Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Registration data can be a helpful tool for investors trying to glean more information from automakers' sales trends. It probably isn't explained enough, but vehicle registration data serves as a proxy for vehicle sales. It provides a more inclusive and detailed look at model information, as some automakers don't break out U.S. sales from global numbers, and/or don't report monthly. The catch is that it can lag other sales data by about a month.

With that said, let's take a look at the newest data that highlights Rivian Automotive's (RIVN -1.91%) surge toward the top during a rough overall month, trailing only Tesla (TSLA -0.63%) in August EV registrations.

Image source: Rivian.

Show me the data! There are a lot of key takeaways for investors in the EV registration data, which, for the record, doesn't include hybrids, only full battery electric vehicles (EVs). Scratching the surface of August data, it initially appears to have been a brutal month for EV sales in the U.S., recording a sharp 36% decline compared to the prior year. But remember that is right when car buyers were jumping all over EV purchases before a Sept. 30, 2025, expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.

Going forward, after one more month of skewed year-over-year comparisons, the picture should be much clearer regarding the U.S. EV industry's health.

Rivian, along with Toyota, was a clear bright spot in late-summer registrations. Thanks in part to Rivian launching its highly anticipated R2 in June, the company jumped from No. 10 in U.S. EV registrations a year ago up to No. 2, trailing only Tesla. The good news for Rivian investors is that August was still in the early innings of accelerating production of the R2, and the company added a second production shift late in the third quarter, which won't show up in registration data in full until October's data is collected and released. That means Rivian may not give up its No. 2 spot for some time, especially considering that a third production shift is planned next year.

The good news for Rivian is not all R2-driven Don't get me wrong; Rivian's data was certainly boosted by the addition of R2 registration data, where none existed in the prior year, but it wasn't the only reason for Rivian's surge higher. Rivian's R2 recorded 1,554 registrations in August, a figure that will again be boosted by increased efficiency, additional shifts, and the upcoming launch of lower-priced R2 trims. Remember, Rivian's R2 launch process began by producing and delivering its most expensive, and likely more profitable, models/trims first.

The intriguing part of Rivian's August registration data might actually have come from an often-overlooked aspect of its business: the electric vans it largely produces for retail juggernaut Amazon. Registrations for those mostly Amazon-destined electric vans jumped 87% to 2,165 vehicles compared to the prior year. That helped push Rivian's overall U.S. registrations up 33% in August, despite the R1S dropping 53% as the model ages and more affordable competition continues to hit the road.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$11.83-$0.23 (-1.91%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

Key takeaways Despite Tesla losing some of its stranglehold on the U.S. EV market in recent years, it still has a dominant share, with registrations nearly 10 times those of No. 2 Rivian, recording 48,083 registrations to Rivian's 4,995. Tesla's registrations did drop 14% in August, still far better than the broader EV market's decline, which enabled its share of the EV market to rise to 54.5%.

There was another clear trend in that the few bright spots in August registration data (Rivian, Toyota, Subaru) were driven by launches of new, fresh models. The race is on for automakers to continue not only lowering EV costs and launching additional models -- now that Chinese automakers are cutting the time to develop a new vehicle by about half of the historical time, expect EV makers to try to speed up their processes. That will put a lot of pressure on Rivian, with arguably only one mainstream model until the R3 launches.

That said, if you're a Rivian investor, you walked away from this data -- still early in the R2 production ramp phase -- feeling pretty darn good about ranking No. 2 before the R2 really gains production momentum.

We all get it -- headlines love to throw around massive billion-dollar figures as if everything is secure and concrete. Investors know that's not the world we live in. While Rivian's (RIVN -2.97%) Department of Energy (DoE) loan is old news, it's about to become far more important. Conditions need to be met, construction needs to be funded, and investors need to better understand how it affects the grand scheme of things for Rivian.

Starting from the top Let's make one thing clear: Rivian's DoE loan isn't free money, but it is cheaper financing with favorable terms and repayment dates. This helps the young electric vehicle (EV) maker to avoid potential capital raises to fund the construction of its Georgia facility out of its own pocket. Here's the catch, though: There are stipulations and conditions to meet before it can draw on this loan. That said, Rivian is likely to save a couple hundred million dollars annually using this favorable loan. That matters to a young company still burning mountains of cash.

This spring, Rivian renegotiated its original $6.57 billion loan from the U.S. DoE down to $4.5 billion. At first glance, one could forgive investors for thinking fewer dollars are a bad thing. Since it's a loan and not simply free money, the lower obligation (again, yes, a future obligation to repay debt) isn't necessarily a bad thing.

The important thing to understand is that the overall dollar figure needs to be accurate. Rivian doesn't need future obligations and repayments on billions in loans it isn't using to generate growth, and it doesn't need a loan that fails to meet what it needs to construct its upcoming Georgia factory. Dollars matter less, accuracy matters more.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.09-$0.37 (-2.97%)

NASDAQ · As of 3:32 PM ET 10/22/26

Break it down The $4.5 billion loan is just over $4 billion in loan principal, with just under $500 million in capitalized interest, meaning Rivian has $4 billion to use. It's also important for investors to understand that the capitalized interest is added to the outstanding balance and isn't an immediate up-front cash drain.

Again, this isn't free money, and it comes with conditions. Before Rivian can put its hands on the first loan draw, it has to meet conditions -- including positive gross margins, vehicle sale milestones, and the commitment of equity, to name a few -- and with the admission that specific figures aren't publicly known. Not to brush these somewhat mysterious conditions off as insignificant, but Rivian is expecting to complete these conditions and take the first loan draw in early 2027.

Image source: Rivian.

Show me the money! One intriguing condition involves Rivian's currently ramping R2. The DoE wants evidence that the time and cost required to "rework" R2 vehicles at its Illinois factory remain within specified limits, or an acceptable audit addressing those manufacturing issues. What this essentially means is that the DoE wants to see the time and money Rivian spends correcting manufacturing problems before expanding into its Georgia factory.

Thankfully, Rivian has shown encouraging operational progress, including raising its annual delivery guidance in July and recording a 57% jump in vehicle production from the second to third quarter. While that doesn't confirm it has met the DoE's specific R2 manufacturing requirements, it's an encouraging sign as Rivian works toward its first loan draw.

For investors, that makes Rivian's manufacturing execution worth watching just as closely as its sales growth. After all, securing favorable financing is one thing, but satisfying the conditions to actually access that capital is another. This DoE loan is very beneficial to Rivian and its growth through the rest of the decade.

Rivian Automotive's (RIVN -2.29%) most important financial milestone isn't another quarter of positive consolidated gross profit. It's unlocking the enormous gross profit potential of its automotive business as production of its highly anticipated R2 ramps up.

That's what makes the upcoming third-quarter earnings report so intriguing. Investors will get another glimpse of whether Rivian's improving vehicle economics can offset declining regulatory credit revenue and begin to drive what could be the company's biggest source of gross profit growth.

Graph worth a thousand words

Data source: Rivian SEC filings. Chart by author using ChatGPT.

This is a simple yet incredibly powerful graph that shows a couple of critical things.

First, not all gross profit is created equal. Between the two segments that feed into consolidated gross profit, automotive and software & services, the latter boasted a strong 42% gross profit margin during the second quarter, while the automotive business continues to run at a loss. That's why we see that software & services generated positive gross profit much faster, and has carried consolidated gross profit overall.

Second, and arguably more intriguing, is just how dramatically automotive gross profit has improved despite remaining in negative territory. Over the past year, Rivian's automotive gross profit improved by $299 million, roughly 3.5 times the $86 million improvement in software and services gross profit.

That illustrates the enormous potential impact of improved vehicle economics, even though the automotive industry remains unprofitable on a gross-profit basis. Or, in other words, automotive gross profit could have more upside in the near term than software.

A step further
That's what makes the next couple of quarters extremely intriguing, as investors will get early data on how the R2 production ramp-up affects automotive gross profit. There are certainly factors to consider, such as the high up-front costs of launching the R2 and low initial production. Once Rivian crosses that break-even threshold and operating leverage kicks in, and those fixed costs are absorbed over an increasingly larger vehicle fleet, the company can really gear up for a surge in automotive gross profits.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.18-$0.29 (-2.29%)

NASDAQ · As of 1:01 PM ET 10/22/26

This brings us to another important point highlighting the potential for automotive gross profit to soar over the next year: Rivian expanded R2 production by adding a second shift near the end of the third quarter. That means we won't see much, if any, impact of that additional shift in automotive gross margins for the third quarter, and the gains (hopefully) will be more organic efficiency and cost improvements, setting the stage for a bigger jump in automotive gross profits to end the year in style, as they say.

Keep in mind that even the fourth quarter won't fully capture Rivian's potential, as the EV maker plans to add a third shift next year and roll out the lower-priced R2 trims that generate higher volume demand and, in turn, production, which should combine to boost automotive gross profits even higher. Remember that Rivian launched the R2 with its highest-priced trims first to help offset high up-front costs and lower initial production numbers.

Automotive breakeven
Another huge factor to keep in mind is that during the second quarter, Rivian received about $108 million in regulatory credit sales and has noted that investors should expect this to be considerably less in the second half of the year.

Essentially, Rivian would have to lower costs and organically optimize the first shift enough to offset the loss of credit sales so automotive gross profits come in positive. That's asking a lot, even considering Rivian increased quarterly vehicle production by nearly 57%, from 12,613 in the second quarter to 19,751 in the third quarter.

Image source: Rivian.

Investors also have to be fair. More production doesn't always guarantee improvements in vehicle economics. That's because real-life operations entail higher labor expenses, supplier disruptions, potential recalls, or simply unexpected inefficiencies and costs.

What it all means
Software and services have provided Rivian with a valuable source of high-margin gross profit, but automotive could ultimately offer much greater upside as R2 production scales. The challenge is that higher production alone won't guarantee stronger margins, particularly as regulatory-credit revenue declines and the company absorbs the costs of launching a new vehicle.

That's what makes Rivian's third-quarter results so important. Investors shouldn't focus solely on whether automotive gross profit improves or deteriorates. Understanding why it changes will provide a much clearer picture of whether Rivian is approaching sustainable profitability in automotive. And even reaching that milestone would be just one step toward the larger goal of generating operating profits one day.

After the market closes on Oct. 29, Rivian (RIVN +0.24%) is gearing up to report results for the third quarter -- a period that ended on Sept. 30. The earnings report is set to be a big moment for the company and will provide investors with key insights into the business's gross margin, progress in production and deliveries, and demand outlook.

With its last quarterly update, Rivian reiterated its guidance to deliver between 65,000 and 75,000 vehicles in the current fiscal year -- which ends Dec. 31, 2026. If the company hits the midpoint of that guidance range, it would represent roughly 60% annual growth over the 42,247 vehicles that it delivered in fiscal 2025. Just how many vehicles will the company need to have delivered in Q4 in order to meet its target?

Image source: Rivian.

Rivian's deliveries are seeing an encouraging increase Automakers now report third-quarter vehicle deliveries at the start of October, before releasing their full earnings reports. In the third quarter, Rivian said it delivered 19,248 vehicles -- up 45% year over year from the prior-year period. Meanwhile, the company delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2 and 10,365 vehicles in Q1. Across the first three quarters of the year, the delivery count totaled 41,807 vehicles.

This means the company will need to deliver 23,193 vehicles in the current quarter to meet the low end of its guidance and 28,193 vehicles to meet the high end of the target range. Hitting the midpoint of the guidance range would require the delivery of 25,693 vehicles in Q4.

RIVN Rivian Automotive$12.46+$0.03 (+0.24%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26

Notably, there appears to be a good chance the business will significantly exceed the low end of its guidance range. The average analyst estimate had called for Rivian to deliver roughly 18,000 vehicles in fiscal Q3 -- but actual results breezed past that projection. Along with demand coming in significantly stronger than expected in Q3, Rivian has also recorded a substantial sequential delivery ramp-up in each quarter this year. Even better, the rate of deliveries growth has been accelerating.

The huge jump in Q3 coincided with the launch of the company's R2 platform electric vehicle (EVs) -- which began deliveries in June. With production still ramping up in that period and less than a month of sales for the vehicles in the fiscal quarter powering a big sequential increase in deliveries, there are good reasons to think the company will record an even greater sequential increase in deliveries in fiscal Q4.

While hitting the 28,193 needed to reach the high end of the company's guidance might look like a tall order compared with earlier quarters, it actually appears within reach. When Rivian reports its Q3 earnings at the end of the month, investors will also want to hear about contributions from its software offerings and updates on its autonomous technologies; the software side of the business has become central to driving gross profit. Investors will also be looking for updated guidance from the company on Q4 deliveries.

Rivian is going full steam ahead on developing autonomous vehicle software for its EVs, to the point that it is willing to delay profitability. Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said last week at TechCrunch Disrupt that he thinks autonomy will allow his company to build radically different kinds of vehicles than the outdoorsy SUVs and trucks it currently makes.

“Where it gets really interesting is when you think beyond R2 and R3 and start to imagine the form factors that you want to build for a personally-owned autonomous vehicle. You know, it opens up all kinds of design opportunities. It can create dramatically different experiences,” he said in an interview with TechCrunch. “I’m wildly excited about what the next 10 years look like in transportation because of what this enables us to dream and think about.”

This is not a new idea, to be sure. A decade ago, autonomous vehicle companies, legacy automakers, and many others promised that autonomy, combined with the proliferation of battery-electric drivetrains (which are simpler and take up less space than their gas-powered predecessors) would produce a Cambrian explosion of new mobility form factors.

This led to all kinds of crazy concepts getting bandied about at the time. Mercedes-Benz touted a bubbly pod-like design, as well as a long sedan packed with tech. Toyota and others dreamed up “rooms on wheels.” Hyundai once even showed off its idea for a car with legs.

This promised design revolution never escaped the concept and prototyping phase. Autonomy took longer than those companies anticipated to develop, and automakers (new and old) struggled with the harsh realities of manufacturing and selling an entirely new category of vehicle.

The difference now is that Scaringe’s comments came at a time when there are real robotaxis roaming the streets of multiple cities around the world. The software that powers them has seemingly developed to a level that is capable enough to operate them safely on public roads at scale, even if there are still some issues to work out when it comes to integrating them into the urban fabric of cars, bikes, pedestrians, and emergency vehicles. The components that make up electric vehicle motors and batteries have gotten cheaper, and companies like Tesla and Rivian (and many more in China) have gotten better at building them at scale.

Rivian has a lot of work ahead before it gets to driverless vehicles. The company is at the beginning of its effort to scale production of the R2 SUV, which it needs to get right in order to reverse years of losses that it incurred to become a major EV player.

On the autonomy side, Rivian is just a few years removed from completely reworking its approach to self-driving software, and it still has a ways to go.

The company has shipped a driver assistance system that allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel, while still watching the road. It has promised that, by the end of this year, that software will be capable of driving from start to finish — which the company calls “point-to-point navigation” — without intervention, though still under driver supervision. And it is working toward full autonomy, which it plans to deploy in robotaxi versions of its R2 SUV that will be available on Uber’s ride-hail app.

But if Rivian achieves full autonomy, most of that driving will be done in personally-owned vehicles, Scaringe said in the interview, echoing previous comments he’s made.

“You know, 95% of the miles driven in the United States — so this is trillions of miles — 95% of these miles are in things that we personally own, so like you own it, or your household owns it. And so our view is it’s unlikely, even with Level 4 capabilities, that we’re going to see a dramatic societal shift away from that,” he said, referencing the Society of Automotive Engineers’ classification for autonomous vehicles that operate in a specific area.

That figure “may go from 95% to 90%, it may go from 95% to 80%, but still the vast majority of the miles driven for a lot of societal and psychological reasons are likely to stay the same,” he said.

It’s this belief that has Scaringe dreaming about the design of a fully-autonomous, personally-owned Rivian, he said.

As for what that looks like, though, Scaringe was mum.

“So we did R1, then we did R2, then we did R3. The thing after R3 is going to be called R4 — we just haven’t shown what it looks like,” he said. “It’s going to be cool. It’s going to be great.”

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

Rivian recently rolled out an AI assistant that lets drivers and passengers interact with the company’s electric vehicles just by talking to them. But the carmaker’s founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, said at TechCrunch Disrupt this week that, in the future, Rivian’s cars will be able to run AI agents made by other companies like Anthropic.

“That’s where it becomes magical,” Scaringe said onstage.

Scaringe didn’t say when Rivian would implement this, and the company declined to offer more details, pointing instead to the “AI & Autonomy Day” event it’s hosting in December.

But it’s not hard to imagine how Rivian might integrate something like Claude, OpenAI’s Dots, or Meta’s Muse assistant into its software. The company has developed its in-car software from the ground up, instead of leaning on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto, and built a lot of its own applications, like navigation (though it has worked to integrate popular in-car apps like Apple Music).

Rivian says it has created its own in-house agentic framework that understands what action a person wants to take when they talk to the vehicle, and routes it to the right part of the car’s software. Most of the time, that involves what you’d expect: asking the car to turn down the temperature, activate the seat warmers, or summarize the news.

“Think of it as like a traffic light. So if you ask the vehicle something, it decides what model it’s going to use. It can use a local model that’s running on the edge and the vehicle. If it’s a more complex question, it can go up to the cloud. And then even for that, we have different models that we use,” Scaringe said.

As of May of this year, the agent could access external apps like Google Calendar. And Scaringe said at Disrupt the next step would be to add products from the frontier AI companies, though making them work in the car won’t be easy.

“There’s a lot of plumbing behind the scenes we have to do to make sure that that works, and it’s not just within Rivian. That’s also a lot of coordination with the labs to make sure they enable that plumbing,” he said, adding that putting this kind of software near safety-critical systems means Rivian has to be extremely careful.

“You wouldn’t want an agent to determine, ‘hey, it’s time to apply the brakes, or time to steer the vehicle.’ So anything that’s vehicle-level controls are not being handed to an agent,” he said.

Instead, he thinks the implementation will look more like an extension of how people currently use these agentic apps. That would mean Rivian would have to find a way to connect the vehicle to all of the context that apps like Muse collect on their users.

For example, Scaringe said, a driver could ask the Rivian assistant to turn on the ventilated seats before going deeper. “And then simultaneously say, ‘We were talking yesterday about this meal. I’m planning to have guests over on Friday. Can you help me think through what we’re going to make?’,” he said. The car could then pull the driver’s context from a conversation they had with the assistant on another device.

Of course, Rivian wouldn’t be the first American car company to add AI agents to a car’s software. Earlier this year, Tesla added a feature that let users talk to both SpaceX’s Grok chatbot and also its Grok Bot assistant.

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) received the full $1 billion commitment from Volkswagen Group (XETRA:VOW) on Wednesday, with the proceeds distributed to the electric-vehicle maker for general corporate purposes.

The funding was provided under the companies’ existing joint venture agreement through two linked $1 billion loans involving the joint venture and a Rivian subsidiary.

The joint venture borrowed $1 billion from a Volkswagen entity under Loan A at a fixed interest rate of 5.93%, while a Rivian subsidiary borrowed $1 billion under Loan B at a fixed rate of 6.03%.

The Rivian subsidiary used proceeds from the second loan to make a distribution to Rivian, providing the electric-vehicle maker with the full $1 billion commitment.

The Loan B facility is non-recourse to Rivian and is secured by the company’s 50% equity interest in the joint venture.

Both loans mature on October 7, 2036, with principal repayments beginning in 2029 at $100 million a year through two $50 million installments.

The remaining balances will be due when the loans mature in 2036, according to the filing.

Rivian said neither loan is guaranteed by the company, limiting its liability under the second loan to certain agreements, representations and warranties.

The structure allows Rivian to access the committed funding while using its equity interest in the joint venture as security rather than providing a broader corporate guarantee.

The transaction comes under the companies’ existing partnership, through which Volkswagen has committed substantial funding to support Rivian’s technology and electric-vehicle development.

Rivian can use the $1 billion distribution for general corporate purposes, providing additional funding as the electric-vehicle maker continues to invest in its operations and vehicle programs.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) reported record third-quarter deliveries on Friday, beating analysts' estimates after rolling out its cheaper ​R2 SUV targeted at a broader section of the ‌mass EV market.

Shares of the Irvine, California-based EV maker were up about 1.4% in premarket trading.

The R2, for which deliveries began in June, is ​seen by analysts as critical to Rivian's growth strategy, ​as the electric vehicle sector navigates a challenging ⁠US policy environment marked by the end of federal EV ​tax credits, tariffs and weaker industry-wide demand.

Before the R2, the ​EV maker's consumer lineup featured the R1S SUV and R1T pickup truck, both positioned as premium models.

Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in the ​quarter ended September 30, beating analysts' average estimate of ​18,001 vehicles, according to data compiled by Visible Alpha.

The company also reaffirmed ‌its ⁠2026 delivery forecast of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, saying quarterly production and deliveries were in line with its expectations. Analysts on average estimate the EV maker will deliver 66,685 vehicles in ​2026.

Rivian produced ​19,751 vehicles at ⁠its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, during the quarter.

The EV maker raised its annual delivery forecast ​in July, citing stronger-than-expected demand for the model.

It ​also ⁠struck a long-term partnership with Uber in March, under which the ride-hailing firm agreed to invest up to $1.25 billion in the EV ⁠maker ​and begin deploying fully autonomous R2 ​SUVs as robotaxis from 2028.

Rivian is scheduled to report third-quarter financial results on ​October 29.

Image: Bigstock

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Key Takeaways Rivian plans to equip employee R2 vehicles with LiDAR and RAP1 by year-end 2026.Customer deliveries of the new autonomy hardware are expected to begin in 2027.Rivian aims to expand the technology across its full Autonomy fleet later next year. Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) plans to equip its first R2 vehicles with LiDAR and an internally developed RAP1 autonomy computer for employees by the end of 2026, while customer deliveries are expected to begin in 2027, per Electrek. This timeline could be viewed as a shift from the company’s earlier communications.

Rivian introduced its third-generation autonomy hardware, the RAP1 chip, last December. The system is rated at 1,600 sparse INT8 TOPS and is designed to work with LiDAR on the R2. At the time, Rivian said the technology would arrive in late 2026. However, the R2 launched in June without the new hardware. A production-ready-looking R2 equipped with LiDAR was later spotted near Rivian’s Irvine headquarters.

Per Rivian’s VP of Investor Relations Chip Newcom, production of the RAP1 system will initially be focused on the R2, with employees receiving the technology first. The company plans to install the third-generation computer and LiDAR in employee vehicles later this year before expanding the rollout to customers in 2027. Thus, Rivian’s late 2026 target remains technically intact, although it initially applies only to employees. The company has not specified when customer deliveries will begin in 2027. Per Rivian, the LiDAR and dual-RAP1 hardware are now included in automotive cost of goods and have become relatively inexpensive.

According to Rivian’s SVP of Autonomy & AI James Philbin, the rollout is expected to begin toward year-end, initially reaching early-adopter customers with R1 Gen 2 vehicles and later Gen 2 hardware revisions. This includes fleets Rivian classifies as Phase II and Phase III. The company aims to extend the technology across its full Autonomy+ fleet later next year, although certain use cases, such as parking lots, may not be supported in the initial version.

Latest Updates on Autonomous Mobility by Other AutomakersLucid Group, Inc. (LCID - Free Report) and Bolt, a leading European shared mobility platform, have entered into a strategic partnership to develop and launch autonomous mobility services across Europe. The collaboration will combine Lucid’s software-defined vehicle platform with Bolt’s European mobility data, operational infrastructure and industry expertise. As part of the partnership, Lucid and Bolt will jointly develop an autonomous driving system-ready vehicle platform designed to support SAE Level 4 autonomous mobility from the product-development stage.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) is also advancing its autonomous-driving efforts in Europe. France has begun testing two vehicles to further evaluate Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) advanced driver-assistance system. In April, the Netherlands’ road authority RDW provisionally approved Tesla’s FSD system for use on Dutch roads, prompting Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania to take similar steps ahead of a potential bloc-wide vote on the system.

Published in auto-tires-trucks autonomous-vehicles electric-vehicles

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -0.20%) has spent years trying to become a major player in the electric vehicle market. Now a new deal with Uber (UBER -1.23%) could open the door to an entirely different opportunity: robotaxis.

Uber plans to deploy at least 10,000 autonomous Rivian R2 vehicles, with the option to purchase as many as 40,000 more beginning in 2030. That's huge! Uber is also prepared to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, although most of that money is tied to Rivian hitting specific autonomous-driving milestones. For a company expected to deliver only 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles in all of 2026, this is not trivial.

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More than an EV company To be sure, Rivian still needs to prove it can profitably manufacture electric vehicles at scale. In Q2, the company delivered 12,194 vehicles and generated $1.66 billion in revenue. It posted a $179 million gross profit, but its automotive business still recorded a $36 million gross loss. Rivian also burned through $849 million in free cash flow during the quarter. But robotaxis could give Rivian another way to make money from the technology it's already developing.

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Rivian's newest autonomy platform goal is eventually to reach level 4 autonomy. At this level, a vehicle can drive itself without a human, but only within defined operating conditions.

Rivian is also selling Autonomy+, its advanced driver-assistance software, for $49.99 per month or $2,500 upfront. That starts to move Rivian beyond the economics of simply building a vehicle and collecting a one-time sale.

The Uber deal changes the equation Uber brings something Rivian doesn't have: enormous ride-hailing scale. Uber completed 3.9 billion trips in the second quarter alone, up 18% from a year earlier. If Rivian can successfully develop level 4 autonomy, Uber gives it a ready-made network that can put thousands of autonomous vehicles to work.

Image source: Getty Images.

Of course, there are still risks. Rivian hasn't yet demonstrated level 4 autonomy commercially, the first deployments aren't expected until 2028, and the additional 40,000 vehicles aren't guaranteed purchases. Still, the deal shows what Rivian could become.

The R2 may help Rivian reach a much larger consumer market. But if the same vehicle platform can also become the foundation for tens of thousands of autonomous taxis, Rivian won't just be selling EVs. It could also be selling the hardware and software that drive them. And that completely changes the game.

Rivian (RIVN +3.27%), a maker of high-end electric vehicles, went public at $78 per share on Nov. 10, 2021. It closed at a record high of $172.01 just six days later, but it only trades at about $15 today. During the same period, the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.10%) rallied nearly 120%.

Rivian initially impressed investors because it was already producing thousands of vehicles, and it was backed by Ford Motor Company (F -1.04%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.08%). But in 2022, it produced only 24,337 vehicles -- compared to its original target of 50,000 -- as it struggled with supply chain issues. By early 2023, Ford had sold nearly all of its Rivian shares.

Image source: Rivian.

Rivian more than doubled its production to 57,232 vehicles in 2023 as it overcame some of those challenges, but that figure shrank again to 49,476 in 2024 and 42,284 in 2025. That failure to expand its business, along with its staggering losses, weighed down its stock.

But with a market cap of $22 billion, Rivian trades at less than three times this year's sales. Tesla (TSLA -0.32%), which is worth $1.5 trillion, trades at 14 times this year's sales. So could some fresh catalysts drive investors to revalue Rivian as a higher-growth EV stock? Let's see if it can bounce back and outperform the S&P 500 through the end of the decade.

What are Rivian's upcoming catalysts? Rivian produces four vehicles: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, R2 SUV, and custom electric delivery vans (EDVs) for Amazon and other companies. The R1T and R1S both start at around $80,000.

Those high prices limit Rivian's total addressable market, so it launched the more affordable R2 earlier this year, which starts at less than $60,000. It plans to launch even cheaper trims of the R2 -- which will start between $45,000 and $54,000 -- throughout late 2026 and 2027.

The R2 costs roughly half as much to build as its R1 vehicles, thanks to its simpler design, consolidation of its electrical systems, and streamlined powertrains and sensors. Therefore, Rivian can sell the R2 at higher gross margins than the R1, even with a lower price tag.

Rivian expects its deliveries to soar from 42,247 vehicles in 2025 to 65,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026 (including about 20,000-25,000 R2 SUVs). If it achieves that goal, analysts expect its revenue to surge 38% to $7.4 billion this year and 58% to $11.8 billion in 2027.

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What are Rivian's upcoming catalysts? Over the next few years, Rivian will mainly focus on ramping up its production of the R2. To support that expansion, it will need to expand its production beyond its main plant in Illinois by bringing its new Georgia plant online by 2028.

Rivian expects the Georgia plant to increase its annual production capacity by 300,000 vehicles, and it's expanding the Illinois plant's capacity to 215,000 vehicles. Therefore, we could see Rivian's annual production exceed half a million vehicles by the end of the decade.

By the late 2020s, Rivian plans to launch its smaller R3 SUVs (an R3 hatchback and a rally inspired R3X) at even lower prices to reach a younger demographic. Those vehicles, which will be built on the same low-cost platform as the R2, could drive its sales even higher.

As Rivian produces more of these higher-margin vehicles, economies of scale will kick in. It will also likely expand its joint venture with Volkswagen (VWAPY -2.28%), which generates high-margin revenues by licensing its electronic architecture and software to the automaker.

Rivian ended its latest quarter with $5.85 billion in total liquidity. But if we include all of its projected capital streams from Volkswagen, Department of Energy loan facilities, and pending investments, it still has more than $14 billion to fund its ambitious expansion.

Analysts expect all those catalysts to boost Rivian's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) into positive territory by 2028. They also expect it to gradually narrow its net losses on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis.

Where will Rivian's stock be by the end of 2030? If Rivian matches analysts' estimates and generates $15.6 billion in revenue in 2028, and it trades at a more generous 10 times sales, its stock could soar sevenfold within the next two years. If it increases its annual production to half a million vehicles by the end of the decade, its stock could command a higher valuation and soar even higher by 2030.

Therefore, Rivian could still easily outperform the S&P 500 through 2030. But it can't do that without successfully ramping up its R2 deliveries and opening its Georgia plant.

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) had a busy stretch this week that included a fresh analyst initiation and commentary from management on its R2 production ramp.

Rivian stock is trading flat. What should traders watch with RIVN? Citigroup Sees Profitability Hinging on R2 SUV RampCitigroup initiated coverage on Rivian Monday with a Neutral rating and an $18 price target, saying the company has not yet shown it can build vehicles at high volume and that its longer-term case rests on scaling the new R2 midsize SUV. R2, Rivian’s lowest-priced vehicle, is the model management has cast as the company’s path to profitability. After 22,559 first-half deliveries, Rivian has guided to 65,000-70,000 vehicles for 2026, including 20,000-25,000 R2 units — a pace that requires doubling its second-half run rate.

Scaringe Addresses the R2 RampSpeaking at Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference Tuesday, CEO RJ Scaringe said the factory itself is not the constraint on Rivian’s ramp. “Our ramp-up is gated by or throttled by the rate at which we ramp up our suppliers,” he said, noting that Tier 2 and Tier 3 vendors — rather than larger Tier 1 suppliers — tend to be the more challenging bottleneck. A second production shift remains on track to begin by the end of September.

Evercore Forum ParticipationRivian also announced that its SVP of Autonomy & AI, James Philbin, and Vice President of Investor Relations, Chip Newcom, will participate in a fireside chat at the Evercore ADAS, AV & AI Forum on Tuesday, September 29, at 2:40 p.m. ET

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Rivian Shares Trade FlatRIVN Price Action: At the time of publication, Rivian shares are trading 0.63% higher at $15.50, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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MarketBeat Week in Review – 08/24 - 08/28Rivian Automotive NASDAQ: RIVN is entering what founder and CEO RJ Scaringe described as an “inflection point year,” as the electric-vehicle maker begins scaling its R2 midsize SUV and expands its software, autonomy and licensing initiatives.

Speaking at a Morgan Stanley event, Scaringe said the R2 is intended to move Rivian beyond the premium positioning of its R1 lineup and into a broader segment of the auto market. Rivian launched the R1 vehicles in 2021, he said, establishing the brand and generating customer loyalty, but their pricing limited their mass-market reach.

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What Rising Delivery Forecasts Say About Rivian's Stock Prospects“R2 is really the mass market vehicle,” Scaringe said. “The vehicle that takes this positive brand sentiment, positive enthusiasm for what we’re creating, and puts it to scale.”

R2 Demand and Trim Rollout Scaringe said Rivian launched R2 with a narrow range of configurations, including a single Launch Edition trim, in an effort to reduce manufacturing and supply-chain complexity during the initial production ramp. The Launch Edition starts at $57,000 and has limited color and paint choices.

MarketBeat Week in Review – 07/06 - 07/10According to Scaringe, more early customers have selected the higher-priced Launch Edition than Rivian had anticipated. He said some consumers who may have expected to purchase an approximately $50,000 version instead opted for the $57,000 to $58,000 model, reflecting enthusiasm for the vehicle.

Over the next 12 months, Rivian expects to introduce additional R2 versions. Scaringe said the company plans premium variants priced in the mid-$50,000 range and standard trims priced in the $40,000 range. The expected R2 lineup will span from a $45,000 starting price to more than $57,000 at the high end.

While Rivian is making adjustments to the timing of specific variants, Scaringe said the overall rollout schedule is broadly unchanged.

He characterized the R2 customer base as broad, including buyers who may otherwise consider midsize SUVs and crossovers such as the Toyota RAV4, Toyota 4Runner, Ford Bronco, Honda CR-V and Audi Q5. Although Rivian is frequently asked about comparisons with Tesla’s Model Y, Scaringe said the opportunity extends well beyond that vehicle’s customer base.

Scaringe said R2 has also drawn interest from consumers considering an electric vehicle for the first time. He added that R2 test drives have more than doubled compared with prior levels, calling test-drive volume a key leading indicator of demand because conversion rates have been positive.

Supply Chain Sets the Pace for Production While Rivian’s plant ramp remains important, Scaringe said the company’s production increase is currently constrained more by supplier readiness than by capacity at Rivian’s manufacturing facility.

“We can only ramp as fast as our slowest ramping supplier,” Scaringe said.

He said Rivian’s plant capacity is ahead of the supply-base ramp, requiring the company to coordinate hundreds of direct suppliers and thousands of companies further upstream in the supply chain. Challenges can emerge among Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers, he said, particularly amid changing trade relationships and broader supply-chain uncertainty.

Scaringe said the company’s full-year guidance reflects its production expectations and that Rivian has made only a slight adjustment during the year. Rivian knows which suppliers are ramping most slowly and has personnel working with those suppliers to address constraints, he said.

The company’s planned second shift remains on track, according to Scaringe. He said Rivian is coordinating the additional shift with supplier production increases and has invested in training manufacturing team members, team leaders and group leaders.

Autonomy, Licensing and Robotaxi Plans Scaringe also highlighted Rivian’s technology strategy. He referenced a $5.8 billion licensing arrangement with Volkswagen, announced in late 2024, involving Rivian’s software and electronics platform for brands in Volkswagen’s portfolio.

Rivian also has an agreement with Uber to develop a robotaxi version of R2, with deployment planned for late 2028, Scaringe said. The company expects to hold an autonomy and artificial-intelligence event near the end of the year, when it plans to provide updates and announce a specific rollout date for new features.

A major near-term objective is supervised point-to-point driving, Scaringe said. Under that feature, a driver would enter a destination and the vehicle would navigate from a parking space or garage to the destination and locate parking, while the driver remains responsible for supervision.

Scaringe said the technology represents a step toward eyes-off driving and eventually Level 4 autonomy, in which a vehicle can operate without a driver present. He said Rivian expects the autonomy roadmap to progress meaningfully over the next two to three years, with 2028 serving as an important year for the company’s planned Level 4 robotaxi deployment.

Rivian’s autonomy approach centers on what Scaringe called a “Large Driving Model,” trained using fleet data and supported by cameras, radar and a planned LiDAR deployment. He said Rivian believes advanced autonomy will remain a relatively scarce capability and could provide pricing power, vehicle-market-share opportunities and technology licensing revenue.

“We’re spending a lot of money and time developing that,” Scaringe said, adding that Rivian intends to pursue both vehicle sales growth and sales of its technology platforms to other automakers.

About Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN)Rivian Automotive, Inc designs, develops and manufactures electric vehicles and related technology. Its consumer vehicle lineup includes the R1T electric pickup truck and R1S electric SUV, which are designed for on-road and off-road use. The company also develops charging solutions, vehicle software and connected services intended to support the ownership and operation of its electric vehicles.

Rivian produces electric commercial vans for delivery and fleet applications, including vehicles developed through its relationship with Amazon.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.15%) has some big goals. It delivered 22,559 electric vehicles in the first half of 2026. To reach its full-year target, it must deliver another 42,400 to 47,400 vehicles in the second half.

This would require about 88% to 110% more deliveries than in the first half. Management also expects vehicle deliveries to be weighted toward the fourth quarter as R2 production ramps.

Let's see if Rivian can deliver.

Image source: Getty Images.

R2 needs a scale to become profitable Rivian began delivering the R2, an affordable mid-size SUV, to customers on June 9. However, R2 is currently hurting Rivian's profitability as production ramps. In Q2, Rivian recorded about $100 million of additional costs related to the launch. The company's automotive business posted a $36 million gross loss. Rivian expects higher R2 production and deliveries to help its automotive business reach positive gross profit by 2026's end.

Part of the $100 million in extra R2 costs is from temporary expenses such as faster shipping and higher payments to suppliers. Rivian expects costs to decline as production rises. Higher output should also help spread factory costs across more vehicles, improving profitability.

Rivian expects the cost of R2's materials and components to be about half that of R1, while other production costs should fall by more than 50%. This is based on Rivian's expected average vehicle costs at the end of 2027.

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The fourth quarter will be the real test for R2 Rivian's biggest near-term focus is getting suppliers ready for higher volumes. It started R2 production on one shift, while the second shift is not expected to add significant volume until the fourth quarter.

Rivian is also testing demand at the higher price end of the R2 lineup. The R2 Performance starts at $57,990, while the lower-priced $44,990 Standard model will not arrive until 2027.

The fourth quarter should show whether the R2 ramp is improving Rivian's economics. Deliveries need to rise sharply, but losses per vehicle also need to narrow. Otherwise, higher volumes alone will not make the ramp successful.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rivian (RIVN.O) CFO Claire McDonough has decided to leave the company to join GE Vernova (GEV.N) in the same role, ​just as the electric vehicle maker ramps up rollout of its ‌more affordable SUVs amid fragile EV demand in the U.S.

McDonough will join GE Vernova later this year and take on the CFO role at the beginning of 2027, succeeding the retiring Ken Parks, ​the company said.

Parks joined the power equipment maker ahead of its 2024 spin-off from ​General Electric (GE.N) and helped build its financial infrastructure as a ⁠standalone public firm.

McDonough, a former banker with JPMorgan and Credit Suisse, joined ​Irvine, California-based Rivian early in 2021 and took the company through its initial ​public offering.

She played a key role in the launch of Rivian's flagship R1T pickups and R1S SUVs, while leading cost-cutting and fundraising efforts as the company races to build a ​new plant, develop self-driving technology and aims to turn profitable.

Her exit comes ​at a crucial time for Rivian. The company started delivering its lower-priced R2 SUVs in ‌June ⁠and raised its annual delivery forecast last month, buoyed by optimism over the vehicles that are seen as critical to the company's success.

Shares of Rivian were down more than 1% in extended trading.

McDonough will help with the transition and step ​down at the ​end of October, ⁠Rivian said, adding that the search for her replacement was underway. The company's vice president of finance, Derek Mulvey, ​is expected to take over in the interim.

At GE Vernova, she will ​be tasked ⁠with boosting profitability at a time when rapid AI data center expansion is driving strong demand for gas turbines and grid equipment. The company, however, is ⁠seeing widening ​losses in its wind energy business amid weak ​onshore demand and higher project costs.

Also has raised another $150 million as the micromobility startup that spun out of Rivian last year expands its business beyond pedal-assist electric bikes and commercial cargo quads to autonomous delivery vehicles.

The Series D round was led by Prysm Capital and included existing backers Eclipse, Greenoaks, and MVP Ventures. Also has raised $455 million since its founding less than two years ago.

The new capital will be used to “accelerate the development” of the company’s autonomous driving technology and the “simultaneous progression of multiple autonomous form factors,” according to the company. These future vehicles will use the same electric architecture developed for its consumer electric pedal-assist bike and commercial electric delivery quad.

Prysm Capital co-founder and managing partner Jay Park said the firm is backing Also for the same reason it was an early investor in Rivian.

“We backed Rivian early because we saw the potential behind wonderfully designed, vertically integrated electric trucks, vans and SUVs,” Park said, adding that Also us applying that same approach to smaller form factor vehicles.

The fresh funding comes a few months since Also raised $200 million in a round led by Greenoaks, with participation from Prysm Capital and a strategic investment from DoorDash. As part of that funding round, DoorDash struck a multi-year commercial agreement to develop and deploy autonomous delivery vehicles.

While Also is increasingly focused on autonomous vehicle tech, that’s not where it started. Also began as a skunkworks project within Rivian, a pursuit driven by founder and CEO RJ Scaringe’s interest in micromobility. That team, which pulled in people from Apple, Google, Specialized, Tesla, evolved into a startup, which spun out of Rivian in 2025 armed with the name Also and $150 million in funding.

While Also is independent, Rivian is still very much tied to it. Rivian holds a minority stake, and Scaringe serves on its board. Also has previously said it will leverage the automaker’s tech, retail presence, and economies of scale as it grows.

Last October, Also revealed its first products, a $4,500 two-wheeler called the TM-B and two quad vehicles as well, one of which will be supplied to Amazon.

Also has struggled to get its ebike into customers’ hands and its launch edition was delayed for months. The company said the Launch edition is now beginning to ship to customers and has opened up the pre-order and configuration access to its performance and standard models. The company said initial deliveries of these other models will begin in fall.

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.

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Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) stock is down 25% year to date (YTD) as of Friday’s close, a slide that stands out inside the electric vehicle cohort even as the broader autonomous and electric vehicle basket has climbed. Rivian shares are sliding again Monday afternoon, down 3% to $14.90.

The options market is priced for calm. Rivian’s worst peak-to-trough fall over the past year was 43%, and yet Rivian stock was up 27% over the past year through Friday’s close. The bigger tension inside the story is that management raised the delivery guide while loading the year into a single quarter of a first-time ramp.

The first-half margin picture leaned on a large slug of regulatory credit revenue that is now set to vanish. That’s the core of the bear case, and it belongs high in the story.

The Credits That Vanish CFO Claire McDonough confirmed on the July 30 call that Rivian booked “$164 million of regulatory credits that benefited our gross profit outlook in the first half.” Those credits largely disappear in the second half of 2026, and McDonough pointed to their absence as “the bigger driver” of a steeper second-half EBITDA loss.

Rivian’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guide improved by $50 million at the midpoint, and the delivery outlook rose by 3,000 units. Some of that improvement itself leaned on second-quarter credits and a tariff refund booked inside cost of goods, so the H2 setup is less forgiving than the guide raise suggests.

The Back-Loaded Year Management now targets 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles for the year across R1, R2 and the commercial van, which implies 42,400 to 47,400 deliveries in the second half against roughly 22,600 delivered in the first half. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2 2026. COO Javier Varela stated the second shift at the Normal, Illinois plant will “not be expecting any material contribution to volumes” in the third quarter, with the lift arriving in the fourth.

The progress underneath is real. Rivian’s automotive gross loss narrowed from $62 million in Q1 2026 to $36 million in Q2, and cost of goods per vehicle fell roughly $5,000 from Q1 to Q2 once $100 million of R2 ramp cost is excluded. McDonough reiterated that Rivian expects R2 to “achieve a positive gross profit as part of our exit rate for 2026.”

The R2 Trim Problem and Factory Math R2 launched with a $58,000 Launch Edition, the priciest variant in the line, with premium and standard trims arriving “early 2027.” CEO RJ Scaringe stated conversion rates on the Launch Edition are running “meaningfully higher than what we expected,” and non-converters mostly cite the missing trims. The constraint is cost.

R2, R1 and the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) delivery vans share the Normal plant, and Rivian’s trailing twelve month revenue sits at $5.9 billion. A plant-level margin flip against that base would be a step change rather than an increment.

Autonomy: Half the Price, Not Yet the Capability Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock was down 24% YTD through Friday’s close, and shares are trading down 0.6% to $340.37 Monday. Tesla remains the largest EV maker and the benchmark for autonomy software.

CNBC testing found Tesla’s FSD handled highway and city routes with little intervention, while Rivian’s Autonomy+ still requires driver input for some maneuvers and cannot change lanes on its own. Rivian prices Autonomy+ at $49.99 per month against Tesla’s FSD subscription at $99 per month, a genuine high-margin opportunity that is not yet proven recurring revenue.

Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) stock was down 41% YTD through Friday’s close, a far steeper decline than Rivian’s. Lucid shares are down 0.2% to $6.21 Monday. The premium EV maker’s slide illustrates the broader stress on pure-play manufacturers.

The ETF Angle The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) had gained 22% YTD through Friday’s close, in stark contrast to declines across all three pure-play EV makers.

The gains are coming from elsewhere in the supply chain, since a broad autonomous and electric vehicle basket holds far more than automakers themselves. The ETF is a narrow thematic fund with meaningful concentration risk, and it is not leveraged.

What to Watch Implied volatility on Rivian sits at 53, the sixth percentile of its trailing-year range, so the options market is priced for calm ahead of a high-stakes earnings report. Investors can watch for whether fourth-quarter deliveries land inside the 42,400 to 47,400 second-half range and whether the second shift adds volume on schedule.

The next markers are whether automotive gross profit turns positive exiting 2026 without regulatory credits, whether point-to-point driving launches this year, and whether Autonomy+ subscriptions begin converting into disclosed recurring revenue. The Q3 2026 earnings report will do most of the talking.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

DETROIT — What's the best advanced driver-assistance system on the market? Ask Rivian Automotive's new artificial intelligence and it will say its creator.

"Rivian's is truly exceptional … an unmatched blend of safety and technology," the chatbot told me during hourslong drives in one of its R1T pickup trucks in which the vehicle largely controlled itself on several Midwest highways.

While the Rivian AI bot may be biased, that's exactly the company's goal with a new generation of vehicle software and technologies: to be the best. Rivian is trying to catch up to — and then surpass — Tesla's FSD (Supervised) capabilities, but with additional safety guardrails that the Elon Musk company doesn't use.

Based on recent drives totaling hundreds of miles, Rivian's Autonomy+ has surpassed legacy competitors such as General Motors' Super Cruise with its ADAS. But it's still playing catch up to Tesla's FSD when it comes to nonhighway driving and point-to-point driving, where a vehicle is designed to navigate itself from start to finish. I drove a recent version of FSD (Supervised) v14 to compare the technology.

Rivian expects to deliver point-to-point driving later this year but, for now, its system is a giant leap forward for the company compared with what it previously offered and is clearly laying the groundwork to better compete with Tesla.

"That's the next step," said James Philbin, senior vice president of autonomy and AI at Rivian. "Tesla's system you use is a point-to-point system. So that that's the next big leap for us in a way, is getting to that same point-to-point type interaction and that system where it really does the full driving task."

To be clear, no vehicle on sale today is self-driving or autonomous. Drivers always need to pay attention and be ready to take over. Many advanced driver-assistance systems, or ADAS, can control a vehicle's speed, braking and steering using cameras, sensors and/or mapping data. An increasing amount of systems allow humans to take their hands off the wheel when in use.

Rivian credits its improvements with its push toward vertical integration that included a new generation of software and electric architecture for its vehicles. It's just beginning to reap the benefits with its ADAS.

The technologies also are increasingly more important to drivers and investors, which are targeting ADAS as growth markets with recurring revenue for automakers.

"We favor self-reliant (and properly-valued) companies that are building next-gen machines using in-house expertise," Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in an investor note upgrading Rivian's stock last month. "As volume rises, Rivian should be better able to monetize software & services, a key benefit of vertical integration."

The systems vary in pricing but can be initially included in a vehicle's purchase or bought via subscriptions. Tesla's system is currently $99 a month, according to its website. Rivian's is $49.99 a month or $2,500 to purchase for the lifetime of a vehicle. GM's is $39.99 a month or $399 a year.

Rivian vs. TeslaThe biggest operational difference between ADAS technologies from Tesla and Rivian is their ability to control the vehicle on nonhighway streets with traffic lights and signs.

Rivian's system currently detects those roadway signals, but it does not do anything about them other than alert the driver that they are coming. Meanwhile, Tesla's system handled every signal, interchange and exit ramp I encountered for nearly 200 miles in rural Michigan and downtown Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Based on a decade of experience driving with hands-free ADAS, those two technologies are by far the most advanced. This has not always been the case.

GM, not Tesla, led the development of hands-free highway systems with its Super Cruise, which I initially tested a year before its debut in 2017. But America's largest automaker was slow to roll it out on new vehicles or significantly grow its capabilities other than expanding geographies and making it able to do lane changes.

Ford Motor also quickly caught up to GM on highways, but both continue to lack systems that are capable of hands-free driving on nonhighways. The two automakers are working on that type of technology, including so-called eyes-off capabilities, but they are not expected until 2028.

It's a difficult leap, as Tesla's in-vehicle Grok AI told me during nearly 200 miles of driving in a 2025 Tesla Model Y: "Highways have predictable lanes, speed, fewer pedestrians and clear markings, making sensor fusion and path prediction simpler. City streets bring chaos, intersections, bikes, peds, construction and ambiguous rules that challenge even top AI vision systems."

Challenging for some more than others. During my drives in the Model Y, the vehicle was essentially controlling itself for multiple hours and dozens of miles without intervention on highway and nonhighway roads.

It somewhat effortlessly handled several traffic circles, also known as roundabouts, and parked for me multiple times when arriving at or near destinations, including parallel parking. It also managed a semitruck blocking half a lane on a two-lane road as well as pretty complex construction zones, with Tesla's ADAS sensing each barrel or cone.

The Rivian technology handled highway driving very well with no intervention outside of exit ramps and, at times, construction zones. It also isn't able to change lanes on its own yet, which the company promises is coming soon.

When I asked Rivian about several of my experiences, the company said its vehicles can detect construction objects but it does not always display them on the in-vehicle screen. Its system also still needs assistance in certain locations, such as roundabouts.

Read more CNBC auto newsGM to launch proprietary in-vehicle AI system later this yearWhy Ford believes its 10.2% July U.S. sales decline was still a ‘good’ monthAre Americans ready to embrace tiny 'cars'? These companies think soFerrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debutSafety concerns remainAll ADAS technologies — except a Mercedes-Benz system in limited circumstances — still need drivers to monitor the systems, even if they can largely control the vehicle without human intervention for hundreds of miles.

With the rise of "hands-off" technology, industry insiders and regular people alike have raised concerns about driver inattentiveness. Automakers have been largely trying to fight that with driver-facing cameras. But concerns remain about the ADAS handover back to a driver as well as on people over-relying on the systems.

YouTube is filled with examples of drivers misusing such systems, particularly Tesla products, as well as videos of ADAS doing human-like moves but also malfunctioning and needing assistance.

The handover from ADAS to humans can be abrupt and lead to dire circumstances if drivers aren't attentive enough to immediately retake control of the vehicle.

There's also little regulation for the systems, with each company taking different approaches.

"I hope that we can even exceed the Tesla system because of our investments in a more robust sensor stack," Rivian's Philbin said. "We're actually a big believer in multimodal imaging, so cameras and radars, and later on, early next year, lidar as well on the R2."

Rivian's system uses at least 10 high dynamic range cameras, five radars and some map data to assist the vehicle in "seeing" the road. It's also expected to launch vehicles with lidar, or light detection and ranging, that improves a vehicle's "sight." Tesla's system relies on cameras and a "vision-based" setup that some have criticized for not being robust enough, especially under certain conditions.

Tesla's partially automated driving systems have been under scrutiny for many years. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration earlier this year said it was escalating a probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) after identifying several crashes, including one fatal incident in which the system failed to alert drivers appropriately about reduced-visibility conditions, such as sun glare or fog.

Philbin said it's those types of circumstances where noncamera technology, including lidar, can better detect potential hazards and objects. My drives were on clear days without any inclement weather.

Still, despite not having many sensors, Tesla's Grok chatbot — developed by Musk's xAI, which merged with SpaceX earlier this year — also felt its brand has the superior system, which is true for many driving situations, at least for now.

"Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is widely rated as the top advanced driver assistance system in 2026 by sources like Motor Trend and others," Grok AI said. It later added, "Rivian's AI Assistant is solid for voice controls, navigation, and vehicle features in their R1 vehicles, but it's still catching up to more advanced systems like ours and full self-driving capabilities."

As of this writing, Rivian (RIVN +4.03%) stock sits at about $16, giving the company a market value of about $23 billion. For that price, investors get an electric vehicle maker that will deliver perhaps 70,000 vehicles this year, still loses money on them at the gross level, and just started shipping the product its whole investment case rests on.

That last part is why the next three years matter so much. The R2, a smaller and more affordable SUV than Rivian's first models, began reaching customers on June 9. Whether the stock is higher or lower in 2029 comes down to how many R2s the company builds -- and what each one earns.

Image source: Rivian.

The business the R2 is supposed to change Rivian's second-quarter report, released July 30, showed a company heading into the ramp with momentum. Revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.66 billion, and deliveries climbed 14% to 12,194 vehicles, well above the 9,000 to 11,000 management had forecast. That outperformance led the company to raise its full-year delivery outlook to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, from 62,000 to 67,000.

The profit picture is improving, too, though from a low base. Consolidated gross profit came in at $179 million in the second quarter, an 11% margin.

However, the automotive segment itself ran a $36 million gross loss. That's a dramatic improvement from the $335 million automotive gross loss of a year earlier -- helped in part by regulatory credit revenue -- and management said the quarter absorbed approximately $100 million of incremental costs from ramping R2 production. Strip those out, and the vehicle business would have been modestly profitable at the gross level.

What actually carried the quarter was software and services. The segment generated $515 million in revenue, up 37% year over year, with $215 million of gross profit, a 42% margin.

The commercial side keeps scaling, too. Amazon now has more than 40,000 Rivian electric delivery vans on the road.

Still, Rivian remains deeply unprofitable overall. The company expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss of $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion, and it plans capital spending of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion this year. A $5.3 billion pile of cash and short-term investments at the end of June, since topped up by a stock sale in early July, is what funds the ramp.

The math three years out So, what could the business look like in 2029?

Rivian says its two U.S. plants (Normal, Illinois, today, plus a Georgia site backed by a Department of Energy loan of up to $4.5 billion) support capacity growth to as much as 515,000 vehicles per year in later phases. I wouldn't model anything close to full utilization by 2029. But a path from about 70,000 deliveries to somewhere near 200,000 over three years relies on expansion the company is already building, not on new ideas.

Suppose that volume arrives. At an assumed blended price of around $60,000 (R2s at the lower end of the lineup, R1s and commercial vans above it), 200,000 vehicles would produce automotive revenue near $12 billion. Add a software and services business compounding at anything like its current 37% rate, and total revenue could reach $17 billion or so, against about $6.6 billion annualized today.

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On that math, today's market value works out to about 1.4 times that future revenue -- not a demanding multiple, if the vehicles earn money by then.

That "if" is, to me, the entire investment case. A carmaker that still loses money on its vehicles at 70,000 units has to prove that volume fixes the problem. Management's case is that shared production lines in Normal spread fixed costs across more vehicles as R2 scales. The second half of this year offers the first evidence either way.

The downside is just as easy to sketch, though. EV demand can wobble, and ramps can slip. A company running an adjusted EBITDA loss near $2 billion a year has less room for error than its cash balance suggests -- and Rivian priced a 75 million-share stock offering as recently as early July.

My answer to the three-year question: The stock could be meaningfully higher if R2 volume shows up with a real gross margin attached, because the current valuation arguably isn't pricing in much success. But this remains a speculative stock, not a proven business. I'd treat it accordingly -- and only with money I could afford to see shrink.

The robotaxi industry is still in the early stages, but it could expand rapidly over the next decade. Investors are tipping several companies to emerge as leaders in this market, including Alphabet (GOOG -4.05%) (GOOGL -4.03%), which owns Waymo, and Tesla (TSLA -1.77%), which has ramped up its fleet of robotaxis over the past year. However, Rivian (RIVN -1.27%), an electric vehicle (EV) maker, could be a surprise winner in this industry, given the deal it signed with Uber Technologies (UBER -5.29%) earlier this year. Here's why investors shouldn't discount Rivian's chances in the race to the top in the robotaxi market.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A wide range of possible outcomes In March, Rivian agreed to deliver up to 50,000 autonomous units of its new R2 models to Uber through 2030. In exchange, Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, including $550 million this year. This is a great deal for Rivian for several reasons. First, the company receives a substantial cash infusion that will help it achieve certain goals. Notably, the EV maker needs to train its self-driving software and achieve full autonomy (at least in certain regions) with its R2 for this partnership to be as lucrative as possible.

That will require some work and some money. And if Rivian can achieve full autonomy in time, it will likely have a positive impact on its business beyond its deal with Uber. It could increase demand for its cars among other large corporations or generate higher recurring revenue from self-driving software subscriptions. Second, Uber is one of the leading ride-hailing platforms. It benefits from a strong brand name, a large user ecosystem, and a deep moat due to network effects.

Uber could leverage these advantages to quickly scale its robotaxi service. If Uber's robotaxis become very popular, the company may order even more EVs from Rivian.

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But what happens if Rivian fails to achieve full autonomy in time? The company's shares will likely fall off a cliff. The good news is that Rivian is finally delivering its R2 to customers, and the more of them it has on the road, the more data it will have to train its self-driving software. The R2 has a much more approachable price than Rivian's previous models and is a direct competitor to Tesla's Model Y, the best-selling car in the world (EV or not) for three years running.

Higher sales volume may more than offset the lower per-unit price of the R2, leading to steady revenue growth for Rivian over the next few years. Rivian is also expanding its manufacturing footprint. These efforts may help the company achieve lower per-unit manufacturing costs and help boost its margins. However, if the R2 flops, the company's shares will plummet. So, Rivian's medium-term outlook hinges on several things going just right. If they do, expect strong returns. If they don't, the stock will underperform broader equities. Investors should keep that in mind before initiating a position.

Key Takeaways Rivian began external R2 deliveries in June, with Launch Edition conversions above expectations.RIVN plans a second R2 shift by quarter-end, with added volume mainly expected in the fourth quarter.Rivian raised its 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 vehicles despite ongoing cost pressures. Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) framed the second quarter of 2026 as the start of its R2-led growth phase, with early demand running ahead of internal expectations.

The call also centered on manufacturing discipline, launch costs and the fourth-quarter production level needed to move R2 toward positive gross profit. Management said the outcome depends on matching demand with supplier readiness and cost absorption.

Rivian Sets R2 as the Core Growth EngineFounder and CEO Robert Scaringe said external R2 deliveries began in June and that more than 57,000 demo drives set a company record.

Robert Scaringe said reservation-to-order conversion for the $58,000 Launch Edition was meaningfully above expectations, with a significant number of first-time electric-vehicle buyers. He said buyers came from a broad range of brands and vehicle types.

In the Q&A session, Scaringe told a Needham analyst that most non-converting customers were waiting for other configurations, including premium and standard trims, due in early 2027.

RIVN Maps a Back-Half Production RampChief operations officer Javier Varela said Rivian expects to add a second R2 shift by the end of the third quarter, but its volume contribution should arrive mainly in the fourth quarter.

Scaringe identified supplier readiness as the main constraint, noting that production can be limited by the slowest vendor.

Scaringe said fewer build combinations, limited color choices and extensive validation builds make the R2 launch more controlled than the R1 rollout.

Rivian Defends Its Margin PathChief financial officer Claire McDonough reaffirmed that R2 should reach positive gross profit at Rivian’s 2026 exit rate as higher output improves fixed-cost absorption.

Automotive gross loss narrowed to $36 million despite about $100 million of incremental R2 ramp costs, including expedited freight, temporary supplier premiums and unabsorbed expenses. Software and Services produced $215 million of gross profit at a 42% margin.

When a UBS analyst pressed on breakeven volume, McDonough said fourth-quarter production provides a reasonable near-term benchmark for normalized costs, though R2 will not be fully ramped.

RIVN Raises 2026 Guidance Amid Cost PressureRIVN raised 2026 delivery guidance by 3,000 units to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, implying 42,400 to 47,400 second-half deliveries weighted toward the fourth quarter.

McDonough said adjusted EBITDA loss guidance improved to $1.8-$2 billion, while capital spending guidance fell to $1.7-$1.8 billion.

McDonough said regulatory-credit revenues and higher volumes supported the outlook, while raw-material, memory and logistics costs remain offset. Third-quarter automotive gross profit will face a full quarter of R2 ramp costs before scale benefits emerge.

Rivian Links Autonomy to Future RevenuesScaringe said point-to-point assisted driving remains targeted for year-end, followed by hands-off, eyes-off capability in 2027 and Level 4 functionality in 2028.

Scaringe said Autonomy+ take rates are trending positively, and expanded features could support higher pricing, though management did not disclose adoption levels.

McDonough expects autonomy spending to rise in the second half, driven mainly by GPU sourcing for model training. Scaringe said RAP1 and third-generation autonomy hardware remain on track for late 2026.

RIVN Keeps Execution at the ForefrontScaringe and McDonough combined confidence in R2 demand with caution regarding supplier performance, second-shift readiness and the third-quarter cost burden. The operating agenda remains tightly tied to R2.

The company reported a loss of 47 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 65 cents. Revenues of $1.65 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.59 billion, while consolidated gross margin reached 11%.

What the Zacks Signals SayRIVN carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The framework reserves its strongest near-term combinations for Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) stocks paired with A or B Style Scores. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

RIVN’s Growth Score of B and Momentum Score of B are favorable, while the Value Score of F and VGM Score of D weaken the combined style profile. The Zacks Rank can change as analyst estimates are revised after the just-reported results.

Rivian Automotive stock is surging to new heights today. Why are RIVN shares rallying? Q2 Loss Narrows On Strong Revenue GrowthRivian reported a loss per share of 63 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 74 cents loss. In addition, it reported revenue of $1.65 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.50 billion.

Consolidated revenue rose 27% year-over-year, driven by a 14% increase in delivery volumes and strong performance from the company’s software and services segment. Gross profit came in at $179 million, a $385 million improvement over the same quarter last year. Net loss attributable to common stockholders narrowed to $837 million from $1.115 billion in the prior-year period.

R2 SUV Rollout Sparks Optimism Despite Ongoing LossesRivian began external deliveries of its R2 SUV on June 9 and hosted more than 57,000 demo drives during the quarter, a company record. The company ended the quarter with approximately $5.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.

“This quarter we began external deliveries of R2. I believe R2 will be a game changer for our customers and a driver of Rivian’s long-term growth and profitability,” said RJ Scaringe, Rivian Founder and CEO.

Rivian Shares Edge HigherRIVN Price Action: At the time of publication, Rivian shares are trading 3.15% higher at $17.36, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.47 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.65. This compares to a loss of $0.8 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +27.69%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars would post a loss of $0.6 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.55, delivering a surprise of +8.33%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Rivian Automotive, which belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, posted revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.25%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.3 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Rivian Automotive shares have lost about 17.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 6.9%.

What's Next for Rivian Automotive?While Rivian Automotive has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Rivian Automotive was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.65 on $1.96 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and -$2.37 on $7.19 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Automotive - Domestic is currently in the top 38% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, Xos, Inc. (XOS - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.

This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.60 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +34.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Xos, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $12.14 million, down 34% from the year-ago quarter.

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Rivian Automotive reduced its 2026 spending plans and slightly narrowed its previously forecasted losses this year as the company reported second-quarter results Thursday.

The revised guidance now includes adjusted losses between $1.8 billion and $2 billion, down from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, and capital expenditures of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion, down from $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion. It reconfirmed a previously raised delivery target of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles to customers.

Rivian said the $250 million reduction in capital spending at the mid-point was enabled by "project efficiencies and timing of spend," which the automaker previously increased to allow for added investments in new technologies such as its hands-free driving system.

Here's how Rivian performed in the second quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:

Loss per share: 47 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 63 cents expectedRevenue: $1.66 billion vs. $1.51 billion expectedThe company's gross profit, which is closely watched by investors, was $179 million compared to a loss of $206 million a year earlier. That included a $36 million loss for its automotive segment and a $215 million profit for its software and services division.

Rivian's second-quarter revenue included $1.14 billion from automotive and $515 million from software and services. The results were slightly higher than its pre-released second-quarter revenue expectations of between $1.55 billion and $1.65 billion that were released last month in conjunction with disclosing a public offering of 75 million shares of its Class A common stock.

Automotive revenue increased 23% year-over-year, primarily due to a 14% increase in vehicle deliveries and a $103 million increase in revenues related to regulatory credits, the company said.

Rivian's net loss attributable to common stockholders during the second quarter was $837 million, or 63 cents a share, a $278 million, or 34 cent per share, improvement compared with the second quarter of 2025.

Rivian previously said the raised delivery guidance was driven by higher deliveries during the second quarter of its electric delivery van and flagship R1 products.

The company also started delivering its midsize R2 SUV during the quarter. It's ramping up production of that vehicle at its sole production plant in Normal, Illinois, which has capacity to produce 160,000 of the vehicles annually.

"Incredibly excited with R2 now getting into customers' hands, and the overall feedback and response to the product has just been outstanding," Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC's Phil LeBeau on Thursday. "And so, of course, that's a major step for us on our path to profitability."

Scaringe has said Rivian will reach profitability this year on a per-unit production basis with the R2, a smaller and less expensive sibling to its current luxury R1s SUV. But he said the company needs more scale than the 160,000 units already planned for the vehicle at its current plant in Normal, Illinois, to achieve profitability.

Rivian on Thursday reconfirmed its cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments balance was an estimated $5.3 billion, up from $4.8 billion to end the first quarter.

The company said later this year it expects to receive $1 billion in non-recourse debt financing from its software deal with Volkswagen Group and an additional $250 million equity investment from a separate partnership with Uber.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -0.79%) will next report earnings post-market on Thursday, July 30. Shares in the electric vehicle (EV) company have traded sideways in recent months. Will this upcoming event drive the next big move for shares?

I wouldn't bet on it. After all, Rivian already reported delivery numbers earlier this month for the preceding quarter. Barring major changes to guidance or the company's efforts to scale up production of its lower-priced R2 line of vehicles, it's questionable whether earnings represent a turning point for this electric car stock.

That said, for long-term growth stocks like this one, it's best to stay focused on the big picture, rather than near-term volatility.

Image source: Getty Images.

Rivian Automotive Q2 2026 earnings preview Again, investors aren't completely in the dark about how Rivian performed during the quarter ending June 30, 2026. On July 2, the EV maker released its Q2 2026 production and delivery figures. In Q2, Rivian produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 vehicles.

These figures exceeded its prior delivery outlook of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles, largely thanks to the successful launch of the aforementioned R2 vehicle line. Alongside strong delivery figures, management also raised its full-year delivery guidance from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles.

While this may give credence to analyst forecasts calling for a 20% jump in sales during Q2 -- from $1.3 billion to around $1.56 billion -- it's unclear what increased deliveries mean for the bottom line. Per the same analyst forecasts, Rivian is expected to report GAAP losses of $0.78 per share for Q2 2026.

However, as GAAP losses came in far narrower than expected in Q1 2026, with reported losses of $0.30 per share versus a consensus of $0.72 per share, I wouldn't rule out the potential for positive surprises. The same could play out, with any updates to Rivian's full-year financial outlook.

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The best move with this EV stock Even if Rivian reports something surprising, such as far lower-than-expected losses or materially improved full-year guidance, it may not have the bullish impact on shares you might expect. For one, uncertainty about this stock goes beyond whether it can continue to scale up into a profitable automaker.

Whether improved results spark a rebound is another question entirely. As Rivian relies on the dilutive sale of newly issued shares to fund expansion, an increased share count could water down the positive impact of reaching profitability. Investors are still digesting Rivian's recent $1.5 billion capital raise.

Further tapping into this dilutive funding source puts pressure on both areas in the near term while limiting long-term upside. As this key risk persists, existing investors should hold on but wait for further developments regarding growth funding before increasing their positions. Those who have yet to buy Rivian shares may also want to wait until management answers these questions, rather than chasing this automotive stock after a post-earnings rally or pullback.