab expects to complete in mid-2027, subject to regulatory approvals. The financing was completed on Sept. 15.
The funding also reshaped the debt arrangements surrounding the deal. Iridium amended its existing credit facility, providing $1.775 billion of term loans that can remain in place after a change of control. Rocket Lab also terminated a $3.6 billion bridge loan commitment after securing the new funding.
The added shares have raised concerns about dilution for existing holders, putting pressure on the stock despite the financing progress. Rocket Lab said excess proceeds, if any, could support future acquisitions, growth initiatives, working capital and general corporate purposes.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Akcie Rocket Lab vzrostly o 6 % na 67,66 USD poté, co FCC přijala žádosti o převod licencí v rámci plánované akvizice společnosti Iridium Communications a zahájila veřejné připomínkové řízení. Schválení ale ještě nepadlo. Akcie Rocket Lab jsou za poslední měsíc stále níže o 18 %.
The FCC just handed Rocket Lab a procedural win on its Iridium acquisition, but the stock's 18% slide over the past month and a rival already flagging concerns inside the docket suggest the hard part is still ahead.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) shares are rallying after a first-step regulatory clearance on its planned acquisition, while the target, Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM), is barely moving on the same news. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) accepted the license-transfer applications for filing, opening a public-comment period on the proposed acquisition. The step isn’t an approval of the deal; it removes an early risk that the process could stall.
The ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (CBOE:ARKX), which holds Rocket Lab as a top position, is up 2% to $32.34, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 1% to $762.36. Space names are outpacing the broad tape.
In Thursday afternoon trading, Rocket Lab shares are up 6% to $67.66, though Rocket Lab stock is down 18% over the past month. Meanwhile, Iridium Communications stock is up 0.2% to $47.36, essentially anchored despite the same catalyst driving Rocket Lab higher.
FCC Filing Acceptance Opens Public Comment The FCC action isn’t an approval. It’s an acceptance that starts a public-comment window on transferring Iridium Communications’ licenses to Rocket Lab, removing an early risk that the review could stall before formal input from third parties began.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) asked the FCC to examine Iridium Communications’ conduct toward rival satellite operators, while stating that it does not oppose the acquisition itself. That type of comment doesn’t block the deal, but it puts a competitor on record inside the review Rocket Lab now has to work through. The presence of a rival in the docket is a factor Rocket Lab will need to manage.
Separately, Rocket Lab said it raised $1.94 billion in an equity sale, which together with existing liquidity and an amended term loan at Iridium Communications let Rocket Lab terminate its bridge facility. That closes the financing question for Rocket Lab and leaves the transaction dependent on the shareholder vote and the regulators, taking the financing overhang off the table.
Iridium Communications holders receive cash plus Rocket Lab shares that vary with Rocket Lab’s share price at close. The variable share component absorbs part of the acquirer’s move, which is why Rocket Lab stock climbing while Iridium Communications shares sit still reflects the deal mechanics.
The transaction placed a $6 billion equity value on Iridium Communications when announced, according to Rocket Lab. The market is treating those terms as the anchor on Iridium Communications rather than reading Thursday as fresh news about standalone value.
Bull Case and the Equity Cost for Rocket Lab The bull case is that owning Iridium Communications turns Rocket Lab into a company that operates a constellation and bills subscribers, adding recurring revenue the market tends to reward with a higher multiple.
Rocket Lab’s complication is that it paid for the optionality with equity. Rocket Lab stock’s 18% one-month decline shows the market wasn’t thrilled about dilution heading into this week. Rocket Lab still has a shareholder vote ahead, a public-comment window in which a competitor has flagged concerns, and a close targeted for the middle of next year. The plain read is that Rocket Lab stock bounced because the deal survived its first procedural test, removing a risk rather than adding a business.
Rocket Lab’s 6% gain on a procedural clearance is meaningful but comes after a month in which Rocket Lab stock lost 18%. Rocket Lab holding this level depends less on Thursday’s headline and more on what emerges from the comment window.
What to Watch Next Investors can watch for further FCC docket entries and filings from rival operators during the public-comment window. Whether SpaceX’s concerns broaden or stay narrow is the near-term signal for Rocket Lab. A quiet docket would support the market’s read of Thursday.
Given Rocket Lab stock’s history of large swings and its past-month drawdown, holders should size their exposure to the volatility Rocket Lab shares have already shown, not to Thursday’s bounce. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether Rocket Lab shares hold their gains through the close, since procedural wins can fade once the initial reaction runs its course.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
SpaceX ve středu přidala zhruba 100 miliard USD k tržní kapitalizaci a uzavřela na 150,88 USD za akcii, což je o 5,15 % více než v úterý. Tržní kapitalizace firmy se tak přiblížila 2 bilionům USD.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) gained about $100 billion in market value Wednesday. Two and a half times the market cap of Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB), which gained in a single session.
The rocket and satellite company closed at $150.88 per share, up 5.15% from Tuesday’s $143.49 finish, lifting its market capitalization to roughly $2 trillion.
Rocket Lab, the closest thing the sector has to a pure-play public rival, carries a market cap of about $38.1 billion. One day of SpaceX tape swallowed more than two of them.
SPCX stock is moving. See the real-time price action here. What Moved the StockTwo catalysts sit behind the bid. SpaceX is targeting Sept. 22 for Starship Flight 14, the vehicle’s first fully orbital attempt and the first mission meant to deploy third-generation Starlink satellites at a cadence Falcon 9 cannot match.
Success would validate the economics underpinning a $2 trillion valuation, while failure would do the opposite.
Read Next
Passive demand is the second leg. Elon Musk‘s SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, less than a month after its debut, one of the fastest inclusions ever under Nasdaq’s revised fast-entry rules, and J.P. Morgan estimated the addition could pull in $4.3 billion of passive flows. Index weight updates keep forcing benchmarked funds to buy.
Volatility Is the Baseline HereNothing about a $100 billion day is unusual for SpaceX. Shares priced at $135, jumped 19% on their June 12 debut to a market value near $2.1 trillion, and vaulted past Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) within days as newly listed options fueled a trading frenzy.
Then came the giveback, when more than $1 trillion in market value was shed through early August. The 52-week range runs from $104.83 to $225.64, per Benzinga Pro market data.
Supply remains the overhang traders watch. Lockup restrictions lifting through Dec. 8 will raise the tradable float to 40% of the company, with the remaining 60%, including Musk’s stake, locked until mid-2027.
SPCX Price ActionSPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was up 1.98% at $153.87 at the time of publication Thursday, according to market data from Benzinga Pro.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Rocket Lab ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 62 % na rekordních 234 milionů USD a backlog vzrostl na 2,36 miliardy USD. Firma míří v roce 2027 na tržby přes 1,5 miliardy USD bez započtení Iridium.
Rocket Lab (RKLB +1.60%) keeps breaking its own records. The space company's revenue rose 62% year over year to a record $234 million in the second quarter of 2026. Its backlog grew to a record $2.36 billion, up 137%.
And management's guidance for third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million calls for yet another record.
There's a complication ahead, though. In June, Rocket Lab agreed to buy satellite operator Iridium Communications (IRDM +2.30%) in an $8 billion deal expected to close in mid-2027.
Iridium produced about $872 million of revenue in 2025. So when the deal closes, Rocket Lab's reported totals will fold in a large business it bought.
That's why my prediction draws a hard line. I think Rocket Lab's own operations (not counting a dollar from Iridium) top $1.5 billion of revenue in 2027.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What does $1.5 billion take?This year's total isn't complete yet. Rocket Lab reported a little over $200 million of revenue in the first quarter and $234 million in the second, for about $434 million through June.
The midpoint of third-quarter guidance would bring the company to about $692 million with a quarter left. A fourth quarter around $280 million (my estimate, in line with this year's sequential gains) would put 2026 at about $970 million, up about 61% from the $602 million Rocket Lab reported in 2025. That 2025 total was itself up 38%.
From there, my prediction asks for less than it might seem. Hitting $1.5 billion in 2027 from about $970 million takes growth of about 55%. Put another way, it asks Rocket Lab to slow down.
After all, revenue rose about 63% year over year in the first quarter and 62% in the second. Those rates benefited from acquisitions that now sit in the base, so next year's growth must come largely from the business as it stands. Even if fourth-quarter revenue only equals the third quarter's guided midpoint, putting 2026 near $950 million, the requirement is about 58% -- still below today's pace.
Nearly half the backlog is expected to convert within a yearA surprising amount of next year's revenue is already under contract. In its second-quarter filing, the company reported about 45% of its $2.36 billion backlog (around $1.1 billion) is expected to be recognized as revenue within 12 months. Some of that arrives in late 2026. But the window extends through mid-2027, and the other 55% sits behind it.
The backlog is still growing, too. It was $2.2 billion at the end of March and $2.36 billion at the end of June -- and that increase came even as Rocket Lab recognized $234 million of revenue during that period. Behind those totals sits the largest single contract the company has ever announced: an $816 million Space Development Agency award for 18 satellites.
Granted, acquisitions added backlog too, and a backlog isn't a schedule. Contracts can shift, and programs can slip.
Still, the mix is encouraging. Space systems, the segment that builds satellites and components, accounts for about $1.4 billion of the backlog and generated $189.5 million of second-quarter revenue, up 94% year over year (a rate helped by recent acquisitions).
Neutron is upside, not a requirementNotably, I haven't counted Neutron, the bigger rocket Rocket Lab is building to compete with SpaceX, anywhere in this forecast. The company targets delivering it to the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a launch date hasn't been announced.
The forecast is built that way on purpose. If Neutron debuts in 2027 and starts working through the launch contracts waiting on it, that revenue arrives on top of my numbers. If the rocket slips, the forecast doesn't change much, because the revenue it counts comes from satellite work and Electron, the company's smaller rocket that is already flying.
Will Rocket Lab top $1.5 billion in 2027 without Iridium? I think so.
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The growth needed is slower than what the company is already delivering, and nearly half of a record backlog is expected to convert. What could change my mind is a stall in space systems deliveries or a stretch where bookings stop outrunning revenue. Neither has shown up yet.
The prediction ends at the revenue line, though. Rocket Lab still expects an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of $17 million to $23 million in the third quarter, larger than the second quarter's $8.8 million loss.
The valuation is the other concern. At roughly $63 per share as of this writing, shares already price in years of growth like this.
So even with that revenue on the way, this growth stock isn't one I'd buy today.
Rocket Lab dokončil emisi akcií za zhruba 1,944 miliardy USD a tím plně zajistil financování plánované akvizice Iridium Communications. Uzavření se očekává v polovině roku 2027.
Iridium Acquisition Now Fully Financed: Rocket Lab completes the $1.944 billion At-The-Market (ATM) equity offering, securing the required cash consideration (alongside available liquidity) to fully fund its pending acquisition of Iridium Communications - expected to close in mid-2027, pending regulatory approvals.
Cost-Effective Debt Structure Secured: Iridium amends its existing $1.775 billion credit facility to permit the change of control, establishing long-term, cost-effective permanent financing backed by Iridium’s strong free cash flow and a parent guarantee from Rocket Lab USA.
Bridge Facility Terminated: Rocket Lab successfully cancels the initial $3.6B senior secured bridge facility, de-risking the capital structure ahead of the targeted close of the acquisition in mid-2027. LONG BEACH, Calif., Sept. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) (“Rocket Lab” or the “Company”), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced it has successfully completed several critical milestones to fully finance its pending acquisition of Iridium Communications Inc. (“Iridium” and such pending transaction, the “Iridium Acquisition”).
ATM Program Update
Rocket Lab has completed its previously announced At-The-Market share sale (the “ATM Program”), raising approximately $1.944 billion in gross proceeds through the issuance of 29.3 million shares (before commissions and offering expenses).
Rocket Lab intends to use the net proceeds from the ATM Program to fund cash payments under the Iridium Acquisition. If the Company does not consummate the Iridium Acquisition or if it has excess proceeds from the offering of shares under the ATM Program, the Company intends to use the net proceeds to fund future growth, including potential future acquisitions, and for general corporate and working capital purposes.
Change of Control Consent and Amendment for Iridium Existing Credit Agreement
On September 15, 2026, Iridium entered into an amendment (the “Change of Control Amendment”) to its existing term loan facility for its outstanding $1.775 billion term loans (as of June 30, 2026) (the “Iridium Term Loan”) to obtain consent from the requisite lenders to, among other things, amend the definition of “Change of Control” under the credit agreement to carve out Rocket Lab’s pending acquisition of Iridium. As part of the Change of Control Amendment, Rocket Lab USA, Inc., the Company’s primary operating subsidiary and anticipated parent company of Iridium, will provide an unsecured guarantee of the Iridium Term Loan upon the closing of the Iridium Acquisition.
The completion of the Change of Control Amendment will provide Rocket Lab with cost-effective, permanent financing upon the closing of the Iridium Acquisition, supported by Iridium substantial free cash flow.
Termination of Debt Commitment Letter
The Iridium Term Loan, together with the proceeds raised to date under the ATM Program and other unrestricted cash and cash equivalents available to the Company, represent an amount sufficient to pay the required cash consideration, repay certain Iridium indebtedness (other than the Iridium Term Loan) and pay related fees and expenses at the closing of the Iridium Acquisition. In connection with the consummation of the Change of Control Amendment the Company also terminated its $3.6 billion debt commitment for a senior secured debt bridge facility it had entered into in connection with the Iridium Acquisition merger agreement on June 28, 2026.
The completion of the Change of Control Amendment and the proceeds raised under the ATM Program is another significant milestone in the Company’s pending acquisition of Iridium, which is expected to be completed in mid-2027.
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Additional Information and Where to Find It
This communication is being made in respect of a proposed transaction involving Rocket Lab Corporation (“Rocket Lab”) and Iridium Communications Inc. (“Iridium”). In connection with the proposed transaction, Rocket Lab has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a Registration Statement on Form S-4 that includes the proxy statement of Iridium that also constitutes a prospectus of Rocket Lab. On August 26, 2026, the Registration Statement was declared effective, Iridium filed the definitive proxy statement, and Rocket Lab filed the final prospectus. The definitive proxy statement/final prospectus was sent to the stockholders of Iridium beginning on or about August 26, 2026, seeking their approval of certain transaction-related proposals. This communication is not a substitute for the definitive proxy statement/final prospectus or any other documents which Rocket Lab or Iridium may file with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction.
The definitive proxy statement/final prospectus and this communication are not offers to sell any securities, are not soliciting an offer to buy any securities in any state where the offer and sale is not permitted and are not a solicitation of any vote or approval.
ROCKET LAB AND IRIDIUM URGE INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS TO READ THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-4, THE RELATED DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT/FINAL PROSPECTUS INCLUDED THEREIN AND OTHER DOCUMENTS ROCKET LAB AND IRIDIUM FILE WITH THE SEC CAREFULLY AND IN THEIR ENTIRETY BECAUSE THEY CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION.
Investors and security holders can obtain these materials free of charge (when they become available) at the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. Copies of documents filed with the SEC by Rocket Lab (when they become available) may be obtained free of charge on Rocket Lab’s website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/financial-information/sec-filings or by contacting Rocket Lab’s Investor Relations Department at [email protected]. Copies of documents filed with the SEC by Iridium (when they become available) may be obtained free of charge on Iridium’s website at https://investor.iridium.com/sec-filings or by contacting Iridium’s Investor Relations Department at [email protected].
Participants in the Solicitation
Robert H. Niehaus, Louis M. Alterman, Thomas C. Canfield, Matthew J. Desch, Thomas J. Fitzpatrick, L. Anthony Frazier, Suzanne E. McBride, Eric T. Olson, Kay N. Sears, Monique S. Shivanandan and Jacqueline E. Yeaney, all of whom are members of Iridium’s board of directors, and Vincent J. O’Neill, Iridium’s chief financial officer, may be considered participants in Iridium’s solicitation. Information regarding such participants, including their direct or indirect interests, by security holdings or otherwise, is included in the definitive proxy statement/final prospectus filed with the SEC on August 26, 2026. Rocket Lab may also be deemed to be a participant in Iridium’s solicitation; information regarding Rocket Lab is included in the definitive proxy statement/final prospectus filed with the SEC on August 26, 2026. Copies of these documents may be obtained, free of charge, from the SEC or Iridium as described in the preceding paragraph.
This communication contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are based on Rocket Lab’s and Iridium’s current expectations, estimates and projections about the proposed transaction and the potential benefits thereof, their respective businesses and industries, management’s beliefs and certain assumptions made by Rocket Lab and Iridium, all of which are subject to change. In this context, forward-looking statements often address expected future events, including future business and financial performance and financial condition. All forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, and are not guarantees of future results, such as statements about the consummation of the proposed transaction and the anticipated benefits thereof, expectations regarding regulatory approvals, and intentions with respect to financing the transaction. These and other forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements and, therefore, you should not place undue reliance on any such statements and caution must be exercised in relying on forward-looking statements. Important risk factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (i) the completion of the proposed transaction on anticipated terms and timing, or at all, including obtaining stockholder and regulatory approvals and satisfying other conditions to the completion of the transaction; (ii) the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the merger agreement, including the receipt by Iridium of an unsolicited proposal from a third party; (iii) failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the proposed transaction on a timely basis or at all, including anticipated tax treatment, unforeseen liabilities, future capital expenditures, revenues, expenses, earnings, the integration of the businesses of Rocket Lab and Iridium, synergies, economic performance, indebtedness, financial condition, losses, future prospects, business and management strategies for the management, expansion and growth of Rocket Lab’s and Iridium’s businesses; (iv) Rocket Lab’s and Iridium’s ability to implement their business strategies; (v) potential litigation relating to the proposed transaction that could be instituted against Rocket Lab, Iridium or their respective directors, managers, or officers, including the effects of any outcomes related thereto; (vi) the risk that disruptions from the proposed transaction will harm Rocket Lab’s or Iridium’s businesses, including current plans and operations, or will otherwise divert management time from ongoing business operations on transaction-related issues; (vii) the ability of Rocket Lab or Iridium to retain and hire key personnel; (viii) potential adverse reactions or changes to business relationships resulting from the announcement or completion of the proposed transaction; (ix) fluctuations in, and uncertainty as to the long-term value of, Rocket Lab or Iridium common stock (including as relating to the risk that any announcements related to the proposed transaction could have adverse effects on the market price of such stock); (x) legislative, regulatory and economic developments affecting Rocket Lab’s and Iridium’s businesses, including actions by government agencies and third parties; (xi) general economic and market developments and conditions, potential changes to international trade relations, geopolitical conflicts and effects from global pandemics, epidemics, or other public health crises; (xii) the evolving legal, regulatory and tax regimes under which Rocket Lab and Iridium operate; (xiii) restrictions during the pendency of the proposed transaction that may impact Rocket Lab’s or Iridium’s ability to pursue certain business opportunities or strategic transactions; (xiv) unexpected costs, charges or expenses resulting from the proposed transaction; (xv) risks that any debt or other financing anticipated in connection with the proposed transaction is not obtained or that such financing cannot be obtained on the anticipated timing or terms or unexpected costs or expenses in connection therewith; and (xvi) the other risks and uncertainties, as described in the periodic reports that Rocket Lab and Iridium file with the SEC. These risks, as well as other risks associated with the proposed transaction, are more fully discussed in the definitive proxy statement/final prospectus filed with the SEC on August 26, 2026 in connection with the proposed transaction. Neither Rocket Lab nor Iridium assumes any obligation to publicly provide revisions or updates to any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, should circumstances change, except as otherwise required by securities and other applicable laws. Forward-looking statements included in this communication are made as of the date of this communication.
Rocket Lab představila novou technologii solárních článků, která má zmírnit úzká místa v dodavatelském řetězci satelitů. Firma zároveň dokončila 16. start Electronu v roce 2026.
Few stocks have tested investor conviction in 2026 as much as Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB. After hitting new highs at $151 in May, shares have slid back to around $62, down roughly 8% for the year and testing a level that could make or break the bulls' case. Yet even as the share price has struggled, the underlying business keeps posting wins. The latest development speaks directly to one of the biggest challenges facing the entire space industry. The question for investors is whether an improving business, sitting on a badly beaten-down stock, is finally worth a closer look or even a nibble long.
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Rocket Lab’s Operations Keep DeliveringRocket Lab recently unveiled new solar cell technology designed to ease supply-chain constraints that have long bottlenecked satellite production. Space-grade solar cells are a critical component for powering spacecraft, and supply has been notoriously tight across the industry. By advancing its own solar cell manufacturing, Rocket Lab is not just solving a problem for itself; it is strengthening its position as a vertically integrated space company that controls more of its own supply chain than most competitors. The announcement briefly moved the stock and reinforced a theme that has defined the company all year: the operational side of this business keeps firing.
Another sign of operational and mission success came on Sept. 11, when the company completed its 16th Electron launch of 2026, cementing its status as the world's leading small launch provider. Combined with a record backlog and a string of national security contract wins in recent months, the fundamental story is arguably in its best shape yet.
The Chart Still Isn’t Confirming the StoryHere is where investors need to be honest with themselves. However well the business is performing, the chart is not yet cooperating. Rocket Lab is holding near major higher-timeframe support around $60, a level that has so far kept the decline in check. But the stock sits below all of its key moving averages, including its closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA). That is the technical signature of a stock in a downtrend, not one that has confirmed a bottom.
For momentum to shift back in the bulls' favor, there is real work to be done. The first meaningful sign of a turn would be a reclaim of the $80 level and the 200-day moving average. Until that happens, the buyers still have something to prove, and the safer read is that the stock is basing rather than breaking out. Holding $60 keeps the setup alive; losing it would open the door to further downward momentum.
Neutron Is Still the Main EventThe disconnect between a thriving business and a sluggish, underperforming stock comes down to one word: Neutron. Rocket Lab's medium-lift reusable rocket is the single most important catalyst in the entire investment case, and the market knows it. Electron has made Rocket Lab the dominant small launch provider. Still, Neutron would open the door to the much larger heavy-lift market, putting the company in direct competition for the large, high-value missions that move the revenue needle most. It is also the vehicle tapped to launch major programs like the company's Flatellite constellation.
Neutron remains targeted for debut later this year, and investors are watching that timeline closely. Every solar cell breakthrough, every Electron launch, and every new contract are encouraging, but they are supporting actors, while Neutron is undoubtedly the absolute headliner. A successful debut could be the catalyst that finally realigns the stock with the strength of the business, while any further slippage in the timeline would likely cap momentum.
The Risk-Reward Is Improving, But the Bottom Isn’t ConfirmedThe answer comes down almost entirely to time horizon. Analysts remain firmly constructive, with a Moderate Buy consensus across 23 analysts and an average price target of $108.83, implying more than 75% upside, with the bulls still firmly in control of the ratings.
For long-term believers, an underperforming price near major support, paired with a business that keeps winning work and shipping missions, is a genuinely interesting risk-reward. But the technical picture argues for patience. Momentum still does not favor the bulls, and the valuation remains rich at more than 60 times sales. The most disciplined approach may be to watch how the stock behaves around $60, and to let Neutron, not hope, be the guide.
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AUCKLAND, New Zealand, Sept. 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today launched its 16th Electron rocket of the year with a dedicated mission for a confidential customer.
The “Happily Ever Faster” mission lifted off from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 3:28 p.m. NZST on 11 September and successfully deployed a single Earth observation satellite to a 500km circular low Earth orbit.
“Happily Ever Faster” is Rocket Lab’s 16th launch of the year and 95th launch overall. Rocket Lab’s next Electron launch is scheduled to take place from Launch Complex 1 for another commercial constellation operator before the end of the month. As global launch availability continues to strain the market, Electron’s regular and reliable launch cadence provides schedule certainty and dedicated access to space for satellite operators of the industry’s next-generation constellations.
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
Rocket Lab ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 62 % na více než 234 milionů USD a backlog vzrostl nad 2,36 miliardy USD. Firma zároveň ve 3. čtvrtletí očekává tržby 250–265 milionů USD.
Buy Rocket Lab (RKLB). The stock is down 56% from its peak, RSI has turned up to ~40, and a double-bottom is forming with a neckline around $86.6. Fundamentals back the chart: Q2 revenue +62%, backlog $2.36B, and guidance for Q3 revenue $250–$265M with gross margin 29–31%. Thesis: the market is over-discounting near-term execution risk and will re-rate once the $86.6 level breaks, opening a path toward ~$100.
Key Risk: A guidance miss or margin compression that proves the backlog growth isn’t translating into profitable revenue.
Iridium acquisition leverage
Buy RKLB more aggressively on any dip. The $8B Iridium deal is the catalyst: spectrum (L-band) expands Rocket Lab’s addressable services and creates a credible platform for higher-margin, recurring revenue beyond launches. Second-order setup: as spectrum monetization becomes clearer, analysts will lift long-term revenue and multiple, not just near-term sales—supporting a sustained move above the $86.6 neckline rather than a quick technical bounce.
Key Risk: Regulatory/technical delays or deal economics that make spectrum monetization slower or more expensive than expected.
Rocket Lab stock has slumped in recent months despite the company hitting several major milestones. Shares peaked at $150 in May before tumbling 56% to the current $65. This pullback could be a good buying opportunity, as a double-bottom pattern appears to be forming.
RKLB, one of the top players in the space industry, is doing well as demand for its services continues rising. It has made some major contract announcements recently with organizations like the Space Force, Viasat, and MDA.
Rocket Lab also announced the release of Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex, which is the latest iteration of its next-generation solar cell designed to deliver efficiency and reliability for space applications. Brad Clevenger, the company’s president, said:
“With IMM Apex, customers gain access to a high-efficiency, lightweight, germanium-free product that combines proven reliability with faster production times.
The company also announced strong financial results, which showed that its business continues to grow. Its revenue jumped by 62% in the second quarter to over $234 million.
The revenue surge happened as its backlog soared to over $2.36 billion and management expects the surge to continue in the foreseeable future. For example, it expects its third-quarter revenue to come in between $250 million and $265 million, with its gross margin between 29% and 31%.
READ MORE: Cathie Wood buys $31.6M of Rocket Lab stock: is she betting the selloff went too far?
Analysts also expect that its revenues will come out stronger. The average estimate is that its annual revenue growth will be 59% to $958 million, followed by $1.36 billion next year. This revenue growth will be a 42% annual increase.
Rocket Lab has also delivered on other major milestones, including its $8 billion deal to acquire Iridium. The acquisition will give it highly sought-after spectrum and help unlock new markets. Specifically, Rocket Lab will gain access to the L-band spectrum, which could support additional services, potentially even a Starlink competitor.
Analysts are largely bullish on Rocket Lab shares. Berenberg initiated the coverage with a buy rating and a target of $83, much higher than where it is today. Bank of America’s Ronald Epstein has a target of $110, while Citizens’ Trevor Walsh has a target of $130. Some of the other top analysts with a bullish outlook on the company are from Cantor Fitzgerald, Citigroup, and Craig Hallum.
RKLB stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the RKLB stock has retreated from a high of $150 in May this year to the current $65.87. It has dropped below the strong pivot/reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $75.
The stock has slumped below 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a sign that bears are in control for now. On the positive side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reversed and moved to 40, its highest level since August 24.
The stock is also slowly forming a double-bottom pattern whose neckline is at $86.6, its highest point on August 10. A double-bottom pattern is a common reversal sign in technical analysis.
Therefore, the stock will likely bounce back in the near term, with the next key target being the neckline at $86. A move above that level will point to more gains towards $100.
Rocket Lab po selhání testu 1. stupně odkládá debut Neutronu na 4. čtvrtletí 2026. Přesto Stifel drží cílovou cenu 150 USD, což znamená více než dvojnásobný růst.
Rocket Lab sits deep in the red after a rocket test failure spooked investors, yet one top Wall Street analyst just doubled down with a target that implies the stock more than doubles from here. The question is whether the…
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $64.26, well below the Wall Street average price target of $111, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%.
Rocket Lab is a vertically integrated space company running the small-lift Electron rocket, the HASTE hypersonic testbed, an in-development medium-lift Neutron rocket, and a fast-growing space systems arm that builds satellites, components, and propulsion. Management has also announced a deal to acquire Iridium Communications to become a self-launching, integrated space and communications player.
Wall Street pays attention because Rocket Lab is one of the few pure-play alternatives to SpaceX with real government backlog. The gap between the stock and the average target has widened just as the company closes a landmark acquisition and pushes its biggest rocket toward the pad.
Neutron Slip and Dilution Deflated the Rally The primary catalyst was a Stage 1 tank test failure that pushed Neutron’s debut to Q4 2026, with management now saying the year-end launch window is narrowing. That single delay reset the timeline investors had been paying a premium for.
Shares are down 14.11% over the past month and sit roughly 57% below the 52-week high of $151. The S&P 500 was essentially flat over the same month at 0.05%, pointing to company-specific weakness.
Q2 revenue of $234.07 million grew 62% year over year and beat consensus, but GAAP EPS of -0.08 missed expectations after $8.58 million in acquisition-related costs. Add in $1.53 billion raised through an at-the-market equity program in the first half and dilution concerns intensified.
Why Stifel Still Sees a Double Analysts are staying with the story because the backlog drives the thesis. Rocket Lab ended Q2 with a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year, and management flagged more than $1 billion in new contracts signed already in Q3.
Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen carries the Street-high target of $150, which implies the stock more than doubles. His bull thesis rests on three pillars: Neutron commercialization expanding Rocket Lab into mega-constellation and defense payloads, an explosion in higher-margin Space Systems revenue, and continued Space Force and SDA wins as a reliable non-SpaceX prime. Treat these targets as one data point among many.
The defense pipeline backs him up. Rocket Lab has already booked the $397 million Flatellite contract for the Space Force SB-AMTI program, the $816 million SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 award, and work on the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon. The FY2027 Department of War request allocates $71.2 billion to the U.S. Space Force, a growth vector for space primes.
Coverage is heavily positive. Of 18 analysts, 3 rate the stock Strong Buy, 11 Buy, and 4 Hold, with none at Sell. The event everyone is watching is Neutron’s first flight, which management said would flip standalone free cash flow positive within a subsequent 18 to 24 month window.
Space Peers Sold Off in Unison Every peer here is trading well below its consensus target, putting RKLB in line with the group.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades near $62.31 against a $79.61 average target, roughly 28% upside. Shares are down 13.39% over the past month after a rough Q2 miss. Coverage skews cautious with 4 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells, the tamest posture in this group.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $14.81 versus a $29.50 target, roughly 99% implied upside. Seven of nine analysts rate it Buy after the Lanteris acquisition transformed it into a scaled space prime.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) trades at $18.12 against a $35.36 target, about 95% upside, and is down 24.28% in the past month despite a Q2 beat. Coverage skews Buy at 7, with 3 Hold and 1 Sell.
BlackSky Technology (NYSE:BKSY) is the group’s worst monthly performer at -29.7%, trading at $20.50 versus a $38.42 target, about 87% upside. All six covering analysts rate it Buy or Hold.
The largest analyst-implied upside sits with LUNR near 99%. Rocket Lab’s roughly 73% to consensus (and 133% to Stifel’s Street-high) puts it mid-pack, but with by far the largest market cap, deepest backlog, and lowest execution binary of the group.
Backlog Doing the Heavy Lifting Rocket Lab currently trades at $64.26 against an average target of $111 from 18 analysts, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%. Stifel’s Street-high of $150 implies the stock more than doubles.
Over the last month RKLB is down 14.11% while the S&P 500 was flat at 0.05%. Year to date, RKLB is off 7.88% versus the S&P 500’s 12.94% gain. On a one-year view the stock is still up 49.48%.
Forward estimates support the trajectory: revenue of $958 million for FY2026 rising to $1.36 billion for FY2027, though both years carry negative average EPS estimates.
Neutron Execution Is the Real Catalyst The bull case tightens if Neutron reaches the pad in Q4 2026 and the first flight succeeds cleanly. That single event unlocks the Iridium acquisition rationale, converts the $2.36 billion backlog faster, and gives the Stifel bull case runway. Add Golden Dome flow and additional SDA tranches, and the path to $111 (let alone $150) becomes credible.
The thesis breaks if the Neutron slip becomes a slip-and-slip. Another tank failure, an integration stumble on Iridium, or continued ATM dilution would break the thesis fast. The stock still trades at more than 50x sales, so patience is not free (riding a story stock at that multiple is workable if you plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor’s handbook).
The setup skews cautiously constructive. The backlog, defense wins, and analyst posture all point up, but Neutron on the pad is the milestone worth waiting for before conviction builds.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab byla po více než 40% poklesu akcií povýšena na býčí doporučení. Ve 2. čtvrtletí firma vykázala rekordní tržby 234,07 mil. USD, meziročně o 62 % více.
SummaryRocket Lab is upgraded to a bullish rating after a 40%+ stock pullback and strengthened fundamentals.The company delivered record Q2 revenue of $234.07M, up 62% YoY. A robust backlog shows demand remains solid.The Iridium acquisition expands RKLB's full-stack space infrastructure strategy and opens new satellite communications opportunities.Valuation has contracted to a forward P/S of 40, creating a favorable risk/reward setup despite near-term Neutron launch delays. J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Introduction In early June, just before the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, I provided an update for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB). It was shown that they were well positioned with their full-stack space infrastructure solutions and that demand
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Rocket Lab uvedl do výroby solární článek IMM Apex s účinností 31,5 % a o 40 % nižší hmotností. Je bez germaniových substrátů a má snížit náklady i problémy v dodavatelském řetězci.
LONG BEACH, Calif., Sept. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced the production release of Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex, the latest iteration of its next-generation solar cell designed to deliver exceptional efficiency and reliability for space applications. IMM Apex boasts a Beginning of Life solar conversion efficiency of 31.5% and 40% lower cell mass, giving it best-in-class specific power (watts per kilogram) while maintaining excellent radiation hardness and performance over temperature.
IMM Apex is free of the germanium substrates used for conventional, multi-junction solar cells produced for the last three decades. By eliminating reliance on this critical mineral, IMM Apex mitigates rising costs and supply chain constraints currently facing the space power industry.
Crucially, IMM Apex is a mechanical and electrical drop-in replacement for heritage solar cell products on germanium, meaning customers can integrate it into existing systems without major investments to re-tool for new cell technology.
IMM Apex builds on the proven success of Rocket Lab’s IMM cell technology, which powered NASA’s Ingenuity Mars Helicopter during its historic mission and has been powering satellites on orbit for more than a decade.
In addition to being free from germanium supply constraints, optimized manufacturing processes and targeted capital investments have enabled efficient manufacturing in multi-100-kilowatt volumes to meet growing demand.
“Rocket Lab is excited to bring this cutting-edge solar solution to market. IMM Apex delivers exceptional performance while addressing real-world challenges like rising material costs and supply chain constraints,” said Brad Clevenger, President of Rocket Lab USA. “With IMM Apex, customers gain access to a high-efficiency, lightweight, germanium-free product that combines proven reliability with faster production times. IMM Apex is designed to more cost-effectively power the most ambitious missions without compromising performance.”
IMM technology has undergone more than a decade of rigorous testing and qualification, ensuring its readiness for a wide range of customer needs and mission requirements. IMM Apex is available now, with ongoing advancements to support future applications.
IMM Apex adds to Rocket Lab’s long history of delivering reliable, high-efficiency solar solutions for critical missions. The company has provided space-grade solar technology to critical civil, national security and commercial space programs including the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA’s Artemis lunar explorations, and other interplanetary science missions. More than 1,100 satellites on orbit are powered by Rocket Lab solar products.
More information about Rocket Lab’s Space Solar solutions is available here.
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab is a leading space company that provides launch services, spacecraft, payloads and satellite components serving commercial, government, and national security markets. Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is the world’s most frequently launched orbital small rocket; its HASTE rocket provides hypersonic test launch capability for the U.S. government and allied nations; and its Neutron launch vehicle in development will unlock medium launch for constellation deployment, national security and exploration missions. Rocket Lab’s spacecraft and satellite components have enabled more than 1,700 missions spanning commercial, defense and national security missions including GPS, constellations, and exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and Venus. Rocket Lab is a publicly listed company on the Nasdaq stock exchange (RKLB). Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, and statements regarding our satellite capabilities, manufacturing scale, and constellation support are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/f82e86ee-aef3-4cfb-bb0b-118b5ca41bea
Rocket Lab Headquarters Rocket Lab Introduces High-Efficiency Solar Cell to Reduce Reliance on Supply-Constrained Critical M...
Rocket Lab získala dvě dodávkové objednávky SDN-B v hodnotě 12 milionů USD na bezpečnou optickou komunikaci pro vojenské operace. Firma plánuje v roce 2027 provozní demonstraci na oběžné dráze se satelitem Photon.
Key Takeaways RKLB secures two SDN-B orders to support secure optical communications for military operations.RKLB will demonstrate satellite-to-ground interoperability using its Photon spacecraft in orbit.RKLB's SDN-B work spans satellite development, communications technologies and mission operations. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) is expanding its role in military space communications after being selected for the U.S. Space Force’s Space Data Network (“SDN”) Consortium. In August 2026, the company announced two delivery orders worth a combined $12 million to support the Space Data Network Backbone (“SDN-B”), which is being developed as a secure, high-speed satellite communication network for military operations.
The contracts will support the design, testing and demonstration of secure optical communications in space, including interoperability between satellites and ground systems. Rocket Lab will use a company-built Photon spacecraft equipped with optical and network capabilities for an in-orbit demonstration, with an operational demonstration expected in 2027.
The SDN-B work gives Rocket Lab an opportunity to participate in a broader defense communications architecture rather than focusing solely on individual spacecraft or launch missions. The company’s involvement spans satellite development, communications technologies and mission operations, providing a foundation for supporting the different elements required for space-based connectivity.
The initial $12 million award is relatively small, but the strategic opportunity could be more important if Rocket Lab successfully demonstrates the required technology and interoperability. Successful execution could help the company pursue additional work tied to military satellite communications as the U.S. Space Force continues developing resilient and secure networks for global operations.
Companies Advancing Satellite CommunicationsThe growing need for secure and resilient satellite communications is creating opportunities for companies developing connectivity infrastructure for government and commercial users. Viasat Inc. (VSAT - Free Report) and Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM - Free Report) are also active in the satellite communication market.
Viasat provides satellite communications and connectivity solutions for government and commercial customers, with capabilities spanning satellite networks and secure communications.
Iridium Communications operates a global satellite communication network, providing voice and data services to government, commercial and other specialized users.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share suggests year-over-year growth of 81.48% and 240%, respectively.
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RKLB Stock Is Trading at a PremiumRocket Lab is trading at a premium relative to the industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 32.05X compared with the industry average of 7.55X.
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RKLB Stock Price PerformanceOver the past year, RKLB shares have rallied 34.6% against the industry’s 0.1% decline.
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RKLB’s Zacks RankRocket Lab currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It's been nearly five years since Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.70%), announced plans to build a Neutron rocketship in 2020. The 43-meter-tall craft, incorporating an expendable second stage within a reusable first stage, can carry 13 tons of cargo to Low Earth Orbit -- 43 times the payload of Rocket Lab's current Electron rocket.
Assuming, that is to say, it ever launches.
Rocket Lab, you see, has been promising to launch Neutron for years -- first positing a 2024 launch date, then "mid-2025," followed by late 2025, Q1 2026, and most recently late 2026. Last month, the deadline slipped yet again when Beck told investors on a conference call he was targeting "delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026."
That sounds like a reiteration of the late 2026 goal. Unfortunately, delivering the rocket to the pad is just the first step. Next follows a series of pre-launch tests preceding the actual launch.
And as a result, it's entirely possible we won't see Neutron take off before 2027.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
"An-ti-ci-pa-tion, anticipa-yay-shun! [Rocket Lab's] making us wait" As you can imagine, investors in Rocket Lab stock are getting just a wee bit impatient with all the delays. And Rocket Lab stock is down 24% in the past two weeks, or nearly $20 per share.
The distress is understandable. (Still, one imagines they'd be even more upset if Rocket Lab moved too fast and launched a rocket that blew up!) Bearing that in mind, here's another date that Rocket Lab investors might want to focus on instead, just in case Rocket Lab has to delay launch yet again:
June 30, 2027.
What happens on June 30, 2027? Three months ago, Rocket Lab announced it would acquire iconic satellite communications company Iridium Communications (IRDM +0.55%) in an $8 billion deal slated to close in "mid-2027."
Granted, that deadline's a bit fuzzy. But June 30, 2027, is about as close to mid-2027 as one can get, so that's the date I'm hoping we will see Iridium officially become part of Rocket Lab. And why is this important?
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Why Iridium is important to Rocket Lab Neutron is great and all, don't get me wrong. I'm personally looking forward to seeing it fly -- maybe even in person!
But as an investor, I realize that even the $50 million in revenue Neutron will bring to Rocket Lab with each flight, with 44% gross margins, pales in significance to the $884 million in annual revenue -- with 72% gross profit margins, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence -- that Rocket Lab will receive once it acquires Iridium.
Analysts forecast that in 2027, Iridium will earn more than $135 million in GAAP profit and generate more than $313 million in positive free cash flow. That's enough profit and cash to offset all the losses and cash burn at Rocket Lab, and turn Rocket Lab instantly profitable and free cash flow-positive -- a full year before Wall Street analysts anticipated that would happen.
To me, this makes June 30, 2027, the date to watch. Assuming Rocket Lab can close the deal on time, it'll be a much more attractive investment on that date -- with Neutron or without it.
Rocket Lab je asi 58 % pod letošními maximy, i když tržby v posledním čtvrtletí meziročně vzrostly o 62 %. Klíčový raketový program Neutron se nyní očekává až na začátek roku 2027.
This summer, we saw the debut of Space Exploration Technologies -- otherwise known as SpaceX -- stock in a massive initial public offering (IPO). We also saw share prices across space-economy stocks collapse after said IPO, with no better example than Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.70%), one of the sector's biggest names in public markets.
Shares of the rocket flight and space services company trade down about 58% from the highs set earlier this year, even though its revenue grew 62% year over year last quarter. A falling share price and a growing business can develop into a great buying opportunity.
Does that mean now is the time to buy the dip on Rocket Lab stock?
Image source: Getty Images.
More Neutron delays There is a lot going on with Rocket Lab's business, but none is more important to its future than a product that doesn't generate any revenue today: its Neutron rocket.
The Neutron is a larger rocket type than its existing workhorse, named the Electron. Larger payloads mean each launch can carry more products into orbit for third parties (mainly satellites), resulting in more revenue per launch. It is similar in size to SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, and the Neutron already has numerous proposed orders from commercial operators and the United States government.
So, what's the problem? Well, originally, the Neutron rocket was planned to debut in 2024. Over the last few years, this first launch date has been consistently pushed back, and most recently, it looks like it won't happen until the beginning of 2027. Without the Neutron performing test flights and eventually carrying commercial payloads, Rocket Lab's launch revenue will remain sub-scale compared to competitor SpaceX.
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Aiming for fully integrated services For those who are taking a long-term view, it may not matter exactly which quarter the Neutron begins flying, only that it eventually starts flying regularly without mishaps, helping Rocket Lab's launch division take a great leap forward.
The Neutron brings together Rocket Lab's comprehensive long-term vision: to be a fully integrated seller of products and services for the space economy. In fact, its space systems segment -- which houses divisions that make items such as satellites, optical lenses, software, and robotics for third parties in space -- generated more revenue last quarter ($189.5 million) than its launch division ($44.6 million).
Once the Neutron is up and running, it should lead to even more contracts and revenue from space systems, because Rocket Lab can then sell its launch service and the sub-components of customer payloads as a bundle.
Even longer-term, Rocket Lab plans to sell its own space-economy services. This is being accelerated with its acquisition of Iridium Communications, which operates a satellite internet constellation. Leveraging its expertise in space systems development, Rocket Lab plans to accelerate Iridium's growth to help it compete more directly with SpaceX's Starlink service.
Data by YCharts.
Time to buy the dip on Rocket Lab? There is a lot to like about the potential growth of Rocket Lab. When you add up Neutron, space systems, and the Iridium acquisition, it wouldn't be shocking to see its trailing revenue of $769 million grow into the billions within a few years.
You might be thinking this makes the stock an easy buy-the-dip candidate. There are a few problems, though. Rocket Lab has never generated a profit, and its gross margins are quite low given the heavy capital intensity of rocket launches and space manufacturing. This needs to be taken into account when valuing shares.
The stock's shares don't look that cheap, either, even after getting cut in half within the last few months. It has a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 48, which implies many years of growth are already priced in. This is 48 times its trailing revenue, let alone any potential earnings power hidden in all of Rocket Lab's upfront investments.
Even if a company has a blue ocean of growth ahead, valuation still matters, which is why investors should not yet buy the dip in Rocket Lab stock.
Neutron od Rocket Lab stále nemá pevné datum startu a první let může sklouznout do roku 2027. Firma čeká, že by i roční zpoždění ubralo jen asi 50 milionů USD z tržeb.
In the summer of 2025, I took a little road trip -- all the way out to the Virginia coast. There I witnessed firsthand the grand opening of Rocket Lab's (RKLB +0.10%) newest and grandest piece of infrastructure, a towering launch pad from which the first Neutron rocket would (I was assured) make its inaugural voyage in just a few short months.
It's been a year since I made that trip. Neutron still hasn't launched.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
What is Neutron? Sir Peter Beck, the founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, first announced he would build the Neutron medium-lift vehicle in 2020, envisioning it as a 40-meter-tall, "8-ton class reusable rocket" powered by seven Archimedes engines in its reusable first stage and a single vacuum-optimized Archimedes in its second stage (carried internally by the first stage).
Neutron has since evolved into a 43-meter rocket powered by nine engines in the first stage, capable of lifting a payload of 13 tons (if the rocket is reusable; 15 tons if it is expended). And in a big reveal at the grand opening, Rocket Lab dropped a hint that the new and improved Neutron might even be capable of carrying astronauts to space.
How big a deal is Neutron? Thirteen tons of reusable payload carried within a five-meter payload fairing makes Neutron ideal for launching entire constellations of small satellites into orbit -- aligning perfectly with Rocket Lab's plan to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM +0.66%), which deploys and operates such constellations. This purchase will transform Rocket Lab into a wholly vertically integrated space company that can build and launch and that can deliver satellite services on its own.
Combined with the potential to launch humans as well as satellites into orbit, it opens new markets for Rocket Lab -- crew transfer to the International Space Station or private space stations, for example; missions to the Moon; even space tourism, potentially.
All of this is in addition to simply using Neutron as a commercial launcher for other companies' payloads. At an estimated $50 million launch price and a target cadence of seven launches per year, Neutron could add $350 million a year to Rocket Lab's revenue stream.
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Delayed! At this point, a lot of investors are worried because Neutron hasn't launched yet -- indeed, it doesn't have a firm target date for launch anymore. While there's still hope the rocket might take off before the end of 2027, many pundits speculate that Neutron's inaugural launch may slip into 2027.
How bad would this be for Rocket Lab?
Although it clearly hasn't been great news for Rocket Lab stock lately, in the long term, it won't affect Rocket Lab's business all that much. As Peter Beck has explained, the company plans to launch Neutron only once in its first year of operation (then three times in its second year and five times in its third). At $50 million per launch, therefore, even a full year's delay would subtract only about $50 million from Rocket Lab's forecast revenue.
That's not enough to move the needle or prevent Rocket Lab from becoming profitable in 2027 by virtue of the Iridium merger. Admittedly, if that should fall through as well, there would be more cause for near-term concern. But in and of itself, a few months' delay in Neutron's first launch shouldn't affect Rocket Lab's business much at all.
ARK Invest koupil 705 102 akcií Rocket Lab ve dvou obchodních seancích, zatímco titul za poslední týden klesl o 5,51 %. Nákup přichází po slabším období, kdy ARK zřejmě vidí pokles jako vstupní bod.
ARK Invest just loaded up on a rocket company trading at a fraction of SpaceX's valuation, and the timing raises a pointed question about whether the recent selloff is a warning sign or a once-in-a-cycle entry point.
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Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest scooped up 705,102 shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) across two trading sessions, according to TipRanks’ reporting on the firm’s daily fund disclosures. The buying came as the stock extended a losing streak, with shares slipping 5.51% over the past week and trading at $63.57 in Friday’s session. The purchase suggests ARK views the pullback as an entry point into a name it has long positioned as a core space-economy holding, even as it trimmed positions elsewhere in its book, including Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).
A $38 Billion Company Versus a Trillion-Dollar Rival [stock_chart symbol=”RKLB”]
The size gap frames the scale of the bet. SpaceX carried a market capitalization of roughly $1.14 trillion as of September 4, 2026, according to Google Finance. Rocket Lab’s market capitalization stood at roughly $38.04 billion as of the same date. The publicly traded pure-play alternative for space-launch exposure remains a fraction of the private launch giant, whose recent IPO reset investor expectations for the sector. Investors seeking direct SpaceX exposure have gravitated to fund vehicles such as the Destiny Tech100 SpaceX proxy (NASDAQ:SPCX), which has gained 19.48% over the past month.
Why Rocket Lab Is SpaceX’s Closest Public Rival Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket has flown 13 launches this year with 100% mission success, serving the small-satellite market. Its medium-lift Neutron rocket, designed to compete more directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, is targeting delivery to the pad in Q4 2026, though it has not yet flown. Cantor Fitzgerald has characterized Rocket Lab as the premier alternative to SpaceX. The operational gap remains vast: SpaceX said it delivered roughly 2,500 tons a year to orbit via Falcon and accounts for 80 to 90% of total Earth mass to orbit per year.
More Than a Launch Company Space Systems drives the majority of Rocket Lab’s business, outpacing launch. In Q2 2026, Space Systems revenue reached $189.5 million, while Launch Services revenue was $44.6 million. Rocket Lab has stacked acquisitions to widen the moat, closing deals for Mynaric, Motiv, and an announced deal for Iridium Communications. Iridium, if closed, brings a constellation of 66 satellites and more than 2.5 million subscribers, positioning Rocket Lab to build, launch and operate its own constellations. The company posted $234.07 million in Q2 revenue, up 61.99% year over year, with backlog reaching $2.36 billion. Details are available in the company’s Q2 2026 earnings exhibit filed with the SEC.
Recent Decline in Context Rocket Lab is down 14.33% over the past month and 8.53% year to date. The one-year picture looks different: shares are up 46.59%, and up 371.97% over five years. ARK’s buying into the recent weakness fits a pattern of adding to conviction names when short-term sentiment softens. CEO Peter Beck framed the quarter this way: “Q2 was another fantastic quarter for Rocket Lab, highlighted by record results and massive momentum that has continued well after the close.”
What Has to Go Right Management guided Q3 revenue to $250M-$265M, and expects roughly 45.5% of current backlog to convert into revenue within the next twelve months. For the bull case to work, Neutron has to fly, and the backlog has to convert. Beck told analysts that the quarter after Neutron’s first successful test launch would mark the pivot toward positive cash flow, with cash-flow positivity expected 18 to 24 months after that pivot. Wood’s purchase places ARK on that timeline. Keep an eye on the stock as the launch window narrows into year-end.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rocket Lab za poslední rok vzrostl o 43,7 % díky rozšiřování space platformy, postupu programu Neutron a akvizicím Mynaric a Motiv. Backlog dosáhl 2,36 miliardy USD.
Key Takeaways Rocket Lab strengthens its space platform across launch services, space systems and national security.RKLB advances Neutron with qualification testing, hardware integration and Archimedes engine testing.Rocket Lab's Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions boost optical communications, robotics and vertical integration. Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB - Free Report) shares have risen 43.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense Equipment industry’s growth of 2.7%. The company is driving growth by expanding its end-to-end space platform, advancing Neutron, and strengthening launch and space systems capabilities. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions, along with rising U.S. national security opportunities, support long-term growth.
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Meanwhile, stocks like Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS - Free Report) and TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG - Free Report) have underperformed the industry during the same period. Shares of DRS and TDG have fallen 9.8% and 9.6%, respectively.
With RKLB shares gaining over the past year, investors may have positive views. Let’s examine the factors and assess the stock’s investment prospects to make an informed decision.
Factors Boosting RKLB Stock's GrowthRocket Lab is strengthening its end-to-end space platform across launch services and space systems. Electron and HASTE support commercial and government missions, while Neutron is expected to expand its addressable market into medium-lift constellation and defense launches. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions further enhance optical communications, satellite mechanisms and robotics capabilities, strengthening vertical integration.
The company made significant progress in the second quarter of 2026, advancing Neutron qualification testing, first-flight hardware integration, Archimedes engine testing and reusable fairing systems. Rocket Lab had completed 87 Electron missions and delivered more than 250 spacecraft through June 30. Its backlog reached $2.36 billion, providing greater visibility into future revenues.
In August 2026, Rocket Lab announced its onboarding to the U.S. Space Force’s NITE-STAR IDIQ program, which has a $981 million ceiling. The selection allows Rocket Lab to compete for future task orders covering space and ground systems, digital environments and mission operations, expanding its opportunities in national security space and strengthening its position as an end-to-end space solutions provider.
Earnings Estimates for RKLB StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for RKLB’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a rise of 44.44% over the past 60 days.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Leonardo DRS’ 2026 EPS calls for a jump of 5.38% in the past 60 days. The estimate for TransDigm Group’s fiscal 2026 EPS implies an increase of 2.47% over the same period.
Debt Position of RKLBCurrently, Rocket Lab’s total debt to capital is 0.83%, lower than the industry’s average of 61.47%. It indicates that the company can run its business efficiently with much lower debt levels than its industry peers.
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Liquidity Position of RKLBRKLB has a current ratio of 5.48 compared with its industry’s average of 2.06. The ratio, being more than one, indicates that RKLB possesses sufficient capital to pay off its short-term debt obligations.
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Its industry peers, Leonardo DRS and TransDigm Group, also maintain current ratios above one. DRS has a current ratio of 1.92, while TDG holds 3.02.
RKLB Stock Trades at a PremiumRocket Lab is currently trading at 31.3X, a premium compared to its industry’s 7.64X on a forward 12-month Price/Sales basis.
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What Should an Investor Do?Rocket Lab is benefiting from expanding launch and space systems capabilities, progress on Neutron and rising national security opportunities. The Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions further strengthen vertical integration, while its growing backlog and broader end-to-end space platform support long-term growth prospects.
Given RKLB’s strong share price performance, improving earnings estimates, lower debt levels and solid liquidity position, investors may consider including this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock in their portfolios at current levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Rocket Lab je stále pod tlakem, když akcie za poslední tři měsíce spadly o 57 % z nedávných maxim. Firma zároveň čeká na dokončení dohody s Iridium Communications za 8 miliard USD.
The summer of the space economy is turning into a pumpkin of a fall. Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.48%) -- a space stock that saw its shares soar around the Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) initial public offering -- has now seen its shares fall 57% from its highs in just a few months.
Today, it trades at a market cap of $38 billion and is slated to try to close its massive deal for Iridium Communications soon. I remain bullish on the company's business prospects as it tries to become the second space economy prime contractor alongside SpaceX.
However, I am still not buying unless shares reach a lower level this year. Here's why.
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Ambitious growth plans It is difficult to boil down Rocket Lab's ambitions for the space economy into just a few paragraphs. The company already has a solid footing in the rocket launch business with its small Electron rocket. As of the latest quarterly results, 90+ contracts have now been signed for Electron launches, the highest level in the company's history.
Other revenue today comes from the growth of Rocket Lab's space systems segment, which builds systems for third parties and the U.S. government that can be deployed into space. For example, it just won a contract with the Space Force to build multiple geostationary satellites. This is just one of the many contracts being won in this division, which is why the company's total backlog has now grown to $2.3 billion.
Rocket Lab is not resting on its laurels with these existing business lines. It is in the process of acquiring Iridium Communications, a satellite internet provider that will help Rocket Lab more directly compete with SpaceX, for $8 billion in a half-stock, half-cash deal. Lastly, Rocket Lab is working hard on debuting its Neutron rocket, which has been years in development and is much larger than the Electron. It will either debut with its first full test flight later this year or in early 2027.
Image source: Getty Images.
Path to profitability Despite all these investments, Rocket Lab is not profitable, with a negative free cash flow of $371 million over the last 12 months.
There are a few ways it can scale up to profitability. First, the acquisition of Iridium will be an immediate boost, as the company generated $288 million in positive free cash flow over the last 12 months. Second, once the Neutron starts launching for customers, it will go from a science-project money pit to a revenue generator for the business. Third, the continued scaling of the space systems and Electron business will lead to operating leverage.
All of these feats may take a few years to achieve, but Rocket Lab is well on its way.
RKLB Free Cash Flow data by YCharts
Why Rocket Lab is not yet a buy, but should be on your watch list As a space economy winner, Rocket Lab is most frequently compared to SpaceX. Right now, before the Iridium acquisition closes, Rocket Lab stock has a market cap of $38 billion. SpaceX is approaching $2 trillion. This is a bit of a misleading comparison, because SpaceX is trying to become an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure player, which Rocket Lab has never mentioned it wants to do.
A good way to value Rocket Lab stock today is on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which takes out any comparisons to megacap stocks and strictly starts to focus on the fundamentals. On a trailing basis, Rocket Lab trades at a P/S ratio of 48. To be fair, there is a lot of growth coming down the line from the Neutron and this massive backlog, but right now, Rocket Lab trades at a steep revenue multiple. The S&P 500 average is just 3.8, and that is at a record high.
Rocket Lab is a promising business, and I think it will generate billions in revenue in the years ahead. However, I would wait to buy until a much lower price materializes, maybe half of today's level, even though the stock is already down more than 50% from its highs in the last three months.
Rocket Lab úspěšně vypustila 94. misi Electron a dopravila družici StriX pro Synspective na nízkou oběžnou dráhu Země ve výšce 575 km. Jde o 100% úspěšnost všech startů pro Synspective.
MAHIA, New Zealand, Sept. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today successfully launched its 94th Electron rocket to deploy the latest Earth-imaging satellite to space for Synspective.
The ‘Owl Around The World’ mission launched from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 12:01 am NZST on September 3, 2026. Electron successfully deployed the StriX satellite to a 575km low Earth orbit, further building out Synspective’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging constellation and expanding the company’s capabilities for advanced ground monitoring and Earth observation.
Mission Highlights:
Strong Launch Cadence: This mission marked Rocket Lab’s 94th overall Electron launch and 15th launch of 2026. Electron remains the world’s most frequently launched small-lift orbital rocketFlawless Launch for Synspective: Today’s flawless delivery of the latest StriX satellite to space continues Rocket Lab’s 100% mission success record across all Synspective launches.Custom Fairing: A specially-configured Electron fairing was built to match the exact dimensions of the StriX satellite: a highlight of Rocket Lab’s dedicated mission service for its long-time partnership with Synspective.More Missions: Rocket Lab has been the sole launch provider for Synspective's constellation since 2020, with another 16 missions booked on Electron to deliver the rest of their constellation to orbit before 2030. ‘Owl Around The World’ launch images: click here
‘Owl Around The World’ launch broadcast: click here
About Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) is an end-to-end space company delivering rockets, satellites, and spacecraft components for commercial, government, and defense missions. Driven by its industry-leading small-lift rockets Electron and HASTE and its upcoming reusable Neutron medium-lift rocket, Rocket Lab delivers reliable and responsive launch for the world’s most important missions from constellation deployment to missile defense. Rocket Lab’s satellites and components have powered more than 1,700 missions in Earth orbit, as well as deep-space exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Learn more at www.rocketlabcorp.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development, operational expansion and business strategy, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “strategy,” “future,” “could,” “would,” “project,” “plan,” “target,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investor Relations section of our website at https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change.
A video accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/a3f5cb14-5cb0-4894-8559-c441e72935dd
Rocket Lab - 'Owl Around The World' Launch Rocket Lab's 94th Electron launch and latest mission for Synspective.
