Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Registration data can be a helpful tool for investors trying to glean more information from automakers' sales trends. It probably isn't explained enough, but vehicle registration data serves as a proxy for vehicle sales. It provides a more inclusive and detailed look at model information, as some automakers don't break out U.S. sales from global numbers, and/or don't report monthly. The catch is that it can lag other sales data by about a month.

With that said, let's take a look at the newest data that highlights Rivian Automotive's (RIVN -1.91%) surge toward the top during a rough overall month, trailing only Tesla (TSLA -0.63%) in August EV registrations.

Image source: Rivian.

Show me the data! There are a lot of key takeaways for investors in the EV registration data, which, for the record, doesn't include hybrids, only full battery electric vehicles (EVs). Scratching the surface of August data, it initially appears to have been a brutal month for EV sales in the U.S., recording a sharp 36% decline compared to the prior year. But remember that is right when car buyers were jumping all over EV purchases before a Sept. 30, 2025, expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.

Going forward, after one more month of skewed year-over-year comparisons, the picture should be much clearer regarding the U.S. EV industry's health.

Rivian, along with Toyota, was a clear bright spot in late-summer registrations. Thanks in part to Rivian launching its highly anticipated R2 in June, the company jumped from No. 10 in U.S. EV registrations a year ago up to No. 2, trailing only Tesla. The good news for Rivian investors is that August was still in the early innings of accelerating production of the R2, and the company added a second production shift late in the third quarter, which won't show up in registration data in full until October's data is collected and released. That means Rivian may not give up its No. 2 spot for some time, especially considering that a third production shift is planned next year.

The good news for Rivian is not all R2-driven Don't get me wrong; Rivian's data was certainly boosted by the addition of R2 registration data, where none existed in the prior year, but it wasn't the only reason for Rivian's surge higher. Rivian's R2 recorded 1,554 registrations in August, a figure that will again be boosted by increased efficiency, additional shifts, and the upcoming launch of lower-priced R2 trims. Remember, Rivian's R2 launch process began by producing and delivering its most expensive, and likely more profitable, models/trims first.

The intriguing part of Rivian's August registration data might actually have come from an often-overlooked aspect of its business: the electric vans it largely produces for retail juggernaut Amazon. Registrations for those mostly Amazon-destined electric vans jumped 87% to 2,165 vehicles compared to the prior year. That helped push Rivian's overall U.S. registrations up 33% in August, despite the R1S dropping 53% as the model ages and more affordable competition continues to hit the road.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$11.83-$0.23 (-1.91%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

Key takeaways Despite Tesla losing some of its stranglehold on the U.S. EV market in recent years, it still has a dominant share, with registrations nearly 10 times those of No. 2 Rivian, recording 48,083 registrations to Rivian's 4,995. Tesla's registrations did drop 14% in August, still far better than the broader EV market's decline, which enabled its share of the EV market to rise to 54.5%.

There was another clear trend in that the few bright spots in August registration data (Rivian, Toyota, Subaru) were driven by launches of new, fresh models. The race is on for automakers to continue not only lowering EV costs and launching additional models -- now that Chinese automakers are cutting the time to develop a new vehicle by about half of the historical time, expect EV makers to try to speed up their processes. That will put a lot of pressure on Rivian, with arguably only one mainstream model until the R3 launches.

That said, if you're a Rivian investor, you walked away from this data -- still early in the R2 production ramp phase -- feeling pretty darn good about ranking No. 2 before the R2 really gains production momentum.

Rivian (RIVN -3.21%) is on the cusp of becoming the next legitimate electric vehicle (EV) investment on the market. There are many things investors don't understand about such a young company, especially about Rivian's $4.5 billion Department of Energy (DoE) loan and what it means -- and what it doesn't mean -- for its future. Let's dig right in.

This doesn't dilute, does it?

RIVN Shares Outstanding (Annual) data by YCharts.

One argument in favor of Rivian as an investment that too many investors overlook is that the young EV maker has done an admirable job avoiding diluting its shareholders. That may not seem important, but as you can see in the graph above, rival Lucid (LCID +7.79%) hasn't been able to tame its need to tap capital markets and has consistently released new shares, making existing shares less valuable for long-term shareholders. (Please note: The late change in Lucid's outstanding shares was due to a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.)

The answer to this question, technically, is no. The DoE loan itself is not dilutive; however, indirectly it is. Borrowing money from the DoE commits Rivian to contributing its own capital toward the end goal, which in this case is the company's second factory being constructed in Georgia. Here's my napkin math example: If the Georgia factory cost $100, the DoE loan -- which should probably be reframed as a financing strategy -- could finance up to $80 of that, while Rivian needs to pony up the remaining $20.

This commitment, and condition, is precisely why Rivian exercised a rare capital raise by issuing over 86 million new shares in July, raising roughly $1.3 billion. That capital raise was diluting, and it was in part to fund the DoE loan conditions.

Image source: Rivian.

Is this loan even helpful? To put it bluntly: yes. Rivian's DoE loan carries the baggage of an interest rate based on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with a 0% credit spread. Let's define that because it doesn't mean 0% interest as if buying a vehicle. Let's use Rivian's $1.25 billion secured green notes that carry a 10% annual interest rate as a benchmark and use more napkin math.

Annual interest on a 10% note the size of Rivian's DoE loan would be about $400 million. While we don't have exact rates, because those aren't defined until Rivian makes a withdrawal on the loan (expected in 2027), it should save the company hundreds of millions of dollars annually -- hugely valuable for a cash-burning young EV maker.

Another advantage the DoE loan provides Rivian is more breathing room before repayment. Let's look at the first of two notes: Note A ($3.355 billion maximum principal) requires interest payments to begin on June 15, 2030, with principal repayments beginning in 2031 and final maturity on March 15, 2045.

This is a low-interest, multibillion-dollar loan with repayments beginning two to three years after its Georgia plant opens and ramps up production. This is just savvy business by Rivian.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.06-$0.40 (-3.21%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/22/26

The BIG point The biggest question for investors is how does Rivian's DoE loan to fund construction of its Georgia plant impact profitability? Great question, you!

Here's the truth: Rivian's upcoming Georgia plant could make the company far more efficient at scale, but reaching that scale will take time and could make its financial results a bit worse. Early on, each vehicle rolling out of Georgia is likely to be less profitable compared to one rolling out of a more maxed-out Illinois factory. It's not guaranteed due to many variables involved, but it is likely.

As Rivian grows and potentially builds more factories, it will have more flexibility, but this is the scenario for a young EV maker with one factory opening and now a second factory. Rivian almost certainly can't immediatly start selling vehicles at a rate that will require the Georgia facility to run at full capacity.

What it all means Investors can misinterpret Rivian's DoE loan because investors see a big dollar sign and hope for the best. The truth is much more business-like. The loan is certainly beneficial with favorable terms and conditions, and it gives a young company much needed breathing room before repayments begin. If all goes to plan, the EV maker should moderately fill production capacity at its Georgia plant by the time it begins favorable loan-term repayments.

If that holds true, this would be one big benefit any similar-sized rival to Rivian would envy.

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced it has acquired Third Dimension AI, Inc., a pioneer in AI-powered 3D spatial generation. The strategic transaction will accelerate synthetic data generation and full-world simulation for Rivian's driver assistance and self-driving systems. Third Dimension AI, founded by Tolga Kart and Piotr Sokolski, has developed a simulation platform that transforms real-world data into high-fidelity, controllable 3D envir.

We all get it -- headlines love to throw around massive billion-dollar figures as if everything is secure and concrete. Investors know that's not the world we live in. While Rivian's (RIVN -2.97%) Department of Energy (DoE) loan is old news, it's about to become far more important. Conditions need to be met, construction needs to be funded, and investors need to better understand how it affects the grand scheme of things for Rivian.

Starting from the top Let's make one thing clear: Rivian's DoE loan isn't free money, but it is cheaper financing with favorable terms and repayment dates. This helps the young electric vehicle (EV) maker to avoid potential capital raises to fund the construction of its Georgia facility out of its own pocket. Here's the catch, though: There are stipulations and conditions to meet before it can draw on this loan. That said, Rivian is likely to save a couple hundred million dollars annually using this favorable loan. That matters to a young company still burning mountains of cash.

This spring, Rivian renegotiated its original $6.57 billion loan from the U.S. DoE down to $4.5 billion. At first glance, one could forgive investors for thinking fewer dollars are a bad thing. Since it's a loan and not simply free money, the lower obligation (again, yes, a future obligation to repay debt) isn't necessarily a bad thing.

The important thing to understand is that the overall dollar figure needs to be accurate. Rivian doesn't need future obligations and repayments on billions in loans it isn't using to generate growth, and it doesn't need a loan that fails to meet what it needs to construct its upcoming Georgia factory. Dollars matter less, accuracy matters more.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.09-$0.37 (-2.97%)

NASDAQ · As of 3:32 PM ET 10/22/26

Break it down The $4.5 billion loan is just over $4 billion in loan principal, with just under $500 million in capitalized interest, meaning Rivian has $4 billion to use. It's also important for investors to understand that the capitalized interest is added to the outstanding balance and isn't an immediate up-front cash drain.

Again, this isn't free money, and it comes with conditions. Before Rivian can put its hands on the first loan draw, it has to meet conditions -- including positive gross margins, vehicle sale milestones, and the commitment of equity, to name a few -- and with the admission that specific figures aren't publicly known. Not to brush these somewhat mysterious conditions off as insignificant, but Rivian is expecting to complete these conditions and take the first loan draw in early 2027.

Image source: Rivian.

Show me the money! One intriguing condition involves Rivian's currently ramping R2. The DoE wants evidence that the time and cost required to "rework" R2 vehicles at its Illinois factory remain within specified limits, or an acceptable audit addressing those manufacturing issues. What this essentially means is that the DoE wants to see the time and money Rivian spends correcting manufacturing problems before expanding into its Georgia factory.

Thankfully, Rivian has shown encouraging operational progress, including raising its annual delivery guidance in July and recording a 57% jump in vehicle production from the second to third quarter. While that doesn't confirm it has met the DoE's specific R2 manufacturing requirements, it's an encouraging sign as Rivian works toward its first loan draw.

For investors, that makes Rivian's manufacturing execution worth watching just as closely as its sales growth. After all, securing favorable financing is one thing, but satisfying the conditions to actually access that capital is another. This DoE loan is very beneficial to Rivian and its growth through the rest of the decade.

Rivian Automotive's (RIVN -2.29%) most important financial milestone isn't another quarter of positive consolidated gross profit. It's unlocking the enormous gross profit potential of its automotive business as production of its highly anticipated R2 ramps up.

That's what makes the upcoming third-quarter earnings report so intriguing. Investors will get another glimpse of whether Rivian's improving vehicle economics can offset declining regulatory credit revenue and begin to drive what could be the company's biggest source of gross profit growth.

Graph worth a thousand words

Data source: Rivian SEC filings. Chart by author using ChatGPT.

This is a simple yet incredibly powerful graph that shows a couple of critical things.

First, not all gross profit is created equal. Between the two segments that feed into consolidated gross profit, automotive and software & services, the latter boasted a strong 42% gross profit margin during the second quarter, while the automotive business continues to run at a loss. That's why we see that software & services generated positive gross profit much faster, and has carried consolidated gross profit overall.

Second, and arguably more intriguing, is just how dramatically automotive gross profit has improved despite remaining in negative territory. Over the past year, Rivian's automotive gross profit improved by $299 million, roughly 3.5 times the $86 million improvement in software and services gross profit.

That illustrates the enormous potential impact of improved vehicle economics, even though the automotive industry remains unprofitable on a gross-profit basis. Or, in other words, automotive gross profit could have more upside in the near term than software.

A step further
That's what makes the next couple of quarters extremely intriguing, as investors will get early data on how the R2 production ramp-up affects automotive gross profit. There are certainly factors to consider, such as the high up-front costs of launching the R2 and low initial production. Once Rivian crosses that break-even threshold and operating leverage kicks in, and those fixed costs are absorbed over an increasingly larger vehicle fleet, the company can really gear up for a surge in automotive gross profits.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.18-$0.29 (-2.29%)

NASDAQ · As of 1:01 PM ET 10/22/26

This brings us to another important point highlighting the potential for automotive gross profit to soar over the next year: Rivian expanded R2 production by adding a second shift near the end of the third quarter. That means we won't see much, if any, impact of that additional shift in automotive gross margins for the third quarter, and the gains (hopefully) will be more organic efficiency and cost improvements, setting the stage for a bigger jump in automotive gross profits to end the year in style, as they say.

Keep in mind that even the fourth quarter won't fully capture Rivian's potential, as the EV maker plans to add a third shift next year and roll out the lower-priced R2 trims that generate higher volume demand and, in turn, production, which should combine to boost automotive gross profits even higher. Remember that Rivian launched the R2 with its highest-priced trims first to help offset high up-front costs and lower initial production numbers.

Automotive breakeven
Another huge factor to keep in mind is that during the second quarter, Rivian received about $108 million in regulatory credit sales and has noted that investors should expect this to be considerably less in the second half of the year.

Essentially, Rivian would have to lower costs and organically optimize the first shift enough to offset the loss of credit sales so automotive gross profits come in positive. That's asking a lot, even considering Rivian increased quarterly vehicle production by nearly 57%, from 12,613 in the second quarter to 19,751 in the third quarter.

Image source: Rivian.

Investors also have to be fair. More production doesn't always guarantee improvements in vehicle economics. That's because real-life operations entail higher labor expenses, supplier disruptions, potential recalls, or simply unexpected inefficiencies and costs.

What it all means
Software and services have provided Rivian with a valuable source of high-margin gross profit, but automotive could ultimately offer much greater upside as R2 production scales. The challenge is that higher production alone won't guarantee stronger margins, particularly as regulatory-credit revenue declines and the company absorbs the costs of launching a new vehicle.

That's what makes Rivian's third-quarter results so important. Investors shouldn't focus solely on whether automotive gross profit improves or deteriorates. Understanding why it changes will provide a much clearer picture of whether Rivian is approaching sustainable profitability in automotive. And even reaching that milestone would be just one step toward the larger goal of generating operating profits one day.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -0.96%) isn't scheduled to report third-quarter earnings until Oct. 29, but the electric vehicle (EV) maker's production and delivery numbers point to a strong quarter. The company said its Normal, Illinois, plant produced 19,751 vehicles, up 84.2% year over year, and delivered 19,248 cars in the third quarter, 45.8% more than in the same period a year ago.

The driving force for that growth is the company's launch of the R2, a midsize EV that competes with the Model Y from Tesla, the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai Motor, the EV6 from Kia Motors, and the Mustang Mach-E from Ford Motor Company.

The R2 is smaller than Rivian's R1 models and has a significantly lower price tag of $45,000 for the single-motor standard model. That price is still higher than the base models of its main competitors, but the R2 has a design edge with more ground clearance at 9.6 inches, fold-flat front seating, and standard off-road utility.

Here are three reasons to consider Rivian stock now, despite its more than 32% decline so far this year.

Image source: Getty Images.

The R2 broadens the company's appeal
Rivian's flagship R1T pickup and R1S SUV established its reputation as a premium brand, but those cars' $75,000-plus price tags naturally limited total addressable market (TAM) volume. The R2 brings the company into the higher-volume mid-size crossover market.

It also introduces the brand to more drivers who may choose higher-priced models down the line. Analysts project R2 deliveries will add more than 20,000 units in its initial rollout phase before ramping up significantly. This volume shift gives Rivian a clear runway to increase overall unit deliveries and claim broader EV market share.

Growth in revenue, production
In the second quarter, Rivian reported $1.66 billion in revenue, up 27% year over year, with gross profit of $179 million, up from a loss of $206 million in the same period a year ago. The stronger production numbers are also leading to improved margins, with Rivian reporting 11% gross margin in the quarter, an improvement of 2,700 basis points year over year.

In its preliminary third-quarter report, the company reiterated that it expects to deliver 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles in 2026, up from 42,247 delivered in 2025.

Rivian's decision to make a crossover SUV and to ramp up sales appears to be well timed. While EV sales suffered after government rebates were curtailed in the U.S., the soaring price of gas is making EVs appear like a smarter long-term choice for some consumers.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.34-$0.12 (-0.96%)

NASDAQ · As of 10:24 AM ET 10/22/26

Its software provides a dependable revenue stream
While traditional automakers rely almost entirely on one-off vehicle sales, where gross margins can be volatile, Rivian is building a high-margin technology ecosystem that functions more like a software company.

Through its joint venture with Volkswagen, Rivian licenses its proprietary electrical architecture, zonal hardware controllers, and software stack. In 2025 and 2026, software and services revenue surged to account for nearly 30% of Rivian's total top-line revenue, generating a gross margin above 35%. Licensing its technology platform to established global automakers creates a reliable, high-margin revenue stream that offsets automotive manufacturing losses.

As Rivian's on-road fleet expands with the R2 and R1 lines, the company is expanding its direct-to-consumer software offerings. Features like Connect+ (in-vehicle connectivity and satellite streaming) and Autonomy+ (advanced hands-free driving capabilities) generate predictable, recurring subscription revenue per active driver over the vehicle's lifespan.

A downtrend has been apparent in Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 17% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.

We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.

RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.

Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.

So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.

However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.

Why RIVN Could Bounce Back Before LongThe heavy selling of RIVN shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 24.9. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.

This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering RIVN in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 0.7% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.

Moreover, RIVN currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

It's an exciting time for Rivian (RIVN +0.24%) investors with the pivotal R2 ramping up production, a second shift that just came online late Q3 with a third shift planned next year, and the R3, which is expected to launch from its upcoming Georgia factory. Here's the thing about Rivian's drive toward profitability: The company isn't interested in the business of making cheaper vehicles; it's in the business of making vehicles more cheaply. Let me explain how.

The game of leverage There was a simple yet phenomenal example of exactly how Rivian is making vehicles more cheaply, rather than cutting features and options, which would remove value for consumers. That example came in an interview between The New York Times and Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe, when the latter noted the difference in leverage.

Scaringe essentially said that when Rivian prepared to launch its first R1 vehicles, the young, unproven, and obviously unprofitable electric vehicle (EV) maker had no negotiating leverage with suppliers that took on the risk of Rivian failing. Rivian's lack of leverage forced it to budget for supplier pricing premiums of roughly 40% to 50% -- such is the game in business.

My, how the tables have turned. Now Rivian boasts highly rated vehicles, improving gross profitability, an expanding vehicle lineup, and more credibility as an automaker and EV brand. Those same suppliers pushing for a 40% to 50% premium no longer have the same negotiation leverage over Rivian, giving the EV maker the ability to negotiate lower prices. All in all, the R2 bill of materials is expected to check in at about half of the R1's.

Image source: Rivian.

Savings without sacrifice Those are only examples of leverage and pricing; there's a long list of other improvements and increased efficiency with less redundancy. One massive example is Rivian driving an expected component-cost savings of 70% by swapping the R1's double-wishbone architecture with a strut design. Another example can be found in the underbody, where investors will find roughly 90% fewer parts and about 30% lower piece cost driven by large castings. One last one for the road: Rivian even managed to reduce rear-door parts by 65% and expects a 55% cost savings from the redesign.

We haven't even touched on the R2's lower pricing opening a much bigger consumer market that should drive scale higher. Those examples also didn't touch on the R3 crossover, which is slated to launch at the EV maker's Georgia factory, which opens in 2028. Scaringe noted in the interview that the R3 crossover pricing will even check in "materially lower" than the R2 and is expected to share the same platform.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.46+$0.03 (+0.24%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26

Why it matters For investors, Rivian's ability to reduce manufacturing costs, without sacrificing quality or value, could prove far more important than the lower sticker prices of its upcoming vehicles. That's because the combination of more affordable models, improved supplier pricing, and growing production scale could eventually drive both higher sales volumes and a stronger automotive gross margin.

To be fair, lower manufacturing costs don't guarantee improved profitability. The R2 and R3 will also sell for far less than Rivian's R1 vehicles, and ramping up production can bring additional expenses, early inefficiencies, and quality-control challenges.

But the opportunity is clear: Rivian is developing vehicles that can reach a much larger market while simultaneously finding ways to manufacture them more efficiently. If the company can turn those advantages into sustainable margins, its next generation of EVs could fundamentally change its path to profitability.

After all, the real opportunity isn't simply for Rivian to build and sell cheaper vehicles. It's for Rivian to build vehicles cheaper -- and become a more profitable automaker in the process.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 19.7% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.

We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.

RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.

Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.

So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.

However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.

Why a Trend Reversal is Due for RIVNThe heavy selling of RIVN shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 22.27. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.

This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering RIVN in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 0.7% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.

Moreover, RIVN currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

Rivian is going full steam ahead on developing autonomous vehicle software for its EVs, to the point that it is willing to delay profitability. Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said last week at TechCrunch Disrupt that he thinks autonomy will allow his company to build radically different kinds of vehicles than the outdoorsy SUVs and trucks it currently makes.

“Where it gets really interesting is when you think beyond R2 and R3 and start to imagine the form factors that you want to build for a personally-owned autonomous vehicle. You know, it opens up all kinds of design opportunities. It can create dramatically different experiences,” he said in an interview with TechCrunch. “I’m wildly excited about what the next 10 years look like in transportation because of what this enables us to dream and think about.”

This is not a new idea, to be sure. A decade ago, autonomous vehicle companies, legacy automakers, and many others promised that autonomy, combined with the proliferation of battery-electric drivetrains (which are simpler and take up less space than their gas-powered predecessors) would produce a Cambrian explosion of new mobility form factors.

This led to all kinds of crazy concepts getting bandied about at the time. Mercedes-Benz touted a bubbly pod-like design, as well as a long sedan packed with tech. Toyota and others dreamed up “rooms on wheels.” Hyundai once even showed off its idea for a car with legs.

This promised design revolution never escaped the concept and prototyping phase. Autonomy took longer than those companies anticipated to develop, and automakers (new and old) struggled with the harsh realities of manufacturing and selling an entirely new category of vehicle.

The difference now is that Scaringe’s comments came at a time when there are real robotaxis roaming the streets of multiple cities around the world. The software that powers them has seemingly developed to a level that is capable enough to operate them safely on public roads at scale, even if there are still some issues to work out when it comes to integrating them into the urban fabric of cars, bikes, pedestrians, and emergency vehicles. The components that make up electric vehicle motors and batteries have gotten cheaper, and companies like Tesla and Rivian (and many more in China) have gotten better at building them at scale.

Rivian has a lot of work ahead before it gets to driverless vehicles. The company is at the beginning of its effort to scale production of the R2 SUV, which it needs to get right in order to reverse years of losses that it incurred to become a major EV player.

On the autonomy side, Rivian is just a few years removed from completely reworking its approach to self-driving software, and it still has a ways to go.

The company has shipped a driver assistance system that allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel, while still watching the road. It has promised that, by the end of this year, that software will be capable of driving from start to finish — which the company calls “point-to-point navigation” — without intervention, though still under driver supervision. And it is working toward full autonomy, which it plans to deploy in robotaxi versions of its R2 SUV that will be available on Uber’s ride-hail app.

But if Rivian achieves full autonomy, most of that driving will be done in personally-owned vehicles, Scaringe said in the interview, echoing previous comments he’s made.

“You know, 95% of the miles driven in the United States — so this is trillions of miles — 95% of these miles are in things that we personally own, so like you own it, or your household owns it. And so our view is it’s unlikely, even with Level 4 capabilities, that we’re going to see a dramatic societal shift away from that,” he said, referencing the Society of Automotive Engineers’ classification for autonomous vehicles that operate in a specific area.

That figure “may go from 95% to 90%, it may go from 95% to 80%, but still the vast majority of the miles driven for a lot of societal and psychological reasons are likely to stay the same,” he said.

It’s this belief that has Scaringe dreaming about the design of a fully-autonomous, personally-owned Rivian, he said.

As for what that looks like, though, Scaringe was mum.

“So we did R1, then we did R2, then we did R3. The thing after R3 is going to be called R4 — we just haven’t shown what it looks like,” he said. “It’s going to be cool. It’s going to be great.”

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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

The electric vehicle (EV) market remains a high-stakes arena where luxury and utility fight for dominance. Choosing between Lucid Group (LCID -10.57%) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN -4.61%) depends on your risk appetite and long-term outlook for the sector.

Lucid targets the high-end luxury sedan market with industry-leading efficiency, while Rivian focuses on rugged outdoor enthusiasts and commercial fleets. Both companies are racing to scale production while managing significant cash burn as they challenge established industry leaders. This comparison evaluates which manufacturer offers a better balance of growth and stability.

Lucid Group designs and builds luxury electric vehicles and related software for the premium automotive market. It maintains a major purchase agreement with the Government of Saudi Arabia for up to 100,000 vehicles over 10 years. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business. The company also maintains technology integration agreements with Uber Technologies and Nuro to expand its market footprint.

In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, the company reported revenue of nearly $1.4 billion. This represents a roughly 67.6% increase over the prior fiscal year, when revenue was approximately $807.8 million. Despite this substantial growth, the company reported a net loss of approximately $2.7 billion for the year.

Lucid has total cash of $761.3 million, while debt totals $3.6 billion, giving it a debt-to-equity ratio of 197.8%. It has an operating cash flow of negative $4 billion over the trailing 12-month period.

LCID Lucid Group$3.13-$0.37 (-10.57%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

The case for Rivian AutomotiveRivian Automotive focuses on the production of consumer trucks and commercial delivery vans. It is highly dependent on commercial fleet sales, most notably an electric delivery vehicle purchase agreement with Amazon (AMZN -1.87%). Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business. Additionally, the company has established a joint venture with Volkswagen (VLKPF +2.49%) to focus on vehicle electrical architecture and software development.

In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, the company reported revenue of nearly $5.4 billion. This reflects a growth rate of more than 8% over the previous fiscal period. The company ended the year with a net loss of approximately $3.6 billion.

Rivian îs in a better place than Lucid based on its total cash and total debt. Rivian has $5.3 billion in cash and $5.3 billion in debt. It also has an operating cash flow of negative $1.8 billion over a 12-month trailing period.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.42-$0.60 (-4.61%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

Risk profile comparisonLucid faces significant risks from its limited operating history and continued net losses. It remains highly reliant on the Public Investment Fund (PIF) for capital support. The company is currently defending against a securities class action lawsuit related to alleged delivery and manufacturing misrepresentations. Furthermore, Lucid manages substantial supply chain risks as a single-source buyer for many vehicle components. It also faces intense competitive pressure from other manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA -2.13%).

Rivian faces liquidity and financing risks associated with its need for continuous capital to fund operations and manufacturing. This includes the construction of the Stanton Springs North Facility. The company is actively managing a transition in its CFO role while navigating past securities class action litigation that has reached settlement agreements. Additionally, its reliance on the joint venture with Volkswagen for core software capabilities creates an operational risk. If the partnership fails to meet technical objectives, it could impact long-term commercial goals.

Valuation comparisonBoth companies are losing money, making traditional metrics harder to use, but Lucid appears cheaper than Rivian.

MetricLucidRivian AutomotiveP/B ratio3.1x4.2xP/S ratio0.9x3.2xWhich stock would I buy in 2026?Both companies are losing money and should be considered as more speculative positions, earning correspondingly small, speculative stakes. That said, between the two, I would rather own Rivian for the long haul.
With its vans and midsize SUVs, Rivian has a broader appeal and bigger revenue opportunities than Lucid. For example, in 2025, Rivian delivered over 42,000 vehicles. In comparison, Lucid delivered a little under 16,000 vehicles.

Between the two, I also like Rivian's partnerships with Amazon and Volkswagen, despite the concentration risks. In 2020, Amazon agreed to purchase up to 100,000 electric vans from Rivian, expecting to deploy that full fleet by 2030. That deal, of course, could always be revised upward, especially as Rivian develops autonomous vehicles. I also like the joint venture with Volkswagen, as partnering with another company helps reduce research and development costs and can help scale autonomous driving technology faster.

Shares of both stocks are down over the past year, but Rivian has fared better: its shares are down 4.6%, while Lucid's are down 84%. Given that Rivian has a broader revenue pool to target, backed by its orders from Amazon and the technological advancements it can make through its partnership with Volkswagen, I foresee Rivian continuing to outperform Lucid and being the better stock to own.

Tesla just strapped rocket hardware onto a car that flips in midair, and the stock is responding. But with no price tag, no road-approval plan, and margins already under pressure, the question is whether this stunt signals a turning point…

A sports car that flips in midair is giving Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) a lift. Tesla stock is up 4% to $375.29 in morning trading, rising after the company revealed a redesigned Roadster that adopts hardware from a rocket maker. Even with that advance, Tesla shares remain down 17% year to date (YTD).

Meanwhile, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is up 1% to $13.15, a smaller gain than Tesla stock. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is essentially unchanged at $3.50, trailing both Tesla and Rivian shares.

Large-cap tech is slipping. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.2%, leaving Tesla shares with a wide lead over large-cap tech. For a sector check, the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is practically unchanged this morning.

SpaceX Thrusters Power the Roadster Debut
Tesla unveiled its redesigned Roadster on Thursday night at a SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) rocket test site in Texas. During the demonstration, the car flipped in midair and landed using cold-gas thrusters borrowed from SpaceX. SpaceX develops the Raptor engines behind its Starship program, so the Roadster puts that propulsion pedigree on a Tesla showcase.

Pricing for the thruster-equipped Roadster versions is still unannounced, and Tesla has yet to lay out a road-approval path for them. The Roadster also went unmentioned on Tesla’s Q2 2026 earnings call in July, where management focused on Model Y, Robotaxi, Cybercab, Optimus and the Semi.

Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q3 2026 deliveries that beat a consensus it compiled itself. Those deliveries still trailed the year-earlier quarter. Model YL, launched in the U.S. in July, joined Tesla’s lineup before that delivery report.

Rivian and Lucid Lack the Rocket Link
Rivian and Lucid are smaller electric vehicle makers with no link to SpaceX hardware. On the product side, Rivian sells the R1T pickup, the R1S SUV and the midsize R2, while Lucid offers the Air sedan and the Gravity SUV. Tesla already uses SpaceX’s Starlink inside the Cybercab, giving it a hardware tie that precedes the Roadster.

Shares of both smaller car makers trail Tesla stock on a YTD basis. Over the same span, Rivian shares are down 33%, and Lucid shares are down 67%.

Autonomy is where plans at Tesla, Rivian and Lucid overlap most directly. Driverless service from Tesla now runs in seven U.S. metros, while Rivian has a partnership covering up to 50,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis. Lucid lists its own robotaxi program among its four priorities under a new chief executive.

Engineering Credibility Meets a Missing Price Tag
Engineering credibility grounds the bull case for Tesla, along with its closer ties to SpaceX. A car adopts flight hardware fits its push into Cybercab, Optimus robots and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Tesla posted record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and its active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, up 56% year over year.

Skeptics see Tesla’s showcase car with no price or road-approval path. The company’s Q2 revenue rose 25.5% year over year to $28.24 billion, topping expectations, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 missed the $0.54 estimate.

Spending weighs heavily on Tesla, with its operating margin contracted to 1.4% and free cash flow at negative $1.09 billion in Q2. Management stated on the earnings call, “We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion.” Its $43.5 billion cash pile gives Tesla room to fund that expansion.

From Roadster Stunt to Road-Ready Product
Tesla now must see whether the Roadster becomes a priced, road-approved product. Tesla’s next quarterly report will show whether demand for FSD and Model Y holds up.

Manufacturing deadlines add to the load, with Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 all slated for production this year while Optimus lines are being installed. Traders may prefer to keep their exposure small until the Roadster’s path to market resolves.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider General Motors?The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. General Motors (GM - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.57 a share five days away from its upcoming earnings release on October 20, 2026.

General Motors' Earnings ESP sits at +1.22%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.52. GM is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

GM is one of just a large database of Auto, Tires and Trucks stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on October 29, 2026, Rivian Automotive holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is -$0.62 a share 14 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian Automotive is -$0.66, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +7.38%.

GM and RIVN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--American automaker Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) and energy technology company Redwood Materials today announced a major expansion of their partnership, establishing Redwood as one of Rivian's key partners to enabling end-to-end energy solutions—recycling Rivian's production scrap and end-of-life EV batteries, as well as providing stationary battery storage at its manufacturing plant in Normal, Illinois. Through the partnership, Redwood collects Rivian EV battery packs.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RIVN, LCID, TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Tesla is pulling away from its U.S. rivals after quietly swapping out a driver-assistance name that regulators across Europe have been fighting for years, and the move carries higher stakes than a simple rebrand suggests.

A rebrand of Tesla‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) driver-assistance software in Europe is setting the company apart from the rest of the electric vehicle group. Tesla stock is up 3% to $385.90 in morning trading, a move that leaves its closest U.S. rivals well behind. Behind the gain is a Bloomberg report on a new European name for the system, one that drops a Full Self-Driving label regulators have objected to.

Shares of two smaller U.S. rivals, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID), aren’t rallying like Tesla stock is today. Rivian stock is down 0.9% to $14.19, a slight dip against the advance in Tesla stock. Meanwhile, Lucid stock is up 1% to $3.87, a gain that still trails the group leader.

Broader readings tell a much quieter story across electric vehicle and autonomous driving names. The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV), a thematic basket that includes Tesla alongside many other auto, battery and chip names, is up 0.3%. That fund is moving in line with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), which is also up 0.3%, a match that marks this as a Tesla-specific session.

Tesla Assisted Driving Replaces a Contested Name Bloomberg reported that Tesla has begun using the name Tesla Assisted Driving on its European websites, dropping the Full Self-Driving branding. The company seeks regulatory approval for the driver-assistance system across the continent. Tesla has kept Full Self-Driving (Supervised) on its U.S. website, leaving the two regions with different names for the system. According to Bloomberg, the system is sold as a subscription priced at $99 per month.

Dutch regulators approved the system in April. They emphasized that it was a more restricted version than the one available in the U.S. The company is continuing to seek approval in other European countries. That country-by-country effort is what gives a naming decision real regulatory weight for Tesla, since each market can set its own terms.

Software Upside Meets Regulatory Limits Optimists argue that dropping a controversial name removes an obstacle regulators objected to. Wider European approval would extend Tesla’s high-margin software product into a large market. In that scenario, the rebrand reads as a practical concession that clears the way for the company.

From the bearish side, Tesla’s renaming changes what the system is called and leaves what it does unchanged, as approval still rests with national regulators who have so far granted Tesla only a restricted version. Each additional country remains a separate decision outside the company’s control.

Rivian and Lucid fold driver-assistance features into the price of the vehicle, so buyers don’t see a separate monthly charge for them. That approach leaves both companies with far less software exposure to a European decision than Tesla carries. For Tesla, by contrast, each new national approval adds another market for a paid subscription.

What to Watch Next National approvals beyond the Netherlands remain the main hurdle for Tesla’s European subscription plans. The key question is whether other European regulators approve Tesla Assisted Driving, and on what terms, since the Dutch approval came with limits. For now, it’s not a bad idea to keep all position sizes in TSLA stock measured and moderate.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) received the full $1 billion commitment from Volkswagen Group (XETRA:VOW) on Wednesday, with the proceeds distributed to the electric-vehicle maker for general corporate purposes.

The funding was provided under the companies’ existing joint venture agreement through two linked $1 billion loans involving the joint venture and a Rivian subsidiary.

The joint venture borrowed $1 billion from a Volkswagen entity under Loan A at a fixed interest rate of 5.93%, while a Rivian subsidiary borrowed $1 billion under Loan B at a fixed rate of 6.03%.

The Rivian subsidiary used proceeds from the second loan to make a distribution to Rivian, providing the electric-vehicle maker with the full $1 billion commitment.

The Loan B facility is non-recourse to Rivian and is secured by the company’s 50% equity interest in the joint venture.

Both loans mature on October 7, 2036, with principal repayments beginning in 2029 at $100 million a year through two $50 million installments.

The remaining balances will be due when the loans mature in 2036, according to the filing.

Rivian said neither loan is guaranteed by the company, limiting its liability under the second loan to certain agreements, representations and warranties.

The structure allows Rivian to access the committed funding while using its equity interest in the joint venture as security rather than providing a broader corporate guarantee.

The transaction comes under the companies’ existing partnership, through which Volkswagen has committed substantial funding to support Rivian’s technology and electric-vehicle development.

Rivian can use the $1 billion distribution for general corporate purposes, providing additional funding as the electric-vehicle maker continues to invest in its operations and vehicle programs.

Volkswagen's funding and higher oil prices offer potential support for Rivian, but slowing EV demand continues to weigh on sentiment.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) closed at $14.34 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.17% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.22%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.66%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.22%.

The stock of a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars has fallen by 10.27% in the past month, lagging the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 1.09% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.4%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Rivian Automotive in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on October 29, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of -$0.67, marking a 4.29% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $1.97 billion, showing a 26.32% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.

Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of -$2.25 per share and revenue of $7.33 billion, indicating changes of +8.16% and +35.98%, respectively, compared to the previous year.

Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Rivian Automotive. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged. Rivian Automotive is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, which puts it in the top 40% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

To follow RIVN in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.

Rivian beat delivery expectations and still watched its stock crater, leaving investors to wonder whether the EV startup's ambitious recovery plan was already unraveling before it even got started.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) posted what should have been good news. It produced 19,751 vehicles and delivered 19,248 vehicles in the third quarter. This was above most expectations. The company’s stock dropped after the announcement. It is down 26% this year. The disappointment is that it did not raise its full-year delivery guidance, which is between 65,000 and 70,000. The new figures only looked good for a few moments.

Rivian’s recovery is supposed to be driven by its new R2 SUV. The base price will be just below $45,000. However, people cannot buy this model yet. Anyone who reads the fine print, which is hard to find on the Rivian website, sees that this low-price model will not be available for over a year. Today, the “R2 Launch Edition” costs $57,990. The sequence suggests management needs to get something out the door.

Rivian’s other two vehicles, which it clearly understands are too expensive, are the R1S SUV, which starts at $84,000 and goes up to $122,000, and the R1T pickup, which starts at $80,000 and goes up to $116,000.

Rivian made a poor decision early in its history. It assumed people wanted extremely expensive EV SUVs and pickups. It bet wrong and is now trying to fix the mistake. It’s too late to do that.

Rivian also faces the same problem as any car company selling EVs in the US. EV sales are down about 20% through the first half of this year. The expiration of the $7,500 tax credit at the end of last September did significant damage. And the public still doesn’t like an EV’s range on a single charge or the lack of public charging stations, especially because they can be crowded.

Rivian lost $833 million on $1.7 billion in revenue during the last quarter. It’s hard to imagine it selling enough vehicles to break even. That is why the stock won’t recover.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Rivian Automotive NASDAQ: RIVN recently reported an approximately 46% year-over-year delivery surge in its third quarter, confirming that its sub-$50,000 R2 platform is overcoming early manufacturing hurdles.

Yet beneath this hardware success, a newly formalized software joint venture with Volkswagen Group OTCMKTS: VWAGY is quietly providing the liquidity required to outlast the broader electric vehicle sector shakeout. By leaning into software revenue and maintaining commercial baseloads, Rivian is engineering a financial bridge to long-term viability.

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Rivian's R2 Delivery SurgeIn the third quarter of 2026, Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles. This represents an approximate 46% increase from the same period last year, indicating that the company's assembly lines are moving past the bottlenecks that tend to plague new automotive entrants.

Rivian Automotive Today

RIVN

Rivian Automotive

$14.51 -0.09 (-0.62%)

As of 10/6/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

$12.39▼

$22.69$19.00

Much of this volume growth stems from the ongoing rollout of the R2 SUV, which has opened Rivian to a broader, cost-conscious consumer base.

Despite beating delivery estimates, Rivian pulled back slightly immediately after the report. Management held full-year 2026 guidance steady at about 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles rather than raising expectations. This conservative stance stems from prevailing macroeconomic headwinds.

With federal EV tax credits expiring, automakers are leaning on promotional financing to move inventory. Keeping guidance flat reflects an understanding that while production is solved, the consumer distribution environment remains tight. For investors, this signals a management team focused on realistic execution rather than inflating short-term expectations.

Volkswagen Backstops the Balance SheetHardware production is notoriously capital-intensive, and Rivian's financials reflect those costs. The company currently carries a trailing 12-month net loss of around $3.65 billion and a net margin of about negative 55%.

If Rivian relied solely on selling metal and batteries, the cash runway would be a continuous concern for any value-oriented analyst. A current ratio of about 2.1 provides near-term breathing room, but long-term survival would require a change in unit economics.

However, the financial narrative shifts when factoring in the joint venture with Volkswagen Group. Volkswagen began deploying an initial $1 billion in capital into Rivian in 2026, creating a non-dilutive liquidity backstop. This partnership centers on Rivian's software architecture, which the legacy German automaker plans to integrate into its own global fleets.

This transition alters the revenue mix. Rivian's software and services segment recently achieved a gross margin of roughly 42%. By monetizing its code and electrical architecture, Rivian creates a high-margin revenue stream that subsidizes assembly-floor losses. This joint venture effectively derisks the balance sheet, providing the capital necessary to reach profitability without immediately diluting shareholders. Selling software to competitors is a structural pivot that transforms Rivian from a traditional metal-bender into a technology provider.

Anchoring With Amazon DeliveriesConsumer demand for electric vehicles fluctuates with interest rates and general economic sentiment. To insulate against these consumer cycles, an automaker needs reliable commercial partners.

Rivian's ongoing fulfillment of Electric Delivery Vans for Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN serves as a structural baseload for the factory.

This commercial fleet order provides predictable, contracted volume, allowing Rivian to plan supply chain purchases and manage factory overhead more efficiently. A predictable demand curve allows Rivian to negotiate better volume discounts with suppliers, helping keep its costs low.

While the R2 SUV captures public attention, steady commercial van production ensures manufacturing facilities maintain the utilization rates needed to work toward positive gross margins. When the retail market softens, the commercial division acts as a financial shock absorber. This dual-pronged approach gives Rivian a distinct advantage over peers who rely heavily on direct-to-consumer retail sales.

Wall Street's Tug of WarAny stock analysis requires looking at where institutional money is positioned. Currently, around 154 million shares are sold short, representing about 10.8% of the free float. This indicates measurable market skepticism about Rivian's path to profitability.

59th Percentile

Hold

30.9% Upside

Bearish

N/A

0.40 Selling Shares

Growing

See Full Analysis

A pattern of insider stock sales reinforces this cautious sentiment. Top executives, including CEO RJ Scaringe and CFO Claire McDonough, systematically sold tens of thousands of shares throughout 2026. While insider selling can reflect standard portfolio diversification or tax planning, sustained selling is often a sufficiently bearish indicator to keep value-oriented investors on the sidelines.

On the operational side, scaling a new model like the R2 is rarely seamless. Rivian recently issued an R2 recall related to improperly tightened battery-pack fasteners. While not catastrophic, warranty repairs carry near-term costs and pose brand-reputation risks in a highly competitive market.

The options market suggests that speculative capital sees an opportunity to capitalize on the recent price compression. In early October, traders bought over 147,000 call options in a single session, roughly 27% above the daily average. This activity suggests traders are positioning for upside, weighing the Volkswagen capital injection and production beats more heavily than short-term manufacturing friction.

The Road Ahead for RivianThe electric vehicle sector has bifurcated. On one side are companies struggling to fund basic operations, and on the other are established manufacturers transitioning toward software-defined mobility. As R2 production scales, the high-margin software partnership with Volkswagen subsidizes operations, and the solid commercial baseload with Amazon supports the business; Rivian is carving out a position in the latter category.

The transition requires navigating steep hardware losses and macroeconomic pressures, but Rivian's underlying fundamentals reveal a maturing enterprise. Investors looking to position in the automotive sector may want to evaluate Rivian as it continues to execute its production targets and integrate its software infrastructure with global partners.

Should You Invest $1,000 in Rivian Automotive Right Now?Before you consider Rivian Automotive, you'll want to hear this.

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Key Takeaways Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in Q3, up 45.8% year over year and 58% sequentially.Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles as sales fell 6.6% year over year and production dropped sharply.Rivian holds the edge, but investors should watch whether R2 scale improves profitability. The third-quarter delivery numbers are in for two of America's best-known EV startups, and they tell opposite stories. Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) logged record deliveries and beat expectations. Lucid Group’s (LCID - Free Report) deliveries slipped and the company leaned on old inventory. Both companies still burn heavy cash and sell cars at weak margins. Let’s assess which stock has an edge now. Before that, here’s a closer look at their delivery numbers.

RIVN’s Record QuarterRivian built 19,751 vehicles at its Illinois plant and delivered 19,248, topping Wall Street's average estimate of 18,000, per CNBC.  Deliveries rose 45.8% from the year-ago quarter and 58% sequentially.

The driver was R2, a smaller and cheaper SUV that began reaching customers in June. Until then, Rivian sold only premium vehicles, the R1S SUV and R1T pickup. A lower-priced model matters more now that federal EV tax credits have ended, tariffs are biting and industry demand is soft. Management says the R2 ramp is on track and volumes should climb over the coming quarters.

Rivian reaffirmed its 2026 target of 65,000 to 70,000 deliveries, higher from 42,247 delivered last year. After 41,807 deliveries in the first nine months of 2026, it needs at least 23,193 more in the fourth quarter to reach the bottom of that range, about 20% above third-quarter’s record. That is demanding but plausible if R2 output keeps rising. Since third-quarter deliveries already beat estimates, the bar is high, and any slip in R2 supply would be concerning.

Lucid’s Weaker Sales & Smaller OutputLucid delivered 3,806 vehicles but produced only 2,954. Deliveries fell short of analyst estimates. They were down 6.6% on a yearly basis and 3.7% sequentially. Production dropped 38% from 4,774 in second-quarter 2026 after the company removed a second shift at its Arizona plant. Selling from stock instead of building new cars is part of a broader cost overhaul.

Lucid is attempting a company-wide reset aimed at $1.4 billion in cash flow gains this year— roughly $600-800 million from inventory, $500 million from capital spending and $200 million from operating costs. That helps preserve cash, but it does not fix the underlying economics of the business.

In the first nine months of 2026, Lucid delivered 10,852 vehicles. The company sold 15,841 units last year. To merely match 2025 levels, it needs to deliver 4,989 vehicles in the fourth quarter, roughly 31% more than the September quarter. That looks quite unlikely, although Lucid says demand for its Gravity SUV is regaining momentum.

Autonomy Bets on Both SidesBoth firms are chasing robotaxi revenues. Lucid's new deal with Bolt, a European ride platform, targets at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles as part of Bolt's goal of 100,000 by 2035. Separately, Uber Technologies has committed to at least 35,000 Lucid cars and invested $500 million. Nuro and NVIDIA are also partners.

Rivian also signed with Uber in March for up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis, with the latter pledging up to $1.25 billion through 2031, tied to milestones. Volkswagen is another pillar. Its joint venture supplied 60% of Rivian's software and services revenues in the second quarter, and Rivian expects $1 billion in non-recourse debt financing from Volkswagen this year.

These deals offer long-term optionality, but for now they are promises, not profits.

Margins Remain the Core ProblemLucid’s gross margin was negative 105% in the second quarter, and free cash flow was negative $1.48 billion, underscoring how far vehicle economics are from breakeven. Reaching positive margins will require better fixed-cost absorption, lower conversion costs and tighter inventory control. Lower production, however, limits the scale benefits it can capture.

Rivian is closer to breakeven compared to Lucid but still loses money on its vehicles. Its second-quarter automotive gross loss was $36 million, a negative 3% margin, and the R2 launch added about $100 million in extra costs from ramp inefficiencies, expedited freight and supplier premiums. The pressure is expected to continue in the third quarter before scale benefits emerge in the final quarter of 2026. In the June quarter, Rivian’s free cash flow was negative $849 million.

Price Performance & EstimatesYear to date, Lucid has tanked more than 60%, underperforming Rivian’s decline of 26%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimates indicate that Rivian's loss per share will narrow 8% in 2026 and a further 23% in 2027.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Lucid's loss per share is expected to widen 0.5% this year before shrinking 46.5% in 2027.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Our TakeNeither Rivian nor Lucid is a clean buy today. Both carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

But Lucid is the weaker case, with shrinking deliveries and a gross margin that is deeply negative. It is likely to post weaker annual deliveries in 2026. Meanwhile, Rivian is poised for full-year 2026 delivery growth. Credible product ramp and strategic backers augur well for RIVN, but it still burns cash and needs fourth-quarter margins to improve sharply.

While Rivian holds an edge over Lucid currently, investors should consider the stock only if the fourth quarter shows R2 scale narrowing its automotive gross loss to breakeven or better.

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN -3.12%), the maker of electric pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans closed at $14.30, down 3.12%. Shares spiked at the open after the positive Q3 delivery news was announced. Still, investors later focused on the unchanged full-year outlook and are watching for Rivian's Oct. 29 full financial results.
Trading volume reached 59.1 million shares, coming in about 107% above its three-month average of 28.6 million shares. Rivian Automotive IPO'd in 2021 and has fallen 86% since going public.

How the markets moved todayThe S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.73%) closed at 7,723, up 0.74%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +1.19%) finished at 27,191, up 1.19%. Among electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers of automobiles and light trucks, Tesla closed at $370.59, up 4.65%, while Lucid Group closed at $4.13, down 1.43%, highlighting a mixed session for EV names.

What this means for investorsFriday's delivery update revealed 19,248 vehicles delivered and 19,751 produced. Those were strong numbers, but still in line with company expectations. It led Rivian to reaffirm its 2026 delivery outlook. That was underwhelming for investors, and Rivian stock gave back all the early gain and more.

To meet the full-year vehicle delivery guidance, the company will need to report over 28,000 units shipped in Q4 to reach the high end of the range. That's what investors are waiting to see.

The Q3 results represented a 46% increase over the same period last year. Yet the company's estimates for this year suggest it could nearly triple fourth-quarter deliveries from last year.

If Rivian achieves that, it would confirm growth and momentum, and that may be when investors will decide to move shares higher.

Howard Smith has positions in Lucid Group, Rivian Automotive, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares are dropping Friday despite the company reporting third-quarter production and delivery figures that came in line with its own outlook.

Rivian Automotive stock is among today’s weakest performers. What’s weighing on RIVN shares? Rivian’s Q3 Results Match Guidance, Full-Year Outlook ReaffirmedRivian’s Normal, Illinois plant turned out 19,751 vehicles during the three months ending September 30. The company handed off 19,248 of those to customers over that same window. Both figures landed right where Rivian said they would.

The company kept its full-year delivery target untouched too, still expecting somewhere between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles for 2026.

Even with guidance left unchanged, Rivian stock remained under pressure.

Q3 Output Builds On a Strong Second QuarterCompared with the prior quarter, Rivian’s latest numbers show real growth. Back in the second quarter, the company turned out 12,613 vehicles and got 12,194 into customers’ hands, well below this quarter’s totals. That earlier period also brought in almost $1.66 billion in overall revenue, a 27% jump from the same quarter a year earlier.

Breaking that down further, vehicle sales brought in $1.14 billion, up 23% annually, even as average selling prices slipped due to a bigger mix of commercial vans and R2 deliveries.

Analyst Ratings Remain Mixed On RivianWall Street’s overall take on Rivian still lands on Buy, with price targets averaging $19.79 across 21 analysts and spanning $14 to $25.

Dig into the more recent calls, though, and the mood looks less enthusiastic. Citigroup opened coverage September 14 with a Neutral rating and an $18 target. RBC Capital nudged its target to $16 on July 31, but kept its Sector Perform rating unchanged. Morgan Stanley moved the same day, lifting its target to $14 while sticking with an Underweight call.

RIVN Shares Are SlidingRIVN Price Action: Rivian shares were down 3.73% at $14.21 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) reported record third-quarter deliveries on Friday, beating analysts' estimates after rolling out its cheaper ​R2 SUV targeted at a broader section of the ‌mass EV market.

Shares of the Irvine, California-based EV maker were up about 1.4% in premarket trading.

The R2, for which deliveries began in June, is ​seen by analysts as critical to Rivian's growth strategy, ​as the electric vehicle sector navigates a challenging ⁠US policy environment marked by the end of federal EV ​tax credits, tariffs and weaker industry-wide demand.

Before the R2, the ​EV maker's consumer lineup featured the R1S SUV and R1T pickup truck, both positioned as premium models.

Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in the ​quarter ended September 30, beating analysts' average estimate of ​18,001 vehicles, according to data compiled by Visible Alpha.

The company also reaffirmed ‌its ⁠2026 delivery forecast of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, saying quarterly production and deliveries were in line with its expectations. Analysts on average estimate the EV maker will deliver 66,685 vehicles in ​2026.

Rivian produced ​19,751 vehicles at ⁠its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, during the quarter.

The EV maker raised its annual delivery forecast ​in July, citing stronger-than-expected demand for the model.

It ​also ⁠struck a long-term partnership with Uber in March, under which the ride-hailing firm agreed to invest up to $1.25 billion in the EV ⁠maker ​and begin deploying fully autonomous R2 ​SUVs as robotaxis from 2028.

Rivian is scheduled to report third-quarter financial results on ​October 29.