Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $15.84, moving -3.8% from the previous trading session. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.05%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.46%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.64%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars had gained 10.77% outpaced the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 9.85% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.61%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Rivian Automotive in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on July 30, 2026. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of -$0.65, showcasing a 18.75% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $1.58 billion, up 21.24% from the year-ago period.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of -$2.37 per share and a revenue of $7.16 billion, representing changes of +3.27% and +32.97%, respectively, from the prior year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Rivian Automotive. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 1.02% increase. Right now, Rivian Automotive possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 160, placing it within the bottom 35% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
The U.S. Department of Justice has charged two Volkswagen engineers with securities fraud for an alleged insider-trading scheme connected to the German automaker’s joint venture with Rivian.
The indictment, unsealed Friday by the U.S. District Attorney for the Southern District of New York, alleges that Michael Stamp and Marcus Plank made more than $300,000 by using confidential insider information. Stamp and Plank allegedly bought Rivian stock and options after learning that the EV maker and Volkswagen planned to form a joint venture — internally codenamed “Project Climb” — but before the companies made any public announcements.
Rivian and Volkswagen announced plans for the joint venture on June 25, 2024, which would focus on developing electric vehicle architecture and software. Volkswagen initially committed to invest $5 billion in Rivian, with the capital to be released as the companies achieve certain milestones. The joint venture has since grown to $5.8 billion, and Volkswagen is now Rivian’s largest shareholder.
Rivian’s stock price rose 23% following the initial announcement in June. Stamp and Plank then allegedly sold their Rivian positions, with Stamp realized about $250,000 in profits, Plank realizing about $50,000, and Plank’s close family member realizing about $12,000, as detailed in the indictment.
“Michael Stamp and Marcus Plank’s alleged exploitation of their employer’s confidential information allowed them to make more than $300,000 in illegal profits,” U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said in a statement Friday. “When people misuse confidential information for their own financial gain, they undermine the principles that allow our markets to function fairly and efficiently. Insider trading is a crime that New Yorkers want pursued with vigor. Its effects ripple through the financial system, harming ordinary investors and eroding public confidence. Today’s charges underscore the commitment of this Office and our law enforcement partners to protecting the integrity of our markets and holding accountable those who choose to violate the law.”
Investigators allege the two engineers understood their actions were illegal. Eight days prior to the joint venture was announced, Stamp searched “statute of limitations insider trading,” and Plank’s close family member searched, in German, “how is insider trading prosecuted?,” according to the indictment.
The pair, who both live in San Jose, were arrested Friday and will appear in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Katherine Polk Failla. Stamp and Plank face up to 25 years in prison if convicted of federal securities fraud.
TechCrunch has reached out to Rivian and Volkswagen for comment and will update the article if either company responds.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
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Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) are trading at $308.05 in Friday afternoon action, down 4% on the day and 18% over the past month.
Rivian has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government in an attempt to claw back a “full refund” on tariffs it paid under President Trump’s “Liberation Day” taxes, which the Supreme Court later ruled unconstitutional.
The automaker joins a long line of companies seeking such refunds. In April, Rivian CFO Claire McDonough said she expected the company stood to reap a refund in the “tens of millions of dollars.”
Rivian’s action comes as the company is in the middle of rolling out its first mass-market SUV, the R2. It expects to ship around 20,000-25,000 of them by the end of this year, and help the company finally reach profitability. Reaching that goal may not happen until 2028, though, as Rivian is plowing a lot of money into developing autonomous vehicles at the moment. The company recently sold shares to raise around $1.3 billion to help pad out its cash balance in the meantime.
The lawsuit, filed on Thursday in the U.S. Court of International Trade, names the U.S. government, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and its commissioner Rodney Scott as defendants. CBP collected the tariffs on behalf of the Trump administration, which tried to justify them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
In a statement to TechCrunch, CBP said that over $121 billion in both “potential and certified refunds have been accepted for processing .” The agency did not comment specifically on the lawsuit.
Earlier this month, the Cato Institute wrote that $71 billion had been paid out, which “suggests that frictions built into” the refund process created “obstacles for importers seeking refunds.”
According to Rivian’s lawsuit, the company wants a guarantee that it will get its money — and the proper amount — back from the government.
“Although the Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs, this separate action remains necessary because importers that have paid IEEPA tariffs, including Plaintiffs, are not guaranteed a refund of amounts previously paid based on the Supreme Court’s decision,” Rivian’s lawyers wrote in the complaint.
Rivian did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters last year after the tariffs were imposed that he expected the cost of each vehicle to rise by “a couple of thousand dollars” as a result. By the end of 2025, he said the company had mitigated the impact to “low hundreds of dollars.”
“The resulting environment of retaliatory trade or other practices or additional trade restrictions or barriers has harmed, and could continue to harm, our ability to obtain necessary raw materials, components and equipment and could harm our ability to sell our products and services at prices customers are willing to pay,” the company wrote in a regulatory filing earlier this year.
Rivian is asking the trade court to declare the tariffs “contrary to law,” issue a refund with interest, and pay any associated court fees.
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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.
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When the year began, I named Rivian (RIVN -4.19%) my top growth stock for 2026. The thesis was simple: Rivian's growth journey has become much more lucrative, yet the stock continues to trade at a discount to competitors like Lucid Group (LCID -4.87%) and Tesla across several key valuation metrics.
In the past, Rivian was viewed mostly as an electric vehicle (EV) stock. Indeed, the company now produces three electric vehicles: the R1S, R1T, and R2 SUV. But the company's future doesn't rest solely on vehicle manufacturing. Instead, Rivian has positioned itself as an artificial intelligence (AI) stock. The company expects to ramp up its AI investments so significantly that management quietly dropped its 2027 profit guidance earlier this year.
Image source: Rivian.
Overall, I'm a big fan of Rivian pushing out its profitability goals in order to invest more aggressively in AI technologies. In the future, EVs will rely heavily on self-driving software. A vehicle's ability to drive itself will fuel not only consumer purchases but also commercial opportunities such as robotaxis. If an EV maker wants to sell into both markets, it will need to have fully self-driving vehicles. AI is these companies' best chance of achieving full autonomy and, in the future, selling cars.
The catch is that Rivian has been forced to do something painful, something Lucid investors understand all too well.
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Rivian must copy this painful financing option that Lucid has come to rely on Earlier this month, Rivian revealed that it would be selling 75 million additional shares at $15.50 apiece -- a slight discount to the prevailing market price. Underwriters have the option to buy another 11.25 million shares, which would increase Rivian's total outstanding shares by around 6%.
Rivian isn't a total stranger to share dilution. Its total shares outstanding have increased by more than 30% over the past three years to help make up for an unprofitable core business. But the company has also been able to raise non-dilutive financing, including its multibillion-dollar partnership with Volkswagen.
Lucid investors haven't been as fortunate. The company's total outstanding share count has risen far faster than Rivian's in recent years, driven by high capital expenditures alongside an even more unprofitable core business.
While painful over the short term, Rivian's share sale will raise around $1.2 billion in new capital. That could be enough to scale R2 production enough to reach sustainable profitability over the next handful of years. The company has already posted a positive gross margin in recent quarters.
If R2 production scales as expected, that could narrow losses for the company significantly, enabling Rivian to maintain its higher investment into AI. And given AI is a critical long-term growth driver, Rivian's latest share dilution is a painful but reasonable mechanism for maximizing shareholder value over the long term.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.65 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +18.8%.
Revenues are expected to be $1.58 billion, up 21.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.21% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Rivian Automotive?For Rivian Automotive, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -4.29%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Rivian Automotive will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Rivian Automotive would post a loss of$0.6 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.55, delivering a surprise of +8.33%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Rivian Automotive doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player's Expected ResultsFord Motor Company (F - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.33 for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of -10.8%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $45.72 billion, down 2.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for Ford Motor has been revised 5.3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -5.58%.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Ford Motor will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) are down 10% Thursday morning to $336.28 after the electric-vehicle maker’s Q2 2026 earnings landed with a sharp profit miss. Fellow EV names are lower too, with Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock down 1% to $16.93 and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock down 2% to $6.65.
The broader tape is soft as well, with the NASDAQ 100 lower by 1.39%. Tesla stock had already been under pressure, sitting down 17% year to date (YTD) heading into the print.
Profit Miss Overshadows Record Deliveries Tesla reported adjusted EPS of $0.33, missing the $0.50 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.2 billion came up short of the $4 billion expected. Revenue of $28.24 billion was a beat for Tesla, rising 26% year over year (YoY) on a record Q2 delivery haul of 480,126 vehicles.
Tesla’s operating income collapsed 57% YoY to $398 million, with the operating margin compressing to 1%. Free cash flow swung to negative $1.09 billion, a burn, but this was meaningfully better than the negative $3.64 billion the Street had feared.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk called 2026 a “massive capex year,” and CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed the full-year capital budget at “more than $25 billion.” Tesla’s Robotaxi service now spans seven metro areas, and active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, up 56%.
Analysts Trim Targets but Hold Ratings Wall Street responded with a coordinated target trim while ratings held, a “show-me” stance around Tesla’s AI and robotics pivot. Canaccord lowered its Tesla stock price target to $410 from $450 with a Buy, citing stagnant margins and breakthrough promises on hard-to-model timelines.
Cantor Fitzgerald trimmed its TSLA stock price target to $485 from $510 and kept Overweight, framing FY2026 as transformational for autonomy, AI, robotics, and chips. JPMorgan cut its Tesla stock target to $445 from $475, staying Neutral, and flagged softer gross margins from lower regulatory credits, rising interest-rate subvention costs, and warranty headwinds.
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Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley moved its Tesla stock price target to $400 from $417, holding Equal Weight, and described the accelerating capex as “a necessary investment” to secure autonomy and robotics leadership, even as it pushes Tesla’s free cash flow further negative.
EV Peers and the DRIV ETF Feel the Ripple Rivian shares and Lucid shares are slipping in mild sympathy on Tesla contagion rather than company-specific news. The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is under pressure given Tesla’s outsized weight; the fund is a narrow, volatile thematic vehicle with meaningful concentration in a handful of EV and autonomy names.
On merger chatter, Musk stated that there is “overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) but said, “[W]e can’t talk about combining companies on an earnings call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.” Traders can treat that as speculation, not a plan.
What to Watch Now Tesla remains a high-expectations, richly valued name whose bull case rests on autonomy, robotaxi, and Optimus milestones that are hard to time. Cox Automotive sees U.S. EV sales down 20% after the federal EV tax credit expired, a headwind partially offset by strong Europe demand.
Investors can watch for whether Tesla stock holds $340 into the close and whether follow-on analyst notes shift the tone through the session. Given the volatility around this AI and robotics transition, investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest as the narrative moves from deliveries to autonomy execution.
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In markets, the bigger they arrive, the harder they fall. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) has already shed a staggering amount of paper wealth since its post-IPO peak, with Hedgeye estimating a market value decay of roughly $47 billion per day from the top, almost 22 times the fate of Rivian Auto (Nasdaq: RIVN). Yet the setup for August looks even uglier than the stock action we just lived through.
The stock closed at $115.26 on July 22, down about 25% in a single month and 6.7% on the most recent trading day alone. I think that’s just the beginning.
The Bull Case I Understand but Reject The bull case is not short on ammunition. SpaceX launches more than 80% of the world’s payload mass to orbit each year, operates roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries, and now carries another AI-adjacent dimension with xAI pulled deeper into the broader Musk ecosystem.
Why I’m Betting Against SPCX The lockup cliff is the real story. Management set August 4 as its first earnings report, which would trigger a major lockup expiration. Reddit’s most-upvoted SPCX thread this month, with 1,309 upvotes, put the concern bluntly: “SPCX first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float.” Every insider on the roster, from Elon Musk to SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell to CFO Bret Johnsen, last transacted on June 11, 2026. That puts a major supply event directly in front of the stock.
Options traders are already positioned. The November expiration carries a put/call ratio of 3.03, and March 2027 sits at an eye-watering 16.13. Polymarket assigned a 96.5% probability to SPCX finishing down on July 22, which it did, and only a 20% chance of closing above $130 by month-end.
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The moat narrative is taking water. Reddit sentiment collapsed to a Very Bearish score of 12 after competition heated up. Japan landed a reusable rocket prototype, with one widely shared post lamenting: “Had SPCX in my watchlist at $180 with competition is years away as the core thesis then Japan landed a rocket this weekend.”
Catalysts and the Bottom Line Investors will be watching August 4, but the print may not be the main event. Earnings could matter less than the wave of newly tradable shares hitting a market that just absorbed a 9.22% weekly drop on a constrained float. I would reconsider only if insiders publicly extend the lockup or if Starship delivers a decisive commercial breakthrough before the earnings report.
My conviction is high. The combination of incoming supply, bearish options skew, and eroding sentiment does not set up well for a near-term bounce. Legacy aerospace and satellite operators offer cleaner floats and lower expectations by comparison.
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As far as young U.S. electric vehicle (EV) makers go, Lucid Group (LCID -7.72%) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN -3.27%) have managed to separate themselves from the smaller niche players, or worse, the few that have already closed their doors. One could easily argue that Rivian has even separated itself from Lucid in a positive manner.
But there's another stock, Nio (NIO -2.50%), that often flies under the radar because it was born in China, and in one crucial way it has been crushing Lucid and Rivian recently.
The bumpy road It's not an easy life for young EV automakers, which face costly technology such as batteries, largely unprofitable early-stage scaling, and a volatile EV industry that has been impacted by changes in demand due to untimely policy, reduced tax incentives, and even unexpected tariffs.
Despite all of those headwinds, Rivian has taken a large step forward to separate itself in a positive way from rival Lucid in its ability to generate gross profits. These young EV makers being able to generate gross profits, and more importantly, sustainable gross profitability, is a crucial step to proving to investors they can become a viable long-term investment that can one day reward investors.
LCID Gross Profit (Quarterly) data by YCharts
As you can see, despite starting from a worse position than its rival, Rivian has made consistent progress on gross profitability since the beginning of 2023, while Lucid's gross profitability has languished due to multiple speed bumps.
There are two primary driving forces for Rivian's consistent improvement. One is drastically improved unit economics as the young EV maker has intensely reduced costs, expensive wiring, and the number of parts and sensors, among many other changes. That's expected to continue with the R2, which is targeting about half the costs of the R1.
Image source: Rivian.
A second driving force was Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen, which gave the company the ability to draw non-dilutive capital, split development costs, and sell/license its valuable software stack to its German partner, which has essentially given up on its in-house software division. These software margins are much higher than those for Rivian's hardware manufacturing and helped offset early-stage, less-profitable scaling.
Rivian's improvement has been impressive and consistent, but many investors overlook another EV stock that has taken a leap ahead of even Rivian.
Nio has witnessed an uptick in its gross profitability, driven by multiple factors, including vehicle deliveries nearly doubling in the first quarter compared to the prior year. Investors have Nio sub-brands Onvo and Firefly to thank for this, as they continue to gain traction.
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Going hand in hand with Nio's rise in deliveries are its vehicle and gross margins. During the first quarter, Nio's gross profit topped $700 million, representing a staggering 428.4% increase from the prior year. First-quarter gross margin checked in at 19%, compared to 7.6% during the prior year. Vehicle margin also made a similar jump to 18.8% during the first quarter, compared to 10.2% a year ago.
LCID Gross Profit (Quarterly) data by YCharts
What it all means While Rivian has made substantial improvements to boost its gross profitability, it still lacks the growing scale and sales volume that Nio is enjoying. That's the next step for Rivian, and a step it is expected to take with the R2 opening the door to mass-market consumers.
It's natural for U.S.-based retail investors to gravitate toward companies that were founded and operate in the U.S. market, and that's why Rivian and Lucid are more well known than Nio. However, amid the many young EV companies that are struggling globally through many different headwinds and regional speed bumps, Nio has consistently impressed with its ability to navigate a challenging domestic market and a brutal price war, expand its sales and scale, and improve margins and gross profitability.
Rivian has achieved some impressive feats over the past year or two, but when it comes to gross profitability and proving to investors it can be a viable long-term investment, Nio is crushing it -- and investors should take note.
About five years ago, there was a mini gold rush in the electric vehicle (EV) industry. It was due to growing infrastructure support and a flood of public and private funding from investors hoping to get their hands on what might be the next Tesla.
This gold rush ended poorly for many involved: from the more well-known Fisker Automotive, which was supposed to rival Tesla, to the lesser-known companies such as Canoo and Lordstown Motors. Even more capable companies, such as Lucid Group (LCID -1.50%), will almost certainly face more funding questions and capital raises within 12 to 18 months.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN -1.80%), however, appears to be gaining real traction; here are three reasons to believe in it long-term.
Shareholder dilution While Lucid and Rivian are similar in many ways, one factor that has separated the two is shareholder dilution. Unlike Lucid, Rivian has been able to protect its shareholders from more severe shareholder dilution due to capital discipline and its strategic joint ventures, such as with Volkswagen.
It also helps to have a little luck on your side. Rivian executed one of the largest initial public offerings in U.S. history by raising roughly $13.7 billion in gross proceeds, which gave the young EV maker a long capital runway. In contrast, Lucid entered the public markets through a SPAC merger that had a lighter cash balance to help pave the way forward.
Another example of how the two differ is that Lucid has relied heavily on Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which now owns a controlling stake in the company. While Lucid has repeatedly issued new equity that dilutes existing shareholders, Rivian largely took a different route by leveraging its internal software and electrical stack to ink a $5.8 billion deal with Volkswagen that has helped generate non-dilutive licensing and convertible loans.
RIVN Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts
You can see in the graph above that Lucid was expanding its shares outstanding much more, until last year when the EV maker executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, which reduced its share count to proportionately increase its share price, enabling it to remain listed on the Nasdaq. That's not a great situation to be in. Make no mistake, when considering either of these EV stocks long-term, Rivian is certainly more enticing, even considering only its lesser shareholder dilution.
R2 is a crucial pivot To say that Rivian's R2 is a crucial pivot point for the business would be an understatement. The R2 marks Rivian's transition from luxury-niche EVs to mass-market production and scale. The young EV maker might not even get enough credit for the efforts it has taken to improve unit economics, which have helped power the company to its first full-year gross profit.
Rivian is taking what it's learned from that process and applying it to the R2. And it's expecting to reduce the manufacturing cost per vehicle by 50% compared to even previous improvements on the R1. Rivian's goal was to aim for nearly $7,500 in gross profit per vehicle; here are a couple of unique examples of how it can drive toward that target:
Battery and drive units: The new "Maximus" drive unit contains 41% to 43% fewer parts than the previous Enduro system. Electronics and harnessing: Rivian cut expensive high-voltage cabling down by a significant 70% and simplified its computing architecture by removing 2.3 miles of wiring, cutting down connectors by 60%, and reducing weight by 40 lbs. Rivian even adjusted the R2 to a unibody structure, which reduced costs by 44% and weight by 37% compared to the R1 body-on-frame style.
Image source: Rivian.
Combine those examples, and many more, with growing scale as the lower price tag enables a mainstream consumer to purchase the R2, and it should have investors feeling optimistic that Rivian can one day be a self-funding and profitable company. Though it still has a long way to go.
High-margin potential Circling back to Rivian's lucrative joint venture with Volkswagen, it's important for investors to understand the potential of this business. Typically, legacy global automakers like Volkswagen buy parts from suppliers and write their own coding, but the deal with Rivian implies that Volkswagen has admitted its deficiencies in doing so and essentially gave up on its in-house software division.
Volkswagen isn't just buying Rivian motors or interior infotainment screens, either; Rivian is essentially selling its German joint venture partner its vehicle nervous system, operating system, and zonal architecture. This has given Rivian the potential to transform from a pure hardware manufacturer into a business that includes high-margin software and intellectual property licenses.
Thanks in large part to Volkswagen's partnership, Rivian's software segment operates at roughly 37% gross margin, which has become a crucial way to offset early-stage scaling and expenses.
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What it all means Rivian still has a long road ahead to reward long-term shareholders, but these three reasons should give investors the belief that it can achieve that vision. Rivian has separated itself from rivals such as Lucid with capital discipline and the avoidance of severe shareholder dilution, tapped into high-margin software sales and cost-sharing with partnerships, and made significant progress on improving R2 unit economics ahead of the scale it hopes to soon build.
Rivian's road will still be tough, but it certainly has some unique attributes that separate it from many rivals.
In the latest close session, Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) was down 1.23% at $17.24. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.19%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.59%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.05%.
Heading into today, shares of the a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars had gained 5.66% over the past month, outpacing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 2.3% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.55%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Rivian Automotive in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on July 30, 2026. The company is expected to report EPS of -$0.65, up 18.75% from the prior-year quarter. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $1.58 billion, up 21.24% from the year-ago period.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$2.37 per share and a revenue of $7.16 billion, indicating changes of +3.27% and +32.97%, respectively, from the former year.
Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Rivian Automotive. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.02% upward. Rivian Automotive is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 163, positioning it in the bottom 34% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN +2.14%) captured great investor interest during its 2021 initial public offering (IPO), when the stock surged to over $170 per share, while its market capitalization reached $150 billion amid enthusiasm for electric vehicles (EVs). However, the stock has fallen sharply in recent years and remains 90% off its all-time high.
Despite the drastic decline, the company has made strides with its EV lineup and boasts a technology stack that sets it apart. With the stock below $20, is now the time to invest $5,000 (or another amount) in the beaten-down EV stock? Let's dive into the company's progress to find out.
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Rivian is ramping up production despite a tough environment for EV makers Rivian takes a vertically integrated approach to its EV platform, focusing on in-house manufacturing, technology, and software development. This approach gives it total control over its EV ecosystem but also requires massive up-front investment. At the end of the first quarter, Rivian's accumulated deficit exceeded $27 billion, reflecting the cumulative net losses the company has recorded since its inception in 2009.
While the company remains unprofitable, it has made progress in expanding its manufacturing capabilities. In the second quarter, the company produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194, exceeding the high end of its guidance of 11,000 vehicles. The strong performance prompted management to raise its full-year delivery guidance from 64,500 at the midpoint to 67,500.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The company is seeing solid performance despite a difficult backdrop for EV makers. Part of this is thanks to the rollout of the Rivian R2, its lower-cost production vehicle, starting at $45,000. This is part of Rivian's efforts to achieve mass-market scale, and the company is expanding its manufacturing in the long term with its multibillion-dollar Georgia facility, aiming to produce hundreds of thousands of units annually when it opens in 2028.
In addition, Rivian formed a joint venture with Volkswagen in November 2024, which includes $5.8 billion in investments from the German automaker to be made in tranches for its in-house-developed software and zonal architecture. The Rivian R2 is the first vehicle built on an optimized version of this architecture, and Volkswagen expects to start using this technology stack in its vehicles as soon as next year.
Rivian is making huge capital investments Rivian is making progress, growing production and deliveries, but the company continues to burn through cash. In the first quarter, the company's loss from operations topped $655 million, an improvement from last year, when it topped $881 million. To continue to fund its expansion, Rivian raised $1.2 billion by selling 75 million shares of stock this month.
Looking ahead, Rivian still needs to expand over the next couple of years as it builds out its megafactory in Georgia and has pushed back its goal for achieving positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2027. For these reasons, it may pay off to be patient and see how the company navigates this capital-intensive phase of its business before building a sizable position in the stock.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars have returned +3.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change. The Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, to which Rivian Automotive belongs, has lost 2.8% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Rivian Automotive is expected to post a loss of $0.65 per share, indicating a change of +18.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.2% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of -$2.37 points to a change of +3.3% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +1%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.68 indicates a change of +29.2% from what Rivian Automotive is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -1.3%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Rivian Automotive is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Rivian Automotive, the consensus sales estimate of $1.58 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +21.2%. The $7.16 billion and $11.32 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +33% and +58.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryRivian Automotive reported revenues of $1.38 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.4%. EPS of -$0.55 for the same period compares with -$0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.04%. The EPS surprise was +8.33%.
Over the last four quarters, Rivian Automotive surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Rivian Automotive is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Rivian Automotive. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Shares of the electric automaker Rivian (RIVN 3.82%) were volatile in the first half of this year, falling 11.9%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite the drop, there was some good news for the company, including the launch of its new R2 vehicle and management raising its 2026 delivery estimates.
Here's what went wrong (and right) in the first half of 2026 and what investors can expect from Rivian for the rest of the year.
Image source: Rivian Automotive.
Higher spending, more losses, and a new vehicle launch Rivian started the year on the wrong foot, with its shares falling 25% in January after two analysts downgraded the stock with a sell rating. Analysts and investors alike have become more pessimistic about the EV industry, and their intuitions aren't wrong.
EV sales in the U.S. declined 28% in the first quarter of 2026. Rising costs of electric vehicles and the expiration of EV tax credits have led to lower demand. That's resulting in a difficult selling environment for many EV companies, not just Rivian.
Rivian shareholders were also unimpressed when the company released its Q1 2026 results at the end of April. Concerns about rising expenses and widening losses fueled a sell-off in early May. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss in the first quarter of $427 million, worse than its $329 million loss in the year-ago quarter. Capital expenditures also rose 10% to $372 million.
Rivian's increased spending and ongoing losses resulted in the company eliminating its previous goal of being EBITDA positive in 2027 (on an adjusted basis). Management said the shift was "due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap."
But it wasn't all bad news in the first half of the year. Rivian's management released details for its new R2 SUV in March, with an initial Performance trim priced just under $58,000 and a Standard trim version expected to launch for around $45,000 in late 2027.
Investors received additional good news when management said second-quarter deliveries of 12,194 topped the company's guidance of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles. Management then raised its 2026 delivery guidance to between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles, up from its previous range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles.
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More volatility is likely ahead in 2026 The second-half of 2026 is already well underway, and it's started pretty rough for Rivian shareholders. I know, because I'm one of them.
The company's shares tumbled in early July after Rivian announced a capital raise of about $1.2 billion, through the sale of an additional 75 million shares. The stock plunged 18% after the announcement.
Rivian's shares will likely remain volatile this year, with the company's increased spending and difficult EV environment mixing with potentially good news from its R2 sales. If you're holding your Rivian shares, it's probably best to settle in for a long (and potentially bumpy) ride for the rest of the year.
Investors in electric vehicle (EV) companies have had a rough year, and two of the sector's marquee names particularly show it. Tesla (TSLA 0.44%) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.82%) are each down roughly 12% so far in 2026.
But for interested investors wondering which one offers the better setup for the back half of the year, the honest answer has less to do with the price charts and more to do with what each company is actually building right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tesla's shift Tesla has somewhat shifted its business model from being just a carmaker to something closer to an autonomy company. Its biggest push this year is its robotaxi service, and that is no longer a slide-deck promise. Tesla has begun to offer driverless rides in several U.S. cities, including Austin and Dallas, and it plans to expand into more markets and begin building its purpose-made Cybercab. If self-driving works at scale, it could turn Tesla's existing fleet and factories into a services business with far higher margins than selling cars.
That is the bull case, and it is a big one. The catch is that Tesla has been promising to deliver full autonomy "soon" for years, and has repeatedly missed its own deadlines, so a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. The stock also carries a rich valuation that has a lot of assumed future success already baked in. Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk's public and political distractions remain a wild card that can move the shares on any given day.
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What Rivian is doing Rivian's narrative for 2026 is far more concrete, and it revolves around one vehicle: the R2. This smaller SUV, priced around $45,000, is the company's bet to move from a niche maker of pricey trucks into the mass market, and production is ramping this year. Rivian expects the R2 to drive a big jump in deliveries, having already raised its full-year delivery target after beating its own quarterly guidance.
Just as important, Rivian is not going it alone. Its joint venture with Volkswagen is worth up to $5.8 billion, with cash distributions to the EV maker to be unlocked as the company hits engineering milestones. That partnership does two valuable things: It provides Rivian with funds it can use for growth (sparing it from relying solely on the cash it has already raised), and it gives its software and electrical technology a seal of approval from one of the largest automakers on earth. For a young company, that kind of endorsement matters.
The risk for investors is straightforward. Rivian is not consistently profitable, and there's no knowing yet how smoothly the R2 ramp-up will go. Any production stumbles or demand shortfalls would hit the stock hard.
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Both stocks are down by similar percentages, but they are not the same kind of bet. Tesla is the larger, profitable, higher-quality business, and has enormous long-term optionality in autonomy. It's the safer place to park money if you want scale and staying power. Rivian is the higher-risk, higher-potential-reward play, and for the second half of 2026 specifically, I lean toward it.
The reason is timing. Rivian has a clear, near-term catalyst in the R2 launch, a deep-pocketed partner in Volkswagen, and a beaten-down price that leaves more room for the market to rerate its valuation upward if it executes well. Tesla's biggest potential catalyst -- a widespread robotaxi-powered rideshare service -- is real, but it's much harder to pin a date on when that business might reach meaningful scale. In addition, there's less slack in Tesla's valuation to absorb any potential disappointments.
If you want the sturdier, long-term holding, Tesla remains the blue chip of the EV world, and its autonomy ambitions give it a ceiling few companies can match. But for the second half of 2026, Rivian's concrete product catalyst and cheaper starting point make it the more compelling buy for investors who can stomach the volatility. Neither is a sure thing, so size any position accordingly, and let the R2 ramp and the robotaxi rollout, rather than the daily headlines, tell you whether each thesis is playing out.
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade, has been closed since Feb. 28. That closure drove up crude oil prices and lifted many oil stocks, but squeezed shares of companies that relied on lower fuel costs.
However, several electric vehicle (EV) stocks have risen since the Strait's closure. Let's see why that happened, and which EV stocks will benefit the most from higher oil prices.
Image source: Getty Images.
Which EV stocks have performed well since Feb. 28? Higher oil prices can make it more expensive to produce and transport EVs, but they also make them more appealing to consumers who want to escape oil's cyclical swings. That's why the global EV market could grow at a 10% CAGR from 2026 to 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights, and why several top EV stocks are still promising long-term investments.
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One of those top performers was Rivian (RIVN +1.71%), which has risen 16% since Feb. 28. That rally was fueled by the launch of its R2 SUV, which costs significantly less than its R1T pickup and R1S SUV. The R2 also costs less to manufacture than its predecessors, so its increased sales should actually boost its gross margin rather than compress it.
Rivian expects the R2's launch to boost its annual deliveries from 42,247 vehicles in 2025 to 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026. Analysts expect its revenue to triple from 2025 to 2028 as it narrows its net losses. That's an impressive outlook for a stock that trades at less than four times this year's sales. Therefore, it could be revalued as a growth play over the next few years.
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Another resilient EV stock was Nio (NIO +0.80%). The Chinese EV maker's stock has risen about 4% since Feb. 28, and it still looks like a screaming bargain at less than one times this year's sales. Nio stands out in the EV market because its vehicles use swappable batteries that can be quickly swapped out, offering a faster alternative to charging at its own battery-swapping stations. It also sells cheaper SUVs and compact cars via its ONVO and Firefly sub-brands.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Nio's revenue to roughly double. They also expect it to finally turn profitable in 2027 as it divests its lower-margin businesses, grows Nio's share of the higher-margin premium sedan market, and scales its cheaper ONVO and Firefly sub-brands.
Should you buy either of these EV stocks today? Rivian and Nio are still speculative stocks, but both look undervalued and well-positioned to profit from the EV market's long-term expansion. They're well-insulated from higher oil prices, and they'll keep growing as more consumers ditch their gas-powered vehicles.
July 7 was a rough day for Rivian Automotive (RIVN +3.03%) shareholders. The upstart electric vehicle (EV) company saw its stock plunge 18.1%, its largest single-day decline in almost two years. Rivian had announced only days earlier that it topped its second-quarter guidance with 12,194 deliveries, and raised its full-year delivery outlook from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles.
The culprit? A new common-stock offering that underlines the reality that Rivian is still losing a ton of money and needs substantial additional capital to continue growing. It can be tempting to buy Rivian stock on this dramatic decline. Here's why that's probably not a good idea in this case.
This sell-off was about more than the share dilution Rivian sold 75 million new shares at $15.50 per share, raising approximately $1.2 billion in gross proceeds. The company also granted the underwriters an option to purchase an additional 11.25 million shares of common stock. The funds are for general corporate purposes and equity contributions for a loan arrangement with the U.S. Department of Energy.
Image source: Rivian.
Beyond the share dilution the new shares will cause, the offering priced shares at $15.50, well below the open-market price at the time. Rivian and institutional buyers agreeing to the offering at such a deep discount probably doesn't send a great message to the market about how the parties involved view the stock. But most of all, the offering is a harsh reminder of how far Rivian still has to go to remain financially viable. The company has burned over $3 billion in free cash flow over the past four quarters alone.
Buy the dip? No thanks Rivian trades at a valuation that is completely disconnected from most of the automotive industry. The most successful automotive companies broadly trade at under 1 times sales. Rivian trades at 3.8 times sales, even after the stock's sell-off. Although Tesla is an exception, it's hardly fair to compare it with Rivian, since Tesla has Elon Musk and has shifted its business focus to autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, and humanoid robotics.
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The reason why automotive companies trade at such low valuations is the same reason Rivian still needs to raise money. Manufacturing vehicles, whether EVs or regular combustion models, is very capital-intensive. Factories are expensive to build, and they need to operate at nearly full capacity to produce vehicles profitably.
If Rivian continues to sell more vehicles, its margins should improve as volumes rise. Rivian's just not there yet. It's probably wise to stay on the sidelines until Rivian's valuation drops closer to that of other automotive stocks or the company grows enough that it no longer needs additional funding.
• Rivian Automotive stock is charging ahead with explosive momentum. Why is RIVN stock surging?
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained Rivian with an Underweight rating and raised the price target from $12 to $13.
On July 9, UBS analyst Joseph Spak reiterated Rivian with a Neutral and raised the price target from $16 to $17. On July 8, BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello maintained Rivian with an Outperform and raised the price target from $22 to $24.
Rivian outperformed several legacy automakers in the second quarter as its deliveries beat internal guidance and the company raised its full-year outlook.
Rivian Beats Its Own TargetRivian produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 units in the second quarter of 2026, topping its internal delivery guidance of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles. The company benefited from steady commercial van demand, sequential growth in its R1 platform and the rollout of R2 deliveries.
Rivian Stands Out Against RivalsRivian also raised its full-year 2026 delivery outlook to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, signaling confidence in demand through the rest of the year.
Technical AnalysisRivian is trading above all its major moving averages, which keeps the intermediate trend pointed up: it’s 8.3% above the 20-day SMA ($16.78) and about 14%–15% above the 50-day ($15.81), 100-day ($15.76), and 200-day ($15.91) SMAs. That said, the longer-term backdrop still carries some baggage because the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA after the death cross in May.
Earnings OutlookLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 30 (confirmed) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: Loss of 79 cents (Up from a loss of 97 cents year-over-year) Revenue Estimate: $1.44 billion (Up from $1.30 billion YoY) Top ETF ExposureSignificance: Because Rivian carries meaningful weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.
RIVN Price ActionRIVN Stock Price Activity: Rivian Automotive shares were up 2.63% at $17.96 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Currently trading for around $18 per share, Rivian Automotive (RIVN +1.21%) has fallen by 82.5% since its 2021 initial public offering (IPO).
Most longtime Rivian investors remain underwater, but new investors could profit following the recent launch of the EV maker's lower-priced R2 line. That said, while the R2 may revive growth, it may not move the needle for the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
How the R2 could get Rivian out of its slump When Rivian first went public, investors were willing to pay high premiums for would-be "Tesla killers" that could challenge the EV market leader. However, as results clashed with expectations, the prices of Rivian and other electric car stocks cratered.
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More recently, however, Rivian has held fairly steady amid the hype surrounding the launch of the R2 vehicle. Priced much lower than Rivian's initial R1S and R1T models, this new line could represent an inflection point. Recent results and outlook updates support this view.
Big potential, but there's a caveat Last quarter, Rivian reported 12,194 vehicle deliveries, well ahead of prior guidance. A big reason for this was June's launch of the R2 SUV, with a sticker price of $57,990.
In addition, management increased its full-year production guidance, raising the ceiling from 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles. In the years ahead, high growth could persist. Yet while forecasts call for growth to accelerate from 34.2% this year to 61.6% in 2027, they also call for annual losses of $2.61 and $2.28 per share, respectively.
Also, Rivian plans to fund expansion through dilutive share sales, aiming to raise up to $8 billion through 2028. Compared to Rivian's current $25 billion market cap, this level of dilution could really water down gains, even if profitability arrives sooner than expected. Hence, it may be a while before a surge in production growth leads to big gains for Rivian shares.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $17.50, moving +1.1% from the previous trading session. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.38% gain on the day. At the same time, the Dow added 0.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.9%.
Shares of the a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars have appreciated by 3.78% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 2.49%, and the S&P 500's gain of 1.27%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Rivian Automotive in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on July 30, 2026. The company is expected to report EPS of -$0.67, up 16.25% from the prior-year quarter. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $1.55 billion, indicating a 18.73% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of -$2.38 per share and revenue of $7.1 billion, which would represent changes of +2.86% and +31.74%, respectively, from the prior year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Rivian Automotive should also be noted by investors. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.7% increase. As of now, Rivian Automotive holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 66, finds itself in the top 27% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Don't forget to use Zacks.com to keep track of all these stock-moving metrics, and others, in the upcoming trading sessions.
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Magna?The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Magna (MGA - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.59 a share 17 days away from its upcoming earnings release on July 31, 2026.
MGA has an Earnings ESP figure of +4.26%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.59 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Magna is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MGA is one of just a large database of Auto, Tires and Trucks stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on July 30, 2026, Rivian Automotive holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is -$0.61 a share 16 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian Automotive is -$0.67, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +9.16%.
MGA and RIVN's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
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Barclays analyst Dan Levy believes updates about new R2 demand will be important for Rivian stock when the company reports Q2 earnings at the end of July.
Companies like Rivan and Lucid could be exempt from the price caps that bar EVs from qualifying for California's new incentive program. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images California is launching a new incentive program for first-time electric vehicle buyers that gives companies like Rivian and Lucid an edge.
Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill, SB 168, into law on Monday that will give first-time EV customers an instant incentive of $3,500 on a new vehicle and $1,750 toward a used one at the point of sale.
The program, called MyFirstEV, is expected to launch this summer, though the state did not announce an exact start date. A spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which will administer the statewide program, told Business Insider that the agency expects to announce participating automakers next month.
The bill has a price cap for EVs to qualify. New vehicles can't have a manufacturer's suggested retail price above $50,000, while used vehicles can't sell for more than $25,000.
However, the law exempts EV makers headquartered in California that manufacture only zero-emission vehicles, allowing companies like Rivian and Lucid to participate in the incentive program regardless of vehicle prices. Rivian is headquartered in Irvine, while Lucid is based in Newark.
Both companies sell vehicles priced well above the bill's caps. Rivian's R1T truck has a starting price of under $80,000. Lucid primarily sells luxury EVs, with the Air sedan starting at around $71,000.
A Lucid spokesperson told Business Insider that it intends to participate in the statewide program and that Lucid Air and Gravity vehicles will be eligible for California customers.
"We see this as a meaningful opportunity to help make advanced electric vehicles more accessible to California buyers," the spokesperson said, adding that the company "applauds the inclusion of the exemption."
Although Tesla manufactures the Model 3 and Model Y at its Fremont factory and maintains an engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, it would be excluded from the exemption. The company moved its corporate headquarters from California to Austin in 2021.
The CARB spokesperson confirmed that Lucid and Rivian could qualify for the exemption, while Tesla would be subject to the price caps.
Tesla wouldn't be entirely shut out of the incentive program. Lower-priced versions of the Model 3 and Model Y that fall below the $50,000 cap could qualify if the company chooses to participate.
The CA governor's office presented the program as a replacement for the federal EV tax credit program, which the Trump administration rolled back. Under the now-defunct federal program, EV buyers could get up to $7,500 in incentives.
"Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to pollute our air and surrender the clean car industry to China on a silver platter. California is putting its foot on the accelerator," Newsom said in a statement.
Spokespeople for Rivian and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
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Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) both closed the books on Q1 FY2026. Rivian posted $1.38B in revenue and a widening EBITDA loss, while Tesla delivered $22.39B revenue and $941M in GAAP operating income. California just handed Rivian a policy wedge Tesla cannot access, which reframes the comparison entirely.
R2 Ramp Meets Robotaxi Machine Rivian’s quarter was carried by its Software & Services segment, up 49% year over year to $473M on the Volkswagen JV, alongside 10,365 deliveries (+20% YoY). The automotive segment slipped into a $62M gross loss as regulatory credit sales fell $100M. CEO RJ Scaringe framed R2 as the pivot, calling out the $4.5 billion DOE loan for the Georgia plant.
Tesla’s story was margin recovery. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%, FSD active subscriptions jumped 51% YoY to 1.28 million, and Unsupervised Robotaxi went live in Dallas and Houston. Free cash flow reached $1.44B (+117%).
Business Driver Rivian Tesla Main Growth Engine R2 SUV launch, Software & Services FSD subscriptions, AI/robotaxi Q1 FY26 Revenue $1.38B (+11.4%) $22.39B (+15.8%) Cash on Hand $4.83B $44.7B Government Backing $4.5B DOE loan, $1B VW equity None on state rebates California Draws a Line Around Rivian California’s newly minted $135 million first-time EV buyer incentive program was structured with a price-cap loophole that exempts only California-headquartered pure-play EV makers from the standard $50,000 MSRP ceiling. Rivian, based in Irvine, California, qualifies. Tesla, now in Austin, does not on its premium tiers.
The timing lines up with Rivian’s R2 Performance trim (656 hp, 330-mile range) hitting external deliveries in coming weeks. Tesla, meanwhile, absorbs the loss of that specific channel while defending a trailing P/E of 358 and forward P/E of 200.
The Next Test Is R2 Sell Through I will be watching whether R2 external deliveries convert California’s subsidy loophole into real volume, and whether Rivian’s 62,000 to 67,000 delivery guide holds. You should track Tesla’s Cybercab pilot and Optimus install pace, though prediction markets currently price just a 12.5% chance of Optimus release by year end 2026.
Rivian’s Setup Versus Tesla’s Cash Engine The stock is up 25.37% in the past week and 44.76% over one year, and the consensus target sits at $18.50, roughly where shares trade. Skepticism remains: Reddit sentiment on r/stocks skewed very_bearish in 80% of recent observations, and the bankruptcy contract on Polymarket still sits at 8.5%. Tesla offers cash flow durability with a $44.7B cash pile and 21.1% automotive gross margin, while Rivian’s exposure to a state-level subsidy that excludes Tesla represents a distinct policy-driven catalyst tied to R2 external deliveries.
There are several reasons not to buy a Rivan. And the list is growing.
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) has won several awards as one of the best SUVs. But when it comes to the gold standard of quality measurements, that starts to fall apart. In the JD Power U.S. Initial Quality Survey 2026, there are 246 problems per 100 vehicles owned over the first 90 days of ownership. It is one of the brands marked “it does not meet award criteria.” Power decided to publish it nevertheless. And the press that covers cars jumped on the low-quantity numbers. The number was worse than that of any of the brands evaluated. I use J.D. Power when I shop for cars.
The new R2 SUV is supposed to save the company. Rivian says its base price will be $44,990. Recently, it launched the Performance Launch Edition priced at $59,485. The less expensive model will be released later. So, it is hard to evaluate whether it can measure up to what Rivian says it will
In the meantime, I can buy the R1S SUV, which has a base price of $83,990. It has seven seats. And the R1T pickup costs $79,990. Add a few features, and the prices move above $100,000. The sticker shock gets unbelievable.
Rivan doesn’t have many service centers. So, where should they go for service? In Texas, the second most populous state in America, Rivan has four. It has one in Arizona. However, Rivian has a service called its Mobile Service. Rivian Technicians staff it. The company says, “We prioritize the safety of our technicians and owners by limiting repairs to what’s safe in a Mobile Service environment.”
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Rivan has a management problem, based on its results. RJ Scaringe is the founder and CEO. He has voting control of the company. It is not certain whether that was true since he got divorced. In the meantime, he received a $406 million pay package. That is a lot for the CEO of a company that has lost billions of dollars.
One of the things that worries me most is how long Rivian will be around. The company says it has enough cash to stay in business for years. However, in the second quarter, it produced only 12,613 vehicles. In the first quarter, it lost $416 million on revenue of $1.38 billion.
Finally, I usually agree with the view Wall St. has of a company. Rivan’s stock is down 11% this year. The drop since it went public is 87%.
If I’m going to buy an EV SUV, I’d rather get one of the few F-150 Lightnings Ford (NYSE: F) has left. At least I’m sure it can get serviced–for decades.
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When investors are considering young electric vehicle (EV) stocks, Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.53%) and Lucid Group (LCID 4.37%) often pop up. Both Rivian and Lucid have proved capable of developing compelling vehicles, albeit at lofty prices initially, and they have advanced EV technology and software.
More recently, Rivian achieved its first full-year gross profit in 2025, while Lucid has struggled to improve its unit economics, further separating the two in favor of Rivian. That said, Rivian just did something that Lucid investors groan about: raising capital and diluting shareholders. Does this change how investors should view the two?
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History shows the trend A little Investing 101: Shareholder dilution is simply the decrease in a shareholder's existing ownership percentage due to a company issuing new shares of stock for raising capital and employee compensation, among other factors. You can argue that investors are OK with some dilution because in theory, the company now has more capital to pursue growth, which in turn improves its investment potential.
The drawbacks are lower earnings per share and reduced voting power. That's important to remember, because shareholder dilution might have made some Rivian investors cringe recently when it announced a public offering of 75 million shares of common stock, worth roughly $1.5 billion. This added capital comes at a cost, which works out to about 6% dilution.
The good news for Rivian investors is that the young EV maker has been reserved about raising capital and diluting shareholders. That's primarily because of its large initial public offering's cash cushion, and later capital injections from joint ventures such as one with Volkswagen – also a driving force behind Rivian's full-year gross profit – and a $6.6 billion loan facility from the U.S. Department of Energy.
In the graph below, you can better see the longer-term trend between Rivian and Lucid.
RIVN Shares Outstanding (Quarterly); data by YCharts.
The graph above was cut off at the beginning of 2025 because shortly thereafter, Lucid performed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, drastically shrinking its share count and potentially misleading investors who don't account for that (the graph could not).
A different way to look at it is to take Lucid's reported 1.644 billion shares outstanding after its public debut via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. Adjusted for the split, that equates to a current figure of 164.4 million shares, compared to its current total of outstanding shares of about 390.26 million, giving us a total increased share count of around 137%. In comparison, Rivian's lifetime share-count increase sits at about 58%, including the recent July offering.
Is it justified? Simply put, this is dilution. Mathematically speaking, it's simply not good news for existing investors. That said, you can put a public relations spin on it, making this capital raise fairly easy to get behind for investors.
Rivian is entering a capital-intensive stretch as it ramps up production of its recently launched R2 and builds its Atlanta, Georgia, factory. Management broke ground on it late in 2025 and will begin vertical construction this year, with R2 and R3 production expected in 2028.
Management's primary focus is a successful and (crossing fingers) a nearly flawless R2 production ramp up. This capital raise will remove any potential liquidity concerns as the automaker also accelerates investments into research and development for autonomous-driving technology.
Image source: Rivian.
It's also fair to say that Rivian has separated itself in a positive way from Lucid. The young EV maker has built more scale through volume of sales, as well as consistently improved unit economics to help drive gross profits, and it has diluted shareholders far less than one of its primary rivals.
Rivian, especially considering its history of shying away from capital raises, is at a justifiable point in time for a capital raise. As a bonus, the shares had a bit of a rally before executing this, optimizing the value raised.
In May, the electric vehicle (EV) industry in the U.S. experienced its best month (in terms of sales) since EV tax credits expired late last year. Meanwhile, in other regions, particularly in Europe, EV sales recently surged. These data points suggest that EV adoption may continue to grow as people seek alternatives to gas-powered cars, given rising oil prices. And for what it's worth, some analysts predict the market will expand at a good clip well into the next decade. Two of the best stocks to capitalize on this are Tesla (TSLA +0.22%) and Rivian (RIVN 3.53%). But which one should you invest in with $1,000?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Tesla is much more than an EV play Tesla is the global leader in the EV market, a status it briefly lost at the end of 2025 only to regain it in the first quarter of 2026. The company's Model Y has been the world's best-selling car for several years. Further, Tesla recently reported its second-quarter delivery numbers, which were pretty impressive. The company's deliveries during the period totaled 480,126. Not only was that a 25% year-over-year increase, but it also came in well ahead of the consensus analyst estimates.
The stock fell sharply even after Tesla posted this report, perhaps because it was already baked into the share price. Also, investor expectations have shifted. Tesla is no longer just a company that sells EVs. Its investment thesis is increasingly tied to its ambitious robotaxi and humanoid robot projects. That's why it commands such a steep forward price-to-earnings ratio of 178.6.
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Progress with these projects is more likely to jolt the stock. And we could hear some news from Tesla on its humanoid robot initiative -- and perhaps a reveal of Optimus 3 -- toward the end of July. Elsewhere, the company's robotaxi business recently launched in Miami. The company still has a long way to go before this business contributes meaningfully to its financial results, but every new city provides Tesla with more real-world data to train and improve its self-driving system.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to generate decent financial results. In the first quarter, the company's top line grew 16% year over year to $22.4 billion, while its adjusted earnings per share rose 52% to $0.41. Lastly, Tesla is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) to power its robotaxi and humanoid robot projects. Although that may shrink margins in the short run, the investment could pay for itself several times over, provided Tesla's vision materializes.
Can Rivian challenge the market leader? Rivian recently launched the R2, an EV that will compete directly with Tesla's market-leading model. The R2 is a midsize SUV with a much more approachable starting price than Rivian's previous models. By the looks of it, its launch is going fairly well. Rivian recently posted Q2 delivery numbers that blew past analyst expectations. The company delivered 12,194 EVs during the period, exceeding its 9,000-11,000 projections. The company said that the introduction of the R2 helped drive the quarterly beat.
Rivian is also working hard to achieve full self-driving capabilities. The company entered into a deal with Uber Technologies (UBER +0.31%) to deliver up to 50,000 fully autonomous EVs through 2031. Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian as part of this deal.
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Between the R2, which may be a hit among individual consumers, and, potentially, strong corporate demand for its EVs if it can achieve full self-driving capabilities, Rivian may experience solid momentum over the next few years. The company's financial results could improve as well. Rivian isn't profitable yet, but its first-quarter revenue grew 11% year over year to $1.4 billion, while its net loss of $416 million was slightly better than the $541 million loss in the year-ago period.
Lastly, Rivian's margins and profits could benefit as the company completes construction of its new Georgia plant, which could help the EV maker achieve economies of scale.
Put $1,000 into this EV stock Both stocks are fairly risky and should continue experiencing significant volatility. However, in my view, Tesla is the more attractive of the two. Here are four reasons why. First, Tesla is still the EV market leader. It boasts strong brand recognition, along with other advantages, such as a vast network of manufacturing plants that has enabled it to achieve economies of scale. Tesla can afford to cut its prices to counter the competition much more than Rivian can, without hurting its profits as much.
Second, although smaller companies often have more upside potential, that may not be the case here. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid robot projects, if successful, could send the stock soaring over the next decade. Third, Tesla can fund its aggressive ambitions without resorting to dilutive financing. Rivian recently announced a new share offering that will dilute existing shareholders.
Lastly, Rivian is far more dependent on the success of any one of its projects. And if it fails to reach full self-driving capabilities within a few years, for instance, its stock price will likely drop off a cliff. Tesla has more flexibility and room for error. For all those reasons, Tesla is the better option, and investors can grab two of the company's shares with $1,000.
Rivian (RIVN 3.53%) is an electric vehicle start-up, trying to build a car company from scratch. That's a difficult, time-consuming, and expensive task. But Rivian has made material strides, including effectively ramping up its production. That success was on full display in the second quarter, when Rivian beat its internal production projection and upped its full-year production target. Here's why the stock has tumbled despite the good news.
Rivian is in the middle of a major product launch The big story for Rivian today is the launch of its R2 truck, targeted at mass-market customers. Its previous trucks were expensive, high-end products. If the company has any hope of turning a sustainable profit, it needs to materially increase its production numbers so it can spread its costs over more vehicles. If the R2 is a success, Rivian will have a clearer path toward that goal.
Image source: Rivian Automotive.
That said, building cars is a capital-intensive process. Rivian will need a lot of cash to reach a point where it has enough scale to compete with electric vehicle (EV) giants like Tesla (TSLA +0.22%), let alone the other major automakers now building EVs. Rivan's production update was good news, but it has to be juxtaposed against the economic realities of the carmaker's finances.
On the finance front, Rivian just announced that it is raising new capital by selling shares. The company has announced plans to sell 75 million shares. The goal is to raise over $1 billion in cash to fund the company's ongoing growth. The new shares will dilute current shareholders, so it's no surprise Wall Street wasn't particularly pleased with the news.
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Rivan is dealing with more than just dilution There's another little wrinkle with the stock sale, because Rivian is a money-losing start-up, it also had to offer a discount. The transaction price was $15.50 per share, roughly 20% below the stock's price at the time the sale was announced. It isn't unusual for investors to push a stock lower when a big equity sale comes out below the current market price. In fact, it kind of makes sense.
That said, Rivian's stock price has risen since the sell-off. And it is above the $15.50 price level, so investors appear to be banking on this cash being put to good use as the company continues to build its business. The truth is, start-ups often have to tap the capital markets for growth capital. That Rivian was able to get this deal done so easily may actually be a sign that Wall Street is increasingly confident it can become a sustainably profitable carmaker... at some point in the not-too-distant future, anyway.
The elimination of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit was a hard hit for most automakers, but Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.72%) was especially affected. EV demand had already stalled, but without tax incentives, they became a harder sell than gas-powered vehicles.
The state of California is taking action to incentivize car buyers to go green once again. The state has a new $135 million program to help first-time EV buyers through point-of-sale rebates. No tax filing is necessary.
There is a catch that helps Rivian in particular but hurts its competitor, Tesla (TSLA +0.71%). Incentives are available only for automobiles priced at or below $50,000 new and $25,000 used. The credit offers a $3,500 rebate for new vehicles and a $1,750 rebate for used vehicles. This immediately disqualifies most Tesla models, which are most often priced at luxury levels. The new Rivian R2 fleet, designed to be more affordable, starts at around $45,000.
The incentive also waives the price cap entirely if the automaker is headquartered in California. Rivian is based in Irvine, while Tesla relocated to Texas.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
This is great news for Rivian. The R2 fleet is generating significant interest, and state tax incentives could push fence-sitters into a Rivian. California's model could also serve as a template for other states looking to make up for the lost federal benefits.
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Several states offer benefits for EV and hybrid car purchases, but California could start a trend of states increasing tax credits or even matching the previously available federal credit. Any move in this direction would be welcome news for Rivian and other EV manufacturers looking to reignite demand.
Rivian's investors have patiently waited for the stock to rebound after losing over 80% of its value since going public in 2021. While the company's software and services segment is profitable, its automotive division is not. The R2's efforts to appeal to a mass market could benefit from state tax credits. Investors will need to remain patient as legislative efforts to boost EVs take time.
Catie Hogan has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rivian Automotive stock is building positive momentum. What’s driving RIVN shares up? What Is Rivian’s Planned Stock Offering?Rivian said it plans an underwritten public offering of up to 75 million shares, plus a 30-day option for underwriters to buy up to an additional 11.25 million shares, implying gross proceeds of up to about $1.74 billion if priced near the prior $20.14 close. The company said proceeds are for general corporate purposes, including funding certain equity contributions tied to a U.S. Department of Energy loan-related arrangement.
Rivian ended Q1 with about $4.83 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, and the raise is being framed as balance-sheet reinforcement rather than a pivot away from operations. That cash figure is central to how traders are sizing dilution risk versus runway.
RIVN Stock: Key Technical Levels To WatchAt $18.57, the stock is trading 12.1% above its 20-day SMA ($16.64) and 17.4% above its 200-day SMA ($15.88), which keeps the intermediate trend pointed up after the May swing low. The catch is the bigger-picture overlay: the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA (a "death cross" that occurred in May), so longer-term trend followers may still treat rallies as prove-it moves until that relationship repairs.
Momentum is improving: MACD is above its signal line and the histogram is positive, which typically means downside pressure is fading and the latest upswing is gaining traction versus the prior downswing. In plain terms, MACD being above the signal line often signals buyers are starting to control the pace of the move rather than just reacting to bounces.
From a level-to-level trading view, the next upside test is the $21.00 area, while the chart has a clearer "line in the sand" near the mid-$15s where buyers previously defended the tape.
Key Resistance: $21.00 — a nearby round-number area where rebounds can stall Key Support: $15.50 — sits near the longer-term moving-average zone (200-day EMA at $15.59) where buyers have shown up What Is Rivian Automotive’s Business Model?Rivian is a battery electric vehicle automaker selling vehicles in the U.S. and Canada, with a lineup that includes a luxury truck, a full-size SUV, and a delivery van. It also develops electronic control units and related software for autos in a joint venture with Volkswagen, adding a "platform/software" angle beyond just vehicle sales.
The company plans to begin selling a midsize SUV in 2026, and it delivered over 42,000 vehicles in 2025, so funding and production cadence are central to the story. That’s why the proposed equity raise is a double-edged catalyst: it can extend liquidity for growth initiatives, but it also raises dilution concerns that can cap upside if demand for the deal is soft.
RIVN Earnings Preview: July 2026 ExpectationsLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 30, 2026 (confirmed) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: Loss of 79 cents (Up from Loss of 97 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $1.44 Billion (Up from $1.30 Billion YoY) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $20.47. Recent analyst moves include:
UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $17.00) (July 9) BNP Paribas: Outperform (Raises Target to $24.00) (July 8) Jefferies: Hold (Raises Target to $17.00) (July 7) RIVN Stock Price Movement on FridayRIVN Stock Price Activity: Rivian Automotive shares were up 2.70% at $18.61 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Rivian Automotive: Maintaining Steady RevenueRivian Automotive (RIVN +1.88%) primarily generates revenue by designing, engineering, and manufacturing electric pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles for consumers, along with commercial delivery vans.
It initiated customer deliveries of a mid-size vehicle and established a battery storage collaboration, while it reported a net income margin of -30% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
Tesla: Scaling the Core BusinessTesla (TSLA +0.26%) primarily earns revenue by creating and distributing electric vehicles, alongside selling automotive regulatory credits, non-warranty support, and comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions.
While recalling some vehicles over missing labels and partnering on residential energy resources, it reported an EBIT margin of 4% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
Why Revenue Matters for InvestorsRevenue gives retail investors a clear view of the total capital flowing into a corporation before operating costs and taxes are removed from the ledger. This metric helps investors measure a company’s overall size, market footprint, and long-term trajectory.
Quarterly Revenue for Rivian Automotive and TeslaQuarter (Period End)Rivian Automotive RevenueTesla RevenueQ2 2024 (June 2024)$1.2 billion$25.5 billionQ3 2024 (Sept. 2024)$874.0 million$25.2 billionQ4 2024 (Dec. 2024)$1.7 billion$25.7 billionQ1 2025 (March 2025)$1.2 billion$19.3 billionQ2 2025 (June 2025)$1.3 billion$22.5 billionQ3 2025 (Sept. 2025)$1.6 billion$28.1 billionQ4 2025 (Dec. 2025)$1.3 billion$24.9 billionQ1 2026 (March 2026)$1.4 billion$22.4 billionData source: Company filings. Data as of July 7, 2026.
Foolish TakeComparing the revenue trend for these two electric vehicle (EV) giants offers key insights, but isn’t the whole story. Rivian has slowly grown sales from the second quarter of 2024 to now. In Q1, the company’s $1.4 billion represented an excellent 11% year-over-year increase. However, lacking Tesla’s scale, Rivian remains unprofitable with a Q1 operating loss of $655 million.
In that same time, Tesla has been inconsistent in its revenue growth despite possessing a first-mover advantage in the EV market. This demonstrates the rising competitive situation in the industry as many automakers moved into offering their own EVs. Still, Tesla’s Q1 operating income of $941 million was an impressive 136% year-over-year improvement.
Now, Tesla is evolving its business towards autonomous vehicles and robots. This could unlock new revenue growth for the company, while Rivian has turned to partnerships with the likes of Volkswagen to keep its business going. Tesla’s stronger financials, vertically-integrated business model, and exciting future growth strategies keep it well ahead of competitor Rivian as a key player in the EV market.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN +8.76%) saw its shares slide this week after the electric vehicle (EV) producer raised $1.2 billion in gross proceeds through an equity offering. The stock is now down more than 16% year to date as of this writing.
The company sold 75 million shares for $15.50 apiece, while also giving underwriters the option to buy another 11.25 million shares at the offering price. Rivian intends to use some of the proceeds to fund its equity contribution under its loan with the Department of Energy (DOE) to build its new factory in Georgia. The new plant will help it increase its electric vehicle production capacity by about 50% to 300,000 vehicles a year.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
In conjunction with its equity offering, Rivian also announced that it delivered 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, well above its 9,000 to 11,000 forecast. It also raised its full-year delivery guidance to a range of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, up from a prior outlook of 62,000 to 67,000 SUVs. It started delivering its new R2 SUV on June 9, which was late in the quarter.
While the equity offering entails about 6% dilution, assuming the underwriters' option is exercised, it is an important step toward helping the company fund its new factory in Georgia. Meanwhile, it is at one of the most pivotal times in its history with the recent launch of its R2 SUV.
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The R2 has gotten some early rave reviews from automotive publications, and with a considerably lower price tag than its luxury R1 SUV, it brings its vehicles to a much wider audience. Increased unit volumes, which spread fixed costs across its vehicles, combined with better sourcing and other features, should eventually help pave the way to stronger gross margins and profitability.
On top of that, Rivian is looking to leverage its software expertise to enable autonomous driving, which would add another high-margin revenue stream. Its point-to-point, fully supervised self-driving (FSD) technology is expected to arrive by the end of this year and will be akin to Tesla's FSD. Earlier this year, it signed a deal with Uber to deploy 50,000 robotaxis to the ride-share company through 2031.
Rivian remains a speculative investment, but the company has a lot of exciting things going for it, including its new R2 model and its autonomous-driving capabilities. It's also backed by major players like Amazon, Volkswagen, and Uber. As such, taking a small stake on this pullback could be worthwhile.
Rivian (RIVN +8.70%) is capitalizing on increasing EV momentum.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 7, 2026. The video was published on July 9, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Karen Boone, a director at Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN +8.70%), sold 20,000 shares of Class A Common Stock on July 6, 2026, according to an SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value$400,000Shares sold20,000Post-transaction shares (total)225,794Post-transaction shares (directly held)115,794Post-transaction shares (indirectly held)110,000Post-transaction value~$4.6 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($20.00); post-transaction value based on July 6, 2026 market close ($20.14).
Key questionsHow does this transaction align with the director's total equity exposure?
Boone reduced her indirect stake by 15%, which accounted for an 8% reduction in her total interest as reported in the Form 4. Following this sale, she maintains a combined position of about 226,000 shares, split between 116,000 shares held directly and 110,000 shares held through The Boone Family Trust dated August 6, 2015.What regulatory and contractual frameworks governed the timing of this sale?
The transaction was carried out under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on November 24, 2025, providing a structured mechanism for liquidity. Notably, the sale occurred on the same date the director entered into a new 45-day lock-up agreement with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, utilizing an exception for existing trading plans.What is the company's current valuation and business focus?
Based in Irvine, Rivian Automotive specializes in the design and manufacturing of electric vehicles, including consumer pickup trucks and SUVs, and maintains a commercial van platform in partnership with Amazon.com. As of the July 7 market close, the company has a market capitalization of $20.9 billion, with trailing-12-month revenue of $5.5 billion and a net loss of -$3.5 billion.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-07-07)$16.49Market Capitalization$20.9 billionRevenue (TTM)$5.5 billionNet Income (TTM)-$3.5 billionCompany SnapshotRivian designs, engineers, and manufactures premium electric vehicles, including five-passenger electric pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles for consumers, as well as commercial electric delivery vans developed in partnership with Amazon.com.The company operates a direct-to-consumer sales model across both consumer and commercial segments, generating revenue through vehicle sales and related accessories while scaling production capacity to achieve profitability.Rivian targets affluent individual consumers seeking premium electric vehicles and commercial fleet operators, particularly Amazon, which represents a significant customer base for the company's commercial delivery platform.Rivian Automotive is a vertically integrated electric vehicle manufacturer with TTM revenues of $5.5 billion, positioning it as a significant player in the emerging premium EV segment. The company leverages strategic partnerships, particularly with Amazon, to diversify revenue streams across consumer and commercial markets while building manufacturing scale. With 14,861 employees and operations centered in Irvine, California, Rivian is executing a capital-intensive strategy to achieve profitability through volume production and operational efficiency improvements.
What this transaction means for investorsThis sale ultimately looks like a footnote in a much busier week for Rivian. The trade effectively ran on autopilot under a plan Boone adopted back in November, and at $400,000 it leaves her with roughly $4.6 million in stock. The more telling detail is the lock-up: she signed a fresh 45-day agreement with Goldman Sachs the same day, the kind of housekeeping that accompanies a capital raise, and Rivian filed a common stock offering prospectus on July 6, and three days later, the firm said it had raised an estimated $1.32 billion to help support a financing arrangement with the Department of Energy.
Her sale also landed amid some operational momentum. Second-quarter deliveries hit 12,194, well above guidance of 9,000 to 11,000, and management raised its full-year target to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, crediting "robust growth quarter-over-quarter in EDV and R1." The catch is that Rivian still burns cash, guiding to an adjusted EBITDA loss of up to $2.1 billion this year against $4.84 billion in cash plus $1 billion from Volkswagen.
For long-term investors, skip the sale and watch two numbers: the R2 production ramp and quarterly cash burn. The race between them decides whether today's $20.9 billion valuation ends up looking cheap or generous. The firm reports earnings on July 30.
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About the Author
Jonathan Ponciano is a contributing stock market analyst at The Motley Fool. He has nearly a decade of experience as a financial journalist, most recently as an editor and senior reporter at Forbes focused on markets, technology, and entrepreneurship. Jonathan has also written for Investopedia and the Los Angeles Business Journal. He holds a dual B.A. in Business Journalism and Economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and an M.B.A. from Columbia Business School. A North Carolina native now based in New York City, Jonathan has also lived in Mexico City and Los Angeles.
From a technical perspective, Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) is looking like an interesting pick, as it just reached a key level of support. RIVN recently overtook the 20-day moving average, and this suggests a short-term bullish trend.
A well-liked tool among traders, the 20-day simple moving average offers a look back at a stock's price over a 20-day period. This is very beneficial to short-term traders, as it smooths out short-term price trends and gives more trend reversal signals than longer-term moving averages.
Like other SMAs, if a stock's price is moving above the 20-day, the trend is considered positive. When the price falls below the moving average, it can signal a downward trend.
Over the past four weeks, RIVN has gained 12.9%. The company is currently ranked a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), another strong indication the stock could move even higher.
Looking at RIVN's earnings estimate revisions, investors will be even more convinced of the bullish uptrend. There have been 1 revisions higher for the current fiscal year compared to none lower, and the consensus estimate has moved up as well.
Investors should think about putting RIVN on their watchlist given the ultra-important technical indicator and positive move in earnings estimate revisions.
Rivian Automotive Inc. NASDAQ: RIVN likely hoped to complete its recent offering of 75 million Class A shares with as little fanfare as possible, but the market had other plans.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer has spent much of 2026 warning that the stock market’s biggest short-term risk lies in the ever building IPO pipeline. His concern boils down to a simple analysis pulled from a recent social post: “We have to be careful.”
The immediate trigger is SK Hynix’s roughly $28 billion American Depositary Receipts (ADR) upcoming listing on the NASDAQ, which would rank as the No. 2 equity share sale on the planet, second only to SpaceX. Cramer’s broader argument, laid out on Mad Money in April, comes down to liquidity, warning “a bull [market] can also be killed by excess supply” when too much capital is pulled into a handful of mega deals at once.
That framework applied to OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic in the spring. It now applies to a memory-chip supplier central to the AI infrastructure trade.
Why the SK Hynix Deal Is Different SK Hynix is the lead high-bandwidth memory supplier to NVIDIA and the single largest industry peer to Micron in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), an established cash-generative franchise, not a speculative growth bet. A listing near $28 billion demands institutional capital that must come from somewhere, most likely the stocks already levered to the same AI theme, thereby spreading the allocations thin.
The Direct Read-Through to Micron Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is the cleanest US-listed way to own the HBM cycle, and shares are already reacting to the crowded field. Shares closed at $938.38 on July 7, down 10.82% in a single week. Investors and traders ignored fiscal Q3 revenue hitting $41.456 billion, up 345.72% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 and GAAP gross margin of 84.6%.
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, “Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era.” Guidance for Q4 calls for revenue of $50.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $31.00, disclosed in the June 24 8-K press release.
Retail sentiment on Reddit remains bullish despite the drop, with one r/stockmarket thread arguing “This isn’t a memory cycle anymore, and SK Hynix hitting US markets is the next leg”. Institutions appear less sanguine. The Polymarket weekly distribution places the highest probability (0.44) on MU touching $840, well below the Wall Street analyst target of $1,486 across 40 buy ratings.
NVIDIA: The Customer Side of the Trade NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sits on the other side of the HBM equation as SK Hynix’s “largest memory partner,” per Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $81.61 billion, up 85.2% year over year, with Data Center revenue of $75.25 billion. Huang framed the moment as “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” The stock has been range-bound, up 6.4% year to date and down 1% over the past month to below the $200-per-share threshold. A capital event that ties up institutional balance sheets in the memory-chip supplier NVIDIA depends on could compress multiples on the customer as well.
Rivian a Cautionary Tale Cramer’s warning extends past the semiconductor complex. Take EV maker Rivian. Its IPO priced at a valuation the market could not sustain, and the stock has never quite recovered. Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) still trades at $16.09, down 83.63% from its November 2021 debut price of $100.73. Fundamentals remain stretched. Q1 FY2026 showed $1.38 billion revenue, a $416 million GAAP net loss, and adjusted EBITDA of negative $472 million, with operating margin at -63.8% and EBITDA of -$3.03 billion over the past 12 month stretch.
Meanwhile, Reddit sentiment for RIVN is predominantly bearish, with short interest at 150,288,550 shares, or 18.87% of float, and a short interest ratio of 2.76 days to cover, and an active thread on a 75 million share offer drawing 619 upvotes.
Cramer’s point: the bull runs on money. When one deal absorbs enough of it, pressure shows up first in stocks requiring the most future funding. Readers interested in positioning around this dynamic can review The Breakout Buyer’s Rulebook, which addresses timing risks around major listings.
What to Watch Next The ADR pricing window, greenshoe size, and first-week float behavior on the SK Hynix listing will signal immediate impact. If institutional investors sell Micron to fund SK Hynix allocations, the peer read-through will be measurable in days. If NVIDIA holds while the memory complex churns, the customer trade stays intact. If capital-consumptive names like Rivian widen their discount to book, the “risk beyond memory stocks” thesis is playing out in real time.
Everyone wants to buy the dip, until the dip arrives. Case in point: Rivian.
Over the weekend, I wrote an article highlighting the new Rivian R2 — a mid-sized ESUV (electric sports utility vehicle…did I just make up that acronym?) that I believe is poised to upend the sweet spot of the U.S. auto market. Perhaps you read the article, or perhaps you saw one of a couple of videos where I discussed the car, the company and the "Holly Index" - my wife ordered one, one of her colleagues ordered one, even my mother is thinking about ordering one.
You may have heard me say in one of my videos or read in the accompanying article that I discussed the fact that the company would certainly need to raise some capital, as the approximately $9 billion in negative cash flow through FYE2029 exceeds the $4.8 billion in cash the company had on hand at the end of Q1 26.
I even went so far as to say I thought the company should do a secondary offering rather than sell additional debt.
Which is precisely what the company announced Tuesday that they intend to do — sell ~75 million shares to raise capital. Shareholders were apparently surprised and disagreed, as the stock sold off $3.65/share on the news, although it's still up nearly 15% in 8 trading sessions.
Rivian, YTD
The shares have returned almost exactly to the 150-day moving average, popularized by my colleague and fellow CNBC contributor, Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting, and portfolio manager of WRTH - the Worth Charting Options Income ETF.
The 150-day moving average is, not coincidentally, very close to the strike of the puts I recommended selling — the August $16s — which closed today at $1.45/contract (9% of the strike price) and still look like an interesting way to make a moderately bullish play here.
Reminder here. When traders sell puts, they are willing to buy the underlying stock at that put's strike prices in exchange for the collected premium. You can think of put selling as a below market limit order for which you get paid, and because of that, traders often use the strategy to initiate a position in a stock. I sold the august 16 for $0.85, which means my breakeven on expiration is $15.15, sill below where the stock is trading this morning despite the sell-off.
Of course, Rivian has to raise capital — manufacturing cars is a capital-intensive business, and Rivian needs to ramp its capacity materially to prepare for what I believe will be high demand for its mid-market R2 ESUV. Equity is the right way to do it as well — it provides more flexibility than debt will. If anything, I would have thought more than 75 million shares, just 6% of the float, might have been appropriate.
Here's the curious bit: an additional 75 million shares would dilute an existing shareholder's ownership by only 6%, and that dilution would be for a company that, net of the offering, should have another $1 billion+ in cash on the balance sheet - a quarter's worth of needed cash in the bank.
So why were the shares down so much?
The company will have enough cash post-offering to comfortably get into early 2027, by which time investors will be able to access the market's appetite for the R2. Despite this, implied volatility, aka the "price" of options and a measure of investor uncertainty, rose to the 97th percentile looking back on the year.
The only thing surprising about the offering to me was that investors were surprised by it. It was the most obvious step imaginable. Why are investors hitting the stock 16% for a 6% dilution that improves the company's near-term cash position? They appear to be pricing in two more follow-on offerings of comparable size without boosting the company's valuation, despite the benefit of a longer runway that a stronger cash position provides.
Which brings me back to Carter Worth's WRTH option income fund. I reached out to him for comment about Rivian - what does he think about the chart here? Does he believe it will hold the 150dma? Unfortunately, I did not hear back before this article went to print, but maybe I don't need to. His fund, WRTH, is what is called "fully transparent" - meaning the fund publishes its holdings nightly. There are about 100 option positions in the fund overall, but one of them is a put position in Rivian. His portfolio is short 1,000 July 17th expiration $17 strike puts.
If actions speak louder than words, I don't need him to call me back to share his thoughts; his trade reveals them, and they're aligned with mine. Stay the course.
Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.
McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.
His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.
Only a few years ago, much of the automotive industry including Ford Motor Company (F 1.25%) made a sizable gamble that the U.S. consumer would largely skip the hybrid option as the world transitioned from gasoline-powered vehicles to full electric vehicles (EVs). That proved costly and through changes in strategy, cancellation or delays of vehicles, and other special charges, it cost the broader industry tens of billions of dollars.
Despite that rather large speed bump, there are a couple of positive developments for full-line automakers such as Ford and not-so-great news for fully EV-focused companies such as Rivian Automotive (RIVN 0.94%) and Lucid Group (LCID 1.83%).
Image source: Ford Motor Company.
Trends are becoming more clear A few years ago automakers expected a rapid increase in EV sales, similar to trends seen overseas, but growth in the U.S. would prove slower to gain traction than expected and will almost certainly fall well short of the 50% market share initially expected by the end of the decade.
"The key takeaway is that supply and demand are converging, and that's what is driving sustained growth in hybrids," according to Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights for Cox Automotive. "More models, broader participation, and strong consumer pull driven by fuel savings without the range and charging trade-offs that still give some buyers pause."
Now gasoline-powered vehicles are expected to still account for 50% of the U.S. market by the end of 2030, a decline from 73% last year, while hybrid EVs are expected to rise 16 percentage points to 34% of the market over the same time frame, according to estimates from AlixPartners.
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Positive developments Knowing what we know now, Ford investors would have preferred a more balanced strategy between powertrains, but with hybrid demand coming on strong, the full-line automaker will more quickly adapt unlike younger EV makers such as Rivian and Lucid waiting for full EV demand to gain traction in the coming years.
Ford is quickly responding with plans to match evolving consumer demand by offering a hybrid powertrain choice across nearly its full vehicle lineup by the end of 2030. The Detroit automaker is now aiming to drive roughly half of its global sales through hybrid options.
The good news, and the bigger development, is that Ford's profitability with hybrids is much stronger than with its full EVs, which have hindered the automaker's bottom-line by the billions in recent years. The progress that Ford has made after being initially surprised by the strong demand from its F-150 hybrid option, has been impressive. By the middle of 2024, many of Ford's hybrid vehicles were profitable, a fact the company had admitted wasn't true as recently as a year prior.
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Later, Ford CEO Jim Farley went as far to say that F-150 hybrid margins were higher than its gasoline-powered version. That was an unexpected development but a pleasant surprise. That's because Ford's F-Series lineup is responsible for a large chunk of its global revenue, roughly one-third by most estimates, but is estimated to generate a staggering 90% of the company's net profit.
What it all means Sure, this transition from gasoline-powered vehicles to full EVs and the in-between options could have gone much more smoothly and been less costly. That said, it's absolutely a positive development for investors that as hybrids surge and achieve record demand recently, Ford can quickly adapt and push a near full lineup of hybrids within a few short years.
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Furthermore, it's even a bigger development that Ford's hybrid profitability has come so far, so quickly. Hybrid vehicles appear to be here to stay and poised to thrive in the near term. That's not great news for Rivian and Lucid currently, but Ford remains well positioned.
Investors are concerned that this offering will dilute the value of their shares. If they continue to trend lower, the selloff may end around the $12.90 level. This is why Rivian is the Stock of the Day.
As you can see on the chart below, this level was support in October. It was also support in May. If the selloff reaches this level, there is a good chance that it finds support once again.
In the stock market, levels that had previously been support can become support again. This is a common occurrence, and it is because of regretful or remorseful sellers.
Some of the people who sold their shares around $12.90 in October decided that selling was a mistake when the stock rallied. A number of these people wanted to buy their shares back if they could eventually get them for the same price they were sold for.
When Rivian fell back to this important level in May, these remorseful sellers placed buy orders. There were so many of these orders that it formed support at the level again.
After the shares moved higher, a similar dynamic occurred. Many of the people who sold in May now regret doing so because the price is higher. A number of them decided to buy back their shares at the selling price.
If the Rivian sell-off reaches this former support level, they will place buy orders. If there are many of these orders, it could result in support forming at the level again.
Successful traders understand that emotions and sellers’ remorse can create support in the markets. This gives them insight into where a downtrend may end and a new uptrend may form.
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
The company priced 75 million Class A common shares at $15.50 each, extending pressure from Tuesday’s announcement, a significant discount on Monday’s closing price of $20.14.
Rivian Prices $1.16 Billion Stock OfferingRivian expects gross proceeds of about $1.16 billion before underwriting discounts, commissions, and offering expenses.
The company also granted underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to 11.25 million additional shares, which could lift gross proceeds to about $1.34 billion if exercised in full.
The offering is expected to close on July 9, 2026.
Rivian To Use Proceeds For DOE-Linked FundingRivian plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including funding certain equity contributions tied to an amended loan and support agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy.
The company ended the first quarter with about $4.83 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
In a July 6 Form 8-K, Rivian estimated second-quarter revenue of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, up from $1.30 billion a year earlier. It also estimated cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $5.3 billion as of June 30.
Delivery Beat Fails To Offset Dilution ConcernsThe capital raise came shortly after Rivian reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter production and deliveries.
The company produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30, beating its prior delivery outlook of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles.
Rivian also raised its full-year 2026 delivery forecast to 65,000–70,000 vehicles from 62,000–67,000.
However, investors focused on potential dilution from the discounted offering.
RIVN Technical Analysis: Key Support, Resistance And MomentumAt $15.75, the stock trades 3.7% below its 20-day SMA of $16.34, suggesting recent momentum is fading, and the price is slipping into near-term consolidation.
The stock remains slightly above its 50-day and 100-day SMAs, both near $15.64–$15.65, but sits 0.6% below its 200-day SMA of $15.84, making that longer-term average nearby resistance.
RSI is 49.99, a neutral reading indicating range-bound trading rather than a clear directional trend.
The mixed moving-average setup supports that view. The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day, but May’s death cross shows the broader trend still needs repair.
Traders will watch whether the pullback holds above May’s swing low.
Key Resistance: $18.00 — a round-number area that can act as an overhead pivot if rebounds fade Key Support: $14.50 — a nearby floor that sits close enough to the current price to matter if selling accelerates RIVN Price Action: Rivian Automotive shares were down 4.43% at $15.76 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo: Michael Vi / Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rivian Automotive, Inc. (Nasdaq: RIVN) (“Rivian”) today announced the pricing of its previously announced underwritten public offering of 75,000,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $15.50 per share, for total gross proceeds of approximately $1.2 billion, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and offering expenses payable by Rivian. In connection with the offering, Rivian has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to pu.
Shares of Rivian Automotive (RIVN 18.12%) reversed course on Tuesday after the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer announced a sizable capital raise.
Image source: Getty Images.
Deliveries are rising, but so are production costs On Thursday, Rivian announced that it delivered 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, handily exceeding its guidance of 9,000 to 11,000 deliveries. Strong sales of the company's pickup trucks and delivery vans contributed to the outperformance.
The results prompted the automaker to boost its full-year deliveries goal to 65,000 to 70,000, up from a prior forecast of 62,000 to 67,000.
Unsurprisingly, the news drove investors to bid up the EV maker's shares.
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Yesterday, however, Rivian said it would sell 75 million shares of its stock to raise cash. The company also granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase an additional 11.25 million shares.
Based on current prices, the share offering could raise more than $1.4 billion. Rivian plans to use the proceeds to fund its growth initiatives and equity contributions related to a loan from the U.S. Department of Energy.
Disdain for dilution drove investors to sell Rivian's share sale reminded investors that it's still a long way from achieving sustained profitability. And even when the EV upstart performs well, as it did when it raised its full-year vehicle delivery target on July 2, the good news is often followed by stock offerings that can halt and even reverse its share price gains.
That can be frustrating for all but the most patient investors. Many shareholders, in turn, decided to sell today.
Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Shares of the premium electric vehicle company Rivian (RIVN 18.64%) crashed 18% on July 7, after the company announced a common stock offering.
Rivian has launched an offering of 75 million common shares. Underwriters will have the option to purchase an additional 11.25 million shares of Rivian’s common stock over the next 30 days.
Based on Rivian’s closing price of $20.14 per share on July 6, the offering would raise slightly over $1.5 billion. Here’s why the stock is tanking.
Image source: Getty Images.
Raising additional common stock is typically dilutive to shareholders. The more shareholders, the more people who have a claim to Rivian’s earnings.
In a press release announcing the offering, Rivian said it expects to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including funding necessary equity contributions for a loan arrangement with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
In April, Rivian announced that it had restructured a loan with the DOE, reducing it from $6.57 billion to $4.5 billion.
CNBC reported that the initial loan had been negotiated under former President Joe Biden and would be used for two phases of production, totaling 400,000 vehicles.
Under the newly negotiated agreement, there will be one phase of production for up to 300,000 vehicles.
The Trump administration pulled back many incentives for electric vehicles, and the fate of the loan had been unknown until it was renegotiated in April.
In addition to its announcement of the common stock raise, Rivian released preliminary earnings results for the second quarter of 2026.
Rivian expects revenue in the second quarter to be between $1.55 billion and $1.65 billion, ahead of consensus estimates of $1.45 billion.
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The company also expected to have cash and equivalents of $5.3 billion, up from $4.8 billion in the first quarter.
In a research note issued on July 7, HSBC analyst Neil Churchill stated that Rivian “is loss making and cash burning,” according to MarketWatch.
Churchill also noted that Rivian has received equity investments from Uber and Volkswagen.
“The question is whether these equity investments are enough considering the consensus forecasted cash burn and whether [Volkswagen] would participate in the capital raise to maintain its stake/influence,” he wrote.
At the end of the first quarter, Rivian had nearly $6.4 billion of long-term debt, non-current lease liabilities, and other long-term liabilities.
How to think about the stockThe environment for EVs has not been good since Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill eliminated the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Following the Iran war, the outlook seems to have improved because the EV proposition became more compelling amid higher gas prices. Renewables could also become more attractive because they could help make the U.S. less reliant on foreign oil.
But it’s been tough sledding for most EV companies. Rivian lost $3.6 billion in 2025.
The company is planning to release an entry-level SUV that could start at $45,000 per vehicle, a core part of its strategy to eventually achieve profitability.
However, earlier this year, the company had to suspend guidance suggesting it could achieve positive net income in 2027.
While I think renewable energy companies could be a good long-term investment, I still think Rivian faces significant execution risk, especially given its financial situation.
I wouldn’t recommend anything more than a smaller, more speculative position at this time.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $16.49, moving -18.12% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.45%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.25%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 1.16%.
Shares of the a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars have appreciated by 19.6% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5.02%, and the S&P 500's gain of 2.14%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Rivian Automotive in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on July 30, 2026. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of -$0.66, showcasing a 17.5% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $1.44 billion, up 10.34% from the year-ago period.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$2.41 per share and a revenue of $7.02 billion, indicating changes of +1.63% and +30.33%, respectively, from the former year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Rivian Automotive. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. Currently, Rivian Automotive is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 83, this industry ranks in the top 34% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is among the notable Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) laggards today, down 11.1% to trade at $17.96, on track for its worst single-session decline since November 2024. While the EV concern reported revenue and delivery guidance that topped FactSet forecasts, a $75 million share offering is weighing on the equity.
Prior to today, Rivian stock was trading at its highest level since Jan. 9, and had nearly doubled its Aug. 6, 52-week low of $11.57. Now, the shares are back below their year-to-date breakeven level and historically resistant $18 level.
Keep an eye on analyst behavior. Of the 27 brokerages covering Rivian, 11 maintain "buy" or better ratings, while the consensus 12-month price target is a 5% premium to its current perch. Should the stock continue to struggle, analysts may change their tune.
Options traders are responding to the news. In just the first hour of trading, 42,000 puts have changed hands, volume that's four times the average intraday amount. The weekly 7/10 17-strike put is the most popular, where new positions are being bought to open.
Shares of Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) are down 14% in Tuesday morning trading, changing hands at $17 and change after the electric-vehicle maker priced a large secondary equity offering after Monday’s close. The move wipes out most of Rivian stock’s 23% one-month advance heading into the announcement.
The selling has spread across the sector. Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is off 9% at $6, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are down 3% at $408.
The action fully reverses Monday’s EV rally, when Tesla jumped on robotaxi momentum and Rivian and Lucid both closed 7% higher. The sharp reversal underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in the EV group.
Rivian’s 75 Million Share Offering Triggers the Dilution Trade Rivian launched a 75 million share offering of Class A common stock, with underwriters holding a 30-day option for up to 11.25 million additional shares. Off Rivian’s $20 Monday close, the base deal could raise about $1.5 billion, or closer to $1.7 billion with the overallotment.
Rivian said the proceeds will go to general corporate purposes, including equity contributions tied to its U.S. Department of Energy loan supporting the Georgia manufacturing build-out. On 1.34 billion shares outstanding, the deal represents meaningful dilution and explains the sharp drawdown in Rivian stock.
The capital raise arrived alongside encouraging operating data. Rivian preannounced Q2 2026 revenue of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, up from $1.3 billion a year earlier, with a raised full-year delivery outlook of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles.
The bull case is that Rivian is topping off the balance sheet to fund the R2 program and unlock the DOE loan for Georgia. The bear case is straightforward: retail sentiment on Reddit’s r/stocks has stayed bearish across every window since the announcement, with the offering thread hitting 222 upvotes and 69 comments Monday evening.
Lucid Slides on Sector Sympathy There’s no confirmed company-specific catalyst behind Lucid stock’s 9% drop. Lucid shares appear to be trading down in sympathy with Rivian as investors reassess EV capital needs and dilution risk across the group.
Lucid stock is still down 42% year to date (YTD) despite a recent bounce. Composite prediction sentiment on Lucid reads bearish at 32.76, reinforcing the fragile setup.
Tesla Slips Despite RBC Raising Its Price Target Tesla stock is down 3% even after RBC Capital lifted its price target to $500 from $475. Analyst Tom Narayan’s standalone intrinsic value is only $435, with the remainder representing a speculative merger premium tied to unconfirmed media reports of a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).
Within the model, RBC raised its robotaxi valuation, cut its humanoid valuation, and trimmed its energy-storage contribution. Tesla stock’s slide today looks more like a broad tech and EV pullback than a Tesla-specific issue, with news-based sentiment on TSLA stock still reading bullish at a composite score of 62.55.
What to Watch Next Rivian reports its full Q2 2026 results after the close on July 30, and Tesla’s Q2 report is scheduled for July 22. Pricing terms and underwriter allocation for the Rivian deal can also drive intraday volatility once confirmed.
These are volatile names, and a single session doesn’t change the long-term thesis for any of them. Investors weighing exposure may want to keep their position sizing modest until the Rivian offering clears and Q2 earnings recalibrate the sector narrative.
Rivian (RIVN) is experiencing a significant decline following its announcement of a public offering for 75 million shares, with underwriters given the option t
Rivian Automotive Inc RIVN is sliding on Tuesday morning after the electric vehicle (EV) maker announced a sizable public offering of about 75 million shares.
As sudden dilution fears take center stage, RIVN is reversing much of its recent gains from a stellar quarterly delivery report, reminding investors that its expansion plans remain rather expensive.
Rivian stock has been a disappointing investment in 2026 – currently down more than 10% versus the start of this year.
Based on Monday's closing price, Rivian's offering aims to raise roughly $1.5 billion – a number that may go up to $1.7 billion if underwriters exercise their 30-day options for an additional 11.25 million common shares.
Investors are responding negatively to the announcement primarily because it signals about a 6% dilution ahead.
While the infusion of cash strengthens Rivian’s balance sheet, it expands the firm’s total outstanding shares to over 1.43 billion.
For current investors, this means their percentage ownership and future earnings-per-share (EPS) potential are instantly reduced.
To make matters worse, management disclosed the primary reason for this capital raise is to fulfill the mandatory equity contribution required under its recently renegotiated $4.5 billion US Department of Energy (DOE) loan.
RIVN shares are slipping because the market is reading this as a reiteration that the EV maker cannot yet fund its core operational milestones through organic revenue.
The timing of this capital raise is highly tactical, arriving on the heels of impressive “preliminary” Q2 financials.
On Tuesday, the electric vehicles specialist said its second-quarter revenue will come in at $1.6 billion at least, comfortably beating Street estimates set at a much lower $1.5 billion.
Still, buying the dip in Rivian shares today carried significant risks. Analysts are bracing for a loss of 79 cents per share, reinforcing that the company’s margins continue to face immense pressure.
In fact, its gross margin crashed to just 9% earlier this year from a much more encouraging 17% in 2025.
In short, while the operational traction is real, the financial reality shows an automaker still heavily burning through cash to scale up, meaning the stock remains a speculative bet for anyone buying the current pullback.
Ultimately, Rivian’s share sale underscores the unforgiving, capital-intensive nature of the electric vehicle industry.
To successfully transition into a mainstream automotive powerhouse, the company is placing long-term bets on its new production facility in Georgia, which is designed to handle high-volume builds of its next-generation R2 and R3 platforms, alongside delivery vans and crossovers.
As CEO RJ Scaringe recently noted, that factory is the ultimate key to generating the “necessary” volume to achieve sustainable gross margins.
However, with DOE loan disbursements not scheduled to begin until early 2027, Rivian must survive a transitional “holding pattern” for the remainder of 2026.
For long-term visionaries, today’s drop might look like a discounted entry point into a surviving EV company.
But for the broader market, the immediate reality is clear – until Rivian can manufacture vehicles without continually diluting its investor base, RIVN stock will likely face a choppy and volatile ride.
