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The market expects Rithm (RITM - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 28. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis real estate investment trust is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -7.4%.

Revenues are expected to be $1.46 billion, up 19.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.38% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Rithm?For Rithm, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.00%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Rithm will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Rithm would post earnings of $0.53 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.51, delivering a surprise of -3.77%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Rithm doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAnother stock from the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. (COFS - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.88 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -3.3%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $43.1 million, up 0.6% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for ChoiceOne Financial Services has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.27%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that ChoiceOne Financial Services will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Key Takeaways Rithm Capital now spans servicing, lending, asset management, investments and commercial real estate.RITM grew investable assets above $100B as asset management reached about $59B by Q1'26.Rithm Capital faces higher costs, liquidity pressure and mortgage servicing rights volatility. Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM - Free Report) is no longer a narrow mortgage story. The company now blends mortgage origination and servicing, transitional lending, asset management, investment holdings and commercial real estate.

That broader platform gives RITM more earnings levers, but it also makes the stock harder to assess. Scale is visible, while costs, liquidity and rate sensitivity still shape the risk profile.

Rithm Capital Has More Than One Profit LeverRithm Capital reports five operating segments. Origination and Servicing remains the largest, with Newrez providing home loans and buying mortgages from other lenders.

Residential Transitional Lending, mainly through Genesis, adds construction, renovation and bridge loans. Asset Management brings fee-oriented exposure across private credit, real estate, fund liquidity and other alternative strategies.The Investment Portfolio adds exposure to mortgage and consumer credit assets. Commercial Real Estate adds Class A office properties. This mix creates more than one path to earnings.

Why RITM Is Expanding Beyond Mortgage CyclesThe logic is to reduce reliance on one housing or rate backdrop. Between the second quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, Rithm Capital expanded through Newrez, Genesis, Sculptor and Rithm Asset Management, while Crestline and Paramount added breadth.

That growth lifted investable assets beyond $100 billion. Asset management reached roughly $59 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2026, compared with $35 billion a year earlier. A larger asset-management business can make fee-related earnings a bigger part of the model.

How Newrez Still Anchors the Rithm Capital StoryNewrez remains the operating core. In the first quarter of 2026, it generated $273.7 million of pre-tax operating income, up from $249.1 million in the prior quarter.

Servicing scale is central to that earnings base. Servicing unpaid principal balance stood at $850 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, including $257 billion of third-party servicing.

Origination also remains meaningful. Funded production was $15.5 billion in the first quarter, down 18% sequentially but up 31% year over year, while total gain-on-sale margin improved to 1.44% from 1.37%.

Cost initiatives matter because scale is only valuable if margins hold. Servicing costs per loan declined to $51 from $54 in the prior quarter, and management is targeting further reductions through technology and automation.

Where Rithm Capital's Pressure Points RemainThe broader platform has come with a larger cost base. Total expenses were $1.24 billion in the first quarter, up from $419 million in the year-ago period, reflecting Elecor-related depreciation and amortization and higher operating expenses.

Liquidity is another concern. As of March 31, 2026, Rithm Capital had total liquidity of $1.4 billion, below total debt of $39.5 billion, including short-term and long-term debt.

Mortgage servicing rights still create volatility. Nearly 20% of total assets were directly tied to mortgage servicing rights and related financing receivables as of March 31, 2026.

That exposure matters because Rithm Capital reported a $204.2-million negative change in their fair value, net of economic hedges, in the first quarter. Integration is another test, as added scale must outpace fixed-cost pressure.

How Rithm Capital’s Ratings Match a Mixed SetupThe bottom line is that Rithm Capital has built a larger and more diversified financial platform, but the stock remains a balanced case rather than a clean growth story. 

The stock has declined 18.1% over the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 19.9%, reflecting investor caution despite the company’s expanded platform and high dividend yield.

Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The estimate picture also looks point to neutral setup. The Zacks consensus estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has been unchanged over the past month.

Estimate Revision Trend

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RITM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which points to a neutral near-term setup. That fits a stock with visible operating scale and diversification benefits, but also cost, liquidity and rate-related risks that keep the investment case from looking cleaner. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Style Scores reinforce that mixed profile. RITM has a VGM Score of F, Value Score of C, Growth Score of F and Momentum Score of D. Since the Style Scores are designed to complement the Zacks Rank, the weak Growth, Momentum and VGM readings suggest investors are still waiting for stronger evidence that the broader platform can translate into better stock performance. 

Investors tracking Rithm Capital can also compare it with Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT - Free Report) , a real estate finance company focused on commercial real estate debt investments. BXMT offers a useful comparison point because it also carries sensitivity to commercial real estate fundamentals and credit conditions. 

NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF - Free Report) is another relevant peer. The company originates, structures and invests in first mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity and other structured financings tied to commercial real estate and multifamily assets. NREF's narrower real estate finance focus contrasts with Rithm’s broader mix of servicing, lending, asset management and investment portfolio exposure.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE:RITM, “Rithm Capital” or the “Company”) announced today that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) has declared its second quarter 2026 common and preferred stock dividends.

Common Stock Dividend

The Board declared a dividend of $0.25 per share of common stock for the second quarter 2026. The second quarter common stock dividend is payable on July 31, 2026, to shareholders of record on July 2, 2026.

Preferred Stock Dividends

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series A”), the Board declared a Series A dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.6206601 per share, which reflects a rate of 9.715%. The Series A Preferred Stock accrues dividends at a floating rate equal to three-month CME SOFR (plus a spread adjustment of 0.262%) plus a spread of 5.802%.

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s Series B Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series B”), the Board declared a Series B dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.6103101 per share, which reflects a rate of 9.553%. The Series B Preferred Stock accrues dividends at a floating rate equal to three-month CME SOFR (plus a spread adjustment of 0.262%) plus a spread of 5.640%.

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series C”), the Board declared a Series C dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.5674407 per share, which reflects a rate of 8.882%. The Series C Preferred Stock accrues dividends at a floating rate equal to three-month CME SOFR (plus a spread adjustment of 0.262%) plus a spread of 4.969%.

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s 7.000% Series D Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series D”), the Board declared a Series D dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.4375000 per share.

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s 8.750% Series E Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series E”), the Board declared a Series E dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.5468750 per share.

In accordance with the terms of Rithm Capital’s 8.750% Series F Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (“Series F”), the Board declared a Series F dividend for the second quarter 2026 of $0.5468750 per share.

Dividends for the Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D, Series E, and Series F are payable on August 17, 2026, to preferred shareholders of record on August 1, 2026 (with an effective record date of July 31, 2026).

ABOUT RITHM CAPITAL

Rithm Capital Corp. is a global alternative asset manager with significant experience managing credit and real estate assets. Rithm’s integrated platform spans asset-based finance, residential and commercial real estate lending, mortgage servicing rights, and structured credit. Through platforms including Elecor Properties, Newrez, Genesis Capital, Sculptor Capital Management, and Crestline Investors, Rithm employs a unique owner-operator model to drive value for shareholders and investors.

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