Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.15%) has some big goals. It delivered 22,559 electric vehicles in the first half of 2026. To reach its full-year target, it must deliver another 42,400 to 47,400 vehicles in the second half.

This would require about 88% to 110% more deliveries than in the first half. Management also expects vehicle deliveries to be weighted toward the fourth quarter as R2 production ramps.

Let's see if Rivian can deliver.

Image source: Getty Images.

R2 needs a scale to become profitable Rivian began delivering the R2, an affordable mid-size SUV, to customers on June 9. However, R2 is currently hurting Rivian's profitability as production ramps. In Q2, Rivian recorded about $100 million of additional costs related to the launch. The company's automotive business posted a $36 million gross loss. Rivian expects higher R2 production and deliveries to help its automotive business reach positive gross profit by 2026's end.

Part of the $100 million in extra R2 costs is from temporary expenses such as faster shipping and higher payments to suppliers. Rivian expects costs to decline as production rises. Higher output should also help spread factory costs across more vehicles, improving profitability.

Rivian expects the cost of R2's materials and components to be about half that of R1, while other production costs should fall by more than 50%. This is based on Rivian's expected average vehicle costs at the end of 2027.

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The fourth quarter will be the real test for R2 Rivian's biggest near-term focus is getting suppliers ready for higher volumes. It started R2 production on one shift, while the second shift is not expected to add significant volume until the fourth quarter.

Rivian is also testing demand at the higher price end of the R2 lineup. The R2 Performance starts at $57,990, while the lower-priced $44,990 Standard model will not arrive until 2027.

The fourth quarter should show whether the R2 ramp is improving Rivian's economics. Deliveries need to rise sharply, but losses per vehicle also need to narrow. Otherwise, higher volumes alone will not make the ramp successful.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rivian (RIVN.O) CFO Claire McDonough has decided to leave the company to join GE Vernova (GEV.N) in the same role, ​just as the electric vehicle maker ramps up rollout of its ‌more affordable SUVs amid fragile EV demand in the U.S.

McDonough will join GE Vernova later this year and take on the CFO role at the beginning of 2027, succeeding the retiring Ken Parks, ​the company said.

Parks joined the power equipment maker ahead of its 2024 spin-off from ​General Electric (GE.N) and helped build its financial infrastructure as a ⁠standalone public firm.

McDonough, a former banker with JPMorgan and Credit Suisse, joined ​Irvine, California-based Rivian early in 2021 and took the company through its initial ​public offering.

She played a key role in the launch of Rivian's flagship R1T pickups and R1S SUVs, while leading cost-cutting and fundraising efforts as the company races to build a ​new plant, develop self-driving technology and aims to turn profitable.

Her exit comes ​at a crucial time for Rivian. The company started delivering its lower-priced R2 SUVs in ‌June ⁠and raised its annual delivery forecast last month, buoyed by optimism over the vehicles that are seen as critical to the company's success.

Shares of Rivian were down more than 1% in extended trading.

McDonough will help with the transition and step ​down at the ​end of October, ⁠Rivian said, adding that the search for her replacement was underway. The company's vice president of finance, Derek Mulvey, ​is expected to take over in the interim.

At GE Vernova, she will ​be tasked ⁠with boosting profitability at a time when rapid AI data center expansion is driving strong demand for gas turbines and grid equipment. The company, however, is ⁠seeing widening ​losses in its wind energy business amid weak ​onshore demand and higher project costs.

Also has raised another $150 million as the micromobility startup that spun out of Rivian last year expands its business beyond pedal-assist electric bikes and commercial cargo quads to autonomous delivery vehicles.

The Series D round was led by Prysm Capital and included existing backers Eclipse, Greenoaks, and MVP Ventures. Also has raised $455 million since its founding less than two years ago.

The new capital will be used to “accelerate the development” of the company’s autonomous driving technology and the “simultaneous progression of multiple autonomous form factors,” according to the company. These future vehicles will use the same electric architecture developed for its consumer electric pedal-assist bike and commercial electric delivery quad.

Prysm Capital co-founder and managing partner Jay Park said the firm is backing Also for the same reason it was an early investor in Rivian.

“We backed Rivian early because we saw the potential behind wonderfully designed, vertically integrated electric trucks, vans and SUVs,” Park said, adding that Also us applying that same approach to smaller form factor vehicles.

The fresh funding comes a few months since Also raised $200 million in a round led by Greenoaks, with participation from Prysm Capital and a strategic investment from DoorDash. As part of that funding round, DoorDash struck a multi-year commercial agreement to develop and deploy autonomous delivery vehicles.

While Also is increasingly focused on autonomous vehicle tech, that’s not where it started. Also began as a skunkworks project within Rivian, a pursuit driven by founder and CEO RJ Scaringe’s interest in micromobility. That team, which pulled in people from Apple, Google, Specialized, Tesla, evolved into a startup, which spun out of Rivian in 2025 armed with the name Also and $150 million in funding.

While Also is independent, Rivian is still very much tied to it. Rivian holds a minority stake, and Scaringe serves on its board. Also has previously said it will leverage the automaker’s tech, retail presence, and economies of scale as it grows.

Last October, Also revealed its first products, a $4,500 two-wheeler called the TM-B and two quad vehicles as well, one of which will be supplied to Amazon.

Also has struggled to get its ebike into customers’ hands and its launch edition was delayed for months. The company said the Launch edition is now beginning to ship to customers and has opened up the pre-order and configuration access to its performance and standard models. The company said initial deliveries of these other models will begin in fall.

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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.

You can contact or verify outreach from Kirsten by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at kkorosec.07 on Signal.

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Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) stock is down 25% year to date (YTD) as of Friday’s close, a slide that stands out inside the electric vehicle cohort even as the broader autonomous and electric vehicle basket has climbed. Rivian shares are sliding again Monday afternoon, down 3% to $14.90.

The options market is priced for calm. Rivian’s worst peak-to-trough fall over the past year was 43%, and yet Rivian stock was up 27% over the past year through Friday’s close. The bigger tension inside the story is that management raised the delivery guide while loading the year into a single quarter of a first-time ramp.

The first-half margin picture leaned on a large slug of regulatory credit revenue that is now set to vanish. That’s the core of the bear case, and it belongs high in the story.

The Credits That Vanish CFO Claire McDonough confirmed on the July 30 call that Rivian booked “$164 million of regulatory credits that benefited our gross profit outlook in the first half.” Those credits largely disappear in the second half of 2026, and McDonough pointed to their absence as “the bigger driver” of a steeper second-half EBITDA loss.

Rivian’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guide improved by $50 million at the midpoint, and the delivery outlook rose by 3,000 units. Some of that improvement itself leaned on second-quarter credits and a tariff refund booked inside cost of goods, so the H2 setup is less forgiving than the guide raise suggests.

The Back-Loaded Year Management now targets 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles for the year across R1, R2 and the commercial van, which implies 42,400 to 47,400 deliveries in the second half against roughly 22,600 delivered in the first half. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2 2026. COO Javier Varela stated the second shift at the Normal, Illinois plant will “not be expecting any material contribution to volumes” in the third quarter, with the lift arriving in the fourth.

The progress underneath is real. Rivian’s automotive gross loss narrowed from $62 million in Q1 2026 to $36 million in Q2, and cost of goods per vehicle fell roughly $5,000 from Q1 to Q2 once $100 million of R2 ramp cost is excluded. McDonough reiterated that Rivian expects R2 to “achieve a positive gross profit as part of our exit rate for 2026.”

The R2 Trim Problem and Factory Math R2 launched with a $58,000 Launch Edition, the priciest variant in the line, with premium and standard trims arriving “early 2027.” CEO RJ Scaringe stated conversion rates on the Launch Edition are running “meaningfully higher than what we expected,” and non-converters mostly cite the missing trims. The constraint is cost.

R2, R1 and the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) delivery vans share the Normal plant, and Rivian’s trailing twelve month revenue sits at $5.9 billion. A plant-level margin flip against that base would be a step change rather than an increment.

Autonomy: Half the Price, Not Yet the Capability Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock was down 24% YTD through Friday’s close, and shares are trading down 0.6% to $340.37 Monday. Tesla remains the largest EV maker and the benchmark for autonomy software.

CNBC testing found Tesla’s FSD handled highway and city routes with little intervention, while Rivian’s Autonomy+ still requires driver input for some maneuvers and cannot change lanes on its own. Rivian prices Autonomy+ at $49.99 per month against Tesla’s FSD subscription at $99 per month, a genuine high-margin opportunity that is not yet proven recurring revenue.

Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) stock was down 41% YTD through Friday’s close, a far steeper decline than Rivian’s. Lucid shares are down 0.2% to $6.21 Monday. The premium EV maker’s slide illustrates the broader stress on pure-play manufacturers.

The ETF Angle The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) had gained 22% YTD through Friday’s close, in stark contrast to declines across all three pure-play EV makers.

The gains are coming from elsewhere in the supply chain, since a broad autonomous and electric vehicle basket holds far more than automakers themselves. The ETF is a narrow thematic fund with meaningful concentration risk, and it is not leveraged.

What to Watch Implied volatility on Rivian sits at 53, the sixth percentile of its trailing-year range, so the options market is priced for calm ahead of a high-stakes earnings report. Investors can watch for whether fourth-quarter deliveries land inside the 42,400 to 47,400 second-half range and whether the second shift adds volume on schedule.

The next markers are whether automotive gross profit turns positive exiting 2026 without regulatory credits, whether point-to-point driving launches this year, and whether Autonomy+ subscriptions begin converting into disclosed recurring revenue. The Q3 2026 earnings report will do most of the talking.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

DETROIT — What's the best advanced driver-assistance system on the market? Ask Rivian Automotive's new artificial intelligence and it will say its creator.

"Rivian's is truly exceptional … an unmatched blend of safety and technology," the chatbot told me during hourslong drives in one of its R1T pickup trucks in which the vehicle largely controlled itself on several Midwest highways.

While the Rivian AI bot may be biased, that's exactly the company's goal with a new generation of vehicle software and technologies: to be the best. Rivian is trying to catch up to — and then surpass — Tesla's FSD (Supervised) capabilities, but with additional safety guardrails that the Elon Musk company doesn't use.

Based on recent drives totaling hundreds of miles, Rivian's Autonomy+ has surpassed legacy competitors such as General Motors' Super Cruise with its ADAS. But it's still playing catch up to Tesla's FSD when it comes to nonhighway driving and point-to-point driving, where a vehicle is designed to navigate itself from start to finish. I drove a recent version of FSD (Supervised) v14 to compare the technology.

Rivian expects to deliver point-to-point driving later this year but, for now, its system is a giant leap forward for the company compared with what it previously offered and is clearly laying the groundwork to better compete with Tesla.

"That's the next step," said James Philbin, senior vice president of autonomy and AI at Rivian. "Tesla's system you use is a point-to-point system. So that that's the next big leap for us in a way, is getting to that same point-to-point type interaction and that system where it really does the full driving task."

To be clear, no vehicle on sale today is self-driving or autonomous. Drivers always need to pay attention and be ready to take over. Many advanced driver-assistance systems, or ADAS, can control a vehicle's speed, braking and steering using cameras, sensors and/or mapping data. An increasing amount of systems allow humans to take their hands off the wheel when in use.

Rivian credits its improvements with its push toward vertical integration that included a new generation of software and electric architecture for its vehicles. It's just beginning to reap the benefits with its ADAS.

The technologies also are increasingly more important to drivers and investors, which are targeting ADAS as growth markets with recurring revenue for automakers.

"We favor self-reliant (and properly-valued) companies that are building next-gen machines using in-house expertise," Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in an investor note upgrading Rivian's stock last month. "As volume rises, Rivian should be better able to monetize software & services, a key benefit of vertical integration."

The systems vary in pricing but can be initially included in a vehicle's purchase or bought via subscriptions. Tesla's system is currently $99 a month, according to its website. Rivian's is $49.99 a month or $2,500 to purchase for the lifetime of a vehicle. GM's is $39.99 a month or $399 a year.

Rivian vs. TeslaThe biggest operational difference between ADAS technologies from Tesla and Rivian is their ability to control the vehicle on nonhighway streets with traffic lights and signs.

Rivian's system currently detects those roadway signals, but it does not do anything about them other than alert the driver that they are coming. Meanwhile, Tesla's system handled every signal, interchange and exit ramp I encountered for nearly 200 miles in rural Michigan and downtown Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Based on a decade of experience driving with hands-free ADAS, those two technologies are by far the most advanced. This has not always been the case.

GM, not Tesla, led the development of hands-free highway systems with its Super Cruise, which I initially tested a year before its debut in 2017. But America's largest automaker was slow to roll it out on new vehicles or significantly grow its capabilities other than expanding geographies and making it able to do lane changes.

Ford Motor also quickly caught up to GM on highways, but both continue to lack systems that are capable of hands-free driving on nonhighways. The two automakers are working on that type of technology, including so-called eyes-off capabilities, but they are not expected until 2028.

It's a difficult leap, as Tesla's in-vehicle Grok AI told me during nearly 200 miles of driving in a 2025 Tesla Model Y: "Highways have predictable lanes, speed, fewer pedestrians and clear markings, making sensor fusion and path prediction simpler. City streets bring chaos, intersections, bikes, peds, construction and ambiguous rules that challenge even top AI vision systems."

Challenging for some more than others. During my drives in the Model Y, the vehicle was essentially controlling itself for multiple hours and dozens of miles without intervention on highway and nonhighway roads.

It somewhat effortlessly handled several traffic circles, also known as roundabouts, and parked for me multiple times when arriving at or near destinations, including parallel parking. It also managed a semitruck blocking half a lane on a two-lane road as well as pretty complex construction zones, with Tesla's ADAS sensing each barrel or cone.

The Rivian technology handled highway driving very well with no intervention outside of exit ramps and, at times, construction zones. It also isn't able to change lanes on its own yet, which the company promises is coming soon.

When I asked Rivian about several of my experiences, the company said its vehicles can detect construction objects but it does not always display them on the in-vehicle screen. Its system also still needs assistance in certain locations, such as roundabouts.

Read more CNBC auto newsGM to launch proprietary in-vehicle AI system later this yearWhy Ford believes its 10.2% July U.S. sales decline was still a ‘good’ monthAre Americans ready to embrace tiny 'cars'? These companies think soFerrari CEO says he 'would not change anything' about polarizing Luce EV debutSafety concerns remainAll ADAS technologies — except a Mercedes-Benz system in limited circumstances — still need drivers to monitor the systems, even if they can largely control the vehicle without human intervention for hundreds of miles.

With the rise of "hands-off" technology, industry insiders and regular people alike have raised concerns about driver inattentiveness. Automakers have been largely trying to fight that with driver-facing cameras. But concerns remain about the ADAS handover back to a driver as well as on people over-relying on the systems.

YouTube is filled with examples of drivers misusing such systems, particularly Tesla products, as well as videos of ADAS doing human-like moves but also malfunctioning and needing assistance.

The handover from ADAS to humans can be abrupt and lead to dire circumstances if drivers aren't attentive enough to immediately retake control of the vehicle.

There's also little regulation for the systems, with each company taking different approaches.

"I hope that we can even exceed the Tesla system because of our investments in a more robust sensor stack," Rivian's Philbin said. "We're actually a big believer in multimodal imaging, so cameras and radars, and later on, early next year, lidar as well on the R2."

Rivian's system uses at least 10 high dynamic range cameras, five radars and some map data to assist the vehicle in "seeing" the road. It's also expected to launch vehicles with lidar, or light detection and ranging, that improves a vehicle's "sight." Tesla's system relies on cameras and a "vision-based" setup that some have criticized for not being robust enough, especially under certain conditions.

Tesla's partially automated driving systems have been under scrutiny for many years. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration earlier this year said it was escalating a probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) after identifying several crashes, including one fatal incident in which the system failed to alert drivers appropriately about reduced-visibility conditions, such as sun glare or fog.

Philbin said it's those types of circumstances where noncamera technology, including lidar, can better detect potential hazards and objects. My drives were on clear days without any inclement weather.

Still, despite not having many sensors, Tesla's Grok chatbot — developed by Musk's xAI, which merged with SpaceX earlier this year — also felt its brand has the superior system, which is true for many driving situations, at least for now.

"Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is widely rated as the top advanced driver assistance system in 2026 by sources like Motor Trend and others," Grok AI said. It later added, "Rivian's AI Assistant is solid for voice controls, navigation, and vehicle features in their R1 vehicles, but it's still catching up to more advanced systems like ours and full self-driving capabilities."

As of this writing, Rivian (RIVN +4.03%) stock sits at about $16, giving the company a market value of about $23 billion. For that price, investors get an electric vehicle maker that will deliver perhaps 70,000 vehicles this year, still loses money on them at the gross level, and just started shipping the product its whole investment case rests on.

That last part is why the next three years matter so much. The R2, a smaller and more affordable SUV than Rivian's first models, began reaching customers on June 9. Whether the stock is higher or lower in 2029 comes down to how many R2s the company builds -- and what each one earns.

Image source: Rivian.

The business the R2 is supposed to change Rivian's second-quarter report, released July 30, showed a company heading into the ramp with momentum. Revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.66 billion, and deliveries climbed 14% to 12,194 vehicles, well above the 9,000 to 11,000 management had forecast. That outperformance led the company to raise its full-year delivery outlook to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, from 62,000 to 67,000.

The profit picture is improving, too, though from a low base. Consolidated gross profit came in at $179 million in the second quarter, an 11% margin.

However, the automotive segment itself ran a $36 million gross loss. That's a dramatic improvement from the $335 million automotive gross loss of a year earlier -- helped in part by regulatory credit revenue -- and management said the quarter absorbed approximately $100 million of incremental costs from ramping R2 production. Strip those out, and the vehicle business would have been modestly profitable at the gross level.

What actually carried the quarter was software and services. The segment generated $515 million in revenue, up 37% year over year, with $215 million of gross profit, a 42% margin.

The commercial side keeps scaling, too. Amazon now has more than 40,000 Rivian electric delivery vans on the road.

Still, Rivian remains deeply unprofitable overall. The company expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss of $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion, and it plans capital spending of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion this year. A $5.3 billion pile of cash and short-term investments at the end of June, since topped up by a stock sale in early July, is what funds the ramp.

The math three years out So, what could the business look like in 2029?

Rivian says its two U.S. plants (Normal, Illinois, today, plus a Georgia site backed by a Department of Energy loan of up to $4.5 billion) support capacity growth to as much as 515,000 vehicles per year in later phases. I wouldn't model anything close to full utilization by 2029. But a path from about 70,000 deliveries to somewhere near 200,000 over three years relies on expansion the company is already building, not on new ideas.

Suppose that volume arrives. At an assumed blended price of around $60,000 (R2s at the lower end of the lineup, R1s and commercial vans above it), 200,000 vehicles would produce automotive revenue near $12 billion. Add a software and services business compounding at anything like its current 37% rate, and total revenue could reach $17 billion or so, against about $6.6 billion annualized today.

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On that math, today's market value works out to about 1.4 times that future revenue -- not a demanding multiple, if the vehicles earn money by then.

That "if" is, to me, the entire investment case. A carmaker that still loses money on its vehicles at 70,000 units has to prove that volume fixes the problem. Management's case is that shared production lines in Normal spread fixed costs across more vehicles as R2 scales. The second half of this year offers the first evidence either way.

The downside is just as easy to sketch, though. EV demand can wobble, and ramps can slip. A company running an adjusted EBITDA loss near $2 billion a year has less room for error than its cash balance suggests -- and Rivian priced a 75 million-share stock offering as recently as early July.

My answer to the three-year question: The stock could be meaningfully higher if R2 volume shows up with a real gross margin attached, because the current valuation arguably isn't pricing in much success. But this remains a speculative stock, not a proven business. I'd treat it accordingly -- and only with money I could afford to see shrink.

The robotaxi industry is still in the early stages, but it could expand rapidly over the next decade. Investors are tipping several companies to emerge as leaders in this market, including Alphabet (GOOG -4.05%) (GOOGL -4.03%), which owns Waymo, and Tesla (TSLA -1.77%), which has ramped up its fleet of robotaxis over the past year. However, Rivian (RIVN -1.27%), an electric vehicle (EV) maker, could be a surprise winner in this industry, given the deal it signed with Uber Technologies (UBER -5.29%) earlier this year. Here's why investors shouldn't discount Rivian's chances in the race to the top in the robotaxi market.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A wide range of possible outcomes In March, Rivian agreed to deliver up to 50,000 autonomous units of its new R2 models to Uber through 2030. In exchange, Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, including $550 million this year. This is a great deal for Rivian for several reasons. First, the company receives a substantial cash infusion that will help it achieve certain goals. Notably, the EV maker needs to train its self-driving software and achieve full autonomy (at least in certain regions) with its R2 for this partnership to be as lucrative as possible.

That will require some work and some money. And if Rivian can achieve full autonomy in time, it will likely have a positive impact on its business beyond its deal with Uber. It could increase demand for its cars among other large corporations or generate higher recurring revenue from self-driving software subscriptions. Second, Uber is one of the leading ride-hailing platforms. It benefits from a strong brand name, a large user ecosystem, and a deep moat due to network effects.

Uber could leverage these advantages to quickly scale its robotaxi service. If Uber's robotaxis become very popular, the company may order even more EVs from Rivian.

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But what happens if Rivian fails to achieve full autonomy in time? The company's shares will likely fall off a cliff. The good news is that Rivian is finally delivering its R2 to customers, and the more of them it has on the road, the more data it will have to train its self-driving software. The R2 has a much more approachable price than Rivian's previous models and is a direct competitor to Tesla's Model Y, the best-selling car in the world (EV or not) for three years running.

Higher sales volume may more than offset the lower per-unit price of the R2, leading to steady revenue growth for Rivian over the next few years. Rivian is also expanding its manufacturing footprint. These efforts may help the company achieve lower per-unit manufacturing costs and help boost its margins. However, if the R2 flops, the company's shares will plummet. So, Rivian's medium-term outlook hinges on several things going just right. If they do, expect strong returns. If they don't, the stock will underperform broader equities. Investors should keep that in mind before initiating a position.

Key Takeaways Rivian began external R2 deliveries in June, with Launch Edition conversions above expectations.RIVN plans a second R2 shift by quarter-end, with added volume mainly expected in the fourth quarter.Rivian raised its 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 vehicles despite ongoing cost pressures. Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) framed the second quarter of 2026 as the start of its R2-led growth phase, with early demand running ahead of internal expectations.

The call also centered on manufacturing discipline, launch costs and the fourth-quarter production level needed to move R2 toward positive gross profit. Management said the outcome depends on matching demand with supplier readiness and cost absorption.

Rivian Sets R2 as the Core Growth EngineFounder and CEO Robert Scaringe said external R2 deliveries began in June and that more than 57,000 demo drives set a company record.

Robert Scaringe said reservation-to-order conversion for the $58,000 Launch Edition was meaningfully above expectations, with a significant number of first-time electric-vehicle buyers. He said buyers came from a broad range of brands and vehicle types.

In the Q&A session, Scaringe told a Needham analyst that most non-converting customers were waiting for other configurations, including premium and standard trims, due in early 2027.

RIVN Maps a Back-Half Production RampChief operations officer Javier Varela said Rivian expects to add a second R2 shift by the end of the third quarter, but its volume contribution should arrive mainly in the fourth quarter.

Scaringe identified supplier readiness as the main constraint, noting that production can be limited by the slowest vendor.

Scaringe said fewer build combinations, limited color choices and extensive validation builds make the R2 launch more controlled than the R1 rollout.

Rivian Defends Its Margin PathChief financial officer Claire McDonough reaffirmed that R2 should reach positive gross profit at Rivian’s 2026 exit rate as higher output improves fixed-cost absorption.

Automotive gross loss narrowed to $36 million despite about $100 million of incremental R2 ramp costs, including expedited freight, temporary supplier premiums and unabsorbed expenses. Software and Services produced $215 million of gross profit at a 42% margin.

When a UBS analyst pressed on breakeven volume, McDonough said fourth-quarter production provides a reasonable near-term benchmark for normalized costs, though R2 will not be fully ramped.

RIVN Raises 2026 Guidance Amid Cost PressureRIVN raised 2026 delivery guidance by 3,000 units to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, implying 42,400 to 47,400 second-half deliveries weighted toward the fourth quarter.

McDonough said adjusted EBITDA loss guidance improved to $1.8-$2 billion, while capital spending guidance fell to $1.7-$1.8 billion.

McDonough said regulatory-credit revenues and higher volumes supported the outlook, while raw-material, memory and logistics costs remain offset. Third-quarter automotive gross profit will face a full quarter of R2 ramp costs before scale benefits emerge.

Rivian Links Autonomy to Future RevenuesScaringe said point-to-point assisted driving remains targeted for year-end, followed by hands-off, eyes-off capability in 2027 and Level 4 functionality in 2028.

Scaringe said Autonomy+ take rates are trending positively, and expanded features could support higher pricing, though management did not disclose adoption levels.

McDonough expects autonomy spending to rise in the second half, driven mainly by GPU sourcing for model training. Scaringe said RAP1 and third-generation autonomy hardware remain on track for late 2026.

RIVN Keeps Execution at the ForefrontScaringe and McDonough combined confidence in R2 demand with caution regarding supplier performance, second-shift readiness and the third-quarter cost burden. The operating agenda remains tightly tied to R2.

The company reported a loss of 47 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 65 cents. Revenues of $1.65 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.59 billion, while consolidated gross margin reached 11%.

What the Zacks Signals SayRIVN carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The framework reserves its strongest near-term combinations for Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) stocks paired with A or B Style Scores. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

RIVN’s Growth Score of B and Momentum Score of B are favorable, while the Value Score of F and VGM Score of D weaken the combined style profile. The Zacks Rank can change as analyst estimates are revised after the just-reported results.

Rivian Automotive stock is surging to new heights today. Why are RIVN shares rallying? Q2 Loss Narrows On Strong Revenue GrowthRivian reported a loss per share of 63 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 74 cents loss. In addition, it reported revenue of $1.65 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.50 billion.

Consolidated revenue rose 27% year-over-year, driven by a 14% increase in delivery volumes and strong performance from the company’s software and services segment. Gross profit came in at $179 million, a $385 million improvement over the same quarter last year. Net loss attributable to common stockholders narrowed to $837 million from $1.115 billion in the prior-year period.

R2 SUV Rollout Sparks Optimism Despite Ongoing LossesRivian began external deliveries of its R2 SUV on June 9 and hosted more than 57,000 demo drives during the quarter, a company record. The company ended the quarter with approximately $5.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.

“This quarter we began external deliveries of R2. I believe R2 will be a game changer for our customers and a driver of Rivian’s long-term growth and profitability,” said RJ Scaringe, Rivian Founder and CEO.

Rivian Shares Edge HigherRIVN Price Action: At the time of publication, Rivian shares are trading 3.15% higher at $17.36, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.47 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.65. This compares to a loss of $0.8 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +27.69%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this a manufacturer of motor vehicles and passenger cars would post a loss of $0.6 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.55, delivering a surprise of +8.33%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Rivian Automotive, which belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, posted revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.25%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.3 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Rivian Automotive shares have lost about 17.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 6.9%.

What's Next for Rivian Automotive?While Rivian Automotive has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Rivian Automotive was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.65 on $1.96 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and -$2.37 on $7.19 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Automotive - Domestic is currently in the top 38% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, Xos, Inc. (XOS - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.

This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.60 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +34.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Xos, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $12.14 million, down 34% from the year-ago quarter.

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Rivian Automotive reduced its 2026 spending plans and slightly narrowed its previously forecasted losses this year as the company reported second-quarter results Thursday.

The revised guidance now includes adjusted losses between $1.8 billion and $2 billion, down from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, and capital expenditures of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion, down from $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion. It reconfirmed a previously raised delivery target of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles to customers.

Rivian said the $250 million reduction in capital spending at the mid-point was enabled by "project efficiencies and timing of spend," which the automaker previously increased to allow for added investments in new technologies such as its hands-free driving system.

Here's how Rivian performed in the second quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:

Loss per share: 47 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 63 cents expectedRevenue: $1.66 billion vs. $1.51 billion expectedThe company's gross profit, which is closely watched by investors, was $179 million compared to a loss of $206 million a year earlier. That included a $36 million loss for its automotive segment and a $215 million profit for its software and services division.

Rivian's second-quarter revenue included $1.14 billion from automotive and $515 million from software and services. The results were slightly higher than its pre-released second-quarter revenue expectations of between $1.55 billion and $1.65 billion that were released last month in conjunction with disclosing a public offering of 75 million shares of its Class A common stock.

Automotive revenue increased 23% year-over-year, primarily due to a 14% increase in vehicle deliveries and a $103 million increase in revenues related to regulatory credits, the company said.

Rivian's net loss attributable to common stockholders during the second quarter was $837 million, or 63 cents a share, a $278 million, or 34 cent per share, improvement compared with the second quarter of 2025.

Rivian previously said the raised delivery guidance was driven by higher deliveries during the second quarter of its electric delivery van and flagship R1 products.

The company also started delivering its midsize R2 SUV during the quarter. It's ramping up production of that vehicle at its sole production plant in Normal, Illinois, which has capacity to produce 160,000 of the vehicles annually.

"Incredibly excited with R2 now getting into customers' hands, and the overall feedback and response to the product has just been outstanding," Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC's Phil LeBeau on Thursday. "And so, of course, that's a major step for us on our path to profitability."

Scaringe has said Rivian will reach profitability this year on a per-unit production basis with the R2, a smaller and less expensive sibling to its current luxury R1s SUV. But he said the company needs more scale than the 160,000 units already planned for the vehicle at its current plant in Normal, Illinois, to achieve profitability.

Rivian on Thursday reconfirmed its cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments balance was an estimated $5.3 billion, up from $4.8 billion to end the first quarter.

The company said later this year it expects to receive $1 billion in non-recourse debt financing from its software deal with Volkswagen Group and an additional $250 million equity investment from a separate partnership with Uber.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -0.79%) will next report earnings post-market on Thursday, July 30. Shares in the electric vehicle (EV) company have traded sideways in recent months. Will this upcoming event drive the next big move for shares?

I wouldn't bet on it. After all, Rivian already reported delivery numbers earlier this month for the preceding quarter. Barring major changes to guidance or the company's efforts to scale up production of its lower-priced R2 line of vehicles, it's questionable whether earnings represent a turning point for this electric car stock.

That said, for long-term growth stocks like this one, it's best to stay focused on the big picture, rather than near-term volatility.

Image source: Getty Images.

Rivian Automotive Q2 2026 earnings preview Again, investors aren't completely in the dark about how Rivian performed during the quarter ending June 30, 2026. On July 2, the EV maker released its Q2 2026 production and delivery figures. In Q2, Rivian produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 vehicles.

These figures exceeded its prior delivery outlook of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles, largely thanks to the successful launch of the aforementioned R2 vehicle line. Alongside strong delivery figures, management also raised its full-year delivery guidance from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles.

While this may give credence to analyst forecasts calling for a 20% jump in sales during Q2 -- from $1.3 billion to around $1.56 billion -- it's unclear what increased deliveries mean for the bottom line. Per the same analyst forecasts, Rivian is expected to report GAAP losses of $0.78 per share for Q2 2026.

However, as GAAP losses came in far narrower than expected in Q1 2026, with reported losses of $0.30 per share versus a consensus of $0.72 per share, I wouldn't rule out the potential for positive surprises. The same could play out, with any updates to Rivian's full-year financial outlook.

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The best move with this EV stock Even if Rivian reports something surprising, such as far lower-than-expected losses or materially improved full-year guidance, it may not have the bullish impact on shares you might expect. For one, uncertainty about this stock goes beyond whether it can continue to scale up into a profitable automaker.

Whether improved results spark a rebound is another question entirely. As Rivian relies on the dilutive sale of newly issued shares to fund expansion, an increased share count could water down the positive impact of reaching profitability. Investors are still digesting Rivian's recent $1.5 billion capital raise.

Further tapping into this dilutive funding source puts pressure on both areas in the near term while limiting long-term upside. As this key risk persists, existing investors should hold on but wait for further developments regarding growth funding before increasing their positions. Those who have yet to buy Rivian shares may also want to wait until management answers these questions, rather than chasing this automotive stock after a post-earnings rally or pullback.

Rivian Automotive RIVN stock moved 4% higher on Monday after Piper Sandler upgraded the electric vehicle maker ahead of its second-quarter earnings report, citing improving demand, a smoother-than-expected R2 launch and a stronger balance sheet.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter upgraded Rivian to Overweight from Neutral and raised his price target to $20 from $18, implying about 26% upside from Friday's closing price.

Rivian is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Thursday, July 30.

The upgrade comes weeks after Rivian raised its full-year delivery outlook following stronger-than-expected second-quarter production and delivery results, signaling improving momentum for the EV manufacturer.

Potter said Rivian is entering earnings in a stronger position than it was several months ago, pointing to improved vehicle demand and encouraging progress with the company's R2 sport utility vehicle.

According to the analyst, higher gasoline prices and renewed consumer interest in electric vehicles have helped support Rivian's delivery outlook.

He also believes the company has largely avoided the production issues that often accompany new vehicle launches, reducing a key execution risk.

Potter's note said the upgrade rests on “a de-risked balance sheet, a smooth R2 ramp, and an improved demand outlook.”

The analyst described the R2 as a pivotal product for Rivian, with deliveries expected to reach between 20,000 and 25,000 units this year despite a brief paint-related production pause.

The report also highlighted Rivian's vertically integrated software strategy.

As production volumes increase, Potter expects the company to generate more revenue from software and services.

Initial R2 production includes a Launch Package featuring a lifetime subscription to Autonomy+, Rivian's driver-assistance platform that the company plans to offer as a recurring subscription service in the future.

Another key factor behind Piper Sandler's upgrade was Rivian's recent capital raise.

Earlier this month, the company announced plans to sell 75 million shares, raising about $1.5 billion.

Rivian said part of the proceeds would be used to meet equity requirements tied to its US Department of Energy loan agreement.

Potter believes the additional capital reduces the risk of future shareholder dilution while providing funding to support the company's long-term growth plans.

The latest upgrade also marks a significant shift in Potter's long-term view of Rivian.

The analyst initiated coverage after Rivian's 2021 initial public offering with an Overweight rating and a $148 price target before downgrading the stock in 2023 and again in 2025 as funding concerns and a lack of near-term catalysts weighed on the outlook.

In March 2025, Potter lowered Rivian to Neutral, calling it his “favorite Neutral” while identifying the R2 launch as the company's next major catalyst.

He also argued that the Volkswagen joint venture would help strengthen Rivian's balance sheet, a view reflected in Monday's assessment.

Despite the latest upgrade, the new $20 price target remains well below Potter's original $148 target set shortly after Rivian's public listing.

Overall, Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus rating on Rivian based on seven Buy ratings, six Hold ratings and four Sell ratings. The average analyst price target of $17.94 implies about 13% upside from current levels.

Rivian has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government in an attempt to claw back a “full refund” on tariffs it paid under President Trump’s “Liberation Day” taxes, which the Supreme Court later ruled unconstitutional.

The automaker joins a long line of companies seeking such refunds. In April, Rivian CFO Claire McDonough said she expected the company stood to reap a refund in the “tens of millions of dollars.”

Rivian’s action comes as the company is in the middle of rolling out its first mass-market SUV, the R2. It expects to ship around 20,000-25,000 of them by the end of this year, and help the company finally reach profitability. Reaching that goal may not happen until 2028, though, as Rivian is plowing a lot of money into developing autonomous vehicles at the moment. The company recently sold shares to raise around $1.3 billion to help pad out its cash balance in the meantime.

The lawsuit, filed on Thursday in the U.S. Court of International Trade, names the U.S. government, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and its commissioner Rodney Scott as defendants. CBP collected the tariffs on behalf of the Trump administration, which tried to justify them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

In a statement to TechCrunch, CBP said that over $121 billion in both “potential and certified refunds have been accepted for processing .” The agency did not comment specifically on the lawsuit.

Earlier this month, the Cato Institute wrote that $71 billion had been paid out, which “suggests that frictions built into” the refund process created “obstacles for importers seeking refunds.”

According to Rivian’s lawsuit, the company wants a guarantee that it will get its money — and the proper amount — back from the government.

“Although the Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs, this separate action remains necessary because importers that have paid IEEPA tariffs, including Plaintiffs, are not guaranteed a refund of amounts previously paid based on the Supreme Court’s decision,” Rivian’s lawyers wrote in the complaint.

Rivian did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters last year after the tariffs were imposed that he expected the cost of each vehicle to rise by “a couple of thousand dollars” as a result. By the end of 2025, he said the company had mitigated the impact to “low hundreds of dollars.”

“The resulting environment of retaliatory trade or other practices or additional trade restrictions or barriers has harmed, and could continue to harm, our ability to obtain necessary raw materials, components and equipment and could harm our ability to sell our products and services at prices customers are willing to pay,” the company wrote in a regulatory filing earlier this year.

Rivian is asking the trade court to declare the tariffs “contrary to law,” issue a refund with interest, and pay any associated court fees.

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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.

About five years ago, there was a mini gold rush in the electric vehicle (EV) industry. It was due to growing infrastructure support and a flood of public and private funding from investors hoping to get their hands on what might be the next Tesla.

This gold rush ended poorly for many involved: from the more well-known Fisker Automotive, which was supposed to rival Tesla, to the lesser-known companies such as Canoo and Lordstown Motors. Even more capable companies, such as Lucid Group (LCID -1.50%), will almost certainly face more funding questions and capital raises within 12 to 18 months.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -1.80%), however, appears to be gaining real traction; here are three reasons to believe in it long-term.

Shareholder dilution While Lucid and Rivian are similar in many ways, one factor that has separated the two is shareholder dilution. Unlike Lucid, Rivian has been able to protect its shareholders from more severe shareholder dilution due to capital discipline and its strategic joint ventures, such as with Volkswagen.

It also helps to have a little luck on your side. Rivian executed one of the largest initial public offerings in U.S. history by raising roughly $13.7 billion in gross proceeds, which gave the young EV maker a long capital runway. In contrast, Lucid entered the public markets through a SPAC merger that had a lighter cash balance to help pave the way forward.

Another example of how the two differ is that Lucid has relied heavily on Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which now owns a controlling stake in the company. While Lucid has repeatedly issued new equity that dilutes existing shareholders, Rivian largely took a different route by leveraging its internal software and electrical stack to ink a $5.8 billion deal with Volkswagen that has helped generate non-dilutive licensing and convertible loans.

RIVN Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts

You can see in the graph above that Lucid was expanding its shares outstanding much more, until last year when the EV maker executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, which reduced its share count to proportionately increase its share price, enabling it to remain listed on the Nasdaq. That's not a great situation to be in. Make no mistake, when considering either of these EV stocks long-term, Rivian is certainly more enticing, even considering only its lesser shareholder dilution.

R2 is a crucial pivot To say that Rivian's R2 is a crucial pivot point for the business would be an understatement. The R2 marks Rivian's transition from luxury-niche EVs to mass-market production and scale. The young EV maker might not even get enough credit for the efforts it has taken to improve unit economics, which have helped power the company to its first full-year gross profit.

Rivian is taking what it's learned from that process and applying it to the R2. And it's expecting to reduce the manufacturing cost per vehicle by 50% compared to even previous improvements on the R1. Rivian's goal was to aim for nearly $7,500 in gross profit per vehicle; here are a couple of unique examples of how it can drive toward that target:

Battery and drive units: The new "Maximus" drive unit contains 41% to 43% fewer parts than the previous Enduro system. Electronics and harnessing: Rivian cut expensive high-voltage cabling down by a significant 70% and simplified its computing architecture by removing 2.3 miles of wiring, cutting down connectors by 60%, and reducing weight by 40 lbs. Rivian even adjusted the R2 to a unibody structure, which reduced costs by 44% and weight by 37% compared to the R1 body-on-frame style.

Image source: Rivian.

Combine those examples, and many more, with growing scale as the lower price tag enables a mainstream consumer to purchase the R2, and it should have investors feeling optimistic that Rivian can one day be a self-funding and profitable company. Though it still has a long way to go.

High-margin potential Circling back to Rivian's lucrative joint venture with Volkswagen, it's important for investors to understand the potential of this business. Typically, legacy global automakers like Volkswagen buy parts from suppliers and write their own coding, but the deal with Rivian implies that Volkswagen has admitted its deficiencies in doing so and essentially gave up on its in-house software division.

Volkswagen isn't just buying Rivian motors or interior infotainment screens, either; Rivian is essentially selling its German joint venture partner its vehicle nervous system, operating system, and zonal architecture. This has given Rivian the potential to transform from a pure hardware manufacturer into a business that includes high-margin software and intellectual property licenses.

Thanks in large part to Volkswagen's partnership, Rivian's software segment operates at roughly 37% gross margin, which has become a crucial way to offset early-stage scaling and expenses.

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What it all means Rivian still has a long road ahead to reward long-term shareholders, but these three reasons should give investors the belief that it can achieve that vision. Rivian has separated itself from rivals such as Lucid with capital discipline and the avoidance of severe shareholder dilution, tapped into high-margin software sales and cost-sharing with partnerships, and made significant progress on improving R2 unit economics ahead of the scale it hopes to soon build.

Rivian's road will still be tough, but it certainly has some unique attributes that separate it from many rivals.

July 7 was a rough day for Rivian Automotive (RIVN +3.03%) shareholders. The upstart electric vehicle (EV) company saw its stock plunge 18.1%, its largest single-day decline in almost two years. Rivian had announced only days earlier that it topped its second-quarter guidance with 12,194 deliveries, and raised its full-year delivery outlook from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles.

The culprit? A new common-stock offering that underlines the reality that Rivian is still losing a ton of money and needs substantial additional capital to continue growing. It can be tempting to buy Rivian stock on this dramatic decline. Here's why that's probably not a good idea in this case.

This sell-off was about more than the share dilution Rivian sold 75 million new shares at $15.50 per share, raising approximately $1.2 billion in gross proceeds. The company also granted the underwriters an option to purchase an additional 11.25 million shares of common stock. The funds are for general corporate purposes and equity contributions for a loan arrangement with the U.S. Department of Energy.

Image source: Rivian.

Beyond the share dilution the new shares will cause, the offering priced shares at $15.50, well below the open-market price at the time. Rivian and institutional buyers agreeing to the offering at such a deep discount probably doesn't send a great message to the market about how the parties involved view the stock. But most of all, the offering is a harsh reminder of how far Rivian still has to go to remain financially viable. The company has burned over $3 billion in free cash flow over the past four quarters alone.

Buy the dip? No thanks Rivian trades at a valuation that is completely disconnected from most of the automotive industry. The most successful automotive companies broadly trade at under 1 times sales. Rivian trades at 3.8 times sales, even after the stock's sell-off. Although Tesla is an exception, it's hardly fair to compare it with Rivian, since Tesla has Elon Musk and has shifted its business focus to autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, and humanoid robotics.

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The reason why automotive companies trade at such low valuations is the same reason Rivian still needs to raise money. Manufacturing vehicles, whether EVs or regular combustion models, is very capital-intensive. Factories are expensive to build, and they need to operate at nearly full capacity to produce vehicles profitably.

If Rivian continues to sell more vehicles, its margins should improve as volumes rise. Rivian's just not there yet. It's probably wise to stay on the sidelines until Rivian's valuation drops closer to that of other automotive stocks or the company grows enough that it no longer needs additional funding.

Companies like Rivan and Lucid could be exempt from the price caps that bar EVs from qualifying for California's new incentive program. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images California is launching a new incentive program for first-time electric vehicle buyers that gives companies like Rivian and Lucid an edge.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill, SB 168, into law on Monday that will give first-time EV customers an instant incentive of $3,500 on a new vehicle and $1,750 toward a used one at the point of sale.

The program, called MyFirstEV, is expected to launch this summer, though the state did not announce an exact start date. A spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which will administer the statewide program, told Business Insider that the agency expects to announce participating automakers next month.

The bill has a price cap for EVs to qualify. New vehicles can't have a manufacturer's suggested retail price above $50,000, while used vehicles can't sell for more than $25,000.

However, the law exempts EV makers headquartered in California that manufacture only zero-emission vehicles, allowing companies like Rivian and Lucid to participate in the incentive program regardless of vehicle prices. Rivian is headquartered in Irvine, while Lucid is based in Newark.

Both companies sell vehicles priced well above the bill's caps. Rivian's R1T truck has a starting price of under $80,000. Lucid primarily sells luxury EVs, with the Air sedan starting at around $71,000.

A Lucid spokesperson told Business Insider that it intends to participate in the statewide program and that Lucid Air and Gravity vehicles will be eligible for California customers.

"We see this as a meaningful opportunity to help make advanced electric vehicles more accessible to California buyers," the spokesperson said, adding that the company "applauds the inclusion of the exemption."

Although Tesla manufactures the Model 3 and Model Y at its Fremont factory and maintains an engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, it would be excluded from the exemption. The company moved its corporate headquarters from California to Austin in 2021.

The CARB spokesperson confirmed that Lucid and Rivian could qualify for the exemption, while Tesla would be subject to the price caps.

Tesla wouldn't be entirely shut out of the incentive program. Lower-priced versions of the Model 3 and Model Y that fall below the $50,000 cap could qualify if the company chooses to participate.

The CA governor's office presented the program as a replacement for the federal EV tax credit program, which the Trump administration rolled back. Under the now-defunct federal program, EV buyers could get up to $7,500 in incentives.

"Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to pollute our air and surrender the clean car industry to China on a silver platter. California is putting its foot on the accelerator," Newsom said in a statement.

Spokespeople for Rivian and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

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Rivian Automotive stock is building positive momentum. What’s driving RIVN shares up? What Is Rivian’s Planned Stock Offering?Rivian said it plans an underwritten public offering of up to 75 million shares, plus a 30-day option for underwriters to buy up to an additional 11.25 million shares, implying gross proceeds of up to about $1.74 billion if priced near the prior $20.14 close. The company said proceeds are for general corporate purposes, including funding certain equity contributions tied to a U.S. Department of Energy loan-related arrangement.

Rivian ended Q1 with about $4.83 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, and the raise is being framed as balance-sheet reinforcement rather than a pivot away from operations. That cash figure is central to how traders are sizing dilution risk versus runway.

RIVN Stock: Key Technical Levels To WatchAt $18.57, the stock is trading 12.1% above its 20-day SMA ($16.64) and 17.4% above its 200-day SMA ($15.88), which keeps the intermediate trend pointed up after the May swing low. The catch is the bigger-picture overlay: the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA (a "death cross" that occurred in May), so longer-term trend followers may still treat rallies as prove-it moves until that relationship repairs.

Momentum is improving: MACD is above its signal line and the histogram is positive, which typically means downside pressure is fading and the latest upswing is gaining traction versus the prior downswing. In plain terms, MACD being above the signal line often signals buyers are starting to control the pace of the move rather than just reacting to bounces.

From a level-to-level trading view, the next upside test is the $21.00 area, while the chart has a clearer "line in the sand" near the mid-$15s where buyers previously defended the tape.

Key Resistance: $21.00 — a nearby round-number area where rebounds can stall Key Support: $15.50 — sits near the longer-term moving-average zone (200-day EMA at $15.59) where buyers have shown up What Is Rivian Automotive’s Business Model?Rivian is a battery electric vehicle automaker selling vehicles in the U.S. and Canada, with a lineup that includes a luxury truck, a full-size SUV, and a delivery van. It also develops electronic control units and related software for autos in a joint venture with Volkswagen, adding a "platform/software" angle beyond just vehicle sales.

The company plans to begin selling a midsize SUV in 2026, and it delivered over 42,000 vehicles in 2025, so funding and production cadence are central to the story. That’s why the proposed equity raise is a double-edged catalyst: it can extend liquidity for growth initiatives, but it also raises dilution concerns that can cap upside if demand for the deal is soft.

RIVN Earnings Preview: July 2026 ExpectationsLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 30, 2026 (confirmed) earnings report.

EPS Estimate: Loss of 79 cents (Up from Loss of 97 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $1.44 Billion (Up from $1.30 Billion YoY) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $20.47. Recent analyst moves include:

UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $17.00) (July 9) BNP Paribas: Outperform (Raises Target to $24.00) (July 8) Jefferies: Hold (Raises Target to $17.00) (July 7) RIVN Stock Price Movement on FridayRIVN Stock Price Activity: Rivian Automotive shares were up 2.70% at $18.61 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Karen Boone, a director at Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN +8.70%), sold 20,000 shares of Class A Common Stock on July 6, 2026, according to an SEC Form 4 filing.

Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value$400,000Shares sold20,000Post-transaction shares (total)225,794Post-transaction shares (directly held)115,794Post-transaction shares (indirectly held)110,000Post-transaction value~$4.6 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($20.00); post-transaction value based on July 6, 2026 market close ($20.14).

Key questionsHow does this transaction align with the director's total equity exposure?
Boone reduced her indirect stake by 15%, which accounted for an 8% reduction in her total interest as reported in the Form 4. Following this sale, she maintains a combined position of about 226,000 shares, split between 116,000 shares held directly and 110,000 shares held through The Boone Family Trust dated August 6, 2015.What regulatory and contractual frameworks governed the timing of this sale?
The transaction was carried out under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on November 24, 2025, providing a structured mechanism for liquidity. Notably, the sale occurred on the same date the director entered into a new 45-day lock-up agreement with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, utilizing an exception for existing trading plans.What is the company's current valuation and business focus?
Based in Irvine, Rivian Automotive specializes in the design and manufacturing of electric vehicles, including consumer pickup trucks and SUVs, and maintains a commercial van platform in partnership with Amazon.com. As of the July 7 market close, the company has a market capitalization of $20.9 billion, with trailing-12-month revenue of $5.5 billion and a net loss of -$3.5 billion.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-07-07)$16.49Market Capitalization$20.9 billionRevenue (TTM)$5.5 billionNet Income (TTM)-$3.5 billionCompany SnapshotRivian designs, engineers, and manufactures premium electric vehicles, including five-passenger electric pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles for consumers, as well as commercial electric delivery vans developed in partnership with Amazon.com.The company operates a direct-to-consumer sales model across both consumer and commercial segments, generating revenue through vehicle sales and related accessories while scaling production capacity to achieve profitability.Rivian targets affluent individual consumers seeking premium electric vehicles and commercial fleet operators, particularly Amazon, which represents a significant customer base for the company's commercial delivery platform.Rivian Automotive is a vertically integrated electric vehicle manufacturer with TTM revenues of $5.5 billion, positioning it as a significant player in the emerging premium EV segment. The company leverages strategic partnerships, particularly with Amazon, to diversify revenue streams across consumer and commercial markets while building manufacturing scale. With 14,861 employees and operations centered in Irvine, California, Rivian is executing a capital-intensive strategy to achieve profitability through volume production and operational efficiency improvements.

What this transaction means for investorsThis sale ultimately looks like a footnote in a much busier week for Rivian. The trade effectively ran on autopilot under a plan Boone adopted back in November, and at $400,000 it leaves her with roughly $4.6 million in stock. The more telling detail is the lock-up: she signed a fresh 45-day agreement with Goldman Sachs the same day, the kind of housekeeping that accompanies a capital raise, and Rivian filed a common stock offering prospectus on July 6, and three days later, the firm said it had raised an estimated $1.32 billion to help support a financing arrangement with the Department of Energy.

Her sale also landed amid some operational momentum. Second-quarter deliveries hit 12,194, well above guidance of 9,000 to 11,000, and management raised its full-year target to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, crediting "robust growth quarter-over-quarter in EDV and R1." The catch is that Rivian still burns cash, guiding to an adjusted EBITDA loss of up to $2.1 billion this year against $4.84 billion in cash plus $1 billion from Volkswagen.

For long-term investors, skip the sale and watch two numbers: the R2 production ramp and quarterly cash burn. The race between them decides whether today's $20.9 billion valuation ends up looking cheap or generous. The firm reports earnings on July 30.

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About the Author

Jonathan Ponciano is a contributing stock market analyst at The Motley Fool. He has nearly a decade of experience as a financial journalist, most recently as an editor and senior reporter at Forbes focused on markets, technology, and entrepreneurship. Jonathan has also written for Investopedia and the Los Angeles Business Journal. He holds a dual B.A. in Business Journalism and Economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and an M.B.A. from Columbia Business School. A North Carolina native now based in New York City, Jonathan has also lived in Mexico City and Los Angeles.

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rivian Automotive, Inc. (Nasdaq: RIVN) (“Rivian”) today announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 75,000,000 shares of its common stock. In connection with the offering, Rivian expects to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 11,250,000 shares of its common stock, at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. All of the shares to be sold in the offering are to be sold by Rivian. The offering is subject to market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering.

Rivian expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including funding of certain equity contributions pursuant to that certain Amended and Restated Loan Arrangement and Reimbursement and Sponsor Support Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy (the “DOE Loan”).

Goldman Sachs & Co., LLC, Allen & Company LLC, Barclays Capital Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC are acting as joint book-running managers for the proposed offering.

The proposed offering is being made pursuant to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 that became automatically effective upon filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on April 30, 2026. The offering may be made only by means of a prospectus supplement and an accompanying prospectus. The prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus relating to the offering will be filed with the SEC and will be available for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. When available, copies of the prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus relating to the offering may also be obtained by contacting: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Attention: Prospectus Department, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282, Telephone: (866) 471-2526 or via email: [email protected]; Allen & Company LLC, Attention: Prospectus Department, 711 Fifth Avenue, 9th floor, New York, New York 10022, by telephone at (212) 339-2220, or by email at [email protected]; Barclays Capital Inc., c/o Broadridge Financial Solutions, 1155 Long Island Avenue, Edgewood, NY 11717, [email protected], (888) 603-5847; J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, c/o Broadridge Financial Solutions, 1155 Long Island Avenue, Edgewood, New York 11717 or by email at [email protected] and [email protected]; Morgan Stanley, 180 Varick Street, 2nd Floor, New York, NY 10014, Attention: Prospectus Department; or by email at [email protected]; and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, 90 South 7th Street, 5th Floor, Minneapolis, MN 55402, at 800-645-3751 (option #5) or email a request to [email protected].

This press release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities, nor will there be any sale of these securities, in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, sale or solicitation would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

About Rivian

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is an American automotive technology company that develops and manufactures category-defining electric vehicles as well as vertically integrated technologies and services. Through innovation across its electrical architecture, end-to-end software, autonomous driving platform, artificial intelligence, and propulsion, the company creates vehicles that excel at work and play with the goal of accelerating the global transition to zero-emission transportation and energy. Rivian vehicles are manufactured in the United States and are sold directly to consumer and commercial customers. Whether taking families on new adventures or electrifying fleets at scale, Rivian vehicles all share a common goal — preserving the natural world for generations to come.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, without limitation, statements regarding statements regarding the offering and the expected use of proceeds therefrom, which statements are based on current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations discussed in such statements, you can identify forward-looking statements by terms such as “will,” “expects,” or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends that we believe may affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and may differ materially from actual results due to a variety of factors. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, our ability to complete the offering on favorable terms, if at all, general market, political, economic and business conditions which might affect the offering and the important factors discussed in Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” in Rivian’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and its other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Rivian may not consummate the offering described in this press release and, if the offering is consummated, cannot provide any assurances regarding its ability to effectively apply the net proceeds as described above. The forward-looking statements included in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release, and Rivian does not undertake to update the statements included in this press release for subsequent developments, except as may be required by law.

More News From Rivian Automotive, Inc.

The automotive industry has long been plagued with negative narratives. A primary example is that operations are capital intensive and leave automakers with thin margins, which hurts earnings potential and valuations.

But the automotive industry is evolving rapidly to include more software and technology to power automated driving features, advanced infotainment solutions, and over-the-air updates that can lower costs due to no required service center visits -- all while improving the driving experience.

These factors can fundamentally change automakers as investments, and here are two examples of how Rivian Automotive (RIVN +8.41%) and General Motors (GM +0.71%) could generate billions through unique software innovations and strategies.

First up: Rivian Toward the end of 2024, Rivian and Volkswagen partnered to develop a state-of-the-art, software-defined-vehicle (SDV) architecture that could be used across the duo's vehicle portfolios. The initial investment was significant, the potential is massive, and its financial implications are already powering Rivian. Let's dive deeper.

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Volkswagen's initial investment into Rivian was for up to $5 billion, which was quickly bumped to $5.8 billion and would be delivered upon completion of certain objectives and milestones. Upon the late 2024 launch, a $1.3 billion lump-sum investment was sent Rivian's way, followed by an early 2025 $1 billion tranche, a mix of equity and debt, to complete operational milestones. After passing winter testing in the spring of 2026, it unlocked another $1 billion investment from Volkswagen and also established the latter as Rivian's largest shareholder, displacing Amazon.

Investors need only glance at first-quarter 2026 results to see the impact Rivian's software is having on its financials. Consolidated revenue checked in at $1.28 billion, which was largely driven by two segments: automotive and software and services. The former generated $908 million, or a 2% decrease compared to the prior year, while software and services generated $473 million, a 49% increase.

The revenue growth was positive, but the impact on gross profit is arguably more important. The automotive segment gross profit was $62 million during Q1, while the software and services segment gross profit totaled $181 million.

The profitability boost from the software business has already powered the young electric vehicle (EV) maker to a positive gross profit result during Q1 -- superior to rival Lucid Group, which is struggling to improve gross profitability -- and giving investors reason to believe it can one day generate bottom-line profits and become a viable long-term investment.

Keep in mind there's plenty of software business growth from Rivian's partnership with Volkswagen alone, and it opens the door for other traditional automakers to explore potentially lucrative software opportunities with Rivian.

Next up: General Motors General Motors gives investors another angle in how to monetize software innovations. The Detroit automaker expects massive growth from OnStar and Super Cruise subscriptions, and it even has a long-term strategy to help drive this into reality.

Image source: General Motors.

Let's take a look at some real-world data to emphasize the software potential. Last year, GM logged $2.7 billion in realized revenue and $5.4 billion in deferred revenue from OnStar and Super Cruise subscriptions -- healthy growth from $1.7 billion realized and only $200 million deferred as recently as 2020. This business is growing quickly with management expecting those software services to generate $3.1 billion in realized revenue and $7.5 billion in deferred revenue this year.

Investors would be wise not to underestimate how this business -- with margins that could approach 70% gross margin, according to GM -- stands to change GM as an investment in an industry known for low margins. "These software-like margins that are coming in the connected business can actually drive, and potentially over time, dwarf even the wholesale business, which is remarkably strong and remarkably large," CFO Paul Jacobson said, according to Automotive News.

GM is putting its money where its mouth is, too. Beginning with the 2025 model year, every new GM vehicle that rolls off the production line includes an eight-year basic OnStar subscription, and vehicles with Super Cruise will have a three-year subscription built into the price. This is essentially opening the widest funnel top to its software and services businesses, and banks on customers getting accustomed to these, and resubscribing and/or repurchasing them with their next vehicles.

Early evidence is fairly positive. At least 30% of the 35,000 GM drivers with an expiring three-year Super Cruise subscription renewed in 2025.

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What it all means Automakers are quickly evolving with the industry, and vehicles are becoming packed with more software technology and innovations. This is enabling new business models to generate incremental revenue streams, as well as higher margins. Furthermore, in the long term, it could help an industry plagued with paltry price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples to rise as Wall Street acknowledges the more profitable businesses in the years ahead.

Rivian and GM aren't tech stocks, but software could certainly power their stocks higher over the next decade.

Rivian (RIVN 0.98%) officially launched its R2 SUV in the U.S. on June 9. Could this newest car lift Rivian's stock, which trades nearly 80% below its IPO price of $78?

Why the R2 could be a game changer When Rivian went public in 2021, it only sold three electric vehicles: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and custom electric delivery vans for Amazon (and later other companies).

Image source: Rivian Automotive.

The launch editions of the R1T and R1S started at $75,000 and $77,500, respectively, but subsequent versions started at $85,000 to $95,000. Those high prices limited their mainstream appeal, and Rivian's own supply chain constraints throttled its annual production -- which dropped from 57,232 vehicles in 2023 to 42,284 vehicles in 2025.

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The launch version of the R2 starts at $57,990, and Rivian plans to roll out an even cheaper version with a starting price of around $45,000 by the end of 2027. The R2 also costs less to manufacture than the R1T and R1S, so its rising sales should boost Rivian's gross margins.

Rivian expects the R2 to boost its annual deliveries to 62,000-67,000 vehicles this year. If those efforts pay off, analysts expect its revenue to more than triple from 2025 to 2028. If that happens, Rivian's stock-which trades at just three times this year's sales -- could finally stabilize and be revalued as a high-growth EV stock again.

Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.