Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.15%) has some big goals. It delivered 22,559 electric vehicles in the first half of 2026. To reach its full-year target, it must deliver another 42,400 to 47,400 vehicles in the second half.
This would require about 88% to 110% more deliveries than in the first half. Management also expects vehicle deliveries to be weighted toward the fourth quarter as R2 production ramps.
Let's see if Rivian can deliver.
Image source: Getty Images.
R2 needs a scale to become profitable Rivian began delivering the R2, an affordable mid-size SUV, to customers on June 9. However, R2 is currently hurting Rivian's profitability as production ramps. In Q2, Rivian recorded about $100 million of additional costs related to the launch. The company's automotive business posted a $36 million gross loss. Rivian expects higher R2 production and deliveries to help its automotive business reach positive gross profit by 2026's end.
Part of the $100 million in extra R2 costs is from temporary expenses such as faster shipping and higher payments to suppliers. Rivian expects costs to decline as production rises. Higher output should also help spread factory costs across more vehicles, improving profitability.
Rivian expects the cost of R2's materials and components to be about half that of R1, while other production costs should fall by more than 50%. This is based on Rivian's expected average vehicle costs at the end of 2027.
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The fourth quarter will be the real test for R2 Rivian's biggest near-term focus is getting suppliers ready for higher volumes. It started R2 production on one shift, while the second shift is not expected to add significant volume until the fourth quarter.
Rivian is also testing demand at the higher price end of the R2 lineup. The R2 Performance starts at $57,990, while the lower-priced $44,990 Standard model will not arrive until 2027.
The fourth quarter should show whether the R2 ramp is improving Rivian's economics. Deliveries need to rise sharply, but losses per vehicle also need to narrow. Otherwise, higher volumes alone will not make the ramp successful.
Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key executive departures of public companies, especially young companies, can raise a number of red flags and problems. Some CEO departures can cause the stock price to drop immediately, but even lower level executive departures can cause ongoing projects to stall, take with them years of industry experience, client relationships, as well as in-house know-how. Numerous departures can lower morale or signal hidden financial problems, board fights, or worse. That sets the context to explain to investors why Rivian's (RIVN +2.73%) recent CFO departure is more evolution (more on this in a second) compared to Lucid's (LCID -1.07%) that signals deeper trouble.
Rivian's evolution Let's first look at Rivian's recent departure: CFO Claire McDonough is stepping down at the end of October after nearly six years to become the CFO of GE Vernova. At first glance, this could raise investors' eyebrows as the company is currently at the most important point in Rivian's young history: the R2 production ramp. That said, it's really more of an evolution.
Image source: Rivian.
Consider that McDonough helped steer Rivian successfully through the electric vehicle (EV) maker's $13.7 billion IPO, one of the largest in U.S. history. McDonough's leadership also helped develop key strategic partnerships, such as Rivian's highly valuable joint venture with Volkswagen, among other things, such as cost-reduction initiatives that helped drive gross profits.
With the ongoing R2 production ramp, however, one could argue that Rivian is simply evolving to meet the different skill sets needed. McDonough checked all the boxes for what's needed from a start-up CFO: fundraising, capital injection, and corporate structuring. Now, as Rivian transitions to a focus on mass manufacturing, scaling the R2, and continuing to push toward profitability, perhaps the time is just right for a different style of CFO.
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There seems to be no red flags raised by Rivian's CFO leaving after a transition process -- Lucid, however, can't say the same of its departures.
A deeper crisis? While the high-profile Rivian departure was unusual for the young company, Lucid has had a sweeping overhaul of its executive suite. Starting from the top with former CEO & CTO, Peter Rawlinson, the founder abruptly resigned in early 2025, and under the newly appointed CEO, Silvio Napoli, dramatic changes were made. Lucid cut the number of executives reporting to Napoli in half and replaced nearly the entire executive suite.
Taoufiq Boussaid, former Lucid CFO, exited recently in July as part of Napoli's restructuring, while another high-profile name, Marc Winterhoff, who served as interim CEO and was supposed to stay on board, had his role completely eliminated during a 18% workforce reduction in June. Other notable departures include Eric Bach, Chief Engineer and Senior Vice President of Product, who was a 10-year veteran who led the development of Lucid Air, left on bad terms, and filed a wrongful termination lawsuit. The list truly goes on, including Emad Dlala, VP of Engineering & Software, Sanjay Chandra, VP of IT, Claudia Gast, Strategy Chief, and Michael Bell, SVP of Digital.
These two are not the same Rivian's recent CFO transition announcement may have surprised some investors, given the timing of the R2 production ramp, but McDonough is staying on to ensure a smooth transition and will leave on good terms for a solid opportunity. That pales in comparison to the near-exodus that Lucid is seeing from the top down, in addition to sweeping restructuring and multiple rounds of layoffs.
Think about it this way. Lucid investors, who rightfully can boast they are invested in a company that has produced some of the most advanced EVs out there, have lost the core driving force of its engineering and vision -- the Founder, CEO, and CTO are all out. It's perhaps unsurprising that, with sweeping moves, Lucid has delayed its more affordable midsize EV, the Cosmos, continues to bleed cash, pulled its production guidance, laid off a chunk of its workforce, and has hired AlixPartners, a firm known for corporate turnarounds and restructuring.
If investors want to get into the potentially lucrative future of the EV industry, Rivian's executive stability is but one reason it appears to be a far better long-term investment than rival Lucid.
MarketBeat Week in Review – 08/24 - 08/28Rivian Automotive NASDAQ: RIVN said early customer and media feedback for its R2 electric SUV has been strong as the company ramps production and works toward broader autonomy capabilities, including supervised point-to-point driving later this year and an eyes-off system targeted for 2027.
Speaking at a Goldman Sachs event, Chip Newcom, Rivian’s vice president of investor relations, said the company has been collecting $100 refundable deposits from prospective R2 buyers and inviting customers in waves to configure vehicles and submit purchase intentions. Conversion rates from those reservations have been “very good” and are trending ahead of Rivian’s prior expectations, he said.
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What Rising Delivery Forecasts Say About Rivian's Stock ProspectsNewcom said interest has continued as new vehicle trims are introduced, including the Coastal Cloud trim. While he described the R2 launch as still being in its early stages, he said the initial reviews and feedback suggest the vehicle is achieving the intended product-market fit.
R2 Production Ramp Remains Underway Rivian is continuing to ramp R2 manufacturing at its Normal, Illinois, plant and still expects to add a second production shift during the third quarter. Newcom said the company is managing the supplier ramp process and noted that vehicle output can move only as quickly as the slowest supplier in its supply chain.
MarketBeat Week in Review – 07/06 - 07/10The company’s longer-term cost objective remains a roughly 50% reduction in R2 bill of materials compared with the R1 platform once R2 reaches full production scale. Newcom said Rivian incurred about $100 million in incremental cost of goods sold during the second quarter related to the R2 ramp and expects further ramp-related costs in the third quarter.
Rivian expects those costs to begin reversing in the fourth quarter as it works toward becoming automotive gross-profit positive on an exit-rate basis by year-end. According to Newcom, increased R2 deliveries and better fixed-cost absorption across the Normal plant’s paint, stamping and other operations will be key contributors.
“It’s all about scaling and building more R2s,” Newcom said when asked whether the target relies on unusual pricing or cost-reduction assumptions.
Autonomy Development Targets Supervised Driving This Year James Philbin, Rivian’s senior vice president of autonomy and AI, said the company is making progress on its supervised point-to-point driving feature, which it plans to introduce toward the end of the year. The work includes scaling models and data, validating system performance and testing vehicles on public roads.
Philbin said the remaining technical focus is on ensuring the system behaves in a manner that feels natural to drivers while maintaining safety. That includes avoiding overly conservative operation and appropriately handling vehicle speed. He said the technology has shown encouraging performance in situations including construction zones and narrow-road negotiations, though further validation is required before release.
Rivian’s target for eyes-off driving in 2027 is based on continued development of the same end-to-end software system, Philbin said. The company expects to build confidence through exposure to more long-tail driving scenarios and a greater number of miles.
Philbin added that Rivian has access to GPU capacity through Amazon Web Services, supported by Rivian’s relationship with Amazon, that should meet its AI training needs over the next six to nine months. He said the company will continue to monitor the market for computing capacity beyond that period.
Rivian is also seeing Autonomy+ adoption track better than expected, Philbin said, describing the products as “sticky” once customers become accustomed to using the features. He said the R2 could appeal both to customers migrating from internal-combustion vehicles and to EV buyers seeking more advanced driver-assistance functions.
Custom Silicon and Robotaxi Plans Vidya Rajagopalan, Rivian’s senior vice president of electrical hardware, said the company developed its RAP1 custom processor to improve cost, performance and development speed. Because Rivian designs the hardware alongside its vehicle and autonomy software, it can tailor the silicon to physical-AI and autonomous-driving applications rather than rely on data-center-oriented merchant chips, she said.
Rajagopalan said Rivian has had the silicon in-house for more than a year and a half and expects hardware characterization testing to be substantially complete within about a month and a half. The company has vehicles operating with the chip and has exercised public features including Universal Hands-Free, Lane Change on Command and Highway Assist on the platform.
She said the Gen 3 system remains on track for late 2026, with lower-performance configurations expected to cost less than Gen 2 hardware. Rivian has not announced when Gen 3 architecture might reach the R1 platform. Point-to-point functionality, however, is expected to be available on both Gen 2 and Gen 3 systems at launch, according to Rajagopalan.
On Rivian’s partnership with Uber, Newcom said Uber is expected to provide $1.25 billion in equity capital over several years. Rivian has already received $300 million and expects another $250 million upon reaching a milestone later this year. The remaining funding is tied to technical milestones related to an L4-capable R2 robotaxi and expansion to as many as 25 markets globally, including at least one in Europe.
The agreement includes an initial plan for Uber or its fleet partners to purchase 10,000 vehicles, with an option for another 40,000. Newcom said Rivian also expects to receive software licensing fees for vehicles operating with its driver system, though the company has not disclosed pricing for those fees.
Rivian plans testing in San Francisco, Miami and Chicago by the end of the year, Philbin said, with expert-driver teams already collecting data and validating the system. The company sees robotaxis as a step toward personal Level 4 vehicles rather than its ultimate destination.
About Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN)Rivian Automotive, Inc is an American automotive technology company specializing in the design, development and manufacture of electric vehicles. The company is best known for its all-electric R1 platform, which underpins the R1T pickup truck and R1S sport utility vehicle. In addition to consumer products, Rivian has secured a significant commercial contract to produce electric delivery vans for a leading e-commerce provider, underscoring its capability to serve both retail and fleet customers.
Founded in 2009 by engineer and entrepreneur Robert “RJ” Scaringe, Rivian has grown from a research-focused startup into a publicly traded corporation.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
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Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) are trading marginally lower Friday afternoon, demonstrating relative resilience compared to the broader electric vehicle and high-growth technology sectors. Here’s what investors need to know.
Rivian Automotive shares are consolidating. What’s next for RIVN stock? Macro Rate Fears Weigh on Growth AssetsThe modest decline comes as broader market sentiment turned cautious following economic data releases. Shares of growth companies are trading lower after August’s hotter-than-expected payrolls report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its next meeting.
A stronger U.S. dollar and higher rate expectations are weighing on growth stocks by reducing investor appetite for higher-risk assets.
Rivian Rolls Out Major RivianOS 2 Software UpgradeHelping cushion the macroeconomic selling pressure, EV news outlet Electrek reported Friday that Rivian has officially began rolling out RivianOS 2 (version 2026.31), marking the company’s most significant software overhaul since the original R1 launched.
The update unifies Rivian’s entire vehicle lineup, including first-generation R1s, second-generation R1s, and the mass-market R2, onto a single software foundation for the first time.
Key features include a rebuilt user interface with context-aware controls, real-time police and speed-camera navigation alerts, Unreal Engine 5 visual renderings for newer hardware, and an enhanced AI layer called Unified Intelligence.
The rollout also expands monetization for Rivian’s Connect+ subscription platform ($14.99 per month), adding dedicated weather apps and mobile trip management.
RIVN Shares Pause FridayRIVN Price Action: Rivian Automotive shares were down 0.88% at $15.77 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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As the electric vehicle (EV) market matures, investors are weighing the stability of a global giant against the high-growth potential of an American newcomer. Is BYD (BYDDF -0.20%) or Rivian Automotive (RIVN -1.60%) the better buy?
BYD is a vertically integrated leader dominating the Chinese market and expanding rapidly abroad, while Rivian targets the premium North American truck and SUV segment. This matchup compares a profitable, massive-scale manufacturer with a younger, cash-intensive disruptor to see which offers the better risk-to-reward profile for your capital. Both companies are navigating a shifting landscape as global adoption of electric vehicles enters a more competitive phase.
The case for BYDBYD is a global powerhouse that manufactures electric vehicles and batteries, making it a heavyweight among consumer discretionary stocks. The company operates in more than 120 countries, with its latest annual report noting significant growth in Latin America and Europe. It also maintains a massive workforce, reporting nearly 870,000 employees at the end of 2025.
In its 2025 fiscal year (FY), revenue reached $118.1 billion, which represents a growth rate of 2.2% over the prior year. The company reported net income of $4.8 billion for the period. This resulted in a net margin of 4.1%, which reflects a decrease from the 5.2% net margin reported in FY 2024.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was 0.7x, which compares total debt to shareholder equity to show how a company funds its assets. The current ratio, used to measure the ability to pay short-term bills, was 0.8x. Free cash flow was negative at $14.5 billion, representing the cash generated after accounting for all capital expenditures.
Rivian builds electric trucks and SUVs for consumers and high-capacity delivery vans for commercial clients. A major commercial customer is Amazon (AMZN -0.66%), which collaborates on vehicle design and provides consent for Rivian to sell to other firms. Additionally, Rivian continues to operate its direct-to-consumer sales model, which bypasses traditional franchised dealerships to control the buyer experience.
In FY 2025, revenue reached $5.4 billion, indicating an 8.4% increase over the $5.0 billion generated in the previous year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $3.6 billion, which narrowed from the $4.7 billion loss in FY 2024. This resulted in a net margin of -67.7% as the company works toward achieving unit profitability.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was 1.5x. The current ratio was 2.3x, suggesting the company maintains a larger buffer for short-term liabilities than its peer. Free cash flow was negative at $2.5 billion, and the company remains dependent on utilizing a Department of Energy loan facility to fund its expansion.
Risk profile comparisonBYD faces significant risks from trade tariffs and protectionist policies in major markets such as Europe and North America. Domestic competition in China remains fierce, which can put downward pressure on vehicle pricing and overall profitability. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions could impact the company's ability to maintain its global supply chain, and shifting consumer preferences in its home market remains a constant concern.
Rivian faces challenges in scaling production at its Illinois facility and managing single-source component dependencies. The company remains dependent on raising substantial additional equity and debt financing to fund its high research costs. Its partnership with Volkswagen (VLKPF +1.42%) introduces risks if the joint venture fails to meet technical demands, and trade tariffs on rare earth minerals could increase production costs.
Valuation comparisonBYD trades at a lower Forward P/E and P/S ratio than Rivian, which measure future earnings estimates and sales relative to stock price.
MetricBYDRivian AutomotiveForward P/E14.4xn/aP/S ratio0.8x3.3xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?The EV market is at an interesting crossroads. Europe and emerging markets are driving increased demand for electric cars, but U.S. policy changes, such as the end of a federal tax credit under the Trump administration, have caused domestic EV sales to fall. This plays into whether to invest in BYD, which has a global presence outside the U.S., or Rivian, which is dependent on American customers.
BYD is a profitable business. Given its superior financial health and the international growth opportunity, it would seem the better stock to buy. However, in the first half of 2026, the company's revenue fell 7% year over year as fierce competition in the Chinese market forced BYD to slash prices. The company is also a risky bet because the Chinese government can punish the automaker without warning for violations of policies it may not even know exists. The global geopolitical environment injects uncertainty as well.
Rivian is experiencing sales growth. In the second quarter, revenue rose an excellent 27% year over year to $1.7 billion. Its new, cheaper R2 vehicle is poised to grow sales further at half the price of its other models. The automaker is still unprofitable, but its Q2 net loss of $837 million was an improvement over 2025's loss of $1.1 billion.
Because BYD operates under the unpredictable Chinese government, which has absolute power over its fate, and Rivian is increasing sales despite a dour domestic EV environment, I would invest in Rivian.
Tesla is surging ahead of its Cybercab event in Austin while rivals Lucid and Rivian trail behind, but whether the autonomous vehicle showcase delivers the commercial proof traders are pricing in could determine if this rally has legs or sets…
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock is advancing 6% to $378.75 in Thursday trading as traders position themselves ahead of the company’s closely watched Cybercab event in Austin. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is rising 3% to $4.84, while Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is ticking up 1% to $15.78, giving the electric-vehicle group a broadly positive session.
Tesla’s Cybercab launch carries unusual importance because the autonomous two-seat vehicle sits at the center of the company’s plans to build a robotaxi business. Tesla has already been operating a limited robotaxi service, but investors are looking for evidence that the Cybercab can help Tesla move from small-scale testing toward a commercially meaningful autonomous fleet.
Cybercab Expectations Are Driving The Rally Tesla has given traders plenty to anticipate with an event designed to showcase the Cybercab, a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals. Tesla’s event comes after months of development and testing, while the company has increasingly presented autonomous driving as a potential growth engine alongside its established electric-vehicle business.
Tesla stock has already enjoyed a strong run into the event, which means the market could be pricing in a meaningful demonstration rather than simply a product unveiling. Tesla stock could benefit if management provides convincing details about production, deployment and expansion, while a presentation focused mainly on demonstrations could leave some of those expectations unmet.
Lucid And Rivian Offer A Different EV Story Lucid stock is rising 3% to $4.84, giving LCID stock a smaller gain than Tesla stock despite Lucid’s focus on premium electric vehicles. Lucid faces a different challenge because its investment case remains tied more closely to vehicle deliveries, product launches and improving its financial position than to an autonomous-vehicle opportunity of Tesla’s scale.
Rivian stock is ticking up 1% to $15.78, also trailing Tesla stock’s advance. Rivian has been working to expand its vehicle lineup and improve its cost structure, while the company doesn’t carry the same degree of investor expectations surrounding robotaxis that Tesla does.
DRIV Shows Broader EV Sentiment The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is up 0.3% to $34.20 Thursday, suggesting the broader autonomous-driving and electric-vehicle theme is participating in the advance. The DRIV ETF provides a useful benchmark because its diversified exposure makes its relatively modest gain a contrast with Tesla stock’s much larger move.
Tesla’s stronger performance therefore appears to be driven primarily by the Cybercab catalyst rather than a broad surge across the entire EV and autonomy complex. Investors can watch for whether Rivian stock and Lucid stock continue to strengthen alongside Tesla stock, or whether the gap widens as the event draws more attention.
Tesla Faces A High Bar After The Run-Up The bullish case for Tesla rests on the possibility that Cybercab becomes the foundation for a much larger autonomous ride-hailing network. Tesla could eventually generate a new stream of recurring revenue from robotaxi services if the company can scale its autonomous fleet, lower operating costs and secure the regulatory approvals needed for broader deployment.
The bearish case centers on execution and expectations. Tesla’s current autonomous operation remains small compared with established competitors, while regulations in some markets still limit the deployment of vehicles without steering wheels and pedals.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made autonomous driving central to Tesla’s longer-term ambitions, so the Cybercab event could influence how investors value the company beyond its traditional vehicle business. Yet, Tesla stock has already climbed sharply ahead of the event, creating the possibility that even an impressive demonstration could produce a “sell-the-news” reaction if investors were expecting more.
Tesla stock could continue gaining if the Cybercab presentation provides concrete evidence of scalable production and broader robotaxi deployment. Investors should consider keeping their TSLA position sizes moderate after the recent rally, particularly because the stock’s valuation leaves significant room for disappointment if the event doesn’t provide the commercial progress that bullish investors are anticipating.
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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced that its leadership team will participate at two upcoming investor conferences:Goldman Sachs Communacopia
IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced that its leadership team will participate at two upcoming investor conferences:
Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on Tuesday, September 8. James Philbin, SVP, Autonomy & AI, Vidya Rajagopalan, SVP, Electrical Hardware and Chip Newcom Vice President, Investor Relations, will participate in a fireside chat at 5:25pm ET. A live webcast will be available here. Morgan Stanley 14th Annual Laguna Conference on Tuesday, September 15. RJ Scaringe, Founder and CEO will participate in a fireside chat at 4:50pm ET. A live webcast will be available here. About Rivian:
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is an American automotive technology company that develops and manufactures category-defining electric vehicles as well as vertically integrated technologies and services. Through innovation across its electrical architecture, end-to-end software, autonomous driving platform, artificial intelligence, and propulsion, the company creates vehicles that excel at work and play with the goal of accelerating the global transition to zero-emission transportation and energy. Rivian vehicles are manufactured in the United States and are sold directly to consumer and commercial customers. Whether taking families on new adventures or electrifying fleets at scale, Rivian vehicles all share a common goal — preserving the natural world for generations to come.
Learn more about the company, products, and careers at www.rivian.com.
Rivian (RIVN +0.48%) hasn't minted any new millionaires since its IPO in Nov. 2021. The EV maker went public at $78 per share, but it now trades at about $15. Its stock plummeted as it struggled to ramp up its production and racked up steep losses.
From 2023 to 2025, Rivian's total vehicle deliveries dropped from 50,122 to 42,247 as it struggled with supply chain bottlenecks, macro headwinds, and fierce competition. But could its newest vehicle -- the R2 SUV -- finally end that slowdown and drive its stock to deliver millionaire-making gains over the next few years?
Image source: Rivian.
Why 2026 could be a turning point for Rivian The R2 is significantly cheaper than Rivian's R1T pickup and R1S SUV. It expects its lower price tag to expand its total addressable market while boosting its per-vehicle gross margins, since the R2 costs less to manufacture than its higher-end predecessors.
Rivian expects its deliveries to soar to 65,000-67,000 vehicles this year, with the R2 accounting for about 20,000-25,000 of that total. If it achieves that goal, analysts expect its revenue to surge 38% to $7.5 billion this year and 60% to $11.9 billion in 2027.
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With a market cap of $22.5 billion, Rivian trades at less than two times next year's sales -- so any good news could cause its stock to double or triple. Over the long term, it could deliver millionaire-making gains as it ramps up its production of the R2 and launches new vehicles.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Three blue-chip CFO swaps touched off double-digit stock rallies while Rivian's announcement landed with a thud. The difference comes down to one decision Rivian has yet to make.
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Rivian’s finance chief is on her way out. Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) said on August 27, 2026, that CFO Claire McDonough will step down October 30, 2026, after almost six years, relocating to the East Coast for her new role. Derek Mulvey, a VP of Finance who joined Rivian in 2021 from J.P. Morgan, is expected to serve as interim CFO. The market reaction has been muted: shares are down 1.7% since the session before the announcement, closing at $16.06 on August 31.
Why the Timing Matters More Than the Exit McDonough is leaving for a bigger job. GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) named her its incoming CFO on August 27, 2026, which reads as a talent draw. She led Rivian’s $13.7 billion November 2021 IPO and built the capital stack now funding the R2 launch. That stack is substantial: roughly $5.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, a $4.5 billion Department of Energy loan for the Georgia plant, and over $14 billion in total available liquidity and targeted future capital. Q2 revenue reached $1.66 billion, up 27% year over year, with 2026 delivery guidance lifted to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles. Losing a finance chief one quarter before the R2 production line ramps to two shifts is the key risk investors should scrutinize.
How Investors Reacted to Other CFO Transitions AT&T (NYSE:T) said on June 16, 2026, that Jennifer Biry will become CFO in 2027, with Pascal Desroches retiring. Biry was named deputy CFO in the interim. Shares are up 12.6% since the session before the announcement.
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) announced on April 8, 2026, that Kyle Epley, a nearly 30-year company veteran, was elected CFO, with Andrew Bonfield retiring after eight years. Shares are up 10.5% since the session before the announcement.
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) announced its transition on June 18, 2026. Dave Denton left in August 2026 and was subsequently named Nike’s next CFO. Albert Bourla said, “With Cecile’s leadership, I’m confident we are in very good hands.” Shares are up 11.72% since the session before the announcement.
What Separates Rivian From the Rest AT&T, Caterpillar, and Pfizer each identified a permanent successor the day they disclosed the change. Rivian named an interim and has an executive search underway considering both internal and external candidates. That open search is the variable. With R2 already in customers’ hands and a Q4 second-shift production ramp defining Rivian’s year-end output, the permanent CFO hire is the announcement worth waiting for. The balance sheet buys time; the CFO search sets the tone.
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Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) are trading lower on Tuesday. The stock is consolidating as investors evaluate production scaling targets, gross-margin inflection timelines and broader competitive dynamics across the premium EV landscape heading into the fourth quarter.
Rivian Automotive stock is trending lower. Why is RIVN stock retreating? CFO Transition Announced Ahead Of Critical R2 Scaling Phase Among key late-August corporate developments, Rivian announced that Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough will step down effective October 30, to take on the CFO role at energy giant GE Vernova.
Senior Vice President of Finance Derek Mulvey is expected to serve as interim CFO while executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles manages the global search for a permanent successor.
Volkswagen Joint Venture Expansion and Technology ScalingA primary fundamental driver for Rivian remains the continued operational rollout of its joint venture with Volkswagen Group. The partnership provides Rivian with crucial capital injections while licensing its proprietary zonal electrical architecture and software stack to the German auto giant.
The collaboration could serve as a vital balance-sheet buffer that lowers execution risk for Rivian’s upcoming mass-market vehicles while validating its full-stack software technology.
Q2 Financial Performance and Annual Production GuidanceRivian’s second-quarter financial results delivered in early August saw Automotive revenue reach $1.15 billion, representing a 23% year-over-year growth trajectory driven by steady R1T pickup and R1S SUV deliveries, while adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed as material cost reductions took hold across the Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility.
Furthermore, management reiterated its full-year delivery guidance target of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, emphasizing that total production volume will skew heavily toward the second half of the year.
Mid-Size R2 Platform Preparation and Cost DisciplineBeyond immediate delivery targets, investor focus centers on tooling and pre-production progress for the mid-size R2 SUV platform, slated for release in spring 2027. With the sub-$45,000 vehicle slated to expand Rivian’s total addressable market significantly, Wall Street continues to monitor capital expenditure discipline, battery supply chain optimizations and factory retooling efficiency as the company targets sustained positive gross margins.
RIVN Shares Fall Tuesday MorningRIVN Price Action: Rivian Automotive shares were down 3.55% at $15.49 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Sales of EVs are increasing as oil prices increase.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Aug. 27, 2026. The video was published on Aug.29, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
GE Vernova is shedding 3% Monday morning while Vertiv and Eaton barely flinch, and the reason behind that split tells investors something important about what this selloff actually is.
GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV | GEV Price Prediction) stock is down 3% to $886.81 in Monday morning trading. The move extends a Friday slide that also caught the power infrastructure peers. Vertiv Holdings (NYSE:VRT) stock is off 0.2% to $256.35 and Eaton (NYSE:ETN) stock is slipping 0.3% to $401.48, both holding up far better today than GE Vernova.
The First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (NASDAQ:GRID) is up 0.3% to $179.80, so the broader group holds steady while GE Vernova shares drop alone. All four names fell together Friday after GE Vernova disclosed a CFO succession plan on Thursday, August 27. Today’s action separates the story.
Through Friday’s close, GE Vernova stock was up 40% year to date (YTD), Vertiv Holdings stock was up 59% YTD, and Eaton stock was up 28% YTD. That prior run leaves ample profit to trim in a single name, and it helps explain why one weekend of digestion can still produce a 3% morning drop.
CFO Handoff Sets the Stage On Thursday, GE Vernova announced that Claire McDonough, currently CFO of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), will join as strategic advisor to CEO Scott Strazik effective November 1 and become CFO on January 1, 2027. She succeeds Kenneth Parks, who retires as CFO effective April 2, 2027 after holding the role since GE Vernova’s 2024 spin-off. Parks remains finance chief through GE Vernova’s remaining two 2026 earnings calls before moving to a strategic advisor role.
McDonough spent six years at Rivian, where she led its $13.7 billion initial public offering in November 2021, and six years at JPMorgan before that. Her GE Vernova package includes a $1 million base salary, a long-term incentive award with a target grant value of $5.2 million, a $5 million cash sign-on payment, and a one-time stock award valued at $14.5 million.
Rivian expects to name Derek Mulvey, its current vice president of finance, as interim CFO. McDonough’s last day at Rivian is October 30. The handoff looks orderly on paper, though CFO transitions at this scale often introduce narrative risk that outlasts the announcement day.
Power Peers Sit Out the Selloff The divergence is what matters here. Vertiv Holdings shares and Eaton shares sit close to unchanged Monday and the grid fund prints a small gain, while GE Vernova shares alone extend Friday’s losses. That pattern reads as single-name repricing after a large run.
The Q2 2026 report on July 22 was strong for GE Vernova. GE Vernova’s revenue of $11.1 billion beat the $10.77 billion consensus by 3.1% and rose 21.8% year over year (YoY), orders reached $24.2 billion, up 88% organically, and backlog hit a record $176 billion. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion, so the fundamental setup didn’t change over the weekend.
The bear case still has a soft spot. GE Vernova’s own guidance calls for Wind segment organic revenue down low double digits and approximately $400 million of Wind segment EBITDA losses for 2026. After a large prior run, that segment drag gives holders a reason to lock in gains before the next earnings report.
What to Watch Investors can watch for whether GE Vernova stock stabilizes through the session or whether today’s derating extends into a multi-day move. A recovery in Vertiv Holdings shares and Eaton shares while GE Vernova stock keeps lagging would confirm a single-name reset. The grid fund’s small green session Monday morning sends the same signal.
The available data doesn’t settle whether the Rivian CFO handoff is still driving the selling. No fresh company news explains this session, Friday’s shared decline hit Vertiv Holdings shares harder than GE Vernova shares, and today’s isolation in GE Vernova points to profit taking after a large run. Traders should size their positions to reflect that ambiguity and consider staggering any exits rather than reacting to a single morning move.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The EV industry generated only a fraction of its sales forecast in 2020 and 2021.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Aug. 23, 2026. The video was published on Aug.25, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Lucid unveiled what it calls America's most powerful three-row crossover on the same day its stock extended a brutal year-to-date slide, and investors appear to be reading the fine print of today's announcements very differently than management intended.
Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID | LCID Price Prediction) stock is down 6% to $4.93 today, a rough session for the electric vehicle maker on the same day it unveiled what the company markets as America’s most powerful three-row crossover. Meanwhile, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares are falling 5% to $15.98, with the pair carrying nearly all of the day’s damage in the electric vehicle group.
The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is down 0.8% to $34.20, well behind the two big losers and a signal that today’s move is company-specific rather than a sector selloff. Lucid stock was down 50% year to date through Tuesday’s close, so this session extends a long slide rather than beginning a new one.
Gravity GT-S Reveal Fails to Lift Lucid Shares Lucid announced the 2027 Gravity GT-S, reviving the 1,070-horsepower drivetrain from its discontinued Dream Edition. The company claims the title of America’s most powerful three-row crossover, narrowly ahead of Rivian’s R1S at 1,025 horsepower.
Pricing for Lucid’s Gravity GT-S starts at $128,000, while the limited-run Dream Edition sold for over $141,000 as a 2026 model. That reads as a halo product built to defend brand credibility rather than to move meaningful volume in a saturated luxury EV segment.
The bigger operational headline is the delay of the Cosmos crossover, which Lucid pushed to at least next year from an earlier late 2026 launch. Cosmos targets a $50,000 price tier and represents the volume vehicle for Lucid, so the schedule slip carries more weight than any halo reveal. That reflects the analytical read on today’s announcements, presented as opinion rather than fact.
A Halo Car Can’t Fix Lucid’s Cash Problem Lucid’s core challenge sits in production, cost, and cash, and a $128,000 three-row crossover doesn’t address any of those. Investors appear to be reading the GT-S reveal as a distraction and the Cosmos delay as the actual signal.
Q2 2026 numbers underscored the pressure. Lucid posted a net loss of $1 billion in the second quarter, with its revenue of $405 million and total liquidity of $3 billion that management says extends its runway well into 2027. The company has run two rounds of layoffs this year and hired consulting firm AlixPartners on a turnaround engagement, though AlixPartners has not recommended bankruptcy.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund owns 60% of the company, and rumors earlier this year that Lucid was considering bankruptcy or going private were strongly denied by management. Insider ownership sits at 15.3% and institutional ownership at 68.2%, framing a shareholder base that has already been diluted repeatedly to keep the business funded.
Rivian’s cost trajectory is the sharpest contrast in the EV group. The company has been meaningfully better at lowering costs and improving gross margins, which is precisely the capability Lucid still needs to demonstrate. Also, Rivian Automotive stock, down 15% year to date through Tuesday’s close, is a very different setup from Lucid Group stock at half its start-of-year price.
Cluster Fund Signals a Company-Specific Move The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF declining only 0.8% confirms that today isn’t a broad EV sector selloff. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is down 2% to $344.28, and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) stock is up 1% to $11.77.
That mixed session narrows today’s story to Lucid and Rivian specifically. For context on the fund’s own composition, the DRIV ETF holds Lucid at 0.5% of net assets, so the drag from LCID on the basket is modest even on an 8% down day for the stock.
What to Watch Now Lucid stock under $5, a $1 billion quarterly loss, and a 60% state-fund owner add up to a name that belongs in the smallest position bucket in a diversified portfolio, if at all (we wrote a free playbook on speculating with just 5% of a portfolio, here). The Gravity GT-S doesn’t change the runway math, and the Cosmos delay just pushed the volume story further out.
Investors can watch for whether the AlixPartners engagement produces cost actions that visibly narrow cash burn in the third quarter. Until then, sizing discipline matters more than direction here. Those comfortable holding Lucid stock should keep exposure modest and pair it with cash, while the same volatility discipline applies to Rivian stock until R2 unit economics settle.
Moreover, traders may want to check for whether Lucid stock holds above $4.90. Stabilization here without another dilutive capital raise would be the first real sign that the operational reset is landing.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The electric vehicle (EV) market has shifted from a novelty to a competitive battlefield. Deciding between Rivian Automotive (RIVN -4.34%) and Tesla (TSLA -1.71%) requires weighing early stage growth against established market dominance.
Rivian focuses on the premium outdoor lifestyle market with its rugged trucks and SUVs, while building a massive commercial business. Tesla has evolved from a niche carmaker into a diversified energy and artificial intelligence powerhouse. While both companies aim to electrify transportation, their financial health and long-term strategies offer distinct paths for investors.
The case for Rivian AutomotiveRivian designs and builds electric vehicles for both retail and commercial buyers. Its primary products include the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, alongside a growing fleet of electric delivery vans. Its new R2 vehicle began deliveries in the second quarter.
The company maintains a critical relationship with Amazon, which serves as a major customer and shareholder. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, though Rivian recently began selling vans to other commercial fleets.
In its 2025 fiscal year (FY), revenue reached $5.4 billion, representing growth of 8.4% compared to the prior year. Despite this top-line expansion, the company reported a net loss of $3.6 billion for the same period. This net margin of -67.7% highlights the ongoing challenge of reaching profitability in the automotive stocks category.
Based on its December 2025 balance sheet, Rivian maintains a current ratio of 2.3x, which measures its ability to cover short-term debts. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.5x, indicating that total debt is higher than the equity held by shareholders. During FY 2025, free cash flow was negative $2.5 billion, representing the cash remaining after spending on vital capital projects.
The case for TeslaTesla operates a global direct-to-consumer business selling electric vehicles, solar energy systems, and battery storage units. The company does not rely on a single large customer, instead selling to millions of individual buyers and various institutional partners. Its current strategy involves leveraging massive scale to lower production costs while investing heavily in proprietary autonomous driving technology. This global footprint includes manufacturing and service operations across North America, Europe, and Asia.
In FY 2025, revenue reached $94.8 billion, which was a decrease of 2.9% year over year. The company recorded net income of $3.8 billion during this period, resulting in a net margin of 4%. This figure is significantly lower than in previous years as the company faced pricing pressures and heavy research spending. However, Tesla remains one of the few pure-play electric vehicle manufacturers consistently reporting positive net income.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, Tesla carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1x. This low ratio suggests the company uses minimal debt relative to the value owned by its shareholders. The current ratio stands at 2.2x, while free cash flow for FY 2025 was $6.2 billion. Free cash flow is the cash a company has left over after paying for its physical assets.
Risk profile comparisonRivian faces substantial operational risks as it attempts to scale manufacturing at its Georgia and Illinois facilities. Future growth depends on the successful ramp of the R2 model while managing a complex global supply chain. The company also relies heavily on Amazon for commercial revenue and competes with established players like Ford.
Tesla deals with production challenges for its new offerings, including the self-driving Cybercab and its Optimus robots. The company is highly dependent on the leadership of Elon Musk, whose attention is divided across multiple large enterprises. Tesla also faces intense competition from BYD and regulatory scrutiny regarding its automated driving software.
Valuation comparisonRivian stock appears cheaper than Tesla when comparing total sales relative to its market capitalization.
MetricRivian AutomotiveTeslaForward P/En/a215.4xP/S ratio3.8x11.1xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?For investors looking for exposure to the electric vehicle market, Tesla is usually the safe bet. It's proven it can deliver EVs at scale, and do so profitably, an achievement that has eluded Rivian so far. Tesla is also moving beyond consumer EVs to expand into autonomous vehicles as a new line of business.
However, for those who are not risk averse, Rivian stock could deliver big gains. The company went public in 2021 at $78 per share. Fast-forward to 2026 and its stock has struggled to reach $20 as it bleeds cash in the capital-intensive automotive industry.
That said, Rivian's new affordably priced R2 vehicle could signal a turning point. Management believes the R2 will be a key driver for the company's long-term growth and profitability. The automaker posted second-quarter sales of $1.7 billion, a strong 27% year-over-year increase. Its Q2 gross profit was $179 million compared to a loss of $206 million in the prior year.
Consequently, Rivian’s Q2 net loss attributable to common stockholders was $837 million compared to $1.1 billion in the prior year. These are positive signs that the company can eventually reach profitability.
Moreover, Rivian's share price valuation is far lower than Tesla's, understandably so given the risks with its business. But if you are willing to take a gamble, Rivian looks like an investment with plenty of upside potential.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN – Get Free Report) has been given a consensus rating of “Hold” by the twenty-seven ratings firms that are currently covering the company, MarketBeat reports. Seven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have assigned a hold rating and twelve have given a buy rating to the company. The average 12 month price target among analysts that have covered the stock in the last year is $19.0455.
Several equities research analysts recently commented on the stock. Wells Fargo & Company boosted their price objective on shares of Rivian Automotive from $15.00 to $16.00 and gave the company an “equal weight” rating in a research report on Friday, July 31st. DA Davidson increased their target price on Rivian Automotive from $14.00 to $15.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a report on Monday, May 11th. Cantor Fitzgerald reissued a “neutral” rating and issued a $19.00 price target on shares of Rivian Automotive in a research note on Tuesday, July 28th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Rivian Automotive from a “sell (e+)” rating to a “sell (d-)” rating in a report on Monday, July 6th. Finally, TD Cowen upped their price objective on Rivian Automotive from $20.00 to $21.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, July 31st.
Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on RIVN
Rivian Automotive Stock Performance Shares of RIVN stock opened at $16.33 on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, a quick ratio of 1.65 and a current ratio of 2.10. Rivian Automotive has a 52 week low of $12.39 and a 52 week high of $22.69. The company’s 50 day moving average price is $16.50 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $15.87. The company has a market capitalization of $23.64 billion, a P/E ratio of -6.33 and a beta of 1.61. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, July 30th. The electric vehicle automaker reported ($0.47) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.66) by $0.19. Rivian Automotive had a negative net margin of 54.96% and a negative return on equity of 73.90%. The company had revenue of $1.66 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $1.52 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned ($0.97) earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 27.2% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts expect that Rivian Automotive will post -2.98 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Insider Buying and Selling In other Rivian Automotive news, CFO Claire Mcdonough sold 8,023 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, August 20th. The stock was sold at an average price of $16.00, for a total value of $128,368.00. Following the sale, the chief financial officer owned 819,178 shares in the company, valued at approximately $13,106,848. The trade was a 0.97% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Karen Boone sold 20,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, July 6th. The shares were sold at an average price of $20.00, for a total value of $400,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 110,000 shares in the company, valued at $2,200,000. The trade was a 15.38% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last three months, insiders sold 49,190 shares of company stock worth $847,324. 1.48% of the stock is owned by insiders.
Institutional Trading of Rivian Automotive Institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Newbridge Financial Services Group Inc. grew its position in Rivian Automotive by 113.6% in the second quarter. Newbridge Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 1,880 shares of the electric vehicle automaker’s stock valued at $26,000 after purchasing an additional 1,000 shares in the last quarter. Core Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new stake in Rivian Automotive during the 4th quarter worth about $27,000. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. acquired a new position in shares of Rivian Automotive during the 3rd quarter worth about $31,000. Zions Bancorporation National Association UT acquired a new position in shares of Rivian Automotive during the 4th quarter worth about $33,000. Finally, Oslo Pensjonsforsikring AS bought a new position in shares of Rivian Automotive in the 1st quarter valued at about $39,000. Institutional investors own 66.25% of the company’s stock.
Rivian Automotive Company Profile (Get Free Report)
Rivian Automotive, Inc is an American automotive technology company specializing in the design, development and manufacture of electric vehicles. The company is best known for its all-electric R1 platform, which underpins the R1T pickup truck and R1S sport utility vehicle. In addition to consumer products, Rivian has secured a significant commercial contract to produce electric delivery vans for a leading e-commerce provider, underscoring its capability to serve both retail and fleet customers.
Founded in 2009 by engineer and entrepreneur Robert “RJ” Scaringe, Rivian has grown from a research-focused startup into a publicly traded corporation.
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Lucid is surging hard off multi-year lows while Rivian barely twitches on the same tape, and the gap between those two moves tells you exactly what is really driving this afternoon's action in electric vehicle stocks.
Electric vehicle names are catching a small bid at midday Thursday, but the move is confined to the most beaten-down corners of the group, with the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) up 1% to $34.77. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.75% to $771.85. The autonomous and electric vehicles fund’s modest gain is the key tell: the sector isn’t broadly rallying, so any individual EV name moving hard today is moving on its own.
Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID | LCID Price Prediction) stock is up 7% to $5.30, extending a small bounce off multi-year lows. That gain follows a year-to-date decline of 53% through Wednesday’s close. Traders should also observe that Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is up 2% to $16.72, and it entered Thursday down 17% year to date through Wednesday’s close.
That gap between the two bounces frames the question in the headline. Lucid stock was down 16% over the past week and down 24% over the past month through Wednesday’s close. Rivian stock was up 4% over the past week through the same session, a very different tone heading into Thursday.
Price Mechanics Help Explain the Move No verified company announcement, product news, contract, regulatory action, analyst rating change or financing event has hit Lucid today. The most recent official Lucid release listed by the company’s newswire feed is dated August 20, when Lucid announced its first retail partner in the Netherlands. That release is more than a week old, so it isn’t a same-day driver, and neither is the operational reset the new leadership team laid out earlier in the month.
What’s left is mechanics: Lucid shares trade in single digits with a beta of 0.86, in a name that has fallen 77% over the past year and 98% over five years through Wednesday’s close. Heavy short-term declines in low-priced stocks routinely produce sharp counter-trend bounces, especially on a broadly risk-on tape led by the S&P 500 benchmark. That’s the plain description of today’s action, and it’s happening without any change in the underlying fundamentals.
Bounce Size Tracks Prior Decline Rivian is up far less on the same tape despite sitting in the same cluster, and the reason is the setup. Rivian stock was up 24% over the past year through Wednesday’s close, while Lucid stock was down 77% over the same span. The size of the pain is dictating the size of today’s rebound, and that’s the clearest evidence available that today’s action is positioning rather than news.
Broader peers aren’t confirming a sector rebound. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Nio (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) round out the cluster investors are watching, and the muted 1% move in the electric vehicle fund shows the group isn’t ripping higher together. Positioning is doing the work here.
What to Watch Prudent traders should know that one session of gains after a decline of this size doesn’t mean EV-sector shareholders are out of the woods. A 5% pop in a stock that entered Thursday down more than half its 2026 value is just a bounce, and the evidence for exhaustion isn’t there yet. Lucid stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $6.25 and its 200-day at $8.86, so the trend structure above current prices remains firmly negative.
Investors weighing their exposure to Lucid can size their positions for continued volatility and persistent negative free cash flow rather than for an imminent reversal (we wrote a full playbook on treating names like this as a small, rule-bound slice of a portfolio, here). Traders may want to keep an eye on whether today’s gains hold through the session and whether volume expands on any push toward that 50-day line. A clean rejection there would be consistent with the prevailing downtrend.
The next hard company catalysts for the pair sit outside today’s session. Rivian is on the cusp of external customer deliveries of its R2 vehicle, and Lucid is early in executing against its $1.4 billion cash flow improvement plan under new leadership. Until one of those turns into a delivered result, moves like today’s look more like positioning around a beaten-down group than resolution of the selloff.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced that Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough has decided to step down from her role to pursue a new opportunity and relocate to the East Coast to be closer to her family.McDonough will remain in her role as CFO over the next two months to ensure a seamless and thorough transition. During this period, she will work closely with CEO RJ Scaringe and the executive leadership team to transition key strategic init.
Rivian (RIVN.O) CFO Claire McDonough has decided to leave the company to join GE Vernova (GEV.N) in the same role, just as the electric vehicle maker ramps up rollout of its more affordable SUVs amid fragile EV demand in the U.S.
McDonough will join GE Vernova later this year and take on the CFO role at the beginning of 2027, succeeding the retiring Ken Parks, the company said.
Parks joined the power equipment maker ahead of its 2024 spin-off from General Electric (GE.N) and helped build its financial infrastructure as a standalone public firm.
McDonough, a former banker with JPMorgan and Credit Suisse, joined Irvine, California-based Rivian early in 2021 and took the company through its initial public offering.
She played a key role in the launch of Rivian's flagship R1T pickups and R1S SUVs, while leading cost-cutting and fundraising efforts as the company races to build a new plant, develop self-driving technology and aims to turn profitable.
Her exit comes at a crucial time for Rivian. The company started delivering its lower-priced R2 SUVs in June and raised its annual delivery forecast last month, buoyed by optimism over the vehicles that are seen as critical to the company's success.
Shares of Rivian were down more than 1% in extended trading.
McDonough will help with the transition and step down at the end of October, Rivian said, adding that the search for her replacement was underway. The company's vice president of finance, Derek Mulvey, is expected to take over in the interim.
At GE Vernova, she will be tasked with boosting profitability at a time when rapid AI data center expansion is driving strong demand for gas turbines and grid equipment. The company, however, is seeing widening losses in its wind energy business amid weak onshore demand and higher project costs.
Rivian’s chief financial officer Claire McDonough is resigning her position at the end of October, the company announced in a regulatory filing Thursday.
The company said McDonough is stepping down to “pursue a new opportunity and relocate to the East Coast to be closer to her family.” McDonough has been hired as CFO at Massachusetts-based GE Vernova, according to the energy equipment manufacturer and her own post on LinkedIn.
Rivian said her resignation is “not the result of any disagreement.” The company is already searching for a replacement, and vice president of finance Derek Mulvey will serve as interim CFO once McDonough leaves her post.
Her departure comes as Rivian takes on some of its biggest projects to date, including scaling up production and sales of its R2 SUV, which started shipping to customers this summer.
McDonough was hired to the CFO spot in January 2021, replacing Ryan Green, at a critical and tumultuous time for Rivian. The EV maker, which was still a private company, had raised billions of dollars in its bid to bring three compelling electric vehicles — its flagship R1T truck and R1S SUV and a commercial delivery van — to market.
Rivian was plagued with delays and added costs, which was compounded by supply chain constraints. It was also burning through capital.
In her first year at Rivian, the company started production of its R1T truck and raised $12 billion in one of the biggest IPOs of the year. The company’s stock, which debuted at $78, has since fallen to $16.80, as of Thursday’s closing.
McDonough was a key figure in the company’s quest to improve its balance sheet, and specifically its cost of revenue. While she didn’t have any direct experience working in automotive — she held previous positions at JP Morgan and Fairway Market — McDonough was known for working closely with the design and engineering teams as well as founder and CEO RJ Scaringe to ensure future vehicles were modern and compelling without losing money on every sale, according to insiders who have spoken to TechCrunch in the past. Among her many responsibilities, McDonough led Rivian’s corporate and business development as well as a variety of other aspects of the business, including vehicle maintenance and repairs, facilities, and its charging network.
As CFO, she played a vital role in a technology joint venture with Volkswagen Group. Under that deal, which was finalized in November 2024, VW agreed to invest up to $5.8 billion into Rivian by 2027 in exchange for access to its electrical architecture and software know-how.
“Together, we launched the R1T, R1S, and our commercial van, drove technology innovation and partnerships, built our go-to-market operations, and positioned the company for global scale and profitability with the launch of R2,” McDonough wrote in a post on LinkedIn. “Being part of taking Rivian from an ambitious vision to a category-defining enterprise has been the highlight of my career.”
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.
Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
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Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares are trading lower Friday morning as investors digest an executive leadership transition.
Rivian Automotive stock is among today’s weakest performers. Why is RIVN stock falling? CFO Claire McDonough to Step Down In October After Six YearsFriday morning’s sell-off follows an official announcement that Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough will step down from her role on Oct. 30, to pursue a new opportunity and relocate to the East Coast to be closer to her family.
McDonough joined Rivian in January 2021 and played a central role in guiding the company through its $13.7 billion initial public offering, structuring capital management frameworks, and driving cost-reduction initiatives.
She will remain in her position over the next two months to ensure a smooth transition alongside CEO RJ Scaringe during the ongoing ramp of Rivian’s R2 platform.
Interim Leadership Named As Executive Search Commences To maintain operational continuity, Rivian announced that Derek Mulvey, Vice President of Finance, is expected to assume the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer upon McDonough’s departure.
Mulvey joined the EV maker in 2021 from J.P. Morgan and has worked directly with Scaringe and McDonough across financial planning, capital allocation, and strategic partnerships.
The company confirmed that a formal executive search process is currently underway, evaluating both internal and external candidates for a permanent successor.
RIVN Shares Slide Friday MorningRIVN Price Action: Rivian Automotive shares were down 6.13% at $15.77 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Claire McDonough, chief financial officer (CFO) of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN +0.62%), sold 8,023 shares of Class A Common Stock on Aug. 20, 2026, according to an SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueShares sold8,023Transaction value$128,368Post-transaction shares (directly held)~819,000Post-transaction value$13.12 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($16.00); post-transaction value based on Aug. 20, 2026 market close ($16.01).
Key questionsWhat was the mechanism for this transaction?
The sale was conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, which allows insiders to set up a prearranged schedule for selling stock to avoid concerns about trading on material non-public information. McDonough adopted this specific plan on Sept. 2, 2025, and previously disclosed in the company's regulatory filings.What is the executive's remaining ownership stake?
Following the sale, McDonough retains direct ownership of ~819,000 shares of Class A Common Stock. This position represents approximately 0.0675% of the company's outstanding shares as of the Aug. 20, 2026 market close.What are the fundamental characteristics of the company?
The firm, headquartered in Irvine, specializes in electric vehicle manufacturing, including pickup trucks, sport-utility vehicles, and a commercial delivery van platform developed in partnership with Amazon (AMZN +1.44%). For the trailing 12 months, the company reported revenue of $5.9 billion and a net loss of $3.2 billion.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-20)$16.01Market Capitalization$19.4 billionRevenue (TTM)$5.9 billionNet Income (TTM)-$3.2 billionCompany SnapshotRivian Automotive designs, engineers, and manufactures premium electric vehicles, including five-passenger electric pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles for consumer markets, as well as commercial electric delivery van platforms developed in partnership with Amazon.The company operates a direct-to-consumer sales model, distributing its electric vehicle products to both individual consumers and commercial customers without relying on traditional dealer networks.Rivian's primary customer base comprises affluent consumers seeking premium electric vehicles and commercial enterprises, particularly Amazon, which represents a significant anchor customer for the company's commercial delivery platform.Rivian's differentiated strategy emphasizes premium consumer electric trucks and SUVs alongside commercial delivery solutions, leveraging its direct distribution model and strategic partnership with Amazon to establish competitive positioning in the rapidly evolving EV market. Despite current net losses reflecting the capital-intensive nature of automotive manufacturing and ongoing production ramp, Rivian's established production capacity and diversified product portfolio across consumer and commercial segments provide a foundation for potential margin expansion as manufacturing scale increases.
What this transaction means for investorsDespite involving the company CFO, this transaction should not be a concern for Rivian investors. Most company executives receive some level of stock compensation, and there are many personal reasons to cash out some of those shares. McDonough is still heavily invested in Rivian, and her prearranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan doesn't imply anything about the company's future.
What Rivian investors really need to focus on is the strength of demand for its new R2 SUV and the progress on the company's autonomous driving technology. Rivian is already advertising hands-free driving and offering its Autonomy+ system for purchase or subscription on existing vehicles.
Investors will monitor the progress toward full autonomy as the company simultaneously ramps up production and deliveries of its R2. Owning shares now is a bet that both will become big drivers of Rivian's revenue in the coming years.
Rivian stock will trade on that progress. At about three times the estimated revenue, the stock is not overpriced, assuming success in those two crucial areas. That still means a lot of risk remains, and only speculative money should be invested in Rivian stock.
Howard Smith has positions in Amazon and Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
After reaching an important support level, Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) could be a good stock pick from a technical perspective. RIVN surpassed resistance at the 50-day moving average, suggesting a short-term bullish trend.
The 50-day simple moving average is one of three major moving averages used by traders and analysts to determine support or resistance levels for a wide range of securities. But the 50-day is considered to be more important because it's the first marker of an up or down trend.
Shares of RIVN have been moving higher over the past four weeks, up 7.1%. Plus, the company is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, suggesting that RIVN could be poised for a continued surge.
The bullish case only gets stronger once investors take into account RIVN's positive earnings estimate revisions. There have been 5 higher compared to none lower for the current fiscal year, and the consensus estimate has moved up as well.
With a winning combination of earnings estimate revisions and hitting a key technical level, investors should keep their eye on RIVN for more gains in the near future.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) reached a significant support level, and could be a good pick for investors from a technical perspective. Recently, RIVN broke through the 200-day moving average, which suggests a long-term bullish trend.
The 200-day simple moving average is a useful tool for traders and analysts, establishing market trends for stocks, commodities, indexes, and other financial instruments over the long term. The marker moves higher or lower along with longer-term price moves, and serves as a support or resistance level.
RIVN has rallied 7.1% over the past four weeks, and the company is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at the moment. This combination suggests RIVN could be on the verge of another move higher.
The bullish case only gets stronger once investors take into account RIVN's positive earnings estimate revisions. There have been 5 higher compared to none lower for the current fiscal year, and the consensus estimate has moved up as well.
Investors should think about putting RIVN on their watchlist given the ultra-important technical indicator and positive move in earnings estimate revisions.
Shares in electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc. NASDAQ: RIVN have spent much of the past year going sideways, bouncing around within a well-worn range as the market waits for the company to prove itself. For context, this is the same Rivian that shed more than 95% of its value after its post-IPO high in 2021.
Rivian Automotive Today
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The company did report a solid set of results at the end of July, and management has also raised its delivery guidance, but these have done little to break the pattern.
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There have been some signs of life in recent sessions, though. Rivian shares shot up about 10% over the 5 days ending Aug. 21, and it's worth asking whether the market is finally starting to appreciate the improving story beneath the surface.
The increased guidance remains at the heart of the bull case, a statement of confidence in customer demand. The question now is whether that signal, perhaps initially overlooked, is what finally lifts the shares out of their long sideways drift, or if the bears' argument carries too much weight.
A Stock Quietly Trending HigherTo start with, it's worth stepping back, because the past year of flattish trading masks a more encouraging long-term trend. Zoom out, and Rivian's shares have been quietly grinding higher for more than two years, carving out a long series of higher lows. While they haven't broken out to the upside, this isn’t so much a pattern of a business falling apart, as much as one that’s slowly winning the market’s confidence.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Price Chart for Monday, August, 24, 2026
The recent results only strengthen that case. Rivian beat analyst expectations on the headline numbers and grew revenue by more than 27% year over year, all while raising guidance. For a company still deep in its expensive growth phase, that combination of accelerating sales and rising confidence suggests the market may have been overly skeptical.
Pivotal Upcoming LaunchTo understand why the guidance matters so much, consider where Rivian is. The company is launching its crucial new R2 model, a more affordable vehicle intended to take it from a niche premium player to something approaching the mainstream. Everything hinges on that launch going well, which makes the raised guidance a powerful signal: it suggests early demand for the R2 is running ahead of expectations, with reservations turning into firm orders at a notably strong rate.
That feeds directly into the deeper bull case: the belief that Rivian is finally on a credible path toward profitability. Management continues to signal that its newest vehicles should start generating a positive gross profit by the end of the year. As cheaper versions of the R2 roll out, the hope is that next year brings meaningful improvement to both revenue and the bottom line.
Current Price$16.97High Forecast$25.00Average Forecast$18.95Low Forecast$10.00Rivian Automotive Stock Forecast Details
That improving picture is not enough to convince everyone, and it has produced a sharp divide among the analysts covering the stock.
Earlier this month, Needham upgraded Rivian and set a fresh $23 price target, implying more than 40% upside from current levels.
Yet not everyone is persuaded. August has also seen Deutsche Bank move in the opposite direction, downgrading the stock on concerns that the challenges ahead are being underestimated.
That split helps explain why the broader MarketBeat consensus rating on Rivian currently sits at a cautious Hold, reflecting a market still unsure which way this story breaks.
The Risks That Could Derail the StoryThe bears, for their part, have some legitimate points to press. The most immediate concern is a looming squeeze on profitability, and the complexity of launching a new vehicle is likely to weigh on margins in the near-term.
There are external pressures too. Rivian has flagged rising costs for key components and raw materials. At the same time, the recent expiration of a generous tax credit for electric vehicle buyers threatens to make its cars less affordable just as it tries to win a broader audience.
Underpinning all of this is the age-old challenge facing any young carmaker: the sheer amount of cash it has to burn to build out its factories and scale production. Until Rivian can consistently fund itself, the execution risk remains ever-present, which likely goes a long way to explaining the stock's persistent sideways streak.
Momentum Meets RealitySo how should investors weigh it all up? Backed by a two-year trend of higher lows on the chart, a 27% jump in year-over-year revenue, and improving delivery guidance, the bull case is compelling, and the market may have been overly negative. For believers, this sideways action could look like a chance to buy into an improving story before the stock takes off.
Yet that promise is balanced against real risks, from near-term margin pressure to the relentless cash burn that has long defined the upstart, which is why skeptics will want to see those profitability targets met first. Whether the story rewards investors will depend, as ever, on execution. However, for the first time in a while, the momentum appears to be moving in the right direction.
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Should You Invest $1,000 in Rivian Automotive Right Now?Before you consider Rivian Automotive, you'll want to hear this.
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Bill Ackman, the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, has an impeccable record, as his firm has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past couple of decades. That's why every move he and his team make is carefully scrutinized. And during the second quarter, Pershing Square Capital Management made several noteworthy stock purchases.
For instance, it bought shares of Netflix (NFLX -0.69%) and doubled down on Uber Technologies (UBER +0.32%). What's noteworthy about these purchases is that both stocks have lost significant value over the past year: Netflix is down 33%, while Uber has declined 18%. Should investors follow Ackman's lead and load up on these stocks on the dip?
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Netflix Netflix has faced slower revenue growth, unimpressive guidance, and a failed blockbuster acquisition. Further, the company reported that it will release its "What We Watched" engagement report once a year starting in 2027, rather than twice annually. This change comes at a time when Netflix is facing increased scrutiny over whether it can continue to monetize its audience enough to maintain healthy top-line growth, so many investors aren't exactly thrilled about it. Is there any reason to remain bullish on the company's prospects?
Yes, there is. Let's remember that several years ago, the streaming specialist faced significant challenges, notably growing competition and password-sharing. But Netflix adapted, launched new initiatives (such as a low-priced ad-supported tier), and overcame these obstacles.
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The past is no guarantee of the future, but what this episode taught us is that Netflix can adapt to a changing environment. The company still boasts one of the deepest ecosystems in streaming, which provides it with ample data to study viewers' habits and make adjustments as needed. Netflix is currently pursuing various opportunities to boost engagement on its platform. For instance, the company is looking to double down on sports streaming, a vast and highly lucrative market it has only begun to tap.
The company is also reportedly considering launching live TV, an initiative that has proven successful for other streaming leaders, most of whom don't have Netflix's large ecosystem and brand name. Meanwhile, the company continues to ramp up advertising and still expects ad revenue to reach $3 billion this year, double what it was in 2025. Between Netflix's vast remaining opportunities in streaming and in its ad business, the stock could still deliver solid returns over the long run as it navigates recent headwinds. The stock looks like a great buy on the dip.
2. Uber Technologies Uber Technologies' financial results haven't met market standards recently. The company's shares fell after it second quarter update, due to weak revenue growth and poor guidance. What's more, the company is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), something some believe will not pay off as much as it expects. And that's before we mention the rise of autonomous vehicles and robotaxis, which many investors believe will make Uber obsolete or, at the very least, significantly harm its business.
But aside from recent poor results, Uber's investments are actually a great sign for the business. Take the company's AI-related efforts. Earlier this year, Uber announced it would decrease its customer service workforce by 10% amid its AI expansions. In other words, the company believes it can achieve the same output with fewer workers, thereby cutting costs and boosting profits and margins.
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We likely won't see the full effects of these efforts immediately, but they could have a meaningful impact on the business down the road. Uber is also pouring money into making sure it can dominate the robotaxi industry. For instance, the company inked a deal with Rivian (RIVN +6.00%), an electric vehicle (EV) maker. Rivian will provide up to 50,000 autonomous EVs to Uber in exchange for an investment of up to $1.25 billion. Uber plans to start launching these EVs in cities across the U.S. starting in 2028.
And given that it already has a ride-hailing platform everyone recognizes, it could be massively successful. Autonomous vehicles could be an opportunity rather than a death sentence for Uber, as relying less on human drivers will improve the economics of its business model. What does all this mean for Uber's future? Despite recent setbacks, the company still has attractive prospects, and its shares are worth buying on the dip.
shares rose nearly 7% on Friday as options trading pointed to increased investor interest ahead of the electric-vehicle maker's next earnings report.
Recent market activity has included heavier demand for call contracts.
The options positioning comes as Rivian works to improve its financial profile. The company reported $1.66 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 27% from a year earlier, while adjusted gross profit reached $179 million.
Still, profitability remains a key issue for investors. Rivian continues to use cash to fund operations and vehicle development, leaving execution and financing needs as important factors for the stock.
Rivian's shares remain about 25% lower year to date, according to recent market data, despite recent periods of strength.
For RIVN stock, the options activity could support near-term sentiment, but sustained gains may depend on improving margins, cash generation and execution.
Rivian offers a compelling diversification opportunity away from AI infrastructure amid market highs. RIVN is gaining momentum with its second-generation R2 vehicle, targeting a ~$45k price and late 2027 release. Recent increases in delivery expectations and rising gross profits signal strengthening demand and production capacity.
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With the S&P 500 up moderately and the NASDAQ 100 basically flat today, shares of pure-play electric vehicle names are leading the auto complex higher Wednesday. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock is up 3% to $346.71, and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is climbing 4% to $15.31.
The legacy automotive incumbents are also rising, but only modestly. Ford (NYSE:F) stock is up 1% to $14.07, and General Motors (NYSE:GM) stock is up 1% to $84.84. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the S&P 500 gained 0.5% alongside the group.
The action inverts the 2026 pattern in which profitable incumbents held ground while the growth-story EV names de-rated. Tesla stock is still down 25% year to date (YTD) through Tuesday’s close, and Rivian Automotive stock is down 25% over the same window. Meanwhile, Ford stock is up 13% YTD and General Motors stock is up 3%.
Rate Relief Appears to Drive the Bid No company-specific catalyst has surfaced for Tesla or Rivian Automotive on Wednesday. The more plausible driver is a sharp move in long-end Treasury yields tied to a Treasury Department announcement on debt buybacks.
The Treasury Department stated it would increase buybacks of long-dated government debt “by at least double” for securities from the 10-year to 30-year sector. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.65%, and the 30-year yield declined 8 basis points to 5.2% after hitting its highest level since 2007 earlier this week.
Lower long-end yields tend to help high-multiple growth names, and rates also matter for vehicle demand because auto purchases are financing-sensitive. Adding to the backdrop, President Trump paused 50% tariffs on Canadian goods for three days, moving the start date to August 22, which is relevant context for automakers with cross-border supply chains. That said, one strong session doesn’t undo the year, and it’s fair to treat today’s action as a broad rate-driven bid rather than a confirmed turn in EV sentiment.
How the Peer Auto Names Traded Ford stock is up 1% to $14.07. The company’s YTD gain of 13% through Tuesday’s close is the strongest performance in the group covered here, illustrating how the legacy cash generator has held its footing while the pure-play EV complex de-rated.
In a similar vein, General Motors stock is up 1% to $84.84. The GM YTD gain of 3% through Tuesday’s close, a modest but positive result that contrasts sharply with the deep drawdown in Tesla shares and Rivian Automotive shares.
Interestingly, Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is down 0.3% to $5.76, bucking the day’s tone. The Lucid shares are down 45% YTD through Tuesday’s close, making it the weakest of the pure-play EVs in 2026 and a reminder that the cash-burn end of the complex hasn’t participated in Wednesday’s rebound.
The Thematic ETF in Focus The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) trades at $34.78 and is up 18% YTD through Tuesday’s close. The fund packages the broader EV and autonomy narrative, with holdings that span semiconductors, traditional automakers, battery producers, and lithium miners.
The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF’s top positions include Intel, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Tesla, alongside battery names such as Samsung SDI and miners including Albemarle and Rio Tinto. That breadth softens the impact of any single stock. However, a narrow theme fund still packages a single narrative and can fall even when the broad market holds up, so its price behavior isn’t a substitute for underlying fundamentals in the group.
What to Watch Traders may want to keep an eye on whether long-end yields keep drifting lower into the close, since the rate story is doing more work than any company-specific headline for the EV complex Wednesday. One session doesn’t undo the 2026 drawdown in Tesla stock or Rivian Automotive stock, and the split between profitable incumbents and cash-burning pure plays remains the defining feature of the auto tape.
A cautious approach and moderate position sizing still make sense here. The longer-term pattern could re-establish itself as quickly as it inverted today.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Also has raised another $150 million as the micromobility startup that spun out of Rivian last year expands its business beyond pedal-assist electric bikes and commercial cargo quads to autonomous delivery vehicles.
The Series D round was led by Prysm Capital and included existing backers Eclipse, Greenoaks, and MVP Ventures. Also has raised $455 million since its founding less than two years ago.
The new capital will be used to “accelerate the development” of the company’s autonomous driving technology and the “simultaneous progression of multiple autonomous form factors,” according to the company. These future vehicles will use the same electric architecture developed for its consumer electric pedal-assist bike and commercial electric delivery quad.
Prysm Capital co-founder and managing partner Jay Park said the firm is backing Also for the same reason it was an early investor in Rivian.
“We backed Rivian early because we saw the potential behind wonderfully designed, vertically integrated electric trucks, vans and SUVs,” Park said, adding that Also us applying that same approach to smaller form factor vehicles.
The fresh funding comes a few months since Also raised $200 million in a round led by Greenoaks, with participation from Prysm Capital and a strategic investment from DoorDash. As part of that funding round, DoorDash struck a multi-year commercial agreement to develop and deploy autonomous delivery vehicles.
While Also is increasingly focused on autonomous vehicle tech, that’s not where it started. Also began as a skunkworks project within Rivian, a pursuit driven by founder and CEO RJ Scaringe’s interest in micromobility. That team, which pulled in people from Apple, Google, Specialized, Tesla, evolved into a startup, which spun out of Rivian in 2025 armed with the name Also and $150 million in funding.
While Also is independent, Rivian is still very much tied to it. Rivian holds a minority stake, and Scaringe serves on its board. Also has previously said it will leverage the automaker’s tech, retail presence, and economies of scale as it grows.
Last October, Also revealed its first products, a $4,500 two-wheeler called the TM-B and two quad vehicles as well, one of which will be supplied to Amazon.
Also has struggled to get its ebike into customers’ hands and its launch edition was delayed for months. The company said the Launch edition is now beginning to ship to customers and has opened up the pre-order and configuration access to its performance and standard models. The company said initial deliveries of these other models will begin in fall.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
You can contact or verify outreach from Kirsten by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at kkorosec.07 on Signal.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock is down 25% year to date, trading at $335.45 as of Tuesday afternoon. That drawdown captures the defining EV story of 2026: a sharp de-rating in the pure-play electric vehicle complex, even as legacy auto and the broad tech tape have moved higher. Tesla shares are also down 1% Tuesday, extending the divergence.
A note on the scoreboard. Tesla’s year-to-date figure runs through Tuesday afternoon, while all peer and fund year-to-date figures referenced below are settled through Monday’s close. The peers also traded lower Tuesday, so the intraday gap versus legacy auto is, if anything, a touch wider than the settled figures imply.
Macro Pressure Meets AI Capex Scrutiny Tuesday brought broad risk-off pressure in high-multiple growth names after The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, August 17 that nine top tech companies carry roughly $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly tied to AI. That report has amplified questions about capex intensity across the AI-adjacent complex, and Tesla, given its scale of AI and compute spending, sits inside that conversation.
Rates are the other side of the vise. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high Tuesday, topping 5.3%, and was trading near 5.3%. Yields were little changed to slightly lower on the day, so the story is about the level, not the move: elevated long-end rates raise the discount rate applied to future cash flows and weigh disproportionately on the richest growth valuations.
EV Peers Slide While Legacy Auto Diverges Like Tesla, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is down 25% year to date; it’s also down 2% Tuesday to $14.64. The pattern rhymes with Tesla’s, with growth-heavy EV names giving back a large share of the 2025 optimism.
Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is down 41% year to date through Monday’s close, at $6.22. Lucid is the weakest of the pure plays this year, sitting at the low end of the EV cash-burn spectrum and carrying the tightest capital position among the group.
Meanwhile, General Motors (NYSE:GM) stock is up 3% year to date and is down 0.3% Tuesday to $84.16. The split with the EV pure plays is the cleanest read on 2026 auto: a profitable, truck-heavy incumbent has held its ground while the growth-story names have de-rated.
Broad Tape and Thematic Funds For context, Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) shares are up 17% year to date, and the NASDAQ 100 tracking ETF is down 1.7% Tuesday. That gap versus the pure-play EV names underscores that the 2026 drawdown is largely idiosyncratic to the EV pod, not a broad tech story.
The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) has gained 16% year to date. The fund is a broad autonomous and electric vehicle thematic vehicle rather than a single-stock proxy, with disclosed holdings that span semiconductor leaders, traditional automakers, battery producers, and lithium miners.
The concentration caution with the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF is thematic, not single-name. A narrow theme fund packages one narrative, and a rotation out of the AI or autonomy trade can pressure the fund even when the broad market holds up.
What to Watch The setup into late August pits two forces against each other. Elevated long-end yields keep the discount-rate math tight on growth valuations, while the broad tape has continued to grind higher on strength in the largest tech names.
Traders could look for signs that the pure-play EV drawdown broadens into thematic ETF redemptions, which would extend pressure on Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group. Shareholders may want to keep an eye on whether General Motors holds its year-to-date lead as the auto cycle enters the seasonally noisier back half.
The next real information point is fresh data on long-end rates and any follow-through on the off-balance-sheet AI commitments story. Until then, the 2026 scoreboard tells the cleanest version of the year’s auto story, with Tesla and its pure-play peers lower and General Motors, alone in the group, in the green.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
It's been a pretty good year so far for the overall market. But Rivian Automotive's (RIVN -3.19%) stock has been a clear exception to this broad trend. Shares of this electric vehicle maker are down 22% year-to-date, extending lethargy that has lingered since 2023 despite the recent launch of its ballyhooed R2 battery-electric SUV with a palatable starting price of under $60,000.
The company expects this particular vehicle to become a major profit center over time. Indeed, although the R2 accounted for only a small portion of the 12,194 EVs it delivered last quarter, it's eyeing an annual production capacity of more than 400,000 R2 vehicles, plus the eventual R3. This may well be the automobile that not only puts Rivian on the map, so to speak, but gets it over the profit hump.
Image source: Rivian Automative.
It could also be the catalyst that finally shakes RIVN stock out of its rut.
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Rivian is on the right path It's not the biggest name in the EV business -- that honor still belongs to Tesla (TSLA -0.87%) in terms of market cap, and China's BYD Company (BYDDY +1.60%) in terms of total automobile production.
There's room for more than one name in the business, though, even within the United States, where interest in electric vehicles remains tepid. And Rivian is doing the most American of things to ensure it penetrates the domestic market. That's exclusively making all-electric pickup trucks and SUVs that look like their combustion-powered counterparts.
Rivian's plan is working too. Although it's taken some time to establish some meaningful production capacity (which is still being added), consumers and institutions alike are buying as many of its electric vehicles as it can make. Last quarter's revenue of $1.66 billion was up 27% year over year, driven by a 14% increase in total deliveries. Perhaps most encouragingly, the company swung from a gross loss of $206 million in the second quarter of 2025 to a gross profit of $179 million in Q2 of this year, hinting that more scale can and does bring Rivian closer to fiscal viability.
Data source: Morningstar. Chart by author.
This is still only the beginning, though. Analysts expect full-year revenue growth to accelerate to 38.4% before rising to more than 59% next year, cutting into its net losses as Rivian taps into a seemingly tepid market that may simply be waiting for more mainstream battery-powered pickup trucks and SUVs. To this end, the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics says sport utility vehicles and pickups still account for the vast majority of the nation's automobile sales.
Only a long-term, philosophical bet This doesn't mean Rivian will be swinging to an actual net profit in the immediate future. Indeed, it probably won't be doing so anytime soon.
It doesn't necessarily need to reach a profit right away to begin rewarding patient shareholders, though. It can start doing that just by proving it's on the right trajectory, and it is. Interested investors will simply need to remember this stock is a long-term bet that the U.S. electric vehicle market will eventually firm up, and that Rivian itself stands ready to deliver the EVs that this market wants. It could remain uncomfortably volatile in the interim.
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN, Financials), a builder of electric vehicles, is closing the gap with Tesla in advanced driver-assistance technologies, making soft
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Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) stock is down 25% year to date (YTD) as of Friday’s close, a slide that stands out inside the electric vehicle cohort even as the broader autonomous and electric vehicle basket has climbed. Rivian shares are sliding again Monday afternoon, down 3% to $14.90.
The options market is priced for calm. Rivian’s worst peak-to-trough fall over the past year was 43%, and yet Rivian stock was up 27% over the past year through Friday’s close. The bigger tension inside the story is that management raised the delivery guide while loading the year into a single quarter of a first-time ramp.
The first-half margin picture leaned on a large slug of regulatory credit revenue that is now set to vanish. That’s the core of the bear case, and it belongs high in the story.
The Credits That Vanish CFO Claire McDonough confirmed on the July 30 call that Rivian booked “$164 million of regulatory credits that benefited our gross profit outlook in the first half.” Those credits largely disappear in the second half of 2026, and McDonough pointed to their absence as “the bigger driver” of a steeper second-half EBITDA loss.
Rivian’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guide improved by $50 million at the midpoint, and the delivery outlook rose by 3,000 units. Some of that improvement itself leaned on second-quarter credits and a tariff refund booked inside cost of goods, so the H2 setup is less forgiving than the guide raise suggests.
The Back-Loaded Year Management now targets 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles for the year across R1, R2 and the commercial van, which implies 42,400 to 47,400 deliveries in the second half against roughly 22,600 delivered in the first half. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2 2026. COO Javier Varela stated the second shift at the Normal, Illinois plant will “not be expecting any material contribution to volumes” in the third quarter, with the lift arriving in the fourth.
The progress underneath is real. Rivian’s automotive gross loss narrowed from $62 million in Q1 2026 to $36 million in Q2, and cost of goods per vehicle fell roughly $5,000 from Q1 to Q2 once $100 million of R2 ramp cost is excluded. McDonough reiterated that Rivian expects R2 to “achieve a positive gross profit as part of our exit rate for 2026.”
The R2 Trim Problem and Factory Math R2 launched with a $58,000 Launch Edition, the priciest variant in the line, with premium and standard trims arriving “early 2027.” CEO RJ Scaringe stated conversion rates on the Launch Edition are running “meaningfully higher than what we expected,” and non-converters mostly cite the missing trims. The constraint is cost.
R2, R1 and the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) delivery vans share the Normal plant, and Rivian’s trailing twelve month revenue sits at $5.9 billion. A plant-level margin flip against that base would be a step change rather than an increment.
Autonomy: Half the Price, Not Yet the Capability Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock was down 24% YTD through Friday’s close, and shares are trading down 0.6% to $340.37 Monday. Tesla remains the largest EV maker and the benchmark for autonomy software.
CNBC testing found Tesla’s FSD handled highway and city routes with little intervention, while Rivian’s Autonomy+ still requires driver input for some maneuvers and cannot change lanes on its own. Rivian prices Autonomy+ at $49.99 per month against Tesla’s FSD subscription at $99 per month, a genuine high-margin opportunity that is not yet proven recurring revenue.
Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) stock was down 41% YTD through Friday’s close, a far steeper decline than Rivian’s. Lucid shares are down 0.2% to $6.21 Monday. The premium EV maker’s slide illustrates the broader stress on pure-play manufacturers.
The ETF Angle The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) had gained 22% YTD through Friday’s close, in stark contrast to declines across all three pure-play EV makers.
The gains are coming from elsewhere in the supply chain, since a broad autonomous and electric vehicle basket holds far more than automakers themselves. The ETF is a narrow thematic fund with meaningful concentration risk, and it is not leveraged.
What to Watch Implied volatility on Rivian sits at 53, the sixth percentile of its trailing-year range, so the options market is priced for calm ahead of a high-stakes earnings report. Investors can watch for whether fourth-quarter deliveries land inside the 42,400 to 47,400 second-half range and whether the second shift adds volume on schedule.
The next markers are whether automotive gross profit turns positive exiting 2026 without regulatory credits, whether point-to-point driving launches this year, and whether Autonomy+ subscriptions begin converting into disclosed recurring revenue. The Q3 2026 earnings report will do most of the talking.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN -2.91%) kicked off what could become a string of strong quarterly results as the R2 launch continues to ramp up its production during the back half of 2026. Rivian's second quarter topped Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines, and the company posted a record gross profit of nearly $180 million at an 11% gross margin.
Management also raised full-year delivery guidance, narrowed its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss guidance, and lowered capital expenditure expectations. All in all, it was a strong result for the young electric vehicle (EV) maker, but the stock is up only 1% following earnings.
Here are three important things that investors may have overlooked in Rivian's earnings report.
Image source: Rivian.
Transparent liquidity
One of the biggest focal points for investors of young EV makers is liquidity, simply because young automakers face heavy capital investment requirements and are still slowly building valuable scale. Rivian exited the second quarter with $5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, but really, the company has additional transparency with future liquidity.
More specifically, when including its asset-based revolving credit facility, Rivian ended the second quarter with $5.8 billion in liquidity and added another roughly $1.3 billion in net proceeds from its July follow-on equity offering, bringing the total to nearly $7.2 billion.
Rivian's liquidity figure looks even better when you consider it expects another $1 billion in non-recourse loan capital from Volkswagen and a milestone-based investment from Uber Technologies worth $250 million -- both expected in 2026, bringing Rivian's future liquidity to $8.4 billion.
Lastly, investors also have to consider Rivian's $4.5 billion Department of Energy loan, which is earmarked for developing its second factory in Georgia, another $700 million from Uber, and another $460 million from Volkswagen, all over the next few years. That brings Rivian's expected liquidity up to around $14 billion, a much more reassuring picture for long-term investors.
Demand generation
One aspect of Rivian's second quarter that certainly seemed overlooked was its growing ability to generate demand, driven by growth in both Rivian Spaces and Demo Drives. Rivian's Demo Drive program enables prospective buyers and reservation holders to experience driving Rivian's R1S SUV, R1T truck, and the new R2.
The EV maker ended the second quarter with 43 Rivian Spaces (where demo drives take place), a 39% increase from the prior year, and an even stronger 104% increase in demo drives, which numbered over 57,000 during the second quarter alone. Also improving the user experience were a 26% increase in Rivian Adventure Network Locations and a 37% increase in Rivian Network Chargers -- both can also support demand generation.
Driverless technology
Rivian's driverless vehicle technology often takes a back seat to the company's much-hyped R2 launch and production ramp, the development of its second factory and future R3 model, and its massively valuable joint venture with Volkswagen -- but that could be an oversight. In the medium term, Rivian believes that advanced assisted driving features will be a key differentiator for customers and a driver of market share.
Rivian's Autonomy+ is progressing well, has an encouraging take rate with consumers, and is expected to roll out point-to-point capabilities by the end of this year. Point-to-point is an assisted driving feature that allows the driver to enter an address so Rivian can drive there under the driver's supervision. It's comparable to Tesla's Full-Self Driving (FSD).
What's also often overlooked is Rivian's pathway to its Level 4 autonomous robotaxi. Rivian already boasts over 3.5 million miles of universal hands-free travel across the U.S. and Canada and, as previously mentioned, plans to unveil point-to-point features later this year. Rivian is targeting eyes-off features next year and its L4 robotaxi in 2028.
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What it all means
Rivian posted an excellent second quarter with improving metrics nearly across the board. While often overlooked, the company's improving and transparent liquidity provides a cushion against adversity and ever-changing market dynamics, and its demand generation, combined with expanding driverless technology, bodes well for the company's medium-term future. Rivian also continues to separate itself from rival EV maker Lucid Group and is poised to finish 2026 on a strong note.
Americans are keeping their cars longer than ever before, with the average U.S. vehicle age rising to 12.8 years, according to Mobility Global. But some industry analysts and forecasters worry that highly complex software-defined vehicles will age more like smartphones.
These vehicles rely on sophisticated computers and software to control many functions that were once strictly mechanical or managed by simpler technology. They can also receive over-the-air software updates and are typically connected to the internet or communications networks, allowing automakers to remotely diagnose some problems, perform some fixes and add new features.
"A software-defined vehicle is really a vehicle which is no longer stale in time. It's a vehicle which continues to improve over time through over-the-air updates," said Rivian Chief Software Officer Wassym Bensaid. "What we like to say at Rivian is that the least capable Rivian you will ever get from us is on the day of your purchase, and then it will keep improving and getting better and better over time."
The rise of these tech-heavy vehicles poses implications for the entire automotive world. A vehicle costs, on average, nearly $50,000 in the U.S. — a far bigger investment than a smartphone — but as they age some features could become unavailable because of obsolete hardware or discontinued product support. Ever-changing and often proprietary technologies raise questions about the long-term repairability of a vehicle.
"We honestly don't know how long these vehicles will last," said Sam Fiorani, senior vice president of vehicle forecasting for AutoForecastSolutions. "We're already seeing problems with hardware not being able to deal with new software."
Outdated technologyIt's not the first time vehicle owners have faced technology losses.
In 2022, AT&T was the first telecommunications company to shut down its 3G wireless network, leaving millions of vehicles from a host of brands without access to features such as emergency response services and some navigation and infotainment options. The vehicles were still operable, just without perks that had been included when the owners purchased their vehicles.
Tesla, meanwhile, said in 2016 that every vehicle being produced had the hardware needed for full self-driving, or FSD, and CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed in 2019 that the company's then-new Hardware 3 computer would support the feature. But this April, Musk said Hardware 3 vehicles would need upgraded computers and cameras for "unsupervised" FSD. Tesla said qualifying customers could receive either a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
Rivian's Bensaid said the company tries to build enough hardware capability — what he calls "headroom" — to handle about seven to 10 years of software upgrades.
"There's a distinction between feature updates, which is a new additional functionality that you may get post-launch and post-purchase of the car, and then safety updates or security updates," he said. "Our commitment to our owners is safety and security updates will be supported by Rivian indefinitely. Your vehicle will stay fully functional, fully safe, whatever the duration of the ownership is."
Long-term concernsSam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research for Telemetry, expects it will become common for features to be updated for a few years, then drop off as software outgrows hardware. But automakers will likely still provide a basic level of support, especially in the form of safety and security patches and bug fixes.
"From a product liability perspective and a safety perspective, they have an incentive to fix those problems as much as they possibly can," he said.
But maintaining software costs money, while hardware can break down and require replacement.
The loss of 3G services on those cars in 2022 raised the question of whether resale value would drop as a result. Fiorani said a larger share of customers are turning to used cars and that he worries about the long-term availability of affordable used vehicles.
Software-defined vehicles are "unlikely to fundamentally change the used car market," said Alex Yurchenko, vice president of data insights at J.D. Power. However, the market could split into two categories: vehicles with ongoing over-the-air support that retain value better, and those without. Manufacturer-certified used vehicle programs could become more important, as customers might prefer the reassurance, he said.
"Valuation remains a challenge," he said. "There are no widely accepted standards for assessing software-enabled features, and buyers may have concerns about [advanced driver-assistance system] calibration, feature availability, data privacy, and the long-term availability of subscriptions or connected services."
Fiorani, who is a fan of classic cars, wonders what the rise of software-defined vehicles will mean for car culture, such as collectors, restorers and other enthusiasts.
"Going further out, when those vehicles become classics, how are they going to be maintained and how are they going to support aftermarket care?" he said.
Older cars can bring their own challenges: obscure parts and difficult-to-locate service manuals, to name a few. A vehicle that runs on a proprietary software platform presents a different set of challenges, and servicing it can require specialized skills, tools and access to vehicle data.
So-called right to repair laws that give consumers more access to fix their phones, cars and other technology have begun to spread throughout the U.S.
Bensaid said Rivian vehicles will soon provide owners more access to the vehicle to comply with these laws.
"One of the upcoming updates that we will have is actually to unblock what we call the service menu within the car and really allow our owners to perform more actions in line with the right to repair regulations," he said. "But then we want to go even above and beyond that and really allow that possibility for owners within the car to perform a full diagnostic check using our AI assistant, using the on-screen menus, and then perform some of the basic repairs, and then guide them through some of the certified third parties that we recommend."
Abuelsamid said companies that choose to no longer provide support for their products should be required to release the software to third parties that can maintain it.
"If we go down that path, we really ingrain right to repair as something that everyone has access to then, yeah, I'm more optimistic than I used to be," he said.
DETROIT — What's the best advanced driver-assistance system on the market? Ask Rivian Automotive's new artificial intelligence and it will say its creator.
"Rivian's is truly exceptional … an unmatched blend of safety and technology," the chatbot told me during hourslong drives in one of its R1T pickup trucks in which the vehicle largely controlled itself on several Midwest highways.
While the Rivian AI bot may be biased, that's exactly the company's goal with a new generation of vehicle software and technologies: to be the best. Rivian is trying to catch up to — and then surpass — Tesla's FSD (Supervised) capabilities, but with additional safety guardrails that the Elon Musk company doesn't use.
Based on recent drives totaling hundreds of miles, Rivian's Autonomy+ has surpassed legacy competitors such as General Motors' Super Cruise with its ADAS. But it's still playing catch up to Tesla's FSD when it comes to nonhighway driving and point-to-point driving, where a vehicle is designed to navigate itself from start to finish. I drove a recent version of FSD (Supervised) v14 to compare the technology.
Rivian expects to deliver point-to-point driving later this year but, for now, its system is a giant leap forward for the company compared with what it previously offered and is clearly laying the groundwork to better compete with Tesla.
"That's the next step," said James Philbin, senior vice president of autonomy and AI at Rivian. "Tesla's system you use is a point-to-point system. So that that's the next big leap for us in a way, is getting to that same point-to-point type interaction and that system where it really does the full driving task."
To be clear, no vehicle on sale today is self-driving or autonomous. Drivers always need to pay attention and be ready to take over. Many advanced driver-assistance systems, or ADAS, can control a vehicle's speed, braking and steering using cameras, sensors and/or mapping data. An increasing amount of systems allow humans to take their hands off the wheel when in use.
Rivian credits its improvements with its push toward vertical integration that included a new generation of software and electric architecture for its vehicles. It's just beginning to reap the benefits with its ADAS.
The technologies also are increasingly more important to drivers and investors, which are targeting ADAS as growth markets with recurring revenue for automakers.
"We favor self-reliant (and properly-valued) companies that are building next-gen machines using in-house expertise," Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in an investor note upgrading Rivian's stock last month. "As volume rises, Rivian should be better able to monetize software & services, a key benefit of vertical integration."
The systems vary in pricing but can be initially included in a vehicle's purchase or bought via subscriptions. Tesla's system is currently $99 a month, according to its website. Rivian's is $49.99 a month or $2,500 to purchase for the lifetime of a vehicle. GM's is $39.99 a month or $399 a year.
Rivian vs. TeslaThe biggest operational difference between ADAS technologies from Tesla and Rivian is their ability to control the vehicle on nonhighway streets with traffic lights and signs.
Rivian's system currently detects those roadway signals, but it does not do anything about them other than alert the driver that they are coming. Meanwhile, Tesla's system handled every signal, interchange and exit ramp I encountered for nearly 200 miles in rural Michigan and downtown Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Based on a decade of experience driving with hands-free ADAS, those two technologies are by far the most advanced. This has not always been the case.
GM, not Tesla, led the development of hands-free highway systems with its Super Cruise, which I initially tested a year before its debut in 2017. But America's largest automaker was slow to roll it out on new vehicles or significantly grow its capabilities other than expanding geographies and making it able to do lane changes.
Ford Motor also quickly caught up to GM on highways, but both continue to lack systems that are capable of hands-free driving on nonhighways. The two automakers are working on that type of technology, including so-called eyes-off capabilities, but they are not expected until 2028.
It's a difficult leap, as Tesla's in-vehicle Grok AI told me during nearly 200 miles of driving in a 2025 Tesla Model Y: "Highways have predictable lanes, speed, fewer pedestrians and clear markings, making sensor fusion and path prediction simpler. City streets bring chaos, intersections, bikes, peds, construction and ambiguous rules that challenge even top AI vision systems."
Challenging for some more than others. During my drives in the Model Y, the vehicle was essentially controlling itself for multiple hours and dozens of miles without intervention on highway and nonhighway roads.
It somewhat effortlessly handled several traffic circles, also known as roundabouts, and parked for me multiple times when arriving at or near destinations, including parallel parking. It also managed a semitruck blocking half a lane on a two-lane road as well as pretty complex construction zones, with Tesla's ADAS sensing each barrel or cone.
The Rivian technology handled highway driving very well with no intervention outside of exit ramps and, at times, construction zones. It also isn't able to change lanes on its own yet, which the company promises is coming soon.
When I asked Rivian about several of my experiences, the company said its vehicles can detect construction objects but it does not always display them on the in-vehicle screen. Its system also still needs assistance in certain locations, such as roundabouts.
Read more CNBC auto newsGM to launch proprietary in-vehicle AI system later this yearWhy Ford believes its 10.2% July U.S. sales decline was still a ‘good’ monthAre Americans ready to embrace tiny 'cars'? These companies think soFerrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debutSafety concerns remainAll ADAS technologies — except a Mercedes-Benz system in limited circumstances — still need drivers to monitor the systems, even if they can largely control the vehicle without human intervention for hundreds of miles.
With the rise of "hands-off" technology, industry insiders and regular people alike have raised concerns about driver inattentiveness. Automakers have been largely trying to fight that with driver-facing cameras. But concerns remain about the ADAS handover back to a driver as well as on people over-relying on the systems.
YouTube is filled with examples of drivers misusing such systems, particularly Tesla products, as well as videos of ADAS doing human-like moves but also malfunctioning and needing assistance.
The handover from ADAS to humans can be abrupt and lead to dire circumstances if drivers aren't attentive enough to immediately retake control of the vehicle.
There's also little regulation for the systems, with each company taking different approaches.
"I hope that we can even exceed the Tesla system because of our investments in a more robust sensor stack," Rivian's Philbin said. "We're actually a big believer in multimodal imaging, so cameras and radars, and later on, early next year, lidar as well on the R2."
Rivian's system uses at least 10 high dynamic range cameras, five radars and some map data to assist the vehicle in "seeing" the road. It's also expected to launch vehicles with lidar, or light detection and ranging, that improves a vehicle's "sight." Tesla's system relies on cameras and a "vision-based" setup that some have criticized for not being robust enough, especially under certain conditions.
Tesla's partially automated driving systems have been under scrutiny for many years. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration earlier this year said it was escalating a probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) after identifying several crashes, including one fatal incident in which the system failed to alert drivers appropriately about reduced-visibility conditions, such as sun glare or fog.
Philbin said it's those types of circumstances where noncamera technology, including lidar, can better detect potential hazards and objects. My drives were on clear days without any inclement weather.
Still, despite not having many sensors, Tesla's Grok chatbot — developed by Musk's xAI, which merged with SpaceX earlier this year — also felt its brand has the superior system, which is true for many driving situations, at least for now.
"Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is widely rated as the top advanced driver assistance system in 2026 by sources like Motor Trend and others," Grok AI said. It later added, "Rivian's AI Assistant is solid for voice controls, navigation, and vehicle features in their R1 vehicles, but it's still catching up to more advanced systems like ours and full self-driving capabilities."
Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.
McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.
His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.
The global market for electric vehicles (EVs) was either summer-hot or frosty-cold in July, with sharp differences across regions. All in all, however, demand for both EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) continued to rise.
Let’s break this down a bit and flag a company or two that stands to benefit from the recent dynamics.
Image source: Getty Images.
Forward here, reverse thereData compiled by the researcher Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (and cited by media outlets like Reuters on Thursday) show that unit sales of EVs and hybrids combined increased by 9% year over year in July. In total, roughly 1.85 million units were sold, bringing the year-to-date tally to 11.5 million.
But investors in EV and hybrid makers shouldn’t necessarily go on a victory ride over this news. Although overall sales were brisk, this was due to scattered pockets of growth rather than a consistent worldwide push to buy such vehicles.
For example, sales in Europe surged 33% higher to around 450,000 units, lifting the year-to-date growth to 28%. The major factor in this was a wide set of financial incentives and tax breaks for EV/hybrid adapters. These included the restoration of income-pegged subsidies in Germany, the restart of a low-income leasing assistance program in France, and an increase in the tax deduction for corporate fleet purchases in Austria.
In China, however, sales fell by 5% to 980,000 units. Consumers in the massive Asian market were swayed by the government’s winding down of vehicle tax exemptions for hybrids and range-extended EVs; unit sales of such craft plummeted by 21%. Yet this was mitigated somewhat by the continued popularity of pure EVs — due in no small part to continued build-outs of charging networks. Also, Chinese exports remain popular abroad.
Speaking of subsidies, the end of the federal Clean Vehicle Credit on Sept. 30, 2025 is still affecting U.S. sales. Unit volume in EVs and hybrids combined tumbled by 27% in July to 140,000.
Sales in the rest of the world — i.e., outside of China, Europe, and America — almost doubled, meanwhile, to 280,000 vehicles.
The strength of the subsidyNo matter the health of a local/regional economy or the buying power of its people, vehicles are expensive, high-commitment purchases. That’s why the subsidies, or lack of them, matter so much. The possibility of saving thousands of euros, dollars, or pounds on a new ride often makes the difference in a consumer’s choice between a traditional car and an EV or hybrid.
Another major factor influencing many consumers worldwide is the sharp, recent rise in fuel prices. These are dramatically driving up the cost of ownership for traditional models, giving a free boost to a key selling point for electrics.
So, which manufacturers are looking particularly attractive given the July dynamics? I’d say the sweet spot here is the Chinese carmakers that focus exclusively or chiefly on EVs. Nio (NIO -0.88%) is worth a look as a maker of higher-margin premium models, and Xpeng (XPEV +0.26%) stands to gain from its relatively strong presence on that surging European market.
At home, American EV king Tesla (TSLA +3.80%) doesn’t look as appealing. It’s selling into that domestic market slump; meanwhile, it aims to pivot into one unproven segment (domestic robots, with Optimus) and another where it’s already behind (autonomous rides-for-hire, with the Robotaxi). Rivian (RIVN -0.69%) has more potential than Tesla, as it’s a powerhouse in the pickup market with its R1 model and is doing well in the EV delivery-vehicle niche.
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On Thursday, the July report helped lift the stocks of most EV/hybrid makers to varying degrees. I have to point out that these days, there is plenty of diversity in the industry, so investors need to be selective and discerning. And, it probably goes without saying, vigilant about monitoring those overall sales statistics.
Rivian (RIVN -0.18%) launched its R2 SUV in the U.S. on June 9. The premium EV maker expects the new vehicle, which costs less than its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, to expand its addressable market and widen its moat against Tesla (TSLA +0.58%). But how many R2 SUVs does Rivian need to sell to double its stock price over the next 12 months?
Image source: Getty Images.
How many R2 SUVs does Rivian plan to sell in 2026? In 2025, Rivian's vehicle deliveries declined 18% to 42,247 units as it struggled with macro, supply chain, and competitive headwinds. But in 2026, it expects its deliveries to soar to 65,000-67,000 vehicles as it overcomes those challenges and ramps up its R2 deliveries.
It expects the R2 to account for 20,000-25,000 of those vehicles. A higher mix of R2 SUVs relative to the R1 would also boost its gross margins, since they cost less to manufacture.
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Could hitting that target cause Rivian's stock to double? If it hits that target, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to surge 38% to $7.5 billion in 2026. That's an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at just three times this year's sales. Considering that Tesla trades at 12 times this year's sales, it's certainly possible for Rivian's stock -- which has dropped nearly 80% from its IPO price -- to double if its R2 sales soar.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Shares of Nio (NYSE:NIO | NIO Price Prediction) are down 5% to $4.57 in Tuesday morning trading, the clear outlier across electric vehicle names today. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is up 1% to $335.36, Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) shares are up 1% to $6.68, and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is down 1% to $16.25.
The sector tape is calm. The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is flat at $35.79; this is an unleveraged thematic fund whose steady print underscores that today’s action is a single-name move rather than a broad EV or autonomous vehicle selloff. That said, DRIV carries sector-concentration risk that prospective investors should consider.
The catalyst is an institutional disclosure, not an operating stumble at Nio. NIO stock is reacting to a 13F filing from BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) that showed a trimmed position as of June 30, a point-in-time snapshot the market is treating as the day’s dominant signal.
BlackRock’s Disclosed NIO Trim Sparks the Selloff BlackRock disclosed in its latest 13F that it reduced its Nio position by 12% during the second quarter, selling 1.2 million shares and ending June with 9.5 million shares valued at $47.9 million as of June 30. That filing landed roughly 45 days after quarter end, so it doesn’t describe BlackRock’s live position today.
Still, the disclosure landed hard on Nio stock. Nio carries a $10.71 billion market cap and 12.3% institutional ownership, so a headline stake reduction from the world’s largest asset manager drew immediate attention from traders positioning around the stock.
The same filing shows BlackRock trimmed its XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) share position by 24% in the quarter. XPEV stock is down 2% to $11.77 this morning, adding weight to the read that institutions rotated out of Chinese EV names during the period covered by the filing.
Record ES9 Demand Gets Overshadowed The operating story at Nio actually improved into the disclosure window. The company delivered its 20,000th ES9 SUV just 73 days after handovers began, a record in China’s premium all-electric segment, and July deliveries came in at 35,934 vehicles, up 71% year over year (YoY).
Nio’s Q1 2026 numbers backed that trajectory. The company reported revenue of $3.7 billion, with deliveries of 83,465 units up 98.3% YoY. Gross margin came in at 19%, and Q2 2026 delivery guidance sits at 110,000 to 115,000 units.
Still, none of that carried the day. NIO stock is reacting to the disclosed BlackRock trim rather than the operating beat, a reminder that institutional positioning can override fundamentals over short windows, especially in a lower-priced stock.
Rotation Into U.S. EV Names The rotation angle is direct. Per the same 13F, BlackRock roughly doubled its Lucid Group share position to a record 12 million shares and raised its Rivian stock holdings to a record 56.4 million shares, while remaining one of Tesla’s largest institutional shareholders.
That helps explain the divergence on the tape today. Lucid stock is holding a gain even after a rough week, Rivian shares are drifting lower, and Tesla stock is edging higher off recent lows. The read: this is a Chinese EV drawdown story confined to a positioning shift.
Deutsche Bank estimates continue to frame Nio’s delivery ramp constructively into the back half of the year. However, positioning flows can outrun fundamentals in the short term, and a large disclosed trim invites momentum sellers regardless of the underlying operating cadence.
What to Watch Investors can watch for whether Nio’s monthly delivery cadence sustains the July pace and whether XPeng stock follows Nio lower on the shared 13F angle. Follow-through selling in XPEV stock would signal broader Chinese ADR de-risking rather than a single-position trim.
The full-chain put/call ratio on NIO stock sits at 0.4, suggesting options traders aren’t aggressively hedging further downside from here. Position sizing in NIO stock should stay moderate given its 52-week range of $4.37 to $8.02 and its 90% five-year drawdown.
Nio hasn’t announced its next earnings date. The likely near-term catalyst is the August delivery report, and that report could reset the narrative if the July momentum holds. Until then, expect the BlackRock headline to set the tone on NIO stock.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Building a company is hard. But building one that also designs, manufactures, and delivers hardware at scale, from a factory floor, with supply chain concerns galore is another order of difficulty. And Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe is speaking at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 to detail that journey and the lessons it’s bestowed.
Rivian sits at the intersection of AI, software, robotics, manufacturing, and transportation. And Scaringe has spent the better part of two decades proving that intersection isn’t just survivable. He also thinks it’s about to become much more crowded.
Scaringe’s Disrupt Stage session is just one of many big conversations happening at Disrupt this year, running October 13-15 at San Francisco’s Moscone Center. Check out the programming that’s been announced so far here, and if you don’t already have a ticket, lock in yours before our next price increase on August 22.
What Scaringe brings to the Disrupt Stage Rivian has begun rolling out the R2, the roughly $58,000 SUV that Scaringe is counting on to do what the pricier R1T and R1S didn’t: expand Rivian beyond the niche market. He’s called it “maybe the most important thing we’ve launched to date” amid slowing demand for costlier EVs and mounting competitive pressure, especially from lower-cost Chinese EV manufacturers.
At the same time, Scaringe has been expanding beyond vehicles. He’s laid out a roadmap to full Level 4 autonomy by 2028, and he’s building out Rivian’s own charging network with ambitions to become one of the largest in the U.S.
Scaringe also founded Mind Robotics, a humanoid robotics company that’s raised $900 million this year alone, which he runs as executive chair and acting CEO, with Rivian as a large shareholder and launch customer. With the goal of turning Rivian’s factory floor in Normal, Illinois, into a proving ground for more ingrained human and robotic coexistence on the assembly line, Scaringe sees an opportunity to directly address an anticipated shortage in human labor.
And exclusively at Disrupt 2026, you’ll get to watch Scaringe detail how all of these investments fit together, and what he’s learned about building in the physical world and then bringing AI into the fold, while many AI companies try to accomplish the inverse.
To hear it in person and join the 10,000+ founders, investors, and technologists heading to San Francisco for TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 on October 13-15, grab your ticket today to make sure you get the best available price.
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Key Takeaways Rivian raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 vehicles as R2 deliveries ramp in the second half.Rivian's software and services revenue rose 37% to $515 million, with gross profit reaching $215 million.RIVN posted negative free cash flow of $849 million in Q2 as R2 and other investments kept spending high. Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) is entering a pivotal phase as R2 deliveries begin to widen its market while spending remains high. The company raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 vehicles, with volumes expected to accelerate in the second half.
The upside rests on better factory utilization, software profitability and strategic funding. The counterweight is a still-loss-making automotive business, negative free cash flow and substantial capital needs.
Rivian's R2 Opportunity Meets Execution RiskR2 is Rivian’s most important near-term growth driver. Customer deliveries began in June 2026, and reservation conversion for the $58,000 Launch Edition exceeded management’s internal expectations. Lower-priced trims are planned for early 2027, which could broaden Rivian’s customer base further.
Execution remains the key test. Rivian recorded about $100 million of incremental R2 ramp costs in the second quarter of 2026, and management expects launch complexity to weigh on automotive gross profit again in the third quarter. The company plans to move R2 from one shift to two by the end of the third quarter, while deliveries are expected to be weighted toward the fourth quarter. Any disruption could delay the expected 2026 exit-rate improvement in automotive gross profit.
RIVN's Software Mix Supports Gross ProfitSoftware and services provided Rivian’s main source of consolidated profitability in the second quarter. Segment revenues increased 37% year over year to $515 million, while gross profit reached $215 million for a 42% margin.
The Volkswagen (VWAGY - Free Report) joint venture generated $308 million, or 60%, of segment revenues. That contribution validates the commercial value of Rivian’s software and electrical architecture. Uber Technologies (UBER - Free Report) also plans a $1.25 billion investment through 2031, subject to milestones. These relationships provide capital support and broaden the commercialization path for Rivian’s technology.
Rivian's Cash Burn Keeps Capital Needs HighRivian used $487 million of cash in operating activities and spent $362 million on capital expenditures in the second quarter, resulting in negative free cash flow of $849 million. The company ended the period with $5.31 billion of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
Liquidity was supplemented by about $1.3 billion raised through a July equity offering. Rivian also expects $1 billion of nonrecourse debt financing from Volkswagen and a $250 million equity investment from Uber, subject to specified conditions. Even with those funding sources, spending on R2, service infrastructure, autonomy and the Georgia plant keeps capital requirements elevated.
RIVN Trades Below Its Sub-Industry Sales MultipleRIVN trades at 2.37X forward 12-month sales, below 3.07X for its Zacks sub-industry and its own five-year median of 2.66X. The discount can make the shares look relatively inexpensive on sales.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
That valuation needs to be weighed against the company’s expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8-$2 billion. Continued cash consumption and the July stock sale also show that dilution remains a relevant risk while Rivian funds growth before company-wide profitability.
Rivian Stock Looks Like a Hold NowRivian’s growth case is improving, but the financial profile still argues for patience. R2 can expand the addressable market and software offers higher-margin support, while cash burn and manufacturing execution remain central constraints.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s 2026 and 2027 bottom line implies a year-over-year improvement of 7% and 23%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Rivian also has a VGM Score of F, Value Score of F, Momentum Score of F and Growth Score of C. Rivian’s scores suggest that its improving growth prospects have not yet translated into favorable value and momentum characteristics.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
As of this writing, Rivian (RIVN +4.03%) stock sits at about $16, giving the company a market value of about $23 billion. For that price, investors get an electric vehicle maker that will deliver perhaps 70,000 vehicles this year, still loses money on them at the gross level, and just started shipping the product its whole investment case rests on.
That last part is why the next three years matter so much. The R2, a smaller and more affordable SUV than Rivian's first models, began reaching customers on June 9. Whether the stock is higher or lower in 2029 comes down to how many R2s the company builds -- and what each one earns.
Image source: Rivian.
The business the R2 is supposed to change Rivian's second-quarter report, released July 30, showed a company heading into the ramp with momentum. Revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.66 billion, and deliveries climbed 14% to 12,194 vehicles, well above the 9,000 to 11,000 management had forecast. That outperformance led the company to raise its full-year delivery outlook to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, from 62,000 to 67,000.
The profit picture is improving, too, though from a low base. Consolidated gross profit came in at $179 million in the second quarter, an 11% margin.
However, the automotive segment itself ran a $36 million gross loss. That's a dramatic improvement from the $335 million automotive gross loss of a year earlier -- helped in part by regulatory credit revenue -- and management said the quarter absorbed approximately $100 million of incremental costs from ramping R2 production. Strip those out, and the vehicle business would have been modestly profitable at the gross level.
What actually carried the quarter was software and services. The segment generated $515 million in revenue, up 37% year over year, with $215 million of gross profit, a 42% margin.
The commercial side keeps scaling, too. Amazon now has more than 40,000 Rivian electric delivery vans on the road.
Still, Rivian remains deeply unprofitable overall. The company expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss of $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion, and it plans capital spending of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion this year. A $5.3 billion pile of cash and short-term investments at the end of June, since topped up by a stock sale in early July, is what funds the ramp.
The math three years out So, what could the business look like in 2029?
Rivian says its two U.S. plants (Normal, Illinois, today, plus a Georgia site backed by a Department of Energy loan of up to $4.5 billion) support capacity growth to as much as 515,000 vehicles per year in later phases. I wouldn't model anything close to full utilization by 2029. But a path from about 70,000 deliveries to somewhere near 200,000 over three years relies on expansion the company is already building, not on new ideas.
Suppose that volume arrives. At an assumed blended price of around $60,000 (R2s at the lower end of the lineup, R1s and commercial vans above it), 200,000 vehicles would produce automotive revenue near $12 billion. Add a software and services business compounding at anything like its current 37% rate, and total revenue could reach $17 billion or so, against about $6.6 billion annualized today.
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On that math, today's market value works out to about 1.4 times that future revenue -- not a demanding multiple, if the vehicles earn money by then.
That "if" is, to me, the entire investment case. A carmaker that still loses money on its vehicles at 70,000 units has to prove that volume fixes the problem. Management's case is that shared production lines in Normal spread fixed costs across more vehicles as R2 scales. The second half of this year offers the first evidence either way.
The downside is just as easy to sketch, though. EV demand can wobble, and ramps can slip. A company running an adjusted EBITDA loss near $2 billion a year has less room for error than its cash balance suggests -- and Rivian priced a 75 million-share stock offering as recently as early July.
My answer to the three-year question: The stock could be meaningfully higher if R2 volume shows up with a real gross margin attached, because the current valuation arguably isn't pricing in much success. But this remains a speculative stock, not a proven business. I'd treat it accordingly -- and only with money I could afford to see shrink.
SummaryStrong R2 sales conversion and completed Normal facility upgrading contributed to Rivian's raised FY2026 delivery guidance, with a heavily weighted Q4'26 cadence.The management expects to exit Q4'26 with positive R2 gross margins, with 2027 expected to bring forth improved top/bottom-line metrics.Partnerships with AMZN, VWAGY, and UBER underpin RIVN’s ability to scale production, diversify revenue, and bridge to profitability over the next several years.The recent correction has overly discounted the automaker's top-line growth prospects at a 3Y CAGR of +43.9% at a cheap EV/Sales of 3x.RIVN remains a Buy for the contrarian, attributed to volatility risks through the softer trading months, elevated short interest ratio, and ongoing cash burn. 400tmax/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
I previously rated Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) as a Buy in May 2026, thanks to the cheap valuations from the prior meltdown and the accretive partnerships.
In this article, I shall discuss why I am
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One of the most important ways Rivian (RIVN -1.16%) has separated itself from rival Lucid (LCID +4.18%) has been its ability to improve vehicle unit economics. It's well known that Rivian expects the R2 to check in at about half the production cost of even the more recent R1 vehicles. Rivian's improving unit economics have consistently improved its gross margins, even achieving its first full-year gross profit in 2025.
Rivian is about to be put to the test during the R2 ramp-up, and my prediction is that we're about to see Rivian's automotive gross profit finally turn positive as early as the third quarter -- software and services have largely been driving overall gross profitability. Let's take a look at where the EV maker's automotive gross profit is trending and why it matters.
Gross profit progress Here's a quick look at the consistent progress that Rivian has made in its gross profitability compared to rival Lucid, which has been unable to make the same improvements to vehicle costs and scale.
RIVN Gross Profit (Quarterly) data by YCharts
As you can see, while Lucid has remained largely flat in gross profitability, Rivian's improving unit economics have consistently driven its results higher, despite starting from a worse initial position than Lucid. Rivian's second quarter brought more improvement: Consolidated gross profit was $179 million, a significant $385 million improvement over the prior year.
It's important to break down consolidated gross profits into two segments: automotive, software, and services. As R2 deliveries accelerate, it should drive automotive gross profitability higher and provide a nice boost to the company's efforts to one day reach operating profits and become a self-funding business -- exactly what will generate demand for the stock and send its price higher.
Rivian's R2. Image source: Rivian.
Breaking it down During the second quarter, automotive gross profit was a loss of $36 million, still a vast improvement over the prior year's $335 million loss. Software and services gross profit not only checked in at $215 million but also at an impressive 42% margin. Those are not margins historically associated with the automotive industry, but that narrative is slowly changing for the better as more vehicles are software-defined and loaded with apps, services, and subscriptions.
While software and services have been the gross profit engine, Rivian has significant upside in automotive gross profitability as the R2 continues to accelerate production and even adds a second production shift toward the end of the third quarter.
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What's in store for Rivian stock? Rivian's automotive gross profit was a little tricky to gauge in the second quarter because the improvement was aided by factors beyond increases in production and delivery volumes. Rivian benefited from increased revenue from regulatory credits, as well as from an IEEPA tariff refund receivable. On the flip side, as Rivian only began external deliveries of the R2 as of June 9, it recognized roughly $100 million in incremental cost of revenues due to the early production ramp-up relative to expected levels.
All that said, analysts at Baird cited improved gross margins as a primary reason for upgrading Rivian stock to "outperform." Meanwhile, analysts at TD Cowen also raised Rivian's price target to $21, maintained its "buy" rating, and also noted improved margins and a bright outlook for the R2 program.
It'll be a significant challenge for Rivian to flip automotive gross profit into positive territory in the third quarter due to early-launch economics as it works toward normalized production levels. Still, it's possible given the progress it has consistently made.
Starting with the second quarter of 2025, Rivian's automotive gross margin has moved from (36%) to (11%), (7%), (7%), and (3%) each quarter. But my prediction is that once a second shift of R2 production is added, improving scale and plant production optimization, it will turn positive during the fourth quarter and quickly grow to rival, and perhaps surpass, software gross profits in the medium term.
Rivian (RIVN -0.16%) started shipping its newest electric vehicle, the R2 SUV, in the U.S. in early June. With a starting price of $57,990, the R2 is Rivian's most affordable vehicle ever. It plans to launch an even lower-priced version starting at $45,000 by the end of 2027.
Back in March, Uber (UBER +2.71%) said it would purchase 10,000 fully autonomous R2 robotaxis with an option to buy up to 40,000 more in 2030. Uber also plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, contingent on the company achieving its autonomous driving milestones. Let's see how that deal could generate tailwinds for both companies.
Image source: Rivian.
Why is this a mutually beneficial deal? In 2025, Rivian's vehicle deliveries fell 18% year over year to 42,247 as it grappled with macro, supply chain, and competitive headwinds. But for 2026, it expects its deliveries to surge to 65,000-67,000 vehicles as it ramps up its production and deliveries of the R2. The R2 also costs less to manufacture than Rivian's other vehicles, so its rising sales should boost its margins and make its stock more attractive.
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As for Uber, its investment in Rivian reflects its long-term commitment to automating its ride-hailing business. It won't boost its profits anytime soon, but it should widen its moat against Alphabet's Waymo and other robotaxi operators.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
